強鹿 (DE) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Deere & Company's Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Josh Beal, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加迪爾公司第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在想將電話轉給投資人關係總監 Josh Beal 先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Hello. Good morning. Also on the call today are Josh Jepsen, Chief Financial Officer; Josh Beal, Director of Investor Relations; and Josh Rohleder, Manager of Investor Communications. Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's fourth quarter earnings and spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal year 2024. After that, we'll respond to your questions.

你好。早安.今天參加電話會議的還有財務長 Josh Jepsen；喬許·比爾（Josh Beal），投資者關係總監；喬希‧羅勒 (Josh Rohleder)，投資人溝通經理。今天，我們將仔細研究迪爾第四季的收益，並花一些時間討論我們的市場和我們目前對 2024 財年的展望。之後，我們將回答您的問題。

Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings. First, a reminding -- reminder. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

請注意，我們提供了幻燈片來補充今天早上的電話會議。您可以在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 上存取它們。首先，提醒一下——提醒。此次通話正在網路上進行現場直播，並進行錄音，以供迪爾公司將來傳輸和使用。未經迪爾明確書面同意，嚴禁對本受版權保護的廣播的任何部分進行任何其他使用、錄製或傳輸。電話會議（包括問答環節）的參與者同意，他們在所有媒體上的肖像和言論可以被儲存並用作財報電話會議的一部分。

This call includes forward-looking statements concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to uncertainties, risks, changes in circumstances and other factors that are difficult to predict. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K, Risk Factors in the Annual Form 10-K as updated by reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

本次電話會議包括有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述會受到不確定性、風險、環境變化和其他難以預測的因素的影響。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊包含在公司最新的 8-K 表格、年度 10-K 表格中的風險因素（根據向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告更新）中。

This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings and Events. I will now turn the call over to Josh Rohleder.

此電話會議還可能包括不符合美國公認會計準則 (GAAP) 的財務措施。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比 GAAP 措施的調節，均包含在新聞稿中，並發佈在我們網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的「季度收益和事件」下。我現在將把電話轉給喬許·羅勒德。

Good morning, and an early happy holidays to everyone. John Deere finished the year with an excellent fourth quarter, thanks in part to strong margins of 20.3% for equipment operations. Continued outperformance throughout the year resulted in 16% top line net sales and revenue growth for 2023.

早安，提前祝大家節日快樂。約翰迪爾第四季業績出色，部分歸功於設備營運 20.3% 的強勁利潤率。全年持續表現優異，導致 2023 年淨銷售額和收入成長 16%。

Operating margins came in for the year just shy of 22%, helping generate nearly $12 billion in operating cash flow. Across our businesses, performance was driven by strong market demand, operational execution and improved production costs.

今年的營業利潤率略低於 22%，創造了近 120 億美元的營業現金流。在我們的業務中，強勁的市場需求、營運執行力和生產成本的改善推動了業績的成長。

Looking ahead to 2024, shifting ag market dynamics will lead to a decline in demand. However, we expect to hold the structural gains in profitability achieved over the last few years, delivering expected decrementals of our 2023 baseline financial performance.

展望 2024 年，農業市場動態的變化將導致需求下降。然而，我們預計將維持過去幾年實現的獲利結構性成長，從而實現 2023 年基準財務表現的預期遞減。

Meanwhile, the construction and forestry market demand outlook remains mixed with uncertainty in housing and commercial investments, partially offset by tailwinds from mega projects and infrastructure spending.

同時，建築和林業市場需求前景仍然與住房和商業投資的不確定性交織在一起，部分被大型項目和基礎設施支出的推動所抵消。

Slide 3 opens with the results for fiscal year 2023. Net sales and revenues were up 16% to $61.3 billion, while net sales for equipment operations were also up 16% to $55.6 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $10.2 billion or $34.63 per diluted share.

投影片 3 首先介紹了 2023 財年的業績。淨銷售額和收入成長了 16%，達到 613 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額也成長了 16%，達到 556 億美元。迪爾公司應佔淨利為 102 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 34.63 美元。

Next, fourth quarter results are on Slide 4. Net sales and revenues were down 1% to $15.4 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were down 4% to $13.8 billion. However, net income attributable to Deere & Company increased to $2.4 billion or $8.26 per diluted share.

接下來，第四季業績請見投影片 4。淨銷售額和收入下降 1%，至 154 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額下降 4%，至 138 億美元。然而，迪爾公司應佔淨利潤增至 24 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 8.26 美元。

Moving to Slide 5. We'll review our fourth quarter segment results, starting with our production and precision ag business. Net sales of $6.965 billion were down 6% compared to the fourth quarter last year. This was primarily due to lower shipment volumes, partially offset by price realization. Price realization in the quarter was positive by about 10 points. Currency translation was also positive by about 1 point.

轉向幻燈片 5。我們將回顧第四季度的業績，從我們的生產和精密農業業務開始。淨銷售額為 69.65 億美元，較去年第四季下降 6%。這主要是由於出貨量減少，但部分被價格實現所抵消。本季的價格實現上漲約 10 個百分點。貨幣換算也上漲了約 1 個百分點。

Operating profit was $1.836 billion, resulting in a 26.4% operating margin for the segment. The year-over-year increase in operating profit was primarily due to price realization partially offset by lower shipment volumes and sales mix as well as higher SA&G and R&D spend. Notably, production costs came in favorable for the quarter.

營業利益為 18.36 億美元，該部門的營業利益率為 26.4%。營業利潤年增主要是由於價格實現，但部分被出貨量和銷售組合下降以及 SA&G 和研發支出增加所抵消。值得注意的是，本季的生產成本有利。

Recall that tough fourth quarter year-over-year comps for PPA were expected due to supply chain issues in 2022, which drove late shipments and out-of-season deliveries into the fourth quarter.

回想一下，由於 2022 年的供應鏈問題，預計第四季度 PPA 的同比業績將非常艱難，導致第四季度延遲和淡季交付。

Turning to small ag and turf on Slide 6. Net sales were down 13% and totaling $3.094 billion in the fourth quarter due to lower shipment volumes, partially offset by price realization. Price realization in the quarter was positive by nearly 5 points. Currency was also positive by approximately 1 point.

轉向幻燈片 6 上的小型農業和草坪。由於出貨量下降，第四季度淨銷售額下降 13%，總計 30.94 億美元，但部分被價格實現所抵消。本季的價格實現上漲了近 5 個百分點。貨幣也上漲約 1 點。

For the quarter, operating profit declined year-over-year to $444 million, resulting in a 14.3% operating margin. The decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and mix, along with higher SA&G and R&D expenses, partially offset by price realization and production costs.

本季營業利潤年減至 4.44 億美元，營業利益率為 14.3%。下降的主要原因是出貨量和產品組合減少，以及 SA&G 和研發費用增加，但部分被價格實現和生產成本抵消。

Please flip to Slide 7 for the fiscal year 2024 ag and turf industry outlook. We expect large ag equipment industry sales in the U.S. and Canada to decline 10% to 15%, reflecting softening sales on the heels of 3 years of strong demand, coupled with moderating farm fundamentals and high interest rates weighing on discretionary equipment purchases.

請翻至幻燈片 7，了解 2024 財年農業和草坪產業前景。我們預計美國和加拿大的大型農業設備產業銷售額將下降 10% 至 15%，反映出三年強勁需求之後銷售疲軟，加上農業基本面放緩和高利率對可自由支配的設備購買造成壓力。

Headwinds will be tempered by healthy farm balance sheets declining input costs, supportive fleet fundamentals and continued profitability following record years. For small ag and turf in the U.S. and Canada, industry demand is estimated to be down 5% to 10%. The dairy and livestock segment continues to remain steady, thanks to elevated protein and hay prices. This is offset by subdued demand in the turf and compact utility tractor markets, which are closely tied to single-family home sales and home improvement spending, both of which remain under pressure from higher interest rates.

健康的農場資產負債表、不斷下降的投入成本、支持性的船隊基本面以及創紀錄年份的持續盈利能力將緩解逆風。對於美國和加拿大的小型農業和草坪業，產業需求預計將下降 5% 至 10%。由於蛋白質和乾草價格上漲，乳製品和畜牧業繼續保持穩定。這被草坪和緊湊型公用拖拉機市場需求疲軟所抵消，這些市場與單戶住宅銷售和家居裝修支出密切相關，而這兩個市場仍面臨利率上升的壓力。

Shifting to Europe. The industry is forecasted to be down around 10%. Farm fundamentals in the region continue to be mixed with opposing dynamics between Eastern and Western Europe. Eastern Europe continues to be impacted by grain inflows from Ukraine, driving down commodity prices, while Western Europe remains profitable with favorable grain prices and declining input costs, stabilizing equipment demand in 2024.

轉移到歐洲。預計該行業將下降 10% 左右。該地區的農業基本面繼續與東歐和西歐之間的對立動態混合在一起。東歐持續受到烏克蘭糧食流入的影響，壓低大宗商品價格，而西歐則憑藉有利的糧食價格和不斷下降的投入成本保持盈利，從而穩定了2024年的設備需求。

Dairy and livestock risks have also abated in recent months with livestock prices forecasted roughly flat after coming down from record highs in early 2023 and dairy and cash flow beginning to bottom.

近幾個月來，乳製品和牲畜風險也有所減弱，預計牲畜價格在從 2023 年初的歷史高點回落後大致持平，乳製品和現金流開始觸底。

In South America, we expect industry sales of tractors and combines to be down about 10%, moderated by strong headwinds during 2023. Brazil, in particular, was challenged with political uncertainty early on and a delayed government ag financing plan announcement. Coupled with already high interest rates and lower commodity prices that reduced farm profitability, the cumulative impact of these headwinds ultimately led to slower retail sales in the second half of 2023. This has been exacerbated most recently by severe dryness in Northern Brazil and flooding in the South to start the 2024 planting season.

在南美洲，我們預計拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷售將下降約 10%，受到 2023 年強勁阻力的影響。尤其是巴西，早期就面臨政治不確定性和政府農業融資計劃推遲公佈的挑戰。再加上已經很高的利率和較低的大宗商品價格降低了農場的盈利能力，這些不利因素的累積影響最終導致2023 年下半年零售銷售放緩。最近巴西北部的嚴重乾旱和巴西北部的洪水加劇了這種情況。南方開始 2024 年種植季節。

Across the rest of South America, elevated interest rates and heightened economic uncertainty, primarily in Argentina, are further dampening expectations. Industry sales in Asia are also projected to be down moderately, notably with India, the world's largest tractor market by units, down around 5%.

在南美洲其他地區，利率上升和經濟不確定性加劇（主要是在阿根廷）進一步抑制了預期。亞洲的工業銷售預計也將小幅下降，尤其是全球最大拖拉機市場印度，下降約 5%。

Turning to our segment forecast on Slide 8. We anticipate production in precision ag net sales to be down between 15% and 20% in fiscal year 2024. The forecast assumes approximately 1.5 points of positive price realization and flat currency translation.

轉向我們在投影片 8 上的細分市場預測。我們預計 2024 財年精密農業淨銷售額的產量將下降 15% 至 20%。該預測假設價格實現正值約 1.5 個百分點，貨幣換算持平。

Segment operating margin forecast for the full fiscal year is between 23% and 24%, reflecting our ability to sustain gains in structural profitability. Slide 9 gives our forecast for the small ag and turf segment. We expect fiscal year '24 net sales to be down between 10% and 15%. This includes about 1 point of positive price realization and flat currency translation. The segment's operating margin is projected to be between 15% and 16%.

整個財年的部門營業利潤率預測在23%至24%之間，反映了我們維持結構性獲利能力成長的能力。幻燈片 9 給出了我們對小型農業和草坪細分市場的預測。我們預計 24 財年淨銷售額將下降 10% 至 15%。這包括大約 1 個點的正價格實現和固定貨幣換算。該部門的營業利潤率預計在 15% 至 16% 之間。

Shifting to construction and forestry on Slide 10. Price realization and higher shipment volumes, both contributed to an 11% increase in net sales for the quarter to $3.742 billion. Price realization in the quarter was positive by over 6 points. This was supported by just over 1 point of positive currency translation.

投影片 10 轉向建築和林業。價格實現和出貨量增加均導致本季淨銷售額成長 11%，達到 37.42 億美元。本季的價格實現上漲超過 6 個百分點。這得到了略高於 1 個百分點的正貨幣兌換的支持。

Operating profit increased to $516 million, resulting in a 13.8% operating margin. Favorable price realization more than offset higher production costs and unfavorable currency exchange during the quarter.

營業利益增至 5.16 億美元，營業利益率為 13.8%。有利的價格實現足以抵銷本季較高的生產成本和不利的貨幣兌換。

Slide 11 provides our 2024 construction and forestry industry outlook. Industry sales for earthmoving equipment in the U.S. and Canada are expected to be down 5% to 10%, while compact construction equipment in the U.S. and Canada is expected to be flat to down 5%. While end market segments vary, oil and gas continues to be stable. And while housing starts and non-res investments require caution due to the current interest rate environment, U.S. infrastructure and mega project spending supports continued equipment investment. Global forestry markets are expected to be down around 10% as all global markets continue to be challenged. Global road building markets are forecasted to be roughly flat, reflective of continued strong infrastructure spending in the U.S., offset by softening in Europe.

幻燈片 11 提供了我們對 2024 年建築和林業行業的展望。美國和加拿大土方設備的行業銷售額預計將下降 5% 至 10%，而美國和加拿大的緊湊型建築設備預計將持平至下降 5%。儘管終端市場各不相同，但石油和天然氣仍保持穩定。儘管由於當前的利率環境，新屋開工和非再生能源投資需要謹慎，但美國基礎設施和大型專案支出支持持續的設備投資。由於全球所有市場持續面臨挑戰，全球林業市場預計將下降 10% 左右。全球道路建設市場預計將大致持平，反映出美國基礎設施支出持續強勁，但被歐洲疲軟所抵消。

Continuing with our C&F segment outlook on Slide 12. 2024 net sales are forecasted to be down around 10%. Our net sales guidance for the year includes about 1.5 points of positive price realization and flat currency translation. The segment's operating margin is projected to be between 17% and 18%, reflecting the continued structural shift in profitability for CNS.

繼續我們在幻燈片 12 上對 C&F 細分市場的展望。預計 2024 年淨銷售額將下降 10% 左右。我們今年的淨銷售指導包括約 1.5 個百分點的正價格實現和固定的貨幣換算。該部門的營業利潤率預計在 17% 至 18% 之間，反映出 CNS 獲利能力的持續結構性轉變。

And ultimately, let's transition to our financial service operations on Slide 13. Worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere & Company was $190 million for the fourth quarter. The year-over-year decline was mainly due to unfavorable derivative market valuation adjustments, coupled with less favorable financing spreads and a higher provision for credit losses. These factors were partially offset by income earned on a higher average portfolio.

最後，讓我們轉向投影片 13 上的金融服務業務。第四季歸屬於迪爾公司的全球金融服務淨利為 1.9 億美元。年比下降的主要原因是衍生性商品市場估值調整不利，加上融資利差較差以及信用損失撥備較高。這些因素被較高平均投資組合所賺取的收入部分抵消。

For fiscal year 2024, the net income forecast is $770 million. Results are expected to be higher year-over-year, primarily due to income earned on a higher average portfolio and a nonrepeating onetime accounting correction that occurred in 2023. These will be partially offset by less favorable financing spreads and lower gains on operating lease residual values.

2024財年，淨利預測為7.7億美元。預計業績將同比增長，主要是由於平均投資組合賺取的收入較高以及2023 年發生的非重複性一次性會計更正。這些結果將被不太有利的融資利差和經營租賃剩餘收益下降所部分抵消價值觀。

Finally, Slide 14 outlines our guidance for net income, our effective tax rate and operating cash flow. For fiscal year 2024, our full year net income forecast is expected to be between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion, demonstrating executional discipline despite increasing pressure from industry headwinds.

最後，幻燈片 14 概述了我們對淨利潤、有效稅率和營運現金流的指導。對於 2024 財年，我們的全年淨利潤預測預計在 77.5 億美元至 82.5 億美元之間，儘管行業逆風的壓力越來越大，但仍展現了執行紀律。

Next, our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate between 24% and 26%. Lastly, cash flow from equipment operations is projected to be in the range of $8 billion to $8.5 billion. To close, our ability to generate approximately $8 billion in net income at near mid-cycle sales levels in fiscal year '24 is a testament to the positive structural impacts we've seen from executing our strategy.

接下來，我們的指導方針納入了 24% 至 26% 之間的有效稅率。最後，設備營運產生的現金流預計在 80 億至 85 億美元之間。最後，我們能夠在 24 財年以接近週期中期的銷售水準產生約 80 億美元的淨利潤，這證明了我們在執行策略時所看到的正面的結構性影響。

This now concludes our formal remarks. Let's turn to a few key topics of interest before opening the line for Q&A. I'd like to start with the year-end review before we jump to 2024. Not only did we have a record fourth quarter in terms of net income, but we finished the full year with net sales and revenues as well as net income, eclipsing the $60 billion and $10 billion mark, respectively.

我們的正式發言到此結束。在開始問答之前，讓我們先討論幾個感興趣的關鍵主題。在我們跳到 2024 年之前，我想從年終回顧開始。我們不僅在淨利潤方面創造了創紀錄的第四季度，而且我們還以淨銷售額和收入以及淨收入結束了全年，分別突破600億美元和100億美元大關。

Brent, can you break down what went well, both the quarter and the year?

布倫特，您能詳細分析本季和本年度哪些方面進展順利嗎？

Sure, Josh. That's a great question. Let's start with the quarter, which was a tremendous finish to the year and really boiled down to solid execution as we delivered against the year's backlog of orders. During the quarter, our factories resumed normal seasonal shipment patterns, meaning we consistently hit forecasted line rates in our factories and delivered on our commitment to customers.

當然，喬許。這是一個很好的問題。讓我們從本季開始，這個季度是今年的一個巨大的結束，並且真正歸結為我們紮實的執行力，因為我們交付了今年積壓的訂單。在本季度，我們的工廠恢復了正常的季節性出貨模式，這意味著我們始終達到工廠的預測生產線率，並兌現了對客戶的承諾。

In markets like North America, large ag, nearly all shipments were presold, enabling us to demonstrate disciplined inventory management. Furthermore, pricing remained strong through the close of the year, helping us keep pace with some of the inflationary pressures over the last few years.

在北美等大型農業市場，幾乎所有發貨都已預售，這使我們能夠展示嚴格的庫存管理。此外，截至今年年底，定價仍然強勁，幫助我們應對過去幾年的一些通膨壓力。

On the execution side, we saw positive year-over-year production cost comps in the fourth quarter for the first time in over 3 years for both production in precision ag and small ag and turf. This is a direct result of our team's efforts to rein in inflationary costs, combined with some relief on raw materials and freight prices, which have come down from record highs. Overall, these factors drove a strong finish to an incredible year, making 2023 a story of disciplined execution.

在執行方面，我們在第四季度看到精密農業、小型農業和草坪生產三年多來首次實現年比生產成本比較。這是我們團隊努力控制通膨成本以及原物料和貨運價格從歷史高點回落的直接結果。總體而言，這些因素為令人難以置信的一年帶來了強勁的收官，使 2023 年成為一個嚴格執行的故事。

Following multiple years of a disruptive and challenging environment, we worked through our order books with on-time deliveries, enabling most products to move off restricted allocation. Pricing caught up with inflation, and we saw supply chains revert to normal, which ultimately meant we were able to deliver products to customers on time and at expected costs.

經過多年的破壞性和挑戰性的環境，我們透過按時交貨完成訂單，使大多數產品擺脫了限制分配。定價趕上了通貨膨脹，我們看到供應鏈恢復正常，這最終意味著我們能夠按時向客戶交付產品。

This is Jepsen here. Maybe to add I think the overarching takeaway here is that we're finally getting back to steady state of execution, as Brent mentioned, factory production schedules and customer deliveries have returned to traditional seasonal patterns, which has been very good for the business. And we expect that 2024 will be much the same, meaning we'll see the highest levels of production in the second and third quarter, aligning with the primary use periods for farm and construction equipment.

這是傑普森。也許要補充一點，我認為這裡最重要的一點是，我們終於回到了穩定的執行狀態，正如布倫特所提到的，工廠生產計劃和客戶交付已經恢復到傳統的季節性模式，這對業務非常有利。我們預計 2024 年將大致相同，這意味著我們將在第二季和第三季看到最高產量，與農業和建築設備的主要使用期一致。

Meanwhile, the first quarter will embed lower production rates, allowing for model year changeovers, required factory maintenance and shutdowns during the holiday season. So similar to last year, we expect the first quarter top line to be down 20% to 25% sequentially; and for first quarter margins to be 300 to 400 basis points lower than the full year guide.

同時，第一季的生產率將降低，從而允許車型年份轉換、必要的工廠維護和假期期間的停工。與去年類似，我們預計第一季營收將季減 20% 至 25%；第一季利潤率比全年指引低 300 至 400 個基點。

That's great color, Brent, and thanks for the reminder on seasonality, Josh. It's been a few years since we've been able to use seasonal trends as a guide for future expectations. And speaking of future expectations, this is a perfect segue into my next question, which is probably top of mind for everybody today.

這是很棒的顏色，布倫特，感謝喬許提醒我們季節性。自從我們能夠使用季節性趨勢作為未來預期的指南以來，已經有幾年了。說到未來的期望，這是我下一個問題的完美延續，這可能是今天每個人最關心的問題。

Our 2024 guidance would indicate that markets will be a bit more dynamic next year. I know there's a lot to unpack here, Brent. But maybe you could walk us through what we could expect by segment and geography?

我們的 2024 年指引顯示明年市場將更加活躍。我知道這裡有很多東西要解開，布倫特。但也許您可以向我們介紹一下我們對細分市場和地理位置的期望？

Thanks, Josh. Definitely a lot to unpack here. Why don't we start with large ag in North America. Farm fundamentals are expected to remain sound in 2024, albeit down from record highs of the last few years. That said, customers are still profitable heading into 2024, with balance sheet bolstered by multiple years of record net income.

謝謝，喬許。這裡肯定有很多東西需要解壓縮。我們為什麼不從北美的大型農業公司開始呢？預計 2024 年農業基本面將保持良好，儘管低於過去幾年的歷史高點。儘管如此，到 2024 年，客戶仍能獲利，多年來創紀錄的淨利潤支撐了資產負債表。

Farm debt-to-equity ratios are forecasted to remain at historic lows, thanks in part to continued increases in farm land value. And while commodity prices trend lower, we still expect crop cash receipts to be the third highest in 2024.

預計農場債務股本比率將維持在歷史低點，部分原因是農地價值持續上漲。儘管大宗商品價格呈下降趨勢，但我們仍預期 2024 年農作物現金收入將位居第三。

Similarly, corn and soy cash margins will be down from highs but remain above levels experienced in the back half of the last decade. Lower input costs are offsetting some of the impact from lower prices for soft commodities. Fertilizer costs, for example, is now below 2021 levels. Finally, North American yields are coming in better than expected, which could drive some tax buying for used equipment during the remainder of the calendar year. There's certainly a lot of puts and takes to farm fundamentals this year, but the takeaway is that lower commodity prices and higher interest rates are weighing on equipment demand, but even still, cash margins are still supportive of replacement at mid-cycle volumes.

同樣，玉米和大豆現金利潤率將從高點回落，但仍高於過去十年後半段的水平。較低的投入成本抵消了軟商品價格較低的部分影響。例如，化肥成本目前低於 2021 年的水準。最後，北美的收益率好於預期，這可能會在今年剩餘時間內推動對二手設備的一些稅收購買。今年的農業基本面肯定有很多看跌期權和期權，但重點是，大宗商品價格下降和利率上升正在對設備需求造成壓力，但即便如此，現金利潤率仍然支持週期中期的更換量。

And after 3 years of healthy fleet replacement levels, customers will have a little more discretion on equipment CapEx decisions, creating a more dynamic volume environment for the next year.

經過三年健康的機隊更新水準後，客戶將在設備資本支出決策上擁有更多的自由裁量權，為明年創造一個更動態的數量環境。

Now turning to an equipment sales perspective. We see a really mixed bag in 2024. To give a little color, I'll start with our early order program results by products. As previously noted on the third quarter call, our model year 2024 sprayer early order program ended strong, up year-over-year and planters were flat year-over-year with revenues bolstered by a strong mix for larger equipment and higher precision ag take rates.

現在轉向設備銷售的角度。 2024 年我們會看到一個真正混合的情況。為了提供一點顏色，我將從我們按產品劃分的早期訂單計劃結果開始。正如先前在第三季電話會議上指出的那樣，我們的 2024 年型號噴霧機早期訂單計劃強勁結束，同比增長，播種機同比持平，大型設備和更高精度農業需求的強勁組合推動了收入費率。

And while early orders are flat to up for our crop care products, we will still be making -- or we will be making minimal post-season deliveries in 2024, which will put some downward pressure on shipment volumes when compared to 2023. While our combine early order program does not finish until the end of November, we expect volumes to be down double digits when compared to 2023.

雖然我們的農作物護理產品的早期訂單持平或上升，但我們仍將生產，或者我們將在 2024 年進行最低限度的季後交付，這將對出貨量與 2023 年相比帶來一些下行壓力。聯合收割機提前訂購計畫要到11 月底才能完成，我們預計產量將比2023 年下降兩位數。

Finally, we manage tractors on a rolling order book basis. Our row crop tractor orders are booked through most of the second quarter with similar production levels to 2023. Meanwhile, 4-wheel drive tractors are sold out through the end of the third quarter, reflecting continued strong demand and restricted availability for the product line in 2024.

最後，我們在滾動訂單的基礎上管理拖拉機。我們的中耕作物拖拉機訂單在第二季度大部分時間都已預訂，生產水平與2023 年相似。同時，四輪驅動拖拉機到第三季度末已售罄，反映出需求持續強勁，但該產品線的供應有限。2024 年。

Okay. So it sounds like EOPs are running the full gamut across our product lines. I guess that reports the next question. How are we positioned going into the year from an inventory perspective?

好的。因此，聽起來 EOP 正在我們的整個產品線中運行。我想這會報告下一個問題。從庫存角度來看，今年我們的定位如何？

Our teams did a tremendous job in 2023 managing North America production in line with the retail demand. To put that in context for new equipment, year-end inventory to sales ratios are at 15% for 220-plus horsepower tractors, 9% for 4-wheel drive tractors and just 4% for combines. We are well positioned to produce in line with retail demand again this year for the North American market.

我們的團隊在 2023 年根據零售需求管理北美生產方面做得非常出色。就新設備而言，220 匹馬力以上拖拉機的年末庫存與銷售比率為 15%，四輪驅動拖拉機為 9%，聯合收割機僅 4%。我們已做好充分準備，今年將再次滿足北美市場的零售需求。

Furthermore, on the used inventory side, dealers have done an amazing job proactively managing volumes. Take combines, for example, ending fiscal year inventory -- ending fiscal year inventory is down 22% from its intra-year high in May and down nearly 40% below the 10-year average. And while used high horsepower tractors have recovered from historic lows, they are still about 20% below the 10-year average.

此外，在二手庫存方面，經銷商在主動管理數量方面做得非常出色。以聯合收割機為例，財年期末庫存——財年期末庫存較 5 月份的年內高點下降了 22%，比 10 年平均水平下降了近 40%。儘管二手大馬力拖拉機已從歷史低點回升，但仍比 10 年平均值低約 20%。

So all in all, we feel really good about the starting position for 2024 from an inventory basis, which is really important as end markets inflect a bit next year. When compared to prior replacement cycles, we've managed inventory much tighter in North America than ever before.

總而言之，從庫存來看，我們對 2024 年的起始狀況感到非常滿意，這非常重要，因為明年終端市場會出現一些變化。與先前的更換週期相比，我們在北美的庫存管理比以往任何時候都更加嚴格。

This is Jepsen. Just to add on here. Well, markets ebb and flow. We've learned from prior cycles and know how to manage through them and execute on the things we control, as demonstrated by Brent's comments on North American large ag inventory.

這是傑普森。只是在這裡補充一下。好吧，市場有潮起潮落。我們從先前的周期中吸取了教訓，知道如何管理它們並執行我們控制的事情，正如布倫特對北美大型農業庫存的評論所證明的那樣。

That's great to hear, Josh. And Brent, I'd actually like to pull on a thread view hinted at just a second ago. Our guide would imply that demand modulates in some markets for 2024. Could you compare how we're positioned today relative to prior replacement periods?

很高興聽到這個消息，喬許。布倫特，我實際上想引用剛才暗示的線程視圖。我們的指南暗示，到 2024 年，某些市場的需求會有所調整。您能否比較一下我們今天相對於之前的更替時期的定位？

Absolutely, there are really a few different variables that make this replacement period distinct from prior periods in the North American market. First is large ag inventory levels, which we've already talked about. This remain significantly below long-term averages. In fact, new inventories for both combines and 220-plus horsepower tractors are 30% below 2013 levels. And while 4-wheel drive tractors are 60% below that same year.

當然，確實有一些不同的變數使這個更換時期與北美市場的先前時期不同。首先是大量的農業庫存水平，我們已經討論過。這仍然大大低於長期平均。事實上，聯合收割機和 220 匹馬力以上拖拉機的新庫存比 2013 年水準低 30%。而四輪驅動拖拉機則比同年下降了 60%。

Secondly, fleet age is significantly older today than in 2013 when the fleet was the youngest in recorded history. Combines are roughly in line with long-term averages, while large tractors remain nearly 2 years above the mean and have yet to inflect downward meaningfully. Importantly, a higher fleet age helps dampen the amplitude of the cycle.

其次，今天的機隊年齡比 2013 年老得多，當時機隊是有史以來最年輕的機隊。聯合收割機與長期平均水平大致一致，而大型拖拉機仍比平均水平高出近兩年，並且尚未出現有意義的下降。重要的是，較高的機隊年齡有助於抑制週期的幅度。

Additionally, farmer balance sheets are much healthier today, driven primarily by higher farmland values and years of profitable seasons. Finally, even with higher interest rates, financing options remain prevalent for farmers. At the same time, we decreased the size of our leasing portfolio and limited leasing options to 3- to 5-year terms, eliminating short-term leases, which drove higher used inventory levels in the 2014 to 2016 period.

此外，如今農民的資產負債表更加健康，這主要是由於更高的農地價值和多年的獲利季節所推動的。最後，即使利率較高，融資選擇對農民來說仍然很普遍。同時，我們縮小了租賃組合的規模，並將租賃選項限制為 3 至 5 年期，消除了短期租賃，從而推高了 2014 年至 2016 年期間的二手庫存水準。

The key message here is that the production constraints of the last few years, combined with better inventory discipline from Deere, positions the company really well as demand pivots in 2024.

這裡的關鍵訊息是，過去幾年的生產限制，加上迪爾更好的庫存紀律，使該公司在 2024 年真正處於需求樞軸狀態。

This is Jepsen. Two things to point out here. First is that we are a different company today versus a decade ago, and we have managed the replacement cycle better than the past. Certainly, we have work to do, but we know where we need to focus and we'll execute.

這是傑普森。這裡需要指出兩件事。首先，與十年前相比，我們現在是一家不同的公司，我們比過去更好地管理了更換週期。當然，我們還有工作要做，但我們知道我們需要專注在哪裡並且我們會執行。

The second is around our ability to deliver solutions that help farmers reduce cost and increase profits is much greater today than it was in the past. Farmers now have a breadth of new precision ag technologies, which can help differentiate their operations in an increasingly competitive global market.

第二個是我們提供幫助農民降低成本和增加利潤的解決方案的能力今天比過去要強大得多。農民現在擁有廣泛的新型精準農業技術，這有助於他們在競爭日益激烈的全球市場中脫穎而出。

Okay. Thanks, Brent and Josh. That makes a ton of sense. We spent quite a bit of time now on North America. Can we shift over to South America? Josh, would you walk us through what's happening down there?

好的。謝謝，布倫特和喬許。這很有道理。我們現在在北美度過了相當多的時間。我們可以轉移到南美洲嗎？喬什，你能帶我們了解那裡發生了什麼事嗎？

Of course. I think it's best to start with what happened in '23, which is driving much of our expectations for '24. And as we noted, Brazil has been a very dynamic market with a number of temporary headwinds. We experienced industry demand weakened much faster than expected in the second half of the year for the reasons Josh Rohleder, you mentioned earlier. For example, we saw combined retail sales down about 25% and large tractor retail is down close to 10% in the second half of 2023, demonstrating the volatility we experienced.

當然。我認為最好從 23 年發生的事情開始，這在很大程度上推動了我們對 24 年的期望。正如我們所指出的，巴西是一個非常活躍的市場，但也存在一些暫時的不利因素。由於喬許·羅勒德（Josh Rohleder）您之前提到的原因，我們下半年的產業需求減弱速度比預期快得多。例如，我們看到 2023 年下半年零售額合計下降了約 25%，大型拖拉機零售額下降了近 10%，這表明我們經歷了波動。

As a result, we, along with the rest of the industry, ended up building more inventory than planned, even though we pulled back production in 2023. Therefore, we will underproduce demand next year and our 2024 guide reflects us bringing inventory back to target levels. Importantly, we will continue to invest in the market due to the tremendous potential of our integrated offerings across production systems to drive productivity, profitability and sustainability for producers in the region, all the while building a more resilient and responsive business to handle market fluctuations.

因此，儘管我們在2023 年縮減了產量，但我們與行業其他公司一樣，最終建立的庫存量超出了計劃。因此，我們明年的產量將低於需求，我們的2024 年指南反映了我們將庫存恢復到目標水平水平。重要的是，我們將繼續投資市場，因為我們跨生產系統的整合產品具有巨大潛力，可以提高該地區生產商的生產力、盈利能力和可持續性，同時建立更具彈性和響應能力的業務來應對市場波動。

Okay. Thanks, Josh. And now let's finish up on the ag side with Europe. What are the dynamics over there, Brent?

好的。謝謝，喬許。現在讓我們結束歐洲農業方面的工作。布倫特，那邊的動態如何？

While volumes will be down a bit next year, Europe remains more stable relative to the other markets we've already discussed. It's been a consistent story, and we expect 2024 to be no different. While large tractor demand -- while large tractor demand finished strong, we did see moderation across mid tractors and combines. We were able to manage production accordingly and feel well positioned heading into 2024.

雖然明年的銷售量將略有下降，但歐洲相對於我們已經討論過的其他市場仍然更加穩定。這是一個一貫的故事，我們預期 2024 年也不例外。雖然大型拖拉機需求強勁，但我們確實看到中型拖拉機和聯合收割機需求放緩。我們能夠相應地管理生產，並在邁向 2024 年時感覺處於有利位置。

Given the continued headwinds in a competitive market environment, we expect orders for 2024 to be down in line with the industry -- in line with industry demand. And with order books approximately 45% full, this gives us visibility through most of the first half of the year. Ultimately, we remain committed to executing our business strategy in Europe. Our focus remains on offering differentiated value to our customers through increasing precision tech adoption.

鑑於競爭激烈的市場環境中持續存在的阻力，我們預計 2024 年的訂單量將與產業一致下降，與產業需求一致。由於訂單已滿約 45%，這讓我們能夠了解今年上半年的大部分時間。最終，我們仍然致力於執行我們在歐洲的業務策略。我們的重點仍然是透過增加精密技術的採用來為客戶提供差異化的價值。

Thanks, Brent. That's really helpful. Let's shift now to C&F with 2023 being a story of rental and dealer re-fleeting following 2 years of constrained production, what should we expect to see in 2024? And then secondly, we've heard a lot about mega project and infrastructure spending still to come, yet guidance is down for the next fiscal year. Can you walk us through what's going on there?

謝謝，布倫特。這真的很有幫助。現在讓我們轉向 C&F，在 2 年的生產受限之後，2023 年將是租賃和經銷商重新流動的故事，我們應該在 2024 年看到什麼？其次，我們聽說了許多有關大型專案和基礎設施支出即將到來的消息，但下一財年的指導意見卻有所下降。您能向我們介紹一下那裡發生了什麼事嗎？

You bet, Josh. On one hand, you have strong end markets and infrastructure, as you noted earlier, which are offset by some caution in our guide around residential and the office and commercial sector, given elevated interest rates. On the other hand, you have these mega projects and systemic investment in U.S. manufacturing, which will be significant, albeit hard to predict on timing where we've seen the most consistency is in road building as U.S. government funding, both local and federal has driven expectations for another solid year for the Wirtgen Group.

你敢打賭，喬許。一方面，正如您之前指出的，您擁有強大的終端市場和基礎設施，但考慮到利率上升，我們對住宅、辦公和商業領域的指南中的一些謹慎態度抵消了這一點。另一方面，美國製造業有這些大型項目和系統性投資，這將是重大的，儘管很難預測我們看到的最一致的時間是道路建設，因為美國政府的資金，包括地方和聯邦政府推動了人們對維特根集團又一個穩健的一年的預期。

With respect to inventories, the broader industry built field inventory at a faster pace than we did in 2023. While we did recover from the historic low inventories of 2022, we still trailed the industry. So we'll have a few pockets of further build industry -- further inventory build in 2024.

就庫存而言，更廣泛的行業建立現場庫存的速度比 2023 年更快。雖然我們確實從 2022 年的歷史低庫存中恢復過來，但我們仍然落後於行業。因此，我們將在 2024 年進一步建立一些產業——進一步建立庫存。

Market dynamics aside, we are a structurally better business today than we were just a few years ago, which is evidenced by our nearly doubled margins in the last 4 years. From the acquisition of Wirtgen, which gave us exposure to an excellent road building end market, to our decision to develop a Deere designed excavator, we've really concentrated our focus on the margin accretive areas of that business.

撇開市場動態不談，我們今天的業務結構比幾年前更好，過去 4 年我們的利潤率幾乎翻了一番就證明了這一點。從收購維特根（讓我們接觸到了優秀的道路建設終端市場）到我們決定開發迪爾設計的挖土機，我們真正將注意力集中在該業務的利潤成長領域。

That's helpful insight into the various end market dynamics, Brent. The sound execution of our C&F business really looks to be paying off as we see another year of high margins and reduced decrementals relative to our historical performance. I'd like now to switch the focus over to our tech stack. Brent, could you give us an update on the business model and where we stand across See & Spray, autonomy and the latest Gen 5 display operating system?

布倫特，這有助於洞察各種終端市場動態。我們的 C&F 業務的良好執行看起來確實得到了回報，因為我們看到另一年的高利潤率和相對於我們歷史業績的減少減少。我現在想將焦點轉移到我們的技術堆疊上。 Brent，您能為我們介紹一下業務模式的最新情況以及我們在 See & Spray、自主性和最新的第 5 代顯示作業系統方面的立場嗎？

Sure. We've made some big strides across our entire tech product portfolio this year with much of the focus on our retrofit solutions or what we refer to as precision upgrades. With See & Spray, which is our down payment on Sense & Act Technologies, we successfully launched See & Spray Ultimate for model year 2024 and have seen significant interest in our limited release of See & Spray Premium, the retrofit kit, which can be applied all the way back to model year 2018 sprayers. We are targeting a significant push for premium into the installed base in 2025, supported by our Solutions as a Service business model.

當然。今年，我們的整個技術產品組合取得了一些重大進展，其中大部分重點是我們的改造解決方案或我們所說的精確升級。透過See & Spray（我們對Sense & Act Technologies 的首付），我們成功推出了2024 年車型的See & Spray Ultimate，並且人們對我們限量發行的See & Spray Premium（改裝套件）表現出了濃厚的興趣，該套件可應用於可追溯至 2018 年式噴霧器。我們的目標是在我們的解決方案即服務業務模式的支持下，到 2025 年大力推動高階用戶的安裝。

For See & Spray Premium, we've kept the upfront capital cost for hardware and installation to a minimum, followed by a per acre use model that aligns our monetization with our customers' value. Meanwhile, our autonomy journey is progressing nicely with plans for acreage expansion through our paid pilots in 2024. Our 2023 pilots generated substantial insights in model training, while our key metrics improved significantly year-over-year for KPIs like uptime without intervention, mean time between interventions and reductions in false positives.

對於 See & Spray Premium，我們將硬體和安裝的前期資本成本降至最低，然後採用每英畝使用模型，使我們的貨幣化與客戶的價值保持一致。同時，我們的自主化之旅進展順利，並計劃在2024 年透過付費試點擴大種植面積。我們的2023 年試點在模型訓練方面產生了豐富的見解，而我們的關鍵指標同比顯著提高，例如無幹預的正常運作時間、平均時間幹預措施和減少誤報之間的關係。

The progress here will set us up for broader commercialization with opportunities to accelerate utilization through retrofitting autonomy in the installed base of our tractors. What we started seeing is that when a customer tries out new precision technology for the first time, they really go back.

這裡的進展將為我們實現更廣泛的商業化奠定基礎，並有機會透過對拖拉機安裝基地進行自主改造來加速利用。我們開始看到的是，當客戶第一次嘗試新的精密技術時，他們真的會回頭。

So the key here is adoption and utilization, which is made easier through our Gen 5 display, another innovative example of our focus on production systems and life cycle solutions. This new display is key to helping farmers unlock significant productivity gains across their entire fleet of equipment, coupled with the latest StarFire receiver and modem, a farmer can add basic precision features such as auto track and section control to tractors more than a decade old.

因此，這裡的關鍵是採用和利用，透過我們的第 5 代顯示屏，這變得更加容易，這是我們專注於生產系統和生命週期解決方案的另一個創新示例。這款新顯示器是幫助農民大幅提高整個設備生產效率的關鍵，再加上最新的StarFire 接收器和調製解調器，農民可以為已有十多年歷史的拖拉機添加基本的精確功能，例如自動追蹤和部分控制。

This is a critical step in helping farmers enable less seasoned operators to do tasks that would have historically required someone with years of experience to do. Overall, our continued investment in the tech stack and business model transformation reflects our commitment to delivering customer value and productivity regardless of the equipment age.

這是幫助農民讓經驗不足的操作員完成歷史上需要具有多年經驗的人才能完成的任務的關鍵一步。總體而言，我們對技術堆疊和業務模式轉型的持續投資反映了我們致力於為客戶提供價值和生產力，無論設備使用年限為何。

That's all really exciting, Brent. And it looks like we continue to demonstrate our commitment to the business strategy with stable through-cycle investments in innovation. To that extent, maintaining the gains in structural profitability we've achieved over the last few years requires diligent cost management across the business. We've already noted the significant effort we've put into reducing costs in 2023. But Brent, can you share how we're thinking about cost management for 2024?

這真是令人興奮，布倫特。看起來我們繼續透過穩定的創新投資來展示我們對業務策略的承諾。從這個意義上說，要維持我們在過去幾年中取得的結構性獲利能力的成長，就需要在整個企業範圍內進行嚴格的成本管理。我們已經注意到我們在 2023 年降低成本方面付出了巨大努力。但 Brent，您能否分享一下我們如何考慮 2024 年的成本管理？

That's a great question, Josh. 2023 was really all about getting the low-hanging fruit. From premium freight to declining raw material costs, we did a good job at bringing out a decent amount of disruption-related inefficiencies. As we look forward into 2024, we remain focused on continuing to tackle inflationary costs, and we think there's substantial opportunity across both direct and indirect material as well as logistics and overhead.

這是一個很好的問題，喬許。 2023 年確實是為了獲得唾手可得的果實。從優質運費到原材料成本下降，我們在解決大量與中斷相關的低效率問題方面做得很好。展望 2024 年，我們仍然專注於繼續應對通膨成本，我們認為直接和間接材料以及物流和管理費用方面都存在大量機會。

We've already begun to see these impacts show up in our financials to an extent. The fourth quarter was the first time we've seen production costs flip positive for both production and precision ag and small ag and turf, primarily -- driven primarily by material and freight. Our 2024 guide implies that overall production costs will be slightly favorable for the full year.

我們已經開始看到這些影響在某種程度上體現在我們的財務狀況中。第四季是我們第一次看到生產和精密農業以及小型農業和草坪的生產成本都出現正值，這主要是由材料和貨運推動的。我們的 2024 年指南意味著全年總體生產成本將略有有利。

As price realization moderates to normal levels, the focus on cost becomes an increasingly more important component to maintaining and improving our partial cost position. The focus on reducing our direct and indirect materials as well as our logistics cost becomes especially acute given the continued rise in labor costs across many of our markets.

隨著價格實現回落至正常水平，對成本的關注成為維持和改善我們部分成本地位的一個越來越重要的組成部分。鑑於我們許多市場的勞動成本持續上升，對減少直接和間接材料以及物流成本的關注變得尤為迫切。

This is Josh Jepsen again. One thing to add to Brent's comments there is just the effort of our teams. These costs don't come out overnight nor they come from the work of one loan group. It takes a lot of hard work across the board to make this happen. Part of our success over the past few years has been our ability to manage our business and run a lean operation capable of adapting quickly to changing environments, while maintaining the clear priority of taking care of customers. Our teams remain focused on cost management, and I expect we'll see the benefit of these efforts as we move forward.

這又是喬許傑普森。布倫特的評論中需要補充的一件事就是我們團隊的努力。這些成本不是一朝一夕就能產生的，也不是來自某個貸款集團的工作。要實現這一目標，需要付出大量的艱苦努力。過去幾年我們成功的部分原因在於我們能夠管理業務和進行精益運營，能夠快速適應不斷變化的環境，同時保持照顧客戶的明確優先順序。我們的團隊仍然專注於成本管理，我希望隨著我們的前進，我們將看到這些努力的好處。

Okay. Great. And my final question is back to you, Josh. We've had a significant year from a cash flow perspective. Can you talk briefly about our use of cash priorities and capital allocation in '23? And then what we might expect in 2024?

好的。偉大的。我的最後一個問題又回到你身上了，喬許。從現金流的角度來看，我們度過了重要的一年。您能簡單談談我們在 23 年對現金優先順序和資本配置的使用情況嗎？那麼 2024 年我們會期待什麼呢？

Sure. We saw excellent cash flow conversion in 2023, allowing us to execute on all of our priorities. Liquidity, along with our single A credit rating remains in good shape, which has allowed us to reinvest diligently in the business. This has never been more important than today.

當然。我們在 2023 年看到了出色的現金流轉換，使我們能夠執行所有優先事項。流動性以及我們的單一 A 信用評級保持良好狀態，這使我們能夠勤奮地對業務進行再投資。這從來沒有像今天這樣重要。

Despite top line guidance being down in 2024, we are well positioned to continue our organic and inorganic investments in the business. In particular, we plan to maintain a similar investment level in R&D next year. Next, we're able to increase our dividend by nearly 20% this year, reflecting our confidence in a structurally more profitable business today than in years past.

儘管 2024 年的營收指引有所下降，但我們仍處於有利地位，可以繼續對該業務進行有機和無機投資。特別是，我們計劃明年在研發方面維持類似的投資水準。接下來，我們今年能夠將股息增加近 20%，這反映出我們對今天的業務在結構上比過去幾年更有利可圖的信心。

And finally, we completed the year with nearly $7.2 billion in share repurchases. Over the last 3 years, we have returned nearly 75% of our cash from the equipment operations to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. And as we execute on the strategy, we remain committed to disciplined uses of cash.

最後，我們在這一年完成了近 72 億美元的股票回購。在過去 3 年裡，我們透過股利和回購將設備營運中近 75% 的現金回饋給股東。在執行該策略時，我們仍然致力於嚴格使用現金。

Thanks, Josh. Now before we open up the line for questions, do you have any final thoughts you'd like to share?

謝謝，喬許。現在，在我們開始提問之前，您有什麼最後的想法想分享嗎？

Yes, that would be great. It's been a truly phenomenal year for us in 2023. Our teams executed well, recovering from some of the production challenges in 2022. As a result, we ended the year setting new levels of structural profitability on margins, net income and earnings per share while investing significantly in the business and returning cash to shareholders.

是啊，那樣最好了。 2023 年對我們來說確實是非凡的一年。我們的團隊執行得很好，從2022 年的一些生產挑戰中恢復過來。因此，我們在年底在利潤率、淨利潤和每股收益方面設定了新的結構性獲利水平，同時大力投資業務並向股東返還現金。

Since 2020, we focused on 4 key things which are driving our results. We restructured the entire enterprise to mirror the production systems of our customers to focus on value unlock via incremental addressable market. This also delivered improvements in empowerment and autonomy for the organization.

自 2020 年以來，我們將重點放在推動我們取得成果的 4 個關鍵事項。我們重組了整個企業，以反映客戶的生產系統，並專注於透過增量可尋址市場釋放價值。這也提高了組織的授權和自主權。

Next, we centralized our technology development to leverage tech across the enterprise, increase speed and reduce redundancy. Third, we stood up an organization to help us better serve our customers throughout the entire life cycle of our products and solutions. And lastly, we embraced a more disciplined capital allocation framework focused on prioritizing the greatest opportunities for customer value unlock, optimizing our business portfolio, which included exiting some unprofitable markets and product lines that didn't serve our strategy or create significant customer value and accelerating development and deployment of value-creating technologies.

接下來，我們集中技術開發，以利用整個企業的技術，提高速度並減少冗餘。第三，我們成立了一個組織來幫助我們在產品和解決方案的整個生命週期中更好地為客戶服務。最後，我們採用了更嚴格的資本配置框架，重點是優先考慮釋放客戶價值的最大機會，優化我們的業務組合，其中包括退出一些不盈利的市場和產品線，這些市場和產品線不符合我們的策略或創造顯著的客戶價值，並加速開發和部署創造價值的技術。

We're confident when we create customer value, we are making their jobs and lives easier while enabling them to do more with less. And as a result, we will in turn grow and create value-adding margin-accretive solutions. Our guide for 2024 contemplates our equipment operations being right around mid-cycle sales levels. As a result of our structural improvements, combined with our execution, we will deliver nearly 2x the margin and 2.5x the net income than the last time our businesses were near mid-cycle in the 2018, 2019 time frame.

我們相信，當我們創造客戶價值時，我們就能讓他們的工作和生活變得更輕鬆，同時使他們能夠用更少的資源做更多的事情。因此，我們將反過來發展並創造增值的利潤成長解決方案。我們的 2024 年指南預計我們的設備營運將處於中期銷售水準左右。由於我們的結構改進，再加上我們的執行力，我們將在 2018 年和 2019 年期間實現比上次業務接近週期中期時近 2 倍的利潤和 2.5 倍的淨利潤。

It's important to note that we'll achieve this level of profitability while continuing to protect our most important investments in products and services that further differentiate our customers. R&D and new product-related CapEx remains at the highest level in the company's history. And we continue to invest in life cycle solutions and business model transformation.

值得注意的是，我們將實現這一水平的盈利能力，同時繼續保護我們在產品和服務方面最重要的投資，從而進一步使我們的客戶脫穎而出。研發和新產品相關的資本支出維持在公司歷史上的最高水準。我們繼續投資於生命週期解決方案和業務模式轉型。

Fundamentally, we are operating very differently than in the past. As a result of these actions we've taken in executing the strategy and the significant opportunity in front of us, we are confident in our ability to produce higher levels of returns through cycle while dampening the variability in our performance over time. This will lead to higher highs and higher lows for our business.

從根本上來說，我們的運作方式與過去有很大不同。由於我們在執行策略時採取的這些行動以及我們面前的重大機遇，我們對在整個週期內產生更高水平的回報的能力充滿信心，同時抑制我們績效隨時間的變化。這將導致我們的業務出現更高的高點和更高的低點。

The runway of opportunity ahead of us is still greater than what we've unlocked to date, which gives us confidence in our strategy and enthusiasm to deliver for our customers and all stakeholders through the balance of the decade.

我們面前的機會仍然比我們迄今為止所釋放的機會更大，這使我們對我們的策略充滿信心，並熱情地在這十年的餘下時間裡為我們的客戶和所有利益相關者提供服務。

Thanks, Josh. Now let's open it up to see what other questions our investors have.

謝謝，喬許。現在讓我們打開它，看看我們的投資者還有哪些問題。

Now we have -- now we are all ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call. The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure. (Operator Instructions). [Sue]?

現在我們已經準備好開始電話的問答部分。接線員將指導您了解投票程序。 （操作員說明）。 [起訴]？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

Great. My question, I guess, is around kind of the cost side of this. I guess, historically, I've been through a few cycles with you guys. I might have thought that there'd be more opportunity on the cost side relative to the sort of top line guide that you're giving. I'm calculating kind of a 35% decremental. I guess that's kind of okay, but it feels like there should be some levers for you to pull to maybe mitigate that a little bit. So any thoughts around that? I'd love to hear.

偉大的。我想，我的問題是關於成本方面的。我想，從歷史上看，我和你們一起經歷了幾個週期。我可能認為，相對於您提供的那種頂線指南，成本方面會有更多機會。我正在計算 35% 的遞減。我想這沒什麼問題，但感覺應該有一些槓桿可以讓你拉動，也許可以稍微緩解一下這種情況。那麼對此有什麼想法嗎？我很想聽。

Yes. Steve, thanks for the question. Regarding our cost management for 2024 and sort of the level of structural profitability embedded in the business. You'll see that some of our most profitable markets are down from a top line perspective. So production in precision ag will be down 15% to 20%, while at the same time, maintaining a 35% decremental. And as we look at sort of the execution in the fourth quarter. We're starting to see some of our disciplined cost management come into play. I mean that's the first quarter in a number of years where we've seen production costs actually become deflationary and serve as a tailwind for our business.

是的。史蒂夫，謝謝你的提問。關於我們 2024 年的成本管理以及業務中的結構性獲利水準。從營收角度來看，您會發現我們一些最賺錢的市場正在下滑。因此，精密農業的產量將下降15%至20%，同時維持35%的減幅。當我們看看第四季度的執行情況時。我們開始看到一些嚴格的成本管理開始發揮作用。我的意思是，這是多年來我們第一次看到生產成本實際上變得通縮，並成為我們業務的推動力。

And I would say there's a significant agenda that we'll be executing towards for the remainder of 20 but we're pleased to see the progress we've made already in the fourth quarter of '23. Our goal from a cost management perspective is to really neutralize all of the -- to the extent possible, the production cost inflation in next year and where possible, actually drive some of that to a production cost deflation tailwind for us. If you think about some of the areas where we're most focused, it's really around reducing cost in our supply chain, while at the same time, increasing resiliency in the supply base over the longer term, will also work on designing cost out of our equipment.

我想說的是，我們將在 20 年剩餘時間內執行一項重要議程，但我們很高興看到我們在 23 年第四季已經取得的進展。從成本管理的角度來看，我們的目標是真正抵消明年所有的生產成本通膨，並在可能的情況下，實際上將其中一些因素推向生產成本通貨緊縮的順風車。如果你考慮我們最關注的一些領域，它實際上是圍繞降低我們供應鏈的成本，同時，從長遠來看，提高供應基礎的彈性，也將致力於設計成本我們的設備。

And so if we break that down into some of the subcomponents, we'll have opportunities both in raw material and freight costs, which were tailwinds for us in the back half of 2023. Those will continue to be tailwinds for us. in 2024. And then logistics will be another area of focus. And I think we're seeing that come down across really all forms of logistics from rail, ocean, trucking and airfreight as well. We go back to 2022, we saw our air freight expense increase almost sixfold during that year, and we got about half of that back in '23. And we look to get more of that back over the course of 2024.

因此，如果我們將其分解為一些子組件，我們將在原材料和貨運成本方面都有機會，這在 2023 年下半年對我們來說是有利的。這些將繼續對我們有利。到2024年，物流將成為另一個重點領域。我認為我們看到這種情況也出現在鐵路、海運、卡車運輸和空運等所有形式的物流中。我們回到 2022 年，我們看到那一年我們的空運費用幾乎增加了六倍，而我們在 23 年獲得了大約一半的費用。我們希望在 2024 年獲得更多回報。

And just to be clear, you're expecting that -- within that 35% decremental, you're expecting kind of all those pieces of goodness that you just described?

需要明確的是，您期望在 35% 的遞減範圍內，您期望獲得您剛才描述的所有這些好處？

Yes. Certainly, our guide would contemplate achieving further reductions, and that's already included in our 35 decremental. There's certainly going to be opportunities to continue to control decrementals with further supply management and cost activities for 2024.

是的。當然，我們的指南會考慮進一步減少，這已經包含在我們的 35 減量中。 2024 年肯定有機會透過進一步的供應管理和成本活動繼續控制減量。

Yes, Steve, thank you, it's Josh. One thing I would add is, I mean, if we compare back to periods when we've been at or around mid-cycle, which we're projecting '24 will be. Our margins will be nearly double. Net income about 2.5x greater. So if you think about being around mid-cycle, delivering this decremental and significant improvement from a mid-cycle to mid-cycle perspective in profitability. We feel good about where we're at. We have opportunities to keep working on, and we'll methodically work through those. And as we execute, we'll see those benefits come through. But we feel good about where we're at from a guide perspective. We know we need to execute. But really, structurally, see a significant shift forward even just, call it, the last 5, 6 years.

是的，史蒂夫，謝謝你，我是喬許。我要補充的一件事是，我的意思是，如果我們與處於或接近週期中期的時期進行比較，我們預計 24 年將處於週期中期。我們的利潤將幾乎翻倍。淨利潤增加約 2.5 倍。因此，如果你考慮在周期中期，從中期到中期的角度實現獲利能力的遞減和顯著改善。我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。我們有機會繼續努力，我們將有條不紊地完成這些工作。當我們執行時，我們將看到這些好處得以實現。但從導遊的角度來看，我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。我們知道我們需要執行。但實際上，從結構上看，即使只是在過去的 5、6 年裡，我們也看到了重大的轉變。

Our next question is from Stanley Elliott with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stanley Elliott 和 Stifel。

Can you talk a little bit about the implied pricing is roughly kind of 1%, coming off of difficult compares. Help us with maybe the exit rate into next year -- or the end of this year or '24? Are we talking about negative pricing? Just any kind of help that you can provide there would be great.

您能談談隱含定價大約是 1%，這是從困難的比較中得出的。請幫助我們了解明年（或今年底或 24 年）的退出率？我們在談論負定價嗎？只要您能提供任何幫助，那就太好了。

Stanley, regarding our pricing strategy for 2024, we'll be at about 1.5 points for both PPA and C&F and then a point for SAT. We will see some carryover early in the year, but we would expect the entire year to remain positive for all 3 segments. Importantly, that forecast does include a return of some retail discounts. So that is a net net price realization figure, again, inclusive of incentives.

Stanley，關於我們 2024 年的定價策略，我們將為 PPA 和 C&F 提供約 1.5 個點，然後為 SAT 提供 1 個點。我們將在今年年初看到一些結轉，但我們預計全年所有三個細分市場都將保持積極的勢頭。重要的是，該預測確實包括恢復一些零售折扣。因此，這是一個淨價格實現數字，同樣包含激勵措施。

And I think what you've seen is -- with Brazil being maybe the only notable exception. In most markets, we've really controlled our inventory position, which helps us protect our pricing strategy in most markets for 2024. So we wouldn't expect to see any segment go negative through the course of 2024.

我認為你所看到的是——巴西可能是唯一值得注意的例外。在大多數市場，我們確實控制了庫存狀況，這有助於我們保護 2024 年大多數市場的定價策略。因此，我們預計 2024 年不會有任何細分市場出現負成長。

The next question is from Seth Weber with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的賽斯‧韋伯 (Seth Weber)。

I wanted to see if you could just give a little bit of context around your guidance for P&PA and the other segments where your growth is expected to be -- your decline is expected to be bigger than the industry decline. If you could just maybe contextualize that for us, like why the year would be underperforming, what you're calling for, for the industry end markets.

我想看看您能否就您對 P&PA 和其他預計成長的細分市場的指導提供一些背景資訊——預計您的下降幅度將大於行業下降幅度。如果您能為我們解釋一下這一點，例如為什麼今年表現不佳，您對行業終端市場的要求是什麼。

Yes. Happy Thanksgiving to you, too, Seth. Regarding our guide, our financial guide relative to our industry forecast, you'll notice a slight difference -- some slight differences between the segments, maybe starting with production of precision ag. In North America, we have positioned ourselves really well, and we will be able to produce in line with retail demand for 2024, where you're seeing our financial guide a little bit lower than our broader industry guide is really due to Brazil, where we will be underproducing retail demand in 2024 as we work to bring inventory levels back to our targeted levels for that particular market. So that's really what's affecting our financial guide relative to the industry guide for production of precision ag.

是的。也祝你感恩節快樂，賽斯。關於我們的指南，我們的財務指南相對於我們的行業預測，您會注意到細微的差異 - 細分市場之間的一些細微差異，可能從精密農業的生產開始。在北美，我們的定位非常好，我們將能夠根據 2024 年的零售需求進行生產，您會看到我們的財務指南比我們更廣泛的行業指南略低，這實際上是由於巴西，從那裡到2024 年，我們將努力將庫存水準恢復到該特定市場的目標水平，從而導致零售需求不足。因此，這確實是影響我們相對於精密農業生產產業指南的財務指南的因素。

For small ag and turf, the story there continues to be around small tractors, our compact utility tractors, where we'll see another year of underproduction to bring inventory levels back down a little bit. That market continues to be affected by the slowdown in single-family housing starts and can also be relatively sensitive to interest rate increases. And so, as that end market continues to be slow, we'll underproduce yet another year in 2024. I would say, for the rest of small ag and turf, we'll have the ability to produce largely in line with the industry.

對於小型農業和草坪業來說，故事仍然圍繞著小型拖拉機，我們的緊湊型多功能拖拉機，我們將看到另一年的生產不足，從而使庫存水平略有回落。該市場繼續受到單戶住房開工放緩的影響，對利率上漲也相對敏感。因此，隨著終端市場繼續放緩，我們將在 2024 年再次生產不足。我想說，對於其餘的小型農業和草坪業，我們將有能力基本上與行業保持一致。

As it relates to construction and forestry, the story there is a little bit different. You saw the industry at large build inventory in 2023. We did build some inventory, but certainly not at the pace that the broader industry did. And so that we actually may have a little further inventory build yet to come in 2024, but it will be an inventory build to a lesser extent than what happened in 2023. So that will drive lower shipment volumes year-over-year relative to the industry there. So it's a little bit different story depending on what segment we're talking about, but that's the reconciliation -- the broad reconciliation of our financial guide to the industry.

由於它涉及建築和林業，因此情況略有不同。你看到整個行業在 2023 年建立了庫存。我們確實建立了一些庫存，但肯定沒有以更廣泛的行業的速度建立。因此，我們實際上可能會在 2024 年進一步增加庫存，但庫存增加的程度將小於 2023 年。因此，相對於 2023 年，這將導致出貨量逐年下降。那裡的工業。因此，根據我們所討論的細分市場，情況會有所不同，但這就是對帳——我們對行業的財務指南的廣泛對帳。

Yes. Seth, maybe -- this is Josh. Maybe one thing to add, just to reiterate the position in North America on the large ag side, we've managed that very well and very different than the prior cycle. I think both new and used were really well positioned, as Brent mentioned, both to build in line with retail as we go forward. But the work that's been done on the new side, we highlighted it earlier, but for example, new inventory on combines, inventory sales 4% at the end of the year. For drive tractors, 9% or something like 15% on row crop. So both the new side and then what the dealers have done working through use proactively, and we've supported that activity has been really positive and positioned us well when you think about our biggest market.

是的。塞斯，也許－－這是喬許。也許需要補充一件事，只是為了重申北美在大型農業方面的立場，我們在這方面做得非常好，並且與上一個週期有很大不同。我認為新的和二手的都定位得很好，正如布倫特所提到的，隨著我們的發展，兩者都與零售業保持一致。但是我們之前強調在新方面所做的工作，例如聯合收割機的新庫存，年底庫存銷售 4%。對於驅動拖拉機，中耕作物為 9% 或 15% 左右。因此，無論是新方面還是經銷商都透過積極主動地使用所做的工作，我們支持這項活動非常積極，並且當您考慮我們最大的市場時，這使我們處於有利地位。

The next question is from Tim Thein with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Tim Thein。

Maybe just coming back to the comments on production costs. And I guess it's a bit more of a clarification. But the -- I thought I heard you say earlier that you expect that the production cost to be favorable overall for the company in '24. But then later, it sounded like maybe there are pieces of it that you expected to be favorable. So just we're on the same page in terms of the EBIT bridge you provided by segment, that production cost for the company as a whole, you expect that to be on the plus side throughout '24? Is that correct? Or is that not? Did I mishear that?

也許只是回到對生產成本的評論。我想這更像是一個澄清。但是——我想我之前聽到你說過，你預計 24 年的生產成本總體上對公司有利。但後來，聽起來也許其中有一些你預期會喜歡的部分。因此，我們在您按部門提供的息稅前利潤橋樑方面達成了一致，即整個公司的生產成本，您預計整個 24 年都會處於上升趨勢？那是對的嗎？或者不是嗎？我是不是聽錯了？

Yes. Regarding production costs, for 2024, our guide would contemplate production costs to be flat to a tailwind next year, a slight tailwind, I should say, there are some subcomponents within production costs that will still be inflationary. But net debt, we should be moderately positive in the year 2024. Specifically, we would expect tailwinds to come from further material and freight reductions in 2024 when compared to 2023, and labor would be the largest inflationary item within the production cost bucket for us. And what we're seeing is -- many of the labor contracts that we have within our factories do have scheduled step-ups in the year. So we'll have to offset those to bring total production cost to a deflationary state in 2024, which, again, our guide does contemplate.

是的。關於生產成本，對於 2024 年，我們的指南將考慮明年的生產成本將持平至順風，輕微的順風，我應該說，生產成本中的一些子組成部分仍然會通貨膨脹。但就淨債務而言，我們在2024 年應該適度樂觀。具體來說，我們預計2024 年與2023 年相比，材料和貨運的進一步減少將帶來推動作用，而勞動力將成為我們生產成本範圍內最大的通膨項目。我們看到的是──我們工廠內簽訂的許多勞動合約確實在今年安排了升級。因此，我們必須抵銷這些影響，才能在 2024 年將總生產成本帶入通貨緊縮狀態，而我們的指南也確實考慮到了這一點。

Yes. I mean in short, Tim, you add up those bars for production costs, they should be green is our current expectation for production cost in '24.

是的。我的意思是，簡而言之，蒂姆，你將這些條形圖加起來作為生產成本，它們應該是綠色的，這是我們目前對 24 年生產成本的預期。

The next question is from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.

下一個問題是克里斯汀歐文和奧本海默提出的。

Happy Thanksgiving. I wanted to ask on the broader capital allocation. Just given the outlook, you've got operating cash flow conversion greater than 100% guided in 2024. So my question is twofold. First, on the internal investments. Can you talk about the technology spend through the cycle and how you're prioritizing those projects? And then externally, maybe touch on the dividend given the 25% to 35% payout ratio at mid-cycle. How we should think about that influencing your dividend outlook next year?

感恩節快樂。我想詢問更廣泛的資本配置。就展望而言，到 2024 年，營運現金流轉換率將超過 100%。所以我的問題是雙重的。首先，關於內部投資。您能談談整個週期的技術支出以及您如何確定這些項目的優先順序嗎？然後從外部來看，鑑於週期中期 25% 至 35% 的派息率，可能會涉及股息。我們應該如何考慮這會影響您明年的股利前景？

Kristen, it's Josh. Thank you for the question. I'll start with the R&D side. So yes, we're -- we'll be up slightly from an R&D perspective. So we're talking $2.2 billion or more. A tremendous amount of that continues to be focused on what we're doing from a technology perspective and bringing Sense & Act technologies across our portfolio, across the enterprise autonomy, significant opportunities there. And as Brent mentioned, we saw good progress this year there as well. And we have significant opportunities there.

克里斯汀，這是喬許。感謝你的提問。我將從研發方面開始。所以，是的，從研發的角度來看，我們會略有上升。所以我們談論的是 22 億美元或更多。其中很大一部分繼續關注我們從技術角度所做的事情，並將感知與行動技術引入我們的產品組合、整個企業自主權，以及那裡的重大機會。正如布倫特所提到的，我們今年也看到了良好的進展。我們在那裡有重要的機會。

We're talking -- we spoke to a dealer principal a week ago. And he talked about being out with customers here over the last month and every single customer across many different crops and production systems, all asking about autonomy. So we know the appetite there and the labor challenges being faced by our customer base. So that remains very real. And we also have some significant new product development coming we're integrating hardware and technology over the course of the next couple of years. So there's a tremendous amount of focus from an R&D perspective on that. And as you've heard us talk about before, we're continuing to think about alternative propulsion solutions that are going to reduce emissions and reduce cost for our customers, and we've got to focus in that space for sure.

我們正在交談——一周前我們與一位經銷商負責人進行了交談。他談到了上個月與這裡的客戶以及許多不同作物和生產系統的每位客戶，他們都詢問自主權。因此，我們了解那裡的需求以及我們的客戶群面臨的勞動力挑戰。所以這仍然是非常真實的。我們還將開發一些重要的新產品，我們將在未來幾年內整合硬體和技術。因此，從研發的角度來看，人們非常關注這一點。正如您之前聽到我們談論的那樣，我們正在繼續考慮替代推進解決方案，以減少排放並降低客戶的成本，我們肯定必須專注於該領域。

As it relates to the dividend, we've mentioned we've taken it up nearly 20% this year. I think that underlies the confidence we have in where we are and where we're going. As it relates to our payout percentage in the range. We're still working our way to that range to the bottom of that and recognize over time, as we continue to execute the way we are. That range will continue to move. So that is something we likely chase as we demonstrate and deliver continued structural profitability.

就股息而言，我們已經提到今年我們已將股息提高了近 20%。我認為這是我們對自己所處位置和未來發展方向充滿信心的基礎。因為它與我們在該範圍內的支付百分比有關。我們仍在努力達到該範圍的底部，並隨著時間的推移認識到，因為我們繼續按照我們的方式執行。該範圍將繼續移動。因此，當我們展示並提供持續的結構性獲利能力時，這可能是我們所追求的目標。

But I would say, all in all, given the cash we expect to generate, we'll be able to handle all of our use of cash priorities from investing in the business, organic and inorganic the dividend as well as using residual cash to repurchase shares. And we think over the long term, we can drive value-enhancing actions there.

但我想說，總而言之，考慮到我們預期產生的現金，我們將能夠處理所有現金優先事項的使用，包括投資於業務、有機和無機股息以及使用剩餘現金進行回購分享。我們認為，從長遠來看，我們可以在那裡推動增值行動。

The next question is from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

Happy Thanksgiving. Nice to see the production cut in the business before used inventories got out of hand the way they did in prior cycles. I'm wondering if we could just unpack the 15% to 20% production cut in large ag? And how you're thinking that will drive a balancing in used inventories because obviously, used inventories are at absolute low level but rising rapidly off the bottom. So what's the level of comfort based on your modeling that, the 15% to 20% cut is going to get us where we need to be versus needing to cut production further if used inventories continue to build. I would love to hear how you're thinking about all of that.

感恩節快樂。很高興看到在舊庫存像之前週期那樣失控之前，業務已經削減了產量。我想知道我們是否可以解決大型農業 15% 到 20% 的減產問題？您認為這將如何推動二手庫存的平衡，因為顯然，二手庫存處於絕對低水平，但從底部快速上升。那麼，根據您的模型，15% 到 20% 的削減將使我們達到我們需要的目標，而不是如果二手庫存繼續增加則需要進一步削減產量，那麼舒適度是多少。我很想聽聽你是如何看待這一切的。

And Happy Thanksgiving to you as well. there's a couple of puts and takes as we think about production for next year. Certainly, we and the industry at large have benefited from some of the constraints -- production constraints over 2021, '22 and '23. Certainly didn't feel like a net benefit during those years. But the constraints that we faced as an industry during that time period, limited the amount of new equipment that we introduced to the fleet in a short period of time. And I think ultimately, we'll see that have a dampening effect on the cycle itself. As it relates to used, we have seen used get depleted significantly during those lean years in '22 and the first part of '23. Some of those used inventories have started to come back up in the early part of 2023. And this is where the dealer response has been really phenomenal in terms of their proactive engagement to keep those used inventories well below historic target averages.

也祝你感恩節快樂。當我們考慮明年的生產時，有一些考慮。當然，我們和整個產業都受益於一些限制——2021 年、22 年和 23 年的生產限制。那些年當然感覺不到淨收益。但我們在那個時期作為一個行業所面臨的限制限制了我們在短時間內向船隊引入的新設備的數量。我認為最終我們會看到這對週期本身產生抑製作用。就二手而言，我們看到二手在 22 年和 23 年上半年的經濟困難時期顯著耗盡。其中一些二手庫存已於 2023 年初開始回升。這就是經銷商反應非常出色的地方，他們積極主動地參與，以將這些二手庫存保持在遠低於歷史目標平均水平。

And so we look at combines were, I think, something 40% below the historic average there and tractors were around 20% below that historic average. Part of that was, again, our dealers being proactive, but then also in the back half of 2023, we did increase our incentive spend on used to help dealers manage that used inventory. And I think the other part of the story here is just around how we've changed some of our leasing options relative to the last cycle. We go back to 2012 and '13 and '14. John Deere and the industry at large was engaging in a lot of short-term leases that produced machines coming back to OEMs within 1 or 2 years, and that exacerbated some of the used inventory balances that we saw at the end of the cycle. And so as we intend to produce in line for new next year, combined with better inventory management on the new side. We think that balance of new and used should be relatively healthy going into 2024.

因此，我認為聯合收割機比歷史平均值低 40%，拖拉機比歷史平均值低 20% 左右。其中一部分原因還是我們的經銷商積極主動，但在 2023 年下半年，我們確實增加了二手貨激勵支出，以幫助經銷商管理二手庫存。我認為故事的另一部分是關於我們如何改變相對於上一個週期的一些租賃選項。我們回到 2012 年、13 年和 14 年。約翰迪爾和整個行業正在進行大量的短期租賃，這些機器生產的機器會在 1 或 2 年內返回給原始設備製造商，這加劇了我們在週期結束時看到的一些二手庫存餘額。因此，我們打算明年生產新產品，並結合新產品更好的庫存管理。我們認為，進入 2024 年，新舊貨的平衡應該相對健康。

The next question is from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

I just wanted to circle back to decremental margins in large ag. I think the production precision is more like 38% versus 35%, obviously, not a huge difference. But I was curious if there's any mix headwind within that segment or R&D? I'm actually curious how you interpret what sounds like a more negative kind of combine early order program versus some of the others? Is there any shift in time? Is that a combined specific cycle? Is that -- how do you interpret that differential, if there is one? And is that kind of what's dragging down on the margins in the outlook?

我只是想回到大農業的遞減利潤。我認為生產精度更像是 38% 和 35%，顯然差異不是很大。但我很好奇該細分市場或研發領域是否有任何混合阻力？我實際上很好奇你如何解釋與其他一些計劃相比聽起來更消極的聯合早購計劃？時間上有變化嗎？這是一個組合的特定循環嗎？那是——如果有的話，你如何解釋這種差異？這就是拖累前景利潤率的因素嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Rob, for the question. Regarding our decrementals for next year, I think -- I mean, there's a number of things to get consider. We are seeing a significant double-digit volume decline in our shipments. While at the same time, we've held our R&D investment relatively flat to up a little bit next year as we intend to invest somewhat consistently through cycle here. As you think about sort of the mix impact that's having in our decrementals, certainly with combines down more than the group average, that's certainly had a little bit of a negative mix headwind there. And I would say, over the last few years, we've seen profitability in Brazil approach our North America margins. And so that market being down more than the entire segment average also is a little bit of a mix headwind. And this is where our focus on cost management is really helping us maintain our traditional decrementals because with those mix headwinds, it would be difficult to do otherwise.

是的。謝謝羅布的提問。關於明年的減量，我認為——我的意思是，有很多事情需要考慮。我們的出貨量出現了兩位數的大幅下降。同時，我們的研發投資相對持平，明年會略有增加，因為我們打算在整個週期中保持一致的投資。當你想到我們的減量中所產生的混合影響時，當然，組合下降超過了團體平均水平，這肯定會帶來一些負面的混合逆風。我想說，在過去的幾年裡，我們已經看到巴西的獲利能力接近我們的北美利潤率。因此，市場下跌幅度超過整個細分市場的平均水平，這也是一個混合逆風。這就是我們對成本管理的關注真正幫助我們維持傳統的減量，因為在這些混合逆風的情況下，否則很難採取其他措施。

Specific to combines, in terms of why is that down more than the group segment, combines have a slightly shorter useful life than other pieces of farm equipment. And so over the last 2 to 3 years, we saw the fleet age come down more in combines than tractors. And right now, the fleet age is about in line with long-term averages. And so I think that's given producers a little more discretion on their combine CapEx decisions going into next year.

具體到聯合收割機，就為什麼比集團部分下降更多而言，聯合收割機的使用壽命比其他農業設備略短。因此，在過去的兩到三年裡，我們看到聯合收割機的機隊年齡比拖拉機的機齡下降得更多。目前，機隊年齡與長期平均值基本一致。因此，我認為這讓生產商在明年的綜合資本支出決策上有了更多的自由裁量權。

Yes. Maybe -- Rob, great question. This is Josh. One thing to add. At the same time, Brent mentioned R&D, and we're also investing in parts of the business like our business model transformation and how we build out the go-to-market plans there. Over time, we expect that will drive more stable business, better margin as we deliver on that and grow that at scale. I think in the near term, we're building that and investing in it, knowing the benefits that can deliver here as we go through the balance of the decade.

是的。也許——羅布，好問題。這是喬許。要補充一件事。同時，布倫特提到了研發，我們也在投資部分業務，例如我們的業務模式轉型以及我們如何制定上市計劃。隨著時間的推移，我們預計這將推動業務更加穩定，利潤率更高，因為我們能夠實現這一目標並實現規模成長。我認為在短期內，我們正在建立它並對其進行投資，因為我們知道在我們度過這十年的餘下時間時可以在這裡帶來的​​好處。

Thanks, Rob. And Sue, I think we have time for one last caller.

謝謝，羅布。蘇，我想我們還有時間接聽最後一位來電者。

Our last question comes from Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson.

我們的最後一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Mike Shlisky。戴維森。

Happy Thanksgiving. It's a very simple one. Just a little more granularity on your comments about this being a mid-cycle year in 2024. I guess I want to know, are all 3 segments look to be a mid-cycle for fiscal 2024? The margin expectations for each segment also about where it should be at a mid-cycle as well. Just kind of your thoughts on whether any segment will be below or above mid-cycle and kind of balance out by the other one.

感恩節快樂。這是一個非常簡單的問題。請更詳細地闡述您對 2024 年是周期中期的評論。我想我想知道，所有 3 個細分市場看起來都屬於 2024 財年的周期中期嗎？每個細分市場的利潤率預期也與週期中期的水準有關。請談談您對任何細分市場是否會低於或高於週期中期以及由另一個細分市場進行平衡的想法。

Mike, Happy Thanksgiving to you as well. I would say broadly segments are somewhat close to mid-cycle. I think production precision ag is probably the closest. Construction and forestry running a little bit higher and small ag and turf a little bit lower, is sort of the directional breakdown there. And I think for us, as we think about structural profitability, we measure that at similar points in the cycle across a long period of time. And so for us, we look at 2024 as a good proxy for mid-cycle, we would compare that to 2019 would be the last year our businesses were running around the same level of volume. And so we're pleased that we can generate 2.5x the net income at these levels. And given the mix, as most of them are closer to mid-cycle than not. We feel like it's a pretty good example of what we can deliver at mid-cycle volumes.

麥克，也祝你感恩節快樂。我想說，大部分細分市場都接近週期中期。我認為生產精度 ag 可能是最接近的。建築業和林業的運作稍高一些，小型農業和草坪的運作稍低一些，這是那裡的方向性崩潰。我認為對我們來說，當我們考慮結構性盈利能力時，我們會在很長一段時間內的周期中的相似點進行衡量。因此，對我們來說，我們將 2024 年視為中期週期的一個很好的代表，我們將其與 2019 年進行比較，這將是我們業務量達到相同水平的最後一年。因此，我們很高興能夠在這些水準上產生 2.5 倍的淨利潤。考慮到這種組合，大多數都接近週期中期。我們覺得這是我們可以在周期中期交付的一個很好的例子。

Yes, Mike, this is Josh. I think just maybe to add on what Brent mentioned. I think importantly here, what we can deliver here at near mid-cycle is fundamentally different than how we performed in the past. So we're talking about roughly $8 billion of net income, $28, $29 of EPS. You can compare that back to 2013, a period we often get compared to, and we are significantly better than that point in time. And I think that's important because you're seeing a significant shift in terms of how do we perform mid-cycle. Obviously, you saw how well we performed in '23. I think the implication is at the bottom of the cycle, we would expect to perform significantly better than we have in the past as well.

是的，麥克，這是喬許。我想也許可以補充布倫特提到的內容。我認為重要的是，我們在接近週期中期所能提供的東西與我們過去的表現根本不同。所以我們談論的是大約 80 億美元的淨利潤，28 美元、29 美元的每股盈餘。你可以將其與 2013 年進行比較，我們經常拿這個時期進行比較，我們比那個時間點好得多。我認為這很重要，因為你會看到我們在周期中期的表現方式發生了重大轉變。顯然，你看到了我們在 23 年的表現有多好。我認為這意味著在周期的底部，我們預計表現也會比過去好得多。

So we're excited about the opportunities ahead of us. It's not just around how we manage the cycle because we see more opportunity for growth from an ability to create value for customers through technology as well as reducing volatility for both customers in their operations and for Deere. So there's a tremendous amount of room for us over the balance of the decade to continue improving.

因此，我們對眼前的機會感到興奮。這不僅僅是我們如何管理週期的問題，因為我們看到了更多的成長機會，因為我們能夠透過科技為客戶創造價值，並減少客戶和迪爾營運的波動性。因此，在這十年的剩餘時間裡，我們還有巨大的空間繼續改進。

That concludes today's call. We appreciate everyone's time and hope you all have a great Thanksgiving.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝大家抽出寶貴的時間，並希望大家度過一個愉快的感恩節。

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。此時您可以斷開連線。