強鹿 (DE) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Deere & Company Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Josh Beal, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加迪爾公司第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在想將電話轉給投資人關係總監 Josh Beal 先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Hello. Welcome, and thank you for joining us on today's call. Joining me on the call today are Josh Jepsen, Chief Financial Officer; Cory Reed, President Worldwide Agriculture and Turf division, Production & Precision Ag Americas and Australia; and Josh Rohleder, Manager of Investor Communications.

你好。歡迎並感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是財務長 Josh Jepsen； Cory Reed，美洲和澳洲生產與精密農業全球農業和草坪部門總裁；喬希‧羅勒 (Josh Rohleder)，投資人溝通經理。

Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's second quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal 2024. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.

今天，我們將仔細研究迪爾第二季的收益，然後花一些時間討論我們的市場和我們目前對 2024 財年的展望。請注意，我們提供了幻燈片來補充今天早上的電話會議。您可以在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 上存取它們。

First, a reminder, this call is broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the expressed written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited.

首先提醒一下，本次通話在網路上進行現場直播，並進行錄音，以供迪爾公司將來傳輸和使用。未經迪爾明確書面同意，嚴禁對本受版權保護的廣播的任何部分進行任何其他使用、錄製或傳輸。

Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

電話會議（包括問答環節）的參與者同意，他們在所有媒體上的肖像和言論可以被儲存並用作財報電話會議的一部分。

This call includes forward-looking statements concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to uncertainties, risks, changes in circumstances and other factors that are difficult to predict.

本次電話會議包括有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述會受到不確定性、風險、環境變化和其他難以預測的因素的影響。

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K, risk factors in the annual Form 10-K as updated by reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊包含在公司最新的 8-K 表格中，年度 10-K 表格中的風險因素已根據向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告進行更新。

This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings and Events.

此電話會議還可能包括不符合美國公認會計準則 (GAAP) 的財務措施。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比 GAAP 措施的調節，已包含在新聞稿中，並發佈在我們網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的「季度收益和事件」下。

I will now turn the call over to Josh Rohleder.

我現在將把電話轉給喬許·羅勒德。

Good morning. John Deere concluded the second quarter with solid execution. Financial results for the quarter included a 21.2% margin for the equipment operations. Trends in the end markets that we serve remain broadly unchanged from last quarter. Ag fundamentals continue to abate leading to more challenging market conditions in the back half of the year.

早安.約翰迪爾以穩健的執行力結束了第二季。本季的財務表現包括設備營運利潤率為 21.2%。我們服務的終端市場的趨勢與上季基本保持不變。農業基本面持續減弱，導致今年下半年市場環境更具挑戰性。

In construction and forestry, fundamentals remained stable at levels supportive of demand across most end markets. Demand shifts, coupled with proactive inventory management are reflected in our production schedules for the balance of the fiscal year, with many product lines anticipating retail demand under production to close out 2024. Notably, our projected financial performance in these dynamic market conditions demonstrates our ability to deliver better results across the business cycle.

在建築和林業方面，基本面保持穩定，並支持大多數終端市場的需求。需求變化加上積極的庫存管理反映在我們本財年剩餘時間的生產計劃中，許多產品線預計到2024 年將滿足零售需求。了我們的能力在整個商業週期中取得更好的成果。

We now begin with Slide 3 and our results for the second quarter. Net sales and revenues were down 12% to $15.235 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were down 15% to $13.61 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $2.37 billion or $8.53 per diluted share.

我們現在從幻燈片 3 和第二季的結果開始。淨銷售額和收入下降 12%，至 152.35 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額下降 15%，至 136.1 億美元。迪爾公司應佔淨利潤為 23.7 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 8.53 美元。

Digging into our individual business segments, we'll start with the Production and Precision Ag business on Slide 4. Net sales of $6.581 billion were down 16% compared to the second quarter last year, primarily due to lower shipment volumes, which were partially offset by price realization. Price realization was positive by just under 2 points. Currency translation was roughly flat.

深入研究我們的各個業務部門，我們將從幻燈片4 上的生產和精密農業業務開始。抵消了出貨量透過價格實現。價格實現上漲略低於 2 個百分點。貨幣換算大致持平。

Operating profit was $1.65 billion, resulting in a 25.1% operating margin for the segment. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and higher production costs. These were partially offset by price realization.

營業利益為 16.5 億美元，該部門的營業利潤率為 25.1%。年比下降主要是由於出貨量下降和生產成本上升。這些被價格實現部分抵銷。

Turning to Small Ag and Turf on Slide 5. Net sales were down 23%, totaling $3.185 billion in the second quarter as a result of lower shipment volumes, partially offset by price realization. Price realization was positive by 1.5 points. Currency translation was roughly flat. Operating profit declined year-over-year to $571 million, resulting in a 17.9% operating margin. The decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes, which were partially offset by price realization.

轉向幻燈片 5 上的 Small Ag 和 Turf。價格實現上漲 1.5 個百分點。貨幣換算大致持平。營業利益較去年同期下降至 5.71 億美元，營業利益率為 17.9%。下降的主要原因是出貨量減少，但部分被價格實現所抵消。

Slide 6 provides our industry outlook for ag and turf markets globally. Across all our major markets, we see continued softening in grower sentiment as the combined impacts of rising global stocks, lower commodity prices, high interest rates and weather volatility weigh on customer purchase decisions. Amidst this backdrop, and rising uncertainty, we're seeing customers exercise greater discretion in their equipment purchases, which is reflected in the changes in our industry guide this quarter.

幻燈片 6 提供了我們對全球農業和草坪市場的行業展望。在我們所有的主要市場中，由於全球庫存上升、大宗商品價格下跌、高利率和天氣波動的綜合影響影響了客戶的購買決策，我們看到種植者情緒持續疲軟。在這種背景和不確定性不斷增加的情況下，我們看到客戶在購買設備時行使了更大的自由裁量權，這反映在我們本季行業指南的變化中。

Large ag equipment industry sales in the U.S. and Canada are now expected to decline 15%, reflecting further demand reduction in the back half of the year, primarily in large tractors. In addition to the aforementioned factors, increases in used inventory levels, particularly late model year machines are having an impact on purchase decisions. These headwinds are partially offset by fleet fundamental tailwinds, including elevated fleet age, stable farmland values and strong farmland balance sheets.

美國和加拿大的大型農業設備產業銷售額預計將下降 15%，反映出下半年需求進一步減少，主要是大型拖拉機的需求。除了上述因素外，二手庫存水準的增加，特別是較晚型號的機器，也會對購買決策產生影響。這些不利因素被船隊基本面的有利因素部分抵消，包括船隊年齡增長、穩定的農地價值和強勁的農地資產負債表。

For Small Ag and Turf in the U.S. and Canada, industry demand estimates are now down 10%. In the quarter, we saw notable reductions in our expectations for the turf segment, particularly riding lawn equipment where high interest rates are impacting purchase behavior following several years of strong market demand.

對於美國和加拿大的小型農業和草坪業，產業需求預估目前下降了 10%。本季度，我們對草坪細分市場的預期顯著下降，尤其是騎行草坪設備，在經歷了幾年的強勁市場需求之後，高利率正在影響購買行為。

In Europe, the industry is now forecasted to be down 15%, reflecting increasing grower uncertainty in the region. Wet conditions have raised concerns for winter crop yields, while elevated input costs are weighing on margin expectations. Despite the softening, variable cash flows remain at roughly 10-year averages, and dairy and livestock fundamentals are expected to improve due to stronger pricing amid lower feed costs.

在歐洲，該行業目前預計將下降 15%，反映出該地區種植者的不確定性不斷增加。潮濕的天氣引發了人們對冬季作物產量的擔憂，而投入成本的上升則影響了利潤預期。儘管情況疲軟，但可變現金流量仍保持在約 10 年平均水平，並且由於飼料成本下降而定價走強，乳製品和畜牧業基本面預計將改善。

In South America, industry sales of tractors and combines are now expected to decline between 15% to 20%. Brazil remains the largest affected market with additional pressure stemming from strong global yields, driving down commodity prices. Both soy and corn margin expectations softened over the quarter. Conditions are further impacted by elevated interest rates and an expected strong recovery in Argentina production levels following last year's drought.

在南美洲，拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷售目前預計將下降 15% 至 20%。巴西仍是受影響最大的市場，全球殖利率強勁帶來額外壓力，壓低大宗商品價格。本季大豆和玉米利潤率預期均有所疲軟。利率上升以及去年乾旱後阿根廷生產水準預計將強勁復甦，進一步影響了情況。

Industry sales in Asia continue to be forecasted down moderately.

預計亞洲的行業銷售額將繼續適度下降。

Next, our segment forecast begin on Slide 7. For Production and Precision Ag, net sales are forecasted to be down between 20% and 25% for the full year. The forecast assumes roughly 1.5% of positive price realization for the full year and minimal currency impact. For the segment's operating margin, our full year forecast is now between 20.5% and 21.5% due to demand softening and proactive inventory management.

接下來，我們的細分市場預測從幻燈片 7 開始。該預測假設全年價格實現約 1.5%，貨幣影響最小。對於該部門的營業利潤率，由於需求疲軟和積極的庫存管理，我們的全年預測目前在 20.5% 至 21.5% 之間。

Slide 8 shows our forecast for the Small Ag and Turf segment. We now expect net sales to be down between 20% and 25%. The guide includes 1.5 points of positive price realization and flat currency translation. The segment's operating margin is now between 13.5% and 14.5%, in line with slowing net sales.

幻燈片 8 顯示了我們對小型農業和草坪領域的預測。我們現在預計淨銷售額將下降 20% 至 25%。該指南包括 1.5 點的正價格實現和固定貨幣換算。該部門的營業利潤率目前介於 13.5% 至 14.5% 之間，與淨銷售額放緩一致。

Shifting to Construction and Forestry on Slide 9. Net sales for the quarter were down 7% year-over-year at $3.844 billion due to lower shipment volumes. Price realization was positive by roughly 0.5 point while currency translation was flat. Operating profit of $668 million was down year-over-year, resulting in a 17.4% operating margin due primarily to lower shipment volumes and higher R&D and SA&G expenses.

投影片 9 轉向建築和林業。物價實現上漲約 0.5 個百分點，而貨幣換算持平。營業利潤年減 6.68 億美元，營業利潤率下降 17.4%，主要是由於出貨量下降以及研發和 SA&G 費用增加。

Slide 10 gives our 2024 Construction and Forestry, industry outlook. Industry sales expectations for earthmoving equipment in the U.S. and Canada remained flat to down 5% while compact construction equipment in the U.S. and Canada is expected to be flat. Industry fundamentals remain vastly unchanged with stabilized demand supported by visibility into the balance of the year, and markets continue to be healthy as U.S. government infrastructure spending further increases. Investments in manufacturing persist and single-family housing starts to improve.

幻燈片 10 給出了我們 2024 年建築和林業行業展望。美國和加拿大土方設備的行業銷售預期仍持平，下降 5%，而美國和加拿大緊湊型建築設備的行業銷售預期則持平。產業基本面基本上保持不變，需求穩定，受今年剩餘時間的可見性支撐，隨著美國政府基礎設施支出進一步增加，市場繼續健康。對製造業的投資持續存在，單戶住宅開始改善。

Tailwinds are tempered by declines in commercial real estate and softening in rental demand throughout the balance of the year. Global forestry markets are expected to be down around 10% as all global markets continue to be challenged. Global road building markets are now forecasted to be flat to down 5% as strong infrastructure spending in the U.S. is offset by continued softness in Western Europe.

今年餘下的時間裡，商業房地產的下滑和租賃需求的疲軟削弱了這一勢頭。由於全球所有市場持續面臨挑戰，全球林業市場預計將下降 10% 左右。由於美國強勁的基礎設施支出被西歐的持續疲軟所抵消，全球道路建設市場目前預計將持平或下降 5%。

Moving to the Construction and Forestry segment outlook on Slide 11. 2024, net sales remain forecasted to be down between 5% and 10%. Net sales guidance for the year includes about 1.5 points of positive price realization and flat currency translation. The segment's operating margin is projected to be around 17%.

轉向幻燈片 11 中的建築和林業部門展望。今年的淨銷售指導包括約 1.5 個百分點的正價格實現和固定的貨幣換算。該部門的營業利潤率預計約為 17%。

Transitioning to our Financial Services operations on Slide 12. Worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere & Company in the second quarter was $162 million. Net income was positively impacted by a higher average portfolio balance, which was partially offset by a higher provision for credit losses and less favorable financing spreads. As a reminder, net income in the second quarter of 2023 was also impacted by a nonrepeating onetime accounting correction.

在投影片 12 轉向我們的金融服務業務。平均投資組合餘額增加對淨利潤產生了積極影響，但信貸損失準備金增加和融資利差較差部分抵消了這一影響。需要提醒的是，2023 年第二季的淨利也受到非重複性一次性會計更正的影響。

For fiscal year 2024, our outlook for net income remains at $770 million as benefits from a higher average portfolio balance offset a higher provision for credit losses and less favorable financing spreads.

對於 2024 財年，我們對淨利潤的展望仍為 7.7 億美元，因為平均投資組合餘額較高的收益抵消了較高的信貸損失撥備和較差的融資利差。

Finally, Slide 13 outlines our guidance for Deere & Company's net income, our effective tax rate and operating cash flow. For fiscal year '24, our outlook for net income is now expected to be approximately $7 billion. Next, our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate between 23% and 25%. And lastly, cash flow from the equipment operations is now projected to be in the range of $7 billion to $7.25 billion.

最後，投影片 13 概述了我們對迪爾公司淨利、有效稅率和經營現金流的指導。對於 24 財年，我們目前預計淨利潤約為 70 億美元。接下來，我們的指導方針納入了 23% 至 25% 之間的有效稅率。最後，設備營運產生的現金流目前預計在 70 億至 72.5 億美元之間。

This concludes our formal comments. We'll now shift to a few topics specific to the quarter. Let's begin with Deere's performance this quarter. We saw net sales decline roughly 15% year-over-year, yet operating margin came in at just over 21%. Across all business segments, we saw better-than-expected performance despite a more challenging macro backdrop.

我們的正式評論到此結束。我們現在將轉向本季特定的幾個主題。讓我們從迪爾本季的業績開始。我們看到淨銷售額年減約 15%，但營業利潤率略高於 21%。儘管宏觀背景更具挑戰性，但在所有業務領域，我們的業績都比預期好。

Josh Beal, can you walk us through what went well for Deere?

喬許·比爾（Josh Beal），您能給我們介紹一下迪爾公司的成功之路嗎？

Yes. Absolutely, Josh. This is really a story of executional discipline across the organization. We were able to outperform on the top line as demand held up slightly better than we expected. In particular, we saw resilient earthmoving and road building market that exceeded our expectations despite a tough competitive environment.

是的。當然，喬許。這確實是整個組織執行紀律的故事。由於需求略好於我們的預期，我們能夠在營收方面表現出色。特別是，儘管競爭環境嚴峻，但我們看到了有彈性的土方和道路建設市場，超出了我們的預期。

Turning to production costs. Freight came in solidly favorable year-over-year. However, as you noted earlier, we are experiencing offsetting headwinds and overheads as we adjust production to moderating demand. All that being said, it's worth noting that this quarter's performance with equipment operations margin over 21% ranks as one of the best quarters in company history. We're encouraged by the start to the year, and we're focused on executing our plan in the remaining 2 quarters.

轉向生產成本。貨運量較去年同期非常有利。然而，正如您之前指出的，當我們調整生產以適應需求放緩時，我們正在經歷抵消逆風和管理成本。話雖如此，值得注意的是，本季的設備營運利潤率超過 21%，堪稱公司歷史上最好的季度之一。我們對今年的開局感到鼓舞，我們將專注於在剩下的兩個季度執行我們的計劃。

Thanks, Josh. That's a great summary and a great point you bring up. It's clearly been a strong executional start for the year, but we've revised our full year guidance.

謝謝，喬許。這是一個很好的總結，也是你提出的一個很好的觀點。這顯然是今年的一個強有力的執行開始，但我們修改了全年指導。

What's driving the delta in the back half of the fiscal year?

是什麼推動了本財年下半年的三角洲成長？

Right. The forecast change is really volume-driven, primarily in our ag and turf segments. Underlying the demand decline is a tougher backdrop in global ag, which as you mentioned in your opening comments, has continued to weigh on our customer base. Uncertainty has caused a decline in farmer sentiment. And as a result, we are seeing a softer retail environment today than we did just 6 months ago.

正確的。預測的變化實際上是由數量驅動的，主要是在我們的農業和草坪領域。需求下降的背後是全球農業情況更加嚴峻，正如您在開場白中提到的那樣，這繼續給我們的客戶群帶來壓力。不確定性導致農民情緒下降。因此，我們今天看到的零售環境比 6 個月前更加疲軟。

Primary crop margins globally are forecasted to be down. [Stock fees] are expected to be above historical averages, thanks to multiple years of favorable growing conditions and record global yields, used inventories have risen and persistently high interest rates are impacting purchase decisions.

預計全球主要作物利潤率將下降。由於多年來有利的成長條件和創紀錄的全球收益率，[庫存費用]預計將高於歷史平均水平，二手庫存增加，持續高利率正在影響購買決策。

Despite all these headwinds, we experienced strong demand in the first half of the year, albeit down from the highs of 2023, which drove solid first half production volumes for ag and turf.

儘管有所有這些不利因素，但我們在上半年仍經歷了強勁的需求，儘管需求低於 2023 年的高點，這推動了農業和草坪上半年的穩定產量。

Given the environment that I just mentioned, we do expect incremental demand decline in the back half of 2024. Notably, our production volumes will decline more than demand in the back half as we're taking proactive steps to drive down field inventories. This is true for all of our major markets, South America, Europe and also now for North America large tractors. We believe this approach best positions us to build the retail demand for '25.

鑑於我剛才提到的環境，我們確實預計 2024 年下半年增量需求會下降。這對我們所有的主要市場、南美、歐洲以及現在的北美大型拖拉機來說都是如此。我們相信這種方法最有利於我們建立 25 世紀的零售需求。

This is Jepsen here. Maybe a couple of things to add. First, I want to commend our employees for the work they've done to drive the overall decrementals for the business despite the velocity of declines we're experiencing this year. We're delivering value for our customers and driving operating margins that are structurally better at this point in the cycle than ever before.

這是傑普森。也許需要補充幾件事。首先，我要讚揚我們的員工為推動業務整體下滑所做的工作，儘管今年我們經歷了下滑的速度。我們正在為客戶創造價值，並推動營運利潤率在結構上比以往任何時候都更好。

However, there's always opportunity to do better, and we'll continue to take action on costs throughout the remainder of the year while still investing in our future.

然而，總是有機會做得更好，我們將在今年剩餘時間內繼續對成本採取行動，同時仍對未來進行投資。

Thanks for that additional color, Josh. And you make a great point about the decrementals. We're definitely being impacted by more definitely being impacted more significantly than usual by the unfavorable mix associated with higher margin products and regions declining more significantly.

感謝喬希提供的額外顏色。你對減量提出了很好的觀點。我們肯定會受到與高利潤產品和地區下降更顯著相關的不利組合的影響，這比平時更明顯。

But I think the key differentiator this year is around more proactive management. Both you and Beal alluded to the rate at which we're bringing in production.

但我認為今年的關鍵差異在於更積極主動的管理。你和比爾都提到了我們的生產速度。

Cory, I'd like to bring you into the conversation now. You've been in the ag business nearly your entire career. What is different in terms of how we have managed the changing environment in this cycle?

科里，我現在想邀請你加入我們的對話。您幾乎整個職業生涯都在從事農業行業。在這個週期中，我們管理不斷變化的環境的方式有何不同？

Yes. Thanks, Josh. We are coming down from a period of high demand, and historically, we would have, as an industry, been slow to react to that change. Often, we would drive higher levels of field inventory to the detriment of the following years.

是的。謝謝，喬許。我們正在經歷一個高需求時期，從歷史上看，作為一個行業，我們對這種變化的反應會很緩慢。通常，我們會提高現場庫存水平，從而損害接下來的幾年。

Within Deere, we're managing this year differently, which is a testament to the fact that both we and our dealers have learned from the past cycles. This is probably best exemplified by our decision to underproduce large tractor retail demand in North America in the back half of the year.

在迪爾內部，我們今年的管理方式有所不同，這證明了我們和我們的經銷商都從過去的周期中吸取了教訓。我們決定在今年下半年抑制北美大型拖拉機零售需求，這可能是最好的例子。

We ended 2023 with really low levels of large tractor inventory, but we think it's prudent to drive those levels even lower as we close out our '24. The key here is that by staying ahead of demand changes, we're giving ourselves the optionality to react most efficiently to whichever way the market moves in the next year.

2023 年結束時，大型拖拉機庫存水準非常低，但我們認為在 24 年結束時將這些水準進一步降低是謹慎的做法。這裡的關鍵是，透過領先於需求變化，我們可以選擇對明年市場的走勢做出最有效的反應。

I think it's important to note that we're not implying that we know where 2025 demand will be, frankly, this season's crops aren't even in the ground yet. So it's still way too early to opine on that. But we're focused on proactive management to ensure that we keep inventories in balance with demand. This is a key component to ensuring better structural profitability throughout the cycle for our business.

我認為值得注意的是，我們並不是在暗示我們知道 2025 年的需求情況，坦白說，本季的農作物甚至還沒有長到地裡。所以現在對此發表意見還為時過早。但我們專注於主動管理，確保庫存與需求保持平衡。這是確保我們業務整個週期中更好的結構性獲利能力的關鍵組成部分。

This is Jepsen. One other thing to highlight beyond the current environment, and where we see the long-term strategy leading us, is related to technology and how we engage with our customers. We're starting to think about market share, not only as the number of units sold but as the number of acres covered by Deere products and technologies as a percentage of total acres farmed.

這是傑普森。除了當前環境之外，我們看到長期策略引導我們的另一件事與技術以及我們與客戶的互動方式有關。我們開始考慮市場​​份額，不僅是銷售的單位數量，而且是迪爾產品和技術覆蓋的英畝數佔耕種總面積的百分比。

In the future, we're going to continue accelerating the utilization of technology as we grow our precision upgrade retrofit business as well as Solution-as-a-Service offerings.

未來，隨著我們發展精密升級改造業務以及解決方案即服務產品，我們將繼續加速技術的利用。

Our engaged acre journey helps demonstrate the progress we've made in delivering value for customers and making their jobs easier to do. In fact, at the end of the quarter, we now cover over 415 million engaged acres globally, and importantly, highly engaged acres which, as a reminder, means 3 production steps and value-creating activities in the John Deere operations center are performed, make up over 25% of the engaged acres amount, having grown by double digits this past quarter alone.

我們的參與英畝之旅有助於展示我們在為客戶提供價值並讓他們的工作更輕鬆地完成方面所取得的進展。事實上，截至本季末，我們現在在全球覆蓋了超過 4.15 億英畝的參與土地，重要的是，高度參與的土地，這意味著在約翰迪爾營運中心執行 3 個生產步驟和價值創造活動，佔已投入土地面積的25% 以上，光是上個季度就成長了兩位數。

While all parts of the world are seeing growth, Brazil is growing faster than North America on both engaged and highly engaged acres, which is a positive sign as we bring more technology to the market, in particular with satellite communications coming soon. And customers there see increased value given the multiple crop harvest each year as well as the ability to improve efficiency, profitability and sustainability in their operations.

雖然世界各地都在成長，但巴西在參與度和高度參與度面積上的成長速度都快於北美，這是一個積極的信號，因為我們將更多技術推向市場，特別是即將推出的衛星通信。鑑於每年多種作物的豐收，以及提高營運效率、盈利能力和可持續性的能力，那裡的客戶看到了價值的增加。

Those are excellent proof points. But one thing we haven't covered yet is costs. A key benefit of proactive cycle management should theoretically be the associated cost savings. We're seeing another year of positive price cost.

這些都是極好的證據。但我們還沒有討論的一件事是成本。從理論上講，主動週期管理的一個主要好處應該是節省相關成本。我們將看到另一年的正價格成本。

But can you break down what's driving that positive differential for us?

但您能否分析一下是什麼推動了我們的正面差異？

Definitely, yes. That's a great point, Josh, and I'm happy to start. I'd begin by referencing back to what Josh Jepsen talked about earlier, along with structural cost reductions, we continue to prioritize managing to our structure lines, which essentially means as production and sales come in, we pull levers to bring in costs.

絕對是的。這是一個很好的觀點，喬什，我很高興開始。我首先要回顧一下喬許傑普森之前談到的內容，除了結構性成本削減之外，我們繼續優先考慮對結構線的管理，這本質上意味著隨著生產和銷售的增加，我們會拉動槓桿來降低成本。

Our speed in pulling those levers and the subsequent timing of those actions hitting the bottom line is a top priority right now. The outcomes of these efforts show up in the production cost bar in our quarterly earnings bridge.

我們拉動這些槓桿的速度以及隨後採取這些行動達到底線的時間是目前的首要任務。這些努力的成果顯示在我們季度收益橋的生產成本欄中。

Given that there's a lot that goes into that cost category, it might be helpful to walk through a few of the notable components.

鑑於該成本類別涉及很多內容，因此瀏覽一些值得注意的組件可能會有所幫助。

Starting with freight and material, we're beginning to see the benefits of our ongoing cost reduction efforts. We're encouraged by the opportunity to get back significant cost on freight and logistics as well as in our material spend. We're truly building strategic partnerships with our supply base as we jointly work to structure sourcing in a way that ultimately creates value for both parties.

從貨運和材料開始，我們開始看到我們持續降低成本的努力所帶來的好處。我們對有機會收回大量的貨運和物流成本以及材料支出感到鼓舞。我們正在與我們的供應基地真正建立戰略合作夥伴關係，共同努力以最終為雙方創造價值的方式建構採購。

Coupled with our dual sourcing strategies, we've been able to enhance supply chain resiliency in tandem with cost savings, which has been crucial to optimizing returns amidst lower demand.

結合我們的雙重採購策略，我們能夠在節省成本的同時增強供應鏈的彈性，這對於在需求較低的情況下優化回報至關重要。

Those cost reduction efforts are important given we have seen some manufacturing overhead efficiencies associated with managing to lower production levels. This references back to my comment on the timing of lever pulling and the timing of those actions impacting financials.

鑑於我們已經看到與管理降低生產水準相關的一些製造費用效率，這些降低成本的努力非常重要。這引用了我對拉動槓桿的時機以及影響財務的這些行動的時機的評論。

We're actively taking steps to manage costs as we see demand change, essentially rightsizing the cost structure for a given production level. But in a year when we're moving down in volume, we've experienced some inefficiency as we make those adjustments. This headwind is showing up in the production cost bar as well, largely offsetting the gains that we're seeing in freight, logistics and material spend this year.

當我們看到需求變化時，我們正在積極採取措施來管理成本，本質上是根據給定的生產水準調整成本結構。但在我們銷售下降的一年裡，我們在進行這些調整時遇到了一些低效率的情況。這種不利因素也出現在生產成本欄中，很大程度上抵消了我們今年在貨運、物流和材料支出方面看到的收益。

This is Jepsen. Maybe one thing worth mentioning is we also pull levers on assets. And that's evident when you look at our cash flow guidance change, which is now less in this guide compared to the change in net income. This is reflective of the fact we're starting to see our inventory come down following our production rate reductions in the first half of the year, creating a source of cash for the business.

這是傑普森。也許值得一提的是，我們也對資產施加槓桿。當您查看我們的現金流量指導變化時，這一點很明顯，與淨利潤的變化相比，本指南中的現金流量指導變化較少。這反映出這樣一個事實：隨著上半年生產力的降低，我們的庫存開始下降，為業務創造了現金來源。

We're continuing to manage working capital and expect further reductions throughout the remainder of the year.

我們將繼續管理營運資金，並預計在今年剩餘時間內進一步減少。

Perfect. And in the spirit of inventory management, I'd like to briefly touch on new and used inventories. Josh Beal, could you give us an update on where we stand today and what to expect in the back half of the year?

完美的。本著庫存管理的精神，我想簡要地談談新庫存和舊庫存。 Josh Beal，您能為我們介紹一下我們今天的最新情況以及下半年的期望嗎？

Yes, absolutely. And I'll start with new equipment. In North America, large ag, we're seeing intra-season inventory build as expected, albeit below industry levels and inventory to sales ratios -- ratio increases in line with historical norms. That said, given our proactive underproduction previously discussed, we expect these numbers to fall by year-end with beginning 2025 inventory to sales ratios down significantly from where they stand today.

是的，一點沒錯。我將從新設備開始。在北美，大型農業公司，我們看到季內庫存按預期增加，儘管低於行業水平，庫存與銷售比率也符合歷史正常水平。也就是說，考慮到我們之前討論的主動生產不足，我們預計這些數字到年底將會下降，2025 年初的庫存與銷售比率將比目前的水平大幅下降。

Furthermore, we expect to see the largest decline in new inventory levels to occur during the fourth quarter as normal year-end seasonal declines are amplified by our planned underproduction for the year.

此外，我們預計第四季度新庫存水準將出現最大降幅，因為我們今年計劃的生產不足會放大正常的年末季節性下降。

On the used inventory side, we've seen total used units up year-over-year. While combines are up from decade lows, they remain below the highs seen in the last downturn. Meanwhile, used high horsepower tractors have increased more rapidly and are skewing more predominantly to later models, driving up the average value of the equipment. The trend that we're seeing in used high horsepower tractors was a key factor in our decision to underproduce retail demand in North America.

在二手庫存方面，我們看到二手庫存總量年增。雖然聯合收割機價格已從十年低點回升，但仍低於上次經濟低迷時期的高點。同時，二手大馬力拖拉機的成長速度更快，並且更多地轉向較新的型號，從而推高了設備的平​​均價值。我們所看到的二手大馬力拖拉機的趨勢是我們決定抑制北美零售需求的關鍵因素。

Josh, this is Cory. Just one thing to add here is as you look at the industry as a whole, we've been relatively disciplined. Our large ag new inventory in North America currently represents less than half of the industry's unit inventory and significantly below the industry on an inventory to sales ratio basis. This is reflective of the discipline we're showing in this cycle.

喬什，這是科里。這裡要補充的一件事是，從整個產業來看，我們一直相對自律。目前，我們在北美的大型農業新庫存僅佔行業單位庫存的一半以下，且庫存與銷售比率顯著低於行業。這反映了我們在本週期中所表現出的紀律。

And on the used side, our dealers are hyper-focused on used inventory, managing them appropriately to ensure that they maintain a healthy trade ladder for their customers. For example, this cycle, we put a strong focus on our dealer pool funds to help manage used inventories. Dealers accumulate these funds based on new equipment sales and then use them to create competitive packages to help move used equipment.

在二手方面，我們的經銷商高度關註二手庫存，對其進行適當管理，以確保為客戶維持健康的貿易階梯。例如，在這個週期中，我們將重點放在經銷商池資金上，以幫助管理二手庫存。經銷商根據新設備銷售累積這些資金，然後用它們創建有競爭力的套餐，以幫助移動二手設備。

Our dealers prudently build up these funds over the last several years, nearly tripling their total available balance which is now providing valuable support in the current market environment.

我們的經銷商在過去幾年中謹慎地累積了這些資金，使其可用餘額總額幾乎增加了兩倍，現在為當前的市場環境提供了寶貴的支持。

Thanks, Cory and Josh. That's a good reminder on intra-year seasonality swings and how those play into our larger production and inventory management.

謝謝，科里和喬許。這是對年內季節性波動以及這些波動如何影響我們更大的生產和庫存管理的一個很好的提醒。

Shifting now to a region we haven't talked much about yet. I'd like to focus on Brazil. There's been quite a bit of buzz down there between first crop harvest, Agrishow 2 weeks ago, and the recent devastating flooding in Rio Grande do Sul.

現在轉移到我們還沒有談論太多的地區。我想重點關注巴西。從兩週前的第一批農作物收穫、Agrishow 到最近在南里奧格蘭德州發生的毀滅性洪水，這裡一直熱鬧非凡。

Josh Beal, do you want to kick us off with a quick overview on the state of the business there?

喬許·比爾（Josh Beal），您想先簡單介紹一下那裡的業務狀況嗎？

Yes, happy to. And definitely a dynamic market to unpack. And I'd like to first start by extending our deepest sympathies to those affected by the tragic flooding you mentioned, Josh, including a significant number of our employees, customers and suppliers. We want to wish everyone well in the recovery, and I want to emphasize that the safety and security of our employees is our first priority as we assess and respond to the impacts of the event.

是的，很高興。這絕對是一個充滿活力的市場。首先，我想向喬希提到的遭受悲慘洪水影響的人們表示最深切的同情，其中包括我們的大量員工、客戶和供應商。我們祝福每個人康復順利，我想強調，在我們評估和應對事件的影響時，員工的安全是我們的首要任務。

Operationally, while we do have facilities in the region, we do not anticipate any long-term impacts to the business at this time.

在營運方面，雖然我們在該地區確實設有設施，但我們預計目前不會對業務產生任何長期影響。

Turning to the broader Brazilian ag environment. Soybean farmers saw profitability decline due to adverse weather conditions and global supply surpluses. That said, we do expect some favorable offsets with a strong cotton crop this year and a better-than-expected corn crop, which should provide some support to farmer sentiment for the 2024 season.

轉向更廣泛的巴西農業環境。由於惡劣的天氣條件和全球供應過剩，豆農的獲利能力下降。儘管如此，我們確實預計今年棉花產量強勁和玉米產量好於預期將產生一些有利的抵消作用，這應該會為 2024 年種植季的農民情緒提供一些支撐。

All in, ag equipment retail demand in the region continues to decline, driving the change in our industry guide.

總而言之，該地區的農業設備零售需求持續下降，推動了我們行業指南的變化。

While production cuts came through as expected for the quarter, retail sales came in lighter than anticipated. Nevertheless, we remain committed to underproducing retail demand in the region this year as we target year-end inventory levels, supportive of building in line with retail in 2025. Ultimately, we'll see more of the planned inventory reduction for the region in the back half of the year.

儘管本季的減產符合預期，但零售額卻低於預期。儘管如此，我們仍然致力於抑制今年該地區的零售需求，因為我們的目標是年終庫存水平，支持與 2025 年零售業的建設保持一致。回到了半年。

Perfect. Thanks for setting the stage, Josh. Now Cory, I believe you were just down there for Agrishow. Could you give us an update on what you saw there and the sentiment you were hearing from dealers and customers?

完美的。感謝您搭建舞台，喬許。科里，我相信你剛去那裡參加農業展。您能否向我們介紹您在那裡看到的情況以及您從經銷商和客戶那裡聽到的情緒的最新情況？

Absolutely. That sentiment was positive, Josh. This is not to say that we've reached an inflection point, given Josh Beal's comments earlier about retail activity. But I think the biggest takeaway was the excitement that we're seeing for our latest tech offerings. In fact, we're taking preorder interest for our StarLink connectivity solution and ended up oversubscribed by the first day of the show. We similarly sold out of our allotments for See & Spray Select and our Precision Ag Essentials bundle that was also a great success.

絕對地。這種情緒是正面的，喬許。鑑於喬什·比爾（Josh Beal）早些時候對零售活動的評論，這並不是說我們已經達到了拐點。但我認為最大的收穫是我們對最新科技產品的興奮。事實上，我們對 StarLink 連接解決方案的預訂很感興趣，並在展會第一天就獲得了超額認購。同樣，我們也售空了 See & Spray Select 和 Precision Ag Essentials 套裝的配額，這也取得了巨大成功。

Fundamentally, we're at the forefront of bringing our full ecosystem of solutions to the Brazilian market, and our customers there are very calculated in their investments. They adopt when it makes financial sense, and given the double or sometimes even triple crop rotations they're able to achieve, the payback for much of our technology and equipment is significantly faster than in the North American market.

從根本上說，我們處於將完整的解決方案生態系統引入巴西市場的最前沿，而且我們的客戶在投資時也非常精打細算。當具有經濟意義時，他們就會採用，考慮到他們能夠實現兩倍甚至三倍的作物輪作，我們的大部分技術和設備的回報速度明顯快於北美市場。

I'll take think sprayers as an example. In the U.S., the corner soybean farmer may only spray 3x annually. But in Brazil, a farmer on a soybean and cotton rotation could spray as much as 20x a year. This is why we're so focused on bringing our customers the solutions and connectivity that enables them to drive more value from their operations.

我以噴霧器為例。在美國，角落的大豆種植者每年可能只噴灑 3 次農藥。但在巴西，輪作大豆和棉花的農民每年可以噴灑 20 次農藥。這就是為什麼我們如此專注於為客戶提供解決方案和連接，使他們能夠從營運中獲得更多價值。

And the great thing is that tech adoption was only half the story at the show at Agrishow. We saw equipment order interest rebound from last year's lows, including some of our most productive product offerings like our new 9RX tractors and X9 combines. Adding in the strong fundamentals and demand for sugarcane harvesters, we feel optimistic about the future of agriculture in Brazil.

最棒的是，技術的採用只是 Agrishow 展會故事的一半。我們看到設備訂單興趣從去年的低點反彈，包括我們的一些生產力最高的產品，例如我們的新型 9RX 拖拉機和 X9 聯合收割機。加上強勁的基本面和對甘蔗收割機的需求，我們對巴西農業的未來感到樂觀。

So while the competitive landscape continues to expand in the region, we feel confident not only in our ability to deliver additional value to our customers via our integrated solutions, but also through the strong dealer network that we've worked hard to build out. These dealers are providing industry differentiated support to our customers, helping to drive uptime and reliability required in an environment where there's no off-season.

因此，儘管該地區的競爭格局不斷擴大，但我們不僅對透過整合解決方案為客戶提供額外價值的能力充滿信心，而且對透過我們努力建立的強大經銷商網路也充滿信心。這些經銷商為我們的客戶提供行業差異化支持，幫助提高無淡季環境中所需的正常運作時間和可靠性。

Awesome. That's really great insight, Cory. Now for the last topic, I'd like to briefly touch on Construction and Forestry, which is relatively stable this quarter. Earthmoving end markets remain largely unchanged quarter-over-quarter, while road building has seen some minimal shifts in North America, albeit remaining at strong demand levels. .

驚人的。這真是偉大的洞察力，科里。現在，對於最後一個主題，我想簡單談談本季相對穩定的建築業和林業。土方終端市場環比基本上保持不變，而道路建設在北美出現了一些微小的變化，儘管仍保持強勁的需求水準。 。

Josh Beal, can you give us a little more color on this part of the business and what we should expect for the balance of the year?

喬許·比爾（Josh Beal），您能給我們更多關於這部分業務的資訊以及我們對今年剩餘時間的預期嗎？

Definitely, Josh. The key takeaway for the quarter is what you noted, minimal change at healthy levels of demand. As we've noted on previous calls, we expected some decline year-over-year unrelated to end market demand as we build less inventory this year relative to 2023.

當然，喬許。本季的關鍵要點是您所指出的，在健康的需求水準下變化最小。正如我們在先前的電話會議中指出的那樣，我們預計同比會出現一些下降，與終端市場需求無關，因為我們今年的庫存相對 2023 年有所減少。

While contractor backlogs remain healthy and utilization at sustainable levels, we've seen rental CapEx come in, in our new and used inventory levels currently around long-term averages. Our guide is also supported by an order book for earthmoving equipment that extends out approximately 4 months into the fourth quarter.

雖然承包商積壓訂單保持健康且利用率處於可持續水平，但我們已經看到租賃資本支出增加，目前我們的新庫存和二手庫存水平約為長期平均水平。我們的指南還得到了土方設備訂單的支持，該訂單持續到第四季度約 4 個月。

The only other point I'd highlight is around pricing. In addition to strong demand, we're also seeing strong competition, bolstered by industry inventory levels that have recovered and a shift in the competitive landscape with a stronger U.S. dollar.

我要強調的唯一另一點是定價。除了強勁的需求之外，我們還看到了激烈的競爭，這得益於行業庫存水準的恢復以及美元走強帶來的競爭格局的轉變。

However, we remain committed to a disciplined approach that balances both market share and price. Overall, our earthmoving and road building segments continue to deliver structurally better financial performance than we've seen historically.

然而，我們仍然致力於採取嚴格的方法來平衡市場份額和價格。總體而言，我們的土方工程和道路建設部門繼續提供比歷史上更好的結構性財務表現。

Thanks, Josh. That's a great update. And before we open the line to questions, Josh Jepsen, any final comments?

謝謝，喬許。這是一個很棒的更新。在我們開始提問之前，喬什·傑普森（Josh Jepsen）有什麼最後的評論嗎？

Certainly. It was a good second quarter with strong results to round out the first half of the year. Despite a dynamic global ag market and competitive construction environment in North America, we performed at structurally higher levels across the business. Given the pullback we've seen in ag markets, we now expect to end the year moderately below mid-cycle levels.

當然。第二季表現良好，上半年業績強勁。儘管全球農業市場充滿活力，北美建築環境競爭激烈，但我們的整個業務在結構上仍處於較高水平。鑑於我們在農業市場看到的回調，我們現在預計今年年底將略低於週期中期水準。

This quarter, we also returned approximately $1.5 billion in cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases and remain committed to returning cash to shareholders while concurrently investing in the business via value-accretive CapEx and R&D spending.

本季度，我們也透過股利和股票回購向股東返還約 15 億美元現金，並持續致力於向股東返還現金，同時透過增值資本支出和研發支出投資於業務。

I want to reinforce that we're not new to market cycles, and we've learned from the past, making us a more resilient and better prepared business than ever before. Our proactive management reflects this and demonstrates that we are structurally better business today with equipment margins forecast just above 18% despite unfavorable mix in a rapidly shifting global environment. And as a result, we feel that we are putting ourselves in the best position possible for the future.

我想強調的是，我們對市場週期並不陌生，我們從過去吸取了教訓，使我們的企業比以往任何時候都更有彈性、準備更充分。我們的積極主動的管理反映了這一點，並表明我們今天的業務結構更好，儘管在快速變化的全球環境中存在不利的組合，但設備利潤率預計略高於 18%。因此，我們認為我們正在將自己置於未來的最佳位置。

Regardless of where we are in the cycle, we remain committed to our customers and their needs, ensuring our solutions drive real value to their business while Deere and our dealers provide the support they need to be successful. The progress on technology adoption and utilization -- earlier with our engaged and highly engaged acre progress, provides evidence of the value in our integrated offering of equipment, technology and digital tools.

無論我們處於週期的哪個階段，我們都始終致力於滿足客戶及其需求，確保我們的解決方案為他們的業務帶來真正的價值，同時迪爾和我們的經銷商為他們提供成功所需的支持。技術採用和利用方面的進展——早些時候我們參與和高度參與的英畝進展，證明了我們綜合提供的設備、技術和數位工具的價值。

At the end of the day, we're focused on doing more so our customers can do less, and we are more excited every day about the vast amount of opportunities that lay in front of us.

歸根結底，我們專注於做得更多，這樣我們的客戶就可以做得更少，而且我們每天都對擺在我們面前的大量機會感到更加興奮。

Thanks, Josh. Now let's open it up to questions from our investors.

謝謝，喬許。現在讓我們接受投資人的提問。

We're now ready to open -- to begin the Q&A portion of the call. The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure. (Operator Instructions)

我們現在準備開始電話會議的問答部分。接線員將指導您了解投票程序。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

I'm wondering if you could just expand on the...

我想知道你是否可以擴展...

Jerry, we lost you. You've broken up a little bit. We can't hear what you're saying. Amanda, we might need to move back to Jerry. Jerry, if you can hear us, you're not coming through.

傑瑞，我們失去了你。你們已經分手了一點點。我們聽不到你在說什麼。阿曼達，我們可能需要搬回傑瑞。傑瑞，如果你聽得到我們的聲音，那你就沒有接通。

Our next question comes from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安吉爾·卡斯蒂略。

This is Grace on for Angel. I think your updated guidance for Production and Precision Ag, I believe, implies 50% decrementals and high teens margins. So can you talk about the underlying drivers of that? And what you see as ultimately the normalized level of profitability for the segment? And as part of that, what gives you comfort that we will see margins move lower to the low to mid-teens range?

這是《天使》中的格蕾絲。我認為你們對生產和精密農業的最新指導意味著 50% 的減量和高十幾位數的利潤率。那麼您能談談其根本驅動因素嗎？您認為該細分市場最終的正常獲利水準是多少？作為其中的一部分，當我們看到利潤率下降到十幾歲左右的範圍時，是什麼讓您感到安慰？

Yes. Thanks for the question. Yes. I mean really, what we saw in Production of Precision Ag in the quarter was, as we described in our comments, some further softening in markets really around the globe, and you saw that reflected in our industry guides.

是的。謝謝你的提問。是的。我的意思是，正如我們在評論中所描述的那樣，我們在本季度精密農業生產中看到的是，全球市場確實進一步疲軟，您在我們的行業指南中也看到了這一點。

North America, Brazil and Europe, we saw pullbacks across all those markets. And as a result, we've adjusted production accordingly, again, we talked on the call. Our #1 focus is to position ourselves to build in line with retail demand. And so as we've seen those shifts.

北美、巴西和歐洲，我們都看到了所有這些市場的回檔。因此，我們再次相應地調整了生產，我們在電話中進行了交談。我們的第一個重點是根據零售需求進行定位。正如我們所看到的這些轉變。

In the end markets, we're making those adjustments, again, to keep us in line. I think the one notable change probably from some of our prior commentary is around North America. Really, the softening that we saw in that market was around the large ag -- large tractors, excuse me. And as we saw in that pullback, we've also seen some increases in high-horsepower tractor, used inventory. And as a result, we've made the decision to underproduce retail demand in large tractors this year in North America to bring down our ending inventory levels.

在終端市場，我們再次進行這些調整，以保持一致。我認為與我們之前的一些評論相比，一個顯著的變化可能是在北美地區。事實上，我們在該市場看到的疲軟是圍繞著大型農機——大型拖拉機，對不起。正如我們在這次回調中看到的那樣，我們還看到大馬力拖拉機和二手庫存增加。因此，我們決定今年北美大型拖拉機的零售需求不足，以降低期末庫存水準。

We think that positions us best for 2025, again, given what we're seeing in the market. And that's reflected in some of the declines that you've seen. We were first half of the year, producing at healthy levels in line with strong retail demand. We have seen some pullback in what you're seeing in terms of decrementals and that change is related to that pullback that we've seen.

考慮到我們在市場上所看到的情況，我們認為這再次使我們在 2025 年處於最佳位置。這反映在你所看到的一些下降。今年上半年，我們的生產處於健康水平，符合強勁的零售需求。我們已經看到您所看到的減量出現了一些回調，並且這種變化與我們所看到的回調有關。

Yes, Grace. This is Josh Jepsen, maybe just to comment around decrementals. I think full year, I think we expect PPA to do around 44%. I think the back half is actually pretty similar to that, so not materially different. And maybe important just compare juxtaposition terms of the structural profitability of that business is if we look back to 2020, the business was around, call it, 90% of mid-cycle, which is not terribly far from where we are today for Production and Precision Ag. And we did around 16% operating margin kind of adjusted for some onetime things that occurred during that time.

是的，格蕾絲。我是喬許傑普森 (Josh Jepsen)，也許只是為了評論減量。我認為全年，我們預計 PPA 會達到 44% 左右。我認為後半部分實際上與前半部分非常相似，所以沒有本質上的不同。也許重要的是，比較該業務的結構盈利能力的並置條件是，如果我們回顧 2020 年，該業務大約處於週期中期的 90%，這與我們今天的生產和精密銀。我們的營業利潤率約為 16%，針對那段時間發生的一些一次性事件進行了調整。

So 16%, today, middle of our guide is 21%. So I think underlies the shift we're seeing from a structural profitability perspective, even with, as we noted earlier, mix that has been less than favorable for us, both from products as well as regional shifts.

所以今天是 16%，我們指南的中間是 21%。因此，我認為，這是我們從結構性盈利能力角度看到的轉變的基礎，儘管正如我們之前指出的那樣，無論是產品還是區域轉變，組合對我們來說都不太有利。

Our next question comes from Mig Dobre with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mig Dobre 和 Baird。

I'm wondering if you can maybe put a finer point and help us understand how large is this underproduction in both PPA and SAP? What percentage of revenue or the revenue decline, if you would, is related to this under production?

我想知道您是否可以提出更詳細的觀點並幫助我們了解 PPA 和 SAP 的生產不足程度有多大？如果您願意的話，收入或收入下降的百分比與生產中的此相關？

And as we're looking at your disclosure on Slide 15 for dealer inventories, how should we think about that 2-wheel drive tractor number exiting fiscal '24?

當我們查看您在投影片 15 上揭露的經銷商庫存時，我們應該如何看待 24 財年退出的兩輪驅動拖拉機數量？

Thanks, Mig. Appreciate the questions. Yes, looking at total underproduction for the year, and starting with the large ag segment. Globally, Mig if you think about it, worldwide underproduction to complete good retail sales is going to be in the high single digits worldwide. North America, large tractors, it's probably in that range, maybe a little bit higher.

謝謝，米格。感謝您提出的問題。是的，看看今年的總產量不足，並從大型農業部門開始。從全球範圍來看，米格，如果你想一想，全球範圍內完成良好零售銷售的生產不足將處於高個位數。北美，大型拖拉機，可能在這個範圍內，也許更高一點。

On the higher end in South America and Brazil, as we bring down inventory in combines and tractors, and similarly, in Region 2 -- or sorry, excuse me, in Europe, our Region 2, as we call it, tractors kind of in line with that guide in the midsize. Combine is a little bit heavier. But again, globally, if you look at Production and Precision Ag, it's about high single digit under production.

在南美和巴西的高端市場，我們降低了聯合收割機和拖拉機的庫存，同樣，在第 2 區——或者抱歉，對不起，在歐洲，我們稱之為第 2 區，拖拉機在某種程度上與中型指南一致。聯合起來有點重。但同樣，在全球範圍內，如果你看看生產和精密農業，你會發現產量大約是高個位數。

As you referenced on the slide, and the current levels of inventory for tractors, we're about 30% right now. I think 31% on the slide there. And that's pretty normal for this level of seasonal build, maybe a little bit higher relative to the historical average, but kind of in that range.

正如您在幻燈片中提到的，以及拖拉機目前的庫存水平，我們現在約為 30%。我認為 31% 就在幻燈片上。對於這種水平的季節性建設來說，這是很正常的，可能相對於歷史平均水平略高一些，但在這個範圍內。

I think notably, we're going to see a significant reduction in that ending inventory level in the back half of the year. Last year, row-crop tractors were about 15% inventory to sales as we close out 2023. This year, it's probably going to be closer to 10% and on a unit basis, significant under production.

我認為值得注意的是，我們將在今年下半年看到期末庫存水準大幅下降。去年，到 2023 年結束時，中耕作物拖拉機的庫存佔銷售額的比例約為 15%。

Yes, Mig, this is Cory. I'll just give a finer point to you on the inventory side. I mentioned that we're on a unit basis, significantly below -- we're below the total in terms of the rest of the industry. On a unit basis for row crops, as an example, we're sitting at half of the industry new inventory, but we're taking that down even further. So as Josh mentioned, we're going to go from that range of 15-plus percent down to 10% at the end of the year.

是的，米格，這是科里。我將在庫存方面向您提供更詳細的觀點。我提到過，我們以單位為基礎，明顯低於行業其他公司的總數。以中耕作物為例，我們的新庫存佔產業新庫存的一半，但我們正在進一步降低這個數字。正如 Josh 所提到的，我們將在年底將這一比例從 15% 以上降至 10%。

The net effect of that, obviously, is lower productions in the back half, while maintaining good margins throughout PPA, but putting us in the best position going forward relative to responding to retail demand in the future. So we're taking those inventories down. They'll be in the hundreds at the end of the year for row crop tractors on the new side.

顯然，其淨效應是下半年產量下降，同時在整個購電協議中保持良好的利潤率，但使我們在應對未來零售需求方面處於最佳位置。所以我們正在減少這些庫存。今年底，新方面的中耕作物拖拉機將達到數百台。

Yes. And maybe one thing -- just lastly to add, this is Josh Jepsen. I think compared to historical, we are ensuring that we're getting inventories in the right place, being as proactive as possible and not prolonging demand, not stretching out the potential to have higher demand a little bit longer, which is a lesson learned clearly from the past. So being able to do that more proactively, we think puts us in a better position. It also impacts I think duration of what we see from an overall cyclical impact.

是的。也許還有一件事——最後補充一下，這是喬許傑普森。我認為與歷史相比，我們正在確保我們在正確的地方獲得庫存，盡可能積極主動，不延長需求，不延長需求更高的潛力，這是一個明確的教訓從過去。因此，我們認為能夠更主動地做到這一點將使我們處於更好的位置。我認為它也會影響我們從整體週期性影響中看到的持續時間。

Yes. Maybe a final point on that to support Josh is that actually in the month of April, we saw the industry actually peak in row crop tractors, and we're proactively pulling back at the peak before the decline comes. So I think that's another indicator.

是的。也許支持喬許的最後一點是，實際上在 4 月份，我們看到該行業的中耕作物拖拉機實際上達到了頂峰，並且我們在下降到來之前主動在頂峰迴撤。所以我認為這是另一個指標。

You had asked about small ag as well. I mean, just maybe a couple points there. I don't have it for the whole segment, but if you kind of break down some of those subcomponents. Small tractors, has been high inventory, particularly in compact utility tractors. Pretty significant under production there. It's double digits.

您也問過小型農業公司的問題。我的意思是，也許只有幾點。我沒有完整的部分，但如果你分解其中一些子組件。小型拖拉機的庫存量一直很高，特別是緊湊型多用途拖拉機。那裡的生產相當重要。是兩位數。

On sort of the mid tractor space, they're kind of in line with our comments around tractors, it's kind of a high single digit on the midsize.

在中型拖拉機空間中，它們與我們對拖拉機的評論一致，在中型拖拉機上是一個較高的個位數。

Our next question comes from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自克里斯汀歐文和奧本海默。

Mine will be somewhat of a follow-up to the last, which is given the high level of underproduction in the back half of the year, and as mix implications being more toward this high-value large form factors, I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit more about those offsets, what you've done already to help protect that decremental margin? Arguably, that should be actually significantly higher given the mix. So what actions you've taken already? And how to think about the cost benefits layering into the back half of the year that's offsetting that under production.

我的將在某種程度上是上一個的後續，考慮到今年下半年的產量嚴重不足，並且由於混合影響更傾向於這種高價值的大型外形因素，我想知道您是否可以多談談這些抵消，您已經採取了哪些措施來幫助保護遞減的利潤？可以說，考慮到這種組合，這個數字實際上應該要高得多。那麼您已經採取了哪些行動？以及如何考慮下半年的成本效益會抵銷生產中的成本效益。

Thanks Kristen. I'll start, and jump in as well here. I think a few things. I mean, certainly, I think as you think about 2024 and particularly underproduction, primarily shifted towards the back half of the year, we have had some adjustments in rates and things. And we've talked about that in terms of some of the overhead and efficiencies that have come into the business as we made those changes. You're seeing that in production cost.

謝謝克里斯汀。我將開始，並在這裡跳入。我想有幾件事。我的意思是，當然，我認為當你想到 2024 年，特別是生產不足，主要轉向今年下半年時，我們在費率和其他方面進行了一些調整。我們已經討論了在做出這些改變時業務中產生的一些管理費用和效率。您可以在生產成本中看到這一點。

That's a headwind there that's offsetting the tailwinds that we see in material and freight, excuse me. So that is having an impact on some of the changes. And certainly, that underproduction plays a part in terms of what we're seeing there as far as decrementals.

對不起，這是一個逆風，抵消了我們在材料和貨運方面看到的順風。這對一些變化產生了影響。當然，就我們所看到的減量而言，生產不足也起到了一定作用。

We're definitely taking cost steps. Our focus on taking material and freight out of the business continues, and we expect that to build in the back half. That is helping offset some of the decrementals as we pull down production in the latter part of the year.

我們肯定會採取成本措施。我們繼續專注於將材料和貨運從業務中剔除，我們預計這一點將在下半年得到加強。這有助於抵消今年下半年產量下降帶來的部分減量。

Kristen, it's Jepsen. I would say definitely, we see the bigger impact in 4Q as seasonally -- you see a higher level of retail, but then also we get seasonal shutdowns and those sorts of things. As we work through the back half of the year, we're resetting production rates, as Josh mentioned. We're also getting the cost structure aligned. So that will benefit us as we go forward.

克莉絲汀，我是傑普森。我肯定地說，我們看到第四季度季節性影響更大——你會看到零售水平更高，但我們也會遇到季節性停工之類的情況。正如喬希所提到的，在今年下半年的工作中，我們正在重置生產力。我們也調整了成本結構。因此，這將使我們受益匪淺。

So the way we're exiting '24, I would say, is not indicative of what we would expect '25 to look like as we step into that year regardless of where we see the end marks moving.

因此，我想說，我們退出 24 年的方式並不代表我們在進入 25 年時所期望的樣子，無論我們看到終點標記在哪裡移動。

One thing I would add, I mean, one of the additional points I'd make is we're actually preparing for probably the largest new product launch going into 2025, we ever have. So while we're pulling production down, we're also readying to launch some of the highest, most productive products we've ever had. So all new combines, all new four-wheel drive tractors, all of that is taking place and included in what we're doing to prepare in terms of the cost structure as we head into '25 and bring value proposition even higher for our customers going forward.

我要補充的一件事是，我要提出的額外觀點之一是，我們實際上正在為 2025 年可能是我們有史以來最大規模的新產品發布做準備。因此，在我們降低產量的同時，我們也準備推出一些我們曾經擁有過的最高、生產力最高的產品。因此，所有新的聯合收割機、所有新的四輪驅動拖拉機，所有這些都正在發生，並包含在我們正在做的準備工作中，以便我們進入25 世紀並為我們的客戶帶來更高的價值主張向前走。

Yes. And I think just building on that too Cory, excitingly, a lot of those new products are coming with great tech, harvest setting automation, predictive ground speed automation, exact shaft for vision. There's a lot of great solutions coming in '25 as well.

是的。我認為科里也以此為基礎，令人興奮的是，許多新產品都配備了出色的技術、收穫設定自動化、預測地面速度自動化、精確的視覺軸。 25 年也出現了許多出色的解決方案。

Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Maybe just if you were willing to comment a bit on what you're seeing so far with the crop care Early Order Program, and I think that question may be quick. So I'm going to ask another -- little question, I guess. And that's the C&F decrementals were a bit high this quarter. Are you expecting that? It seems like in the guidance. Thoughts on decremental margins you see in the back half?

也許只是如果您願意對迄今為止在作物護理早期訂單計劃中所看到的情況發表一些評論，我認為這個問題可能會很快。所以我要問另一個——我想是個小問題。也就是說，本季的 C&F 減量有點高。你期待嗎？好像是在指導裡。您對後半部看到的邊際遞減有何想法？

You're right that the answer is quick on crop care Early Order Programs. So that sprayer Early Order Programs just opened up at the beginning of the month. So we're about, what, 1.5 weeks, 2 weeks in now to that. It's early, and that tends to build throughout the course of the program. So really not enough to comment at this point just based on the very early stages of that program.

您是對的，作物護理早期訂單計劃的答案很快。因此，該噴霧機的早期訂購計劃於本月初剛剛開放。所以我們大約需要 1.5 週、2 週的時間。現在還為時過早，而且這種情況往往會在整個計劃過程中逐漸形成。因此，僅根據該計劃的早期階段，目前還不足以發表評論。

Nicole, this is Jepsen also on EOP. I think one thing important to note we've seen, as we get into times of uncertainty, order activity tends to probably push a little bit later through the phases of those programs as customers dealers exercise a little more optionality and want to have a little bit firmer view of how this planting season go and how is crop emerging, just another point of reference there.

妮可，我是 EOP 上的傑普森。我認為值得注意的一件事是，我們已經看到，當我們進入不確定時期時，訂單活動往往可能會推遲一些計劃的各個階段，因為客戶經銷商會行使更多的選擇權並希望有一點對這個種植季節的進展以及農作物的出苗情況有更堅定的看法，這只是另一個參考點。

Yes. I think maybe shifting, Nicole, to your question on C&F decrementals for the quarter. I think the 1 thing to point out there is we did have lower price realization than originally anticipated. That was due to a discount accrual that we put on some field inventory that will affect really sales for the balance of the year. So it's a little bit of a timing around price realization. That's why you see us keeping that full year guide at 1.5.

是的。 Nicole，我想也許可以轉向你關於本季 C&F 減量的問題。我認為需要指出的一件事是，我們的價格實現確實比最初預期的要低。這是由於我們增加了一些現場庫存的應計折扣，這將影響今年剩餘時間的實際銷售。因此，現在是價格實現的時機。這就是為什麼我們將全年指引保持在 1.5。

We don't expect that to continue. It's just really a timing of making that change in back half should support that full year price about 1.5.

我們預計這種情況不會持續下去。現在確實是在後半段做出改變的時機，應該會支持全年價格約 1.5。

Our next question comes from Jairam Nathan with Daiwa.

我們的下一個問題來自 Daiwa 的 Jairam Nathan。

I just wanted to -- if you could dig a little bit deeper on pricing. What are you seeing in that run across regions and segments. And just kind of also a primer on what we could be seeing next year on the pricing side?

我只是想——如果你能更深入地了解定價的話。您在跨地區和細分市場的運作中看到了什麼？這也是我們明年在定價方面可能看到的情況的入門書？

Yes. I mean a bit early to talk about 2025 pricing. But I think as we talk 2024 and where it stands, and then we kind of do a walk around the world here, again, in large ag, we're talking about 1.5 points price realization for the year, as we kind of step through the different regions.

是的。我的意思是談論 2025 年定價還為時過早。但我認為，當我們談論 2024 年及其現狀時，然後我們在這裡環遊世界，在大型農業中，我們談論的是今年 1.5 個點的價格實現，因為我們有點跨越不同的地區。

North America, we would say normal price realization is in the range of 2% to 3%. We're actually in that range. In fact, on the top end of that, if not a little bit better there. So we've seen strong pricing and expect that to continue through the course of the year.

北美，我們認為正常的價格實現在 2% 到 3% 的範圍內。我們實際上就在這個範圍內。事實上，在最高端，如果不是更好一點的話。因此，我們看到了強勁的定價，並預計這種情況將持續到今年。

South America, we've talked Brazil specifically with the inventory that we built in 2023. We will have some negative price there this year kind of in the mid-single digits. Candidly, as that sort of plays out through the course of the year, was higher on the front end, it starts to mitigate on the back end.

南美，我們特別討論了巴西在 2023 年建立的庫存。坦白說，隨著這一年的發展，前端的情況較高，後端的情況開始減弱。

And then Europe, very, very similar to North America. We're seeing pricing in kind of that normalized range of 2% to 3%. And we expect that really to continue through the course of the year.

然後是歐洲，與北美非常非常相似。我們看到定價在 2% 到 3% 的正常範圍內。我們預計這種情況將持續到今年。

Small Ag and Turf, very similar comments. I think in Construction and Forestry, again, we've seen certainly a more competitive environment there. We talked about the discounts that we accrued this year. But again, we're managing that balance and that dynamic and then feel good about the 1.5% price realization that we're going to maintain through the course of the year.

Small Ag 和 Turf，評論非常相似。我認為在建築和林業領域，我們確實看到了更具競爭性的環境。我們討論了今年我們獲得的折扣。但同樣，我們正在管理這種平衡和動態，然後對我們將在今年維持的 1.5% 的價格實現感到滿意。

Our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer with Melius.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rob Wertheimer 和 Melius。

My question is kind of a big picture one on [PP&A] in North America. And just how you think about the trade down cycle? Your machines have gotten bigger, more capable, more productive, more expensive in some ways. And I'm curious if you see this as an unknown whether they all find homes in the second and third owners or whether you guys know the market better than anybody in the chain of buyers? Or whether you see enough of the moderate-sized farms, the second buyers, to kind of absorb the equipment? Just how you think about that playing into the overall cycle?

我的問題是有關北美 [PP&A] 的總體情況。您如何看待貿易下行週期？您的機器變得更大、能力更強、生產率更高，在某些方面也更昂貴。我很好奇你是否認為這是一個未知數，他們是否都在第二個和第三個業主那裡找到了房子，或者你們是否比買家鏈中的任何人都更了解市場？或者您看到足夠多的中型農場（第二買家）來吸收設備？您如何看待這對整個週期的影響？

Yes, Rob, this is Cory. I'll maybe take a first stab. Look, I'll use tractors as an example. One thing we watch very closely is used inventory on row crop tractors. We've seen late model used above 300-horsepower grow, and we've watched it closely. But if I can give you the example, if you went back to the previous peak, 14,000 unit industry back in 2014, there have been about 14,000 units but only 30% of that industry would have been above 300 horsepower.

是的，羅布，這是科里。我也許會先試試看。看，我將以拖拉機為例。我們密切關注的一件事是中耕作物拖拉機的二手庫存。我們已經看到使用超過 300 馬力的最新型號的增長，並且我們密切關注它。但我可以給你舉個例子，如果你回到之前的峰值，也就是2014年14,000台的行業，大約有14,000台，但只有30%的行業超過300馬力。

If you fast forward today, to 2024, we're about 13,000 units above 220, and 70% of that is above 300, and that's being driven off of the structural improvement that our customers are making for how they plant predominantly. So you think about the adoption of ExactEmerge, we're seeing ExactEmerge continue to drive forward. We're in the mid-80s headed toward 90-plus percent electric drives on planters, high speed. That drives power requirements, the absorption of that at the top end of the market. We see those tractors being required throughout the market as all customers take on the ability to plant better.

如果快進到今天，到 2024 年，我們的產量將超過 220 台，其中 70% 超過 300 台，這是由我們的客戶對其主要種植方式進行的結構改進推動的。所以你想想 ExactEmerge 的採用，我們看到 ExactEmerge 繼續向前邁進。我們在 80 年代中期正朝著 90% 以上的播種機採用高速電力驅動的方向發展。這推動了電力需求，即高端市場對電力的吸收。我們看到整個市場都需要這些拖拉機，因為所有客戶都具備更好種植的能力。

Take this year, we got less than 50% of the crop already planted. There's no better time if you think about timeliness, then to be able to plant fast in an environment where you have a shortened window. So I think we're set really well. Obviously, the timing of year-over-year trade cycles, interest rates has people pause in an environment like we're in. But if you look at the age of the fleet and you look at where we're headed, we feel really confident that our solutions are set up to move through the market.

以今年為例，我們的農作物播種進度還不到 50%。如果您考慮及時性，那麼沒有比在窗口期縮短的環境中快速種植更好的時機了。所以我認為我們已經準備好了。顯然，逐年貿易週期的時機、利率讓人們在我們所處的環境中停下來。上推廣。

Combine that with performance upgrades and precision upgrades together with what we're doing with precision ag essentials, and we'll be able to take most of the value we're creating out through the fleet into each of those customers. So we feel pretty good about that.

將其與性能升級和精度升級以及我們在精密農業必需品方面所做的事情結合起來，我們將能夠將我們透過機隊創造的大部分價值帶給每個客戶。所以我們對此感覺很好。

Yes, Rob. The one thing I would add is I think the other -- the piece that gives us confidence as well is no matter where the customer is in that ladder, whether they're the first owner or the fifth, there's a strong desire to keep upgrading technology, become more productive, more efficient and be able to execute those jobs in tighter time frames.

是的，羅布。我要補充的一件事是，我認為另一件事——也給我們信心的一點是，無論客戶處於階梯的哪個位置，無論他們是第一個所有者還是第五個所有者，都有強烈的願望繼續升級技術，變得更有生產力、更有效率，並能夠在更緊迫的時間內執行這些工作。

As Cory mentioned, planting is a -- very tight time frame. So that demand across I think continues to drive, and we're seeing this precision ag essentials is a really good example where we're connecting machines. I think 2/3 or more of the machines that we've been putting those on have not had technology before. So we're bringing customers that haven't been using things like guidance or other tools into the fold and into the system. So I think that is important.

正如科里所提到的，種植的時間非常緊迫。因此，我認為這種需求持續增長，我們看到這種精密農業必需品是我們連接機器的一個很好的例子。我認為我們安裝的機器中有 2/3 或更多以前沒有技術。因此，我們正在將尚未使用指南或其他工具等工具的客戶納入我們的系統中。所以我認為這很重要。

And the other part is dealers work really hard. They know their customers really well. They know their AORs well. And they're working around how do they best spec those machines and how they best get them into the right hands.

另一方面是經銷商工作非常努力。他們非常了解他們的客戶。他們非常了解自己的職責。他們正在研究如何最好地規範這些機器以及如何最好地將它們交到合適的人手中。

Our last question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

Yes, I apologize for the sound issue earlier. I wanted to ask, you folks are hyper focused on used inventories just normally. Based on the actions that you've taken, rising use of full fund roughly $2 billion destock, what's your level of confidence that late model inventories will stop moving up from here? I appreciate that it's more of an (inaudible), but I'd love to hear how you're modeling and thinking about it versus additional potential levers?

是的，我對之前的聲音問題表示歉意。我想問一下，你們通常都非常關註二手庫存。根據您所採取的行動，即使用全額資金約 20 億美元去庫存，您對後期型號庫存將從此停止上升的信心有多大？我很欣賞它更多的是（聽不清楚），但我很想聽聽您如何建模和思考它與其他潛在槓桿的比較？

Thanks for the question, Jerry. Glad you made it back. I mean I'll start and Cory, Josh, feel free to jump in. I mean, I think it starts with our proactive management on the new inventory side as well. I think our decision to underproduce (inaudible) row-crop tractors in North America in 2024. And to bring those inventory sales levels down as low as we're bringing them. We're significantly below where we ended last year, is really that opportunity, as Cory talked. We feel pull for the equipment. There's value there given where current environment is, given where rates are, it has slowed down, that equipment moving through the pipeline.

謝謝你的提問，傑瑞。很高興你回來了。我的意思是，我會開始，科里、喬什，請隨意加入。我認為我們決定到 2024 年在北美生產（聽不清楚）中耕作物拖拉機。正如科里所說，我們的業績明顯低於去年的業績，這確實是一個機會。我們對設備感到有吸引力。考慮到當前的環境，考慮到設備在管道中移動的速度已經放緩，這是有價值的。

And we don't want to build on that. We don't want to exacerbate that situation. And so we feel like it's prudent to bring the new inventory down. So a lot of that focus and a lot of that time to work the use through. But again, we -- as we just talked, there's definitely a pull for the value that it brings. And we certainly see it even this year, the planting in the U.S. with the delayed spraying, with the wetness. I mean the -- be able to get in quickly with high-speed planting is as important as ever, and that pull for the higher more productive equipment is definitely there. I don't know, Cory, if there's anything you'd add?

我們不想以此為基礎。我們不想加劇這種情況。因此，我們認為降低新庫存是謹慎的做法。因此需要投入大量的精力和時間來完成使用。但同樣，正如我們剛才所說，它所帶來的價值肯定會被拉動。即使是今年，我們也確實看到了這種情況，美國的播種延遲了噴灑，而且濕度很大。我的意思是——能夠快速進行高速種植與以往一樣重要，而且對更高、更高生產力的設備的吸引力肯定是存在的。我不知道，科里，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I used the planting example earlier, but I think it also applies in spring, and it applies in harvesting in the end. Those windows get tighter and the ability to both cover more ground more quickly at all levels and all customers, I think, helps us drive confidence together with the fleet age, drives confidence that we will consume that product. And we've got tools in place to be able to do it.

我之前用了種植的例子，但我認為它也適用於春天，它也適用於最後的收穫。我認為，這些窗口變得更加緊密，並且能夠在各個級別和所有客戶上更快地覆蓋更多領域，有助於我們隨著機隊年齡的增長而增強信心，增強我們將消費該產品的信心。我們已經準備好了能夠做到這一點的工具。

Obviously, it slows down when markets are uncertain and crops aren't in the ground. But if you look at the fleet age and you look at the technologies that are coming and you look at how customers are adopting those technologies trend-wise over time, we look at profitability coming down, but it's still solidly profitable in the business. We know that it pays to adopt these technologies, and we expect those used units to move into the market.

顯然，當市場不確定且農作物沒有長成時，其速度就會放緩。但是，如果你看看機隊時代，看看即將到來的技術，看看客戶如何隨著時間的推移以趨勢方式採用這些技術，我們會看到盈利能力下降，但它在業務中仍然是穩定盈利的。我們知道採用這些技術是值得的，我們預計這些二手設備將進入市場。

Thanks for the question, Jerry. Appreciate all the questions today. I think we're at the end of the list here. That's all the time we have. We appreciate everyone's time. Thanks for joining us. We'll talk soon. Have a great day.

謝謝你的提問，傑瑞。感謝今天提出的所有問題。我認為我們處於列表的末尾。這就是我們所有的時間。我們感謝每個人的時間。感謝您加入我們。我們很快就會談。祝你有美好的一天。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連線。