強鹿 (DE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

And posted on at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings and Events.

並發佈在 johndeere.com/earnings 的「季度收益和事件」下。

I will now turn the call over to Joshua later.

我稍後會將電話轉給約書亞。

Good morning and in early Happy Holidays to everyone joining us today.

早上好，祝今天加入我們的每個人節日快樂。

John Deere finished the year with a better than expected fourth quarter and included 13.1% margins for equipment operations.

約翰迪爾第四季的業績好於預期，設備營運利潤率為 13.1%。

Full-year operating margins came in at 18.2%, reflecting solid proactive execution throughout our organization amidst a challenging and rapidly changing market environment.

全年營業利益率為 18.2%，反映出我們整個組織在充滿挑戰和快速變化的市場環境中積極主動的執行力。

Our ability to generate just over 6.9 billion and operating cash flow from equivalent operations at shipment volumes below mid-cycle levels is indicative of the structural improvements we've made, enabling continued reinvestment in the business and significant cash return to shareholders.

我們能夠以低於週期中期水平的出貨量從同等業務中產生超過69 億美元的營運現金流，這表明我們已經做出了結構性改進，從而能夠繼續對業務進行再投資，並為股東帶來可觀的現金回報。

Looking ahead to 2025, we expect continued contraction of ag markets globally to result in ag and turf equipment demand at or below trough levels.

展望 2025 年，我們預期全球農業市場持續萎縮將導致農業和草坪設備需求處於或低於谷底水準。

Additionally, construction and forestry market demand is expected to be down as healthy end markets are offset by continued uncertainty in equipment purchases.

此外，由於終端市場的健康狀況被設備採購的持續不確定性所抵消，建築和林業市場的需求預計將下降。

Slide 3 begins with the results for fiscal year 2024, net sales and revenues were down 16% to 51.7 billion, while net sales for equipment operations were down 19% to 44.8 billion.

投影片 3 從 2024 財年的業績開始，淨銷售額和收入下降 16%，至 517 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額下降 19%，至 448 億美元。

Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $7.1 billion or $25.62 per diluted share.

迪爾公司應佔淨利為 71 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 25.62 美元。

Next fourth quarter results are on Slide 4.

接下來的第四季業績在投影片 4 上。

Net sales and revenues were down 28% to $11.1 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were down 33% to $9.3 billion.

淨銷售額和收入下降 28%，至 111 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額下降 33%，至 93 億美元。

Net income attributable to Deere & Company decreased to 1.2 billion or $4.55 per diluted share.

迪爾公司應佔淨利潤下降至 12 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 4.55 美元。

Diving into our individual business segments on slide 5, we'll review our fourth quarter results, starting with our production and precision ag business.

在投影片 5 中深入探討我們的各個業務部門，我們將回顧我們第四季度的業績，從我們的生產和精密農業業務開始。

Net sales of $4.305 billion were down 38% compared to the fourth quarter last year, primarily due to lower shipment volumes.

淨銷售額為 43.05 億美元，較去年第四季下降 38%，主要是因為出貨量下降。

Price realization in the quarter was flat in line with expectations.

本季的價格實現與預期持平。

Currency translation was negative by about one point.

貨幣換算為負值約一個百分點。

Operating profit was $657 million, resulting in a 15.3% operating margin for the segment.

營業利益為 6.57 億美元，該部門的營業利潤率為 15.3%。

The year-over-year decrease in operating profit was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and sales mix, which was partially offset by lower production costs.

營業利潤年減主要是由於出貨量和銷售組合下降，但生產成本下降部分抵消了這種影響。

As a reminder, we anticipated tough per year over year comps for PPA in the fourth quarter due to extended factory shutdown days associated with planned underproduction at several facilities.

提醒一下，我們預計第四季度購電協議的年比業績將比較艱難，因為工廠停產時間延長，且多個工廠計劃生產不足。

Turning to small Ag & Turf on slide 6.

轉向幻燈片 6 上的小型 Ag & Turf。

Net sales were down 25% totaling $2.306 billion in the fourth quarter, primarily due to lower shipment volumes.

第四季淨銷售額下降 25%，總計 23.06 億美元，主要是因為出貨量下降。

Although this was partially offset by price real in the quarter was positive.

儘管這部分被本季的實際價格所抵消。

Currency was also positive by approximately 0.5 points for the quarter.

本季貨幣匯率也上漲了約 0.5 點。

Operating profit declined year over year to $234 million, resulting in a 10.1% operating margin decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and mix, along with special non-recurring items.

營業利潤年減至 2.34 億美元，導致營業利潤率下降 10.1%，這主要是由於出貨量和組合下降以及特殊非經常性項目所致。

These items were partially offset by price realization and lower warranty expenses.

這些項目被價格實現和較低的保固費用部分抵消。

Slide 7 details our fiscal year 2025 Ag & Turf industry outlooks.

幻燈片 7 詳細介紹了我們對 2025 財年農業和草坪行業的展望。

We expect industry sales of large ag equipment in the US and Canada to decline approximately 30% as demand further moderate amid weak farm fundamentals, high interest rates, elevated used inventory levels and short term pharma liquidity.

我們預計美國和加拿大大型農業設備的行業銷售額將下降約 30%，因為農業基本面疲軟、利率高、二手庫存水準上升和短期製藥流動性導致需求進一步放緩。

Liquidity concerns heading into next year's growing season for small ag and turf in the US and Canada, industry demand is estimated to be down around 10%.

美國和加拿大的小型農業和草坪明年的生長季即將到來，流動性令人擔憂，產業需求預計將下降 10% 左右。

The dairy and livestock segment continues.

乳製品和畜牧業持續發展。

Another year of strong profitability has elevated protein and high prices are further enhanced by low input feed costs.

又一年強勁的獲利能力提高了蛋白質含量，而較低的飼料投入成本進一步推高了價格。

This is offset by restrained demand in the curve and compact utility tractor market.

這被曲線和緊湊型多用途拖拉機市場的需求抑制所抵消。

A single-family home sales and home improvement spending remained stagnant amid high interest rates.

在高利率的背景下，單戶住宅銷售和家居裝修支出仍然停滯不前。

In Europe, the industry is projected to be down between 5% and 10%.

在歐洲，該產業預計將下降 5% 至 10%。

Farm fundamentals in the region continued to deteriorate.

該地區的農業基本面持續惡化。

Lingering headwinds include depressed yields from unfavorable weather, reduced regional commodity prices and persistently elevated input costs.

揮之不去的阻力包括不利天氣造成的產量下降、地區大宗商品價格下跌、投入成本持續升高。

Confluence of these issues, coupled with high interest rates, are expected to keep industry equipment demand at low levels throughout 2025.

這些問題的綜合作用，再加上高利率，預計 2025 年工業設備需求將維持在較低水準。

Within South America, we anticipate industry sales of tractors and combines to be roughly flat as headwinds from 2020 for stabilized but persist.

在南美洲，我們預計拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷售將大致持平，因為自 2020 年以來的不利因素將穩定但持續。

Looking forward to 2025 for crop prices are expected to decline.

展望 2025 年，農作物價格預計將下降。

Input costs are also decreasing with yields improving as the drought concerns abate, coupled with continued soybean acreage expansion.

隨著乾旱問題的緩解以及大豆種植面積的持續擴大，產量提高，投入成本也在下降。

Overall sentiment has improved, although this has yet to translate into additional equipment demand.

整體情緒有所改善，儘管這尚未轉化為額外的設備需求。

Additionally, recent appreciation of the US dollar against the Brazilian reais offers further profitability tailwinds to farmers as commodity prices are typically quoted in dollars.

此外，近期美元兌巴西雷亞爾的升值為農民的獲利能力提供了進一步的推動力，因為大宗商品價格通常以美元報價。

While many input costs are denominated in reais across the rest of South America, strong yields are offset rates.

儘管南美其他地區的許多投入成本都以雷亞爾計價，但強勁的收益率抵消了利率。

Argentina, however, is experiencing some favorable tailwinds as government actions begin to stabilize the currency, a modest recovery in the ag industry.

然而，隨著政府採取行動開始穩定貨幣，農業產業出現溫和復甦，阿根廷正經歷一些有利的順風車。

Finally, industry sales in Asia are projected to be down slightly as foundational technology adoption and improving ag fundamentals in India provide moderate demand tailwinds.

最後，由於基礎技術的採用和印度農業基本面的改善提供了溫和的需求推動力，亞洲的工業銷售預計將略有下降。

Moving to our segment forecast on Slide 8.

前往投影片 8 上的細分市場預測。

We anticipate production and precision ag net sales to be down approximately 15% in fiscal year 2025 forecast assumes roughly one point of positive price realization and a half a point of negative currency translation.

我們預期 2025 財年的產量和精密農業淨銷售額將下降約 15%（假設價格實現為正值約 1 個百分點，貨幣換算為負值約 0.5 個百分點）。

Segment.

部分。

Operating margin forecast for the full fiscal year is between 17% and 18%, reflecting strong execution amid tough some geographic and product mix headwinds.

整個財年的營業利潤率預計在 17% 至 18% 之間，反映出在一些地理和產品組合困難的情況下執行力強勁。

Slide 9 provides our forecast for the small ag and turf segments.

幻燈片 9 提供了我們對小型農業和草坪細分市場的預測。

We expect fiscal year 25 net sales to be down around 10%.

我們預計 25 財年淨銷售額將下降 10% 左右。

This includes about 0.5 points of positive price realization as well as half a point of positive currency translation.

這包括大約 0.5 個點的正價格實現以及半個點的正貨幣換算。

The segment's operating margin is projected to be between 13% and 14%.

該部門的營業利潤率預計在 13% 至 14% 之間。

Shifting now to Construction & Forestry on slide 10.

現在轉到幻燈片 10 上的建築和林業。

Net sales for the quarter were down 29% year over year to 2.664 billion due to lower shipment volumes for price realization and currency translation were slightly positive in the quarter by less than half a point, operating profit decreased to $328 million, resulting in a 12.3% operating margin.

本季淨銷售額年減29%，至26.64 億美元，原因是實現價格的出貨量下降，且本季貨幣換算小幅正值不到半個百分點，營業利潤下降至3.28 億美元，營業利潤下降12.3%。

Lower shipment volumes and sales mix were partially offset by lower production costs and proceeds from special nonrecurring items.

較低的出貨量和銷售組合被較低的生產成本和特殊非經常性項目收益所部分抵銷。

Slide 11 outlines our 2025 construction and forestry industry outlook.

幻燈片 11 概述了我們 2025 年建築和林業行業的展望。

Industry.

行業。

Sales for earthmoving equipment in the US and Canada are expected to be down around 10%, while compact construction equipment in the US and Canada is expected to be down 5%.

美國和加拿大的土方設備銷售額預計將下降 10% 左右，而美國和加拿大的緊湊型建築設備銷售額預計將下降 5%。

Fixed end markets in 2025 are expected to temper equipment demand across both construction and compact construction equipment, modest growth in single-family housing starts and U.S. government infrastructure spending and multifamily housing developments still softening non-residential building investments and muted CapEx spending in oil and gas, additional headwinds from historically low levels of earthmoving rental re-fleeting and somewhat elevated used inventories, we'll further pressure equipment sales has market uncertainty persists into the start of fiscal 2025.

預計2025 年固定終端市場將抑制建築和緊湊型建築設備的設備需求，單戶住宅開工和美國政府基礎設施支出和多戶住房開發的溫和增長仍然會削弱非住宅建築投資，石油和天然氣領域的資本支出也將減弱。

Global forestry markets are expected to be flat to down 5% as challenged global markets stabilize at low demand levels in 2025.

隨著面臨挑戰的全球市場在 2025 年穩定在低需求水平，全球林業市場預計將持平或下降 5%。

Global road building markets are forecasted to be roughly flat as a modest recovery in Europe, compensation for modest slowdowns in other geographies.

由於歐洲小幅復甦，全球道路建設市場預計將大致持平，彌補其他地區小幅放緩的影響。

Continuing with our CnF segment outlook on slide 12, 2025 net sales are forecasted to be down around 10% to 15%.

繼續我們在投影片 12 上對 CnF 細分市場的展望，預計 2025 年淨銷售額將下降約 10% 至 15%。

Our net sales guidance for the year includes about one point of positive price realization and flat currency translation.

我們今年的淨銷售指引包括大約一個點的正價格實現和固定的貨幣換算。

The segment's operating margin is projected to be between 11.5% and 12.5%.

該部門的營業利潤率預計在 11.5% 至 12.5% 之間。

Switching to our Financial Services operations on slide 13, field-wide Financial Services net income attributable to Deere & Company was $173 million for the fourth quarter.

轉向投影片 13 上的金融服務業務，第四季歸屬於迪爾公司的全領域金融服務淨利為 1.73 億美元。

Year over year decline was mainly due to a higher provision for credit losses, partially offset by income earned on a higher average portfolio balance, the reduction in derivative valuation adjustments and lower SA&G expenses results were also negatively impacted by the increased valuation allowance on for fiscal year 2025.

年比下降主要是由於信貸損失準備金增加，部分被平均投資組合餘額增加所賺取的收入所抵消，衍生品估值調整的減少以及SA&G費用的降低也受到財政估值備抵增加的負面影響。 2025 年。

The net income forecast to $750 million results are expected to be higher year over year, primarily due to a lower provision for credit losses, partially offset by less favorable financing spreads.

淨利潤預計為 7.5 億美元，預計將同比增長，這主要是由於信貸損失準備金減少，但部分被不太有利的融資利差所抵消。

Additionally, 2024 results for us affected by the valuation allowance on assets held for sale Mark or John Deere.

此外，我們 2024 年的業績也受到馬克或約翰迪爾待售資產估價備抵的影響。

Slide 14 concludes with our guidance for net income effective tax rate in operating cash flow for fiscal year 2025.

投影片 14 最後給出了我們對 2025 財年營運現金流量中淨利有效稅率的指引。

Our full year net income forecast is expected to be in the range of five and 5.5 billion, highlighting structural improvements over previous cycles.

我們對全年淨利潤的預測預計在 50 至 55 億美元之間，凸顯了較之前週期的結構性改善。

Next, our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate between 23% and 25%.

接下來，我們的指導方針納入了 23% 至 25% 之間的有效稅率。

Lastly, cash flow from a equipment operations is projected to be in the range of 4.5 to 5.5 billion.

最後，設備營運現金流預計在 450 至 55 億美元之間。

It is important to emphasize that our implied guidance for $19 and earnings per share is at some trough levels with expected sales for fiscal 25 flow, 80% of mid-cycle, underscoring our commitment to operational excellence as we focus on proactive management to drive customer value at all points in the business cycle.

需要強調的是，我們對19 美元的隱含指引和每股盈餘處於某些低谷水平，預計25 財年的銷售額佔週期中期的80%，這突顯了我們對卓越營運的承諾，因為我們專注於主動管理以推動客戶發展商業週期中所有點的價值。

This concludes our formal remarks.

我們的正式發言到此結束。

I will now cover a few key topics before opening the line to Q&A.

在開始問答之前，我現在將介紹幾個關鍵主題。

But before we get into this detail, John, would you like to share your thoughts on the year?

但在我們討論這個細節之前，約翰，您想分享一下您對這一年的想法嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬許。

2024 was characterized by our resiliency in the face of significant challenges.

2024 年的特點是我們面對重大挑戰時所表現出的韌性。

The pullback we experienced in global markets this year provided our organization with an opportunity to showcase the structural improvements we've made since announcing in the smart industrial operating model in 2020.

今年我們在全球市場經歷的回調為我們的組織提供了展示自 2020 年宣布智慧工業營運模式以來我們所取得的結構性改進的機會。

Starting with our financial scorecard, we continued to demonstrate better performance across the cycle.

從我們的財務記分卡開始，我們在整個週期中繼續展現出更好的表現。

Notably, our margins in 2024 exceeded 18%, reflecting nearly 700 bps improvement from 2020, which was the last time we were at this point in the cycle.

值得注意的是，我們 2024 年的利潤率超過了 18%，比 2020 年提高了近 700 個基點，這是我們最後一次處於週期的這一點。

This margin expansion has enabled us to invest at record levels back into the business this year.

這種利潤率的擴張使我們今年能夠以創紀錄的水平重新投資於該業務。

More important than the numbers.

比數字更重要。

I couldn't be prouder of the resilience demonstrated by our John Deere employee team this year, the velocity at which markets slowed, tested our discipline in our agility.

我對約翰迪爾員工團隊今年表現出的韌性感到無比自豪，市場放緩的速度考驗著我們的敏捷性。

However, in the face of these difficulties, we emerged more focused and however, on our mission to help our customers do more with less.

然而，面對這些困難，我們更專注，我們的使命是幫助客戶事半功倍。

Our dedicated teams across factories, engineering centers, dealerships, branches, offices and in the field showed remarkable Fortitude as we made proactive decisions based on hard learn lessons from the past, we maintain our focus on the cover for ensuring we not only retain, but also actively seek out the best talent with the skills and experience necessary to help us solve the significant challenges facing our customers.

我們在工廠、工程中心、經銷商、分支機構、辦事處和現場的專業團隊在吸取過去的經驗教訓的基礎上做出積極主動的決策時，表現出了非凡的毅力，我們始終把重點放在在封面上，以確保我們不僅保留，而且我們還積極尋找具有必要技能和經驗的最佳人才，以幫助我們解決客戶面臨的重大挑戰。

This year also brought about a range of new and exciting solutions as we furthered our progress on many of our LEAP ambitions, including connected machines, engaged acres and autonomous acres.

隨著我們在許多 LEAP 目標上取得進一步進展，今年也帶來了一系列令人興奮的新解決方案，包括連網機器、參與土地和自治土地。

Our flag ship Cincinnati technologies and spray covered 1 million acres this year alone, reducing herbicide use by an average of nearly 60%.

光是今年，我們的旗艦辛辛那提技術和噴霧就覆蓋了 100 萬英畝，平均減少了近 60% 的除草劑使用量。

This solution in many other similar technologies we've developed have not only because of not only positively impacted our customers operate operations, but the environment as well.

我們開發的許多其他類似技術中的該解決方案不僅對我們客戶的營運產生了積極影響，而且對環境也產生了積極影響。

And we've only begun to scratch the surface.

我們才剛開始觸及表面。

Our employees come to work every day, driven by a higher purpose that extends beyond merely solving a problem or completing a task.

我們的員工每天都受到更高目標的驅動而上班，而不僅僅是解決問題或完成任務。

At the end of the day, we can confidently step back and reflect on the fact that our products are making a meaningful difference for our customers and the world.

最終，我們可以自信地退後一步，反思我們的產品正在為我們的客戶和世界帶來有意義的改變。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

I'd like to continue our discussion about the past year before we dive into 25.

在我們深入討論 25 年前，我想繼續討論過去的一年。

This past fiscal year clearly represented a very dynamic market, characterized by significant demand declines following peak levels in 23.

上一財年顯然代表了一個非常活躍的市場，其特點是需求在 23 年達到高峰後大幅下降。

Nevertheless, as you know to John, we ended the year with over 7 billion in net income.

儘管如此，約翰也知道，我們年底的淨利潤超過 70 億美元。

Bill, can you provide a breakdown of what happened during the quarter and throughout the fiscal year?

比爾，您能否詳細說明本季和整個財年發生的情況？

I'm happy to Josh and his best to start off with the quarter, which came in better than expected.

我很高興喬許和他在本季開始時表現出色，結果比預期的要好。

We targeted field inventory reductions by pulling back production and shipping at our factories across the globe.

我們透過減少全球工廠的生產和運輸來減少現場庫存。

Large ag retail sales of new equipment generally came in line came in as expected across most geographies and product lines, especially in North America.

在大多數地區和產品線中，新設備的大型農業零售額總體上符合預期，尤其是在北美。

As a result, field inventory of new equipment, particularly North American tractors and combines into the year at extremely low levels on both an absolute and inventory to sales basis.

因此，新設備（尤其是北美拖拉機）的現場庫存在絕對數量和庫存與銷售基礎上都處於極低水準。

We manage this underproduction while controlling costs delivering year-over-year improvements in production costs and SANG. and R. and D.

我們在控制生產不足的同時控製成本，實現生產成本和 SANG 的逐年改善。和 R. 和 D.

Additionally, we successfully reduced in-process inventory levels, which drove much of the cash flow outperformance relative to our Q3 guide.

此外，我們成功降低了在製品庫存水平，這在很大程度上推動了現金流量的表現優於我們的第三季指南。

Turning to the full year, John previously highlighted that our performance was marked by resiliency in the face of challenging market conditions, which necessitated tough operational decisions that required significant flexibility and adaptability from everyone, our employees, dealers and suppliers.

談到全年，約翰先前強調，面對充滿挑戰的市場條件，我們的業績表現出彈性，這需要做出艱難的營運決策，需要每個人、我們的員工、經銷商和供應商的高度靈活性和適應性。

As a result, we successfully managed operations to lower levels of demand this year.

因此，我們今年成功地控制了運營，降低了需求水準。

Production costs for the full year came in favorable, primarily due to year-over-year improvements in material and freight costs across all business segments.

全年生產成本有利，主要是由於所有業務部門的材料和運輸成本較去年同期有所改善。

Despite muted sales, we remain disciplined and committed to our investments in the business, maintaining record levels of R&D spending.

儘管銷售疲軟，我們仍保持紀律並致力於業務投資，保持研發支出的創紀錄水準。

We recognize that many of the new product introductions this year stemming from investments that we made throughout the previous cycle, and we will continue to prioritize the value-creating investments moving forward.

我們意識到，今年推出的許多新產品都源自於我們在上一個週期所做的投資，我們將繼續優先考慮未來創造價值的投資。

Overall, the decisive actions we took this year resulted in a solid finish.

整體而言，今年我們採取的果斷行動取得了紮實的成績。

We closed fiscal year 2020 for delivering strong returns while successfully reducing new field inventory levels, ultimately positioning the business to effectively execute the what are expected to be challenging market conditions in 2025.

我們在 2020 財年結束時實現了強勁的回報，同時成功降低了新的現場庫存水平，最終使業務能夠有效應對 2025 年預計將面臨的充滿挑戰的市場條件。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬許。

That's great color on 24.

24號的顏色真好看啊

Let's pivot directions now and discuss our fiscal 2025 outlook for ag and turf.

現在讓我們調整方向並討論 2025 財年農業和草坪業的前景。

With commodity prices down clear, partially offset by bumper crops across the U.S., farmer margins have been compressed.

由於大宗商品價格明顯下跌（部分被美國各地的豐收所抵銷），農民的利潤受到壓縮。

Our guide implies a challenging year for farmers in 2025.

我們的指南暗示 2025 年對農民來說是充滿挑戰的一年。

Josh, could you help us unpack what we're seeing here and why to effect by segment and geography?

喬希，您能幫我們解開我們在這裡看到的內容以及為什麼要按細分市場和地理位置進行影響嗎？

Sure.

當然。

It's definitely going to be another dynamic year across the ag industry.

這肯定會是整個農業產業又一個充滿活力的一年。

Let's start with large ag in North America.

讓我們從北美的大型農業公司開始。

We expect farm fundamentals to remain depressed globally in 2025, putting additional pressure on farm profitability.

我們預計 2025 年全球農場基本面仍將低迷，進而對農場獲利能力造成額外壓力。

Given the strong yields from US harvest this past year, we've seen a rebuilding of global stocks for the USDA forecast and global stocks to reach the fourth highest level on record anticipated record production in South America, particularly in Brazil.

鑑於去年美國收成的強勁單產，我們看到美國農業部預測的全球庫存正在重建，南美洲（尤其是巴西）的全球庫存將達到創紀錄的預期創紀錄產量的第四高水準。

Argentina is likely to further pressure to lower commodity prices in 2025.

阿根廷可能會在 2025 年進一步施壓降低大宗商品價格。

So input costs relatively flat year over year.

因此，投入成本與去年同期相對持平。

Farm net income will remain compressed globally.

全球農場淨收入將持續受到壓縮。

Conversely, dairy and livestock margins remain elevated, supported by significantly lower input feed costs and positive market demand.

相反，在投入飼料成本顯著降低和積極的市場需求的支撐下，乳製品和牲畜利潤率仍然較高。

However, machinery demand for this segment has lagged the margin gains and positive sentiment as interest rates and slow herd expansion continue to be the primary ag sector.

然而，由於利率和緩慢的畜群擴張仍然是主要的農業產業，該領域的機械需求落後於利潤率成長和正面情緒。

It's significant macro headwinds.

這是重大的宏觀阻力。

Farm balance sheet remains strong with land value supporting healthy debt to equity ratios.

農場資產負債表依然強勁，土地價值支持健康的負債股本比率。

That said, as cash receipts have slowed and credit conditions in the industry have tightened, many growers are keeping a greater focus on the liquidity of their operations.

儘管如此，隨著現金收入放緩和行業信貸條件收緊，許多種植者更加關注其業務的流動性。

As we look at the impact on equipment sales in the coming year, that's important to highlight the varying dynamics across each of our primary regions.

當我們審視來年對設備銷售的影響時，重要的是要強調我們每個主要地區的不同動態。

As a reminder, our goal for 2020 for was to under-produce global large ag retail by a high single digits, the North American large ag.

提醒一下，我們 2020 年的目標是讓全球大型農業零售業（即北美大型農業）的產量低於個位數。

We successfully achieved our underproduction goals for the fourth quarter, reaching targeted inventory levels on most of our key products.

我們成功實現了第四季度的生產不足目標，大部分關鍵產品達到了目標庫存水準。

For example, new combined inventory was down mid 10s year over year on a unit basis and finished the year at 4% inventory to sales in line with 2023 year end levels and 200,000 horsepower and above large tractors.

例如，新的綜合庫存以單位計算年減了 10 %左右，年終庫存與銷售比率為 4%，與 2023 年年底水準和 20 萬馬力及以上大型拖拉機一致。

We reduce field inventory by nearly 50% year over year, resulting in a year end inventory to sales ratio of 10% of 500 basis point reduction year over year in the last 10 years, inventory to sales ratios for 200,000 horsepower tractors for Deere.

我們現場庫存年減近50%，年末庫存銷比年減10%，近10年迪爾20萬馬力拖拉機庫存銷比年減500個基點。

I've only been this low twice in April 2014, just prior to the last down cycle and in January 2022 due to post pandemic supply constraints.

2014 年 4 月，我的股價只出現過兩次低點，一次是在上一次下跌週期之前，另一次是在 2022 年 1 月，這是由於疫情後的供應限制。

Given the inventory reductions we've achieved, we expect to produce in line with retail demand in North America in 2025.

鑑於我們已經實現了庫存削減，我們預計 2025 年的產量將符合北美的零售需求。

We're encouraged by the progress we've made on this front, particularly as Enlist industry.

我們對我們在這方面取得的進展感到鼓舞，特別是在入伍行業。

Inventory to sales ratios for new equipment are more than double Deere's ratios for both 100 horsepower tractors and combines Vytorin.

新設備的庫存與銷售比率是迪爾公司 100 馬力拖拉機和聯合收割機 Vytorin 比率的兩倍以上。

Our active inventory management.

我們積極的庫存管理。

Macro factors continue to be a headwind for equipment demand in 2025, resulting in subdued early order program results.

宏觀因素仍然是 2025 年設備需求的阻力，導致早期訂單計畫結果不佳。

As a reminder, during our last earnings call in August, we were partway through the early order programs for sprayers implanters in North America.

提醒一下，在我們八月份的最後一次財報電話會議上，我們正​​在進行北美噴霧機植入機的早期訂單計劃。

And our combine early order program had just begun as an update, our sprayer program concluded down from 2020 for declining in line with our industry guide for North American large ag and setting 2025 production levels.

我們的聯合收割機早期訂單計劃剛開始作為更新，我們的噴霧機計劃從 2020 年開始結束，根據我們針對北美大型農業公司的行業指南進行下降，並設定 2025 年的生產水平。

First sprayers below mid-cycle planters, on the other hand, experienced a more significant decline building with a year over year reduction greater than what we saw in sprayers.

另一方面，中周期播種機以下的第一批噴霧機經歷了更顯著的下降，同比下降幅度比我們在噴霧機中看到的還要大。

Finally combined will complete the second of three early order program phases next week and when this program closes at the end of January, we expect the product line to be down in a range similar to the reduction we've seen and sprayers North American tractors are managed on a rolling quarter basis with row crop tractor order books for through the middle of the second quarter.

最終合併將在下週完成三個早期訂單計劃階段中的第二個階段，當該計劃於一月底結束時，我們預計產品線的下降幅度類似於我們所看到的下降幅度，噴霧機北美拖拉機滾動季度管理，中耕作物拖拉機訂單簿持續到第二季​​中期。

Demand for row-crop tractors in 2025 is expected to be down less than the overall industry forecast for the beer shipments decreasing even less as production levels rebound to align with retail demand following our high single digit underproduction for row-crop tractors in 2024.

預計2025 年中耕作物拖拉機的需求下降幅度將低於產業整體預測，啤酒出貨量的下降幅度甚至更小，因為繼2024 年中耕作物拖拉機產量出現高個位數不足之後，生產水準將反彈，與零售需求保持一致。

Conversely, demand for four-wheel drive tractors in 2025 is expected to decline year over year more than the industry guide.

相反，預計 2025 年四輪驅動拖拉機的需求年減幅度將超過產業指引。

But as a reminder, that product line actually saw increased demand in 2020 for whatever it's worth noting here that our order books for our newest director for high horsepower nine Rx, which we introduced last fall Q3 at commodity classic, are currently fall through the middle of the fourth quarter, underscoring the value that we're bringing to the market and the importance of continued investment in our core product lines.

但提醒一下，該產品線實際上在 2020 年需求有所增加，值得注意的是，我們去年秋天第三季度在商品經典上推出的最新高馬力 9 Rx 總監的訂單目前處於中間位置第四季度的業績，強調了我們為市場帶來的價值以及持續投資核心產品線的重要性。

Josh, this is Corey.

喬什，這是科里。

I like the jump in here to highlight the efforts of our Canadian team and customers.

我喜歡在這裡強調我們加拿大團隊和客戶的努力。

We've seen significant competitive conversions in this market.

我們在這個市場上看到了顯著的競爭性轉變。

Posts are smart industrial redesign, which is focused on supporting the production steps that our customers take over the course of the year in their specific crop types and geographies.

貼文是智慧工業重新設計，其重點是支持我們的客戶在一年中在其特定作物類型和地區採取的生產步驟。

In Canada.

在加拿大。

The majority of broad acre farming occurs in the western half of the country.

大多數大面積農業發生在該國的西半部。

This primary production system is small grains, which is wheat, canola and barley, and the operations tend to be large scale.

此主要生產系統為小穀物，即小麥、油菜和大麥，且營運規模較大。

Many of the new product introductions over the past few years have been tailor-made for solving our Canadian small grains customers' toughest challenges.

過去幾年推出的許多新產品都是為解決加拿大小穀物客戶最嚴峻的挑戰而量身定制的。

In doing so.

在這樣做的過程中。

The system level from x nine combines to high horsepower nine Rx tractors to RC. series AirCards, coupled with our integrated technology solutions and the John Deere Operations Center.

系統等級從 x 9 組合到高馬力 9 Rx 拖拉機到 RC。系列 AirCards，加上我們的整合技術解決方案和約翰迪爾營運中心。

These customers are experiencing significant increases in productivity and profitability and and quality of life.

這些客戶的生產力、獲利能力以及生活品質正在顯著提高。

And finally, when you layer in a dealer network that's come committed to investing in their customers and ensuring they get the most out of their Deere equipment while delivering uptime and reliability result as exceptional system-level value for our Canadian customers.

最後，當您加入經銷商網路時，該網路致力於投資客戶並確保他們充分利用迪爾設備，同時為我們的加拿大客戶提供正常運行時間和可靠性結果，作為卓越的系統級價值。

Thanks for that callout, Corey.

謝謝你的標註，科里。

Clearly a great story with our team up there that should continue into the next year.

顯然，我們團隊的精彩故事應該會持續到明年。

And Josh, thanks for the update on the LPs in the North American market.

Josh，感謝您提供有關北美市場 LP 的最新資訊。

Now, can you walk us through what's happening in South America and even more specifically Brazil?

現在，您能向我們介紹一下南美洲，尤其是巴西正在發生的事情嗎？

Of course, as you recall, Brazil represented our largest targeted underproduction in 2024 as we work to correct excess new field inventory resulting from the market slowdown at the end of 2023.

當然，正如您所記得的那樣，巴西是我們 2024 年最大的目標產量不足的國家，因為我們正在努力糾正 2023 年底市場放緩導致的新油田庫存過剩。

Our factory and marketing teams in the region worked diligently over the last year to adjust production and shipping in the midst of a dynamic retail sales environment.

去年，我們在該地區的工廠和行銷團隊努力工作，在充滿活力的零售環境中調整生產和運輸。

As a result, we've driven significant reductions in new field inventory units and reach targeted levels for most product lines, enabling us to produce in line with retail them demand in 2025 across most equipment categories, given our flat guide for industry retails in 2025 and the significant underproduction to retail in 2020 for producing in line with retail in 2025 will represent a double digit increase in beer shipments year over year in the region.

因此，我們大幅減少了新的現場庫存單位，並達到了大多數產品線的目標水平，使我們能夠根據 2025 年行業零售的統一指南，在 2025 年對大多數設備類別進行符合零售需求的生產2020年零售產量嚴重不足，而2025 年生產量與零售量一致，這意味著該地區啤酒出貨量同比將出現兩位數增長。

The one product where we still have some work to do is combines for inventories remain elevated, following slightly weaker than anticipated retail sales in the fourth quarter.

我們仍有一些工作要做的一個產品是聯合收割機，因為第四季零售額略弱於預期，庫存仍然很高。

As a result, we're planning another year of underproduction for combines in Brazil in 2025, although to a much lesser extent and with the majority of the inventory drawdown occurring in the first half of the year.

因此，我們計劃 2025 年巴西聯合收割機又將出現生產不足的一年，儘管程度要小得多，而且大部分庫存下降發生在上半年。

This is Justin.

這是賈斯汀。

I wanted to take a moment to express how proud we are of our South American team and the exceptional work we've done to efficiently in resource really rightsize inventory levels while maintaining strong operating margins.

我想花點時間表達我們對南美團隊的自豪，以及我們為有效利用資源、真正調整庫存水準、同時保持強勁的營業利潤所做的出色工作。

Our optimism in the regions.

我們對這些地區持樂觀態度。

Prospects remain strong, demonstrated by our continued local investments focused on developing solutions in the region for the region.

我們持續進行本地投資，專注於為該地區開發解決方案，證明了前景仍然強勁。

The great examples, our investment in Brazil in our new R&D center in India to Cuba, which will be opened in December.

最好的例子是我們在巴西投資的印度和古巴新研發中心，該中心將於 12 月開幕。

The center will focus on developing the products are Brazilian customers need to tackle challenges specific to Tropical agriculture has great.

該中心將專注於開發巴西客戶所需的產品，以應對熱帶農業特有的巨大挑戰。

Josh now finish it out with Europe.

喬許現在在歐洲完成了任務。

What are the dynamics over there?

那邊的動態如何？

2024 was a tough year for the region.

2024 年對該地區來說是艱難的一年。

We really saw a perfect storm of factors, depressed commodity prices, lower yields, regional conflicts and frustration with ag policy that ultimately drove a retail sales declined much greater than normal for a market that has traditionally less volatile.

我們確實看到了一場完美的因素風暴，大宗商品價格低迷、收益率下降、地區衝突以及對農業政策的不滿，最終導致零售銷售下降幅度遠大於傳統上波動性較小的市場的正常水平。

The North and South America.

北美洲和南美洲。

We expect as a typical trend to continue in 2025 with another year of declines as uncertainty, interest rates pressure on cash crop receipts and elevated field inventory levels way and equipment demand.

我們預計，這一典型趨勢將在 2025 年持續，由於不確定性、經濟作物收入面臨利率壓力以及田間庫存水準和設備需求上升，又將出現下降一年。

To illustrate this challenge harvest yields in France, the largest grain producers in Western Europe came in this fall at multi-decade lows, placing signal constraint on many growers in that region.

為了說明法國收成面臨的這項挑戰，西歐最大的糧食生產國今年秋季的產量達到了數十年來的低點，給該地區的許多種植者帶來了訊號限制。

Similar to other regions.

與其他地區類似。

We had success in reducing viewed or new field inventory units in Europe in 2020 for driving levels down over 40 over 20% from the start of the year.

2020 年，我們成功減少了歐洲的已查看或新現場庫存單位，使水準較年初下降了 40 多個超過 20%。

However, due to the ongoing and greater than expected declines in retail demand, our field inventory targets have continued to adjust downward in line with the market softening.

然而，由於零售需求持續下降且超出預期，我們的現場庫存目標隨著市場疲軟而持續下調。

We finished 2024 with inventory to sales ratios for both mid-sized tractors and combines at or slightly above the upper end of our targeted bands, which we feel necessitate further underproduction in those product lines in 2025.

到 2024 年，我們的中型拖拉機和聯合收割機的庫存與銷售比率處於或略高於我們目標範圍的上限，我們認為這些產品線到 2025 年有必要進一步減產。

Order books in the region remain healthy with orders for Manheim tractors extending into the second quarter of the year.

該地區的訂單保持健康，曼海姆拖拉機的訂單延續到今年第二季。

one additional point to highlight for the ag outlook broadly is that our implied 2025 decrementals are impacted by product and geographic mix as North American large ag and lot option compared to the rest of the world.

對於農業前景，需要強調的另一點是，我們隱含的 2025 年減量受到產品和地理組合的影響，因為與世界其他地區相比，北美大型農業和批次選擇。

This is particularly noteworthy in the first quarter, given the year-over-year comparison to strong North American large ag sales in the first quarter of 2024.

考慮到 2024 年第一季北美大型農業銷售的強勁表現，這一點在第一季尤其值得注意。

So when we think about the first quarter of 2025, we expect top line sales for the equipment operations to be down 15% to 20% sequentially from 4Q 24, with margins 300 to 400 basis points lower than the full year guide.

因此，當我們考慮 2025 年第一季時，我們預計設備業務的營收將比 24 年第四季連續下降 15% 至 20%，利潤率比全年指引低 300 至 400 個基點。

Additionally, we are forecasting production costs be favorable in 2025 for the equipment operations, driven by primarily by improved material costs and lower overhead expenses, all despite significant volume reductions.

此外，我們預測 2025 年設備營運的生產成本將有利，這主要是由於材料成本的提高和管理費用的降低，儘管產量大幅減少。

Overall, we expect to see positive price cost for the full fiscal year yet.

整體而言，我們預計整個財年的價格成本仍將呈正值。

Another example of the structure improvements.

結構改進的另一個例子。

Our teams continue to deliver Josh's.

我們的團隊繼續交付喬許的。

That's a great walk around the world as well as gain additional insight into where we're projecting production costs for 2025.

這是環遊世界的一次很棒的徒步旅行，同時還可以進一步了解我們預計 2025 年的生產成本。

We've talked extensively about 2025 order books and new inventories, but a significant concern heading into next year's North American used inventories.

我們廣泛討論了 2025 年訂單簿和新庫存，但一個重大問題是明年的北美二手庫存。

Last quarter, we discussed the levers we're pulling to return to long-term averages.

上個季度，我們討論了為恢復長期平均水準所採取的措施。

For the next question for you.

對於您的下一個問題。

Can you give us an update on where we stand in North America and what steps we're taking to manage inventory levels?

您能否向我們介紹我們在北美的最新情況以及我們正在採取哪些措施來管理庫存水準？

Yes, sure, Josh.

是的，當然，喬許。

It is you just heard our team has done an excellent job proactively managing new inventories, and we're seeing the benefits of those decisions play out in 2025.

您剛剛聽說我們的團隊在主動管理新庫存方面做得非常出色，我們將看到這些決策的好處將在 2025 年發揮出來。

But as you noted, our primary focus for us us over the last few quarters and now heading into the new fiscal year is to diligently work to bring down new levels, especially late model harvesting equipment, row-crop tractors.

但正如您所指出的，我們在過去幾個季度和現在進入新財年的主要重點是努力降低新水平，特別是新型收割設備、中耕作物拖拉機。

Broadly speaking, we're seeing used inventory to new sales ratio starting to plateau or just above the long-term average.

從廣義上講，我們看到二手庫存與新銷售的比率開始趨於穩定或略高於長期平均值。

While it's too early to call an inflection point on used equipment, but we are encouraged by the slowdown in growth that we saw during the fourth quarter.

雖然現在稱二手設備出現拐點還為時過早，但我們對第四季度成長放緩感到鼓舞。

As we look at used inventory by model year, we're seeing a similar phenomenon, both row-crop tractors and combines when compared to long term average distributions.

當我們按車型年份查看二手庫存時，與長期平均分佈相比，我們看到了類似的現象，無論是中耕作物拖拉機還是聯合收割機。

The current mix of used is heavier than normal in one to two year old equipment and correspondingly lighter and in model year 19 to 21 equipment.

目前使用的混合材料在使用一年至兩年的設備中比正常情況重，而在型號 19 至 21 的設備中相應地較輕。

This correlates closely to a trade ladder and which three, three to market pricing backdrop, along with compression and farm net incomes, putting pressure on trade differentials slowed in this part of the trade latter.

這與貿易階梯密切相關，其中三、三市場定價背景，以及農業淨收入的壓縮，對這部分貿易的貿易差異帶來壓力，後者放緩。

As a result, we're hyper focused on helping these farmers transition to this next generation of it equipment, which is need those SB planning.

因此，我們非常專注於幫助這些農民過渡到下一代 IT 設備，這需要 SB 的規劃。

In turn, this will help the used market return to a more normal distribution mix by vintage of machine.

反過來，這將有助於二手市場透過機器的年份恢復到更正常的分配組合。

Our approach to reducing used inventories is three-pronged.

我們減少二手庫存的方法是三管齊下的。

First and foremost, we've managed new inventory levels to ensure we don't flood the market as equipment demand moderates.

首先也是最重要的是，我們管理了新的庫存水平，以確保我們不會因設備需求放緩而充斥市場。

Second, we're working closely with our dealers to drive targeted programs and engagement with each customer to understand their needs and what's most impactful to their bottom line.

其次，我們與經銷商密切合作，推動有針對性的計劃並與每位客戶互動，以了解他們的需求以及對他們的利潤影響最大的因素。

one example, the changes we made in 2024 as a result of this engagement is the offering of new financing programs, which have been greatly appreciated by both our customers and the dealer supporting them.

舉個例子，我們在 2024 年因這項合作而做出的改變是提供新的融資計劃，這些計劃受到了我們的客戶和支持他們的經銷商的高度讚賞。

Finally were further elevating pooled fund contributions to ensure dealers have the necessary funds to drive new sales.

最後，進一步提高集合資金貢獻，以確保經銷商有必要的資金來推動新的銷售。

Stepping back despite the softer end markets, our dealers remain healthy for not only focused on managing used inventories in the near term, but are also committed to continuing to invest in our technology journey.

儘管終端市場疲軟，但我們的經銷商仍然保持健康，不僅專注於短期內管理二手庫存，而且還致力於繼續投資我們的技術之旅。

It the end of the day, our dealers are focused on one goal, consistently delivering greater value to our customers.

歸根結底，我們的經銷商都專注於一個目標，不斷為我們的客戶提供更大的價值。

Corey, I wanted to add a comment on the current state of our dealer network.

科里，我想對我們經銷商網路的現狀發表評論。

Our dealers are in a structurally better positioned today versus previous cycles.

與之前的周期相比，今天我們的經銷商在結構上處於更好的位置。

We continue to work in close partnership with them to stay ahead of inventory demand changes.

我們將繼續與他們密切合作，以領先於庫存需求變化。

We recognize that we wouldn't have made the progress that we've seen in the field inventory without the execution of our dealers.

我們認識到，如果沒有經銷商的執行力，我們就不可能在現場庫存方面取得如此進展。

They have and continue to invest in specialized capabilities as well, meaning strongly capitalized.

他們也已經並將繼續投資於專業能力，這意味著資本雄厚。

This strength in our aligned purpose, enhance the level of service and support that our customers receive, which remains our primary goal.

我們的一致目標的優勢在於提高客戶獲得的服務和支援水平，這仍然是我們的首要目標。

Thanks, Corey and John, That's great perspective.

謝謝科里和約翰，這是很好的觀點。

Let's shift now to the construction and forestry 2024.

現在讓我們轉向 2024 年建築和林業。

It was a dynamic here and really a story of two halves, starting with solid stable demand in the first two quarters, consistent with the strong levels that we saw in 23.

這是一個動態的過程，實際上是一個分為兩部分的故事，首先是前兩個季度的需求穩定，與我們在 23 年看到的強勁水平一致。

The second half, however, gave way to softening retails and tougher competition, which ultimately pressured margins as we proactively shifted to under-producing retail demand in the earthmoving segment in the fourth quarter.

然而，下半年零售疲軟和競爭更加激烈，最終對利潤率造成壓力，因為我們在第四季主動轉向土方領域生產不足的零售需求。

Josh, Bill, can you walk us through what happened and how this will impact 2025?

喬許 (Josh)、比爾 (Bill)，你們能否向我們介紹一下發生了什麼以及這將如何影響 2025 年？

We are definitely.

我們絕對是。

As you noted, we saw ongoing strength in retail demand for earth moving equipment in the first half of 2024 for that shifted to a softening market and both our third and fourth quarters.

正如您所指出的，我們看到 2024 年上半年土方設備的零售需求持續強勁，市場轉為疲軟，第三季和第四季也是如此。

We're seeing that should trend continued this next year.

我們看到這種趨勢明年應該會持續下去。

It has reflected our industry guides for both construction and compact construction.

它反映了我們的建築和緊湊型建築行業指南。

We expect further softening in 2025.

我們預計 2025 年將進一步疲軟。

Construction work is so robust and government infrastructure spending associated with the IGA is still less than 50% awarded.

建設工作如此強勁，與 IGA 相關的政府基礎設施支出的撥款仍不足 50%。

Our customers continue to see a strong backlog of work, albeit a lot oxides, different competition, which is driving down bids and overall province compounded by elevated interest rates.

我們的客戶繼續看到大量積壓的工作，儘管存在大量氧化物和不同的競爭，這導致出價和整體省份的下降，再加上利率上升。

And a recently re-fleeting rental industry was less near term appetite for new equipment purchases.

最近重新出現的租賃業近期對新設備購買的興趣減弱。

Despite these pressures, it's worth reiterating that we continue to see a robust utilization of equipment in the field.

儘管面臨這些壓力，但值得重申的是，我們仍然看到現場設備的強勁利用。

Freshwater earlier mentioned our decision to under-produce earthmoving retail demand in the fourth quarter of 2024, which successfully drove down field inventories over the past three months.

Freshwater 早些時候提到，我們決定在 2024 年第四季抑制土方零售需求，這成功地降低了過去三個月的現場庫存。

Given the additional softening in retail demand that we're anticipating in 2025.

鑑於我們預計 2025 年零售需求將進一步疲軟。

We've made the decision to continue to under-produce retail in the first half of next year to ensure sorry, levels are appropriately size to respond to demand changes in the back half of 2025.

我們決定在明年上半年繼續減少零售產量，以確保水準適當，以應對 2025 年下半年的需求變化。

In fact, much like large ag this past quarter.

事實上，這很像上個季度的大型農業公司。

First, moving lines that are North American factories will be shut down for approximately half of the total production days in the first quarter of the year.

首先，北美工廠的移動生產線將關閉今年第一季總生產天數的約一半。

As we have a material impact on our quarterly decremental margins as well as overall profitability for the segment in the quarter.

因為我們對季度利潤下降以及該季度該部門的整體盈利能力產生了重大影響。

Given the steady outlook for road building, combined with demand and global forestry being flat to down 5%, we expect these product lines to provide stability to our overall Construction & Forestry segment.

鑑於道路建設前景穩定，加上需求和全球林業持平至下降 5%，我們預計這些產品線將為我們的整個建築和林業部門提供穩定性。

This is Josh.

這是喬許。

Maybe just to summarize here, we feel good about our CMF business.

也許只是在這裡總結一下，我們對我們的 CMF 業務感覺良好。

However, we're being proactive learning lessons from previous cycles as well as our ag business is important to note that even with this underproduction, we're weathering the demand reduction, the competitive environment better than we have in the past.

然而，我們正在積極吸取之前週期的經驗教訓，值得注意的是，我們的農業業務即使在生產不足的情況下，我們也比過去更好地經受住了需求減少和競爭環境的考驗。

There is a testament to the efforts of our team to drive structural improvements along size.

這證明了我們團隊為推動規模結構改進所做的努力。

Differential rated customer value has continued to concentrate our investments in margin accretive opportunities.

差異化的客戶價值評級持續將我們的投資集中在利潤增值機會上。

Yes, that's great insight into what appears to be a dynamic market right now, Josh, given the tougher competition and uncertainty surrounding long term end market demand are in a production should put us in the best positioned to generate strong returns in the back half of the.

是的，喬希，這對目前看來充滿活力的市場有很好的洞察力，鑑於長期終端市場需求的競爭更加激烈和不確定性，生產應該使我們處於最佳位置，能夠在下半年產生強勁的回報這。

Now for our livestock topic, I'd like to focus on our technology progress does incorporate there have been quite a few new product releases and milestones achieved over the last 12 months.

現在，對於我們的畜牧業​​主題，我想專注於我們的技術進步，其中包括過去 12 個月內發布的許多新產品和實現的里程碑。

Can you walk us through some of those key highlights from what it means for the business going forward?

您能否向我們介紹一些關鍵亮點，了解它們對未來業務的意義？

Sure I can start in the 24 represent of the year of significant new product introductions and technological advancements available on our model year 25 equipment.

當然，我可以從 24 年度開始，我們的 25 型號設備將推出重大新產品和技術進步。

These releases ranging from our most powerful tractor ever designed to new seeding equipment to the most advanced harvesting harvesting technology to date are a testament to the success we've seen our production systems approach.

這些發布的產品範圍從我們有史以來設計的最強大的拖拉機到新的播種設備，再到迄今為止最先進的收割技術，都證明了我們的生產系統方法所取得的成功。

At the top end of our tech stack, we're seeing record adoption of some of our most advanced features.

在我們技術堆疊的頂端，我們看到一些最先進功能的採用創紀錄。

For example, over 75% of combined ELP. orders have opted for our highest level of harvest settings, automation because the immediate value this technology will bring their operations.

例如，超過 75% 的綜合 ELP。訂單選擇了我們最高水準的收穫設定——自動化，因為這項技術將為他們的營運帶來直接價值。

In fact, we expect our customers will experience up to 20% boost on average in harvest productivity from this feature alone.

事實上，我們預計僅透過此功能，我們的客戶就能獲得平均高達 20% 的收穫生產力提升。

Another great example would be large ag equipment in Brazil.

另一個很好的例子是巴西的大型農業設備。

We brought our new inventory levels down to target over the course of the year while managing to both maintain and grow market share.

我們在這一年中將新的庫存水準降至目標，同時設法維持和擴大市場份額。

And this means that we not only grow the share of acres covered by equipment, but also the number of acres connected to our John Deere Operations Center, which ultimately means more productive, more profitable farmers, right, Corey.

這意味著我們不僅增加了設備覆蓋的面積份額，還增加了與約翰迪爾營運中心相連的面積，這最終意味著農民的生產力更高、利潤更高，對吧，科里。

And I put that statistic in perspective with our global in these acres grow by nearly 20% this past year, reaching 455 million acres, South America of nearly 30% growth in highly engaged acres, which currently make up over 25% of our total engaged acres is outpacing the overall growth trend and engaged acres as we see deeper and broader utilization level year over year.

我將這項統計數據與過去一年我們全球的種植面積增加了近 20%，達到 4.55 億英畝，南美洲的高度參與面積增加了近 30%，目前占我們總參與面積的 25% 以上隨著我們看到利用率水準逐年加深和擴大，英畝的成長速度超過了整體成長趨勢，參與面積也有所增加。

Growth in highly engaged acres is over 30% with South America and notably up nearly 50% of the well, you know to the adoption of some of our latest technologies has exceeded expectations.

南美洲的高度參與面積增長超過 30%，特別是油​​井增長了近 50%，您知道，我們一些最新技術的採用超出了預期。

We're also continuing to see significant growth in adoption of some of our more established solution during this downturn as farmers seek ways to enhance productivity and improve margins.

在這次經濟低迷時期，隨著農民尋求提高生產力和提高利潤的方法，我們的一些更成熟的解決方案的採用率也持續顯著增長。

For example, the adoption of exact applied technology on model year 25 sprayers increased by over over 10% year over year, reaching a nearly 70 80% take rate in this year's early order program.

例如，25 款噴霧機採用精確應用技術的比例年增超過 10%，在今年的早期訂單計畫中達到了近 70% 80% 的採用率。

And See & Spray, as John mentioned, recovered over 1 million acres in 2024, but just a few hundred units in the field for 2025 across both factory installed option and retrofit precision upgrades.

正如 John 所提到的，See & Spray 在 2024 年恢復了超過 100 萬英畝的土地，但到 2025 年，無論是工廠安裝選項還是改造精度升級，現場都只有幾百個單位。

We have currently taken over 1,000 orders for new See & Spray Premium and Ultimate units.

目前，我們已收到 1,000 多個新 See & Spray Premium 和 Ultimate 裝置的訂單。

As a result, we expect to see a significant increase in the number of acres covered by See & Spray technology in the 2025 season.

因此，我們預計 2025 年 See & Spray 技術覆蓋的英畝數將顯著增加。

Exactly when you have technology that you know is going to save money for your customers, you want to get that solution in their lives, a revolutionary technology that requires our customers to invest time and effort to transform their crop care programs.

正是當您擁有知道將為客戶省錢的技術時，您希望在他們的生活中獲得該解決方案，這是一項革命性的技術，需要我們的客戶投入時間和精力來改變他們的作物護理計劃。

But we also know that typically we have a customer see it work in their field or in their operation.

但我們也知道，通常會有客戶看到它在他們的領域或他們的營運中發揮作用。

There, they see the value.

在那裡，他們看到了價值。

Our goal is to enable more customers to experience the impact of our See & Spray technology by leveraging a different business model to unlock that value, which is more crucial than ever in the current macro environment.

我們的目標是透過利用不同的商業模式來釋放該價值，讓更多客戶體驗我們的 See & Spray 技術的影響，這在當前的宏觀環境中比以往任何時候都更加重要。

Gordon, this is Jeff.

戈登，這是傑夫。

So maybe one thing to add onto that.

所以也許需要補充一件事。

There's been quite a bit of discussion about our pay-per-use model.

關於我們的按使用付費模式進行了很多討論。

And if it's the right go-to-market strategy for some of our latest technology offerings, the reality is that we're seeing higher levels of adoption using this model compared to our traditional upfront pricing approach.

如果這是我們一些最新技術產品的正確上市策略，那麼事實是，與我們傳統的預先定價方法相比，我們看到使用這種模式的採用率更高。

But only when it makes sense.

但只有當它有意義時。

For example, take our precision ag essentials kit, which includes three foundational pieces of technology, guidance, connectivity and onboard compute needed to run any of our other precision technology solutions.

例如，以我們的精密農業必需品套件為例，其中包括運行我們任何其他精密技術解決方案所需的三項基礎技術、指導、連接和機載計算。

We recently changed the pricing model from a one-time costs to recurring license that allows customers to access the vital technology at a fraction of the traditional upfront investment.

我們最近將定價模式從一次性成本更改為定期許可證，使客戶能夠以傳統前期投資的一小部分來存取重要技術。

In the 1st year alone, we sold over 8,000 kits, and these kids are being installed on equipment with an average model year vintage of 2012.

光是第一年，我們就售出了 8,000 多個套件，這些孩子安裝的設備的平均型號年份為 2012 年。

This example highlights the importance of finding new ways to meet our customers at every stage of their Precision Tech during, it also emphasizes our commitment to providing cost healing solutions that enable all customers to adopt the Precision Technology regardless of the size of their operations.

這個例子強調了尋找新方法來滿足客戶在 Precision Tech 的每個階段的重要性，它還強調了我們致力於提供成本修復解決方案，使所有客戶無論其業務規模如何都能夠採用 Precision Technology。

Thanks, Al.

謝謝，艾爾。

It's great to see so many proof points demonstrating how our continuous through-cycle investments in the business is driving significant innovation and differentiated value for our customers.

很高興看到如此多的證據證明我們對業務的持續全週期投資如何為我們的客戶推動重大創新和差異化價值。

Now before we open up the line for questions.

現在，在我們開放提問之前。

Josh Jepsen, do you have any final thoughts you'd like share would be great.

喬許傑普森（Josh Jepsen），您有什麼最後的想法想分享嗎？

Start by echoing John's comments from earlier 2024 marked a year of resiliency, resiliency in our business and resiliency in our in our employees, who, in the face of significant challenges throughout the year, still perform at the highest level and with the utmost determination.

首先回應約翰在 2024 年初的評論，這是充滿彈性的一年，我們的業務充滿彈性，我們的員工也充滿彈性，面對全年的重大挑戰，他們仍然以最高的水平和最大的決心表現。

And as a result, we delivered strong performance, including over $25 and EPS mark in the second best level in Company history and returned over 5.6 billion to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks.

結果，我們取得了強勁的業績，包括超過 25 美元和每股收益達到公司歷史第二高的水平，並透過股息和股票回購向股東回報超過 56 億美元。

It's noteworthy that our earnings per share and cash returned to shareholders know we surpassed historical mid-cycle levels, but also historical peaks.

值得注意的是，我們的每股盈餘和返還給股東的現金表明我們不僅超過了歷史中期水平，而且也超過了歷史高峰。

This performance is yet another proof point of the structural shift, commence improvement that we've made in the business and will build upon going forward.

這項業績是結構性轉變的另一個證明點，是我們在業務中所取得的改進的開始，並將在此基礎上繼續前進。

And possibly even more important is the fact we were able to do all of this while maintaining significant investment in the business across across both R&D and new product capital spending.

可能更重要的是，我們能夠做到這一切，同時在研發和新產品資本支出方面保持對業務的大量投資。

As we look forward, we're encouraged by the significant pipeline of opportunities ahead opportunities that we believe will drive even greater levels of customer productivity and profitability.

展望未來，我們對未來的大量機會感到鼓舞，我們相信這些機會將推動更高水準的客戶生產力和獲利能力。

Well, as our continued rollout of differentiated, high-quality hard iron ore are increasing breadth of Precision Technology Solutions.

隨著我們不斷推出差異化的優質硬鐵礦石，精密技術解決方案的範圍不斷擴大。

Our focus is on making sure that each dollar unlocks the most incremental value because at the end of the date, the only way we succeed is if our customers succeed.

我們的重點是確保每一美元都能釋放最大的增值價值，因為最終，我們成功的唯一方法就是我們的客戶成功。

As we looked ahead to 2025, we're excited and confident as ever that we can perform at step function levels better than previous cycles are proactive decisions in 2024 have positioned us well to achieve structurally better margins in what we anticipate will be a sub 80% of mid-cycle year for our equipment operations.

當我們展望2025 年時，我們一如既往地感到興奮和自信，因為我們能夠以比之前週期更好的階梯功能水平執行任務，2024 年的主動決策使我們能夠在結構上實現更好的利潤，預計將達到80 以下我們的設備運作佔中期週期的百分比。

Said more simply, we expect to deliver higher margins that trough than we did during the previous peak in 2013.

更簡單地說，我們預期谷底的利潤率將高於 2013 年上一個高峰期的利潤率。

We're proud of what we've accomplished this year, but we're never satisfied.

我們對今年所取得的成就感到自豪，但我們永遠不會滿足。

We come to work every day focused on solving the challenges our customers face.

我們每天工作的重點是解決客戶面臨的挑戰。

2025 will be another year of disciplined, hard work and renewed focus to ensure our customers can achieve more tomorrow than they did today.

2025 年將是紀律嚴明、辛勤工作和重新聚焦的另一年，以確保我們的客戶明天能夠取得比今天更多的成就。

Thanks, Josh Hallett, open up the line to questions from our investors.

謝謝喬許·哈雷特（Josh Hallett），歡迎我們的投資者提問。

We're now ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call.

我們現在準備開始電話的問答部分。

The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure and consideration of others, and our hope to allow more of you to participate on the call.

接線員將指導您了解投票程序和其他人的考慮，我們希望讓更多的人參與通話。

Please limit yourself to one question that you have additional questions.

請只回答一個問題，否則您還有其他問題。

We ask that you rejoin the queue.

我們要求您重新加入隊列。

Operator.

操作員。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And now if you do have a question, please press star one, if you will be announced by name and company.

現在，如果您確實有疑問，請按星號一，我們會公佈您的姓名和公司。

Still, you know when your line is open.

不過，您知道您的線路何時開放。

And our first question is from Christopher Nolan with Oppenheimer.

我們的第一個問題來自克里斯多福諾蘭和奧本海默。

Your line is now open.

您的線路現已開通。

Hi, good morning and thank you so much for taking the question.

你好，早安，非常感謝你提出問題。

And we'll add some color commentary, particularly around and kind of the cadence into one.

我們將添加一些色彩評論，特別是關於節奏的評論。

But and I'm just wondering if we can get a little bit of a cleaner branch on what the margin expectations are for 2020 side.

但我只是想知道我們是否可以對 2020 年的利潤率預期有更清晰的了解。

What are the puts and takes in terms of ad productivity cost that you're carrying of our raw materials and the headline tenant production and our staff?

您對我們的原料、主要租戶生產和員工的廣告生產力成本的投入和支出是多少？

Yes, some good progress in that area.

是的，該領域取得了一些良好進展。

I'll take a shot.

我會開槍。

And in Japan, Guy, I think as we think about margin notice, there's a few things that place here at play here.

在日本，蓋伊，我認為當我們考慮保證金通知時，有一些事情在這裡發揮作用。

As you look at 2025, first, first and foremost And notably, I think, is just the continued volume declines that we're seeing in the market.

展望 2025 年，我認為首先最重要的是我們在市場上看到的銷售量持續下降。

No expectations of as you look at the end of it, fuel guides would be that total equipment operations would be down in kind of around 13% for the U.S. for the full year.

當你看到最後時，燃料指南不會預期美國全年的設備總運行量將下降約 13%。

And certainly that continued level of volume reduction is weighing on the margins there.

當然，銷售量的持續減少正在影響那裡的利潤。

As we mentioned, we expect pricing to be positive across all three segments and Josh Jepsen mentioned and the unfavorable production costs as well.

正如我們所提到的，我們預計所有三個細分市場的定價均為正值，喬許·傑普森也提到過，而且生產成本也不利。

Also receiving seeing favorable price cost.

也收到看到優惠的價格成本。

And in addition to that, obviously, some of the decisions we've made in terms of reducing costs this year will carry over into next year as well, providing a lift from.

除此之外，顯然，我們今年在降低成本方面所做的一些決定也將延續到明年，從而提供提升。

And so overall, you know it.

總的來說，你知道的。

And as we mentioned in our margin expectations relative to history, very strong.

正如我們在相對於歷史水準的利潤率預期中所提到的，非常強勁。

I think maybe lastly, if you think about decrementals come up, probably a little bit higher than than the normal on the large ag business.

我想也許最後，如果你考慮到遞減，可能會比大型農業業務的正常情況高一點。

That's really a mix driven impacts as we think about the large ag business in North America being down around 30% of our our sales reduction will be less than that given the comp to 2024 and enter production that we did this year, but still the outsized reduction in one of our most profitable regions.

這確實是一個混合驅動的影響，因為我們認為北美的大型農業業務下降了約30%，我們的銷售額減少量將小於考慮到2024 年的比較並進入我們今年所做的生產，但仍然規模過大我們最賺錢的地區之一的減少。

And so our most profitable product lines our way on decrementals next year.

因此，我們最賺錢的產品明年將逐漸減少。

Thanks, Kristen.

謝謝，克里斯汀。

Our next question is from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Yes, hi.

是的，嗨。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I'm wondering if you could just expand on the pool funds program and the use of funds to help the trade-ins for oh eight model year equipment.

我想知道您是否可以擴大池基金計劃並使用資金來幫助以舊換新八年型號的設備。

I know you can move around pool funds a year to year, and given the incentive last year from the rebates to dealers who appears quite a bit that you're able to deploy it yet because inventory levels down.

我知道你可以每年調動資金池，並考慮到去年向經銷商提供的回扣激勵，由於庫存水準下降，你似乎還可以部署它。

Can you can you just flesh it out for us?

你能為我們充實一下嗎？

And if you don't mind just share the order of magnitude on how much you can put in that direction?

如果您不介意的話，請分享您可以在這個方向上投入多少資金？

Yes.

是的。

Hey, Jerry of.

嘿，傑瑞。

Yes, if you think about pool funds and maybe it's best to first put in context where we started the year and really the past couple of years, the strong equipment demand that we saw, 2022 and 2023 and the associated sales, they're really drove a record level of pooled fund balance of entering this downturn.

是的，如果您考慮集合資金，也許最好先考慮一下我們年初以及過去幾年的背景，我們看到的 2022 年和 2023 年強勁的設備需求以及相關的銷售，它們確實是推動集合基金餘額在進入本次低迷時期創下歷史新高。

And that's by does line.

那就是按 do 線。

That's how we structure the program.

這就是我們建立程式的方式。

It provides stability in the used market when we see a downturn.

當我們看到低迷時，它為二手市場提供了穩定性。

And we've seen that we've seen that play out in 2024 as those funds are being deployed by our dealers to help drive reductions in used inventory because of that.

我們已經看到，這種情況將在 2024 年發生，因為我們的經銷商正在部署這些資金，以幫助減少二手庫存。

And again, vital ByDesign, we've seen for fund balances decline over the course of the year as dealers are using those funds, we put some additional incentives that work to help support that balance.

再說一次，至關重要的 ByDesign，我們看到隨著經銷商使用這些資金，資金餘額在一年中有所下降，我們採取了一些額外的激勵措施來幫助支持這種平衡。

That's what you solid with pricing in the fourth quarter for large ag, as we talk about really, really flat pricing for the quarter.

這就是您對大型農業公司第四季度定價的確定，因為我們談論的是該季度非常非常平坦的定價。

That was really on the specific work targeted towards used and health-related lighting guide for 2025 as well.

這實際上也是針對 2025 年二手和健康相關照明指南的具體工作。

Talking about net price of 1% for the segment, um, you know, that's inclusive you think about your list price increases for next year in the range of 2% to 3%.

談到該細分市場 1% 的淨價，嗯，你知道，這包括你考慮明年的標價上漲 2% 到 3% 的範圍。

We are expecting a little bit higher incentive rate in 2025.

我們預期 2025 年激勵率會更高一些。

And the higher incentive rate is really driven by a focus on continuing to put funds to work in the Portland area.

更高的激勵率實際上是由於關注繼續將資金投入波特蘭地區的工作而推動的。

So again, supporting supporting the reduction of use that we're driving towards and will continue to do that.

再次強調，支持減少使用，我們正在努力實現這一目標，並將繼續這樣做。

And again, we can continue to do that with with positive price.

再說一遍，我們可以繼續以正價格做到這一點。

Jerry's, Josh, the only other thing I'd add, I mean, it on top of just the pool funds on used, we had it.

傑裡的，喬什，我唯一要補充的另一件事，我的意思是，除了已使用的資金池之外，我們還有它。

We had a good finish to the year from a retail perspective on new, Josh, we laid out where we ended from a from an inventory perspective, whether it's large ag in North America or South America.

從零售角度來看，我們今年取得了良好的收官，喬什，我們從庫存角度列出了我們的收尾情況，無論是北美還是南美的大型農業。

Rest of it are really strong retail, October and the construction division.

其餘的都是真正強勁的零售業、十月和建築部門。

So we've talked about the trend, which has been pretty negative the back half of the year.

我們已經討論了這一趨勢，今年下半年的趨勢非常消極。

October was a turn for us.

十月對我們來說是一個轉捩點。

We feel as noted in pricing, we had a little more incremental incentives in the market, but we had a we had a good good month and really brought down inventory, upper upper 10s reduction in inventory in earth moving in four Q.

我們認為，正如定價中所指出的，我們在市場上有更多的增量激勵措施，但我們度過了一個美好的月份，並且確實降低了庫存，第四季度土方運輸庫存減少了10 多點。

So I think the overall between deployment and incentives in the right places where there's for newer use, we're seeing that impact, correct, like how we're positioned as we as we step into 25.

因此，我認為，在適合新用途的正確地方進行部署和激勵措施之間的整體影響，我們看到了這種影響，正確的，就像我們進入 25 年後的定位一樣。

Thanks, Gerry.

謝謝，格里。

Our next question is from Kyle Mangas with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的凱爾·曼加斯。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I was hoping if you could just unpack some of the four year guidance a little bit.

我希望您能稍微解開四年指導的一些內容。

Sounds like it is back half weighted or just love to hear if that's kind of baking in any assumed an improvement in retail demand and some major end markets, ag and construction, it is more.

聽起來好像是半權重回歸，或者只是想聽聽這是否對任何假設的零售需求和一些主要終端市場、農業和建築業的改善有所推動。

So Kyle, related to, I think year over year comps, you think that large barge, absent the compared to 23 in the back half, it was down 30, um, similarly in construction and forestry, first half of 2024, down 4% year over year, back half down 20.

所以凱爾，我認為與去年同期相比，你認為大型駁船，與下半年的 23 艘相比，下降了 30，嗯，建築和林業領域類似，2024 年上半年下降了 4%與去年同期相比，下降了一半20。

As you look at how that's going to play out in year over year comps for 2025, we would expect greater year-over-year declines in the first half of the year for both segments, particularly construction and forestry, where we talked about in a significant underproduction in the first half of the year, um, and then those those comps will get progressively better as we move through the year.

當你看到 2025 年的同比比較結果時，我們預計這兩個領域的同比下降幅度更大，特別是建築業和林業，我們在今年上半年生產嚴重不足，嗯，然後隨著我們今年的進展，這些比較將逐漸變得更好。

When you're comparing to the back half of 2024 pick up.

當你與 2024 年下半年的情況進行比較時。

Our next question is from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Hi Omniflight in two quick ones, if you don't mind, just sort of piggybacking off the last comment.

嗨，Omniflight，如果您不介意的話，請快速寫兩篇，只是順應最後的評論。

So the first quarter just using midpoints right around $3 of running sales down middle of a 27%, EPS down about 50.

因此，第一季僅使用 3 美元左右的中點，銷售額就下降了 27%，每股收益下降了約 50%。

But the rest of the year that has implied Mino sales are only down nine earnings, it's down about 15.

但今年剩下的時間裡，Mino 的銷售額僅下降了 9 倍，收益下降了約 15 倍。

Just curious on trying to pin you to our quarterly cadence, but just we have a sense of how the underproduction ceasing later in the year was how are you interpreting it?

只是好奇想讓您了解我們的季度節奏，但我們知道今年稍後生產不足的情況如何停止，您對此有何解釋？

Are we back to growth year over year by the third quarter?

到第三季我們會恢復年成長嗎？

And then second, not to get in trouble.

第二，不要惹麻煩。

Just curious your thoughts given the platform, the answer with the new administration coming in.

只是好奇你對這個平台的想法，以及新政府上任後的答案。

Just how are you thinking about the impact from tariffs?

您如何看待關稅的影響？

Could maybe compare it to last time, the immigration question and obviously the appointment of the new Secretary of Health and Human Services.

也許可以將其與上次的移民問題以及新任衛生與公眾服務部部長的任命進行比較。

Just how to think about framework wise, how that could impact how farmers are thinking about their business?

只是如何明智地思考框架，這會如何影響農民對他們的業務的看法？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

Thanks for the questions.

感謝您的提問。

Of start starting with the first one on the year.

從今年的第一個開始。

Yes, I mean, as Josh Jepsen mentioned, we think about Q1 and particularly in sequentially, that's going to be down 15% to 20% compared to the fourth quarter.

是的，我的意思是，正如喬什·傑普森（Josh Jepsen）提到的那樣，我們考慮第一季度，特別是連續的，與第四季度相比將下降 15% 到 20%。

And as Josh mentioned, if you look at the margin expectations for the first hundred days below the full year guide for equipment off, so certainly you're going to see some more of that decline in Q1, particularly, again, noting our Construction & Forestry, which will be at the top end of that range of some top-line sequential decline that actually margins of if you think about like decrementals offer construction and forestry in the first quarter, it'll be it'll be higher than the implied guide for the full year.

正如喬希所提到的，如果你看看前一百天的利潤率預期低於全年設備關閉指南，那麼你肯定會看到第一季度的下降幅度更大，特別是再次注意到我們的建築和林業，這將處於一些營收連續下降範圍的頂端，如果你考慮第一季建築業和林業的減量，那麼實際上的利潤率將高於隱含的水平全年指南。

And again, given the underproduction And then to your question, as you as you move throughout the course of the year, those year-over-year comps get better, particularly in the back half and you get to kind of flattish, if not up a little bit as you look at 2020, a queue, three, Q4 of 2025 some odd on the new administration.

再說一次，考慮到產量不足，然後再回答你的問題，隨著你在一年中的變化，那些逐年比較會變得更好，特別是在後半段，你會變得有點平淡，如果不是上升的話回顧 2020 年，2025 年第四季的隊列、三個隊列對新政府來說有些奇怪。

I mean, obviously, we're thinking about that in terms of how it impacts our customers, how it impacts from our suppliers and certainly how it impacts our operations as well.

我的意思是，顯然，我們正在考慮它如何影響我們的客戶，它如何影響我們的供應商，當然還有它如何影響我們的營運。

I think I think too early at this point since I know exactly what that means in terms of an active policy and what the impact will be on those three stakeholder groups.

我認為我現在認為還為時過早，因為我確切地知道這對積極政策意味著什麼以及對這三個利害關係人群體的影響。

But certainly, we're engaging our we'll monitor that as we go forward.

但當然，我們正在參與我們將在前進過程中對其進行監控。

Yes, you know, in the other thing I'd like to add is we're this is John may, by the way, we're positioned really well.

是的，你知道，我想補充的另一件事是，我們是約翰·梅，順便說一句，我們的位置非常好。

We we rely heavily on our highly skilled employees in the U.S. to design in and build high quality, the most technologically advanced equipment in the world.

我們嚴重依賴美國的高技能員工來設計和製造世界上高品質、技術最先進的設備。

And as a result of that, greater than 75% of all products that we sell in the US are assembled here in the US and they are assembled by highly skilled employees, 30,000 employees in the U.S. that are located in 60 different facilities across 16 different states and a result of all of their hard efforts and frankly, manufacturing leadership result in John Deere, Ag & Turf division being a net exporter of our products manufactured in the US, exporting it to other countries.

因此，我們在美國銷售的所有產品中，有超過 75% 是在美國組裝的，這些產品是由高技能員工組裝的，美國有 30,000 名員工，分佈在 16 個不同國家的 60 個不同工廠。地說，由於他們所有的辛勤努力，約翰迪爾農業和草坪部門在製造方面的領先地位使我們成為我們在美國製造的產品的淨出口商，並將其出口到其他國家。

So we feel really positioned well.

所以我們覺得自己的定位非常好。

We've been at this for nearly 200 years building product in the US, and I'm very, very proud of our team and what they're able to accomplish that.

我們在美國從事產品開發已有近 200 年的歷史，我為我們的團隊以及他們所取得的成就感到非常非常自豪。

Thanks for the question, David.

謝謝你的提問，大衛。

Our next question from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安吉爾·卡斯蒂略。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Hi, thanks for taking my question.

您好，感謝您提出我的問題。

And I just wanted to maybe follow up a little bit more on the price dynamic and particularly in construction or you noted some bigger under production in the first quarter here.

我只是想更多地關注價格動態，特別是在建築領域，或者您注意到第一季在生產中出現了一些更大的情況。

It seems like there's a little bit of a broadening of the softening of the softness.

似乎柔軟度有一點點擴大。

I think we had talked about rental fleets as being a factor and that now because I call it a little bit broader than that.

我認為我們已經討論過租賃車隊是一個因素，現在因為我稱之為比這更廣泛的因素。

So with that in mind, can you just give us a little bit of color of what drives the price guide for the year being positive and construction?

因此，考慮到這一點，您能否給我們一些推動今年價格指南積極和建設的因素？

And or maybe how to think about that in the first half of the year versus second half?

或如何看待上半年和下半年的情況？

And then yes, just maybe more color on the trends that you're seeing outside of rental.

然後，是的，也許只是您在租賃之外看到的趨勢有更多的色彩。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, page.

感謝您的提問，頁面。

Eliminate a?

消除一個?

Yes, certainly, as we've as you've mentioned, I think the price dynamic and construction and forestry is competitive.

是的，當然，正如您所提到的，我認為價格動態以及建築和林業具有競爭力。

And as we've talked, you know, it's a balance that we're maintaining between between price and share as we as we look at the environment going ahead.

正如我們所說，您知道，當我們審視未來的環境時，我們在價格和份額之間保持平衡。

In terms of the cadence of price, I mean, route really nothing of significance there as you look at the layout of the year.

就價格節奏而言，我的意思是，當你看看今年的佈局時，路線確實沒有什麼意義。

And the other thing I'd remind remind you to is that if you think about our Construction & Forestry business and the different elements of that business, that includes Roadbuilding, which makes up 35% to 40% of that, that business as well, there's been a lot more stable and resolved, Unity get price there as well.

我要提醒您注意的另一件事是，如果您考慮我們的建築和林業業務以及該業務的不同要素，其中包括佔其中 35% 至 40% 的道路建設，該業務也是如此，有很多更穩定和解決的問題，Unity 也在那裡得到了價格。

And so that that adds into the mix, which is helpful.

這樣就可以將其添加到混合中，這是有幫助的。

But certainly it's dynamic.

但它肯定是動態的。

Thanks, Andrew.

謝謝，安德魯。

Our next question is from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Hi, everyone, and thanks, everybody, and thanks for the commentary around somebody the topics included in used equipment.

大家好，謝謝大家，感謝大家對二手設備中包含的主題進行的評論。

I'm curious if you can talk anymore about that.

我很好奇你是否還能再談談這個問題。

I don't know if you're seeing already that kind of early buyout way, but people who would be trading up nibbling at some of the higher price, higher valued used equipment.

我不知道你是否已經看到了這種早期買斷的方式，但那些願意進行交易的人會蠶食一些價格更高、價值更高的二手設備。

Don't know what, if anything you can say about where you expect dealer used inventory balances to kind of progress throughout the year that we can get to midyear and you work them down based on the production levels and our trade and forego.

不知道，如果有的話，您可以說一下您期望經銷商在全年中使用庫存餘額取得什麼進展，我們可以到年中，然後您根據生產水平和我們的貿易和放棄來降低它們。

Any any further commentary on that would be great because that seems to be a sticking point still.

任何對此的進一步評論都會很好，因為這似乎仍然是一個癥結所在。

Hey, Rob, thanks for the question.

嘿，羅布，謝謝你的提問。

Yes, I mean, we feel good about the progress we've made.

是的，我的意思是，我們對所取得的進展感到滿意。

And I think as you think about where used inventory sits in North America, it's going to be some malls that we're going to work on here over the next few quarters.

我認為當你想到北美的二手庫存在哪裡時，我們將在接下來的幾個季度中在這裡處理一些購物中心。

It's not something you turn overnight.

這不是一朝一夕就能轉變的事。

I think we feel good about the stabilized level that we saw in the fourth quarter.

我認為我們對第四季度的穩定水平感覺良好。

Keep in mind, as you think about quarter quarterly cadence on use of Q4 for us is a big quarter in a retail standpoint of new equipment that drives trade-ins coming in into the pipeline.

請記住，從新設備的零售角度來看，第四季度對我們來說是一個重要的季度，推動了以舊換新的進入。

And so to be able to maintain and kind of mitigate the increase we've seen in the quarter, we feel good about your Q. one provides a really a good opportunity for us as we think about year end, tax buying production levels a little bit lower typically in the first quarter of sequentially this this next quarter and one provides an opportunity to continue to drive that down.

因此，為了能夠維持並減輕我們在本季度看到的成長，我們對您的問題感到滿意。在第一季會比下一個季度的情況有所下降，並且提供了繼續降低這一水平的機會。

But we'll be working over that again over the course of the next couple of quarters.

但我們將在接下來的幾季中再次解決這個問題。

Yes, Robyn score at we've seen as we closed out there harvest this year, we saw better than expected yields.

是的，羅賓的得分是我們今年收成結束時看到的，我們看到了比預期更好的產量。

Obviously, price has been a concern, but we've seen more profitability than was likely expected.

顯然，價格一直是一個問題，但我們看到的盈利能力超出了預期。

Pricing activity in the market has been good.

市場定價活動一直都很好。

We said we're not ready to call the inflection point where we have seen use levels plateau, even though we had strong retail in the fourth quarter.

我們表示，儘管我們第四季的零售業務強勁，但我們還沒有準備好迎接使用水平趨於穩定的轉折點。

We continue.

我們繼續。

We underproduced to demand and we we saw the effects of that on on the new side, but it's also showing up in what we do and use the dealers tactical focus on being able to rightsize the value of these machines, rightsized the value the trades we're seeing people come back into the market.

我們產量不足，我們看到了這對新方面的影響，但這也體現在我們所做的事情中，並利用經銷商的戰術重點來調整這些機器的價值，調整我們的交易價值看到人們回到市場。

The bottom line is if you take a late model used row crop tractor that those products are needed is people expand high speed planning in the market.

最重要的是，如果您購買最新型號的二手行間作物拖拉機，那麼人們需要這些產品來擴大市場的高速規劃。

We were taking high-speed down further into the marketplace as they go out to plant and tighter windows late model, high horsepower row crops are needed, and we're seeing people come back into the market for them.

當他們外出種植時，我們將高速進一步推向市場，需要更緊密的後期型號、高馬力的行間作物，我們看到人們回到市場購買它們。

But we have time for one more question.

但我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our last question is from Jamie Cook with Truist Securities.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Jamie Cook。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Hey, good morning and thanks for letting me ask the question.

嘿，早上好，謝謝你讓我問這個問題。

I'm just back to the decrementals on PP. and I am a little worse probably than I would've thought.

我剛剛回到 PP 上的減量。我可能比我想像的還要糟糕一些。

And so my question is to what degree is pricing.

所以我的問題是定價到什麼程度。

I know you said positive pricing for at for the year, but like with North America down 30% and comprising the positive in that region.

我知道您說過今年的積極定價，但就像北美下降了 30%，並且包括該地區的積極定價。

And then just the a follow-up.

然後就是後續行動。

I know you said equipment operations will be 80% of mid-cycle for 2025.

我知道您說過 2025 年設備運作將佔週期中期的 80%。

Just your thoughts are on where large ag is can be relative to mid cycle as we exit the year and obviously what that means for 26.

只是你的想法是，當我們結束今年時，大型農業相對於週期中期的位置以及這對 26 意味著什麼。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Jami.

賈米。

Thank thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Yes, we expect to maintain positive price in North America.

是的，我們預期北美將維持正價。

And again, you're taking production costs as well as to price price cost will be positive, more muted than we've seen.

再說一次，你所考慮的生產成本以及價格成本將是正值，比我們所看到的更溫和。

We talk about 1% price realization on in how do we do that?

我們討論了 1% 的價格實現，我們如何做到這一點？

I mean, it starts with the new inventory levels that we talked about.

我的意思是，這要從我們討論的新庫存水準開始。

Again, kind of reiterate your 200,000 horsepower tractors and above, we reduced the units in the field by of by 50% over the course of the year.

再次重申一下，對於 20 萬馬力及以上的拖拉機，我們在這一年中將現場設備數量減少了 50%。

Inventory to sales ratios were to 20 horsepower and above like a 10%.

20 匹馬力以上的庫存與銷售比率約為 10%。

So very, very low combines a 4% because of those tight levels that allows us to maintain that price.

如此非常非常低的組合為 4%，因為這些嚴格的水平使我們能夠維持這個價格。

But again, as I mentioned, we've contemplated some increased level of incentives next year.

但正如我所提到的，我們已經考慮明年增加一定程度的激勵措施。

That increased level is going towards use that's going towards mobile phones, as Gary described.

正如加里所描述的，這種增加的水平將用於行動電話的使用。

We continue to work that down and continue to support our dealers and helping them make those trades.

我們將繼續努力解決這個問題，並繼續支持我們的經銷商並幫助他們進行這些交易。

But net-net, given all those in the year, C.J., Muse, as Josh said, there were no.

但是淨淨，考慮到這一年的所有這些，C.J.，繆斯，正如喬什所說，沒有。

one other thing I'd point out is Brazil and 24, given given kind of all the challenges, there was a negative from price perspective.

我要指出的另一件事是巴西和 24，考慮到所有的挑戰，從價格角度來看存在負面影響。

We see that bounce back and we see positive price in 25, I think reflective of a flatter environment, inventories in better shape.

我們看到反彈，25 月價格呈正值，我認為這反映了環境更加平坦，庫存狀況更好。

So we expect that to turn on favorably.

因此，我們預計這種情況會有利地發展。

So I think as you walk across the globe, we would expect positive price and PPA in every region of the world.

因此，我認為，當你走遍全球時，我們預計世界每個地區都會出現積極的價格和購電協議。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks all of that concludes our call for today.

謝謝大家，我們今天的電話會議到此結束。

We appreciate everybody's time and for those us in the U.S., we have a great Thanksgiving holiday, have a great day.

我們感謝大家抽出時間，對於我們在美國的人來說，我們度過了一個愉快的感恩節假期，度過了美好的一天。

As they are concluded.

正如他們所得出的結論。

Again, thank you for your participation today.

再次感謝您今天的參與。

You may disconnect at this time.

此時您可以斷開連線。