強鹿 (DE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Deere and Company Fourth-Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Your lines have been placed on listen-only until the question and answer session of today's conference. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr Josh Beal, Director of Investor Relations. And thank you, sir. You may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加迪爾公司第四季財報電話會議。在今天會議的問答環節之前，您的線路已設為僅供收聽。我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監 Josh Beal 先生。謝謝您，先生。你可以開始了。

Hello, welcome and thank you for joining us on today's call. Joining me on the call today are John May, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Josh Jepsen, Chief Financial Officer; Cory Reed, President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production Precision Ag, Americas and Australia; and Josh Rohleder, Manager of Investor Communications.

您好，歡迎並感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長約翰‧梅 (John May)；喬許‧傑普森，財務長； Cory Reed，Production Precision Ag 美洲和澳洲全球農業和草坪部門總裁；喬希‧羅勒 (Josh Rohleder)，投資人溝通經理。

Today, we will take a closer look at deer's fourth quarter earnings, then spend time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal 2025. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at John Deeree dotcom forward slash earnings. First, a reminder this call is broadcast live on the internet and recorded for future transmission and use by deer and company. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of deer is strictly prohibited.

今天，我們將仔細研究鹿的第四季度收益，然後花時間討論我們的市場和我們目前對 2025 財年的展望。請注意，我們提供了幻燈片來補充今天早上的電話會議。您可以在我們的網站上造訪 John Deeree dotcom 的正向斜線收益。首先，提醒一下，這個叫聲在網路上直播，並被記錄下來，供鹿和公司將來傳輸和使用。未經鹿明確書面同意，嚴禁對本受版權保護的廣播的任何部分進行任何其他使用、錄製或傳輸。

Participants in the call including the Q&A session agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

包括問答環節在內的電話會議參與者同意，他們在所有媒體上的肖像和言論可能會被儲存並用作財報電話會議的一部分。

This call includes forward-looking statements concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to uncertainties, risks changes in circumstances and other factors that are difficult to predict additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent form. 8-K risk factors in the annual form 10-K as updated by reports filed with the securities and exchange commission.

本次電話會議包括有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到不確定性、環境變化風險和其他難以預測的因素的影響，有關可能導致實際結果產生重大差異的因素的其他資訊包含在公司的最新形式。年度表格 10-K 中的 8-K 風險因素已根據向證券交易委員會提交的報告進行更新。

This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP.

此電話會議還可能包括不符合美國公認會計原則 (GAAP) 的財務措施。

Additional information concerning these measures including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures is included in the release and posted on our website at John Deeree dotcom forward slash earnings under quarterly earnings and events.

有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比 GAAP 措施的對賬，均包含在新聞稿中，並發佈在我們的網站 John Deeree dotcom 季度收益和事件下的前瞻收益。

I will now turn the call over to Joshua Rohlede.

我現在將把電話轉給約書亞·羅勒德。

Good morning and an early happy holidays to everyone.

早上好，祝大家節日快樂。

Joining us today, John Deeree finished the year with a better than expected fourth quarter that included 13.1% margins for equipment operations full year operating margins came in at 18.2% reflecting solid proactive execution throughout our organization amidst a challenging and rapidly changing environment.

今天加入我們的約翰迪爾公司第四季的業績好於預期，其中設備營運利潤率為13.1%，全年營運利潤率為18.2%，反映出我們整個組織在充滿挑戰和快速變化的環境中積極主動的執行力。

Our ability to generate just over $6.9 billion in operating cash flow from equipment operations at shipment volumes below mid cycle levels is indicative of the structural improvements we've made enabling continued reinvestment in the business and significant cash return to shareholders.

我們能夠在出貨量低於週期中期水平的情況下從設備運營中產生略高於69 億美元的運營現金流，這表明我們已經進行了結構性改進，從而能夠繼續對業務進行再投資，並為股東帶來可觀的現金回報。

Looking ahead to 2025 we expect continued contraction of ag markets globally to result in ag and turf equipment demand at or below trough levels.

展望 2025 年，我們預計全球農業市場的持續收縮將導致農業和草坪設備需求處於或低於谷底水平。

Additionally, construction and forestry market demand is expected to be down as healthy end markets are offset by continued uncertainty in equipment purchases.

此外，由於終端市場的健康狀況被設備採購的持續不確定性所抵消，建築和林業市場的需求預計將下降。

Slide 3 begins with the results for fiscal year 2024 net sales and revenues were down 16% to $51.7 billion.

投影片 3 首先介紹了 2024 財年的淨銷售額和收入下降 16% 至 517 億美元。

While net sales for equipment operations were down 19% to $44.8 billion.

設備業務的淨銷售額下降 19%，至 448 億美元。

That income attributable to deer and company was $7.1 billion or $25.62 per diluted share.

鹿和公司應佔收入為 71 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 25.62 美元。

Next fourth quarter, results are on slide.

接下來的第四季度，業績將會下滑。

Four net sales and revenues were down 28% to $11.1 billion.

四家公司的淨銷售額和收入下降了 28%，至 111 億美元。

While net sales for the equipment operations were down 33% to $9.3 billion.

而設備業務的淨銷售額下降了 33%，至 93 億美元。

That income attributable to deer and company decreased to $1.2 billion or $4.55 per diluted share.

鹿和公司應佔收入減少至 12 億美元，即稀釋後每股 4.55 美元。

Diving into our individual business segments on slide 5, we'll review our fourth quarter results starting with our production and precision ag business net sales of $4.305 billion were down 38% compared to the fourth quarter.

深入研究幻燈片 5 中的各個業務部門，我們將回顧第四季度的業績，首先我們的生產和精密農業業務淨銷售額為 43.05 億美元，與第四季度相比下降了 38%。

Last year, primarily due to lower shipment volumes.

去年，主要是由於出貨量下降。

Price realization in the quarter was flat in line with expectations.

本季的價格實現與預期持平。

Currency translation was negative by about one point operating profit was $657 million.

貨幣換算為負值約 1 個基點，營業利潤為 6.57 億美元。

Resulting in a 15.3% operating margin for the segment.

該部門的營業利益率為 15.3%。

The year over year decrease in operating profit was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and sales mix which was partially offset by lower production costs.

營業利潤年減主要是由於出貨量和銷售組合下降，但部分被生產成本下降所抵銷。

As a reminder, we anticipated tougher year over year comps for PPA in the fourth quarter due to extended factory shutdown days associated with planned under production at several facilities.

提醒一下，我們預計第四季度購電協議的年比比較將更加艱難，因為工廠停產時間延長，多個工廠計劃生產不足。

Turning to small ag and turf on slide, six net sales were down 25% totaling $2.306 billion in the fourth quarter, primarily due to lower shipment volumes.

至於小型農業和草坪業，六家企業第四季淨銷售額下降了 25%，總計 23.06 億美元，這主要是由於出貨量下降。

Although this was partially offset by price realization, price realization in the quarter was positive by approximately 2.5 points.

儘管這部分被價格實現所抵消，但本季的價格實現為正值約 2.5 個百分點。

Currency was also positive by approximately half a point for the quarter.

本季貨幣匯率也上漲了約半個百分點。

Operating profit declined year over year to $234 million resulting in a 10.1% operating margin.

營業利益年減至 2.34 億美元，營業利益率為 10.1%。

The decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and mix along with special non-recurring items.

減少的主要原因是發貨量減少以及特殊非經常性項目的混合。

These items were partially offset by price realization and lower warranty expenses.

這些項目被價格實現和較低的保固費用部分抵消。

Slide.

滑動。

Seven details.

七個細節。

Our fiscal year 2025 AG and turf industry outlook.

我們的 2025 財年 AG 和草坪產業展望。

We expect industry sales of large AG equipment in the US and Canada to decline approximately 30% as demand further moderates amid weak farm fundamentals, high interest rates elevated used inventory levels and short term farmer liquidity liquidity concerns heading into next year's growing season for small ag and turf in the US.

我們預計美國和加拿大大型農業設備的行業銷量將下降約 30%，原因是農業基本面疲軟、高利率提高了二手庫存水平以及進入明年小型農業生長季節的短期農民流動性擔憂，需求進一步放緩。和美國的地盤。

And Canada industry demand is estimated to be down around 10%.

加拿大工業需求預計將下降 10% 左右。

The dairy and livestock segment continues another year of strong profitability as elevated protein and hay prices are further enhanced by low input feed costs.

乳製品和畜牧業繼續保持強勁盈利能力，因為低投入飼料成本進一步推高了蛋白質和乾草價格。

This is offset by restrained demand in the turf and compact utility tractor markets as single family home sales and home improvement spending remains stagnant amid high interest rates in Europe, the industry is projected to be down between five and 10% farm fundamentals in the region continue to deteriorate.

這被草坪和緊湊型拖拉機市場的需求抑制所抵消，因為在歐洲高利率的情況下，單戶住宅銷售和家居裝修支出仍然停滯不前，該行業預計將下降5% 至10%，該地區的農業基本面繼續惡化。

Lingering headwinds include depressed yields from unfavorable weather, reduced regional commodity prices and persistently elevated input costs.

揮之不去的阻力包括不利天氣造成的產量下降、地區大宗商品價格下跌、投入成本持續升高。

Confluence of these issues coupled with high interest rates are expected to keep industry equipment demand at low levels.

這些問題加上高利率預計將使工業設備需求維持在較低水準。

Throughout 2025.

整個2025年。

Within South America, we anticipate industry sales of tractors and combines to be roughly flat as headwinds from 2024 stabilize but persist looking forward to 2025 while crop prices are expected to decline, input costs are also decreasing with yields improving as drought concerns abate coupled with continued soybean acreage expansion.

在南美洲，我們預計拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷售將大致持平，因為2024 年以來的不利因素將趨於穩定，但展望2025 年，農作物價格預計將下降，投入成本也將下降，產量將隨著乾旱擔憂的減弱以及持續的乾旱而提高。

Overall sentiment has improved although this has yet to translate into additional equipment demand.

整體情緒有所改善，儘管這尚未轉化為額外的設備需求。

Additionally, recent appreciation of the US dollar against the brazilian Rei offers further profitability tail winds as to farmers as commodity prices are typically quoted in dollars.

此外，最近美元兌巴西雷伊的升值為農民提供了進一步的盈利利好因素，因為大宗商品價格通常以美元報價。

While many input costs are denominated in R I across the rest of South America.

而南美洲其他地區的許多投入成本均以 R I 計價。

Strong yields are offset by low commodity prices and elevated interest rates.

強勁的收益率被低商品價格和高利率所抵消。

Argentina however, is experiencing some favorable tailwinds as government actions begin to stabilize the currency amid a recovery in the AG industry.

然而，隨著農業產業復甦，政府開始採取行動穩定貨幣，阿根廷正經歷一些有利的順風車。

Finally, industry sales in Asia are projected to be down slightly as foundational technology adoption and improving AG fundamentals in India provide moderate demand tailwinds.

最後，由於印度基礎技術的採用和 AG 基本面的改善提供了溫和的需求推動力，亞洲的行業銷售額預計將略有下降。

Moving to our segment forecast on slide 8, we anticipate production and precision ag net sales to be down approximately 15% in fiscal year 2025.

轉向投影片 8 的細分市場預測，我們預計 2025 財年的產量和精密農業淨銷售額將下降約 15%。

The forecast assumes roughly one point of positive price realization and half a point of negative currency translation segment operating margin forecast for the full fiscal year is between 17% and 18% reflecting strong execution amid tough geographic and product mix.

該預測假設，整個財年的貨幣換算部門營業利潤率預計在17% 至18% 之間，大約為1 個百分點的正價格實現和0.5 個百分點的負值，反映出在艱難的地理和產品組合中的強勁執行力。

Headwinds slide.

逆風下滑。

Nine provides our forecast for the small ag and turf segment.

九號提供了我們對小型農業和草坪領域的預測。

We expect fiscal year '25 net sales to be down around 10%.

我們預計 25 財年淨銷售額將下降 10% 左右。

This includes about half a point of positive price realization as well as half a point of positive currency translation.

這包括大約半個點的正價格實現以及半個點的正貨幣換算。

The segment's operating margin is projected to be between 13% and 14%.

該部門的營業利潤率預計在 13% 至 14% 之間。

Shifting now to construction and forestry on slide. 10 net sales for the quarter were down 29% year over year to $2.664 billion due to lower shipment volumes.

現在轉向幻燈片上的建築和林業。由於出貨量下降，10 該季度的淨銷售額年減 29% 至 26.64 億美元。

Both price realization and currency translation were slightly positive in the quarter by less than half a point operating profit decreased to $328 million resulting in a 12.3% operating margin.

該季度的價格實現和貨幣換算均略有上升，營業利潤下降不到半個百分點，至 3.28 億美元，營業利潤率為 12.3%。

Lower shipment volumes and sales mix were partially offset by lower production costs and proceeds from special non-recurring items.

生產成本和特殊非經常性項目收益的降低部分抵消了出貨量和銷售組合的下降。

Slide 11 outlines our 2025 construction and forestry industry outlook industry sales for earth moving equipment in the US and Canada are expected to be down around 10% while compact construction equipment in the US and Canada is expected to be down 5%.

投影片 11 概述了我們對 2025 年建築和林業行業的展望。

Mixed end markets in 2025 are expected to temper equipment demand across both construction and compact construction equipment.

預計 2025 年混合終端市場將抑制建築和緊湊型建築設備的設備需求。

Modest growth in single family housing starts and us government infrastructure spending will be more than offset by further slowdowns in multi family housing developments still softening nonresidential building investments and muted CapEx spending in oil and gas.

單戶住房開工和美國政府基礎設施支出的溫和增長將被多戶住房開發的進一步放緩所抵消，這仍然會削弱非住宅建築投資以及石油和天然氣資本支出的疲軟。

Additional headwinds from historically low levels of earth moving rental re fleeting and somewhat elevated used inventories will further pressure equipment sales as market uncertainty persists into the start of fiscal 2025.

由於市場不確定性持續到 2025 財年年初，土方租賃轉機水準處於歷史低點以及二手庫存增加帶來的額外阻力將進一步給設備銷售帶來壓力。

Global forestry markets are expected to be flat to down 5% as challenged.

由於面臨挑戰，全球林業市場預計將持平或下降 5%。

Global markets stabilize at low demand levels in 2025 global road building markets are forecasted to be roughly fat as a modest recovery in Europe compensates for modest slowdowns in other geographies.

到 2025 年，全球市場將穩定在低需求水平，預計全球道路建設市場將大致繁榮，因為歐洲的溫和復甦彌補了其他地區的溫和放緩。

Continuing with our C&F segment outlook on slide, 12 2025 net sales are forecasted to be down around 10 and 15%.

繼續我們對 C&F 細分市場的展望，預計 12 2025 年淨銷售額將下降 10% 至 15% 左右。

Our net sales guidance for the year includes about one point of positive price realization and flat currency translation.

我們今年的淨銷售指引包括大約一個點的正價格實現和固定的貨幣換算。

The segment's operating margin is projected to be between 11.5% and 12.5%.

該部門的營業利潤率預計在 11.5% 至 12.5% 之間。

Switching to our financial services operations on slide, 13 worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere and company was $173 million for the fourth quarter.

轉向我們的金融服務業務，13 第四季歸屬於迪爾及其公司的全球金融服務淨利為 1.73 億美元。

The year over year decline was mainly due to a higher provision for credit losses partially offset by income earned on a higher average portfolio balance.

年比下降的主因是信貸損失準備金增加，部分被平均投資組合餘額增加所賺取的收入所抵銷。

The reduction in derivative valuation adjustments and lower S A&G expenses results were also negatively impacted by the increased valuation allowance on assets held for sale of BCO John Deeree for fiscal year 2025.

衍生性商品估值調整的減少和 SA&G 費用的降低也受到 2025 財年 BCO John Deeree 待售資產估值備抵增加的負面影響。

The net income forecast is 750 million.

淨利預測為7.5億。

Results are expected to be higher year over year, primarily due to a lower provision for credit losses partially offset by less favorable financing spreads.

預計業績將年增，主要是由於信貸損失撥備減少，部分被較不有利的融資利差所抵銷。

Additionally, 2024 results were affected by the valuation allowance on assets held for sale of Mark John Deeree slide. 14 concludes with our guidance for net income effective tax rate and operating cash flow for fiscal year 2025.

此外，2024 年業績也受到 Mark John Deeree 幻燈片待售資產估價備抵的影響。 14 最後給出了我們對 2025 財年淨利有效稅率和營運現金流的指引。

Our full year net income forecast is expected to be in the range of five and $5.5 billion highlighting structural improvements over previous cycles.

我們的全年淨利潤預測預計在 50 至 55 億美元之間，突顯了與先前週期相比的結構性改善。

Next, our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate between 23 and 25%.

接下來，我們的指導方針納入了 23% 至 25% 之間的有效稅率。

Lastly, cash flow from equipment operations is projected to be in the range of 4.5 to $5.5 billion.

最後，設備營運產生的現金流預計在 450 至 55 億美元之間。

It is important to emphasize that our implied guidance of around $19 in earnings per share is at sub trough levels with expected sales for fiscal '25 below 80% of mid cycle underscoring our commitment to operational excellence as we focus on proactive management to drive customer value at all points in the business cycle.

需要強調的是，我們每股收益約19 美元的隱含指引處於低谷水平，25 財年的預期銷售額低於週期中期的80%，這突顯了我們對卓越營運的承諾，因為我們專注於主動管理以提升顧客價值在商業週期的所有點上。

This concludes our formal remarks.

我們的正式發言到此結束。

We'll now cover a few key topics before opening the line to Q&A.

在開始問答之前，我們現在將討論幾個關鍵主題。

But before we get into this detail, John, would you like to share your thoughts on the year?

但在我們討論這個細節之前，約翰，您想分享一下您對這一年的想法嗎？

Yeah, thanks, Josh 2024 was characterized by our resiliency in the face of significant challenges.

是的，謝謝，喬希 2024 的特點是我們面對重大挑戰時的韌性。

The pullback we experienced in global markets this year provided our organization with an opportunity to showcase the structural improvements we've made since announcing the smart industrial operating model in 2020.

今年我們在全球市場經歷的回調為我們的組織提供了展示自 2020 年宣布智慧工業營運模式以來我們所取得的結構性改進的機會。

Starting with our financial scorecard, we continued to demonstrate better performance across the cycle.

從我們的財務記分卡開始，我們在整個週期中繼續展現更好的表現。

Notably, our margins in 2024 exceeded 18% reflecting nearly 700 bits of improvement from 2020 which was the last time we were at this point in the cycle.

值得注意的是，我們 2024 年的利潤率超過了 18%，與 2020 年（這是我們最後一次處於週期的這一點）相比提高了近 700 個百分點。

This margin expansion has enabled us to invest record levels back into the business this year, more important than the numbers.

這種利潤率的擴張使我們今年能夠以創紀錄的水平重新投入到業務中，這比數字更重要。

I couldn't be prouder of the resilience demonstrated by our John Deeree employee team.

我對我們的約翰迪爾員工團隊所表現出的韌性感到無比自豪。

This year, the velocity at which markets slowed, tested our discipline and our agility.

今年，市場放緩的速度考驗了我們的紀律和敏捷性。

However, in the face of these difficulties, we emerged more focused than ever on our mission to help our customers do more with less our dedicated teams across factories, engineering centers, dealerships, branches offices and in the field showed remarkable fortitude as we made proactive decisions.

然而，面對這些困難，我們比以往任何時候都更加專注於我們的使命，幫助我們的客戶用更少的資源做更多的事情，我們在工廠、工程中心、經銷商、分支機構和現場的專業團隊在我們積極主動地採取行動時表現出了非凡的毅力。

Based on hard learned lessons from the past, we maintained our focus on the customer ensuring we not only retain but also actively seek out the best talent with the skills and experience necessary to help us solve the significant challenges facing our customers.

基於過去的慘痛教訓，我們繼續以客戶為中心，確保我們不僅保留而且積極尋找具有必要技能和經驗的最佳人才，以幫助我們解決客戶面臨的重大挑戰。

This year also brought about a range of new and exciting solutions as we furthered our progress on many of our leap ambitions including connected machines, engaged acres and autonomous acres.

今年，我們還推出了一系列令人興奮的新解決方案，進一步實現了我們的許多飛躍目標，包括連網機器、參與土地和自治土地。

Our flagship Sense and Act technology, see and spray covered 1 million acres this year alone, reducing herbicide use by an average of nearly 60% this solution and many other similar technologies we've developed have not only have not only positively impacted our customers operations but the environment as well.

我們的旗艦Sense and Act 技術（See and Spray）僅今年就覆蓋了100 萬英畝土地，平均減少了近60% 的除草劑使用量。營運產生了積極影響但環境也是如此。

And we've only begun to scratch the surface.

我們才剛開始觸及表面。

Our employees come to work every day driven by a higher purpose that extends beyond merely solving a problem or completing a task.

我們的員工每天都懷著更高的目標來工作，而不僅僅是解決問題或完成任務。

At the end of the day, we can confidently step back and reflect on the fact that products are making a meaningful difference for our customers and the world.

最終，我們可以自信地退後一步，思考產品正在為我們的客戶和世界帶來有意義的改變。

Thanks John.

謝謝約翰。

I'd like to continue our discussion about the past year before we dive into 25.

在我們深入討論 25 年前，我想繼續討論過去的一年。

This past fiscal year clearly represented a very dynamic market characterized by significant demand declines following peak levels in 23.

上一財年顯然代表了一個非常活躍的市場，其特點是需求在 23 年達到高峰後大幅下降。

Nevertheless, as you noted, John, we ended the year with over 7 billion in net income.

儘管如此，約翰，正如您所指出的，我們年底的淨利潤超過 70 億美元。

Joe, can you provide a breakdown of what happened during the quarter and throughout the fiscal year?

喬，您能否詳細說明本季和整個財年發生的情況？

Yeah, happy to Josh and it's best to start off with the quarter which came in better than expected.

是的，喬許很高興，最好從比預期更好的季度開始。

We targeted field inventory reductions by pulling back production and shipping at our factories across the globe.

我們透過減少全球工廠的生產和運輸來減少現場庫存。

Large ag retail sales of new equipment generally came in line came in as expected across most geographies and product lines especially in North America.

大多數地區和產品線（尤其是北美）的大型農業新設備零售額總體上符合預期。

As a result, field inventory of new equipment, particularly North American tractors and combines ended the year at extremely low levels on both an absolute and inventory to sales basis.

因此，新設備（特別是北美拖拉機和聯合收割機）的現場庫存在絕對數量和庫存與銷售基礎上均處於極低水準。

We manage this under production while controlling costs delivering year over year improvements in production costs and S A&G and R&D.

我們在生產過程中管理這一點，同時控製成本，實現生產成本以及 S A&G 和研發的逐年改善。

Additionally, we successfully reduced in process inventory levels which drove much of the cash flow outperformance relative to our third quarter guide turning to the full year.

此外，我們成功降低了流程庫存水平，這在很大程度上推動了現金流量的表現優於我們的第三季指南轉向全年。

John previously highlighted that our performance was marked by resiliency in the face of challenging market conditions which necessitated tough operational decisions that required significant flexibility and adaptability from everyone.

約翰先前強調，面對充滿挑戰的市場條件，我們的業績表現出彈性，這需要我們做出艱難的營運決策，而這需要每個人都具有極大的靈活性和適應性。

Our employees, dealers and suppliers.

我們的員工、經銷商和供應商。

As a result, we successfully managed operations to lower levels of demand.

結果，我們成功地管理了營運以降低需求水準。

This year, production costs for the full year came infavorable.

今年全年生產成本不利。

Primarily due to year over year improvements in material and freight costs across all business segments.

主要是由於所有業務部門的材料和貨運成本逐年改善。

Despite muted sales, we remained disciplined and committed to our investments in the business, maintaining record levels of R&D spending.

儘管銷售疲軟，我們仍保持紀律並致力於業務投資，保持研發支出的創紀錄水準。

We recognize that many of the new product introductions this year stemmed from investments that we made throughout the previous cycle and we will continue to prioritize these value, creating investments moving forward overall, the decisive actions we took this year resulted in a solid finish.

我們認識到，今年推出的許多新產品都源於我們在上一個週期中所做的投資，我們將繼續優先考慮這些價值，創造整體向前推進的投資，我們今年採取的果斷行動取得了堅實的成果。

We closed fiscal year 2024 delivering strong returns while successfully reducing new field inventory levels, ultimately positioning the business to effectively execute what are expected to be challenging market conditions in 2025.

我們在 2024 財年結束時實現了強勁的回報，同時成功降低了新的現場庫存水平，最終使業務能夠有效應對 2025 年預計將面臨的充滿挑戰的市場條件。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬許。

That's a great color on 24.

24號這個顏色真好看。

Let's pivot directions now and discuss our fiscal 2025 outlook for AG and turf with commodity prices down will be partially offset by bumper crops across the US.

現在讓我們調整方向，討論 2025 財年 AG 和草坪的前景，大宗商品價格的下跌將被美國各地的豐收所部分抵消。

Farmer margins have been compressed.

農民的利潤被壓縮。

Our guide implies a challenging year for farmers in 2025.

我們的指南暗示 2025 年對農民來說是充滿挑戰的一年。

Josh, could you help us unpack what we're seeing here and what to expect by segment and geography?

喬希，你能幫我們解開我們在這裡看到的內容以及按細分市場和地理位置劃分的預期嗎？

Sure, it's definitely going to be another dynamic year across the AG industry.

當然，這肯定會是整個 AG 行業又一個充滿活力的一年。

Let's start with large ag in North America, we expect farm fundamentals to remain depressed globally in 2025 putting additional pressure on farm profitability given the strong yields from us.

讓我們從北美的大型農業開始，我們預計 2025 年全球農場基本面仍將低迷，鑑於我們的強勁產量，這將給農場盈利能力帶來額外壓力。

Harvest.

收成。

This past year, we've seen a rebuilding of global stocks with the USDA forecasting global stocks to reach the fourth highest level on record anticipated record production in South America, particularly in Brazil and Argentina is likely to further pressure global commodity prices in 2025.

去年，我們看到全球庫存出現重建，美國農業部預測全球庫存將達到創紀錄的第四高水平，南美洲（尤其是巴西和阿根廷）的預期產量將在 2025 年進一步承壓全球大宗商品價格。

And with input costs relatively flat year over year, farm net incomes will remain compressed globally.

由於投入成本較去年同期相對持平，全球農場淨收入將持續受到壓縮。

Conversely, dairy and livestock margins remain elevated, supported by significantly lower input feed costs and positive market demand.

相反，在投入飼料成本顯著降低和積極的市場需求的支撐下，乳製品和牲畜利潤率仍然較高。

However, machinery demand for this segment has lagged the margin gains and positive sentiment as interest rates and slow herd expansion continue to be the primary headwinds broadly across the AG sector.

然而，由於利率和畜群擴張緩慢仍然是整個農業領域的主要阻力，該領域的機械需求落後於利潤率成長和正面情緒。

And despite significant macro headwinds, farm balance sheets remain strong with land values supporting healthy debt to equity ratios.

儘管存在重大宏觀阻力，農場資產負債表仍然強勁，土地價值支撐著健康的債務股本比率。

That said as cash receipts have slowed and credit conditions in the industry have tightened.

儘管如此，隨著現金收入放緩和行業信貸狀況收緊。

Many growers are keeping a greater focus on the liquidity of their operations.

許多種植者更加關注其營運的流動性。

As we look at the impact on equipment sales in the coming year, it's important to highlight the varying dynamics across each of our primary regions.

當我們審視來年對設備銷售的影響時，重要的是要強調我們每個主要地區的不同動態。

As a reminder, our goal for 2024 was to underproduce global large AG retail by a high single digit in North American large ag.

提醒一下，我們 2024 年的目標是讓北美大型農業零售業的全球大型農業生產不足個位數。

We successfully achieved our under production goals for the fourth quarter reaching targeted inventory levels on most of our key products.

我們成功實現了第四季度的生產不足目標，大多數主要產品達到了目標庫存水準。

For example, new combine inventory was down mid 10s year over year on a unit basis and finished the year at 4% inventory to sales in line with 2023 year end levels and 220 horsepower and above large tractors, we reduce field inventory by nearly 50% year over year resulting in a year end inventory sales ratio of 10% a 500 basis point reduction year over year in the last 10 years, inventory to sales ratios for 220 horsepower tractors per deer have only been this low twice in April 2014 just prior to the last down cycle and in January 2022 due to post pandemic supply constraints, given the inventory reductions we've achieved, we expect to produce in line with retail demand in North America in 2025 we're encouraged by the progress we've made on this front, particularly as in industry inventory to sales ratios for new equipment are more than double deer ratios for both 100 horsepower and above tractors and combines.

例如，新聯合收割機庫存按單位計算同比下降了 10 %左右，年底庫存與銷售比為 4%，與 2023 年年底水準一致，對於 220 馬力及以上大型拖拉機，我們將現場庫存減少了近 50%導致年末庫存銷售比率為10% 過去10 年同比減少500 個基點，每頭鹿220 馬力拖拉機的庫存銷售比率僅在2014 年4 月之前出現過兩次如此低的情況上一個下行週期和2022 年1月，由於大流行後的供應限制，考慮到我們已經實現的庫存減少，我們預計2025 年的產量將符合北美的零售需求，我們對我們所取得的進展感到鼓舞在這方面，特別是在行業中，新設備的庫存與銷售比率是100 匹馬力及以上拖拉機和聯合收割機的兩倍以上。

Despite our proactive inventory management, macro factors continue to be a headwind for equipment demand in 2025 resulting in subdued early order.

儘管我們採取了積極的庫存管理措施，但宏觀因素仍然是 2025 年設備需求的阻力，導致早期訂單減少。

Program results as a reminder during our last earnings call in August, we were partway through the early order programs for sprayers and planters in North America and our combine early order program had just begun as an update.

計劃結果提醒我們在八月份的最後一次財報電話會議上，我們北美噴霧機和播種機的早期訂購計劃已進行到一半，而我們的聯合收割機早期訂購計劃剛剛作為更新開始。

Our sprayer program concluded down from 2024 declining in line with our industry guide for North American large ag and setting 2025 production levels for sprayers below mid cycle planters.

我們的噴霧機計畫從 2024 年開始下降，符合我們的北美大型農業產業指南，並將 2025 年噴霧機的生產水準設定為低於中週期播種機。

On the other hand, experienced a more significant decline, closing with a year over year reduction, greater than what we saw in sprayers finally combines will complete the second of three early order program phases next week.

另一方面，經歷了更顯著的下降，最終同比下降，比我們在噴霧機中看到的下降還要大，最終聯合收割機將於下週完成三個早期訂單計劃階段中的第二個階段。

And when this program closes at the end of January, we expect the product line to be down in a range similar to the reduction we've seen in Sprayers.

當該計劃在 1 月底結束時，我們預計產品線的下降幅度類似於我們在噴霧器中看到的下降幅度。

North American tractors are managed on a rolling order basis with row crop tractor order books full through the middle of the second quarter.

北美拖拉機採用滾動訂單管理，中耕作物拖拉機訂單簿在第二季中期已滿。

Demand for row crop tractors in 2025 is expected to be down less than the overall industry forecast with beer shipments decreasing even less as production levels rebound to align with retail demand following our high single digit underproduction for row crop tractors in 2024.

預計2025 年中耕作物拖拉機產量大幅下降，生產水準的下降幅度將小於整個產業預測，其中，隨著2024 年中耕作物拖拉機產量大幅下降，生產水準將反彈，與零售需求保持一致，啤酒出貨量的下降幅度甚至更小。

Conversely, demand for four wheel drive tractors in 2025 is expected to decline year over year more than the industry guide.

相反，預計 2025 年四輪驅動拖拉機的需求年減幅度將超過產業指引。

But as a reminder that product line actually saw increased demand in 2024.

但提醒一下，2024 年該產品線的需求實際上有所增加。

It's worth noting here that our order books for our newest tractor, the high horsepower nine Rx which we introduced last February at Commodity Classic are currently full through the middle of the fourth quarter underscoring the value that we're bringing to the market and the importance of contingent investment in our core product lines.

值得注意的是，我們去年 2 月在 Commodity Classic 上推出的最新拖拉機、高馬力 9 Rx 的訂單目前到第四季度中期已滿，這突顯了我們為市場帶來的價值和重要性對我們核心產品線的或有投資。

Josh, this is Corey.

喬什，這是科里。

I'd like to jump in here to highlight the efforts of our Canadian team and customers.

我想在此強調一下我們加拿大團隊和客戶的努力。

We've seen significant competitive conversions in this market post our smart industrial redesign which is focused on supporting the production steps that our customers take over the course of a year in their specific crop types and the geography in Canada, the majority of broad acre farming occurs in the western half of the country.

在我們的智慧工業重新設計後，我們已經看到這個市場發生了顯著的競爭轉變，重新設計的重點是支持我們的客戶在一年內針對其特定作物類型和加拿大地理（大多數是大面積農業）採取的生產步驟發生在該國的西半部。

This primary production system is small grains which is wheat, canola and barley and the operations tend to be large scale.

此主要生產系統為小穀物，即小麥、油菜和大麥，且營運規模往往較大。

Many of the new product introductions over the past few years have been tailor made for solving our Canadian small grains.

過去幾年推出的許多新產品都是為了解決我們加拿大的小顆粒問題而量身定制的。

Customers toughest challenges in doing so at the system level from X nine combines to high horsepower nine Rx tractors to our C series air carts coupled with our integrated technology solutions in the John Deeree Operations Center, these customers are experiencing significant increases in productivity and profitability and in quality of life.

客戶在系統層面面臨最嚴峻的挑戰，從X 9 聯合收割機到大馬力9 Rx 拖拉機，再到我們的C 系列空氣推車，再加上我們在約翰迪爾運營中心的整合技術解決方案，這些客戶正在經歷生產力和盈利能力的顯著提高，在生活品質方面。

And finally, when you layer in a dealer network that's committed to investing in their customers and ensuring they get the most out of their deer equipment while delivering uptime and reliability, the result is exceptional system level value for our canadian customers.

最後，當您加入致力於投資客戶並確保他們充分利用鹿設備的同時提供正常運行時間和可靠性的經銷商網路時，將為我們的加拿大客戶帶來卓越的系統級價值。

Thanks for that call out Corey.

感謝您對科里的稱呼。

Clearly a great story with our team up there that should continue into the next year.

顯然，我們團隊的精彩故事應該會持續到明年。

And Josh, thanks for the update on eops in the North American market.

喬希（Josh），感謝您提供有關北美市場 eops 的最新資訊。

Now, can you walk us through what's happening in South America and maybe more specifically Brazil?

現在，您能向我們介紹一下南美洲，尤其是巴西正在發生的事情嗎？

Of course, as you recall, Brazil represented our largest targeted under production in 2024 as we work to correct excess new field inventory resulting from the market slowdown.

當然，正如您所記得的那樣，巴西是我們 2024 年最大的生產目標，因為我們正在努力糾正因市場放緩而導致的新油田庫存過剩。

At the end of 2023 our factory and marketing teams in the region worked diligently over the last year to adjust production and shipping in the midst of a dynamic retail sales environment.

2023 年底，我們在該地區的工廠和行銷團隊在過去的一年裡辛勤工作，在充滿活力的零售環境中調整生產和運輸。

As a result, we've driven significant reductions in new field inventory units and have reached targeted levels for most product lines enabling us to produce in line with retail demand in 2025 across most equipment categories.

因此，我們大幅減少了新的現場庫存單位，並達到了大多數產品線的目標水平，使我們能夠在 2025 年根據大多數設備類別的零售需求進行生產。

Given our flat guide for industry retails in 2025.

鑑於我們對 2025 年工業零售業的統一指南。

And the significant underproduction to retail in 2024 producing in line with retail in 2025 will represent a double digit increase in their shipments year over year in the region.

2024 年零售產量顯著不足，而 2025 年零售產量將與該地區的出貨量較去年同期出現兩位數成長。

The one project where we still have some work to do is combine where inventories remain elevated following slightly weaker than anticipated retail sales in the fourth quarter.

我們仍有一些工作要做的一個項目是合併，在第四季度零售額略弱於預期之後，庫存仍然很高。

As a result, we're planning another year of under production for combines in Brazil in 2025.

因此，我們計劃 2025 年巴西聯合收割機又將停產一年。

Although to a much lesser extent and with the majority of the inventory drawdown occurring in the first half.

儘管程度要小得多，而且大部分庫存減少發生在上半年。

Of the year.

當年的。

Hey, this is Jeff and I wanted to take a moment to express how proud we are of our South American team and the exceptional work they've done to efficiently and resourcefully right size inventory levels while maintaining strong operating margins.

嘿，我是傑夫，我想花點時間表達我們對我們的南美團隊以及他們在高效、足智多謀地調整庫存水平同時保持強勁營業利潤方面所做的出色工作感到多麼自豪。

Our optimism in the region's prospects remains strong, demonstrated by our continued local investments focused on developing solutions in the region for the region.

我們對該地區的前景仍然抱有強烈的樂觀態度，這一點從我們持續的本地投資、專注於為該地區開發解決方案可見一斑。

A great example is our investment in Brazil in our new R&D center in Iata which will be open in December.

一個很好的例子是我們在巴西 IATA 投資的新研發中心，該中心將於 12 月開幕。

The center will focus on developing the products.

該中心將專注於開發產品。

Our Brazilian customers need to tackle challenges specific to tropical agriculture.

我們的巴西客戶需要應對熱帶農業特有的挑戰。

That's great, Josh.

太好了，喬許。

Now let's finish it out with Europe.

現在讓我們以歐洲來結束這一切。

What are the dynamics over there?

那邊的動態如何？

2024 was a tough year for the region.

2024 年對該地區來說是艱難的一年。

We really saw a perfect storm of factors, depressed commodity prices, lower yields, regional conflicts and frustration with AG policy that ultimately drove a retail sales decline much greater than normal for a market that is traditionally less volatile than North and South America.

我們確實看到了一場完美的因素風暴，大宗商品價格低迷、收益率下降、地區衝突以及對AG 政策的不滿，最終導致零售額下降幅度遠大於傳統上波動性低於北美和南美的市場的正常水平。

We expect this atypical trend to continue in 2025 with another year of declines as uncertainty interest rates, pressure on cash crop receipts and elevated field inventory levels weigh on equipment demand to illustrate this challenge.

我們預計這種非典型趨勢將在 2025 年持續，由於利率的不確定性、經濟作物收入的壓力以及田間庫存水準的上升對設備需求造成壓力，又將出現下降一年，以說明這項挑戰。

Harvest yields.

收穫豐收。

In France, the largest grain producer in Western Europe came in this fall at multi decade.

在法國，西歐最大的糧食生產國今年秋天已進入數十年。

Lows placing significant strain on many growers in that region similar to other regions.

與其他地區類似，低氣壓給該地區的許多種植者帶來了巨大壓力。

We had success in reducing the new field inventory units in Europe in 2024 driving levels down over 4/20 percent from the start of the year.

2024 年，我們成功減少了歐洲的新現場庫存單位，使水準較年初下降了 4/20% 以上。

However, due to the ongoing and greater than expected declines in retail demand, our field inventory targets have continued to adjust downward in line with the market softening.

然而，由於零售需求持續下降且超出預期，我們的現場庫存目標隨著市場疲軟而持續下調。

We finished 2024 with inventory to sales ratios for both midsized tractors and combines at or slightly above the upper end of our targeted bands which we feel necessitates further under production in those product lines.

到 2024 年，我們的中型拖拉機和組合產品的庫存與銷售比率均達到或略高於我們目標範圍的上限，我們認為有必要進一步減少這些產品線的生產。

In 2025 order books in the region remain healthy with orders from Mannheim tractors extending into the second quarter of the year.

2025 年，該地區的訂單保持健康，曼海姆拖拉機的訂單將延續到今年第二季。

One additional point to highlight for the egg outlook broadly is that our implied 2025 detrimentals are impacted by product and geographic mix.

對於雞蛋前景，需要強調的另一點是，我們隱含的 2025 年不利因素受到產品和地理組合的影響。

As North American large egg equipment like combines and row crop tractors experience larger reductions compared to the rest of the world.

與世界其他地區相比，北美聯合收割機和中耕作物拖拉機等大型雞蛋設備的減少幅度更大。

This is particularly noteworthy in the first quarter, given the year over year comparison to strong North American large egg sales in the first quarter of 2024.

考慮到與 2024 年第一季北美大雞蛋銷售強勁的同比情況相比，這一點在第一季尤其值得注意。

Now, when we think about the first quarter of 2025 we expect top line sales for the equipment operations to be down 15 to 20%.

現在，當我們考慮 2025 年第一季時，我們預計設備業務的營收將下降 15% 至 20%。

Sequentially from four Q24 with margins 300 to 400 basis points lower than the full year guide.

從 2024 年第四季開始，利潤率比全年指引低 300 至 400 個基點。

Additionally, we are forecasting production costs to be favorable again in 2025 for the equipment operations driven primarily by improved material costs and lower overhead expenses.

此外，我們預計 2025 年設備營運的生產成本將再次有利，這主要是由於材料成本的改善和管理費用的降低。

All despite significant volume reductions overall, we expect to see positive price costs for the full fiscal year.

儘管整體銷售量大幅減少，但我們預計整個財年的價格成本將呈正值。

Yet another example of the structural improvements our teams continue to deliver.

這是我們團隊持續進行的結構性改進的另一個例子。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬許。

That's a great walk around the world as well as good additional insight into where we're projecting production costs for 2025.

這是一次很棒的環遊世界之旅，也讓我們對 2025 年生產成本的預測有了進一步的了解。

Now, we've talked extensively about 2025 order books and new inventories, but a significant concern heading into next year is North American used inventories last quarter, we discussed the levers we were pulling to return to long term averages.

現在，我們已經廣泛討論了 2025 年訂單和新庫存，但進入明年的一個重大問題是上季度北美二手庫存，我們討論了我們為恢復長期平均水平而採取的槓桿措施。

Corey.

科里.

This next question for you.

下一個問題是給你的。

Can you give us an update on where we stand in North America and what steps we're taking to manage these inventory levels?

您能否向我們介紹我們在北美的最新情況以及我們正在採取哪些措施來管理這些庫存水準？

Yeah.

是的。

Sure, Josh, as you just heard, our team has done an excellent job proactively managing new inventories and we're seeing the benefits of those decisions play out in 2025.

當然，喬什，正如您剛剛聽到的，我們的團隊在主動管理新庫存方面做得非常出色，我們將看到這些決策的好處將在 2025 年發揮出來。

But as you noted, our primary fo focus over the last few quarters and now heading into the new fiscal year is to diligently work to bring down use level, especially late model harvesting equipment and row crop tractors.

但正如您所指出的，我們在過去幾個季度和現在進入新財年的主要重點是努力降低使用水平，特別是新型收割設備和中耕作物拖拉機。

Broadly speaking, we're seeing used inventory to new sales ratio starting to plateau just above the long term average while it's too early to call an inflection point on used equipment.

從廣義上講，我們看到二手庫存與新銷售的比率開始穩定在略高於長期平均水平的水平，而現在稱二手設備出現拐點還為時過早。

We are encouraged by the slowdown in growth that we saw during the fourth quarter as we look at used inventory by model year.

當我們按車型年份查看二手庫存時，第四季度的成長放緩令我們感到鼓舞。

We're seeing a similar phenomenon in both row crop tractors and combines.

我們在中耕作物拖拉機和聯合收割機中都看到了類似的現象。

When compared to long term average distributions, the current mix of used is heavier than normal in 1 to 2 year old equipment and correspondingly lighter in model year 19 to 21 equipment.

與長期平均分佈相比，目前使用的 1 至 2 年舊設備的混合比正常情況重，而 19 至 21 年型號設備的使用比例相應較輕。

This correlates closely to a trade ladder in which second owners who typically buy late model equipment every 3 to 5 years will be looking to come back into the market for the first time since pre inflationary pricing and significant interest rate increases.

這與貿易階梯密切相關，在貿易階梯中，通常每 3 至 5 年購買新型設備的第二所有者將尋求自通膨前定價和利率大幅上漲以來首次重返市場。

This backdrop along with compression and farm net incomes is putting pressure on trade differentials and is slowed in this part of the trade ladder.

這種背景加上壓縮和農業淨收入正在給貿易差異帶來壓力，並在貿易階梯的這一部分放緩。

As a result, we're hyper focused on helping these farmers transition to this next generation of equipment which is needed based on today's even tighter harvesting windows and transition to precision applications like high speed planning.

因此，我們非常專注於幫助這些農民過渡到下一代設備，這是基於當今更嚴格的收割窗口和過渡到高速規劃等精確應用程式所需要的。

In turn, this will help to use market return to a more normal distribution mix by vintage of machine.

反過來，這將有助於利用機器年份的市場回報來實現更正態的分配組合。

Our approach to reducing used inventories is three pronged.

我們減少二手庫存的方法是三管齊下。

First and foremost, we've managed new inventory levels to ensure we don't flood the market as equipment demand moderates.

首先也是最重要的是，我們管理了新的庫存水平，以確保我們不會因設備需求放緩而充斥市場。

Second, we're working closely with our dealers to drive targeted programs and engagement with each customer to understand their needs and what's most impactful to their bottom line.

其次，我們正在與經銷商密切合作，推動有針對性的計劃並與每位客戶互動，以了解他們的需求以及對他們的利潤影響最大的因素。

One example of the changes we made in 2024.

我們在 2024 年所做的改變的一個例子。

As a result of this engagement is the offering of new financing programs which have been greatly appreciated by both our customers and the dealers supporting them.

此次合作的結果是提供了新的融資計劃，這些計劃受到了我們的客戶和支持他們的經銷商的高度讚賞。

Finally, we're further elevating pool fund contributions to ensure dealers have the necessary funds to drive used sales.

最後，我們將進一步提高資金池捐款，以確保經銷商擁有必要的資金來推動二手銷售。

Stepping back.

退後一步。

Despite the software and markets, our dealers remain healthy.

儘管有軟體和市場，我們的經銷商仍然保持健康。

They're not only focused on managing used inventories in the near term but are also committed to continuing to invest in our technology journey.

他們不僅專注於短期內管理二手庫存，而且還致力於繼續投資我們的技術之旅。

At the end of the day, our dealers are focused on one goal consistently delivering greater value to our customers.

歸根結底，我們的經銷商專注於一個目標，不斷為我們的客戶提供更大的價值。

Corey, I wanted to add a comment on the current state of our dealer network.

科里，我想對我們經銷商網路的現狀發表評論。

Our dealers are in a structurally better position today versus previous cycles as we continue to work in close partnership with them to stay ahead of inventory demand changes.

與之前的周期相比，我們的經銷商今天在結構上處於更好的位置，因為我們繼續與他們密切合作，以保持領先於庫存需求變化。

We recognize that we wouldn't have made the progress that we've seen in the field inventory without the execution of our dealers they have and continue to invest in specialized capabilities while remaining strongly capitalized this strength and our aligned purpose, enhance the level of service and support that our customers receive, which remains our primary goal.

我們認識到，如果沒有經銷商的執行力，我們就不可能在現場庫存方面取得如此進展，因此我們將繼續投資於專業能力，同時保持強大的資本化優勢和我們一致的目標，提高我們的客戶獲得的服務和支援仍然是我們的首要目標。

Thanks, Corey and John.

謝謝，科里和約翰。

That's a great perspective.

這是一個很棒的觀點。

Let's shift now to construction and forestry. 2024 was a dynamic year and really a story of two halves starting with solid stable demand in the first two quarters, consistent with the strong levels that we saw in 23 the second half, however, gave way to softening retails and tougher competition which ultimately pressured margins as we proactively shifted to underproducing retail demand in the Earth Moving segment in the fourth quarter, Josh Bill, can you walk us through?

現在讓我們轉向建築和林業。 2024 年是充滿活力的一年，實際上是一個分為兩半的故事，前兩個季度需求穩定，與我們在下半年看到的強勁水平一致，但零售疲軟和競爭加劇最終給我們帶來了壓力第四季度，我們主動轉向土方運輸領域零售需求不足的情況，從而提高了利潤率，喬許·比爾（Josh Bill），您能給我們介紹一下嗎？

What happened and how this will impact 2025?

發生了什麼以及這將如何影響 2025 年？

Yeah, definitely.

是的，絕對是。

As you noted, we saw ongoing strength in retail demand for Earth moving equipment in the first half of 2024.

正如您所指出的，我們看到 2024 年上半年土方設備的零售需求持續強勁。

But that shifted to a softening market in both our 3rd and 4th quarters.

但在第三季和第四季，市場都轉為疲軟。

We're seeing that trend continue this next year and as reflected in our industry guides for both construction and compact construction, we expect further softening in 2025 construction work is so robust and government infrastructure spending associated with the IIJ A is still less than 50% awarded.

我們看到這種趨勢明年將繼續，正如我們的建築和緊湊型建築行業指南所反映的那樣，我們預計 2025 年建築工作將進一步疲軟，且與 IIJ A 相關的政府基礎設施支出仍低於 50%授予。

Our customers continue to see a strong backlog of work albeit alongside stiffer competition which is driving down bids and overall project margins compounded by elevated interest rates and a recently refleeted rental industry.

我們的客戶繼續看到大量積壓的工作，儘管競爭更加激烈，導致投標和整體項目利潤率下降，再加上利率上升和最近租賃行業的復甦，雪上加霜。

There's less near term appetite for new equipment purchases.

近期購買新設備的興趣減弱。

Despite these pressures, it's worth reiterating that we continue to see a robust utilization of equipment in the field.

儘管面臨這些壓力，但值得重申的是，我們仍然看到現場設備的強勁利用。

Josh Roer earlier, you mentioned our decision to underproduce Earth moving retail demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 which successfully drove down field inventories over the past three months.

Josh Roer 早些時候，您提到我們決定在 2024 年第四季抑制土方零售需求，這在過去三個月成功降低了現場庫存。

Given the additional softening in retail demand that We're anticipating in 2025.

鑑於我們預計 2025 年零售需求將進一步疲軟。

We've made the decision to continue to underproduce retail in the first half of next year to ensure inventory levels are appropriately sized, to respond to demand changes in the back half of 2025.

我們決定在明年上半年繼續減少零售產量，以確保庫存水準適當，以應對 2025 年下半年的需求變化。

In fact, much like large ag this past quarter, Earth moving lines at our North American factories will be shut down for approximately half of the total production days in the first quarter of the year.

事實上，就像上個季度的大型農業一樣，我們北美工廠的土方輸送線將關閉今年第一季總生產天數的約一半。

This will have a material impact on our quarterly detrimental margins as well as overall profitability for the segment in the quarter.

這將對我們的季度利潤率以及該季度該部門的整體盈利能力產生重大影響。

Given the steady outlook for road building combined with demand and global forestry being flat to down 5%.

鑑於道路建設前景穩定，加上需求和全球林業持平至下降 5%。

We expect these product lines to provide stability to our overall construction and forestry segment.

我們預計這些產品線將為我們的整個建築和林業部門提供穩定性。

This is Josh, maybe just to summarize here, we feel good about our CNF business.

我是 Josh，也許只是在這裡總結一下，我們對 CNF 業務感覺良好。

However, we're being proactive learning lessons from previous cycles as well as our AG business.

然而，我們正在積極吸取之前週期以及 AG 業務的經驗教訓。

It's important to note that even with this under production, we're weathering the demand reduction in the competitive environment better than we have in the past.

值得注意的是，即使該產品仍在生產中，我們也比過去更好地應對了競爭環境中需求減少的情況。

This is a testament to the efforts of our team to drive structural improvements alongside differentiated customer value as we continue to concentrate our investments in margin of creative opportunities.

這證明了我們的團隊在推動結構改進和差異化客戶價值方面所做的努力，因為我們繼續將投資集中在創意機會的利潤上。

Yeah, that's great insight into what appears to be a dynamic market right now, Josh, given the tougher, tougher competition and uncertainty surrounding long term and market demand, our production should put us in the best position to generate strong returns in the back half of the year.

是的，這對目前看來充滿活力的市場有很好的洞察力，喬什，考慮到越來越激烈的競爭以及圍繞長期和市場需求的不確定性，我們的生產應該使我們處於最佳位置，以便在後半段產生強勁的回報今年的。

Now, for our last talk topic, I'd like to focus on our technology progress.

現在，對於我們的最後一個主題，我想重點談談我們的技術進步。

Josh and Corey, there have been quite a few new product releases and milestones achieved over the last 12 months.

Josh 和 Corey，過去 12 個月發布了許多新產品並實現了里程碑。

Could you walk us through some of those key highlights and what it means for the business going forward?

您能否向我們介紹一些關鍵亮點以及它們對未來業務的意義？

Sure, I can start. 24 represented a year of significant new product introductions and technological advancements available on our model year 25 equipment.

當然，我可以開始了。 24 年是我們的 25 型號設備推出重大新產品和技術進步的一年。

These releases ranging from our most powerful tractor ever designed to new seating equipment.

這些發布的範圍從我們有史以來設計的最強大的拖拉機到新的座椅設備。

To the most advanced Harve harvesting technology to date are a testament to the success we've seen in our production systems approach.

迄今為止最先進的 Harve 收割技術證明了我們在生產系統方法中所取得的成功。

At the top end of our tech stack, we're seeing record adoption of some of our most advanced features.

在我們技術堆疊的頂端，我們看到一些最先進功能的採用創紀錄。

For example, over 75% of combined eop orders have opted for our highest level of harvest settings, automation because of the immediate value this technology will bring to their operations.

例如，超過 75% 的聯合 EOP 訂單選擇了我們最高水準的收穫設定和自動化，因為這項技術將為他們的營運帶來直接價值。

In fact, we expect our customers will experience up to 20% boost on average in harvest productivity.

事實上，我們預期客戶的收穫生產力將平均提高 20%。

From this feature alone.

僅從這個特點來看。

Another great example would be large egg equipment in Brazil.

另一個很好的例子是巴西的大型雞蛋設備。

We brought our new inventory levels down to target over the course of the year while managing to both maintain and grow market share.

我們在這一年中將新的庫存水準降低到了目標，同時設法維持和擴大市場份額。

And this means that we not only grow the share of acres covered by equipment, but also the number of acres connected to our John Deeree Operations Center, which ultimately means more productive, more profitable farmers.

這意味著我們不僅增加了設備覆蓋的英畝數，還增加了與約翰迪爾營運中心相連的英畝數，最終意味著農民的生產力更高、利潤更高。

Yeah, that's right.

是的，沒錯。

Corey.

科里.

And, and to put that statistic in perspective, we saw our global engaged acres grow by nearly 20% this past year reaching 455 million acres.

而且，從統計數據來看，去年我們的全球參與面積成長了近 20%，達到 4.55 億英畝。

With South America up nearly 30% and growth in highly engaged acres, which currently make up over 25% of our total engaged Acres is outpacing the overall growth trend in engaged acres.

南美洲成長了近 30%，且高度參與面積的成長（目前占我們總參與面積的 25% 以上）超過了參與面積的整體成長趨勢。

As we see deeper and broader utilization global year.

隨著我們在全球範圍內看到更深入、更廣泛的利用。

Over year growth in highly engaged acres is over 30% with South America notably up nearly 50%.

高度參與的土地面積較去年同期成長超過 30%，其中南美洲的成長幅度尤其接近 50%。

And while you noted that the adoption of some of our latest technologies has exceeded expectations, we're also continuing to see significant growth in adoption of some of our more established solutions during this downturn.

雖然您注意到我們一些最新技術的採用超出了預期，但在這次經濟低迷時期，我們也繼續看到一些更成熟的解決方案的採用顯著增長。

As farmers seek ways to enhance productivity and improve margins.

當農民尋求提高生產力和提高利潤的方法。

For example, the adoption of exact applied technology on model year 25 sprayers increased by over over 10% year over year reaching a nearly 7 80% take rate in this year's early order program on see and spray.

例如，25 型噴霧機採用精確應用技術的比例年增超過 10%，在今年的 See and Spray 早期訂單計畫中達到近 7% 80% 的採用率。

As John mentioned, we've covered over 1 million acres in 2024 with just a few 100 units in the field for 2025 across both factory installed options and retrofit precision upgrades.

正如 John 所提到的，到 2024 年，我們已覆蓋超過 100 萬英畝的土地，到 2025 年，我們在現場僅部署了 100 個單元，包括工廠安裝選項和改造精度升級。

We have currently taken over 1,000 orders for new sea and spray premium and ultimate units.

目前，我們已收到 1,000 多個新的 Sea and Spray 高級和終極設備訂單。

As a result, we expect to see a significant increase in the number of acres covered by sea and spray technology in the 2025 season.

因此，我們預計 2025 年海洋和噴霧技術覆蓋的英畝數將顯著增加。

Exactly when you have technology that you know is going to save money for your customers, you want to get that solution in their equipment as quickly as possible.

當您知道自己擁有可以為客戶節省資金的技術時，您希望盡快在他們的設備中獲得該解決方案。

We recognize this is a revolutionary technology that requires our customers to invest time and effort to transform their crop care programs.

我們認識到這是一項革命性的技術，需要我們的客戶投入時間和精力來改變他們的作物護理計劃。

But we also know, but typically when we have a customer see it work in their field or in their operation, they see the value.

但我們也知道，通常當我們的客戶看到它在他們的領域或他們的營運中發揮作用時，他們就會看到價值。

Our goal is to enable more customers to experience the impact of our C and spray technology by leveraging a different business model to unlock that value, which is more crucial than ever in the current macro environment.

我們的目標是透過利用不同的商業模式來釋放該價值，讓更多客戶體驗我們的 C 和噴塗技術的影響，這在當前的宏觀環境中比以往任何時候都更加重要。

Cory.

科里.

This is Jeep and maybe one thing to add on to that.

這是吉普車，也許還要補充一點。

There's been quite a bit of discussion about our paper use model.

關於我們的紙張使用模型已經有很多討論。

And if it's the right go to market strategy for some of our latest tech offerings, the reality is that we're seeing higher levels of adoption using this model compared to our traditional upfront pricing approach.

如果這是我們一些最新技術產品的正確市場策略，那麼事實是，與我們傳統的預先定價方法相比，我們看到使用這種模式的採用率更高。

But only when it makes sense.

但只有當它有意義時。

For example, take our precision ag essentials kit, which includes three foundational pieces of technology guidance connectivity and onboard compute needed to run any of our other precision technology solutions.

例如，以我們的精密農業必需品套件為例，其中包括運行我們任何其他精密技術解決方案所需的技術指導連接和板載計算的三個基礎部分。

We recently changed the pricing model from a one time cost to a recurring license that allows customers to access the vital technology at a fraction of the traditional upfront investment.

我們最近將定價模式從一次性成本更改為定期許可證，使客戶能夠以傳統前期投資的一小部分來存取重要技術。

In the 1st year alone, we sold over 8,000 kits and these kits are being installed on equipment with an average model year vintage of 2012.

光是第一年，我們就售出了 8,000 多個套件，這些套件安裝在平均型號年份為 2012 年的設備上。

This example highlights the importance of finding new ways to meet our customers at every stage of their precision tech journey.

這個例子強調了尋找新方法來滿足客戶在精密技術之旅的每個階段的重要性。

It also emphasizes our commitment to providing cost scaling solutions that enable all customers to adopt precision technology regardless of the size of their operations.

它還強調了我們對提供成本擴展解決方案的承諾，使所有客戶無論其業務規模如何都能夠採用精密技術。

Thanks all.

謝謝大家。

It's great to see so many proof points demonstrating how our continuous through cycle investment in the business is driving significant innovation and differentiated value for our customers.

很高興看到如此多的證據證明我們對業務的持續整個週期投資如何為我們的客戶推動重大創新和差異化價值。

Now, before we open up the line for questions, Josh Jepson, do you have any final thoughts you'd like to share?

現在，在我們開始提問之前，喬什·傑普森（Josh Jepson），您最後還有什麼想分享的想法嗎？

Yeah, that'd be great.

是的，那就太好了。

I start by echoing John's comments from earlier 2024 marked a year of resiliency, resiliency in our business and resiliency in our in our employees who in the face of significant challenges throughout the year, still performed at the highest level and with the utmost determination and as a result, we delivered strong performance including over $25 in EPS, marking the second best level in company history and returned over $5.6 billion to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks.

我首先同意約翰在 2024 年初的評論，這標誌著我們的業務和我們的員工充滿彈性的一年，他們面對全年的重大挑戰，仍然表現出最高水平，並以最大的決心和作為結果，我們取得了強勁的業績，其中每股收益超過25 美元，創下公司歷史上第二高的水平，並透過股息和股票回購向股東回報超過56 億美元。

It's noteworthy that our earnings per share and cash returned to shareholders not only surpassed historical mid cycle levels but also historical peaks.

值得注意的是，我們的每股盈餘和股東現金回報不僅超過了歷史中期水平，也超過了歷史高峰。

This performance is yet another proof point of the structural performance improvement that we've made in the business and we build upon going forward and possibly even more important is the fact that we were able to do all of this while maintaining significant investment in the business across across both R&D and new product capital spending.

這一業績是我們在業務中取得的結構性業績改進的另一個證明點，我們在此基礎上繼續前進，可能更重要的是，我們能夠在保持對業務的大量投資的同時完成所有這一切。涵蓋研發和新產品資本支出。

As we look forward, we're encouraged by the significant pipeline of opportunities ahead, opportunities that we believe will drive even greater levels of customer productivity and profitability where there's our continued roll out of differentiated high quality hard iron or our increasing breadth of precision technology solutions.

展望未來，我們對未來的大量機會感到鼓舞，我們相信這些機會將推動客戶生產力和盈利能力達到更高水平，其中我們將繼續推出差異化的高品質硬鐵或不斷擴大精密技術的範圍解決方案。

Our focus is on making sure that each dollar unlocks the most incremental value.

我們的重點是確保每一美元都能釋放最大的增量價值。

Because at the end of the day, the only way we succeed is if our customers succeed, as we look ahead to 2025 we're excited and confident as ever that we can perform at step function levels better than previous cycles.

因為歸根結底，我們成功的唯一途徑就是我們的客戶成功，當我們展望 2025 年時，我們一如既往地興奮和自信，因為我們能夠在階躍功能水平上比之前的周期表現得更好。

Our proactive decisions in 2024 have positioned us well to achieve structurally better margins in what we anticipate will be a sub 80% of mid cycle year for equipment operations said more simply, we expect to deliver higher margins at trough than we did during the previous peak in 2013.

我們在2024 年的積極決策使我們能夠在設備運營週期中期的80% 以下實現結構性更好的利潤率，更簡單地說，我們預計在低谷時的利潤率將高於上一個高峰期的利潤率2013年。

We're proud of what we've accomplished this year, but we're never satisfied.

我們對今年所取得的成就感到自豪，但我們永遠不會滿足。

We come to work every day focused on solving the challenges our customers face 2025 will be another year of discipline, hard work and renewed focus to ensure our customers can achieve more tomorrow than they did today.

我們每天的工作重點都是解決客戶面臨的挑戰，2025 年將是另一個紀律嚴明、努力工作和重新聚焦的一年，以確保我們的客戶明天能夠取得比今天更多的成就。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬許。

Let's open up the line to questions from our investors.

讓我們歡迎投資者提問。

We're now ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call.

我們現在準備開始電話的問答部分。

The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure in consideration of others and our hope to allow more of you to participate in the call.

接線員將在考慮到其他人的情況下指導您投票程序，我們希望讓更多的人參與投票。

Please limit yourself to one question.

請只回答一個問題。

If we have additional questions, we ask that you rejoin the queue operator.

如果我們還有其他問題，我們會要求您重新加入隊列操作員。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Now, if you do have a question, please press star one.

現在，如果您確實有疑問，請按星號一號。

You will be announced by name and company.

我們將公佈您的姓名和公司。

So you know, when your line is open and our first question is from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.

所以你知道，當你的電話接通時，我們的第一個問題是克里斯汀歐文和奧本海默提出的。

Your line is now open.

您的線路現已開通。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thank you so much for taking the question.

非常感謝您提出這個問題。

Lots of color commentary particularly around some of the cadence in Q1.

很多色彩評論，特別是圍繞第一季的一些節奏。

But I'm, I'm just wondering if we could get a little bit of a cleaner bridge on what the margin expectations are for 2025.

但我只是想知道我們是否可以就 2025 年的利潤率預期建立一個更清晰的橋樑。

What are the puts and takes in terms of productivity cost that you're carrying over raw materials and, and the headwinds from the production in the first half.

就您結轉原材料的生產力成本以及上半年生產的不利因素而言，看跌期權和索取金額是多少。

Yeah.

是的。

Good to see you, Chris.

很高興見到你，克里斯。

I can hear you.

我聽到你的聲音。

I'll, I'll take a shot and the team jump in, I think as we think about, you know, margin.

我會，我會嘗試一下，然後團隊就會加入進來，我想當我們考慮利潤時。

There's a few things that place you at play here as you look at 2025 you know, fir first and foremost and, and, and notably, I think it's just the continued volume declines that we're seeing in the market, you know, expectations.

當你展望 2025 年時，有幾件事會讓你在這裡發揮作用，首先也是最重要的，而且值得注意的是，我認為這只是我們在市場上看到的銷量持續下降，你知道，預期。

As you look at the individual guides would be that total equipment operations, you know, would be down, you know, and, and, and kind of around 13% you know, for the, for the full year.

當你查看各個指南時，你知道，全年的設備總運行量將下降約 13%。

And certainly that, that continued level of volume reduction, you know, is weighing on the margins.

當然，銷量的持續減少正在給利潤帶來壓力。

You know, as we mentioned, you know, we expect pricing, you know, to be positive across all three segments.

正如我們所提到的，我們預計所有三個細分市場的定價都是正面的。

And Josh Jepson mentioned, you know, favorable production costs as well.

喬許·傑普森（Josh Jepson）也提到了有利的生產成本。

So, you know, receiving, seeing favorable price/cost, and in addition to that, obviously, some of the take the decisions we've made in terms of reducing cost this year, we'll carry over in the next year as well, you know, providing a lift.

所以，你知道，收到、看到有利的價格/成本，除此之外，顯然，我們今年在降低成本方面做出的一些決定，我們也將在明年繼續下去，你知道，提供搭便車。

And, and so overall, you know, it's, as you mentioned, you know, margin expectations relative to history very strong, I think maybe lastly, if you think about detrimentals, you know, probably a little bit higher than, than, than normal on the large ag business that, that's really a mix driven impact, you know, as we think about, you know, the large AG business in North America being down around 30%.

而且，總的來說，正如您所提到的，您知道，相對於歷史的利潤預期非常強勁，我想也許最後，如果您考慮有害因素，您知道，可能會比、比、比高一點對於大型農業業務來說，這是正常的，這確實是混合驅動的影響，正如我們所想，北美的大型農業業務下降了30% 左右。

You know, our, our sales reduction will be less than that given the comp to, to 2024 and the under production that we did this year, but still the outsized reduction, you know, in one of our most profitable regions and, and, and some of our most profitable product lines that will weigh on detrimentals next year.

你知道，我們的銷售額減少幅度將小於 2024 年的比較以及我們今年的產量不足，但你知道，在我們最賺錢的地區之一，仍然是大幅減少，並且，我們一些最賺錢的產品線明年將帶來不利影響。

Thanks Kristen.

謝謝克里斯汀。

Our next question is from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Yes.

是的。

Hi, good morning, everyone.

嗨，大家早安。

I'm wondering if you could just expand on the pool funds program and the use of pool funds to help the trade ins for the late model year equipment that I I know you can move around pool funds year to year and given the incentives last year from the rebates to dealers.

我想知道您是否可以擴大集合資金計劃並使用集合資金來幫助以舊換新最新型號的設備，我知道您可以每年移動集合資金，並考慮到去年的激勵措施給經銷商的回扣。

There's quite a bit that you're able to deploy to get those inventory levels down.

您可以部署相當多的資源來降低庫存水準。

Can you, can you just flush it out for us?

你能幫我們把它沖掉嗎？

And if you don't mind, just share the order of magnitude on how much you can put in that direction.

如果您不介意，請分享您可以朝這個方向投入多少資金。

Yeah.

是的。

Hey Jerry, you if you think about pool funds and, and maybe it's best to first put in context where we started, you know, the year and really the past couple of years, you know, the strong equipment demand that we saw 2022 and 2023.

嘿，傑瑞，如果你考慮集合資金，也許最好先考慮一下我們開始的背景，你知道，這一年，實際上是過去幾年，你知道，我們在 2022 年看到了強勁的設備需求， 2023 年。

And, and the associated sales there really drove a record level of full fund balance entering this, this downturn.

而且，相關的銷售確實推動了進入這次低迷時期的全額基金餘額創紀錄的水平。

And that, that's by design, you know, that's how we structure the program, you know, it, it provides stability and use market when we see a downturn.

這就是設計使然，你知道，這就是我們建立該計劃的方式，你知道，它在我們看到經濟低迷時提供穩定性和使用市場。

And we've seen that we've seen that play out, you know, in, in 2024 or as those funds are being deployed by our dealers to help drive, you know, reductions in used inventory, you know, be because of that.

我們已經看到，我們已經看到這種情況在 2024 年發揮作用，或者我們的經銷商正在部署這些資金來幫助推動二手庫存的減少，因為。

And again, by de by design, we've seen pull fund balances, you know, decline over the course of the year as, as dealers are using those funds.

而且，按照設計，我們已經看到拉動資金餘額在一年中有所下降，因為經銷商正在使用這些資金。

You know, we, we put some additional incentives that work to help support that balance.

你知道，我們採取了一些額外的激勵措施來幫助支持這種平衡。

That's what you saw with, with pricing in the fourth quarter for large ag as we talk about really, really flat pricing for the quarter.

這就是您所看到的，大型農業公司第四季度的定價，因為我們談論的是該季度非常非常平坦的定價。

That was really some specific work targeted towards used, and to help up the pool funds and that's actually contemplated, you know, in our pricing guide, you know, for 2025 as well, you know, we're talking about net price of 1% for the segment.

這實際上是一些針對已使用的具體工作，旨在幫助籌集資金池，這實際上是在我們的定價指南中考慮到的，您知道，2025 年也是如此，您知道，我們正在談論1 的淨價% 為段。

You know, that that's inclusive, you think about, you know, list price increases for next year in the range of 2 to 3%.

你知道，這是包容性的，你想想，你知道，明年的標價上漲在 2% 到 3% 的範圍內。

We are expecting a little bit higher incentive rate in, in 2025 and that higher incentive rate is, is really driven by a focus on continuing to you know, put funds to work in, in the pool fund area.

我們預計 2025 年的激勵率會更高一些，而更高的激勵率實際上是由對繼續將資金投入集合基金領域的關注所驅動的。

So, again, supporting, supporting the reduction in use that we're driving towards and we'll continue to do that and we can continue to do that with, with positive price.

因此，再次支持、支持我們正在努力實現的減少使用量的目標，我們將繼續這樣做，並且我們可以繼續以積極的價格這樣做。

Jerry.

傑瑞.

This is Josh, the only other thing I'd add, I mean, on top of just the pool funds unused, you know, we had a, we had a good finish to the year from a retail perspective on new, you know, Josh be laid out the where we ended from a, from an inventory perspective, whether it's, you know, large ag in, in North America or, or South America.

這是喬什，我唯一要補充的另一件事，我的意思是，除了未使用的資金池資金之外，你知道，我們從零售角度來看，我們今年取得了良好的收尾，你知道，喬許從庫存的角度闡述了我們結束的地方，無論是北美還是南美的大型企業。

We also had a really strong retail October in the construction division.

十月份，我們的建築部門零售業也表現強勁。

So, you know, we've talked about the trend which has been pretty negative the back half of the year October was, was a turn for us.

所以，你知道，我們已經討論過 10 月下半年的趨勢非常消極，但對我們來說是一個轉捩點。

We, we, you know, as, as noted in pricing, you know, we, we had a little more incremental incentives in the market, but we had a, we had a good, good month and really brought down inventory upper up, upper 10s reduction in inventory in in earth moving in four Q. So I I think, you know, overall between deploying incentives in the right places, whether it's for newer use, you know, we're, we're seeing that impact and like how we're positioned as we, as we step into 25.

我們，我們，你知道，正如定價中所指出的，你知道，我們，我們在市場上有更多的增量激勵措施，但我們度過了一個很好的月份，確實降低了庫存，在四個季度內，土方運輸的庫存減少了10 多分。當我們邁入25 世紀時，我們的定位如何。

Thanks Jerry.

謝謝傑瑞。

Our next question.

我們的下一個問題。

Is from Kyle Mangus with Citigroup.

來自花旗集團的凱爾·曼格斯。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I was hoping if you could just unpack the, the for your guidance a little bit, sounds like it is back half weighted.

我希望你能打開包裝，為你提供一點指導，聽起來好像它是半加權的。

Would just love to hear if, if that's kind of baking in any assumed improvement in retail demand and some of these end markets in ag and construction it, it.

我很想聽聽這是否會推動零售需求以及農業和建築業的一些終端市場的任何假設的改善。

It's more so Kyle related to I think, year over year comps.

我認為凱爾與逐年比較更相關。

You know, you could think about, you know, our segments and I'll, I'll look at large ag and construction and forestry and just, just look at it by half, you know, in, in 2024 large ag in the first half of the year was down 10% year over year compared to 23 in the back half.

你知道，你可以考慮一下，你知道，我們的細分市場，我會，我會看看大型農業、建築和林業，只看一半，你知道，在 2024 年，大型農業上半年同比下降10% ，而下半年則為23%。

It was down 30.

下跌了30。

It's similarly in construction and forestry.

建築業和林業也是如此。

First half of 2024 down, 4% year over year, back half down.

2024年上半年下降，年減4%，回落一半。

You know, so you look at how that's going to play out in year, over year comps.

你知道，所以你看看這將如何在一年、一年的比較中發揮作用。

You know, for, for 2025 you know, we, we would expect you know, greater year over year declines in the first half of the year for both segments, you know, particularly construction or forestry where we talked about, you know, significant under production in the first half of the year.

你知道，對於 2025 年，你知道，我們希望你知道，上半年這兩個領域的同比下降幅度更大，特別是我們談到的建築業或林業，你知道，顯著上半年已投入生產。

And then those, those comps will get progressively better as we move through the year, you know, when you're comparing it to, to the back half of 2024 please go.

然後，隨著我們度過這一年，這些比較將逐漸變得更好，你知道，當你將其與 2024 年下半年進行比較時，請去吧。

Our next question is from David Russell with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Russell。

I si your line is open.

我確認您的線路已開通。

Hi, I'm going to slide in two quick ones if you don't mind.

嗨，如果您不介意的話，我將快速插入兩個。

Just a little sort of piggybacking off the last comment.

只是對最後一條評論的一點補充。

So, so the first quarter just using midpoints, right?

那麼，第一季只使用中點，對嗎？

It's around $3 of earnings sales down, you know, whatever, 27% EPS down about 50.

銷售收入下降了大約 3 美元，無論如何，每股收益下降了 27%，大約下降了 50 美元。

But the rest of the year that is implied, you know, sales are only down nine earnings down about 15.

但在今年剩餘時間裡，銷售額僅下降 9 倍，獲利下降約 15 倍。

Just curious, I'm not trying to pin you to quarterly cadence, but just we have a sense of, of how the under production ceasing later in the year, at least how you're interpreting it.

只是好奇，我並不是想把你固定在季度節奏上，而是我們有一種感覺，今年晚些時候生產不足的情況如何停止，至少你是如何解釋它的。

Are we back to growth year over year by the third quarter and then second, not to get you in trouble.

我們是否會在第三季和第二季恢復年成長，以免給您帶來麻煩。

Just curious, your thoughts, I'll give you the platform to answer with the new administration coming in.

只是好奇，你的想法，我會給你一個平台來回答新政府的到來。

Just how are you thinking about the impact of tariffs and maybe compare it to, to to last time.

您如何看待關稅的影響，也許可以將其與上次進行比較。

The immigration question and obviously the the appointment of, of the new Secretary of Health and Human Services, just how to think about framework wise, how that could impact how, how farmers are thinking about their business.

移民問題，顯然還有新任衛生與公眾服務部部長的任命，如何明智地思考框架，這將如何影響農民如何思考他們的業務。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, thanks David.

是的，謝謝大衛。

Thanks for the questions.

感謝您的提問。

You know, start starting with the first one on, on, on the year.

你知道，從今年的第一個開始。

Yeah, I mean, as, as Josh Jepson mentioned, you know, as we think about Q1 particularly, you know, and sequentially, you know, that's going to be down 15% to 20% compared to the fourth quarter.

是的，我的意思是，正如喬什·傑普森（Josh Jepson）所提到的那樣，你知道，當我們特別考慮第一季時，你知道，你知道，與第四季度相比，這將下降15% 到20%。

And, and as Josh mentioned, if you look at the, you know, the margin expectations, you know, for, for the first quarter, you know, 300 to 403 100 to 400 basis points below the full year guide, you know, for equipment.

而且，正如喬希所提到的，如果你看看第一季度的利潤率預期，你知道，比全年指導低 300 到 403 100 到 400 個基點，你知道，對於設備。

So certainly you're going to see, you know, more of that decline in Q1 particularly again, You know, noting construction and forestry, which will be at the, at the top end of that range of top line sequential decline and that actually margins.

因此，您肯定會看到第一季出現更多下降，尤其是建築業和林業，這將位於營收連續下降範圍的頂端，實際上邊距。

If you think about like detrimentals for construction and forestry in the first quarter, it'll be, it'll be higher than the implied guide for the full year again, given the under production.

如果您考慮第一季對建築業和林業的不利影響，那麼考慮到生產不足，它將再次高於全年的隱含指導值。

And, and then, you know, to your question, as you, as you move throughout the course of the year, those, those year over year comps get better, you know, particularly in the back half.

然後，你知道，對於你的問題，隨著你在這一年中的變化，那些逐年比較變得更好，你知道，特別是在後半段。

And, and you get to kind of flattish if not up a little bit, you know, as you look at at, at 2020 at Q3, Q4 of 2025 you know, on, on the on the new administration.

而且，你知道，在 2020 年第三季、2025 年第四季，你知道，在新政府的領導下，即使沒有上升一點，你也會變得持平。

I mean, obviously we're thinking about that in terms of how it impacts our, our customers, you know, how it impacts you know, our suppliers and certainly how it impacts our operations as well.

我的意思是，顯然我們正在考慮它如何影響我們的客戶，你知道，它如何影響你知道，我們的供應商，當然還有它如何影響我們的營運。

You know, I think, I think too early at this point to know exactly what that means in terms of enacted policy and what, what the impact will be on those three stakeholder groups.

你知道，我認為，我認為現在還為時過早，無法確切了解這對已頒布的政策意味著什麼，以及對這三個利害關係人群體將產生什麼影響。

But certainly we're engaging and we will monitor that as we go forward.

但我們肯定會參與其中，並且我們將在前進過程中對其進行監控。

Yeah.

是的。

You know, and the other thing I'd like to add is we're, this is John May.

你知道，我想補充的另一件事是，這是約翰梅。

By the way, we're positioned really well, we, you know, we rely heavily on our highly skilled employees in the US to design and, and build high quality the most technologically advanced equipment in the world.

順便說一句，我們的定位非常好，您知道，我們嚴重依賴美國的高技能員工來設計和製造世界上技術最先進的高品質設備。

And as a result of that greater than 75% of all products that we sell in the US are assembled here in the US and they're assembled by highly skilled employees, 30,000 employees in the US that are located in 60 different facilities across 16 different states and a result of all of their hard efforts and frankly manufacturing leadership results in John Deeree ag and turf division being a net exporter of our products manufactured in the US, exporting it to other countries.

因此，我們在美國銷售的所有產品中，有超過 75% 是在美國組裝的，並且由高技能員工組裝，美國有 30,000 名員工，分佈在 16 個不同國家/地區的 60 個不同工廠。辛勤努力和坦率的製造領導力使得約翰迪爾股份公司和草坪部門成為我們在美國製造的產品的淨出口商，並將其出口到其他國家。

So we feel really positioned well, we've been at this for nearly 200 years building product in the US.

所以我們覺得自己的定位非常好，我們在美國生產產品已經有近 200 年的歷史。

And I'm very, very proud of our team and what they're able to accomplish.

我對我們的團隊以及他們所取得的成就感到非常非常自豪。

Thanks for the question, David.

謝謝你的提問，大衛。

Our next question from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安吉爾·卡斯蒂略。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Hi, thanks for taking my question.

您好，感謝您提出我的問題。

And I just wanted to maybe follow up a little bit more on the price dynamic, particularly in construction where you noted, you know, some bigger under production in the first quarter here.

我只是想更多地關注價格動態，特別是在建築領域，你知道，第一季正在生產一些更大的產品。

It seems like there's a little bit of a broadening of the soft, of the softness.

似乎柔軟度、柔軟度有一點擴大。

I think we had talked about rental fleets as being a factor and now it sounds like a little bit broader than that.

我想我們曾經討論過租賃車隊是一個因素，但現在聽起來似乎比這個因素更廣泛一些。

So with, with that in mind, can you just give us a little bit of color of what drives the price guide for the year being positive in, in construction and, or maybe how to think about that in the first kind of half of the year versus the second half and then yeah, just maybe more color on the trends that you're seeing outside of rental.

因此，考慮到這一點，您能否給我們一些推動今年價格指南在建築方面表現積極的因素，或者如何在上半年的情況下考慮這一點？租賃之外看到的趨勢有更多色彩。

Yeah, thanks for the question, Angel.

是的，謝謝你的提問，天使。

I mean, yeah, certainly, as we've, as you've mentioned, you know, I think the the price dynamic in construction and forestry, you know, it is competitive.

我的意思是，是的，當然，正如您所提到的，我認為建築和林業的價格動態具有競爭力。

And as we've talked, you know, it's a balance that we're maintaining, you know, between, you know, between price, you know, and share as we, as we look at the environment going ahead in terms of the cadence of price, I mean, really nothing of significance there as you look at, at the layout of the year.

正如我們所說，你知道，這是我們在價格和分享之間保持的平衡，當我們從以下方面看待未來的環境時我的意思是，從今年的佈局來看，價格節奏確實沒有什麼意義。

And the other thing I'd remind, remind you too is that if you think about our construction and forestry business, and the different elements of that business that includes road building, you know, which makes up 35% to 40% of that, that business as well.

我要提醒的另一件事是，如果你考慮我們的建築和林業業務，以及該業務的不同要素，包括道路建設，你知道，道路建設佔其中的 35% 到 40%，那個生意也是如此。

It's been a lot more stable And, and there's opportunity to get price, you know, there as well.

它已經穩定多了，而且還有機會獲得價格，你知道，那裡也有。

And so that, that adds into the mix, which is helpful, but, but certainly it's, it's dynamic.

因此，這增加了混合，這是有幫助的，但是，當然，它是動態的。

Thanks Angel.

謝謝天使。

Our next question is from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research and your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer，您的熱線已接通。

Hi, thanks everybody and thanks for the, the, the commentary around so many of the topics including used equipment.

大家好，謝謝大家，感謝您圍繞著如此多的主題（包括二手設備）發表的評論。

I'm curious if you can talk any more about that.

我很好奇你能否再談談這個問題。

I don't know if you're seeing already the kind of early bow way but people who would be trading up, you know, nibbling at some of the the higher price, higher valued used equipment.

我不知道你是否已經看到了那種早期的鞠躬方式，但人們會進行升級，你知道，蠶食一些價格更高、價值更高的二手設備。

I don't know what if anything you can say about where you expect dealer used inventory balances to kind of progress throughout the year.

我不知道您是否可以說一下您期望經銷商在全年中使用庫存餘額的情況。

Do we get to mid year and you work them down, you know, based on your production levels and how trade ins work.

到了年中，你會根據你的生產水準和以舊換新的運作方式來降低它們嗎？

Any, any further commentary on that would be great because that, that seems to be a sticking point still.

任何對此的進一步評論都會很棒，因為這似乎仍然是一個癥結所在。

Yeah.

是的。

Hey, Hey, Rob.

嘿，嘿，羅布。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Yeah, I mean, we, we feel good about the progress we've made.

是的，我的意思是，我們對所取得的進展感到滿意。

And I think, you know, as you think about where used inventory sits in North America, you know, it, it's going to be, levels that we're going to work on here over the next few quarters.

我認為，當你想到北美的二手庫存情況時，你知道，這將是我們在接下來的幾個季度中將要努力達到的水平。

It's not something you turn overnight.

這不是一朝一夕就能轉變的事。

I think we feel good about the stabilized level that we saw in the fourth quarter.

我認為我們對第四季度的穩定水平感覺良好。

You know, keep, keep in mind as you think about quarter, quarterly cadence on used, you know, Q4 for us is a big quarter from a retail standpoint of new equipment that drives trade ins, you know, coming in into the pipeline.

你知道，請記住，當你考慮二手設備的季度、季度節奏時，你知道，從新設備零售的角度來看，第四季度對我們來說是一個重要的季度，推動了以舊換新，你知道，進入管道。

And so to be able to you know, maintain and kind of mitigate, you know, the increase we've seen in the quarter we feel good about, you know, Q1 provides a really good opportunity for us as we think about you know, year end tax buying, you know, production levels a little bit lower typically in the first quarter.

因此，為了能夠讓您知道、維持並減輕我們在本季度看到的成長，我們感覺良好，您知道，第一季度為我們提供了一個非常好的機會，因為我們認為，年終稅收購買，你知道，第一季的生產水準通常會稍低一些。

You know, sequentially, this, this next quarter in Q1 provides an opportunity to continue to drive that down.

你知道，按順序來說，第一季的下一個季度提供了繼續降低這一點的機會。

But we'll, we'll be working over that again over the course of the next couple quarters.

但我們將在接下來的幾季中再次解決這個問題。

Yeah, Rob Corey, you know, we've seen as we closed out the harvest this year, we saw better than expected yields.

是的，羅布·科里，你知道，我們已經看到，今年收成結束時，我們看到了比預期更好的產量。

Obviously, price has been a concern, but we've seen more profitability than was likely expected.

顯然，價格一直是一個問題，但我們看到的盈利能力超出了預期。

Pricing activity in the market has been good.

市場定價活動一直都很好。

We, we said we're not ready to call the inflection point, but we have seen use levels plateau even though we had strong retail in the fourth quarter.

我們說，我們還沒有準備好迎接轉折點，但儘管第四季度零售強勁，但我們已經看到使用水準趨於穩定。

You know, we continue, we, we underproduced the demand and, and we saw the effects of that on the on the new side, but it's also showing up in what we do and use the the dealers' tactical focus on being able to right size the value of these machines, right size, the value of the trades.

你知道，我們繼續，我們，我們生產不足的需求，並且我們看到了這對新方面的影響，但這也體現在我們所做的事情和使用經銷商的戰術重點上，以便能夠糾正錯誤大小這些機器的價值，正確的大小，交易的價值。

We're seeing people come back into the market.

我們看到人們回到市場。

The bottom line is you take a late model used row crop tractor that those products are needed as people expand high speed planning in the market.

最重要的是，您需要一台最新型號的二手行間作物拖拉機，隨著人們在市場上擴大高速規劃，這些產品是需要的。

You know, we, we're taking high speed down further into the marketplace as they go out to plant and tighter windows, late model high horsepower row crops are needed.

你知道，我們正在以高速進一步進入市場，因為他們出去種植並且需要更緊密的窗口，需要最新型號的高馬力行間作物。

And we're seeing people come back into the market for them.

我們看到人們重新進入市場購買它們。

You probably have time for one more question.

您可能還有時間再問一個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our last question is from Jamie Cook with Truth Securities.

我們的最後一個問題來自真相證券公司的傑米庫克。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

And thanks for letting me ask the question.

謝謝你讓我問這個問題。

I just back to the detrimentals on PP and A you know, a little worse probably than I would have thought.

我只是回到 PP 和 A 的不利之處，你知道，可能比我想像的更糟。

And so my question is to what degree is pricing?

所以我的問題是定價到什麼程度？

I know you said positive pricing for for the year.

我知道你說過今年的積極定價。

But like with North America down, 30% can pricing be positive in that region.

但與北美市場的下滑一樣，該地區的定價可能會上漲 30%。

And then just the follow up, I know you said equipment operations will be 80% of mid cycle for 2025.

接下來，我知道您說過，到 2025 年，設備營運將佔週期中期的 80%。

Just your thoughts are on where large ag is going to be relative to mid cycle as we exit the year.

只是你的想法是，當我們退出今年時，大型農業相對於週期中期的位置。

And obviously what that means for 26.

顯然這對 26 意味著什麼。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Hey, Jimmy, thanks.

嘿，吉米，謝謝。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Yeah, we we expect to maintain, you know, positive price in, in North America.

是的，我們希望在北美保持正價格。

And again, you know, they're taking production costs as well as the price price/cost will be positive, you know, more, more muted, you know, than we've seen.

再說一次，你知道，他們正在考慮生產成本，而且價格/成本將是正數，你知道，比我們所看到的更多、更柔和。

We talked about 1% price realization.

我們談到了 1% 的價格實現。

And, and how do we do that?

而且，我們該如何做到這一點？

I mean, it starts with, with the new inventory levels that we talked about.

我的意思是，首先是我們討論的新庫存水準。

You know, again, kind of reiterate, you know, 220 horsepower tractors and above, you know, we reduced the units in the field by by 50% over the course of the year inventory to sales ratios for 220 horsepower and above like a 10%.

你知道，再次重申，你知道，220 馬力及以上的拖拉機，你知道，我們在這一年中將現場的單位減少了 50%，220 馬力及以上的庫存與銷售比率就像 10 %。

So very, very low, you know, combines at 4%.

所以非常非常低，你知道，合計是 4%。

You know, because of those tight levels, you know, that that allows us to, to maintain that price.

你知道，由於這些緊張的水平，你知道，這使我們能夠維持這個價格。

And again, as I mentioned, we, we've contemplated some increased level of, of incentives next year.

再次，正如我所提到的，我們已經考慮明年增加一定程度的激勵措施。

That that increased level is, is going towards use that's going towards pool funds, you know, as, as Corey described, we continue to work that down and continue to support our dealers and in helping to make those trades.

增加的水平將用於匯集資金，你知道，正如科里所描述的，我們將繼續努力降低並繼續支持我們的經銷商並幫助進行這些交易。

But net net given all those, those those we still believe we can deliver positive price in, in, in the year.

但考慮到所有這些，我們仍然相信我們可以在今年交付正價格。

Hey, Jamie, this is Josh.

嘿，傑米，這是喬許。

One other thing I point out is, you know, Brazil in 24 you know, given, given kind of all the challenges there was was negative from a price perspective.

我指出的另一件事是，考慮到從價格角度來看，巴西在 24 小時內面臨的所有挑戰都是負面的。

We see that bounce back and we see a positive price.

我們看到反彈並且看到積極的價格。

You know, in, in 25 I think reflective of, you know, a flatter environment inventory is in better shape.

你知道，在 25 年，我認為反映出，你知道，更平坦的環境庫存狀況更好。

So we, we expect that to, to turn favorably.

因此，我們預期情況會朝著有利的方向轉變。

So I think if you walk across the globe, we would expect positive price and PP A in in, in every region of the world.

所以我認為，如果你走遍全球，我們會期望世界每個地區都有積極的價格和購電協議。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks all that concludes our call for today.

感謝所有結束我們今天通話的人。

We appreciate everybody's time and for those of us in the U si, hope you have a great Thanksgiving holiday.

我們感謝大家的寶貴時間，對於我們美國的人們來說，希望您度過一個愉快的感恩節假期。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

As we are concluded again.

正如我們再次得出的結論。

Thank you for your participation today.

感謝您今天的參與。

You may disconnect, please at this time.

此時您可以斷開連線。