強鹿 (DE) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Deere & Company fourth-quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Josh Beal, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加迪爾公司第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）現在我將把電話交給投資者關係總監喬許‧比爾先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Hello. Welcome, and thank you for joining us on today's call, and a happy early Thanksgiving for those of you celebrating tomorrow. Joining me on the call today are John May, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Josh Jepsen, Chief Financial Officer; Deanna Kovar, President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production & Precision Ag, Americas & Australia; and Chris Seibert, Manager, Investor Communications.

你好。歡迎各位參加今天的電話會議，感謝各位的參與，也提前祝明天慶祝感恩節的朋友們節日快樂。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有：董事長兼首席執行官約翰·梅；首席財務官喬什·傑普森；全球農業和草坪事業部、生產和精準農業、美洲和澳大利亞總裁迪安娜·科瓦爾；以及投資者溝通經理克里斯·塞伯特。

Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's fourth-quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal 2026. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.

今天，我們將仔細研究迪爾公司第四季的收益，然後花點時間談談我們的市場以及我們對 2026 財年的展望。之後，我們會回覆您的問題。請注意，我們已準備好幻燈片，以配合今天上午的電話會議。您可以在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 上查看。

First, a reminder, this call is broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the expressed written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call. This call includes forward-looking statements concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to uncertainties, risks, changes in circumstances and other factors that are difficult to predict.

首先提醒大家，本次通話將在網路上進行現場直播，並錄製下來供迪爾公司日後播放和使用。未經迪爾公司明確書面同意，嚴禁以任何其他方式使用、錄製或傳播本受版權保護的廣播的任何部分。參與電話會議（包括問答環節）的人員同意，他們的肖像和在所有媒體上的發言可能會被存儲，並作為財報電話會議的一部分使用。本次電話會議包含有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性聲明，這些聲明受到不確定性、風險、情況變化和其他難以預測的因素的影響。

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K, risk factors in the annual Form 10-K as updated by reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，請參閱公司最新的 8-K 表格；風險因素請參閱年度 10-K 表格，該表格已根據向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告進行了更新。

This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings and Events.

本次電話會議可能包含不符合美國公認會計原則（GAAP）的財務指標。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比 GAAP 指標的調節表，已包含在新聞稿中，並發佈在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的“季度收益和事件”下。

I will now turn the call over to Chris Seibert.

現在我將把電話交給克里斯·塞伯特。

Thank you, Josh, and good morning to everyone joining us today. John Deere's fiscal 2025 results for the fourth quarter and for the full year reflect resilience of our business amidst a challenging and uncertain market backdrop. In the fourth quarter, the equipment operations delivered 9.2% margins. Full year operating margins came in at 12.6%, and we delivered over $5 billion in net income. Financial performance that represents our best results yet at this point in the cycle.

謝謝你，喬希，也祝今天所有參加我們節目的朋友們早安。約翰迪爾 2025 財年第四季和全年業績反映了我們在充滿挑戰和不確定性的市場環境下的業務韌性。第四季度，設備營運業務的利潤率為 9.2%。全年營業利益率為 12.6%，淨收入超過 50 億美元。這是本週期階段以來我們所取得的最佳財務表現。

Our teams continue to manage this downturn effectively by focusing on what we can control. And we believe the progress we have made throughout this past fiscal year positions us well as we enter fiscal year 2026. Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate that large ag in North America will continue to be subdued. However, there are indications of stabilization, and we also see areas of optimism emerging in other segments and geographies. Notably, we see opportunities for growth ahead in our small Ag & Turf and Construction and Forestry businesses.

我們的團隊繼續專注於我們能夠控制的事情，從而有效地應對此次經濟低迷。我們相信，過去一個財政年度取得的進展，將使我們在進入 2026 財政年度時處於有利地位。展望 2026 年，我們預期北美大型農業將持續保持低迷狀態。然而，有跡象顯示市場正在趨於穩定，我們也看到其他領域和地區出現了樂觀情緒。值得注意的是，我們看到小型農業和草坪、建築和林業業務未來都有機會成長。

Slide 3 begins with the results for fiscal year 2025. Net sales and revenues were down 12% to $45.7 billion, while net sales for equipment operations were down 13% to $38.9 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $5 billion, or $18.50 per diluted share.

第 3 張投影片從 2025 財年的結果開始。淨銷售額和收入下降 12% 至 457 億美元，而設備營運淨銷售額下降 13% 至 389 億美元。歸屬於迪爾公司的淨利潤為 50 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 18.50 美元。

Next, fourth-quarter results are on slide 4. Net sales and revenues were up 11% to $12.4 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were up 14% to $10.6 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company decreased to $1.1 billion or $3.93 per diluted share. Diving into our fourth-quarter results for our individual business segments, we'll begin on slide 5 with our Production & Precision Ag business.

接下來，第四季業績在第 4 張投影片。淨銷售額和收入成長 11% 至 124 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額成長 14% 至 106 億美元。歸屬於迪爾公司的淨利潤減少至 11 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 3.93 美元。接下來，我們將深入探討各業務部門的第四季業績，首先從第 5 張投影片開始介紹我們的生產和精準農業業務。

Net sales of $4.74 billion were up 10% compared to the fourth quarter last year, primarily due to higher shipment volumes and favorable price realization. Price realization in the quarter was positive by approximately 3 points. Currency translation was also positive by about 1 point.

淨銷售額為 47.4 億美元，比去年第四季成長 10%，主要原因是出貨量增加和價格實現良好。本季價格實現上漲約 3 個百分點。匯率波動也帶來了約1個百分點的正面影響。

Operating profit was $604 million, resulting in a 12.7% operating margin for the segment. The year-over-year decrease in operating profit was primarily due to higher production costs, higher tariffs, and special items, which were partially offset by price realization and higher shipment volumes.

營業利益為 6.04 億美元，該業務部門的營業利潤率為 12.7%。營業利潤年減主要是由於生產成本上升、關稅上漲以及特殊項目，但價格實現和出貨量增加部分抵消了這些影響。

Turning to Small Ag & Turf on slide 6. Net sales were up 7% year over year, totaling $2.457 billion in the fourth quarter, primarily due to higher shipment volumes. Price realization in the quarter was positive by approximately 1 point. Currency was also positive by more than 0.5 point. For the quarter, operating profit declined year over year to $25 million. The decrease was primarily due to higher tariffs, warranty expenses and production costs.

第六張幻燈片將介紹小型農業和草坪產業。第四季淨銷售額年增 7%，總計 24.57 億美元，主要原因是出貨量增加。本季價格實現上漲約 1 個百分點。貨幣匯率也上漲了超過0.5個百分點。本季營業利潤年減至 2,500 萬美元。下降的主要原因是關稅、保固費用和生產成本上漲。

Slide 7 details our fiscal year 2026 Ag & Turf industry outlook. We expect industry sales of large equipment in the US and Canada to be down 15% to 20%. Row crop farmers continue to face challenging farm fundamentals, which are pressuring short-term liquidity. Used equipment, while continuing to improve over the past quarter, remains a constraint to investment in new machinery. However, strong crop using consumption, new trade agreements, growing demand for biofuels and supportive government payments support potential upside.

第 7 頁詳細介紹了我們對 2026 財年農業和草坪產業的展望。我們預計美國和加拿大的大型設備產業銷售額將下降 15% 至 20%。農作物種植者持續面臨嚴峻的農業基本面挑戰，這給短期流動性帶來了壓力。二手設備雖然在過去一個季度中持續改善，但仍是投資新設備的限制因素。然而，農作物消費強勁、新的貿易協定、對生物燃料日益增長的需求以及政府的補貼支持了潛在的上漲空間。

For Small Ag & Turf in the US and Canada, industry demand is estimated to be flat to up 5%. The dairy and livestock sector continues to generate profits driven by strong beef prices. Additionally, a modest recovery in Turf is anticipated, following a rebound in the housing market and growth in the overall economy. In Europe, the industry is projected to be flat to up 5%. The outlook for the dairy sector continues to be robust with stabilizing interest rates helping to support investment decisions.

美國和加拿大的小型農業和草坪行業需求預計將持平或成長 5%。受強勁的牛肉價格推動，乳製品和畜牧業持續獲利。此外，隨著房地產市場的反彈和整體經濟的成長，草坪產業也預計將出現溫和復甦。在歐洲，該行業預計將持平或成長 5%。乳製品產業的前景依然強勁，利率趨於穩定，這有助於支撐投資決策。

In addition, margin for (inaudible) farmers are strengthening as crop yields recover in major European ag markets. Within South America, we anticipate industry sales of tractors and combines will remain flat in 2026. While soybean and corn acreage is expected to grow at trend line pace in Brazil. Customer demand for equipment has been tempered due to the high-interest rate environment.

此外，隨著歐洲主要農業市場作物產量的恢復，（聽不清楚）農民的利潤也增加。我們預計，2026 年南美洲的拖拉機和聯合收割機產業銷售將保持穩定。預計巴西的大豆和玉米種植面積將按趨勢線速度成長。由於高利率環境，客戶對設備的需求下降。

Additionally, strong global crop yields are weighing on prices, and the recent trade agreement between China and the US creates uncertainty around demand for Brazil exports of soybeans. In Argentina, industry growth is anticipated to moderate after robust growth in 2025. Industry sales in Asia are expected to be down 5%, following slight gains in India last year.

此外，全球農作物產量強勁也對價格構成壓力，而最近中美之間的貿易協定也為巴西大豆出口需求帶來了不確定性。預計阿根廷工業成長在 2025 年強勁成長後將放緩。繼去年印度市場略有成長之後，預計亞洲地區的產業銷售額將下降 5%。

Moving to our segment forecast on slide 8. We anticipate production and Precision Ag net sales to be down 5% to 10% in fiscal year '26. The forecast assumes roughly 1.5 points of positive price realization and about 1.5 points of positive currency translation. Segment operating margin for the full year is forecasted between 11% and 13%, reflecting stability in international markets amidst incremental tariff and mix headwinds with large ag in the US declining another year.

接下來是第 8 頁的細分市場預測。我們預計 2026 財年產量和精準農業淨銷售額將下降 5% 至 10%。此預測假設價格實現值將上漲約 1.5 個百分點，匯率變動也將上漲約 1.5 個百分點。預計全年分部營業利潤率在 11% 至 13% 之間，反映出儘管關稅增加和產品組合不利因素影響，但國際市場保持穩定，而美國大型農產品市場連續第二年下滑。

Slide 9 provides our forecast for the Small Ag & Turf segment. We expect fiscal year '26 net sales to be up around 10%. This includes 2 points of positive price realization as well as 1 point of positive currency translation. The segment's operating margin is projected to be between 12.5% and 14%, reflecting strength in the dairy and livestock segment.

第 9 張幻燈片提供了我們對小型農業和草坪行業的預測。我們預計 2026 財年淨銷售額將成長約 10%。這包括 2 個正向價格實現點和 1 個正向貨幣兌換點。該業務板塊的營業利潤率預計在 12.5% 至 14% 之間，反映出乳製品和畜牧業板塊的強勁表現。

Shifting to construction and forestry on slide 10. Net sales for the quarter were up 27% year over year to $3.382 billion due to higher shipment volumes. Price realization was negative by about 1 point, while currency translation was positive in the quarter by roughly 1.5 points. Operating profit increased to $348 million, resulting in a 10.3% operating margin. Higher shipment volumes and a positive sales mix were partially offset by increased production costs driven by higher tariffs and special items.

第 10 張投影片轉向建築和林業。由於出貨量增加，本季淨銷售額年增 27% 至 33.82 億美元。本季價格實現下降約 1 個百分點，而匯率變動則上升約 1.5 個百分點。營業利潤增至 3.48 億美元，營業利益率為 10.3%。出貨量增加和銷售組合改善的部分原因是關稅上漲和特殊商品導致生產成本增加。

Slide 11 outlines our 2026 Construction & Forestry industry outlook. Industry sales for earthmoving equipment in the US and Canada are expected to be flat to up 5%. And compact construction equipment in the US and Canada is also expected to be flat to up 5%. Construction markets are expected to experience modest growth, supported by employment at all-time highs and construction backlogs at robust levels.

第 11 頁概述了我們對 2026 年建築和林業行業的展望。美國和加拿大的土方設備產業銷售額預計將持平或成長 5%。美國和加拿大的小型工程機械市場預計也將保持穩定或成長 5%。受就業人數創歷史新高和建築工程積壓訂單量處於強勁水平的支撐，建築市場預計將出現溫和增長。

US government infrastructure spending continues to bolster the industry. Additionally, declining interest rates, increasing investments in rental fleets, and surging data center construction starts are also providing support. And while US single-family housing starts are expected to show modest improvement in 2026, investment activity in the private commercial sector continues to be restrained.

美國政府的基礎設施支出持續提振著該產業。此外，利率下降、租賃車隊投資增加以及資料中心建設開工量激增也提供了支撐。儘管預計 2026 年美國獨棟住宅開工量將略有改善，但私人商業領域的投資活動仍受到抑制。

Global forestry markets are expected to remain flat. Global road building markets are expected to remain flat at strong levels. Continuing with our C&F segment outlook on slide 12. 2026 net sales are forecasted to be up around 10%. Our net sales guidance for the year includes about 3 points of positive price realization and 1 point of positive currency translation. The segment's operating margin is projected to be between 8% and 10% as the benefits of higher North American earthmoving volumes and price realizations are tempered by incremental tariff expense.

全球林業市場預計將保持穩定。全球道路建設市場預計將維持強勁水準。繼續我們在第 12 頁對 C&F 業務部門的展望。預計 2026 年淨銷售額將成長約 10%。我們對今年的淨銷售額預期包括約 3 個百分點的價格實現利多和 1 個百分點的匯率變動利好。由於北美土方工程量和價格上漲的好處被不斷增加的關稅支出所抵消，該業務部門的營業利潤率預計將在 8% 到 10% 之間。

Switching to our financial services operations on slide 13. The worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere & Company was $293 million for the fourth quarter. The year-over-year increase was mainly due to favorable financing spreads, special items, and a lower provision for credit losses. For fiscal year '26, the net income forecast is $830 million. Results are expected to be lower year over year, primarily due to lower portfolio levels driven by volume, partially offset by favorable financing spreads.

第 13 頁將切換到我們的金融服務業務。第四季歸屬於迪爾公司的全球金融服務淨收入為 2.93 億美元。年比成長主要歸因於有利的融資利差、特殊項目以及較低的信貸損失準備金。2026 財年淨收入預測為 8.3 億美元。預計業績將同比下降，主要原因是交易量導致投資組合水準下降，但有利的融資利差部分抵消了這一影響。

Slide 14 concludes with our guidance for net income, effective tax rate, and operating cash flow. For fiscal year '26, our full-year net income forecast is expected to be in the range of $4 billion and $4.75 billion. Included in this estimate is projected pretax direct tariff expense of approximately $1.2 billion, with additional inflationary pressures also contemplated from the direct -- from the indirect impact of tariffs.

第 14 頁最後給出了我們對淨收入、實際稅率和經營現金流的預期。預計 2026 財年全年淨收入將在 40 億至 47.5 億美元之間。該估算包括預計稅前直接關稅支出約 12 億美元，同時也考慮了關稅的直接和間接影響所帶來的額外通膨壓力。

Next, our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate between 25% and 27%, which is higher year over year as a result of fewer discrete items and a less favorable geographic mix driven by projections for a higher percentage of income coming from outside the United States. Lastly, cash flow from equipment operations is projected to be in the range of $4 billion to $5 billion.

其次，我們的指導意見納入了 25% 至 27% 的有效稅率，由於獨立項目減少以及地域構成不利（預計來自美國境外的收入比例將更高），該稅率逐年上升。最後，設備營運產生的現金流預計在 40 億至 50 億美元之間。

We would like to highlight that our implied midpoint guidance of approximately $16 in earnings per share reflects sub-drought conditions in PPA, with projected fiscal year '26 sales at less than 80% of mid-cycle levels. This level of performance reflects the structural improvements we have made to the business over the last several years.

我們想強調的是，我們隱含的每股盈餘中點指引約為 16 美元，反映了 PPA 的低迷狀況，預計 2026 財年的銷售額將低於週期中期水準的 80%。這一業績水準反映了我們在過去幾年中對業務進行的結構性改進。

Our ongoing efforts to managing the cycle through proactive inventory management and cost control, and the resilience that comes from a more diversified business as both Small Ag & Turf and Construction Forestry are projected to grow in 2026.

我們持續努力透過積極的庫存管理和成本控制來管理週期，隨著小型農業和草坪以及建築林業預計在 2026 年都將成長，多元化業務帶來的韌性也增強了我們的韌性。

This concludes our formal remarks. We'll now cover a few topics before opening the line for Q&A. But before we get into the details, John, would you like to share your thoughts on the year?

我們的正式發言到此結束。接下來我們將介紹幾個主題，之後將開放問答環節。但在深入探討細節之前，約翰，你能否分享一下你對這一年的看法？

Thanks, Chris. 2025 marked a year of significant challenges and uncertainty. But it also reflected the resilience and strength of the Deere organization as we continue to demonstrate structurally higher performance levels while making substantial progress on our smart industrial journey. Despite the uncertainty, we delivered over $5 billion in net income, and we achieved Equipment Operations OROS of 12.6%, which included about 1.5 point impact from tariffs.

謝謝你，克里斯。 2025年是充滿挑戰和不確定性的一年。但這也反映了迪爾公司的韌性和實力，我們不斷展現出結構性更高的績效水平，同時在智慧工業轉型過程中取得了實質進展。儘管存在不確定性，我們仍實現了超過 50 億美元的淨收入，設備營運 OROS 達到 12.6%，其中包括關稅帶來的約 1.5 個百分點的影響。

It's notable that these income and margin levels surpassed our performance in 2020, the year we launched Smart Industrial. Despite being at a lower-level point in the cycle that year, continually demonstrating higher cycle-over-cycle performance, particularly in trough years emboldens us to stay the course as we advance towards our ambitions. We believe this fuels future growth that positions us to unlock even more value for our customers when this cycle inflects.

值得注意的是，這些收入和利潤率水準超過了我們在 2020 年的業績，而 2020 年正是我們推出智慧產業的那一年。儘管當年處於週期的較低點，但持續展現出更高的周期性表現，尤其是在低谷年份，這激勵我們堅持不懈地朝著我們的目標前進。我們相信這將推動未來的成長，使我們能夠在本輪週期轉變時為客戶創造更大的價值。

I also want to take a moment to thank our teams. Our organization is used to managing cyclicality. But this year, we faced an additional headwind of heightened uncertainty in a rapidly changing business environment. I am so proud of our team's grit and determination to push forward as well as the resulting accomplishments from their efforts.

我還要藉此機會感謝我們的團隊。我們公司已經習慣應對週期性波動。但今年，我們面臨著快速變化的商業環境中不確定性加劇的額外不利因素。我為我們團隊的毅力和決心感到無比自豪，也為他們努力的成就感到驕傲。

To name a few examples, our sales life cycle and John Deere financial teams worked hand in hand with our dealers to keep our customers up and running throughout the year, while at the same time, taking the actions needed to continue driving down used inventory levels.

舉例來說，我們的銷售生命週期團隊和約翰迪爾財務團隊與我們的經銷商攜手合作，確保我們的客戶全年都能正常運營，同時採取必要措施繼續降低二手庫存水準。

Our logistics, supply management, and finance teams partnered with the broader organization to assess and mitigate tariff exposures, manage disruptions in global supply chains and maintain sufficient liquidity, all in an effort to ensure our factories continued producing the complete goods and parts that support our customers on a deal basis. At the same time, our design and go-to-market teams sustained their constant focus on bringing cutting-edge innovations to the multiple production systems we serve, efforts grounded in the core principle of helping our customers do more with less.

我們的物流、供應管理和財務團隊與更廣泛的組織合作，評估和減輕關稅風險，管理全球供應鏈中斷，並保持充足的流動性，所有這些努力都是為了確保我們的工廠繼續生產完整的商品和零部件，以支持我們的客戶按合約進行交易。同時，我們的設計和市場推廣團隊始終專注於為我們服務的多個生產系統帶來尖端創新，這些努力基於幫助客戶以更少的資源做更多事情的核心原則。

That fuels customer value unlock and enables enterprise growth. As a result of this focus, we're seeing accelerating momentum in the growth of our tech stack, which is shown on slide 15 of the presentation. This growth is happening both in the number of solutions that we're bringing to market, and the depth and breadth of customer utilization of those solutions, and it's happening across all layers of the stack from base precision to digital engagement to advanced automation and to full autonomy.

這有助於釋放客戶價值並促進企業成長。由於這種專注，我們看到我們的技術堆疊發展勢頭正在加速，這在簡報的第 15 頁中有所體現。這種成長體現在我們推向市場的解決方案的數量上，以及客戶對這些解決方案的利用的深度和廣度上，而且這種增長貫穿整個技術棧的各個層面，從基礎精度到數位互動，再到高級自動化和完全自主。

More importantly, this growth isn't confined to large ag. In 2025, we saw an amplification of technology leverage across nearly all production systems. Let's look at two examples, one from the base of the tech stack and one from the top. At the base, we reached new heights in 2025 in terms of connectivity and digital engagement, supported by game-changing connectivity solutions like JDLink Boost, retrofit options like Precision Essentials, and the expansion of the John Deere operations center into road building, earthmoving, golf and turf.

更重要的是，這種成長並不限於大型農業企業。2025年，我們看到技術槓桿作用在幾乎所有生產系統中都得到了增強。讓我們來看兩個例子，一個來自技術棧的底層，一個來自頂層。在基礎方面，我們在 2025 年達到了連接性和數位化參與的新高度，這得益於 JDLink Boost 等顛覆性連接解決方案、Precision Essentials 等改造選項，以及約翰迪爾運營中心擴展到道路建設、土方工程、高爾夫和草坪等領域。

At the peak of the tech stack, we began the calendar year at CES in Las Vegas, showing you where we're directly leveraging our autonomy tech stack developed in row-crop farming into solutions for other industries like commercial mowing, orchards, and quarry operations. As we close out the fiscal year, we started taking orders for spring delivery of our autonomous row-crop tillage solution, which should help our customers get the job done at the right time, unconstrained by the challenge of labor scarcity.

在科技棧的巔峰時期，我們以拉斯維加斯的 CES 展會拉開了新一年的序幕，向大家展示了我們如何直接利用在農作物種植中開發的自主技術棧，為其他行業（如商業割草、果園和採石場作業）提供解決方案。在財政年度即將結束之際，我們開始接受春季交付的自主式行間作物耕作解決方案的訂單，該方案應該可以幫助我們的客戶在合適的時間完成工作，而不受勞動力短缺挑戰的限制。

In difficult markets, it's natural for people to focus only on the near-term challenges in front of them, but I am incredibly proud of how our organization has delivered exceptional performance in the current environment while also continuing to advance the development and delivery of solutions that have the potential to unlock tremendous value for our customers and serve as the foundation for Deere's growth into the future.

在市場環境艱難的情況下，人們自然會只關注眼前的短期挑戰，但我為我們公司在當前環境下取得的卓越業績感到無比自豪，同時我們也在不斷推進解決方案的開發和交付，這些解決方案有可能為我們的客戶創造巨大的價值，並為迪爾公司未來的發展奠定基礎。

I'm excited for all of you to hear more about this during our upcoming Investor Day on December 8, where we're going to spend a little bit of time reflecting on the past five years of Smart Industrial, but more importantly, talk about where we expect to take us in the years to come.

我很高興大家能在12月8日即將舉行的投資者日上聽到更多相關資訊。屆時，我們將花一些時間回顧Smart Industrial過去五年的發展歷程，但更重要的是，我們將探討未來幾年的發展方向。

Thank you, John. We are really looking forward to hearing more about the future of Smart Industrial in a couple of weeks. Before we move on to questions about the '26 guides, I'd like to focus briefly on our '25 results. This past fiscal year demanded a lot from our teams. But as John mentioned, we still delivered more than $5 billion of net income.

謝謝你，約翰。我們非常期待在幾週後聽到更多關於智慧工業未來發展的資訊。在我們討論 2026 年指南的問題之前，我想先簡單回顧一下我們 2025 年的成果。上個財政年度對我們的團隊提出了很高的要求。但正如約翰所提到的，我們仍然實現了超過 50 億美元的淨收入。

Josh Beal, could you please unpack what happened during the quarter as well as the entire fiscal year?

Josh Beal，您能否詳細介紹本季以及整個財年發生的事情？

Yeah, sure, Chris. I'll begin with the quarter. Overall, the results were in line with our expectations, but there were a few moving pieces that I'd like to briefly go over. Net sales for all segments finished a bit higher than expected, driven by strong execution at our factories, especially in North America. Price realization for PPA in the quarter was nearly 3%, while SAT came in at 1%.

好的，克里斯。我先從季度開始。總體而言，結果符合我們的預期，但其中有一些變數，我想簡要地談談。受工廠（尤其是北美工廠）強勁的執行力推動，所有業務部門的淨銷售額均略高於預期。本季 PPA 價格實現率接近 3%，而 SAT 為​​ 1%。

Notably, large ag price realization in Brazil in the quarter was strong, closing out 2025 with full-year mid-single-digit price growth after a challenging 2024. Quarterly pricing in Construction & Forestry was slightly negative due to additional incentives to support retail activity. Turning to costs. Direct tariff expense negatively impacted equipment operations margins in the quarter by more than 3%.

值得注意的是，巴西本季大宗農產品價格實現強勁，在經歷了充滿挑戰的 2024 年後，2025 年全年價格實現了中等個位數的成長。由於為支持零售活動而提供的額外激勵措施，建築和林業行業的季度定價略微下降。接下來談談成本。本季直接關稅支出對設備營運利潤率產生了超過 3% 的負面影響。

This is Jepsen. Touching on the full year for a moment. John already noted how our performance is a testament to the organization's perseverance in a year where we saw industry declines in a majority of major markets that we serve, placing the business below trough levels. The combination of our operational execution and the work that we've done to improve businesses over the last several years continued to yield positive results. Our margins are a notable example of this.

這是卡蕾·傑普森。簡單回顧一下全年情況。約翰已經指出，我們取得的成績證明了公司在這一年中的堅持不懈，而我們所服務的大多數主要市場都出現了行業下滑，導致公司業務跌至谷底。過去幾年，我們高效的營運執行以及為改善業務所做的工作，持續取得了積極的成果。我們的利潤率就是一個顯著的例子。

Even with the North American large ag industry declining this year by around 30%, we delivered margins over 450 basis points better than 2016, the last time we were at this point in the cycle. Excluding tariff headwinds, that improvement would have exceeded 600 basis points. A decade ago, the profitability of our business was heavily indexed to North American large ag with other geographies and business segments operating at much lower margins.

即使今年北美大型農業產業下滑了約 30%，我們的利潤率也比 2016 年高出 450 個基點以上，而 2016 年正是我們上次處於這個週期階段的時候。如果排除關稅不利因素，此改善幅度將超過 600 個基點。十年前，我們公司的獲利能力與北美大型農業密切相關，其他地區和業務部門的利潤率則低得多。

Since Smart Industrial, we've significantly raised the level of performance across all our business segments around the globe. While North American large ag continues to be a critical market for Deere, this diversification of profitability has bolstered the company's through cycle resilience. We're seeing the vision we had when we launched the Smart Industrial journey come to life with better performance across the breadth of our businesses.

自智慧工業時代以來，我們全球所有業務部門的績效水準都顯著提升。雖然北美大型農業仍然是迪爾公司的重要市場，但這種獲利多元化增強了公司應對經濟週期的韌性。我們看到，當初啟動智慧工業之旅時所設想的願景正在逐步實現，我們各個業務部門的績效都得到了提升。

Thanks for that additional color, Josh. Beyond profitability, this year's results also reflect focused cycle management, most notably in managing inventory. In North America, large ag, we produced roughly in line with retail demand for the full year, keeping new field inventory at the very low levels where fiscal 2025 started. Inventory to sales ratios for (inaudible) drive tractors both closed the year at 8% while 220-horsepower and above tractors were at 12%.

謝謝你增添了這抹色彩，喬許。除了獲利能力之外，今年的業績也反映了對週期管理的重視，尤其是在庫存管理方面。在北美，大型農業方面，我們全年的產量大致與零售需求持平，使新的田間庫存保持在 2025 財年開始時的極低水準。（聽不清楚）驅動拖拉機的庫存銷售比率在年底均為 8%，而 220 匹馬力及以上拖拉機的庫存銷售比率為 12%。

To put in perspective how low absolute inventory levels are, new field inventory for Deere 220-horsepower and above tractors ended fiscal 2025 at the lowest unit level we've seen in over 17 years. For Small Ag & Turf, (inaudible) global retail demand in 2025 by around 10%, and as a result, saw a significant reduction in field inventory levels, particularly in North America.

為了更直觀地了解絕對庫存水準有多低，2025 財年結束時，迪爾 220 匹馬力及以上拖拉機的新田間庫存量為 17 年多來最低水準。對於小型農業和草坪設備而言，（聽不清楚）2025 年全球零售需求下降了約 10%，因此，田間庫存水準大幅下降，尤其是在北美。

Notably, inventory for North American tractors below 100-horsepower was down nearly 40% year over year, while 100- to 220-horsepower tractor inventory in the region was down by nearly a third. Similarly, the underproduction that we did in North American earthmoving at the end of fiscal 2024 and into the beginning of fiscal 2025 has also positioned that business well for next year.

值得注意的是，北美地區 100 匹馬力以下拖拉機的庫存年減了近 40%，而該地區 100 至 220 匹馬力拖拉機的庫存年減了近三分之一。同樣，我們在 2024 財年末到 2025 財年初在北美土方工程領域採取的減產措施，也為該業務明年的發展奠定了良好的基礎。

Field inventory levels of North American earthmoving equipment were down around 35% from the end of our fiscal 2024 third quarter, positioning that business to build in line with retail sales in 2026 as that market shows signs of recovery. Cost management is the other hallmark of managing cycles. Our efforts to control production costs for the equipment operations remain successful throughout fiscal 2025.

北美土方設備的現場庫存水準比 2024 財年第三季末下降了約 35%，這使得該業務能夠在 2026 年與零售銷售同步成長，因為該市場已出現復甦跡象。成本管理是周期管理的另一個指標。2025財年，我們控制設備營運生產成本的努力將持續成功。

Excluding the impact from tariffs, full-year production costs were favorable driven by strong reductions in material cost. This enabled price cost ex tariffs to be positive as well, inclusive of the price actions that we took in a competitive earthmoving market and the additional pool funds that we deployed in large ag to support used inventory management. The work on costs enabled our future growth, evidenced by the record level of R&D investment that we made in fiscal 2025.

剔除關稅的影響，由於材料成本大幅下降，全年生產成本較為有利。這使得扣除關稅後的價格成本也為正值，其中包括我們在競爭激烈的土方工程市場中採取的價格措施，以及我們在大型農業領域部署的額外資金，以支持二手庫存管理。成本控制工作為我們未來的發展奠定了基礎，我們在 2025 財年投入的研發經費創歷史新高，這就是最好的證明。

Thanks, Josh. You mentioned used inventory management. I would like to discuss that topic a little further. Last quarter, we talked about the additional pool funds that we deployed to support used inventory reduction. Could you please provide an update on our current position in North America and share any notable developments or progress observed?

謝謝你，喬希。您提到了使用庫存管理系統。我想就這個話題再深入探討一下。上個季度，我們討論了為支持減少二手庫存而投入的額外資金池。請您介紹我們目前在北美的業務狀況，並分享我們觀察到的任何值得關注的發展或進展？

Sure, Chris. Support to these targeted pool funds programs, along with the ongoing commitment and focus of our dealers on improving the health of the trade ladder is generating positive momentum. This is particularly notable amongst late model year, high horsepower tractors, which remain the area of focus in the channel. As an example, Deere 175-horsepower and greater tractors in North America have declined by around 7% since they peaked in March 2025, supported by a 4% sequential decrease in the fourth quarter.

當然可以，克里斯。對這些專款池計畫的支持，以及經銷商持續致力於改善貿易體系健康狀況的決心和關注，正在產生積極的勢頭。這一點在較新年份、大馬力的拖拉機中尤其明顯，這些拖拉機仍然是該頻道關注的重點領域。例如，自 2025 年 3 月達到高峰以來，北美地區 175 匹馬力及以上迪爾拖拉機的銷量已下降約 7%，第四季環比下降 4%。

Compared to the previous cycle peak 10 years ago, current unit levels for this horsepower category are lower by nearly 15%, although the value of inventory today is higher than the last cycle due to a higher population of late-model equipment. However, that mix continues to improve.

與 10 年前的上一個週期高峰相比，目前該馬力類別的單位數量下降了近 15%，儘管由於較新型號設備的數量較多，今天的庫存價值高於上一個週期。然而，這種組合仍在不斷改善。

Notably, model year '22 and model year '23 used inventory of Deere [ADAR] tractors reduced by a mid-teens percentage in Q4 and is now around 25% below the peak in March 2025. Our used inventory progress in other product categories is also notable. Inventory levels of Deere 100 to 174-horsepower tractors have decreased around 20% from their 2025 peak. While Deere sprayers are down mid-teens and Deere planners are down nearly 30% from their recent highs.

值得注意的是，2022 年款和 2023 年款的迪爾 [ADAR] 拖拉機二手庫存第四季減少了十幾個百分點，目前比 2025 年 3 月的峰值低了約 25%。我們在其他產品類別的二手庫存進展也十分顯著。迪爾 100 至 174 匹馬力拖拉機的庫存水準比 2025 年的高峰下降了約 20%。迪爾牌噴藥機的銷售量比近期高點下降了十幾個百分點，迪爾牌刨床的銷量比近期高點下降了近 30%。

Deere used combines declined over 10% sequentially in our fourth quarter, resulting in a nearly 25% decrease from their Spring 2024 peak. Perhaps more importantly, the model year distribution of Deere used combines in the field has returned to a nearly normal level of distribution.

第四季度，迪爾二手聯合收割機銷量較上季下降超過 10%，比 2024 年春季的高峰下降了近 25%。更重要的是，迪爾公司在田間使用的聯合收割機的型號年份分佈已恢復到接近正常的分佈水準。

Thanks for highlighting those inventory reduction progress, Josh. This is Deanna. I'm glad to join everyone today and wanted to provide some additional thoughts. As mentioned, our team has done an excellent job managing new inventory, bringing us to low levels in North America. As we manage inventory through the cycle, considering current industry demand and when that might inflect, we not only think about the total level of inventory in the field but also the balance between new and used equipment.

謝謝你重點介紹了庫存削減方面的進展，喬希。這是迪安娜。很高興今天能和大家一起交流，也想補充一些想法。如同前面所提到的，我們的團隊在管理新庫存方面做得非常出色，使我們在北美的庫存水準降至較低水準。在整個週期中管理庫存時，考慮到當前的行業需求以及需求可能發生變化的時間，我們不僅考慮現場庫存的總量，還考慮新設備和二手設備之間的平衡。

Our goal is a healthy product mix and a healthy trade ladder that supports the current level of demand in the market. With that in mind, I'm pleased by the used inventory progress we've made jointly with our dealers. Although there's still work to be done here, the combination of our aligned channel and support provided by higher pool contribution rates and targeted programs in 2026 give me confidence that we have the right tools in place to sustain this positive momentum and position the market well in 2026.

我們的目標是建立健康的產品組合和健康的貿易體系，以滿足當前市場需求水準。考慮到這一點，我對我們與經銷商共同取得的二手車庫存進度感到滿意。儘管這裡還有許多工作要做，但我們整合的管道以及更高的資金池貢獻率和2026年有針對性的計劃所提供的支持，讓我相信我們已經擁有合適的工具來保持這種積極的勢頭，並在2026年為市場奠定良好的基礎。

Nevertheless, our customers are still facing headwinds that are driving near-term investment caution. Although there are incremental demand drivers emerging, our priorities remain clear: manage new inventory carefully, avoid oversupply when demand is still dropping, and double down on used inventory reduction. These priorities influence our approach to production planning. It's our intent to start the new fiscal year with lean production for North American large ag, while building flexibility in the full-year production plan to respond quickly when the market inflects.

然而，我們的客戶仍然面臨一些不利因素，導致他們在短期內投資持謹慎態度。儘管出現了一些新的需求驅動因素，但我們的優先事項仍然很明確：謹慎管理新庫存，在需求持續下降時避免供應過剩，並加倍努力減少二手庫存。這些優先事項影響著我們的生產計劃方法。我們的目標是在新財年開始時，對北美大型農業企業實行精益生產，同時在全年生產計劃中保持靈活性，以便在市場發生變化時迅速做出反應。

This is John. Building on Deanna's comments, I want to take a moment to express my gratitude to our dealers for the work that they've done this past fiscal year in support of our customers and our business. This partnership is critical, particularly when navigating the ups and downs of market cycles. I'm proud to work alongside them and consistently impressed by how they represent our brand through their dedication to customers, their drive for innovation and delivery of world-class support.

這是約翰。在迪安娜發言的基礎上，我想藉此機會向我們的經銷商表達我的感激之情，感謝他們在過去一個財政年度中為支持我們的客戶和業務所做的工作。這種合作關係至關重要，尤其是在應對市場週期的起伏波動時。我很榮幸能與他們共事，他們以對客戶的奉獻精神、對創新的追求以及提供世界一流的支持，始終展現出我們品牌的風采，這讓我印象深刻。

Thank you all for your comments and insights. Now let's build on that and talk in more depth about the Ag & Turf outlook for fiscal year '26. The guide varies by segment and geography. Can you please unpack why this is the case?

感謝大家的評論和見解。現在讓我們在此基礎上，更深入地探討一下 2026 財年的農業和草坪產業前景。該指南因細分市場和地理而異。請您詳細解釋一下這是為什麼？

This is Josh Beal. Happy to, Chris. Let's start with North America. Global farm fundamentals are expected to stay challenged in 2026. US crop yields have been strong, and we've seen robust production this year and in other major markets as well. As a result, the USDA expects stocks of -- global stocks of corn and wheat to rebuild and soybean stocks to remain at elevated levels, putting continued pressure on commodity prices. That dynamic, combined with the persistently high input prices we've seen over the last several years, continues to challenge farm profitability.

這是喬許·比爾。樂意效勞，克里斯。我們先從北美開始。預計2026年全球農業基本面仍將面臨挑戰。美國農作物產量表現強勁，今年以及其他主要市場都出現了強勁的產量成長。因此，美國農業部預計全球玉米和小麥庫存將恢復，大豆庫存將保持在高位，這將持續對大宗商品價格構成壓力。這種動態，再加上過去幾年我們一直看到的高昂投入價格，持續對農業獲利能力構成挑戰。

For the positive, commodity demand continues to climb, demand for US corn remains robust, with projected US exports to reach an all-time high, up 9% from the previous year. The amount of US corn going to ethanol is approaching record levels with US ethanol exports approaching a new peak for the second consecutive year, supported by recent trade deals and driven by strong shipments to Canada, the UK, India, and the Netherlands.

積極的一面是，大宗商品需求持續攀升，對美國玉米的需求依然強勁，預計美國玉米出口將達到歷史最高水平，比上年增長 9%。美國用於生產乙醇的玉米數量正接近歷史最高水平，美國乙醇出口量連續第二年接近新高，這得益於近期達成的貿易協議，以及對加拿大、英國、印度和荷蘭的強勁出口。

Meanwhile, Brazil is also allocating significantly more of its corn production for domestic ethanol use. Similar demand drivers exist for soybeans, the projected US soybean [crush] for the '25, '26 marketing year is expected to reach an all-time high, marking a 5% year-over-year increase. Similarly, US soybean oil use is also projected to reach record levels, primarily fueled by rising demand for biomass-based diesel.

同時，巴西也正將更多玉米產量用於國內乙醇生產。大豆也存在類似的需求驅動因素，預計 2025 年和 2026 年銷售年度美國大豆壓榨量將達到歷史最高水平，年增 5%。同樣，受生物質柴油需求成長的推動，美國大豆油的使用量預計也將達到創紀錄的水平。

Broadly, US renewable fuel policies continue to move in a positive direction. The EPA's proposed renewable fuel standards for 2026 and 2027 includes substantially higher targets for biomass-based diesel, while the clean fuel production tax credit was extended via the One Big Beautiful Bill, incentivizing the domestic production of biofuels. California enacted a law allowing for the sale of E15, providing additional support for long-term growth in ethanol consumption, and we are optimistic of federal solution will be finalized soon to allow the year-round sale of E15 across the country.

總體而言，美國再生能源政策持續朝著積極的方向發展。美國環保署提出的 2026 年和 2027 年可再生燃料標準包括大幅提高生物質柴油的目標，同時透過《一個美好的大法案》延長了清潔燃料生產稅收抵免，從而激勵了國內生物燃料的生產。加州頒布了一項法律，允許銷售 E15 汽油，為乙醇消費的長期成長提供了更多支持。我們樂觀地認為，聯邦政府很快將最終確定解決方案，允許在全國範圍內全年銷售 E15 汽油。

In addition to these favorable demand dynamics, US government support for farmers is expected to exceed $40 billion in 2025, with the majority of payments going to Row Crop producers. While farm balance sheets remain healthy with land value supportive of good near term -- good debt-to-equity ratios, additional government support provides help with near-term liquidity challenges facing growers.

除了這些有利的需求動態外，預計到 2025 年，美國政府對農民的支持將超過 400 億美元，其中大部分將流向大田作物生產者。儘管農場資產負債表依然健康，土地價值也支撐著良好的近期發展——良好的負債權益比率，但政府的額外支持有助於應對種植者面臨的近期流動性挑戰。

Moving to the Small Ag & Turf segment. Dairy and livestock margins remain healthy, supported by ongoing strength of beef prices. With favorable margins, bonus depreciation from the One Big Beautiful Bill is more attractive for customers in this segment and is expected to support modest equipment replacement growth in 2026. And as you mentioned earlier, Chris, we're expecting the turf industry to recover modestly next year as the housing market improves.

轉向小型農業和草坪設備領域。受牛肉價格持續走強的支撐，乳製品和畜牧業利潤率依然健康。由於利潤率有利，來自「一項重大法案」的額外折舊對該細分市場的客戶更具吸引力，預計將支持 2026 年適度的設備更換成長。正如你之前提到的，克里斯，我們預計隨著房地產市場的改善，草坪行業明年將小幅復甦。

Thanks, Josh. With that set up, let me jump in to cover our industry expectations. The backdrop that Josh just laid out, along with our current view of order books, drove our North American industry guides of down 15% to 20% for large ag and flat to up 5% for Small Ag & Turf. Translating that to Deere sales, the low inventory levels that we discussed previously in large ag will enable us to keep producing in line with retail demand in 2026.

謝謝你，喬希。有了這些準備，接下來我將談談我們產業的預期。Josh 剛剛描述的背景，以及我們目前對訂單量的看法，導致我們對北美大型農業行業的指導意見下降了 15% 到 20%，對小型農業和草坪行業的指導意見持平或上升了 5%。將此轉化為迪爾公司的銷售，我們先前在大宗農業領域討論過的低庫存水準將使我們能夠在 2026 年繼續生產符合零售需求的產品。

We mentioned in last quarter's call that based on the results of the early order program, Deere sprayer shipments would be down around 20% this coming year. Our plan to early order program resulted in a similar year-over-year change. In our [combine] EOP, which closes in mid-December, is projected to fall within our guided range for the industry.

我們在上個季度的電話會議上提到，根據早期訂單計畫的結果，迪爾噴藥機的出貨量明年將下降約 20%。我們的提前訂購計劃也帶來了類似的同比變化。在我們的[合併] EOP（12月中旬結束）中，預計結果將落在我們對該行業的指導範圍內。

North American large tractors operate on a rolling order book with row-crop tractor availability already pushing into the third quarter. Current order velocity indicates that demand for North American row-crop tractors in 2026 will also be within our forecasted range for the industry. But it's worth noting that velocity can shift as market conditions change, and we're prepared to respond. Preserving this optionality was a primary reason for our lean production approach to start the fiscal year, which will also cause our production to deviate from normal seasonality.

北美大型拖拉機的訂單是滾動式的，行間作物拖拉機的供應已經推遲到第三季。目前的訂單速度表明，2026 年北美農用拖拉機的需求也將在我們對該行業的預測範圍內。但值得注意的是，交易速度會隨著市場狀況的變化而變化，我們已做好應對準備。保留這種選擇權是我們在本財年開始時採取精實生產方式的主要原因，這也將導致我們的生產偏離正常的季節性規律。

For example, for large tractors produced in Waterloo, we typically see a seasonal build in North American inventory in the first quarter of the year. Given higher levels of uncertainty this past summer and early fall, when we were taking orders for Q1, we decided to limit production slots in the quarter for North America. As a result, we'll have a lower-than-normal level of seasonal production to start the year and won't see the typical earlier inventory build but we've given ourselves flexibility to adjust to demand in subsequent quarters.

例如，對於在滑鐵盧生產的大型拖拉機，我們通常會在每年的第一季看到北美庫存的季節性成長。鑑於今年夏季和初秋的不確定性較高，我們在接受第一季訂單時，決定限制北美地區的季度生產名額。因此，今年年初的季節性產量將低於正常水平，也不會像往常那樣在早期積累庫存，但我們已給自己留出了靈活性，以便在隨後的幾個季度根據需求進行調整。

Since setting our Q1 production plans, we have seen positive developments in the North American market. For example, the recent US trade agreement with China has lifted soybean prices to their highest levels in over a year, providing marketing opportunities for farmers to lock in more favorable prices.

自從我們制定第一季生產計劃以來，我們已經看到北美市場出現了積極的發展。例如，近期美國與中國達成的貿易協議已將大豆價格推高至一年多來的最高水平，為農民提供了鎖定更有利價格的市場機會。

Turning to South America. Our guide is for a flat industry in 2026. In Brazil, strong commodity production supported by area growth and the potential for interest rate reductions next year are supportive of demand. However, profitability for Brazilian corn and soy growers may be impacted by lower commodity prices and the potential return to more normal soybean trade activity between the US and China. I was just in Brazil a few weeks ago, and it was clear that there is strong enthusiasm for our solutions.

轉向南美洲。我們的指南針對的是2026年產業發展趨於穩定的情況。在巴西，大宗商品產量強勁，種植面積不斷擴大，明年利率可能下調，這些因素都支撐了需求。然而，巴西玉米和大豆種植者的獲利能力可能會受到大宗商品價格下跌以及中美之間大豆貿易活動可能恢復正常的影響。我幾週前剛去過巴西，很明顯，他們對我們的解決方案表現出了極大的熱情。

We have many new products and technologies coming to support increased productivity and precision for our Brazilian customer base. We have been investing in our solution development, factory production, and channel capabilities in the region, and the extended Deere team is poised to take advantage of it. Brazil is a great market for us today and an even bigger opportunity in the future.

我們將推出許多新產品和新技術，以提高我們巴西客戶群的生產效率和精度。我們一直在投資該地區的解決方案開發、工廠生產和通路能力，而迪爾集團的廣大團隊已經準備好從中受益。巴西現在對我們來說是一個很大的市場，未來更是一個更大的機會。

Closing out the ag walk around the world, we expect the European ag industry to be flat to up 5% in 2026. The outlook for dairy margins continues to be robust, and arable cash flows are showing improvement as harvest results exceeded expectations in key markets such as France, Germany, and Spain. With interest rates stabilizing at current levels, the environment in Europe is conducive for growers to move forward with planned investments following a period of caution.

結束全球農業考察之旅，我們預計到 2026 年，歐洲農業產業將保持穩定或成長 5%。乳製品獲利前景依然強勁，而隨著法國、德國和西班牙等主要市場的收成超乎預期，耕地現金流也呈現改善趨勢。隨著利率穩定在當前水平，歐洲的環境有利於種植者在經歷了一段謹慎期後推進計劃中的投資。

This is Jepsen. A couple of points to add. As we translate these industry outlook to our own sales forecast, we're expecting Small Ag & Turf to return to growth in 2026, with sales up about 10%. This is driven by a combination of improving end market demand as well as the benefit of producing much closer to retail demand compared to under production in 2025.

這是卡蕾·傑普森。還有幾點要補充。我們將這些行業展望轉化為我們自己的銷售預測，預計小型農業和草坪行業將在 2026 年恢復成長，銷售額將成長約 10%。這主要得益於終端市場需求的改善，以及與 2025 年產能不足相比，生產更貼近零售需求所帶來的益處。

For production in Precision Ag, we expect sales down 5% to 10%, which is comprised of the market outlooks noted, Europe up, South America flat, North America down. For large ag in North America, while we see the industry declining in '26, we also see a number of positive factors that lead us to believe this coming year will mark the bottom of the cycle. As noted earlier, consumption of US corn and soy remains strong and is expected to grow, paired with strong support for biofuels and recent improvement in commodity prices, the demand picture on grains feels incrementally better compared to a quarter ago.

對於精準農業的生產，我們預計銷售額將下降 5% 至 10%，其中包括上述市場前景：歐洲成長，南美持平，北美下降。對於北美的大型農業而言，雖然我們預計該行業在 2026 年將出現下滑，但我們也看到一些積極因素，使我們相信來年將標誌著週期的底部。如前所述，美國玉米和大豆的消費量依然強勁，預計還會成長，再加上生物燃料的強勁需求和近期大宗商品價格的改善，與一個季度前相比，穀物的需求前景略有好轉。

Additionally, with new trade agreements driving purchase commitments stability has been brought to the market. Lastly, the continued reductions that we're seeing in used inventory levels are freeing up the market as the trade ladder gets healthier.

此外，新的貿易協定推動了採購承諾，為市場帶來了穩定。最後，我們看到二手車庫存水準持續下降，隨著交易體系的健康發展，市場正在釋放能量。

This is John. One additional comment. We are encouraged by the administration's support and focus on the ag economy, delivering trade agreements and policies that are driving demand growth and stability for US farmers.

這是約翰。還有一點補充。我們對政府支持和重視農業經濟感到鼓舞，政府推出的貿易協定和政策正在推動美國農民的需求成長和穩定。

Thanks for your comments. I'd like to revisit Deanna's comments regarding our production plans and product mix. What implications does this have for seasonality as we begin the year?

感謝您的評論。我想再談談迪安娜關於我們生產計劃和產品組合的評論。這對年初的季節性變化有何影響？

Sure, Chris. For 1Q 2026, in production Precision Ag, we anticipate net sales will be close to the first quarter of 2025, but margins will be significantly lower in the low-single digits. Product and regional mix will be a large driver of the reduction as our lean production plan anticipates shipping fewer large tractors in Q1 versus historical first quarters, absorption of tariffs and lighter price realization, in part due to lower shipment volumes are also a headwind to margins year over year.

當然可以，克里斯。對於 2026 年第一季度，在生產型精準農業領域，我們預計淨銷售額將接近 2025 年第一季的水平，但利潤率將大幅下降至個位數低點。產品和區域組合將成為減少的主要驅動因素，因為我們的精益生產計劃預計第一季大型拖拉機的出貨量將比以往第一季少，關稅的吸收和價格實現的降低（部分原因是出貨量下降）也對同比利潤率構成不利影響。

And as we're talking about first quarter, it's also worth touching on Construction & Forestry compared to the first quarter of 2025, we expect top line to be up about 20%, while margins at similar levels due to the impact of tariffs.

既然我們在談論第一季度，也值得一提建築和林業行業。與 2025 年第一季相比，我們預計營收將成長約 20%，而由於關稅的影響，利潤率將保持在類似的水平。

Thank you for the insights. Building on that last comment, let's pivot to the overall C&F segment. 2025 proved to be a demanding year for C&F as we faced increased competitive price pressure and the highest level of tariff exposure amongst our business units. Despite these headwinds, we have observed some positive trends in both retail performance and order intake. Our outlook suggests that industry demand is expected to slightly improve in the coming year with our sales forecasted to outpace this industry growth.

感謝您的見解。基於上一點，我們接下來談談整個清關和貨運業務板塊。 2025年對清關和貨運業務而言是充滿挑戰的一年，我們面臨日益激烈的價格競爭壓力，並且是所有業務部門中關稅風險最高的一年。儘管面臨這些不利因素，我們仍然觀察到零售業績和訂單量方面出現了一些正面趨勢。我們預測，未來一年行業需求將略有改善，而我們的銷售額預計將超過行業成長速度。

Josh Beal, could you provide an overview of what we anticipate for 2026?

Josh Beal，您能否概述一下我們對 2026 年的期望？

Yeah, you bet, Chris. As you mentioned, we saw a pickup in retail demand for earthmoving equipment in the back half of fiscal 2025. North American earthmoving and forestry retails were up a mid-single digit year over year in our third quarter, and we saw this momentum carry into the fourth quarter, although our numbers require a little unpacking. As you can see in the appendix of our earnings call deck, Q4 North American earthmoving and forestry retails were down to single digit year over year.

當然，克里斯。正如您所提到的，我們在 2025 財年下半年看到了土方設備零售需求的成長。第三季度，北美土方工程和林業零售業年增了中等個位數，我們看到這一勢頭延續到了第四季度，儘管我們的數據需要一些解讀。正如您在我們財報電話會議簡報的附錄中看到的那樣，第四季度北美土方工程和林業零售額比去年同期下降了個位數。

However, our construction equipment retails were actually up mid-single digits in the quarter. This was offset by a year-over-year decline in compact construction, which faced a difficult comp as we saw strong activity for this segment in October 2024. Notably, our North American earthmoving order book is up around 25% year over year with availability approximately three to four months out.

然而，本季我們的建築設備零售額實際上實現了個位數中段的成長。但這被小型建築同比下降所抵消，因為我們在 2024 年 10 月看到了該領域的強勁活動，因此面臨著艱難的比較基數。值得注意的是，我們在北美的土方工程訂單量年增約 25%，預計未來三到四個月內均可供貨。

As previously discussed, our underproduction earthmoving in late 2024 and early 2025 has positioned us well from a field inventory standpoint. We expect to produce North American earthmoving equipment in line with retail in 2026, which is a significant driver of our 2026 net sales guide of up around 10%. Road building and forestry industry volumes are expected to remain flat year on year. Notably, our road building business given its market leadership position and global diversification continues to benefit from strength in infrastructure spending around the world.

如前所述，我們在 2024 年末和 2025 年初的土方工程量不足，使我們在現場庫存方面處於有利地位。我們預計 2026 年北美土方設備的產量將與零售量持平，這將大大推動我們 2026 年淨銷售額成長約 10%。預計道路建設和林業產業總量將與去年持平。值得注意的是，鑑於我們道路建設業務的市場領導地位和全球多元化，該業務將繼續受益於世界各地基礎設施支出的強勁勢頭。

This is John. I think it's important to note the impressive synergies that we're seeing in road building, particularly in terms of leveraging Deere technology. As the industry leader, we're now expanding the value proposition to customers with tools like the John Deere Operations Center, which we brought to road building in 2025.

這是約翰。我認為值得注意的是，我們在道路建設方面看到了令人印象深刻的協同效應，尤其是在利用迪爾技術方面。身為產業領導者，我們現在正透過約翰迪爾營運中心等工具，為客戶擴大價值主張，我們於 2025 年將其引入道路建設領域。

We believe that customers are now benefiting from an advanced digital platform to monitor fleet, logistics, and job performance. We've already seen over 3,200 customer organizations engaged with this platform. This is just one of many opportunities we have for delivering more value to customers in this sector.

我們相信，客戶現在正受益於先進的數位平台，該平台可以監控車隊、物流和工作績效。我們已經看到超過 3200 個客戶組織參與這個平台。這只是我們在這個行業為客戶創造更多價值的眾多機會之一。

Thank you both for your comments. Your insights have clarified the dynamics across different segments and geographies and explain why our overall focus suggests net sales will increase year over year. Now that harvest is complete, I'm also interested in learning about the technology progress we have made during the past fiscal year. What's ahead and how these advancements will further benefit our customers.

感謝二位的評論。您的見解闡明了不同細分市場和地區的動態，並解釋了為什麼我們的整體重點表明淨銷售額將逐年增長。現在收割工作已經完成，我也很想了解我們在過去一個財政年度中所取得的技術進步。未來發展方向以及這些進步將如何進一步惠及我們的客戶。

Josh Beal, could you share some updated statistics?

Josh Beal，您能分享一些最新的統計數據嗎？

Sure, Chris. Just like many of our customers' operations post-harvest, we had a good time to take stock of what we did in the past year. As John mentioned earlier, in fiscal 2025, we made significant progress across all layers of the tech stack, both in terms of expanded offerings and utilization but also in greater leveraging of technology across more production systems and geographies.

當然可以，克里斯。就像我們許多客戶在收穫後的營運一樣，我們也好好回顧了過去一年的工作。正如約翰先前所提到的，在 2025 財年，我們在技術堆疊的各個層面都取得了顯著進展，不僅體現在擴大產品和服務利用率方面，還體現在更廣泛地利用技術來服務更多生產系統和地區方面。

Let's start with the foundational layer of the tech stack, base precision. We've talked in the past about how Precision Essentials, our retrofit kit brings the core element of precision technology, guidance connectivity and onboard compute, deeper in the installed base of Deere and non-Deere equipment via a low upfront cost with an annual license.

讓我們從技術堆疊的基礎層——基礎精度開始。我們過去曾討論過，我們的改裝套件 Precision Essentials 如何透過較低的預付費用和年度許可，將精密技術、導航連接和車載計算的核心要素更深入地引入已安裝的 Deere 和非 Deere 設備中。

Reception of this offering continues to be strong. In the two years since it's been on the market, we've had orders for over 24,000 kits and this core technology has brought 3,300 new organizations into the John Deere Operation Center.

該產品的市場反應依然強勁。自從該技術上市兩年以來，我們已經收到了超過 24,000 套套件的訂單，這項核心技術已為約翰迪爾營運中心帶來了 3,300 個新組織。

Another key example of our growth in base Precision is JDLink Boost, which bring Starlink-enabled satellite connectivity to areas of the world where terrestrial cell is insufficient for machine connectivity. We launched a solution in Brazil in the US in January of this year and expanded the offering to additional regions over the summer. Since launch, we've taken over 8,000 orders for this solution globally.

我們基礎精準度成長的另一個關鍵例子是 JDLink Boost，它將 Starlink 支援的衛星連接帶到了世界上地面蜂窩網路不足以滿足機器連接的地區。今年一月，我們在美國巴西推出了解決方案，並在夏季將服務擴展到了其他地區。自推出以來，我們已在全球收到超過 8000 份該解決方案的訂單。

The next layer of the tech stack is digital, the John Deere Operations Center. John already mentioned how we've leveraged the operations center in the road building business. We've also brought it to earthmoving, commercial landscaping in golf. In agriculture, we continue to see higher and higher levels of digital engagement. The John Deere Operation Center now covers over 500 million engaged acres, a 10% increase from last year. The number of highly engaged acres rose by 17% year over-year, reaching 147 million.

技術棧的下一層是數位化的，也就是約翰迪爾營運中心。約翰已經提到我們是如何利用營運中心來開展道路建設業務的。我們也將其應用於土方工程、商業景觀美化和高爾夫球場等領域。在農業領域，我們不斷看到數位化參與程度越來越高。約翰迪爾營運中心目前覆蓋超過 5 億英畝的作業面積，比去年增加了 10%。高度參與的土地面積年增 17%，達到 1.47 億英畝。

More highly engaged acres suggest more customers each day are realizing the value gain from digitally documenting multiple production steps and executing value-enhancing actions using the tool. The next slide of tech stack is automation. Deanna, last quarter [read] -- shared some early customer feedback related to our newest combine offerings, harvest settings automation and predictive ground speed automation. Now that harvest is wrapping up, would you mind sharing your thoughts on how the season went?

參與度較高的農地表明，每天都有更多客戶意識到，透過數位化記錄多個生產步驟並使用該工具執行增值措施，可以獲得價值。技術棧的下一張投影片是自動化。Deanna 上個季度分享了一些關於我們最新聯合收割機產品、收割設定自動化和預測地面速度自動化的早期客戶回饋。現在收割季即將結束，您能否分享一下您對本季收割情況的看法？

Absolutely. Fiscal year 2025 marked the first year of availability for both solutions. Harvest settings automation had an impressive year one take rate of over 90% on North American combines. On average, operators use the technology over 60% of the time they were in the combine, resulting in over 5 million acres covered by this solution and the adoption of this tech isn't limited to the North American market.

絕對地。2025 財年是這兩種解決方案全面上市的第一年。北美聯合收割機第一年的收割設定自動化採用率高達 90% 以上，令人印象深刻。平均而言，操作員在聯合收割機上超過 60% 的時間都在使用這項技術，使得超過 500 萬英畝的土地都採用了這項技術，而且這項技術的應用並不局限於北美市場。

The 5 million acres covered and more importantly, value realized from this technology included acres in Brazil, Europe, and Australia. Predictive (inaudible) automation, which further enhances the harvest experience, yielded a nearly 30% increase in throughput measured by bushels per hour.

這項技術覆蓋的 500 萬英畝土地，更重要的是，由此產生的價值，涵蓋了巴西、歐洲和澳洲的土地。預測性（聽不清楚）自動化進一步提升了收割體驗，每小時產量（蒲式耳）提高了近 30%。

Continuing with automation, I'd also like to highlight the results we saw from See & Spray in 2025. This year, See & Spray technologies also covered over 5 million acres, after covering over 1 million acres in 2024. The average herbicide savings from the technology in 2025 was around 50%. To give you a sense of this value that customers can realize, let me share an example from Agritechnica this month.

繼續談到自動化，我也想重點介紹我們在 2025 年從 See & Spray 專案中看到的成果。今年，See & Spray 技術覆蓋面積也超過 500 萬英畝，而 2024 年的覆蓋面積超過 100 萬英畝。到 2025 年，該技術平均可節省約 50% 的除草劑。為了讓您了解客戶能夠獲得的這種價值，讓我分享一下本月 Agritechnica 展會的一個例子。

A customer from the state of Washington approached us at the show and shared that in one day, he saved more than $20,000 using See & Spray. Examples like this give us confidence in the continued growth in both adoption and utilization of the technology. The tech is working. And when customers see that value in their operation, it's anticipated that they will continue to use it pass over pass and season over season.

一位來自華盛頓州的顧客在展會上找到我們，告訴我們他使用 See & Spray 一天就節省了超過 20,000 美元。這樣的例子讓我們對這項技術的普及和應用持續成長充滿信心。技術運作正常。當客戶看到這種價值體現在他們的營運中時，預計他們會年復一年、年復一年地繼續使用它。

Thanks all. It's great to hear the examples of technology adding real value to our customers. Deanna, would you mind sharing some thoughts on the top layer of the tech stack, autonomy?

謝謝大家。很高興聽到科技為我們的客戶帶來真正價值的例子。迪安娜，你能否分享一下你對科技棧頂層——自主性——的看法？

Certainly, Chris. As John mentioned, we recently opened up dealer orders for our tillage autonomy kits that are retrofittable onto 8R and 9R tractors. I have the opportunity to visit an early autonomy customer two weeks ago in Illinois. He was pleased with their experience with autonomy on a 9RX and a 2,680 high-speed disk this fall. Autonomy is unique because the value to the customer is really more about operational flexibility.

當然，克里斯。正如約翰所提到的，我們最近開放了經銷商訂購我們的耕作自動化套件，該套件可以改裝到 8R 和 9R 拖拉機上。兩週前，我有機會拜訪了伊利諾州的一位早期自動駕駛客戶。他對他們今年秋天在 9RX 和 2,680 高速磁碟上的自主運作體驗感到滿意。自主性之所以獨特，是因為它對客戶的價值更體現在營運彈性上。

Autonomy certainly addresses labor shortages while also allowing existing resources to concentrate on higher-value tasks within their operations. But to this customer, I visited in Illinois, it was even more than convenience. He said it was invaluable to have the ability to get a job done when there is no one around to put in the seat to just take the tractor to the field and let it go to work. And no matter where I go in the world, labor availability is a huge issue on the farm, especially in busy seasons like spring and fall.

自主運作無疑可以解決勞動力短缺問題，同時也能讓現有資源專注於營運中更有價值的任務。但對於我在伊利諾州拜訪的這位顧客來說，便利性遠不止於此。他說，當周圍沒有人可以坐在駕駛座上，把拖拉機開到田裡讓它工作時，能夠完成工作的能力是無價的。無論我走到世界哪個角落，勞動力短缺都是農場面臨的一大問題，尤其是在春季和秋季等繁忙季節。

That's why we began by concentrating on our corn and soy production system and started developing a solution that can support customers in those peak activity periods. Since the start of our autonomous tillage journey, we've covered over 200,000 acres autonomously, and we're looking forward to even more next spring.

因此，我們首先專注於玉米和大豆生產系統，並開始開發一種能夠在生產高峰期為客戶提供支援的解決方案。自從我們開始自主耕作以來，我們已經自主耕作了超過 20 萬英畝的土地，我們期待明年春天能耕作更多。

And labor availability isn't unique to the corn and soy production system. It's prevalent across all the production systems that Deere supports, which is why you saw us at CES this year highlight how we're leveraging the technology in high-value crops, turf care, and earthmoving. The value of autonomous solutions can be tremendous, and we're just getting started.

勞動力短缺問題並非玉米和大豆生產系統獨有。這項技術在迪爾公司支持的所有生產系統中都很普遍，因此您在今年的 CES 展會上看到我們重點介紹了我們如何在高價值作物、草坪護理和土方工程中利用這項技術。自主解決方案的價值可能非常巨大，而我們才剛起步。

Thank you. It's encouraging to see numerous examples that show how our ongoing tech investments are fueling substantial innovation and creating real value for our customers. Now before we open the line for questions, do you have any final thoughts you'd like to share Josh Jepsen?

謝謝。令人鼓舞的是，我們看到了許多例子，這些例子表明，我們持續的技術投資正在推動實質的創新，並為我們的客戶創造真正的價值。在開放提問環節之前，喬許傑普森，你還有什麼最後想跟大家分享的嗎？

Yeah. I'll be brief. 2025 was a challenging year for the industry and for our team at Deere as the agricultural sector continued its downturn for a second straight year. As mentioned before, I've never witnessed Deere's resilience more than I did this year, represented by how we took care of customers while achieving performance that exceeded similar points -- other similar points in the cycle.

是的。我就長話短說。 2025年對於整個產業以及我們迪爾團隊來說都是充滿挑戰的一年，因為農業部門連續第二年陷入低迷。如同先前所提到的，我從未像今年這樣親眼見證過迪爾公司的韌性，這體現在我們既照顧好客戶，又取得了超越其他類似年份的業績——這是周期中其他類似年份的業績。

From a shareholder perspective, our performance yielded $18.50 in earnings per share that supported continued strong cash generation. Equipment operations cash flow was $5.1 billion, a significant improvement from past downturns and better than any year outside of the period of '21 to 2024, which enabled us to return over $2.8 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.

從股東的角度來看，我們的業績實現了每股 18.50 美元的收益，支持了持續強勁的現金流。設備營運現金流為 51 億美元，較以往經濟低迷時期有了顯著改善，並且優於 2021 年至 2024 年期間以外的任何年份，這使我們能夠透過股息和股票回購向股東返還超過 28 億美元。

We paused buybacks in the fourth quarter due to heightened market uncertainty, but we expect to resume our normal capital allocation activities in 2026. As we look ahead to the next year, we believe our field inventories across all segments are in good shape. We expect to see growth in Small Ag & Turf as well as in Construction & Forestry. And in North American large ag, we will enter the year lean from a production perspective but with flexibility to allow us to respond swiftly as market demand inflect.

由於市場不確定性加劇，我們在第四季度暫停了股票回購，但我們預計將在 2026 年恢復正常的資本配置活動。展望明年，我們相信我們各個領域的現場庫存狀況良好。我們預計小型農業和草坪行業以及建築和林業行業將出現成長。在北美大型農業領域，從生產角度來看，我們將進入一個精簡的年份，但我們將保持靈活性，以便在市場需求變化時迅速做出反應。

The structural improvements we've made empower us to support robust levels of R&D and capital spending. We remain focused on the long-term customer value that we expect to unlock through technology, which should enable future growth for Deere and greater level of value for shareholders and all stakeholders.

我們所做的結構性改進使我們能夠支援高水準的研發和資本支出。我們將繼續專注於透過技術釋放的長期客戶價值，這將為迪爾公司帶來未來的成長，並為股東和所有利害關係人創造更大的價值。

Finally, the achievements we delivered this year are a direct result of the commitment and hard work of our teams worldwide. I'm truly proud of what we've accomplished together, and we're excited to keep advancing our mission to empower customers to do more with less in 2026 and beyond.

最後，我們今年的成就直接歸功於我們全球團隊的奉獻和辛勤工作。我為我們共同取得的成就感到無比自豪，我們也期待在 2026 年及以後繼續推進我們的使命，幫助客戶以更少的資源做更多的事情。

Thanks, Josh. Now let's open the line to questions from our investors.

謝謝你，喬希。現在我們開通問答環節，回答投資人的提問。

We're now to begin the Q&A portion of the call. The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure. (Operator Instructions)

現在進入問答環節。操作員將指導您完成輪詢流程。（操作說明）

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Stephen Volkmann，Jefferies。

I guess I will focus on tariffs. And you talked about the $1.2 billion, I think, headwind, I think that was your '26 number. But how are you thinking about offsetting that and over what period would you think that that perhaps you'd be able to kind of recapture that. I'm trying to think a little bit about the cadence of the year. I assume you'll improve as the year progresses. But I'm curious how you're thinking about it.

我想我會重點關注關稅問題。你提到了 12 億美元的逆風，我想那是你 2026 年的數字。但是，您打算如何彌補這種損失？您認為需要多長時間才能彌補這種損失？我正在思考一年的節奏。我相信隨著時間的推移，你會進步的。但我很好奇你是怎麼看待這件事的。

Yeah. Thanks, Steve, for the question. You got the numbers right. So it's $1.2 billion is the pretax tariff hit in 2026. That's about $600 million incremental from the $600 million that we saw in 2025. Run rate of the tariffs by quarter is pretty evenly spread, roughly $300 million per quarter. If you look at our price cost expectation for 2026, inclusive of tariffs in that number, we expect to be price cost positive.

是的。謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。你算對了數字。所以，2026 年稅前關稅影響將達到 12 億美元。這比我們預計 2025 年的 6 億美元增加了約 6 億美元。關稅按季度計算的運行速度相當均勻，大約每季 3 億美元。如果查看我們對 2026 年的價格成本預期（包括關稅在內），我們預計價格成本將為正值。

So we'll start to capture back, we'll capture the incremental exposure this year and some of the exposure that we saw in 2025. That won't get us fully there, but it gives us a good chunk along the way. We'll continue to execute activities to mitigate that and expect to take some continued price in the future as well to cover that additional piece.

因此，我們將開始彌補，彌補今年新增的風險敞口以及我們在 2025 年看到的一些風險敞口。這雖然不能讓我們完全到達目的地，但可以讓我們朝著目標邁出一大步。我們將繼續採取措施來減輕這種影響，並預計未來將繼續承擔部分成本，以彌補這部分額外損失。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

Jamie Cook，Truist Securities。

Just a question on production in Precision Ag, just the -- on a 7% sales decline, the implied decrementals, I think, are approaching 60%. So just trying to understand that. I mean, I'm assuming a good portion of that is tariffs. So how much is allocated to tariffs. And also just your comments on mix, understanding North American large ag is going to be down a lot, but you've also spoken to improving profitability in other regions, in particular, Brazil.

關於精準農業的生產，我有個問題——銷售額下降 7%，我認為隱含的減產幅度接近 60%。我只是想弄明白這一點。我的意思是，我估計其中很大一部分是關稅。那麼，關稅方面分配了多少資金？還有您對產品組合的評論，我知道北美大型農業將會大幅下滑，但您也談到了提高其他地區（特別是巴西）的獲利能力。

So if you could just unpack the decremental margin on the sales decline.

所以，如果能詳細分析一下銷售額下降帶來的利潤率下降就好了。

Yeah, your numbers are right, Jamie. If looking at PPA specifically into 2026, it's around [60] would be the implied decremental margin. Tariffs, for that business, have approximately 1.5 or so margin impact for the full year of 2026. So if you back out that piece, it takes decrementals to kind of the low to mid-50s, so still elevated above normal levels for PPA. And that delta between normal would be the geographic mix that you're seeing.

是的，你的數字是對的，傑米。若具體來看 2026 年的 PPA，隱含的遞減幅度約為 [60]。對該企業而言，關稅在 2026 年全年將造成約 1.5 倍左右的利潤率影響。所以，如果去掉那一部分，減量幅度會降到 50 左右，仍然高於 PPA 的正常水準。而正常情況與實際情況之間的差異，就是你現在看到的這種地域分佈差異。

You're right, that profitability levels around the world have improved. We've talked to that. But still, North America, large ag remains our most profitable market. So it is negative mix for the year. And just given the magnitude of decline, that's what's driving the higher level of decrementals next year.

你說得對，世界各地的獲利水準確實有所提高。我們已經談過了。但是，北美大型農業仍然是我們利潤最高的市場。所以今年的整體情勢不利。鑑於下降的幅度，這正是導致明年降幅更大的原因。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默。

I wanted to double click on the large ag price assumption, that 1.5%. I think when we were talking about early order program that number in North America was closer to 3% to 4%. So could you just help us unpack at 1.5%? How much of that is being driven by maybe some of the geographic mix? Just a little bit more color on the underlying assumptions for that number.

我想雙擊查看大宗農產品價格假設，即 1.5%。我認為，當我們討論早期訂購計劃時，北美地區的這個數字接近 3% 到 4%。那麼，您能幫我們把1.5%的價格拆開看看嗎？其中有多少是由地域構成等因素所造成的？再補充一點關於這個數字背後假設的細節。

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Kristen, you're right, early order programs in large tractor pricing, North America for 2026, less price increases are in the range of 3% to 4%, and that's held. What you're seeing with 1.5% price guide is a couple of things. One thing you're spot on is geographic mix. We talked about Brazil in 2025.

是的。謝謝你的提問，克里斯汀，你說得對，北美地區 2026 年大型拖拉機價格的早期訂單計劃，價格漲幅在 3% 到 4% 之間，而且這個漲幅保持不變。1.5% 的價格指導反映了兩方面的情況。你說的有一點非常正確，那就是地域融合。我們討論了2025年的巴西。

We did a very strong price in Brazil in '25, mid-single-digit price increase positive. It will still be positive in 2026, but more muted, think about closer to that the guide range, so that is pulling down in some of the list price.

2025 年我們在巴西的價格表現非常強勁，價格實現了中等個位數的成長。2026 年仍將維持正成長，但成長速度會放緩，更接近指導價區間，因此部分標價會下降。

The other thing that's happening in North America is a -- call it, a parts mix versus complete goods. As we go down in the cycle, parts make up a bigger mix of our sales in a given year. And our price -- parts pricing, was a little more muted for 2026. But the combination of those two is really what's pulling down that guide versus the list price increases?

北美正在發生的另一個現像是——姑且稱之為——零件組合與完整商品的對比。隨著經濟週期的下行，零件在當年銷售額中所佔的比例越來越大。而我們 2026 年的零件價格則略顯保守。但正是這兩者的結合才真正拉低了指導價，使其低於標價上漲幅度？

Yeah. Thanks for unpacking that, Josh. This is Deanna. And as we think about North American pricing overall, we go back to two of our priorities. And first is the continued focus on use reduction. So you will see us continue to provide pool fund opportunities to our dealers at a similar level in '26 as we did in 2025. And from an overall pricing standpoint, we remain mindful of where our customers are at in the cycle and maintaining our opportunities for the future.

是的。謝謝你的詳細解釋，喬希。這是迪安娜。當我們考慮北美整體定價時，我們會回到兩個優先事項。首先，要持續專注於減少使用量。因此，您將會看到我們在 2026 年繼續以與 2025 年類似的水平為我們的經銷商提供資金池機會。從整體定價角度來看，我們會始終專注於客戶所處的週期階段，並維持我們未來的機會。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩，雷蒙詹姆斯。

The question is just on production costs in '26. You highlighted tariffs, but just ex that, you saw kind of a build throughout '25 just in terms of production costs. How are you thinking about that as we look into '26. Obviously, a number of pieces that flow into that. So maybe just some help in terms of for the overall equipment upside we're thinking about production costs.?

問題只涉及 2026 年的生產成本。你重點提到了關稅，但除此之外，你還看到 2025 年生產成本上升。展望2026年，你對此有何看法？顯然，這其中包含許多組成部分。所以，就整體設備優勢而言，我們考慮的是生產成本，或許可以提供一些幫助？

Yeah. Thanks, Thein, for the question. Yeah, if you back off the incremental $600 million of tariffs in production costs, we would still expect to be slightly unfavorable for production costs in 2026. But there's a few moving pieces there. Overheads for our business, particularly in large ag, are expected to be unfavorable next year.

是的。謝謝你的提問，Thein。是的，即使扣除生產成本中新增的 6 億美元關稅，我們預期 2026 年的生產成本仍然會略微不利。但這裡面有很多變數。預計明年我們業務的營運成本，特別是大型農業的營運成本，將處於不利地位。

We do have some headwinds in our North American labor from our current contract. 2026 is a step-up year in that contract for production labor. So that provides a headwind. That's largely offset by some favorability in profit sharing that we'll see next year just on lower income levels.

我們目前的北美勞動力合約確實為我們帶來了一些不利因素。根據該合同，2026年是生產勞動成本上漲的一年。所以這會造成不利影響。但這很大程度上會被明年收入水準降低所帶來的獲利分成優惠政策所抵銷。

Material ex tariffs will be slightly negative, pretty close to flat. That does include the inflationary impact of indirect impacts of tariffs that we're seeing in the business, but slightly negative when you roll it all together. But again, I think the point to make price/cost, we'd expect to be favorable for the full year. And again, that helps offset some of the tariff costs that we saw in 2025 that we weren't able to mitigate with price that year.

不含關稅的原物料價格將略微下跌，基本上持平。這確實包括了我們在業務中看到的關稅間接影響所帶來的通膨影響，但綜合所有因素來看，影響略為負。但我認為，就價格/成本而言，我們預計全年都會是有利的。而且，這也有助於抵消我們在 2025 年看到的一些關稅成本，而這些成本是我們當年無法透過價格來緩解的。

Thein, this is Jepsen. I'd say the other thing is we still have a bunch of opportunity runway as it relates to taking cost out of product and process production costs. So we've -- the teams have done a really good job over the last couple of years, and we think that will continue. So we're by no means done on that journey. That will continue to create opportunity for us to grow margins, particularly as we've seen some of these headwinds here over the back half of '25 into '26.

大家好，我是傑普森。我認為另一點是，我們在降低產品成本和製程生產成本方面仍然有很多機會。所以，在過去幾年裡，各隊都做得非常出色，我們認為這種情況會持續下去。所以，我們的旅程遠遠沒有結束。這將繼續為我們創造提高利潤率的機會，尤其是在 2025 年下半年到 2026 年期間，我們已經看到了一些不利因素。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

David Raso，Evercore ISI。

Given the full year large ag sales guide in the first quarter implied a flat, it's implying the rest of the year down 9%. I was just curious, when you think of PPA for the rest of the year after the first quarter. Are we down every quarter?

鑑於第一季全年大型農產品銷售預期為持平，這意味著今年剩餘時間將下降 9%。我只是好奇，在第一季之後，您如何看待今年剩餘時間的PPA（每單位產品價格）？我們每季都在虧損嗎？

And then maybe to help us with the margins for the rest of the year? Any cadence you can give us on the pricing, right? Obviously, the pricing was up. I know it was an easy comp in Brazil. But just 1.5% for the full year, just how to think about that cadence, just so to think how we get over the hump on kind of price cost later in the year if we don't if we don't have any growth in any quarter for large ag.

然後或許還能幫助我們提高今年剩餘時間的利潤率？你們可以提供我們一下定價方面的大致時間表嗎？顯然，價格上漲了。我知道在巴西那場比賽很簡單。但全年只有 1.5% 的增長，我們該如何看待這個增速，才能思考如果我們在任何一個季度大型農業都沒有增長，我們該如何克服今年晚些時候的價格成本難題。

Yeah. Thanks, David, for the question. As Deanna talked earlier, seasonality will be a little different for large ag next year, given our leaner start in Q1. We will see that typical ramp up in the second quarter. And actually, you're going to have a fourth quarter that's going to be particularly strong as well, just given some of the timing of the shipments.

是的。謝謝你的提問，大衛。正如迪安娜之前所說，鑑於我們第一季開局較為清淡，明年大型農業的季節性變化會略有不同。我們將在第二季度看到典型的成長勢頭。實際上，考慮到部分貨物的出貨時間，第四季的業績也會特別強勁。

To your question, we would expect to be down year over year in all those quarters, just given the level of decline that we're seeing. But you see margin improved quite a bit as you get into the second quarter, and we'll stay at those higher margin levels through the balance of the year. It's really an impact on Q1, given the lean production that's driving that.

對於你的問題，鑑於我們目前看到的下滑幅度，我們預計所有這些季度的業績都會比去年同期下降。但進入第二季後，利潤率有了相當大的改善，而且我們將在今年剩餘的時間裡保持較高的利潤率水平。考慮到精益生產是推動第一季業績成長的主要因素，這確實會對第一季產生影響。

David, this is Jepsen. The other thing I'd add is we would expect post 1Q to kind of return to more normal seasonality, highest net sales, highest margin in the second quarter. So a more traditional seasonality as we go from there. And then if you just step back and look at 2Q through 4Q, those margins, we would expect based on the guide to be north of 14% or around there. So a pretty big step up and then more even performance through the remainder of the year.

大衛，我是傑普森。我還要補充一點，我們預計第一季之後會逐漸恢復正常的季節性規律，第二季淨銷售額和利潤率將達到最高。所以，接下來我們將採用更傳統的季節性方式。然後，如果你回顧第二季度到第四季度，根據業績指引，我們預計這些利潤率將高於 14% 或接近這個水平。所以這是一個相當大的進步，然後在今年剩餘的時間裡表現得更穩定。

Jerry Revich, Wells Fargo.

傑瑞·雷維奇，富國銀行。

I'm wondering if you would care to provide an update on the expectations for See & Spray in terms of deliveries of retrofit kits into the US for '26 and any expectations on acreage coverage and overall as we look back on fiscal '25. Any update on progress on the subscription build-out that you can share?

我想請您提供 See & Spray 公司 2026 年在美國交付改裝套件的預期情況，以及在回顧 2025 財年時對覆蓋面積和整體情況的任何預期。關於訂閱服務開發的進展，您有什麼最新進展可以分享嗎？

Thanks, Jerry. I mean, maybe a couple of points there. First, just as we look at take rates of See & Spray on our 2026 early order program at a pretty similar level to what we saw in 2025 in terms of that factory installed piece. We'll need to see what happens with the retrofit orders, which tend to be placed over the course of the winter.

謝謝你，傑瑞。我的意思是，也許有那麼幾分。首先，正如我們在 2026 年早期訂單計畫中看到的那樣，See & Spray 的採用率與 2025 年工廠安裝的零件的採用率非常相似。我們需要看看改造訂單的情況如何，這些訂單通常是在冬季期間的訂單。

But from a take rate standpoint, we're a pretty similar level to what we saw in 2025. I think one point to make on acres covered is the returning customers that add machines in 2024 and moving into 2025, we saw them cover on average about 20% more acres their operation in the 2025 year.

但從成交率來看，我們與 2025 年的情況非常相似。我認為關於覆蓋面積需要指出的一點是，在 2024 年和 2025 年，那些繼續購買機器的回頭客，我們看到他們在 2025 年的作業面積平均增加了約 20%。

And that's a positive sign to us for a number of reasons. It validates what Deanna said earlier that the technology is working. It's delivering savings. And as a result, we see customers increasing utilization year over year. So our expectation is, to continue to grow that number in 2026.

這對我們來說是一個積極的信號，原因有很多。這證實了迪安娜之前所說的，這項技術是有效的。它能節省開支。因此，我們看到客戶的使用率逐年提高。因此，我們預計到 2026 年，這一數字將繼續增長。

Yeah. This is Deanna. In addition to the increasing installed base with new model year '26 sprayers coming out of factory and additional retrofit kits, increased per machine usage in their second year, we also know that See & Spray is expanding globally as we see other markets in the world beginning to take up this technology as well. So our expectation is to see growth in acres covered in 2026, and we look forward to seeing our customers have those great savings that we saw in 2025 continue.

是的。這是迪安娜。除了隨著 2026 年新款噴霧器出廠以及改裝套件的推出，安裝基礎不斷擴大，以及每台機器在第二年的使用量增加之外，我們還了解到 See & Spray 正在全球擴張，因為我們看到世界其他市場也開始採用這項技術。因此，我們預計 2026 年的覆蓋面積將有所成長，我們也期待看到我們的客戶能夠繼續享受到我們在 2025 年看到的巨大節省。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。

So a question for you on your guidance. So as we think about 2026, to what extent does it embed any additional farm assistance from the government. And then also, just like how do you think about the operating leverage of the business coming out of this deeper-than-the-normal cycle?

所以，我有一個問題想請教您。因此，當我們展望 2026 年時，政府在多大程度上會提供額外的農業援助？那麼，您如何看待企業走出這場比正常情況更深的周期後，其經營槓桿效應呢？

Yeah, happy to, Chad. I would say our baseline expectation is not for any more assistance. I mean, we base our forecast off of what we see in the market today, informed by order velocity and Deanna mentioned this in the comments, that we can see order velocity change. And we've seen some positives over the last, call it, month or so, as an example, the trade agreement with China, and we've seen a pickup in purchases of soybeans and that's been reflected in the soy price as well.

是的，我很樂意，查德。我認為我們的基本預期是不需要任何進一步的援助。我的意思是，我們的預測是基於我們今天在市場上看到的情況，並參考訂單速度。 Deanna 在評論中也提到了這一點，我們可以看到訂單速度的變化。在過去一個月左右的時間裡，我們看到了一些積極的方面，例如與中國的貿易協議，我們看到大豆的採購量增加，這也反映在了大豆價格上。

So we'll see how the rest of the year plays out. We've intentionally put some flexibility in the back half the response to changes in velocity, and we'll see how that plays out over the balance of the year.

所以，讓我們拭目以待今年剩下的時間會如何發展。我們特意在後半段對球速變化的反應中留出了一些彈性，我們將看看這在今年剩餘的時間裡會有怎樣的效果。

Yeah, Chad, this is Jeff. As it relates to leverage your question on kind of what -- as things inflect. I think as we start to see those volumes pick up and even in Production Precision Ag, as we discussed kind of first quarter versus the rest of the year, you see some of that improvement in benefit as we go through the year.

是的，查德，我是傑夫。至於如何利用你的問題來探討某種事情——隨著事情的變化。我認為，隨著產量開始回升，即使在生產精準農業領域，正如我們討論的第一季與今年其他季度相比，隨著年數的增加，你會看到收益有所改善。

Clearly, we're seeing that on small Ag & Turf and construction, even with, call it, 10% increased sales, those -- particularly if you take out the tariff impact. Those incrementals are really solid. So I think that's a positive reflection of that. I think across the businesses, too, we're seeing more from a technology perspective, whether that's in Construction & Forestry where we saw 20% growth in technology sales there, the opportunities in small Ag & Turf continuing to present themselves.

顯然，我們看到，在小型農業和草坪以及建築行業，即使銷售額增長了 10%，這些行業——特別是如果排除關稅的影響——也出現了這種情況。這些增量確實很紮實。所以我認為這是對這一點的正面反映。我認為，從技術角度來看，各個業務領域也都在發生更大的變化，無論是建築和林業領域（該領域的技術銷售額增長了 20%），還是小型農業和草坪領域不斷湧現的機會。

So I think the combination of the work we've done on the cost structure, obviously, we've got more work ahead of us as we work to mitigate and take out some of that tariffs. But I think the leverage for us as we inflect will be positive from a margin perspective.

所以我認為，結合我們在成本結構方面所做的工作，顯然，我們還有更多的工作要做，因為我們需要努力減輕和取消一些關稅。但我認為，隨著我們進入轉折點，從利潤率的角度來看，這將對我們的槓桿產生正面影響。

Thanks, Chad. We'll go ahead and do one more question.

謝謝你，查德。我們再問最後一個問題。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

史蒂文費雪，瑞銀集團。

I wanted to just clarify a couple of assumptions that you mentioned in the dialogue. I think there are some folks that were surprised to see the expectation of South America flat in light of some of the sort of incremental caution we've seen there, but it sounds like you cited some potential for lower interest rates. Can you just kind of give us a little more color on your confidence there. And then on the small ag side, you cited some expected improvement in -- or better results as a result of better housing activity. Can you just clarify if you've seen any indications of that already.

我想澄清一下你在對話中提到的一些假設。我認為有些人對南美經濟預期持平感到驚訝，因為我們已經看到南美市場出現了一些謹慎情緒，但聽起來你提到了利率可能走低的可能性。能再詳細說說為什麼這麼有自信嗎？然後，在小農方面，您提到由於住房活動的改善，預計會有一些改善——或者更好的結果。請問您是否已經看到任何這方面的跡象？

Yeah. Thanks, Steve, for the question. A couple of things on South America. We've talked about kind of a mix of caution and optimism in that region and as we've seen, I think over the past quarter, so it's probably a bit more caution there. And interest rates have been a big driver.

是的。謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。關於南美洲有幾點要說。我們之前討論過該地區既謹慎又樂觀的情緒，而且正如我們在過去一個季度所看到的，我認為現在那裡的情緒可能更加謹慎一些。利率是主要驅動因素。

The benchmark rate of 15% certainly having an impact on replacement. As we look at expectations over the last month or so, inflation expectations have eased a little bit. And as a result, you're seeing expectations for that rate to come down by a couple of points over the course of 2026.

15%的基準更換率肯定會對更換產生影響。回顧過去一個月左右的預期，通膨預期略有緩解。因此，預計到 2026 年，該利率將下降幾個百分點。

So obviously, we need to see how that plays out, and that will be impactful on the market. But well that's -- I think that's embedded sort of in that combination of caution and optimism, which is what's reflected in the flat guide. The only thing I would say is just on our order books in the region, they look really strong. I mean, we are about five months out in Brazil. So we've got pretty good coverage through most of the first part of the year.

所以很顯然，我們需要看看事情會如何發展，而這將對市場產生影響。但我認為這——我認為這體現在謹慎和樂觀的結合之中，而這正是平面指南所反映的。我唯一想說的是，就我們該地區的訂單情況來看，訂單量非常強勁。我的意思是，我們還有大約五個月的時間在巴西。所以，今年上半年大部分時間我們的報道都相當不錯。

Obviously, we need to see how it plays out in the back half. But from an order velocity standpoint, it looks good.

顯然，我們需要看看下半場比賽會如何發展。但從訂單處理速度來看，情況不錯。

I think one other positive there in Brazil is on high-value crop as we've seen some tariff relief on things like coffee, beef, citrus, particularly if you think about our small- and mid-tractor business, I think that bodes well for the industry and in turn for S&R dealers as well.

我認為巴西的另一個利好因素是高價值作物，我們看到咖啡、牛肉、柑橘等產品的關稅有所降低，特別是考慮到我們的中小型拖拉機業務，我認為這對整個行業以及S&R經銷商來說都是個好兆頭。

On small ag, Steve, and specific to turf, our forecast is based off of housing starts coming up a little bit next year, not a massive increase, but a low-single-digit increase in home sales, I should say, not housing starts home sales in 2026. That's based off of some expectations around easing in the US. We'll see how that plays out. But as we see home sales come back, that tends to be supportive of our turf business. And so we've got some modest growth in turf as well, which is reflected in that small ag guide of flat to up 5%.

史蒂夫，關於小型農業，特別是草坪種植，我們的預測是基於明年房屋開工量略有增長，不是大幅增長，而是房屋銷售量出現個位數低增長，而不是 2026 年的房屋開工量和房屋銷售量。這是基於對美國經濟放鬆的一些預期。我們拭目以待。但隨著房屋銷售的回升，這往往會對我們的草坪業務起到支撐作用。因此，草坪種植業也出現了一些小幅成長，這反映在小農經濟指導指數中，該指數持平或上漲 5%。

Yeah. One thing I'd add -- this is Jepsen. I think some -- the prospect of a little more -- a few more interest rate cuts and what that could mean for housing, both for our earthmoving, compact construction and turf are all positive, particularly given just the low levels of inventory, we're under inventory from a single-family housing perspective. So I think that a little bit of continued rate easing there would be positive.

是的。我還要補充一點——這是卡莉·蕾·傑普森。我認為，進一步降息的前景，以及這對住房市場可能帶來的影響，無論是對我們的土方工程、緊湊型建築還是草坪，都是積極的，尤其是在庫存水平較低的情況下，從獨棟住宅的角度來看，我們的庫存不足。所以我認為，繼續小幅放寬利率會是件好事。

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Steve. This concludes today's call, and we really appreciate everybody's time with us today. Just as a reminder, I will be hosting our upcoming Investor Day on December 8. You can find additional details for the event in the appendix of today's slide deck. And for all of those of you in the US who are celebrating, we hope you have a great Thanksgiving holiday. Have a great day.

是的。謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。今天的電話會議到此結束，非常感謝大家今天抽空參加。再次提醒大家，我將於12月8日主持我們的投資者日活動。您可以在今天幻燈片簡報的附錄中找到有關該活動的更多詳細資訊。對於所有在美國慶祝感恩節的朋友們，我們祝你們感恩節快樂。祝你有美好的一天。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect, and have a great rest of your day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連接，祝您今天餘下的時間愉快。