強鹿 (DE) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Deere & Company first-quarter earnings conference call.

早上好，歡迎參加迪爾公司第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Josh Beal, Director of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資者關係總監 Josh Beal 先生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hello.

你好。

Welcome, and thank you for joining us on today's call.

歡迎您，感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

Joining me on the call today are Josh Jepsen, Chief Financial Officer; and Josh Rohleder, Manager, Investor Communications.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有財務長 Josh Jepsen；以及投資人通訊經理 Josh Rohleder。

Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's first-quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal 2025.

今天，我們將仔細研究迪爾第一季的收益，然後花一些時間討論我們的市場和我們對 2025 財年的當前展望。

After that, we'll respond to your questions.

之後，我們將回答您的問題。

Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning.

請注意，我們提供幻燈片來補充今天上午的電話會議。

They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.

您可透過我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 存取它們。

First, a reminder.

首先，提醒一下。

This call is broadcast live on the internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company.

此次通話透過網路進行現場直播，並進行錄音，以供迪爾公司日後傳輸和使用。

Any other use, recording, or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited.

未經迪爾明確書面同意，嚴禁以任何其他方式使用、錄製或傳輸此受版權保護的廣播的任何部分。

Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

參加電話會議（包括問答環節）的參與者同意，他們在所有媒體上的肖像和評論可能會被儲存並作為收益電話會議的一部分使用。

This call includes forward-looking statements concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to uncertainties, risks, changes in circumstances, and other factors that are difficult to predict.

本次電話會議包含有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受不確定性、風險、情況變化和其他難以預測的因素的影響。

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K, Risk Factors in the Annual Form 10-K, as updated by reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關可能導致實際結果大不相同的因素的更多信息，請參閱公司最新的 8-K 表格（年度 10-K 表格中的風險因素），該表格已根據提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告進行了更新。

This call may also include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP.

此公告還可能包括不符合美國公認會計原則 (GAAP) 的財務指標。

Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings and Events.

有關這些指標的更多資訊（包括與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳）均包含在本新聞稿中，並發佈在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的「季度收益和事件」下。

I will now turn the call over to Josh Rohleder.

現在我將電話轉給 Josh Rohleder。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

John Deere completed the first quarter with a 7.7% margin for the equipment operations.

約翰迪爾第一季的設備營運利潤率為 7.7%。

Global ag fundamentals generally improved this quarter.

本季全球農業基本面普遍改善。

However, demand remains constrained by overall uncertainty in the market, which has continued to put pressure on order velocities, particularly in North America.

然而，需求仍然受到市場整體不確定性的限制，這繼續對訂單速度造成壓力，尤其是在北美。

Our fiscal 2025 ag outlook remains largely unchanged from prior guidance when excluding the impacts of currency movement over the past quarter.

排除上個季度貨幣變動的影響，我們對 2025 財年的農業展望與先前的指引基本保持不變。

Notably, shipping volumes were lower in the quarter versus expectations as we calibrated full-year production schedules to build as efficiently as possible.

值得注意的是，由於我們調整了全年生產計劃以盡可能高效地生產，本季的出貨量低於預期。

As a result, we expect to recover the first-quarter shortfall over the remainder of the year.

因此，我們預計第一季的缺口將在今年剩餘時間內彌補。

Construction and forestry end market fundamentals remain supportive of replacement demand, albeit dampened by elevated interest rates, macro uncertainty, and a competitive environment.

儘管受到利率上升、宏觀不確定性和競爭環境的影響，建築和林業終端市場基本面仍支持替代需求。

Planned underproduction in our Earthmoving segment during the first quarter drove further reductions in field inventory levels, enabling production optionality as market demand develops over the course of the year.

第一季度，土方工程部門的計畫產量不足導致現場庫存水準進一步降低，隨著一年內市場需求的發展，實現了生產的可選性。

Slide 3 opens with results for the first quarter.

投影片 3 顯示的為第一季的業績。

Net sales and revenues were down 30% to $8.508 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were down 35% to $6.809 billion.

淨銷售額和收入下降 30% 至 85.08 億美元，而設備業務淨銷售額下降 35% 至 68.09 億美元。

Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $869 million, or $3.19 per diluted share, which included $163 million of discrete tax benefits related to special items.

歸屬於迪爾公司的淨利潤為 8.69 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 3.19 美元，其中包括與特殊項目相關的 1.63 億美元單獨稅收優惠。

Turning to our individual segments, we begin with the Production and Precision Ag business on slide 4.

談到我們各自的部門，我們從幻燈片 4 上的生產和精準農業業務開始。

Net sales of $3.067 billion were down 37% compared to the first quarter last year, primarily due to lower shipment volumes.

淨銷售額為 30.67 億美元，與去年第一季相比下降 37%，主要原因是出貨量下降。

Price realization was positive by just over 1 point.

價格實現略高於 1 個點。

Currency translation was negative by roughly 2.5 points.

貨幣換算約為負2.5個百分點。

Operating profit was $338 million, resulting in an 11% operating margin for the segment.

營業利益為 3.38 億美元，該部門的營業利益率為 11%。

The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and sales mix, partially offset by lower SA&G and R&D expenses and reduced production costs.

年比下降主要由於出貨量下降及銷售組合減少，但被 SA&G 和研發費用下降以及生產成本降低部分抵銷。

Moving on to Small Ag and Turf on slide 5.

轉到幻燈片 5 上的“小型農業和草皮”。

Net sales were down 28%, totaling $1.748 billion in the first quarter as a result of lower shipment volumes.

由於出貨量下降，第一季淨銷售額下降 28%，總計 17.48 億美元。

Price realization was positive by just under 1 point.

價格實現略微上漲了 1 點。

Currency translation was negative by just under 1 point as well.

貨幣換算也出現了不到 1 個點的負變化。

Operating profit declined year over year to $124 million, resulting in a 7.1% operating margin.

營業利益較去年同期下降至 1.24 億美元，營業利益率為 7.1%。

The decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and sales mix, partially offset by lower production costs.

下降的主要原因是出貨量下降和銷售組合減少，但生產成本下降部分抵消了這種影響。

Slide 6 gives our industry outlook for Ag and Turf markets globally.

幻燈片 6 展示了我們對全球農業和草皮市場的行業展望。

We continue to expect Large Ag equipment industry sales in the US and Canada to be down approximately 30%.

我們繼續預計美國和加拿大大型農業設備行業銷售額將下降約 30%。

But higher interest rates, macro uncertainty, and elevated used inventory levels are slightly tempered by improving ag fundamentals and expectations for farm net income, which is further bolstered by additional government support.

不過，由於農業基本面改善和農場淨收入預期以及政府的額外支持，更高的利率、宏觀不確定性和二手庫存水準上升的影響略有緩和。

For Small Ag and Turf in the US and Canada, industry demand estimates remain down around 10%.

對於美國和加拿大的小型農業和草皮而言，行業需求估計仍下降約 10%。

The Dairy and Livestock segment remain (inaudible) at strong levels of profitability despite reaching the lowest level of cattle inventory in over 70 years.

儘管牛存欄量已達到 70 多年來的最低水平，但乳牛和畜牧業仍然（聽不清楚）保持著強勁的盈利水平。

However, profitability in these segments has not yet translated into equipment purchases.

然而，這些領域的獲利尚未轉化為設備購買。

US and Canada demand has been further impacted by continued weakness in turf and compact utility tractors as high interest rates weigh on purchase decisions.

由於高利率影響購買決策，美國和加拿大的需求受到草皮和小型多用途拖拉機持續疲軟的進一步影響。

Moving to Europe, the industry is now projected to decline around 5%.

轉向歐洲，預計該產業將下滑約 5%。

Farm fundamentals have stabilized, albeit down, with less volatile commodity prices and stronger dairy margins offsetting macro uncertainty.

儘管農場基本面有所下滑，但已經趨於穩定，大宗商品價格波動較小，乳製品利潤率上升抵消了宏觀不確定性。

Additionally, in Central and Eastern Europe, reduced pressure from Ukrainian grain imports is supporting better-than-expected farm net incomes.

此外，在中歐和東歐，烏克蘭糧食進口壓力的減輕支撐了農場淨收入優於預期。

In South America, industry sales of tractors and combines are expected to be roughly flat following two years of significant industry declines.

在南美，經過兩年的大幅下滑後，拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷售量預計將基本持平。

In Brazil, sentiment is showing signs of improvement as depreciation in the reals has pushed local commodity prices higher amidst a year of stronger yields.

在巴西，由於雷亞爾貶值導致當地大宗商品價格在一年收益率上升的情況下上漲，市場情緒顯示出改善的跡象。

In addition to softening input costs, farm margins are expected to improve.

除了投入成本下降之外，農場利潤率也預計將提高。

Additionally, declining production, tight global stocks, and strong demand have driven outsized profitability in coffee bean production, supporting equipment demand for small and mid-sized tractors.

此外，產量下降、全球庫存緊張以及需求強勁推動了咖啡豆生產的高額盈利能力，從而支撐了對中小型拖拉機的設備需求。

In Argentina, decreased currency risks and export tax reductions will support some improvements in farm margins despite negative impacts of dryness at the beginning of the year.

在阿根廷，儘管年初乾旱帶來了負面影響，但貨幣風險的降低和出口稅的減少將支持農場利潤率增加。

Industry sales in Asia are still projected to be down slightly.

預計亞洲的行業銷售額仍將略有下降。

Next, our segment forecasts begin on slide 7.

接下來，我們的細分預測從第 7 頁開始。

For Production and Precision Ag, net sales are now forecasted to be down between 15% and 20% for the full year.

對於生產和精準農業而言，預計全年淨銷售額將下降 15% 至 20%。

The forecast assumes roughly 1 point of positive price realization for the full year, offset by 2.5 points of negative currency impact.

該預測假設全年價格實現約 1 個點的正值，抵消 2.5 個點的負值貨幣影響。

The reduction to our sales guide from the prior quarter is primarily driven by the strengthening of the dollar relative to nearly all foreign currencies, most notably the Brazilian real, Canadian dollar, and euro.

我們的銷售指南較上一季減少，主要是因為美元兌幾乎所有外幣走強，最明顯的是巴西雷亞爾、加幣和歐元。

For the segment's operating margin, our full-year forecast is now between 16% and 17%, also reflecting the impacts of currency fluctuations.

對於該部門的營業利潤率，我們目前對全年的預測是在 16% 至 17% 之間，這也反映了貨幣波動的影響。

Slide 8 shows our forecast for the Small Ag and Turf segment.

幻燈片 8 顯示了我們對小型農業和草坪領域的預測。

We expect net sales to remain down around 10%.

我們預計淨銷售額仍將下降 10% 左右。

This guide now includes 0.5 point of positive price realization and 1.5 points of negative currency translation.

該指南現在包括 0.5 個點的正價格實現和 1.5 個點的負貨幣換算。

The segment's operating margin guide remains between 13% and 14%.

該部門的營業利潤率預期維持在13%至14%之間。

Shifting now to Construction and Forestry on slide 9.

現在轉到幻燈片 9 上的“建築和林業”。

Net sales for the quarter declined roughly 38% year over year to $1.994 billion due to lower shipment volumes.

由於出貨量下降，本季淨銷售額年減約 38% 至 19.94 億美元。

Price realization was negative by roughly 1 point.

價格實現大約下降了 1 個點。

Currency translation was also negative by more than 1 point.

貨幣換算也產生了超過 1 點的負面結果。

Operating profit of $65 million was down year over year, resulting in a 3.3% operating margin due primarily to lower shipment volumes and sales mix, as well as unfavorable price realization and higher SA&G and R&D expenses.

營業利潤為 6,500 萬美元，年減，導致營業利潤率為 3.3%，這主要是由於出貨量和銷售組合下降，價格實現不利以及 SA&G 和研發費用增加。

Lower shipment volumes were primarily due to planned underproduction to retail in the quarter as we reduced field inventory levels in our earthmoving segment.

出貨量下降主要是因為我們減少了土方工程部門的現場庫存水平，導致本季零售計畫產量不足。

Slide 10 describes our Construction and Forestry industry outlook.

幻燈片 10 描述了我們的建築和林業行業前景。

Industry sales for earthmoving equipment in the US and Canada are expected to be down around 10%, while compact construction equipment in the US and Canada is expected to be down 5%.

預計美國和加拿大土方設備的行業銷售額將下降約 10%，而美國和加拿大小型建築設備的行業銷售額預計將下降 5%。

End markets remain sequentially unchanged in 2025, with equipment demand tempered by uncertainty across both construction and compact construction equipment.

2025 年終端市場將維持環比變化，設備需求將受到建築設備和小型建築設備的不確定性的影響。

US government infrastructure spending remains at historically high levels, while single-family housing starts continue to increase as a result of low levels of existing home inventory.

美國政府基礎設施支出仍處於歷史高位，而由於現有房屋庫存水準較低，獨棟住宅開工量持續增加。

These tailwinds are offset by subdued multi-family housing starts in a softening commercial real estate market, as high interest rates continue to weigh on overall investment.

由於高利率持續拖累整體投資，這些有利因素被商業房地產市場疲軟導致的多戶住宅開工率低迷所抵消。

Additionally, earthmoving rental refitting remains at low levels.

此外，土方租賃改裝仍處於較低水準。

Global forestry markets are expected to be flat to down 5%, as all global markets continue to be challenged.

由於全球所有市場都持續面臨挑戰，預計全球林業市場將持平至下降 5%。

Global road building markets are forecasted to be roughly flat, with strong end market demand persisting amid a return to more normal ordering seasonality.

預計全球道路建設市場將基本持平，在訂單季節性恢復正常的同時，終端市場需求將持續強勁。

Moving to the C&F segment outlook on slide 11. 2025 net sales remain forecasted down between 10% and 15%.

轉到第 11 張投影片上的 C&F 部門展望。

Net sales guidance for the year includes flat net price realization and 1.5 points of negative currency translation.

全年淨銷售額預期包括持平的淨價格實現和1.5點的負貨幣換算。

The segment's operating margin continues to be projected between 11.5% and 12.5%.

預計該部門的營業利潤率仍將在 11.5% 至 12.5% 之間。

Now transitioning to our Financial Services Operations on slide 12.

現在轉到第 12 張投影片上的金融服務營運。

Worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere & Company in the first quarter was $230 million.

第一季歸屬於迪爾公司的全球金融服務淨收入為 2.3 億美元。

Net income was favorably impacted by a decreased valuation allowance on assets held for sale of Banco John Deere.

淨收入受到約翰迪爾銀行待售資產減損準備減少的正面影響。

Note that Deere completed this transaction with Bradesco for the sale of 50% ownership in Banco John Deere subsequent to the quarter in February.

請注意，在二月季度結束後，迪爾已與 Bradesco 完成了出售約翰迪爾銀行 50% 股權的交易。

Excluding this special item, net income decreased due to a higher provision for credit losses, which was partially offset by lower SA&G expenses.

除此特殊項目外，淨收入因信用損失準備金增加而減少，但 SA&G 費用減少部分抵消了這一減少。

For fiscal year 2025, our alloc remains at $750 million, as benefits from a lower provision for credit losses are partially offset by less favorable financing spreads.

對於 2025 財年，我們的分配額仍為 7.5 億美元，因為較低的信貸損失準備金帶來的好處被不太有利的融資利差部分抵消。

Finally, slide 13 outlines our guidance for net income, effective tax rate, and operating cash flow.

最後，第 13 張投影片概述了我們對淨收入、有效稅率和經營現金流的指導。

For fiscal year '25, our outlook for net income remains between $5 billion and $5.5 billion.

對於25財年，我們預期淨收入仍在50億美元至55億美元之間。

Next, our guidance now incorporates an effective tax rate between 20% and 22%.

接下來，我們的指導現在包含 20% 至 22% 之間的有效稅率。

And lastly, cash flow from the equipment operations remains projected between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion.

最後，設備營運的現金流預計仍在 45 億美元至 55 億美元之間。

Note that during the quarter, we made a voluntary 401H contribution of $520 million to fund our salaried post-retirement health care plan.

請注意，在本季度，我們自願繳納了 5.2 億美元的 401H 供款，以資助我們的帶薪退休後醫療保健計劃。

This will impact our cash flows for the full year.

這將影響我們全年的現金流。

However, our guidance range remains unchanged.

不過，我們的指導範圍保持不變。

This concludes our formal comments.

我們的正式評論到此結束。

We'll now shift to a few topics specific to the quarter.

我們現在將轉向討論本季的幾個具體主題。

Let's begin with Deere's performance this quarter.

讓我們先來看看迪爾本季的業績。

We saw net sales decline roughly 35% year over year and margins come in just under 8%.

我們發現淨銷售額年減約 35％，利潤率略低於 8％。

But we held the majority of our guides for the full year, notably net income.

但我們保留了全年大部分的指導方針，尤其是淨收入。

Josh Beal, can you break down what happened this quarter and then walk through what this means for the rest of the year?

Josh Beal，您能否分析本季發生的情況並說明這對今年剩餘時間意味著什麼？

Sure, happy to.

當然，很樂意。

I think it's important to start with a few thoughts on what our plans were for the quarter.

我認為首先對我們本季的計劃有一些想法是很重要的。

In North America Large Ag, our focus was continuing to work down used inventory levels while returning to normal production and shipment seasonality, albeit at lower volumes this year due to the projected industry decline.

在北美大型農業領域，我們的重點是繼續降低二手庫存水平，同時恢復正常的生產和出貨季節性，儘管由於預計產業衰退，今年的產量將會較低。

In Brazil, we targeted further reduction in combine field inventory, which was the one product line where we still had a little more underproduction to do following the significant inventory declines we achieved across all product lines in 2024.

在巴西，我們的目標是進一步減少聯合收割機田間庫存，這是繼 2024 年所有產品線的庫存大幅下降之後，我們仍然面臨產量不足的問題的產品線。

Lastly, in Construction and Forestry, recall that our plan was to shut down North American earthmoving production for roughly half the first quarter, significantly underproducing retail demand and positioning our field inventory as well for the remainder of the fiscal year.

最後，在建築和林業方面，回想一下，我們的計劃是關閉第一季大約一半時間的北美土方工程生產，這將嚴重不足零售需求，並導致我們的現場庫存在本財年剩餘時間內不足。

We feel great about the progress that we made across all three fronts.

我們對這三個方面取得的進展感到非常高興。

The plans that we executed, while contributing to the 35% year over year decline in sales that you mentioned, reflect our ongoing focus on proactively managing our business through this downturn.

我們執行的計劃雖然導致了您所提到的銷售額同比下降 35%，但也反映了我們在經濟低迷時期持續專注於積極管理業務。

There were a few variances this quarter that caused sales to decline slightly more than we had anticipated, specifically the timing of shipments and currency translation.

本季出現了一些差異，導致銷售額下降幅度略高於我們的預期，特別是出貨時間和貨幣換算。

Within our Ag and Turf divisions, we saw the timing of certain product deliveries get pushed out into the second and third quarters as we worked to optimize schedules for the full year.

在我們的農業和草皮部門，我們發現某些產品的交付時間被推遲到第二季度和第三季度，因為我們致力於優化全年的時間表。

Similarly, in road building, a shift to more normal seasonality in that industry pushed some shipments into future quarters.

同樣地，在道路建設方面，該行業轉向更正常的季節性，將一些出貨量推遲到未來幾季。

As a result, we expect to see these sales occur across the remainder of the year for all three divisions.

因此，我們預計這三個部門的銷售將在今年剩餘時間內實現。

Regarding currency, over the quarter, we saw mid-single-digit strengthening of the dollar against nearly all our foreign currency exposures.

至於貨幣，本季度，我們看到美元對幾乎所有外幣風險都出現了中等個位數的升值。

While this lowered our top-line results, particularly in Production and Precision Ag, due to the translation impact on non-US dollar sales, currency impact on operating profit was relatively minimal in the quarter due to currency hedges.

雖然由於非美元銷售額受到折算影響，導致我們的營收業績下降，尤其是生產和精準農業業務，但由於貨幣對沖，本季貨幣對營業利潤的影響相對較小。

For the full year, the reduction in both our net sales and operating profit guides for Large Ag are primarily driven by currency changes, as we extend the impact of the stronger US dollar to our rest-of-year projections, including our unhedged currency exposure in the latter quarters of the year.

就全年而言，大型農業業務的淨銷售額和營業利潤預期均有所下降，主要是由於貨幣變化所致，因為我們將美元走強的影響延伸至今年剩餘時間的預測，包括我們在今年後幾個季度未對沖的貨幣風險。

Shifting to cost management, we had a relatively strong quarter.

在成本管理方面，我們度過了一個相對強勁的季度。

In both of our Ag and Turf segments, we saw favorable production costs primarily due to reduced material costs and muted overhead headwinds.

在我們的農業和草皮部門，我們都看到了有利的生產成本，這主要是由於材料成本的降低和間接阻力的減弱。

Additionally, lower SA&G expenses this quarter reflect our focus and commitment to operational efficiency throughout the business.

此外，本季較低的 SA&G 費用反映了我們對整個業務營運效率的關注和承諾。

Turning to the full-year guide, our market demand outlook remains relatively unchanged this quarter.

回顧全年指引，我們對本季的市場需求展望保持相對不變。

Outside of the FX impacts that moved our PPA guide slightly lower, this quarter was really a story of continued production and inventory management.

除了外匯影響導致我們的 PPA 指南略有下調之外，本季實際上是持續生產和庫存管理的故事。

One last item of note, we did benefit from a favorable tax rate this quarter, resulting from two non-repeating discrete items totaling $163 million.

最後值得注意的是，本季我們確實受益於優惠的稅率，這得益於兩個非重複的獨立項目，總額為 1.63 億美元。

Therefore, when netted against the negative currency impacts and other quarterly items, our full-year net income forecast remains unchanged from our original 2025 guide.

因此，在扣除負面貨幣影響和其他季度項目後，我們的全年淨收入預測與我們最初的 2025 年指南保持不變。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for that breakdown, Josh.

謝謝你的分析，喬希。

So overall, it was really a quiet quarter once you back out the timing, FX, and tax items.

因此總體而言，一旦考慮時間、外匯和稅收項目，這確實是一個平靜的季度。

I guess moving then to the broader ag industry, I'd like to talk through farm fundamentals.

那麼我想轉向更廣泛的農業產業，我想談談農場的基本原理。

The USDA just updated their 2025 forecast for net cash farm income.

美國農業部剛更新了2025年農場淨現金收入預測。

While US net cash farm income is now forecasted to be up 22% year over year, crop cash receipts are still expected to fall 2% driven by lower commodity prices.

儘管目前預計美國農場淨現金收入將年增 22%，但由於大宗商品價格下跌，農作物現金收入預計仍將下降 2%。

The difference then would be the significant government support expected for farmers this year.

差異在於今年政府預計為農民提供大量支持。

Obviously, it's still early in the year, but this seems to be a somewhat positive proof point for our customers following a tough 2024.

顯然，現在還處於年初，但對於我們經歷了艱難的 2024 年的客戶來說，這似乎是一個積極的證明點。

Can you add any additional color to what this means for farmers and equipment demand over the rest of the year?

您能否進一步解釋一下這對今年剩餘時間的農民和設備需求意味著什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

Sure thing, Josh.

當然可以，喬希。

Clearly, a positive headline with forecast up year over year, but it's important to break down how we get to that point.

顯然，預測結果同比上升是一個積極的信號，但重要的是分析我們如何達到這一點。

There are a number of positive data points this quarter, keeping in mind this is all within the context of a trough-level outlook for 2025.

本季有許多積極的數據點，請記住，這些都是在 2025 年低谷展望的背景下。

For starters, the recent rally in commodity prices has been fueled by both a cut in last season's US yield forecast, along with dryness in South America.

首先，近期大宗商品價格上漲的動力來自於美國上季產量預測下調以及南美洲乾旱。

Additionally, the USDA forecast for global ending stocks of corn, soy, and wheat declined over 10% during the quarter as stocks to use retreated.

此外，由於可用庫存減少，美國農業部預測本季全球玉米、大豆和小麥期末庫存將下降 10% 以上。

This provides some benefit for our customers as they market last year's strong harvest.

這為我們的客戶銷售去年豐收的作物帶來了一些好處。

On the input side, farmers are continuing to see a decline in input costs for the third consecutive year.

在投入方面，農民的投入成本連續第三年下降。

Further tailwinds this quarter came via $10 billion in additional US support for farmers, as you noticed.

正如您所注意到的，本季的進一步利好來自於美國為農民額外提供的 100 億美元支持。

This assistance will offset some of the margin decline farmers saw in 2024, while potentially helping to relieve concerns around macro risk and high interest rates.

這項援助將抵消農民在 2024 年遭遇的部分利潤下降，同時可能有助於緩解對宏觀風險和高利率的擔憂。

But ultimately, we don't expect this to translate into immediate order velocity, as general uncertainty continues to persist.

但最終，我們預計這不會轉化為立即的訂單速度，因為普遍的不確定性仍然存在。

And customers remain cautious across all markets.

所有市場的客戶都保持謹慎。

Hey, this is Jepsen.

嘿，我是傑普森。

I think a takeaway here is the additional support from government payments will help buffer downside risk to farmers' balance sheets, as well as the overall industry outlook, following a multi-year decline in both farm net income and industry equipment demand.

我認為，這裡的要點是，在農場淨收入和行業設備需求連續多年下降之後，政府支付的額外支持將有助於緩衝農民資產負債表以及整個行業前景的下行風險。

Definitely, Josh.

當然，喬希。

And if we look globally, Brazil is another geography where farmers' sentiment continues to improve.

從全球來看，巴西是另一個農民情緒持續改善的地區。

The currency movement has been favorable, as a weakening real helps improve farm net incomes in the country.

貨幣走勢是有利的，因為雷亞爾貶值有助於提高該國的農場淨收入。

This is because commodity sales are primarily US dollar-denominated, while typically, around half of producer costs are in local currency.

這是因為商品銷售主要以美元計價，而通常約有一半的生產成本是以當地貨幣計算的。

It's still too early to call a market shift there, as we've yet to see the sentiment convert to a meaningful change in order velocity.

現在斷言市場已經轉變還為時過早，因為我們尚未看到情緒轉化為訂單速度的重大變化。

But it's a positive sign nonetheless.

但這仍然是一個積極的信號。

Finally, turning to Europe, the continued favorability we've seen in Dairy and Livestock is now supported by moderately better wheat prices and slightly lower input costs.

最後，轉向歐洲，我們看到乳製品和畜牧業持續的利好現在受到小麥價格適度上漲和投入成本略有下降的支持。

While markets overall remain contracted and pressured by lower yields and macro uncertainty, we've seen this improved sentiment translate to further stabilization in our order books.

儘管市場整體仍然萎縮，並受到較低收益率和宏觀不確定性的壓力，但我們已經看到這種情緒的改善轉化為訂單的進一步穩定。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬希。

Clearly, a dynamic global market, but overall sentiment seems to be improving its hinge.

顯然，全球市場充滿活力，但整體情緒似乎正在改善。

Now given this market backdrop, can you update us on the business and how we're managing through inventories and order books?

現在鑑於這樣的市場背景，您能否向我們介紹一下業務狀況以及我們如何透過庫存和訂單進行管理？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

As we discussed earlier, this quarter has really been about executing the plan as we continue to manage through this downturn.

正如我們之前所討論的，本季實際上一直在執行計劃，因為我們將繼續度過這次經濟低迷期。

Our setup entering 2025 was solid, as the underproduction of retail that we executed last year drove down field inventories and positioned us well across the globe for another challenging year in terms of in-market demand.

我們進入 2025 年的佈局是穩固的，因為去年零售業的產量不足導致現場庫存減少，並使我們在全球範圍內為又一個充滿市場需求挑戰的一年做好了準備。

As we walk around the world, let's start in North America.

當我們走遍世界時，讓我們從北美開始。

On the new inventory side, we ended the calendar year with Large Ag field inventory down 25% year over year and roughly 15% below pre-2020 averages.

在新庫存方面，我們在日曆年結束時的大型農業田間庫存年減了 25%，比 2020 年前的平均值低了約 15%。

In fact, we saw our 220-horsepower tractor inventory decline by nearly twice as much as the industry over the past year, allowing us, in partnership with our dealers, to continue our focus on reducing used tractor inventory.

事實上，我們發現，過去一年來，我們的 220 馬力拖拉機庫存下降幅度幾乎是行業平均水平的兩倍，這使我們能夠與經銷商合作，繼續致力於減少二手拖拉機庫存。

The industry backdrop remains challenged as we continue to expect demand declines across all Large Ag product lines in North America.

由於我們預計北美所有大型農業產品線的需求都會下降，產業背景仍面臨挑戰。

Our combine early order program closed a couple weeks ago and, compared to last year's EOP, was down more than our industry guide.

我們的聯合早期訂單計劃幾週前就結束了，與去年的 EOP 相比，其降幅超過了我們的行業指南。

Additionally, our rolling tractor order books continue to provide roughly five months of visibility, as they're now full late into our fiscal third quarter.

此外，我們的滾動拖拉機訂單簿繼續提供大約五個月的可見性，因為它們現在已經進入我們財政第三季末。

As a result, we're targeting to finish the year with new inventory in the US roughly unchanged year over year, reflecting our plan to produce in line with retail demand in the region.

因此，我們的目標是在今年年底時美國的新庫存與去年同期基本持平，這反映了我們根據該地區零售需求進行生產的計劃。

Shifting our focus to North American used equipment, we're starting to see early proof points supporting the operational and marketing decisions we've made over the past few quarters.

將我們的重點轉移到北美二手設備，我們開始看到支持我們過去幾季所做的營運和行銷決策的早期證據點。

Here, high-horsepower tractor use inventory peaked in November, and we've since seen two consecutive months of moderate unit declines, along with compression in auction-to-asking price spreads.

其中，大馬力拖拉機的庫存在 11 月達到頂峰，此後，我們看到連續兩個月出現適度的庫存下降，同時拍賣價與要價之間的價差也在縮小。

Notably, we've also seen two consecutive quarters of improvement in the percentage of late-model equipment that makes up Deere's used high-horsepower tractor population.

值得注意的是，我們還看到，迪爾二手大馬力拖拉機中新型設備的比例連續兩個季度有所提高。

Deere combine used inventory was up this quarter, in line with normal seasonal build, but down over 10% from the recent peak in spring 2024, and is currently sitting at around 60% of the prior cycle peak.

本季度，迪爾聯合收割機二手庫存有所增加，與正常的季節性增長一致，但較 2024 年春季的近期峰值下降了 10% 以上，目前約為前一個週期峰值的 60%。

While progress has been made, normalizing used inventory levels in North America, particularly in high-horsepower tractors, remains a top priority for the fiscal year.

雖然已經取得了進展，但使北美二手庫存水準（特別是大馬力拖拉機的庫存水準）正常化仍然是本財年的首要任務。

Hey.

嘿。

This is Jepsen, maybe one thing to add.

這是傑普森 (Jepsen)，也許需要補充一點。

I spent time last week with our dealer principals from the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

上週我與來自美國、加拿大、澳洲和紐西蘭的經銷商負責人進行了交談。

We have a high level of alignment and focus on reducing used inventories, and we feel confident in how we, collectively, Deere and dealers, have managed this downturn differently and note our more proactive response to get ahead of the market turning in 2024.

我們高度一致並致力於減少二手庫存，我們對我們（迪爾和經銷商）如何共同以不同的方式應對這次經濟衰退充滿信心，並注意到我們將採取更積極的反應以領先於 2024 年的市場轉變。

This enables them to continue investing in their ability to support customers' needs today and tomorrow.

這使他們能夠繼續投資於支援當前和未來客戶需求的能力。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬希。

Great to hear that feedback from the channel.

很高興收到來自該頻道的回饋。

Now continuing outside the US, we're seeing some bright spots in Brazil as the work we put in last year to bring down inventory levels has also resulted in a return to production levels in line with the industry demand.

現在繼續看美國以外，我們看到巴西的一些亮點，因為我們去年為降低庫存水準所做的努力也使生產水準恢復到了與行業需求相符的水準。

As previously noted, the one exception is combine, where we had a little more work to do in the first half of this fiscal year.

如同前面提到的，唯一的例外是聯合收割機，我們在本財年上半年還有很多工作要做。

With Brazilian harvest in January, the end of the calendar year is typically our strongest combine selling season.

由於巴西的一月份是收穫季節，所以年底通常是我們聯合收割機銷售最強勁的季節。

And to that end, we saw great progress in our combine inventory this quarter, with field levels down over 25% in the past three months and down nearly two-thirds since the end of fiscal 2023.

為此，本季我們的聯合庫存取得了巨大進展，過去三個月現場庫存下降了 25% 以上，自 2023 財年末以來下降了近三分之二。

Along with improving customer sentiment in the region, our strategic focus on tech adoption has been met with strong customer interest.

隨著該地區客戶情緒的改善，我們對技術採用的策略重點也得到了客戶的強烈關注。

During the quarter, over 1,500 Precision Ag Essentials kits were ordered in Brazil, along with over 1,200 orders for JDLink Boosts, our Starlink-supported satellite connectivity solution, which was just made fully available to the market for order a few weeks ago.

本季度，巴西訂購了超過 1,500 套 Precision Ag Essentials 套件，同時訂購了超過 1,200 套 JDLink Boosts（我們的 Starlink 支援的衛星連接解決方案），該解決方案幾週前剛剛全面向市場開放訂購。

We expect to see continued tech adoption in Brazil as connectivity expands within the region and customers are able to maximize the value of John Deere's Precision Ag solutions in the John Deere Operations Center.

隨著該地區連接性的擴大以及客戶能夠在約翰迪爾營運中心最大限度地發揮約翰迪爾精準農業解決方案的價值，我們預計巴西將繼續採用該技術。

Hey, this is Josh again.

嘿，我又是喬希。

One thing to add on top of the great progress Beal noted is our continued focus on investing in Brazil for Brazil.

比爾指出，除了取得巨大進展之外，還有一點需要補充，那就是我們將繼續致力於在巴西為巴西進行投資。

During the past quarter, we officially opened our Technology Development Center in the country, which we announced last year.

上個季度，我們正式在該國開設了技術開發中心，這是我們去年宣布的。

This space will enable us to develop and deliver solutions specifically suited for Brazil's tropical agriculture environment.

這個空間將使我們能夠開發和提供特別適合巴西熱帶農業環境的解決方案。

We also continue to enhance both dealer and customer support in Brazil.

我們也將繼續加強對巴西經銷商和客戶的支援。

Brazilian farmers are ramping up the horsepower curve while simultaneously integrating advanced technology and digital solutions into their operations.

巴西農民正在提高馬力曲線，同時將先進技術和數位解決方案融入他們的營運中。

We recognize this and are committed to supporting them on this journey.

我們認識到這一點，並致力於在這過程中為他們提供支持。

A quarter ago, we discussed the growth in engaged acres and highly engaged acres in South America.

一個季度前，我們討論了南美洲參與度和高度參與度土地的成長。

The combination of the equipment, technology, and connectivity we're delivering will support further growth in these metrics and, more importantly, lead to better outcomes for our customers.

我們提供的設備、技術和連接的組合將支持這些指標的進一步成長，更重要的是，為我們的客戶帶來更好的結果。

Hey.

嘿。

Great call out, Josh.

太棒了，喬希。

Okay, let's shift now to Construction and Forestry, which had a few unique aspects this quarter.

好的，現在讓我們轉到建築和林業，本季該行業有一些獨特的方面。

As you mentioned earlier, we discussed the roughly 50% production shutdown days we had planned in earthmoving as we proactively worked to reduce inventories and build order banks.

正如您之前提到的，我們討論了土方工程計劃的約 50% 的生產停工天數，因為我們積極努力減少庫存並建立訂單庫。

Josh Beal, could you provide an update on how that turned out, along with any broader market commentary for the year?

Josh Beal，您能否介紹一下最新情況以及今年更廣泛的市場評論？

Yeah.

是的。

No problem, Josh.

沒問題，喬希。

As you rightly noted, our first quarter in C&F was all about right-sizing inventories to ensure strong execution throughout the remainder of the year.

正如您正確指出的那樣，C&F 第一季的重點是調整庫存規模，以確保在今年剩餘時間內強勁執行。

To that extent, we underproduced retail demand by approximately 35% in the first quarter, resulting in an earthmoving inventory reduction of more than 15% over the past three months and nearly 30% in the prior two quarters combined.

因此，第一季我們的零售需求低於預期約 35%，導致過去三個月土方工程庫存減少超過 15%，前兩季合計減少近 30%。

In fact, this was more than we had initially anticipated as retail sales for compact construction came in better than expected at the end of the calendar year.

事實上，這超出了我們最初的預期，因為年底緊湊型建築的零售額比預期好。

We're encouraged by these results as they provide us with operational flexibility as earthmoving demand evolves throughout the remainder of the year.

這些結果令我們感到鼓舞，因為它們為我們提供了營運靈活性，因為土方工程需求將在今年剩餘時間內不斷變化。

Turning to the broader industry, we remain focused on supporting sales in a highly competitive North American market.

展望更廣泛的行業，我們仍然專注於支持競爭激烈的北美市場的銷售。

In markets remain strong with only around 50% of IIJA funds committed and equipment utilization reflecting the fact that construction employment is at record levels and continuing to rise.

市場仍然強勁，只有約 50% 的 IIJA 資金得到承諾，設備利用率反映出建築業就業率處於創紀錄水平並持續上升。

However, equipment purchases remain constrained given macro uncertainty and persistently high interest rates.

然而，由於宏觀不確定性和持續的高利率，設備購買仍然受到限制。

That said, we found success with selective incentive programs targeting specific products to drive sales.

儘管如此，我們發現針對特定產品的選擇性激勵計劃可以成功推動銷售。

Our road-building business continues to bolster the C&F segment as road-building is experiencing another year of strong market demand.

由於道路建設又經歷了強勁的市場需求，我們的道路建設業務繼續支撐 C&F 部門。

Tech investment and integration in this market continues to drive further customer value on top of an already robust value proposition.

該市場的技術投資和整合在原本就很強大的價值主張的基礎上繼續推動進一步的客戶價值。

We are excited to showcase our latest innovations in road-building at the upcoming [Bama] show in April.

我們很高興能在四月即將舉行的 [Bama] 展會上展示我們在道路建設方面的最新創新。

One final thought on the broader C&F segment.

關於更廣泛的 C&F 領域的最後一點想法。

Headwinds from strong price competition and unfavorable currency impacts are putting pressure on sales.

激烈的價格競爭和不利的貨幣影響給銷售帶來了壓力。

This has resulted in 1 point reduction to our net price realization forecast.

這導致我們的淨價格實現預測降低了1個百分點。

Although that negative margin impact is being offset by strong cost execution, leading to expectations for more favorable production costs this year than initially expected.

儘管強勁的成本執行抵消了負面的利潤率影響，但預計今年的生產成本將比最初預期的更加優惠。

It's important to note, however, that entry year, we will see an atypical quarterly cadence as price actions taken in the first half of the year will moderate in the third and fourth quarter as we ramp production in the back half of the year.

但值得注意的是，在進入新一年時，我們將看到一個非典型的季度節奏，因為隨著我們在下半年加大產量，上半年採取的價格行動將在第三季和第四季緩和。

That's great color, Josh, and good insight on the unique seasonality of the business this year.

喬希，這顏色真好看，而且對今年業務獨特的季節性有很好的見解。

Okay, shifting gears now, the last topic I'd like to cover is tariffs, obviously a dynamic and rapidly evolving situation.

好的，現在換個話題，我想談的最後一個話題是關稅，這顯然是一個動態且快速發展的情況。

What details can you provide on the issue, Josh?

喬希，你能提供關於這個問題的哪些詳細資訊？

Yeah, I'd start by reinforcing the statement you made.

是的，我首先要強調你的說法。

The situation is certainly fluid, and we continue to monitor changes in policy as they occur.

情況肯定是不斷變化的，我們會繼續監測政策的變化。

Teams across the organization are continually running potential scenarios to understand risks along with opportunities to mitigate these impacts.

整個組織的團隊都在不斷運行潛在情景，以了解風險以及減輕這些影響的機會。

But our primary focus remains on understanding how proposed tariffs may impact our customers' operations as we recognize their need for free and fair trade in ag commodities.

但我們的主要關注點仍然是了解擬議的關稅將如何影響我們客戶的運營，因為我們認識到他們需要農產品的自由和公平貿易。

This allows them to concentrate on growing crops that feed, fuel, and clothe the world.

這使得他們能夠集中精力種植為世界提供食物、燃料和衣服的農作物。

We remain committed to delivering the products and solutions they need to be productive and profitable as we've done for nearly 200 years.

正如我們近 200 年來所做的那樣，我們將繼續致力於提供他們所需的產品和解決方案，以提高生產力和獲利能力。

Within Deere's business, first, a reminder about our operational footprint.

在迪爾的業務範圍內，首先，提醒一下我們的營運足跡。

As you'll recall, we are a net exporter of Ag and Turf equipment from the US, and more than 75% of our domestic US sales are assembled at US manufacturing locations.

您可能還記得，我們​​是美國農業和草皮設備的淨出口國，我們在美國國內銷售的 75% 以上的產品都是在美國製造工廠組裝的。

Less than 5% of our US complete goods sales come from Mexico.

我們在美國整機銷售額中不到5%來自墨西哥。

And of the remaining products produced outside the US, the majority come from Europe, notably our 6-series tractors.

在美國以外生產的其餘產品中，大多數來自歐洲，尤其是我們的 6 系列拖拉機。

From an export perspective, over half of our exports serve our Canadian customers, with the remainder going to Europe, Brazil, and Australia.

從出口角度來看，我們一半以上的出口產品銷往加拿大客戶，其餘銷往歐洲、巴西和澳洲。

In terms of component sourcing, about 10% of our US manufacturing cost of goods sold come from Mexico, with less than 2% coming from China and approximately 1% from Canada.

在零件採購方面，我們美國製造產品銷售成本的約 10% 來自墨西哥，不到 2% 來自中國，約 1% 來自加拿大。

For the last several years, our teams have focused diligently on both supplier resiliency and cost management.

過去幾年來，我們的團隊一直致力於供應商彈性和成本管理。

The actions taken by our supply management team in response to pandemic disruptions, such as dual sourcing, strengthening relationships with key suppliers, are prime examples of the step function change our organization has made to build a more resilient and adaptable business.

我們的供應管理團隊為因應疫情所採取的行動，例如雙重採購、加強與關鍵供應商的關係，都是我們組織為建立更具彈性和適應性強的業務而進行的階梯式變革的典型例子。

This group works to manage and optimize our global trade flows, which position us well to navigate the current environment.

該團隊致力於管理和優化我們的全球貿易流動，使我們能夠很好地應對當前的環境。

And given the rapidly evolving nature of these tariffs, our guide does not contemplate the direct cost or economic benefit impacts resulting from potential future tariffs.

鑑於這些關稅的快速變化性質，我們的指南沒有考慮未來潛在關稅造成的直接成本或經濟效益影響。

It is important to know, however, that our exposure to the recently enacted China tariffs is expected to have an immaterial amount on our business.

然而，重要的是要知道，我們受到最近實施的中國關稅的影響預計對我們的業務影響微不足道。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬希。

Great update.

很棒的更新。

And before we open the line to questions, do you have any final comments you'd like to share?

在我們開始提問之前，您還有什麼要說的嗎？

Yeah, certainly.

是的，當然。

The first quarter was reflective of the focus that we maintain as a business despite significant internal pressures ranging from weak end market demand, more competitive environment, and macro uncertainty.

第一季的表現反映出，儘管我們面臨終端市場需求疲軟、競爭環境加劇和宏觀不確定性等巨大內部壓力，但我們仍然保持對業務的專注。

Despite all the noise, we maintain disciplined, executing to plan as we successfully brought down inventories while managing costs and operational expenses.

儘管有種種幹擾，我們仍然保持紀律，嚴格執行計劃，成功降低了庫存，同時管理了成本和營運費用。

We maintained our investment in the business, which continued to yield results as evidenced by our recent successes in Brazil, our autonomous solution announcements at CES last month, and our upcoming product launches at Bama in April.

我們維持對該業務的投資，並繼續取得成果，這從我們最近在巴西取得的成功、上個月在 CES 上發布的自動駕駛解決方案以及即將於 4 月在巴馬推出的產品可以看出。

I'm as excited as ever about the value we're unlocking for our customers across the world.

我對我們為全球客戶釋放的價值感到一如既往的興奮。

We also returned over $800 million in cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter, reflecting the structural improvements we've made this cycle over the last.

本季度，我們也透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了超過 8 億美元的現金，反映了我們在上個週期中取得的結構性改進。

I want to reiterate my utmost thanks to our entire team here at Deere, from employees to dealers to suppliers.

我要再次向迪爾的整個團隊，從員工到經銷商到供應商，表達最誠摯的感謝。

It takes dedication and hard work from every facet of the business to demonstrate this level of discipline.

要體現這種程度的紀律性，就需要企業各環節的奉獻與努力。

And we'll continue to execute to plan as we manage throughout the rest of the year and across the cycle.

我們將繼續按照計劃在今年剩餘時間和整個週期內進行管理。

We're as focused as ever on our steadfast commitment to our customers, and we'll continue prioritizing investment in the most value-added solutions for them.

我們一如既往地專注於對客戶的堅定承諾，並將繼續優先投資於對他們最具附加價值的解決方案。

We'll continue to expand our precision offerings across both product lines and geographies while ensuring we meet the basic needs of quality, uptime, and productivity for our customers.

我們將繼續擴大我們的產品線和地區的精密產品，同時確保滿足客戶對品質、正常運作時間和生產力的基本需求。

Our focus is solving our customers' toughest problems so they can focus on what matters most, building critical infrastructure and growing the crops that feed, fuel, and clothe the world.

我們的重點是解決客戶最棘手的問題，以便他們可以專注於最重要的事情，建立關鍵基礎設施和種植為世界提供食物、燃料和衣服的農作物。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬希。

Now let's open it up to questions from our investors.

現在讓我們來回答投資者的問題。

We're now ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call.

我們現在準備開始通話的問答部分。

The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure.

接線員將指導您進行投票程序。

(Event Instructions)

(活動須知)

Thank you.

謝謝。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Tim Thein, Raymond James.

（操作員指示）Tim Thein，Raymond James。

Maybe just some help in terms of Large Ag production cadence given the pushout that you called out for the first quarter.

考慮到您呼籲的第一季推遲，這也許對大型農業生產節奏有一些幫助。

How do we think about that normal seasonal ramp-up that you typically see in the second quarter and third quarter?

我們如何看待第二季和第三季通常出現的正常季節性成長？

Is that -- can you maybe just help us in terms of, is that going to be more weighted to the third quarter than usual?

您能否幫助我們，這是否會比平常更偏向第三季？

And just as we think about segmenting the remaining quarters, this would be a PPA question.

正如我們考慮劃分剩餘的季度一樣，這將是一個 PPA 問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Hey, Tim.

嘿，提姆。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I mean, I think as you think about Large Ag demand and shifting some of those shipments out to future years, it's still going to more or less follow normal seasonality for the business.

我的意思是，我認為當你考慮農業的大規模需求並將部分貨物轉移到未來幾年時，它或多或少仍會遵循正常的業務季節性。

As we look at the second quarter, it's still what we'd anticipate being the highest quarter for us in terms of sales, full-year guide for Large Ag being down 15% to 20%.

展望第二季度，我們預計這仍將是銷售額最高的一個季度，大型農業全年預期銷售額將下降 15% 至 20%。

Quarter over quarter, we'd expect that second quarter, year over year, compared to last quarter or last year's quarter, to be down more than the guide, so probably down more than the 15% to 20% that you're seeing in the full year.

與上一季或去年同期相比，我們預計第二季的環比成長將超過預期，因此可能比全年 15% 至 20% 的降幅還要大。

And that gets sequentially better as you go to Q3 and Q4 in terms of the year-over-year comps.

從年比來看，進入第三季和第四季，情況會逐漸好轉。

Yeah.

是的。

Tim, this is Josh Jepsen.

提姆，這是喬希·傑普森。

Maybe one thing I'd add, too.

也許我還想補充一點。

As you think about the sequence, Beal laid out how that plays out.

當你思考這個序列時，比爾 (Beal) 闡述了它是如何展開的。

I think for Production and Precision Ag as well as the rest of our businesses, we would expect fourth quarter, we're actually growing year over year because of some of the comps and actions we took.

我認為，對於生產和精準農業以及我們的其他業務而言，我們預計第四季度，由於我們採取的一些比較和行動，我們實際上將實現同比增長。

But we actually start to see increases year over year as we get to 4Q as well.

但實際上，當進入第四季時，我們也開始看到年成長。

Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

傑富瑞（Jefferies）的史蒂芬·福爾克曼（Stephen Volkmann）。

I'm curious.

我很好奇。

I think one of you, Josh, has mentioned that the early order program was below your industry forecast.

我想你們中的一個人，喬希，提到過早期訂單計劃低於行業預測。

And obviously, we saw some pretty weak numbers from AEM yesterday.

顯然，我們昨天看到了 AEM 的一些相當疲軟的數據。

And I'm just curious how you're thinking about having confidence in the bottoming process for the end market activity.

我只是好奇，您如何看待對終端市場活動的觸底過程的信心。

Because obviously, that'll drive what you need to do on the inventory side.

因為很明顯，這將推動你在庫存方面需要做的事情。

Yeah.

是的。

Hey, Steve.

嘿，史蒂夫。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

And maybe, I'll talk combines and then walk a little bit around the other product lines as well.

或許，我會談論聯合收割機，然後再稍微談論其他產品線。

As you recall, for North America, our guide for the industry is down

大家還記得，對於北美，我們的產業指南已經下降

[30].

[30]。

If you take product line by product line, sprayer EOP came in pretty close to that industry guide.

如果逐條查看產品線，噴霧器 EOP 與行業指南非常接近。

We're expecting tractors to be a little -- down a little bit less year over year, row crop tractors.

我們預計曳引機的產量年比會略有下降，行栽拖拉機的產量也會略有下降。

And the four-wheel drive tractors will be a little bit more than the guide.

而四輪驅動的拖拉機會比導遊稍微貴一點。

And as you mentioned, given the results of the combine early order program, we'd expect that to be down a little more than the guide as well.

正如您所提到的，考慮到聯合早期訂單計劃的結果，我們預計該數字也會比預期略低。

So we waited to get to that industry down 30, but a little bit of difference by product line.

因此，我們等待將該行業縮小 30%，但產品線略有不同。

Yeah.

是的。

As you saw in the quarter, and this is consistent with the shipment timing that we talked about, the EOP for combines booked a little more slowly this year than it has in the prior years.

正如您在本季度看到的那樣，這與我們談論的裝運時間一致，今年聯合收割機的 EOP 預訂速度比前幾年略慢一些。

And that resulted to a little bit slower ramp up for us in terms of combine shipments in Q1.

這導致我們第一季的綜合出貨量成長速度略有放緩。

I think that's reflective of the inventory levels that you're seeing for us as we talk about 11% inventory to sales for combines as it cools out the quarter.

我認為這反映了您所看到的庫存水平，因為我們談論的是聯合收割機的庫存與銷售額之比為 11%，因為本季度情況正在降溫。

That's a little lower than normal and really reflective of some of those delayed shipments.

這比正常水平略低，確實反映了一些貨物的延遲。

As you look to the full year, I think what gives us confidence is the combine early order program typically represents 90%-ish-plus of what we're going to build in a year.

展望全年，我認為讓我們有信心的是，綜合早期訂單計劃通常占我們一年生產總量的 90% 以上。

So we have those orders locked in.

因此我們已經鎖定了這些訂單。

It's just a matter of when we laid those in the schedules.

這只是我們何時將其納入計劃的問題。

And so pretty good visibility there.

那裡的能見度相當好。

Again, it was just a timing with Q1.

再次強調，這只是與 Q1 的時間安排有關。

Steve, this is Jepsen.

史蒂夫，這是傑普森。

Maybe one thing to add on the use side.

也許在使用方面需要增加一件事。

Combines, we saw combines start to turn earlier.

聯合收割機，我們看到聯合收割機更早開始轉動。

July of '24 was where we saw the highest inventory level on combines, and that worked down over the course of the year.

24 年 7 月是聯合收割機庫存水準最高的一年，而這一水準在一年內逐漸下降。

We see a little bit of seasonal build there, but I think we were probably earlier on actions as it related to combines.

我們看到那裡有一些季節性的建設，但我認為我們可能會更早採取與聯合收割機相關的行動。

And I feel good about the progress we're making to pull that down.

我對我們為降低這項成本所取得的進展感到非常高興。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

I'm wondering if you could just expand on the comments that you shared on the Precision Ag update.

我想知道您是否可以擴展您在 Precision Ag 更新中分享的評論。

You gave us the progress in Brazil.

您向我們介紹了巴西的進展。

Can you just talk about globally expectations for Ag Essentials and [Sins Prayer Kits] for this year, what progress was like in the quarter, and also, if you wouldn't mind, just updating us on the engaged and highly engaged acres, if you have that?

您能否談談今年全球對 Ag Essentials 和 [Sins Prayer Kits] 的期望，本季度的進展如何，此外，如果您不介意的話，請向我們更新一下參與度和高度參與度的土地情況，如果有的話？

Yeah, great.

是的，很棒。

Thanks for the question, Jerry.

謝謝你的提問，傑瑞。

Yeah, I mean, Precision Ag Essentials, which -- recall, as you think about our tech stack, Precision Ag Essentials is really the foundation of the tech stack.

是的，我的意思是精準農業要素，回想一下，當您考慮我們的技術堆疊時，精準農業要素實際上是技術堆疊的基礎。

It's those core elements of guidance, of connectivity, and high powered onboard compute, and the bundle that we've created with Precision Ag Essentials, a lower upfront cost and an annual subscription for that -- for the benefit of that technology.

這些核心要素包括指導、連接和高效能機載運算，以及我們透過 Precision Ag Essentials 創建的捆綁包、較低的前期成本和年度訂閱費用——以享受該技術的好處。

I recall we introduced this package last year in 2024 in North America, really strong reception to that, about 8,000 units that we retailed.

我記得我們去年（2024 年）在北美推出了這個套裝，反應非常熱烈，零售了約 8,000 台。

Average age of the equipment that those units were being put on was 2012.

這些部隊所用設備的平均使用年資是 2012 年。

So we were going deeper in the fleet in terms of connecting people into the Deere ecosystem.

因此，我們在將人們融入迪爾生態系統方面正在更深入地了解車隊。

So we were really encouraged this year.

所以今年我們確實受到了鼓舞。

I think we had a limited release in Brazil in 2024 for Precision Ag Essentials, but more fully available in 2025.

我認為我們將於 2024 年在巴西限量發售 Precision Ag Essentials，但將於 2025 年全面上市。

And we've been really encouraged by the results.

結果確實讓我們備受鼓舞。

As I mentioned, over 1,500 orders year to date in Brazil for that Precision Ag Essentials base.

正如我所提到的，今年迄今為止，Precision Ag Essentials 基地在巴西的訂單已超過 1,500 份。

On top of that, just in the middle of January, we made our Starlink-enabled JDLink Boost solution available in the region in Brazil.

除此之外，就在一月中旬，我們在巴西地區推出了支援 Starlink 的 JDLink Boost 解決方案。

And recall that connectivity is a big challenge for our customers in country there.

回想一下，連接對於我們該國的客戶來說是一個巨大的挑戰。

We'd estimate about 70% of Ag land in Brazil doesn't have sufficient sell.

我們估計巴西約 70% 的農業用地沒有充分出售。

And we've seen really, really strong take rates early on in those couple weeks since that ordering has opened up.

自從訂單開放以來，我們在前幾週就看到了非常非常強勁的接受率。

Again, we mentioned over 1,200 orders.

我們再次提到了超過 1,200 個訂單。

I think there were like 500 orders in the first day for the solution.

我認為解決方案第一天就收到了大約 500 個訂單。

And so very, very encouraging and excited for the value that's going to unlock for our customers in terms of enabling that connectivity and enabling them to take advantage of Precision Ag Solutions.

我們非常高興和興奮，因為我們將為客戶帶來連接性，並使他們能夠利用精準農業解決方案所帶來的價值。

On engaged acres, maybe just to talk about the numbers, we're over 455 million globally year over year.

就耕地面積而言，也許只是談論數字，我們全球耕地面積逐年超過 4.55 億。

That's up about 15%.

這上漲了約 15%。

South American growth is greater.

南美洲的成長更為顯著。

It's up about 20% year over year.

與去年同期相比，成長了約 20%。

Really, where we're encouraged is on the highly engaged side where we saw growth over 30% year over year.

確實，讓我們感到鼓舞的是，在高度參與的方面，我們看到同比增長超過 30％。

And highly engaged acres now are making up nearly 30% of our engaged acres -- our highly engaged.

目前，高度參與的土地面積已占我們參與土地面積的近 30%——我們的高度參與。

And just a reminder, highly engaged acres has more depth and breadth of utilization, covering more production steps with your technology.

需要提醒的是，高度利用的土地具有更大的利用深度和廣度，可以用您的技術覆蓋更多的生產步驟。

Hey, Jerry.

嘿，傑瑞。

This is Jepsen.

這是傑普森。

Maybe a couple adds.

或許還會添加一些。

I mean, we are continuing to see technology as a driver of competitive advantage and what we're able to do from a conversion perspective.

我的意思是，我們繼續將技術視為競爭優勢的驅動力，以及從轉換的角度我們所能做的事情。

And we had an example from our field team this quarter of where we put essentially Precision Ag Essentials a year ago on non-competitive machines, call it 20 competitive machines; brought them in to connectivity; brought them into the digital side from an operation center perspective.

本季度，我們的現場團隊舉了一個例子，我們一年前將 Precision Ag Essentials 應用於非競爭性機器，也就是 20 台競爭性機器；將它們帶入連通性；從營運中心的角度將它們帶入數位化領域。

And this year, we're converting them.

今年，我們正在對它們進行改造。

We're converting them from competitive machines with Deere Tech to Deere machines.

我們正在將它們從採用 Deere Tech 的競爭機器轉換為 Deere 機器。

So I think we're seeing that at a high level being a difference maker for customers in terms of what is pulling them into Deere and the value they see from that.

所以我認為，從高層次來看，這對客戶來說是一個不同的因素，即是什麼吸引他們選擇迪爾，以及他們從中看到了什麼價值。

And I think we're also seeing even things that may be overlooked a little bit, like remote display access, the ability for our dealers to remote in -- not have to go to the machine, but remote in and take care of them.

而且我認為我們還看到了一些可能被忽視的事情，例如遠端顯示訪問，我們的經銷商可以遠端控制 - 不必去機器，而是遠端控制並處理它們。

We've seen significant growth in just the instances of our dealers doing that.

僅從我們的經銷商這樣做的例子就可以看出顯著的成長。

And we had an anecdote, talking to a dealer a month or so ago, talking about sitting at home on the couch and actually fixing an issue for a customer because they had remote display.

大約一個月前，我們曾聽過一個軼事，當時我們和一位經銷商正在交談，談到坐在家裡的沙發上為客戶解決問題，因為他們有遠端顯示器。

So I think these are big and small things, but they're all making a really important impact as we think about real technology that's having real impact for the customer.

所以我認為這些都是大事和小事，但當我們考慮到對客戶產生真正影響的真正技術時，它們都會產生非常重要的影響。

And we're seeing that start to build even greater.

我們看到它開始變得更強大。

And just to maybe just to put a bow on that remote display, in 2024, we had 2.5 million remote display sessions through the John Deere operation center.

也許只是為了遠端顯示器做一個補充，到 2024 年，我們透過 John Deere 營運中心進行了 250 萬次遠端顯示器。

That was an 85% increase from two years prior.

這比兩年前增加了 85%。

So again, our ability to better serve our customers through connectivity is huge.

所以，我們透過連結更好地服務客戶的能力是巨大的。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

My question is going to be on farmer profitability and demand.

我的問題是關於農民的獲利能力和需求。

And I know that parts of this may be hard to answer, but I'm just curious as to whatever insight you can offer.

我知道其中某些部分可能很難回答，但我只是好奇您能提供的見解。

Obviously, your early order programs, I guess, are a combination of your end farmer professional, big professional farmer demand, and dealers trying to balance out trade-ins and all that stuff.

顯然，我猜想您的早期訂單計劃是最終專業農民、大型專業農民的需求以及試圖平衡以舊換新的經銷商等因素的結合。

I suspect your biggest farmers probably still want to buy more than you're making.

我認為你們最大的農民可能仍想購買比你們生產的更多的產品。

I don't know if you have any thoughts on how profitable those biggest first buyer customers are right now at current corn and soy and cotton prices.

我不知道您是否想過，在目前的玉米、大豆和棉花價格下，那些最大的首批購買者客戶的獲利能力有多強。

And I don't know if you have any thoughts on where your used profit -- your used buyers really need corn to make it easy to be before they're profitable and able to clear out some of the inventory.

我不知道您是否想過您的二手商品利潤來自哪裡——您的二手商品買家確實需要玉米，這樣他們才能輕鬆獲利並清理部分庫存。

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, maybe a couple of points there, Rob.

我的意思是，也許有幾點，羅布。

I think it's hard to pin an exact number on this because every operation is a little bit different.

我認為很難確定一個確切的數字，因為每個操作都有點不同。

And it matters whether you own all your land or whether you rent all your land.

而你是否擁有全部土地或是否租賃全部土地則很重要。

And as you look at breakeven prices compared to like 100% owned versus 50%, that can -- it's like a $0.50 per bushel difference on corn breakeven, depending on if you fully own or you're renting 50%.

當您將 100% 擁有與 50% 擁有的盈虧平衡價格進行比較時，您會發現——玉米盈虧平衡點每蒲式耳的差額為 0.50 美元，具體取決於您是完全擁有還是租用 50%。

Similarly, the amount of technology that you're utilizing on the farm can matter a lot in terms of profitability as well.

同樣，農場所使用的技術的數量對盈利能力也有很大影響。

We recently published our business impact report.

我們最近發布了我們的業務影響報告。

And in that report, we did an update on the value that if you employed all Deere available solutions in a typical corn and soy operation in the Midwest, what value that would bring.

在該報告中，我們對價值進行了更新：如果在中西部典型的玉米和大豆種植中採用所有 Deere 可用的解決方案，將會帶來什麼價值。

And it was just under $0.50 a bushel of improved profitability by fully employing the Deere production or the solution set.

透過充分利用 Deere 的生產或解決方案，每蒲式耳的獲利能力提高了近 0.50 美元。

So there can be some pretty massive differences in terms of breakeven in terms of the size of your operation, how much you rent and own, how much technology you're using.

因此，在經營規模、租賃和自有資產數量、使用技術程度等方面，損益平衡點可能會有很大差異。

So it's hard to put a number on it.

所以很難給一個數字。

I think what I would say is over the course of the quarter, we feel good about what the positives that we saw.

我想說的是，在本季度，我們對所看到的正面因素感到滿意。

Certainly, we saw a rebound in commodity prices.

當然，我們看到了大宗商品價格的反彈。

We've got corn futures hanging around $5 now.

目前玉米期貨價格徘徊在 5 美元左右。

Certainly, the government support that was announced prior to the holidays is beneficial as well.

當然，假期前宣布的政府支持措施也是有益的。

So net-net, quarter over quarter, we've seen some pickup in the fundamentals.

因此，淨利潤與上季相比，我們看到基本面有所回升。

Yeah.

是的。

Rob, this is Jepsen.

羅布，這是傑普森。

I think just to add and maybe double-click into what Josh mentioned, I mean, quarter over quarter, we've seen the Ag fundamentals improved.

我認為只是補充一下，也許雙擊一下 Josh 提到的內容，我的意思是，每個季度我們都看到農業基本面有所改善。

Global consumption is outpacing global supply for grains and oilseeds, first time in four years.

四年來，全球穀物和油籽消費量首次超過全球供應量。

If we look at grain stocks to use, and particularly if you take out the stocks in China, it's the lowest level in 20 years.

如果我們看糧食庫存，特別是如果除去中國的庫存，這是20年來的最低水準。

So we're seeing really tight stocks as you look at corn and wheat in particular.

因此，我們看到玉米和小麥的庫存確實非常緊張。

And I think that's a favorable setup.

我認為這是一個有利的設置。

And then on top of that, you talk about some of the things that Josh mentioned in terms of an increase in net income expectations from USDA.

除此之外，您還談到了喬希提到的有關美國農業部淨收入預期增加的一些事情。

So I think the backdrop and the sentiment is improved, but you still have an impact of uncertainty as it relates to macro, uncertainty as it relates to trade policy.

因此，我認為背景和情緒有所改善，但仍受到宏觀不確定性、貿易政策不確定性的影響。

But I think the underlying business, as you look at dairy and livestock, which we mentioned already, which are at relatively strong levels, are holding in really well and better than what we would have seen just three months ago.

但我認為，正如我們已經提到的乳製品和畜牧業基礎業務處於相對強勁的水平，保持得非常好，比我們三個月前看到的要好。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

傑米庫克（Jamie Cook），Truist Securities。

I guess one question.

我想問一個問題。

Just wanted to understand better your view on Deere's performance, margin performance, given where we are in the cycle relative to the 20% mid-cycle target.

只是想更了解您對 Deere 業績、利潤率表現的看法，考慮到我們目前所處的周期相對於 20% 的中期目標的位置。

And I guess, Jepsen, just your confidence level -- obviously, I think everyone's confident 2025 is the trough -- your view on climbing out of this in 2026.

我想，傑普森，只是你的信心水平——顯然，我認為每個人都相信 2025 年是低谷——你對 2026 年走出低谷的看法是什麼。

And if you didn't think we were climbing out of this in 2026, do you see the need for incremental restructuring?

如果您認為我們無法在 2026 年擺脫這種困境，您是否認為有必要進行漸進式重組？

Thanks, Jamie.

謝謝，傑米。

As it relates to where we are, difficult to say exactly where we are to try to make a prediction on what '26 holds.

因為這與我們現在的處境有關，很難確切地說出我們目前所處的位置，並試圖預測 26 年將會發生什麼。

I would say we're really focused on what are the things that we can control as it relates to managing inventory levels, managing production, and keeping our arms around the operating cost of the business while funding the strategically important things.

我想說，我們真正關注的是我們可以控制的事情，包括管理庫存水準、管理生產，以及在為具有戰略意義的事情提供資金的同時控制業務的營運成本。

And we feel like we're in a good spot there.

我們感覺我們目前處於一個很好的位置。

We're able to do that.

我們能夠做到這一點。

We're essentially flat on R&D when we're making room elsewhere in the cost structure.

當我們在成本結構的其他地方騰出空間時，我們的研發支出基本上持平。

Those are the pieces that we can control and that we're working to manage.

這些都是我們可以控制並且正在努力管理的部分。

And stepping back as it relates to our longer-term goal of 20% of mid-cycle, this level of performance, this guide, if you look at the equipment operations, where we're at, call it just below 15%, 14.5% operating margin, we feel good about where that puts us in terms of progressing towards that goal.

退一步來說，這與我們的長期目標 20% 的中期週期相關，這個性能水平，這個指南，如果你看看設備運營，我們現在所處的位置，略低於 15%，14.5% 的營業利潤率，我們對朝著這個目標前進感到很滿意。

And again, just to juxtapose that versus how we performed even in the peak of our last cycle, comparing where we are below trough levels, below 80% by our own math, I call it 14.5%, 15%.

再說一次，只是為了與我們在上一個週期高峰期的表現進行對比，比較我們低於谷底水平的位置，根據我們自己的計算，低於 80%，我稱之為 14.5%、15%。

That's better than we performed at the peak of the cycle in 2013.

這比我們在 2013 年周期高峰期的表現要好。

So we feel good about that progress, feel good about the ability to continue investing, and doing a lot of work on an ongoing basis, day-to-day, on the cost side of the business.

因此，我們對這一進展感到滿意，對繼續投資以及在業務成本方面持續、日常地做大量工作的能力感到滿意。

Stephen Fisher, UBS.

瑞銀的史蒂芬費雪。

Josh Jepsen, I think you mentioned feeling good about the amount of reductions you've had in the used inventory during the quarter.

Josh Jepsen，我想你提到對本季二手庫存的減少量感到滿意。

Is there any way to help us quantify just how much used inventory is out there, how much excess you have relative to the target levels, and how long you think it would take to manage down to what the target levels would be?

有什麼方法可以幫助我們量化到底有多少二手庫存，相對於目標水準有多少過剩庫存，以及您認為需要多長時間才能降至目標水準？

Hey, Steve.

嘿，史蒂夫。

It's Josh Beal.

是喬許·比爾。

I'll start, and then, Jepsen, you can jump in.

我先開始，然後傑普森你就可以加入。

Yeah, I mean, I think as you characterize where we are on the used side, I mean -- maybe first, Jepsen mentioned this earlier, but we feel really good about combines.

是的，我的意思是，我認為正如您所描述我們在使用方面的情況一樣，我的意思是 - 也許首先，傑普森之前提到過這一點，但我們對聯合收割機感覺非常好。

We did a lot of work on combines earlier in the cycle, and they're sitting at a much better position.

我們在周期早期對聯合收割機做了很多工作，現在它們的地位要好得多。

As we think about high-horsepower tractors where there's still work to do, we feel good about the progress that we saw in the last quarter.

當我們想到大馬力拖拉機仍有工作要做時，我們對上個季度看到的進展感到滿意。

As we mentioned in the comments, a couple months sequentially of unit decline, relatively modest declines.

正如我們在評論中提到的那樣，單位數量幾個月來連續下降，降幅相對溫和。

I think we're down maybe 3% from the November peak.

我認為我們可能比 11 月的峰值下降了 3%。

But I think more important and probably the bigger challenge right now in high-horsepower use is that mix of used equipment, again, being still more heavily skewed towards one- and two-year-old equipment.

但我認為，目前更重要的、可能也是大馬力設備使用中更大的挑戰是，二手設備的組合仍然嚴重偏向一到兩年舊的設備。

And again, we've made progress over the last couple quarters on improving that mix.

過去幾個季度，我們在改善這一組合方面取得了進展。

We saw some improvement in our fourth quarter of '24.

我們在24年第四季看到了一些改善。

We've seen incremental improvement in the first quarter of '25.

我們在25年第一季看到了逐步的改善。

But it's still higher than it should be, probably on a percentage basis, probably 2x the number of one- and two-year-old equipment than we would normally want in that population or would normally see.

但以百分比計算，這個數字仍然高於實際水平，可能是我們通常希望或通常會看到的一到兩年舊設備數量的兩倍。

And so continue to work to do there, and we'll continue to focus on that through the course of the year.

因此，我們會繼續努力，並會在今年繼續關注這一點。

I would expect it'll be the next several quarters still as we continue to drive that down.

我預計在接下來的幾個季度我們仍會繼續壓低這一數字。

Yeah, Steve.

是的，史蒂夫。

This is Jepsen.

這是傑普森。

I think the other thing that we're looking at is how can we, one, shrink the duration, but how can we make this get through this reduction faster?

我認為我們正在考慮的另一件事是，一方面，我們如何縮短持續時間，但另一方面，我們如何更快地完成這項減少？

And that -- I think the actions we took on the new side are helping us to do that, to get focused on use quicker than we did last cycle.

而且——我認為我們在新的方面採取的行動正在幫助我們做到這一點，使我們比上一個週期更快地集中精力使用。

I think the other thing, too, when we look at fleet age, I think this is important as we think about replenishment or replacement over time.

我認為另一件事也是，當我們考慮船隊年齡時，這一點很重要，因為我們會考慮隨著時間的推移進行補充或更換。

We're still aging out.

我們仍在老去。

So high-horsepower tractors, four-wheel-drive tractors, combines are all getting older on a fleet age perspective.

因此，從車隊年齡的角度來看，大馬力拖拉機、四輪驅動拖拉機、聯合收割機都在老化。

And I think that's reflective of we put much less new equipment into the market when things were on the way up, '21, '22, '23.

我認為這反映出，在21、22、23年經濟情勢好轉時，我們投入市場的新設備要少得多。

But that aging, I think, will also help us as we think about how do we turn some of that used because replacement needs will continue just because we're seeing more age, more hours on the fleet.

但我認為，老化也會對我們有幫助，因為我們正在思考如何將其中一些二手車輛轉換成新車輛，因為我們看到車隊的年齡越來越大，運行時間越來越長，因此更換的需求將繼續存在。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

大衛·拉索（David Raso），Evercore ISI。

I just want to make sure I understand North American new inventory commentary.

我只是想確保我了解北美新庫存評論。

I mean, essentially, you said by calendar year-end, not your fiscal, the Large Ag field inventory was down 25% year-over-year.

我的意思是，基本上，您說的是，到日曆年末，而不是財政年末，大型農業領域庫存同比下降了 25％。

And then you're saying you're targeting to finish the year -- I assume that was a fiscal year comment, that the US inventory new will be unchanged year-over-year.

然後你說你的目標是在今年年底之前——我認為這是對財政年度的評論，美國新庫存將與去年同期相比保持不變。

So does that mean do we not plan to reduce any more new inventory from this point forward for the year?

那麼，這是否意味著從今年現在開始我們不再計劃減少新庫存了？

Or are we done reducing in North America for new?

或者說，我們已經完成了北美地區新產品的削減？

Yes.

是的。

I mean I think the way, David -- and you're right.

我的意思是，我認為，大衛——你是對的。

I mean the comment around unchanged relates fiscal year to fiscal year.

我的意思是圍繞不變的評論與財政年度相關。

And so book ending the fiscal year, our plan and our focus is on building in line with retail demand.

因此，在財政年度結束時，我們的計劃和重點是根據零售需求進行建造。

And so you should see absolute units of Deere field inventory relatively unchanged at the end of fiscal '25 from where we ended fiscal '24.

因此，您應該會看到，25 財年末，迪爾現場庫存的絕對單位與 24 財年末相比相對沒有變化。

Now there's always normal seasonality in our inventory build.

現在我們的庫存建設總是存在著正常的季節性。

And so as you think about through the course of the year, you're going to build tractor inventory, you're going to build combined inventory in the first, second quarter of the year, and then you'll start to drive that down in the back half of the year.

因此，當您考慮全年時，您將建立拖拉機庫存，您將在第一季和第二季建立綜合庫存，然後您將在下半年開始降低庫存。

That's just normal shipping.

這只是正常的運輸。

And candidly, a lot of in-transit inventory.

坦白說，有很多在途庫存。

As you'll recall, a significant piece of our Large Ag equipment is already retail sold.

您可能還記得，我們​​很大一部分的大型農業設備已經零售。

And so it's passed through the dealers and you have that in-transit inventory.

因此，它會通過經銷商，然後你就會有在途庫存。

But yes, the bookings there is going to build in line with retail in North America in 2025, and you should see absolute levels of inventory relatively unchanged year-over-year.

但是的，到 2025 年，那裡的預訂量將與北美的零售量保持一致，而且您應該會看到庫存的絕對水準比去年同期相對沒有變化。

I was just trying to

我只是想

--

--

Yeah, go ahead.

嗯，請說。

Well, I just wanted to make sure that the row-crop tractor data in the first quarter -- and given the seasonality, I'm comparing this versus traditional first quarter, so I understand the seasonality to build.

好吧，我只是想確保第一季的農作物拖拉機數據——考慮到季節性，我將其與傳統的第一季進行比較，所以我了解要建立的季節性。

The row crop inventory does seem a bit high relative to history for where we are in the year.

相對於今年的歷史水平，行栽作物的庫存量確實顯得有點高。

I think four-wheel drives combines, I appreciate you probably can produce at retail the rest of the year.

我認為四輪驅動相結合，我知道你可能在今年剩餘時間可以進行零售生產。

But the row crops, is there no further reduction needed there?

但對於行栽作物來說，難道不需要進一步減少嗎？

I just want to make sure I understand the math of the 34% on tractors.

我只是想確保我理解拖拉機 34% 的數學運算。

Yes.

是的。

David, this is Jepsen.

大衛，這是傑普森。

Fair question.

公平地問一下。

And to remind you, that number is 100-horsepower and above.

提醒您，該數字是 100 匹馬力以上。

So that's a wide category.

這是一個很廣泛的類別。

We think about large high-horsepower above 220.

我們考慮220以上的大馬力。

And what we see there is really kind of a tale of two stories or two markets in that regard.

從這個角度來看，我們看到的其實是兩個故事或兩個市場的故事。

220 and above, we feel good about where we're at.

220以上，我們對目前的狀況感到很滿意。

We're actually below where we would be on our averages. if you look at our 10-year average, we're probably slightly below from an inventory to sales perspective.

事實上，我們的水平低於平均水平。如果你看一下我們的 10 年平均值，從庫存到銷售的角度看，我們可能略低於這個水平。

We are higher, and probably higher than where we want to be when it comes to, call it, that mid-series midsized tractor, 6000 Series tractor, that inventory is higher.

我們的庫存較高，可能比我們想要的更高，比如說中型系列拖拉機、6000 系列拖拉機，庫存較高。

As a result, we are underproducing that.

結果是，我們的產量不足。

So essentially, Mannheim will underproduce North America for those tractors.

因此從本質上來說，曼海姆將無法滿足北美市場對這些拖拉機的產量要求。

So I think there's -- that 100-plus is a big category.

所以我認為 100 以上是一個很大的類別。

The Large Ag side, the AR side.

大Ag側，AR側。

We feel good about where we're at.

我們對目前的狀況感到很滿意。

Like I said, slightly below kind of the historical IS ratios for this point in the year.

就像我說的，略低於今年此時的歷史 IS 比率。

But we've got work to do over really the balance of the year on, call it, the 6000 series to pull that down closer to where we want to be.

但我們在今年餘下的時間裡還有很多工作要做，我們可以將 6000 系列的目標拉近到我們想要的水平。

But when we saw the growth quarter-on-quarter, that's really where it occurred and then not necessarily on the row-crop side.

但當我們看到季度環比增長時，情況確實如此，而且不一定是在行栽作物方面。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的克里斯汀歐文。

Just given some of the positive comments that you had on Brazil, I'm wondering if you can give us a sense of what your expectations are for any sort of improved volume recovery or even price recovery?

鑑於您對巴西的一些積極評價，我想知道您是否可以告訴我們，您對銷量回升甚至價格回升有何期望？

Just a little bit of a more granular look at what's happening down there.

稍微詳細地看一下那裡發生的事。

Kristen, thanks for the question.

克里斯汀，謝謝你的提問。

Yes, I mean, as you heard in the comments, we're seeing some green shoots out of the region.

是的，我的意思是，正如您在評論中所聽到的，我們看到該地區出現了一些復甦跡象。

I think the profitability is looking better there in 2025.

我認為 2025 年的獲利能力會更好。

And certainly, we're seeing favorability on the tech adoption side as well.

當然，我們也看到了技術採用的有利情況。

Recall in Brazil, we have less visibility in terms of the order book.

回想一下在巴西，我們的訂單量不太明顯。

We typically run about a three-month order book.

我們的訂單通常持續約三個月。

So a little bit less visibility in the full year.

因此，全年的可見度會稍微低一些。

So we'll see how it plays out.

我們將看看結果如何。

But there's been some optimism.

但也存在一些樂觀情緒。

We've seen some strength kind of in that small to mid tractor space as well in the region, as Josh Rohleder talked about, some strong sentiment in the coffee side.

我們看到該地區中小型拖拉機領域也表現出一定實力，正如 Josh Rohleder 談到的，咖啡方面的情緒也十分強烈。

And so there's some positives there that we're seeing.

因此我們看到了一些積極的跡象。

As it relates to price, we're seeing favorability there as well.

就價格而言，我們也看到了有利因素。

We had favorable positive low single-digit price realization in the quarter.

本季度，我們實現了良好的正低個位數價格實現。

We're expecting to be positive for the full year.

我們預計全年業績將保持積極態勢。

That's a good contrast to last year where we were -- we had negative price as we drove down field inventories.

這與去年的情況形成了鮮明對比——由於現場庫存減少，我們出現了負價格。

Now that we rightsized the inventory situation in Brazil and are seeing some of these positive hints of optimism in terms of how that market plays out, we're seeing a lot more strength on the pricing side as well.

現在我們已經調整了巴西的庫存情況，並且看到了該市場發展的一些積極樂觀的跡象，我們也看到定價方面的強勁勢頭。

Thanks, Kristen.

謝謝，克里斯汀。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略 (Angel Castillo)。

Just wanted to maybe revisit price question, but a little bit more broadly for PPA.

只是想重新討論價格問題，但對於 PPA 來說稍微廣泛一點。

You reiterated the 1% realization for that segment for this year.

您重申了今年該部分實現 1% 的成長率。

I was just wondering, as you think about the incentives or maybe what needs to be done to support the continued reduction of used inventories, as well as just any other kind of ongoing incentives there, can you just talk about the level of confidence that in that plus 1%?

我只是想知道，當您考慮激勵措施或可能需要採取哪些措施來支持二手庫存的持續減少，以及任何其他類型的持續激勵措施時，您能否談談對此加上 1% 的信心水平？

And then similarly on the construction side, you lowered that to flat this quarter or, I guess, for the full year.

同樣，在建築方面，你把這個數字降低到本季的水平，或者我猜，全年的水平持平。

Can you talk about there as well, the level of confidence that actually being flat now versus perhaps some of the competitive dynamics you're seeing to kind of drive and move volume in that segment?

您能否也談談目前實際持平的信心水平與您看到的一些競爭動態如何推動和移動該領域的銷量？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Thanks for the question, Angel.

謝謝你的提問，Angel。

Starting with Large Ag, again, as you mentioned, our full year guide is 1%.

從大型農業開始，正如您所提到的，我們的全年指導價是 1%。

And that contemplates additional incentives to help support the used market.

並考慮採取額外激勵措施來幫助支持二手市場。

You'll recall, North America as an example, list price increases or Early Order Programs on tractors will range from 2% to 3% for the year.

您會記得，以北美為例，拖拉機的標價上漲或早期訂單計劃的年度漲幅將在 2% 至 3% 之間。

The net price realization of one contemplates some additional contributions on incentives to pool funds to help support that used market.

其中一個淨價實現考慮了一些額外的貢獻，以激勵匯集資金來幫助支持二手市場。

We feel good about where pool fund balances are.

我們對資金池餘額的狀況感到滿意。

There are still at levels that are supportive of moving that market, getting it back to equilibrium.

仍有一些水準可以支持市場發展，使其恢復平衡。

And so based on the visibility we have in the order books, based on the early order programs and the dynamic of that price guide incorporating those additional incentives for the used market, we feel really good about the price guide in Large Ag.

因此，根據我們在訂單簿中的可見性，基於早期的訂單計劃以及結合二手市場額外激勵措施的價格指南動態，我們對大型農業的價格指南感到非常滿意。

On the construction and forestry side, yes, I mean, as you saw in the quarter, negative price in the quarter.

在建築和林業方面，是的，我的意思是，正如您在本季看到的，本季的價格為負。

We have seen more price pressure there.

我們看到那裡的價格壓力越來越大。

And then as a result, we lowered the full year guide from a point down to flat.

因此，我們將全年預期從一個點下調至持平。

We see some -- and by the way, on those incentives, too, we saw that in the quarter translate to some positive retail movement.

我們看到了一些——順便說一句，這些激勵措施也在本季度轉化為了一些積極的零售活動。

Particularly in compact construction, some lower rate financing in those.

特別是在緊湊型建築中，有一些較低的利率融資。

We're very strong in terms of moving sales.

我們在搬家銷售方面實力非常強大。

We had a really, really strong December based on some of those programs.

基於其中一些計劃，我們 12 月的表現非常非常強勁。

We're going to expect to just given dynamics in the market, we'll probably see some continued price pressure, particularly in the early part of the year.

我們預計，鑑於市場的動態，我們可能會看到持續的價格壓力，特別是在今年年初。

I think as you look at our second quarter, we'd expect price pressures to continue.

我認為，當你回顧我們的第二季度時，我們預計價格壓力將持續存在。

That moderates some, Angel, as you move through the year.

安吉爾，隨著時間的流逝，這會變得溫和一些。

Some of that is comps as well as we did in price action in the back half of '25, the comps get a little bit easier on the construction and forestry side.

其中一些是可比的，就像我們在 25 年下半年的價格行動中所做的那樣，建築和林業方面的可比價格變得稍微容易一些。

That's what gives us that flat guide.

這就是給我們提供平面指南的原因。

Yes.

是的。

Maybe one thing to add just on the CNS side.

也許只需在 CNS 方面添加一件事。

You brought up a good point, Josh, in terms of a little more price pressure in 2Q, we you could see that.

喬希，你提出了一個很好的觀點，就第二季的價格壓力稍大而言，我們可以看到這一點。

We probably have a little more underproduction in -- on the earthmoving side in 2Q there as well.

我們第二季的土方工程產量可能也會出現一些不足。

So that will impact kind of their cadence of margins as we go through the year.

因此，這將影響他們全年的利潤節奏。

They actually -- we expect them to actually build from a margin perspective and improve as we go through the remainder of the year.

實際上——我們預計他們將從利潤率的角度進行實際建設，並在今年剩餘時間內不斷改進。

2Q probably being the most challenged.

第二季可能是挑戰最大的季度。

And then we start to, to Beal's point, we start to lap some of the price actions that we took last year.

然後，正如比爾所說，我們開始重複去年採取的一些價格行動。

So the comps get a little bit easier in the back half of the year as well.

因此，今年下半年的競爭也會變得容易一些。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mircea Dobre, Baird.

米爾恰·多布雷，貝爾德。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

I'm wondering if you can maybe give us a little bit of handholding on margins.

我想知道您是否可以在利潤方面給我們一些幫助。

We're starting pretty slow, obviously, Q1 across all segments.

顯然，第一季我們各個細分領域的起步都相當緩慢。

How do you sort of see getting to the full year guidance?

您如何看待全年業績預期？

And again, this is a question that applies across the board in all three segments.

再次強調，這個問題適用於所有三個領域。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, I think as you're seeing build in the full year guide, it is a little bit atypical in some segments.

我的意思是，我認為正如您在全年指南中看到的那樣，它在某些領域有點不典型。

I mean Jepsen just mentioned the construction and forestry side, that's going to be very different than what we normally see in a year just given the underproduction in the first half and a little bit on the prices as well, you're going to see margins going to improve sequentially throughout the year on construction and forestry.

我的意思是，傑普森剛才提到了建築和林業方面，這將與我們通常一年中看到的情況非常不同，考慮到上半年的產量不足以及價格的一點影響，你會看到建築和林業的利潤率將在全年逐季提高。

Large Ag, as we mentioned, it's going to be a lot more like normal seasonality in terms of sales in that segment.

正如我們所提到的，大型農業領域的銷售情況將更像正常的季節性。

We'll see -- we would expect to see sales peak in the second quarter in Large Ag as we typically do.

我們會看到 - 我們預計大型農業的銷售將在第二季度達到峰值，就像我們通常所做的那樣。

So that will likely be the strongest margin quarter from the -- for the year.

因此，這很可能是今年利潤最高的一個季度。

Now you're going to see, again, from the sales side, year-over-year comps in terms of reduction be different just given the underproduction we did in the back half of the year.

現在您將再次看到，從銷售方面來看，由於我們下半年的產量不足，因此同比減幅會有所不同。

But it will be a lot more normal seasonality on the sales side.

但從銷售方面來看，這將是更正常的季節性。

Yes, Mig, this is Jepsen.

是的，米格，這是傑普森。

I think from a margin perspective, similarly, we would expect 2Q as normal to be strong this quarter.

我認為從利潤率的角度來看，同樣，我們預計本季的第二季業績將像往常一樣強勁。

3Q probably not terribly far off that.

第三季的結果可能與此相差不遠。

And so strength kind of in two and three, which is a little more normal.

因此強度大概在二到三之間，這是比較正常的。

And then as I mentioned, 4Q normally lighter on revenue, but will be -- should mark the turn from sales being down year-over-year for the quarter to moving up.

正如我所提到的那樣，第四季度的收入通常會較少，但這應該標誌著本季銷售額從同比下降轉為上升。

We'll go ahead and take one more question.

我們將繼續回答另一個問題。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

So the farmer ag package from December, how long would it take for farmers to receive bulk of the money, such that it can provide some tailwind to equipment demand?

那麼，從 12 月開始的農民農業一攬子計劃，農民需要多長時間才能收到大部分資金，為設備需求提供一些推動力？

If you're able to share any past examples or anecdotes, that would be helpful.

如果您能分享任何過去的例子或軼事，那將會很有幫助。

What I'm basically trying to understand is whether this could accelerate demand in the back half of 2025?

我基本上想了解的是，這是否會加速 2025 年下半年的需求？

Or more like early 2026 of your fiscal?

或者更像是財政年度的 2026 年初？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Tami.

謝謝，塔米。

This is Josh Jepsen.

這是 Josh Jepsen。

I would say when we saw some of this occur in the past, when we saw some payments come through in, call it, late '19, generally, what we saw is a lot of those things went to shore up balance sheets, pay down debt, buy inputs and those sorts of things.

我想說，當我們在過去看到一些這種情況發生時，當我們看到一些付款在2019年末到賬時，一般來說，我們看到很多東西都用來支撐資產負債表、償還債務、購買投入品和諸如此類的東西。

So I think our expectation is it doesn't probably drive new equipment demand in '25, but likely shores up balance sheet, potentially helps move some used inventory.

因此，我認為我們的預期是，它可能不會在25年推動新設備需求，但可能會支撐資產負債表，可能有助於轉移一些二手庫存。

But I think those are good outcomes, but likely near term, probably not a driver immediately of equipment orders.

但我認為這些都是好的結果，但可能在短期內不會立即成為設備訂單的動力。

Thanks, Tami.

謝謝，塔米。

And thanks all.

謝謝大家。

That's all the time we have for today.

今天我們的時間就這麼多。

We appreciate everyone's time, and thanks for joining us.

我們感謝大家的時間，並感謝您的加入我們。

That concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect at this time.

您現在可以斷開連線。