強鹿 (DE) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Deere & Company's third quarter earnings conference call.

早上好，歡迎參加迪爾公司第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Josh Beal, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監喬許‧比爾先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Hello, welcome, and thank you for joining us on today's call.

您好，歡迎光臨，感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。

Joining me on the call today are John May, Chief Executive Officer; Josh Jepsen, Chief Financial Officer; Luke Gakstatter, Senior Vice President, ag and turf sales and marketing for Americas and Australia; and Josh Rohleder, Manager of Investor Communications.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是執行長約翰梅 (John May)；喬許‧傑普森，財務長； Luke Gakstatter，美洲和澳洲農業和草坪銷售及行銷資深副總裁；喬希‧羅勒 (Josh Rohleder)，投資人溝通經理。

Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's third quarter earnings and spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal 2024. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.

今天，我們將仔細研究迪爾第三季的收益，並花一些時間討論我們的市場和我們目前對 2024 財年的展望。請注意，我們提供了幻燈片來補充今天早上的電話會議。您可以在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 上存取它們。

First, a reminder, this call is broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company. Any other use, recording, or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session agree that their likeness and remarks and all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

首先提醒一下，本次通話在網路上進行現場直播，並進行錄音，以供迪爾公司將來傳輸和使用。未經迪爾明確書面同意，嚴禁對本受版權保護的廣播的任何部分進行任何其他使用、錄製或傳輸。電話會議（包括問答環節）的參與者同意，他們的肖像、言論以及所有媒體都可以儲存並用作財報電話會議的一部分。

This call includes forward-looking statements concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to uncertainties, risks, changes in circumstances, and other factors that are difficult to predict. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K risk, factors in the annual Form 10-K as updated by reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under quarterly earnings and events.

本次電話會議包括有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述會受到不確定性、風險、環境變化和其他難以預測的因素的影響。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊包含在公司最新的 8-K 表格風險中，年度 10-K 表格中的因素已根據向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告進行更新。此電話會議還可能包括不符合美國公認會計原則 (GAAP) 的財務措施。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比 GAAP 措施的調節，已包含在新聞稿中，並發佈在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的季度收益和活動項下。

I will now turn the call over to Josh Rohleder.

我現在將把電話轉給喬許·羅勒德。

Good morning, and thank you for joining.

早安，感謝您的加入。

John Deere completed the third quarter with disciplined performance amid a tough macro backdrop. Financial results for the quarter included an 18.5% margin for the equipment operations. Ag fundamentals remain muted and market demand in construction and forestry has tempered alongside continued price competition, resulting in another quarter of overall challenging market conditions.

在嚴峻的宏觀背景下，約翰迪爾以穩健的業績完成了第三季的業績。該季度的財務表現包括設備營運利潤率為 18.5%。農業基本面依然疲軟，建築和林業的市場需求隨著持續的價格競爭而減弱，導致整體市場狀況另一個季度充滿挑戰。

Despite tougher markets in both ag and construction, we continued to execute to our plan, focusing on proactive inventory and cost management. Notably for the quarter, we adjusted rest of your production schedules in our earthmoving product lines to target lower year end field inventory levels. As a result, order books across all segments are effectively full for the remainder of the fiscal year as we position our business to respond to changes in retail demand. These actions, along with a continued focus on cost control, are essential to keeping our business healthy as we continue to invest in future growth.

儘管農業和建築市場情況嚴峻，我們仍繼續執行我們的計劃，重點關注主動庫存和成本管理。值得注意的是，在本季度，我們調整了土方產品線中的其餘生產計劃，以降低年終現場庫存水準。因此，在本財年剩餘時間內，所有細分市場的訂單實際上都已滿，因為我們將業務定位於應對零售需求的變化。這些行動以及對成本控制的持續關注對於我們在繼續投資未來成長的同時保持業務健康至關重要。

We will now begin with slide 3 in our results for the third quarter. Net sales and revenues were down 17% to $13.152 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were down 20% to $11.387 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $1.734 billion or $6.29 per diluted share.

我們現在從第三季業績的幻燈片 3 開始。淨銷售額和收入下降 17%，至 131.52 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額下降 20%，至 113.87 億美元。迪爾公司應佔淨利為 17.34 億美元，或攤薄後每股收益 6.29 美元。

Looking into our individual business segments, we'll start with production and precision ag on slide 4. Net sales of $5.099 billion were down 25% compared to the third quarter last year, primarily due to lower shipment volumes, which were partially offset by price realization. Price realization was positive by slightly more than 2.5 points. Currency translation was negative by a little more than 1 point. Operating profit was $1.162 billion with a 22.8% operating margin for the segment. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and employee separation program expenses. These were partially offset by price realization and lower warranty expenses.

看看我們的各個業務部門，我們將從幻燈片4 上的生產和精密農業開始。但部分被價格抵銷實現。價格實現略高於 2.5 個百分點。貨幣換算為負值，略高於 1 個百分點。該部門的營業利潤為 11.62 億美元，營業利益率為 22.8%。年比下降的主要原因是出貨量下降和員工離職計畫費用。這些被價格實現和較低的保固費用部分抵消。

Next we'll turn to small ag & turf on slide 5. Net sales were down 18% year over year, totaling $3.053 billion in the third quarter because of lower shipment volumes, partially offset by price realization. Price realization was positive by more than 1.5 points. Currency translation was negative by just under 0.5 point. Operating profit declined year over year to $496 million, leading to a 16.2% operating margin. The decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and higher warranty expenses which were partially offset by price realization.

接下來我們將轉向幻燈片 5 上的小型農業和草皮業務。價格實現上漲超過 1.5 個百分點。貨幣換算為負值，略低於 0.5 個百分點。營業利益較去年同期下降至 4.96 億美元，營業利益率為 16.2%。下降的主要原因是出貨量減少和保固費用增加，但部分被價格實現所抵銷。

Slide 6 gives our 2024 industry outlook for ag & turf markets globally. Across all major markets, we continue to see muted demand resulting from a challenging macro environment. Global stocks of grains continue to rebuild with excellent growing conditions, leading to better-than-expected production and lower commodity prices. High interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty further weigh on customers' purchase decisions, resulting in reduced demand across all end markets.

幻燈片 6 給出了我們對全球農業和草坪市場 2024 年的行業展望。在所有主要市場，我們繼續看到充滿挑戰的宏觀環境導致需求疲軟。全球穀物庫存持續重建，生長條件良好，導致產量優於預期，大宗商品價格下降。高利率和地緣政治不確定性進一步影響客戶的購買決策，導致所有終端市場的需求減少。

In the US and Canada, we continue to expect large ag equipment industry sales to be down approximately 15% during the quarter. Demand continues to be pressured by declining farm margins and elevated used inventory levels in late model year machines, which is partially offset by an elevated fleet age, rising farmland values, and stable farm balance sheets. Within small ag and turf in the US and Canada, industry demand estimates remain down approximately 10%. Further declines in the turf and compact utility tractor segments, which are more sensitive to interest rates, are partially offset by improving dairy and livestock fundamentals.

在美國和加拿大，我們繼續預期本季大型農業設備產業銷售額將下降約 15%。需求繼續受到農場利潤下降和後期型號機器二手庫存水平上升的壓力，但機隊年齡增加、農田價值上升和穩定的農場資產負債表部分抵消了這一壓力。在美國和加拿大的小型農業和領域，產業需求估計仍下降約 10%。對利率更敏感的草坪和緊湊型多用途拖拉機領域的進一步下滑，被乳製品和畜牧業基本面的改善所部分抵消。

Turning to Europe, the industry is forecasted to be down approximately 15%, reflecting yield headwinds and weakened margins. Volatile weather patterns continued to drive commodity price and variable cash flow uncertainty, which is enhanced by slightly elevated input costs. However, dairy and livestock fundamentals remain healthy, providing moderate stability to the segment.

轉向歐洲，預計該產業將下降約 15%，反映出產量逆風和利潤率下降。多變的天氣模式繼續推高大宗商品價格和可變的現金流不確定​​性，而投入成本的小幅上升又加劇了這種不確定性。然而，乳製品和畜牧業的基本面依然健康，為該領域提供了適度的穩定性。

In South America, we expect industry sales of tractors and combines to decline between 15% and 20%. Commodity price softening and elevated interest rates continue to pressure grower profitability, especially in Brazil, our largest market in the region. Fundamentals are further pressured by better-than-expected production in Brazil, despite regional weather challenges and a slower-than-forecasted recovery in Argentina. Industry sales in Asia, in Asia, our forecast is down moderately.

在南美洲，我們預計拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷量將下降 15% 至 20%。大宗商品價格疲軟和利率上升繼續給種植者的盈利能力帶來壓力，尤其是在我們該地區最大的市場巴西。儘管面臨區域天氣挑戰且阿根廷復甦慢於預期，但巴西產量好於預期，進一步對基本面帶來壓力。亞洲的產業銷售，在亞洲，我們的預測是適度下調。

Moving on to our segment forecast beginning on slide 7. Production and precision ag, our net sales forecast remains down between 20% and 25% for the full year. The forecast now assumes roughly 2 points of positive price realization and flat currency translation for the full year. For the segment's operating margin, our full year forecast remains between 20.5% and 21.5% despite muted demand.

繼續我們從幻燈片 7 開始的部門預測。現在的預測假設全年價格實現約 2 個百分點，貨幣換算持平。對於該部門的營業利潤率，儘管需求低迷，我們的全年預測仍保持在 20.5% 至 21.5% 之間。

Slide 8 covers our forecasts for the small ag and turf segment. We expect net sales to remain down between 20% and 25%. The guide now includes 2 points of positive price realization and flat currency translation. Segment operating margin continues to be forecasted between 13.5% and 14.5%, in line with slowing net sales.

幻燈片 8 涵蓋了我們對小型農業和草坪領域的預測。我們預計淨銷售額將繼續下降 20% 至 25%。該指南現在包括 2 點正價格實現和固定貨幣換算。預計該部門的營業利潤率將繼續在 13.5% 至 14.5% 之間，與淨銷售額放緩一致。

Shifting now to construction & forestry on slide 9. Net sales for the quarter were down 13% year over year to $3.235 billion due to lower shipment volumes. Price realization was negative by 1 point. Currency translation was also negative by more than 0.5 point. Operating profit of $448 million was down year over year, resulting in a 13.8% operating margin due primarily to lower shipment volumes, unfavorable sales mix, and negative price realization.

現在轉向幻燈片 9 上的建築和林業。價格實現負 1 個百分點。貨幣換算也出現負值超過 0.5 個百分點。營業利潤年減 4.48 億美元，營業利潤率下降 13.8%，主要是由於出貨量下降、銷售組合不利以及實現負價格所致。

Slide 10 provides an update to our 2024 construction and forestry industry outlook. Industry sales for earthmoving equipment in the US and Canada is now expected to be down 5% to 10%, while compact construction equipment in the US and Canada is now expected to be flat to down 5%. Demand for earthmoving and compact construction equipment is down from robust levels in 2023 and increasingly competitive as rental refleeting decelerates and used inventory levels rise.

幻燈片 10 更新了我們對 2024 年建築和林業行業的展望。美國和加拿大土方設備的行業銷售額目前預計將下降 5% 至 10%，而美國和加拿大的緊湊型建築設備目前預計將持平至下降 5%。對土方和緊湊型建築設備的需求較 2023 年的強勁水準有所下降，隨著租金週轉速度放緩和二手庫存水準上升，競爭日益激烈。

While US government infrastructure spending remains supportive and manufacturing investments continue to increase, we are witnessing a sequential slowdown in single-family housing starts and an interest rate uncertainty. This is compounded by continued declines in multi-family housing starts and persistent weakness in the commercial real estate sector.

儘管美國政府基礎設施支出仍具有支持性，製造業投資持續增加，但我們看到單戶住宅開工量連續放緩，利率也存在不確定性。多戶住宅開工量持續下降和商業房地產行業持續疲軟，加劇了這一情況。

Global forestry markets are projected to remain down around 10% as all global markets continue to be challenged. The global road-building market forecast remains flat to down 5% as strong infrastructure spending in the US is offset by continued softness in Western Europe.

由於全球所有市場持續面臨挑戰，預計全球林業市場將持續下降 10% 左右。由於美國強勁的基礎建設支出被西歐的持續疲軟所抵消，全球道路建設市場預測仍持平或下降 5%。

Moving on to construction & forestry segment outlook on slide 11. 2024 net sales estimates are now expected to be down between 10% and 15% as moderating demand is coupled with planned underproduction. Net sales guidance for the year now includes about 0.5 point, a positive price realization and flat currency translation. The segment's operating margin is now projected to be around 15%, reflecting a tougher competitive environment, decelerating demand, and underproduction of construction equipped.

接下來是幻燈片 11 上的建築和林業部門前景。今年的淨銷售指導現在包括約 0.5 個百分點、正的價格實現和固定的貨幣換算。該部門的營業利潤率目前預計約為 15%，反映出競爭環境更加嚴峻、需求放緩以及建築設備生產不足。

Transitioning to our financial service operations on slide 12. Worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere & Company in the third quarter was $153 million. Net income was lower due to a higher provision for credit losses and less favorable financing spreads, which were partially offset by higher average portfolio and favorable discrete tax items.

投影片 12 轉向我們的金融服務業務。淨利潤下降是由於信貸損失準備金增加和融資利差不利，但平均投資組合增加和有利的離散稅收項目部分抵消了這一影響。

For fiscal year 2024, our outlook for net income is now at $720 million that benefits from a higher average portfolio balance are expected to be more than offset by a higher provision for credit losses and less favorable financing spreads.

對於 2024 財年，我們對淨利潤的展望目前為 7.2 億美元，平均投資組合餘額較高帶來的收益預計將被較高的信貸損失準備金和較差的融資利差所抵消。

Subsequent to the quarter, we announced an agreement with Banco Bradesco to invest and become 50% owners in our Brazilian financing subsidiary, Banco John Deere. This strategic decision reduces incremental financing risks while allowing for continued investment in growth in the Brazilian market. The transaction is expected to close in the second fiscal quarter of 2025. In our quarterly results, we classified Banco John Deere as a business held for sale, which resulted in the net impact of a pre-tax and after-tax loss of $15 million accounted for and SA&G within the financial services segment.

本季結束後，我們宣布與布拉德斯科銀行 (Banco Bradesco) 達成協議，投資我們的巴西金融子公司約翰迪爾銀行 (Banco John Deere) 並成為其 50% 的所有者。這項策略決策降低了增量融資風險，同時允許持續投資以促進巴西市場的成長。該交易預計將於 2025 年第二財季完成。屬於金融服務部門。

Next slide 13 outlines our guidance for Deere & Company's net income, our effective tax rate, and operating cash flow. For fiscal year '24, we remain -- we maintain our outlook for net income at approximately $7 billion. Next, our guidance continues to incorporate an effective tax rate between 23% and 25%. And lastly, cash flow from the equipment operations is now projected to be in the range of $6 billion to $6.5 billion.

下一張投影片 13 概述了我們對迪爾公司淨利、有效稅率和經營現金流的指導。對於 24 財年，我們仍將淨利潤預期維持在約 70 億美元。接下來，我們的指導方針繼續納入 23% 至 25% 之間的有效稅率。最後，設備營運產生的現金流目前預計在 60 億至 65 億美元之間。

And finally, on slide 14, I'd like to hand it over to John May to say a few words.

最後，在投影片 14 上，我想請 John May 說幾句話。

Thank you, Josh.

謝謝你，喬許。

The third quarter was another solid quarter, thanks to the efforts of the entire John Deere team in partnership with our outstanding dealer network and supply base. As mentioned in the opening comments, our customers across nearly all business segments are facing headwinds, including softer commodity prices and elevated interest rates.

第三季又是穩健的季度，這要歸功於整個約翰迪爾團隊與我們出色的經銷商網路和供應基地的合作。正如開場白中所提到的，我們幾乎所有業務領域的客戶都面臨阻力，包括大宗商品價格疲軟和利率上升。

Against this backdrop, I am extremely proud of our team's unwavering commitment to and execution of our key priorities. They have navigated the business cycle through proactive inventory management and disciplined cost control while continually striving to deliver value to our customers.

在此背景下，我對我們團隊堅定不移地致力於和執行我們的關鍵優先事項感到非常自豪。他們透過主動的庫存管理和嚴格的成本控制來駕馭商業週期，同時不斷努力為客戶提供價值。

Effective cycle management begins with ensuring that inventory levels are appropriately aligned to end market demand. Throughout 2024, we've prudently and proactively adjusted production schedules in our large ag business at a faster pace than ever before in order to reduce field inventory in our end markets.

有效的周期管理首先要確保庫存水準與終端市場需求適當一致。 2024年全年，我們以比以往更快的速度審慎、主動地調整大型農業業務的生產計劃，以減少終端市場的現場庫存。

This quarter, we made a similar adjustment for many of our earthmoving product lines in North America in response to signs of moderating demand. We will also continue to focus on reducing used inventory levels, particularly in North American large ag for the remainder of the year.

本季度，我們對北美的許多土方產品線進行了類似的調整，以應對需求放緩的跡象。我們也將繼續專注於降低二手庫存水平，特別是在今年剩餘時間內北美大型股份公司。

As we approach the start of fiscal 2025, the lean levels of field inventory resulting from these actions will best position our operations in both segments to respond effectively that changes in market demand. Proactively managing our production schedules also facilitates disciplined cost control. In this lower volume environment, we've made challenging decisions that impact both our factories and our offices to ensure that our cost structure aligns with current market demand.

隨著 2025 財年即將開始，這些行動帶來的現場庫存精實水準將使我們在這兩個領域的業務處於最佳位置，以有效應對市場需求的變化。主動管理我們的生產計劃也有助於嚴格的成本控制。在這種產量較低的環境中，我們做出了具有挑戰性的決策，這些決策影響了我們的工廠和辦公室，以確保我們的成本結構符合當前的市場需求。

And while these actions have been hard and certainly not something we take lightly, they help us maintain our competitiveness throughout the business cycle, allowing us to continue investing in the products and solutions that empower our customers to address their unique challenges. That is our ultimate purpose, delivering value for our customers. In the near term, this means continuing to build and ship the high level quality and most productive equipment to our customers.

雖然這些行動很艱難，而且我們當然不會掉以輕心，但它們幫助我們在整個商業週期中保持競爭力，使我們能夠繼續投資於產品和解決方案，使我們的客戶能夠應對他們獨特的挑戰。這是我們的最終目的，為客戶創造價值。在短期內，這意味著繼續為我們的客戶製造和運送高水準品質和最俱生產力的設備。

I want to extend my heartfelt gratitude to all of our John Deere team members who have maintained his commitment at the highest level throughout 2024, despite necessary adjustments we've had to make in our operations. None of this happens without a high performing team that shows up to deliver for our customers every single day. In the medium and long term, our ability to deliver value for our customers is rooted in Deere's unique position to help them do more with less by developing precision solutions that leverage our extensive product portfolio, our vertically integrated tech stack, and unparalleled service and support.

我要向所有約翰迪爾團隊成員致以衷心的感謝，儘管我們必須在營運中做出必要的調整，但他們在 2024 年仍保持了最高水準的承諾。如果沒有一支每天為客戶提供服務的高績效團隊，這一切都不會發生。從中長期來看，我們為客戶創造價值的能力植根於迪爾的獨特地位，即透過利用我們廣泛的產品組合、垂直整合的技術堆疊以及無與倫比的服務和支持開發精準的解決方案，幫助他們事半功倍。

Looking ahead, we are optimistic about the opportunities before us. Our machines are delivering ever greater cost savings and promoting sustainable operations for our customers. We see significant potential to leverage our existing technologies across various production systems, enabling us to scale innovation and enhance value delivery across our customer base. Ultimately, this results in a continually expanding offering of solutions that drive improved outcomes for our customers, dealers, and dealer alike.

展望未來，我們對擺在我們面前的機會感到樂觀。我們的機器正在為我們的客戶帶來更大的成本節約並促進永續營運。我們看到了在各種生產系統中利用現有技術的巨大潛力，使我們能夠擴大創新並增強整個客戶群的價值交付。最終，這將導致解決方案不斷豐富，為我們的客戶、經銷商和經銷商等帶來更好的成果。

Thank you, John. This concludes our formal comments. We'll now shifted to discussions on a few topics specific to the quarter.

謝謝你，約翰。我們的正式評論到此結束。我們現在將轉向討論本季特定的幾個主題。

Starting off with Deere's performance in the third quarter, net sales declined approximately 20% year over year, but we still saw our operating margin come in at over 18%. Clearly a challenging macro environment, but we've managed to hold margins.

從迪爾第三季的業績開始，淨銷售額年減了約 20%，但我們的營業利潤率仍超過 18%。宏觀環境顯然充滿挑戰，但我們設法保持了利潤率。

Josh Beal, can you kick us off with what happened this quarter?

喬許·比爾（Josh Beal），您能先介紹一下本季發生的事情嗎？

Absolutely. Thanks, Josh.

絕對地。謝謝，喬許。

As you mentioned, our strong margin performance is encouraging given the difficult market backdrop, particularly as we pull the inventory management levers that John noted. In both ag segments, we saw declines in net sales as end-user demand continued to soften. However, by keeping inventories in check, we've been able to maintain solid price realization. In addition, our strategic partnerships with our supplier base are helping drive down material and freight costs, which are offsetting overhead efficiencies as we bring down production rates at our factories.

正如您所提到的，鑑於困難的市場背景，特別是當我們拉動約翰指出的庫存管理槓桿時，我們強勁的利潤率表現令人鼓舞。在這兩個農業領域，隨著最終用戶需求持續疲軟，我們看到淨銷售額下降。然而，透過控制庫存，我們能夠保持穩定的價格實現。此外，我們與供應商的策略合作夥伴關係正在幫助降低材料和貨運成本，當我們降低工廠的生產率時，這會抵消管理費用效率。

In construction, we saw a downshift in demand and an uptick in used inventories as rental refleeting cooled and home starts slowed amid interest-rate uncertainty, all while a competitive market environment drove increased incentive spending, fiscal pressure on both volumes and price in the quarter. And as a result, we adjusted our North American construction equipment production schedule for the rest of the year to lower our ending field inventories and better position us for 2025. With roughly two months of order visibility in this segment, we are confident in our ability to execute our plan.

在建築業，我們看到需求下降，二手庫存增加，因為利率不確定性導致租金回流降溫和新屋開工放緩，而競爭激烈的市場環境推動了激勵性支出的增加，本季度銷量和價格面臨財政壓力。因此，我們調整了今年剩餘時間的北美建築設備生產計劃，以降低期末現場庫存，並為 2025 年做好更好的定位。執行我們的計劃。

Great recap, Josh.

很棒的回顧，喬許。

[In order to] note about the challenging quarter and declining demand, the farm fundamentals are clearly top of mind right now with corn, soy, and wheat prices all down more than 15% year over year, which brings down farm margins as well.

[為了]注意到充滿挑戰的季度和不斷下降的需求，農業基本面顯然是目前最受關注的，玉米、大豆和小麥價格同比均下跌超過 15%，這也降低了農場利潤。

Can you walk us through what we're seeing and what this means for both farmers and equipment demand?

您能否向我們介紹一下我們所看到的情況以及這對農民和設備需求意味著什麼？

Sure. It's definitely a tough -- different and tougher environment today than it was a year ago. If you take North America as an example, on the one hand, farmers are experiencing one of their best crops in years, thanks to excellent weather conditions. But then on the other hand, the high levels of production resulting from the strong expected yields for causing crop prices to decline as you mentioned.

當然。這絕對是一個艱難的環境——與一年前相比，今天的環境有所不同，也更加艱難。如果以北美為例，一方面，由於良好的天氣條件，農民正在經歷多年來最好的收成之一。但另一方面，正如您所提到的，強勁的預期單產量導致高產量導致農作物價格下降。

Although input costs are projected to be down this year, it's not enough to offset the lower commodity prices, hitting the projected year-over-year declines in farm net incomes, which ultimately puts pressure on equipment demand.

儘管今年投入成本預計將下降，但這不足以抵消大宗商品價格的下降，從而導致農業淨收入預計將同比下降，最終對設備需求造成壓力。

Brazil is experiencing a similar situation in North America with ag commodity prices softening due to replenish global supplies, another year of near record yields and expansion of soybean acreage. Unit profitability for Brazilian customers is magnified by persistently high interest rates in the region, leading to further pullbacks in equipment sales.

巴西在北美也經歷了類似的情況，由於補充全球供應、另一年單產接近創紀錄水平以及大豆種植面積擴大，農產品大宗商品價格走軟。巴西客戶的單位獲利能力因該地區持續高利率而放大，導致設備銷售進一步下滑。

In Europe, farm investments continue to soften as weather uncertainty pressures crop yield estimates and while lending conditions remain tight, input costs have remained elevated in the region leading to depressed margins and weaker farmer sentiment. However, steady prices and reduced input costs in the dairy and livestock segment are providing some moderating tailwinds what is otherwise a challenging equipment demand environment in the region.

在歐洲，由於天氣不確定性對農作物產量預估帶來壓力，農業投資持續疲軟，同時貸款條件依然緊張，但該地區的投入成本仍然較高，導致利潤率低迷和農民情緒疲軟。然而，乳製品和畜牧業價格的穩定和投入成本的降低正在提供一些緩和的推動力，否則該地區的設備需求環境將充滿挑戰。

This is Jepsen.

這是傑普森。

One important note regarding fleet fundamentals that North America, we continue to see an elevated fleet age, which enables replacement purchases. Additionally, strong balance sheets are providing support in a downturn driven by farmland values that are up nearly 5% year over year. So while it's definitely a challenging market for customers, there are some supportive factors to account for.

關於北美機隊基本面的一個重要說明是，我們繼續看到機隊年齡不斷延長，這使得更換購買成為可能。此外，強勁的資產負債表在農地價值同比增長近 5% 的推動下為經濟低迷提供了支持。因此，雖然這對客戶來說絕對是一個充滿挑戰的市場，但也有一些支援因素需要考慮。

Yeah, this is John. I'd like to share an additional thought.

是的，這是約翰。我想分享一個額外的想法。

Last week, I was in Brazil, speaking with some of our customers in the region about the near- and long-term prospects for agriculture in the country. The near term, while the market has experienced a decline, it appears to be more stable now than it was just a few months ago, which is encouraging for 2025.

上週，我在巴西與該地區的一些客戶討論了該國農業的近期和長期前景。短期來看，雖然市場經歷了下滑，但現在似乎比幾個月前更穩定，這對 2025 年來說是令人鼓舞的。

Looking ahead, there is a strong sense of optimism regarding the region's prospects with significant opportunities still on the horizon. One customer mentioned that his business has structurally improved over the years. He is eager to continue investing in solutions and technologies that enhance productivity and profitability. Deere is committed to supporting this need through ongoing investments in the region as we continue to introduce new products and technologies, specifically designed in Brazil, for Brazil.

展望未來，人們對該地區的前景抱持強烈的樂觀態度，重大機會仍然存在。一位客戶提到，多年來他的業務在結構上得到了改善。他渴望繼續投資於提高生產力和獲利能力的解決方案和技術。迪爾致力於透過在該地區的持續投資來支持這一需求，我們不斷推出專為巴西設計的新產品和技術。

Perfect. Thank you all for that great color.

完美的。謝謝大家給我這麼好的顏色。

Now with that context on ag fundamentals, I'd like to move on to our early order programs in North America to better understand how this is translating into equipment sales for model year '25.

現在，在了解農業基本面的背景下，我想繼續討論我們在北美的早期訂單計劃，以便更好地了解這如何轉化為 25 年車型的設備銷售。

Luke, our EOPs typically account for roughly 90% of our production for seasonal products each year. Can you walk us through what's transpired so far as we begin to get some insights into next year?

Luke，我們的 EOP 通常占我們每年季節性產品產量的約 90%。您能否向我們介紹一下到目前為止所發生的事情，以便我們開始對明年有一些了解？

Absolutely, Josh.

當然，喬許。

It's probably best to start with what's changed in our process year over year. Historically, our early order programs would leverage multiple basins to help shape demand and fill our production schedule. Under this approach, generally speaking, the earlier and orders placed in the program, the greater the discount for the customer.

最好從我們的流程逐年發生的變化開始。從歷史上看，我們的早期訂單計劃將利用多個盆地來幫助塑造需求並滿足我們的生產計劃。在這種方法下，一般來說，越早在該計劃中下訂單，客戶獲得的折扣就越大。

During the last few years of constrained supply, this all changed, and we leveraged more of an allocation approach in attempt to meet our dealer and customer needs in a time of high demand. Given the return to more moderated demand, we have returned to our traditional approach of multiple phases with tiered discounts for products like planters, air seeders, sprayers, and combines.

在過去幾年供應緊張的情況下，這一切都發生了變化，我們更多地利用了分配方法，試圖在需求旺盛的時期滿足經銷商和客戶的需求。鑑於需求回歸溫和，我們恢復了傳統的多階段方法，對播種機、空氣播種機、噴霧機和聯合收割機等產品提供分級折扣。

Planters and sprayers opened earlier this summer and are currently in their second or third phase, while combines just opened last week with list price increases across all EOPs currently in the 2% to 3% range. Tractors, as a reminder, are on a rolling order book with roughly four months of visibility, providing confidence in our production plans as we close out (technical difficulty).

播種機和噴霧機於今年初夏開業，目前正處於第二或第三階段，而聯合收割機上週剛開業，所有 EOP 的標價上漲目前在 2% 至 3% 範圍內。提醒一下，拖拉機處於滾動訂單簿上，具有大約四個月的可見性，這為我們在結束時（技術困難）的生產計劃提供了信心。

Now as we shift and talk about progress on our early order programs, coming off last year's near-peak demand levels, the model-year 25 sprayer EOP is currently down double digits. As said, orders are tracking slightly above [three] 2022 EOP volume.

現在，當我們轉向並談論我們的早期訂單計劃的進展時，從去年接近高峰的需求水平來看，25 款噴霧機的 EOP 目前下降了兩位數。如前所述，訂單量略高於 2022 年 EOP 數量[三]。

Planter sales are also down double digits and down relatively more than sprayers on a year over year. It's worth noting that historically, we have seen greater variability with implement sales throughout the ag cycle when compared to the self-propelled product line. And given North American planters were another product well above mid-cycle volumes in 2024, it is not unexpected to see a larger reduction of planters relative to sprayers this year.

播種機銷量也出現兩位數下降，較去年同期下降幅度比噴霧機更大。值得注意的是，從歷史上看，與自行式產品線相比，我們發現整個農業週期中機具銷售的變化更大。鑑於北美花盆是另一種遠高於 2024 年周期中期銷量的產品，因此今年花盆相對於噴霧器的大幅減少也就不足為奇了。

Additionally, history would tell us that in times of uncertainty, we typically see more activity at the end of the EOP phases compared to the beginning as customers time their purchases to better align delivery, but they're seasonal. A current high interest rate environment further extends this trend and for customers and dealers look to minimize carrying costs and be as efficient as possible with their assets. While planter and sprayer EOP orders are down for model year 25, [pack] adoption continues to accelerate as customers adopt precision solutions to help increase profitability amidst a tougher macro environment.

此外，歷史告訴我們，在不確定的時期，我們通常會在 EOP 階段結束時看到比開始時更多的活動，因為客戶會安排購買時間以更好地調整交付，但它們是季節性的。當前的高利率環境進一步延續了這一趨勢，客戶和經銷商希望最大限度地降低持有成本並盡可能提高資產效率。雖然第 25 款車型的播種機和噴霧機 EOP 訂單有所下降，但隨著客戶採用精確的解決方案來幫助在更嚴峻的宏觀環境中提高盈利能力，[pack] 的採用繼續加速。

Across our more established solutions, we have seen average adoption rates well above 80% with exact supply, in particular, up nearly 10 points. For our newest and most advanced offerings like Exact Shot and See & Spray, we are seeing healthy adoption rates during the first year. And in particular, our See & Spray technology has achieved high-single digit take rate in its first full year of commercial [availability] at a pace commensurate with historical precedence.

在我們更成熟的解決方案中，我們發現在精確供應的情況下，平均採用率遠高於 80%，尤其是提高了近 10 個百分點。對於我們最新、最先進的產品（例如 Exact Shot 和 See & Spray），我們在第一年就看到了良好的採用率。特別是，我們的 See & Spray 技術在其商業[可用性]的第一個全年就實現了高個位數的採用率，其速度與歷史領先水平相稱。

One thing to highlight beyond just the take rates for our latest solutions is the feedback we're receiving from both customers and dealers on the efficacy of the technology. We continue to hear that See & Spray savings are meeting or exceeding expectations and that the ROI pencils out. That said, See & Spray does require significant shifts in the way our customers manage their crop care programs, everything from what chemicals they buy, to how much they buy, to how often they are tendering, their equipment in the field must change, which is a significant investment on the part of the customers. We understand [this], which is why we are more committed than ever to dealer engagement and customer success, ensuring we provide the solutions support and most importantly, the outcomes that our customers need to succeed.

除了我們最新解決方案的採用率之外，需要強調的一件事是我們從客戶和經銷商收到的關於該技術功效的回饋。我們不斷聽說 See & Spray 節省的成本達到或超出了預期，而投資回報率也已實現。也就是說，See & Spray 確實需要我們的客戶管理其作物護理計劃的方式發生重大轉變，從他們購買什麼化學品、購買多少、到招標頻率，他們的田間設備都必須改變，這是客戶的一項重大投資。我們理解這一點，這就是為什麼我們比以往任何時候都更致力於經銷商參與和客戶成功，確保我們提供解決方案支持，最重要的是，提供客戶成功所需的結果。

Thanks for the additional detail, Josh.

感謝您提供更多詳細信息，喬什。

And Luke, I'd like to come back to you once more. We covered ag fundamentals, which in turn has resulted in early indications on our planter and sprayer EOP sales. How does this relate to inventory levels? Can you give us an update on how we're progressing in our inventory management plan?

路克，我想再次回到你身邊。我們介紹了農業基本面，這反過來又導致了我們播種機和噴霧機 EOP 銷售的早期跡象。這與庫存水準有何關係？您能否向我們介紹庫存管理計畫的最新進度？

Yeah, you bt.

是的，你bt。

And just as a reminder, our decision to under-produce is rooted in our learnings from the last cycle, given that we began taking actions last year and again, this year to drive inventories lower. While this has caused some short-term pain, it is the right plan to manage the cycle and better sets us up for whichever way the market (technical difficulty) and so with that, I would start by highlighting our situation in Brazil. This market has remained challenged, as you noted earlier. However, we significantly under-produced the market. And despite the industry demand declining more than anticipated, we still seen inventory decline so far this year and fully anticipate that this trend will accelerate throughout the remainder.

提醒一下，我們生產不足的決定植根於我們從上一個週期中學到的教訓，因為我們去年和今年開始採取行動來降低庫存。雖然這造成了一些短期的痛苦，但這是管理週期的正確計劃，可以更好地讓我們為市場的任何方向（技術難度）做好準備，因此，我首先強調我們在巴西的情況。正如您之前指出的，這個市場仍然面臨挑戰。然而，我們的市場產量嚴重不足。儘管行業需求下降幅度超過預期，但今年迄今庫存仍下降，並完全預期這一趨勢將在剩餘時間內加速。

Relative to the North American large ag segment, we are beginning to see the impacts of our proactive inventory management decisions with absolute units of new inventory declining double digits over the past quarter, outpacing the industry. We expect further reductions to occur during the fourth quarter, which is in line with historical trends. While we expect our inventory to sales ratios, which remain below industry levels to end the year at roughly the same level as last year, this reflects a material decrease in the absolute number of (technical difficulty) in fact, to put this into perspective, on an absolute basis, we are forecasting to end the year with less than one row-crop tractor per dealer (technical difficulty).

相對於北美大型農業領域，我們開始看到我們主動庫存管理決策的影響，新庫存的絕對單位在過去一個季度下降了兩位數，超過了行業。我們預計第四季將進一步減少，這符合歷史趨勢。雖然我們預計我們的庫存與銷售比率仍低於行業水平，但今年年底與去年大致相同，但這反映出（技術難度）事實上的絕對數量大幅下降，從這個角度來看，從絕對角度來看，我們預計到年底每個經銷商的中耕作物拖拉機數量將少於一台（技術難度）。

If I might jump in and quickly add some color to Luke's comment on rest of the year reductions in North America. The underproduction of large tractors we highlighted last quarter will be a significant driver of the implied margin decline in our fourth quarter. For example, our guide contemplates planned shutdowns of our eight series tractor production line in Waterloo, Iowa, for about 50% of the total production days in the quarter, which will have a material impact on our decremental margins. It's important to note here that these are shut down days rather than line rate shifts as we work to implement our planned underproduction for fiscal 2024 as efficiently as possible while remaining agile enough to respond to any future demand changes next year.

請允許我插話並快速為盧克關於今年剩餘時間北美減排的評論添加一些色彩。我們上季強調的大型拖拉機產量不足將是第四季隱含利潤下降的重要驅動因素。例如，我們的指南考慮計劃關閉愛荷華州滑鐵盧的八系列拖拉機生產線，關閉時間佔本季總生產天數的約 50%，這將對我們的利潤下降產生重大影響。在此需要注意的是，這些是停工日，而不是線速變化，因為我們致力於盡可能高效地實施 2024 財年計劃的生產不足，同時保持足夠的敏捷性以應對明年未來的任何需求變化。

That's a great point to highlight, Josh, and in fact, we're taking that approach at other factories around the world. For example, our six series tractors in Mannheim, Germany, are also planning a similar shutdown for roughly a third of their fourth quarter production days, which will have an impact on small ag margins as well.

喬什，這是一個值得強調的重要觀點，事實上，我們正​​在世界各地的其他工廠採取這種方法。例如，我們在德國曼海姆的六系列拖拉機也計劃在第四季度大約三分之一的生產日內進行類似的停產，這也會對小農業利潤率產生影響。

But to shift back to inventory levels, Luke, can you walk us through the use side?

但是，回到庫存水平，盧克，您能給我們介紹一下使用方面嗎？

Certainly.

當然。

On the used inventory side, we've seen total units increase across all product lines year over year, while combined did peak near 10-year averages last quarter, we have since seen volumes retreat as dealers work through normal [inter-season plant]. As we look to finish out the year and into 2025, one of our primary focus areas is (technical difficulty) to that end last week, we hosted our dealer CEOs and key leaders at various locations across North America. Our message to our dealers is clear. Reduction in used inventory was our number one priority right now, and we were further committed to helping them drive down used (technical difficulty).

在二手庫存方面，我們看到所有產品線的總銷量逐年增加，而上個季度的總銷量確實達到了接近10 年平均水平的峰值，但此後我們看到，隨著經銷商通過正常的[季節間工廠]工作，銷量下降。當我們希望結束這一年並進入 2025 年時，我們的主要關注領域之一是（技術難度），上週，我們在北美各地接待了我們的經銷商執行長和主要領導人。我們向經銷商傳達的訊息很明確。減少二手庫存是我們目前的首要任務，我們進一步致力於幫助他們降低二手庫存（技術難度）。

Furthermore, we rolled out additional programs and tactics to support them. The best example would be our increase in pool funds, which as a reminder, our [dollars] dealers earn from new sales that can be applied as incentives for used equipment. We expect this and other additional tactics to help them sell through late model, high horsepower tractors, and combines to best position us for next year.

此外，我們還推出了額外的計劃和策略來支持他們。最好的例子是我們增加集合資金，提醒一下，我們的[美元]經銷商可以從新銷售中賺取收入，這些收入可以用作二手設備的激勵措施。我們預計這項策略和其他附加策略將幫助他們銷售最新型號的大馬力拖拉機，並結合起來為我們明年做好最佳定位。

Overall, as I reflect on the meetings with our dealers, I came away with a strong sense of optimism on three important points. Number one, incredibly strong alignment and focus between Deere and our dealers on managing used inventory differently from previous cycles.

總的來說，當我回顧與經銷商的會議時，我對三個重要點抱持強烈的樂觀態度。第一，迪爾和我們的經銷商之間極其緊密的協調和關注，以不同於以往週期的方式管理二手庫存。

Two, our strategy of high quality iron, combined with world-class technology supported by the best dealers in the industry is a winning strategy that is delivering incremental value to our customer. And I heard a number of examples of this last week.

第二，我們的高品質鐵策略與業界最佳經銷商支援的世界級技術相結合，是一項制勝策略，可為我們的客戶帶來增量價值。上週我聽到了很多這樣的例子。

And three, that despite headwinds in the industry, there is still strong support for Deere and dealers to continue to transform in areas that adds significant customer value. Examples of this include even higher levels of tech utilization along with greater investment in the tech stack and life cycle solutions.

第三，儘管產業面臨阻力，迪爾和經銷商仍得到強而有力的支持，繼續在可顯著增加客戶價值的領域進行轉型。這方面的例子包括更高水準的技術利用率以及對技術堆疊和生命週期解決方案的更大投資。

Yeah, this is John. I'd like to add one additional point to share.

是的，這是約翰。我想補充一點來分享。

I recently spoke with one of our largest dealers in the US who said he does not expect this downturn to as prolonged as the last cycle. He noted that the proactive steps we are taking to manage inventory are reinforcing that sentiment.

我最近與我們在美國最大的經銷商之一進行了交談，他表示，他預計這次衰退不會像上一個週期那樣持續。他指出，我們為管理庫存而採取的積極措施正在強化這種情緒。

As Luke mentioned, Deere and our dealer network are working together to navigate this cycle differently. We are taking action more quickly and making more aggressive decisions to ensure that inventory levels remain balanced as markets softened and our dealers are working closely with each customer to better rationalize equipment replacement schedules this time. We fundamentally believe that these actions will lead to more favorable cycle dynamics than in previous downturns.

正如盧克所提到的，迪爾和我們的經銷商網路正在共同努力，以不同的方式駕馭這個週期。我們正在更快地採取行動並做出更積極的決策，以確保在市場疲軟的情況下庫存水平保持平衡，並且我們的經銷商正在與每個客戶密切合作，以更好地合理化這次的設備更換時間表。我們從根本上相信，這些行動將帶來比以往經濟低迷時期更有利的週期動力。

Thanks, Luke and John. That's a great summary on both the current state of the industry as well as the proactive measures we're taking to manage it.

謝謝，盧克和約翰。這是對行業現狀以及我們為管理行業所採取的積極措施的精彩總結。

Turning now to construction & forestry, we previously mentioned something increased volatility this quarter.

現在轉向建築和林業，我們之前提到本季波動加劇的情況。

Josh Beal, can you further break down what's happened and what that means for the final quarter of the year?

喬什·比爾（Josh Beal），您能進一步分析一下發生了什麼以及這對今年最後一個季度意味著什麼嗎？

Yeah, definitely, Josh.

是的，當然，喬許。

This is really a story of two businesses, earthmoving and roadbuilding. While our roadbuilding business continues to experience more stable volumes, we've seen some hesitation in earth moving equipment purchases. Project demand for our earthmoving customers has remained relatively unchanged. However, those same customers are seeing increased competition on their jobs as well as higher financing costs and overall higher equipment carrying costs following years of -- recent years of high inflation.

這其實是土方工程和築路兩項業務的故事。雖然我們的道路建設業務量持續保持穩定，但我們在土方設備採購方面卻出現了一些猶豫。我們的土方客戶的專案需求相對保持不變。然而，在近幾年的高通膨之後，這些客戶的工作競爭日益激烈，融資成本和整體設備攜帶成本也隨之上升。

It means that while still profitable many customers are experiencing lower profitability compared to just a year ago. And as a result, we are seeing some slowdown in order velocity, which is reflected in our guidance update.

這意味著，雖然仍然有利可圖，但許多客戶的獲利能力與一年前相比有所下降。因此，我們看到訂單速度有所放緩，這反映在我們的指導更新中。

Additionally, rental CapEx spending has diminished with investments in construction equipment at multiyear lows following years of robust re-fleeting. Recall that Deere, along with the industry, has been rebuilding our field inventory levels over the past several years. With the recent softening that we've seen, we are taking steps similar to those in our ag business to underproduce retail demand in both our construction and compact construction equipment segments through the remainder of the year to best position ourselves for 2025.

此外，隨著建築設備投資在經過多年的強勁更新後處於多年低點，租賃資本支出有所減少。回想一下，迪爾與整個行業一起在過去幾年中一直在重建我們的現場庫存水準。鑑於最近我們看到的經濟疲軟，我們正在採取與農業業務類似的措施，在今年剩餘時間內抑制建築和緊湊型建築設備領域的零售需求，以便為 2025 年做好最佳定位。

From a pricing perspective, we continue to see robust competition in the market. This, coupled with rising inventory levels, has required the deployment of additional incentives into the market resulting in net pricing declines this past quarter.

從定價角度來看，我們持續看到市場競爭激烈。再加上庫存水準上升，需要在市場上採取額外的激勵措施，導致上個季度的淨定價下降。

Great. Thanks, Josh.

偉大的。謝謝，喬許。

And now our for our final question. This quarter included a few special. Josh Jepsen, can you walk us through those as well as the overall state of the business before we open up the line to investors?

現在我們的最後一個問題。本季有一些特別的內容。喬許·傑普森（Josh Jepsen），在我們向投資者開放之前，您能否向我們介紹一下這些內容以及業務的整體狀況？

Yes, absolutely, Josh.

是的，絕對是，喬許。

I'd like to start by echoing John's appreciation to our entire John Deere team for their adaptability and resilience to the changes in demand and their continued commitment to delivering for our customers.

首先，我想表達約翰對整個約翰迪爾團隊的讚賞，感謝他們對需求變化的適應能力和彈性，以及他們對為客戶提供服務的持續承諾。

This quarter, we made difficult decisions to structure the business to align with current market conditions. This involve a mid-single-digit reduction in our global salaried workforce, resulting in onetime expense of approximately $150 million for the business, $125 million of which was booked in the third quarter, while delivering roughly $230 million in run-rate savings. The net impact for 2024 is expected to be an expense of about $25 million.

本季度，我們做出了艱難的決定來調整業務結構，以適應當前的市場狀況。這涉及我們全球受薪員工隊伍的中個位數減少，導致業務一次性費用約為 1.5 億美元，其中 1.25 億美元在第三季度預訂，同時節省了約 2.3 億美元的運行費用。 2024 年的淨影響預計約為 2,500 萬美元。

Given the velocity of the market pullback we've seen this year, this has also created volatility in our working capital. As a result, we've seen a downward revision to our operating cash flow guide. However, it's important to note that there are our cost management actions, whether it be our supply management teams that are driving down production costs, our focus on reducing inbound and outbound freight, or engineering teams, working diligently to design out costs from new equipment and retrofit solutions are yielding savings in 2024 from material and freight, which gives us confidence in our ability to deliver on our net income guide of approximately $7 billion this fiscal year.

鑑於今年我們看到的市場回檔速度，這也造成了我們營運資金的波動。因此，我們下調了營運現金流量指南。然而，值得注意的是，我們的成本管理行動，無論是我們的供應管理團隊降低生產成本，我們專注於減少進出貨運，還是工程團隊努力設計新設備的成本到2024 年，改造解決方案將節省材料和運費，這讓我們對本財年實現約70 億美元淨利潤目標的能力充滿信心。

And these cost management actions are an example of the many things our team is doing every day to drive a structurally better business that has capital available to invest in value-enhancing products, solutions, and support to help make our customers more productive, profitable, and sustainable each and every day. And as we do that, all stakeholders of John Deere will benefit.

這些成本管理行動是我們團隊每天所做的許多事情的一個例子，這些事情旨在推動結構更好的業務，擁有可用於投資於增值產品、解決方案和支援的資本，以幫助我們的客戶提高生產力、利潤、而且每天都可持續。當我們這樣做時，約翰迪爾的所有利益相關者都將從中受益。

Thanks Josh. Now let's open it up to questions from our investors.

謝謝喬希。現在讓我們接受投資人的提問。

(event instructions)

（活動說明）

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

傑米庫克 (Jamie Cook)，Truist 證券公司。

I guess just my first question or my one question -- I'll get back in queue. I was surprised you guys were able to raise your price assumptions for 2024 in precision and production ag to 2% from 1.5% just given the fundamentals. So can you talk to what the factors were behind that? Any color on pricing per region? And does that include discounting. And just receptivity to the price increases you announced for 2025?

我想這只是我的第一個問題或我的一個問題——我會回到隊列中。我很驚訝你們能夠在考慮到基本面的情況下將 2024 年精度和產量的價格假設從 1.5% 提高到 2%。那麼您能談談這背後的因素是什麼嗎？每個地區的定價有顏色嗎？這是否包括折扣。您是否願意接受您宣布的 2025 年價格上漲？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hi, thanks Jamie. Thanks for the question.

你好，謝謝傑米。謝謝你的提問。

Yeah. I mean, as you think about pricing for the year and we've talked, we tend to think about normalized pricing is in that range of 2% to 3%. And we've really seen that all year in both our North American market and in our European markets. As you know, as we've talked before in Brazil, we had been talking about negative price this year in 2024 with the high inventories that we had to enter the year, some notably in the quarter, we had actually flattish price realization, actually slight slightly positive in Brazil. So we've seen that turn a little bit. It harkens back to some of the stabilization that John mentioned in the market.

是的。我的意思是，當你考慮今年的定價時，我們已經討論過，我們傾向於認為正常化定價在 2% 到 3% 的範圍內。我們全年在北美市場和歐洲市場都確實看到了這一點。如您所知，正如我們之前在巴西討論過的那樣，我們一直在討論2024 年的負價格，因為我們必須進入這一年，特別是在本季度，我們的庫存量很高，實際上我們的價格實現持平，巴西略有積極。所以我們已經看到了一點轉變。這讓人回想起約翰提到的市場穩定情況。

Additionally, on the back half of the year, we had planned some incentives as we were facing used inventory levels. We didn't have to deploy as many of those in the quarter, and we're seeing favorable price there as well. As you talk about early order programs for 2025 and the price there, I think Luke gave some color on how that's building over the course of the year I think at a very sort of normal rate to what we've seen historically in time to build so that pricing seems appropriate.

此外，在今年下半年，我們規劃了一些激勵措施，因為我們面臨二手庫存水準。我們不必在本季度部署那麼多的產品，而且我們也看到了優惠的價格。當您談論2025 年的早期訂單計劃及其價格時，我認為盧克對這一年的建設情況進行了一些說明，我認為與我們歷史上所看到的建設速度相比，這是一個非常正常的速度因此定價似乎合適。

Hi, Jamie, it's Josh Jepsen. One thing I would add a little bit to your question is our incentives included in that number and they are. So when we talk about incremental pool funds that Luke mentioned to help move used in the full year that's in so that that raise in the net price from 1.5 to 2 for production and precision ag embeds what we're doing from an incentive perspective. So I think we are continuing to be disciplined in how we manage that. But also mindful of how we best position inventory, both new and used as we roll into '25. But thank you.

嗨，傑米，我是喬許傑普森。我想在你的問題中補充一點，那就是我們的激勵措施包含在這個數字中，而且確實如此。因此，當我們談論盧克提到的增量資金池資金以幫助全年使用時，生產和精準農業的淨價從 1.5 提高到 2 就嵌入了我們從激勵角度所做的事情。所以我認為我們在管理方式上將繼續遵守紀律。但也要注意，當我們進入 25 世紀時，我們如何最好地定位庫存，包括新的和二手的。但謝謝你。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略，摩根士丹利。

Thanks for taking my question and congrats on a solid quarter.

感謝您提出我的問題，並祝賀本季表現穩定。

Just wanted to dig in a little bit more into the construction segment. You talked about implementing an underproduction strategy similar to what you've been doing in ag. Can you talk about the magnitude of that, how much you're planning to under-produce? And you noted I think rising inventories. So as we think about how long this can persist, do you anticipate to for this to be continuing into fiscal 1Q or 2Q and just what the magnitude is that you think you need to work through in terms of underproduction and just how that maybe relates to your ability to get price in the next few quarters?

只是想更深入了解建築領域。您談到了實施類似於您在農業中所做的生產不足的策略。能談談您計劃生產不足的程度嗎？你注意到我認為庫存增加。因此，當我們考慮這種情況會持續多久時，您是否預計這種情況會持續到第一財季或第二財季，以及您認為需要解決生產不足問題的嚴重程度，以及這可能與您有能力在接下來的幾季獲得價格嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, thanks for the question, Angel.

是的，謝謝你的提問，天使。

Yeah, maybe starting on the field inventories. We -- as you recall, we have been building inventories over the past year or so but this year, construction equipment, pretty much producing in line with demand. We feel like we've got field inventories at a level that's very normal within our inventory band.

是的，也許從現場庫存開始。正如你所記得的，我們在過去一年左右的時間裡一直在建立庫存，但今年，建築設備幾乎是根據需求生產的。我們覺得我們的現場庫存水準在我們的庫存範圍內是非常正常的。

So as we mentioned, we did see some softening over the past quarter. We had a couple of months of down retail sales for the industry actually came out last night as well. So I think it's now three months running down retail sales for the industry and a little bit of softening in order velocity. And given that we made the decision to proactively bring down inventory levels to the lower end of those bands, again, sitting at pretty normal levels now on construction equipment. And so what that will amount to is about mid-single underproduct -- mid-single-digit underproduction in construction equipment for this year.

正如我們所提到的，我們確實看到過去一個季度出現了一些疲軟。事實上，我們昨晚也公佈了該行業零售額連續幾個月下降的情況。因此，我認為該行業的零售額現在已經連續三個月下降，訂單速度也略有放緩。鑑於我們決定主動將庫存水準降低到這些範圍的下限，現在建築設備的庫存水準再次處於相當正常的水準。因此，這相當於今年建築設備的中位數產量不足。

On compact construction, we were still building some inventory this year. We will underproduce a little bit in the fourth quarter there, but net for compact is still pretty much production in line, in fact, building inventories this year, net on compact construction.

在緊湊型建築方面，我們今年仍在建立一些庫存。我們第四季的產量將略有下降，但緊湊型淨產量仍然相當大，事實上，今年正在建立庫存，淨緊湊型建築。

Yes, Angela, I would say I think as you contemplate inventory levels and where we're planning -- as we look to execute this underproduction and see our retail plants come through in 4Q, we think that positions us really well for the year to come and would not expect to see dramatic changes there, but the guide would be or the goal would be to build in line with retail as we step forward. Thank you.

是的，安吉拉，我想說，我認為當你考慮庫存水平和我們的計劃時- 當我們希望執行這種生產不足並看到我們的零售工廠在第四季度完成時，我們認為這使我們今年處於非常有利的位置來到這裡，並不期望看到那裡發生巨大的變化，但指導方針或目標將是在我們前進的過程中與零售業保持一致。謝謝。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

塔米·扎卡里亞，摩根大通。

So I wanted to build on the pricing conversation. I think you mentioned 2% to 3% pricing in the EOP order books for seasonal ag products. Could you share any comment on what you're seeing on the construction side? Are there any orders in the books for next fiscal? And if so, can you comment on what pricing you're seeing for that segment?

所以我想以定價對話為基礎。我認為您在 EOP 訂單簿中提到了季節性農產品產品的 2% 至 3% 定價。能否分享一下您在施工上所看到的情況？下一財年有訂單嗎？如果是這樣，您能評論一下您看到的該細分市場的定價嗎？

Hey, Tami. We would never guide yet for '25 on pricing. I think definitely in the construction market, we talked about increased levels of price competition. We're seeing that. We did lower our full year guide down to 0.5 point for 2024 given some of the increased pressure. And then that would imply for Q4 in a flattish pricing for the segment. And so we're definitely balancing price with share as we navigate the competition in the market. But again, for the full year, we're expecting to see about 0.5 point of price.

嘿，塔米。我們永遠不會為 25 年的定價提供指導。我認為在建築市場上，我們確實談到了價格競爭的加劇。我們正在看到這一點。鑑於壓力增加，我們確實將 2024 年全年指引下調至 0.5 個百分點。這意味著第四季度該細分市場的定價持平。因此，在應對市場競爭時，我們肯定會在價格和份額之間取得平衡。但同樣，我們預計全年價格將上漲約 0.5 個百分點。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛。

John, in the prepared remarks, Luke, you mentioned this as well the focus on keeping this downturn shorter than in prior cycles. I'm wondering as you folks look at the moving pieces for '25 that you shared with us on this call. So sounds like we've got headwinds from weaker demand that you laid out in the early order program. But we've got tailwinds from underproduction of $2 billion of dealer inventory destock this year. We have list price increases and it sounds like there's some cost takeout opportunities. So I'm wondering if there are any other moving pieces that we should be keeping in mind as we think about '25 as consensus estimates have earnings is essentially flat '25 versus '24?

約翰，在準備好的發言中，盧克，你也提到了這一點，以及重點是讓這次衰退比之前的周期更短。我想知道你們在這次電話會議上與我們分享的 25 年的感人片段。聽起來我們因您在早期訂單計劃中提出的需求疲軟而遇到了阻力。但我們今年因生產不足而減少了 20 億美元的經銷商庫存，這對我們來說是有利的。我們的標價上漲了，聽起來似乎有一些成本削減的機會。因此，我想知道當我們考慮「25」時，我們是否應該記住任何其他動態因素，因為共識估計「25」與「24」的收益基本上持平？

Yes, I'll maybe start, Jerry and John, feel free to jump in.

是的，我也許會開始，傑瑞和約翰，請隨意加入。

I mean, certainly, as we think about the dynamics that we're seeing on early order programs, I think one thing to note is that the sprayer and planter EOPs when they were open last summer, we still had corn. They opened at -- corn was about $6 a bushel, and they closed at over $5 a bushel. And so Luke mentioned this in his comments that those are two product lines that were basically at peak volumes again in 2024.

我的意思是，當然，當我們考慮我們在早期訂單計劃中看到的動態時，我認為值得注意的一件事是，去年夏天噴霧機和播種機 EOP 開放時，我們仍然有玉米。玉米開盤價約為每蒲式耳 6 美元，收盤價超過每蒲式耳 5 美元。因此盧克在評論中提到了這一點，這兩條產品線在 2024 年基本上再次達到了產量高峰。

And so some early indication there as we're seeing that cycling. As Luke talked about down double digits on both of those, that's not necessarily a read-through to all product lines just given the dynamics of those particular individual product lines. So but given that and we've been talking about this all year, is the setup for controlling what we can control and that starts with inventory management. And so as we've talked in large ag, this is a global statement, but globally, high single-digit underproduction for the segment across all regions really setting us up to be well positioned at the low end of our inventory bands as we entered the year.

當我們看到這種循環時，有一些早期跡象。正如盧克談到的那樣，這兩個產品線都下降了兩位數，這並不一定是對所有產品線的通讀，只是考慮到這些特定的單一產品線的動態。因此，考慮到這一點，我們一整年都在討論這個問題，控制我們可以控制的內容的設定是從庫存管理開始的。正如我們在大型農業中所討論的那樣，這是一個全球性的聲明，但在全球範圍內，所有地區該細分市場的高個位數生產不足確實使我們在進入時處於庫存帶的低端。

In addition to that, there's been by making those production adjustments, there have been some cost headwinds that have come into the business this year. As we've ramped down production, we've seen some overhead inefficiencies as we've made those adjustments so that nets out to a positive tailwind next year as well as some of the cost actions that we've taken. Josh Jepsen mentioned the run rate savings from the workforce adjustment that will be tailwinds into '25 as well. So again, we don't know fully what the year looks like in 2025. We are getting some early reads, but we're doing what we can both from an inventory and cost standpoint that set us up.

除此之外，由於進行了生產調整，今年該行業出現了一些成本阻力。當我們減少產量時，我們發現了一些管理費用效率低下的情況，因為我們進行了這些調整，以便在明年帶來積極的推動力以及我們採取的一些成本行動。喬許·傑普森 (Josh Jepsen) 提到，勞動調整帶來的運行率節省也將成為 25 年的順風車。再說一次，我們並不完全知道 2025 年會是什麼樣子。

Yeah, Jerry, thanks for the question.

是的，傑瑞，謝謝你的提問。

One of the things we did right away when we started to see some demand soften, we went back and looked at prior periods of where we saw the industry start to cycle downward or soften and we saw a lot of mistakes that we made and frankly the industry made as well. And we decided this time we were going to control what we can control and we were going to act with speed, action, in tight collaboration with our dealer channel. And that's all about taking out inventories, under-producing retail demand. It's all about taking out excess costs and restructuring the business to function in a much leaner environment in the past that might have taken us to the 2.5 years to react. We reacted in the first quarter, and I'm really proud of the team for doing that. And while the changes are difficult and sometimes it's hard on the employees, it's the right thing to do.

當我們開始看到一些需求疲軟時，我們立即做的一件事是，我們回顧了之前我們看到行業開始下滑或疲軟的時期，我們看到了我們犯的很多錯誤，坦率地說工業也製造了。我們決定這次我們將控制我們能控制的事情，我們將與我們的經銷商通路密切合作，快速行動。這一切都是為了消除庫存，導致零售需求不足。這一切都是為了消除多餘的成本並重組業務，以便在過去更加精簡的環境中運作，而這可能需要 2.5 年的時間才能做出反應。我們在第一節就做出了反應，我為球隊做到了這一點感到非常自豪。雖然改變很困難，有時對員工來說也很困難，但這是正確的做法。

The other thing, Jerry, I'd just like to mention is the team also knows it's important while you're doing this to remain focused on what matters and that's disciplined execution, continue to execute in the factory, obviously proactive inventory management. We've got to build high-quality product and make sure that we're meeting our customers needs and then cost the business, structure the business in a way that allows us to be continue to be profitable and generate the money we need to continue to reinvest in our business in our portfolio.

傑瑞，我想提的另一件事是，團隊也知道，在你這樣做的時候，保持專注於重要的事情是很重要的，那就是有紀律的執行，繼續在工廠執行，顯然是主動的庫存管理。我們必須打造高品質的產品，確保滿足客戶的需求，然後計算業務成本，以一種能夠讓我們繼續盈利並產生繼續運營所需資金的方式構建業務對我們的投資組合中的業務進行再投資。

So thank you for that question.

謝謝你提出這個問題。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

大衛·拉索，Evercore ISI。

The [spirit] of the question is related to how to look at the fourth quarter. People trying to figure out what's that run rate annualized, adjusting for seasonality.

這個問題的【精神】涉及到如何看待第四季。人們試圖找出年化運行率是多少，並根據季節性進行調整。

I guess I have a question, but just clarification first on the fourth quarter. The net income guide for the year implies EPS for the fourth quarter around $4.20. But if you run it from the business segment level, it's more implying only $3. So I don't know if it's something one-off in the fourth quarter, like sometimes it's the nonservice pension income, right? When that's a big income flow from better asset returns. It's not in the segments, it's another, but we have the tax rate guide. We have all the segment guide. We have [finco]. So just given the importance of how people are looking into fourth quarter, what's that $1.20 EPS gap?

我想我有一個問題，但先在第四季澄清一下。今年的淨利潤指引意味著第四季度每股收益約為 4.20 美元。但如果你從業務部門層級來運作它，更意味著只有 3 美元。所以我不知道這是否是第四季度一次性的事情，就像有時是非服務退休金收入一樣，對吧？當這是來自更好的資產回報的大量收入流。它不在細分市場中，而是在另一個細分市場中，但我們有稅率指南。我們有所有分段指南。我們有[finco]。那麼，考慮到人們如何看待第四季的重要性，每股收益 1.20 美元的差距是多少？

And the real question is, are -- we have the fourth quarter, we have a lot of shutdowns. Can we still think about the first quarter of '25, the second quarter '25 in a normal seasonal way for large -- call it, global ag, right? Global ag is usually down 20% first quarter versus the fourth, and then it goes up over time. It's like 50%.

真正的問題是，第四季度，我們有許多工廠停工。我們是否還能以正常的季節性方式思考 25 年第一季和 25 年第二季——稱之為全球農業，對吧？第一季全球農業通常比第四季下降 20%，然後隨著時間的推移而上升。好像是50%。

Is the fourth quarter in that similar pattern? the setup that we should think of it as down 20 in the first quarter and then goes up from there or is the fourth quarter so low, it doesn't have to go down sequentially. So that's the spirit of the question that fourth quarter number, just the clarification and how to think about normal seasonality? Have we altered that with how deep the cuts are in the fourth quarter.

第四季是否也有類似的情況？我們應該將其視為第一季下降 20，然後從那裡上升，或者第四季度如此低，因此不必依次下降。這就是第四季數字問題的實質，只是澄清以及如何考慮正常的季節性？我們是否透過第四季的削減幅度來改變這一點？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hey, David. Thanks for the question. This is Jepsen.

嘿，大衛。謝謝你的提問。這是傑普森。

I think maybe to start, we don't think the fourth quarter is indicative of how you would run into 2025. And the biggest reason are the underproduction and those shutdowns that we've talked about. So Waterloo, eight series tractors, half of the production days in fourth quarter were not producing. Harvester combine to something like two-thirds of the production days were not operating.

我想也許首先，我們認為第四季並不能預示 2025 年的情況。所以滑鐵盧，八個系列拖拉機，第四季一半的生產天都沒有生產。聯合收割機大約有三分之二的生產天沒有運作。

Similarly, Mannheim, Josh Rohleder mentioned a third of days, we're under-producing pretty significantly and construction equipment in the fourth quarter as well. So that is typically we have some shut down more on the seasonal product like combines. We've pulled that back much more significantly in the fourth quarter.

同樣，曼海姆的喬許·羅勒德（Josh Rohleder）提到，在第三天的時間裡，我們的生產明顯不足，第四季的建築設備也是如此。因此，我們通常會更多地關閉一些季節性產品，例如聯合收割機。我們在第四季度更大幅度地減少了這一點。

And you're right, margins EPS will suffer as a result of that. But we don't think that is a good launching point from an EPS perspective or how we run from a margin perspective into 1Q '25. While we don't have a 1Q '25 guide, I would say because of that our production probably the typical seasonal patterns in sales should not follow what maybe they would have historically.

你是對的，每股利潤率將因此受到影響。但從每股盈餘的角度來看，或從利潤率的角度來看，我們認為這不是一個很好的啟動點，進入 25 年第一季。雖然我們沒有 25 年第一季的指南，但我想說，因為我們的生產，銷售中的典型季節性模式可能不應該遵循歷史上可能存在的模式。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

And the gap in the fourth quarter? Oh, come on, the gap in the fourth quarter. What's -- clarification, please.

那麼第四季的差距呢？哦，來吧，第四節的差距。什麼是——請澄清一下。

I think what you see there, it's really the operational aspects of what we see flowing through from a margin perspective. So I think that's the biggest driver. I don't see anything significant from below the line that would drive a significant delta there.

我認為你在那裡看到的，實際上是我們從利潤角度看到的營運方面的情況。所以我認為這是最大的驅動力。我沒有看到該線以下有任何重大因素會推動那裡出現顯著的三角洲變化。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We can talk (multiple speakers) but it is a pretty big gap.

我們可以交談（多位發言者），但差距相當大。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默。

I'll do a little bit of clarification on some of the prepared comments and some of the Q&A afterwards. (technical difficulty) to understand the inventory to sales ratio in the third quarter looks like that was flat from 2Q. Just help us understand the difference in end user demand versus this production declines? And then how we should still think about building to a target of 10% inventory to sales? Is that still the outlook? Just a little bit more granularity on some of those comments that you made on the inventory to sales ratio.

之後我將對一些準備好的評論和一些問答進行一些澄清。 （技術難度）了解第三季的庫存銷售比看起來與第二季持平。只是幫助我們了解最終用戶需求與產量下降的差異嗎？那我們還應該如何考慮建立庫存佔銷售額 10% 的目標呢？這仍然是前景嗎？只是更詳細地闡述您對庫存與銷售比率所做的一些評論。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hey, Chris, and thanks. Thanks for the question.

嘿，克里斯，謝謝。謝謝你的提問。

As you talk about greater than 100 horsepower tractors, but you're right, flattish from IS ratio quarter over quarter. I think it's important that's such a broad range. The 100 horsepower, it's better to look at. If you look out 220-plus, we're now down about 20% -- down to about 20% IS ratio as we exit Q3, which is a pretty normal spot to be. And we are -- if you talk about that in absolute units, it's about a 10% reduction in absolute units in the field for over the quarter.

當您談論超過 100 馬力的拖拉機時，您是對的，IS 比率季度環比持平。我認為如此廣泛的範圍很重要。 100馬力，還是比較好看的。如果你關注 220+，我們現在下降了大約 20%——當我們退出第三季度時，IS 比率下降到大約 20%，這是一個非常正常的情況。如果您以絕對單位來談論的話，那麼本季該領域的絕對單位大約減少了 10%。

So we are seeing the progress that we anticipated. As we mentioned last year, we talked about about -- we ended the year about 15% inventory to sales on 220 horsepower plus. We expect to be at that level or better. So maybe a little bit higher than we were talking 10% less last quarter, but still in our range of at or lower than 15% IS ratio that we exited at 220 plus last year.

所以我們看到了我們預期的進展。正如我們去年提到的，我們談到 - 我們年底的庫存與 220 馬力以上的銷量相比減少了約 15%。我們期望達到這個水平或更好。因此，可能比我們上個季度所說的減少 10% 稍高一點，但仍處於或低於 15% IS 比率的範圍內，去年我們退出時的 IS 比率為 220 以上。

Hey, Kristen, this is Jepsen.

嘿，克莉絲汀，這是傑普森。

I think one thing too. If you look at 100 plus, we were around 30%, 31% inventory sales ratio. I think the industry ex-Deere is closer to 70. And so we're running particularly lean in that. We feel feel good about that and how we're executing in that regard. So we're going to keep -- as John mentioned, controlling what we can there and managing inventories and working really closely with the dealers to execute on those new end used plants.

我也覺得一件事。如果你看看 100 多個，我們的庫存銷售比率約為 30%、31%。我認為前迪爾公司的產業已經接近 70 歲了。我們對此以及我們在這方面的執行方式感覺良好。因此，正如約翰所提到的那樣，我們將繼續控制我們所能做到的，管理庫存，並與經銷商密切合作，以執行這些新的最終二手工廠。

So thank you.

所以謝謝你。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，BMO 資本市場。

Maybe drilling down more into your See & Spray early feedback commentary. Maybe you could talk about -- you talked about how your the efficacy, the ROIs are hitting, what you thought, and some of the early days here. Can you maybe elaborate on that?

也許可以更深入地了解您的 See & Spray 早期回饋評論。也許你可以談談——你談到了你的效率、投資報酬率、你的想法以及早期的一些情況。能詳細說明一下嗎？

What are the components that you're really seeing that are working like you thought? What are the lessons you've learned that maybe you've got to work on and do a bit better if you get some real experience with some volume?

您真正看到哪些組件按照您的想法工作？您學到了哪些經驗教訓，如果您在一定數量上獲得了一些實際經驗，也許您需要繼續努力並做得更好？

Hey, Joel. Welcome to call. Good to hear from you.Yeah, I'll start. And then maybe, Luke, you want to jump in with some feedback from the field as.

嘿，喬爾。歡迎來電。很高興收到你的來信。盧克，也許你想加入一些現場的回饋。

As you'll recall, Joel, this year in 2024 was a limited release of See & Spray both on our Ultimate Solution (inaudible) Ultimate Solution and on the premium retrofit. And I think we've been very, very encouraged by the results in the field for those operators that have gotten in and used the technology.

Joel，您可能還記得，2024 年，See & Spray 在我們的 Ultimate Solution（聽不清楚）Ultimate Solution 和高級改裝版上限量發布。我認為對於那些已經進入並使用該技術的運營商來說，我們對該領域的成果感到非常非常鼓舞。

Josh Jepsen mentioned they're seeing savings on their herbicide at or better than their expectations of zero pricing seems for a premium as an example, greater than 50% savings for the folks that had it in the field?

喬許·傑普森(Josh Jepsen) 提到，他們看到除草劑的節省量等於或高於他們對零定價的預期，這似乎是溢價，例如，對於在田間使用該除草劑的人來說，節省了50% 以上？

Yeah, I think what you're seeing is -- it is a new technology and Josh Jepsen mentioned this as well, that changes a lot about how our growers do their operations, everything from how they buy their chemical, how they tender their chemical in the field. The efficacy also drives the change of operation. I think you're seeing customers figuring that out in the first year of use.

是的，我想你看到的是——這是一項新技術，喬什·傑普森也提到了這一點，它極大地改變了我們種植者的經營方式，從他們如何購買化學品、如何供應化學品等各方面。功效也推動了操作的改變。我認為您會看到客戶在使用的第一年就明白了這一點。

Some of our top end customers, putting a lot of acres on See & Spray as they're figuring out how to use it. I think you've had some others in that segment of that limited release this year that are in a trial phase as they figure out how to best implement that into their operations. But I think the net takeaway is that everyone's feeling good about the technology and the efficacy and now it's about implementing and adopting it into their business.

我們的一些高端客戶在 See & Spray 上投入了大量土地，因為他們正在研究如何使用它。我認為今年有限發布的那部分中還有其他一些人處於試用階段，因為他們正在研究如何最好地將其實施到他們的營運中。但我認為最重要的是，每個人都對這項技術和功效感到滿意，現在需要實施並應用到他們的業務中。

I don't know, Luke, if there is anything you want to add.

路克，我不知道你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think that's well said, Josh. As you look at the performance we've seen across 2024, we've been incredibly encouraged by number of acres that our -- See & Spray utilized. We're also encouraged by the feedback we're hearing from both customers and dealers.

我認為這句話說得很好，喬許。當您看到我們在 2024 年所看到的表現時，我們對 See & Spray 使用的英畝數感到非常鼓舞。我們也對客戶和經銷商的回饋感到鼓舞。

And Josh, you said it earlier. I think one of the biggest opportunities we continue to have is working with the growers as they think about it from an overall production system in terms of how do they do their tendering and how do they do the setup. And those are things that we continue to collaborate with our dealers on to help those customers be able to work through those [opportunities].

喬什，你之前說過。我認為我們繼續擁有的最大機會之一是與種植者合作，因為他們從整個生產系統的角度思考如何進行招標和如何進行設置。我們將繼續與經銷商合作，幫助這些客戶抓住這些[機會]。

Yeah, this is Jepsen.

是的，這是傑普森。

Maybe one thing to add, just for perspective. When we rolled out ExactEmerge, so really revolutionizing planting, doubling the speed of planting, more precise in terms of seed placement. First year that was 2015, and we did about 10% take rate. So to be in not a terribly dissimilar spot with See & Spray, which is arguably probably a bigger step function change and maybe a bit more disruptive to how you have to plan and execute. We think it's a good start. Obviously, tons of opportunity, and we're going to keep working on this and delivering that outcome for the customer becomes really important.

也許需要補充一件事，僅供參考。當我們推出 ExactEmerge 時，真正徹底改變了種植方式，使種植速度加倍，種子放置更加精確。第一年是 2015 年，我們的使用率約為 10%。因此，與 See & Spray 的情況並沒有太大不同，這可能是一個更大的步驟功能變化，並且可能對您的計劃和執行方式更具破壞性。我們認為這是一個好的開始。顯然，有大量的機會，我們將繼續努力，為客戶提供成果變得非常重要。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mig Dobre, Baird.

米格·多布雷，貝爾德。

Just a clarification on inventories for me as well. If I look at your slide 15, where you discussed Canada and US inventories. The way I'm interpreting that table, to me that looks like your unit inventories in both two-wheel drive tractors and combines are flat versus a year ago. Do correct me if I'm wrong here, but if that's the case and I understand it correctly then I'm curious as to how your production cuts actually flows through here?

我也只是對庫存進行澄清。如果我看一下您的投影片 15，您在其中討論了加拿大和美國的庫存。我解釋該表的方式，對我來說，兩輪驅動拖拉機和聯合收割機的單位庫存與一年前持平。如果我錯了，請糾正我，但如果情況確實如此並且我理解正確，那麼我很好奇你們的減產實際上是如何流到這裡的？

I mean, is there a natural lag that we should be thinking about and maybe think about what you're going to report next quarter or Q1 of '25, how should we think about these metrics given your production cuts?

我的意思是，是否存在我們應該考慮的自然滯後，也許考慮一下你們下個季度或 25 年第一季將要報告的內容，考慮到你們的減產，我們應該如何考慮這些指標？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, no, great question, Mig. Good to hear from you.

是的，不，很好的問題，米格。很高興收到你的來信。

Yeah. I mean, I think as you -- as we talk about North America, specifically in the inventory there, recall that primarily for North America has been a focus on building in line with retail. The one segment of the industry where we're under-producing is in row-crop tractors, and you're seeing that pull down into 220 horsepower plus.

是的。我的意思是，我認為，當我們談論北美時，特別是那裡的庫存，請記住，北美主要關注的是與零售一致的建設。我們生產不足的行業領域是中耕作物拖拉機，您會發現其功率已降至 220 馬力以上。

Again, a lot of that is going to happen in the fourth quarter. We mentioned Waterloo being shut down half the days in the quarter. So the significant underproduction quarter on top of that Q4 for tractor retail tends to be a very strong retail quarter as well. So that's going to be a big quarter for drawdown on the row crop side, but you're going to see underproduction in combines as well. That's part of normal seasonality. You're probably having some more underproduction this year.

同樣，很多事情將在第四季發生。我們提到滑鐵盧在本季有一半的時間被關閉。因此，拖拉機零售業第四季生產嚴重不足的季度往往也是一個非常強勁的零售季度。因此，這將是中耕作物減產的一個重要季度，但聯合收割機的產量也將不足。這是正常季節性的一部分。今年你的產量可能會更多。

Again, Josh Jepsen mentioned, two-thirds of the days harvester will be shut down in the quarter. So we'll have some significant drawdown there. So we are very much in line with normal seasonality and a lot of those product line. But again, you'll see that typical drawdown and probably greater than normal drawdown in Q4.

喬許·傑普森再次提到，本季收割機將有三分之二的天數關閉。因此，我們將在那裡進行一些重大的削減。所以我們非常符合正常的季節性和很多這樣的產品線。但同樣，您會在第四季度看到典型的回撤，並且可能大於正常回撤。

Yeah, Josh, I think another important point here is in my career, I've never witnessed the level of alignment with our dealer network that we have today. Focused on proactively managing this cycle while investing in our future together, our dealers are this time playing a critical role in providing differentiated support that is critical to uptime, reliability, and overall customer support. So we have full alignment with our dealers. They're working on inventories and are continuing to serve the customers in industry leading ways. So we're really pleased with where we are.

是的，喬什，我認為另一個重要的一點是在我的職業生涯中，我從未見過我們今天與經銷商網路的協調程度。我們的經銷商專注於主動管理這一週期，同時共同投資我們的未來，這次在提供差異化支援方面發揮關鍵作用，這對正常運行時間、可靠性和整體客戶支援至關重要。因此，我們與經銷商完全保持一致。他們正在處理庫存，並繼續以領先業界的方式為客戶提供服務。所以我們對目前的情況非常滿意。

Thanks for the question, Mig. We've got time for one more.

謝謝你的提問，米格。我們還有時間再來一場。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。

Just had a question for you guys on decrementals in the fourth quarter. I was hoping you could frame how big the under-absorption impact would be from under-production across (technical difficulty)? So for example, production and precision seems like your decrementals are in the 15% range versus a more typical 35%. I was hoping you walk through those moving pieces.

剛剛向你們提出了一個關於第四季減量的問題。我希望你能描述一下生產不足（技術難度）對吸收不足的影響有多大？例如，產量和精度的減量似乎在 15% 範圍內，而更典型的為 35%。我希望你能走過那些感人的片段。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Chad, this is Jepsen.

查德，這是傑普森。

I think, yeah, I mean, decrementals a bit higher in 4Q compared to what we've done through the year. The underproduction, the biggest driver, far and away. I don't have a good impact on just the fourth quarter. But if you look at the full year, the underproduction is probably at 1.5 to 2 points of margin drag, and that's more than what we would have contemplated earlier in the year, but in that range for the full year and fair to say, the majority of that impacts 4Q and a bit to David's question, really weighs on what we see from an absolute margin perspective, but also decrementals in the quarter.

我認為，是的，我的意思是，與我們全年所做的相比，第四季度的減幅要高一些。生產不足，是最大的推動力，遙不可及。我僅對第四季度沒有產生良好的影響。但如果你看看全年，生產不足可能會導致利潤率下降 1.5 到 2 個百分點，這比我們今年早些時候預期的要高，但在全年的這個範圍內，公平地說，其中大部分影響了第四季度，對大衛的問題也有一點影響，這確實影響了我們從絕對利潤率角度看到的情況，但也影響了本季的下降。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks. That's all the time we have for today. We appreciate everybody calling in, and thanks for joining us.

謝謝。這就是我們今天的全部時間了。我們感謝大家的來電，並感謝您加入我們。

Thank you all for participating in the Deere & Company third quarter earnings conference call. That concludes the call for today. You may disconnect at this time and have a great rest of your day.

感謝大家參加迪爾公司第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開連線並好好休息一天。