強鹿 (DE) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Deere & Company First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加迪爾公司第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Josh Beal, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監喬許‧比爾先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Hello. Welcome, and thank you for joining us on today's call. Joining me on the call today are John May, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Josh Jepsen, Chief Financial Officer; Aaron Wetzel, Vice President, Production Systems for Production and Precision ag; and Josh Rohleder, Manager, Investor Communications.

你好。歡迎並感謝您加入我們今天的電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長約翰‧梅 (John May)；喬許‧傑普森，財務長； Aaron Wetzel，Production and Precision ag 生產系統副總裁；喬希‧羅勒德 (Josh Rohleder)，投資人溝通經理。

Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's first quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal 2024. After that, we'll respond to your questions.

今天，我們將仔細研究迪爾第一季的收益，然後花一些時間討論我們的市場和我們目前對 2024 財年的展望。之後，我們將回答您的問題。

Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.

請注意，我們提供了幻燈片來補充今天早上的電話會議。您可以在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 上存取它們。

First, a reminder, this call is broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited.

首先提醒一下，本次通話在網路上進行現場直播，並進行錄音，以供迪爾公司將來傳輸和使用。未經迪爾明確書面同意，嚴禁對本受版權保護的廣播的任何部分進行任何其他使用、錄製或傳輸。

Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

電話會議（包括問答環節）的參與者同意，他們在所有媒體上的肖像和言論可以被儲存並用作財報電話會議的一部分。

This call includes forward-looking statements concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to uncertainties, risks, changes in circumstances and other factors that are difficult to predict. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K, Risk Factors in the Annual Form 10-K, as updated by reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

本次電話會議包括有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述會受到不確定性、風險、環境變化和其他難以預測的因素的影響。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊包含在公司最新的 8-K 表格、年度 10-K 表格中的風險因素中，並根據向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告進行了更新。

This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings and Events.

此電話會議還可能包括不符合美國公認會計準則 (GAAP) 的財務措施。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比 GAAP 措施的調節，已包含在新聞稿中，並發佈在我們網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的「季度收益和事件」下。

I'll now turn the call over to Josh Rohleder.

我現在將把電話轉給喬許·羅勒德。

Good morning. John Deere completed the first quarter, demonstrating solid execution across the cycle. Financial results for the quarter included an 18.5% margin for the equipment operations. Fundamentals in the end markets that we serve remain supportive of equipment replacement demand. Ag fundamentals, while down from the record highs of the last few years, have returned to near mid-cycle levels.

早安.約翰迪爾完成了第一季的業績，展現了整個週期的穩健執行力。該季度的財務表現包括設備營運利潤率為 18.5%。我們所服務的終端市場的基本面仍然支援設備更換需求。農業基本面雖然低於過去幾年的歷史高點，但已恢復到接近週期中期的水平。

In Construction and Forestry, we see fundamentals stabilizing at levels supportive of demand across most markets. This demand backdrop is reflected in our order books. While fleet replenishment is moderating, our order books remain at healthy levels, representative of normalized volumes. Notably, our first quarter performance demonstrates the structural business improvements that we've achieved, enabling us to deliver higher levels of profitability across all points in the business cycle.

在建築和林業方面，我們看到基本面穩定在支持大多數市場需求的水平。這種需求背景反映在我們的訂單中。雖然船隊補貨正在放緩，但我們的訂單仍保持在健康水平，代表正常數量。值得注意的是，我們第一季的業績證明了我們所實現的結構性業務改進，使我們能夠在商業週期的所有點上提供更高水平的盈利能力。

Slide 3 begins with the results for the first quarter. Net sales and revenues were down 4% to $12.185 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were down 8% to $10.486 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $1.751 billion or $6.23 per diluted share.

投影片 3 從第一季的結果開始。淨銷售額和收入下降 4%，至 121.85 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額下降 8%，至 104.86 億美元。迪爾公司應佔淨利潤為 17.51 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 6.23 美元。

Turning now to our individual segments. We begin with the production and precision ag business on Slide 4. Net sales of $4.849 billion were down 7% compared to the first quarter last year, primarily due to lower shipment volumes, which were partially offset by price realization. Price realization was positive by about 4 points. Currency translation was also positive by roughly 1 point. Operating profit was $1.045 billion, resulting in a 21.6% operating margin for the segment. The year-over-year decrease was, primarily due to lower shipment volumes and higher SA&G and R&D expenses. These were partially offset by price realization.

現在轉向我們的各個部分。我們從幻燈片 4 上的生產和精密農業業務開始。淨銷售額為 48.49 億美元，比去年第一季下降 7%，主要是由於出貨量下降，但部分被價格實現所抵消。價格實現上漲約 4 個百分點。貨幣換算也上漲了約 1 個百分點。營業利益為 10.45 億美元，該部門的營業利潤率為 21.6%。年比下降的主要原因是出貨量減少以及 SA&G 和研發費用增加。這些被價格實現部分抵銷。

Moving to Small Ag and Turf on Slide 5. Net sales were down 19%, totaling $2.425 billion in the first quarter as a result of lower shipment volumes, partially offset by price realization. Price realization was positive by just over 3 points. Currency was also positive by roughly 0.5 point. Operating profit declined year-over-year to $326 million, resulting in a 13.4% operating margin. The decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and higher SA&G and R&D expenses, which were partially offset by price realization and lower production costs.

轉向幻燈片 5 上的小型農業和草坪。由於出貨量下降，第一季淨銷售額下降 19%，總計 24.25 億美元，但部分被價格實現所抵消。價格實現上漲略多於 3 個百分點。貨幣也上漲約 0.5 點。營業利益年減至 3.26 億美元，營業利益率為 13.4%。下降的主要原因是出貨量減少以及 SA&G 和研發費用增加，但部分被價格實現和生產成本降低所抵消。

Slide 6 gives our industry outlook for ag and turf markets globally. We continue to expect large ag equipment industry sales in the U.S. and Canada to decline 10% to 15%, trending closer to the lower end of that range, as normalizing farm fundamentals and elevated interest rates are somewhat tempered by resilient farm balance sheets, lower input costs relative to record peaks seen over the last few years and fleet age, which even after multiple years of strong replacement, remains at or above long-term averages.

幻燈片 6 給出了我們對全球農業和草坪市場的行業展望。我們繼續預期美國和加拿大的大型農業設備產業銷售額將下降10% 至15%，趨勢接近該範圍的下限，因為農場基本面正常化和利率上昇在一定程度上受到彈性農場資產負債表的影響，較低的水平相對於過去幾年創紀錄的峰值和機隊年齡，投入成本即使經過多年的強勁更新，仍保持在或高於長期平均水平。

For small ag and turf in the U.S. and Canada, industry demand estimates remain down 5% to 10%. The Dairy and Livestock segment continues to remain healthy, thanks to elevated cattle and hay prices. The compact utility tractor market remains soft, as the industry works to bring down inventory levels, while demand for turf products has stabilized.

對於美國和加拿大的小型農業和草坪業，行業需求預計仍將下降 5% 至 10%。由於牛和乾草價格上漲，乳製品和畜牧業繼續保持健康。緊湊型多用途拖拉機市場仍然疲軟，因為該行業努力降低庫存水平，而草坪產品的需求已經穩定。

Moving to Europe. The industry is now forecasted to be down 10% to 15%. Demand is expected to be softest, Central and Eastern Europe, as local commodity markets remain disrupted by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Western Europe is faring better, although uncertainty related to current cash crop proceeds, ag policy changes and high interest rates is increasing caution for some customers.

搬到歐洲。目前預計該行業將下降 10% 至 15%。中歐和東歐的需求預計最為疲軟，因為當地大宗商品市場仍受到烏克蘭持續衝突的干擾。西歐的情況較好，儘管與當前經濟作物收益、農業政策變化和高利率相關的不確定性使一些客戶更加謹慎。

In South America, industry sales of tractors and combines are expected to be down around 10%, continuing the demand moderation that began in 2023. Brazil, in particular, is experiencing adverse weather conditions in the current growing season. Coupled with high interest rates, demand is expected to remain down from recent record highs.

在南美洲，拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷售量預計將下降 10% 左右，延續 2023 年開始的需求放緩趨勢。尤其是巴西，在當前的生長季節正經歷不利的天氣條件。再加上高利率，預計需求將持續低於近期的歷史高點。

Argentina is expected to deliver strong ag production after multiple years of drought, while the industry will remain regulated by ongoing economic challenges. Industry sales in Asia remain forecasted to be down moderately.

經過多年乾旱，阿根廷預計將實現強勁的農業生產，而該行業仍將受到持續經濟挑戰的監管。預計亞洲的行業銷售額仍將小幅下降。

Next, our segment forecast begin on Slide 7. For production and precision ag, net sales are forecasted to be down around 20% for the full year. The forecast assumes roughly 1.5 points of positive price realization for the full year and minimal currency impact. For the segment's operating margin, our full year forecast is now between 21.5% and 22.5%, reflecting the further tempering net sales as demand normalizes.

接下來，我們的細分市場預測從幻燈片 7 開始。對於生產和精密農業，預計全年淨銷售額將下降 20% 左右。該預測假設全年價格實現約 1.5 個百分點，貨幣影響最小。對於該部門的營業利潤率，我們的全年預測目前在 21.5% 至 22.5% 之間，反映出隨著需求正常化，淨銷售額進一步放緩。

Slide 8 shows our forecast for the small ag and turf segment. We expect net sales to remain down between 10% and 15%. This guidance now includes 1.5 points of positive price realization and flat currency translation. The segment's operating margin remains between 15% and 16%.

幻燈片 8 顯示了我們對小型農業和草坪細分市場的預測。我們預計淨銷售額將繼續下降 10% 至 15%。該指導現在包括 1.5 個點的正價格實現和固定貨幣換算。該部門的營業利潤率維持在 15% 至 16% 之間。

Shifting to Construction and Forestry on Slide 9. Net sales for the quarter were roughly flat year-over-year at $3.212 billion, with positive price realization offset by lower shipment volumes. Price realization was positive by nearly 3 points. Currency translation was also positive by just under 1 point. Operating profit of $566 million was down year-over-year, resulting in a 17.6% operating margin, due primarily to higher production costs, lower shipment volumes, unfavorable currency translation and higher SA&G and R&D expenses. These were partially offset by price realization and a favorable sales mix.

投影片 9 轉向建築和林業。本季淨銷售額與去年同期基本持平，為 32.12 億美元，但積極的價格實現被出貨量下降所抵消。價格實現上漲近 3 個百分點。貨幣換算也漲了不到 1 個百分點。營業利潤年減 5.66 億美元，營業利潤率下降 17.6%，這主要是由於生產成本上升、出貨量下降、不利的貨幣換算以及 SA&G 和研發費用增加。這些被價格實現和有利的銷售組合部分抵消。

Turning now to our 2024 Construction and Forestry industry outlook on Slide 10. Industry sales for earthmoving equipment in the U.S. and Canada are now expected to be flat to down 5%, while compact construction equipment in the U.S. and Canada is expected to be flat.

現在轉向幻燈片 10 上的 2024 年建築和林業行業展望。美國和加拿大土方設備的行業銷售額目前預計將持平或下降 5%，而美國和加拿大的緊湊型建築設備預計將持平。

Improvements in the industry outlook are reflective of a better-than-expected demand backdrop and stabilized optimism through the balance of the year, as dealer inventories return to more normal levels.

行業前景的改善反映了好於預期的需求背景以及隨著經銷商庫存恢復到較正常水平而在今年餘下時間裡樂觀情緒趨於穩定。

End markets remain healthy, with single-family housing starts improving, infrastructure spending continuing to increase and elevated manufacturing investment levels offset by further declines in commercial investments.

終端市場保持健康，單戶住宅開工改善，基礎設施支出持續增加，製造業投資水準上升被商業投資的進一步下降所抵消。

Global forestry markets are expected to be down around 10%, as all global markets continue to be challenged. Global road building markets are forecasted to be roughly flat, with strong infrastructure spending in the U.S., offset by continued softness in Europe.

由於全球所有市場持續面臨挑戰，全球林業市場預計將下降 10% 左右。預計全球道路建設市場將大致持平，美國基礎建設支出強勁，但被歐洲持續疲軟所抵銷。

Moving to this Construction and Forestry segment outlook on Slide 11. 2024 net sales are now forecasted to be down between 5% and 10%. Net sales guidance for the year includes about 1.5 points of positive price realization and flat currency translation. The segment's operating margin remains projected between 17% and 18%.

轉到幻燈片 11 上的建築和林業部門前景。目前預計 2024 年淨銷售額將下降 5% 至 10%。今年的淨銷售指導包括約 1.5 個百分點的正價格實現和固定的貨幣換算。該部門的營業利潤率預計仍維持在 17% 至 18% 之間。

Transitioning to our financial services operations on Slide 12. Worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere & Company in the first quarter was $207 million. The increase in net income was mainly due to a higher average portfolio balance, which was partially offset by less favorable financing spreads.

在投影片 12 轉向我們的金融服務業務。第一季歸屬於迪爾公司的全球金融服務淨利為 2.07 億美元。淨利潤的成長主要是由於平均投資組合餘額增加，但部分被不利的融資利差所抵銷。

For fiscal year 2024, our outlook remains at $770 million, as benefits from a higher average portfolio balance offset less favorable financing spreads. As a reminder, fiscal year 2023 net income was also impacted by a non-repeating onetime accounting correction.

對於 2024 財年，我們的前景仍為 7.7 億美元，因為較高的平均投資組合餘額所帶來的好處抵消了較不利的融資利差。需要提醒的是，2023 財年淨利也受到非重複一次性會計更正的影響。

Finally, Slide 13 outlines our guidance for net income, our effective tax rate and operating cash flow. For fiscal year 2024, our outlook for net income is now expected to be between $7.5 billion and $7.75 billion. Next, our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate between 24% and 26%. And lastly, cash flow from the equipment operations is now projected to be in the range of $7 billion to $7.5 billion.

最後，幻燈片 13 概述了我們對淨利潤、有效稅率和營運現金流的指導。對於 2024 財年，我們目前預計淨利潤在 75 億美元至 77.5 億美元之間。接下來，我們的指導方針納入了 24% 至 26% 之間的有效稅率。最後，設備營運產生的現金流目前預計在 70 億至 75 億美元之間。

This concludes our formal comments. John, before we shift to a few topics specific to the quarter, would you mind sharing your thoughts on how 2024 is progressing?

我們的正式評論到此結束。 John，在我們轉向本季度的一些具體主題之前，您介意分享一下您對 2024 年進展的看法嗎？

Thanks, Josh. I'd be happy to. We've had a great start to the year. The quarter was strong, and I truly appreciate the efforts of the entire Deere team to deliver these results.

謝謝，喬許。我很樂意。我們今年有一個好的開始。本季表現強勁，我衷心感謝整個迪爾團隊為實現這些成果所做的努力。

As I think about 2024, it's helpful to consider the smart industrial journey that we've been on, which has been grounded in unlocking incremental value for our customers through technology, and enabling Deere to deliver structurally higher financial performance.

在我展望2024 年時，考慮一下我們一直以來的智慧工業之旅是有幫助的，它的基礎是透過科技為我們的客戶釋放增量價值，並使迪爾能夠提供結構性更高的財務業績。

I'm extremely pleased with how we've executed our production systems approach, centralized and advanced our tech stack and focused on delivering value across the entire life cycle of our solutions, all while allocating capital in a more efficient and strategic manner.

我對我們執行生產系統方法、集中和推進我們的技術堆疊、專注於在解決方案的整個生命週期中提供價值的方式感到非常滿意，同時以更有效率和更具策略性的方式分配資本。

Deere's last few years of financial performance are evidence of the structural improvement that comes with executing our strategy, all while delivering better outcomes for our customers.

迪爾過去幾年的財務表現證明了執行我們的策略所帶來的結構性改進，同時為我們的客戶提供了更好的成果。

To put 2024 financials in context, let's look at how we performed since introducing smart industrial. In 2022, our equipment operations net sales were just under $48 billion, and we delivered net income of over $7.1 billion, equating to just over $23 of EPS. In 2023, net sales increased 16% to over $55 billion, and we delivered record net income of over $10 billion or $34.63 per share.

為了了解 2024 年的財務狀況，讓我們看看自引入智慧產業以來我們的表現如何。 2022 年，我們的設備營運淨銷售額略低於 480 億美元，淨利超過 71 億美元，相當於每股盈餘略高於 23 美元。 2023 年，淨銷售額成長 16%，超過 550 億美元，淨利超過 100 億美元，即每股 34.63 美元，創下歷史新高。

Our 2024 guide implies a roughly 15% reduction in net sales, putting us at very similar sales levels to 2022. However, continuing that comparison, our net income forecast of $7.5 billion to $7.75 billion contemplates at least a $400 million improvement over 2022. On an EPS basis, that's growth of over $4 per share, demonstrating the structural improvement enabled by our smart industrial strategy.

我們的2024 年指南意味著淨銷售額將減少約15%，使我們的銷售水準與2022 年非常相似。然而，繼續進行比較，我們的淨利潤預測為75 億至77.5 億美元，預計比2022 年至少增加4 億美元。以每股收益計算，每股成長超過 4 美元，這表明我們的智慧工業戰略實現了結構性改善。

Going forward, as we execute our plans under our new operating model, we will deliver better outcomes for our customers and deliver higher levels of financial performance for Deere, generating strong cash flows that will fuel continued reinvestment in the business and significant return to shareholders.

展望未來，當我們在新的營運模式下執行我們的計劃時，我們將為客戶提供更好的成果，並為迪爾帶來更高水平的財務業績，產生強勁的現金流，從而推動業務的持續再投資，並為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

Great. Thanks, John. Now let's start off with farm fundamentals this quarter. The USDA just updated 2024 forecast for net cash farm income as well as global supply and demand estimates. U.S. net cash farm income is forecasted to be down over 20% from 2023 levels, albeit up from November estimates. At the same time, global stocks for corn and soybeans are expected to fully recover from decade lows despite lower production in Brazil. Josh Beal, can you provide some additional color on what this means for both farmers and equipment demand over the rest of 2024?

偉大的。謝謝，約翰。現在讓我們從本季的農業基本面開始。美國農業部剛剛更新了 2024 年農場淨現金收入預測以及全球供需預測。美國農場現金淨收入預計將比 2023 年的水準下降 20% 以上，儘管高於 11 月的預測。同時，儘管巴西產量下降，但全球玉米和大豆庫存預計將從十年低點完全恢復。 Josh Beal，您能否提供一些額外的資訊來說明這對 2024 年剩餘時間的農民和設備需求意味著什麼？

Absolutely, Josh. I think that's a great place to start. What's most important in this conversation is context. We've certainly seen better-than-expected crop production over the past 6 months. We had record corn yields in the U.S., recovering Argentina crop production is offsetting the losses you mentioned in Brazil and 2 consecutive years of bumper wheat crops in Russia are offsetting losses in Ukraine and Australia. All of that is supporting rising carryover stocks, which are putting downward pressure on prices, culminating and lowered expectations for crop margins. All of these fundamentals are captured in the reduction in the U.S. net cash farm income forecast that you cited.

當然，喬許。我認為這是一個很好的起點。在這次談話中最重要的是上下文。過去 6 個月，我們的農作物產量確實好於預期。美國的玉米產量創歷史新高，阿根廷作物產量的恢復正在抵消你提到的巴西的損失，俄羅斯連續兩年的小麥豐收正在抵消烏克蘭和澳洲的損失。所有這些都支撐著結轉庫存的增加，這給價格帶來了下行壓力，最終降低了對作物利潤的預期。您引用的美國淨現金農場收入預測的減少反映了所有這些基本面。

But it's important to keep the expected decline in context of where we've been. We're coming off 3 years of record farm income. The projected reduction puts us in line with historical averages that are still supportive of mid-cycle equipment demand. The punchline here is that farmers continue to be profitable at these levels.

但重要的是要根據我們目前所處的情況來保持預期的下降。我們的農場收入將連續三年創紀錄。預計的減少量使我們與歷史平均值保持一致，該平均值仍然支援中期設備需求。這裡的要點是，農民在這樣的水平上繼續獲利。

In addition to farmer profitability, those other factors that are supportive. The U.S. fleet age remains above 20-year averages for both tractors and combines. Used inventory in the U.S., while having increased, remains at manageable levels. Additionally, farm balance sheets are strong, with U.S. farmland values up approximately 7% year-over-year and debt-to-equity ratio is near all-time lows.

除了農民的獲利能力之外，還有其他支持因素。美國拖拉機和聯合收割機的機齡仍高於 20 年平均值。美國的二手庫存雖然增加，但仍處於可控水準。此外，農場資產負債表強勁，美國農地價值年增約 7%，負債股本比率接近歷史低點。

Outside of the U.S., we're seeing a similar story. Farmers remain profitable in both Europe and South America, albeit down from recent record levels. There's certainly caution in the market, particularly in the high interest rate environment that we're seeing, but we still expect to see replacement demand in both regions.

在美國以外，我們也看到了類似的故事。歐洲和南美洲的農民仍然有利可圖，儘管低於最近的創紀錄水平。市場當然持謹慎態度，特別是在我們看到的高利率環境下，但我們仍然預期這兩個地區都會出現替換需求。

Thanks, Josh. It's helpful to understand where fundamentals are in relation to historical levels and encouraging to hear that despite a moderation in demand, there remains a supportive macro backdrop.

謝謝，喬許。了解基本面與歷史水準的關係是有幫助的，令人鼓舞的是，儘管需求有所放緩，但仍存在有利的宏觀背景。

Aaron, from a sentiment standpoint, what are you hearing in your conversations with customers and dealers?

亞倫，從情緒的角度來看，您在與客戶和經銷商的對話中聽到了什麼？

Thanks for the question, Josh. During my recent visits with both dealers and customers across North and South America these past few weeks, I've heard a similar sentiment from customers to what you've outlined. All are coming off record highs these past few years. And with lowering commodity prices and increasing interest rates, they're beginning to shift to a more typical replacement pattern. Dealers in the U.S. continue to see good demand for products, and are proactively managing inventories as the underlying fundamentals of the market change.

謝謝你的提問，喬許。在我最近幾週拜訪北美和南美的經銷商和客戶期間，我從客戶那裡聽到了與您所概述的類似的情緒。所有這些都從過去幾年的歷史高點回落。隨著大宗商品價格的下降和利率的上升，他們開始轉向更典型的替代模式。美國經銷商繼續看到對產品的良好需求，並隨著市場基本面的變化而積極管理庫存。

With this changing environment, customers are seeking opportunities to further improve their productivity and efficiency through the adoption of technology into their operations, technology that will enable them to reduce inputs, improve operational efficiencies and address the labor challenges they face.

在這種不斷變化的環境中，客戶正在尋求機會，透過在營運中採用技術來進一步提高生產力和效率，這些技術將使他們能夠減少投入、提高營運效率並解決他們面臨的勞動力挑戰。

That's great, Aaron. It's good to hear perspective from our customers and dealers.

太棒了，亞倫。很高興聽到我們的客戶和經銷商的觀點。

Now Josh Beal, I'd like to pull on a thread you briefly touched on earlier and ask about field inventory levels. Could you give us an update on where we stand today?

現在，喬什·比爾（Josh Beal），我想提一下您之前簡單提到的一個話題，詢問現場庫存水平。可以為我們介紹一下我們今天的最新情況嗎？

Absolutely. And it's probably best to start with new inventory. An essential element of our performance across the cycle is inventory management. We structure our production schedules to maintain the appropriate level of field inventory, for wherever we are in the cycle. Notably, that's why we continue to produce to retail demand in the North America large ag market.

絕對地。最好從新庫存開始。我們整個週期績效的一個基本要素是庫存管理。我們制定生產計劃，以保持適當的現場庫存水平，無論我們處於週期的哪個階段。值得注意的是，這就是我們繼續根據北美大型農業市場的零售需求進行生產的原因。

As we noted last quarter, we entered the year well positioned from a field inventory standpoint, and Q1 levels are consistent with normal seasonal changes, comparable with inventory to sales ratios from a year ago. With nearly 90% of orders sourced through our combined sprayer and planter early order programs, we have significant visibility into the balance of the year for those product lines. Tractors are managed on a rolling order book. And as a quick update, we're currently taking orders into the third quarter for row crop tractors, while our 4-wheel drive tractors are full through the balance of the third quarter. All in all, we expect to end the year in the U.S. and Canada positioned to produce in line with retail demand in 2025.

正如我們上季度指出的那樣，從現場庫存的角度來看，我們進入了今年，並且第一季的水平與正常的季節性變化一致，與一年前的庫存與銷售比率相當。由於近 90% 的訂單是透過我們的噴霧機和播種機組合提前訂購計劃獲得的，因此我們可以清楚地了解這些產品線的年度剩餘情況。拖拉機透過滾動訂單簿進行管理。作為快速更新，我們目前正在接受第三季中耕作物拖拉機的訂單，而我們的四輪驅動拖拉機在第三季的剩餘時間裡已滿。總而言之，我們預計美國和加拿大的產量將在年底達到 2025 年零售需求的水平。

Let's move on to new inventory outside of the U.S. and Canada. In Europe, we'll underproduce demand for the remainder of 2024 in response to softening market conditions. In Brazil, we are already seeing progress from our efforts to reduce field inventory in response to the market pullback. Notably, combine inventory is down 25% on an absolute basis for the quarter, in line with our expectations, and we are on track to reach target levels by fiscal year-end.

讓我們繼續討論美國和加拿大以外的新庫存。在歐洲，由於市場狀況疲軟，我們將在 2024 年剩餘時間內減少需求。在巴西，我們已經看到為應對市場回調而減少現場庫存的努力取得了進展。值得注意的是，本季聯合庫存絕對量下降了 25%，符合我們的預期，我們預計在財年末達到目標水準。

For both Europe and Brazil, our intent is to position 2024 year-end inventory so that we can produce in line with retail demand in 2025.

對於歐洲和巴西，我們的目的是定位 2024 年底庫存，以便我們能夠根據 2025 年的零售需求進行生產。

Aaron, I know you just got back from Brazil. Do you have anything you'd like to add?

亞倫，我知道你剛從巴西回來。您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. In fact, just a few weeks ago, I had the opportunity to visit both dealers and customers in Brazil. I was able to spend time with both sugarcane producers as well as soybean customers in the Mato Grosso.

是的。事實上，就在幾週前，我有機會拜訪了巴西的經銷商和客戶。我能夠與馬托格羅索州的甘蔗生產商和大豆客戶共度時光。

Sugarcane customers are seeing strong price for sugar today, and are making investments in equipment to drive efficiencies and productivity improvements. Our recently launched CH950 sugarcane harvester is gaining adoption, as it improves harvest efficiencies through its unique 2-row design and delivers improved fuel efficiency for producers.

甘蔗客戶目前看到糖價堅挺，並正在投資設備以提高效率和生產力。我們最近推出的 CH950 甘蔗收割機正在獲得廣泛採用，因為它透過其獨特的 2 行設計提高了收割效率，並為生產者提供了更高的燃油效率。

Our soybean customers are continuing to manage through the impacts from dry conditions in the region. Coming off historically high levels of profitability in the last few years, our soybean customers are shifting to a more normal demand of product.

我們的大豆客戶正在繼續應對該地區乾旱條件的影響。我們的大豆客戶在過去幾年中擺脫了歷史高位的盈利水平，正在轉向更正常的產品需求。

Both customers are very optimistic for the future of Brazil as planted area continues to increase and average yields continue to improve, creating even more production to support the growing demand for commodities globally.

兩位客戶都對巴西的未來非常樂觀，因為種植面積不斷增加，平均產量不斷提高，從而創造更多產量來支持全球對大宗商品不斷增長的需求。

This is Jepsen. I want to add is our continued focus in investing in Brazil for the long term. During last past quarter, we announced an investment in a Brazil technology development center to focus on product and solutions suited for tropical agriculture. This should enable us to deliver -- develop and deliver solutions for Brazil, in Brazil and bring them to the market more rapidly.

這是傑普森。我想補充的是，我們將繼續關注對巴西的長期投資。在上個季度，我們宣布投資巴西技術開發中心，專注於適合熱帶農業的產品和解決方案。這將使我們能夠在巴西為巴西開發和提供解決方案，並將其更快地推向市場。

Awesome. Thanks all for that additional color. It's great to hear about the developments and optimism in such an exciting growth market.

驚人的。感謝大家提供的額外顏色。很高興聽到這樣一個令人興奮的成長市場的發展和樂觀情緒。

Now, Josh Beal, do you want to switch over and touch on used inventory?

現在，喬許·比爾（Josh Beal），您想切換到二手庫存嗎？

Yes, definitely. Within used inventory, in North America, we've seen year-over-year increases in both combines and tractors, most notably in the high horsepower tractor segment. Again, to put these increases into context, while levels are up from recent lows, they're still in line with historical averages.

當然是。在北美的二手庫存中，我們看到聯合收割機和拖拉機的同比增長，尤其是大馬力拖拉機領域。同樣，將這些增長放在背景中，雖然水平從近期低點上升，但仍符合歷史平均水平。

Additionally, used prices have remained flat to up over the quarter. All in, we continue to feel comfortable with the used inventory levels that we're seeing.

此外，本季二手價格保持持平或上漲。總而言之，我們對所看到的二手庫存水準仍然感到滿意。

This is Jepsen again. It's also worth noting that most dealers experienced an end-of-year seasonal increase in used equipment, as they take in trades, as they deliver new machines. This increase in used equivalent typically occurs in the first half of the year, which our dealers are accustomed to handling.

這又是傑普森。還值得注意的是，大多數經銷商在接受交易和交付新機器時，二手設備在年底都出現了季節性增長。使用當量的增加通常發生在上半年，我們的經銷商習慣處理這種情況。

And in fact, I was just with some of our dealers from North America, Australia and New Zealand this past week and heard a consistent message from them. They feel comfortable with used inventory levels, especially when compared to where they were last fall. And many were able to proactively reduce inventory and are feeling good about where we're at today. All that to say, we feel comfortable where we are with current, new and used inventory levels and with the plans we have in place to manage them.

事實上，上週我剛與來自北美、澳洲和紐西蘭的一些經銷商見面，並從他們那裡聽到了一致的訊息。他們對二手庫存水準感到滿意，尤其是與去年秋天的水準相比。許多人能夠主動減少庫存，並對我們今天的處境感到滿意。總而言之，我們對當前、新的和二手的庫存水準以及我們制定的管理計劃感到滿意。

Thank you all. That's really helpful perspective on what has been a topic of interest lately. And on that note, one overarching impact from this discussion that we've yet to address is the updated outlook for the quarter.

謝謝你們。對於最近感興趣的話題，這確實是很有幫助的觀點。在這一點上，我們尚未解決的這次討論的一個總體影響是本季的最新前景。

Markets have clearly shifted this year, but we've maintained strong performance through the first quarter with 18.5% margins for our equipment operations. This clearly points to the structural improvement that we've achieved, bolstered by a 2024 forecast that would represent our second best year ever from an earnings standpoint.

今年市場明顯發生了變化，但我們在第一季保持了強勁的業績，設備業務利潤率為 18.5%。這清楚地表明我們已經實現了結構性改善，並得到了 2024 年預測的支持，從收益的角度來看，這將是我們有史以來第二好的一年。

With that in mind, Josh Beal, can you walk us through what's transpired over the last 3 months and how that relates to the rest of the year?

考慮到這一點，Josh Beal，您能否向我們介紹過去 3 個月發生的事情以及這與今年剩餘時間有何關係？

Yes. Great points, Josh, and definitely worth unpacking here. Let's start with our production and precision ag and small ag and turf businesses.

是的。很棒的觀點，喬什，絕對值得在這裡打開。讓我們從我們的生產和精密農業以及小型農業和草坪業務開始。

Beginning with the quarter, we saw strong year-over-year price realization across both segments. It's worth noting, however, that we expect price realization to moderate throughout the remainder of the year in line with our annual guide of 1.5 points for both segments.

從本季開始，我們看到兩個細分市場的價格實現年比強勁。然而，值得注意的是，我們預計今年剩餘時間的價格實現將放緩，與我們對這兩個細分市場 1.5 個點的年度指導一致。

Relative to production costs, we saw material and freight coming lower for both large and small ag, leading to favorable year-over-year comparisons for the quarter. This is aligned with our expectations to see slightly favorable production cost compares for both segments for the full year.

相對於生產成本，我們發現大型和小型農業公司的材料和運費均有所下降，導致本季的年比比較有利。這符合我們的預期，即全年兩個部門的生產成本相比略有有利。

Looking at SA&G, we had unfavorable impacts in the quarter from incentive compensation, timing of spend, which pulled costs forward into the quarter and foreign exchange. Notably, we don't expect the first quarter to be indicative of our SA&G run rate for the rest of the year, as we're pulling levers in line with the rest of our operations.

看看 SA&G，我們在本季受到激勵性薪資、支出時機的不利影響，這將成本推入本季和外匯。值得注意的是，我們預計第一季不會代表我們今年剩餘時間的 SA&G 運行率，因為我們正在根據我們的其他業務來調整槓桿。

Shifting to our outlook. We are seeing demand shifts in production of precision ag, impacting combines and large tractors, which is felt mostly in the back half of 2024. Conversely, we're seeing minimal change to our small ag and turf outlook from last quarter, as the dairy and high-value crop segments remain stable.

轉向我們的觀點。我們看到精密農業生產的需求發生變化，影響聯合收割機和大型拖拉機，這主要在2024 年下半年感受到。相反，我們看到小型農業和草坪前景與上季度相比變化甚微，因為乳製品高價值作物領域維持穩定。

It's important to reiterate here that our plans in large ag to produce to retail demand in North America and underproduced retail in Brazil and Europe, reflect our commitment to inventory and cycle management. This approach should position us well going into 2025 across all geographies.

在此重申，我們計劃在大型農業中生產以滿足北美的零售需求以及巴西和歐洲生產不足的零售需求，這反映了我們對庫存和週期管理的承諾。這種方法應該能讓我們在所有地區順利進入 2025 年。

This is Aaron. I'd like to add quickly. I believe the key opportunity here is our proactive management of production levels to adjust for the changes we are seeing in our end market demand. We have been highly effective in managing through the changing market dynamics in the U.S., and we'll continue to remain focused on disciplined execution of our pricing strategies in order to maintain performance as we move through the cycle.

這是亞倫。我想快點補充一下。我相信這裡的關鍵機會是我們對生產水準的主動管理，以適應我們在終端市場需求中看到的變化。我們在管理美國不斷變化的市場動態方面一直非常有效，我們將繼續專注於嚴格執行我們的定價策略，以便在整個週期中保持業績。

Thanks, Aaron, and Josh. That's really helping bridge between the ag industry outlook and our tier forecast.

謝謝亞倫和喬許。這確實有助於在農業產業前景和我們的層級預測之間架起橋樑。

Let's shift now to Construction and Forestry, which we haven't really touched on yet. Results for the quarter came in better than expected with margins slightly off year-over-year compares given flat sales levels.

現在讓我們轉向建築和林業，我們還沒有真正涉及這兩個領域。該季度的業績優於預期，由於銷售水準持平，利潤率較去年同期略有下降。

Josh Beal, can you walk us through how activity in the quarter has impacted our 2024 outlook?

Josh Beal，您能否向我們介紹本季的活動如何影響我們 2024 年的前景？

Absolutely. The key takeaway from the quarter is that underlying demand is stabilizing at levels higher than expected, while at the same time, the industry has become more competitive, given inventory availability.

絕對地。本季度的主要結論是，潛在需求穩定在高於預期的水平，同時，考慮到庫存供應，該行業的競爭變得更加激烈。

Looking forward, Deere inventory levels have recovered and are now in line with the industry. We expect slightly stronger sales through the back half of the year, which is embedded in our updated outlook. Demand will be driven by key end markets, where optimism remains strong. All of this is reflected in our order books, which for Construction and Forestry are full through the second quarter across most product lines, with compact construction equipment notably full through the end of the third quarter.

展望未來，迪爾庫存水準已恢復，目前與產業水準一致。我們預計今年下半年的銷售將略有成長，這已包含在我們最新的展望中。需求將受到關鍵終端市場的推動，這些市場的樂觀情緒仍然強勁。所有這些都反映在我們的訂單中，大多數產品線的建築和林業訂單在第二季度都已滿，而緊湊型建築設備在第三季末尤其滿。

This is Jepsen. I'd like to emphasize quickly the runway that remains on government infrastructure projects in the U.S. Through 2023, roughly 40% of the IIJA dollars have been awarded, but relatively minimal amounts have actually been spent thus far. Needless to say, we expect infrastructure spending to provide a strong tailwind well into '25 and '26 across both our construction and road building segments, as dollars are awarded and projects commence.

這是傑普森。我想快速強調美國政府基礎設施項目的跑道。到 2023 年，大約 40% 的 IIJA 資金已經發放，但迄今為止實際支出的金額相對較少。不用說，隨著資金的發放和項目的啟動，我們預計基礎設施支出將為我們的建築和道路建設領域的25年和26年提供強勁的推動力。

Thanks for that color, Josh. It really helps contextualize the opportunity ahead.

謝謝你的顏色，喬許。它確實有助於了解未來的機會。

Shifting gears now. Let's talk about the importance of managing across varying end markets. Josh Beal, coming back to you, can you walk us through what we're doing to manage the current environment?

現在換檔。讓我們來談談管理不同終端市場的重要性。 Josh Beal，回到您身邊，您能否向我們介紹我們正在採取哪些措施來管理當前的環境？

Yes, for sure. First and foremost, it's proactive actions to ensure we stay ahead of demand changes. All of our factories and product lines have a list of levers we pull, depending on the magnitude and direction of the volume change that we're seeing. Those efforts are ultimately grounded in our focus on inventory management, which we spoke about earlier. The underproduction in retail in certain geographies and production to retail in North America directly reflect this laser focus on inventory management as a key pillar to maintaining price discipline and structural profitability across the cycle.

是肯定的。首先也是最重要的是，積極主動的行動可確保我們領先於需求變化。我們所有的工廠和產品線都有一系列我們可以使用的槓桿，這取決於我們看到的數量變化的幅度和方向。這些努力最終是基於我們對庫存管理的關注，我們之前談到過這一點。某些地區的零售業生產不足以及北美的生產到零售直接反映出對庫存管理的高度重視，將其作為維持整個週期價格紀律和結構性盈利能力的關鍵支柱。

On the cost side, supply chain management is of utmost importance. Our team is working continuously to ensure not only that we're getting the best price on purchase components, but that we're also maintaining a robust sourcing pipeline to ensure the resiliency of our supply base.

在成本方面，供應鏈管理至關重要。我們的團隊不斷努力，不僅確保我們以最優惠的價格購買組件，而且保持強大的採購管道，以確保我們供應基地的彈性。

This year, we are seeing the impact of our strategic partnerships and supplier agreements come to fruition. Additionally, we continue to design cost reduction into our products.

今年，我們看到我們的策略合作夥伴關係和供應商協議的影響正在取得成果。此外，我們持續致力於降低產品成本。

As noted previously, we expect the impact of these savings to drive year-over-year production cost favorability for our equipment operations, despite headwinds in other spend categories.

如前所述，儘管其他支出類別存在不利因素，但我們預計這些節省的影響將推動我們的設備營運的生產成本將比去年同期下降。

One more thing to add here. All of this work ultimately impacts our decremental margins, as we make decisions to proactively manage production and inventory levels. As we've noted, we'll underproduce in some regions, which will impact decrementals, as we dial down production faster than we realized savings from pulling levers.

這裡還要補充一件事。所有這些工作最終都會影響我們的利潤下降，因為我們做出主動管理生產和庫存水準的決定。正如我們所指出的，我們將在某些地區生產不足，這將影響減量，因為我們減少產量的速度比我們透過拉動槓桿實現的節省速度要快。

Additionally, we're negatively impacted by unfavorable mix from declines in high-margin products like combines and tractors, as well as geographies such as Brazil and North America. Importantly, we continue to robustly invest in future value unlock opportunities.

此外，我們也受到聯合收割機和拖拉機等高利潤產品以及巴西和北美等地區銷售下降帶來的不利組合的負面影響。重要的是，我們繼續大力投資未來價值釋放機會。

Awesome. And that's a great segue into my last question, which is for Aaron.

驚人的。這是我向亞倫提出的最後一個問題的一個很好的延續。

Historically, we've maintained consistent R&D spend throughout the cycle, which in part, reflects our commitment to leading through innovation. The ag industry is going through a precision ag revolution, and Deere has been on this journey for nearly 25 years.

從歷史上看，我們在整個週期中一直保持一致的研發支出，這在一定程度上反映了我們對創新領先的承諾。農業產業正在經歷一場精準農業革命，迪爾已經踏上這趟旅程近 25 年。

Aaron, can you give us an update on where we're at in our Leap Ambitions and precision ag journey?

Aaron，您能給我們介紹一下我們的飛躍雄心和精準農業之旅的最新進展嗎？

Sure. Within our production and precision ag business, our Leap Ambitions are to help customers produce more with less, less inputs like herbicides and fertilizers and more productivity through more efficient use of labor. One measurement for this progress is through our engaged acre metrics, where we are planning to achieve 500 million acres engaged by 2026. As customers use our machines and technologies, we expect to see those engaged acres continue to grow. To propel this, we will continue to make significant investments in R&D, prioritized by the needs of our customers around the world and the value we can unlock.

當然。在我們的生產和精準農業業務中，我們的飛躍目標是幫助客戶以越來越少的除草劑和化肥等投入來生產更多產品，並透過更有效地利用勞動力來提高生產力。衡量這項進展的一個指標是透過我們的參與面積指標，我們計劃在 2026 年實現 5 億英畝的參與面積。隨著客戶使用我們的機器和技術，我們預計這些參與面積將繼續增長。為了推動這一目標，我們將繼續在研發方面進行大量投資，並優先考慮全球客戶的需求和我們可以釋放的價值。

Our production and precision ag strategy is predicated on 3 distinct pillars: product leadership, system leadership; and finally, go-to-market leadership. Our products are our machines. They are the foundation of our work and enable customers to do the job in the field every day. Customers rely on our machines during critical times of the year, like planting or harvesting, and need those machines to perform. In fact, we will be reinforcing this focus through one of our most significant new product launches coming in a few weeks.

我們的生產和精準農業策略是基於三個不同的支柱：產品領先、系統領先；最後，進入市場的領導力。我們的產品就是我們的機器。它們是我們工作的基礎，使客戶能夠每天在現場完成工作。客戶在一年中的關鍵時期（例如種植或收割）依賴我們的機器，並且需要這些機器來執行。事實上，我們將透過幾週後推出的最重要的新產品之一來加強這一重點。

Customers will see our commitment to provide them with the most advanced machines, new levels of productivity and ability to perform their jobs faster and with more precision. It's going to be exciting and will have an impact on most of our production and precision ag portfolio. Again, reinforcing our commitment to product leadership through industry-leading machine performance and quality.

客戶將看到我們致力於為他們提供最先進的機器、新的生產力水平以及更快、更精確地完成工作的能力。這將是令人興奮的，並將對我們的大部分生產和精密農業產品組合產生影響。透過業界領先的機器性能和品質再次強化我們對產品領先地位的承諾。

Thanks, Aaron. It's great to hear about the foundational heart iron that enables us to invest in more advanced solutions. And it sounds like there's a lot more to come on the new product front, beginning with the commodity classic event at the end of the month. So we'll wait to say any more until then.

謝謝，亞倫。很高興聽到有關基礎核心的消息，它使我們能夠投資更先進的解決方案。聽起來新產品方面還會有更多內容，從月底的商品經典活動開始。所以我們會等到那時再說。

Now the second pillar you highlighted is system leadership. Could you start by defining this for us before breaking down what we're doing on this front?

現在您強調的第二個支柱是系統領導力。在分解我們在這方面所做的事情之前，您能否先為我們定義一下這一點？

Sure. The system is the key differentiating factor for us in the market. It's the integration of our technology solutions into our machines that make it easier for customers to more precisely plant seeds and apply chemicals and nutrients. The seamless integration of capturing the data from the action in the field and sending it to the cloud, allows customers to make better decisions and develop more efficient and sustainable practices on their farms.

當然。該系統是我們在市場上的關鍵差異化因素。將我們的技術解決方案整合到我們的機器中，使客戶能夠更輕鬆地更精確地種植種子並施用化學物質和養分。從現場操作中捕獲數據並將其發送到雲端的無縫整合使客戶能夠做出更好的決策並在其農場上開發更高效和可持續的實踐。

Our technology stack is helping growers reduce costs, improve efficiencies as well as increase yields, generating more profitability for their operations. This translates to significant savings for them as well as more sustainable practices for the environment.

我們的技術堆疊正在幫助種植者降低成本、提高效率並提高產量，從而為其營運創造更多利潤。這意味著他們可以節省大量成本，並為環境提供更永續的做法。

And all of this is enhanced through the use of one key foundational technology, machine connectivity. And for years, we've been working with customers to connect machines through cellular connectivity. However, there are many areas of the world where terrestrial cellular connectivity is not available, like Brazil, for example, where nearly 70% of the current ag productive area does not have access to any connectivity.

所有這一切都透過使用一項關鍵基礎技術——機器連接——得到增強。多年來，我們一直與客戶合作，透過蜂窩連接來連接機器。然而，世界上有許多地區無法提供地面蜂窩連接，例如巴西，目前近 70% 的農業生產區無法獲得任何連接。

This is why we recently entered into an agreement with SpaceX to provide satellite connectivity for our customers. Connectivity that will enable real-time data access, which will drive cost savings and efficiency improvements in customer operations, while also providing the foundation for future advancements in automation and autonomy. This will be key to addressing the growing labor challenges facing our customers today.

這就是為什麼我們最近與 SpaceX 達成協議，為我們的客戶提供衛星連線。連接性將實現即時數據訪問，這將推動客戶營運的成本節約和效率提高，同時也為未來自動化和自主性的進步奠定基礎。這將是解決客戶當今面臨的日益嚴峻的勞動力挑戰的關鍵。

That's really well articulated, Aaron. You can clearly see how complete system integration creates value, well beyond any individual component and how connectivity is foundational to unlocking this opportunity.

亞倫，這句話說得真好。您可以清楚地看到完整的系統整合如何創造遠遠超出任何單一組件的價值，以及連接性如何成為釋放此機會的基礎。

The natural progression then from tech stack development and integration lead us to the last pillar, you noted, our go-to-market strategy. Successfully designing precision equipment and technology is a feat within itself, but deploying these solutions is another challenge all on its own. What are we doing to solve this part of the equation?

您指出，從技術堆疊開發和整合的自然進展引導我們走向最後一個支柱，即我們的市場策略。成功設計精密設備和技術本身就是一項壯舉，但部署這些解決方案本身就是另一個挑戰。我們要做什麼來解決方程式的這一部分？

Yes. The third pillar of our strategy is around our dealer channel and our go-to-market capabilities to sell and support not only the equipment, but also the suite of technologies available for customers. Our dealers understand deeply the needs of their customers and where their customers are in their own technology journey, as they work with each customer to provide them solutions to improve their operations.

是的。我們策略的第三個支柱是圍繞我們的經銷商通路和我們的上市能力，不僅銷售和支援設備，還銷售和支援客戶可用的技術套件。我們的經銷商深入了解客戶的需求以及客戶在自己的技術旅程中的位置，因為他們與每位客戶合作，為他們提供改善營運的解決方案。

Furthermore, we are providing the dealers with enhanced tools and capabilities to drive greater adoption and utilization of our technologies. We've launched our Solutions as a Service approach with customers, where we're lowering the overall upfront cost of technology and shifting to a pay-as-you-go model. Our initial experiences have been extremely favorable, as we engage a broader range of customers with our technology.

此外，我們也為經銷商提供增強的工具和功能，以推動我們的技術得到更大程度的採用和利用。我們已經向客戶推出了「解決方案即服務」方法，降低了整體技術前期成本，並轉向即用即付模式。我們最初的經驗非常有利，因為我們利用我們的技術吸引了更廣泛的客戶。

Additionally, we're gearing up our precision upgrade offerings to further drive technology utilization on many of our existing machines in the field. See & Spray premium is one of the latest products that enables customers with late model sprayers to take advantage of the savings that See & Spray provides. Early demand for this solution has been strong and beyond our initial expectations.

此外，我們正在準備精度升級產品，以進一步推動該領域許多現有機器的技術使用率。 See & Spray premium 是最新產品之一，讓擁有新噴霧器的客戶能夠享受 See & Spray 提供的節省。對該解決方案的早期需求非常強勁，超出了我們最初的預期。

And one more thing to add as it relates to go to market. We've seen tremendous response to our newly released precision ag essentials upgrade kit, which is our display, receiver and modem with a SaaS go-to-market approach, offering low upfront cost and annual subscription.

還有一件事需要補充，因為它涉及市場。我們新發布的精密農業必需品升級套件獲得了巨大反響，該套件是我們的顯示器、接收器和調製解調器，採用 SaaS 上市方式，提供較低的前期成本和年度訂閱。

Orders exceeded our expectations, and this approach allows us to reach deeper into the installed base of equipment, as a large portion of the sales were incremental, going to customers that did not previously have this level of technology on their existing machines.

訂單超出了我們的預期，這種方法使我們能夠更深入地了解設備的安裝基礎，因為很大一部分銷售是增量的，面向以前在現有機器上不具備這種技術水平的客戶。

Thanks, Aaron, and Josh. That's a great update. And before we open the line to questions, Josh Jepsen, any final comments?

謝謝亞倫和喬許。這是一個很棒的更新。在我們開始提問之前，喬什·傑普森（Josh Jepsen）有什麼最後的評論嗎？

It was a good first quarter, with strong results to get the year going. Fundamentals, overall, began normalizing across our businesses and are supportive of near mid-cycle volume levels.

第一季表現良好，業績強勁，為今年的發展奠定了基礎。整體而言，我們的業務基本面開始正常化，並支援接近週期中期的成交量水準。

We returned $1.7 billion in cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter, while also investing in record levels of R&D to bring new solutions to market.

本季我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 17 億美元現金，同時也投資創紀錄水準的研發，將新的解決方案推向市場。

It was also exciting to see the team highlight some of our solutions at the Consumer Electronics Show in January that are unlocking value for customers, not just economic value, but sustainable value as well.

同樣令人興奮的是，我們的團隊在一月份的消費電子展上重點介紹了我們的一些解決方案，這些解決方案為客戶釋放了價值，不僅是經濟價值，而且還有可持續價值。

The company has been through economic cycles in the past, and we know how to manage through various stages of end market demand. As John noted, we expect to perform better across all points of the cycle, as evidenced by our nearly 19% equip ops operating margin forecast just below mid-cycle levels, while remaining focused on managing production and inventories proactively.

公司過去曾經歷過經濟週期，我們知道如何管理終端市場需求的各個階段。正如John 指出的那樣，我們預計在周期的所有點上都會表現更好，我們近19% 的設備運營運營利潤率預測略低於週期中期水平就證明了這一點，同時繼續專注於主動管理生產和庫存。

We are, at the same time, focused on building a more resilient, less variable business while delivering more value to customers than ever before. We will continue to adapt our business model to enable customers to adopt, use and benefit from our tech stack.

同時，我們致力於打造更具彈性、更少變化的業務，同時為客戶提供比以往更多的價值。我們將繼續調整我們的業務模式，使客戶能夠採用、使用我們的技術堆疊並從中受益。

One important thing to consider, our customers do critical work to produce food, fiber, fuel, shelter and infrastructure. The trend of fewer people going to work in these areas is not slowing, and we hear this from our customers each and every day.

需要考慮的一件重要事情是，我們的客戶在生產食品、纖維、燃料、住房和基礎設施方面從事關鍵工作。在這些地區工作的人數減少的趨勢並沒有放緩，我們每天都會從客戶那裡聽到這一點。

What this means is that our solutions need to do more and no one is better positioned to meet our customers' needs than we are, given our ability to seamlessly integrate hardware, software, data, financing and service and support. Importantly, our team of Deere and dealer employees get up each day with a purpose and passion to make our customers' lives easier and enable them to do more with less.

這意味著我們的解決方案需要做得更多，而且鑑於我們無縫整合硬體、軟體、數據、融資以及服務和支援的能力，沒有人比我們更能滿足客戶的需求。重要的是，我們的迪爾團隊和經銷商員工每天起床都帶著目標和熱情，讓我們的客戶的生活更輕鬆，讓他們事半功倍。

Thanks, Josh. Now let's open it up to questions from our investors.

謝謝，喬許。現在讓我們接受投資人的提問。

Now we're ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call. The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure. (Operator Instructions)

現在我們準備開始電話的問答部分。接線員將指導您了解投票程序。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

Can we start the conversation on the revision to precision ag EBIT coming down by about $500 million on a $700 million sales reduction. Obviously, you're off to a really good start in the year. It sounds like costs are tracking pretty well. Can you just expand on when do you expect a deterioration in performance and what's driving the revision, necessarily considering how good the performance has been and the implied decremental margin on that cut?

我們可以開始討論精密農業息稅前利潤因銷售額減少 7 億美元而減少約 5 億美元嗎？顯然，今年你有一個非常好的開始。聽起來成本進展得很好。您能否詳細說明您預計業績何時會惡化以及推動修訂的原因是什麼，必須考慮到業績有多好以及削減的隱含遞減幅度？

Yes. No, thanks for the question, Jerry. I think starting out, if you think about our PPA guide, and as we've noted in the change, we were a range of down 15% to 20%. We're now down to the lower end of that range. And a couple of things, I think, to point out there, we noted softening in Europe. We've seen that market pull back some. We've seen some more caution in that market. We're now noting that we're going to underproduce retail in Europe. I think particularly noting that there's more weakness in Central and Eastern Europe, given the ongoing conflict there in the region and what that's doing for trade flows, grain flows and kind of disrupting that. So you've seen a little more weakness, a little pullback in sentiment on the Europe side.

是的。不，謝謝你的提問，傑瑞。我認為一開始，如果你考慮我們的 PPA 指南，正如我們在變更中所指出的，我們的下降幅度為 15% 到 20%。我們現在已降至該範圍的下限。我想指出一些事情，我們注意到歐洲的經濟疲軟。我們已經看到市場有所回落。我們看到該市場更加謹慎。我們現在註意到，歐洲的零售業將出現生產不足。我認為特別要指出的是，鑑於該地區持續不斷的衝突以及這對貿易流、糧食流的影響以及某種程度的干擾，中歐和東歐的弱點更加明顯。所以你看到歐洲方面的情緒更加疲軟，情緒有所回落。

And although our guides are unchanged in North America, Josh Rohleder mentioned, we're probably at the higher end of that reduction on the North America guide as we look at our order books. And as you know, we manage tractors on a rolling order book. We have seen some softening in velocity there on the tractor side, which is particularly causing us to look at back half of production and pull back a little bit there. So we're proactively taking on that production in line with sales, again, notably producing at retail levels for North America, but reacting to what we're seeing in the market.

喬許·羅勒德（Josh Rohleder）提到，儘管我們在北美的指南沒有變化，但當我們查看我們的訂單時，我們可能處於北美指南減少幅度的較高端。如您所知，我們透過滾動訂單來管理拖拉機。我們已經看到拖拉機一側的速度減弱，這尤其促使我們關注後半部分的生產，並在那裡稍微回落。因此，我們再次根據銷售情況主動進行生產，特別是在北美的零售層面進行生產，但會根據我們在市場上看到的情況做出反應。

As that relates to decrementals, I think Josh Jepsen noted this earlier, but certainly, in underproduction in regions like Europe, like Brazil, has an impact on decrementals. I think the other thing to note, Jerry, is that there are mix elements as we're pulling back in certain levels of production, they're high-margin products that are coming out. I mean large tractors, combines in North America, certainly regions like Brazil and in North America as well, that's bad mix as you pull out that. It's higher decremental that you're seeing in those particular regions. We are pulling levers to address that, but the savings that you see from the levers doesn't necessarily come through right away. So there's a little bit of a timing piece as well.

由於這與減量有關，我認為喬什·傑普森（Josh Jepsen）早些時候注意到了這一點，但可以肯定的是，在歐洲（如巴西）等地區的生產不足，會對減量產生影響。傑瑞，我認為另一件值得注意的事情是，當我們縮減某些生產水平時，存在混合因素，它們是即將推出的高利潤產品。我的意思是大型拖拉機，北美的聯合收割機，當然還有巴西等地區和北美，當你拉出來時，這是一個糟糕的組合。您在這些特定區域中看到的遞減幅度更大。我們正在採取措施來解決這個問題，但您從這些措施中看到的節省不一定會立即實現。所以還有一點計時的部分。

Yes, Jerry, this is Josh Jepsen. The one thing I would add is we are continuing to -- our order fulfillment model gives us good visibility. I think we have a good pulse on what's going on. And as a result, we're always going to make those adjustments more quickly than waiting, that allows our factories to get aligned allows us to start driving those changes from a material demand perspective come through.

是的，傑瑞，我是喬許傑普森。我要補充的一件事是，我們正在繼續——我們的訂單履行模型為我們提供了良好的可見性。我認為我們對正在發生的事情有很好的把握。因此，我們總是會比等待更快地做出這些調整，這使我們的工廠能夠協調一致，使我們能夠開始從材料需求的角度推動這些變化。

So again, this is all really rooted in as we see some of that order velocity change, see some of the fundamentals change from a customer perspective, getting ahead of that to the extent possible and position ourselves again to build in line with retail as quickly as we can. We're doing that in North America this year. Some of the changes that Josh mentioned will impact what we're doing in North America tractors and combines. But again, a proactive approach and trying to be really mindful of knowing the sooner we see these things, the more quickly we're able to make changes in our factories.

因此，這一切都真正植根於我們看到訂單速度的一些變化，從客戶的角度看到一些基本面的變化，盡可能領先，並再次定位自己以盡快與零售保持一致盡我們所能。今年我們將在北美這樣做。喬希提到的一些變化將影響我們在北美拖拉機和聯合收割機所做的事情。但同樣，積極主動的方法並努力真正注意我們越早看到這些事情，我們就能越快在工廠中做出改變。

Our next question will come from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題將由克里斯汀歐文和奧本海默提出。

Someone have a follow-up to the first here is just helping us contextualize the headwind that you're assuming from that underproduction in Europe and Brazil, how much of the guide difference is related to that underproduction versus some of the incremental North America mix and effects that you've outlined?

有人對第一個問題有後續行動，只是幫助我們了解您所假設的歐洲和巴西生產不足所帶來的逆風，指導差異有多少與生產不足與北美的一些增量混合有關，以及您所概述的效果？

Kristen, it's Josh Jepsen. Good question. If you look at the change, I'd say, from the underproduction -- underproducing in Brazil, which we planned on and we're executing on in the first quarter and then Europe, that's probably about 1 point drag of operating margin for production precision ag. So that's a decent piece of that. And then as we noted, we've seen just a little more shift in demand in North America, but about 1 point on that underproduction.

克莉絲汀，我是喬許傑普森。好問題。如果你看看巴西生產不足帶來的變化，我們計劃在第一季執行，然後是歐洲，這可能會導致生產營運利潤率下降約 1 個百分點精密股份公司所以這是一個不錯的部分。然後，正如我們所指出的，我們看到北美的需求發生了一點變化，但產量不足增加了約 1 個百分點。

I think important to note here, when we talk about underproduction in Brazil and some of the challenges that we faced last year coming into this year, in spite of that, we're seeing in our South American business, still really strong performance. And I think evidence of structural profitability improvement across the company, but even underproducing there somewhat significantly, we're doing mid-teens margins in the region. So we feel good about what we're doing there, the shifts and changes we've made to our business. And again, that's mid-teens margins while underproducing and making sure we're getting inventory in the right spot.

我認為在這裡值得注意的是，當我們談論巴西的生產不足以及我們去年和今年面臨的一些挑戰時，儘管如此，我們在南美業務中看到的表現仍然非常強勁。我認為有證據表明整個公司的結構性盈利能力有所改善，但即使該地區的產量明顯不足，我們在該地區的利潤率也只有十幾歲左右。因此，我們對我們在那裡所做的事情以及我們對業務所做的轉變和改變感到滿意。再說一遍，這是十幾歲左右的利潤，同時產量不足並確保我們在正確的位置獲得庫存。

Next, we will hear from Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

接下來，我們將聽取查德·迪拉德和伯恩斯坦的演講。

So you guys have done a lot, structurally over the last like couple of years to reduce your cost. I was hoping maybe you could update us with how much you're seeing?

因此，在過去幾年裡，你們在結構上做了很多工作來降低成本。我希望你能告訴我們你所看到的最新情況嗎？

And then secondly, I think you talked a little bit about seeing some levers that you could pull to further reduce cost. Could you give a little bit more color on that, please?

其次，我認為您談到了一些可以進一步降低成本的槓桿。請你給它多一點顏色好嗎？

Yes. I mean -- thanks for the question, Chad. I think we're encouraged by what we're seeing on production costs. I think that's evidenced in performance in Q1. You saw that favorability in both small ag and turf and in large ag in that performance. Yes. So we're feeling good about what we're seeing. We talked about it in some of our comments, but it's negotiating and partnering, frankly, with our suppliers on component costs, we still had opportunity to bring some of that down. We continue to design cost reduction into our products as well. And then we're pulling levers in other parts of the business as well, whether that'd be SA&G and other areas where we do have opportunity to adjust as we see demand shift. And so we're making those -- we're pulling those levers and think we have opportunity in front of us.

是的。我的意思是——謝謝你的提問，查德。我認為我們對生產成本的觀察感到鼓舞。我認為第一季的表現證明了這一點。您在小型農業和草坪以及大型農業的表現中都看到了這種好感。是的。所以我們對所看到的感覺很好。我們在一些評論中談到了這一點，但坦白說，我們正在與供應商就零件成本進行談判和合作，我們仍然有機會降低其中一些成本。我們也繼續在產品中降低成本。然後，我們也在業務的其他部分拉動槓桿，無論是 SA&G 還是其他我們確實有機會根據需求變化進行調整的領域。所以我們正在做這些——我們正在拉動這些槓桿，並認為我們面前有機會。

Yes. Chad, one thing I'd add. On the overhead side, we do see some headwind on overheads and that a couple of items. Some is just the impact of adjusting production volumes and the time it takes us to see those things come through. The other is we have a contractual step-up from our labor contract, and that's impacting us here in '24 as well.

是的。查德，我要補充一件事。在管理費用方面，我們確實看到管理費用和一些專案存在一些阻力。有些只是調整產量的影響以及我們看到這些事情實現所需的時間。另一個是我們的勞動合約的合約升級，這也會影響到我們 24 年的情況。

Yes, Chad, this is John May. Maybe one more thing to add. Certainly, we're not going to forget about managing the fundamentals of the business, and we'll remain absolutely focused on that. And if you think about the things we can control, it's all about disciplined execution within the factories. It's all about focus on quality. That drives cost if you slip at all on that and then cost management.

是的，查德，這是約翰·梅。也許還需要補充一件事。當然，我們不會忘記管理業務的基本面，我們將繼續絕對專注於此。如果你考慮一下我們可以控制的事情，那就是工廠內嚴格的執行。這一切都與注重品質有關。如果你在這方面有任何失誤，那麼就會增加成本，然後進行成本管理。

And then to your point of tackling costs, if you go back to 2020, if you remember, when we first started the Smart Industrial strategy, we did a significant restructuring that positioned the company where it is today to perform at higher levels, regardless of where we are in the cycle. But thank you for that question.

然後說到解決成本問題，如果你回到2020 年，如果你還記得，當我們第一次啟動智慧工業策略時，我們進行了一次重大重組，使公司處於今天的位置，以實現更高的水平，無論我們處於循環中的哪個位置。但謝謝你提出這個問題。

Our next question comes from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安吉爾·卡斯蒂略。

I was just wondering if you could give a little bit more color on the net operating cash flow. It looked like the move there was maybe a little bit bigger cut than the implied by the net income. So just curious on the pieces there. And you talked about your own inventories and just any incremental color around working capital and any other kind of levers that are impacting cash flow.

我只是想知道您是否可以對淨營業現金流量進行更多描述。看來這項舉措的削減幅度可能比淨利所暗示的要大一些。所以只是對那裡的作品感到好奇。您談到了您自己的庫存以及圍繞營運資金的任何增量色彩以及影響現金流的任何其他類型的槓桿。

Yes, thanks for the question, Angel. Yes. A couple of things to note there. As you know, we did bring down the cash flow forecast a bit. And a big piece of that is described or is part of our net income reduction. There's a couple of other levers at play or things that play there. I think first, at working capital assumptions, we expect there's a little bit, maybe kind of another half or so of explaining the difference is from changes in working capital, we still expect inventory to be favorable to cash in 2024, but a little bit less so, and that's reflected in the adjustment.

是的，謝謝你的提問，天使。是的。有幾點要注意。如您所知，我們確實稍微下調了現金流預測。其中很大一部分被描述為或是我們淨收入減少的一部分。還有一些其他的槓桿或東西在那裡發揮作用。我認為首先，在營運資本假設方面，我們預計有一點，也許是另一半左右的解釋差異來自營運資本的變化，我們仍然預計 2024 年庫存將有利於現金，但有一點情況不太如此，這反映在調整中。

The other piece is we're seeing some higher level of balance in our portfolio at John Deere Financial. That impacts how much cash we bring back from the financial operation to equipment operations. So that really explains the balance of the change. Thanks for the question.

另一件事是我們在約翰迪爾金融公司的投資組合中看到了更高水準的平衡。這會影響我們從財務營運中帶回設備營運的現金量。這確實解釋了變化的平衡。謝謝你的提問。

Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I was curious, the thought about replacement demand and the market fundamentals are supportive of purchasing at replacement demand. Can you help us how you're thinking about where retail sales will be this year versus replacement demand? Like you're saying basically one for one. And obviously, when you model out, you obviously think about replacement demand in coming years. What is the base case right now for replacement demand, say, next year versus this year? I know it's just a framework analysis, but if you can help us with, again, retail this year versus replacement and how to think about underlying replacement beyond this year?

我很好奇，關於替代需求的想法和市場基本面都支持按替代需求購買。您能告訴我們您如何看待今年的零售額與替換需求的關係嗎？就像你說的，基本上是一對一的。顯然，當你進行建模時，你顯然會考慮未來幾年的更換需求。例如，明年與今年的替換需求目前的基本狀況是什麼？我知道這只是一個框架分析，但您是否可以再次幫助我們了解今年的零售與更換以及如何考慮今年之後的潛在更換？

David, this is Josh Jepsen, I'll start. I would say in '24, I think we're relatively aligned kind of on replacement to retail. And again, the dynamics -- the fleet fundamentals would say, hey, we're still relatively aged. We're above our long-term averages on high horsepower combines, slightly above kind of the long-term average. So the fleet age, while coming through a few years of strong demand really has not gotten tremendously younger from where we've been in the past. So I think that continues to be supportive.

大衛，我是喬許傑普森，我開始。我想說，在 24 年，我認為我們在零售替代品方面相對一致。再說一遍，動態 - 機隊基本面會說，嘿，我們仍然相對老化。我們在高馬力聯合收割機方面高於長期平均水平，略高於長期平均水平。因此，儘管經歷了幾年的強勁需求，機隊年齡實際上並沒有比過去更年輕。所以我認為這仍然是支持性的。

The one other thing I would note is the incremental tool we have -- this go around than we maybe did it a decade ago is our ability to drive technology and technology that can directly impact our customers' bottom line. So taking cost out, improving their profitability, improving their margins. And I think that is particularly helpful for us.

我要指出的另一件事是我們擁有的增量工具——這比十年前我們可能做的更好的是我們推動技術和技術的能力，這些技術可以直接影響我們客戶的底線。因此，要降低成本，提高獲利能力，提高利潤率。我認為這對我們特別有幫助。

As we think about precision upgrades, the ability to go back across the installed base, machines, we mentioned a few things. We've got a limited launch on See & Spray retrofit, which called See & Spray Premium or the precision ag essentials, which I noted, we're seeing strong uptick. It's allowing customers to get into these machines. We're going deeper in the installed base and driving incremental business. So I think the combination of the desire to take cost out of their operations and improve overall productivity and profitability will remain, and we think that's particularly important.

當我們考慮精確升級、回溯已安裝基礎、機器的能力時，我們提到了一些事情。我們有限地推出了 See & Spray 改造產品，稱為 See & Spray Premium 或精密農業必需品，我注意到，我們看到了強勁的成長。它允許客戶進入這些機器。我們正在深入安裝基礎並推動增量業務。因此，我認為降低營運成本和提高整體生產力和獲利能力的願望將繼續存在，我們認為這一點尤其重要。

Our next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

You gave us some color on the visibility of the order book. But on the lower large ag sales outlook, I guess to what extent was that guidance reduction driven more by what you're actually seeing at the level of the order books today on that visibility versus really kind of the momentum and the sentiment indicators and the grain prices are suggesting? Just kind of curious how you frame the confidence you have in the second half outlook. Do you think you've gotten enough ahead of where that momentum is trending at the moment?

您為我們提供了有關訂單簿可見性的一些資訊。但就大型農業銷售前景較低而言，我猜想指導意見的減少在多大程度上是由您今天在訂單簿水平上實際看到的可見性與真正的勢頭、情緒指標和糧食價格上漲有何暗示？只是有點好奇你如何看待下半年的前景。你認為你已經夠領先目前的趨勢了嗎？

Yes. I mean -- thanks for the question, Steve. Our best indicator of demand is our order book, and I think that was, by and large, the biggest driver here as we made these adjustments.

是的。我的意思是——謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。我們最好的需求指標是我們的訂單簿，我認為總的來說，這是我們做出這些調整時最大的推動因素。

As we noted large tractors, as we looked at velocity of orders, and we mentioned we're out into the third quarter on orders, but we do see some velocity moderating there. And given that, I think that was a big driver of the change for the segment this quarter was reflecting what we're seeing in our order books. Again, we talked some of the other changes beyond that. Similarly, I think some softening in the European side and some desire to take down inventories there is the other piece.

正如我們注意到大型拖拉機，當我們觀察訂單速度時，我們提到我們的訂單已進入第三季度，但我們確實看到那裡的速度有所放緩。有鑑於此，我認為這是本季該細分市場變化的一個重要驅動因素，反映了我們在訂單簿中看到的情況。我們再次討論了除此之外的一些其他變化。同樣，我認為歐洲方面的一些軟化和一些減少庫存的願望是另一回事。

Steve, the one thing I'd add is the other thing we watch closely is what's going on with used? What's happening with used inventories? What's happening with used prices? And what we've seen is we've seen some uptick in used combine, for example, and used high horsepower, but still relative to historical -- in decent shape. And pricing has held in pretty well. I think we've seen combines from a quarter ago have been up slightly. High horsepower tractors have been flat.

史蒂夫，我要補充的一件事是我們密切關注的另一件事是二手貨的情況如何？使用過的庫存發生了什麼事？二手價格發生了什麼變化？例如，我們所看到的是，我們看到二手聯合收割機的數量有所增加，並且使用了高馬力，但仍然相對於歷史而言 - 狀況良好。而且定價一直保持得很好。我認為我們已經看到一個季度前的聯合收割機略有上升。大馬力拖拉機已持平。

However, watching that trend and being mindful and lessons learned from the past to tell us, hey, we want to make sure we're exercising good caution there, knowing where our order books are, but also what are the some of the leading indicators, and that's been a bit of a guide for us as well as we think about our revision here.

然而，觀察這一趨勢並留心過去的經驗教訓告訴我們，嘿，我們希望確保我們在這方面保持謹慎，了解我們的訂單簿在哪裡，但也知道一些領先指標是什麼，這對我們來說是一個指導，我們也在這裡思考我們的修訂。

Our next question will come from Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的塔米扎卡里亞。

I was curious about the partnership with SpaceX. Could you give some color on how exactly this gets integrated into your product? Is this more about a tech enhancement that will come as a default in new machines? Or is there more to come?

我對與 SpaceX 的合作感到好奇。您能否詳細說明一下它是如何整合到您的產品中的？這更多的是關於新機器中預設的技術增強嗎？或是還會有更多的事情發生嗎？

And more importantly, how do you think this partnership can be monetized over the long term, be it in terms of share gains or price mix gains or maybe subscriptions? So any color there would be helpful.

更重要的是，您認為從長遠來看，這種合作夥伴關係如何貨幣化，無論是在股票收益、價格組合收益還是訂閱方面？所以任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Tami. And I'll tell you, we're really excited about this. Aaron mentioned this in some of the opening comments, but connectivity is the foundation of precision ag. And candidly, there are parts -- there are regions around the world where there's gaps in the connectivity. We talked about 70% gap in Brazil, even 30% gap in the U.S. as it relates to the total ag farmland.

是的。謝謝你的提問，塔米。我會告訴你，我們對此感到非常興奮。亞倫在一些開場評論中提到了這一點，但連結性是精準農業的基礎。坦白說，世界上有些地區的連結性存在著差距。我們談到了巴西 70% 的缺口，甚至美國也有 30% 的缺口，因為這與總農業耕地有關。

And so as we've introduced this, it provides a solution for that gap and really is a foundational piece to introduce new technologies. And what I would tell you is that the level of interest we've seen from growers really exceeded our expectations as we came out with the announcement. And what it really presents, it's an opportunity to make precision ag work in their operations.

因此，正如我們所介紹的那樣，它為這一差距提供了解決方案，並且確實是引入新技術的基礎部分。我要告訴你的是，當我們宣布這一消息時，我們看到種植者的興趣程度確實超出了我們的預期。它真正呈現的是，這是一個讓精密農業在其運作中發揮作用的機會。

In the very near term, it provides benefit today in terms of things like access to data, remote data access, infield data sharing, which enables customers to run their operations better. And this also serves as the foundation for future technology. So as you think about autonomy in the future and the opportunity that, that presents, a foundational piece of this is getting the connectivity on our machines.

在短期內，它在資料存取、遠端資料存取、內場資料共享等方面提供了好處，使客戶能夠更好地運作他們的營運。這也成為未來科技的基礎。因此，當您考慮未來的自主性以及由此帶來的機會時，其中的一個基礎部分就是在我們的機器上實現連結。

Aaron, is there anything else you'd add there?

亞倫，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. First of all, it's super exciting to be able to announce the relationship with SpaceX and the value that this really unlocks for our customers, particularly in the areas where we don't have connectivity available to them.

是的。首先，能夠宣布與 SpaceX 的合作關係以及這真正為我們的客戶帶來的價值，特別是在我們無法為他們提供連結的地區，我感到非常興奮。

Just having been in Brazil a few weeks ago and talking to customers there, they're very excited about the opportunities this presents for their operations, being able to now connect their machines and to be able to do the things that Josh just referenced.

幾週前剛到巴西並與那裡的客戶交談，他們對這為他們的營運帶來的機會感到非常興奮，現在能夠連接他們的機器並能夠做喬什剛才提到的事情。

In the short term, we'll be planning a retrofit solution as we bring this to market towards the latter part of '24 and make this more fully available in 2025 and beyond. But the intent would be is to bring that into factory installed options available for customers.

短期內，我們將規劃一個改造解決方案，並在 2024 年下半年將其推向市場，並在 2025 年及以後更全面地提供該解決方案。但目的是將其納入可供客戶使用的工廠安裝選項中。

At the end of the day, we want to provide the tools for our customers to be able to take advantage of the full tech stack and be able to improve the operation and the efficiencies of their farms, and this is a key enabler for them to do that. So we're excited about the future that this brings.

歸根結底，我們希望為客戶提供工具，使其能夠利用完整的技術堆疊，並能夠改善農場的運作和效率，這是他們實現目標的關鍵推動因素。因此，我們對這帶來的未來感到興奮。

Tami, it's Josh Jepsen. To one part of your question there around how does this -- as we create value, how do you monetize? I think there's a couple of things. One, we would expect these to come through a solution as a service model. And on top of that, enabling -- as you enable automation and enable autonomy, that comes with the combination of hardware and the potential for more of a SaaS solution as these things are getting better over time, and there's ability to continue to improve on those products.

塔米，我是喬許傑普森。對於你的問題的一部分，當我們創造價值時，你如何貨幣化？我認為有幾件事。第一，我們希望這些能夠透過解決方案即服務模型來實現。最重要的是，當您實現自動化和自主性時，硬體的組合和更多SaaS 解決方案的潛力就會隨之而來，因為隨著時間的推移，這些事情會變得越來越好，並且有能力繼續改進那些產品。

So this is foundational, particularly for Brazil, but we think it's going to drive a key component of how we think about solution as a service going forward.

因此，這是基礎性的，特別是對於巴西來說，但我們認為它將推動我們如何思考解決方案即服務的關鍵組成部分。

Yes, Tami, you can tell we're excited. This is John May. I just want to jump in as well. The trend is definitely customers are wanting higher levels of technology, and they want us to rapidly accelerate that in markets where they don't have the infrastructure to support it.

是的，塔米，你可以看出我們很興奮。這是約翰·梅。我也想跳進去。趨勢肯定是客戶需要更高水準的技術，他們希望我們在他們沒有基礎設施支援的市場中迅速加快這一速度。

Telematics, obviously, and the satellite solution gives us the ability to transfer data onboard and offboard to the machine, but we also have several, several products that rely on that telematics connection, whether we're sharing maps between machines, planters in a given field.

顯然，遠端資訊處理和衛星解決方案使我們能夠將車上和車外的資料傳輸到機器，但我們也有幾個依賴遠端資訊處理連接的產品，無論我們是在給定的機器、播種機之間共享地圖場地。

So we're going to monetize it through additional technologies that we offer today. In markets like North America, we'll be able to quickly adapt those products and solutions, now that we have this connectivity in markets like Brazil, and we're really excited about it. Thanks for your question.

因此，我們將透過我們今天提供的其他技術將其貨幣化。在北美等市場，我們將能夠快速適應這些產品和解決方案，既然我們在巴西等市場擁有這種連接，我們對此感到非常興奮。謝謝你的提問。

Our next question will come from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Just wanted to ask about particularly within production and precision ag, any help that you guys can give on quarterly cadence from here of both revenue and margins? Like is that underproduction more focused in the second half? Are you guys really going after that in the second quarter? That would be really helpful.

只是想問一下，特別是在生產和精密農業領域，你們可以對季度節奏的收入和利潤提供任何幫助嗎？下半年生產不足是否更集中？你們真的會在第二季追尋這個目標嗎？這真的很有幫助。

Yes. Great. Thanks, Nicole. I mean, I think as you look at overall equipment operations, we'd expect Q2 to be down relatively more than the down for the rest of the year, although pretty, pretty close. PPA, though, it's a little bit of a different story. That's a little bit more back half loaded. Q3, Q4, I think where you'll see more of the reduction coming out of the PPA segment.

是的。偉大的。謝謝，妮可。我的意思是，我認為，當你審視整體設備運作時，我們預計第二季的下降幅度將比今年剩餘時間的下降幅度更大，儘管非常非常接近。不過，PPA 的情況就有點不同了。也就是後半載多了一點。第三季、第四季度，我認為您會看到更多來自購電協議部分的減少。

Yes, Nicole, I think from a seasonality perspective, I think '24 looks a lot like '23, a more normal distribution in terms of quarterly splits. So expecting the strongest top line margin in 2Q would remain. So not a significant change from a seasonal split perspective in terms of how the business looks.

是的，妮可，我認為從季節性角度來看，我認為“24”看起來很像“23”，就季度劃分而言，這是一個更正態的分佈。因此，預計第二季將維持最強勁的營收利潤率。因此，從季節性分割的角度來看，業務的外觀並沒有重大變化。

Our next question comes from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

I wanted to go back to the ideas around the sort of decremental margins here because Josh Jepsen, I think you said that you were sort of looking to prioritize reduced volatility, but obviously, these decrementals early in the downturn look pretty big, I think, relative to what we were expecting.

我想回到關於利潤率遞減的想法，因為喬什·傑普森（Josh Jepsen），我想你說過你想優先考慮減少波動性，但顯然，我認為，在經濟低迷初期，這些遞減看起來相當大，相對於我們的預期。

So can you just talk about, update us on what normal decrementals should be as we think through a longer sort of downturn? And any implication for how we should think about 2025, I guess, is what I'm trying to think about? And then what an incremental might look like as well if there's just kind of any update there?

那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下，當我們思考更長時期的低迷時期時，正常的減量應該是多少？我想，這對我們該如何思考 2025 年有何影響？那麼如果有任何更新的話增量會是什麼樣子呢？

Steve, it's Josh Jepsen. I would say, we're running right now. If you look at the total equipment operations, our forecast is probably in the range of 37%, 38% overall kind of across the businesses. And then obviously, there's a range there from 30 to just in the low 40s on the production precision ag side. That's -- that production precision ag piece is clearly impacted by the underproduction there. I mean, historically, that's probably on the decremental side, run higher, closer to 45 I think we're seeing a shift in structurally how we perform and driving that down. And I think [x] underproduction would be 40 or maybe a touch better.

史蒂夫，我是喬許傑普森。我會說，我們現在就在跑步。如果您查看總設備營運情況，我們的預測可能會在整個企業的 37% 至 38% 範圍內。顯然，生產精度農業方面的範圍從 30 到 40 左右。那就是——生產精密農業件顯然受到那裡生產不足的影響。我的意思是，從歷史上看，這可能是遞減的，跑得更高，接近 45，我認為我們正在看到我們的表現在結構上發生了變化，並將其降低。我認為 [x] 生產不足會是 40 或可能稍微好一些。

But I think our focus area is, yes, we can manage this across these businesses in this range of -- from an equip ops perspective in between 35 and 40. And as we continue to execute, drive that down lower.

但我認為我們的重點領域是，是的，我們可以在 35 到 40 之間的裝備營運角度跨這些業務進行管理。隨著我們繼續執行，將其降低。

Now part of that, to your question, one of the points you made is the ability to drive less variability in their business, certainly continuing to execute on our life cycle solutions strategy helps there. The Solutions as a Service as we just talked about with SATCOM as an example and some of the things we're doing on the precision upgrade side. Also, we think we can continue to build a base of revenue and profitability that is much less reliant on just end market demand in terms of new units and volume each and every year. So we're focused there. We're going to continue to execute, but we feel good about the opportunity we have there.

現在，對於您的問題，您提出的觀點之一是能夠減少其業務的可變性，當然繼續執行我們的生命週期解決方案策略會對此有所幫助。我們剛才以衛星通訊為例討論了解決方案即服務，以及我們在精度升級方面正在做的一些事情。此外，我們認為我們可以繼續建立收入和盈利能力的基礎，在每年的新單位和銷售方面，減少對終端市場需求的依賴。所以我們專注於那裡。我們將繼續執行，但我們對那裡的機會感到很好。

Probably have time for one more question.

可能還有時間再問一個問題。

And that last question will come from Tim Thein with Citigroup.

最後一個問題將由花旗集團的提姆·泰恩提出。

All right. Yes, I suspect we'll hear some early feedback on the crop care EOP on next quarter's call. And obviously, the commodity price backdrop heading into planting season in North America, it looks like it will be less supportive than last year. And I think there was also some uniqueness in terms of the tightness in new and used sprayers a year ago.

好的。是的，我懷疑我們會在下個季度的電話會議上聽到有關作物護理 EOP 的一些早期反饋。顯然，在北美種植季節即將到來的大宗商品價格背景下，其支撐力似乎將不如去年。我認為一年前新的和二手的噴霧器的密封性也有一些獨特之處。

So -- and maybe this is best for Aaron. I'm just curious, if you can share any thoughts as to how you expect this will play out and back to the earlier point around early indicators for next year, what -- will that -- do you expect that to be as useful as a signal for large ag demand in '25? And then I guess, importantly, how you expect you'll approach pricing on that?

所以——也許這對亞倫來說是最好的。我只是很好奇，如果您能就您期望這將如何發揮作用分享任何想法，並回到圍繞明年早期指標的早期點，您希望它像什麼一樣有用？ 25 年大量農業需求的信號？然後我想，重要的是，您希望如何定價？

Yes, this is Josh Jepsen, maybe I'll start. I would say as we look at, going forward, we're early, we'll roll out those early order programs in the June time frame, beginning on planters and then sprayers to follow in that range.

是的，我是喬許傑普森，也許我會開始。我想說的是，展望未來，我們還很早，我們將在六月的時間範圍內推出這些早期訂單計劃，從播種機開始，然後是該範圍內的噴霧機。

You're right, last year, we saw a little bit of a bifurcation between those. Those generally have looked similar. We saw planters incrementally a little bit weaker than sprayers and sprayers have been constrained. So there has been some difference in what we've seen there.

你是對的，去年，我們看到了這些之間的一些分歧。這些通常看起來很相似。我們看到播種機逐漸弱於噴霧機，噴霧機受到限制。所以我們在那裡看到的情況有些不同。

I think importantly, to your question of do we think it's going to be a good indicator? I would say, yes, I think that's always a good opportunity for us to get a pulse on how our folks thinking after they've got a crop in the ground. What are they looking at in terms of upgrading their planters and sprayers and also level of technology and the ability for us to also go back and make trade-ins for folks that do want to upgrade their technology and take those trade-ins and upgrade them for the second or third customer, I think, will be important as well. And our dealers are investing in that activity. They're investing in the capabilities to do that, I think, which is really important.

我認為重要的是，對於你的問題，我們認為這會是一個很好的指標嗎？我想說，是的，我認為這對我們來說始終是一個很好的機會，可以了解我們的人們在收穫作物後的想法。他們在升級他們的花盆和噴霧器方面考慮了什麼，以及技術水平以及我們是否有能力回去為那些確實想要升級他們的技術的人進行以舊換新，並接受這些以舊換新併升級它們我認為對於第二個或第三個客戶也很重要。我們的經銷商正在投資這項活動。我認為，他們正在投資實現這一目標的能力，這非常重要。

Go ahead, Aaron.

繼續吧，亞倫。

Yes. I don't know that I can add much more to what Josh said. Other than, I think, given some of the new technologies we're bringing out across both planters and sprayers, we expect customers to want to take advantage of that for their operations. But we'll closely watch the EOP activity as it transpires through the period and adjust accordingly once we see how things roll out.

是的。我不知道我還能對喬希所說的內容補充更多。除此之外，我認為，考慮到我們在播種機和噴霧機上推出的一些新技術，我們預計客戶希望在其營運中利用這些技術。但我們將密切關注在此期間發生的 EOP 活動，並在看到事情進展後進行相應調整。

Thanks for the question, Tim. And that's all the time we have for today. We really appreciate everybody calling in, and thanks for joining us. Have a great day.

謝謝你的提問，提姆。這就是我們今天的全部時間。我們非常感謝大家的來電，並感謝您加入我們。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連線。