強鹿 (DE) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Deere & Company's Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Brent Norwood, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加迪爾公司第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監 Brent Norwood 先生。謝謝你，先生。你可以開始了。

Hello. Also on the call today are Josh Jepsen, Chief Financial Officer; and Josh Rohleder, Manager of Investor Communications.

你好。今天參加電話會議的還有首席財務官 Josh Jepsen；喬希·羅勒 (Josh Rohleder)，投資者溝通經理。

Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's third quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal year 2023. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.

今天，我們將仔細研究迪爾第三季度的收益，然後花一些時間討論我們的市場和我們當前對 2023 財年的展望。之後，我們將回答您的問題。請注意，我們提供了幻燈片來補充今天早上的電話會議。您可以在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 上訪問它們。

First, a reminder. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

首先，提醒一下。此次通話正在互聯網上進行現場直播，並進行錄音，以供迪爾公司將來傳輸和使用。未經迪爾明確書面同意，嚴禁對本受版權保護的廣播的任何部分進行任何其他使用、錄製或傳輸。電話會議（包括問答環節）的參與者同意，他們在所有媒體上的肖像和言論可以被存儲並用作財報電話會議的一部分。

This call includes forward-looking statements concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to uncertainties, risks, changes and circumstances and other factors that are difficult to predict. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K, Risk Factors in the annual Form 10-K as updated by reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

本次電話會議包括有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述會受到不確定性、風險、變化和情況以及其他難以預測的因素的影響。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的更多信息包含在公司最新的 8-K 表格中，年度 10-K 表格中的風險因素（根據向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告進行更新）。

This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings & Events.

此電話會議還可能包括不符合美國公認會計準則 (GAAP) 的財務措施。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比 GAAP 措施的調節，已包含在新聞稿中，並發佈在我們網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的“季度收益和活動”下。

I will now turn the call over to Josh Rohleder.

我現在將把電話轉給喬什·羅勒德。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining. John Deere finished the third quarter with another strong performance, resulting in 22.6% margin for equipment operations. Performance exceeded expectations as a result of sustained demand for both farm and construction equipment as well as sound operational execution across all business units.

早上好，感謝大家的加入。約翰迪爾第三季度表現再次強勁，設備運營利潤率為 22.6%。由於對農業和建築設備的持續需求以及所有業務部門良好的運營執行，業績超出了預期。

Ag fundamentals continue to remain healthy with a full order book and positive customer sentiment supporting a strong finish to fiscal year 2023. Meanwhile, construction and forestry remains sold out for the remainder of the fiscal year with robust shipments driven by strong retail demand and rental re-fleeting.

農業基本面繼續保持健康，訂單充足，客戶情緒積極，支持2023 財年的強勁結束。與此同時，建築和林業在本財年剩餘時間內仍然售罄，強勁的零售需求和租賃需求推動了強勁的出貨量。 -轉瞬即逝。

Slide 3 begins with results for the third quarter. Net sales and revenues were up 12% to $15.801 billion while net sales for the equipment operations were up 10% to $14.284 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $2.978 billion, or $10.20 per diluted share. Third quarter net income results included a $243 million tax benefit and a $47 million of associated interest income stemming from a favorable tax ruling on Brazilian VAT tax subsidies.

幻燈片 3 從第三季度的結果開始。淨銷售額和收入增長 12%，達到 158.01 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額增長 10%，達到 142.84 億美元。迪爾公司應占淨利潤為 29.78 億美元，或攤薄後每股收益 10.20 美元。第三季度淨利潤包括 2.43 億美元的稅收優惠和 4700 萬美元的相關利息收入，這些利息收入源自巴西增值稅稅收補貼的有利稅收裁決。

Turning now to Slide 4. Let's begin our segment review with the production and precision ag business. Net sales of $6.806 billion were up 12% compared to the third quarter last year, primarily due to price realization. Price realization for the quarter was positive by just under 12 points. Currency translation was also positive by approximately 1 point.

現在轉向幻燈片 4。讓我們開始對生產和精密農業業務進行細分回顧。淨銷售額為 68.06 億美元，較去年第三季度增長 12%，這主要是由於價格實現。本季度的價格實現上漲略低於 12 個百分點。貨幣換算也呈正值約 1 個百分點。

Operating profit was $1.782 billion, resulting in a 26.2% operating margin for the quarter. The year-over-year increase was driven by favorable price realization, improved shipment volumes and favorable sales mix, which was partially offset by higher production costs, increased SA&G and R&D spending and unfavorable currency exchange.

營業利潤為 17.82 億美元，該季度營業利潤率為 26.2%。同比增長是由有利的價格實現、出貨量的改善和有利的銷售組合推動的，但部分增長被生產成本上升、SA&G 和研發支出增加以及不利的貨幣兌換所抵消。

Shifting to small ag and turf on Slide 5. Net sales were up 3%, totaling $3.739 billion in the third quarter. The increase was a result of price realization, which was partially offset by lower shipment volumes. Price realization was positive by slightly over 9 points. Currency was also positive by slightly under 0.5 point.

幻燈片 5 轉向小型農業和地盤。第三季度淨銷售額增長 3%，總計 37.39 億美元。這一增長是價格實現的結果，但部分被出貨量下降所抵消。價格實現略高於 9 個點。貨幣也上漲略低於 0.5 點。

Operating profit improved year-over-year to $732 million, resulting in 19.6% operating margin. The year-over-year increase was primarily due to price realization and was partially offset by higher production costs, lower shipment volumes and increased SA&G and R&D spending.

營業利潤同比增長至 7.32 億美元，營業利潤率為 19.6%。同比增長主要是由於價格實現，但部分被生產成本上升、出貨量下降以及 SA&G 和研發支出增加所抵消。

Slide 6 shows our industry outlook for ag and turf markets globally. In the U.S. and Canada, we expect industry sales of large ag equipment to be up approximately 10% during the fiscal year, reflecting a continuation of strong demand. Ag fundamentals remained solid with farm net income expected to be near historical highs even if down from last year's record levels.

幻燈片 6 顯示了我們對全球農業和草坪市場的行業前景。在美國和加拿大，我們預計本財年大型農業設備的行業銷售額將增長約 10%，反映出需求持續強勁。農業基本面仍然穩固，即使低於去年的創紀錄水平，農業淨收入預計也將接近歷史高位。

Drier weather conditions over the summer put some downward pressure on yields, tightening ending grain stock estimates and further supporting commodity prices. Solid order visibility provides a high level of confidence as we move into the fourth quarter.

夏季乾燥的天氣條件給單產帶來了一定的下行壓力，收緊了最終糧食庫存預測，並進一步支撐了大宗商品價格。當我們進入第四季度時，紮實的訂單可見性為我們提供了高度的信心。

Within small ag and turf, we estimate industry sales in the U.S. and Canada to be down between 5% and 10% and as strength from mid-sized equipment continues to be offset by weaker consumer-oriented products, which have been pulled down in part by high interest rates.

在小型農業和領域內，我們估計美國和加拿大的行業銷售額將下降 5% 至 10%，並且中型設備的強勁勢頭繼續被消費者導向產品的疲軟所抵消，這些產品已部分下降通過高利率。

Mid-sized tractors in the 100- to 180-horsepower range are sold out for the remainder of the year while production cuts in the sub-40-horsepower compact tractor range have helped to bring inventory levels down from April highs. Hay and forage continues to see significant year-over-year increases as production shortages in 2022 fully abate.

100 至 180 馬力範圍內的中型拖拉機在今年剩餘時間內銷售一空，而 40 馬力以下緊湊型拖拉機範圍的減產有助於使庫存水平從 4 月份的高點下降。隨著 2022 年產量短缺的完全緩解，乾草和飼料繼續同比大幅增長。

Turning to Europe. The industry is forecasted to be flat to up 5% for fiscal year 2023. Our visibility for the rest of 2023 remains excellent as order books are largely presold at this point in the year. In South America, we expect industry sales of tractors and combines to be flat to down 5% following a record year of equipment in 2022.

轉向歐洲。預計 2023 財年該行業將持平至增長 5%。我們對 2023 年剩餘時間的前景仍然良好，因為今年此時訂單大部分已預售。在南美洲，我們預計拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷量將持平，甚至下降 5%，繼 2022 年設備銷量創下紀錄之後。

Positive sentiment around record grain production in 2023 was somewhat offset by political uncertainty and a delayed government-sponsored financing plan. The market remains stable and order books now provide visibility through the remainder of 2023. Industry sales in Asia are forecasted to be down moderately as volumes in India remain subdued when compared to record levels in 2021.

圍繞 2023 年創紀錄糧食產量的積極情緒在一定程度上被政治不確定性和政府資助的融資計劃推遲所抵消。市場保持穩定，訂單簿現在可以在 2023 年剩餘時間內提供可見性。預計亞洲的行業銷售額將適度下降，因為與 2021 年創紀錄的水平相比，印度的銷量仍然低迷。

Moving now to segment forecast on Slide 7. For production and precision ag, net sales continue to be forecasted up around 20% for the fiscal year. The forecast assumes a roughly 15 points of positive price realization for the full year and minimal currency impact. Segment operating margin for the year remains between 25% and 26%, reflecting strong execution globally.

現在轉向幻燈片 7 上的細分預測。對於生產和精密農業，本財年的淨銷售額預計將繼續增長 20% 左右。該預測假設全年價格實現約 15 個百分點的正值，且貨幣影響最小。今年分部營業利潤率保持在 25% 至 26% 之間，反映出全球強勁的執行力。

Slide 8 gives our forecast for the small ag and turf segment. Net sales are expected to remain up around 5% in fiscal year 2023. Guidance includes about 9 points of positive price realization and approximately 1 point of currency headwind. The segment's projected operating margin is now between 17% and 18%, reflecting stronger-than-expected operational efficiency, notably in Europe.

幻燈片 8 給出了我們對小型農業和草坪細分市場的預測。預計 2023 財年淨銷售額將保持 5% 左右的增長。指導意見包括約 9 個點的正價格實現和約 1 個點的貨幣逆風。該部門的預計運營利潤率目前在 17% 至 18% 之間，反映出運營效率強於預期，尤其是在歐洲。

Now switching to construction and forestry on Slide 9. Net sales for the quarter were $3.739 billion, up 14%, primarily due to price realization and higher shipment volumes. Price realization was positive by nearly 10 points and currency translation was also positive by approximately 0.5 point. Operating profit increased year-over-year to $716 million, resulting in a 19.1% operating margin due to price realization and improved shipment volumes. These were partially offset by increased SA&G and R&D expenses, higher production costs and unfavorable currency impact.

現在轉向幻燈片 9 上的建築和林業。該季度的淨銷售額為 37.39 億美元，增長 14%，主要是由於價格實現和發貨量增加。價格實現上漲近 10 個點，貨幣換算也上漲約 0.5 個點。營業利潤同比增長至 7.16 億美元，由於價格實現和出貨量增加，營業利潤率達到 19.1%。這些損失被增加的 SA&G 和研發費用、更高的生產成本以及不利的貨幣影響所部分抵消。

Slide 10 shows our 2023 industry outlook for construction and forestry. Industry sales of earthmoving and compact construction equipment in North America are both projected to remain flat to up 5%. Demand for earthmoving and compact construction equipment remains robust, driven primarily by the early stages of infrastructure spending and rental re-fleeting. The industry also benefited from some stabilization and housing as well as reshoring efforts in the manufacturing sector, which are helping to offset weaknesses in office and commercial real estate.

幻燈片 10 顯示了我們對建築和林業 2023 年的行業展望。北美土方和緊湊型建築設備的行業銷售額預計將保持平穩，增幅為 5%。對土方和緊湊型建築設備的需求仍然強勁，這主要是由早期階段的基礎設施支出和租金更新推動的。該行業還受益於製造業的一些穩定和住房以及回流努力，這些努力有助於抵消辦公和商業房地產的疲軟。

In forestry, we estimate the global industry will be flat to down 5% with growth in Europe offset by softening markets in the U.S. and Canada. Global roadbuilding markets are forecasted to be flat to up 5%. Strong performance in North America and emerging markets in South America and India are supporting strong fundamentals across Europe.

在林業方面，我們估計全球行業將持平或下降 5%，歐洲的增長被美國和加拿大市場的疲軟所抵消。全球道路建設市場預計將持平至增長 5%。北美以及南美和印度新興市場的強勁表現支撐著整個歐洲強勁的基本面。

Continuing on with the C&F segment outlook on Slide 11. Deere's construction and forestry 2023 net sales are now forecasted up between 15% and 20% with the results likely to converge towards the middle of that range. Our net sales guidance for the year contains about 11 points of positive price realization. Operating margin is now expected to be between 18.5% to 19.5%.

繼續幻燈片 11 中的 C&F 部門展望。目前預測迪爾 2023 年建築和林業淨銷售額將增長 15% 至 20%，結果可能會趨於該範圍的中間。我們今年的淨銷售指導包含大約 11 個積極的價格實現點。目前預計營業利潤率在 18.5% 至 19.5% 之間。

Next, we'll transition to our financial services operations on Slide 12. Worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere & Company in the third quarter was $216 million. The 3% year-over-year increase was due to the income earned on a higher average portfolio, partially offset by less favorite financing spreads.

接下來，我們將過渡到幻燈片 12 上的金融服務業務。第三季度歸屬於迪爾公司的全球金融服務淨利潤為 2.16 億美元。同比增長 3% 是由於較高的平均投資組合所賺取的收入，部分被不太受歡迎的融資利差所抵消。

For fiscal year 2023, our outlook remains at $630 million, reflecting less favorable financing spreads; the second quarter correction of the accounting treatment for financing incentives; a higher provision for credit losses; increased SA&G expenses; and lower gains on operating lease dispositions. These were partially offset by benefits from a higher average portfolio balance.

對於 2023 財年，我們的前景仍為 6.3 億美元，反映出融資利差不太有利；第二季度融資激勵會計處理的更正；更高的信用損失準備金； SA&G 費用增加；經營租賃處置收益下降。這些被較高的平均投資組合餘額帶來的好處部分抵消。

Finally, Slide 13 outlines our guidance for net income, effective tax rate and operating cash flow. For fiscal year '23, we are raising our outlook for net income by $0.5 billion, to be between $9.75 billion and $10 billion, reflecting another quarter of strong results and continued optimism for the remainder of the year.

最後，幻燈片 13 概述了我們對淨利潤、有效稅率和運營現金流的指導。對於 23 財年，我們將淨利潤預期上調了 5 億美元，達到 97.5 億美元至 100 億美元之間，反映出又一個季度的強勁業績以及對今年剩餘時間的持續樂觀情緒。

Next, our guidance incorporates an updated effective tax rate between 21% and 23%, which reflects the impact of a favorable tax ruling in Brazil as mentioned earlier. Lastly, cash flow from equipment operations is now projected to be in the range of $10.5 billion to $11 billion.

接下來，我們的指導意見納入了 21% 至 23% 之間的更新有效稅率，這反映了前面提到的巴西優惠稅收裁決的影響。最後，設備運營產生的現金流目前預計在 105 億美元至 110 億美元之間。

This concludes our formal remarks. We will now turn to a few specific topics relevant to the quarter before opening the line for Q&A. Let's begin with Deere's performance this quarter, Brent.

我們的正式發言到此結束。在開始問答之前，我們現在將討論與本季度相關的一些具體主題。讓我們從迪爾本季度的表現開始吧，布倫特。

We had another really strong quarter with operational results coming in just ahead of our own expectations. Net sales for equipment operations were up 10% year-over-year while operating margins came in at 22.6% for the quarter. Can you break down what went well for us this quarter?

我們又經歷了一個非常強勁的季度，運營業績略高於我們自己的預期。本季度設備業務的淨銷售額同比增長 10%，營業利潤率為 22.6%。您能否詳細分析一下本季度我們哪些方面進展順利？

Thanks, Josh. First, our factories ran really well in the third quarter. We saw continued progress from our supply base, enabling our operations to hit production schedules almost exactly as planned. This precise execution from our factories is evident in our top line quarterly cadence, which will show a return to normal seasonality in 2023 when compared to 2022. And a return to normal seasonality is incredibly important to us because it means that we are delivering on our customer commitments to get the machines in season. Importantly, this is a real testament to our factory teams.

謝謝，喬什。首先，我們的工廠在第三季度運行得非常好。我們看到我們的供應基地不斷取得進展，使我們的運營幾乎完全按照計劃完成生產計劃。我們工廠的這種精確執行在我們的季度季度節奏中得到了明顯體現，與2022 年相比，這將表明2023 年將恢復正常季節性。恢復正常季節性對我們來說非常重要，因為這意味著我們正在兌現我們的承諾客戶承諾及時獲得機器。重要的是，這是對我們工廠團隊的真實證明。

And the real story, as you alluded to, is around margins, right? All three divisions saw lower-than-expected production cost inflation as our operational teams continued to deliver on cost reduction activities, having eliminated many of the inflationary and disruption-driven costs over the last couple of years. This was especially notable for construction and forestry, which delivered record year-to-date margin performance.

正如您所提到的，真正的故事是圍繞利潤的，對吧？所有三個部門的生產成本通脹均低於預期，因為我們的運營團隊繼續開展成本削減活動，消除了過去幾年的許多通脹和中斷驅動的成本。這對於建築業和林業來說尤其引人注目，它們今年迄今的利潤率表現創歷史新高。

In addition to exceptional near-term execution, construction and forestry is also benefiting from executing on our business strategy, as shown by our successful integration of Wirtgen, the dissolution of our Deere-Hitachi joint venture and the strategic portfolio actions that have helped us focus the business.

除了出色的近期執行力外，建築和林業也受益於我們業務戰略的執行，如我們成功整合維特根、解散迪爾-日立合資企業以及幫助我​​們集中精力的戰略投資組合行動所表明的那樣。這生意。

As it relates to the quarter, these results underpin our commitment to operational excellence. With supply chains continuing to improve, we have been able to reduce delinquencies and improve resiliency in our supply base. In premium freight alone, we've been able to reduce costs by nearly 50% this year when compared to last year. From a production standpoint, we've seen material cost inflation come down meaningfully throughout the year. We expect this trend to continue throughout the rest of the year.

就本季度而言，這些結果鞏固了我們對卓越運營的承諾。隨著供應鏈的不斷改善，我們已經能夠減少拖欠並提高供應基地的彈性。僅在高級貨運方面，我們今年就比去年降低了近 50% 的成本。從生產的角度來看，我們看到全年材料成本通脹顯著下降。我們預計這一趨勢將在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。

And when you successfully execute on all of these different initiatives simultaneously, you get factories that fundamentally run better. Across the board, we're seeing smoother operations, leaner in-process inventories and better ability to meet our delivery commitments, which ultimately lead to a better customer experience.

當您同時成功執行所有這些不同的計劃時，您的工廠將從根本上運行得更好。總體而言，我們看到運營更加順暢，在製品庫存更加精簡，履行交付承諾的能力也更加出色，最終帶來更好的客戶體驗。

That's great. Thanks, Brent. With operations running much more smoothly, maybe we can flip to the other side of the equation. There's been a large amount of focus on industry fundamentals, both from a construction and an ag perspective.

那太棒了。謝謝，布倫特。隨著操作運行得更加順利，也許我們可以轉向等式的另一邊。無論是從建築業還是農業的角度來看，人們都非常關注行業的基本面。

I'd like to start with construction equipment. We've seen record amounts of government funding announced in the past few years. Alongside the IIJA and CHIPS Act, the IRA has already announced more than $130 billion worth of clean energy projects. How are construction fundamentals faring today?

我想從建築設備開始。過去幾年，我們宣布了創紀錄的政府資助金額。除了《IIJA》和《CHIPS 法案》之外，IRA 還宣布了價值超過 1300 億美元的清潔能源項目。今天的建築基本面進展如何？

Yes, that's great context, Josh. Earthmoving industry fundamentals remain quite strong, driven by construction job growth across most sectors, and in particular, large infrastructure project spending. Coupled with continued rental industry re-fleeting, demand is expected to remain steady throughout the remainder of the year. And while we see nice tailwinds from mega project spendings tied to government funds, most of these projects will primarily benefit 2024 and potentially even 2025, supporting an elongated cycle for construction equipment sales.

是的，這是很好的背景，喬什。在大多數行業的建築業就業增長，特別是大型基礎設施項目支出的推動下，土方行業的基本面仍然相當強勁。再加上租賃行業的持續復甦，預計今年剩餘時間需求將保持穩定。雖然我們看到與政府資金相關的大型項目支出帶來了良好的推動力，但這些項目中的大多數將主要受益於 2024 年，甚至可能到 2025 年，從而支持建築設備銷售週期的延長。

In the near term, the residential housing market, while down from the highs in 2021, has stabilized despite elevated interest rates. For non-res demand, reshoring trends are driving manufacturing projects while sectors linked to office space and apartment building construction remain quite sluggish. Ultimately, this demand backdrop translates to a strong 6-month rolling order book extending into the second quarter of 2024. And finally, while we have had some success increasing inventory from historic lows, inventory-to-sales ratios still remain well below target levels.

短期來看，住宅市場雖然較 2021 年的高點有所回落，但儘管利率有所上升，但已趨於穩定。對於非資源需求，回流趨勢正在推動製造業項目，而與辦公空間和公寓樓建設相關的行業仍然相當低迷。最終，這種需求背景將轉化為持續到2024 年第二季度的強勁的6 個月滾動訂單。最後，儘管我們在將庫存從歷史低點增加到一定程度方面取得了一些成功，但庫存與銷售比率仍遠低於目標水平。

Okay. That's perfect. So near-term construction fundamentals remain resilient and the business appears to be very well positioned on the construction side heading into 2024.

好的。那很完美。因此，近期建築業基本面仍保持彈性，並且到 2024 年，該業務在建築業方面似乎處於非常有利的地位。

Focusing now on ag fundamentals. Farmers are expected to have another strong year relative to historicals. WASDE just released its latest forecast last week, showing crop yields down and stocks tightening. How should we be thinking about farmer fundamentals, Brent?

現在關注農業基本面。與歷史相比，預計農民將迎來又一個強勁的一年。 WASDE 上周剛剛發布了最新預測，顯示農作物產量下降，庫存收緊。布倫特，我們應該如何考慮農民的基本面？

Grain prices have definitely seen a large amount of volatility this year. But equipment demand has remained strong, particularly for large ag. While down year-over-year, crop prices are forecasted to be the third highest in over a decade. And in North America, farmers are projected to have another year of healthy net income. Additionally, farm inputs have trended back down to pre-COVID levels, providing a benefit to next year's farm margins.

今年糧食價格確實出現了較大波動。但設備需求仍然強勁，尤其是大型農業。儘管農作物價格同比下降，但預計將達到十多年來的第三高位。在北美，農民預計又將獲得健康的淨收入。此外，農場投入已趨於回落至新冠疫情前的水平，這為明年的農場利潤帶來了好處。

And finally, as grain production remains subject to ever-volatile weather patterns and adverse geopolitical events, expect stocks use to remain tighter for a bit longer. So in summary, ag fundamentals are still supportive in the North American market. Farmers will continue to see relatively healthy economics, supported by downward-trending input cost and continued constraint on grain supplies globally.

最後，由於糧食生產仍然受到不斷變化的天氣模式和不利的地緣政治事件的影響，預計庫存使用將在更長時間內保持緊張狀態。總而言之，北美市場的農業基本面仍然受到支持。在投入成本呈下降趨勢和全球糧食供應持續受到限制的支持下，農民將繼續看到相對健康的經濟狀況。

Thanks, Brent. That's great color on the U.S. and Canada. If we look outside North America, how will we see these fundamentals impacting Brazil?

謝謝，布倫特。這對美國和加拿大來說是很棒的顏色。如果我們把目光投向北美以外的地區，我們將如何看待這些基本面因素對巴西的影響？

Yes, Brazil has been a real dynamic market this year. Earlier in the year, we saw some of the political uncertainty and the delayed government-sponsored financing plans weigh on sentiment. While profitability has been very good, some farmers generated lower-than-expected income due to lower grain prices, combined with a strengthening Brazilian currency relative to the U.S. dollar.

是的，巴西今年確實是一個充滿活力的市場。今年早些時候，我們看到一些政治不確定性和政府資助的融資計劃推遲，影響了市場情緒。雖然盈利能力非常好，但由於穀物價格下跌以及巴西貨幣相對於美元走強，一些農民的收入低於預期。

As such, we saw the industry forecast come in a bit. And as a result, we trimmed our equipment production some in the back half of 2023. At this point, the order book extends through the fiscal year. And our presold position is robust, eclipsing 90% for combines.

因此，我們看到行業預測出現了一些變化。因此，我們在 2023 年下半年削減了一些設備產量。此時，訂單簿延續到整個財年。我們的預售情況非常強勁，超過了聯合收割機的 90%。

And Brent, this is Josh Jepsen. Just to add to that, Brazil still experienced record production this year. We're seeing continued acreage expansion and a supportive government-sponsored financing program is now in place. So long term, Brazil remains a key market for us that we'll continue to invest in for the future as we accelerate precision technologies in the region.

布倫特，這是喬什·傑普森。除此之外，巴西今年的產量仍創下紀錄。我們看到種植面積持續擴大，政府資助的支持性融資計劃現已到位。從長遠來看，巴西仍然是我們的一個關鍵市場，隨著我們加速該地區精密技術的發展，我們將繼續在未來投資。

Thanks, Josh. Now switching back to the North American market. With order books full through the end of the year, how are new field inventory levels shaping up as we exit 2023 and begin planning for '24?

謝謝，喬什。現在又轉回北美市場。由於訂單簿到年底都已滿，當我們退出 2023 年並開始規劃 24 世紀時，新的現場庫存水平會如何形成？

That's a great question, Josh. Starting from the top, all of our North America large ag production is sold out for this year. We expect ending year-over-year changes in new field inventory to be modest. In-season inventory increases have largely corresponded to our quarterly production schedules, which will come down in the fourth quarter. Combine inventory, for example, saw its highest level in the second quarter and is currently down from its peak.

這是一個很好的問題，喬什。從上往下看，我們今年北美的大型農產品產量全部售罄。我們預計新油田庫存的年末變化將不大。當季庫存增加很大程度上與我們的季度生產計劃相對應，季度生產計劃將在第四季度下降。例如，聯合庫存在第二季度達到最高水平，目前已較峰值有所下降。

We will see that figure step down further in connection with seasonal retail activity ahead of harvest. And while high-horsepower tractor inventory remains sequentially flattish in the third quarter, we'll see that drop off at the end of the fourth quarter, which is typically the highest retail quarter for tractors. Keep in mind that combines and high-horsepower tractors are 95%-plus retail sold to customers already.

我們將看到這一數字因收穫前的季節性零售活動而進一步下降。雖然大馬力拖拉機庫存在第三季度仍然持平，但我們將在第四季度末看到庫存下降，這通常是拖拉機零售最高的季度。請記住，95% 以上的聯合收割機和大馬力拖拉機已零售銷售給客戶。

Perfect. So we will expect to see inventories wind down further throughout the fourth quarter. Now what about used inventories? We've seen those rise pretty significantly year-over-year from their historic lows last year.

完美的。因此，我們預計第四季度庫存將進一步減少。現在二手庫存怎麼樣？我們看到這些數字較去年的歷史低點逐年顯著上升。

We have. But the key phrase here is historic lows last year. When you are starting with a historically small existing inventory base, like we had in 2022, even modest changes in units will reflect large percentage increases. That said, our dealers have been watching used inventories very closely and have been managing them proactively. Large ag equipment has roughly four to five owners over its useful life in North America. So for every combine or tractor we sell, a dealer will typically facilitate three to four additional transactions as used equipment works its way down the trade ladder.

我們有。但這裡的關鍵詞是去年的歷史低點。當您從歷史上較小的現有庫存基礎開始時，就像我們在 2022 年那樣，即使單位的微小變化也會反映出很大的百分比增長。也就是說，我們的經銷商一直在非常密切地關註二手庫存並積極主動地管理它們。在北美，大型農業設備的使用壽命內大約有四到五個所有者。因此，對於我們銷售的每台聯合收割機或拖拉機，隨著二手設備在貿易階梯上的發展，經銷商通常會促成三到四筆額外的交易。

Now when you put it in the context of my previous comments around new inventory, it would make sense that we saw inventory levels rise during the middle part of the calendar year. However, if we look at used combines, for example, we saw a 10% decrease in used inventory since May. Also, August tends to be an important month for used inventory. So we'll watch closely how that trends. Importantly, used gear inventory for both combines and tractors remains about 20% lower than the 7-year average on a unit basis.

現在，當你把它放在我之前關於新庫存的評論的背景下時，我們看到庫存水平在日曆年中期上升是有道理的。然而，例如，如果我們看一下二手聯合收割機，我們發現自 5 月份以來，二手聯合收割機庫存下降了 10%。此外，八月往往是二手庫存的重要月份。因此，我們將密切關注這一趨勢。重要的是，聯合收割機和拖拉機的二手齒輪庫存仍比 7 年平均水平低 20% 左右。

And this is Josh, maybe one thing, too, to highlight. Just I think the important takeaway here is that by year-end, we expect both new and used inventory levels to be below historic levels on a unit basis, so really position us well as we exit '23 into '24.

這就是喬什，也許也是值得強調的一件事。我認為這裡重要的一點是，到年底，我們預計新庫存和二手庫存水平都將低於歷史水平，因此，當我們從 23 年退出到 24 年時，我們確實處於有利位置。

Perfect. But how are we doing from an EOP perspective in North America?

完美的。但從 EOP 的角度來看，我們在北美的表現如何？

At this point, we've kicked off, and in some cases, closed our early order programs for a few product lines. I want to caveat here that it is still early. And while we don't have a fully formed view, the early order programs are giving us some early data points. We launched our sprayer EOP back in May and the program ended July 31. The we have sold out all of our model year '24 production slots with unit sales up double digits when compared to model year '23 sprayers.

目前，我們已經啟動並在某些情況下關閉了一些產品線的早期訂單計劃。我想在這裡警告一下，現在還為時過早。雖然我們還沒有形成完整的觀點，但早期訂單計劃為我們提供了一些早期數據點。我們早在 5 月份就推出了噴霧器 EOP，該計劃於 7 月 31 日結束。我們已經售空了所有 24 款噴霧器的生產槽位，與 23 款噴霧器相比，單位銷量增長了兩位數。

The 2024 year-over-year increase reflects improved supply conditions, which had disproportionately limited sprayer production in 2023. Phase 2 of planters opened in mid-July and has just under 2 weeks left to go in the program. Orders are relatively flat compared to the same point in time as the program last year and down 5% relative to the end of last year's EOP. However, we won't have the final read on this year's Early Order Program until the end of August. Importantly, we are seeing favorable mix towards our larger planters and higher take rates on technology.

2024 年的同比增長反映了供應狀況的改善，這極大地限制了 2023 年噴霧機的產量。第二階段的播種機已於 7 月中旬投入使用，該計劃還剩不到兩週的時間。與去年計劃同期相比，訂單量相對持平，與去年 EOP 年底相比下降了 5%。然而，我們要到八月底才能最終了解今年的提前訂購計劃。重要的是，我們看到了對更大的播種機的有利組合和更高的技術採用率。

Our combine early order program just opened at the beginning of this month and has gotten off to a nice start. But it remains too early to extrapolate any data points for 2024 as the program will continue through the end of November. Likewise, our tractor order book has just opened this week for 2Q '24. And we have not had -- we don't have any data points to share at this time. I would note, however, that the order book is currently full through the calendar year '24.

我們的聯合收割機提前訂購計劃於本月初剛剛啟動，並取得了良好的開端。但現在推斷 2024 年的任何數據點還為時過早，因為該計劃將持續到 11 月底。同樣，我們的拖拉機訂單簿本周剛剛開放 2024 年第二季度。我們目前還沒有任何數據點可以分享。不過，我要指出的是，24 年的訂單目前已滿。

Thanks for the color on North America, Brent. Clearly, too early to tell here, but it sounds like preliminary data is supportive. To round out our discussion, can we focus on Europe and discuss how things are shaping up there for next year?

感謝布倫特對北美的報導。顯然，現在下結論還為時過早，但聽起來初步數據是有支持性的。為了結束我們的討論，我們能否重點關注歐洲並討論明年那裡的情況如何？

Yes, absolutely. And actually, Josh, I just want to amend my prior statement. Tractors are sold out through calendar year '23, not to '24. In Europe, however, order books are stretching into the second quarter of 2024, providing decent visibility. But with some early order programs having just kicked off, it remains too early to form a view on 2024 outlook. Expect markets in Europe to remain dynamic with outlooks varying a bit between Western Europe versus Central and Eastern markets.

是的，一點沒錯。事實上，喬什，我只是想修改我之前的聲明。拖拉機在 23 日曆年（而不是 24 日曆年）售完。然而，在歐洲，訂單簿一直持續到 2024 年第二季度，提供了良好的可見性。但由於一些早期訂單計劃剛剛啟動，現在對 2024 年的前景形成看法還為時過早。預計歐洲市場將保持活力，西歐市場與中東市場的前景略有不同。

Western markets are seeing arable cash margins -- are seeing arable cash flow stabilize at supportive levels while declining input cost will help buttress financials going into next year. Meanwhile, dairy margins may see some pressure in 2024. On the other hand, markets with close proximity to Ukraine will contend with lower commodity prices as reduced port access means grains are flowing over neighboring borders, pressuring local prices. All-in, expect Europe to remain a dynamic market going into 2024. And we'll have a more informed view as we get closer to the start of our fiscal year.

西方市場的可耕現金流量穩定在支撐水平，而投入成本下降將有助於支撐明年的財務狀況。與此同時，乳製品利潤率可能會在2024 年面臨一些壓力。另一方面，靠近烏克蘭的市場將面臨大宗商品價格下跌的壓力，因為港口通道的減少意味著穀物流經鄰近邊境，從而對當地價格造成壓力。總而言之，預計歐洲在 2024 年之前仍將是一個充滿活力的市場。隨著接近本財年的開始，我們將獲得更明智的觀點。

And one point I'd add to highlight in Europe is our dealer network. We continue to see higher levels of sales flowing through dealers of scale. This has driven better market share, higher rates of precision ag adoption and overall stronger businesses for our dealers and Deere.

我想在歐洲補充強調的一點是我們的經銷商網絡。我們繼續看到規模經銷商的銷售額不斷提高。這為我們的經銷商和迪爾帶來了更好的市場份額、更高的精準農業採用率以及整體更強勁的業務。

Perfect. That's great insight. I now I have one last question for you, Josh. Given the high level of cash flow this year, we've had an opportunity to execute on all elements of our capital allocation priorities. Can you walk through some of the decisions we've made this year with respect to funding further investments in our business, both organic and inorganic, while at the same time returning higher levels of capital back to investors?

完美的。這是偉大的洞察力。我現在有最後一個問題要問你，喬什。鑑於今年的現金流量較高，我們有機會執行資本配置優先事項的所有要素。您能否介紹一下我們今年做出的一些決定，這些決定涉及為我們的業務（包括有機和無機）的進一步投資提供資金，同時向投資者返還更高水平的資本？

Yes, great question, Josh. This is, first and foremost, a direct reflection of the strong performance this year, which is projected to yield between $10.5 billion and $11 billion in operating cash flow for the equipment operations. We're very proud of what we've been able to accomplish this year and are encouraged by our ability to both invest aggressively in the business while at the same time returning a significant amount of earnings to our shareholders.

是的，好問題，喬什。首先，這直接反映了今年的強勁業績，預計設備業務將產生 105 億至 110 億美元的運營現金流。我們對今年所取得的成就感到非常自豪，並對我們在業務上積極投資的同時向股東返還大量收益的能力感到鼓舞。

During the year, we've increased R&D 15%. We pulled ahead some CapEx projects into 2023 and has still managed to simultaneously deliver over $5.5 billion to shareholders year-to-date through dividends and share repurchases. It further reinforces our excitement for the future and the opportunities we see ahead as we execute on the strategy, unlocking value for customers.

這一年裡，我們的研發投入增加了 15%。我們將一些資本支出項目推遲到 2023 年，今年迄今仍設法通過股息和股票回購同時向股東交付超過 55 億美元。它進一步增強了我們對未來的興奮，以及我們在執行戰略時看到的未來機遇，為客戶釋放價值。

Thanks, Josh. And before we open up the line for questions, do you have any final thoughts you'd like to share?

謝謝，喬什。在我們開始提問之前，您有什麼最後的想法想分享嗎？

Yes, thanks. As previously noted, the team is executing at a high level in 2023, which is evident in our results. We're actively working to reduce some of the inflationary and disruption costs experienced over the past couple of years, and we expect to see that benefit continue.

對了謝謝。如前所述，該團隊在 2023 年的執行水平很高，這在我們的結果中顯而易見。我們正在積極努力減少過去幾年中經歷的一些通貨膨脹和破壞成本，並且我們預計這種好處將持續下去。

Over the last decade, we've been on a journey to deliver more value per unit. This is clearly visible today through our higher revenues on lower new units, making us less dependent on new unit sales to drive increased levels of performance. As we continue to execute our strategy, this trend should accelerate even faster over the coming years. By utilizing our production systems approach and leveraging the tech stack, we can help our customers do their jobs more profitably and sustainably. That is our purpose. And we are more excited about it each day.

在過去的十年中，我們一直致力於為單位提供更多價值。今天，通過我們在較低的新單位上獲得更高的收入，可以清楚地看到這一點，這使我們不再依賴新單位銷售來推動業績水平的提高。隨著我們繼續執行我們的戰略，這一趨勢在未來幾年應該會加速得更快。通過利用我們的生產系統方法和技術堆棧，我們可以幫助我們的客戶更有利地、更可持續地完成他們的工作。這就是我們的目的。我們每天都對此感到更加興奮。

Thanks, Josh. Now let's open up the line for questions from our investors.

謝謝，喬什。現在讓我們歡迎投資者提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

Josh, I'm wondering if we could just continue the discussion you just touched on in terms of higher value per unit. So in the past, you folks have been able to outgrow ASPs by 3% to 4% per year beyond price. Do you have a finer point that you can share on what that might look like in '24 and if you could just touch on precision ag take rates and how they're tracking as part of that conversation as well if you don't mind?

喬什，我想知道我們是否可以繼續您剛才談到的關於更高單位價值的討論。因此，在過去，你們的平均售價每年比價格增長 3% 到 4%。您是否有更詳細的觀點可以分享一下 24 年的情況，如果您不介意的話，您是否可以談談精確農業的採用率以及他們如何跟踪作為對話的一部分？

Yes. Thanks, Jerry, appreciate the question. I think we're seeing that continued trend of 3, 4 points on top of the inflationary price as it relates to technology and the appetite we're seeing to continue to drive technology into the machines. As we look forward and start to drive the business model shift, that may change a little bit as we see and build a little more recurring revenue. But I think all-in, we're continuing to see the benefits on the unit economics through what we're doing in technology and the value that we can create for customers.

是的。謝謝，傑瑞，謝謝你提出這個問題。我認為，除了通貨膨脹價格之外，我們還看到了 3、4 個百分點的持續趨勢，因為這與技術以及我們看到的繼續將技術引入機器的需求有關。當我們展望並開始推動業務模式轉變時，隨著我們看到並建立更多的經常性收入，情況可能會發生一些變化。但我認為總而言之，我們將繼續看到通過我們在技術方面所做的事情以及我們可以為客戶創造的價值對單位經濟效益的好處。

Yes, Jerry, as it relates to take rates on technology, obviously, we just finished up our sprayer early order program and are near complete on planters. Those are two product lines that have a high degree of technology embedded in those solutions. And for some of those mainstay technology innovations, like ExactEmerge and ExactApply, we continue to see those take rates increase mid-single digits year-over-year.

是的，傑里，因為這涉及到技術的收費，顯然，我們剛剛完成了噴霧器的早期訂購計劃，並且即將完成播種機的工作。這兩條產品線的解決方案中嵌入了高度的技術。對於其中一些主流技術創新，例如 ExactEmerge 和 ExactApply，我們繼續看到這些技術的採用率同比增長中個位數。

I mean, both of those are really approaching high levels. I think ExactEmerge is around 60% for 2024, ExactApply is a little over 70%. So great progress on those. Other products, like Combine Advisor, have almost just become standard. I think we're at almost 100% take rate there. And the same is true for our premium and automation activation suite for our tractors, which is almost near 100% take rates.

我的意思是，這兩者都確實接近高水平。我認為 2024 年 ExactEmerge 約為 60%，ExactApply 略高於 70%。這些方面取得了很大進展。其他產品，例如Combine Advisor，幾乎剛剛成為標準。我認為我們的接受率幾乎是 100%。我們的拖拉機高級自動化激活套件也是如此，其利用率幾乎接近 100%。

So these things are really driving that higher average selling price that Josh talked about. And as we begin to launch some of those next-generation technologies. I think we've got opportunity to supplement the higher average selling prices with some reoccurring revenues as we get into '25, '26 and beyond.

因此，這些因素確實推動了喬什談到的更高的平均售價。當我們開始推出一些下一代技術時。我認為，當我們進入 25 年、26 年及以後時，我們有機會用一些經常性收入來補充較高的平均售價。

Yes, Jerry, maybe one last thing I'd add, too, that bodes well in terms of the direction we're headed is we're seeing growth in engaged acres and we're seeing growth in highly engaged acres. So the interaction we're seeing, the value that we can create with our digital tools and having that all in one place in the John Deere Operations Center for our customers is continuing to drive value. And we're seeing that continue to aid in our business.

是的，傑里，也許我還要補充的最後一件事是，就我們前進的方向而言，這是一個好兆頭，我們看到參與面積的增長，並且我們看到高度參與面積的增長。因此，我們所看到的互動、我們可以使用數字工具創造的價值以及將所有這些都集中在約翰迪爾運營中心為我們的客戶提供的服務，正在繼續推動價值。我們看到這繼續對我們的業務有所幫助。

Our next question is from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的傑米·庫克。

Congrats on a nice quarter. I guess, my first question, as it relates to -- it sounds like supply chain is getting better, which probably bodes well for 2024. So as you're thinking about supply chain getting better and you're looking at your -- what you're seeing so far in terms of this early order program, can you talk to your approach with inventory next year, both for Deere and both at the dealer level, whether you think you will -- would overproduce retail demand to achieve some more normalized inventory levels? I guess, that's my first question.

恭喜您度過了一個美好的季度。我想，我的第一個問題涉及——聽起來供應鏈正在變得更好，這可能是2024 年的好兆頭。因此，當你考慮供應鏈變得更好並且你正在考慮你的——什麼時到目前為止，您所看到的早期訂單計劃，您能否談談明年的庫存方法，無論是迪爾還是經銷商層面，無論您是否認為您會過度生產零售需求，以實現更多目標標準化庫存水平？我想，這是我的第一個問題。

And then my second question, Josh, again just on the margin performance of the company, can you talk to where you are with regards to reducing the volatility of your margins? Since that there was a downturn coming, how resilient your orders would be? How is it detrimental towards some of the internal initiatives?

然後是我的第二個問題，喬什，同樣是關於公司的利潤率表現，你能談談你在減少利潤率波動方面的進展嗎？由於經濟低迷即將到來，您的訂單彈性如何？它對某些內部舉措有何不利影響？

Jamie, thanks for the question. I'll start with some comments on supply chain and what that means for our inventory position next year. And Josh can comment on the margin progress. But I think you've been able to see from our results that our factories ran really well in the third quarter. We've got a robust cost agenda still to come in next year. But we're really pleased that the progress we've made on reducing production cost inflation, particularly in the third quarter-to-quarter.

傑米，謝謝你的提問。我將從對供應鏈的一些評論開始，以及這對我們明年的庫存狀況意味著什麼。喬什可以對利潤進展發表評論。但我想你已經從我們的業績中看到我們的工廠在第三季度運行得非常好。明年我們還有一個強有力的成本議程。但我們對在降低生產成本通脹方面取得的進展感到非常高興，特別是在第三季度。

If you look at our production cost inflation numbers in Q3, I mean, they came in about half what we had originally anticipated. So that was really good work by our factory teams and our supply management teams. And I think what you're seeing is we're driving a lot of progress in terms of getting delinquencies down to almost pre-COVID levels. We're driving freight costs down. We're still seeing a little bit of pressure on some of the purchase components and labor and energy are up.

如果你看看我們第三季度的生產成本通脹數據，我的意思是，它們大約是我們最初預期的一半。因此，我們的工廠團隊和供應管理團隊的工作非常出色。我認為您所看到的是，我們在將拖欠率降至幾乎新冠疫情之前的水平方面取得了很大進展。我們正在降低貨運成本。我們仍然看到一些採購組件面臨一些壓力，勞動力和能源也在上漲。

But things are trending in the right direction. And I think we've got a really robust agenda for next year around further cost reduction in the supply base, further resiliency in the supply base and then just designing out cost for future programs next year. All of that is going to help us manage inventory. As we noted, for large ag inventory, we've been sort of below historic levels and below target levels. We'll end the year relatively low as we sort of work through sort of the fourth quarter retail sales that we would anticipate to happen.

但事情正朝著正確的方向發展。我認為我們明年有一個非常強有力的議程，圍繞進一步降低供應基地的成本，進一步增強供應基地的彈性，然後為明年的未來計劃設計成本。所有這些都將幫助我們管理庫存。正如我們所指出的，對於大型農業庫存，我們一直低於歷史水平和目標水平。我們將在年底相對較低的情況下完成我們預計會發生的第四季度零售銷售。

That said, our starting position or sort of our default position, if you will, beginning any fiscal year is always to produce in line with the retail sales. And then we'll leave ourselves some optionality to build as we get through the selling season. So once we have a fully formed view on next year after all of our early order programs are done and after we've made some progress on our tractor order book, we'll leave ourselves a little optionality to determine what's the right level of inventory. And obviously, our dealers will help with that input as well. But again, right now, our default position is to produce in line. But we'll -- given the exit position that we'll have, which will be really attractive from an inventory perspective, we'll leave ourselves some optionality for next year.

也就是說，我們的起始立場或默認立場（如果你願意的話）在任何財政年度開始時始終是按照零售銷售進行生產。然後，當我們度過銷售季節時，我們將為自己留下一些選擇餘地。因此，一旦我們對明年有了一個完整的看法，在我們所有的早期訂單計劃完成之後，在我們的拖拉機訂單簿上取得了一些進展之後，我們就會給自己留下一點選擇權來確定什麼是正確的庫存水平。顯然，我們的經銷商也會提供幫助。但現在，我們的默認立場是排隊生產。但我們會 - 考慮到我們將擁有的退出位置，從庫存角度來看這將非常有吸引力，我們將為明年留下一些選擇。

Yes, Jamie, if you think about reducing volatility, I think there's some near-term things that we're working on. Brent mentioned what we're doing as it relates to cost management, continuing to take some of the cost that we've seen through inflation and disruption out of the system. That's an important one. Continuing to drive technology into our machines, driving, as I just mentioned, more value per unit from an economics point perspective will be beneficial.

是的，傑米，如果你考慮減少波動性，我認為我們正在研究一些近期的事情。布倫特提到了我們正在做的事情，因為它與成本管理有關，繼續將我們在通貨膨脹和系統破壞中看到的一些成本排除在外。這是一個重要的事情。正如我剛才提到的，繼續將技術引入我們的機器，從經濟學角度來看，推動每單位價值的增加將是有益的。

There's a lot of work, great work going on in terms of lifecycle solutions and how we take care of our customers through the life of our products, from first owner down to the fourth and fifth owner. And that activity will help dampen some cyclicality as well. And I think the last one is, maybe a little bit longer term, is we are building the infrastructure to drive solutions as a service for our business in terms of how we shift business model on some of our new technologies. And that's going to help us to deliver more value to customers and importantly to more customers and more acres more quickly. So that's a focus area.

在生命週期解決方案以及我們如何在產品的整個生命週期中照顧客戶（從第一個所有者到第四個和第五個所有者）方面，有大量的工作正在進行，偉大的工作正在進行。這項活動也將有助於抑制一定的周期性。我認為最後一個問題是，也許從長遠來看，我們正在構建基礎設施，以推動我們的業務解決方案即服務，即我們如何在一些新技術上轉變業務模式。這將幫助我們更快地為客戶提供更多價值，更重要的是為更多客戶和更多土地提供價值。所以這是一個重點領域。

Some of those, we're early in the journey. Others, we feel really good about what we're executing on. And I think importantly, structurally, we feel like we're performing from a profitability perspective at a different level. And our expectation is you look at where we're performing today, with volumes as they shift and move up or down, we would move up or down that line based on where we're performing. So we think this is a meaningful structural shift in profitability and one that we're going to keep working on.

其中一些，我們還處於起步階段。其他人，我們對我們正在執行的事情感覺非常好。我認為重要的是，從結構上來說，我們感覺我們正在從不同層面的盈利角度表現。我們的期望是，你看看我們今天的表現，隨著交易量的變化和上下移動，我們會根據我們的表現來上下移動。因此，我們認為這是盈利能力方面的一次有意義的結構性轉變，我們將繼續努力。

Our next question is from Tim Thein with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Tim Thein。

Maybe just on ag, coming back to the comments on Brazil, if you can just maybe help us frame that up a bit just in terms of you mentioned some of the production cuts you made, where you're, I guess, targeting in the second half of the year. How do you think that -- obviously, again a lot of moving parts in a volatile market. But how do you think you'll end the year from an inventory perspective in Brazil as we go into '24 and obviously the dealer inventories? That's the question.

也許只是在ag上，回到對巴西的評論，如果你能幫助我們框架一下，就你提到的一些減產而言，我猜你的目標是在下半年。您如何看待這一點——顯然，在動蕩的市場中又出現了很多變化。但是，當我們進入 24 年，尤其是經銷商庫存時，您認為從巴西的庫存角度來看，今年年底會如何？這就是問題所在。

Yes. As it relates to Brazil, as we noted in our opening comments, it's been a really dynamic year, I think a lot of puts and takes. At this point, the order book is full for the rest of '23. And managing the year has been interesting. We've seen record production for corn soy and near-record production for cotton and sugar, really healthy profitability for customers there, down from 22%. And again, to refer back to our opening comments, probably a little bit less than expected from our customers there as they had lower levels of forward selling this year and I think some difficulty marketing the sizable the crop that they had in 2023.

是的。就巴西而言，正如我們在開場評論中指出的那樣，這是充滿活力的一年，我認為有很多變化。至此，23 年剩餘時間的訂單已滿。管理這一年很有趣。我們看到玉米大豆產量創歷史新高，棉花和糖產量接近創紀錄，這為客戶帶來了真正健康的盈利能力，低於 22%。再次回顧一下我們的開場評論，可能比我們那裡的客戶的預期要少一些，因為他們今年的遠期銷售水平較低，而且我認為營銷他們 2023 年的大量作物有些困難。

You had a little political uncertainty and the delay in the government-sponsored financing program. And that was all kind of embedded in our reduced industry guide from -- we went from flat to flat to down 5%. And that really reflects, for us, lower production in the fourth quarter. But a great example of kind of how we intend to be proactive in managing a dynamic market in almost real time. Brazil has always operated that way. We've been -- we're more dynamic in terms of our order book, our pricing strategy and how we manage production there.

政治上存在一些不確定性，政府資助的融資計劃也出現延遲。這一切都包含在我們縮減的行業指南中——我們從持平到持平，再到下降 5%。對我們來說，這確實反映了第四季度產量的下降。但這是我們打算如何積極主動地幾乎實時管理動態市場的一個很好的例子。巴西一直都是這樣運作的。我們在訂單、定價策略以及生產管理方式方面變得更加動態。

And so the goal is with some of the modest production cuts that we took in the fourth quarter is that we would end the year there with inventory really at target. And so that we would start the year again in that default position of an intent to produce in line with retail sales for 2024. The good news is there, from a combined perspective in particular, I think we're over 90% retail sold.

因此，我們在第四季度進行的一些適度減產的目標是，我們將在年底時使庫存真正達到目標。因此，我們將以按照 2024 年零售額生產的默認立場重新開始新的一年。好消息是，特別是從綜合角度來看，我認為我們的零售額已超過 90%。

So we should have a pretty good read on where inventory is heading for the end of the year, which should well position us for next year. Longer term though, despite maybe some of the market dynamics of this year, Brazil is still one of our most important growth markets. And it's going to be a market that we're going to continue to invest in for the long term, even while we manage production in the short term.

因此，我們應該很好地了解年底的庫存走向，這將為我們明年做好準備。但從長遠來看，儘管今年可能出現一些市場動態，巴西仍然是我們最重要的增長市場之一。這將是一個我們將繼續長期投資的市場，即使我們在短期內管理生產。

Our next question is from Steven Fisher with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文·費舍爾。

So the year-over-year step-down in pricing in production and precision ag from Q2 was a bit bigger than the kind of headwind you had from tougher comparison in the year before. I guess, were you expecting such a big step-down in pricing? I mean, you didn't change your pricing forecast, so maybe it's really not any surprise. But I'm curious if the environment and what you're seeing in the order activity is still supportive of a 2% to 3% pricing, including incentives? And how is the need for incentives kind of shaping up here?

因此，第二季度生產和精密農業定價的同比下降幅度比前一年更嚴格的比較中遇到的阻力要大一些。我想，您是否預料到價格會有如此大幅度的下降？我的意思是，您沒有改變定價預測，所以也許這並不令人意外。但我很好奇，環境以及您在訂單活動中看到的情況是否仍然支持 2% 至 3% 的定價（包括激勵措施）？這裡對激勵措施的需求是如何形成的？

Steve, as it relates to pricing, I would say that the second quarter came in almost right on the forecast for production and precision ag and construction and forestry. Small ag and turf probably fared just a shade better as they're retaining a little more price than we had in the forecast. But all of this is largely in line with our expectations. Particularly as we lap some of the mid-year price increases that we took in '22, we would expect from a percentage basis to see that price realization come in.

史蒂夫，就定價而言，我想說第二季度的生產和精密農業、建築和林業的預測幾乎正確。小型農業和草坪的表現可能稍好一些，因為它們保留的價格比我們預測的要高一些。但這一切都在很大程度上符合我們的預期。特別是當我們經歷了 22 年年中的一些價格上漲時，我們預計會從百分比的基礎上看到價格的實現。

For production and precision ag, I think we were 12% in the third quarter. That should be high single digits in the fourth quarter as expected. And importantly though, we're seeing production cost inflation ratchet down at a similar pace. So when you look at the absolute delta between price and cost, for production and precision ag, for example, I think we were about $1.4 billion positive in the first half. Second half should be something not dissimilar to that. So we are maintaining that price/cost discipline, I think, throughout the entire year.

對於生產和精密農業，我認為第三季度我們的增長率為 12%。正如預期的那樣，第四季度這一數字應該會達到較高的個位數。但重要的是，我們看到生產成本通脹以類似的速度下降。因此，當你看看生產和精密農業的價格和成本之間的絕對增量時，我認為上半年我們的盈利約為 14 億美元。下半場應該與此沒有什麼不同。因此，我認為，我們全年都會維持價格/成本紀律。

Now as it pertains to next year, no change in some of the early pricing that we've put out there, which has been in the sort of 2% to 4% range. And we are certainly managing our incentive spend as well embedded in that. So we would expect overall realization to be within that range, inclusive of whatever discounts begin to get layered back into the market for 2024.

現在，就明年而言，我們公佈的一些早期定價沒有變化，一直在 2% 到 4% 的範圍內。我們當然也在管理我們的激勵支出並融入其中。因此，我們預計總體實現將在該範圍內，包括 2024 年開始分層回歸市場的任何折扣。

Our next question is from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自克里斯汀·歐文和奧本海默。

Wanted to ask about the construction margins. You lifted the target once again and really narrowing the gap with your ag businesses that what is arguably a different point in the cycle. Just given some of the comments of normalization in pricing across the portfolio and what you talked about in the prepared remarks for 2024, how we should think about the sustainability of that improved margin performance in the construction segment?

想問一下建設利潤。你們再次提高了目標，並真正縮小了與農業企業的差距，這可以說是周期中的一個不同點。考慮到整個投資組合定價正常化的一些評論以及您在 2024 年準備的講話中談到的內容，我們應該如何考慮建築領域利潤率表現改善的可持續性？

Kristen, as it relates to construction and forestry margins, I would kind of refer back to some of the comments we made in our opening remarks around the structural things that we've been doing in construction and forestry for really the last 4 to 5 years that have really reformed that business into a more sound and solid business that, to your point, has closed some of the gap between large ag over the last couple of years.

克里斯汀，因為它與建築和林業利潤有關，我想回顧一下我們在開場白中圍繞過去 4 到 5 年我們在建築和林業領域所做的結構性工作所做的一些評論這確實將該業務轉變為更加健全和堅實的業務，就您而言，在過去幾年中縮小了與大型企業之間的一些差距。

First and foremost, the most important move we made was the inclusion of a roadbuilding business. That's an end market that we view as high growth, lower volatility and it's a very attractive market to be in. And we acquired the #1 asset in that business via Wirtgen. We're really still early days executing our excavator strategy.

首先也是最重要的，我們採取的最重要舉措是納入道路建設業務。我們認為這是一個高增長、低波動性的終端市場，是一個非常有吸引力的市場。我們通過維特根收購了該業務的第一大資產。我們確實還處於執行挖掘機戰略的早期階段。

The first important step there was the dissolution of the Deere-Hitachi joint venture, which we successfully negotiated last year. And we're on our way to delivering a full line of Deere designed excavators, which I think is really sort of the next phase of the strategy there and how we'll see that business continue to drive further margin performance going forward.

第一個重要的步驟是解散迪爾-日立合資企業，我們去年成功談判了該合資企業。我們正在交付迪爾設計的全系列挖掘機，我認為這實際上是該戰略的下一階段，以及我們將如何看到該業務繼續推動進一步的利潤表現。

And we didn't tout this a lot publicly. But we were very active in portfolio management over the last couple of years, really focusing that portfolio on the products where we're most differentiated and in the markets where we really have a right to play and a right to win. So that's -- we think all of those things are structural and continue on a go-forward basis.

我們並沒有過多公開宣傳這一點。但過去幾年我們在產品組合管理方面非常積極，真正將產品組合集中在我們最具差異化的產品以及我們真正有權參與和獲勝的市場上。所以，我們認為所有這些事情都是結構性的，並且會持續下去。

Yes, Kristen, one thing I'd add is as we look forward and you think about what -- is there another leg in this journey for C&F, and we believe there is, and it's around technology and how do we integrate technology to help do the jobs that our customers do and do them better and more efficiently, more productively and more sustainably.

是的，Kristen，我要補充的一件事是，當我們展望未來時，你會想一想，C&F 的這段旅程是否還有另一條腿，我們相信有，它是圍繞技術以及我們如何整合技術來提供幫助做我們客戶所做的工作，並且做得更好、更高效、更高效、更可持續。

So we're seeing that with our first suite of automation tools, things like grade control. We see more and more opportunities to leverage technology into construction, into roadbuilding, in particular, that are going to create real value for customers. We think we can differentiate in the marketplace. And as we create that value for customers, in turn, get paid as well. So we're excited about the future there. And we see continued opportunities.

因此，我們在第一套自動化工具中看到了這一點，比如坡度控制。我們看到越來越多的機會將技術應用於建築，特別是道路建設，這將為客戶創造真正的價值。我們認為我們可以在市場上脫穎而出。當我們為客戶創造價值時，反過來，我們也會獲得報酬。所以我們對那裡的未來感到興奮。我們看到了持續的機會。

Our next question is from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

And actually, I wanted to follow up on what [Josh] was just talking about, where construction pricing, what you've achieved to date, is that largely market-related? Or do you feel like you've had enough technology flow in to sort of support a rising price overall?

事實上，我想跟進[喬希]剛才所說的，建築定價，你們迄今為止所取得的成就，很大程度上與市場相關嗎？或者您是否覺得已經有足夠的技術流入來支持整體價格上漲？

And maybe as a part of that question, I suppose, definitionally, if you have a tech widget, you charge for that (inaudible) in volume, I think. But I assume there's just an overall price [hit] as well as your products deliver more value to customers. So maybe just talk about where you are in technology and...

也許作為這個問題的一部分，我想，從定義上來說，如果你有一個技術小部件，你會按數量收費（聽不清）。但我認為只是整體價格受到影響，而且您的產品為客戶提供了更多價值。所以也許只是談談你在技術方面的進展......

Yes. Rob, as it relates to -- I'll first start with the comment around pricing and then we can talk about technology more broadly. But as it relates to the pricing that we've achieved, I mean, I think you've seen that broadly in the construction equipment markets. We work hard to lead in price as best we can. We try to be one of the most disciplined industry players as it pertains to price. I think we're still early days in terms of getting higher average selling prices on account of more technology, more innovation in the equipment.

是的。羅布，因為它涉及到——我將首先從有關定價的評論開始，然後我們可以更廣泛地討論技術。但由於它與我們已經實現的定價有關，我的意思是，我認為您已經在建築設備市場上廣泛看到了這一點。我們努力盡最大努力在價格上處於領先地位。我們努力成為價格方面最自律的行業參與者之一。我認為，由於更多的技術和設備的創新，我們在提高平均售價方面還處於早期階段。

So we are starting to see that. I think on specific product lines, we can definitely see that. In terms of the entire portfolio rising, we're still early days there. So I think more headroom for us as we begin to integrate technology. Wirtgen is certainly going to be one of the product lines that benefit the most from a higher average selling price as we include more technology in the coming years.

所以我們開始看到這一點。我認為在具體的產品線上，我們肯定可以看到這一點。就整個投資組合的上漲而言，我們仍處於早期階段。因此，我認為當我們開始整合技術時，我們還有更多的發展空間。隨著我們在未來幾年引入更多技術，維特根無疑將成為從更高的平均售價中獲益最多的產品線之一。

Rob, I'd say timeline-wise, if you think about this journey we went on, on the large ag side in 2013/'14, when we began, I would say we're probably similar to that time frame, so maybe not quite a decade, but I think behind. But we're in those early days of starting to drive more of that technology in.

羅布，我想說的是，從時間安排上來說，如果你想想我們在 2013/14 年開始的大農業方面的旅程，我會說我們可能與那個時間框架相似，所以也許雖然還不到十年，但我認為已經落後了。但我們正處於開始推動更多這項技術的早期階段。

And the excavator is a good example, where we're just getting started as we design that fully integrated machine, where we're going to see -- in our minds, what we're seeing and what we're hearing from customers that are testing, really tremendous technologies and usability. So we're excited about the future there. And we think we're very early days.

挖掘機就是一個很好的例子，我們剛剛開始設計完全集成的機器，我們將在腦海中看到我們所看到的以及我們從客戶那裡聽到的正在測試，確實很棒的技術和可用性。所以我們對那裡的未來感到興奮。我們認為我們還處於早期階段。

Our next question is from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

I wanted to go back. I think a couple of you have used the word robust cost agenda for next year a couple of times. And I'm just wondering if there's any way for us to think about sizing that. Is this like sort of a big deal, where we could see these sort of production costs in your waterfall chart could actually be positive next year? Or is this kind of continuous improvement a better way to think about that?

我想回去。我想你們中的一些人已經多次使用過“明年穩健的成本議程”這個詞。我只是想知道我們是否有辦法考慮調整其規模。這是否是一件大事，我們可以在瀑布圖中看到這些生產成本明年實際上可能是正值？或者這種持續改進是更好的思考方式嗎？

Steve, it's a great question. We've seen over the last couple of years, billions of dollars of cost inflation flow into our operations. Some of that is coming from systemic inflation. A portion of that though is coming from just, I will call it, COVID disruption cost, inefficiency cost, also associated with our deferred ratification of our UAW contract in '22, all of those things, cost overheads to run higher than they normally do. So we're bringing a lot of those back in 2023. I think there's more room to run certainly in 2024. I would not probably characterize it as just a normal continuous improvement program here at Deere because we do have line of sight to specific costs that we want to take out.

史蒂夫，這是一個很好的問題。在過去的幾年裡，我們看到數十億美元的成本通脹流入我們的運營。其中一些來自系統性通脹。不過，其中一部分來自，我稱之為，新冠肺炎破壞成本、低效率成本，也與我們在 22 年推遲批准 UAW 合同有關，所有這些因素，成本管理費用比正常情況下要高。因此，我們將在 2023 年推出很多此類項目。我認為 2024 年肯定會有更多的運行空間。我可能不會將其描述為迪爾的正常持續改進計劃，因為我們確實了解具體成本我們想要取出的。

Particularly, as some commodity prices have come down, it's really easy to capture that in our raw material spend. And we did see a tailwind in raw mats in the third quarter. But for a lot of our purchase components that have those raw materials embedded in their purchase price, there's an opportunity to go back and actively renegotiate. So we're very proactive there on executing the strategy. And we do have a formalized process in place to take further action in 2024.

特別是，隨著一些大宗商品價格的下降，我們很容易在原材料支出中體現這一點。我們確實在第三季度看到了原始墊子的順風車。但對於我們的許多采購組件來說，這些原材料都包含在採購價格中，因此我們有機會回去積極重新談判。因此，我們非常積極主動地執行該戰略。我們確實制定了正式流程，以便在 2024 年採取進一步行動。

Yes. Steve, the only thing I'd add on top of that is just coming through the last 3 years, which have been far from usual operating procedures in terms of pandemic, supply chain disruptions, et cetera, is continuing to root out that disruption cost that had come in and made its way in on top of we were seeing strong demand. So I think there's going to be work done certainly and I think ongoing, getting back to a cadence that we would expect in terms of continuing to take cost out and drive efficiency in the operations. So we're -- we think there's more room to go here for sure.

是的。史蒂夫，除此之外我唯一要補充的是，過去三年在流行病、供應鏈中斷等方面與通常的操作程序相去甚遠，正在繼續根除這種中斷成本它是在我們看到強勁需求的基礎上出現的。因此，我認為肯定會完成一些工作，而且我認為這些工作會持續進行，回到我們期望的節奏，繼續降低成本並提高運營效率。所以我們——我們認為這里肯定還有更多的空間。

Now our next question is from David Raso with Evercore.

現在我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Raso。

The comment earlier about the construction -- the demand backdrop, right, you were saying the 6-month rolling order book extends into the second quarter of '24. Can you give us a sense of that order book? Are your orders up year-over-year? Is that implying growth in construction and forestry through the second quarter? Is that what that comment meant? And any help on the pricing within that order book would be great.

之前關於建設的評論 - 需求背景，對吧，你說 6 個月的滾動訂單簿延伸到 24 年第二季度。您能給我們介紹一下訂單簿嗎？你們的訂單同比增長嗎？這是否意味著第二季度建築業和林業的增長？那個評論是這個意思嗎？任何有關該訂單簿中定價的幫助都會很棒。

And then a quick question on large ag, maybe I'm misreading it. But for the fourth quarter for large ag, I know go back to normal seasonal times, the fourth quarter does have a pretty weak sequential margin. But large ag, you have profit sequentially down almost as much as revenues are implied down. I'm just making sure I understand, are there any unique costs or you mentioned Brazil, negative mix, just something on why the profits would fall almost as much as the revenues are going to fall sequentially?

然後是一個關於大型農業公司的快速問題，也許我誤讀了它。但對於大型農業公司的第四季度，我知道回到正常的季節性時間，第四季度的連續利潤率確實相當弱。但大型企業的利潤連續下降幾乎與隱含收入下降一樣多。我只是確保我理解，是否有任何獨特的成本或您提到的巴西，負面組合，只是為什麼利潤下降幾乎與收入下降一樣多？

Yes. David, let me start with the first -- the last part of that question on the ag side and then I'll let Josh comment on construction and forestry. If you think about the fourth quarter, we'll see revenues flattish to maybe down a little bit in ag. The big driver there -- and then to your point, margins will come in a shade from where they were in the third quarter. The big driver there is we are seeing a return to again this normal seasonality, which does mean that we will institute normal factory shutdowns, particularly at Harvester Works, which historically we've done factory shutdowns in the month of September and/or October.

是的。大衛，讓我從農業方面問題的第一部分開始，然後我將讓喬希評論建築和林業。如果你考慮一下第四季度，我們會看到農業收入持平甚至可能略有下降。其中最大的推動因素——然後就你的觀點而言，利潤率將比第三季度的水平有所下降。最大的推動因素是我們看到這種正常的季節性再次回歸，這確實意味著我們將實行正常的工廠關閉，特別是在 Harvester Works，歷史上我們在 9 月和/或 10 月關閉了工廠。

And so I think what you're going to see is the impact of shutting that down. We haven't done that the last couple of years as we've been running behind on delivering machines to customers in late in '21 and then all the way really through 2022. So that's really the big impact that we're going to see happen in the fourth quarter. I think that the other thing I would note specific to the fourth quarter, and this would actually be true for all three divisions, we'll see a heavier R&D spend in the fourth quarter.

所以我認為你將會看到關閉它的影響。過去幾年我們還沒有這樣做，因為我們在 21 年末向客戶交付機器方面一直落後，一直到 2022 年。所以這確實是我們將看到的巨大影響發生在第四季度。我認為我要特別指出的第四季度的另一件事，實際上對於所有三個部門都是如此，我們將在第四季度看到更大的研發支出。

That's a timing thing. Our fourth quarter does tend to be a little heavy most years from an R&D perspective. That is certainly going to be true this year as well. And then the other thing I would add on the fourth quarter is you'll see a little less Brazil mix as well in the fourth quarter. So kind of all three of those things will conspire together to bring down margins just a shade in the fourth quarter when you compare them to third quarter results.

這是一個時機問題。從研發的角度來看，大多數年份我們的第四季度確實有點沉重。今年肯定也是如此。然後我要在第四季度補充的另一件事是，你會在第四季度看到巴西的混合情況有所減少。因此，當您將第四季度的利潤與第三季度的業績進行比較時，所有這三件事將共同作用，使第四季度的利潤率略有下降。

Yes. As it relates to C&F and if you look at the order book, I mean, I would say, comparing year-over-year is a little bit difficult because we were constrained last year, so probably not a good way to compare just total order activity. But what I would say is on the order book that we have, we're looking at similar production rates, '23 to '24, so not a significant change there and realistically, obviously, less disruption expected as well in '24 than we saw in '23.

是的。因為它與 C&F 相關，如果你查看訂單簿，我的意思是，我想說，逐年比較有點困難，因為我們去年受到限制，所以可能不是比較總訂單的好方法活動。但我要說的是，在我們的訂單簿上，我們正在考慮類似的生產率，'23 到 '24，所以那裡沒有重大變化，實際上，顯然，'24 預計的中斷也比我們預期的要少23年看到的。

Our next question is from Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

So I wanted to step away from the quarterly trend and ask you about your new battery plant. I think you do speak to a new battery manufacturing location. Can you tell us a bit more on that, when it will be operating at run rate, what volume you expect that run rate, what products you expect it to feed in to, any impacts on margins or potential cost savings? So any thoughts on this initiative?

因此，我想拋開季度趨勢，向您詢問一下您的新電池工廠的情況。我認為你確實談到了一個新的電池製造地點。您能否告訴我們更多相關信息，什麼時候將以運行速度運行，您期望運行速度是多少，您希望它用於哪些產品，對利潤或潛在成本節省的任何影響？那麼對這一舉措有什麼想法嗎？

Yes, certainly, Tami. Thanks for the question. So this stems from the acquisition we made a little over a year ago with Kreisel Electric. So this is really the next step as we continue that evolution to build manufacturing capacity for batteries and charging, which was announced here earlier this week in North Carolina.

是的，當然，塔米。謝謝你的提問。這源於我們一年多前對 Kreisel Electric 的收購。因此，這實際上是我們繼續發展電池和充電製造能力的下一步，本週早些時候在北卡羅來納州宣布了這一計劃。

I would say stepping back and looking at this, as we -- this is a strategic investment in growing our production capacity, aimed to being the leader, particularly in off-highway. As off-highway is evolving, we're prioritizing development of robust charging technology in addition to a battery portfolio that can support the long-term adoption of electrification in our products.

我想說的是，退後一步來審視這一點，因為我們這是一項旨在提高產能的戰略投資，旨在成為領導者，特別是在非公路領域。隨著非公路行業的不斷發展，除了能夠支持我們產品中長期採用電氣化的電池產品組合之外，我們還優先開發強大的充電技術。

So timeline, we're probably a year or so out in terms of this facility up and running. We're producing them in Europe today at a relatively small scale. But we see the opportunity with the technology we have to really drive charging here in the near term. And we've developed a relatively robust pipeline or portfolio plan for Deere products that will begin to incorporate the Kreisel batteries here as we go forward, starting probably below 125-horsepower. And then we'll continue to evolve that portfolio as we go forward. And you'll see hybrid technologies and the like.

因此，就時間表而言，我們可能需要一年左右的時間才能啟動並運行該設施。目前我們在歐洲以相對較小的規模生產它們。但我們看到了技術的機會，我們必須在短期內真正推動充電。我們已經為 Deere 產品製定了一個相對穩健的管道或產品組合計劃，隨著我們的發展，這些產品將開始在此處採用 Kreisel 電池，起始功率可能低於 125 馬力。然後我們將繼續發展該產品組合。你會看到混合技術等。

Our next question, from Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自查德·迪拉德和伯恩斯坦。

So I want to spend some time on the average age of the fleet. Can you just talk about where we will be ending the year versus normal? And I recall you're talking about how there are, I guess, five different owners within the fleet. I think where is the bulge in age in terms of the fleet? And then just the last question is if the higher average age structural, why or why not?

所以我想花一些時間來了解機隊的平均年齡。您能談談我們今年的收尾情況與正常情況相比如何嗎？我記得你正在談論艦隊中有五個不同的所有者。我想就機隊而言，年齡的膨脹在哪裡？最後一個問題是，如果平均年齡較高是結構性的，為什麼或為什麼不呢？

As it relates to the average age of the fleet, I think what you're seeing is the impact of this replacement cycle really having a sort of delayed or deferred start, right? If you think about when demand really inflected, it was at the beginning of 2021. And you really had three factors conspiring to slow down the production really for -- not just for Deere but the industry at large, right? We had -- the industry was suffering from labor shortages, supply chain delinquencies, delays as well as significant inflation affecting production.

由於它與機隊的平均年齡有關，我認為您看到的是這個更換週期的影響確實有某種延遲或延遲啟動，對吧？如果你想想需求真正發生變化的時候，那是在 2021 年初。確實有三個因素共同減緩了生產——不僅是迪爾公司，而且是整個行業，對吧？我們發現，該行業正遭受勞動力短缺、供應鏈拖欠、延誤以及影響生產的嚴重通貨膨脹的困擾。

So in the last 3 years, demand has outpaced supply. And what that's done is it has really slowed the ability of the industry to bring down the age of the fleet. If I look at four-wheel drives and 220-plus horsepower tractors, those -- we continue to age out most years since really 2013. We've started to sort of flatten the curve a little bit. I wouldn't say we brought down the age significantly or even at all for either one of those, and we're still probably a couple of years older than historic averages.

因此，在過去的三年裡，需求超過了供應。這樣做的結果確實降低了該行業降低機隊壽命的能力。如果我看一下四輪驅動和 220 馬力以上的拖拉機，自 2013 年以來，這些拖拉機一直在老化。我們已經開始稍微拉平曲線。我不會說我們顯著降低了其中任何一個的年齡，甚至根本沒有降低，而且我們可能仍然比歷史平均年齡大幾歲。

Combines is one where the last -- this last year, we were probably -- the industry was able to make a little bit of progress bringing down the age of that fleet a little bit. We'll make further progress in '24. But we'll still be just above kind of historic averages there. So I think it's going to take a little more time on tractors, just given some of the challenges that we've had, I think particularly for four-wheel drives, which you guys can see this in the AEM data. We just haven't seen -- it's been one of the more constrained product lines from an industry perspective, kind of similar to sprayers, where we're just going to take maybe a little more time to bring down the age of the fleet.

聯合收割機是去年——我們可能是去年——該行業取得了一點進步，稍微降低了機隊的年齡。我們將在 24 年取得進一步的進展。但我們仍將略高於歷史平均水平。因此，我認為考慮到我們遇到的一些挑戰，拖拉機將需要更多的時間，我認為特別是對於四輪驅動，你們可以在 AEM 數據中看到這一點。我們只是還沒有看到——從行業角度來看，它是最受限制的產品線之一，有點類似於噴霧器，我們可能需要多花一點時間來降低機隊的壽命。

If you ask kind of where is the bulge, so to speak, in the age of the fleet, I mean, it's really -- if you go back to the vintages of machines that were kind of 2010 to 2014, that's still a big part of the installed base. And those are the ones that are really aging out on us at a faster rate than the industry has been able to replace it in the last couple of years.

如果你問凸出在哪裡，可以這麼說，在機隊時代，我的意思是，如果你回到 2010 年至 2014 年的機器年份，這仍然是一個很大的部分已安裝的基礎。這些技術確實在我們身上老化，其速度比行業在過去幾年中能夠取代它的速度還要快。

Yes, maybe one thing I'd add just on top of that is I think the important piece, too, is we are continuing to see demand for technology across the trade ladder in our equipment. We were just speaking with a dealer principal a couple of weeks ago. And he was talking about this very fact. It's not just demand for the latest technology by the first owner, but it's the second, third, fourth, the fifth.

是的，也許我要補充的一件事是，我認為同樣重要的一點是，我們繼續看到我們的設備中整個貿易階梯對技術的需求。幾週前我們剛剛與一位經銷商負責人交談。他正在談論這個事實。這不僅僅是第一個擁有者對最新技術的需求，還有第二個、第三個、第四個、第五個擁有者對最新技術的需求。

And I think when we think about the age of the fleet and the health of those -- the trade ladder, that is a big, big driver because there's a desire to upgrade technology no matter where the customer may be in that chain. So I think that's an important piece that underlies not only age but the demand.

我認為，當我們考慮船隊的年齡和它們的健康狀況時——貿易階梯，這是一個很大的驅動因素，因為無論客戶位於該鏈條的哪個位置，都希望升級技術。所以我認為這是一個重要的部分，不僅是年齡的基礎，也是需求的基礎。

So our last question now is from Seth Weber with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們現在的最後一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的賽斯·韋伯 (Seth Weber)。

I guess, I wanted to ask about the small ag business. Margin was a lot better than what we were expecting. I think I heard you say something about Europe. I'm just wondering, is that -- are those structural changes that we should think about as being in place going forward? And then just your comment about small ag inventory kind of coming off the peak, do you think that we're past the challenges there and things are going to start getting better or just less bad going forward?

我想，我想問一下小型農業業務。利潤率比我們預期的要好很多。我想我聽到你說了一些關於歐洲的事情。我只是想知道，我們應該考慮這些結構性變化是否會繼續推進？然後，您對小型農業庫存已脫離峰值的評論，您是否認為我們已經克服了那裡的挑戰，並且未來情況會開始變得更好，或者只是不那麼糟糕？

Seth, thanks for the question. As it relates to small ag and turf, it's certainly a structurally sounder business today than we went back to prior cycles. As you think about -- and I'll talk a little bit more about some of the margin puts and takes there. Let me answer your question on inventory first. So as it relates to inventory for small ag and turf, I know there's been a lot of focus on what I would call the small end of small ag and turf, so like the under 40-horsepower category of compact utility tractors.

賽斯，謝謝你的提問。由於它與小型農業和草坪相關，因此今天的業務結構肯定比我們回到之前的周期更加健全。正如您所想，我將更多地討論一些保證金賣出和賣出的情況。我先回答你關於庫存的問題。因此，由於它涉及小型農業和草坪的庫存，我知道人們對我所說的小型農業和草坪的小端有很多關注，就像 40 馬力以下的緊湊型通用拖拉機一樣。

I think we've seen the industry level out, even come down a little bit here recently. So it does appear that maybe we're kind of past that elevated -- or we're in the early stages of getting past those elevated inventory levels on the compact utility tractor side. But the bulk of that business really revolves around mid-sized tractors that are going into dairy and livestock operations, hay and forage operations or high-value crops.

我認為我們已經看到該行業趨於平穩，甚至最近有所下降。因此，看來我們可能已經過去了這種高庫存水平，或者我們正處於克服緊湊型公用拖拉機方面高庫存水平的早期階段。但該業務的大部分實際上圍繞著中型拖拉機，這些拖拉機用於乳製品和牲畜作業、乾草和飼料作業或高價值作物。

And I think we're probably closer to target level inventory there. So we don't see quite the abundance of inventory for those categories of machines. And so we're also going to see just some seasonality impact just as it relates to the rest of the year from a margin perspective. We'll do a factory shutdown in Monheim, which is our single-source location for those 6 Series tractors, those mid-series tractors that makes up a significant portion of the small ag and turf revenue and margin for that matter.

我認為我們可能更接近目標庫存水平。因此，我們沒有看到這些類別的機器的庫存非常豐富。因此，我們還將看到一些季節性影響，就像從利潤率角度來看它與今年剩餘時間的影響一樣。我們將關閉蒙海姆的工廠，這是我們 6 系列拖拉機的單一來源地點，這些中型系列拖拉機佔小型農業和草坪收入和利潤的很大一部分。

Going forward though from a margin perspective, I think what you'll see, particularly on those mid-sized tractors is higher levels of technology that is going to be leveraged from production and precision ag. I would say if you went back to prior years, you wouldn't see a lot of technology that gets leveraged from production and precision ag into small ag and turf.

但從利潤的角度來看，我認為你會看到，特別是在那些中型拖拉機上，生產和精密農業將利用更高水平的技術。我想說，如果你回到前幾年，你不會看到很多從生產和精密農業到小型農業和草坪的技術。

But you're going to see more of that as our customers, particularly in like high-value crop production systems, they're demanding solutions like economy and electrification. And so that's going to be an opportunity to, I think, further buttress the margin profile that we've achieved this year and extend that into years to come.

但作為我們的客戶，您會看到更多這樣的情況，特別是在高價值作物生產系統中，他們需要經濟和電氣化等解決方案。因此，我認為，這將是一個機會，可以進一步鞏固我們今年實現的利潤率，並將其延續到未來幾年。

Yes. Seth, one last thing I would add is just the deep geographic diversity of small ag and turf. So it's much broader in terms of global coverage. And we're seeing performance really strong across the globe. And to Brent's point on driving technology, we're seeing technology be driven into utility tractors in India, leveraging telematics and bringing connectivity to the farm there. So there's a lot of activity that we see that is going to both create customer value and also drive a different business in small ag and turf than you've seen in the past.

是的。塞斯，我要補充的最後一件事是小型農業和地盤的深刻地理多樣性。因此，就全球覆蓋範圍而言，它的範圍要廣泛得多。我們看到全球範圍內的表現非常強勁。對於布倫特關於驅動技術的觀點，我們看到技術被引入印度的公用拖拉機中，利用遠程信息處理並為那裡的農場帶來連接。因此，我們看到有很多活動既能創造客戶價值，又能推動小型農業和領域的業務與過去不同。

That concludes today's call. We appreciate everyone's time, and thank you for joining us today.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家抽出寶貴的時間，感謝您今天加入我們。

This conference has concluded. Again, thank you for your participation. You may please disconnect at this time.

本次會議圓滿結束。再次感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連接。