強鹿 (DE) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Deere & Company's Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎來到迪爾公司的第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Brent Norwood, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係總監布倫特諾伍德先生。謝謝你。你可以開始了。

Hello. Also on the call today are John May, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Josh Jepsen, Chief Financial Officer; and Rachel Bach, Manager of Investor Communications.

你好。今天出席電話會議的還有董事長兼首席執行官 John May；首席財務官 Josh Jepsen；和投資者溝通經理 Rachel Bach。

Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's fourth quarter earnings. Then spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal year 2023. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.

今天，我們將仔細研究一下 Deere 的第四季度收益。然後花一些時間談論我們的市場和我們目前對 2023 財年的展望。之後，我們將回答您的問題。請注意，幻燈片可用於補充今天上午的電話會議。可以在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 上訪問它們。

First, a reminder. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

首先，提醒一下。該電話正在互聯網上進行現場直播並進行錄音，以供迪爾公司將來傳輸和使用。未經 Deere 明確書面同意，嚴禁以任何其他方式使用、錄製或傳輸此受版權保護的廣播的任何部分。電話會議的參與者，包括問答環節，同意他們在所有媒體中的肖像和評論可能會被存儲並用作財報電話會議的一部分。

This call includes forward-looking comments concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K and periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings and Events.

此電話會議包括有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性評論，這些評論和預測受到重大風險和不確定性的影響。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的其他信息包含在公司最近的 8-K 表格和向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中。此調用還可能包括不符合美利堅合眾國公認會計原則 GAAP 的財務措施。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比較的 GAAP 措施的調節，包含在新聞稿中，並發佈在我們網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的“季度收益和事件”下。

I will now turn the call over to Rachel Bach.

我現在將把電話轉給雷切爾巴赫。

Good morning. John Deere finished the year with strong fourth quarter, thanks to a 40% increase in net sales. Financial results for the quarter included an 18.5% margin for the equipment operations.

早上好。由於淨銷售額增長了 40%，約翰迪爾以強勁的第四季度結束了這一年。本季度的財務業績包括設備業務 18.5% 的利潤率。

Across our businesses, performance was driven by continued strong demand, higher production rates and progress on reducing our inventory of partially completed machines. Looking ahead, ag fundamentals remain positive, continuing to drive healthy demand as evidenced by our order books full into the third quarter of fiscal year 2023.

在我們的業務中，業績是由持續強勁的需求、更高的生產率和減少我們的部分完成機器庫存的進展推動的。展望未來，農業基本面仍然積極，繼續推動健康的需求，我們的訂單已滿 2023 財年第三季度就證明了這一點。

The construction and forestry markets also continued to benefit from solid demand contributing to the division's notable performance in the quarter. Similarly, order books are extended into the second half of '23, providing visibility and confidence in the new fiscal year.

建築和林業市場也繼續受益於穩固的需求，促成了該部門在本季度的顯著表現。同樣，訂單簿延長至 23 年下半年，為新財政年度提供可見性和信心。

Slide 3 shows the results for fiscal year 2022. Net sales and revenues were up 19% to $52.6 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were up 21% to $47.9 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $7.1 billion or $23.28 per diluted share.

幻燈片 3 顯示了 2022 財年的結果。淨銷售額和收入增長 19% 至 526 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額增長 21% 至 479 億美元。歸屬於迪爾公司的淨收入為 71 億美元或每股攤薄收益 23.28 美元。

Next, fourth quarter results are on Slide 4. Net sales and revenues were up 37% to $15.5 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were up 40% to $14.4 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $2.2 billion or $7.44 per diluted share.

接下來，幻燈片 4 顯示第四季度業績。淨銷售額和收入增長 37% 至 155 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額增長 40% 至 144 億美元。歸屬於迪爾公司的淨收入為 22 億美元或每股攤薄收益 7.44 美元。

Let's take a closer look at fourth quarter results by segment, beginning with our production and precision ag business on Slide 5. Net sales of $7.434 billion, were up markedly at 59% compared to the fourth quarter last year. This was primarily due to higher production rates both year-over-year and sequentially.

讓我們按部門仔細查看第四季度業績，從幻燈片 5 上的生產和精密農業業務開始。淨銷售額為 74.34 億美元，與去年第四季度相比顯著增長 59%。這主要是由於同比和環比的生產率提高。

Additionally, we made progress on clearing partially completed machines from inventory. Both contributed to higher shipment volumes for the quarter. Price realization in the quarter was positive by about 19 points, whereas currency translation was negative by about 3 points. Operating profit was $1.74 billion, resulting in a 23.4% operating margin for the segment. The year-over-year increase in operating profit was primarily due to higher shipment volumes and price realization, partially offset by higher production costs and higher SA&G and R&D spend.

此外，我們在從庫存中清理部分完成的機器方面取得了進展。兩者都為本季度的出貨量增加做出了貢獻。本季度的價格實現為正約 19 個百分點，而貨幣換算為負約 3 個百分點。營業利潤為 17.4 億美元，該部門的營業利潤率為 23.4%。營業利潤的同比增長主要是由於較高的出貨量和價格實現，部分被較高的生產成本以及較高的 SA&G 和研發支出所抵消。

Operating profit for the quarter was negatively impacted by higher reserves on the remaining assets in Russia, affecting the quarter's margin by about 1 point. The production costs were mostly elevated material and freight. Overhead spend was also higher for the period as factories continue to experience some production inefficiencies due to supply challenges and clearing of partially completed machines in inventory.

該季度的營業利潤受到俄羅斯剩餘資產儲備增加的負面影響，影響了該季度的利潤率約 1 個百分點。生產成本主要是高昂的材料和運費。由於供應挑戰和清理庫存中部分完成的機器，工廠繼續經歷一些生產效率低下，因此該期間的間接費用也較高。

Despite these headwinds, our factories were able to maintain higher rates of production and reduce the number of partially completed machines in inventory, allowing us to deliver more equipment to our dealers and customers.

儘管存在這些不利因素，我們的工廠仍能夠保持較高的生產率並減少庫存中部分完成的機器數量，從而使我們能夠向經銷商和客戶交付更多設備。

Moving to Small Ag & Turf on Slide 6. Net sales were up 26%, totaling $3.544 billion in the fourth quarter due to higher shipment volumes and price realization, which more than offset negative currency translation.

轉到幻燈片 6 上的 Small Ag & Turf。第四季度淨銷售額增長 26%，總計 35.44 億美元，原因是出貨量和價格實現增加，這大大抵消了不利的貨幣換算。

Price realization in the quarter was positive by nearly 13 points, while currency translation was negative by over 6 points. For the quarter, operating profit was higher year-over-year at $506 million, resulting in a 14.3% operating margin. The increased profit was primarily due to price realization and improved shipment volumes and mix. These were partially offset by higher production costs, higher R&D and SA&G expenses and unfavorable currency impacts.

本季度的價格實現為正值近 13 個百分點，而貨幣換算為負值超過 6 個百分點。本季度營業利潤同比增長 5.06 億美元，營業利潤率為 14.3%。利潤增加主要是由於價格實現以及出貨量和組合的改善。這些部分被更高的生產成本、更高的研發和 SA&G 費用以及不利的貨幣影響所抵消。

Please turn to Slide 7 for the fiscal year 2023 ag and turf industry outlook. We expect large ag equipment industry sales in U.S. and Canada to be up 5% to 10%, reflecting resilient demand that continues to be higher than the industry's ability to supply, bolstered by the need to replace aging fleets. Our order books now extend into the third quarter and the dealers remain on allocation for '23. For small ag and turf, industry demand is estimated to be flat to down 5%.

請轉到幻燈片 7 了解 2023 財年農業和草坪行業展望。我們預計美國和加拿大的大型農業設備行業銷售額將增長 5% 至 10%，反映出在更換老化車隊的需求的推動下，彈性需求繼續高於該行業的供應能力。我們的訂單現在延伸到第三季度，經銷商仍保留 23 年的分配。對於小型農業和草坪，行業需求估計持平至下降 5%。

The Dairy and Livestock segment remained steady. However, demand for products more correlated to the general economy, such as compact utility tractors and turf equipment is softening.

乳製品和畜牧業部門保持穩定。然而，對與整體經濟更相關的產品的需求正在減弱，例如緊湊型多用途拖拉機和草坪設備。

Shifting to Europe. The industry is forecast to be flat to up 5%. Farm fundamentals in the region are generally stable since small grain prices continue to outpace input inflation. Meanwhile, supply constraints in 2022 are extending the equipment replacement into 2023.

轉移到歐洲。該行業預計將持平至增長 5%。該地區的農業基本面總體穩定，因為小糧價格繼續超過投入通脹。同時，2022 年的供應限制將設備更換延長至 2023 年。

In South America, we expect industry sales of tractors and combines to be flat to up 5%, moderated by supply chain constraints. The region remains one of the stronger end markets, especially in Brazil, where they are forecasting record production and strong profitability for the year. Industry sales in Asia are projected to be down moderately as India, the world's largest tractor market by unit stabilizes after record highs in 2021.

在南美洲，我們預計拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷售額將持平至 5%，受供應鏈限制影響。該地區仍然是最強勁的終端市場之一，尤其是在巴西，他們預測該地區今年的產量和盈利能力將創下歷史新高。隨著印度這個全球最大的拖拉機市場在 2021 年創下歷史新高後趨於穩定，預計亞洲的行業銷售額將溫和下降。

Turning now to our segment forecast on Slide 8. We anticipate production and precision ag net sales to be up between 15% and 20% in fiscal year '23. The forecast assumes approximately 11 points of positive price realization and 1 point of negative currency translation. For the segment's operating margin, our full year forecast is between 22% and 23%.

現在轉向我們對幻燈片 8 的細分市場預測。我們預計 23 財年的產量和精密 ag 淨銷售額將增長 15% 至 20%。該預測假設大約 11 個點的正價格實現和 1 個點的負貨幣換算。對於該部門的營業利潤率，我們的全年預測在 22% 至 23% 之間。

Slide 9 shows our forecast for the Small Ag & Turf segment. We expect fiscal year '23 net sales to be flat to up 5%. This guidance includes about 7 points of positive price realization, partially offset by 2 points of unfavorable currency impact. After accounting for the effects of price and FX, the guide implies a slight volume decrease due to softening in certain product segments. The segment's operating margin is projected to be between 14.5% and 15.5%.

幻燈片 9 顯示了我們對 Small Ag & Turf 細分市場的預測。我們預計 23 財年的淨銷售額將持平至增長 5%。該指南包括大約 7 個積極的價格實現點，部分被 2 個不利的貨幣影響所抵消。在考慮了價格和外彙的影響後，該指南暗示由於某些產品領域的疲軟，銷量略有下降。該部門的營業利潤率預計在 14.5% 至 15.5% 之間。

Changing to Construction & Forestry on Slide 10, price realization and higher shipment volumes both contributed to a 20% increase in net sales for the quarter to $3.373 billion. Price realization in the quarter was positive by nearly 13 points. This was partially offset by almost 5 points of negative currency translation.

轉到幻燈片 10 上的建築與林業、價格實現和更高的出貨量都促使本季度淨銷售額增長 20% 至 33.73 億美元。本季度的價格實現為正值近 13 個百分點。這被近 5 個負貨幣換算點部分抵消。

Operating profit increased to $414 million, resulting in a 12% operating margin. Favorable price realization and higher shipment volumes more than offset higher production costs during the quarter. Segment quarterly results were also negatively impacted by 1.5 points of margin due to higher reserves on the remaining assets in Russia.

營業利潤增至 4.14 億美元，營業利潤率為 12%。有利的價格實現和更高的出貨量抵消了本季度更高的生產成本。由於俄羅斯剩餘資產的儲備金增加，該部門的季度業績也受到 1.5 個百分點利潤率的負面影響。

Now I'll cover our 2023 Construction & Forestry industry outlook on Slide 11. Industry sales of both earthmoving and compact construction equipment in North America are expected to be flat to up 5%. End markets overall are expected to remain steady as oil and gas, U.S. infrastructure spend and CapEx programs from the independent rental companies offset moderation in the residential sector.

現在，我將在幻燈片 11 中介紹 2023 年建築和林業行業展望。北美土方和緊湊型建築設備的行業銷售額預計將持平至增長 5%。由於石油和天然氣、美國基礎設施支出和獨立租賃公司的資本支出計劃抵消了住宅領域的放緩，終端市場整體預計將保持穩定。

Global forestry markets are expected to be flat as stronger European demand continues to be limited by the industry's ability to produce and demand in North America begins to subdue. Global roadbuilding building markets are also expected to be flat. Demand remains strongest in the Americas, while Europe is softening and Asia remains sluggish.

全球林業市場預計將持平，因為強勁的歐洲需求繼續受到該行業生產能力的限制，而北美的需求開始減弱。預計全球道路建設市場也將持平。美洲的需求依然強勁，而歐洲正在走軟，亞洲依然低迷。

Our C&F segment outlook is on Slide 12. 2023 net sales are forecasted to be up around 10%. Our net sales guidance for the year includes about 8 points of positive price realization and just over 1 point of negative currency translation. The segment's operating margin is projected to be 15.5% to 16.5%. Note, fiscal year '22 operating margin would have been 14.5%, excluding special items, such as the onetime gain from the remeasurement of the Deere-Hitachi assets.

我們的 C&F 部門展望在幻燈片 12 上。預計 2023 年淨銷售額將增長 10% 左右。我們今年的淨銷售額指導包括約 8 個正價格實現點和略高於 1 個負貨幣換算點。該部門的營業利潤率預計為 15.5% 至 16.5%。請注意，22 財年營業利潤率為 14.5%，不包括特殊項目，例如重新衡量迪爾-日立資產的一次性收益。

Let's transition to our financial services operations on Slide 13. Worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere & Company was slightly higher in the fourth quarter year-over-year, mainly due to income earned on a higher average portfolio, partially offset by less favorable financing spreads. The provision for credit loss increased, reflecting economic uncertainty in Russia.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 13 的金融服務業務。第四季度歸屬於迪爾公司的全球金融服務淨收入同比略高，這主要是由於平均投資組合收入較高，部分被不利因素所抵消融資利差。信用損失準備增加，反映了俄羅斯經濟的不確定性。

Financial Services received at intercompany benefits from the equipment operations, which guarantees investments in certain international markets, including Russia.

公司間收到的金融服務受益於設備運營，這保證了在某些國際市場（包括俄羅斯）的投資。

For fiscal year 2023, the net income forecast is $900 million. Results are expected to be slightly higher year-over-year primarily due to income earned on a higher average portfolio. The portfolio has continued to grow in line with growth in the equipment operations. Overall, Financial Services is expected to continue to deliver steady results. Credit loss provisions, lease return rates and past dues all remain in good shape, reflecting sound balance sheets for our customers.

2023 財年的淨收入預測為 9 億美元。預計業績將同比略高，這主要是由於較高的平均投資組合所賺取的收入。隨著設備業務的增長，該產品組合繼續增長。總體而言，金融服務業有望繼續取得穩定的業績。信用損失撥備、租賃回報率和逾期未付金額均保持良好狀態，反映出我們客戶的資產負債表狀況良好。

Slide 14 outlines our guidance for net income, our effective tax rate and operating cash flow. For fiscal year '23, our full year net income forecast is a range of $8 billion to $8.5 billion. We expect favorable price realization and higher volumes to more than offset increased spend. Next, our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate between 23% and 25%. And lastly, cash flow from equipment operations is projected to be between $9 billion and $9.5 billion.

幻燈片 14 概述了我們對淨收入、有效稅率和經營現金流的指導。對於 23 財年，我們的全年淨收入預測為 80 億至 85 億美元。我們預計有利的價格實現和更高的銷量將抵消增加的支出。接下來，我們的指導包含 23% 至 25% 之間的有效稅率。最後，來自設備運營的現金流預計在 90 億至 95 億美元之間。

Before we transition to Q&A, John, I'd like to thank you for joining us today. Do you have anything you'd like to add?

在我們過渡到問答之前，約翰，我要感謝你今天加入我們。你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Rachel. First, I want to recognize all of our dedicated employees, dealers and suppliers. Fiscal year 2022 was another unprecedented year in several ways. We started the year in a work stoppage at some of our largest U.S. factories, but we resolved that with a groundbreaking industry-leading new contract, then supply and logistics hurdles created disruption and constrained our production worldwide. At times, deliveries were delayed as demand simply outstripped what the industry could supply.

是的。謝謝，雷切爾。首先，我要感謝我們所有敬業的員工、經銷商和供應商。 2022 財年在多個方面又是前所未有的一年。今年年初，我們在美國的一些最大工廠停工，但我們通過開創性的行業領先新合同解決了這個問題，然後供應和物流障礙造成了中斷並限制了我們在全球的生產。有時，由於需求超出了行業的供應能力，交貨會延遲。

Our operations folks worked tirelessly to get equipment shipped to our dealers and customers. The team overcame disruptions from part shortages and delays to the clearing of partially completed machines to meet our customers' needs.

我們的運營人員不知疲倦地工作，將設備運送給我們的經銷商和客戶。該團隊克服了零件短缺和延遲清理部分完成的機器以滿足客戶需求的中斷。

In the last half of the year, and particularly here in the fourth quarter, we executed to our plans, saw a substantial lift in production and outpaced the industry production and retail sales. This resulted in our highest revenue and margin quarter for the year. It proves what we've known all along, that we've got the best factory teams in the industry, and I'm extremely proud of their efforts and resilience.

在今年下半年，特別是在第四季度，我們按照計劃執行，生產大幅增長，超過了行業生產和零售額。這導致了我們今年最高的收入和利潤率季度。這證明了我們一直以來所知道的，我們擁有業內最好的工廠團隊，我為他們的努力和韌性感到非常自豪。

As I look ahead to fiscal year 2023 and beyond, I truly believe our best years are still ahead of us. In the near term, order books across our businesses are full into the third quarter. And it's important to note that not only do the order books continue to fill when we open them, but the velocity of orders has remained strong. We opened North American combine EOP back in August.

展望 2023 財年及以後，我堅信我們最好的歲月還在前方。短期內，我們業務的訂單將在第三季度滿載。重要的是要注意，當我們打開訂單簿時，不僅訂單簿會繼續填寫，而且訂單的速度仍然很強勁。我們在 8 月份開設了北美聯合收割機 EOP。

Like our crop care EOP, it was on an allocations, but it filled in 2 months. That's noteworthy because we normally have the EOP open for 5 to 6 months. And since our order books are still on allocation for retail sales, we have yet to begin replenishing dealer inventory. And as we continue to make progress on our smart industrial strategy and Leap Ambitions, I'm even more confident in our ability to unlock immense value for our customers.

就像我們的作物護理 EOP 一樣，它在分配中，但在 2 個月內就完成了。這是值得注意的，因為我們通常將 EOP 開放 5 到 6 個月。由於我們的訂單簿仍在分配給零售銷售，因此我們尚未開始補充經銷商庫存。隨著我們在智能工業戰略和 Leap Ambitions 方面繼續取得進展，我對我們為客戶釋放巨大價值的能力更有信心。

When you integrate the industry's best equipment with cutting-edge technology and a world-class dealer channel, it's powerful and it's exciting. We already have solutions in fields and on work sites, and we are bringing more solutions to the market that will make our customers a lot more productive, a lot more profitable and help them do the jobs they do in a much more environmentally sustainable way.

當您將行業最好的設備與尖端技術和世界一流的經銷商渠道相結合時，它既強大又令人興奮。我們已經在田間和工作場所提供了解決方案，並且我們正在向市場推出更多解決方案，這些解決方案將使我們的客戶生產力更高、利潤更高，並幫助他們以更加環保的可持續方式開展工作。

Great. Thanks, John. Now we know there are some -- likely some common topics of interest, so let's dig into those before opening the line for Q&A. First, I'd like to take some time to look more closely at the macro environment and some of the fundamentals for each of our segments.

偉大的。謝謝，約翰。現在我們知道有一些 - 可能是一些共同感興趣的話題，所以讓我們在開始問答之前深入研究這些話題。首先，我想花點時間更仔細地研究宏觀環境和我們每個細分市場的一些基本面。

Let's start with production in precision ag. We're forecasting the industry to be up 5% to 10%. Brent, there's a lot going on there in terms of what is driving that growth. Can you unpack a little for us?

讓我們從精密股份公司的生產開始。我們預測該行業將增長 5% 至 10%。布倫特，就推動這種增長的因素而言，有很多事情要做。你能幫我們打開一下行李嗎？

Sure. There's a few things going on, I'd like to point out, Rachel. Stocks-to-use ratios for key grains still remain very, very low, while exports from the Black Sea region are expected to be down about 40%. So it's going to take a couple of growing seasons to ease the tight supply and this should help support commodity prices in the interim. While crop prices may have come down a little bit since the summer, they remain at levels where our customers still have healthy profits despite some of the higher input costs they're facing.

當然。雷切爾，我想指出一些事情正在發生。主要穀物的庫存消費比仍然非常非常低，而黑海地區的出口預計將下降約 40%。因此，需要幾個生長季節才能緩解供應緊張，這應該有助於在此期間支撐大宗商品價格。儘管農作物價格自夏季以來可能略有下降，但仍保持在我們的客戶仍可獲得可觀利潤的水平，儘管他們面臨著一些更高的投入成本。

Finally, the industry has not been able to meet demand due to supply chain constraints and demand continues to outpace supply. And we see that in how quickly our order books fill up and historically low dealer inventory of both new and used equipment. It's also evident in the fleet age, which is well above average.

最後，由於供應鏈限制，該行業一直無法滿足需求，需求繼續超過供應。我們看到，我們的訂單簿填滿的速度有多快，新舊設備的經銷商庫存都處於歷史低位。這在機隊年齡中也很明顯，遠高於平均水平。

All right. So fundamentals remain solid, but weather, geopolitical tensions and broader economic conditions may be weighing on our customers' minds.

好的。因此，基本面仍然穩固，但天氣、地緣政治緊張局勢和更廣泛的經濟狀況可能會影響我們客戶的想法。

Yes, that's absolutely true, Rachel, and we recognize that. But our order books really serve as the best indicator though. Not only are they extending into the third quarter of 2023, but the velocity in which they feel remains really encouraging for us.

是的，這絕對是真的，雷切爾，我們承認這一點。但我們的訂單確實是最好的指標。它們不僅會延續到 2023 年第三季度，而且它們所感受到的速度對我們來說仍然非常令人鼓舞。

Recall that our order books are still on an allocation basis. So when those orders ship, they generally retail right away and almost all of those machines have a customer's name on them when they go down the production line.

回想一下，我們的訂單簿仍然是基於分配的。因此，當這些訂單發貨時，它們通常會立即零售，而且幾乎所有這些機器在生產線下線時都會在上面貼上客戶的名字。

Remember that our dealer inventories still need to be replenished. Four-wheel drive inventory to sales ratios are at 10%, while 220-plus horsepower tractors are at 12%. And those numbers might even be a little bit overstated because our dealers are working through all of those fourth quarter shipments right now, and they're still delivering them to customers. Also of note, our guidance does assume that we build to retail demand. So any dealer inventory replenishment will likely be pushed to 2024.

請記住，我們的經銷商庫存仍需要補充。四輪驅動的庫存銷售率為 10%，而 220 馬力以上的拖拉機為 12%。這些數字甚至可能有點誇大，因為我們的經銷商現在正在處理所有這些第四季度的出貨量，並且他們仍在將它們交付給客戶。同樣值得注意的是，我們的指南確實假設我們是根據零售需求建造的。因此，任何經銷商庫存補貨都可能會被推遲到 2024 年。

Additionally, I would like to point out that the 2023 North America large ag volumes will be 20% to 25% lower than the 5-year average volume from the 2010 to 2014 replacement cycle. This is clear if you look at the AEM data. Our revenues are higher because we've increased our value per machine for our customers through precision ag solutions. But volumes are still rather modest when compared to the entire replacement period of that 5 years of 2010 to 2014.

此外，我想指出，2023 年北美大型 ag 銷量將比 2010 年至 2014 年更換週期的 5 年平均銷量低 20% 至 25%。如果您查看 AEM 數據，這一點就很清楚了。我們的收入更高，因為我們通過精密 ag 解決方案為客戶增加了每台機器的價值。但與 2010 年至 2014 年這 5 年的整個更換期相比，數量仍然相當有限。

Yes, Brent, I have a few things to add here. This last year, I've been out meeting with dealers on a regular basis. And I often hear them telling me that they're not able to quote every customer who wants to place an order because we're still constrained by the supply base and on an allocation basis. So clearly, more demand -- there's more demand for our equipment. And this replacement cycle will have an extended duration. I am confident we will produce more large ag equipment in 2023 than we did in 2022. And not just more equipment, but more value per machine. Our production system approach has us laser-focused on the customer and unlocking more value for them. This will increase the value per machine even more.

是的，布倫特，我有幾件事要補充。去年，我定期與經銷商會面。我經常聽到他們告訴我，他們無法為每個想要下訂單的客戶報價，因為我們仍然受到供應基礎和分配基礎的限制。很明顯，更多的需求——對我們的設備有更多的需求。而且這個更換週期會延長。我相信我們將在 2023 年生產比 2022 年更多的大型農業設備。不僅設備更多，而且每台機器的價值更高。我們的生產系統方法讓我們專注於客戶並為他們釋放更多價值。這將進一步增加每台機器的價值。

All right. Let's move on now to small ag and turf. This division has the most diverse end markets of any of our segments. Josh, can you elaborate more on how we're viewing those different markets?

好的。現在讓我們繼續討論小農戶和地盤。該部門擁有我們所有部門中最多樣化的終端市場。喬希，你能詳細說明我們如何看待這些不同的市場嗎？

Sure. There are definitely different macro drivers when you break down the segment a bit further. If we begin with small ag, supply of meat and dairy products has remained tight, which has helped prices remain elevated. And as a result, livestock and dairy margins remain above historical averages. Additionally, dealer inventory to sales ratios for midsized tractors are below levels -- below normal levels as demand has continued to outstrip supply. So this part of SAT has remained stable and resilient. A good proof point here is that the order book for our midsized tractors built in Monheim, Germany is about 70% full, taking us well into the third quarter of fiscal '23.

當然。當您進一步細分細分市場時，肯定會有不同的宏觀驅動因素。如果我們從小型農業開始，肉類和奶製品的供應仍然緊張，這有助於價格保持高位。因此，牲畜和奶製品的利潤率仍高於歷史平均水平。此外，中型拖拉機的經銷商庫存與銷售比率低於正常水平，因為需求繼續超過供應。所以這部分SAT一直保持穩定和彈性。這裡的一個很好的證明是，我們在德國蒙海姆製造的中型拖拉機的訂單已滿 70%，這使我們進入了 23 財年的第三季度。

On the other hand, turf and utility equipment as well as compact utility tractors are more closely correlated to the general economy and somewhat specifically to housing. So we've seen some softening there. Channel inventory remains low, especially for turf, buffering our shipments to some extent. But we're monitoring inventory closely so that we can react if demand pulls back more. We don't intend to let inventory climb to prepandemic levels here.

另一方面，草坪和公用設施設備以及緊湊型公用拖拉機與總體經濟的相關性更為密切，在某種程度上與住房相關。所以我們看到那裡有所軟化。渠道庫存仍然很低，尤其是草皮，在一定程度上緩衝了我們的出貨量。但我們正在密切監控庫存，以便在需求進一步回落時做出反應。我們不打算讓庫存攀升到大流行前的水平。

All right. That's helpful. Thanks, Josh. Let's shift now to C&F. The last few years of demand were largely driven by housing. So how is that segment responding to higher interest rates and lower housing starts. Brent, can you talk through that?

好的。這很有幫助。謝謝，喬希。現在讓我們轉到 C&F。過去幾年的需求主要是由住房驅動的。那麼該細分市場如何應對更高的利率和更低的房屋開工率。布倫特，你能談談嗎？

You bet, Rachel. So on one hand, we have seen some softening in housing while nonres building projects have continued to decline a little bit. On the other hand, oil and gas CapEx has been very steady with rig counts projected to be up next year. And U.S. infrastructure is beginning to show some promise going into 2023, which is especially important for (inaudible). In addition to that, both dealer-owned rental channel and the independent players have significant refleeting programs going into 2023. So all in all, we're seeing a shift in the composition of demand drivers for that business, less housing, but more than offset by rental infrastructure and oil and gas.

你打賭，雷切爾。因此，一方面，我們看到住房市場有所走軟，而非資源建築項目繼續略有下降。另一方面，石油和天然氣資本支出一直非常穩定，預計明年鑽機數量將增加。美國的基礎設施開始顯示出進入 2023 年的一些希望，這對（聽不清）尤為重要。除此之外，經銷商擁有的租賃渠道和獨立參與者在 2023 年都有重要的反映計劃。所以總而言之，我們看到該業務的需求驅動因素的構成發生了變化，住房減少，但超過被租賃基礎設施和石油和天然氣所抵消。

Brent, I'd like to add that C&F dealer inventory, as with other parts of our business is historically low and needs to be replenished but we're currently focusing on retail demand and our order books are close to 70% full.

布倫特，我想補充一點，C&F 經銷商的庫存與我們業務的其他部分一樣處於歷史低位，需要補充，但我們目前專注於零售需求，我們的訂單已接近 70%。

All good insight into the various industries and market dynamics, and it's all factored into our net sales guidance for the full year. To recap, common themes across our businesses, our order books are strong, but still on allocation. We're focused on meeting pent-up retail demand, and we still need to replenish channel inventory possibly late 2023, but more likely into 2024. Brent, can you talk about what all this means for our '23 production schedule?

所有對各個行業和市場動態的深刻洞察，都被納入我們全年的淨銷售額指導中。回顧一下，我們業務的共同主題，我們的訂單簿很強勁，但仍在分配中。我們專注於滿足被壓抑的零售需求，我們可能仍需要在 2023 年末補充渠道庫存，但更有可能到 2024 年。布倫特，你能談談這對我們的 23 生產計劃意味著什麼嗎？

Sure. So this past year, we did not have our normal seasonality. And we had the work stoppage at the beginning of the first quarter, and we had experienced the worst of the supply chain issues as we tried to ramp up more during the second quarter. So we played catch up later in the year, resulting in a significantly more back half-weighted 2022.

當然。所以在過去的一年裡，我們沒有正常的季節性。我們在第一季度初停工，我們在第二季度試圖增加產量時經歷了最嚴重的供應鏈問題。因此，我們在今年晚些時候進行了追趕，導致 2022 年的半權重顯著增加。

In fact, we ended up producing more in each successive quarter throughout the year with the fourth quarter being the high point. We achieved our highest daily production rates in the fourth quarter, and we plan to keep those higher daily rates going into the first quarter of 2023.

事實上，我們最終在全年的每個連續季度都增加了產量，第四季度是最高點。我們在第四季度實現了最高的日生產率，我們計劃將這些較高的日生產率保持到 2023 年第一季度。

Now while line rates remain at those higher levels, there will be some key differences in sequential revenue though. First, there are about 15% less production days in the first quarter due to the holiday season. So expect revenue for small ag and turf and C&F to drop by about 15% sequentially in the first quarter of 2023 when compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.

現在，雖然線路費率保持在較高水平，但連續收入將存在一些關鍵差異。首先，由於假期旺季，第一季度的生產天數減少了約 15%。因此，與 2022 年第四季度相比，預計 2023 年第一季度小型農業和草坪以及 C&F 的收入將環比下降約 15%。

Our PPA factories will have another 5% to 10% fewer production days due to some model year changeovers, maintenance, training and supplier recovery. So in total, production and precision ag production time will decrease by 20% to 25% in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.

由於一些車型年的轉換、維護、培訓和供應商恢復，我們的 PPA 工廠的生產天數將再減少 5% 到 10%。因此，總的來說，與 2022 年第四季度相比，第一季度的生產和精密農業生產時間將減少 20% 至 25%。

Now also keep in mind that PPA benefited from clearing about $400 million of partially completed machines from inventory in the fourth quarter. So that benefit won't repeat in the first quarter. So we likely won't get back to a similar level of 4Q revenue until the second quarter of 2023.

現在還要記住，PPA 受益於第四季度從庫存中清理了約 4 億美元的部分完成的機器。因此，這種好處不會在第一季度重演。因此，我們可能要到 2023 年第二季度才能恢復到類似的第四季度收入水平。

Yes. This is John. Brent, I want to reiterate something you said. While sequentially, the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter will be lower. However, year-over-year production will be higher in the first quarter. We aren't starting the year out behind, so we'll have more production in the first half of 2023 than we did in the first half of 2022.

是的。這是約翰。布倫特，我想重申你說過的話。而按順序，第一季度與第四季度相比會更低。然而，第一季度的同比產量將更高。我們今年的開局並沒有落後，因此 2023 年上半年的產量將超過 2022 年上半年的產量。

That's helpful. Let's switch gears now to the supply chain. We've taken steps to try to mitigate risk, but the supply base remains fragile. We do see pockets improving, but at a slow pace and certainly not to prepandemic levels that we would consider to be a healthier supply chain. So our guide does not assume significant improvement or deterioration in 2023. Josh, can you elaborate on our production costs included in the forecast?

這很有幫助。現在讓我們切換到供應鏈。我們已採取措施試圖降低風險，但供應基礎仍然脆弱。我們確實看到經濟狀況有所改善，但速度緩慢，而且肯定沒有達到我們認為更健康的供應鏈的大流行前水平。因此，我們的指南假設 2023 年不會出現顯著改善或惡化。Josh，你能詳細說明一下我們在預測中包含的生產成本嗎？

As it relates to production costs in '23, there are a few puts and takes. Certain raw materials like hot-rolled coil steel are easing, as you can see in some of the different indices. Also, we expect the need for premium freight to subside next year.

由於它與 23 年的生產成本有關，所以有一些投入和投入。正如您在一些不同的指數中所看到的那樣，某些原材料（如熱軋鋼捲）正在放緩。此外，我們預計明年對優質運費的需求將會減少。

On the other hand, labor and energy costs will increase. That's not only impacting us directly but also our suppliers, so we continue to see increased cost for purchase components as well.

另一方面，勞動力和能源成本將增加。這不僅直接影響了我們，也影響了我們的供應商，因此我們繼續看到採購組件的成本也在增加。

Additionally, as you mentioned, we're seeing pockets of improvement in the supply chain, but it remains fragile. So we're not assuming that our operations return to normal levels of productivity and efficiency in our forecast. With the different ups and downs, our guide assumes a net increase in production costs in 2023, but we fully expect this to be offset by price realization and anticipate the full year being price production cost positive.

此外，正如您所提到的，我們看到供應鏈有所改善，但它仍然很脆弱。因此，我們並未假設我們的運營會恢復到我們預測中的正常生產率和效率水平。隨著不同的起伏，我們的指南假設 2023 年生產成本淨增加，但我們完全預計這將被價格實現所抵消，並預計全年生產成本價格為正。

Thank you for that. And before we open the line for other questions, Josh, can you talk briefly about the use of cash priorities and capital allocation in 2023?

謝謝你。在我們開始回答其他問題之前，Josh，你能簡單談談 2023 年現金優先權和資本配置的使用嗎？

Sure. Simply put, they remain unchanged. We're happy with our liquidity position to maintain our single A credit rating and fund our business. Our guide considers an increase in R&D and CapEx as we continue to progress on strategic projects building upon the tech stack and unlocking more value for our customers.

當然。簡單地說，它們保持不變。我們對我們的流動性狀況感到滿意，可以維持我們的單一 A 信用評級並為我們的業務提供資金。我們的指南考慮了研發和資本支出的增加，因為我們繼續推進基於技術堆棧的戰略項目並為我們的客戶釋放更多價值。

Next, the dividend. We increased it 8% in fiscal year '22. And it's worth noting that over the last 2 years, we've increased it nearly 50%. Finally, share repurchase. We purchased over $1 billion of shares in the fourth quarter for a total of $3.6 billion for fiscal year '22, and we have an opportunity to continue that trajectory heading into fiscal '23. So all in all, we're in a great position to grow our business execute on our Leap Ambitions and continue to return cash to shareholders.

接下來是分紅。我們在 22 財年將其增加了 8%。值得注意的是，在過去 2 年中，我們將其增加了近 50%。最後，股份回購。我們在第四季度以 22 財年總計 36 億美元的價格購買了超過 10 億美元的股票，我們有機會繼續這一軌跡進入 23 財年。因此，總而言之，我們處於有利地位，可以發展我們的業務，實現我們的飛躍雄心，並繼續向股東返還現金。

Thanks, Josh. Brent, let's see what other questions our investors have.

謝謝，喬希。布倫特，讓我們看看我們的投資者還有什麼其他問題。

Now we are ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call. The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure. (Operator Instructions)

現在我們準備開始通話的問答部分。接線員會指導您進行投票程序。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Tim Thein of Citigroup.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Tim Thein。

Maybe just circling back, Josh, on your comments there as to the full year, the expectations for price to be in excess of production costs. Obviously, a lot going on from a year-over-year standpoint, just given how the comps kind of will play out. Is there any more kind of help that you can give in terms of -- does that -- would you expect that spread to grow as we move through the year and thus the margin benefit is more back-half weighted or maybe not just because of how costs are trending? Maybe just any more kind of more on a quarterly basis, any more help you can give on that?

也許只是回過頭來，喬希，關於你對全年的評論，對價格的預期超過生產成本。顯然，從年復一年的角度來看，發生了很多事情，只是考慮到比賽將如何發揮作用。您是否可以提供更多類型的幫助 - 是嗎 - 您是否希望隨著我們在這一年中的移動而增加利差，因此利潤率收益更多後半加權或者可能不僅僅是因為成本趨勢如何？也許每季度提供更多，您可以提供更多幫助嗎？

Tim, this is Brent. Thanks for the question. As we look out to next year, we probably see a little bit of a different quarterly cadence than what you experienced in 2022. If I do a look back on this last year, we saw our most challenging price/cost quarters in the first half of the year. In fact, that compare got better as we got through each of the quarters with the fourth quarter being the most positive from a price relative to production cost perspective.

蒂姆，這是布倫特。謝謝你的問題。展望明年，我們可能會看到與您在 2022 年經歷的季度節奏略有不同。如果我回顧一下去年，我們在上半年看到了最具挑戰性的價格/成本季度的一年。事實上，隨著我們經歷每個季度，這種比較變得更好，從相對於生產成本的價格來看，第四季度是最積極的。

As we look out to 2023, I think you'll see a very different cadence there. We intend to be price/cost positive on a much more even basis throughout all of the quarters. You'll probably see the strongest price performance for us really earlier in the year just as the compares are most favorable. And then in the back half of the year as some of those price compares get a little harder production cost compares maybe get a little bit easier in the back half of the year. So I would expect for next year just more even cadence throughout the course of the year as we compare price to overall production cost.

當我們展望 2023 年時，我認為你會看到一個非常不同的節奏。我們打算在所有季度中以更均勻的方式實現價格/成本積極。你可能會在今年早些時候看到我們最強勁的價格表現，因為比較是最有利的。然後在今年下半年，由於其中一些價格比較變得更難，生產成本比較可能在今年下半年變得更容易一些。因此，我預計明年全年的節奏會更加均勻，因為我們將價格與總體生產成本進行比較。

Tim, one other thing. I mentioned this earlier in the prepared comments, but we have not forecast a return to normal productivity and efficiency in our factories. So as it relates to the overhead inefficiencies we saw in '22. To the extent we see more stability in supply chain, the ability to operate more in line with our plans through the year. There could be some benefit there. But at this point, we haven't pulled that into the forecast. We need to see that stability first.

提姆，還有一件事。我之前在準備好的評論中提到了這一點，但我們還沒有預測我們工廠的生產力和效率會恢復正常。因此，這與我們在 22 年看到的開銷低效有關。在某種程度上，我們看到供應鏈更加穩定，運營能力更符合我們全年的計劃。那裡可能會有一些好處。但在這一點上，我們還沒有將其納入預測。我們需要首先看到這種穩定性。

Our next question comes from Seth Weber of Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Seth Weber。

Josh, I think you mentioned the $400 million of inventory that you cleared in the fourth quarter. Can you just frame for us what's still to come? I mean, is first quarter like an equivalent amount? And do you expect that to be largely done by, call it, the first half? Or just how should we be thinking about this inventory that's kind of sitting around waiting for parts or materials?

喬希，我想你提到了你在第四季度清理了 4 億美元的庫存。你能為我們描繪一下未來的發展嗎？我的意思是，第一季度是等量的嗎？您是否希望在上半年完成大部分工作？或者我們應該如何考慮這種等待零件或材料的庫存？

We've made a lot of progress on the partially completed machines we've had in inventory since the second quarter. That's really where we saw that figure peak. We took down about 1/3 of that over the course of the first quarter, and then we took another $400 million down in the fourth quarter. I would say the level of partially completed inventory within the system right now is running at a much more normalized level. I mean there's always some level of partially completed machines kind of within our working capital system. So it's much more normalized right now. So the benefit that you saw in the fourth quarter is not going to repeat in the first quarter really at any other time, I think, in 2023, assuming we don't build more inventory of partially completed machine. So I would say, by and large, the tailwind from that has largely been completed in the fourth quarter.

自第二季度以來，我們在庫存的部分完成的機器上取得了很大進展。這確實是我們看到該數字峰值的地方。我們在第一季度減少了大約 1/3，然後我們在第四季度又減少了 4 億美元。我想說的是，系統內部分完成的庫存水平目前正以更加規範化的水平運行。我的意思是在我們的營運資金系統中總是有某種程度的部分完成的機器。所以它現在更加規範化。所以你在第四季度看到的好處不會在第一季度真正在任何其他時間重複，我認為，在 2023 年，假設我們不建立更多的部分完成機器的庫存。所以我想說，總的來說，第四季度的順風已經基本完成。

Yes, Seth, this is Josh. Maybe importantly, too, our intent in our factories is to not have partially completed machines and build and have to take things off-line and bring them back because of the inefficiencies and disruptions that drives. So the intent is to run much more linearly with our plans and not create as much of this rework that has to happen because it does drive a lot of disruption in the factory.

是的，賽斯，這是喬希。也許同樣重要的是，我們在工廠中的意圖是不讓部分完成的機器和建造，並且由於驅動的低效率和中斷而不得不將東西下線並恢復。因此，我們的目的是讓我們的計劃更加線性地運行，而不是創造太多必鬚髮生的返工，因為它確實會在工廠中造成很多破壞。

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook of Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Jamie Cook。

I guess my question was there -- you talked about the order book being full through the third quarter. Was there any difference by geography within large ag? And sort of when do you expect to open the order book up again, so that you'll have visibility through -- the visibility through the full year?

我想我的問題就在那裡——你談到第三季度的訂單已經滿了。大型 ag 中的地理位置是否存在差異？以及您希望什麼時候再次打開訂單簿，以便您可以看到 - 全年的可見性？

And then my second question, sorry, just on the production in large ag. Given what you said about production in the first half, I'm trying to think about the second half of the year. Does that imply just with your sales forecast by the fourth quarter sales could be down a little marginally just based on my back of the envelope math, I'm just trying to understand production cadence.

然後我的第二個問題，抱歉，只是關於大型 ag 的生產。鑑於你所說的上半年的生產情況，我正在考慮下半年的情況。這是否意味著僅根據我的信封數學，您對第四季度的銷售預測可能會略有下降，我只是想了解生產節奏。

Jamie, thanks for the question. I'll start on the order book. As we noted, we're running about kind of 70% full for next year. It varies a little bit by product line, things like combines were effectively sold out for the entire year. In North America, the tractor order book is, I think, 2/3 full. If I move to Europe, that's 70% full for Monheim, 65% full for combines. So pretty similar, I think, across those 2 geographies.

傑米，謝謝你的提問。我將從訂單簿開始。正如我們所指出的，我們明年的運行量大約為 70%。它因產品線而略有不同，像聯合收割機這樣的產品全年都已售罄。在北美，我認為拖拉機訂單已滿 2/3。如果我搬到歐洲，蒙海姆 70% 滿，聯合收割機 65%。我認為，這兩個地區非常相似。

Brazil is the one that we manage a little bit differently than the other 2. We run that at about a 3-month window just so that we have a little more flexibility with respect to pricing. That market tends to be a little dynamic with both FX and inflation can change quarter-to-quarter. So we're holding that order book in a little bit tighter than North America and Europe. And we've been executing that strategy for 2 years. We've been really successful there. I think managing price a little more dynamically in that region.

巴西是我們管理的一個與其他 2 個略有不同的國家。我們在大約 3 個月的窗口內運行它，以便我們在定價方面有更多的靈活性。該市場往往有點動態，外彙和通貨膨脹都可能隨季度變化。因此，我們持有的訂單比北美和歐洲要緊一些。我們已經執行該策略 2 年了。我們在那裡真的很成功。我認為在該地區更動態地管理價格。

I think going forward, you expect us for the remaining order book that's left in North America and Europe, to manage it on a rolling 6-month window, in front of us. So as we get to the first quarter, we should have pretty good visibility on the rest of the year with just a few slots left available.

我認為展望未來，您希望我們在北美和歐洲剩下的剩餘訂單簿中，在我們面前的 6 個月滾動窗口中進行管理。因此，當我們進入第一季度時，我們應該對今年剩下的時間有很好的了解，只剩下幾個空位。

As it relates to sort of the production cadence in the year. As we noted, first quarter we'll have just less production days, but we'll continue at those higher line rates. That will put quite a bit of production in the second quarter to give us a much better start to the first half of the year in '23 as we had in -- than we had in '22, as John noted earlier, probably just maybe a little less than 50% of the production will happen in the first half. So I think when you look first half, second half, you're not going to see as big a differential in the splits when you compare it back to 2022.

因為它與當年的生產節奏有關。正如我們所指出的，第一季度我們的生產天數將減少，但我們將繼續以更高的生產線費率。這將在第二季度投入大量生產，讓我們在 23 年上半年有一個比我們在 22 年更好的開端，正如約翰之前指出的那樣，可能只是略低於 50% 的產量將在上半年進行。所以我認為，當你回顧上半年和下半年時，與 2022 年相比，你不會看到分裂的差異那麼大。

Our next question comes from Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephen Volkmann。

My question is on how we should think about increasing interest rates, both with respect to kind of the impact on your finance company, but also what you're seeing relative to kind of how customers are reacting to higher financing rates as well.

我的問題是我們應該如何考慮提高利率，既要考慮對您的金融公司的影響，也要考慮客戶對更高融資利率的反應。

Steve, well, I'll start with the question on the customer first, and we can talk about John Deere Financial. I think the impact to the customer maybe varies a little bit depending on what customer segment we're talking about. Historically, the customer segment most sensitive to interest rates, is the customer segment for more of our consumer-facing products. So I think compact utility tractors and turf products tend to be a little more reliant on low interest rate financing. I think what you'll see as we progress through 2023. You may see a little more discount or incentive spend from the equipment operations on things like rate buy downs, but that's where we see the most sensitivity historically.

史蒂夫，好吧，我先從客戶的問題開始，我們可以談談約翰迪爾金融。我認為對客戶的影響可能會有所不同，具體取決於我們所談論的客戶群。從歷史上看，對利率最敏感的客戶群是我們更多面向消費者的產品的客戶群。所以我認為緊湊型多功能拖拉機和草坪產品往往更依賴於低利率融資。我認為隨著我們到 2023 年的進展，你會看到什麼。你可能會看到設備運營在利率購買等方面的折扣或激勵支出有所增加，但這是我們歷史上最敏感的地方。

When we look at large ag, interest costs overall are a relatively small portion of their P& L. That's not to say there's no sensitivity there, but it tends to be just a little less sensitive than maybe other customer segments that we have. And I think the good news for 2023 is that customer balance sheets are really in incredible shape right now. Over the course of 2022, we actually saw lower penetration rates at John Deere Financial because customers were using more cash to finance the acquisition. So that just speaks to not necessarily their sensitivity to interest rates, but more on just a strong balance sheet position that they're in going into 2023.

當我們看大公司時，利息成本總體上只佔其損益的一小部分。這並不是說那裡沒有敏感性，但它往往比我們擁有的其他客戶群的敏感性低一點。而且我認為 2023 年的好消息是客戶資產負債表現在確實處於令人難以置信的狀態。在 2022 年期間，我們實際上看到 John Deere Financial 的滲透率較低，因為客戶使用更多現金為收購融資。因此，這不一定說明了他們對利率的敏感性，而更多地說明了他們將進入 2023 年的強勁資產負債表狀況。

From a John Deere financial perspective, we run a match funded book there. So as our cost of borrowing goes up, that will take the [forum] and higher cost to our customers. We tend to manage that book in a way so that you don't see a lot of spread degradation because we manage those interest rates pretty closely in that match funded book. So I wouldn't say you'll see a big impact to profitability there. You'll see higher interest income and higher interest expense going into 2023.

從 John Deere 的財務角度來看，我們在那裡經營一本由匹配資金資助的書。因此，隨著我們的借貸成本上升，這將給我們的客戶帶來[論壇]和更高的成本。我們傾向於以某種方式管理那本書，這樣你就不會看到很多利差下降，因為我們在匹配資助的書中非常密切地管理這些利率。所以我不會說你會在那裡看到對盈利能力的重大影響。到 2023 年，您會看到更高的利息收入和更高的利息支出。

Our next question comes from Stanley Elliott of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Stanley Elliott。

Can you talk a little bit about the road construction business in North America? Obviously, we've got a lot of moneys coming down the pipe with IIJA. Do you think that the roadbuilding business gets front loaded on that? Should it be continuous over this period of time when you think about kind of like a 5-year plus out horizon?

您能談談北美的道路建設業務嗎？顯然，我們已經通過 IIJA 獲得了大量資金。你認為道路建設業務會提前加載嗎？當您考慮 5 年以上的視野時，它是否應該在這段時間內連續？

Yes, we are definitely seeing higher levels of demand in North America for Wirtgen. So if we kind of go across the different geographies, Wirtgen operating in right now, by far in a away, the strongest are in North America, followed by South America. Europe is starting to ease a little bit. And to your point, I mean, we're really just now starting to see the benefit from infrastructure going into '23.

是的，我們確實看到北美對維特根的需求更高。因此，如果我們跨越不同的地域，維特根目前在很遠的地方開展業務，最強的是北美，其次是南美。歐洲開始有所緩和。就你的觀點而言，我的意思是，我們真的才剛剛開始看到進入 23 世紀的基礎設施帶來的好處。

So I think that probably grows for Wirtgen over the course of the year and continues to strengthen that market. Importantly, North America right now is really strong mix for Wirtgen. I think about our manufacturing footprint, which is primarily German based. So the FX rate is actually really favorable for a strong North American market.

所以我認為維特根在這一年中可能會增長，並繼續加強該市場。重要的是，北美現在對維特根來說真的很強大。我想到了我們的製造足跡，它主要位於德國。因此，匯率實際上對強勁的北美市場非常有利。

Yes. Maybe to add to that, Brent, we just completed the Bauma show, and we had really, really strong Bauma order activity. It was actually higher versus 2019. So the demand is strong and customers are buying new equipment and new technologies in order to serve their customers.

是的。也許要補充一點，布倫特，我們剛剛完成了 Bauma 展，我們的 Bauma 訂單活動非常非常強大。它實際上比 2019 年更高。因此需求強勁，客戶正在購買新設備和新技術以服務他們的客戶。

Maybe just one other thing to add to that. As we ended 2022, we had the strongest margin performance for Wirtgen that we've seen since we've owned that business. So we continue to be pleased with the progress of the acquisition and the synergies that we've integrated in over time.

也許只是要補充一件事。到 2022 年底，維特根的利潤率表現是自我們擁有該業務以來所見過的最強勁表現。因此，我們繼續對收購的進展以及我們隨著時間的推移整合的協同效應感到滿意。

Our next question comes from Tami Zakaria of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

So given there were some one-off items this year, taking those out, can you just confirm what kind of core incremental margins you're expecting in each of your segments in 2023?

因此，考慮到今年有一些一次性項目，將它們剔除，您能否確認 2023 年每個細分市場的核心增量利潤率是多少？

Yes. Absolutely. We can talk through that. We did have a few special items in the year on the construction side, the onetime gain on the Deer-Hitachi deal as well as some Russia impairments. When we look at incrementals for next year, a couple of things to keep in mind. One, it's really still a very dynamic operating environment that we're in. We are still seeing some production costs running higher, right? Labor, energy, a lot of our purchase components are all going to be higher. Some of that is getting offset by [increases] in raw materials and freight. But all in all, we could see mid production costs increased by mid-single digits next year.

是的。絕對地。我們可以談談。今年我們在建築方面確實有一些特殊項目，Deer-Hitachi 交易的一次性收益以及俄羅斯的一些減值。當我們考慮明年的增量時，需要記住幾件事。第一，我們所處的運營環境確實仍然非常動態。我們仍然看到一些生產成本在上漲，對吧？勞動力、能源，我們的許多采購成分都會更高。其中一些被原材料和運費的[增加]所抵消。但總而言之，我們可以看到明年的中期生產成本將以中個位數增長。

We're also going to see a little more higher SA&G and R&D in the year as well. Now we're getting the price to offset that and enough to put us back in line with historical incrementals at Deere. So I think even once you adjust for some of those onetime items, you'll see incremental margins sort of commensurate with what we've done traditionally or maybe even just a tad higher.

我們也將在這一年看到更高的 SA&G 和 R&D。現在我們得到的價格可以抵消這一點，並且足以讓我們與迪爾的歷史增量保持一致。所以我認為，即使你對其中一些一次性項目進行了調整，你也會看到增量利潤率與我們傳統上所做的相當，甚至可能略高一點。

Yes, Tami, it's Josh. One thing to add there is, I think what's important too is probably a bit above historically what we've done on the incremental side when you take out some of the onetime items. But we're also investing pretty heavily in executing on this future of where we're headed. And thinking about the Leap Ambitions and some of the business model transformation that we're working through that are going to -- as we deliver that, create more value for customers, to dampen cyclicality and create a more resilient business. So there's -- embedded in here is investment in strategic projects to deliver on that.

是的，塔米，我是喬希。要補充的一件事是，我認為同樣重要的是，當您刪除一些一次性項目時，從歷史上看，我們在增量方面所做的工作可能有點高。但我們也投入了大量資金來執行我們未來的發展方向。並考慮我們正在努力實現的 Leap Ambitions 和一些商業模式轉型——在我們實現這些轉型時，為客戶創造更多價值，抑制週期性並創造更具彈性的業務。因此，這裡嵌入了對戰略項目的投資以實現這一目標。

Our next question comes from Matt Elkott of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Matt Elkott。

Brent, and I think, John, you mentioned that a little less than 50% of production will come in the first half. Given the fact that you guys have more of a tailwind for pricing in the first half and more of a tailwind from subsiding costs in the second half does ultimately the earnings cadence basically just follow the production cadence for the year?

布倫特，我想，約翰，你提到上半年的產量將略低於 50%。鑑於你們在上半年有更多的定價順風和下半年成本下降的更多順風，最終盈利節奏基本上只是跟隨今年的生產節奏嗎？

Matt, with respect to the earnings cadence, I think that's probably a fair assessment that you'll see. You'll see earnings cadence, sort of follow that production ramp that you just outlined there and sort of the puts and takes between higher price in the first half of the year, lower production costs in the back half of the year. So I think those sort of net out a little bit. And really, you can just I think, factor in some of those traditional incrementals as you apply them to the varying production rates throughout the course of the year.

馬特，關於盈利節奏，我認為這可能是一個公平的評估，你會看到。你會看到盈利節奏，有點像你剛剛在那裡概述的生產坡度，以及在今年上半年的較高價格和下半年較低的生產成本之間的看跌期權和收益。所以我認為這些有點有用。實際上，我認為您可以將其中一些傳統增量考慮在內，因為您將它們應用於全年不同的生產率。

Yes, Matt, it's Josh. Maybe one thing to point out. It's been a while since we've had a year that followed a typical trend for seasonality. And I think this year, '23 probably returns a bit more to that, where you see higher levels of both sales and margin in 2Q, 3Q, which is much more traditional to what we've done in the past.

是的，馬特，我是喬希。也許需要指出一件事。自從我們有一年遵循典型的季節性趨勢以來已經有一段時間了。而且我認為今年，'23 可能會返回更多，你會看到第二季度、第三季度的銷售額和利潤率都更高，這比我們過去所做的要傳統得多。

Maybe just to add to Brent and Josh's comments. We're much -- very much focused on getting off to a strong start in 2023 and getting our machines delivered to our customers. Really, the bottom line, I think, for you all to take away is, we won't be as back-end loaded in '23 as we were in 2022. And we're doing everything to keep up just the outstanding production progress that you saw in the fourth quarter, and we believe we'll be able to continue with that execution into the first and second quarter of 2023.

也許只是為了補充 Brent 和 Josh 的意見。我們非常 - 非常專注於在 2023 年取得一個良好的開端，並將我們的機器交付給我們的客戶。真的，我認為，對你們所有人來說，最重要的是，我們不會像 2022 年那樣在 23 年加載後端。我們正在盡一切努力保持出色的生產進度你在第四季度看到的，我們相信我們將能夠繼續執行到 2023 年第一季度和第二季度。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

I'm wondering if you could just talk about precision ag. Can you just update us on Blue River we're talking to folks that are seeing pricing in the mid- to high single digit dollars per acre range for the subscription. I'm wondering if you could comment if that's representative of the pricing points. And I believe you folks planned on full rate production year 2 of commercial availability. I'm wondering, is that still the plan for 2024 at this point?

我想知道你是否可以談談 precision ag。你能告訴我們關於 Blue River 的最新消息嗎？我們正在與那些看到訂閱價格在每英畝中高個位數美元範圍內的人們交談。我想知道你是否可以評論這是否代表定價點。我相信你們計劃在商業可用性的第 2 年全速生產。我想知道，這仍然是 2024 年的計劃嗎？

Just a couple of high-level comments on precision, and we can dive in to autonomy and See & Spray after that. But overall, we're seeing kind of higher take rates for a lot of our existing technologies that have been in the market for the last couple of years. I would say anywhere from 5% to 10% higher take rates in 2023. So we're super encouraged by that. Technologies like ExactEmerge and ExactApply continue to do well, continue to penetrate the market further.

只是一些關於精度的高級評論，然後我們可以深入探討自主性和 See & Spray 之後。但總的來說，我們看到過去幾年市場上出現的許多現有技術的採用率有所提高。我會說 2023 年的採用率將提高 5% 到 10%。因此我們對此感到非常鼓舞。 ExactEmerge 和 ExactApply 等技術繼續表現良好，繼續進一步滲透市場。

Also notably, some of the newer technologies that we've had, like ExactRate or the CH950 have also made really good inroads as we start filling out the order book for next year. I think for ExactRate, we're almost double the take rate almost to 20% going into next year.

同樣值得注意的是，隨著我們開始填寫明年的訂單簿，我們擁有的一些新技術，如 ExactRate 或 CH950 也取得了很好的進展。我認為對於 ExactRate，明年我們的採用率幾乎翻了一番，幾乎達到 20%。

Now as you noted, we're also very focused on some of these next-gen technologies like See & Spray like autonomy. And those 2 technologies carry with them more recurring revenue opportunity than we've had in the past. So we've been super encouraged by putting this out with customers. We've done it on a limited basis. But these are paying customers, and they are adapting to the new business model, and that's part of the learnings that we've had over the course of the summer. And then in the fall, we were running autonomous paid acres over the fall. The vast majority of our customers have really accepted the model, and we're really encouraged by that. We're going to get a little bit smarter and tighten that up as we go into 2023, which will be a second year of a limited production release there.

現在正如您所指出的，我們也非常關注其中一些下一代技術，例如 See & Spray 等自主性。這兩項技術帶來了比我們過去更多的經常性收入機會。因此，我們非常受鼓舞地向客戶展示了這一點。我們已經在有限的基礎上做到了。但這些都是付費客戶，他們正在適應新的商業模式，這是我們在整個夏天學到的一部分。然後在秋天，我們在整個秋天運行自主的有償土地。我們的絕大多數客戶都真正接受了該模型，我們對此感到非常鼓舞。進入 2023 年時，我們將變得更聰明一點，並收緊它，這將是在那裡發布限量版產品的第二年。

Yes, Brent, just to add to that, I think an important comment that underscores why this is happening and why we're seeing these strong take rates is the current environment underscores the need for precision. Challenges of our customers are definitely more acute than they've ever, ever been and the need for our customers to do more with less is greater than it's been in the past, especially when you consider all the rising input costs, not just labor scarcity, but lack of skilled labor. So precision ag is the best solution to help them solve these very, very difficult problems.

是的，布倫特，我想補充一點，我認為一個重要的評論強調了為什麼會發生這種情況以及為什麼我們看到這些強勁的接受率是當前的環境強調了精確的必要性。我們客戶的挑戰肯定比以往任何時候都更加嚴峻，我們的客戶比過去更需要用更少的錢做更多的事情，尤其是當你考慮到所有不斷上升的投入成本，而不僅僅是勞動力短缺時，但缺乏熟練的勞動力。所以precision ag是幫助他們解決這些非常非常難的問題的最佳方案。

We're more confident today in our opportunity to create value for our customers through our identified $150 billion of IAM, and we're going to continue to prioritize our investments towards the technologies and solutions that unlock that value.

今天，我們更有信心通過我們確定的 1500 億美元 IAM 為我們的客戶創造價值，我們將繼續優先投資於釋放該價值的技術和解決方案。

And Josh indicated earlier on. This year, we're spending more than we ever have in the past to create those new products, new solutions, and that's going to have a big benefit in future years.

Josh 早些時候指出。今年，我們花費了比以往任何時候都多的錢來創造這些新產品、新解決方案，這將在未來幾年帶來巨大好處。

Great point, John. Maybe one thing I'd add there is we've also made a change to our dealer pay for performance. So we're including precision ag execution in that pay for performance. And that's a really important step as we think about continuing to drive the outcomes that we wanted to deliver and really a shift from adoption to utilization to make sure we're delivering on that and we're showing and demonstrating the incremental addressable unlock that we can create, which we think is differentiated for Deere.

好點，約翰。也許我要補充的一件事是我們還改變了經銷商的績效薪酬。因此，我們將精確的 ag 執行包括在績效薪酬中。這是一個非常重要的步驟，因為我們考慮繼續推動我們想要交付的結果，並真正從採用轉向利用，以確保我們實現這一目標，並且我們正在展示和展示我們的增量可尋址解鎖可以創造，我們認為這對迪爾來說是與眾不同的。

The next question comes from Nicole DeBlase of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Just maybe asking a quick one on pricing. With the price guidance that you guys have embedded, is that all price carryover? Or are you embedding another annual increase as per like a return to normal in 2023? And how has the customer response been to pricing?

也許只是問一個關於定價的快速問題。有了你們嵌入的價格指導，這就是所有價格結轉嗎？還是按照 2023 年恢復正常的方式嵌入另一個年度增長？客戶對定價的反應如何？

So with respect to price, you're picking up a little bit of both. I mean there's definitely some carryover from 2022. Particularly, we had a lot more -- as had a lot higher pricing in the back half of 2022. So you're going to see those compares be a little bit higher in the first half of 2023. But there were additional list price increases for the 2023 order book. So it's going to be a combination of both. I think with respect to the elasticity of demand, we haven't seen a drop-off in demand yet. As we noted, we've had to put ceilings in on all of our order books, which right now, demand just continues to outstrip supply. And as John noted earlier in his comments, the velocity of those orders hasn't slowed at all as we've paced through the fourth quarter.

因此，就價格而言，兩者兼而有之。我的意思是，從 2022 年開始肯定會有一些結轉。特別是，我們有更多——因為 2022 年下半年的定價要高得多。所以你會看到這些比較在 2022 年上半年略高一些2023 年。但是 2023 年訂單的標價還有額外上漲。所以這將是兩者的結合。我認為就需求彈性而言，我們還沒有看到需求下降。正如我們所指出的，我們不得不在我們所有的訂單簿上設置上限，而現在，需求繼續超過供應。正如約翰早些時候在評論中指出的那樣，隨著我們在第四季度的步伐，這些訂單的速度絲毫沒有放緩。

Our next question comes from Mig Dobre of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Mig Dobre。

I want to go back to the discussion on precision ag, if we can. And I'm sort of curious here. The autonomy product suite, how are you -- how has your thinking evolved in terms of the way you're commercializing this portion of the business and the progress that you've made towards bringing this to actually become the mainstream product. Is that a 2024 time frame, 2025? And I'm curious for the customers that are buying 8R tractors now, do they have the option to get this feature as a mass product?

如果可以的話，我想回到關於 precision ag 的討論。我在這裡有點好奇。自治產品套件，你好嗎 - 你的想法如何在你將這部分業務商業化的方式以及你在將其真正成為主流產品方面取得的進展方面發生了變化。那是 2024 年還是 2025 年？我很好奇現在購買 8R 拖拉機的客戶，他們是否可以選擇將此功能作為大眾產品獲得？

Great question on autonomy. So right now, our autonomy is being rolled out on a limited basis. So it's not available to every single customer. 2023 will be another year where we'll have a limited commercialized rollout of autonomy. I think what's changing a little bit with our mindset around precision, really 2 things. One, this is the type of technology that we think lends itself really well to a per acre type of monetization model which is different than our historical point-of-sale model for most of our products and solutions.

關於自主權的好問題。所以現在，我們的自主權正在有限的基礎上推出。因此，並非每個客戶都可以使用它。 2023 年將是我們將有限地商業化推出自治的又一年。我認為我們圍繞精度的心態正在發生一些變化，真的有兩件事。第一，我們認為這種技術非常適合每英畝的貨幣化模式，這與我們大多數產品和解決方案的歷史銷售點模式不同。

So we're getting an opportunity to roll that out with customers. And what we're learning is how customers consume our solutions differs among the customer base. I think they've actually really enjoyed the variable cost aspect because what we're seeing is customers use autonomy, a bit of a hybrid role or a hybrid model. They're driving their tractor some. They're putting on autonomy mode overnight to get the job done while they sleep. And so that allows them to really pay just for the part of the product that they use. I think the other thing that's really important with the rollout of autonomy is -- and this is a little bit different than what you've seen in the past.

因此，我們有機會與客戶一起推廣。我們正在學習的是客戶如何使用我們的解決方案在客戶群中有所不同。我認為他們實際上真的很喜歡可變成本方面，因為我們看到的是客戶使用自主權，有點混合角色或混合模型。他們正在開拖拉機。他們整夜開啟自主模式，以便在睡覺時完成工作。這樣一來，他們就可以真正為他們使用的產品部分付費。我認為對於自治的推出來說真正重要的另一件事是——這與你過去看到的有點不同。

We will roll out this technology, really retrofit first or field kit first as opposed to most of our technologies have gone factory installed first. So I think you're going to see a little bit of a shift in some of these next-generation technologies, both in terms of the business model that we apply to it, giving us some opportunities for recurring revenue, but also more of an emphasis on field kit opportunities or retrofit opportunities at the onset of some of these technologies.

我們將推出這項技術，真正首先進行改造或首先進行現場套件，而不是我們的大多數技術首先在工廠安裝。所以我認為你會看到這些下一代技術中的一些發生了一些轉變，無論是在我們應用的商業模式方面，給我們一些經常性收入的機會，但也更多的是在其中一些技術開始時強調現場工具包機會或改造機會。

Yes, Brent, just to add to that. A couple of things I think are important. First of all, our experience with customers this fall really reinforced our view on the very real challenges our customers are facing with respect to labor, labor availability and the value of hitting that agronomic window. So with limited skilled labor, the downside effect to it is not hitting the agronomic window and then having an impact on yield. So having the machine running when it needs to run was very critical to our customers.

是的，布倫特，只是為了補充這一點。我認為有幾件事很重要。首先，我們今年秋天與客戶的經歷確實強化了我們對客戶在勞動力、勞動力可用性和達到農藝窗口的價值方面面臨的真正挑戰的看法。因此，在熟練勞動力有限的情況下，它的負面影響不會觸及農藝窗口，然後對產量產生影響。因此，讓機器在需要運行時運行對我們的客戶來說非常重要。

Also, as you mentioned, the customer acceptance of the per acre model was really, really good. And one evidence of that is every single customer that use this product in this fall have signed up to use it in the spring. So really, really important.

另外，正如您提到的，客戶對每英畝模型的接受度非常非常好。一個證據是，今年秋天使用該產品的每一位客戶都已註冊在春季使用它。所以真的，真的很重要。

Last thing I want to leave you with is, when you think of autonomy, I want you to start thinking about autonomy and automation. And this is just one major productivity unlock an entire production system.

我想留給你的最後一件事是，當你想到自治時，我希望你開始考慮自治和自動化。而這只是解鎖整個生產系統的主要生產力之一。

And if you remember, as part of our Leap Ambitions, we're committing to have a total autonomy and automation solution for corn and soy in the U.S. We want to unlock all of this value for our customers. And what we've been doing here the last couple of years is proving out, this is technically possible, and I am really excited about it.

如果您還記得，作為我們 Leap Ambitions 的一部分，我們致力於在美國為玉米和大豆提供完全自主和自動化的解決方案。我們希望為我們的客戶釋放所有這些價值。過去幾年我們在這裡所做的事情證明，這在技術上是可行的，我對此感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from Larry De Maria of William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自威廉布萊爾的拉里德瑪麗亞。

So staying on that topic a little bit, you continue to obviously [push] price and value per machine, but it's getting harder to pencil out for the midsized farmers, and forcing more scale needed in the industry. So ultimately, I'm wondering if we're getting towards the upper limits of what the growers can handle and will accept in terms of price, maybe, do you think they need a break maybe into '24? And -- or perhaps this is moving us closer towards a broader per-acre model beyond just your autonomy quicker.

因此，稍微停留在這個話題上，你顯然會繼續 [推高] 每台機器的價格和價值，但越來越難以為中型農民劃定界限，並迫使該行業需要更大的規模。所以最終，我想知道我們是否正在接近種植者可以處理的上限並在價格方面接受，也許，你認為他們可能需要進入 24 年嗎？並且 - 或者這可能使我們更接近更廣泛的每英畝模型，而不僅僅是您的自主權。

Larry, it's Josh. Thanks for the question. I think the opportunity we have in front of us here is and John and Brent just mentioned this is retrofit. And the ability to go back across the installed base and upgrade and improve productivity and technology without requiring a completely new machine.

拉里，是喬希。謝謝你的問題。我認為擺在我們面前的機會是，約翰和布倫特剛剛提到這是改造。並且能夠在不需要全新機器的情況下返回已安裝的基礎併升級和提高生產力和技術。

So I think that is differentiated solution than we've had in the past and also allows for relative value based on whether it's size of farm, particularly if you're paying on more of a per use per acre basis. So we think that's a significant component to unlocking that value for our customers and allows the technology to cover more acres as we go through the field.

因此，我認為這是與我們過去相比的差異化解決方案，並且還允許根據農場的規模來計算相對價值，特別是如果您要支付更多的每英畝使用費用。因此，我們認為這是為我們的客戶釋放價值的重要組成部分，並允許該技術在我們經過該領域時覆蓋更多英畝。

Our next question comes from John Joyner of BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 John Joyner。

and this should be quick. I mean just following up on Mig and Larry's question. When you think about the per-acre model, I mean, does this ultimately become a kind of take it or leave it decision for producers such that if you want to get autonomy, if you wanted to have See & Spray, then you have to have the subscription, otherwise, you don't get it?

這應該很快。我的意思是只是跟進 Mig 和 Larry 的問題。當你考慮每英畝模型時，我的意思是，這是否最終會成為一種由生產者決定的決定，如果你想獲得自主權，如果你想擁有 See & Spray，那麼你必須有訂閱，否則，你不明白嗎？

Yes. I think the -- John, thanks for your question. I think the opportunities do retrofit gives you some optionality to whether or not you want to leverage it. I think what we're seeing from customers having it and having the opportunity or the optionality to engage is really important. And we've seen this, whether it's with See & Spray or autonomy, there are different trade-offs that customers will make, whether it's timing, whether it's field conditions, whether it's labor availability, something creating optionality is really, really critical and really providing an opportunity for more scale skilled use of these technologies across greater acreage than farm sizes.

是的。我認為——約翰，謝謝你的提問。我認為改造的機會讓你可以選擇是否要利用它。我認為我們從擁有它並有機會或可選擇參與的客戶那裡看到的是非常重要的。我們已經看到了這一點，無論是使用 See & Spray 還是自動駕駛，客戶都會做出不同的權衡，無論是時間、現場條件、勞動力可用性，創造選擇性的東西真的非常非常關鍵，而且真正為在比農場規模更大的面積上更大規模地熟練使用這些技術提供了機會。

Josh, I think it's also important to talk about what our goal here is with each one of these technologies. Our goal is to develop technologies that are targeted at the greatest problems that our customers have with the end or the outcome being by using John Deere technology, you as the customer will be more profitable because it will minimize your inputs. You're going to be more productive because of the case of autonomy, we might take somebody out of the cab or other technologies.

喬什，我認為談論我們對這些技術的目標是什麼也很重要。我們的目標是開發針對客戶遇到的最大問題的技術，最終或結果是，通過使用 John Deere 技術，您作為客戶將獲得更多利潤，因為它將最大限度地減少您的投入。由於自治的情況，你會更有效率，我們可能會把人從駕駛室或其他技術中帶走。

And you're going to do the jobs you do in a more environmentally sustainable way. That's really good for our business. It's good for our business long term regardless of where we are in any given cycle. Customers are going to buy these technologies to improve their profitability.

而且您將以更環保的可持續方式完成您所做的工作。這對我們的業務非常有利。無論我們處於任何給定週期的哪個階段，這對我們的長期業務都有好處。客戶將購買這些技術以提高他們的盈利能力。

The next question comes from David Raso of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I was curious about the comment you made about the inability to raise your dealer inventory through '23. Obviously, that's very encouraging for your build schedule for '24. Can you give us a sense of what percent below normal do you see your dealer inventory exiting '23?

我很好奇您對無法通過 23 年提高經銷商庫存的評論。顯然，這對您 24 年的構建計劃非常鼓舞人心。您能否告訴我們您看到您的經銷商庫存退出 23 年時低於正常水平的百分比？

Yes. Thanks for the question, David. With respect to dealer inventory, and I'll talk kind of both new and used here. I know your question is more around new. For high horsepower equipment, on 4-wheel drives, we're at 10% inventory to sales. High-horsepower 2-wheel-drive tractors are 12%. Historically, that would be 25% to 30% IS ratios there. Combines are especially low, although that's a bit seasonal. Those are always in the year pretty low post harvest. But that gives you an idea of sort of the magnitude of the increase we need to see in the channel going forward into 2024.

是的。謝謝你的問題，大衛。關於經銷商庫存，我將在這裡討論新的和二手的。我知道你的問題更多是關於新的。對於四輪驅動的大馬力設備，我們的庫存率為 10%。大馬力兩輪驅動拖拉機為12%。從歷史上看，那裡的 IS 比率為 25% 到 30%。聯合收割機特別低，儘管這有點季節性。那些在收穫後的年份總是很低。但這讓您了解我們需要在 2024 年之前看到的渠道增長幅度。

And with that, we'll wrap up the call. We appreciate everyone's time and hope you all have a great Thanksgiving.

就這樣，我們將結束通話。感謝大家的寶貴時間，希望大家感恩節過得愉快。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time. Thank you, and have a good day.

謝謝你。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開連接。謝謝你，有一個美好的一天。