強鹿 (DE) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Deere & Company Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Brent Norwood, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加迪爾公司第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監 Brent Norwood 先生。謝謝你。你可以開始了。

Hello. Also on the call today are Cory Reed, President of Worldwide Production & Precision Ag; Raj Kalathur, Chief Financial Officer and President of John Deere Financial; Josh Jepsen, Deputy Financial Officer; and Rachel Bach, Manager of Investor Communications.

你好。今天也參加電話會議的還有全球生產和精密集團總裁 Cory Reed； Raj Kalathur，約翰迪爾金融公司首席財務官兼總裁； Josh Jepsen，副財務官；和投資者溝通經理 Rachel Bach。

Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's third quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal year 2022. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the morning -- the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.

今天，我們將仔細研究迪爾第三季度的收益，然後花一些時間談論我們的市場和我們目前對 2022 財年的展望。之後，我們將回答您的問題。請注意，可以使用幻燈片來補充早上的電話——今天早上的電話。可以在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 上訪問它們。

First, a reminder. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company. Any other use, record -- any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

首先，提醒一下。該電話正在互聯網上進行現場直播，並記錄下來以供 Deere & Company 將來傳輸和使用。未經 Deere 明確書面同意，嚴禁對本受版權保護的廣播的任何部分進行任何其他使用、錄製或傳輸。電話會議（包括問答環節）的參與者同意，他們在所有媒體中的肖像和評論可以被存儲並用作收益電話會議的一部分。

This call includes forward-looking comments concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K and periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

本次電話會議包括有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性評論，這些計劃和預測受到重大風險和不確定性的影響。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的其他信息包含在公司最近提交給證券交易委員會的 8-K 表格和定期報告中。

This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings and Events. I will now turn the call over to Rachel Bach.

該呼籲還可能包括不符合美國公認會計原則的財務措施。有關這些措施的其他信息，包括與可比較的 GAAP 措施的對賬，包含在新聞稿中，並發佈在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的季度收益和事件下。我現在將把電話轉給 Rachel Bach。

Thanks, Brent. Good morning. John Deere achieved higher production rates in the third quarter, resulting in a 25% increase in net sales despite ongoing supply challenges. Financial results for the quarter included an 18% margin for the equipment operations. Ag fundamentals remain solid with our order books beginning to fill for model year '23 products, reflecting continued healthy demand as we look ahead. The construction and forestry markets also continue to benefit from demand, contributing to the division's strong performance in the quarter. Similarly, order books are now extending into 2023, providing visibility into the new year.

謝謝，布倫特。早上好。約翰迪爾在第三季度實現了更高的生產率，儘管供應面臨持續挑戰，但淨銷售額仍增長了 25%。本季度的財務業績包括設備運營 18% 的利潤率。農業基本面保持穩固，我們的 23 年車型訂單開始填滿，反映了我們展望未來的持續健康需求。建築和林業市場也繼續受益於需求，為該部門在本季度的強勁表現做出了貢獻。同樣，訂單簿現在延長到 2023 年，為新的一年提供了可見性。

Slide 3 shows the results for the second quarter. Net sales and revenues were up 22% to $14.1 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were up 25% to $13 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $1.884 billion or $6.16 per diluted share.

幻燈片 3 顯示了第二季度的結果。淨銷售額和收入增長 22% 至 141 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額增長 25% 至 130 億美元。歸屬於 Deere & Company 的淨收入為 18.84 億美元或每股攤薄收益 6.16 美元。

Looking at results by segment, beginning with our Production & Precision Ag business on Slide 4. Net sales of $6.096 billion were up 43% compared to the third quarter last year, largely due to higher production and shipment volumes. Price realization in the quarter was positive by about 15 points, whereas currency translation was negative by about 4 points. Operating profit was $1.293 billion, resulting in a 21% operating margin for the segment. The year-over-year increase in operating profit was primarily due to price realization and higher shipment volumes, partially offset by higher production costs and higher SA&G and R&D spend.

從第 4 張幻燈片中的生產和精密 Ag 業務開始按細分市場查看結果。與去年第三季度相比，淨銷售額為 60.96 億美元，增長了 43%，這主要是由於產量和出貨量增加。本季度的價格實現為正值約 15 個百分點，而貨幣換算為負值約 4 個百分點。營業利潤為 12.93 億美元，該部門的營業利潤率為 21%。營業利潤的同比增長主要是由於價格實現和出貨量增加，部分被更高的生產成本和更高的 SA&G 和研發支出所抵消。

The production costs were mostly elevated material and freight. Overhead spend was also higher for the period as persistent supply challenges continue to cause production inefficiencies. Despite these challenges, factories were able to achieve higher rates of production and made progress on reducing the number of partially completed machines in inventory. Our factories are focused on finishing and shipping the remaining machines in the fourth quarter, which will help our progress toward restoring productivity and efficiencies going into next year. The increased SA&G and R&D spend reflects our continued development of our technology stack and our progress on our Leap Ambitions, both of which will unlock additional value for our customers.

生產成本主要是材料和運費的上漲。由於持續的供應挑戰繼續導致生產效率低下，該期間的間接費用也較高。儘管存在這些挑戰，工廠還是能夠實現更高的生產率，並在減少庫存中部分完成的機器數量方面取得了進展。我們的工廠專注於在第四季度完成和運送剩餘的機器，這將有助於我們在明年恢復生產力和效率方面取得進展。 SA&G 和研發支出的增加反映了我們對技術堆棧的持續發展以及我們在 Leap Ambitions 方面的進展，這兩者都將為我們的客戶帶來額外的價值。

Next, Small Ag & Turf on Slide 5. Net sales were up 16%, totaling $3.635 billion in the third quarter due to higher shipment volumes and price realization more than offsetting negative currency translation. Price realization in the quarter was positive by 10 points while currency translation was negative by over 4 points. For the quarter, operating profit was down year-over-year at $552 million, resulting in a 15% operating margin. The decreased profit was primarily due to higher production costs, specifically materials, offset by price realization.

接下來是幻燈片 5 上的 Small Ag & Turf。第三季度淨銷售額增長 16%，總計 36.35 億美元，原因是出貨量增加和價格實現超過了負面的貨幣轉換。本季度的價格實現為正值 10 個百分點，而貨幣換算為負值超過 4 個百分點。本季度，營業利潤同比下降 5.52 億美元，營業利潤率為 15%。利潤減少主要是由於較高的生產成本，特別是材料，被價格實現所抵消。

Turning now to the industry outlook on Slide 6. We expect U.S. and Canada industry sales of large ag equipment to be up around 15%. While the industry continues to be constrained by supply, demand remains robust and our guidance assumes a heavier back-end loaded year for industry retail. Relative to the industry, we've had our strongest results in high-horsepower row crop tractors, and we plan to end the year approaching our highest market share on record. Our order books for the remainder of the current fiscal year are full, and we see signs of robust demand into 2023 with some order books already full through the first half of next year.

現在轉向幻燈片 6 的行業前景。我們預計美國和加拿大大型農業設備的行業銷售額將增長 15% 左右。儘管該行業繼續受到供應限制，但需求仍然強勁，我們的指導假設行業零售的後端負載較重。相對於該行業，我們在大馬力行作物拖拉機方面取得了最強勁的業績，我們計劃在年底接近我們有記錄以來的最高市場份額。我們本財年剩餘時間的訂單已滿，我們看到到 2023 年需求強勁的跡象，一些訂單已經滿到明年上半年。

Small Ag & Turf industry demand continues to be estimated generally flat this year. While we see steadiness from our hay and forage segment, consumer products such as contact utility tractors and turf equipment are down due to supply constraints, low turf inventory and moderating demand.

小型農業和草坪行業的需求繼續估計今年基本持平。雖然我們看到我們的干草和草料部門保持穩定，但由於供應限制、草皮庫存低和需求放緩，接觸式公用拖拉機和草坪設備等消費品下降。

Moving on to Europe. The industry is forecasted to be roughly flat despite solid demand. While supply constraints and operating challenges are affecting the industry, we expect to finish the year with higher shipments and market share gains. In South America, we expect industry sales of tractors and combines to increase by about 10% to 15%. Despite the low trend in crop yields due to inclement weather, customers are very profitable this year, benefiting from high commodity prices. Industry sales in Asia are still forecasted to be down moderately as India, the world's largest tractor market by unit, has moderated from record volumes achieved in 2021.

繼續前往歐洲。儘管需求強勁，但預計該行業將大致持平。雖然供應限制和運營挑戰正在影響該行業，但我們預計今年將以更高的出貨量和市場份額增長結束。在南美，我們預計拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷售額將增長約 10% 至 15%。儘管由於惡劣天氣導致作物產量呈低趨勢，但客戶今年受益於商品價格高企，利潤豐厚。亞洲的工業銷售預計仍將適度下降，因為按單位計算，世界上最大的拖拉機市場印度已從 2021 年的創紀錄銷量放緩。

Moving on to our segment forecast on Slide 7. Production & Precision Ag net sales continue to be forecasted up between 25% and 30% in fiscal year '22. The forecast assumes nearly 14 points of positive price realization for the full year, which will allow us to be price/cost positive for the fiscal year. This is partially offset by roughly 2 points of currency headwind. For the segment's operating margin, our full year forecast is between 20% and 21%. The forecast reflects higher costs for material and freight inflation as well as the elevated overheads associated with the supply constraints that have introduced a number of factory inefficiencies this year.

繼續我們在幻燈片 7 上的細分市場預測。預測 22 財年生產和精密 Ag 的淨銷售額繼續增長 25% 至 30%。該預測假設全年實現近 14 個正價格點，這將使我們在本財年實現價格/成本正數。這被大約 2 個點的貨幣逆風部分抵消。對於該部門的營業利潤率，我們的全年預測在 20% 至 21% 之間。該預測反映了材料和運費通脹的成本上升，以及與供應限制相關的間接費用增加，這導致今年許多工廠效率低下。

Slide 8 shows our forecast for the Small Ag & Turf segment. We now expect fiscal year '22 net sales to be up in the range of 10% to 15%. This guidance includes over 9 points of positive price realization, partially offset by 3 points of unfavorable currency impact. The segment's operating margin is now forecasted between 14% and 15%. The margin guidance reflects higher material costs and lower expectations for volume as small engine availability has been especially challenging. Price/cost remains neutral for the year.

幻燈片 8 顯示了我們對小型農業和草坪細分市場的預測。我們現在預計 22 財年的淨銷售額將增長 10% 至 15%。該指引包括超過 9 個正價格實現點，部分被 3 個不利貨幣影響點抵消。該部門的營業利潤率目前預計在 14% 至 15% 之間。利潤率指引反映了較高的材料成本和較低的產量預期，因為小型發動機的可用性尤其具有挑戰性。今年價格/成本保持中性。

Changing to Construction & Forestry on Slide 9. For the quarter, net sales of $3.269 billion were up 8% due to price realization. Operating profit increased year-over-year to $514 million, resulting in a 16% operating margin. Favorable price realization offset higher production costs during the quarter. The production costs were mainly a result of elevated material and freight as well as higher overhead spend.

在幻燈片 9 上更改為建築和林業。由於價格實現，本季度的淨銷售額為 32.69 億美元，增長了 8%。營業利潤同比增長至 5.14 億美元，營業利潤率為 16%。有利的價格實現抵消了本季度較高的生產成本。生產成本主要是由於材料和運費增加以及間接費用增加所致。

Now let's take a look at our 2022 Construction & Forestry industry outlook on Slide 10. Industry sales of earthmoving equipment in North America are expected to be up approximately 10%, while the compact construction market is forecasted to be flat to down 5%. Though demand remains strong for compact construction products, the downward revision reflects extremely low levels of inventory and supply challenges constraining shipments. End markets for earthmoving are expected to remain strong as oil and gas activities remain steady, U.S. infrastructure spend begins to ramp and CapEx programs from the independent rental companies drive re-fleeting efforts. Housing starts have moderated though still remain elevated versus historical levels. Additionally, record low levels of new and used equipment will dampen any slowdown.

現在讓我們在幻燈片 10 上看一下我們的 2022 年建築和林業行業展望。北美土方設備的行業銷售額預計將增長約 10%，而緊湊型建築市場預計將持平至下降 5%。儘管對緊湊型建築產品的需求仍然強勁，但向下修正反映了極低的庫存水平和限制出貨量的供應挑戰。隨著石油和天然氣活動保持穩定、美國基礎設施支出開始增加以及獨立租賃公司的資本支出計劃推動重新調整工作，預計土方工程的終端市場將保持強勁。房屋開工有所放緩，但仍高於歷史水平。此外，創紀錄的低水平新舊設備將抑制任何放緩。

In Forestry, we now expect the industry to be flat to down 5%, primarily due to supply constraining the ability to meet demand. Global roadbuilding markets are expected to be flat to up 5%. Roadbuilding demand remains strongest in the Americas while China and Russia markets are down significantly. The C&F segment is on Slide 11. Deere's Construction & Forestry 2022 net sales are forecasted to be up around 10%. Our net sales guidance for the year includes about 10 points of positive price realization and 3 points of negative currency impact. The segment's operating margin outlook remains at a range of 15.5% to 16.5%.

在林業方面，我們現在預計該行業將持平至下降 5%，這主要是由於供應限制了滿足需求的能力。全球道路建設市場預計將持平至增長 5%。美洲的道路建設需求依然強勁，而中國和俄羅斯市場則大幅下滑。 C&F 部分位於幻燈片 11。迪爾的建築和林業 2022 年淨銷售額預計將增長約 10%。我們今年的淨銷售額指引包括約 10 個正價格實現點和 3 個負貨幣影響點。該部門的營業利潤率前景保持在 15.5% 至 16.5% 的範圍內。

Shifting over to our Financial Services operations on Slide 12. Worldwide Financial Services net income attributable to Deere & Company in the third quarter was $209 million. This is a slight decrease compared to the third quarter last year due to unfavorable discrete income tax adjustments, a higher provision for credit losses and lower gains on operating lease residual values. These were partially offset by income earned on a higher average portfolio. For fiscal year '22, we maintain our net income outlook at $870 million, slightly lower than fiscal year '21 due to a higher provision for credit losses, less favorable financing spreads and higher SA&G. The higher provisions for credit losses are primarily related to Russia. The segment is expected to continue to benefit from income earned on higher average portfolio balance. Overall, Financial Services continues to deliver steady results. Credit loss provisions, lease return rates and past dues are all in good shape, reflecting the solid balance sheet for our customers.

在幻燈片 12 上轉到我們的金融服務業務。第三季度歸屬於迪爾公司的全球金融服務淨收入為 2.09 億美元。由於不利的離散所得稅調整、較高的信用損失準備金和較低的經營租賃殘值收益，與去年第三季度相比略有下降。這些被較高的平均投資組合所賺取的收入部分抵消。對於 22 財年，我們將淨收入前景維持在 8.7 億美元，略低於 21 財年，原因是信貸損失準備金增加、融資利差降低以及 SA&G 更高。較高的信用損失準備金主要與俄羅斯有關。預計該部門將繼續受益於較高的平均投資組合餘額所賺取的收入。總體而言，金融服務繼續取得穩定的業績。信用損失準備金、租賃回報率和過去會費都處於良好狀態，反映了我們客戶穩健的資產負債表。

Slide 13 outlines our guidance for net income, our effective tax rate and operating cash flow. For fiscal year '22, we adjusted our outlook for net income to be between $7 billion and $7.2 billion. The full year forecast is inclusive of the impact of higher raw material prices, higher logistics costs and production inefficiencies caused by supply disruptions. Our forecasted price realization is expected to outpace both material and freight costs for the entire year.

幻燈片 13 概述了我們對淨收入、有效稅率和經營現金流的指導。對於 22 財年，我們將淨收入預期調整為 70 億美元至 72 億美元之間。全年預測包括原材料價格上漲、物流成本上漲和供應中斷導致的生產效率低下的影響。我們預測的價格實現預計將超過全年的材料和運費成本。

Moving on to tax. Our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate projected to be between 21% and 23%. Lastly, cash flow from the equipment operations is now expected to be in the range of $5.3 billion to $5.5 billion. The decrease reflects the adjusted income forecast and increases in working capital required through the end of the fiscal year as we expect to maintain higher production levels heading into the first quarter of 2023.

繼續稅收。我們的指導包含預計在 21% 至 23% 之間的有效稅率。最後，設備業務的現金流現在預計在 53 億至 55 億美元之間。下降反映了調整後的收入預測和截至本財年末所需營運資金的增加，因為我們預計到 2023 年第一季度將保持較高的生產水平。

At this time, let's discuss a few topics for the quarter in more detail. First, I would like to take a closer look at Production & Precision Ag's third quarter results, an impressive jump in net sales, both compared to the third quarter last year as well as compared to the second quarter this year. Net sales were up 43% year-over-year and up 19% sequentially, which is not our typical seasonality. Cory, can you talk through some of the factors that enabled us to achieve that?

此時，讓我們更詳細地討論本季度的一些主題。首先，我想仔細看看 Production & Precision Ag 的第三季度業績，與去年第三季度和今年第二季度相比，淨銷售額有了驚人的增長。淨銷售額同比增長 43%，環比增長 19%，這不是我們典型的季節性。 Cory，你能談談使我們能夠實現這一目標的一些因素嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Rachel. There's really several contributing factors this quarter. First is higher production rates. If you look back at the first half of this year, we had a work stoppage in the first quarter and had to ramp up at several of our largest U.S. factories. We also had 2 new product introductions, the 9R 4-drive tractor and the X9 combine. During the third quarter, we ramped up and we achieved our highest production line rates yet this year across several large ag factories.

是的。謝謝，雷切爾。本季度確實有幾個促成因素。首先是更高的生產率。如果你回顧今年上半年，我們在第一季度停工，不得不在我們美國最大的幾家工廠進行產能提升。我們還推出了 2 個新產品，即 9R 4 驅動拖拉機和 X9 聯合收割機。在第三季度，我們加快了速度，並在幾家大型農業工廠中實現了今年以來最高的生產線速度。

Second, as we started to ramp up through the second quarter, we continued to experience supply challenges, resulting in higher partially completed machines in inventory. We've procured the needed parts and made good progress in both finishing and shipping machines, reducing the number of partially completed machines in inventory. Now we did see overall inventories build slightly again in the third quarter, but that was mostly attributable to higher levels of raw inventory as we expect to maintain higher production rates, both through the fourth quarter and into Q1 of '23, which is different from our typical production wind-down in the fourth quarter.

其次，隨著我們在第二季度開始增長，我們繼續面臨供應挑戰，導致庫存中部分完成的機器增加。我們已經採購了所需的零件，並且在精加工和運輸機器方面都取得了良好的進展，減少了庫存中部分完成的機器數量。現在我們確實看到第三季度整體庫存再次略有增加，但這主要是由於原材料庫存水平較高，因為我們預計在第四季度和 23 年第一季度都將保持較高的生產率，這與我們通常在第四季度停止生產。

It's important to note, we're focused on not adding more partially completed machines to inventory. We're making progress completing that inventory and getting it delivered to our dealers and customers. We've also been able to increase our parts inventory, which is helping us as we go into the fall to support our customers and their operations.

需要注意的是，我們專注於不將更多部分完成的機器添加到庫存中。我們正在完成庫存並將其交付給我們的經銷商和客戶。我們還能夠增加我們的零件庫存，這有助於我們進入秋季以支持我們的客戶及其運營。

Going back to the higher production rates and even the partially completed inventory, we're seeing some modest improvement in the supply base. But overall, it's still very fragile and deliveries are still choppy.

回到更高的生產率甚至部分完成的庫存，我們看到供應基礎有所改善。但總體而言，它仍然非常脆弱，交付仍然不穩定。

Yes, that's right. We continue to prioritize getting equipment out to our customers. While past due deliveries from suppliers have declined a bit, they're still at elevated levels. Missing parts and late part deliveries result in rework to complete partially built machines and contribute to production inefficiencies and higher overhead costs. We're able to achieve the higher line rates despite the continued difficulties and constraints within the supply chain. We're proactively working with our supply base to obtain allocations and improve on-time deliveries of parts, looking for opportunities to dual-source or providing resources to address constraints. Again, all so we can get equipment out to our dealers and customers.

是的，這是正確的。我們繼續優先向客戶提供設備。儘管供應商的逾期交貨量有所下降，但仍處於較高水平。缺少零件和延遲交付零件會導致返工以完成部分製造的機器，並導致生產效率低下和間接成本增加。儘管供應鏈中持續存在困難和限制，我們仍能夠實現更高的生產線速度。我們正在積極與我們的供應基地合作，以獲得分配並改善零件的準時交付，尋找雙源的機會或提供資源來解決限制。同樣，所有這些都是為了我們可以將設備提供給我們的經銷商和客戶。

This is Josh. Maybe one thing to add. As Cory mentioned, we've been focused on producing at higher levels in order to get products to customers, which has resulted in higher costs related to supply availability, inflationary pressures, overhead inefficiencies. So maybe for example, we've incurred expedited freight and experienced production inefficiencies. Expedited freight comes at a premium.

這是喬什。也許要補充一件事。正如 Cory 所提到的，我們一直專注於更高水平的生產，以便將產品交付給客戶，這導致與供應可用性、通貨膨脹壓力、間接費用效率低下相關的成本增加。因此，例如，我們可能會加快貨運速度並經歷生產效率低下的情況。加急運費非常昂貴。

And any time we have to touch machines or move them in our factories more than once, it comes at a cost. In that respect, 2022 has been a challenge, given the ramp in demand juxtaposed with the lost production in the first quarter and a challenging supply environment. So we've really been chasing production all year as a result.

任何時候我們不得不在我們的工廠中多次觸摸或移動機器，這是有代價的。在這方面，2022 年一直是一個挑戰，因為需求的增加與第一季度的產量損失並存，而且供應環境充滿挑戰。因此，我們真的一整年都在追逐生產。

Importantly, we're seeing the benefit of getting those products in the hands of our customers reflected in market share and retail statistics. So we feel like we're broadly outperforming the industry. As we look forward, we'll build at higher levels of production in Q4 and into 1Q '23, which will help with our inefficiencies while also taking actions on costs that we've incurred over the last few years.

重要的是，我們看到將這些產品交到客戶手中的好處反映在市場份額和零售統計數據中。所以我們覺得我們的表現普遍優於行業。正如我們所期待的那樣，我們將在第四季度和 23 年第一季度建立更高水平的生產，這將有助於解決我們的低效率問題，同時也對我們在過去幾年中產生的成本採取行動。

Yes, all good points, Josh. You both now mentioned higher production rates achieved during the third quarter are expected to carry forward. It's too early to guide for fiscal year 2023, but let's spend a little more time there. Cory, can you share some insights from our customers' perspective to provide some context as we look ahead?

是的，所有優點，喬希。你們現在都提到第三季度實現的更高生產率預計將繼續推進。現在指導 2023 財年還為時過早，但讓我們多花點時間。 Cory，您能否從我們的客戶的角度分享一些見解，為我們展望未來提供一些背景信息？

Sure. Overall, ag fundamentals remain really strong. Corn and soy prices have declined from a few months ago but so have inputs like fertilizer and others. Also when you look at global stocks to use, it's tight and it's expected to decline again, continuing to support elevated crop prices. It may also take a couple of seasons to recover those grain stocks to normal levels. So while profitability may come in a bit from record '22 levels, our customers will still be profitable, and the environment is supportive of replacement demand especially when you consider that farmers haven't been able to replenish their fleets as much as they wanted to this year. The age of the fleet remains above average. Additionally, dealer inventories remain at historic lows since the industry shorted demand the last couple of years due to supply constraints. These factors should help extend the duration of the replacement cycle.

當然。總體而言，農業基本面仍然非常強勁。玉米和大豆價格較幾個月前有所下降，但化肥等投入品價格也有所下降。此外，當您查看要使用的全球庫存時，它很緊張，預計將再次下降，繼續支撐高漲的農作物價格。可能還需要幾個季節才能將這些糧食庫存恢復到正常水平。因此，雖然盈利能力可能會比 22 年的創紀錄水平有所提高，但我們的客戶仍然會盈利，而且環境支持更換需求，尤其是當您考慮到農民無法像他們想要的那樣補充他們的船隊時今年。船隊的年齡仍然高於平均水平。此外，由於供應限制，過去幾年該行業縮短了需求，經銷商庫存仍處於歷史低位。這些因素應該有助於延長更換週期的持續時間。

And how has that been factoring into our crop care early order book that opened in June, so sprayers and planters?

這對我們於 6 月開放的作物護理早期訂單簿（噴霧器和播種機）有何影響？

As you may recall from last year, we basically filled the full year production in the first phase of the EOP. We didn't do a second or third phase like we've done in the past. Then with the work stoppage and supply challenges, we've delivered a portion of those orders after their seasonal use this year. So this year's program is structured differently with 2 phases, both of which are on allocation. These phases are only intended to source orders for pre-seasonal use deliveries. We'll run yet another phase later for post-seasonal shipments. So year-over-year, EOP results won't be comparable due to the different structures we're running this year versus last.

您可能還記得去年，我們在 EOP 的第一階段基本上填滿了全年的生產。我們沒有像過去那樣進行第二或第三階段。然後，由於停工和供應挑戰，我們在今年季節性使用後交付了部分訂單。所以今年的計劃結構不同，分為兩個階段，兩個階段都在分配中。這些階段僅用於為季節性使用交付採購訂單。稍後我們將再進行一個階段以進行季後發貨。因此，由於我們今年與去年運行的結構不同，EOP 結果將無法與去年同期相比。

And how about tractors?

那麼拖拉機呢？

We're also sold ahead on tractors well into the second quarter next year. And our new and used inventories for all large tractors are sitting at multiyear lows with products like the 9R tractor going through both the work stoppage and new product transition. The momentum for all large tractors coming out of the third quarter on production rates will carry forward through the fourth quarter and well into next year. Demand is strong and still outstripping supply in 2023. Bottom line, we fully expect to produce more large ag equipment next year than we did this year.

明年第二季度，我們的拖拉機也提前售出。我們所有大型拖拉機的新舊庫存都處於多年低位，9R 拖拉機等產品經歷了停工和新產品過渡。第三季度所有大型拖拉機的生產率增長勢頭將延續到第四季度並持續到明年。需求強勁，到 2023 年仍將供不應求。底線是，我們完全預計明年將生產比今年更多的大型農業設備。

Yes. And let me add that these expectations around higher production rates are reflected in our revised cash flow outlook for this year, which we lowered a little bit due to increased working capital. We don't plan to see our normal seasonal reduction in inventory. And to help offset some of the supply challenges and maintain the higher production rates through the fourth quarter and into the next year, we're carrying a little bit more raw inventory heading out of 2022.

是的。讓我補充一點，這些對更高生產率的預期反映在我們修訂後的今年現金流展望中，由於營運資金增加，我們略微降低了這一預期。我們不打算看到我們正常的季節性庫存減少。為了幫助抵消一些供應挑戰並在第四季度和明年保持較高的生產率，我們將在 2022 年之後攜帶更多的原材料庫存。

Thanks, Brent. That is important to note. The inventory increases are not replacing partially completed inventory but increasing raw inventory as we prepare for that continued higher production rate. This is different than what we've seen seasonally in the past. So Cory, before we move on, what are we seeing on take rates in the model year '23 early order programs?

謝謝，布倫特。值得注意的是。庫存增加並沒有取代部分完成的庫存，而是增加了原材料庫存，因為我們為持續提高的生產率做準備。這與我們過去看到的季節性不同。所以科里，在我們繼續之前，我們在“23 年模型年”早期訂單計劃中看到了什麼？

Yes, it's good across the board. Customers are seeing the value and technology in the advanced solutions that we're offering. We saw increases in take rates for ExactEmerge on our planters to nearly 60%, and ExactApply for sprayers jumped over 10 points to 65% take rate. Tech products like our premium activations for tractors and sprayers are nearing 100% adoption by our customers.

是的，這一切都很好。客戶正在看到我們提供的先進解決方案的價值和技術。我們看到在我們的播種機上使用 ExactEmerge 的使用率增加到近 60%，而用於噴霧器的 ExactApply 的使用率躍升了 10 個百分點以上，達到 65%。我們的拖拉機和噴霧器高級激活等科技產品已接近 100% 的客戶採用。

Great, thank you. Now I'd like to spend some time on the industry outlook. U.S. and Canada large ag is projected to be up about 10 -- about 15% on a unit basis. It's been a common theme across the industry. AEM retail data is choppy month-to-month and by product and impacted by when the products are able to get shipped, so less reflective of demand right now. Our model year '23 order books reflect that, too. Demand has remained resilient as ag fundamentals remained positive. We've been able to ship more product in the third quarter and are forecasting to outpace the industry for full year, indicating some market share gains in the U.S. and Canada large ag space. Cory, what about Europe?

太好了謝謝。現在我想花點時間談談行業前景。美國和加拿大的大型股份公司預計將上漲約 10 - 以單位計算約 15%。這是整個行業的共同主題。 AEM 零售數據逐月波動，按產品劃分，並受到產品何時能夠發貨的影響，因此目前的需求反映較少。我們的 23 年車型訂單也反映了這一點。由於農業基本面保持樂觀，需求保持彈性。我們已經能夠在第三季度出貨更多產品，並預計全年將超過該行業，這表明美國和加拿大大型農業領域的市場份額有所增長。科里，歐洲呢？

Yes, Europe is another region where demand continues to outpace what the industry can supply. The industry has seen a lot of production challenges in Europe due to supply chain issues, geopolitical events and other disruptions as well. It's the same story of partially completed machines waiting for parts or even, in some cases, completed machines just waiting on an outbound truck. For us though, despite all of that, Europe has remained a bright spot. The team has executed really well. We've been outperforming the industry, so we're on track to grow high-horsepower tractor, combine and SPFH share there as well.

是的，歐洲是另一個需求繼續超過行業供應的地區。由於供應鏈問題、地緣政治事件和其他中斷，該行業在歐洲面臨許多生產挑戰。這與部分完成的機器等待零件的故事相同，在某些情況下，甚至完成的機器只是在等待出站卡車。儘管如此，對我們來說，歐洲仍然是一個亮點。球隊執行得非常好。我們的表現一直優於行業，因此我們有望在那裡發展大馬力拖拉機、聯合收割機和 SPFH 份額。

And what about South America?

那麼南美洲呢？

We're seeing strong profitability for our customers and strong market demand, which has outpaced industry production in 2022, particularly in Brazil, where we're releasing production monthly to maintain tight controls between inflation and pricing. And we're seeing our calendars fill up within hours of releasing them. We fully expect this strong demand cycle in Brazil will continue in 2023.

我們看到客戶的強勁盈利能力和強勁的市場需求，這已經超過了 2022 年的行業產量，尤其是在巴西，我們每月都會釋放產量，以保持通脹和價格之間的嚴格控制。我們看到我們的日曆在發布後的幾個小時內就被填滿了。我們完全預計巴西的強勁需求週期將在 2023 年繼續。

On top of that, our precision ag engagement in the region also continues to accelerate. South America is experiencing the fastest growth in engaged acres of anywhere in the world. And technologies such as ExactEmerge are accelerating across the region. Historically, we've had an objective to put South American profitability on par with Region IV. We're now meeting and exceeding that goal.

最重要的是，我們在該地區的精準農業參與度也在繼續加快。南美洲正在經歷世界上任何地方的參與面積增長最快。 ExactEmerge 等技術正在整個地區加速發展。從歷史上看，我們的目標是將南美的盈利能力與第四區相提並論。我們現在正在達到並超越這一目標。

Great. Thanks, Cory. I think that's helpful insight to how our net sales guides reconcile to the industry guides. Our net sales guide includes not only higher price but also stronger volumes and higher take rates of precision ag solutions. Brent, what about Small Ag & Turf? The industry is expected to be flat compared to our net sales guide of up 10% to 15%.

偉大的。謝謝，科里。我認為這有助於了解我們的淨銷售額指南如何與行業指南相協調。我們的淨銷售指南不僅包括更高的價格，還包括更強勁的銷量和更高的精準農業解決方案採用率。布倫特，Small Ag & Turf 怎麼樣？與我們的淨銷售額指引增長 10% 至 15% 相比，該行業預計將持平。

Yes, I think we really need to parse it out a little bit. If we look at the parts of our business that are linked to the ag economy like midsized tractors versus consumer products like compact utility tractors, there's different stories going on there.

是的，我認為我們確實需要稍微分析一下。如果我們看看與農業經濟相關的業務部分，例如中型拖拉機與消費產品（例如緊湊型多功能拖拉機），就會發現不同的故事。

First, with midsized tractors linked more to hay and forage markets, livestock and dairy margins, they've all remained pretty steady. High protein and dairy prices have helped offset some of the higher feed and input costs that we're seeing.

首先，由於中型拖拉機更多地與乾草和草料市場、牲畜和乳製品的利潤聯繫在一起，它們都保持相當穩定。高蛋白質和乳製品價格幫助抵消了我們看到的一些較高的飼料和投入成本。

So we do see continued demand for our products like the 6 Series tractors, and this is a positive contributor in terms of our mix for Small Ag & Turf. On the other hand, consumer products are beginning to soften as they are more closely linked to the general economy. So equipment inventory -- so while equipment inventories remain well below normal levels, they're starting to see a rise a little bit for small tractors. So we're monitoring these inventory levels closely. But restocking the channel should moderate slowing in the retail demand that we're seeing, especially in turf, which hasn't seen much of any increase in inventories just yet.

因此，我們確實看到對我們的產品（如 6 系列拖拉機）的持續需求，這對我們的 Small Ag & Turf 組合而言是一個積極的貢獻。另一方面，消費品開始走軟，因為它們與整體經濟的聯繫更加緊密。所以設備庫存——雖然設備庫存仍遠低於正常水平，但小型拖拉機的庫存開始略有上升。因此，我們正在密切監控這些庫存水平。但是，重新進貨渠道應該會緩和我們所看到的零售需求放緩，特別是在草皮上，目前庫存還沒有增加太多。

Thanks. I touched on C&F industry outlook earlier. Josh, anything to add for C&F?

謝謝。我之前談到了 C&F 行業前景。喬希，C&F 有什麼要補充的嗎？

Sure. In North America, while we're seeing indicators of housing moderate a bit, earthmoving and roadbuilding are helped by steady oil and gas and the U.S. infrastructure beginning to ramp up. In fact, in North America, it's really been a bright spot for roadbuilding. China and Russia are down for roadbuilding, and we're beginning to see some softening in Europe, but North America is offsetting much of that. And that mix is contributing to some really good margins for roadbuilding, which are the best we've seen since the acquisition.

當然。在北美，雖然我們看到住房指標略有放緩，但穩定的石油和天然氣以及美國的基礎設施開始增加對土方工程和道路建設的幫助。事實上，在北美，它確實是道路建設的一個亮點。中國和俄羅斯在道路建設方面處於不利地位，我們開始看到歐洲有所放緩，但北美正在抵消其中的大部分。這種組合為道路建設帶來了一些非常好的利潤，這是我們自收購以來看到的最好的利潤。

Thanks, Josh. Raj, before we transition to the Q&A portion, any summary comments?

謝謝，喬希。 Raj，在我們過渡到問答部分之前，有什麼總結性評論嗎？

Sure, Rachel. A few things. First, I want to acknowledge the extraordinary efforts by our production and operations employees to ramp up factory output while finishing and shipping a portion of the partially completed inventory while continuing to manage through supply challenges. The dedication to getting products to our customers is just phenomenal.

當然，雷切爾。一些東西。首先，我要感謝我們的生產和運營員工為提高工廠產量而做出的非凡努力，同時完成和運送部分完成的庫存，同時繼續應對供應挑戰。為我們的客戶提供產品的奉獻精神是非凡的。

Yes, through the third quarter, we continued to see elevated costs and production inefficiencies, but we also demonstrated higher line rates and those rates will continue through the fourth quarter and into next fiscal year to meet customer demand. Next, I want to highlight the $1.2 billion of shares we repurchased during the third quarter. It's a testament to our use of cash philosophy. We will continue to be proactive with buybacks and opportunistic with volatility in the market.

是的，到第三季度，我們繼續看到成本上升和生產效率低下，但我們也展示了更高的生產線速度，這些速度將持續到第四季度和下一財年，以滿足客戶需求。接下來，我想強調一下我們在第三季度回購的 12 億美元股票。這證明了我們使用現金哲學。我們將繼續積極進行回購，並在市場波動時投機取巧。

As we look ahead, we plan to continue the momentum we built during the third quarter into the fourth quarter and beyond, which continue to be dependent on supply chain performance. As Josh mentioned, we are taking steps to reduce the impact of a persistently volatile supply chain, allowing us to focus on improving production inefficiencies and managing material costs as we pivot to 2023. Demand remains strong in multiple end markets, and we continue to see strong demand for our technologies and precision solutions. Finally, through our smart industrial strategy and execution of our Leap Ambitions, we will continue to unlock more value for our customers, leaving our best years still to come.

展望未來，我們計劃將第三季度建立的勢頭延續到第四季度及以後，這將繼續依賴於供應鏈的表現。正如喬希所說，我們正在採取措施減少持續波動的供應鏈的影響，使我們能夠在轉向 2023 年時專注於改善生產效率低下和管理材料成本。多個終端市場的需求仍然強勁，我們繼續看到對我們的技術和精密解決方案的強烈需求。最後，通過我們明智的產業戰略和我們的跨越式雄心的執行，我們將繼續為我們的客戶釋放更多價值，讓我們最好的歲月還在後面。

Now we are ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call. The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure. (Operator Instructions) Operator?

現在我們準備開始電話的問答部分。接線員將指導您進行輪詢程序。 （操作員說明）操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Tim Thein with Citigroup.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Tim Thein。

There's good discussion in terms of the line rights and the build plans in the near term for large ag. Can we maybe just think about or talk a bit about what pricing may look like, obviously, coming from a high base this year? But given what's already been announced in the spring EOP and then some of the model year tractor increases that you've announced, maybe just share some high-level thoughts around the pricing for PPA. I know a lot goes into that equation but maybe just some framework to help us think about the pricing opportunity for '23.

關於大型股份公司近期的生產線權利和建設計劃進行了很好的討論。我們是否可以考慮或談論一下定價可能會是什麼樣子，很明顯，來自今年的高基數？但鑑於春季 EOP 中已經宣布的內容以及您宣布的一些車型年拖拉機增加，也許只是分享一些關於 PPA 定價的高級想法。我知道這個等式有很多內容，但也許只是一些框架來幫助我們考慮 23 年的定價機會。

Yes. Regarding pricing for 2023, it's still a little bit early. We don't have a formal price realization guide out there. We do have some early order programs and some rolling order books that are extending well into next year, so we do have some list prices out there. For large ag, we're seeing list price increases in the high single digits to low double digits, depending a bit on the product line. Moving to Construction & Forestry, we're looking at more kind of mid- to high single digits in terms of list price increases year-over-year. As I noted, it's still early and those aren't to be confused with price realization forecasts for '23, but at least that's how our order books are shaping out at this point.

是的。關於 2023 年的定價，現在還為時過早。我們沒有正式的價格實現指南。我們確實有一些提前訂購計劃和一些滾動訂購書，這些訂購書可以很好地延續到明年，所以我們確實有一些標價。對於大型股份公司，我們看到標價從高個位數到低兩位數上漲，這在一定程度上取決於產品線。轉向建築和林業，就標價同比增長而言，我們正在尋找更多的中高個位數。正如我所指出的，現在還為時過早，不要將這些與 23 年的價格實現預測相混淆，但至少我們的訂單在這一點上是這樣形成的。

Our next question comes from Tami Zakaria.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tami Zakaria。

So looking at the Production & Precision Ag segment, it seems like you're expecting sequential sales growth, call it, in the mid-single-digit range, sequentially in the fourth quarter. But the operating profit seems to be growing around 30% sequentially to get to your full year guide. So can you help us understand what would be driving this high incremental margin of about 50% in the segment in the fourth quarter?

因此，看看生產和精密農業部門，您似乎預計第四季度的連續銷售增長，稱之為中個位數範圍。但營業利潤似乎連續增長約 30% 以達到您的全年指南。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解是什麼推動了第四季度該細分市場約 50% 的高增量利潤率？

Yes, sure. Thanks, Tami, for the question. With respect to our fourth quarter implied guide, I think there's a lot of moving parts in there. We will see some of our best cost compares in a year come in the fourth quarter, I think. Up until this point, the cost comparisons relative to last year have been more difficult. We'll start to see that abate a little bit as we anniversary some of the inflation that we began to see come in, in the third and fourth quarter last year. Incrementally, price is going to get a little bit better in the fourth quarter. That's going to help as well. And we will see a slight increase in line rates even from the third quarter. So between price, volume and anniversary-ing some of the cost inflation that we saw last year, that does point to a higher margin profile for us in the fourth quarter.

是的，當然。謝謝，塔米，這個問題。關於我們第四季度的隱含指南，我認為其中有很多活動部分。我認為，我們將在第四季度看到一年中的一些最佳成本比較。到目前為止，與去年相比，成本比較變得更加困難。隨著我們對去年第三季度和第四季度開始看到的一些通貨膨脹進行週年紀念，我們將開始看到這種情況有所減弱。逐漸地，第四季度的價格會有所好轉。這也會有所幫助。即使從第三季度開始，我們也會看到線路費率略有增加。因此，在我們去年看到的一些成本膨脹的價格、數量和周年紀念之間，這確實表明我們在第四季度的利潤率更高。

Our next question comes from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自克里斯汀歐文和奧本海默。

If we think about some of the longer-term contracts that you've talked about on the supply side, clearly, today, that's oriented around getting priority on components. But I'm just wondering how we should think about the margin impact of those contracts on a go-forward basis. If we were to start to see supply chains normalize, how would that influence your long-term margin outlook?

如果我們考慮一下您在供應方面談到的一些長期合同，很明顯，今天，這是圍繞著優先考慮組件。但我只是想知道我們應該如何考慮這些合同對利潤的影響。如果我們開始看到供應鏈正常化，這將如何影響您的長期利潤率前景？

Regarding this supply chain, there's -- I mean, there are really a myriad of things that we are working on proactively to manage the supply base. Kristen, you named one of many levers that we're pulling. For some certain critical components, we have signed some long-term contracts. I would say for other parts of the supply base, we're working on other strategies as well. Dual-sourcing, also a very viable strategy for us in the short and midterm.

關於這個供應鏈，有 - 我的意思是，我們正在積極開展大量工作來管理供應基礎。克里斯汀，你提到了我們正在拉動的眾多槓桿之一。對於某些關鍵部件，我們簽訂了一些長期合同。我想說，對於供應基地的其他部分，我們也在製定其他策略。雙重採購，在短期和中期對我們來說也是一個非常可行的策略。

For some of our suppliers, we're investing in additional machinery capacity. So it's really a multipronged approach for us and requiring a lot of day-to-day management. And we do foresee that day-to-day management of the supply chain continuing really for the foreseeable future. And so -- but with respect to the long-term contracts, as you noted, we're very mindful of the prices that we're committing to and the volumes that we're underwriting. And like I said, we've really limited that to the parts of supply base that are critical and where most necessary.

對於我們的一些供應商，我們正在投資增加機械產能。所以這對我們來說確實是一種多管齊下的方法，需要大量的日常管理。我們確實預見到供應鏈的日常管理在可預見的未來會繼續進行。所以 - 但就長期合同而言，正如你所指出的，我們非常注意我們承諾的價格和我們承保的數量。就像我說的那樣，我們確實將其限制在關鍵和最必要的供應基地部分。

Kristen, this is Josh. Maybe one thing to add. I mean, those types of things are also contemplated as we think about how we're pricing for the upcoming year. So those are definitely part of the equation.

克里斯汀，這是喬希。也許要補充一件事。我的意思是，當我們考慮如何為來年定價時，也會考慮這些類型的事情。所以這些絕對是等式的一部分。

Kristen, this is Cory. The only thing I would add is if you think about the third quarter, what we've been doing is we've been getting the supply base to prove out that it can perform at the line rates we have, in addition, put additional material that allows us to clean up some of that unfinished inventory.

克里斯汀，這是科里。我唯一要補充的是，如果您考慮第三季度，我們一直在做的是我們一直在讓供應基地證明它可以按照我們現有的生產線速度運行，此外，還提供了額外的材料這使我們能夠清理一些未完成的庫存。

As we look at our production schedules going forward, that gives us higher confidence that we're going to be able to run those line levels consistently and into the first quarter. That gives us a tremendous amount of confidence in how we think about all the additional costs that go into securing, expediting, all the things that happen that result -- rework that results in a drag on margin.

當我們審視我們未來的生產計劃時，這讓我們更有信心，我們將能夠始終如一地運行這些生產線水平並進入第一季度。這給了我們極大的信心，讓我們對如何考慮所有額外成本的方式來確保、加快所有發生的事情——導致利潤拖累的返工。

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

Understanding inventory was -- and welcome back, Raj, to the earnings call. But understanding inventories were higher more so because of raw, can you help us understand how much of the $1 billion of unfinished products we got out the door from second quarter, so what's in Q3 versus Q4? And then your commentary on production into 2021, the first quarter being strong, it's interesting. Wondering if we should assume, obviously, production at high levels all year like from the first quarter run rate basis and whether you expect to fill a replenished channel inventory in 2023?

了解庫存是 - 歡迎回來，Raj，參加財報電話會議。但是，由於原材料的原因，庫存更高，您能否幫助我們了解我們從第二季度開始出貨的 10 億美元未成品中有多少，那麼第三季度與第四季度的情況是什麼？然後你對 2021 年生產的評論，第一季度強勁，這很有趣。想知道我們是否應該假設，顯然，從第一季度的運行率基礎開始，全年產量都處於高水平，以及您是否希望在 2023 年填補補充的渠道庫存？

Yes. I'll start on the inventory question. The increase in inventory that we saw sequentially from the second quarter was really more raw, as we noted, a little less WIP and more parts inventory as well. And I think -- and that reflects our strategy to continue with kind of high line rates coming out of the fourth quarter, so it's really a sign of a positive outlook for next year.

是的。我將從庫存問題開始。正如我們所指出的，從第二季度開始，我們看到的庫存增加實際上更加原始，WIP 減少了一點，零件庫存也增加了。而且我認為 - 這反映了我們在第四季度繼續保持高線路費率的戰略，因此這確實是明年前景樂觀的跡象。

With respect to the level of -- or the number of partially completed machines that we have coming out of the second quarter, we made great progress on reducing the number of machines. Roughly about 1/3, we were able to work through over the third quarter, which will leave us with some inventory left for next quarter. Importantly, the number of machines that we still have held as partially completed inventory, for the most part, we're looking at machines that only need 1 or 2 parts before they're ready to ship and retail to customers. So for the machines that needed more significant rework, those were some of the machines that we worked our way through in the third quarter, which gives us a little more confidence as we look at fourth quarter line rates and our revenue guide.

關於我們從第二季度出來的部分完成機器的水平或數量，我們在減少機器數量方面取得了很大進展。大約 1/3 左右，我們能夠在第三季度完成工作，這將使我們為下個季度留下一些庫存。重要的是，我們仍然持有部分完成庫存的機器數量，在大多數情況下，我們正在尋找只需要 1 或 2 個零件就可以發貨和零售給客戶的機器。因此，對於需要更多返工的機器，這些是我們在第三季度完成的一些機器，這讓我們在查看第四季度的生產線費率和我們的收入指南時更有信心。

Yes. I would say -- and Brent hit it, I mean if you look, we were averaging -- those machines that were coming off, first of all, we're taking them down, taking that inventory that's unfinished down. We also are averaging, in many cases, 10 to 12 run without. So parts -- significant parts that would have to be reworked, we're now down in low single digits and many of them just 1 part that's waiting or just 1 set of tires that's waiting. So significant progress, both in the number but also the amount of rework remaining on machines to ship.

是的。我會說——布倫特成功了，我的意思是，如果你看，我們正在平均——那些正在脫落的機器，首先，我們正在拆除它們，拆除未完成的庫存。在許多情況下，我們還平均運行 10 到 12 次。所以零件 - 必須返工的重要零件，我們現在以低個位數下降，其中許多只有一個正在等待的零件或只有一組正在等待的輪胎。如此顯著的進步，無論是在數量上，還是在要發貨的機器上剩餘的返工量上。

The other thing you asked about the first, you think about -- we actually were shut down at the front end based on what happened with our strike. And ultimately, this year, we just keep producing right through. We finish our '22 builds and go right into '23.

關於第一個問題，你想的另一件事——實際上，根據我們罷工發生的情況，我們在前端被關閉了。最終，今年，我們只是繼續生產。我們完成了 '22 構建並直接進入 '23。

Our next question comes from Dillon Cumming with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的狄龍卡明。

Really great to hear the uptake commentary from Cory with regards to the ExactApply, ExactEmerge uptake. Just curious if you can comment on See & Spray integration, whether or not you've been able to commercialize that more fully in the EOP rollout this year. And if you have, what level of kind of volume outlook is for next year as well?

很高興聽到 Cory 關於 ExactApply、ExactEmerge 吸收的吸收評論。只是好奇您是否可以對 See & Spray 集成發表評論，無論您是否能夠在今年的 EOP 推出中更充分地將其商業化。如果你有，明年的銷量前景是什麼水平？

With respect to See & Spray, this was our first year to commercialize it. We did so on a limited basis. 2023 will be our final year of limited production there. We want to make sure that we get it right, that we really calibrate on the right spec level and make sure that we're tooled up in the factory to go full production in 2024.

對於 See & Spray，這是我們將其商業化的第一年。我們是在有限的基礎上這樣做的。 2023 年將是我們在那裡限量生產的最後一年。我們想確保我們做對了，我們真的在正確的規格水平上進行校準，並確保我們在工廠裡準備好在 2024 年全面投產。

I think we've actually learned quite a bit over the course of this limited production season. We've really learned what it takes to ensure that our customers are getting the outcomes that they expect when they use the tool. We've learned a lot about the acceptance of the per acre business model. And we'll be a little bit smarter as we head into next year and a little more dialed in with respect to the pricing and structure of our '23 offering.

我認為在這個有限的製作季節中，我們實際上學到了很多東西。我們已經真正了解瞭如何確保我們的客戶在使用該工具時獲得他們期望的結果。我們已經了解了很多關於接受每英畝商業模式的知識。隨著我們進入明年，我們會變得更聰明一點，並且在我們的 '23 產品的定價和結構方面更加熟悉。

No, I think Brent hit it well, and I'll just add. The big part of this was getting the product in the hands and really seeing customer value being driven by how they use the product. We can deliver all the technology, but we have to see how they're going to use it to help improve the outcomes, be able to do it, do more acres, do it with less material, improve their profitability and all of that's proving out. So we're sitting well as we go into the next limited production year, and then we'll open up and start delivering even more going forward.

不，我認為布倫特打得很好，我會補充一下。其中很大一部分是將產品拿到手中，並真正看到客戶價值是由他們如何使用產品所驅動的。我們可以提供所有技術，但我們必須看看他們將如何使用它來幫助改善結果，能夠做到這一點，做更多的土地，用更少的材料做，提高他們的盈利能力，所有這些都證明了出去。所以我們在進入下一個限量生產年時坐得很好，然後我們將開放並開始提供更多未來。

Our next question comes from Seth Weber with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Seth Weber。

I wanted to ask about Europe. I guess I was a little surprised that you're -- it sounds like you're still seeing Europe to be kind of hanging in flattish. I think you said demand was actually still pretty good there on the ag side. I mean, can you -- just given what's going on with the drought and just geopolitical stuff, can you just give us some additional color on what you're seeing maybe by some of the countries across Europe or just what you think is sustaining Europe farmer sentiment at this point?

我想問歐洲。我想我有點驚訝你——聽起來你仍然看到歐洲有點平淡無奇。我認為你說的需求實際上在農業方面仍然相當不錯。我的意思是，你能不能——考慮到干旱和地緣政治的情況，你能不能給我們一些額外的顏色，說明你在歐洲的一些國家看到的情況，或者你認為維持歐洲的情況農民情緒在這一點上？

Yes. Seth, thanks for the question. Regarding Europe, some of the flat retail data that you're seeing year-to-date is really a reflection of inability for the industry to get supply out there. I know there's been a lot of discrete issues with a lot of industry players this year in terms of production capabilities. We are seeing the overall market as remaining strong and steady. There is definitely differing weather patterns, depending on what part of Europe we're talking about. The Central -- Central Europe is faring a little bit better than Western Europe a little bit.

是的。賽斯，謝謝你的問題。關於歐洲，您今年迄今看到的一些平淡的零售數據確實反映了該行業無法在那裡獲得供應。我知道今年許多行業參與者在生產能力方面存在很多離散問題。我們認為整體市場保持強勁和穩定。肯定有不同的天氣模式，這取決於我們所談論的歐洲的哪個部分。中歐——中歐的情況比西歐好一點。

But overall, elevated wheat prices are largely offsetting some of the surging input prices that they've seen. Arable margins, the outlook will remain supportive for the rest of the year. As we pivot into the dairy and livestock sector there, fiscal year '22 margins were really better than expected from elevated dairy prices. Maybe a little bit of risk there on dairy margins going into next year, but overall, we've seen that market remain pretty steady. And again, the flat outlook for the year is really a reflection of production capabilities more so than any demand concerns that we have at this point.

但總體而言，小麥價格上漲在很大程度上抵消了他們看到的一些飆升的投入品價格。耕地利潤率，前景將在今年餘下時間保持支撐。隨著我們轉向那裡的乳製品和畜牧業，22財年的利潤率確實好於乳製品價格上漲的預期。進入明年的乳製品利潤率可能會有一點風險，但總的來說，我們已經看到市場保持相當穩定。再說一次，今年的平淡前景實際上比我們目前的任何需求擔憂更能反映生產能力。

Yes, this is Josh. I think one thing to continue to highlight there is we shifted our strategy a few years ago. We're much more focused on where we can differentiate through technology in Production & Precision Ag in particular and in the markets where that really speaks to driving value to customers. And so we're seeing a continuation, really, a third year of market share gains on high-horsepower tractors. And this year, we're seeing good movement in terms of share on combines. So the work that the team is doing from a strategic point of view as well as a lot of really good work with the dealer channel and focusing there is driving a lot of positive results for us.

是的，這是喬希。我認為要繼續強調的一件事是幾年前我們改變了戰略。我們更專注於我們可以通過生產和精密 Ag 技術實現差異化的地方，特別是在真正為客戶創造價值的市場中。因此，我們看到大馬力拖拉機的市場份額連續第三年增長。今年，我們在聯合收割機的份額方面看到了良好的走勢。因此，團隊從戰略角度所做的工作，以及與經銷商渠道的大量真正出色的合作，並專注於那裡，為我們帶來了很多積極的成果。

Our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

I had a short-term and a long-term question on R&D. The cadence of R&D ticked up in the quarter in the back half of the year. I'm wondering what happened to just shift your view on what needed to be spent. And then in general, I think you've gotten pretty good efficiency in R&D over the past couple of years. I'm wondering if the uptick in spending is an indication of the end of the road on that or new programs or if you just have general comments.

我有一個關於研發的短期和長期問題。今年後半季度，研發節奏加快。我想知道發生了什麼改變了你對需要花費的東西的看法。然後總的來說，我認為在過去的幾年裡，你們在研發方面取得了相當不錯的效率。我想知道支出的增加是否表明該計劃或新計劃的結束，或者您是否只是一般性評論。

Rob, thanks for the question. Regarding R&D for the year, we saw it tick up a little bit in the guidance and that really reflects just our ability to accelerate some projects faster than we had originally anticipated. So I think that's a positive note. I think longer term, the neighborhood that we're traveling in right now on R&D spend is about right, plus or minus 10% on maybe any given year.

羅布，謝謝你的問題。關於今年的研發，我們在指南中看到了它的一點點上升，這確實反映了我們加速某些項目的能力比我們最初預期的要快。所以我認為這是一個積極的消息。我認為從長遠來看，我們現在在研發支出上所處的社區大約是正確的，可能在任何一年都增加或減少 10%。

But the big step function change that we've seen this year, I think, really puts us in the right spot to execute on our Leap Ambitions and other targets for Production & Precision Ag and the other divisions as well.

但我認為，我們今年看到的大步函數變化確實讓我們處於正確的位置，可以執行我們的 Leap Ambitions 以及 Production & Precision Ag 和其他部門的其他目標。

Rob, it's Josh. Brent summed it up well. I think the continued focus in these areas where we feel like we can really differentiate and accelerate development of solutions that are going to unlock value and also be leverageable across our different businesses, so whether that's digitalization, electrification, automation and autonomy, those are the areas where we're seeing the biggest opportunities and where as we can and as we particularly bring on new talent, whether it be acquisition or other, we're accelerating development in those spaces.

羅布，是喬希。布倫特總結得很好。我認為繼續關注這些領域，我們認為我們可以真正區分和加速解決方案的開發，這些解決方案將釋放價值，也可以在我們不同的業務中利用，所以無論是數字化、電氣化、自動化和自治，這些都是我們看到了最大機會的領域，以及我們可以在哪些領域特別是引進新人才，無論是收購還是其他，我們都在加速這些領域的發展。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

I'm wondering if you could just talk about the guidance revision. So nice to see pricing accelerating and with the production costs, we've got margins coming down. So as we look at the impact of the inefficiencies, Josh, that you spoke about, it looks like based on the revision to guidance, there's about an $800 million incremental cost headwind versus 3 months ago. Is that all the inefficiencies of waiting for parts and moving machines around? Or how much of that is other incremental inflation as we think about what that picture looks like when things normalize?

我想知道你是否可以談談指導修訂。很高興看到定價加速和生產成本，我們的利潤率正在下降。因此，當我們查看您所說的效率低下的影響時，喬希，看起來根據對指導的修訂，與 3 個月前相比，增加了大約 8 億美元的成本逆風。這就是等待零件和移動機器的所有低效率嗎？或者當我們考慮事情正常化時的情況時，其中有多少是其他增量通脹？

Jerry, I think there's a lot of moving parts to the guidance in the back half of the quarter. I mean, really, what we saw in terms of the lowered guidance primarily related to increased material cost, freight and then excess overhead, which is coming from those supply disruptions that Josh noted about earlier. I mean, there's really a myriad of issues that affects that.

傑里，我認為本季度後半段的指導有很多變化。我的意思是，真的，我們在降低指導方面看到的主要與材料成本、運費和額外間接費用增加有關，這是由於喬希早些時候提到的那些供應中斷造成的。我的意思是，確實有無數的問題會影響到這一點。

Line rates may differ day-to-day. It makes it hard to optimize the workforce. We are doing more rework on partially completed machines, and that creates a lot of increased overhead. So those are really the primary factors that drove the guidance change for us in the back half of the year. We're already starting to think about what the cost structure will look like as we exit the year and start making plans and build rates and schedules for the next year.

線路費率可能每天都不同。這使得優化勞動力變得困難。我們正在對部分完成的機器進行更多的返工，這會增加很多開銷。因此，這些確實是推動我們在下半年改變指導方針的主要因素。我們已經開始考慮今年結束時成本結構會是什麼樣子，並開始製定明年的計劃和建造費率和時間表。

Jerry, this is Cory. Maybe I'll just use an example for you to give you an idea of how it's impacted us. If you took 2 of our largest units, Harvester Works and Waterloo, and you looked at the average over 3 years from '18 to '20 of what they spent in premium freight alone, so this is expedited freight and air freight, they just spent combined about $25 million. We're probably going to spend almost $200 million this year.

傑瑞，這是科里。也許我只是為您舉一個例子，讓您了解它對我們的影響。如果您選擇了我們最大的兩個單位，Harvester Works 和 Waterloo，然後您查看了從 18 年到 20 年 3 年期間他們僅在高級貨運上的平均花費，所以這是加急貨運和空運，他們只是花了合計約2500萬美元。今年我們可能會花費近 2 億美元。

Now we made a conscious decision that we wanted to drive customers to get their products as close to on time as we could. So we went to extraordinary efforts. That extraordinary number should not be there at the same level going forward. So our opportunity is we made the decision to spend to be able to fulfill customer demand. And it's shown up in what we've been able to ship. It will show up in our market share. But we need to drive -- our drive is to get that back out going forward as we get to more normalized production.

現在我們做出了一個有意識的決定，我們希望推動客戶盡可能準時地獲得他們的產品。所以我們付出了非凡的努力。這個非凡的數字在未來不應該處於同一水平。所以我們的機會是我們決定花錢來滿足客戶的需求。它體現在我們能夠交付的產品中。它將顯示在我們的市場份額中。但是我們需要推動——我們的推動是隨著我們實現更加正常化的生產而將其收回。

Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I mean, I can ask a lot of detailed questions, but I guess just stepping back, you're implying the fourth quarter earnings are about $7.25, $7.30. And then the most interesting thing I mean you've said is the lack of seasonality, right? Usually, the first quarter is a bit of a low quarter. Sounds like that's not the case. So I guess just to level set everybody, just trying to think to the pros and cons.

我的意思是，我可以問很多詳細的問題，但我想退後一步，你是在暗示第四季度的收益約為 7.25 美元，7.30 美元。然後我的意思是你說的最有趣的事情是缺乏季節性，對吧？通常，第一季度是一個低季度。聽起來情況並非如此。所以我想只是為了讓每個人都保持水平，只是想考慮一下利弊。

When we look at that fourth quarter, I can't just multiply it by 4 to say that's an annualized rate. But given the lack of seasonality you're talking about, there might be a better chance than normal to annualize that number. So can you help us a little bit with the pros and cons thinking about that fourth quarter number? Number one, is there something unique in that number that's making it that strong?

當我們看第四季度時，我不能把它乘以 4 就可以說這是一個年化率。但鑑於您所說的缺乏季節性，每年計算該數字的機會可能比正常情況要大。那麼，您能幫我們談談考慮第四季度數字的利弊嗎？第一，這個數字有什麼獨特之處使它如此強大嗎？

And then for '23, I mean, the pros and cons would be obviously, the pro would be hopefully more efficient production, just given some weaker parts of the economy, a little better improvement in chip availability. But then the cons might be just macro risk around Small Ag, maybe late in the year, Construction, we'll see. But obviously, you're speaking constructively about big ag for most of '23. So can you just help level set big picture, that fourth quarter number, something unique in it? And how to think about roughly annualizing that number?

然後對於'23，我的意思是，利弊很明顯，專業人士希望生產效率更高，只是考慮到經濟的一些較弱部分，芯片可用性的改善會更好一些。但缺點可能只是 Small Ag 周圍的宏觀風險，可能在今年晚些時候，建設，我們拭目以待。但顯然，在 23 年的大部分時間裡，你都是在建設性地談論大公司。所以你能幫助水平設置大圖，第四季度的數字，它有什麼獨特之處嗎？以及如何考慮將這個數字大致年化？

David, thanks for the question. As we think about the fourth quarter, it will not follow our typical seasonal pattern, as you pointed out. We do end up year-over-year with about 20% more production days in our large ag factories in North America. So that's really going to help us as we think about achieving our guidance for the quarter.

大衛，謝謝你的問題。正如您所指出的，當我們考慮第四季度時，它不會遵循我們典型的季節性模式。我們在北美的大型農業工廠的生產天數確實比去年同期增加了約 20%。因此，當我們考慮實現本季度的指導時，這真的會幫助我們。

We do still have some number of partially completed machines with good line of sight to clearing many of those over the fourth quarter. And then we are -- we do intend to take our line rates just a click higher from where we did and what we produced in the third quarter now. Most of the increase in line rate did happen in the third quarter, but we're going to go even -- a stretch higher in the fourth quarter. So it is going to give us a very different profile coming out of the year than maybe what you've typically expected or typically seen us do in years past.

我們仍然有一些部分完成的機器具有良好的視線，可以在第四季度清除許多機器。然後我們 - 我們確實打算將我們的線路費率從我們所做的地方和我們現在在第三季度生產的產品中提高一點點。線路率的大部分增長確實發生在第三季度，但我們會走平——第四季度更高。因此，這將為我們提供與過去幾年通常預期或通常看到的情況截然不同的情況。

David, it's Josh. As Brent mentioned, typical seasonality would see us come down in 4Q because we're not, for example, building and shipping combines to the extent we will this year and then a slower ramp in 1Q. Last year, clearly impacted by going through a work stoppage, so year-over-year, we're going to see those benefits as we get into the first quarter and build at those higher rates.

大衛，是喬希。正如布倫特所提到的，典型的季節性會使我們在第四季度下降，因為例如，我們沒有像今年那樣建造和運輸聯合收割機，然後在第一季度放緩。去年，顯然受到停工的影響，因此與去年同期相比，隨著我們進入第一季度並以更高的速度增長，我們將看到這些好處。

Now that's not to say it's going to be perfectly linear, but we are entering the year at much higher production rates. And given the demand we see that is covering a decent part of the first part of the year, first portion of the year, it is helpful. And that's -- with EOP, a lot of visibility there with our other products like large tractors, but then it extends into other things like our mid-series tractors where we've got visibility to what we'd expect to be at least 1/3 of next year already covered up. And we're seeing strong order activity in Brazil as well.

現在這並不是說它將是完全線性的，但我們正在以更高的生產率進入這一年。鑑於我們看到的需求覆蓋了今年上半年的相當一部分，今年上半年，這是有幫助的。這就是 - 使用 EOP，我們的其他產品（如大型拖拉機）有很多可見度，但隨後它延伸到其他產品，如我們的中型拖拉機，我們可以看到我們期望的至少 1明年的/3已經被掩蓋了。我們在巴西也看到了強勁的訂單活動。

So too early to have a full view or perspective on '23. But I think the takeaway is we feel really good about how we're going to exit 4Q into 1Q with strong demand and the ability to drive more efficiencies in our operation while beginning to look at our costs and take out some of those costs that Cory mentioned earlier.

對 23 年有一個完整的看法或觀點還為時過早。但我認為，我們對如何在需求強勁的情況下從第四季度進入第一季度感到非常滿意，並且有能力在我們的運營中提高效率，同時開始考慮我們的成本並消除科里的一些成本之前提到。

Your next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Steven Fisher。

Just a bigger picture question on the ag cycle and your inventory planning. I didn't quite hear the answer as part of Jamie's question. But how are you deciding how much and when to restock dealer inventories for both large and small ag? It seems like maybe small could be a little more complicated decision-making, given the divergence of what you talked about between the dairy products and the consumer. So just curious how you're thinking about the restocking and when and how much.

只是關於 ag 週期和您的庫存計劃的一個更大的問題。作為傑米問題的一部分，我沒有完全聽到答案。但是，您如何決定為大型和小型農業公司補充經銷商庫存的數量和時間？考慮到您在乳製品和消費者之間談論的內容存在分歧，看起來可能很小的決策可能會更複雜一些。所以只是好奇你是如何考慮補貨的，以及補貨的時間和數量。

Steven, thanks for the question. Large ag inventory, we won't see much of any build this year. Effectively, everything that we are shipping from our factories is already retail sold. In our data in the slide deck, you'll see a slight uptick in dealer inventories. That's just reflective of the higher build rates and the higher throughput that we're pushing through into the system. It's not really a reflection of any sort of restocking that's happening on the large ag side.

史蒂文，謝謝你的問題。大型農業庫存，今年我們不會看到太多的構建。實際上，我們從工廠運送的所有東西都已經零售了。在幻燈片中的數據中，您會看到經銷商庫存略有上升。這只是反映了我們向系統推進的更高的構建速率和更高的吞吐量。這並不能真正反映大型農業方面正在發生的任何形式的補貨。

I think going into next year, maybe too early to tell where we end. But right now, we are still on allocation, which implies demand still running a little bit ahead of supply. In that scenario, we wouldn't expect to build a lot of inventory, if any, next year. So it's still, again, a little early. But at least from where we sit today, probably limited ability to build inventory on the large ag side.

我想進入明年，也許還為時過早，說我們在哪裡結束。但目前，我們仍處於分配狀態，這意味著需求仍略高於供應。在這種情況下，我們預計明年不會建立大量庫存（如果有的話）。所以現在還是有點早。但至少從我們今天所處的位置來看，在大型農業方面建立庫存的能力可能有限。

The calculus in small ag is maybe a little bit different. Probably still going to be very tight with your midsized equipment that's going into the hay and forage and dairy and livestock sectors, while some of the more consumer-driven products, turf and compact utility drivers, may see demand moderate a little bit as we go through the year.

small ag 中的微積分可能有點不同。進入乾草和牧草以及乳製品和畜牧業的中型設備可能仍會非常緊張，而一些更受消費者驅動的產品、草坪和緊湊型公用事業驅動器的需求可能會隨著我們的發展而略有放緩經過一年。

Now that said, we're starting from pretty low inventories. So there may be some ability to build a little bit of inventory there. But we're going to be really careful and watch demand very, very closely so that we don't get ahead of ourselves in terms of inventory to sales ratios.

話雖如此，我們是從相當低的庫存開始的。所以可能有一些能力在那裡建立一點庫存。但我們將非常小心並非常非常密切地關注需求，以免我們在庫存與銷售比率方面領先於自己。

Yes, Steven, this is Cory. We're sitting at all-time lows. We're in the low teens in new and used. The teens that you see show up in dealer inventory are largely pipeline that are moving through to customers. Used inventory across the board for large ag equipment is all-time low. So -- and if you look at how across the board, with lease returns coming back, no one's sending any back. I mean, we're in a really good spot, and we're not going to really build any inventory even through '23.

是的，史蒂文，這是科里。我們正處於歷史最低點。我們處於新的和使用過的青少年時期。您在經銷商庫存中看到的青少年主要是流向客戶的管道。大型農業設備的二手庫存一直處於歷史最低水平。所以 - 如果你看看如何全面，隨著租賃回報的回歸，沒有人會寄回任何東西。我的意思是，我們處於一個非常好的位置，即使到 23 年，我們也不會真正建立任何庫存。

Our next question comes from Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephen Volkmann。

My question is about input cost because it looks like, at least from an index perspective, whether it's metals, rubber, energy in the U.S., transportation and logistics, I mean, all these costs seem to be rolling over pretty significantly. And so I'm wondering, are you starting to see that in some of this inventory build that you're doing? Or if not, sort of how should we think about that sort of ultimately starting to work its way through your cost structure?

我的問題是關於投入成本的，因為至少從指數的角度來看，無論是金屬、橡膠、美國的能源、運輸和物流，我的意思是，所有這些成本似乎都在顯著增加。所以我想知道，你是否開始在你正在做的一些庫存構建中看到這一點？或者如果不是，我們應該如何考慮最終開始通過您的成本結構發揮作用？

Steve, thanks for the question. Regarding input prices, I think there are a few different categories of cost at play in 2022. Some of the cost increases that we've experienced are going to be a little more structural and higher for longer. Things like labor and energy are parts of the supply base where they're truly capacity constrained, right? The supply and demand dynamics for those parts of the supply base will likely keep prices higher going into '23.

史蒂夫，謝謝你的問題。關於投入價格，我認為 2022 年有幾種不同類別的成本在起作用。我們所經歷的一些成本增長將更具結構性，並且持續時間更長。像勞動力和能源這樣的東西是供應基礎的一部分，它們真正受到產能限制，對吧？供應基礎中這些部分的供需動態可能會使價格在 23 年繼續走高。

That said, there are going to be some opportunities, I think, for costs to abate a little bit. There's been, in 2022, significant additional costs stemming from supply disruptions. We've talked a little bit about that as we exit this year with higher production rates, which should ease a little bit the overhead pressure going into next year. And then there's other parts of our supply base that are linked to raw material prices like steel and others in that commodity basket that have come down a little bit. And I think those are all going to be opportunities for cost reductions in '23 as we go through the year.

也就是說，我認為會有一些機會降低成本。到 2022 年，供應中斷會產生大量額外成本。當我們今年以更高的生產率退出時，我們已經談了一點，這應該會緩解明年的間接壓力。然後是我們供應基礎中與原材料價格相關的其他部分，如鋼鐵和該商品籃子中的其他部分，已經略有下降。我認為隨著我們這一年的發展，這些都將成為 23 年降低成本的機會。

Our next question comes from Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chad Dillard 和 Bernstein。

So a couple of questions for you. First of all, in your prepared remarks, you talked about share gains. So I just want to get a better understanding of which products you're seeing or showing then, and if you can particularly quantify how much you're seeing? And I guess, like more importantly, as you're thinking about the gains, to what extent do you think they're more cyclical versus structural? And then second question is just about your margins in Production & Precision Ag. It looks like the implied exit rate is about 25%. Is that the right number to kind of start thinking about in 2023?

所以有幾個問題要問你。首先，在你準備好的發言中，你談到了股票收益。所以我只是想更好地了解您當時看到或展示的產品，以及您是否可以特別量化您看到的產品數量？而且我想，更重要的是，當您考慮收益時，您認為它們在多大程度上更具週期性而不是結構性？然後第二個問題是關於您在 Production & Precision Ag 的利潤率。看起來隱含的退出率約為 25%。這是在 2023 年開始考慮的正確數字嗎？

Chad, a couple of questions in there. I'll try to work my way through those. With respect to share this year, we -- for the most part, we view share as a function of which players are able to produce machines, right? And there's a shortage of equipment. There's not a lot of inventory available. And so where the areas where we've had the best execution on our part, I would call out Mannheim tractors first and also Waterloo row crop tractors have been areas of strength for us as we've progressed through the year. And we continue to see and forecast good production rates exiting this year and going into '23 for both of those product lines.

乍得，有幾個問題。我會努力解決這些問題。關於今年的份額，我們——在大多數情況下，我們認為份額是哪些玩家能夠生產機器的函數，對吧？而且設備短缺。可用的庫存不多。因此，在我們執行得最好的領域，我首先會提到曼海姆拖拉機，滑鐵盧行耕拖拉機一直是我們在這一年取得進展的優勢領域。我們繼續看到並預測這兩條產品線今年將出現良好的生產率並進入 23 年。

In terms of margin for '23, I would say it's too early for us to have a guide. There's going to be a lot of variables as we exit '22 and go into '23. We've got new pricing for model year '23 products. There's certainly a lot of volatility in our cost structure as parts of that are coming in a little bit but other parts are remaining stubbornly high. So no real guidance on what to expect, I would say, for margins other than we would target incrementals pretty consistent -- going into '23, we would target incrementals that would be consistent with what you've come to expect at Deere. Ag & Turf products typically in the 30% to 35% range, and Construction & Forestry products historically have been in the 20% to 25% range, and that would be our targeting goal as we think about 2023.

就 23 年的利潤而言，我想說我們現在製定指南還為時過早。當我們退出 22 年並進入 23 年時，將會有很多變數。我們為 '23 年款產品製定了新定價。我們的成本結構肯定存在很大的波動，因為其中一部分會出現一點點波動，但其他部分仍然居高不下。因此，我想說，除了我們將目標增量相當一致之外，沒有關於預期的真正指導 - 進入 23 年，我們將針對與您在 Deere 所期望的目標一致的增量。 Ag & Turf 產品通常在 30% 至 35% 範圍內，而建築和林業產品歷史上一直在 20% 至 25% 範圍內，這將是我們在 2023 年考慮的目標目標。

Yes. Chad, it's Cory. The only thing I'd add on the share side, I mean, probably the thing -- we talk about large tractors, which we continue to be able to consistently perform and deliver. But I'm probably most excited about the share gains we see in sprayers and planters. These are the instruments of precision ag technology. These are the things that deliver on our strategy for smart industrial, the ability to take new technologies out that help us -- help customers do better, grow more yield, do it with less cost. And we're consistently moving share into the market with those.

是的。乍得，是科里。我唯一要在共享方面添加的東西，我的意思是，可能是-我們談論大型拖拉機，我們將繼續能夠始終如一地執行和交付。但我可能對我們在噴霧器和播種機中看到的份額增長感到最興奮。這些是精密農業技術的工具。這些是實現我們智能工業戰略的東西，能夠採用新技術來幫助我們——幫助客戶做得更好，提高產量，以更低的成本做到這一點。我們一直在通過這些將份額轉移到市場上。

And I'd remind you, if you look at those numbers, things like sprayers, we're actually shipping late this year and continuing to build share in planters. We're shipping a lot of products later than expected and continuing to build share. So those primary instruments of our strategy, we're growing share on consistently.

我要提醒你，如果你看看這些數字，比如噴霧器，我們實際上是在今年晚些時候發貨，並繼續在播種機中建立份額。我們交付的產品比預期的要晚，並繼續擴大市場份額。因此，我們戰略的這些主要工具，我們的份額一直在增長。

It's Josh. One thing on share to point out too is while, as Brent mentioned rightfully so, ability to ship is impacting month-on-month how we're seeing share performance. At the root, we're seeing share gains where we're converting customers, and that is a precision ag story. The value that we can create with our dealer network with our solutions and tools is converting customers.

是喬希。股票上還需要指出的一件事是，正如布倫特正確提到的那樣，出貨能力正在逐月影響我們對股票表現的看法。從根本上講，我們在轉化客戶的地方看到了份額收益，這是一個精準的農業故事。我們可以通過我們的解決方案和工具通過經銷商網絡創造的價值正在轉化客戶。

Now you might not see that show up exactly in a month-to-month market share number. But that's the big opportunity we have, and we see those conversions as a result of the value we can deliver to them and how we can do that seamlessly and easier to drive those outcomes, whether it be financial productivity or from a sustainable point of view.

現在，您可能不會在月度市場份額數字中看到這一點。但這是我們擁有的巨大機會，我們將這些轉化視為我們可以為他們提供價值的結果，以及我們如何能夠無縫且更輕鬆地推動這些成果，無論是財務生產力還是從可持續的角度來看.

Our next question comes from Michael Feniger with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Feniger。

In the past, you have said the cycle peak is typically at 120% to 140% of mid-cycle. I think you've calculated that on a 7-year rolling average. I'm just curious based on that framework and your expectations for 2023 to be up, where you think that large ag is going to finish next year, given that framework?

過去，您曾說過週期峰值通常在周期中期的 120% 到 140% 處。我認為您已經根據 7 年的滾動平均值計算了這一點。我只是很好奇基於該框架以及您對 2023 年的預期，鑑於該框架，您認為大型 ag 將在明年完成嗎？

Yes. Mike, this is Brent. Thanks for the question. It's probably a little too early at this point to predict where in the cycle what our math will calculate for 2023. Keep in mind, we're still on allocation for 2023, so that is implying there's still some level of unmet demand. And certainly, it's way too early at this point to call what will happen after 2023.

是的。邁克，這是布倫特。謝謝你的問題。在這一點上預測我們的數學將在 2023 年計算出的周期可能還為時過早。請記住，我們仍在為 2023 年分配，因此這意味著仍有一定程度的未滿足需求。當然，現在說 2023 年之後會發生什麼還為時過早。

So I think the important elements that we're focused on right now is customer fundamentals are still really strong. And while we will increase volumes next year and we may even begin to bring down the age of the fleet for tractors a little bit, we're still going to be at pretty elevated levels there. And as Cory noted, inventory levels are at record low. So these are all the things that we're contemplating as we plan our schedules for '23 and beyond.

所以我認為我們現在關注的重要因素是客戶基礎仍然非常強大。雖然我們明年將增加產量，甚至可能開始稍微降低拖拉機車隊的年齡，但我們仍將處於相當高的水平。正如科里所說，庫存水平處於歷史最低水平。因此，這些都是我們在計劃 23 年及以後的日程時正在考慮的所有事情。

And for us, these factors tend to point to a bit of a longer duration in the cycle, which makes it really difficult to compare from 1 cycle to the next because they're all a little different. But these are the factors that we're focused on and I think will drive our business in the next couple of years.

對我們來說，這些因素往往指向周期中較長的持續時間，這使得從第一個週期到下一個週期進行比較真的很困難，因為它們都有點不同。但這些是我們關注的因素，我認為這些因素將在未來幾年推動我們的業務。

I think importantly -- this is Josh. Importantly, as we go forward, as we talked about in May at our Investor Day is how do we continue to build a business that's more resilient, that has less volatility through the cycle. And we're in the early stages of that, but we feel confident in the ability, over time, to do that. And that's a continued focus of how do we reduce that volatility that we've seen historically moving up and down in the cycle.

我認為重要的是——這是喬希。重要的是，隨著我們向前發展，正如我們在 5 月份的投資者日所討論的那樣，我們如何繼續建立一個更具彈性、在整個週期中波動性較小的業務。我們還處於早期階段，但隨著時間的推移，我們對這樣做的能力充滿信心。這是我們如何減少歷史上在周期中上下波動的波動性的持續關注點。

The only other thing I would add to that, this is Cory, is we tend to talk a lot about the North American market. We have the very same dynamics in the South American market. Our team is out with one of the largest customers there. They're getting ready for their planting season for next year. They're likely going to plant the largest crop in the history of the region. We're seeing our shares grow and we're seeing our precision ag technology rates grow. We're putting the connectivity, the engaged acres. So it bodes well for the future for that region as well, which I think is worth noting.

我要補充的唯一另一件事是科里，我們傾向於談論北美市場。我們在南美市場也有同樣的動態。我們的團隊是那裡最大的客戶之一。他們正在為明年的種植季節做準備。他們可能會種植該地區歷史上最大的作物。我們看到我們的股票在增長，我們看到我們的精密農業技術比率也在增長。我們正在投入連接性，參與的英畝數。因此，這對於該地區的未來也是一個好兆頭，我認為這是值得注意的。

I think we've got time for one last caller.

我想我們還有時間接聽最後一個電話。

Our last question comes from John Joyner with BMO.

我們的最後一個問題來自 BMO 的 John Joyner。

So I had another question on planned inventory levels exiting the year and maybe you touched on this already, but how much of it is from production rates set to improve simply from supply chain and freight challenges easing versus what it says about how you perceive demand, I guess, today heading into fiscal '23 compared with what your assumptions were just a few months ago?

所以我對今年退出的計劃庫存水平有另一個問題，也許你已經談到了這個問題，但其中有多少來自生產率的提高，僅僅是因為供應鍊和貨運挑戰的緩解，而不是你對需求的看法，我想，與您幾個月前的假設相比，今天進入 23 財年？

Yes, John, thanks for the question. We would say that the primary driver of our inventory levels coming out of the fourth quarter and going into next year, it's really about the enthusiasm for the demand that we're seeing. And our ability to carry these higher production rates into next year is going to require higher inventory levels for us. That's the primary driver more so than just carrying more inventory because of supply constraints. There could be a little bit of that in there. But that wasn't really the primary impetus for carrying more inventory coming out of the year.

是的，約翰，謝謝你的問題。我們會說，我們從第四季度到明年的庫存水平的主要驅動因素，實際上是我們所看到的對需求的熱情。我們將這些更高的生產率帶到明年的能力將需要我們更高的庫存水平。這是主要驅動因素，而不僅僅是由於供應限製而攜帶更多庫存。裡面可能有一點點。但這並不是今年增加庫存的主要動力。

I think we're out of time for the rest of the hour. So thank you, everybody, for calling in. We appreciate the questions, and we look forward to following up with everybody after the call. Thanks, all.

我想我們剩下的時間沒時間了。因此，謝謝大家的來電。我們感謝您提出的問題，我們期待在電話會議後與大家進行跟進。謝謝大家。

Thank you. And that does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. At this time, you may disconnect your lines.

謝謝你。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。我們感謝您的參與。此時，您可以斷開線路。