強鹿 (DE) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Deere & Company's second quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加迪爾公司第二季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Brent Norwood, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監 Brent Norwood 先生。謝謝你。你可以開始了。

Hello. Also on the call today are Ryan Campbell, Chief Financial Officer; Josh Jepsen, Deputy Financial Officer; Galia Barr, Director of Corporate Economics; and Rachel Bach, Manager of Investor Communications. Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's second quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for the fiscal year 2022. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.

你好。今天的電話會議還有首席財務官 Ryan Campbell； Josh Jepsen，副財務官； Galia Barr，企業經濟總監；和投資者溝通經理 Rachel Bach。今天，我們將仔細研究迪爾第二季度的收益，然後花一些時間談論我們的市場和我們目前對 2022 財年的展望。之後，我們將回答您的問題。請注意，今天上午的電話會議提供了幻燈片來補充。可以在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 上訪問它們。

First, a reminder. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the expressed written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

首先，提醒一下。該電話正在互聯網上進行現場直播，並記錄下來以供 Deere & Company 將來傳輸和使用。未經 Deere 明確書面同意，嚴禁以任何其他方式使用、錄製或傳輸此版權廣播的任何部分。電話會議（包括問答環節）的參與者同意，他們在所有媒體中的肖像和評論可以被存儲並用作收益電話會議的一部分。

This call includes forward-looking comments concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K and periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings & Events.

本次電話會議包括有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性評論，這些計劃和預測受到重大風險和不確定性的影響。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的其他信息包含在公司最近提交給證券交易委員會的 8-K 表格和定期報告中。該呼籲還可能包括不符合美國公認會計準則的財務措施。有關這些措施的其他信息，包括與可比 GAAP 措施的對賬，包含在新聞稿中，並發佈在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的季度收益和事件下。

I will now turn the call over to Rachel Bach.

我現在將把電話轉給 Rachel Bach。

Thanks, Brent, and good morning. John Deere completed the second quarter with sound execution despite being constrained by persistent supply challenges. Financial results for the quarter included a 19.9% margin for the equipment operations. Ag fundamentals remain solid, with our order books largely full through the balance of the year and demand starting to build for our model year '23 products. Furthermore, the construction and forestry markets also continued to benefit from strong demand and price realization, contributing to the division's solid performance in the quarter.

謝謝，布倫特，早上好。儘管受到持續供應挑戰的限制，約翰迪爾第二季度仍以良好的執行力完成。本季度的財務業績包括設備業務的 19.9% 利潤率。農業基本面保持穩固，我們的訂單在今年餘下時間基本已滿，並且對我們的 23 年車型產品的需求開始增加。此外，建築和林業市場也繼續受益於強勁的需求和價格實現，為該部門在本季度的穩健表現做出了貢獻。

Slide 3 shows the results for the second quarter. Net sales and revenues were up 11% to $13.37 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were up 9% to $12.034 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $2.098 billion or $6.81 per diluted share.

幻燈片 3 顯示了第二季度的結果。淨銷售額和收入增長 11% 至 133.7 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額增長 9% 至 120.34 億美元。歸屬於迪爾公司的淨收入為 20.98 億美元或每股攤薄收益 6.81 美元。

Taking a closer look at our production and precision ag business on Slide 4. Net sales of $5.117 billion were up 13% compared to the second quarter last year primarily due to price realization and higher shipment volumes. Price realization in the quarter was positive by about 11 points. Operating profit was $1.057 billion, resulting in a 20% -- 21% operating margin for the segment. The year-over-year increase in operating profit was primarily due to price realization and higher shipment volumes partially offset by higher production costs and higher R&D spend. The production costs were mostly elevated material and freight. Supply challenges also contributed to production inefficiencies, driving higher overheads for the period.

在幻燈片 4 中仔細查看我們的生產和精密農業業務。與去年第二季度相比，淨銷售額為 51.17 億美元，增長了 13%，這主要是由於價格實現和出貨量增加。本季度的價格實現正增長約 11 個百分點。營業利潤為 10.57 億美元，該部門的營業利潤率為 20% - 21%。營業利潤的同比增長主要是由於價格實現和更高的出貨量部分被更高的生產成本和更高的研發支出所抵消。生產成本主要是材料和運費的上漲。供應挑戰也導致生產效率低下，導致該時期的間接費用增加。

The increased R&D spend reflects our continued focus on developing and integrating technology solutions into our equipment and unlocking value for our customers. Operating profit for the quarter was also negatively impacted by an impairment of $46 million related to the events of Russia to Ukraine.

研發支出的增加反映了我們繼續專注於開發技術解決方案並將其集成到我們的設備中，並為我們的客戶釋放價值。本季度的營業利潤也受到與俄羅斯與烏克蘭事件相關的 4600 萬美元減值的負面影響。

Next, small ag and turf on Slide 5. Net sales were up 5%, totaling $3.57 billion in the second quarter as price realization more than offset negative currency translation. Price realization in the quarter was positive by just over 8 points, while currency translation was negative by about 2 points.

接下來是幻燈片 5 上的小型農業和草皮。第二季度淨銷售額增長 5%，總計 35.7 億美元，因為價格實現超過了負面的貨幣轉換。本季度的價格實現為正值略高於 8 個百分點，而貨幣換算為負值約 2 個百分點。

For the quarter, operating profit was down year-over-year at $520 million, resulting in a 14.6% operating margin. The decreased profit was primarily due to higher production costs, specifically material, and an unfavorable sales mix. These items were partially offset by price realization.

本季度，營業利潤同比下降 5.2 億美元，營業利潤率為 14.6%。利潤下降主要是由於較高的生產成本，特別是材料成本，以及不利的銷售組合。這些項目被價格實現部分抵消。

To share more perspective on the current global ag and turf industry and fundamentals, I'm happy to be joined today by Galia Barr, Director of Corporate Economics. Galia?

為了分享對當前全球農業和草皮行業和基本面的更多看法，我很高興今天有企業經濟總監 Galia Barr 加入。加利亞？

Thanks, Rachel. Turning to Slide 6. I would first like to take a few moments to talk through some points that are influencing the global industry. Global stock for grains and oilseeds have declined over the past 3 seasons, and we expect to see significant less production and export out of the Black Sea region. And on the demand side, there was an increase of imports into China as China's hog herd recovered. So both supply and demand factors are leading to higher crop prices as reflected in the recent WASDE release. Meanwhile, growers are experiencing input cost inflation and availability concerns, most notably with fertilizer. Though row crop producers are experiencing higher input costs, many purchased input in advance of the recent inflation and are marketing their crops at unlimited prices. As a result, growers continue to experience strong profitability and cash flow. While farmers expect another year of high input costs in 2023, global grains and oilseeds prices have risen enough to deliver healthy margin profit into the next season.

謝謝，雷切爾。轉到幻燈片 6。我想先花點時間談談影響全球行業的一些觀點。過去 3 個季節，全球穀物和油籽庫存下降，我們預計黑海地區的產量和出口量將顯著減少。而在需求方面，隨著中國生豬數量的恢復，中國的進口量有所增加。因此，正如最近發布的 WASDE 所反映的，供需因素都導致作物價格上漲。與此同時，種植者正面臨投入成本膨脹和供應問題，尤其是化肥。儘管行作物生產者正在經歷更高的投入成本，但許多人在最近的通貨膨脹之前購買了投入，並以無限的價格銷售他們的作物。因此，種植者繼續獲得強勁的盈利能力和現金流。雖然農民預計 2023 年投入成本將再高一年，但全球穀物和油籽價格已上漲到足以為下一季帶來可觀的利潤利潤。

With respect to farm equipment. 2 consecutive years of industry-wide production constraints have resulted in further aging of the fleet. The higher-than-average fleet age, coupled with low channel inventory, is contributing to pent-up demand and is likely to remain beyond fiscal '22.

關於農用設備。連續 2 年全行業的生產限制導致船隊進一步老化。高於平均水平的機隊年齡，加上低渠道庫存，導致需求被壓抑，並且可能會持續到 22 財年之後。

With this backdrop of continued strong ag fundamentals, we expect U.S. and Canada industry sales of large ag equipment to be up approximately 20%. Order books for the remainder of the current fiscal year are mostly full, and we already see signs of strong demand for model year '23 equipment, with some order books opening in June.

在農業基本面持續強勁的背景下，我們預計美國和加拿大大型農業設備的行業銷售額將增長約 20%。本財年剩餘時間的訂單大部分已滿，我們已經看到對 23 年型號設備的強勁需求跡象，一些訂單在 6 月開放。

Small ag and turf industry demand continues to be forecasted to be about flat this year. We are seeing moderate increases from our hay and forage segment, while consumer products are lower due to supply constraints and low inventory in the channel. Rising interest rates will likely impact home sales and home improvement spending in North America, although we expect them to remain elevated. Equipment inventories remain well below normal and are unlikely to begin recovering until 2023.

預計今年小型農業和草皮行業的需求將基本持平。我們看到我們的干草和草料部分出現適度增長，而由於供應限制和渠道庫存低，消費品價格較低。利率上升可能會影響北美的房屋銷售和家居裝修支出，儘管我們預計它們將保持高位。設備庫存仍遠低於正常水平，並且不太可能在 2023 年之前開始恢復。

Now moving on to Europe. The industry is forecasted to be up roughly 5% as higher commodity prices strengthen business condition in the arable segment. We expect the industry will continue to face supply-based constraints, resulting in demand (inaudible) production for the year. At this time, our order book extends through the duration of fiscal '22 and even into early fiscal '23 for some product lines.

現在轉戰歐洲。由於大宗商品價格上漲加強了可耕種領域的商業狀況，預計該行業將增長約 5%。我們預計該行業將繼續面臨基於供應的限制，從而導致今年的需求（聽不清）生產。目前，我們的訂單將持續到 '22 財年，甚至某些產品線的早期產品線還包括 '23 財年。

In South America, we expect industry sales of tractors and combines to increase by approximately 10%. Despite low -- the low trend crop yield due to weather, our customers are very profitable this year, benefiting from high commodity prices. Our order book reflects the strong sentiment and are nearly full for most product lines.

在南美，我們預計拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷售額將增長約 10%。儘管由於天氣原因導致作物產量偏低，但我們的客戶今年受益匪淺，受益於商品價格高企。我們的訂單反映了強烈的情緒，並且對於大多數產品線來說幾乎是滿的。

Industry sales in Asia are forecasted to be down moderately as India, which is the world's largest tractor market by unit, moderates from record volume achieved in 2021.

由於印度是世界上最大的拖拉機市場，從 2021 年的創紀錄銷量開始放緩，因此亞洲的行業銷售額預計將溫和下降。

I will now turn the call back to Rachel.

我現在將電話轉回給瑞秋。

Thanks, Galia. Moving on to our segment forecast, beginning on Slide 7. Production and precision ag net sales continue to be forecasted up between 25% and 30% in fiscal year '22. The forecast assumes about 13 points of positive price realization for the full year, which will allow us to be price/cost positive for the fiscal year. Additionally, we expect roughly 1 point of currency headwind. For the segment's operating margin, our full year forecast remains between 21% and 22%, reflecting consistently solid financial performance across all geographic regions.

謝謝，加利亞。繼續我們的細分市場預測，從幻燈片 7 開始。預計 22 財年的生產和精密農業淨銷售額將繼續增長 25% 至 30%。該預測假設全年價格實現正值約 13 個點，這將使我們在本財年實現價格/成本正值。此外，我們預計大約 1 個點的貨幣逆風。對於該部門的營業利潤率，我們的全年預測保持在 21% 至 22% 之間，反映出所有地理區域的財務表現始終穩健。

Slide 8 shows our forecast for the small ag and turf segment. We expect net sales in fiscal year '22 to be up about 15%. This guidance includes over 8 points of positive price realization and 3 points of currency headwind. The segment's operating margin is forecasted to be between 15.5% and 16.5%. Although price/cost remains positive, for the year, supply challenges as well as higher material and freight costs are expected to continue to put pressure on margins.

幻燈片 8 顯示了我們對小型農業和草坪市場的預測。我們預計 22 財年的淨銷售額將增長約 15%。該指引包括超過 8 個正價格實現點和 3 個貨幣逆風點。該部門的營業利潤率預計在 15.5% 至 16.5% 之間。儘管價格/成本仍然是積極的，但在今年，供應挑戰以及更高的材料和運費成本預計將繼續對利潤率構成壓力。

Turning to construction and forestry on Slide 9. For the quarter, net sales of $3.347 billion were up 9%, largely due to price realization and higher shipment volumes. Operating profit increased year-over-year to $814 million, resulting in a 24% operating margin. During the quarter, there was a onetime gain of $326 million investment remeasurement from the Hitachi transaction. Results were also impacted by a $47 million impairment related to the events in Russia and Ukraine. Excluding those special items, operating margin would have been 16%.

在幻燈片 9 上轉向建築和林業。本季度，淨銷售額為 33.47 億美元，增長 9%，主要是由於價格實現和出貨量增加。營業利潤同比增長至 8.14 億美元，營業利潤率為 24%。在本季度，日立交易的投資重新計量一次性獲得了 3.26 億美元的收益。結果還受到與俄羅斯和烏克蘭事件相關的 4700 萬美元減值的影響。不包括這些特殊項目，營業利潤率將為 16%。

Higher production costs and an unfavorable product mix were detrimental to the quarter results. The production costs were mainly a result of higher material and freight.

較高的生產成本和不利的產品組合對季度業績不利。生產成本主要是由於較高的材料和運費。

Now let's take a look at our 2022 construction and forestry industry outlook on Slide 10. Industry sales of earthmoving equipment in North America are expected to be up approximately 10%, while the compact construction market is forecast to be flat to up 5%. End markets for earthmoving and compact equipment are expected to remain strong as the U.S. housing market is forecasted to remain elevated.

現在讓我們在幻燈片 10 上看一下我們對 2022 年建築和林業行業的展望。北美土方設備的行業銷售額預計將增長約 10%，而緊湊型建築市場預計將持平至 5%。由於美國房地產市場預計將保持高位，土方和緊湊型設備的終端市場預計將保持強勁。

Oil and gas activities continue to ramp up, and strong CapEx programs from the independent rental companies drive refleeting efforts. Compact construction equipment inventory levels are extremely low due to supply constraints affecting those product lines.

石油和天然氣活動繼續增加，獨立租賃公司強大的資本支出計劃推動了重新調整的努力。由於影響這些產品線的供應限制，緊湊型建築設備的庫存水平極低。

In forestry, we now expect the industry to be flat to up 5%, and global roadbuilding markets are also expected to be flat to up 5%. Roadbuilding demand in the Americas remains strong, while China and Russia markets are down significantly.

在林業方面，我們現在預計該行業將持平至增長 5%，全球道路建設市場也預計持平至增長 5%。美洲的道路建設需求依然強勁，而中國和俄羅斯市場則大幅下滑。

The C&F segment outlook is on Slide 11. Deere's construction and forestry 2022 net sales continue to be forecasted up between 10% and 15%. Our net sales guidance for the year includes 9 points of positive price realization and 2 points of negative currency impact. The segment's operating margin outlook has been revised to a range of 15.5% to 16.5%. The update reflects the onetime gain from the Deere-Hitachi transaction and the impairment related to the events in Russia and Ukraine that occurred in the second quarter of 2022. The normal course of business continues to benefit from increases in price and volume.

C&F 部門前景在幻燈片 11 上。迪爾的建築和林業 2022 年淨銷售額繼續預計增長 10% 至 15%。我們今年的淨銷售指導包括 9 個正價格實現點和 2 個負貨幣影響點。該部門的營業利潤率前景已修訂至 15.5% 至 16.5% 的範圍。該更新反映了迪爾-日立交易的一次性收益以及與 2022 年第二季度發生在俄羅斯和烏克蘭的事件相關的減值。正常的業務過程繼續受益於價格和數量的增加。

Shifting over to our financial services operations on Slide 12. Worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere & Company in the second quarter was $208 million. This is a slight decrease compared to the second quarter last year, primarily due to the higher reserves for credit losses, partially offset by income earned on a higher average portfolio. For fiscal year '22, we maintain our net income outlook at $870 million as the segment is expected to continue to benefit from income earned on a higher average portfolio balance.

在幻燈片 12 上轉到我們的金融服務業務。第二季度歸屬於迪爾公司的全球金融服務淨收入為 2.08 億美元。與去年第二季度相比略有下降，主要是由於較高的信貸損失準備金，部分被較高的平均投資組合所賺取的收入所抵消。對於 22 財年，我們將淨收入展望維持在 8.7 億美元，因為該部門預計將繼續受益於更高的平均投資組合餘額所賺取的收入。

Slide 13 outlines our guidance for net income, our effective tax rate and operating cash flow. For fiscal year '22, we are raising our outlook for net income to be between $7 billion and $7.4 billion, reflecting the onetime items in the second quarter of this year. The full year forecast is inclusive of the impact of higher raw material prices and logistics costs. At this time, our forecasted price realization is expected to outpace both material and freight costs for the entire year. The first 2 quarters are expected to be our most difficult material and freight inflationary cost compares, while the third quarter comparison to last year should improve slightly.

幻燈片 13 概述了我們對淨收入、有效稅率和經營現金流的指導。對於 22 財年，我們將淨收入預期提高到 70 億美元至 74 億美元之間，這反映了今年第二季度的一次性項目。全年預測包括原材料價格上漲和物流成本的影響。目前，我們預測的價格實現預計將超過全年的材料和運費成本。預計前兩個季度將是我們最困難的材料和運費通脹成本比較，而第三季度與去年相比應該會略有改善。

As we progress into the fourth quarter, we expect those material and freight comparisons to improve even further. We also expect shipments to be more back half weighted than we've seen historically as we work through a backlog of partially built inventory waiting for supply parts and while seasonal factories will continue to produce without the typical shutdown periods.

隨著我們進入第四季度，我們預計這些材料和運費的比較將進一步改善。我們還預計出貨量將比我們歷史上看到的更多，因為我們正在處理積壓的部分庫存等待供應零件，而季節性工廠將繼續生產而沒有典型的停工期。

Moving on to tax. Our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate projected to be between 22% and 24%.

繼續稅收。我們的指導包含預計在 22% 至 24% 之間的有效稅率。

Lastly, cash flow from the equipment operations is now expected to be in the range of $5.6 billion to $6 billion. The decrease in the forecast reflects the increases in working capital required through the year.

最後，設備業務的現金流現在預計在 56 億至 60 億美元之間。預測的下降反映了全年所需營運資金的增加。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Ryan Campbell, Chief Financial Officer, for comments. Ryan?

目前，我想將電話轉給首席財務官 Ryan Campbell 徵求意見。瑞恩？

Before we transition to the Q&A portion, I would like to make a few remarks on our results and the opportunities ahead of us.

在我們過渡到問答部分之前，我想對我們的結果和我們面前的機會發表一些評論。

Reflecting on the second quarter results. As we indicated in our prior earnings call and outlook, the supply chain-related constraints continued through the quarter and will not likely abate during this fiscal year. With respect to our forecast, excluding the special items in the second quarter, our operational guidance remains roughly unchanged.

回顧第二季度的業績。正如我們在之前的財報電話會議和展望中指出的那樣，與供應鏈相關的限制在整個季度都持續存在，並且在本財年不太可能減弱。關於我們的預測，不包括第二季度的特殊項目，我們的運營指導基本保持不變。

I want to commend our employees, dealers and suppliers for their efforts to support customers and deliver products as quickly as possible in this dynamic environment.

我要讚揚我們的員工、經銷商和供應商在這個動態的環境中為支持客戶和盡快交付產品所做的努力。

Given the strong fundamentals in agriculture, coupled with the underlying supply constraints, we do not see the industry being able to meet all of the demand that exists in 2022. While difficult to quantify exactly the impact of this, we expect 2023 to be another strong year of industry demand.

鑑於農業基本面強勁，加上潛在的供應限制，我們認為該行業無法滿足 2022 年存在的所有需求。雖然難以準確量化其影響，但我們預計 2023 年將再次強勁年行業需求。

Strategically, each day that passes gives us more confidence in our smart industrial strategy and our recently announced Leap Ambitions. While we are hard at work managing our operations in this dynamic environment, we are also executing on our strategy. Our production systems teams continue to identify and execute against opportunities to drive both economic and sustainable value for our customers and their operations. This is even more critical in an environment where inputs are significantly increasing in costs and/or hard to come by.

從戰略上講，過去的每一天都讓我們對我們的智能工業戰略和我們最近宣布的飛躍雄心更有信心。雖然我們在這個動態的環境中努力管理我們的運營，但我們也在執行我們的戰略。我們的生產系統團隊繼續識別和執行機會，為我們的客戶及其運營帶來經濟和可持續價值。這在投入成本顯著增加和/或難以獲得的環境中更為關鍵。

Thanks, Ryan. Now before we open the line for Q&A, I would like to dive deeper into a few important topics for the quarter.

謝謝，瑞恩。現在，在我們開啟問答環節之前，我想深入探討本季度的一些重要主題。

Let's start with our full year revenue guidance. The top line forecast implies a second half shipment schedule that is higher than the first half. Brent, what factors led to this? And how does Deere plan to deliver on a back half-loaded year?

讓我們從全年收入指導開始。頂線預測意味著下半年出貨計劃高於上半年。布倫特，是什麼因素導致了這種情況？迪爾計劃如何在後半年交付？

Yes. First, I'll spend a few minutes talking about some of the factors in the first half of the year. The first quarter was unusually low due to the work stoppage that we experienced. So we expected the delivery schedule would be seasonally different earlier in the year.

是的。首先，我會花幾分鐘談談上半年的一些因素。由於我們經歷的停工，第一季度異常低迷。因此，我們預計今年早些時候的交貨時間表會因季節而異。

We also had 2 large new product programs that we're ramping up to full production in the first half, the X9 combine and the 9R tractor. And our production's plans always reflected higher volumes of these products later in the year.

我們還有 2 個大型新產品計劃，我們將在上半年全面投入生產，即 X9 聯合收割機和 9R 拖拉機。我們的生產計劃總是反映出這些產品在今年晚些時候的產量增加。

Typically, we see -- we have some of our seasonal factories that take shutdowns in the second half of the year. However, this year, we'll see some of our PPA, production and precision ag, factories producing through much of the third and fourth quarter. Overall, we expect to have more production days in the second half of 2022 than the previous year, and we expect to grow production progressively from the second quarter through the fourth quarter, meaning we expect Q4 to be our highest revenue quarter for the year.

通常，我們看到 - 我們的一些季節性工廠在下半年關閉。然而，今年，我們將看到我們的一些 PPA、生產和精密 ag 工廠在第三季度和第四季度的大部分時間裡生產。總體而言，我們預計 2022 年下半年的生產天數將比上一年更多，並且我們預計從第二季度到第四季度的產量將逐步增長，這意味著我們預計第四季度將是我們今年收入最高的季度。

Additionally, supply disruptions led to inefficiencies at factories, resulting in unusually high inventory of partially completed machines. As soon as we get parts, we will be able to complete and ship product, providing confidence in the second half shipment schedule.

此外，供應中斷導致工廠效率低下，導致部分完成的機器庫存異常高。一旦我們得到零件，我們將能夠完成並發貨產品，為下半年的發貨計劃提供信心。

Our guidance does contemplate getting enough parts to fulfill the production schedule. As Ryan mentioned, we are collaborating with suppliers and our factories and are working hard to make sure we get there.

我們的指導確實考慮獲得足夠的零件來完成生產計劃。正如 Ryan 所說，我們正在與供應商和我們的工廠合作，並正在努力確保我們能夠實現目標。

This is Josh. Maybe one thing to add there. We're seeing some of this play out in the AEM retail data as well where you see some categories down year-to-date but choppiness in the month-to-month retails. The decrease in certain categories is not reflective of changes in demand, but more -- the challenges we're seeing in getting products shipped and not just us, but across the industry, given the current environment in supply.

這是喬什。也許要在那裡添加一件事。我們在 AEM 零售數據中也看到了其中的一些情況，您可以看到一些類別從年初至今有所下降，但月度零售數據卻出現波動。某些類別的減少並不反映需求的變化，而是更多——考慮到當前的供應環境，我們在運送產品方面看到的挑戰不僅僅是我們，而是整個行業。

Great. Thank you. Next, let's discuss how margins will progress throughout the year, especially in the context of price and material freight costs. Can you talk a little bit more about how we should think about margins in the second half versus the first half? Brent, how do you expect the rest of the year to unfold?

偉大的。謝謝你。接下來，讓我們討論一下全年利潤率將如何發展，尤其是在價格和材料運費成本的背景下。你能多談談我們應該如何考慮下半場和上半場的利潤率嗎？布倫特，你預計今年餘下的時間會如何發展？

So we experienced the most difficult material and freight compares in the first half of 2022. Lagging contracts on steel means we have seen progressively higher costs since third quarter 2021. Other costs are ramping as well. Commodities such as copper and aluminum, electronics and even things like labor and energy are increasing. We'll begin to anniversary some of these cost increases in the third and fourth quarter. So we'll see easier compares relative to the previous year.

因此，我們在 2022 年上半年經歷了最困難的材料和運費比較。鋼鐵合同滯後意味著自 2021 年第三季度以來我們的成本逐漸上升。其他成本也在攀升。銅和鋁等商品、電子產品甚至勞動力和能源等商品都在增加。我們將在第三季度和第四季度開始對其中一些成本增加進行週年紀念。所以我們會看到與前一年相比更容易比較。

Freight remains elevated, too. Recent COVID lockdowns in China have caused delays in shipping globally, compounding some of the previous logistics bottlenecks. With the supply chain backed up, we're utilizing significantly more airfreight solutions, and we expect this to continue throughout the second half of 2022.

運費也保持在高位。中國最近的 COVID 封鎖導致全球航運延誤，加劇了之前的一些物流瓶頸。隨著供應鏈的支持，我們正在使用更多的空運解決方案，我們預計這種情況將持續到 2022 年下半年。

In addition to material and freight, overhead has increased. This has come from the choppiness in the supply base and is particularly evident in the number of partially completed machines in our inventory that are missing parts required to be complete.

除了材料和運費，間接費用也增加了。這來自於供應基地的不穩定，尤其是在我們庫存中部分完成的機器數量上，這些機器缺少完成所需的零件。

So while the compare gets easier, we probably won't see much moderation in material and freight costs this year. Fortunately, price realization should get progressively better, potentially making the fourth quarter the highest margin period for us, which is a bit atypical.

因此，雖然比較變得更容易，但今年我們可能不會看到材料和運費成本有多少放緩。幸運的是，價格實現應該會越來越好，可能會使第四季度成為我們的最高利潤期，這有點不典型。

We have managed our order books differently than we have in the past, enabling us to adapt to changes in inflation. So as noted earlier, we expect our price for the full year will more than offset increases in material and freight.

我們以不同於過去的方式管理訂單簿，使我們能夠適應通貨膨脹的變化。因此，如前所述，我們預計全年價格將抵消材料和運費的增長。

Thanks, Brent. Let's take a closer look at ag fundamentals. Galia, can you share more insight?

謝謝，布倫特。讓我們仔細看看農業基本面。 Galia，你能分享更多的見解嗎？

Sure. Let's start with the global stock for grain oilseeds, which we have seen decline over the last 3 seasons, and that's driven by both the supply/demand side.

當然。讓我們從全球穀物油籽庫存開始，我們看到過去 3 個季節的庫存下降，這是由供需雙方共同推動的。

Now looking at the demand side, we experienced a large increase in Chinese import, and that's starting in the year -- crop year 2021 as China's hog herd recovered from the African swine fever. And now on the supply side, the world experiencing significant damage to crop 2 consecutive years, that was in 2021 crop year and also 2022 crop year as well, and in multiple locations: in North America, South America, parts of the CIS. So together, strong demand and declining supply led to the higher price that we're experiencing over the past 2 years.

現在從需求方面來看，我們經歷了中國進口的大幅增長，這是從 2021 作物年開始的，因為中國的生豬群從非洲豬瘟中恢復過來。現在在供應方面，世界作物連續兩年遭受重大損失，即在 2021 作物年和 2022 作物年，並且在多個地點：北美、南美和獨聯體的部分地區。因此，強勁的需求和不斷下降的供應共同導致我們在過去 2 年經歷的價格上漲。

Now expected lower production of crop from the Black Sea region adds to the challenges that the (inaudible) already faces. The region accounts for almost about 1/3 of global wheat exports as well as a notable source of corn exports. USDA forecast production and export for wheat and corn to be almost 50% lower for '22/'23 crop year from the Black Sea region. And in fact, the potential export loss could impact 2 crop years. And as a result, right now, wheat ending stocks among key exporters could fall below 50 million tons, which is the lowest level in 15 years.

現在預計黑海地區的作物減產增加了（聽不清）已經面臨的挑戰。該地區幾乎佔全球小麥出口的 1/3，也是玉米出口的重要來源。美國農業部預測，黑海地區 '22/'23 作物年度的小麥和玉米產量和出口量將下降近 50%。事實上，潛在的出口損失可能會影響 2 個作物年。因此，目前，主要出口國的小麥期末庫存可能低於 5000 萬噸，這是 15 年來的最低水平。

Now looking at the fertilizer prices, which have climbed in some markets or experiencing scarcities of this critical input. Persistent fertilizer constraints and high price will lead the supply chain to adjust, but this is likely going to take some time. If you put these factors together, while row crop producers are experiencing high input costs, many have purchased input in advance of recent inflation and were able to market their crops at a high price, which helped mitigate the higher input costs. And also a tight global supply will likely remain supportive of prices next year, which is helping to sustain some more profitability.

現在看看化肥價格，在一些市場上已經攀升或遇到這種關鍵投入的稀缺。持續的肥料限制和高價格將導致供應鏈調整，但這可能需要一些時間。如果將這些因素放在一起，雖然行作物生產者正在經歷高昂的投入成本，但許多人已經在最近的通貨膨脹之前購買了投入，並且能夠以高價銷售他們的作物，這有助於緩解較高的投入成本。此外，明年全球供應緊張可能仍會支撐價格，這有助於維持更多的盈利能力。

Now given this backdrop of elevated commodity prices, combined with 2 consecutive years of constrained machinery production, we have older fleet age and low channel inventory, the fundamentals for agriculture machinery remain favorable.

現在在大宗商品價格上漲的背景下，再加上連續兩年的機械生產受限，我們的機隊年齡較大，渠道庫存較低，農機基本面仍然良好。

Thanks, Galia. And maybe just to punctuate all of that. We're seeing strong demand as we look into model year '23 orders and even begin to take orders in 1Q '23 for certain products in different geographies. So we're expecting continued demand to be a tailwind going into '23.

謝謝，加利亞。也許只是為了強調所有這些。當我們研究 23 年車型訂單時，我們看到需求強勁，甚至在 23 年第一季度開始接受不同地區某些產品的訂單。因此，我們預計持續的需求將成為 23 年的順風車。

As a follow-up to that, our technology helps alleviate some of the pressure that Galia talked about on the input costs by enabling the customer to use less while still achieving yields.

作為對此的跟進，我們的技術有助於減輕 Galia 談到的投入成本方面的一些壓力，讓客戶在實現產量的同時減少使用量。

That's right. And traditionally, in ag, to boost yields, we've seen an approach that had to be do more with more. Both rising input costs, our customers are looking at how they can do more with less. And they're looking to us and the strategy that we've been talking about over the last few years. Using less inputs, but not losing out on yields, or in some cases, using less input and increasing yields.

這是正確的。傳統上，在農業中，為了提高產量，我們已經看到了一種必須事半功倍的方法。在投入成本不斷上升的同時，我們的客戶正在研究如何事半功倍。他們正在尋找我們以及我們在過去幾年中一直在談論的策略。使用更少的投入，但不會失去產量，或者在某些情況下，使用更少的投入並提高產量。

So for example, we introduced a product called ExactRate last year, which applies liquid nitrogen at the time of planting. This helps our customers get more precise with fertilizer usage, which has been a unit -- input experiencing rapid inflation this year. Not only can this reduce the cost, but also improves our customers' nitrogen efficiencies, unlocking significant environmental benefits as well as helping yield by applying nutrients when the seed needs it most. So not only do we see continued strong demand, but the demand for our precision ag solutions as our customers look for opportunities to do more with less.

例如，我們去年推出了一款名為 ExactRate 的產品，該產品在種植時使用液氮。這有助於我們的客戶更精確地使用肥料，這是一個單位——今年經歷了快速通貨膨脹的投入。這不僅可以降低成本，還可以提高我們客戶的氮效率，釋放顯著的環境效益，並在種子最需要的時候通過施用養分來幫助產量。因此，我們不僅看到了持續強勁的需求，而且隨著我們的客戶尋找事半功倍的機會，對我們精密農業解決方案的需求也越來越大。

Thanks, Josh. And speaking of precision ag and technology, Deere announced a few acquisitions during the quarter. Ryan, can you share more?

謝謝，喬希。談到精密農業和技術，迪爾在本季度宣布了一些收購。瑞恩，你能分享更多嗎？

Sure, Rachel. Consistent with the themes that we've previously discussed of digitization, automation, autonomy, life cycle, electrification and sustainability, we've executed during the quarter to expand our access to talent, technology and business opportunities in these areas.

當然，雷切爾。與我們之前討論的數字化、自動化、自主性、生命週期、電氣化和可持續性的主題一致，我們在本季度執行以擴大我們在這些領域獲得人才、技術和商業機會的機會。

I'd like to highlight one investment, GUSS Automation, which is a pioneer in semi-autonomous spraying for high-value crops. GUSS Automation brings an in-depth knowledge of HVC customers and innovative solutions that deal with some of the most pressing issues facing that segment today. We look forward to working together on further collaboration with the Deere sales channel and in other areas that drive value for HVC customers.

我想強調一項投資，GUSS 自動化，它是高價值作物半自主噴灑的先驅。 GUSS 自動化帶來了對 HVC 客戶的深入了解和創新的解決方案，這些解決方案可以解決當今該領域面臨的一些最緊迫的問題。我們期待與迪爾銷售渠道和其他為 HVC 客戶創造價值的領域進一步合作。

I highlight this investment as it is illustrative of the new smart industrial strategy focused on production systems. Our teams work to deeply understand customer production systems and how to deliver better outcomes, both from an economic and sustainability perspective, then we work to deliver a differentiated solutions.

我強調這項投資，因為它說明了以生產系統為重點的新智能工業戰略。我們的團隊從經濟和可持續發展的角度深入了解客戶生產系統以及如何提供更好的結果，然後我們致力於提供差異化的解決方案。

Sometimes we'll design to deliver that solution organically. Other times, we'll invest, partner or acquire unique capabilities to accelerate that delivery. Overall, you'll see us continue to aggressively expand our capabilities to deliver differentiated customer value, and we will dive deeper into this at our Tech Day on May 26.

有時我們會設計以有機地交付該解決方案。其他時候，我們將投資、合作或獲得獨特的能力來加速交付。總體而言，您將看到我們繼續積極擴展我們的能力以提供差異化的客戶價值，我們將在 5 月 26 日的技術日深入探討這一點。

Now we are ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call. The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure. (Operator Instructions)

現在我們準備開始電話的問答部分。接線員將指導您進行輪詢程序。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

I guess could you just talk to -- obviously, the Street views the second quarter as a miss. How the quarter came in relative to your expectations? And then also just on the -- can you just quantify the inventory that you have that you're still waiting for parts? I'm just trying to figure out how big of a deal that is. And was that the entire cut to cash flow?

我想你能不能談談 - 顯然，華爾街認為第二季度是一個失誤。本季度相對於您的預期如何？然後也只是在 - 你能量化你仍在等待零件的庫存嗎？我只是想弄清楚這筆交易有多大。這就是現金流的全部削減嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question. With respect to the second quarter, there's a lot of different variables going on there. Certainly, inflation has been broader based than just steel. We're seeing it impact a lot of other commodities. And I think we see continued pressure on material cost that have led to some of the margin performance in the second quarter.

是的。謝謝你的問題。關於第二季度，那裡有很多不同的變數。當然，通貨膨脹的基礎不僅僅是鋼鐵。我們看到它影響了許多其他商品。而且我認為我們看到材料成本的持續壓力導致第二季度的一些利潤率表現。

I think in addition to that, just with the delays and delinquencies we're seeing in the supply chain, we're utilizing a lot of additional premium freight right now. So that's also having an impact on our results for the quarter.

我認為除此之外，僅由於我們在供應鏈中看到的延誤和拖欠，我們現在正在利用大量額外的優質貨運。因此，這也對我們本季度的業績產生了影響。

Really, the biggest challenge, though, as we noted, in the second quarter was the number of partially completed machines that you referenced, Jamie. In many cases, that -- those partially completed machines will drive poor overhead absorption, but they also give us a lot of confidence in the second half production schedule because we do have confidence that we'll be able to complete and ship and ultimately retail those parts in the second half of the year.

確實，正如我們所指出的，第二季度最大的挑戰是你提到的部分完成的機器的數量，Jamie。在許多情況下，那些部分完成的機器會導致不良的間接費用吸收，但它們也讓我們對下半年的生產計劃充滿信心，因為我們確實有信心能夠完成並發貨並最終零售下半年的那些部分。

To give a little bit of an idea of the size of that, I mean, you can certainly look at the change in inventory that we had on the balance sheet sequentially in the second quarter from the first quarter. If you go back in history, typically, you don't see an increase in inventory in the second quarter. So that will give you a little bit of an idea of the magnitude that we saw of those partially completed machines.

為了稍微了解其規模，我的意思是，您當然可以查看第二季度與第一季度相比，我們在資產負債表上的庫存變化。如果您回顧歷史，通常情況下，您不會看到第二季度的庫存增加。因此，這將使您對我們看到的那些部分完成的機器的規模有所了解。

Yes. Jamie, it's Josh. Just to pile on what Brent mentioned there. That -- those machines sitting -- waiting on parts, if you look at the back half of the year, increase year-over-year in the second half, it represents close to 25%. So as Brent mentioned, getting those out gives us a significant jump on the back-end loaded sales.

是的。傑米，我是喬希。只是為了補充布倫特在那裡提到的內容。那 - 那些坐在零件上的機器，如果你看看下半年，下半年同比增長，它代表接近 25%。因此，正如布倫特所提到的，將這些產品拿出來可以讓我們在後端加載的銷售額上實現顯著增長。

Our next question comes from Kristen Owen from Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默的克里斯汀歐文。

Josh, you talked about some of this in some of the commentary that you made. But obviously, a lot of noise in the retail statistics and the industry sentiment indicators that we're seeing coming out. Just given the ongoing production challenge, how do you think investors should interpret some of those readings in the context of some of the demand commentary that you've made?

喬希，你在你所做的一些評論中談到了其中的一些。但顯然，我們看到的零售統計數據和行業情緒指標出現了很多噪音。鑑於持續的生產挑戰，您認為投資者應該如何在您所做的一些需求評論的背景下解讀其中的一些讀數？

Yes. With respect to retail data, we're certainly not surprised to see it come in a little bit choppy this year as certainly, we're dealing with delays and delinquencies in the supply base, but I presume that most of the industry is as well. And given the number of partially completed machines, I think we'll continue to see that data come in waves and be a little bit choppy as we get through the rest of the year.

是的。關於零售數據，我們當然不會感到驚訝，因為今年它有點波動，因為我們正在處理供應基礎的延遲和拖欠，但我認為大多數行業也是如此.考慮到部分完成的機器的數量，我認為我們將繼續看到數據一波又一波，隨著我們度過今年剩下的時間，數據會有點不穩定。

Certainly, with respect to market share on any given month, it's really a function of who can produce what that month. And so again, that'll be a little bit choppy. Certainly, particularly in the first quarter, we probably outperformed our own expectations there with respect to what we could deliver given the work stoppage. I'd say other than that, we have -- feel like we've been holding our own in terms of retailing machines.

當然，就任何給定月份的市場份額而言，這實際上取決於該月誰可以生產什麼。再說一次，這會有點波濤洶湧。當然，特別是在第一季度，在停工的情況下，我們可能超出了我們自己的預期。我想說的是，除此之外，我們 - 感覺就像我們在零售機器方面一直擁有自己的東西。

We do have a couple of standouts, though, and bright spots. 8Rs, in particular, is a product line that we've had a lot of success, outperforming the industry in terms of production. Mannheim tractors is as well. So if you look at the first half of the year, we picked up a little bit of market share on the 8Rs and then also in Europe for our high horsepower tractors and certainly look to holding on to that lead as we produce through the back half of the year.

不過，我們確實有一些突出的地方和亮點。特別是 8Rs 是我們取得了很大成功的產品線，在生產方面優於行業。曼海姆拖拉機也是如此。因此，如果您看一下今年上半年，我們在 8Rs 上獲得了一點市場份額，然後在歐洲獲得了我們的大馬力拖拉機，並且在我們通過後半部生產時肯定希望保持領先地位年。

Yes. Kristen, as it relates to the demand piece specifically, we have not seen that shift or change or cool as it pertains to large ag in particular. Anecdotally, for example, in Brazil, as we opened month-to-month, we filled a month of production in a day when we opened it. And as we start to get ready for early order programs, we're anticipating strong activity as we're talking to dealers who are already working with customers. So we think that demand environment continues and provides a good tailwind for '23.

是的。克里斯汀，因為它特別涉及到需求部分，我們還沒有看到這種轉變、變化或冷卻，因為它特別涉及到大公司。有趣的是，例如，在巴西，當我們逐月開業時，我們在開業時的一天就完成了一個月的生產。隨著我們開始為早期訂單計劃做好準備，我們正在與已經在與客戶合作的經銷商交談時預計會有強勁的活動。因此，我們認為需求環境仍在繼續，並為 23 年提供了良好的順風。

Kristen, it's Ryan. Maybe just to add. Some of the customer sentiment surveys are -- can be driven by just the overall volatility in the environment and the input pressures and concerns that customers may have with respect to that. Ultimately, demand comes from the actual economics, which we see continuing to be favorable.

克里斯汀，我是瑞恩。也許只是為了補充。一些客戶情緒調查可能只是由環境的整體波動以及客戶可能對此產生的輸入壓力和擔憂所驅動。最終，需求來自實際經濟，我們認為這將繼續有利。

Our next question comes from Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephen Volkmann。

So I kind of want to go back to this first half, second half thing, if we could. And it feels like a lot of what you're planning on is -- requires the supply chain to sort of improve going forward and get you those parts you need to get those parked vehicles shipped. So I'm curious, a, how did that play out in April? Because it feels like it actually maybe deteriorated a little bit, but correct me if I'm wrong. And then secondarily, just how much visibility do you have on that in the second half to give you that confidence in that kind of ramp that we're seeing?

所以我有點想回到上半場，下半場，如果可以的話。感覺就像你計劃的很多事情是——需要供應鏈在某種程度上進行改進，並為你提供運送停放車輛所需的零件。所以我很好奇，一個，那在四月份是怎麼發生的？因為感覺它實際上可能會惡化一點，但如果我錯了，請糾正我。其次，你在下半場有多少能見度，讓你對我們看到的那種坡道充滿信心？

Yes. Thanks, Steve, for the question. I think with respect to the supply base, we have seen a supply base that got, I would say, progressively worse over the course of 2021. And then really since the fourth quarter of '21, we characterize the supply base as just kind of persistent challenges. We wouldn't say that it's necessarily deteriorated over the course of 2022 or gotten better. It's just been persistently challenging throughout the first half of the year.

是的。謝謝史蒂夫，這個問題。我認為就供應基礎而言，我們已經看到供應基礎在 2021 年期間變得越來越糟。然後實際上自 21 年第四季度以來，我們將供應基礎描述為持續的挑戰。我們不會說它在 2022 年一定會惡化或變得更好。整個上半年，它一直充滿挑戰。

We would expect to see that continue -- that same environment to continue over the second half. So our guidance does contemplate kind of a similar level of choppiness in the supply base as we progress through the year. We don't necessarily see it moderating or getting better.

我們希望看到這種情況繼續下去——同樣的環境將在下半年繼續下去。因此，隨著我們全年的進展，我們的指導確實考慮了供應基礎中類似程度的波動。我們不一定會看到它正在緩和或變得更好。

I think what's a little bit interesting is the -- some of the root causes have changed quarter from quarter, but the end result has been the same, right? In the first quarter, we were primarily grappling with Omicron and a high degree of absenteeism. In the second quarter, we spent a lot of our time responding to recent global geopolitical events as well as lockdowns in China that are having an indirect impact on us through just the bottleneck of global logistics networks.

我認為有點有趣的是——一些根本原因每個季度都發生了變化，但最終結果是一樣的，對吧？在第一季度，我們主要與 Omicron 和高缺勤率作鬥爭。在第二季度，我們花費了大量時間來應對最近的全球地緣政治事件以及中國的封鎖，這些事件僅通過全球物流網絡的瓶頸對我們產生了間接影響。

So when we think about the rest of the year though, we would expect to see that continue a bit. And our guidance certainly contemplates that. And we think the current conditions do support our second half production schedule, and we do have confidence that we will get the parts that we need to complete those machines that are currently in inventory, ultimately having those ship in retail mostly in the third quarter, maybe a little bit in the fourth quarter there.

因此，當我們考慮今年餘下的時間時，我們希望看到這種情況會繼續下去。我們的指導肯定會考慮到這一點。我們認為目前的情況確實支持我們下半年的生產計劃，我們確實有信心獲得完成當前庫存機器所需的零件，最終這些零件主要在第三季度零售，也許在第四節有一點點。

Our next question or comment comes from Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

I think you mentioned you're taking orders for 2023 in Europe, and order books are opening next month on North America. So what's the pricing you expect to realize for these products next year given this year has been -- is shaping up to be a really strong year in terms of pricing?

我想您提到您將在歐洲接受 2023 年的訂單，並且下個月將在北美開放訂單。那麼考慮到今年，您預計明年這些產品的定價是多少？就定價而言，這將是一個非常強勁的一年？

With respect to order books, maybe before I even get to fiscal year '23, it's just important to note, fiscal year '22 is largely complete at this point for most of our product lines. We will have our early order programs open up for crop care in early June, which is fairly typical for our planters and sprayers. We would expect combines to begin sometime in the fall period. Again, that's fairly standard for us. For our rolling order books, we'll see Waterloo open up here in the next couple of weeks. And Mannheim has actually already opened up for fiscal year '23, and we're about 1/4 full for the first year or for the next fiscal year there.

關於訂單，也許在我進入 23 財年之前，重要的是要注意，對於我們的大多數產品線來說，此時 '22 財年已經基本完成。我們將在 6 月初為作物護理開放我們的早期訂單計劃，這對於我們的播種機和噴霧機來說是相當典型的。我們預計聯合收割機將在秋季的某個時候開始。同樣，這對我們來說是相當標準的。對於我們的滾動訂單簿，我們將在接下來的幾週內看到滑鐵盧在這裡開放。曼海姆實際上已經在 23 財年開放了，第一年或下一財年我們大約有 1/4 的空間。

And importantly, we are putting pauses in all of these order programs so that we do maintain a little bit of flexibility in pricing as we have an eye towards how material and freight costs are fluctuating into next year. With respect to our crop care early order program where we do have prices set, we are seeing pricing for crop care products in the high single digits for next year. So we would expect pricing to be above trend line for those products going into next year.

重要的是，我們正在暫停所有這些訂單計劃，以便我們在定價方面保持一點靈活性，因為我們關註明年材料和運費成本的波動情況。關於我們確實設定了價格的作物護理早期訂單計劃，我們看到明年作物護理產品的價格處於高個位數。因此，我們預計明年這些產品的定價將高於趨勢線。

Our next question or comment is from John Joyner from BMO.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 BMO 的 John Joyner。

So maybe asking Steve's question a slightly different way. When looking at the back half shipments, how do you envision the cadence of the ramp higher? Or maybe where are you run rating today versus the level that you expect to get to in the fourth quarter?

所以也許用稍微不同的方式問史蒂夫的問題。在查看後半部分出貨量時，您如何設想坡道的節奏更高？或者也許你今天的評級與你期望在第四季度達到的水平相比在哪裡？

Yes. Thanks, John, for the question. With respect to our cadence, we do expect to see a slightly different seasonal pattern than maybe what many investors have come to expect from Deere. Some of this had really been in our plans all along with the work stoppage in the first quarter, in the new product programs that we're launching like the X9 combine and the 9R tractor. So we'll see production progressively ramp each and every quarter, 2, 3 and then ultimately leading to the fourth quarter, which should likely be our highest quarter with respect to production. Part of what's boosting that as well again is just the completion of those semi-completed machines that are currently on Deere lots in our inventory. So that will also help.

是的。謝謝，約翰，這個問題。關於我們的節奏，我們確實希望看到與許多投資者對迪爾的預期略有不同的季節性模式。其中一些確實在我們的計劃中，隨著第一季度的停工，在我們推出的新產品計劃中，比如 X9 聯合收割機和 9R 拖拉機。因此，我們將看到每個季度、2、3 季度的產量逐漸增加，然後最終導致第四季度，這可能是我們產量最高的季度。再次推動這一點的部分原因只是完成了目前在我們庫存中的迪爾批次中的那些半成品機器。所以這也會有所幫助。

But keep in mind, too, when doing a comparison of '21 to the back half of '22, most of our UAW factories were shut down for the last couple of weeks of October. So that's going to give us a significant -- a higher number of production days in the fourth quarter of '22 than what we saw into '21. So those are some of the things that are impacting our back half of this year relative to what folks saw in the back half of '21. Thanks, John.

但也請記住，在比較 21 年和 22 年下半年時，我們的大多數 UAW 工廠在 10 月的最後幾週都關閉了。因此，這將給我們帶來顯著的收益——22 年第四季度的生產天數比我們在 21 年看到的要多。因此，相對於人們在 21 年下半年看到的情況，這些是影響我們今年下半年的一些事情。謝謝，約翰。

Our next question comes from Tim Thein from Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Tim Thein。

I just wanted to circle back with the comments on the spring EOP and the pricing that's been communicated to dealers. Josh, historically, how good of a reference point -- obviously, a lot of different products within PPA. But how good of a -- just proxy should we think of that to the segment as a whole, i.e., those planters and sprayers relative to large ag as a whole?

我只是想回顧一下關於春季 EOP 的評論以及已傳達給經銷商的定價。 Josh，從歷史上看，參考點有多好——顯然，PPA 中有很多不同的產品。但是，對於整個細分市場，即相對於整個大農業的那些播種機和噴霧器，我們應該將其視為一個多好的代理？

Yes. With respect to our EOP programs and how that serves as a proxy for other large ag product lines, it's a really important first data point for us, first, from just a demand perspective. Typically, what we see in the early order program for crop care does have some correlation to what we'll see for combines and tractors as well just from an overall demand perspective. As it relates to price increases, again, I would say that the pricing that we see for our crop care products, planters and sprayers, is generally fairly correlated to the pricing we'd see for large tractors and combines in the North America market.

是的。關於我們的 EOP 計劃以及它如何作為其他大型農業產品線的代理，這對我們來說是一個非常重要的第一個數據點，首先，從需求的角度來看。通常，從整體需求的角度來看，我們在作物護理的早期訂單計劃中看到的確實與我們將看到的聯合收割機和拖拉機有一定的相關性。由於它與價格上漲有關，我想說的是，我們看到的作物護理產品、播種機和噴霧器的價格通常與我們在北美市場看到的大型拖拉機和聯合收割機的價格相當相關。

You'll see different price as we look through other regions. As you think about a market like Brazil, we have maybe the most dynamic pricing capabilities there due to the way that we manage our order fulfillment process. And due to higher inflation there and fluctuating FX, you may see pricing in Brazil different and detached a little bit from what we do in our North American market. But other than that, I would say the read-through from our crop care products to other North American products is generally pretty good.

當我們瀏覽其他地區時，您會看到不同的價格。當您考慮像巴西這樣的市場時，由於我們管理訂單履行流程的方式，我們可能擁有那裡最具動態的定價能力。由於那裡的通貨膨脹率較高和外匯波動，您可能會看到巴西的定價有所不同，並且與我們在北美市場所做的有所不同。但除此之外，我會說從我們的作物護理產品到其他北美產品的通讀通常都非常好。

Tim, this is Josh. One other thing to add, too, that we'll watch really closely is what are we seeing with technology uptake in that early order program. And particularly when you look at planters and sprayers and given the increases in input costs and what we can deliver from a value point of view, we would say our value proposition on a lot of those things has gotten even better with higher input costs and being able to be more precise and more accurate to deliver better outcomes for our customers. So as we roll those out here, we'll be watching that closely, too, because we think there's a tremendous amount of opportunity with those features and tools.

蒂姆，這是喬希。另外，我們將密切關注的另一件事是，我們在早期訂單計劃中看到的技術採用情況。尤其是當您查看播種機和噴霧機時，考慮到投入成本的增加以及從價值的角度來看我們可以提供什麼，我們會說，隨著投入成本的增加和被能夠更精確和更準確地為我們的客戶提供更好的結果。因此，當我們在這裡推出這些功能時，我們也會密切關注，因為我們認為這些功能和工具有大量的機會。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

I'm wondering if you could just talk about for the construction and forestry business, now that you've completed the excavator technology acquisition, what's the impact on the margin profile of the business? And can you update us on your smart industrial strategy for C&F, specifically now that you have that entire product suite?

我想知道您是否可以只談談建築和林業業務，現在您已經完成了挖掘機技術的收購，對業務的利潤率有什麼影響？您能否向我們介紹您的 C&F 智能工業戰略，特別是現在您擁有完整的產品套件？

Yes. Thanks, Jerry. With respect to our construction and forestry division, this is really the first quarter that we are operating post the joint venture that we've historically held with Hitachi. Maybe just a quick update on how that's going so far. We still have a supply agreement with Hitachi, and they're still an incredibly important partner to us as we transition during this time. And so far, that has been a really great partnership, and operations have run very smoothly out of our Kernersville factory in North Carolina. So things are going really well on that front.

是的。謝謝，傑瑞。關於我們的建築和林業部門，這實際上是我們在與日立歷史上持有的合資企業之後運營的第一季度。也許只是快速更新到目前為止的進展情況。我們仍然與日立簽訂了供應協議，在我們過渡期間，他們仍然是我們非常重要的合作夥伴。到目前為止，這是一個非常好的合作夥伴關係，我們在北卡羅來納州克納斯維爾工廠的運營非常順利。所以這方面的事情進展順利。

Certainly, longer term, we would see this as margin accretive to us. And the way that we've accounted for that historically has put the excavator product line for us at a lower margin relative to other large earthmoving equipment. And so we do see an opportunity to improve that certainly. And in the short term, though, it may be hard to ferret out exactly what the impact to margins is given the noise of the gain on the remeasurement. But ex that, I think we'll see a little bit of margin accretion this year. But really, it's the out-years where I think that will continue to deliver for us.

當然，從長遠來看，我們會認為這會增加我們的利潤。歷史上我們考慮到這一點的方式使我們的挖掘機產品線相對於其他大型土方設備而言處於較低的利潤率。因此，我們確實看到了改善這一點的機會。然而，在短期內，考慮到重新測量的增益噪聲，可能很難準確找出對利潤率的影響。但除此之外，我認為今年我們會看到一點點利潤增長。但實際上，我認為這將繼續為我們帶來收益。

Yes. On the technology side, Jerry, I think like in ag, this is where technology can play a huge role in driving profitability and sustainability for our customers, and importantly, safety as well. So you think about labor challenges, skilled labor on the job site, a tool like SmartGrade effectively automates the job that someone with not a tremendous amount of experience can get in and perform a job as well as an experienced operator, reducing rework -- a time like today when contractors have more jobs than they can do and if I can reduce rework because I'm automating parts of the production system, that allows our customers to get more done.

是的。在技術方面，傑里，我認為就像在農業中一樣，技術可以在推動我們客戶的盈利能力和可持續性方面發揮巨大作用，更重要的是，安全性也是如此。因此，您考慮一下勞動力挑戰，工作現場的熟練勞動力，像 SmartGrade 這樣的工具可以有效地自動化工作，讓經驗不足的人可以像經驗豐富的操作員一樣進入並執行工作，從而減少返工 -像今天這樣的時候，承包商的工作量超出了他們的能力，如果我可以減少返工，因為我正在自動化生產系統的某些部分，這可以讓我們的客戶完成更多工作。

So this -- the smart industrial strategy and leveraging technology into construction, earthmoving, roadbuilding is a big opportunity. We're at the very early stages of this, but a lot of opportunity to create value for our customers. And we're going to continue to methodically work through that. Bringing the excavator in-house is a key step to unlock more value there.

因此，智能工業戰略和將技術應用於建築、土方、道路建設是一個巨大的機遇。我們正處於早期階段，但有很多機會為我們的客戶創造價值。我們將繼續有條不紊地解決這個問題。將挖掘機帶入內部是釋放更多價值的關鍵步驟。

Our next question or comment comes from David Raso from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

Can I first have the clarification of something that was said earlier? I think, Josh, you mentioned the machines still waiting on parts, if you look at the back half of the year's year-over-year growth, it represents close to 25%. Do you mean 25% year-over-year growth just from those machines shipping? Or do you mean of the needed growth in the back half of the year, roughly 1/4 of it, 25% of it is going come from the machines that are waiting for a partial?

我可以先澄清一下前面所說的嗎？我認為，喬希，您提到機器仍在等待零件，如果您查看今年下半年的同比增長，則接近 25%。您的意思是僅來自這些機器出貨量的年增長率為 25%？或者你的意思是今年下半年所需的增長，大約 1/4，其中 25% 來自等待部分的機器？

Yes. The latter. Of the growth that we see in the back half, 1/4 of it is effectively represented by those machines waiting on parts.

是的。後者。我們在後半部分看到的增長中，有 1/4 有效地體現在那些等待零件的機器上。

Okay. That's helpful. So that's the genesis of my question. It looks like the sequential growth from, say, the second quarter run rate for the rest of the year, I mean, it's principally in production and precision ag. And if you look at what's needed in the second half of the year, you basically need to be about 23% higher 2Q to what you average in 3Q and 4Q. So maybe it'd be helpful for us, can we just break that down? It sounds like the inventory part could be 10% of it, 10% or 11%, let's call it, using your math of that 23% sequential. Can you help us with the 2 other key pieces you alluded to? Pricing maybe is adding more dollars sequentially, right, from 2Q to 3Q.

好的。這很有幫助。所以這就是我的問題的起源。它看起來像是今年剩餘時間第二季度運行率的連續增長，我的意思是，主要是在生產和精密農業方面。如果你看看下半年的需求，你基本上需要比第三季度和第四季度的平均水平高出 23% 左右。所以也許它對我們有幫助，我們可以分解一下嗎？聽起來庫存部分可能是其中的 10%、10% 或 11%，讓我們稱之為，使用 23% 的連續數學。你能幫我們解決你提到的另外兩個關鍵部分嗎？從第二季度到第三季度，定價可能會按順序增加更多的美元。

And then also the production day comment, the shutdowns. Can you help us a little bit with what level of production day you'll have second half versus, say, what we ran in 2Q? Because I think getting that 23%, I mean, those are the 3 buckets, right? It's partially built inventory. Hey, we're going to take -- not take the shutdowns that we usually do, and then you get a little better pricing.

然後還有生產日評論，停工。您能否幫助我們了解下半場的生產日水平與我們在第二季度的生產水平？因為我認為獲得那 23%，我的意思是，那是 3 個桶，對吧？它是部分構建的庫存。嘿，我們將採取 - 而不是我們通常所做的關閉，然後你會得到更好的定價。

Yes. David, thanks for the question. You're absolutely right. Price is certainly a component of it. You saw us raise our price realization forecast for production and precision ag from 10% to 13%. If you look year-to-date for production and precision ag, I think we've averaged close to 10% in the first half of the year. So the implication on the last 2 quarters is that we'll get a little bit more than that. And so that's part of the explanation for the higher revenue year-over-year.

是的。大衛，謝謝你的問題。你是絕對正確的。價格當然是其中的一個組成部分。您看到我們將生產和精密 ag 的價格實現預測從 10% 提高到 13%。如果您查看今年迄今為止的生產和精密農業，我認為我們今年上半年的平均增長率接近 10%。所以最後兩個季度的含義是我們會得到更多。這就是收入同比增長的部分原因。

With respect to the shutdown period, it really varies factory by factory. Some factories shut down for a couple of weeks, and others shut down for more or less than that. So it really is dependent on what factory we're talking about. But net-net, the minimization of factory shutdowns, plus the lack of a work stoppage that we experienced in October of 2021, all contribute to higher production days year-over-year that help us support the build schedule that we have currently in place. Thanks, David.

關於停工期，確實因工廠而異。一些工廠關閉了幾個星期，而另一些工廠的關閉時間或多或少。所以這真的取決於我們所說的工廠。但是 net-net、工廠停工的最小化，加上我們在 2021 年 10 月經歷的沒有停工，所有這些都導致生產天數同比增加，這有助於我們支持我們目前製定的建造計劃.謝謝，大衛。

Our next question or comment comes from Michael Feniger from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自美國銀行的 Michael Feniger。

There's a lot of commentary right now in the market with consumers "trading" down. Obviously, farmers are facing higher input costs where there was reference to the sentiment indicators for farmers have weakened. I'm curious from your vantage point, have you seen any evidence of farmers trading down in just certain areas? I recognize that Deere's technology helps improve efficiencies for farmers. But is there any sticker shock being observed there? Are farmers trading down in certain product categories to kind of compensate for the higher input costs?

目前市場上有很多評論，消費者“交易”下降。顯然，農民正面臨更高的投入成本，因為農民的情緒指標已經減弱。從你的角度我很好奇，你有沒有看到農民在某些地區進行交易的證據？我認識到迪爾的技術有助於提高農民的效率。但是那裡是否觀察到任何貼紙衝擊？農民是否在某些產品類別中進行交易以補償較高的投入成本？

Thanks for the question. With respect to price, so far, what we've seen in 2022 is it hasn't had much of effect on demand. And as we noted, we're already seeing indication of interest for '23, even though some products may be above trend line price realization already for '23.

謝謝你的問題。關於價格，到目前為止，我們在 2022 年看到的是它對需求沒有太大影響。正如我們所指出的，我們已經看到對 23 年感興趣的跡象，即使某些產品可能已經高於 23 年的趨勢線價格實現。

Certainly, the material and freight inflation that we're experiencing on our end is real. And when we price for the following year, we take that into account to make sure that we maintain our price/cost ratios.

當然，我們正在經歷的物質和運費膨脹是真實的。當我們為下一年定價時，我們會考慮到這一點，以確保我們保持我們的價格/成本比。

If you think about the large ag customer to -- machinery is still a relatively smaller portion of their P&L. The bulk of their variable cost structure really relates to seed, fertilizer and chemicals. I mean the inputs is where the bulk of their variable costs have always been. And those variable costs are increasing at a much more significant rate than machinery costs. And in many cases, our machinery is lessening the usage and reliance on some of these inputs. So the more inflation that we see in chemical and fertilizer costs, in many cases, the more valuable our equipment has become to them.

如果您考慮大型農業客戶 - 機械仍然是其損益表中相對較小的一部分。它們的大部分可變成本結構實際上與種子、化肥和化學品有關。我的意思是投入是他們大部分可變成本一直存在的地方。而且這些可變成本的增長速度比機械成本要高得多。在許多情況下，我們的機器正在減少對其中一些投入的使用和依賴。因此，在許多情況下，我們在化學和化肥成本中看到的通脹越多，我們的設備對他們來說就變得越有價值。

I would make -- just kind of one other point on that is we have seen significant appreciation in used pricing as well, which has really been helpful for our customers who are purchasing new equipment. It's had the impact of limiting that trade differential for them, which has helped us price -- help us get the price we've been able to get this year and, I think, will be helpful as we look towards next year as well.

我想說 - 只是另一點，我們已經看到二手價格的顯著升值，這對我們購買新設備的客戶確實有幫助。它對限制他們的貿易差異產生了影響，這有助於我們定價 - 幫助我們獲得今年能夠獲得的價格，我認為，在我們展望明年時也會有所幫助。

Mike, it's Ryan. Maybe just quickly. We see our take rates for our tech that allow our customers to manage their P&L better. They continue to be very strong, and we would expect them to get stronger. So if anything, we see customers trading up, not down.

邁克，我是瑞恩。也許只是很快。我們看到我們的技術採用率可以讓我們的客戶更好地管理他們的損益。他們仍然非常強大，我們預計他們會變得更強大。因此，如果有的話，我們看到客戶交易上漲，而不是下跌。

Our next question comes from Steven Fisher from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Steven Fisher。

Brent, you just made a comment about used values in general. I guess I'm curious what you saw with used values in the quarter. Was there any particular strengthening there? And if so, should that be an incremental benefit to the FinCo? I guess related to that, I saw that you raised the provision for credit losses. Was that just for Russia? Or can you talk about why that would be and how that might kind of reconcile or relate to any sort of farmer income and farmer confidence?

布倫特，您剛剛對已使用的值進行了一般評論。我想我很好奇你在本季度看到的使用值。那裡有什麼特別的加強嗎？如果是這樣，這是否應該為 FinCo 帶來增量收益？我想與此有關，我看到你提高了信用損失準備金。那隻是為了俄羅斯嗎？或者你能談談為什麼會這樣，以及這可能如何調和或與任何形式的農民收入和農民信心有關嗎？

Yes. With respect to used pricing, we've seen it be pretty strong really for the last 12 to 18 months. I wouldn't say we had any change from that pattern in the second quarter. It's been consistently strong and consistently outpacing pricing for new equipment. As it relates to John Deere Financial, we'd say that we've really benefited from a higher average portfolio this year and very favorable credit conditions. You will see our provision for credit loss tick up a little bit in the second quarter, and part of that was due to the events in Russia and Ukraine.

是的。關於二手定價，我們已經看到它在過去 12 到 18 個月內非常強勁。我不會說我們在第二季度與這種模式有任何變化。它一直很強勁，並且一直超過新設備的價格。由於它與約翰迪爾金融公司有關，我們會說我們確實受益於今年更高的平均投資組合和非常有利的信貸條件。您會看到我們的信用損失準備金在第二季度略有上升，其中部分原因是俄羅斯和烏克蘭的事件。

And also just a really tough compare to 2Q '21, whereas the backdrop was improving significantly, I think we had a negative provision in the second quarter. So you're just seeing that normalize out. Our provision is still well below the 15-year average. So all in all, conditions for John Deere Financial remain very favorable.

與 21 年第二季度相比，這也是一個非常艱難的時期，儘管背景正在顯著改善，但我認為我們在第二季度有一個負撥備。所以你只是看到正常化了。我們的撥備仍遠低於 15 年的平均水平。所以總而言之，約翰迪爾金融的條件仍然非常有利。

And maybe just a quick comment on the lease book as well. We continue to see return rates decline. And really, at this point, they're almost -- for large ag, I would say, almost approaching 0 there. And then recovery rates on that, which does get returned, have been increasing for the last 18 months. So the quality of the JDF portfolio is really good right now, and we expect to see that continue in the interim.

也許只是對租賃書的快速評論。我們繼續看到退貨率下降。真的，在這一點上，他們幾乎 - 對於大型 ag，我想說，幾乎接近 0。然後，在過去的 18 個月中，確實得到了回報的回收率一直在增加。因此，JDF 投資組合的質量現在非常好，我們希望在此期間繼續看到這種情況。

Our next question or comment comes from Larry De Maria from William Blair.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 William Blair 的 Larry De Maria。

You made a comment earlier in the call that the average age was increasing, which is obviously one of the reasons why we're getting trade-ins because the farmers want to make their fleet younger. Can you talk a little bit maybe more specifically on the average age and also where are -- we are now? And how many years would it take, do you think, to get back towards some equilibrium kind of number where farmers are comfortable?

您在電話會議早些時候發表評論說平均年齡正在增加，這顯然是我們進行以舊換新的原因之一，因為農民希望讓他們的船隊更年輕。您能否更具體地談談平均年齡以及我們現在在哪裡？你認為需要多少年才能恢復到農民感到舒適的某種平衡數字？

As it relates to the fleet age, we have seen it age out -- really since 2013, I think we've aged out every year since then. And really what's led to the further aging of the fleet these last 2 years has really been the industry's inability to meet demand in '21 into '22. So overall, it's aged out a little bit even in '22, right, which means we haven't kind of fully hit volumes to replace the equipment that's coming out of the fleet. Tractors is where we see the most aging in '22. Combines, we actually did produce just enough to bend the age of the fleet down a little bit. We're still well above average there, but we at least produced enough to begin that process of replacing the combine fleet. Thanks, Larry.

由於它與船隊時代有關，我們已經看到它老化了——實際上自 2013 年以來，我認為從那時起我們每年都在老化。真正導致過去 2 年機隊進一步老化的真正原因是該行業無法滿足 21 年到 22 年的需求。所以總的來說，即使在 22 年，它也已經過時了，對，這意味著我們還沒有完全達到容量來更換從機隊出來的設備。拖拉機是我們在 22 年看到的最老化的地方。結合起來，我們實際上確實生產了足以讓艦隊的年齡稍微降低一點的產量。我們在那裡仍然遠高於平均水平，但我們至少生產了足夠的產品來開始更換聯合機隊的過程。謝謝，拉里。

Our next question or comment comes from Chad Dillard from Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 Bernstein 的 Chad Dillard。

I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about your industry view on small ag. It looks like you kept volume growth flat, but we've seen in the AEM data sales down to mid to high single digits, at least on a year-to-date basis. So can you just talk about like what gives you the confidence that we'll be able to kind of see growth in the second half? And then as it pertains to Deere, how are you guys thinking about restocking relative to retail demand?

我希望你能多談談你對小型農業公司的行業看法。看起來你保持銷量增長持平，但我們已經看到 AEM 數據銷售下降到中高個位數，至少在年初至今的基礎上。那麼你能談談是什麼讓你有信心我們將能夠在下半年看到增長嗎？然後就迪爾而言，你們如何考慮相對於零售需求的補貨？

Yes. With respect to our small ag and turf business, we've seen retail data come in really choppy there, and in some cases, down. I think there's a number of things that are impacting that in the interim. First and foremost, part of that is just exceedingly low inventory levels are probably starting to have an impact on retail settlements right now. That's been -- particularly as you get into things like utility vehicles, riding line equipment, compact utility tractors, those continue to be fairly scarce. So that is impacting, I think, the number of retail settlements.

是的。關於我們的小型農業和草皮業務，我們已經看到那裡的零售數據非常不穩定，在某些情況下甚至下降。我認為在此期間有很多事情會影響到這一點。首先，部分原因是極低的庫存水平現在可能開始對零售結算產生影響。那是——特別是當你進入多用途車、騎行設備、緊湊型多用途拖拉機之類的東西時，這些東西仍然相當稀缺。因此，我認為這會影響零售定居點的數量。

Also, we are seeing a little bit of an impact from just the late spring that we have here. Typically, early springs drive a lot of sale -- sales for those types of equipment. So that's certainly having an impact.

此外，我們在這裡看到了晚春的一些影響。通常，早春會推動大量銷售——這類設備的銷售。所以這肯定會產生影響。

Kind of further compounding the issue, though, is our small ag and turf business has probably been the most impacted by acute shortages, and I'm particularly here referring to riding line equipment and utility vehicles, where constraints around small engines has been a real factor, limiting volume, not just for Deere, but for the industry as a whole. And so we -- as we get through the year, we continue to see that be a governing factor ultimately on where volumes can go for small ag and turf.

然而，使問題進一步複雜化的是，我們的小型農業和草皮業務可能受到嚴重短缺的影響最大，我在這里特別指的是騎行線路設備和多功能車，其中小型發動機的限制是一個真正的問題因素，限制數量，不僅對迪爾，而且對整個行業都是如此。所以我們 - 隨著我們度過這一年，我們繼續看到這是最終決定小型農業和草皮銷量的決定因素。

Galia, anything you'd add to that?

加利亞，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Just to kind of give some ideas on where the market is right now. When you look at the protein prices, with the pork and also poultry all at record high and also milk demand continues to be very strong as well. So that's going to help support and help offset the rising feed cost. So I think the margin in that market is still looking pretty steady.

是的。只是想給出一些關於現在市場在哪裡的想法。當您查看蛋白質價格時，豬肉和家禽均創下歷史新高，牛奶需求也繼續非常強勁。因此，這將有助於支持並幫助抵消不斷上漲的飼料成本。所以我認為該市場的利潤率看起來仍然相當穩定。

It looks like we have one last caller.

看起來我們有最後一位來電者。

Our final question comes from Seth Weber from Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Seth Weber。

I guess just going back on the supply chain. I assume semiconductors is problematic. Is there anything else you'd call out there? And then just related to the semiconductors, is there -- so is the assumption -- is the message that the mix is disproportionately being hurt on the precision and the tech side because of the semiconductor issue there? Is that really weighing on mix and that should get better in the back half of the year as well? Is that the right way to think about it?

我想只是回到供應鏈上。我認為半導體是有問題的。你還有什麼要喊的嗎？然後只是與半導體有關，是否存在——假設也是如此——是否存在這樣的信息，即由於那裡的半導體問題，這種混合在精度和技術方面受到了不成比例的損害？這真的會對混合產生影響嗎，並且在今年下半年也會變得更好？這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yes. With respect to the supply chain, we are seeing issues be fairly broad-based. Our supply management team would describe it as whack-a-mole. Certainly, chips are an issue and will probably continue to be an issue as we work through the year. I would say, so far, we've managed that and have been able to keep that from having a material impact on mix of any kind. But as we look to the back half of the year, I would expect us not to single out any particular area of the supply base just due to the broad-based nature of it. I mean we're seeing challenges with castings and wire harnesses and hydraulics and pumps and tires. And it really just depends on the day in terms of what's causing challenges for us.

是的。關於供應鏈，我們看到的問題相當廣泛。我們的供應管理團隊會將其描述為“打地鼠”。當然，芯片是一個問題，並且在我們全年工作的過程中可能會繼續成為一個問題。我想說，到目前為止，我們已經做到了這一點，並且能夠防止它對任何類型的組合產生重大影響。但是，當我們展望今年下半年時，我希望我們不會僅僅因為供應基礎的廣泛性而單單挑出供應基礎的任何特定領域。我的意思是，我們看到了鑄件、線束、液壓系統、泵和輪胎方面的挑戰。就給我們帶來挑戰的原因而言，這真的取決於當天。

Fortunately, our supply management team has really done an excellent job of working through each of these as they come up. And we've been able to solve them without any material work stoppages or any particular mix issues to call out. Thanks, Seth. I believe that is our last caller. Thanks all. Appreciate it.

幸運的是，我們的供應管理團隊在完成每一項工作時確實做得非常出色。我們已經能夠在沒有任何實質性工作停工或任何特殊混合問題的情況下解決這些問題。謝謝，賽斯。我相信那是我們最後的來電者。謝謝大家。欣賞它。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連接。