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Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Deere & Company First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)
早上好,歡迎參加迪爾公司第一季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Josh Jepsen, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監 Josh Jepsen 先生。謝謝你。你可以開始了。
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Thanks, Robin. Hello. Good morning. Also on the call today are John May, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Ryan Campbell, CFO; Jill Sanchez, Manager of Sustainability and Investor Relations; and Brent Norwood, Manager, Investor Communications.
謝謝,羅賓。你好。早上好。今天的電話會議還有主席兼首席執行官約翰·梅;瑞安坎貝爾,首席財務官; Jill Sanchez,可持續發展和投資者關係經理;和投資者溝通經理 Brent Norwood。
Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's first quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal 2022. After that, we'll respond to your questions.
今天,我們將仔細研究迪爾第一季度的收益,然後花一些時間談論我們的市場和我們目前對 2022 財年的展望。之後,我們將回答您的問題。
Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.
請注意,今天上午的電話會議提供了幻燈片來補充。可以在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 上訪問它們。
First, a reminder. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.
首先,提醒一下。該電話正在互聯網上進行現場直播,並記錄下來以供 Deere & Company 將來傳輸和使用。未經 Deere 明確書面同意,嚴禁以任何其他方式使用、錄製或傳輸此版權廣播的任何部分。電話會議(包括問答環節)的參與者同意,他們在所有媒體中的肖像和評論可以被存儲並用作收益電話會議的一部分。
This call includes forward-looking comments concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K and periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
本次電話會議包括有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性評論,這些計劃和預測受到重大風險和不確定性的影響。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的其他信息包含在公司最近提交給證券交易委員會的 8-K 表格和定期報告中。
This call may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America or GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings & Events.
此呼籲可能包括不符合美國普遍接受的會計原則或 GAAP 的財務措施。有關這些措施的其他信息,包括與可比 GAAP 措施的對賬,包含在新聞稿中,並發佈在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的季度收益和事件下。
I'll now turn the call over to Brent Norwood.
我現在將把電話轉給布倫特諾伍德。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
John Deere completed the first quarter with sound execution despite managing through a very dynamic period. Financial results for the quarter included an 11% margin for the equipment operations. Strong ag fundamentals carried over from fiscal year '21 and have remained solid through the beginning of fiscal year '22, with our order books largely full through the balance of the year. Meanwhile, construction and forestry markets also continue to benefit from strong demand and price realization, contributing to the division's solid performance in the quarter.
儘管管理經歷了一個非常充滿活力的時期,約翰迪爾還是以良好的執行力完成了第一季度。本季度的財務業績包括設備運營 11% 的利潤率。強勁的農業基本面從 21 財年延續至今,並在 22 財年年初保持穩健,我們的訂單在今年餘下時間基本已滿。同時,建築和林業市場也繼續受益於強勁的需求和價格實現,為該部門在本季度的穩健表現做出了貢獻。
Slide 3 shows the results for the first quarter. Net sales and revenues were up 5% to $9.569 billion while net sales for the equipment operations were up 6% to $8.531 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $903 million or $2.92 per diluted share.
幻燈片 3 顯示了第一季度的結果。淨銷售額和收入增長 5% 至 95.69 億美元,而設備業務的淨銷售額增長 6% 至 85.31 億美元。歸屬於迪爾公司的淨收入為 9.03 億美元或每股攤薄收益 2.92 美元。
Now let's turn to a review of our Production & Precision Ag business starting on Slide 4. Net sales of $3.356 billion were up 9% compared to the first quarter last year, primarily due to price realization and higher shipment volumes. Price realization in the quarter was positive by about 8 points and currency translation was negative by roughly 2 points. Operating profit was $296 million, resulting in a 9% operating margin for the segment compared to a 21% margin for the same period last year. The year-over-year decrease was due to higher production costs and an unfavorable sales mix. The higher production costs were largely the result of higher material and freight costs as well as lower overhead absorption at the factories affected by the delayed ratification of our labor agreement. These items were partially offset by the improved price realization and higher shipment volumes.
現在讓我們從幻燈片 4 開始回顧我們的生產和精密 Ag 業務。與去年第一季度相比,淨銷售額為 33.56 億美元,增長了 9%,這主要是由於價格實現和出貨量增加。本季度的價格實現為正值約 8 個百分點,貨幣換算為負值約 2 個百分點。營業利潤為 2.96 億美元,該部門的營業利潤率為 9%,而去年同期為 21%。同比下降是由於較高的生產成本和不利的銷售組合。較高的生產成本主要是由於材料和運費成本增加,以及受延遲批准我們的勞工協議影響的工廠的間接費用吸收較低。這些項目被提高的價格實現和更高的出貨量部分抵消。
The most recent quarter was negatively affected by the UAW contract ratification bonus, while the prior period benefited from a favorable indirect tax ruling in Brazil.
最近一個季度受到美國汽車工人聯合會合同批准獎金的負面影響,而上一季度則受益於巴西有利的間接稅裁決。
Shifting focus to Small Ag & Turf on Slide 5. Net sales were up 5%, totaling $2.631 billion in the first quarter as price realization more than offset lower shipment volumes. Price realization in the quarter was positive by just over 6 points while currency translation was negative by about 1 point. For the quarter, operating profit was down year-over-year at $371 million, resulting in a 14.1% operating margin. The decreased profit was primarily due to higher production costs and a combination of lower sales and an unfavorable sales mix. These items were partially offset by price realization.
在幻燈片 5 上將重點轉移到小型農業和草坪。第一季度淨銷售額增長 5%,總計 26.31 億美元,因為價格實現超過了出貨量下降的影響。本季度的價格實現為正值略高於 6 個百分點,而貨幣換算為負值約 1 個百分點。本季度,營業利潤同比下降 3.71 億美元,營業利潤率為 14.1%。利潤下降主要是由於生產成本增加以及銷售額下降和銷售組合不利所致。這些項目被價格實現部分抵消。
Slide 6 shows our industry outlook for ag and turf markets globally. In the U.S. and Canada, we expect industry sales of large ag equipment to be up approximately 20%, reflecting another strong year of demand. In fiscal year '21, customer demand outpaced the industry's ability to supply, driven by the combination of strong fundamentals, advanced fleet age and low field inventory. With all these dynamics still present in fiscal year '22, we expect demand to exceed the industry's ability to produce for a second consecutive year as supply-based delays continue to constrain shipments. Order books for the upcoming year are mostly full, except for a few cases where we've paused orders to allow us to reevaluate inflationary pressures later in the year.
幻燈片 6 顯示了我們對全球農業和草皮市場的行業展望。在美國和加拿大,我們預計大型農業設備的行業銷售額將增長約 20%,反映出需求又一個強勁的年份。在 21 財年,在強勁的基本面、先進的機隊年齡和低現場庫存的共同推動下,客戶需求超過了行業的供應能力。由於所有這些動態在 22 財年仍然存在,我們預計需求將連續第二年超過該行業的生產能力,因為基於供應的延遲繼續限制出貨量。來年的訂單大多已滿,除了少數我們暫停訂單以允許我們在今年晚些時候重新評估通脹壓力的情況。
In the Small Ag & Turf segment, we expect industry sales in the U.S. and Canada to remain largely flat for the year as supply challenges continue to limit the industry's ability to produce. Following 2 years of robust demand, field inventory levels are at multiyear lows and unlikely to begin recovery until sometime in 2023.
在小型農業和草坪領域,我們預計今年美國和加拿大的行業銷售額將基本持平,因為供應挑戰繼續限制該行業的生產能力。在經歷了 2 年的強勁需求之後,現場庫存水平處於多年低位,並且不太可能在 2023 年某個時候開始恢復。
Moving on to Europe. The industry is forecasted to be up roughly 5% as higher commodity prices strengthen business conditions in the arable segment and dairy prices remain resilient even as we're starting to see modest pressure on margins from rising input costs. We expect the industry will continue to face supply-based constraints resulting in demand outstripping production for the year. At this time, our order book extends through the duration of fiscal year '22.
繼續前往歐洲。由於大宗商品價格上漲加強了可耕種領域的商業狀況,並且乳製品價格保持彈性,儘管我們開始看到投入成本上升對利潤率造成適度壓力,因此預計該行業將上漲約 5%。我們預計該行業將繼續面臨基於供應的限制,導致今年需求超過產量。目前,我們的訂單將持續到 '22 財年。
In South America, we expect industry sales of tractors and combines to increase between 5% to 10%. Farmer sentiment and profitability remain at all-time highs as our customers benefit from robust commodity prices, record production and a favorable currency environment. Our order books reflect the strong sentiment and currently extends into May, which is as far as we've allowed it to grow.
在南美,我們預計拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷售額將增長 5% 至 10%。由於我們的客戶受益於強勁的商品價格、創紀錄的產量和有利的貨幣環境,農民的情緒和盈利能力保持在歷史最高水平。我們的訂單反映了強烈的情緒,目前延續到 5 月,這是我們允許的增長。
Industry sales in Asia are forecasted to be flat as India, the world's largest tractor market by units, moderates from record volumes achieved in 2021.
亞洲的工業銷售預計將持平,因為印度是世界上最大的拖拉機市場,其銷量低於 2021 年的創紀錄銷量。
Moving on to our segment forecasts, beginning on Slide 7. For Production & Precision Ag, net sales are now forecasted to be up between 25% to 30% in fiscal year '22. The forecast assumes about 10 points of positive price realization for the full year and roughly 2 points of currency headwind. For the segment's operating margin, our full year forecast is now between 21% and 22%, reflecting consistently solid financial performance across all geographic regions.
繼續我們的細分市場預測,從幻燈片 7 開始。對於生產和精密 Ag,現在預計 22 財年的淨銷售額將增長 25% 至 30%。該預測假設全年價格實現正值約 10 個點,貨幣逆風約 2 個點。對於該部門的營業利潤率,我們現在的全年預測在 21% 至 22% 之間,反映了所有地理區域的持續穩健的財務業績。
Slide 8 shows our forecast for the Small Ag & Turf segment. We now expect net sales in fiscal year '22 to be up about 15%. This guidance includes 8 points of positive price realization and 2 points of currency headwind. The segment's operating margin is forecasted between 15.5% and 16.5%. The decreased sales guidance relative to our previous forecast reflects supply challenges, particularly with limitations around small engines, while higher material and freight costs are pressuring margins.
幻燈片 8 顯示了我們對小型農業和草坪細分市場的預測。我們現在預計 22 財年的淨銷售額將增長約 15%。該指引包括 8 個正價格實現點和 2 個貨幣逆風點。該部門的營業利潤率預計在 15.5% 至 16.5% 之間。與我們之前的預測相比,銷售指引的下降反映了供應挑戰,特別是小型發動機的限制,而更高的材料和運費成本正在給利潤率帶來壓力。
Now let's focus on Construction & Forestry on Slide 9. For the quarter, net sales of $2.544 billion were up 3%, primarily due to price realization and higher shipment volumes. Last year, Wirtgen's 1-month reporting lag was eliminated, resulting in 4 months of Wirtgen activity in the first quarter of 2021, which increased net sales by $270 million. Operating profit moved slightly higher year-over-year to $272 million, resulting in an 11% operating margin due to price realization, partially offset by higher production costs and lower sales and unfavorable sales mix. The higher production costs were largely a result of higher material and freight costs as well as poor overhead absorption at the factories affected by the delayed ratification of our labor agreement. Additionally, the current period was impacted by the ratification bonus, while last year's results included impairments of long-lived assets.
現在讓我們關注幻燈片 9 上的建築和林業。本季度,淨銷售額為 25.44 億美元,增長 3%,主要是由於價格實現和出貨量增加。去年,維特根消除了 1 個月的報告滯後,導致維特根在 2021 年第一季度開展了 4 個月的活動,淨銷售額增加了 2.7 億美元。營業利潤同比略增至 2.72 億美元,由於價格實現,營業利潤率為 11%,部分被較高的生產成本和較低的銷售額以及不利的銷售組合所抵消。較高的生產成本主要是由於材料和運費成本增加,以及受延遲批准我們的勞工協議影響的工廠的間接費用吸收不佳。此外,本期受到批准紅利的影響,而去年的結果包括長期資產的減值。
Let's turn to our 2022 Construction & Forestry industry outlook on Slide 10. Industry sales of earthmoving equipment in North America are expected to be up between 5% to 10%, while the compact construction market is now forecasted to be flat to up 5%. End markets for earthmoving and compact equipment are expected to remain strong in our fiscal year '22 forecast, benefiting from continued strength in the housing market, increased activity in the oil and gas sector as well as strong CapEx programs from the independent rental companies. The decrease in our compact construction equipment outlook is entirely due to supply constraints affecting those product lines. Overall, demand for earthmoving and compact construction equipment is expected to exceed our production for the year, resulting in continued low inventory levels.
讓我們看看幻燈片 10 上的 2022 年建築和林業行業展望。北美土方設備的行業銷售額預計將增長 5% 至 10%,而緊湊型建築市場現在預計將持平至 5%。在我們的 22 財年預測中,土方和緊湊型設備的終端市場預計將保持強勁,這得益於房地產市場的持續強勁、石油和天然氣行業活動的增加以及獨立租賃公司強大的資本支出計劃。我們緊湊型建築設備前景的下降完全是由於影響這些產品線的供應限制。總體而言,預計對土方和緊湊型建築設備的需求將超過我們今年的產量,導致庫存水平持續偏低。
Demand related to infrastructure has yet to materialize and will likely begin in fiscal year '23. Global road-building markets are expected to be up between 5% to 10%, with growth in the North American market offsetting some weakness in China. In forestry, we expect the industry to be up 10% to 15% as lumber production looks to remain at elevated levels throughout the year, with lumber prices rising again after coming down from peaks last summer.
與基礎設施相關的需求尚未實現,可能會在 23 財年開始。全球道路建設市場預計將增長 5% 至 10%,北美市場的增長抵消了中國的一些疲軟。在林業方面,我們預計該行業將增長 10% 至 15%,因為木材產量全年保持在較高水平,木材價格從去年夏天的高峰迴落後再次上漲。
Moving to the C&F segment outlook on Slide 11. Deere's Construction & Forestry 2022 net sales are forecasted to be up between 10% to 15%. Our net sales guidance for the year includes 8.5 points of positive price realization and 2 points of negative currency impact. We are maintaining our outlook for the segment's operating margin at between 13.5% and 14.5%. The year is benefiting from increases in price and volume and a lack of onetime items from the prior year.
轉到幻燈片 11 上的 C&F 部門前景。迪爾的建築和林業 2022 年淨銷售額預計將增長 10% 至 15%。我們今年的淨銷售額指引包括 8.5 個正價格實現點和 2 個負貨幣影響點。我們將該部門的營業利潤率前景維持在 13.5% 至 14.5% 之間。今年受益於價格和數量的增加以及上一年的一次性物品的缺乏。
Let's move now to our Financial Services operations on Slide 12. Worldwide Financial Services net income attributable to Deere & Company in the first quarter was $231 million, benefiting from income earned on higher average portfolio balances and improved performance of our operating-lease residual values. For fiscal year 2022, we maintain our net income outlook at $870 million as the segment is expected to continue to benefit from a higher average portfolio balance.
現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 12 上的金融服務業務。第一季度歸屬於 Deere & Company 的全球金融服務淨收入為 2.31 億美元,這得益於更高的平均投資組合餘額和我們的經營租賃殘值業績的改善。對於 2022 財年,我們將淨收入前景維持在 8.7 億美元,因為該部門預計將繼續受益於更高的平均投資組合餘額。
Slide 13 outlines our guidance for net income, our effective tax rate and operating cash flow. For fiscal year '22, we are raising our outlook for net income to be between $6.7 billion and $7.1 billion. The full year forecast is inclusive of the impact of higher raw material prices and logistics costs. At this time, our forecasted price realization is expected to outpace both material and freight cost for the entire year, though we were price cost negative in the first quarter and expect the second quarter to include our highest material and freight inflationary costs when compared to last year. As we progress through the second half of the year, we expect those material and freight comparisons to improve.
幻燈片 13 概述了我們對淨收入、有效稅率和經營現金流的指導。對於 22 財年,我們將淨收入預期提高到 67 億美元至 71 億美元之間。全年預測包括原材料價格上漲和物流成本的影響。目前,我們預測的價格實現預計將超過全年的材料和運費成本,儘管我們在第一季度的價格成本為負值,並且預計第二季度將包括與上一季度相比最高的材料和運費通脹成本年。隨著我們在下半年的進展,我們預計這些材料和運費的比較會有所改善。
Moving on to tax, our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate projected to be between 25% and 27%. Lastly, cash flow from equipment operations is now expected to be in the range of $6.2 billion to $6.6 billion and includes a $1 billion voluntary contribution to our OPEB plan, which occurred in the first quarter.
繼續稅收,我們的指導包含預計在 25% 至 27% 之間的有效稅率。最後,設備運營的現金流現在預計在 62 億美元至 66 億美元之間,其中包括對我們第一季度 OPEB 計劃的 10 億美元自願捐款。
At this time, I'll turn things over to John May, our Chairman and CEO, for some comments on the company's new Leap Ambitions. John?
在這個時候,我將把事情交給我們的董事長兼首席執行官 John May,就公司的新 Leap Ambitions 發表一些評論。約翰?
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. Thanks, Brent. First, I just want to convey how incredibly excited I am to announce our new Leap Ambitions. We are uniquely positioned to deliver both economic and sustainable outcomes for our customers, employees and our broader stakeholders. These goals demonstrate the enormous opportunity in front of us, and I firmly believe that our greatest potential still lies ahead.
是的。謝謝,布倫特。首先,我只想表達我對宣布我們新的 Leap Ambitions 感到非常興奮。我們具有獨特的優勢,可以為我們的客戶、員工和更廣泛的利益相關者提供經濟和可持續的成果。這些目標展示了擺在我們面前的巨大機遇,我堅信我們最大的潛力仍在前方。
Before launching into the framework of our new Leap Ambitions, I first want to revisit the journey we've taken to get to this point. Almost 2 years ago, we launched our smart industrial strategy. Through that process, we really accomplished 4 things. We reorganized the company around the way our customers do business, which we call production systems. We focused our capital allocation on differentiated value-creating solutions. We also centralized our technology development under a CTO, our Chief Technology Officer, and created a group dedicated entirely to life cycle solutions.
在開始我們新的 Leap Ambitions 框架之前,我首先想回顧一下我們為達到這一點所採取的旅程。大約 2 年前,我們啟動了智能工業戰略。通過這個過程,我們真的完成了 4 件事。我們圍繞客戶開展業務的方式重組了公司,我們稱之為生產系統。我們將資本配置集中在差異化的價值創造解決方案上。我們還將我們的技術開發集中在我們的首席技術官 CTO 之下,並創建了一個完全致力於生命週期解決方案的小組。
Our financial and operating results over the last 2 years demonstrate the tangible impact of our operating model. By organizing our company to mirror our customers' production systems, we gained incredible insights on how to best unlock increased value for them. The new structure also allowed us to further empower our team, giving us agility to respond more quickly to the ever-changing market conditions we faced over the last 2 years.
我們過去 2 年的財務和經營業績證明了我們經營模式的切實影響。通過組織我們的公司來反映我們客戶的生產系統,我們獲得了關於如何最好地為他們釋放更多價值的令人難以置信的見解。新結構還使我們能夠進一步增強團隊的能力,使我們能夠更敏捷地對過去 2 年所面臨的不斷變化的市場條件做出反應。
In addition, we overhauled our capital allocation framework, enabling us to exit business that were unprofitable or didn't fit our strategy. We then redeployed that capital to the parts of our business that are the most differentiated and aligned to our strategy. And though the centralization of our tech stack, we've been able to drive leverage across our businesses and make significant investments in technology, strengthening our capabilities in digital, automation, autonomy and electrification. I am incredibly proud of what our employees have accomplished throughout one of the most dynamic periods in the company's history.
此外,我們徹底改革了資本配置框架,使我們能夠退出無利可圖或不符合我們戰略的業務。然後,我們將這些資本重新部署到我們業務中最具差異化且符合我們戰略的部分。儘管我們技術堆棧的集中化,我們已經能夠提高我們業務的槓桿作用,並在技術上進行大量投資,加強我們在數字化、自動化、自治和電氣化方面的能力。我為我們的員工在公司歷史上最具活力的時期之一所取得的成就感到無比自豪。
Amazingly, we executed all these changes during a global pandemic, a ramp in customer demand and significant supplier and labor challenges. These challenges introduced a high level of uncertainty, but our team really powered through it to strengthen our foundation for the future. Quite frankly, introducing this amount of change during such a dynamic period, it felt risky at times, but I've come through it convinced more today than ever that it will be -- it was absolutely necessary to position our company for the opportunity ahead of us and energize our team to achieve new levels of performance.
令人驚訝的是,我們在全球大流行、客戶需求激增以及供應商和勞動力面臨重大挑戰期間執行了所有這些變化。這些挑戰帶來了高度的不確定性,但我們的團隊確實通過它來加強我們未來的基礎。坦率地說,在如此充滿活力的時期引入如此多的變化,有時會讓人覺得有風險,但我今天比以往任何時候都更加確信這將是——絕對有必要為我們的公司定位未來的機會並激勵我們的團隊達到新的績效水平。
In just a short period of time, we've made significant progress on our financial goals that we set back at my first Analyst Day in 2020 and are delivering value-creating technologies to our customers at a rapid pace, such as the recent unveiling of our autonomous 8R, an automated tillage tool that we launched at CES.
在短短的時間內,我們在 2020 年第一個分析師日設定的財務目標方面取得了重大進展,並正在快速向我們的客戶提供創造價值的技術,例如最近推出的我們在 CES 上推出的自動耕作工具 8R。
I'm also convinced that to realize our full potential, we must set even higher goals. The actions we took over the last 2 years were the foundational steps required for us to define our next steps of Ambitions. The reorganization of the company and a structurally improved financial position were critical steps that position us to make the investments required to identify and achieve these new goals.
我也堅信,要充分發揮我們的潛力,我們必須設定更高的目標。我們在過去 2 年採取的行動是我們定義下一步 Ambitions 所需的基本步驟。公司的重組和結構上改善的財務狀況是我們進行必要投資以識別和實現這些新目標的關鍵步驟。
So with that context, I am excited to share our new goals, our Leap Ambitions, which will help us achieve our company's purpose of both delivering economic and sustainable value for our customers over the next decade. Our Leap Ambition framework has 3 simple components: First, we size the incremental market opportunity, then we identify the key actions required, and lastly, we define the desired outcomes we hope to achieve. The journey to develop our Leap Ambitions started with sizing the new value-creating opportunities ahead of us.
因此,在這種情況下,我很高興與大家分享我們的新目標,即我們的飛躍雄心,這將幫助我們實現公司的目標,即在未來十年為我們的客戶提供經濟和可持續的價值。我們的 Leap Ambition 框架包含 3 個簡單的組件:首先,我們衡量增量市場機會,然後我們確定所需的關鍵行動,最後,我們定義我們希望實現的預期結果。發展我們的飛躍雄心的旅程始於評估我們面前的新價值創造機會。
Through the work of our production systems teams, we've developed deep insights into the jobs our customers do, enabling us to deliver better quantify areas where our technology and solutions can unlock economic headroom for our customers. So across our 3 businesses, we see over $150 billion in incremental addressable market for Deere. That figure represents the new opportunity for all the stakeholders across the applicable acres, job sites in which our products and solutions operate. This is entirely ahead of us and represents a tremendous opportunity for top line and margin growth over the remainder of the decade. This growth will provide a continued path for Deere to share in that value creation, rewarding employees, dealers and shareholders for the investments being made.
通過我們的生產系統團隊的工作,我們對客戶所做的工作有了深入的了解,使我們能夠更好地量化我們的技術和解決方案可以為客戶釋放經濟空間的領域。因此,在我們的 3 項業務中,我們看到迪爾的增量可尋址市場超過 1500 億美元。該數字代表了我們產品和解決方案運行的適用土地、工作地點的所有利益相關者的新機會。這完全領先於我們,代表著未來十年收入和利潤率增長的巨大機會。這種增長將為迪爾提供一條持續分享價值創造的途徑,獎勵員工、經銷商和股東的投資。
After identifying the size of the opportunity, we then define the key executional drivers by segment required to unlock that value. We did this to offer more insight into some of the key growth investments we are making. Progressing our capabilities in digitalization, autonomy, automation and electrification are key to creating both value for our customers and revenue growth for Deere. So our future investment profile will reflect this focus.
在確定機會的規模後,我們然後按細分市場定義解鎖該價值所需的關鍵執行驅動因素。我們這樣做是為了更深入地了解我們正在進行的一些關鍵增長投資。提升我們在數字化、自動化、自動化和電氣化方面的能力是為我們的客戶創造價值和為迪爾創造收入增長的關鍵。因此,我們未來的投資概況將反映這一重點。
Additionally, we identified executional drivers applicable to all 3 segments such as connected machines and business model transformation, which are each critical enablers of the Ambitions.
此外,我們確定了適用於所有 3 個領域的執行驅動因素,例如互聯機器和業務模式轉型,它們都是雄心壯志的關鍵推動力。
Lastly, our Leap Ambitions include measurable financial and sustainable outcomes. Due to the structural improvements we have made over the last 2 years, we've made clear progress on our 15% margin goal and have set our sight even higher. By 2030, we see a path to 20% margins at the equipment operations level. That goal includes the impact of the increase in growth of investments required to deliver the next generation of advanced technologies to our customers.
最後,我們的飛躍雄心包括可衡量的財務和可持續成果。由於我們在過去 2 年中所做的結構性改進,我們在 15% 的利潤率目標上取得了明顯進展,並將我們的目標設定得更高。到 2030 年,我們看到設備運營層面的利潤率將達到 20%。該目標包括增加向我們的客戶提供下一代先進技術所需的投資增長的影響。
It's also important to note that we aligned our environmental goals with our financial goals because, for us, the 2 are intertwined. Executing our business plan will help us and, importantly, our customers in achieving both financial and sustainable outcomes without having to choose one over the other, something you will see clearly in our sustainability report, which we just published today as well.
同樣重要的是要注意,我們將環境目標與財務目標保持一致,因為對我們來說,兩者是相互交織的。執行我們的業務計劃將幫助我們,更重要的是,我們的客戶實現財務和可持續成果,而無需選擇其中之一,您將在我們今天剛剛發布的可持續發展報告中清楚地看到這一點。
Our latest sustainability goals include improvements upon our existing suite of eco-efficiency goals. While the bar to include a Scope 3 reduction target, we raised that bar for our Scope 3 target reduction as well as enhanced customer outcomes through reduced use of costly inputs with high carbon footprints.
我們最新的可持續發展目標包括對我們現有的一套生態效率目標的改進。雖然包括減少範圍 3 目標的門檻,但我們提高了降低範圍 3 目標的門檻,並通過減少使用高碳足蹟的昂貴投入來提高客戶成果。
Overall, I'm incredibly proud of the progress we've made and of the Leap Ambitions, which are possible because of our smart industrial strategy and demonstrate the tremendous growth opportunity that lies ahead.
總體而言,我為我們所取得的進步和飛躍雄心感到無比自豪,這得益於我們明智的工業戰略,並展示了未來巨大的增長機會。
With that, I'll turn things back over to Brent.
有了這個,我會把事情交給布倫特。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Thanks, John. Before we open up the line for Q&A, we'll first address a few of the likely questions around the quarter as well as some of the details of our new Leap Ambitions. To cover the range of topics, I'll engage today's call participants to provide some additional color, and then we'll open up the line for additional questions.
謝謝,約翰。在我們開啟問答環節之前,我們將首先解決本季度可能出現的一些問題,以及我們新的 Leap Ambitions 的一些細節。為了涵蓋主題範圍,我將邀請今天的電話參與者提供一些額外的顏色,然後我們將打開其他問題的線路。
First, I'd like to start with the current environment across our businesses. John, can you provide some additional color around our execution in the quarter?
首先,我想從我們業務的當前環境開始。約翰,您能否為我們在本季度的執行提供一些額外的顏色?
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes, Brent. First, I really want to start with thanking our employees for overcoming a lot of adversity in the quarter. As you can see from the results, our factories were able to ramp up production rather quickly throughout the quarter. In fact, the AEM data, which is shown on Slide 20, shows that we outpaced the industry for the quarter in all but one of the categories. That is an amazing feat when you consider that many of our factories were down for 5 weeks because of work disruption.
是的,布倫特。首先,我真的要感謝我們的員工在本季度克服了很多逆境。正如您從結果中看到的那樣,我們的工廠能夠在整個季度相當快地提高產量。事實上,幻燈片 20 中顯示的 AEM 數據顯示,我們在本季度的所有類別中都超過了行業,但其中一個類別除外。當您考慮到我們的許多工廠因工作中斷而停工 5 週時,這是一項了不起的壯舉。
The credit for this impressive performance goes first to factory employees, who did an outstanding job post ratification of our labor agreement, and next to our dealers who have managed through delays due to both supply chain challenges and work stoppages at our factories. They have done an incredible work rescheduling deliveries and making the necessary accommodations ahead of planting season to ensure our customers' needs are taken care of.
這一令人印象深刻的表現首先歸功於工廠員工,他們在批准我們的勞動協議後表現出色,其次是我們的經銷商,他們因供應鏈挑戰和工廠停工而成功應對延誤。他們在重新安排交貨時間和在種植季節之前提供必要的住宿方面做了令人難以置信的工作,以確保我們客戶的需求得到照顧。
It's worth noting that our supply base will likely remain challenged throughout fiscal year 2022. Issues continue to arise and our guidance contemplates successful resolution of these issues without significant disruptions. Components with heavy labor content remain in tight supply. And of course, semiconductor availability will continue to be limited throughout the year. Our supply management teams are working tirelessly on mitigation actions such as multi-sourcing, additional investments in supplier tooling and even, in some cases, helping our suppliers with supplemental John Deere labor. While the operating environment has been challenging, our supply partners are working with us to solve these challenges. I am proud of our collective efforts to get products into our customers' hands as soon as possible in this challenging environment.
值得注意的是,我們的供應基礎可能在 2022 財年仍將面臨挑戰。問題繼續出現,我們的指導考慮在不造成重大中斷的情況下成功解決這些問題。勞動力含量高的零部件供應仍然緊張。當然,全年半導體的可用性將繼續受到限制。我們的供應管理團隊不知疲倦地致力於緩解措施,例如多采購、對供應商工具的額外投資,甚至在某些情況下,幫助我們的供應商補充約翰迪爾勞動力。儘管運營環境充滿挑戰,但我們的供應合作夥伴正在與我們合作解決這些挑戰。我為我們在這個充滿挑戰的環境中盡快將產品交到客戶手中所做的集體努力感到自豪。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
What can you tell us about the demand environment? Are supply-based challenges cooling demand at all?
關於需求環境,您能告訴我們什麼?基於供應的挑戰是否會冷卻需求?
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
Not at all, Brent. As you noted, our order books across all of our businesses are mostly full for the year, except in a few cases where we paused orders to allow for more price -- dynamic pricing. Our guidance does reflect order restrictions where our supply base has constrained our ability to produce. In fact, fiscal year 2022 will be the second year in a row in which the industry demand has outstripped supply. That's why we are already getting interest in our model year 2023 products. While we haven't opened up model year 2023 yet, we'll likely get started on that in the second quarter of the year.
一點也不,布倫特。正如您所指出的,我們所有業務的訂單在今年大部分都已滿,除了在少數情況下我們暫停訂單以允許更高的價格 - 動態定價。我們的指導確實反映了我們的供應基地限制了我們的生產能力的訂單限制。事實上,2022 財年將是行業需求連續第二年超過供應。這就是為什麼我們已經對我們的 2023 年款產品產生了興趣。雖然我們尚未開放 2023 年款,但我們可能會在今年第二季度開始著手。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Thanks, John. That's helpful color commentary on the quarter. Let's pivot to the company's new Leap Ambitions. First, help us understand the timing of these goals. Why now, 2 years into the smart industrial strategy?
謝謝,約翰。這是對本季度有用的顏色評論。讓我們轉向公司新的 Leap Ambitions。首先,幫助我們了解這些目標的時間安排。為什麼現在,進入智能產業戰略 2 年?
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
As I noted earlier, the first 2 years of the smart industrial operating model were about repositioning the organization. There were a lot of structural shifts needed before we could set goals that truly reflect our potential. We've worked -- we've done a lot of work with our org design, also with our capital allocation process and standing up our CTO organization and have put -- and that has put us in a position where we can achieve these ambitions.
正如我之前提到的,智能工業運營模式的前兩年是關於重新定位組織。在我們設定真正反映我們潛力的目標之前,需要進行大量的結構性轉變。我們已經工作了——我們在組織設計、資本分配流程和支持我們的 CTO 組織方面做了很多工作,並且已經投入——這使我們處於能夠實現這些雄心壯志的位置.
We also had a suite of legacy goals that were sunsetting in fiscal year 2022, so the timing worked out well in that respect. I'd also like to point out that the new goals contain both 4- and 8-year horizons, highlighting that longer lead times will be required to achieve some of our goals.
我們還有一套遺留目標,這些目標將在 2022 財年到期,因此在這方面時間安排得很好。我還想指出,新目標包含 4 年和 8 年的視野,強調實現我們的一些目標需要更長的交付週期。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
There's certainly a lot more goals than we've disclosed in the past. Can you talk through the framework for our goals and explain why this suite of goals, Ambitions, is more comprehensive than years past?
肯定有比我們過去披露的更多的目標。您能否談談我們的目標框架,並解釋為什麼這套目標(Ambitions)比過去幾年更加全面?
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes, I'd be happy to, Brent. You're right. In the past, we publicly highlighted our financial goals. Usually, it would be a margin goal or an SVA type of goal. And then we had some eco-efficiency goals, which were publicized less and not explicitly connected to our strategy. When we updated our strategy in 2020, it was clear that sustainability was going to be an integral part of our strategy and that the future goals would need to be better conveyed and with a lot more prominence.
是的,我很樂意,布倫特。你說得對。過去,我們公開強調了我們的財務目標。通常,它是保證金目標或 SVA 類型的目標。然後我們有一些生態效率目標,這些目標很少被宣傳,並且與我們的戰略沒有明確的聯繫。當我們在 2020 年更新我們的戰略時,很明顯,可持續性將成為我們戰略的一個組成部分,未來的目標需要得到更好的傳達,更加突出。
Well, there are a lot of different goals, the framework is relatively simple. It starts with identifying the new opportunities to create value. We call that incremental addressable market. Then we identified the key executional drivers required to unlock that incremental market. Last, we defined the outcomes we expect to generate, both in terms of financial and sustainable outcomes for Deere and our customers. Where Deere's position is truly unique is that a singular strategy will deliver better financial returns for Deere and its stakeholders. It will also deliver aligned positive, sustainable outcomes. The alignment between the 2 is a key motivator for our team.
嗯,有很多不同的目標,框架比較簡單。首先是識別創造價值的新機會。我們稱之為增量可尋址市場。然後,我們確定了解鎖增量市場所需的關鍵執行驅動因素。最後,我們定義了我們期望產生的結果,包括迪爾和我們的客戶的財務和可持續結果。 Deere 的真正獨特之處在於,單一戰略將為 Deere 及其利益相關者帶來更好的財務回報。它還將提供一致的積極、可持續的成果。兩者之間的一致性是我們團隊的關鍵動力。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Let's jump into some of the specifics. While we've touched on the concept at a high level, what do you mean by incremental addressable market? And can you give an example?
讓我們進入一些細節。雖然我們已經從高層次上談到了這個概念,但增量可尋址市場是什麼意思?你能舉個例子嗎?
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Sure, this is Josh. I can take that one. Through the work of the production systems teams, we attempt to quantify the total value of a new or prospective solution that we'll deliver. And if we use ag as an example, we multiply that value by the addressable acres to arrive at the incremental addressable market figure. The total value represents the entirety of the economic headroom unlock that will then be shared by Deere, our customers and other industry stakeholders.
當然,這是喬希。我可以拿那個。通過生產系統團隊的工作,我們試圖量化我們將提供的新的或預期的解決方案的總價值。如果我們以 ag 為例,我們將該值乘以可尋址英畝數,得出增量可尋址市場數字。總價值代表整個經濟空間釋放,然後將由 Deere、我們的客戶和其他行業利益相關者共享。
So our figure here is forward-looking, does not include solutions that are already in the market today, things like ExactEmerge or ExactApply. See & Spray Ultimate is an easy example to follow. Simply put, See & Spray vastly reduces the amount of herbicide required to grow a crop. The incremental addressable market would calculate the herbicide savings per acre multiplied by the addressable acres. That's the value of the solution that gets shared between Deere, customers and other stakeholders.
所以我們這裡的數字是前瞻性的,不包括當今市場上已經存在的解決方案,比如 ExactEmerge 或 ExactApply。 See & Spray Ultimate 是一個簡單易學的例子。簡而言之,See & Spray 大大減少了種植作物所需的除草劑用量。增量可尋址市場將計算每英畝除草劑節省乘以可尋址英畝數。這就是在 Deere、客戶和其他利益相關者之間共享的解決方案的價值。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
So the ambitions include several executional drivers, such as goals around digital engagement, electrification and business model transformation. John, can you talk about the rationale to include these type of goals?
因此,雄心壯志包括幾個執行驅動因素,例如圍繞數字參與、電氣化和商業模式轉型的目標。約翰,你能談談包含這些類型目標的理由嗎?
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
Sure, Brent. We've always had internal goals around key executional items that help us deliver our business results. By making these public, we can help investors and stakeholders better understand our top priorities and give a better insight to the things we need to execute to unlock the immense opportunity ahead.
當然,布倫特。我們一直圍繞關鍵執行項目制定內部目標,以幫助我們實現業務成果。通過公開這些信息,我們可以幫助投資者和利益相關者更好地了解我們的首要任務,並更好地洞察我們需要執行的事情以釋放未來的巨大機會。
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
Yes. Brent, this is Ryan. I'd like to add on to that by noting some of the key themes in our executional drivers. They should be familiar to those that have been following us but they are worth additional commentary. The segment-specific goals largely center around digitization, automation, autonomy and electrification. The inclusion of these themes in our Leap Ambitions indicates the focus of our capital allocation plans.
是的。布倫特,這是瑞恩。我想通過指出我們執行驅動程序中的一些關鍵主題來補充這一點。那些一直關注我們的人應該熟悉它們,但它們值得額外評論。特定細分市場的目標主要圍繞數字化、自動化、自治和電氣化。將這些主題納入我們的 Leap Ambitions 表明了我們資本分配計劃的重點。
As it relates to autonomy, you might ask why we don't have a specific call out in our Production & Precision Ag segment. With our acquisition of Bear Flag Robotics and our CES announcement of our fully autonomous 8R, we are aggressively working to deliver on these products and expand our offerings. In this segment, we've been working on autonomy for the last few years and felt we did not need a separate, specific executional call-out at this point. Expect to see an increasing portion of our capital allocation weighted to these themes through R&D, CapEx and M&A. The structural improvements that we have made over the last few years were critical for us to be able to accelerate our investments in these key growth areas while also generating higher operating returns. These investments are key drivers for our ability to unlock the significant opportunity in front of us.
由於它與自治有關,您可能會問為什麼我們在生產和精密 Ag 部分沒有具體的呼籲。隨著我們對 Bear Flag Robotics 的收購以及我們在 CES 上宣布我們的全自動 8R,我們正在積極努力交付這些產品並擴展我們的產品。在這一部分中,我們在過去幾年一直致力於自主性,並且認為我們此時不需要單獨的、具體的執行調用。預計通過研發、資本支出和併購,我們將有越來越多的資本分配分配給這些主題。我們在過去幾年中所做的結構性改進對於我們能夠加快在這些關鍵增長領域的投資同時產生更高的運營回報至關重要。這些投資是我們能夠釋放擺在我們面前的重大機遇的關鍵驅動力。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Thanks, Ryan. Let's pivot to some of the outcomes included in our Leap Ambitions, starting with our sustainability goals. First, I'd like to ask Jill to update us on the status of our existing sustainability goals that will sunset in 2022.
謝謝,瑞恩。讓我們從我們的可持續發展目標開始,關注我們飛躍雄心中包含的一些成果。首先,我想請 Jill 向我們介紹我們現有的可持續發展目標的狀態,這些目標將於 2022 年失效。
Jill Sanchez
Jill Sanchez
Sure, Brent. Thanks. So we're definitely still committed to seeing our existing goals sweep through to the end of 2022. We feel good about achieving success there, with our progress on Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions being a real standout. We just published our 2021 Sustainability Report today, and you can see our progress on these goals to date in that report.
當然,布倫特。謝謝。因此,我們絕對仍然致力於看到我們現有的目標一直持續到 2022 年底。我們對在那裡取得成功感到高興,我們在範圍 1 和 2 溫室氣體排放方面的進展非常出色。我們今天剛剛發布了 2021 年可持續發展報告,您可以在該報告中看到迄今為止我們在這些目標上取得的進展。
Also, as you look at the Leap Ambitions, you'll notice that we will continue to focus on the key areas that were covered by our 2022 goals, but we're raising the bar for ourselves in those areas as we look to the future.
此外,當您查看 Leap Ambitions 時,您會注意到我們將繼續專注於 2022 年目標所涵蓋的關鍵領域,但隨著我們展望未來,我們將在這些領域為自己提高標準.
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
What about some of the new goals we're stacking on top of our existing ones? Which one of those new goals stands out for you, Jill?
我們在現有目標之上製定的一些新目標呢?吉爾,這些新目標中的哪一個讓你印象深刻?
Jill Sanchez
Jill Sanchez
Yes. We have added a few more key areas that we'll be focusing on going forward. One of the most significant to highlight is the inclusion of Scope 3 targets. There, we have committed to working with the Science Based Targets initiative to align on a pathway for us to achieve a 30% reduction in our Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions, which includes a focus on our products as well as our supply chain by 2030. To accomplish this, we are actively exploring and innovating alternative power solutions that will address the emissions of the products we produce.
是的。我們增加了一些我們將重點關注的關鍵領域。最需要強調的一項是包含範圍 3 目標。在那裡,我們承諾與基於科學的目標倡議合作,為我們制定一條途徑,以實現我們的範圍 3 溫室氣體排放量減少 30%,其中包括到 2030 年將重點放在我們的產品和供應鏈上。為實現這一目標,我們正在積極探索和創新替代能源解決方案,以解決我們生產的產品的排放問題。
And as you look at the full picture of the Leap Ambitions, you'll see that this goal is directly linked to some of the executional drivers we have around electrification and demonstrating the viability of low- and no-carbon power solutions by 2026.
當您查看 Leap Ambitions 的全貌時,您會發現這一目標與我們在電氣化方面的一些執行驅動因素直接相關,並展示了到 2026 年低碳和無碳電力解決方案的可行性。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
And what about goals pertaining to customer outcomes? What can you tell us about those?
與客戶成果有關的目標又如何呢?你能告訴我們什麼?
Jill Sanchez
Jill Sanchez
Sure. In a lot of respects, the underlying themes around our ag customer outcome goals are not new at all for us. As we've demonstrated in last year's sustainability report as well as the report we just published today, our strategy has already been delivering solutions that unlock better economic and sustainable outcomes for our customers.
當然。在很多方面,圍繞我們的農業客戶成果目標的潛在主題對我們來說一點也不新鮮。正如我們在去年的可持續發展報告以及我們今天剛剛發布的報告中所展示的那樣,我們的戰略已經在提供解決方案,為我們的客戶帶來更好的經濟和可持續成果。
In the past, we focused a lot on the economic piece as we've worked on product development and going to market with our product solutions. Going forward, we will, for sure, continue to focus on the economic piece, but you can expect to see us balancing that with the sustainability element as well. As an organization, this means we'll be working throughout the development process to demonstrate and measure the impact that our technologies and solutions have not only on profitability and productivity but also on the carbon footprint and environmental impact of our customers' operations.
過去,當我們致力於產品開發和將產品解決方案推向市場時,我們將重點放在經濟方面。展望未來,我們肯定會繼續專注於經濟部分,但您也可以期待看到我們在這方面與可持續發展元素取得平衡。作為一個組織,這意味著我們將在整個開發過程中努力展示和衡量我們的技術和解決方案不僅對盈利能力和生產力的影響,而且對我們客戶運營的碳足跡和環境影響的影響。
As precision technologies continue to reduce the inputs used per unit of output, the environmental impact of generating that output improves. And this is increasingly of interest in our customer base for a variety of reasons. First, our customers are seeing that the customers they serve are increasingly interested in traceability. Second, new markets are emerging such as carbon trading markets that present completely new revenue opportunities for our customers. And third, jurisdictions around the world are implementing new regulations that impact how our customers can execute their jobs.
隨著精密技術不斷減少每單位產出使用的投入,產生該產出的環境影響得到改善。出於各種原因,這對我們的客戶群越來越感興趣。首先,我們的客戶看到他們所服務的客戶對可追溯性越來越感興趣。其次,新市場正在出現,例如碳交易市場,為我們的客戶帶來全新的收入機會。第三,世界各地的司法管轄區正在實施影響我們的客戶如何執行其工作的新法規。
So through our precision tools and digital operations center, we feel confident we can address all of these by making our customers more profitable, while also positioning them to continue serving their customers' dynamic needs, enabling them to access these new markets and easing their regulatory burdens.
因此,通過我們的精密工具和數字運營中心,我們有信心通過讓我們的客戶獲得更多利潤來解決所有這些問題,同時也使他們能夠繼續滿足客戶的動態需求,使他們能夠進入這些新市場並放鬆監管負擔。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Thanks, Jill. Let's change focus for a bit to the goals pertaining to business model transformation and financial outcomes. Starting with the goal to reach 10% recurring revenue by 2030. Ryan, can you comment on the reason for its inclusion and give some expectations for what that journey may look like over the next few years?
謝謝,吉爾。讓我們稍微改變一下與商業模式轉型和財務成果相關的目標。從到 2030 年達到 10% 經常性收入的目標開始。Ryan,您能否評論一下將其納入其中的原因,並對未來幾年的旅程可能會是什麼樣子提出一些期望?
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
Yes, Brent. The goal reflects that the nature of our solutions is changing. Many of our future solutions will have a higher component of software and machine learning content. They will also evolve and improve over time. We'll have the ability to support these products well after the point of sale through over-the-air updates that add new capabilities or productivity enhancements. As a result, we'll adapt our business model to reflect the continual value creation and improving nature of the solution sets. More total solutions will feature a renewable license component to them versus pricing almost exclusively at the point of sale.
是的,布倫特。該目標反映了我們解決方案的性質正在發生變化。我們未來的許多解決方案都將包含更高的軟件和機器學習內容。它們也將隨著時間的推移而發展和改進。我們將有能力通過無線更新在銷售點之後很好地支持這些產品,這些更新增加了新的功能或生產力增強。因此,我們將調整我們的業務模式,以反映解決方案集的持續價值創造和改進性質。與幾乎完全在銷售點定價相比,更多的整體解決方案將具有可更新的許可證組件。
While it will take some time to build the base of recurring revenue, we see the potential for a future less dependent on the number of units of new equipment sales, which should help decrease the amplitude of our business cycle. And just as important, there's a significant customer benefit to this shift as future solutions may require a smaller upfront capital outlay versus the value created and also more closely match the payments to delivery of value. We think this will push adoption faster and deeper into the installed base, and different business models can also make some technologies more accessible to a broader set of producers.
雖然建立經常性收入的基礎需要一些時間,但我們認為未來的潛力可能會減少對新設備銷售單位數量的依賴,這應該有助於降低我們業務週期的幅度。同樣重要的是,這種轉變為客戶帶來了巨大的利益,因為未來的解決方案可能需要比所創造的價值更小的前期資本支出,並且更接近地匹配支付與價值交付。我們認為這將推動採用更快、更深入的安裝基礎,並且不同的商業模式也可以使一些技術更容易被更廣泛的生產者使用。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
So our Leap Ambitions show that we are revising our equipment operations through cycle margin goal from 15% up to 20%. How did you arrive at the 20% goal?
因此,我們的飛躍雄心表明,我們正在通過將周期利潤率目標從 15% 提高到 20% 來修改我們的設備運營。你是如何達到 20% 的目標的?
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
Keep in mind that the 20% is a through-cycle target compared to the 15% we have today. The 20% through-cycle target balances the investments that we will make to capitalize on this unique opportunity but also delivers continued margin improvement. It also balances the business model evolution to more recurring revenue, which will have some short-term margin trade-offs that ultimately should lead to increased margins and reduce variability in our performance over the long term.
請記住,與我們今天的 15% 相比,20% 是一個貫穿週期的目標。 20% 的全週期目標平衡了我們為利用這一獨特機會而進行的投資,同時也帶來了持續的利潤率提升。它還平衡了商業模式演變與更多經常性收入,這將有一些短期利潤權衡,最終將導致利潤增加並減少我們長期業績的可變性。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Can you go into a little more detail on the journey to achieve that 20% target?
您能否詳細介紹一下實現 20% 目標的過程?
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
Yes. Sure, Brent. Although we're not providing a growth rate or longer-term revenue target, we clearly expect growth to be the key driver in our ability to generate higher returns. Let me focus on one aspect of that growth, precision technologies. Previously, we have discussed the ways in which we monetize precision features, including through our base equipment, adding options for newer technologies that allow customers to do jobs better and finally through subscriptions. When we develop solutions and monetize them in this way, we have grown the revenue and increased the margin in our business. This is shown by the performance in the Production & Precision Ag segment over the last few years.
是的。當然,布倫特。儘管我們沒有提供增長率或長期收入目標,但我們顯然預計增長將成為我們產生更高回報能力的關鍵驅動力。讓我專注於這種增長的一個方面,即精密技術。之前,我們已經討論了我們通過精確功能獲利的方式,包括通過我們的基礎設備、為允許客戶更好地完成工作的新技術添加選項,最後通過訂閱。當我們開發解決方案並以這種方式將其貨幣化時,我們增加了收入並增加了業務利潤。過去幾年在生產和精密 Ag 領域的表現表明了這一點。
The journey for the PPA segment to date has been largely through monetizing solutions by adding them to base and by increasing take rates on additional features, to a much lesser extent on subscriptions. With the new strategy, the PPA business is now poised to grow the recurring revenue aspect of their business, which we believe can add higher margin potential over time.
迄今為止,PPA 細分市場的旅程主要是通過將解決方案添加到基礎和提高附加功能的使用率來實現貨幣化,而訂閱的程度要小得多。有了新戰略,PPA 業務現在準備增加其業務的經常性收入方面,我們相信隨著時間的推移可以增加更高的利潤率潛力。
The Small Ag & Turf and Construction & Forestry portions of our business are in the earlier stages of leveraging precision technologies to drive performance. Similar to the journey that PPA has been on, there's potential of margin expansion through increasing the base utilization of our precision offers as well as developing additional value-enhancing features and options for customers. As we progress on the execution of our strategy, there will also be more opportunities for building recurring revenue in these areas.
我們業務的小型農業和草坪以及建築和林業部分正處於利用精密技術推動績效的早期階段。與 PPA 一直在進行的旅程類似,通過提高我們精準產品的基本利用率以及為客戶開發額外的增值功能和選項,有可能擴大利潤。隨著我們在戰略執行方面的進展,在這些領域也將有更多的機會來建立經常性收入。
We are confident in executing our margin target as we have been on the precision journey in parts of our business for some time and can see the results in our performance. In those areas, we are ready to begin the next phase. In other parts of the business, we can improve the unit revenue and margin performance through precision features, while we put the building blocks in place to unlock the next levels of value.
我們有信心執行我們的利潤目標,因為我們已經在部分業務中進行了一段時間的精確之旅,並且可以看到我們的業績結果。在這些領域,我們準備開始下一階段。在業務的其他部分,我們可以通過精確功能提高單位收入和利潤率表現,同時我們將構建塊放置到位以釋放下一個價值水平。
For sure, there are other areas that will contribute to our margin improvement targets, but growth and more specifically, growth in precision technology is expected to be the primary driver.
當然,還有其他領域將有助於實現我們的利潤率提高目標,但增長,更具體地說,精密技術的增長預計將成為主要驅動力。
It's also worth noting that we have made significant progress on structural margin improvement over the last few years. And our new Ambitions give us good line of sight towards structurally achieving 20% on a through-cycle basis. To the extent we accomplish this ahead of 2030, we will update our goal accordingly.
還值得注意的是,過去幾年我們在結構性利潤率改善方面取得了重大進展。我們新的雄心壯志為我們提供了良好的視野,可以在整個週期的基礎上實現 20% 的結構性目標。如果我們在 2030 年之前實現這一目標,我們將相應地更新我們的目標。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Thanks, Ryan. That's really helpful. Let's switch gears here a little bit. We made a big announcement at CES regarding autonomy. How have customers responded? And where does this rank on priorities over the coming years?
謝謝,瑞恩。這真的很有幫助。讓我們在這裡稍微切換一下。我們在 CES 上發布了關於自治的重大聲明。客戶的反應如何?這在未來幾年的優先事項中排名在哪裡?
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. Brent, let me start with this and give you my thoughts and then I'd love to hear from Ryan as well. We've been working on autonomy for the last few years and always knew, always knew it would offer significant customer value. Even so, the response we got from our dealers and our customers was even greater than we imagined. The need for autonomy is here today. The demand for the solution is real. We already have customers paying for autonomy this spring. But we are still rolling it out on a limited basis.
是的。布倫特,讓我從這個開始,給你我的想法,然後我也很想听聽 Ryan 的意見。在過去的幾年裡,我們一直致力於自主性,並且一直都知道,一直都知道它會為客戶帶來巨大的價值。即便如此,我們從經銷商和客戶那裡得到的反應比我們想像的還要大。今天就需要自治。對解決方案的需求是真實的。今年春天,我們已經有客戶為自動駕駛付費。但我們仍在有限的基礎上推出它。
That said, we are very, very excited by how we see this scaling over the next few years. While we will scale to many more acres for the tillage solution, we are also working on scaling to additional jobs like planting and additional machine forms. More than any other technology, autonomy will scale deeper and faster, and we are really excited by that.
也就是說,我們對未來幾年這種規模的擴大感到非常非常興奮。雖然我們將為耕作解決方案擴大到更多英畝的土地,但我們也在努力擴大到種植和其他機器形式等額外工作。與任何其他技術相比,自主性將更深入、更快地擴展,我們對此感到非常興奮。
What's also important to note, and I have some pride in this because of my relationship with Blue River, it's important to note that the leverage we are getting from our Blue River Technology acquisition, they were able to utilize the same machine learning platform that they built for See & Spray to deliver our first autonomy solution. Augmenting Blue River's capabilities with the outstanding talent and technology from Bear Flag Robotics will really ensure John Deere continues to win in autonomy.
還需要注意的是,由於我與 Blue River 的關係,我對此感到有些自豪,重要的是要注意我們從 Blue River Technology 收購中獲得的影響力,他們能夠利用與他們相同的機器學習平台專為 See & Spray 打造,旨在提供我們的第一個自主解決方案。借助 Bear Flag Robotics 的傑出人才和技術增強 Blue River 的能力,將真正確保 John Deere 繼續贏得自主權。
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
John, this is Ryan. Just one thing to add to that. As we work to achieve our goal of 10% recurring revenue, autonomy will play a significant role. Along with further development of our sense and act platform, delivering these new technologies will be key in building our base of recurring revenue streams in addition to driving overall top line growth.
約翰,這是瑞恩。只需添加一件事。在我們努力實現 10% 經常性收入的目標時,自主權將發揮重要作用。隨著我們的感知和行動平台的進一步發展,除了推動整體收入增長外,提供這些新技術將成為我們建立經常性收入流基礎的關鍵。
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
Brent Norwood - Manager of Investor Communications
That's really helpful. We have one last question. We are making big growth investments and setting lofty ambitions. Can you talk about the investment we're making in our people to ensure that we execute this strategy?
這真的很有幫助。我們有最後一個問題。我們正在進行大規模的增長投資並設定遠大的抱負。您能談談我們為確保我們執行這一戰略而對員工進行的投資嗎?
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes, it's a great question, Brent. People are our #1 asset, and we would not have enjoyed the success we had last year without their hard work. Our goal there won't -- it will not change. We want to have the best talent, the best teams and we want to provide the best place to work. Our people are the foundation of our strategy. They are the ones driving the deep customer understanding within each production system. They are the ones developing the technology for the new tech stack and deploying that across the enterprise. They are coming up with the new ways to support our customers that we have never been able to do in the past.
是的,這是一個很好的問題,布倫特。人是我們的第一資產,如果沒有他們的辛勤工作,我們就不會享受去年的成功。我們的目標不會——它不會改變。我們希望擁有最好的人才,最好的團隊,我們希望提供最好的工作場所。我們的員工是我們戰略的基礎。他們是推動每個生產系統中深入了解客戶的因素。他們是為新技術堆棧開發技術並在整個企業中部署的人。他們正在想出新的方法來支持我們的客戶,這是我們過去無法做到的。
We would not have achieved the success that we have had up to this point without our world-class employees, and we will not achieve our success going forward without them. We've got the best employees in the industry, hands down.
如果沒有我們世界一流的員工,我們就不會取得迄今為止的成功,沒有他們,我們也不會取得成功。我們擁有業內最優秀的員工,毫無疑問。
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Now we're ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call. The operator will instruct.
現在我們準備開始電話的問答部分。操作員將進行指示。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。
Jerry David Revich - VP
Jerry David Revich - VP
I'm wondering if you could talk about the top line contribution that you're expecting by 2030 out of the $150 billion TAM. So you've outlined what looks like about a $5-plus billion tailwind from subscription. Can you just talk about, from a high-level standpoint, any other contributions? And what proportion of the TAM do you expect Deere's value capture to be over time?
我想知道您是否可以談談您預計到 2030 年在 1500 億美元的 TAM 中的最高貢獻。因此,您已經概述了訂閱帶來的 5 多億美元的順風。您能否從高層次的角度談談其他任何貢獻?您認為隨著時間的推移,迪爾的價值獲取佔 TAM 的比例是多少?
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
That's the industry -- sorry, if you couldn't hear me, Jerry. The industry -- the value that we can create $150 billion is at the highest level. If you think about how does that work its way down to Deere, I think there's a couple of steps. It's what is our market share and then what is the share of value between customer and the company. So those would be the components to work that down from $150 billion to what would impact our top line. And as John and Ryan mentioned, as we execute and work to unlock the value through the goals that we've laid out today, we think there's a significant amount of opportunity not just between here and 2030, but 2030 and beyond.
這就是行業——對不起,如果你聽不見我的話,傑瑞。行業——我們可以創造1500億美元的價值處於最高水平。如果您考慮到 Deere 是如何工作的,我認為有幾個步驟。這是我們的市場份額,然後是客戶和公司之間的價值份額。因此,這些將是從 1500 億美元降到影響我們收入的因素。正如 John 和 Ryan 所提到的,當我們執行並努力通過我們今天制定的目標來釋放價值時,我們認為不僅從現在到 2030 年,而且在 2030 年及以後,都存在大量機會。
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. Maybe just to add. Josh, you had some great points there. This is John. A couple of things for you to think through. If you look at the smart industrial journey and where we've been and how we've executed over the last 2 years, our focus has been on, first of all, deeply understanding our customers' production systems. And once we do that, we know where we have the greatest opportunity to provide product, technology and solutions that unlocks value for the customer that may come in the form of lower input costs or make them in the form of our higher yields or even both. The benefit back to Deere is more revenue, more margin on a per unit basis.
是的。也許只是為了補充。喬希,你有一些很好的觀點。這是約翰。有幾件事讓你思考。如果您看看智能工業之旅以及我們在過去 2 年中的發展歷程以及我們的執行方式,我們的重點首先是深入了解客戶的生產系統。一旦我們這樣做了,我們就知道我們有最大的機會來提供產品、技術和解決方案,從而為客戶釋放價值,這些價值可能以較低的投入成本或以我們更高的產量或什至兩者兼而有之的形式出現.回到迪爾的好處是更多的收入,更多的單位利潤。
This next set of Leap Ambitions really allows us to do a couple of things. One, we've gone deeper, deeper into these production systems, and we have identified even greater opportunities to create value for our customers. At the same time, we've unlocked new technologies that we didn't have access to over the last 2 years. That would be digitalization, automation, autonomy and electrification. You're going to see us invest heavily in those new technologies and continue to provide that value to the customer and build out that new revenue base for us and more profitability for our customers.
下一組 Leap Ambitions 確實允許我們做一些事情。第一,我們對這些生產系統進行了越來越深入的研究,我們發現了為客戶創造價值的更大機會。同時,我們解鎖了過去 2 年我們無法使用的新技術。那將是數字化、自動化、自治和電氣化。您將看到我們在這些新技術上投入巨資,並繼續為客戶提供價值,並為我們建立新的收入基礎,並為我們的客戶創造更多的盈利能力。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Courtney Yakavonis。
Courtney Yakavonis - Research Associate
Courtney Yakavonis - Research Associate
If we could just go back to some of the comments you had on the 10% recurring revenue path. Can you just remind us, I think you're less than 1% recurring revenue today, but do you have any guideposts? I know you put out some other 2026 goals, but should this be a very linear ramp or are there certain product launches where we should be expecting a pretty significant jump over the years? And then I think you had mentioned some short-term margin trade-offs as a result of this new business model. Can you just comment specifically on what those short-term trade-offs you were talking about were?
如果我們可以回到您對 10% 經常性收入路徑的一些評論。你能提醒我們一下,我認為你今天的經常性收入不到 1%,但你有什麼指南嗎?我知道你提出了其他一些 2026 年目標,但這應該是一個非常線性的斜坡,還是有某些產品發布,我們應該期待這些年來會有相當大的飛躍?然後我認為您提到了由於這種新的商業模式而導致的一些短期利潤權衡。您能否具體評論一下您所說的那些短期權衡是什麼?
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Thanks, Courtney. The -- you're right. Today, the recurring revenue that we have is relatively small, primarily focused around guidance, subscriptions in terms of correction signals. So it is a small portion today. And we will begin building that with -- as we get out this year with See & Spray Ultimate and the autonomous solution that John mentioned. So that will start the foundation. We would not expect that it's linear. It will take time to build that base and to see that grow. So that's the way that we would frame that up, the way we're thinking about that today.
謝謝,考特尼。 ——你是對的。今天,我們的經常性收入相對較小,主要集中在指導、訂閱方面的修正信號。所以今天只是一小部分。我們將開始構建它——因為我們今年推出了 See & Spray Ultimate 和約翰提到的自動解決方案。所以這將啟動基礎。我們不會期望它是線性的。建立這個基礎並看到它的成長需要時間。所以這就是我們構建它的方式,也是我們今天思考的方式。
As it relates to trade-offs, the question there is really, as you make some shift to moving from monetizing at point of sale to on a more recurring basis, we do expect to see some of that revenue really then move out of the upfront sale of the equipment and then incurred or received as we deliver that value on a more regular basis, whether that's per year or by usage, et cetera.
因為它與權衡有關,所以確實存在的問題是,當您從銷售點的貨幣化轉變為更經常性的基礎時,我們確實希望看到其中一些收入真正從前期轉移設備的銷售,然後隨著我們更定期地交付該價值而產生或收到,無論是每年還是按使用量等等。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Steven Fisher, UBS.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Steven Fisher。
Steven Fisher - Executive Director and Senior Analyst
Steven Fisher - Executive Director and Senior Analyst
A lot to clarify on the very exciting Leap Ambitions but maybe just to focus for a minute on the near term. It was obviously a really nice beat, given the significant number of challenges that you had in the quarter. But the raise was a little bit less than the beat of consensus. I know it was consensus, not your numbers. But wondering if you could just share your general thoughts on the rest of the year. To what extent are things getting more predictable and where they might be getting more predictable and where less predictable and kind of where you feel you need to bake in a little bit more caution in the outlook? Long question, but if you can provide some color.
很多關於非常令人興奮的飛躍雄心的澄清,但也許只是在短期內集中註意力。鑑於您在本季度面臨的大量挑戰,這顯然是一個非常好的節拍。但是加薪比共識的節拍要少一點。我知道這是共識,而不是你的數字。但是想知道你是否可以分享你對今年剩餘時間的一般想法。事情在多大程度上變得更可預測,哪些地方可能變得更可預測,哪些地方更不可預測,以及您認為在哪些地方需要更加謹慎地看待前景?很長的問題,但如果你能提供一些顏色。
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Yes, I'll start. This is Josh, Steve. The full year, definitely, and if you look at the rest of the year, we raised guidance. What we see there is, I think, two things. One, continued unpredictability and challenges in the supply chain. That was evident in the first quarter. We think that continues throughout the year. The hard part about that is it's unpredictable and difficult to forecast, which also is driving higher freight cost, premium freight in particular, as we need to accelerate things to get them into the factories to keep production moving. So those, I would say, are impacts that are weighing on the business as we go forward.
是的,我會開始的。這是喬什,史蒂夫。肯定是全年,如果你看看今年剩下的時間,我們提出了指導。我認為,我們在那裡看到的是兩件事。一是供應鏈中持續存在的不可預測性和挑戰。這在第一季度很明顯。我們認為這種情況會持續一整年。困難的部分是它是不可預測的和難以預測的,這也推動了更高的運費,特別是溢價運費,因為我們需要加快速度讓它們進入工廠以保持生產。因此,我想說,這些影響會在我們前進的過程中對業務產生影響。
I think importantly, as we look at the rest of the year forecast, our incrementals are strong. I think from an equipment operations perspective, in total, incrementals are in the 25% to 30% range. Specifically on Production & Precision Ag, around 35% incremental rest of year. So although we do expect some disruption in the choppiness that we discussed through the supply chain, we feel good about the ability to execute as we manage through the year.
我認為重要的是,當我們查看今年剩餘時間的預測時,我們的增量很強勁。我認為從設備運營的角度來看,總體而言,增量在 25% 到 30% 的範圍內。特別是在生產和精密 Ag 方面,今年剩餘時間大約增加 35%。因此,儘管我們確實預計我們通過供應鏈討論的波動會出現一些中斷,但我們對全年管理的執行能力感到滿意。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is Jamie Cook, Crédit Suisse.
我們的下一個問題是瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。
Jamie Lyn Cook - MD, Sector Head of United States Capital Goods Research and Analyst
Jamie Lyn Cook - MD, Sector Head of United States Capital Goods Research and Analyst
Yes, so a lot to uncover here. I guess just following up on the short-term headwind. Can you help me understand where are these going in the short to medium term? Is there a ramp that then starts to fade? I'm just trying to think about how that impacts the 20% sort of margin target? And is there -- the 20% margin target, is there a difference across the 3 segments? Or if you could help me understand that, that would be helpful.
是的,這裡有很多東西要發現。我想只是跟進短期逆風。你能幫我了解這些在中短期內的去向嗎?是否有一個坡道然後開始消退?我只是想想想這會如何影響 20% 的保證金目標?是否存在 20% 的利潤率目標,這 3 個部分之間是否存在差異?或者,如果您能幫助我理解這一點,那將很有幫助。
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Yes. Just to clarify, did you say R&D? Was that your first question?
是的。澄清一下,你說的是研發嗎?那是你的第一個問題嗎?
Jamie Lyn Cook - MD, Sector Head of United States Capital Goods Research and Analyst
Jamie Lyn Cook - MD, Sector Head of United States Capital Goods Research and Analyst
Yes, R&D. Yes, the first part's R&D, the ramp in the beginning, you know what I mean, and then that phase, I'm just trying to understand how that impacts the 20% margin target.
是的,研發。是的,第一部分的研發,一開始的斜坡,你知道我的意思,然後那個階段,我只是想了解這如何影響 20% 的利潤率目標。
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Sure. This year, we've seen a step-up in R&D and that's intentional and focused on the themes that Ryan and John had mentioned today. I think that focus will continue. As we discussed, we will be making investments to unlock this value as well as thinking about the journey on our emissions. So I think those things, I would expect to continue. We'll be making those investments around the themes and around the value that we can create for our customers.
當然。今年,我們看到了研發方面的進步,這是有意並專注於 Ryan 和 John 今天提到的主題。我認為這種關注將繼續下去。正如我們所討論的,我們將進行投資以釋放這一價值,並考慮我們的排放之旅。所以我認為這些事情,我希望繼續下去。我們將圍繞主題和我們可以為客戶創造的價值進行這些投資。
On the 20%, that's equipment operations in total. So we haven't broken out the moving pieces there in terms of the different business segments. Wouldn't expect they're all the same. And as we go forward and execute, I think that will be -- we'll see where each business lies as we are continuing to unlock value.
在 20% 上,這是設備操作的總和。因此,我們還沒有根據不同的業務部門細分那裡的動態部分。沒想到他們都是一樣的。隨著我們前進和執行,我認為這將是——我們將在繼續釋放價值的同時看到每項業務的所在。
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
Jamie, it's Ryan. They're not all the same but I think it's fair to say, all of them will improve to hit that enterprise target of 20% through-cycle.
傑米,我是瑞恩。它們並不完全相同,但我認為可以公平地說,它們都將改進以實現 20% 的整個週期的企業目標。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Rob Wertheimer of Melius Research.
我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。
Robert Cameron Wertheimer - Founding Partner, Director of Research & Research Analyst
Robert Cameron Wertheimer - Founding Partner, Director of Research & Research Analyst
My question is on See & Spray Ultimate. You seem pretty comfortable with the stage of technology development there and perhaps I'm inferring that from some of the machine learning sort of resource shifting you've done over to autonomy. Can you tell us how far you've gotten? I don't know if you can talk about input cost reduction, percentage of fields that it works on, I don't know if disengages or has issues, speed at which it operates, really anything to give us context on how well developed or solved, if it is solved, that technology is and versus your goals?
我的問題是關於 See & Spray Ultimate。你似乎對那裡的技術發展階段很滿意,也許我從你已經完成的一些機器學習資源轉移中推斷出這一點。你能告訴我們你已經走了多遠嗎?我不知道您是否可以談論降低投入成本、它所處理的領域的百分比、我不知道是否脫離或有問題、它的運行速度,以及任何可以讓我們了解開發情況或解決了,如果解決了,該技術是否與您的目標相對?
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
John C. May - Chairman, President & CEO
Rob, it's John. I'll start and great question. It's actually very interesting because we had our staff meeting yesterday and at the end of our staff meeting, Jamie played a video for us of the first full production See & Spray Ultimate unit coming off the assembly line and on its way to customer hands and then went into much more detail than I'm sure you're interested in where every camera automatically calibrated and machine started up and the systems were fully functional. So we are really, really excited about what we're going to learn in the field this year.
羅布,是約翰。我會開始和很好的問題。這實際上非常有趣,因為我們昨天召開了員工會議,在員工會議結束時,Jamie 為我們播放了第一台完整生產的 See & Spray Ultimate 裝置下線並送達客戶手中的視頻,然後比我確信您對每台相機自動校準和機器啟動以及系統功能齊全的位置感興趣的細節要多得多。因此,我們對今年將在該領域學習的內容感到非常非常興奮。
And to your point, to quantify some of that savings, I still think it's going to be a high number. It's going to be, I think, around 80% herbicide reduction. And I plan personally to get out in the field with those sprayers and interact with our customers to see how they're performing. But just like autonomy, lots and lots of excitement from our customers and our dealers to get those products in the hands of their customers and to test not only the product but the business model.
就您而言,為了量化其中的一些節省,我仍然認為這將是一個很高的數字。我認為,這將減少 80% 左右的除草劑。我個人計劃帶著這些噴霧器走出現場,與我們的客戶互動,看看他們的表現如何。但就像自主權一樣,我們的客戶和經銷商非常興奮地將這些產品送到他們的客戶手中,不僅要測試產品,還要測試商業模式。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from David Raso, Evercore.
我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Raso。
David Michael Raso - Senior MD & Head of Industrial Research Team
David Michael Raso - Senior MD & Head of Industrial Research Team
In this thought process through 2030, how are you viewing the traditional economic cycles within this time frame? Or are you simply taking a cycle like it is right now, what the incremental business from the incremental addressable market, how that would impact your margins?
在這個到 2030 年的思考過程中,您如何看待這個時間框架內的傳統經濟周期?還是您只是像現在這樣進行循環,增量可尋址市場的增量業務是什麼,這將如何影響您的利潤?
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
David, this is Josh. I'll start there. I would say, first and foremost, we're looking at what is the value that we can create? And the great thing about this is, this is value that is meaningful and impactful for our customers regardless of where we are in the cycle. And when you talk about either reducing their inputs, improving their profitability and improving yield.
大衛,這是喬希。我將從那裡開始。我想說,首先,我們正在研究我們可以創造的價值是什麼?最棒的是,無論我們處於週期的哪個階段,這對我們的客戶來說都是有意義和有影響力的價值。當您談論減少他們的投入,提高他們的盈利能力和提高產量時。
So I think I would say the value creation here is somewhat agnostic of where are we in the cycle. And I think that's the beauty of what we can do, in addition to the sustainable outcomes that will be beneficial, and Jill referred to this, but we believe will create additional revenue opportunity for the customers as it comes to the potential for carbon or other markets as well as commodity differentiation.
所以我想我會說這裡的價值創造在某種程度上與我們在周期中的位置無關。我認為這是我們可以做的事情的美妙之處,除了有益的可持續成果,吉爾提到了這一點,但我們相信,在碳或其他方面的潛力方面,將為客戶創造額外的收入機會市場和商品差異化。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.
下一個問題來自奧本海默的克里斯汀歐文。
Kristen E. Owen - Associate
Kristen E. Owen - Associate
Wanted to follow up on the recurring revenue base and just some of the comments around the lower point of sales revenue in this long-term target. Just wondering if you can clarify how you think about total customer value over the lifetime of that equipment relative to the current model and how you see that progressing.
希望跟進經常性收入基礎,以及有關此長期目標中銷售收入較低點的一些評論。只是想知道您是否可以澄清您如何看待該設備相對於當前模型的整個生命週期內的總客戶價值,以及您如何看待這一進展。
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Sure. I think the point being -- that we're making there is today, we monetize very heavy at point of sale, and the opportunity to make that more accessible and see that technology is carrying that type of model be more heavily adopted, more quickly adopted across more jobs, more acres at that different price point and really tied closer to the value that's created through the technology is a significant opportunity for our customers and for us to be able to move forward.
當然。我認為關鍵是——我們今天正在那裡製造,我們在銷售點的貨幣化程度非常高,並且有機會讓這種模式更容易獲得,並看到技術正在承載這種類型的模式被更廣泛地採用,更快以不同的價格點在更多的工作、更多的土地上被採用,並且真正與通過技術創造的價值更緊密地聯繫在一起,這對我們的客戶和我們能夠向前發展來說是一個重要的機會。
Operator
Operator
Our last question is from Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.
我們的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的羅斯吉拉迪。
Ross Paul Gilardi - MD in Equity Research
Ross Paul Gilardi - MD in Equity Research
I just had a question on pricing just as it relates to this inflationary environment we're in. I mean, prior to the last couple of years, your business historically been able to get 200 to 300 basis points of pricing a year through the ups and downs of the cycle. And clearly, it's been a lot higher than that recently. I mean, this year, you're giving -- you're aiming for 1,000 basis points of pricing in large ag.
我只是對定價有疑問,因為它與我們所處的這種通貨膨脹環境有關。我的意思是,在過去幾年之前,您的企業歷來能夠通過 ups 獲得每年 200 到 300 個基點的定價和周期的起伏。很明顯,它最近比這高得多。我的意思是,今年,你正在給予 - 你的目標是在大型 ag 中定價 1,000 個基點。
And if we're in a sustained inflationary environment, is there any reason why your annual pricing gains can't remain well above that sort of historical 200, 300 basis points, particularly as you step up investment in all these new technologies that are driving so much product differentiation?
如果我們處於持續的通脹環境中,是否有任何理由說明您的年度定價收益不能遠高於歷史上的 200、300 個基點,尤其是當您加大對所有這些正在推動的新技術的投資時產品差異化這麼大?
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Maybe one thing to clarify, when we think about new value of features or tools solutions, that's not embedded in that price realization. That is really intended to be more from an inflationary perspective. So separate, we will see the value and the benefit of the solutions and tools that we're delivering from a technology point of view.
也許有一件事要澄清,當我們考慮功能或工具解決方案的新價值時,這並沒有嵌入到價格實現中。從通貨膨脹的角度來看,這實際上是更多的。如此獨立,我們將從技術角度看到我們提供的解決方案和工具的價值和好處。
Looking at the inflationary environment, we are monitoring this and trying to understand what is happening, both from an input perspective for our products and solutions and being cognizant of how do we price. And we've priced more dynamically in the last couple of years as a result of that. So I would say we'll continue to monitor and adjust our pricing accordingly. With inflationary pressure staying high, will we be above our historical averages in that 2 to 3 points potentially? I think that's fair, but we'll continue to be thoughtful there.
著眼於通脹環境,我們正在監控這一點並試圖了解正在發生的事情,無論是從我們產品和解決方案的投入角度來看,還是了解我們如何定價。因此,在過去的幾年裡,我們的定價更加動態。所以我想說我們將繼續監控並相應地調整我們的定價。在通脹壓力居高不下的情況下,我們是否會超過歷史平均水平 2 到 3 個點?我認為這是公平的,但我們會繼續深思熟慮。
I think one important thing to remember or consider as it relates to price is the increases we're seeing in used prices of equipment. So where we've seen strong increases on new, in many cases, we've seen more than double that increase on the used side. So trade differentials have actually been pretty attractive from a customer perspective. So low levels of inventory have driven used prices to be strong.
我認為與價格相關的一件需要記住或考慮的重要事情是我們看到的設備二手價格上漲。因此,在我們看到新的強勁增長的情況下,在許多情況下,我們看到二手方面的增長增加了一倍以上。因此,從客戶的角度來看,貿易差異實際上非常有吸引力。如此低的庫存水平推動了二手價格走強。
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
Ryan D. Campbell - Senior VP & CFO
Ross, it's Ryan. Maybe just real quick. The other thing, our equipment and solutions can help growers address the other inflationary parts of their P&L, which are trending higher right now. And so we think there's a benefit for upgrading technology because it can allow them to operate much more efficiently from an input perspective. And the inflation on those is significantly higher than what we're putting through on the equipment right now.
羅斯,我是瑞恩。也許真的很快。另一件事是,我們的設備和解決方案可以幫助種植者解決其損益表中的其他通脹部分,這些部分目前呈上升趨勢。所以我們認為升級技術是有好處的,因為從輸入的角度來看,它可以讓他們更有效地運作。而且這些設備的通貨膨脹率明顯高於我們現在對設備的通貨膨脹率。
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
Josh Jepsen - Director of IR
With that, we'll wrap up the call. We thank everyone for their time, and we'll talk soon. Take care.
有了這個,我們將結束通話。我們感謝大家的時間,我們很快就會談。小心。
Operator
Operator
And thank you. This does conclude the call. You may disconnect your lines, and thank you for your participation.
謝謝你。這確實結束了通話。您可以斷開您的線路,並感謝您的參與。