強鹿 (DE) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

未經 Deere 明確書面同意，嚴禁以任何其他方式使用、錄製或傳輸此受版權保護的廣播的任何部分。電話會議的參與者，包括問答環節，同意他們在所有媒體中的肖像和評論可能會被存儲並用作財報電話會議的一部分。

This call includes forward-looking comments concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K and periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to compare GAAP measures is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings and Events. I will now turn the call over to Rachel Bach.

此電話會議包括有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性評論，這些評論和預測受到重大風險和不確定性的影響。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的其他信息包含在公司最近的 8-K 表格和向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中。此調用還可能包括不符合美利堅合眾國公認會計原則 GAAP 的財務措施。有關這些措施的其他信息，包括比較 GAAP 措施的對賬，包含在新聞稿中，並發佈在我們網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的“季度收益和事件”下。我現在將把電話轉給雷切爾巴赫。

Thanks, Brent, and good morning. John Deere completed the first quarter with solid execution. Financial results for the quarter included 20% margin for the equipment operations. While still far from normal levels, fewer supply chain disruptions enabled our factories to operate at high levels of production. Strong ag fundamentals remain, our order [book is] still in allocation are full well into the fourth quarter and, in some cases, full through the balance of the year. Likewise, the construction and forestry division continues to benefit from healthy demand with order books fall into the fourth quarter and orders still on an allocation basis.

謝謝，布倫特，早上好。約翰迪爾以穩健的執行力完成了第一季度。本季度的財務業績包括設備運營 20% 的利潤率。雖然仍遠未達到正常水平，但供應鏈中斷的減少使我們的工廠能夠以高水平生產運營。強勁的農業基本面依然存在，我們的訂單 [book is] 仍在分配中，一直到第四季度，在某些情況下，甚至在今年餘下時間都已滿。同樣，建築和林業部門繼續受益於健康的需求，訂單簿進入第四季度，訂單仍在分配基礎上。

Slide 3 shows the results for the first quarter. Net sales and revenues were up 30% to $12.652 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were up 34% to $11.402 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $1.959 billion or $6.55 per diluted share. Taking a closer look at the individual segments, beginning with the production and precision ag business on Slide 4. Net sales of $5.198 billion were up 55% compared to the first quarter last year and up versus our own forecast, primarily due to higher shipment volumes and price realization. Price was positive by about 22 points. We expect price realization to be the highest early in the fiscal year, due in part the model year '21 machines produced and shipped in the first quarter of 2022, effectively including 2 model years when compared to the first quarter of '23. Currency translation was negative by roughly 1 point. Operating profit, $1.208 billion, resulting in a 23.2% operating margin for the segment compared to an 8.8% margin for the same period last year.

幻燈片 3 顯示了第一季度的結果。淨銷售額和收入增長 30% 至 126.52 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額增長 34% 至 114.02 億美元。歸屬於迪爾公司的淨收入為 19.59 億美元或每股攤薄收益 6.55 美元。仔細查看各個細分市場，從幻燈片 4 的生產和精密農業業務開始。淨銷售額為 51.98 億美元，與去年第一季度相比增長 55%，高於我們自己的預測，這主要是由於出貨量增加和價格實現。價格上漲約 22 點。我們預計本財年初期的價格實現最高，部分原因是 2022 年第一季度生產和發貨的 21 年型號機器，與 23 年第一季度相比有效地包括 2 個型號年。貨幣換算大約為負值 1 個百分點。營業利潤為 12.08 億美元，導致該部門的營業利潤率為 23.2%，而去年同期為 8.8%。

The year-over-year increase was primarily due to favorable price realization and improved shipment volume and mix. These were partially offset by higher production costs and increased R&D and SA&G. Prior year results were negatively impacted by lower production from the delayed ratification of our labor agreement as well as by the contract ratification bonus.

同比增長主要是由於有利的價格實現以及出貨量和組合的改善。這些被更高的生產成本和增加的研發和 SA&G 部分抵消。前一年的業績受到延遲批准我們的勞動協議以及合同批准獎金導致產量下降的負面影響。

Moving to small ag and turf on Slide 5. Net sales were up 14%, totaling $3.001 billion in the first quarter as a result of price realization and higher shipment volumes, partially offset by negative effects of currency translation.

轉到幻燈片 5 上的小型 ag 和 turf。由於價格實現和出貨量增加，第一季度淨銷售額增長 14%，總計 30.01 億美元，部分被貨幣換算的負面影響所抵消。

Price realization was positive by just over 11 points, while currency translation was negative by nearly 4 points. Operating profit was up year-over-year at $447 million, resulting in a 14.9% operating margin. The increased profit was primarily due to price realization and higher shipment volume, partially offset by higher production costs, R&D and SA&G.

價格實現略高於 11 個百分點，而貨幣換算則為負近 4 個百分點。營業利潤同比增長 4.47 億美元，營業利潤率為 14.9%。利潤增加主要是由於價格實現和更高的出貨量，部分被更高的生產成本、研發和 SA&G 所抵消。

Slide 6 shows our industry outlook for the ag and turf markets globally. We expect industry sales of large ag equipment in U.S. and Canada to be up approximately 5% to 10%, reflecting another year of durable demand. The dynamics of strong ag fundamentals, advanced fleet age and low field inventory all remain.

幻燈片 6 展示了我們對全球農業和草坪市場的行業展望。我們預計美國和加拿大大型農業設備的行業銷售額將增長約 5% 至 10%，反映出又一年的持久需求。強勁的農業基本面、先進的機隊年齡和低現場庫存的動態仍然存在。

We expect demand to exceed the industry's ability to produce for yet another year. For small ag and turf, we estimate industry sales in the U.S. and Canada to be down around 5%. Within the segment, order books for products linked to ag production systems remain resilient, while demand for consumer-oriented products such as compact tractors under 40-horsepower has softened considerably since last year. Moving on to Europe. The industry is forecast to be flat to up 5%. Fundamentals continue to be solid, so moderating from recent highs and net foreign cash income remains healthy. In South America, we expect industry sales of tractors and combines to be flat to up 5% following a very strong year in fiscal year '22. Farmer profitability remains high as our customers benefit from robust commodity prices, record production at variable currency environment.

我們預計需求將超過該行業的生產能力再過一年。對於小型農業和草坪，我們估計美國和加拿大的行業銷售額將下降約 5%。在該細分市場中，與農業生產系統相關的產品訂單保持彈性，而對面向消費者的產品（例如 40 馬力以下的緊湊型拖拉機）的需求自去年以來已大大減弱。繼續前往歐洲。該行業預計將持平至增長 5%。基本面繼續穩固，因此從近期高位放緩，淨外國現金收入保持健康。在南美，我們預計拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷售額在 22 財年非常強勁之後將持平至增長 5%。農民的盈利能力仍然很高，因為我們的客戶受益於強勁的商品價格，在可變貨幣環境下創紀錄的產量。

And while the backdrop in a large ag is favorable, demand for low horsepower softened a bit over the first quarter. Industry sales in Asia are forecasted to be down moderately. Now our segment forecasts, beginning on Slide 7. For production and precision ag, net sales are forecast to be up around 20% for the full year. Forecast assumes about 14 points of positive price realization for the full year and minimal currency impact. As noted earlier, we expect to achieve higher price realization in the first half of the year and then see it moderate a bit in the latter half. The segment's operating margin is now between 23.5% and 24.5%.

雖然大型 ag 的背景是有利的，但對低馬力的需求在第一季度有所減弱。預計亞洲的行業銷售額將溫和下降。現在我們的細分市場預測，從幻燈片 7 開始。對於生產和精密 ag，預計全年淨銷售額將增長 20% 左右。預測假設全年價格實現約 14 個正點且貨幣影響最小。如前所述，我們預計今年上半年實現更高的價格實現，然後在下半年看到它有所緩和。該部門的營業利潤率目前介於 23.5% 和 24.5% 之間。

Slide 8 shows our forecast for the amall ag and turf segment. We expect net sales to be flat to up 5%. This guidance includes 8 points of positive price realization and less than 0.5 point of currency headwind. The segment's operating margin is projected between 14.5% and 15.5%.

幻燈片 8 顯示了我們對 amall ag 和 turf 部分的預測。我們預計淨銷售額將持平至增長 5%。該指導包括 8 個積極的價格實現點和不到 0.5 個貨幣逆風點。該部門的營業利潤率預計在 14.5% 至 15.5% 之間。

Changing to construction and forestry on Slide 9. Net sales for the quarter were $3.203 billion, up 26%, primarily due to higher shipment volumes and price realization. Results were better than our own forecast for the quarter. Price realization was positive by over 13 points, while currency translation was negative by about 3 points. Operating profit of $625 million was higher year-over-year, resulting in a 19.5% operating margin due to price realization and higher shipment volumes, partially offset by higher production costs.

轉到幻燈片 9 的建築和林業。本季度的淨銷售額為 32.03 億美元，增長 26%，這主要是由於較高的出貨量和價格實現。結果好於我們自己對該季度的預測。價格實現為正超過 13 個百分點，而貨幣換算為負約 3 個百分點。營業利潤為 6.25 億美元，同比增長，由於價格實現和更高的出貨量，營業利潤率為 19.5%，部分被更高的生產成本所抵消。

C&F had several miscellaneous items that were positive to the first quarter results. The impact of these positive items was approximately 1.5 points of margin, and we do not expect them to repeat. Prior year results include the impact of the lower production in the first quarter due to the delayed ratification of our labor agreement as well as the contract ratification bonus.

C&F 有幾個對第一季度業績產生積極影響的雜項。這些積極項目的影響約為 1.5 個百分點，我們預計它們不會重複。上一年的業績包括由於延遲批准我們的勞動協議以及合同批准獎金而導致的第一季度產量下降的影響。

Let's turn to our 2023 construction and forestry industry outlook on Slide 10. Industry sales of earthmoving and compact construction equipment in North America are both projected to be flat to up 5%. End markets for earthmoving and compact equipment is expected to remain strong. While housing has softened. Infrastructure, the oil and gas sector and robust CapEx programs from the independent rental companies have continued to support demand. Retail sales have remained robust and dealer inventory is well below historic levels.

讓我們看看我們在幻燈片 10 上對 2023 年建築和林業行業的展望。北美土方和緊湊型建築設備的行業銷售額預計將持平至增長 5%。土方和緊湊型設備的終端市場預計將保持強勁。而住房已經走軟。基礎設施、石油和天然氣行業以及獨立租賃公司穩健的資本支出計劃繼續支持需求。零售銷售保持強勁，經銷商庫存遠低於歷史水平。

Global road building markets are forecast to be flat. North America remains the strongest market, compensating for softness in Europe as well as in parts of Asia. In forestry, we estimate the industry will be flat as softening in the U.S. and Canada is offset with strength in Europe. Moving to the C&F segment outlook on Slide 11. Deere's construction and forestry 2023 net sales are forecast to be up between 10% and 15%.

全球道路建設市場預計將持平。北美仍然是最強勁的市場，彌補了歐洲和亞洲部分地區的疲軟。在林業方面，我們估計該行業將持平，因為美國和加拿大的疲軟被歐洲的強勢所抵消。轉到幻燈片 11 的 C&F 部門展望。迪爾的建築和林業 2023 年淨銷售額預計將增長 10% 至 15%。

Our net sales guidance for the year considers around 9 points of positive price realization. Operating margin is expected to be in the range of 17% to 18%. Shifting to our financial services operations on Slide 12. Worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere & Company in the first quarter was $185 million. The decrease in net income was mainly due to less favorable financing spreads.

我們今年的淨銷售額指導考慮了大約 9 個積極的價格實現點。營業利潤率預計在 17% 至 18% 之間。轉到我們在幻燈片 12 上的金融服務業務。第一季度歸屬於迪爾公司的全球金融服務淨收入為 1.85 億美元。淨收入減少主要是由於融資利差不利。

For fiscal year 2023, our outlook is now $820 million as the less favorable financing spreads, higher SA&G expenses, and lower gains on operating lease dispositions are expected to more than offset the benefits from a higher average portfolio (inaudible). The less favorable financing spreads in both the first quarter results and outlook are a function of the velocity of interest rate increases and the lag and price changes.

對於 2023 財年，我們現在的預期為 8.2 億美元，因為較不利的融資利差、較高的 SA&G 費用以及較低的經營租賃處置收益預計將抵消較高平均投資組合帶來的好處（聽不清）。第一季度業績和前景中不太有利的融資利差是利率上升速度以及滯後和價格變化的函數。

Credit quality remains favorable with very low write-offs as a percentage of the portfolio. Slide 13 outlines our guidance for net income, our effective tax rate and operating cash flow. For fiscal '23, we are raising our outlook for net income to be between $8.75 billion and $9.25 billion, reflecting the strong results of the first quarter and continued optimism for the remainder of the year. Next, our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate between 23% and 25%. Lastly, cash flow from the equipment operations is now projected to be in the range of $9.25 billion to $9.75 billion.

信貸質量保持良好，註銷佔投資組合的百分比非常低。幻燈片 13 概述了我們對淨收入、有效稅率和經營現金流的指導。對於 23 財年，我們將淨收入預期上調至 87.5 億美元至 92.5 億美元，反映出第一季度的強勁業績以及對今年剩餘時間的持續樂觀情緒。接下來，我們的指導包含 23% 至 25% 之間的有效稅率。最後，設備運營的現金流現在預計在 92.5 億美元至 97.5 億美元之間。

That concludes our formal comments. Now I'd like to spend some time going deeper on a few things specific to this quarter. Let's start with farmer fundamentals. The USDA recently updated its farm income forecast. U.S. net cash farm income is forecast to be down in 2023 compared to 2022, but still well above long-term averages and at levels supportive of continued replacement demand. Importantly, crop cash receipts are predicted to be down only 3% and remain at very healthy levels for row crop producers. And while expenses are expected to be up, some key inputs like fertilizers have moderated since peaking in 2022. All in, the 2023 income forecasts are solid and will continue to support equipment demand. This may be specific to the U.S., but the message is similar across our various global markets, right, Brent?

我們的正式評論到此結束。現在，我想花一些時間深入探討本季度的一些具體問題。讓我們從農民的基本面開始。美國農業部最近更新了其農場收入預測。與 2022 年相比，預計 2023 年美國農場淨現金收入將有所下降，但仍遠高於長期平均水平，並且處於支持持續替代需求的水平。重要的是，農作物現金收入預計僅下降 3%，對於中耕作物生產者而言仍處於非常健康的水平。雖然預計支出會增加，但自 2022 年達到峰值以來，化肥等一些關鍵投入已經放緩。總而言之，2023 年的收入預測是穩健的，並將繼續支持設備需求。這可能是美國特有的，但在我們各個全球市場中傳達的信息都是相似的，對吧，布倫特？

That's right. And I would add that global stocks to use remain very tight, keeping grain prices elevated, even if they are down a bit from the highs of last summer. So the story here is one of slightly lower net income, but still quite profitable, which is true in most ag markets globally. As noted earlier, profitability in Europe remains solid. While grain prices have come off peak levels, input costs have also declined, keeping margin at supportive levels there. The relative profitability varies a bit by region with Central Europe, faring a bit better than Western Europe, but overall, still solid across the region. And in Brazil, higher production and favorable FX has kept profitability solid, making the region one of the strongest from a fundamentals perspective. The political transition and rising interest rate environment could result in some softening for smaller ag equipment, but large ag equipment demand is holding steady.

這是正確的。我要補充的是，全球可供使用的庫存仍然非常緊張，這使得穀物價格保持高位，即使它們比去年夏天的高位略有下降。因此，這裡的故事是淨收入略低，但仍相當有利可圖，這在全球大多數農業市場都是如此。如前所述，歐洲的盈利能力依然穩健。雖然穀物價格已脫離峰值水平，但投入成本也有所下降，使利潤率保持在支撐水平。相對盈利能力因地區而異，中歐略好於西歐，但總體而言，該地區仍然穩健。而在巴西，更高的產量和有利的外匯使盈利能力保持穩健，使該地區成為從基本面來看最強勁的地區之一。政治轉型和利率上升環境可能會導緻小型農業設備的一些疲軟，但大型農業設備需求保持穩定。

This is Josh. One thing I'd like to add here is that when we meet with dealers, we hear a consistent message from them, too. They're positive on the outlook and customer demand. We even get feedback, they could quote more customers if they weren't on allocation. So we feel good that the demand is out there. Our dealers are also optimistic about the level of tech adoption and demand for precision ag solutions as customers look to reduce expensive inputs, which improve profitability and sustainability. And this is not just a North American theme, but across the globe. I was with our dealers from Latin America earlier in the quarter, and the appetite for increased technology from our customers is very strong, and our dealers are investing heavily to deliver on the value proposition.

這是喬希。我想在這裡補充的一件事是，當我們與經銷商會面時，我們也從他們那裡聽到了一致的信息。他們對前景和客戶需求持樂觀態度。我們甚至得到了反饋，如果他們沒有分配，他們可以給更多的客戶報價。因此，我們對需求的存在感到滿意。我們的經銷商也對技術採用水平和對精密 ag 解決方案的需求持樂觀態度，因為客戶希望減少昂貴的投入，從而提高盈利能力和可持續性。這不僅僅是北美的主題，而是全球的主題。本季度早些時候，我和我們來自拉丁美洲的經銷商在一起，我們的客戶對增加技術的興趣非常強烈，我們的經銷商正在大力投資以實現價值主張。

That's a good perspective on the industry outlook and the dealer feedback. With that in mind, our order books were generally fall into the fourth quarter as we look across the global large ag business. Most orders are retail, so they have a specific customer name associated with them, and we anticipate it will be yet another year where large ag equipment demand outstrip supply. But if we look more closely at our small ag and turf division, the story is more (inaudible) . Can you step through that, Brent?

這是對行業前景和經銷商反饋的一個很好的看法。考慮到這一點，當我們縱觀全球大型農業業務時，我們的訂單通常屬於第四季度。大多數訂單都是零售的，因此它們有一個與之相關的特定客戶名稱，我們預計又將是大型農業設備供不應求的一年。但是，如果我們更仔細地觀察我們的小型 ag 和草皮部門，就會發現故事更多（聽不清）。你能解決這個問題嗎，布倫特？

Sure. if we dissect the segment, around 2/3 of our sales are linked to products tied to ag production systems like dairy and livestock, hay and forage and high-value crops. The remainder is tied more to consumer-oriented products. So hay and forage and lifestyle margins remain above recent historical averages. Additionally, dealer inventory to sales ratio for midsized tractors are below normal levels. So this part of small ag and turf has remained steady. A good proof point here is that the order book for our midsized tractors built in Monheim, Germany is filled well into the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023.

當然。如果我們剖析該細分市場，我們大約 2/3 的銷售額與與農業生產系統相關的產品有關，例如乳製品和牲畜、乾草和草料以及高價值作物。其餘部分更多地與面向消費者的產品相關。因此，乾草和草料以及生活方式的利潤率仍高於近期的歷史平均水平。此外，中型拖拉機的經銷商庫存與銷售比率低於正常水平。所以這部分small ag和turf一直保持穩定。這裡的一個很好的證明是，我們在德國蒙海姆建造的中型拖拉機的訂單在 2023 財年第四季度就已經滿了。

On the other hand, turf and utility equipment is more closely correlated with the general economy, specifically housing. So we've seen softening there, particularly in compact utility tractors. This is more in place where we've seen industry inventories build. And to round out the conversation on order books. Construction and forestry is also full into the fourth quarter. Given levels of demand, we do not anticipate any rebuilding -- any rebuilding of channel inventory in fiscal year 2023.

另一方面，草坪和公用設施設備與整體經濟尤其是住房的相關性更為密切。所以我們看到那裡軟化，特別是在緊湊型多用途拖拉機中。這在我們看到行業庫存增加的地方更是如此。並完善訂單簿上的對話。建築業和林業也全面進入四季度。鑑於需求水平，我們預計 2023 財年不會進行任何重建——任何渠道庫存重建。

Let's stay on that topic of inventory building. And going back to your comment, Brent, on turf and utility equipment industry and inventories. Is that increase in channel inventory purely related to the softening in demand or any of that seasonal for turf and utility equipment?

讓我們繼續討論庫存構建這個話題。回到你的評論，布倫特，關於草坪和公用事業設備行業和庫存。渠道庫存的增加是純粹與需求疲軟有關，還是與草坪和公用設備的任何季節性因素有關？

A mix of both. We are heading into the prime spring selling season for turf and utility equipment. So we normally have some inventory build at this time of the year that will sell off as we go through the spring. But we're monitoring channel inventory closely, so we can react quickly if there is further softening in demand.

兩者的混合。我們即將進入草坪和公用設施設備的春季銷售旺季。因此，我們通常會在每年的這個時候建立一些庫存，這些庫存會在我們度過春季時拋售。但我們正在密切監控渠道庫存，因此如果需求進一步疲軟，我們可以迅速做出反應。

What about channel inventory for our other segments?

我們其他細分市場的渠道庫存如何？

Yes. For large ag, our dealers remain on allocation as we've mentioned. The vast majority of orders are marked for retail and have a customer name associated with them. So we don't expect to see a restocking of dealer inventory this year. You'll see some channel inventory build seasonally a bit as we ramp up production ahead of the use season, but we don't predict much change in dealer inventory year-over-year by our fiscal year-end. We expect any restocking to be more of a 2024 story. And as I noted, it's the same for our North America construction and forestry business. Dealer inventory is at historic [lows]. Based on retail demand and our production levels, we don't anticipate much increase in dealer inventory. Again, we would expect any build there to occur in 2024.

是的。對於大型 ag，我們的經銷商仍在分配，正如我們所提到的。絕大多數訂單都標記為零售，並有一個與之關聯的客戶名稱。因此，我們預計今年經銷商庫存不會增加。隨著我們在使用季節之前提高產量，您會看到一些渠道庫存季節性增加，但我們預計到財政年度結束時經銷商庫存同比不會有太大變化。我們預計任何補貨都將更多地發生在 2024 年。正如我所指出的，我們的北美建築和林業業務也是如此。經銷商庫存處於歷史[低點]。根據零售需求和我們的生產水平，我們預計經銷商庫存不會增加太多。同樣，我們預計那裡的任何建設都將在 2024 年進行。

Maybe a couple of things to add here. As mentioned, our dealer inventories remain below historic levels as demand outpaces supply. We've noted a few times that our order books are still on allocation basis. And this continues because while supply challenges have eased, the supply chain is still fragile. It's getting better, but we continue to experience higher-than-normal supply disruptions. We're working with our supply chain and doing our best to try to ensure delivery to our customers. Second, since new equipment inventories remain tight, our dealers are seeing the benefit in used equipment. Deals are turning their used equipment very quickly at a historically fast pace, demonstrating resilient demand for used. As a result, used equipment inventories are at low levels and used equipment prices continue to be strong. This is a positive for customers as it reduces their trade differentials. This is especially true for both large ag and construction and forestry.

也許要在這裡添加幾件事。如前所述，由於需求超過供應，我們的經銷商庫存仍低於歷史水平。我們已經多次注意到我們的訂單簿仍在分配基礎上。這種情況仍在繼續，因為雖然供應挑戰有所緩解，但供應鏈仍然脆弱。情況正在好轉，但我們繼續經歷高於正常水平的供應中斷。我們正在與我們的供應鏈合作，盡最大努力確保交付給我們的客戶。其次，由於新設備庫存仍然緊張，我們的經銷商看到了二手設備的好處。交易正在以歷史上最快的速度非常迅速地轉變他們的二手設備，表明對二手設備的需求是有彈性的。因此，二手設備庫存處於低位，二手設備價格繼續走強。這對客戶來說是積極的，因為它減少了他們的貿易差異。對於大型農業、建築業和林業來說尤其如此。

Thanks, Josh. Let's shift to pricing. Production and precision ag in particular, benefited some high price realization here in the first quarter. This isn't a normal comparison though, Josh, can you break that down for us?

謝謝，喬希。讓我們轉向定價。生產和精密 ag 特別受益於第一季度這裡的一些高價格實現。但這不是正常的比較，Josh，你能為我們分解一下嗎？

You're right. It's not a normal year-over-year compare. It's really comparing 2 years' worth of price increases. Last year, during the first quarter, we were still shipping a fair number of model year '21 machine. We were behind on deliveries due to the work stoppage at some of our largest U.S. factories. So for example, a lot of tractors we shipped during the first quarter of 2022 were actually model year '21 machines and model year pricing.

你說得對。這不是正常的同比比較。這實際上是在比較 2 年的價格上漲。去年，在第一季度，我們仍在運送相當數量的 21 年型號機器。由於我們在美國的一些最大工廠停工，我們延遲交貨。因此，例如，我們在 2022 年第一季度發貨的許多拖拉機實際上是 21 年型號機器和型號年定價。

During the remainder of fiscal '22, we experienced significant material inflation, but we also successfully increased line rates to catch up on shipments. So we shipped most of the model year '22 tractors during fiscal '22. So now here in the first quarter of '23, nearly all of the tractor shipments were model year '23. So when one looks at the first quarter year-over-year price comparison is a really model year '23 versus model year '21 or 2 years for the of price.

在 22 財年的剩餘時間裡，我們經歷了嚴重的材料通脹，但我們也成功地提高了線路費率以趕上出貨量。因此，我們在 22 財年期間運送了大部分型號為 22 的拖拉機。所以現在在 23 年第一季度，幾乎所有拖拉機出貨量都是 23 年款。因此，當人們查看第一季度的同比價格比較時，實際上是 23 年車型與 21 年車型或 2 年的價格。

We do believe the price comparisons will moderate in the back half of the year. Our full year forecast contemplates production costs increasing year-over-year due to the impact of labor, energy prices and purchase components. Though we do expect the increases to be at a much lesser extent than we experienced in '22. We expect to benefit from improvements in commodity prices, decreased use of premium freight and increased productivity as our operations run more smoothly. Looking forward though, as inflationary pressures subside, we expect a reversion to our historical averages for price increases.

我們確實相信價格比較將在今年下半年緩和。我們的全年預測預計，由於勞動力、能源價格和採購零部件的影響，生產成本將逐年增加。儘管我們確實預計增幅會比我們在 22 年經歷的要小得多。隨著我們的運營更加順利，我們預計將受益於大宗商品價格的改善、優質運費的減少和生產力的提高。不過展望未來，隨著通脹壓力消退，我們預計價格上漲將回歸歷史平均水平。

That's helpful. Thanks, Josh. And also a good segue to talk about the rest of the year compared to the first quarter. It was a strong first quarter. However, in the first quarter, we had fewer production days with the holidays and some plant maintenance, model year switch overs and so on. So as we look to the second quarter, we'll have more production days. C&F, as I mentioned earlier, had some miscellaneous positive items in the first quarter that won't repeat as we progress through the year.

這很有幫助。謝謝，喬希。與第一季度相比，談論今年剩餘時間也是一個很好的話題。這是一個強勁的第一季度。然而，在第一季度，我們的生產天數因假期和一些工廠維護、車型年轉換等而減少。因此，當我們展望第二季度時，我們將有更多的生產天數。正如我之前提到的，C&F 在第一季度有一些雜項積極項目，隨著我們今年的進展，這些項目不會重複。

Brent, can you talk through how people should be thinking about our rest of the year forecast?

布倫特，你能談談人們應該如何看待我們今年餘下時間的預測嗎？

Absolutely. For PPA and C&F, we're confident in the rest of the year demand. And it's likely that our seasonality for the remainder of the year will look more like our historical cadence with the second and third quarters expected to be the highest in revenue for PPA, for example. The supply chain needs to continue to improve, enabling higher production rates. Part delinquencies and delays have abated, but have not returned to pre-pandemic levels or anything we had consider indicative of a healthy supply chain. Our guidance contemplates that we can procure the material we need to continue production at current daily rates.

絕對地。對於 PPA 和 C&F，我們對今年剩餘時間的需求充滿信心。而且我們今年剩餘時間的季節性可能看起來更像我們的歷史節奏，例如，第二和第三季度預計將是 PPA 的最高收入。供應鏈需要繼續改進，以實現更高的生產率。部分拖欠和延誤有所減少，但尚未恢復到大流行前的水平或我們認為表明健康供應鏈的任何水平。我們的指南考慮到我們可以採購我們需要的材料，以按照當前的每日費率繼續生產。

So with respect to top line guidance, we do not see significant demand risk for the rest of the year, but we do need the supply base to continue to execute. When it comes to production costs, there are a few variables to consider. As Josh mentioned, while raw material prices and the need for premium freight have eased, we continue to see inflation on purchase components, labor and energy. So some puts and takes there. If the supply chain continues to improve, we could see some additional productivity gains in our operations.

因此，就頂線指導而言，我們認為今年剩餘時間不會出現重大需求風險，但我們確實需要供應基礎繼續執行。在談到生產成本時，有幾個變量需要考慮。正如 Josh 所提到的，雖然原材料價格和對優質運費的需求有所緩解，但我們繼續看到採購零部件、勞動力和能源的通貨膨脹。所以有些人放在那裡。如果供應鏈繼續改善，我們可以在運營中看到一些額外的生產力提高。

This is Josh. One, I want to point out that when it comes to costs, we're not just waiting for things to get better. We're working with our suppliers to improve on-time deliveries and manage through inflationary pressures. We continue to look for opportunities to source differently when it makes sense, and we're looking at our own processes as well to continue to improve efficiency and cost we can control. So cost is top of mind and a key focus area.

這是喬希。第一，我想指出，在成本方面，我們不僅僅是在等待情況好轉。我們正在與我們的供應商合作，以提高準時交貨率並應對通貨膨脹壓力。我們繼續尋找機會，在有意義的時候以不同的方式採購，我們也在研究我們自己的流程，以繼續提高我們可以控制的效率和成本。因此，成本是最重要的，也是一個重點關注的領域。

One last special topic. We recently published our 2022 sustainability report. It can be found on deere.com/sustainability, and I would encourage people to take a look at it.

最後一個專題。我們最近發布了 2022 年可持續發展報告。它可以在 deere.com/sustainability 上找到，我鼓勵人們看一看。

Josh, any highlights you'd like to point out?

喬希，你有什麼要點要指出的嗎？

Yes. A few things here to highlight. We made progress on our Leap Ambitions, including engaged, highly engaged, sustainably engaged acres. Engaged acres give us a foundational understanding of customer utilization of Deere technology, and we continue to enable our customers to use data to do more with less Unlocking economic value, while also improving environmental outcomes. We formed partnerships to accelerate this value unlock for customers.

是的。這裡有幾件事要強調。我們在 Leap Ambitions 方面取得了進展，包括參與度、高度參與度和可持續參與度。 Engaged acres 讓我們對客戶對 Deere 技術的利用有了基本的了解，我們將繼續使我們的客戶能夠使用數據以更少的成本做更多的事情釋放經濟價值，同時改善環境成果。我們建立了合作夥伴關係，以加速為客戶釋放這一價值。

One example is a demonstration farm with Iowa State University, where over several years, we'll be able to test various sustainable farm management strategies and farming practices. We'll be able to collect data that mirrors our customers' applications and decision-making to deliver better solutions. We introduced the ExactShot feature on planters at CES 2023. This is a great example of a solution that enables our customers to do more with less and leverages our tech stack, pulling nozzle technology from sprayers onto ExactEmerge planter to deliver starter fertilizer on the seed and only on the seed when planting.

一個例子是愛荷華州立大學的一個示範農場，在未來幾年，我們將能夠測試各種可持續的農場管理策略和耕作實踐。我們將能夠收集反映客戶應用和決策的數據，以提供更好的解決方案。我們在 CES 2023 上推出了播種機的 ExactShot 功能。這是一個很好的解決方案示例，它使我們的客戶能夠事半功倍，並利用我們的技術堆棧，將噴嘴技術從噴霧器拉到 ExactEmerge 播種機上，為種子提供啟動肥料和播種時僅在種子上。

We also introduced prototype of our first fully electric excavator at CES. It's a Deere designed excavator with a Kreisel battery. It shows our focus on electrification in response to customer pull for quieter and safer solutions, while executing jobs in a lower emission manner. It's an example of the team making progress on reducing Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions for which we have validated science-based targets.

我們還在 CES 上推出了我們第一台全電動挖掘機的原型。這是迪爾設計的帶有 Kreisel 電池的挖掘機。它表明我們專注於電氣化，以響應客戶對更安靜、更安全解決方案的需求，同時以更低排放的方式執行工作。這是團隊在減少範圍 3 溫室氣體排放方面取得進展的一個例子，我們已經為此驗證了基於科學的目標。

With our focus on creating value for customers and being organized around their production systems, the solutions shown at CES underpinned the message of real purpose real technology with a real impact in all we do. I also want to highlight the significant progress we made in terms of our operational sustainability goals. For example, Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions, we had a goal of 15% reduction between 2017 and 2022. As we close out 2023, we almost doubled that achieving a reduction of nearly 29% during that time frame. So it's not just our products, but our operations having a positive impact, too.

我們專注於為客戶創造價值並圍繞他們的生產系統進行組織，在 CES 上展示的解決方案鞏固了真正目的真正技術的信息，對我們所做的一切產生了真正的影響。我還想強調我們在運營可持續性目標方面取得的重大進展。例如，範圍 1 和範圍 2 的溫室氣體排放量，我們的目標是在 2017 年到 2022 年之間減少 15%。到 2023 年結束時，我們幾乎翻了一番，在此期間減少了近 29%。因此，不僅僅是我們的產品，我們的運營也產生了積極影響。

That's good stuff. And before we open the line for other questions, Josh, any final comments?

那是好東西。在我們打開其他問題之前，Josh，有什麼最後的評論嗎？

Sure. It was a good first quarter. Strong results in start of the year. Fundamentals in demand across -- are solid across most parts of our business. The supply chain is showing early signs of improvement, but remains fragile, so the teams are managing through it. We're proud of the team, of employees, suppliers and dealers as we continue to work together to deliver our products and solutions to our customers. It was also very exciting at CES to reveal new solutions that will unlock value for our customers, not just economic value, but sustainable as well. You can read about it and the progress in the 2022 sustainability report, but to see it at CES and our strategy in action reinforces our belief that we have tremendous purpose and the ability to deliver real value for all those associated with Deere.

當然。這是一個很好的第一季度。年初業績強勁。需求的基本面——在我們的大部分業務中都是穩固的。供應鏈顯示出改善的早期跡象，但仍然脆弱，因此團隊正在管理它。我們為團隊、員工、供應商和經銷商感到自豪，因為我們將繼續共同努力，為客戶提供我們的產品和解決方案。在 CES 上展示新的解決方案也非常令人興奮，這些解決方案將為我們的客戶釋放價值，不僅是經濟價值，而且是可持續的。您可以在 2022 年可持續發展報告中閱讀它和進展，但在 CES 上看到它和我們的行動戰略加強了我們的信念，即我們有巨大的目標和能力為所有與迪爾相關的人提供真正的價值。

Thank you. Now let's open the line for questions from our investors.

謝謝。現在讓我們打開投資者提問的熱線。

Now we are ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call. The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure. (Operator Instructions)

現在我們準備開始通話的問答部分。接線員會指導您進行投票程序。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Seth Weber with Wells Fargo Securities.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Seth Weber。

I wanted to just ask a question on the cost side. Just to clarify what your message is on the input costs and freight costs and things like that. Are you suggesting that costs are going to continue to be up year-over-year through 2023? Or is there some point during this year when we start to see a cost benefit to Deere on a year-over-year basis? Like when does that flip, I guess, from whether it's input costs or freight or what have you?

我只想問一個關於成本方面的問題。只是為了澄清您關於輸入成本和運費等的信息。您是否暗示到 2023 年成本將繼續逐年上升？或者在今年某個時候我們開始看到 Deere 的成本同比增長？就像什麼時候翻轉一樣，我猜，無論是投入成本還是運費還是你有什麼？

With respect to production costs, Seth, there's quite a bit to unpack there. I mean I think first and foremost, our factories were running a lot better in the first quarter, really better in the first quarter than at any other point in -- over the course of 2022. So we were able to hit line rates that we were expecting to hit as well as completing the machines and the sequence that we intended to complete them on. With respect to production costs, they are still going to run higher on a year-over-year basis for the full year, but at a diminishing rate when compared to production cost increases that we saw in 2022.

關於生產成本，賽斯，那裡有很多東西要拆開。我的意思是，我認為首先，我們的工廠在第一季度的運行情況要好得多，在第一季度確實比 2022 年期間的任何其他時間點都要好。所以我們能夠達到我們的線率我們期望擊中並完成我們打算完成的機器和序列。就生產成本而言，它們全年仍將同比增長，但與我們在 2022 年看到的生產成本增長相比，增速正在放緩。

If I dissect the components of production costs, there's a few puts and takes there. Raw materials were slightly favorable in the first quarter, but that will get more favorable as we progress through the year. Freight was already favorable in the first quarter as well, and we do believe that will continue rest of the year. Where we are still seeing inflation impacting the production cost line item for us is really in purchase components. And those tend to inflate on a lagging basis. If you think about the inflation that our Tier 3, Tier 2 suppliers are experiencing, it takes a while for that to bubble up into our production costs.

如果我剖析生產成本的組成部分，就會有一些投入和投入。第一季度原材料略有優勢，但隨著我們今年的進展，這種情況會變得更加有利。運費在第一季度也已經很受歡迎，我們相信今年剩餘時間會繼續如此。我們仍然看到通貨膨脹影響我們的生產成本項目的地方實際上是採購組件。而那些往往會在滯後的基礎上膨脹。如果您考慮我們的第 3 級、第 2 級供應商正在經歷的通貨膨脹，它需要一段時間才能增加到我們的生產成本中。

So the inflation they have with respect to labor and raw mats are really hitting us on a lagging basis. That's what's driving some of the higher production costs year-over-year. I'd also note that labor and energy are going to be higher on a year-over-year basis, also taking production costs on an absolute basis up year-over-year. Now that said, we are actively working with our suppliers to sort of get back any sort of inflation that's linked to raw material. So you'll see us very much focused on cost for the rest of the year.

因此，他們在勞動力和原始墊子方面的通貨膨脹確實滯後地打擊了我們。這就是導致部分生產成本逐年上升的原因。我還要指出，勞動力和能源將同比增長，同時也使生產成本在絕對基礎上同比上升。話雖如此，我們正在積極與我們的供應商合作，以恢復與原材料相關的任何形式的通貨膨脹。所以你會看到我們在今年餘下的時間裡非常關注成本。

Seth, it's Josh. Maybe 1 to add there is, last year, as we saw this, we had -- because of the way our price programs work and early order programs, we had set price and then we saw inflation come through. So while we were price production cost positive in '22, it was just slightly positive. '23, we would expect that to be much more positive as we catch up a bit on the pricing side and start to see some of the increases come in. So that will be more positive in '23 than it was in '22.

賽斯，是喬希。也許要補充一點，去年，正如我們所看到的那樣，我們有——由於我們的價格計劃的運作方式和提前訂購計劃，我們設定了價格，然後我們看到了通貨膨脹。因此，雖然我們在 22 年將生產成本定為正數，但它只是略微正數。 '23，我們預計這會更加積極，因為我們在定價方面有所趕上並開始看到一些增長。所以這在 23 年會比 22 年更加積極。

Our next question comes from Dillon Cumming with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dillon Cumming。

If I can just ask a longer-term one. I think some of the concern out there in the market is just that we haven't seen an ag cycle this long, right, over the last decade. But if you look at Deere's own revenue growth profile, right, in the '90s and early 2000, there have been prior instances of your company seeing 7, 8 years of consecutive revenue growth. So I guess if you had to describe the current backdrop, right, demand outstripping supply, et cetera, would you say that we're operating in a market environment maybe similar to those years versus the more commodity driven cycles that we've seen over the last decade or so?

如果我能問一個長期的。我認為市場上的一些擔憂只是我們在過去十年中沒有看到這麼長的農業周期，對吧。但是，如果您查看 Deere 自己的收入增長情況，對，在 20 世紀 90 年代和 2000 年初，您的公司曾有過連續 7、8 年收入增長的例子。所以我想如果你必須描述當前的背景，對，需求超過供應等等，你會說我們在一個市場環境中運作可能與那些年相似，而不是我們看到的更多的商品驅動週期過去十年左右？

Yes. Dillon, thanks for the question. With respect to this particular cycle, I think there's a lot of variables at play. First off, we've had a really strong start to the year. And our guidance would indicate we're going to have a very strong rest of year as well. We note the backdrop right now is very supportive. Farmer fundamentals are really strong. And we had a record year in 2022. But as we look at 2023, it's going to be a slight decline, but still at a very, very positive level. Crop cash receipts are down 3%, farmer net income is down 16%, but both of those figures would be higher than the peak of any prior cycle. So right now, I think our farmers are in really good shape.

是的。狄龍，謝謝你的提問。關於這個特定的周期，我認為有很多變數在起作用。首先，我們今年的開局非常強勁。我們的指導將表明我們也將在今年餘下的時間裡表現出色。我們注意到現在的背景非常有利。農民的基本面真的很強。 2022 年是創紀錄的一年。但展望 2023 年，它會略有下降，但仍處於非常非常積極的水平。農作物現金收入下降 3%，農民淨收入下降 16%，但這兩個數字都高於之前任何週期的峰值。所以現在，我認為我們的農民狀況非常好。

I think another thing to contemplate with respect to this particular cycle is the way that it really unfolded has been at a slower pace than what the market would typically facilitate. We saw demand inflect in early 2021, but the industry was suffering from significant supply constraints over that year '22 and in '23. We are still shorting demand on some level in '23, much of that or some of that will certainly push into subsequent years. So this cycle is difficult to compare to prior cycles because of some of these artificial and external constraints that are placed on the business.

我認為關於這個特定週期要考慮的另一件事是它真正展開的方式比市場通常會促進的速度慢。我們看到需求在 2021 年初發生變化，但該行業在那一年 22 年和 23 年受到嚴重的供應限制。我們在 23 年仍然在某種程度上做空需求，其中大部分或部分肯定會推向隨後的幾年。因此，由於對業務施加了一些人為和外部限制，因此很難將此週期與之前的周期進行比較。

Now with respect to 2024, certainly, too early to make a call there. There's a lot of variables between now and then we have to plant the 2023 crop. We want to see where ag inputs normalize, things like fertilizer, seed and chemicals have been somewhat volatile in their pricing over the last couple of -- or last year or so. And we've got a number of swing exporters, I would say, when you contemplate areas like the Black Sea region as well as Argentina. So a lot of variables need to play out, and we'll start to collect our first data point on next year. Really this summer, when we run our crop care early order program, we'll collect some additional data points in the fall with our combine early order program.

現在關於 2024 年，當然，現在還為時過早。從現在到我們必須種植 2023 年的作物之間存在很多變數。我們想看看農業投入在哪裡正常化，化肥、種子和化學品等東西在過去幾年或去年左右的價格中有些波動。當你考慮黑海地區和阿根廷等地區時，我會說，我們有許多搖擺不定的出口商。所以很多變數需要發揮作用，我們將開始收集明年的第一個數據點。真的是今年夏天，當我們運行我們的作物護理提前訂購計劃時，我們將在秋季通過我們的聯合提前訂購計劃收集一些額外的數據點。

That said, how we intend to exit '23, we think we'll exit at a really healthy rate. The fleet age will still be advanced. And inventories, both new and used are going to continue to be tight.

也就是說，我們打算如何退出 23 年，我們認為我們將以非常健康的速度退出。艦隊年齡仍將提前。新舊庫存都將繼續吃緊。

Yes. Dillon, maybe 1 thing I would add here, and this gets back to our strategy and I think how we are fundamentally different company in terms of what we're delivering to customers, how we're integrating technology to drive value for customers, really irrespective of where end markets are, the ability to take cost out and to increase productivity and profitability for customers. So we're very, very focused on our ability to dampen cyclicality over time, be less reliant on sheer unit volume as we drive better economics for our customers and better per unit economics for Deere. So we feel really good about the opportunity to drive growth and our ability to create value for customers. Thanks, Dillon. We'll go to our next question.

是的。狄龍，也許我要在這裡添加一件事，這又回到了我們的戰略，我認為我們在向客戶提供的產品方面有何根本不同，我們如何整合技術為客戶創造價值，真的無論終端市場位於何處，都能夠為客戶降低成本並提高生產力和盈利能力。因此，我們非常、非常專注於隨著時間的推移抑制週期性的能力，減少對純粹單位數量的依賴，因為我們為客戶帶來更好的經濟效益，為迪爾帶來更好的單位經濟效益。因此，我們對推動增長的機會和我們為客戶創造價值的能力感到非常滿意。謝謝，狄龍。我們將轉到下一個問題。

Our next question will come from John Joyner with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 John Joyner。

Great. Josh, you've discussed this a bit, and I know my question here comes up a lot, so I do apologize in advance. But how do you think about pricing power, I guess, when the currently robust up cycle eventually moderates? Or are prices now possibly set at a -- what could be a structurally higher level?

偉大的。喬希，你已經討論過這個問題了，我知道我的問題經常出現，所以我提前道歉。但我想，噹噹前強勁的上升週期最終放緩時，你如何看待定價能力？或者價格現在可能設定在 - 結構上可能更高的水平？

John, with respect to price, I think there's a lot to contemplate there. The pricing actions that we've taken have been commensurate with the level of production cost that we and the industry have experienced. And Josh noted this earlier, if you look at our 2022 margins for production precision ag, they were actually down year-over-year when compared to '21, even on 33% higher revenue. So we've absorbed a lot of production costs and have had to take price measures to account for that. I think what we've seen so far is no sign of demand destruction yet. Our customers have been really profitable over the last few years. And the good news is we are seeing signs of moderation in our production cost increases. So in our -- from our perspective, that does point to, I would say, a reversion to the mean in terms of normal price increases year-over-year as we start to stabilize with respect to higher production costs.

約翰，關於價格，我認為那裡有很多值得考慮的地方。我們採取的定價行動與我們和整個行業所經歷的生產成本水平相稱。 Josh 早些時候指出，如果你看看我們 2022 年生產精密 ag 的利潤率，與 21 年相比，它們實際上同比下降，即使收入增長 33%。所以我們吸收了大量的生產成本，不得不採取價格措施來解決這個問題。我認為到目前為止我們所看到的還沒有需求破壞的跡象。我們的客戶在過去幾年中確實盈利。好消息是我們看到了生產成本增長放緩的跡象。因此，從我們的角度來看，這確實表明，隨著我們開始在較高的生產成本方面穩定下來，正常價格同比增長的平均值回歸。

Yes. Maybe, John, 1 add I would throw in there is when we look at the impact of equipment on the P&L for customers is still a relatively small percentage. And I think important in that is it's a relatively small percentage, and we're actively focused on other parts of the P&L, how do we take cost out and how do we improve yield. I think that's really important kind of to my previous comment on being able to do that is beneficial regardless of where end markets are or where commodity markets are. So that focus the ability to do that over time that we think is differentiated. But as Brent mentioned, we do think as inflationary pressures abate, we'll see prices come back into culture what we've seen in the past.

是的。也許，約翰，1 補充一點，當我們看到設備對客戶損益的影響仍然相對較小時。我認為重要的是它的百分比相對較小，我們積極關注損益表的其他部分，我們如何降低成本以及如何提高收益率。我認為這對我之前的評論非常重要，無論終端市場在哪里或商品市場在哪裡，能夠做到這一點都是有益的。因此，隨著時間的推移，重點關注我們認為差異化的能力。但正如布倫特所提到的，我們確實認為隨著通脹壓力的減弱，我們將看到價格回到我們過去所看到的文化中。

Our next question comes from Thein with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Thein。

Yes. So just thinking about gross margins for the rest of the year relative to the 30% in the first quarter, the full year guidance only outlines just a marginal improvement. Obviously, you'll have -- you should have volumes at quite a bit higher kind of quarterly run rate from the first quarter. So what are the -- I mean you talked about there's a lot of interplay between price and cost. But normally, just from kind of a seasonal perspective, we do see more of an improvement. So are there -- but there's perhaps some mix benefits that may play through in PPA that helped the first quarter that won't for the rest of the year? Or are there any other high-level thoughts you have on that, just as we think about, again, gross margins for the balance of the year.

是的。因此，僅考慮相對於第一季度 30% 的今年剩餘時間的毛利率，全年指引僅略有改善。顯然，與第一季度相比，您的季度運行率應該高得多。那麼什麼是 - 我的意思是你談到價格和成本之間有很多相互作用。但通常情況下，僅從某種季節性的角度來看，我們確實看到了更多的改善。那麼有沒有 - 但是 PPA 中可能會產生一些混合收益，這些收益有助於第一季度，但不會在今年餘下時間發揮作用？或者您對此有任何其他高層次的想法，就像我們再次考慮今年餘下時間的毛利率一樣。

Tim, thanks for the question. With respect to gross margins, we would expect to see rest of year somewhat in line with what you saw in the first quarter. As Josh noted, we'll have and put up the strongest price realization number in Q1. That will moderate a little bit as we go through the year. What offsets that, though, is our cost compares get more favorable. And so I think the dynamic between moderating price combined with better cost compares will sort of work to offset each other and keep our gross margins roughly in line with what you saw in the first quarter.

蒂姆，謝謝你的提問。關於毛利率，我們預計今年剩餘時間會與您在第一季度看到的情況有些一致。正如 Josh 指出的那樣，我們將在第一季度擁有並提供最強勁的價格實現數字。隨著我們度過這一年，這將有所緩和。不過，抵消這一點的是我們的成本比較變得更加有利。因此，我認為適度的價格與更好的成本比較之間的動態將相互抵消，並使我們的毛利率與第一季度的情況大致保持一致。

Yes, Tim, I think that's fair from a gross margin perspective. And if you think about just profitability overall, our operating margins, we do have higher R&D year-over-year. We're investing at a record level of R&D. And I think that really speaks to our confidence and optimism and the value that we can create. That's clearly not in the gross margins. But as you think about operating margins, we do see that higher year-over-year and probably higher rest of the year than compared to 1Q.

是的，蒂姆，我認為從毛利率的角度來看這是公平的。如果你只考慮整體盈利能力，我們的營業利潤率，我們確實有比去年同期更高的研發。我們正在以創紀錄的水平投資研發。我認為這確實說明了我們的信心和樂觀以及我們可以創造的價值。這顯然不在毛利率中。但是當你考慮營業利潤率時，我們確實看到與第一季度相比，同比更高，今年剩餘時間可能更高。

Our next question comes from Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephen Volkmann。

Great. I wanted to think about margins kind of big picture here, and maybe this is [Josh'] question, I don't know. But at the end of the day, it feels like you guys have sort of achieved your targets earlier than you expected. I wonder if there's an opportunity to sort of bump those higher over time or whether you think those are still the right range to think about? And more specifically, how much volatility maybe on the decremental side if and when we actually sort of end this cycle?

偉大的。我想在這裡考慮利潤率的大局，也許這是 [Josh] 的問題，我不知道。但在一天結束時，感覺你們比預期更早地實現了目標。我想知道隨著時間的推移是否有機會提高這些價格，或者您是否認為這些價格仍然是值得考慮的正確範圍？更具體地說，如果我們真正結束這個週期，那麼在遞減方面可能會有多少波動？

Steve. With respect to our stated goal of 20% margins -- through cycle margins by 2030, maybe a couple of things to unpack there. First goal is to get to a structural through-cycle margin achievement at that point. And we would say we're not quite there yet. I understand that our guidance would imply 20% for this year. And we certainly have progressed beyond our original goal of 15%, but there's still a little bit further to go on the journey. Part of this year's performance is based on the robust demand environment that we're in. I think the other thing I would point out there is keep in mind that there is an entirely other element to that goal around the reduction of the standard deviation around margins. And we're just now beginning to make progress on our recurring revenue goal by getting the right tech stack out in the market. So I think that part of the journey, we still have a much further way to go. We're getting started. I think we're off to a good start. But it's really -- you need to consider both our goal to get to sort of through cycle margins of 20%, but then also minimize the volatility around that 20% as part of the goal suite as well.

史蒂夫。關於我們規定的 20% 利潤率的目標——到 2030 年通過週期利潤率，可能有幾件事需要解決。第一個目標是在那個時候實現結構性的全週期利潤率成就。我們會說我們還沒有到那一步。據我所知，我們的指導意見意味著今年將達到 20%。我們當然已經超越了最初 15% 的目標，但還有更遠的路要走。今年的部分錶現是基於我們所處的強勁需求環境。我想我要指出的另一件事是請記住，圍繞減少標準偏差的目標還有一個完全不同的因素邊距。我們剛剛開始通過在市場上推出合適的技術堆棧來實現我們的經常性收入目標。所以我認為在這部分旅程中，我們還有很長的路要走。我們開始了。我認為我們有了一個良好的開端。但它確實——你需要考慮我們的目標，即通過 20% 的周期利潤率排序，但同時也將 20% 左右的波動性作為目標套件的一部分最小化。

Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I'm trying to think about '24. The order books are not open yet, right? So still some time to think about that and how we're going to price as well for '24. So it looks like the rest of the year, you're implying pricing is up about 9.9% in the rest of the year, so maybe a cadence of 13%, 14% and 10%, and then by the fourth quarter, we're still up 6%, 7%. So I'm just trying to think about initially -- I know it's early, but how are you thinking about pricing for '24 as it sits today? And is that roughly the right way to think about the exit on pricing for the year and that kind of up 6% to 7% in the fourth quarter.

我正在考慮 24 年。訂單簿還沒有開放，對吧？所以還有一些時間來考慮這個問題，以及我們將如何為 24 年定價。所以它看起來像今年剩餘時間，你暗示定價在今年剩餘時間上漲了約 9.9%，所以可能是 13%、14% 和 10% 的節奏，然後到第四季度，我們'仍然上漲了 6%、7%。所以我只是想最初考慮——我知道現在還早，但你如何考慮今天的 24 年定價？這是考慮今年定價退出的大致正確方法嗎？第四季度增長 6% 至 7%。

David, with respect to price, I think your math is probably fair in terms of seeing that price realization number moderate a little bit as we go through the year. Compared to last year, in 2023, we won't see as much midyear price increase. So a lot of the impact that we're seeing early in the part of 2023 is based on sort of midyear price actions that we took last year. So I think as we migrate from fiscal year '23 into '24, it will be a little bit more then of a kind of clean break in terms of pricing and will be mostly dependent on what we do for new list prices in '24.

大衛，關於價格，我認為你的數學可能是公平的，因為我們看到這一年的價格實現數字有所緩和。與去年相比，到 2023 年，我們不會看到年中價格上漲那麼多。因此，我們在 2023 年初看到的很多影響是基於我們去年採取的某種年中價格行動。因此，我認為當我們從 23 財年過渡到 24 財年時，在定價方面將有點徹底突破，並且主要取決於我們在 24 年對新標價所做的工作。

The calculus there is really going to be based on what we're seeing in production costs. We've seen some positive tailwinds beginning this -- in the first quarter of this year, and we would expect some of that to get better as we go through the year. But we're going to have to take a wait-and-see approach until we get a little bit closer to early order programs before we maybe have a fully formed view on where pricing might be in '24.

那裡的微積分實際上是基於我們在生產成本中看到的。從今年第一季度開始，我們已經看到了一些積極的順風，我們預計隨著這一年的推移，其中一些會變得更好。但我們將不得不採取觀望態度，直到我們更接近早期訂購計劃，然後我們才能對 24 年的定價可能有一個完整的看法。

Our next question comes from Michael Feniger with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Feniger。

Is there any way to frame these pricing gains being able to look at how much is coming from the inflationary side and how much the higher rates are from tools and features. And are you seeing pricing just across the industry and players remain disciplined as they kind of roll through this year as inflation eases and we revert more to that normal environment.

有沒有什麼方法可以確定這些定價收益能夠查看有多少來自通貨膨脹方面以及有多少較高的利率來自工具和功能。你是否看到整個行業的定價和參與者在今年隨著通貨膨脹的緩解和我們更多地恢復到正常環境而在某種程度上滾動時仍然受到紀律處分。

Mike, thanks for the question. With respect to pricing, I think the historical trend would point to a normal environment of 2% to 3% pricing based on inflation and roughly maybe 3% to 4% based on additional features. Now when we quote price realization in our press release, we're only quoting inflationary prices, right? We don't quote the addition to average selling prices that come from those new features in precision ag that would typically fall in the mixed bar on our waterfall charts. And I think on a go-forward basis, the 3% to 4% is largely in line with what we would expect to continue going forward. With respect to industry discipline, we'll play a wait-and-see approach how that plays out over the course of this year.

邁克，謝謝你的提問。關於定價，我認為歷史趨勢會指向一個正常環境，即基於通貨膨脹的定價為 2% 至 3%，基於附加功能的定價大約為 3% 至 4%。現在，當我們在新聞稿中引用價格實現時，我們只是在引用通貨膨脹價格，對嗎？我們不會引用 precision ag 的那些新功能帶來的平均售價的增加，這些新功能通常會落在我們的瀑布圖的混合條中。而且我認為在前進的基礎上，3% 到 4% 基本上符合我們預期繼續前進的水平。關於行業紀律，我們將採取觀望態度，看看今年的結果如何。

I think it will be largely dependent on the inventory levels that we see in large ag, North America large ag specifically. Right now, those continue to be pretty tight. And as long as those remain tight, there's not a lot of incentive for the industry itself to be undiscipline on price. But again, we'll wait and see how that plays out as we progress through the year.

我認為這在很大程度上取決於我們在大型公司，特別是北美大型公司看到的庫存水平。現在，這些仍然非常緊張。只要價格仍然緊張，行業本身就沒有太多動力在價格上不受約束。但同樣，隨著我們在這一年的進展，我們將拭目以待。

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

I guess just 2 questions. Back to C&F, I know you outlined 1.5 points due to sort of miscellaneous positive items. If you could just explain a little more what exactly that was? And obviously, the margins were strong in the quarter. Is there anything structural going on there that we should get more optimistic about how we think about construction margins over the longer term?

我想只有2個問題。回到 C&F，我知道你概述了 1.5 分，因為有一些雜項積極的項目。如果你能再解釋一下那到底是什麼？顯然，本季度的利潤率很高。那裡有什麼結構性的事情發生，我們應該對我們如何看待長期的建築利潤率更加樂觀嗎？

So with respect to the drivers of the C&F beat, I think there's a couple of things to unpack there. First, operationally, that division executed very well in the quarter and the order book remains really strong. Demand has really held up in that division for us. I would say that Wirtgen was exceptional in their performance in the first quarter. And of course, we've got a little extra price there.

因此，關於 C&F 節拍的驅動程序，我認為有幾件事需要解決。首先，在運營方面，該部門在本季度執行得非常好，訂單仍然非常強勁。對我們來說，該部門的需求確實存在。我會說維特根在第一季度的表現非常出色。當然，我們在那裡有一些額外的價格。

Jamie, you noted there were a couple of miscellaneous items. Those were around some FX hedging gains that we took primarily in the quarter. What I would tell you is that the construction and forestry division is one where we've been working to improve structural performance for the last couple of years. You've seen that with the Wirtgen acquisition we made 5 years ago as well as the decision we made last year to purchase out the -- our JV partner in the Deere-Hitachi relationship. I think those are things that will continue to deliver structural performance as we move forward, and it's a division, we're really excited about the growth opportunities in.

傑米，你注意到有一些雜項。這些是我們主要在本季度獲得的一些外匯對沖收益。我要告訴你的是，建築和林業部門是我們過去幾年一直致力於提高結構性能的部門。你已經看到我們在 5 年前收購 Wirtgen，以及我們去年決定購買我們在 Deere-Hitachi 關係中的合資夥伴。我認為隨著我們的前進，這些將繼續提供結構性績效，這是一個部門，我們對其中的增長機會感到非常興奮。

Yes. One thing to add, Jamie. Those 2 things Brent mentioned are critical. And then on top of that, it's been really, really thoughtful on how we leverage technology into both earthmoving and road building as well as forestry because as with most industries, there's -- there are significant labor challenges. So the ability to automate jobs and bring technology to make jobs safer and easier to do is really, really important. So you'll see us leverage technology there. You'd be thoughtful in surgical and how we pull things over from PPA, production and precision ag, for example, and we think that will -- there's another structural component as we go forward.

是的。傑米，要補充一件事。布倫特提到的這兩件事很關鍵。然後最重要的是，對於我們如何將技術應用於土方工程和道路建設以及林業，我們真的非常深思熟慮，因為與大多數行業一樣，存在著巨大的勞動力挑戰。因此，使工作自動化並利用技術使工作更安全、更容易完成的能力真的非常重要。所以你會看到我們在那裡利用技術。你會在外科手術方面考慮周到，例如我們如何從 PPA、生產和精密 ag 中拉出來，我們認為這會——我們前進的過程中還有另一個結構組成部分。

Our next question comes from Mig Dobre with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mig Dobre 和 Baird。

I wanted to ask a backlog question, if I may. So you came into the year with a little better than $14 billion worth of backlog in your ag segment. And I'm sort of curious in your planning assumptions for 2023, do you expect to start working down some of this backlog? And I guess there's 2 things here. Are you structurally running now with higher levels of backlog or is this something that can -- we can actually start to see come down this year? And what are sort of the implications here for production in 2024, given how strong the backlog was to begin with.

如果可以的話，我想問一個積壓問題。所以你進入這一年時，你的 ag 部門的積壓訂單價值略高於 140 億美元。我對您對 2023 年的計劃假設有點好奇，您是否希望開始處理一些積壓的工作？我想這裡有兩件事。您現在是否在結構上以更高水平的積壓運行，或者這是否可以 - 我們實際上可以在今年開始看到下降？考慮到一開始的積壓情況，這對 2024 年的生產有何影響。

Mig, with respect to our backlog, I think there are a couple of things to discuss there. The level of the backlog that has grown relative to history, some of that is just coming from increased valuation of our -- of the price point of our machines, right? So if you compare on an absolute basis, that's certainly going to look higher.

Mig，關於我們的積壓工作，我認為有幾件事需要討論。相對於歷史增長的積壓水平，其中一些只是來自我們對我們機器價格點的估值增加，對吧？因此，如果您在絕對基礎上進行比較，那肯定會看起來更高。

Certainly, the last couple of years, order books have run further than that they've had during prior years. And I think that reflects the environment that we're in where demand is far exceeding supply. Certainly, if we get back to a more normalized supply and demand environment, that can moderate a little bit. But with respect to 2024, it still remains. It's still a little early, I think, to have a perspective in terms of how far those order books are going to run ahead of the year.

當然，在過去的幾年裡，訂單比往年增長得更多。我認為這反映了我們所處的需求遠遠超過供應的環境。當然，如果我們回到更加正常的供需環境，這種情況會有所緩和。但相對於2024年，它仍然存在。我認為，現在就這些訂單將在今年之前運行多遠有一個看法還為時過早。

What I would tell you, though, is based on where we are at right now, we expect to have little field inventory by the end of the year. And many of our dealers are fully expecting that some products are going to remain on allocation in 2024. Again, that's what we see today. But again, we'll let this season play out. We'll let this crop play out before we have a fully firm view on what that backlog looks like for next year.

不過，我要告訴你的是，根據我們目前的情況，我們預計到今年年底現場庫存很少。我們的許多經銷商都完全期望某些產品將在 2024 年繼續分配。同樣，這就是我們今天所看到的。但同樣，我們會讓這個賽季結束。在我們對明年的積壓情況有一個完全堅定的看法之前，我們會讓這批作物發揮作用。

Mig, it's Josh. Maybe a couple of things to add. Some of this too is impacted by the supply chain and what is the status of the supply chain and the ability to get material to produce, which impacts how far out we're ordered. I think the -- that's really, really critical. I think the other component is thinking about where we at from a field inventory perspective, where our dealers at. This year, we have, by and large, been serving retail customers. So we have not been building stock for dealer inventory. So I think that's an important opportunity, that dealers would like to have a little more inventory that's not just going to retail as we look forward in '24.

米格，是喬希。也許有幾件事要補充。其中一些也受到供應鏈的影響，以及供應鏈的狀態和生產材料的能力，這會影響我們訂購的時間。我認為 - 這真的非常重要。我認為另一個組成部分是從現場庫存的角度考慮我們在哪裡，我們的經銷商在哪裡。今年，我們基本上一直在為零售客戶服務。所以我們沒有為經銷商庫存建立庫存。所以我認為這是一個重要的機會，經銷商希望擁有更多的庫存，而不僅僅是像我們在 24 年期待的那樣用於零售。

Our next question will come from Tami Zakaria with JP Morgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

Fantastic quarter. So going back to the dealer inventory levels, and you said you don't expect much restocking this year. Can you comment where dealer inventory currently stands in a number of months for tractors and combines in, let's say, North America, Europe and South America versus (inaudible). I'm trying to gauge what the volume benefit to you could be in 2024 if restocking finally happens?

很棒的季度。所以回到經銷商庫存水平，你說你預計今年不會有太多補貨。您能否評論經銷商庫存在幾個月內的拖拉機和聯合收割機庫存，比方說，北美、歐洲和南美與（聽不清）相比。我正在嘗試衡量如果最終重新進貨，您在 2024 年的數量收益是多少？

Tami, I would say overall inventory remains below historic averages. And there's probably -- there's a few pockets where it's built, and I'll call those out. But North America, large ag again, we don't see any big builds this year. If we compare where we are today versus historical averages, if I look at 220-plus horsepower tractors, we're sitting at about 14% inventory to sales ratios.

塔米，我想說整體庫存仍低於歷史平均水平。並且可能 - 它的構建位置有幾個口袋，我會把它們說出來。但是北美，又是大型公司，今年我們看不到任何大型建築。如果我們將今天的位置與歷史平均水平進行比較，如果我查看 220 馬力以上的拖拉機，我們的庫存與銷售比率約為 14%。

Typically, that's going to be in the mid-20s to maybe even low 30s at this point in the year. Four-wheel drives and combines, I think, are at a similar point there. And so I think there's definitely some restocking that will serve as a tailwind in subsequent years there.

通常情況下，這將在 20 年代中期到今年這個時候甚至可能低於 30 年代。我認為，四輪驅動和聯合收割機處於相似的位置。因此，我認為肯定會有一些補貨將在隨後的幾年中起到順風作用。

C&F is really a similar narrative. We're sitting between 15% and 20% inventory to sales ratios, and typically, that's going to run in the mid-30s to maybe even low 40s depending on what our expectation is of the market. So there is a little bit of restocking tailwind. I think that's more of a '24 event, assuming that the supply chain continues to get better and demand holds.

C&F 確實是一個類似的敘述。我們的庫存與銷售比率介於 15% 和 20% 之間，通常情況下，這將在 30 年代中期運行，甚至可能低於 40 年代，具體取決於我們對市場的預期。所以有一點補貨順風。我認為這更像是一個 24 小時的活動，假設供應鏈繼續變得更好並且需求保持不變。

Where we have seen a few areas of inventory build, as we called out earlier, it's really on the small compact utility tractors, so the under 40-horsepower, where you've seen our inventory get to about a 50% inventory to sales ratio. The industry is even higher, maybe about 10 points higher. And then the other pockets that have built a little bit have been really in Brazil, CE and Brazil small ag. And Brazil has been a market where it's kind of -- it's really a tale of 2 markets there.

正如我們之前所說，我們已經看到一些庫存增加的地方，它實際上是在小型緊湊型多用途拖拉機上，所以在 40 馬力以下，你已經看到我們的庫存達到大約 50% 的庫存銷售率.行業更高，可能高出10個點左右。然後其他一些已經建立起來的口袋真的在巴西、CE 和巴西小 ag。巴西一直是一個市場——它真的是一個關於那裡兩個市場的故事。

Inventory, I would think, is right in line with where we want it to be for large ag. It's built a little bit on the small ag side. And what you're seeing there is those producers have a little more sensitivity to higher interest rates. And I think as a result, that's really cooled the market a bit here in the first quarter. We'll see how that trends. We're watching it really closely for those 5 Series, 6 Series tractors that we sell in the Brazilian market. But otherwise, I would say inventory there is more normalized.

我認為，庫存正好符合我們希望大型 ag 的位置。它是在小型 ag 端構建的。你所看到的是，這些生產商對更高的利率更加敏感。我認為，這確實讓第一季度的市場有所降溫。我們將看看趨勢如何。我們正在密切關注我們在巴西市場銷售的 5 系列、6 系列拖拉機。但除此之外，我會說那裡的庫存更加規範化。

Got it. That's very helpful. Can I ask a quick follow-on? So -- and I'm sorry if I missed it. Can you quantify by how much your second quarter production rates would be up sequentially and year-over-year?

知道了。這很有幫助。我可以問一個快速跟進嗎？所以——如果我錯過了，我很抱歉。你能量化你的第二季度生產率將環比和同比增長多少嗎？

Certainly. So for North America large ag, our large factories like Waterloo and Harvester Works, we talked about the first quarter having about 25% less production days than what we would have had in the fourth quarter. So sequentially, it was significantly less production days. Now as we look forward to the second quarter, second quarter we'll have, I would say, an average number of production days. So more similar to what we had in the fourth quarter of 2022. It's roughly between 60 and 65 production days for that quarter.

當然。因此，對於北美大型 ag，我們的大型工廠，如 Waterloo 和 Harvester Works，我們談到第一季度的生產天數比第四季度減少了約 25%。因此，連續生產天數明顯減少。現在，當我們期待第二季度時，我會說第二季度的平均生產天數。與我們在 2022 年第四季度的情況更相似。該季度大約有 60 到 65 個生產日。

Tami, maybe 1 thing to add as we think about broadly across all of our businesses, seasonality, as Brent mentioned, returning to look much more similar to what it has in the past, but I would note 2Q, 3Q are probably much more similar from a top line and margin point of view than they historically have been. So I think we would see a little bit flatter sales and margin between 2Q compared to 3Q versus historical.

塔米，當我們廣泛考慮我們所有業務時，也許要添加一件事，正如布倫特提到的那樣，季節性回歸看起來與過去更相似，但我會注意到第二季度、第三季度可能更相似從頂線和利潤率的角度來看，它們比歷史上的水平要高。因此，我認為與歷史相比，第二季度的銷售額和利潤率會比第三季度略微下降。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

I'm wondering if you could just give us an update on precision ag on the rollout on an aftermarket basis, where do we stand in terms of product offerings and aftermarket take rates and any variations in take rates versus what we discussed last quarter on the early order programs as the book has built on the new equipment side.

我想知道您是否可以在售後市場基礎上向我們介紹有關 precision ag 的最新信息，我們在產品供應和售後市場採用率方面的立場以及採用率的任何變化與我們上個季度在本書在新設備方面構建了早期訂購程序。

Jerry, regarding precision take rates, I would say there's not a lot new to report this quarter from last quarter. If you recall, at the end of the fourth quarter, we had already completed all of our early order programs for both crop care and combined. So we are running a little bit ahead of schedule then what our normal order book cadence would typically show. So as a result, we haven't taken a lot of new orders over the last quarter for those products as they're pretty much sold out for the entire year. We did fill out an extra month or extra quarter of tractor orders. But maybe just to reiterate some of the things that we talked about last quarter. Take rates for our [Marquee] precision ag technologies all moved up notably things like ExactEmerge and ExactApply saw higher take rates. And then some of our more recent precision ag product offerings like ExactRate or the sugarcane harvester CH950 also improved remarkably.

傑里，關於精確率，我想說本季度與上一季度相比沒有太多新的報告。如果您還記得的話，在第四季度末，我們已經完成了作物護理和綜合護理的所有早期訂單計劃。因此，我們比正常的訂單節奏通常會顯示的計劃提前了一點。因此，我們在上個季度沒有為這些產品接到很多新訂單，因為它們在全年幾乎都已售罄。我們確實完成了額外一個月或額外四分之一的拖拉機訂單。但也許只是重申我們上個季度談到的一些事情。我們的 [Marquee] 精密 ag 技術的採用率都顯著上升，例如 ExactEmerge 和 ExactApply 的採用率更高。然後，我們最近推出的一些精準農業產品，如 ExactRate 或甘蔗收割機 CH950 也有了顯著改善。

I think for now, we're very focused on this next generation of products like autonomy, like See & Spray. And then, Jerry, you also brought up retrofit. This is also another part of the tech stack that we're investing in significantly right now. And I think still early days there, but really excited about some of the things that you'll see hit the market over the next couple of years.

我認為目前，我們非常專注於下一代產品，例如自動駕駛，例如 See & Spray。然後，傑里，你還提到了改造。這也是我們目前正在大力投資的技術堆棧的另一部分。而且我認為還處於早期階段，但對於您將在未來幾年內投放市場的一些產品感到非常興奮。

Jerry, as one thing you'll hear from us, too, I think is a shift to think about utilization including further engagement with our dealers. And then our teams recently met with our dealers, we have an annual precision ag meeting, and there's a lot of excitement and investment happening in this space to enable our customers to get more out of the solutions that we deliver and better outcomes. And as noted, you may recall in the past, we've talked about, we're including in our dealer incentive plans, precision ag engagement. So that's a component of their plan. So that's new for '23, but underlines the importance of what we're doing there and the dealer's commitment.

傑里，你也會從我們這裡聽到一件事，我認為這是一種考慮利用的轉變，包括與我們的經銷商進一步接觸。然後我們的團隊最近與我們的經銷商會面，我們舉行了年度精密 ag 會議，並且在這個領域發生了很多興奮和投資，以使我們的客戶能夠從我們提供的解決方案中獲得更多收益並獲得更好的結果。如前所述，您可能還記得過去，我們已經討論過，我們在我們的經銷商激勵計劃中包括了精確的 ag 參與。所以這是他們計劃的一部分。所以這是 23 年的新內容，但強調了我們在那裡所做的事情和經銷商承諾的重要性。

Our next question will come from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題將來自克里斯汀歐文和奧本海默。

Brent, you started to talk about this a little bit in a question about the inventory levels. But I'm wondering if you can give a little bit more commentary on what you're seeing across South America just some on the ground for near-term activity levels. But really, I'd love to focus on the longer term what your view is on your relative positioning in the region?

布倫特，您在有關庫存水平的問題中開始談論這一點。但我想知道你是否可以就你在南美洲看到的一些近期活動水平的實地情況發表更多評論。但說真的，我想從長遠來看你對你在該地區的相對定位有何看法？

Yes, thanks, Kristen, for the question. Maybe a couple of -- I'll make a couple of near-term comments and then would love to talk about the longer term there.

是的，謝謝克里斯汀提出的問題。也許有幾個——我會發表一些近期的評論，然後很想談談那裡的長期。

I mean for 2023, market that's going to see record production for corn and soy and near-record production for cotton and sugar. Profitability will be outstanding this year. So really good near-term fundamentals. Our guides up flat to up 5% after a really big 2022. So we're really excited about the fundamentals there. Right now, also in the near term, and I'll point this out, it is a little bit of a tail of 2 markets, right, where large ag is performing at a higher level than small ag. Again, small ag, more sensitivity to things like interest rates. But Brazil continues to be the strongest market for us in South America.

我的意思是到 2023 年，玉米和大豆的產量將創下歷史新高，棉花和糖的產量將接近創紀錄水平。今年的盈利能力將非常出色。所以近期基本面非常好。在一個非常大的 2022 年之後，我們的指引持平至上漲 5%。因此，我們對那裡的基本面感到非常興奮。現在，也是在短期內，我會指出這一點，它有點像 2 個市場的尾巴，對，大型 ag 的表現水平高於小型 ag。同樣，小型公司對利率等因素更加敏感。但巴西仍然是我們在南美洲最強勁的市場。

Now longer term, it is a market we are incredibly excited about. There's probably no other market in the world that has the scale that Brazil has. And the need for technology there is so significant. And it's not just this next-generation technology that we're talking about, there's a lot of tools that we have today that haven't been fully deployed in Brazil. Connectivity is maybe one of the biggest barriers. We're working really hard to solve that. And when we do solve that, we think there's a significant unlock just utilizing todays' technology much less when we get to a point where we've got things like autonomy and See & Spray deployed in Brazil.

從長遠來看，這是一個我們非常興奮的市場。世界上可能沒有其他市場具有巴西的規模。那裡對技術的需求是如此之大。我們談論的不僅僅是這種下一代技術，我們今天擁有的許多工具還沒有在巴西得到充分部署。連通性可能是最大的障礙之一。我們正在努力解決這個問題。當我們確實解決了這個問題時，我們認為當我們在巴西部署了自治和 See & Spray 等東西時，我們認為只需更少地利用當今的技術就可以解鎖。

So you'll continue to see that as a market. We're going to invest heavily in, in a market that really plays to our strength, particularly as we've seen just a continuation of this migration from lower horsepower equipment to higher horsepower, more precise equipment, I think it really plays to Deere strength longer term there.

所以你會繼續將其視為一個市場。我們將在一個真正發揮我們優勢的市場上投入大量資金，特別是當我們看到這種從低馬力設備到更高馬力、更精確設備的持續遷移時，我認為這對迪爾來說真的很重要實力長期存在。

Kristen, as Brent mentioned, the appetite and the adoption of technology there, in particular in Brazil, is happening faster than anywhere else in the world. I think importantly, we've already gone on a significant journey with our dealers over -- really over the past 2 decades in terms of building dealers of scale with the ability to support service, very sophisticated farmers, high levels of technology, and they're very excited about it. The other important piece, too, is we've talked about in the past, we have a target of having margins in South America, be North American like, and we've really done that. Over the last year, we've seen the margin performance significantly improved to now where it's North American like, if not a bit better. So we feel really good about the progress in the future there in an area of continued focus.

克里斯汀，正如布倫特提到的那樣，那裡的胃口和技術採用速度比世界其他任何地方都快，尤其是在巴西。我認為重要的是，我們已經與我們的經銷商一起踏上了一段重要的旅程——實際上在過去的 20 年裡，在建立具有支持服務能力的規模經銷商、非常成熟的農民、高水平的技術方面，他們對此非常興奮。另一個重要的部分也是我們過去討論過的，我們的目標是在南美獲得利潤，像北美一樣，我們真的做到了。在過去的一年裡，我們已經看到利潤率表現顯著提高到現在北美的水平，如果不是更好的話。因此，我們對未來在持續關注的領域取得的進展感到非常滿意。

I think we have time for 1 last caller.

我想我們有時間接聽最後一位來電者。

Our next question comes from Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Mike Shlisky。戴維森。

You touched on this in passing earlier, Brent, I think, but you had mentioned advanced fleet age and the driver production in precision ag. If you meet your overall financial goals for 2023, do you think farmers will have called up on 3 days by the end of the year? Will they still be older than they probably should be going into 2024. And maybe to answer that question and a similar one on construction and forestry, will that also be still age going into 2024.

我想，布倫特，你之前順便談到了這一點，但你提到了先進的艦隊年齡和精密 ag 的駕駛員生產。如果您實現了 2023 年的總體財務目標，您認為到年底農民會召集 3 天嗎？到 2024 年，他們的年齡是否仍會超過他們可能應該達到的年齡。也許要回答這個問題以及關於建築和林業的類似問題，到 2024 年，他們的年齡是否仍然存在。

Mike, thanks for the question. It all depend a little bit on what product line we're talking about for large ag. If we meet our production goals, this year tractors will sort of maintain their rate. We won't -- they won't age out further, but they really won't get younger. We pointed this out before in the past. Our production levels in 2023 are still 20%, 25% below prior replacement cycles. So as a result, we'll likely just maintain large tractor age in 2023.

邁克，謝謝你的提問。這完全取決於我們談論的大型 ag 產品線。如果我們達到我們的生產目標，今年拖拉機將保持其速度。我們不會——他們不會變老，但他們真的不會變年輕。我們過去曾指出過這一點。我們在 2023 年的生產水平仍比之前的更換週期低 20%、25%。因此，我們很可能會在 2023 年保持大型拖拉機的年齡。

We'll make a little bit of progress on combines pulling down the age a bit, but I'd note that where the ending point for this year is still above sort of the average fleet age over a longer period of time. For construction, it depends on the end market we're talking about, to some degree. That age is normalizing in some pockets. But we also have, I would say, the rental channel is really refleeting right now. And this is because they obviously had lower CapEx budgets in 2020, '21. And then in 2022, they weren't able to get maybe as much allocation as they wanted, given how earlier in the year, that market was so strong. So I think there's probably a longer way to go when we think about rental fleet age and that may be a multiyear journey there.

我們將在聯合收割機上取得一些進展，將年齡拉低一點，但我會注意到，今年的終點仍然高於較長一段時間內的平均機隊年齡。對於建築，它在某種程度上取決於我們所談論的終端市場。這個年齡在一些口袋裡正在正常化。但我們也有，我想說的是，租賃渠道現在確實正在發生變化。這是因為他們在 2020 年 21 年的資本支出預算顯然較低。然後在 2022 年，考慮到今年早些時候市場如此強勁，他們可能無法獲得他們想要的配置。所以我認為，當我們考慮租賃機隊年齡時，可能還有更長的路要走，那可能是一個多年的旅程。

And that's our final question for today. We thank everybody for joining us and look forward to reporting in 3 months from now. Thanks all.

這是我們今天的最後一個問題。我們感謝大家加入我們，並期待 3 個月後的報告。謝謝大家。

That will conclude today's conference, and we thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

今天的會議到此結束，我們感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連接。