強鹿 (DE) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Deere & Company's Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Brent Norwood, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

早上好，歡迎來到迪爾公司的第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係總監布倫特諾伍德先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Hello. Also on the call today are Josh Jepsen, Chief Financial Officer; Dave Gilmore, Senior Vice President, Ag and Turf Sales and Marketing. Kanlaya Barr, Director of Corporate Economics; and Rachel Bach, Manager of Investor Communications.

你好。今天參加電話會議的還有首席財務官 Josh Jepsen；農業和草坪銷售與營銷高級副總裁 Dave Gilmore。企業經濟總監 Kanlaya Barr；和投資者溝通經理 Rachel Bach。

Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's second quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal year 2023. After that, we'll respond to your questions.

今天，我們將仔細研究迪爾第二季度的收益，然後花一些時間討論我們的市場和我們目前對 2023 財年的展望。之後，我們將回答您的問題。

Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.

請注意，幻燈片可用於補充今天上午的電話會議。可以在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 上訪問它們。

First, a reminder. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants on the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call. This call includes forward-looking statements concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to uncertainties, risks, changes in circumstances and other factors that are difficult to predict. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K, Risk Factors in the annual Form 10-K as updated by reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

首先，提醒一下。該電話正在互聯網上進行現場直播並進行錄音，以供迪爾公司將來傳輸和使用。未經 Deere 明確書面同意，嚴禁以任何其他方式使用、錄製或傳輸此受版權保護的廣播的任何部分。電話會議（包括問答環節）的參與者同意，他們在所有媒體中的肖像和評論可能會被存儲並用作財報電話會議的一部分。此電話會議包括有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受不確定性、風險、情況變化和其他難以預測的因素的影響。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的其他信息包含在公司最新的 8-K 表格中，年度 10-K 表格中的風險因素根據提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告進行了更新。

This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles, generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings and Events.

此調用還可能包括不符合美國公認會計原則的會計原則的財務措施。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比較的 GAAP 措施的調節，包含在新聞稿中，並發佈在我們網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的“季度收益和事件”下。

I will now turn the call over to Rachel Bach.

我現在將把電話轉給雷切爾巴赫。

Good morning, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. John Deere completed the second quarter with strong performance. Financial results for the quarter included 24% margin for equipment operations. Across our businesses, outperformance was driven by strong demand, favorable pricing and operational execution enabled by supply chain improvements. Our fundamentals remain healthy, providing a strong second half of fiscal year 2023 and support an order backlog that extends throughout the fiscal year.

早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們。約翰迪爾以強勁的表現結束了第二季度。本季度的財務業績包括 24% 的設備運營利潤率。在我們的業務中，強勁的需求、有利的定價和供應鏈改進帶來的運營執行推動了業績的增長。我們的基本面保持健康，在 2023 財年下半年表現強勁，並支持整個財年的訂單積壓。

Likewise, the Construction & Forestry division continues to benefit from healthy demand with order books virtually full for the remainder of the fiscal year.

同樣，建築與林業部門繼續受益於健康的需求，本財年剩餘時間的訂單幾乎已滿。

Slide 3 begins with the results for the second quarter. Net sales and revenues were up 30% to $17.387 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were up 34% to $16.079 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $2.86 billion or $9.65 per diluted share. Taking a closer look at the individual segments, we begin with the Production and Precision Ag business on Slide 4.

幻燈片 3 從第二季度的結果開始。淨銷售額和收入增長 30% 至 173.87 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額增長 34% 至 160.79 億美元。歸屬於迪爾公司的淨收入為 28.6 億美元或每股攤薄收益 9.65 美元。仔細查看各個細分市場，我們從幻燈片 4 上的生產和精密 Ag 業務開始。

Net sales of $7.822 billion were up 53% compared to the second quarter last year, and, in fact, more than our own forecast, primarily due to increased shipment volumes and price realization. Price realization was positive by about 20 points. We expect price realization to normalize as inflation continues to subside. Currency translation was negative by approximately 3 points.

與去年第二季度相比，淨銷售額為 78.22 億美元，增長了 53%，事實上，這超過了我們自己的預測，這主要是由於出貨量和價格實現的增加。價格實現為正約 20 個百分點。我們預計隨著通貨膨脹繼續消退，價格實現將正常化。貨幣換算下降約 3 個百分點。

Operating profit was $2.17 billion, resulting in a 27.7% operating margin. The year-over-year increase was primarily due to favorable price realization and improved shipment volume. These were partially offset by increased R&D and SA&G spending, higher production costs and unfavorable foreign currency exchange.

營業利潤為 21.7 億美元，營業利潤率為 27.7%。同比增長主要是由於有利的價格實現和出貨量的增加。這些被增加的研發和 SA&G 支出、更高的生產成本和不利的外匯兌換所部分抵消。

Prior year results were negatively impacted by an impairment of $46 million related to events in Russia and Ukraine.

前一年的業績受到與俄羅斯和烏克蘭事件相關的 4600 萬美元減值的負面影響。

Moving to Small Ag and Turf on Slide 5. Net sales were up 16%, totaling $4.145 billion in the second quarter as a result of price realization and higher shipment volumes, partially offset by negative currency translation. Price realization was positive by just over 12 points while currency was negative by roughly 2 points.

轉到幻燈片 5 上的 Small Ag 和 Turf。第二季度淨銷售額增長 16%，總計 41.45 億美元，這是由於價格實現和更高的出貨量，部分被負貨幣換算所抵消。價格實現略高於 12 個百分點，而貨幣則大約為負 2 個百分點。

Operating profit was improved year-over-year at $849 million, resulting in a 20.5% operating margin. The increased profit was primarily due to price realization and to a lesser extent, higher shipment volumes and mix, which were partially offset by higher production costs, R&D and SA&G and negative currency translation.

營業利潤同比增長 8.49 億美元，營業利潤率為 20.5%。利潤增加主要是由於價格實現，在較小程度上是由於更高的出貨量和組合，這部分被更高的生產成本、研發和 SA&G 以及負貨幣換算所抵消。

Slide 6 covers our industry outlook for Ag and Turf markets globally. We expect industry sales of large Ag equipment in U.S. and Canada to be up approximately 10%, reflecting another year of strong demand. We've seen continued industry theme since last quarter with strong Ag fundamentals, a historically high fleet age and low field inventory from prior year supply constraints. We expect elevated demand to continue for the back half of the year as evidenced by an order bank that extends into fiscal year '24.

幻燈片 6 涵蓋了我們對全球農業和草坪市場的行業展望。我們預計美國和加拿大大型 Ag 設備的行業銷售額將增長約 10%，反映出又一年的強勁需求。自上個季度以來，我們看到了持續的行業主題，農業基本面強勁，機隊年齡處於歷史高位以及前一年供應限制導致的現場庫存較低。我們預計今年下半年需求將持續增加，訂單銀行將延續至 24 財年。

For Small Ag and Turf, we estimate industry sales in the U.S. and Canada to be down around 5% as strength for midsized equipment is offset by weakness in more consumer-oriented products. Demand for compact tractors has declined year-over-year, resulting in inventory levels rising to pre-COVID levels. Meanwhile, hay and forage segment remained strong, driving demand for products like our 100- to 180-horsepower tractors, wind rowers and Round Balers.

對於 Small Ag 和 Turf，我們估計美國和加拿大的行業銷售額將下降 5% 左右，因為中型設備的優勢被更多面向消費者的產品的疲軟所抵消。對小型拖拉機的需求逐年下降，導致庫存水平上升至 COVID 之前的水平。與此同時，乾草和草料市場依然強勁，推動了對我們 100 至 180 馬力拖拉機、風力划船機和圓捆打捆機等產品的需求。

Moving on to Europe. The industry is forecasted to be flat to up 5%. Commodity prices have softened from near all-time highs in recent months, but farm input prices are coming down as well. As a result, arable cash flow is normalizing from recent peaks, but still above average and continuing to drive demand for the rest of the year.

繼續前往歐洲。該行業預計將持平至增長 5%。大宗商品價格已從近幾個月的歷史高位回落，但農業投入品價格也在下降。因此，可耕地現金流從最近的峰值開始正常化，但仍高於平均水平，並繼續推動今年剩餘時間的需求。

In South America, we expect industry sales of tractors and combines to be flat, holding strong relative to historical levels. Ag fundamentals remain solid in Brazil, but markets have tempered by delays in government sponsoring -- sponsored financing programs for small Ag producers. Meanwhile, Argentina continues to grapple with a historic drought, which has significantly pressured yields for the year.

在南美洲，我們預計拖拉機和聯合收割機的行業銷售持平，相對於歷史水平保持強勁。巴西的農業基本面仍然穩固，但市場因政府資助的延遲而有所緩和——為小型農業生產商提供資助的融資計劃。與此同時，阿根廷繼續與歷史性乾旱作鬥爭，這給今年的單產帶來了巨大壓力。

Industry sales in Asia are forecasted to be down moderately. Now digging into the segment forecast beginning on Slide 7. For Production and Precision Ag, net sales continue to be forecasted up around 20% for the full year. The forecast assumes about 15 points of positive price realization for the full year and minimal currency impact.

預計亞洲的行業銷售額將溫和下降。現在從幻燈片 7 開始深入研究細分市場預測。對於生產和精密 Ag，預計全年淨銷售額將繼續增長 20% 左右。該預測假設全年價格實現約 15 個正點且貨幣影響最小。

As noted last quarter, we expect price realization to moderate in the latter half of the fiscal year relative to our reported first 6 months. For the segment's operating margin, our full year forecast is now between 25% and 26%.

正如上個季度所述，我們預計本財年下半年的價格實現將比我們報告的前 6 個月有所緩和。對於該部門的營業利潤率，我們的全年預測目前在 25% 至 26% 之間。

Slide 8 shows our forecast for the Small Ag and Turf segment. We now expect net sales to be up around 5% in fiscal year '23. This guidance includes about 9 points of positive price realization and just over 0.5 point of currency headwind. The segment's operating margin is now projected to be between 15.5% and 16.5%.

幻燈片 8 顯示了我們對 Small Ag 和 Turf 部分的預測。我們現在預計 23 財年的淨銷售額將增長 5% 左右。該指引包括約 9 個積極的價格實現點和略高於 0.5 個貨幣逆風點。該部門的營業利潤率目前預計在 15.5% 至 16.5% 之間。

With that, we'll turn to Construction & Forestry on Slide 9. Net sales for the quarter were $4.112 billion, up 23%, primarily due to price realization and improved shipment volumes. Price realization was positive by nearly 13 points while currency translation was negative by approximately 1.5 points. Operating profit increased year-over-year to $838 million, resulting in a 20.4% operating margin due to price realization and higher shipment volumes and mix, partially offset by higher production costs and increased SA&G and R&D expenses.

有了這個，我們將轉向幻燈片 9 上的建築與林業。本季度的淨銷售額為 41.12 億美元，增長 23%，主要是由於價格實現和出貨量增加。價格實現為正值近 13 個百分點，而貨幣換算為負值約 1.5 個百分點。營業利潤同比增長至 8.38 億美元，由於價格實現以及更高的出貨量和組合，營業利潤率達到 20.4%，部分被更高的生產成本以及增加的 SA&G 和研發費用所抵消。

When comparing to last year, keep in mind, the prior period results included a non-repeating net benefit of $279 million, mostly driven by a gain on the previously held equity investment in the Deere Hitachi joint venture.

與去年相比，請記住，上一期業績包括 2.79 億美元的非重複淨收益，這主要是由於先前持有的迪爾日立合資企業股權投資收益所致。

Slide 10 shows our 2023 Construction and Forestry industry outlook. Industry sales of earthmoving and compact construction equipment in North America are both projected to remain flat to up 5%. End markets for earthmoving and compact equipment remained relatively stable. While the commercial real estate and office segments weakened, the oil and gas sector is leveling and housing starts appear to have bottomed. Headwinds from year-over-year declines in residential and commercial have been more than offset by strong U.S. infrastructure spending and rental inventory restocking.

幻燈片 10 展示了我們對 2023 年建築和林業行業的展望。北美土方和緊湊型建築設備的行業銷售額預計將持平至 5%。土方和緊湊型設備的終端市場保持相對穩定。雖然商業地產和寫字樓板塊走弱，但石油和天然氣板塊趨於平穩，新屋開工似乎已經觸底。美國強勁的基礎設施支出和租賃庫存補充庫存抵消了住宅和商業同比下降帶來的不利影響。

Importantly, dealer inventory remains below historical averages. In Forestry, we estimate the global industry will be flat as the U.S. and Canada markets continue to soften, while Europe continues to grow. Global road building markets are forecasted to be flat, North America remains the strongest market, compensating for sluggish fundamentals in Europe as well as parts of Asia.

重要的是，經銷商庫存仍低於歷史平均水平。在林業方面，我們估計全球行業將持平，因為美國和加拿大市場繼續疲軟，而歐洲繼續增長。全球道路建設市場預計將持平，北美仍然是最強勁的市場，彌補了歐洲和亞洲部分地區低迷的基本面。

Moving on to the C&F segment outlook on Slide 11. Deere's Construction and Forestry 2023 net sales are now forecasted to be up around 15%. Our net sales guidance for the year considers about 10 points of positive price realization. Operating margin is now expected to be in the range of 18% to 19%.

轉到幻燈片 11 的 C&F 部門展望。現在預計迪爾建築和林業 2023 年淨銷售額將增長 15% 左右。我們今年的淨銷售額指導考慮了大約 10 個積極的價格實現點。現在預計營業利潤率將在 18% 至 19% 之間。

Next, we'll shift to our financial services operations on Slide 12. Worldwide Financial Services net income attributable to Deere & Company in the second quarter was $28 million. The decrease was due to less favorable financing spreads and a higher provision for credit losses partially offset by income earned on a higher average portfolio.

接下來，我們將轉到幻燈片 12 上的金融服務業務。第二季度歸屬於迪爾公司的全球金融服務淨收入為 2800 萬美元。減少的原因是融資利差較差，信貸損失準備金較高，部分被較高平均投資組合賺取的收入所抵消。

Additionally, during the quarter, there was $135 million after-tax correction of the accounting treatment and timing of expense recognition for financing incentives offered to John Deere dealers. The accounting correction is unrelated to the current market conditions or the credit quality of the Financial Services portfolio, which remains strong.

此外，在本季度，為約翰迪爾經銷商提供的融資獎勵，會計處理和費用確認時間的稅後更正為 1.35 億美元。會計更正與當前市場狀況或金融服務組合的信用質量無關，後者仍然強勁。

For fiscal year 2023, our outlook is now $630 million, reflecting the less favorable financing spreads, the correction of the accounting treatment for financing incentives, a higher provision for credit losses, increased SA&G expenses and lower gains on operating lease dispositions, partially offset by the benefits from a higher average portfolio balance.

對於 2023 財年，我們現在的預期為 6.3 億美元，反映出融資利差較不利、融資激勵會計處理的更正、信貸損失準備金增加、SA&G 費用增加以及經營租賃處置收益減少，部分抵消了較高的平均投資組合餘額帶來的好處。

Turning to Slide 13. Credit quality remains well above historical averages with minimal allowances, past dues and write-offs as a percentage of the portfolio. Provisions for credit losses, excluding the portfolio in Russia, is that forecast to be at 17 basis points for fiscal '23 and remains below long-term averages. Meanwhile, write-offs, past dues and nonperforming loans all remained stable, reflecting strong credit quality within our portfolio.

轉到幻燈片 13。信貸質量仍然遠高於歷史平均水平，備抵、逾期未付和註銷佔投資組合的百分比很小。不包括俄羅斯投資組合的信貸損失準備金預計在 23 財年為 17 個基點，並且仍低於長期平均水平。與此同時，沖銷、逾期未付和不良貸款均保持穩定，反映出我們投資組合中的強勁信貸質量。

And lastly, on Slide 14, we've outlined our guidance for our net income, our effective tax rate and operating cash flow. For fiscal year 2023, we are again raising our outlook for net income to be between $9.25 billion and $9.5 billion. Reflecting the strong results for the second quarter, and continued optimism for the remainder of the year. Next, our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate between 23% and 25%.

最後，在幻燈片 14 上，我們概述了我們對淨收入、有效稅率和經營現金流的指導。對於 2023 財年，我們再次將淨收入預期上調至 92.5 億美元至 95 億美元之間。反映了第二季度的強勁業績，以及對今年剩餘時間的持續樂觀情緒。接下來，我們的指導包含 23% 至 25% 之間的有效稅率。

Lastly, our cash flow from equipment operations is now projected to be in the range of $10 billion to $10.5 billion.

最後，我們來自設備運營的現金流現在預計在 100 億至 105 億美元之間。

That concludes our formal comments. We will now shift to a discussion of a few specific topics relevant to this quarter before we open the line for Q&A.

我們的正式評論到此結束。在我們打開問答熱線之前，我們現在將轉而討論與本季度相關的幾個特定主題。

Let's start with Deere's performance this quarter, Brent. We saw Production and Precision Ag net revenue up 53% year-over-year, and operating margins expanded 7 points. Small Ag and Turf, up 16% on revenue with 6 points of additional operating margin and C&F with 23% top line growth accompanied by 4% operating margin expansion, excluding the nonrecurring items.

讓我們從迪爾本季度的表現開始吧，布倫特。我們看到 Production and Precision Ag 淨收入同比增長 53%，營業利潤率增長 7 個百分點。 Small Ag 和 Turf，收入增長 16%，營業利潤率增加 6 個百分點，C&F 收入增長 23%，營業利潤率增長 4%，不包括非經常性項目。

What were the primary drivers of the strong quarter?

強勁季度的主要驅動力是什麼？

Thanks, Rachel. I would start by saying the performance came in ahead of our own internal expectations due to 2 primary drivers. From a top line perspective, our factories had their best quarter of execution since the beginning of COVID. Supply chain improvements enabled our factories to hit their line rates and deliver machines at a faster pace. As a result, we were able to pull ahead some of the year's production into the second quarter, which will take some pressure off the back half. So we'd expect revenue to be down sequentially by a bit over 10% in the third quarter. With factories running more smoothly, we experienced fewer production inefficiencies. In fact, the second quarter saw the lowest level of production cost inflation since 1Q 2021. Fewer factory disruptions due to labor and supply chain challenges enabled us to achieve better overhead efficiency and incur lower premium freight costs.

謝謝，雷切爾。我首先要說的是，由於 2 個主要驅動因素，性能超出了我們自己的內部預期。從頂線的角度來看，我們的工廠有自 COVID 開始以來最好的執行季度。供應鏈的改進使我們的工廠能夠達到生產線速度並以更快的速度交付機器。因此，我們能夠將今年的部分產量提前到第二季度，這將減輕下半年的一些壓力。因此，我們預計第三季度收入將連續下降 10% 以上。隨著工廠運行更加順暢，我們遇到的生產效率低下情況也有所減少。事實上，第二季度的生產成本通脹是自 2021 年第一季度以來的最低水平。由於勞動力和供應鏈挑戰而導致的工廠中斷減少，使我們能夠實現更高的管理效率並降低保費運費。

Furthermore, production costs benefited from better raw material compares relative to last year.

此外，與去年相比，生產成本得益於更好的原材料。

That's helpful perspective on the benefits of the improving supply chain in our factories. As we pull production forward, how does that shape the back half of the year? Will the supply chain allow for increased production in the second half?

這是關於改善我們工廠供應鏈的好處的有益觀點。隨著我們將生產向前推進，這對下半年有何影響？下半年供應鍊是否允許增產？

Supply chain improvements have enabled our suppliers to deliver towards their volume commitments and improve their on-time deliveries. That said, there are still enough constraints in the supply base that will limit higher levels of production later in the year. Our safety stocks for critical components are still low and our margin of error is relatively thin. Given the existing constraints, we expect to execute to schedule but don't foresee adding a lot more production to the back half of the year.

供應鏈的改進使我們的供應商能夠兌現他們的數量承諾並提高他們的準時交貨率。也就是說，供應基礎仍然存在足夠的限制，這將限制今年晚些時候更高水平的生產。我們關鍵部件的安全庫存仍然很低，我們的誤差幅度相對較小。鑑於現有的限制，我們希望按計劃執行，但預計不會在今年下半年增加更多的產量。

Furthermore, we are also laser-focused on managing field inventory as we think about exiting fiscal year 2023. The real benefit of the pull ahead is the return to more seasonal production schedules that are closer to our customers' seasonal use of our products.

此外，在我們考慮退出 2023 財年時，我們還專注於管理現場庫存。提前的真正好處是回歸到更接近客戶季節性使用我們產品的季節性生產計劃。

My next question is for Kanlaya. There are a lot of variables impacting farmer fundamentals this season. Farm net income will be at a second all-time high, albeit down from last year's record. Commodity prices remain volatile, while input prices are coming down. Meanwhile, stocks use remained tight and 2 of the 4 largest export markets for corn remain severely constrained. How are these factors impacting farmers right now?

我的下一個問題是關於 Kanlaya 的。本季有很多變量影響農民的基本面。農場淨收入將創歷史第二高，但低於去年的記錄。大宗商品價格仍然波動，而投入品價格正在下降。與此同時，庫存使用仍然緊張，4 個最大的玉米出口市場中的 2 個仍然受到嚴重限制。這些因素目前對農民有何影響？

Well, thanks for the question, Rachel. There are many factors that play here, and there's still a lot of uncertainties, especially as we are in the midst of the growing season. And in the end, it is all come down to profitability.

嗯，謝謝你的問題，雷切爾。這裡有很多因素在起作用，而且仍然存在很多不確定性，尤其是在我們正處於生長季節的時候。最後，這一切都歸結為盈利能力。

On the revenue side, also commodity prices are volatile, grain stocks continue to be tight, bumper crops in Russia, Australia and Brazil are not enough to offset the combined effect of this year's severe losses in Argentina and Ukraine. As some trend yield stock to use will remain below the 10-year average. The USDA forecasts corn and soybean prices to be the third highest in the past decade and read the second highest.

在收入方面，大宗商品價格也出現波動，糧食庫存繼續吃緊，俄羅斯、澳大利亞和巴西的豐收不足以抵消今年阿根廷和烏克蘭嚴重虧損的綜合影響。由於一些趨勢收益率庫存將保持在 10 年平均水平以下。美國農業部預測玉米和大豆價格將在過去十年中位居第三，並位居第二。

Furthermore, crop insurance reference price will provide the safety net for farmers as well. Now looking on at the cost side, input costs has come down quite a bit. Not all farmers will be able to realize those savings this year, but that could be a tailwind for the next crop. And in the end, we are looking at a lower cost per (inaudible) this year. Now putting all of this together, we are coming off a really great year last year. Income is going to moderate, but we are still looking at farmers margins that are going to be above the 10-year average.

此外，農作物保險參考價格也將為農民提供安全網。現在從成本方面來看，投入成本已經下降了很多。並非所有農民今年都能實現這些節省，但這可能是下一季作物的順風。最後，我們希望今年的每（聽不清）成本更低。現在把所有這些放在一起，我們去年度過了非常棒的一年。收入將放緩，但我們仍在關注將高於 10 年平均水平的農民利潤率。

And how about elevated interest rates globally? How are farmers continuing with this increase in cost over last year?

全球利率升高又如何？與去年相比，農民如何繼續增加成本？

Interest rate expense is only about 6% to 7% of total Ag production expenses, but a little over half of that is tied to mortgages, which are mostly fixed at lower rates. The portion that ties to operating loans that tend to be more variable, it's about 3% and that number is even smaller for roll crop producers. Their interest rate expense is less than 1% of their operating expenses. So this is nothing but the impact of high interest rate is much smaller than the tailwinds from lower input costs and fuel costs.

利率費用僅佔 Ag 生產總費用的 6% 到 7%，但其中略多於一半與抵押貸款有關，而抵押貸款大多固定在較低的利率上。與經營貸款相關的部分往往變化更大，約為 3%，對於卷作物生產商而言，這個數字甚至更低。他們的利率費用不到其運營費用的 1%。因此，這只不過是高利率的影響遠小於投入成本和燃料成本下降帶來的順風。

With that said, rising interest rates have also had an impact on real estate while the housing market has been significantly affected by the elevated interest rates, the farmland market has been relatively immune and farmland value continue to hold up through Q2 of this year.

話雖如此，利率上升也對房地產產生了影響，而房地產市場受到利率上升的顯著影響，農地市場相對免疫，農地價值在今年第二季度繼續保持穩定。

And Rachel, just to add some context from some comments that came from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City earlier this spring. When you put interest rates in perspective relative to history, roughly $0.12 of every dollar of a Midwest U.S. farm earnings is going to interest costs today versus the long-term average of $0.15.

還有雷切爾，我想從今年春天早些時候來自堪薩斯城聯邦儲備銀行的一些評論中補充一些背景信息。當你從歷史的角度來看待利率時，美國中西部農場每收入 1 美元的大約 0.12 美元將用於今天的利息成本，而長期平均水平為 0.15 美元。

As a result, customers are managing this expense very well. Also, as the Fed reported, the marginal increase in interest costs on operating loans is the financial equivalent of an additional 2.5 bushels of yield for corn. That's why a major component of our smart industrial strategy is focused on helping our customers better manage volatile periods by delivering products and solutions that minimize costs and increase yields. Our goal is to deliver products and solutions that offset and improve the variable cost structure of our farmers.

因此，客戶可以很好地管理這筆費用。此外，正如美聯儲報告的那樣，經營貸款利息成本的邊際增加相當於玉米產量增加 2.5 蒲式耳。這就是為什麼我們的智能工業戰略的一個主要組成部分是專注於通過提供可最大限度地降低成本和提高收益的產品和解決方案來幫助我們的客戶更好地管理波動時期。我們的目標是提供能夠抵消和改善農民可變成本結構的產品和解決方案。

Thanks, Dave. That really helps paint the picture. Kanlaya, what other tailwinds or headwinds should we think about over the next few years?

謝謝，戴夫。這真的有助於描繪畫面。 Kanlaya，在接下來的幾年裡我們還應該考慮哪些順風或逆風？

Well, that's a great question, Rachel. The volatility and uncertainties will continue to be with us for quite some time. However, we expect a tailwind from growing population and increased income to continue.

嗯，這是一個很好的問題，雷切爾。波動性和不確定性將繼續伴隨我們相當長一段時間。然而，我們預計人口增長和收入增加的順風將繼續存在。

In addition, biofuels will play an increasingly important part in the sustainability journey by providing a diesel alternative to the Transportation segment. including heavy-duty or off-highway vehicles, long-haul aviation and marine time.

此外，生物燃料通過為運輸部門提供柴油替代品，將在可持續發展之旅中發揮越來越重要的作用。包括重型或非公路車輛、長途航空和航海時間。

And finally, think about technological improvement in farm equipment, which will continue to drive productivity, reduce cost and provide more economic headroom. So overall, still a large number of positive tailwinds to consider.

最後，考慮農業設備的技術改進，這將繼續提高生產力、降低成本並提供更多的經濟空間。因此，總體而言，仍有大量積極因素需要考慮。

One other obvious thing to add here is while we can't control the macro volatility. We can focus proactively on monitoring and staying ahead of shifts and trends to ensure we're helping farmers be more effective and efficient in and out of the field regardless of the end market environment.

這裡要補充的另一件明顯的事情是我們無法控制宏觀波動。我們可以主動專注於監控變化和趨勢並保持領先地位，以確保無論終端市場環境如何，我們都能幫助農民在田間內外更加有效和高效。

Thanks, Josh and Kanlaya. Let's dig in a little deeper on the global issues you mentioned and focus specifically on the Brazilian market. Dave, Brazil has been one of the strongest markets in the industry over the last 3 years. What's been driving that?

謝謝，喬希和坎拉亞。讓我們更深入地探討您提到的全球問題，並特別關注巴西市場。 Dave，巴西在過去 3 年中一直是該行業最強大的市場之一。是什麼推動了它？

Well, as you correctly said, Rachel, Brazil certainly has been a great market for us, both in terms of growth and profitability. It's one of the few geographies in the world, adding production area each year. It's also a market that's rapidly adding efficiencies, migrating to higher horsepower and just beginning to adopt precision Ag technology, which plays to our strengths. The last few years have seen records both in terms of agricultural yields but also farmer profitability. The combination of record Ag production, favorable currency and growing exports has generated excellent profitability for our customers and, in turn, has driven significant demand for our equipment over the last few years.

好吧，正如你所說的那樣，雷切爾，無論是在增長還是盈利方面，巴西對我們來說都是一個很好的市場。它是世界上為數不多的每年增加生產面積的地區之一。這也是一個正在迅速提高效率、轉向更高馬力並剛剛開始採用發揮我們優勢的精密 Ag 技術的市場。過去幾年，農業產量和農民盈利能力均創下歷史新高。創紀錄的銀產量、有利的貨幣和不斷增長的出口相結合，為我們的客戶帶來了出色的盈利能力，進而在過去幾年推動了對我們設備的巨大需求。

Yes, this is Josh. One thing I'd add to Dave's comments. At the onset of our smart industrial strategy, we set a goal to achieve North American like margins or better in Latin America. And so far, we've achieved that, making the region very important to the overall financial profile of the company.

是的，這是喬希。我要添加到 Dave 的評論中的一件事。在我們的智能工業戰略開始時，我們設定了一個目標，即在拉丁美洲實現類似北美或更好的利潤率。到目前為止，我們已經實現了這一點，使該地區對公司的整體財務狀況非常重要。

I guess that leads right into my follow-up question. Dave, how are current market conditions trending? And can you give us an update post the Agrishow earlier this month?

我想這直接引出了我的後續問題。戴夫，目前的市場趨勢如何？你能給我們一個本月早些時候農業展的更新嗎？

Absolutely, Rachel. I was just down in Brazil for Agrishow, which is the largest customer farm show in Latin America. The event produced record attendance and sales, highlighting customer optimism going forward. That said, sales for small Ag equipment have been running behind pace this year, leading to increased field inventory. The government-sponsored financing plan typically gets announced at Agrishow, but it's been postponed for the time being, which has caused some delay in purchases, especially for small and medium producers who are most reliant on the government-sponsored financing for equipment purchases. Large producers on the other hand, tend to be less reliant on government-sponsored financing, instead utilizing cash, private credit lines or John Deere Financial. The delayed harvest plan has had limited impact for large Ag customers. More pressing for large producers right now is exporting the record crop that they grew this year in a timely manner, given the lack of storage for Brazilian grains. However, demand for large equipment remains stable, though we are monitoring retail activity closely for the back half of the year.

當然，雷切爾。我剛剛在巴西參加 Agrishow，這是拉丁美洲最大的客戶農場展。該活動創造了創紀錄的出席人數和銷售額，凸顯了客戶對未來的樂觀態度。也就是說，今年小型 Ag 設備的銷售一直落後於步伐，導致現場庫存增加。政府資助的融資計劃通常會在農展上公佈，但暫時被推遲，這造成了一些採購延遲，特別是對於最依賴政府資助購買設備的中小型生產商。另一方面，大型生產商往往不太依賴政府資助的融資，而是利用現金、私人信貸額度或 John Deere Financial。延遲收穫計劃對大型 Ag 客戶的影響有限。鑑於巴西穀物缺乏儲存，目前對大型生產商來說更緊迫的是及時出口他們今年創紀錄的作物。然而，儘管我們密切關註今年下半年的零售活動，但大型設備的需求仍然穩定。

I would note that we do expect to see higher in-season inventory this year, further reflecting a return to normalcy for the market.

我要指出的是，我們確實預計今年的季節性庫存會增加，進一步反映出市場回歸常態。

Appreciate the additional insight into a pivotal market everyone is watching very closely right now. I'd like to transition briefly to John Deere Financial and discuss 2 topics: First, it's been an eventful quarter for many of our nation's regional banks. Josh, can you give us an update on how John Deere Financial is faring in this environment?

感謝對每個人都在密切關注的關鍵市場的額外洞察。我想簡單地過渡到 John Deere Financial 並討論 2 個主題：首先，對於我們國家的許多地區銀行來說，這是一個多事的季度。 Josh，您能否向我們介紹一下 John Deere Financial 在這種環境下的最新情況？

Of course, Rachel. We're closely monitoring all the challenges in the banking sector as the market is contended with rising rates over the last year. Fortunately, John Deere Financial remains in excellent condition. There's been no change in our ability to fund the portfolio and the credit quality has been outstanding. As we discussed previously, our forecast this year implies past dues, nonperforming loans and write-offs are stable and remain below long-term averages.

當然，雷切爾。我們正在密切關注銀行業面臨的所有挑戰，因為市場正在應對去年利率上升的問題。幸運的是，John Deere Financial 仍處於良好狀態。我們為投資組合提供資金的能力沒有變化，信貸質量也很出色。正如我們之前所討論的，我們今年的預測意味著逾期未付、不良貸款和註銷保持穩定並低於長期平均水平。

For our lease portfolio, return rates are near zero and recovery rates are as strong as they've ever been. Our customers have had 3 very strong years financially, including 2023. So we feel like we are very well positioned here.

對於我們的租賃組合，回報率接近於零，回收率與以往一樣強勁。我們的客戶在 3 年的財務狀況非常強勁，包括 2023 年。因此我們覺得我們在這里處於非常有利的位置。

That's good to hear. And the second question on John Deere Financial, we saw net income affected by $135 million after-tax correction of accounting treatment. Can you explain what that was related to and what impact that might have, if any, on future profitability?

聽起來還不錯。關於約翰迪爾金融的第二個問題，我們看到淨收入受到 1.35 億美元的會計處理稅後更正影響。你能解釋一下這與什麼有關，以及這可能對未來的盈利能力產生什麼影響（如果有的話）嗎？

Sure thing. It relates to the accounting treatment of dealer loyalty incentive program. Effectively, we've made an accounting correction on the timing of expense recognition moving from when incentives are redeemed to when they're earned, much in line with our methods for our equipment operations incentives. Due to the coincidental timing of broader market concerns, I just want to make it abundantly clear that this is a onetime noncash accounting correction. It is unrelated to the credit quality or performance of JDF's portfolio.

當然可以。涉及經銷商忠誠度激勵計劃的會計處理。實際上，我們對費用確認的時間進行了會計更正，從獎勵兌現時轉移到獲得獎勵時，這與我們的設備運營獎勵方法非常一致。由於更廣泛的市場擔憂恰逢其時，我只想非常清楚地表明，這是一次非現金會計更正。它與 JDF 投資組合的信用質量或表現無關。

Perfect. Thanks for the clarification, Josh. The next question is related to inventory. The recent AEM data shows a year-over-year increase in large Ag inventory for products like combines and Four-Wheel-Drive tractors. Dave, can you explain what's going on with the new field inventory at the moment?

完美的。謝謝你的澄清，喬希。下一個問題與庫存有關。最近的 AEM 數據顯示，聯合收割機和四輪驅動拖拉機等產品的大量銀庫存同比增長。戴夫，你能解釋一下目前新的現場庫存情況如何嗎？

The large Ag inventory build seen recently is due to the return to normal seasonality in our production schedules. Keep in mind that year-over-year comparisons aren't as relevant because of the challenges we faced in the first half of 2022 from the labor disruption to supply chain obstacles. These challenges caused us to run at low and unhealthy levels during all of 2022, making the year-over-year increase appear somewhat inflated.

最近看到的大量 Ag 庫存是由於我們的生產計劃恢復了正常的季節性。請記住，由於我們在 2022 年上半年面臨從勞動力中斷到供應鏈障礙的挑戰，因此同比比較並不那麼重要。這些挑戰導致我們在 2022 年全年都在低水平和不健康的水平上運行，使得同比增長顯得有些膨脹。

Compared to historic averages, however, we are still well below seasonally adjusted target levels with inventory to sales ratios for 220 plus and Four-Wheel-Drive tractors in the teens as of the end of April. Pre-COVID, both products would have been at least 10 points higher in the second quarter on an inventory-to-sales ratio basis.

然而，與歷史平均水平相比，我們仍遠低於經季節性調整的目標水平，截至 4 月底，220 加和四輪驅動拖拉機的庫存與銷售比率處於十幾歲。在 COVID 之前，這兩種產品在第二季度的庫存與銷售比率基礎上至少高出 10 個百分點。

Meanwhile, our combined inventory to sales ratio currently sits at 23% as we were able to pull some of our production ahead into the second quarter. At this time, we expect the second quarter to be the highest production for combines this year. Combined inventory seasonally peaks during the quarter of highest production with historic average IS ratios greater than where we are currently.

與此同時，我們的合併庫存與銷售比率目前為 23%，因為我們能夠將部分生產提前到第二季度。目前，我們預計第二季度將是今年聯合收割機的最高產量。綜合庫存在產量最高的季度達到季節性峰值，歷史平均 IS 比率高於我們目前的水平。

There are a lot of benefits to returning to normal seasonality. One of which is it contributes to a healthier pace of used trades for our dealers and customers. These were delayed last year due to heavy fourth quarter deliveries.

恢復正常的季節性有很多好處。其中之一是它有助於我們的經銷商和客戶更健康地進行二手交易。由於第四季度的大量交付，這些在去年被推遲。

Last year, customers were reluctant to allow a dealer to remarket their used trade before the new machine arrived. Being on a more seasonal pace facilitates better used trade planning prior to the harvest season. So we've seen used inventories increase seasonally, keeping up with elevated production of new equipment, which is good for both dealers and customers.

去年，客戶不願意讓經銷商在新機器到貨之前重新銷售他們用過的舊機器。更具季節性的步伐有助於在收穫季節之前更好地使用貿易計劃。因此，我們看到二手庫存季節性增加，跟上新設備產量的增加，這對經銷商和客戶都有好處。

The most important takeaway is that by the end of the year, large Ag inventory to sales will be lower than both historic and target levels.

最重要的一點是，到今年年底，大量銀庫存與銷售量之比將低於歷史水平和目標水平。

Thanks, Dave. And one final question. Brent, how would you characterize the market environment for farm equipment as we progress through the back half of the year and into 2024.

謝謝，戴夫。最後一個問題。布倫特，隨著我們從今年下半年進入 2024 年，您如何描述農業設備的市場環境？

It's a great question, Rachel. But first, I think it's best to start with some context on how we got to this point. The current replacement cycle began in 2021 after a 6-year period of historic underinvestment in Ag equipment. And since 2021, the entire industry has been severely constrained by labor and the supply base, which kept production volumes relatively modest when compared to prior replacement periods. Inventory for new and used equipment remains below target levels, and the fleet has continued to age out for tractors, even if it's down a bit for combines.

這是一個很好的問題，雷切爾。但首先，我認為最好先了解一下我們是如何走到這一步的。在 Ag 設備歷史性投資不足 6 年後，當前的更換週期於 2021 年開始。自 2021 年以來，整個行業一直受到勞動力和供應基地的嚴重製約，與之前的更換期相比，這使得產量保持相對溫和。新舊設備的庫存仍低於目標水平，拖拉機的車隊繼續老化，即使聯合收割機的庫存有所下降。

While it's been difficult working through all the challenges in the post-COVID era, these constraints created an unintended benefit of dampening the amplitude of the equipment cycle for the time being. To quantify that, we are producing roughly 20% to 25% less than the average production volumes of prior replacement periods. As we look ahead to the rest of 2023, we see robust demand with our order books providing excellent visibility through the end of the year.

雖然在後 COVID 時代克服所有挑戰一直很困難，但這些限制產生了一個意想不到的好處，即暫時抑制設備週期的幅度。為了量化這一點，我們的產量比之前更換期的平均產量低了大約 20% 到 25%。展望 2023 年剩餘時間，我們看到需求旺盛，我們的訂單簿在年底前提供了出色的可見性。

Furthermore, we expect the ending inventories in 2023 to be below target levels, making for a very good starting position entering 2024.

此外，我們預計 2023 年的期末庫存將低於目標水平，為進入 2024 年創造一個非常好的起點。

With regards to next year, we'll begin to gain more visibility soon with our early order programs and order books continuing through the summer and fall seasons. As evidence of continued healthy demand levels, we opened Phase 1 of our Sprayer Early Order program in May and are already sold out of our Phase 1 allocation.

關於明年，我們的早期訂單計劃和訂單簿將持續到夏季和秋季，我們很快就會開始獲得更多知名度。作為持續健康需求水平的證據，我們在 5 月份啟動了噴霧器提前訂購計劃的第一階段，並且第一階段的配額已經售罄。

Furthermore, our Sprayer Early Order program included pricing in line with historic averages, pointing to a reversion to normalcy for the industry. Overall, the environment continues to be healthy and supportive of a business cycle with a dampened amplitude.

此外，我們的 Sprayer 提前訂購計劃包括符合歷史平均水平的定價，表明該行業正在回歸常態。總體而言，環境繼續保持健康並支持商業周期，但幅度有所減弱。

Thanks for the commentary and insight, Brent. And before we open the line for other questions, Josh, any final thoughts?

感謝布倫特的評論和見解。在我們打開其他問題之前，Josh，有什麼最後的想法嗎？

Sure. We've had a very strong first half of 2023. This is a testament to the extraordinary efforts of the entire John Deere team. Everyone from our employees, to dealers and suppliers have remained committed to providing customers with the best experience possible.

當然。我們在 2023 年上半年表現非常強勁。這證明了整個約翰迪爾團隊的非凡努力。從我們的員工到經銷商和供應商，每個人都一直致力於為客戶提供最佳體驗。

As we move into the second half of the year, we're encouraged by strong visibility through the remainder of the year. Additionally, while we're seeing improvement in the supply chain, which is helping us to deliver product and solutions for our customers, the situation remains fragile.

隨著我們進入今年下半年，我們對今年剩餘時間的強大可見性感到鼓舞。此外，雖然我們看到供應鏈有所改善，這有助於我們為客戶提供產品和解決方案，但情況仍然脆弱。

Overall, fleet dynamics such as inventory and fleet age and on balance positive fundamentals, put us in a good position to continue to deliver customer value in 2023 and beyond.

總體而言，庫存和機隊年齡等機隊動態以及總體上積極的基本面，使我們處於有利地位，可以在 2023 年及以後繼續為客戶提供價值。

Although it's too early to have a firm view on '24, the fundamentals give us confidence as we move into our Early Order Program selling season.

雖然現在對 24 年有堅定的看法還為時過早，但隨著我們進入早期訂購計劃銷售季節，基本面給了我們信心。

Importantly, we will continue to invest for the long term to unlock value for customers. And as we do this, we remain dedicated to drive further structural profitability for Deere as evidenced across all our segments the last couple of years. This will include new ways to add value and create more resilient, sustainable businesses for our customers and Deere.

重要的是，我們將繼續進行長期投資，為客戶釋放價值。在我們這樣做的同時，我們仍然致力於推動 Deere 進一步的結構性盈利能力，過去幾年我們所有部門都證明了這一點。這將包括為我們的客戶和迪爾增加價值和創造更有彈性、更可持續的業務的新方法。

Thanks, Josh. Now let's open the line for questions from our investors. Brent?

謝謝，喬希。現在讓我們打開投資者提問的熱線。布倫特？

(Operator Instructions) Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）Jamie Cook 與 Crédit Suisse。

Congrats on a nice quarter. I guess, first, with regards to Precision and Production Ag, your sales guide hasn't changed with North America large Ag industry better and pricing up a bit. I understand there's a pull forward, again, higher production than you thought. But to what degree do you want to -- if supply chain improves, do you want to beat your forecast or to some degree, do you want to match the cycle, which bodes well for 2024?

祝賀一個不錯的季度。我想，首先，關於 Precision and Production Ag，你的銷售指南並沒有隨著北美大型 Ag 行業的發展而改變，價格也有所上漲。我知道有一個推動力，再次，比你想像的更高的產量。但是你想要達到什麼程度——如果供應鏈得到改善，你是否想要超過你的預測，或者在某種程度上，你想要匹配週期，這預示著 2024 年是個好兆頭？

And then I just guess my second question on the margin performance of the company. Obviously, it's been fantastic. How much of this do you think is sort of structural versus your margins are over earning just related to the pricing with inflation and supply chain and freight benefits starting to come in.

然後我只是猜測我關於公司利潤率表現的第二個問題。顯然，這太棒了。你認為這其中有多少是結構性的，而你的利潤率超過了收入，這與通貨膨脹、供應鍊和運費收益開始出現的定價有關。

Jamie, thanks for the question. I'll start first on production levels. If you look at all segments, roughly, we'll see kind of similar revenue first half to second half. But for all of the segments, second quarter would be the quarter of highest production for PPA, C&F and SAT.

傑米，謝謝你的提問。我將首先從生產水平開始。如果你看一下所有細分市場，粗略地說，我們會看到上半年和下半年的收入類似。但對於所有細分市場，第二季度將是 PPA、C&F 和 SAT 產量最高的季度。

So as a result, you're going to see a sequential decline anywhere from 10% to 15% in revenue as we go into the third quarter. And I think quarters 3 and 4 will be sort of roughly equal in production levels, and that's true. Broadly speaking, for most of our segments. And the reason and the rationale behind that is really to make sure that we are managing end of year inventory levels really, really well. We're here at the midpoint of the year, we want to make sure that as we exit '23, we set ourself for a really good start into 2024. So that's a little bit of color on sort of the production schedules.

因此，隨著我們進入第三季度，您將看到收入連續下降 10% 至 15%。我認為第 3 季度和第 4 季度的生產水平大致相當，這是事實。從廣義上講，對於我們的大多數細分市場。其背後的原因和基本原理實際上是為了確保我們真正、非常好地管理年終庫存水平。我們在今年的中點來到這裡，我們希望確保在我們退出 23 年時，我們為 2024 年的良好開端做好了準備。所以這對生產計劃有點影響。

And then again, the other thing I would note there, Jamie is, this is really healthy to return to more seasonal patterns in production and to make sure that our schedules match the -- our customers sort of seasonal use of our products. So we were really pleased to be able to execute well in the second quarter.

然後，我要注意的另一件事是，傑米，這真的很健康，可以恢復更多的季節性生產模式，並確保我們的時間表與我們的客戶對我們產品的季節性使用相匹配。所以我們很高興能夠在第二季度表現出色。

Now with respect to structural profitability, I think there's a couple of things at play. First, I would say Deere has been on this journey of structural profitability improvement really for the last 4 years. The centerpiece of that has been our investment in technology, right? And over the years, we've been able to add new solutions, new technologies to our equipment. And all of those have come at margin accretive levels. So we are benefiting from that today in a very structural way, irrespective of where volumes are. That will continue to drive structural improvement for us.

現在關於結構性盈利能力，我認為有幾件事在起作用。首先，我想說 Deere 在過去 4 年裡一直在進行結構性盈利能力改善之旅。其中的核心是我們對技術的投資，對吧？多年來，我們已經能夠為我們的設備添加新的解決方案和新技術。所有這些都達到了利潤增長的水平。因此，我們今天以非常結構化的方式從中受益，無論數量在哪裡。這將繼續推動我們的結構改善。

I think in addition to that, with the launch of the Smart Industrial Strategy in 2020, you saw us drive portfolio improvements. We consolidated all of our tech spend under our CTO organization. And there's still a lot to come, right? We're not done there yet. I think in the areas of life cycle solutions, precision upgrades, solutions as a service, you're going to see continued effort on our part to better -- to improve further our structural profitability.

我認為除此之外，隨著 2020 年智能工業戰略的推出，您看到我們推動了投資組合的改進。我們在 CTO 組織下整合了所有技術支出。還有很多事情要做，對吧？我們還沒有完成。我認為在生命週期解決方案、精確升級、解決方案即服務等領域，你會看到我們不斷努力，以更好地——進一步提高我們的結構性盈利能力。

That said, based on the volumes that we're at today, we are achieving margins and a return on assets commensurate with what we think we should be achieving given the structural profitability of the company at the moment.

也就是說，根據我們今天的數量，我們正在實現的利潤率和資產回報率與我們認為鑑於公司目前的結構性盈利能力應該實現的目標相稱。

Yes, Jamie, it's Josh. One thing I'd add. This -- as Brent mentioned, I think given where we're at in the replacement cycle, we feel like we're performing in line with where we should be. I think importantly, we are seeing significant structural improvements in our businesses across the board. And maybe to highlight one example would be what we've seen in C&F. So we have strategically and maybe a bit methodically over the last few years, been executing on a strategy that is delivering the performance you see today.

是的，傑米，我是喬希。我要補充一件事。這 - 正如布倫特提到的那樣，我認為考慮到我們在更換週期中所處的位置，我們覺得我們的表現符合我們應該達到的水平。我認為重要的是，我們正在全面看到我們業務的重大結構性改進。也許要突出一個例子就是我們在 C&F 中看到的例子。因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們在戰略上，也許有點有條不紊地執行一項戰略，以提供你今天看到的績效。

So that is adding with the acquisition of Wirtgen exposure to road building. It is dissolving our joint venture on excavators to control and own our destiny there in a critical machine form that we have.

因此，隨著收購維特根公司在道路建設領域的曝光度增加。它正在解散我們在挖掘機方面的合資企業，以我們擁有的關鍵機器形式控制和擁有我們在那裡的命運。

On top of that, we have managed the portfolio in terms of exiting certain markets while extending our product portfolio in large production class equipment and on the small end on compact construction. And we've done things like extending distribution on compact construction, which probably doesn't get a lot of fanfare, but extending distribution into our Ag channel which has been tremendously helpful for that business. And that's driven the performance to where we are today.

最重要的是，我們在退出某些市場方面管理了產品組合，同時將我們的產品組合擴展到大型生產級設備和緊湊型結構的小型設備上。我們已經做了一些事情，比如在緊湊型結構上擴展分銷，這可能不會引起很大的轟動，但將分銷擴展到我們的 Ag 渠道，這對該業務非常有幫助。這推動了我們今天的表現。

I think as we look forward, Construction & Forestry will benefit from technology and the ability to bring precision technology to our customers to make them more profitable and more productive I think we'll see that across our other businesses. So that's an example of one business. I think those similar things will carry through to other businesses as well.

我認為，在我們展望未來時，建築和林業將受益於技術以及為我們的客戶帶來精密技術的能力，從而使他們更有利可圖、生產力更高，我認為我們會在其他業務中看到這一點。所以這是一個企業的例子。我認為這些類似的事情也會影響到其他企業。

And on top of that, we will continue to manage costs as we have before thinking about inflationary pressures, how do we route those out and continue to move forward to drive structural profitability for the company.

最重要的是，我們將繼續管理成本，就像我們在考慮通貨膨脹壓力之前所做的那樣，我們如何解決這些問題並繼續前進以推動公司的結構性盈利能力。

Our next caller is Tim Thein with Citigroup.

我們的下一位來電者是花旗集團的 Tim Thein。

Just to come back on large Ag. In terms of the back half and especially the fourth quarter, have your own expectations regarding channel inventory changed from last quarter. It's hard to exactly parse out in terms of, again, this pull forward, but I guess your exit rate in terms of where you expect to exit the year from a channel inventory perspective, again, just relative to the last time we spoke.

只是為了回到大銀。就下半年，尤其是第四季度而言，您對渠道庫存的預期與上一季度相比有所變化。再次，很難準確地分析這種向前推進的情況，但我想你的退出率是從渠道庫存的角度來看你預計今年退出的位置，再次，只是相對於我們上次談話的時間。

Yes. With respect to ending inventory, our forecast for the end of the year actually hasn't changed since our last guidance in the first quarter. I think the only thing that's changed is, again, because of the pull ahead in production in the second quarter. We've seen channel inventories come up a little bit faster than expected. That's a real benefit to our dealers. It's giving them more time to deliver machines to our customers, more time to facilitate used trade-ins. So those are all really positive. And what I'd say is the pull ahead in the second quarter hasn't changed at all our view on end of year.

是的。關於期末庫存，我們對今年年底的預測實際上自我們在第一季度發布的上次指引以來沒有改變。我認為唯一改變的是，再次，因為第二季度的生產提前。我們已經看到渠道庫存的增長速度比預期的要快一點。這對我們的經銷商來說是一個真正的好處。這讓他們有更多時間將機器交付給我們的客戶，有更多時間促進二手交易。所以這些都是非常積極的。我要說的是，第二季度的拉動並沒有改變我們對年底的看法。

And maybe I'll turn things over to Dave Gilmore, who's our Head of Sales and Marketing, and if he had some further commentary on that.

也許我會把事情交給我們的銷售和營銷主管 Dave Gilmore，如果他對此有進一步的評論。

Yes. Thanks, Brent. You said it. The large Ag inventory build seen recently is really due to a return to normal seasonality. And one thing that should be noted relative to the field inventory that's in place right now, a high percentage of that new inventory that's in the field today and reports is retail sold to a customer and a simply pending delivery of that equipment to the retail customer. So we're returning to normal and seasonality, and that's a very good thing for the industry, and it doesn't change our expectation to meet historically low target levels of inventory at the end of the year.

是的。謝謝，布倫特。你說的。最近看到的大量 Ag 庫存實際上是由於回歸正常的季節性。有一點應該注意的是，與現在的現場庫存相關的是，今天在現場的新庫存和報告中有很大一部分是零售給客戶的，並且只是等待將設備交付給零售客戶.所以我們正在恢復正常和季節性，這對行業來說是一件非常好的事情，它不會改變我們在年底達到歷史低目標庫存水平的預期。

And our next caller is Steven Fisher with UBS.

我們的下一位來電者是瑞銀集團的史蒂文費舍爾。

Just to maybe follow up on that inventory question again. I appreciate that it sounds like it's just a return to normal seasonality. And a bit of a pull forward. But also, Brent, I think out of the commentary that you're laser focused on inventories. So I guess, what are the things that you're going to be looking for over the next few months to tell you whether you should still be building channel inventory on large Ag or just producing in line with retail? And then do your kind of Sprayer Early Orders imply a higher, lower or flat production?

只是為了再次跟進該庫存問題。我很欣賞這聽起來像是對正常季節性的回歸。並且有點向前拉。而且，布倫特，我認為從評論中你非常關注庫存。所以我想，在接下來的幾個月裡，你會尋找哪些東西來告訴你，你是否仍然應該在大型 Ag 上建立渠道庫存，或者只是根據零售進行生產？然後，您的噴霧器早期訂單類型是否意味著更高、更低或持平的產量？

Yes. Steve, in terms of the inventory management, the way that our order fulfillment process works, we'll get great visibility into next year as we progress through the summer and fall months. And then as we begin to dimensionalize a view on 2024, we'll have an idea of sort of where ending production rates need to be. I think as of right now, the idea is to maintain discipline until some of those data points come in. The EOP results that we saw for Phase 1 of our Sprayer program was really encouraging. It's hard to do a year-over-year compare.

是的。史蒂夫，就庫存管理而言，我們的訂單履行流程的運作方式，隨著我們在夏季和秋季幾個月的進展，我們將對明年有很好的了解。然後，當我們開始對 2024 年的觀點進行維度化時，我們將對最終生產率需要達到的水平有所了解。我認為，就目前而言，我們的想法是保持紀律，直到其中一些數據點出現。我們在 Sprayer 計劃第一階段看到的 EOP 結果確實令人鼓舞。很難進行年度比較。

Last year, we only ran 1 phase. This year, we are running 2 and the first phase had a ceiling, and it was allocated, we fully met that in a relatively short period of time. So we were pleased with the velocity of that order book. But I would say it's difficult to extrapolate one phase for one product broadly to the rest of the portfolio. What I would say is, as we think about 2024, we do see a return to normalcy for certain dynamics, particularly the supply and demand dynamics of farm equipment should be a little bit more in balance in '24 than what it's been over the last 3 years.

去年，我們只運行了 1 個階段。今年我們跑2，第一階段有上限，分配了，我們在比較短的時間內完全達到了。因此，我們對該訂單簿的速度感到滿意。但我要說的是，很難將一種產品的一個階段廣泛地外推到產品組合的其餘部分。我要說的是，當我們考慮到 2024 年時，我們確實看到某些動態恢復正常，特別是農業設備的供需動態在 24 年應該比過去更加平衡3年。

Quite frankly, that's a healthy dynamic that we want to see return to the market in 2024 and our view on sort of ending production rates and inventories may change a little bit as we further discern data from our order books and EOPs, but we'll wait for that information to come in before we further refine any view of next year.

坦率地說，這是一個健康的動態，我們希望看到 2024 年重返市場，我們對最終生產率和庫存的看法可能會隨著我們進一步從訂單簿和 EOP 中辨別數據而有所改變，但我們會在我們進一步完善明年的任何觀點之前，請等待該信息的出現。

Yes, Steve, it's Josh. Maybe I give you a couple of examples of where we've been monitoring and taking actions. If you look at small tractors in North America, compact utility tractors where you see the industry come off from a retail perspective, obviously, more exposed there to interest rates and the macro environment, we are -- we've seen inventory rise, and we will cut production and they have cut and we'll produce below retail in the back half of the year to try to manage that inventory.

是的，史蒂夫，我是喬希。也許我會給你幾個例子，說明我們一直在監控和採取行動的地方。如果你看看北美的小型拖拉機，緊湊型多功能拖拉機，你會看到該行業從零售的角度來看，顯然，那裡更容易受到利率和宏觀環境的影響，我們 - 我們已經看到庫存增加，並且我們將減產，他們已經減產，我們將在今年下半年生產低於零售價的產品，以試圖管理庫存。

Similar to the comments Dave made in Brazil on small tractors, 5000, 6000 Series tractors in Brazil, where you've seen some slowness in the retail environment because of the lack of financing, we are dialing that back as well.

與 Dave 在巴西對小型拖拉機、5000、6000 系列拖拉機發表的評論類似，由於缺乏融資，您看到零售環境有些放緩，我們也正在回撥。

So I think in a number of places, we will continue to monitor and execute accordingly to manage field inventories. Thanks, Steve.

因此，我認為在許多地方，我們將繼續監控並相應地執行以管理現場庫存。謝謝，史蒂夫。

Our next caller is Matt Elkott with TD Cowen.

我們的下一位來電者是來自 TD Cowen 的 Matt Elkott。

Would love to hear your thoughts -- any thoughts you might have on the emerging El Niño event because the last one has some overlap with the equipment down cycle of the mid- to late teens. I know there were very important reasons for that down cycle like coming off the ethanol expansion as well as trade tariffs but good El Niño on warmer temperatures pose a challenge in the next few years.

很想听聽您的想法——您對正在出現的厄爾尼諾現象的任何想法，因為最後一個事件與青少年中後期的設備停機週期有一些重疊。我知道這個下行週期有一些非常重要的原因，比如乙醇擴張和貿易關稅的結束，但厄爾尼諾現象導致氣溫升高，這在未來幾年構成了挑戰。

On the flip side, as precision technology continues to advance, can adoption actually benefit from external challenges like weather as farmers try to offset with higher yields and productivity.

另一方面，隨著精密技術的不斷進步，農民試圖用更高的產量和生產力來抵消天氣等外部挑戰，採用這些技術實際上可以從中受益。

Yes, Matt. Thanks. Good question. I'll start maybe on the latter part as it relates to Precision Technologies. I mean certainly, as we see more volatility and more uncertainty in our customers' operations, the ability to be -- to get jobs done more quickly, more precisely is hugely beneficial. And we've seen this over the last few years, 2019, a great example, where we had a really wet spring and customers leveraging technologies like ExactEmerge, high-speed planting, getting their crop planted in a matter of days and hours versus traditional weeks. So we think that is really important. We think it's a driver to be able to react to more uncertainty from a weather perspective and be able to deliver not just the same outcomes, but better outcomes as it relates to cost, time and then ultimately on the yield side.

是的，馬特。謝謝。好問題。我可能會從後一部分開始，因為它與 Precision Technologies 相關。我的意思是，當然，當我們看到客戶運營中出現更多波動和更多不確定性時，能夠更快、更準確地完成工作是非常有益的。我們在過去幾年中看到了這一點，2019 年，一個很好的例子，我們有一個非常潮濕的春天，客戶利用 ExactEmerge 等技術，高速種植，在幾天和幾小時內種植他們的作物，而不是傳統的週。所以我們認為這非常重要。我們認為這是一個驅動力，能夠從天氣的角度對更多的不確定性做出反應，並且能夠提供不僅相同的結果，而且在成本、時間和最終收益方面提供更好的結果。

Well, regarding the El Niño side, we still looking at the weather pattern and there might be pointing towards more the end of El Niña and then toward the El Niño. Historically, again, this is still a long way to go here. We have to see if that really happens and how that's going to turn out in the summer. But historically, we will probably see more moisture in North America and some of the dryness in places like Australia or Northern South Africa -- I mean South America. So we're still monitoring that. And in North America, if we really see that El Niño, we might have seen some upside on the yield trend as well. But again, this is still -- we have months to come for to see how that would play out.

好吧，關於厄爾尼諾現象，我們仍在觀察天氣模式，可能指向厄爾尼娜現象的結束，然後指向厄爾尼諾現象。從歷史上看，這裡還有很長的路要走。我們必須看看這是否真的會發生，以及在夏天會發生什麼。但從歷史上看，我們可能會在北美看到更多的水分，而在澳大利亞或南非北部等地——我指的是南美洲——會出現一些乾燥。所以我們仍在監視它。在北美，如果我們真的看到厄爾尼諾現象，我們可能也會看到收益率趨勢的一些上行空間。但同樣，這仍然是——我們還有幾個月的時間來觀察結果如何。

Our next caller is John Joyner with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一位來電者是 BMO Capital Markets 的 John Joyner。

Okay. Somehow seasonal normalization is now negative these days. So with regard to farmer sentiment, Rachel, you correctly highlighted that even though crop prices have moderated and so has the cost side of the equation, but with such a myopic focus on grain prices, do you get a sense of average farmer profitability today versus, say, 6 months ago, a year ago? And whether there is any hesitation creeping in at all around purchasing new equipment.

好的。這些天，季節性標準化現在以某種方式為負。因此，關於農民的情緒，雷切爾，你正確地強調了即使農作物價格有所緩和，等式的成本方面也有所緩和，但由於對糧食價格的短視關注，你是否了解今天農民的平均盈利能力與，比如說，6 個月前，一年前？以及在購買新設備時是否有任何猶豫。

John, with regards to sentiment versus farmer fundamentals, it's interesting, and we see all of the farm sentiment indicators and the barometers out there, and they haven't always matched precisely what we're seeing with the actual fundamentals of the industry. And that's been a phenomenon that's where those 2 have maybe become detached over the last 2 to 3 years. So sometimes it's difficult to use those barometers as a great read for what's really happening with respect to customers' purchase decisions.

約翰，關於情緒與農民基本面的關係，這很有趣，我們看到了所有的農場情緒指標和晴雨表，但它們並不總是與我們所看到的與行業的實際基本面完全匹配。這是一種現象，在過去的 2 到 3 年裡，這兩個人可能變得疏遠了。因此，有時很難使用這些晴雨表來很好地了解客戶購買決策的真實情況。

That said, customers are going to be very profitable this year. And even as we look ahead into next year and start plugging in some of the kind of early WASDE figures, customers are still going to be making good money. And I think you'll still see profitability at levels that are capable of stimulating replacement demand even beyond kind of where we're at today. I don't know, Kanlaya Barr, if you have any further comments on that as well.

也就是說，今年客戶將非常有利可圖。即使我們展望明年並開始插入一些早期的 WASDE 數據，客戶仍然會賺到很多錢。而且我認為你仍然會看到能夠刺激替代需求的水平的盈利能力，甚至超過我們今天所處的水平。我不知道，Kanlaya Barr，你是否對此有任何進一步的評論。

No, no, I agree with that, Brent. I mean if you look at, yes, price is coming down, but it's still the top 3 of the last 10 years. And then we still have good guys on the cost side, cost is coming down as well. So I would think that, yes, we still have pretty good favorable margins for farmers coming into this new crop year.

不，不，我同意，布倫特。我的意思是，如果你看，是的，價格正在下降，但它仍然是過去 10 年的前 3 名。然後我們在成本方面仍然有好人，成本也在下降。所以我認為，是的，對於進入這個新作物年度的農民來說，我們仍然有相當可觀的有利利潤。

The other benefit, we're continuing to see strong used values, which are helpful when we think about trade differentials. That's a really important component to that investment decision, and that is still very supportive. We're still on large Ag overall relatively low levels of inventory.

另一個好處是，我們繼續看到強大的使用價值，這在我們考慮貿易差異時很有幫助。這是該投資決策的一個非常重要的組成部分，而且仍然非常支持。我們仍然處於大型 Ag 整體相對較低的庫存水平。

Our next caller is Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們的下一位來電者是 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

I wonder -- my question is going to be on Small Ag and Turf. And I wonder if you would give a little bit of the state of the market and what you have done as Josh, you did in construction. This is a market where you guys are obviously strong, but not as strong as in Production and Precision. The margins were quite good this quarter. And I'm just curious about what you've done, sustainability, whether price can hold up in that market given somewhat high inventories and less strong fundamentals.

我想知道——我的問題是關於 Small Ag 和 Turf。我想知道你是否願意介紹一下市場狀況以及你作為喬什所做的工作，你在建築方面所做的工作。在這個市場上，你們顯然很強大，但不如生產和精密那麼強大。本季度的利潤率相當不錯。我只是想知道你做了什麼，可持續性，考慮到庫存偏高和基本面不那麼強勁，價格是否能在該市場保持堅挺。

Rob, regarding Small Ag and Turf and some of the structural profitability improvements made to that business, I think it's a segment that's probably flown under the radar screen. One of the things we've learned over the last couple of quarters, it's also a segment that's not always well understood by investors. It's a very diverse portfolio of products that we offer in the Small Ag and Turf segment. About 1/3 of that business goes to really the consumer-oriented products, things like our riding lawn equipment as well as compact utility tractors. But the other 2/3 are sold into the farm economy. And I think that's where you've probably seen some of the most structural improvements over the last 4 years. We've made a lot of the portfolio decisions that we've made over that -- over the last 4 years have been in the Small Ag and Turf business. So we've been very, very discerning and sort of the markets that we play in and the product offerings that we offer to those markets.

Rob，關於 Small Ag 和 Turf 以及該業務的一些結構性盈利能力改進，我認為這是一個可能在雷達屏幕下飛行的部分。我們在過去幾個季度學到的一件事是，這也是一個投資者並不總是很了解的細分市場。這是我們在 Small Ag 和 Turf 領域提供的非常多樣化的產品組合。該業務的大約 1/3 用於真正面向消費者的產品，例如我們的騎行草坪設備以及緊湊型多功能拖拉機。但其他 2/3 被出售給農業經濟。我認為這就是您在過去 4 年中可能看到的一些最結構性改進的地方。我們已經做出了很多我們已經做出的投資組合決定——在過去的 4 年裡，我們一直在小型農業和草坪業務中。因此，我們對我們所參與的市場以及我們向這些市場提供的產品一直非常非常挑剔。

And then I'd also highlight that the majority of our mid-sized tractors that come out of Monheim, Germany, those are being recorded in our small Ag and Turf division. And Europe has been a really important driver there. And we've talked a little bit about this on some of the prior calls, our strategy in Europe has been much more focused over the last 3 years. We've really focused on the high horsepower segment, kind of the 150-plus segment and have a focus that is much more on precision technology I think there's more differentiated products flowing through our Small Ag and Turf division than maybe investors appreciate. That's what's driven a lot of the improvements over the last couple of years. Dave, anything else you'd add to that comment?

然後我還要強調，我們大多數來自德國蒙海姆的中型拖拉機都在我們的小型 Ag 和 Turf 部門進行記錄。歐洲一直是一個非常重要的驅動力。我們在之前的一些電話會議上談過一點，我們在歐洲的戰略在過去 3 年裡更加集中。我們真的專注於高馬力細分市場，有點像 150 多個細分市場，並且更多地關注精密技術我認為流經我們的小型 Ag 和 Turf 部門的差異化產品可能比投資者欣賞的更多。這就是在過去幾年中推動了許多改進的原因。戴夫，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. From a U.S. and Canada perspective, when you referenced the products that we would include in small Ag and Turf, a majority of those products are going to customers, perhaps in Dairy and livestock operations, which, again, in the U.S. and Canada, those customers are generating profits and expected to continue that profit generation into 2024. So that's been a good market for us as our company and our dealers focus on those customers generating income from a Dairy and livestock operation.

是的。從美國和加拿大的角度來看，當你提到我們將包含在小型 Ag 和 Turf 中的產品時，這些產品中的大部分都會賣給客戶，也許是在乳製品和畜牧業，而在美國和加拿大，那些客戶正在產生利潤，並有望將這種利潤產生持續到 2024 年。因此，這對我們來說是一個很好的市場，因為我們的公司和我們的經銷商專注於那些從乳製品和畜牧業經營中獲得收入的客戶。

Rob, it's Josh. One or 2 things I'd add to that, on top of everything that Brent and Dave said, I think this is an area where we have been very focused on the cost structure, in the cost structure of these products and driving that down. And we've been very disciplined on price across the globe, which has been beneficial. And then not unlike the other parts of our business, there's emerging opportunities as it relates to technology and the ability to leverage technology that's been developed in Production and Precision Ag into things like Dairy and livestock like hay and forage that we believe will drive continued value. You think about connectivity and driving connectivity and what that means from a customer support and the ability to better take care of customers. A good example where we see opportunity to not only better serve customers but also create value for the company.

羅伯，是喬希。除了布倫特和戴夫所說的一切之外，我還要補充一兩件事，我認為這是我們一直非常關注成本結構、這些產品的成本結構並降低成本的領域。我們在全球範圍內對價格非常嚴格，這是有益的。然後與我們業務的其他部分一樣，出現了與技術相關的新興機會，以及將生產和精密農業中開發的技術應用到乳製品和牲畜（如乾草和草料）等領域的能力，我們相信這將推動持續價值.您會考慮連通性和驅動連通性，以及這對客戶支持和更好地照顧客戶的能力意味著什麼。一個很好的例子，我們看到機會不僅可以更好地服務客戶，還可以為公司創造價值。

Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

My question is around pricing. So when you guys say that pricing is starting to kind of return to normal, what would you define normal Ag, particularly within Production and Precision Ag. And then second part of the question is just, what are you seeing from a competitive perspective with respect to price?

我的問題是關於定價。因此，當你們說定價開始恢復正常時，您如何定義正常 Ag，特別是在生產和精密 Ag 中。然後問題的第二部分就是，從競爭的角度來看，您對價格有何看法？

Regarding price, maybe there's a couple of different dynamics at play here. Maybe I'll just start kind of with the rest of the year, and you can see this in our guide. We would expect price realization to moderate as we progress through 2023. And that really reflects some of the midyear pricing actions that we took in 2022. We'll anniversary and we'll lap those here in the third quarter, and you'll see pricing moderate, that's effectively implied in our guide, given that in Production and Precision Ag, for example, we achieved 22% in the first quarter, 20% in the second quarter. Our full year guide is 15%. So that implies that 3 in 4Q, we'll see price realization down significantly.

關於價格，這裡可能有幾種不同的動態因素在起作用。也許我只是從今年剩下的時間開始，你會在我們的指南中看到這一點。我們預計，隨著 2023 年的進展，價格實現會有所緩和。這確實反映了我們在 2022 年採取的一些年中定價行動。我們將迎來週年紀念，我們將在第三季度將這些行動放在一起，你會看到定價適中，這在我們的指南中得到了有效暗示，例如，在生產和精密 Ag 中，我們在第一季度實現了 22%，在第二季度實現了 20%。我們的全年指南是 15%。所以這意味著 3 在 4Q，我們將看到價格實現顯著下降。

Now on the flip side there, production costs are also moderating. So we think the delta between the 2 remains relatively static first half to back half of the year.

另一方面，生產成本也在下降。因此，我們認為 2 之間的增量在上半年和下半年保持相對穩定。

Now as it relates to 2024 pricing, we've said all along, our goal was to get back to more normalized levels of price realization. If you look back over sort of the pre-COVID era, that would be anywhere from sort of 2% to 3% for the entire equipment operations. Production and Precision Ag has typically been on the higher end of that range and some of the other divisions on the lower side.

關於 2024 年的定價，我們一直在說，我們的目標是回到更正常的價格實現水平。如果你回顧一下 COVID 之前的時代，整個設備運營的成本在 2% 到 3% 之間。生產和精密 Ag 通常處於該範圍的高端，而其他一些部門則處於較低端。

Right now, we're one of the first manufacturers to have an early order programs extending into 2024. So we do have prices out for those products. We talked about the Sprayer Early Order program, which was filled relatively quickly. The pricing on those Sprayers was depending on the configuration, somewhere in the 2% to 4% range. So right where we would -- right in a range that we would view as normal, which again, we think is healthy for the industry. And then importantly, as we have a conversation about price, we also have to have a conversation about production costs. And based on where we stand today, we continue to see further moderation in production costs and line of sight to 2024 appears as though that will stabilize a bit for us then.

目前，我們是首批將早期訂購計劃延長至 2024 年的製造商之一。因此我們確實對這些產品進行了定價。我們談到了 Sprayer Early Order 計劃，該計劃很快就被填滿了。這些噴霧器的定價取決於配置，大約在 2% 到 4% 的範圍內。所以就在我們認為的範圍內——就在我們認為正常的範圍內，我們認為這對行業來說是健康的。然後重要的是，當我們討論價格時，我們還必須討論生產成本。根據我們今天的立場，我們繼續看到生產成本進一步下降，到 2024 年的視線似乎會在那時對我們來說有所穩定。

Our next caller is Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

我們的下一位來電者是摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

So following up on the last answer to [SP] just to make sure the first phase of the early order program that's all allocated now. Which quarter does it extend to for 2024? And also, last year, you said you didn't do it in 2 phases. So this year is different versus last year?

因此，跟進 [SP] 的最後一個答案只是為了確保現在所有分配的早期訂購計劃的第一階段。 2024 年將延長到哪個季度？而且，去年，你說你沒有分兩個階段進行。那麼今年和去年有什麼不同嗎？

Yes, that's right. So typically, historically, we have run 2 maybe even 3 phases for early order programs. Last year, the supply and demand dynamics for Sprayers and Planters were still out of balance that we only had to run one phase. Again, as we return to more seasonal patterns and more balance in the supply and demand dynamics for farm equipment, we're going to try to mimic what we've done in historic early order programs. So this year, we're going to run 2. Typically, we source about 90% of model year 2024 planters and sprayers through the early order program. So these programs are really important for us as we think about production for next year. Dave, do you want to talk about the second part of that question there regarding the shift and phases?

恩，那就對了。因此，通常情況下，從歷史上看，我們已經為早期訂購程序運行了 2 個甚至 3 個階段。去年，噴霧機和播種機的供需動態仍然失衡，我們只需要運行一個階段。同樣，隨著我們回歸更多的季節性模式和農業設備供需動態的更多平衡，我們將嘗試模仿我們在歷史性早期訂單計劃中所做的事情。所以今年，我們將運行 2。通常，我們通過早期訂購計劃採購大約 90% 的 2024 年款花盆和噴霧器。因此，在我們考慮明年的生產時，這些計劃對我們來說非常重要。戴夫，你想談談關於轉變和階段的問題的第二部分嗎？

Yes. And I might also add in addition to ordering products from our factories, the whole goods, this year as well, we have a precision upgrade portion of our early order program that allows a customer that purchased a piece of equipment earlier to upgrade to the most recent John Deere technology that allows them to unlock agronomic, economic and environmental value.

是的。我可能還會補充說，除了從我們的工廠訂購產品，整個商品，今年我們還有我們早期訂購計劃的精確升級部分，允許較早購買一台設備的客戶升級到最John Deere 的最新技術，使他們能夠釋放農藝、經濟和環境價值。

So that's another change and improvement to the early order program that Brent referenced. And ultimately, what we're intending to do with those EOPs is getting early indicator of production schedule so that we can build those and get them in the hands of customers prior to their use season. So we'll be taking orders now that will be delivered throughout 2024.

所以這是對布倫特提到的提前訂購計劃的另一個改變和改進。最終，我們打算對這些 EOP 做的是獲得生產計劃的早期指標，以便我們可以構建它們並在客戶使用季節之前將它們交付給客戶。因此，我們現在將接受將在 2024 年全年交付的訂單。

Yes, this is Josh. Maybe one follow-up to Nicole's question on price. We talked about normalizing price, and that's purely inflationary price. So historically 2% to 3%. And what we have seen though, on top of that is another 3% to 4% of price that comes through additional features, which is effectively is, you can think about more technology, and we don't see that trend changing much and all if anything potentially accelerating as we drive more features and more opportunity to create more value for customers and drive very, very quick ROI for those investments as they reduce cost and improve yield. So just an add to Nicole's question on price.

是的，這是喬希。也許是妮可關於價格的問題的後續行動。我們談到了價格正常化，這純粹是通貨膨脹價格。所以從歷史上看是 2% 到 3%。而我們所看到的是，除此之外，附加功能帶來了另外 3% 到 4% 的價格，這實際上是，您可以考慮更多技術，而且我們認為這種趨勢不會發生太大變化隨著我們推動更多功能和更多機會為客戶創造更多價值並為這些投資帶來非常非常快的投資回報率，因為它們降低了成本並提高了收益，如果有什麼可能會加速的話。因此，只需添加 Nicole 關於價格的問題。

The next caller is Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.

下一個來電者是奧本海默的克里斯汀歐文。

I wanted to ask about Construction & Forestry. You did mention that the order books there were virtually full for the year. Can you just help us understand the mix there? And then I believe you said inventories were still quite tight. I just wanted to clarify, was that an industry statement or a Deere statement? And I'll leave it there.

我想問一下建築與林業。你確實提到那裡的訂單簿全年幾乎都滿了。你能幫我們了解那裡的混合情況嗎？然後我相信你說過庫存仍然很緊張。我只是想澄清一下，這是行業聲明還是迪爾聲明？我會把它留在那裡。

Yes. Thanks, Kristen, for the question. Regarding C&F, you're correct. If we look at order books, we are almost full for the year. We're certainly full in the U.S. and Canada. The one market that we still have more work to do would be Brazil. That's a market that has really weakened over the first half of the year, and we're monitoring really closely in the back half of the year. And we have seen inventories rise a little bit as retails have suffered here in the last quarter. I think it's a combination of a little bit of political uncertainty earlier in the year, higher interest rates have put a little bit of a downward pressure on that market for us. So that's really the one call out I would have for sort of the rest of 2023.

是的。克里斯汀，謝謝你提出這個問題。關於C&F，你是對的。如果我們查看訂單簿，我們一年幾乎都滿了。我們在美國和加拿大肯定吃飽了。我們還有更多工作要做的一個市場是巴西。這是一個在今年上半年真正走弱的市場，我們在下半年密切關注。我們看到庫存略有上升，因為上個季度這裡的零售業遭受重創。我認為這是今年早些時候政治不確定性的結合，更高的利率給我們的市場帶來了一點下行壓力。所以這真的是我在 2023 年剩餘時間裡會發出的呼籲。

Now as it relates to inventory, our comments on the call have all been Deere specific inventory. Similar to large Ag, we've seen a little bit of an increase here in season, but that's all commensurate with our production levels that we had in the second quarter. And our ending inventory forecast right now still shows us running really, really lean at the end of the year. So we're going to continue to manage that really tightly as we exit 2023 and create our starting point end of '24.

現在涉及到庫存，我們對電話的評論都是迪爾的特定庫存。與大型 Ag 類似，我們在本季看到了一點點增長，但這與我們第二季度的生產水平相稱。我們現在的期末庫存預測仍然顯示我們在年底運行得非常、非常精簡。因此，在我們退出 2023 年並創建 24 年的起點時，我們將繼續嚴格管理這一點。

Kristen, it's Josh. Maybe one thing to add to that. From an order perspective, in North America, we're taking orders into the first quarter of '24. So we're continuing to see strength there. Contractors for the first time in their careers continue -- are turning down jobs because of lack of labor. So I think the desire for more technology, the ability to do jobs in an easier, more simple manner is desirable. So we see a lot of opportunity there to continue.

克里斯汀，是喬希。也許要補充一件事。從訂單的角度來看，在北美，我們正在接受 24 年第一季度的訂單。所以我們繼續看到那裡的力量。承包商在他們的職業生涯中第一次繼續 - 由於缺乏勞動力而拒絕工作。所以我認為對更多技術的渴望，以及以更輕鬆、更簡單的方式完成工作的能力是可取的。所以我們看到了很多繼續下去的機會。

Our last caller is Stanley Elliott with Stifel.

最後一位來電者是 Stifel 的 Stanley Elliott。

Quick question. Can you guys talk about kind of the share repurchase expectation in the back half of the year, you're tracking 2x ahead of last year and free cash flow is accelerating.

快速提問。你們能談談今年下半年的股票回購預期嗎？你們比去年提前了 2 倍，自由現金流正在加速。

Stanley, it's Josh. I appreciate the question. I think we're seeing here the benefit of our business model and executing the strategy in terms of really strong cash generation. And clearly, with our full year guide, we see that continuing. So we did about $1.3 billion here this quarter. We don't provide a forecast there, but I think it is fair to assume we would continue at a similar pace through the year.

斯坦利，是喬希。我很欣賞這個問題。我認為我們在這裡看到了我們的商業模式的好處，並在真正強大的現金產生方面執行了該戰略。很明顯，根據我們的全年指南，我們看到這種情況仍在繼續。所以我們本季度在這裡做了大約 13 億美元。我們沒有在那裡提供預測，但我認為可以公平地假設我們將在今年繼續以類似的速度發展。

Thanks, Stanley. That concludes today's call. We appreciate everyone's time, and thanks for joining us today.

謝謝，斯坦利。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝大家的寶貴時間，感謝您今天加入我們。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may go ahead and disconnect at this time.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以繼續並斷開連接。