Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Q4 2023 Analyst Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) The conference will be recorded. (Operator Instructions) It will be my pleasure to turn the conference over to Iona. Go ahead.

早安，下午好，女士們先生們。歡迎參加 2023 年第四季分析師電話會議。 （操作員指示）會議將被錄音。 （操作員說明）我很高興將會議交給 Iona。前進。

Thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2023 Preliminary Results Call. As usual, our Chief Executive Officer, Christian Sewing, will speak first; followed by our Chief Financial Officer, James von Moltke. The presentation, as always, is available to download in the Investor Relations section of our website, db.com. Before we get started, let me just remind you that the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which may not develop as we currently expect. We therefore ask you to take notice of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials.

感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第四季和全年初步業績電話會議。像往常一樣，我們的執行長 Christian Sewing 將首先發言；其次是我們的財務長 James von Moltke。與往常一樣，該簡報可在我們網站 db.com 的投資者關係部分下載。在我們開始之前，讓我提醒您，該簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能不會像我們目前預期的那樣發展。因此，我們要求您注意我們材料末尾的預防性警告。

With that, let me hand over to Christian.

接下來，讓我把時間交給克里斯蒂安。

Thank you, Ioana, and a warm welcome from me. It's a pleasure to be discussing our results with you today. We have set Deutsche Bank's course for sustainable growth and returns for shareholders through our Global Hausbank strategy and 2023 saw clear progress. We delivered business growth as the benefits of our sharpened business model came through. We grew revenues to around EUR 29 billion with a growth rate of close to 7% per year since 2021, well above our initial target and we are now raising our revenue growth target to 5.5% to 6.5% with the aim of reaching revenues of around EUR 32 billion by 2025.

謝謝你，艾歐娜，以及我的熱情歡迎。很高興今天與您討論我們的結果。我們透過全球 Hausbank 策略為德意志銀行設定了可持續成長和股東回報的路線，並在 2023 年取得了明顯進展。隨著我們銳化的業務模式的好處顯現出來，我們實現了業務成長。我們的營收成長至約 290 億歐元，自 2021 年以來每年成長率接近 7%，遠高於我們最初的目標，我們現在將營收成長目標提高至 5.5% 至 6.5%，目標是實現約到2025 年將達到320 億歐元。

We made conscious investment decisions to protect and grow our franchise by driving business growth, strengthening controls and improving operational efficiency. We have now reached an inflection point on cost. (inaudible)(inaudible) (inaudible) investments are approaching completion, and we are making solid progress on our efficiency program. As a result, we now see ourselves delivering normalized operating and financial performance. This reinforces our confidence that we will deliver on our target run rate of around EUR 5 billion per quarter for adjusted costs, including the first quarter of this year.

我們做出明智的投資決策，透過推動業務成長、加強控制和提高營運效率來保護和發展我們的特許經營權。我們現在已經到達了成本的轉折點。 （聽不清楚）（聽不清楚）（聽不清楚）投資即將完成，我們的效率計畫正在取得紮實進展。因此，我們現在看到自己正在實現正常化的營運和財務表現。這增強了我們的信心，我們將實現調整後成本每季約 50 億歐元的目標運行率，包括今年第一季。

Our guidance for the full year 2025 noninterest rate expenses remains unchanged at around EUR 20 billion. We again demonstrated our resilience with high-quality risk management and our strong capital and balance sheet. All of this leaves us highly confident that we will meet our 2025 financial targets. Furthermore, we are increasing our capital distributions as rewarding our shareholders is our priority. We increased both dividends and share buybacks by 50% compared to 2022.

我們對 2025 年全年非利率支出的指引保持在 200 億歐元左右不變。我們透過高品質的風險管理以及強大的資本和資產負債表再次證明了我們的韌性。所有這些都讓我們對實現 2025 年財務目標充滿信心。此外，我們正在增加資本分配，因為回報股東是我們的首要任務。與 2022 年相比，我們將股利和股票回購增加了 50%。

We plan to propose a dividend of EUR 0.45 per share at the AGM, approximately EUR 900 million in total for the financial year 2023. And we have regulatory approval for a further EUR 675 million in share buybacks which we intend to complete in the first half of 2024. And our raised capital outlook, which we outlined last quarter has created scope to accelerate and expand distributions further. We now expect to significantly outperform our original EUR 8 billion target for the financial years 2021 through 2025. And we would consider proposing a dividend of EUR 1 per share in respect of 2025, subject to our 50% payout ratio.

我們計劃在年度股東大會上提議派發每股 0.45 歐元的股息，2023 財年股息總額約為 9 億歐元。我們上季概述的募集資金前景為進一步加速和擴大分配創造了空間。現在，我們預計 2021 年至 2025 財年的股息將大幅超出我們最初的 80 億歐元目標。

Let's first discuss business growth starting with our 2023 revenue performance on Slide 2.

我們先從投影片 2 上的 2023 年營收表現開始討論業務成長。

We delivered sustained growth and improved quality of earning streams with a well-balanced business mix. Revenues were in line with our guidance at around EUR 29 billion, up 6% year-on-year. 78% of our revenues came from recurring earnings streams up from 71% in 2020. We benefited from rising interest rates, notably in the Corporate Bank and Private Bank. We also focused on building out our fee business across all businesses. And here, let me give you a few examples. In the Corporate Bank, we developed innovative products hired relationship managers in strategic areas and deepened relationships with key clients.

我們透過均衡的業務組合實現了持續成長並提高了收入來源的品質。營收約 290 億歐元，年增 6%，符合我們的指引。我們 78% 的收入來自經常性收益流，高於 2020 年的 71%。我們也專注於在所有業務中建立我們的收費業務。在這裡，我給大家舉幾個例子。在企業銀行，我們開發了創新產品，在策略領域聘請了客戶關係經理，並加深了與主要客戶的關係。

This was already evidenced by the growth in fee income in the fourth quarter. We also added senior bankers and client-facing areas in International Private Bank and the Investment Bank and completed the acquisition of Numis. We attracted net inflows of EUR 57 billion across the Private Bank and Asset Management, which helped to grow assets under management by EUR 115 billion to EUR 1.5 trillion. Our progress in strengthening our franchise has been recognized with upgrades from the leading rating agencies, which further positions us well to deepen engagement with current and new clients.

第四季費用收入的成長已經證明了這一點。我們還在國際私人銀行和投資銀行增加了高級銀行家和客戶導向的領域，並完成了對 Numis 的收購。我們透過私人銀行和資產管理吸引了 570 億歐元的淨流入，這有助於將管理資產增加 1,150 億歐元，達到 1.5 兆歐元。我們在加強特許經營方面取得的進展得到了領先評級機構的升級認可，這進一步使我們能夠加深與現有和新客戶的接觸。

Now let's look ahead at our revenue pathway to 2025 on Slide 3. Since 2021, we have demonstrated revenue momentum well ahead of our original target growth rate due in part to a supportive interest rate environment. We are confident that as interest rates normalize, we can maintain a solid revenue trajectory. And this is supported by the expected growth in noninterest rate income which already accounts for more than half of group revenues and our investments in capital-light activities. Based on this, we are raising our revenue target from between 3.5% and 4.5% to between 5.5% and 6.5% for the period 2021 through 2025 and aiming to reach around EUR 32 billion in 2025.

現在，讓我們在投影片 3 上展望 2025 年的營收路徑。我們相信，隨著利率正常化，我們能夠維持穩健的收入軌跡。這得到了非利率收入預期成長的支持，該收入已佔集團收入的一半以上以及我們對輕資本活動的投資。基於此，我們將 2021 年至 2025 年期間的營收目標從 3.5% 至 4.5% 提高至 5.5% 至 6.5%，併計劃在 2025 年達到 320 億歐元左右。

We expect noninterest income growth to contribute approximately 2.5 percentage points to the targeted compound annual growth between 2021 and 2025. And this is achievable through a number of levers: growing share of wallet in the Corporate Bank, reaping the benefits of investments in Origination & Advisory, building on our recent strong relative performance in our FIC business, expanding fee-generating businesses in the Private Bank, benefiting from investments and growing capital-light lending businesses, delivering on our growth strategies, including passive and taking full advantage of market recovery in asset management. Additionally, across both the Private Bank and Asset Management, we aim to convert 2023's net inflows and growth in assets under management into revenues.

我們預計非利息收入成長將為 2021 年至 2025 年間的目標複合年增長率貢獻約 2.5 個百分點。以我們最近在固定存款業務方面的相對強勁表現為基礎，擴大私人銀行的收費業務，受益於投資和不斷增長的輕資本貸款業務，實現我們的增長戰略，包括被動和充分利用市場復甦的機會資產管理。此外，在私人銀行和資產管理領域，我們的目標是將 2023 年的淨流入和管理資產的成長轉化為收入。

In respect of net interest income growth, we expect it to contribute approximately 4 percentage points to the targeted compound annual growth between 2021 and 2025. This reflects the normalization in 2024, followed by further growth in 2025 and beyond, and James will expand on this shortly.

在淨利息收入成長方面，我們預計它將為2021年至2025年的目標複合年增長率貢獻約4個百分點。在此基礎上展開闡述不久。

Let me now take you through additional details on how we plan to grow noninterest rate revenues on Slide 4. In the Corporate Bank, we already have stable sources of fee income from our payment business, trade finance offering, custody business as well as trust and agency services. We have invested into our payment platforms and enhancing sector-specific coverage teams. In terms of products, we also continue our investment into fee-generating merchant solutions and digital asset custody to support future fee growth. We are accelerating the cross-divisional solution offering. For example, foreign exchange, hedging and risk management products, and we are helping corporates with their sustainability transition.

現在讓我在投影片 4 上向您詳細介紹我們計劃如何增加非利率收入。代理服務。我們投資了我們的支付平台並增強了特定行業的覆蓋團隊。在產品方面，我們也持續投資於收費商家解決方案和數位資產託管，以支援未來的費用成長。我們正在加速提供跨部門的解決方案。例如外匯、對沖和風險管理產品，我們正在幫助企業進行永續轉型。

In the Investment Bank, we have 1 of the leading FIC platforms with around 35% of revenues coming from our financing business. We have consistently said that we aim to grow financing and FIC trading activities by developing the existing business growing our Americas footprint and increasing client penetration.

在投資銀行方面，我們擁有領先的 FIC 平台之一，約 35% 的收入來自我們的融資業務。我們一直表示，我們的目標是透過發展現有業務、擴大我們在美洲的足跡並提高客戶滲透率來發展融資和 FIC 交易活動。

In O&A, revenues saw a low point in 2022. We expect fees to be driven this year and next by some market recovery, combined with the benefits of our investments. We hired strategically across many sectors and acquired Numis to create a leading position in the U.K. All this will help us to deepen and broaden our client relationships and further develop our ESG capabilities.

在 O&A 領域，營收在 2022 年出現低點。我們在多個領域進行了策略性招聘，並收購了 Numis，以建立在英國的領先地位。

In the Private Bank, we aim to grow revenues from investment products at around 10% per year over the next years. We are confident we can achieve this, given our strong asset generation investments in hiring in the international franchise and enhancement of digital channels. We will also expand our Lombard lending business in Wealth Management and the Bank for Entrepreneurs. In addition to our focus on Germany, we are intensifying our business development in growing markets such as Asia and the Middle East.

在私人銀行，我們的目標是未來幾年投資產品收入每年成長 10% 左右。鑑於我們在國際特許經營招聘和數位管道增強方面的強大資產生成投資，我們有信心能夠實現這一目標。我們還將擴大財富管理和企業家銀行的倫巴第貸款業務。除了專注於德國之外，我們還在亞洲和中東等不斷增長的市場加強業務發展。

In Asset Management, to give you a few examples on our growth initiatives. We are building on Xtrackers momentum via product innovation, and we are expanding internationally. Within Alternatives, we want to focus on credit in Europe and real estate debt in the U.S., and we will be strengthening fixed income and multi-asset capabilities to increase potential for scaling up. And I'm encouraged by the start we have had in January so far, with revenue performance that supports this trajectory.

在資產管理方面，為您提供一些有關我們成長計劃的範例。我們正在透過產品創新增強 Xtrackers 的發展勢頭，並且正在國際化擴張。在另類投資領域，我們希望專注於歐洲的信貸和美國的房地產債務，我們將加強固定收益和多資產能力，以增加擴大規模的潛力。我對一月份迄今為止的開局感到鼓舞，收入表現支持了這一軌跡。

Now let me turn to operating efficiency on Slide 5. Our 2023 cost base was impacted by inflation, business growth and investments to accelerate execution of our Global Hausbank strategy on 3 dimensions: improving operational efficiency, growing sustainable revenues and strengthening our control environment. About EUR 400 million of these additional investments are nonrecurring and mainly related to improvement of our operational efficiency, severance charges for targeted reductions in senior non-client-facing roles and real estate one-offs.

現在讓我談談幻燈片5 上的營運效率。持續收入和加強我們的控制環境。這些額外投資中約 4 億歐元是非經常性投資，主要與提高我們的營運效率、定向減少非面向客戶的高階職位的遣散費以及房地產一次性投資有關。

We also recognized an impairment of goodwill related to Numis. Some of these nonrecurring items arose in the fourth quarter, alongside other exceptional items, which James will discuss shortly. We also made business investments of EUR 200 million which will remain in our run rate. We saw incremental savings of around EUR 340 million from our operational efficiency measures this year. These will more than offset the run rate impact of the investments, which reflects our approach of self-funding our investments.

我們也確認了與 Numis 相關的商譽減損。其中一些非經常性項目以及其他特殊項目出現在第四季度，詹姆斯很快就會討論這些項目。我們還進行了 2 億歐元的商業投資，該投資將保持在我們的運行率內。今年，我們透過營運效率措施節省了約 3.4 億歐元的增量成本。這些將足以抵銷投資對營運率的影響，這反映了我們自籌資金的投資方式。

On business growth, we have invested in capital-light businesses as we just discussed. On controls, we further strengthened key functions with the addition of around 1,000 dedicated professionals across all regions to ensure a thought leadership and increased dedicated spending to around EUR 1.2 billion in 2023.

在業務成長方面，我們剛剛討論了對輕資本業務的投資。在控制方面，我們在所有地區增加了約 1,000 名專職專業人員，進一步強化了關鍵職能，以確保思想領導力，並在 2023 年將專門支出增加到約 12 億歐元。

Our investments over the years have materially improved our controls. For example, we have built automated tools into our KYC controls to dynamically review client activity and tightened quality control standards. We have significantly upgraded our core control applications. For example, we successfully migrated our Euro clearing business onto a new strategic transaction monitoring platform. We made material strides in re-engineering processes front to back, and the progress so far has made our bank safer.

我們多年來的投資極大地改善了我們的控制。例如，我們在 KYC 控制中內建了自動化工具，以動態審查客戶活動並收緊品質控制標準。我們顯著升級了核心控制應用程式。例如，我們成功地將歐元清算業務遷移到新的策略交易監控平台。我們在從頭到尾的重新設計流程方面取得了實質進展，迄今為止的進展使我們的銀行更加安全。

As our remediation work across key regulatory programs is anticipated to approach completion, we expect our focus during 2024 to gradually shift from remediation to a sustainable "business as usual" risk management. We also continued to put longstanding legal matters behind us in 2023 and we expect to see the benefits of our improved operating model coming through from 2024. We believe these investments will positively impact operating leverage by boosting revenue growth while keeping costs essentially stable to 2022 levels, as we set out on slide 6.

由於我們跨關鍵監管計劃的補救工作預計即將完成，我們預計 2024 年我們的重點將逐漸從補救轉向可持續的「一切照舊」風險管理。我們也繼續在2023 年將長期存在的法律問題拋諸腦後，預計從2024 年起我們將看到改進後的營運模式帶來的好處。在2022 年的水平，從而對營運槓桿產生積極影響，正如我們在投影片 6 中闡述的那樣。

We see a clear path to cost of approximately EUR 20 billion in 2025. Over the next 2 years, our aim is to drive reductions across both nonoperating costs and our adjusted cost base by managing our run rate and driving efficiency measures. We foresee reductions in nonoperating costs of around EUR 700 million from 2023 levels in the next 2 years. The EUR 233 million impairment of goodwill relating to Numis is now behind us. And we see restructuring and severance charges coming down by around EUR 400 million from 2023 levels.

我們預計到 2025 年，成本將達到約 200 億歐元。我們預計未來 2 年內非營運成本將比 2023 年的水準減少約 7 億歐元。與 Numis 相關的 2.33 億歐元商譽減損現已成為過去。我們預計重組和遣散費用將比 2023 年的水準減少約 4 億歐元。

On adjusted costs, as we have already communicated, we see bank levies coming down by between EUR 350 million and EUR 400 million over the next 2 years. The additional EUR 400 million net reduction will come from further progress on our operational efficiency program. So let me give you some additional detail on where we stand with our EUR 2.5 billion efficiency measures.

關於調整後的成本，正如我們已經傳達的那樣，我們預計未來兩年銀行稅將減少 3.5 億至 4 億歐元。額外的 4 億歐元淨減少額將來自我們營運效率計畫的進一步進展。因此，讓我向您提供一些關於我們 25 億歐元效率措施的進展的更多細節。

We have already executed on measures we delivered our expected savings of EUR 1.3 billion, of which around EUR 900 million of savings were realized today. The residual savings of EUR 1.6 billion are as follows: On Germany optimization, we anticipate savings of around EUR 600 million reflecting our strategic ambition to increase profitability in our core home market. On technology and infrastructure, we anticipate roughly EUR 700 million of savings from a number of items, including application decommissioning and other operating model improvements.

我們已經執行了預期節省 13 億歐元的措施，其中今天已實現約 9 億歐元的節省。剩餘的 16 億歐元節省如下： 在德國優化方面，我們預計節省約 6 億歐元，反映了我們提高核心國內市場盈利能力的戰略雄心。在技​​術和基礎設施方面，我們預計透過多項專案可節省約 7 億歐元，包括應用程式退役和其他營運模式改進。

And finally, on front-to-back process re-design, we anticipate about EUR 300 million from simplified workflows and automation. Included in these measures is the reduction of 3,500 roles, mainly in non-client-facing areas. The vast majority of these measures will be in our 2025 run rate. With that, we have material capacity to more than offset inflation and the impact from our business growth plans.

最後，在從前到後的流程重新設計方面，我們預計簡化的工作流程和自動化將帶來約 3 億歐元的收入。這些措施包括減少 3,500 個職位，主要是在非面向客戶的領域。這些措施中的絕大多數將在我們 2025 年的運行率中實施。這樣，我們就有足夠的物質能力來抵銷通貨膨脹和業務成長計畫的影響。

Our detailed implementation roadmap gives us the confidence in delivering noninterest expenses of approximately EUR 20 billion in 2025 and giving us a clear pathway to our cost-income ratio target of 62.5%. We are conscious that we are operating in a fast-changing environment. Our path towards 2025 may be impacted by external factors, and we have taken this into account. We have the toolkit in place to implement additional measures which would enable us to further flex our cost base to meet our cost-income ratio target even if we see unforeseen revenue headwinds.

我們詳細的實施路線圖使我們有信心在 2025 年實現約 200 億歐元的非利息支出，並為我們實現 62.5% 的成本收入比目標提供了明確的途徑。我們意識到我們正在一個快速變化的環境中運作。我們邁向2025年的道路可能會受到外部因素的影響，我們已經考慮到了這一點。我們擁有適當的工具包來實施額外的措施，這將使我們能夠進一步調整我們的成本基礎，以實現我們的成本收入比目標，即使我們看到不可預見的收入阻力。

Now let me turn to capital liquidity and risk management on Slide 7. In 2023, we proved our resilience in a challenging environment. We demonstrated first-class risk management with a high-quality and well-diversified loan book supported by multiple risk mitigants. Our provision for credit losses was 31 basis points of average loans marginally above guidance range and also reflecting overlay changes applied in the fourth quarter. Liquidity has remained very robust and with substantial buffers above required levels.

現在讓我談談投影片 7 上的資本流動性和風險管理。我們透過高品質、多元化的貸款帳簿和多種風險緩解措施，展現了一流的風險管理水準。我們的信用損失準備金為平均貸款的 31 個基點，略高於指引範圍，也反映了第四季應用的疊加變化。流動性仍然非常強勁，並且有大量緩衝高於要求的水平。

In addition, our balance sheet is strong. We have a large and healthy diversified deposit base, mainly in our domestic market. Furthermore, we demonstrated strong capital management. We ended the year with a robust CET1 ratio at 13.7%.

此外，我們的資產負債表強勁。我們擁有龐大且健康的多元化存款基礎，主要是在國內市場。此外，我們也展現了強大的資本管理能力。年底，我們的 CET1 比率達到 13.7%。

Now let me turn to our plans for distributions to shareholders on Slide 8. Our strong organic capital generation and disciplined capital management allowed us both to digest the significant regulatory inflation of the last 2 years and support our business growth while still being in a position to distribute around 30% of our net income to shareholders. Consistent with prior guidance, we now see scope to shift gears on capital distributions and to increase shareholder distributions to 50% of net income to shareholders from the full year 2024. In October, we set out plans to accelerate and expand our distributions, having raised our capital outlook by around EUR 3 billion through 2025. With the distributions announced today and our positive capital outlook, we are on track to significantly outperform against our original distribution target.

現在讓我談談我們在幻燈片 8 上向股東分配的計劃。大約30% 的淨利潤分配給股東。根據先前的指導，我們現在看到了調整資本分配方式的空間，並從 2024 年全年開始將股東分配增加到股東淨利潤的 50%。年，我們的資本前景將增加約30 億歐元。

Let me conclude with a few words on our strategy on Slide 9. We have seen rising uncertainties in the global economy and across geopolitical landscape since we launched our Global Hausbank strategy early in 2022. These developments prove that our strategy is the right 1 for our clients and for Deutsche Bank. We have seen more than ever that clients want and need to partner with the expertise, product breadth and global network to help them navigate a more uncertain environment, a European partner capable of helping and advising them across the world. The progress we have made on all key dimensions gives us a clear path to our 2025 targets.

讓我用幾句話來總結投影片9 中我們的策略。我們來說是正確的。我們比以往任何時候都更清楚地看到，客戶希望並需要與擁有專業知識、產品廣度和全球網絡的合作夥伴合作，幫助他們應對更加不確定的環境，而歐洲合作夥伴能夠在世界各地為他們提供幫助和建議。我們在所有關鍵方面取得的進展為我們實現 2025 年目標指明了道路。

Having sharpened our business model, we have raised our revenue targets and made focused investments to boost revenues further especially all in capital-light businesses, and we are seizing the opportunities offered by our technology investments to expand our digital offering to clients. We've already completed operational efficiency measures, which take us around halfway towards our EUR 2.5 billion target, and we are well positioned to increase our goals for capital distributions to shareholders through 2025.

在完善我們的業務模式後，我們提高了收入目標並進行了集中投資，以進一步提高收入，特別是在所有輕資本業務中，並且我們正在抓住技術投資提供的機會，擴大我們向客戶提供的數位產品。我們已經完成了營運效率措施，這使我們實現 25 億歐元目標的一半左右，並且我們已做好充分準備，可以在 2025 年之前提高股東資本分配的目標。

With that, let me hand over to James.

接下來，讓我把任務交給詹姆斯。

Thank you, Christian. Let me start with a few key performance indicators on Slide 11 and place them in the context of our 2025 targets. Christian outlined our business momentum and well balanced revenue mix, which resulted in revenue growth of 6.6% on a compound basis for the last 2 years relative to 2021. This performance puts us well on track to deliver revenue growth in line with our new target. Our strong franchise growth led to a 10 percentage point improvement in the cost/income ratio to 75% against 2021 with the last 2 years being pivotal investment years. Our return on tangible equity was 7.4% in the full year of 2023, including a benefit from deferred tax asset valuation. Our capital position remains strong with the CET1 ratio at 13.7% at year-end after absorbing regulatory headwinds. Our liquidity metrics also remained strong. LCR was 140% and above our target of around 130% and net stable funding ratio was 122%. In short, our performance in the period reaffirms our resilience and our confidence in reaching our 2025 targets.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂安。讓我從投影片 11 中的一些關鍵績效指標開始，並將它們置於我們 2025 年目標的背景下。 Christian 概述了我們的業務動能和均衡的收入組合，這使得過去 2 年的收入相對 2021 年複合增長了 6.6%。我們強勁的特許經營成長導致成本/收入比比 2021 年提高 10 個百分點，達到 75%，過去兩年是關鍵的投資年份。 2023 年全年，我們的有形股本回報率為 7.4%，其中包括遞延稅資產估值帶來的收益。在吸收監理阻力後，我們的資本狀況依然強勁，年底 CET1 比率為 13.7%。我們的流動性指標也保持強勁。 LCR 為 140%，高於我們約 130% 的目標，淨穩定資金比率為 122%。簡而言之，我們在這段期間的表現再次證明了我們的韌性和實現 2025 年目標的信心。

With that, let me turn to the fourth quarter highlights on Slide 12. Group revenues were EUR 6.7 billion, up 5% on the fourth quarter of 2022 or 10%, excluding specific items. Noninterest expenses were EUR 5.5 billion, up 5% year-on-year. Nonoperating expenses were down by 45% compared to the prior year period, mainly reflecting a release of litigation provisions. At the same time, we booked items related to strategy execution, including the impairments of goodwill and other intangibles of around EUR 230 million and restructuring and severance provisions of nearly EUR 200 million. We generated a profit before tax of EUR 698 million, down 10% year-on-year, which mainly reflects the increase in adjusted costs and the nonrepeat of the gain on sale reported in the prior year quarter.

接下來，讓我談談投影片 12 上的第四季亮點。非利息支出為55億歐元，較去年同期成長5%。營業外支出較上年同期下降45%，主要反映訴訟準備金的釋放。同時，我們登記了與策略執行相關的項目，包括約2.3億歐元的商譽和其他無形資產減損以及近2億歐元的重組和遣散費。我們實現稅前利潤 6.98 億歐元，年減 10%，這主要反映了調整後成本的增加以及去年同期報告的銷售收益的不重複。

Net profit of EUR 1.4 billion was down 28% year-on-year, reflecting a lower DTA valuation adjustment compared to the prior year quarter. Our cost/income ratio was 82% and our post-tax return on average tangible common equity was 8.8% in the quarter. Diluted earnings per share was EUR 0.67 in the fourth quarter and tangible book value per share was EUR 28.41, up 6% year-on-year.

淨利潤為 14 億歐元，年減 28%，反映與去年同期相比 DTA 估值調整幅度較低。本季我們的成本/收入比為 82%，平均有形普通股稅後報酬率為 8.8%。第四季稀釋每股收益為0.67歐元，每股有形帳面價值為28.41歐元，較去年同期成長6%。

Let me now turn to some of the drivers of these results. Let me start with a review of our net interest income on Slide 13, which also provides an outlook for the next 2 years. The numbers are based on market expectations for interest rates as of the 26th of January this year. Our reported net interest income of EUR 13.6 billion was broadly stable for the group in 2023 compared to the prior year. but that does not reflect the economic contribution to group revenues due to significant moves in accounting effects, which are offset in noninterest revenues.

現在讓我談談這些結果的一些驅動因素。讓我先回顧幻燈片 13 上的淨利息收入，其中還提供了未來 2 年的展望。這些數字是根據截至今年 1 月 26 日的市場利率預期。我們報告的 2023 年該集團淨利息收入為 136 億歐元，與前一年相比基本穩定。但這並不能反映由於會計影響的重大變化而對集團收入的經濟貢獻，這些影響被非利息收入所抵消。

Focusing on our 3 key NII generating business units as well as other funding costs not offset by accounting FX, we see an improvement of just over EUR 2 billion and a cumulative benefit since 2021 of over EUR 4 billion. Looking ahead on the same basis, we expect a decline of around EUR 600 million in 2024, driven by the convergence of betas to steady-state levels. We expect this to be followed by an increase of around EUR 400 million in 2025, which brings us close to the 2023 NII levels as the beta convergence is largely offset by the rollover of our hedge portfolios as well as balance sheet growth.

重點關注我們的 3 個關鍵 NII 生成業務部門以及未透過會計外匯抵消的其他融資成本，我們看到改進略高於 20 億歐元，自 2021 年以來的累計效益超過 40 億歐元。在同樣的基礎上展望未來，我們預計，由於貝塔值趨於穩態水平，到 2024 年將減少約 6 億歐元。我們預計 2025 年將增加約 4 億歐元，這使我們接近 2023 年的 NII 水平，因為貝塔收斂在很大程度上被我們對沖投資組合的展期和資產負債表增長所抵消。

In line with prior guidance, we expect a larger sequential reduction in the Corporate Bank than in the Private Bank in 2024. We expect a sequential improvement, excluding accounting asymmetries in the Corporate % Other division of around EUR 300 million relating to reduced funding costs for corporate assets and lower retained liquidity and other funding costs. We prepared additional slides on NII, which are in the appendix, but the key messages I want to highlight are that we have around EUR 230 billion of long-term interest rate hedges on our deposits and equity. The majority of these hedges are entered into with a 10-year tenure and the weighted average maturity of the portfolio is 4 to 5 years. We expect EUR 2.5 billion of NII from interest rate hedges in 2024, of which more than 90% is locked in with existing positions.

根據先前的指引，我們預計到2024 年，企業銀行的環比削減幅度將大於私人銀行。部門的會計不對稱性，企業銀行的環比削減幅度將比私人銀行更大。我們準備了關於 NII 的額外幻燈片，這些幻燈片位於附錄中，但我想強調的關鍵訊息是，我們對存款和股權有約 2300 億歐元的長期利率對沖。大多數對沖的期限為 10 年，投資組合的加權平均期限為 4 至 5 年。我們預計 2024 年利率對沖將產生 25 億歐元的 NII，其中 90% 以上被鎖定在現有部位。

Once deposit betas have converged to steady state levels, our NII sensitivity will mostly be to long-term rates as our hedge portfolio rolls over with limited sensitivity to short-term rates unless moves are sharp enough to reintroduce beta lags or approach the 0 bound. We may outperform this guidance if market expectations regarding rate cuts do not fully materialize or deposit betas increased more slowly than expected.

一旦存款貝塔值收斂到穩態水平，我們的NII敏感性將主要針對長期利率，因為我們的對沖投資組合滾動，對短期利率的敏感性有限，除非變動足夠劇烈以重新引入貝塔滯後或接近0界限。如果市場對降息的預期沒有完全實現，或者存款貝塔值的成長速度慢於預期，我們的表現可能會優於這項指引。

With that, let's turn to adjusted cost development on Slide 14. First, our guidance for full year 2023 adjusted costs was essentially flat compared to 2022 as we absorb the impacts from inflation, ongoing investments and business growth, which Christian discussed earlier. We made it clear that this guidance included an expectation that the German banking industry would receive a restitution payment from a National Resolution Fund in the fourth quarter. And as we announced in our pre-close document, this payment was not included in the recently announced budget.

接下來，讓我們轉向幻燈片14 上的調整後成本發展。持續投資和業務成長的影響。我們明確表示，該指導意見包括預計德國銀行業將在第四季度從國家解決基金中獲得賠償金。正如我們在交割前文件中所宣布的那樣，這筆款項未包含在最近公佈的預算中。

While our full year adjusted costs were up 3% year-on-year, in line with our guidance, the fourth quarter adjusted costs of EUR 5.3 billion were up 9% year-on-year, higher than the initial expectations. We had around EUR 210 million of exceptional items in the fourth quarter, resulting in adjusted costs, excluding bank levies of EUR 5.26 billion. About EUR 90 million of these exceptional items are not expected to repeat in the following quarters. About EUR 35 million of costs related to Private Bank service remediation are expected to taper off over time, and around EUR 80 million of other costs should normalize. Reflecting on the nature of these exceptional items and considering savings coming through from efficiency measures, we expect to return to a run rate of around EUR 5 billion in the first quarter of this year.

雖然我們全年調整後成本年增 3%，但與我們的指導方針一致，第四季度調整後成本為 53 億歐元，年增 9%，高於最初預期。第四季我們有約 2.1 億歐元的特殊項目，導致調整後的成本（不包括 52.6 億歐元的銀行稅）。其中約 9000 萬歐元的特殊項目預計在接下來的幾季不會重複出現。隨著時間的推移，與私人銀行服務補救相關的約 3,500 萬歐元的成本預計將逐漸減少，約 8,000 萬歐元的其他成本應會正常化。考慮到這些特殊項目的性質並考慮透過效率措施實現的節省，我們預計今年第一季的運作率將恢復到 50 億歐元左右。

Let's now turn to provision for credit losses on Slide 15. I Provision for credit losses in the fourth quarter was EUR 488 million, equivalent to 41 basis points of average loans. The quarter-on-quarter development in Stage 1 and 2 provisions of EUR 30 million mainly reflects the nonrecurrence of model-related adjustments in the previous quarter and the application of an overlay in this quarter. Stage 3 provisions of EUR 457 million were also higher compared to the prior quarter as we saw elevated levels, mainly in the Private Bank and Corporate Bank, partly offset by a provision reduction in the investment bank. Full year provisions were 31 basis points and reflect higher Stage 3 provisions related to commercial real estate in the investment bank and certain one-offs in the Private Bank, partly offset by lower Stage 1 and 2 provisions as well as slower-than-expected loan growth.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 15 上的信貸損失準備金。第一階段和第二階段準備金的環比發展為3000萬歐元，主要反映了上一季沒有重複模型相關調整以及本季度應用了疊加。第三階段準備金為 4.57 億歐元，也高於上一季度，因為我們看到水平有所上升，主要是在私人銀行和企業銀行，但部分被投資銀行準備金的減少所抵消。全年準備金為31 個基點，反映出投資銀行中與商業房地產相關的第三階段準備金較高以及私人銀行中的某些一次性準備金，部分被第一階段和第二階段準備金較低以及低於預期的貸款所抵消生長。

Before we move to performance in our businesses, let me turn to capital on the next 2 slides, starting with Slide 16. Our fourth quarter common equity Tier 1 ratio came in at 13.7%, a 20 basis point decrease compared to the prior -- previous quarter. This quarter-on-quarter reduction reflects lower capital as our net income was more than offset by capital reductions, most notably for shareholder dividends, AT1 coupons and deferred tax assets. Risk weighted assets were flat over the quarter. Credit risk RWA increased over the quarter, reflecting business growth and model changes. These increases were partly offset by capital optimization initiatives as we continue to focus on the capital efficiency of our balance sheet. Lower market risk and operational risk RWA more than offset higher credit risk RWA over the quarter, reflecting lower market volatility and an improved risk profile. At the end of the fourth quarter, our leverage ratio was 4.5%, reflecting a lower capital position and higher leverage exposure.

在我們轉向業務績效之前，讓我從投影片16 開始，先談談接下來兩張投影片的資本問題。個基點——上一季。這一季度環比減少反映出資本減少，因為我們的淨利潤被資本減少所抵消，尤其是股東股息、AT1 息票和遞延稅資產。本季風險加權資產持平。本季信用風險 RWA 有所增加，反映了業務成長和模式變化。隨著我們繼續關注資產負債表的資本效率，這些成長被資本優化舉措部分抵銷。較低的市場風險和操作風險 RWA 足以抵銷本季較高的信用風險 RWA，反映出市場波動性降低和風險狀況改善。截至第四季末，我們的槓桿率為4.5%，反映出較低的資本部位和較高的槓桿曝險。

Building on Christian's earlier comments on the inflection point in our capital base on Slide 17. Let me give you a view how we want to manage our capital through 2025 and as our profitability is improving and delivering more sustainable net income. First, in line with our ambition, we want to pay out 50% of net income to our shareholders. Second, we will aim to deploy about 25% of net income into the businesses to support further growth. Finally, we expect the remaining 25% will provide us with a buffer for additional capital use, the final implementation of CRR 3 and further distributions, acquisitions or an increase in our capital ratio.

基於 Christian 之前在幻燈片 17 上對我們資本基礎拐點的評論。首先，根據我們的雄心，我們希望將淨利潤的 50% 支付給股東。其次，我們的目標是將約25%的淨利潤投入到業務中，以支持進一步的成長。最後，我們預計剩餘的 25% 將為我們提供額外資本使用、CRR 3 最終實施以及進一步分配、收購或增加資本比率的緩衝。

Let me also give you an update on our capital efficiency program. In the fourth quarter, we delivered RWA relief of a further EUR 3 billion, mainly from additional securitizations, which brings the achieved reduction to EUR 13 billion and means we remain on course for our EUR 25 billion to EUR 30 billion target, and we aim to deliver further progress in 2024.

我也會向您介紹我們資本效率計劃的最新情況。第四季度，我們進一步減少了30 億歐元的RWA，主要來自額外的證券化，這使已實現的減少額達到130 億歐元，這意味著我們仍將朝著250 億歐元至300 億歐元的目標前進，我們的目標到 2024 年取得進一步進展。

Let me give you some more details on our intentions regarding shareholder distributions. In March 2022, we set a goal to increase dividends per share by 50% for 3 consecutive years, which we are on track to deliver. As the slide indicates, subject to a 50% payout ratio, we believe there will be scope to extend the 50% increase objectives to 2025, suggesting a dividend of EUR 1 per share could be paid in 2026. This would bring the total dividend payments over the 5-year period to over EUR 5 billion. At the same time, we are continuing to increase share buybacks. And as Christian mentioned, we will execute a further EUR 675 million program in the first half of 2024, which is again a 50% increase on the buyback program we completed last year.

讓我向您提供有關我們有關股東分配的意圖的更多詳細資訊。 2022年3月，我們設定了連續3年將每股股息提高50%的目標，我們正在努力實現這一目標。如投影片所示，根據 50% 的派息率，我們認為將有空間將 50% 的成長目標延長至 2025 年，這意味著 2026 年可以支付每股 1 歐元的股息。 5 年內將超過50 億歐元。同時，我們正在繼續增加股票回購。正如 Christian 所提到的，我們將在 2024 年上半年進一步執行 6.75 億歐元的計劃，這比我們去年完成的回購計劃增加了 50%。

Finally, given our strong capital and earnings outlook, we see significant scope for further share buybacks and therefore, a clear path to outperform our original distribution target of EUR 8 billion.

最後，鑑於我們強勁的資本和獲利前景，我們認為進一步股票回購的空間很大，因此，這是超越我們最初 80 億歐元分配目標的明確途徑。

Let's now turn to performance in our businesses, starting with the Corporate Bank on Slide 20. Corporate Bank revenues in the fourth quarter were EUR 1.9 billion, 9% higher compared to a prior year quarter, which already reflected the early stages of the interest rate cycle. The interest rate environment remained favorable with revenues further supported by the continued pricing discipline, a solid deposit base and higher commission and fee income. Sequentially, revenues increased slightly, driven by higher net interest income from higher average balances with corporate and institutional clients and higher commission and fee income in our Institutional Client Services business.

現在讓我們轉向我們的業務表現，從幻燈片 20 上的企業銀行開始。利率環境仍然有利，持續的定價紀律、穩固的存款基礎以及更高的佣金和費用收入進一步支撐了收入。隨後，由於企業和機構客戶的平均餘額增加以及機構客戶服務業務的佣金和費用收入增加，淨利息收入增加，收入略有增加。

We continue to anticipate a normalization of our deposit revenues over the coming quarters, which we expect to be partially offset by growing noninterest rate-sensitive revenue streams. Loan volume in the corporate bank declined by EUR 5 billion compared to the prior year quarter and remained stable sequentially, compensating for the impact of FX movements. Deposits were EUR 289 billion, EUR 3 billion higher than in the third quarter with an increased share of term deposit balances compared to the prior year.

我們繼續預計未來幾季我們的存款收入將正常化，我們預計這將被不斷增長的非利率敏感收入流所部分抵消。與去年同期相比，該公司銀行的貸款量下降了 50 億歐元，但環比保持穩定，抵消了外匯波動的影響。存款為 2,890 億歐元，比第三季增加 30 億歐元，其中定期存款餘額比例較上年增加。

Provision for credit losses was 26 basis points of average loans. The moderate increase versus the prior year was driven by higher Stage 3 provisions across various portfolios. Noninterest expenses significantly increased year-on-year driven by the FDIC special assessment charge in the current quarter and adjustments to the internal service cost allocations in the prior year quarter. This resulted in a post-tax return on tangible equity of 15% and a cost/income ratio of 60%.

信用損失準備金為平均貸款的26個基點。與前一年相比的適度成長是由於各個投資組合的第三階段準備金增加所致。受本季 FDIC 特別評估費用和上年度季度內部服務成本分配調整的推動，非利息支出較去年同期顯著增加。這使得有形資產的稅後回報率為 15%，成本/收入比為 60%。

I'll now turn to the Investment Bank on Slide 21. Revenues for the fourth quarter were 10% higher year-on-year on a reported basis and 8% higher, excluding specific items. Revenues in FIC Sales & Trading increased by 1% versus an already strong prior year quarter and represented the highest fourth quarter revenues since 2010. Credit Trading revenues were significantly higher, driven by continued strong performance in Distressed and ongoing improvements in the Flow business.

現在我將轉向投影片 21 上的投資銀行。 FIC 銷售和交易業務的收入與上年同期相比增長了1%，是自2010 年以來第四季度收入最高的。收入大幅增長。

The performance of Flow reflects the successful execution of our strategic initiatives and the investments made through 2023. Emerging Markets revenues were also significantly higher, driven by increased client activity in Asia. Financing revenues were slightly lower versus the prior year quarter, but essentially flat on a full year basis. Rates and Foreign Exchange revenues were both significantly lower when compared to a very strong prior year quarter and reflected an overall decline in market activity and volatility.

Flow 的表現反映了我們策略計畫的成功執行以及截至 2023 年的投資。融資收入較上年同期略有下降，但全年基本持平。與去年非常強勁的季度相比，利率和外匯收入均顯著下降，反映出市場活動和波動性的整體下降。

Moving to Origination & Advisory. Revenues were up 56% when compared to the prior year quarter, but down slightly sequentially due to deal slippage into the first quarter of 2024. Debt Origination revenues were significantly higher, benefiting from an improved LDCM performance, including the non-repeat of hedge losses in the prior year quarter. The leveraged loan market saw a partial recovery from a market that was largely inactive in the prior year. Advisory revenues were slightly lower compared to the prior year period.

轉向發起和諮詢。與去年同期相比，收入增長了 56%，但由於交易推遲到 2024 年第一季度，收入環比略有下降。同期。槓桿貸款市場從去年基本上不活躍的市場中部分復甦。與去年同期相比，諮詢收入略有下降。

However, we expect the previously communicated investments into targeted sectors and regions during 2023 to drive improved performance this year against an improving industry backdrop. Noninterest expenses were significantly higher year-on-year, largely the result of a one-off impairment of goodwill related to our investment in the acquisition of Numis. Adjusted costs were slightly higher, reflecting targeted investments in Origination & Advisory, which includes the Numis acquisition. Leverage exposure, risk-weighted assets and loans were all broadly stable year-on-year. Provision for credit losses was EUR 186 million or 73 basis points of average loans. The increase versus the prior year quarter was primarily driven by the model impact on Stage 1 and 2 performing loans with stage 3 impairments also higher and primarily driven by commercial real estate.

然而，我們預計先前溝通過的 2023 年對目標產業和地區的投資將在產業改善的背景下推動今年業績的改善。非利息支出較去年同期顯著增加，主要是由於我們投資收購 Numis 相關的一次性商譽減損所致。調整後的成本略有上升，反映出對起源和諮詢的有針對性的投資，其中包括收購 Numis。槓桿敞口、風險加權資產和貸款年比基本穩定。信貸損失準備金為 1.86 億歐元，相當於平均貸款的 73 個基點。與去年同期相比的成長主要是由於模型對第一階段和第二階段不良貸款的影響，第三階段減損損失也較高，主要是由商業房地產推動的。

Turning to the Private Bank on Slide 22. Private Bank revenues were EUR 2.4 billion in the quarter, up 9% year-on-year, if adjusted for the gain on sale of around EUR 310 million related to the financial advisers business in Italy last year. Private Bank Germany revenues increased by 10% year-on-year, mainly driven by interest income, reflecting strong deposit margins. In the International Private Bank, revenues were up 9% year-on-year, if adjusted for specific items and FX movements. The growth was driven by episodic revenues in lending and higher deposit revenues across Europe and Middle East which were partially offset by continued muted capital market activity and client deleveraging in APAC.

轉向幻燈片 22 上的私人銀行。德國私人銀行營收年增10%，主要受到利息收入的推動，反映出強勁的存款利潤。如果針對特定項目和外匯變動進行調整，國際私人銀行的營收年增 9%。這一增長是由歐洲和中東地區的貸款收入和較高的存款收入推動的，但亞太地區持續低迷的資本市場活動和客戶去槓桿化部分抵消了這一增長。

Turning to costs. noninterest expenses were significantly higher year-on-year, driven by approximately EUR 100 million of restructuring and severance costs as well as investments in strategic initiatives, Postbank service remediation costs and inflation. These were partly mitigated by continued savings from transformation programs and lower internal cost allocations. Fourth quarter provisions for credit losses of 30 basis points of average loans continue to include temporary effects caused by the operational backlog. The development of the overall portfolio continuously reflects the high quality of the loan book, especially in the retail businesses and ongoing tight risk discipline. The business has attracted strong net inflows into assets under management of EUR 7 billion, mainly in deposits.

轉向成本。由於約 1 億歐元的重組和遣散成本以及戰略舉措投資、郵政銀行服務補救成本和通貨膨脹，非利息支出較去年同期顯著增加。轉型計劃的持續節省和內部成本分配的降低在一定程度上緩解了這些問題。第四季信貸損失撥備為平均貸款30個基點，繼續包括營運積壓造成的臨時影響。整體投資組合的發展不斷反映了貸款帳簿的高品質，尤其是零售業務的品質以及持續嚴格的風險紀律。該業務吸引了 70 億歐元管理資產的強勁淨流入，其中主要是存款。

Let me continue with Asset Management on Slide 23. My usual reminder, the Asset Management segment includes certain items that are not part of the DWS stand-alone financials. Assets under management increased to EUR 896 billion in the quarter, supported by net inflows and positive market depreciation of EUR 40 billion, partly offset by negative FX effects. Net inflows of EUR 11 billion were primarily in passive once again, continuing the positive momentum we have seen throughout the year as well as in cash products. Revenues declined by 5% versus the prior year. This was primarily the result of a decline in management fees to EUR 575 million. Other revenues declined due to lower investment income and higher funding charges. Compensation and benefits costs were higher, mainly driven by a change in accounting treatment related to carried interest in the prior year quarter, partly offset by lower other variable compensation. Non-compensation costs were also higher, reflecting support for transformation and costs related to growth in assets under management. In the prior year period, nonoperating costs included a significant impairment charge for an unamortized intangible asset, which is not repeated this year. Profit before tax is significantly lower than the prior year period, mainly impacted by lower revenues. The cost income ratio for the quarter was 81% and return on tangible equity was 7.1%.

讓我繼續投影片 23 上的資產管理。本季管理資產增加至 8,960 億歐元，這得益於淨流入和 400 億歐元的市場正貶值（部分被外匯負面影響所抵消）。 110 億歐元的淨流入再次主要處於被動狀態，延續了我們全年以及現金產品所看到的積極勢頭。收入較上年下降 5%。這主要是由於管理費下降至 5.75 億歐元。由於投資收入減少和融資費用增加，其他收入也有所下降。薪資和福利成本較高，主要是由於與上一季度附帶權益相關的會計處理方式發生變化，但其他可變薪酬的下降部分抵消了這一變化。非薪酬成本也較高，反映出對轉型的支持以及與管理資產成長相關的成本。上一年期間，營業外成本包括未攤銷無形資產的重大減損費用，今年不再重複。稅前利潤顯著低於去年同期，主要是受到收入下降的影響。該季度的成本收入率為81%，有形資產回報率為7.1%。

Moving to Corporate & Other on Slide 24. Corporate & Other reported a pre-tax loss of EUR 14 million this quarter versus the equivalent pre-tax loss of EUR 535 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. This improvement was primarily driven by a net litigation release of EUR 287 million in this quarter. Valuation and timing differences were positive EUR 142 million, compared to EUR 48 million in the prior year quarter, in part driven by the reversal of prior year losses. The pre-tax profit associated with legacy portfolios was EUR 75 million, primarily reflecting the aforementioned litigation release.

轉向幻燈片 24 上的企業及其他。季度訴訟免繳金額為2.87 億歐元。估值和時間差異為正 1.42 億歐元，而去年同期為 4,800 萬歐元，部分原因是去年虧損的扭轉。與遺留投資組合相關的稅前利潤為 7,500 萬歐元，主要反映了上述訴訟釋放。

Funding and liquidity impacts were negative EUR 111 million in the quarter, bringing the full year in line with our guidance. Expenses associated with shareholder activities were EUR 147 million in the quarter, which we see as the new quarterly run rate. At the end of the fourth quarter, risk weighted assets were EUR 40 billion, including EUR 19 billion of operational risk RWA and leverage exposure was EUR 39 billion. For the full year, the loss before tax in C&O was EUR 553 million. Looking into 2024, we expect the pre-tax loss for Corporate & Other to be more negative given the nonrepeat of the aforementioned litigation release. As usual, this includes some uncertainty, particularly associated with valuation and timing differences.

本季融資和流動性影響為負 1.11 億歐元，使全年業績符合我們的指引。本季與股東活動相關的費用為 1.47 億歐元，我們將其視為新的季度運行率。第四季末，風險加權資產為400億歐元，其中操作風險RWA為190億歐元，槓桿曝險為390億歐元。全年，C&O 稅前虧損為 5.53 億歐元。展望 2024 年，鑑於上述訴訟不再重複，我們預期企業及其他業務的稅前損失將更為負面。像往常一樣，這包括一些不確定性，特別是與估值和時間差異相關的不確定性。

Turning to the group outlook on Slide 25. As Christian and I have outlined, we are increasingly confident in our growth path, particularly in our ambitions to grow fee income across divisions. We have revised our revenue growth target to 5.5% to 6.5% over the 2021 to 2025 period, supported by investments across all business areas and a more favorable economic and market backdrop. We are fully focused on delivering our cost plan and we see our noninterest expenses reducing due to the nonrepeat of certain nonoperating costs as well as management actions to maintain our targeted quarterly run rate of EUR 5 billion of adjusted costs. We expect provision for credit losses to remain at around 25 to 30 basis points of average loans in 2024. As we outlined last quarter, we have passed an inflection point in our capital management plan, which supports our intention to distribute roughly half of our generated net income to shareholders, which alongside with cost management is our key management priority.

轉向幻燈片 25 上的集團前景。在所有業務領域的投資以及更有利的經濟和市場背景的支持下，我們將 2021 年至 2025 年期間的收入成長目標修訂為 5.5% 至 6.5%。我們完全專注於執行成本計劃，並且由於某些非營運成本不再重複，以及為維持 50 億歐元調整成本的目標季度運行率而採取的管理行動，我們的非利息支出有所減少。我們預計2024 年信貸損失撥備將保持在平均貸款的25 至30 個基點左右。資金的意圖股東淨利潤，與成本管理一起是我們的主要管理重點。

And finally, with our first half, EUR 675 million share buyback approved we are poised to further accelerate distributions beyond our baseline expectations.

最後，隨著上半年 6.75 億歐元的股票回購獲得批准，我們準備進一步加速分配，超越我們的基準預期。

With that, let me hand back to Ioana, and we look forward to your questions.

接下來，讓我回到 Ioana，我們期待您的提問。

Thank you, James. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

謝謝你，詹姆斯。接線員，我們現在準備好回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is from Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs International.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自高盛國際公司的 Chris Hallam。

Just 2 from me. First, on distribution, looking at Slide 18, I guess if I take all those numbers together, would I be wrong in saying that the EUR 8 billion distribution target is now about 25% higher at around EUR 10 billion? And for this year, consensus has about EUR 1 billion in share buybacks with respect to '23 results. Now you've announced EUR 675 million. And so that there's more to come. So just do you feel comfortable with the EUR 1 billion figure that consensus has in?

就我2個。首先，關於分配，看看幻燈片 18，我想如果我把所有這些數字放在一起，我說 80 億歐元的分配目標現在比現在的 100 億歐元左右高出約 25% 是錯的嗎？今年，就 23 年業績而言，共識是進行約 10 億歐元的股票回購。現在您已宣布 6.75 億歐元。因此還會有更多的事情發生。那麼您對共識中的 10 億歐元數字感到滿意嗎？

And then second, on costs. Obviously, there was a lot of one-offs in Q4, and I guess we're going to see the EUR 5 billion underlying from Q1, as you mentioned. But just as we start the year, what can you see in terms of one-offs for '24 and maybe for '25 as well?

其次，關於成本。顯然，第四季度有很多一次性的情況，正如您所提到的，我想我們將在第一季看到 50 億歐元的基礎資金。但就在我們開始新的一年之際，您對 24 年甚至 25 年的一次性事件有何看法？

Thank you, Chris, and good morning to everybody, and thank you for your question. But let me start with the capital question, and then James will take the cost question. Let me go back to the Investor Day 2022 because I think it's important that we all understand the path, which we have announced there, in particular, also regard with the capital part and the EUR 8 billion. Since then, since March 2022, we have consistently delivered on that what we have told you and that is no different today. And our focus has always been on the execution of our strategy and the commitment actually on the 1 hand, to focus on our clients. But Chris, more and more what we have done in the management board of Deutsche Bank is actually to put the shareholders into the middle of focus what we are doing.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安，謝謝你的提問。但讓我從資本問題開始，然後詹姆斯將回答成本問題。讓我回到 2022 年投資者日，因為我認為我們都了解我們在那裡宣布的路徑非常重要，特別是還要考慮資本部分和 80 億歐元。從那時起，自 2022 年 3 月以來，我們始終如一地兌現了我們告訴您的內容，今天也不例外。我們的重點始終是策略的執行和實際的承諾，一方面，以客戶為中心。但是克里斯，我們在德意志銀行管理委員會所做的越來越多的事情實際上是讓股東關注我們正在做的事情。

Now with the investments which we have done with the business, how it develops with the inflection point we see on regulatory remediation taking the regulatory increases into our capital in and digesting it. We can clearly see that we are at the inflection point on our franchise but in particular also when it comes to our capital position. And hence, we can see that we have now the room to further step up. And that is then the result that we said already last year in October that we see, based on the efficient capital management, the operating strength of the business, the earnings profile that we see EUR 3 billion of incremental capital at our disposal. And of course, it is our aim that a significant part of this EUR 3 billion will be actually distributed to our shareholders. Again, also with the view that it's now the time that the shareholders go actually also into the center of what we are doing.

現在，透過我們對業務所做的投資，我們在監管補救措施中看到的轉折點如何發展，將監管增加納入我們的資本並消化它。我們可以清楚地看到，我們正處於特許經營權的轉折點，特別是在我們的資本狀況方面。因此，我們可以看到我們現在有進一步提升的空間。這就是我們去年 10 月已經說過的結果，基於高效的資本管理、業務的營運實力和獲利狀況，我們看到可支配的增量資本為 30 億歐元。當然，我們的目標是將這 30 億歐元中的很大一部分實際分配給我們的股東。同樣，我們也認為現在是股東真正參與我們正在做的事情的中心的時候了。

Now what does it mean concretely? And also there, Chris, if we compare this year to last year, last year in the January earnings call, we did not actually talk about and had the approval for a share buyback. You see our confidence overall in the way the bank has done and on which way we are. And therefore, we ask for the approval of the EUR 675 million last year. We got the approval now. And that also means to your second question there on the way for 2024 in case, and I'm very confident just looking at January, in case our business performance runs as we forecasted in Q1, I think there is an opportunity, and we should obviously aspire to go for a second approach this year, and that we already have the approval for the first 1 in January is, I think, a big difference to last year.

現在它具體意味著什麼？克里斯，如果我們將今年與去年進行比較，去年一月份的財報電話會議上，我們實際上並沒有談論並獲得了股票回購的批准。您可以看到我們對銀行的做法和我們目前的做法充滿信心。因此，我們去年請求批准 6.75 億歐元。我們現在得到了批准。這也意味著你在 2024 年提出的第二個問題，我對 1 月份的情況非常有信心，如果我們的業務表現符合我們在第一季的預測，我認為有機會，我們應該顯然，我們渴望今年採取第二種方法，而且我們已經在一月份獲得了第一種方法的批准，我認為，這與去年有很大不同。

Secondly, if I now look at the overall earnings capacity of the bank, how the revenues stack up and also what James will tell you about the cost side, I really clearly can see that we can change the payout in terms of what we what we retain and what goes to the shareholders to a 50-50. And it is clearly our goal that the 50% increase, which we committed to in the last years, which we have done is also something which we want to do going forward. Of course, subject to our earnings forecast. But again, we are highly confident and that would mean -- I mean, you mentioned the number, you know where the consensus is that, that obviously results in a number where I said, yes, I would like to actually go to consensus when it comes to share buybacks and capital distribution in total.

其次，如果我現在看看銀行的整體盈利能力、收入如何疊加以及詹姆斯將告訴你有關成本方面的內容，我真的可以清楚地看到我們可以根據我們的內容來改變支出保留和分配給股東的比例為50-50。很明顯，我們的目標是增加 50%，這是我們在過去幾年中承諾的，我們已經做到了，這也是我們未來想要做的事情。當然，這取決於我們的獲利預測。但同樣，我們非常有信心，這意味著——我的意思是，你提到了這個數字，你知道共識在哪裡，這顯然會產生一個我說的數字，是的，我想在以下情況下真正達成共識：它涉及股票回購和資本分配的總額。

And Chris, it's James. On the expense side, look, Q4 was messy. We had advertised that there were some items that we were expecting. We obviously try to give you as much of a forward look as we can. But as you can see on Page 14, there was a bunch of things that sort of tumbled out that -- some of which caught us by surprise. I'd say, as a great example, the FDIC assessment, the way it was formulated and crafted brought basically 2 years' worth of assessment into the 1 quarter. And if I go to another question that frequently comes up on these base calls, what flexibility do we have to offset, while we think that product flexibility is greater than it has been in the past, EUR 50 million coming out of nowhere in late November, early December is not something you can really offset at that point in time.

克里斯，是詹姆斯。從費用方面來看，第四季很混亂。我們在廣告中說有一些我們期待的商品。顯然，我們盡力為您提供盡可能多的前瞻性。但正如你在第 14 頁上看到的，有很多事情被揭露出來——其中一些讓我們感到驚訝。我想說，作為一個很好的例子，FDIC 的評估，其製定和製定的方式基本上將 2 年的評估價值納入第一季。如果我談談這些基本要求中經常出現的另一個問題，我們必須抵消什麼靈活性，雖然我們認為產品靈活性比過去更大，11 月底不知從何而來的 5000 萬歐元，12月初並不是你能在那個時間點真正抵銷的。

But your question is what comfort can we give you that the one-offs are coming to an end? I think our goal is to deliver a much cleaner, more predictable profile. And the last few years have been anything about that with transformation charges. Obviously, the bank levy that introduces volatility, some of the litigation items that have come at us that we hadn't expected to fall out the way they did. And while we can -- you can never guarantee that there won't be new things coming up, if I look at the various risks and uncertainties that lie ahead, they're much fewer than lies behind us. And so I'd like to think that our path to normalization is close.

但你的問題是，一次性事件即將結束，我們能給你什麼安慰？我認為我們的目標是提供更清晰、更可預測的概況。過去幾年，轉型費用一直在改變。顯然，銀行徵費會帶來波動，一些我們沒有想到的訴訟項目會以這種方式解決。雖然我們可以——你永遠不能保證不會出現新的事情，但如果我看看未來的各種風險和不確定性，就會發現它們比我們後面的要少得多。因此，我認為我們的正常化之路已接近尾聲。

There would be -- I mean, if I look to '24, we do expect some restructuring charges in '24, perhaps EUR 400 million. That's still an elevated level relative to what I would think of as normalized. And clearly, our goal is that by 2025, we will have normalized in respect of both restructuring and severance and litigation. It's 1 of the reasons our investment in nonfinancial risk is so critical in the control environment is stop making ourselves vulnerable to those types of things. So we do think we're much closer to providing a normalized picture and also to having the levers in our hands to offset adverse developments better.

我的意思是，如果我展望 24 年，我們確實預計 24 年會產生一些重組費用，也許是 4 億歐元。相對於我認為的正常化水平，這仍然是一個較高的水平。顯然，我們的目標是到 2025 年，我們將在重組、遣散費和訴訟方面實現正常化。我們對非金融風險的投資在控制環境中如此重要的原因之一是不要讓自己容易受到此類事情的影響。因此，我們確實認為我們更接近提供正常化的情況，也更接近掌握更好地抵消不利事態發展的槓桿。

Our next question is from Kian Abouhossein from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Kian Abouhossein。

Kian, are you there? Are you on mute?

基恩，你在嗎？你靜音了嗎？

Apologies, I was on mute. The first question is related to trading revenues, which you indicated, I think James has started very well. And I just wanted to see what you're comparing this to. Is this a year-on-year comparison? And what is driving that? I assume in fixed income?

抱歉，我當時靜音了。第一個問題與交易收入有關，你表示，我認為詹姆斯的起步非常好。我只是想看看你將其與什麼進行比較。這是同比比較嗎？是什麼推動了這一點？我假設是固定收益？

Secondly, can you also talk clearly in that context around the investment banking fee pool, where I think you also indicated momentum is continuing from what you said earlier at a recent conference.

其次，您能否在這一背景下清楚地談論投資銀行費用池，我認為您也表明了您之前在最近一次會議上所說的勢頭正在持續。

And then secondly, just coming back to cost. Clearly, the target is adjusted cost EUR 5 billion, about EUR 5 billion. And just if you can talk a little bit about the leverage that you have in case you will not be able to get to about EUR 5 billion or what EUR 5 billion about actually means plus/minus 4%, 5%? How should we think about that?

其次，回到成本。顯然，調整後的目標成本為50億歐元，約50億歐元。如果你能談談你所擁有的槓桿，以防你無法達到約 50 億歐元，或者 50 億歐元實際上意味著正負 4%、5%？我們該如何思考這個問題？

Thank you. Let me start, and then James will for sure add. Look, Kian, thanks for your question. I think on the trading revenues, we know it's obviously early days with January. But what are we doing? We are comparing it to last year. We are comparing it to our own plan. And we also look at the consistency actually of the day-to-day trading also with regard to our VAR and it looks very healthy. It looks a very kind of a consistent picture across the different sectors in the trading area. So it is broad-based across the regions. And I would say 1 reason for the strong start is for sure, that we have been investing, and Ram has really built up the FIC business over the last 5 years, quarter by quarter. And of course, the latest rating upgrade by S&P also helps.

謝謝。讓我開始吧，然後詹姆斯肯定會補充。聽著，基安，謝謝你的問題。我認為就交易收入而言，我們知道一月份顯然還為時過早。但我們在做什麼呢？我們正在將其與去年進行比較。我們正在將其與我們自己的計劃進行比較。我們還研究了日常交易的實際一致性以及我們的 VAR，它看起來非常健康。貿易領域不同部門的情況看起來非常一致。因此它在各個地區都有廣泛的基礎。我想說，強勁開局的一個原因是，我們一直在投資，而且 Ram 在過去 5 年裡逐季建立了 FIC 業務。當然，標準普爾最新的評級升級也有幫助。

I mean, these are all things which are then self-fulfilling, so to say. You will remember my speeches that each rating upgrade also means that obviously, clients are coming back, are doing different and more trades with us. We are changing the (inaudible) . All that is coming through. And therefore, we can see that yes, January was good and nice and better than we expected. But I can see from the basis and foundation that in my view, this is a quite consistent trend. And I also expect, by the way, and we said that 78% of the '23 revenue year were recurring revenues, which is a pretty good picture. And therefore, I also expect with all the investments we have done in the, so to say, more stable business that we have a solid and strong start into January.

我的意思是，可以說，這些都是可以自我實現的事情。您會記得我的演講，每次評級升級也意味著顯然，客戶正在回來，正在與我們進行不同的、更多的交易。我們正在更改（聽不清楚）。這一切都正在發生。因此，我們可以看到，是的，一月很好，比我們預期的要好。但從基礎和基礎我可以看到，在我看來，這是一個相當一致的趨勢。順便說一句，我還預計，我們說過 23 年收入的 78% 是經常性收入，這是一個相當不錯的情況。因此，我也希望透過我們在更穩定的業務方面所做的所有投資，我們在一月份有一個堅實而強勁的開局。

On the fee income in the O&A, yes, we expect a recovery in '24. It is always very hard to say when exactly. But we have planned our investments last year in terms of the Numis acquisition, but also in terms of the hiring on the O&A side with regard to a long-term development of the bank. We wanted to invest into our capital-light business. And fortunately, we can now see the results of that. So also here, we can see a recovery in terms of mandates, a recovery in terms of market activities. And therefore, we do believe that we will see compared to 2023, a nice uptick in the revenues. And the first results we have already seen also in January. But again, I know it's just the first 30 days of the year. But also they are very promising and that what we wanted to achieve is coming through.

關於 O&A 的費用收入，是的，我們預計 24 年會恢復。總是很難說清具體時間。但我們去年就規劃了對 Numis 的收購以及 O&A 方面的招聘方面的投資，以實現銀行的長期發展。我們想投資我們的輕資本業務。幸運的是，我們現在可以看到結果。因此，在這裡，我們也可以看到任務的復甦，市場活動的復甦。因此，我們確實相信，與 2023 年相比，我們將看到收入的大幅成長。我們在一月也已經看到了第一個結果。但我再說一次，我知道這只是今年的前 30 天。但它們也非常有前途，我們想要實現的目標正在實現。

On the cost side, look, I -- James just said it, and he will give you more details. But, a, we have a full focus after Q4 showing you already in Q1 that we hit a EUR 5 billion run rate in Q1. This has daily management, daily monitoring, weekly in the management board and I'm very confident that we will achieve that number of around EUR 5.0 billion in Q1.

在成本方面，你看，我——詹姆斯剛剛說了，他會給你更多細節。但是，a，我們在第四季度之後全面關注，向您展示我們在第一季達到了 50 億歐元的運行率。管理委員會每週進行日常管理、日常監控，我非常有信心我們將在第一季實現約 50 億歐元的目標。

Now why am I overall so confident on that? Because of that, what James said. I mean if you take the EUR 21.7 billion cost and we need to come to EUR 20 billion, we will expect nonoperating costs to decrease by around EUR 700 million. We will expect approximately a reduction of bank levies in the amount of EUR 350 million to EUR 400 million in '24 versus '23. That would bring us roughly to EUR 20.5 billion. And now we are looking at that what we are constantly managing with the front office with the back offices under Rebecca's leadership. And that means we expect that we have another EUR 400 million net reduction from all what is still coming off our operational efficiency program.

為什麼我總體上對此如此有信心？正因為如此，詹姆斯才這麼說。我的意思是，如果考慮 217 億歐元的成本，而我們需要達到 200 億歐元，我們預計非營運成本將減少約 7 億歐元。我們預計，與 23 年相比，24 年銀行稅將減少約 3.5 億至 4 億歐元。這將使我們大約達到 205 億歐元。現在我們正在研究在麗貝卡的領導下我們在前台和後台不斷管理的內容。這意味著我們預計營運效率計畫中尚未完成的所有項目將再淨減少 4 億歐元。

You know the EUR 2.5 billion of gross reductions, we have delivered savings or expected savings of EUR 1.3 billion of which EUR 900 million have been realized up to now. And the remainder comes from EUR 600 million in Germany in the optimization. Claudio is doing in particular on the business side, with all the rationalization on the brand side with all the investments which have been done into Unity and now we are getting the fruits out of this. We have on technology and infrastructure, another EUR 700 million, which we will reduce application decommissioning and so on.

您知道，在總削減額為 25 億歐元的情況下，我們已經節省或預期節省了 13 億歐元，其中迄今為止已經實現了 9 億歐元。其餘部分則來自德國的 6 億歐元優化。 Claudio 尤其是在業務方面，在品牌方面進行了所有合理化，並對 Unity 進行了所有投資，現在我們正在從中獲得成果。我們在技術和基礎設施上還有7億歐元，我們將用這些資金減少應用程式退役等。

And then you know that we are -- for our core processes, we have invested a lot of money, and we will do this also going forward in the front-to-back process redesign, where we think we will get another EUR 300 million out. Now against that, there is obviously some inflation, some business growth, but that makes us highly, highly confident that we can get the next EUR 400 million to EUR 500 million of operational efficiency net out, and that brings us to EUR 20 billion. The good thing is that is the long-term plan for '24 and '25. But if you see the bottom-up plan for the first quarter, we will achieve the EUR 5.0 billion on a rounded basis this quarter.

然後你知道，我們對於我們的核心流程投入了大量資金，我們也將在從前到後的流程重新設計中這樣做，我們認為我們將再獲得 3 億歐元出去。與此相反，顯然存在一些通貨膨脹，一些業務成長，但這使我們非常非常有信心，我們能夠獲得接下來 4 億至 5 億歐元的淨營運效率，這使我們達到 200 億歐元。好消息是，這是 '24 和 '25 的長期計劃。但如果你看到第一季自下而上的計劃，我們將在本季四捨五入的基礎上實現 50 億歐元。

So Kian, I entirely endorse what Christian just went through and just to put a couple of numbers behind it as well. And FIC, I would draw your attention to Page 47 of the analyst deck, where we tried to give you a little bit more color on how the FIC franchise performs on a daily basis and relative to its VAR. And so it gives you a good kind of comparison as to what so far the quarter might look like compared to last year's first quarter. I think the second thing to add, the -- in the corporate finance wallet, if you look at some of the external sort of providers of data on that marketplace, I think those providers would say that the market will -- the wallet will grow sort of 15% to 20% this year. As Christian just outlined, that obviously still needs to happen, but we think the conditions are there. And as Christian just outlined through Numis and the other hires we've invested to participate in that.

所以基安，我完全同意克里斯蒂安剛剛經歷的事情，也只是在背後加上一些數字。 FIC，我想提請您注意分析師平台的第 47 頁，我們試圖在其中為您提供更多關於 FIC 特許經營權的日常表現以及相對於其 VAR 的信息。因此，它可以讓您很好地比較本季迄今為止與去年第一季的情況。我認為要補充的第二件事是——在企業財務錢包中，如果你看看該市場上的一些外部數據提供商，我認為這些提供商會說市場將會——錢包將會增長今年大約是15% 到20%。正如克里斯蒂安剛剛概述的那樣，這顯然仍然需要發生，但我們認為條件已經具備。正如克里斯蒂安剛剛透過努米斯和我們投資參與其中的其他員工所概述的那樣。

And then lastly, on expenses, to give you a sense of what we would think is a significant -- is a range of outcomes, 1% rather than 4% is that we have the discipline and for us missing by 1% or EUR 50 million would be a disappointment. And that gives you a sense of how we're managing the place.

最後，關於費用，為了讓您了解我們認為重要的是一系列結果，1% 而不是 4% 是我們有紀律，對我們來說，損失了 1% 或 50 歐元萬將令人失望。這讓您了解我們如何管理這個地方。

Our next question is from Adam Terelak from Mediobanca.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mediobanca 的 Adam Terelak。

One on revenues and 1 on costs. On the revenue side, you've given a lot of detail on NII and NII trajectory. You've given us EUR 32 billion for '25, hinted to EUR 30 billion still for this year. But could you put a little bit more meat on the bones, please? That be -- by division and expectations by division, but also on the non-NII growth in terms of what you see in terms of fee momentum and beyond the RNA piece but also on loan growth as well, which clearly is baked into your NII assumptions? So some more color around revenue and revenue expectations and why we should be as bullish as you guys are, that would be great.

一份關於收入，一份關於成本。在收入方面，您提供了有關 NII 和 NII 軌蹟的大量詳細資訊。你們在 25 年為我們提供了 320 億歐元，暗示今年仍將提供 300 億歐元。但是你能在骨頭上多放一點肉嗎？那就是——按部門和按部門的預期，而且還包括非NII增長，即您在費用動量方面看到的增長，超出RNA部分，還有貸款增長，這顯然已納入您的NII中假設？因此，關於收入和收入預期以及為什麼我們應該像你們一樣樂觀的更多色彩，那就太好了。

And secondly, on cost and cost trajectory, you're talking to EUR 5 billion for Q1. Clearly, the run rate for next year is going to be below that if you're going to get to EUR 20 billion. So what does that adjusted cost to look like through this year? Do we actually end up kind of below EUR 5 billion by the end of the year? And so the adjusted cost print could be in kind of the EUR 20 billion range for 2024? Obviously, the reported number might be higher, but I'm thinking about adjusted costs only at this stage.

其次，就成本和成本軌跡而言，第一季的成本為 50 億歐元。顯然，如果要達到 200 億歐元，明年的運行率將低於這個水準。那麼今年調整後的成本會是什麼樣子呢？到今年年底，我們的收入實際上會低於 50 億歐元嗎？那麼 2024 年調整後的成本印刷可能會在 200 億歐元的範圍內？顯然，報告的數字可能更高，但我僅在現階段考慮調整成本。

So I can start. Christian may want to add. So on revenues, Adam, first of all, we provided the additional disclosure on net interest revenues or net interest income to try to sort of put that to one side. Hopefully, that's helpful disclosure and indicates the relatively high degree of confidence we have on delivering against that, whether that's by hedging out the remaining sort of curve or also indicating how conservative we think we're being on, for example, beta assumptions and growth in volumes. But set that to one side and then that allows you to focus on the noninterest revenues.

這樣我就可以開始了。克里斯蒂安可能想補充一下。因此，在收入方面，亞當，首先，我們提供了有關淨利息收入或淨利息收入的額外披露，試圖將其放在一邊。希望這是有幫助的披露，並表明我們對實現這一點有相對較高的信心，無論是通過對沖剩餘的曲線還是表明我們認為我們在貝塔假設和增長等方面的保守程度成捲。但把它放在一邊，這樣你就可以專注於非利息收入。

There to give you a sense, we think all of the businesses are poised to grow their revenues on noninterest side pretty considerably. When you just think of all the sources of noninterest revenues we have, I mean, start with the Corporate Bank, custody, transactions, payments, the merchant acquiring business, the documentary custody business, I mean, we earn fees across that business in lots of different ways.

讓您感覺到，我們認為所有企業都準備好在非利息方面大幅成長其收入。當你想到我們擁有的所有非利息收入來源時，我的意思是，從公司銀行、託管、交易、支付、商家收單業務、跟單託管業務開始，我的意思是，我們在該業務中賺取大量費用不同的方式。

The [Duco] here with the overall sort of performance and level of activity in the marketplace. In Asset Management and Private Bank, obviously, the assets under management are the key driver, and therefore, our inflows are encouraging to us. It means our step off into '24 is higher than the average considerably in both businesses that we ran at in '23. And we also think, in general, investor behavior, particularly in the International Private Bank Wealth Management business has been relatively muted. So we think there, there's growth opportunity as well.

這裡的 [Duco] 展示了市場中的整體表現和活動水平。在資產管理和私人銀行領域，顯然，管理資產是主要驅動力，因此，我們的資金流入對我們來說是令人鼓舞的。這意味著我們進入 24 年的步伐大大高於我們在 23 年開展的兩項業務的平均水平。我們也認為，整體而言，投資人的行為，尤其是國際私人銀行財富管理業務的投資人行為相對平靜。所以我們認為那裡也存在成長機會。

And that then leads you to the Investment Bank. We've talked about where we -- what we see as a recovery in Origination & Advisory, coupled with potentially market share expansion given the investments that we've made, and that's encouraging to us. And we think there's also runway in FIC as we've continued to put investments in place across sort of -- I won't call them adjacencies. So within our footprint areas where we think we're underperforming our potential, and Ram and his team have been very deliberate executing on those investments. We think that, that also will provide a strong backdrop.

然後你就會找到投資銀行。我們已經討論了我們所看到的發起和諮詢領域的復甦，以及考慮到我們所做的投資而可能擴大的市場份額，這對我們來說是令人鼓舞的。我們認為 FIC 也有跑道，因為我們繼續在各種領域進行投資——我不會稱它們為鄰接。因此，在我們認為我們沒有發揮潛力的足跡區域內，拉姆和他的團隊一直非常謹慎地執行這些投資。我們認為，這也將提供強而有力的背景。

In terms of -- to give you orders of magnitude, obviously, the Origination & Advisory piece is the largest in terms of our expectations in absolute terms. But it's also the market in our view that has been most muted in the past couple of years. So there, we think of it less as growth from a foundation rather than recovery and that's something we see the preconditions is clearly in place for.

就數量級而言，顯然，就我們的絕對期望而言，發起和諮詢部分是最大的。但我們認為，這也是過去幾年最平靜的市場。因此，我們認為它不是基礎上的成長，而是復甦，我們認為前提條件顯然已經到位。

I just want to add 1 item. And just to give you a little bit of the feel, Adam, also how stable the revenues, for instance, in the Corporate Bank has performed over the last 6 months. Of course, we have already seen in the Corporate Bank on a monthly basis some kind of normalization on the NII, but that was always fully compensated already by fee income given our investments which we have done. And we feel that this is also happening in '24, given the mandates which we have won. You remember potentially that in October, in the earnings call, we talked about the increase of 1 mandate with multinational corporates. Well, that is continuing. And obviously, this is helping us now a lot also to go against the NII normalization in the Corporate Bank.

我只想添加 1 項。 Adam，只是讓您稍微了解一下過去 6 個月企業銀行的收入表現有多穩定。當然，我們已經在企業銀行看到國家資訊基礎設施按月實現某種正常化，但考慮到我們所做的投資，這總是已經透過費用收入得到了充分補償。鑑於我們已經贏得了授權，我們認為這種情況也會在 24 年發生。您可能還記得，在 10 月的財報電話會議上，我們討論了增加與跨國公司的 1 項授權。嗯，這還在繼續。顯然，這現在也對我們反對企業銀行的國家資訊基礎設施正常化有很大幫助。

So it is actually healthy -- it's a healthy distribution going forward. And if I then think from the starting point of view that we have, as James, is just saying EUR 57 billion of additional assets under management, in the Private Bank and in Asset Management and what already that brings us at the start of the year, which we already sort of say, captured, that makes us highly confident that we come to that number, which you just quoted, the EUR 30 billion for '24.

所以它實際上是健康的——這是一個健康的分佈。如果我從一開始就認為我們像詹姆斯一樣，只是說在私人銀行和資產管理方面管理著 570 億歐元的額外資產，這在年初已經給我們帶來了什麼，我們已經說過，捕獲了這一點，這使我們非常有信心達到您剛才引用的那個數字，即24 年的300 億歐元。

And just briefly on the run rate. Look, we've got to continue working it back down. As you saw in 2023, it crept up a little bit. It was basically 4.9% for much of the year, and then it could crept up to EUR 5 billion as we'd advertised, it did kind of go further than we expected. But we'd like to bring it back to 5%, and if possible, below. What that depends on is strong execution of our initiatives, controlling, if you like, the throttling of investments so that we line them up with the crystallization of savings. And to Chris' point at the outset, the absence of surprises. But we feel like we've got the tools in our hands to achieve that and a lot of hard work lies ahead, but we've got a clear path.

簡單介紹一下運行率。聽著，我們必須繼續努力恢復。正如你在 2023 年看到的那樣，它略有上升。今年大部分時間基本上是 4.9%，然後可能如我們所宣傳的那樣攀升至 50 億歐元，確實超出了我們的預期。但我們希望將其恢復到 5%，如果可能的話，低於 5%。這取決於我們的舉措的強有力執行，如果你願意的話，可以控制投資的節流，以便我們將它們與儲蓄的結晶保持一致。正如克里斯一開始所說的那樣，沒有驚喜。但我們覺得我們已經掌握了實現這一目標的工具，並且前面還有大量艱苦的工作要做，但我們已經有了一條清晰的道路。

I do want to say as a proviso, all of that -- one of the things we always found difficult in talking about absolute expense numbers is FX can move it around. So you have to keep that in mind. But in general, we're managing to that ex FX run rate.

我確實想說，作為附帶條件，所有這些——我們在談論絕對費用數字時總是發現困難的一件事是外匯可以移動它。所以你必須記住這一點。但總的來說，我們正在設法達到除外匯外的運行率。

Okay. So all else equal, EUR 5 billion is ideally the peak as we look out?

好的。那麼，在其他條件相同的情況下，50 億歐元是我們預期的理想高峰嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, I think so.

是的，我想是這樣。

The next question comes from Stuart Graham.

下一個問題來自斯圖爾特·格雷厄姆。

I had 2, please. The first is on return on tangible book value. As an aside, I didn't see the 10% group target for 25%, but I guess that's still in place. But my question was on the return on tangible in the Investment Bank. It was only 4% in 2023 after 8.4% in '22 and 9.4% in '21. So what's your target return on tangible book for the Investment Bank in '25, please?

我有2個，拜託。第一個是有形帳面價值回報。順便說一句，我沒有看到 10% 的群體目標變成 25%，但我想這仍然存在。但我的問題是關於投資銀行的有形回報。 2023 年僅 4%，22 年為 8.4%，21 年為 9.4%。那麼，您 25 年投資銀行的有形帳面目標報酬率是多少？

And the second is a geeky question on U.S. CRE. At the Q3 stage, you said there was just EUR 3 billion of U.S. CRE loans to be modified in the next 15 months, but you did EUR 2.3 million already in Q4. So what's your revised expectation for the next 12 months in terms of modifications? And do you have an update on the EUR 0.9 billion stressed loss estimate you gave at the Q3 stage, please?

第二個是關於美國 CRE 的極客問題。在第三季階段，您表示未來 15 個月內只有 30 億歐元的美國 CRE 貸款需要修改，但您在第四季已經修改了 230 萬歐元。那麼您對未來 12 個月的修改預期是多少呢？您是否有關於第三季階段 9 億歐元壓力損失估計的最新情況？

Thanks, Stuart. Look, the IB needs to be above 10% in 2025. Very simply, just -- it's a kind of law of averages that we have. And what gives us real comfort there is we've been going through some amount of transition as well in the mix of business where as we shift to more capital-light revenue sources, you should be able to see a strong lift. And the Investment Bank will also benefit from some of the cost-saving initiatives that are there in their allocated expenses. So we think their path to that 10%, well above 10% is reasonably clear.

謝謝，斯圖爾特。看，到 2025 年，IB 需要高於 10%。真正讓我們感到安慰的是，我們在業務組合方面也經歷了一定程度的轉型，當我們轉向更輕資本的收入來源時，您應該能夠看到強勁的提升。投資銀行也將受益於其分配費用中的一些成本節約措施。因此，我們認為他們達到 10%（遠高於 10%）的路徑相當明確。

On U.S. CRE, actually, I don't have a number to hand. The -- we are continuing to work through -- and I just want to make 1 distinction clear. There are maturities of and extensions of loans and then modifications. And so we think there's about EUR 10 billion of either extension or maturity events to work through this year, some of which will lead to modifications of various sorts and then applying the percentage that we show you of 4%, 4.5%, you'd expect some of that to obviously translate into credit loss provisions. So hopefully, that gives you a sense on both of those questions.

實際上，關於美國 CRE，我手邊沒有數字。我們正在繼續努力解決這個問題，我只想明確一個差異。貸款有到期日和延期，然後有修改。因此，我們認為今年有大約 100 億歐元的延期或到期事件需要處理，其中一些將導致各種修改，然後應用我們向您展示的 4%、4.5% 的百分比，您會發現預計其中一些顯然會轉化為信用損失準備金。希望這能讓您對這兩個問題有所了解。

Can I just add, Stuart, because your question on the Investment Bank is obviously important and rightly, James went to the composition of revenues and our investments we did in the capital-light business, which will obviously help. Secondly, our focus in bringing the cost down is on the infrastructure. And you said that.

斯圖爾特，我可以補充一下，因為你關於投資銀行的問題顯然很重要而且正確，詹姆斯談到了收入的構成以及我們在輕資本業務中所做的投資，這顯然會有所幫助。其次，我們降低成本的重點是基礎設施。你也這麼說過。

I would also like to mention that if you simply look at the market comparison of Deutsche Bank versus other peers and you look at revenues over RWA, the Investment Bank is doing actually already an excellent job. So it's now very much about the composition and the balance of revenues, which we are starting and started to address last year with our investments. And I can see that the O&A business is obviously coming back in '24 and the infrastructure cost. So I think the investment bank on the top line versus RWA is actually already doing an excellent job. And obviously, we expect that to be maintained. And last but not least, just for clarification, you indicated at the start it's a full confirmation. Yes, we clearly confirm the larger 10% RoTE for the year 2025. There is no doubt.

我還想提一下，如果你簡單地看一下德意志銀行與其他同業的市場比較，以及 RWA 的收入，你會發現投資銀行其實已經做得非常好了。因此，現在的重點是收入的組成和平衡，我們去年就開始透過投資來解決這個問題。我可以看到 O&A 業務和基礎設施成本在 24 年顯著回升。因此，我認為與 RWA 相比，收入最高的投資銀行實際上已經做得非常出色了。顯然，我們希望這一點能夠維持下去。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，為了澄清起見，您在開始時表示這是一個完整的確認。是的，我們明確確認了 2025 年更大的 10% RoTE。

The next question comes from Nicolas Payen from Kepler.

下一個問題來自開普勒的尼古拉斯·佩恩。

I have 2, please. The first one will be on the litigation write-back that you had, it was quite significant. So if you could have a bit more color on what is it related to, please? And the second question is coming back on your U.S. CRE CLP. It has doubled in Q4 versus Q3. So I'd like to know what kind of assumption you have baked in regarding U.S. CRE CLPs for 2024? And how does that fit into your cost of risk assumption of 25 to 30 bps for 2024?

我有2個，拜託。第一個是關於您的訴訟回寫，這非常重要。那麼，您能否詳細說明一下它與什麼相關？第二個問題是關於您的美國 CRE CLP。第四季比第三季翻了一番。所以我想知道您對 2024 年美國 CRE CLP 有何假設？這與您 2024 年 25 至 30 個基點的風險假設成本有何關係？

Sure. Nicolas, it's James. Happy to take the questions. Unfortunately, as you know, we don't give detailed information about what goes in and out of litigation provisions. Your point is, it's a large one, and that is fair. I can't say more really -- it's been -- it's a long-standing provision that we've held and now taken a view there isn't any more basis to retain it.

當然。尼古拉斯，我是詹姆斯。很高興接受提問。不幸的是，如您所知，我們沒有提供有關訴訟條款的進出內容的詳細資訊。你的觀點是，它很大，這是公平的。我真的不能說更多——它是——這是我們一直持有的一項長期規定，現在認為沒有任何基礎來保留它。

On CRE, look, I could imagine that the next couple of quarters Q1, Q2 could remain elevated. But I can also -- and my own expectation is that it would begin to sort of ameliorate towards the second half of the year and into 2025. You shouldn't be surprised if it were in line with '23 as sort of a baseline expectation. And in an ideal world, it might be a little bit better than '23.

在 CRE 方面，我可以想像接下來的幾季第一季、第二季可能會保持在高水準。但我也可以 - 我自己的預期是，到今年下半年和 2025 年，情況會開始有所改善。在理想的情況下，它可能會比 23 年好一點。

We will publish a revised stress scenario in our annual report. I'd say that's probably deteriorated a little bit given the circumstances we see in the marketplace. And as you can see, cumulatively, we're tracking closer to the level that we laid out in our Q2 and Q3 reporting.

我們將在年度報告中發布修訂後的壓力情境。我想說，考慮到我們在市場上看到的情況，情況可能會惡化。正如您所看到的，我們正在逐步接近第二季和第三季報告中規定的水平。

That said, and I think it's important to say, as you think about our forward guidance, if you take out the EUR 450 million across the various portfolios that we booked in commercial real estate in '23 and take that out of the numbers, you can see a CLP level that is running actually in a relatively normalized range. And that's in a year in which we actually incurred some losses, particularly in the private bank that would -- that went beyond what we would normally see in the Private Bank. You'll recall a couple of idiosyncratic cases in the first quarter. And then in the third and fourth quarter, some amount of what I'd call excess provisioning associated with the operational backlog issue.

也就是說，我認為重要的是，當你考慮我們的前瞻性指引時，如果你從我們在23 年在商業房地產中預訂的各種投資組合中取出4.5 億歐元，並將其從數字中取出，你會發現可以看到實際運行在相對正常範圍內的 CLP 水平。那一年我們實際上遭受了一些損失，特別是在私人銀行，這超出了我們通常在私人銀行看到的損失。您會記得第一季的幾個特殊案例。然後在第三和第四季度，一些我所說的與營運積壓問題相關的過度配置。

So we think that all gives us confidence that as this cycle in commercial real estate abates over the next 6 quarters, you should see a much more normalized credit loss provision emerge.

因此，我們認為，所有這些都讓我們有信心，隨著商業房地產的這一周期在未來 6 個季度減弱，您應該會看到更加規範化的信用損失準備金的出現。

Our next question is from Anke Reingen from RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Anke Reingen。

Just 2 small number of questions. The first is just to clarify on the payment from the Resolution Fund, which didn't get in Q4, that's not included in any of your commentary about costs, '24, '25. And maybe you can give us a bit of an indication about the magnitude. And then lastly, sorry, just the numbers question. Given the many moving parts, can you help us a bit with your tax rate guidance?

只有 2 個小問題。第一個只是澄清決議基金的付款，該資金沒有在第四季度獲得，這沒有包含在您關於成本的任何評論中，'24，'25。也許你可以給我們一些關於其規模的指示。最後，抱歉，只是數字問題。鑑於存在許多變動因素，您能否在稅率指導方面為我們提供一些幫助？

Anke, thank you for your question. Yes, we -- on the (foreign language), that's the German word for the payment from the German Resolution Fund, we clearly expected the repayment into the banks because we feel from a legal analysis that this is our money. We also made various proposals to the German government together, by the way, with all banks, the saving banks, the cooperative banks and the private banks, how we actually can use that money nicely in order to fund the transformation in Germany.

安克，謝謝你的提問。是的，我們——在（外語）上，這是德國處置基金付款的德語單詞，我們明確期望償還到銀行，因為我們從法律分析中感覺到這是我們的錢。順便說一句，我們也與所有銀行、儲蓄銀行、合作銀行和私人銀行一起向德國政府提出了各種建議，我們實際上如何更好地利用這些錢來為德國的轉型提供資金。

It seems to be that the German government is going another route. And obviously, we need to review that from all kind of perspectives as you can imagine. But to your clear question for the guidance of '24 and '25, this is not part of our plan, i.e., there is no cost plan where this is included because for the time being, we assume that this is not coming our way, but of course, we need to review it from a legal point of view.

德國政府似乎正在走另一條路。顯然，我們需要從你能想像的各種角度來審視這一點。但對於您關於「24」和「25」指導的明確問題，這不是我們計劃的一部分，即沒有包含此內容的成本計劃，因為目前我們認為這不會出現在我們的計劃中，但當然，我們需要從法律的角度進行審查。

Or capital plan for that matter. And then tax, I would use a 30% rate in your modeling for '24. Obviously, always uncertainties and things that can change -- once that can change. One thing that we are now at the end of is the DTA valuation adjustments. We've essentially written back the tax attributes in actually 3 jurisdictions now in the United States, the U.K. and Italy. And therefore, where you should see a normalized level of taxation in the coming periods.

或與此相關的資本計劃。然後徵稅，我會在你的 24 年模型中使用 30% 的稅率。顯然，總是存在著不確定性和可能改變的事情——一旦可以改變。我們現在即將結束的一件事是 DTA 估值調整。我們基本上已經回寫了美國、英國和義大利這三個司法管轄區的稅收屬性。因此，您應該在未來一段時間內看到正常化的稅收水準。

Next question comes from Giulia Aurora from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Giulia Aurora。

Thank you for all the new disclosure, in particular on NII and costs. I want to ask you, however, a question on capital. Specifically, there have been some headlines on potential M&A, which is something that you also looked at domestic M&A a few years ago. But that seems to be at odds with what we hear today, your big commitment to capital distribution. So how do we square these 2 and what would take you to pursue some big M&A? So that's the first question.

感謝您提供所有新的揭露，特別是關於 NII 和成本的揭露。不過，我想問你一個關於資本的問題。具體來說，有一些關於潛在併購的頭條新聞，這也是您幾年前關注的國內併購的內容。但這似乎與我們今天聽到的，即你們對資本分配的重大承諾不一致。那麼，我們如何將這兩者結合起來，以及什麼會帶您進行一些大型併購？這是第一個問題。

And then the second question is more of a numbers question. Sorry, going back to the costs again. I hear a lot of conviction on EUR 20 billion by '25 underlying and one-off reducing. So what is the sort of run rate for restructuring costs? Do you expect it to be EUR 400 million in '24 and then down to EUR 200 million? And yes, anything or comment on the potential one-offs?

第二個問題更多的是一個數字問題。抱歉，再次回到成本。我聽到很多人對 25 年基礎設施和一次性削減 200 億歐元的信心。那麼重組成本的運作率是多少呢？您預計 24 年會達到 4 億歐元，然後降至 2 億歐元嗎？是的，對潛在的一次性事件有何評論或評論？

Well, let me start, and I'll have a quick thing to say, yes, it is at odds and what you hear from us is a commitment to distribution.

好吧，讓我開始，我要快速地說，是的，這是不一致的，你從我們那裡聽到的是對發行的承諾。

And on costs, it's hard to say with perfect accuracy what it is that these litigation and restructuring severance. Obviously, the latter is more in our control. If I look to 2025, I think EUR 400 million collectively for the 2 would be a reasonable kind of planning assumption. And we'd like to do better than that.

在成本方面，很難完全準確地說出這些訴訟和重組遣散費是什麼。顯然，後者更在我們的掌控之中。如果我展望 2025 年，我認為 2 項合計 4 億歐元將是一個合理的規劃假設。我們希望做得更好。

Clearly, one of the things that we're working to do is put remaining restructuring items behind us now in 2024. I've given you an estimate of what that looks like. And as I said earlier, one does -- looking at our litigation sort of portfolio, one does feel that we're -- it's changing in terms of kind of number and size of events. It's never a perfect forecast, but it's certainly something that we're hoping to work down to a more normalized level. So I'll give you EUR 300 million to EUR 400 million is probably a good planning assumption across the two.

顯然，我們正在努力做的事情之一就是在 2024 年將剩餘的重組項目拋在腦後。正如我之前所說，人們確實 - 看看我們的訴訟組合，人們確實感覺到我們 - 在事件的數量和規模方面正在發生變化。這從來都不是一個完美的預測，但我們確實希望將其降低到更正常化的水平。所以我給你 3 億歐元到 4 億歐元可能是一個很好的規劃假設。

I just want to emphasize that what James said on the M&A. There is nothing we can do about headlines. We focus on ourselves and distribution to shareholders is at the heart what we are doing.

我只是想強調一下詹姆斯關於併購的言論。對於頭條新聞我們無能為力。我們專注於自己，分配給股東是我們所做工作的核心。

Next question comes from Jeremy Sigee from BNP. Please go ahead.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Jeremy Sigee。請繼續。

Just a couple of number detail things, please. Firstly, on capital returns. Can you just clarify what has been deducted from capital already? Is it the EUR 0.45 and the EUR 675 million buyback but no extra, have those both been deducted? And linked to that, is the constraint when you talk about the 50% payout for the returns done over the course of this year and in particular, in the second half of this year, is the constraint 50% of this year's earnings 2024 or constraint being 50% of last year's earnings, which a lot of it was accrued out of?

請提供一些具體的數字。首先，關於資本回報。您能澄清一下已經從資本中扣除了什麼嗎？是0.45歐元和6.75億歐元的回購，但沒有額外的，這兩個都被扣除了嗎？與此相關的是，當您談論今年期間完成的回報的 50% 支付時，特別是在今年下半年，是今年 2024 年收益的 50% 的約束或約束去年收入的50%，其中大部分是從哪來的？

And then the last question was just on the costs. I know we talked a lot about it, but in the divisions both the IB and the Corporate Bank were about EUR 100 million heavier in the quarter. And I wasn't very clear. I wonder if you could just talk a bit more about how much of that was specific items or sort of year-end extra? And how much of that falls away, that would be very helpful.

最後一個問題只是關於成本。我知道我們對此談了很多，但在本季度，IB 和企業銀行的部門都增加了約 1 億歐元。而且我也不是很清楚。我想知道您是否可以多談談其中有多少是特定項目或年終額外費用？其中有多少會消失，這將非常有幫助。

Sure, Jeremy. I think I got both of your questions, but feel free to follow up. Look, we would like to stick to the 50%. We think that's prudent and ideally not go beyond. By putting out the dividend guidance that we have, I think the indication is management is confident of its ability to grow earnings from here.

當然，傑里米。我想我已經回答了你的兩個問題，但請隨時跟進。看，我們想堅持 50%。我們認為這是謹慎的做法，最好不要超越。透過發布我們現有的股息指導，我認為這表明管理層對其增加收益的能力充滿信心。

If you think about 50% of our net income to common for 2023. That actually gives us still a fair amount of room against the EUR 1.6 billion we've talked about today. The -- to your question about what is, if you like, disregarded in the ratio based on interim profit recognition. The answer is the EUR 900 million, the EUR 0.45 is disregarded in the December ratio. The EUR 675 million is not removed from that. The EUR 675 million, we see as part of the discretionary program rather than the 50% payout ratio assumption, which in essence, wasn't in place for 2020 in respect of 2023. That EUR 675 million would represent about 20 basis points. And so in the rounding, we'd be at 13.5%, maybe 13.6% pro forma for that second buyback.

如果你考慮到 2023 年我們淨收入的 50% 是普通的。對於你的問題，如果你願意的話，在基於中期利潤確認的比率中忽略什麼。答案是 9 億歐元，12 月比率中忽略了 0.45 歐元。 6.75 億歐元並未從中扣除。我們將6.75 億歐元視為酌情計畫的一部分，而不是50% 支付率假設的一部分，從本質上講，2020 年相對於2023 年而言，這一假設並不適用。 20 個基點。因此，在四捨五入中，第二次回購的預期利率為 13.5%，甚至可能為 13.6%。

In IB and CB costs, I do want to just remind that CB took the lion's share of the FDIC assessment. So there's noise this quarter on that as well as last year in the fourth quarter, there was a, what I'll call a true-up in the internal service cost allocations. So that's been a bigger feature for CB than the others. And in IB, of course, we've -- that's seen a fair amount of the investment in 2023, including obviously, Numis in the fourth quarter. So noise in both. And as we strip away now in Q1, you should see what I'll call as a cleaner run rate in both of those businesses.

在 IB 和 CB 成本中，我想提醒一下，CB 在 FDIC 評估中佔據了最大份額。因此，本季以及去年第四季都存在噪音，我稱之為內部服務成本分配的調整。所以這對 CB 來說是比其他人更重要的特徵。當然，在 IB 方面，我們在 2023 年進行了大量投資，顯然包括第四季度的 Numis。兩者都有噪音。當我們現在在第一季剝離時，您應該會看到我所說的這兩項業務的更清潔運行率。

And just to be clear, both of those things are in the adjusted costs. So the FDIC is -- in the adjusted costs, it's not been stripped out as one-off?

需要明確的是，這兩件事都包含在調整後的成本中。那麼 FDIC 是－在調整後的成本中，它並沒有被視為一次性的？

Yes. FDIC was not stripped out as one-off. So the only thing that is of all of that, the only thing that's not in adjusted cost is the Numis impairment.

是的。 FDIC 並不是一次性被剔除的。因此，所有這些中唯一不包含在調整成本中的是 Numis 減損。

Next question is from Andrew Coombs from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的安德魯·庫姆斯。

Two questions, please. Firstly, thank you for the net interest income walk, in the guidance for the decline that you gave for 2024, you talked about moving to a steady state level on deposit pricing. Perhaps you could just elaborate there on what your steady state deposit beta assumption is? I think your peers are at 40%, but perhaps you could elaborate there.

請教兩個問題。首先，感謝您對淨利息收入的關注，在您給出的 2024 年下降指導中，您談到了存款定價轉向穩態水平。也許您可以詳細說明您的穩態存款貝塔假設是什麼？我認為你的同行的比例是 40%，但也許你可以詳細說明一下。

Secondly, coming back to the non-net interest income growth, it looks like you're targeting EUR 1.6 billion a year in both '24 and '25, 9% to 10%. It's a very healthy run rate that you're guiding to. Within that, you've mentioned the 4 different components. So fixed income, origination advisory, wealth and asset management, and you said that origination advisory is the biggest component in that, but perhaps I could ask 2 things. Number one, can you split out the growth between those 4? And secondly, how much of it is driven by industry wallet versus how much is market share gains?

其次，回到非淨利息收入成長，看起來你們的目標是在 24 年和 25 年每年達到 16 億歐元，即 9% 到 10%。您所引導的運行速度非常健康。其中，您提到了 4 個不同的組件。固定收益、發起諮詢、財富和資產管理，你說發起諮詢是其中最大的部分，但也許我可以問兩件事。第一，你能把這 4 者之間的成長分開嗎？其次，其中有多少是由產業錢包推動的，有多少是市場佔有率的成長？

So I'll speak to the beta. Look, we've sort of made a policy decision, if you like, not to talk about betas in specific terms externally. What we have seen, and I think we've talked about this before, our portfolios are quite varied. And by that, I mean, the deposit portfolio breaks out between Private Bank and Corporate Bank. And then in each of those businesses really euros and dollars. And then, of course, there is a dynamic around what is site and what is term.

所以我會談談測試版。聽著，如果你願意的話，我們已經做出了一項政策決定，不在外部以特定術語談論貝塔。我們所看到的，而且我想我們之前已經討論過這一點，我們的投資組合非常多樣化。我的意思是，存款組合在私人銀行和企業銀行之間爆發。然後在每項業務中都是歐元和美元。當然，關於什麼是網站和什麼是術語存在著動態變化。

So there's different sort of behaviors across those things. What we are thinking could happen is that with the expectation of the market now that policy rates will start to go down that the long-term interest rates have gone down, you may see a peak in terms of pass-through or we may have, in fact, seen a peak in terms of pass-through because now banks are reacting and our clients are reacting to a changed interest rate environment. And hence, we could. I can't say this with certainty but we could be near a peak of the pass-through associated with the rate increase cycle we've just been through, and now the question will flip to how sticky will customer rates be on the way down. So a completely different dynamic.

所以這些事情有不同類型的行為。我們認為可能發生的情況是，隨著市場預期政策利率將開始下降，長期利率已經下降，你可能會看到傳導率達到峰值，或者我們可能會看到，事實上，在傳遞方面看到了峰值，因為現在銀行正在做出反應，我們的客戶正在對變化的利率環境做出反應。因此，我們可以。我不能肯定地說，但我們可能已經接近與我們剛剛經歷的利率上漲週期相關的傳遞峰值，現在的問題將轉向客戶利率在下降過程中的黏性有多大。這是一個完全不同的動態。

As I've said, our -- and we said this in Q3, and I guess I'd reiterate this, our beta assumptions assume a continued convergence towards the models as though the trend was still upwards, although there's a possibility, as I say, that we've peaked and may run flat for a period of time before things start to move down. So an interesting dynamic around the betas.

正如我所說，我們在第三季度說過這一點，我想我會重申這一點，我們的貝塔假設假設模型持續收斂，就好像趨勢仍然向上一樣，儘管有可能，因為我比如說，我們已經達到了頂峰，並且在情況開始下降之前可能會在一段時間內保持平穩。圍繞著測試版的一個有趣的動態。

In terms of the split, I don't want to go into too much detail, but I would say relatively evenly split between Private Bank, Corporate Bank and the fixed income and currencies business. So producing, let's just say, about half of the rise, if I would put it in rough terms and about the other half in O&A. And as I've mentioned, we see O&A as a recovery rather than a growth from a kind of a steady-state level. And in that number, you might see 2/3 of it be the market and 1/3 be market share. But again, those are very rough estimates that we're sort of looking at in our planning. Lots of things can move. But I hope what you take away from that is how broad-based the sources that we're looking at are.

在劃分方面，我不想透露太多細節，但我想說私人銀行、企業銀行以及固定收益和貨幣業務之間的劃分相對均勻。因此，如果我粗略地說的話，我們可以說，大約一半的成長來自 O&A，而另一半則來自 O&A。正如我所提到的，我們將 O&A 視為一種復甦，而不是某種穩態水平的增長。在這個數字中，您可能會看到其中 2/3 是市場，1/3 是市場份額。但同樣，這些都是我們在計劃中考慮的非常粗略的估計。很多東西都是可以動的。但我希望你能從中了解到我們正在尋找的來源是多麼廣泛。

And as we've talked about, much of the revenue base becoming predictable around input drivers and output revenues that it produces, alongside, as we show you now, a relatively predictable net interest income stream, including incidentally, the breakout now of what we're calling the banking book businesses, which include the financing in FIC. So Hopefully, that's some good color on what we're seeing and is driving the raised guidance.

正如我們所討論的，大部分收入基礎圍繞其產生的投入驅動因素和產出收入變得可預測，同時，正如我們現在向您展示的那樣，相對可預測的淨利息收入流，順便說一句，包括我們現在的突破我們稱之為銀行簿記業務，其中包括 FIC 融資。希望這對我們所看到的情況有一些好的影響，並推動提高指導方針。

Next question is from Andrew Lim.

下一個問題來自 Andrew Lim。

Firstly, on that non-NII guidance that you've lifted does seem a large part of that is based on self-help and investments. But I guess some part also based on market growth. So I guess my question here is what's your assumption for GDP growth back in your guidance here? And in particular, for Germany.

首先，您提出的非 NII 指導似乎很大一部分是基於自助和投資。但我猜有些部分也是基於市場成長。所以我想我的問題是，您在指導中對 GDP 成長的假設是什麼？尤其是對於德國來說。

And then my second question is back on your cost guidance. You're guiding to EUR 5 billion for 1Q, and I guess, about EUR 20 billion for the year. But typically, you've had about EUR 5.3 billion, EUR 5.4 billion for the 1Q and then a bit less than EUR 5 billion for the remaining quarters to reflect the seasonality of stronger revenues in the first quarter. So just wondering how you're thinking about and now what's happening with the seasonality through the year?

然後我的第二個問題又回到了你們的成本指引。您預計第一季的營收為 50 億歐元，我猜全年約為 200 億歐元。但通常情況下，第一季的營收約為 53 億歐元、54 億歐元，其餘季度的營收略低於 50 億歐元，以反映第一季營收強勁的季節性。那麼，只是想知道您如何看待一年中的​​季節性變化？

Yes. So Andrew, thanks for the questions. So the bigger driver of the Q1 numbers has been the bank levy. And we've had to go through the adjustment sort of hoops on that. And we think it was still to be finalized and determined, but we think that noise will be removed. And also, ironically, we've had to book some bank levy in Q4, because of the way the dynamic works between the U.K. and the European bank levies. So in a sense, brought forward some bank levy from 2024 into '23. You're right that there is some seasonality, especially with variable compensation bookings, but on a relative basis to a big number like EUR 5 billion, and that is not a massive driver but something we look at and manage carefully given the importance of it to our business.

是的。安德魯，謝謝你的提問。因此，第一季數據的更大推動力是銀行稅。我們必須對此進行一些調整。我們認為它仍有待最終確定，但我們認為噪音將會被消除。而且，諷刺的是，由於英國和歐洲銀行稅之間的動態運作方式，我們不得不在第四季度徵收一些銀行稅。因此，從某種意義上說，將一些銀行稅從 2024 年提前到了 23 年。你說得對，確實存在一些季節性，特別是可變補償預訂，但相對於50 億歐元這樣的大數字來說，這並不是一個巨大的驅動因素，但考慮到它的重要性，我們會仔細觀察和管理。

On the assumptions of GDP growth, we just use a consensus view, and that consensus view, obviously already reflects pretty muted GDP growth performance, especially in Germany. So 0, slightly negative, relatively muted in Europe. But in the United States and Asia, probably assumptions that right now are a little bit behind what the consensus views.

關於 GDP 成長的假設，我們只是使用共識觀點，而這種共識觀點顯然已經反映了相當溫和的 GDP 成長表現，尤其是在德國。所以 0，略顯負面，在歐洲相對溫和。但在美國和亞洲，目前的假設可能有點落後於共識的看法。

To be fair, it's -- GDP isn't necessarily the main driver of the engines that we're talking about of the fee and commission income growth. I'd say it's more activity. And by activity, I mean loan fees on trade finance, which has been relatively muted. I mean transactions in terms of issuance where we also, in our trust and agency securities get business, get fees on custody and also transfer agency and the like. So it is activity levels that really are the driver. And they cohere more just with corporate and household confidence than specifically GDP growth assumptions.

公平地說，GDP 不一定是我們所謂的手續費及佣金收入成長引擎的主要驅動力。我想說的是更多的活動。我所說的活動是指貿易融資的貸款費用，該費用相對較低。我指的是發行方面的交易，我們還在信託和代理證券中獲得業務，收取託管費以及轉讓代理費等。因此，活動水平才是真正的驅動因素。而且它們更符合企業和家庭的信心，而不是特定的 GDP 成長假設。

Next question is from Máté Nemes from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Mätä Nemes。

Well done on the results there. A couple of questions from my side. First, as a followup, you mentioned that the non-NII revenue growth could be perhaps coming, maybe 2/3 from market growth and 1/3 from market share growth. Looking at this and the EUR 32 billion implied revenue target by '25, could you give us a sense of what degree of flexibility do you see on the cost side should perhaps some disappointment happen maybe from the market growth side? What levers do you have to pull should there be a disappointment on revenues because clearly, you're doing a lot to hit that EUR 20 billion adjusted cost target. That's the first question.

那裡的結果做得很好。我這邊有幾個問題。首先，作為後續，您提到非 NII 收入成長可能即將到來，可能 2/3 來自市場成長，1/3 來自市場佔有率成長。看看這個以及 25 年 320 億歐元的隱含收入目標，您能否讓我們了解一下，如果市場成長方面出現一些令人失望的情況，您認為成本方面的靈活性有多大？如果收入令人失望，您必須採取哪些措施，因為很明顯，您正在努力實現 200 億歐元的調整後成本目標。這是第一個問題。

The second one is on capital management and specifically M&A. I think we've heard you loud and clear that you're focused on distribution mainly but you're also looking at perhaps accelerating growth in some areas and investment in the divisions. Do you see scope for perhaps bolt-on acquisitions along the lines of Numis here and there? And if that's the case, where do you see opportunities you can accelerate the organic growth? And what would be your criteria?

第二個是關於資本管理，特別是併購。我想我們已經清楚地聽到您的聲音，您主要專注於分銷，但您也在考慮加速某些領域的成長以及對各個部門的投資。您是否認為有可能像 Numis 一樣進行補強收購？如果是這樣的話，您在哪裡看到可以加速有機成長的機會？你的標準是什麼？

Thank you. Let me start with the last one. One cannot exclude that. And if there is an opportunity in one of our core businesses that we have an add-on acquisition, which makes sense from the content point of view, from a regional point of view, from a client point of view, and it fits into our culture, I wouldn't exclude that, but it's not the main focus of our strategy. And when we came to the previous questions and the headlines, I was referring to, in particular, the bigger M&As, which is not our priority. But if we would have an opportunity, I would always say we would potentially look at it. But again, we feel that with the existing platform we have, with the existing franchise we have, we are really on a good path to achieve the goals, be it on the revenue side or on the cost side.

謝謝。讓我從最後一個開始。人們不能排除這一點。如果我們的核心業務之一有機會進行附加收購，那麼從內容的角度、從區域的角度、從客戶的角度來看，這都是有意義的，並且它符合我們的需求。排除這一點，但這不是我們策略的主要焦點。當我們談到之前的問題和頭條新聞時，我特別指的是更大的併購，這不是我們的首要任務。但如果我們有機會，我總是會說我們可能會考慮一下。但我們再次認為，憑藉我們現有的平台、現有的特許經營權，我們確實走在實現目標的良好道路上，無論是在收入方面還是在成本方面。

I like your questions on the cost side with regard to the flexibility. Yes, we have clearly an ambitious road on the non-NII. But I can see already how in particular in the O&A business our investments, both in Numis, by the way, which is running really well, but also the hiring of the people, which we have done is adding in terms of mandates and also revenues also when I look now at Q1.

我喜歡你在成本和靈活性方面提出的問題。是的，我們在非國家資訊基礎設施方面顯然有一條雄心勃勃的道路。但我已經可以看到，特別是在 O&A 業務中，我們在 Numis 的投資運作得非常好，而且我們所做的人員招聘也在任務和收入方面有所增加當我現在看第一季度時也是如此。

But clearly, if it's not coming, we have a dynamic process and that dynamic process is that the business has to explain to the CFO, but also to me, what they are doing if the revenues are not coming through. Now to be very honest, we build it for the long term. And I think it's the right decision for us to expand in that business. But clearly, if revenues would lag, then obviously, you have various levers be it in that area also variable comp, we have other investments, which are part of our plan for those businesses, which we can reduce. In this regard, we would proactively obviously countermeasure.

但顯然，如果它沒有到來，我們有一個動態流程，這個動態流程是企業必須向財務長解釋，還要向我解釋，如果收入沒有實現，他們會做什麼。老實說，我們是為了長期發展而打造它。我認為擴大該業務對我們來說是正確的決定。但顯然，如果收入滯後，那麼顯然，你在該領域有各種槓桿，也有可變的補償，我們還有其他投資，這是我們對這些業務的計劃的一部分，我們可以減少這些投資。對此，我們會積極採取明顯的應對措施。

And Máté, just a couple of things. I may have just cleaned up a statement of the market share versus market growth. First of all, the focus there was on Origination & Advisory, and I may have inverted -- what I meant to say is 2/3, we think, comes from market and 1/3 from market share growth. But again, those are estimates. I guess the one other thing just to point out on your capital question, Slide 17 of the deck. What we tried to indicate is in the last 25% block there of how we would apply the capital is sort of stuff. It is whatever we're not able to offset of CRR3 through the -- through our capital management measures, then either ratio build, more distribution would be built into that and also some leeway to pursue bolt-on acquisitions or have the capital impact of bolt-on acquisitions if we find the right opportunities.

還有 Mâtâ©，只是幾件事。我可能剛剛整理了一份關於市場佔有率與市場成長的聲明。首先，重點是發起和諮詢，我可能顛倒了——我們認為，我的意思是 2/3 來自市場，1/3 來自市場份額成長。但同樣，這些只是估計。我想另一件事只是為了指出你的基本問題，即投影片 17。我們試圖在最後 25% 的區塊中表明我們將如何應用資本之類的東西。這是我們無法透過我們的資本管理措施抵消 CRR3 的任何事情，然後要么建立比率，要么建立更多的分配，並且還有一些餘地來進行補強收購或產生資本影響如果我們找到合適的機會，就會進行補強收購。

We've talked in the past what those opportunities typically look like. We've been clear that DWS, the asset management business has been seeking opportunities, and we would put capital to work there. we've looked at other opportunities over time. But we -- I guess the thing to point to is just we would be disciplined about targeting investment opportunities that are relatively speaking, capital-light and strategically on point as Numis was with our Global House Bank strategy.

我們過去已經討論過這些機會通常是什麼樣子。我們已經明確表示，資產管理業務 DWS 一直在尋找機會，我們將向那裡投入資金。隨著時間的推移，我們一直在尋找其他機會。但我們——我想指出的是，我們會嚴格瞄準相對而言、資本較少且戰略上切合實際的投資機會，就像努米斯在我們的全球房屋銀行戰略中所做的那樣。

That was our last question for today, which concludes our Q&A session. I would like to turn the conference back to Ioana for any closing comments.

這是我們今天的最後一個問題，我們的問答環節就此結束。我想將會議轉回艾歐納以徵求結束意見。

Thank you, and thank you for joining us today and for your questions. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact the Investor Relations team. And with that, we look forward to speaking to you at our first quarter results.

謝謝您，也謝謝您今天加入我們並提出問題。如果您還有任何疑問，請隨時聯繫投資者關係團隊。因此，我們期待在第一季的業績中與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you very much for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束，你們可以掛斷電話了。非常感謝您的加入，祝您有個愉快的一天。再見。