Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Q4 2024 fixed income conference call and live webcast.

女士們，先生們，歡迎參加 2024 年第四季固定收益電話會議和現場網路直播。

I'm Sergio, the Chorus Call operator.

我是塞爾吉奧 (Sergio)，Chorus Call 的接線員。

(Operator Instructions) And the conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）會議正在錄音。

(Operator Instructions) The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast.

（操作員指示）會議不得錄製以供出版或廣播。

At this time, it's my pleasure to turn over to Philip Teuchner.

現在，我很高興將發言權交給 Philip Teuchner。

Philip?

菲利普？

Good afternoon or good morning, and thank you all for joining us today.

下午好或早安，感謝大家今天的參加。

On the call, our Group Treasurer, Richard Stewart, will take us through some fixed income-specific topics.

在電話會議上，我們的集團財務主管理查德·斯圖爾特 (Richard Stewart) 將帶我們討論一些固定收益特定主題。

For the subsequent Q&A session, we also have our CFO, James von Moltke, with us to answer your questions.

在隨後的問答環節，我們的財務長 James von Moltke 也會出席並回答您的問題。

The slides that accompany the topics are available for download from our website at db.com. After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions.

與主題相關的幻燈片可以從我們的網站 db.com 下載。演示結束後，我們將很樂意回答您的提問。

Before we get started, I just want to remind you that the presentation may contain forward-looking statements, which may not develop as we currently expect.

在我們開始之前，我只想提醒您，簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能不會按照我們目前預期的方式發展。

Therefore, please take note of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials.

因此，請注意我們材料末尾的預防警告。

With that, let me hand over to Richard.

現在，讓我把麥克風交給理查。

Thank you, Philip, and welcome from me. 2024 was a vital transition year for us.

謝謝你，菲利普，我向你表示歡迎。 2024 年對我們來說是至關重要的過渡年。

We have moved past a number of legacy items, absorbing as a series of non-operational costs, predominantly litigation matters, which have masked the underlying strength of our business.

我們已經擺脫了許多遺留問題，吸收了一系列非營運成本，主要是訴訟事項，這些成本掩蓋了我們業務的潛在實力。

However, we are now set for a clean and significantly more profitable year in 2025 with the foundation now built for further improvements in the years beyond.

然而，我們現在已經為 2025 年做好了準備，這將是一個乾淨、利潤顯著提高的一年，我們也為未來幾年的進一步改善打下了基礎。

Let me discuss our operating momentum on slide 2.

讓我在第二張投影片上討論一下我們的營運動能。

We increased 2024 pre-provision profit by 19% compared to 2023, if adjusted for three specific litigation items as well as the goodwill impairment in 2023.

如果根據三個特定訴訟項目以及 2023 年的商譽減損進行調整，我們將 2024 年的撥備前利潤較 2023 年增加 19%。

The specific litigation items in '24 comprised of post-take litigation matter, elevated provisions for Polish FX mortgages and the derecognition of the reimbursement asset for the RushRusChemAlliance litigation matter.

'24 年的具體訴訟事項包括收購後訴訟事項、波蘭外匯抵押貸款的撥備增加以及 RushRusChemAlliance 訴訟事項的償付資產的終止確認。

Growth was driven by both revenue momentum and cost discipline.

成長的動力來自於收入成長動能和成本控制。

Revenues grew by 4% year-on-year with around 75% coming from more predictable revenue streams.

營收年增 4%，其中約 75% 來自更可預測的收入來源。

Adjusted costs decreased 1% year-on-year to EUR20.4 billion or EUR20.2 billion, excluding the preguided real estate measures at a UK bank that we trued-up in the fourth quarter.

調整後成本年減 1% 至 204 億歐元，若不包括我們在第四季度調整的英國銀行的預先指引的房地產措施，則為 202 億歐元。

Excluding these items, we delivered four quarters of adjusted costs of around EUR5 billion, in line with our plan.

除這些項目外，我們四個季度的調整後成本約為 50 億歐元，符合我們的計劃。

Let's now look at the momentum we have created in each of our businesses against the goals set in 2022 on slide 3.

現在讓我們來看看我們在每個業務中創造的勢頭，以實現幻燈片 3 中設定的 2022 年目標。

At our Investor Day in March 2022, we set ambitious objectives for 2025.

在 2022 年 3 月的投資者日上，我們為 2025 年設定了雄心勃勃的目標。

With 12 months to go, our business growth-focused strategies are delivering strong results against these objectives.

在接下來的 12 個月裡，我們以業務成長為重點的策略正在為實現這些目標取得強勁成果。

The corporate bank remains at the core of the Deutsche Bank franchise since our transformation, and we have further enhanced its value proposition through a strengthened client franchise and investments in technology, supported by our global network.

自轉型以來，企業銀行一直是德意志銀行特許經營的核心，並且透過加強客戶特許經營和技術投資，並在全球網路的支持下，我們進一步提升了其價值主張。

The division outperformed its revenue growth ambitions despite normalizing interest rates and delivered a return on tangible equity of 13% in 2024, 3 times its 2021 level.

儘管利率正常化，該部門仍超額完成了其收入成長目標，並在 2024 年實現了 13% 的有形股本回報率，是 2021 年水準的三倍。

The investment bank is outperforming its revenue growth target and delivered an RoTE of 9% in 2024, cementing its position as a leading investment bank.

該投資銀行超額完成了其收入成長目標，並在 2024 年實現了 9% 的 RoTE，鞏固了其作為領先投資銀行的地位。

In fixed income & currencies, we have built strong market share and demonstrated sustained growth in financing, which is up 12% year-on-year in 2024.

在固定收益和貨幣方面，我們建立了強大的市場份額，並實現了融資的持續成長，2024 年年增 12%。

We achieved significant year-on-year growth of over 60% in O&A in 2024 through consumable market share increases and a growing fee pool.

透過消耗品市場份額的增加和費用池的不斷擴大，我們在 2024 年的 O&A 實現了同比增長超過 60%。

The private bank continues to leverage its leading market position with net inflows of EUR29 billion, supporting noninterest revenue growth of 5% last year, in line with our strategy, where division grew in line with target since 2021.

該私人銀行繼續利用其領先的市場地位，淨流入資金達 290 億歐元，支持去年非利息收入增長 5%，這符合我們的戰略，該部門自 2021 年以來一直按照目標增長。

Asset management again grew assets under management in 2024 by EUR115 billion and surpassed EUR1 trillion for the first time reached by net inflows of EUR42 billion into passive investments.

2024 年，資產管理的資產管理規模再次成長 1,150 億歐元，首次超過 1 兆歐元，被動投資淨流入 420 億歐元。

Let me now turn to the question why we feel confident in reaching our 2025 revenue growth ambitions on slide 4.

現在，讓我來回答為什麼我們對實現第 4 張投影片中提出的 2025 年營收成長目標充滿信心。

Since 2021, we have delivered a compound annual growth rate of 5.8%, in line with our upgraded target range.

自 2021 年以來，我們實現了 5.8% 的複合年增長率，符合我們上調後的目標範圍。

In 2025, we expect continued franchise momentum at our capital-light businesses to drive further growth supported by our investments, reaching the revenue CAGR to around 5.9% with a clear road map towards our 2025 target.

到 2025 年，我們預計輕資本業務的特許經營勢頭將繼續保持，並在投資的支持下推動進一步增長，收入複合年增長率達到 5.9% 左右，並為實現 2025 年目標制定了明確的路線圖。

In the corporate bank, we expect revenues to grow by around 5.5% or EUR400 million largely from scaling of commissions and fee income, predominantly in trade finance and fee-based institutional business.

在企業銀行方面，我們預計收入將成長約 5.5% 或 4 億歐元，主要來自佣金和費用收入的增加，主要是貿易融資和收費型機構業務。

Resilient net interest income will provide further support.

強勁的淨利息收入將提供進一步的支持。

Investment bank revenues are expected to grow by around 8% as we see encouraging trends in the market, good levels of corporate activity and confidence, solid financing conditions and pent-up private equity demand.

由於我們看到市場趨勢令人鼓舞、企業活動和信心水平良好、融資條件穩健以及私募股權需求被壓抑，投資銀行收入預計將增長 8% 左右。

In the private bank, we expect revenue growth of around EUR400 million or 4% driven by higher NII from continued business volume growth and the deposit hedge rollover.

在私人銀行方面，我們預計營收將成長約 4 億歐元或 4%，這得益於業務量持續成長和存款對沖展期帶來的 NII 增加。

This will be further complemented by growing noninterest income, harvesting benefits from higher assets under management and growth in investment solutions.

非利息收入的成長、資產管理規模的提高以及投資解決方案的成長將進一步補充這一成長。

Finally, we expect asset management to grow revenues by around EUR300 million or 12.5%.

最後，我們預期資產管理收入將成長約 3 億歐元或 12.5%。

We expect the business to benefit from the growth in assets under management during 2024 and a strong equity market development this year, which should boost management fees in 2025.

我們預計，該業務將受益於 2024 年管理資產的成長和今年強勁的股票市場發展，這將提高 2025 年的管理費。

We furthermore expect continued growth in passive, including extractors and in alternatives.

我們也預計，包括萃取器和替代品在內的被動技術將繼續成長。

These drivers underlying our confidence in achieving our revenue goal of around EUR32 billion in 2025 before FX benefits.

這些驅動因素增強了我們對實現 2025 年（扣除外匯收益）約 320 億歐元的收入目標的信心。

At year-end FX rates, we expect this number to be around EUR32.8 billion.

以年底外匯匯率計算，我們預計該數字將達到 328 億歐元左右。

Let's now look at the path to our RoTE target on slide 5.

現在讓我們來看看投影片 5 上 RoTE 目標的路徑。

We remain on a clear path to achieve our RoTE target of above 10% in 2025 driven by focused execution across all three delivery pillars of our Global Hausbank strategy.

我們仍朝著實現 2025 年超過 10% 的 RoTE 目標邁進，這透過重點執行我們全球 Hausbank 策略的所有三個交付支柱來實現。

As you saw, we have a business-by-business road map to grow revenues to around EUR32 billion in 2025, in line with our target compound annual growth rate of 5.5% to 6.5%.

正如您所看到的，我們有一個逐項業務的路線圖，旨在到 2025 年將收入增長到 320 億歐元左右，與我們 5.5% 至 6.5% 的目標複合年增長率一致。

Operational efficiencies play a key role in keeping adjusted costs flat in 2025 and thereby reducing total noninterest expenses as nonoperating costs normalize.

營運效率對於在 2025 年保持調整後成本持平，從而隨著非營運成本正常化而減少總非利息支出起著關鍵作用。

Capital efficiencies have delivered cumulative RWA equivalent reductions of EUR24 billion, close to our end 2025 goal of EUR25 billion to EUR30 billion.

資本效率已使 RWA 當量累積減少 240 億歐元，接近我們在 2025 年底實現的 250 億歐元至 300 億歐元的目標。

In the fourth quarter alone, we delivered EUR2 billion of RWA equivalent reductions driven by data and process improvements.

僅在第四季度，我們就透過數據和流程改進實現了 20 億歐元的 RWA 當量減少。

We are confident we will reach the upper end of our target range by year-end 2025 through further securitizations and data and process improvements.

我們相信，透過進一步的證券化和數據和流程改進，到 2025 年底我們將達到目標範圍的上限。

Delivery on these pillars gives us a clear path to an RoTE above 10% in 2025.

這些支柱的實現為我們在 2025 年實現 10% 以上的 RoTE 提供了清晰的道路。

Firstly, the nonrepeat of significant litigation items in 2024 gives us a starting point of our adjusted RoTE above 7%.

首先，2024 年重大訴訟項目未重複，這使我們的調整後 RoTE 的起點高於 7%。

Reaching our EUR32 billion revenue target is expected to add more than 2 percentage points to our 2025 RoTE.

我們實現 320 億歐元的收入目標預計將使我們 2025 年的 RoTE 增加 2 個百分點以上。

Secondly, we expect an additional contribution of around 60 basis points from the reduction in noninterest expenses.

其次，我們預期非利息支出的減少將額外貢獻約60個基點。

Together, this would bring us already to our targeted RoTE level.

總之，這將使我們達到目標 RoTE 水準。

And finally, we expect a contribution of around 40 basis points from the reduction of provisions in 2025 towards more normalized levels, in line with our guidance with our third quarter results.

最後，我們預計，2025 年撥備減少將為實現更正常化的水平貢獻約 40 個基點，這與我們對第三季業績的預期一致。

Let's now look a bit closer into some treasury-specific items over the next pages.

現在讓我們在接下來的幾頁中更深入地了解一些與財政相關的具體項目。

As we said before, we remain well positioned to continue delivering strong net interest income over the coming year.

正如我們之前所說，我們仍然有能力在未來一年繼續實現強勁的淨利息收入。

So let me start with a review of our fourth quarter on slide 7.

所以讓我從第 7 張投影片上對我們第四季的回顧開始。

NII across key banking book segments and other funding was strong at EUR3.3 billion, up sequentially and broadly flat from the prior year quarter.

主要銀行帳簿部門和其他融資部門的NII強勁達到33億歐元，較上季成長，與去年同期大致持平。

Compared to the third quarter, slightly higher deposit volumes, in particular, overnight deposits, offset the expected beta conversions in the corporate bank.

與第三季相比，存款量（尤其是隔夜存款）略有增加，抵消了企業銀行預期的貝塔轉換。

Private Bank NII was up sequentially as we guided before, and FIC financing continued to grow its loan portfolio with a corresponding increase in quarterly revenues.

私人銀行 NII 按照我們先前的預期連續上升，FIC 融資繼續增加其貸款組合，季度收入相應增加。

With that, let me turn to the full year NII trends and the outlook for 2025 on the next page.

接下來，我將在下一頁討論全年 NII 趨勢和 2025 年的展望。

Given the stronger NII in the fourth quarter, we outperformed our prior 2024 full year guidance of EUR13.1 billion, reporting EUR13.3 billion across our key banking book segments and other funding.

鑑於第四季度 NII 表現強勁，我們的業績超出了先前對 2024 年全年 131 億歐元的預期，報告顯示我們主要銀行帳簿部門和其他融資總額為 133 億歐元。

THis is about EUR100 million higher than 2023, reflecting the resilience of our NII even during the environment of falling rates and beta conversions.

這比 2023 年高出約 1 億歐元，反映了即使在利率下降和貝塔轉換的環境下，我們的 NII 仍具有韌性。

For 2025, we expect NII yet again to increase to around EUR13.6 billion, a sequential increase of around EUR400 million.

到 2025 年，我們預計 NII 將再次增加至約 136 億歐元，較上季增加約 4 億歐元。

This is in line with our guidance provided last quarter but reflect of the outperformance in the fourth quarter.

這與我們上個季度提供的指導一致，但反映了第四季度的優異表現。

The key drivers are the rollover effect from our hedges supported by portfolio growth in private bank, corporate bank and FIC financing.

關鍵驅動因素是我們的避險的展期效應，以及私人銀行、企業銀行和 FIC 融資的投資組合成長所帶來的影響。

Let us now look a bit closer into the contribution of the long-term interest rate hedge portfolio on slide 9.

現在讓我們更深入地看一下幻燈片 9 上的長期利率對沖投資組合的貢獻。

Based on forward rates at year-end, we expect the net interest income from the hedge book to grow by several hundred million euros each year as we roll maturing hedges.

根據年末的遠期利率，我們預計，隨著對沖到期，對沖帳簿的淨利息收入將每年增長數億歐元。

On the chart, for simplicity, we've included the average fixed rate for euro hedges maturing in each year as well as the current market implied replacement rate.

在圖表中，為簡單起見，我們包含了每年到期的歐元對沖的平均固定利率以及當前市場隱含的替代利率。

The shaded area indicates the rollover benefit.

陰影區域表示展期福利。

And as we have discussed before, the majority of our hedges are 10-year swaps, which gives an indication of the volume to be replaced each year.

正如我們之前所討論過的，我們的大多數對沖都是 10 年期掉期，這表明了每年需要替換的數量。

It is important to note that we also have roughly 10% of our hedges in other currencies, mostly in US dollar, which positively impacts the overall hedge income.

值得注意的是，我們也有大約 10% 的對沖以其他貨幣進行，大部分是美元，這對整體對沖收入產生了積極影響。

The currency mix as well as hedges executed at higher rates indicate that the hedge income will increase more steadily than the simple rate differential.

貨幣組合以及以更高利率執行的對沖表明對沖收入將比簡單利率差異更穩定地增長。

With respect to 2025, that increased to around EUR300 million with more than 90% of the income locked in with existing positions.

到 2025 年，這一數字將增加到 3 億歐元左右，其中 90% 以上的收入將透過現有部位鎖定。

In current rate conditions, we are more sensitive to the long-term rate development and less sensitive to short-term movements in policy rates.

在目前利率條件下，我們對長期利率發展較為敏感，對短期政策利率變動較不敏感。

Moving now to the development in our loan deposit books on slide 10.

現在轉到第 10 頁，了解我們的貸款存款帳簿的發展。

All figures in the commentary are adjusted for FX effects.

評論中的所有數字都根據 FX 效果進行了調整。

Overall, loans remained stable during the fourth quarter as lending activities remain subdued in some of our client segments.

整體而言，由於部分客戶群的貸款活動依然低迷，第四季貸款維持穩定。

Against these headwinds, our investment bank loan book strongly increased by EUR5 billion in 2024, supported by strategic initiatives to grow FIC financing.

面對這些不利因素，在增加 FIC 融資的策略性舉措的支持下，我們的投資銀行貸款帳簿在 2024 年強勁成長了 50 億歐元。

While we expect this trend in FIC to continue, we also see encouraging growth potential in wealth management.

我們預期固定收益投資的趨勢將會持續下去，同時我們也看到財富管理領域令人鼓舞的成長潛力。

Moving to deposits, where our well-diversified portfolio grew by EUR5 billion compared to the previous quarter, within that, we have seen substantial growth from general retail plans driven by our deposit campaigns.

談到存款，我們多元化的投資組合與上一季相比增長了 50 億歐元，其中，受存款活動的推動，一般零售計劃實現了大幅增長。

Based on this encouraging momentum, we see opportunities to further grow in this segment in 2025.

基於這令人鼓舞的勢頭，我們看到 2025 年該領域將有進一步成長的機會。

In line with previous guidance, corporate bank deposits have reduced modestly during the fourth quarter.

根據先前的指引，企業銀行存款在第四季略有減少。

In the appendix, we provide further granularity around the quality of our loan and deposit portfolio.

在附錄中，我們進一步詳細說明了我們的貸款和存款組合的品質。

On slide 11, we highlight the development of our key liquidity metrics.

在投影片 11 上，我們重點介紹了關鍵流動性指標的發展。

We manage our spot and liquidity coverage ratio at year-end to 131%, representing a surplus of both the regulatory minimum of EUR53 billion.

我們將年底的現貨和流動性覆蓋率控制在131%，超過530億歐元的監管最低標準。

With a daily average liquidity coverage ratio of [128%] during the quarter, we operated with a sound liquidity position at our targeted level.

本季日均流動性覆蓋率為 [128%]，我們的流動性狀況良好，達到目標水準。

The quarter end stock of EUR226 billion of HQLA, of which we hold about 95% in cash and Level 1 securities, slightly decreased quarter-over-quarter and was mainly driven by asset growth in the businesses.

本季末的 HQLA 存量為 2,260 億歐元，其中我們持有的約 95% 為現金和一級證券，環比略有下降，主要受業務資產成長的推動。

The surface reduction was mainly driven by an increase in net cash outflows.

表面減少主要是由於淨現金流出增加所致。

The net stable funding ratio at 121% reflects the strength of our funding base with more than two-thirds to group's stable funding sources coming from deposits.

121％的淨穩定資金比率反映了我們資金基礎的強勁，其中集團三分之二以上的穩定資金來源來自存款。

The surplus above regulatory requirements decreased to EUR110 billion.

超出監管要求的盈餘減少至1100億歐元。

Turning to capital on slide 12.

在第 12 張投影片上討論資本。

Our fourth quarter common equity Tier 1 ratio came in at 13.8%.

我們第四季的普通股一級資本比率為 13.8%。

CET1 capital decrease primarily reflects the deduction of the EUR750 million share buyback from excess capital.

CET1資本減少主要反映了從超額資本中扣除7.5億歐元的股票回購。

RWA were lower adjusted for FX driven by market risk.

受市場風險影響，風險加權資產經外匯調整後下降。

The marginal increase in credit risk was driven by model changes largely offset by reductions from capital efficiency measures.

信用風險的邊際增加是由模型變化所推動的，但在很大程度上被資本效率措施的減少所抵消。

With respect to the CRR3 go-live effective on January 1, 2025, our pro forma CET1 ratio was 13.9%.

對於 2025 年 1 月 1 日生效的 CRR3，我們的預期 CET1 比率為 13.9%。

However, the CRR3 go-live would also lead to around EUR5 billion of RWA-equivalent impact from operational risk in the first quarter.

然而，CRR3 的上線也將導致第一季約 50 億歐元的 RWA 當量營運風險影響。

Hence, total impact of CRR3 is a CET1 ratio burden of around 15 basis points, consistent with prior guidance.

因此，CRR3 的總體影響是 CET1 比率負擔約 15 個基點，與先前的指導一致。

Our capital ratios remain well above regulatory requirements, as shown on slide 13.

我們的資本比率仍遠高於監管要求，如投影片 13 所示。

The CET1 MDA buffer now stands at 264 basis points or EUR9 billion of CET1 capital.

CET1 MDA 緩衝目前為 264 個基點，或 90 億歐元的 CET1 資本。

While this is 2 basis points higher quarter-on-quarter reflecting the increase of our CET1 ratio, the buffer to total capital requirement increased by 44 basis points and now stands at 331 basis points.

雖然該數字比上一季高出 2 個基點，反映了我們的 CET1 比率的增加，但總資本要求的緩衝增加了 44 個基點，目前為 331 個基點。

This increase was principally driven by our additional Tier 1 capital issuance in the fourth quarter.

這一增長主要得益於我們第四季額外的一級資本發行。

Effective from January 1, 2025, our buffers over requirements are impacted by the CRR3 go-live and the increase in Pillar 2 requirements.

自 2025 年 1 月 1 日起，我們的緩衝要求將受到 CRR3 上線和第二支柱要求增加的影響。

On a pro forma basis, the buffer to our CET1 requirement at the start of 2025 was 250 basis points, above our target operational level of 200 basis points distance to MDA.

從形式上看，2025 年初我們的 CET1 要求的緩衝為 250 個基點，高出我們與 MDA 相差 200 個基點的目標運作水準。

Moving to slide 14.

移至投影片 14。

At the end of the fourth quarter, our leverage ratio stood at 4.6%, flat sequentially as the benefit from additional to capital was offset by the CET1 deduction for the announced EUR750 million share buyback and FX effects.

截至第四季末，我們的槓桿率為 4.6%，與上一季持平，因為額外資本利得被宣布的 7.5 億歐元股票回購和外匯影響的 CET1 扣除所抵銷。

Following the 2024 [STRAP] assessment, our 2025 Pillar 2 requirement for leverage ratio remained unchanged.

根據 2024 年 [STRAP] 評估，我們對 2025 年第二支柱的槓桿率要求保持不變。

We continue to operate with significant loss-absorbing capacity well above all requirements, as shown on slide 15.

我們繼續以遠高於所有要求的強大損失吸收能力運營，如幻燈片 15 所示。

The MREL surplus, our most binding constraint, increased by EUR3 billion and now stands at EUR23 billion at the end of the quarter.

我們最具約束力的限制因素——MREL 盈餘增加了 30 億歐元，截至本季末達到 230 億歐元。

The increase reflects higher MREL supply from new senior preferred and additional Tier 1 capital issuances, partially offset by increased MREL requirements from higher RWA.

這一增長反映了來自新優先股和額外一級資本發行的 MREL 供應增加，但被來自更高 RWA 的 MREL 要求增加部分抵消。

Our surface thus remains at a comfortable level, which continues to provide us with the flexibility to pause issuing new eligible liabilities insurance for at least one year.

因此，我們的表面仍保持在舒適的水平，這繼續為我們提供了靈活性，可以暫停簽發新的合格責任保險至少一年。

Moving now to our issuance plan on slide 16.

現在轉到第 16 頁的發行計畫。

We finished 2024 with a total issuance volume of EUR18 billion, in line with our guidance of ending the year at year-end of EUR13 billion to EUR18 billion range.

截至 2024 年，我們的總發行量達到 180 億歐元，符合我們年底 130 億歐元至 180 億歐元的預期。

During the fourth quarter of 2024, the most notable deal was a EUR1.5 billion AT1 transaction, which attracts a little over EUR10 billion in total orders.

2024 年第四季度，最引人注目的交易是價值 15 億歐元的 AT1 交易，該交易吸引的訂單總額略高於 100 億歐元。

Turning now to 2025.

現在展望 2025 年。

We expect to issue between EUR15 billion and EUR20 billion, broadly in line with last year's plan.

我們預計發行額在150億歐元至200億歐元之間，與去年的計畫大致一致。

The composition is also similar to 2024 with a focus on senior nonpreferred bonds and capital instruments.

其組成也與 2024 年相似，重點在於優先非優先債券和資本工具。

Senior preferred issuances will be primarily in nonbenchmark format.

高級優先股的發行將主要採用非基準形式。

So far, we have already raised roughly EUR2 billion, predominantly via US dollar-denominated CD nonpreferred dual transaction issued on January 8.

到目前為止，我們已經籌集了大約 20 億歐元，主要透過 1 月 8 日發行的以美元計價的 CD 非優先雙重交易。

As you know, we have $4 billion worth in AT1 instruments callable in 2025 across three different securities.

如您所知，我們擁有三種不同證券，價值 40 億美元的 AT1 工具可在 2025 年贖回。

We assess call decisions based on several factors, including capital demand, refinancing levels versus reset, FX effects impacting CET1 as well as market expectations.

我們根據多種因素來評估贖回決策，包括資本需求、再融資水準與重置、影響 CET1 的外匯效應以及市場預期。

This can result in different decisions based on the features of each individual bond.

這可能導致根據每張債券的特點而做出不同的決定。

Our focus for the first quarter is on the two instruments, which we have a call in April 2025, both of which have a negative FX revaluation impact.

我們第一季的重點是兩種工具，我們在 2025 年 4 月對其進行了調用，這兩種工具都對外匯重估產生了負面影響。

Based upon current markets, the [7.5s] would reset to 9.204% and the [4.789s] at 8.788%.

根據目前市場狀況，7.5 秒利率將重設為 9.204%，4.789 秒利率將重設為 8.788%。

You can expect us to take a decision closer to the call date on April 30 this year, at the latest by end of March, shortly before the respective final notification dates for the two securities.

我們將在今年 4 月 30 日的贖回日前做出決定，最遲將在 3 月底前做出，也就是這兩隻證券各自的最終通知日期前不久。

Regarding the third security with a current coupon of 6%, the reset coupon will be 8.974%.

對於目前票面利率為 6% 的第三隻證券，重置票面利率將為 8.974%。

We will provide further information on this security closer to the call date.

我們將在臨近贖回日期時提供有關該證券的更多資訊。

Before going to your questions, let me conclude with a summary on slide 17.

在回答你們的問題之前，讓我先對第 17 張投影片做一個總結。

We believe we are on track to deliver increased revenues of EUR2 billion to achieve this year's revenue goal of around EUR32 billion, which translates to around EUR32.8 billion at year-end FX rates.

我們相信，我們預計將營收增加 20 億歐元，從而實現今年約 320 億歐元的收入目標，以年底外匯匯率計算，約 328 億歐元。

We remain committed to rigorous cost management, and we'll manage our cost base to a cost-income ratio of below 65% for 2025.

我們將繼續致力於嚴格的成本管理，到2025年，我們將把成本基礎管理到65％以下的成本收入比。

Although this is higher than the level we were previously aiming for, we feel good the level of investment in 2025 positions us for incremental opportunities and higher returns over time while also further improving our controls environment.

雖然這高於我們先前設定的目標水平，但我們認為 2025 年的投資水準將使我們獲得增量機會和更高的回報，同時也進一步改善我們的控制環境。

We continue to expect an amelioration of provision for credit losses in 2025 as the transitory headwinds we call out subside.

隨著我們所預測的暫時性不利因素逐漸消退，我們預期 2025 年信貸損失準備金將持續改善。

This should result in a run rate of around EUR350 million to EUR400 million of average quarterly provisions with further normalization expected in the following years.

這將導致平均季度撥備的運行率達到約3.5億歐元至4億歐元，預計未來幾年將進一步正常化。

We have made good progress on our issuance plan with around EUR2 billion issued in January.

我們的發行計畫取得了良好進展，一月份發行了約20億歐元。

And we are committed to maintaining a buffer of around 200 basis points above our CET1 capital requirements, which we think balances the interest of both our bondholders and our shareholders.

我們致力於維持高於 CET1 資本需求約 200 個基點的緩衝，我們認為這可以平衡我們的債券持有人和股東的利益。

Our full attention remains on delivering a post-tax RoTE of above 10% in 2025 driven by continued revenue momentum, cost control and balance sheet efficiency.

我們的全部注意力仍然集中在透過持續的收入成長、成本控制和資產負債表效率實現 2025 年稅後 RoTE 超過 10% 的目標上。

With that, let us turn to your questions.

現在，讓我們來回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Lee Street, Citigroup.

（操作員指示）Lee Street，花旗集團。

I have three brief questions, please.

我有三個簡短的問題。

Firstly, just on Tier 2 capital, you've obviously got a bit of a shortfall there, but you've got a bit extra AT1.

首先，僅在二級資本方面，你顯然存在一些缺口，但你有一點額外的 AT1。

What do you target as the level of Tier 2 you're looking to run with in the ordinary course of operations?

在正常運作過程中，您希望將 Tier 2 等級達到什麼水平？

Secondly, yesterday, there was some reference mentioned to potentially dropping down a G-SIB bucket alongside other measures.

其次，昨天有消息稱，可能除了採取其他措施外，還降低 G-SIB 評級。

Just particular, if you were to drop a G-SIB bucket does that matter because, I guess, you have a higher domestic requirements.

具體來說，如果你放棄 G-SIB 桶，這是否重要，因為我猜你有更高的國內要求。

Any thoughts there?

有什麼想法嗎？

And then finally, thank you for the comments and clarity on the view of how you think about calls.

最後，感謝您對通話的看法的評論和澄清。

I guess we can look at spread levels work out the impact.

我想我們可以透過觀察利差水準來計算其影響。

But you also referenced investor expectations.

但您也提到了投資人的期望。

So if I may, what do you believe the investor expectations are for the bonds coming to call?

那麼如果可以的話，您認為投資人對即將到期的債券有何期望？

That would be my three questions.

這就是我的三個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Lee.

謝謝，李。

Thank you for joining.

感謝您的加入。

And happy Friday, I guess, last day of the month.

我想，星期五是快樂的一天，因為這是本月的最後一天。

So I guess, I'll take the Tier 2 capital piece.

所以我想我會選擇二級資本部分。

So the way we think about it, how we think about -- both the AT1 bucket and the Tier 2 bucket in combination, so -- and depending on kind of the needs of the balance sheet, any one particular point in time, then that sort of dictates kind of which bucket we kind of -- we have a preference for.

因此，我們思考這個問題的方式，我們如何考慮——AT1 桶和 Tier 2 桶的組合，因此——並且根據資產負債表的需求，任何一個特定的時間點，這都會決定我們偏好哪個桶。

So now we lean towards AT1, but that can change in the future as the balance sheet sort of changes.

因此，現在我們傾向於 AT1，但隨著資產負債表的變化，未來可能會發生變化。

In terms of the investor expectations, I guess, on the AT1 calls, so I guess what we're saying there is we're -- as you know, we've been talking about this for a few quarters now, and we're sort of still awaiting our ability to communicate clearly to you, guys, just because of waiting the sort of regulatory approval.

就投資者對 AT1 電話的期望而言，我想我們在這裡要說的是——如你所知，我們已經討論了幾個季度了，我們仍在等待與你們清楚地溝通的能力，只是因為在等待監管部門的批准。

But how we think about investor expectations is more, A, where things are pricing in the market and not to sort of disappoint our investors per se.

但是，我們如何看待投資者的期望，更多的是，A，市場定價的方式，而不是讓我們的投資者失望。

And so we are kind of cognizant where the market is currently trading.

因此我們大概知道市場目前的交易情況。

We're aware of certainly the feedback we receive from investors, and all of that is something we take into consideration in that overall application we made.

我們當然知道我們從投資者那裡收到的回饋，所有這些都是我們在整體申請中考慮到的因素。

And I think -- and maybe James wants to illuminate on the G-SIB buffers piece that he talked about yesterday.

我認為——也許詹姆斯想闡明他昨天談到的 G-SIB 緩衝部分。

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you, Richard, and Lee, for the question.

感謝 Richard 和 Lee 提出這個問題。

So Yeah, the G-SIB and domestic O-SII features in two ways.

所以是的，G-SIB和國內O-SII有兩個特點。

One is MDA for CET1 purposes and the same for leverage ratio.

一個是針對 CET1 目的的 MDA，另一個是針對槓桿率的 MDA。

For CET1 purposes, you -- we reflect our O-SII setting, which is currently 2%, against the global G-SIB of 1.5%.

就 CET1 而言，我們反映了我們的 O-SII 設置，目前為 2%，而全球 G-SIB 為 1.5%。

As our overall scoring comes down in this -- our O-SII potentially could reset downwards.

由於我們的總分下降 - 我們的 O-SII 可能會向下重置。

As you know, there's a European scoring that is applied, and then there's a domestic calibration that's applied to drive your O-SII level.

如您所知，我們採用歐洲評分標準，然後採用國內校準來推動您的 O-SII 水平。

But at a point in time when G-SIB and O-SII diverge by, in this case, 100 basis points if we were to slip down from the 1.5% to 1% bucket, you might expect that the calibration would struggle to keep us at 2%, hence, my comment yesterday for CET1 purposes that there is at least a possibility in the coming years of a reduction in MDA from that particular driver.

但是，當我們從 1.5% 下滑至 1% 的範圍時，G-SIB 和 O-SII 出現分歧（在本例中為 100 個基點）時，您可能會預計校準將難以將我們保持在 2%，因此，我昨天針對 CET1 目的的評論是，未來幾年，由於該特定驅動因素，MDA 至少有可能減少。

I also have seen that there was new guidance issued late last year in terms of a proposed change in Europe to harmonize the domestic calibrations there, which I think sort of gives you an indication of direction of travel.

我還看到，在去年年底歐洲發布了關於擬議變更以協調其國內校準的新指南，我認為這為旅行的方向指明了方向。

On the leverage ratio, there, the G-SIB has the impact.

就槓桿率而言，G-SIB 是有影響的。

We -- our minimum requirements on leverage reflect the minimum 3%-plus half of the G-SIB amount, which currently at 1.5% means 75 basis points is added to our minimum leverage requirement.

我們對槓桿率的最低要求反映了 G-SIB 金額的最低 3% 加上一半，目前為 1.5%，這意味著在我們的最低槓桿率要求上增加了 75 個基點。

That could slip to 50 basis points if we were to go to the 1% G-SIB bucket.

如果我們採用 1% G-SIB 桶，該比率可能會下滑至 50 個基點。

So with the full detail, I wanted to again clarify that comment from yesterday.

因此，我想透過詳細的內容再次澄清昨天的評論。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

[Domenico Maggio], Jefferies.

[Domenico Maggio]，傑富瑞。

Two for me.

對我來說是兩個。

Are you thinking about moving away from the temporary write-down clause into standard contingent conversion clause?

您是否正在考慮將臨時減記條款轉變為標準的或有轉換條款？

Clearly, I'm aware that this should be put up on both at AGM.

顯然，我知道這應該在年度股東大會上提出。

And the second one, whether by doing that, you would have set some potential FX losses on calling the dollar AT1 coming up to maturity in 2025.

第二，透過這樣做，你是否會在 2025 年到期的美元 AT1 債券上承擔一些潛在的外匯損失。

Thanks, Domenico.

謝謝，多梅尼科。

Thanks for joining the call.

感謝您加入通話。

So in terms of temporary write-down clause, your first question.

所以關於臨時減記條款，這是您的第一個問題。

Yeah, we are looking into alternatives in this market.

是的，我們正在尋找這個市場的替代品。

And so you're right, the contingent conversion into equity may allow debt accounting, which will be helpful.

所以你是對的，或有轉換為股權可能允許債務核算，這將是有幫助的。

But unfortunately, because we're a bit more challenging as a German issuer under German tax law as it would very likely lead to an imposition of withholding tax, which makes the structure uneconomical for us.

但不幸的是，作為德國發行人，根據德國稅法，我們面臨的挑戰更大，因為這很可能會導致徵收預扣稅，這使得這種結構對我們來說不經濟。

But we are continuing to look at various alternative structures, which will allow us to kind of solve for the various constraints that we need to.

但我們仍在繼續研究各種替代結構，這將使我們能夠解決所需的各種限制。

And then in terms of whether that offset potential FX losses, that sort of structure -- at alternative structure would -- will benefit future issuance, but it would be able to do anything about existing securities.

然後就是否可以抵消潛在的外匯損失而言，這種結構 - 替代結構 - 將有利於未來的發行，但它可以對現有證券產生任何影響。

Paul Fenner-Leitao, Societe Generale.

法國興業銀行的保羅‧芬納-萊塔奧 (Paul Fenner-Leitao)。

I've got three -- actually, I had four, but I won't be greedy.

我有三個——實際上，我有四個，但我不會貪心。

I've got three quick questions.

我有三個簡單的問題。

The first is on Stage 2 loans.

第一個是關於第二階段貸款。

I noticed from the Excel that you're running at a Stage 2.

我從 Excel 中註意到您正在第 2 階段運行。

It's quite a big jump from September to the end of December to EUR64 billion Stage 2.

從 9 月到 12 月底，第二階段的資金投入達到了 640 億歐元，這是一個相當大的飛躍。

That's the highest it's been basically on this Excel, which is the highest it's been since 2022.

這基本上是 Excel 上的最高值，也是 2022 年以來的最高值。

Can you just explain what's going on there?

你能解釋一下那裡發生了什麼事嗎？

Is this kind of a German macro problem?

這不就是德國宏觀層面的問題嗎？

That would be -- some color on that would be great.

那將是——有些顏色就太好了。

The second question is, I guess, there's a little bit of a philosophy here.

第二個問題，我想，這裡面有一點哲學。

But if I look at slide 3, and I look at your ROEs, RoTEs across the business, I mean, the outlier in terms of underperforming from a risk-return perspective, a volatility return perspective is the investment bank.

但是，如果我看投影片 3，並查看貴公司的 ROE、整個業務的 RoTE，我的意思是，從風險回報角度、波動性回報角度來看，表現不佳的異常值是投資銀行。

My question is, what's your internal cost of capital for that business?

我的問題是，該業務的內部資本成本是多少？

And do you think it gets there?

您認為它能達到目的嗎？

I mean DB is not the only 1 in Europe that's suffering from this, but a little bit of color on that.

我的意思是 DB 並不是歐洲唯一一家遭受這種困擾的公司，但情況有點特殊。

And I know that you guys are under continuous strategic review.

我知道你們正在接受持續的策略審查。

If that is getting rid of the IB at some stage something that you would look at?

如果在某個階段要取消 IB，您會考慮這麼做嗎？

And then the third question is back to this -- back to AT1 calls, I'm afraid.

然後第三個問題又回到了這個問題——恐怕又回到了 AT1 呼叫。

On slide 16, someone must have purposely put this comment in at the end, which is build specific approach for AT1 calls.

在投影片 16 上，一定有人特意在最後加入了這則評論，即為 AT1 呼叫建構特定的方法。

I think it was Lee made the point that all of these calls are now in the money, potentially by a considerable amount, certainly maybe 20 basis points, maybe significantly more if you do something in dollars.

我認為李指出，所有這些看漲期權現在都是價內值，可能幅度相當大，肯定可能有 20 個基點，如果以美元計算，可能會更高。

My understanding is that there is no limit to when you can make the call announcement on these bonds.

我的理解是，對於這些債券的贖回公告的時間沒有限制。

I guess you're looking for some regulatory approval, but you might have got that last year.

我猜你正在尋求一些監管部門的批准，但你可能去年就已經獲得了。

The market is super hungry for AT1.

市場對 AT1 極為渴求。

Dollars are a great market to go into.

美元是一個值得進入的龐大市場。

You could probably issue it somewhere around 400.

您大概可以發行 400 左右。

What are you waiting for?

還在等什麼？

And the question is -- I guess, the additional question is, would it not make sense for you to say that you're going to call and then issue, and thus saving you maybe 10, 15 basis points?

問題是——我想，另一個問題是，如果您說您要先打電話然後發行，從而節省 10 到 15 個基點，這是否沒有意義？

A little bit of color around AT1 calls would be great.

AT1 呼叫周圍有一點顏色就很棒了。

So Paul, it's James.

保羅，我是詹姆斯。

I might jump in on the second question around the IB and the cost of capital.

我可能會直接問有關 IB 和資本成本的第二個問題。

Look, strategically, no, under no circumstances.

從戰略角度來看，絕對不是，在任何情況下都是如此。

We view the investment bank to be a critical part of our company and and our offering.

我們認為投資銀行是我們公司及其產品的關鍵組成部分。

We talk about the Global Hausbank strategy.

我們討論全球 Hausbank 戰略。

And for our clients, especially on the institutional and corporate side, but also in some respects in the wealth management businesses -- business rely on the capabilities of our investment bank, and we are a leading player in the marketplace.

對於我們的客戶，特別是機構和企業客戶，以及財富管理業務的某些方面，業務依賴我們投資銀行的能力，我們是市場領導者。

So we view it very much to be an integrated business in our overall offering.

因此，我們認為它是我們整體產品中的一項綜合業務。

To your point, post crisis, all of the investment banks had to struggle to rebuild kind of their profitability and capital utilization, reflecting the post-crisis regulation.

正如您所說，危機過後，所有投資銀行都必須努力重建獲利能力和資本利用率，這反映了危機後的監管。

And so we, like many, looked hard at the business, how you would transform it and restructure it to meet hurdle rates under the new requirements.

因此，我們和許多人一樣，認真研究了業務，研究如何轉型、重組業務以滿足新要求下的最低收益率。

And I'll say we've come a very long way in that regard.

我想說我們在這方面已經取得了長足的進步。

On a blended basis, our investment bank, you will have seen 9% last year.

從綜合基礎來看，我們的投資銀行去年的成長率為 9%。

We think it's well on its way to meeting and exceeding its cost of capital over time.

我們認為，隨著時間的推移，它將能夠滿足並超過其資本成本。

And we're working on each of the business units within the investment bank and certainly those that are below what we would perceive our cost of capital to be to improve.

我們正在對投資銀行內的每個業務部門進行改進，尤其是那些低於我們認為的資本成本的業務部門。

And we think there are significant tools available now to do that, whether it's on the capital side or, frankly, costs and revenue generation.

我們認為，現在有許多重要的工具可以實現這一目標，無論是在資本方面，還是坦白說，在成本和創收方面。

And so it is becoming more and more efficient in its resource utilization as we continue to develop it and build it under the leadership of Fabrizio, Ram and Mark.

隨著我們在 Fabrizio、Ram 和 Mark 的領導下不斷開發和建設，它的資源利用效率越來越高。

So we're pleased with that progress.

因此我們對這項進展感到非常高興。

In terms of differential cost of capital, just inside our inner workings, we apply a firm-wide cost of capital across all businesses to look at exceeding hurdle rates for shareholder value add.

就差異資本成本而言，僅在我們的內部運作中，我們將全公司的資本成本應用於所有業務，以查看股東價值增加的超越最低收益率。

But our expectations aren't limited to the cost of capital of the group.

但我們的預期並不限於集團的資本成本。

Obviously, many of our businesses operate in markets and product areas that should be well above the group's cost of capital.

顯然，我們許多業務的市場和產品領域應該遠高於集團的資本成本。

And so there's a differential that we think of as -- in terms of group hurdle rates and expectations in individual businesses.

因此，我們認為，就集團最低收益率和各企業的預期而言，存在差異。

I hope that helps give you a sense of our thinking about all that.

我希望這有助於讓您了解我們對這一切的想法。

So may I pick up the AT1 question.

因此我可以回答 AT1 問題嗎？

So I guess -- so thanks, Paul, for the question.

所以我想——感謝保羅提出這個問題。

The -- I guess there was on part of the observations you made.

我想這其中有你所做的部分觀察。

So one, I guess, around the deal-specific language, I mean that was something that we have mentioned in previous earnings calls.

因此，我想，關於交易的具體語言，我的意思是，這是我們在之前的財報電話會議上提到的事情。

And it's much more flat than one of the things which you say that we're in the money on some of these calls coming due in 2025.

而且它比您所說的我們在 2025 年到期的一些看漲期權上獲利的情況要平緩得多。

One of the things we're at pains to sort of point out is this FX translation charge that we have as well.

我們費盡心思要指出的一件事就是我們也需要支付外匯翻譯費。

So that's something that we have to think about, not just the sort of the credit and rate market valuation of the call.

所以這是我們必須考慮的事情，而不僅僅是信貸和利率市場估值。

And so -- when you think about those, then we have security, which is callable in October.

所以 — — 當您考慮到這些時，我們就有了可在十月份贖回的擔保。

We'll make a decision on that guide a bit closer to the time that I'd like the CET1 impact from there, from the FX effects is relatively small currently.

我們將在更接近我希望 CET1 影響的時間時對該指南做出決定，因為 FX 效果目前相對較小。

And then we have two calls in June and April, as you know.

如你所知，我們在六月和四月有兩次電話會議。

The -- one is -- both are kind of in the money from what we can see in market levels today.

一方面，從現今的市場水準來看，兩者都處於獲利狀態。

You're correct on that.

你說得對。

We obviously have quite attractive reset levels.

我們的重置水平顯然非常有吸引力。

One has different language in the sense it's a legacy LIBOR contract.

其中一種語言有所不同，因為它是遺留的 LIBOR 合約。

So these things are things that we have to consider about what is -- makes economic sense for us based on sort of the criteria that we've explained a few times before.

所以，我們必須考慮這些事情，根據我們之前解釋過幾次的標準，這些事情對我們來說是否具有經濟意義。

And in terms of market opportunities to go, I agree with you, the market aprons.

關於市場機會，我同意你的觀點，市場圍裙。

We were successful in issuing in November when there was a similar strong demand for AT1.

當 AT1 的需求同樣強勁時，我們在 11 月成功發行。

Just the windows for these activities given the equity securities that vis-a-vis bodes both internal approvals from our Supervisory Boards versus disclosures versus regulators just means the windows isn't continuous for us.

鑑於股權證券，這些活動的窗口預示著我們監事會的內部批准與監管機構的揭露，這意味著窗口對我們來說並不連續。

So those are some of the reasons for why these things are presented to account.

這就是為什麼這些事情需要解釋的原因。

Richard, I'm happy to take the Stage 2 quick question.

理查德，我很高興回答第二階段的快速提問。

It's really sovereign downgrade.

這確實是主權降級。

So there's a sort of a Tier 2 -- Stage 2 trigger that takes place when there are downgrades, including of sovereigns and sometimes clearing houses and the like and that type of things.

因此，當出現降級時，就會出現一種第 2 級——第 2 階段觸發因素，包括主權債務降級，有時還有清算所等類似情況。

So typically, when you see volatility in that for us, it has to do with that type of event.

因此通常來說，當您看到我們的波動時，它與該類型的事件有關。

In this case, that is what happened to sovereign downgrades in the period that impacted Stage 2.

在這種情況下，這就是影響第二階段的時期內主權評級下調發生的情況。

And to the kind of the way you phrased the question, it really isn't Germany sort of overall credit conditions.

對於您提出的問題，這實際上並不是德國那種整體信貸狀況。

As we've said on yesterday's call, we are seeing very modest movements, and by the way, also in the disclosure materials, very modest movements in the German portfolio, which is not to say we're not watching it carefully but is to say it's not a driver of the Stage 2 movement.

正如我們在昨天的電話會議上所說的那樣，我們看到了非常溫和的變動，順便說一句，在披露材料中，德國投資組合的變動也非常溫和，這並不是說我們沒有密切關注它，而是說它不是第二階段變動的驅動因素。

Okay.

好的。

Can I just come back on one additional question on the AT1 thing.

我還能再問一個關於 AT1 的問題嗎？

It's a follow-up.

這是後續行動。

Something that comes across with my conversations with investors and certainly other issuers, they perceive the FX loss is something that they just basically have to stomach, and it is unfair to have investors have to kind of second-guess on FX, i.e., it's something that you're supposed to be able to manage without that necessarily influencing their call decision.

我在與投資者以及其他發行人的交談中了解到，他們認為外匯損失是他們必須忍受的事情，讓投資者對外匯有所猜測是不公平的，也就是說，這是你應該能夠管理的事情，而不必影響他們的看漲決定。

That's just a bit of feedback.

這只是一點反饋。

I think the way we kind of flagged out there is just as people ask what our thinking is around our call strategy given all the kind of constraints that we have to think about, as I mentioned earlier, what we're saying is it's something else that we have to think about as an input into that thinking.

我認為，我們在這裡標記的方式就像人們問我們對我們的呼叫策略的想法是什麼，考慮到我們必須考慮的所有限制，正如我之前提到的，我們所說的是，這是我們必須考慮的其他東西，作為對這種思考的輸入。

Daniel David, Autonomous.

丹尼爾‧戴維 (Daniel David)，自治。

Congrats on the results.

恭喜你所取得的成果。

I've got three, a couple on AT1 and one on Tier 2.

我有三個，幾個在 AT1 上，一個在 Tier 2 上。

I just -- just following on maybe from that last question.

我只是——可能只是接著最後一個問題。

I just wanted to focus on FX to start with.

我只是想先關注 FX。

And look, we can debate whether investors should take it or it's your responsibility.

瞧，我們可以討論投資者是否應該承擔它或這是你的責任。

What I'm interested in and observed is that the FX hits have got worse as a result of FX moves recently.

我感興趣並觀察到的是，由於最近的外匯變動，外匯衝擊變得更加嚴重。

So I guess, my question is with the call process, could you have hedged against that FX getting worse, I guess, maybe avoiding extra EUR100 million of hit?

所以我想，我的問題是，在通話過程中，你能否對沖外匯惡化的情況，也許可以避免額外的 1 億歐元損失？

And is this something you considered ahead of time?

這是您事先考慮到的事情嗎？

The second one on AT1 is just on the bucket and where you want to be longer term.

AT1 上的第二個只是關於桶子以及你想要長期停留的地方。

So it's quite healthy at the moment, 3.2% and 85 bps of leverage.

因此，目前的情況相當健康，槓桿率為 3.2% 和 85 個基點。

When I think back to what you said about the first AT1 last year, you set to manage our leverage ratio given internal amount.

當我回想起您去年談到第一個AT1時，您設定要管理我們給定內部金額的槓桿率。

So how should we think about that bucket and also what you've done in the AT1 space?

那麼我們應該如何看待這個桶子以及您在 AT1 領域所做的事情？

And then just briefly on Tier 2.

然後簡單談談第 2 層。

Clearly, we saw the reg impact, the change in Q3.

顯然，我們看到了監管影響和第三季的變化。

And at the time, I think you said you don't want to fill it with new Tier 2 issuance.

而且當時，我認為您說過您不想用新的 Tier 2 發行來填補它。

I just wondered if that's still the case.

我只是想知道情況是否仍然如此。

And if so, why don't you want to replenish that Tier 2 bucket.

如果是這樣，為什麼你不想補充那個二級儲存桶呢？

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you very much indeed, Dan, for those three questions.

丹，非常感謝您提出這三個問題。

So I will go through the FX hit.

因此我將介紹 FX 的影響。

So your hedging, yeah, it's something that we've thought about many times.

是的，你的對沖是的，這是我們多次考慮過的事情。

I think the trade-off, unfortunately, is what around sort of an economic impact through capital, which is what the current situation will be versus hedging and generating mark-to-market P&L and consumer market risk RWA.

我認為，不幸的是，權衡是透過資本對經濟產生的某種影響，這就是當前的情況，而不是對沖和產生以市價計價的損益表和消費者市場風險 RWA。

So -- and that's just the nature of IFRS accounting for this equity accounting that we have for this instrument, where the FX rate is set at inception.

所以 - 這就是我們對這種工具進行權益會計的 IFRS 會計性質，其中外匯匯率是在開始時設定的。

So those are the sort of choices from time to time we considered where hedging makes sense.

所以，這些都是我們時不時會考慮的、對沖合理的選擇。

But you're right, yeah, since I guess the -- since the second half of last year, then the euro has weakened against the dollar.

但你是對的，是的，我想自從去年下半年以來，歐元兌美元就貶值了。

So that is a calculation then the FX effect has gone against us slightly since then.

所以，這是一個計算，從那時起，外匯效應就對我們略微不利了。

So that's the hedging question.

這就是對沖的問題。

The other one is around the, I guess, the bucket and internal demand.

我想，另一個是關於桶子和內部需求。

So what -- I guess a couple of things there.

那麼—我猜那裡有幾件事。

So what you would see on the -- which kind of inputs are thinking around AT1 going forward is -- I guess in Q4, you would have seen on the CET1 side lower market risk RWA consumption.

因此，您會看到 — — 未來圍繞 AT1 考慮的投入類型是 — — 我想在第四季度，您會看到 CET1 方面的市場風險 RWA 消耗降低。

We expect that to normalize back through Q1 and going forward just given the robustness of the investment banking franchise.

鑑於投資銀行業務的穩健性，我們預計這種情況將在第一季及以後恢復正常。

And then similarly, in terms of our liability raising both in terms of the deposits, both in our corporate bank and private bank, then that obviously brings cash off the balance sheet, which is leverage-intensive as well.

同樣地，就我們的負債增加（包括公司銀行和私人銀行的存款）而言，這顯然會從資產負債表上帶來現金，這也是槓桿密集型的。

So those two dynamics means that there's an underlying need to have a decent weighting in that bucket.

因此，這兩種動態意味著需要在該桶中分配適當的權重。

But as I kind of said at the outset, I do imagine that mix between AT1 and Tier 2 will change.

但正如我在一開始所說的那樣，我確實想像 AT1 和 Tier 2 之間的組合將會改變。

But for what I can see through 2025, based on our current planning, then I think it's going to be based throughout 2024.

但就我所能預見的 2025 年而言，根據我們目前的規劃，我認為它將以 2024 年為基礎。

Does that answer your questions?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

Or was there another question which I missed?

或者還有其他我遺漏的問題？

Just on the Tier 2 piece, right?

只是在第 2 層作品上，對嗎？

So that reg change to the value that you recognized in the capital ratios, I think you made a comment that you don't want to replenish it via issuance.

因此，對於您在資本比率中確認的價值的監管變更，我認為您表示不想透過發行來補充它。

Was there a reason for not wanting to do that?

有什麼理由不想這麼做嗎？

No.

不。

I think it's more just a trade-off, right?

我認為這只不過是一種權衡，對嗎？

Like I say, I think just from what's the best instrument to achieve our objectives from a funding and liquidity and capital perspective based on what's in our balance sheet development and our growth and Tier 2, we don't think it's necessarily the best asset for 2025.

就像我說的，我認為，僅從融資、流動性和資本角度來看，基於我們的資產負債表發展、成長和二級市場，什麼是實現我們目標的最佳工具，我們認為它不一定是 2025 年的最佳資產。

But it might well be the better instruments beyond that.

但它很可能是更好的工具。

Robert Smalley, Verition.

羅伯特·斯莫利（Robert Smalley），Verition。

I'm sorry to beat a dead horse on the AT1s, but one or two questions.

很抱歉，我再次在 AT1 上重複舊問題，但我有一兩個問題。

In terms of FX losses, what would be an acceptable FX loss for a call?

就外匯損失而言，看漲期權的可接受外匯損失是多少？

How would you evaluate that?

您如何評價這一點？

And you're in a position on that in pretty much all three.

而且您幾乎在這三個方面都處於這樣的立場。

Secondly, as you -- you have significant buffers across the board.

其次，正如您所說——您在各個方面都擁有顯著的緩衝。

As you bring down capital buffers, you have three calls this year in AT1s.

當你降低資本緩衝時，今年你會在 AT1 中獲得三次通話機會。

Is it possible that you just call one, two, all three, none for cash as opposed to calling and refinancing?

您是否可以只撥打一次、兩次或全部三次電話來獲取現金，而不是撥打電話並再融資？

And then I had a third completely unrelated question, but something I wanted to pick up on from the call yesterday on the Mittelstand opportunity that you have.

然後我還有第三個完全不相關的問題，但我想從昨天關於你們的中小企業機會的電話中了解到一些情況。

You talked about making your operations domestically more efficient to address that.

您談到了提高國內營運效率以解決這個問題。

But could you talk a little bit more about what you're doing in terms of penetration by product.

但您能否再多談一下您在產品滲透方面所做的工作？

A lot of these companies have long-standing relationships that you're going to have to compete with.

許多這樣的公司都有長期的合作關係，你將不得不與之競爭。

And how are you doing that in terms of product and in terms of price?

那麼，在產品和價格方面您是如何做到的呢？

Robert, and good to hear from you.

羅伯特，很高興收到你的來信。

Thanks for joining.

感謝您的加入。

So I guess the AT1 question, so I think how best I can answer it, and I think -- I recognize it's challenging for people who are looking at these products day by day and just looking to understand what's put into their models in terms of how we're thinking about these things.

所以我想這是 AT1 的問題，我想我可以最好地回答它，而且我認為——我認識到這對於那些每天關注這些產品並且只是想了解他們的模型中包含了什麼的人來說是一個挑戰，就我們如何看待這些事情而言。

Look, I think the way I think about the FX is more at a portfolio level in a single year.

看，我認為我對外匯的看法更多的是從一年內的投資組合層面來看的。

So the question becomes, going to acceptable levels, do we have a number in mind?

所以問題就成了，達到可接受的水平，我們心中是否有一個數字？

No, but that's how we kind of think about it is that kind of overall portfolio number.

不，但是我們就是這樣認為的，這是一個整體投資組合數字。

In terms of which, is there a one, two, three -- in terms of what we called, we do think about AI on a deal-specific basis.

就其中而言，有一、二、三——就我們所說的而言，我們確實根據具體交易來考慮人工智慧。

But I guess from a -- on a portfolio level, when it comes to capital and when it comes to, I guess, overall investor sentiment.

但我想從投資組合層面來看，當涉及資本以及整體投資者情緒時。

So I can't answer your question directly always as, I guess -- yeah, as transparently as you would like just because of these constraints to manage and operate and -- but the -- from what I can disclose on us at this time.

因此，我想，我無法總是直接回答您的問題——是的，無法像您希望的那樣透明地回答，因為在管理和營運方面存在這些限制——但是——就我目前可以透露的資訊而言。

But yeah, the way to think about it, I think, is that from a -- when I look at the portfolio of these three particular calls, given where things are right now, is that it's not unsociable number of capital that we'd have to be taking in 2025.

但是的，我認為思考這個問題的方式是——當我查看這三個特定電話的投資組合時，考慮到目前的情況，我們在 2025 年必須吸收的資本數量並不是不合時宜的。

Do we have a target around that?

我們有針對此的目標嗎？

No.

不。

But that portfolio, in fact, is something that we're thinking about.

但事實上，我們正​​在考慮這個投資組合。

And then all the other factors that I've talked about on a deal-specific basis about where -- in terms of documentation in the moneyness and market expectations are things just kind of feed into the loop on that.

然後，我在具體交易中談到的所有其他因素，關於貨幣性和市場預期方面的文件，都只是對此進行反饋而已。

So that's how I would answer your question, although that might be not as satisfying as you announced that you would like.

這就是我對你問題的回答，儘管這可能並不像你所宣布的那樣令人滿意。

Robert, it's James.

羅伯特，我是詹姆斯。

On the last question regarding the German Mittelstand, look, obviously, it is one of the signature strength of the German economy.

關於最後一個問題，涉及德國中小企業，顯然，它是德國經濟的標誌性力量之一。

And therefore, banking -- providing banking services and having the relationships with Mittelstand, obviously, super important for our bank and other banks in Germany, and it's a competitive market.

因此，銀行業務——提供銀行服務並與中小企業建立關係，顯然對我們的銀行和德國的其他銀行來說非常重要，這是一個競爭激烈的市場。

We probably deemphasized too much, that segment, now going back a couple of decades.

我們可能過度淡化了這一部分，現在回溯到幾十年前。

And -- but we've been rebuilding our market position steadily over the years, and it does absolutely represent a focus for us strategically.

但多年來，我們一直在穩步重建我們的市場地位，這絕對代表了我們的戰略重點。

Where we are especially competitive in the Mittelstand is obviously where there are significant product demands that are international in nature or capital markets-oriented, so international cash management, trade finance, some of the investment banking products that I talked about earlier in response to the question, I think, from Paul around the investment bank.

我們在中小企業中尤其具有競爭力的地方顯然在於對國際性或資本市場導向的產品需求很大，因此國際現金管理、貿易融資以及我之前在回答保羅關於投資銀行的問題時談到的一些投資銀行產品。

So that is where we have a differentiated market position.

這就是我們的差異化市場地位。

And absolutely, we wish to grow and thrive along with our clients in that marketplace.

當然，我們希望與我們的客戶在該市場一起成長和發展。

I will say -- and I think the question yesterday came up, at least tangentially in connection with potential M&A activity here in our home market, and would it create an opportunity for us, I think the answer to that is yeah.

我想說的是——我認為昨天提出的問題至少與我們本土市場的潛在併購活動間接相關，即它是否會為我們創造機會，我認為答案是肯定的。

But obviously, events are out of our control.

但顯然，事態的發展超出了我們的控制範圍。

But certainly, we intend to prosecute the opportunity and work with clients in the Mittelstand existing and new clients.

但可以肯定的是，我們打算抓住機會並與中小型企業的現有客戶和新客戶合作。

In terms of how to penetrate, look, pricing is interesting.

從如何滲透的角度來看，定價很有趣。

I think one of the SVA challenges that we have is certain portfolios are, in fact, below hurdle, very competitive domestic market here.

我認為，我們面臨的 SVA 挑戰之一是某些投資組合實際上低於門檻，而且國內市場競爭非常激烈。

So credit extension is, in that way, expensive in the German market, but it is something that we look at carefully.

因此，從這個角度來看，在德國市場上信貸擴張的成本很高，但我們會謹慎考慮。

The way you interact with clients, and particularly the technology that you put to work in those -- in that client relationship and the connectivity and kind of the ease of use of access to the services to payments and what have you, is a significant competitive differentiator and it's one that we're seeking to leverage and invest in going forward.

您與客戶互動的方式，特別是您在客戶關係中運用的技術、連接性以及支付服務的易用性等等，都是重要的競爭優勢，我們希望在未來利用並投資於這一優勢。

And so that is an important part of our thinking as well.

這也是我們思考的一個重要部分。

I hope that helps in terms of color, Robert.

我希望這對顏色有幫助，羅伯特。

That color and Richard's color, very helpful.

那個顏色和理查的顏色非常有幫助。

And I know you can't answer all of the questions with specifics.

我知道你無法具體回答所有的問題。

So I greatly appreciate it.

因此我非常感激。

[Ibrahim Redi], Lazard.

[Ibrahim Redi]，拉札德。

Congratulations for the results.

恭喜你所取得的成果。

I first have a comment, maybe from an investor perspective, is that the expectation is absolutely that the three AT1s callable in 2025 should be called.

我首先要說的是，也許是從投資者的角度來看，絕對的預期是 2025 年可贖回的三個 AT1 應該被贖回。

And as credit investors, we would not understand that a couple of basis points of FX impact would affect the call decision.

身為信貸投資者，我們不會理解幾個基點的外匯影響會影響看漲決策。

After that, I have like two questions.

在此之後，我有兩個問題。

Number one, on the call rationale, what you say is that you look at the FX loss at portfolio level in a single year.

第一，關於看漲的理由，您說的是在一年內從投資組合層面來看外匯損失。

Can you give more clarity as what you mean, especially considering that you consider the economics of each transaction on a deal-by-deal basis?

您能否更清楚地解釋您的意思，尤其是考慮到您根據每筆交易的具體情況來考慮其經濟狀況？

So is it, how to put it, a full cap stack economic rationale for the call?

那麼，怎麼說呢，這是這次調用的完全資本堆疊經濟原理嗎？

Or is it a deal-by deal, how do you reconciliate both?

或者這是一項逐筆交易，你如何協調兩者？

Number two is regarding the leverage ratio.

第二是關於槓桿比率。

If you call the three deals this year, the excess Tier 1 drops to EUR5.5 billion from EUR10 billion.

如果今年完成這三筆交易，超額一級資本將從 100 億歐元降至 55 億歐元。

My question is, is there a target there, long term?

我的問題是，那裡有一個長期目標嗎？

Thanks very much for the call and the questions.

非常感謝您的來電和提問。

So well, setting out, I guess, the slight cost between deal-specific and portfolio -- I guess the questions which I get asked in as the format is, is what is the rationale and how to think about it from a modeling perspective as to the likelihood of call, non-call?

那麼，我猜，在特定交易和投資組合之間設定輕微的成本——我想我被問到的問題是，其理由是什麼，以及如何從建模的角度來思考贖回和非贖回的可能性？

And people would expect rational behavior with those decisions.

人們期望我們在做出這些決定時採取理性的行為。

And I think what we've been trying to do on this call, and I guess in previous calls, is just a sort of -- is to raise the things that we as a firm need to take under consideration.

我認為我們在這次電話會議中以及之前的電話會議中試圖做的只是提出我們作為一家公司需要考慮的事情。

So obviously, there's things which -- as people are aware of, whether it's credit spreads, interest rates, volatilities.

顯然，有些事情是人們所熟知的，無論是信用利差、利率或波動性。

Obviously, the FX losses is something that we think about, but also, there's other these kind of more qualitative impacts, which are around the investor expectations, as we're talking about.

顯然，外匯損失是我們考慮的問題，但同時，還有其他更定性的影響，就像我們所談論的，這些影響都與投資者的預期有關。

So obviously, you made your point clear at the start.

很明顯，你一開始就已經明確表達了你的觀點。

And what I was really saying about the portfolio effect is some of these deals have different FX losses, kind of wanted -- one of the things we do think about overall is the overall portfolio impact just because in this particular year, we have just a number of non-euro calls coming due this year.

我真正想說的是，關於投資組合效應，其中一些交易有不同的外匯損失，有點想——我們總體上考慮的事情之一就是整體投資組合的影響，因為在這一年，我們只有一定數量的非歐元看漲期權將於今年到期。

So that's kind of what I was trying to get to.

這正是我想要達到的目的。

And in terms of targets, so we don't have a target for -- as we know, communicated external target for leverage ratio.

就目標而言，我們沒有設定目標——正如我們所知，我們沒有傳達槓桿率的外部目標。

What we do have is -- essentially, how we think about it is we like to internally think that we want to keep above 4.5%.

我們確實有——本質上，我們的想法是，我們喜歡在內部認為我們希望保持在 4.5% 以上。

And over time, which kind of grow our business and organic capital move towards 5%, which is also something which is sort of -- which informs kind of ratio these decisions.

隨著時間的推移，我們的業務和有機資本將成長至 5%，這也是為這些決策提供參考的比例。

So over time, that's where we have an ambition to get to.

所以隨著時間的推移，我們就有志於達到這個目標。

But for the next few quarters, it's going to be more sort of being at these sort of levels, notwithstanding the kind of the internal demand that we see, as I kind of mentioned earlier.

但在接下來的幾個季度中，無論我們看到的內部需求如何，正如我之前提到的，情況仍將保持這種水平。

So those are sort of factors in terms of how we think about the leverage ratio and the direction of travel over time, but we actually have a specific target.

因此，這些都是我們如何考慮槓桿率以及一段時間內的行進方向的因素，但我們實際上有一個特定的目標。

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question.

女士們、先生們，這是最後一個問題。

I would now like to turn the conference back over to Philip Teuchner for any closing remarks.

現在，我想將會議交還給 Philip Teuchner，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, Sergio.

謝謝你，塞爾吉奧。

And just to finish up, thank you all for joining us today.

最後，感謝大家今天的參與。

You know where the IR team is.

您知道 IR 團隊在哪裡。

And if you have any further questions, we look forward to talking to you soon again.

如果您還有其他問題，我們期待很快再次與您交談。

Goodbye.

再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over.

女士們、先生們，會議到此結束。

Thank you for choosing Chorus Call and thank you for participating in the conference.

感謝您選擇Chorus Call，感謝您參加會議。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路了。

Goodbye

再見