Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Q3 2024 fixed income conference call and live webcast. I'm Sandra, the Chorus Call operator. (Operator Instructions) and the conference is being recorded. The conference may not be recorded for publication or broadcast.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 2024 年第三季固定收益電話會議和網路直播。我是桑德拉，合唱呼叫操作員。 （操作員指示）並且正在錄製會議。不得錄音會議以供出版或廣播。

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Philip Teuchner, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

此時此刻，我很高興將投資人關係部門的工作交給 Philip Teuchner。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon or good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. On the call, our Group Treasurer, Richard Stewart, will take us through some fixed income-specific topics. For the subsequent Q&A session, we also have our CFO, James von Moltke, with us to answer your questions. The slides that accompany the topics are available for download from our website at db.com. After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions.

下午好或早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們。在電話會議上，我們的集團財務主管理查德·斯圖爾特（Richard Stewart）將向我們介紹一些固定收益特定主題。在隨後的問答環節中，我們的財務長 James von Moltke 也將與我們一起回答您的問題。主題隨附的投影片可從我們的網站 db.com 下載。演示結束後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

Before we get started, I just want to remind you that the presentation may contain forward-looking statements, which may not develop as we currently expect. Therefore, please take note of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，簡報中可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能不會按照我們目前的預期發展。因此，請注意我們材料末尾的預防警告。

With that, let me hand over to Richard.

接下來，讓我把任務交給理查。

Thank you, Philip, and welcome from me. Our third-quarter and nine-month results show our ongoing strong operating performance, further reinforcing our confidence in our 2024 ambitions and 2025 financial targets. Disciplined execution of our global house bank strategy is driving steadily improving performance and operating leverage. Pre-provision profit grew by 17% year on year to EUR7 billion in the first nine months with operational leverage of 5%, both excluding the Postbank takeover litigation relation impact. Growth was driven by both revenue momentum and cost discipline.

謝謝你，菲利普，也歡迎我的到來。我們的第三季和前九個月的業績顯示了我們持續強勁的經營業績，進一步增強了我們對 2024 年雄心壯志和 2025 年財務目標的信心。我們全球開戶銀行策略的嚴格執行正在推動績效和營運槓桿的穩定提高。前 9 個月撥備前利潤年增 17% 至 70 億歐元，營運槓桿率為 5%，均不包括郵政銀行收購訴訟關係的影響。成長是由收入動力和成本控制推動的。

Nine-month revenues grew 3% year on year with around 75% of revenues coming from more predictable income streams. Reported noninterest revenues were up 14% year on year, with continued strong growth in commissions and fee income of 9%. This demonstrates that our strategy of growing our capital-light businesses is paying off. At the same time, net interest income in our key banking book segments remained stable and better than we anticipated at the beginning of the year. We remain focused on expense discipline, keeping our adjusted cost of EUR15.1 billion or EUR5 billion per quarter, as we continue to offset inflation while allowing for investments by delivering savings through our operational efficiency program. Our cost-to-income ratio, excluding prospect litigation-related impacts, improved to 69% from 73% year on year.

前九個月的營收年增 3%，其中約 75% 的收入來自更可預測的收入流。報告的非利息收入年增 14%，佣金和費用收入持續強勁增長 9%。這顯示我們發展輕資本業務的策略正在發揮成效。同時，我們主要銀行帳戶業務的淨利息收入保持穩定，優於我們年初的預期。我們仍然專注於費用紀律，將調整後的成本保持在每季 151 億歐元或 50 億歐元，同時我們繼續抵消通貨膨脹，同時透過我們的營運效率計畫節省資金來進行投資。我們的成本收入比（不包括潛在訴訟相關影響）從去年同期的 73% 提高至 69%。

Now let's look at the franchise achievements across our businesses on slide 3. The corporate bank increased the number of deals won with multinational clients by 18% compared to the first nine months of the prior year. We also had strong momentum in commissions and fee income, which grew by 5% across all.

現在讓我們來看看幻燈片 3 上我們各業務的特許經營成就。我們的佣金和費用收入也表現強勁，整體成長了 5%。

In the investment bank, we increased our activity so far this year with our priority institutional clients by 11%, demonstrating the ongoing commitment and focus of our business and coverage teams in supporting our clients. The prior bank sees further momentum with EUR27 billion of net inflows and grew noninterest revenues by 5% year on year, driven by higher-margin products and volumes across both client segments. Asset management grew assets under management by EUR67 billion year to date to EUR963 billion. This was boosted by continued strong inflows into our diverse product suite, which will support future revenues.

在投資銀行方面，今年到目前為止，我們與優先機構客戶的活動增加了 11%，這表明我們的業務和覆蓋團隊在支持客戶方面的持續承諾和重點。在兩個客戶群的利潤率較高的產品和交易量的推動下，這家銀行看到了進一步的發展勢頭，淨流入達 270 億歐元，非利息收入同比增長 5%。資產管理今年迄今管理的資產增加了 670 億歐元，達到 9,630 億歐元。這是由於我們多元化產品套件的持續強勁流入所推動的，這將支持未來的收入。

Now let me turn to our progress against our strategic objectives on slide 4. Our third-quarter results demonstrate our continued progress across all three pillars of our global house bank strategy. Starting with revenue growth, our well-diversified and complementary business mix has delivered a compound annual growth rate of 5.6% since 2021, in line with our upgraded target range, and we expect it to increase from here.

現在讓我談談投影片 4 中我們的策略目標的進展。從營收成長開始，我們多元化且互補的業務組合自 2021 年以來實現了 5.6% 的複合年增長率，符合我們升級後的目標範圍，我們預計這一數字將在此基礎上繼續增長。

For the remainder of the year, we anticipate continued momentum in commissions and fee income drive by ongoing high client engagement and our franchise strength while NII remains stable. This gives us full confidence in reaching our revenue ambition of EUR30 billion for the full-year 2024, providing a strong step-off into 2025.

在今年剩餘時間裡，我們預計，透過持續的高客戶參與度和我們的特許經營實力，佣金和費用收入將繼續保持成長勢頭，同時 NII 保持穩定。這讓我們對實現 2024 年全年 300 億歐元的收入目標充滿信心，為邁向 2025 年奠定了堅實的基礎。

Moving to costs, we continue to deliver on our operational efficiency program, having completed measures with delivered or expected gross savings of EUR1.7 billion, almost 70% of our target, with around EUR1.5 billion in savings already realized. We have made further progress on workforce reductions, including 600 FTEs in the third quarter, bringing the total number to more than 90% of the 2024 year-end target. The achieved progress to date and efficiency still in the pipeline will support our adjusted cost run rate for the remainder of 2024 and further reductions in 2025 to meet our objective of around EUR20 billion in noninterest expenses, while continuing to invest in business growth, technology, and controls.

在成本方面，我們繼續實施我們的營運效率計劃，已完成各項措施，已實現或預期節省總額 17 億歐元，幾乎達到我們目標的 70%，並且已經實現了約 15 億歐元的節省。我們在裁員方面取得了進一步進展，其中第三季全職員工人數達到600人，使總數達到2024年年底目標的90%以上。迄今為止的進展和仍在醞釀中的效率將支持我們在2024 年剩餘時間內調整後的成本運行率，並在2025 年進一步削減成本，以實現我們非利息支出約200 億歐元的目標，同時繼續投資於業務成長、技術、和控制。

Lastly, we delivered a further benefit equal to a EUR3 billion RWA reduction in the third quarter, driven by data and process improvements. This brings total RWA reductions from capital efficiency measures to EUR22 billion, which puts us inside of our 2025 target range of EUR25 billion to EUR30 billion more than one year early. We expect to see further reductions from securitizations as well as data and process enhancements, and we continue to work on finding further incremental optimization opportunities to exceed our target.

最後，在數據和流程改善的推動下，我們在第三季實現了相當於 RWA 減少 30 億歐元的進一步效益。這使得資本效率措施的 RWA 減少總額達到 220 億歐元，這使我們提前一年多就實現了 2025 年 250 億至 300 億歐元的目標範圍。我們預計證券化以及數據和流程的增強將進一步減少，並且我們將繼續努力尋找進一步增量優化機會以超越我們的目標。

Let's now turn to provision for credit losses on slide 5. This quarter's provision for credit losses was EUR494 million, equivalent to 41 basis points of average loans. Stage 1 and 2 provisions were on a moderate level as various portfolio effects largely offset increases from softer macroeconomic forecasts and overlay recalibrations in the third quarter. Stage 3 provisions increased sequentially to EUR482 million, mainly driven by the private bank, including transitional Postbank integration effects.

現在讓我們來看看投影片 5 上的信貸損失撥備。第一階段和第二階段準備金處於中等水平，因為各種投資組合效應在很大程度上抵消了宏觀經濟預測疲軟和第三季疊加重新調整帶來的成長。第三階段撥備連續增加至 4.82 億歐元，主要由私人銀行推動，包括過渡性郵政銀行整合效應。

Let me now take you through some additional detail on our provisions on slide 6. This year, we faced several headwinds, which negatively impacted provisions and our full-year guidance for which we do not expect to persist into 2025 at all or in the same magnitude depending on the item. First, the transitional effects from the Postbank integration led to longer-than-expected impacts across our internal collection and recovery processes. We expect these to fade over the coming quarters. Second, we have been dealing with two relatively fast-paced larger corporate events, impacting year-to-date provisions at a level unusual compared to historical standards.

現在讓我向您介紹幻燈片6 上我們的撥備的一些額外細節。不會持續到2025 年，也不會持續到2025 年。首先，郵政銀行整合的過渡效應導致我們的內部收款和回收流程受到的影響超出預期。我們預計這些現象將在未來幾季逐漸消失。其次，我們一直在處理兩起節奏相對較快的大型企業活動，對年初至今的撥備影響程度與歷史標準相比非同尋常。

However, the pretax impact was mitigated by around 70% as these loans benefited from credit concentration hedging. And lastly, our full-year commercial real estate provision run rate has been at a cyclically higher level but has now substantially declined quarter on quarter as envisaged. We continue to see more signs of stabilization, which supports our confidence in a gradual reduction in future provisions. We also see broadly stable developments in our domestic market as outlined on page 22 in the appendix. Our EUR220 billion German loan book is low-risk and well-diversified across businesses, and 70% of the portfolio is either cash collateralized or supported by financial guarantees.

然而，由於這些貸款受益於信貸集中對沖，稅前影響減輕了約 70%。最後，我們的全年商業房地產撥備運行率一直處於週期性較高水平，但現在已按預期逐季度大幅下降。我們繼續看到更多穩定跡象，這支持了我們對未來逐步減少撥備的信心。如附錄第 22 頁所述，我們也看到國內市場整體穩定的發展。我們 2,200 億歐元的德國貸款帳目風險低，業務多元化，70% 的投資組合要麼有現金抵押，要麼有財務擔保支持。

We also have more than EUR12 billion in hedges. More than 3/4 of the book is in the private bank, of which 90% consists of low-risk German retail mortgages. Our corporate loan book is well diversified and of high quality. Exposure is predominantly to multinational corporates and mid caps, with almost 70% of loans rated investment grade.

我們還擁有超過 120 億歐元的對沖資產。超過3/4的帳簿存在私人銀行，其中90%是低風險的德國零售抵押貸款。我們的企業貸款簿多元化且品質高。風險敞口主要針對跨國企業和中型企業，近 70% 的貸款被評為投資等級。

In summary, our portfolio is holding up well and adjusting our reported gross provisions for offsetting effects from recoveries through hedging, which are captured as revenues, our pro forma year-to-date net provisions would have been around 34 basis points. We continue to expect sequential reduction in provisions towards more normalized levels as we go into 2025.

總之，我們的投資組合保持良好，並調整我們報告的總準備金，以抵消透過對沖恢復的影響，這些影響被視為收入，我們預計今年迄今為止的淨準備金約為 34 個基點。我們繼續預計，進入 2025 年，撥備將逐步減少，達到更正常化的水平。

Moving now to the development in our loan and deposit books over the quarter on slide 7. All figures in the commentary are adjusted for FX effects. Overall, loans have remained stable during the third quarter. Within that, targeted growth in FIC financing has continued, driven by new client origination and the acquisition of a collateralized loan portfolio.

現在轉向幻燈片 7 中本季貸款和存款帳簿的發展情況。整體而言，第三季貸款保持穩定。其中，在新客戶的產生和抵押貸款組合收購的推動下，FIC 融資的目標持續成長。

While client demand in the corporate bank remains muted, we see further net reductions in mortgage products, in line with our strategy in the Private Bank. Our well-diversified deposit book increased by EUR15 billion compared to the last quarter. This growth has been most pronounced in the corporate bank with inflows of EUR11 billion, partially supported by further temporary client accommodation activities. In line with previous guidance, we expect corporate bank deposits to normalize again to first half of 2024 levels by year-end. In the appendix, we provide further granularity around the quality of our loan and deposit portfolio.

儘管企業銀行的客戶需求仍然低迷，但我們看到抵押貸款產品進一步淨減少，這與我們在私人銀行的策略一致。與上季相比，我們多元化的存款帳戶增加了 150 億歐元。這種成長在企業銀行中最為明顯，流入量達 110 億歐元，部分原因是進一步的臨時客戶住宿活動的支持。根據先前的指引，我們預期企業銀行存款將在年底前再次正常化至 2024 年上半年的水平。在附錄中，我們進一步詳細介紹了貸款和存款組合的品質。

Let us now have a look at our net interest income on slide 8. We remain well positioned to continue delivering strong net interest income over the coming years, and we will cover the drivers of that over the next pages. NII across our key banking book segments was EUR3.2 billion, and our trajectory continues to outperform our guidance from early in the year. The corporate bank benefited from higher deposit volumes and low margin expansion, offsetting expected BT conversions or their reported NII includes lower levels of CLO recoveries than in the prior quarter. Private bank was stable sequentially, reflecting ongoing strength in deposit revenues.

現在讓我們來看看投影片 8 上的淨利息收入。我們主要銀行帳戶細分市場的NII為32億歐元，我們的發展軌跡持續優於我們年初的指引。該公司銀行受益於較高的存款量和較低的利潤率擴張，抵消了預期的 BT 轉換或其報告的 NII 包括比上一季更低的 CLO 回收水平。私人銀行業務連續穩定，反映出存款收入持續強勁。

The group number reflecting accounting effects, increased by approximately EUR300 million compared to the previous quarter to EUR3.3 billion. This effect was offset by a decrease in noninterest revenues and has no overall revenue impact to the group. Our base case remains that our quarterly run rate will continue to be broadly stable, and we reiterate that we expect full-year banking book NII to remain in line with the EUR13.1 billion reported in 2023. This is despite absorbing a headwind of around EUR150 million versus 2023 for discontinuation of the mineral reserve remuneration. We will provide a more detailed update on expected volume and margin developments for 2025 and beyond in the next quarterly call.

反映會計影響的集團數字比上一季增加了約 3 億歐元，達到 33 億歐元。這一影響被非利息收入的減少所抵消，對集團的整體收入沒有影響。我們的基本情況仍然是，我們的季度運行率將繼續保持大致穩定，並且我們重申，我們預計全年銀行賬簿NII將與2023年報告的131億歐元保持一致。 ，停止礦產儲備報酬為1.5 億歐元。我們將在下一個季度電話會議中提供有關 2025 年及以後的預期銷售和利潤發展的更詳細更新。

Turning to slide 9. You can see that our hedging strategy has positioned us well for a declining rate environment. The numbers on the slide are based on the market-implied forward curves as per the end of September. Our hedge portfolio stabilizes our net income by extending the tenor of interest rate risk, but it also protects us against a drop in interest rates. And to that end, we have increased the notional of our hedge portfolio over the last 12 to 18 months in response to the slower-than-expected rise in deposit betas.

轉向投影片 9。幻燈片上的數字是基於 9 月底的市場隱含遠期曲線。我們的對沖投資組合透過延長利率風險的期限來穩定我們的淨利潤，但它也可以保護我們免受利率下降的影響。為此，我們在過去 12 至 18 個月內增加了對沖投資組合的名目金額，以因應存款貝塔係數成長慢於預期的情況。

The weighted average maturity of our hedges is around five years. Based on current forward rates, we expect the income from the hedge book to grow by EUR300 million to EUR400 million each year as we roll maturing hedges. As such, we expect the hedge portfolio to provide a long-term tailwind to our revenues at current forward rates. With respect to 2025, more than 90% of the income is already locked in with existing positions.

我們對沖的加權平均期限約為五年。根據目前的遠期匯率，隨著我們對沖到期的對沖展期，我們預計對沖帳簿的收入將每年增加 3 億歐元至 4 億歐元。因此，我們預計對沖投資組合將以當前遠期匯率為我們的收入提供長期推動力。到2025年，90%以上的收入已經鎖定在現有部位。

Now looking at page 10, we can see the impact of our risk management strategy in the NII sensitivity to changes in rates. The low sensitivity implies that shifts in the yield curve would have limited impact on our reported NII and any impact would increase slightly over time given the duration of our hedge book. We have a relatively NII sensitivity and, therefore, expect to be well positioned to deliver stable NII through the remainder of the rate cycle.

現在看第 10 頁，我們可以看到我們的風險管理策略對 NII 對利率變化的敏感度的影響。低敏感性意味著殖利率曲線的變化對我們報告的NII的影響有限，考慮到我們對沖帳本的期限，任何影響都會隨著時間的推移而略有增加。我們對NII具有相對敏感性，因此預計能夠在利率週期的剩餘時間內提供穩定的NII。

Turning to capital on slide 11. Our third-quarter common equity Tier 1 ratio came in at 13.8%, 30 basis points higher compared to the previous quarter. The increase was largely driven by CET1 capital reflecting strong earnings net of deductions and approximately EUR790 million or 22-basis-point positive effect from the adoption of the Article 468 CRR transitional rule for unrealized gains and losses.

轉向投影片 11 上的資本。這一成長主要是由 CET1 資本推動的，反映了扣除扣除額後的強勁盈利，以及採用第 468 條 CRR 未實現損益過渡規則帶來的約 7.9 億歐元或 22 個基點的積極影響。

Risk-weighted assets increased for market risk and credit risk. The credit risk ROA increase was driven by model impacts and business growth mostly offset by reductions from capital efficiency measures. Lower operational risk RWA was driven by the partial release of the Postbank takeover litigation provision. Our capital ratios remain well above regulatory requirements as shown on slide 12. The CET1 MDA buffer now stands at 261 basis points or EUR9 billion of CET1 capital.

市場風險和信用風險的風險加權資產增加。信用風險資產報酬率的增加是由模型影響推動的，而業務成長大部分被資本效率指標的減少所抵銷。營運風險 RWA 降低是由於郵政銀行收購訴訟條款的部分解除所致。我們的資本比率仍遠高於監管要求，如投影片 12 所示。

This is 31 basis points higher quarter-on-quarter, reflecting the increase of our CET1 ratio. The buffer to the total capital requirement increased by 9 basis points and now stands at 287 basis points. The increase was primarily driven by the higher CET1 ratio, which was partially offset by lower Tier 2 capital. The reduction in Tier 2 capital as a result of using IFRS carrying amounts as a measurement basis, replacing paid in amounts reflecting latest EBA guidance.

這比上一季高出 31 個基點，反映出我們的 CET1 比率的增加。總資本要求的緩衝增加了 9 個基點，目前為 287 個基點。這一增長主要是由較高的 CET1 比率推動的，但部分被較低的二級資本所抵消。由於使用 IFRS 帳面金額作為計量基礎，取代了反映最新 EBA 指導的已付金額，導致二級資本減少。

Moving to slide 13. At the end of the third quarter, our leverage ratio was 4.6%, flat sequentially as higher leverage exposure for securities financing transactions and trading assets driven by client activities offset an increase in Tier 1 capital in line with the CET1 capital development. We continue to operate with a significant loss-absorbing capacity what above all requirements as shown on slide 14. The MREL surface, our most binding constraint, increased by EUR4 billion and now stands at EUR21 billion at the end of the quarter. The increase reflects higher MREL supply from new senior nonpreferred issuance, while higher CET1 capital was offset by lower Tier 2 capital, reflecting the change in the measurement basis following the latest EBA guidance. Our surface thus remains at a comfortable level, which continues to provide us with the flexibility to pause issue new eligible liabilities instruments for approximately one year.

轉向幻燈片 13。發展。我們繼續以顯著的損失吸收能力運營，這高於幻燈片 14 所示的所有要求。這一增長反映了新的高級非優先發行帶來的 MREL 供應增加，而較高的 CET1 資本被較低的二級資本所抵消，反映了最新 EBA 指南後衡量基礎的變化。因此，我們的表面保持在一個舒適的水平，這繼續為我們提供了暫停發行新的合格債務工具大約一年的靈活性。

On slide 15, we highlight the development of our key liquidity metrics with the daily average liquidity coverage ratio of 137% during the quarter. We operated with a sound liquidity position. The quarter end stock of EUR230 billion of HQLA of which we continue to hold about 95% in cash and level 1 securities increased over the quarter and was mainly driven by the deposit growth in the corporate bank. Our spot for liquidity as ratio was materially unchanged at 135%, representing a surface above the regulatory minimum of EUR60 billion. The increase in HQLA was broadly offset by an increase in net cash outflows.

在投影片 15 中，我們重點介紹了關鍵流動性指標的發展情況，本季日均流動性覆蓋率為 137%。我們的營運流動性狀況良好。季末HQLA存量為2,300億歐元，其中我們繼續持有約95%的現金和一級證券，本季有所增加，主要是受公司銀行存款成長的推動。我們的現貨流動性比率基本上保持在 135% 不變，高於 600 億歐元的監管最低水準。優質流動資產的增加被淨現金流出的增加所大致抵銷。

The net stable funding ratio was also unchanged at 122% and reflects the stability of our funding base, more than 2/3 of the group's stable funding sources coming from deposits. The service above regulatory requirements increased slightly to EUR112 billion.

淨穩定資金比率也維持在122%不變，反映了我們資金基礎的穩定性，集團超過2/3的穩定資金來源來自存款。高於監管要求的服務略有增加，達到 1,120 億歐元。

Moving now to our issuance plan on slide 16. Our credit spreads developed well quarter on quarter, particularly in the capital space, where we've seen a double-digit spread compression and an outperformance versus our peers. Since the last fixed income call at the end of July, we have issued a little over EUR3 billion, taking our year-to-date total to EUR16 billion, largely completing our plan for the year.

現在轉到幻燈片 16 上的發行計劃。自 7 月底上次固定收益電話會議以來，我們已發行了略高於 30 億歐元的資金，使年初至今的總發行量達到 160 億歐元，基本上完成了今年的計劃。

The quarter-on-quarter change was mainly driven by the $2.5 billion senior nonpreferred dual tranche transaction in September. This transaction was well received by investors, and the order book was more than 5 times oversubscribed, representing one of our largest dollar order books for such transaction. Regarding our 2025 issuance plan, it is too early to provide precise guidance. However, we expect something similar to 2034 activities. Depending on market conditions, we may consider prefunding some of the 2025 requirements in the fourth quarter.

這一季度環比變化主要是由 9 月 25 億美元的高級非優先雙檔交易推動的。本次交易受到投資人好評，訂單簿超額認購超過5倍，是我們此類交易中最大的美元訂單簿之一。對於我們2025年的發行計劃，現在提供準確的指導還為時過早。不過，我們預期會出現與 2034 年類似的活動。根據市場情況，我們可能會考慮在第四季度為 2025 年的部分需求提供資金。

To reiterate on our intentions regarding potential calls for AT1 instruments in 2025, we take these decisions based on several factors, including capital demand, refinancing levels versus recent potential FX effects as well as market expectations. It is worth noting that this may result in different decisions based on the features of each individual bond and that all core decisions require prior regulatory approval. As mentioned previously, you can expect us to take a decision close to the call date in 2025. Before going to your questions, let me conclude with a summary on slide 17. Our ongoing performance demonstrates the successful execution of our strategy.

為了重申我們關於 2025 年可能需要 AT1 工具的意圖，我們根據多種因素做出這些決定，包括資本需求、再融資水準與近期潛在的外匯影響以及市場預期。值得注意的是，這可能會導致根據每隻債券的特徵做出不同的決定，並且所有核心決策都需要事先獲得監管部門的批准。如前所述，您可以期待我們在 2025 年的召集日期附近做出決定。

Our revenue trajectory remains on track to EUR30 billion for the year on the path to our goal of EUR32 billion in 2025. We expect to further reduce our adjusted cost run rate close to EUR4.9 billion in the coming quarters to allow us to achieve around EUR20 billion of noninterest expenses in 2025. The reduction should come through a combination of ongoing cost discipline and benefits from our efficiency and tactical measures. We expect reported provision for credit losses for 2024 to land at around EUR1.8 billion, higher than our prior guidance, but we continue to expect a amelioration, which will follow next year as the transitory headwinds we have called out will pass, leaning towards more normalized levels.

我們今年的營收軌跡仍將達到300 億歐元，並朝著2025 年320 億歐元的目標邁進。實現約到 2025 年，非利息支出將達到 200 億歐元。我們預計2024 年報告的信貸損失準備金將達到18 億歐元左右，高於我們先前的指導，但我們仍然預計情況會有所改善，隨著我們所呼籲的短暫逆風將過去，這種情況將在明年出現更規範化的層次。

Our issuance plan for the year is largely complete, and we may consider opportunistic pre-funding of our 2025 requirements this quarter. Our full focus remains on the execution of our own strategy.

我們今年的發行計劃已基本完成，我們可能會考慮在本季對 2025 年的需求進行機會性預先融資。我們的全部重點仍然是執行我們自己的策略。

With that, let's just turn to your questions.

那麼，讓我們來回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Lee Street, Citigroup.

李街，花旗集團。

I have three questions, please. Firstly, could you just clarify your NII path for 2025? And just help explain that in the context of the rate sensitivity that you show on your slides. Secondly, do you believe that the proposed MDI deposit preference proposal might risk creating systemic risk for banks stripped of liabilities and only [priority] with preferred seniors and therefore could make counterparties being more skittish in times of market volatility.

我有三個問題，請教。首先，您能否澄清一下 2025 年的 NII 路徑？只是在幻燈片上顯示的速率敏感性的背景下幫助解釋這一點。其次，您是否認為擬議的 MDI 存款偏好提議可能會給被剝奪負債且僅優先考慮優先老年人的銀行帶來系統性風險，因此可能會使交易對手在市場波動時更加不安。

And then finally, on the H1 topic that you raised. As it relates to PetrolFX losses when you look at calls, should we just be thinking about the absolute level of those potential losses and then compare that versus the actual levels of spreads and when I think about the economics in that way. That will be my three questions.

最後，關於您提出的 H1 主題。當您查看看漲期權時，它與 PetrolFX 損失相關，我們是否應該只考慮這些潛在損失的絕對水平，然後將其與點差的實際水平進行比較，以及當我以這種方式思考經濟學時。這將是我的三個問題。

And so I'll take, I guess, all three questions, I think. So James has joined me in the room, as he might pipe up for a few of the responses.

所以我想我會回答所有三個問題。所以詹姆斯加入了我的房間，因為他可能會提出一些回應。

But taking into consideration of your first question, so this is a topic which kind of came on the equity call yesterday in a few different ways. So let me try and put together the various elements and give you an overview. First is the base case outlook for 2025. As I was saying in the -- in my early remarks, we're exceeding our guidance for 2024 and now expect to end the year flat to our 2023 print, which was EUR13.1 billion across the key banking book segments.

但考慮到你的第一個問題，這個主題在昨天的股權電話會議上以幾種不同的方式出現。因此，讓我嘗試將各種元素放在一起，並向您提供一個概述。首先是 2025 年的基本情境展望。銀行帳戶部分。

And for the private bank, we believe we've just passed the low point in the NII run rate, so from next quarter, we will see an ongoing increase as the structural hedges roll over. We keep originating a high-quality lending front book. On the core bank side, we expect the bottom to be in the next quarter, and next year, we will see low margins expand and deposit volumes grow. And as James said yesterday on the call, we also have some specific dollar hedges, which carry negatively at the moment but mature before the end of the year.

對於私人銀行來說，我們相信我們剛剛度過了NII運行率的低點，因此從下個季度開始，隨著結構性對沖的延續，我們將看到NII運行率持續增長。我們不斷創作高品質的貸款封面書籍。在核心銀行方面，我們預計下個季度將觸底，明年，我們將看到低利潤率擴大，存款量成長。正如詹姆斯昨天在電話會議上所說，我們還有一些特定的美元對沖，這些對沖目前具有負面影響，但會在今年年底前成熟。

And then completeness in our big financing businesses, we have grown our loan portfolio this quarter both with new client business as well as portfolio acquisition. And we intend to keep growing this business over time as part of our strategic plan, and that will, of course, cover some incremental NII to the top line. All of that comes together to go is a fairly significant tailwind going to 2025. Yesterday's, Christian was guiding to an all-in sequential improvement of around EUR500 million, which is a reasonable guide.

然後是我們大型融資業務的完整性，本季我們透過新客戶業務和投資組合收購擴大了貸款組合。作為我們策略計劃的一部分，我們打算隨著時間的推移不斷發展這項業務，當然，這將涵蓋一些增量的NII。所有這些加在一起，對 2025 年來說是一個相當大的推動力。

And given where we are in our planning cycle right now, we will give more precise guidance and numbers and drivers with our fourth-quarter results. Then when we talk about sensitivity, we have significantly hedged our exposure to interest rates in 2024 and in 2025, as you can see from the slides. And what you can see is that the hedge portfolio is carrying -- currently carrying an average yield of 1.2%.

鑑於我們目前處於規劃週期的階段，我們將在第四季度的業績中提供更準確的指導、數位和驅動因素。然後，當我們談論敏感度時，我們已經對 2024 年和 2025 年的利率風險進行了大幅對沖，正如您從幻燈片中看到的那樣。你可以看到，對沖投資組合目前的平均報酬率為 1.2%。

But within that, we have historical hedges, it's at much lower rates, which will kind of roll off next year in subsequent years. And as we do, we will then replace roughly around sort of 10% of the book, give or take, on an annual basis at sort of the current market rates, which may [consider] market implied rates we have on there, which is significantly higher than the hedging which should then be rolling off. And that kind of gives us the additional rollover benefit that you can see in the slides. And the dark blue line tells you the NI which is locked in, and the blue line is really that sort of the benefits of that rollover depending on where market implied rates are. But as long as they are above, the hedges should roll off. That will be a positive for us.

但其中，我們有歷史對沖，其利率要低得多，這將在明年的隨後幾年中下降。正如我們所做的那樣，我們將每年以當前的市場利率替換大約 10% 左右的書本，給予或接受，這可能會[考慮]我們在那裡的市場隱含利率，即明顯高於隨後應該滾動的對沖。這給我們帶來了額外的展期收益，您可以在幻燈片中看到。深藍色的線告訴你被鎖定的NI，藍色的線實際上是根據市場隱含利率的滾動帶來的好處。但只要它們在上面，樹籬就應該滾下來。這對我們來說將是積極的。

And so because of this hedging, we just have a remaining exposure to short-term rates, and so the increase -- sort of the market policy rates moving is not going to have a (inaudible) on the outlook for 2025. And so that gives you a bit of a flavor. And then even if the rates were to go below 1%, for example, at some point, we sort of get into the sort of margin compression area for us as well as for other banks, then we have some option strategies in place to mitigate that impact as well. So hopefully that answers your question on the NII.

因此，由於這種對沖，我們只剩下短期利率的風險敞口，因此市場政策利率的增加不會對 2025 年的前景產生（聽不清楚）影響。然後，即使利率低於 1%，例如，在某個時候，我們以及其他銀行都會進入某種利潤壓縮區域，然後我們會採取一些選擇策略來緩解也有這種影響。希望這能回答您關於 NII 的問題。

Question two was around CMDI. It's a good question. I think the way way of thinking about it is -- I mean, first of all, it's still legislation, which is going to come into play until 2026 the earliest. So I guess still room to work through. As you know, from a senior preferred perspective, which I guess is what leads to the capital structure could be impacted by these then we have limited exposure there. We don't have any deposits in our MREL stack.

問題二是關於 CMDI 的。這是一個好問題。我認為思考這個問題的方式是——我的意思是，首先，它仍然是立法，最早要到 2026 年才會生效。所以我想仍有解決的空間。如您所知，從高級優先的角度來看，我猜這就是導致資本結構可能受到這些影響的原因，那麼我們在那裡的曝險有限。我們的 MREL 堆疊中沒有任何存款。

And at the moment what we can see some of the -- in terms of the language, the counts of the parliaments tax diverge to an extent as well. So I think there's still going to be more to play out here in terms of what the fund tax lands at. And then in terms of derivatives, there is an ability of the SLB to exclude from the bailing to avoid systemic issues or inability to conduct an appropriate valuation. And so we are cognizant of it, but I don't think it's going to be material for our business. And I guess as things become clearer from the proposals as they sort of become more finalized and further then, we'll be able to update you in terms of what the implications will be for us.

目前我們可以看到，就語言而言，議會的稅收計數也有一定程度的分歧。因此，我認為就基金稅的徵收範圍而言，仍有更多問題需要解決。然後就衍生性商品而言，SLB有能力將其排除在救助之外，以避免系統性問題或無法進行適當的估值。所以我們認識到這一點，但我認為這對我們的業務不會有實質影響。我想，隨著提案變得更加最終確定和進一步，事情會變得更加清晰，我們將能夠向您通報這對我們的影響的最新情況。

And then in terms of AT1 pricing as you think about the calls. So as you right -- so we have three quarters next year, still weighs off for a couple of them, six months than one year or the other. What we're -- how we think about that -- I mean, that's kind of to call or not call strategy is kind of actually part of our planning process we have right now. But in terms of pricing of that, it is as you kind of laid out in terms of the how we think about replacement values, how you think about the kind of credit spreads, how we think about the sort of historical FX balances on sort of the our all of which kind of come in to our overall decision-making in its entirety.

然後，當您考慮通話時，就 AT1 定價而言。正如你所言，明年我們有三個季度，其中的幾個季度仍然很重要，六個月比一年或其他一年要好。我們是什麼——我們如何看待這一點——我的意思是，無論是否稱之為策略，實際上都是我們現在規劃流程的一部分。但就定價而言，正如您所闡述的那樣，我們如何看待重置價值，如何看待信用利差，我們如何看待歷史外匯餘額我們所有的一切都會影響我們的整體決策。

Soumya Sarkar, Barclays.

蘇米亞·薩卡，巴克萊銀行。

I have two questions. The first one, when you mentioned credit provisions, you highlighted that there was a mitigation of around 70% on the corporate events due to credit concentration hedging. Could you elaborate a bit more on this? Is it related to SRTs, and where are you getting the benefit? Is it in revenues? So if you could kind of expand on that? That's question one.

我有兩個問題。第一個，當您提到信貸撥備時，您強調由於信貸集中對沖，企業事件減少了約 70%。能詳細說明一下嗎？它與 SRT 有關嗎？是在收入嗎？那麼您是否可以對此進行擴充？這是問題一。

And the second question, you also mentioned that the reduction of Tier 2 capital of around 21, 22 bps and that was because of the EBA guidelines change from the monitoring report. Again, if you could elaborate on what the change was, and did it only affect the Tier 2 part of the capital stack. And does it affect your go-forward issuance strategy in any way how you come for the debt, et cetera. So how do you -- is there any steps you can take to respond to this change? Those would be my two questions.

第二個問題，您也提到二級資本減少了約21、22個基點，這是因為EBA指導方針與監測報告發生了變化。再次，如果您能詳細說明變化是什麼，以及它是否只影響資本堆疊的第二層部分。它是否會以任何方式影響你的後續發行策略，例如你如何償還債務等等。那麼，您可以採取什麼措施來應對這項變化呢？這是我的兩個問題。

So thanks for the question. It's James. I'll take the first part. Yes, you're right. I mean the credit protection for the particular items we've called out this year, is typically in the form of funded CLOs, and the accounting that is the best we can achieve for that is that we essentially gross up credit loss provisions and the benefit of credit protection that the CLOs provide comes back in revenues.

謝謝你的提問。是詹姆斯。我將採取第一部分。是的，你說得對。我的意思是，我們今年提出的特定項目的信用保護通常採用融資 CLO 的形式，而我們對此所能實現的最佳會計方法是，我們基本上將信用損失準備金和收益相加。的信用保護的一部分會以收入形式回歸。

There are, I would say, to add to that, some credit protection structures where the accounting is more friendly, in other words, nets inside the CLP line. But for these specific protection structures, there is this, I'll call it, geography asymmetry that takes place. And so it's like and other SRT structure is not always possible to get it all in the CLP line.

我想說的是，除此之外，還有一些會計更友善的信用保護結構，換句話說，就是 CLP 線內的網路。但對於這些特定的保護結構，我稱之為地理不對稱。因此，其他 SRT 結構並不總是能夠在 CLP 行中獲得所有內容。

Understood.

明白了。

Yeah. So I guess on the two, please. So one, first of all, there's no impact to AT1 regulatory capital from from this guidance given IFRS already classifies AT1 as equity instrument. And then in terms of the Tier 2 piece, it's more just a change in approach from the sort of the rather than reflecting in capital, the proceeds amount at origination, you just have to reflect the IFRS carrying them out. And so that's kind of what kind of drove the change in reporting this quarter.

是的。所以我猜想是這兩個。因此，首先，鑑於 IFRS 已將 AT1 歸類為權益工具，本指南不會對 AT1 監理資本產生影響。然後就第二級而言，這更多的是方法上的改變，而不是反映在資本中，發起時的收益金額，你只需要反映執行它們的國際財務報告準則。這就是推動本季報告發生變化的原因。

So we do -- I guess there was a follow the question, which is, we don't expect to offset this reduction with further Tier 2 issuances if that was your question.

所以我們這樣做——我想有一個後續問題，那就是，如果這是你的問題，我們不希望透過進一步的二級發行來抵消這一減少。

And so you don't expect to do, and it doesn't affect your senior nonpreferred branch. That doesn't come into the same purview.

所以你不希望這樣做，而且它不會影響你的高級非首選分支。這不屬於同一權限。

Sorry, I didn't quite understand the question. Can you just repeat it?

抱歉，我不太明白這個問題。你能重複一遍嗎？

Yeah. I was just asking if that change on the measurement of Tier 2 is just to the Tier 2, and I understand not AT1s, but does it impact senior nonpreferred senior and senior preferred or that is --

是的。我只是問 Tier 2 衡量標準的變化是否僅適用於 Tier 2，據我所知，這不是 AT1，但它是否會影響高級非首選高級和高級首選，或者是——

Yeah, there's no impact. So yes, there's no backlogs in the senior nonpreferred or senior preferred.

是的，沒有影響。所以，是的，高級非首選或高級首選沒有積壓。

[Ibrahim Saeed] JPMorgan.

[易卜拉欣·賽義德]摩根大通。

Hello, can you hear me now?

你好，現在你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can hear you now. Go ahead, Ibrahim.

是的，我們現在可以聽到你的聲音。繼續吧，易卜拉欣。

I appreciate all the color you've given around the AT1. I just had one question there. In looking at -- you mentioned that all the factors that play into the call decisions for each of the different bonds that are coming up for call, would the fact that any individual bond is coming up for its first call versus a bond that's, let's say, skipped the call previously, does that also factor into your decision process?

我很欣賞您為 AT1 提供的所有顏色。我只是有一個問題。在研究中，您提到了影響即將贖回的每種不同債券的贖回決策的所有因素，事實上，任何單獨的債券都將進行第一次贖回，而不是債券，讓我們比如說，之前跳過了電話，這也會影響您的決策過程嗎？

So I'll answer the question slightly different way. So I think the features of all our instruments, we kind of -- certainly were accomplished in or kind so that sort of documentation you want, so I think it's not something we ascribe significant difference to. We're kind of more interested in, I guess, the sort of the overall market reaction or market perception of our actions around the call and doing something in a transparent and rational way, taking into account all of our shareholders. So that could be how I would think about the answer to your question.

所以我會以稍微不同的方式來回答這個問題。所以我認為我們所有儀器的功能，我們肯定是在您想要的那種文件中完成的，所以我認為這不是我們認為有顯著差異的東西。我想，我們更感興趣的是整體市場反應或市場對我們圍繞電話會議採取的行動的看法，以及以透明和理性的方式做某事，並考慮到我們所有的股東。這可能就是我如何思考你的問題的答案。

Robert Smalley, BerryDunn.

羅伯特‧史莫利、貝瑞‧鄧恩。

Just a couple of quick questions and follow-ups on CRE and the German economy. Clear that you're now in the back end of the CRE restructuring. Could you give us some sense of, and I know deals are unique, but could you give us some sense of restructurings and what kind of write-downs you're taking and what the structures of the deals are?

只是幾個關於 CRE 和德國經濟的簡短問題和後續行動。顯然，您現在正處於商業房地產重組的後期。我知道交易是獨一無二的，你能給我們一些關於重組的感覺嗎？

And once you've done this geography of the exposure, does it go back into performing what's left? And also, have you given yourself the opportunity to make some recoveries if possible? That's on CRE. On the German economy, we're continuing to see slow growth/recession type of numbers. Number one, are you seeing weakness in services as well as you are in manufacturing.

一旦你完成了曝光的地理分佈，它會回到執行剩下的部分嗎？另外，如果可能的話，您是否給了自己恢復的機會？這是CRE上的。在德國經濟方面，我們持續看到緩慢成長/衰退類型的數據。第一，您是否看到服務業和製造業的弱點。

Two, is this manifesting itself in other portfolios like your high net worth portfolio, et cetera? And then three, is your forecast driving some of the model-driven reserving that you've done or model-driven provisioning that you've done in the quarter?

第二，這是否也體現在其他投資組合中，例如您的高淨值投資組合等？第三，您的預測是否會推動您在本季所做的一些模型驅動的預留或模型驅動的供應？

I'll try to be as brief as possible. The CRE typically, the modifications involve the sponsors adding equity into the structure in exchange for the banks offering concessions in the rollover or extension or refinancing of the credit. That is the typical path. I mean, there are certainly instances where it becomes real estate owned if the sponsor is step away. And there are instances where the banks are asked to do a little bit less just because it's -- there isn't an alignment of interest based on the value of the portfolio or the property.

我會盡量簡短。通常，商業房地產的修改涉及發起人在結構中增加股權，以換取銀行在信貸展期、延期或再融資方面做出讓步。這就是典型的路徑。我的意思是，在某些情況下，如果贊助商離開，它就會變成房地產。在某些情況下，銀行被要求少做一點，只是因為沒有根據投資組合或財產的價值調整利益。

Most of what we're taking today in the provisions, as it was last quarter, remains incremental valuation adjustments on already defaulted loans rather than new defaults. And that has been, again, an indicator that has underscored some of our sort of confidence about the direction of travel. Obviously, we look to a time when there won't be valuation adjustments anymore on the defaulted portfolio either. And we think that will come.

與上季一樣，我們今天在撥備中採取的大部分措施仍然是對已違約貸款的增量估值調整，而不是新的違約貸款。這又成為一個指標，強調了我們對前進方向的某種信心。顯然，我們預期違約投資組合也將不再進行估值調整。我們認為那將會到來。

Are we positioned for recovery? Sure. I mean, obviously, some of the -- these are in Stage 3 life of loan numbers and if the properties improve because of lease activity or maybe a sale of the property and it gets refinanced into other hands, that can certainly produce recoveries. But of course, we look to, again, book to life of loan losses with a weighted average assessment of the likelihood of certain outcomes. Loans that go through modifications don't all become performing right away, although they obviously -- often they will graduate from Stage 3 back to Stage 2 and then in time performing if they're sort of operating with no concerns in terms of ability to pay and in valuation.

我們是否已做好復健準備？當然。我的意思是，顯然，其中一些處於貸款數字的第三階段，如果房產由於租賃活動或可能出售房產而得到改善，並且可以再融資到其他人手中，那肯定可以產生回收。但當然，我們再次希望透過對某些結果的可能性進行加權平均評估來記錄貸款損失的期限。經過修改的貸款並不都會立即發揮作用，儘管它們顯然通常會從第 3 階段回到第 2 階段，然後及時發揮作用，如果它們的運營不存在能力方面的問題的話。

Certainly, to the German economy, you're right, slow growth. We had been hopeful that the German colony would turn the corner already in the second half of this year, and that seems to be not materializing. You're asking about the service sector. I think the service sector is still growing, the last statistics I've looked at. So there has been some strength in the service sector, offset by weakness in manufacturing. Building trades and real estate to like our observations appears to have found a floor. And I mean, if it's recovering, it's recovering slowly, but it's no longer the drag that it has been to GDP growth over the past several years.

當然，對於德國經濟來說，你是對的，成長緩慢。我們曾希望德國殖民地能夠在今年下半年扭轉局面，但這似乎沒有實現。你問的是服務業。我認為，根據我查看的最新統計數據，服務業仍在成長。因此，服務業有一定的實力，但被製造業的疲軟所抵消。與我們的觀察結果相似的建築業和房地產似乎已經找到了底部。我的意思是，如果它正在復蘇，那麼它正在緩慢復甦，但它不再像過去幾年那樣拖累GDP成長。

I guess, the one other thing to point out is that employment while it's ticked up, unemployment rather ticked up ever so slightly, it's still at relatively good levels on a historic comparison. And I think the market is still tight rather than loose in terms of labor conditions. Has it fed to high net worth? No, I don't see a great deal of connection between those two, sort of the German economy and the quality of our high net worth portfolios. Obviously, it can have an impact on collateral values and so changes in the market, including real estate, but by and large, the health of the -- of our high net worth sort of client base and portfolios are linked to their own circumstances, commercial and private circumstances.

我想，另一件事要指出的是，雖然就業有所上升，但失業率略有上升，但與歷史比較相比，仍處於相對較好的水平。而且我認為，就勞動條件而言，市場仍然是緊張而不是寬鬆。它是否滿足了高淨值人士的需求？不，我不認為這兩者之間有很大的聯繫，例如德國經濟和我們高淨值投資組合的品質。顯然，它可能會對抵押品價值產生影響，因此包括房地產在內的市場變化，但總的來說，我們的高淨值客戶群和投資組合的健康狀況與他們自身的情況有關，商業和私人情況。

We do in many of these portfolios mark to model, much less in Stage 3. And so I think the answer to your question is there can be recoveries for sure. As as exposures roll back from Stage 3 and become performing again, the model and also Stage 2, for that matter after Stage 1, the model credit loss allowances can be released back into earnings. As you've seen in some of our statistics, we do think there are -- and we call this out particularly in related to the Postbank sort of collections disruptions, we do think some of those exposures that are now reported in Stage 3 will roll back to the stages 2 and 1, and the relatively modest model allowance that is being built would come back into earnings.

我們在許多投資組合中都按照模型進行標記，更不用說在第三階段了。當風險從第三階段回滾並再次表現時，模型以及第二階段（在第一階段之後）就可以將模型信用損失準備金釋放回收益中。正如您在我們的一些統計數據中看到的那樣，我們確實認為存在 - 我們特別指出與郵政銀行類型的收款中斷有關的情況，我們確實認為現在在第三階段報告的一些風險將會滾動回到第二階段和第一階段，正在建立的相對溫和的模型津貼將重新計入收益。

Hope that covers everything, Robert.

希望這能涵蓋一切，羅伯特。

Dan David, Autonomous.

丹大衛，自治。

Just got a couple of topics I want to cover, and unfortunately, they mentioned already, but they're just slightly different angles. The first one is just on CRE. I think on the equity call, you might have mentioned that you are looking to be a seller of a CRE portfolio. Is it right to assume some of the Stage 2 top-up was related to getting the marks in line with what you need to have to be able to sell? And can you just talk about the prospects here?

剛剛有幾個我想討論的主題，不幸的是，他們已經提到了，但它們只是角度略有不同。第一個是在 CRE 上。我認為在股權電話會議上，您可能會提到您希望成為商業房地產投資組合的賣方。假設第二階段的一些儲值與使分數符合您銷售所需的分數有關，是否正確？能簡單談談這裡的前景嗎？

How do you see market? Do you think you'll be able to offload that portfolio in, say, a year's time? And how do you see yourself going forward? Is there potentially more sales coming? That's just on CRE.

您如何看待市場？您認為您能夠在一年後出售該投資組合嗎？您如何看待自己的未來？是否會有更多的銷售機會？這只是 CRE 上的內容。

The second kind of topic is on AT1 calls, and apologies for going there again, but clearly, it's a focus on the market. So if I look at the bonds callable in April, the 7.5% is trading to call and the 4.789 is not or partially not. Is that the right way the market should be looking at it? And I know you've talked about FX, but is LIBOR an impact on how you see those calls as well and what you've done with the resets?

第二個主題是關於 AT1 電話，很抱歉再次回到那裡，但顯然，這是對市場的關注。因此，如果我查看 4 月份的可贖回債券，7.5% 的債券可贖回，而 4.789 的債券則不可贖回或部分不可贖回。這是市場看待它的正確方式嗎？我知道您已經談論過外匯，但 LIBOR 是否也會影響您如何看待這些電話以及您對重置所做的事情？

And then finally, I guess, you mentioned that there's really strong demand for your name in primary. So I'm trying to work out what's stopping you from doing an LME and printing an AT1 at the moment. So if you could print, let's say, 100 basis points within the reset, would you see that as economic?

最後，我想，你提到初選時對你的名字的需求非常強烈。因此，我正在嘗試找出目前阻止您進行 LME 和列印 AT1 的原因。因此，如果您可以在重置期間列印 100 個基點，您會認為這經濟嗎？

It's James, I'll take the CRE sales question and then leave Richard to speak about the AT1. We put that portfolio into the market in early August. And it's -- I mean, subject to pricing and other terms, it would be our intention to transact on it. It's approaching EUR1 billion. It's obviously higher in dollars.

我是 James，我將回答 CRE 銷售問題，然後讓 Richard 談談 AT1。我們在八月初將該投資組合投入市場。我的意思是，根據定價和其他條款，我們打算進行交易。接近10億歐元。以美元計算顯然更高。

I think it's about $1 billion, a little less in euros we have received bids. And so in these things, you work through the bids and the bid packages, if you like. And so we have marked to the bid levels or where we think we can execute based on the bids. That caused us to take about 23 million in CLPs in the quarter. So the number that I think is 68 of CLPs in US CRE in the third quarter includes the 23 million mark to market, if you like, that is there.

我認為大約是 10 億美元，我們收到的報價以歐元計算略少一些。因此，在這些事情中，如果您願意，您可以完成投標和投標包。因此，我們已標記出價水準或我們認為可以根據出價執行的位置。這導致我們在本季度獲得了約 2300 萬 CLP。因此，我認為第三季美國 CRE 的 68 個 CLP 包括 2300 萬個市場標價，如果你願意的話，那就是那裡。

All things equal, we would intend to execute and close that transaction in the fourth quarter. I don't see at the moment a strong kind of need or interest in pursuing additional sales, but I couldn't rule it out. We'll see over time. This has been, I think, mostly predicated on testing the market and also the capital relief that we get from unloading the 1 billion of net loans outstanding.

在所有條件相同的情況下，我們打算在第四季度執行並完成該交易。目前我不認為有強烈的需求或興趣去追求額外的銷售，但我不能排除這種可能性。我們會隨著時間的推移看到的。我認為，這主要是為了測試市場以及我們透過卸載 10 億未償還淨貸款而獲得的資本減免。

Incidentally, one thing I mentioned on yesterday's call that you didn't ask, but was of that amount, about 1/3 -- a little bit more than 1/3 of the total portfolio was Stage 3. So the market is of a mix of the portfolio.

順便說一句，我在昨天的電話會議上提到的一件事你沒有問，但數量大約是 1/3——略高於總投資組合的 1/3 是第三階段。

So yes, the AT1 question. And it's obviously a topic, as you might say, is the investors are strictly focusing on. But I think your market observation is obviously just -- I can't really comment on the market per se. But I think just from the coupon and the reset level for the existing bonds callable in April, then that sort of the pricing approach kind of reflects these different coupons essentially, which are out there. So I think that's currently reasonable.

是的，AT1 問題。正如你可能會說的，這顯然是投資者密切關注的話題。但我認為你的市場觀察顯然只是——我無法對市場本身做出真正的評論。但我認為，僅從息票和 4 月可贖回的現有債券的重置水平來看，這種定價方法本質上反映了這些不同的息票，這些息票就在那裡。所以我認為目前這是合理的。

In terms of liability management, look, it's a useful tool. We have obviously seen our peers do that and it sort of reduced carry costs. That's something that we consider that we have done it in the past. I wouldn't rule it out, but at the same time, there's some things we're still working through in terms of our own planning process at the moment. So it's just unfortunately a little bit too early for us to comment on our AT1 strategy right now.

就責任管理而言，它是一個有用的工具。我們顯然已經看到我們的同行這樣做了，這在某種程度上降低了持有成本。我們認為我們過去已經做到了這一點。我不排除這種可能性，但同時，我們目前仍在自己的規劃過程中解決一些問題。不幸的是，我們現在評論我們的 AT1 策略還為時過早。

The next question comes from [Ibrahim Radi] from Lazard.

下一個問題來自Lazard 的[Ibrahim Radi]。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. I'm sorry for coming back on the AT1 calls. My question again is on the economics of that call. How do you balance between economics on a transaction-by-transaction basis versus funding costs on the whole cap stack?

好的。我很抱歉再次撥打 AT1 電話。我的問題再次是關於該電話會議的經濟意義。您如何在逐筆交易的經濟性與整個上限的融資成本之間取得平衡？

And number two, regarding these economics, how much does investor expectations weigh? Because as investors, our expectation is that the three AT1 should be called on the first call date.

第二，關於這些經濟因素，投資人的預期有多大影響？因為身為投資者，我們的預期是三個AT1應該在第一個贖回日被贖回。

Yes. So look, I think the investor expectation, I think, is very clear. That's something I hear on a very regular basis. And so I get cognizant of market expectations and behavior of peers as well. For us, we think about the finish phase on a deal-by-deal basis in terms of the economics, in terms of what makes that sets for us.

是的。因此，我認為投資者的期望非常明確。這是我常聽到的事情。因此，我也了解市場預期和同業的行為。對我們來說，我們會根據每筆交易的經濟角度以及為我們設定的因素來考慮最終階段。

We're, of course, well aware of aid that sensitivity around that. If not to call as we have done it in a prior life. And so when we got the visual expectation about what that would mean for the overall stack. But we have to think about all our stakeholders and that includes both (inaudible) equity investments as well as other parties. So yes, so in general, appreciate, again, sort of a response which doesn't really give too much guidance, but at the same time, as I've been saying on the last few calls we've had on this topic, we're still refining that AT1 strategy, and it's just not appropriate to go into too much detail.

當然，我們很清楚援助對此的敏感度。如果不像我們前世那樣打電話。因此，當我們得到關於這對整個堆疊意味著什麼的視覺預期時。但我們必須考慮所有利害關係人，其中包括（聽不清楚）股權投資以及其他各方。所以，是的，所以總的來說，再次感謝這種回應，這種回應並沒有真正提供太多指導，但同時，正如我在最近幾次關於這個話題的電話中所說的那樣，我們仍在完善AT1 策略，不宜討論太多細節。

Louise Miles, Morgan Stanley.

路易絲‧邁爾斯，摩根士丹利。

Just two quick questions from me. You'd be pleased to know neither of them are on the AT1. I just want to ask about the Tier 2 actually and whether you're kind of thinking about optimizing your capital stack a little bit more because I noticed that you got a little bit of room on the Tier 2 bucket. So good to understand your thoughts on that.

我只想問兩個簡單的問題。您會很高興知道他們都不在 AT1 上。我實際上只是想問一下第 2 層的情況，以及您是否正在考慮進一步優化您的資本堆棧，因為我注意到您在第 2 層的存儲桶上有一點空間。很高興了解您對此的想法。

And then just finally, what about M&A? I mean, is there anything that you're thinking about in terms of areas of the business where you want to bolster operations? Just give us a little bit of a reminder on that, please, that would be great.

最後，併購又如何呢？我的意思是，在您想要加強營運的業務領域中，您有什麼考慮嗎？請給我們一點提醒，那就太好了。

Sure. So I think of the capital stack. Look, I think we're feeling pretty good about the overall shape of things. Obviously, we kind of think about the AT1 bucket and the Tier 2 bucket together. I think both have effective uses.

當然。所以我想到了資本堆疊。聽著，我認為我們對事物的整體狀況感覺很好。顯然，我們將 AT1 儲存桶和 Tier 2 儲存桶放在一起考慮。我認為兩者都有有效的用途。

I think on the AT1 side was just kind of that we sort just demand for leverage, which kind of makes a bit more -- it will have a sort of slight heavier weighting towards AT1. But overall, we kind of -- we're pretty happy with the shape of the stack for our purposes and again, from a loss-absorbing capital perspective, and how we think about overall. So it's very -- yes, I think we'd like to put out in terms of bucketing but when we think about the AT1 and (inaudible) buckets in total, they kind of the needs of the business that we have that we have as appropriate for (inaudible)

我認為在 AT1 方面，我們只是對槓桿的需求進行排序，這會產生更多的影響——AT1 的權重會稍微重一些。但總的來說，我們對符合我們目的的堆疊形狀非常滿意，從吸收損失的資本角度來看，以及我們對整體的看法。所以這是非常 - 是的，我認為我們想在分桶方面提出，但是當我們考慮 AT1 和（聽不清楚）桶的總數時，它們是我們所擁有的業務的需求適合（聽不清楚）

And then on M&A, in terms of larger combinations, we get asked this question a lot because of events over the course of the quarter. And we've been very clear about just being 100% focused on executing our strategy. And so hopefully, those messages have been received. On what you call smaller bolt-on type transactions, we've always -- we never ruled that out. But in fairness, we've been pretty focused as -- beyond the larger sort of mergers on our own strategy.

然後在併購方面，就更大的合併而言，由於本季發生的事件，我們經常被問到這個問題。我們非常清楚，我們將 100% 專注於執行我們的策略。希望這些訊息已被收到。對於你所說的較小的附加型交易，我們一直——我們從未排除過這種可能性。但公平地說，我們一直非常專注於——超越我們自己策略的大規模合併。

We've looked from time to time. And as you've seen, the Numis transaction was the first expansionary transaction in many years. As I say, I won't rule out that other opportunity like that come up in time, but it is not the focus of this management team given how much we still need to deliver looking into 2025.

我們時不時地看過。正如您所看到的，Numis 交易是多年來第一筆擴張性的交易。正如我所說，我不會排除其他及時出現的類似機會，但考慮到 2025 年我們仍然需要交付大量成果，這不是該管理團隊的重點。

We have a follow-up question from Lee Street from Citigroup.

我們有來自花旗集團 Lee Street 的後續問題。

Just a quick technical one. On the EUR789 million benefit, 20 basis points under ASCO 468, how long do you keep that benefit for please (inaudible) how long it's been the red cap.

只是一個快速的技術問題。關於 7.89 億歐元的福利，根據 ASCO 468 規定有 20 個基點，請問您將該福利保留多久（聽不清楚）紅色上限已經持續了多久。

So the -- it's a transitory rule. So it reverses in January 2026.

所以這是一個臨時規則。因此，情況在 2026 年 1 月發生逆轉。

But remember, Lee, how -- whatever amount of unrealized loss is still present on January 1, 2026, is it gets reversed into the ratio, right? So that will change based on interest rates and also kind of portfolio runoff and what have you. So it's not a static number.

但請記住，Lee，無論 2026 年 1 月 1 日仍然存在多少未實現損失，它都會轉回比率，對吧？因此，這將根據利率和投資組合徑流以及您擁有的情況而變化。所以它不是一個靜態數字。

Sorry, Lee, it might be day out. So it might be first of Jan '26, might be the the end of deck '25.

對不起，李，今天可能休息了。所以它可能是 26 年 1 月的第一天，也可能是 25 年甲板的結尾。

So ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. Back over to Mr. Teuchner for any closing remarks.

女士們先生們，這是最後一個問題。返回 Teuchner 先生發表結束語。

Thank you, Sandra. And just to finish up. Thank you all for joining us today. You know where the IR team is if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you soon again. Goodbye.

謝謝你，桑德拉。只是為了完成。感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您有任何其他問題，您知道 IR 團隊在哪裡，我們期待很快再次與您交談。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for joining choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，會議現在結束了。感謝您選擇 Chorus Call，也感謝您參加本次會議。現在您可以斷開線路。再見。