Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Deutsche Bank Q2 2024 analyst conference call and live webcast.

女士們、先生們，歡迎來到德意志銀行 2024 年第二季分析師電話會議和網路直播。

I'm Morita, Chorus Call operator.

我是合唱團接線生森田。

I would like to remind you that all participants will be in a listen-only mode and the conference is being.

我想提醒您，所有與會者都將處於僅聽模式，並且會議正在進行中。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Ioana Patriniche, Head of Investor Relations.

現在，我很高興將工作交給投資人關係主管 Ioana Patriniche。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2024 results call.

感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第二季業績電話會議。

As usual, our Chief Executive Officer, Christian Sewing, will speak first, followed by our Chief Financial Officer, James von Moltke.

像往常一樣，我們的執行長 Christian Sewing 將首先發言，然後是我們的財務長 James von Moltke。

The presentation as always, is available to download in the Investor Relations section of our website, db.com.

與往常一樣，該簡報可在我們網站 db.com 的投資者關係部分下載。

Before we get started, let me just remind you that the presentation contains forward-looking statements which may not develop as it currently expects.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒您，該簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能不會按照目前的預期發展。

We therefore ask you to take notice of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials.

因此，我們要求您注意我們材料末尾的預防性警告。

With that, let me hand over to Christian.

接下來，讓我把時間交給克里斯蒂安。

Thank you, Ioana.

謝謝你，艾歐娜。

And a warm welcome from me.

並受到我的熱烈歡迎。

I'm delighted to be discussing our second quarter and first half results with you today.

我很高興今天與您討論我們第二季和上半年的業績。

After another quarter where we made progress across the businesses on our strategic initiatives, we are on track to hit our financial targets.

經過又一個季度我們的策略舉措在各個業務領域取得了進展，我們有望實現我們的財務目標。

We generated revenues of EUR15.4 billion in the first half on track to EUR30 billion of revenues this year.

上半年我們的營收為 154 億歐元，今年可望達到 300 億歐元。

We have franchise momentum across all businesses, driving commissions and fee income.

我們在所有業務中都擁有特許經營勢頭，推動了佣金和費用收入。

Our capital-light businesses are gaining market share such as our Corporate Bank and Origination & Advisory, which we expect to continue in the second half alongside a more supportive NII environment.

我們的輕資本業務正在獲得市場份額，例如我們的企業銀行和發起與諮詢業務，我們預計下半年將繼續保持這種勢頭，並提供更具支持性的國家資訊基礎設施環境。

We also delivered on our adjusted cost target, our quarterly run rate is at EUR5 billion, in line with our commitment.

我們也實現了調整後的成本目標，季度運作率為 50 億歐元，符合我們的承諾。

Our results were impacted by the litigation provision of EUR1.3 billion related to the acquisition of Postbank, which we had to book this quarter.

我們的業績受到與收購郵政銀行相關的 13 億歐元訴訟準備金的影響，我們必須在本季度記入該筆費用。

As said before, we strongly disagree with the changed and unexpected assessment of the court, and we are working hard to ultimately minimize the impact of this legal matter for our shareholders.

如前所述，我們強烈不同意法院所做的意外的、改變的評估，我們正在努力最終最大程度地減少這一法律事件對我們股東的影響。

But importantly, the bank's operational performance was not impacted.

但重要的是，該銀行的營運表現並未受到影響。

On the contrary, on an underlying basis, we delivered year-on-year improvements on our key target ratios.

相反，從根本上來說，我們的關鍵目標比率同比有所改善。

Excluding the Postbank takeover litigation provision, our post-tax return on tangible equity was 7.8%, up from 6.8% in the first half last year.

不包括郵政銀行收購訴訟準備金，我們的有形資產稅後報酬率為 7.8%，高於去年上半年的 6.8%。

The best first half and second quarter since 2011, which demonstrates the continued momentum in our operating businesses.

上半年和第二季度是自 2011 年以來最好的季度，這表明我們經營業務的持續成長勢頭。

Our cost-to-income ratio also improved from 73% to 69% year on year.

我們的成本收入比也較去年同期從73%提升到69%。

And finally, our CET1 ratio of 13.5% remains solid despite absorbing Postbank and a number of legacy litigation matters, which shows our capital strength and gives us confidence to deliver on our capital distribution commitments.

最後，儘管吸收了郵政銀行和一些遺留訴訟事項，我們 13.5% 的 CET1 比率仍然保持穩定，這顯示了我們的資本實力，並使我們有信心兌現我們的資本分配承諾。

Let me now discuss in more detail some of the drivers of our first half results on slide 2.

現在讓我更詳細地討論幻燈片 2 上半場結果的一些驅動因素。

Pre-provision profit was up 17% year on year to EUR4.7 billion.

撥備前利潤年增 17% 至 47 億歐元。

Excluding the impact of the Postbank takeover litigation provision.

不包括郵政銀行收購訴訟條款的影響。

We also demonstrated positive operating leverage, a core element of our strategy execution.

我們也展示了積極的營運槓桿，這是我們策略執行的核心要素。

We grew revenues in our core businesses by 3% year on year, while Group revenues were up 2% on a reported basis.

我們的核心業務收入年增 3%，而集團收入則按報告計算成長 2%。

Our reported noninterest revenues were up 14% year on year with strong growth in commissions and fee income of 12%, which demonstrates clearly that our strategy to grow our capital-light business is working.

我們報告的非利息收入年增 14%，佣金和費用收入強勁增長 12%，這清楚地表明我們發展輕資本業務的策略正在發揮作用。

And we continue to deliver better than expected NII performance in our banking books, which provides additional comfort to our revenue path for 2024 and in years thereafter.

我們的銀行帳簿中的 NII 表現繼續好於預期，這為我們 2024 年及此後幾年的收入路徑提供了額外的安慰。

We reduced our adjusted cost to EUR10.1 billion year on year.

我們將調整後成本年減至 101 億歐元。

And we continue to deliver savings through our operational efficiency program, which I will discuss in more detail in a moment.

我們繼續透過我們的營運效率計劃來實現節約，我稍後將更詳細地討論該計劃。

Now let's look at the franchise achievements across our businesses on Slide 3.

現在讓我們在投影片 3 上看看我們各個業務的特許經營成就。

In the first half year, the Corporate Bank delivered a 16% increase in incremental deals won with multinational clients compared to the prior year period.

上半年，企業銀行跨國客戶增量交易量較去年同期成長16%。

Our success with our clients were also rewarded with a series of high-profile awards.

我們與客戶的成功也獲得了一系列備受矚目的獎項。

And we have continued to make investments to further strengthen our positioning with our clients.

我們繼續進行投資，以進一步加強我們在客戶中的地位。

We are building out our structuring capabilities and our originate-to-distribute model, taking advantage of our broad investor base.

我們正在利用我們廣泛的投資者基礎來建立我們的結構能力和我們的從起源到分銷的模式。

All of that gives us confidence, we can sustain our momentum.

所有這些都給了我們信心，我們可以保持我們的勢頭。

The Investment Bank made significant advances across the franchise over the first half of the year.

今年上半年，投資銀行在整個特許經營業務上取得了重大進展。

Origination & Advisory increased its global market share to 2.6% in the first half year, a gain of more than 70 basis points over the full year 2023.

上半年，Origination & Advisory 的全球市佔率增至 2.6%，較 2023 年全年增長超過 70 個基點。

And we raised our global ranking from the 11 to the 7.

我們的全球排名從第 11 名提升至第 7 名。

The business continued to support clients through its multifaceted product offering, including M&A, sell-side advice as well as debt issuance linked to the partnership between Grant Thorton and New Mountain Capital.

該業務繼續透過其多方面的產品服務為客戶提供支持，包括併購、賣方建議以及與致同和新山資本之間的合作夥伴關係相關的債務發行。

Fixed income and currency revenues were up 3% year on year, supported by a 7% increase in financing revenues even compared to a strong prior year period.

固定收益和貨幣收入年增 3%，這得益於融資收入成長 7%（即使與去年同期相比）。

The Private Bank also continued to build momentum with EUR19 billion of net inflows in the first six months, supporting growth in assets under management of EUR34 billion.

私人銀行也持續維持成長勢頭，前六個月淨流入190億歐元，支持管理資產成長340億歐元。

We are also seeing recognition for our transformation and digitalization efforts in our retail personal banking franchise with 13% more logins in Postbank mobile app since end of 2023.

我們的零售個人銀行業務轉型和數位化努力也得到了認可，自 2023 年底以來，郵政銀行行動應用程式的登入次數增加了 13%。

We are also improving services for our ultra-high net worth clients and for example, have established a dedicated team in Germany for ultra-high net worth clients.

我們也正在改善超高淨值客戶的服務，例如在德國為超高淨值客戶建立了專門的團隊。

We are leveraging our enhanced technology and product capabilities to expand into FX products, strategic asset allocation or Lombard lending to ultra-high-net-worth clients in Europe.

我們正在利用增強的技術和產品能力，向歐洲超高淨值客戶拓展外匯產品、戰略資產配置或倫巴第貸款。

And we have further developed our key client relationships to boost asset gathering.

我們也進一步發展了主要客戶關係，以促進資產聚集。

In the first half year, Asset Management grew -- assets under management by EUR37 billion to EUR933 billion.

上半年，資產管理業務成長－管理資產增加 370 億歐元，達到 9,330 億歐元。

This was boosted by continued strong inflows into passive, in line with our strategy, which saw net inflows of EUR18 billion in the first six months and is expected to support future revenue generation.

被動資金持續強勁流入推動了這一成長，符合我們的策略，前六個月淨流入達 180 億歐元，預計將支持未來的創收。

Now let me turn to our progress against our strategic objectives on slide 4.

現在讓我談談投影片 4 上我們的策略目標的進展。

We continued to make progress on all three pillars of our Global Hausbank strategy.

我們繼續在全球 Hausbank 策略的三大支柱上取得進展。

Starting with revenue growth, we delivered a compound annual growth rate of 5.7% since 2021.

從營收成長開始，自 2021 年以來我們實現了 5.7% 的複合年增長率。

This underscores the benefit of a well-diversified and complementary business mix.

這凸顯了多元化和互補性業務組合的好處。

Stable NII in our banking book segments was supported by strong non-interest revenues following our investments in our growth initiatives.

我們的銀行帳戶部門穩定的NII得到了我們對成長計畫的投資後強勁的非利息收入的支持。

Looking at the drivers behind commissions and fee income strength in the first six months, we saw growth mainly in our capital-light businesses.

看看前六個月佣金和費用收入強勁背後的驅動因素，我們看到成長主要來自輕資本業務。

We saw particular strong momentum in Origination & Advisory as the market recovered and our franchise is strengthening and gaining market share, a trend we expect to continue.

隨著市場復甦，我們的特許經營權正在加強並獲得市場份額，我們看到了起源和諮詢領域特別強勁的勢頭，我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去。

Our initiatives in the Corporate Bank also paying off.

我們在企業銀行方面的措施也取得了成效。

Commissions and fee income grew by 6% with business growth across all regions, which is notably visible in trade finance and lending.

隨著所有地區業務的成長，佣金和費用收入增加了 6%，這在貿易融資和貸款方面尤其明顯。

We gained market share in our documentary trade business and our structuring capabilities are expanding, which includes increasing contribution from larger transition financing deals.

我們在跟單貿易業務中獲得了市場份額，我們的結構能力正在擴大，其中包括更大的轉型融資交易的貢獻不斷增加。

And in Wealth Management and Private Banking, we grew non-interest revenues from investment products and lending by 11%.

在財富管理和私人銀行業務中，我們來自投資產品和貸款的非利息收入增加了 11%。

We will continue to build on these developments and with business volumes growing, we are confident that our revenue trajectory will remain strong in the second half of the year.

我們將繼續在這些發展的基礎上繼續發展，隨著業務量的成長，我們相信我們的營收軌跡將在今年下半年保持強勁。

First, the impact from the expected NII normalization will be lower than initially anticipated with full year NII in our banking book segment broadly stable to the prior year level.

首先，預期NII正常化的影響將低於最初預期，銀行帳戶業務全年NII基本上穩定於上年水準。

And we will see continued commissions and fee income growth, mainly in Origination & Advisory, Corporate Bank and Asset Management.

我們將看到佣金和費用收入持續成長，主要是在發起和諮詢、企業銀行和資產管理領域。

This puts revenues of EUR30 billion clearly in sight.

這使得 300 億歐元的收入清晰可見。

Additionally, we are highly focused on targeted resource allocation and on driving balance sheet velocity, we continue to deliver on our EUR2.5 billion operational efficiency program, having completed measures, which delivered our expected gross savings of EUR1.5 billion, 60% of our target with around EUR1.2 billion in savings already realized.

此外，我們高度關注有針對性的資源分配和推動資產負債表速度，我們繼續實施 25 億歐元的營運效率計劃，並完成了措施，實現了我們預期的 15 億歐元總節省，即 60%我們已經實現了節省約12 億歐元的目標。

As part of this program, we have made workforce reductions of 2,700, including 700 FTEs during the second quarter alone, reaching nearly 80% of the planned total through end 2024.

作為該計劃的一部分，我們僅在第二季度就裁減了 2,700 名員工，其中包括 700 名 FTE，到 2024 年底達到計劃總數的近 80%。

In addition, we have reduced contract external staff by approximately 1,100 in 2024 to date.

此外，截至 2024 年，我們已減少約 1,100 名外部合約員工。

We have clear sight of the remaining savings yet to come from our operational efficiency program, which will offset inflation in our investments and business growth.

我們清楚地看到我們的營運效率計劃尚未實現剩餘的節省，這將抵消我們投資和業務成長的通貨膨脹。

Our optimization initiatives in Germany are expected to generate savings of around EUR500 million.

我們在德國的優化舉措預計將節省約 5 億歐元。

Investments to reduce the complexity of our organization by improving technology and optimizing the workforce across infrastructure will deliver a further EUR550 million.

透過改善技術和優化整個基礎設施的勞動力來降低我們組織的複雜性的投資將進一步帶來 5.5 億歐元。

And automation of processes alongside better alignment of our front-to-back setup, including the recent organizational changes will deliver another EUR250 million.

流程自動化以及我們前後設定的更好協調（包括最近的組織變革）將另外帶來 2.5 億歐元的收入。

This gives us firm confidence that we are on track to deliver on our commitment of a quarterly run rate of adjusted cost of around EUR5 billion in 2024, and that we will further reduce this run rate closer to EUR4.9 billion by the end of the year to meet our noninterest expense objectives of around EUR20 billion.

這讓我們堅信，我們預計將兌現 2024 年調整後成本季度運行率約為 50 億歐元的承諾，並且我們將在 2024 年年底前進一步將該運行率降低至接近 49 億歐元。歐元的非利息支出目標。

Finally, on capital efficiency, we achieved a beneficial equal to a EUR4 billion RWA reduction in the second quarter through data and process improvements.

最後，在資本效率方面，我們透過數據和流程改進，在第二季實現了相當於 40 億歐元 RWA 減少的效益。

As a result, cumulative RWA reductions from capital efficiency measures reached already EUR19 billion.

結果，資本效率措施帶來的 RWA 累積減少量已達 190 億歐元。

We have a line of sight on further reductions coming in the second half, and we are working towards meeting or exceeding our EUR25 billion to EUR30 billion target.

我們預計下半年將進一步削減開支，並且正在努力實現或超過 250 億歐元至 300 億歐元的目標。

Let me conclude with a few words on our strategy on Slide 5.

讓我用幾句話來介紹投影片 5 中我們的策略作為結束語。

Our first half results represent another milestone in the progress with our Global Hausbank strategy and set a path to achieving our 2025 target of greater than 10% return on tangible equity.

我們上半年的業績代表了我們的 Global Hausbank 策略進展的另一個里程碑，並為實現 2025 年有形股本回報率超過 10% 的目標奠定了道路。

First, we saw strong momentum across all businesses in a more mixed operating environment than we had expected.

首先，我們在比我們預期更加複雜的營運環境中看到了所有業務的強勁勢頭。

With a better-than-expected NII trajectory, coupled with our complementary and growing global franchise, we are confident that our strong revenue momentum will deliver revenues of EUR30 billion this year.

憑藉好於預期的 NII 軌跡，加上我們互補且不斷增長的全球特許經營權，我們有信心今年強勁的收入勢頭將實現 300 億歐元的收入。

The investments we have made in our business give us confidence that this run rate will continue as around 75% of revenues come from more predictable base businesses.

我們對業務的投資讓我們相信這種運作率將持續下去，因為大約 75% 的收入來自更可預測的基礎業務。

And we are, the go-to European bank for our clients, and we'll continue to build on it by offering clients, full service product and solutions.

我們是客戶首選的歐洲銀行，我們將繼續在此基礎上為客戶提供全方位服務產品和解決方案。

This builds our confidence that we can achieve our 2025 target of EUR32 billion.

這增強了我們實現 2025 年 320 億歐元目標的信心。

Second, we are delivering operational efficiencies, which maintain our EUR5 billion run rate in 2024 and will translate into further cost savings, achieving EUR20 billion of noninterest expenses in 2025.

其次，我們正在提高營運效率，從而在 2024 年維持 50 億歐元的運作率，並將轉化為進一步的成本節約，在 2025 年實現 200 億歐元的非利息支出。

Simply put, our revenue growth, combined with our cost reductions will ensure positive operating leverage.

簡而言之，我們的收入成長加上成本降低將確保積極的營運槓桿。

Third, we have put material legacy items behind us.

第三，我們已經把物質遺產拋在腦後。

And although this results in higher litigation charges this year, progress we are making should position us to deliver without major surprises in 2025.

儘管這會導致今年的訴訟費用增加，但我們所取得的進展應該能讓我們在 2025 年實現目標，不會有重大意外。

Fourth, we will see normalization and credit costs next year, closer to the underlying run rate we have this year after overlays and hedging, which will further bolster higher net income.

第四，明年我們將看到正常化和信貸成本，更接近今年經過疊加和對沖後的基本運作率，這將進一步支撐更高的淨利潤。

We remain dedicated to creating value for our shareholders.

我們始終致力於為股東創造價值。

Our earnings power and the progress we have made with capital optimization give us full confidence that we can maintain our trajectory to increase distributions beyond our original goal of EUR8 billion in respect of the financial years 2021 to 2025.

我們的獲利能力和在資本優化方面取得的進展讓我們充滿信心，我們能夠保持我們的軌道，在 2021 至 2025 財年增加分配，超出我們最初的 80 億歐元目標。

We completed the share repurchase program launched in March, bringing cumulative shareholder distributions through dividends and share repurchases to EUR3.3 billion since 2022.

我們完成了 3 月啟動的股票回購計劃，自 2022 年以來透過股利和股票回購累計股東分配達到 33 億歐元。

And we will continue to manage capital with the same discipline as over the past several years.

我們將繼續以與過去幾年相同的紀律來管理資本。

To sum up, with our business momentum and all the progress made, we have a clear line of sight on our target for ROTE of greater than 10% for 2025.

總而言之，憑藉我們的業務動能和所取得的所有進展，我們對 2025 年 ROTE 超過 10% 的目標有明確的目標。

With that, let me hand over to James.

接下來，讓我把任務交給詹姆斯。

Thank you, Christian.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂安。

Let me start with a few key performance indicators on Slide 7 and place that in the context of our 2025 targets.

讓我從投影片 7 中的一些關鍵績效指標開始，並將其置於我們 2025 年目標的背景下。

Christian mentioned our continued business momentum, which resulted in revenue growth of 5.7% on a compound basis for the last 12 months relative to 2021 within our revenue growth target range.

Christian 提到我們持續的業務勢頭，導致過去 12 個月的收入相對 2021 年複合增長 5.7%，在我們的收入增長目標範圍內。

Our reported half year cost income ratio was 78% and return on tangible equity was 3.9%, both impacted by the Postbank takeover litigation provision, excluding the for this provision, the ratios were 69% and 7.8%, showing further improvement compared to 2023.

我們報告的半年成本收入率為78%，有形資產回報率為3.9%，均受到郵政銀行收購訴訟條款的影響，排除該條款後，比率分別為69% 和7.8%，與2023 年相比進一步改善。

Our capital position remained solid in the second quarter with a CET-1 ratio at 13.5% despite absorbing the aforementioned litigation provision.

儘管吸收了上述訴訟準備金，但我們第二季的資本狀況依然穩固，CET-1 比率為 13.5%。

Our liquidity metrics also remained strong.

我們的流動性指標也保持強勁。

The liquidity coverage ratio was 136% above our target of around 130%, and the net stable funding ratio was 122%.

流動性覆蓋率比我們130%左右的目標高出136%，淨穩定資金比率為122%。

In short, our performance in the period reaffirms our resilience and our confidence in reaching our 2025 targets.

簡而言之，我們在這段期間的表現再次證明了我們的韌性和實現 2025 年目標的信心。

With that, let me turn to the second quarter highlights on Slide 8.

接下來，讓我轉向幻燈片 8 上的第二季亮點。

Group revenues were EUR7.6 billion, up 2% on the second quarter of 2023.

集團營收為 76 億歐元，較 2023 年第二季成長 2%。

Non-interest expenses were EUR6.7 billion, up 20% year on year, driven by the increased litigation charges in the quarter.

由於本季訴訟費用增加，非利息支出為 67 億歐元，較去年同期成長 20%。

Nonoperating costs, including litigation charges of EUR1.55 billion.

非營運成本，包括 15.5 億歐元的訴訟費用。

Beyond the Postbank takeover litigation provision of EUR1.3 billion, there were additional charges of approximately EUR220 million related to a series of legacy items we resolved in the quarter.

除了 13 億歐元的郵政銀行收購訴訟準備金之外，我們在本季解決的一系列遺留項目還產生了約 2.2 億歐元的額外費用。

We also booked EUR106 million of restructuring and severance charges in line with our full year guidance.

我們也根據全年指引記入了 1.06 億歐元的重組和遣散費。

Adjusted costs increased 2% year on year due to higher compensation and benefits.

由於薪資和福利增加，調整後成本年增 2%。

Provision for credit losses was EUR476 million or 40 basis points of average loans, and I will discuss both adjusted costs and provisions in more detail shortly.

信貸損失準備金為 4.76 億歐元，相當於平均貸款的 40 個基點，我很快就會更詳細地討論調整後的成本和準備金。

We generated a profit before tax of EUR411 million and a net profit of EUR52 million.

我們的稅前利潤為 4.11 億歐元，淨利潤為 5,200 萬歐元。

Our tax rate in the quarter of 87% was impacted by the aforementioned litigation charges, which were largely non-deductible.

我們本季 87% 的稅率受到上述訴訟費用的影響，這些費用大部分是不可扣除的。

Excluding these litigation effects, the expected tax rate for the full year continues to be around 30%.

剔除這些訴訟影響，預計全年稅率持續在30%左右。

In the second quarter, diluted earnings per share was negative $0.28 and tangible book value per share was EUR28.65, up 6% year on year.

第二季攤薄每股收益為負0.28美元，每股有形帳面價值28.65歐元，較去年同期成長6%。

Let me now turn to some of the drivers of these results.

現在讓我談談這些結果的一些驅動因素。

Let me start with a review of our net interest income on Slide 9.

讓我先回顧一下幻燈片 9 上的淨利息收入。

NII was essentially flat across all of our key banking book segments at EUR3.4 billion, slightly above prior expectations.

我們所有主要銀行帳戶細分市場的NII基本上持平，為34億歐元，略高於先前的預期。

NII in each of the banking book segments follow the same trends as seen in the prior quarter.

每個銀行帳戶細分市場的NII 都遵循與上一季相同的趨勢。

Our base case is that our quarterly NII run rate will remain broadly stable, and we reiterate that we expect to improve on our earlier guidance for the full year banking book NII.

我們的基本情況是，我們的季度 NII 運行率將保持大致穩定，我們重申，我們預計將改善先前對全年銀行帳戶 NII 的指導。

The Group number, reflecting accounting effects decreased by approximately EUR100 million compared to the previous quarter.

反映會計影響的集團數據與上一季相比減少了約 1 億歐元。

This effect is offset by an increase in noninterest revenues and has no overall revenue impact to the Group.

這種影響被非利息收入的增加所抵消，對集團的整體收入沒有影響。

With that, let's turn to adjusted cost development on Slide 10.

接下來，讓我們轉向投影片 10 上調整後的成本開發。

Adjusted costs were EUR5 billion for the quarter, up 2% year on year.

該季度調整後成本為 50 億歐元，較去年同期成長 2%。

Year-on-year increase was driven by higher compensation and benefits costs, which were up by 6%, reflecting higher performance related compensation, wage growth as expected and increases in internal workforce after our targeted investments in talent throughout 2023, including

同比增長是由於薪酬和福利成本上升 6%，反映出與績效相關的薪酬提高、工資增長符合預期以及我們在 2023 年進行有針對性的人才投資後內部員工人數的增加，包括

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

Let's now turn to provision for credit losses on Slide 11.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 11 上的信用損失撥備。

Provision for credit losses in the second quarter was EUR476 million, equivalent to 40 basis points of average loans.

第二季信貸損失準備金為4.76億歐元，相當於平均貸款的40個基點。

The sequential increase in Stage one and two provisions to EUR35 million was mainly driven by the net effect of overlays and model enhancements, which were partly mitigated by quarter-on-quarter portfolio movements.

第一階段和第二階段準備金連續增加至 3500 萬歐元，主要是由疊加和模型增強的淨效應推動的，但季度投資組合變動在一定程度上緩解了這種影響。

Stage three provisions remained at an elevated level but reduced slightly to EUR441 million.

第三階段準備金維持在較高水平，但略有減少至 4.41 億歐元。

The decrease was mainly driven by the Private Bank, while provisions in the Investment Bank remained stable and were largely related to commercial real estate exposures.

下降主要由私人銀行推動，而投資銀行則撥備保持穩定，主要與商業房地產風險敞口有關。

Provisions in the Corporate Bank increased driven by two larger impairment events.

由於兩起較大的減損事件，公司銀行的撥備增加。

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we are now seeing some stabilization in the broader US CRE sector, though US office remains broadly unchanged.

展望今年下半年，我們現在看到更廣泛的美國商業房地產行業有所穩定，儘管美國辦事處基本上保持不變。

Overall, this should lead to lower provisions compared to the first half, but our office CRE portfolio will continue to be impacted.

總體而言，與上半年相比，這應該會導致撥備減少，但我們的辦公室商業房地產投資組合將繼續受到影響。

We also continue to conservatively manage our loan book with lower growth rates including active management of single-name concentration risks through well-established comprehensive hedging programs.

我們也繼續以較低的成長率保守地管理我們的貸款帳簿，包括透過完善的綜合對沖計劃積極管理單一名稱集中風險。

Reflecting on these items and considering developments in the first half of the year, we revised our full year guidance for provision for credit losses to be slightly above 30 basis points of average loans.

考慮到這些項目並考慮到上半年的發展，我們將全年信貸損失準備金指引修訂為略高於平均貸款的 30 個基點。

Before we move to performance in our businesses, let me turn to capital on Slide 12.

在我們討論業務績效之前，讓我先談談投影片 12 上的資本。

With 13.5%, our second quarter Common Equity Tier one ratio was up slightly compared to the previous quarter.

我們第二季的普通股一級資本比率為 13.5%，較上一季略有上升。

CET-1 capital improved slightly, reflecting lower regulatory capital deduction items and strong net income for the quarter, largely offset by the Postbank takeover litigation provision.

CET-1 資本略有改善，反映出監理資本扣除項目減少和本季淨利強勁，但很大程度上被郵政銀行收購訴訟撥備所抵銷。

Risk-weighted assets increased from business growth, together with higher operational risk RWA, including the impact of the Postbank takeover mitigation provision, mostly offset by reductions from strong delivery of capital efficiency measures.

風險加權資產因業務成長而增加，加上操作風險 RWA 上升，包括郵政銀行收購緩解條款的影響，但大部分被強有力的資本效率措施實施的減少所抵消。

At the end of the second quarter, our leverage ratio was 4.6%, 13 basis points higher compared to the previous quarter.

二季末，我們的槓桿率為4.6%，較上季上升13個基點。

The 12 basis points of the increase were driven by higher Tier one capital due to the EUR1.5 billion additional Tier one issuance in June.

成長 12 個基點是由於 6 月額外發行 15 億歐元一級資本而導致一級資本增加。

With that, let's now turn to performance in our businesses, starting with the Corporate Bank on Slide 14.

現在，讓我們轉向我們業務的績效，從幻燈片 14 上的企業銀行開始。

Corporate Bank revenues in the second quarter were EUR1.9 billion, essentially flat year on year and up sequentially driven by growth in commissions and fee income and resilient deposit revenues as higher business volumes compensated higher client payouts.

第二季企業銀行收入為 19 億歐元，與去年同期相比基本持平，但由於佣金和費用收入增長以及存款收入彈性增長，業務量增加補償了客戶支出增加，因此環比增長。

We have seen good progress on our growth initiatives to offset the normalization of deposit revenues by further accelerating non-interest revenue growth.

我們在透過進一步加速非利息收入成長來抵銷存款收入正常化的成長措施方面取得了良好進展。

Commissions and fee income increased by 5% sequentially and 9% year on year, driven by strong momentum in trade finance and lending across all products, as well as in depositary receipts in our trust and agency services business.

在所有產品的貿易融資和貸款以及信託和代理服務業務的存託憑證強勁勢頭的推動下，佣金和費用收入環比增長 5%，同比增長 9%。

Deposits increased by EUR3 billion in the quarter and are EUR32 billion higher year on year, driven by higher term and site deposits across currencies.

本季存款增加 30 億歐元，較去年同期增加 320 億歐元，原因是各貨幣的定期存款和現場存款增加。

The sequential increase in provision for credit losses was driven by Stage one and two provisions after moderate releases in the prior quarter and higher Stage three provisions, which included two larger events in the European and German corporate segment, which were largely covered by risk mitigating measures.

信貸損失準備金的連續增加是由上一季適度釋放後的第一階段和第二階段準備金以及更高的第三階段準備金推動的，其中包括歐洲和德國企業部門的兩起較大事件，這些事件主要由風險緩解措施所涵蓋。

Noninterest expenses were essentially flat year on year as higher internal service cost allocations and compensation costs were mostly offset by lower litigation costs.

非利息支出比去年同期基本持平，因為較高的內部服務成本分配和賠償成本大部分被較低的訴訟成本所抵銷。

This resulted in a post-tax return on tangible equity of 15% and a cost-income ratio of 62%.

這使得有形資產的稅後報酬率為 15%，成本收入比為 62%。

I'll now turn to the Investment Bank on Slide 15.

我現在將轉向幻燈片 15 上的投資銀行。

Revenues for the second quarter were 10% higher year on year, driven by a strong performance in Origination & Advisory.

在創始和諮詢業務的強勁表現推動下，第二季營收年增 10%。

Revenues and fixed income and currencies were essentially flat year on year, reflecting the base effect of a strong prior year quarter.

營收、固定收益和貨幣年比基本持平，反映了去年同期強勁的基數效應。

Financing, Credit Rating and Emerging Markets' revenues were essentially flat year on year.

融資、信用評等和新興市場的收入比去年同期基本持平。

In credit rating, the non-repeat of strong distress performance in the prior year was offset by strength in the flow business, thanks to our prior period investments.

在信用評等方面，由於我們前期的投資，流量業務的強勁抵消了上一年的強勁困境表現。

The macro businesses were both down year on year.

宏觀業務較去年同期均下滑。

The performance in rates primarily reflected the ongoing uncertainty around Central Bank interest rate policies.

利率表現主要反映了央行利率政策持續的不確定性。

While FX revenues were impacted by reduced volatility.

而外匯收入則受到波動性下降的影響。

This was partially mitigated by strong performance in the spot business, benefiting from investments into technology.

受益於技術投資，現貨業務的強勁表現在一定程度上緩解了這個問題。

Moving to Origination & Advisory, revenues doubled compared to the prior year, gaining market share both year on year and sequentially, while we maintained the number one rank in our home market.

轉向發起和諮詢業務，收入比上一年翻了一番，市場份額同比和環比增長，同時我們在國內市場保持第一的排名。

Debt origination continued to drive performance with an ongoing recovery in the leveraged debt market, while investment grade debt issuance activity remained elevated.

隨著槓桿債務市場的持續復甦，債務發行繼續推動業績，而投資等級債務發行活動仍然較高。

Advisory revenues were strong and materially higher both year on year and quarter on quarter, benefiting from the previously highlighted investments made into the franchise.

受惠於先前重點投資的特許經營權，諮詢收入強勁，年比和季比均大幅成長。

Looking ahead, we are encouraged by our third quarter O&A pipeline, which is materially higher year on year.

展望未來，我們對第三季的 O&A 管道感到鼓舞，該管道同比大幅增加。

Although the market anticipated slowdown in M&A industry volumes in the summer and over the third quarter, may limit the possibility to outperform the very strong second quarter.

儘管市場預計夏季和第三季併購產業數量將放緩，但可能會限制其表現優於強勁第二季的可能性。

Noninterest expenses and adjusted costs were both slightly higher year on year, reflecting the impact of strategic investments, including the Numis acquisition.

非利息支出和調整後成本同比均略有上升，反映了包括 Numis 收購在內的策略性投資的影響。

Provision for credit losses was EUR163 million or 63 basis points of average loans driven by Stage three impairments.

信貸損失準備金為 1.63 億歐元，相當於第三階段減損損失平均貸款的 63 個基點。

Turning to the Private Bank on Slide 16.

轉向幻燈片 16 上的私人銀行。

Pretax profit nearly doubled compared to the second quarter last year.

與去年第二季相比，稅前利潤幾乎翻了一番。

Let me walk you through the drivers.

讓我帶您了解一下驅動程式。

Revenues in the quarter were EUR2.3 billion, this includes higher revenues from investment products and lending, which were more than offset by continued higher funding costs, including the impact of minimum reserves and the group neutral impact of certain hedging costs to the business.

本季營收為23 億歐元，其中包括來自投資產品和貸款的收入增加，但這些收入被持續上漲的融資成本所抵消，其中包括最低準備金的影響以及某些對沖成本對業務的集團中性影響。

Excluding these effects, revenues would have been up by 1% year on year.

排除這些影響，營收將年增 1%。

The sequential revenue development reflects a typical seasonal pattern as some investment activities tend to be concentrated at the beginning of the year.

收入的環比發展反映了典型的季節性模式，因為一些投資活動往往集中在年初。

As Christian mentioned before, the Private Bank saw strong business momentum with net inflows into assets under management of EUR7 billion in the quarter.

正如克里斯蒂安之前提到的，私人銀行業務勢頭強勁，本季管理資產淨流入達 70 億歐元。

Personal Banking revenues were impacted by the aforementioned higher funding and hedging costs for our lending books, partially offset by resilient deposit revenues in Germany.

個人銀行業務收入受到上述貸款帳簿融資和對沖成本較高的影響，部分被德國彈性存款收入所抵銷。

Revenues in wealth management and private banking increased due to higher lending business and investment revenues offset by lower deposit revenues in Germany.

由於德國貸款業務和投資收入的增加被存款收入的減少所抵消，財富管理和私人銀行業務的收入增加。

The Private Bank has continued its transformation with 38 branch closures in the first half of the year, and headcount reductions of more than 1,000 FTEs in the last 12 months.

私人銀行繼續轉型，上半年關閉了 38 家分行，過去 12 個月裁員超過 1,000 名全職員工。

Noninterest expenses declined by 13%, including lower restructuring and severance costs and the non-recurrence of provisions for individual litigation cases.

非利息支出下降了 13%，包括重組和遣散費降低以及個人訴訟案件不再重複撥備。

The improvement in adjusted cost of 3% reflects normalized investment spend and transformation benefits, partially offset by still elevated surface remediation costs.

調整後成本提高了 3%，反映了正常化的投資支出和轉型效益，但部分被仍然較高的地表修復成本所抵消。

We expect these to taper off in the remainder of the year, contributing to a run rate improvement in the second half of the year.

我們預計這些將在今年剩餘時間內逐漸減少，有助於下半年運行率的提高。

The overall quality of our portfolio remained stable.

投資組合整體品質保持穩定。

Provision for credit losses benefited from a gain on sale of a nonperforming loan portfolio, but still include the temporary effects of the operational backlog in personal banking, which are expected to reduce during the second half.

信貸損失準備金受惠於出售不良貸款組合的收益，但仍包括個人銀行業務積壓的暫時影響，預計下半年將減少。

Let me continue with Asset Management on Slide 17.

讓我繼續幻燈片 17 上的資產管理。

My usual reminder, the asset management segment includes certain items that are not part of the DWS stand-alone financials.

我通常提醒您，資產管理部門包括某些不屬於 DWS 獨立財務的專案。

Profit before tax improved by 55% from the prior year period, driven by higher revenues and lower noninterest expenses.

在收入增加和非利息支出減少的推動下，稅前利潤較上年同期增加 55%。

Revenues increased by 7% versus the prior year.

營收較上年增長 7%。

This was primarily from higher management fees of EUR613 million, resulting from higher fees generated by liquid products due to increasing average -- assets under management.

這主要是由於管理費用增加了 6.13 億歐元，這是由於平均管理資產增加導致流動性產品產生的費用增加。

Other revenues were significantly higher, benefiting from lower treasury funding charges and a one-off insurance recovery in the quarter.

其他收入顯著增加，受益於本季財務融資費用的降低和一次性保險回收。

Performance and transaction fees were significantly lower, driven by performance fees and alternative's real estate.

受績效費和另類房地產的推動，績效費和交易費顯著降低。

Noninterest expenses were 4% lower due to lower litigation expenses in the quarter, while adjusted costs were essentially flat compared to the prior year, despite inflationary pressures.

由於本季訴訟費用減少，非利息費用下降了 4%，而儘管存在通膨壓力，調整後的成本與上年相比基本持平。

Passive investments saw a net inflow of EUR9 billion in the quarter due to shifting consumer behavior from active into passive investment strategies.

由於消費者行為從主動投資策略轉向被動投資策略，被動投資本季淨流入 90 億歐元。

Digital channel distribution is supporting strong growth in Passave, resulting in positive momentum and six consecutive quarters of net inflows.

數位通路分銷正在支持 Passave 的強勁成長，帶來積極的勢頭和連續六個季度的淨流入。

Assets under management decreased by EUR8 billion to EUR933 billion in the quarter.

本季管理資產減少 80 億歐元，至 9,330 億歐元。

The decrease was attributable to net outflows despite positive market appreciation and FX effects.

儘管市場升值和匯率影響積極，但淨流出仍導致淨流出。

Net outflows of EUR19 billion were primarily in low margin products in fixed income, cash and advisory services.

190 億歐元的淨流出主要流向固定收益、現金和諮詢服務等低利潤產品。

The cost income ratio for the quarter declined to 68% and return on tangible equity was 18%, both improving from the prior year quarter.

本季成本收入比下降至 68%，有形資產回報率為 18%，均較去年同期改善。

Moving to Corporate and Other on slide 18, Corporate & Other reported a pretax loss of EUR1.5 billion this quarter versus the equivalent pre-tax loss of EUR153 million in the second quarter of 2023, primarily driven by the Postbank takeover litigation provision of EUR1.3 billion.

轉向幻燈片18 上的企業及其他，企業及其他報告本季稅前虧損為15 億歐元，而2023 年第二季的稅前虧損為1.53 億歐元，主要是由郵政銀行收購訴訟準備金1 歐元推動的3億。

Revenues were positive EUR73 million this quarter.

本季營收為 7,300 萬歐元。

This compares to positive EUR85 million in the prior year quarter.

相比之下，去年同期收入為 8,500 萬歐元。

Valuation and timing differences were positive EUR216 million in the quarter, driven by partial reversion of prior period losses and impacts from interest rate moves.

由於前期虧損部分恢復以及利率變動的影響，本季估值和時間差異為正 2.16 億歐元。

This compares to positive EUR252 million in the prior year quarter.

相比之下，去年同期為 2.52 億歐元。

The pretax loss associated with legacy portfolios was EUR144 million, driven primarily by litigation charges and other expenses.

與遺留投資組合相關的稅前損失為 1.44 億歐元，主要由訴訟費用和其他費用造成。

At the end of the second quarter, risk-weighted assets stood at EUR32 billion, including EUR13 billion of operational risk RWA.

截至第二季末，風險加權資產為320億歐元，其中操作風險RWA為130億歐元。

In aggregate, RWAs have reduced by EUR9 billion since the prior year quarter.

自去年同期以來，風險加權資產總計減少了 90 億歐元。

Leverage exposure was EUR36 billion at the end of the second quarter, slightly higher than the prior year quarter.

第二季末槓桿曝險為 360 億歐元，略高於去年同期。

Finally, let me turn to the group outlook on Slide 19, second quarter and first half performance demonstrate the successful execution of our strategy, and we remain confident that our businesses have strong momentum and are positioned for further growth.

最後，讓我轉向幻燈片 19 上的集團展望，第二季度和上半年的業績表明我們策略的成功執行，我們仍然相信我們的業務具有強勁的勢頭並為進一步增長做好了準備。

And so our full year 2024 guidance for revenues and adjusted costs have not changed, respectively, at EUR30 billion and around EUR20 billion.

因此，我們對 2024 年全年營收和調整後成本的指引沒有變化，分別為 300 億歐元和 200 億歐元左右。

Provision for credit losses for the year are now expected to come in slightly above 30 basis points of average loans.

目前預計今年的信貸損失撥備將略高於平均貸款的 30 個基點。

Finally, we have successfully mitigated several headwinds to our capital position, which supports our distribution plan, and this remains a key management priority.

最後，我們成功地減輕了資本狀況的一些不利因素，這支持了我們的分配計劃，這仍然是一個關鍵的管理優先事項。

And as Christian said, our full focus remains on the execution of our strategy and the progress made in 2024 positions us well to achieve our 2025 targets.

正如克里斯蒂安所說，我們的全部重點仍然是策略的執行，2024 年的進展使我們能夠很好地實現 2025 年的目標。

With that, let me hand back to you Ioana, and we look forward to your questions.

接下來，讓我把 Ioana 交給您，我們期待您的提問。

Thank you, James.

謝謝你，詹姆斯。

Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

接線員，我們現在準備好回答問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session.

女士們、先生們，我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs International.

克里斯‧哈勒姆，高盛國際公司。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for the presentation and the remarks.

大家早安，感謝您的介紹和發言。

So the first question is on revenues.

所以第一個問題是關於收入。

I guess on a headline basis, the momentum is positive, but the mix is changing a little bit more on NII, perhaps a little bit less on fees outside of the Investment Bank.

我想總體而言，勢頭是積極的，但國家資訊基礎設施方面的結構變化有點大，投資銀行以外的費用可能會少一些。

So if we look through for the EUR30 billion for this year and EUR32 billion, let's say, for next year, are you confident on those two numbers in particular, how would you see fees progressing both inside and outside of the IB?

因此，如果我們仔細考慮今年的 300 億歐元和明年的 320 億歐元，您對這兩個數字特別有信心嗎？

And then second, could you give us an update on where your discussions have got to with the ECB regarding any additional capital requirements relating to your leveraged finance business and how you see the outlook for your, let's say, franchise over the coming couple of years.

其次，您能否向我們介紹一下您與歐洲央行就與您的槓桿金融業務相關的任何額外資本要求進行討論的最新情況，以及您如何看待未來幾年您的特許經營權的前景。

Thank you, Chris.

謝謝你，克里斯。

That's a Christian.

那是基督徒。

Thank you very much for your questions.

非常感謝您的提問。

Let me start and as usual, James may want to chip in.

讓我開始吧，像往常一樣，詹姆斯可能想幫忙。

Look, on your first question on revenues and on kind of your key question, both numbers for '24 and '25.

看，關於你的第一個問題關於收入和你的關鍵問題，兩個數字都是「24」和「25」。

The answer is a clear yes.

答案是肯定的。

Let me start with 2024.

讓我從 2024 年開始。

You have seen the H1 numbers, to be honest, I'm really happy with that with the EUR15.4 billion because all businesses have actually delivered.

你已經看到了上半年的數字，說實話，我對 154 億歐元感到非常滿意，因為所有企業都實際交付了。

And the nice thing is if I now go over the next quarters and let me start with the predictable or more predictable divisions, i.e., the corporate bank, the private bank, asset management, you can actually see that the momentum and the numbers which we have seen in the first two quarters are very, very good guidance for Q3 and Q4.

令人高興的是，如果我現在回顧接下來的幾個季度，讓我從可預測或更可預測的部門開始，即公司銀行、私人銀行、資產管理，你實際上可以看到我們的勢頭和數字前兩個季度對第三季和第四季的指導非常非常好。

I would even say that for the Private Bank and Asset Management, I even expect a slightly better development in H2 versus H1, given also that what James said in his prepared remarks on NII, but also in particular, because of the inflows and the assets under management behave in a very satisfactory way.

我甚至會說，對於私人銀行和資產管理，我甚至預計下半年的發展會比上半年稍好一些，考慮到詹姆斯在他準備好的關於NII 的講話中所說的話，而且特別是因為資金流入和資產在管理下表現得非常令人滿意。

On the corporate bank, I think a number which is around EUR1.9 billion given all the what I can see from the mandates we win is something which we can also plan for Q3 and Q4 that I would really say those three divisions are really having a good momentum.

在企業銀行方面，我認為，考慮到我從我們贏得的授權中所看到的一切，我認為這個數字約為19 億歐元，我們也可以為第三季度和第四季度做好計劃，我真的想說這三個部門確實有勢頭良好。

Yes, we benefit a bit more from a better NII than we expected at the start of the year.

是的，我們從更好的國家資訊基礎設施中受益，比我們年初的預期要多一些。

But even next to that, the underlying fee business behaving very well.

但即便如此，基礎收費業務的表現也非常好。

On the investment banking side, I absolutely believe that overall -- I think the trajectory which we have seen over the last years in terms of market share wins, in terms of stability of revenues and in terms of also predictability of revenues, if you think about the financing businesses, which we have also show me that the second half will be a very satisfactory one.

在投資銀行方面，我絕對相信，總的來說，我認為我們過去幾年在市場份額方面所看到的軌跡獲勝，在收入的穩定性方面以及收入的可預測性方面，如果你認為關於融資業務，我們也向我展示了下半年將會是非常令人滿意的。

Honestly, July started so far, pretty good in the Investment Bank.

老實說，7月到目前為止，投資銀行的表現還不錯。

And what makes me confident in the O&A business could be that the summer is a little bit slower in terms of M&A business than what we have seen in Q2.

讓我對併購業務充滿信心的可能是，夏季的併購業務比我們在第二季看到的要慢一些。

But overall, the market will further recover.

但總體而言，市場將進一步復甦。

We have gained 70 basis points in market share in the first half year.

上半年我們的市佔率增加了70個基點。

We believe that this will also be the case throughout the year.

我們相信全年都會如此。

And to be honest, the investments which we have done in the Origination and Advisory business are really only starting to pay off.

說實話，我們在發起和諮詢業務方面所做的投資才剛開始獲得回報。

So the new people which we hired last year, they are gaining more and more momentum.

所以我們去年僱用的新員工，他們的勢頭越來越強勁。

So to be honest, I even expect that we get more market share in an overall market, which from a fee pool is increasing over the next 12 to 18 months.

老實說，我甚至期望我們在整個市場中獲得更多的市場份額，而費用池的市場份額將在未來 12 到 18 個月內不斷增加。

So that makes me confident that starting with the EUR15.4 billion revenue number, that EUR30 billion is absolutely inside, and I'm highly confident that we achieve that.

因此，這讓我充滿信心，從 154 億歐元的收入數字開始，300 億歐元絕對是可以實現的，而且我對我們實現這一目標非常有信心。

Now '25.

現在'25。

The first thing I would like to say it's for the first time so to say, Chris, other than '24 and '23, they're both kind of income streams, NII and fee income are both going into an increasing direction.

我想說的第一件事是，克里斯，除了'24和'23之外，它們都是一種收入流，NII和費用收入都在朝著增加的方向發展。

So it's different than in the former years where we always had one of these streams, which was kind of decreasing.

因此，這與前幾年不同，前幾年我們總是有這樣的流，而且流的數量正在減少。

In '25, we have sort of, say, two positive growing engines, that obviously helps us as a start.

在 25 年，我們有兩個積極成長的引擎，這顯然對我們有幫助。

Now if I there go actually through the business, on the Corporate Bank, we think that '25 would be another increase over '24, why?

現在，如果我實際上在企業銀行上進行業務處理，我們認為「25」將比「24」再次增加，為什麼？

Because we can simply see the number of mandates transactions we are doing and the investments which we had in particular in our platform business in our payment businesses are paying off.

因為我們可以簡單地看到我們正在進行的委託交易數量以及我們特別是在支付業務的平台業務上的投資正在獲得回報。

So therefore, we gave you also in the prepared remarks, the wins which we had in Q2, all that and the feedback we have from the client's point into another increase in '25.

因此，我們也在準備好的評論中向您提供了我們在第二季度取得的勝利，所有這些以及我們從客戶的觀點到 25 年再次增長的反饋。

And again, the NII is behaving even better than we thought at the start of this year.

再次，國家資訊基礎設施的表現比我們今年初想像的還要好。

Private Bank, I'm clearly up next year.

私人銀行，我明年顯然會上升。

Why?

為什麼？

We always told you that we have a tailwind in NII in '25 over '24.

我們總是告訴你，我們在 25 年的 NII 方面比 24 年有順風車。

Secondly, we are obviously benefiting from the constant inflows into assets under management.

其次，我們顯然受益於管理資產的持續流入。

And we don't believe that there is any change in the second half of the year.

我們認為下半年不會有任何變動。

So the starting point is even a different one, similar actually in asset management.

所以出發點甚至是不同的，實際上在資產管理方面是相似的。

Also in those areas like Alternatives and Passive, where Stefan has his focus on, we are growing.

此外，在 Stefan 重點關注的另類和被動等領域，我們也不斷成長。

And on the Investment Bank, actually, I do believe we will grow in all three areas.

實際上，在投資銀行方面，我確實相信我們將在所有三個領域中取得成長。

Number one, we have made further investments into our trading business, in particular, regionally in the US.

第一，我們對貿易業務進行了進一步投資，特別是在美國的區域性投資。

We have new people starting now as we speak and we will grow that business -- the trading business over there.

就在我們講話的時候，我們已經有了新人，我們將發展這項業務——那邊的貿易業務。

Secondly, I refer back to the remarks on the O&A business, we expect the fee market share to increase next year further increase over this year.

其次，我回顧一下關於O&A業務的言論，我們預計明年的費用市場份額將比今年進一步增加。

Secondly, market shares will grow with those investments, which we have done also talking about Numis.

其次，市佔率將隨著這些投資而成長，我們在談到 Numis 時也做到了這一點。

And thirdly, the financing business is not only stable but if I look at the income and revenue streams, which we have planned for next year, actually also an increase.

第三，融資業務不僅穩定，而且如果我看看我們明年計畫的收入和收入流，實際上也會增加。

All of that from a very encouraging behavior in 2024 makes me absolutely confident that we can achieve the EUR32 billion next year.

這一切都源自於 2024 年非常令人鼓舞的行為，這讓我對明年實現 320 億歐元的目標充滿信心。

So the second question on the ECB, to be honest -- you know, I have seen that portfolio, the leverage lending portfolio now for the last 15 years.

所以關於歐洲央行的第二個問題，說實話——你知道，我在過去 15 年裡一直看到這個投資組合，槓桿貸款投資組合。

And to be honest, it always behaved very well because I think our risk appetite, the way we have managed our risk has demonstrated that we are in very good control of that business.

說實話，它總是表現得很好，因為我認為我們的風險偏好、我們管理風險的方式表明我們對該業務有很好的控制。

You also know Chris, and this is not a secret that two years ago, we had started the discussions with the ECB.

你也認識克里斯，這不是什麼秘密，兩年前我們就開始與歐洲央行討論。

We got a capital add on at that point time of 20 basis points, which was reduced last year by 5 basis points.

當時我們的資本增加了 20 個基點，去年減少了 5 個基點。

I know that there is a discussion between the industry and the ECB, I take it as a very positive signal that the ECB is now reviewing the comments and our arguments from the industry.

我知道業界和歐洲央行之間正在進行討論，我認為這是一個非常積極的信號，歐洲央行現在正在審查業界的評論和我們的論點。

And therefore, you know, also obviously, with all outside opinions, which we get for our portfolio, I feel very confident with the level of provisions we have with the way we manage it.

因此，你也知道，顯然，根據我們對我們的投資組合所獲得的所有外部意見，我對我們的管理方式的規定水準非常有信心。

It's a key business for us.

這對我們來說是一項關鍵業務。

It's a core business of ours that will not change.

這是我們的核心業務，不會改變。

And I'm sure we will also come to a solution there which shows that we have managed it in a fair way.

我相信我們也會在那裡找到一個解決方案，這表明我們已經以公平的方式管理了它。

I don't know, James, whether you want to add.

我不知道詹姆斯，你是否想補充。

All good.

一切都好。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Nicolas Payen, Kepler Cheuvreux.

尼古拉斯‧佩恩，開普勒‧舍弗勒。

Yes, good morning.

是的，早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I have two, one on distribution and one on litigation.

我有兩份，一份是關於分配的，一份是關於訴訟的。

On distribution, I was wondering if we could have an update on what is your total distribution targets?

關於分銷，我想知道我們是否可以更新您的總分銷目標？

Because you committed to distribute above EUR8 billion of capital, but could we have a bit more clarity by how much you expect to exceed this EUR8 billion mark?

因為您承諾分配超過 80 億歐元的資本，但我們能否更清楚地了解您預計將超出 80 億歐元大關多少？

And also timing wise, what should we expect notably for the share buyback.

從時機來看，我們對股票回購應該特別期待什麼。

Is the top-up completely excluded for H2 and what about the pace in 2025?

下半年是否完全排除儲值？

And regarding litigation, what should we expect regarding the litigation provision H2 because through more globally, you have now reduced quite significantly turnkey or contingent liabilities.

關於訴訟，我們應該對訴訟條款 H2 有何期望，因為透過全球範圍的擴大，您現在已經相當顯著地減少了統包負債或或有負債。

So I was wondering should we expect a lower litigation cost run rate for the future rates -- for the future years?

所以我想知道我們是否應該期望未來幾年的訴訟成本運行率會降低？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And let me start, Nicolas and then James will I think comment on both question, on the distribution because that is really important for me.

首先，尼古拉斯和詹姆斯將就分配問題發表評論，因為這對我來說非常重要。

There is no change in guidance.

指導意見沒有變化。

We will distribute more than EUR8 billion in the timeframe from '21 to '25, nothing has changed.

我們將在 21 年至 25 年期間分配超過 80 億歐元，沒有任何變化。

Obviously, from a timing point of view, as we said end of April with the with the item on the Postbank provision of EUR1.3 billion, which we had to digest.

顯然，從時間的角度來看，正如我們在 4 月底所說的，我們必須消化郵政銀行撥備的 13 億歐元計畫。

We always said that we now need to have two quarters actually where we show operating strengths, where we restore capital.

我們總是說，我們現在實際上需要兩個季度來展示營運優勢，恢復資本。

And to be honest, I'm really happy of what has been done in this bank.

說實話，我對這家銀行所做的事情感到非常高興。

We are at 13.5% capital.

我們的資本為 13.5%。

We have created excess capital also in the last quarter.

我們在上個季度也創造了過剩資本。

We are clearly above, so to say the 13.2%, we have created excess capital, but I want to show to the market another quarter of this operating strength.

我們顯然在上面，也就是說13.2%，我們已經創造了過剩的資本，但我想向市場展示另一個季度的營運實力。

And with the comments I just made on revenues, with costs which are absolutely in control, we are around the EUR5 billion.

根據我剛才對收入的評論，成本完全可控，我們的收入約為 50 億歐元。

We have our clear way to the next year.

明年我們有明確的方向。

I'm absolutely confident that we show another very strong quarter in Q3, which generates capital.

我絕對有信心我們在第三季再次表現強勁，從而產生資本。

And then obviously we are back in the process, and we will go back and enter into discussions.

然後顯然我們又回到了這個過程，我們將回去討論。

That is clear for me.

這對我來說很清楚。

But I always signaled that after the Postbank litigation, which the bank digested, we really powered through this.

但我總是表示，在郵政銀行消化了訴訟之後，我們確實度過了難關。

We want to show too good quarters.

我們想展示太好的季度。

Number one is done, and I'll tell you, number two will come.

第一個已經完成了，我告訴你，第二個將會到來。

Thanks, Christian.

謝謝，克里斯蒂安。

Nicola, thanks for the question.

尼古拉，謝謝你的提問。

Look, I'd just echo Christian's comments.

聽著，我只是回應克里斯蒂安的評論。

We've returned almost EUR1.6 billion already this year through the capital actions that we took in the second quarter.

透過第二季採取的資本行動，我們今年已經返還了近 16 億歐元。

We were -- I think very successful offsetting the impact of the Postbank provision and our step off into the second half of 13.5% on the CET1 ratio is a good starting place.

我認為我們非常成功地抵消了郵政銀行撥備的影響，下半年我們的 CET1 比率達到 13.5%，這是一個很好的起點。

Your question about the trajectory going forward.

你關於未來發展軌跡的問題。

If I refer you to slide 22 of our investor deck, we've tried to be as clear as possible on what we've referred to as baseline expectations.

如果我請您參考我們投資者投影片的第 22 張投影片，我們會盡力盡可能清楚地說明我們所說的基準預期。

And so if you look at that on the dividend, we've paid out this year [EUR883 million] and the $0.675 next year would be about EUR1.3 billion.

因此，如果你看看股息，我們今年已經支付了 [8.83 億歐元]，明年的 0.675 美元將約為 13 億歐元。

The EUR1 dividend that we intend to pay out in '26 in respect of '25 would be another nearly EUR2 billion.

我們打算在 26 年為 25 年支付的 1 歐元股息將是另外近 20 億歐元。

And then if you trace the buyback sort of trajectory forward.

然後如果你追蹤回購的軌跡。

And let's just assume for a second, 50% increase a year, the next two numbers in that series would be about EUR1 billion and EUR1.5 billion.

我們假設第二次每年增長 50%，該系列中接下來的兩個數字將分別約為 10 億歐元和 15 億歐元。

Cumulatively that would add to slightly above EUR9 billion.

累計起來，這一數字將略高於 90 億歐元。

And so that's what we're working to deliver to shareholders.

這就是我們努力為股東提供的服務。

As Christian mentioned, build excess capital in the back half of the year, we want to be positioned to achieve those types of payout.

正如克里斯蒂安所提到的，在下半年建立過剩資本，我們希望能夠實現這些類型的支付。

Now we did make a sort of an editorial change to page 22, really trying to kind of separate a little bit of the share buybacks from the payout ratio discussion.

現在我們確實對第 22 頁進行了某種編輯修改，真正嘗試將股票回購與派息率討論分開。

Because to some extent we look at the payout ratio as a minimum, not a maximum.

因為在某種程度上，我們將支付率視為最低限度，而不是最高限度。

And hence building excess capital into the back half of the year can position us to preserve that buyback trajectory even if the payout ratio goes north of 50%.

因此，即使股利支付率超過 50%，在下半年累積過剩資本也能讓我們維持回購軌跡。

That's the hopefully clarity and on what the baseline expectations are.

這就是希望的明確性以及基線期望是什麼。

And just the last thing to say, last time you saw that slide there was this idea of top-ups.

最後要說的是，上次你看到這張投影片時，就有了儲值的想法。

Obviously, the unexpected provision in '24, at least for now is taken away the idea of a top-up in '24.

顯然，24 年的意外規定，至少目前來說，取消了 24 年充值的想法。

But we haven't given up on top-ups in '25 and '26.

但我們在 25 年和 26 年並沒有放棄儲值。

It depends on sort of all of the ins and outs in the capital plan.

這取決於資本計劃的所有細節。

But I'd just echo Christian's confidence that I think we've been able to show that the Postbank provision did not take us off stride, and we remain committed to the so the profile we show on page 22.

但我只是贊同克里斯蒂安的信心，我認為我們已經能夠證明郵政銀行的規定並沒有讓我們大步前進，我們仍然致力於我們在第 22 頁上顯示的簡介。

If I go to your litigation question, look, obviously there's been a transition between the contingent liability number and the balance sheet provision driven by the Postbank takeover litigation provision, but actually not only that provision, some other items also move between the two sort of the off balance sheet and the on-balance sheet accounts.

如果我談到你的訴訟問題，你看，顯然，或有負債數字和資產負債表準備金之間存在著由郵政銀行收購訴訟條款驅動的過渡，但實際上不僅是該條款，其他一些項目也在兩者之間移動。

As we said last quarter, the profile has changed pretty significantly, if you like, of risks that are still unknown.

正如我們上個季度所說，如果你願意的話，風險狀況已經發生了相當大的變化，但風險仍然未知。

And we are committed to continuing the work over the back half of the year to put ourselves in a position for, I would call it dramatically lower litigation provisions and regulatory enforcement actions going forward.

我們致力於在今年下半年繼續開展工作，以便使我們能夠大幅減少未來的訴訟條款和監管執法行動。

Really we'd like to be in a position at the end of the year to have what I call is as clean a slate as possible going into '25 and sustainably, so because if you like, we'll address the unknown elements of the known items.

事實上，我們希望在今年年底能夠盡可能乾淨地進入 25 年，並​​且可持續地進行，所以如果您願意，我們將解決已知的項目。

And as we look to the future sort of the pipeline of new things coming in that we can see and by the way, the benefits of all the investments we've made in controls should give us much more confidence about the outlook going forward.

當我們展望未來新事物的出現時，我們可以看到，順便說一句，我們在控制方面所做的所有投資的好處應該會讓我們對未來的前景更有信心。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Anke Reingen, RBC.

安克雷因根，加拿大皇家銀行。

Yeah, thank you very much for taking my questions.

是的，非常感謝您回答我的問題。

The first is on the loan loss guidance for 2024.

第一個是關於 2024 年貸款損失指引。

If you can maybe give us a bit more what what gives you confidence of the decline?

如果您能給我們更多信息，是什麼讓您對衰退充滿信心？

So more like 25, 30 basis points in the second half and what you've assumed on commercial real estate (inaudible) number and as you sort of like set in 2025, you expect on loan losses to normalize.

因此，下半年更像是 25、30 個基點，以及您對商業房地產（聽不清楚）數字的假設，就像您在 2025 年設定的那樣，您預計貸款損失將正常化。

Would that be a 25, 30 basis points or that 20 basis points you mentioned in the past.

是25個基點、30個基點還是你過去提到的20個基點？

And then just on CapEx, I just wondered if you can give us some more clarity on the expectation with the benefit from the delay of the FITB, what it could mean for the EUR15 billion you previously guided?

然後就資本支出而言，我只是想知道您是否可以更清楚地說明我們對 FITB 延遲的預期的預期，這對您之前指導的 150 億歐元意味著什麼？

And would you consider this -- and your distribution as an extra benefit?

您會認為這以及您的分配是額外的好處嗎？

And then sorry, just one last question on the dividend and the distributions.

抱歉，最後一個問題是關於股息和分配的。

If you have a payout rate, if the [EUR0.68] dividend per share, would corresponds to more than 60%, am I right from your previous comments to understand that come the focus is the absolute distribution rather than the payout ratio.

如果你有一個派息率，如果每股 [0.68 歐元] 股息相當於 60% 以上，我從你之前的評論中了解到，重點是絕對分配而不是派息率。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you, Anke.

謝謝你，安克。

And I'm happy to take all three.

我很高興接受這三個。

Christian may want to add.

克里斯蒂安可能想補充一下。

But look, the CLP guidance change, I would think of it as more related to what has already happened in the year in the first half than then about our outlook for the second half.

但看，中電指引的變化，我認為它更多地與上半年已經發生的事情相關，而不是與我們對下半年的展望相關。

We've had a number of events really to corporates, defaults and then an overlay that we booked in Q2 that have taken us slightly north of what we'd anticipated when we spoke to you three months ago.

我們確實為企業舉辦了許多活動，違約，然後是我們在第二季度預訂的疊加活動，這些活動使我們的預期略高於三個月前與您交談時的預期。

And while you're always a little bit looking in a crystal ball.

雖然你總是有點在看水晶球。

We've been in a granular way looking through the portfolio, including commercial real estate to have a view on the second half.

我們一直在仔細審視投資組合，包括商業房地產，以了解下半年的情況。

You'll recall that I've talked in the past of a '24 run rate closer to say, EUR350 million per quarter that we felt was sort of present and that in a sense is, let's say, EUR100 million of CRE sitting on top of EUR250 million of ordinary course run rates that is in the portfolio.

您可能還記得，我過去曾談到 24 年運行率接近每季度 3.5 億歐元，我們認為這是目前的情況，從某種意義上說，1 億歐元的 CRE 處於領先地位投資組合中2.5億歐元的普通課程運行費率。

Now let's start with the last point, we still see the same stability in our own underlying portfolios in both the retail and the corporate portfolios.

現在讓我們從最後一點開始，我們在零售和企業投資組合中仍然看到我們自己的基礎投資組合具有相同的穩定性。

So we haven't seen a deterioration.

所以我們沒有看到惡化。

On top of that, we've seen as I mentioned, a handful of defaults and also an overlay that we booked.

最重要的是，正如我所提到的，我們看到了一些預設設定以及我們預訂的覆蓋範圍。

In CRE, I recall that we've seen a stabilization in '24, relative to the deterioration that was taking place last year, that actually persisted in the second quarter.

在 CRE 方面，我記得我們在 24 年看到了穩定，相對於去年的惡化，這種情況實際上在第二季度持續存在。

What is perhaps a little bit worse?

也許更糟的是什麼呢？

Is that the sort of beginnings of a recovery that I might have expected three months ago, that hasn't happened yet.

這是我三個月前所期望的復甦的開始，但現在還沒有發生。

It doesn't change our view, frankly, of the direction of travel and that essentially over time, the new defaults and the valuation adjustments that remain in that portfolio begin to sort of burn out.

坦白說，這並沒有改變我們對發展方向的看法，而且隨著時間的推移，該投資組合中保留的新違約和估值調整開始逐漸消失。

CRE -- if you go back to the fourth quarter results, we'd said to expect about $450 million in '24, consistent with our '23 performance.

CRE－如果你回顧第四季的業績，我們預期 24 年的營收約為 4.5 億美元，與我們 23 年的業績一致。

That is probably worsened ever so slightly, call it EUR50 million, maybe EUR75 million in terms of our expectation, but not dramatically.

根據我們的預期，這種情況可能會稍微惡化，稱之為 5,000 萬歐元，也許是 7,500 萬歐元，但不會急劇惡化。

As I say, the larger part of the change in guidance is what's already happened in the year around a couple of corporate items in the -- corporate defaults in the overlay.

正如我所說，指導變化的很大一部分是今年圍繞覆蓋層中的企業違約的幾個企業項目已經發生的事情。

On FRTB, obviously good news for the industry in Europe because I think it would have put us at a competitive disadvantage if the US, where not to go forward and Europe to go forward, so we think it's a sensible change.

關於 FRTB，這對歐洲產業來說顯然是個好消息，因為我認為如果美國不前進而歐洲前進，這將使我們處於競爭劣勢，所以我們認為這是一個明智的改變。

It essentially cuts in half -- just simple math, we had given you say, EUR15 billion of RWA increase from CRR three as of January first next year.

它基本上減少了一半——只是簡單的數學計算，我們已經給你說過，截至明年 1 月 1 日，RWA 比 CRR 3 增加了 150 億歐元。

I'd now build about EUR7.5 billion into the models and move the other EUR7.5 billion into the first of January 2026.

我現在將在模型中投入約 75 億歐元，並將其餘 75 億歐元移至 2026 年 1 月 1 日。

So that's obviously helpful in our capital path.

所以這顯然對我們的資本路徑有幫助。

Helpful to us in terms of building up this excess capital, I just talked about looking into the '25 distributions.

我剛剛談到了對 '25 分配的研究，這對我們建立過剩資本很有幫助。

And then that feeds nicely into your third question, which is binding.

這很好地回答了你的第三個問題，這個問題具有約束力。

We think of the 50% payout intention as you know, if you like a floor, it's what we would then accrue to during the year based on the interim profit recognition.

如您所知，我們認為 50% 的支付意願是，如果您喜歡下限，那麼我們將根據中期利潤確認在年內累積該金額。

Because of the impact on profitability in '24 coming from the Postbank provision, that payout ratio, I think we'll easily cover our dividend and maybe some amount of repurchase.

由於郵政銀行撥備和派息率對 24 年獲利能力的影響，我認為我們將輕鬆支付股息，也許還會支付一定數量的回購。

But what we want to do is put ourselves in a position of being an excess capital to fund and the rest of the repurchase in '25.

但我們想做的是讓自己處於一個有多餘資本的境地，為 25 年的回購提供資金。

And hence, to your point, we wouldn't view the 50% payout as being binding again.

因此，就您的觀點而言，我們不會認為 50% 的付款再次具有約束力。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Kian Abouhossein, JPMorgan.

基安·阿布侯賽因，摩根大通。

Yeah, thanks for taking my two questions.

是的，謝謝你回答我的兩個問題。

I wanted to come back briefly on cost in your remarks, Christian, you talked about the EUR4.9 billion run rate potentially at the end of the year.

我想在您的演講中簡要回顧一下成本問題，Christian，您談到了年底可能達到 49 億歐元的運行率。

And I just wanted to see how you think about the flexibility that offers next year to get your cost income guidance.

我只是想看看您如何看待明年為獲得成本收入指導而提供的靈活性。

If you can talk maybe around is there flexibility to run below EUR20 billion in that sense, I'm considering you're indicating a lower number for the end of the year, even if it's adjusted versus stated.

如果您能談談在這個意義上是否存在低於 200 億歐元的靈活性，我認為您表示年底的數字較低，即使它是根據規定進行調整的。

And how that thinking is around and confident around the cost income guidance.

以及這種想法如何圍繞成本收入指導充滿信心。

The second question is related to provisions again, If -- I wanted to just dig a little bit deeper after Anke's question, the detailed answer in respect to CRE, clearly, the assumptions are that CRE will stabilize.

第二個問題又與規定有關，如果──我想在安克的問題之後再深入一點，關於CRE的詳細答案，顯然，假設是CRE會穩定下來。

It sounded like that -- in 2025.

聽起來就像是——2025 年。

And I wanted to just get a better understanding what assumptions you're making.

我只是想更好地理解你所做的假設。

If you can talk a little bit about the input assumptions, price, price performance and CRE US, default rates that you are assuming on a macro level in CRE?

您能否談談輸入假設、價格、價格表現和 CRE US，以及您在 CRE 宏觀層面上假設的違約率？

And so we get a better understanding.

這樣我們就得到了更好的理解。

And lastly, if I just may on leverage loans, you kind of answered the question, but I also wanted to see if there's any leverage loan additional provision requirement.

最後，如果我只考慮槓桿貸款，你就回答了這個問題，但我也想看看是否有任何槓桿貸款額外撥備要求。

Does that mean there could be a buyback push back?

這是否意味著回購可能會延後？

Look Kian, let me start with the cost answer.

看基安，讓我從成本答案開始。

First of all, I think most important is that we stick to our target and that we show you that we deliver on that like I think we have demonstrated from Q4 '23 when we started with the EUR5.3 billion of quarterly cost that we come down to EUR5.0 billion, which we have done.

首先，我認為最重要的是我們堅持我們的目標，我們向您展示我們實現了這一目標，就像我認為我們從23 年第4 季開始時所展示的那樣，當時我們的季度成本為53 億歐元。

Now looking ahead and what is in the pipeline of additional cost measures to be executed over the next quarters in terms of achieving the EUR2.5 billion of overall cost cuts.

現在展望未來，為了實現 25 億歐元的整體成本削減，未來幾季將執行哪些額外成本措施。

I'm very confident that we will come to the EUR4.9 billion of quarterly costs at the end of Q4, starting of Q1.

我非常有信心，我們將在第四季末、第一季開始時達到 49 億歐元的季度成本。

So this is for us where we are focusing on.

所以這對我們來說是我們關注的重點。

In this regard, we have obviously put all the cost measures into so-called key deliverables, which we are tracking on a biweekly basis in the Management Board.

在這方面，我們顯然已將所有成本衡量指標​​納入所謂的關鍵交付成果中，我們在管理委員會中每兩週追蹤一次。

And we can actually see that with all the investments we have done, with all the also headcount cuts which we have executed in Q1 and Q2, we are delivering on that in Q3 and Q4.

我們實際上可以看到，透過我們所做的所有投資，以及我們在第一季和第二季執行的所有人員削減，我們將在第三季和第四季實現這一目標。

And therefore, I'm confident that the run rate of EUR4.9 billion, which we need for 2025 will be achieved.

因此，我有信心實現 2025 年所需的 49 億歐元運行率。

To be honest in this regard key and just to give you a little bit of a seal, the hardest quarter to achieve the EUR5 billion was actually Q2, right from the start of the year where -- And why?

老實說，在這方面很關鍵，只是為了給大家一點印象，實現 50 億歐元最困難的季度實際上是第二季度，從今年年初開始——為什麼？

Because all the salary increases actually came into Q2.

因為所有的加薪其實都進入了第二季。

We had a lot of the staff reductions to be done in Q2 where these people were still so to say on our payroll and both we have managed, i.e., you saw the number of reduced workforce, not only internally, but also externally what we managed to do in Q2.

我們在第二季度要進行大量裁員，這些人仍然在我們的工資單上，而且我們已經進行了管理，也就是說，您看到了減少的勞動力數量，不僅是內部的，而且還包括我們管理的外部的第二季要做的事情。

And secondly, we digested the wage and salary increases, i.e., the annual tariff increases which we which we digested.

其次，我們消化了薪資和薪水的成長，也就是我們消化的年度關稅成長。

And now we are working down these key deliverables, as I just said.

正如我剛才所說，現在我們正在研究這些關鍵的可交付成果。

And that gives me all the confidence that we are coming to the run rate of EUR4.9 billion.

這讓我充滿信心，我們的運行速度將達到 49 億歐元。

Now what further flexibility do we have in that?

現在我們在這方面還有什麼進一步的彈性呢？

The EUR4.9 billion is obviously then also correlated to sort of say our revenue aspirations and the revenue target I laid out.

49 億歐元顯然也與我們的收入意願和我所訂定的收入目標有關。

You know, from our previous discussions that there is always certain flexibility also on the cost number, in terms of flexibility when it comes to less volumes when it comes to variable comp, when it comes to technology investments.

你知道，從我們之前的討論來看，成本數字、減少產量、可變補償、技術投資的靈活性方面總是存在一定的靈活性。

And obviously, this is all in our hand and therefore, I don't want to rule out at all that there is further flexibility.

顯然，這一切都掌握在我們手中，因此，我不想排除有進一步的靈活性。

But for me, given there where the momentum of the bank is on the revenue side, I have all eyes focused on the EUR4.9 billion.

但對我來說，考慮到銀行在收入上的勢頭，我所有的目光都集中在 49 億歐元上。

And here I can give you my full confidence that we will achieve that because or the underlying structural cost reductions are actually in time, in plan, in execution.

在這裡，我可以給你們充分的信心，我們將實現這一目標，因為潛在的結構性成本削減實際上是按時、按計劃、按執行的。

Kian, turning to your question on provisions and the impact of CRE, maybe I can draw your attention to Slide 34 and the and the investment in the IR deck.

Kian，關於您關於條款和 CRE 影響的問題，也許我可以提請您注意幻燈片 34 以及 IR 平台的投資。

Now this is where I had guided that the next in the series would be down in Q2.

現在，這就是我指導該系列的下一個將在第二季發布的地方。

And so as always, predictions about the future are a slightly uncertain science but we've sort of traveled more or less at the level we had in Q4 and Q1.

像往常一樣，對未來的預測是一門稍微不確定的科學，但我們或多或少已經達到了第四季和第一季的水平。

So the recovery that I mentioned earlier didn't come as quickly as I had expected.

所以我之前提到的復甦並沒有像我預期的那麼快。

And look, by the way, the [130] in Q2 actually had some impact of the overlay.

順便說一下，第二季的 [130] 實際上對疊加產生了一些影響。

So if you take that out, we were at [123] essentially flat for the last two quarters.

因此，如果你把它去掉，我們在過去兩個季度的[123]基本上持平。

Now what gives us confidence about the direction of travel here?

現在是什麼讓我們對這裡的行進方向充滿信心？

Really two things.

確實是兩件事。

One is that the -- if we look at the portfolio in a granular way.

其一是──如果我們以細粒度的方式審視投資組合。

So loan-by-loan, which loans -- in which loans do we see there a possibility of future defaults?

那麼逐筆貸款，我們認為哪些貸款有未來違約的可能性？

That number is declining.

這個數字正在下降。

And so if you like, the risk content that remains in the portfolio, is declining.

因此，如果你願意的話，投資組合中保留的風險內容正在下降。

And what drove the kind of missed to my expectations this quarter was more that the existing -- the defaulted portfolio, our estimation of lifetime losses increased in the quarter.

導致本季未達到我預期的原因更多的是現有的違約投資組合，我們對本季終身損失的估計增加。

So that also will find a level and stabilize it at some point.

因此，這也會找到一個水平並在某個時刻穩定下來。

So I'd hoped that and expected that we'd probably be closer to 100 in the second quarter.

所以我曾希望並預計我們在第二季可能會接近 100。

Let's see how this develops in the quarters to come.

讓我們看看未來幾季的發展。

But given the way portfolios like this perform, you can -- the downslope can be quite dramatic.

但考慮到這樣的投資組合的表現方式，你可以——下跌可能會相當劇烈。

And then on leverage lending, look, we believe our provisions or the allowance for loan losses is prudent and adequate for the risks we see in the portfolio.

然後在槓桿貸款方面，我們相信我們的準備金或貸款損失準備金對於我們在投資組合中看到的風險是審慎且充足的。

We are always open to and taking on feedback from our internal AQR views, our auditors and also the regulators when they come into to review the portfolios.

我們始終對內部 AQR 觀點、審計師以及監管機構審查投資組合時持開放態度並接受他們的回饋。

And at the end of the day, it is for us to determine on the basis of the accounting rules, what the appropriate provision is.

最終，我們需要根據會計規則來確定適當的準備金是什麼。

We'll continue to monitor and adapt dynamic way, but we think our practices are good and we will continue to engage in a constructive way with the supervisors on that dialogue.

我們將繼續監控和調整動態方式，但我們認為我們的做法很好，我們將繼續以建設性的方式與監管者進行對話。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tom Hallett, KBW.

湯姆哈利特，KBW。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Can you tell us how you see the deposit mix and main trends developing in the second half of the year across the Corporate Bank and the Private Bank and how much some of the recent political uncertainty may be impacting this?

您能否告訴我們您如何看待下半年企業銀行和私人銀行的存款結構和主要趨勢的發展，以及最近的政治不確定性可能對此產生多大影響？

And then secondly, on SRTs, which is obviously becoming quite a popular tool for banks these days.

其次，SRT 顯然已成為當今銀行非常流行的工具。

Could you just give us some color on the potential CET-1 benefit over the next year.

您能為我們介紹一下明年 CET-1 的潛在好處嗎？

And then maybe quantify or help us understand the size of the overall opportunity here, which -- as an outsider, I guess I'm thinking about it in terms of size of the scope of assets that are generally earning below the regulatory cost of capital.

然後也許可以量化或幫助我們理解這裡整體機會的規模，作為一個局外人，我想我是從資產範圍的規模來考慮的，這些資產的收益通常低於監管資本成本。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Tom.

謝謝，湯姆。

Two interesting questions.

兩個有趣的問題。

Look, loan growth has been more sluggish incoming than we'd expected as you've heard on our calls for the past year or so.

看，貸款增長比我們預期的要緩慢，正如您在過去一年左右的電話會議中聽到的那樣。

That said, we did have loan growth in the second quarter.

也就是說，我們第二季的貸款確實有所成長。

And so the kind of first encouraging sign we have $2 billion of loan growth this quarter.

這是第一個令人鼓舞的跡象，本季我們的貸款增加了 20 億美元。

And we think that the kind of indicators of increasing activity are there.

我們認為活動增加的指標是存在的。

And there's certainly demand in some of the more structured lending areas.

一些結構性更強的貸款領域肯定存在需求。

So we think that recovery is starting.

所以我們認為復甦已經開始。

In the retail portfolios in particular, where there's still sort of a relatively slow environment in German mortgages and our portfolio have traded slightly.

特別是在零售投資組合中，德國抵押貸款仍然處於相對緩慢的環境，我們的投資組合交易小幅。

But again, there I think we've found a floor and can grow from here.

但我認為我們已經找到了一個底線，並且可以從這裡開始成長。

On the deposit side, really encouraging sort of performance, especially in corporate bank, but we also see in the private bank, a clear ability to raise deposits at pricing that is attractive.

在存款方面，確實令人鼓舞，尤其是在企業銀行，但我們也看到私人銀行明顯有能力以有吸引力的定價籌集存款。

So you may see a leveling out a little bit of the deposit growth in the back half of the year.

因此，您可能會看到下半年存款成長略有放緩。

But we think the volumes there generally are encouraging in terms of healthy growth, frankly, on both sides of the balance sheet going forward.

但坦白說，我們認為，就未來資產負債表兩側的健康成長而言，總體數量令人鼓舞。

If I look at SRT, look, for us some of our risk transfer programs are 20 years old.

如果我看看 SRT，我們的一些風險轉移計劃已經有 20 年歷史了。

So we've been at this for a while and we have good structured programs, we have a great level of engagement with the investors in our structures that have been with us for a long time.

因此，我們在這方面已經有一段時間了，我們有良好的結構化計劃，我們與長期與我們合作的結構中的投資者有很高的參與度。

And we're sort of constantly on the lookout for portfolios where we think they can be more efficiently held off of the bank's balance sheet than on our balance sheet.

我們一直在尋找投資組合，我們認為這些投資組合可以更有效地遠離銀行的資產負債表，而不是我們的資產負債表。

Therefore, I would say the scope isn't dramatic, but there's still things we look at.

因此，我想說範圍並不大，但我們仍然在關註一些事情。

And you've seen that as part of the, you know, program we've had for capital efficiency of where we were after '25 to '30, as you've seen in the past year or so, securitization has been part of that, growing our SRT programs or the funded credit-linked note programs we have is also being part of that.

你已經看到，作為我們在 25 世紀到 30 年後的資本效率計劃的一部分，正如你在過去一年左右所看到的那樣，證券化已經成為我們的資本效率計劃的一部分。計劃或資助的信用掛鉤票據計劃也是其中的一部分。

So I think a marginal contribution from here and we're always looking, but we have a reasonably sizable benefit as things stand from those types of (inaudible) types of structures.

因此，我認為這裡的貢獻很小，我們一直在尋找，但從這些類型的（聽不清楚）結構類型來看，我們有相當大的好處。

One last comment to make at the risk of going long.

最後要說的一句話是冒著做多風險的。

As we get into the CRR III world and the impact of the output floor.

當我們進入 CRR III 世界以及輸出層的影響。

Obviously, there's a whole new sort of Vista, of assets that we may look to take off our balance sheet because we'll be solving for another variable.

顯然，有一種全新的 Vista 資產，我們可能會考慮將其從資產負債表中剔除，因為我們將解決另一個變數。

So in the past, it's been managing concentration risk and to a lesser extent, RWA going forward, it will be those two things plus the impact on the output floor of different asset classes.

因此，在過去，它一直在管理集中風險，在較小程度上，未來的風險加權資產將是這兩件事加上對不同資產類別產出下限的影響。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Giulia Aurora Miotto, Morgan Stanley.

朱莉婭·奧羅拉·米奧托，摩根士丹利。

Yes, hi, good morning.

是的，嗨，早安。

My first question is on the private bank.

我的第一個問題是關於私人銀行的。

And could you please give us a bit more detail -- a bit more color on how quickly the fee line can grow and what initiatives you have underway to really control this and drive this in the next quarters and in '25 in particular.

您能否給我們更多細節 - 更詳細地說明費用線增長的速度以及您正在採取哪些舉措來真正控制這一點並在下個季度，特別是在 25 年推動這一點。

And so that would be my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

And then secondly, you talked about a loan growth dynamics, what about asset margins, how are those evolving in your main products, please?

其次，您談到了貸款成長動態，資產利潤率怎麼樣，您的主要產品的發展如何？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, let me take a let me take the first question, Guilia, on the private bank.

是的，讓我回答第一個問題，吉利亞，關於私人銀行的問題。

Actually, it's -- first of all, a continuous improvement on the fee business, gross in the private bank.

事實上，首先是私人銀行收費業務的持續改善。

Kind of in particular, when I look to the future quarter over quarter.

尤其是當我展望未來的季度情況時。

Why?

為什麼？

Because we have a constant inflow in our assets under management.

因為我們管理的資產不斷流入。

By the way, domestically as well as internationally.

順便說一下，國內和國際都是如此。

And by the way, also -- and this is very nice, not only sort of say in the private bank and wealth management business, but also in the personal banking business in Germany.

順便說一句，這也非常好，不僅在私人銀行和財富管理業務方面，而且在德國的個人銀行業務方面也是如此。

Secondly, I think for the private bank.

其次，我認為對於私人銀行來說。

If we think about the overall profitability, there is a huge focus.

如果我們考慮整體盈利能力，就會發現一個巨大的焦點。

Now on turning around the personal banking business in the private bank in Germany, that obviously, given all the integration work, which we are doing and which we have done in particular last year with the IT transformation, had an unacceptable return on equity so far.

現在，在扭轉德國私人銀行的個人銀行業務方面，顯然，考慮到我們正在做的所有整合工作，特別是去年我們透過 IT 轉型所做的工作，迄今為止的股本回報率令人無法接受。

But if I look actually at the strategy from Claudio, how we will digitalize this business, how we actually will make this business in particular for the investment and fee-related business.

但如果我實際上看看克勞迪奧的策略，我們將如何數位化這項業務，我們實際上將如何開展這項業務，特別是投資和費用相關業務。

A business, which is there for 19 million clients and in particular, for the 50 million Postbank clients, I expect actually a good growth coming from this personal banking.

這項業務為 1,900 萬客戶，特別是 5,000 萬郵政銀行客戶提供服務，我預期個人銀行業務實際上會帶來良好的成長。

And at the same time, we are now realizing the fruits of integrating the IT, i.e., the costs are coming down.

同時，我們現在正在實現IT整合的成果，即成本正在下降。

And here we are talking, like we said in the previous calls about a EUR500 million cost reduction just as a direct cost in the private bank as a result of the integration.

正如我們在之前的電話會議中所說的那樣，我們在這裡談論的是整合帶來的私人銀行直接成本減少了 5 億歐元。

So it's a constant growth across the subdivisions in the private bank.

因此，私人銀行的各個細分部門都在持續成長。

But the real lever is actually bringing the personal bank in Germany with a clear plan to an acceptable return on equity over the next 12 to 18 months, which is then obviously also a huge lever for the overall Group profitability.

但真正的槓桿實際上是讓德國的個人銀行製定明確的計劃，在未來 12 至 18 個月內獲得可接受的股本回報率，這顯然也是集團整體盈利能力的一個巨大槓桿。

So maybe I could add, and this is also a little bit in answer to Chris's question earlier, which was about sort of fee and commission engines outside the Investment Bank.

所以也許我可以補充一點，這也是對克里斯之前問題的一點回答，該問題是關於投資銀行之外的某種費用和佣金引擎。

Obviously, just in the Investment Bank, a big part of the story this year and next year is advisory and underwriting fees where we think the momentum, the wallet growth is there and there's an opportunity that we're executing on to increase our market share.

顯然，就投資銀行而言，今年和明年的一個重要部分是諮詢和承銷費用，我們認為勢頭、錢包成長就在那裡，我們有機會增加我們的市場份額。

But if you go away from the Investment Bank, as Christian just said, you know, the the private bank earns commissions and fee revenues in brokerage and investment management fees and commissions.

但如果你離開投資銀行，正如克里斯蒂安剛才所說，你知道，私人銀行透過經紀和投資管理費用和佣金賺取佣金和費用收入。

Asset management does the same on the investment management side.

資產管理在投資管理方面也是如此。

And you have visibility into those revenue sources from the AUM increases or development over time.

您也可以了解資產管理規模隨著時間的推移而增加或發展的收入來源。

And you can also be helped or hindered by the market levels, but the visibility is there.

市場水平也可能對你有幫助或阻礙，但可見性是存在的。

And then in the corporate bank, you've got fees on loan inception, loan processing, you have payment activity, custody activity, again, sort of an asset driven trust and agency services.

然後在企業銀行，你需要收取貸款啟動、貸款處理的費用，你需要支付活動、託管活動，同樣，這是一種資產驅動的信託和代理服務。

And again, the visibility into those revenue sources is high, including based on the RFP process and the implementation of new business that we win.

同樣，這些收入來源的可見度很高，包括基於 RFP 流程和我們贏得的新業務的實施。

So as I say, the visibility into these revenue sources is strong.

正如我所說，這些收入來源的可見度很強。

And based on our current outlook, we can see some of these lines continuing the types of growth rates this year so far, which has been 12% each quarter and for the half extending into next year.

根據我們目前的展望，我們可以看到其中一些線路將延續今年迄今為止的成長率，每個季度為 12%，下半年將延續到明年。

On the spread side, there too, we've been surprised to the upside this year.

在利差方面，今年我們也對利差的上漲感到驚訝。

Frankly, on both sides of the balance sheet.

坦白說，在資產負債表的兩邊。

So as we've talked about, deposit margins have been better than anticipated as the pass through continues to outperform.

正如我們所討論的，隨著傳導繼續跑贏大盤，存款保證金已經好於預期。

On the loan side, the same has been true.

在貸款方面，情況也是如此。

The spreads in the front book have been better than we anticipated.

前面的價差比我們預期的還要好。

To be fair, a bit mixed on the private bank and corporate bank and investment bank, there's been reasonably healthy spreads and new lending in the front book.

公平地說，私人銀行、企業銀行和投資銀行的情況有點複雜，但前面的利差和新貸款都相當健康。

And those -- that sort of margin expansion has contributed to the better than expected net interest income than we had anticipated.

而那些——這種利潤率擴張導致淨利息收入好於我們的預期。

By the way, the other driver of the NII outperformance is also spreads on our unsecured debt.

順便說一句，NII 表現優異的另一個驅動因素也是我們無擔保債務的利差。

And so all of those engines are helping sustain this year, the net interest income line and contribute to the expected growth next year.

因此，所有這些引擎都有助於維持今年的淨利息收入線，並為明年的預期成長做出貢獻。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mate Nemes, UBS.

內梅斯先生，瑞銀集團。

Yes, good afternoon and thanks for the presentation.

是的，下午好，感謝您的介紹。

I have three questions, please.

我有三個問題，請教。

First of all, on RWA reduction, I think you have achieved now EUR19 billion in total RWA reduction as a result of the optimization program.

首先，關於 RWA 減少，我認為透過優化計劃，您現在已經實現了 RWA 總額減少 190 億歐元。

Could you give us a sense of the timing of the remaining reductions to get to your EUR25 billion targets.

您能為我們介紹一下為實現 250 億歐元目標而進行剩餘削減的時間安排嗎？

Is that largely coming through in the second half of this year or some of that should be in '25?

這大部分會在今年下半年實現，還是其中一些應該在 25 年實現？

And then the second question is on share buybacks.

第二個問題是關於股票回購。

Just referring to your slide 22, and the 50% per annum growth in share buybacks.

僅參考您的投影片 22，以及股票回購每年 50% 的成長。

I think the original expectation certainly by the market was a higher total amount of buyback in 2024 on which the increase into next year would have been obviously quite substantial.

我認為市場最初的預期肯定是 2024 年回購總量更高，明年的增量顯然相當可觀。

My question is, are we looking at a 50% increase versus the EUR675 million for the buyback next year?

我的問題是，與明年的 6.75 億歐元回購相比，我們是否會考慮增加 50%？

Or should we think of a potentially larger increase due to the scrapped second tranche of the buyback in '24.

或者我們是否應該考慮由於 24 年第二批回購被取消而可能出現更大的成長。

And finally, the last question is on the Corporate Bank loss provisions.

最後，最後一個問題是關於企業銀行損失準備金的。

Could you give us any sense of these single cases or single corporate events, are they reflective of any deterioration in the overall asset quality in the broader corporate sector.

您能為我們介紹一下這些單一案例或單一企業事件嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So thank you, Mate, for the questions., Look, first of all, we're very pleased with the progress there and credit to the teams that have been working so hard to drive this optimization.

所以謝謝你，夥計，提出問題。

You know, broadly speaking, as I mentioned in prepared remarks, I would hope that we could achieve another EUR2 billion in Q3.

你知道，從廣義上講，正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，我希望我們能夠在第三季再實現 20 億歐元。

And there I think we've got good line of sight to that, maybe a little bit more.

我認為我們對此有很好的視野，也許還多一點。

And if we achieve the same in Q4, I would be pleased.

如果我們在第四季取得同樣的成績，我會很高興。

So if we got to say EUR4 billion incremental this year, bringing us to EUR23 billion, maybe EUR24 billion, that would be good performance, which, to your point, leaves EUR5 billion or EUR6 billion next year to get to EUR30 billion and potentially there's upside beyond that.

因此，如果我們今年要增加40 億歐元，使我們達到230 億歐元，也許是240 億歐元，那將是良好的表現，就您的觀點而言，明年將增加50 億歐元或60 億歐元，達到300 億歐元，並且可能有除此之外。

And that obviously is helpful in driving the excess capital creation that I talked about earlier.

這顯然有助於推動我之前談到的過剩資本創造。

So assume for modeling purposes, EUR4 billion this year and at least EUR6 billion next year.

因此，出於建模目的，假設今年為 40 億歐元，明年至少為 60 億歐元。

On the buyback, yeah, what was taken out in '24, I think that the consensus number was that the second buyback authorization could be something in the order of EUR400 million to EUR500 million this year, and that was actually a fair assumption.

關於回購，是的，24 年採取的行動，我認為共識數字是今年第二次回購授權可能約為 4 億至 5 億歐元，這實際上是一個合理的假設。

And absent the litigation provision, I think we would have been in a good position to seek that.

如果沒有訴訟條款，我認為我們能夠很好地尋求這一點。

But I want to be clear, the baseline was intended always to be off the -- in this case, the EUR675 million with potential top-ups, depending on the level of excess capital in each year.

但我想澄清的是，基線的目的始終是超出——在本例中，根據每年的過剩資本水平，有可能補充的 6.75 億歐元。

And so I want to reiterate the baseline expectation that something that management's working towards to deliver.

因此，我想重申管理層正在努力實現的基本期望。

And let's see, whether there's room for the top-ups.

讓我們看看是否有儲值的空間。

We certainly haven't given up on the idea that there wouldn't could be top-ups.

我們當然沒有放棄不能儲值的想法。

And those top-ups would take us from the call it [9.2] that's implied by the by the progression to something beyond that.

這些充值將把我們從[9.2] 帶出來，這是由進展到超越它所暗示的。

Again, it underscores why it is that we say we've got confidence and exceeding the EUR8 billion.

這再次強調了為什麼我們說我們有信心並超過 80 億歐元。

On the asset quality in the corporate book, I think James already said that there is no deterioration.

關於公司帳簿的資產質量，我認為詹姆斯已經說過沒有惡化。

To be honest, the two cases James were referring to.

老實說，詹姆斯指的是兩個案例。

It's actually sort of dominated by one case in Europe, but also here, yes, we have to have we had to build a loan-loss provision.

實際上，這主要是歐洲的一個案例，但在這裡，是的，我們必須建立貸款損失準備金。

But I think overall, we should also not forget that the risk management overall has actually worked quite well because we have a substantial coverage actually from a CLO point of view, which again, brings me back to the point that, yes, you see a slightly elevated loan-loss provision number, but the real run rate if we take overlays out and if I also take this into account, the real run rate of loan loss provision is, in my view, actually the normal stock of run rate of the EUR250 million plus a quarterly number, which always can happen.

但我認為總的來說，我們也不應該忘記，整體風險管理實際上運作得很好，因為從CLO 的角度來看，我們實際上擁有大量的覆蓋範圍，這再次讓我回到了這一點，是的，你看到了貸款損失撥備數字略有上升，但如果我們剔除覆蓋因素，實際運行率，如果我也考慮到這一點，在我看來，貸款損失準備金的實際運行率實際上是貸款損失準備金的正常存量。

And you can now say it's EUR75 million to EUR100 million but that brings me also to the confidence because we don't see from a rating point of view, from a watch list point of view, from upgrades versus downgrades, we don't see any material deterioration, also not in the German mid-cap book, brings me to the confidence that actually a number of EUR1.3 billion is a number where I'm absolutely confident that there should be a run rate for Deutsche Bank in terms of loan-loss provisions per year.

現在你可以說這是7500 萬歐元到1 億歐元，但這也給我帶來了信心，因為我們沒有從評級的角度來看，從觀察名單的角度來看，從升級與降級的角度來看，我們沒有看到任何實質性的惡化，也不包括德國中盤股的數據，都讓我相信，實際上 13 億歐元是一個數字，我絕對有信心德意志銀行應該有一個運行率每年的貸款損失準備金。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous.

斯特凡·斯塔爾曼，自治。

Yes, good afternoon.

是的，下午好。

Thank you very much for taking my questions.

非常感謝您回答我的問題。

I have just two left, please.

我只剩下兩個了，拜託。

Starting with the private bank, you mentioned an NPL sale.

從私人銀行開始，您提到了不良貸款出售。

Can you tell us roughly how big this was notional in terms and whether there was actually a P&L -- profit or loss on the back of this sale?

您能否大致告訴我們，這在名義上有多大，以及是否實際上有損益表——這次銷售的利潤或損失？

And the second question relates to the valuation and timing differences in your corporate center, which have been mostly positive in recent quarters?

第二個問題涉及貴公司中心的估值和時間差異，最近幾季大多是正面的？

Can we think of this as a balance, which is still negative, and you are still working yourself out of the spectre neutral or is it actually now a positive overall balance and there's a risk that eventually that normalizes down to neutral with negative effects in coming quarters?

我們是否可以將其視為一種平衡，這仍然是負面的，並且您仍在努力擺脫幽靈中性，或者現在實際上是積極的整體平衡，並且存在最終正常化為中性的風險，並帶來負面影響宿舍？

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks for the question, Stefan.

謝謝你的提問，斯特凡。

So briefly, I don't know the notional of the NPL sale, but in round numbers, think of us as having a CLP benefit of about EUR25 million in the quarter on the sale, which was offset by incremental CLP or continued drag from the operational disruptions of about the same amount.

簡而言之，我不知道不良貸款出售的概念，但從整數來看，我們在本季度的出售中獲得了約 2500 萬歐元的 CLP 收益，這一收益被增量 CLP 或持續拖累所抵消。大約相同數量的營運中斷。

So the call it [150] that you see in the second quarter is a pretty good indication of the run rate going into the second half of the year in the private bank, given we wouldn't necessarily expect -- well the drag from operational items, we do expect to go away and potentially reverse in the second half of the year and the P&L sale -- the NPL sale wouldn't necessarily repeat either.

因此，您在第二季度看到的所謂[150]很好地表明了私人銀行進入下半年的運行率，因為我們不一定會預期 - 運營帶來的拖累項目，我們確實預計會消失，並可能今年下半年逆轉，損益表出售- 不良貸款出售也不一定會重複。

On the valuation timing differences, I'd really call out two elements.

關於估值時間差異，我確實要指出兩個因素。

The first is pull to par in the investment portfolio.

首先是投資組合的拉動。

And that has a short term and a sort of a more medium term element.

這有一個短期因素和一種更中期的因素。

In the short term, some of the pull to par in Q2 was actually Q1 losses given the market movements, and we expect some more of that to bleed into earnings in the second half of the year.

從短期來看，考慮到市場走勢，第二季的部分拉力實際上是第一季的虧損，我們預計其中更多的部分將在今年下半年滲透到盈利中。

So there's a short-term element.

所以有一個短期因素。

It's actually also, given the way the hedges work, there's also a longer-term element which we expect to come out over a much longer period of time.

事實上，考慮到對沖的運作方式，還有一個長期因素，我們預計會在更長的時間內出現。

So yes, in a sense, there's a positive balance, call it that way, that is to come.

所以，是的，從某種意義上說，存在著一種積極的平衡，可以這麼說，即將到來。

There's also the impact of our, you know, our swap funding book, which is helpful.

還有我們的互換融資手冊的影響，這很有幫助。

It today represents it's driven by the differential between euro and dollar rates.

如今，它是由歐元和美元匯率差異所驅動的。

That's remained by and large supportive.

這總體上仍然是支持性的。

And how that trends from here will depend on the gap between the two rates.

接下來的趨勢將取決於兩個利率之間的差距。

So different parts, I don't see it disappearing in a heartbeat, but over time would moderate -- Let's say in a two, three-year time horizon.

所以不同的部分，我不認為它會立即消失，但隨著時間的推移，它會減弱——比如說在兩年、三年的時間範圍內。

Great.

偉大的。

Many thanks.

非常感謝。

Matthew Clark, Mediobanca.

馬修克拉克，Mediobanca。

Hi.

你好。

It's just a follow up question on the leverage loan, potential ECB supervisory expectations deductions compared to your risk-weighted add-on -- Pillar two add-on.

這只是一個關於槓桿貸款的後續問題，與風險加權附加項（第二支柱附加項）相比，潛在的歐洲央行監管預期扣除額。

So do you see that the supervisory expectations on provisioning as being incremental to the existing Pillar two add-on that you have, or do you see it as potentially netting a gain for -- effective burden you've already got some new requirements?

那麼，您是否認為對配置的監管期望是對您現有的第二支柱附加組件的增量，或者您是否認為它有可能為您已經有了一些新要求的有效負擔帶來收益？

Thank you.

謝謝。

But Matthew, it's always hard to speculate about the items which are at the end of the day in the hands of the regulators, again, I really would like to say that we find it positive that the ECB is taking our arguments.

但是馬修，我們總是很難推測最終監管機構手中的項目，我真的想說，我們發現歐洲央行正在接受我們的論點是積極的。

It is reviewing its process.

它正在審查其流程。

I told you that we already were subject to a capital add-on.

我告訴過你，我們已經受到資本附加的限制。

We feel with all the information we have that we have provisioned in an absolute accurate way, and I think we have shown that over the long term.

我們認為我們所掌握的所有資訊都是以絕對準確的方式提供的，而且我認為從長遠來看我們已經證明了這一點。

And therefore, overall, we feel comfortable, but I think it would be the wrong thing now to speculate about anything, I think the direction of the ECB, I find that constructive -- we have constructive discussions and then let's see what happens.

因此，總的來說，我們感覺很舒服，但我認為現在猜測任何事情都是錯誤的，我認為歐洲央行的方向，我認為這是建設性的——我們進行了建設性的討論，然後讓我們看看會發生什麼。

But the direction last year that reduced from 20 basis points to 15 also shows that there was at least some confidence in our processes.

但去年從 20 個基點降至 15 個基點的方向也表明，人們對我們的流程至少有一定的信心。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas Exane.

Jeremy Sigee，法國巴黎銀行 Exane。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just a couple of small follow-ups, please.

請做一些小小的後續行動。

Firstly, on the changes in regulatory adjustments, that helped capital in the quarter.

首先，監管調整的變化對本季的資本有所幫助。

Can you talk a bit more about what those were and whether there's more of them to come or any reversals or they just are what they are so and that would be helpful.

你能多談談這些是什麼，以及是否還會有更多的變化或任何逆轉，或者它們就是這樣，這會有所幫助。

And then my second question is just on the Russia case you mentioned in the notes.

我的第二個問題是關於你在筆記中提到的俄羅斯案例。

Could you confirm that there's no financial impact in this quarter.

您能否確認本季沒有財務影響？

And in fact, there's no provision booked because it's fully offset by the claim.

事實上，沒有預訂任何準備金，因為它已被索賠完全抵消。

And just how confident you are in that?

您對此有多大信心？

Because other banks involved seem to be taking charges relating to that case.

因為其他涉案銀行似乎正在接受與該案相關的指控。

Thanks, Jeremy.

謝謝，傑里米。

So I'll refer you on the first question to page 42 ofthe interim report.

因此，我將向您推薦中期報告第 42 頁的第一個問題。

The main driver that we're referring to is what we call the expected loss shortfall.

我們所指的主要驅動因素是我們所說的預期損失缺口。

And that's -- but on that disclosure, you see the various regulatory capital deduction items.

那是 - 但在該披露中，您會看到各種監管資本扣除項目。

The LSF has been something that's increased significantly year on year, reflecting the portfolio changes that we introduced last year and some of that -- I'll call it seasoning of those models.

LSF 逐年顯著增加，反映了我們去年引入的投資組合變化以及其中的一些變化 - 我將其稱為這些模型的調味。

And yes, it's one of the areas that we're now looking at how we can mitigate and manage.

是的，這是我們現在正在研究如何緩解和管理的領域之一。

And so that helped us on the regulatory capital deduction items in the quarter.

這對我們本季的監管資本扣除項目有所幫助。

It's just learning which exposures drive the LSF and how we can we can mitigate that.

只是了解哪些暴露會導致 LSF 以及我們如何減輕這種影響。

To your question about direction of travel, actually, the next step will be up as one more model kind of becomes live in that world.

對於你關於行進方向的問題，實際上，下一步將是隨著另一種模型在該世界中上線。

But then we, I think would be at a sort of a steady state level and we will work to optimize from that.

但我認為我們將處於某種穩定的狀態水平，我們將努力從中進行最佳化。

On Russia, we essentially booked offsetting provision and an indemnification asset.

在俄羅斯，我們基本上登記了抵銷準備和賠償資產。

And so we feel we're appropriately -- the risk is appropriately reflected on the balance sheet and the evolution of the cases has been overall in line with our expectations.

因此，我們認為我們的做法是適當的——風險已適當地反映在資產負債表上，而且案件的演變總體上符合我們的預期。

So we don't see sort of a change in the risk position there and therefore no change in how it's reflected in the financial statements.

因此，我們沒有看到風險狀況發生任何變化，因此財務報表中的反映方式也沒有變化。

Our expectation is that claim will be prosecuted and in a way that enables us to enforce the indemnification claim.

我們的期望是索賠將被起訴，並以一種使我們能夠執行賠償索賠的方式進行。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Andrew Coombs, Citi.

安德魯·庫姆斯，花旗銀行。

Good morning and I think the vast majority of questions have been answered now.

早安，我想現在絕大多數問題都已經解答。

But perhaps I can just ask on slide 29 on your interest income sensitivity.

但也許我可以在幻燈片 29 上詢問您對利息收入的敏感度。

To take in light of the PMI data today, I think this is the first time we switch this from ['24 to '26, '25 to '27] sensitivity and got a big step uptick in euro sensitivity coming through in 2027.

鑑於今天的 PMI 數據，我認為這是我們第一次將敏感度從 ['24 改為 '26，'25 改為 '27]]，並在 2027 年實現了歐元敏感度的大幅提升。

I assume it isn't related to the structural hedge but hence you can do in terms of providing more color on why such a big step-up coming through from '26 to '27 in your interest rate sensitivity guidance?

我認為這與結構性對沖無關，但因此您可以提供更多信息，說明為什麼您的利率敏感性指導從“26”到“27”會出現如此大的提升？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Andrew.

謝謝，安德魯。

Appreciate the question.

感謝這個問題。

Really just time.

真的只是時間。

Actually the first time when we prepared this slide, I was surprised because it looked like the sensitivity it expanded.

實際上，當我們第一次準備這張投影片時，我很驚訝，因為它看起來像是它擴展了的靈敏度。

And I missed that we'd moved it forward by a year.

我錯過了我們把它提前了一年。

And so that gives you an indication of how successful we've been, frankly in closing down the rate sensitivity on our balance sheet.

坦白說，這讓您知道我們在降低資產負債表上的利率敏感度方面取得了多麼成功。

So '27 being larger is simply a function that are our hedge portfolio, you know, are less of it goes out that far in time.

因此，'27 規模更大隻是我們對沖投資組合的一個功能，你知道，在那麼長的時間裡，它的數量較少。

And what you'd expect to see us do as we roll over the hedges is bring more of that in and reduce the sensitivity further down the track and equivalently the EUR90 million in '27 on Euros, I would expect to see go down, unless there's some change in our view of the, you know, of the likely future path of interest rates.

當我們滾動對沖時，你期望看到我們做的是引入更多的資金並進一步降低敏感性，相當於 27 年歐元的 9000 萬歐元，我預計會下降，除非你知道，我們對未來可能的利率走勢的看法發生了一些變化。

And so in short, I'm happy with the way that we've managed the sort of ALM challenges of the last several years.

簡而言之，我對過去幾年我們應對 ALM 挑戰的方式感到滿意。

And I think, again, it's one of the things that gives us confidence and visibility into revenues in the future is the success of our hedging and the impact of the hedge rollover over the next several years.

我認為，讓我們對未來收入充滿信心和可見性的因素之一是我們對沖的成功以及對沖展期對未來幾年的影響。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question.

女士們先生們，這是最後一個問題。

I would now like to turn the conference back over to Ioana Patriniche for any closing remarks.

現在我想將會議轉回 Ioana Patriniche 進行閉幕致詞。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for joining us and for your questions.

感謝您加入我們並提出問題。

For any follow-ups, please come through to the Investor Relations team.

如需任何後續事宜，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。

And we look forward to speaking to you on our third-quarter call.

我們期待在第三季的電話會議上與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded and you may disconnect.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束，您可以斷開連接了。

Thank you for joining and have a pleasant day.

感謝您的加入並祝您有個愉快的一天。

Goodbye.

再見。