Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Q1 2024 Fixed Income Conference Call. I am Francine, the Chorus Call operator. (Operator Instructions) and the conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，午安。歡迎參加 2024 年第一季固定收益電話會議。我是法蘭辛，合唱呼叫操作員。 （操作員指示）並且正在錄製會議。

The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

演講結束後將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）

At this time, it is my pleasure to turn the conference over to Philip Teuchner, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

此時此刻，我很高興將會議交給投資人關係部門的 Philip Teuchner。請繼續。

Good afternoon or good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. On the call, our Group Treasurer, Richard Stewart, will take us through some fixed income-specific topics. For the subsequent Q&A session, we also have our CFO, James von Moltke, with us to answer your questions.

下午好或早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們。在電話會議上，我們的集團財務主管理查德·斯圖爾特（Richard Stewart）將向我們介紹一些固定收益特定主題。在隨後的問答環節中，我們的財務長 James von Moltke 也將與我們一起回答您的問題。

The slides that accompany the topics are available for download from our website at db.com. After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions.

主題隨附的投影片可從我們的網站 db.com 下載。演示結束後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

Before we get started, I just want to remind you that the presentation may contain forward-looking statements, which may not develop as we currently expect. Therefore, please take note of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，簡報中可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能不會按照我們目前的預期發展。因此，請注意我們材料末尾的預防警告。

With that, let me hand over to Richard.

接下來，讓我把任務交給理查。

Thank you, Philip, and welcome from me. In February, we laid out a clear path to our 2025 objectives for financial performance and capital distributions, and we have delivered in line with our objectives and targets. Let me unpack some of the drivers of our first quarter results on Slide 1.

謝謝你，菲利普，也歡迎我的到來。今年 2 月，我們為實現 2025 年財務表現和資本分配目標制定了明確的道路，並且我們已經按照我們的目標和指標實現了目標。讓我在投影片 1 上解說我們第一季業績的一些驅動因素。

Preprovision profit was up 11% year-on-year to EUR 2.5 billion and more than 20% higher since we launched our Global Hausbank strategy. This reflected continued progress on driving operating leverage, which is a core element of our strategy execution.

預撥備利潤年增 11%，達到 25 億歐元，自我們推出 Global Hausbank 策略以來，增幅超過 20%。這反映出在推動營運槓桿方面不斷取得進展，而營運槓桿是我們策略執行的核心要素。

We increased revenues in our operating divisions by 3% year-on-year while group revenues were up 1% on a reported basis. Group revenues include Corporate & Other, which tends to add some level of volatility into our revenue line.

根據報告，我們營運部門的營收年增了 3%，而集團收入成長了 1%。集團收入包括企業收入和其他收入，這往往會增加我們收入線的一定程度的波動性。

As committed, we delivered growth in noninterest revenues and saw an increase of 11% year-on-year in commissions and fee income, mainly in divisions where we made investments last year.

我們按照承諾實現了非利息收入的成長，佣金和費用收入年增了 11%，主要是我們去年投資的部門。

Net interest income remained stable in our banking books, but declined on a reported basis as expected.

我們的銀行帳戶淨利息收入保持穩定，但報告基礎上的下降符合預期。

We reduced adjusted costs by 6% year-on-year and 5% sequentially to around EUR 5 billion, in line with our guidance.

根據我們的指導，我們將調整後的成本年減了 6%，較上季降低了 5%，達到約 50 億歐元。

Now let me turn to the progress across our strategic dimensions on Slide 2. Starting with revenues, we have delivered a compound annual growth rate of 6% since 2021, in line with our raised target range of 5.5% to 6.5% from 2021 to 2025. As promised, we grew mainly in capital-light businesses with strong growth in Origination and Advisory as well as in the Private Bank and in Asset Management, supported by high inflows of assets under management underlying our franchise momentum. We aim to build on these developments as our franchise expands following our investments in growth initiatives across all business segments.

現在讓我談談幻燈片2 中我們策略層面的進展。目標範圍正如所承諾的那樣，我們的成長主要集中在輕資本業務上，在發起和諮詢以及私人銀行和資產管理領域的強勁增長，受到我們特許經營勢頭所支持的管理資產大量流入的支持。我們的目標是在這些發展的基礎上，隨著我們對所有業務部門的成長計畫的投資，我們的特許經營權不斷擴大。

With net interest income resilience at the start of the year and growth in noninterest revenues, we feel we are well on our way to our 2025 revenue ambitions.

憑藉年初淨利息收入的彈性和非利息收入的成長，我們認為我們正在順利實現 2025 年的收入目標。

We continue to deliver on our EUR 2.5 billion operational efficiency program. We have completed measures with delivered or expected savings of EUR 1.4 billion, nearly 6% of our target, with around EUR 1 billion in savings already realized. The incremental efficiencies this quarter were driven by optimization of our businesses in Germany and the reshaping of our workforce in nonclient-facing roles.

我們持續實施 25 億歐元的營運效率計畫。我們已經完成了措施，已實現或預期節省 14 億歐元，接近目標的 6%，並且已經實現了約 10 億歐元的節省。本季效率的提高是由於我們在德國的業務優化以及非面向客戶角色的員工隊伍的重塑所推動的。

We have further incremental measures already underway, including reengineering of our operating model via additional front-to-back improvements of product processes and harmonization of infrastructure capabilities. This gives us full confidence that we will deliver on our commitment on a quarterly run rate of adjusted cost of around EUR 5 billion in 2024 and total costs of around EUR 20 billion in 2025.

我們已經在採取進一步的漸進措施，包括透過從前到後的產品流程改進和基礎設施能力的協調來重新設計我們的營運模式。這讓我們充滿信心，我們將兌現我們的承諾，即 2024 年調整後成本季度運行率約為 50 億歐元，2025 年總成本約為 200 億歐元。

Finally, on capital efficiency, we achieved a further EUR 2 billion reduction in RWAs in the first quarter, bringing aggregate reductions to EUR 15 billion, already more than half our target range of EUR 25 billion to EUR 30 billion.

最後，在資本效率方面，我們在第一季實現了 RWA 進一步減少 20 億歐元，使總減少額達到 150 億歐元，已經超過我們 250 億至 300 億歐元目標範圍的一半。

We continued to progress the capital efficiency measures with further reductions coming from data and process improvements as well as further securitizations.

我們繼續推動資本效率措施，透過數據和流程改進以及進一步的證券化進一步減少資本效率。

Let us now take a look at provision for credit losses on Slide 3. Provision for credit losses in the first quarter was EUR 439 million, equivalent to 37 basis points of average range. The decline compared to the previous quarter was driven by a moderate Stage 1 and 2 releases of EUR 32 million due to improved macroeconomic forecast and model recalibration effects, which occurred in the prior quarter. Stage 3 provisions at EUR 471 million remained elevated at a similar level compared to the previous quarter. This included the continued weakness in the commercial real estate sector, mainly impacting the Investment Bank and the continued impact of the operational backlog in the Private Bank.

現在讓我們來看看投影片 3 上的信用損失準備金。與上一季相比下降的原因是第一階段和第二階段適度釋放了 3,200 萬歐元，這是由於上一季宏觀經濟預測改善和模型重新校準效應所致。第三階段準備金為 4.71 億歐元，與上一季相比仍處於類似水準。這包括商業房地產領域的持續疲軟，主要影響投資銀行以及私人銀行業務積壓的持續影響。

Our full year guidance for provisions is unchanged at the higher end of the range of 25 to 30 basis points of average loans. This reflects our expectations that provisions will remain elevated in the first half of the year and should gradually reduce in the second half of the year. The decline is expected to be driven by an improvement in the CRE sector and the partial reversal of backlog-related provisions in the private bank. Overall, the underlying quality of our loan portfolio remains solid.

我們的全年撥備指引維持在平均貸款 25 至 30 個基點的上限不變。這反映了我們預計上半年撥備將保持在較高水平，下半年應逐漸減少。預計這一下降將由商業房地產行業的改善以及私人銀行積壓相關準備金的部分逆轉所推動。總體而言，我們的貸款組合的基本品質仍然穩固。

Moving now to the development in our loan and deposit books over the quarter on Slide 4. All figures in the commentary are adjusted for FX effects. Overall, loans have remained essentially flat during the first quarter. Across segments, client demand has remained muted while we have seen encouraging momentum in O&A within the Investment Bank and the Private Bank.

現在轉向幻燈片 4 中本季貸款和存款帳簿的發展情況。整體而言，第一季貸款基本上持平。在各個細分市場中，客戶需求仍然低迷，而我們在投資銀行和私人銀行內部的 O&A 方面看到了令人鼓舞的勢頭。

Looking ahead, despite a challenging macro environment for lending businesses, we continue to expect growth in strategic areas by gaining market share.

展望未來，儘管貸款業務面臨充滿挑戰的宏觀環境，但我們仍預期透過擴大市場佔有率來實現策略領域的成長。

Our deposit book grew by EUR 9 billion compared to last quarter. This growth has been most pronounced in the Corporate Bank with EUR 8 billion of inflows while growth in other segments was essentially flat.

與上季相比，我們的存款簿增加了 90 億歐元。這種成長在企業銀行中最為明顯，流入量為 80 億歐元，而其他領域的成長則基本持平。

We remain very pleased with the quality of our deposit portfolio as we benefit from a strong footprint in our German home market and from high diversification across client segments and products with little reliance on institutional wholesale funding.

我們對存款組合的品質仍然非常滿意，因為我們受益於我們在德國本土市場的強大足跡以及客戶群和產品的高度多元化，幾乎不依賴機構批發資金。

For the remainder of the year, we expect a moderation of our deposit growth compared to prior quarters.

在今年剩餘時間內，我們預計存款成長將較前幾個季度放緩。

In the appendix, we provide further granularity around the quality of our loan and deposit portfolio.

在附錄中，我們進一步詳細介紹了貸款和存款組合的品質。

Let's just now have a look at our net interest income on Slide 5. Net interest income for the group at EUR 3.1 billion decreased by approximately EUR 100 million compared to the previous quarter with the reduction being driven by accounting effects. As a reminder, these effects are revenue-neutral on a group level as a decrease in NII is offset by an increase in noninterest revenues.

現在讓我們來看看幻燈片 5 上的淨利息收入。需要提醒的是，這些影響在集團層面上是收入中立的，因為NII的下降被非利息收入的增加所抵消。

Excluding these accounting effects, banking book NII was essentially flat as the decline in the Private Bank was offset by the increase in the Corporate Bank and lower funding costs in the Investment Bank and Corporate & Other.

排除這些會計影響，銀行帳簿NII基本上持平，因為私人銀行的下降被企業銀行的成長以及投資銀行和企業及其他融資成本的降低所抵消。

The reduction in the Private Bank NII was largely driven by the nonrecurrence of favorable one-offs as well as the ongoing impact of beta normalization. On an absolute basis, NII in the Private Bank is in line with last quarter's guidance.

私人銀行NII的減少主要是由於有利的一次性事件的不再發生以及貝塔正常化的持續影響。從絕對值來看，私人銀行的NII與上季的指引一致。

The increase in Corporate Bank NII was due to a positive one-off impact from a CLO recovery, which was accounted as NII with deposit betas showing a steady increase in line with our assumptions.

企業銀行NII的增加是由於CLO復甦帶來的一次性正面影響，該影響被計入NII，存款貝塔顯示穩定成長，符合我們的假設。

We expect to see Corporate Bank NII decline in the coming quarters as betas continue to normalize.

我們預計，隨著貝塔係數繼續正常化，企業銀行 NII 將在未來幾季下降。

NII in FIC financing was essentially flat quarter-on-quarter. We are starting to see margin expansion on the asset side, which, if it continues, will help offset margin compression from beta normalization.

FIC融資中的NII環比基本持平。我們開始看到資產的利潤率擴張，如果這種情況持續下去，將有助於抵銷貝塔正常化帶來的利潤率壓縮。

In summary, the development in the first quarter reinforces our expectation that we'll meet or improve on our prior guidance of a EUR 600 million reduction in banking book NII for 2024 relative to the prior year.

總之，第一季的發展強化了我們的預期，即我們將達到或改善我們先前的指導，即 2024 年銀行帳戶 NII 較上年減少 6 億歐元。

On Slide 6, we provide details on the sensitivity of our net interest income to interest rates. Our rate sensitivity is slightly lower compared to the prior quarter due to effects of beta normalization as well as the impact of increased hedging as we look to position the balance sheet for the current interest rate environment. Our sensitivity increases over time as a greater share of our portfolio comes due for renewal with the majority of our sensitivity in the later years coming from our euro books.

在投影片 6 中，我們詳細介紹了淨利息收入對利率的敏感度。由於貝塔正常化的影響以及我們希望根據當前利率環境定位資產負債表而增加對沖的影響，我們的利率敏感性比上一季略低。我們的敏感度隨著時間的推移而增加，因為我們的投資組合中更大的份額需要更新，而我們在接下來的幾年中的大部分敏感性來自我們的歐元帳簿。

Given that our hedge portfolio has an average duration of between 4 and 5 years, more than 90% of our hedge income for 2024 is already locked in.

鑑於我們的對沖投資組合的平均久期在 4 至 5 年之間，我們 2024 年超過 90% 的對沖收入已被鎖定。

As we discussed last quarter, our strategy is to stabilize NII, reduce sensitivity to unexpected market moves, and at current rates, we would expect to see a long-term tailwind from the rollover of our hedge books at current long-term rates.

正如我們上季度所討論的，我們的策略是穩定NII，降低對意外市場波動的敏感性，按照目前的利率，我們預計我們的對沖帳簿按當前的長期利率進行展期將帶來長期的推動作用。

Moving to Slide 7, highlighting the development of our key liquidity metrics. With a daily average liquidity coverage ratio of 136%, we continued to operate with a robust liquidity position throughout the first quarter. The stock of EUR 222 billion of HQLA, of which about 95% are held in cash and Level 1 securities, was essentially flat compared to last quarter.

前往投影片 7，重點介紹我們關鍵流動性指標的發展。日均流動性覆蓋率為136%，第一季流動性狀況持續保持強勁。 HQLA 的存量為 2,220 億歐元，其中約 95% 為現金和 1 級證券，與上季相比基本持平。

Deposit growth in the Corporate Bank facilitated the full repayment of our remaining EUR 15 billion of TLTRO. This included voluntary prepayments of EUR 12 billion, well ahead of scheduled maturity.

公司銀行存款的成長促進了我們剩餘 150 億歐元 TLTRO 的全額償還。其中包括 120 億歐元的自願預付款，遠遠提前於預定到期日。

The surplus above the regulatory minimum slightly decreased by about EUR 4 billion to EUR 58 billion as a result of higher net cash outflows, mainly on the back of continued deposit growth.

由於淨現金流出增加（主要是由於存款持續成長），高於監管最低限額的盈餘小幅減少約 40 億歐元，至 580 億歐元。

The net stable funding ratio at 123% reflects the stability of our balance sheet despite the early repayments of TLTRO in the quarter. This corresponds to a surplus of EUR 112 billion above the regulatory requirement.

儘管本季度 TLTRO 提前還款，但 123% 的淨穩定資金比率反映了我們資產負債表的穩定性。這相當於超出監管要求 1,120 億歐元的盈餘。

The available longer-term stable funding sources for the bank remain well diversified and are mainly supported by a robust deposit franchise, which continues contributing about 2/3 of the group's stable funding base. We aim to maintain this funding mix going forward.

該銀行可用的長期穩定資金來源仍然十分多元化，主要受到強大的存款業務的支持，該業務繼續貢獻該集團約2/3的穩定資金基礎。我們的目標是繼續維持這種融資組合。

Turning to capital on Slide 8. Our first quarter Common Equity Tier 1 ratio came in at 13.4% compared to 13.7% at year-end 2023. We had a strong capital supply this quarter and the sequential decline was driven by our distribution actions and plans together with business growth. 19 basis points of the decrease reflects the ECB approval for our EUR 675 million share buyback, which we commenced in March. Half of first quarter net income was deducted for future capital distributions in line with our 50% payout ratio guidance with the remainder supporting other deductions.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的資本。與業務成長一起。下降 19 個基點反映了歐洲央行批准了我們於 3 月開始的 6.75 億歐元股票回購。根據我們 50% 的派息率指導，第一季淨利潤的一半被扣除用於未來資本分配，其餘部分用於支持其他扣除額。

12 basis points of the decrease came from RWA growth. The increase in RWA is net of reduction due to RWA optimization achieved during the quarter.

下降 12 個基點來自 RWA 成長。 RWA 的成長已扣除本季實現的 RWA 優化帶來的減少。

Our capital ratios, whilst reduced quarter-on-quarter, remained well above regulatory requirements as shown on Slide 9. On the 1st of January this year, our Pillar 2 requirement has reduced following last year's SREP process. This has lowered our MDA level by 3 basis points for the CET1 ratio and by 5 basis points for the total capital ratio. Our CET1 MDA buffer now stands at 229 basis points or EUR 8 billion of CET1 capital.

我們的資本比率雖然逐季下降，但仍遠高於監管要求，如幻燈片 9 所示。這使我們的 CET1 比率的 MDA 水準降低了 3 個基點，總資本比率降低了 5 個基點。我們的 CET1 MDA 緩衝目前為 229 個基點，即 80 億歐元的 CET1 資本。

Moving to Slide 10. At the end of the first quarter, our leverage ratio was 4.5%, 8 basis points lower compared to the previous quarter. The decline was primarily driven by lower Tier 1 capital, in line with the movement in CET1 capital.

轉向投影片10。下降的主要原因是一級資本下降，與 CET1 資本的變動一致。

Leverage exposure was materially unchanged with lower cash balances, offset by higher trading-related exposure.

槓桿風險實質上沒有變化，現金餘額減少，但被交易相關風險增加抵銷。

We continue to operate with a significant loss-absorbing capacity well above all our requirements as shown on Slide 11. The MREL surplus, our most binding constraint, stood at EUR 16 billion at the end of the quarter, a comfortable level continuing to provide us with the flexibility to pause issuing new eligible liabilities instruments for approximately 1 year.

我們繼續以遠高於我們所有要求的顯著損失吸收能力進行運營，如幻燈片11 所示。我們提供舒適的條件可以靈活地暫停發行新的合格負債工具約一年。

Looking ahead, we expect a slightly higher binding MREL requirement from the SRB in the second quarter of 2024, which will only marginally reduce the existing headroom.

展望未來，我們預計 SRB 在 2024 年第二季提出的具有約束力的 MREL 要求將略高，這只會略微減少現有的空間。

Moving now to our issuance plan on Slide 12. We took advantage of the favorable market conditions in the first quarter to make further progress on completing our issuance plan. As of now, we have issued EUR 7 billion, which is close to 50% of the midpoint of our 2024 plan. Highlights included senior nonpreferred issuances in U.S. dollar, euro and Sing dollar, together with a CNY 3 billion senior preferred transaction, our third and largest panda bond to date.

現在轉到幻燈片 12 上的發行計劃。截至目前，我們已發行了 70 億歐元，接近 2024 年計畫中位數的 50%。亮點包括美元、歐元和新加坡元的高級非優先發行，以及30億元人民幣的高級優先交易，這是我們迄今為止第三筆也是最大一筆熊貓債券。

We reaffirm the guidance of EUR 13 million to EUR 18 billion for the full year 2024 issuance plan and expect to be active across the capital stack for the remainder of the year.

我們重申 2024 年全年發行計畫 1,300 萬至 180 億歐元的指導，並預計在今年剩餘時間內在整個資本體系中保持活躍。

Some of you have asked us about our approach when evaluating call decisions, particularly those coming up in 2025 for our AT1 securities. I can reiterate our previous guidance that we always assess the economics of any call decision, for example, the refinancing or replacement cost versus the [Q4 reset]. There may also be instances where there are additional impacts such as the FX revaluation impact for AT1 securities accounted for as equity, which we also consider.

你們中的一些人詢問了我們在評估看漲期權決策時的方法，特別是 2025 年我們的 AT1 證券的看漲期權決策。我可以重申我們先前的指導，即我們始終評估任何呼叫決策的經濟性，例如，再融資或重置成本與[第四季度重置]。也可能有其他影響的情況，例如作為權益核算的 AT1 證券的外匯重估影響，我們也考慮了這一點。

Before going to your questions, let me conclude with a summary on Slide 13. The first quarter showed that the expected benefits from our investments are materializing and will help to drive growth in noninterest revenues while we have limited the downside on our interest income through our interest rate hedging activity. This demonstrates that our businesses are positioned for further growth, contributing to delivery of our revenue target of around EUR 30 billion in 2024.

在回答大家的問題之前，讓我對投影片 13 進行總結。這表明我們的業務已做好進一步成長的準備，有助於實現 2024 年約 300 億歐元的收入目標。

We affirm our target to maintain our quarterly run rate of around EUR 5 billion of adjusted costs this year and around EUR 20 billion for the full year.

我們確認今年調整後成本季度運作率維持在 50 億歐元左右，全年維持在 200 億歐元左右。

We expect provisions for the year to come at the higher end of our guidance range of 25 to 30 basis points of average loans. We're well positioned with our CET1 ratio of 13.4%, and we maintain a comfortable liquidity position above our targets.

我們預計今年的準備金將達到我們指導範圍的上限，即平均貸款 25 至 30 個基點。我們的 CET1 比率為 13.4%，處於有利位置，我們保持高於目標的舒適流動性狀況。

Overall, our full focus remains on our progress through the execution of our strategy and delivering on our 2025 targets.

總體而言，我們的重點仍然是透過執行策略和實現 2025 年目標來取得進展。

With that, let's turn to your questions.

那麼，讓我們來回答你的問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Daniel David.

女士們、先生們，現在我們將開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Daniel David。

I have a couple of questions. You kind of referred to it partially with your remarks at the end of that, but with the capital instrument issuance of EUR 1 billion to EUR 2 billion in the plan per year, can you give us any steer what's informing the decision here, noting there isn't any calls or maturities this year, but clearly, there is next year?

我有一些問題。您在最後的演講中部分提到了這一點，但是隨著計劃中每年發行 10 億至 20 億歐元的資本工具，您能否給我們提供任何指導，說明這裡的決定是什麼？或到期，但顯然明年有？

And then separately, maybe related, how do you think from today's perspective regarding the [calls of 3 AT1s] that are up for call next year? Assuming that the economics vary deal by deal, would you make different decisions based on those numbers and how you see it? Any information would be great.

然後，單獨地，也許是相關的，從今天的角度來看，您如何看待明年待召喚的[召喚 3 輛 AT1]？假設每筆交易的經濟情況各不相同，您會根據這些數字以及您的看法做出不同的決定嗎？任何資訊都會很棒。

And then secondly, just in the earnings call yesterday, you're quite bullish on outperforming the prior guidance on NII. Can you remind us just the divisional trends you're seeing and how this might play out in 2025?

其次，就在昨天的財報電話會議上，您非常看好 NII 的表現將超越先前的指導。您能否提醒我們您所看到的部門趨勢以及這種趨勢在 2025 年可能會如何發展？

So I take the first question on the AT1. So you're right. I can just -- I alluded to it in my remarks, but just for clarification. So we stick with our guidance, as you say, for capital around EUR 1 billion to EUR 2 billion going from ATI and T2s in 2024. And we will update in due course when we reached a decision around which instruments and the timing of that.

我來回答關於 AT1 的第一個問題。所以你是對的。我可以——我在發言中提到過這一點，但只是為了澄清。因此，正如您所說，我們堅持我們的指導，到 2024 年，ATI 和 T2 的資本約為 10 億至 20 億歐元。

In terms of calls, DB will continue to make decisions regarding the exercise of an issuer call closer to the exercise date, balancing the interest of all of our stakeholders. Our approach is based on economic factors, including the usefulness of the instrument for capital funding and rating agency metrics, as well as the cost of the instrument versus other alternatives.

在贖回權方面，DB將繼續在接近行使日期時就行使發行人贖回權做出決定，以平衡所有利害關係人的利益。我們的方法基於經濟因素，包括該工具對於資本融資和評級機構指標的有用性，以及該工具相對於其他替代方案的成本。

I would note that the non-euro AT1 issuance, the historic FX balances also can play a role and can change that call decision even if that call is beneficial from a credit perspective. We would note that despite the improvement in AT1 spreads we've seen this year, the reset spreads on most instruments are still below current market new issue levels, which are reflected in some of those instruments traded below par. And obviously, we will continue to monitor this as we progress through 2024.

我要指出的是，非歐元 AT1 發行、歷史外匯餘額也可以發揮作用，並且可以改變該看漲期權決策，即使該看漲期權從信貸角度來看是有利的。我們要指出的是，儘管今年我們看到 AT1 利差有所改善，但大多數工具的重置利差仍然低於當前市場新發行水平，這反映在一些交易價格低於面值的工具上。顯然，隨著 2024 年的進展，我們將繼續監控這一情況。

And in terms of the NII question, so yes, I think bullish is a pretty fair characterization. We touched on this in a few different answers to questions yesterday. So let me try and bring the overall picture together. In terms of magnitude, I think, James, our CFO, said yesterday, that's comfortably in the triple-digit millions for 2024 would be a reasonable assumption. And I'll reiterate that, but as you know, it's not our practice to be more specific at this stage. We see that benefit persisting into 2025 and beyond in fact. So you can think of that as a parallel shift up versus the prior guidance.

就 NII 問題而言，是的，我認為看漲是一個相當公平的描述。昨天我們在幾個不同的問題答案中談到了這一點。因此，讓我嘗試將整體情況整合在一起。我們的財務長詹姆斯昨天表示，就規模而言，我認為 2024 年達到三位數數百萬是一個合理的假設。我會重申這一點，但正如你所知，我們的做法不是在現階段提供更具體的資訊。事實上，我們認為這種好處將持續到 2025 年及以後。因此，您可以將其視為與先前指導相比的平行升級。

In terms of drivers of that improvement, there are a few different elements. So one is on the deposit side where we have been seeing some higher volumes as well as betas increasing, but still outperforming our initial model assumptions. And our loans, like a number of banks who have also reported, we are beginning to see some margin expansion as our forward funding rates are coming down and the client rates are remaining stable.

就這種改進的驅動因素而言，有幾個不同的因素。因此，在存款方面，我們看到交易量增加，貝塔值也在增加，但仍然優於我們最初的模型假設。我們的貸款，就像許多也報告過的銀行一樣，隨著我們的遠期融資利率下降且客戶利率保持穩定，我們開始看到利潤率擴大。

And then our funding costs are benefiting now from -- we're seeing that in the marketplace, our new issuance spreads continue to tighten relative to our peers and so less of an outlier. And obviously, we're pleased by that. It's, I think, reflective of sort of the rating upgrades that we've seen over the last year or so, but in part because of the continued delivery on our strategy.

然後我們的融資成本現在受益於——我們看到在市場上，我們的新發行利差相對於同業繼續收緊，因此不再是異常值。顯然，我們對此感到高興。我認為，這反映了我們在過去一年左右看到的評級升級，但部分原因是我們策略的持續實施。

And across the portfolio, really the only area we're not seeing a tailwind is in the loan volumes where, again, as with other banks, we're seeing less client demand at this point in the cycle.

在整個投資組合中，我們唯一沒有看到順風的領域是貸款量，與其他銀行一樣，我們在週期的此時點看到客戶需求減少。

And when I think about the divisional picture, I'll say this is largely unchanged from our prior guidance. So in our prepared remarks that James and Christian went through yesterday, we talked to the fact that for this quarter, the trends are a little bit impacted by one-offs, which is a sequential negative for the Private Bank and a positive one for the Corporate Bank.

當我考慮部門情況時，我會說這與我們先前的指導基本上沒有變化。因此，在詹姆斯和克里斯蒂安昨天準備好的演講中，我們談到了這樣一個事實，即本季度的趨勢有點受到一次性的影響，這對私人銀行來說是一個連續的負面影響，但對私人銀行來說是一個正面的影響。

So when we look through that, the underlying development by business is very much consistent with our previous messaging, which is that we expect a large decline in the Corporate Bank and then in the Private Bank over the full year. But as I just said, the overall outlook is looking more positive than we've guided at the start of the year. So hopefully that answers your questions, Daniel.

因此，當我們仔細審視這一點時，業務的基本發展與我們先前的資訊非常一致，即我們預計全年企業銀行和私人銀行將大幅下降。但正如我剛才所說，整體前景看起來比我們年初的指導更為樂觀。希望這能回答你的問題，丹尼爾。

If I could just push you just maybe on the AT1. So I guess you've got a couple of calls on the same date in 2025 with slightly different reset spread. So is it right to assume that you'll address them differently depending on the way that the economic play out? So i.e., you could call one and extend another? .

如果我能推你一下，也許你可以開 AT1。所以我猜你在 2025 年的同一天接到了幾通電話，重置點差略有不同。那麼，是否可以假設您將根據經濟發展的方式以不同的方式解決這些問題？也就是說，您可以調用一個並擴展另一個嗎？ 。

So it's an interesting theoretical question, I guess. We'll look at that when we get closer to the time. But what we would be looking at is for -- in the round what that looks like is one consideration. But yes, what's -- the initial assessment will be done on an issue-by-issue basis.

所以我想這是一個有趣的理論問題。當我們臨近時間時我們會考慮這一點。但我們要考慮的是——總的來說，這只是一個考慮因素。但是，是的，初步評估將逐個問題進行。

Our next question comes from Lee Street from Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Lee Street。

Well done results. Two for me, please. Firstly, quite high level, but as you sit there today, when you take into account all factors, the operational, market, regulatory economics, what do you think there is the greatest risk to Deutsche Bank not hitting its 2024 and '25 financial objectives? .

做得很好的結果。請給我兩個。首先，相當高的水平，但當你今天坐在那裡，當你考慮到所有因素，營運、市場、監管經濟學時，你認為德意志銀行無法實現 2024 年和 25 年財務目標的最大風險是什麼？ 。

And secondly, looking at the balance sheet from a Treasurer's perspective, what do you see is the least efficient part of the liability side of the Deutsche Bank balance sheet and what might you look to do about it? That would be my two questions.

其次，從財務主管的角度來看資產負債表，您認為德意志銀行資產負債表負債方面效率最低的部分是什麼？這是我的兩個問題。

It's James, maybe I'll take the first. Look, we have to execute, so we've laid out a plan. I think we're executing as we demonstrated in the first quarter well on that plan. But of course, that needs to continue.

是詹姆斯，也許我會第一個。聽著，我們必須執行，所以我們制定了一個計劃。我認為我們正在執行該計劃，正如我們在第一季所展示的那樣。但當然，這需要繼續下去。

Second, obviously, market developments, whether it's financial markets, the state of the economy, interest rates and all that will, of course, play a role. There's lots of things in our control. There are, of course, some things that aren't in our control. And there, we look at some of the nonfinancial risks carefully. And we also -- and that includes litigation risk and other things like cyber. But there, again, we do everything we can to manage to the best outcomes possible in the environment that we're faced with.

其次，顯然，市場發展，無論是金融市場、經濟狀況、利率等等，當然都會發揮作用。有很多事情在我們的掌控之中。當然，有些事情是我們無法控制的。在那裡，我們仔細研究了一些非金融風險。我們也—這包括訴訟風險和網路等其他風險。但在這裡，我們再次盡一切努力在我們面臨的環境中取得盡可能最好的結果。

And then maybe I'll pick up the balance sheet question. So big picture, I think we've done a lot of good work over a number of years now to kind of get the balance sheet that we like given our business strategy and business mix and clients. So in that sense, I think we're in a pretty good shape. I think the issuance stack is as optimized as we can be given the constraints that we need to solve for.

然後也許我會回答資產負債表問題。總體而言，我認為多年來我們已經做了很多出色的工作，根據我們的業務策略、業務組合和客戶，獲得了我們喜歡的資產負債表。所以從這個意義上來說，我認為我們的狀態非常好。我認為發行堆疊已經得到了優化，因為我們可以得到需要解決的約束。

Yes, I think there's always a question around can we be more efficient in the [class] mobilization side of things and where we can be -- increase our velocity of that kind of segment of our portfolio. But overall, I'm pretty happy with the quality of our funding mix.

是的，我認為始終存在一個問題：我們能否在[階級]動員方面更加高效，以及我們可以在哪裡——提高我們投資組合中此類部分的速度。但總的來說，我對我們的融資組合的品質非常滿意。

The next question comes from Robert Smalley from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅伯特‧史莫利。

A couple of questions on loan loss provision and then one on capital. With respect to the loan loss provisions coming down in the second quarter and you're making provisions for real estate, could you give us a little bit of color on some of the renegotiations around real estate.

有幾個關於貸款損失撥備的問題，還有一個關於資本的問題。關於第二季貸款損失準備金下降以及您正在為房地產製定準備金，您能否向我們介紹一些圍繞房地產的重新談判。

And real estate by nature being very lumpy, is most of this done in the first half of the year? Or is it spread out through the year and that might be some of the reason why the provision is going down?

房地產本質上是非常不穩定的，大部分都是在上半年完成的嗎？或者它是否分散在全年中，這可能是準備金下降的部分原因？

Secondly, on the provision, how much of that is predicated, if anything, at all, on ECB cuts and refinancing there and a little relief for corporate clients? We are seeing certainly domestically IFO up 3 months in a row, German [PMI] is up. How much of that also plays into that, too?

其次，就該條款而言，其中有多少是基於歐洲央行的降息和再融資以及對企業客戶的一點緩解（如果有的話）？我們肯定會看到國內 IFO 連續三個月上漲，德國 [PMI] 也在上漲。其中有多少也起到了作用？

And then on capital, just in general, you mentioned that 229 basis points MDA headroom and you like to keep that buffer around 200. Could you just give us a little sense of how you came up with the 200 number? And is that subject to change at any time?

然後在資本方面，總的來說，您提到了 229 個基點的 MDA 淨空，您希望將該緩衝保持在 200 左右。這會隨時改變嗎？

Thanks, Robert. It's James. I'll start on both and Richard may want to add. So first of all, I mean, there's no specific cadence to the renegotiations or the extension events or refinancing events of -- in the CRE portfolio. They just come as they do approach their maturities.

謝謝，羅伯特。是詹姆斯。我將從這兩方面開始，理查德可能想補充一下。首先，我的意思是，商業房地產投資組合中的重新談判、延期事件或再融資事件沒有具體的節奏。他們只是在接近成熟時到來。

We enter into negotiations with the sponsors as we approach those maturity or extension dates. In certain instances, their restructuring is needed, support, commitment on both the part of lenders and sponsors. And it's in those events, whatever the outcome of those events is, may affect our provisioning decisions.

當我們接近這些到期日或延期日期時，我們與贊助商進行談判。在某些情況下，它們的重組是需要貸款人和發起人雙方的支持和承諾的。在這些事件中，無論這些事件的結果是什麼，都可能會影響我們的配置決策。

They're lumpy in the sense that they're big exposures. But remember, the provisioning really will reflect what we believe the recovery is in each individual instance. So each event doesn't necessarily have to be a major CLP event in its own right.

它們是塊狀的，因為它們是大額風險敞口。但請記住，配置確實會反映我們認為每個實例的恢復情況。因此，每項活動本身不一定都是 CLP 的重大活動。

As you said, we do see it on a gradual improving trajectory for a number of reasons, including better stability in terms of pricing recently. And as we've talked about pretty consistently, I'll call it, good behavior or a good partnership between sponsors and lenders that is persisting.

正如您所說，出於多種原因，我們確實看到它處於逐步改善的軌道，包括最近定價方面更加穩定。正如我們一直在談論的那樣，我將其稱為良好的行為或贊助商與貸方之間持續存在的良好夥伴關係。

Lastly, your question was how much are we relying on -- for CLPs generally on stronger economic environment. Actually, the recent German data has improved beyond what we kind of thought and were aware of at March 31. So we're really committing without the benefit of more recent, more favorable data coming in.

最後，你的問題是我們在多大程度上依賴 CLP 通常依賴更強勁的經濟環境。事實上，最近的德國數據已經超出了我們在 3 月 31 日的預期和意識到的情況。

And then quickly on the distance to MDA, there came a time when that appeared to be where the market was going, we had input from yourselves as credit investors and analysts from the rating agencies. And so we took it to be a good buffer to set. But as you probably heard me say in the past, the interesting thing that is, I would argue, creditor-friendly is lots of things are taking place in the calculation, making that calculation and consequently, the buffer, more and more conservative over time. And that's either the measurement of RWA as models change, some of the rules and methodologies that are changing. You're aware that we have a countercyclical buffer or plus for mortgage, a sectoral buffer. And lastly, on a relative basis, a high G-SIB surcharge that applies domestically much higher than our international.

然後很快就到了 MDA，有一段時間這似乎就是市場的發展方向，我們作為信用投資者和評級機構的分析師從你們那裡得到了意見。所以我們認為它是一個很好的緩衝設定。但正如你過去可能聽到我說的那樣，有趣的是，我認為，對債權人友好的是，計算中發生了很多事情，使得計算以及因此緩衝隨著時間的推移變得越來越保守。這要么是模型變化時對 RWA 的衡量，要么是一些正在變化的規則和方法。你知道我們有一個反週期緩衝或附加抵押貸款，一個部門緩衝。最後，相對而言，國內適用的 G-SIB 附加費比國際上適用的要高得多。

So lots of things we think are -- support that buffer as appropriate. There's no consideration at the moment to moving that. But I wouldn't view it as forever in place. If there's changes around us, including in things like P2R or some of the MDA drivers, we might reevaluate, but for now, we're comfortable where we sit.

我們認為很多事情都是——酌情支持該緩衝區。目前沒有考慮移動它。但我不會認為它永遠存在。如果我們周圍發生變化，包括 P2R 或某些 MDA 驅動程式等方面的變化，我們可能會重新評估，但目前，我們對自己的位置感到滿意。

It makes a lot of sense. Thanks for your detailed answers and for doing the call.

這很有道理。感謝您的詳細答覆並撥打電話。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question is from Alexei Lougovtsov from Bank of America.

（操作員指令）我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Alexei Lougovtsov。

My question is also about loan loss provisions. So you discussed your U.S. CRE exposure on Slide 22. And there, you have EUR 10 billion of modified, restructured or defaulted loans. Is it possible to get some breakdown on modified restructured and defaulted?

我的問題還涉及貸款損失準備金。因此，您在投影片 22 上討論了您的美國商業房地產風險敞口。是否有可能獲得有關修改、重組和違約的一些詳細資訊？

And also, you have a 4.8% coverage with CLP. So how do you expect this number will evolve? Would it be sufficient to have a 4.8% coverage for this portfolio?

此外，CLP 的承保率為 4.8%。那麼您預計這個數字將如何演變？該投資組合的覆蓋率 4.8% 是否足夠？

And also when discussing on Slide 3, provisions, you mentioned that provisions should improve in H2 and you specifically mentioned that real estate should improve. You just discussed that your expectations based partially on better economy in Germany, but specifically to real estate, what indications do you see that the situation can get better?

另外，在討論投影片 3 的規定時，您提到下半年的規定應該會有所改善，並且您特別提到房地產應該會有所改善。您剛才談到，您的預期部分基於德國經濟的改善，但具體到房地產，您認為有哪些跡象表明情況會好轉？

So we don't break out the defaulted necessarily, but in fairness, the Stage 3 component of that -- of the total portfolio is, I think, a good indication.

因此，我們不一定要打破違約，但公平地說，我認為總投資組合的第三階段組成部分是一個很好的跡象。

But I do want to just say that -- just to clarify, the 4.8% represents the credit loss provisions that we've taken cumulatively against that EUR 10 billion of loan modifications that is also a cumulative number. So we're trying to help people understand sort of what the amount of credit loss provision is that's being produced by modifications over time, reflecting, as I answered earlier, the difference between at each event, the kind of the book value and what we estimate to be the realizable value.

但我確實想說——只是為了澄清一下，4.8% 代表我們針對 100 億歐元的貸款修改累計採取的信用損失準備金，這也是一個累積數字。因此，我們試圖幫助人們了解隨著時間的推移而修改的信用損失撥備金額是多少，正如我之前回答的那樣，反映了每次事件之間的差異、賬面價值的類型和我們的預期。為可變現價值。

As I said yesterday on the equity call, that modification balance will continue to rise as more loans get to maturity or extension dates. But based on our overall perspective that this will be -- we're in an improving trend, then I would expect that the percentage of new -- the percentage of new CLPs to the new balances that are modified will start to improve.

正如我昨天在股本電話會議上所說，隨著更多貸款到期或延期，修改餘額將繼續增加。但根據我們的整體觀點，我們正處於改善趨勢，那麼我預期新的 CLP 佔修改後的新餘額的百分比將開始改善。

Yes, so that's the main driver. What is causing us to give you this kind of perspective of confidence that we're on an improving trend, it's mostly the valuations in the marketplace that we're seeing. So whether that's on sort of externally available information like indices that are public or what's going on in our own portfolio, so as we get sort of updated valuations, they've tended to firm, and in some cases, actually improve. So that's what we're seeing. But it is, of course, path dependent from here. I hope that helps.

是的，這就是主要驅動力。讓我們給你這種信心，讓你相信我們的趨勢正在改善，這主要是我們看到的市場估值。因此，無論是基於外部可用的信息（例如公開指數）還是我們自己的投資組合中正在發生的事情，因此當我們獲得更新的估值時，它們往往會趨於堅挺，並且在某些情況下實際上會有所改善。這就是我們所看到的。但當然，從這裡開始它依賴於路徑。我希望這有幫助。

Yes, and it helps a lot. And as a follow-up, difference between modifications and the restructuring, in which cases you require sponsors to put more equity. So any color on this would be helpful.

是的，而且很有幫助。作為後續，修改和重組之間的區別，在這種情況下，你需要發起人投入更多的股權。所以任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. So the modification -- look, in the, call it, the worst case, when the sponsor doesn't believe there's value to the project, they will hand the property back to the lenders and then the lenders need to work out as real estate owned that project.

是的。所以修改——看，在最壞的情況下，當贊助商不相信該項目有價值時，他們會將財產返還給貸方，然後貸方需要將其視為房地產擁有該項目。

Typically, what happens in most of the cases, and I might say 90% of the cases, there would be concessions made on the lender's part, extensions, modifications, sometimes rate concessions, but typically, in return for equity injection on the part of the sponsors, meaning a pay down of a portion of the loan. And so that's the behavior that we've been seeing.

通常情況下，在大多數情況下，我可能會說90% 的情況下，貸款人會做出讓步、延期、修改，有時會做出利率讓步，但通常情況下，貸款人會做出股權注入的回報贊助商，意味著償還部分貸款。這就是我們所看到的行為。

We've had pretty significant paydowns over the last sort of 6, 9 months. And that reflects, if you like, that sponsors still see value or see value in the projects, and therefore, lenders and sponsors work together to get those projects through this current cycle.

在過去的六、九個月裡，我們已經支付了相當可觀的付款。如果你願意的話，這反映出贊助商仍然看到了價值或看到了專案的價值，因此，貸款人和贊助商共同努力讓這些專案度過當前的週期。

Ladies and gentlemen, that was our last question. And I would like to turn back to Philip Teuchner for closing comments.

女士們先生們，這是我們的最後一個問題。我想請菲利普·特希納 (Philip Teuchner) 發表結束評論。

Thank you, Francine. And just to finish up, thank you all for joining us today. You know where the IR team is. And if you have any further questions, we look forward to talking to you soon again. Have a good day. Goodbye.

謝謝你，法蘭辛。最後，感謝大家今天加入我們。你知道 IR 團隊在哪裡。如果您還有任何其他問題，我們期待很快再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you very much for joining. Have a pleasant day and a great weekend. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束，你們可以掛斷電話了。非常感謝您的加入。祝您有個愉快的一天和愉快的週末。再見。