Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Deutsche Bank Q2 2023 Fixed Income Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) And I would now like to turn the conference over to Philip Teuchner. Please go ahead.

女士們先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎並感謝您參加德意志銀行 2023 年第二季度固定收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議轉交給 Philip Teuchner。請繼續。

Good afternoon, and good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. On the call, our Group Treasurer, Richard Stewart will take us through some fixed income-specific topics. For the subsequent Q&A session, we also have our CFO, James von Moltke, with us to answer your questions. The slides that accompany the topics are available for download from our website at db.com. After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions. Before we get started, I just want to remind you that the presentation may contain forward-looking statements, which may not develop as we currently expect. Therefore, please take note of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials. With that, let me hand over to Richard.

下午好，早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們。在電話會議上，我們的集團財務主管理查德·斯圖爾特（Richard Stewart）將向我們介紹一些固定收益特定主題。在隨後的問答環節中，我們的首席財務官 James von Moltke 也將與我們一起回答您的問題。主題附帶的幻燈片可從我們的網站 db.com 下載。演示結束後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，演示文稿中可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能不會按照我們目前的預期發展。因此，請注意我們材料末尾的預防警告。接下來，讓我把任務交給理查德。

Thank you, Philip, and welcome from me. It's a pleasure to be discussing our second quarter and first half results with you today. These results provide a good perspective of the progress we are making towards our objectives. We have strong growth momentum and our well-balanced business mix resulted in revenue growth of well above 7% on a compound basis for the last 12 months relative to 2021. This performance puts us well on track to deliver revenue growth above our 2025 target.

謝謝你，菲利普，也歡迎我的到來。很高興今天與您討論我們第二季度和上半年的業績。這些結果為我們實現目標所取得的進展提供了良好的視角。我們擁有強勁的增長動力，而且我們均衡的業務組合使得過去 12 個月的收入增長遠高於 2021 年的 7%。這一表現使我們有望實現高於 2025 年目標的收入增長。

Strong revenue growth, combined with ongoing cost discipline led to a 2 percentage point improvement in the cost/income ratio to 73% in the first 6 months compared to 2022, despite significantly higher nonoperating expenses in the second quarter, which we would not expect to repeat in the same magnitude in the coming periods.

強勁的收入增長，加上持續的成本控制，導致前6 個月的成本/收入比率比2022 年提高了2 個百分點，達到73%，儘管第二季度的非運營支出大幅增加，我們預計這不會出現這種情況。在接下來的時期以相同的幅度重複。

Our post-tax return on tangible equity for the first half of the year was 6.8%, it would have been above 9%, excluding nonoperating costs with bank revenues (inaudible) equally across the year, very close to our 2025 target of above 10%. Our capital position has remained strong and our CET1 ratio of 13.8% positions us well for capital distributions, investments and the implementation of regulatory changes. In short, our performance in the period reaffirms our confidence in reaching our 2025 targets.

我們上半年的有形股本稅後回報率為 6.8%，如果扣除全年銀行收入（聽不清）的非運營成本，則該回報率將高於 9%，非常接近我們 2025 年高於 10 的目標%。我們的資本狀況依然強勁，13.8% 的 CET1 比率使我們在資本分配、投資和監管變革的實施方面處於有利地位。簡而言之，我們這一時期的表現再次堅定了我們實現 2025 年目標的信心。

In the second quarter, we also had good news for the rating agencies with 2 upgrades and a positive outlook change. We're very pleased about this external recognition of our strategic progress and balanced business mix. Let's just look at the drivers of the sustained revenue growth on Slide 2. Over the past 2 years, we have seen steady growth in first half revenues. We see ourselves well on track to deliver above the midpoint of our full year guidance of EUR 28 million to EUR 29 billion. We achieved this despite significant shifts in the operational environment over the past 24 months, as a strong post-COVID recovery in 2021 gave way to inflationary headwinds and economic uncertainties driven by the war in Ukraine.

第二季度，我們還為評級機構帶來了好消息，評級機構進行了兩次升級，並且展望發生了積極的變化。我們對外部對我們戰略進展和平衡業務組合的認可感到非常高興。讓我們看看幻燈片2中收入持續增長的驅動因素。在過去的兩年裡，我們看到上半年收入穩步增長。我們認為，我們有望實現全年目標 2800 萬至 290 億歐元的中值以上。儘管過去 24 個月運營環境發生了重大變化，但我們還是實現了這一目標，因為 2021 年新冠疫情后的強勁復甦被烏克蘭戰爭引發的通脹逆風和經濟不確定性所取代。

We maintained our growth trajectory in a changing environment and delivered strong revenue growth in our corporate and private banks, which took full advantage of rising interest rates and new client mandates. We expect the momentum to continue into the second half of 2023. This, together with a stable contribution from the Investment Bank financing business more than offset normalizing conditions in our more market-sensitive businesses.

我們在不斷變化的環境中保持了增長軌跡，並充分利用了利率上升和新客戶授權，實現了公司和私人銀行的強勁收入增長。我們預計這一勢頭將持續到 2023 年下半年。這一勢頭，加上投資銀行融資業務的穩定貢獻，足以抵消我們對市場更為敏感的業務的正常化狀況。

As we anticipate some normalization of interest rates, we aim to further compound our earnings mix. We are making investments in capital-light businesses, including origination and advisory and wealth management, together with technology-enabled high-return businesses in the Corporate Bank. Finally, across all businesses, we continue to make progress towards our sustainability targets. We added ESG financing and investment volumes of EUR 17 billion in the second quarter, bringing our cumulative total to EUR 254 billion since January 2020.

由於我們預計利率會正常化，因此我們的目標是進一步複合我們的盈利組合。我們正在投資輕資本業務，包括發起、諮詢和財富管理，以及企業銀行中技術驅動的高回報業務。最後，在所有業務中，我們繼續在實現可持續發展目標方面取得進展。第二季度我們增加了 170 億歐元的 ESG 融資和投資額，使自 2020 年 1 月以來的累計總額達到 2540 億歐元。

Before we move to some balance sheet related topics, let's just turn to provision for credit losses on Slide 3. Provision for credit losses in the second quarter was EUR 401 million, equivalent to 33 basis points of average loans, slightly up compared to the previous quarter reflecting the broader impact of the macro environment. Stages 1 and 2 provisions were EUR 63 million, driven by portfolio and rating movements, especially in the investment bank. Stage 3 provisions of EUR 338 million were broadly spread across our businesses and slightly lower compared to the previous quarter, partly reflecting a nonrecurrence of provisions relating to a small number of idiosyncratic events in the International Private Bank.

在我們討論一些與資產負債表相關的話題之前，我們先來看看幻燈片3 上的信用損失撥備。第二季度的信用損失撥備為4.01 億歐元，相當於平均貸款的33 個基點，比上一季度略有上升該季度反映了宏觀環境的更廣泛影響。第一階段和第二階段的準備金為 6300 萬歐元，受到投資組合和評級變動（尤其是投資銀行領域）的推動。 3.38 億歐元的第三階段撥備廣泛分佈在我們的業務中，與上一季度相比略有下降，部分反映了與國際私人銀行少數特殊事件相關的撥備不再重複發生。

Overall, there are currently no signs of persistent deterioration in the environment. However, we observed a softening in some German mid-cap sectors, including automotive and continued weakness in commercial real estate. For the full year, we continue to expect provisions to land within our guidance range of 25 to 30 basis points of average loans, albeit at the upper end of that range. Looking at the first six months, provisions were in line with our expectations if we exclude the nonrecurring events in the international private bank we had in the first quarter. For the second half of the year, we expect the usual quarterly run rate of about EUR 150 million in the private bank, while provisions in the Corporate Bank and Investment Bank taken together are expected to lay in line with the first half of the year.

總體而言，目前沒有環境持續惡化的跡象。然而，我們觀察到德國一些中型股行業的疲軟，包括汽車和商業房地產的持續疲軟。就全年而言，我們繼續預計準備金將落在平均貸款 25 至 30 個基點的指導範圍內，儘管處於該範圍的上限。看看前六個月，如果我們排除第一季度國際私人銀行的非經常性事件，撥備符合我們的預期。下半年，我們預計私人銀行的季度運營率通常約為 1.5 億歐元，而企業銀行和投資銀行的撥備總額預計將與上半年持平。

Slide 4 provides further details on the development in our loan and deposit books over the quarter. All figures in the commentary are adjusted for FX effects. Loans have declined by EUR 5 billion in the quarter. [The development] in the corporate bank was the main driver of the changes at group level. Loans in the corporate bank have decreased by EUR 5 billion due to reduced client demand and continued balance sheet discipline in anticipation of regulatory RWA inflation. Profitability measures executed already in the fourth quarter of 2022 contribute further to the 9% year-on-year decline in the corporate bank loan book.

幻燈片 4 提供了有關本季度貸款和存款賬簿發展的更多詳細信息。評論中的所有數字均根據FX效果進行了調整。本季度貸款減少了 50 億歐元。公司銀行的[發展]是集團層面變革的主要推動力。由於客戶需求減少以及監管 RWA 通脹的持續資產負債表紀律，公司銀行的貸款減少了 50 億歐元。 2022 年第四季度已執行的盈利措施進一步導致企業銀行貸款同比下降 9%。

Loan growth for the Private Bank and Investment Bank has been flat during the quarter, driven by low client demand across products. For the remainder of the year, we expect the muted trend to continue. Deposits, client engagement and sentiment have improved in the second quarter, resulting in a moderate increase of EUR 2 billion. Corporate bank deposits have shown a stable to improving trend with 2 billion growth following enhanced client activity and normalization in pricing competition. Deposits in the private bank remained essentially flat. Inflows from our savings campaign of around EUR 3 billion have largely been offset by continued inflationary pressure, ongoing pricing competition and an accounting classification change of EUR 2 billion.

由於客戶對產品的需求較低，本季度私人銀行和投資銀行的貸款增長持平。在今年剩餘時間裡，我們預計這種溫和的趨勢將持續下去。第二季度存款、客戶參與度和情緒均有所改善，適度增加了 20 億歐元。隨著客戶活躍度的增強和定價競爭的常態化，企業銀行存款呈現出穩定向好的趨勢，增長了20億。私人銀行存款基本持平。我們的儲蓄活動帶來的約 30 億歐元的流入大部分被持續的通脹壓力、持續的定價競爭和 20 億歐元的會計分類變化所抵消。

In the second half of the year, we expect modest deposit growth, taking us towards a EUR 600 billion level. Moving to the net interest margin development on Slide 5. Net interest margin in the Private Bank and Core Bank remained strong in the second quarter as deposit betas remained below our model assumptions in both divisions. We expect margins to begin to decline from this point, but that the tailwind from interest rates for 2023 will be larger than the EUR 900 million we guided at the start of the year.

今年下半年，我們預計存款將溫和增長，達到 6000 億歐元的水平。轉到幻燈片 5 上的淨息差發展情況。私人銀行和核心銀行的淨息差在第二季度仍然強勁，因為這兩個部門的存款貝塔值仍然低於我們的模型假設。我們預計利潤率將從此時開始下降，但 2023 年利率的推動力將大於我們年初指導的 9 億歐元。

Net interest margin at the group level increased to 151 basis points as the accounting effects we noticed in the first quarter partially reversed. As we noted at the time, these effects are held in our Corporate and Other division and are offset in noninterest revenues and do not affect the group's total revenues. Average interest-earning assets declined quarter-on-quarter, driven by lower average cash balances.

由於我們在第一季度注意到的會計影響部分逆轉，集團層面的淨息差增加至 151 個基點。正如我們當時指出的那樣，這些影響由我們的公司和其他部門承擔，並在非利息收入中抵消，不會影響集團的總收入。由於平均現金餘額下降，平均生息資產環比下降。

Moving to Slide 6, highlighting the development of our key liquidity metrics. The liquidity coverage ratio at quarter end decreased to 137%. This reflects a gradual normalization for the liquidity levels seen over the last 2 quarters and is in line with our guidance to return to a target LCR of about 130% over time. Throughout the quarter, we maintained stable liquidity position with a daily average LCR at 134%. We maintained a robust level of available high-quality liquidity reserves with the vast majority of total HQLA held in cash or Level 1 securities. The movement in the LCR surface above the regulatory minimum to EUR 55 billion was driven by TLTRO repayments as well as a small increase in net cash outflows. In the second half of the year, we will continue to manage the LCR structurally towards our target level. Net stable funding ratio at quarter end remained broadly flat at 119% versus the prior period within our targeted range. This represents a surplus of about EUR 97 billion above the regulatory requirement.

轉向幻燈片 6，重點介紹我們關鍵流動性指標的發展。季末流動性覆蓋率下降至137%。這反映了過去兩個季度流動性水平逐漸正常化，並且符合我們隨著時間的推移恢復到約 130% 目標 LCR 的指導。整個季度，我們保持穩定的流動性頭寸，日均LCR為134%。我們保持了強勁的可用優質流動性儲備水平，其中絕大多數優質流動性資產以現金或一級證券持有。 LCR 表面高於監管最低值至 550 億歐元的原因是 TLTRO 償還以及淨現金流出小幅增加。下半年，我們將繼續對LCR進行結構性管理，以實現我們的目標水平。季度末淨穩定資金比率與上一期相比基本持平，為 119%，處於我們的目標範圍內。這比監管要求多出約 970 億歐元的盈餘。

Available longer-term stable funding sources for the bank remain well diversified and are supported by a robust domestic deposit franchise, which continues contributing about 2/3 of the group's stable funding sources. We aim to maintain this funding mix over the course of 2023 with manageable TLTRO repayments of about EUR 4 billion per quarter. Repayments of about EUR 3 billion of TLTRO during the quarter brings our cumulative payments to about EUR 23 billion.

該銀行可用的長期穩定資金來源仍然多元化，並得到強大的國內存款業務的支持，該業務繼續貢獻該集團約2/3的穩定資金來源。我們的目標是在 2023 年期間維持這種融資組合，每季度可管理的 TLTRO 還款額約為 40 億歐元。本季度償還約 30 億歐元的 TLTRO，使我們的累計付款達到約 230 億歐元。

Turning to capital on Slide 7. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio was 13.8% at the end of the second quarter, 15 basis points above the prior period. Organic capital generation contributed 16 basis points to the increase, reflecting our strong net income, which was offset mainly by higher regulatory deductions for common equity dividends and AT1 coupons. Risk-weighted assets remained broadly flat this quarter at EUR 359 billion. We saw an increase in credit risk RWA due to our higher share of equity investments in guaranteed funds and asset management with growth in lending commitment offset by securitization.

轉向幻燈片 7 上的資本。第二季度末我們的普通股一級資本比率為 13.8%，比上一季度高 15 個基點。有機資本生成對增長貢獻了 16 個基點，反映出我們強勁的淨利潤，但主要被普通股股息和 AT1 息票的監管扣除額增加所抵消。本季度風險加權資產基本持平，為 3,590 億歐元。由於我們在擔保基金和資產管理方面的股權投資比例較高，而貸款承諾的增長被證券化所抵消，因此我們的信用風險 RWA 有所增加。

The decrease in market risk RWA was driven by a reduction in our quantitative multiplier add-on. Second half of the year, we expect approximately 70 basis points of headwinds from various items we have discussed with you before, notably impacts from model and methodology changes, share buybacks and the Numis acquisition.

市場風險 RWA 的下降是由於我們的量化乘數附加值的減少所致。今年下半年，我們預計我們之前與您討論過的各種項目將帶來大約 70 個基點的阻力，特別是模型和方法變化、股票回購和 Numis 收購的影響。

Capital ratios remain well above regulatory requirements, as shown on Slide 8. The CET1 MDA buffer now stands at 262 basis points or EUR 9 billion of CET1 capital. This increase of 11 basis points compared to the prior quarter reflects a 15 basis points higher CET1 capital ratio, which was partially offset by a 3 basis points impact from higher countercyclical capital buffer settings in the Netherlands, Ireland, France and Sweden. A buffer to the total capital requirement remained materially unchanged over the quarter and now stands at 278 basis points.

資本比率仍遠高於監管要求，如幻燈片 8 所示。CET1 MDA 緩衝目前為 262 個基點，即 90 億歐元的 CET1 資本。與上一季度相比增加11 個基點反映了CET1 資本比率提高了15 個基點，但荷蘭、愛爾蘭、法國和瑞典較高的反週期資本緩衝設置帶來的3 個基點的影響部分抵消了這一影響。本季度總資本要求的緩衝實質上保持不變，目前為 278 個基點。

Moving to Slide 9. Our leverage ratio was 4.7% at the end of the second quarter, 4 basis points up versus the prior quarter on our strong organic capital generation. The impact from FX adjusted increase in leverage exposure was not material. We continue to operate with a significant loss-absorbing capacity well above all our requirements as shown on Slide 10. The MREL surface has our most binding constraint decreased by EUR 7 billion to EUR 12 billion over the quarter. This includes a reduction of EUR 4 billion due to the higher MREL requirement and general prior commissions, becoming subject to deduction as mentioned in our first quarter 2023 fixed income investor call.

轉到幻燈片 9。第二季度末，我們的槓桿率為 4.7%，比上一季度上升 4 個基點，這得益於我們強勁的有機資本生成能力。外匯調整后杠桿敞口增加的影響並不重大。我們繼續以遠高於我們所有要求的顯著損失吸收能力進行運營，如幻燈片 10 所示。MREL 表面對我們最具約束力的約束在本季度減少了 70 億歐元至 120 億歐元。這包括由於更高的 MREL 要求和一般先前佣金而減少 40 億歐元，正如我們在 2023 年第一季度固定收益投資者電話會議中提到的那樣，需要扣除。

We have consciously reduced our buffer to improve balance sheet efficiency. Actions taken include the successful execution of a EUR 1 billion senior nonpreferred tender offer in May 2023 and the decision to not replace EUR 2 billion of MREL eligible instruments falling below the 1-year maturity threshold with new issuances. Our loss absorbing capacity buffer continues to provide us with the flexibility to pause issuing new eligible liability instruments for approximately 1 year.

我們有意識地減少緩衝以提高資產負債表效率。採取的行動包括於 2023 年 5 月成功執行 10 億歐元的高級非優先要約收購，以及決定不以新發行的方式取代低於 1 年到期門檻的 20 億歐元 MREL 合格工具。我們的損失吸收能力緩衝繼續為我們提供暫停發行新的合格債務工具大約一年的靈活性。

Moving now to our issuance plan on Slide 11. (inaudible) guidance to issue EUR 12 million to EUR 15 billion to meet 2023 requirements. Year-to-date, we have already issued EUR 11 billion or roughly 80% of the midpoint of the full year target. Since the last call, we have been active in covered bonds, senior preferred and senior nonpreferred notes. We issued a EUR 1 billion Pfandbrief, EUR 500 million senior preferred and a $1.25 billion senior non-preferred note and were otherwise active in private placements and retail targeted issuances. Residual issuance activity for 2023 remains focused on covered bonds and senior preferred notes. Regarding the LIBOR transition, we have completed the migration of our U.S. dollar LIBOR exposure with the exception of 3 so-called tough legacy capital securities. For these notes, we have informed the bondholders about the full back provisions, which encompasses a dealer poll and if unsuccessful, usage of the last available fixing. The next upcoming resets occur in 2025 and 2027.

現在轉到幻燈片 11 上的發行計劃。（聽不清）指導發行 1200 萬至 150 億歐元以滿足 2023 年的要求。今年迄今為止，我們已經發行了 110 億歐元，約佔全年目標中值的 80%。自上次電話會議以來，我們一直活躍於擔保債券、高級優先票據和高級非優先票據。我們發行了 10 億歐元的 Pfandbrief、5 億歐元的高級優先票據和 12.5 億美元的高級非優先票據，並積極參與私募和零售定向發行。 2023 年的剩餘發行活動仍然集中在資產擔保債券和高級優先票據上。關於 LIBOR 過渡，我們已經完成了美元 LIBOR 敞口的遷移，但 3 種所謂的硬性遺留資本證券除外。對於這些票據，我們已向債券持有人通報了全額支持條款，其中包括經銷商民意調查，如果不成功，則使用最後可用的定價。下一次即將到來的重置發生在 2025 年和 2027 年。

Before going to your questions, let me conclude with a summary on Slide 12. First half revenues above EUR 15 billion, we believe that revenues above the midpoint of our guidance range of EUR 28 million to EUR 29 billion for the full year 2023 are achievable. Interest rate environment remains favorable, supporting strong revenues in PB and CB and the market now expects interest rates to remain higher for longer than early in the year. In addition to this, (inaudible) in our stable businesses remain below our model assumptions. Taken together, these effects will mean that the rate tailwind is materially above the EUR 900 million we had guided to you previously for 2023.

在回答大家的問題之前，讓我對幻燈片 12 進行總結。上半年收入超過 150 億歐元，我們相信 2023 年全年收入可以實現高於我們指導範圍 2800 萬至 290 億歐元的中點。利率環境仍然有利，支撐了 PB 和 CB 的強勁收入，市場現在預計利率將比今年年初保持在更高水平。除此之外，（聽不清）我們穩定的業務仍然低於我們的模型假設。總而言之，這些影響將意味著 2023 年利率順風將大大高於我們之前為您指引的 9 億歐元。

Adjusted costs for the full year 2023 are still expected to be essentially flat compared to 2022, benefiting from strict cost management, lower single resolution fund charges for the current year, as well as potential restitution payment from the National Resolution Fund. Provision for credit losses is now expected at the upper end of our guidance range of 25 to 30 basis points of average loans, reflecting the current macro backdrop and lower loan balances than initially anticipated. Our capital guidance is unchanged. Our second quarter CET1 ratio of 13.8% allows us to absorb roughly 70 basis points of headwinds in the second half, reflecting the impact from model changes, share buybacks and numerous acquisition.

受益於嚴格的成本管理、當年較低的單一決議基金費用以及國家決議基金的潛在賠償付款，預計 2023 年全年調整後成本仍將基本與 2022 年持平。目前預計信貸損失撥備處於我們指導範圍的上限，即平均貸款的 25 至 30 個基點，反映了當前的宏觀背景以及低於最初預期的貸款餘額。我們的資本指導不變。我們第二季度的 CET1 比率為 13.8%，使我們能夠在下半年吸收大約 70 個基點的逆風，反映了模型變化、股票回購和大量收購的影響。

We recognized the positive rating actions in the second quarter from S&P, Fitch and DBRS, which brings us closer to our peer group. As mentioned on the prior slide, we have completed 80% of our issuance plan for the year, and plan to issue primarily in more senior instruments during the remainder of the year. With that, let's just turn to your questions.

我們認可了標準普爾、惠譽和 DBRS 在第二季度採取的積極評級行動，這使我們與同行更加接近。正如上一張幻燈片所述，我們已經完成了今年發行計劃的 80%，併計劃在今年剩餘時間內主要發行更高級的工具。那麼，讓我們來回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And we have the first question from Lee Street with Citigroup.

我們有來自 Lee Street 和花旗集團的第一個問題。

I have 3 for you coming back to points you've mentioned. So -- on the rating entities, obviously, you've had some positive pricing actions, as you mentioned. Based on your latest discussions with them, and obviously, still on positive S&P -- do you think you've got scope for more upgrades or more positive activity from them over the coming -- for the remainder of this year? So that's the first question.

我有 3 點供您回顧一下您提到的要點。因此，正如您提到的，對於評級實體，顯然您已經採取了一些積極的定價行動。根據您與他們的最新討論，顯然，標準普爾指數仍然積極，您認為在今年剩餘時間內，您是否有空間進行更多升級或他們在未來採取更多積極活動？這是第一個問題。

Secondly, on the LCR, obviously, bringing it down -- down towards the target of 130. I guess, my question is, what is the right level for the LCR and how do you actually calibrate and -- is there any risk you need to have a buffer? That's my question there. And then finally, as it relates to the LIBOR and the H1 that you've essentially announced that coupons would fix if the dealer poll fail. Just -- have you had confirmation that's not an incentive to redeem how should we think about that being an incentive to redeem as obviously a fixed coupon and implies a credit spread that would move around as a function of what rate to do. That would be my 3 questions. Thank you.

其次，在 LCR 上，顯然，將其降低 - 降低到 130 的目標。我想，我的問題是，LCR 的正確水平是什麼以及您如何實際校準以及 - 您是否需要任何風險有緩衝嗎？這就是我的問題。最後，因為它與 LIBOR 和 H1 有關，您基本上已經宣布，如果交易商民意調查失敗，優惠券將得到修復。只是 - 您是否已確認這不是贖回的激勵措施，我們應該如何考慮將其視為贖回的激勵措施，因為顯然是固定優惠券，並且意味著信用利差將作為利率的函數而變化。這就是我的 3 個問題。謝謝。

Thanks, Lee, and I guess, welcome, everyone, for joining on a Friday afternoon for the last weekend in July. And so we'll also see if I can get through these questions relatively quickly, so we can break for the weekend. But -- starting with your questions, Lee, I guess, the first one around the rating agencies. So I'd say, we'd be very happy with the rating trajectory, I guess, since we embarked on our transformation strategy back in 2019. On the back of the profitability improvement, strict risk management, continued balance sheet strength. We've seen the rating agencies upgrade our ratings twice in recent times.

謝謝李，我想，歡迎大家在七月最後一個週末的周五下午加入。所以我們也會看看我是否能相對較快地解決這些問題，這樣我們就可以在周末休息了。但是——從你的問題開始，李，我想，這是有關評級機構的第一個問題。所以我想說，自從我們在 2019 年開始實施轉型戰略以來，我想我們對評級軌跡非常滿意。在盈利能力改善、嚴格的風險管理和資產負債表持續走強的背景下。我們已經看到評級機構最近兩次提升了我們的評級。

And in the second quarter, as you said, we made significant progress with 2 upgrades and a positive outlook change. I'd say we're working hard towards an upgrade with S&P. We feel our ratings with the other agencies are now sort of appropriately positioned for where we are right now. And regarding, I guess, the economic environment, we don't see pressure to our own ratings through sharp deterioration on a macroeconomic level could have implications for the banking sector as a whole.

正如您所說，在第二季度，我們通過兩次升級和積極的前景變化取得了重大進展。我想說，我們正在努力實現標準普爾的升級。我們認為我們對其他機構的評級現在已經適合我們目前的情況。我認為，就經濟環境而言，我們認為宏觀經濟水平急劇惡化對我們自身評級造成的壓力不會對整個銀行業產生影響。

Risk management continues to be a strength at Deutsche Bank and continues to be a focus across all the different risk types. And so we don't believe our ratings are going to be impacted to the downside. When it comes to LCR and look at the right level, good question. I think the -- how we think about it internally is -- starting point is our own internal stress testing and risk management frameworks. So obviously, we kind of know our own portfolios, our own historical outflow numbers. We know our clients, we know our products, we know our geographies. And so that whole stress testing framework that we have, essentially in the buffer we kind of we need to hold for those is kind of what really what informs the LCR. And so that's kind of where -- how we kind of -- how we think about it.

風險管理仍然是德意志銀行的優勢，並且仍然是所有不同風險類型的重點。因此，我們認為我們的評級不會受到下行影響。當談到 LCR 並查看正確的水平時，這是個好問題。我認為——我們內部的思考方式是——起點是我們自己的內部壓力測試和風險管理框架。顯然，我們知道我們自己的投資組合，我們自己的歷史流出數據。我們了解我們的客戶，我們了解我們的產品，我們了解我們的地理位置。因此，我們擁有的整個壓力測試框架，本質上是我們需要保留的緩衝區，這才是 LCR 的真正信息。這就是我們的想法。

And then we kind of think a little bit about our peers as well as sort of just to sort of level set a little bit. (inaudible) U.S. banks typically have lower LCRs, sort of the 110, 115 kind of area, some European banks a little bit higher, but given our business mix, I think we're pretty comfortable with 130 being the right target over time.

然後我們會稍微考慮一下我們的同行，並稍微設定一些水平。 （聽不清）美國銀行的LCR 通常較低，約為110、115 之類的區域，一些歐洲銀行的LCR 稍高一些，但考慮到我們的業務組合，我認為隨著時間的推移，我們對130 成為正確目標感到非常滿意。

And I guess the last question, I guess, on the incentive to redeem on those securities. In our opinion, reliance on the last available fixing does not constitute an incentive to redeem, as this relates solely to the interest rate aspect of the coupon, whereas the spread over development reset rate remains as per issue dates. So in other words, we do have to bear in mind the credit component of the issuance. And we're not aware of any conflicting regulatory pronouncements in this regard and the recently published EBA monitoring report on own funds and MREL also do not suggest any concerns relying on existing fallback provisions. So -- so that's kind of how I'd respond to that question. So hopefully, that answers your question.

我想最後一個問題是關於贖回這些證券的動機。我們認為，對最後可用定價的依賴並不構成贖回的動機，因為這僅與息票的利率方面有關，而開發重置利率的利差仍與發行日期相同。換句話說，我們確實必須牢記發行的信用成分。我們不知道在這方面有任何相互衝突的監管聲明，最近發布的 EBA 對自有資金和 MREL 的監測報告也沒有暗示任何依賴現有後備條款的擔憂。所以——這就是我對這個問題的回應。希望這能回答你的問題。

Next question is from the line of Robert Smalley from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的羅伯特·斯莫利 (Robert Smalley)。

Thanks for doing the call. Thanks for doing it at least in our morning, but I'll be brief so you can get out and enjoy the weekend. Three quick questions. First, on Slide 18, you have an increase in provision for credit losses, you pushed it up your expectations to the upper end of the range. It looks like it's primarily in this quarter coming from the corporate bank and the investment bank. Could you put some detail on that? And is that where you see the provisioning continuing to increase or stay at these levels through the end of the year. Seems like it's come down in the private bank, so any color there would be appreciated.

感謝您撥打電話。感謝您至少在我們早上這樣做，但我會簡短地說，以便您可以出去享受週末。三個簡單的問題。首先，在幻燈片 18 上，您增加了信用損失準備金，您將其預期提高到了範圍的上限。看起來本季度的資金主要來自企業銀行和投資銀行。你能詳細說明一下嗎？到今年年底，您會看到供應量繼續增加或保持在這些水平。看起來好像是私人銀行的，所以任何顏色都會受到讚賞。

Secondly, just on Germany, IFO (inaudible) lots of indicators of sentiment have grown very soft around the economy. I know that you run a global business, but at the same time, could you talk about the impact of that on the balance sheet and the income statement. And then third, just in general, could you talk about capital generation? How it came out this quarter, how you're seeing it for the rest of the year? And what you think the right run rate is for Deutsche Bank.

其次，就德國而言，IFO（聽不清）許多經濟情緒指標都變得非常疲軟。我知道您經營一家全球性企業，但同時您能否談談這對資產負債表和損益表的影響。第三，總的來說，您能談談資本生成嗎？本季度的情況如何，您對今年剩餘時間的情況有何看法？您認為德意志銀行的正確運行利率是多少。

Robert, it's James. I'll start on the first 2, and Richard may want to add on the third. So you're right, there was a shift in the quarter. So it was a normalization for us of PB closer to what we'd expect to be a run rate sort of in and around 150 per quarter. And as we look at the forward-looking credit indicators, that seems like a pretty solid view for the back half of the year. And our guidance for the rest of the year, which would be around 350 per quarter would suggest that the CB and IB taken together are more or less in line with Q2. Now CB was a little bit elevated relative to what we'd expect in sort of a general run rate to be. And that was driven by what we mentioned was some softness in mid-caps in Germany.

羅伯特，是詹姆斯。我將從前兩個開始，理查德可能想補充第三個。所以你是對的，本季度發生了變化。因此，這對我們來說是 PB 的正常化，更接近我們預期的每季度 150 左右的運行率。當我們審視前瞻性信貸指標時，這似乎是今年下半年的一個相當可靠的觀點。我們對今年剩餘時間的指導，即每季度 350 左右，表明 CB 和 IB 合計或多或少與第二季度一致。現在，CB 相對於我們預期的總體運行率略有升高。這是由我們提到的德國中型股的疲軟推動的。

So between the 2 of them, we'd expect it to be more or less where it was perhaps a little bit better in Q3 and Q4 than it was in Q2. I think it's important to note that we're not seeing a broad-based deterioration in our book or based on the leading indicators, but we're obviously traveling at a level higher than where we've been in the recent past. And again, that all feeds into our guidance of in and around 30 basis points for the year. There has been obviously some data from Germany around the economy that we've been in a relatively speaking, a stagnant economy now for 3 quarters. If I step back to where we were last year, that isn't bad given some of the challenges that Germany faced a year ago around the energy market situation.

因此，在兩者之間，我們預計第三季度和第四季度的情況或多或少會比第二季度好一些。我認為重要的是要注意，我們的賬簿或領先指標沒有看到廣泛的惡化，但我們的行進水平顯然高於最近的水平。再說一遍，所有這些都納入了我們今年 30 個基點左右的指引。顯然，德國的一些經濟數據表明，相對而言，我們的經濟已經連續三個季度陷入停滯。如果我回到去年的情況，考慮到德國一年前在能源市場形勢方面面臨的一些挑戰，這還不錯。

What we would say is that -- I think it's sort of sectoral driven. There clearly are areas of the German economy that are recessionary. There are others that are doing a little bit better. And at least for now, we see Germany muddling through. Our house view is about 0.5 percentage point of growth for the year and that would represent really the balance of parts of the economies that are growing and those that are shrinking. We do see order books, talking to clients, weakening in some areas. But again, we see that offset in some instance by exports and investment-driven growth and in other areas like the service sector recovery still from COVID. So short version of that is mixed picture.

我們想說的是——我認為這是部門驅動的。德國經濟的某些領域顯然已經陷入衰退。還有其他人做得更好一些。至少目前，我們看到德國正在渡過難關。我們的內部觀點是今年的增長率約為 0.5 個百分點，這實際上代表了增長的經濟體和萎縮的經濟體之間的平衡。我們確實看到訂單簿、與客戶的交談在某些領域有所減弱。但我們再次看到，在某些情況下，出口和投資驅動的增長以及其他領域（例如服務業仍從新冠疫情中復蘇）抵消了這種影響。這是一個混合圖片的簡短版本。

On capital generation, you've seen us step into, call it, 25 basis points per quarter sort of ballpark. I don't want to give sort of forward-looking view on earnings necessarily, but that the earnings tends to translate right now into that kind of ballpark or a little bit better. And we think that is teeing us up well for the capital build around some of the items we've called out and also the capital distribution strategy that we've laid out, I think, very clearly for investors. Richard, anything to add?

在資本生成方面，您已經看到我們步入了每季度 25 個基點的水平。我不想對盈利給出某種前瞻性的看法，但盈利現在往往會轉化為這種大致水平或更好一點。我們認為，這為我們圍繞我們提出的一些項目進行資本建設以及我們為投資者制定的資本分配策略做好了良好的準備。我認為，這對投資者來說非常明確。理查德，有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think that's right. I think we -- I guess on the capital side, CET1 ratio at 13.8 at the end of Q2, sort of, call it, 70 basis points of, I guess, headwinds, if you like, from models, share repurchases, the Numis acquisition between now and the end of the year. That's a -- and then you towing the earnings generation and the business growth is kind of trade-offs. We have to think about kind of from CET1 ratio perspective. We're still pretty comfortable with being at least above 200 basis points to our NDA by the end of the year.

我認為這是對的。我認為我們——我想在資本方面，第二季度末的 CET1 比率為 13.8，我想，如果你願意的話，可以稱之為逆風 70 個基點，來自模型、股票回購、Numis從現在到年底的收購。這是一種——然後你拖曳盈利創造和業務增長是一種權衡。我們必須從 CET1 比率的角度來考慮。我們仍然對今年年底 NDA 至少高於 200 個基點感到滿意。

The next question is from the line of Daniel David from Autonomous.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Daniel David。

I just have 2. Just interested if you can provide a guide for the impact of the ECB's decision on minimum reserves yesterday, any detail would be great. And the second one is just a bit more broadly. Just with regard to what's happening in the U.S. So I guess I think that U.S. banks generally seem to be well capitalized and is the Fed is saying that you now need 20% more capital under Basel IV. I realize it doesn't have any impact on yourselves, but do you worry that investors and maybe counterparties think that European banks now need hold a bit more capital? And I realize you talked about 70 basis points increase in requirements. But I guess I'm thinking about in addition to that, any thoughts would be welcome.

我只有 2。只是感興趣，如果您能提供有關昨天歐洲央行決定對最低準備金的影響的指南，任何細節都會很好。第二個更廣泛一些。就美國正在發生的事情而言，我想我認為美國銀行總體上資本充足，美聯儲是否表示根據巴塞爾 IV 協議，現在需要增加 20% 的資本。我知道這對你們自己沒有任何影響，但您是否擔心投資者甚至交易對手認為歐洲銀行現在需要持有更多資本？我知道您談到了要求增加 70 個基點。但我想除此之外我正在考慮，任何想法都會受到歡迎。

So I guess I'll start on the ECB announcement yesterday. So I guess sort of disappointed, but with what they came out with. I guess we don't necessarily see it particularly helpful to change a bank's risk profile in this unexpected kind of way. I think in terms of just back-of-envelope calculations, in terms of our minimum reserve requirement holdings, and apply 350, 375 basis point impact then guess just over EUR 200 million per annum, it's going to probably be the impact on those to us. So clearly not insignificant. And then in terms of kind of implications, it's pretty bit too early to sort of take form a view on that, but I would note that other central banks I guess take a different approach regarding remuneration of deposits and how they think about the effect on the monetary transmission mechanism.

所以我想我將從昨天的歐洲央行公告開始。所以我想有點失望，但對他們的成果。我想我們不一定認為以這種意想不到的方式改變銀行的風險狀況特別有幫助。我認為，就粗略計算而言，就我們的最低準備金要求持有量而言，並應用 350、375 個基點的影響，然後猜測每年略高於 2 億歐元，這可能會對那些我們。所以顯然不是微不足道的。然後就影響而言，現在對此形成看法還為時過早，但我想指出，我認為其他央行在存款報酬以及他們如何看待對存款的影響方面採取了不同的方法。貨幣傳導機制。

On the U.S. capital situation, look, the NPR came out yesterday. So early days to react. I guess my own view is Europe should continue to focus on a capital regime that makes sense for the European economy. I think the work that's gone on in Brussels has been through good work that represents a workable solution for the industry and is reflective of some of the characteristics of the European economy and European banking system that the United States will go down a different path. And perhaps, I mean, on some levels, the more stringent application of the Basel III final framework is obviously a decision the United States can make and reflects the current environment in the U.S.

關於美國首都的情況，你看，NPR昨天就出來了。這麼早就反應過來了。我想我自己的觀點是歐洲應該繼續關注對歐洲經濟有意義的資本製度。我認為布魯塞爾正在進行的工作非常出色，代表了該行業可行的解決方案，並反映了歐洲經濟和歐洲銀行體系的一些特徵，美國將走上一條不同的道路。我的意思是，也許在某些層面上，更嚴格地應用巴塞爾協議III最終框架顯然是美國可以做出的決定，反映了美國當前的環境。

I don't know that the comparison of capital between the 2 systems is as easy to do as it appears on the surface. So I wouldn't just conclude that if the U.S. G-SIBs have to go up by whatever it was 16% in the QIS then that would put them 16% above the Europeans on a like-for-like basis. For one thing where we've been raising the capital in Europe based on TRIM, based on the EBA guidelines and now based on the expectation for Basel III implementation here in Europe.

我不知道兩個系統之間的資本比較是否像表面上看起來那麼容易。因此，我不會簡單地得出這樣的結論：如果美國的 G-SIB 必須在 QIS 中上升 16%，那麼它們在同類基礎上將比歐洲高出 16%。一方面，我們一直在歐洲根據 TRIM、EBA 指導方針以及現在對歐洲實施巴塞爾協議 III 的預期籌集資金。

For another, there are some elements of the capital regime in Europe that in my judgment are more stringent in the United States, and that's particularly true, I think, on deductions from the numerator and in some cases, interpretation of RWA, so I would not just take the view that the -- if you like one upmanship on the 2 sides of the Atlantic is the appropriate response. I think, first of all, each side needs to do what makes sense for their marketplace. And before you get to conclusions like that, you really have to do an apples-to-apples comparison between capitalization of banks on both sides.

另一方面，根據我的判斷，歐洲資本製度的某些要素在美國更為嚴格，我認為，在分子的扣除以及在某些情況下對 RWA 的解釋方面尤其如此，所以我會不只是認為— —如果你喜歡大西洋兩岸的一種高人一等的態度是適當的回應。我認為，首先，雙方都需要做對自己市場有意義的事情。在得出這樣的結論之前，你確實必須對雙方銀行的資本規模進行同類比較。

The next question is from the line of (inaudible) from Point72.

下一個問題來自 Point72（聽不清）。

Two questions, if I may. Coming back to your point about CRE and German midcaps softening. Would it be possible to have some data points around Stage 2 or cost of risk for German midcaps to get a sense of what softening means on the ground, so to speak? And secondly, is it possible to know or to understand why you think it's just a softening and more -- not an outright deterioration. So on Wednesday, Christian Sewing mentioned that German midcaps were much better shape from a liquidity standpoint. Could you give us some other pointers to -- basically to understand better why it's just a softening and not an outright deterioration? .

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。回到你關於商業地產和德國中型股疲軟的觀點。可以說，是否有可能獲得有關第二階段或德國中型股風險成本的一些數據點，以了解經濟疲軟意味著什麼？其次，是否有可能知道或理解為什麼你認為這只是一種軟化，而不是徹底惡化。因此，週三，Christian Sewing 提到，從流動性的角度來看，德國中型股的狀況要好得多。您能否給我們一些其他的指導——基本上是為了更好地理解為什麼它只是軟化而不是徹底惡化？ 。

Yes, hard from the -- hard to go too far, [Stephan], beyond the disclosure. When we're building the reserves, it's especially obviously in Stage 3, it's individual reserves for individual events. And then in Stage 2 on ratings and Stage 2 triggers. I would say that there was a handful of events in the quarter in -- particularly in the corporate bank that showed us it was more than we would normally see, sort of 5, 6 events. And there wasn't necessarily a pattern to those events, although we call that automotive as an area where we are seeing some more weakness. And again, that's why we wouldn't -- we don't see it as pervasive. The Stage 2 is just -- is really reflective of ratings changes. So as you see more strains in the economy, strains in a supply chain like in automotive, you see that affecting certain players and then reflected in our ratings, doesn't necessarily mean that there's a wave of defaults coming. So that's why we've used the word softening rather than a more dramatic language. Hope that helps give you a little bit of color about how we're thinking of it.

是的，很難——很難走得太遠，[斯蒂芬]，超出了披露範圍。當我們建立預備隊時，在第三階段尤其明顯，它是針對個別賽事的個人預備隊。然後是第二階段的收視率和第二階段的觸發因素。我想說的是，本季度發生了一些事件，特別是在企業銀行，這表明我們發生的事件比我們通常看到的要多，大約有 5、6 起事件。這些事件不一定有某種模式，儘管我們稱汽車為我們看到更多弱點的領域。再說一次，這就是我們不會這樣做的原因——我們不認為它是普遍存在的。第二階段確實反映了收視率的變化。因此，當您看到經濟中出現更多壓力，汽車等供應鏈中的壓力時，您會發現影響某些參與者並反映在我們的評級中，並不一定意味著將會出現一波違約潮。這就是為什麼我們使用“軟化”這個詞而不是更戲劇化的語言。希望這有助於讓您了解我們的想法。

(Operator Instructions) The next question is from the line of Andrew Lim from SocGen.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自法國興業銀行 (SocGen) 的 Andrew Lim。

Apologies for gatecrashing the fixed income call. So the first question, I think, James, you said that you'd be able to disclose the estimated impact on NII from the ECB's decision yesterday not to pay interest on bank reserves. So I don't know if you can outline that. And then secondly, I think earlier today when we talked about capital, you talked about the Basel III impact to come for Deutsche Bank and then separately, the output floor impact -- and then you talked about a potential EUR 15 billion to EUR 20 billion benefit. I didn't quite catch the detail of that. And I thought in my mind it was related to the litigation, but perhaps I might be mistaken. Perhaps you could talk about that in more detail as well, please.

為破壞固定收益電話會議而道歉。所以第一個問題，詹姆斯，你說過你可以披露歐洲央行昨天決定不支付銀行準備金利息對國家信息基礎設施的估計影響。所以我不知道你是否可以概述一下。其次，我認為今天早些時候，當我們談論資本時，您談到了巴塞爾協議 III 對德意志銀行的影響，然後分別談到了產出下限的影響，然後您談到了潛在的 150 億至 200 億歐元益處。我不太明白其中的細節。我心裡想這和訴訟有關，但也許我錯了。也許您也可以更詳細地談談這個問題。

Sure. Thanks, Andrew, and welcome, don't worry about gatecrashing. So on the -- so for the -- on the reserve remuneration, the number that Christian -- that Richard cited a little over 200 million on a per annum basis based on our current reserve level is sort of, call it, 5.5 multiplied by the 3.75 (inaudible) billion at 3 and 3 quarters would get you there, which means in the back end of the year, we would think it's sort of, call it, 60 million for the last 4 months of the year.

當然。謝謝，安德魯，歡迎，不用擔心撞門。因此，就準備金薪酬而言，理查德引用的克里斯蒂安根據我們目前的準備金水平每年略多於 2 億的數字，可以稱之為 5.5 乘以第3 個和第3 個季度的3.75 億（聽不清）就可以實現這一目標，這意味著到今年年底，我們認為今年最後4 個月的收入將達到6000 萬。

As Richard mentioned, we're disappointed by that result on a number of levels. One is the sort of cost transfer of monetary policy, again to the banking industry as it was for the 8 years of negative rates. As Richard mentioned, it's a sudden change in the risk modeling for interest rate risk in the banking book purposes of that part of our liability stack or asset stack in that case. And it also, I would say we don't see a monetary policy benefit or an obvious argument from a monetary policy perspective. So we're disappointed and somewhat surprised by the decision.

正如理查德所提到的，我們對這個結果在很多層面上都感到失望。一是貨幣政策的成本轉移，再次轉移到銀行業，就像八年的負利率一樣。正如理查德所提到的，在這種情況下，我們負債堆棧或資產堆棧的那部分銀行賬戶中的利率風險風險模型發生了突然的變化。而且，我想說，從貨幣政策的角度來看，我們沒有看到貨幣政策的好處或明顯的論點。所以我們對這個決定感到失望和有些驚訝。

On Basel III, we've got sort of moving parts, but our most recent guidance, I think, was EUR 25 billion to EUR 30 billion of increment on January 1, 2025. And that probably still holds. It moves around actually only because with -- or not only, but the principal movement in our forecast has to do with op risk and which is largely driven by revenues, but assume the high end of that range. As we mentioned in April, we've been working to offset actually sort of, I guess, related but also to support our capital-light sort of shift in the business model, identify offsets of EUR 15 billion to EUR 20 billion over the same period of time really to the end of '25. And that's a variety of different measures. Some of it's just optimization in the detail of our calculations.

在巴塞爾協議 III 上，我們有一些變化，但我認為我們最近的指導是 2025 年 1 月 1 日增加 250 億歐元至 300 億歐元。這可能仍然有效。實際上，它的變動只是因為——或者不僅如此，但我們預測中的主要變動與操作風險有關，而操作風險很大程度上是由收入驅動的，但假設該範圍的高端。正如我們在 4 月份提到的，我們一直在努力抵消，我想，這實際上是相關的，但也是為了支持我們輕資本的商業模式轉變，確定 150 億至 200 億歐元的抵消額時間確實到了25年底。這是各種不同的措施。其中一些只是我們計算細節的優化。

Some of it is a balance sheet movements in the client business, notably less mortgage originations than in the past and some reductions in trade finance lending that is sub hurdle. So sort of more disciplined balance sheet extension. And then also building on the securitization programs that we have going further into securitizing risk from the balance sheet. So a number of initiatives of that nature that add up to that EUR 15 billion to EUR 20 billion.

其中一些是客戶業務的資產負債表變動，特別是抵押貸款發放量比過去減少，以及貿易融資貸款的一些減少，這是次要障礙。這是一種更加嚴格的資產負債表擴展。然後，在證券化計劃的基礎上，我們進一步將資產負債表中的風險證券化。此類性質的多項舉措總計達 150 億至 200 億歐元。

Sorry, just to complete the output floor. As we talked about on Wednesday and we sort of went back and looked to make sure that our guidance was the same, we would think about EUR 30 billion of a day 1 impact in -- of the output floor in '29 when it becomes biting the 72.5. And we'd initially guided around 10% of the then RWA when we put out that guidance was about our RWA was about 320. So that all sort of aligns with that hasn't changed meaningfully, although that's a number that is really pre-mitigation. And we've been focused on the implementation of this first phase of Basel III final framework, so once that's behind us and we get into the '25 to '29 period, obviously, we'd look more carefully at ways in which we can offset some of the impact of the output for -- and I'm sorry, just to correct myself, it's 2030 is the implementation.

抱歉，只是為了完成輸出樓層。正如我們週三談到的那樣，我們回過頭來確保我們的指導是相同的，我們會考慮 29 年產出下限的第一天 300 億歐元的影響，當它變得咬人時72.5。當我們發布關於我們的RWA 約為320 的指導時，我們最初指導了當時RWA 的10% 左右。因此，所有與此相一致的情況都沒有發生有意義的變化，儘管這是一個真正預先確定的數字。減輕。我們一直專注於巴塞爾協議 III 最終框架第一階段的實施，因此，一旦這一切過去，我們進入 25 至 29 年間，顯然，我們會更仔細地研究如何能夠抵消一些輸出的影響——我很抱歉，只是為了糾正自己，2030 年就是實施。

So far there are no further questions, and I hand back to Philip Teuchner for closing comments.

到目前為止，沒有其他問題了，我將把結論交還給 Philip Teuchner。

Thank you, operator. And just to finish up, thank you all for joining us today. You know where the IR team is, if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you soon again. Goodbye.

謝謝你，接線員。最後，感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您還有任何其他問題，您知道 IR 團隊在哪裡，我們期待很快再次與您交談。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect. Thank you very much for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束，您可以斷開連接了。非常感謝您的加入，祝您度過愉快的一天。再見。