Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Q3 2022 Fixed Income Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎並感謝您參加 2022 年第三季度固定收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Philip Teuchner. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給 Philip Teuchner。請繼續。

Good afternoon or good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. On the call, our new Group Treasurer, Richard Stewart, who will also remain in-charge of the Capital Release Unit will take us through some fixed income-specific topics. For the subsequent Q&A session, we also have our CFO, James von Moltke with us to answer your questions. The slides that accompany the topics are available for download from our website at db.com.

下午好或早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們。在電話會議上，我們的新集團財務主管理查德斯圖爾特（Richard Stewart）也將繼續負責資本釋放部門，他將帶領我們了解一些特定於固定收益的主題。對於隨後的問答環節，我們的首席財務官 James von Moltke 也將與我們一起回答您的問題。可從我們的網站 db.com 下載這些主題隨附的幻燈片。

After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions. Before we get started, I just want to remind you that the presentation may contain forward-looking statements, which may not develop as we currently expect. Therefore, please take note of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials. With that, let me hand over to James to introduce our new Treasurer.

演講結束後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。在我們開始之前，我只想提醒您，演示文稿可能包含前瞻性陳述，可能不會像我們目前預期的那樣發展。因此，請注意我們材料末尾的預防警告。有了這個，讓我交給詹姆斯介紹我們的新財務主管。

Thank you, Philip. It's with great pleasure that I want to introduce Richard Stewart, who took over the role as the Group Treasurer just a little over a month ago. Richard has gathered a breadth of experience in his more than 15 years with the bank, specifically from various risk roles and most recently as Head of the Capital Release Unit.

謝謝你，菲利普。我非常高興地介紹理查德·斯圖爾特，他在一個多月前接任集團財務主管一職。理查德在銀行工作超過 15 年，積累了廣泛的經驗，特別是從各種風險角色，最近擔任資本釋放部門負責人。

We believe that given his background and his contributions to the success of Deutsche Bank's transformation, Richard is highly qualified to succeed in his new role, a testament to the strong bench we have at Deutsche Bank. At the same time, we want to thank Dixit for his contributions during a critical time at the helm of the treasury team, and we wish him success in his new endeavors. Let me now hand over to Richard for his prepared remarks.

我們相信，鑑於他的背景以及他對德意志銀行成功轉型的貢獻，理查德完全有資格在他的新角色中取得成功，這證明了我們在德意志銀行擁有的強大替補席。同時，我們要感謝 Dixit 在掌管財務團隊的關鍵時刻所做出的貢獻，並祝愿他在新的努力中取得成功。現在讓我交給理查德準備發言。

Thank you, James, and welcome from me. It's a pleasure to be discussing our third quarter and 9-month results with you today. We continue to operate in a difficult and uncertain environment. We are mindful that the economic impacts of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis are yet to be fully seen. However, despite these challenges, we are progressing towards the completion of our transformation strategy.

謝謝你，詹姆斯，歡迎我。今天很高興與您討論我們第三季度和 9 個月的業績。我們繼續在困難和不確定的環境中運營。我們注意到烏克蘭戰爭和能源危機的經濟影響尚未完全顯現。然而，儘管存在這些挑戰，我們仍在朝著完成轉型戰略的方向前進。

Our efforts continue to be recognized by our stakeholders, as we saw the rating upgrade from Moody's earlier this month. We delivered our highest third quarter pretax profit since 2006 and our best 9-month results since 2011 as we work towards our 2022 financial goals.

我們的努力繼續得到利益相關者的認可，因為我們看到本月早些時候穆迪的評級上調。隨著我們努力實現 2022 年的財務目標，我們實現了自 2006 年以來最高的第三季度稅前利潤和自 2011 年以來最好的 9 個月業績。

Turning first to our performance. The positive trends we saw in the first half of the year continued in the third quarter. We delivered group revenues of EUR 20.9 billion in the first 9 months, an increase of 7% year-on-year. We also achieved revenue growth of 10% year-on-year across the 4 core businesses, driven by business volume growth, market share gains, improving interest rates and business investments.

首先談談我們的表現。我們在上半年看到的積極趨勢在第三季度繼續保持。我們在前 9 個月實現了 209 億歐元的集團收入，同比增長 7%。在業務量增長、市場份額增加、利率提高和業務投資的推動下，我們還實現了 4 項核心業務的收入同比增長 10%。

Our cost/income ratio was 73% for the first 9 months, down from 82% in the prior year period. In the first 9 months of 2022, we generated an 8% return on tangible equity, in line with our target and up from 4.8% in the first 9 months of 2021. We also proved our resilience. We maintained strong risk management in this challenging business environment. Provision for credit losses was higher but contained at 24 basis points of average loans. We are well capitalized. We finished the third quarter with a Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 13.3%.

前 9 個月我們的成本/收入比率為 73%，低於去年同期的 82%。 2022 年前 9 個月，我們的有形資產回報率為 8%，符合我們的目標，高於 2021 年前 9 個月的 4.8%。我們也證明了我們的韌性。在這個充滿挑戰的商業環境中，我們保持了強有力的風險管理。信貸損失準備金較高，但平均貸款為 24 個基點。我們資本充足。我們以 13.3% 的普通股一級資本比率結束了第三季度。

Now let me take you through the progress in our core businesses on Slide 2. All 4 core businesses delivered strong post-tax return on tangible equity in the first 9 months. In the Corporate Bank, revenues are up 20% year-to-date, thanks to further improving interest rates and higher fee income, supported by volume growth in loans and deposits. Return on tangible equity was 11%, a 4 percentage point increase year-on-year.

現在讓我在幻燈片 2 中帶您了解我們核心業務的進展情況。所有 4 項核心業務在前 9 個月都實現了強勁的有形資產稅後回報。企業銀行的收入今年迄今增長了 20%，這要歸功於利率的進一步提高和更高的手續費收入，以及貸款和存款數量增長的支持。有形股本回報率為11%，同比提高4個百分點。

In the Investment Bank, continued client engagement and strong risk management in our leading FIC franchise drove revenue growth of 8%, with particular strength in our macro trading businesses. The Investment Bank delivered a return on tangible equity of 12% despite lower origination and advisory activity as markets became more volatile.

在投資銀行，我們領先的 FIC 特許經營業務的持續客戶參與和強大的風險管理推動收入增長 8%，尤其是我們的宏觀交易業務。儘管市場變得更加動盪，投資銀行的有形股本回報率為 12%，但其發起和諮詢活動有所減少。

The Private Bank boosted its return on tangible equity to 9.5% by delivering a more than threefold increase in pretax profit in the first 9 months.

私人銀行在前 9 個月實現了超過三倍的稅前利潤增長，從而將其有形股本回報率提高至 9.5%。

Asset Management delivered revenue growth of 4% year-on-year, proving its resilience in a much tougher market environment.

資產管理的收入同比增長 4%，證明了其在更加嚴峻的市場環境中的韌性。

Let me now spend some time talking to our risk management and balance sheet strength on Slide 3. As always, we remain extremely focused on disciplined risk management. We constantly monitor and manage risks through our early identification systems, multiple downside analyses and stress tests and selective limit reductions. We proactively responded to the escalating war in Ukraine and the broader European energy crisis via focused hedging and selectively reducing risk appetite in our focused portfolios.

現在讓我花一些時間在幻燈片 3 上談談我們的風險管理和資產負債表實力。與往常一樣，我們仍然非常關注有紀律的風險管理。我們通過早期識別系統、多重下行分析和壓力測試以及選擇性限制降低來持續監控和管理風險。我們通過集中對沖和選擇性降低重點投資組合的風險偏好，積極應對烏克蘭戰爭升級和更廣泛的歐洲能源危機。

Our underwriting standards remain robust even as we continue to support clients through these challenging times. Our approach and our resilient balance sheet mean we have seen limited impacts on our risk profile so far. Our key risk and balance sheet metrics have remained stable since the fourth quarter of 2021 before the start of the war in Ukraine. Our provision for credit losses increased to 24 basis points of average loans for the first 9 months compared to 8 basis points for the same period last year.

即使我們在這些充滿挑戰的時期繼續為客戶提供支持，我們的承保標準仍然穩健。我們的方法和我們有彈性的資產負債表意味著到目前為止，我們對風險狀況的影響有限。自烏克蘭戰爭開始前的 2021 年第四季度以來，我們的主要風險和資產負債表指標一直保持穩定。前 9 個月我們的信用損失準備金增加至平均貸款的 24 個基點，而去年同期為 8 個基點。

This is the normalization we expected following a less benign, macroeconomic environment compared to the previous year. Nonetheless, we still expect the full year provision to be in line with our overall earlier guidance at around 25 basis points. Overall, our credit portfolio quality is broadly stable. And despite the volatility we have seen, our market risk is managed within our appetite parameters and we have taken measures to protect us against tail risk.

這是我們預期的正常化，因為與上一年相比，宏觀經濟環境不太溫和。儘管如此，我們仍預計全年撥備將與我們之前的整體指引一致，約為 25 個基點。總體而言，我們的信貸組合質量基本穩定。儘管我們看到了波動性，但我們的市場風險是在我們的偏好參數範圍內管理的，我們已採取措施保護我們免受尾部風險的影響。

Turning to Slide 4, which illustrates the improved profitability that we believe positions us well in pace for tougher macroeconomic outlook and more challenging credit environment. The Core Bank delivered a return on tangible equity of 10% in the first 9 months, up from 7.5% in 2021 and in line with our 2022 target of greater than 9%. As a result, Core bank preprovision profit rose 40% year-on-year to EUR 6.4 billion in the first 9 months. And preprovision profit is not only higher, but also better diversified across our franchise.

轉到幻燈片 4，它說明了盈利能力的提高，我們認為這使我們能夠很好地應對更嚴峻的宏觀經濟前景和更具挑戰性的信貸環境。核心銀行在前 9 個月實現了 10% 的有形股本回報率，高於 2021 年的 7.5%，符合我們 2022 年超過 9% 的目標。因此，前 9 個月核心銀行的預提利潤同比增長 40% 至 64 億歐元。預配置利潤不僅更高，而且在我們的特許經營中也更加多元化。

The contribution from our stable businesses has increased significantly. The Corporate Bank, Private Bank and Asset Management now account for over 60% of preprovision profits. And with the turn in the interest rate cycle, we expect the contributions from our Core Bank and Private Bank to remain sustainably strong in future periods.

我們穩定業務的貢獻顯著增加。企業銀行、私人銀行和資產管理現在佔預提利潤的 60% 以上。隨著利率週期的轉變，我們預計我們的核心銀行和私人銀行的貢獻在未來時期將保持持續強勁。

Let's just now look at topics that drive our revenue performance over the next slides. Slide 5 provides further details on the development in our loan and deposit books over the quarter. We have been successfully delivering on our strategy of growing our lending books as part of the overall growth in our stable businesses and to reduce surplus liquidity. With liquidity now around target levels, we're beginning to shift to a more balanced loan and deposit growth pattern in order to fund continued growth while maintaining sufficiently prudent liquidity levels.

現在讓我們看看在下一張幻燈片中推動我們收入表現的主題。幻燈片 5 提供了有關本季度我們的貸款和存款賬簿發展的更多詳細信息。作為穩定業務整體增長和減少過剩流動性的一部分，我們成功實施了增加借貸賬簿的戰略。隨著流動性現在接近目標水平，我們開始轉向更加平衡的貸款和存款增長模式，以便為持續增長提供資金，同時保持足夠審慎的流動性水平。

Loan growth across the bank has been EUR 10 billion in the third quarter or EUR 2 billion on an FX-adjusted basis. We saw continued strong momentum from collateralized lending in our private bank and sustained client demand across our fixed franchise, while loans and origination and advisory remained flat. Given the current economic outlook, we are very focused on actively managing our risk profile, and ensuring a disciplined approach in underwriting new business, particularly in structured lending.

第三季度全銀行的貸款增長為 100 億歐元，經外匯調整後為 20 億歐元。我們看到私人銀行抵押貸款的持續強勁勢頭以及我們固定特許經營權的持續客戶需求，而貸款、發起和諮詢保持平穩。鑑於當前的經濟前景，我們非常專注於積極管理我們的風險狀況，並確保在承銷新業務時採取嚴格的方法，特別是在結構性貸款方面。

Deposits grew by EUR 10 billion compared to the previous quarter when adjusting for FX. This growth has been primarily driven by corporate clients holding higher cash reserves amidst a more challenging macro environment. We expect to see continued volatility in corporate deposits as economic uncertainties keep impacting our clients as well as muted growth in retail deposits due to inflationary pressures on consumers. At the same time, deposit margins have started to increase following recent interest rate hikes, a trend that based on current forward curves will continue.

經外匯調整後，存款與上一季度相比增加了 100 億歐元。這一增長主要是由在更具挑戰性的宏觀環境中持有較高現金儲備的企業客戶推動的。我們預計公司存款將繼續波動，因為經濟不確定性繼續影響我們的客戶，以及消費者面臨的通脹壓力導致零售存款增長放緩。與此同時，隨著近期加息，存款利差開始增加，基於當前遠期曲線的趨勢將繼續。

Let me now provide some detail on the evolution of our net interest margin on Slide 6. As we flagged to you last quarter, our NIM trend continues to remain positive in line with rising interest rates. The NIM increase was driven both by euro and dollar rates with euro rates now starting to play a bigger role.

現在讓我在幻燈片 6 中提供一些關於我們的淨息差演變的細節。正如我們上個季度向您指出的那樣，隨著利率上升，我們的 NIM 趨勢繼續保持積極。 NIM 的增長受到歐元和美元匯率的推動，歐元匯率現在開始發揮更大的作用。

The NIM increase was also driven by approximately 5 basis points of positive one-offs. Most notably from the buyback of our senior nonpreferred debt offsetting the positive one-offs we flagged for the second quarter. Average interest-earning assets rose reflecting U.S. dollar strengthening and underlying loan growth. Interest rate tailwinds have increased since the second quarter, with benefits now significantly above EUR 3 billion in 2025 compared to our 2021 baseline. However, wider funding spreads will have an offsetting impact if they persist at these levels. The net impact remains materially better than the impact we flagged to you at the IDD back in March.

NIM 增加也受到約 5 個基點的一次性正值推動。最值得注意的是回購我們的高級非優先債務抵消了我們為第二季度標記的一次性積極債務。平均生息資產上升，反映出美元走強和基礎貸款增長。自第二季度以來，利率順風有所增加，與我們 2021 年的基線相比，到 2025 年的收益現在大大超過 30 億歐元。但是，如果資金利差持續保持在這些水平，則更大的資金利差將產生抵消影響。淨影響仍然大大好於我們在 3 月份在 IDD 上向您標記的影響。

Let me now give you some additional details on net interest income sensitivity on Slide 7. Further increases in rates above current market implied levels will continue to add to the interest rate-driven tailwind. Over time, the largest impact will come from long-end rates as we roll over our hedge portfolios to higher levels, particularly in Europe. Currently, we see our deposit repricing lower than our beta assumptions, and this effect in part drives the higher sensitivity at the shorter end. Over time, we would expect betas to converge closer to our model assumptions.

現在讓我在幻燈片 7 上為您提供一些有關淨利息收入敏感性的更多細節。利率高於當前市場隱含水平的進一步上升將繼續增加利率驅動的順風。隨著時間的推移，最大的影響將來自長期利率，因為我們將我們的對沖投資組合展期到更高的水平，尤其是在歐洲。目前，我們看到我們的存款重新定價低於我們的貝塔假設，這種影響部分推動了較短端的更高敏感性。隨著時間的推移，我們預計 beta 會更接近我們的模型假設。

Moving to Slide 8, highlighting the development of our key liquidity metrics. We have maintained our solid liquidity and funding position despite continued volatility in asset markets. The stock of our high-quality liquid assets increased by about EUR 20 billion during the third quarter. This is mainly due to continued deposit growth, primarily driven by the Corporate Bank and net new capital market issuances. This was partially offset by loan growth, particularly in Private Bank.

轉到幻燈片 8，重點介紹我們關鍵流動性指標的發展。儘管資產市場持續波動，我們仍保持穩健的流動性和資金狀況。我們的優質流動資產存量在第三季度增加了約 200 億歐元。這主要是由於存款持續增長，主要受企業銀行和資本市場新發行淨額的推動。這部分被貸款增長所抵消，特別是在私人銀行。

As a result, the liquidity coverage ratio increased by 3 percentage points to 136%. The surplus above minimum requirements increased by about EUR 9 billion quarter-on-quarter to EUR 60 billion. Our average daily liquidity coverage ratio over the past 3 months was at about 134% and underlying stability and proactive steering of the balance sheet in line with target levels. While we remain committed to support the business growth, we continue to manage the LCR conservatively towards 130% for the remainder of this year. The net stable funding ratio remains at 116%, which is within our target range.

因此，流動性覆蓋率提高了 3 個百分點，達到 136%。高於最低要求的盈餘環比增加約 90 億歐元，達到 600 億歐元。過去 3 個月，我們的日均流動性覆蓋率約為 134%，資產負債表的基本穩定性和主動轉向符合目標水平。雖然我們仍致力於支持業務增長，但我們將在今年剩餘時間內繼續將 LCR 保守地管理至 130%。淨穩定資金比率保持在 116%，在我們的目標範圍內。

The surplus of EUR 85 billion remains comfortably above the 100% requirement. The available longer-term stable funding sources for the bank remains well diversified and continue benefiting from a solid deposit franchise, which contributes about 2/3 of the group's stable funding sources. We aim to maintain this funding mix, which will be supplemented by the longer-dated capital market issuances in line with our issuance plan.

850 億歐元的盈餘仍遠高於 100% 的要求。銀行可用的較長期穩定資金來源仍然多元化，並繼續受益於穩固的存款業務，佔集團穩定資金來源的約 2/3。我們的目標是維持這種資金組合，並根據我們的發行計劃通過較長期的資本市場發行來補充。

Turning to capital on Slide 9. Our Common Equity Tier 1 ratio ended at 13.3%, 37 basis points higher compared to the previous quarter. CET1 capital increased in the quarter, adding 13 basis points. Strong organic capital generation net of deductions for dividend and additional Tier 1 coupon payments added 24 basis points. This was offset by 9 basis points for slightly higher other deductions. The second element of driving the strong ratio were lower risk-weighted assets contributing around 24 basis points. Almost half of this is attributable to market risk, where we have seen very low VaR and sVaR levels early in the quarter, which picked up towards the end of the quarter with increased client activity.

在幻燈片 9 上轉向資本。我們的普通股一級比率收於 13.3%，比上一季度高 37 個基點。 CET1 資本在本季度增加了 13 個基點。扣除股息和額外的一級票面支付後，強勁的有機資本生成增加了 24 個基點。由於其他扣除額略高，這被 9 個基點所抵消。推動該比率強勁的第二個因素是較低的風險加權資產貢獻了約 24 個基點。其中幾乎一半歸因於市場風險，我們在本季度初看到非常低的 VaR 和 sVaR 水平，隨著客戶活動的增加，該水平在本季度末回升。

The rest is attributable to credit risk and operational risk. In credit risk, the reduction is driven by modest growth in stable businesses, which is more than offset by tight risk management in the investment bank.

其餘歸因於信用風險和操作風險。在信用風險方面，下降是由穩定業務的適度增長推動的，這被投資銀行嚴格的風險管理所抵消。

Our capital ratios remain well above regulatory requirements, as shown on Slide 10. In line with the CET1 capital ratio development in the quarter, the distance to the CET1 ratio capital requirement has increased by 36 basis points and now stands at 289 basis points or EUR 11 billion of CET1 capital. Our available AT1 and Tier 2 capital is at or slightly above the respective regulatory requirements, which brings our total capital ratio distance to MDA to 304 basis points. This provides us with a comfortable starting point as we manage through the coming quarters.

我們的資本比率仍遠高於監管要求，如幻燈片 10 所示。與本季度 CET1 資本比率的發展一致，與 CET1 比率資本要求的距離增加了 36 個基點，目前為 289 個基點或歐元CET1資本110億。我們可用的 AT1 和二級資本達到或略高於各自的監管要求，這使我們與 MDA 的總資本比率距離達到 304 個基點。這為我們在未來幾個季度的管理提供了一個舒適的起點。

Moving to Slide 11. Our leverage ratio was 4.3%, unchanged over the quarter. Increased Tier 1 capital added 4 basis points, driven by strong third quarter earnings, net of deductions for dividends and AT1 coupons. 1 basis point came from essentially flat leverage exposure. For the quarter, FX translation effects led to a 3 basis point reduction in our Tier 1 leverage ratio. The corresponding effect year-to-date was a reduction of 9 basis points.

轉到幻燈片 11。我們的槓桿率為 4.3%，與本季度持平。增加的一級資本增加了 4 個基點，這得益於強勁的第三季度收益（扣除股息和 AT1 票息的扣除）。 1 個基點來自基本持平的槓桿敞口。本季度，外匯轉換效應導致我們的一級槓桿比率降低了 3 個基點。年初至今的相應影響是減少了 9 個基點。

We continue to operate with a significant loss-absorbing capacity, well above all our requirements, as shown on Slide 12. The MREL surplus, as our most binding constraint, has increased by EUR 4 billion to EUR 19 billion over the quarter. The increase was driven by higher regulatory capital and new issuances of eligible liabilities, which were partly offset by 2 successful public tender offerings and further roll-downs during the quarter.

如幻燈片 12 所示，我們繼續以顯著的虧損吸收能力運營，遠高於我們的所有要求。作為我們最具約束力的限制因素，MREL 盈餘在本季度增加了 40 億歐元，達到 190 億歐元。這一增長是由較高的監管資本和新發行的合格負債推動的，這部分被本季度兩次成功的公開招標和進一步縮減所抵消。

Our loss-absorbing capacity buffer remains at a comfortable level and continues to provide us with the flexibility to pause issuing new eligible liability instruments for approximately 1 year. This buffer also allows us to maintain the one notch uplift in our senior nonpreferred rating from Moody's based on their Loss-Given-Failure methodology over and above the improved baseline credit assessment following the most recent upgrade. We intend to maintain the LGF notch for the foreseeable future, certainly at the current rating level.

我們的損失吸收能力緩衝保持在一個舒適的水平，並繼續為我們提供暫停發行新的合格責任工具約 1 年的靈活性。這一緩衝還使我們能夠在最近一次升級後改進的基准信用評估基礎上，根據穆迪的基於損失的失敗方法，將我們的高級非優先評級維持在一個等級上的提升。我們打算在可預見的未來維持 LGF 評級，當然是在目前的評級水平。

Moving now to our issuance plan on Slide 13. The quarter was characterized by ongoing challenging market conditions with high levels of interest rate and credit spread volatility. In this context, we are pleased to being largely complete in terms of 2022 issuers requirements. Since the last FI call at the end of July, we issued a total of EUR 4.7 billion, taking the year-to-date total to close to EUR 19 billion. I would note that this total was slightly inflated due to EUR 2.7 billion of structured notes, which were not part of the original funding plan.

現在轉到幻燈片 13 上的發行計劃。本季度的特點是市場環境持續充滿挑戰，利率和信用利差波動性很高。在這種情況下，我們很高興在 2022 年發行人要求方面基本完成。自 7 月底上次 FI 電話會議以來，我們共發行了 47 億歐元，使年初至今的總額接近 190 億歐元。我會注意到，由於 27 億歐元的結構性票據不屬於原始融資計劃的一部分，這一總數略有增加。

This activity is being moved into the Investment Bank. Notable in the quarter were a dual tranche Pfandbrief issue along with a senior nonpreferred issuance in both euros and Sing dollars. The 5- and 10-year Pfandbrief issuances secured attractive funding levels for the bank and we further diversified our investor base through the inaugural Sing dollar issuance.

這項活動正在轉移到投資銀行。本季度值得注意的是雙檔 Pfandbrief 發行以及歐元和新元的高級非優先發行。 5 年和 10 年期 Pfandbrief 的發行為銀行確保了有吸引力的資金水平，我們通過首次發行新元進一步多元化了我們的投資者基礎。

In August and September, we completed 2 public market tenders in euros, sterling and U.S. dollars for a total amount of EUR 2.1 billion. In the 2 transactions, we bought back EUR 1.1 billion in euros and sterling bonds and $1 billion bonds. The tenders tightened our credit spreads in all 3 currencies and supported our NIM by around 5 basis points, as mentioned earlier.

8 月和 9 月，我們完成了 2 次歐元、英鎊和美元的公開市場招標，總金額為 21 億歐元。在 2 筆交易中，我們回購了 11 億歐元的歐元和英鎊債券以及 10 億美元的債券。如前所述，投標收緊了我們所有 3 種貨幣的信用利差，並支持我們的 NIM 約 5 個基點。

We continue to guide to roughly EUR 20 billion of issuance for full year 2022 and may consider some prefunding for 2023 in Q4, depending on market conditions.

我們繼續指導 2022 年全年發行約 200 億歐元，並可能考慮在第四季度為 2023 年提供一些預籌資金，具體取決於市場情況。

Turning to the outlook on Slide 14. We believe our strong performance in the Core Bank in the past 9 months is a testament to the quality of our businesses and the strength of our franchise. Reflecting on this performance, we see upside to our 2022 revenue guidance of EUR 26 billion to EUR 27 billion, particularly given the trends we see in our stable businesses.

轉向幻燈片 14 的前景。我們認為，過去 9 個月我們在核心銀行的強勁表現證明了我們的業務質量和我們的特許經營實力。考慮到這一表現，我們認為我們 2022 年的收入指引為 260 億歐元至 270 億歐元，特別是考慮到我們在穩定業務中看到的趨勢。

Business momentum in the past 9 months combined with improving operating leverage makes us even more confident in the delivery of our 2022 strategy and financial goals. We continue to adhere to strict risk management principles, particularly in this continued uncertain environment. We are very focused on managing our resilient balance sheet, and we confirm that we expect our provision for credit losses at around 25 basis points of average loans for the full year.

過去 9 個月的業務發展勢頭加上經營槓桿的提高，使我們對實現 2022 年戰略和財務目標更有信心。我們繼續堅持嚴格的風險管理原則，尤其是在這種持續不確定的環境中。我們非常專注於管理我們有彈性的資產負債表，我們確認我們預計全年平均貸款的信用損失準備金約為 25 個基點。

As I mentioned earlier, our credit ratings were upgraded by Moody's earlier this month. following the upgrades of the 3 big agencies in 2021. We expect this to have a positive impact on both our issuance spreads and business volumes, specifically in the Investment Bank and Corporate Bank over time. On the issuance side, we have almost completed our funding requirements for this year and remain flexible to prefund our requirements for next year. The funding plan for 2023 will be presented at the Q4 Fixed Income Call in early February.

正如我之前提到的，穆迪本月早些時候上調了我們的信用評級。隨著 2021 年三大機構的升級。我們預計這將對我們的發行價差和業務量產生積極影響，特別是隨著時間的推移對投資銀行和企業銀行的影響。在發行方面，我們已經基本完成了今年的資金需求，並且可以靈活地預付明年的資金需求。 2023 年的融資計劃將在 2 月初的第四季度固定收益電話會議上公佈。

With that, I will finish, and we look forward to your questions.

至此，我將結束，我們期待您的提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from the line of Brajesh Kumar from Societe Generale.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Brajesh Kumar。

Richard. This is Brajesh from SocGen. I've got 3 questions, if I may. First, in light of the changes to TLTRO, so do you intend to repay tranches earlier than expected? And how does this, in general, the ECB announcement affecting your funding plans? I mean, I know that we have numbers for FY '22, but we'll appreciate any color on your future plans.

理查德。這是來自法國興業銀行的 Brajesh。如果可以的話，我有 3 個問題。首先，鑑於 TLTRO 的變化，您是否打算提前償還部分？總的來說，歐洲央行的公告如何影響您的融資計劃？我的意思是，我知道我們有 22 財年的數字，但我們會很感激你未來計劃的任何顏色。

Second one is more generic. I mean looking at yesterday's various ECB announcements, what is your general view on guidance? Expected impact on the rate guidance that you provided us? Anything you want to add? And finally, how are you looking at asset quality in FY '23? Are you seeing any kind of strain in your loan book? Would love to get your thoughts out here. I think that's it.

第二個更通用。我的意思是看看昨天歐洲央行的各種公告，您對指引的總體看法是什麼？對您提供給我們的費率指導的預期影響？你有什麼要補充的嗎？最後，您如何看待 23 財年的資產質量？您是否在貸款簿中看到任何壓力？很想在這裡表達你的想法。我想就是這樣。

Thanks, Brajesh, and welcome, and thank you for joining. I think I'll take the first questions on TLTRO and then maybe I'll just hand over to James over this his overall thoughts on yesterday's announcement. So in terms of the changes TLTRO and the impact of our funding plan, the ECB announcement will not have an impact on our issuance plan as TLTROs, longer-dated tranches remain an economic source of term funding.

謝謝，Brajesh，歡迎您，感謝您的加入。我想我會回答關於 TLTRO 的第一個問題，然後也許我會把他對昨天公告的總體想法交給詹姆斯。因此，就 TLTRO 的變化和我們的融資計劃的影響而言，歐洲央行的公告不會對我們的發行計劃產生影響，因為 TLTRO、較長期的部分仍然是定期融資的經濟來源。

As we have noted repeatedly, TLTRO was an important source of financing support for the European economy and not an arbitrage opportunity. DB's funding plan was designed around a smooth amortization of reliance on TLTRO, and this profile remains unaffected by Thursday's decisions. We are reviewing the extent to which we prepaid the earliest tranches, but these would not be prepaid in full as these are also supporting client transactions which may not be beneficial to unwind early. James, perhaps you want to just talk about your overall thoughts.

正如我們反復指出的那樣，TLTRO 是歐洲經濟的重要融資支持來源，而不是套利機會。 DB 的融資計劃是圍繞對 TLTRO 的依賴平穩攤銷而設計的，並且這一概況不受週四決定的影響。我們正在審查我們預付最早付款的程度，但這些不會全額預付，因為這些也支持客戶交易，可能不利於提前平倉。詹姆斯，也許你只想談談你的整體想法。

Yes. Thank you, Richard. Look, I think the rate decision, by and large, was in line with market expectations, and therefore, it fits with the earlier outlook we provided for our rate sensitivity and the path of net interest income from here. Obviously, the market is still trying to find the right balance between their assessment of the dovishness or hawkishness of the central banks, and you've seen that a little bit yesterday and today since the announcement.

是的。謝謝你，理查德。看，我認為利率決定大體上符合市場預期，因此，它符合我們早些時候為利率敏感性和淨利息收入路徑提供的前景。顯然，市場仍在努力在他們對央行鴿派或鷹派的評估之間找到適當的平衡，自宣布以來你已經在昨天和今天看到了一點點。

But for us, it's reasonably in line with our expectations. I have to say on the TLTRO decision, there we are deeply disappointed by the decision to have retrospectively amended the terms of a monetary policy instrument that has over $2 trillion of balances in it, to our mind, is a spectacularly large mulligan to have taken for themselves.

但對我們來說，這符合我們的預期。我不得不說，關於 TLTRO 的決定，我們對追溯修改一項擁有超過 2 萬億美元餘額的貨幣政策工具的條款的決定深感失望，在我們看來，這是一個非常大的再調度。為自己。

The banks entered into these instruments in good faith with the intention of supporting lending in the economy, that lending has been committed to clients. And I think most banks met the, if you like, the hurdles that were implicit in the instrument. And the banks are now harmed in 2 or 3 different ways going forward economically. First, there's the loss of the additional benefit from the original terms that will flow into earnings in the next several years that obviously would have supported profitability, organic capital generation and the ability of the banks to support the economy and what will undoubtedly be a difficult time.

銀行本著善意簽訂這些工具的目的是支持經濟中的貸款，而貸款已承諾給客戶。而且我認為，如果您願意，大多數銀行都遇到了該工具中隱含的障礙。銀行現在在經濟上受到 2 或 3 種不同方式的損害。首先，原始條款的額外收益將在未來幾年流入收益中，這些收益顯然會支持盈利能力、有機資本產生和銀行支持經濟的能力，這無疑將是一個困難時間。

I think secondly, when that funding went into the economy, it influenced asset spreads. And so we live with the asset spreads that were entered into at that point in time and that will be with us -- even as rates rise, that will be with us for some time. And lastly, and I think quite importantly, TLTRO was built into the ALM modeling of the banks, and therefore, the hedging that was done. And now I think certain banks could have potentially significant costs in addition, unwinding the hedging that was done.

其次，我認為，當這些資金進入經濟時，它會影響資產利差。因此，我們忍受著當時進入的資產利差，這將伴隨我們——即使利率上升，這將伴隨我們一段時間。最後，我認為非常重要的是，TLTRO 已內置於銀行的 ALM 模型中，因此已完成對沖。現在，我認為某些銀行可能還會產生潛在的巨額成本，從而解除已經完成的對沖。

And if you take a step back then from the economic costs, again, the implicit contract that existed around TLTRO and think about the path forward, the banks will have to now assess the reliability of long-term actions, long-term policy tools and how we take those up, how we hedge them, how we build them into our risk modeling in a way that wouldn't have been the case had they left those terms unchanged. So we have, I think, a strong reaction to that part of yesterday's announcement, Brajesh.

如果你從經濟成本上退後一步，再一次，圍繞 TLTRO 存在的隱性合同並考慮前進的道路，銀行現在必須評估長期行動、長期政策工具和我們如何處理這些，我們如何對沖它們，我們如何將它們構建到我們的風險模型中，如果他們保持這些條款不變，情況就不會如此。所以，我認為，我們對昨天宣布的那部分反應強烈，布拉傑什。

Okay. Super clear. And any views on asset quality in FY '23.

好的。超級清晰。以及對 23 財年資產質量的任何看法。

Yes. Thank you for the reminder. So on Wednesday, we sort of -- our guidance was -- look, we think the normalized rate of CLPs is in a range between 20 and 25 basis points for our portfolio. Looking to next year, I think at this point, again, it's very early to judge this, but I would expect us to be at the high end of that range, maybe a couple of basis points above it.

是的。謝謝你提醒我。所以在周三，我們有點——我們的指導是——看，我們認為 CLP 的標準化利率在我們投資組合的 20 到 25 個基點之間。展望明年，我認為在這一點上，再次判斷這一點還為時過早，但我預計我們將處於該範圍的高端，可能高出幾個基點。

But still with a reasonably sanguine view of the portfolio quality we have and the sort of condition of households and corporates going into what we're obviously aware will be a more difficult economic environment. But again, it's part of our underwriting discipline that we try to build a portfolio that will withstand a market cycle. And our hope is that, that an expectation is that the portfolio will perform according to our modeling.

但是，我們仍然對我們擁有的投資組合質量以及家庭和企業進入我們顯然意識到的經濟環境更加困難的那種狀況持相當樂觀的看法。但同樣，這是我們承保紀律的一部分，我們試圖建立一個能夠承受市場週期的投資組合。我們的希望是，期望投資組合將根據我們的模型執行。

Okay. Very good. And just 1 last bit of clarification. I see that in your slides, you still have got EUR 3 billion to EUR 4 billion for AT1, Tier 2 versus year-to-date issuance of EUR 3 billion. So does this mean and you're kind of keeping the optionality open to come to an AT1 Tier 2 market, if it's the need be? I mean, should I read it like that?

好的。很好。最後一點澄清。我在您的幻燈片中看到，AT1、Tier 2 與年初至今的 30 億歐元相比，您仍有 30 億至 40 億歐元。那麼這是否意味著，如果需要的話，您會保留進入 AT1 Tier 2 市場的選擇權嗎？我的意思是，我應該這樣讀嗎？

I think that's a reasonable assumption. I think the -- as you say, we've successfully done our issuance plan for the year. But as, I guess, with all frequent issuers, we always look at things, whether it makes sense for us given sort of the opportunities you will see within the firm to grow our assets at attractive levels. So yes, there's a chance that we may look to do something in the coming quarters. .

我認為這是一個合理的假設。我認為 - 正如你所說，我們已經成功完成了今年的發行計劃。但是，我想，對於所有頻繁發行的發行人，我們總是關注事物，考慮到您將在公司內看到的將我們的資產增長到有吸引力的水平的機會，這對我們是否有意義。所以是的，我們有可能在接下來的幾個季度裡做點什麼。 .

The next question is from the line of Iuliana Golub from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Iuliana Golub。

Three questions, please. First one on ratings. Do you expect any move from S&P to upgrade your ratings as a follow-up from the move from Moody's earlier in October.

請教三個問題。第一個關於收視率。作為 10 月初穆迪此舉的後續行動，您是否預計標普會採取任何行動上調您的評級。

Then 2 questions on capital. Given the increase in MDA in 2023, do you also intend to update your target CET1 ratio? The minimum 12.5% would look a bit out of sync if you have an MDA of around 11%. And then has there been any progress and the convergence between the ICAP and the regulatory reported ratios regimes? Or do you very much continue to manage the group to both regimes? And lastly, on Tier 2 could you please describe how you look at the economics of refinancing your Tier 2 debt? And maybe any indications around refi costs should be to the -- should we look at the refi cost to the recent level?

然後是關於資本的2個問題。鑑於 2023 年 MDA 的增加，您是否也打算更新您的目標 CET1 比率？如果您的 MDA 大約為 11%，則最低 12.5% 看起來有點不同步。那麼，ICAP 和監管報告的比率制度之間是否有任何進展和趨同？或者你是否非常繼續管理這兩個政權的團隊？最後，關於第 2 層，您能否描述一下您如何看待為第 2 層債務再融資的經濟學？也許關於 refi 成本的任何跡像都應該是——我們應該看看 refi 成本到最近的水平嗎？

Thanks, Iuliana. The -- so I guess, taking your first question, which I think is around the S&P rating upgrade potential. So I'd say, first of all, we're very pleased with the upgrade from Moody's. That's the second from them within the last 14 months, which I think is a strong signal that our transformation is successful, and we're on the right track towards a sustainable, profitable bank.

謝謝，尤利安娜。 - 所以我想，回答你的第一個問題，我認為這是圍繞標準普爾評級上調的潛力。所以我想說，首先，我們對穆迪的升級感到非常滿意。這是他們在過去 14 個月內的第二次，我認為這是一個強烈的信號，表明我們的轉型是成功的，我們正朝著可持續、盈利的銀行邁進。

In addition, as you know, Fitch confirmed our positive outlook in September. We know what is expected from us with -- from them to move that rating level, and we're focused on delivering. And then ultimately, we are hopeful that we will also see that something similar from S&P and they will recognize the progress the bank has made over the last couple of years.

此外，如您所知，惠譽在 9 月份確認了我們的積極展望。我們知道對我們的期望——從他們那裡提高評級水平，我們專注於交付。然後最終，我們希望我們也能從標準普爾看到類似的東西，他們會認識到該銀行在過去幾年中取得的進展。

So yes, I guess we're hopeful we kind of see the positive movement from the other rating agencies and we hope that will follow through with the S&P.

所以，是的，我想我們希望我們能看到其他評級機構的積極變化，我們希望標準普爾指數能夠跟進。

So Iuliana, it's James, on the capital questions. Firstly, yes, the 12.5% that we've operated under for the past several years has been a minimum that we wanted to maintain also in stress conditions given we were traveling through a period of restructuring and transformation.

所以 Iuliana，我是 James，關於大寫的問題。首先，是的，我們在過去幾年中運營的 12.5% 一直是我們希望在壓力條件下也能保持的最低限度，因為我們正在經歷一段重組和轉型時期。

But as we began to indicate at the Investor Deep Dive in March, our thinking is evolving towards maintaining a minimum gap to MDA and hence, the guidance to that we've given to 13 recently in recent quarters. And so it is certainly evolving, and we'd like to maintain a gap -- an appropriate gap, call it, 200 basis points to MDA as MDA develops. Next year, as you recall, the countercyclical buffer and the sectoral buffer become binding in February. And so that, of course, begins to enter into our thinking.

但正如我們在 3 月份的投資者深度潛水中開始指出的那樣，我們的想法正在朝著與 MDA 保持最小差距的方向發展，因此，我們最近幾個季度對 13 家公司給予了指導。所以它肯定在發展，我們希望保持一個差距——一個適當的差距，稱之為，隨著 MDA 的發展， MDA 的差距為 200 個基點。明年，您還記得，逆週期緩沖和部門緩沖在 2 月開始具有約束力。因此，當然，開始進入我們的思想。

On the ICAP or economic capital measures, I will say, over the past several sort of quarters and years as we've seen the impact of model changes and methodology changes, rule changes and as that continues now through to 2025, we've observed in the past that our -- there's a divergence between our regulatory capital requirements and our economic capital requirements. The former continuing to increase while the latter we're managing relatively flat. Obviously, it grows somewhat as the balance sheet grows. But the capital intensity of our business on a relative basis hasn't been significantly fluctuating. So we clearly manage to it, and it's something we're always mindful of. And we are observing a trend of divergence between the 2 with the regulatory being the most binding.

關於 ICAP 或經濟資本措施，我會說，在過去的幾個季度和幾年中，我們已經看到了模型變化和方法變化、規則變化的影響，並且這種情況一直持續到 2025 年，我們觀察到過去，我們的監管資本要求和經濟資本要求之間存在差異。前者繼續增加，而後者我們的管理相對持平。顯然，它隨著資產負債表的增長而有所增長。但相對而言，我們業務的資本密集度並沒有顯著波動。所以我們顯然設法做到了，這是我們一直在註意的事情。我們正在觀察兩者之間的分歧趨勢，其中監管最具約束力。

And then maybe if I shall pick up your Tier 2 call structure. Yes, I think, I guess, how we think about these things is how we always think about all our calls, which is that we'll continue to make decisions regarding the exercise of an issue a call right close to the exercise date, balancing the interest of our stakeholders. Our approach is based on economic factors, including the usefulness of the instrument for capital funding rating agency metrics as well as the cost of the instrument versus alternatives. So that strategy remains consistent and we'll apply that to any upcoming calls which are coming.

然後也許我會選擇你的第 2 層呼叫結構。是的，我想，我想，我們如何看待這些事情就是我們始終如何看待我們所有的電話，也就是說，我們將繼續就在接近行使日期的電話的行使做出決定，平衡我們利益相關者的利益。我們的方法基於經濟因素，包括該工具對資本融資評級機構指標的有用性以及該工具與替代品的成本。因此，該策略保持一致，我們會將其應用於任何即將到來的電話會議。

The next question is from the line of Soumya Sarkar from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Soumya Sarkar。

Welcome to Richard. I had 2 questions, if I could. First, you said that you were still committed to the leverage ratio target of 4.5% by the end of 2022. Is that -- does it still imply that we'd see a tick up from the current 4.3%? And would that have additional AT1 issuance as part of the plan?

歡迎來到理查德。如果可以的話，我有 2 個問題。首先，您說您仍然致力於到 2022 年底實現 4.5% 的槓桿率目標。這是否仍然意味著我們會看到從目前的 4.3% 上升？作為計劃的一部分，是否會有額外的 AT1 發行？

And my second question on your deposit development, you mentioned that you expect lower growth in retail deposits going ahead. And we can see that corporate deposits have increased. Is that a trend you expect to see to continue in '23? And how does that affect your margins going ahead as well?

關於您的存款發展的第二個問題，您提到您預計未來零售存款的增長將放緩。我們可以看到，企業存款有所增加。您希望在 23 年繼續看到這種趨勢嗎？這又如何影響您未來的利潤？

Thanks, Soumya. So I guess taking your leverage ratio question first. We -- I guess -- as I guess maybe to start off with, obviously, AT1 is one tool in the tool kit that we can use to manage leverage if we so wished. But we -- as you said, we finished Q3 at 4.3%. We are confident of achieving a leverage ratio of around 4.5% for 2022.

謝謝，蘇米亞。所以我想先回答你的槓桿率問題。我們——我猜——正如我猜想的那樣，顯然，AT1 是工具包中的一個工具，如果我們願意，我們可以使用它來管理槓桿。但是我們——正如你所說，我們在第三季度結束時為 4.3%。我們有信心在 2022 年實現 4.5% 左右的槓桿率。

And as I think I also said in earlier was that we have seen a 9 basis point drag year-to-date on our leverage ratio from FX effects as per -- and we might not fully compensate those FX effects through leverage exposure reductions immediately if we kind of felt that, that was going to have a negative impact on some of our business lines where you kind of see some profitable opportunities still. So overall, we still -- like I said, we're pretty confident of achieving that leverage ratio of around 4.5%. But just bear in mind that the FX effect as well.

正如我想我之前所說的那樣，我們已經看到今年迄今為止我們的槓桿率因外匯影響而拖累了 9 個基點——如果我們可能不會立即通過減少槓桿敞口來完全補償這些外匯影響，如果我們有點覺得，這將對我們的一些業務線產生負面影響，您仍然會看到一些有利可圖的機會。所以總的來說，我們仍然——就像我說的那樣，我們非常有信心實現 4.5% 左右的槓桿率。但請記住，FX 效果也是如此。

And Soumya, it's James. On deposits, we've seen reasonably encouraging and steady growth in the deposit books over the past several quarters. And at least so far, no apparent moderation of that nor to be fair, an excessive competition for deposits in our markets. And so while one would expect this to begin to tail off as liquidity drains out of the system and the actions of the central banks, particularly QT, begin to take effect. And we haven't seen that impact so far.

Soumya，是詹姆斯。在存款方面，我們看到過去幾個季度的存款賬簿出現了相當令人鼓舞和穩定的增長。至少到目前為止，這並沒有明顯緩和，公平地說，我們市場上對存款的過度競爭。因此，雖然人們預計隨著流動性從系統中流失以及中央銀行的行動，尤其是 QT 的行動開始生效，這種情況會開始放緩。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到這種影響。

Incidentally, the other item that would probably draw down deposits in the system is just household usage as they go through the impact of higher energy costs and what have you. So while all of that is sort of a change in dynamic that we would expect to see, we haven't -- it hasn't been visible so far and at this point hasn't fed into deposit pricing in a notable way.

順便說一句，可能會在系統中提取存款的另一個項目只是家庭使用，因為它們會受到更高能源成本的影響以及你有什麼。因此，雖然所有這些都是我們期望看到的動態變化，但我們還沒有——到目前為止還沒有看到，而且目前還沒有以顯著的方式影響存款定價。

The next question is from the line of Corinne Cunningham from Autonomous.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Corinne Cunningham。

A couple of follow-ups on the liquidity point. What type of collateral have you pledged behind TLTRO? And I wonder if you could guide us to what would your LCR look like if you were to redeem, let's say, the first opportunity in November?

關於流動性點的一些後續行動。您在 TLTRO 背後質押了什麼類型的抵押品？我想知道如果您要贖回（比方說，11 月的第一個機會），您能否指導我們了解您的 LCR 會是什麼樣子？

Thanks, Corinne, and very nice to meet you. So it's a good question on kind of what collateral we pledge is we're kind of working through what we want to do there. But I'll say around 2/3 of our collateral is illiquid, and that supports our liquidity coverage ratio. This would have about a EUR 30 billion impact on our LCR, if that was we're to lose instantaneously.

謝謝，科琳，很高興認識你。所以這是一個很好的問題，我們承諾什麼樣的抵押品是我們正在努力完成我們想要在那裡做的事情。但我會說我們大約 2/3 的抵押品是非流動性的，這支持了我們的流動性覆蓋率。這將對我們的 LCR 產生大約 300 億歐元的影響，如果那是我們瞬間虧損的話。

But as you know, we kind of staggered the tranches out until -- up to 2024, so we're not going to be doing any prepayment immediately. But like I said earlier, I think we have a pretty well contained amortization profile, which we're managing to and making sure that we can continue to keep -- to fund those clients.

但如你所知，我們有點錯開分期付款直到 - 直到 2024 年，所以我們不會立即進行任何預付款。但就像我之前說的，我認為我們有一個很好的攤銷配置文件，我們正在設法並確保我們可以繼續保持 - 為這些客戶提供資金。

The next question is from the line of Lee Street from Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的李街。

Let me ask some questions. Three, please. I think on the results today, the guidance was for revenues in excess of EUR 28 billion next year. Any detail or thoughts on what rate assumptions underlie that? Secondly, as it relates to group risk-weighted assets, how should one be thinking about an evolving over the course of next year from current levels, is it higher or lower? Any guess around that would be helpful.

讓我問一些問題。三，請。我認為根據今天的結果，該指引是針對明年的收入超過 280 億歐元。關於基於什麼利率假設的任何細節或想法？其次，由於它與集團風險加權資產有關，人們應該如何考慮明年從目前的水平演變，是更高還是更低？任何猜測都會有所幫助。

And finally, you've got a EUR 19 billion headroom to your MREL requirement presently. What's the minimum you might look to run out in terms of the hedging that, asking the question really, obviously, you did some buybacks, it seem to have quite a big impact on the margin. So just wondering, getting an idea of whether there could be more capacity for that included there, they will be my 3 questions.

最後，您目前有 190 億歐元的空間來滿足您的 MREL 要求。就對沖而言，您可能希望用完的最低限度是多少，問這個問題，很明顯，您進行了一些回購，這似乎對保證金產生了相當大的影響。所以只是想知道，了解其中是否包含更多容量，這將是我的 3 個問題。

Sure. Lee, it's James. I'll start on the first and probably part of the second, and Richard can take over on RWA and MREL, if he has other things to add on the RWA side. Look, the EUR 28 billion we guided to Christian went through, if you like, a walk thinking about the core businesses that we operate, essentially the run rate that they are exhibiting at this point in time and that we expect in Q4. So the step off that we have.

當然。李，是詹姆斯。我將從第一個開始，可能是第二個的一部分，如果理查德在 RWA 方面有其他事情要添加，他可以接管 RWA 和 MREL。看，如果你願意，我們引導給 Christian 的 280 億歐元經歷了一次思考我們運營的核心業務的散步，主要是他們目前展示的運行率以及我們在第四季度的預期。所以我們有一步。

There is growth outside of interest rates, so volume-related growth that one would hope we can achieve in the businesses. But then there's also a support from interest rates. We would -- to your question, we look at the implied forward rates. We look at the curve basically that the market shows, and we plan off of that. So that's visible to you as it is to us. We think there's about $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion of upside in '23 relative to '22 from interest rates and that's just the impact of the curve on a static balance sheet.

除了利率之外還有增長，因此人們希望我們能夠在業務中實現與數量相關的增長。但也有來自利率的支持。我們會 - 對於您的問題，我們會查看隱含的遠期利率。我們基本上看的是市場所顯示的曲線，然後我們對此進行計劃。所以這對你來說是可見的，對我們來說也是如此。我們認為，相對於 22 年，23 年的利率上漲空間約為 11 億至 12 億美元，這只是曲線對靜態資產負債表的影響。

But adjusting -- and interest rates by themselves will be much higher than that, but then we adjust out higher funding costs, non-repetition of some of the favorable factors that we had in 2022 and also the impact of TLTRO, which we spoke about earlier, which where the -- some of the benefits are rolling off. And compared to our early planning, we have a less favorable rate on that TLTRO. So the net of that was, call it, somewhere between $1 billion and $1.2 billion support for revenues next year.

但是調整——利率本身會比這高得多，但隨後我們調整了更高的融資成本、不重複我們在 2022 年所擁有的一些有利因素以及我們談到的 TLTRO 的影響早些時候，其中一些好處正在減少。與我們早期的計劃相比，我們對該 TLTRO 的利率較低。因此，其中的淨額，稱之為，明年的收入支持在 10 億至 12 億美元之間。

So all things equal, the current run rates would deliver that along with interest rates. RWAs are sort of trending higher. We are working to support business growth, support clients with our balance sheet but we need to obviously calibrate the RWA that we can give the businesses to the capital plan and our goals going forward.

因此，在所有條件相同的情況下，當前的運行率將與利率一起實現。風險加權資產呈上升趨勢。我們正在努力支持業務增長，通過我們的資產負債表支持客戶，但我們顯然需要校準 RWA，以便我們可以為企業提供資本計劃和我們未來的目標。

And there, again, I refer you to the Investor Day materials from March, where we -- our capital plan now accommodates 3 things. One is distributions to shareholders. The other is supporting the business growth, in other words, RWA. And the third is building the ratio over the next 2 years '23 and '24 towards the Basel III environment that we anticipate in '25.

在那裡，我再次向您推薦 3 月份的投資者日材料，我們的資本計劃現在包含 3 件事。一是對股東的分配。另一個是支持業務增長，即 RWA。第三個是在 23 年和 24 年的未來 2 年建立與我們在 25 年預期的巴塞爾協議 III 環境的比率。

So wanting to make sure essentially solve for a ratio on the 1st of January '25 that is still at the 13% after giving effect of the Basel III changes.

因此，要確保在 25 年 1 月 1 日基本解決在巴塞爾協議 III 變更生效後仍保持在 13% 的比率。

And then on the MREL side of things, like I say, we've got about buffer of around $19 billion or so. And that generally allows us the flexibility to pause issuing new senior nonpreferred or senior preferred instruments, which is for about a year, which is why we like holding the buffer. But also the subordinated part of MREL is also something that we want to ensure that we can target the Loss-Given-Failure ratios that Moody's set. So allows us just, as I said, that strong message that's around the rating as well to our investors.

然後在 MREL 方面，就像我說的，我們有大約 190 億美元左右的緩衝。這通常使我們能夠靈活地暫停發行新的優先非優先或優先優先工具，這大約是一年，這就是我們喜歡持有緩衝的原因。而且 MREL 的從屬部分也是我們希望確保我們能夠針對穆迪設定的損失給定失敗比率的東西。因此，正如我所說，這讓我們能夠向我們的投資者傳達圍繞評級的強烈信息。

Next question is from the line of Robert Smalley from UBS Fixed Income.

下一個問題來自瑞銀固定收益公司的 Robert Smalley。

Three questions. First, on asset quality. With respect to movement into stage 1, stage 2, stage 3, I'm assuming that Stage 3 will continue to be episodic. But could you give us an idea of where you see the trajectory of movement in Stage 1 -- from Stage 1 into Stage 2. And where that would -- if that changed, how would that -- what kind of concern would you have? And what kind of trajectory would cause you concern in terms of the change in movement through the categories? That's my first question.

三個問題。一是資產質量。關於進入第 1 階段、第 2 階段、第 3 階段，我假設第 3 階段將繼續是偶發的。但是，您能否告訴我們您在第 1 階段中看到的運動軌跡——從第 1 階段到第 2 階段。如果情況發生變化，那會如何——你會有什麼樣的擔憂？就類別的運動變化而言，什麼樣的軌跡會引起您的關注？這是我的第一個問題。

Second question with respect to funding overall. U.S. peers have been struggling with their balance sheet size around their securities business given more customer facilitation. The business as usual balance sheet is a little bigger than you've got stress coming in there. So there's -- on the risk management side, so there's a greater need for liquidity. How does that play into your plans for issuance next year? And how do you look at that?

第二個關於總體資金的問題。鑑於更多的客戶便利，美國同行一直在努力解決其證券業務的資產負債表規模問題。照常營業的資產負債表比你承受的壓力要大一點。因此，在風險管理方面，對流動性的需求更大。這對您明年的發行計劃有何影響？你怎麼看？

And then lastly, on the call the other day, was mentioned a couple of times that you think your spreads are too wide. I agree, particularly given recent upgrades and results besides doing liability management and calls like this, what else are you planning on doing to pull in your spreads?

最後，在前幾天的電話會議上，有幾次提到你認為你的點差太大。我同意，特別是考慮到最近的升級和結果，除了進行負債管理和這樣的電話之外，你還打算做什麼來拉動你的點差？

Robert, thank you for joining again. And boy, those are tough questions. On asset quality, it's hard to tell you what level of deterioration we're comfortable with. I mean, obviously, it's a fact of life that there's some deterioration in a book. In general, in recent quarters, the sort of downgrade/upgrade relationship has been relatively stable, if I think about it in terms of the mix, the limits where we've seen upgrades versus downgrades based on our internal rating.

羅伯特，感謝您再次加入。男孩，這些都是棘手的問題。在資產質量方面，很難告訴你我們對惡化程度感到滿意。我的意思是，很明顯，生活中的事實是一本書有一些惡化。總的來說，最近幾個季度，降級/升級關係相對穩定，如果我從組合的角度考慮的話，我們看到升級與降級的限制是基於我們的內部評級。

In a deteriorating macroeconomic environment, of course, that relationship will change somewhat but you'd prefer to see it be gradual than it accelerate pace. And as we mentioned on Wednesday, one of the things we're seeing at the moment is that those -- most of the forward-looking indicators haven't yet started demonstrating stress, including, for example, that upgrade/downgrade ratio.

當然，在不斷惡化的宏觀經濟環境中，這種關係會有所改變，但你更願意看到它是漸進的，而不是加快步伐。正如我們在周三提到的那樣，我們目前看到的一件事是那些——大多數前瞻性指標還沒有開始表現出壓力，包括，例如，升級/降級比率。

So hard to give you a sense of what level of movement would begin to cause us concern. You're right that Stage 3 is on impairment events. So it will be always somewhat episodic. I wouldn't expect the run rate at this point to necessarily to change dramatically from where we've been over the last several quarters. So we'd like for it to remain within a range. Stage 1 and 2 depends on 2 things in particular, economic variables. There, we might see some more deterioration as we get closer into the recessionary environment.

很難讓您了解什麼水平的運動會開始引起我們的關注。沒錯，第 3 階段是針對減值事件。所以它總是有點偶發性。我不認為此時的運行速度必然會與過去幾個季度的情況相比發生巨大變化。所以我們希望它保持在一個範圍內。第 1 階段和第 2 階段尤其取決於兩件事，即經濟變量。在那裡，隨著我們越來越接近衰退環境，我們可能會看到更多的惡化。

And then at some point, you'd see it begin to pull out as those macroeconomic indicators look forward to recovery. But the other dynamic we've got is the portfolio parameters. And there, this quarter, you had this very interesting behavior that the general portfolio improvement that was taking place on PD and LGD variables, that fed into our Stage 1 and 2 results driving the unusually low outcome and actually offsetting much of the macroeconomic variable related deterioration.

然後在某個時候，你會看到它開始退出，因為這些宏觀經濟指標期待復甦。但我們得到的另一個動態是投資組合參數。在本季度，你有一個非常有趣的行為，即在 PD 和 LGD 變量上發生的總體投資組合改進，這反映在我們的第一階段和第二階段結果中，導致異常低的結果，實際上抵消了與宏觀經濟變量相關的大部分惡化。

On the impact -- so moving to your U.S. peers question, yes, it's an interesting change in the environment that the availability of, call it, a leveraged balance sheet may be becoming more constrained again. We've got a level of leverage that we think we're generally comfortable with. As Richard outlined, we're giving a lot of thought to how much leverage to run against our ratio targets and the available capital.

關於影響 - 所以轉向你的美國同行問題，是的，這是一個有趣的環境變化，稱為槓桿資產負債表的可用性可能再次受到更多限制。我們有一定程度的槓桿作用，我們認為我們通常對此感到滿意。正如理查德所概述的那樣，我們正在考慮有多少槓桿可以與我們的比率目標和可用資本相抵觸。

But going into the year-end, it's one feature that may impact the market that unlike the previous years, the U.S. banks may be less generous with their leverage balance sheet. Right now, I'll defer to Richard on whether we're really building that into issuance plans for next year. But we're waiting to see what the impact is over year-end.

但到了年底，可能會影響市場的一個特徵是，與前幾年不同，美國銀行的槓桿資產負債表可能不那麼慷慨了。現在，關於我們是否真的將其納入明年的發行計劃，我將聽從 Richard 的意見。但我們正在等著看年底會有什麼影響。

Yes. Thanks, James. So I think there's a few things in there on your questions. So maybe I'll start with your spreads being -- or your [observations on] spreads being too wide, and we concur with that assessment. One of our strategic objectives is to align to have consistency across the rating agency spectrum.

是的。謝謝，詹姆斯。所以我認為你的問題有一些內容。所以也許我會從你的點差開始——或者你的[觀察]點差太寬，我們同意這個評估。我們的戰略目標之一是在評級機構範圍內保持一致。

We're obviously seeing that positive movement in Moody's and Fitch, we think, is going in the same direction. But I think there's sort of discrepancy with those 2 and S&P is one of the things holding us back a little bit. So we continue to work with S&P to make our case. But ultimately, we just have to keep following through on what we've been doing, which is just execution on that transformation, building organic capital, and that gives you the equity buffer and that will be positive for the debt stack.

我們認為，我們顯然看到穆迪和惠譽的積極走勢正朝著同一個方向發展。但我認為這兩者之間存在某種差異，而標準普爾是讓我們有點退縮的因素之一。因此，我們將繼續與標準普爾合作以證明我們的觀點。但最終，我們只需要繼續堅持我們一直在做的事情，這只是執行轉型，建立有機資本，這會給你提供股權緩衝，這將對債務堆棧產生積極影響。

So obviously, that's kind of what we have to do, but that's kind of the sort of levers that we're pulling, and I think just the strategy is working. And so we're seeing that kind of organic capital continues to be built. So I think I'll start with that. And therefore, I think we are seeing the same sort of effects that our U.S. peers are seeing in terms of client demand for the balance sheet.

所以很明顯，這就是我們必須做的，但這是我們正在拉動的那種槓桿，我認為只有策略是有效的。因此，我們看到這種有機資本正在繼續建立。所以我想我會從那個開始。因此，我認為我們在客戶對資產負債表的需求方面看到了與美國同行相同的影響。

And so we obviously manage that carefully. We do target our LCR of a target of 130% and that will continue to be our target, which we'll manage through this quarter and subsequent quarters. And I think we're doing a pretty good job of steering that. And I think we end up being quite balanced really in terms of that sort of incremental loan growth demand as well as being able to match that with stable funding.

因此，我們顯然會謹慎管理。我們確實將 LCR 定為 130% 的目標，這將繼續是我們的目標，我們將在本季度和隨後的幾個季度進行管理。我認為我們在這方面做得很好。而且我認為我們最終在這種增量貸款增長需求以及能夠與穩定資金相匹配方面非常平衡。

So I think when you look at the issuance plan, I guess, it's on Slide 13 of the materials. And then you can see a pretty consistent picture for this year, next year in the outer years, but we're not looking to do anything outside on the issuance side. And as to your point, at these kind of levels, then -- it's something we have to be very mindful of in terms of where we want to be pursuing this issuance plan unless internally, we can generate returns to justify that.

因此，我認為當您查看發行計劃時，我猜它在材料的幻燈片 13 上。然後你可以看到今年和明年在外部年份的一致情況，但我們不打算在發行方面做任何事情。至於你的觀點，在這種水平上，我們必須非常注意我們想要在哪裡推行這個發行計劃，除非在內部，我們可以產生回報來證明這一點。

That's great. I appreciate the thoroughness.

那太棒了。我很欣賞這種徹底性。

So there are no further questions at this time, and I hand back to Philip Teuchner for closing comments.

因此，目前沒有其他問題，我請 Philip Teuchner 結束評論。

Thank you, Natalie. And just to finish up, thank you all for joining us today. You know where the IR team is, if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you soon again. Goodbye .

謝謝你，娜塔莉。最後，感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您有任何其他問題，您知道 IR 團隊在哪裡，我們期待很快再次與您交談。再見 。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Good bye.

女士們，先生們，會議到此結束，你們可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的加入，祝您有愉快的一天。再見。