Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Q2 2022 Fixed Income Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎並感謝您參加 2022 年第二季度固定收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Philip Teuchner, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係部的 Philip Teuchner。請繼續。

Good afternoon or good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. On the call, our Group Treasurer, Dixit Joshi, will take us through some fixed income-specific topics. For the subsequent Q&A session, we also have our CFO, James von Moltke, with us to answer your questions.

下午好或早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們。在電話會議上，我們的集團財務主管 Dixit Joshi 將帶我們了解一些特定於固定收益的話題。在隨後的問答環節中，我們的首席財務官 James von Moltke 也將與我們一起回答您的問題。

The slides that accompany the topics are available for download from our website at db.com. After the presentation, we'll be happy to take your questions. But before we get started, I just want to remind you that the presentation may contain forward-looking statements, which may not develop as we currently expect. Therefore, please take note of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials. With that, let me hand over to Dixit.

可從我們的網站 db.com 下載這些主題隨附的幻燈片。演講結束後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。但在我們開始之前，我只想提醒您，演示文稿可能包含前瞻性陳述，可能不會像我們目前預期的那樣發展。因此，請注意我們材料末尾的預防警告。有了這個，讓我交給迪克西特。

Thank you, Philip, and welcome from me. It is a pleasure to be discussing our second quarter and first half 2022 results with you today.

謝謝你，菲利普，歡迎我。很高興今天與您討論我們 2022 年第二季度和上半年的業績。

Since the end of the first quarter, conditions for the global economy and the macro environment have become more challenging. The pressures will impact our 2022 cost-income ratio target. We are continuing to work towards our return on tangible equity targets for both the group, and the core bank even though the path ahead of us is more challenging.

一季度末以來，全球經濟形勢和宏觀環境變得更加嚴峻。這些壓力將影響我們 2022 年的成本收入比目標。我們將繼續努力實現集團和核心銀行的有形股本回報目標，儘管我們面前的道路更具挑戰性。

Nonetheless, despite an unprecedented operating environment, we are transforming our bank and once again have proven our resilience. We delivered group revenues of EUR 14 billion for the first half of 2022, an increase of 4% year-on-year. We generated an 8% return on tangible equity, up from 6.5% in the first 6 months of 2021. We also improved our profitability and efficiency. First half post-tax profit of EUR 2.4 billion was up 31% year-on-year driven by positive operating leverage. Our cost income ratio was 73% for the first 6 months, 5 percentage points lower than the comparable period last year.

儘管如此，儘管經營環境前所未有，但我們正在改造我們的銀行，並再次證明了我們的韌性。我們在 2022 年上半年實現了 140 億歐元的集團收入，同比增長 4%。我們的有形股本回報率為 8%，高於 2021 年前 6 個月的 6.5%。我們還提高了盈利能力和效率。上半年稅後利潤為 24 億歐元，在積極經營槓桿的推動下同比增長 31%。前 6 個月成本收入率為 73%，比去年同期下降 5 個百分點。

Finally, we continue to adhere to prudent risk management principles and processes. Provision for credit losses was 22 basis points of average loans in the first 6 months, including a management overlay, reflecting elevated market uncertainty. Our capital position remains stable. We finished the second quarter up compared to the first quarter with a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 13%.

最後，我們繼續堅持審慎的風險管理原則和流程。前 6 個月的信貸損失準備金為平均貸款的 22 個基點，包括管理層疊加，反映出市場不確定性升高。我們的資本狀況保持穩定。與第一季度相比，我們第二季度的普通股一級資本比率為 13%。

Moving to Slide 2. In 2020, as the pandemic caught the market by surprise, we went through our balance sheet to explain why we felt we were well positioned to navigate through that environment. And while the current crisis presents different challenges and many unknowns, what has not changed is our loan book, which is low risk and well diversified nor have we changed our approach to risk management.

轉到幻燈片 2。在 2020 年，由於大流行令市場措手不及，我們通過資產負債表解釋了為什麼我們認為我們有能力在這種環境中導航。儘管當前的危機帶來了不同的挑戰和許多未知數，但沒有改變的是我們的低風險、多元化的貸款賬簿，我們也沒有改變我們的風險管理方法。

On the items we can control, we have always managed our balance sheet conservatively and intend to continue to do so through this period of volatility. And as the outlook evolves, we monitor the development of macroeconomic forecast and will update our allowances based on what we see in the environment and in our portfolios.

在我們可以控制的項目上，我們一直保守地管理我們的資產負債表，並打算在這段動盪時期繼續這樣做。隨著前景的發展，我們監控宏觀經濟預測的發展，並將根據我們在環境和投資組合中看到的情況更新我們的配額。

Moving to Slide 3. You can see that the momentum across our businesses, especially in the past 6 months supports the delivery of our 2022 plans at the divisional level. In the Corporate Bank, business growth continued despite the more challenging market as we diligently executed on our strategy. We saw this reflected in loan growth, which alongside interest rate tailwinds contributed to an increase in interest income. This led to a 10% return on tangible equity.

轉到幻燈片 3。您可以看到，我們業務的發展勢頭，尤其是在過去 6 個月中，支持我們在部門層面實施 2022 年計劃。在企業銀行方面，儘管市場更具挑戰性，但我們努力執行我們的戰略，業務繼續增長。我們看到這反映在貸款增長中，再加上利率的順風推動了利息收入的增加。這導致有形資產的回報率為 10%。

In the Investment Bank, our leading FIC franchise saw strong client activity with growth across both institutional and corporate clients, which marked the highest first half FIC revenues in 10 years. Despite the unfavorable environment for origination and advisory activities, M&A revenues were 65% higher year-on-year. All in, the Investment Bank delivered a return on tangible equity of 14%.

在投資銀行，我們領先的 FIC 特許經營看到強勁的客戶活動，機構和企業客戶均實現增長，這是 10 年來上半年 FIC 收入的最高水平。儘管發起和諮詢活動的環境不利，併購收入仍同比增長 65%。總而言之，投資銀行的有形股本回報率為 14%。

The Private Bank had strong half year results with a return on tangible equity above 9%. Asset Management delivered revenue growth of 6% year-on-year driven by higher management fees despite the volatile market environment. At the same time, the business continued to invest in growth initiatives, and platform transformation and delivered a 22% return on tangible equity.

私人銀行上半年業績強勁，有形資產回報率超過 9%。儘管市場環境波動，但資產管理公司的收入同比增長 6%，這是由於管理費用增加。與此同時，該業務繼續投資於增長計劃和平台轉型，並實現了 22% 的有形資產回報率。

Looking back at the progress of the core bank since the start of the transformation, we have improved profitability significantly. First half profit before tax of EUR 3.7 billion more than doubled compared to the same period in 2020.

回顧核心銀行轉型以來的進展，我們的盈利能力明顯提升。上半年稅前利潤為 37 億歐元，與 2020 年同期相比增長了一倍多。

Moving to Slide 4. We are encouraged by the performance in our core bank, which delivered a 10% return on tangible equity in the first half, up from 9.3% in 2021. On a pre-provision basis, we made significant progress on our profitability, as we diligently executed on our plans to make our divisions more focused, profitable and efficient. While we benefited from market volatility, this also created some offsetting effects visible through our corporate and other line.

轉到幻燈片 4。我們對核心銀行的表現感到鼓舞，上半年有形資產回報率為 10%，高於 2021 年的 9.3%。在預撥備的基礎上，我們在盈利能力，因為我們努力執行我們的計劃，使我們的部門更加專注、盈利和高效。雖然我們從市場波動中受益，但這也產生了一些通過我們的公司和其他產品線可見的抵消效應。

We are especially pleased to see the improvements in our stable businesses with Corporate Bank, Private Bank and Asset Management increasing the pre-provision profit contribution to 60%, while our investment bank continues to perform driven by our FIC franchise. We expect many of these trends to remain in place and to be beneficiaries of interest rate hikes in the coming years. Overall, with the core bank pre-provision profit of EUR 4.3 billion in the first half, the improved operating margins create a stronger protection from a tougher macroeconomic outlook.

我們特別高興地看到我們的穩定業務有所改善，企業銀行、私人銀行和資產管理將撥備前利潤貢獻提高到 60%，而我們的投資銀行繼續在我們的 FIC 特許經營權的推動下表現出色。我們預計其中許多趨勢將繼續存在，並成為未來幾年加息的受益者。總體而言，上半年核心銀行的撥備前利潤為 43 億歐元，經營利潤率的提高為更嚴峻的宏觀經濟前景提供了更強的保護。

Moving to Slide 5 to take you through our journey to deliver improved operating margins. In 2019, we introduced a new strategy, which included focused investments in our core businesses, particularly into technology and controls. This plan and these investments helped us to significantly increase our return on tangible equity from bringing negative territory just 2 years ago to 8%.

轉到幻燈片 5，帶您完成我們提高營業利潤率的旅程。 2019 年，我們推出了一項新戰略，其中包括重點投資於我們的核心業務，尤其是技術和控制。該計劃和這些投資幫助我們顯著提高了有形資產回報率，從僅 2 年前的負值增長到 8%。

However, the macroeconomic environment changed materially, resulting in headwinds which impacted some of our planned cost reductions most notably from inflation, higher compensation and foreign exchange, which are likely to stay with us for the balance of the year. And while the recent market volatility has been favorable for some of our businesses, we also saw offsets via the larger-than-expected drag from valuation and timing differences in C&O.

然而，宏觀經濟環境發生了重大變化，導致不利因素影響了我們計劃的一些成本削減，尤其是通貨膨脹、更高的薪酬和外匯，這些因素可能會在今年餘下時間繼續存在。雖然最近的市場波動對我們的一些業務有利，但我們也看到了估值和 C&O 時間差異帶來的大於預期的拖累。

Reflecting these items and using a conservative approach, achieving our cost income ratio for this year is no longer realistic without sacrificing long-term potential. Therefore, we have amended our cost-income ratio guidance for this year to the mid- to low 70s. However, we are executing on our plans. And considering the uncertain environment, we will work on additional measures to ease the pressures we are facing.

反映這些項目並使用保守的方法，在不犧牲長期潛力的情況下，實現我們今年的成本收入比不再現實。因此，我們將今年的成本收入比指引修改為 70 年代中低點。但是，我們正在執行我們的計劃。考慮到不確定的環境，我們將採取更多措施來緩解我們面臨的壓力。

Let us now look at topics that drive our revenue performance over the next slides. Slide 6 provides further details on the development in our loan and deposit books over the quarter. Loan growth across the bank has been EUR 12 billion or EUR 5 billion on an FX-adjusted basis. In line with prior quarters, we saw continued strong momentum from mortgages and collateralized lending in our private bank, high client demand in Corporate Bank as well as loan originations across our FIC financing and trading businesses.

現在讓我們看看在下一張幻燈片中推動我們收入表現的主題。幻燈片 6 提供了有關本季度貸款和存款賬簿發展的更多詳細信息。經外匯調整後，整個銀行的貸款增長為 120 億歐元或 50 億歐元。與前幾個季度一樣，我們看到私人銀行的抵押貸款和抵押貸款、企業銀行的高客戶需求以及我們的 FIC 融資和交易業務的貸款發放繼續保持強勁勢頭。

Loans in our leveraged debt business have remained flat quarter-on-quarter. Deposits grew by EUR 1 billion compared to the previous quarter when adjusting for FX. And given the macroeconomic environment, we expect this lower growth rate to continue. Deposit margins have started rising, in line with the improved interest rate environment.

我們的槓桿債務業務的貸款環比持平。經外匯調整後，存款與上一季度相比增加了 10 億歐元。鑑於宏觀經濟環境，我們預計這種較低的增長率將持續下去。隨著利率環境的改善，存款利差已開始上升。

Let me now provide some detail on the evolution of our net interest margin on Slide 7. As we flagged to you last quarter, our NIM has started to rise in large part due to the more favorable interest rate environment. The NIM increase was driven predominantly by short-term U.S. dollar interest rate rises in the first half of 2022, but it was also supported by higher longer-term euro rates that benefited the deposit books as we roll over hedge portfolios.

現在讓我在幻燈片 7 中提供一些關於我們的淨息差演變的細節。正如我們上個季度向您指出的那樣，我們的 NIM 在很大程度上由於更有利的利率環境而開始上升。 NIM 的增長主要受 2022 年上半年美元短期利率上升的推動，但也受到長期歐元利率上升的支撐，這有利於我們對沖投資組合展期時的存款賬簿。

The NIM increase was also driven by approximately 6 basis points in positive one-off effects as it still includes a 2 basis point effect from the minus 1% TLTRO bonus rate. Average interest-earning assets were up modestly, reflecting U.S. dollar strengthening and underlying loan growth offset by lower average cash balances.

NIM 的增長也受到約 6 個基點的正面一次性效應的推動，因為它仍然包括負 1% TLTRO 獎金利率的 2 個基點效應。平均生息資產小幅上升，反映出美元走強和基本貸款增長被較低的平均現金餘額所抵消。

Looking to 2025, we now expect the revenue benefit from interest rate curves relative to 2021 to be significantly higher than the EUR 2 billion we previously guided for. Even accounting for increased issuance costs implied by current credit spreads, the environment is more favorable than the outlook we shared with you at the March investor deep dive. Normalizing for the one-off effects just mentioned, we expect NIM will continue to rise due to the favorable interest rate environment.

展望 2025 年，我們現在預計相對於 2021 年的利率曲線帶來的收入收益將顯著高於我們之前指導的 20 億歐元。即使考慮到當前信用利差暗示的發行成本增加，環境也比我們在 3 月份投資者深度潛水時與您分享的前景更為有利。將剛才提到的一次性效應正常化，我們預計由於有利的利率環境，淨息差將繼續上升。

Let me now give you some additional details on net interest income sensitivity on Slide 8. Further increases in rates above current market implied levels will continue to add to the interest rate-driven tailwind. Over time, the largest impact is from long-end rates as we roll over our hedge portfolios to higher levels, particularly in euro.

現在讓我在幻燈片 8 上為您提供一些關於淨利息收入敏感性的更多細節。利率進一步上升至高於當前市場隱含水平將繼續增加利率驅動的順風。隨著時間的推移，最大的影響來自長期利率，因為我們將對沖投資組合展期至更高水平，尤其是歐元。

However, in the shorter term, rises in non-euro rates will also provide a tailwind. The interest rate tailwind, we had guided at roughly EUR 600 million for 2022 at the investor deep dive now stands at over EUR 700 million, albeit with partial offset due to higher issuance costs.

然而，在短期內，非歐元利率的上升也將提供順風。利率順風，我們在投資者深度潛水時指導的 2022 年約為 6 億歐元，現在超過 7 億歐元，儘管由於發行成本較高而部分抵消。

Moving to Slide 9, highlighting the development of our key liquidity metrics. Despite the increased market volatility, our liquidity and funding metrics remain robust and aligned with target levels. The stock of our high-quality liquid assets decreased by about EUR 6 billion during the second quarter. This is mainly due to continued loan growth.

轉到幻燈片 9，重點介紹我們關鍵流動性指標的發展。儘管市場波動加劇，但我們的流動性和融資指標仍然強勁並與目標水平保持一致。我們的優質流動資產存量在第二季度減少了約 60 億歐元。這主要是由於貸款的持續增長。

The deployment of liquidity was partially offset by further deposit inflows particularly driven by growth in the Private Bank, Germany. As a result, the liquidity coverage ratio slightly decreased by 2 percentage points to 133%. The surplus above minimum requirements decreased by about EUR 4 billion quarter-on-quarter to EUR 51 billion. In line with previous quarters, our daily average LCR over the past 3 months was at about 131% and underlines our proactive steering of the balance sheet towards target levels. While we remain committed to support the businesses, we continue to manage the LCR conservatively towards 130% for the remainder of 2022.

流動性的部署被進一步的存款流入所部分抵消，特別是德國私人銀行的增長推動的存款流入。因此，流動性覆蓋率小幅下降 2 個百分點至 133%。高於最低要求的盈餘環比減少約 40 億歐元至 510 億歐元。與前幾個季度一致，我們過去 3 個月的日均 LCR 約為 131%，突顯了我們積極引導資產負債表向目標水平邁進。儘管我們仍致力於支持業務，但我們將在 2022 年剩餘時間內繼續將 LCR 保守地管理至 130%。

The net stable funding ratio decreased to 116%, which is within our target range and with a surplus of EUR 83 billion, comfortably above the 100% requirement. The decline is mainly driven by loan growth as well as the roll down of TLTRO-III. Given current economics, we expect to repay our TLTRO funding at contractual maturity dates but continue to manage the maturity profile in order to avoid cliff effect.

淨穩定資金比率降至 116%，在我們的目標範圍內，盈餘 830 億歐元，遠高於 100% 的要求。下降的主要原因是貸款增長以及 TLTRO-III 的下降。鑑於當前的經濟狀況，我們預計在合同到期日償還我們的 TLTRO 資金，但繼續管理到期狀況以避免懸崖效應。

The longer-term funding sources for the bank remain well diversified and continue to benefit from a strong customer deposit base, which contributes about 2/3 to the group's available stable funding sources. For the remainder of the year, we aim to maintain this funding mix, which will be supplemented by debt maturities issued in line with our issuance plan.

銀行的長期資金來源保持多元化，並繼續受益於強大的客戶存款基礎，佔集團可用穩定資金來源的約2/3。在今年餘下的時間裡，我們的目標是維持這種資金組合，並輔以根據我們的發行計劃發行的到期債務。

Turning to capital on Slide 10. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio ended 14 basis points higher compared to the previous quarter at 13%, in line with our previous full year 2022 guidance. This ratio increase principally reflects high CET1 capital from strong organic capital generation during the quarter, net of deductions for dividend and additional Tier 1 coupon payments and losses in other comprehensive income. CET1 capital now includes a capital reduction for common share dividends of EUR 450 million for 2022. A 3 basis point drag on our CET1 ratio came from FX translation effects, reflecting the significant euro weakening over the quarter.

在幻燈片 10 上轉向資本。我們的普通股一級比率與上一季度相比高出 14 個基點，為 13%，與我們之前的 2022 年全年指導一致。這一比率上升主要反映了本季度強勁的有機資本產生帶來的高 CET1 資本，扣除股息和額外的一級票面支付以及其他綜合收益的損失。 CET1 資本現在包括 2022 年 4.5 億歐元普通股股息的資本減少。我們的 CET1 比率拖累 3 個基點來自外匯轉換效應，反映了本季度歐元的顯著疲軟。

Risk-weighted assets, net of FX were marginally down compared to last quarter. Market risk RWA increased principally from an increase in the quantitative VAR SVA multiplier. This increase was more than offset by a reduction in credit and operational risk RWA.

與上一季度相比，扣除外彙的風險加權資產略有下降。市場風險 RWA 的增加主要是由於定量 VAR SVA 乘數的增加。這一增長被信貸和操作風險風險加權資產的減少所抵消。

Our capital ratios remain well above regulatory requirements as shown on Slide 11. In line with the CET1 ratio development in the quarter, the distance of the CET1 ratio capital requirement has increased by 14 basis points and now stands at 253 basis points or EUR 9 billion of regulatory capital. Our available AT1 and Tier 2 capital is at or slightly above the respective regulatory requirements, which brings our total capital ratio distance to MDA to 261 basis points. This provides us with a comfortable starting point as we manage through the coming quarters.

如幻燈片 11 所示，我們的資本比率仍遠高於監管要求。與本季度 CET1 比率的發展一致，CET1 比率資本要求的距離增加了 14 個基點，目前為 253 個基點或 90 億歐元監管資本。我們可用的 AT1 和二級資本達到或略高於各自的監管要求，這使我們與 MDA 的總資本比率距離達到 261 個基點。這為我們在未來幾個季度的管理提供了一個舒適的起點。

Moving to Slide 12. Our leverage ratio, including ECB cash was 4.3%, a like-for-like increase of 5 basis points over the quarter. Higher Tier 1 capital from strong quarterly earnings and the recognition of our EUR 750 million AT1 issuance, which settled in early April added 10 basis point sale ratio. This was partially offset by a negative 3 basis point impact from FX translation effects reflecting the significant euro weakening in the quarter and a 2 basis point reduction from higher leverage exposure, including core bank growth. With our reported leverage ratio of 4.3% at the end of the quarter, we have a buffer of 131 basis points over our leverage ratio requirement of 3%.

轉到幻燈片 12。我們的槓桿率（包括歐洲央行現金）為 4.3%，比本季度同比增長 5 個基點。強勁的季度收益以及我們在 4 月初結算的 7.5 億歐元 AT1 發行的認可增加了一級資本，增加了 10 個基點的銷售比率。這被外匯換算效應帶來的 3 個基點的負面影響部分抵消，該影響反映了本季度歐元的顯著疲軟以及較高的槓桿敞口（包括核心銀行增長）導致的 2 個基點的減少。由於我們在本季度末報告的槓桿率為 4.3%，與我們 3% 的槓桿率要求相比，我們有 131 個基點的緩衝。

We continue to operate with a significant loss-absorbing capacity well above our requirements as shown on Slide 13. The MREL surplus, as our most binding constraint has remained stable at EUR 15 billion over the quarter. Increases in available MREL from new issuances were offset by the expected and previously advised increase in MREL requirements, which we received in May.

如幻燈片 13 所示，我們繼續以遠高於我們要求的顯著損失吸收能力運營。作為我們最具約束力的限制因素，MREL 盈餘在本季度保持穩定在 150 億歐元。新發行的可用 MREL 增加被我們在 5 月收到的預期和先前建議的 MREL 要求增加所抵消。

Our loss-absorbing capacity buffer remains at a comfortable level and continues to provide us with the flexibility to pause issuing senior nonpreferred or senior preferred instruments for approximately 1 year.

我們的損失吸收能力緩衝保持在一個舒適的水平，並繼續為我們提供暫停發行高級非優先或高級優先工具約 1 年的靈活性。

Moving now to our issuance plan on Slide 14. The quarter was characterized by challenging market conditions in general with high levels of interest rate and credit spread volatility. In this context, we are pleased to have completed roughly 3 quarters of our issuance plan year-to-date. In the second quarter, we issued a total of EUR 4 billion spread across preferred, nonpreferred and covered issuances. During July, we issued a further $1.3 billion senior nonpreferred, taking our year-to-date total to just over EUR 14 billion. For the full year, our issuance plan remains between EUR 15 billion and EUR 20 billion, although we are likely to end the year closer to the upper end.

現在轉到幻燈片 14 上的發行計劃。本季度的特點是總體市場環境充滿挑戰，利率和信用利差波動性很高。在這種情況下，我們很高興今年迄今完成了大約 3 個季度的發行計劃。在第二季度，我們共發行了 40 億歐元，分佈在優先股、非優先股和備兌債券中。 7 月份，我們又發行了 13 億美元的高級非優先債券，使我們年初至今的總額略高於 140 億歐元。全年，我們的發行計劃仍保持在 150 億歐元至 200 億歐元之間，儘管我們可能會在年底接近上限。

Having completed a significant portion of our issuance plan for the year provides us flexibility in timing of new issuances and also helps to manage our overall cost of funding. You may have seen that we announced an up to $1 billion tender offer for 4 dollar-denominated senior nonpreferred securities yesterday. We do not expect the need to replace the repurchase securities and senior nonpreferred format but may consider senior preferred issuances depending upon liquidity needs.

完成了我們今年發行計劃的很大一部分，為我們提供了新發行時間的靈活性，也有助於管理我們的總體融資成本。您可能已經看到，我們昨天宣布了一項高達 10 億美元的要約收購 4 美元計價的高級非優先證券。我們預計不需要更換回購證券和優先非優先形式，但可能會根據流動性需求考慮優先發行。

The public tender offer is designed to proactively manage our debt maturity profile and to provide liquidity to bond investors. We have received several questions regarding our approach to calling capital securities in general and in particular, regarding a Tier 2 deal that was issued prior to 27 June 2019. The requirement for Tier 2 instruments to include bail-in language was introduced with the change to Article 63 of the CRR in June 2019.

公開收購要約旨在主動管理我們的債務到期狀況，並為債券投資者提供流動性。我們收到了幾個關於我們調用資本證券的一般方法的問題，特別是關於 2019 年 6 月 27 日之前發行的二級交易的問題。隨著對二級工具的更改引入了包含自救語言的要求2019 年 6 月 CRR 第 63 條。

The instrument under discussion was issued in 2013 and already included bail-in language meeting the CRR requirements. The instrument will thus continue to be eligible as Tier 2 regulatory capital beyond June 28, 2025, and until its legal maturity. Further requirements for bail-in language as provided for in Article 55 of the BRRD are not applicable given the instrument was issued before the date of transposition of the BRRD into German law on January 1, 2015. This has been confirmed by recent guidance from the SRB.

討論中的文書於 2013 年發布，已包含符合 CRR 要求的自救語言。因此，在 2025 年 6 月 28 日之後，該工具將繼續有資格作為二級監管資本，直至其法定期限。 BRRD 第 55 條中對自救語言的進一步要求不適用，因為該文書是在 2015 年 1 月 1 日將 BRRD 轉換為德國法律的日期之前發布的。這一點已在最近的指導中得到證實。 SRB。

Turning to the outlook on Slide 15. The strong performance in the core bank is testament to the quality of our businesses and the strength of the franchise despite the challenges ahead. Therefore, we can confirm our revenue guidance of EUR 26 billion to EUR 27 billion for 2022. However, the current environment and uncertainty are unprecedented, and we see pressures, including on expenses and credit costs. We remain committed to our cost measures, and we will continue to execute on our 2022 plan.

轉向幻燈片 15 的前景。儘管面臨挑戰，核心銀行的強勁表現證明了我們的業務質量和特許經營的實力。因此，我們可以確認 2022 年 260 億歐元至 270 億歐元的收入指導。但是，當前的環境和不確定性是前所未有的，我們看到了壓力，包括費用和信貸成本。我們仍然致力於我們的成本措施，我們將繼續執行我們的 2022 計劃。

Consistent with our previous guidance, our provision for credit losses remains at around 25 basis points of average loans, including the currently expected impact of the war in Ukraine, slowing growth in our core markets and other dislocations. We remain confident in our full year CET1 ratio target of greater than 12.5%. On the issuance side, we are happy having issued a substantial amount of our plan already in the first half of the year, which protects us to some degree against higher funding costs.

與我們之前的指導一致，我們的信貸損失準備金仍保持在平均貸款的 25 個基點左右，包括目前預期的烏克蘭戰爭影響、我們的核心市場增長放緩和其他混亂。我們對超過 12.5% 的全年 CET1 比率目標仍然充滿信心。在發行方面，我們很高興在今年上半年已經發行了大量的計劃，這在一定程度上保護了我們免受更高的融資成本的影響。

In addition, we had some positive news from the rating agency side in the quarter with Scope upgrading our ratings while DBRS Morningstar raised the outlook to positive, an encouraging signal especially in the current environment. We will remain in close dialogue with our ratings agencies as we feel we still have potential catch up on a relative basis.

此外，我們在本季度從評級機構方面獲得了一些積極消息，Scope 上調了我們的評級，而 DBRS Morningstar 將前景上調至正面，這是一個令人鼓舞的信號，尤其是在當前環境下。我們將與我們的評級機構保持密切對話，因為我們認為我們仍有可能在相對基礎上趕上。

With that, we look forward to your questions.

有了這個，我們期待您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Before we go to the first question, let me hand over to James for a couple of remarks.

（操作員說明）在我們回答第一個問題之前，讓我請詹姆斯說幾句。

I think that was from prior call instructions. So over to Q&A right away.

我認為這是來自先前的通話說明。所以馬上進行問答。

The first question is from the line of Richard Thomas from Bank of America.

第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Richard Thomas。

I've got 3 tricky questions, if I may. The first one is about the bond of my favorite coupon, the 4.296%. I have -- actually, I remember discussing with the team before, and what you've said today in the call is consistent with what they've said to me in the past about the bail-in language.

如果可以的話，我有 3 個棘手的問題。第一個是關於我最喜歡的息票債券，即 4.296%。我有 - 實際上，我記得之前與團隊討論過，你今天在電話中所說的話與他們過去對我所說的關於保釋語言的說法是一致的。

But I have to say I've always thought that language was a bit -- a bit weak, satisfy the CRR and the BRRD. So in the context of this language not being, let's say of the strongest, in my view, what's your current thinking? Would it be better in a perfect world if you just called it next year?

但我不得不說，我一直認為語言有點——有點弱，滿足 CRR 和 BRRD。所以在這種語言不存在的情況下，讓我們說最強，在我看來，你目前的想法是什麼？如果你明年直接調用它，在一個完美的世界裡會更好嗎？

Second question, if I may, and you did refer to a little bit about this. What's your outlook in terms of the rating evolution? Do you expect something could happen to your ratings as early as this year?

第二個問題，如果可以的話，你確實提到了一點。您對評級演變有何展望？你預計你的收視率最早會在今年發生變化嗎？

And then finally, this tender offer announced last night, what is that all about? Why are you doing that now? You've given the generic things about liquidity and so on, but why that tender offer now and why those bonds?

最後，昨晚宣布的要約收購，到底是怎麼回事？你為什麼現在這樣做？你已經給出了關於流動性等一般性的東西，但為什麼現在要進行要約收購以及為什麼要發行這些債券？

Richard, thank you for the questions, and thank you for joining and happy to address each of those.

理查德，感謝您的提問，感謝您的加入，並很高興為您解答每一個問題。

You're right to point out on the 4.296% Tier 2, it's one of the reasons why we wanted to address it in our prepared remarks just given some of the incoming questions that we had, had. And I think we're fairly clear and I'd like to just outline our thinking and the current treatment of those instruments.

您正確地指出了 4.296% 的第 2 級，這是我們想在我們準備好的評論中解決它的原因之一，只是考慮到我們收到的一些問題。我認為我們已經很清楚了，我想概述一下我們的想法和目前對這些工具的處理方式。

As I had highlighted in the prepared remarks, the BRRD requirements for bail-in language are not applicable to this instrument, to be clear. And the reason for that is the BRRD was transposed into German law, I think around January 2015, where this particular instrument was issued in 2013. And so that's fairly clear and has also been confirmed by recent guidance from the SRB.

正如我在準備好的評論中強調的那樣，BRRD 對自救語言的要求不適用於該文書，這是明確的。其原因是 BRRD 被轉換為德國法律，我認為是在 2015 年 1 月左右，該特定文書於 2013 年發布。所以這一點相當清楚，並且也得到了 SRB 最近的指導的證實。

And then separately but related, regarding the CRR requirements, on our DB Investor Relations home page, we published the prospectus supplement, which contains the bail-in language in the contractual provisions. The CRR doesn't provide further requirements on any additional bail-in language. So in our mind, it's fairly clear that the bail-in language included in the documentation does meet all of the requirements.

然後，關於 CRR 要求，我們單獨但相關地在我們的 DB 投資者關係主頁上發布了招股說明書補充，其中包含合同條款中的自救語言。 CRR 沒有對任何額外的自救語言提供進一步的要求。因此，在我們看來，很明顯，文檔中包含的自救語言確實滿足了所有要求。

On your second question regarding call, as you know, we wouldn't specifically comment on any upcoming call decision. But it's something that we'll continue to assess, of course, at every moment in time, looking at the regulatory treatment, the regulatory capital treatment. At this moment in time, we don't envisage any action on this bond. And again, that's something that we will reevaluate through time.

如您所知，關於您關於通話的第二個問題，我們不會具體評論任何即將到來的通話決定。但這是我們將繼續評估的東西，當然，每時每刻，著眼於監管處理，監管資本處理。目前，我們不打算對這種債券採取任何行動。再一次，這是我們將隨著時間的推移重新評估的東西。

On the second point, around credit ratings. We're confident that the progress we continue making on our transformation that you heard about from James and Christian on Wednesday, and specifically the progress around sustained improvement in our profitability that over time that this gets reflected in our ratings. The firm, of course, now is significantly different to a few years ago. Whether that's the way we run our balance sheet, the quality of the assets on the balance sheet, our liability profile and the improvements that we've made there to tilt the firm towards greater deposit funding, the drive towards higher NIM, greater NII and all of that then translating into capital accretion as well as capital return.

第二點，關於信用評級。我們相信，您在周三從詹姆斯和克里斯蒂安那裡聽到的我們在轉型方面繼續取得的進展，特別是隨著時間的推移，在我們的盈利能力持續改善方面取得的進展，這將反映在我們的評級中。當然，這家公司現在與幾年前有很大不同。無論是我們運行資產負債表的方式、資產負債表上資產的質量、我們的負債狀況，還是我們為使公司向更多存款資金傾斜、向更高淨息差、更大淨息差和然後，所有這些都轉化為資本增值和資本回報。

So the firm is just completely different from a few years ago. We do recognize, of course, that the macroeconomic environment is fairly uncertain right now and that is a factor. And in that light, the fact that Moody's and Fitch have both maintained their outlook in spite of this macro environment that we're living through, in my mind, indicates continued upward pressure on our ratings.

所以這家公司與幾年前完全不同。當然，我們確實承認，目前宏觀經濟環境相當不確定，這是一個因素。有鑑於此，在我看來，儘管我們正在經歷這種宏觀環境，穆迪和惠譽都維持了他們的展望，這表明我們的評級面臨持續的上行壓力。

Also to mention, the outlook revision by DBRS Morningstar from stable to positive as well as the rating upgrade by Scope in the second quarter, what that all shows you is that there is potential for positive ratings actions even in this macroeconomic environment.

另外值得一提的是，DBRS Morningstar 從穩定到正面的展望修正以及 Scope 在第二季度的評級上調，都表明即使在這種宏觀經濟環境下，也有可能採取積極的評級行動。

And then on the third point on the tender, I would say it's really business as usual. It's something that you've seen us do a few times before, looking at the market environment. We tended for certain dollar senior nonpreferred securities as we optimize our maturity profile, our maturity structure.

然後在招標的第三點上，我想說這真的是照常營業。從市場環境來看，你已經看到我們做過幾次了。當我們優化我們的期限概況和期限結構時，我們傾向於某些美元高級非優先證券。

We're also taking advantage of strong liquidity and MREL surpluses that we have as you see in the deck. As at the end of the second quarter, we had HQLA of over EUR 200 billion, an LTR of 133% and MREL surplus in the region of around EUR 15 billion.

正如您在甲板上看到的那樣，我們還利用了強大的流動性和 MREL 盈餘。截至第二季度末，我們的 HQLA 超過 2000 億歐元，LTR 為 133%，MREL 盈餘約為 150 億歐元。

So all of this affords us some flexibility in managing our liability profile. But also, quite frankly, the spread widening that we saw led us to believe that it is actually an opportune time to launch a transaction like this. We haven't done anything in euros, and we don't have anything planned today in euros. But that doesn't preclude us again from reacting to market conditions as we see them. I hope that's helpful, Richard.

因此，所有這些都為我們在管理我們的責任狀況方面提供了一些靈活性。而且，坦率地說，我們看到的價差擴大讓我們相信現在是發起這樣一筆交易的好時機。我們沒有用歐元做任何事情，我們今天也沒有用歐元做任何計劃。但這並不妨礙我們再次對我們所看到的市場狀況做出反應。我希望這會有所幫助，理查德。

Next question is from the line of Jackie Ineke from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Jackie Ineke。

I have 2 questions. The first one is again on the 4.296%. I must admit I wholeheartedly agree with Richard's comments on the language here. One thing perhaps on to add. You talked about the SRB and the SRB being effectively fine with this stuff. But I don't know if that also refers to the June 2022 guidance on bail-in playbooks that the SRB published. And it talks about looking at the strength of the contractual recognition in there and whether -- I guess you've looked at that as well, and you think it's robust enough to be able to be written down under EU rules even though it's New York or -- so that's the first question. Have you also kind of gone through that playbook guidance?

我有 2 個問題。第一個又是 4.296%。我必須承認我完全同意理查德對這里語言的評論。可能要補充一件事。你談到了 SRB 和 SRB 對這些東西實際上很好。但我不知道這是否也指的是 SRB 發布的 2022 年 6 月關於紓困劇本的指南。它談到了查看合同認可的強度以及是否 - 我想你也看過了，你認為它足夠強大，可以根據歐盟規則寫下來，即使它是紐約或者——這是第一個問題。你也經歷過那個劇本指導嗎？

The second question is a broader question on your legacies, the SPV issued legacies effectively, the CMS bonds. I was just wondering if you -- what the intentions might be there, if you are getting any kind of interest from the supervisors about what to do with those bonds obviously, tenders or possibly in the future. Just if you could give us any color about how you're thinking about those.

第二個問題是關於您的遺產的更廣泛的問題，SPV 有效地發行了遺產，CMS 債券。我只是想知道你是否 - 可能有什麼意圖，如果你從監管者那裡得到任何關於如何處理這些債券的興趣，投標或可能在未來。只是如果你能給我們任何關於你如何考慮這些的顏色。

Jackie, yes, on the first point, I think it's, to us, fairly clear that we've been through the documentation. We've ensured that it has the respective bail-in language. And important, again, as I was commenting on, really looking at compliance with both the BRRD as well as the CRR. And we're fairly clear that it includes the necessary bail-in language and haven't heard anything to the contrary. Again, the Investor Relations team is on hand if we wanted to discuss it a bit further, but that certainly is the case for us.

Jackie，是的，在第一點上，我認為對我們來說，很清楚我們已經閱讀了文檔。我們已確保它具有相應的保釋語言。同樣重要的是，正如我評論的那樣，真正關注 BRRD 和 CRR 的合規性。而且我們相當清楚，它包括必要的保釋語言，並且沒有聽到任何相反的消息。同樣，如果我們想進一步討論，投資者關係團隊隨時待命，但對我們來說肯定是這樣。

On the other instruments, there really -- other than the economics that would drive call decisions, there really isn't any, quite frankly, supervisory or other push for us to call a tender at this stage. As you know, I always read an optionality to call instruments depending on the economics to the bank, but that's certainly not the case today. They represent fairly cheap funding for us. And so at this moment in time, instruments that will remain outstanding for us.

在其他工具上，除了推動招標決定的經濟因素之外，坦率地說，在現階段我們確實沒有任何監督或其他推動力來進行招標。如您所知，我總是讀到根據經濟情況向銀行調用工具的選擇權，但今天肯定不是這種情況。它們對我們來說代表著相當便宜的資金。所以在這個時刻，對我們來說仍然很出色的工具。

Okay. Great. Sorry, just one follow-up on the Tier 2 bond. I mean I guess we've seen a number of banks who have very similar language to that bond in their instruments. And they've been doing consent solicitations and exchanges to make them in their words, CRR2 compliant. So maybe they're just being belt in braces. But again, I guess what's happening in the market is developing over time. And I guess the SRB would not look at each individual bond of every bank. So you probably won't get any specific guidance from them. But is that possibly influencing how you're looking at some of these legacies when you see what other banks are doing with what looked like exactly the same kind of contractual concerns or the credential thing to do?

好的。偉大的。抱歉，只是對第 2 層債券的一項後續行動。我的意思是我猜我們已經看到許多銀行在他們的工具中使用與該債券非常相似的語言。他們一直在進行同意徵求和交流，以使他們用他們的話來說，符合 CRR2。所以也許他們只是被帶上牙套。但同樣，我猜市場上正在發生的事情正在隨著時間的推移而發展。而且我猜 SRB 不會查看每家銀行的每一個單獨的債券。所以你可能不會從他們那裡得到任何具體的指導。但是，當您看到其他銀行正在處理看起來完全相同的合同問題或證書問題時，這是否可能會影響您如何看待這些遺產？

Yes. Jackie, we've seen that as well. And I can't comment specifically on what other banks have done. But I would point to -- there are regional distinctions. So for example, in our case, the BRRD and when it went into German law might be different dates-wise and grandfathering-wise compared to other countries within the Eurozone. So from our perspective, while we can't speak to other banks, what we do know is that our bond was issued before 2015. The BRRD then came into effect in 2015, and the instruments embed the necessary bail-in language.

是的。傑基，我們也看到了。我無法具體評論其他銀行的做法。但我要指出——存在地區差異。例如，在我們的案例中，與歐元區其他國家相比，BRRD 及其進入德國法律的時間和日期可能不同。因此，從我們的角度來看，雖然我們無法與其他銀行交談，但我們所知道的是我們的債券是在 2015 年之前發行的。BRRD 於 2015 年生效，這些工具嵌入了必要的紓困語言。

Yes. I guess the other instruments, and I'm really focused on the CRR2 language, they also would potentially be grandfathered. But it seems these banks are acting in a very prudential manner because they accept that these instruments would not be able to be written down under EU law. So I guess they're taking all the practical issues into context as well and actually change in them. But I understand you can't comment on those. But, all right.

是的。我猜其他工具，我真的專注於 CRR2 語言，它們也有可能被繼承。但這些銀行似乎以非常謹慎的方式行事，因為他們接受這些工具將無法根據歐盟法律被記錄下來。所以我猜他們也把所有的實際問題都考慮到了背景中，並在其中發生了實際的變化。但我知道你不能對這些發表評論。但是，好吧。

Thank you, Jackie.

謝謝你，傑基。

Next question is from the line of Lee Street from Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的李街。

A couple for me, please. Firstly, just a simple one. On the dollar tender you said last night, you said that you wouldn't have to replace it, but you might replace it with preferred senior. Does that mean you're not going to show any more nonpreferred senior this year or just no more nonpreferred senior dollars? That's the first question.

請給我一對。首先，只是一個簡單的。在你昨晚說的美元招標上，你說你不必更換它，但你可以用首選的高級來代替它。這是否意味著您今年不會再展示任何非首選的高級人員，或者只是不再顯示非首選的高級人員？這是第一個問題。

And then 2 sort of -- more sort of strategic ones, I guess. Is it conceivable that you could see yourself involved in leading sort of large-scale M&A any point in the next, say, 6 to 12 months and/or is your current share price may be an impediment to that?

然後是兩種——我猜是更具戰略意義的。是否可以想像，在接下來的任何時候，比如 6 到 12 個月，您可以看到自己參與領導大規模的併購活動和/或您當前的股價是否可能成為阻礙？

And then almost on the other side of that, my question is, is it not highly attractive at the same time for you to be looking to do share buybacks given the share price and what your thoughts around that and the constraints? That would be my questions.

然後幾乎另一方面，我的問題是，考慮到股價以及您對此的想法和限制，您是否同時尋求進行股票回購不是很有吸引力？那將是我的問題。

Lee, thanks for joining. I'll take the first, and then James will likely address the second, too.

李，謝謝你的加入。我會選擇第一個，然後詹姆斯可能也會談到第二個。

On the dollar tender, look, it's $1 billion that we target through this tender. And we have an issuance plan for this year of EUR 15 billion to EUR 20 billion. And as I said, it's more likely that we get to the EUR 20 billion. We're done with around EUR 14 billion on the year. So to be honest, the $1 billion is, quite frankly, neither here or there in the scope of our full year issuance plan.

在美元招標中，看，我們通過這次招標的目標是 10 億美元。我們今年的發行計劃是 150 億至 200 億歐元。正如我所說，我們更有可能達到 200 億歐元。我們今年完成了大約 140 億歐元。所以說實話，坦率地說，這 10 億美元在我們全年發行計劃的範圍內既不存在也不存在。

Regarding replacements and so on, we don't tend to think of it as like-for-like replacements. We would look at the liquidity of those respective lines, the spreads that they're trading at, the type of investor feedback that we receive or we see in the marketplace and then separately, would continue with our issuance plan, including potentially prefund future years issuance into this year like we've done in previous years.

關於替換等，我們不傾向於將其視為同類替換。我們將查看這些各自產品線的流動性、它們交易的價差、我們收到或我們在市場上看到的投資者反饋類型，然後分別，將繼續我們的發行計劃，包括未來幾年的潛在預融資就像我們往年一樣，在今年發行。

So I would expect a combination of issuance in the remainder of the year, but it quite frankly does depend on the spread environment that we see. Again, having completed EUR 14 billion already, that puts us, I would say in an opportunistic position for the remainder of the year to be reactive to conditions.

因此，我預計今年剩餘時間會發行組合，但坦率地說，這確實取決於我們看到的價差環境。同樣，我們已經完成了 140 億歐元，這讓我們在今年餘下的時間里處於機會主義的位置，對條件做出反應。

And Lee, it's James. On the second 2 questions. Look, Chris and I have made public comments that we see the logic of M&A from sort of an industrial logic perspective and strategic value. But we can't comment and don't really have a sense of what form it will take, when it will take place.

李，是詹姆斯。關於第二個問題。看，克里斯和我已經公開評論說，我們從某種工業邏輯和戰略價值的角度來看待併購的邏輯。但我們無法發表評論，也不知道它將採取何種形式，何時發生。

And I think, again, we've been consistent on the efforts of the past several years have been helpful, I think, in preparing Deutsche Bank to be a participant in that whenever it does start to take place, as you say, kind of large scale.

而且我認為，再一次，我們在過去幾年的努力一直是有幫助的大規模。

The share price obviously has a big impact on the terms of trade. And so it's something we'd like to see improve. It's one of the ways that we can be prepared in addition to fixing our IT, our control environment and the other improvements that we've been working so hard on. So I think it's all part of a process that hopefully leads to good strategic moves in time.

股價顯然對交易條件有很大影響。所以這是我們希望看到的改進。除了修復我們的 IT、我們的控制環境和我們一直在努力進行的其他改進之外，這是我們可以準備的方法之一。所以我認為這都是一個過程的一部分，有望及時導致良好的戰略舉措。

On share buybacks, generally, we provided back at the investor deep dive some reasonably clear guidance on our capital distribution plans. And absolutely, share buybacks play a role in that. As you recall, we bought back about 300 this year. And over time, we'd like to continue to do that. We see the corporate finance value of buybacks as one element of our distribution plans. And that's something that we intend to continue over time.

在股票回購方面，一般而言，我們在投資者深入研究時就我們的資本分配計劃提供了一些合理明確的指導。絕對地，股票回購在其中發揮了作用。你還記得，我們今年回購了大約 300 個。隨著時間的推移，我們希望繼續這樣做。我們將回購的企業財務價值視為我們分配計劃的要素之一。這是我們打算隨著時間的推移繼續下去的事情。

(Operator Instructions) The next question is from the line of Robert Smalley from UBS Fixed Income.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 UBS Fixed Income 的 Robert Smalley。

A couple of questions. First, on the loan loss provision. Dixit, you mentioned 25 basis points going forward. At the same time, we continue to hear potential for very negative economic news in Germany. Maybe you could just talk a little bit about where you're coming up with 25 basis points and what you're looking for that might potentially change that? Number one.

幾個問題。一是關於貸款損失準備。 Dixit，你提到了 25 個基點。與此同時，我們繼續聽到德國可能出現非常負面的經濟消息。也許您可以稍微談談您將在哪裡提出 25 個基點以及您正在尋找的可能會改變這種情況的東西？第一。

Number two, on Page 25, this slide is a discussion on deposit repricing. You were very successful in charging for deposits in a negative rate environment. Now we're moving into positive rate environment. That's going to fall away. How are you managing that? And what are some of the puts and takes on that and impact on the NIM?

第二，在第 25 頁，這張幻燈片是關於存款重新定價的討論。您在負利率環境中收取存款非常成功。現在我們正在進入正利率環境。那會掉下來的。你是如何管理的？對 NIM 有何影響？

And then finally on the tender, just to sum it up, and I just want to see if I'm characterizing this correctly. You're not particularly happy where your spreads are because they don't reflect the fundamental progress of the bank. You have several issues that are trading significantly below par, which you may or may not have needs for. You can tender for them, accrete the difference to par, which is a benefit but take some excess debt out of the system. And hopefully, there will be a positive spread impact. You have done this before, I believe in 2019 and 2018. Were the circumstances about the same as they are now? And have I characterized it correctly? And is there anything more than that?

最後在招標上，總結一下，我只是想看看我是否正確地描述了這一點。你對你的點差不是特別滿意，因為它們沒有反映銀行的基本進展。您有幾個問題的交易價格大大低於標準，您可能需要也可能不需要。您可以為他們投標，將差額增加到面值，這是一項好處，但可以從系統中扣除一些多餘的債務。希望會產生積極的傳播影響。 2019年和2018年你都做過，現在的情況和現在差不多嗎？我是否正確地描述了它？還有什麼比這更多的嗎？

So Robert, it's James. Thanks for your questions. I'll take the first and Dixit will take the second 2.

所以羅伯特，是詹姆斯。感謝您的提問。我會拿第一個，Dixit 會拿第二個 2。

So look, the outlook -- what we have booked so far this year and the 25 basis point outlook for the full year reflects management's best estimate of that charge, the credit costs for 2022 based on everything we see sort of at the moment, including a management overlay we've taken actually in both the first and the second quarters, recognizing that the economic environment was deteriorating.

所以看，前景——我們今年迄今為止的預訂以及全年 25 個基點的前景反映了管理層對該費用的最佳估計，即基於我們目前所看到的一切的 2022 年信貸成本，包括我們實際上在第一季度和第二季度都進行了管理覆蓋，認識到經濟環境正在惡化。

So you should think of the 25 basis points as what we would expect in the status quo, including a deterioration in the back half of the year. It reflects very strong credit going into this environment, and that's absolutely what we see in the portfolio.

因此，您應該將 25 個基點視為我們對現狀的預期，包括下半年的惡化。它反映了進入這種環境的非常強大的信用，這絕對是我們在投資組合中看到的。

We did provide a scenario -- disclosure on a scenario. And in order for that scenario to take place, you'd have to have seen sort of a full cutoff of gas supplies to Germany and a rapidly deteriorating environment quickly on the heels of that. And that is simply not what we see. So it is a scenario to help investors sort of gauge the sensitivity, but it's not what we see today.

我們確實提供了一個場景——披露一個場景。為了讓這種情況發生，你必須看到對德國的天然氣供應完全切斷，然後環境迅速惡化。這根本不是我們所看到的。因此，這是一種幫助投資者衡量敏感性的情景，但這不是我們今天所看到的。

The 25 basis point outlook would sort of suggest we're going to book over 300 per quarter for the next 2 quarters. And given the run rates and sort of what we've seen in recent months and quarters in the portfolio, we think actually that would be a reasonably conservative level of CLP to book in the balance of the year, again given everything we see as of today.

25 個基點的前景表明我們將在接下來的兩個季度每季度預訂超過 300 個。考慮到我們最近幾個月和幾個季度在投資組合中看到的運行率和種類，我們認為實際上這將是一個合理保守的 CLP 水平，可以在今年的餘額中預訂，再次考慮到我們所看到的一切今天。

Rob, this is Dixit. On the second 2, on deposit charging, you're right. Look, we've had a good result, including on an annualized rate basis this year through both the Corporate Bank and the Private Bank and the initiatives they have launched around charging over the last few years.

羅布，這是迪克西特。在第二個 2，關於押金收費，你是對的。看，我們取得了不錯的成績，包括今年通過企業銀行和私人銀行以及他們在過去幾年圍繞收費發起的舉措以年化利率為基礎。

That, of course, dissipates now with higher rates and going through the zero-bound. As we go through the zero-bound in euros, there will tend to be some anomalies in terms of pricing, in terms of NIM compression, but margins then expand as rates go through 0.

當然，現在隨著利率的提高和零界限的消散。當我們經歷歐元的零界限時，在定價方面，在 NIM 壓縮方面往往會出現一些異常，但隨著利率達到 0，利潤率會擴大。

On the tender, I think your characterization is a fair one. Look, we would be reactive to where we saw a combination of much higher spreads than we think is fair or warranted, or where we thought there was an adequate liquidity or where we'd received investor feedback. And so again, we want to be as opportunistic as we can around it. As you said, with 2016, '18, '20, we'd looked at the significant widening in spreads. We thought that in dollars compared to euros that we were perhaps wider than we thought we should be. And so this over time should also lead and act as a catalyst for some spread tightening as well on our curves.

在招標中，我認為你的描述是公平的。看，我們會對我們看到比我們認為公平或合理的點差高得多的組合，或者我們認為有足夠的流動性或我們收到投資者反饋的地方做出反應。同樣，我們希望盡可能地投機取巧。正如您所說，在 2016 年、'18 年、'20 年，我們看到了價差的顯著擴大。我們認為美元與歐元相比，我們可能比我們認為的要寬。因此，隨著時間的推移，這也應該在我們的曲線上導致並充當一些利差收緊的催化劑。

Next question is from the line of Daniel David from Autonomous.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Daniel David。

Thanks for taking my call -- sorry questions, I have 3. The first one is just on regulatory headwinds. I think there's been talk of 10 bps from model reviews in H2, but I'm more focused on 2023. Is there any risk of further headwinds from model reviews in '23? Or is there any capital headwinds that we should be watching out for?

感謝您接聽我的電話——抱歉，我有 3 個問題。第一個問題只是在監管方面遇到阻力。我認為在下半年的模型審查中有 10 個基點的說法，但我更關注 2023 年。23 年的模型審查是否有進一步逆風的風險？還是我們應該注意任何資本逆風？

The second one is just on the loan book growth, which we've seen in Q2. I know there's some FX impact, but did the EUR 4 billion of lumpy exposure drop out? And if you could give us some guidance as to where the lending can be attributed to, so CRE, ABS or leveraged finance, that would be really helpful.

第二個是我們在第二季度看到的貸款賬簿增長。我知道有一些外匯影響，但 40 億歐元的大宗風險敞口有沒有減少？如果你能給我們一些關於貸款歸屬的指導，比如 CRE、ABS 或槓桿融資，那將非常有幫助。

And then finally, just a bit more of a broad question. I think we've seen some noise in the German press that banks should shoulder some of the macro pain at the moment either via bank taxes or the SRF fund. Just interested to hear your views on whether you think that's likely in Germany or something that you're concerned about going forward?

最後，只是一個更廣泛的問題。我認為我們在德國媒體上看到了一些噪音，即銀行目前應該通過銀行稅或 SRF 基金來承擔一些宏觀痛苦。只是想听聽您對德國是否有可能發生這種情況或您擔心未來的事情的看法？

Sure. Daniel, I'll take the first one and James will do the last.

當然。丹尼爾，我會拿第一個，詹姆斯會做最後一個。

On the regulatory headwinds, that's right. We saw 10 basis points. We think this 10 basis points between now and the end of the year, likely in Q3. For '23, I think that's a little too early to provide an outlook there. There's always some risk, as you know. And we do have model reviews and regulatory items from time to time. They do shift between the quarters. And to the extent we have some transparency, we try and provide that as early as we can, like we've done in previous quarters.

在監管逆風中，這是正確的。我們看到了 10 個基點。我們認為從現在到年底這 10 個基點，可能在第三季度。對於 23 年，我認為現在提供前景還為時過早。如您所知，總會有一些風險。我們確實不時進行模型審查和監管項目。他們確實在宿舍之間轉移。在我們有一定透明度的情況下，我們會盡可能早地提供，就像我們在前幾個季度所做的那樣。

Regarding the loan book, we saw in the region of EUR 12 billion of growth on a reported basis. ex-FX and some hedge accounting effects that was probably in the region of around EUR 8 billion. Within that, as you pointed out, one of the episodic items in the region of around EUR 3 billion, EUR 4 billion did actually drop out. But our investment bank grew on an ex-FX basis loans by about EUR 2 billion. That was really across all the major lending businesses that we had.

關於貸款賬簿，我們在報告的基礎上看到了 120 億歐元的增長。 ex-FX 和一些對沖會計影響可能在 80 億歐元左右。正如您所指出的那樣，其中一個大約 30 億歐元的偶發項目，實際上有 40 億歐元退出了。但我們的投資銀行在外匯基礎上的貸款增加了約 20 億歐元。這確實適用於我們擁有的所有主要貸款業務。

In the leverage at capital markets businesses, loans were fairly flat. And we'd expect loan growth over the next 2 quarters in the IB to stabilize perhaps slightly higher in the second half of '22.

在資本市場業務的槓桿率方面，貸款相當平穩。我們預計 IB 未來兩個季度的貸款增長將在 22 年下半年企穩，可能略高。

In the corporate bank, we saw about [EUR] 1 billion of loan growth, again, excluding FX. And this was predominantly in trade finance as well as in lending. And the Private Bank grew loans primarily in mortgages. And in the International Private Bank, we grew about EUR 4 billion ex-FX. So what you're seeing is really loan growth on an ex-FX basis at a pace that you've seen in previous quarters. And that's what we're planning for, for the next 2 quarters as well.

在企業銀行，我們再次看到了約 [歐元] 10 億歐元的貸款增長，不包括外匯。這主要是在貿易融資和貸款方面。私人銀行主要以抵押貸款的形式增加貸款。在國際私人銀行，我們的外匯前增長約為 40 億歐元。因此，您所看到的實際上是以前幾個季度所見的速度在外匯基礎上的貸款增長。這就是我們計劃在接下來的兩個季度中的計劃。

So Daniel, I'll take the last question about macro pain. Look, I guess the first thing is some of these actions around Europe have been sort of characterized as sort of excise taxes or windfall profit taxes. And my own view is that with the German banking sector struggling to earn its cost of capital we're not yet -- in fact, we're far away from a point where there's a social argument to take excess profits out of one industry sector and try to redistribute the value to ease the social pain.

所以丹尼爾，我會回答最後一個關於宏觀疼痛的問題。看，我想第一件事是歐洲各地的一些行動被描述為某種消費稅或暴利稅。我自己的觀點是，在德國銀行業努力賺取資本成本的情況下，我們還沒有——事實上，我們離社會爭論的點還很遠，即從一個行業部門中提取超額利潤並嘗試重新分配價值以緩解社會痛苦。

We understand the social pain. We feel, I think very strong obligation especially in our home market but all around the world to be a positive part of society, specifically as our communities address some of the challenges around. I think the best policy response, frankly, is to let the banking sector do what it's here for, to intermediate lending into the economy to support clients as we go through a difficult time potentially. And certainly, that's our goal to do, if you like in the ordinary course without the need for other redistributive policies.

我們理解社會的痛苦。我們覺得，我認為非常有義務成為社會積極的一部分，尤其是在我們的本土市場，但在世界各地，特別是當我們的社區應對周圍的一些挑戰時。坦率地說，我認為最好的政策反應是讓銀行業做它應該做的事情，在我們潛在地度過困難時期時向經濟中提供中間貸款以支持客戶。當然，這是我們的目標，如果您喜歡在普通課程中不需要其他再分配政策。

Next question is from the line of Jeremy Sigee from BNP Paribas Exane.

下一個問題來自 BNP Paribas Exane 的 Jeremy Sigee。

On the NII benefit from rising rates, I noticed you used slightly different language. I think James, on the equity call the other day, you talked about high 2s benefit. Dixit today said significantly higher than 2. I'm kind of assuming you mean the same thing rather than Dixit being more cautious about issuance costs. But I thought I'd just let you comment on that.

關於利率上升帶來的 NII 收益，我注意到您使用的語言略有不同。我認為詹姆斯，在前幾天的股權電話會議上，你談到了高 2s 收益。 Dixit 今天說的遠高於 2。我有點假設你的意思是一樣的，而不是 Dixit 對發行成本更加謹慎。但我想我會讓你對此發表評論。

And then secondly, sort of carryover from the other day. You previously -- when it was EUR 1.5 billion benefit, you gave divisional split and it was roughly split 50-50 between the Corporate Bank and the Private Bank. And so I just wanted to check if the larger amount, roughly double that now is still a 50-50 split between the 2 or whether the benefit is more skewed to one or other division.

其次，從前一天遺留下來的東西。您之前 - 當它是 15 億歐元的福利時，您進行了部門拆分，企業銀行和私人銀行之間大致拆分為 50-50。所以我只是想檢查一下更大的數量，大約是現在的兩倍，兩者之間的比例仍然是 50-50，或者收益是否更偏向於一個或其他部門。

Sure, Jeremy. Yes, let me try and address that. And I think we are consistent with what James has said and what we'd indicated at the IDD in March. Now in March, you remember, we estimated about EUR 1.5 billion from interest rate tailwind in 2025. As you said, roughly half and half between CB and PB with a smaller contribution from the investment bank.

當然，傑里米。是的，讓我試著解決這個問題。我認為我們與詹姆斯所說的以及我們在 3 月份在 IDD 上所表明的一致。您還記得，現在 3 月，我們估計 2025 年利率順風帶來的收益約為 15 億歐元。正如您所說，大約一半在 CB 和 PB 之間，投資銀行的貢獻較小。

Since then, of course, the interest rate environments become much more supportive to future revenues. And again, we see that significantly above EUR 2 billion in 2025. But at the same time, we also see increased funding costs as a result of current market spreads that we're seeing.

當然，從那時起，利率環境對未來收入的支持性更強。我們再次看到，到 2025 年，這一數字將大大超過 20 億歐元。但與此同時，我們也看到，由於當前的市場價差，融資成本有所增加。

And the point we wanted to make was even when you're looking at just the low interest rate tailwind less the increased funding costs, minus TLTRO effects, which TLTRO, of course, contractually then drops away before you get to 2025, what we're seeing is this is still supportive of revenues in 2025. And we think that delta between March and now on a net basis, adjusting for all of these effects is in the region to a rounded EUR 1 billion. Hope that's helpful.

我們想要說明的一點是，即使你只考慮低利率順風，減去增加的融資成本，減去 TLTRO 效應，當然，TLTRO 在你到 2025 年之前就會按照合同消失，我們的重新看到的是，這仍然支持 2025 年的收入。我們認為，從 3 月到現在，按淨額計算，調整所有這些影響後，該地區的增量約為 10 億歐元。希望這會有所幫助。

And on your second question around the likely business mix, that's right. It's tilted slightly now in the higher rate environment. It's stilted slightly now towards the PB as opposed to the corporate bank. I hope that's helpful.

關於可能的業務組合的第二個問題，這是正確的。現在在較高利率的環境中略有傾斜。與公司銀行相反，它現在略微偏向 PB。我希望這會有所幫助。

Next question is from the line of James Hyde from PGIM Fixed Income.

下一個問題來自 PGIM Fixed Income 的 James Hyde。

Thanks for doing this call. I was -- I wanted to take Robert Smalley's question on the scenario, the gas shutoff scenario that they act further. I just wondered, this 20 bps impact that you see on the downside scenario, is that -- how top down or rather how bottom-up is that? I mean was this a sort of an economists put together top-down view? Or did you get feedback from the relationship officers and the credit people working with the big corporates in Germany? I just sort of see almost too little for that scenario. And I think you probably had that feeling from other questions on the call on Wednesday.

感謝您撥打這個電話。我是——我想回答羅伯特·斯莫利關於場景的問題，即他們進一步採取行動的燃氣關閉場景。我只是想知道，您在下行情景中看到的這 20 個基點的影響是——自上而下還是自下而上？我的意思是這是一種經濟學家自上而下的觀點？或者您是否從與德國大公司合作的關係官和信貸人員那裡得到反饋？對於這種情況，我幾乎看得太少了。我想你可能從周三電話會議上的其他問題中感受到了這種感覺。

And related to that, even you don't get full gas shutoff but you have some production interruptions, et cetera, do you see a pro-cyclicality impact already from this coming winter on the risk-weighted assets from even -- not from any of the -- even a milder scenario? That's it.

與此相關的是，即使你沒有完全關閉天然氣，但你有一些生產中斷，等等，你是否已經看到即將到來的冬天對風險加權資產的順週期性影響甚至——而不是任何的——甚至更溫和的情況？而已。

Sure. And it's James. I'll take the question. It's actually both top down and bottom up. We did a lot of work over a considerable period of time.

當然。這是詹姆斯。我會回答這個問題。它實際上是自上而下和自下而上的。我們在相當長的一段時間內做了很多工作。

So there are 3 elements of the analysis. One is shocking the macroeconomic variables, which we did. That drives Stage 1 and 2 provisions. And we sort of built that into our view.

所以有3個分析要素。一是令人震驚的宏觀經濟變量，我們做到了。這推動了第一階段和第二階段的規定。我們在某種程度上將其納入了我們的觀點。

The next thing we did was a sort of a broader base, if you like, ratings downgrade analysis in the industry sectors that we would judge to be most vulnerable, and that was sort of top-down. And then a bottoms-up view is what we took for to take an estimate of what the Stage 3 impairments would be over time. And there to your question, we went into those industry sectors, looked for potentially vulnerable areas and in essence, took a representative sample of potential defaults there. And that was quite granular work.

接下來我們做的是一種更廣泛的基礎，如果你願意的話，對我們認為最脆弱的行業進行評級下調分析，這是一種自上而下的方式。然後，我們採用自下而上的觀點來估計隨著時間的推移第 3 階段的損傷會是什麼。對於你的問題，我們進入了這些行業，尋找潛在的脆弱領域，從本質上講，在那裡抽取了具有代表性的潛在違約樣本。那是相當精細的工作。

So we feel very comfortable with that scenario analysis, as I say, both top down and bottoms up. We were encouraged as well with the output of that analysis. And as you may have heard from the comments that Christian offered on Wednesday, as we talk to clients, we're seeing a corporate sector going into a period of uncertainty, reasonably well prepared in terms of the liquidity, the order books they have and the actions that they're taking to protect themselves from this scenario as it develops.

因此，正如我所說，我們對這種情景分析感到非常滿意，無論是自上而下還是自下而上。該分析的輸出也使我們感到鼓舞。正如您可能從克里斯蒂安週三提供的評論中聽到的那樣，當我們與客戶交談時，我們看到企業部門進入了一段不確定時期，在流動性、他們擁有的訂單簿和隨著這種情況的發展，他們為保護自己免受這種情況的影響而採取的行動。

So we feel good about that work, and we also feel good about what we're seeing in the credit book if you like, in preparation.

因此，我們對這項工作感覺良好，如果您願意，我們也對我們在信用簿中看到的內容感覺良好，正在準備中。

The other thing to think here about is this scenario is not binary in the way that one might think. Time and the remedial actions that can be taken in the economy and the society help. And so it's very path dependent in terms of how severe that scenario might become.

這裡要考慮的另一件事是，這種情況並不是人們想像的那樣二元。時間和可以在經濟和社會中採取的補救措施會有所幫助。因此，就這種情況可能變得多麼嚴重而言，它非常依賴於路徑。

In terms of pro-cyclicality, not really yet. There was some to do with the war that we began to see in Q1 and into Q2 but relatively modest. Certainly, if the downside scenario started to manifest itself, you would see some of the pro-cyclical impact in capital, including the RWA impact from downgrades.

就順週期性而言，還沒有。我們在第一季度和第二季度開始看到的戰爭與戰爭有關，但相對溫和。當然，如果下行情景開始顯現，您會看到資本的一些順週期影響，包括降級帶來的風險加權資產影響。

We've already had some, whether it's prudent valuation or additional valuation adjustments as one example and market risk RWA increases as another example that have flown into the capital calculation as we speak. Generally, we would expect those to eventually normalize and revert.

我們已經有一些，無論是審慎估值還是額外的估值調整作為一個例子，市場風險 RWA 增加作為另一個例子，在我們說話時已經流入資本計算。一般來說，我們預計這些最終會正常化並恢復。

Exactly how that plays out, the timing is never certain, but we saw a similar pro-cyclical effect in the COVID crisis and then the release of that capital. Also, draws of liquidity facilities was another element that tended to increase the balance sheet and the associated risk-weighted assets over time. So we haven't seen that yet. And it's, of course, scenario and path dependent.

確切的結果如何，時間永遠不確定，但我們在 COVID 危機中看到了類似的順週期效應，然後是資本的釋放。此外，流動性工具的提取是另一個隨著時間推移往往會增加資產負債表和相關風險加權資產的因素。所以我們還沒有看到。當然，這取決於場景和路徑。

There are no further questions at this time, and I would like to hand back to Philip Teuchner for closing comments. Please go ahead.

目前沒有其他問題，我想交回 Philip Teuchner 結束評論。請繼續。

Thank you. And just to finish up, thank you all for joining us today. You know where the IR team is if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you soon again. Goodbye.

謝謝你。最後，感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您有任何其他問題，您知道 IR 團隊在哪裡，我們期待很快再次與您交談。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

女士們，先生們，會議到此結束，你們可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的加入，祝您有愉快的一天。再見。