Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Deutsche Bank Q3 2023 Fixed Income Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Philip Teuchner. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎並感謝您參加德意志銀行 2023 年第三季固定收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議轉交給 Philip Teuchner。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon or good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. On the call, our Group Treasurer, Richard Stewart, will take us through some fixed income-specific topics. For the subsequent Q&A session, we also have our CFO, James von Moltke, with us to answer your questions. The slides that accompany the topics are available for download from our website at db.com. After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions.

下午好或早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們。在電話會議上，我們的集團財務主管理查德·斯圖爾特（Richard Stewart）將向我們介紹一些固定收益特定主題。在隨後的問答環節中，我們的財務長 James von Moltke 也將與我們一起回答您的問題。主題隨附的投影片可從我們的網站 db.com 下載。演示結束後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

Before we get started, I just want to remind you that the presentation may contain forward-looking statements, which may not develop as we currently expect. Therefore, please take note of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，簡報中可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能不會按照我們目前的預期發展。因此，請注意我們材料末尾的預防警告。

With that, let me hand over to Richard.

接下來，讓我把任務交給理查。

Thank you, Philip, and welcome from me. It's a pleasure to be discussing our results with you today. We show continued progress on the path to our targets in several respects. Let me start with the key highlights of our resilient performance over the first 9 months on Slide 1.

謝謝你，菲利普，也歡迎我的到來。很高興今天與您討論我們的結果。我們在實現目標的道路上在多個方面不斷取得進展。讓我先在投影片 1 上介紹我們前 9 個月的彈性表現的主要亮點。

We delivered operating leverage of 4% on an adjusted basis with revenues up 6% and adjusted costs up 2%. As a result, our pre-provision profit for the first 9 months was up 5% year-on-year to EUR 6 billion. Our post-tax return on tangible equity was 7% and would have been nearly 9%, excluding nonoperating costs and with bank levies apportioned equally across the year. This reflects progress on our path to meet our 2025 target of above 10%.

調整後的營運槓桿率為 4%，營收成長 6%，調整後成本成長 2%。因此，我們前 9 個月的撥備前利潤年增 5%，達到 60 億歐元。我們的有形資產稅後回報率為 7%，如果不包括非營運成本以及全年平均分配的銀行稅，本應接近 9%。這反映出我們在實現 2025 年 10% 以上目標的道路上取得了進展。

In addition, we continue to reap the benefits of disciplined risk management and a high-quality loan book. Provision for credit losses for the first 9 months remained in line with our full year guidance at 28 basis points of average loans.

此外，我們繼續受益於嚴格的風險管理和高品質的貸款帳簿。前 9 個月的信貸損失撥備與我們的全年指引保持一致，為平均貸款的 28 個基點。

Let me now discuss the growth and balance across our business on Slide 2. The Corporate Bank delivered a post-tax return on tangible equity of 17% over the past 9 months. Strong revenue growth, combined with flat adjusted costs, driven by tight expense discipline, produced operating leverage of 24%. Our momentum with key clients is encouraging. We saw an increase of around 40% in incremental deals won with multinational corporate clients, which will drive future revenues.

現在讓我在投影片 2 上討論我們業務的成長和平衡。過去 9 個月，企業銀行的有形資產稅後回報率為 17%。強勁的收入成長，加上在嚴格的支出紀律的推動下調整後的成本持平，使得營運槓桿達到 24%。我們與主要客戶的合作勢頭令人鼓舞。我們看到與跨國企業客戶贏得的增量交易增加了約 40%，這將推動未來的收入。

In the Investment Bank, we have a well-diversified business portfolio supported by our leading financing business, which contributed EUR 2.2 billion or approximately 35% of FIC revenues year-to-date.

在投資銀行方面，我們擁有領先的融資業務支持的多元化業務組合，該業務今年迄今貢獻了 22 億歐元，約佔 FIC 收入的 35%。

Turning to the Private Bank. The business grew revenues, attractive inflows of EUR 22 billion supported by new money campaigns and made further progress in streamlining our distribution channels.

轉向私人銀行。這項業務收入成長，在新資金活動的支持下吸引了 220 億歐元的資金流入，並在簡化我們的分銷管道方面取得了進一步進展。

Finally, we also grew volumes in Asset Management. Assets under management grew by EUR 38 billion, including EUR 17 billion of net inflows in the first 9 months of 2023, driven by strong inflows into Passive, including X-trackers.

最後，我們的資產管理業務量也有所成長。管理資產成長了 380 億歐元，其中 2023 年前 9 個月淨流入 170 億歐元，這得益於 X-trackers 等被動資產的強勁流入。

To sum up, we delivered revenues of EUR 28.5 billion in the last 12 months, up over 6% versus the equivalent prior period. We also see forward momentum from net inflows, investments and business wins with key clients. Our businesses are strongly complementary and well balanced. All of this supports our view that we will continue to grow our franchise and exceed our revenue growth targets.

總而言之，我們在過去 12 個月內實現了 285 億歐元的收入，比去年同期成長了 6% 以上。我們也看到了淨流入、投資和與主要客戶的業務合作帶來的前進動力。我們的業務互補性強且平衡。所有這些都支持我們的觀點，即我們將繼續擴大我們的特許經營權並超越我們的收入成長目標。

Now let me turn to the progress we're making to accelerate the execution of our Global Hausbank strategy on Slide 3. With a compound annual revenue growth rate of 6.9% over 2021, we are well on track to outperform on our revenue growth target of 3.5% to 4.5%. And we will continue to benefit from the high rate environment, which drive sustainable performance in the Private Bank and Corporate Bank.

現在讓我談談我們在投影片 3 上加速執行全球 Hausbank 策略所取得的進展。2021 年的複合年收入成長率為 6.9%，我們有望超越我們的營收成長目標3.5%至4.5%。我們將繼續受益於高利率環境，這推動了私人銀行和企業銀行的可持續表現。

We continue to make progress with further initiatives that are expected to drive fee income. We are confident that the new entity, Deutsche Numis, will enable us to take added advantage of an expected pickup in Corporate Finance activity. With EUR 38 billion of net asset inflows in the first 9 months, we expect the growth of our assets under management to drive fee income in future quarters.

我們繼續透過進一步的措施取得進展，預計將增加費用收入。我們相信，新實體 Deutsche Numis 將使我們能夠從企業融資活動的預期回升中獲得更多優勢。前 9 個月淨資產流入達 380 億歐元，我們預計管理資產的成長將推動未來幾季的費用收入。

On operational efficiencies, our existing savings measures are largely proceeding in line with or ahead of plan. This includes streamlining of front-to-back processes and headcount management. We are also optimizing our distribution network and have reduced branches by more than 90 over the first 9 months of 2023. This enabled us to keep our adjusted costs essentially flat compared to the prior year quarter despite absorbing inflationary pressures and investments in growth and controls, and we continue to work on further measures.

在營運效率方面，我們現有的節約措施基本上是按照計劃或提前進行。這包括簡化前後流程和人員管理。我們也正在優化我們的分銷網絡，並在2023 年前9 個月減少了90 多個分支機構。這使我們能夠保持調整後的成本與去年同期相比基本持平，儘管吸收了通膨壓力以及增長和控制方面的投資，我們將繼續研究進一步的措施。

Slide 4 provides further details on the development in our loan and deposit books over the quarter. All figures in the commentary are adjusted for FX effects. Loans have been essentially flat across businesses during the third quarter as well as on a year-on-year basis. Underlying this yearly trend, loans have declined due to lower client demand in interest rate-sensitive segments as well as due to more targeted and selective balance sheet deployments, offset by focused growth in FIC.

投影片 4 提供了有關本季度貸款和存款帳簿發展的更多詳細資訊。評論中的所有數字均根據FX效果進行了調整。第三季各企業的貸款基本持平，年比也基本持平。在這一年度趨勢的基礎上，由於利率敏感領域的客戶需求下降以及更有針對性和選擇性的資產負債表部署，貸款有所下降，但被固定利率投資的集中增長所抵消。

On deposits, we have seen significant inflows of EUR 14 billion or 2% in the quarter. This was driven by a strong client reengagement in institutional segments following the market events in the first quarter, resulting in a stable year-on-year trend. This trend has been particularly pronounced in the Corporate Bank, where we saw growth primarily in term deposits.

在存款方面，本季我們看到大量流入 140 億歐元，即 2%。這是由於第一季市場事件發生後，機構客戶的強勁重新參與推動了這一趨勢，從而實現了穩定的同比趨勢。這種趨勢在企業銀行尤其明顯，我們看到成長主要是定期存款。

In the Private Bank, deposits remained essentially flat as inflows in the International Private Bank were partially offset by outflows in the German retail business due to continued macroeconomic headwinds.

在私人銀行方面，存款基本上持平，因為宏觀經濟持續不利因素導致國際私人銀行的資金流入被德國零售業務的資金流出部分抵銷。

For the remainder of the year, we expect a stabilization in our deposit book around current levels and materially above the previously communicated EUR 600 billion guidance, as recent growth in term deposits exceeded our previous forecast.

在今年剩餘時間內，我們預計存款帳戶將穩定在當前水準附近，並大幅高於先前公佈的 6,000 億歐元指引，因為近期定期存款的成長超出了我們先前的預測。

Moving to the net interest margin development on Slide 5. Average interest-earning assets were up EUR 6 billion, driven by the recovery in deposit balances in the third quarter. At the group level, NIM is down 12 basis points, of which approximately 5 basis points relates to accounting effects held in the corporate center, which were offset in noninterest revenues and have no impact on total revenue. This is the same effect we discussed with you in the first quarter.

轉向投影片 5 的淨利差發展。在第三季存款餘額復甦的推動下，平均生息資產增加了 60 億歐元。在集團層面，淨利差下降了 12 個基點，其中約 5 個基點與企業中心的會計影響有關，這些影響被非利息收入抵消，對總收入沒有影響。這與我們在第一季與您討論的效果相同。

Net interest margin in the Corporate Bank declined by approximately 25 basis points due to lower lending income and a higher cost of liquidity reserves. However, net interest income on the corporate deposit books remained strong in the quarter.

由於貸款收入下降和流動性儲備成本上升，公司銀行的淨利差下降約25個基點。然而，本季企業存款帳簿的淨利息收入仍然強勁。

Net interest margin in the Private Bank remained broadly stable in the third quarter with increased mortgage hedging costs, offsetting the ongoing strong margins in the deposit books. Overall, our deposit betas continue to outperform our models, and we expect NII to remain broadly stable in the fourth quarter.

第三季私人銀行的淨利差基本上保持穩定，抵押貸款對沖成本增加，抵消了存款帳戶持續強勁的利潤率。總體而言，我們的存款貝塔值繼續優於我們的模型，我們預計NII在第四季度將保持大致穩定。

Moving to Slide 6, highlighting the development of our key liquidity metrics. The liquidity coverage ratio at quarter end was at 132%, due to proactive steering towards our target level and in line with our previously communicated guidance. The daily average LCR over the last 3 months has even slightly increased to 136%, demonstrating our sound liquidity profile.

轉向投影片 6，重點介紹我們關鍵流動性指標的發展。由於積極轉向我們的目標水準並符合我們先前傳達的指導，季度末的流動性覆蓋率為 132%。過去 3 個月的日均 LCR 甚至小幅上升至 136%，這表明我們良好的流動性狀況。

The stock of EUR 210 billion of HQLA, which is mainly held in cash and Level 1 securities, has increased by EUR 6 billion, reflecting a strong deposit growth in the third quarter. The surplus above the regulatory minimum slightly decreased by about EUR 4 billion to EUR 51 billion quarter-on-quarter, mainly driven by almost EUR 7 billion of TLTRO repayment, including the early prepayment of EUR 3 billion maturing in December 2023. For the fourth quarter, we remain committed to support growth in the business while aiming to maintain the LCR around the 130% target level.

主要以現金和一級證券持有的 2,100 億歐元 HQLA 存量增加了 60 億歐元，反映了第三季存款的強勁成長。高於監管最低限額的盈餘環比小幅減少約 40 億歐元，至 510 億歐元，主要是由於近 70 億歐元的 TLTRO 償還，其中包括 2023 年 12 月到期的提前預付款 30 億歐元。第二季度，我們仍然致力於支持業務成長，同時致力於將LCR 維持在130% 的目標水準左右。

The net stable funding ratio was slightly up quarter-on-quarter to 121%, again mainly reflecting the strong momentum in our deposit book. This represents a surplus of about EUR 105 billion above the regulatory requirement. The available longer-term stable funding sources for the bank remain well diversified and are supported by a robust deposit franchise, which continues contributing about 2/3 to the group's stable funding sources.

淨穩定資金比率環比小幅上升至121%，再次主要反映了我們存款帳戶的強勁勢頭。這比監管要求多出約 1,050 億歐元的盈餘。該銀行可用的長期穩定資金來源仍然十分多元化，並得到強大的存款業務的支持，該業務繼續為該集團的穩定資金來源貢獻約2/3。

Targeted deposit campaigns in the Private Bank as well as strong deposit momentum in the Corporate Bank also supported our NSFR. We aim to maintain our funding mix in 2024 with the remaining TLTRO of EUR 15 billion being gradually replaced, and we note that we do not have further material TLTRO repayments this year.

私人銀行的定向存款活動以及企業銀行強勁的存款動能也支持了我們的 NSFR。我們的目標是在 2024 年維持我們的融資結構，剩餘的 150 億歐元 TLTRO 將被逐步取代，並且我們注意到今年我們沒有進一步的實質 TLTRO 償還。

Turning to capital on Slide 7. Our third quarter common equity Tier 1 ratio came in at 13.9%, a 19 basis points increase compared to the previous quarter. Regulatory changes, principally from the go-live of newly approved wholesale and retail models, resulted in a decline of 38 basis points, slightly below the low end of our previous guidance. Optimization initiatives generated 27 basis points from lower credit risk RWA, principally reflecting improvements in our data and certain process changes.

轉向投影片 7 上的資本。我們第三季普通股一級資本比率為 13.9%，比上一季增加 19 個基點。監管變化（主要來自新批准的批發和零售模式的上線）導致下降 38 個基點，略低於我們先前指導的下限。優化措施使信用風險 RWA 降低了 27 個基點，主要反映了我們資料的改進和某些流程的變化。

A further 19 basis points of ratio support came from diligent risk management in our businesses and an 11 basis points increase came from strong organic capital generation. That is net income, offset by deductions for the share buyback, dividends and AT1 coupons.

另外 19 個基點的比率支援來自於我們業務中勤奮的風險管理，而 11 個基點的成長則來自於強大的有機資本生成。這是扣除股票回購、股利和 AT1 票息後的淨利。

As mentioned, regulatory changes led to a reduction of 38 basis points in our common equity Tier 1 ratio. With the go-live of the newly approved wholesale retail models, the ECB has completed a review of approximately 85% of the relevant portfolio, and we expect only limited ratio impact from the remainder.

如前所述，監理變化導致我們的普通股一級資本比率降低了 38 個基點。隨著新批准的批發零售模式的上線，歐洲央行已完成對約 85% 相關投資組合的審查，我們預計其餘投資組合的比率影響有限。

In the first quarter of this year, we announced a targeted EUR 15 billion to EUR 20 billion RWA reduction by the end of 2025 through several capital optimization initiatives. We accelerated some of the data and process optimization initiatives into the third quarter, which brings the cumulative RWA reductions to date to EUR 10 billion. The work we have done over the past several months gives us confidence to increase the original target by EUR 10 billion to EUR 25 billion to EUR 30 billion.

今年第一季度，我們宣布透過多項資本優化舉措，到 2025 年底前減少 150 億至 200 億歐元的 RWA。我們在第三季加快了一些數據和流程優化舉措，使迄今為止累積 RWA 減少額達到 100 億歐元。過去幾個月所做的工作讓我們有信心將原先增加100億歐元至250億歐元至300億歐元。

Lastly, let me touch on our Basel III estimates. The latest review of our impact assessments indicates an RWA increase of only around EUR 15 billion versus EUR 25 billion to EUR 30 billion we had previously guided. The majority of the improvement comes from lower market and credit valuation risk charges, delivered out of the FRTB transformation program. Credit risk estimates are still under review and remain dependent on the final CRR3 legislative text.

最後，讓我談談我們對巴塞爾協議 III 的估計。對我們影響評估的最新審查表明，RWA 僅增加了約 150 億歐元，而我們先前指導的為 250 億歐元至 300 億歐元。大部分改善來自 FRTB 轉型計劃帶來的市場和信用評估風險費用的降低。信用風險估計仍在審查中，並仍取決於最終的 CRR3 立法文本。

Overall, let me highlight that estimates are based on our interpretation of current draft regulation and therefore, remains subject to change. Our capital ratios remain well above regulatory requirements, as shown on Slide 9. The CET1 MDA buffer now stands at 278 basis points or EUR 10 billion of CET1 capital. The quarter-on-quarter increase of 16 basis points reflects a 19 basis points higher CET1 capital ratio and a 3 basis point reduction from a higher countercyclical capital buffer in the United Kingdom. Our total capital MDA buffer further increased due to lower RWA, reducing our AT1 and Tier 2 capital requirements. It now stands at 300 basis points.

總的來說，我要強調的是，估算是基於我們對現行法規草案的解釋，因此仍然可能發生變化。我們的資本比率仍遠高於監管要求，如投影片 9 所示。CET1 MDA 緩衝目前為 278 個基點，即 100 億歐元的 CET1 資本。環比成長 16 個基點反映了 CET1 資本比率提高了 19 個基點，以及英國較高的反週期資本緩衝減少了 3 個基點。由於 RWA 降低，我們的總資本 MDA 緩衝進一步增加，從而降低了我們的 AT1 和次要資本要求。目前為 300 個基點。

Moving to Slide 10. At the end of the third quarter, our leverage ratio stood at a comfortable 4.7%, flat to the previous quarter. A 2 basis point decline was due to lower Tier 1 capital, in line with CET1 capital movement. A 6 basis points increase of the leverage ratio resulted from lower leverage exposure, driven primarily by a regulatory clarification on the treatment of specific cash pooling structures. FX effects contributed a 3 basis points decline. We continue to operate with a significant loss-absorbing capacity well above all our requirements, as shown on Slide 11.

轉到投影片 10。第三季末，我們的槓桿率處於舒適的 4.7%，與上一季持平。下降 2 個基點是由於一級資本減少，與 CET1 資本變動一致。槓桿率上升 6 個基點是由於槓桿風險降低，這主要是由於監管機構對特定現金池結構的處理進行了澄清。匯率影響導致下跌 3 個基點。我們繼續以遠高於我們所有要求的顯著損失吸收能力運營，如幻燈片 11 所示。

The MREL surplus, our most binding constraint, increased by EUR 5 billion to EUR 17 billion over the quarter. This includes an increase of EUR 3 billion from higher eligible liabilities and own funds, an increase of EUR 1 billion from lower RWA, net of the increase in the countercyclical capital buffer requirement in the United Kingdom. Our loss-absorbing capacity buffer stands at a comfortable level and continues to provide us with the flexibility to pause issuing new eligible liabilities instruments for approximately 1 year.

MREL 盈餘是我們最具約束力的限制，本季增加了 50 億歐元，達到 170 億歐元。其中包括因合格負債和自有資金增加而增加的 30 億歐元，因 RWA 降低而增加的 10 億歐元（扣除英國反週期資本緩衝要求的增加）。我們的損失吸收能力緩衝處於舒適的水平，並繼續為我們提供暫停發行新的合格負債工具約一年的靈活性。

Moving now to our issuance plan on Slide 12. With year-to-date issuance of EUR 13 billion, we have largely completed our issuance plan for 2023. We expect our full year issuance volume to land in the EUR 14 billion to EUR 16 billion range. Issuance this quarter will be in senior preferred and covered bond format, both relatively inexpensive sources of funding for the bank. It is too early to provide concrete guidance regarding our 2024 issuance plan. But depending on market conditions, we may consider some prefunding of 2024 requirements during the fourth quarter.

現在來看看投影片 12 上的發行計畫。今年迄今發行了 130 億歐元，我們已基本完成 2023 年的發行計畫。我們預計全年發行量將在 140 億歐元至 160 億歐元之間範圍。本季的發行將以優先優先債券和擔保債券形式發行，這對銀行來說都是相對便宜的資金來源。現在就我們的 2024 年發行計劃提供具體指導還為時過早。但根據市場情況，我們可能會考慮在第四季度為 2024 年的需求提供一些預籌資金。

You may have seen our announcement on the 11th of October of a consent solicitation for our 4.789% coupon dollar AT1 security. This transaction endeavors to transition the coupon reset mechanism from eyeball swaps to safer swaps. To encourage investor participation, we are paying a fee of EUR 0.50. In the event the transaction fails, we expect the securities fallback language to result in the usage of the last available fixing of 4.201%. We note that this fixing is below current and forward rates for the next reset date in April 2025. The registration and instruction deadline is on the 31st of October, followed by the voting period from the 1st to 3rd November. On the 6th November, we will either announce the results or convene an adjourned meeting.

您可能已經看到我們於 10 月 11 日發布的關於就我們的 4.789% 息票美元 AT1 證券徵求同意的公告。本交易致力於將優惠券重置機制從眼球互換過渡到更安全的互換。為了鼓勵投資者參與，我們支付 0.50 歐元的費用。如果交易失敗，我們預期證券後備語言將導致使用最後可用的固定利率 4.201%。我們注意到，該定盤價低於2025 年4 月下一次重置日期的當前匯率和遠期匯率。註冊和指示截止日期為10 月31 日，隨後的投票期為11 月1 日至3 日。 11 月 6 日，我們將宣布結果或召開延期會議。

Before going to your questions, let me conclude with a summary on Slide 13. We remain focused on delivering positive operating leverage, as we drive our revenue growth initiatives and execute our cost reduction measures. We now expect full year 2023 revenues to be around EUR 29 billion. Provision for credit losses is expected at the upper end of the 25 to 30 basis point range of average loans for the full year. Our balance sheet proved its resilience with a deposit increase to well above EUR 600 billion. And finally, our capital position and outlook has substantially improved through RWA measures we have implemented.

在回答大家的問題之前，讓我先對投影片 13 進行總結。在我們推動營收成長計畫並執行成本削減措施的同時，我們仍然專注於提供積極的營運槓桿。我們現在預計 2023 年全年營收約為 290 億歐元。預計信貸損失準備金將在全年平均貸款 25 至 30 個基點範圍的上限。我們的資產負債表證明了其彈性，存款增加至遠高於 6,000 億歐元。最後，透過我們實施的 RWA 措施，我們的資本狀況和前景得到了顯著改善。

With that, let's just turn to your questions.

那麼，讓我們來回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Kumar Brajesh from Societe Generale.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Kumar Brajesh。

I got 3 questions, if I may. First one on net interest income. Can you just explain why the group NII has not moved much over the whole year in fact? And also, how should we think about the NII trajectory going forward?

如果可以的話，我有 3 個問題。第一個是淨利息收入。您能解釋一下為什麼NII集團實際上全年沒有太大變動嗎？另外，我們該如何思考 NII 的未來發展軌跡？

Second on issuance, Richard, I know you talked about increased senior issuance plan now. But why we are increasing senior specifically? And talking about prefunding for FY '24, any particular capital structuring plan you have?

第二個關於發行的問題，理查德，我知道你現在談到了增加高級發行計劃。但為什麼我們要專門增加高級呢？談到 24 財年的預融資，您有什麼具體的資本結構計畫嗎？

And finally, given your improved capital outlook, can you give us some update around your capital distribution plans? That's it for me.

最後，鑑於您的資本前景有所改善，您能否向我們介紹一下您的資本分配計畫的最新情況？對我來說就是這樣。

Thanks very much for the question, and thank you for joining on a Friday, almost a weekend. So I guess the NII question, first of all. So at the group level, our reported NII is heavily impacted by our use of derivatives to hedge our cross-currency and basis risk and by our trading books, particularly rates derivatives. These positions can create a symmetry between accounting, net interest income and noninterest revenues, which are flat at total revenue level, and the size of the offsets varies depending on market conditions. This offset between accounting classification for our hedging is kept in our corporate center to allow a clean economic view of the NII in our Private Bank and Corporate Bank segments.

非常感謝您提出這個問題，也感謝您在周五（幾乎是週末）加入。所以我首先想到的是 NII 問題。因此，在集團層面，我們報告的NII受到我們使用衍生性商品對沖交叉貨幣和基差風險以及我們的交易帳簿（尤其是利率衍生性商品）的嚴重影響。這些頭寸可以在會計、淨利息收入和非利息收入之間建立對稱性，這些收入在總收入水平上持平，並且抵消的規模根據市場狀況而變化。我們的對沖會計分類之間的這種抵銷保留在我們的企業中心，以便我們的私人銀行和企業銀行部門能夠清楚地了解國家資訊基礎設施的經濟情況。

As you can see, the NII in these 2 businesses is up about EUR 2 billion in the 9 months year-to-date when compared to the equivalent period last year. We expect to see NII relatively flat in both businesses in the fourth quarter as the underlying deposit NII in both segments remained strong in this year and also in Q3. And betas continue to outperform our models. We do expect betas to converge over the course of 2024, resulting in a modest decline in net interest income, but a much smaller magnitude than the increase we've seen over the last 2 years. So a bit of an accounting sort of conversation there, but hopefully, the overlying trend is clear to you.

正如您所看到的，與去年同期相比，今年迄今為止的 9 個月內，這兩項業務的 NII 增加了約 20 億歐元。我們預計第四季度這兩個業務的NII將相對持平，因為這兩個領域的基礎存款NII在今年和第三季仍然強勁。測試版的表現持續優於我們的模型。我們確實預期貝塔值將在 2024 年收斂，導致淨利息收入小幅下降，但幅度比過去兩年的成長幅度小得多。這裡有一些會計方面的對話，但希望您能清楚地了解最重要的趨勢。

On the issuance side of things, so if I understood correctly, so why senior? The -- I think it's a combination of both senior and covered bonds, but just -- it's just to complete our issuance plan for this year. That's kind of the sort of spot which we think is the sweetest from a funding perspective.

在發行方面，如果我理解正確的話，為什麼是高級？我認為這是優先債券和擔保債券的組合，但這只是為了完成我們今年的發行計畫。從資金角度來看，我們認為這是最甜蜜的地方。

And then in terms of guidance, I think we just want to make sure, while no decision is being made around what we might do for any prefunding, we obviously are always opportunistic as markets allow. But as we kind of go through our planning process for 2024, we kind of see what the shape of the balance sheet looks like. We may take an opportunity in Q4. We just didn't want U.K. to be surprised by that.

然後就指導而言，我認為我們只是想確保，雖然沒有就我們可能為任何預籌資金做的事情做出任何決定，但我們顯然總是在市場允許的情況下保持機會主義。但當我們回顧 2024 年的規劃過程時，​​我們大致了解了資產負債表的情況。我們可能會在第四季抓住機會。我們只是不想讓英國對此感到驚訝。

And my comment -- what's the last question on that? I guess outlook for next year I think was your question. So there, again, as we just go through that planning process, we haven't really formulated a view as to what our needs will be for next year. But I guess the guide will be kind of what you see in the last few years, which is somewhere between EUR 15 billion to EUR 20 billion if you have to put a gun to my head today. But again, we will refine that as we kind of go through our planning process. So that's what we're thinking to ourselves.

我的評論是——最後一個問題是什麼？我想明年的前景是你的問題。因此，當我們剛完成規劃過程時，​​我們還沒有真正形成關於明年的需求的觀點。但我想這個指南會是你在過去幾年看到的那樣，如果你今天拿槍指著我的頭的話，這個數字在 150 億歐元到 200 億歐元之間。但同樣，我們將在完成規劃過程時對其進行完善。這就是我們自己的想法。

And I'd note also that as you're all familiar, we don't have any Tier 1 or Tier 2 calls next year either. So just to reiterate that point. And I guess on the capital distribution plans as your last question, so as we had mentioned in our analyst call on Wednesday, we see outlook improvements regarding capital efficiency, which we expect to free up an additional EUR 3 billion of capital from now through 2025. The RWA optimization efforts came out better than expected, along with that improved outlook. We continue to be in discussions with the regulator regarding a revised capital plan. And subject to that dialogue, we would expect a good proportion of the incremental capital to be distributed.

我還要指出，正如你們都熟悉的那樣，我們明年也沒有任何一級或二級呼叫。所以只是重申這一點。我想關於資本分配計劃是你的最後一個問題，正如我們在周三的分析師電話會議中提到的那樣，我們看到資本效率的前景有所改善，我們預計從現在到2025 年將額外釋放30億歐元的資本. RWA 優化工作的結果好於預期，前景也有所改善。我們將繼續與監管機構就修訂後的資本計畫進行討論。根據這種對話，我們預計增量資本的很大一部分將得到分配。

At the same time, we continue our strategy to invest in growth in fee-related revenue businesses across divisions. Our technology investments are already paying off, and we do believe that we have a market-leading position in many areas such as payments. So that gives you a bit of a visibility as to what we're thinking.

同時，我們持續實施投資於各部門收費相關收入業務成長的策略。我們的技術投資已經得到回報，我們相信我們在支付等許多領域都處於市場領先地位。這樣您就可以了解我們的想法。

The next question comes from Daniel David from Autonomous.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Daniel David。

Congratulations on the results. I've got 3. The first one is just on U.S. office CRE. I know that we stated at about EUR 5 billion in Q1, and that's gone up to EUR 8 billion. Could you comment on what's driven the increase?

祝賀結果。我有 3 個。第一個就在美國辦公室 CRE 上。我知道我們在第一季表示約為 50 億歐元，現在已經上升至 80 億歐元。您能否評論一下是什麼推動了這一成長？

The second one is just on CET1. I know that the expected loss deduction in CET1 jumped from EUR 0.5 billion in Q2 to EUR 2 billion in Q3, but that looks like it's being compensated by the legacy NPE deduction, which has dropped from EUR 1.1 billion to EUR 0.3 billion. Could you just comment on what's driving that? And is that CRE related as well?

第二個就在CET1上。我知道CET1 的預期損失扣除額從第二季的5 億歐元躍升至第三季的20 億歐元，但這似乎是由遺留的NPE 扣除額所補償，該扣除額已從11 億歐元降至3億歐元。您能評論一下是什麼推動了這一趨勢嗎？這也與 CRE 有關嗎？

And then finally, just to round off on CRE, you've got EUR 5.7 billion of modified U.S. CRE loans. Would these be Stage 2? And is the modified kind of classification similar to criticized as the U.S. banks report?

最後，為了對 CRE 進行四捨五入，您將獲得 57 億歐元的修改後的美國 CRE 貸款。這是第二階段嗎？修改後的分類是否與美國銀行報告中所批評的類似？

So Daniel, thank you for your questions. It's James here. So on the U.S. office, first of all, we went through what I'd call a sort of redefinition of the disclosure we were providing at the middle of the year to try to give you a clearer view of what is nonrecourse, how does it compare to the NACE disclosure? And then what within that is CRE and within CRE U.S. and U.S. office? And in that redefinition, we, among other things, redefined what we call -- used to call a focused portfolio, now we're referring to as our stress test portfolio.

丹尼爾，謝謝你的提問。這是詹姆斯。因此，在美國辦事處，首先，我們對我們在年中提供的披露進行了我所說的重新定義，試圖讓您更清楚地了解什麼是無追索權，它是如何實現的？與NACE 披露的資訊相比？那麼 CRE 以及 CRE 美國和美國辦事處的內部是什麼？在這個重新定義中，我們重新定義了我們所說的話——過去稱為重點投資組合，現在我們稱之為壓力測試投資組合。

The increases were, among other things, sort of just a wider perimeter lens, if you like, that we were looking at. We were particularly focused on IB before and we expanded that perimeter lens, if you like, to include Corporate Bank, but also other corporate portfolios. And so that redefinition gives you just a higher level of U.S. office exposure. It's not connected to the expected loss number, the shortfall that you're referring to. So it's not a CRE issue. It's actually really just -- I refer to it as a recognition of some double count between the models that have now been updated to reflect the approved models.

如果你願意的話，除此之外，這些增加有點只是我們正在研究的更寬的周邊鏡頭。我們之前特別關注IB，如果你願意的話，我們擴大了範圍，包括企業銀行，但也包括其他企業投資組合。因此，這種重新定義將為您提供更高水準的美國辦公室曝光度。它與預期損失數字（您所指的缺口）無關。所以這不是CRE問題。實際上，我將其稱為對模型之間某些重複計算的認可，這些模型現在已更新以反映已批准的模型。

So the retail, wholesale models finding some double count between what those models are now capturing and the EL numbers previously, including for nonperforming exposures. And then on the EUR 5.7 billion, it's a mixture of Stage 2 and Stage 3. So it's not all in Stage 3 because some of those loans are performing when they're modified or extended. So it doesn't -- the definition of a portfolio that is in that EUR 5.7 billion doesn't neatly fit into the IFRS staging.

因此，零售、批發模型發現這些模型現在捕獲的數據與先前的 EL 數據之間存在重複計算，包括不良風險敞口。然後，57 億歐元是第二階段和第三階段的混合。因此，並非全部都在第三階段，因為其中一些貸款在修改或延期時仍在履行。所以事實並非如此——57 億歐元的投資組合的定義並不完全符合 IFRS 的分期。

The next question comes from Robert Smalley from UBS Fixed Income.

下一個問題來自瑞銀固定收益部門的羅伯特‧史莫利。

I have 3 today. First, on asset quality. It seems that changes in provisioning, the swing factor is more model driven than anything else. So from that, can we imply that your bottom-up type of analysis still isn't focusing on any particular set of credits or credits that are an issue and it is just model driven that's causing changes in the provision? And if you can take out the microscope, are there any kind of micro trends in there that you're starting to see provision-wise?

我今天有3個。第一，資產品質。似乎供應方面的變化、搖擺因素更多是模型驅動的。因此，我們是否可以暗示，您的自下而上類型的分析仍然沒有關注任何特定的一組學分或有問題的學分，而只是模型驅動導致了條款的變化？如果您可以拿出顯微鏡，您是否開始看到其中的任何微觀趨勢？

Secondly, on Tier 2. You mentioned that there's no Tier 2 maturities next year. Your Tier 2 spreads are considerably wider than your peers. Is -- can you say that you won't do any Tier 2 issuance next year and maybe that could be helpful in tightening that up?

其次，關於第二級。您提到明年沒有第二級到期。您的二級利差比您的同行寬得多。您能否說明年不會進行任何二級發行，也許這有助於加強這一力度？

And then third, looking out a little bit further, on the MRR, the mandatory reserve requirements that the ECB is talking about raising that, there's no remuneration for that. Now they changed that to 0. Could you talk about the impact on net interest income there and on liquidity given you can't use that in the LCR calculation? And I realize it's early days, and we don't have numbers, but just wanted to get a feel on what you were thinking and if this is a negotiation with the ECB? Or are they still kind of thinking it over there?

第三，再進一步看 MRR，即歐洲央行正在討論提高的強制性準備金要求，但沒有任何報酬。現在他們將其更改為 0。鑑於您無法在 LCR 計算中使用它，您能否談談對淨利息收入和流動性的影響？我意識到現在還為時過早，我們沒有數據，但只是想了解您的想法，以及這是否是與歐洲央行的談判？或者他們仍然在那裡思考？

Thanks, Robert. Thank you for joining us this afternoon as well. So yes, the answer is it was all model driven, the release in Stage 2. By the way, the EUR 100 million was sort of the -- was both the net and the gross, I would tell you. There was about -- there was some additional Stage 2 improvement from forward-looking indicators, offset by portfolio parameters in the quarter and -- but the net was the same as the model-driven release.

謝謝，羅伯特。也感謝您今天下午加入我們。所以是的，答案是，這一切都是模型驅動的，在第二階段發布。順便說一句，我告訴你，1 億歐元是淨收入和毛收入。前瞻性指標在第二階段有一些額外的改進，被本季的投資組合參數所抵消，但淨值與模型驅動的發布相同。

In the -- and by the way, also highlight that the allowance remains EUR 5.7 billion. So it didn't actually change a great deal, what our allowance looks like. In terms of bottoms up, there wasn't any sort of noteworthy changes in the portfolio in the quarter. So if I think about, for example, kind of the upgrade/downgrade activity forward-looking metrics in the portfolio, there really wasn't anything to note. So I would characterize it as a quarter in which the micro trends, as you say, were essentially stable to maybe slightly improving over the quarter, which is encouraging given where we are in the credit cycle. I'll leave Richard with the other 2 questions you asked.

順便說一句，還要強調的是，補貼仍為 57 億歐元。所以我們的津貼其實沒有太大改變。就自下而上而言，本季的投資組合沒有任何值得注意的變化。因此，例如，如果我考慮投資組合中的升級/降級活動前瞻性指標，實際上沒有什麼需要注意的。因此，我將其描述為一個季度，正如您所說，微觀趨勢基本上穩定，甚至可能在本季度略有改善，考慮到我們所處的信貸週期，這是令人鼓舞的。我將把你問的另外兩個問題留給理查德。

Yes. Sure. So I think the first question was around Tier 2, and I'll take the MRR question. So Tier 2, again, we're still working through that funding plan, as I kind of mentioned, but -- so I wouldn't rule it out. I think in previous years, it was kind of down EUR 1 billion to EUR 1.5 billion in prior years. I think the -- no decision is being made as we just kind of work out what the shape of the balance sheet looks like for next year.

是的。當然。所以我認為第一個問題是關於第 2 層的，我將回答 MRR 問題。因此，正如我所提到的，第二層我們仍在製定該融資計劃，但是——所以我不會排除這種可能性。我認為前幾年，這一數字下降了 10 億歐元至 15 億歐元。我認為，目前還沒有做出任何決定，因為我們只是在計算明年資產負債表的形狀。

The -- what I would say is, I mean, interesting, I guess, around your idea about sort of tightening the spreads just given where things are, obviously, that's something which we're cognizant of. I think interestingly enough, when we issued our [Tier 2 bond] back in February actually kind of tightened the Tier 2 market rate. So I think that's something else that we have to think through.

我想說的是，我想，圍繞著你關於收緊利差的想法很有趣，顯然，這是我們所認識到的。我認為有趣的是，當我們在二月發行[二級債券]時，實際上收緊了二級市場利率。所以我認為這是我們必須考慮的其他事情。

On the MRR side of things, the -- which I guess take it a few different ways. So anyway, we kind of mentioned at the last FI call the sort of the move from -- that was announced kind of 0% to 1% move, I guess, impacted us by around EUR 50 million in revenue per quarter.

在 MRR 方面，我想可以採取幾種不同的方法。所以無論如何，我們在上次 FI 電話會議上提到了這種從 0% 到 1% 的變動，我想這對我們每季的收入產生了約 5000 萬歐元的影響。

Yes, I think actually, it's a dialogue or a conversation. I think it's more the authorities will kind of come to their own decision. But I think we, along with our peers, are pointing out that the impact of what these decisions actually mean from a both a liquidity perspective but also an interest rate risk management perspective. And as you can imagine, we're kind of pretty vocal around whether this is an appropriate form of monetary policy. But yes, I think the impact, I think, is on liquidity, of course, is the fact that we have to withdraw these liquidity -- the reserve requirements go against our liquidity, so we'd have to replace that liquidity for every 1% change. So let's put things in perspective.

是的，我認為實際上，這是一場對話或對話。我認為當局更多的是會做出自己的決定。但我認為我們和我們的同行一起指出，這些決策實際上從流動性角度和利率風險管理角度都意味著影響力。正如你可以想像的那樣，我們對這是否是一種適當的貨幣政策形式持非常明確的態度。但是，是的，我認為影響是對流動性的，當然，我們必須撤回這些流動性——準備金要求與我們的流動性背道而馳，所以我們必須每 1 替換該流動性。％ 改變。所以讓我們正確看待事情。

So if the MRR was kind of moved by 1% or something, that was -- have a commensurate impact on our HQLA holdings, which will need to be replaced.

因此，如果 MRR 移動 1% 或其他什麼，那就是對我們的 HQLA 持有量產生相應的影響，需要更換。

The next question comes from Lee Street from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Lee Street。

I have 2. Firstly on Slide 11. Just you envisage shifting around the mix of preferred senior and nonpreferred senior use of MREL and TLAC compliance. Or do you think that will stay in line with where we are currently?

我有 2。首先在幻燈片 11 上。您設想改變優先高級和非優先高級使用 MREL 和 TLAC 合規性的組合。或者您認為這會與我們目前的情況保持一致嗎？

And secondly, I think you're quite clear saying that you expect most of your additional connected Tier 1 to be used for capital return. But for amounts that aren't used for that, in which divisions would you be looking to deploy that? Or to put the question another way, divisionally, where do you see the best return on your marginal unit of capital to the extent you're going to extend more capital across your divisions at the current time? That would be my 2 questions.

其次，我認為您非常明確地表示，您希望大部分額外的連接一級將用於資本回報。但對於未用於此目的的金額，您希望將其部署在哪些部門？或者換句話說，按部門劃分，如果您目前要在各個部門中擴展更多資本，那麼您認為邊際資本單位的最佳回報在哪裡？這是我的兩個問題。

So yes, I think in terms of issuance shift, I mean, I think it's relatively simple. I think for things -- so (inaudible) we see as a similar mix to next year as previous years. I think the sort of the uplift we get from loss from the LGF methodology for Moody's, for example, means that -- and kind of where we are with kind of capital means that we probably need less S&P at the margin and senior preferred we still see as an attractive source of funding. But we're not seeing a substantial change in our mix going forward.

所以，是的，我認為就發行轉變而言，我的意思是，我認為它相對簡單。我認為對於事情 - 所以（聽不清楚）我們認為明年的組合與前幾年類似。我認為，例如，穆迪的 LGF 方法論所帶來的損失所帶來的提升意味著——我們的資本狀況意味著我們可能需要更少的標普利潤，而我們仍然優先選擇高級股被視為有吸引力的資金來源。但我們沒有看到未來的組合有重大變化。

And Lee, in terms of where to put the capital to work, we look at it both by sort of externally reported segments, and -- but within those segments at a more granular portfolio level. What I would say is in terms of the mix of business, our capital allocation is sort of trying to move capital to the Corporate Bank and the Private Bank in particular but they're, in essence, constrained by the market opportunity. So the ability to lend within our risk appetite and thereby grow risk at risk-weighted assets really is the thing that drives their capital usage and there, we want them to grow within that risk appetite.

Lee，就將資本投入到何處而言，我們既透過外部報告的細分市場來看待它，又在這些細分市場內以更細緻的投資組合層級來看待它。我想說的是，就業務組合而言，我們的資本配置有點試圖將資本轉移到企業銀行和私人銀行，但它們本質上受到市場機會的限制。因此，在我們的風險偏好範圍內放款並從而增加風險加權資產風險的能力確實是推動其資本使用的因素，我們希望它們在風險偏好範圍內成長。

We're also supporting the Asset Management business with additional capital, for example, seed funding for new investment strategies and products. So there's some amount that goes to Asset Management. Where we sort of attempt to manage and, if you like, constrained capital is from an allocation perspective is the Investment Bank. That's sort of a business mix call but also, I think, a disciplined call because it's a business in which you can, in a sense, put unlimited capital to work and you need to preserve that discipline.

我們也透過額外資本支持資產管理業務，例如，為新的投資策略和產品提供種子資金。因此，有一些資金用於資產管理。我們試圖從配置的角度來管理（如果你願意的話）受限資本是投資銀行。這是一種業務組合的呼籲，但我認為，這也是一個有紀律的呼籲，因為從某種意義上說，這是一項你可以投入無限資本的業務，並且你需要保持這種紀律。

What's really gratifying is the business embraces that under Fabrizio, Ram and Mark's leadership, they absolutely -- and their teams embrace the ideas around efficiency of deployment. And as I say, at a more granular portfolio level is also where we look at it. So within the businesses, there can be sort of capital allocation and efficiency measures below the reported segment.

真正令人欣慰的是，在 Fabrizio、Ram 和 Mark 的領導下，企業接受了他們及其團隊所接受的關於部署效率的想法。正如我所說，我們也在更細粒度的投資組合層面上進行研究。因此，在企業內部，報告部門下方可能存在某種資本配置和效率措施。

The one other thing I would just add, I think you started your question with a reference to AT1. We look at the use or the deployment of the leverage balance sheet as well as the risk-weighted asset balance sheet. So we look at that comprehensively. And obviously, the greatest degree of flexibility in terms of committing leverage resources within the envelope that we're comfortable with is typically in the Investment Bank. So hopefully, that captures your question totally.

我想補充的另一件事是，我認為您在開始提問時提到了 AT1。我們研究槓桿資產負債表以及風險加權資產資產負債表的使用或部署。所以我們全面地看待這個問題。顯然，在我們滿意的範圍內投入槓桿資源方面，最大程度的靈活性通常是在投資銀行。希望這能完全解答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Adam Terelak from Mediobanca.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Mediobanca 的 Adam Terelak。

I thought I'd take some time outside of the equity quarter, ask on a different topic, and that's the digital euro. We've been asking all the banks in Europe around what they see as the risks, the opportunities from the implementation of digital euro. So we just wanted to get both of your thoughts on that as well as what's kind of baked into your forward planning at this stage or whether it's a bit too early to say.

我想我應該在股票季度之外花一些時間，詢問一個不同的主題，那就是數位歐元。我們一直在向歐洲所有銀行詢問他們認為實施數位歐元帶來的風險和機會。因此，我們只是想了解您對此的想法，以及您現階段的前瞻性計劃中包含哪些內容，或者現在說是否還為時過早。

So Adam, thanks for the question. And it's, by the way, a topic that interests -- it's James again, interest me as well intensely. I mean short version -- or short answer to your last part of the question is really nothing built into the forward plan. It's too early to think about timing and specific impact implications of a digital euro. But if I take the question in a few parts, first of all, there is a pretty high degree of engagement certainly that we have -- that we at Deutsche Bank engage in both directly and through industry fora on this topic. One is, by the way, at the CFO level, I and a group of my peers have been quite engaged, but also Christian and his peers at an association level, quite engaged with the authorities on this topic.

亞當，謝謝你的提問。順便說一句，這是一個很有趣的話題——又是詹姆斯，我也很感興趣。我的意思是簡短的版本——或者對問題最後部分的簡短回答實際上並沒有納入遠期計劃中。現在考慮數位歐元的時機和具體影響還為時過早。但如果我分成幾個部分來回答這個問題，首先，我們確實有相當高的參與度——我們德意志銀行直接或透過產業論壇參與這個主題。順便說一句，在財務長層面，我和我的一群同事一直在積極參與，而且克里斯蒂安和他在協會層面的同事也在這個話題上與當局進行了積極的接觸。

We recognize that it's both an opportunity for the financial sector for Europe, for the sovereignty of the euro and the risk to the sector. And as you can imagine, we're very vocal in pointing out where we see the risks, including to liquidity in stress to the business model of banking and payments to the extent that, in essence, private market solutions are displaced by official sector solutions, and conceivably to sort of credit formation. If you basically take the banks out of the business of money creation and credit formation, you're potentially unleashing some forces on the economy that are hard to predict.

我們認識到，這既是歐洲金融部門、歐元主權的機會，也是該部門面臨的風險。正如你可以想像的那樣，我們非常直言不諱地指出我們所看到的風險，包括流動性壓力、銀行和支付業務模式，以至於從本質上講，私人市場解決方案被官方部門解決方案所取代，並且可以想像到某種信用形成。如果你基本上讓銀行不再參與貨幣創造和信貸形成業務，那麼你可能會釋放出一些難以預測的經濟力量。

So there are a number of, as I say, opportunities and risks that we see associated with the digital euro, and we're very engaged in that dialogue. And by the way, that's true looking both at the digital euro from a retail perspective and from a wholesale perspective. And in fairness, we see a lot of use cases in wholesale in particular which we would embrace.

因此，正如我所說，我們看到了與數位歐元相關的許多機會和風險，我們非常積極地參與這種對話。順便說一句，從零售角度和批發角度來看數位歐元都是如此。公平地說，我們看到了很多批發用例，特別是我們願意接受的用例。

In retail, it's sort of interesting exactly what the use cases are that improve on the world as it is today. In either case, I just want to be clear, we are supportive of the -- as certainly as a firm and we think as an industry of the initiative, but we think the initiative needs to be very carefully crafted and constrained in order to avoid some of the unintended consequences around liquidity, credit formation and what have you. So I hope, Adam, that sort of captures the essence of the question here.

在零售業，有趣的是到底哪些用例可以改善當今的世界。無論哪種情況，我只是想澄清，我們當然支持——作為一家公司，我們認為作為該倡議的一個行業，但我們認為該倡議需要非常仔細地制定和限制，以避免一些圍繞流動性、信貸形成等意想不到的後果。所以，亞當，我希望這能抓住問題的本質。

Just one follow-up would be on kind of the cost of implementation.

只有一個後續行動是關於實施成本的。

I wouldn't -- again, too early to say. In fairness, we're investing a ton in our payments platform as things stand. So I would think of it as really just a diversion of or channeling of money that we spend anyway on our payment systems rather than an increment. We are also investing in the European payments initiative as a shareholder, and some of that investment would go through sort of industry platforms rather than directly through us. But again, today, it's -- it wouldn't be a feature in our planning so much as in the future when it's more clear exactly what the system would look like.

我不會——再說一遍，現在說還太早。公平地說，就目前情況而言，我們在支付平台上投入了大量資金。因此，我認為這實際上只是我們在支付系統上花費的資金的轉移或引導，而不是增量。我們也作為股東投資歐洲支付計劃，其中一些投資將透過某種行業平台而不是直接透過我們。但今天，它不再是我們規劃中的功能，而是在未來，當我們更清楚系統到底是什麼樣子。

I will say the payment space is changing all the time. As you know, this year was the implementation of ISO 20022. So a pretty big payment system initiative went through the industry already this year. Just to give you an example of -- in any given period, there's a fair amount of work going on in the technology side by the banking industry to support the evolution of the payments infrastructure in the world. And that's something we are very committed to, given it's a very core part of our -- of the service we provide to the economy and our clients.

我想說的是，支付空間一直在改變。如您所知，今年是 ISO 20022 的實施年。因此，今年業界已經實施了一項相當大的支付系統計畫。舉個例子，在任何特定時期，銀行業都在技術方面進行了大量工作，以支持世界支付基礎設施的發展。這是我們非常致力於的事情，因為這是我們為經濟和客戶提供的服務的核心部分。

There are no further questions at this time. I hand back to Philip Teuchner for closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我將交還給 Philip Teuchner 以供結束評論。

Thank you, operator. And just to finish up, thank you all for joining us today. You know where the IR team is if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you soon again. Goodbye.

謝謝你，接線生。最後，感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您有任何其他問題，您知道 IR 團隊在哪裡，我們期待很快再次與您交談。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束，請掛斷電話。感謝您的加入，祝您有個愉快的一天。再見。