達美航空 (DAL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Delta Air Lines March Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Matthew, and I will be your coordinator. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位早上好，歡迎參加達美航空公司 2023 年三月季度財務業績電話會議。我的名字是馬修，我將是你的協調員。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Julie Stewart, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁朱莉斯圖爾特。請繼續。

Thank you, Matthew, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us for our March quarter 2023 earnings call. Joining us from Atlanta today are our CEO, Ed Bastian; our President, Glen Hauenstein; and our CFO, Dan Janki. Ed will open the call with an overview of Delta's performance and strategy, Glen will provide an update on the revenue environment, and Dan will discuss costs and our balance sheet. After the prepared remarks, we'll take analyst questions. (Operator Instructions) After the analyst Q&A, we will move to our media questions.

謝謝你，馬修，大家早上好。感謝您加入我們的 2023 年三月季度財報電話會議。今天從亞特蘭大加入我們的是我們的首席執行官 Ed Bastian；我們的總裁 Glen Hauenstein；以及我們的首席財務官 Dan Janki。 Ed 將首先概述 Delta 的業績和戰略，Glen 將提供最新的收入環境，Dan 將討論成本和我們的資產負債表。在準備好的評論之後，我們將回答分析師的問題。 （操作員說明）在分析師問答之後，我們將轉向我們的媒體問題。

Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that may cause such differences are described in Delta's SEC filings.

今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，代表我們對未來事件的信念或預期。所有前瞻性陳述均涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。 Delta 向 SEC 提交的文件中描述了可能導致此類差異的一些因素。

We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and all results exclude special items unless otherwise noted. You can find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures on the Investor Relations page at ir.delta.com.

我們還將討論非 GAAP 財務指標，除非另有說明，否則所有結果均不包括特殊項目。您可以在 ir.delta.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到我們的非 GAAP 措施的對賬。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給埃德。

Thanks, Julie. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. 2023 is off to a strong start for Delta with record advanced summer bookings, the launch of free WiFi and continued recognition as the industry leader, not only by our customers, but by Fortune, Cirium and the Wall Street Journal.

謝謝，朱莉。大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們。 2023 年對達美航空來說是一個強勁的開端，其夏季預訂量創歷史新高，免費 WiFi 的推出以及行業領導者的持續認可，不僅受到我們的客戶，而且受到財富、Cirium 和華爾街日報的認可。

During the March quarter, we generated earnings of $0.25 per share on revenue that was 45% above last year and a record for the March quarter. Delta's operating income was $550 million, a more than $1 billion improvement year-over-year, bringing our trailing 12-month operating profit to nearly $5 billion. We generated close to $2 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, reflecting robust demand for summer travel. Better-than-expected cash generation enabled us to accelerate that reduction moving us closer to our goal of returning to investment-grade metrics. All in, a very solid performance by our team in the seasonally weakest quarter of the year.

在 3 月季度，我們的收入為每股 0.25 美元，比去年同期增長 45%，創下了 3 月季度的記錄。達美航空的營業收入為 5.5 億美元，同比增長超過 10 億美元，使我們過去 12 個月的營業利潤接近 50 億美元。我們在本季度產生了近 20 億美元的自由現金流，反映了夏季旅行的強勁需求。好於預期的現金產生使我們能夠加速減少，使我們更接近我們恢復投資級指標的目標。總而言之，我們的團隊在一年中季節性最弱的季度表現非常穩定。

Delivering safe and reliable service remains our top priority, and no airline does this better than Delta. I'd like to thank our teams for all they do for our customers each and every day. The dedication, professionalism and hard work of Delta's 90,000 people worldwide are the foundation of our company.

提供安全可靠的服務仍然是我們的首要任務，達美航空在這方面做得最好。我要感謝我們的團隊每天為我們的客戶所做的一切。 Delta 全球 90,000 名員工的奉獻精神、專業精神和辛勤工作是我們公司的基礎。

Sharing our financial success with our people has always been an important part of our DNA. Our industry-leading profitability in 2022 enabled us to pay out more than $550 million in profit sharing in February. More profit sharing than the rest of the industry combined. And we're looking forward to larger payouts next year as we expect to deliver significant earnings improvement.

與我們的員工分享我們的財務成功一直是我們 DNA 的重要組成部分。我們在 2022 年行業領先的盈利能力使我們能夠在 2 月份支付超過 5.5 億美元的利潤分成。利潤分享比其他行業的總和還要多。我們期待著明年獲得更大的支出，因為我們預計會帶來顯著的收益改善。

We also rewarded eligible employees with a 5% pay increase on the 1st of April and received strong ratification from our pilots on the new 4-year contract, providing well-deserved increases for all of our people. The performance of our people and the momentum of our brand was recognized when Delta was ranked #12 overall of Fortune's World's Most Admired Company list, a remarkable statement about the resiliency of our company, given the pandemic challenges of the last few years.

我們還在 4 月 1 日獎勵了符合條件的員工 5% 的加薪，並得到了我們飛行員對新的 4 年合同的強烈認可，為我們所有的員工提供了當之無愧的加薪。達美航空在《財富》雜誌全球最受讚賞公司榜單中名列第 12 位，這充分證明了我們員工的表現和我們品牌的發展勢頭，這是對我們公司在過去幾年的大流行病挑戰中的韌性的一個了不起的證明。

Our brand is built on a foundation of service and operational reliability, and we are committed to delivering the level of service our customers expect as we ramp operations for the coming summer season. The operating teams have done a great job getting ready and we are planning to grow June quarter capacity 17% over last year to meet strong customer demand. This growth is, though, a couple of points below our initial plan to fully restore capacity this summer as we focus on delivering the best operation in the industry and remain prudent in our capacity restoration.

我們的品牌建立在服務和運營可靠性的基礎上，我們致力於在即將到來的夏季增加運營時提供客戶期望的服務水平。運營團隊在準備工作方面做得很好，我們計劃將 6 月季度的產能比去年增長 17%，以滿足強勁的客戶需求。不過，這一增長比我們今年夏天完全恢復產能的最初計劃低了幾個百分點，因為我們專注於提供業內最佳運營，並在產能恢復方面保持謹慎。

As I mentioned at last December's Capital Markets Day, aviation infrastructure is still fragile. But collectively, we're working to ensure resiliency as we manage constraints around the supply chain, aircraft delivery delays and training needs. I want to commend the FAA for collaborating with the industry to help improve the customer experience in New York by temporarily relaxing minimum flight requirements given ATC staffing challenges.

正如我在去年 12 月的資本市場日提到的那樣，航空基礎設施仍然脆弱。但總的來說，我們正在努力確保彈性，因為我們管理供應鏈、飛機交付延遲和培訓需求方面的限制。我要讚揚美國聯邦航空局與業界合作，在 ATC 人員配備挑戰的情況下暫時放寬最低飛行要求，以幫助改善紐約的客戶體驗。

Turning to our outlook. With solid first quarter performance and visibility into the strength of summer travel demand, we are confident in our full year guidance for revenue growth of 15% to 20% year-over-year, earnings of $5 to $6 per share and free cash flow of over $2 billion. The 3 main guideposts we shared with you last December.

轉向我們的前景。憑藉穩健的第一季度業績和對夏季旅遊需求強勁的可見性，我們對全年收入同比增長 15% 至 20%、每股收益 5 至 6 美元以及自由現金流為超過 20 億美元。去年 12 月我們與您分享的 3 個主要指南。

For the June quarter, we expect to deliver the highest quarterly revenue in our history, a 15% operating margin and EPS of $2 to $2.25 a share. Our forecast operating profit of $2 billion matches Q2 of 2019, demonstrating that the earnings power of this franchise is intact. Glen and Dan will provide more details on the components of our outlook.

對於 6 月季度，我們預計將實現歷史上最高的季度收入，營業利潤率為 15%，每股收益為 2 至 2.25 美元。我們預測的 20 億美元營業利潤與 2019 年第二季度相符，表明該特許經營權的盈利能力完好無損。 Glen 和 Dan 將提供有關我們展望的組成部分的更多詳細信息。

As we look to our upcoming Investor Day in June, we'll outline the long-term opportunities that we've cultivated through years of investment, building on our industry leadership position and further enhancing our long-term financial profile. One focus area will be innovation and digital technology, where we continue to grow our leadership position.

展望 6 月即將到來的投資者日，我們將概述我們通過多年投資培養的長期機會，鞏固我們的行業領導地位，並進一步提升我們的長期財務狀況。一個重點領域將是創新和數字技術，我們將在這些領域繼續鞏固我們的領導地位。

Increasingly, it's one of the reasons customers are choosing Delta with significant growth in direct bookings and higher engagement through our digital channels. We have reached an important step in our digital transformation with the rollout of fast free, high-quality WiFi, which has been a tremendous success. We began this effort several years before the pandemic, and it has required significant investment and resources to achieve.

這越來越多地成為客戶選擇達美的原因之一，直接預訂顯著增長，通過我們的數字渠道參與度更高。隨著快速免費、高質量 WiFi 的推出，我們在數字化轉型中邁出了重要一步，並取得了巨大成功。我們在大流行之前幾年就開始了這項工作，需要大量投資和資源才能實現。

In addition, this month, we began rolling out Delta Sync for SkyMiles members, which will unlock a more personalized customer experience in the air and on the ground. When customers join the SkyMiles loyalty program, it enables us to deepen our trusted relationship and create stronger brand preference. As we've rolled out fast free WiFi as well as other benefits, new SkyMiles memberships have accelerated at a record pace.

此外，本月，我們開始為“飛凡里程常客計劃”會員推出 Delta Sync，這將在空中和地面開啟更加個性化的客戶體驗。當客戶加入“飛凡里程常客計劃”忠誠度計劃時，它使我們能夠加深彼此之間的信任關係並建立更強的品牌偏好。隨著我們推出快速免費 WiFi 以及其他優惠，新的“飛凡里程常客計劃”會員資格以創紀錄的速度增加。

Growth has been particularly strong among younger customers with a record 3 million total enrollments during the quarter. Thanks to the size and growth of our loyalty program, the value of our Amex co-brand card portfolio continues to reach new highs, and leading brands are joining our consumer ecosystem, creating further opportunities. I look forward to discussing this and more about how Delta is transforming the customer experience on June 27 in Atlanta. Hope you all can join us that day.

年輕客戶的增長尤為強勁，本季度總註冊人數達到創紀錄的 300 萬。由於我們忠誠度計劃的規模和增長，我們的 Amex 聯名卡產品組合的價值不斷創新高，領先品牌正在加入我們的消費者生態系統，創造更多機會。我期待著 6 月 27 日在亞特蘭大討論這個問題以及更多關於達美航空如何改變客戶體驗的問題。希望那天你們都能加入我們。

In closing, the industry backdrop remains constructive, and we are well positioned to grow earnings and cash flow in 2023, '24 and beyond. Delta continues to set itself apart. We are on our way to transcend the industry with our leading consumer brand and deliver financial outcomes that create significant long-term value for our owners. Thank you again.

最後，行業背景仍然具有建設性，我們有能力在 2023 年、'24 年及以後增加收益和現金流。達美航空繼續脫穎而出。我們正以我們領先的消費品牌超越行業，並提供為我們的所有者創造重要長期價值的財務成果。再次感謝你。

And with that, let me hand it over to Glen for more details on our commercial performance.

就此，讓我將其交給格倫，了解有關我們商業表現的更多細節。

Thank you, Ed. I'd like to start by thanking our employees for the difference that they make every day. We delivered record March quarter revenue at $11.8 billion, 14% higher than 2019 on 2% less capacity. Total unit revenues, or PRASM, was 16% higher than the same period in 2019. These results include approximately 1-point impact from flying less capacity than initially planned.

謝謝你，埃德。首先，我要感謝我們的員工每天都在做出改變。我們在 3 月季度實現了創紀錄的 118 億美元收入，比 2019 年增長 14%，產能減少 2%。單位總收入或 PRASM 比 2019 年同期高出 16%。這些結果包括因運力低於最初計劃而產生的約 1 點影響。

Consumer demand was well ahead of pre-pandemic levels and drove strength in domestic and international travel. Business travel improved in the quarter with small and medium businesses ahead of '19 levels while managed corporate travel showed steady progress led by international.

消費者需求遠遠超過大流行前的水平，並推動了國內和國際旅行的發展。商務旅行在本季度有所改善，中小型企業領先於 19 年的水平，而託管企業旅行在國際引領下穩步發展。

Diverse revenue streams, including premium and loyalty generated 56% of total revenue in 1Q. Premium revenue growth continued to outpace the main cabin. Total loyalty and revenue grew 28% versus the prior year, with continued momentum in our American Express co-brand portfolio.

包括保費和忠誠度在內的多元化收入來源佔第一季度總收入的 56%。保費收入增長繼續超過經濟艙。總忠誠度和收入比上一年增長 28%，美國運通聯合品牌組合的勢頭持續增長。

We saw card spend up more than 20% year-over-year. This supported a record $1.7 billion of remuneration from American Express during the quarter, keeping us on track to deliver over $6.5 billion in 2023. Throughout the recovery, travel behaviors and patterns continue to evolve. The hybrid workplace is blurring the lines between business and leisure trips while the removal of change fees has increased customer flexibility, allowing them to book trips earlier.

我們看到信用卡支出同比增長超過 20%。這支持了美國運通在本季度創紀錄的 17 億美元薪酬，使我們有望在 2023 年交付超過 65 億美元。在整個複蘇過程中，旅行行為和模式不斷演變。混合工作場所模糊了商務旅行和休閒旅行之間的界限，而取消改簽費增加了客戶的靈活性，使他們能夠更早地預訂旅行。

This dynamic was more pronounced in the March quarter, and so we are continuing to adopt and see opportunities to further optimize our revenue management approach to these new travel behaviors in future months. We expect June quarter revenue to be up 15% to 17% year-over-year on capacity that is 17% higher. This implies unit revenues will be flat to down 2% compared to prior year, including a couple of point impact from higher international mix as well as lapping record cargo revenues.

這種動態在三月季度更為明顯，因此我們將繼續採用並尋找機會在未來幾個月進一步優化我們針對這些新旅行行為的收入管理方法。我們預計 6 月季度的收入將同比增長 15% 至 17%，產能增加 17%。這意味著單位收入與上一年相比將持平或下降 2%，其中包括來自更高國際組合的幾個點影響以及創紀錄的貨運收入。

For comparison to the March quarter, the midpoint of this outlook is a 3-point sequential improvement in total unit revenues versus 2019, driven by improvements in both domestic and international. Moving forward, we are sunsetting the comparisons to 2019 and returning to year-over-year metrics. Domestically, we are growing our seats mid-single digits over last year with our core hard rebuild beginning to take hold in June and accelerating through the fall.

與 3 月季度相比，這一前景的中點是在國內和國際改善的推動下，單位總收入較 2019 年連續增長 3 個百分點。展望未來，我們將取消與 2019 年的比較，並返回同比指標。在國內，我們的座位數比去年增加了個位數，我們的核心硬重建從 6 月開始，並在整個秋季加速。

On international, we are excited with the momentum we're seeing and expect record revenues and profitability for the summer travel season. To meet increasing demand, we are growing our international seats by more than 20% in the June quarter compared to prior year, and we already have about 75% of our bookings on hand.

在國際市場上，我們對看到的勢頭感到興奮，並預計夏季旅遊旺季的收入和盈利能力將創下歷史新高。為了滿足不斷增長的需求，與去年同期相比，我們在 6 月季度的國際座位數增加了 20% 以上，並且我們手頭的預訂量已經達到了大約 75%。

In the Transatlantic, we're seeing strong demand on our largest ever summer schedule. Our Amsterdam hub performance continues to improve, and we are pleased with the outlook for all of our new markets.

在跨大西洋地區，我們看到對我們有史以來最大的夏季時間表的強勁需求。我們的阿姆斯特丹樞紐性能不斷提升，我們對所有新市場的前景感到滿意。

In Latin America, momentum is continuing to build. The breadth of Delta's long-haul network to South America continues to improve as we begin to leverage our partnership with LATAM. Specific demand is accelerating, and we expect record margins meaningfully ahead of pre-pandemic levels. Our multiyear restructuring efforts in the Pacific are paying dividends, and our partnership with Korean Air is performing extremely well, providing us future growth opportunities. In closing, consistent execution of our long-term commercial strategy is supporting industry-leading margin performance and demonstrating the resiliency of our business model.

在拉丁美洲，勢頭正在繼續增強。隨著我們開始利用與 LATAM 的合作夥伴關係，達美飛往南美洲的長途網絡的廣度不斷擴大。具體需求正在加速增長，我們預計創紀錄的利潤率將大大超過大流行前的水平。我們在太平洋地區多年的重組努力正在收到回報，我們與大韓航空的合作夥伴關係表現得非常好，為我們提供了未來的增長機會。最後，我們長期商業戰略的一致執行支持行業領先的利潤率表現，並展示了我們商業模式的彈性。

The long-term investments we've made in our fleet, global network and technology pave the way for future growth and margin expansion. Thank you.

我們對機隊、全球網絡和技術的長期投資為未來的增長和利潤擴張鋪平了道路。謝謝。

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Dan to talk about the financials.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給丹來談談財務問題。

Thank you, Glen, and good morning to everyone. For the March quarter, we delivered earnings of $0.25 per share and a 4.6% operating margin in line with our guidance. Our nonfuel costs were 4.7% higher than the first quarter of 2022. This is including a 1-point impact from lower capacity primarily due to winter storms.

謝謝你，格倫，大家早上好。對於 3 月季度，我們實現了每股 0.25 美元的收益和 4.6% 的營業利潤率，符合我們的指引。我們的非燃料成本比 2022 年第一季度高出 4.7%。這包括主要由於冬季風暴導致的產能下降帶來的 1 點影響。

Fuel price for the quarter averaged $3.06 per gallon. This including a $0.25 benefit from our refinery, which continues to provide a unique hedge to fuel volatility. Our operating cash flow was $2.9 billion, that was the highest March quarter result in Delta's history. After investing $1.1 billion back into the business, we generated $1.9 billion of free cash flow.

本季度的平均燃油價格為每加侖 3.06 美元。這包括從我們的煉油廠獲得的 0.25 美元收益，該煉油廠繼續提供獨特的對沖措施來應對波動性。我們的運營現金流為 29 億美元，這是達美歷史上最高的 3 月季度業績。在將 11 億美元重新投入業務後，我們產生了 19 億美元的自由現金流。

Strong cash generation enabled $1.2 billion of debt reduction. This including accelerated debt repayment of $700 million with an average interest rate of 7%. Liquidity ended the quarter at $9.5 billion and adjusted net debt of $21 billion. Our leverage ratio improved from 5x at year-end to 3.9x at the end of March on a trailing 12-month basis.

強勁的現金產生使債務減少了 12 億美元。這包括加速償還 7 億美元的債務，平均利率為 7%。本季度末流動資金為 95 億美元，調整後的淨債務為 210 億美元。在過去 12 個月的基礎上，我們的槓桿率從年底的 5 倍提高到 3 月底的 3.9 倍。

We now expect to complete our full year planned debt reduction in the first half of the year, and we'll continue to evaluate opportunistic debt repayment. Over the last year, we accelerated more than $3 billion in debt reduction, targeting our highest cost debt and reducing our interest expense.

我們現在預計將在今年上半年完成全年計劃的債務削減，我們將繼續評估機會主義債務償還。在過去的一年裡，我們加快了超過 30 億美元的債務削減，瞄准我們成本最高的債務並減少我們的利息支出。

Recognizing this progress, we are making, S&P and Fitch both upgraded their outlook for our ratings. Returning to investment-grade metrics is a key priority. We remain focused on reducing net debt and achieving our targeted 2 to 3x leverage ratio in 2024, while continuing to consistently reinvest in the business.

認識到這一進展，我們正在取得進展，標準普爾和惠譽雙雙上調了對我們的評級展望。回歸投資級指標是一個關鍵優先事項。我們仍然專注於減少淨債務並在 2024 年實現 2 至 3 倍的槓桿率目標，同時繼續持續對業務進行再投資。

Now moving to guidance for the June quarter. On fuel, we expect our fuel price per gallon to be $2.55 to $2.80, including a $0.10 to $0.15 contribution from the refinery. While lower than that last year, I'd note that fuel prices remain volatile and are still approximately 30% higher than 2019.

現在轉向 6 月季度的指導。在燃料方面，我們預計每加侖燃料價格為 2.55 美元至 2.80 美元，其中包括煉油廠提供的 0.10 美元至 0.15 美元。雖然低於去年，但我注意到燃料價格仍然波動，仍比 2019 年高出約 30%。

On nonfuel, we expect non unit cost to be 1% to 3% higher than prior year. For the first half, we expect to grow capacity 17%, approximately 2 points less than our initial expectations, with a similar 2-point impact expected on our unit cost. More than 3 months into the year, our absolute costs are tracking as expected.

在非燃料方面，我們預計非單位成本將比上年高出 1% 至 3%。上半年，我們預計產能將增長 17%，比我們最初的預期低約 2 個百分點，預計對我們的單位成本產生類似的 2 個百分點的影響。今年已經過去 3 個多月，我們的絕對成本符合預期。

Higher labor rates are fully incorporated across the Mainline and regionals. Inflation is stabilizing, and we are in the final stages of our rebuild. By the end of June, aircraft reactivations will largely be complete and training is starting to step down with 1/3 of our pilots moving into production.

更高的勞動力率完全納入了主線和地區。通貨膨脹正在穩定，我們正處於重建的最後階段。到 6 月底，飛機的重新啟動將基本完成，培訓開始減少，我們 1/3 的飛行員將投入生產。

As I outlined on our call in January, core maintenance is higher year-over-year in the first half of the year. We expect it to decline in the second half, resulting in a 5-point year-over-year progression in our unit cost from the beginning of the year to the end. Secondly, achieving scale while restoring efficiency are Delta's largest ASM levers. The pace of capacity restoration remains the primary level.

正如我在 1 月份的電話會議上概述的那樣，今年上半年核心維護同比增長。我們預計它會在下半年下降，導致我們的單位成本從年初到年底同比增長 5 個百分點。其次，在恢復效率的同時實現規模化是台達最大的 ASM 槓桿。產能恢復速度保持初級水平。

In summary, we are confident in our year-over-year decline in the second half and expect a 10-point improvement in our unit cost progression as we progress through the year. Running the most reliable operation in the industry is key to delivering a competitive cost structure and underpins our industry-leading margins. Combined with our outlook for revenue, we expect the June quarter operating margin to be 14% to 16% and earnings to be between $2 and $2.25 per share.

總而言之，我們對下半年的同比下降充滿信心，並預計隨著我們今年的進展，我們的單位成本增長將提高 10 個百分點。運行業內最可靠的運營是提供具有競爭力的成本結構的關鍵，也是我們行業領先的利潤率的基礎。結合我們的收入前景，我們預計 6 月季度的營業利潤率為 14% 至 16%，每股收益在 2 美元至 2.25 美元之間。

With a quarter behind us and the visibility we have in the summer, we have higher confidence in our full year guidance for significant improvement in earnings and free cash flow. We are reaffirming our full year guidance for operating margins of 10% to 12%, earnings of $5 to $6 per share and more than $2 billion of free cash flow. And we remain on track to earn over $7 per share in 2024 with more than $4 billion of free cash flow.

由於落後四分之一以及我們在夏季的知名度，我們對全年收益和自由現金流顯著改善的指導更有信心。我們重申全年營業利潤率為 10% 至 12%、每股收益為 5 至 6 美元以及超過 20 億美元的自由現金流的指導方針。我們仍有望在 2024 年實現每股收益超過 7 美元，自由現金流超過 40 億美元。

So in closing, I'd like to thank the Delta people for the elevated service they provide to our customers every day. Our people will always be the Delta difference.

因此，最後，我要感謝達美員工每天為我們的客戶提供的優質服務。我們的員工永遠是 Delta 的不同之處。

Now with that, I'd like to turn it back to Julie for Q&A.

現在，我想把它轉回給 Julie 進行問答。

Matthew, can you please remind the analysts how to queue up for questions.

Matthew，能否請您提醒分析師如何排隊提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is coming from Mike Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg。

I have one question, but it's a 2-part sort of pronged revenue question maybe for Glen or Ed. There is this ongoing debate about the pace of revenue growth and whether it's moderating in domestic versus international. I know, Glen, you gave some color on that. But you did also talk about a shift in the booking curve, which I think you referred to as being pronounced. One, can you dig into that a little bit deeper and maybe how that could be having some impact on the data?

我有一個問題，但這是一個由兩部分組成的收入問題，可能是針對 Glen 或 Ed 的。關於收入增長的速度以及國內和國際收入增長是否放緩的爭論仍在繼續。我知道，格倫，你給了一些顏色。但你也談到了預訂曲線的變化，我認為你稱之為明顯的變化。第一，你能否更深入地研究一下，也許這會對數據產生一些影響？

And then number two, when I think about Delta and your network, I mean, you do have the most exposure to the industrial heartland -- and you look at the ISM number over the last 5 months, we've been contracting, right? The manufacturing sector may now be in a recession, and that's a part of the world that you have a decent amount of exposure to. What both corporate and/or discretionary that flow through sort of Detroit mini, is there any additional color that you can -- that you've seen that you can sort of elaborate with respect to that comment?

然後第二，當我想到達美航空和你們的網絡時，我的意思是，你們確實對工業中心地帶的敞口最大——看看過去 5 個月的 ISM 數據，我們一直在收縮，對吧？製造業現在可能處於衰退之中，而這是世界上你有相當多接觸的一部分。通過某種底特律迷你公司流動的公司和/或自由裁量權，是否有任何其他顏色 - 你已經看到你可以針對該評論進行詳細說明？

Sure, Mike. Let me try and answer the first one. And I'd like to just mention that on Tuesday, we had our second highest cash sales day ever. Seasonality that's starting to decline, usually those occur earlier in the year. So I think that just points to the strength of the core demand for our products and services, be it domestic or international. Just at a combined level, the #2 sales day in our total history occurring this week.

當然，邁克。讓我嘗試回答第一個問題。我想提一下，週二是我們有史以來第二高的現金銷售日。開始下降的季節性，通常發生在今年早些時候。所以我認為這只是指出了我們產品和服務的核心需求的強度，無論是國內還是國際。就綜合水平而言，本周是我們歷史上排名第二的銷售日。

And so behind that backdrop of really strong consumer demand across the board, I think what we've seen is travel patterns changing and shifting a little bit more than they did pre-pandemic. We had a lot of stability, pre-pandemic, and we're adjusting here into what I would call a new normal, and we'll figure out exactly where that lands over time. What that meant in the quarter was materialization rates actually went down a bit throughout the quarter and materialization rates to us is book to flow in ratios. Normally, just a couple of points, accelerating a couple of points more than usual, probably attributing that to the flexibility without change fees that we're seeing in the marketplace. And so that's really easy to accommodate as we just turn up slightly our overbooking levels to make sure that we capture the higher load factors.

因此，在消費者需求全面強勁的背景下，我認為我們所看到的是旅行模式的變化和變化比大流行前要多一些。在大流行之前，我們有很多穩定性，我們正在這裡調整到我稱之為新常態的狀態，我們會隨著時間的推移弄清楚它的確切位置。這在本季度意味著物化率實際上在整個季度都有所下降，對我們來說物化率是賬面流動比率。通常，只有幾個點，比平時多加速幾個點，可能將其歸因於我們在市場上看到的無需更改費用的靈活性。因此，這真的很容易適應，因為我們只是略微提高超額預訂水平，以確保我們獲得更高的載客率。

And then secondly is the booking trends inside of 30 days. And we were knowing that inside of 30 days was declining, and the strong demand was just outside of 30 days. And so the demand is very strong, and it's a matter of how many you let through the gate at what point in time. And we had, for example, wanted to go into month 3 to 4 points ahead. We're [tiling] that up a little bit to be more like 5 to 6 points ahead given that the combination of materialization rates, which has some impact on that, of course, but also where consumers are booking. I think those are just RM tactics that we're using to adjust to this new demand set. And I don't think that it indicates that there is any softness in core demand strength. So I think we feel really confident in the summer and what we have on the books and what we're seeing real time in terms of demand. And so I feel very good about that.

其次是 30 天內的預訂趨勢。我們知道 30 天以內正在下降，而強勁的需求就在 30 天之外。所以需求非常強勁，這取決於你在什麼時間點讓多少人通過大門。例如，我們想要提前 3 到 4 點進入一個月。考慮到具體化率的組合，我們將其 [tiling] 提高了一點點，更像是 5 到 6 個百分點，這當然會對此產生一些影響，但也會影響消費者的預訂。我認為這些只是我們用來適應這個新需求集的 RM 策略。而且我不認為這表明核心需求強度有任何疲軟。因此，我認為我們對夏天以及我們在賬面上所擁有的以及我們在需求方面實時看到的情況感到非常有信心。所以我對此感覺很好。

Relating to industrial recession, we don't really see that. As a matter of fact, if you look at Minneapolis and Detroit, they're actually ahead. Now they're the least restored of our hubs right now, particularly in Detroit, one tick below the rest of the system. But you've also had rationalization in competing hubs in the region. And so there's -- will you say, okay, well, maybe some of the industrials. These hubs are not point-to-point like Boston or New York, they're really the connecting flow within the U.S. So there's opportunity as we continue to restore those networks to put more flow on the network, not 100% resilient reliant, of course, on Detroit, mostly relying on the flow traffic that flows over to Detroit. So I think what we're seeing, we see strength in all of our core hubs. Our core hubs are less restored than our coastal gateways, and that's one of the upsides that we have for the rest of the year as we move through the year. And they're producing incredible returns and incredibly strong demand sets.

關於工業衰退，我們並沒有真正看到這一點。事實上，如果你看看明尼阿波利斯和底特律，他們實際上領先。現在，它們是我們目前恢復最少的樞紐，尤其是在底特律，比系統的其餘部分低一個刻度。但你也對該地區的競爭中心進行了合理化。所以有 - 你會說，好吧，好吧，也許是一些工業。這些樞紐不像波士頓或紐約那樣是點對點的，它們實際上是美國境內的連接流。因此，隨著我們繼續恢復這些網絡，我們有機會在網絡上增加流量，而不是 100% 彈性依賴，當然，在底特律，主要是靠流向底特律的流量。所以我認為我們所看到的是，我們在所有核心樞紐中都看到了實力。與我們的沿海門戶相比，我們的核心樞紐得到的修復較少，這是我們在今年餘下時間裡的優勢之一。他們正在產生令人難以置信的回報和令人難以置信的強勁需求。

Your next question is coming from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jamie Baker。

Glen, as we think about the swing year-on-year in the second quarter from domestic strength last year to international momentum this year. Do you recall what the domestic portion of the international journey contributed to last year's second quarter domestic revenue, what it's likely to contribute this year and what the normal second quarter contribution used to be?

格倫，當我們考慮到第二季度從去年的國內實力到今年的國際勢頭的同比波動時。您是否還記得國際旅行的國內部分對去年第二季度國內收入的貢獻、今年可能的貢獻以及第二季度的正常貢獻是什麼？

Domestic portion of international journey is right around 10% of domestic travel. So it's not that big of an impact. And last year was probably 7% or 8%, and this year it's probably going to be 8% or 9%. So I wouldn't say there's significant changes in that. The summer, of course, is highly reliant on the local demand since we sit in very big local markets for international marketplace. So New York and JFK being the largest in particular. And generally, if you can take local, you prefer local because yields are higher. So -- and JFK is largely 80% local for international travel. So maybe let's rely on Atlanta, of course, has more flow on it, but still a large local component.

國際旅行的國內部分約佔國內旅行的10%。所以影響不是很大。去年可能是 7% 或 8%，今年可能會是 8% 或 9%。所以我不會說這方面有重大變化。當然，夏季高度依賴當地需求，因為我們位於非常大的國際市場本地市場。所以紐約和肯尼迪是最大的。一般來說，如果你能拿當地的，你會更喜歡當地的，因為收益率更高。所以——肯尼迪國際機場在很大程度上是 80% 的本地國際旅行。所以也許讓我們依靠亞特蘭大，當然，它有更多的流量，但仍然是一個很大的本地組件。

Okay. Helpful. And as we assess the, I guess, achievability of the second quarter revenue guide, could you disclose what percent of revenue is already booked by entity, international tends to book further in advance. So I'm assuming that's your highest confidence. Are we 70% booked internationally and 40% domestically? 60/30?

好的。有幫助。當我們評估第二季度收入指南的可實現性時，您能否透露實體已經預訂的收入百分比，國際傾向於提前預訂。所以我假設這是你的最高信心。我們是否有 70% 的國際預訂和 40% 的國內預訂？ 60/30？

We are 75% internationally, and we're significantly less than that domestically. But...

我們在國際上佔 75%，遠低於國內。但...

Your next question is coming from David Vernon from Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的大衛弗農。

Glen, please don't drop the mic. Question for you. Can you walk us through why revenues maybe came in at the lower end of the 1Q range? And talk to whether there's anything in there that was trailing off through the quarter? I ask this because the market is really struggling with whether Delta is limping or leaping into the June quarter? And any color on what drove the source of weakness in 1Q and whether that may carry forward in the 2Q could help a lot.

格倫，請不要放下話筒。給你的問題。你能告訴我們為什麼收入可能會出現在 1Q 範圍的低端嗎？並談談是否有任何東西在整個季度都在下降？我問這個是因為市場真的在為達美航空進入 6 月季度是步履蹣跚還是躍升而苦苦掙扎？關於導致第一季度疲軟根源的任何顏色，以及是否可以在第二季度延續下去，都會有很大幫助。

Clearly, I think we talked a little bit about the 2 components. One was we had 1-point less of capacity, driven by some weather events and recovering from those weather events. The second is the fact that the lower materialization rates in the RM systems adapting to those that we couldn't do it real time because you have to see if they're stable before you adjust for them. So I think that's what we're looking at in the second quarter. And as we mentioned in the -- versus '19, we have positive momentum in 1Q to 2Q, both domestically and internationally. So I think we're feeling -- I know there's a lot of anxiety about domestic demand for the summer, but we don't share that anxiety.

顯然，我認為我們稍微討論了這兩個組件。一是由於一些天氣事件以及從這些天氣事件中恢復，我們的容量減少了 1 個百分點。第二個事實是，RM 系統中較低的實現率會適應我們無法實時執行的那些，因為您必須在調整之前查看它們是否穩定。所以我認為這就是我們在第二季度看到的。正如我們在 - 與'19相比，我們在國內和國際的第一季度到第二季度都有積極的勢頭。所以我認為我們的感覺——我知道人們對夏季的國內需求有很多擔憂，但我們並不認同這種擔憂。

Okay. And then maybe just as a quick follow-up. You mentioned sort of corporate domestic or core domestic sort of corporate bookings is 85% recovered. Is the expectation -- can you talk a little bit bigger picture about how you expect that to trend throughout the rest of this year based on the research work you've done, based on what your bigger corporate flyers are telling you right now and the level of certainty that maybe they have on some of those plans?

好的。然後可能只是快速跟進。你提到的企業國內或核心國內企業預訂類型已恢復 85%。是期望——你能否根據你所做的研究工作、根據你更大的公司傳單現在告訴你的內容以及他們對其中一些計劃的確定程度？

Right. Our corporate travelers are telling us they expect that to continue to accelerate. The -- we are not counting that in our -- we're counting a stable 85% revenue, 75% of traffic.

正確的。我們的商務旅客告訴我們，他們預計這種情況會繼續加速。 - 我們沒有計算在我們的 - 我們計算穩定的 85% 的收入，75% 的流量。

That's in the 2Q guidance?

那是在 2Q 指南中？

Yes.

是的。

Your next question is coming from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

Maybe switching gears a little bit. It looks like capacity in 2Q is a couple of points lower than you were thinking back in December. Where is that? Is that mostly coming out of the domestic market? And along those lines, as you go into the summer months, how do you kind of think about the 4 entities? I know you gave a little color on international domestic for 2Q, but just a little bit further in.

也許換檔一點點。看起來第二季度的產能比你在 12 月份想的要低幾個百分點。哪裡是？這主要是來自國內市場嗎？沿著這些思路，當你進入夏季時，你如何看待這 4 個實體？我知道你在 2Q 的國際國內有一些色彩，但只是稍微深入一點。

Yes. It's being driven by our desire to ensure that we have an industry-leading operational. And what we saw in the March quarter was we had a little bit longer than we would like in recovering from weather events. So we can as where the shortfalls were and they were primarily in the domestic narrowbodies that we want to ensure we have the right resources behind them because we know we'll have weather events in the summer as we always do. So it was just a bit of a step back, not really by demand, but really by supply, our supply was a little bit more constrained than we had hoped. And that should provide us the ability to provide whatever level we want of capacity in the fall depending on how the global environment shapes up.

是的。這是由我們希望確保我們擁有行業領先的運營的願望推動的。我們在三月季度看到的是，我們從天氣事件中恢復的時間比我們希望的要長一點。因此，我們可以了解短缺的地方，它們主要存在於國內窄體飛機中，我們希望確保我們擁有合適的資源支持它們，因為我們知道我們將像往常一樣在夏季遇到天氣事件。所以這只是後退了一點，不是真正的需求，而是供應，我們的供應比我們希望的要多一些。這應該使我們能夠根據全球環境的變化情況，在秋季提供我們想要的任何級別的容量。

Understood. And then maybe a question for Dan. There seems to be less kind of cost of prices this year. Could you talk a little bit about what's leading to that better predictability?

明白了。然後也許有一個問題要問 Dan。今年的價格成本似乎有所下降。你能談談是什麼導致了更好的可預測性嗎？

We're just deeper into the restoration. And I think as we've gotten deeper in, we continue to have better visibility to that. We've all the labor dialed in as we've talked about. You're seeing stabilization in the regionals. That was one that we chased last year. As it relates to third-party suppliers, the peak of the contract inquiries and repricing was heavy in fourth quarter of '21 begin in the first half of '22. And if you look at those requests, coming in, they've dropped up meaningfully for that. So I think you're starting to see that stabilization in the inflation component of third-party and coming in very in line with what we expected from that perspective. So just better visibility. I think we're deeper into the restoration. So operationally, arms on it related to that. So our absolute cost visibility is good at this point in time. Certainly, the unit cost metric, as we've talked about, is impacted by the ultimate capacity that we fly.

我們只是更深入地進行修復。而且我認為，隨著我們深入了解，我們將繼續對此有更好的了解。正如我們所說的，我們已經投入了所有的工作。你看到區域性的穩定。那是我們去年追逐的。由於與第三方供應商有關，從 22 年上半年開始，21 年第四季度合同詢價和重新定價的高峰期很重。如果您查看這些請求，就會發現它們為此有意義地下降了。所以我認為你開始看到第三方通貨膨脹部分的穩定，並且非常符合我們從這個角度的預期。所以只是更好的可見性。我認為我們對修復工作進行得更深入。所以在操作上，武器與此相關。所以我們的絕對成本可見性在這個時間點是好的。當然，正如我們所討論的，單位成本指標受到我們飛行的最終容量的影響。

Your next question is coming from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Most of the sort of short-term revenue questions have been asked. But just on corporate, can you talk a little bit about maybe the changes, if any, that you saw since mid-March? Any commentary on financial services or banking in particular? And then relatedly, there's so much -- there's so many headlines around technology and layoffs, and I know you're less levered to that. But could you just contrast how recovered is the technology vertical from a corporate travel perspective relative to other industries that you serve?

大多數此類短期收入問題都已被問及。但就企業而言，您能否談談您自 3 月中旬以來看到的變化（如果有的話）？對金融服務或銀行業有何評論？然後與此相關的是，關於技術和裁員的頭條新聞太多了，我知道你對此的影響不大。但是，您能否從公司差旅的角度對比垂直技術相對於您服務的其他行業的恢復情況？

Sure. Technology is one of the least recovery. Financial services is actually showing some momentum surprisingly. And so I think as we think about our geographic pull, one of the things we're excited about is New York was really not back last year. And of course, we have a lot of exposure to New York, and we're seeing really good -- New York not only as an origin market improvement, but New York is a destination market improvements as well. So that should bode well for us for the summer. And again, I think what's really interesting is more of the floor lines between the yields of corporate and high-yield leisure that didn't exist back pre-pandemic 5 years ago. And so we're not selling those premium seats to corporates, we are selling them at near corporate rates to high-end leisure customers, and that's really providing a very nice inflation for us.

當然。技術是恢復最少的技術之一。金融服務實際上令人驚訝地顯示出一些勢頭。所以我認為，當我們考慮我們的地理吸引力時，我們感到興奮的一件事是紐約去年真的沒有回來。當然，我們對紐約有很多接觸，而且我們看到的非常好——紐約不僅是原產地市場的改善，而且紐約也是目的地市場的改善。所以這對我們夏天來說應該是個好兆頭。再一次，我認為真正有趣的更多是企業和高收益休閒收益之間的底線，這在 5 年前大流行前並不存在。因此，我們不會將這些高級座位出售給企業，而是以接近企業的價格將其出售給高端休閒客戶，這確實為我們提供了非常好的通貨膨脹。

Duane, just one thing I'd add to that is that you're seeing corporately a pretty significant push to get offers -- workers back in the office, and we have seen a high correlation between the opening of offices with the return of corporate travel, principally with consultancies, advisers, people being available to take meetings -- and so that underlies the strength. And I think you're going to continue to see that over the course of the year is going to be, I think, a good tailwind for us on the corporate revenue front.

Duane，我要補充的一件事是，你看到公司在努力爭取獲得工作機會——員工回到辦公室，我們已經看到辦公室開設與公司回歸之間的高度相關性旅行，主要是諮詢、顧問、可以參加會議的人——因此這是實力的基礎。而且我認為你會繼續看到，在這一年中，我認為，這對我們在企業收入方面來說是一個很好的順風。

And then just on -- for my follow-up, with respect to the core hub restoration and maybe getting back some of your RASM premium to the extent that you see that as a driver where are we on core hub restoration and sort of what part of the calendar as we think about the balance of 2023, would you expect that to really contribute?

然後繼續 - 對於我的後續行動，關於核心樞紐恢復，可能會收回你的一些 RASM 溢價到你認為作為驅動程序的程度我們在核心樞紐恢復上的位置以及什麼部分當我們考慮 2023 年的餘額時，您認為這會真正做出貢獻嗎？

No, thanks for that question because I think it's very important. I think when we outlined back in December, core restoration is one of the highlights of 2023 that distinctive about Delta's. What we didn't say is when that occurred in '23 and kind of [a Macapa] on that because in the first half of the year, that really wasn't what happened. And it starts right around now and it goes through the fall. So that should be really a key driver for us as we move through the back half of the year both on cost and on revenue.

不，謝謝你提出這個問題，因為我認為它非常重要。我認為當我們在 12 月概述時，核心恢復是 2023 年與達美航空不同的亮點之一。我們沒有說的是那件事發生在 23 年的時候，有點像 [Macapa]，因為在今年上半年，這真的不是發生的事情。它從現在開始，一直持續到秋天。因此，在我們今年下半年的成本和收入方面，這對我們來說應該是一個真正的關鍵驅動力。

Yes, revenue and costs, yes.

是的，收入和成本，是的。

Your next question is coming from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

So the range of outcomes on revenue is still pretty wide for the full year. I was just curious if you could unpack the high and low assumptions, presumably, you have pretty good visibility on the first half. Just curious on the swing factors as you think about the second half for your revenue.

因此，全年的收入結果範圍仍然很大。我只是好奇你是否可以解開高假設和低假設，大概，你對上半年有很好的了解。當您考慮下半年的收入時，只是對搖擺因素感到好奇。

I think we see the same reports that all everybody sees. I think Ed outlined very well that we think there is still remaining pent-up demand from the $300 billion that was not spent on airline travel during the pandemic. So we'll see how that plays out in the fall, and we have a lot of flexibility in terms of what we offer as we get out of the summer. What we're saying today is we are confident through the summer. And then we'll take another look as we get closer to it, do we see any demand trends changing. I think what we hear from the marketplace, everybody is looking for those lines, we don't see them right now. So we would tell you if we did. And if we do see them, we'll make the adjustments that would be required for the fall.

我認為我們看到的報告與所有人看到的相同。我認為埃德很好地概述了我們認為在大流行期間未花費在航空旅行上的 3000 億美元仍然存在被壓抑的需求。因此，我們將在秋季看到它的效果如何，並且我們在夏季結束後提供的服務方面有很大的靈活性。我們今天要說的是，我們對整個夏天充滿信心。然後，當我們越來越接近它時，我們會再看看，我們是否會看到任何需求趨勢發生變化。我認為我們從市場上聽到的，每個人都在尋找這些產品線，我們現在看不到它們。所以如果我們這樣做了，我們會告訴你。如果我們確實看到了它們，我們將進行秋季所需的調整。

Okay. And then maybe following up on Savi's earlier question. Dan, I think you mentioned that you have 2 points lower capacity in the first half, which is certain CASM ex. And I don't think you changed your 2023 capacity and cost guidance. So just curious like what the offsets might be? Or is the first half impact just going to impact the full year from that level?

好的。然後可能跟進 Savi 之前的問題。丹，我想你提到你在上半場的能力下降了 2 分，這是肯定的 CASM ex。而且我不認為你改變了 2023 年的產能和成本指導。所以只是好奇偏移量可能是多少？還是上半年的影響只會從那個水平影響全年？

Yes. We -- sure, Conor. We had the 2-point impact on capacity. That had a 2-point impact on unit cost. We're still sitting here in April. So we have a lot of the year to play out as it relates to capacity. And as we progress through the year and set that, that will ultimately determine it. If you went through the year, and you made that up, you pick that up. If not, it would have a corresponding impact on unit cost as you progress. But as we talked about on the point with (inaudible) our visibility to absolute cost is clear and better than it's been in the restoration.

是的。我們——當然，康納。我們對容量產生了 2 點影響。這對單位成本產生了 2 點的影響。四月份我們還坐在這裡。所以我們今年有很多時間可以發揮作用，因為它與容量有關。隨著我們在這一年中取得進展並設定這一點，這將最終決定它。如果你經歷了這一年，並且你彌補了這一點，你就會選擇它。否則，隨著您的進步，它會對單位成本產生相應的影響。但正如我們談到的那樣（聽不清），我們對絕對成本的可見性是清晰的，並且比恢復時更好。

And as you go through the back half, you get that inflection point, the points that we've talked about with core maintenance stepping down from being a headwind to a 2- to 3-point benefit. And as Glen talked about with the restoration of the hubs, you start to pick up scale and efficiency associated with that. And the rebuild steps down. So that gives us confidence in the progression ultimately will be where on a unit basis, where do you fall out as it relates to capacity impact that has. But as you know here, we're focused on running a great operation and the alignment is to the primary financial outcomes which is margins, earnings and cash.

當你經過後半部分時，你會得到那個拐點，我們已經討論過核心維護從逆風下降到 2 到 3 點的好處。正如 Glen 談到恢復樞紐時，您開始獲得與之相關的規模和效率。重建工作逐步結束。因此，這讓我們對進展最終將在單位基礎上的進展充滿信心，因為它與容量影響有關，所以你會在哪裡失敗。但正如你在這裡所知，我們專注於開展一項偉大的業務，並且與主要財務成果保持一致，即利潤率、收益和現金。

Your next question is coming from Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Catherine O'Brien。

Maybe just a follow-up on the cost side. Just a clarification on that 10-point cost progression. With March quarter up just under 5%? Does that mean we should be modeling December quarter to be down 5%? Or how should we be thinking about that 10 points? And then that improvement -- that's [driven by] cost you have really good visibility on, right? So timing of maintenance events, I think you said that's a 5-point swing and then some benefit from planned training decelerating. If you could just talk a little bit more about that, that would be great.

也許只是成本方面的後續行動。只是對 10 點成本進展的澄清。 3 月季度增長略低於 5%？這是否意味著我們應該將 12 月季度建模為下降 5%？或者我們應該如何考慮這 10 點？然後是改進——這是 [由] 成本驅動的，你對它有很好的了解，對吧？所以維護事件的時間安排，我想你說過這是一個 5 點的擺動，然後從計劃的訓練減速中受益。如果你能多談一點，那就太好了。

Yes. No. That's right. You think about the 10-point progression from beginning to end, and that would be down mid-single digits from that perspective. The maintenance is the 5 points -- 4 to 5 points related to first half being up to back half being down. The other drivers there is rebuilt, does transition rebuild costs. We incur about 80%, 85% of them in the first half of the year, really aircraft reactivations, it's training, it's hiring components. Those step down. And I mentioned that in the prepared remarks, pilots being one of the crews being one of them. We're putting 600 pilots into production. So it's really the first time over the last 18 months that are actually -- school house will actually step down here during the second quarter. And then the other components are the efficiency, scale and efficiency that starts to step in as you get the core rebuild about 5 points of aircraft utilization, and we just get a better use of our facilities and our people as we progress through the back half.

是的。不，沒錯。你想想從開始到結束的 10 點進展，從那個角度來看，這將下降到中個位數。維護是 5 分——4 到 5 分與上半場上升到後半場下降有關。那裡的其他驅動程序是重建的，沒有過渡重建成本。我們在今年上半年招致了大約 80%，其中 85%，真正的飛機重新啟動，它是培訓，它是招聘組件。那些下台。我在準備好的發言中提到，飛行員是其中的一名機組人員。我們正在將 600 名飛行員投入生產。因此，這實際上是過去 18 個月以來的第一次 - 校舍實際上將在第二季度降級。然後其他組成部分是效率、規模和效率，當您獲得大約 5 個飛機利用率的核心重建時開始介入，隨著我們在後半段取得進展，我們只是更好地利用我們的設施和我們的人員.

Great. Makes a lot of sense. And then maybe one for Glen. Can we just dig into the corporate sales international ex-China, 90% recovered. Can you just walk us through how that looks from your different cabins? Or business class cabins running at a similar level restored? And then by type of trip, are you still seeing a similar number like out and back roadware type trips as you were pre-covid?

偉大的。很有道理。然後也許是給格倫的。我們能否深入挖掘除中國以外的企業國際銷售，恢復了 90%。你能給我們介紹一下你的不同小屋的樣子嗎？還是恢復了類似水平的商務艙？然後按旅行類型，您是否仍然看到與 covid 之前類似的出行次數，例如外出和返回的公路旅行？

Great question. The -- most of the business travel internationally is in the front cabin. So I'd say 75% to 80% is in the front cabin. So that's fueling front cabin's strength. I'd say all of our premium products in the long-haul international markets are doing incredibly well. This is really the first year we have premium economy at scale. About 85% of our flights long-haul now have that will be 100% by next year. But -- so we're flying this for the first time with ubiquity in the international arena, and we're seeing amazing results on the premium economy count at the Premium Select. So very excited about the rebound in international travel, both leisure as well as business.

很好的問題。 -- 大多數國際商務旅行都在前艙。所以我會說 75% 到 80% 是在前艙。所以這增加了前艙的強度。我想說我們在長途國際市場上的所有優質產品都表現得非常好。這確實是我們第一年大規模推出高端經濟艙。現在，我們大約 85% 的長途航班擁有這一比例，到明年將達到 100%。但是——所以我們第一次在國際舞台上無處不在地飛行，我們在高級選擇中看到了高級經濟艙數量的驚人結果。對國際旅行的反彈感到非常興奮，包括休閒和商務。

Now what was the second part of your question? I'm sorry.

現在你的問題的第二部分是什麼？對不起。

Yes. Just like on the type of trip, are you still seeing those kind of like shorter road warrior out-and-back type trips to the same degree? Or are you seeing the length of trip change at all here?

是的。就像在旅行類型上一樣，您是否仍然看到相同程度的短途公路勇士往返式旅行？還是您在這裡看到旅行的長度發生了變化？

We are seeing the length of trip change and road warriors are not staying 1 day, day trips are down. And that's really what we're trying to harness here as we move forward is, normally, we would use AP, advanced purchase as one of the big key drivers for separating our business versus leisure. Now it's really stay. And even with stay, it's not as defined as it used to be. So -- those are the fences we're trying to rearrange how we think about our pricing systems and fencing. We don't want to get too much into how we think about that. But clearly, AP is one that we're leading out of.

我們看到旅行的長度發生變化，公路勇士不再停留 1 天，一日遊減少了。在我們前進的過程中，這真的是我們在這裡試圖利用的，通常情況下，我們會使用 AP，提前購買作為將我們的業務與休閒分開的主要驅動力之一。現在真的是留下來了。即使留下來，它也不像以前那樣定義。所以 - 這些是我們試圖重新安排我們對定價系統和圍欄的看法的圍欄。我們不想過多地了解我們對此的看法。但很明顯，AP 是我們領先的一個。

Your next question is coming from Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

I got just a couple of near-term follow-ups and then a longer-term question. So the 70% booked for Europe and significantly less domestically, how does that compare with pre-pandemic sort of levels entering Q2. And then the overall unit revenue flat to down slightly, is there a difference domestically, internationally on the year-over-year trend?

我只得到了幾個近期的跟進，然後是一個長期的問題。因此，70% 的訂單是為歐洲預訂的，而在國內預訂的要少得多，這與進入第二季度的大流行前水平相比如何。然後整體單位收入持平或略有下降，國內和國際的同比趨勢是否存在差異？

We are -- 75% is about where we would expect to be at this point in time for international long-haul. Domestic, we are within a couple of points where we would expect to be. It's really the -- how much you want to take in advance. And when you think about 90 days, it's not all 90 days, inside of 30 days, we want to be ahead. So that's the difference.

我們是 - 75% 是我們目前預期的國際長途航線。在國內，我們處於我們預期的幾個點之內。這真的是 - 你想提前多少。當你想到 90 天時，這不僅僅是 90 天，在 30 天內，我們希望領先。這就是區別。

Second question, I'm sorry.

第二個問題，不好意思。

There was just like the RASM for the unit revenue flat to down slightly for Q2, is there a difference domestic, international?

就像第二季度單位收入的 RASM 持平或略有下降一樣，國內和國際有區別嗎？

Yes, it's a mix difference. International is up significantly and domestic is relatively flat versus year-over-year.

是的，這是一個混合差異。國際顯著上升，而國內與去年同期相比相對持平。

And then, Ed, you -- on the prepared comments, you said you expect strong earnings growth again in 2024. Is that a market macro comment? Or are there company-specific tailwinds that you have that you can share? Just like when I look at the second half guide, right, it's sort of flattish year-over-year. So what changes in '24 to get back to strong earnings growth, anything company-specific?

然後，Ed，你——在準備好的評論中，你說你預計 2024 年盈利將再次強勁增長。這是市場宏觀評論嗎？或者是否有您可以分享的公司特定的有利因素？就像我看下半年指南時一樣，對，它與去年同期相比有點持平。那麼 24 年有什麼變化可以恢復強勁的盈利增長，有什麼公司特有的嗎？

Well, I don't know what you're inferring on the second half guide. We really haven't given a second half guide. I think you're just backing into the overall -- we haven't updated our full year. I think it's too early in the year to give an updated '23 guide. But if you look at our '24 guide, it's to get to north of $7 a share. And that's the trajectory we're on. And to -- one comment I made, which I haven't heard anyone pick up on for the second quarter forecast we are forecasting to be already at $2 billion of operating profit, which is the same amount that we were at the second quarter of '19. It's quite a statement in terms of how the recovery is going and you consider that at a much higher fuel price, it's a much higher labor rates, and it's also with the system not restored.

好吧，我不知道你在下半場指南中推斷出什麼。我們真的沒有給出下半場指南。我認為你只是回到整體——我們還沒有更新我們的全年。我認為現在提供更新的 23 指南還為時過早。但是，如果您查看我們的 24 年指南，就會發現每股收益超過 7 美元。這就是我們的軌跡。並且 - 我發表的一個評論，我沒有聽到任何人接受第二季度的預測，我們預測營業利潤已經達到 20 億美元，這與我們第二季度的營業利潤相同'19。就復甦的進展情況而言，這是一個很好的聲明，你認為在高得多的燃料價格下，這是一個高得多的人工費率，而且系統也沒有恢復。

So I think all of that gives you continued opportunities. We're looking to take the nonfuel CASM down in the back half of the year, which is going to be a meaningful tailwind for us. We don't see revenue declines in terms of demand strength. I know everyone has their own point of view on that, and we don't have a great crystal ball beyond the next 4 or 5 months. But from what we're hearing from our travelers, what we're hearing from the market, what we're hearing from agencies, this is a very different recovery trajectory and other consumer businesses are experiencing.

所以我認為所有這些都給了你持續的機會。我們希望在今年下半年降低非燃料 CASM，這對我們來說將是一個有意義的順風。我們沒有看到需求強度方面的收入下降。我知道每個人對此都有自己的觀點，在接下來的 4 或 5 個月之後，我們沒有一個好的水晶球。但從我們從旅行者那裡聽到的、我們從市場上聽到的、我們從代理商那裡聽到的，這是一個非常不同的複蘇軌跡，其他消費者企業正在經歷。

Your next question is coming from Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Didora。

So the $11 billion air traffic liability, pretty staggering number here versus the $6 billion to $7 billion that you had in 2019. I assume it's this number that gives you a lot of the confidence in your outlook. But I guess my question, just curious if any of the dynamics within the ATL have changed today versus a pre-pandemic where maybe a lower percentage gets translated into revenues because of no change fees or something else? Just curious there.

因此，110 億美元的空中交通負債，與 2019 年的 60 億至 70 億美元相比，這是一個相當驚人的數字。我認為正是這個數字讓你對自己的前景充滿信心。但我想我的問題是，只是好奇今天 ATL 內部的任何動態與大流行前相比是否發生了變化，在大流行前可能由於沒有更改費或其他原因，較低的百分比轉化為收入？那裡只是好奇。

Yes, let me -- a few things. One, I think the level of it is what gives us confidence in the second quarter revenue and revenue through this summer. The strength that we're seeing both internationally and domestic. You get the benefit of the people more comfortable booking longer elongation of the curve. You certainly have fares that are up. But I also think, Delta, with the policies that we've taken during this period of time being customer-focused, customer-friendly, people have gotten comfortable with no change fees and booking out, and that's driven the elongation of the curve. And we've seen the behavior within that to be very consistent in regards to how it's been performing. So yes, it's a step up, but I think it's a sign of strength. And in regards to the customers feeling comfortable with the policies and changes that we've made.

是的，讓我 - 一些事情。第一，我認為它的水平讓我們對第二季度的收入和今年夏天的收入充滿信心。我們在國際和國內看到的力量。你得到的好處是人們更舒適地預訂更長的曲線伸長率。你肯定有漲價的票價。但我也認為，達美航空，由於我們在這段時間裡採取的以客戶為中心、對客戶友好的政策，人們已經對不收取改簽費和預訂感到滿意，這推動了曲線的延長。我們已經看到其中的行為在其表現方面非常一致。所以是的，這是一個進步，但我認為這是力量的象徵。關於客戶對我們所做的政策和更改感到滿意。

And just as a follow-up, Ed, we spoke about kind of -- I know you've been tweaking down capacity a little bit. But what have you done from an operational perspective to minimize the risk of having the disruptions that you saw during last year's summer peak?

作為後續行動，埃德，我們談到了——我知道你一直在稍微降低容量。但是，從運營的角度來看，您做了哪些工作來最大程度地降低去年夏季高峰期出現的中斷風險？

The teams have -- well, we spent a lot of time in regards to just ensuring that we have the right resources in the right places with the right level of training. So a lot of efforts gone into this over the month after month after month across the operating teams, everything from the crew activity and ensuring that we're aligned network to crewing all the way down into tech operations in regards to the staffing that we have in place as it relates to line maintenance, they're continuing to focus on turnaround time regarding aircraft out of service and the associated items. So we continue to be ensuring that we're putting those types of capabilities, buffers in place for the readiness, and then the proactive actions that we talked about with adjusting June capacity based on -- Glen mentioned it. The resiliency and the ability to recover from storms. We know that they will happen in the summer, and we're targeting that around areas that we want to ensure that we have deeper resiliency around and the teams are focused on that.

團隊已經 - 好吧，我們花了很多時間來確保我們在正確的地方擁有正確的資源和正確的培訓水平。因此，在一個月又一個月又一個月的時間裡，運營團隊為此付出了很多努力，從船員活動到確保我們的網絡保持一致，再到船員一直到技術運營方面的人員配備。由於與航線維護相關，他們繼續關注停飛飛機和相關項目的周轉時間。因此，我們將繼續確保我們將這些類型的能力、緩衝區準備就緒，然後我們談到調整 6 月產能時所討論的積極行動——格倫提到了這一點。從風暴中恢復的彈性和能力。我們知道它們會在夏天發生，我們的目標是圍繞我們希望確保我們有更深層次彈性的領域，並且團隊專注於此。

If I could add to Dan's comments, one major thing in addition is that our team has another year under their belt of experience. We have a very young team out there and leaders as well as frontline employees and getting through another year gives you a lot more confidence in terms of what we're seeing.

如果我可以補充 Dan 的評論，另外一件重要的事情是我們的團隊又多了一年的經驗。我們有一個非常年輕的團隊，領導者和一線員工，再過一年會讓你對我們所看到的更有信心。

Secondly, we are pretty much through the hiring. We've been still higher, but the hiring rates that we're at now are just normal hiring rates for normal attrition, not of the massive bulge that we needed to go through to restore the business. And so not only are we able to reduce the focus on getting out and hiring people we can take the people that have been doing the training and put them back in the business because our employees train and we have some of the very best employees that do the training. So getting them back focused into the business for the summer will also be a very nice benefit as we go through this. But there's a list of (inaudible) 50 things that we're doing that we review in great detail, and we're confident it's going to be a very, very strong operational summer for Delta customers.

其次，我們幾乎完成了招聘工作。我們一直更高，但我們現在的招聘率只是正常自然減員的正常招聘率，而不是我們為恢復業務而需要經歷的大規模招聘率。因此，我們不僅能夠減少對離職和僱用人員的關注，我們還可以讓接受過培訓的人員重返業務，因為我們的員工接受過培訓，而且我們有一些最優秀的員工可以做到培訓。因此，讓他們在夏天重新專注於業務也將是一個非常好的好處，因為我們會經歷這個。但是有一份我們正在做的（聽不清）50 件事的清單，我們會詳細審查這些事情，我們相信這對達美客戶來說將是一個非常、非常強大的運營夏季。

Your next question is coming from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski。

Glen, I'm going to ask kind of a nerdy one, but your load factor did seem to step down sequentially in the first quarter. Did that have an impact from this actualization factor that you're talking about? And I guess, can you expand on how you control for that in the future with your RM system? Do we even get to like backwardation on yields or no?

格倫，我要問一個書呆子，但你的負載率似乎在第一季度連續下降。這是否對您所說的實現因素產生了影響？我想，您能否擴展一下您將來如何使用 RM 系統對此進行控制？我們甚至會喜歡收益率逆價差嗎？

I think really, there's 2 things I talk about in that, Brandon. One I just want to mention, even though it wasn't in the question was there's 2 things we need to do better next year. And one is harness the demand set better, that is the new norm and post-pandemic world. And I think we're getting that real time now. and we'll make those adjustments. And so materialization rate is relatively easy to combat because it just relates to your overbooking model. So if you were at 103% on average, and you have 2 extra points, you just go to 105 in terms of what your ability to take is, there's a little bit of risk in that. And so we probably won't go to 105 right away. We go to 104, see how that works (inaudible) and that's why you have to retrain yourself and see what the actual events happen because these are changing in relatively condensed time periods, we don't want to overshoot and cause a disruption. So we're going to be a little bit more careful on getting that real time.

我認為真的，布蘭登，我在其中談到了兩件事。我只想提一提，儘管這不在問題中，但明年我們需要做兩件事。一個是更好地利用需求集，即新規範和大流行後世界。而且我認為我們現在正在獲得實時性。我們會做出這些調整。因此實現率相對容易控制，因為它只與您的超額預訂模型有關。因此，如果您的平均得分為 103%，並且有 2 個額外點，那麼就您的承受能力而言，您只需達到 105，這就存在一點風險。所以我們可能不會馬上去 105。我們轉到 104，看看它是如何工作的（聽不清），這就是為什麼你必須重新訓練自己，看看實際發生了什麼，因為這些事件在相對緊湊的時間段內發生變化，我們不想過衝並造成中斷。因此，我們將更加謹慎地獲取實時信息。

But the other piece is doing the whole network over better next year, right, is that we saw travel patterns of all that are very different than pre-pandemic and where people are flying. And so as we get to -- one of the things that gives us real confidence about improving next year over this year, is when we look at what we did in January, being able to do that better in terms of where we have our capacity placed. And that's the part I think I'm really excited about is we now have the real post-pandemic travel patterns, which are very different in terms of cities that people fly to and places they want to go. If you take New York to Florida, which has never been bigger, there's a reason why, right, as people have decided that they can live in Florida and work in New York. And those are the things that we're now incorporating into our analysis as we move forward and things I think we're really excited about in the future.

但另一件事是明年讓整個網絡變得更好，對吧，我們看到了所有與大流行前和人們飛行的地方截然不同的旅行模式。因此，當我們做到這一點時，讓我們真正有信心在明年比今年有所改進的事情之一是，當我們審視我們在 1 月份所做的事情時，能夠根據我們的能力做得更好放置。這就是我認為我真正感到興奮的部分，因為我們現在有了真正的大流行後旅行模式，這在人們飛往的城市和他們想去的地方方面非常不同。如果你把紐約帶到佛羅里達，它從來沒有這麼大過，這是有原因的，因為人們已經決定他們可以住在佛羅里達，在紐約工作。這些是我們在前進的過程中現在正在納入我們的分析的事情，我認為我們在未來真的很興奮。

Appreciate that, Glen. And then very quickly related to the ATL being close to $11 billion and your free cash flow guidance for $2 billion this year, does that guidance incorporate the payment to the pilots? And how do we think about free cash as the year progresses now?

對此表示讚賞，格倫。然後很快與接近 110 億美元的 ATL 和你今年 20 億美元的自由現金流指導相關，該指導是否包括支付給飛行員的費用？隨著時間的推移，我們如何看待自由現金？

Free cash flow, the -- as we mentioned in December and on first quarter, the one-time ratification payment that was made was not a special item. You see it this quarter. It's not in the free cash flow. And certainly, going back to the ATL, the cash performance in total, as it relates to the operating cash and where we are in free cash flow gives us confidence in being greater than $2 billion for the year, first quarter and through the half.

自由現金流，正如我們在 12 月和第一季度提到的那樣，一次性批准付款不是特殊項目。你會在本季度看到它。它不在自由現金流中。當然，回到 ATL，總的現金表現，因為它與運營現金和我們的自由現金流相關，這讓我們有信心在今年、第一季度和上半年超過 20 億美元。

Your next question is coming from Helane Becker from TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

Ed, you talked about something I had a question about actually, and that was productivity improvements, which you mentioned that so many people have a year or more worth of experience. Can you -- is there any way you or Dan can put any numbers around that and just say, it's like X percent of CASM improvement or cost improvement?

埃德，你談到了我實際上有一個問題的事情，那就是生產力的提高，你提到很多人都有一年或更長時間的經驗。你能不能——你或 Dan 有沒有什麼辦法可以圍繞它給出任何數字，然後說，這就像 CASM 改進或成本改進的 X%？

When you -- when -- yes, there's a lot of different benchmarks you'll use and you certainly look at this at every operating group. And things have changed. We used 2019 as a benchmark as a way marker, but I don't know that, that's always your operations changed how the teams execute has changed. But it's an anchoring point that we use and we look at our operating groups, each of those by where they were, what's changed, how are they tracking to those levels.

當你 - 當 - 是的，你會使用很多不同的基準，你肯定會在每個運營組中查看這個。事情發生了變化。我們使用 2019 年作為基準作為方式標記，但我不知道，那總是你的操作發生了變化，團隊的執行方式發生了變化。但這是我們使用的一個錨點，我們會查看我們的運營團隊，每個運營團隊的位置、發生的變化以及他們如何跟踪到這些級別。

And we certainly have by group metrics, and we know where we're at. But when you look at the total, when you bring it back up and you think about what's in our run rate, take out the rebuild component, but just around efficiency. There's 2 to 3 points, 4 points of opportunity in there as it relates to us getting better as we move forward through the back half of the year into next year. And those are all going to move at different paces in regards to it. The one that's going to be, for instance, probably the slowest here will be around regionals and the regional flying that we do. We know we're elevated levels were underutilized by almost 30% as it relates to the aircraft and capability, and that one will [tear over the 24 period] and into '25. And then other ones will have a different pace associated with it.

我們當然有按組衡量的指標，我們知道我們在哪裡。但是，當您查看總數時，當您將其恢復並考慮我們的運行率時，取出重建組件，但只考慮效率。那裡有 2 到 3 點，4 點機會，因為它與我們在今年下半年進入明年時變得更好有關。就此而言，這些都將以不同的速度發展。例如，這裡可能最慢的將是圍繞區域和我們所做的區域飛行。我們知道我們提高的水平未被充分利用近 30%，因為它與飛機和能力有關，而且這將 [在 24 年期間撕裂] 並進入 25 年。然後其他人會有與之相關的不同步伐。

Helane, couple of added points. We mentioned in past calls, the amount of incremental training that we're doing is in the hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Obviously, a lot of that's going to dissipate now that we get into a more normalized pattern. We're going to get the employees not just at the cost of the training, but the instructors are doing the training back into the operation and providing that leadership.

Helane，補充幾點。我們在過去的電話中提到，我們每年進行的增量培訓金額達數億美元。顯然，現在我們進入了一個更加規範化的模式，其中很多都會消失。我們不僅要以培訓成本來吸引員工，而且講師正在將培訓重新投入運營並發揮領導作用。

The other thing is that, as Glen mentioned, the network is continuing to evolve. And what we've seen is the staffing has been a bit lumpy during this recovery from the pandemic and getting your employees and your shifts to the schedule and understanding what the schedule looks like. There's a lot of opportunity in there at the airport level and efficiency across the board. So I think efficiency is certainly a big part of the reason why we expect in the second half of this year to bend the trajectory on nonfuel CASM and start taking it down relative to prior year versus the continued upward push we've been seeing.

另一件事是，正如 Glen 提到的，網絡正在不斷發展。我們所看到的是，在從大流行病中恢復過來的過程中，人員配置有點不穩定，讓你的員工和你的班次符合時間表，並了解時間表是什麼樣的。在機場級別和全面效率方面有很多機會。因此，我認為效率肯定是我們預計今年下半年將改變非燃料 CASM 軌跡並開始將其相對於上一年下降的主要原因，而不是我們一直看到的持續上升趨勢。

That's usually helpful. And then just for my follow-up question, as you know, being in New York, the FAA asked you to cut capacity by 10% this summer. So that adds to your inability to be back to where you really want to be. Does that continue into the fourth quarter? And then -- have you talked to them about getting more experienced controllers in the Region A, B? And B, is this something we need to look forward to every single summer, I mean, don't they have to do their part to in terms of improving their infrastructure?

這通常很有幫助。然後就我的後續問題，正如你所知，在紐約，美國聯邦航空局要求你今年夏天削減 10% 的運力。所以這會增加你無法回到你真正想去的地方的能力。這會持續到第四季度嗎？然後——您是否與他們討論過在 A 區、B 區獲得更多經驗豐富的管制員？ B，這是我們每個夏天都需要期待的事情嗎，我的意思是，他們不需要在改善基礎設施方面儘自己的一份力量嗎？

It's Peter Carter. Thanks for the question. So good to hear from you. So that release is until September 15, so it does not get into the fourth quarter. But what I would say is that it is hopefully going to be only something we would need to do this summer because we are engaged in ongoing discussions with the FAA precisely on the topic of ensuring that they have the appropriate staffing for that New York. And frankly, it's beyond New York, but for our national air system.

是彼得·卡特。謝謝你的問題。很高興收到你的來信。所以該版本將持續到 9 月 15 日，因此不會進入第四季度。但我要說的是，希望這只是我們今年夏天需要做的事情，因為我們正在與美國聯邦航空局就確保他們為紐約配備適當人員的主題進行持續討論。坦率地說，它超出了紐約，但適用於我們的國家航空系統。

And I think the one thing you've probably seen from them in there granting this waiver is that they are acknowledging that they have an issue that they need to solve, which is really an important, I think, acknowledgment because it allows us to work together to try to solve it. Help them solve it together. So we're -- it is the most efficient and safest air traffic control system in the world, and we need to continue to invest in it.

我認為你可能從他們那裡看到的一件事是，他們承認他們有一個他們需要解決的問題，我認為這是一個非常重要的承認，因為它允許我們工作一起嘗試解決它。幫助他們一起解決。所以我們 - 它是世界上最有效和最安全的空中交通管制系統，我們需要繼續投資它。

Now we'll go to our final analyst question.

現在我們將轉到最後一個分析師問題。

Your final analyst is goingt to be Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

您的最終分析師將是 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Just to switch gears a little bit, maybe talking about the loyalty program, it continues to be pretty successful. Revenue is up 27% year-over-year in the quarter. And I know you've laid out 2024 targets. But generally, how are you thinking about growth runway from here, what levers are there to pull? And how do you think about the correlation to the broader economy and the broader macro? And if there's any metrics you watch more carefully with that?

只是稍微改變一下，也許談論忠誠度計劃，它仍然非常成功。本季度收入同比增長 27%。我知道你已經制定了 2024 年的目標。但總的來說，你如何看待從這裡開始的增長跑道，有哪些槓桿可以拉動？您如何看待與更廣泛的經濟和更廣泛的宏觀經濟的相關性？如果有任何指標你會更仔細地觀察它？

I think there are 2 components to that. One is the accounts in force, and that is, of course, related to our ability to bring new customers in, and we have posted record acquisitions in the last year, and we just had another -- in the month of March, it was a record monthly acquisition for -- in the history of the card. So I'd say we see real strength in the brand, and that's really what drives the acquisitions.

我認為這有兩個組成部分。一個是有效賬戶，當然，這與我們吸引新客戶的能力有關，我們在去年創下了創紀錄的收購記錄，而且我們剛剛獲得了另一個——在 3 月份，它是創紀錄的月度收購——在卡的歷史上。所以我想說我們看到了品牌的真正實力，而這正是推動收購的真正原因。

People want to associate with Delta, and they want associated with the SkyMiles program because it does apply great value to those customers. So put that in one side and then put them the actual spend on the accounts in force. And that, I think, is more of a fluctuation in the economy. We see that continuing to be strong as we sit here today. But that's the piece I think that could shift up or down a little bit depending on how the economy rolls out in the second half of the year. But what we're counting on is that being more than offset by our new acquisitions, accounts in force. And really, more and more premium customers. And I think that's an exciting thing that we'll talk about in June. So stay tuned on details on that. We'll going to give you some more details on how we see that evolving.

人們希望與 Delta 建立聯繫，他們希望與 SkyMiles 計劃建立聯繫，因為它確實為這些客戶帶來了巨大的價值。所以把它放在一邊，然後把它們放在有效賬戶上的實際支出。而且，我認為，更多的是經濟波動。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們看到它繼續保持強勁。但我認為這部分可能會根據今年下半年經濟的發展情況而略有上升或下降。但我們指望的是，我們的新收購、有效賬戶所抵消的不僅僅是這些。實際上，越來越多的優質客戶。我認為這是我們將在 6 月討論的令人興奮的事情。所以請繼續關注這方面的細節。我們將為您提供更多關於我們如何看待這種演變的細節。

I will wrap up the analyst portion of the call.

我將結束電話的分析師部分。

I'll now turn it over to Trebor Banstetter from our Corporate Communications department to start the media questions.

我現在將其轉交給我們企業傳播部的 Trebor Banstetter 開始媒體提問。

Thank you, Julie. And just to remind everyone, we've got time for one question and one follow-up each, and we'll get to as many as we can in the time remaining. Matthew, if you could please reiterate for the members of the media, the instructions for joining the question queue.

謝謝你，朱莉。提醒大家，我們有時間分別回答一個問題和一個後續問題，我們會在剩餘時間內盡可能多地回答。馬修，能否請你向媒體成員重申一下加入問題隊列的說明。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is coming from Alison Sider from Wall Street Journal.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的艾莉森·賽德。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the recent [near miss] or safety incidents that we've been seeing. Has Delta -- have you looked at your own data? Have you noticed any anything concerning or any kind of trends or anything that would suggest if there's sort of a cause behind some of these expenses?

我想知道你是否可以談談我們最近看到的 [險些事故] 或安全事故。 Delta——你看過你自己的數據了嗎？您是否注意到任何有關或任何趨勢或任何暗示這些費用背後是否有原因的事情？

Ali, it's Ed. We talked about this several weeks ago around the time of the summit that the FAA convened. And we thought it was a very positive step to bring all the stakeholders together to talk about what we're seeing and what we can do to continue to improve upon the very best safety aviation system in the world. Yes, there's no question that we've had some additional incidents that you would see that are a bit out of the norm in terms of timing.

阿里，是埃德。幾週前，在美國聯邦航空局召開的峰會期間，我們談到了這個問題。我們認為這是非常積極的一步，將所有利益相關者聚集在一起討論我們所看到的以及我們可以做些什麼來繼續改進世界上最好的安全航空系統。是的，毫無疑問，我們還發生了一些其他事件，您會發現這些事件在時間安排方面有點不合常理。

Fortunately, the safety systems caught those incidents, but we've got to be vigilant at all times and continue to find ways to get better in that environment. So nothing that gives us pause. It is, by far, the safest form of travel period -- of any form of travel. But we want to make certain the stakeholders are all focused as this industry works through. the infrastructure rebuild that FAA is seeing as well as the airlines are seeing.

幸運的是，安全系統發現了這些事故，但我們必須時刻保持警惕，並繼續尋找改善這種環境的方法。所以沒有什麼讓我們停下來。到目前為止，這是最安全的旅行方式——任何形式的旅行。但我們希望確保利益相關者在這個行業的運作過程中全神貫注。美國聯邦航空局和航空公司正在看到的基礎設施重建。

And then you mentioned sort of like the relative newness or experience of the workforce as a factor in the operational issues, do you think that, that has played a role in kind of that uptick in safety incidents as well?

然後你提到了勞動力的相對新鮮度或經驗作為運營問題的一個因素，你認為這對安全事件的上升也起到了一定的作用嗎？

There's no evidence that, that is necessarily the case. Listen, we have the world's foremost safety management systems and risk mitigation focus in the aviation community. And we knew that we have younger people. And so we get out ahead of that. We don't wait for something to happen. We are on the front end of that with training and added procedures, added buffers, added focus in the operations. So no, I would not lay it necessarily at the hands of experience.

沒有證據表明，情況必然如此。聽著，我們在航空界擁有世界上最重要的安全管理系統和風險緩解重點。我們知道我們有年輕人。所以我們提前離開。我們不會等待某事發生。我們在培訓和增加程序、增加緩衝區、增加操作重點方面處於領先地位。所以不，我不會把它交給經驗。

Your next question is coming from Mary Schlangenstein from Bloomberg News.

你的下一個問題來自彭博新聞社的 Mary Schlangenstein。

I wanted to get one quick clarification, and then I have a quick question. When you were talking about corporate recovery, and you were saying you've recovered 85% of revenue, 75% of traffic in the second quarter. Is that like total overall domestic and international corporate? Or was that a segment of that?

我想得到一個快速的澄清，然後我有一個快速的問題。當你談論企業復甦時，你說第二季度你已經恢復了 85% 的收入和 75% 的流量。這就像國內和國際公司的總和嗎？或者那是其中的一部分？

That's system...

那是系統...

Okay. Okay. And then the second question I had was on high-end leisure travelers continuing to buy up. Are you just seeing these folks buy up and do what you would normally see business or first-class seats? Or are they buying up only to the top premium economy level? And if it's the former, is that something that you expect to continue long term where these passengers are buying up into your ultimate highest classes?

好的。好的。然後我的第二個問題是關於高端休閒旅行者繼續購買的問題。您是否只是看到這些人購買並使用您通常會看到的商務艙或頭等艙座位？或者他們只購買頂級豪華經濟艙？如果是前者，您是否希望這種情況長期持續下去，讓這些乘客購買您的最高艙位？

They're buying all the way up to domestic first and Delta One on the long-haul international. So -- and this is a phenomenon that we've seen in making it more accessible. I think that's really been part of our long-term journey that we've been talking about for many years. It is something we wanted to achieve is to make those products more accessible to people. And I think we've seen success through the pandemic and coming out of the pandemic, once we see high stickiness to those products. So once you start flying in those cabins, you tend not to go back.

他們一直在購買國內航班和達美一號的長途國際航班。所以 - 這是我們在使其更易於訪問時看到的一種現象。我認為這確實是我們多年來一直在談論的長期旅程的一部分。我們想要實現的目標是讓人們更容易獲得這些產品。而且我認為，一旦我們看到對這些產品的高度粘性，我們就已經看到了通過大流行和從大流行中走出來的成功。因此，一旦您開始在這些機艙中飛行，您往往就不會再回去了。

And you expect them to be durable to maintain well beyond the pandemic or post-pandemic years?

你希望它們能夠持久地維持在大流行或大流行後的歲月之後嗎？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question is coming from David Slotnick from TPG.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自 TPG 的 David Slotnick。

Thank you for the question. You touched on this a little bit in the analyst portion, but I wondered if you could talk a bit about staffing levels, both on the flight deck elsewhere throughout the operation and really with your third-party vendors, have you had any disruption? And do you expect any disruption because of short staffing, say, with caterers or refuelers or anything like that?

感謝你的提問。你在分析師部分稍微談到了這一點，但我想知道你是否可以談談人員配備水平，無論是在整個操作過程中駕駛艙的其他地方，還是與你的第三方供應商，你有沒有受到任何干擾？你是否預計會因為人員短缺而造成任何中斷，比如，餐飲服務商或加油商或類似的人手？

We said on the call that we're getting into our normal staffing ranges and the amount of churn and turnover we're seeing both on the third-party support staff as well as the added staffing we've hired is starting to get in a pretty good place. So no, I don't -- again, there's always a one-off pocket where you have some unique pressure. But on balance, no, that's not a problem.

我們在電話中表示，我們正在進入正常的人員配置範圍，我們在第三方支持人員以及我們僱用的新增人員中看到的流失和人員流動量開始進入不錯的地方。所以不，我不——再一次，總是有一個一次性的口袋，你有一些獨特的壓力。但總的來說，不，這不是問題。

Okay. And then you say that you're 75% booked for international travel this summer. Just with change -- wave change fees and everything, what percent of that would you normally expect to see change their flights or maybe canceling, postponed for a later point?

好的。然後你說你今年夏天有 75% 的國際旅行預訂。只是改變 - 波浪改變費用和一切，你通常希望看到改變他們的航班或可能取消的百分比是多少，推遲到以後？

That will be in the high single digits.

那將是高個位數。

Thank you, David, and that covers our media questions for today. So we can go ahead and wrap the call. We want to thank everyone for their time and participation.

謝謝你，大衛，這涵蓋了我們今天的媒體問題。所以我們可以繼續並結束通話。我們要感謝大家的時間和參與。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference. Thank you, everyone, for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。謝謝大家今天的參與。