達美航空 (DAL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Delta Air Lines December Quarter and Full Year 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Matthew, and I will be your coordinator. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位早上好，歡迎參加達美航空 12 月季度和 2022 年全年財務業績電話會議。我的名字是馬修，我將是你的協調員。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Julie Stewart, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁朱莉斯圖爾特。請繼續。

Thank you, Matthew, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for our December quarter and full-year 2022 earnings call.

謝謝馬修，大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的 12 月季度和 2022 年全年財報電話會議。

Joining us from Atlanta today, our CEO, Ed Bastian; our President, Glen Hauenstein; our CFO, Dan Janki. Ed will open the call with an overview of Delta's performance and strategy, Glen will provide an update on the revenue environment, and Dan will discuss costs and our balance sheet.

我們的首席執行官 Ed Bastian 今天從亞特蘭大加入我們；我們的總裁 Glen Hauenstein；我們的首席財務官 Dan Janki。 Ed 將首先概述 Delta 的業績和戰略，Glen 將提供最新的收入環境，Dan 將討論成本和我們的資產負債表。

After the prepared remarks, we'll take analyst questions. (Operator Instructions) Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that may cause such differences are described in Delta's SEC filings.

在準備好的評論之後，我們將回答分析師的問題。 （操作員說明）今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，代表我們對未來事件的信念或期望。所有前瞻性陳述均涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。 Delta 向 SEC 提交的文件中描述了可能導致此類差異的一些因素。

We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and all results exclude special items unless otherwise noted. You can find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures on the Investor Relations page at ir.delta.com.

我們還將討論非 GAAP 財務指標，除非另有說明，否則所有結果均不包括特殊項目。您可以在 ir.delta.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到我們的非 GAAP 措施的對賬。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給埃德。

Thank you, Julie. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today.

謝謝你，朱莉。大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們。

Earlier, Delta reported our full-year results, including our December quarter earnings per share of $1.48 on record revenue that was 8% above 2019 levels. We generated a 12% operating margin, our third consecutive quarter of double-digit operating margins, pointing to the strength of our recovery. I want to sincerely thank the 90,000-strong Delta team for their outstanding work in delivering these results and serving our customers during a very busy holiday travel season.

早些時候，達美航空報告了我們的全年業績，包括我們 12 月季度的每股收益 1.48 美元，收入創歷史新高，比 2019 年水平高出 8%。我們產生了 12% 的營業利潤率，這是我們連續第三個季度保持兩位數的營業利潤率，表明我們的複蘇勢頭強勁。我要衷心感謝 90,000 名強大的達美團隊，感謝他們在非常繁忙的假日旅遊旺季期間出色地完成了這些成果並為我們的客戶提供服務。

In my opinion, 2022 was the most difficult operational year in our history and was capped off by severe winter storms over the holidays. I am grateful to our employees for their great work to recover the operation, while keeping our customers and each other safe. They are the reason our brand and customer loyalty is at the top of the industry.

在我看來，2022 年是我們歷史上運營最困難的一年，並且在假期期間被嚴重的冬季風暴封頂。我感謝我們的員工為恢復運營所做的出色工作，同時確保我們的客戶和彼此的安全。他們是我們的品牌和客戶忠誠度處於行業領先地位的原因。

Our December quarter earnings per share and margins exceeded guidance, marking a strong close to a year where we made significant progress regarding restoration of our financial foundation. For the full year, we reported earnings of $3.20 per share on $46 billion of revenue. We delivered pretax income of $2.7 billion, an improvement of more than $6 billion over 2021.

我們 12 月季度的每股收益和利潤率超過了指導值，標誌著我們在恢復財務基礎方面取得重大進展的一年結束了。全年，我們報告的每股收益為 3.20 美元，收入為 460 億美元。我們實現了 27 億美元的稅前收入，比 2021 年增加了超過 60 億美元。

Delta's profitability led the industry. And in our nearly 100-year history, 2022 was our seventh-highest result, even with a $1 billion loss in the first quarter. We are pleased to report positive free cash flow for the year, which funded $6 billion of capital invested back into the business. And we repaid close to $5 billion in gross debt.

台達的盈利能力領跑行業。在我們近 100 年的歷史中，2022 年是我們的第七高業績，即使第一季度虧損 10 億美元。我們很高興地報告本年度正的自由現金流，這為投資回業務的 60 億美元資本提供了資金。我們償還了近 50 億美元的總債務。

Sharing our success is a long-standing pillar of Delta's culture, and I'm proud to announce that we'll be paying our employees $550 million in well-earned profit-sharing coming Valentine's Day. 2022 came in ahead of our plan on revenue, earnings and cash flow, demonstrating strong execution in the first year of the 3-year plan we laid out at the 2021 Capital Markets Day. I'm incredibly proud of the team for rebuilding the world's best-performing airline. And importantly, we're not just building back, we're continuing to improve and extend our competitive advantages.

分享我們的成功是達美文化的長期支柱，我很自豪地宣布，我們將在情人節到來之際向員工支付 5.5 億美元的應得利潤分享。 2022 年比我們的收入、收益和現金流計劃提前，表明我們在 2021 年資本市場日制定的 3 年計劃的第一年執行得很好。我為重建世界上表現最好的航空公司的團隊感到無比自豪。重要的是，我們不僅在重建，還在繼續改善和擴大我們的競爭優勢。

Delta's brand continued to strengthen in 2022, with record performance from our loyalty and co-brand card programs and customer satisfaction scores consistently perform above pre-pandemic levels. Through the year, we've hired and trained 25,000 new employees, now representing over 1/4 of the total company. Our team showed their operating talent and resilience as we retained our #1 position in completion factor and on-time arrivals amongst our peer set, despite having so many new team members.

Delta 的品牌在 2022 年繼續增強，我們的忠誠度和聯名卡計劃的創紀錄表現以及客戶滿意度得分始終高於大流行前水平。全年，我們僱用和培訓了 25,000 名新員工，現在占公司總數的 1/4 以上。我們的團隊展示了他們的運營才能和應變能力，儘管我們有這麼多新團隊成員，但我們在同行中的完成率和準時到達方面保持了第一的位置。

The Delta brand is centered on our safe, reliable and exceptional service. And our operational excellence was recognized by Cirium last week, which named us, yet again, the most on-time airline in North America. We fortified our international partnerships in 2022, positioning us for profitable international growth in the years ahead. As detailed last month, expanding our international margins to domestic levels is an important opportunity for Delta in the years to come.

Delta 品牌以我們安全、可靠和卓越的服務為中心。上週，我們的卓越運營得到了 Cirium 的認可，並再次將我們評為北美準點率最高的航空公司。我們在 2022 年加強了國際合作夥伴關係，為未來幾年的國際盈利增長奠定了基礎。正如上個月詳述的那樣，將我們的國際利潤率擴大到國內水平是達美未來幾年的重要機遇。

We've invested in the customer experience at every stage of the travel journey, from the continued refresh of our fleet with next-generation far more fuel-efficient aircraft to generational airport rebuilds and technology investments that are providing our employees better tools and our customers a more seamless experience. And we continue to attract and partner with leading brands to grow our SkyMiles ecosystem and further enable customers to use their SkyMiles during travel and beyond.

我們在旅行旅程的每個階段都投資於客戶體驗，從使用燃油效率更高的下一代飛機持續更新我們的機隊，到為我們的員工和客戶提供更好的工具的新一代機場重建和技術投資更無縫的體驗。我們繼續吸引領先品牌並與之合作，以發展我們的“飛凡里程常客計劃”生態系統，並進一步使客戶能夠在旅行期間及其他時間使用他們的“飛凡里程常客計劃”。

Heading into 2023, our momentum continues. At the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas just last week, we unveiled the next phase in our vision to connect the Sky. Starting February 1, Delta will be the first major U.S. airline to provide fast, free, unlimited WiFi to all through its free SkyMiles account. This will be available on nearly 80% of our U.S. system to start and growing every week. By the end of next year, we expect to deliver this service seamlessly throughout the rest of our international and regional fleets.

進入 2023 年，我們的勢頭將繼續。上週在拉斯維加斯舉行的消費電子展上，我們公佈了連接天空願景的下一階段。從 2 月 1 日開始，達美航空將成為美國第一家通過其免費“飛凡里程常客計劃”帳戶向所有人提供快速、免費、無限制 WiFi 的主要航空公司。這將在我們近 80% 的美國系統上可用，並且每週都在增加。到明年年底，我們希望在我們其餘的國際和地區機隊中無縫地提供這項服務。

And we debuted Delta Sync, which will create personalized experiences and engagement opportunities on the free WiFi portal. We're partnering with great brands like T-Mobile and Paramount+ as well as building on our long-standing relationship with American Express to bring to life our vision of a more connected and personalized travel experience. As a trusted consumer brand, Delta continues to differentiate the premium flying experience, building loyalty and supporting our ambition to transcend the industry.

我們還推出了 Delta Sync，它將在免費 WiFi 門戶上創造個性化體驗和參與機會。我們正在與 T-Mobile 和 Paramount+ 等知名品牌合作，並鞏固與美國運通的長期合作關係，以實現我們對更加互聯和個性化的旅行體驗的願景。作為值得信賴的消費者品牌，達美航空繼續打造與眾不同的優質飛行體驗，建立忠誠度並支持我們超越行業的雄心。

Moving to our outlook. At our investor event last month, we provided full-year 2023 guidance for revenue growth of 15% to 20% year-over-year, earnings of $5 to $6 per share and free cash flow of over $2 billion. We're affirming that guidance today and introducing our March quarter outlook, which Glen and Dan will provide in detail.

轉向我們的前景。在上個月的投資者活動中，我們提供了 2023 年全年收入同比增長 15% 至 20%、每股收益 5 至 6 美元以及自由現金流超過 20 億美元的指導意見。我們今天確認該指導並介紹我們的 3 月季度展望，Glen 和 Dan 將詳細提供。

For the March quarter, we expect to deliver a 4% to 6% operating margin and improve our pretax income by more than $1 billion compared to the same period last year. Importantly, we are embedding the assumed impact of all labor cost increases throughout our guidance metrics. We are pleased to have reached an agreement in principle with our pilots, but out of respect for the process, we will not be discussing the details of the agreement on today's call.

對於 3 月季度，我們預計營業利潤率將達到 4% 至 6%，與去年同期相比，我們的稅前收入將增加 10 億美元以上。重要的是，我們在整個指導指標中嵌入了所有勞動力成本增加的假設影響。我們很高興與我們的飛行員原則上達成協議，但出於對這一過程的尊重，我們不會在今天的電話會議上討論協議的細節。

As I outlined last month, I've never seen a more constructive backdrop for the industry. Demand remains strong as passengers return to the skies and industry returns to the long-term trend to GDP, all while supply constraints continue. I believe our industry will see tens of billions of dollars of incremental demand in the next few years coming out of the pandemic.

正如我上個月概述的那樣，我從未見過比這個行業更具建設性的背景。隨著乘客重返天空，行業回歸 GDP 的長期趨勢，需求依然強勁，而供應限制仍在繼續。我相信，在接下來的幾年裡，我們的行業將看到數百億美元的增量需求從大流行中脫穎而出。

As the industry leader with a proven strategy and strong execution track record, Delta is well-positioned to build on our momentum in the new year. We're confident in our ability to deliver significant improvement in earnings and free cash flow in 2023, consistent with the plan we laid out last month, and we are on track to deliver our 2024 targets of more than $7 of earnings per share and $4 billion of free cash flow. As always, we remain mindful of the macroeconomic trends and have demonstrated that we have the tools to effectively manage a changing economic climate.

作為擁有行之有效的戰略和強大執行記錄的行業領導者，達美航空已做好充分準備，在新的一年裡繼續發展我們的勢頭。我們有信心在 2023 年實現收益和自由現金流的顯著改善，這與我們上個月制定的計劃一致，我們有望實現 2024 年每股收益超過 7 美元和 4 美元的目標億的自由現金流。一如既往，我們始終關注宏觀經濟趨勢，並證明我們擁有有效管理不斷變化的經濟氣候的工具。

In closing, Delta delivered in 2022, outperforming our plan and leading the industry operationally and financially. We are uniquely positioned to grow earnings and cash flow in 2023, 2024 and beyond. The power of our premium brand continues to grow. And with the very best people in the industry, I couldn't be more excited about what's ahead for Delta and our customers.

最後，達美航空於 2022 年交付，超出了我們的計劃，並在運營和財務方面處於行業領先地位。我們具有獨特的優勢，可以在 2023 年、2024 年及以後實現收益和現金流的增長。我們優質品牌的影響力不斷增強。有了業內最優秀的人才，我對達美和我們的客戶的未來感到無比興奮。

Thank you again. With that, I'll turn it over to Glen.

再次感謝你。有了這個，我會把它交給格倫。

Thank you, Ed, and good morning, everyone. I couldn't be prouder of what the Delta people accomplished throughout 2022, and I want to congratulate our teams on their much deserved profit-sharing payout they'll be receiving next month.

謝謝你，艾德，大家早上好。我為 Delta 員工在整個 2022 年所取得的成就感到無比自豪，我要祝賀我們的團隊下個月將獲得當之無愧的利潤分享支出。

For the full year, we generated revenue of $46 billion, a $19 billion improvement year-over-year. We delivered record December quarter and full-year unit revenues, sustaining our revenue premium to the industry of more than 110%. For the 12th consecutive year, Delta was named the #1 corporate airline in Business Travel News survey, as we continue to invest in our network and product offerings.

全年，我們創造了 460 億美元的收入，同比增長 190 億美元。我們實現了創紀錄的 12 月季度和全年單位收入，使我們對行業的收入溢價保持在 110% 以上。達美連續第 12 年在《商務旅行新聞》調查中被評為企業航空公司第一名，因為我們繼續投資於我們的網絡和產品。

And through the year, we made significant progress on our long-term commercial strategy to deepen our network advantages, expand premium revenues, grow our loyalty ecosystem and further diversify our revenues.

在這一年裡，我們在深化我們的網絡優勢、擴大保費收入、發展我們的忠誠度生態系統並進一步實現收入多元化的長期商業戰略方面取得了重大進展。

Starting with our network strategy, we focused on solidifying our positions in coastal gateways, while protecting our core hub shares. We secured the leading positions in both Boston and Los Angeles, while increasing local market share in our core hubs.

我們從網絡戰略著手，著力鞏固沿海門戶地位，同時保住核心樞紐份額。我們確保了在波士頓和洛杉磯的領先地位，同時增加了我們核心樞紐的本地市場份額。

Premium let all year with paid load factors higher than 2019 and yield growth outpacing Main Cabin, while basic economy made up less than 5% of revenue, half of the 2019 levels. We expanded our Delta Premium Select rollout during the year. Customer response has been positive and the cabin performed better than our initial expectations. Our rollout continues in 2023, and we will have this product on 84% of our international wide-body fleet by this summer.

全年出租高級艙，有償載客率高於 2019 年，收益率增長超過經濟艙，而基本經濟艙佔收入的比例不到 5%，是 2019 年水平的一半。我們在這一年擴大了 Delta Premium Select 的推廣範圍。客戶反應積極，機艙表現優於我們最初的預期。我們將在 2023 年繼續推出該產品，到今年夏天，我們將在 84% 的國際寬體機隊中安裝該產品。

Our loyalty program continued to exceed our expectations with record SkyMiles acquisitions in 2022, 42% higher than 2019. As Ed noted, we're partnering with leading companies to expand our loyalty ecosystem, increasing the value of our program for customers and deepening customer engagement with Delta.

我們的忠誠度計劃繼續超出我們的預期，在 2022 年獲得了創紀錄的“飛凡里程常客計劃”，比 2019 年高出 42%。正如 Ed 所指出的，我們正在與領先的公司合作，以擴大我們的忠誠度生態系統，增加我們計劃對客戶的價值並加深客戶參與度與三角洲。

With an expanding ecosystem and free, fast WiFi, we expect continued growth in our loyalty base. Our partnership with American Express delivered record results, with full-year remuneration of $5.5 billion, ahead of our initial target and positioning us to deliver over $6.5 billion in 2023 and over $7 billion in 2024. Cargo revenue was a record in 2022, and we expect to grow cargo revenues in '23 as increased capacity offsets the cargo yield environment.

隨著不斷擴大的生態系統和免費、快速的 WiFi，我們預計我們的忠誠度基礎將持續增長。我們與美國運通的合作夥伴關係取得了創紀錄的成果，全年薪酬達到 55 億美元，超過了我們最初的目標，並使我們能夠在 2023 年交付超過 65 億美元，在 2024 年交付超過 70 億美元。2022 年貨運收入創歷史新高，我們隨著運力的增加抵消了貨運收益環境，預計 23 年貨運收入將增長。

With strong execution across our business lines, a record 55% of revenue was generated by premium products and diverse revenue streams. We're confident in our path to exceed 60% by 2024. While not without challenges, 2022 was a strong year for Delta, and we exited the year with momentum.

憑藉我們各業務線的強大執行力，創紀錄的 55% 的收入來自優質產品和多樣化的收入來源。我們對到 2024 年超過 60% 的目標充滿信心。雖然並非沒有挑戰，但 2022 年對達美航空來說是強勁的一年，我們以勢頭結束了這一年。

During the December quarter, we generated revenue of $12.3 billion, 8% higher than 2019, on 9% less capacity. We saw revenue recapture at the end of December that offset the impact of weather disruptions in our system around Christmas. Fourth quarter unit revenues were 19% higher than 2019, with strength driven by consumer demand throughout the quarter. Corporate travel demand was steady through the quarter, with corporate domestic sales 80% recovered to 2019 levels. We expect March quarter revenue to be up 14% to 17% higher versus 2019. On capacity approaching full restoration, we expect March quarter unit revenues will be up 15% to 17% compared to 2019, including a 2-point impact from higher stage.

在 12 月季度，我們的收入為 123 億美元，比 2019 年增長 8%，但產能減少 9%。我們在 12 月底看到收入收回，抵消了聖誕節前後天氣中斷對我們系統的影響。第四季度單位收入比 2019 年高出 19%，這得益於整個季度消費者需求的推動。本季度商務旅行需求穩定，企業國內銷售額恢復到 2019 年水平的 80%。我們預計 3 月季度收入將比 2019 年增長 14% 至 17%。在產能接近完全恢復時，我們預計 3 月季度單位收入將比 2019 年增長 15% 至 17%，包括較高階段的 2 點影響.

Based on how we're deploying our network, our stage length is expected to be up 5 points compared to 2019, resulting in a higher restoration of ASMs seats. This is a temporary dynamic that is unique to Delta among major carriers. Stage will begin to normalize relative to 2019 and relative to the industry as we rebuild our core hubs later this year.

根據我們部署網絡的方式，我們的階段長度預計將比 2019 年增加 5 個百分點，從而提高 ASM 席位的恢復率。這是達美航空在主要航空公司中獨有的暫時動態。隨著我們在今年晚些時候重建我們的核心樞紐，階段將相對於 2019 年和相對於行業開始正常化。

For 2023, we expect to grow revenue 15% to 20% year-over-year as we fully restore our network and further diversify our revenue streams. Consumer demand remains healthy, with advanced bookings significantly ahead on both yield and load factor for each month of the March quarter compared to 2019. And in our recent corporate survey, results were positive with 96% of respondents expecting to travel as much or more in 1Q than 4Q, led by financial services.

到 2023 年，隨著我們全面恢復網絡並進一步實現收入來源多元化，我們預計收入將同比增長 15% 至 20%。消費者需求保持健康，與 2019 年相比，3 月季度每個月的提前預訂在收益和載客率方面均顯著領先。在我們最近的企業調查中，結果是積極的，96% 的受訪者預計在1Q 優於 4Q，金融服務領漲。

In the new year, bookings reflect the survey optimism and are accelerating. International revenue continues to be led by the transatlantic. We are seeing robust demand across our expanded footprint in Europe and expect the spring and summer to set new record revenues. Latin America is performing very well, led by Mexico, the Caribbean and Central America, with a recovery in Deep South America now accelerating. And we are pleased with the early results from the launch of the LATAM JV, and I'm excited about the opportunities for us in 2023 and beyond.

在新的一年裡，預訂反映了調查的樂觀情緒並且正在加速。跨大西洋地區繼續引領國際收入。我們在歐洲擴大的業務範圍內看到了強勁的需求，預計春季和夏季的收入將創下新紀錄。在墨西哥、加勒比海和中美洲的帶領下，拉丁美洲表現非常好，南美洲腹地的複蘇正在加速。我們對 LATAM JV 啟動的早期結果感到滿意，我對我們在 2023 年及以後的機會感到興奮。

In the Pacific, we expected record first quarter profits in both Australia and Korea as our multiyear international transformation delivers on anticipated results. Japan is also building momentum, and we expect a very strong summer there. And lastly, with China, indicating its reopening, we expect to rebuild capacity in line with demand starting later this year.

在太平洋地區，隨著我們多年的國際轉型取得預期成果，我們預計澳大利亞和韓國的第一季度利潤將創紀錄。日本也在增強勢頭，我們預計那裡的夏季會非常強勁。最後，隨著中國重新開放，我們預計從今年晚些時候開始根據需求重建產能。

In closing, we delivered on our key commercial priorities in 2022, supporting a significant improvement in our revenue, while strengthening our competitive advantages. We have started the new year with great momentum and are well-positioned to extend our leadership position in the years ahead.

最後，我們在 2022 年實現了關鍵的商業優先事項，支持我們的收入顯著提高，同時增強了我們的競爭優勢。我們以強勁的勢頭開始了新的一年，並做好了在未來幾年擴大我們的領導地位的有利條件。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Dan to talk about the financials.

有了這個，我會把它交給丹來談談財務問題。

Thank you, Glen. In 2022, we made significant progress restoring our financial foundation. We delivered earnings of $3.20 per share, with pretax income of $2.7 billion, ahead of our plan. Operating margins of 7.8% was driven by 3 quarters of double-digit margins. We improved profitability and a strong advanced bookings. We generated $6.2 billion of operating cash flow, enabling continued investment in our people, our fleet, our partners and technology.

謝謝你，格倫。 2022 年，我們在恢復財務基礎方面取得了重大進展。我們實現了每股 3.20 美元的收益，稅前收入為 27 億美元，超出了我們的計劃。 7.8% 的營業利潤率是由 3 個季度的兩位數利潤率推動的。我們提高了盈利能力和強勁的提前預訂。我們產生了 62 億美元的運營現金流，使我們能夠繼續投資於我們的員工、車隊、合作夥伴和技術。

After gross CapEx of $6 billion, we generated $244 million of free cash flow. We ended the year with liquidity of $9.4 billion and adjusted net debt of $22.3 billion. Our adjusted net debt to EBITDAR was 5x, and our after-tax return on invested capital was 8.4%.

在 60 億美元的資本支出總額之後，我們產生了 2.44 億美元的自由現金流。年底，我們的流動資金為 94 億美元，調整後的淨債務為 223 億美元。我們調整後的淨債務為 EBITDAR 的 5 倍，我們的投資資本稅後回報率為 8.4%。

We finished the year strong, reporting a $1.4 billion operating profit on a margin of 11.6% for the December quarter. Our nonfuel costs were 13.4% higher than 2019, in line with guidance, excluding a 1-point impact from the severe winter weather in late December.

我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年，報告 12 月季度的營業利潤為 14 億美元，利潤率為 11.6%。我們的非燃料成本比 2019 年高 13.4%，符合指引，不包括 12 月下旬嚴冬天氣的 1 點影響。

Now moving to guidance. As Ed mentioned, we are including all expected labor rate increases in our guidance metrics, including nonfuel CASM. As it relates to our pilots, if they vote to ratify the proposed agreement by March 1, pay rates would be retroactive to January 1. This results in a 3-point impact on our nonfuel unit costs for the year and in each of the quarters.

現在轉向指導。正如 Ed 所提到的，我們在我們的指導指標中包括了所有預期的勞動率增長，包括非燃料 CASM。就我們的飛行員而言，如果他們在 3 月 1 日之前投票批准擬議的協議，工資率將追溯至 1 月 1 日。這將對我們當年和每個季度的非燃料單位成本產生 3 點影響.

Including this in the full year guidance we gave last month, brings our 2023 non-fuel unit decline to 2% to 4% on a year-over-year basis. Delivering a competitive cost structure is a key financial priority. Delta has led the industry an investment in our people and our customers, and this is embedded in our outlook, as is a full reset of regional costs and inflation.

將此包括在我們上個月給出的全年指導中，使我們 2023 年的非燃料單位同比下降 2% 至 4%。提供具有競爭力的成本結構是一項關鍵的財務優先事項。達美航空引領行業對我們的員工和客戶進行投資，這已融入我們的前景，以及對區域成本和通貨膨脹的全面重置。

As we move through the year, scale and efficiency will drive a decline in 2023 nonfuel CASM versus 2022. While approaching 2019 capacity provides scale benefits, we are still bearing the cost to fully restore our network to the peak summer levels, with a continued emphasis on operational reliability during this ramp-up. We expect to complete our rebuild by the second half, with the majority of our flex fleet reactivated and training levels for our pilots reverting to historical levels. This will allow a significant shift of resources from training to production, giving us the confidence in our ability to deliver a fully restored network during the peak summer period, while enabling our operating teams to drive efficiency in the back half of the year.

隨著我們這一年的推進，規模和效率將推動 2023 年非燃料 CASM 與 2022 年相比下降。雖然接近 2019 年的容量提供了規模效益，但我們仍然承擔將我們的網絡完全恢復到夏季高峰水平的成本，並繼續強調提升期間的運行可靠性。我們預計將在下半年完成重建，我們的大部分靈活機隊將重新啟用，飛行員的培訓水平將恢復到歷史水平。這將使資源從培訓顯著轉移到生產，使我們有信心在夏季高峰期交付完全恢復的網絡，同時使我們的運營團隊能夠在今年下半年提高效率。

One unique item within the year is the pacing of our core maintenance as we prepare to step up the network for summer flying with the first half year-over-year higher than -- and then lower in the second half of the year. While these dynamics impacting early part of the year, we expect 1Q nonfuel unit cost to increase 3% to 4% on a year-over-year basis.

一年中的一個獨特項目是我們核心維護的節奏，因為我們準備加強夏季飛行網絡，上半年同比高於 - 然後在下半年降低。儘管這些動態影響了今年年初，但我們預計第一季度非燃料單位成本將同比增長 3% 至 4%。

We expect the year-over-year unit cost to progressively improve through 2023 as we complete our rebuild and elevated maintenance activity, while driving efficiency across our operating groups. This cadence is consistent with our full year outlook for nonfuel unit cost to decline 2% to 4% year-over-year.

我們預計到 2023 年，隨著我們完成重建和提升維護活動，單位成本同比將逐步改善，同時提高我們運營團隊的效率。這一節奏與我們對非燃料單位成本同比下降 2% 至 4% 的全年展望一致。

With our outlook for revenue, we expect the March quarter operating margins to be 4% to 6% and earnings of $0.15 to $0.40 per share. For the full year, we are regulating our outlook for earnings of $5 to $6 per share and operating margins of 10% to 12%, delivering a 2- to 4-point expansion of margins, including over 1-point impact from higher profit sharing. We expect the full year free cash flow to be more than $2 billion, with gross CapEx of $5.5 billion.

根據我們對收入的展望，我們預計 3 月季度的營業利潤率為 4% 至 6%，每股收益為 0.15 美元至 0.40 美元。對於全年，我們調整了每股收益 5 至 6 美元和 10% 至 12% 營業利潤率的預期，實現了 2 至 4 個百分點的利潤率增長，包括更高利潤分享帶來的超過 1 個百分點的影響.我們預計全年自由現金流將超過 20 億美元，總資本支出為 55 億美元。

In 2023, nonoperating expense is expected to be $470 million higher year-over-year. This results from noncash pension expense increasing over $550 million year-over-year due to broad market declines, more than offsetting the reduction in interest expense from repaying debt. We plan to pay cash for our $2.4 billion in debt maturities, while opportunistically reducing debt with excess liquidity. So we'll bring our leverage to 3 to 3.5x target for 2023 and remaining on track for 2024 adjusted debt-to-EBITDAR to be 2x to 3x. Returning to investment-grade metrics by 2024, while continuing to reinvest in the business remains our focus for capital allocation.

到 2023 年，營業外支出預計將同比增加 4.7 億美元。這是由於廣泛的市場下跌導致非現金養老金支出同比增加超過 5.5 億美元，足以抵消償還債務利息支出的減少。我們計劃為 24 億美元的債務到期支付現金，同時藉機減少流動性過剩的債務。因此，我們將在 2023 年將我們的槓桿率提高到 3 到 3.5 倍的目標，並繼續保持 2024 年調整後的債務對 EBITDAR 為 2 到 3 倍的目標。到 2024 年恢復投資級指標，同時繼續對業務進行再投資仍然是我們資本配置的重點。

In closing, I want to thank -- add my thanks to the Delta team and people for their hard work this year. We outperformed the first year of our 3-year plan, and we entered 2023 on track to generate a significant improvement in both earnings and cash flow. We remain confident in delivering on our 2024 target of $7 of earnings per share and generating over $4 billion of free cash flow.

最後，我要感謝——感謝 Delta 團隊和員工今年的辛勤工作。我們的表現超過了我們 3 年計劃的第一年，並且我們步入了 2023 年的正軌，在收益和現金流方面都取得了顯著改善。我們仍然有信心實現 2024 年每股收益 7 美元的目標，並產生超過 40 億美元的自由現金流。

With that, I'll turn it over back to Julie for our Q&A.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給 Julie 進行問答。

Thanks, Dan. Matthew, can you please remind the analysts how to queue up for questions.

謝謝，丹。 Matthew，能否請您提醒分析師如何排隊提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is coming from Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自高盛的 Catherine O'Brien。

So maybe I'll start with a question on the capacity bottlenecks that you mentioned in your prepared remarks, Ed. So I know Delta itself has made a lot of progress in hiring and getting through a large wave of training, but there are other constraints outside of the airline industry's control with aircraft delivery slower than planned and aviation infrastructure still fairly strapped at airports and the FAA.

所以也許我會先問一個關於你在準備好的發言中提到的容量瓶頸的問題，Ed。所以我知道達美航空本身在招聘和接受大量培訓方面取得了很大進展，但還有其他航空業無法控制的限制因素，飛機交付速度比計劃慢，機場和美國聯邦航空局的航空基礎設施仍然相當緊張.

Now I know the answer will be different for Delta than some of your peers who are further behind in their pilot hiring. But how do you think about the time line to remove some of these bottlenecks across the industry that aren't directly in airlines' control? And I guess really what I'm asking is, do you expect there to be continued tension between supply and demand over the medium term? Just how do you think about those rolling off?

現在我知道達美航空的答案將不同於您的一些在飛行員招聘方面更落後的同行。但是，您如何看待消除行業中一些不受航空公司直接控制的瓶頸的時間表？我想我真正要問的是，您是否預計中期內供需之間會持續緊張？您如何看待那些滾落的人？

Thanks, Catie, and welcome back. Yes, I think you summed it up well. And I mentioned at the Capital Markets Day last month that while we -- at Delta, and I think the industry broadly provides you, our capacity expectations, I think expectations have quotation marks around them. And they do feel still a little bit more aspirational than -- because there are a number of things that are outside of our control.

謝謝，凱蒂，歡迎回來。是的，我認為你總結得很好。我在上個月的資本市場日提到，雖然我們——在達美航空，我認為這個行業廣泛地為你提供了我們的容量預期，我認為預期在它們周圍有引號。而且他們確實感覺比 - 因為有很多事情是我們無法控制的。

We're doing our very best to get our people in place. The hiring is strong. We have the team assembled. We need to get them through, principally our pilots through the training, the limited training devices and school house that we have available to us. We expect by the summer that we will be in position to have not just get through most of that bottleneck, but then the large resource drain that it takes with respect to all of the training that are existing team has to do to train our new employees, whether that's pilots or flight attendants, mechanics, the airports, reservations. It doesn't matter where in the system you sit.

我們正在盡最大努力讓我們的員工就位。招聘力度很大。我們已經組建了團隊。我們需要讓他們通過培訓，主要是讓我們的飛行員通過我們可用的有限培訓設備和校舍。我們預計到夏天，我們不僅能夠克服大部分瓶頸，而且還能解決現有團隊為培訓新員工而必須進行的所有培訓所需的大量資源消耗，無論是飛行員還是空乘人員、機械師、機場、預訂。您在系統中的位置並不重要。

That's hard to see. I can appreciate that if you're sitting in your chair, but it's very meaningful here on the airline. And then by summer, we hope, at Delta, that we'll be able to be back 100%. I also use the term fragile last month when speaking about the aviation system as we continue to return to the skies. And I think we've seen, just in the last few weeks, a couple of illustrations of that fragility.

這很難看。如果你坐在你的椅子上，我會很感激，但這對航空公司來說非常有意義。然後到夏天，我們希望達美能夠 100% 恢復正常。上個月，隨著我們繼續重返天空，我在談到航空系統時也使用了“脆弱”一詞。我認為，就在過去幾週，我們已經看到了這種脆弱性的一些例證。

So we're going to continue to do our best to make sure we don't fly in excess of our capabilities so that we can deliver a great product for our customers and provide all the tools and support for our employees.

因此，我們將繼續盡最大努力確保我們的飛行不會超出我們的能力範圍，以便我們能夠為我們的客戶提供出色的產品並為我們的員工提供所有工具和支持。

That's great. So helpful, Ed. And if I could maybe just for my follow-up, Glen, I know 75% of this year's growth by your core hubs. Can you help us think about RASM performance at your core hubs versus the rest of your network or even better since we know it's lower cost capacity? Can you help us think about the margin differential of adding capacity in core hubs versus competitive coastal hubs?

那太棒了。很有幫助，埃德。如果我可以只是為了我的後續行動，格倫，我知道你的核心樞紐今年增長的 75%。您能否幫助我們考慮 RASM 性能在您的核心樞紐與您網絡的其餘部分相比，甚至更好，因為我們知道它的成本更低？您能否幫助我們考慮一下增加核心樞紐運力與競爭性沿海樞紐運力的利潤差異？

Sure. I think we outlined that at the Investor Day and core hub is about 10 points higher than coastal hubs, and 10 points in margin and about 20 points in terms of RASM.

當然。我想我們概述了在投資者日和核心樞紐比沿海樞紐高約 10 個點，利潤率高 10 個點，RASM 高約 20 個點。

And I think as we continue to build our core hubs out, we will see -- that's one of the things we're counting on is acceleration of profitability in those core hubs and driving efficiency through getting them back to scale. As we mentioned in our Investor Day, we are already at scale in our coastal cities. That was our priority just because we thought it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity during the pandemic. And so that was our priority to ensure that we came out in a good position there. I think we're very happy with the positions we've established there, and now it's back to the core where we think it's actually easier lifting.

我認為，隨著我們繼續建設我們的核心樞紐，我們將會看到——我們所指望的事情之一是加速這些核心樞紐的盈利能力，並通過讓它們恢復規模來提高效率。正如我們在投資者日提到的，我們已經在沿海城市形成了規模。這是我們的首要任務，因為我們認為這是大流行期間千載難逢的機會。因此，確保我們在那里處於有利地位是我們的首要任務。我認為我們對在那裡建立的職位感到非常滿意，現在它又回到了我們認為實際上更容易提升的核心。

Your next question is coming from Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Ed, you said in your prepared remarks that you've never seen a more constructive industry backdrop. Black Swan event aside, what do you see are probably the biggest risks or things to watch out for the industry in 2023? Is it your previous response on kind of infrastructure and things that's outside of your control? Or kind of what are you looking at?

Ed，你在準備好的發言中說，你從未見過比這更具建設性的行業背景。撇開黑天鵝事件不談，您認為 2023 年該行業可能面臨的最大風險或需要注意的事項是什麼？這是您之前對某種基礎設施和您無法控制的事情的回應嗎？或者你在看什麼？

Well, thanks, Ravi. I -- that's right. I think the most important thing that Delta we can do is to continue to restore confidence back to the traveling public. We know the traveling -- the public wants to travel in outsized amounts that we see continuing, and we have to do our very best not to disappoint them as they return to the skies. I think 2022 was very difficult.

好吧，謝謝，拉維。我——沒錯。我認為達美航空能做的最重要的事情就是繼續恢復旅行公眾的信心。我們了解旅行——公眾希望進行大量旅行，我們看到這種情況仍在繼續，我們必須盡最大努力不讓他們在重返天空時讓他們失望。我認為 2022 年非常艱難。

In that regard, demand clearly exceeded our ability to supply it for lots of ways, including in the service levels with the exceptional degree of service that we want to provide our customers. And I think we all in the industry owe it to our customers to make sure we don't fly in excess of our capabilities. So I think that's the single biggest thing that we all need to pay attention to. And so I wouldn't call it a black swan risk other than just trying to stay within our capability.

在這方面，需求顯然超出了我們在很多方面的供應能力，包括我們希望為客戶提供的卓越服務水平。而且我認為我們行業中的所有人都應該感謝我們的客戶，以確保我們的飛行不會超出我們的能力範圍。所以我認為這是我們都需要關注的最重要的事情。因此，除了試圖保持在我們的能力範圍內之外，我不會將其稱為黑天鵝風險。

Understood. And maybe as a follow-up, maybe for Glen. Can you just unpack your thoughts on corporate in the near term, a little bit more? I think that's obviously one of the big focus areas for investors right now.

明白了。也許作為後續行動，也許是為了 Glen。您能否在短期內進一步闡述您對企業的看法？我認為這顯然是目前投資者關注的重點領域之一。

You said 96% of corporate in your survey say that they're going to be kind of flat to up in the near term, but obviously, macro is really choppy. We saw some of the hotel data kind of, coming into January, take a bit of a step down. What are you seeing in terms of your booking curve? Kind of any signs at all on cracks and corporate demand given where macro is?

你說在你的調查中有 96% 的公司表示他們在短期內會持平或上漲，但顯然，宏觀經濟真的很不穩定。我們看到一些酒店數據在進入 1 月份時有所下降。您對預訂曲線有何看法？鑑於宏觀經濟狀況，是否有關於裂縫和企業需求的任何跡象？

We've had our highest post-pandemic days in terms of corporate booking over the last week or 10 days. So we see a very strong post-holiday demand set. We're in kind of a strange period right now because you over '19. This is an MLK weekend, and MLK weekend was next weekend. So I think once we get past MLK, we'll give you a better view, but we're counting on it to stay in that roughly 80%.

在過去一周或 10 天內，我們的公司預訂量達到了大流行後最高的日子。因此，我們看到節後需求非常強勁。我們現在正處於一個奇怪的時期，因為你已經超過 19 歲了。這是 MLK 週末，而 MLK 週末就是下週末。所以我認為一旦我們通過 MLK，我們會給你一個更好的觀點，但我們指望它保持在大約 80%。

That's not -- the survey would indicate that it's better than that. So I think that's -- if it does materialize better than that, that's upside for our forward-looking forecasts.

那不是——調查表明它比那更好。所以我認為那是——如果它確實比這更好地實現，那對我們的前瞻性預測來說是有利的。

Your next question is coming from Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

Glen, if I look at the RASM guide for Q1, down about 6% just in absolute terms from Q4. So that's worse than normal Q4 to Q1 seasonality. Any color on that? And then when do we really start to see this hub tailwinds show up in RASM?

格倫，如果我看一下第一季度的 RASM 指南，從第四季度的絕對值來看，下降了約 6%。所以這比正常的 Q4 到 Q1 季節性更糟糕。上面有顏色嗎？然後我們什麼時候真正開始看到這種樞紐順風出現在 RASM 中？

Right. Well, quarter-over-quarter, we had a 2-point increase in domestic stage. So -- and that, again, is unique to Delta, and we think that's about 1 point of pressure from the 19 down to the 16. There's another international mix, length of haul changing internationally as well. So that's another point.

正確的。好吧，與上一季度相比，我們在國內階段增加了 2 個百分點。所以 - 這又是達美航空獨有的，我們認為從 19 到 16 的壓力大約是 1 個點。還有另一種國際組合，國際上的運輸長度也在發生變化。這是另一點。

And so then we're thinking about this as really being sequentially about 1 point difference to get from a 91% restoration all the way up to 99% restoration. So for core same-store store sales, we're actually seeing first quarter being stronger than fourth quarter.

因此，我們認為這實際上是從 91% 的恢復一直到 99% 的恢復大約 1 個點的差異。因此，對於核心同店銷售額，我們實際上看到第一季度強於第四季度。

And with that sequential improvement from February being better than January and March being better than February, so I think we're sitting in a pretty exciting place right now as we look at how '23 is starting.

隨著 2 月的連續改進優於 1 月和 3 月優於 2 月，所以我認為我們現在正處於一個非常令人興奮的位置，因為我們正在研究 23 年是如何開始的。

The rebuild of the core, we wish we could do it sooner. Again, I think our priority has been to make sure that we can sustain industry-leading operations. And so that's going to work throughout the year. I think when we talked about it at the Investor Day, we didn't really give you color that this is not a first quarter event.

核心的重建，我們希望我們能盡快完成。同樣，我認為我們的首要任務是確保我們能夠維持行業領先的運營。因此，這將全年有效。我認為當我們在投資者日談論它時，我們並沒有真正給你顏色這不是第一季度的事件。

While there's some rebuild domestically in the core, the major rebuilds, we expect, for example, Atlanta, which was about 85% last year in terms of seats to be close to 95% by summer and then 100% by fall with Minneapolis, close to Atlanta and then Detroit a little bit behind.

雖然在核心地區有一些國內重建，但主要的重建，我們預計，例如，亞特蘭大去年的座位率約為 85%，到夏季將接近 95%，然後到秋季明尼阿波利斯將達到 100%，關閉到亞特蘭大，然後是底特律。

So we're working on that. That's our priority, and we will get there, we believe, by fall, but it really doesn't impact significantly the first quarter's quarter.

所以我們正在努力。這是我們的首要任務，我們相信，到秋天我們會實現這一目標，但它確實不會對第一季度的季度產生重大影響。

Okay. And then just for Dan, just help bridge us from CASM up 3% to 4% in Q1 to down 2% to 4% for the year? You mentioned maintenance. How much does that hurt Q1? How much has that then helped the back half? Any color here?

好的。然後就丹而言，幫助我們從第一季度 CASM 上漲 3% 至 4% 到全年下跌 2% 至 4%？你提到了維護。這對 Q1 有多大影響？那對後半場有多大幫助？這裡有顏色嗎？

Yes, certainly. There's two pieces in there, maintenance being one. It's about a 2-point headwind in the first quarter and first half, and it's driven by engine induction levels and scope of work related to that.

是的，當然了。裡面有兩件，維護是一件。第一季度和上半年大約有 2 點逆風，這是由發動機感應水平和與之相關的工作範圍驅動的。

As you get into the back half of the year, that's a 2-point to 3-point benefit year-over-year. So a 5-point progression from beginning to end. And then the second piece of that is related to the completion of our rebuild and those rebuild costs stepping down. Most of our rebuild, over 85% of that cost is in the first half of the year. You don't have that in the back half of the year.

當你進入今年下半年時，這是一個同比 2 點到 3 點的收益。所以從頭到尾有 5 分的進度。然後第二部分與我們重建的完成和那些重建成本的下降有關。我們的大部分重建，超過 85% 的成本都發生在今年上半年。你在下半年沒有那個。

And as Glen just talked about, one of the enablers that efficiency is as we restore the core hubs, these low-cost subs, low [CP,] most cost competitive as we put that capacity and that drives efficiency of our assets and our workforce.

正如 Glen 剛才談到的那樣，效率的推動因素之一是我們恢復核心樞紐，這些低成本潛艇，低 [CP] 最具成本競爭力，因為我們投入了這種能力並提高了我們資產和勞動力的效率.

That is 5 points. So the 5 points related to that and the 5 points related to maintenance is 10-point progression as you go through the year from the beginning to the end, and that drives that continuous cadence improvement as you go through the quarters.

即5分。因此，與此相關的 5 分和與維護相關的 5 分是 10 分的進步，因為你從頭到尾經歷了這一年，並且在你經歷季度時推動了持續的節奏改進。

Your next question is coming from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

First, I wanted to maybe ask about just profitability levels. You finished the year with 8% margins and are guiding to Q1 with 4% to 6%. And given the full year guide, how do we think about margin progression throughout the year?

首先，我想問一下盈利水平。您以 8% 的利潤率結束了這一年，並以 4% 至 6% 的利潤率進入第一季度。鑑於全年指南，我們如何看待全年的利潤增長？

It will -- part of it is tied to the cost progression. And as you see that progression being up. And I said to you get about a 10-point improvement in cost from beginning to end, that will drive your expansion of margins throughout the year as you progress, along with what then Glen talked about, which was the commercial rebuild related to the core. So you'll see progression.

它將 - 其中一部分與成本進展相關。正如你看到的那樣，進展正在上升。我跟你說過，從頭到尾成本有 10 個百分點的改善，隨著你的進步，這將推動你全年利潤率的擴大，以及格倫當時談到的，即與核心相關的商業重建.所以你會看到進展。

Certainly, year-over-year, the improvement versus the comp that we're coming off drives some material improvement here in the first quarter, over $1 billion pretax, a big part of the step-up in earnings year-over-year, but you'll also see improvement as we go through the year.

當然，與去年同期相比，我們即將推出的公司的改進在第一季度推動了一些實質性的改進，超過 10 億美元的稅前收入，這是收入同比增長的很大一部分，但隨著我們度過這一年，您也會看到進步。

That's helpful. And then just maybe one follow-up related to that, just margin progression. I think, Ed, you mentioned high-margin Pacific routes opening up, I think it was Australia and Korea, what are 1 to 2 items we should watch for as we see that international recovery help margin momentum?

這很有幫助。然後可能只有一個與此相關的後續行動，只是保證金進展。我想，Ed，你提到了高利潤太平洋航線的開放，我認為是澳大利亞和韓國，當我們看到國際復甦有助於提高利潤勢頭時，我們應該關注哪些 1 到 2 個項目？

Our international recovery is well underway. And if you think about Europe, it will actually be bigger in the transatlantic this year than we were in '19 by about 8 points in terms of seats. Early advanced bookings for that are incredibly strong. So we're very pleased with how that's developing.

我們的國際復甦正在順利進行。如果你想想歐洲，今年跨大西洋地區的席位實際上會比我們 19 年時多 8 個百分點。早期的提前預訂非常強勁。所以我們對它的發展方式感到非常高興。

And so what's really left to reopen is China. And that's -- we're not going to get ahead of ourselves in terms of capacity to China. We're going to be very mindful to see how demand warrants and how this opens up, but that's the big question mark, I think, in terms of international demand for 2023 that we don't know yet. I think the others we're very confident that we have a good path forward that will get us back to '19 or bigger at better margins.

因此，真正需要重新開放的是中國。那就是——我們不會在對中國的能力方面超越自己。我們將非常關注需求如何保證以及它如何開放，但我認為，就我們尚不知道的 2023 年國際需求而言，這是一個大問號。我認為其他人我們非常有信心我們有一條很好的前進道路，這將使我們以更好的利潤率回到 19 年或更大。

And I think as we talked about at Investor Day, the multiyear progression on international, the structural elements here, right, the next-generation fleet that we're at, reconfiguration of more premium seats with DPS, better cargo capability, stronger partner network, all those are systematic drivers not only in this year but really on a multiyear basis.

我認為正如我們在投資者日談到的那樣，國際上的多年進展，這裡的結構要素，對，我們所處的下一代機隊，用 DPS 重新配置更多高級座位，更好的貨運能力，更強大的合作夥伴網絡，所有這些都是系統性的驅動因素，不僅在今年，而且在多年的基礎上。

And if you go back in our history, not to go into too much detail, but we had a multiyear restructure of our Asia capacity and that has been a drag on earnings for many years leading up to the pandemic. And now as we come out of that, we feel like our restructuring is really done in earnest. And so we should see really good improvements in specific profitability moving forward.

如果你回顧我們的歷史，不要談太多細節，但我們對亞洲產能進行了多年重組，這在大流行病爆發之前的很多年裡一直拖累收益。現在，當我們走出困境時，我們覺得我們的重組真的是認真完成的。因此，我們應該會看到特定盈利能力的真正改善正在向前發展。

Your next question is coming from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jamie Baker。

Glen, it's been a while since we visited the topic of domestic and international RASM premiums. We know what those metrics were pre-COVID. There's obviously been quite a bit of international upheaval since then, a bit of domestic change. And of course, the premium market at least is stronger than what I was anticipating in 2019. How should we think about the magnitude of Delta's RASM premiums going forward and any related timing?

格倫，我們已經有一段時間沒有討論國內和國際 RASM 保費的話題了。我們知道這些指標是 COVID 之前的。從那時起，國際上顯然發生了相當大的動盪，國內也發生了一些變化。當然，保費市場至少比我在 2019 年的預期要強勁。我們應該如何考慮達美未來 RASM 保費的規模以及任何相關的時機？

Yes. I think right now, we're sitting probably at a low point relative to the industry given our stage length and the way we rebuilt the airline. And I would expect to gain a couple -- 2 to 3 points domestically back as we get towards the back half of the year on how we rebuild the airline.

是的。我認為現在，考慮到我們的階段長度和我們重建航空公司的方式，我們可能處於相對於行業的低點。我希望在我們進入下半年如何重建航空公司時，在國內獲得 2 到 3 個百分點。

So that's how I view it. I'm pleased with at a macro level or at an individual flight level. I'm pleased with where we are. When you add it all up, the sum total looks like we're taking a step backwards, but I think it's really the way we've done it rather than a structural look away from Delta or anything that we're losing customers. So I think we're in a good spot for that.

這就是我的看法。我對宏觀層面或個人飛行層面感到滿意。我對我們的現狀感到滿意。當你將所有這些加起來時，總和看起來我們正在倒退一步，但我認為這確實是我們完成它的方式，而不是從結構上看遠離達美或我們正在失去客戶的任何事情。所以我認為我們處於一個很好的位置。

Okay. And second for Dan, as we think about the order book, particularly on the wide-body side, considering the OEM backlogs that -- Catie, welcome back, by the way, I mentioned in her question. How should we be thinking about the cadence of CapEx in the coming years?

好的。其次是丹，當我們考慮訂單時，特別是在寬體方面，考慮到 OEM 積壓——凱蒂，歡迎回來，順便說一句，我在她的問題中提到過。我們應該如何考慮未來幾年資本支出的節奏？

We tend to model you on a normalized basis, but one of your competitors is on a CapEx holiday, another right now is on a CapEx vendor. I'm just trying to assess whether 2024 represents a potential peak in cash flow in light of future aircraft needs.

我們傾向於在標準化的基礎上為您建模，但您的一個競爭對手正在資本支出假期中，另一個現在正在使用資本支出供應商。我只是想根據未來的飛機需求評估 2024 年是否代表現金流量的潛在峰值。

I think it's steady as it goes. We've been very consistent, very deliberate, very disciplined related to CapEx. We certainly had this period where this past year in 2022, there was some catch-up in there. We're continuing to do that here in 2023 for what was deferred for a couple of years. But I think as you exit 2024, you're normalized now. At the same time, we're getting bigger as an airline and growing from that perspective. But I think it's a good foundation for us as it relates to where we're stepping off in 2024.

我認為它是穩定的。我們在資本支出方面一直非常一致、非常慎重、非常有紀律。在過去的 2022 年，我們當然有過這段時期，那裡有一些追趕。我們將在 2023 年繼續這樣做，因為推遲了幾年。但我認為當你退出 2024 年時，你現在已經正常化了。與此同時，我們作為一家航空公司正在變得越來越大，並從這個角度發展。但我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的基礎，因為它關係到我們在 2024 年要走的路。

Yes, Jamie, this is Ed. I'd agree with Dan's comments. Don't forget, we are exclusively taking Airbus equipment over the last couple of years, the next couple of years pretty much, and we'll be back with the MAX starting in '25.

是的，傑米，這是艾德。我同意丹的意見。別忘了，我們在過去幾年專門採用空中客車設備，未來幾年也差不多，我們將從 25 年開始使用 MAX。

So we did not have any supply interruption of any note over the last couple of years through the pandemic this year or the years going forward. So there's a consistency, and I'm confident you're going to see a -- you're not going to see any jumps or any significant declines. We're ensuring that we're staying rated within our sweet spot here on the fleet.

因此，在過去幾年中，通過今年或未來幾年的大流行，我們沒有任何鈔票的供應中斷。所以這是一種一致性，我相信你會看到——你不會看到任何跳躍或任何顯著下降。我們確保我們的評級保持在機隊的最佳位置。

Your next question is coming from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Maybe just start with Glen on transatlantic. Typically, this is a pretty quiet time of the year, but it appears the industry sort of doing less seasonal shaping or kind of deseasonalizing transatlantic, which probably makes sense in light of rebuild for the summer. Can you just talk about what you're seeing in Transatlantic, less about this summer and more about getting from here to there?

也許只是從跨大西洋的格倫開始。通常情況下，這是一年中相當安靜的時間，但似乎該行業正在減少季節性調整或某種程度上使跨大西洋淡季化，鑑於夏季的重建，這可能是有道理的。你能談談你在跨大西洋看到的東西嗎？少說今年夏天，多說說從這裡到那裡？

Right. Well, there's not a lot of room between here and there. We're seeing really robust bookings for March and beyond. So it's really -- if I look at how we view the transatlantic, there's April through October peak spring, March is getting to be a peak month these days. So that leaves you really the non-holiday weeks in November and the non-holiday weeks in January and February as really your low periods.

正確的。好吧，這里和那里之間沒有太多空間。我們看到 3 月及以後的預訂量非常強勁。所以這真的是——如果我看看我們如何看待跨大西洋，就會發現 4 月到 10 月是春季的高峰期，現在 3 月將成為高峰期。這樣一來，11 月的非假期周和 1 月和 2 月的非假期週實際上就是您的低谷期。

And so how we've shaped it this year is we've had a bigger transatlantic in 2019. We had some operational issues in Amsterdam. Excluding those, we were very pleased with the results in the off-peak season, and it's setting up really well because I think one of the things that you forget about building up for the summer is the first few weeks for the high point of sale U.S. travel are always throwaway weeks because you've got a significant amount of outbound traffic and very light inbound traffic.

因此，我們今年的塑造方式是，我們在 2019 年擁有更大的跨大西洋航線。我們在阿姆斯特丹遇到了一些運營問題。除了那些，我們對淡季的結果感到非常滿意，而且它的設置非常好，因為我認為你忘記為夏季建立的一件事是銷售高峰期的前幾週美國旅行總是可以隨意度過幾週，因為你有大量的出境流量和非常少的入境流量。

So getting those out of the way earlier in the season and really allowing the summer peak to be even more robust than it has been before is, I think, how we're shaping. So I don't know if I answered your question, but I'd say we really like what we saw. There are things we're going to do differently next year. There are learnings from this year that we can improve on. So we're excited about those learnings. And then really excited about the summer peak season to Europe. We think this is going to be a record breaker.

因此，我認為，在本賽季早些時候將這些問題排除在外，並真正讓夏季高峰期比以往更加強勁，這就是我們正在塑造的方式。所以我不知道我是否回答了你的問題，但我會說我們真的很喜歡我們所看到的。明年我們將做一些不同的事情。從今年的經驗中我們可以改進。所以我們對這些學習感到興奮。然後真的很興奮夏季旺季去歐洲。我們認為這將打破紀錄。

And then just on fuel, maybe this is Ed or Dan. You own a refinery. Can you talk a little bit about your outlook for jet fuel? And I'm not asking for guidance, we can obviously see that. But just with respect to the unusually high crack spreads and refining margins, which week-to-week look like we're going to get relief, and then that relief sort of goes away. Obviously, you have a hedge in that regard, but I wondered if you could talk kind of intermediate term about when the -- when we see sort of refining margin relief?

然後只是加油，也許這是埃德或丹。你擁有一家煉油廠。您能談談您對噴氣燃料的展望嗎？我不是在尋求指導，我們顯然可以看到這一點。但就異常高的裂解價差和煉油利潤率而言，每週看起來我們都會得到緩解，然後這種緩解就會消失。顯然，你在這方面有對沖，但我想知道你是否可以談談什麼時候 - 當我們看到煉油利潤率下降時？

Yes. No, you saw it, yes, constrained markets throughout 2022, stayed elevated certainly was disrupted significantly in the second quarter, particularly -- we don't anticipate it being at those levels for the current year, giving back. But I would say for the next 12 to 18 months, I think you're at least in a period where you're structurally constrained.

是的。不，你看到了，是的，整個 2022 年市場受限，保持高位肯定在第二季度受到嚴重干擾，特別是 - 我們預計今年不會達到這些水平，回饋。但我想說，在接下來的 12 到 18 個月裡，我認為你至少處於結構性受限的時期。

The global flows for both oil and refined products have changed. Things that used to revert both gasoline, diesel and jet coming out of Europe into the U.S. aren't taking place. Utilization of refineries are high, and you get disruptions. You've seen it as the winter storms came through in December and incredibly low temperatures, refineries were impacted and you're seeing the rippling effect here in January and the unusual nature, even in the last 7 to 10 days, where the physical market is short. Jet, many times throughout 2022, it was diesel. And you see a spike. And then the -- as the refineries get the utilization back up and optimize you get a balancing, but they're still tight, and we expect them to stay elevated.

石油和精煉產品的全球流動發生了變化。過去用於將從歐洲輸出到美國的汽油、柴油和噴氣式飛機還原的事情沒有發生。煉油廠的利用率很高，而且您會受到干擾。你已經看到了它，因為 12 月的冬季風暴和令人難以置信的低溫，煉油廠受到影響，你看到 1 月份這裡的漣漪效應和不尋常的性質，即使在過去 7 到 10 天，現貨市場是短。噴氣式飛機，在整個 2022 年多次使用柴油機。你會看到一個尖峰。然後 - 隨著煉油廠恢復利用率並優化您獲得平衡，但它們仍然很緊張，我們希望它們保持高位。

Your next question is coming from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

Glen, could you talk a little bit more about what you're seeing on the corporate demand side on the -- across the international entities? And just as you get to the summer, I realized it's early days, but where you expect kind of capacity be restored across these entities?

格倫，你能多談談你在國際實體的企業需求方面看到的情況嗎？就在你到了夏天的時候，我意識到現在還為時過早，但是你期望這些實體的容量恢復到什麼程度？

Yes. I think we talked a little bit about that in the previous question. We expect the transatlantic to be about 108% restored to 2019 levels. So it will be bigger than 2019. Most of that is engaged as we bring in the newer, more efficient fleets. So we have some exciting departures.

是的。我想我們在上一個問題中談到了一點。我們預計跨大西洋航線將恢復到 2019 年水平的 108% 左右。所以它會比 2019 年更大。隨著我們引進更新、更高效的機隊，其中大部分都是參與的。所以我們有一些令人興奮的離開。

We haven't loaded our entire summer schedule yet. That will be announced over the next 8 to 10 days. There are a few more things we need to put back in. And then in the Pacific, absent of China, we are more than rebuilt in Australia. We're more than rebuilt in Korea, and we are about 75% rebuilt in Japan. We expect to be somewhere between 75% and 100% rebuilt in Japan.

我們還沒有載入整個夏季時間表。這將在接下來的 8 到 10 天內公佈。還有一些東西我們需要放回去。然後在沒有中國的太平洋地區，我們不僅僅是在澳大利亞重建。我們不僅在韓國進行了重建，而且在日本進行了大約 75% 的重建。我們預計將在日本重建 75% 到 100%。

If we do or don't receive slot waivers -- if we do receive slot waivers, we're probably sitting at 75%. If we don't, we'll go back to 100%. And then China is the big question mark, as I mentioned earlier. We just don't know what's going to go on there with demand. So we're not going to get ahead of that and publish a China schedule for the summer that we don't know if we can fly and we don't know if the demand will be there. So we'll let demand drive what we're going to -- we're going to fly in China.

如果我們收到或沒有收到插槽豁免——如果我們確實收到插槽豁免，我們可能會坐在 75%。如果我們不這樣做，我們將回到 100%。正如我之前提到的，中國是一個大問號。我們只是不知道那裡的需求會發生什麼。所以我們不會提前發布夏季的中國時間表，我們不知道我們是否可以飛行，我們也不知道那裡是否有需求。所以我們會讓需求來驅動我們的計劃——我們將在中國飛行。

And then last but not least, in Latin, we are very close to fully restoring Latin right now with Deep South really starting to turn on with our partners at LATAM and getting some really, really positive early results on that. So I think other than China, we are fully restored internationally, and we see international restoration where countries are open, and that's very similar to domestic at about 80%.

最後但並非最不重要的是，在拉丁語中，我們現在非常接近完全恢復拉丁語，Deep South 真的開始與我們在 LATAM 的合作夥伴一起開啟，並在這方面取得了一些非常非常積極的早期結果。所以我認為除了中國，我們在國際上已經完全恢復，我們看到國家開放的國際恢復，這與國內非常相似，大約 80%。

I appreciate that. And just kind of a quick follow-up. Just on the kind of change fees and the revenue that you're seeing here, the dropping of the change fees, what kind of an impact is that having as you kind of think about the network or the revenue? And will it be different once things are fully restored versus where it is today?

我很感激。只是一種快速跟進。關於您在這裡看到的變更費用和收入的種類，變更費用的下降，在您考慮網絡或收入時會產生什麼樣的影響？完全恢復後與今天的情況會有所不同嗎？

Yes. Change fees accounted for almost $1 billion of revenue in the pre-pandemic world. And we were on a path, even absent of the pandemic to change, change fees. They have become onerous, people didn't like them and trying to give customers what they want -- we're on a path to a different approach that got accelerated. And I think we're very happy with where we are today, giving customers choice in how they want to fly.

是的。在大流行前的世界中，變更費佔收入的近 10 億美元。我們正走在改變、改變費用的道路上，即使沒有大流行。它們變得繁重，人們不喜歡它們，並試圖為客戶提供他們想要的東西——我們正走在一條加速的不同方法的道路上。我認為我們對今天的現狀感到非常滿意，讓客戶可以選擇他們想要的飛行方式。

And I'd say we're counting on about half of that $1 billion to be replaced by people who want flexible, fully refundable at time of purchase, which is an option that they're choosing as opposed to being imposed on that. And the rest of that is then coming from a higher share of total customer base and upsells more than covering to produce the record revenues that we expect this year.

我想說的是，我們指望這 10 億美元中的大約一半將被那些希望在購買時靈活、可全額退款的人所取代，這是他們選擇的一種選擇，而不是強加於此的選擇。其餘部分則來自總客戶群中更高的份額，並且追加銷售超過了覆蓋範圍，以產生我們今年預期的創紀錄收入。

Your next question is coming from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

Just on the question that Scott talked about the bridge on the cost side. I don't think you mentioned gauge or asset utilization improving throughout there. Can you just provide some color around where you expect those 2 metrics to kind of be meaningful tailwinds as you move throughout the year? The reason why I asked is that there's a lot of changes on the regional side. I would think that, that would be a pretty big tailwind from you?

關於 Scott 在成本方面談到橋樑的問題。我認為您沒有提到整個過程中指標或資產利用率的提高。你能否在你期望這兩個指標在你全年移動時成為有意義的順風的地方提供一些顏色？我問的原因是區域方面有很多變化。我會認為，這對你來說是一個很大的推動力？

Yes, the mainline asset utilization increases about -- mid-single digit, about 5% as we progress through the year. So we get the benefit associated with that. And as we talked about at Investor Day, we continue to get the benefit associated with age.

是的，隨著我們今年的進展，主線資產利用率大約增加了個位數中位數，大約增加了 5%。所以我們得到了與之相關的好處。正如我們在投資者日談到的那樣，我們繼續獲得與年齡相關的好處。

Just related to regional flying, as you know, we have about 1/3 of our regional flight -- flying that has not been flown today. And that's also one of the disparities between seat restoration and capacity restoration. We're not expecting a significant increase of that until the end of '23 and into '24. So we're going to be carrying that...

與支線飛行有關，正如你所知，我們約有 1/3 的支線航班——今天還沒有飛過。這也是座位恢復和容量恢復之間的差異之一。我們預計在 23 年底和 24 年之前不會有顯著增加。所以我們要帶著那個...

We're carrying that underutilization regional network absolutely in our run rate.

我們絕對在我們的運行率中攜帶未充分利用的區域網絡。

Okay. Okay. That makes sense. And then on the AmEx targets, I'm a little surprised that those aren't being revised up from 6.5%, from 5.5%, I mean that's basically mirroring the capacity growth year-over-year. I would just think that there would be some outperformance just given the fact that, that portfolio has grown a fair bit.

好的。好的。這就說得通了。然後關於美國運通的目標，我有點驚訝這些目標沒有從 6.5% 上調，從 5.5% 上調，我的意思是這基本上反映了運力同比增長。我只是認為，鑑於該投資組合已經增長了一些，因此會有一些出色的表現。

Can you just talk about like what you need to see to push those targets up? Or did you just see a lot of pull forward in consumer spend that kind of inflated the 2022 number? Just trying to unpack that a little bit.

你能談談你需要看到什麼來推動這些目標嗎？還是您只是看到消費者支出的大量增長導致 2022 年的數字膨脹？只是想把它拆開一點。

Well, we're pretty excited about hitting a $6.5 billion number. Hopefully, there's upside to that. I think we -- it's January. We don't want to commit to that. But -- we're ahead of our long-term goals for that, and we continue to find ways to accelerate our long-term goals.

好吧，我們對達到 65 億美元的數字感到非常興奮。希望這有好處。我想我們——現在是一月份。我們不想承諾這一點。但是——我們已經提前實現了我們的長期目標，我們將繼續尋找加速實現我們長期目標的方法。

And I think next year or maybe even in June, we're going to give you what's beyond the $7 billion because our first market was how do you get the $7 billion? And when we said that, I think it was a daunting task for us. It was a daunting task for the team. We're there, right? And I think the question really for us, and I was investor, okay, you're at the $7 billion, what's next? And that's what we've got to be working on showing you that we're not done here.

而且我認為明年甚至可能在 6 月，我們會給你超過 70 億美元的東西，因為我們的第一個市場是你如何獲得 70 億美元？當我們這麼說時，我認為這對我們來說是一項艱鉅的任務。這對團隊來說是一項艱鉅的任務。我們在那裡，對吧？我認為這個問題真的對我們來說是個問題，我是投資者，好吧，你有 70 億美元，下一步是什麼？這就是我們必須努力向您展示我們還沒有完成的事情。

Yes. And the other thing, Conor, is that it's not driven by capacity, as you can appreciate, it's driven by the spend on the portfolio. So that's a pretty sizable increase in portfolio spend as well.

是的。另一件事，康納，它不是由容量驅動的，正如你所理解的那樣，它是由投資組合的支出驅動的。因此，這也是投資組合支出的相當大的增長。

Your next question is coming from Helane Becker from Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

Sort of a question about tech ops. Pre-pandemic, you guys were building that business out. It was going to be a more than $1 billion revenue business at some point. How are you thinking about that coming out of the pandemic and into sort of the middle part of this decade into the end? Or is that something that is another focus or is that being supplanted by the other revenues that you're talking about?

有點關於技術操作的問題。大流行前，你們正在建立這項業務。在某個時候，這將是一項收入超過 10 億美元的業務。您如何看待從大流行病中走出來並進入本十年中期到末尾的情況？或者這是另一個焦點，還是被您正在談論的其他收入所取代？

Helane, this is Ed. We are incredibly excited about your question and the MRO. And in fact, we made great progress during the pandemic to continue to accelerate that vision when we sign a deal to acquire the LEAP as part of the MAX deal. So we now have basically all the new engine technologies on our platform with exclusive arrangements and opportunities for third-party work that will extend over the next 20 years.

海蘭，這是埃德。我們對您的問題和 MRO 感到無比興奮。事實上，我們在大流行期間取得了很大進展，在我們簽署協議以作為 MAX 交易的一部分收購 LEAP 時繼續加速實現這一願景。因此，我們現在基本上在我們的平台上擁有所有新引擎技術，並在未來 20 年內為第三方工作提供獨家安排和機會。

Obviously, in the short term, our focus is on -- to every extent we have labor, and we have supply challenges focusing on the Delta metal and continuing to get the airline itself back up and running. So the MRO has taken a little bit of a backseat over the short term.

顯然，在短期內，我們的重點是——在各個方面我們都有勞動力，我們面臨著以三角洲金屬為重點的供應挑戰，並繼續讓航空公司本身恢復運營。因此，MRO 在短期內退居二線。

But we continue to make the investments where we've got the commitments from all of our partners on the engine side. And this is something you're going to hear a fair bit about in June when we look at the strategic discussion that we're looking to create.

但我們會繼續在引擎方面的所有合作夥伴做出承諾的情況下進行投資。當我們查看我們希望創建的戰略討論時，您將在 6 月份聽到很多關於這一點的內容。

Right in June. Okay. That's going to be really helpful. And then, Ed, can I please ask you in June, if you will also update us on your diversity and inclusion targets. We talked a lot about that pre-pandemic. And then during the pandemic, you've obviously hired 25,000 new people. You mentioned that in your prepared remarks.

就在六月。好的。這真的很有幫助。然後，Ed，我能否在 6 月份問你，你是否也會向我們更新你的多樣性和包容性目標。我們談了很多關於大流行前的事情。然後在大流行期間，你顯然僱傭了 25,000 名新員工。你在準備好的發言中提到了這一點。

Can you also, at some point, update us on how that's going? And whether you're meeting your own internal goals? You don't have to share those with us, but if you can share with us how it's coming along. That might be helpful.

您能否在某個時候向我們介紹最新情況？您是否正在實現自己的內部目標？你不必與我們分享這些，但如果你能與我們分享它是如何進行的。這可能會有幫助。

We will certainly do that, and that was already in the plan, Helane, to go through that in June. The good news is that we are making great progress and we will share our targets because we share them publicly.

我們一定會這樣做，Helane，這已經在計劃中，要在 6 月完成。好消息是我們正在取得很大進展，我們將分享我們的目標，因為我們公開分享了這些目標。

Your next question is coming from Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Didora。

First question for Glen. I guess, based on my math, it seems like you're assuming PRASM could start to decline sort of in the high single digits year-over-year as you move through 2023 to kind of get to your 15% to 20% revenue outlook. What drives that assumption, particularly given kind of the RASM benefit you should have from your mid-continent growth strategy?

格倫的第一個問題。我想，根據我的數學，你似乎假設 PRASM 可能會開始以高個位數的方式同比下降，因為你會在 2023 年達到你的 15% 到 20% 的收入前景.是什麼推動了這一假設，特別是考慮到您應該從中部大陸增長戰略中獲得的 RASM 收益？

I think when we look at the progression through the quarter, we had some very extenuating circumstances last second quarter and early third quarter with fuel running up over $120 a barrel. And as we think about how we do fuel recapture on the way up, we also -- as inflation cools down and as fuel comes down, we're not going to keep all of that.

我認為，當我們審視本季度的進展時，我們在上個第二季度和第三季度初遇到了一些非常情有可原的情況，燃料價格上漲超過每桶 120 美元。當我們考慮如何在上升過程中回收燃料時，我們也——隨著通貨膨脹降溫和燃料下降，我們不會保留所有這些。

We're going to keep as much of it as we can. And we're not anticipating that big mobile and fuel, which is driving the sequential decrease. So we'll see how it actually rolls out and hopefully it's better than that, but that's how we're thinking about how the year progresses in terms of absolute unit revenues.

我們將盡可能多地保留它。而且我們沒有預料到推動環比下降的大型移動設備和燃料。因此，我們將看到它實際上是如何推出的，並希望它比這更好，但這就是我們如何考慮這一年在絕對單位收入方面的進展情況。

That makes sense. And then I just ask you kind of strategically here, Glen. As you've seen the revenue environment continue to show this strength pretty much since kind of almost a year ago, are you seeing any changes in behavior from any of your competitors that may show that they're acting differently today than they would have pre-pandemic?

這就說得通了。然後我只是在這裡從戰略上問你，格倫。正如您所看到的，自大約一年前以來，收入環境繼續顯示出這種優勢，您是否看到任何競爭對手的行為發生任何變化，這些變化可能表明他們今天的行為與以往不同-大流行？

Yes. We don't really talk about how our competitors behave. I think what we've seen is we've seen a very big shift in how and why people travel, and trying to stay ahead of that in our own planning and make sure that we are capturing where people want to go and what products they want to buy. And that's really our continued focus.

是的。我們並沒有真正談論我們的競爭對手的行為。我認為我們所看到的是，我們已經看到人們旅行的方式和原因發生了非常大的轉變，並試圖在我們自己的計劃中保持領先地位，並確保我們正在捕捉人們想去的地方以及他們想要的產品想購買。這確實是我們持續關注的重點。

And it's been a very interesting journey. And as you look at individual market levels, we're very different sizes than we were pre-pandemic based on where our customers want us to take in these days.

這是一段非常有趣的旅程。當您查看各個市場水平時，我們的規模與大流行前的規模大不相同，這取決於我們的客戶如今希望我們採取的行動。

Your next question is coming from Mike Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg。

Glen, just a quick question, sort of following up on Conor's on loyalty. It feels like with the free WiFi, this is going to be a banner year for SkyMiles. I think last year $8.5 million. How do we think about the conversion of number of SkyMiles to ultimately those who uptake on the credit card? I think this last year, it was like an 8:1 ratio. Is that kind of what it's been historically?

格倫，只是一個簡短的問題，有點像康納關於忠誠度的問題。感覺有了免費 WiFi，這將是“飛凡里程常客計劃”豐收的一年。我認為去年是 850 萬美元。我們如何考慮將“飛凡里程常客計劃”數量轉換為最終使用信用卡的人？我認為去年的比例是 8:1。歷史上是這樣的嗎？

Yes, I think that's about right. That's one of the -- we see the more engaged the customers with Delta, the higher their satisfaction is. And so that's really part of that ecosystem that we're really trying to grow. SkyMiles is an entry point. Of course, as everybody knows, it's free. And now they have an incentive to do that because there's an immediate benefit to join because you get the free WiFi.

是的，我認為這是正確的。這是其中之一——我們看到客戶與 Delta 的互動越多，他們的滿意度就越高。因此，這確實是我們真正想要發展的生態系統的一部分。 “飛凡里程常客計劃”是一個切入點。當然，眾所周知，它是免費的。現在他們有了這樣做的動力，因為加入後會立即受益，因為您可以獲得免費 WiFi。

And so how do we translate that ultimately into more loyal customers who eventually will wind up getting some of our other products? And that's really what our flywheel is right now and how we're going to continue to press forward in terms of loyalty.

那麼我們如何最終將其轉化為更忠誠的客戶，他們最終會購買我們的其他一些產品呢？這就是我們現在的飛輪，以及我們將如何繼續在忠誠度方面向前推進。

Great. Very good. And then just second question on Dan, you talked about non-ops, the $470 million headwind, obviously, noncash pension expense, maybe there's some other items. How do we think about through the year? Is that ratably? Is it lumpy? And what tax rate should we be using on March quarter, full year?

偉大的。非常好。然後是關於丹的第二個問題，你談到了非運營，4.7 億美元的逆風，顯然，非現金養老金支出，也許還有其他一些項目。我們如何看待這一年？那是相當嗎？是塊狀的嗎？我們應該在全年的三月季度使用什麼稅率？

Yes, 1.3 for the year. The first quarter, think of it being closer to -- if it was ratable, it would be about [330] a quarter. First quarter will be a little bit higher. We think about it as [360] to [365] associated with it. And tax rate continues to be consistent, right, in that 24% to 24.5%.

是的，今年是 1.3。第一季度，想想它更接近——如果它是可評價的，那將是大約 [330] 個季度。第一季度會高一點。我們將其視為與之關聯的 [360] 至 [365]。稅率繼續保持一致，對，在 24% 到 24.5% 之間。

We'll now go to our final analyst question.

我們現在將轉到我們最後的分析師問題。

Certainly, your next question is coming from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

當然，您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski。

Keep it to one as well. Dan, can you talk about your normal amortization this year, which I think is about $2.5 billion relative to the $2 billion of free cash flow that you guys are anticipating? And what are your options here, especially in a higher interest rate environment? How does that change your capital priorities in any way?

也保持一個。丹，你能談談你今年的正常攤銷嗎？相對於你們預期的 20 億美元自由現金流，我認為這大約是 25 億美元？您在這裡有什麼選擇，尤其是在利率較高的環境中？這將如何以任何方式改變您的資本優先順序？

Yes, we have normal maturities at 2.4. We had 1.8 this past year, and we ended up retiring $4.5 billion of debt. Ken and the team were opportunistic in regards to debt that we can take out that we think is higher cost and has good economic payback associated with it.

是的，我們的正常期限為 2.4。去年我們有 1.8 個，我們最終還清了 45 億美元的債務。肯和團隊在我們認為成本較高且具有良好經濟回報的債務方面持機會主義態度。

And given our liquidity position, as we progress through this year, we'll continue to look at those options. There are certainly a number out there that are targets for us, but we'll either do it through how we've done it with -- through tenders, but also just as you go open market repurchases and being smart and going after the higher cost debt. That's a priority. We want to drive down that nonop interest line over time. And the team is good at it. They've done it, did it for a decade, they'll continue to do it.

鑑於我們的流動性狀況，隨著我們今年的進展，我們將繼續研究這些選擇。肯定有一些數字是我們的目標，但我們要么通過我們的方式來做到這一點——通過招標，但也就像你去公開市場回購和聰明地追求更高的目標一樣成本債務。這是當務之急。隨著時間的推移，我們希望降低非操作興趣線。團隊擅長於此。他們已經做到了，做了十年，他們將繼續這樣做。

And I guess, Dan, how does a higher interest rate environment here change your capital priorities, if at all?

我想，丹，如果有的話，這裡的高利率環境會如何改變你的資本優先順序？

About changing it, I think it does -- when it may change in regards to how you look at some of your debt, some of them that are off of LIBOR and floating have become more attractive to retire in certain situations.

關於改變它，我認為它確實如此——當它可能改變你如何看待你的一些債務時，其中一些不屬於倫敦銀行同業拆借利率和浮動利率的債務在某些情況下變得更有吸引力退休。

So -- but we're continuing to be focused on -- as you know, it's reinvesting back in the business, but also this path to deleveraging. So continuing to strengthen the balance sheet, reduce debt and drive down those leverage ratios.

所以——但我們繼續關注——如你所知，它正在重新投資於業務，也是去槓桿化的道路。因此，繼續加強資產負債表，減少債務並降低杠桿率。

That will wrap up the analyst portion of the call. I'll now turn it over to Tim Mapes, our Chief Marketing and Communications Officer, to start the media questions.

這將結束電話的分析師部分。我現在將把它交給我們的首席營銷和傳播官 Tim Mapes，開始媒體提問。

Thank you, Julie. Matt, if you don't mind, could we reiterate for the members of the media, the practice for getting in the call queue? And in addition to thanking each of them for their time this morning, just to remind everyone around one question and one follow-up so we can get through as many of these as we could, please.

謝謝你，朱莉。馬特，如果你不介意的話，我們可以向媒體成員重申一下進入電話隊列的做法嗎？除了感謝他們今天早上撥出寶貴時間，我還要提醒大家注意一個問題和一個後續問題，這樣我們才能盡可能多地解決這些問題。

Absolutely. (Operator Instructions) Your first question is coming from Claire Bushey from Financial Times.

絕對地。 （操作員說明）你的第一個問題來自金融時報的克萊爾布希。

I was wondering, what needs, in your opinion, to happen at the FAA so that what happened on Wednesday doesn't happen again?

我想知道，在您看來，FAA 需要做些什麼才能避免週三發生的事情再次發生？

Claire, it's Ed. I missed the first part of your question. Your question is what? What does the FAA need to do in order to ensure there's no repeat of Wednesday?

克萊爾，是埃德。我錯過了你問題的第一部分。你的問題是什麼？ FAA 需要做什麼才能確保不會重演週三的情況？

Correct.

正確的。

Well, if you saw my comments this morning on CNBC, I think it's very clear that there has to be a call to action amongst our political leaders, the Congress and the White House, to fund and properly provide the FAA the resources they need to do the job.

好吧，如果你今天早上在 CNBC 上看到我的評論，我認為很明顯，我們的政治領導人、國會和白宮必須呼籲採取行動，為 FAA 提供資金並適當提供他們需要的資源做這份工作。

We've long talked about the need for modernization of our air traffic control systems. I think this is a crystal clear example of the challenge the FAA has faced when you have aging systems that aren't as resilient as they need to be. You have tools and technologies that are somewhat outdated and staffing levels, not where they need to be.

我們長期以來一直在討論空中交通管制系統現代化的必要性。我認為這是一個非常清楚的例子，說明當您的系統老化且彈性不如所需時，FAA 所面臨的挑戰。您擁有有些過時的工具和技術以及人員配備水平，而不是他們需要的地方。

So FAA I know is doing the very best they can with what they have, but we need to stand behind the FAA and we need to take them off the kind of year-by-year funding that seems like they go through that's caught up in political negotiations and realize the importance of having a strong aviation infrastructure and the importance of that to our economy as well as our public.

所以我知道美國聯邦航空局正在盡其所能，但我們需要支持美國聯邦航空局，我們需要讓他們擺脫那種似乎他們正在經歷的逐年資助政治談判並認識到擁有強大的航空基礎設施的重要性及其對我們的經濟和公眾的重要性。

Your next question is coming from Alison Sider from Wall Street Journal.

你的下一個問題來自華爾街日報的 Alison Sider。

I guess sort of a related question. But I guess curious, how much do you think that the infrastructure and aerospace issues are likely to be a constraint on growth for the industry overall, whether it vulnerability of technical systems and lack of redundancy or just controller staffing or what have you? How impactable do you expect that to be going forward?

我想這是一個相關的問題。但我很好奇，您認為基礎設施和航空航天問題在多大程度上可能成為整個行業增長的製約因素，無論是技術系統的脆弱性和缺乏冗餘，還是僅僅是控制器人員配備，或者您有什麼？您認為這會產生多大的影響？

Well, it's a current constraint on our ability to grow as an industry. You see the length of flight times they're taking to complete missions. You see the -- some of the challenges the air traffic control -- controllers have when you get into congested space in the Northeast or down in Florida.

好吧，這是我們作為一個行業發展能力的當前限制。您會看到他們完成任務所需的飛行時間長度。當你進入東北部或佛羅里達州的擁擠空間時，你會看到 - 空中交通管制的一些挑戰 - 管制員所面臨的挑戰。

There's been a lot -- it's just even during the pandemic itself some real challenges that we've experienced. So there's no question that the investment in a modernized air traffic control system will drive a tremendous amount of efficiencies as well as growth, which will mean better service for the American public.

有很多 - 即使在大流行期間，我們也遇到了一些真正的挑戰。因此，毫無疑問，對現代化空中交通管制系統的投資將極大地提高效率和增長，這將意味著為美國公眾提供更好的服務。

And I guess, can you talk a little bit about sort of what sort of systems or backup or its own redundancy Delta has, like if there was another outage of the NOTAM system like we saw earlier this week? Is that something that Delta can kind of deal with or workaround? Or is that something you need to have? Or yes, there's anything you can share on that?

我想，你能談談達美有什麼樣的系統或備份或它自己的冗餘嗎，就像我們本週早些時候看到的 NOTAM 系統又一次中斷一樣？這是 Delta 可以處理或解決的問題嗎？或者這是你需要的東西？或者是的，您有什麼可以分享的嗎？

The NOTAM system that went down is an essential system, and no airline would fly without having that capability. Interestingly, at Delta, we had and have a long -- a fairly old backup technology that does see that. And we were able to keep some of the NOTAM information flowing to Delta.

發生故障的 NOTAM 系統是一個必不可少的系統，如果沒有該功能，任何航空公司都無法飛行。有趣的是，在 Delta，我們擁有並且擁有很長一段時間——一種相當古老的備份技術確實可以看到這一點。我們能夠讓一些 NOTAM 信息流向達美航空。

So we probably had a little better opportunity to fly during this stoppage as compared to anyone else, but out of deference to the FAA and making certain that we gave them the ability to make the decisions, we didn't utilize that backup system. But -- it's an important part of our resiliency and redundancy.

因此，與其他任何人相比，我們在這次停飛期間可能有更好的飛行機會，但出於對美國聯邦航空局的尊重並確保我們賦予他們做出決定的能力，我們沒有使用該備份系統。但是——這是我們彈性和冗餘的重要組成部分。

Your next question is coming from Kelly Yamanouchi from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

你的下一個問題來自亞特蘭大憲法報的凱利山之內。

Your next question is coming from Mary Schlangenstein from Bloomberg News.

你的下一個問題來自彭博新聞社的 Mary Schlangenstein。

I just wanted to see if I could get you to talk a little bit more about your comments about business bookings remaining steady. It seems like the 80% recovered level in the December quarter is what you had been saying previous to that. And I wanted to see if you've got any sort of an outlook beyond the March quarter that gives you confidence that, that corporate recovery is not going to stall at some level?

我只是想看看是否可以讓您多談談您對商務預訂保持穩定的評論。似乎 12 月季度 80% 的恢復水平就是你之前所說的。我想看看你是否對 3 月季度之後的前景有任何信心，即企業復甦不會在某種程度上停滯不前？

We do those corporate surveys, and that's why we do them to see what our corporate partners are thinking about in terms of future travel. And it was actually the last one we did, which is for future travel, was the best survey we've had since pre-pandemic in terms of their enthusiasm that more people would be flying in future months than we're flying in current or past months.

我們進行這些企業調查，這就是為什麼我們這樣做是為了了解我們的企業合作夥伴對未來旅行的看法。實際上，這是我們為未來旅行所做的最後一次調查，是自大流行前以來我們進行的最好的調查，調查的對像是他們的熱情，即未來幾個月乘坐飛機的人數將超過我們當前或現在乘坐飛機的人數。過去幾個月。

As I said in the call, we're not counting on that in our current revenue forecast because sometimes that doesn't come to fruition, but there's a sense of optimism from this pent-up demand for business travel that we see could potentially offset any weakness in the general economy. And we're taking a very cautious look, but -- and we're counting on it being stable and not growing dramatically. But it looks like people think it will grow.

正如我在電話會議中所說，我們在當前的收入預測中沒有指望這一點，因為有時這不會實現，但我們認為這種被壓抑的商務旅行需求可能會抵消這種樂觀情緒整體經濟的任何疲軟。我們正在非常謹慎地看待，但是 - 我們指望它穩定並且不會急劇增長。但看起來人們認為它會增長。

Mary, this is Ed. I -- you see in the -- in our country, a lot of businesses struggling to get their employees back into the office. And I think this is tied to that. As companies return and employees return to office, you're going to see another step up, in my opinion, of return to more normal trends, including improved business travel.

瑪麗，這是艾德。我——你看——在我們國家，很多企業都在努力讓他們的員工回到辦公室。我認為這與此有關。隨著公司回歸和員工重返辦公室，在我看來，你會看到又一個進步，回歸到更正常的趨勢，包括改善商務旅行。

You think of a lot of the big accounts we serve are consultancies, legal firms, accounting firms, it's tough for them to get out on the road if they don't have the offices open of their clients and their customers. So I think that's the -- a little bit of the choppiness that Glen was referring to because that companies are intending to open and have had some -- there's been some stalls going on there. But I do think as we progress over the course of the year, you're going to see more and more of business being done like it used to be done than ever before.

你會想到我們服務的許多大客戶是諮詢公司、律師事務所、會計師事務所，如果他們沒有為客戶和顧客開設辦公室，他們就很難走出去。所以我認為這就是 - 格倫所指的一點點動盪，因為公司打算開業並且已經有一些 - 那裡有一些攤位。但我確實認為，隨著我們在這一年中取得進展，你會看到越來越多的業務像過去一樣完成，比以往任何時候都多。

Okay. And if I can just follow up. I understand about your survey, but are there bookings that you can see at this point beyond the March quarter that gives you any idea of whether that weakness will continue?

好的。如果我能跟進的話。我了解您的調查，但您是否可以在 3 月季度之後看到此時的預訂，讓您了解這種疲軟是否會持續？

And then when you said you're counting on that corporate demand being stable, but not growing dramatically, that's a change, though, from what you had been seeing, is that correct? You had been seeing growth, but now you're seeing it more stable?

然後當你說你指望企業需求穩定，但不會急劇增長時，這是一個變化，但是，從你所看到的情況來看，這是正確的嗎？你一直看到增長，但現在你看到它更穩定？

Clearly, in the early parts of the pandemic recovery, we saw some accelerated growth. I think we've been pretty consistent at the past couple of quarters, saying we see some stability in the booking curve at about 80% of revenue.

顯然，在大流行病復甦的早期，我們看到了一些加速增長。我認為我們在過去幾個季度一直非常穩定，說我們看到預訂曲線穩定在收入的 80% 左右。

So as you know, business travel usually has the shortest advanced purchase windows and is mostly close in. So we would not have any further visibility beyond the next 60 to 90 days that would be of any significant help in charting that water.

因此，如您所知，商務旅行通常具有最短的高級購買窗口，而且大部分時間都在附近。因此，在接下來的 60 到 90 天之後，我們不會有任何進一步的可見性，這對繪製水圖沒有任何重大幫助。

Your next question is coming from Edward Russell from Skift.

你的下一個問題來自 Skift 的 Edward Russell。

I wonder if you could comment on if Delta [Soni] benefit from Southwest Airlines operational issues in December? Was there an uptick in bookings people buying less (inaudible)? Any color would be great.

我想知道你是否可以評論達美航空 [Soni] 是否從 12 月的西南航空公司運營問題中受益？人們購買較少（聽不清）的預訂量是否有所增加？任何顏色都會很棒。

Sure. As you know, we had our own weather operations during the peak Christmas holiday travel period. And we saw after that, when we were fully recovered and Southwest was still not back in full swing.

當然。如您所知，我們在聖誕節假期旅行高峰期有自己的天氣操作。之後我們看到，當我們完全康復時，西南航空仍未恢復如火如荼的狀態。

We had an uptick in our bookings. That's trended in highly competitive with Southwest markets a little bit into January, but we think that will resolve itself over the next 6 to 12 months.

我們的預訂量有所增加。進入 1 月份後，與西南市場的競爭激烈，但我們認為這將在未來 6 到 12 個月內自行解決。

Thank you, Edward. Matt, we have time for one final question, if we could, please.

謝謝你，愛德華。 Matt，如果可以的話，我們還有時間問最後一個問題。

Certainly. The last question is coming from Robert Silk from Travel Weekly.

當然。最後一個問題來自 Travel Weekly 的 Robert Silk。

When you talk about getting back to full pre-pandemic capacity in your major hubs, are you talking about seats or flight numbers? And then what percent of your gauge up, let's say, in Atlanta? What will it be up this summer? And how do you think about managing crowds as you increase gauge and bring your flight numbers back up to where they were or beyond?

當您談論在主要樞紐恢復大流行前的全部容量時，您是在談論座位還是航班號？然後，比方說，在亞特蘭大，你的衡量標準提高了多少？今年夏天會怎樣？當你增加儀表並將航班數量恢復到原來或更高的水平時，你如何考慮管理人群？

Right. We will probably not, for the next couple of years, see the flight numbers we did in 2019. And we will get seat capacity restoration to 100%, which means that gauge will go up significantly. When you look at our fleet evolution, that was always our plan was to continue to grow not by additional departures but by larger airplanes, more efficiency, less fuel burn, better products and services.

正確的。在接下來的幾年裡，我們可能不會看到我們在 2019 年所做的航班數量。我們將把座位容量恢復到 100%，這意味著儀表將顯著上升。當您查看我們的機隊發展時，我們的計劃始終是繼續增長，而不是通過增加起飛次數，而是通過更大的飛機、更高的效率、更少的燃油消耗、更好的產品和服務。

And so that's really what we're intending on doing. The pandemic accelerated that. And so you've got our average gauge up by double digits right now. That's partly because we keep taking larger airplanes but partly because the regional fleets are less restored. And we think that will normalize out over the next 18 months, but we will probably not, for the foreseeable future, get back to the flight levels, although we will match or exceed by the end of the year at the historic levels in terms of seat capacity.

所以這就是我們真正打算做的。大流行加速了這一點。因此，您現在已經將我們的平均指標提高了兩位數。這部分是因為我們一直在使用更大的飛機，但部分是因為地區機隊的恢復較少。我們認為這將在未來 18 個月內恢復正常，但在可預見的未來，我們可能不會回到飛行水平，儘管我們將在年底前達到或超過歷史水平座位容量。

Any -- with the higher gauge, do you end up with more crowded banks in terms of number of passengers? Or is that a swag by having less flights...

有沒有 - 儀表越高，就乘客數量而言，您最終會遇到更擁擠的銀行嗎？還是因為航班少了而招搖過市……

No, I think -- that's why we've done these generational builds across our network is that we knew that bigger gauge was coming, we needed to accommodate it. And even for example, here in Atlanta, we've worked closely with the city to reconfigure the deconcourse to be wider than any of the other concourses to accommodate that increased gauge.

不，我認為——這就是為什麼我們在我們的網絡中進行這些世代構建的原因是我們知道更大的規格即將到來，我們需要適應它。甚至例如，在亞特蘭大這裡，我們與市政府密切合作，重新配置廣場，使其比其他任何廣場都寬，以適應增加的軌距。

So we've got short-, medium- and long-term plans to accommodate those gauges. A lot of that was in our generational builds across the network, and we don't think that it's going to be more crowded than it was in '19 or feel more crowded.

因此，我們制定了適應這些指標的短期、中期和長期計劃。其中很多是在我們這一代網絡中構建的，我們認為它不會比 19 年更擁擠或感覺更擁擠。

Thank you, Robert. Matt, that will wrap our call for today. We're grateful for everyone's time and participation.

謝謝你，羅伯特。馬特，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝大家的時間和參與。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation today.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您今天的參與。