達美航空 (DAL) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Delta Air Lines September Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Cody, and I'll be your coordinator. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

大家早上好，歡迎參加達美航空公司 2022 年 9 月季度財務業績電話會議。我的名字是科迪，我將成為你的協調員。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，今天的通話正在錄音中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Julie Stewart, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Julie Stewart。請繼續。

Thank you, Cody. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for our September quarter 2022 earnings call. Joining us from Atlanta today are CEO, Ed Bastian; our President, Glen Hauenstein; our CFO, Dan Janki. Ed will open the call with an overview of Delta's performance and strategy. Glen will provide an update on the revenue environment, and Dan will discuss costs in our balance sheet. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，科迪。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的 2022 年 9 月季度財報電話會議。今天從亞特蘭大加入我們的是首席執行官 Ed Bastian；我們的總裁格倫·豪恩斯坦；我們的首席財務官 Dan Janki。 Ed 將在電話會議開始時概述 Delta 的業績和戰略。 Glen 將提供有關收入環境的最新信息，Dan 將在我們的資產負債表中討論成本。 （操作員說明）

Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that may cause such differences are described in Delta's SEC filings. We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and all results exclude special items unless otherwise noted. You can find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures on the Investor Relations page at ir.delta.com.

今天的討論包含代表我們對未來事件的信念或期望的前瞻性陳述。所有前瞻性陳述都涉及可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的風險和不確定性。 Delta 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述了一些可能導致此類差異的因素。我們還將討論非 GAAP 財務指標，除非另有說明，否則所有結果均不包括特殊項目。您可以在 ir.delta.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到我們的非公認會計原則措施的對賬。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Ed。

Well, thank you, Julie, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. Before we begin, I want to recognize all of those who have been impacted by Hurricanes Ian and Fiona, including Delta employees who live in the affected communities. We have contributed $600,000 to the Red Cross relief efforts and activated our Delta Care Fund to take care of our employees who have suffered loss. Delta will continue to support our people and our communities amid the recovery and rebuilding.

好吧，謝謝你，朱莉，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們。在開始之前，我想感謝所有受颶風伊恩和菲奧娜影響的人，包括居住在受影響社區的達美員工。我們為紅十字會的救援工作捐贈了 600,000 美元，並啟動了我們的 Delta Care Fund 來照顧我們遭受損失的員工。達美將繼續在復蘇和重建過程中支持我們的人民和我們的社區。

The demand for air travel remains very strong, and that is reflected in today's results and outlook. We generated earnings of $1.51 per share in the September quarter. Our results mark clear financial progress as we report the highest quarterly revenue in Delta's history, 3% above the third quarter of 2019 and $1.5 billion of operating income, generating a 12% margin. This was our second quarter -- consecutive quarter of double-digit operating margins. And importantly, we achieved these results despite record high fuel prices and on capacity only 83% restored relative to 2019.

對航空旅行的需求仍然非常強勁，這反映在今天的業績和展望中。我們在 9 月季度產生了每股 1.51 美元的收益。我們的業績標誌著明顯的財務進展，因為我們報告了達美歷史上最高的季度收入，比 2019 年第三季度高出 3%，營業收入為 15 億美元，利潤率為 12%。這是我們的第二個季度——營業利潤率連續一個季度保持在兩位數。重要的是，儘管燃油價格創歷史新高，而且相對於 2019 年，產能僅恢復了 83%，但我們還是取得了這些成果。

Our customer satisfaction scores are running meaningfully above 2019, and loyalty to Delta has never been stronger, with record SkyMiles acquisitions and American Express results ahead of our plan. I want to sincerely thank the Delta people for their great work in delivering these results and restoring our operational reliability through a very difficult summer. Delivering safe, reliable and on-time service for our customers remains our top priority, and no airline does this better than Delta.

我們的客戶滿意度得分顯著高於 2019 年，並且對達美航空的忠誠度從未如此強大，飛凡里程常客計劃的收購記錄和美國運通的業績超出了我們的計劃。我要衷心感謝 Delta 員工為實現這些成果所做的出色工作，並在一個非常艱難的夏天恢復了我們的運營可靠性。為我們的客戶提供安全、可靠和準時的服務仍然是我們的首要任務，沒有哪家航空公司能比達美做得更好。

We saw strong consistent improvement in our operating metrics throughout the quarter. For example, excluding the impact of Hurricane Ian, we ran a 99.9% domestic completion factor in September and month-to-date in October with 90% arrivals on time. To put that in context, out of 120,000 mainline flights over the last 45 days, we had just 108 cancellations in total, performance that is even better than our prepandemic levels. And year-to-date, Delta remains in the #1 industry position amongst our peer set in completion factor and on-time arrivals.

我們看到整個季度的運營指標持續強勁改善。例如，排除伊恩颶風的影響，我們在 9 月和 10 月的月內完成率達到 99.9%，準時到達率為 90%。綜上所述，在過去 45 天的 120,000 次幹線航班中，我們總共只有 108 次取消，這甚至比我們大流行前的水平還要好。年初至今，達美航空在完成率和準時到達率方面仍保持在同行中排名第一的行業地位。

After 2 years of delaying travel, it is clear that consumers are getting out and traveling the world. Business travel continues to recover in line with our expectations as bookings have improved after Labor Day and companies reconnect with their teams and their customers. And while consumer spend on experiences is growing, the airline industry revenues are still $20 billion to $30 billion below the historical trend against GDP, highlighting the significant opportunity still ahead.

在推遲了 2 年的旅行之後，很明顯消費者正在走出去環遊世界。隨著勞動節後預訂量有所改善，企業與團隊和客戶重新建立聯繫，商務旅行繼續恢復符合我們的預期。儘管消費者在體驗上的支出正在增長，但航空業收入仍比 GDP 的歷史趨勢低 200 億至 300 億美元，這凸顯了未來仍存在重大機遇。

We expect our December quarter revenues to maintain this momentum, and we will be 5% to 9% higher than 2019. With strong demand, we expect earnings per share of $1 to $1.25 and a 9% to 11% operating margin.

我們預計 12 月季度的收入將保持這一勢頭，我們將比 2019 年高 5% 至 9%。由於需求強勁，我們預計每股收益為 1 至 1.25 美元，營業利潤率為 9% 至 11%。

While we face numerous challenges and headwinds this year, Delta has demonstrated its resilience. We're ahead of our plan that we laid out for you last December on profitability and cash flow, and we expect to be free cash flow positive in 2022 this year.

儘管今年我們面臨眾多挑戰和逆風，但達美航空已經展示了它的韌性。我們領先於去年 12 月為您制定的盈利能力和現金流計劃，我們預計今年 2022 年的自由現金流為正。

Our priority over the next 6 months is to prepare for full network restoration by next summer, consistent with our original plan, but always conditioned on a continuing demand strength. This will support another meaningful step-up in profitability and cash flow next year as we stay on our path to earn over $7 of EPS and $4 billion of free cash in 2024. We'll provide more details on our outlook for 2023 and progress towards our long-term targets at an investor meeting that we will host December 14 in New York.

我們未來 6 個月的首要任務是為明年夏天之前的全面網絡恢復做準備，這與我們最初的計劃一致，但始終以持續的需求強度為條件。這將支持明年盈利能力和現金流的另一個有意義的提升，因為我們將繼續在 2024 年賺取超過 7 美元的每股收益和 40 億美元的自由現金。我們將提供更多關於 2023 年展望和進展的細節我們將於 12 月 14 日在紐約舉行的投資者會議上製定長期目標。

As we think about our long-term plan, we had some really important achievements this quarter. Building on Delta's global network and partnerships, we strengthened our network with the recent DOT approval of our joint venture with LATAM. Together with LATAM, our JV will have the #1 market position in South America.

當我們考慮我們的長期計劃時，我們在本季度取得了一些非常重要的成就。基於達美的全球網絡和合作夥伴關係，我們通過最近 DOT 批准我們與 LATAM 的合資企業加強了我們的網絡。與 LATAM 一起，我們的合資企業將在南美佔據第一的市場地位。

To support our best-in-class network, we continue to reshape our fleet and recently placed an order for 100 Boeing 737-10 aircraft. We're also expanding the power of our loyalty ecosystem with the recently announced Starbucks partnership, bringing 2 premier brands together. And this week, we announced a strategic partnership with an investment in Joby Aviation, aligning the industry's best airline with the innovation leader in developing eVTOL. Joby shares our vision of providing customers a premium experience. We're excited to help support Joby's long-term vision of faster, more reliable and more sustainable transit to the airport.

為了支持我們一流的網絡，我們繼續重塑我們的機隊，最近訂購了 100 架波音 737-10 飛機。我們還通過最近宣布的星巴克合作夥伴關係來擴大我們忠誠度生態系統的力量，將 2 個頂級品牌聚集在一起。本週，我們宣布與 Joby Aviation 建立戰略合作夥伴關係，讓業內最佳航空公司與開發 eVTOL 的創新領導者保持一致。 Joby 分享了我們為客戶提供優質體驗的願景。我們很高興能夠幫助支持 Joby 的長期願景，即更快、更可靠、更可持續地前往機場。

In closing, while we are mindful of macroeconomic headwinds, the travel industry is experiencing a countercyclical recovery. Global demand is continuing to ramp as consumers shift spend to experiences, businesses return to travel and international markets continue to reopen. Demand has not come close to being quenched by a hectic summer travel season. At the same time, industry supply is constrained by aircraft availability, regional pilot shortages, and hiring and training needs. With record high fuel prices and increasing cost of capital, the hurdle rate is rising for incremental capacity across an industry that's still restoring its financial condition post pandemic.

最後，雖然我們注意到宏觀經濟逆風，但旅遊業正在經歷逆週期復蘇。隨著消費者將支出轉向體驗，企業重返旅行以及國際市場繼續重新開放，全球需求繼續增長。繁忙的夏季旅遊旺季並未使需求趨於熄滅。與此同時，行業供應受到飛機可用性、地區飛行員短缺以及招聘和培訓需求的限制。隨著創紀錄的高燃料價格和不斷增加的資本成本，整個行業增加產能的門檻率正在上升，而這個行業在大流行後仍在恢復其財務狀況。

Against this backdrop and coupled with meaningfully improved asset utilization, at Delta, we are uniquely positioned to grow our earnings and cash flow in 2023. At the same time, we will remain nimble and have the tools to manage through any changes in the overall environment.

在這種背景下，再加上資產利用率的顯著提高，在 Delta，我們處於獨特的位置，可以在 2023 年增加我們的收益和現金流。同時，我們將保持靈活並擁有應對整體環境變化的工具.

Over the last decade, Delta has structurally improved in significant ways, creating a trusted consumer brand built on a foundation as the most reliable airline globally driven by the very best professionals in the industry. And I truly believe that we are positioned to come through this period as a stronger airline than ever before.

在過去的十年中，達美航空在結構上取得了顯著改善，打造了一個值得信賴的消費者品牌，其基礎是作為全球最可靠的航空公司，由業內最優秀的專業人士推動。我真的相信，我們有能力度過這一時期，成為一家比以往任何時候都更強大的航空公司。

With that, let me hand it over to Glen, who can provide more details on our commercial performance.

有了這個，讓我把它交給格倫，他可以提供更多關於我們商業表現的細節。

Thank you, Ed, and good morning, everyone. I want to first thank our employees for their hard work restoring our operations and delivering for our customers during a very busy summer travel season.

謝謝你，Ed，大家早上好。首先，我要感謝我們的員工在非常繁忙的夏季旅行季節為恢復我們的運營和為我們的客戶提供服務所做的辛勤工作。

Demand for travel on Delta remains strong. Investments in our products, airport service and the liability are reshaping customer perceptions and driving record satisfaction scores. [Brand affinity] supports our revenue premium to the industry, and we're making meaningful progress against our multiyear commercial strategy. September quarter results reflect momentum in premium products and loyalty, supporting continued diversification of our revenues.

達美航空的旅行需求依然強勁。對我們的產品、機場服務和責任的投資正在重塑客戶的認知並推動創紀錄的滿意度得分。 [品牌親和力] 支持我們對行業的收入溢價，並且我們正在根據我們的多年商業戰略取得有意義的進展。 9 月季度業績反映了優質產品和忠誠度的勢頭，支持我們收入的持續多元化。

This quarter, a record 54% of our total revenue was generated by premium products and diverse revenue streams. We expect this to grow to 60% by 2024. September quarter revenues of $12.8 billion is a new quarterly record and 3% higher than 2019 on 17% less capacity. Hurricane Ian impacted revenues by approximately $70 million, with the impact evenly split between the third and fourth quarters.

本季度，我們創紀錄的 54% 的總收入來自優質產品和多樣化的收入來源。我們預計到 2024 年這一比例將增長到 60%。9 月份季度收入為 128 億美元，創下季度新紀錄，比 2019 年增長 3%，而產能減少 17%。颶風伊恩對收入的影響約為 7000 萬美元，影響在第三季度和第四季度平均分配。

Total unit revenues finished 23.4% higher versus 2019, improving 3 points sequentially as international demand accelerated. Demand was strong throughout the quarter, with premium revenue growth outpacing main cabin by 10 points. Delta Premium Select is performing well ahead of our expectations as we expand the offering to more of our international network every day.

隨著國際需求加速，總單位收入較 2019 年增長 23.4%，環比增長 3 個百分點。整個季度的需求強勁，保費收入增長超過主艙 10 個百分點。隨著我們每天將服務擴展到更多的國際網絡，達美 Premium Select 的表現遠遠超出了我們的預期。

We see continued runway ahead with the return of business travel, complementing strength in premium leisure. Our growing loyalty base drives high-margin revenue and supports continued growth in our valuable co-brand relationship with American Express.

我們看到隨著商務旅行的回歸，繼續保持領先，補充了高端休閒的實力。我們不斷增長的忠誠度基礎推動了高利潤收入，並支持我們與美國運通的寶貴聯合品牌關係的持續增長。

SkyMiles acquisitions are running 40% above 2019 with over 60% of our passenger revenues now generated by SkyMiles members. In the third quarter, record spend and strong acquisitions on our Amex co-brand cards resulted in $1.4 billion of Amex remuneration. This was 37% higher than 2019, and we now expect 2022 remuneration of $5.5 billion, further reinforcing our confidence in achieving our $7 billion target in 2024.

“飛凡里程常客計劃”的收購比 2019 年增長了 40%，我們現在 60% 以上的乘客收入來自“飛凡里程常客計劃”會員。第三季度，我們在美國運通聯名卡上的創紀錄支出和強勁收購為美國運通帶來了 14 億美元的薪酬。這比 2019 年高出 37%，我們現在預計 2022 年的薪酬為 55 億美元，進一步增強了我們在 2024 年實現 70 億美元目標的信心。

Other revenue streams continue to perform well, with cargo revenue up 27% and MRO revenues up 4% versus '19. Business travel continues to improve. We expect corporate sales recovery in the December quarter in the low to mid-80s at a system level. Importantly, less recovered sectors like banking, consulting and consumer services have all seen double-digit growth post Labor Day, helping bring New York largely in line with domestic system.

其他收入來源繼續表現良好，與 19 年相比，貨運收入增長 27%，MRO 收入增長 4%。商務旅行繼續改善。我們預計 12 月季度的企業銷售在系統層面將在 80 年代中期至 80 年代中期復蘇。重要的是，銀行、諮詢和消費服務等複蘇較慢的行業在勞動節後都出現了兩位數的增長，幫助紐約在很大程度上與國內體系保持一致。

We have growing confidence that while there will be changes, corporate travel will fully recover and increased workplace flexibility is creating new travel patterns.

我們越來越相信，雖然會有變化，但商務旅行將完全恢復，工作場所靈活性的提高正在創造新的旅行模式。

Our recent corporate survey validates our perspective with nearly 90% of accounts expecting near travel to stay the same or increase as we move into the fourth quarter. That optimism is also reflected in GBTA's recent travel survey where 80% of respondents expect travel volumes to increase in 2023 compared to '22.

我們最近的企業調查證實了我們的觀點，近 90% 的客戶預計隨著我們進入第四季度，近距離旅行將保持不變或增加。這種樂觀情緒也反映在 GBTA 最近的旅行調查中，80% 的受訪者預計 2023 年的旅行量將比 22 年增加。

On the consumer side, domestic revenue remains well ahead of 2019, with international consumer revenue now fully restored. International is being led by the transatlantic where revenue was 12% higher than 2019 on 89% capacity restoration. Pacific was the most improved entity in the quarter and generated the highest unit revenue growth. We are encouraged by how the Pacific recovery is progressing, led by strong demand in our hub in Korea and to Australia. And we expect continued improvement as Japan reopens.

在消費方面，國內收入仍遠高於 2019 年，國際消費收入現已全面恢復。國際領先的是跨大西洋地區，其收入比 2019 年高出 12%，產能恢復率為 89%。太平洋是本季度改善最大的實體，並產生了最高的單位收入增長。在我們位於韓國和澳大利亞的樞紐的強勁需求帶動下，太平洋地區的複蘇正在取得進展，我們對此感到鼓舞。隨著日本重新開放，我們預計會繼續改善。

Turning to the December quarter. Bookings for travel and spending on our co-brand cards continue to show healthy trends. We expect our revenue compared to 2019 will continue to improve in fourth quarter, up 5% to 9% on 8% to 9% less capacity.

轉到 12 月季度。我們聯名卡的旅行預訂和消費繼續呈現健康趨勢。我們預計，與 2019 年相比，第四季度我們的收入將繼續改善，在產能減少 8% 至 9% 的情況下增長 5% 至 9%。

Demand for transatlantic travel is extending well into the fall. Starting in October, we anticipate flying more transatlantic capacity than 2019, making it the first geography to exceed 2019 capacity levels. And while European currencies are down versus the dollar, foreign yields are more than offsetting the foreign exchange impact, and U.S. demand is driving higher U.S. point of sale than 2019.

跨大西洋旅行的需求一直延續到秋季。從 10 月開始，我們預計跨大西洋的運力將超過 2019 年，使其成為第一個超過 2019 年運力水平的地區。儘管歐洲貨幣兌美元匯率下跌，但外匯收益率遠遠抵消了外匯影響，美國需求推動美國銷售點高於 2019 年。

October and November revenue is trending well. The December month will be impacted by an elongated period between the holidays and more return travel than usual pushed into January. Demand for the entire holiday period, however, is very robust.

10 月和 11 月的收入趨勢良好。 12 月份將受到假期之間拉長的影響，以及比往常推遲到 1 月份的更多回程旅行。然而，整個假期期間的需求非常強勁。

Fourth quarter unit revenues are expected to be up mid-teens versus 2019 as we continue to restore international capacity and increase domestic stage length.

隨著我們繼續恢復國際產能並增加國內舞台長度，第四季度的單位收入預計將比 2019 年增長 10 倍左右。

During the pandemic and through 2022, we set out a goal to improve our share in coastal gateways to become the leading global carrier in these important revenue centers, and I am proud of the team for successfully achieving this goal.

在大流行期間和到 2022 年，我們設定了一個目標，即提高我們在沿海門戶的份額，成為這些重要收入中心的全球領先航空公司，我為團隊成功實現這一目標感到自豪。

Looking to 2023, we are shifting our focus to our core hubs, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Detroit and Salt Lake City, with approximately 75% of domestic seat growth dedicated to full restoration of our higher-margin core hubs.

展望 2023 年，我們將把重點轉移到我們的核心樞紐亞特蘭大、明尼阿波利斯、底特律和鹽湖城，大約 75% 的國內座位增長將用於全面恢復我們利潤率更高的核心樞紐。

As our plan progresses, Delta will continue to prioritize our people and our customers, and extend our competitive advantages. In closing, we're coming into the final quarter of the year with a healthy demand backdrop, running the most reliable operation and exceeding our key commercial goals.

隨著我們計劃的推進，達美將繼續優先考慮我們的員工和客戶，並擴大我們的競爭優勢。最後，我們正以健康的需求背景進入今年最後一個季度，運行最可靠的運營並超過我們的主要商業目標。

And with that, I'd like to turn it over to Dan to talk about the financials.

有了這個，我想把它交給丹來談談財務。

Thank you, Glen, and good morning to everyone. The September quarter demonstrated progress on our financial priorities to drive margin improvement and reduce debt. We reported a $1.5 billion operating profit, and that's on a margin of 11.6%, our second consecutive quarter with a double-digit operating margin. That is on a network that's 17% smaller than 2019.

謝謝你，格倫，大家早上好。 9 月季度顯示我們在推動利潤率提高和減少債務方面的財務優先事項取得了進展。我們報告了 15 億美元的營業利潤，利潤率為 11.6%，這是我們連續第二個季度實現兩位數的營業利潤率。那是在一個比 2019 年小 17% 的網絡上。

Our non-unit fuel costs were 22.5% higher, in line with guidance, excluding the impact of the hurricane on capacity. The refinery generated profit of $192 million partially offsetting the impact of volatile crack spreads. Gross CapEx spend was $1.5 billion as we took delivery of 11 aircraft, including 5 A321neos, which are generating margins approximately 10 points higher than the aircraft they're replacing.

我們的非單位燃料成本高出 22.5%，符合指引，不包括颶風對產能的影響。該煉油廠產生的利潤為 1.92 億美元，部分抵消了裂解價差波動的影響。總資本支出為 15 億美元，因為我們接收了 11 架飛機，其中包括 5 架 A321neo，這些飛機的利潤率比他們正在更換的飛機高出約 10 個百分點。

CapEx was lower than our guidance, with fewer delivery -- with a few delivery delays, and we now expect CapEx spend of $5.7 billion for the full year. We ended the quarter with $20.5 billion of adjusted net debt. We repaid $1.8 billion of debt during the quarter as we continue to manage down our maturities over the next several years. This brings our debt repayment to over $4 billion year-to-date, reducing our run rate interest expense and reflecting our continued focus on returning to investment-grade metrics by 2024.

資本支出低於我們的指導，交付較少 - 有一些交付延遲，我們現在預計全年資本支出為 57 億美元。我們以 205 億美元的調整後淨債務結束了本季度。我們在本季度償還了 18 億美元的債務，因為我們將在未來幾年繼續降低到期日。這使我們今年迄今的債務償還額超過了 40 億美元，降低了我們的運行利率支出，並反映了我們對到 2024 年恢復投資級指標的持續關注。

For the December quarter, we expect earnings to be between $1 and $1.25 per share and an operating margin of 9% to 11%. Fuel prices remain volatile. With the most recent move up last week, we expect fourth quarter adjusted fuel price per gallon between $3.35 and $3.55. This includes $105 million contribution from the refinery equating to a $0.23 per gallon benefit. We expect the December quarter unit cost to be 12% to 13% higher than 2019. This is a 10-point improvement sequentially and shows clear progress as capacity restoration increases from the low 80% to low 90%.

對於 12 月季度，我們預計每股收益在 1 美元至 1.25 美元之間，營業利潤率為 9% 至 11%。燃料價格仍然波動。隨著上週最近一次上漲，我們預計第四季度調整後的每加侖燃油價格在 3.35 美元至 3.55 美元之間。這包括煉油廠 1.05 億美元的貢獻，相當於每加侖 0.23 美元的收益。我們預計 12 月季度的單位成本將比 2019 年高出 12% 至 13%。這比 2019 年提高了 10 個百分點，並且隨著產能恢復從 80% 的低位增加到 90% 的低位，顯示出明顯的進展。

It's taken significant resources to rebuild the airline with industry-leading reliability. We are nearing the final stages with the workforce now in line with 2019. From here, we expect further benefit from scale as we reach full network restoration and better utilization of our fleet, our hubs and our workforce.

重建具有行業領先可靠性的航空公司需要大量資源。我們正接近最後階段，勞動力現在與 2019 年保持一致。從這裡開始，隨著我們實現全面的網絡恢復和更好地利用我們的機隊、我們的樞紐和我們的勞動力，我們預計將從規模中進一步受益。

The incremental cost to restore additional capacity is low as the resources are already in place, reducing unit costs. As Glen noted, much of our growth next year will be in our lowest cost core hubs through increased mainline aircraft utilization. Approximately 75% of our domestic seat growth in 2023 will be in our core hubs, including 45% from Atlanta alone. Further, between inefficiencies and rebuild expenses, we are carrying over $1 billion of excess costs in 2022.

由於資源已經到位，因此恢復額外容量的增量成本很低，從而降低了單位成本。正如格倫所指出的，我們明年的大部分增長將通過增加干線飛機的利用率在我們成本最低的核心樞紐中實現。到 2023 年，我們大約 75% 的國內座位增長將來自我們的核心樞紐，其中僅亞特蘭大就有 45%。此外，在效率低下和重建費用之間，我們將在 2022 年承擔超過 10 億美元的超額成本。

With the teams in place and the operations running reliable, we are seeing early improvements in efficiency. October metrics are pacing ahead of September, and we expect to return to historic levels as elevated training and the network normalize next summer.

隨著團隊的到位和運營的可靠運行，我們看到了效率的早期提高。 10 月份的指標比 9 月份提前，我們預計隨著明年夏天培訓的提高和網絡的正常化，將恢復到歷史水平。

Achieving scale while restoring efficiency are Delta's largest CASM levers. These are within our control based on the pace of restoration and running an operation in line with Delta's standard of excellence. We know managing cost down is the best protection from economic uncertainty, and it is a company-wide priority. We are making progress restoring our financial foundation with significant profitability and positive cash flow this year.

在恢復效率的同時實現規模是台達最大的 CASM 槓桿。這些都在我們的控制範圍內，基於恢復的速度和符合 Delta 卓越標準的運營。我們知道管理成本是抵禦經濟不確定性的最佳保護，也是全公司的優先事項。今年，我們正在以顯著的盈利能力和正現金流恢復我們的財務基礎。

As we fully restore our network and unit costs improve, we expect another step-up in earnings next year, resulting in meaningful cash flow to further reduce our debt on path to our long-term targets. We are confident in delivering a competitive cost structure and our 2024 mid-teen margin target.

隨著我們完全恢復我們的網絡和單位成本的改善，我們預計明年的收益將再次增加，從而產生有意義的現金流，以進一步減少我們在實現長期目標的道路上的債務。我們有信心提供具有競爭力的成本結構和我們的 2024 年中期利潤目標。

In closing, I want to recognize the Delta entire global team for the operational improvements they delivered over the past few months. We are on track for meaningful and well-deserved employee profit-sharing payments, and I look forward to celebrating with our employees in February.

最後，我要感謝 Delta 整個全球團隊在過去幾個月中所做的運營改進。我們正朝著有意義和當之無愧的員工利潤分享付款的方向前進，我期待在 2 月份與我們的員工一起慶祝。

Now with that, I'll turn it back to Julie for Q&A.

現在，我將把它轉回給朱莉進行問答。

Cody, can you please remind the analysts how to queue up for questions?

Cody，你能提醒一下分析師如何排隊提問嗎？

(Operator Instructions) We'll now take our first from Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

（操作員說明）我們現在將從 Conor Cunningham 和 Melius Research 獲得我們的第一個。

You touched on it a little bit in the prepared remarks, but the opportunity (inaudible).

您在準備好的評論中稍微提到了它，但是機會（聽不清）。

Conor, you're cutting out. Conor, you're cutting out. Can you please repeat your question?

康納，你斷線了。康納，你斷線了。你能重複你的問題嗎？

Is that better?

那個更好嗎？

Try again.

再試一次。

Is that better?

那個更好嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Cool. You touched about the opportunity in Atlanta and the other core markets in 2023, and I think that's a really powerful trend for you guys. And I was just wondering if you could unpack it a little bit more, just -- I think you're really (inaudible) flow traffic. And you kind of -- your priority (inaudible) market or other markets (inaudible) recovery. So could you just talk about the margin profile of flow traffic in general and just how you expect that to trend into next year?

好的。涼爽的。你談到了 2023 年亞特蘭大和其他核心市場的機會，我認為這對你們來說是一個非常強大的趨勢。我只是想知道您是否可以將其拆開更多一點，只是-我認為您確實是（聽不清）流量。你有點——你的優先（聽不清）市場或其他市場（聽不清）復甦。那麼，您能否談談總體流量的利潤率概況，以及您預計明年的趨勢如何？

Right. Well, we set really 2 priorities during the pandemic that we wanted to come through that we thought would be important for the long-term strength of the franchise, and one was to improve our competitive positions in the coastal gateways. And we've certainly completed that as we exited the pandemic and get into a more normalized demand sets. So if you look at places like Los Angeles where we've now taken the #1 position or Boston in terms of revenue, same in Boston, and we've strengthened our position in key markets like Seattle. So that was very important for us.

正確的。好吧，在大流行期間，我們確實設定了兩個我們希望通過的優先事項，我們認為這對特許經營的長期實力很重要，一個是提高我們在沿海門戶的競爭地位。隨著我們擺脫大流行並進入更加正常化的需求集，我們當然已經完成了這一點。因此，如果你看看像洛杉磯這樣的地方，我們現在在收入方面排名第一，或者波士頓，波士頓也是如此，我們已經加強了我們在西雅圖等主要市場的地位。所以這對我們來說非常重要。

The other thing to do was to not lose share in our core, and that was really the very tricky part. So we went in with a share in our core hubs of about 58% to 59% when you added them all up. And our goal is to exit at 60% or above, and we did that as well. So if you think about our core being approximately 20 points less restored than the coastal gateways, which are now fully restored or actually growing, maintain your core hub share or actually increase it. There was a lot of focus on that through the revenue management systems.

另一件事是不要失去我們核心的份額，這確實是非常棘手的部分。因此，當您將它們全部加起來時，我們在核心樞紐中的份額約為 58% 到 59%。我們的目標是退出 60% 或以上，我們也這樣做了。因此，如果您認為我們的核心比現在已完全恢復或實際增長的沿海門戶少約 20 個點，請保持您的核心樞紐份額或實際增加它。通過收入管理系統，對此有很多關注。

So we choked off what I would say is more of our traditional flow in very key markets where Delta has historically been the leading carrier, particularly in the Southeast. And so as we head into -- and these customers or our customers are in our loyalty program. But in a lot of cases, they couldn't get fares that were competitive on Delta because we didn't have the seats to produce those.

因此，我們扼殺了我想說的更多我們在達美歷來是主要承運人的關鍵市場的傳統流量，特別是在東南部。因此，當我們進入 - 這些客戶或我們的客戶在我們的忠誠度計劃中。但在很多情況下，他們無法在達美獲得具有競爭力的票價，因為我們沒有座位來生產這些票價。

And really, as we head into 2023, our task that we've assigned our team is to get those historical high-yield flow customers back on Delta. And that's really our -- what our rebuild phase for 2023 is all about.

真的，隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們分配給團隊的任務是讓那些歷史上的高收益流量客戶重新回到達美航空。這真的是我們的——我們 2023 年的重建階段的全部內容。

We'll take our next question from Savi Syth with Raymond James.

我們將與 Raymond James 一起回答 Savi Syth 的下一個問題。

I was (inaudible) to achieve those kind of goals that you just talked about on the pilot side, could you detail a little bit more about what you're seeing in terms of training bottlenecks and pilot staffing on the mainline side as well as maybe attrition and staffing levels on the regional side?

我（聽不清）是為了實現你剛才在飛行員方面談到的那些目標，你能否詳細說明一下你在主線方面的培訓瓶頸和飛行員人員配備方面所看到的情況以及可能區域方面的人員流失和人員配置水平？

I could take it, Savi. We continue to make good progress in clearing those bottlenecks and getting our pilots into seats and categories every week. We're producing more and more pilots back to the operation. As we said in our remarks, our goal is to be in a position to have our network fully restored by the summer, and the pilots are obviously a big part of that.

我可以接受，薩維。我們繼續在清除這些瓶頸並讓我們的飛行員每週進入座位和類別方面取得良好進展。我們正在生產越來越多的飛行員返回運營。正如我們在講話中所說，我們的目標是能夠在夏季之前完全恢復我們的網絡，而飛行員顯然是其中的重要組成部分。

But can you provide a little bit more color on the regional side given that's a little more unique as to what's happening there and not just about training throughput? Is some of the kind of the changes that you're seeing in the industry in terms of pilot rates and things like that, is that having an impact? What's Delta doing to make sure you're rebuilding those -- that capacity?

但是，鑑於那裡正在發生的事情更加獨特，而不僅僅是培訓吞吐量，您能否在區域方面提供更多顏色？您在行業中看到的試點率等方面的一些變化是否會產生影響？達美航空正在做什麼來確保您正在重建這些——能力？

Right. Well, clearly, the labor rates at the regional carriers have moved during the pandemic, and they're at significantly higher rates than they were prepandemic. I think long-term conventional wisdom is that will mean that the regional fleet in the long run are smaller. In the short run, we're wanting to get to a stabilization of demand for pilots, and we think that will occur sometime in '23. These new higher rates should keep more people in place. And so -- but we don't think it will be fully restored until probably '24, '25 at the earliest. And we're uniquely positioned there because we have the, of course, A220s, which we're delivering every month or so. And we've reactivated the 717s, which were actually not in our original plan for reactivation, but we've leaned on them pretty heavily to rebuild more quickly. And we think it's a better product. And now with the new labor rates, it's at lower unit cost as well as -- yes, much lower unit cost than prepandemic.

正確的。好吧，很明顯，在大流行期間，地區航空公司的勞動力價格發生了變化，而且比大流行前的水平要高得多。我認為長期的傳統觀點是，從長遠來看，這將意味著支線艦隊規模較小。在短期內，我們希望穩定對飛行員的需求，我們認為這將在 23 年的某個時候發生。這些新的更高的利率應該讓更多的人留在原地。所以 - 但我們認為它最早可能要到 24 年、25 年才能完全恢復。我們在那裡的獨特定位是因為我們當然擁有 A220，我們每個月左右都會交付。我們已經重新啟用了 717，這實際上不在我們最初的重新啟用計劃中，但我們非常依賴它們來更快地重建。我們認為這是一個更好的產品。現在有了新的勞動力價格，它的單位成本更低，而且——是的，單位成本比大流行前低得多。

So I think we're uniquely positioned there with really the only major carrier that has these plethora of 100-seat airplanes. And we'll see what happens with the regionals in '23, but we think we're near the bottom in terms of pilot availability there.

所以我認為我們在這方面的地位是獨一無二的，是唯一一家擁有如此多的 100 座飛機的主要航空公司。我們將看到 23 年區域性會發生什麼，但我們認為就那裡的試點可用性而言，我們接近底部。

And one other thing I'd add is that we have the lowest regional jet footprint in the industry. We've been on a path, Savi, over the last decade to eliminate the 50-seat regional jet, and we're just about there. So we are out of that category. We do have 325 2-class regional jets, which we will continue to maintain going forward, but we are far less exposed than others to the -- some of this regional pilot shortage issue.

我要補充的另一件事是，我們擁有業內最低的支線飛機足跡。薩維，在過去的十年裡，我們一直在消除 50 座支線噴氣式飛機的道路上，而我們就快到了。所以我們不屬於那個類別。我們確實有 325 架 2 級支線噴氣式飛機，我們將繼續維持下去，但我們比其他人更容易受到這種地區飛行員短缺問題的影響。

We'll now move on to our next question from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們現在將繼續討論 Brandon Oglenski 與巴克萊的下一個問題。

Glen, I'm sure you've gotten this from a lot of investors. But obviously, folks are worried about a looming recession in the U.S. just driven by rates and inflation. And we're reminded of that again today. But obviously, your revenue guidance is pretty positive, but I do think it's a sequential decline in your yields. Can you talk to the components there? Because I know your long-haul flying is coming up as well. Just if you're seeing any weakness or softness across your geographies?

格倫，我相信你已經從很多投資者那裡得到了這個。但顯然，人們擔心美國即將出現的經濟衰退只是由利率和通脹驅動。我們今天再次想起了這一點。但顯然，您的收入指導非常積極，但我確實認為這是您的收益率連續下降。你能和那裡的組件談談嗎？因為我知道你的長途飛行也即將到來。只是如果你在你的地區看到任何弱點或軟弱？

Yes. I think that's a great question, and I'm happy to explain it. Really, it's 3 main factors. One is international restoration continuing in 4Q as we -- as Pacific continues to open up, and we continue to increase our capacity in the Pacific that has downward pressure on RASM. Domestic stage is going up dramatically and at a different rate than some of our competitors and all of our competitors as we head into 4Q. That's really being driven by a lot of additional flying into Hawaii from the East Coast hubs that we didn't have prepandemic. And lastly, it's that period and the shift of the holiday return in December where December will be below trend, and January will be above trend. So those are the 3 main factors that are driving the sequential decline. And we're not seeing -- taking those out, we're not really seeing a decline at the market level. It's actually continuing to be quite strong, and we don't just see any impact yet.

是的。我認為這是一個很好的問題，我很樂意解釋它。真的，這是3個主要因素。一個是國際恢復在第四季度繼續，因為我們 - 隨著太平洋繼續開放，我們繼續增加我們在太平洋的產能，這對 RASM 有下行壓力。隨著我們進入第四季度，國內舞台正在以與我們的一些競爭對手和所有競爭對手不同的速度急劇上升。這實際上是由我們沒有大流行前的東海岸樞紐飛往夏威夷的大量額外航班推動的。最後，正是那個時期和 12 月假期回歸的轉變，其中 12 月將低於趨勢，而 1 月將高於趨勢。因此，這些是推動連續下降的三個主要因素。而且我們沒有看到 - 剔除這些，我們並沒有真正看到市場水平的下降。它實際上仍然非常強大，我們還沒有看到任何影響。

We're looking -- of course, vigilant of looking for it, and we'll make adjustments as necessary if it does. But I think Ed was very clear earlier that we think that we have -- as an industry, very off trend in terms of our percent of GDP. And just getting back to that represents a huge upside to the industry.

我們正在尋找——當然，警惕尋找它，如果需要，我們會做出調整。但我認為 Ed 早些時候非常清楚，我們認為我們有 - 作為一個行業，就我們佔 GDP 的百分比而言，我們的趨勢非常偏離趨勢。回到這一點就代表了該行業的巨大優勢。

And I guess related to that, can you talk about business travel recovery in the quarter and what you're seeing right now in the fourth quarter?

我想與此相關，您能否談談本季度的商務旅行複蘇以及您現在在第四季度看到的情況？

Yes. I think we outlined at earlier conferences that we've seen about a 10-point improvement between 3Q and 4Q, and we see that continuing through 4Q. So we're now in the low to mid-80s in terms of revenue, with traffic being about 10 points below that. And that's what we see as we head into the end of the year.

是的。我認為我們在之前的會議上概述了我們已經看到 3Q 和 4Q 之間的 10 點改進，並且我們看到這種情況持續到 4Q。因此，就收入而言，我們現在處於 80 年代中期，流量比這低 10 個百分點。這就是我們在進入年底時所看到的。

We'll now take our next question from Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

我們現在將向德意志銀行的 Michael Linenberg 提出下一個問題。

Ed, I want to go back to the comment that you made in your opening comments. You said something about $20 billion to $30 billion on the table relative to GDP. Can you shed some light on that? And are you assuming that we get back to that historical relationship? Or are you building in some cushion there? If you could elaborate?

Ed，我想回到你在開場評論中所做的評論。你說的相對於 GDP 大約 200 億到 300 億美元。你能對此有所了解嗎？你是否假設我們回到了那種歷史關係？或者你正在那裡建一些墊子？如果你能詳細說明？

Sure, Mike. That's an industry number, as you can appreciate. And that gets you closer to the historical relationship. We've seen over many, many years, it's a very sticky relationship. We saw it fall a bit after 9/11, and we saw it bounce back. We saw it fall during the recession. We've seen it bounce back. And we certainly saw it the biggest fall ever coming back from the pandemic. So one of the things that we're seeing is such outsized demand for our product across the board. And when you couple that as well with the industry constraints that we also talked about, that is also keeping the pricing strong at the same time. So whether we get back to the full $20 billion or $30 billion, I don't know, but I think we're gaining on it as we go.

當然，邁克。如您所知，這是一個行業數字。這讓你更接近歷史關係。我們已經看到很多很多年了，這是一種非常粘的關係。我們看到它在 9/11 之後下跌了一點，我們看到它反彈了。我們看到它在經濟衰退期間下跌。我們已經看到它反彈了。我們當然看到這是從大流行中恢復過來的最大跌幅。因此，我們看到的一件事是對我們產品的全面需求如此之大。當您將其與我們也談到的行業限制結合起來時，這也同時保持了定價的強勁。因此，無論我們回到全部的 200 億美元還是 300 億美元，我不知道，但我認為我們正在不斷努力。

Okay. Great. And then just a quick one to Glen on the percentage of your total revenue that ties to a premium and diverse revenue streams. I think we're at 54% now, but the goal is to get to 60% by 2024. That seems somewhat conservative, but maybe you're envisioning just a much bigger pie as other segments recover like Asia Pacific, and that's probably why it's taking that much longer. Am I thinking about that correctly? Or is there something else going into that?

好的。偉大的。然後快速向 Glen 提供與優質和多樣化收入流相關的總收入百分比。我認為我們現在是 54%，但我們的目標是到 2024 年達到 60%。這似乎有點保守，但也許你正在設想一個更大的餡餅，因為其他細分市場如亞太地區正在復蘇，這可能就是為什麼它需要更長的時間。我是否正確地考慮了這一點？或者還有其他原因嗎？

I think we're very, very confident in getting to 60% given that we've been less restored internationally, and internationally has actually a higher component of premium revenues and -- as well as the new fleets coming in and the continuation of growth at American Express and (inaudible). So I think the one that we're not confident with right now is cargo for 2024. We've seen some lowering yields, but that's being more than offset by the international restoration. So I don't see that continuing to grow at double digits as we head into '24. But I think 60%, as you pointed out, was our aspirational target. As we get closer and closer to it, it looks like it's -- we may need to increase that as we get closer to '24.

我認為我們非常非常有信心達到 60%，因為我們在國際上的恢復較少，而且國際上的溢價收入實際上佔了更高的組成部分，而且——以及新機隊的進入和持續增長在美國運通和（聽不清）。因此，我認為我們現在沒有信心的是 2024 年的貨物。我們已經看到收益率有所下降，但這被國際復甦所抵消。因此，隨著我們進入 24 世紀，我認為這一數字不會繼續以兩位數增長。但我認為，正如你所指出的，60% 是我們的理想目標。隨著我們越來越接近它，它看起來像 - 隨著我們接近 24 年，我們可能需要增加它。

We'll now move on to our next question from David Vernon with Bernstein.

我們現在將繼續討論 David Vernon 和 Bernstein 提出的下一個問題。

So Dan, you mentioned the cost of adding incremental capacity right now as very low as we get through to '23. '24. Can you talk about how low that is relative to the average? And then maybe as a follow-on, Ed or Glen, can you talk to the topic of maintaining capacity discipline, right? Obviously, if there's a way to unlock cost, you want to unlock the cost, but you also don't necessarily want to flood the market. How could -- how would you suggest we kind of sue the investor concerns about that tension between adding capacity to lower cost versus potentially adding too much capacity and tipping over the fair cart?

所以丹，你提到現在增加增量容量的成本非常低，因為我們已經到了 23 年。 '24.你能談談相對於平均水平有多低嗎？然後也許作為後續，Ed 或 Glen，你能談談保持能力紀律的話題，對嗎？顯然，如果有辦法解鎖成本，你想解鎖成本，但你也不一定想充斥市場。怎麼可能 - 你會如何建議我們起訴投資者擔心增加產能以降低成本與可能增加過多產能和翻倒公平購物車之間的緊張關係？

Okay. First, on the cost opportunity and the incremental costs associated with it. When you think about where we are this year in '22, we're 18 points higher on a unit cost basis versus '19. And in there, there's over 9 points related to scale and the ability to put scale in going from 85% restored to being fully restored. That would go in at low incremental CASM in the $0.03 to $0.04 range. And then there's another 5 points related to -- I talked about over $1 billion related to the rebuild and inefficiencies. About half -- almost half of that is rebuild. And when you think about that bucket, half of that is just the hiring and training intensity that we're under. And that will -- as Ed talked about, as we put people back in production, that will sunset.

好的。首先，關於成本機會和與之相關的增量成本。當您考慮今年 22 年的情況時，我們的單位成本比 19 年高 18 個百分點。在那裡，有超過 9 個點與規模相關，以及將規模從 85% 恢復到完全恢復的能力。這將以 0.03 美元至 0.04 美元的低增量 CASM 進入。然後還有另外 5 點與 - 我談到了與重建和低效率有關的超過 10 億美元。大約一半——幾乎一半是重建。當你想到那個桶時，其中一半只是我們所承受的招聘和培訓強度。這將——正如 Ed 所說的，當我們讓人們重新投入生產時，那將會日落。

And then the other piece is split between elevated over time as we've protected the operation and also the reactivation of the fleet from that product that isn't normal run rate maintenance. So that's really where you get the 14 points of opportunity of the 18, but the incremental piece is at 9 points, which is very attractive incremental growth at low CASM.

然後另一部分分為隨著時間的推移而升高，因為我們已經保護了操作，並且還從非正常運行率維護的產品中重新激活了機隊。所以這確實是你獲得 18 個機會點的 14 個點的地方，但增量部分是 9 個點，這在低 CASM 下是非常有吸引力的增量增長。

On capacity, we are just going to continue to monitor it as we move forward. And each one -- each market is different. And when we look at it not at an aggregate level, but at a market level to ensure that our margins stay where we need them to be. And so I think that's our -- has been our approach historically. It's worked quite well. And our approach moving forward is that it's -- it's actually a very granular thing. And what we've seen is demand has come back very different in 2022 than it left in 2019. Although the aggregates are now above where we were in '19, where people are flying and why they're flying is very different. And so that's where we're going to continue to focus on, seeing opportunities and capitalizing them in '23 as we move forward with our rebuild.

在容量方面，我們將在前進的過程中繼續對其進行監控。每一個——每個市場都是不同的。當我們不是從總體層面來看，而是從市場層面來看，以確保我們的利潤率保持在我們需要的水平。所以我認為這是我們的 - 歷史上一直是我們的方法。它工作得很好。我們前進的方法是——它實際上是一個非常細化的東西。我們看到的是，2022 年的需求回升與 2019 年的需求大不相同。儘管現在的總量高於 19 年的水平，但人們飛行的地方和飛行的原因卻大不相同。所以這就是我們將繼續關注的地方，在 23 年我們繼續重建時看到機會並利用它們。

And David, if I could add to Glen's comments, as you also appreciate, we've been, by far, the most cautious about building back our network given that we wanted to make certain we're doing it reliably, and we're doing it with our customers and our people in mind, first and foremost. And so a good chunk of the restoration is solely that, just getting back up to our normalized industry share at full capacity and utilization of the airline.

大衛，如果我可以補充格倫的評論，正如你也欣賞的那樣，到目前為止，鑑於我們希望確保我們正在可靠地做這件事，我們在重建我們的網絡方面一直是最謹慎的，而且我們正在首先要考慮到我們的客戶和我們的員工。因此，恢復的很大一部分僅僅是在航空公司的全部產能和利用率下恢復到我們正常化的行業份額。

There are a lot more governors in this environment on the capacity than ever before, whether it's high-fuel prices, high-cost capital, difficulty getting pilot staffed, typically OEMs producing aircraft. So I think with respect to investor questions around overall capacity levels, I feel very comfortable with what we're doing here at Delta.

在這種環境下，能力方面的州長比以往任何時候都多，無論是高燃料價格、高成本資本、難以配備飛行員，通常是生產飛機的原始設備製造商。所以我認為關於投資者關於整體產能水平的問題，我對我們在達美所做的事情感到非常滿意。

So is it fair to say that profitability is more important than achieving some unit costs and market share goal?

那麼可以說盈利能力比實現某些單位成本和市場份額目標更重要嗎？

Of course. It's always about profitability and margins. And that's why I said in my remarks, I think we are uniquely positioned to do both, to grow where we haven't had the opportunity to grow as quickly as others have grown coupled with strong demand supporting that, coupled with a significant unit cost benefit as we move forward because we already own all the assets, and we already have the full staffing numbers pretty much on property.

當然。它始終與盈利能力和利潤率有關。這就是為什麼我在講話中說，我認為我們具有獨特的優勢，可以同時做到這兩點，在我們沒有機會像其他公司那樣快速增長的地方增長，再加上強勁的需求支撐著這一點，再加上巨大的單位成本因為我們已經擁有所有資產，並且我們已經擁有了幾乎全部的財產人員，所以我們會在前進的過程中受益。

We'll take our next question from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們將向 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu 提出下一個問題。

Maybe I wanted to ask a big picture question, Ed. Industry unit revenues are up fairly substantially over the long-term trend due to a number of factors you guys have talked about. I know you don't want to comment on forward pricing trends for you, but broadly about the industry. Do you think that through the pandemic with the growth of expansion of premium, growth of loyalty products and other shifts, do you think that there's a structural shift in the way airlines think about pricing and the consumer takes that price?

也許我想問一個大問題，Ed。由於你們談到的許多因素，行業單位收入在長期趨勢中相當顯著。我知道您不想為您評論遠期定價趨勢，而是廣泛地評論該行業。您是否認為隨著保費增長、忠誠度產品增長和其他轉變的大流行，您是否認為航空公司對定價的看法以及消費者接受該價格的方式發生了結構性轉變？

Yes. I don't -- we don't ever comment on forward pricing. And I think what you've seen is that the industry has done a good job historically now in recovering the higher cost in both fuel and nonfuel. And I don't see anything that would indicate that, that's not going to be the case moving forward.

是的。我沒有——我們從不對遠期定價發表評論。而且我認為您所看到的是，該行業從歷史上看現在在回收燃料和非燃料的較高成本方面做得很好。而且我沒有看到任何表明這一點的東西，這不會是向前發展的情況。

Okay. Then maybe just a quick follow-up. Can you just talk about the strength of the dollar versus other currencies, and then how that's potentially affecting international demand at all?

好的。然後也許只是一個快速的跟進。您能否談談美元兌其他貨幣的強勢，以及這對國際需求的潛在影響？

Absolutely. Great question. As we know, the dollar is at historic highs right now. And normally, we would see that impacting our offshore point of sale in terms of realized fares. But given the demand and supply balance that's existing right now in all of the international marketplaces that we serve, we see that not materializing. The fare increases have more than offset the lower currency rates. And indeed, the onshore tracking as a percent of 2019 is roughly in sync with offshore revenue. So really good balance.

絕對地。好問題。眾所周知，美元目前處於歷史高位。通常，我們會看到這會影響我們的離岸銷售點的實際票價。但鑑於我們服務的所有國際市場目前存在的供需平衡，我們認為這並沒有實現。票價上漲抵消了較低的貨幣匯率。事實上，2019 年的在岸跟踪佔 2019 年的百分比與離岸收入大致同步。所以真的很好的平衡。

And what we've also seen is given the strength of the dollar, that outbound travel has more than offset a bit of weakness in terms of the outbound travel from the foreign point of sale. So all in all, that's been a very positive mix for us. At a service level, you might look at it and say that could be trouble. But for us, it's not been trouble at Delta.

我們還看到，鑑於美元走強，出境旅遊抵消了國外銷售點出境旅遊方面的一些疲軟。總而言之，這對我們來說是一個非常積極的組合。在服務級別上，您可能會看到它並說這可能是個麻煩。但對我們來說，達美航空並不麻煩。

We'll now take our next question from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們現在將向 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group 提出我們的下一個問題。

So on the Amex side, $5.5 billion, you're talking about going to $7.5 billion by $24 million. How do you think about '23? Is it linear? How does the downturn in consumer spending impact that trajectory?

所以在美國運通方面，55 億美元，你說的是 75 億美元減去 2400 萬美元。 23年你怎麼看？是線性的嗎？消費者支出的低迷如何影響這一軌跡？

I'd say given where we sit right now, we are very confident in the $5.5 billion, and we have some rate adjustments that occur in '23 that give you a good way to the $7 billion, and then the continued acquisitions. I think we're -- we have some cushion in there right now. And it's not a stretch objective to get to $7 billion in '24 as we sit today. And so there's a little cushion in there should we see revenues plateau.

我想說，鑑於我們現在所處的位置，我們對 55 億美元非常有信心，並且我們在 23 年進行了一些利率調整，這為您提供了獲得 70 億美元的好方法，然後是繼續收購。我認為我們 - 我們現在有一些緩衝。像我們今天坐的那樣，在 24 年達到 70 億美元並不是一個遙不可及的目標。因此，如果我們看到收入停滯不前，那裡會有一點緩衝。

Well, having said that, we have not seen card spend plateau. And although we have a record number of accounts in force, we're also seeing record spend on individual cards right up until today. So I mean this is really current numbers that we're looking at.

好吧，話雖如此，我們還沒有看到卡消費高原。儘管我們擁有創紀錄的有效賬戶數量，但直到今天我們也看到了個人卡上的創紀錄支出。所以我的意思是這確實是我們正在研究的當前數字。

And so while we're mindful that, that may trend down a little bit, I think we've got some cushion in there given the strong acquisition and affinity in the brand.

因此，雖然我們注意到這一點可能會有所下降，但我認為鑑於品牌的強大收購和親和力，我們已經獲得了一些緩衝。

Okay. And then with all the talk about the excess cost in the network right now and restoring the network, what's your degree of confidence that CASM could be down year-over-year, '23 versus '22, and you can maintain sort of double-digit margin even if pricing starts to moderate?

好的。然後，隨著所有關於現在網絡中的超額成本和恢復網絡的討論，你對 CASM 可能同比下降的信心程度是多少，'23 與 '22，你可以保持某種程度的雙-即使定價開始放緩，仍能獲得數位利潤？

Yes. It goes back to a little bit what I talked about earlier. When you think about sequentially year-over-year, we're up 18 points. So our confidence is as high as it relates to the 14 points that I talked about in an opportunity for clear improvement because of the capacity going in, 15 points alone drives over 9 points of that.

是的。這可以追溯到我之前談到的一點點。當您考慮同比增長時，我們上升了 18 個百分點。因此，我們的信心與我談到的 14 分一樣高，因為容量的增加，這是一個明顯改進的機會，僅 15 分就超過了其中的 9 分。

The other one I gave you a lot of color on it is regarding the rebuild cost, and those will certainly sunset and dissipate as we complete the rebuild. And then I think the last one is the efficiency, which is the other half of that 5-point, and we'll get that over time. That's about the proficient -- the workforce and our resources getting more effective.

我給你很多顏色的另一個是關於重建成本，隨著我們完成重建，這些肯定會日落並消散。然後我認為最後一個是效率，這是 5 分的另一半，隨著時間的推移我們會得到它。那是關於熟練的——勞動力和我們的資源變得更加有效。

It certainly is helped by the operational reliability that is foundational to that as that happens. And we see that the workforce will get the hours more aligned to the operations. And the underlying processes and efficiencies will come through.

發生這種情況時，作為基礎的操作可靠性肯定會有所幫助。我們看到員工的工作時間將與運營更加一致。並且基礎流程和效率將通過。

And Scott, if I could wrap that, this is Ed. When you think about next year, obviously, we're going to be bringing a fair bit of capacity into the domestic system. That's going to help with what Glen mentioned earlier, a lot of our customers are priced out of our products.

斯科特，如果我能把它包起來，我是埃德。顯然，當你考慮明年時，我們將為國內系統帶來相當多的容量。這將有助於 Glen 之前提到的，我們的很多客戶都對我們的產品定價過高。

And so we're going to be bringing more affordability, opening us up to additional buckets of demand. Yet at the same time, the incremental marginal cost of delivering that supply is substantially lower than any modest price adjustments we would see.

因此，我們將帶來更多的負擔能力，為我們帶來更多的需求。然而與此同時，提供這種供應的增量邊際成本大大低於我們所看到的任何適度的價格調整。

We'll now move on to our next question from Andrew Didora with Bank of America.

我們現在將繼續討論美國銀行的 Andrew Didora 提出的下一個問題。

Glen, when I look at kind of your domestic passenger revenues, 3Q, they were up 2. And 2Q, they were up 3. What do you think it takes to get the domestic network growth accelerating? Is it just the capacity adds in your core hubs that you spoke of earlier on? Or should we just think about the opening up of international markets being the main driver of the revenue recovery over the next few quarters?

格倫，當我看一下你們的國內客運收入時，第三季度，他們上升了 2。第二季度，他們上升了 3。你認為需要什麼才能讓國內網絡加速增長？僅僅是您之前提到的核心集線器中的容量增加嗎？還是我們應該只考慮國際市場的開放是未來幾個季度收入復甦的主要驅動力？

I think it's both, right, is that -- and pretty evenly distributed. We have first time, forever, we're actually now bigger in the transatlantic in the month of October than we were in October of '19 and with very successful unit revenues and improved profitability there.

我認為兩者兼而有之，是的，而且分佈相當均勻。我們第一次，永遠，我們現在在 10 月份在跨大西洋地區的規模比 19 年 10 月份的規模更大，並且那裡的單位收入非常成功，盈利能力也有所提高。

So I think as we head through the winter, it's international growth. We have LATAM now really starting to come online in earnest. And then the Japan opening in -- right now is a very exciting thing for us being a historically very large carrier in Japan.

所以我認為當我們度過冬天時，這是國際增長。我們現在已經真正開始認真上線 LATAM。然後日本的開放——現在對於我們作為日本歷史上非常大的運營商來說是一件非常令人興奮的事情。

So if the international marketplaces are open and open without restrictions, we see robust demand, and we see that continuing to be our backdrop. We see -- we have good visibility now to the winter in Europe because the APs are a little bit longer in Europe.

因此，如果國際市場不受限制地開放，我們會看到強勁的需求，我們認為這將繼續成為我們的背景。我們看到 - 我們現在對歐洲的冬天有很好的了解，因為歐洲的 AP 有點長。

And so now we're thinking about the spring. And I can't imagine that as we get to spring and summer of next year that we don't see another robust demand because we did miss 3 years of demand for the leisure travel to Europe. So people run out of time, myself included. And I think, gosh, how many years do I have left to do that? And so I think we have a really good backdrop there.

所以現在我們正在考慮春天。而且我無法想像，當我們進入明年春季和夏季時，我們不會看到另一個強勁的需求，因為我們確實錯過了 3 年對歐洲休閒旅行的需求。所以人們的時間不多了，包括我自己。我想，天哪，我還有多少年可以做到這一點？所以我認為我們在那裡有一個非常好的背景。

And then domestically, these are customers that we know want to fly Delta. These are in our core -- our regional markets that we just weren't able to produce capacity at attractive inventory levels that they would want to purchase on Delta. And as we bring those down, as Ed mentioned earlier, as we bring those relative fair premiums down, as we open up the hubs, we think that's going to be some relatively easy lifting for us.

然後在國內，我們知道這些客戶想要乘坐達美航空。這些是我們的核心——我們的區域市場，我們只是無法以有吸引力的庫存水平生產他們想要在達美購買的產能。正如 Ed 之前提到的，當我們降低這些費用時，當我們降低那些相對公平的保費時，當我們開放樞紐時，我們認為這對我們來說將是一些相對容易的提升。

Got it. That's helpful. And just wanted to follow-up from an earlier question as regard to the improved training pipeline that Ed mentioned earlier.

知道了。這很有幫助。只是想跟進一個關於 Ed 之前提到的改進的培訓管道的問題。

Look, you've been very consistent about carefully building back the network by next summer. But if you wanted to, would you have enough pilot availability and enough labor to accelerate that network restoration? Not saying that you will, but I'm just trying to get a sense of where you stand just in terms of the pipeline -- the training backlog.

看，你一直非常一致地在明年夏天之前仔細地重建網絡。但是，如果您願意，您是否有足夠的試點可用性和足夠的勞動力來加速網絡恢復？並不是說你會，但我只是想了解你在管道方面的立場 - 培訓積壓。

You can expect our network rebuild to be disciplined. It's going to steadily grow. But we're not going to fall in the trap we were last spring where we pushed ourselves too hard. So we learned from that. We're not going to accelerate it faster, and we're ready to deliver.

您可以期望我們的網絡重建受到紀律處分。它會穩步增長。但我們不會落入去年春天的陷阱，我們把自己逼得太緊了。所以我們從中吸取了教訓。我們不會更快地加速它，我們已經準備好交付。

We'll now take our next question from Jamie Baker with JPMorgan.

我們現在將向摩根大通的 Jamie Baker 提出下一個問題。

Glen, you commented a couple of times on corporate recovering, but looking different. Hoping you can expand on that, but also include leisure. And just a couple of examples. Looking at JPMorgan employee patterns, Friday meetings that are increasingly difficult to get. So most of our employees are coming back Thursday night instead. I'm seeing people leave earlier for Thanksgiving since they know they can work on the road. I'm just looking for more examples of these type of shifts and, more importantly, whether revenue management and scheduling have to evolve to take advantage of it?

格倫，你曾多次評論企業復甦，但看起來不同。希望您可以對此進行擴展，但也包括休閒。只是幾個例子。看看摩根大通的員工模式，週五開會越來越難。因此，我們的大多數員工都將在周四晚上回來。我看到人們提前離開感恩節，因為他們知道他們可以在路上工作。我只是在尋找更多此類轉變的例子，更重要的是，收入管理和調度是否必鬚髮展以利用它？

I think they already have. And I think, as I mentioned earlier, that the demand sets are very different than they were in 2019 in terms of places people are going, in terms of times that they're going. And we're making those adjustments.

我想他們已經有了。而且我認為，正如我之前提到的，就人們去的地方和去的時間而言，需求集與 2019 年有很大不同。我們正在做這些調整。

I think one of the more interesting things, as you mentioned, Monday -- Sunday night outbound, Monday morning outbound used to be the peak. That's now bleeding into Tuesday, out Tuesday, back Thursday, so some shorter trips midweek. It's bleeding into people, taking -- mixing business and leisure. So I know myself, I went to Paris last week for meetings, and I spent the weekend for leisure and before I probably would have just come back.

正如你所提到的，我認為其中一個更有趣的事情是，週一-週日晚上出境，週一早上出境曾經是高峰。現在已經流血到週二，週二，週四回來，所以在周中進行了一些較短的旅行。它正在滲入人們的心，將商業和休閒融為一體。所以我了解我自己，我上週去巴黎開會，我在周末度過了休閒時光，我可能剛剛回來。

So I think we see that. We see that, we see in the holidays with people not having to necessarily be in the office as regularly as they did before the pandemic, and we see people stretching out the holiday. So Sunday night, Monday morning -- Sunday night returns or the Sunday after Thanksgiving was historically the highest revenue day we had in our network.

所以我認為我們看到了這一點。我們看到，我們在假期看到人們不必像大流行之前那樣經常在辦公室，我們看到人們延長假期。所以周日晚上，週一早上——週日晚上回歸或感恩節後的周日是歷史上我們網絡中收入最高的一天。

That's now a little bit lighter, and we see that travel moving into Monday and Tuesday returns. So yes -- and we've been making those adjustments along the way, and I think pretty successfully. And I think it's pretty exciting, right, that it's coming -- in aggregate, it's coming back differently, but it's coming back even stronger.

現在稍微輕鬆了一點，我們看到週一和周二的旅行又回來了。所以是的 - 我們一直在進行這些調整，我認為非常成功。而且我認為這非常令人興奮，對，它即將到來 - 總的來說，它會以不同的方式回歸，但它會更加強大。

Okay. And quickly for Ed. So Mark and I have been doing quite a bit of work on LATAM. You referenced it before now that the JBA is in place. Can you update us on the partnership? I mean how have your forecast changed because of their restructuring as well as the industry dynamic in South America. How should we think about the contribution of Delta going forward? Just an update there would be appreciated.

好的。並很快為埃德。所以馬克和我一直在做很多關於 LATAM 的工作。您之前引用過它，因為 JBA 已經到位。你能更新我們的合作夥伴關係嗎？我的意思是，由於他們的重組以及南美的行業動態，您的預測發生了怎樣的變化。我們應該如何看待台達未來的貢獻？只是一個更新將不勝感激。

Sure. A couple of things that have changed. One, as you know, they've also worked through the very difficult restructuring. And they're still not out of the court process, though they expect to be out sometime next month. So we're anxious to see them out, and that's going to provide them some additional opportunities to start to grow and really take advantage of the powerhouse they've become as well as the substantial reduction in cost as well as balance sheet -- reductions on debt that they've been able to achieve through the bankruptcy process.

當然。有幾件事發生了變化。一，如你所知，他們也經歷了非常困難的重組。他們仍然沒有退出法庭程序，儘管他們預計下個月的某個時候會出庭。因此，我們急於看到它們出局，這將為它們提供一些額外的機會來開始發展並真正利用它們已成為的強大力量，以及大幅降低成本和資產負債表——減少他們通過破產程序獲得的債務。

We just got the ATI from DOT, and we're excited about that. So we haven't really been able to talk in 3 years to them at a detailed level about the JV itself, though those meetings are beginning literally as we speak. And it's a little bit of a delayed response, but there's nothing in there that we laid out 3 years ago when we announced the investment in LATAM that I'm any less excited for.

我們剛剛從 DOT 獲得了 ATI，對此我們感到很興奮。因此，我們在 3 年內無法真正與他們就合資企業本身進行詳細的交談，儘管這些會議實際上是在我們講話時開始的。這有點延遲響應，但是我們在 3 年前宣布對 LATAM 的投資時，沒有什麼讓我感到不那麼興奮的。

I think if anything, we're going to have an accelerated impact there. The competitive balance in South America is less intense as a lot of local airlines got hit by the pandemic pretty hard. And you look at them, you look at what we're doing with Aeromexico in the same time, we see a lot of growth potential for Delta as well as the JV.

我認為，如果有的話，我們將在那裡產生加速影響。由於許多當地航空公司受到大流行的嚴重打擊，南美的競爭平衡不那麼激烈。你看看他們，你看看我們在同一時間與墨西哥航空公司做的事情，我們看到了達美航空和合資企業的巨大增長潛力。

We'll then move on to our next question from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

然後，我們將繼續討論 Duane Pfennigwerth 與 Evercore ISI 的下一個問題。

Most of my questions have been asked. But maybe one for Glen on seasonality and sort of getting back to normal seasonality, which some other carriers have referred to. Can you just talk about which regions, if any, are sort of back to normal and maybe contrast domestic with some of the international regions, which are probably outperforming sequentially?

我的大部分問題都被問到了。但也許對於格倫來說，季節性和某種恢復正常的季節性，其他一些運營商已經提到過。您能否談談哪些地區（如果有的話）已經恢復正常，並且可能將國內與一些國際地區進行對比，這些地區可能連續表現出色？

I'd say there's a new normal on all of this. And while we do start to see seasonality patterns reemerging that we're not as present in the early stages of the rebuild, they're not as acute maybe as they were pre-pandemic. So we had a fantastic September to Florida, absent of the hurricane, which you wouldn't have thought. If you look at September, which is historically one of the worst months for Florida, you couldn't buy a ticket to Disney. We had some people who were on break here, and they said they wanted to go to Disney with their families and they couldn't buy a ticket. It's closed out.

我想說所有這一切都有一個新常態。雖然我們確實開始看到季節性模式重新出現，我們在重建的早期階段並不像現在這樣，但它們可能不像大流行前那樣嚴重。所以我們在佛羅里達度過了一個美妙的九月，沒有你想不到的颶風。如果你看看 9 月，這在歷史上是佛羅里達州最糟糕的月份之一，你就買不到迪士尼的門票。我們有一些人在這裡休息，他們說他們想和家人一起去迪士尼，他們買不到票。它已經關閉了。

And so I think we've seen this shift. And as airfares have increased and as hotels have increased and the whole -- people are also moving to the shoulders a little bit more because they can take advantage of the fact that on the margin, it's a little bit less expensive, and they have more flexibility with their work that they don't necessarily need to be in the office on those days.

所以我認為我們已經看到了這種轉變。隨著機票價格的上漲和酒店的增加以及整體的增長——人們也更多地靠在肩膀上，因為他們可以利用這樣一個事實，即在邊際上，它會便宜一點，而且他們擁有更多他們工作的靈活性，他們在那些日子不一定需要在辦公室。

So I think yes, there are definitely things that are reappearing in terms of more traditional seasonality. But I think also, there are a lot of things that are offsetting that muting it and making it a little bit less pronounced as it was pre-pandemic.

所以我認為是的，就更傳統的季節性而言，肯定有一些事情正在重新出現。但我也認為，有很多事情可以抵消它的靜音，使它不像大流行前那樣明顯。

That's helpful. And then maybe just one for Dan. Just given the move in rates, any high-level thoughts on pension gains versus interest expense? And any particular pieces of debt that you'll need to roll in 2023 and how we should be thinking about that?

這很有幫助。然後也許只有一個給丹。考慮到利率的變化，關於養老金收益與利息支出的任何高層想法？以及您需要在 2023 年償還的任何特定債務，我們應該如何考慮？

Yes. Certainly. As it relates to the debt stack, 17% of our debt is variable, and the size of that relative to our cash position, our cash position to outsize. So as you have increasing rates, actually, interest income will outpace interest expense meaningful through that period of time.

是的。當然。由於它與債務堆棧有關，我們 17% 的債務是可變的，並且相對於我們的現金頭寸而言，我們的現金頭寸會變大。因此，隨著利率的提高，實際上，在這段時間內，利息收入將超過有意義的利息支出。

On the pension, you have both the -- when you think about it, rates reduce your liability, change your interest expense. Those are fairly neutral as you're going forward, certainly change in your asset returns versus your expected performance. And given how debt and -- the debt markets and equity markets have moved; we've underperformed the expected target rate. So you smooth those into earnings over a 20-year period, and then you earn off a lower rate. So that would create a headwind.

在養老金方面，你有--當你考慮它時，利率會減少你的負債，改變你的利息支出。隨著您的前進，這些都是相當中性的，當然您的資產回報與您的預期表現相比會發生變化。考慮到債務以及債務市場和股票市場的變化；我們的表現低於預期的目標利率。因此，您將這些收入平滑為 20 年的收入，然後以較低的利率賺取收益。所以這會造成逆風。

As you think about going forward, we'll talk more about that in December. We had that stepping down somewhat, but not to the degree that it will. But interest expense is ahead. As we've been ahead on, on managing down our debt levels and ahead on that, our interest expense is coming in better, and our interest income will be better, which will be a partial offset to that.

當您考慮前進時，我們將在 12 月詳細討論。我們在某種程度上有所下降，但沒有達到預期的程度。但是利息費用在前面。由於我們一直在控制我們的債務水平並在這方面取得領先，我們的利息支出會更好，我們的利息收入會更好，這將部分抵消這一點。

We'll then move on to our next question from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

然後，我們將繼續討論 Ravi Shanker 與摩根士丹利的下一個問題。

Glen, I just wanted to confirm something that I heard you say about the holiday season being extended and that kind of pushing some demand into January. Can you unpack that a little bit and kind of talk about how much that impacted your 4Q comps versus 2019?

格倫，我只是想確認一下我聽到你所說的關於假期延長以及將一些需求推到 1 月份的事情。您能否稍微解釋一下，與 2019 年相比，這對您的 4 季度業績有多大影響？

And also, did you see something similar over the summer into the fall where do you think that some people who may have been priced at of traveling over the summer are now traveling in the fall?

而且，你有沒有在夏天到秋天看到過類似的事情，你認為一些可能在夏天旅行的人現在在秋天旅行？

No. I think it's mostly the fact -- just a calendar shift of where the returns are. And so I think that's -- and we think it's about 2 points of sequential decline from -- in our 23.5 to 17, about 2 points of that is a shift of some of the returns of the holiday into January.

不。我認為這主要是事實——只是回報所在的日曆變化。所以我認為這是 - 我們認為這是從我們的 23.5 到 17 的連續下降大約 2 個點，其中大約 2 個點是假期的一些回報轉移到 1 月份。

We'll now go to our final analyst question.

我們現在將討論最後一個分析師問題。

We'll take our final question from Helane Becker with Cowen.

我們將向 Cowen 的 Helane Becker 提出最後一個問題。

Appreciate the time. So team, here's my question. As you think about the shift in mix that you've been talking about, not just this quarter, but most of the year, how should we think about the importance of loyalty? You've talked about the increase in SkyMile cards and the spend you're seeing. But I have to think that loyalty is shifting kind of away from that business traveler to the leisure traveler. So how should we think about that going forward?

珍惜時間。所以團隊，這是我的問題。當您考慮您一直在談論的組合轉變時，不僅是本季度，而是一年中的大部分時間，我們應該如何考慮忠誠度的重要性？您談到了 SkyMile 卡的增加和您所看到的支出。但我不得不認為，忠誠度正在從商務旅行者轉向休閒旅行者。那麼我們應該如何看待未來呢？

Well, Helane, I think at a macro level is that whatever your purpose was, the redemptions that carried at the end was always for the leisure travel. And so as people continue to see our brand evolving and want to become involved with it, whether or not it's for business or for leisure, we've seen the opportunity to continue to grow the program itself at record pace, which is very exciting and, I think, a real testament to the brand strength and all the hard work that Delta people put out every day.

嗯，Helane，我認為在宏觀層面上，無論你的目的是什麼，最後進行的兌換總是為了休閒旅行。因此，隨著人們繼續看到我們的品牌不斷發展並希望參與其中，無論是出於商務還是休閒目的，我們都看到了以創紀錄的速度繼續發展該計劃本身的機會，這非常令人興奮和，我認為，這是對台達人每天付出的品牌實力和所有辛勤工作的真實證明。

And now it's our job to take that brand strength and turn it into profitability. And of course, we do that through using those as prospects for our American Express card, but we're also increasingly making our ecosystem broader. And I think just yesterday, we had a very exciting announcement about partnering with Starbucks and linking our programs together.

現在，我們的工作就是利用這種品牌優勢並將其轉化為盈利能力。當然，我們通過將這些作為我們美國運通卡的前景來做到這一點，但我們也越來越多地擴大我們的生態系統。我想就在昨天，我們發布了一個非常激動人心的消息，即將與星巴克合作並將我們的項目聯繫在一起。

And I think creating an exciting dynamic ecosystem that is the cornerstone of our loyalty program, which is, of course, based on the fantastic airline that Delta runs every day, is really the base of it. But we are very excited about where we can take this over the next 5 years in terms of expanding that loyalty platform to be more than just Delta as an airline.

我認為創建一個令人興奮的動態生態系統是我們忠誠度計劃的基石，當然，這是基於達美航空每天運營的出色航空公司，這確實是它的基礎。但我們很高興能在未來 5 年內將這一忠誠度平台擴大到不僅僅是作為一家航空公司的達美航空。

All right. With that, we'll wrap up the analyst portion of the call. I'll now turn it over to Trebor Banstetter, our Managing Director of Enterprise and Leader Communications, to start the media questions.

好的。有了這個，我們將結束電話的分析師部分。我現在將把它交給我們的企業和領導者傳播董事總經理 Trebor Banstetter 來開始媒體提問。

Thank you, Julie. Cody, as we transition to the media Q&A, please remind all the reporters on the call the process for joining the queue. We're going to try to get to as many questions as we can in our remaining time.

謝謝你，朱莉。 Cody，當我們過渡到媒體問答時，請提醒所有通話中的記者加入隊列的過程。在剩下的時間裡，我們將嘗試盡可能多地解決問題。

Absolutely. (Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Mary Schlangenstein with Bloomberg News.

絕對地。 （操作員說明）我們將向彭博新聞社的 Mary Schlangenstein 提出第一個問題。

I wanted to first get a quick clarification. When you were talking about the regional capacity being constrained -- continuing to be constrained, and thus, your capacity being constrained by the pilot shortage, I thought I understood you to say you don't expect the full restoration at the regional level until '24, '25 at the earliest. I wanted to make sure, I was hearing that correctly and whether you're talking about just Delta or if you're talking about the industry there?

我想先快速澄清一下。當你談到區域能力受到限制時——繼續受到限制，因此，你的能力受到試點短缺的限制，我想我理解你的意思，你不希望在區域層面全面恢復，直到' 24, '25 最早。我想確定一下，我沒聽錯，你是在談論達美航空還是在談論那裡的行業？

Well, I can't speak to the industry. I can speak for Delta. And yes, you've got it right, '24 to '25 is when we think we'll have the utilization back to historic levels on all the equipment we have contracted.

好吧，我不能和這個行業說話。我可以為達美說話。是的，你說得對，'24 到'25 是我們認為我們將把我們已簽約的所有設備的利用率恢復到歷史水平的時候。

Okay. And my second question was in terms of -- during the pandemic where you had a lot of leisure travelers who were flying, opting to buy up into premium seats because a lot of them were empty, are you still seeing that same thing? Are you seeing a lot of them buying up? Or do you -- have you seen that pull back now and not happening quite so much?

好的。我的第二個問題是——在大流行期間，你有很多休閒旅客乘坐飛機，因為其中很多都是空的，所以選擇購買高級座位，你還看到同樣的事情嗎？你看到他們中的很多人都在購買嗎？或者你 - 你有沒有看到現在回落並且沒有發生這麼多？

No. It's strengthening as we get -- come out of the pandemic. So we're very excited. And I think we highlighted in the call that our recovery is being led by premium products. And premium products are -- restoration is 10 points ahead, main cabin and basic economy. So very excited about people getting used to this, people enjoying it. And intend to repurchase is over 70%. So you see the customers coming back for more of this as well.

不。隨著我們擺脫大流行，它正在加強。所以我們非常興奮。我認為我們在電話會議中強調，我們的複蘇是由優質產品引領的。而優質產品是——恢復領先10分，主艙和基本經濟。對人們習慣了這一點，人們享受它感到非常興奮。並打算回購70%以上。因此，您會看到客戶也回來了。

And have you dropped the number of basic economy fares that you offer per flight or even total?

您是否減少了每個航班甚至全部提供的基本經濟艙票價？

That fluctuates every day based on demand and supply. So in general, it's been trending lower, but that could reverse itself today or tomorrow. So it's not something we actively manage. It's kind of a daily occurrence.

這每天都會根據需求和供應而波動。所以總的來說，它一直在走低，但今天或明天可能會逆轉。所以這不是我們積極管理的事情。這是每天都會發生的事情。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our next question from David Slotnick with TPG.

（操作員說明）我們將向 TPG 的 David Slotnick 提出下一個問題。

I'm wondering just with the growth in co-brand spend and card acquisitions and everything, are you seeing more numbers just year-over-year and year over '19 meeting medallion status or meeting the higher levels of status?

我想知道，隨著聯合品牌支出和卡收購等一切的增長，您是否看到比 '19 年獲得獎章地位或達到更高級別地位的數字與去年同期相比增加了？

Absolutely. And we want to continue to evolve our program today. It's premium for our most premium customers. And as you all know, we announced some changes for the '24 program earlier this month, which was really designed to ensure that we had the correct people. We were the most generous, as you know, also during the pandemic in extending benefit.

絕對地。我們希望今天繼續發展我們的計劃。對於我們最優質的客戶來說，這是溢價。眾所周知，我們在本月早些時候宣布了 '24 計劃的一些變化，其真正目的是確保我們擁有正確的人員。如您所知，在大流行期間，我們在擴大福利方面也是最慷慨的。

So we actually have seen an incredible increase in the number of our most premium customers. And -- but our intent is to make sure that everybody who is a premium customer has a really premium experience. So we've got to balance that off.

因此，我們實際上已經看到我們最優質的客戶數量驚人地增加了。而且——但我們的目的是確保每位優質客戶都能獲得真正優質的體驗。所以我們必須平衡這一點。

And then just considering the capacity cuts this summer and then the capacity discipline that we've seen going forward. I'm wondering if you have any thoughts on just outlook for the holiday season, what we're going to see in terms of operational reliability?

然後只考慮今年夏天的產能削減，然後是我們看到的未來產能紀律。我想知道您是否對假期的前景有任何想法，我們將在運營可靠性方面看到什麼？

We will deliver the type of experience for our customers that they expect, which will be continuing to run just a very, very strong operation. One of the things that Glen talked about earlier is the shift of travel within the holiday period itself. And I think you're going to see a more normalized flow than you would typically do. Holidays tend to be very peaky on the highest days and lighter on some of the less -- lower travel days.

我們將為我們的客戶提供他們期望的體驗類型，這將繼續運行一個非常非常強大的操作。格倫早些時候談到的一件事是假期期間旅行的轉變。而且我認為您會看到比通常情況下更規範的流程。假期往往在最高的日子非常高峰，而在一些較少的 - 較低的旅行日。

And with travelers having a lot more flexibility and mobility relative to work, I think you're going to see a busy period for the Thanksgiving week throughout the week. And that's going to help us operationally a bit as well, managing flow. And I think you'll also see that over the Christmas, New Year break as well.

由於旅行者相對於工作具有更大的靈活性和流動性，我認為你會在整個星期的感恩節週看到一個忙碌的時期。這也將有助於我們在操作上管理流程。我想你也會在聖誕節和新年假期看到這一點。

We'll take your next question from Alison Sider with The Wall Street Journal.

我們將向《華爾街日報》的艾莉森·賽德提出您的下一個問題。

I guess just kind of thinking about the economy broadly. Just curious, from your vantage point, where do we think the economy is? Like are we headed towards recession? But it -- maybe you want where travel is more resilient than it's been in the past? Are we not? I guess just -- you guys have a pretty -- big picture view from where you sit, so just curious for your thoughts.

我想只是從廣義上考慮經濟。只是好奇，從你的角度來看，我們認為經濟在哪裡？就像我們正走向衰退？但它——也許你想去哪裡旅行比過去更有彈性？我們不是嗎？我想只是——你們坐在那裡有一個漂亮的——大畫面，所以只是好奇你的想法。

We mentioned in our remarks that -- and I really do believe it. So the airline industry, not just Delta, is in a countercyclical recovery because we're still building back from where we were. And so the amount of supply that's in the market probably has already taken into account somewhat of any recessionary risks. We're not operating at Delta anywhere close to what we used to operate in the past, and that's why the demand of our product and the pricing for the product has been so strong.

我們在評論中提到——我真的相信。因此，航空業，不僅僅是達美航空，正處於逆週期復蘇，因為我們仍在從原來的位置重建。因此，市場上的供應量可能已經在一定程度上考慮了任何衰退風險。我們在達美的運營方式與我們過去的運營方式不同，這就是為什麼我們的產品需求和產品定價如此強勁的原因。

Our crystal ball is good for 90 to 120 days. After that, it gets a little murky. Our advanced bookings don't go out too much further than that in large numbers. But from what we can see and what our big corporates are telling us is that the travel sector of the economy is going to be very strong through the quarter and into the new year. So that's the best we can. I can't speak for the broader economy.

我們的水晶球可以使用 90 到 120 天。在那之後，它變得有點模糊。我們的提前預訂量不會超過大量預訂量。但從我們所看到的以及我們的大公司告訴我們的情況來看，旅遊業在整個季度和新的一年裡都將非常強勁。所以這是我們能做到的最好的。我不能代表更廣泛的經濟。

I know there's some pretty significant macro shifts going on in spending out of goods and into services, which we are beneficiary of. Of course, we contributed in the last 2 years to the other side of that, and we're glad to see people back on the road.

我知道在商品支出和服務支出方面正在發生一些非常重要的宏觀轉變，我們從中受益。當然，我們在過去 2 年中為這方面做出了貢獻，我們很高興看到人們重新走上這條道路。

And then if I could ask one more. Just curious how you're thinking about share repurchases. Like as you can sort of see that becoming a political issue already. I'm just curious how much sort of the pushback we've already seen from certain lawmakers and labor groups, how much that factors into your thinking about that?

然後如果我可以再問一個。只是好奇你是如何考慮股票回購的。就像你可以看到的那樣，這已經成為一個政治問題。我只是好奇我們已經從某些立法者和勞工團體那裡看到了多少種阻力，這在您的考慮中有多少因素？

Our sole priority at Delta is to make sure that any excess cash that we're generating is used to pay down debt. And we acquired a meaningful amount of debt during the pandemic. And we want to get our investment-grade rating back, as we've talked. So over the next couple of years, that will be our -- and beyond, by the way, not just the next couple of years, that will still be the top priority for any excess cash.

我們在達美的唯一優先事項是確保我們產生的任何多餘現金都用於償還債務。我們在大流行期間獲得了大量債務。正如我們所說，我們希望恢復我們的投資級評級。因此，在接下來的幾年裡，這將是我們的 - 順便說一下，不僅僅是未來幾年，這仍將是任何多餘現金的重中之重。

And of course, we'll also be using our cash to continue to invest in the business and invest in our people. So that's where the cash is going. I don't see any share repurchases happening here at Delta for the foreseeable future.

當然，我們還將使用我們的現金繼續投資於業務並投資於我們的員工。所以這就是現金的去向。在可預見的未來，我認為達美不會發生任何股票回購。

We'll take our next question from Leslie Josephs of CNBC.

我們將向 CNBC 的 Leslie Josephs 提出下一個問題。

I know Delta has been putting in a lot of effort to position itself for a premium airline, and there's a lot of buyout into the premium cabins. Longer term, do you see a need for basic economy anymore?

我知道達美一直在努力將自己定位為一家優質航空公司，並且有很多人買斷了優質客艙。從長遠來看，您是否認為需要基礎經濟？

And then just second question, how much bigger would the airline be if it did have -- was it up to date in pilot training, hiring? And how many aircraft it had?

然後是第二個問題，如果它確實有，航空公司會有多大——它在飛行員培訓、招聘方面是否是最新的？它有多少架飛機？

Basic economy is not a hard cabin. It's an availability of a fare, and we want to keep that in place. It's a very effective tool. We haven't used it as much historically because we've been so full. But as we get to a more normalized environment, there probably will be more basic economy in -- available in '23 than there were in '24.

基本經濟艙不是硬艙。這是票價的可用性，我們希望保持這一點。這是一個非常有效的工具。我們在歷史上沒有使用過它，因為我們已經很飽了。但隨著我們進入一個更加正常化的環境，23 年可能會有比 24 年更多的基本經濟。

And we created that because the way that the ultra-low-cost carriers price their products where they don't show you all of the add-ons, they show you a very low intro fare and then add on everything from carry-ons to (inaudible).

我們創造了這個，因為超低成本航空公司給他們的產品定價的方式是在他們不向您展示所有附加產品的情況下，他們向您展示非常低的介紹票價，然後添加從隨身行李到（聽不清）。

And so we wanted to have a relatively de-counted product, although it's still far superior to the product that you buy on the ULCCs. It doesn't have all the products and the upgradability that the higher fare structures do. And it's a very effective competitive tool.

因此，我們希望有一個相對不計值的產品，儘管它仍然遠遠優於您在 ULCC 上購買的產品。它沒有更高票價結構所具備的所有產品和可升級性。這是一個非常有效的競爭工具。

But as I mentioned earlier, it's -- the fare structures are there, and they're either available because there -- we're not selling out on airplanes or they're not. And so that's the way we've created it, and it's not a cabinet in and of itself. Where the premium products are actually hard cabins. They're Comfort+ or Delta Premium Select or Delta One, which actually have physical attributes as well as the other components. So...

但正如我之前提到的，它是——票價結構在那裡，它們要么是可用的，因為在那裡——我們沒有在飛機上售罄，或者它們沒有。這就是我們創建它的方式，它本身並不是一個內閣。優質產品實際上是硬艙。它們是 Comfort+ 或 Delta Premium Select 或 Delta One，它們實際上具有物理屬性以及其他組件。所以...

And Leslie, on your second question, this summer, we operated roughly 15% below where we were in the summer of '19. And we said our goal is for next summer to close that gap and have our network fully restored. So I think that's a ballpark number of 15%. That doesn't mean we're going to have 15% more people or 15% more planes. It's really just utilizing the people we already have because we're already at pretty close to 2019 staffing levels.

萊斯利，關於你的第二個問題，今年夏天，我們的運營比 19 年夏天的水平低了大約 15%。我們說我們的目標是在明年夏天縮小這一差距並完全恢復我們的網絡。所以我認為這是 15% 的大概數字。這並不意味著我們將增加 15% 的人或增加 15% 的飛機。這實際上只是在利用我們已經擁有的人員，因為我們已經接近 2019 年的人員配備水平。

And the fleet we have has taken a pretty significant utilization hit as we've reduced supplying and bringing it back. So it's really using the assets and the people we already have more efficiently. That's going to generate a meaningful amount of that growth.

由於我們減少了供應並將其帶回，我們的船隊利用率受到了相當大的打擊。所以它實際上是更有效地使用我們已經擁有的資產和人員。這將產生可觀的增長。

Okay. And have the passengers used most of their vouchers and credit that they got during the pandemic? Or are they still sitting on a lot of those? If you have any detail on how much or how many -- what the value is?

好的。乘客是否使用了他們在大流行期間獲得的大部分代金券和信用？還是他們仍然坐在其中很多？如果你有關於多少或多少的任何細節——價值是多少？

We don't release any details, but there's still -- there's a -- we have very long-dated expiration on that. So nothing is going to expire until the end of '24. And there's still a sizable number of credits out there.

我們沒有公佈任何細節，但仍有 - 有一個 - 我們對此有很長的期限。因此，直到 24 年底，任何東西都不會過期。而且還有相當數量的學分。

We'll take our next question from Edward Russell with Skift.

我們將用 Skift 向 Edward Russell 提出我們的下一個問題。

I want to ask what Delta's plan is if the Congress does not extend the waiver for the 737 MAX 10 cockpits that expires at the end of the year?

我想問一下，如果國會不延長年底到期的 737 MAX 10 駕駛艙的豁免，達美的計劃是什麼？

We -- I was asked this question on CNBC this morning, and I said there is a plan B. And of course, when we made the decision to buy the 10, we had a lot of conversations with Boeing around that specific question because it's a big part of our capacity, and we want to make certain that we're not going to be left without an alternative.

我們 - 今天早上在 CNBC 上被問到這個問題，我說有一個 B 計劃。當然，當我們決定購買 10 時，我們就這個特定問題與波音進行了很多對話，因為它是我們能力的很大一部分，我們想確保我們不會沒有選擇。

So we do have a plan B. We're not discussing what that plan B is, but there is a plan B with Boeing in the event it doesn't get certified. That said, we remain optimistic it will be certified.

所以我們確實有一個 B 計劃。我們沒有討論這個 B 計劃是什麼，但如果它沒有獲得認證，波音公司就有一個 B 計劃。也就是說，我們仍然樂觀地認為它將獲得認證。

We'll now take our next question from Dawn Gilbertson with Wall Street General.

我們現在將向華爾街將軍提出 Dawn Gilbertson 的下一個問題。

Ed, I wanted to ask you about the DOT's latest proposal on fee transparency. You guys and other airlines blasted it in 2014. What is your take on this latest proposal? I know you haven't filed a formal comment yet. And secondly, what do you think the chances are of this going through?

Ed，我想問你關於 DOT 關於費用透明度的最新提案。你們和其他航空公司在 2014 年對它進行了抨擊。你對這個最新提議有何看法？我知道你還沒有提交正式評論。其次，您認為這種情況發生的可能性有多大？

It's Peter Carter. What I would say in response to the proposal is we think that customers do have access to fee and pricing information. Today, on the Internet, we think our pricing is transparent. We will be providing formal comment to the DOT because one of the challenges with the rule as proposed is the way they're viewing transparency; they're expecting a carrier to provide a moment of making the search every single potential fee or price without regard to who's actually searching.

是彼得卡特。對於該提案，我想說的是，我們認為客戶確實可以訪問費用和定價信息。今天，在互聯網上，我們認為我們的定價是透明的。我們將向 DOT 提供正式評論，因為提議的規則面臨的挑戰之一是他們看待透明度的方式；他們希望運營商提供一個時間來搜索每一個潛在的費用或價格，而不考慮實際搜索的人。

So it may be a fee that's not relevant to the consumer, which, of course, could create quite a bit of confusion for consumers. So we'll be providing that input to the DOT, and we hope that they obviously see that rule as something that's unnecessary to impose.

因此，這可能是與消費者無關的費用，這當然會給消費者造成相當大的困惑。因此，我們將向 DOT 提供該輸入，我們希望他們顯然認為該規則是沒有必要強加的。

Thank you, Dawn. And we have time for one final question.

謝謝你，黎明。我們有時間回答最後一個問題。

We'll hear next from Kelly Yamanouchi with the Atlanta Journal Constitution. All right. Hearing no response...

接下來我們將聽到來自《亞特蘭大憲法報》的 Kelly Yamanouchi 的發言。好的。聽到沒有反應...

All right, Cody, we'll follow-up with Kelly later, but I think that is going to conclude our call. So thanks, everybody, for listening and participating.

好的，科迪，我們稍後會跟進凱利，但我認為這將結束我們的通話。謝謝大家的聆聽和參與。

Thank you. And that does conclude today's conference. We do thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。這確實結束了今天的會議。我們非常感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。