達美航空 (DAL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Delta Air Lines September Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Matthew, and I will be your coordinator.

各位早安，歡迎參加達美航空2023年9月季度財務業績電話會議。我是本次會議的協調員，名叫馬修。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

再次提醒，今天的通話將會被錄音。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Julie Stewart, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將會議交給投資者關係副總裁朱莉·史都華女士。請開始吧。

Thank you, Matthew. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, in Atlanta, we are joined by CEO, Ed Bastian; President, Glen Hauenstein; and our CFO, Dan Janki. Ed will open the call with an overview of Delta's performance and strategy. Glen will provide an update on the revenue environment, and Dan will discuss costs in our balance sheet. After the prepared remarks, we'll take analyst questions and then we'll move to our media questions.

謝謝馬修。大家早安，感謝各位參加本次電話會議。今天，我們邀請到了執行長艾德·巴斯蒂安、總裁格倫·豪恩斯坦以及財務長丹·揚基，他們齊聚亞特蘭大。艾德將首先概述達美航空的業績和策略。格倫將介紹最新的收入狀況，丹將討論資產負債表中的成本。在他們發言結束後，我們將回答分析師的問題，然後進入媒體提問環節。

Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that may cause such differences are described in Delta's SEC filings. We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and all results exclude special items unless otherwise noted. You can find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures on the Investor Relations page at ir.delta.com. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.

今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述代表了我們對未來事件的看法或預期。所有前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。可能導致此類差異的部分因素已在達美航空提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件中有所描述。我們也將討論非公認會計準則（非GAAP）財務指標，除非另有說明，所有結果均不包含特殊項目。您可以在達美航空官網ir.delta.com的投資人關係頁面找到非GAAP指標的調節表。接下來，我將把電話會議交給Ed。

Well, thank you, Julie, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us. Before we start, I want to acknowledge the unfolding war in Israel and the tragic loss of life that has ensued. Delta is donating $1 million to the American Red Cross for the International Committee of the Red Cross to help fund humanitarian efforts in the conflict. This includes emergency assistance such as health services, emergency care, ambulance services and other critical needs.

好的，謝謝朱莉，大家早安。感謝各位的參與。在正式開始之前，我想先就以色列正在發生的戰爭以及由此造成的慘重生命損失表示關切。達美航空將向美國紅十字會捐贈100萬美元，用於支持紅十字國際委員會在衝突中的人道援助工作。這筆捐款將用於提供緊急援助，例如醫療服務、急救、救護車服務以及其他急需物資。

Our inbound and outbound flights to Tel Aviv have been suspended through October 31 to ensure the safety and security of our customers and employees. We're also offering a customer waiver for travel to Tel Aviv for those who need to change their travel plans. Our hearts are with everyone impacted by these tragic and horrific events.

為保障乘客和員工的安全，我們已暫停所有往返特拉維夫的航班，直至10月31日。我們也為需要更改行程的旅客提供前往特拉維夫的旅行豁免。我們對所有受此悲劇事件影響的人們深表同情。

Turning to our news for the day. This morning, Delta reported September quarter results, posting earnings of $2.03 per share, a 35% increase over last year. Revenue grew 13% and we achieved a 13.5% operating margin. This resulted in operating income of $2 billion, bringing our operating profit over the last 12 months to over $6 billion. The Delta people delivered for our customers throughout the very busy summer season, and I'm grateful to our teams for all they do for our customers and each other every day. Our people are the foundation of Delta and are our most important competitive strength.

接下來是今天的新聞。今天上午，達美航空公佈了9月季度的業績，每股收益為2.03美元，年增35%。營收成長13%，營業利益率達13.5%。這使得我們的營業收入達到20億美元，過去12個月的營業利潤累計超過60億美元。在繁忙的夏季，達美航空的員工始終為乘客提供優質服務，我衷心感謝我們的團隊每天為乘客和彼此所做的一切。員工是達美航空的基石，也是我們最重要的競爭優勢。

Sharing our financial success with our people is a long-standing pillar of Delta's culture. With this quarter's financial performance, we accrued another $420 million towards next February's profit sharing. This brings our profit sharing accrual to over $1 billion year-to-date, marking an important and exciting milestone for the Delta team. The great work of our 100,000 people was recently recognized as Delta ranked #12 overall on Time Magazine's list of The World's Best Companies. We were the only airline to make the top 100 of this prestigious list. And USA Today readers just selected Delta as the Best Airline in the World.

與員工分享財務成功一直是達美航空文化的基石。憑藉本季的財務業績，我們為明年2月的利潤分享計畫累積了4.2億美元。這使得我們今年迄今的利潤分享累計金額超過10億美元，這對達美團隊來說是一個重要且令人振奮的里程碑。我們10萬名員工的卓越工作近期獲得了認可，達美航空榮登《時代》雜誌「全球最佳公司」榜單第12位。我們是唯一躋身該權威榜單前100強的航空公司。此外，《今日美國》的讀者也剛將達美航空評選為「全球最佳航空公司」。

Our operational fundamentals remain strong, underscored by Delta's industry-leading position in on-time arrivals and blue sky operational performance that is reliably back to pre-COVID levels. Following a high number of irregular operations days early in the quarter driven by weather and ATC constraints, we have seen consistent improvement in our operating metrics. In October, we are running a near-perfect completion factor across the mainline system, and we remain #1 in on-time arrivals year-to-date.

我們的營運基本面依然強勁，達美航空在準點到達率方面保持行業領先地位，且營運表現已穩定恢復至新冠疫情前水平，充分印證了這一點。本季度初，受天氣和空管限制的影響，航班出現大量不正常運營，但此後我們的運營指標持續改善。 10月份，我們幹線系統的航班完成率接近完美，今年迄今的準點到達率仍然排名第一。

As we're now in the final phase of our recovery, we are making important forward-leaning investments in the health and reliability of our fleet. These maintenance investments will position us to consistently deliver the operational excellence that underpins Delta's brand. Running a high-quality operation is critical to being the airline of choice for our customers and driving a competitive cost structure. Dan will speak more to this shortly.

隨著我們復甦進入最後階段，我們正在對機隊的健康狀況和可靠性進行重要的前瞻性投資。這些維護投資將使我們能夠持續提供支撐達美航空品牌的卓越營運。高品質的營運對於成為客戶的首選航空公司以及打造具有競爭力的成本結構至關重要。丹稍後將對此進行更詳細的闡述。

During the quarter, we also made a $150 million strategic investment in Wheels Up, co-investing alongside Certares Management, Knighthead Capital and others. This new investment structure combines the #1 premium commercial airline with the travel and tourism expertise of Certares and the turnaround expertise of Knighthead. Delta's relationship with Wheels Up creates a new premium product line for our customers, and I look forward to working with our co-investors and the new management team to unlock the full value of this uniquely positioned business.

本季度，我們也對 Wheels Up 進行了 1.5 億美元的策略投資，與 Certares Management、Knighthead Capital 等其他投資者共同出資。這項新的投資模式將排名第一的高端商業航空公司與 Certares 在旅遊業的專業知識以及 Knighthead 在企業重組方面的專長相結合。達美航空與 Wheels Up 的合作將為我們的客戶打造一條全新的高端產品線，我期待與我們的共同投資者和新的管理團隊攜手合作，充分釋放這家獨具特色的企業的價值。

Turning to our outlook. Travel remains a top purchase priority and our core customer base is in a healthy financial position. We continue to see strength in bookings across Delta's global network, driven by our consumers. Demand for premium experiences, international travel and increasing business travel further differentiate the trends that Delta is seeing within the industry. We expect our December quarter revenues to be 10% higher than 2022 with a 10% operating margin and earnings of over $1 per share. This brings our expectation for full year earnings to over $6 per share on a double-digit operating margin and free cash flow of $2 billion.

展望未來，旅行仍然是消費者的首要消費選擇，我們的核心客戶群財務狀況良好。在消費者的推動下，達美航空全球航線網絡的預訂量持續強勁成長。消費者對高端體驗、國際旅行以及商務旅行需求的不斷增長，進一步凸顯了達美航空在業界所觀察到的獨特趨勢。我們預期第四季營收將比2022年同期成長10%，營業利潤率達10%，每股收益超過1美元。由此，我們預計全年每股收益將超過6美元，營業利潤率將達到兩位數，自由現金流將達到20億美元。

Since raising full year guidance over the summer, our revenue outlook has improved, though earnings and cash flow have been impacted by higher fuel and maintenance costs. Revenue for the full year is expected to increase 20% over last year, which was the high end of our expectations on steady domestic demand and continued strength in international. With strong top line growth and margin expansion, we expect to double earnings year-over-year and deliver a 13% return on invested capital.

自夏季上調全年業績預期以來，我們的營收前景有所改善，但燃油和維護成本上漲對獲利和現金流造成了一定影響。全年營收預計較去年增長20%，符合我們先前的預期上限，主要得益於國內需求的穩定和國際市場的持續強勁增長。憑藉強勁的營收成長和利潤率的提升，我們預計獲利將年增一倍，並實現13%的投資報酬率。

Our outlook for 2023 keeps revenue, earnings, cash flow and debt reduction on track with our 3-year plan, which we issued in December of '21. As we progress through the recovery, we have made meaningful investments in operational reliability and our people. Delta has led the industry in setting the bar for wages, including a new pilot deal and profit sharing.

我們對2023年的展望將確保收入、獲利、現金流和債務削減目標與我們於2021年12月發布的三年計畫保持一致。隨著經濟復甦的推進，我們在營運可靠性和員工方面進行了意義重大的投資。達美航空在薪資方面一直引領業界，包括與飛行員簽訂新的薪資協議和利潤分享計畫。

We are seeing the structural step-up in operating costs amid increasing fuel prices, creating some near-term pressure on industry margins. However, I fully expect that the market will adjust to higher costs as it has historically and reestablish equilibrium. With Delta's differentiated premium revenue strategy and strong global network, we will continue to deliver industry-leading profitability and generate robust free cash flow.

隨著燃油價格上漲，營運成本出現結構性成長，短期內對產業利潤率構成一定壓力。但我完全相信，市場會像以往一樣調整以適應更高的成本，並重新恢復平衡。憑藉達美航空差異化的優質收入策略和強大的全球網絡，我們將繼續保持業界領先的獲利能力，並創造強勁的自由現金流。

In closing, the strategy that we shared at Investor Day positions us well for the future. And while the operate -- the environment we operate in continues to evolve in this post-COVID world, our objectives are unchanged as we move into 2024. With our network rebuilt and growth now moderating, optimizing the airline and driving efficiency are significant opportunities. Thank you again for your support of our company.

最後，我們在投資者日分享的策略使我們為未來做好了充分準備。儘管我們所處的營運環境在後疫情時代不斷變化，但我們邁入2024年的目標依然不變。隨著航線網路的重建和成長速度的放緩，優化航空公司營運和提高效率將成為重要的機會。再次感謝您對我們公司的支持。

And with that, let me hand it over to Glen and to Dan to go through the details of the quarter.

那麼，接下來就交給格倫和丹，讓他們來詳細介紹一下本季的情況。

Thank you, Ed, and good morning. I want to start by thanking all of our employees for their hard work and dedication during the busy summer travel season. In the September quarter, Delta generated revenue of $14.6 billion, up 13% over prior year. Total unit revenues were down 2.5%, including a point of pressure from Cargo and MRO. With these results, I expect Delta to deliver a record September quarter unit revenue premium versus the industry, reflecting the continued success of our commercial strategy.

謝謝艾德，早安。首先，我要感謝所有員工在繁忙的夏季旅遊旺季期間的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。在9月的季度中，達美航空的營收為146億美元，年增13%。總單位營收下降了2.5%，其中貨運和維修業務受到一定影響。基於這些業績，我預期達美航空9月的單位營收將創下業界平均的紀錄，這反映了我們商業策略的持續成功。

Domestic passenger revenue was up 6% over prior year. Performance was steady through the quarter with strength in our coastal hubs where we are leveraging our leading positions in generational airport bills.

國內客運收入較去年同期成長6%。本季業績保持穩定，沿海樞紐機場表現強勁，我們在這些機場的長期客運收入方面佔據領先地位。

International passenger revenue grew 35%, with the Transatlantic and Pacific outperforming our already high expectations. We delivered record margins across all international entities this summer and strength is continuing through the fall.

國際客運收入成長了35%，其中跨大西洋和跨太平洋航線的表現超出了我們原本就很高的預期。今年夏季，我們所有國際業務的利潤率均創歷史新高，而這一強勁勢頭將持續到秋季。

Demand for our premium products is very strong with revenue up 17% over prior year, outperforming main cabin by 5 points. Domestic paid load factor in our first-class cabins was a record as we continue to advance our premium merchandising and upsell capabilities. Delta Premium Select has now been rolled out to over 85% of long-haul flights, and the revenue generation from this product has been above expectations and a key contributor to our record international margins.

市場對我們高階產品的需求非常強勁，營收較前一年成長17%，比主艙高出5個百分點。隨著我們不斷提升高階產品銷售和追加銷售能力，國內航線頭等艙付費客座率創下歷史新高。達美優選經濟艙（Delta Premium Select）現已覆蓋超過85%的長途航班，該產品的收入超出預期，並成為我們國際航線利潤率創歷史新高的關鍵因素。

Business travel continues to steadily improve as corporates continue with return-to-office initiatives. Less recovered sectors like technology and financial services saw a double-digit growth during the quarter. A recent corporate survey indicates continued growth in business demand with a significant majority of companies expecting their travel to stay the same or increase as we move into 4Q and into '24. SME and hybrid travelers are producing margins in line with corporate travelers and demand from these travel remains well above 2019 levels.

隨著企業繼續推動復工復產計劃，商務旅行持續穩步改善。科技和金融服務等復甦較慢的行業在本季度實現了兩位數成長。近期一項企業調查顯示，商務旅行需求持續成長，絕大多數公司預計，隨著第四季及2024年的到來，其差旅量將維持不變或成長。中小企業和混合型差旅的利潤率與企業差旅基本持平，而這些差旅的需求仍遠高於2019年的水準。

Total loyalty revenue was up 17% over prior year with continued strength in our American Express co-brand portfolio. Amex remuneration of $1.7 billion grew approximately 20% over prior year. We expect full year remuneration of close to $7 billion and are focused on reaching our long-term goal of $10 billion. Diversified revenue streams, including premium and loyalty have generated 55% of revenue year-to-date, reflecting Delta's differentiated positioning to the industry.

整體忠誠度營收較前一年成長17%，主要得益於美國運通聯名卡組合的持續強勁表現。美國運通的佣金收入達17億美元，較上年成長約20%。我們預計全年佣金收入將接近70億美元，並致力於實現100億美元的長期目標。多元化的收入來源，包括高端業務和忠誠度業務，已貢獻了年初至今55%的收入，體現了達美航空在行業中的差異化定位。

Turning to the December quarter, we expect total unit revenue to grow 9% to 12% over prior year, bringing our full year revenues to up 20% over prior year. This is at the high end of our guidance even with a few points less capacity than we had planned for the year, reflecting robust demand for the Delta product. Capacity in the fourth quarter is expected to be up 14% to 15%, implying total unit revenues down 2.5% to 4.5% versus prior year.

展望12月季度，我們預期總單位營收將年增9%至12%，使全年營收年增20%。即使產能略低於全年計劃，這一數字仍處於我們預期範圍的高端，反映出市場對達美航空產品的強勁需求。預計第四季產能將成長14%至15%，這意味著總單位營收將年減2.5%至4.5%。

Domestic and Transatlantic trends are expected to be consistent with the third quarter. Pacific and Latin America unit revenue trends are expected to be modest -- excuse me, expected to modestly decelerate given capacity growth related to China reopening and investment in our LATAM JV.

預計國內和跨大西洋業務的趨勢將與第三季保持一致。太平洋和拉丁美洲業務的收入趨勢預計較為溫和——更準確地說，鑑於中國重新開放帶來的產能增長以及對我們在拉丁美洲合資企業的投資，預計收入增長將略有放緩。

Domestic demand remains steady and initial bookings for the peak holiday periods are strong. The ongoing UAW and actor strikes are having a modest impact and we have incorporated those into our outlook. As we move through the fourth quarter, our domestic capacity growth moderates, and in the first quarter of 2024 we expect domestic capacity to be flat to slightly down year-over-year. We have reallocated capacity to international leisure where we are expecting strong returns and remain focused on fully restoring our higher-margin core hubs.

國內需求維持穩定，假日高峰期的首批預訂情況強勁。目前美國汽車工人聯合會（UAW）和演員罷工的影響有限，我們已將這些因素納入預期。隨著第四季的到來，國內運力成長放緩，預計2024年第一季國內運力將與去年同期持平或略有下降。我們已將部分運力重新分配至國際休閒旅遊市場，預計該市場將獲得豐厚回報，同時我們將繼續致力於全面恢復高利潤核心樞紐的運作。

On international, we are seeing continued demand strength through the winter. The Transatlantic remains very strong, driven by partner hubs and Southern European leisure traffic performance. We're closely monitoring the situation in Israel as we will evaluate restarting the flights as the situation stabilizes. In the Pacific, we expect to grow December quarter capacity 40% to 50% as we continue restoring the network. While this level of growth will impact unit revenue, we expect the new flying will be profit accretive. For the year, we remain confident in finishing strong with record profitability across all 3 international entities.

國際航線方面，冬季需求持續強勁。跨大西洋航線依然非常強勁，主要得益於合作夥伴樞紐和南歐休閒旅客的良好表現。我們正密切關注以色列的局勢，並將在局勢穩定後評估何時恢復航班。太平洋航線方面，隨著我們持續恢復航線網絡，預計12月季度運能將成長40%至50%。雖然這一成長幅度會影響單位收入，但我們預期新增航班將提升利潤。展望全年，我們仍然有信心在所有三個國際業務實體中實現創紀錄的利潤。

In closing, I'm proud of the revenue performance our teams have delivered, and I'm confident that our integrated commercial strategy will continue to drive industry-leading profitability.

最後，我對我們團隊的收入表現感到自豪，我相信，我們的一體化商業策略將繼續推動行業領先的獲利能力。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Dan to talk about the financials.

接下來，我將把發言權交給丹，讓他來談談財務狀況。

Thank you, Glen, and good morning to everyone. For the September quarter, we delivered earnings of $2.03 per share and operating margin of 13.5%. Nonfuel unit costs were up 1.3% year-over-year and fuel prices averaged $2.78 a gallon, including a refinery benefit of $0.11. We generated operating cash flow of $1.1 billion and we invested -- reinvested $1.4 billion into the business. Liquidity ended the quarter at $7.8 billion and adjusted net debt of $20.2 billion. Year-to-date, we've repaid $3.7 billion of gross debt. This is including $1.7 billion of accelerated repayments on our higher-cost debt.

謝謝格倫，大家早安。 9 月季度，我們每股收益為 2.03 美元，營業利潤率為 13.5%。非燃料單位成本年增 1.3%，燃料平均價格為每加侖 2.78 美元，其中包括煉油廠收益 0.11 美元。我們創造了 11 億美元的營運現金流，並對業務進行了 14 億美元的投資和再投資。季末流動資金為 78 億美元，調整後淨負債為 202 億美元。今年迄今為止，我們已償還 37 億美元的總債務，包括加速償還的 17 億美元高成本債務。

Our leverage ratio improved to 3x on a trailing 12-month basis. During the quarter, S&P upgraded our credit rating to BB+, 1 notch away from investment-grade, a recognition of our improving financial foundation. Our capital allocation priorities are reinvesting in the business and improving our balance sheet to investment-grade metrics with a modest cash return to shareholders through our dividend.

過去12個月，我們的槓桿率改善至3倍。本季度，標普將我們的信用評級上調至BB+，距離投資等級僅差一級，這反映了我們財務基礎的改善。我們的資本配置重點是再投資於業務發展，並將資產負債表改善至投資等級水平，同時透過分紅向股東提供適度的現金回報。

Now moving to guidance. For the December quarter, we expect nonfuel unit costs to be flat to up 2% on a year-over-year basis. With the exception of maintenance costs, our second half unit costs are progressing as expected. As we discussed in September, there are 3 drivers to higher maintenance: first, investment in fleet health; second, expanded work scope on our 757 engine fleet; and third, challenges across the supply chain.

現在來看業績指引。我們預計12月季度非燃料單位成本將與去年同期持平或成長2%。除維護成本外，下半年單位成本的進展符合預期。正如我們在9月份討論的那樣，維護成本上升主要有三個原因：首先，加大對機隊健康狀況的投入；其次，757發動機機隊的工作範圍擴大；第三，供應鏈面臨挑戰。

On fleet health and reliability, our investments are starting to deliver improved operational performance. Our September metrics were ahead of August and October is ahead of September. On the 757 engine, a workhorse in our fleet, we're going through a wave of overhauls. The engines we took off-wing over the summer required larger work scope and a higher mix of new parts. Looking forward, we are forecasting higher new material consumption rates.

在機隊健康狀況和可靠性方面，我們的投資已開始帶來營運績效的提升。 9 月份的各項指標均優於 8 月份，10 月份又優於 9 月份。作為機隊主力機型的 757 發動機，我們正進行一波大修。夏季期間拆卸下來的引擎需要更大的維修範圍和更高比例的新零件。展望未來，我們預期新材料的消耗量將會更高。

On supply chain, the industry continues to face challenges that will take time to work through. Engine and airframe turnaround times remain elevated, driving inefficiency and impacting productivity. We are working closely with our partners and leveraging our deep expertise in TechOps to manage supply chain challenges.

在供應鏈方面，產業持續面臨許多挑戰，需要時間才能克服。引擎和機身的周轉時間仍然過長，導致效率低下並影響生產力。我們正與合作夥伴緊密合作，並利用我們在技術營運方面的深厚專業知識來應對供應鏈挑戰。

Delta has a long heritage of industry-leading operational performance, driven by the best TechOps capability in the industry. Operational excellence is central to our brand promise and a key pacing item to drive out inefficiencies.

達美航空擁有業界領先的營運績效，這得益於其業界頂尖的技術營運能力。卓越營運是我們品牌承諾的核心，也是我們消除低效環節的關鍵驅動因素。

Moving to fuel. Fuel prices have moved higher since July, adding roughly $400 million of expense to our outlook for the second half of the year. We expect December fuel prices to be $2.90 to $3.20 per gallon, with the refinery expected to be roughly breakeven for the quarter. The refinery turnaround is progressing as we planned and we expect production to resume in mid-November. Based on our December quarter outlook for revenue and costs, we expect earnings of $1.05 to $1.30 per share on a 9% to 11% operating margin. This brings our full year outlook to earnings to $6 to $6.25 per share on double-digit operating margin and free cash flow of $2 billion. We are focused on finishing the year strong. We remain committed to delivering industry-leading margin performance, earnings growth and strong cash generation.

接下來談談燃油方面。自7月以來，燃油價格持續上漲，導致我們對下半年的預期支出增加了約4億美元。我們預計12月份燃油價格為每加侖2.90美元至3.20美元，煉油廠預計本季將基本達到損益兩平。煉油廠的檢修工作正按計畫進行，預計11月中旬恢復生產。基於我們對12月份季度營收和成本的預期，我們預期每股收益為1.05美元至1.30美元，營業利潤率為9%至11%。這將使我們對全年每股收益的預期達到6美元至6.25美元，營業利潤率達到兩位數，自由現金流預計為20億美元。我們致力於在年底前取得強勁的業績。我們將繼續致力於實現領先業界的利潤率、獲利成長和強勁的現金流。

As we progress through the 2024 planning process, our focus is shifting from restoration to optimization. Over the last 2 years, we've grown at an unprecedented rate for an airline of our size to restore our network. Growth is normalizing next year, and we expect operational reliability to continue to improve. This will allow us to optimize how we run the airline, reducing operational buffers and driving out inefficiencies that have resulted from the intensity of the rebuild.

隨著2024年規劃工作的推進，我們的工作重點正從恢復營運轉向優化營運。過去兩年，為了恢復航線網絡，我們以前所未有的速度發展壯大，這對我們這樣規模的航空公司而言實屬罕見。預計明年成長將趨於正常，營運可靠性也將持續提升。這將使我們能夠優化航空公司的營運模式，減少營運緩衝，並消除重建過程中因高強度營運而導致的效率低下問題。

Our capacity growth for 2024 will be focused on Delta's areas of strength. Domestically, we are prioritizing our core high-margin hubs, driving connectivity and gauge. Internationally, we are leveraging our best-in-class JV partnerships and increasing the mix of flying on next-generation aircraft. We are executing against the strategy and financial objectives we laid out at our Investor Day with an emphasis on free cash flow, earnings durability and capital efficiency.

2024年，達美航空的運力成長將重點放在其優勢領域。在國內航線方面，我們將優先發展核心高利潤樞紐，提升航線網路連結性和效率。在國際航線方面，我們將充分利用一流的合資夥伴關係，並增加新一代飛機的運能比例。我們將嚴格執行在投資者日上製定的策略和財務目標，並專注於自由現金流、獲利能力和資本效率。

In closing, Delta is well positioned to maintain industry leadership operationally and financially. I'd like to sincerely thank the Delta people for everything they do every day.

最後，我要說，達美航空在營運和財務方面都處於領先地位，完全有能力繼續保持行業領先地位。我衷心感謝達美航空全體員工每天的辛勤工作。

With that, I'll turn it back to Julie for Q&A.

接下來，我會把問答環節交給茱莉。

Thanks, Dan. Matthew, can you please remind the analysts how to queue up for a question?

謝謝，丹。馬修，你能提醒一下分析師如何排隊提問嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Your first question is coming from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

你的第一個問題來自摩根大通的傑米貝克。

So Dan, expanding on some of your engine comments, we're obviously focused on the GTF situation. I realize you're not -- or at least I don't believe you're directly impacted with any groundings right now. I'm just trying to square the situation against your MRO and your GTF in-house expertise. And is there a scenario where the Pratt mess ends up benefiting Delta? Or should we think more about simply reducing the downside relative to some of your peers? Also, how does this impact the maintenance cost guide embedded in your 2024 CASM expectations?

丹，關於你之前提到的引擎問題，我們目前顯然關注的是GTF的情況。我知道你目前的情況並非如此——至少我認為你現在還沒有受到任何停飛的直接影響。我只是想把這種情況與你的MRO（維護、修理和大修）以及GTF的內部專業技術做比較。普惠公司的困境最終是否有可能對達美航空有利？或者我們應該多考慮如何降低相對於其他同業的損失？另外，這會對你2024年CASM（每英里可用運力）預期中包含的維護成本指南產生什麼影響？

Maybe first start with the Geared Turbofan as it relates more directly to our fleet, both on the neo, we took our deliveries later so the impact will be modest to minimal. If there are any inspections or things off-wing, it will be in the latter half of 2024 based on the analysis that we've gotten so far from Pratt. We're still waiting on the full analysis related to the 220 fleet. That should be coming later this month and we will assess that impact appropriately.

或許可以先從齒輪傳動渦輪扇發動機入手，因為它與我們的機隊關係更為直接。無論是neo系列飛機，由於我們交付時間較晚，因此影響應該不大。根據普惠公司目前提供的分析，如果出現任何檢查或非機翼相關問題，預計將在2024年下半年進行。我們仍在等待針對220系列飛機的完整分析報告，該報告應該會在本月稍後出爐，屆時我們將對相關影響進行評估。

As it relates to MRO, Pratt is certainly a close partner of ours and an important one as it relates to that third-party capability. And we will certainly support their efforts. We're working closely with them on that. We have capacity that ultimately comes down to the allocation of capacity and availability of material to do the work, but we'll be working with them through fall and into next year on that.

就MRO（維修、維修和大修）而言，普惠公司無疑是我們的緊密合作夥伴，也是第三方能力的重要力量。我們一定會全力支持他們的工作，並與他們密切合作。我們的能力最終取決於產能分配和物料供應情況，但我們會與他們持續合作，直到明年秋季。

Okay, that's helpful. And then for Glen, I've asked about this before. A lot of Delta customers obviously took fairly lavish European vacations this year. You have SkyMiles data on these folks. What's the correlation between big summer spenders and big winter spenders? What's that, I don't know, sort of SkyMiles Venn diagram look like? Because what I'm wondering about is the potential for people scaling back on their winter trips because they've spent lavishly on their summer holidays. Any actual data you can share on that?

好的，這很有幫助。至於格倫，我之前也問過這個問題。今年很多達美航空的乘客顯然都去了歐洲度假，而且花費不菲。你們有這些乘客的哩程積分數據。那麼，夏季消費大戶和冬季消費大戶之間有什麼關聯呢？或者說，里程積分的維恩圖是什麼樣的？因為我好奇的是，人們會不會因為夏季假期而花費太多，而減少冬季的旅行預算。你們能分享一些相關的實際數據嗎？

Sure. I think what we're really excited about is the lengthening of the European travel season. And that has really gone from primarily ending in the summer IATA season, which would be October. Now through November, through the holidays, through the New Year and really now we're only talking about a 6- to 8-week period that are the doldrums for Europe. So the bookings, which most people wouldn't have expected, of course, we reduced our schedule in the fall and the winter IATA season. But our year-over-year comps are actually accelerating into the winter as we look into November, December and January.

當然。我們真正感到興奮的是歐洲旅遊旺季的延長。以前歐洲旅遊旺季主要在夏季國際航空運輸協會（IATA）航季結束，也就是10月。現在，旅遊旺季一直延續到11月、假期、新年，事實上，歐洲旅遊淡季只有短短6到8週。所以，預訂量出現了大多數人意想不到的變化。當然，我們在秋季和冬季IATA航季減少了航班。但隨著我們展望11月、12月和1月，我們的年比預訂量實際上正在加速成長。

So I think we're seeing that continuing into the fall and early parts of winter and we're very excited about that. And we've also, of course, expanded into a lot more Latin leisure this winter than we did last winter, and the advanced demand for that seems very, very robust. So leisure is still very strong and even through shoulder and off-peak periods.

所以我認為這種趨勢會延續到秋季和初冬，我們對此感到非常興奮。當然，今年冬天我們也比去年冬天大幅拓展了拉丁美洲休閒旅遊業務，這方面的預售需求似乎非常強勁。因此，休閒旅遊市場依然非常活躍，即使在淡季和過渡期也是如此。

Your next question is coming from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

If I may, Glen, just your comment about domestic capacity being flat to down in the first quarter. I was just wondering if that was a decent trend for the full year, or if it was related to also -- in the last year the way first quarter's kind of turned out wasn't what you expected and you were going to make some capacity changes? So is that related to that as well? Or is it more kind of weakness that you're seeing recently or maybe strength in international on a relative basis?

格倫，如果可以的話，我想問一下你之前提到的第一季國內產能持平甚至下降的情況。我想知道這是否是全年的良好趨勢，或者是否也與去年第一季的情況有關——當時你們並沒有預料到會進行一些產能調整？所以這是否也與此有關？或者這更多是你近期觀察到的一種疲軟態勢，還是說國際市場相對而言比較強勁？

It's really a reshaping of the demand patterns that we saw last year. And no shock, January and February are not in the northern tier transcon to East-West markets, barnburner market, so reallocating those to warmer and sunnier places. So our total capacity will be up. Domestic capacity will be down slightly. Core hubs will actually be up with more emphasis on warm and sunny places in Latin America and South Pacific. So that's kind of how we're profiling and really optimization of the demand patterns we saw last year going into this winter.

這其實是去年需求模式的重塑。不出所料，1月和2月並非北方跨大陸至東西市場的旺季，因此我們將這些運力重新分配到更溫暖、陽光更充足的地區。所以我們的總運力將會增加。國內運力會略有下降。核心樞紐的運能實際上會增加，我們將更加重視拉丁美洲和南太平洋地區溫暖陽光充足的地區。這就是我們調整和優化去年冬季需求模式的方式。

That makes sense. And if I may also just on domestic revenue, you've been stable at Delta since kind of June. I was wondering how much of the contribution you're getting from restoring your hubs and separately perhaps, the domestic portion of international trips, given what you've talked about is the strength kind of continuing in transatlantic longer than kind of historic? The reason I ask is it seems that stable comment is a little bit different than maybe what we're hearing from kind of the purely domestic airlines.

這很有道理。如果可以的話，我想單獨談談國內收入，達美航空自六月以來一直保持穩定。我想知道，您恢復樞紐航班後的收入貢獻有多大？另外，考慮到您之前提到的情況，國際航班中的國內部分收入又佔多大比例？跨大西洋航線的強勁勢頭是否會持續更長時間？我這麼問是因為，您所說的「穩定」似乎與我們從其他純粹的國內航空公司聽到的說法略有不同。

Right, right. I think what domestic strength is really coming from the premium products domestically. And I'm not going to speak for the other carriers. They all have coming in the next few weeks. But it really hasn't been on domestic portion of international journey, which is de minimis in terms of the variance to what it was last year. Our employments to -- in the transatlantic are up low double digits, but that only represents 13% of our total travel, so really a de minimis impact to domestic.

沒錯，沒錯。我認為國內航線的強勁成長主要來自國內高端產品。我不能代表其他航空公司發言，他們未來幾週都會推出新產品。但真正推動成長的並非國際航線中的國內部分，這部分與去年同期相比變化微乎其微。跨大西洋航線的就業人數增加了兩位數，但這僅占我們總客運量的13%，因此對國內航線的影響微乎其微。

So it's really coming from the premium products. And they're doing quite well, as I mentioned. Domestic paid first-class load factors are reaching new heights every month. So very excited about those demand trends. And I think that reinforces the strategy we've been working on for the last 10 years to have a differentiated product.

所以，成長主要來自高端產品。正如我之前提到的，它們的表現相當出色。國內付費頭等艙的客座率每月都在創下新高。我對這些需求趨勢感到非常興奮。我認為這進一步鞏固了我們過去十年一直在推行的差異化產品策略。

Your next question is coming from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

Ed, in the prepared remarks, I think you touched on fuel recapture. Right now, there doesn't seem to be much of an adjustment on the capacity side from some of your indices participants despite, like, erratic fuel. So just trying to understand if there's a new calculus to how you're approaching fuel recapture right now in the current market.

艾德，在事先準備好的演講稿中，我想你提到了燃料回收。目前，儘管燃料供應不穩定，但你的一些指數參與者似乎並沒有對產能方面做出太多調整。所以我想了解一下，在目前的市場環境下，你對燃料回收的處理方式是否有新的考量。

Well, obviously, fuel moved an awful lot within just the last couple of months. And it's the volatility of fuel that really hits us hard as compared to the ability to recapture it. I think traditionally, we've seen over a 2- to 3-quarter rise. We have a pretty good success rate at recapturing it. And when you think about the strength of the demand environment and the fact that across the board, everyone's not just fuel costs are up, but labor rates are increasing and other inflationary pressure, supply chain and maintenance costs are up.

顯然，過去幾個月燃油價格波動劇烈。燃油價格的波動性對我們造成的衝擊遠大於我們重新掌控價格的能力。通常情況下，燃油價格會持續上漲兩到三個季度。我們重新掌控價格的能力相當不錯。但考慮到當前強勁的需求環境，以及各行各業成本的普遍上漲——不僅是燃油成本，還有勞動力成本和其他通膨壓力，供應鏈和維護成本也在上升——情況就更加複雜了。

Everyone has a similar incentive to continue to be able to recalibrate those pricing -- those market pressures into pricing. So my outlook is I'm optimistic as we're going into '24. Glen can add his own color there.

每個人都有類似的動力不斷調整價格——將市場壓力轉化為價格。所以我對2024年的前景持樂觀態度。格倫可以就此發表他的看法。

No, I think you mentioned it really well. It takes time. And when we have rapid fuel price run-ups, it usually takes a few quarters for that to roll into the industry realized fares. But historically, it's always worked. So we're looking at history to predict the future, but that's what the history would tell you.

不，我覺得你解釋得很清楚。這需要時間。當燃油價格快速上漲時，通常需要幾個季度才能反映到行業實際票價中。但從歷史來看，這種方法一直都很有效。所以我們透過歷史來預測未來，而歷史也正是告訴我們這一點。

Okay, appreciate that. And then Dan, just back to the maintenance costs and operational investments. Just trying to understand -- I know you touched on it in Jamie's question but just trying to understand how it plays out. Are you basically assuming that maintenance and operational investments will be elevated in the first half? And then how does that roll off? And then when do the productivity gains that you've talked about in the past kind of kick in? I'm just trying to understand how that -- the moving parts are changing a little bit right now.

好的，謝謝。丹，我們再回到維護成本和營運投資的問題上。我只是想弄清楚——我知道你在回答傑米的問題時已經提到了，但我還是想了解一下具體情況。你是不是假設維護和營運投資在上半年會比較高？然後情況會如何改變？你之前提到的生產力提升什麼時候才能真正發揮作用？我只是想弄清楚，現在情況正在發生一些變化。

Yes, certainly talked about it. We're in the middle of -- Conor, thank you. We're in the middle of the '24 planning process. When you think about maintenance, as Ed talked about, it is a foundational item as it relates to our operational reliability and the investments that we're making here were related to fleet help and the work that we're doing on our engines, we're going to stay after here. And that will be with us at least into the first half of next year, and we want to drive that operational reliability.

是的，我們當然討論過這個問題。我們正在進行中——康納，謝謝。我們正在進行2024年的規劃工作。正如艾德所說，維護保養是關乎我們營運可靠性的基礎性因素，我們在這裡的投資都與機隊維護和引擎維護有關，這些工作我們之後還會繼續進行。至少到明年上半年，我們希望能提高營運可靠性。

The second part of that is, as you get that operational reliability, that is really what creates the foundation to be able to start to optimize and unlock the cost investment and inefficiencies that we talked back about at Investor Day, that $1 billion-plus. And as you see that operational liability continue to improve, our teams will be able to lean more and more into getting those investment buffers out, those inefficiencies that are in every part of our operation. And our teams are working through that as they're building out their operating plan and financial plan for 2024.

第二點是，隨著營運可靠性的提升，這才是真正奠定基礎的關鍵，使我們能夠開始優化並釋放我們在投資者日討論過的超過10億美元的成本投資和效率低下問題。隨著營運負債的持續改善，我們的團隊將能夠更加專注於消除投資緩衝，以及營運各環節中存在的效率低下問題。我們的團隊正在製定2024年的營運計劃和財務計劃，並著手解決這些問題。

Your next question is coming from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Just on the maintenance investment, a follow-up to maybe Jamie's question there. Is this at all a reflection of your thoughts on future aircraft delivery constraints? In other words, were you always thinking about using those 75s next year? And then just generally, how do you think about and measure returns on capital for investing in something like 757 versus going out and buying new?

關於維護投資，我想補充Jamie剛才提出的問題。這是否反映了您對未來飛機交付限制的考慮？換句話說，您是否一直計劃明年繼續使用這些75飛機？另外，您通常如何看待並衡量投資757這類飛機與直接購買新飛機相比的資本報酬率？

Yes. Glen can chime in here, too. I think the 757 has been a fleet as we've gone through our restoration that we've characterized as a flexible fleet, and it's one that it's certainly a workhorse. The returns are very good related to how we deploy it and fly it within our network. So we have leaned on it. When you think back of where we might have been 18, 24 months ago, the number that we're flying, we have reactivated more as we continue to see new delivery slide and we get recalibrated year-to-year. So it is one that we've leaned into.

是的。格倫也可以補充一下。我認為，在我們整個機隊重建過程中，757 一直是我們視為一支靈活機隊的機型，而且它無疑是一支主力機型。根據我們在航線網路中的部署和運作方式，它的收益非常可觀。因此，我們一直非常依賴它。回想一下 18 到 24 個月前的情況，我們現在的飛行數量與此相比，隨著新交付量的持續下滑以及我們每年的調整，我們已經重新啟用了更多 757 機型。所以，我們一直在大力發展這支機隊。

And it's one that we'll be flexible on as we work through the next 3, 4, 5 years in regards to how we deploy it. The wave of overhauls that we started last year and we're doing this year and we'll have the same next year, but that gets us through a heavy wave that then allows us really very viable engines that the Delta team has always been very good at managing the end of life of an asset.

在未來三到五年內，我們將靈活調整部署方式。去年我們啟動了一系列大修項目，今年仍在進行，明年也將繼續，這些項目幫助我們度過了難關，從而使我們能夠擁有真正可靠的引擎。達美航空團隊一直非常擅長資產報廢管理。

We did it on the 90s, 88s in regards to how you manage those assets and deploy them but also get the most out of them, whether it's in whole or in the parts and how they're redeployed back in the stream. And we are always working closely then with fleet and maintenance with Glen team on how to deploy them and get the best returns for them. But those are good returning -- it's a great workhorse for our fleet with good returns.

我們在90年代和88年代就採取了措施，包括如何管理和部署這些資產，以及如何最大限度地利用它們，無論是整體還是部件，以及如何將它們重新投入運作。我們始終與Glen團隊的船隊和維修部門緊密合作，探討如何部署這些資產並獲得最佳回報。這些資產的回報非常可觀——它們是我們船隊的得力助手，能帶來豐厚的回報。

Nothing to add other than we took a lot of late deliveries. I think our last 75 was produced -- we had the last one ever built. So some of these planes are not that old, and we have them in our fleet, and we have -- but as you said, as we get to the end of life of these towards the end of this decade, we'll be able to really start harvesting the engines, which will really improve the maintenance profile of the fleet.

沒什麼要補充的，只是我們收到了很多延遲交付的飛機。我想我們最後一批75型飛機——我們擁有的是最後一架。所以這些飛機有些其實並不算老舊，而且我們機隊裡也有它們——但正如你所說，隨著這些飛機在本十年末期接近使用壽命終點，我們將能夠真正開始拆解發動機，這將大大改善機隊的維護狀況。

And Duane, this is Ed, if I could add my perspective. Your point is right. It is related to the OEMs fundamentally. Their inability to produce engines on time, which they're having their own challenges within the supply chain as well as parts on time. And the one thing that has been a core part of Delta's strength over at TechOps is our ability to go into the used repair market and acquire assets and repurpose them towards our own needs. That market has largely dried up, given all the large rebound in flight activity, which was running at the same time the OEMs have been having struggling to produce new.

杜安，我是艾德，如果我可以補充我的看法的話。你的觀點是對的。這從根本上來說與原始設備製造商（OEM）有關。他們無法按時生產發動機，這不僅源於他們自身供應鏈的挑戰，也源於零件的供應問題。而達美航空技術營運部門的核心優勢之一，就是我們能夠進入二手維修市場，收購資產並將其改造以滿足自身需求。但隨著航空活動的強勁反彈，這個市場已經基本萎縮，而同時，原始設備製造商卻在努力生產新產品。

So I think this is something you're going to see across the industry. This isn't just at Delta. And it's one of the constraints we talked about at Investor Day. That's going to keep us all pretty limited in the amount of capacity that we can produce. But I'd put my money on the Delta TechOps team because they're the best in the business and we'll figure this out. And we know this is a -- while it may hit the expense line, we know this is a long-term asset that's going to pay dividends for years to come.

所以我認為這是整個產業都會面臨的問題，並非達美航空獨有。這也是我們在投資者日上討論的限制因素之一。這將極大地限制我們目前的產能。但我相信達美航空的技術營運團隊，因為他們是業界最優秀的，我們一定能解決這個問題。我們知道，雖然這可能會增加開支，但這是一項長期資產，將在未來幾年持續帶來收益。

Appreciate those thoughts. And maybe just for my follow-up on Pacific and Glen, can you just remind us where we are in China reopen? I think there's another round of expansion here in November. And then just broadly in Pacific, what are the markets away from China that you're excited about?

感謝您的想法。關於Pacific和Glen，我想再跟進一下，您能否提醒我們一下中國市場重啟的進展？我記得11月會有新一輪的擴張。另外，就Pacific而言，您對中國以外的哪些市場比較看好？

Well, I think what we're very excited about is the success of our Incheon hub with Korean, and that has really even exceeded our expectations. We think it's the best place to connect to get to Southeast Asia from any one of our hubs or as a double connect. So really trying to leverage that, and we'll have some announcements on continuing to work to increase our capacity next year. But that's really been a lynchpin.

嗯，我們最興奮的是仁川樞紐與大韓航空合作的成功，這甚至超出了我們的預期。我們認為，從我們任何一個樞紐前往東南亞，或作為雙程轉機，仁川都是最佳選擇。所以我們正在努力充分利用這項優勢，明年我們將宣布一些關於繼續提升運能的計畫。仁川樞紐確實發揮了關鍵作用。

South Pacific has been a really great surprise for us. The demand there really in tune with that same high demand for leisure destinations. So that's been doing very well as well as Japan. As you know, Japan was closed for a couple of years and our Japanese franchise is doing quite well. So you put the Pacific together, and if you recall, for years, we were telling our investors to hold on. We've got this restructuring coming. We had the wrong airplanes. We were at the wrong airports. And it took us many years to get to where we wanted to be. But we're finally there and we're producing great returns in the Pacific, and we're excited about our opportunities moving forward.

南太平洋地區的表現著實讓我們驚喜。那裡的需求與休閒旅遊目的地的高需求完全吻合。因此，南太平洋地區和日本市場都發展得非常出色。眾所周知，日本市場曾關閉了幾年，但我們在日本的業務目前運作良好。至於太平洋地區，如果您還記得的話，多年來我們一直告訴投資者要耐心等待，因為我們即將進行重組。我們之前的飛機型號不對，機場選址也不合適。我們花了多年時間才達到目標。但現在我們終於實現了目標，在太平洋地區也獲得了豐厚的回報，我們對未來的發展機會充滿信心。

Appreciate the detailed thoughts.

感謝您詳盡的思考。

China, I didn't say -- China, of course. We went from essentially double daily in Detroit -- double weekly, I'm sorry, in Detroit and Seattle to 10x a week, with Seattle moving to daily and Detroit moving to 3x. So -- and we'll see if there's another wave of this. I think the first thing we have to see is, is there demand for the capacity that's going into market right now? And we'll keep you abreast of that as we move forward on China reopening.

我沒說中國──當然是指中國。底特律和西雅圖的班次從每週兩班增加到每週十班，西雅圖恢復到每天一班，底特律恢復到每週三班。所以——我們拭目以待，看看是否會出現新一波疫情。我認為我們首先要看的是，目前市場上新增的運力是否有需求？隨著中國重新開放的進展，我們會及時向您報告最新情況。

Your next question is coming from Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·迪多拉。

Ed, a couple of questions. I just kind of want to bring it back to some things discussed at Investor Day. I guess maybe first, just on capacity growth. I know you gave us a little color about how you're thinking about 1Q kind of domestic versus international. But the mid-single-digit growth that you talked about in 2024. I guess in this fuel environment, would you consider that growth rate as reasonable or aspirational at this point in time?

艾德，我有幾個問題。我想回到投資者日討論的一些主題。首先，關於產能成長。我知道您之前簡要介紹了您對第一季國內和國際市場的看法。您提到2024年將實現個位數中段的成長。在目前的燃料市場環境下，您認為這個成長率在目前階段是合理的還是只是一個目標？

Well, it's probably more a question for Glen than myself. But at my level, as I just said in my last comments, I hear -- my sense would be any capacity that you hear from us in terms of plans or the industry, you should read as somewhat aspirational because there still are tremendous constraints in the marketplace in terms of delivering that growth.

嗯，這個問題或許更該問格倫，而不是我。但就我而言，正如我剛才所說，我的感覺是，我們所說的任何關於計劃或行業發展的能力，都應該被視為一種願景，因為在實現這種增長方面，市場仍然存在巨大的限制因素。

If all goes well and we get all the parts and we get the planes on time, and we have the labor ready and ATC is not an issue and fuel prices stay reasonable, yes, that's what's going to happen. But if you look over the last 2 to 3 years, we continue to evolve it. So those are just points in time estimates as to what we could do. As to what we actually will be able to do, I think we'll probably across the board to be a little less than that.

如果一切順利，所有零件都能及時到位，飛機也能按時交付，勞動力也已到位，空中交通管制不成問題，燃油價格也保持在合理範圍內，那麼是的，這確實會發生。但回顧過去兩三年，我們一直在不斷改進。所以這些只是我們未來能力的預估。至於我們實際上能夠做到什麼程度，我認為整體而言可能會略低於這個預估。

And I would just add a comment. About half of that is run rate of what's in there as we enter the first quarter of next year. So the real number is half of low single digits, which is very low single digits.

我還要補充一點。這個數字的一半左右是明年第一季目前的運行率。所以實際數字是低個位數的一半，也就是非常低的個位數。

Yes. Got it. Makes sense. And then I guess, Dan, just on cost and CASM next year. Obviously, with capacity moving around, obviously, the maintenance costs continuing into next year. Can you just give us a sense of your level of confidence in 2024 CASM-Ex being able to be down kind of low single digits? Or should we think about that differently as well?

是的，明白了，有道理。然後，丹，我想就明年的成本和CASM（每平方米可用庫存成本）說一下。顯然，由於產能調整，維護成本也會延續到明年。您能否大致談談您對2024年CASM-Ex（每平方公尺可用庫存成本）能否下降到個位數低點的信心程度？或者我們應該從另一個角度來考慮這個問題？

As I mentioned earlier, we're still in the middle of our planning process. So all these pieces are coming together, right, capacity, along with all the things that we've talked about regarding the maintenance, we're spending certainly a lot more time on that, given all the moving pieces in the industry and elements that we talked about.

正如我之前提到的，我們仍處於規劃過程的中期。所以所有這些環節都在逐步整合，對吧？產能，以及我們之前討論過的所有關於維護方面的問題，考慮到行業內各種變數和我們之前提到的因素，我們肯定會在這方面投入更多的時間。

Yes. Dan's comments earlier about this is going to be a pivot to optimization is a big deal. And maintenance is a part of that. Maintenance unlocks the ability to drive the efficiencies across the enterprise. And we're right in the middle of the planning process. So we're not trying to dodge your question. We will give you, at the typical time at the start of the year, what we think we can do.

是的。丹之前提到的「這將是一次向優化轉型」意義重大，而維護是其中的重要組成部分。維護能夠提升整個企業的效率。我們目前正處於規劃流程的關鍵階段，所以我們並非有意迴避您的問題。我們會在年初的慣例時間，向您報告我們認為可以採取的措施。

Your next question is coming from Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

Ed, on CNBC this morning, you called out a pickup in corporate bookings. Could we just dig into that a little bit more? What have you seen since Labor Day on volumes or revenue from corporate? Any industries or regions that are bigger drivers or it's really across the board? And anything on maybe corporate booking windows today versus maybe a couple of months ago and they're still longer than pre COVID, I appreciate it.

艾德，你今天早上在CNBC節目中提到企業預訂量有所回升。我們能否更深入地探討一下？自勞動節以來，企業預訂量或收入有何變化？哪些行業或地區是主要驅動因素，還是所有行業都在成長？另外，與幾個月前相比，目前的企業預訂窗口期有何變化？目前仍比疫情前更長。非常感謝。

Well, we said on the last call that we anticipated post Labor Day that we'd see volumes of corporate travel pick up. And indeed, we're seeing that. I think Glen mentioned a couple of sectors. The tech sector and the financial services sector is areas that we're seeing double-digit growth. We have, I'd say across the board, we're seeing increases. And it's -- corporate travel as it's come back, it comes back and then plateaus, comes back and plateaus. And I think you'll see another wave of return. I think a lot of it's being driven by the return to office and getting into the new normal work patterns, which many companies are still sorting out for themselves.

我們在上次電話會議上說過，預計勞動節後企業差旅量會大幅回升。事實上，我們已經看到了這種趨勢。我想格倫提到了幾個行業。科技業和金融服務業都實現了兩位數的成長。可以說，所有行業的差旅量都在增加。企業差旅量一直在復甦，然後趨於平穩，如此反覆。我認為還會出現新一輪的復甦。這很大程度上是由於員工重返辦公室，並逐漸適應新的工作模式，而許多公司仍在摸索和調整這些模式。

But it's healthy to see and it's one of the distinguishing factors between us and some of the carriers that are on the other end of the fare spectrum. So one of the many differentiating factors that is enabling us to grow revenues at the pace we are.

但這種趨勢是健康的，也是我們與一些票價體系另一端的航空公司之間的區別。因此，這也是我們能夠以如此快的速度實現收入成長的眾多差異化因素之一。

Makes a lot of sense. And then 1, maybe this is for Dan. Can you just speak to how the air traffic liability is trending year-to-date into the fourth quarter versus your expectations at the start of the year? I know we kicked off the year with really strong first quarter performance on that ETL build. Should we be aware of any impact from normalization of booking windows versus last year, just given the pickup in corporate volume you're seeing?

很有道理。還有，這個問題可能是問丹的。您能否談談今年迄今為止（進入第四季度）的航空運輸負債情況，與您年初的預期相比如何？我知道我們在第一季 ETL 建置方面表現非常強勁。鑑於您觀察到的企業業務量有所增長，我們是否應該注意預訂窗口正常化（與去年相比）可能產生的影響？

No, I'd say it's performing as we expected. We're starting to maybe get back to a little bit more of the traditional seasonality. As we were restoring, it was a little bit different. And if you look at historical patterns, you're only down mid-teens as you go through into the fourth quarter, and that's kind of what we saw as we wrapped up the third quarter here. And so no, the other element that you have in there is you certainly have -- we've had very friendly policies as it relates to credits, and customers have gotten really used to using them. .

不，我認為它的表現符合預期。我們或許正逐漸恢復到更傳統的季節性規律。在恢復期，情況略有不同。如果你回顧歷史數據，你會發現，進入第四季後，銷售額只會下降十幾個百分點，這與我們第三季末的情況大致相同。所以，另一個需要考慮的因素是──我們一直奉行非常友善的積分政策，而客戶已經非常習慣使用這些積分了。

And we think that's obviously long-term beneficial that people have confidence to book and travel but also consume when they don't travel. And those, we've seen very consistent issuance and usage rates on them.

我們認為，人們有信心預訂和出行，即使不出行也能消費，這顯然是長遠來看有益的。而且，我們已經看到這些信用卡的發行量和使用率都非常穩定。

Your next question is coming from Mike Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的麥克‧林恩伯格。

Glen, you called out a couple of sectors that were underperforming from a corporate perspective. I mean, I think of any carrier probably the most indexed to the automotive sector and then sort of the media sector with the writers' and actors' strike. What sort of drag do you actually think that had on your corporates, at least in the month of September and maybe what you're seeing right now?

格倫，你提到了幾個從公司層級來看表現不佳的行業。我的意思是，我認為任何一家公司最可能受到汽車行業和媒體行業（尤其是編劇和演員罷工）的影響。你認為這些因素對你們公司的表現造成了多大拖累？至少在9月是這樣，或許現在也是？

Well, clearly, I'll start with Los Angeles and the entertainment production strikes that are ongoing. That has had a not insignificant change in the business travel to and from Los Angeles, as well as now the UAW strike, which has curtailed a significant amount of the business in Detroit. As you point out, we're very big in both of those sectors. And what I'm really encouraged about is despite those 2 kind of being things that we should look forward to as positives next year, that our total corporate revenues are still accelerating.

顯然，我先從洛杉磯和正在進行的娛樂製作罷工說起。這已經對往返洛杉磯的商務旅行產生了相當大的影響，再加上現在的美國汽車工人聯合會（UAW）罷工，也大幅削減了底特律的業務。正如您所指出的，我們在這兩個領域都佔有非常重要的地位。真正讓我感到鼓舞的是，儘管這兩件事可能會對明年產生正面影響，但我們公司的總收入仍在加速成長。

So despite those 2 being a drag on them, and I think hopefully, those are both resolves fairly quickly here and we can get back to a normal business level. But you are right, spot on, that we are probably the most impacted by those 2 sectors.

所以，儘管這兩個問題對他們造成了拖累，但我希望這兩個問題都能很快解決，我們也能恢復到正常的業務水準。你說得對，我們可能是受這兩個產業影響最大的。

Great. And then just a quick one to Dan or Ed. I didn't see in the release a reiteration of the $7-plus for 2024. I know you're still mid-budget, but just based on the trajectory and everything you're seeing now, that number is still fine?

太好了。還有個問題想問丹或艾德。我在新聞稿裡沒看到關於2024年7美元以上的預算的重申。我知道你們的預算還在中等水平，但就目前的進展和所有情況來看，現在這個數字還合適嗎？

That's our plan, Mike. As I mentioned that we gave that guide in December of 2021, as long as free cash and others and we're on track.

這就是我們的計劃，麥克。正如我之前提到的，我們在2021年12月發布了那份指南，只要資金和其他資源到位，我們就能按計畫進行。

Your next question is coming from Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克爾。

Glen, I'm probably going to ask Jamie's initial SkyMiles data mining question in a different way. And based on data that you have, do you have any evidence that traditional domestic travelers have been flying internationally more often in 2023, maybe people doing their first or kind of rare international trips. Just trying to see if there's any truth or data to back up the thesis that there has been substitution of domestic with people flying internationally this year.

Glen，我可能會換個方式問Jamie最初關於SkyMiles資料探勘的問題。根據你掌握的數據，你是否有任何證據表明，2023年傳統的國內旅客更多地選擇國際航班，例如進行首次或比較少見的國際旅行？我只是想看看是否有任何事實或數據支持「今年國內航班被國際航班取代」這一論點。

Well, I'd say that's a very broad question, and clearly, there's been an expansion of international. But if you think about domestic and the volume differential between the number of seats we have every day domestically and the number of seats we have every day to Europe, it would be very hard to track those incremental visits back to people who did not fly domestically because it's such a small piece of domestic travel in terms of total volumes. And so while clearly, the spend has been very robust for long-haul in general, we have not seen a diminishing of short-haul leisure.

嗯，我認為這是一個非常廣泛的問題，國際旅遊顯然有所成長。但如果你考慮國內旅遊，以及我們每天國內航班座位數和飛往歐洲的航班座位數之間的差異，就很難將這些新增的國內遊客歸因於那些沒有乘坐國內航班的人，因為就國內旅遊總量而言，國內航班所佔比例很小。因此，雖然長途旅遊的消費總體上非常強勁，但我們並沒有看到短途休閒旅遊的減少。

Got it. That's really helpful. And maybe as a follow-up, kind of feels like Transpacific has not quite been the explosion of pent-up demand that we saw in domestic and Transatlantic when they initially opened, but it looks like 2024 might be a better year for that. Is there any way you think that the historical profitability in that region, which has not been great to say the least, can be better when that initial kind of flow-through of demand comes through with pricing the way it might potentially be?

明白了，這很有幫助。另外，感覺跨太平洋航線目前還沒有像國內航線和跨大西洋航線剛開通時那樣出現需求爆發式增長，但2024年可能會有所改善。您認為，隨著初期需求的釋放以及價格的調整，該地區的歷史盈利能力（說實話，一直不太理想）是否有可能得到改善？

Well, I'd disagree with you on your premise there that Pacific has been a laggard. Pacific has been quite robust, and I think we indicated these are our record profits in terms of margins and total profitability in the Pacific. And if you look at the Pacific, absent of China, it's been fully restored. So I think we're very pleased with the demand to the Pacific, and we're -- right now, that's where our capacity is sitting up most in the fourth quarter and where it will be in the first and through next year. And so -- and we're very enthusiastic about the results we're getting there.

嗯，我不同意你關於太平洋地區業績落後的說法。太平洋地區一直表現強勁，我認為我們已經指出，就利潤率和總盈利而言，太平洋地區的利潤創下了歷史新高。如果你看看太平洋地區，撇開中國市場不談，它已經完全恢復了。所以，我認為我們對太平洋地區的需求非常滿意，而且目前——第四季以及明年第一季——我們的產能主要集中在太平洋地區。因此，我們對目前所取得的業績感到非常振奮。

Your next question is coming from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登‧奧格倫斯基。

Glen, I know you've called out your corporate travel here being up in coastal hub strength, but can you talk to maybe any areas of weakness domestically? And is there like diverging trends with your Main Cabin revenue?

格倫，我知道你之前提到過，你們公司在沿海樞紐的差旅業務有所成長，但你能談談國內市場有哪些弱點嗎？另外，你們的主艙收入是否存在一些不同的趨勢？

Well, I think, yes, we've called out diverging trends with Main Cabin. Those have been pretty consistent, though, throughout the recovery is it's been led by premium products and services. So that's not inconsistent between quarters. I think it's actually relatively flat in terms of the -- how much premium is driving there. And geographically, I think what we're really excited about is the coastal hub investments we've made and particularly New York, that's something we're looking for in '24. We've -- we see a lot of momentum in the Northeast and New York in particular, as things to look forward to in '24.

是的，我認為我們已經指出了主艙業務的分化趨勢。不過，在整個復甦過程中，高端產品和服務一直佔據主導地位，這一點相當一致。所以，各季度之間並沒有矛盾。我認為，就高端產品和服務的驅動力而言，整體趨勢相對穩定。從地理上看，我們真正感到興奮的是我們已進行的沿海樞紐投資，尤其是紐約，這是我們2024年關注的重點。我們看到東北部地區，特別是紐約，發展勢頭強勁，這些都是2024年值得期待的。

Okay. And then on the outlook for next year, growing with your JVs on the international side, how does the changes in Mexico impact this as they move to a Category 1 with the FAA?

好的。那麼展望明年，隨著墨西哥向美國聯邦航空管理局（FAA）一級航空公司過渡，你們在國際合資企業方面的發展前景如何？

Right. Mexico has been a great source of strength for us through the last year, and we see continued strength in those Mexican business. And I think when you think about what we read in the press and what you all see in the onshoring and moving factories from Asia down into Mexico, we've seen really an incredible strength in demand from the business sector in Mexico, and that's looking really robust into 2024.

沒錯。過去一年，墨西哥一直是我們的重要力量來源，我們看到墨西哥企業持續保持強勁勢頭。我認為，結合媒體報道以及大家所看到的工廠從亞洲遷回墨西哥的趨勢，我們已經看到墨西哥商業領域的需求異常強勁，而且這種強勁勢頭有望持續到2024年。

And working with Aeromexico now, we really couldn't do much with them. These are things we wanted to do in the past. You see us coordinating with them. We have ATI joint venture. So we've been working very closely with them to continue to work on where we see strength and being able to serve those markets better, including the auto sector in Detroit and including Atlanta as a primary gateway to Mexico primary and secondary airports.

現在和墨西哥航空合作，我們其實能做的並不多。這些都是我們過去想做的事。你們可以看到我們和他們保持協調。我們成立了ATI合資企業。所以我們一直和他們密切合作，繼續在我們具有優勢的領域深耕，更好地服務這些市場，包括底特律的汽車行業，以及將亞特蘭大作為通往墨西哥的主要門戶和次要機場。

Your next question is coming from Helane Becker from TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自TD Cowen公司的Helane Becker。

Just on -- with respect to -- as you think about travel next summer on the North Atlantic, especially where U.S. citizens are going to need visas, how are you thinking about communicating that to people as they book trips? Is that going to be in the reservation process or follow-ups? Or how do you avoid surprises?

關於您計劃明年夏天在北大西洋旅行，特別是美國公民需要簽證的情況，您打算如何向預訂行程的旅客傳達這一信息？是在預約過程中還是後續跟進中告知？或您如何避免意外狀況？

Helane, it's Peter Carter. I say we will make sure our customers are aware of the visa requirement at various points along the purchasing path and the journey. And I will tell you that the nice thing about the new visa requirement is it is a e-visa, so it's a fairly straightforward process that we think will take about 24 hours.

海倫，我是彼得卡特。我會確保我們的客戶在購買流程的各個環節都了解簽證要求。我還要告訴您，新簽證要求的好處是它是電子簽證，所以流程相當簡單，我們預計大約需要24小時。

Yes. I think it's like Australia, right, where it's pretty quick unless it's not, I think. Okay, that's helpful.

是的。我覺得跟澳洲差不多，對吧，通常很快，除非情況比較慢。好的，這很有幫助。

And then the other question I had was just on the changes to Israel. How big actually is that in your total -- in the total market? It's a lot of ASMs but it can't be that big in terms of, I guess, exposure?

我還有一個問題，是關於以色列市場的變化。這在你們的整體市場中究竟佔多大比重？雖然平均每千次曝光次數很多，但就市場曝光度而言，應該不會太大吧？

It's a little over 1 point of ASMs. And we're not going to give an exact number but it's included -- the revenue hit is included in our fourth quarter guide so we've extended at least through October and then we'll see what happens. The reason we're not saying how much exposure there is, is we don't know how this will evolve yet so we're staying very fluid. But I think we feel very confident that we can get inside of our guidance ranges here with Israel kind of in a worst-case scenario.

平均每千次展示銷售額 (ASM) 略高於 1 個百分點。我們不會給出確切數字，但收入損失已計入第四季度業績指引，因此我們至少將指引延長至 10 月份，之後再看情況發展。我們不透露具體損失金額的原因是，我們目前尚不清楚事態將如何發展，因此我們保持靈活應對。但我認為，即使在以色列市場出現最糟糕的情況，我們也非常有信心實現預期目標。

Matthew, we'll now go to our final analyst question.

馬修，現在我們來問最後一個分析師問題。

Your last question is coming Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

最後一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的Sheila Kahyaoglu。

And I wanted to ask you a question. You made a comment about you're leaning into the cost curve and really leading the industry here with pilot pay and the like. So the question comes, how do we think about your double-digit margins today versus low-cost carriers and what they'll report in Q3 and margin moving pieces maybe into 2024, if you want to provide that or maybe the Delta versus Delta and other carriers?

我想問您一個問題。您提到貴公司正在努力降低成本，並在飛行員薪資等方面引領業界。那麼問題來了，您如何看待貴公司目前兩位數的利潤率與低成本航空公司相比，以及它們在第三季度的業績報告和2024年利潤率變化趨勢？如果你願意，也可以談談達美航空與其他航空公司之間的利潤率對比。

Sheila, you should look at our '24 guide that we gave you with our 3-year plan. The good news at Delta is that we have all of our labor costs at the new market across the board today in posting those double-digit margins. So to the extent other carriers need to be increasing their labor cost in future negotiations, they're just going to be chasing the Delta cost.

希拉，你應該看看我們三年計畫裡附帶的2024年指南。達美航空的好消息是，我們目前在新市場環境下，所有職位的勞動成本都已全面控制在兩位數的利潤率水準。因此，如果其他航空公司在未來的談判中需要提高勞動成本，那他們最終也只是在追趕達美航空的成本水準。

And I think that conversion of industry rates is something we've talked about as kind of another opportunity as we look at trying to make sure we're all running a better business here, and we're not -- we have the same incentives to make sure that our costs are finding their way into our pricing.

我認為，行業費率的轉換是我們討論過的另一個機會，因為我們希望確保大家都能更好地經營業務，而我們並沒有——我們都有同樣的動力確保我們的成本能夠反映到我們的定價中。

Sure. No, makes sense. And if I could ask 1 more, a lot on Delta TechOps. Obviously, a big asset for Delta right now. Anything you could talk about? I think you've previously said GTF shop visits are running at 70 to 80 engines. I don't know if that was only GTF or all engines ramping to potentially 400. Maybe if you could just give us the -- talk about the opportunity longer term with Delta TechOps and what utilization is?

當然。沒錯，很有道理。如果可以的話，我再問一個問題，關於達美航空的技術營運部門（Delta TechOps）。顯然，它目前是達美航空的重要資產。您能談談嗎？我記得您之前說過，GTF 的維修量在 70 到 80 台引擎之間。我不知道這只是 GTF 的情況，還是所有引擎的維修量都在逐步增加，最終可能達到 400 台。您能否談談達美航空技術營運部門的長期發展機會以及其利用率？

Yes. Talked about it at baseline this year, TechOps for Geared Turbofan engine overhauls would be in the 150, 160 range. We have built capacity to take that to -- up to 350 and continue to discuss long-term -- medium- and longer-term capacity needs with Pratt related to that. So we talked about it at Investor Day, very optimistic about our position, not only the heritage that we have and the great expertise that we have in the Delta TechOps team, but our positioning as it relates to being on all the key next-generation platforms, whether that's Geared Turbofan, whether that's rolls and also the LEAP engine create a real set of opportunities for us as we think about this business and multiples of what it can be today over the medium and long term.

是的。我們今年稍早討論過，齒輪傳動渦輪扇發動機大修的技術運作能力預計在150到160台之間。我們已經提升了產能，使其能夠達到350台，並且正在與普惠公司就相關的長期、中期和長期產能需求進行持續諮詢。我們在投資者日上也談到了這一點，我們對自身的發展前景非常樂觀，這不僅是因為我們擁有深厚的歷史底蘊和達美航空技術運營團隊的卓越專業知識，還因為我們在所有關鍵的下一代平台上的佈局，無論是齒輪傳動渦扇發動機、滾輪發動機還是LEAP發動機，都為我們創造了真正的機遇。展望未來，我們預期這項業務在中長期內將達到數倍成長。

That will wrap the analyst portion of the call. I'll now turn it over to Tim Mapes to start the media questions.

分析師部分的發言到此結束。現在我將把發言權交給提姆·梅普斯，讓他開始回答媒體提問。

Thank you, Julie. Matthew, if we could, as we transition from the analyst questions to those from the members of the media, maybe repeat the instructions for everyone, please.

謝謝你，朱莉。馬修，在我們結束分析師提問環節，過渡到媒體提問環節時，能否請你再重複一次操作說明？

At this time, we'll be conducting a Q&A session for media questions.

屆時，我們將舉辦媒體問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Your first question is coming from Dawn Gilbertson from Wall Street Journal.

你的第一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的 Dawn Gilbertson。

Ed, I wonder if you could give us any more color, Ed or Glen, on the reaction to the SkyMiles changes and when you expect to announce the things you might be rolling back or changing?

Ed，Ed 或 Glen，我想請你們再透露一些關於 SkyMiles 變更引發的反應，以及你們預計何時宣布可能要撤銷或更改的內容？

Dawn, we've -- I've mentioned publicly over the last couple of weeks that we're certainly receiving good feedback from our customers with respect to the changes. I have indicated that we had too many changes rolled out at the same time, and we needed to go back and reassess the planned rollout for the new qualification levels.

Dawn，過去幾週我曾公開提到，我們確實收到了客戶對這些變更的正面回饋。我也指出，我們同時推出的變更太多了，我們需要重新評估新資格等級的推廣計畫。

I mentioned this morning on the CNBC interview, there's 2 things, though, that are common throughout all of the feedback. One is there is the intense loyalty to Delta, which is really heartwarming to see. The loyalty to this brand is great. We've worked hard to build it and we maintained it. We will continue to maintain that. There should be no question about that.

我今天早上在CNBC的訪談中提到過，所有回饋中有兩點是共通的。一是大家對達美航空的忠誠度非常高，真的令人感動。大家對這個品牌的忠誠度很高。我們努力打造並維護了它，我們將繼續保持下去，這一點毋庸置疑。

And secondly, that most everyone also agrees that something has to be done because everyone sees that the premium number of customers that we continue to build are in excess of the premium assets that we have to offer. And so figuring out how to better rationalize and make certain that the service levels for our premium customers are where they need to be is, there's various ways to get it. We've received a lot of ideas as to different ways to think about it, and you'll be hearing from us in the coming days.

其次，幾乎所有人都同意必須採取行動，因為大家都意識到，我們不斷增長的高端客戶數量已經超過了我們所能提供的優質資源。因此，如何更好地合理化資源配置，確保高端客戶的服務水準達到應有的水平，有很多方法可以實現。我們已經收到了許多不同的建議，未來幾天我們會與大家分享。

Okay. If I could just have 1 quick follow-up on that front. What is driving -- in terms of the reaction, I mean, are you seeing just feedback or are you seeing an impact on credit card sign-ups and/or cancellations? I mean, what's driving this pretty quick change to your initial plans?

好的。關於這一點，我只想快速問一個後續問題。是什麼原因導致——就目前的反應而言，我的意思是，您看到的只是反饋，還是說信用卡註冊和/或取消量受到了影響？我的意思是，是什麼原因促使您如此迅速地改變最初的計劃？

Well, it's the feedback. It's not -- no, we're not seeing any change in trajectory rather on acquisitions or changes in spend levels. Everything continues to stay intact, as Glen, I think mentioned during some of his comments, this is good feedback that we're seeing and candidly, with some of it, I agree with them.

嗯，關鍵在於回饋。不，我們並沒有看到任何發展軌跡上的變化，無論是收購還是支出水準的變化。一切都保持原樣，正如格倫在他的一些演講中提到的那樣，這些都是很好的反饋，坦白說，我對其中的一些反饋表示贊同。

Your next question is coming from Alison Sider from Wall Street Journal.

你的下一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的艾莉森賽德。

There's been some analysis recently about sort of the potential impact of cost savings that people really started taking weight loss drugs like Ozempic in big numbers. Is that something you look at, at all? As you factor that into your fuel projections or anything like that?

最近有一些分析指出，人們大量服用像Ozempic這樣的減肥藥可能會帶來成本節約的影響。您是否會考慮這一點？例如在製定燃料預測或其他類似策略時？

No, we don't, Ali.

不，我們沒有，阿里。

And then if I could follow up. I was also curious on potential Israel evacuation flights. I know there's ongoing discussions with the government on this. But would Delta be open to flying to Israel under a charter if the government asks or if there was a craft activation? Or would you rather just fly to points outside of Israel? Is there any openness, I guess, to flying kind of under those circumstances?

然後，如果可以的話，我想再問一下。我還想了解一下以色列撤僑航班的可能性。我知道政府正在就此進行討論。但如果政府提出要求，或啟動了相關航班，達美航空是否願意以包機形式飛往以色列？還是你們比較傾向飛往以色列以外的地區？我想問的是，在類似情況下，你們願不願意執飛？

There are discussions, as I've indicated. Right now, we're looking at providing some additional lift to Europe to get people out of Europe. But no, we don't have any plans to be flying into Israel. It's considered unsafe for a U.S. carrier to operate in that airspace currently.

正如我之前提到的，我們正在進行討論。目前，我們正在考慮增加飛往歐洲的航班，以便幫助人們離開歐洲。但是，我們沒有任何飛往以色列的計劃。目前，美國航空公司在該空域運作被認為是不安全的。

Your next question is coming from Mary Schlangenstein from Bloomberg News.

下一個問題來自彭博新聞社的瑪麗‧施蘭根斯坦。

I wanted to ask real quickly, with the ongoing slot waiver situation in New York where the airlines were asked to reduce capacity because of the congestion in the air traffic controller shortage, can you talk about how much of that Delta is taking advantage of? And whether you expect that if it continues long term to start to have some significant impact? Also whether you're redeploying that capacity into other markets?

我想快速問一下，鑑於紐約目前實行的航班時刻豁免政策，由於空中交通管制員短缺導致擁堵，航空公司被要求減少運力，您能否談談達美航空利用了多少這項政策？如果這種情況持續下去，您是否預期會產生一些顯著影響？另外，您是否正在將減少的運力重新部署到其他市場？

Well, thanks for that question. Yes, we're planning on using the entirety of the slot waiver which is, I believe, 10% of our flights into and out of Kennedy and LaGuardia in order to help with the airspace congestion issues that are surrounding those airports right now. So what we're trying to do is have minimal impact. We will not withdraw from any individual markets. We will thin out some frequencies. We'll put some larger gauge in.

謝謝你的提問。是的，我們計劃充分利用航班時刻豁免，也就是甘迺迪機場和拉瓜迪亞機場10%的進出港航班，以緩解目前這些機場週邊空域的擁塞問題。所以我們盡量減少對其他航線的影響。我們不會退出任何特定市場，只會減少部分航班頻次，並增加一些大口徑航班。

And any of the assets that are freed up from New York will get redeployed into other parts of our network for now. But it shouldn't really be very different than the summer. As you know, that's rolled forward from the summer, which we had 10% out, and that's just extending it through the winter. So you won't see really, I think, any dramatic changes to our schedule versus where we're sitting today.

從紐約騰出的任何資源，目前都會重新部署到我們網路的其他部分。但實際上應該不會和夏季有太大差別。如您所知，夏季的計劃已經延續到冬季，當時我們停運了10%的航班，現在只是將停駛時間延長到了冬季。所以我認為，與我們目前的情況相比，您的航班時刻表不會有太大變化。

Does that become a broader problem for you if that continues to be extended?

如果這種情況繼續下去，這對你來說是否會成為一個更廣泛的問題？

I think the broader problem is not being able to operate in the New York airspace. And so I think we're working very closely with the government to see what we can do to improve the situation there. It was very difficult on our customers this summer. And certainly, we're all hoping for some relief by next summer.

我認為更廣泛的問題是無法在紐約空域運作。因此，我們正在與政府密切合作，探討如何改善那裡的狀況。今年夏天，我們的客戶受到了很大的影響。當然，我們都希望明年夏天情況能有所改善。

And Mary, we really -- this is Peter Carter, we really appreciate the FAA providing that relief and acknowledging that there is a constraint in the Northeast with respect to the staffing of air traffic controllers. And frankly, that's the thing that we need to really solve as an industry.

瑪麗，我們——我是彼得·卡特——真的非常感謝聯邦航空管理局提供的幫助，並承認東北地區在空中交通管制員人員配備方面存在限制。坦白說，這正是我們整個產業真正需要解決的問題。

Your next question is coming from Leslie Josephs from CNBC.

下一個問題來自CNBC的萊斯利·約瑟夫斯。

We keep seeing air fares fall, and I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about what kind of discounting you're having to do in the fall. And then have you made any capacity changes on days when people might have traveled in the off-peak and maybe they're going back to more traditional bookings, if that's the case?

我們看到機票價格持續下跌，我想請您談談秋季期間貴公司採取了哪些折扣措施。另外，如果人們在淡季出行，而現在又恢復了傳統的預訂方式，貴公司是否對某些日期的航班運力進行了調整？

Sure. I think the most recent data that came out this morning had been flat to up slightly month-over-month, so I don't think that as an industry level, that's a good indication. What we've seen is that actually June was our lowest point in terms of year-over-year average fares and it's moved up for us since then. And that's really driven by the premium side and the success we've had in terms of selling more premium and the fares we're getting for our premium products and services.

當然。我認為今天早上公佈的最新數據顯示，環比基本持平或略有增長，所以從行業層面來看，這並不能說明什麼問題。我們看到的情況是，6月份是我們同比平均票價的最低點，之後一直在回升。這主要得益於高端產品線的銷售，以及我們在高端產品銷售方面的成功，以及我們高端產品和服務所獲得的票價優勢。

So yes, at the bottom end, there's some discounting. There's also some fare initiatives. So it's always a very fluid situation. And right now, I think we're very -- we're calling it stable between third quarter and fourth quarter.

是的，低端票價確實有一些折扣，也有一些票價優惠政策。所以情況總是瞬息萬變。目前，我認為第三季到第四季之間非常穩定。

And the fares that you're discounting to, is that like on par with 2019 or is that -- like is there a kind of a reference point or...

你們提供的折扣票價，是跟 2019 年的票價持平，還是說──有沒有一個參考點之類的？

Yes. Certain markets are, certain markets are above. So I think the market basket is there -- at the very bottom end, they may be slightly below where they were in '19, but not really. There's always a fare in a market that is below, but in general, they're not.

是的。某些市場價格下跌，某些市場價格上漲。所以我認為整體市場組成是存在的——最底層的商品和服務價格可能略低於2019年的水平，但總體而言並不低。總是會有一些商品和服務的價格低於市場平均水平，但總體而言，價格並沒有下跌。

Thank you, Leslie. Matthew, we have time for 1 final question, please.

謝謝你，萊斯利。馬修，我們還有時間問最後一個問題，好嗎？

Your last question is coming from David Slotnick from TPG.

你的最後一個問題來自 TPG 的 David Slotnick。

Going back to the loyalty program, were you surprised by the customer reaction and I suppose the degree of it? And what were you sort of expecting instead of that [stuff]?

回到會員忠誠度計劃，您對顧客的反應以及反應的程度感到驚訝嗎？您原本預期會出現什麼狀況？

We were certainly expecting some feedback. And by the way, some of the feedback we've received is very positive and encourages us not to make any changes. So there wasn't any 1 cohort that was silent on the matter. We have a full 360 view of the perspective. But it gives us a chance to sit back, reflect on it. And there were points about the program that I thought that we could make some modifications to. There still will be changes to the program. I've been very clear about that, but we're going to make modifications to what we announced.

我們當然預料到會收到一些回饋。順便說一句，我們收到的一些回饋非常積極，鼓勵我們不要做任何改變。所以，沒有哪個群體對此事保持沉默。我們對各方觀點都有全面的了解。但這讓我們有機會冷靜下來，好好反思。我認為，關於這個項目，有些地方我們可以做一些調整。項目仍然會有一些改變。我已經明確表示過這一點，但我們會對我們之前公佈的內容進行一些修改。

And just a follow-up. Was American Express expecting any changes to the premium card demand just with the lounge access? Do they think that, that's potentially going to fall? And if so, will that impact your royalty revenue?

還有一個後續問題。美國運通是否預期貴賓室使用權會改變高端信用卡的需求？他們認為這種需求可能會下降嗎？如果下降，這會影響你們的特許權使用費收入嗎？

American Express, we, of course, did this with full back-and-forth knowledge, so we did this together with American Express. And if anything, since we've announced it, we've seen a shift to higher premium card acquisitions. So I think we're well within from that perspective where we thought we'd be.

當然，我們與美國運通在充分溝通的基礎上完成了這項工作，我們是與美國運通共同合作的。而且，自從我們宣布這項計劃以來，我們看到高端信用卡的擴展需求增加。所以我認為，從這個角度來看，我們完全達到了預期目標。

Thank you, David. And Matthew, I think that will conclude our call.

謝謝你，大衛。馬修，我想我們的通話就到此結束了。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。