達美航空 (DAL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Delta Air Lines September Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Matthew, and I will be your coordinator.

大家早安，歡迎參加達美航空 2023 年 9 月季度財務業績電話會議。我叫馬修，我將是你們的協調員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Julie Stewart, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁朱莉·史都華 (Julie Stewart)。請繼續。

Thank you, Matthew. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, in Atlanta, we are joined by CEO, Ed Bastian; President, Glen Hauenstein; and our CFO, Dan Janki. Ed will open the call with an overview of Delta's performance and strategy. Glen will provide an update on the revenue environment, and Dan will discuss costs in our balance sheet. After the prepared remarks, we'll take analyst questions and then we'll move to our media questions.

謝謝你，馬修。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。今天，在亞特蘭大，執行長 Ed Bastian 加入了我們；總裁格倫·豪恩斯坦；以及我們的財務長 Dan Janki。 Ed 將首先概述達美航空的業績和策略。格倫將提供收入環境的最新情況，丹將討論我們資產負債表中的成本。在準備好的發言之後，我們將回答分析師問題，然後我們將轉向媒體問題。

Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that may cause such differences are described in Delta's SEC filings. We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and all results exclude special items unless otherwise noted. You can find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures on the Investor Relations page at ir.delta.com. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.

今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，代表我們對未來事件的信念或期望。所有前瞻性陳述均涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。達美航空向 SEC 提交的文件中描述了可能導致此類差異的一些因素。我們也將討論非公認會計準則財務指標，除非另有說明，所有結果均不包括特殊項目。您可以在 ir.delta.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到我們的非 GAAP 衡量標準的調整表。然後，我會將電話轉給艾德。

Well, thank you, Julie, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us. Before we start, I want to acknowledge the unfolding war in Israel and the tragic loss of life that has ensued. Delta is donating $1 million to the American Red Cross for the International Committee of the Red Cross to help fund humanitarian efforts in the conflict. This includes emergency assistance such as health services, emergency care, ambulance services and other critical needs.

嗯，謝謝你，朱莉，大家早安。我們感謝您加入我們。在我們開始之前，我想承認以色列正在發生的戰爭以及隨之而來的悲慘生命損失。達美航空向美國紅十字會向紅十字國際委員會捐贈 100 萬美元，以幫助資助衝突中的人道工作。這包括緊急援助，例如醫療服務、緊急護理、救護車服務和其他關鍵需求。

Our inbound and outbound flights to Tel Aviv have been suspended through October 31 to ensure the safety and security of our customers and employees. We're also offering a customer waiver for travel to Tel Aviv for those who need to change their travel plans. Our hearts are with everyone impacted by these tragic and horrific events.

我們飛往特拉維夫的進出航班已暫停至 10 月 31 日，以確保客戶和員工的安全。我們還為需要改變旅行計劃的人提供前往特拉維夫的客戶豁免。我們的心與所有受到這些悲慘和可怕事件影響的人同在。

Turning to our news for the day. This morning, Delta reported September quarter results, posting earnings of $2.03 per share, a 35% increase over last year. Revenue grew 13% and we achieved a 13.5% operating margin. This resulted in operating income of $2 billion, bringing our operating profit over the last 12 months to over $6 billion. The Delta people delivered for our customers throughout the very busy summer season, and I'm grateful to our teams for all they do for our customers and each other every day. Our people are the foundation of Delta and are our most important competitive strength.

轉向我們今天的新聞。今天上午，達美航空公佈了 9 月季度業績，每股收益為 2.03 美元，比去年同期增長 35%。營收成長 13%，營業利益率達 13.5%。這帶來了 20 億美元的營業收入，使我們過去 12 個月的營業利潤超過 60 億美元。達美航空員工在整個非常繁忙的夏季為我們的客戶提供服務，我感謝我們的團隊每天為我們的客戶和彼此所做的一切。員工是台達的基礎，也是我們最重要的競爭優勢。

Sharing our financial success with our people is a long-standing pillar of Delta's culture. With this quarter's financial performance, we accrued another $420 million towards next February's profit sharing. This brings our profit sharing accrual to over $1 billion year-to-date, marking an important and exciting milestone for the Delta team. The great work of our 100,000 people was recently recognized as Delta ranked #12 overall on Time Magazine's list of The World's Best Companies. We were the only airline to make the top 100 of this prestigious list. And USA Today readers just selected Delta as the Best Airline in the World.

與員工分享我們的財務成功是達美文化的長期支柱。根據本季的財務業績，我們為明年 2 月的利潤分享累積了另外 4.2 億美元。這使得我們今年迄今的利潤分享累計超過 10 億美元，這對達美團隊來說是一個重要且令人興奮的里程碑。最近，達美航空 10 萬名員工的出色工作在《時代》雜誌全球最佳公司排行榜上名列第 12 位。我們是唯一一家進入這份著名榜單前 100 名的航空公司。 《今日美國》的讀者剛剛將達美航空選為全球最佳航空公司。

Our operational fundamentals remain strong, underscored by Delta's industry-leading position in on-time arrivals and blue sky operational performance that is reliably back to pre-COVID levels. Following a high number of irregular operations days early in the quarter driven by weather and ATC constraints, we have seen consistent improvement in our operating metrics. In October, we are running a near-perfect completion factor across the mainline system, and we remain #1 in on-time arrivals year-to-date.

我們的營運基本面仍然強勁，達美航空在準點到達方面處於行業領先地位，藍天營運績效可靠地恢復到新冠疫情爆發前的水平，這凸顯了我們的營運基本面依然強勁。在本季初因天氣和空中交通管制限製而出現大量不正常運作之後，我們發現營運指標持續改善。十月，我們在整個幹線系統中運行著近乎完美的完成率，並且今年迄今為止我們在準點到達方面仍然保持第一。

As we're now in the final phase of our recovery, we are making important forward-leaning investments in the health and reliability of our fleet. These maintenance investments will position us to consistently deliver the operational excellence that underpins Delta's brand. Running a high-quality operation is critical to being the airline of choice for our customers and driving a competitive cost structure. Dan will speak more to this shortly.

由於我們現在正處於復甦的最後階段，我們正在對機隊的健康和可靠性進行重要的前瞻性投資。這些維護投資將使我們能夠始終如一地提供支撐達美品牌的卓越營運。經營高品質的營運對於成為客戶的首選航空公司並推動具有競爭力的成本結構至關重要。丹很快就會對此進行更多討論。

During the quarter, we also made a $150 million strategic investment in Wheels Up, co-investing alongside Certares Management, Knighthead Capital and others. This new investment structure combines the #1 premium commercial airline with the travel and tourism expertise of Certares and the turnaround expertise of Knighthead. Delta's relationship with Wheels Up creates a new premium product line for our customers, and I look forward to working with our co-investors and the new management team to unlock the full value of this uniquely positioned business.

本季度，我們也與 Certares Management、Knighthead Capital 等公司共同對 Wheels Up 進行了 1.5 億美元的策略投資。這種新的投資結構將排名第一的優質商業航空公司與 Certares 的旅行和旅遊專業知識以及 Knighthead 的周轉專業知識結合起來。達美航空與 Wheels Up 的合作關係為我們的客戶創造了一條全新的優質產品線，我期待與我們的共同投資者和新的管理團隊合作，釋放這一定位獨特的業務的全部價值。

Turning to our outlook. Travel remains a top purchase priority and our core customer base is in a healthy financial position. We continue to see strength in bookings across Delta's global network, driven by our consumers. Demand for premium experiences, international travel and increasing business travel further differentiate the trends that Delta is seeing within the industry. We expect our December quarter revenues to be 10% higher than 2022 with a 10% operating margin and earnings of over $1 per share. This brings our expectation for full year earnings to over $6 per share on a double-digit operating margin and free cash flow of $2 billion.

轉向我們的展望。旅行仍然是首要購買重點，我們的核心客戶群財務狀況良好。在消費者的推動下，達美全球網路的預訂量持續強勁。對優質體驗、國際旅行和不斷增加的商務旅行的需求進一步區分了達美航空在業界看到的趨勢。我們預計 12 月季度的營收將比 2022 年成長 10%，營業利益率為 10%，每股盈餘將超過 1 美元。這使得我們對全年每股收益的預期超過 6 美元，營業利潤率達到兩位數，自由現金流達到 20 億美元。

Since raising full year guidance over the summer, our revenue outlook has improved, though earnings and cash flow have been impacted by higher fuel and maintenance costs. Revenue for the full year is expected to increase 20% over last year, which was the high end of our expectations on steady domestic demand and continued strength in international. With strong top line growth and margin expansion, we expect to double earnings year-over-year and deliver a 13% return on invested capital.

自從夏季提高全年指引以來，我們的收入前景有所改善，儘管獲利和現金流受到燃料和維護成本上漲的影響。預計全年營收較去年成長20%，這是我們對國內需求穩定、國際持續走強預期的上限。憑藉強勁的收入成長和利潤率擴張，我們預計收益將比去年同期翻一番，並實現 13% 的投資資本回報率。

Our outlook for 2023 keeps revenue, earnings, cash flow and debt reduction on track with our 3-year plan, which we issued in December of '21. As we progress through the recovery, we have made meaningful investments in operational reliability and our people. Delta has led the industry in setting the bar for wages, including a new pilot deal and profit sharing.

我們對 2023 年的展望使收入、收益、現金流和債務削減保持在我們 21 年 12 月發布的三年計劃的軌道上。隨著經濟復甦的進展，我們在營運可靠性和員工方面進行了有意義的投資。達美航空在設定工資標準方面處於行業領先地位，包括新的試點協議和利潤分享。

We are seeing the structural step-up in operating costs amid increasing fuel prices, creating some near-term pressure on industry margins. However, I fully expect that the market will adjust to higher costs as it has historically and reestablish equilibrium. With Delta's differentiated premium revenue strategy and strong global network, we will continue to deliver industry-leading profitability and generate robust free cash flow.

我們看到，隨著燃料價格上漲，營運成本出現結構性上升，對產業利潤率造成了一些短期壓力。然而，我完全預期市場將像歷史上那樣適應更高的成本並重新建立平衡。憑藉達美差異化的保費收入策略和強大的全球網絡，我們將繼續提供業界領先的獲利能力並產生強勁的自由現金流。

In closing, the strategy that we shared at Investor Day positions us well for the future. And while the operate -- the environment we operate in continues to evolve in this post-COVID world, our objectives are unchanged as we move into 2024. With our network rebuilt and growth now moderating, optimizing the airline and driving efficiency are significant opportunities. Thank you again for your support of our company.

最後，我們在投資者日分享的策略為我們的未來做好了準備。雖然我們的營運環境在後新冠疫情時代不斷發展，但進入 2024 年，我們的目標並沒有改變。隨著我們的網路重建和成長放緩，優化航空公司和提高效率是重大機會。再次感謝您對我公司的支持。

And with that, let me hand it over to Glen and to Dan to go through the details of the quarter.

接下來，讓我將其交給格倫和丹來詳細介紹本季的細節。

Thank you, Ed, and good morning. I want to start by thanking all of our employees for their hard work and dedication during the busy summer travel season. In the September quarter, Delta generated revenue of $14.6 billion, up 13% over prior year. Total unit revenues were down 2.5%, including a point of pressure from Cargo and MRO. With these results, I expect Delta to deliver a record September quarter unit revenue premium versus the industry, reflecting the continued success of our commercial strategy.

謝謝你，艾德，早安。首先，我要感謝我們所有員工在繁忙的夏季旅行季節期間的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。在 9 月的季度中，達美航空的營收為 146 億美元，比去年同期成長 13%。總單位收入下降了 2.5%，其中包括來自 Cargo 和 MRO 的壓力。憑藉這些結果，我預計達美航空將在 9 月季度實現創紀錄的單位收入溢價，反映出我們商業策略的持續成功。

Domestic passenger revenue was up 6% over prior year. Performance was steady through the quarter with strength in our coastal hubs where we are leveraging our leading positions in generational airport bills.

國內客運收入較上年增長 6%。本季業績穩定，我們在沿海樞紐的實力雄厚，利用我們在代際機場帳單方面的領先地位。

International passenger revenue grew 35%, with the Transatlantic and Pacific outperforming our already high expectations. We delivered record margins across all international entities this summer and strength is continuing through the fall.

國際客運收入成長 35%，其中跨大西洋和太平洋航線的表現超出了我們本已很高的預期。今年夏天，我們在所有國際實體中實現了創紀錄的利潤率，而這種勢頭將持續到整個秋季。

Demand for our premium products is very strong with revenue up 17% over prior year, outperforming main cabin by 5 points. Domestic paid load factor in our first-class cabins was a record as we continue to advance our premium merchandising and upsell capabilities. Delta Premium Select has now been rolled out to over 85% of long-haul flights, and the revenue generation from this product has been above expectations and a key contributor to our record international margins.

我們的優質產品需求非常強勁，營收比上年成長 17%，比主艙高出 5 個百分點。隨著我們繼續提升我們的優質行銷和追加銷售能力，我們的頭等艙國內付費載客率創下了紀錄。達美尊尚精選現已覆蓋超過 85% 的長途航班，該產品產生的收入超出預期，是我們創紀錄的國際利潤率的關鍵因素。

Business travel continues to steadily improve as corporates continue with return-to-office initiatives. Less recovered sectors like technology and financial services saw a double-digit growth during the quarter. A recent corporate survey indicates continued growth in business demand with a significant majority of companies expecting their travel to stay the same or increase as we move into 4Q and into '24. SME and hybrid travelers are producing margins in line with corporate travelers and demand from these travel remains well above 2019 levels.

隨著企業繼續實施重返辦公室計劃，商務旅行繼續穩步改善。科技和金融服務等復甦程度較低的產業在本季實現了兩位數成長。最近的一項企業調查顯示，業務需求持續成長，絕大多數公司預計，隨著進入第四季和 2024 年，他們的旅行將保持不變或增加。中小企業和混合型旅客的利潤率與商務旅客一致，而且這些旅行的需求仍遠高於 2019 年的水準。

Total loyalty revenue was up 17% over prior year with continued strength in our American Express co-brand portfolio. Amex remuneration of $1.7 billion grew approximately 20% over prior year. We expect full year remuneration of close to $7 billion and are focused on reaching our long-term goal of $10 billion. Diversified revenue streams, including premium and loyalty have generated 55% of revenue year-to-date, reflecting Delta's differentiated positioning to the industry.

由於美國運通聯合品牌組合的持續強勁，總忠誠度收入比上年增長了 17%。美國運通公司的薪酬為 17 億美元，比上年增長約 20%。我們預計全年薪酬將接近 70 億美元，並致力於實現 100 億美元的長期目標。包括保費和忠誠度在內的多元化收入來源今年迄今已佔收入的 55%，反映了達美航空對該行業的差異化定位。

Turning to the December quarter, we expect total unit revenue to grow 9% to 12% over prior year, bringing our full year revenues to up 20% over prior year. This is at the high end of our guidance even with a few points less capacity than we had planned for the year, reflecting robust demand for the Delta product. Capacity in the fourth quarter is expected to be up 14% to 15%, implying total unit revenues down 2.5% to 4.5% versus prior year.

談到 12 月季度，我們預計總單位營收將比去年同期成長 9% 至 12%，使我們的全年營收比去年同期成長 20%。儘管運力比我們今年的計畫少了幾個百分點，但這仍處於我們指導的高端，反映出對達美航空產品的強勁需求。第四季的產能預計將成長 14% 至 15%，這意味著單位總收入將比去年同期下降 2.5% 至 4.5%。

Domestic and Transatlantic trends are expected to be consistent with the third quarter. Pacific and Latin America unit revenue trends are expected to be modest -- excuse me, expected to modestly decelerate given capacity growth related to China reopening and investment in our LATAM JV.

國內和跨大西洋趨勢預計將與第三季保持一致。太平洋和拉丁美洲的單位收入趨勢預計將溫和 - 對不起，鑑於與中國重新開放和對我們拉丁美洲合資企業的投資相關的產能增長，預計將適度放緩。

Domestic demand remains steady and initial bookings for the peak holiday periods are strong. The ongoing UAW and actor strikes are having a modest impact and we have incorporated those into our outlook. As we move through the fourth quarter, our domestic capacity growth moderates, and in the first quarter of 2024 we expect domestic capacity to be flat to slightly down year-over-year. We have reallocated capacity to international leisure where we are expecting strong returns and remain focused on fully restoring our higher-margin core hubs.

國內需求維持穩定，假期高峰期的初步預訂量強勁。正在進行的 UAW 和演員罷工產生的影響不大，我們已將其納入我們的展望中。隨著第四季的到來，我們的國內產能成長放緩，我們預計 2024 年第一季國內產能將同比持平或略有下降。我們已將運力重新分配給國際休閒，我們期望獲得豐厚的回報，並繼續專注於全面恢復我們利潤率較高的核心樞紐。

On international, we are seeing continued demand strength through the winter. The Transatlantic remains very strong, driven by partner hubs and Southern European leisure traffic performance. We're closely monitoring the situation in Israel as we will evaluate restarting the flights as the situation stabilizes. In the Pacific, we expect to grow December quarter capacity 40% to 50% as we continue restoring the network. While this level of growth will impact unit revenue, we expect the new flying will be profit accretive. For the year, we remain confident in finishing strong with record profitability across all 3 international entities.

在國際方面，我們看到整個冬季的需求持續強勁。在合作夥伴樞紐和南歐休閒交通表現的推動下，跨大西洋航線仍然非常強勁。我們正在密切關注以色列的局勢，隨著局勢穩定，我們將評估重新啟動航班的情況。在太平洋地區，隨著我們繼續恢復網絡，我們預計 12 月季度的容量將成長 40% 至 50%。雖然這種成長水準將影響單位收入，但我們預計新的航班將增加利潤。今年，我們仍然有信心在所有 3 個國際實體中以創紀錄的獲利能力取得強勁業績。

In closing, I'm proud of the revenue performance our teams have delivered, and I'm confident that our integrated commercial strategy will continue to drive industry-leading profitability.

最後，我對我們團隊所取得的收入表現感到自豪，我相信我們的綜合商業策略將繼續推動行業領先的獲利能力。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Dan to talk about the financials.

接下來，我將把它交給丹來討論財務狀況。

Thank you, Glen, and good morning to everyone. For the September quarter, we delivered earnings of $2.03 per share and operating margin of 13.5%. Nonfuel unit costs were up 1.3% year-over-year and fuel prices averaged $2.78 a gallon, including a refinery benefit of $0.11. We generated operating cash flow of $1.1 billion and we invested -- reinvested $1.4 billion into the business. Liquidity ended the quarter at $7.8 billion and adjusted net debt of $20.2 billion. Year-to-date, we've repaid $3.7 billion of gross debt. This is including $1.7 billion of accelerated repayments on our higher-cost debt.

謝謝你，格倫，祝大家早安。 9 月季度，我們實現每股收益 2.03 美元，營業利潤率為 13.5%。非燃料單位成本年增 1.3%，平均燃料價格為每加侖 2.78 美元，其中煉油廠效益為 0.11 美元。我們產生了 11 億美元的營運現金流，並向該業務投資或再投資了 14 億美元。本季末流動性為 78 億美元，調整後淨負債為 202 億美元。今年迄今為止，我們已償還了 37 億美元的總債務。其中包括 17 億美元的高成本債務的加速償還。

Our leverage ratio improved to 3x on a trailing 12-month basis. During the quarter, S&P upgraded our credit rating to BB+, 1 notch away from investment-grade, a recognition of our improving financial foundation. Our capital allocation priorities are reinvesting in the business and improving our balance sheet to investment-grade metrics with a modest cash return to shareholders through our dividend.

我們的槓桿率在過去 12 個月中提高至 3 倍。本季度，標準普爾將我們的信用評級提升至 BB+，比投資級低一級，這是對我們不斷改善的財務基礎的認可。我們的資本配置優先事項是對業務進行再投資，並將我們的資產負債表改善至投資等級指標，並透過股息向股東提供適度的現金回報。

Now moving to guidance. For the December quarter, we expect nonfuel unit costs to be flat to up 2% on a year-over-year basis. With the exception of maintenance costs, our second half unit costs are progressing as expected. As we discussed in September, there are 3 drivers to higher maintenance: first, investment in fleet health; second, expanded work scope on our 757 engine fleet; and third, challenges across the supply chain.

現在轉向指導。對於 12 月季度，我們預計非燃料單位成本將同比持平至成長 2%。除維護成本外，我們下半年的單位成本進展符合預期。正如我們在 9 月討論的那樣，更高的維護成本有 3 個驅動因素：第一，對車隊健康的投資；其次，擴大了 757 發動機機隊的工作範圍；第三，整個供應鏈面臨的挑戰。

On fleet health and reliability, our investments are starting to deliver improved operational performance. Our September metrics were ahead of August and October is ahead of September. On the 757 engine, a workhorse in our fleet, we're going through a wave of overhauls. The engines we took off-wing over the summer required larger work scope and a higher mix of new parts. Looking forward, we are forecasting higher new material consumption rates.

在機隊健康和可靠性方面，我們的投資開始改善營運績效。我們 9 月份的指標領先 8 月份，10 月份的指標領先 9 月份。我們機隊的主力 757 引擎正在經歷一波大修。我們在夏天起飛的引擎需要更大的工作範圍和更多的新零件組合。展望未來，我們預期新材料消耗率將會更高。

On supply chain, the industry continues to face challenges that will take time to work through. Engine and airframe turnaround times remain elevated, driving inefficiency and impacting productivity. We are working closely with our partners and leveraging our deep expertise in TechOps to manage supply chain challenges.

在供應鏈方面，該行業繼續面臨挑戰，需要時間來解決。引擎和機身的周轉時間仍然較長，導致效率低下並影響生產力。我們正在與合作夥伴密切合作，利用我們在技術營運方面的深厚專業知識來應對供應鏈挑戰。

Delta has a long heritage of industry-leading operational performance, driven by the best TechOps capability in the industry. Operational excellence is central to our brand promise and a key pacing item to drive out inefficiencies.

達美航空在業界最佳的技術營運能力的推動下，擁有業界領先營運績效的悠久傳統。卓越營運是我們品牌承諾的核心，也是消除效率低下的關鍵節奏項目。

Moving to fuel. Fuel prices have moved higher since July, adding roughly $400 million of expense to our outlook for the second half of the year. We expect December fuel prices to be $2.90 to $3.20 per gallon, with the refinery expected to be roughly breakeven for the quarter. The refinery turnaround is progressing as we planned and we expect production to resume in mid-November. Based on our December quarter outlook for revenue and costs, we expect earnings of $1.05 to $1.30 per share on a 9% to 11% operating margin. This brings our full year outlook to earnings to $6 to $6.25 per share on double-digit operating margin and free cash flow of $2 billion. We are focused on finishing the year strong. We remain committed to delivering industry-leading margin performance, earnings growth and strong cash generation.

轉向燃料。自 7 月以來，燃油價格上漲，使我們對下半年的預期增加了約 4 億美元的支出。我們預計 12 月燃油價格為每加侖 2.90 美元至 3.20 美元，煉油廠預計本季將大致達到損益兩平。煉油廠的檢修正在按我們的計劃進行，我們預計生產將在 11 月中旬恢復。根據我們 12 月季度的營收和成本展望，我們預計每股收益為 1.05 美元至 1.30 美元，營業利潤率為 9% 至 11%。這使得我們對全年獲利的預期達到每股 6 至 6.25 美元，營運利潤率為兩位數，自由現金流為 20 億美元。我們致力於以強勁的勢頭結束這一年。我們仍然致力於提供業界領先的利潤率表現、獲利成長和強勁的現金產生。

As we progress through the 2024 planning process, our focus is shifting from restoration to optimization. Over the last 2 years, we've grown at an unprecedented rate for an airline of our size to restore our network. Growth is normalizing next year, and we expect operational reliability to continue to improve. This will allow us to optimize how we run the airline, reducing operational buffers and driving out inefficiencies that have resulted from the intensity of the rebuild.

隨著 2024 年規劃進程的進展，我們的重點正從恢復轉向最佳化。在過去的兩年裡，我們以前所未有的速度發展，對於像我們這樣規模的航空公司來說，我們已經恢復了我們的網路。明年成長將正常化，我們預計營運可靠性將繼續提高。這將使我們能夠優化航空公司的營運方式，減少營運緩衝並消除因重建強度而導致的低效率。

Our capacity growth for 2024 will be focused on Delta's areas of strength. Domestically, we are prioritizing our core high-margin hubs, driving connectivity and gauge. Internationally, we are leveraging our best-in-class JV partnerships and increasing the mix of flying on next-generation aircraft. We are executing against the strategy and financial objectives we laid out at our Investor Day with an emphasis on free cash flow, earnings durability and capital efficiency.

我們 2024 年的運力成長將集中在達美航空的優勢領域。在國內，我們正在優先考慮我們的核心高利潤樞紐，推動連結性和軌距。在國際上，我們正​​在利用一流的合資夥伴關係，增加下一代飛機的飛行組合。我們正在執行我們在投資者日制定的策略和財務目標，重點是自由現金流、獲利持久性和資本效率。

In closing, Delta is well positioned to maintain industry leadership operationally and financially. I'd like to sincerely thank the Delta people for everything they do every day.

最後，達美航空處於有利地位，可以在營運和財務方面保持行業領先地位。我衷心感謝台達人每天所做的一切。

With that, I'll turn it back to Julie for Q&A.

這樣，我會將其轉回給朱莉進行問答。

Thanks, Dan. Matthew, can you please remind the analysts how to queue up for a question?

謝謝，丹。 Matthew，您能提醒一下分析師如何排隊提問嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question is coming from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

你的第一個問題來自摩根大通的傑米貝克。

So Dan, expanding on some of your engine comments, we're obviously focused on the GTF situation. I realize you're not -- or at least I don't believe you're directly impacted with any groundings right now. I'm just trying to square the situation against your MRO and your GTF in-house expertise. And is there a scenario where the Pratt mess ends up benefiting Delta? Or should we think more about simply reducing the downside relative to some of your peers? Also, how does this impact the maintenance cost guide embedded in your 2024 CASM expectations?

Dan，擴展一下您對引擎的一些評論，我們顯然關注的是 GTF 的情況。我知道你沒有——或者至少我不相信你現在受到任何接地的直接影響。我只是想根據您的 MRO 和 GTF 內部專業知識來平衡情況。普拉特的混亂最終是否會令達美航空受益？或者我們應該更多地考慮簡單地減少相對於某些同行的劣勢？此外，這對 2024 年 CASM 預期中嵌入的維護成本指南有何影響？

Maybe first start with the Geared Turbofan as it relates more directly to our fleet, both on the neo, we took our deliveries later so the impact will be modest to minimal. If there are any inspections or things off-wing, it will be in the latter half of 2024 based on the analysis that we've gotten so far from Pratt. We're still waiting on the full analysis related to the 220 fleet. That should be coming later this month and we will assess that impact appropriately.

也許首先從齒輪渦輪風扇發動機開始，因為它與我們的機隊關係更直接，無論是在 Neo 上，我們都稍後才進行交付，因此影響將是適度到最小的。根據我們迄今為止從普拉特得到的分析，如果有任何檢查或其他事情，將在 2024 年下半年進行。我們仍在等待與 220 機隊相關的完整分析。這應該會在本月晚些時候發布，我們將適當評估其影響。

As it relates to MRO, Pratt is certainly a close partner of ours and an important one as it relates to that third-party capability. And we will certainly support their efforts. We're working closely with them on that. We have capacity that ultimately comes down to the allocation of capacity and availability of material to do the work, but we'll be working with them through fall and into next year on that.

就 MRO 而言，普拉特無疑是我們的親密合作夥伴，並且是與第三方能力相關的重要合作夥伴。我們一定會支持他們的努力。我們正在就此與他們密切合作。我們的能力最終取決於完成工作所需材料的分配和可用性，但我們將在整個秋季和明年與他們合作。

Okay, that's helpful. And then for Glen, I've asked about this before. A lot of Delta customers obviously took fairly lavish European vacations this year. You have SkyMiles data on these folks. What's the correlation between big summer spenders and big winter spenders? What's that, I don't know, sort of SkyMiles Venn diagram look like? Because what I'm wondering about is the potential for people scaling back on their winter trips because they've spent lavishly on their summer holidays. Any actual data you can share on that?

好的，這很有幫助。至於格倫，我以前曾問過這個問題。今年，許多達美航空的乘客顯然在歐洲度過了相當奢侈的假期。您有這些人的「飛凡哩程常客計畫」數據。夏季大筆支出和冬季大額支出有何相關性？我不知道「飛凡哩程常客計畫」維恩圖是什麼樣子的？因為我想知道人們是否有可能因為暑假消費過大而減少冬季旅行。您可以分享這方面的任何實際數據嗎？

Sure. I think what we're really excited about is the lengthening of the European travel season. And that has really gone from primarily ending in the summer IATA season, which would be October. Now through November, through the holidays, through the New Year and really now we're only talking about a 6- to 8-week period that are the doldrums for Europe. So the bookings, which most people wouldn't have expected, of course, we reduced our schedule in the fall and the winter IATA season. But our year-over-year comps are actually accelerating into the winter as we look into November, December and January.

當然。我認為我們真正感到興奮的是歐洲旅行季節的延長。這實際上已經不再是在夏季 IATA 季節（即 10 月）結束時發生的情況。現在到 11 月、假期、新年，實際上我們現在談論的只是歐洲 6 到 8 週的低迷時期。當然，大多數人沒有預料到的預訂量，我們減少了 IATA 秋季和冬季的航班安排。但當我們展望 11 月、12 月和 1 月時，我們的逐年比較實際上正在加速進入冬季。

So I think we're seeing that continuing into the fall and early parts of winter and we're very excited about that. And we've also, of course, expanded into a lot more Latin leisure this winter than we did last winter, and the advanced demand for that seems very, very robust. So leisure is still very strong and even through shoulder and off-peak periods.

所以我認為我們看到這種情況持續到秋季和冬季初，我們對此感到非常興奮。當然，今年冬天我們也比去年冬天拓展了更多的拉丁休閒活動，而且對此的需求似乎非常非常強勁。因此，即使在平峰期和非高峰期，休閒仍然非常強烈。

Your next question is coming from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

If I may, Glen, just your comment about domestic capacity being flat to down in the first quarter. I was just wondering if that was a decent trend for the full year, or if it was related to also -- in the last year the way first quarter's kind of turned out wasn't what you expected and you were going to make some capacity changes? So is that related to that as well? Or is it more kind of weakness that you're seeing recently or maybe strength in international on a relative basis?

格倫，請容許我談談您對第一季國內產能持平甚至下降的評論。我只是想知道這是否是全年的一個不錯的趨勢，或者是否也與去年第一季的結果不符合您的預期以及您將產生一些產能有關變化？那麼這也與此有關嗎？或者您最近看到的更多的是弱點，或者相對而言國際比賽中的強勢？

It's really a reshaping of the demand patterns that we saw last year. And no shock, January and February are not in the northern tier transcon to East-West markets, barnburner market, so reallocating those to warmer and sunnier places. So our total capacity will be up. Domestic capacity will be down slightly. Core hubs will actually be up with more emphasis on warm and sunny places in Latin America and South Pacific. So that's kind of how we're profiling and really optimization of the demand patterns we saw last year going into this winter.

這確實是我們去年看到的需求模式的重塑。毫不奇怪，一月和二月不在東西向市場、barnburner 市場的北部地區，因此將這些市場重新分配到更溫暖、陽光更充足的地方。所以我們的總容量將會增加。國內產能將小幅下降。實際上，核心樞紐將更加重視拉丁美洲和南太平洋溫暖和陽光明媚的地方。這就是我們對去年進入今年冬天的需求模式進行分析和真正優化的方式。

That makes sense. And if I may also just on domestic revenue, you've been stable at Delta since kind of June. I was wondering how much of the contribution you're getting from restoring your hubs and separately perhaps, the domestic portion of international trips, given what you've talked about is the strength kind of continuing in transatlantic longer than kind of historic? The reason I ask is it seems that stable comment is a little bit different than maybe what we're hearing from kind of the purely domestic airlines.

這就說得通了。如果我還可以只談國內收入的話，自 6 月以來，達美航空一直保持穩定。我想知道您從恢復樞紐以及國際旅行的國內部分中獲得了多少貢獻，考慮到您所說的是跨大西洋持續時間比歷史性更長的力量？我問這個問題的原因是，穩定的評論似乎與我們從純粹的國內航空公司聽到的有點不同。

Right, right. I think what domestic strength is really coming from the premium products domestically. And I'm not going to speak for the other carriers. They all have coming in the next few weeks. But it really hasn't been on domestic portion of international journey, which is de minimis in terms of the variance to what it was last year. Our employments to -- in the transatlantic are up low double digits, but that only represents 13% of our total travel, so really a de minimis impact to domestic.

是的是的。我覺得國內的實力真正來自於國內的優質產品。我不會代表其他業者發言。他們都會在接下來的幾週內到來。但它實際上並沒有出現在國際旅行的國內部分，這與去年的差異微乎其微。我們在跨大西洋地區的就業人數增加了兩位數，但這僅占我們總旅行的 13%，因此對國內的影響確實微乎其微。

So it's really coming from the premium products. And they're doing quite well, as I mentioned. Domestic paid first-class load factors are reaching new heights every month. So very excited about those demand trends. And I think that reinforces the strategy we've been working on for the last 10 years to have a differentiated product.

所以它確實來自優質產品。正如我所提到的，他們做得很好。國內付費頭等艙的載客率每個月都在創新高。對這些需求趨勢感到非常興奮。我認為這強化了我們過去十年來一直致力於打造差異化產品的策略。

Your next question is coming from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

Ed, in the prepared remarks, I think you touched on fuel recapture. Right now, there doesn't seem to be much of an adjustment on the capacity side from some of your indices participants despite, like, erratic fuel. So just trying to understand if there's a new calculus to how you're approaching fuel recapture right now in the current market.

艾德，在準備好的演講中，我認為您談到了燃料回收。目前，儘管燃料不穩定，但一些指數參與者在容量方面似乎沒有太多調整。因此，我只是想了解目前市場上是否有新的計算方法來處理燃料回收問題。

Well, obviously, fuel moved an awful lot within just the last couple of months. And it's the volatility of fuel that really hits us hard as compared to the ability to recapture it. I think traditionally, we've seen over a 2- to 3-quarter rise. We have a pretty good success rate at recapturing it. And when you think about the strength of the demand environment and the fact that across the board, everyone's not just fuel costs are up, but labor rates are increasing and other inflationary pressure, supply chain and maintenance costs are up.

嗯，顯然，在過去的幾個月裡，燃料的變動很大。與重新捕獲燃料的能力相比，燃料的波動性對我們的打擊確實更大。我認為傳統上，我們已經看到了超過 2 到 3 個季度的成長。我們奪回它的成功率相當高。當你考慮到需求環境的強度以及全面的事實時，每個人不僅燃料成本上漲，而且勞動力價格上漲，其他通膨壓力、供應鏈和維護成本也在上漲。

Everyone has a similar incentive to continue to be able to recalibrate those pricing -- those market pressures into pricing. So my outlook is I'm optimistic as we're going into '24. Glen can add his own color there.

每個人都有類似的動機繼續能夠重新調整這些定價——將市場壓力轉化為定價。所以我的前景是樂觀的，因為我們即將進入 24 年。格倫可以在那裡添加自己的顏色。

No, I think you mentioned it really well. It takes time. And when we have rapid fuel price run-ups, it usually takes a few quarters for that to roll into the industry realized fares. But historically, it's always worked. So we're looking at history to predict the future, but that's what the history would tell you.

不，我認為你提到得很好。這需要時間。當燃油價格快速上漲時，通常需要幾個季度的時間才能反映到行業實際票價中。但從歷史上看，它總是有效的。所以我們透過歷史來預測未來，但這就是歷史會告訴你的。

Okay, appreciate that. And then Dan, just back to the maintenance costs and operational investments. Just trying to understand -- I know you touched on it in Jamie's question but just trying to understand how it plays out. Are you basically assuming that maintenance and operational investments will be elevated in the first half? And then how does that roll off? And then when do the productivity gains that you've talked about in the past kind of kick in? I'm just trying to understand how that -- the moving parts are changing a little bit right now.

好的，謝謝。然後丹，回到維護成本和營運投資。只是想理解——我知道你在傑米的問題中提到了這一點，但只是想理解它是如何發揮作用的。您是否基本上假設上半年維護和營運投資將會增加？那麼它是如何實現的呢？那麼您過去談到的生產力提升何時開始發揮作用？我只是想了解這一點——移動部件現在正在發生一些變化。

Yes, certainly talked about it. We're in the middle of -- Conor, thank you. We're in the middle of the '24 planning process. When you think about maintenance, as Ed talked about, it is a foundational item as it relates to our operational reliability and the investments that we're making here were related to fleet help and the work that we're doing on our engines, we're going to stay after here. And that will be with us at least into the first half of next year, and we want to drive that operational reliability.

是的，當然談到了。我們正處於——康納，謝謝你。我們正處於 24 世紀規劃過程的中期。當你考慮維護時，正如埃德所說，這是一個基礎項目，因為它關係到我們的運行可靠性，我們在這裡所做的投資與車隊幫助和我們在發動機上所做的工作有關，我們以後會留在這裡。這至少會持續到明年上半年，我們希望提高營運可靠性。

The second part of that is, as you get that operational reliability, that is really what creates the foundation to be able to start to optimize and unlock the cost investment and inefficiencies that we talked back about at Investor Day, that $1 billion-plus. And as you see that operational liability continue to improve, our teams will be able to lean more and more into getting those investment buffers out, those inefficiencies that are in every part of our operation. And our teams are working through that as they're building out their operating plan and financial plan for 2024.

第二部分是，當你獲得營運可靠性時，這實際上是為能夠開始優化和釋放我們在投資者日談到的成本投資和低效率（超過 10 億美元）奠定了基礎。當你看到營運責任不斷改善時，我們的團隊將能夠越來越多地致力於消除這些投資緩衝，以及我們營運各個部分的低效率問題。我們的團隊正在努力解決這個問題，同時制定 2024 年的營運計劃和財務計劃。

Your next question is coming from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Just on the maintenance investment, a follow-up to maybe Jamie's question there. Is this at all a reflection of your thoughts on future aircraft delivery constraints? In other words, were you always thinking about using those 75s next year? And then just generally, how do you think about and measure returns on capital for investing in something like 757 versus going out and buying new?

只是關於維護投資，也許是傑米問題的後續。這是否反映了您對未來飛機交付限制的想法？換句話說，您是否一直在考慮明年使用這些 75？那麼一般而言，您如何看待並衡量投資 757 之類的產品與購買新產品的資本報酬率？

Yes. Glen can chime in here, too. I think the 757 has been a fleet as we've gone through our restoration that we've characterized as a flexible fleet, and it's one that it's certainly a workhorse. The returns are very good related to how we deploy it and fly it within our network. So we have leaned on it. When you think back of where we might have been 18, 24 months ago, the number that we're flying, we have reactivated more as we continue to see new delivery slide and we get recalibrated year-to-year. So it is one that we've leaned into.

是的。格倫也可以在這裡插話。我認為 757 已經成為我們修復後的一支機隊，我們將其描述為一支靈活的機隊，而且它無疑是一支主力機隊。回報與我們如何部署它以及如何在我們的網路中飛行有關。所以我們已經依賴它了。當你回想 18、24 個月前我們的飛行數量時，我們已經重新啟動了更多航班，因為我們繼續看到新的交付下滑，並且我們每年都進行重新調整。所以這是我們所關注的一個。

And it's one that we'll be flexible on as we work through the next 3, 4, 5 years in regards to how we deploy it. The wave of overhauls that we started last year and we're doing this year and we'll have the same next year, but that gets us through a heavy wave that then allows us really very viable engines that the Delta team has always been very good at managing the end of life of an asset.

在接下來的 3 年、4 年、5 年中，我們將靈活地部署它。我們去年開始的大修浪潮，今年正在進行，明年也會有同樣的大修，但這讓我們度過了一個沉重的浪潮，然後讓我們真正非常可行的發動機，達美團隊一直非常善於管理資產的使用壽命。

We did it on the 90s, 88s in regards to how you manage those assets and deploy them but also get the most out of them, whether it's in whole or in the parts and how they're redeployed back in the stream. And we are always working closely then with fleet and maintenance with Glen team on how to deploy them and get the best returns for them. But those are good returning -- it's a great workhorse for our fleet with good returns.

我們在 90 年代、88 年代就這樣做了，涉及如何管理這些資產和部署它們，同時也充分利用它們，無論是整體還是部分，以及如何將它們重新部署回流中。我們始終與 Glen 團隊的車隊和維修部門密切合作，研究如何部署它們並獲得最佳回報。但這些都是很好的回報——它對我們的機隊來說是一個偉大的主力，具有良好的回報。

Nothing to add other than we took a lot of late deliveries. I think our last 75 was produced -- we had the last one ever built. So some of these planes are not that old, and we have them in our fleet, and we have -- but as you said, as we get to the end of life of these towards the end of this decade, we'll be able to really start harvesting the engines, which will really improve the maintenance profile of the fleet.

除了我們收到了很多延遲交貨之外，沒有什麼可補充的。我想我們最後的 75 輛已經生產出來了——我們製造了最後一輛。因此，其中一些飛機並沒有那麼老，我們的機隊中也有它們，而且我們已經——但正如你所說，當我們在本十年末這些飛機的使用壽命結束時，我們將能夠真正開始收穫發動機，這將真正改善機隊的維護狀況。

And Duane, this is Ed, if I could add my perspective. Your point is right. It is related to the OEMs fundamentally. Their inability to produce engines on time, which they're having their own challenges within the supply chain as well as parts on time. And the one thing that has been a core part of Delta's strength over at TechOps is our ability to go into the used repair market and acquire assets and repurpose them towards our own needs. That market has largely dried up, given all the large rebound in flight activity, which was running at the same time the OEMs have been having struggling to produce new.

杜安，這是艾德，請讓我補充我的觀點。你的觀點是對的。從根本上講，這與整車廠有關。他們無法按時生產發動機，這在供應鏈和按時零件方面面臨著自己的挑戰。達美航空在 TechOps 的核心優勢之一是我們有能力進入二手維修市場並獲取資產並將其重新用於我們自己的需求。鑑於飛行活動大幅反彈，而原始設備製造商一直在努力生產新飛機，同時，該市場已基本枯竭。

So I think this is something you're going to see across the industry. This isn't just at Delta. And it's one of the constraints we talked about at Investor Day. That's going to keep us all pretty limited in the amount of capacity that we can produce. But I'd put my money on the Delta TechOps team because they're the best in the business and we'll figure this out. And we know this is a -- while it may hit the expense line, we know this is a long-term asset that's going to pay dividends for years to come.

所以我認為這是整個行業都會看到的事情。這不僅發生在達美航空。這是我們在投資者日討論的限制因素之一。這將使我們能夠生產的產能相當有限。但我會把錢投在 Delta TechOps 團隊上，因為他們是業界最好的，我們會解決這個問題的。我們知道這是一項——雖然它可能會觸及支出線，但我們知道這是一項長期資產，將在未來幾年內帶來股息。

Appreciate those thoughts. And maybe just for my follow-up on Pacific and Glen, can you just remind us where we are in China reopen? I think there's another round of expansion here in November. And then just broadly in Pacific, what are the markets away from China that you're excited about?

欣賞這些想法。也許只是為了我對太平洋和格倫的後續行動，你能提醒我們在中國的哪些地方重新開放了嗎？我認為十一月份還會有另一輪擴張。那麼，就太平洋地區而言，您對中國以外的哪些市場感到興奮？

Well, I think what we're very excited about is the success of our Incheon hub with Korean, and that has really even exceeded our expectations. We think it's the best place to connect to get to Southeast Asia from any one of our hubs or as a double connect. So really trying to leverage that, and we'll have some announcements on continuing to work to increase our capacity next year. But that's really been a lynchpin.

嗯，我認為我們非常興奮的是仁川韓語中心的成功，這甚至超出了我們的預期。我們認為，這是從我們的任何一個樞紐或作為雙聯連接前往東南亞的最佳地點。因此，我們真的在努力利用這一點，明年我們將發布一些關於繼續努力提高產能的公告。但這確實是一個關鍵。

South Pacific has been a really great surprise for us. The demand there really in tune with that same high demand for leisure destinations. So that's been doing very well as well as Japan. As you know, Japan was closed for a couple of years and our Japanese franchise is doing quite well. So you put the Pacific together, and if you recall, for years, we were telling our investors to hold on. We've got this restructuring coming. We had the wrong airplanes. We were at the wrong airports. And it took us many years to get to where we wanted to be. But we're finally there and we're producing great returns in the Pacific, and we're excited about our opportunities moving forward.

南太平洋給我們帶來了很大的驚喜。那裡的需求確實與休閒目的地的高需求一致。所以這和日本一樣做得很好。如您所知，日本已經關閉了幾年，而我們的日本特許經營權表現得相當不錯。所以你把太平洋地區放在一起，如果你還記得的話，多年來我們一直告訴投資人要堅持下去。我們即將進行重組。我們坐錯飛機了。我們去錯機場了。我們花了很多年才到達我們想去的地方。但我們終於實現了這一點，並且在太平洋地區獲得了巨大的回報，我們對未來的機會感到興奮。

Appreciate the detailed thoughts.

欣賞詳細的想法。

China, I didn't say -- China, of course. We went from essentially double daily in Detroit -- double weekly, I'm sorry, in Detroit and Seattle to 10x a week, with Seattle moving to daily and Detroit moving to 3x. So -- and we'll see if there's another wave of this. I think the first thing we have to see is, is there demand for the capacity that's going into market right now? And we'll keep you abreast of that as we move forward on China reopening.

中國，我沒有說──當然是中國。我們從底特律基本上每天兩次——抱歉，底特律和西雅圖每週兩次，增加到每週 10 次，西雅圖改為每天一次，底特律改為每週 3 次。所以——我們會看看是否還會出現另一波浪潮。我認為我們首先要看到的是，對目前進入市場的產能是否有需求？當我們推進中國重新開放時，我們將隨時向您通報最新情況。

Your next question is coming from Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·迪多拉。

Ed, a couple of questions. I just kind of want to bring it back to some things discussed at Investor Day. I guess maybe first, just on capacity growth. I know you gave us a little color about how you're thinking about 1Q kind of domestic versus international. But the mid-single-digit growth that you talked about in 2024. I guess in this fuel environment, would you consider that growth rate as reasonable or aspirational at this point in time?

艾德，有幾個問題。我只是想把它帶回投資者日討論的一些事情上。我想也許首先是產能成長。我知道您向我們透露了您對 1Q 國內與國際的看法。但是您談到的 2024 年中個位數成長。我想在這種燃料環境下，您認為此時的成長率是合理的還是理想的？

Well, it's probably more a question for Glen than myself. But at my level, as I just said in my last comments, I hear -- my sense would be any capacity that you hear from us in terms of plans or the industry, you should read as somewhat aspirational because there still are tremendous constraints in the marketplace in terms of delivering that growth.

嗯，這可能更多是格倫的問題，而不是我自己的問題。但在我的層面上，正如我在上一次評論中所說，我聽到——我的感覺是，你從我們這裡聽到的任何在計劃或行業方面的能力，你都應該理解為有些抱負，因為在這方面仍然存在巨大的限制。市場在實現這種成長方面。

If all goes well and we get all the parts and we get the planes on time, and we have the labor ready and ATC is not an issue and fuel prices stay reasonable, yes, that's what's going to happen. But if you look over the last 2 to 3 years, we continue to evolve it. So those are just points in time estimates as to what we could do. As to what we actually will be able to do, I think we'll probably across the board to be a little less than that.

如果一切順利，我們得到了所有零件，我們準時得到了飛機，我們已經準備好了勞動力，ATC 不是問題，燃油價格保持合理，是的，這就是將會發生的事情。但如果你回顧過去 2 到 3 年，我們會繼續改進它。所以這些只是我們可以做的事情的時間點估計。至於我們實際上能夠做什麼，我認為我們可能會全面做到這一點。

And I would just add a comment. About half of that is run rate of what's in there as we enter the first quarter of next year. So the real number is half of low single digits, which is very low single digits.

我只想添加一條評論。其中大約一半是我們進入明年第一季時的運行率。所以實際數字是低個位數的一半，這是非常低的個位數。

Yes. Got it. Makes sense. And then I guess, Dan, just on cost and CASM next year. Obviously, with capacity moving around, obviously, the maintenance costs continuing into next year. Can you just give us a sense of your level of confidence in 2024 CASM-Ex being able to be down kind of low single digits? Or should we think about that differently as well?

是的。知道了。說得通。 Dan，我想，明年只是關於成本和 CASM。顯然，隨著產能的轉移，維護成本顯然會持續到明年。您能否告訴我們您對 2024 年 CASM-Ex 能夠下降到低個位數的信心程度？或者我們也應該以不同的方式思考這個問題嗎？

As I mentioned earlier, we're still in the middle of our planning process. So all these pieces are coming together, right, capacity, along with all the things that we've talked about regarding the maintenance, we're spending certainly a lot more time on that, given all the moving pieces in the industry and elements that we talked about.

正如我之前提到的，我們仍處於規劃過程中。因此，所有這些部分都聚集在一起，對吧，容量，以及我們討論過的有關維護的所有事情，考慮到行業中的所有移動部分和元素，我們肯定在這方面花費了更多的時間。我們談過的。

Yes. Dan's comments earlier about this is going to be a pivot to optimization is a big deal. And maintenance is a part of that. Maintenance unlocks the ability to drive the efficiencies across the enterprise. And we're right in the middle of the planning process. So we're not trying to dodge your question. We will give you, at the typical time at the start of the year, what we think we can do.

是的。丹早些時候關於這將成為優化的關鍵的評論是一件大事。維護是其中的一部分。維護可以提高整個企業的效率。我們正處於規劃過程的中間。所以我們並不是想迴避你的問題。我們將在年初的典型時間向您提供我們認為我們可以做的事情。

Your next question is coming from Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs.

你們的下一個問題來自高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

Ed, on CNBC this morning, you called out a pickup in corporate bookings. Could we just dig into that a little bit more? What have you seen since Labor Day on volumes or revenue from corporate? Any industries or regions that are bigger drivers or it's really across the board? And anything on maybe corporate booking windows today versus maybe a couple of months ago and they're still longer than pre COVID, I appreciate it.

艾德，今天早上在 CNBC 節目中，您提到了企業預訂量的回升。我們可以再深入研究一下嗎？自勞動節以來，您對企業的銷售或收入有何看法？有哪些產業或地區是更大的驅動力，或確實是全面的？今天企業預訂窗口上的任何內容與幾個月前相比，仍然比新冠疫情之前更長，我對此表示讚賞。

Well, we said on the last call that we anticipated post Labor Day that we'd see volumes of corporate travel pick up. And indeed, we're seeing that. I think Glen mentioned a couple of sectors. The tech sector and the financial services sector is areas that we're seeing double-digit growth. We have, I'd say across the board, we're seeing increases. And it's -- corporate travel as it's come back, it comes back and then plateaus, comes back and plateaus. And I think you'll see another wave of return. I think a lot of it's being driven by the return to office and getting into the new normal work patterns, which many companies are still sorting out for themselves.

嗯，我們在上次電話會議上表示，我們預計勞動節後商務旅行量將會增加。事實上，我們也看到了這一點。我認為格倫提到了幾個部門。科技業和金融服務業是我們看到兩位數成長的領域。我想說的是，我們看到了全面的成長。商務旅行捲土重來，捲土重來，然後趨於平穩，捲土重來，又趨於平穩。我認為你會看到另一波回歸。我認為這很大程度上是由重返辦公室和進入新的正常工作模式所推動的，許多公司仍在為自己進行整理。

But it's healthy to see and it's one of the distinguishing factors between us and some of the carriers that are on the other end of the fare spectrum. So one of the many differentiating factors that is enabling us to grow revenues at the pace we are.

但這是健康的，也是我們與一些票價範圍另一端的航空公司之間的區別因素之一。因此，使我們能夠以現有速度成長收入的眾多差異化因素之一。

Makes a lot of sense. And then 1, maybe this is for Dan. Can you just speak to how the air traffic liability is trending year-to-date into the fourth quarter versus your expectations at the start of the year? I know we kicked off the year with really strong first quarter performance on that ETL build. Should we be aware of any impact from normalization of booking windows versus last year, just given the pickup in corporate volume you're seeing?

很有道理。然後1，也許這是給丹的。您能否談談今年迄今為止第四季的空中交通責任趨勢與您年初的預期相比如何？我知道我們以 ETL 構建的第一季非常強勁的表現開啟了新的一年。考慮到您所看到的企業數量的增加，我們是否應該意識到預訂窗口正常化與去年相比有何影響？

No, I'd say it's performing as we expected. We're starting to maybe get back to a little bit more of the traditional seasonality. As we were restoring, it was a little bit different. And if you look at historical patterns, you're only down mid-teens as you go through into the fourth quarter, and that's kind of what we saw as we wrapped up the third quarter here. And so no, the other element that you have in there is you certainly have -- we've had very friendly policies as it relates to credits, and customers have gotten really used to using them. .

不，我想說它的表現符合我們的預期。我們可能開始回歸傳統的季節性。當我們恢復時，情況有點不同。如果你看一下歷史模式，當你進入第四季時，你的股價只下降了十幾歲左右，這就是我們在第三季結束時所看到的情況。所以不，你擁有的另一個元素是你當然擁有的——我們有非常友好的政策，因為它與信用有關，而且客戶已經真正習慣了使用它們。 。

And we think that's obviously long-term beneficial that people have confidence to book and travel but also consume when they don't travel. And those, we've seen very consistent issuance and usage rates on them.

我們認為，這顯然是長期有益的，因為人們有信心預訂和旅行，但在不旅行時也會消費。我們看到它們的發行率和使用率非常一致。

Your next question is coming from Mike Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg。

Glen, you called out a couple of sectors that were underperforming from a corporate perspective. I mean, I think of any carrier probably the most indexed to the automotive sector and then sort of the media sector with the writers' and actors' strike. What sort of drag do you actually think that had on your corporates, at least in the month of September and maybe what you're seeing right now?

格倫，您指出了從企業角度來看表現不佳的幾個行業。我的意思是，我認為任何一家航空公司都可能最受汽車產業的影響，然後是媒體產業與作家和演員罷工的關係。您實際上認為這對您的公司造成了什麼樣的拖累，至少在 9 月份，也許您現在所看到的情況是這樣？

Well, clearly, I'll start with Los Angeles and the entertainment production strikes that are ongoing. That has had a not insignificant change in the business travel to and from Los Angeles, as well as now the UAW strike, which has curtailed a significant amount of the business in Detroit. As you point out, we're very big in both of those sectors. And what I'm really encouraged about is despite those 2 kind of being things that we should look forward to as positives next year, that our total corporate revenues are still accelerating.

嗯，很明顯，我將從洛杉磯和正在進行的娛樂製作罷工開始。這對往返洛杉磯的商務旅行以及現在的美國汽車工人聯合會罷工產生了不小的變化，罷工導致底特律的大量業務受到影響。正如您所指出的，我們在這兩個領域都規模很大。令我真正感到鼓舞的是，儘管我們明年應該期待這兩件事是積極的，但我們的公司總收入仍在加速成長。

So despite those 2 being a drag on them, and I think hopefully, those are both resolves fairly quickly here and we can get back to a normal business level. But you are right, spot on, that we are probably the most impacted by those 2 sectors.

因此，儘管這兩個問題對他們造成了拖累，但我認為希望這些問題都能很快解決，我們可以恢復到正常的業務水平。但你說得對，我們可能是受這兩個產業影響最大的。

Great. And then just a quick one to Dan or Ed. I didn't see in the release a reiteration of the $7-plus for 2024. I know you're still mid-budget, but just based on the trajectory and everything you're seeing now, that number is still fine?

偉大的。然後快速向 Dan 或 Ed 報告一下。我沒有在新聞稿中看到重申 2024 年 7 美元以上。我知道您的預算仍處於中等水平，但僅根據軌跡和您現在看到的一切，這個數字仍然可以嗎？

That's our plan, Mike. As I mentioned that we gave that guide in December of 2021, as long as free cash and others and we're on track.

這就是我們的計劃，麥克。正如我所提到的，我們在 2021 年 12 月提供了該指南，只要有免費現金和其他資金，我們就走上正軌。

Your next question is coming from Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

你們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Glen, I'm probably going to ask Jamie's initial SkyMiles data mining question in a different way. And based on data that you have, do you have any evidence that traditional domestic travelers have been flying internationally more often in 2023, maybe people doing their first or kind of rare international trips. Just trying to see if there's any truth or data to back up the thesis that there has been substitution of domestic with people flying internationally this year.

Glen，我可能會以不同的方式問 Jamie 最初的「飛凡哩程常客計畫」資料探勘問題。根據您掌握的數據，您是否有任何證據表明，2023 年傳統國內旅客更頻繁地搭乘國際航班，也許是人們第一次或罕見的國際旅行。只是想看看是否有任何事實或數據來支持今年人們乘坐國際航班取代國內航班的論點。

Well, I'd say that's a very broad question, and clearly, there's been an expansion of international. But if you think about domestic and the volume differential between the number of seats we have every day domestically and the number of seats we have every day to Europe, it would be very hard to track those incremental visits back to people who did not fly domestically because it's such a small piece of domestic travel in terms of total volumes. And so while clearly, the spend has been very robust for long-haul in general, we have not seen a diminishing of short-haul leisure.

嗯，我想說這是一個非常廣泛的問題，而且顯然，國際化正在擴大。但如果你考慮一下國內航班，以及我們每天國內航班座位數與每天飛往歐洲航班座位數之間的差異，那麼就很難追踪那些不乘坐國內航班的人的增量訪問量因為就國內旅遊總量而言，它只佔很小的一部分。因此，雖然很明顯，整體而言長途旅行的支出非常強勁，但我們並沒有看到短途休閒的減少。

Got it. That's really helpful. And maybe as a follow-up, kind of feels like Transpacific has not quite been the explosion of pent-up demand that we saw in domestic and Transatlantic when they initially opened, but it looks like 2024 might be a better year for that. Is there any way you think that the historical profitability in that region, which has not been great to say the least, can be better when that initial kind of flow-through of demand comes through with pricing the way it might potentially be?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。也許作為後續行動，感覺跨太平洋航線並沒有像我們在國內和跨大西洋航線剛開業時看到的那樣，被壓抑的需求爆發，但看起來 2024 年可能是更好的一年。您是否認為，當最初的需求流動以及潛在的定價方式實現時，該地區的歷史盈利能力（至少可以說不是很好）會更好？

Well, I'd disagree with you on your premise there that Pacific has been a laggard. Pacific has been quite robust, and I think we indicated these are our record profits in terms of margins and total profitability in the Pacific. And if you look at the Pacific, absent of China, it's been fully restored. So I think we're very pleased with the demand to the Pacific, and we're -- right now, that's where our capacity is sitting up most in the fourth quarter and where it will be in the first and through next year. And so -- and we're very enthusiastic about the results we're getting there.

好吧，我不同意你的假設，即太平洋航空​​一直是落後者。太平洋地區一直相當強勁，我認為我們表明，就太平洋地區的利潤率和總盈利能力而言，這些利潤是創紀錄的。如果你看看沒有中國的太平洋地區，它已經完全恢復了。因此，我認為我們對太平洋地區的需求非常滿意，目前，這是我們第四季運力最多的地方，也是第一季和明年的運力所在地。因此，我們對所取得的成果感到非常興奮。

Your next question is coming from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

你們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登‧奧格倫斯基。

Glen, I know you've called out your corporate travel here being up in coastal hub strength, but can you talk to maybe any areas of weakness domestically? And is there like diverging trends with your Main Cabin revenue?

格倫，我知道您已經指出您在這裡的商務旅行在沿海樞紐的實力上有所提升，但您能談談國內的弱點嗎？您的經濟艙收入是否有類似的不同趨勢？

Well, I think, yes, we've called out diverging trends with Main Cabin. Those have been pretty consistent, though, throughout the recovery is it's been led by premium products and services. So that's not inconsistent between quarters. I think it's actually relatively flat in terms of the -- how much premium is driving there. And geographically, I think what we're really excited about is the coastal hub investments we've made and particularly New York, that's something we're looking for in '24. We've -- we see a lot of momentum in the Northeast and New York in particular, as things to look forward to in '24.

嗯，我想，是的，我們已經指出了主艙的不同趨勢。不過，在整個復甦過程中，這些都是相當一致的，都是由優質產品和服務所引領的。所以季度之間並不不一致。我認為就溢價而言，實際上相對持平。從地理位置來看，我認為我們真正感到興奮的是我們所做的沿海樞紐投資，特別是紐約，這是我們在 24 年所尋求的。我們看到了東北部和紐約的強勁勢頭，特別是 24 年值得期待的事情。

Okay. And then on the outlook for next year, growing with your JVs on the international side, how does the changes in Mexico impact this as they move to a Category 1 with the FAA?

好的。然後，關於明年的展望，隨著你們的合資企業在國際方面的發展，墨西哥的變化對它們與 FAA 轉為 1 類有何影響？

Right. Mexico has been a great source of strength for us through the last year, and we see continued strength in those Mexican business. And I think when you think about what we read in the press and what you all see in the onshoring and moving factories from Asia down into Mexico, we've seen really an incredible strength in demand from the business sector in Mexico, and that's looking really robust into 2024.

正確的。去年，墨西哥一直是我們的重要力量源泉，我們看到這些墨西哥業務的持續成長。我認為，當你想想我們在媒體上讀到的內容以及大家在將工廠從亞洲遷往墨西哥時所看到的情況時，我們確實看到了墨西哥商業部門令人難以置信的需求強勁，而且這正在尋找到 2024 年確實強勁。

And working with Aeromexico now, we really couldn't do much with them. These are things we wanted to do in the past. You see us coordinating with them. We have ATI joint venture. So we've been working very closely with them to continue to work on where we see strength and being able to serve those markets better, including the auto sector in Detroit and including Atlanta as a primary gateway to Mexico primary and secondary airports.

現在與墨西哥航空公司合作，我們確實無法與他們做太多事情。這些都是我們過去想做的事。你看到我們與他們協調。我們有ATI合資公司。因此，我們一直與他們密切合作，繼續在我們認為有優勢的領域開展工作，並能夠更好地服務這些市場，包括底特律的汽車行業，以及將亞特蘭大作為通往墨西哥一級和二級機場的主要門戶。

Your next question is coming from Helane Becker from TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

Just on -- with respect to -- as you think about travel next summer on the North Atlantic, especially where U.S. citizens are going to need visas, how are you thinking about communicating that to people as they book trips? Is that going to be in the reservation process or follow-ups? Or how do you avoid surprises?

就在您考慮明年夏天在北大西洋旅行時，特別是美國公民需要簽證的地方，您如何考慮在人們預訂旅行時向他們傳達這一點？這是在預訂過程還是後續行動？或如何避免意外？

Helane, it's Peter Carter. I say we will make sure our customers are aware of the visa requirement at various points along the purchasing path and the journey. And I will tell you that the nice thing about the new visa requirement is it is a e-visa, so it's a fairly straightforward process that we think will take about 24 hours.

海蘭，我是彼得卡特。我說，我們將確保我們的客戶了解購買路徑和旅程中各個環節的簽證要求。我會告訴您，新簽證要求的好處是它是電子簽證，因此這是一個相當簡單的過程，我們認為大約需要 24 小時。

Yes. I think it's like Australia, right, where it's pretty quick unless it's not, I think. Okay, that's helpful.

是的。我認為這就像澳大利亞，對吧，那裡的速度相當快，除非不是，我想。好的，這很有幫助。

And then the other question I had was just on the changes to Israel. How big actually is that in your total -- in the total market? It's a lot of ASMs but it can't be that big in terms of, I guess, exposure?

我的另一個問題是關於以色列的變化。在整個市場中，這實際上有多大？ ASM 數量很多，但我猜，就曝光度而言，不可能有那麼大？

It's a little over 1 point of ASMs. And we're not going to give an exact number but it's included -- the revenue hit is included in our fourth quarter guide so we've extended at least through October and then we'll see what happens. The reason we're not saying how much exposure there is, is we don't know how this will evolve yet so we're staying very fluid. But I think we feel very confident that we can get inside of our guidance ranges here with Israel kind of in a worst-case scenario.

比 ASM 多一點點。我們不會給出確切的數字，但它已經包含在內——收入衝擊已包含在我們的第四季度指南中，因此我們至少將延期延長到 10 月份，然後我們將看看會發生什麼。我們之所以沒有透露有多少暴露，是因為我們還不知道這將如何演變，所以我們保持非常不穩定。但我認為我們非常有信心，我們可以在以色列最壞的情況下進入我們的指導範圍。

Matthew, we'll now go to our final analyst question.

馬修，我們現在來回答最後一個分析師問題。

Your last question is coming Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

你的最後一個問題是來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

And I wanted to ask you a question. You made a comment about you're leaning into the cost curve and really leading the industry here with pilot pay and the like. So the question comes, how do we think about your double-digit margins today versus low-cost carriers and what they'll report in Q3 and margin moving pieces maybe into 2024, if you want to provide that or maybe the Delta versus Delta and other carriers?

我想問你一個問題。您評論說您正在傾向於成本曲線，並且在飛行員薪酬等方面真正領先於該行業。所以問題來了，我們如何看待你們今天與低成本航空公司相比的兩位數利潤率，以及他們將在第三季度報告什麼，以及利潤率可能會轉移到2024 年，如果你想提供的話，或者也許達美航空與達美航空和其他運營商？

Sheila, you should look at our '24 guide that we gave you with our 3-year plan. The good news at Delta is that we have all of our labor costs at the new market across the board today in posting those double-digit margins. So to the extent other carriers need to be increasing their labor cost in future negotiations, they're just going to be chasing the Delta cost.

Sheila，您應該看看我們為您提供的 24 年指南以及我們的 3 年計劃。達美航空的好消息是，我們今天在新市場上全面降低了所有勞動成本，並實現了兩位數的利潤率。因此，如果其他航空公司在未來的談判中需要增加勞動成本，他們只會追逐達美航空的成本。

And I think that conversion of industry rates is something we've talked about as kind of another opportunity as we look at trying to make sure we're all running a better business here, and we're not -- we have the same incentives to make sure that our costs are finding their way into our pricing.

我認為行業利率的轉換是我們討論過的另一個機會，因為我們試圖確保我們都在這裡經營更好的業務，但我們沒有——我們有相同的激勵措施確保我們的成本融入我們的定價中。

Sure. No, makes sense. And if I could ask 1 more, a lot on Delta TechOps. Obviously, a big asset for Delta right now. Anything you could talk about? I think you've previously said GTF shop visits are running at 70 to 80 engines. I don't know if that was only GTF or all engines ramping to potentially 400. Maybe if you could just give us the -- talk about the opportunity longer term with Delta TechOps and what utilization is?

當然。不，有道理。如果我可以再問 1 個關於 Delta TechOps 的問題。顯然，這對達美航空來說是一筆巨大的資產。有什麼可以聊的嗎？我想您之前曾說過 GTF 商店訪問的引擎數量為 70 至 80 台。我不知道這是否只是 GTF 還是所有引擎都可能增加到 400。也許您可以給我們談談與 Delta TechOps 的長期機會以及利用率是多少？

Yes. Talked about it at baseline this year, TechOps for Geared Turbofan engine overhauls would be in the 150, 160 range. We have built capacity to take that to -- up to 350 and continue to discuss long-term -- medium- and longer-term capacity needs with Pratt related to that. So we talked about it at Investor Day, very optimistic about our position, not only the heritage that we have and the great expertise that we have in the Delta TechOps team, but our positioning as it relates to being on all the key next-generation platforms, whether that's Geared Turbofan, whether that's rolls and also the LEAP engine create a real set of opportunities for us as we think about this business and multiples of what it can be today over the medium and long term.

是的。今年基線時談到，齒輪傳動渦輪風扇發動機大修的技術運作將在 150、160 範圍內。我們已經建立了能力，將其數量增加到 350 個，並繼續與 Pratt 討論與之相關的長期、中長期能力需求。因此，我們在投資者日討論了這個問題，對我們的立場非常樂觀，不僅是我們擁有的傳統和我們在Delta TechOps 團隊中擁有的豐富專業知識，而且是我們的定位，因為它涉及到所有關鍵的下一代平台，無論是齒輪傳動渦輪風扇發動機，無論是滾筒還是 LEAP 發動機，都為我們創造了一系列真正的機會，因為我們在考慮這項業務以及從中長期來看它可以達到今天的倍數。

That will wrap the analyst portion of the call. I'll now turn it over to Tim Mapes to start the media questions.

這將結束電話會議的分析師部分。現在我將把它交給蒂姆·梅普斯來開始媒體提問。

Thank you, Julie. Matthew, if we could, as we transition from the analyst questions to those from the members of the media, maybe repeat the instructions for everyone, please.

謝謝你，朱莉。馬修，如果可以的話，當我們從分析師的問題轉向媒體成員的問題時，也許請向大家重複這些指示。

At this time, we'll be conducting a Q&A session for media questions.

這次，我們將針對媒體問題進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question is coming from Dawn Gilbertson from Wall Street Journal.

你的第一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的道恩‧吉伯特森。

Ed, I wonder if you could give us any more color, Ed or Glen, on the reaction to the SkyMiles changes and when you expect to announce the things you might be rolling back or changing?

Ed，我想知道 Ed 或 Glen，您是否可以給我們更多關於對“飛凡里程常客計劃”變化的反應以及您預計何時宣布您可能會回滾或更改的內容？

Dawn, we've -- I've mentioned publicly over the last couple of weeks that we're certainly receiving good feedback from our customers with respect to the changes. I have indicated that we had too many changes rolled out at the same time, and we needed to go back and reassess the planned rollout for the new qualification levels.

黎明，我在過去幾週公開提到，我們確實從客戶那裡收到了有關這些變化的良好回饋。我已經指出，我們同時推出了太多更改，我們需要返回並重新評估新資格等級的計劃推出。

I mentioned this morning on the CNBC interview, there's 2 things, though, that are common throughout all of the feedback. One is there is the intense loyalty to Delta, which is really heartwarming to see. The loyalty to this brand is great. We've worked hard to build it and we maintained it. We will continue to maintain that. There should be no question about that.

我今天早上在 CNBC 採訪中提到，有兩件事在所有回饋中都是常見的。一是對達美航空的強烈忠誠度，真是令人心曠神怡。人們對這個品牌的忠誠度很高。我們努力建造並維護它。我們將繼續保持這一點。對此應該沒有疑問。

And secondly, that most everyone also agrees that something has to be done because everyone sees that the premium number of customers that we continue to build are in excess of the premium assets that we have to offer. And so figuring out how to better rationalize and make certain that the service levels for our premium customers are where they need to be is, there's various ways to get it. We've received a lot of ideas as to different ways to think about it, and you'll be hearing from us in the coming days.

其次，大多數人也同意必須採取一些措施，因為每個人都看到我們繼續建立的優質客戶數量超過了我們所能提供的優質資產。因此，要弄清楚如何更好地合理化並確保我們的優質客戶的服務水準達到他們需要的水平，有多種方法可以實現。我們收到了很多關於不同思考方式的想法，您將在未來幾天收到我們的消息。

Okay. If I could just have 1 quick follow-up on that front. What is driving -- in terms of the reaction, I mean, are you seeing just feedback or are you seeing an impact on credit card sign-ups and/or cancellations? I mean, what's driving this pretty quick change to your initial plans?

好的。如果我能在這方面進行 1 次快速跟進就好了。是什麼在推動——就反應而言，我的意思是，您是否只看到反饋，或者您是否看到對信用卡註冊和/或取消的影響？我的意思是，是什麼促使您如此迅速地改變最初的計劃？

Well, it's the feedback. It's not -- no, we're not seeing any change in trajectory rather on acquisitions or changes in spend levels. Everything continues to stay intact, as Glen, I think mentioned during some of his comments, this is good feedback that we're seeing and candidly, with some of it, I agree with them.

嗯，這就是回饋。這不是——不，我們沒有看到任何軌跡變化，而是收購或支出水準的變化。一切都繼續保持不變，正如格倫在他的一些評論中提到的那樣，這是我們看到的很好的反饋，坦率地說，我同意他們的一些觀點。

Your next question is coming from Alison Sider from Wall Street Journal.

你們的下一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的艾莉森‧賽德。

There's been some analysis recently about sort of the potential impact of cost savings that people really started taking weight loss drugs like Ozempic in big numbers. Is that something you look at, at all? As you factor that into your fuel projections or anything like that?

最近有一些關於人們真正開始大量服用 Ozempic 等減肥藥物節省成本的潛在影響的分析。這是你所看的東西嗎？當您將其納入燃料預測或類似因素時？

No, we don't, Ali.

不，我們不，阿里。

And then if I could follow up. I was also curious on potential Israel evacuation flights. I know there's ongoing discussions with the government on this. But would Delta be open to flying to Israel under a charter if the government asks or if there was a craft activation? Or would you rather just fly to points outside of Israel? Is there any openness, I guess, to flying kind of under those circumstances?

然後我是否可以跟進。我也對以色列潛在的撤僑航班感到好奇。我知道正在與政府就此進行討論。但如果政府提出要求，或者如果有飛機啟動，達美航空是否會開放包機飛往以色列的航班？還是您寧願飛往以色列以外的地點？我想，在這種情況下，人們對飛行有任何開放的態度嗎？

There are discussions, as I've indicated. Right now, we're looking at providing some additional lift to Europe to get people out of Europe. But no, we don't have any plans to be flying into Israel. It's considered unsafe for a U.S. carrier to operate in that airspace currently.

正如我所指出的，存在一些討論。目前，我們正在考慮為歐洲提供一些額外的幫助，以幫助人們離開歐洲。但不，我們沒有任何飛往以色列的計劃。目前美國航空公司在該空域運作被認為是不安全的。

Your next question is coming from Mary Schlangenstein from Bloomberg News.

您的下一個問題來自彭博新聞社的瑪麗·施蘭根斯坦。

I wanted to ask real quickly, with the ongoing slot waiver situation in New York where the airlines were asked to reduce capacity because of the congestion in the air traffic controller shortage, can you talk about how much of that Delta is taking advantage of? And whether you expect that if it continues long term to start to have some significant impact? Also whether you're redeploying that capacity into other markets?

我想快速問一下，鑑於紐約正在進行的航班時刻豁免情況，由於空中交通管制員短缺而造成擁堵，航空公司被要求減少運力，您能談談達美航空利用了多少優勢嗎？您是否期望這種情況長期持續下去會開始產生一些重大影響？另外，您是否會將這些產能重新部署到其他市場？

Well, thanks for that question. Yes, we're planning on using the entirety of the slot waiver which is, I believe, 10% of our flights into and out of Kennedy and LaGuardia in order to help with the airspace congestion issues that are surrounding those airports right now. So what we're trying to do is have minimal impact. We will not withdraw from any individual markets. We will thin out some frequencies. We'll put some larger gauge in.

嗯，謝謝你提出這個問題。是的，我們計劃使用全部航班時刻豁免，即我們進出甘迺迪和拉瓜迪亞機場航班的 10%，以幫助解決目前這些機場周圍的空域擁堵問題。所以我們要做的就是將影響降到最低。我們不會退出任何個別市場。我們將稀疏一些頻率。我們將放入一些更大的儀表。

And any of the assets that are freed up from New York will get redeployed into other parts of our network for now. But it shouldn't really be very different than the summer. As you know, that's rolled forward from the summer, which we had 10% out, and that's just extending it through the winter. So you won't see really, I think, any dramatic changes to our schedule versus where we're sitting today.

目前從紐約釋放的任何資產都將重新部署到我們網路的其他部分。但這應該與夏天沒有太大不同。如你所知，這是從夏季開始向前滾動的，我們已經取消了 10%，而這只是將其延長到冬季。因此，我認為，與我們今天所處的位置相比，您不會真正看到我們的日程安排發生任何巨大變化。

Does that become a broader problem for you if that continues to be extended?

如果這種情況繼續延長，這對您來說是否會成為一個更廣泛的問題？

I think the broader problem is not being able to operate in the New York airspace. And so I think we're working very closely with the government to see what we can do to improve the situation there. It was very difficult on our customers this summer. And certainly, we're all hoping for some relief by next summer.

我認為更廣泛的問題是無法在紐約領空運作。因此，我認為我們正在與政府密切合作，看看我們能做些什麼來改善那裡的情況。今年夏天對我們的客戶來說非常困難。當然，我們都希望明年夏天能有所緩解。

And Mary, we really -- this is Peter Carter, we really appreciate the FAA providing that relief and acknowledging that there is a constraint in the Northeast with respect to the staffing of air traffic controllers. And frankly, that's the thing that we need to really solve as an industry.

瑪麗，我們真的——這是彼得·卡特，我們非常感謝美國聯邦航空局提供的這種救濟，並承認東北部地區空中交通管制員的人員配置存在限制。坦白說，這就是我們作為一個行業真正需要解決的問題。

Your next question is coming from Leslie Josephs from CNBC.

你的下一個問題來自 CNBC 的萊斯利·約瑟夫斯 (Leslie Josephs)。

We keep seeing air fares fall, and I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about what kind of discounting you're having to do in the fall. And then have you made any capacity changes on days when people might have traveled in the off-peak and maybe they're going back to more traditional bookings, if that's the case?

我們看到機票價格不斷下跌，我想知道您是否可以談談您在秋季必須提供什麼樣的折扣。然後，您是否在人們可能在非高峰出行的日子裡進行了任何運力調整，也許他們會回到更傳統的預訂（如果是這樣的話）？

Sure. I think the most recent data that came out this morning had been flat to up slightly month-over-month, so I don't think that as an industry level, that's a good indication. What we've seen is that actually June was our lowest point in terms of year-over-year average fares and it's moved up for us since then. And that's really driven by the premium side and the success we've had in terms of selling more premium and the fares we're getting for our premium products and services.

當然。我認為今天早上公佈的最新數據環比持平或略有上升，所以我認為從行業層面來看，這不是一個好的跡象。我們所看到的是，實際上六月是我們的同比平均票價的最低點，從那時起我們的平均票價一直在上升。這實際上是由高端產品和我們在銷售更多高端產品以及我們為高端產品和服務獲得的票價方面所取得的成功所推動的。

So yes, at the bottom end, there's some discounting. There's also some fare initiatives. So it's always a very fluid situation. And right now, I think we're very -- we're calling it stable between third quarter and fourth quarter.

所以，是的，在底部，有一些折扣。還有一些票價舉措。所以情況總是非常不穩定。現在，我認為我們非常——我們稱其在第三季和第四季之間保持穩定。

And the fares that you're discounting to, is that like on par with 2019 or is that -- like is there a kind of a reference point or...

你打折的票價是與 2019 年持平還是——比如有一個參考點或…

Yes. Certain markets are, certain markets are above. So I think the market basket is there -- at the very bottom end, they may be slightly below where they were in '19, but not really. There's always a fare in a market that is below, but in general, they're not.

是的。某些市場是，某些市場是上面。所以我認為市場籃子就在那裡——在最底端，它們可能略低於 19 年的水平，但事實並非如此。市場上總會有低於價格的票價，但一般情況並非如此。

Thank you, Leslie. Matthew, we have time for 1 final question, please.

謝謝你，萊斯利。馬修，我們有時間回答最後一個問題。

Your last question is coming from David Slotnick from TPG.

你的最後一個問題來自 TPG 的 David Slotnick。

Going back to the loyalty program, were you surprised by the customer reaction and I suppose the degree of it? And what were you sort of expecting instead of that [stuff]?

回到忠誠度計劃，您對客戶的反應感到驚訝嗎？我想它的程度是什麼？除了那些[東西]之外，你還期待什麼？

We were certainly expecting some feedback. And by the way, some of the feedback we've received is very positive and encourages us not to make any changes. So there wasn't any 1 cohort that was silent on the matter. We have a full 360 view of the perspective. But it gives us a chance to sit back, reflect on it. And there were points about the program that I thought that we could make some modifications to. There still will be changes to the program. I've been very clear about that, but we're going to make modifications to what we announced.

我們當然期待一些回饋。順便說一句，我們收到的一些回饋非常積極，鼓勵我們不要做出任何改變。所以沒有任何一個群體對此事保持沉默。我們擁有完整的 360 度視角。但這給了我們一個坐下來反思的機會。我認為關於該程序的一些要點我們可以進行一些修改。該計劃仍將發生變化。我對此已經說得很清楚了，但我們將對我們宣布的內容進行修改。

And just a follow-up. Was American Express expecting any changes to the premium card demand just with the lounge access? Do they think that, that's potentially going to fall? And if so, will that impact your royalty revenue?

只是後續行動。美國運通是否期望僅透過休息室使用權就可以改變高級卡的需求？他們認為這可能會下降嗎？如果是這樣，這會影響您的版稅收入嗎？

American Express, we, of course, did this with full back-and-forth knowledge, so we did this together with American Express. And if anything, since we've announced it, we've seen a shift to higher premium card acquisitions. So I think we're well within from that perspective where we thought we'd be.

當然，美國運通公司是在充分了解情況的情況下做到這一點的，所以我們與美國運通公司一起做到了這一點。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是自從我們宣布這一消息以來，我們已經看到了向更高溢價卡收購的轉變。因此，我認為從我們所認為的角度來看，我們已經完全實現了目標。

Thank you, David. And Matthew, I think that will conclude our call.

謝謝你，大衛。馬修，我想我們的電話就到此結束了。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您今天的參與。