達美航空 (DAL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Delta Air Lines December Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call.

大家早安，歡迎參加達美航空 12 月季度和 2023 年全年財務業績電話會議。

My name is Matthew, and I will be your coordinator. (Operator Instructions)

我的名字是馬修，我將擔任您的協調員。 （操作員指令）

As a reminder, this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

提醒一下，本次通話正在錄音。 （操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Julie Stewart, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁朱莉·史都華 (Julie Stewart)。請繼續。

Thank you, Matthew, and good morning. Thanks for joining us for our December quarter and full year 2023 Earnings Call.

謝謝你，馬修，早安。感謝您參加我們的 12 月季度和 2023 年全年財報電話會議。

Joining us from Atlanta today are our CEO, Ed Bastian; our President, Glen Hauenstein; and our CFO, Dan Janki. Ed will open the call with an overview of Delta's performance and strategy. Glen will provide an update on the revenue environment, and Dan will discuss costs in our balance sheet. After the prepared remarks, we'll take analyst questions.

今天從亞特蘭大加入我們的有我們的執行長 Ed Bastian；我們的總裁 Glen Hauenstein；以及我們的財務長 Dan Janki。艾德將在電話會議開始時概述達美航空的業績和策略。格倫將提供有關收入環境的最新信息，丹將討論我們的資產負債表中的成本。在準備好的發言之後，我們將回答分析師的問題。

We ask that you please limit yourself to 1 question and a brief follow-up so that we can get to as many of you as possible. After the analyst Q&A, we'll move to our media questions.

我們要求您將問題限制在 1 個以內並進行簡短的跟進，以便我們盡可能回答您的問題。分析師問答結束後，我們將開始媒體提問。

As a reminder, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that may cause such differences are described in Delta's SEC filings.

提醒一下，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，代表我們對未來事件的信念或期望。所有前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。達美航空提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述了一些可能導致此類差異的因素。

We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and all results exclude special items unless otherwise noted. You can find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures on the Investor Relations page at ir.delta.com. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.

我們也將討論非公認會計準則財務指標，除非另有說明，所有結果均不包括特殊項目。您可以在 ir.delta.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到我們非公認會計準則指標的對帳表。說完這些，我會把電話轉給艾德。

Well, thank you, Julie, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us this morning. Earlier today, we reported our full year and December quarter results, posting Fourth Quarter earnings of $1.1 billion or $1.28 per share on record quarterly revenue that was 11% higher than 2022 and an operating margin of 10%. I want to sincerely thank the 100,000 strong Delta team for their outstanding work in delivering these results and serving our customers. Delta carried more travelers this holiday season than any other time in our history, and we delivered industry-leading operational performance, with the #1 system completion factor amongst our peer set throughout the December quarter.

好吧，謝謝你，朱莉，大家早安。感謝您今天上午加入我們。今天早些時候，我們報告了全年和 12 月季度的業績，第四季度收益為 11 億美元，即每股 1.28 美元，季度收入創歷史新高，比 2022 年高出 11%，營業利潤率為 10%。我要由衷感謝擁有十萬名員工的達美航空團隊，感謝他們為實現這些成果和為客戶提供優質服務所做的出色工作。達美航空在這個假日季節運送的旅客數量超過了我們歷史上的任何一個時期，並且我們實現了業界領先的營運績效，在整個 12 月季度，我們的系統完成率在同業中位居第一。

To put that in context, we carried 9 million customers, a record 9 million customers I'd add on 60,000 mainline flights over the holiday period with fewer than 40 cancellations in aggregate. Our December quarter results marked a strong close to year 2 of our 3-year plan.

具體來說，我們運送了 900 萬名乘客，創下了假期期間 60,000 個乾線航班運送乘客人數的記錄，總共取消了不到 40 趟航班。我們 12 月季度的業績標誌著我們三年計畫第二年的圓滿結束。

For the full year, we reported earnings of $6.25 per share, the second highest EPS result in our history on revenue that was 20% higher than the prior year. We delivered an 11.6% operating margin and pretax income of $5.2 billion, a near doubling over 2022. We generated free cash flow of $2 billion while investing $5.3 billion back into the business, and we improved our leverage by 2 full turns and reinstated our quarterly dividend.

我們報告的全年每股收益為 6.25 美元，這是我們歷史上第二高的每股收益，收入比前一年高出 20%。我們實現了 11.6% 的營業利潤率和 52 億美元的稅前收入，比 2022 年增長了近一倍。 我們創造了 20 億美元的自由現金流，同時將 53 億美元重新投資於業務，我們將槓桿率提高了 2 倍，並恢復了季度股息。

Return on invested capital was 13.4%, a 5-point improvement from 2022. A tremendous amount of progress, especially if you consider where we sat a short 3 years ago, and I'm so proud of our team across the board. Sharing our financial success is a long-standing pillar of Delta's culture, and I'm thrilled to announce that we'll be rewarding our employees with $1.4 billion in well-earned profit sharing on Valentine's Day. For our employees, the estimated payout will be approximately 10% of eligible 2023 compensation, about double of what last year's payment was. I expect our profit sharing payments will be more than our 3 largest competitors combined.

投資資本回報率為 13.4%，比 2022 年提高了 5 個百分點。分享我們的財務成功是達美航空企業文化的長期支柱，我很高興地宣布，我們將在情人節那天向我們的員工獎勵 14 億美元的利潤分享。對於我們的員工，預計支出金額約為 2023 年合格薪酬的 10%，約為去年支出的兩倍。我預期我們的利潤分享支出將超過我們最大的三個競爭對手的利潤分享支出的總和。

Our people consistently deliver operational excellence with the relentless focus on raising the bar at every stage of the travel journey to deliver safe, reliable and caring service for our customers. They are the reason our brand and our customer loyalty lead the industry, why Delta was recognized as the world's 12th most admired company by Fortune, and why Glassdoor named us yesterday as the 13th best employer in the country.

我們的員工始終如一地提供卓越的運營，堅持不懈地致力於提高旅行每個階段的標準，為我們的客戶提供安全、可靠和貼心的服務。正是由於這些原因，我們的品牌和客戶忠誠度才引領行業發展，才使得達美航空被《財富》雜誌評為全球第 12 大最受尊敬公司，才使得 Glassdoor 昨天將我們評為全美第 13 大最佳雇主。

In 2023, we made meaningful investments in our people, our operation and our customers. We provided well-deserved pay increases for the Delta team, continuing our philosophy of industry-leading pay, for industry-leading performance. In the operation, the investments that we made supported the best-in-class operational performance that Delta has long been known for. Our operational excellence was recognized by Cirium last week which named us yet again the most on-time airline in North America. Our people and our operational reliability are the foundation of Delta's trusted consumer brand and we are building on that foundation as we elevate the premium flying experience and grow our SkyMiles members engagement with Delta.

2023年，我們對員工、營運和客戶進行了有意義的投資。我們為達美航空團隊提供了當之無愧的加薪，延續了我們「業界領先的薪資、業界領先的績效」的理念。在營運中，我們所進行的投資支持了達美航空長期以來享有盛譽的一流營運績效。上週，我們卓越的營運獲得了 Cirium 的認可，並再次將我們評為北美最準時的航空公司。我們的員工和營運可靠性是達美航空值得信賴的消費者品牌的基礎，我們在此基礎上不斷提升優質飛行體驗，並加強「飛凡哩程常客計畫」會員與達美航空的互動。

Today, we also announced an order for 20 Airbus 350-1000 aircraft with options for 20 more for delivery starting in 2026. These planes complement our fleet strategy and will offer a world-class customer experience for international travelers with more premium seats, higher gauge and great customer amenities. These aircraft are over 20% more fuel efficient than the 767s that they'll be replacing, further supporting our long-term sustainability goals.

今天，我們也宣布訂購 20 架空中巴士 350-1000 飛機，並選擇從 2026 年開始再訂購 20 架。這些飛機的燃油效率比它們將要取代的 767 飛機高出 20% 以上，進一步支持了我們的長期永續發展目標。

And with the successful launch of fast, free WiFi and Delta Sync, we are enhancing the in-flight entertainment experience for SkyMiles members. We expect to have these products rolled out globally by the end of this year.

隨著快速免費 WiFi 和 Delta Sync 的成功推出，我們正在增強「飛凡哩程常客計畫」會員的機上娛樂體驗。我們預計這些產品將在今年底在全球推出。

On the ground, we are building the airports of the future in some of the most important markets and adding new Delta Sky Clubs to provide our customers a world-class airport experience. We completed our transformation at Los Angeles 18 months ahead of schedule, including a state-of-the-art facility and a new Delta Sky Club that was named North America's Best Airline Lounge for 2023 by Business Traveler. We opened the latest phase of our Salt Lake City expansion and will complete the generational rebuild of LaGuardia this year.

在地面上，我們正​​在一些最重要的市場建造未來的機場，並增加新的達美航空飛凡貴賓室，為我們的客戶提供世界一流的機場體驗。我們提前 18 個月完成了洛杉磯機場的改造，包括一座最先進的設施和一個新的達美航空飛凡貴賓室，後者被《商務旅行者》評為 2023 年北美最佳航空休息室。我們啟動了鹽湖城擴建工程的最新階段，並將於今年完成拉瓜迪亞機場的重建。

Our digital investments continue as we work to increase our agility and provide employees with better tools and customers with a more seamless experience. Customers visited the Fly Delta app over 1 billion times last year using our self-service tools almost 10x more often than 2019 with much higher overall satisfaction.

我們將繼續進行數位投資，致力於提高我們的敏捷性，為員工提供更好的工具，為客戶提供更無縫的體驗。去年，顧客使用我們的自助服務工具存取 Fly Delta 應用程式的次數超過 10 億次，造訪頻率幾乎比 2019 年高出 10 倍，整體滿意度也大大提高。

As 2024 begins, our enterprise has moved from a period of restoration to optimization. We are focused on delivering excellent reliability, elevating the customer experience and improving efficiency across the company to support continued growth in our earnings and our cash flow. We expect demand to remain strong particularly for the premium experiences that Delta provides.

隨著2024年的到來，我們的企業已經從恢復期進入到優化期。我們專注於提供卓越的可靠性，提升客戶體驗並提高整個公司的效率，以支持我們的收益和現金流的持續成長。我們預計需求將保持強勁，特別是對達美航空提供的優質體驗。

Consumer spend is continuing to shift from goods to services and our customer base is in a healthy financial position with travel remaining a top priority. And corporate travel continues to improve with demand accelerating into year-end.

消費者支出繼續從商品轉向服務，我們的客戶群財務狀況良好，旅行仍然是首要任務。隨著年底需求加速，商務旅行持續改善。

On supply, industry growth is normalizing after several years of network restoration. For 2024, we plan to grow Delta's capacity 3% to 5%, below the mid-single-digit range that we discussed at our June Investor Day as we've refined our plan.

供應方面，經過幾年的網路恢復，產業成長正在正常化。到 2024 年，我們計劃將達美航空的運力提高 3% 至 5%，低於我們在 6 月投資者日討論的中等個位數範圍，因為我們已經完善了計劃。

Domestically, supply and demand are coming into better balance as the industry adjusts to rising cost of production, and we are seeing a positive inflection in domestic unit revenue growth. Internationally, we expect another strong year as we optimize our network and leverage our global JV partners.

在國內，隨著產業適應不斷上升的生產成本，供需正走向更好的平衡，我們看到國內單位收入成長出現了積極的變化。在國際方面，隨著我們網路的優化和全球合資夥伴的發揮，我們預計今年將是另一個強勁發展的一年。

With that backdrop, we are providing full year 2024 guidance for earnings of $6 to $7 per share -- and free cash flow of $3 billion to $4 billion. Free cash guidance is up to $2 billion higher than 2023, driven by growth in profitability, lower CapEx and an improved mix of cash sales. As we continue to grow earnings and reduce debt, we will further reduce leverage and advance our balance sheet towards investment-grade metrics. Glen and Dan will provide more detail shortly, including our outlook for the March quarter.

在此背景下，我們預計 2024 年全年每股收益為 6 至 7 美元，自由現金流為 30 億至 40 億美元。受獲利能力成長、資本支出降低和現金銷售組合改善的推動，免費現金指引比 2023 年高出 20 億美元。隨著我們繼續增加利潤並減少債務，我們將進一步降低槓桿率，並使我們的資產負債表向投資等級指標邁進。 Glen 和 Dan 很快就會提供更多詳細信息，包括我們對三月季度的展望。

In closing, the people of Delta delivered a remarkable 2023, leading the industry operationally and financially, while providing a world-class experience for our customers. Delta is well positioned to build on our momentum in the new year with continued growth in earnings, and cash flow in 2024.

最後，達美航空的員工在 2023 年取得了卓越的成績，在營運和財務方面引領業界，同時為我們的客戶提供了世界級的體驗。達美航空已做好準備，在新的一年裡繼續保持良好勢頭，在 2024 年實現盈利和現金流的持續增長。

I could not be more excited about what's ahead for Delta and our customers, and I am confident that our returns-focused strategy will drive significant value creation for our owners in the years to come. Thank you again for the support you show to our company. And with that, I'll turn it over to Glen.

我對達美航空和客戶的未來感到無比興奮，我相信，我們以回報為中心的策略將在未來幾年為我們的機主創造巨大的價值。再次感謝您對我公司的支持。現在我將把話題交給格倫。

Thank you, Ed, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by thanking all of our employees for their hard work and dedication this year. For the full year, we delivered record revenues of $55 billion, about 20% higher than pre-pandemic. Strong execution on our commercial strategy resulted in significant outperformance against the industry, with international delivering record margins and profits. We finished the year with unit revenues 3% higher than 2022, also about 20% above pre-pandemic levels.

謝謝你，艾德，大家早安。首先，我要感謝我們所有員工今年的辛勤工作和奉獻。全年我們實現了創紀錄的 550 億美元收入，比疫情前高出約 20%。我們商業策略的強大執行使我們的表現遠優於產業，國際業務實現了創紀錄的利潤率和利潤。我們今年的單位收入比 2022 年高出 3%，也比疫情前的水平高出約 20%。

Diversified revenue streams, including premium and loyalty generated 55% of revenue, reflecting Delta's differentiated strategy. Premium led all year with record paid load factors and yield growth outpacing Main Cabin. The rollout of Delta Premium Select on long-haul international is nearly complete and the revenue generation has been above our expectations. As we continue to increase our premium seat mix and segment the cabin through our 5 product strategy, we have structurally improved the international margins. Our loyalty program continued to exceed our expectations with record SkyMiles acquisitions in 2023.

多元化的收入來源，包括保費和忠誠度，創造了 55% 的收入，反映了達美航空的差異化策略。豪華艙全年處於領先地位，付費載客率創下歷史新高，且收益增加超過主艙。達美航空長途國際航班尊尚選擇計畫 (Delta Premium Select) 的推出已接近尾聲，其收入超出了我們的預期。隨著我們繼續增加高級座位組合併透過我們的五種產品策略對客艙進行細分，我們從結構上提高了國際利潤率。我們的忠誠度計畫繼續超越我們的預期，2023 年的 SkyMiles 收購創下了歷史新高。

Total royalty revenue was up 19% over the prior year with 15% growth in co-brand spend and increasing mix of premium cards in our Amex co-brand portfolio. In recognition of our commitment to the Business Traveler, Delta was named #1 in Business Travel News Airline survey for an unprecedented 13th consecutive year. Delta gained corporate share during the year and successfully launched SkyMiles for business providing small- to medium-sized companies, new benefits to support further growth in the important SME segment.

總特許權使用費收入比上年增長了 19%，其中聯名品牌支出增長了 15%，並且我們的美國運通聯名品牌組合中的高端卡組合不斷增加。為表彰我們對商務旅客的承諾，達美航空在《商務旅行新聞航空》調查中連續 13 年榮登榜首，這是史無前例的。達美航空在這一年中擴大了企業市場份額，並成功推出了針對中小型企業的“飛凡里程常客計劃”，為企業提供新的福利，以支持重要的中小企業領域的進一步增長。

Corporate sales accelerated into year-end, including double-digit year-over-year growth in the month of December. Technology and financial services led this momentum for the December quarter with media and auto sector seeing notable traction following the strike resolutions. December quarter revenue was a record $13.7 billion, 11% higher than '22. While unit revenues were 3% lower than last year, we are entering the year with momentum in our highest and had experienced our highest cash sales day in history this week.

企業銷售額在年底加速成長，其中 12 月年增達兩位數。科技和金融服務業引領了 12 月季度的這一勢頭，而媒體和汽車行業在罷工決議之後也出現了明顯的成長勢頭。 12 月季度的營收達到創紀錄的 137 億美元，比 22 年高出 11%。雖然單位收入比去年下降了 3％，但我們正以最高的勢頭進入新的一年，並且本週我們經歷了歷史上最高的現金銷售日。

We expect March quarter revenue growth of 3% to 6% over 2023 on capacity growth of 6%, which includes 1 point from Leap Day implying unit revenues will be flat to down 3% over last year. This is a 2-point sequential improvement on a year-over-year basis from the December quarter. Our March quarter faces headwinds from 3 dynamics when compared to last year. These include higher international mix, the normalization of travel credit utilization and lapping our competitors' operational challenges.

我們預計，2023 年 3 月季度的營收將比去年成長 3% 至 6%，產能將成長 6%，其中包括閏日帶來的 1 個點，這意味著單位營收將與去年持平或下降 3%。與去年 12 月季度相比，這連續提高了 2 個百分點。與去年相比，我們三月的季度面臨三大阻力。這些包括更高的國際組合、旅行信用利用的正常化以及應對競爭對手的營運挑戰。

Looking through these headwinds, the core fundamentals of the business are improving faster than the headline numbers suggest. With encouraging developments in the domestic environment, we expect domestic unit revenues to inflect to positive in the March quarter. The Transatlantic, our largest international entity continues to perform well with strong demand through the shoulder period, and we expect unit revenues to grow in the March quarter.

儘管存在這些不利因素，但業務的核心基本面正在比總體數字所顯示的改善速度更快。隨著國內環境的令人鼓舞的發展，我們預計 3 月份國內單位收入將轉為正值。跨大西洋航線是我們最大的國際實體，在平季持續表現良好，需求強勁，我們預計 3 月季度的單位收入將會成長。

In Latin and Pacific, we are rebuilding our networks and improving connectivity with our JV partners, accounting for the majority of capacity growth in the March quarter. These investments are supporting higher short-term profitability but with lower unit revenues.

在拉丁和太平洋地區，我們正在重建網路並改善與合資夥伴的連結性，這佔三月季度運力成長的大部分。這些投資支持了更高的短期獲利能力，但單位收入較低。

Turning to our outlook for the full year. Premium consumer trends remain strong and spending on travel experiences continues to outpace overall GDP by 2 to 3 points. We expect solid growth in business demand with nearly 95% of respondents in our recent corporate survey expecting to travel as much or more in 1Q than 4Q. This is a double-digit improvement in travel intentions from our last survey. Our commercial strategy in '24 builds on Delta's competitive advantages by optimizing our network, growing high margin revenue streams and investing in our future.

談談我們對全年的展望。高端消費趨勢依然強勁，旅遊體驗支出持續超過整體GDP成長2至3個百分點。我們預計商務需求將穩定成長，在我們最近的企業調查中，近 95% 的受訪者預計第一季的出行次數與第四季持平或更多。與我們上次調查相比，旅行意向提高了兩位數。我們2024年的商業策略將透過優化我們的網路、增加高利潤收入來源和投資我們的未來來鞏固達美航空的競爭優勢。

First, we have a unique opportunity to further optimize Delta's network to capitalize on our strengths in core hubs and JV partner hubs and reflect evolving travel trends. This is the first time we've been able to optimize since pre-pandemic as we now have a good set of demand to optimize from. Second, growing revenue diversification through high-margin sources remains an important differentiator for Delta. We have runway ahead as we continue adding more premium seats to our aircraft further improve our retail capabilities and expand loyalty revenues and travel adjacent services. We expect American Express remuneration to grow 10% over 2023 levels.

首先，我們擁有獨特的機會進一步優化達美航空的網絡，以充分利用我們在核心樞紐和合資夥伴樞紐方面的優勢並反映不斷變化的旅遊趨勢。這是我們自疫情爆發以來首次能夠進行最佳化，因為我們現在有一套很好的需求可以進行最佳化。其次，透過高利潤來源實現收入多元化仍是達美航空的重要差異化因素。隨著我們繼續在飛機上增加更多高級座位，我們將繼續提高零售能力、擴大忠誠度收入和旅行相關服務，從而擁有前進的道路。我們預期美國運通的薪酬將比 2023 年的水準成長 10%。

Finally, we are investing in the future to enhance the premium travel experience through our next-gen fleet, generational airport builds and digital transformation. With continued investment, Delta's brand strength and leadership position will extend in the years ahead.

最後，我們正在投資未來，透過下一代機隊、新一代機場建設和數位轉型來提升優質旅行體驗。隨著持續的投資，達美航空的品牌實力和領導地位將在未來幾年進一步增強。

In closing, I'm incredibly proud of the team's performance in 2023, and we're entering the new year with momentum. I'm excited about Delta's opportunities to grow our lead in 2024. And with that, I'll turn it over to Dan to talk about the financials.

最後，我為團隊在 2023 年的表現感到無比自豪，我們正帶著強勁的勢頭進入新的一年。我對達美航空在 2024 年擴大領先地位的機會感到興奮。

Thank you, Glen, and good morning to everyone. 2023 was another meaningful milestone in restoring our financial foundation. We delivered earnings of $6.25 per share and pretax income of $5.2 billion, nearly double our performance of last year. Operating margins of 11.6% was up 4 points from last year and expected to lead the industry. We generated operating cash flow of $7.2 billion, enabling reinvestment in our people, our fleet and technology. After gross CapEx of $5.3 billion, we generated free cash flow of $2 billion.

謝謝你，格倫，大家早安。 2023年是我們恢復財務基礎的另一個有意義的里程碑。我們的每股盈餘為 6.25 美元，稅前收入為 52 億美元，幾乎是去年業績的兩倍。營業利益率為11.6%，比去年上升了4個百分點，預計將領先產業。我們產生了 72 億美元的營運現金流，可以對我們的員工、車隊和技術進行再投資。在總資本支出 53 億美元後，我們產生了 20 億美元的自由現金流。

During the year, we paid more than $4 billion of gross debt. This included accelerated repayment of $1.7 billion of higher cost debt. We ended the year with liquidity of $6.8 billion and grew our unencumbered assets to $26 billion. Our leverage ratio improved 2 turns to finish the year at 3x. Return on invested capital improved to 13.4%, up 5 points over 2022. S&P upgraded our credit rating in the second half of last year. We are investment-grade rated at Moody's, and we are now only 1 notch away from investment grade with outlooks improving at both S&P and Fitch during the year.

這一年，我們償還了超過 40 億美元的總債務。其中包括加速償還17億美元的高成本債務。到年底，我們的流動資金達到 68 億美元，而無抵押資產則成長至 260 億美元。我們的槓桿率提高了兩次，年底達到 3 倍。投資資本回報率提高至 13.4%，比 2022 年上升 5 個百分點。我們擁有穆迪的投資等級，目前我們距離投資等級僅差 1 個等級，標準普爾和惠譽的前景在今年都有所改善。

With this progress, we reinstated our dividend last summer, broadening our appeal to yield-focused investors. We closed out the year strong, reporting a December quarter pretax profit of $1.1 billion on operating margins of 9.7%, resulting in earnings of $2.28 per share. Nonfuel unit costs were up 1.1% year-over-year, in line with our guidance.

隨著這一進展，我們在去年夏天恢復了股息，擴大了對注重收益的投資者的吸引力。我們以強勁的業績結束了這一財年，報告 12 月季度稅前利潤為 11 億美元，營業利潤率為 9.7%，每股收益為 2.28 美元。非燃料單位成本年增 1.1%，符合我們的預期。

Now moving to our outlook. For the March quarter, we expect earnings of $0.25 to $0.50 per share on approximately 5% operating margin. We expect March quarter fuel price to be $2.50 to $2.70 per gallon with a $0.05 to $0.10 refinery benefit. The refinery profit is expected to be down more than $130 million from last year due to elevated crack spreads in early 2023.

現在轉向我們的展望。對於 3 月季度，我們預計每股收益為 0.25 美元至 0.50 美元，營業利潤率約為 5%。我們預計 3 月季度燃料價格為每加侖 2.50 美元至 2.70 美元，煉油廠收益為 0.05 美元至 0.10 美元。由於 2023 年初裂解價差上升，預計煉油廠利潤將比去年下降 1.3 億美元以上。

For the full year, we expect to deliver earnings of $6 to $7 per share. With our reduced outlook for capacity growth, we expect full year nonfuel unit cost to be up low single digit over 2023 with the March quarter unit costs up approximately 3%. The last 2 years were a period of intense restoration with unnatural high growth to rebuild our network.

我們預計全年每股收益為 6 至 7 美元。由於我們下調了對產能成長的預期，我們預計 2023 年全年非燃料單位成本將上漲個位數，3 月季度單位成本將上漲約 3%。過去兩年是我們重建網路的強力復原期，實現了非自然的高速成長。

Growth is normalizing, and we've entered a period of optimization. With a focus on restoring our most profitable core hubs and delivering efficiency gains across the enterprise. The intensity of hiring and training has moderated. And investment in reliability are beginning to pay off with continued improvement in operational performance.

成長正在正常化，我們已進入最佳化時期。重點是恢復我們最賺錢的核心樞紐並提高整個企業的效率。招募和培訓的強度已經減緩。隨著營運績效的持續改善，對可靠性的投資開始獲得回報。

We expect to deliver efficiencies through the year that will help fund investments in our people, the customer experiences that Ed spoke to earlier. On maintenance, we have a higher number of heavy airframe and engine checks this year, resulting from the timing of new aircraft deliveries over the last decade, and the reactivation of our Flex fleets. At the same time, industry-wide supply chain constraints are continuing, driving higher costs and extended turnaround times.

我們希望全年提高效率，這將有助於為我們的人才和 Ed 之前提到的客戶體驗提供資金投資。在維護方面，由於過去十年新飛機交付的時間安排以及我們 Flex 機隊的重新啟用，我們今年的重型機身和發動機檢查次數有所增加。同時，全行業供應鏈的限制仍在持續，導致成本上升和周轉時間延長。

For the full year, we expect maintenance expense to be up $350 million over 2023 as we prioritize continued improvement in operational reliability and readying our fleet for the peak summer period. We expect the majority of this increase to be in the early part of the year. Unit cost growth is expected to improve from the March quarter levels as we deliver efficiency and lap investments we've made in the second half of 2023.

就全年而言，我們預計維護費用將比 2023 年增加 3.5 億美元，因為我們優先考慮繼續提高營運可靠性並為夏季高峰期做好車隊準備。我們預計大部分成長將發生在年初。隨著我們在 2023 年下半年實現效率和資本投入，預計單位成本成長將較 3 月季度水準有所改善。

Now on to cash flow. We expect cash flow of $3 billion to $4 billion of free cash flow, preluding CapEx of $5 billion. The improvement in free cash flow is driven by growth in profitability, lower CapEx and a higher mix of cash sales. As cash sales are expected to compose a larger percentage of overall bookings as travel credit utilization normalizes. We plan to pay cash for $3 billion of 2024 debt maturities and for approximately 45 aircraft deliveries, growing our unencumbered asset base to $30 billion.

現在討論現金流。我們預計自由現金流為 30 億至 40 億美元，資本支出為 50 億美元。自由現金流的改善是由獲利能力的成長、資本支出的降低和現金銷售組合的增加所推動的。隨著旅行信用使用率的正常化，現金銷售預計將在整體預訂中佔據更大比例。我們計劃以現金支付 2024 年到期的 30 億美元債務和約 45 架飛機的交付，使我們的無抵押資產基礎增加到 300 億美元。

We expect to reduce leverage to under 3x, returning the balance sheet to investment-grade metrics, while continuing to invest in the business remains our focus for capital allocation. We'll continue to evaluate shareholder returns with a focus on dividend growth as we reach our targeted leverage.

我們預計將槓桿率降低到 3 倍以下，使資產負債表恢復到投資等級指標，同時繼續對業務進行投資仍然是我們資本配置的重點。當我們達到目標槓桿率時，我們將繼續評估股東回報，並專注於股息成長。

In closing, Delta is well positioned as we enter the final year of our 3-year plan to restore our financial foundation. We are continuing to prioritize the objectives we laid out at Investor Day with emphasis on earnings durability, free cash flow and capital efficiency.

最後，達美航空已做好準備，準備進入三年恢復財務基礎計畫的最後一年。我們將繼續優先考慮投資者日提出的目標，並專注於獲利持久性、自由現金流和資本效率。

Our industry-leading operational and financial performance is a result of the hard work and dedication of the Delta people. I'd like to thank each of them for what they do every day. With that, I'd like to turn it back to Julie for Q&A.

我們行業領先的營運和財務業績是達美航空員工辛勤工作和奉獻的結果。我想感謝他們每個人每天所做的一切。說完這些，我想把話題轉回給朱莉，讓她來問答。

Thanks, Dan. Matthew, can you please remind the analysts how to queue up for questions?

謝謝，丹。馬修，您能否提醒分析師如何排隊提問？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Your first question is coming from Michael Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

您的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的麥可‧林伯格（Michael Linenberg）。

This is a question probably to both Dan and Glen. With the new A350-1000s coming in 2026 and knowing that you do have -- some additional Airbus widebodies delivering over the next few years. Are you still going to be in a situation where maybe you have to extend your 767 fleet. I know that, that is to be fully retired, I think it was going to be by 2025. Will you have enough lift and if not, are we going to see additional investments into maybe some of these older aircraft to keep them running through until you take deliveries of the bigger airplanes.

這可能是丹和格倫都想知道的問題。隨著新型 A350-1000 飛機於 2026 年問世，我們知道未來幾年還會有一些空中巴士寬體飛機交付。您是否仍會面臨必須擴大 767 機隊的情況？我知道，這些飛機將全部退役，我認為是在 2025 年。

As we move through 2025, '24 through the back half of the decade, we expect to retire the 767-300s through that period of time on a pretty consistent basis as you step through while continuing to fly the 400s.

隨著我們進入 2025 年，也就是 24 個十年的後半段，我們預計在這段時間內 767-300 型飛機將以相當穩定的基礎退役，而 400 型飛機將繼續飛行。

So you'll continue to fly the 400s beyond 2025, Dan?

那麼，丹，您會在 2025 年後繼續駕駛 400 型飛機嗎？

Yes...

是的...

Mike, I don't think -- it was never our intent to have those fleet grounded by '25. It was our intent to have them out of international long haul by 2028 and retired by 2030.

麥克，我不認為——我們從來沒想過在 25 年之前讓這些飛機停飛。我們的目標是讓這些飛機在 2028 年退出國際長途航線，並在 2030 年退役。

'30. Yes. Okay. Makes sense. They're a bit younger. And then Glen, just my second question, what was the headwind due to the cancellation of the Israel services in -- the Israel services in the Fourth Quarter? And is that a good way to think about the March quarter impact if you don't restart those services by the 31st.

'30。是的。好的。有道理。他們比較年輕。然後格倫，我的第二個問題是，由於取消了第四季度的以色列服務而帶來的不利因素是什麼？如果您未能在 31 日之前重新啟動這些服務，這是否是考慮 3 月季度影響的好方法？

So Mike, the initial hit was clearly the greatest because as we move through the quarter, we redeployed the assets to other markets. So I would say it was about 1 point of revenue in 4Q and that really goes to very little impact in 1Q and beyond. And of course, we're assessing the issues in Israel. Our current intent we have loaded for sale April. We'll see how that manifests as we move through, but our priority is always safety first. Safety of our customers, our crews, and that's going to be our priority.

因此，麥克，最初的打擊顯然是最大的，因為隨著我們進入本季度，我們將資產重新部署到其他市場。因此，我想說這大約是第四季收入的 1 個點，而且這對第一季及以後的影響非常小。當然，我們正在評估以色列的問題。我們目前的意向已於四月掛牌出售。我們將會看到這種情況如何發生，但我們的首要任務始終是安全第一。確保客戶和員工的安全是我們的首要任務。

Your next question is coming from Helane Becker from TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

So 2 questions. One for -- I think, Ed, you mentioned this morning on CNBC that you were seeing improvement in corporate, especially in the tech sector. So I'm kind of wondering if you or Glen can talk about what you're seeing in corporate by sector and maybe by geographic region?

所以有 2 個問題。首先——艾德，我想你今天早上在 CNBC 上提到你看到企業界，特別是科技領域的狀況有所改善。所以我想知道您或格倫是否可以談談您對企業按行業和按地理區域劃分的看法？

Well, I'll start and Glen can add his color as well. We are seeing continued improvement in the corporate sector, and we had a number of laggards, tech being, by far, the largest in terms of that had essentially not returned to travel. And we're finally starting to see tech companies traveling again. And again, I think a lot of this is through return to office that is driving some of that, the consultancies as well, which have also been laggards. Again, given their clients have had their offices somewhat reduced office hours, opening is helping there. And we've seen it across the board.

好吧，我先開始，格倫也可以添加他的顏色。我們看到企業界持續改善，但也有一些表現落後的企業，其中科技業是迄今為止表現最差的企業，其旅遊業基本上尚未恢復。我們終於開始看到科技公司再次開始出遊。而且，我認為這在很大程度上是由於重返辦公室推動了其中的一些，諮詢公司也是如此，它們也一直處於落後狀態。再次，考慮到他們的客戶辦公室的辦公時間有所減少，開業是有幫助的。我們已經全面看到了這一點。

The other thing I mentioned this morning also was the auto and entertainment sectors have rebounded nicely, entertainment clearly and auto is starting to rebound following the strikes in the Fourth Quarter.

我今天早上提到的另一件事是汽車和娛樂產​​業已經出現了良好的反彈，娛樂業和汽車業在第四季度罷工之後顯然開始反彈。

That's very helpful. And then just for my follow-up, question. As you think about international, I noticed that in your schedules, you're elongating the season with maybe just January and February in international being seasonally lower. Are you seeing travel move into those months as well so that you would extend or add especially to your coastal hubs more international service going east.

這非常有幫助。然後只是我的後續問題。當您考慮國際時，我注意到在您的日程安排中，您正在延長賽季，可能只有一月和二月是國際季節性的低谷。您是否也看到這些月份的旅遊業發展，以便您可以延長或增加特別是沿海樞紐向東的國際服務。

Absolutely. I think we've disclosed this previously, is that we've seen the seasons elongate for leisure travel to Europe and really March through October now is pretty strong. Of course, the shoulder is still not as strong as the peak summer. But in response to that, and again, this is part of our optimization of how we fly is tailoring our capacity to when demand actually exists.

絕對地。我想我們之前已經透露過這一點，我們已經看到歐洲休閒旅遊的季節延長，現在三月到十月的旅遊旺季確實相當旺盛。當然，肩膀依然沒有巔峰夏天那麼結實。但為了因應這種情況，這也是我們優化飛行方式的一部分，也就是根據實際需求調整我們的運能。

Your next question is coming from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑米貝克。

Yes, Glen, on the pending inflection in domestic RASM, I appreciate we're seeing capacity plans tighten up across the industry. My question is whether you're seeing any revisions in how the growth your airlines are behaving outside of nearly cutting capacity. Anything else interesting we should be focused on? Or is it simply a supply exercise that's driving the improvement?

是的，格倫，關於國內 RASM 即將出現的轉折點，我很高興看到整個行業的產能計劃都在收緊。我的問題是，除了幾乎削減運力之外，您是否看到航空公司的成長表現有任何變化。還有什麼有趣的事情值得我們關注嗎？或者只是供應活動推動了改進？

Well, I think, Jamie, we've got a couple of contributors to it. One is what Ed just mentioned, the improving conditions in the corporate environment. And it's been a slow and steady rebuild since the end of the pandemic, but we are at post-pandemic highs, somewhere right around 90% restored to pre-pandemic levels as we head into this year. So that, I think, is an exciting backdrop for a domestic turnaround. Of course, we have some of the rationalization of capacity, but we also have continued improvements in segmentation and pricing. I can't talk to our competitors.

嗯，傑米，我想我們有幾個貢獻者。一是Ed剛才提到的，企業環境條件不斷改善。自疫情結束以來，重建工作一直在緩慢而穩定地進行，但目前我們已達到疫情後的頂峰，進入今年以來，已恢復到疫情前的 90% 左右的水平。所以，我認為這對國內經濟復甦來說是一個令人興奮的背景。當然，我們在產能方面進行了一些合理化，但我們在細分和定價方面也不斷取得改進。我不能和我們的競爭對手交談。

I just know how we are working now and 20 years ago, we were only worried about the lowest fares in the market. And now we're worried about the entire ladder and the relativity within those ladders and trying to get people to experience the higher quality products. And I think that's really led to our ability to continue to segment the customers in a more enlightened way moving forward. And that's going to be one of the key drivers as we head through this year.

我只知道我們現在是如何運作的，20年前，我們只擔心市場上的最低票價。現在我們擔心的是整個階梯以及階梯內的相對性，並試圖讓人們體驗更高品質的產品。我認為這確實使我們能夠在未來繼續以更明智的方式細分客戶。這將是我們今年前進的關鍵驅動力之一。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then a second question for Ed. During your interview with Phil this morning, you mentioned you're still holding out hope for the $7 earnings outcome this year. If we fast forward to a year from today, give or take, and that indeed has been the outcome. What do you think the primary driver will have been? I guess better way to ask is, do you think there is upside based on what Delta can control or do you think it will simply be exogenous factors, like, hey, fuel cooperated or, I don't know, maybe the consumer leaned even further into premium, that sort of thing.

好的。我很感激。然後第二個問題問艾德。在今天早上接受菲爾採訪時，您提到您仍然對今年 7 美元的盈利結果抱有希望。如果我們從今天起快轉一年左右，結果確實如此。您認為主要的驅動因素是什麼？我想更好的問法是，您是否認為基於達美航空可以控制的因素，存在上行空間，或者您是否認為這僅僅是外生因素，比如，嘿，燃料合作，或者，我不知道，也許消費者更傾向於高端產品，諸如此類的事情。

Sure. Thanks, Jamie. I get the question. I think the level of volatility that we see is what causes us to be a bit cautious and prudent in giving that $6 to $7 EPS guide in 2024. We've been signaling that a bit for the last 6 months, and that's where we sit today. I have great confidence in us hitting that guide, which is what I think the Street wants to know where our confidence level is. There are a bunch of macros that we look at into the year, which we'll have to see how they play out.

當然。謝謝，傑米。我明白你的疑問。我認為，我們看到的波動水平導致我們在給出 2024 年 6 至 7 美元的每股收益指導時有些謹慎和審慎。我對我們達到這個指導目標非常有信心，我認為華爾街想知道我們的信心程度。我們今年要研究很多宏觀因素，看看它們會如何發揮作用。

Clearly, the geopolitical front continues to be quite testy, including the fact that this is a political election season, not just in the U.S. but around the world. Energy prices, we saw this morning just how volatile energy prices are. And to me, the supply chain, both the cost and the constraints that we see in this industry continue unabated. We're not making nearly the progress on the supply chain improvements, if anything. Every news we get seems to be a bit worse, not better. So that constrains growth and increased cost.

顯然，地緣政治局勢仍然相當緊張，包括現在正值政治選舉季，不僅在美國，而且在全世界都是如此。能源價格，我們今天早上看到了能源價格有多不穩定。對我來說，供應鏈、我們在這個產業中看到的成本和限制仍在持續。如果有的話，我們在供應鏈改進方面幾乎沒有任何進展。我們收到的每一個訊息似乎都更糟一些，而不是更好一些。因此這會限製成長並增加成本。

That all said, my internal stretch for myself and our team is to still get to that $7 number this year. I think we have a possibility to get there. But I also think that the macro weighs on that assessment, and I think to be prudent, we should set expectations maybe a little bit lower and hope to overchieve. Just by the way we did in 2023. We gave a $5 to $6 guide and came in on the top end. And I'd like to see a year from now that we're reporting that same type of result.

儘管如此，我和我的團隊仍希望今年能達到 7 美元的目標。我認為我們有可能實現這個目標。但我還認為宏觀因素會影響這個評估，我認為，謹慎起見，我們應該將預期定得稍微低一些，並希望能夠超額完成目標。就像我們在 2023 年所做的那樣。我希望一年後我們仍能報告同樣的結果。

Your next question is coming from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

Just on the regions in general. You obviously sound more constructive, domestically, but I think you mentioned that you still see a lot -- a fair bit of upside in terms of international. If you could just level set on your overall like regional expectations in '24, I think that would be helpful.

僅針對一般地區。從國內角度看，您顯然聽起來更有建設性，但我認為您提到過，您仍然看到很多——從國際角度看，還有相當大的上升空間。如果你能對 24 年的整體區域期望進行調整，我認為這會很有幫助。

Well, I think we're expecting domestic to continue to improve, the comps get easier as we move through the year. So we should see some nice momentum there. We had a fantastic year in the Transatlantic. We're hoping to beat that, but there's a really high bar as we move through the year. What we have on the books today is really pretty exciting for the month of April, where we have about 40% of our Transatlantic bookings in place. We have unit revenue sitting at high single digits up, which I think most people wouldn't expect.

嗯，我認為我們預計國內市場將繼續改善，隨著時間的推移，同店銷售會變得更加容易。因此我們應該會看到一些好的勢頭。我們在跨大西洋航行度過了美好的一年。我們希望打破這項紀錄，但隨著時間的流逝，我們的目標會變得越來越高。我們今天所掌握的 4 月份預訂情況確實非常令人興奮，我們已經完成了約 40% 的跨大西洋預訂。我們的單位收入保持著高個位數的成長，我想這是大多數人沒有想到的。

Of course, we have a lot of booking to go there, but the early returns for spring and summer are very favorable as we sit today. Pacific where we have an incredible amount of capacity, it's being absorbed nicely and we expect that to inflect into a positive territory as those growth rates come down, we move through the year. And last but not least, Latin -- our ambitious build of South America with our partners, LATAM, is paying very strong dividends. We're improving our profitability, albeit at lower unit revenue.

當然，我們有很多去那裡的預訂，但就目前情況來看，春季和夏季的早期回報非常有利。太平洋地區，我們的運力驚人，而且正在被很好地吸收，我們預計，隨著這些增長率的下降，這一情況將轉變為積極的領域，我們將在這一年中繼續前進。最後但同樣重要的一點是，拉丁美洲——我們與合作夥伴 LATAM 共同雄心勃勃地建造南美洲，正在帶來非常豐厚的回報。儘管單位收入較低，但我們的獲利能力正在提高。

So I think we're very excited about where South America sits and the beaches, this winter seem a little oversaturated that will rationalize itself out as we move through the year.

因此，我認為我們對南美洲的地理位置和海灘感到非常興奮，今年冬天似乎有點過度飽和，但隨著一年的推移，這種情況會自行合理化。

Appreciate that. And then, Dan, 2024 costs. I was hoping if you could provide some thoughts just on the shape of the cost trajectory. It seems like a lot of it just has to do with timing of maintenance and really, really that type of stuff. Just any color -- additional color there could be helpful.

非常感謝。然後，丹，2024 年的成本。我希望您能就成本軌蹟的形狀提供一些想法。看起來很多事情都與維護時間以及諸如此類的事情有關。任何顏色都可以——額外的顏色可能會有幫助。

Yes. I said maintenance was up $350 million for the year with a focus on the first part of the year. The other piece of it is, when you think about efficiencies, efficiencies just build as you progress through the year. One example is we're down on -- we're fully staffed. The one place we're hiring is pilot. That will be down 50% -- over 50% from last year. But again, front half centric with training associated with it as you get ready for the summer. And that really normalizes the historical levels in the back half of the year. So just a good steady drumbeat of efficiencies as we pace through the year.

是的。我說，今年的維護費用增加了 3.5 億美元，重點是上半年。另一點是，當你考慮效率時，效率會隨著一年的進展而不斷提高。一個例子是，我們的人員配備不足。我們招募的一個職位是飛行員。這將比去年​​下降 50% 至 50% 以上。但是，當你為夏天做好準備時，前半部分再次以與之相關的訓練為中心。這確實使今年下半年的歷史水準恢復正常。因此，隨著我們度過新的一年，我們將繼續穩定地提高效率。

Your next question is coming from Stephen Trent from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Stephen Trent。

This might be for Ed or Glen, but you addressed it a little bit in an earlier response, but how do you think the supply chain stuff goes. First, we have the GTF engine, now the MAX 9 door plug. Do you think we've kind of reached the bottom? Or are you concerned there could be more to come 6 to 12 months from now?

這可能是針對 Ed 或 Glen 的，但您在先前的回覆中已經稍微提到了這一點，但您認為供應鏈的情況如何。首先，我們有 GTF 發動機，現在有 MAX 9 門塞。您認為我們已經觸底了嗎？或者您擔心今後 6 到 12 個月還會出現更多此類事件？

Thanks, Stephen. This is Ed. I hope there's no more surprises, but I'd be lying to you, if I thought that's the case. I mean I think we're continuing to work through the -- in this post-pandemic world, the implications of the supply chain issues that we saw.

謝謝，史蒂芬。這是埃德。我希望不會再有意外，但如果我認為情況確實如此，那我就是在騙你。我的意思是，我認為我們正在繼續努力解決——在這個後疫情時代，我們所看到的供應鏈問題的影響。

Although, the MAX 9 issue is a one-off, separate issue. I'm not referring to that. I am referring principally to the engine side of the business. And there's a lot of work on Pratt. We have a lot of reliance on Pratt and their challenges that they're facing have been well-chronicled. One of the things that we see on the engine side is as a lot of the incremental resources that our engine providers and suppliers have put their resources against, it also strips away resources from the maintenance work on their existing business with us.

儘管如此，MAX 9 問題是一次性的、單獨的問題。我不是說那個。我主要指的是引擎方面的業務。普拉特還有很多工作要做。我們非常依賴普拉特，他們所面臨的挑戰也已被詳細記錄下來。在引擎方面，我們看到的情況之一是，我們的引擎供應商和供應商投入了大量的增量資源，這也剝奪了他們與我們現有業務維護工作的資源。

So we're working through in an efficient manner with Pratt they were in this week and we spent a lot of time with them. Rolls and GE, everybody in the engine world has challenges, not just on the original build, but more importantly, on the parts and the repair side of the business. And a lot of it's an experience factor level, all the suppliers in our industry lost a tremendous amount of experience due to the pandemic, and it's taking time to get that back to get the term times down to where they need to be and we have higher turn times that not only delays the entry into service, it also causes cost to go up.

因此，我們正在以高效的方式與普拉特合作，我們本週與他們共度了很多時間。無論是勞斯萊斯還是通用電氣，引擎領域的每個人都面臨挑戰，不僅是在原始製造方面，更重要的是在零件和維修業務方面。這在很大程度上是一個經驗因素層面，我們行業的所有供應商都因疫情而失去了大量經驗，需要花一些時間才能恢復到應有的水平，而且我們的周轉時間更長，這不僅延遲了投入使用，還導致成本上升。

All right. I appreciate that, Ed. And as my follow-up, I appreciate as well what you mentioned on the Latin market doing well. Any high-level color with respect to sort of deep LATAM versus short-haul LATAM? I mean, I presume a lot of the uplift you're seeing is from the JBA spooling up, but just wanted to make sure I understood that correctly.

好的。我很感激，艾德。作為我的後續評論，我也很欣賞您所提到的拉丁市場表現良好。關於深度 LATAM 與短途 LATAM 之間是否存在什麼高級差異？我的意思是，我推測你所看到的很大一部分提升來自於 JBA 的加速，但我只是想確保我理解得正確。

Yes. I think you described it perfectly. There's a little pressure on the short-haul Latin, particularly on the resorts, where a lot of capacity was added by the industry year-over-year. But we're having really incredible performance into deep South America as we continue our coordination of launching the JV with LATAM, and we're very excited about the short-term and the long-term prospects there.

是的。我認為你描述得非常完美。拉丁美洲短程航空面臨一些壓力，尤其是度假勝地，因為該行業的運力逐年增加。但隨著我們繼續協調與 LATAM 建立合資企業，我們在南美洲腹地的表現確實令人難以置信，我們對那裡的短期和長期前景感到非常興奮。

Your next question is coming from David Vernon from Bernstein.

您的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的大衛‧弗農 (David Vernon)。

So Dan, as you think about what happened in 2023 as far as kind of the cost creep that led us to a little bit of a higher cost position than maybe you would have thought in the beginning of the year. Can you give us a kind of run down around kind of what you missed in 2023 and then with that as kind of a backdrop, talk to some of the sources of risk that you might see to that low single-digit outlook for CASM ex in 2024?

所以丹，當你想到 2023 年發生的事情時，成本的攀升導致我們的成本比你在年初想像的要高一點。您能否為我們簡要介紹一下您在 2023 年錯過了什麼，然後以此為背景，談談您可能看到的導致 2024 年 CASM ex 前景為低個位數的一些風險來源？

Yes, predominantly, yes, David, certainly. 2 drivers. First, we flew less capacity and kept the cost in to invest back into the business. That was one. And the second piece was what we talked about a lot in the second half of the year was the investment in maintenance and the cost associated with maintenance. And those were really -- when you look at where we were from what we got it to where we ended up just over plus 2, those were the single 2 biggest drivers associated with that.

是的，主要是，是的，大衛，當然。 2 名司機。首先，我們減少了飛行運力，並將成本重新投資到業務中。那是一個。第二部分是我們在下半年討論最多的，也就是維護方面的投資以及與維護相關的成本。而這些確實是——當你看看我們從最初的目標到最終超過 2 的目標時，你會發現，這些是與此相關的兩個最大的驅動因素。

When you think about that as we go into New Year [4] here, a lot different backdrop as we're in a more normalized growth environment. When you're thinking and planning and the teams are executing to 3% to 5% growth versus 17% to 20% growth, the focus, really less on this training and hiring and the restoration of the airline, and our operating teams are focused on the operational performance and fine-tuning that. And as you do that, that sets the stage to drive the efficiency and things that -- actions that we took in -- initially were paying off.

當我們想到這一點，當我們進入新的一年[4]時，就會發現情況有很大不同，因為我們處在一個更正常化的成長環境中。當你在思考和計劃時，團隊正在執行 3％ 到 5％ 的增長而不是 17％ 到 20％ 的增長，重點實際上並不太放在培訓、招聘和航空公司的恢復上，我們的運營團隊專注於運營績效和對其進行微調。當你這樣做時，這將為提高效率和我們採取的行動奠定基礎，這些行動最初正在產生回報。

If you look at the maintenance doing a lot of work and there's a lot to still go, but the fourth quarter performance, aircraft out of service down 30%; maintenance cancels down over 80%. So that those actions that they're taking around proactive reliability, getting the touch time on the aircraft [paying dividends], but that's really what allows us when you're in that normalized environment, you can really stay after that consistently day in and day out. That sets the stage for the execution around efficiency.

如果你看看維修工作，還有很多工作要做，但第四季的表現，飛機停飛率下降了 30%；維護取消率超過 80%。因此，他們圍繞著主動可靠性、獲得飛機的觸地時間而採取的行動[產生了回報]，但這確實使我們能夠在正常化環境中日復一日地堅持下去。這為提高效率的執行奠定了基礎。

David, if I could jump in here. It's hard to overstate just how hard it was to bring the full business back up again over the last 2.5 years. And the intensity of that has been phenomenal, and our team has done a great job. It has taken every fiber of our being and hiring and resource we have to try to get ahead of it. We're there now, okay? And you see the results in the fourth quarter, they were remarkable, the best fourth quarter operational results. I think this company has ever posted. And that is, I think, the big opportunity as we enter the year.

大衛，如果我可以插話的話。很難誇大在過去的兩年半中恢復整個業務有多麼困難。這項工作的強度是驚人的，我們的團隊做得非常出色。我們竭盡全力，僱用員工，提供資源，試圖克服它。現在我們到了，好嗎？您可以看到第四季度的業績非常出色，這是最好的第四季度營運業績。我認為這家公司曾經發布過。我認為，這就是我們進入新的一年所面臨最大的機會。

I don't know that we know yet just how much we have available to us as we start to return to a normalized environment and start tweaking those efficiencies. I think it's going to be significant. And it's kind of hard to forecast because this team has been, for the last 2-plus years in a very different part of the build. But I'm confident we're going to see some great, great opportunities. And that's to Jamie's earlier question, why some of my internal expectations of hoping that we can get to that $7 above EPS number. I'm willing to put that number on paper quite yet, but, yes, I think the opportunity is there.

我不知道當我們開始恢復正常環境並開始調整這些效率時，我們到底有多少可用資源。我認為這將會具有重大意義。這很難預測，因為這支球隊在過去兩年多的時間裡一直處於非常不同的建設階段。但我確信我們將會看到一些極好的機會。這就是 Jamie 之前提出的問題，為什麼我的一些內心期望是希望我們能夠達到每股收益 7 美元以上的數字。我願意把這個數字寫在紙上，但是，是的，我認為機會是存在的。

Just to maybe kind of follow up on that point a little bit. If you think about the optimization efficiency gains that are ahead of you, I appreciate that it's hard to quantify at all, but can you give us a sense for what the driver of some of these things are kind of big picture-wise, is it about utilization of aircraft? Is it about getting the staffing optimized? Or is it more about just working some of the friction costs in the business out and sort of continuously improving and chasing down a bunch of little dogs and cats across the business. I'm just trying to get a sense for kind of what do we look at here? Are we looking at a large set of projects? Or are there 1 or 2 things that are going to be super pivotal around the optimization side of this?

只是想稍微跟進一下這一點。如果您考慮未來的最佳化效率提升，我知道這很難量化，但您能否從大局上告訴我們這些事情的驅動因素是什麼，是否與飛機的利用率有關？是為了優化人員配置嗎？或者它更多的只是解決業務中的一些摩擦成本，並不斷改進和追逐業務中的一群小貓小狗。我只是想知道我們在這裡看到的是什麼？我們是否正在考慮一組大型專案？或者，在最佳化方面，是否有 1 或 2 件事至關重要？

David, I think it's all of the above. And it's not just what you mentioned on the cost side. It's also on the revenue side. Consumer behaviors have changed a lot. And to this point, we've been using somewhat older models to predict behavioral patterns. And we now have actually a good baseline over the last 1.5 years of what -- how consumers are purchasing, what they're purchasing, when they want to travel which Glen and his team will use to drive better network and revenue outcomes for our business. It's in the cost line.

大衛，我認為以上都是。這不僅僅是您所提到的成本方面的問題。這也與收入有關。消費者行為發生了很大變化。到目前為止，我們一直在使用一些較舊的模型來預測行為模式。在過去的一年半里，我們實際上已經對消費者的購買方式、購買的產品以及他們何時想要旅行有了一個很好的了解，格倫和他的團隊將利用這些了解為我們的業務帶來更好的網絡和收入結果。它處於成本線內。

The fact that we have 10% more employees today than we had at this point pre-pandemic, essentially driving the same level of operations, a tremendous amount of opportunity to get efficient. But when the operators know what they can count on and they've got the arms around the full operation.

事實上，與疫情之前相比，我們目前的員工人數增加了 10%，基本上保持了相同的營運水平，這為提高效率提供了巨大的機會。但是當操作員知道他們可以依靠什麼並且他們能夠掌控整個操作時。

I think you're going to see the cash register start to ring with cost and savings efficiency. So I know it's a bet on -- that come a little bit, but I'm optimistic we'll get there. But it's really hard to quantify at the same time.

我想你會看到收銀機開始隨著成本和節省效率而響起。所以我知道這是一個賭注——雖然結果有點難以預測，但我樂觀地認為我們會實現目標。但同時，量化確實非常困難。

Your next question is coming from Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

I know your commentary on demand sounds pretty good, but can you unpack a little bit more detail on what you're seeing in the forward booking curve through spring break and maybe even the activity through like the Paris Olympics over the summer, kind of what kind of forward indicator do you have that people might be traveling more?

我知道您對需求的評論聽起來不錯，但您能否更詳細地介紹一下春假期間的預訂曲線，甚至是夏季巴黎奧運會等活動的情況，您有什麼樣的前瞻性指標表明人們可能會更多地出行？

Well, I think I mentioned it as a response to one of the other questions, but we have pretty good visibility on the early bookings for the summer transatlantic season. And we have a higher book load factor as well as higher yields. So those are the 2 things we watch for, and both are indicating quite positive for the transatlantic.

嗯，我想我提到它是作為對另一個問題的回答，但我們對夏季跨大西洋航線的早期預訂情況有相當好的了解。我們的訂單負載率和收益率都更高。這是我們關注的兩件事，而且兩件事都對跨大西洋貿易產生了正面影響。

The U.S. has, of course, closer in booking curve. But as far as we can see out through a spring break, things look great for the U.S. And as I mentioned earlier, some of the close-end beach resorts have a little bit too much industry capacity this year that will probably get rationalized out over time, but still won't be very profitable as we move through the peak winter season.

當然，美國的預訂曲線更為接近。但就我們所知，春假期間美國的情況看起來不錯。

And then as Pacific [rush], as we continue to lap the buildup of our Pacific as we move through the year, we expect those unit revenues to accelerate demand, particularly strong to the Incheon hub as well as to Japan in the spring season. So very exciting as we look forward. I hope we can beat -- outdo our plan.

然後隨著太平洋航線的不斷開通，隨著我們全年繼續拓展太平洋航線，我們預計這些單位收入將加速需求，特別是春季對仁川樞紐和日本的需求強勁。我們非常興奮地期待著。我希望我們能夠超越我們的計劃。

Got it. And apologies if I missed this earlier, but did you -- I mean, some of your peers are having issues with the potential extended grounding of some aircraft for inspections -- do you see any kind of spillover benefit for that in the short term? And kind of -- is any of that in your 1Q guidance?

知道了。如果我之前沒有提到這一點，請原諒，但您是否——我的意思是，您的一些同行對某些飛機可能因檢查而延長停飛時間感到擔憂——您是否認為這在短期內會帶來任何溢出效益？並且 - 這些內容在您的第一季指引中嗎？

Yes. We see minimal improvements in what we have seen is mostly in Seattle, where they've had to cancel a significant portion of their schedule out of Seattle. But we'll see how long that stays out. But right now, I wouldn't say it's a significant number of that grander scheme of things. It's significant for Seattle but not significant for our whole network.

是的。我們看到的情況只有微小的改善，主要是在西雅圖，他們不得不取消西雅圖出發的大部分行程。但我們將看看這種情況會持續多久。但現在，我不會說這是宏偉計劃中的一個重要數字。這對西雅圖來說意義重大，但對我們的整個網路來說並不重要。

Your next question is coming from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Maybe just on the cadence of the non-op savings and the component drivers of that? Is it spread pretty evenly throughout the year? Or is it more kind of second half weighted?

也許只是關於非操作節省的節奏及其組件驅動因素？它在全年中分佈得比較均勻嗎？或者說它更多的是下半部加權？

The driver is $75 million to $100 million, really driven by interest expense. And as we've accelerated the debt reduction action, that drives the benefit. We expect pension to be flat on a year-over-year basis. The team did a great job. The pension delivered at or slightly above its targeted return. So no headwind associated with that. You get some -- a little bit around some of the equity earnings of our partners, but we expect to be pretty consistent throughout the year due to the interest reduction, savings coming through as you progress through the year.

驅動因素是 7500 萬到 1 億美元，實際上是由利息支出推動的。隨著我們加快減債行動，這會帶來效益。我們預計退休金將同比持平。該團隊表現出色。該退休金的回報率達到或略高於目標回報率。因此，這與逆風無關。您可以獲得一些 - 大約是我們合作夥伴的一些股權收益，但我們預計全年收益將相當穩定，因為隨著一年的進展，利息會減少，儲蓄也會隨之增加。

And then just a follow-up for Glen. You've done a nice job taking some active steps to -- on the capacity sequentially 4Q to 1Q. But could you just speak to seasonality and maybe by entity where is seasonality a lot different than it used to be, where is it kind of normalized. So any sort of key trends you'd highlight in change in the underlying seasonal patterns here into the first quarter?

接下來是 Glen 的後續報導。您已經做得很好，採取了一些積極的措施，從第 4 季到第 1 季連續提高產能。但是您能否只談談季節性，也許從實體上講，季節性與以前有什麼不同，在哪裡是正常化的。那麼，您會強調第一季基本季節性模式變化中哪些關鍵趨勢？

Yes. I think we're at our new norm and our new norm is different than '19, but what I see mainly is an extension of the international seasons. So we mentioned that in an earlier question that -- it used to be the summer peak was just June, July, August. And now I think we're moving into April through March all the way through October is a very strong season, particularly for Southern Europe, Northern Europe starts a little bit later.

是的。我認為我們正處於新的常態，我們的新常態與2019年不同，但我主要看到的是國際賽季的延續。我們在先前的問題中提到過，夏季高峰期通常是六月、七月、八月。現在我認為從四月到三月一直到十月是一個非常旺季，特別是對南歐來說，北歐開始得稍微晚一點。

And then the other thing I just mentioned, I mentioned in an earlier call as well is that, the beach, the Mexican and the Caribbean beaches just seem to have a little bit too much capacity this year and we'll work through that as we go through the year. But it's -- if you look, those are up 20%, 30% across the board and having a little trouble keeping up with that, the demand keeping up with that kind of capacity increase.

我剛才提到的另一件事，我在之前的電話中也提到過，今年墨西哥和加勒比海灘的容量似乎有點太大了，我們會在全年解決這個問題。但如果你看一下，你會發現這些產量全面上漲了 20% 到 30%，而需求跟不上這種產能成長，這有點困難。

And I imagine it is people plan next year that we'll trim on the margin, goes back down again or let that demand catch up. So generally, I think we're in a good spot here with supply and demand. As far as the eye can see. we're positive in all the future months and almost all the future -- in almost every entity with the exception of LAT.

我想人們計劃明年我們會削減利潤，再次回落或讓需求趕上。因此總體而言，我認為我們的供需狀況良好。一望無際。我們對未來幾個月乃至整個未來都持樂觀態度——除了 LAT 之外，幾乎所有實體都是如此。

Your next question is coming from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基。

I guess, Ed or Dan, I mean, looking back from your prior 2021 targets, you guys are guiding at the top end here to effectively reach that. And I think not a lot of people gave you credit. So that's the context of my question.

我想，艾德或丹，我的意思是，回顧你們之前的 2021 年目標，你們正在引導最高層的人有效地實現這一目標。我覺得沒有多少人相信你。這就是我的問題的背景。

But that said, valuation in your stock is still pretty low. I think investors are just concerned that we've seen peak airline profitability and your guidance would effectively say about flat profitability this year in '24 versus '23. So maybe coming back to some of these prior questions, what is in your control that can get profitability higher, maybe looking beyond this year that can give investors comfort that this business should be earning mid-teens?

但話雖如此，你的股票估值仍然相當低。我認為投資者只是擔心我們已經看到航空公司盈利能力達到頂峰，而您的指導實際上意味著今年24年的盈利能力與23年持平。所以也許回到之前的一些問題，您可以控制什麼來提高盈利能力，也許展望今年以後，可以讓投資者放心，這項業務的盈利應該達到十五六歲的水平？

Thanks, Brandon. And you're right. When you think about when we set that target, it was in December of '21. I'll never forget we were at the exchange. I believe you were there. And Omicron was just being announced as the newest variant. So the level of knowledge that we had to the future and where this thing was going, it was candidly, kind of may be a bit crazy for us to put out a 3-year plan, but I thought it was really important and instructive for us as well as our investors to let them see how we're thinking about the progress.

謝謝，布蘭登。你說得對。想想我們設定這個目標的時間，那是在1921年12月。我永遠不會忘記我們在交易所的情景。我相信你當時在場。並且 Omicron 剛剛被宣佈為最新版本。所以，坦白說，考慮到我們對未來的了解程度以及事情的發展方向，制定三年計劃可能有點瘋狂，但我認為，讓我們以及我們的投資者了解我們對進展的看法，這確實非常重要且具有指導意義。

And the great news is through the first 2 years, we are at, if not ahead of plan along that way. And I think if I was to go back and say what has changed that maybe has given me a little bit of pause for $7, not longer term, but just in the short term. I think it's the higher cost of labor, certainly was not known back then, the higher inflation rates were not known back then. And most importantly, the supply chain constraints.

好消息是，在最初的兩年裡，我們的進度即使沒有提前規劃，也達到了計畫。我認為，如果我回頭說發生了什麼變化，也許這會讓我對 7 美元稍微猶豫一下，不是長期的，而只是短期的。我認為這是勞動成本較高的原因，這在當時肯定是未知的，當時也沒有人知道較高的通貨膨脹率。最重要的是供應鏈的限制。

The full extent we're not -- clearly not known -- have no knowledge of the challenges we face. So when you think about all the macros we encountered, I think we've done a very good job of controlling those things that we can control. And as you've heard from several of the questions, I still internally am targeting us to get to that $7 number this year. And I think we can. I really do. But I think it's also prudent that we give a nod to some of those macros that we're facing. I think the optimization opportunities, as I mentioned, are significant, and they run across every single part of this business.

我們對自己所面臨的挑戰的了解程度顯然不了解。因此，當你考慮到我們遇到的所有巨集時，我認為我們在控制我們可以控制的事情方面已經做得很好了。正如您在幾個問題中聽到的那樣，我內心仍然以今年達到 7 美元的數字為目標。我認為我們可以。我確實如此。但我認為，對我們面臨的一些宏觀問題給予認可也是明智之舉。我認為，正如我所提到的，優化機會非常重要，它們涉及到這個業務的每個部分。

And all of our leaders are working hard to ensure that we're delivering an excellent quality product, which unleashes that optimization benefits. I think the work that we're doing on the balance sheet with all the debt reduction is derisking and taking that down is important. We're on track with our free cash flow guidance, $3 billion to $4 billion this year. And we're still looking at a $10 billion target between ['23 and '25] for free cash. So I think there's -- you're right, there's a lot of noise that "we're lowering guidance." I don't really look at it that way. I think it's giving nod to some of the macro realities. And I wanted to give you a prudent estimate to what we are confident we can deliver this year with a nod towards -- there's some real upside here.

我們所有的領導者都在努力確保我們提供優質的產品，從而發揮優化優勢。我認為我們在資產負債表上所做的工作以及削減債務都是在降低風險，降低風險非常重要。我們的自由現金流預期今年將達到 30 億至 40 億美元。我們仍在尋求在 ['23 年至 '25 年] 期間實現 100 億美元的自由現金目標。所以我認為——你是對的，有很多聲音說「我們正在降低指導」。我其實不這麼認為。我認為這是對一些宏觀現實的認可。我想對我們有信心今年能夠實現的目標做出一個審慎的估計，並且承認——這確實存在一些上行空間。

And then, Dan, the maintenance issues have been present now for probably over a year, if not longer. I guess what are you doing longer-term planning to maybe mitigate that and is there any favorable offset longer term here in your MRO business?

丹，維修問題可能已經存在一年多了，甚至更久。我想問一下，您正在做什麼長期計劃來緩解這種情況，並且您的 MRO 業務是否有任何長期有利的抵消措施？

The one is we continue as we get into a period here where we're more normalized in growth. It's allowing us to extend our planning horizon, where we're able to look out on a rolling not only 12 but 18, 24, 36 months. And I think the more visibility and stability that we get from that allows us to better plan as it relates back into how we run our fleet and how we balance that capacity with cost. And I think that will continue to give us more certainty around that.

一是，隨著我們進入一個成長更正常化的時期，我們會繼續發展。它使我們能夠擴大我們的規劃範圍，使我們不僅能夠展望未來 12 個月，還能展望未來 18、24、36 個月。我認為，我們所獲得的更高的可見度和穩定性使我們能夠更好地規劃如何運作我們的車隊以及如何平衡運力和成本。我認為這將繼續為我們帶來更多的確定性。

The other piece is just the heavy lift that our entire tech ops team has in working closely with the supply chain and with all our partners across that, getting clarity in regards to the things that they need to do, and we can do on their behalf as it relates to Delta in regards to continuing to improve the execution of that over time. And we've got to work closely with those partners to continue to improve that.

另一部分是我們的整個技術營運團隊所承擔的重任，他們與供應鏈以及所有合作夥伴密切合作，明確他們需要做的事情，以及我們可以代表他們做的事情，因為這與達美航空有關，並且會隨著時間的推移不斷改進執行情況。我們必須與這些合作夥伴密切合作，繼續改善這一點。

And then to the last piece on MRO, yes, there will be an opportunity to continue to grow, I think, as we've talked about before, we're well positioned on all these platforms. The focus has been, and we'll be right here, making sure that we've got strong foundation on Delta and Delta's fleet, but we also do have an eye to continue to grow the MRO business, and you'll start to see that start this year, but really in earnest in the years 2 and 3 years out.

然後是關於 MRO 的最後一部分，是的，我們將有機會繼續成長，我認為，正如我們之前談到的，我們在所有這些平台上都處於有利地位。我們一直以來的重點是確保達美航空和達美航空機隊擁有堅實的基礎，但我們也著眼於繼續發展 MRO 業務，您將從今年開始看到這一點，但真正認真起來則要等到第二年和第三年。

Your next question is coming from Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·迪多拉（Andrew Didora）。

A question for Glen. I guess, I think you started ramping up your core hub growth in the middle of 2023. Is there any way you can quantify with what the benefits of this build out were to your kind of revenue performance over the back half? And what share of your capacity growth this year will be growth in these hubs?

問格倫一個問題。我想，您是在 2023 年中期開始加速核心樞紐的成長的。今年你們的運能成長中有多少是來自這些樞紐的成長？

I think we've just alluded to, a majority of our growth will be in our core hubs or to partner hubs. So probably 75% to 80% of our growth will be in those locations. We feel that we accelerated the coastal gateway growth earlier in the process with our once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to become the leading carriers in markets like Los Angeles and Boston and those are paying huge dividends for us as we head into '24 with Boston, for example, leading the unit revenue ascension for this quarter.

我想我們剛才提到過，我們的大部分成長將集中在核心中心或合作夥伴中心。因此，我們 75% 到 80% 的成長可能將來自於這些地區。我們認為，我們早期就利用千載難逢的機會加速了沿海門戶航空的成長，使我們成為洛杉磯和波士頓等市場的領先航空公司，而這些機會為我們帶來了巨大的紅利，因為進入2024年，波士頓航空引領了本季度的單位收入增長。

So we're really, really pleased with the way it gets shaked out, and we still have some more rebuild to do in our core hubs. It will probably take us through this year and into next year given the lower growth rates that we have. But that's what we're working on for the next 18 to 24 months.

因此，我們對它的解決方式感到非常非常滿意，而且我們的核心樞紐還有一些重建工作要做。鑑於我們的成長率較低，這很可能會持續到今年和明年。但這正是我們未來 18 到 24 個月要努力的目標。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just, Dan, in the $3 billion to $4 billion of free cash flow, are you assuming any sort of cash taxes this year? Or when do you expect to become a cash tax payer? I thought it was a number of years out, but just curious if there's any update there.

知道了。這很有幫助。那麼丹，在 30 億到 40 億美元的自由現金流中，您是否假設今年會產生任何形式的現金稅？或是您預計何時成為現金納稅人？我以為已經是好幾年後的事情了，但我只是好奇是否有任何更新。

No, we don't expect cash taxes this year. And we'd expect that potentially cash tax payments starting in 2025 and beyond.

不，我們預計今年不會徵收現金稅。我們預計從 2025 年及以後開始可能以現金支付稅款。

Matthew, we'll now go to our final analyst question before then going over to the media.

馬修，我們現在來回答分析師的最後一個問題，然後再交給媒體。

Your next question is coming from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

Maybe a quick one for me. Just you talked about pilot hiring being down 50% year-over-year, and you heard similar comments from the industry. Just curious what that means for your kind of regional operation. And if there was much of a drag in 2023, either to cost or to revenue from that operation and what you kind of expect this year and next year?

對我來說也許很快。您剛才談到飛行員招募數量同比下降了 50％，而且您也聽到了業界類似的評論。只是好奇這對你們的區域運作意味著什麼。如果 2023 年對該業務的成本或收入造成很大拖累，您對今年和明年的預期是什麼？

So thanks for that question. And I think that plays well into some of the other themes that we've talked about, what are the potential upsides to our plan that could get you towards the $7. We have planned for stability in the regionals after 2.5 years of really instability where we didn't know how many hours we had really 3 to 4 months ahead of time. And what we've seen is that there is a lot more stability. What we haven't accounted for is the full utilization of our fleet. So we still have 50 to 100 airplanes and less of utilization than we are -- than we have on the ground in our fleet. So should that lower hiring at the Mainline translate into more availability in the back half of the year, that would be potential upside to our P&L.

感謝您的提問。我認為這與我們討論過的其他一些主題很契合，我們的計劃有哪些潛在的優勢可以讓你達到 7 美元的目標。在經歷了 2.5 年的真正不穩定之後，我們已經為地區的穩定做好了計劃，在這段時間裡，我們不知道我們實際上提前 3 到 4 個月有多少小時可用。我們看到，穩定性大大提高。我們尚未考慮到我們船隊的全部利用率。因此，我們仍然擁有 50 到 100 架飛機，而且利用率低於我們機隊地面上的飛機數量。因此，如果 Mainline 的招聘人數減少意味著下半年有更多的可用職位，那麼這將對我們的損益表產生潛在的好處。

All right. That will wrap up the analyst portion of the call. I'll now turn it over to Tim Mapes to start the media questions.

好的。分析師電話會議部分到此結束。現在我將把時間交給提姆·梅佩斯開始回答媒體問題。

Thank you, Julie. Matthew, if we could reiterate for the members of the media, the instructions with regard to accessing the call and follow-ups, please.

謝謝你，朱莉。馬修，請我們向媒體成員重申有關接取電話會議和後續行動的指示。

At this time, we'll be conducting a Q&A session for media questions.

此時，我們將舉行媒體問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Your first question is coming from Ted Reed from Forbes.

您的第一個問題來自《富比士》的泰德·里德。

It's for Glen. I just wondered if the Delta passenger in 2024 looks different than the passenger in 2023. And I'm also asking whether the age of revenge travel is over and are we past revenge travel.

這是給格倫的。我只是想知道 2024 年的達美航空乘客是否與 2023 年的乘客不同。

Well, I mean, this is all an opinion, right, is that revenge travel, I think, has years to go, particularly in long-haul international. When you look at the aging of the demographics that people in their retirement years want to travel. And they were involved with the ability to travel for 3 years, and we weren't able to accommodate them all last year. I think that we continue the accommodation of that for the next several years, we still [that's the link that level sets that]. I think domestically, we've done that the revenge travel was early in the process, and we're kind of at our new equilibrium, and that gives us the opportunity to optimize as we move forward. And do they look different? They always looked different.

嗯，我的意思是，這都只是一種觀點，對吧，我認為報復性旅行還有很長的路要走，特別是在長途國際旅行方面。當你看到人口老化時，你會發現退休後的人都想要去旅行。他們有權旅行 3 年，但去年我們無法為他們提供所有旅行安排。我認為，我們會在接下來的幾年裡繼續適應這種情況，我們仍然[這是該等級設定的連結]。我認為在國內，我們已經完成了報復性旅行，這只是個開始，我們目前處於新的平衡狀態，這給了我們在未來進行最佳化的機會。它們看起來有什麼不同嗎？他們總是看起來與眾不同。

As for destinations, are we more in a unique -- is it more unique transatlantic that they're looking at or more the traditional transatlantic or something else?

至於目的地，我們是否更獨特——他們所關注的是更獨特的跨大西洋航線，還是更傳統的跨大西洋航線，或是其他什麼？

I think it's more the traditional. Italy, Spain, those are 2 of the -- Italy, Spain, Greece are such hotspots, Portugal is a hotspot. I think during the peak summer, we're really excited about the prospect of bringing SAS along with us and now having hubs in Copenhagen and Stockholm that will allow us to have even more destinations in Europe than we serve today.

我認為它更加傳統。義大利、西班牙是其中兩個——義大利、西班牙、希臘是這樣的熱點地區，葡萄牙也是一個熱點地區。我認為在夏季高峰期，我們對於將 SAS 引入我們的前景感到非常興奮，現在我們在哥本哈根和斯德哥爾摩擁有樞紐，這將使我們能夠擁有比現在更多的歐洲目的地。

Your next question is coming from Kelly Yamanouchi from Atlanta Journal Constitution.

您的下一個問題來自《亞特蘭大憲法報》的凱利山之內 (Kelly Yamanouchi)。

Ed, you mentioned having 10% more employees today than pre-pandemic as essentially driving the same level of operations and the opportunity to get efficient. I was wondering if that means growing operations with the same number of employees or potentially cutting the staffing level?

艾德，您提到，如今的員工數量比疫情前增加了 10%，這基本上保持了相同的營運水平，並且有機會提高效率。我想知道這是否意味著在員工數量不變的情況下擴大業務還是可能削減員工數量？

Kelly, no, there's no plans just to cut staffing levels at all. This is about our people being able to garner more experience because a lot of the new employees that we've added over the last few years are adding to that 10% and continuing to be a bit more efficient in productivity and the staffing levels. But no, we have no intention to make any reductions in people.

凱利，不，根本沒有削減員工數量的計劃。這是為了讓我們的員工能夠獲得更多經驗，因為我們在過去幾年中新增的許多新員工都為這 10% 做出了貢獻，並且在生產力和人員配備水平方面繼續變得更加高效。但我們無意減少人員。

Your next question is coming from Leslie Josephs from CNBC.

您的下一個問題來自 CNBC 的 Leslie Josephs。

Wondering if you were seeing any increased bookings since United and Alaska has had to ground their MAX 9s. And then separately, maybe this is a question more for Glenn. But do you think you're done with the measures that you had to take last year in terms of the SkyMiles program and lounges to sort of combat crowding since this year is going to be so busy. And if you have enough premium seats to offer the market, currently.

想知道自從美聯航和阿拉斯加航空停飛 MAX 9 以來，預訂量是否有所增加。另外，也許這個問題更多的是針對格倫的。但是，您是否認為，由於今年的航空客流量很大，為了緩解擁擠狀況，您去年在「飛凡哩程常客計畫」和休息室方面採取的措施已經完成？如果您目前有足夠的高級席位來供應市場。

Well, I'll take the second question, first is we made some serious changes to our programs that were designed to really put the right people in the right category so that we could deliver industry-leading premium experiences. And as you know, while they were announced in the fall, most of them don't take into effect until 2025. And I think what we've estimated is that should -- we should be done with that those kinds of major changes to our programs. Of course, those programs are always changing. But I think the changes moving forward will be much more minimal. So I think that's behind us. We'll see how that plays out at the end of -- by the end of this year and into '25. And your other question was? Max?

好吧，我來回答第二個問題，首先，我們對我們的計劃做了一些重大改變，旨在將合適的人放在合適的類別中，以便我們能夠提供行業領先的優質體驗。如你所知，雖然這些措施是在秋季宣布的，但大多數措施要到 2025 年才生效。當然，這些計劃總是在不斷變化。但我認為，未來發生的變化將會小得多。所以我認為這已經過去了。我們將拭目以待今年底至25年的情況將如何發展。您的另一個問題是？最大限度？

On bookings. Yes. Since the grounding.

關於預訂。是的。自停飛以來。

We've seen a small uptick specifically in Seattle, but Seattle is a small portion of our entire system. So it's kind of minimal in the grander scheme of things, but it's relevant in Seattle.

我們在西雅圖看到了小幅上漲，但西雅圖只是我們整個系統的一小部分。因此，從總體來看，這有點微不足道，但與西雅圖有關。

Your next question is coming from Mary Schlangenstein from Bloomberg News.

您的下一個問題來自彭博新聞社的 Mary Schlangenstein。

Yes. My question was asked.

是的。我的問題被問到了。

Your next question is coming from Alison Sider from Wall Street Journal.

您的下一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的艾莉森賽德 (Alison Sider)。

I was wondering, do you still think Delta still has the same advantage over rivals just in terms of reliability in its operation? And is that something that you're kind of working on?

我想知道，您是否仍然認為達美航空在營運可靠性方面仍比競爭對手具有優勢？這就是你正在做的事情嗎？

Ali, this is Ed. The one thing that we've seen over the last couple of years, which has been great for our customers is that the overall reliability in the industry has improved. And carriers increasingly are competing over operational performance rather than other -- some other things in the past that people may have been focused against. And I think that's great. And I think it pushes us to be even better. And I think it's a great outcome for the industry as a whole. So yes, the competition is definitely more focused on reliability than ever before, and I still expect Delta to maintain its premium lead in that sector.

阿里，這是艾德。過去幾年我們看到的一件對我們的客戶來說非常有利的事情就是整個產業的整體可靠性提高了。並且，營運商越來越多地在營運績效方面競爭，而不是過去人們可能關注的其他一些方面。我認為這很棒。我認為這會促使我們變得更好。我認為這對整個行業來說是一個很好的結果。因此，是的，競爭肯定比以往任何時候都更加重視可靠性，我仍然希望達美航空能夠在該領域保持領先地位。

And then if I could ask about sort of labor shortages. Are you concerned at all or starting to feel the impact of the shortage of maintenance workers. Is that something you expect to come to head this year?

然後我可以問一下關於勞動力短缺的問題嗎？您是否擔心或開始感受到維護工人短缺的影響？您預計這會在今年成為現實嗎？

We are not experiencing any issues around labor shortages, maybe in very small isolated places. We still have some additional people we'd like to bring in. But we are at where we need to be. And for us, it's less about the shortages, it's more about the new people that we brought on, continuing to gain experience. And that's a big deal, particularly in the maintenance area.

我們沒有遇到任何勞動力短缺的問題，也許在非常小的偏遠地區會遇到。我們仍想引進一些新人。對我們來說，問題不在於人員短缺，而是我們引進新人才，不斷累積經驗。這是一件大事，特別是在維修領域。

Thank you, Ali. Matthew, we have time for one final question, please.

謝謝你，阿里。馬修，我們還有時間問最後一個問題。

Your last question is coming from Robert Silk from Travel Weekly.

您的最後一個問題來自《旅遊周刊》的羅伯特·希爾克（Robert Silk）。

Glen, you mentioned that you all had gained corporate share this year. I'm wondering if you could elaborate on what caused that, you think, how you gained it? And there was any impact, some of it might have come from the removing of fares from the traditional GDS channel but other -- your main competitors?

格倫，你提到今年你們都獲得了公司股份。我想知道您是否可以詳細說明一下是什麼原因造成的，您認為您是如何獲得這種症狀的？是否有任何影響，其中一些可能來自於傳統 GDS 管道取消票價，但其他——您的主要競爭對手？

Yes. I think one of the issues were, we were very inventory constrained in 2022 as we were behind the industry in our rebuild. And in 2023, we caught up back to basically a pre-pandemic level of capacity. And those additional seats were enabled to more corporates to get on the aircraft. I'd say what's different about now versus pre-pandemic is that before the pandemic and before the segmentation of customers the differential between the yields on corporate and the yields on noncorporate high-end leisure were significant.

是的。我認為其中一個問題是，由於我們的重建落後於產業，我們在 2022 年的庫存非常受限。到了 2023 年，我們的產能基本上恢復到疫情前的水準。這些額外的座位使得更多的企業旅客能夠登上飛機。我想說，現在與疫情之前的不同之處在於，在疫情之前和客戶細分之前，企業高端休閒的收益率與非企業高端休閒的收益率之間的差異很大。

And these days, those have closed. So now you have competition for the premium seats between those 2 categories that didn't exist pre-pandemic. And that's exciting for us as we manage them, but I think getting more seats available is one of the key priorities in the premium sector so that we can accommodate all the demand.

如今，這些都已經關閉了。因此，現在這兩個類別的高階席位之間存在競爭，而這種競爭在疫情之前是不存在的。對於我們管理這些航班而言，這是令人興奮的，但我認為，獲得更多座位是高端航班的關鍵優先事項之一，這樣我們才能滿足所有需求。

Okay. So what about seeing any sort of share shift based upon your strategy of leaving all your fares available in a traditional, matter of fact, GDS.

好的。那麼，如果您的策略是將所有票價保留在傳統的、事實上的 GDS 中，那麼您認為份額變化會怎麼樣？

Yes. Clearly, we think that our strategy is more customer friendly, and I'm sure that's part of it, but we don't quantify it.

是的。顯然，我們認為我們的策略更加以客戶為中心，我相信這是其中的一部分，但我們不會量化它。

Matthew, that will wrap up the call. If you want to close it up.

馬修，通話到此結束。如果你想關閉它。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation today.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您今天的參與。