達美航空 (DAL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Delta Air Lines December Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call.

大家早安，歡迎參加達美航空 12 月季度和 2023 年全年財務業績電話會議。

My name is Matthew, and I will be your coordinator. (Operator Instructions)

我叫馬修，我將是你們的協調員。 （操作員說明）

As a reminder, this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

提醒一下，此通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Julie Stewart, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁朱莉·史都華 (Julie Stewart)。請繼續。

Thank you, Matthew, and good morning. Thanks for joining us for our December quarter and full year 2023 Earnings Call.

謝謝你，馬修，早安。感謝您參加我們 12 月季度和 2023 年全年收益電話會議。

Joining us from Atlanta today are our CEO, Ed Bastian; our President, Glen Hauenstein; and our CFO, Dan Janki. Ed will open the call with an overview of Delta's performance and strategy. Glen will provide an update on the revenue environment, and Dan will discuss costs in our balance sheet. After the prepared remarks, we'll take analyst questions.

今天從亞特蘭大加入我們的是我們的執行長 Ed Bastian；我們的總裁格倫·豪恩斯坦；以及我們的財務長 Dan Janki。 Ed 將首先概述達美航空的業績和策略。格倫將提供收入環境的最新情況，丹將討論我們資產負債表中的成本。在準備好的發言之後，我們將回答分析師的問題。

We ask that you please limit yourself to 1 question and a brief follow-up so that we can get to as many of you as possible. After the analyst Q&A, we'll move to our media questions.

我們要求您只提出 1 個問題並進行簡短的跟進，以便我們能夠與盡可能多的人聯繫。分析師問答結束後，我們將進入媒體問題。

As a reminder, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that may cause such differences are described in Delta's SEC filings.

提醒一下，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，代表我們對未來事件的信念或期望。所有前瞻性陳述均涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。達美航空向 SEC 提交的文件中描述了可能導致此類差異的一些因素。

We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and all results exclude special items unless otherwise noted. You can find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures on the Investor Relations page at ir.delta.com. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.

我們也將討論非公認會計準則財務指標，除非另有說明，所有結果均不包括特殊項目。您可以在 ir.delta.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到我們的非 GAAP 衡量標準的調整表。然後，我會將電話轉給艾德。

Well, thank you, Julie, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us this morning. Earlier today, we reported our full year and December quarter results, posting Fourth Quarter earnings of $1.1 billion or $1.28 per share on record quarterly revenue that was 11% higher than 2022 and an operating margin of 10%. I want to sincerely thank the 100,000 strong Delta team for their outstanding work in delivering these results and serving our customers. Delta carried more travelers this holiday season than any other time in our history, and we delivered industry-leading operational performance, with the #1 system completion factor amongst our peer set throughout the December quarter.

嗯，謝謝你，朱莉，大家早安。我們感謝您今天早上加入我們。今天早些時候，我們公佈了全年和12 月季度業績，第四季度收益為11 億美元，即每股1.28 美元，季度收入創歷史新高，比2022 年高出11%，營業利潤率為10 %。我要衷心感謝 10 萬名強大的達美團隊在實現這些成果和服務客戶方面所做的出色工作。達美航空在這個假期期間運載的旅客數量比歷史上任何時期都要多，我們實現了行業領先的營運績效，在整個 12 月季度的同行中，系統完成率排名第一。

To put that in context, we carried 9 million customers, a record 9 million customers I'd add on 60,000 mainline flights over the holiday period with fewer than 40 cancellations in aggregate. Our December quarter results marked a strong close to year 2 of our 3-year plan.

具體來說，我們運送了 900 萬名乘客，創紀錄的 900 萬名乘客，加上假期期間的 6 萬趟幹線航班，總共取消的航班不到 40 架。我們 12 月的季度業績標誌著我們三年計劃第二年的強勁表現。

For the full year, we reported earnings of $6.25 per share, the second highest EPS result in our history on revenue that was 20% higher than the prior year. We delivered an 11.6% operating margin and pretax income of $5.2 billion, a near doubling over 2022. We generated free cash flow of $2 billion while investing $5.3 billion back into the business, and we improved our leverage by 2 full turns and reinstated our quarterly dividend.

我們公佈的全年每股收益為 6.25 美元，是我們歷史上第二高的每股收益，收入比前一年高出 20%。我們實現了11.6% 的營業利潤率和52 億美元的稅前收入，比2022 年幾乎翻了一番。我們產生了20 億美元的自由現金流，同時向業務投資了53 億美元，我們的槓桿率提高了2 倍，並恢復了季度季度業績。股利。

Return on invested capital was 13.4%, a 5-point improvement from 2022. A tremendous amount of progress, especially if you consider where we sat a short 3 years ago, and I'm so proud of our team across the board. Sharing our financial success is a long-standing pillar of Delta's culture, and I'm thrilled to announce that we'll be rewarding our employees with $1.4 billion in well-earned profit sharing on Valentine's Day. For our employees, the estimated payout will be approximately 10% of eligible 2023 compensation, about double of what last year's payment was. I expect our profit sharing payments will be more than our 3 largest competitors combined.

投資資本回報率為 13.4%，比 2022 年提高了 5 個百分點。這是巨大的進步，特別是考慮到我們在 3 年前的處境，我為我們的團隊感到非常自豪。分享我們的財務成功是達美航空文化的長期支柱，我很高興地宣布，我們將在情人節那天獎勵我們的員工 14 億美元的利潤分享。對於我們的員工來說，預計支付的金額約為 2023 年合格薪酬的 10%，約為去年支付金額的兩倍。我預計我們的利潤分享付款將超過我們三個最大競爭對手的總和。

Our people consistently deliver operational excellence with the relentless focus on raising the bar at every stage of the travel journey to deliver safe, reliable and caring service for our customers. They are the reason our brand and our customer loyalty lead the industry, why Delta was recognized as the world's 12th most admired company by Fortune, and why Glassdoor named us yesterday as the 13th best employer in the country.

我們的員工始終如一地提供卓越的營運服務，不懈地致力於提高旅行旅程的每個階段的標準，為我們的客戶提供安全、可靠和貼心的服務。它們是我們的品牌和客戶忠誠度引領產業的原因，也是達美航空被《財富》評為全球最受尊敬公司第12 名的原因，也是Glassdoor 昨天將我們評為全國最佳雇主第13 名的原因。

In 2023, we made meaningful investments in our people, our operation and our customers. We provided well-deserved pay increases for the Delta team, continuing our philosophy of industry-leading pay, for industry-leading performance. In the operation, the investments that we made supported the best-in-class operational performance that Delta has long been known for. Our operational excellence was recognized by Cirium last week which named us yet again the most on-time airline in North America. Our people and our operational reliability are the foundation of Delta's trusted consumer brand and we are building on that foundation as we elevate the premium flying experience and grow our SkyMiles members engagement with Delta.

2023 年，我們對員工、營運和客戶進行了有意義的投資。我們為達美團隊提供了當之無愧的加薪，延續了我們業界領先的薪酬理念，以實現業界領先的績效。在營運中，我們所做的投資支持了達美航空長期以來聞名的一流營運績效。我們的卓越營運上週得到了 Cirium 的認可，再次將我們評為北美最準點的航空公司。我們的員工和營運可靠性是達美值得信賴的消費者品牌的基礎，我們將在此基礎上不斷提升優質飛行體驗並提高「飛凡哩程常客計畫」會員與達美的互動。

Today, we also announced an order for 20 Airbus 350-1000 aircraft with options for 20 more for delivery starting in 2026. These planes complement our fleet strategy and will offer a world-class customer experience for international travelers with more premium seats, higher gauge and great customer amenities. These aircraft are over 20% more fuel efficient than the 767s that they'll be replacing, further supporting our long-term sustainability goals.

今天，我們也宣布訂購20 架空中巴士350-1000 飛機，並可選擇從2026 年開始交付另外20 架飛機。這些飛機補充了我們的機隊策略，並將透過更多優質座位、更高規格為國際旅客提供世界一流的客戶體驗和一流的客戶設施。這些飛機的燃油效率比它們將要取代的 767 多 20% 以上，進一步支持我們的長期永續發展目標。

And with the successful launch of fast, free WiFi and Delta Sync, we are enhancing the in-flight entertainment experience for SkyMiles members. We expect to have these products rolled out globally by the end of this year.

隨著快速、免費 WiFi 和達美同步的成功推出，我們正在增強「飛凡哩程常客計畫」會員的機上娛樂體驗。我們預計這些產品將於今年底在全球推出。

On the ground, we are building the airports of the future in some of the most important markets and adding new Delta Sky Clubs to provide our customers a world-class airport experience. We completed our transformation at Los Angeles 18 months ahead of schedule, including a state-of-the-art facility and a new Delta Sky Club that was named North America's Best Airline Lounge for 2023 by Business Traveler. We opened the latest phase of our Salt Lake City expansion and will complete the generational rebuild of LaGuardia this year.

在實地，我們正在一些最重要的市場建造未來機場，並增設新的達美航空飛凡貴賓室，為我們的客戶提供世界一流的機場體驗。我們提前 18 個月完成了洛杉磯的改造，包括最先進的設施和新的達美航空飛凡貴賓室，該客艙被《商務旅行者》評為 2023 年北美最佳航空公司休息室。我們啟動了鹽湖城擴建的最新第一工程，並將於今年完成拉瓜迪亞機場的世代重建。

Our digital investments continue as we work to increase our agility and provide employees with better tools and customers with a more seamless experience. Customers visited the Fly Delta app over 1 billion times last year using our self-service tools almost 10x more often than 2019 with much higher overall satisfaction.

我們持續進行數位投資，努力提升敏捷性，為員工提供更好的工具，為客戶提供更無縫的體驗。去年，客戶使用我們的自助服務工具存取 Fly Delta 應用程式的次數超過 10 億次，幾乎比 2019 年增加了 10 倍，整體滿意度也更高。

As 2024 begins, our enterprise has moved from a period of restoration to optimization. We are focused on delivering excellent reliability, elevating the customer experience and improving efficiency across the company to support continued growth in our earnings and our cash flow. We expect demand to remain strong particularly for the premium experiences that Delta provides.

2024年伊始，我們的企業已從恢復期轉向優化期。我們致力於提供卓越的可靠性、提升客戶體驗並提高整個公司的效率，以支持我們的收入和現金流的持續成長。我們預計需求將保持強勁，尤其是達美航空提供的優質體驗。

Consumer spend is continuing to shift from goods to services and our customer base is in a healthy financial position with travel remaining a top priority. And corporate travel continues to improve with demand accelerating into year-end.

消費者支出繼續從商品轉向服務，我們的客戶群財務狀況良好，旅行仍然是重中之重。隨著年底需求加速成長，商務旅行持續改善。

On supply, industry growth is normalizing after several years of network restoration. For 2024, we plan to grow Delta's capacity 3% to 5%, below the mid-single-digit range that we discussed at our June Investor Day as we've refined our plan.

在供應方面，經過幾年的網路恢復後，產業成長正在正常化。到 2024 年，我們計劃將達美航空的運力增加 3% 至 5%，低於我們在 6 月投資者日討論的中個位數範圍，因為我們已經完善了計劃。

Domestically, supply and demand are coming into better balance as the industry adjusts to rising cost of production, and we are seeing a positive inflection in domestic unit revenue growth. Internationally, we expect another strong year as we optimize our network and leverage our global JV partners.

在國內，隨著產業適應生產成本上升，供需正趨於平衡，我們看到國內單位收入成長出現正面變化。在國際上，隨著我們優化我們的網路並利用我們的全球合資夥伴，我們預計將迎來強勁的一年。

With that backdrop, we are providing full year 2024 guidance for earnings of $6 to $7 per share -- and free cash flow of $3 billion to $4 billion. Free cash guidance is up to $2 billion higher than 2023, driven by growth in profitability, lower CapEx and an improved mix of cash sales. As we continue to grow earnings and reduce debt, we will further reduce leverage and advance our balance sheet towards investment-grade metrics. Glen and Dan will provide more detail shortly, including our outlook for the March quarter.

在此背景下，我們提出 2024 年全年每股盈餘指引為 6 至 7 美元，自由現金流為 30 億至 40 億美元。受獲利能力成長、資本支出降低和現金銷售組合改善的推動，自由現金指引比 2023 年高出 20 億美元。隨著我們繼續增加收益並減少債務，我們將進一步降低槓桿並將我們的資產負債表推向投資等級指標。格倫和丹將很快提供更多細節，包括我們對三月季度的展望。

In closing, the people of Delta delivered a remarkable 2023, leading the industry operationally and financially, while providing a world-class experience for our customers. Delta is well positioned to build on our momentum in the new year with continued growth in earnings, and cash flow in 2024.

最後，達美員工交付了非凡的 2023 年，在營運和財務方面領先於行業，同時為我們的客戶提供世界一流的體驗。達美航空已做好充分準備，在新的一年裡繼續保持強勁勢頭，並在 2024 年實現盈利和現金流的持續增長。

I could not be more excited about what's ahead for Delta and our customers, and I am confident that our returns-focused strategy will drive significant value creation for our owners in the years to come. Thank you again for the support you show to our company. And with that, I'll turn it over to Glen.

我對達美航空和我們的客戶的未來感到非常興奮，我相信我們以回報為中心的策略將在未來幾年為我們的業主創造巨大的價值。再次感謝您對我公司的支持。有了這個，我會把它交給格倫。

Thank you, Ed, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by thanking all of our employees for their hard work and dedication this year. For the full year, we delivered record revenues of $55 billion, about 20% higher than pre-pandemic. Strong execution on our commercial strategy resulted in significant outperformance against the industry, with international delivering record margins and profits. We finished the year with unit revenues 3% higher than 2022, also about 20% above pre-pandemic levels.

謝謝你，艾德，大家早安。首先，我要感謝所有員工今年的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我們全年的收入達到創紀錄的 550 億美元，比疫情前高出約 20%。我們對商業策略的強大執行使我們的業績顯著優於行業，國際業務創造了創紀錄的利潤和利潤。今年結束時，我們的單位收入比 2022 年高出 3%，也比疫情前的水準高出約 20%。

Diversified revenue streams, including premium and loyalty generated 55% of revenue, reflecting Delta's differentiated strategy. Premium led all year with record paid load factors and yield growth outpacing Main Cabin. The rollout of Delta Premium Select on long-haul international is nearly complete and the revenue generation has been above our expectations. As we continue to increase our premium seat mix and segment the cabin through our 5 product strategy, we have structurally improved the international margins. Our loyalty program continued to exceed our expectations with record SkyMiles acquisitions in 2023.

包括保費和忠誠度在內的多元化收入來源佔收入的55%，反映了達美航空的差異化策略。高級艙全年領先，付費載客率創歷史新高，殖利率成長超過經濟艙。達美航空高端精選 (Delta Premium Select) 在國際長途航班上的推出已接近完成，創收超出了我們的預期。隨著我們繼續增加高級座椅組合併透過 5 種產品策略對客艙進行細分，我們在結構上提高了國際利潤率。我們的忠誠度計畫持續超出我們的預期，2023 年「飛凡哩程常客計畫」收購量創紀錄。

Total royalty revenue was up 19% over the prior year with 15% growth in co-brand spend and increasing mix of premium cards in our Amex co-brand portfolio. In recognition of our commitment to the Business Traveler, Delta was named #1 in Business Travel News Airline survey for an unprecedented 13th consecutive year. Delta gained corporate share during the year and successfully launched SkyMiles for business providing small- to medium-sized companies, new benefits to support further growth in the important SME segment.

特許權使用費總收入比上年增長 19%，聯合品牌支出增長 15%，美國運通聯合品牌組合中的優質卡組合不斷增加。為了表彰我們對商務旅客的承諾，達美航空連續 13 年在《商務旅遊新聞》航空公司調查中被評為第一名。達美航空在這一年中獲得了企業份額，並成功推出了“飛凡里程常客計劃”，為中小型企業提供新的福利，以支持重要的中小企業領域的進一步增長。

Corporate sales accelerated into year-end, including double-digit year-over-year growth in the month of December. Technology and financial services led this momentum for the December quarter with media and auto sector seeing notable traction following the strike resolutions. December quarter revenue was a record $13.7 billion, 11% higher than '22. While unit revenues were 3% lower than last year, we are entering the year with momentum in our highest and had experienced our highest cash sales day in history this week.

到年底，企業銷售加速成長，其中 12 月較去年同期成長兩位數。科技和金融服務在 12 月季度引領了這一勢頭，媒體和汽車行業在罷工決議後受到了顯著的關注。 12 月季度營收創紀錄的 137 億美元，比 22 年成長 11%。雖然單位收入比去年下降了 3%，但我們正以最高的勢頭進入新的一年，並在本週經歷了歷史上最高的現金銷售日。

We expect March quarter revenue growth of 3% to 6% over 2023 on capacity growth of 6%, which includes 1 point from Leap Day implying unit revenues will be flat to down 3% over last year. This is a 2-point sequential improvement on a year-over-year basis from the December quarter. Our March quarter faces headwinds from 3 dynamics when compared to last year. These include higher international mix, the normalization of travel credit utilization and lapping our competitors' operational challenges.

我們預計 3 月季度營收將比 2023 年成長 3% 至 6%，運力成長 6%，其中自閏日起增加 1 個百分點，這意味著單位營收將與去年持平或下降 3%。與 12 月所在季度相比，這比去年同期提高了 2 個百分點。與去年相比，我們三月的季度面臨三個動態的阻力。其中包括更高的國際組合、旅行積分使用的正常化以及應對競爭對手的營運挑戰。

Looking through these headwinds, the core fundamentals of the business are improving faster than the headline numbers suggest. With encouraging developments in the domestic environment, we expect domestic unit revenues to inflect to positive in the March quarter. The Transatlantic, our largest international entity continues to perform well with strong demand through the shoulder period, and we expect unit revenues to grow in the March quarter.

縱觀這些不利因素，該業務的核心基本面的改善速度比整體數據所顯示的要快。隨著國內環境的令人鼓舞的發展，我們預計國內單位收入將在三月季度轉為正值。我們最大的國際實體 Transatlantic 繼續表現良好，需求旺盛，我們預計第三季的單位收入將會成長。

In Latin and Pacific, we are rebuilding our networks and improving connectivity with our JV partners, accounting for the majority of capacity growth in the March quarter. These investments are supporting higher short-term profitability but with lower unit revenues.

在拉丁美洲和太平洋地區，我們正在重建網路並改善與合資夥伴的連接，這在三月季度的運力成長中佔了大部分。這些投資支持更高的短期獲利能力，但單位收入較低。

Turning to our outlook for the full year. Premium consumer trends remain strong and spending on travel experiences continues to outpace overall GDP by 2 to 3 points. We expect solid growth in business demand with nearly 95% of respondents in our recent corporate survey expecting to travel as much or more in 1Q than 4Q. This is a double-digit improvement in travel intentions from our last survey. Our commercial strategy in '24 builds on Delta's competitive advantages by optimizing our network, growing high margin revenue streams and investing in our future.

轉向我們對全年的展望。高端消費趨勢依然強勁，旅行體驗支出持續超過整體 GDP 2 至 3 個百分點。我們預計業務需求將穩定成長，在我們最近的企業調查中，近 95% 的受訪者預計第一季的出行次數將與第四季持平或更多。與我們上次調查相比，旅行意願有了兩位數的改善。我們 24 年的商業策略以達美航空的競爭優勢為基礎，優化我們的網絡、增加高利潤收入流並投資於我們的未來。

First, we have a unique opportunity to further optimize Delta's network to capitalize on our strengths in core hubs and JV partner hubs and reflect evolving travel trends. This is the first time we've been able to optimize since pre-pandemic as we now have a good set of demand to optimize from. Second, growing revenue diversification through high-margin sources remains an important differentiator for Delta. We have runway ahead as we continue adding more premium seats to our aircraft further improve our retail capabilities and expand loyalty revenues and travel adjacent services. We expect American Express remuneration to grow 10% over 2023 levels.

首先，我們有一個獨特的機會來進一步優化達美航空的網絡，以利用我們在核心樞紐和合資夥伴樞紐方面的優勢，並反映不斷變化的旅行趨勢。這是自大流行前以來我們第一次能夠進行最佳化，因為我們現在有很多需求可以進行最佳化。其次，透過高利潤來源實現收入多元化仍是達美航空的重要差異化因素。隨著我們繼續在飛機上增加更多高級座位，進一步提高我們的零售能力並擴大忠誠度收入和旅行鄰近服務，我們已經取得了領先地位。我們預期美國運通的薪酬將比 2023 年水準成長 10%。

Finally, we are investing in the future to enhance the premium travel experience through our next-gen fleet, generational airport builds and digital transformation. With continued investment, Delta's brand strength and leadership position will extend in the years ahead.

最後，我們正在投資未來，透過下一代機隊、新一代機場建設和數位轉型來增強優質旅行體驗。透過持續投資，台達的品牌實力和領導地位將在未來幾年得到鞏固。

In closing, I'm incredibly proud of the team's performance in 2023, and we're entering the new year with momentum. I'm excited about Delta's opportunities to grow our lead in 2024. And with that, I'll turn it over to Dan to talk about the financials.

最後，我對團隊 2023 年的表現感到無比自豪，我們正以強勁的勢頭進入新的一年。我對達美航空有機會在 2024 年擴大領先地位感到興奮。接下來，我將把它交給 Dan 來討論財務狀況。

Thank you, Glen, and good morning to everyone. 2023 was another meaningful milestone in restoring our financial foundation. We delivered earnings of $6.25 per share and pretax income of $5.2 billion, nearly double our performance of last year. Operating margins of 11.6% was up 4 points from last year and expected to lead the industry. We generated operating cash flow of $7.2 billion, enabling reinvestment in our people, our fleet and technology. After gross CapEx of $5.3 billion, we generated free cash flow of $2 billion.

謝謝你，格倫，祝大家早安。 2023 年是恢復我們財務基礎的另一個有意義的里程碑。我們實現每股收益 6.25 美元，稅前收入 52 億美元，幾乎是去年業績的兩倍。營業利潤率為 11.6%，比去年提高 4 個百分點，預計將領先產業。我們產生了 72 億美元的營運現金流，能夠對我們的員工、機隊和技術進行再投資。資本支出總額達到 53 億美元後，我們產生了 20 億美元的自由現金流。

During the year, we paid more than $4 billion of gross debt. This included accelerated repayment of $1.7 billion of higher cost debt. We ended the year with liquidity of $6.8 billion and grew our unencumbered assets to $26 billion. Our leverage ratio improved 2 turns to finish the year at 3x. Return on invested capital improved to 13.4%, up 5 points over 2022. S&P upgraded our credit rating in the second half of last year. We are investment-grade rated at Moody's, and we are now only 1 notch away from investment grade with outlooks improving at both S&P and Fitch during the year.

這一年，我們支付了超過 40 億美元的總債務。這包括加速償還 17 億美元的高成本債務。年底，我們的流動性達到 68 億美元，未支配資產增加至 260 億美元。我們的槓桿率提高了 2 倍，年底達到 3 倍。投資資本回報率提高至 13.4%，比 2022 年提高 5 個百分點。標準普爾去年下半年上調了我們的信用評級。我們獲得穆迪投資等級評級，現在距離投資等級僅差 1 級，標普和惠譽的前景在年內均有所改善。

With this progress, we reinstated our dividend last summer, broadening our appeal to yield-focused investors. We closed out the year strong, reporting a December quarter pretax profit of $1.1 billion on operating margins of 9.7%, resulting in earnings of $2.28 per share. Nonfuel unit costs were up 1.1% year-over-year, in line with our guidance.

憑藉這一進展，我們去年夏天恢復了股息，擴大了我們對注重收益的投資者的吸引力。我們以強勁的表現結束了這一年，報告 12 月季度稅前利潤為 11 億美元，營業利潤率為 9.7%，每股收益為 2.28 美元。非燃料單位成本年增 1.1%，與我們的指導一致。

Now moving to our outlook. For the March quarter, we expect earnings of $0.25 to $0.50 per share on approximately 5% operating margin. We expect March quarter fuel price to be $2.50 to $2.70 per gallon with a $0.05 to $0.10 refinery benefit. The refinery profit is expected to be down more than $130 million from last year due to elevated crack spreads in early 2023.

現在轉向我們的展望。對於 3 月季度，我們預計每股收益為 0.25 至 0.50 美元，營業利潤率約為 5%。我們預計 3 月季度燃油價格為每加侖 2.50 美元至 2.70 美元，煉油廠效益為 0.05 美元至 0.10 美元。由於 2023 年初裂解價差上升，煉油廠利潤預計將比去年減少 1.3 億美元以上。

For the full year, we expect to deliver earnings of $6 to $7 per share. With our reduced outlook for capacity growth, we expect full year nonfuel unit cost to be up low single digit over 2023 with the March quarter unit costs up approximately 3%. The last 2 years were a period of intense restoration with unnatural high growth to rebuild our network.

我們預計全年每股收益為 6 至 7 美元。由於我們對運力成長的預期下調，我們預計 2023 年全年非燃料單位成本將成長至個位數，其中 3 月季度的單位成本將成長約 3%。過去兩年是我們網路的大力恢復和非自然高成長的時期。

Growth is normalizing, and we've entered a period of optimization. With a focus on restoring our most profitable core hubs and delivering efficiency gains across the enterprise. The intensity of hiring and training has moderated. And investment in reliability are beginning to pay off with continued improvement in operational performance.

成長趨於常態化，進入最佳化期。重點是恢復我們最賺錢的核心樞紐並在整個企業內提高效率。招募和培訓的強度有所放緩。隨著營運績效的不斷提高，對可靠性的投資開始得到回報。

We expect to deliver efficiencies through the year that will help fund investments in our people, the customer experiences that Ed spoke to earlier. On maintenance, we have a higher number of heavy airframe and engine checks this year, resulting from the timing of new aircraft deliveries over the last decade, and the reactivation of our Flex fleets. At the same time, industry-wide supply chain constraints are continuing, driving higher costs and extended turnaround times.

我們希望在這一年中提高效率，這將有助於為我們的員工投資以及艾德之前談到的客戶體驗提供資金。在維修方面，由於過去十年新飛機的交付時間以及我們 Flex 機隊的重新啟用，今年我們對重型機身和發動機進行了更多的檢查。同時，全行業供應鏈的限制仍在繼續，導致成本上升和周轉時間延長。

For the full year, we expect maintenance expense to be up $350 million over 2023 as we prioritize continued improvement in operational reliability and readying our fleet for the peak summer period. We expect the majority of this increase to be in the early part of the year. Unit cost growth is expected to improve from the March quarter levels as we deliver efficiency and lap investments we've made in the second half of 2023.

我們預計 2023 年全年維護費用將增加 3.5 億美元，因為我們優先考慮持續提高營運可靠性並為夏季高峰期做好準備。我們預計大部分成長將發生在今年年初。隨著我們在 2023 年下半年實現效率和循環投資，單位成本成長預計將較 3 月季度水準有所改善。

Now on to cash flow. We expect cash flow of $3 billion to $4 billion of free cash flow, preluding CapEx of $5 billion. The improvement in free cash flow is driven by growth in profitability, lower CapEx and a higher mix of cash sales. As cash sales are expected to compose a larger percentage of overall bookings as travel credit utilization normalizes. We plan to pay cash for $3 billion of 2024 debt maturities and for approximately 45 aircraft deliveries, growing our unencumbered asset base to $30 billion.

現在談談現金流。我們預期現金流為 30 億至 40 億美元的自由現金流，資本支出為 50 億美元。自由現金流的改善是由獲利能力成長、資本支出降低和現金銷售組合增加所推動的。隨著旅遊積分利用率的正常化，現金銷售預計將在整體預訂中佔據更大的比例。我們計劃為 2024 年到期的 30 億美元債務和約 45 架飛機的交付支付現金，將我們的未支配資產基礎增加到 300 億美元。

We expect to reduce leverage to under 3x, returning the balance sheet to investment-grade metrics, while continuing to invest in the business remains our focus for capital allocation. We'll continue to evaluate shareholder returns with a focus on dividend growth as we reach our targeted leverage.

我們預計將槓桿率降至 3 倍以下，使資產負債表恢復到投資等級指標，同時繼續投資業務仍然是我們資本配置的重點。當我們達到目標槓桿率時，我們將繼續評估股東回報，並專注於股息成長。

In closing, Delta is well positioned as we enter the final year of our 3-year plan to restore our financial foundation. We are continuing to prioritize the objectives we laid out at Investor Day with emphasis on earnings durability, free cash flow and capital efficiency.

最後，隨著我們進入恢復財務基礎的三年計畫的最後一年，達美航空已處於有利位置。我們將繼續優先考慮我們在投資者日制定的目標，重點是獲利持久性、自由現金流和資本效率。

Our industry-leading operational and financial performance is a result of the hard work and dedication of the Delta people. I'd like to thank each of them for what they do every day. With that, I'd like to turn it back to Julie for Q&A.

我們行業領先的營運和財務表現是台達人辛勤工作和奉獻的結果。我要感謝他們每一個人每天所做的事情。說到這裡，我想把它轉回給朱莉問答。

Thanks, Dan. Matthew, can you please remind the analysts how to queue up for questions?

謝謝，丹。 Matthew，您能提醒一下分析師如何排隊提問嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question is coming from Michael Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

你的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的麥可‧林伯格（Michael Linenberg）。

This is a question probably to both Dan and Glen. With the new A350-1000s coming in 2026 and knowing that you do have -- some additional Airbus widebodies delivering over the next few years. Are you still going to be in a situation where maybe you have to extend your 767 fleet. I know that, that is to be fully retired, I think it was going to be by 2025. Will you have enough lift and if not, are we going to see additional investments into maybe some of these older aircraft to keep them running through until you take deliveries of the bigger airplanes.

這可能是丹和格倫共同面臨的問題。隨著新款 A350-1000 將於 2026 年上市，並且知道您確實擁有 — — 一些額外的空中巴士寬體飛機將在未來幾年內交付。您是否仍會面臨需要擴展 767 機隊的情況？我知道，那架飛機將在 2025 年完全退役。你是否有足夠的升力，如果沒有，我們是否會看到對其中一些舊飛機進行額外投資，以保持它們運行直到你接受更大飛機的交付。

As we move through 2025, '24 through the back half of the decade, we expect to retire the 767-300s through that period of time on a pretty consistent basis as you step through while continuing to fly the 400s.

當我們進入 2025 年、24 世紀後半段時，我們預計 767-300 將在這段時間內以相當一致的方式退役，同時您將繼續駕駛 400 型飛機。

So you'll continue to fly the 400s beyond 2025, Dan?

那麼 2025 年後您將繼續飛行 400 架飛機，丹？

Yes...

是的...

Mike, I don't think -- it was never our intent to have those fleet grounded by '25. It was our intent to have them out of international long haul by 2028 and retired by 2030.

麥克，我不認為 - 我們從來沒有打算讓這些機隊在 25 年前停飛。我們的目標是在 2028 年之前讓它們退出國際長途航線，並在 2030 年之前退役。

'30. Yes. Okay. Makes sense. They're a bit younger. And then Glen, just my second question, what was the headwind due to the cancellation of the Israel services in -- the Israel services in the Fourth Quarter? And is that a good way to think about the March quarter impact if you don't restart those services by the 31st.

'30。是的。好的。說得通。他們年紀有點小。然後格倫，這是我的第二個問題，由於第四季度以色列服務的取消，帶來的阻力是什麼？如果您在 31 日之前不重新啟動這些服務，那麼這是考慮 3 月季度影響的好方法嗎？

So Mike, the initial hit was clearly the greatest because as we move through the quarter, we redeployed the assets to other markets. So I would say it was about 1 point of revenue in 4Q and that really goes to very little impact in 1Q and beyond. And of course, we're assessing the issues in Israel. Our current intent we have loaded for sale April. We'll see how that manifests as we move through, but our priority is always safety first. Safety of our customers, our crews, and that's going to be our priority.

因此，麥克，最初的打擊顯然是最大的，因為隨著本季的進展，我們將資產重新部署到其他市場。所以我想說，第四季的收入約為 1 個百分點，這對第一季及以後的影響實際上很小。當然，我們正在評估以色列的問題。我們目前的意向已於四月加載出售。當我們通過時，我們會看到這一點如何體現，但我們的首要任務始終是安全第一。我們的客戶和工作人員的安全將是我們的首要任務。

Your next question is coming from Helane Becker from TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

So 2 questions. One for -- I think, Ed, you mentioned this morning on CNBC that you were seeing improvement in corporate, especially in the tech sector. So I'm kind of wondering if you or Glen can talk about what you're seeing in corporate by sector and maybe by geographic region?

所以有2個問題。一個是——我想，艾德，你今天早上在 CNBC 上提到，你看到了企業的進步，特別是在科技領域。所以我想知道你或格倫是否可以談談你在公司中按行業甚至按地理區域看到的情況？

Well, I'll start and Glen can add his color as well. We are seeing continued improvement in the corporate sector, and we had a number of laggards, tech being, by far, the largest in terms of that had essentially not returned to travel. And we're finally starting to see tech companies traveling again. And again, I think a lot of this is through return to office that is driving some of that, the consultancies as well, which have also been laggards. Again, given their clients have had their offices somewhat reduced office hours, opening is helping there. And we've seen it across the board.

好吧，我先開始，格倫也可以添加他的顏色。我們看到企業部門持續改善，但我們有許多落後者，到目前為止，科技領域是最大的，基本上還沒有回歸旅遊業。我們終於開始看到科技公司再次出遊。再說一次，我認為這很大程度上是透過重返辦公室來推動的，顧問公司也是如此，它們也一直落後。同樣，考慮到他們的客戶的辦公室辦公時間有所減少，開業也有幫助。我們已經全面看到了這一點。

The other thing I mentioned this morning also was the auto and entertainment sectors have rebounded nicely, entertainment clearly and auto is starting to rebound following the strikes in the Fourth Quarter.

我今天早上提到的另一件事也是汽車和娛樂業反彈良好，娛樂業明顯，汽車業在第四季度的罷工之後開始反彈。

That's very helpful. And then just for my follow-up, question. As you think about international, I noticed that in your schedules, you're elongating the season with maybe just January and February in international being seasonally lower. Are you seeing travel move into those months as well so that you would extend or add especially to your coastal hubs more international service going east.

這非常有幫助。然後是我的後續問題。當你考慮國際比賽時，我注意到在你的日程安排中，你延長了賽季，可能只有一月和二月的國際比賽季節性較低。您是否也看到旅行也進入了這幾個月，以便您可以特別向您的沿海樞紐延伸或增加更多向東的國際服務。

Absolutely. I think we've disclosed this previously, is that we've seen the seasons elongate for leisure travel to Europe and really March through October now is pretty strong. Of course, the shoulder is still not as strong as the peak summer. But in response to that, and again, this is part of our optimization of how we fly is tailoring our capacity to when demand actually exists.

絕對地。我想我們之前已經透露過這一點，我們已經看到歐洲休閒旅遊的季節延長了，而且現在三月到十月的旅遊旺季非常強勁。當然，肩膀還是沒有盛夏那般堅韌。但為了回應這一點，這是我們優化飛行方式的一部分，即根據實際需求調整我們的運能。

Your next question is coming from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑米貝克。

Yes, Glen, on the pending inflection in domestic RASM, I appreciate we're seeing capacity plans tighten up across the industry. My question is whether you're seeing any revisions in how the growth your airlines are behaving outside of nearly cutting capacity. Anything else interesting we should be focused on? Or is it simply a supply exercise that's driving the improvement?

是的，格倫，關於國內 RASM 即將發生的變化，我很高興看到整個行業的產能計劃收緊。我的問題是，除了幾乎削減運力之外，您是否看到航空公司的成長表現有任何調整。還有什麼我們應該關注的有趣的事情嗎？或者這只是推動改善的供應活動？

Well, I think, Jamie, we've got a couple of contributors to it. One is what Ed just mentioned, the improving conditions in the corporate environment. And it's been a slow and steady rebuild since the end of the pandemic, but we are at post-pandemic highs, somewhere right around 90% restored to pre-pandemic levels as we head into this year. So that, I think, is an exciting backdrop for a domestic turnaround. Of course, we have some of the rationalization of capacity, but we also have continued improvements in segmentation and pricing. I can't talk to our competitors.

嗯，我想，傑米，我們有幾個貢獻者。一是Ed剛才提到的，企業環境的改善。自大流行結束以來，重建工作一直在緩慢而穩定地進行，但我們正處於大流行後的高點，進入今年時，大約 90% 恢復到大流行前的水平。因此，我認為，這是國內經濟好轉的一個令人興奮的背景。當然，我們在產能方面有一些合理化，但我們在細分和定價方面也有持續改善。我無法與我們的競爭對手交談。

I just know how we are working now and 20 years ago, we were only worried about the lowest fares in the market. And now we're worried about the entire ladder and the relativity within those ladders and trying to get people to experience the higher quality products. And I think that's really led to our ability to continue to segment the customers in a more enlightened way moving forward. And that's going to be one of the key drivers as we head through this year.

我只知道我們現在是如何運作的，20年前，我們只擔心市場上的最低票價。現在我們擔心整個階梯以及這些階梯內的相關性，並試圖讓人們體驗更高品質的產品。我認為這確實使我們能夠繼續以更開明的方式細分客戶。這將成為我們今年的關鍵驅動因素之一。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then a second question for Ed. During your interview with Phil this morning, you mentioned you're still holding out hope for the $7 earnings outcome this year. If we fast forward to a year from today, give or take, and that indeed has been the outcome. What do you think the primary driver will have been? I guess better way to ask is, do you think there is upside based on what Delta can control or do you think it will simply be exogenous factors, like, hey, fuel cooperated or, I don't know, maybe the consumer leaned even further into premium, that sort of thing.

好的。我很感激。然後是艾德的第二個問題。今天早上接受 Phil 採訪時，您提到您仍然對今年 7 美元的盈利結果抱有希望。如果我們從今天快轉一年，無論給予或接受，結果確實如此。您認為主要驅動因素是什麼？我想更好的提問方式是，你認為達美航空可以控制的因素是否有上升空間，或者你認為這只是外生因素，比如，嘿，燃料合作，或者，我不知道，也許消費者甚至傾向於進一步進入溢價之類的事情。

Sure. Thanks, Jamie. I get the question. I think the level of volatility that we see is what causes us to be a bit cautious and prudent in giving that $6 to $7 EPS guide in 2024. We've been signaling that a bit for the last 6 months, and that's where we sit today. I have great confidence in us hitting that guide, which is what I think the Street wants to know where our confidence level is. There are a bunch of macros that we look at into the year, which we'll have to see how they play out.

當然。謝謝，傑米。我明白了這個問題。我認為，我們所看到的波動程度導致我們在給出2024 年每股收益6 至7 美元的指導時顯得有些謹慎和謹慎。在過去6 個月裡，我們一直在發出這樣的信號，這就是我們的立場今天。我對我們達到該指南充滿信心，我認為華爾街想知道我們的信心水平在哪裡。今年我們會研究很多宏觀因素，我們必須看看它們的效果如何。

Clearly, the geopolitical front continues to be quite testy, including the fact that this is a political election season, not just in the U.S. but around the world. Energy prices, we saw this morning just how volatile energy prices are. And to me, the supply chain, both the cost and the constraints that we see in this industry continue unabated. We're not making nearly the progress on the supply chain improvements, if anything. Every news we get seems to be a bit worse, not better. So that constrains growth and increased cost.

顯然，地緣政治戰線仍然相當不穩定，包括這是一個政治選舉季節，不僅在美國，而且在世界各地。能源價格，今天早上我們看到能源價格波動有多大。對我來說，供應鏈、我們在這個行業看到的成本和限制仍然有增無減。如果有的話，我們在供應鏈改進方面幾乎沒有任何進展。我們收到的每條訊息似乎都變得更糟，而不是更好。因此，這限制了成長並增加了成本。

That all said, my internal stretch for myself and our team is to still get to that $7 number this year. I think we have a possibility to get there. But I also think that the macro weighs on that assessment, and I think to be prudent, we should set expectations maybe a little bit lower and hope to overchieve. Just by the way we did in 2023. We gave a $5 to $6 guide and came in on the top end. And I'd like to see a year from now that we're reporting that same type of result.

話雖如此，我對自己和我們團隊的內部努力是今年仍能達到 7 美元的數字。我認為我們有可能實現這一目標。但我也認為宏觀因素會影響這個評估，而且我認為，為了謹慎起見，我們應該將預期設定得稍微低一些，並希望能夠取得超額成績。就像我們在 2023 年所做的那樣。我們提供了 5 至 6 美元的指南，並獲得了最高的排名。我希望看到一年後我們能夠報告同樣類型的結果。

Your next question is coming from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

Just on the regions in general. You obviously sound more constructive, domestically, but I think you mentioned that you still see a lot -- a fair bit of upside in terms of international. If you could just level set on your overall like regional expectations in '24, I think that would be helpful.

就一般地區而言。在國內，你顯然聽起來更有建設性，但我認為你提到你仍然看到很多——國際方面有相當多的上行空間。如果你能像 24 年的地區期望那樣設定總體水平，我認為這會有所幫助。

Well, I think we're expecting domestic to continue to improve, the comps get easier as we move through the year. So we should see some nice momentum there. We had a fantastic year in the Transatlantic. We're hoping to beat that, but there's a really high bar as we move through the year. What we have on the books today is really pretty exciting for the month of April, where we have about 40% of our Transatlantic bookings in place. We have unit revenue sitting at high single digits up, which I think most people wouldn't expect.

嗯，我認為我們預計國內會繼續改善，隨著今年的進展，比賽會變得更容易。所以我們應該會看到一些好的勢頭。我們在跨大西洋度過了美好的一年。我們希望能夠超越這個目標，但隨著我們進入這一年，我們面臨著一個非常高的門檻。今天我們的預訂量對於 4 月來說確實非常令人興奮，我們大約 40% 的跨大西洋預訂已到位。我們的單位收入處於高個位數，我認為大多數人不會想到這一點。

Of course, we have a lot of booking to go there, but the early returns for spring and summer are very favorable as we sit today. Pacific where we have an incredible amount of capacity, it's being absorbed nicely and we expect that to inflect into a positive territory as those growth rates come down, we move through the year. And last but not least, Latin -- our ambitious build of South America with our partners, LATAM, is paying very strong dividends. We're improving our profitability, albeit at lower unit revenue.

當然，我們有很多預約去那裡，但正如我們今天所坐的那樣，春季和夏季的提前返回非常有利。在太平洋地區，我們擁有令人難以置信的產能，它被很好地吸收，我們預計隨著成長率的下降，這種產能將進入一個積極的領域，我們將度過這一年。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，拉丁語——我們與合作夥伴 LATAM 雄心勃勃地建造南美洲，正在帶來非常豐厚的紅利。儘管單位收入較低，但我們正在提高獲利能力。

So I think we're very excited about where South America sits and the beaches, this winter seem a little oversaturated that will rationalize itself out as we move through the year.

因此，我認為我們對南美洲的地理位置和海灘感到非常興奮，今年冬天似乎有點過度飽和，隨著我們一年的推移，這種情況會自行合理化。

Appreciate that. And then, Dan, 2024 costs. I was hoping if you could provide some thoughts just on the shape of the cost trajectory. It seems like a lot of it just has to do with timing of maintenance and really, really that type of stuff. Just any color -- additional color there could be helpful.

感謝。然後，丹，2024 年的成本。我希望您能就成本軌蹟的形狀提供一些想法。看起來很多都跟維護時間以及真的、真的這類東西有關。任何顏色都可以——額外的顏色可能會有所幫助。

Yes. I said maintenance was up $350 million for the year with a focus on the first part of the year. The other piece of it is, when you think about efficiencies, efficiencies just build as you progress through the year. One example is we're down on -- we're fully staffed. The one place we're hiring is pilot. That will be down 50% -- over 50% from last year. But again, front half centric with training associated with it as you get ready for the summer. And that really normalizes the historical levels in the back half of the year. So just a good steady drumbeat of efficiencies as we pace through the year.

是的。我說今年維護費用增加了 3.5 億美元，重點是今年上半年。另一方面，當你考慮效率時，效率只會隨著你在這一年的進步而提高。一個例子是我們的人員配備齊全。我們正在招募的一個職位是飛行員。這將比去年​​下降 50%——超過 50%。但同樣，當你為夏天做好準備時，前半場以與之相關的訓練為中心。這確實使今年下半年的歷史水準正常化。因此，隨著我們這一年的步伐，效率會不斷提高。

Your next question is coming from Stephen Trent from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的史蒂芬‧特倫特。

This might be for Ed or Glen, but you addressed it a little bit in an earlier response, but how do you think the supply chain stuff goes. First, we have the GTF engine, now the MAX 9 door plug. Do you think we've kind of reached the bottom? Or are you concerned there could be more to come 6 to 12 months from now?

這可能是針對艾德或格倫的，但您在先前的回覆中對此進行了一些討論，但您認為供應鏈的情況如何。首先，我們有 GTF 發動機，現在是 MAX 9 門塞。你認為我們已經觸底了嗎？或者您是否擔心 6 到 12 個月後還會出現更多情況？

Thanks, Stephen. This is Ed. I hope there's no more surprises, but I'd be lying to you, if I thought that's the case. I mean I think we're continuing to work through the -- in this post-pandemic world, the implications of the supply chain issues that we saw.

謝謝，史蒂芬。這是艾德。我希望不會再有什麼意外，但如果我這麼認為的話，那我就是在騙你。我的意思是，我認為我們正在繼續努力解決我們所看到的在這個大流行後世界中供應鏈問題的影響。

Although, the MAX 9 issue is a one-off, separate issue. I'm not referring to that. I am referring principally to the engine side of the business. And there's a lot of work on Pratt. We have a lot of reliance on Pratt and their challenges that they're facing have been well-chronicled. One of the things that we see on the engine side is as a lot of the incremental resources that our engine providers and suppliers have put their resources against, it also strips away resources from the maintenance work on their existing business with us.

儘管如此，MAX 9 問題是一個一次性的、單獨的問題。我指的不是這個。我主要指的是業務的引擎方面。普拉特還有很多工作要做。我們非常依賴普拉特，他們所面臨的挑戰已被詳細記錄。我們在引擎方面看到的一件事是，我們的引擎提供者和供應商投入了大量的增量資源，這也剝奪了他們與我們現有業務的維護工作的資源。

So we're working through in an efficient manner with Pratt they were in this week and we spent a lot of time with them. Rolls and GE, everybody in the engine world has challenges, not just on the original build, but more importantly, on the parts and the repair side of the business. And a lot of it's an experience factor level, all the suppliers in our industry lost a tremendous amount of experience due to the pandemic, and it's taking time to get that back to get the term times down to where they need to be and we have higher turn times that not only delays the entry into service, it also causes cost to go up.

因此，我們正在以高效的方式與 Pratt 合作，他們本週在場，我們花了很多時間與他們在一起。勞斯萊斯和通用電氣，引擎領域的每個人都面臨挑戰，不僅僅是在原始構造上，更重要的是在零件和業務維修方面。其中很大一部分是經驗因素，我們行業的所有供應商都因疫情而損失了大量經驗，需要時間才能恢復到所需的期限，我們已經更長的周轉時間不僅會延遲投入使用，還會導致成本上升。

All right. I appreciate that, Ed. And as my follow-up, I appreciate as well what you mentioned on the Latin market doing well. Any high-level color with respect to sort of deep LATAM versus short-haul LATAM? I mean, I presume a lot of the uplift you're seeing is from the JBA spooling up, but just wanted to make sure I understood that correctly.

好的。我很感激，艾德。作為我的後續行動，我也很欣賞你提到的拉丁市場的良好表現。關於深 LATAM 和短途 LATAM 有什麼高等級的顏色嗎？我的意思是，我認為您看到的許多提升都是來自 JBA 的推動，但只是想確保我理解正確。

Yes. I think you described it perfectly. There's a little pressure on the short-haul Latin, particularly on the resorts, where a lot of capacity was added by the industry year-over-year. But we're having really incredible performance into deep South America as we continue our coordination of launching the JV with LATAM, and we're very excited about the short-term and the long-term prospects there.

是的。我認為你描述得很完美。拉丁短程航線面臨一些壓力，尤其是度假村，該行業逐年增加了大量運力。但隨著我們繼續與 LATAM 協調成立合資企業，我們在南美洲深處取得了令人難以置信的業績，我們對那裡的短期和長期前景感到非常興奮。

Your next question is coming from David Vernon from Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的大衛‧弗農。

So Dan, as you think about what happened in 2023 as far as kind of the cost creep that led us to a little bit of a higher cost position than maybe you would have thought in the beginning of the year. Can you give us a kind of run down around kind of what you missed in 2023 and then with that as kind of a backdrop, talk to some of the sources of risk that you might see to that low single-digit outlook for CASM ex in 2024?

Dan，當你思考 2023 年發生的事情時，成本攀升導致我們的成本位置比你年初想像的要高一些。您能否為我們介紹一下您在 2023 年錯過的情況，然後以此為背景，談談您可能會看到 CASM ex 的低個位數前景的一些風險來源。2024 年？

Yes, predominantly, yes, David, certainly. 2 drivers. First, we flew less capacity and kept the cost in to invest back into the business. That was one. And the second piece was what we talked about a lot in the second half of the year was the investment in maintenance and the cost associated with maintenance. And those were really -- when you look at where we were from what we got it to where we ended up just over plus 2, those were the single 2 biggest drivers associated with that.

是的，主要是，是的，大衛，當然。 2名司機。首先，我們減少了運力，並保留了成本以重新投資於業務。那是一個。第二個問題是我們下半年常談論的問題是維護投資以及與維護相關的成本。這些確實是——當你看看我們從我們得到的結果到我們最終的結果剛剛超過+2時，這些是與此相關的兩個最大的驅動因素。

When you think about that as we go into New Year [4] here, a lot different backdrop as we're in a more normalized growth environment. When you're thinking and planning and the teams are executing to 3% to 5% growth versus 17% to 20% growth, the focus, really less on this training and hiring and the restoration of the airline, and our operating teams are focused on the operational performance and fine-tuning that. And as you do that, that sets the stage to drive the efficiency and things that -- actions that we took in -- initially were paying off.

當你想到這一點時，當我們進入新年[4]時，我們處於一個更正常化的成長環境中，背景有很大不同。當你思考和規劃並且團隊正在執行 3% 到 5% 的增長而不是 17% 到 20% 的增長時，重點實際上不是培訓和招聘以及航空公司的恢復，而是我們的運營團隊專注於關於運營績效並對其進行微調。當你這樣做時，就為提高效率和事情（我們採取的行動）最初獲得回報奠定了基礎。

If you look at the maintenance doing a lot of work and there's a lot to still go, but the fourth quarter performance, aircraft out of service down 30%; maintenance cancels down over 80%. So that those actions that they're taking around proactive reliability, getting the touch time on the aircraft [paying dividends], but that's really what allows us when you're in that normalized environment, you can really stay after that consistently day in and day out. That sets the stage for the execution around efficiency.

如果你看看維修工作做了很多工作，還有很多工作要做，但第四季的表現，停飛的飛機下降了 30%；維護取消量減少了 80% 以上。因此，他們圍繞著主動可靠性採取的這些行動，獲得了飛機上的接觸時間[帶來了紅利]，但這確實是讓我們在正常化的環境中時，可以真正堅持下去的原因。外出一天。這為圍繞效率的執行奠定了基礎。

David, if I could jump in here. It's hard to overstate just how hard it was to bring the full business back up again over the last 2.5 years. And the intensity of that has been phenomenal, and our team has done a great job. It has taken every fiber of our being and hiring and resource we have to try to get ahead of it. We're there now, okay? And you see the results in the fourth quarter, they were remarkable, the best fourth quarter operational results. I think this company has ever posted. And that is, I think, the big opportunity as we enter the year.

大衛，如果我能跳到這裡就好了。在過去的 2.5 年裡，讓整個業務重新復甦是多麼困難，怎麼形容都不為過。這種強度是驚人的，我們的團隊做得很好。它耗盡了我們的每一根神經，我們必須努力超越它，招募和資源。我們現在就到了，好嗎？你會看到第四季度的業績，它們非常出色，是第四季度最好的營運業績。我想這家公司曾經發過貼文。我認為，這是我們進入這一年的巨大機會。

I don't know that we know yet just how much we have available to us as we start to return to a normalized environment and start tweaking those efficiencies. I think it's going to be significant. And it's kind of hard to forecast because this team has been, for the last 2-plus years in a very different part of the build. But I'm confident we're going to see some great, great opportunities. And that's to Jamie's earlier question, why some of my internal expectations of hoping that we can get to that $7 above EPS number. I'm willing to put that number on paper quite yet, but, yes, I think the opportunity is there.

我不知道當我們開始返回正常化環境並開始調整這些效率時，我們是否知道我們有多少可用的資源。我認為這將是意義重大的。這有點難以預測，因為在過去兩年多的時間裡，這個團隊一直處於構建的一個非常不同的部分。但我相信我們會看到一些非常非常好的機會。這就是 Jamie 之前提出的問題，為什麼我的一些內部期望是希望我們能夠實現每股收益高出 7 美元的目標。我還願意把這個數字寫在紙上，但是，是的，我認為機會就在那裡。

Just to maybe kind of follow up on that point a little bit. If you think about the optimization efficiency gains that are ahead of you, I appreciate that it's hard to quantify at all, but can you give us a sense for what the driver of some of these things are kind of big picture-wise, is it about utilization of aircraft? Is it about getting the staffing optimized? Or is it more about just working some of the friction costs in the business out and sort of continuously improving and chasing down a bunch of little dogs and cats across the business. I'm just trying to get a sense for kind of what do we look at here? Are we looking at a large set of projects? Or are there 1 or 2 things that are going to be super pivotal around the optimization side of this?

只是為了對這一點進行一些跟進。如果你考慮一下你面前的最佳化效率增益，我知道它根本很難量化，但是你能否讓我們了解其中一些事情的驅動因素是什麼，是嗎？關於飛機的使用？是為了優化人員配置嗎？或者更多的只是解決業務中的一些摩擦成本，並在整個業務中不斷改進和追趕一群小狗和小貓。我只是想了解一下我們在這裡看到的是什麼？我們正在考慮大量項目嗎？或者是否有 1 或 2 件事對於優化方面非常關鍵？

David, I think it's all of the above. And it's not just what you mentioned on the cost side. It's also on the revenue side. Consumer behaviors have changed a lot. And to this point, we've been using somewhat older models to predict behavioral patterns. And we now have actually a good baseline over the last 1.5 years of what -- how consumers are purchasing, what they're purchasing, when they want to travel which Glen and his team will use to drive better network and revenue outcomes for our business. It's in the cost line.

大衛，我想以上都是。這不僅僅是你提到的成本方面的問題。這也是在收入方面。消費者行為發生了很大變化。到目前為止，我們一直在使用較舊的模型來預測行為模式。現在，我們實際上已經在過去1.5 年裡建立了一個良好的基線——消費者如何購買、購買什麼、何時想要旅行，格倫和他的團隊將利用這些基準為我們的業務帶來更好的網絡和收入成果。是在成本線之內的。

The fact that we have 10% more employees today than we had at this point pre-pandemic, essentially driving the same level of operations, a tremendous amount of opportunity to get efficient. But when the operators know what they can count on and they've got the arms around the full operation.

事實上，我們今天的員工比大流行前多了 10%，基本上推動了相同水準的運營，這是提高效率的巨大機會。但是，當操作員知道他們可以信賴什麼並且他們可以全力支持整個操作時。

I think you're going to see the cash register start to ring with cost and savings efficiency. So I know it's a bet on -- that come a little bit, but I'm optimistic we'll get there. But it's really hard to quantify at the same time.

我想你會看到收銀機開始響起成本和節省效率的聲音。所以我知道這是一個賭注，但我很樂觀我們會實現這一點。但同時確實很難量化。

Your next question is coming from Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

你們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

I know your commentary on demand sounds pretty good, but can you unpack a little bit more detail on what you're seeing in the forward booking curve through spring break and maybe even the activity through like the Paris Olympics over the summer, kind of what kind of forward indicator do you have that people might be traveling more?

我知道您的點播評論聽起來不錯，但是您能否詳細介紹一下您在春假期間的遠期預訂曲線中看到的情況，甚至可能是夏季巴黎奧運會等活動，例如您是否有某種前瞻性指標表明人們可能會更多地旅行？

Well, I think I mentioned it as a response to one of the other questions, but we have pretty good visibility on the early bookings for the summer transatlantic season. And we have a higher book load factor as well as higher yields. So those are the 2 things we watch for, and both are indicating quite positive for the transatlantic.

嗯，我想我提到它是為了回答其他問題之一，但我們對夏季跨大西洋季節的早期預訂有很好的了解。我們的圖書負載率更高，收益率也更高。因此，這是我們關注的兩件事，這兩件事都表明對跨大西洋航線來說非常積極。

The U.S. has, of course, closer in booking curve. But as far as we can see out through a spring break, things look great for the U.S. And as I mentioned earlier, some of the close-end beach resorts have a little bit too much industry capacity this year that will probably get rationalized out over time, but still won't be very profitable as we move through the peak winter season.

當然，美國的預訂曲線更接近。但就我們在春假期間看到的情況來看，美國的情況看起來不錯。正如我之前提到的，一些封閉式海灘度假村今年的行業產能有點過多，可能會在時間，但隨著我們進入冬季高峰期，利潤仍不會很高。

And then as Pacific [rush], as we continue to lap the buildup of our Pacific as we move through the year, we expect those unit revenues to accelerate demand, particularly strong to the Incheon hub as well as to Japan in the spring season. So very exciting as we look forward. I hope we can beat -- outdo our plan.

然後，隨著太平洋地區的[熱潮]，隨著我們在這一年中繼續擴大太平洋地區的建設，我們預計這些單位收入將加速需求，尤其是春季仁川樞紐和日本的需求強勁。我們非常期待。我希望我們能夠超越我們的計劃。

Got it. And apologies if I missed this earlier, but did you -- I mean, some of your peers are having issues with the potential extended grounding of some aircraft for inspections -- do you see any kind of spillover benefit for that in the short term? And kind of -- is any of that in your 1Q guidance?

知道了。如果我之前錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但是您是否——我的意思是，您的一些同行對某些飛機可能延長停飛進行檢查的問題存在疑問——您認為短期內會產生任何溢出效益嗎？您的第一季指導中有這些內容嗎？

Yes. We see minimal improvements in what we have seen is mostly in Seattle, where they've had to cancel a significant portion of their schedule out of Seattle. But we'll see how long that stays out. But right now, I wouldn't say it's a significant number of that grander scheme of things. It's significant for Seattle but not significant for our whole network.

是的。我們看到的改善很小，主要是在西雅圖，他們不得不取消西雅圖以外的大部分行程。但我們會看看它會持續多久。但現在，我不會說這是更宏偉的計劃中的很大一部分。這對西雅圖來說很重要，但對我們整個網路來說並不重要。

Your next question is coming from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Maybe just on the cadence of the non-op savings and the component drivers of that? Is it spread pretty evenly throughout the year? Or is it more kind of second half weighted?

也許只是基於非操作節省的節奏及其組件驅動因素？全年分佈是否相當均勻？還是下半場的權重比較大？

The driver is $75 million to $100 million, really driven by interest expense. And as we've accelerated the debt reduction action, that drives the benefit. We expect pension to be flat on a year-over-year basis. The team did a great job. The pension delivered at or slightly above its targeted return. So no headwind associated with that. You get some -- a little bit around some of the equity earnings of our partners, but we expect to be pretty consistent throughout the year due to the interest reduction, savings coming through as you progress through the year.

驅動因素為 7500 萬至 1 億美元，實際上是由利息支出驅動的。隨著我們加快債務削減行動，這會帶來好處。我們預計退休金將同比持平。團隊做得很好。退休金的交付額等於或略高於其目標回報。所以沒有與此相關的阻力。你會得到一些東西——大約是我們合作夥伴的一些股權收益，但由於利息減少，隨著你在這一年中取得進展，我們預計全年將保持相當一致的收益。

And then just a follow-up for Glen. You've done a nice job taking some active steps to -- on the capacity sequentially 4Q to 1Q. But could you just speak to seasonality and maybe by entity where is seasonality a lot different than it used to be, where is it kind of normalized. So any sort of key trends you'd highlight in change in the underlying seasonal patterns here into the first quarter?

然後是格倫的後續行動。您在第四季度到第一季的容量方面採取了一些積極的措施，做得很好。但你能談談季節性嗎？也許按實體來說，季節性與以前有很大不同，它在哪裡標準化了。那麼，您想強調第一季基本季節性模式變化的任何關鍵趨勢嗎？

Yes. I think we're at our new norm and our new norm is different than '19, but what I see mainly is an extension of the international seasons. So we mentioned that in an earlier question that -- it used to be the summer peak was just June, July, August. And now I think we're moving into April through March all the way through October is a very strong season, particularly for Southern Europe, Northern Europe starts a little bit later.

是的。我認為我們正處於新常態，我們的新常態與 19 年不同，但我主要看到的是國際賽季的延長。所以我們在先前的問題中提到──過去夏季高峰只是六月、七月、八月。現在我認為我們正在進入四月到三月一直到十月是一個非常強勁的季節，特別是對於南歐來說，北歐開始得晚一些。

And then the other thing I just mentioned, I mentioned in an earlier call as well is that, the beach, the Mexican and the Caribbean beaches just seem to have a little bit too much capacity this year and we'll work through that as we go through the year. But it's -- if you look, those are up 20%, 30% across the board and having a little trouble keeping up with that, the demand keeping up with that kind of capacity increase.

然後我剛才提到的另一件事，我在之前的電話會議中也提到過，海灘、墨西哥和加勒比海灘今年的容量似乎有點太多，我們將解決這個問題，因為我們走過這一年。但如果你仔細觀察，你會發現這些成長了 20%、30%，但要跟上這一成長、需求跟上這種產能成長卻有點困難。

And I imagine it is people plan next year that we'll trim on the margin, goes back down again or let that demand catch up. So generally, I think we're in a good spot here with supply and demand. As far as the eye can see. we're positive in all the future months and almost all the future -- in almost every entity with the exception of LAT.

我想人們計劃明年我們將削減利潤，再次下降或讓需求趕上。總的來說，我認為我們的供需狀況良好。一望無際。我們對未來幾個月和幾乎所有未來都持樂觀態度——除了 LAT 之外，幾乎所有實體都如此。

Your next question is coming from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

你們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登‧奧格倫斯基。

I guess, Ed or Dan, I mean, looking back from your prior 2021 targets, you guys are guiding at the top end here to effectively reach that. And I think not a lot of people gave you credit. So that's the context of my question.

我想，Ed 或 Dan，我的意思是，回顧你們之前的 2021 年目標，你們正在為有效實現這一目標而在高端進行指導。我認為沒有多少人相信你。這就是我問題的背景。

But that said, valuation in your stock is still pretty low. I think investors are just concerned that we've seen peak airline profitability and your guidance would effectively say about flat profitability this year in '24 versus '23. So maybe coming back to some of these prior questions, what is in your control that can get profitability higher, maybe looking beyond this year that can give investors comfort that this business should be earning mid-teens?

但話雖如此，你的股票估值仍然很低。我認為投資者只是擔心我們已經看到了航空公司盈利能力的峰值，而您的指導實際上會說明今年 24 年與 23 年盈利能力持平。因此，也許回到之前的一些問題，您可以控制哪些因素可以提高盈利能力，也許展望今年之後，可以讓投資者放心，該企業的盈利應該在十幾歲左右？

Thanks, Brandon. And you're right. When you think about when we set that target, it was in December of '21. I'll never forget we were at the exchange. I believe you were there. And Omicron was just being announced as the newest variant. So the level of knowledge that we had to the future and where this thing was going, it was candidly, kind of may be a bit crazy for us to put out a 3-year plan, but I thought it was really important and instructive for us as well as our investors to let them see how we're thinking about the progress.

謝謝，布蘭登。你是對的。當你想想我們設定這個目標的時候，那是在 2021 年 12 月。我永遠不會忘記我們在交易所。我相信你當時就在那裡。 Omicron 剛剛被宣佈為最新版本。因此，坦白說，我們對未來以及這件事的發展方向的了解程度，對於我們來說制定一個 3 年計劃可能有點瘋狂，但我認為這對我們來說非常重要且具有啟發性。我們以及我們的投資者，讓他們了解我們如何考慮進展。

And the great news is through the first 2 years, we are at, if not ahead of plan along that way. And I think if I was to go back and say what has changed that maybe has given me a little bit of pause for $7, not longer term, but just in the short term. I think it's the higher cost of labor, certainly was not known back then, the higher inflation rates were not known back then. And most importantly, the supply chain constraints.

好消息是，在最初的兩年裡，我們已經達到了（如果不是提前於）計畫。我想，如果我回去說一下發生了什麼變化，這可能會讓我對 7 美元有一點猶豫，不是長期的，而是短期的。我認為這是更高的勞動成本，當時當然不為人所知，更高的通貨膨脹率當時也不為人所知。最重要的是，供應鏈的限制。

The full extent we're not -- clearly not known -- have no knowledge of the challenges we face. So when you think about all the macros we encountered, I think we've done a very good job of controlling those things that we can control. And as you've heard from several of the questions, I still internally am targeting us to get to that $7 number this year. And I think we can. I really do. But I think it's also prudent that we give a nod to some of those macros that we're facing. I think the optimization opportunities, as I mentioned, are significant, and they run across every single part of this business.

我們對所面臨的挑戰一無所知——顯然我們還不知道。因此，當您考慮我們遇到的所有巨集時，我認為我們在控制那些我們可以控制的事情方面做得非常好。正如您從幾個問題中聽到的那樣，我的內部目標仍然是今年達到 7 美元的目標。我認為我們可以。我真的這麼做。但我認為，我們對我們面臨的一些宏表示認可也是謹慎的做法。正如我所提到的，我認為優化機會非常重要，並且它們貫穿該業務的每個部分。

And all of our leaders are working hard to ensure that we're delivering an excellent quality product, which unleashes that optimization benefits. I think the work that we're doing on the balance sheet with all the debt reduction is derisking and taking that down is important. We're on track with our free cash flow guidance, $3 billion to $4 billion this year. And we're still looking at a $10 billion target between ['23 and '25] for free cash. So I think there's -- you're right, there's a lot of noise that "we're lowering guidance." I don't really look at it that way. I think it's giving nod to some of the macro realities. And I wanted to give you a prudent estimate to what we are confident we can deliver this year with a nod towards -- there's some real upside here.

我們所有的領導者都在努力確保我們提供優質的產品，從而釋放優化的好處。我認為我們在資產負債表上所做的所有債務削減工作都在降低風險，因此降低風險非常重要。我們今年的自由現金流指引目標為 30 億至 40 億美元，正步上正軌。我們仍在尋找 ['23 至 '25] 之間 100 億美元的自由現金目標。所以我認為，你是對的，有很多聲音說「我們正在降低指導」。我真的不這麼看。我認為它承認了一些宏觀現實。我想對我們今年能夠實現的目標進行謹慎的估計，並表示肯定——這裡有一些真正的好處。

And then, Dan, the maintenance issues have been present now for probably over a year, if not longer. I guess what are you doing longer-term planning to maybe mitigate that and is there any favorable offset longer term here in your MRO business?

然後，丹，維護問題可能已經存在一年多了，甚至更長。我想您正在做哪些長期計劃來緩解這種情況？您的 MRO 業務是否有任何有利的長期抵消？

The one is we continue as we get into a period here where we're more normalized in growth. It's allowing us to extend our planning horizon, where we're able to look out on a rolling not only 12 but 18, 24, 36 months. And I think the more visibility and stability that we get from that allows us to better plan as it relates back into how we run our fleet and how we balance that capacity with cost. And I think that will continue to give us more certainty around that.

一是當我們進入一個成長更正常化的時期時，我們會繼續下去。它使我們能夠擴展規劃範圍，不僅可以滾動 12 個月，還可以滾動 18、24、36 個月。我認為，我們從中獲得的更多可見性和穩定性使我們能夠更好地進行計劃，因為它關係到我們如何運作我們的機隊以及我們如何平衡運力與成本。我認為這將繼續為我們帶來更多的確定性。

The other piece is just the heavy lift that our entire tech ops team has in working closely with the supply chain and with all our partners across that, getting clarity in regards to the things that they need to do, and we can do on their behalf as it relates to Delta in regards to continuing to improve the execution of that over time. And we've got to work closely with those partners to continue to improve that.

另一部分是我們整個技術營運團隊與供應鏈以及整個供應鏈的所有合作夥伴密切合作，明確他們需要做的事情以及我們可以代表他們做的事情因為它與達美航空有關，隨著時間的推移，不斷改進其執行力。我們必須與這些合作夥伴密切合作，繼續改進這一點。

And then to the last piece on MRO, yes, there will be an opportunity to continue to grow, I think, as we've talked about before, we're well positioned on all these platforms. The focus has been, and we'll be right here, making sure that we've got strong foundation on Delta and Delta's fleet, but we also do have an eye to continue to grow the MRO business, and you'll start to see that start this year, but really in earnest in the years 2 and 3 years out.

然後是關於 MRO 的最後一篇文章，是的，將會有繼續成長的機會，我認為，正如我們之前談到的，我們在所有這些平台上都處於有利地位。重點一直是，我們將在這裡，確保我們在達美航空和達美機隊方面擁有堅實的基礎，但我們也確實著眼於繼續發展 MRO 業務，您將開始看到從今年開始，但真正認真的工作是在第二年和第三年。

Your next question is coming from Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·迪多拉。

A question for Glen. I guess, I think you started ramping up your core hub growth in the middle of 2023. Is there any way you can quantify with what the benefits of this build out were to your kind of revenue performance over the back half? And what share of your capacity growth this year will be growth in these hubs?

問格倫一個問題。我想，我認為你們在 2023 年中期開始加快核心樞紐的成長。有什麼方法可以量化這種建設對你們下半年的收入表現的好處嗎？這些樞紐的成長將佔今年運力成長的比例有多大？

I think we've just alluded to, a majority of our growth will be in our core hubs or to partner hubs. So probably 75% to 80% of our growth will be in those locations. We feel that we accelerated the coastal gateway growth earlier in the process with our once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to become the leading carriers in markets like Los Angeles and Boston and those are paying huge dividends for us as we head into '24 with Boston, for example, leading the unit revenue ascension for this quarter.

我想我們剛剛提到，我們的大部分成長將來自我們的核心中心或合作夥伴中心。因此，我們 75% 到 80% 的成長可能將來自這些地區。我們認為，我們在此過程的早期加速了沿海門戶的增長，憑藉我們千載難逢的機會成為洛杉磯和波士頓等市場的領先承運人，當我們進入 24 世紀時，這些機會為我們帶來了巨大的紅利例如，波士頓在本季度的單位收入增長中處於領先地位。

So we're really, really pleased with the way it gets shaked out, and we still have some more rebuild to do in our core hubs. It will probably take us through this year and into next year given the lower growth rates that we have. But that's what we're working on for the next 18 to 24 months.

因此，我們對它的擺脫方式非常非常滿意，而且我們的核心樞紐還需要進行更多的重建工作。鑑於我們的成長率較低，它可能會帶我們度過今年並進入明年。但這就是我們未來 18 到 24 個月的工作重點。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just, Dan, in the $3 billion to $4 billion of free cash flow, are you assuming any sort of cash taxes this year? Or when do you expect to become a cash tax payer? I thought it was a number of years out, but just curious if there's any update there.

知道了。這很有幫助。那麼，丹，在 30 億至 40 億美元的自由現金流中，您今年是否會徵收任何形式的現金稅？或者您預計什麼時候成為現金納稅人？我以為已經過去了很多年了，但只是好奇是否有任何更新。

No, we don't expect cash taxes this year. And we'd expect that potentially cash tax payments starting in 2025 and beyond.

不，我們預計今年不會徵收現金稅。我們預計從 2025 年及以後開始可能會進行現金稅。

Matthew, we'll now go to our final analyst question before then going over to the media.

馬修，我們現在將討論最後的分析師問題，然後再轉向媒體。

Your next question is coming from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

Maybe a quick one for me. Just you talked about pilot hiring being down 50% year-over-year, and you heard similar comments from the industry. Just curious what that means for your kind of regional operation. And if there was much of a drag in 2023, either to cost or to revenue from that operation and what you kind of expect this year and next year?

也許對我來說是一個快速的。剛才您談到飛行員招募量年減 50%，您也聽到了業內類似的評論。只是好奇這對您的區域運營意味著什麼。如果 2023 年該業務的成本或收入受到很大拖累，您對今年和明年有何預期？

So thanks for that question. And I think that plays well into some of the other themes that we've talked about, what are the potential upsides to our plan that could get you towards the $7. We have planned for stability in the regionals after 2.5 years of really instability where we didn't know how many hours we had really 3 to 4 months ahead of time. And what we've seen is that there is a lot more stability. What we haven't accounted for is the full utilization of our fleet. So we still have 50 to 100 airplanes and less of utilization than we are -- than we have on the ground in our fleet. So should that lower hiring at the Mainline translate into more availability in the back half of the year, that would be potential upside to our P&L.

謝謝你提出這個問題。我認為這很好地契合了我們討論過的其他一些主題，即我們的計劃有哪些潛在優勢可以讓您達到 7 美元。在經歷了 2.5 年的真正不穩定之後，我們已經為地區穩定做好了計劃，我們不知道我們提前 3 到 4 個月到底有多少小時。我們看到的是穩定性提高了很多。我們沒有考慮到我們機隊的充分利用。因此，我們仍然有 50 到 100 架飛機，但利用率低於我們機隊中的地面飛機數量。因此，如果主線招募的減少轉化為今年下半年更多的可用性，這將是我們損益表的潛在上行空間。

All right. That will wrap up the analyst portion of the call. I'll now turn it over to Tim Mapes to start the media questions.

好的。這將結束電話會議的分析師部分。現在我將把它交給蒂姆·梅普斯來開始媒體提問。

Thank you, Julie. Matthew, if we could reiterate for the members of the media, the instructions with regard to accessing the call and follow-ups, please.

謝謝你，朱莉。馬修，請讓我們向媒體成員重申有關收聽電話會議和後續行動的說明。

At this time, we'll be conducting a Q&A session for media questions.

這次，我們將針對媒體問題進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question is coming from Ted Reed from Forbes.

你的第一個問題來自《富比士》的泰德·里德。

It's for Glen. I just wondered if the Delta passenger in 2024 looks different than the passenger in 2023. And I'm also asking whether the age of revenge travel is over and are we past revenge travel.

是給格倫的。我只是想知道 2024 年達美航空的乘客看起來與 2023 年的乘客是否有所不同。我也在問復仇旅行的時代是否已經結束，我們是否已經過去了復仇旅行。

Well, I mean, this is all an opinion, right, is that revenge travel, I think, has years to go, particularly in long-haul international. When you look at the aging of the demographics that people in their retirement years want to travel. And they were involved with the ability to travel for 3 years, and we weren't able to accommodate them all last year. I think that we continue the accommodation of that for the next several years, we still [that's the link that level sets that]. I think domestically, we've done that the revenge travel was early in the process, and we're kind of at our new equilibrium, and that gives us the opportunity to optimize as we move forward. And do they look different? They always looked different.

嗯，我的意思是，這只是一種觀點，對吧，我認為復仇旅行還有很長的路要走，特別是在長途國際旅行中。當你觀察人口老化時，人們在退休後想要旅行。他們參與旅行的能力已經3年了，去年我們沒能容納他們全部。我認為我們將在接下來的幾年裡繼續適應這一點，我們仍然[這就是級別設定的連結]。我認為在國內，我們已經在這個過程的早期完成了復仇旅行，我們已經達到了新的平衡，這給了我們在前進過程中優化的機會。它們看起來有什麼不同嗎？他們看起來總是不一樣。

As for destinations, are we more in a unique -- is it more unique transatlantic that they're looking at or more the traditional transatlantic or something else?

至於目的地，我們是更獨特——他們正在尋找更獨特的跨大西洋還是更傳統的跨大西洋還是其他什麼？

I think it's more the traditional. Italy, Spain, those are 2 of the -- Italy, Spain, Greece are such hotspots, Portugal is a hotspot. I think during the peak summer, we're really excited about the prospect of bringing SAS along with us and now having hubs in Copenhagen and Stockholm that will allow us to have even more destinations in Europe than we serve today.

我認為這更傳統。義大利、西班牙，這是其中的兩個——義大利、西班牙、希臘是這樣的熱點，葡萄牙是一個熱點。我認為在夏季高峰期，我們對將 SAS 納入我們的前景感到非常興奮，現在在哥本哈根和斯德哥爾摩擁有樞紐，這將使我們能夠在歐洲擁有比現在更多的目的地。

Your next question is coming from Kelly Yamanouchi from Atlanta Journal Constitution.

你們的下一個問題來自《亞特蘭大憲法雜誌》的凱莉·山之內。

Ed, you mentioned having 10% more employees today than pre-pandemic as essentially driving the same level of operations and the opportunity to get efficient. I was wondering if that means growing operations with the same number of employees or potentially cutting the staffing level?

Ed，您提到今天的員工比大流行前多了 10%，這基本上推動了相同水平的營運和提高效率的機會。我想知道這是否意味著以相同數量的員工擴大業務，或者可能削減人員配備水準？

Kelly, no, there's no plans just to cut staffing levels at all. This is about our people being able to garner more experience because a lot of the new employees that we've added over the last few years are adding to that 10% and continuing to be a bit more efficient in productivity and the staffing levels. But no, we have no intention to make any reductions in people.

凱利，不，根本沒有削減人員編制的計劃。這是為了我們的員工能夠獲得更多經驗，因為我們在過去幾年中增加的許多新員工都增加了這 10%，並且在生產力和人員配置水平方面繼續提高了效率。但不，我們無意減少人員。

Your next question is coming from Leslie Josephs from CNBC.

你的下一個問題來自 CNBC 的萊斯利·約瑟夫斯 (Leslie Josephs)。

Wondering if you were seeing any increased bookings since United and Alaska has had to ground their MAX 9s. And then separately, maybe this is a question more for Glenn. But do you think you're done with the measures that you had to take last year in terms of the SkyMiles program and lounges to sort of combat crowding since this year is going to be so busy. And if you have enough premium seats to offer the market, currently.

想知道自從美聯航和阿拉斯加航空不得不停飛 MAX 9 以來，您是否看到預訂量增加。然後單獨來說，也許這對格倫來說是一個更多的問題。但是，您認為您已經完成了去年在「飛凡哩程常客計畫」計畫和休息室方面必須採取的措施，以應對擁擠，因為今年將非常繁忙。如果您目前有足夠的高級席位可以提供給市場。

Well, I'll take the second question, first is we made some serious changes to our programs that were designed to really put the right people in the right category so that we could deliver industry-leading premium experiences. And as you know, while they were announced in the fall, most of them don't take into effect until 2025. And I think what we've estimated is that should -- we should be done with that those kinds of major changes to our programs. Of course, those programs are always changing. But I think the changes moving forward will be much more minimal. So I think that's behind us. We'll see how that plays out at the end of -- by the end of this year and into '25. And your other question was? Max?

好吧，我將回答第二個問題，首先是我們對我們的計劃進行了一些重大改變，這些改變旨在真正將合適的人放在正確的類別中，以便我們能夠提供行業領先的優質體驗。如你所知，雖然它們是在秋季宣布的，但其中大多數要到 2025 年才會生效。我認為我們的估計是，我們應該完成這些重大改變我們的計劃。當然，這些程序總是在變化。但我認為未來的變化將會小得多。所以我認為這已經過去了。我們將在今年年底和 25 年看到結果如何。你的另一個問題是？最大限度？

On bookings. Yes. Since the grounding.

關於預訂。是的。自接地以來。

We've seen a small uptick specifically in Seattle, but Seattle is a small portion of our entire system. So it's kind of minimal in the grander scheme of things, but it's relevant in Seattle.

我們特別在西雅圖看到了小幅上升，但西雅圖只是我們整個系統的一小部分。因此，從更宏偉的計劃來看，這只是最小的事情，但在西雅圖很重要。

Your next question is coming from Mary Schlangenstein from Bloomberg News.

您的下一個問題來自彭博新聞社的瑪麗·施蘭根斯坦。

Yes. My question was asked.

是的。我的問題被問到了。

Your next question is coming from Alison Sider from Wall Street Journal.

你們的下一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的艾莉森‧賽德。

I was wondering, do you still think Delta still has the same advantage over rivals just in terms of reliability in its operation? And is that something that you're kind of working on?

我想知道，您仍然認為達美航空在營運可靠性方面仍然比競爭對手具有相同的優勢嗎？這是你正在做的事情嗎？

Ali, this is Ed. The one thing that we've seen over the last couple of years, which has been great for our customers is that the overall reliability in the industry has improved. And carriers increasingly are competing over operational performance rather than other -- some other things in the past that people may have been focused against. And I think that's great. And I think it pushes us to be even better. And I think it's a great outcome for the industry as a whole. So yes, the competition is definitely more focused on reliability than ever before, and I still expect Delta to maintain its premium lead in that sector.

阿里，這是艾德。過去幾年我們看到的一件事對我們的客戶來說是件好事，那就是產業的整體可靠性得到了提升。營運商越來越多地在營運績效方面進行競爭，而不是其他方面——過去人們可能一直關注的其他一些事情。我認為這很棒。我認為這促使我們變得更好。我認為這對整個行業來說是一個很好的結果。所以，是的，競爭肯定比以往任何時候都更加重視可靠性，我仍然預期達美航空將在該領域保持領先地位。

And then if I could ask about sort of labor shortages. Are you concerned at all or starting to feel the impact of the shortage of maintenance workers. Is that something you expect to come to head this year?

然後我可否詢問勞動力短缺的問題。您是否擔心或開始感受到維修人員短缺的影響？您預計今年會出現這樣的情況嗎？

We are not experiencing any issues around labor shortages, maybe in very small isolated places. We still have some additional people we'd like to bring in. But we are at where we need to be. And for us, it's less about the shortages, it's more about the new people that we brought on, continuing to gain experience. And that's a big deal, particularly in the maintenance area.

我們沒有遇到任何有關勞動力短缺的問題，也許是在非常小的偏僻地方。我們仍然想引進一些額外的人。但我們已經達到了我們需要達到的水平。對我們來說，這不是短缺的問題，而是我們引進的新進員工不斷累積經驗的問題。這是一件大事，特別是在維修領域。

Thank you, Ali. Matthew, we have time for one final question, please.

謝謝你，阿里。馬修，我們有時間回答最後一個問題。

Your last question is coming from Robert Silk from Travel Weekly.

你的最後一個問題來自《旅遊周刊》的羅伯特·西爾克。

Glen, you mentioned that you all had gained corporate share this year. I'm wondering if you could elaborate on what caused that, you think, how you gained it? And there was any impact, some of it might have come from the removing of fares from the traditional GDS channel but other -- your main competitors?

格倫，你提到今年你們都獲得了公司股份。我想知道你是否可以詳細說明是什麼原因造成的，你認為，你是如何獲得它的？這會產生什麼影響，其中一些可能來自傳統 GDS 管道取消票價，但其他影響——您的主要競爭對手？

Yes. I think one of the issues were, we were very inventory constrained in 2022 as we were behind the industry in our rebuild. And in 2023, we caught up back to basically a pre-pandemic level of capacity. And those additional seats were enabled to more corporates to get on the aircraft. I'd say what's different about now versus pre-pandemic is that before the pandemic and before the segmentation of customers the differential between the yields on corporate and the yields on noncorporate high-end leisure were significant.

是的。我認為問題之一是，我們在 2022 年的庫存非常有限，因為我們的重建落後於產業。到了 2023 年，我們的產能基本上恢復到大流行前的水平。這些額外的座位讓更多的企業能夠登上飛機。我想說，現在與大流行前的不同之處在於，在大流行之前和客戶細分之前，企業和非企業高端休閒的收益率之間的差異很大。

And these days, those have closed. So now you have competition for the premium seats between those 2 categories that didn't exist pre-pandemic. And that's exciting for us as we manage them, but I think getting more seats available is one of the key priorities in the premium sector so that we can accommodate all the demand.

如今，這些都已經關閉了。因此，現在這兩個類別之間存在著對高級席位的競爭，而這在大流行之前並不存在。當我們管理它們時，這對我們來說是令人興奮的，但我認為獲得更多可用座位是高端領域的關鍵優先事項之一，以便我們可以滿足所有需求。

Okay. So what about seeing any sort of share shift based upon your strategy of leaving all your fares available in a traditional, matter of fact, GDS.

好的。那麼，根據您將所有票價保留在傳統的、事實上的 GDS 中的策略，看到任何形式的份額轉移又如何呢？

Yes. Clearly, we think that our strategy is more customer friendly, and I'm sure that's part of it, but we don't quantify it.

是的。顯然，我們認為我們的策略對客戶更加友好，我確信這是其中的一部分，但我們沒有量化它。

Matthew, that will wrap up the call. If you want to close it up.

馬修，電話就這樣結束了。如果你想關閉它。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation today.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您今天的參與。