達美航空 (DAL) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

達美航空公佈第二季獲利強勁,稅前收入達 20 億美元,營收創歷史新高。他們預計 9 月季度的稅前利潤為 15 億美元,並有望達到全年指引。該公司將其成功歸功於重組努力和強有力的領導。

達美航空專注於提高效率、管理費用和創造股東價值。他們對未來的成長和獲利能力持樂觀態度,計劃擴大優質服務並專注於客戶體驗。電話會議也涵蓋了產能成長、財務表現和產業挑戰等主題。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Delta Air Lines June quarter 2024 financial results conference call. My name is Matthew, and I'll be your coordinator. (Operator Instructions)

    大家早安,歡迎參加達美航空 2024 年 6 月季度財務業績電話會議。我叫馬修,我將擔任你們的協調員。 (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Julie Stewart, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁朱莉·史都華 (Julie Stewart)。請繼續。

  • Julie Stewart Stewart - Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development

    Julie Stewart Stewart - Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development

  • Thank you, Matthew, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for June quarter 2024 earnings call. Joining us today our CEO, Ed Bastian; our President, Glen Hauenstein; our CFO, Dan Janki. Ed will open the call with an overview of Delta's performance and strategy. Glen will provide an update on revenue environment and Dan will discuss costs in our balance sheet. After the prepared remarks we'll take analyst questions we ask that you please limit yourself for one question and the brief follow up, so that we can get as many as possible. And after the analyst Q&A, we will move to our media questions.

    謝謝馬修,大家早上好,謝謝您參加我們的 2024 年 6 月季度財報電話會議。今天加入我們的執行長 Ed Bastian;我們的總裁格倫·豪恩斯坦;我們的財務長 Dan Janki。 Ed 將首先概述達美航空的業績和策略。格倫將提供收入環境的最新情況,丹將討論我們資產負債表中的成本。在準備好的評論之後,我們將回答分析師問題,我們要求您限制自己提出一個問題並進行簡短的跟進,以便我們能夠得到盡可能多的問題。在分析師問答之後,我們將轉向媒體問題。

  • Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events. All forward-looking statements about risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that may cause such differences are described in Delta's SEC filing. We will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures and all of those exclude special items unless otherwise noted. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures on the Investor Relations page at ir.delta.com.

    今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述,代表我們對未來事件的信念或期望。所有有關風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。達美航空向 SEC 提交的文件中描述了可能導致此類差異的一些因素。我們還將討論非公認會計準則財務指標,除非另有說明,所有這些指標均不包括特殊項目。您可以在 ir.delta.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到非 GAAP 指標的調整表。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.

    然後,我會將電話轉給艾德。

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Julie, and good morning, everyone, we appreciate you joining us today. Earlier this morning, we reported our June quarter results posting pretax earnings of $2 billion or $2.36 per share on record quarterly revenue of 5.4% over last year. These results, our second highest quarterly earnings in our history. We achieved a 15% operating margin in generated $1.3 billion of free cash during the quarter, bringing our first half free cash flow to $2.7 billion.

    謝謝朱莉,大家早上好,我們感謝您今天加入我們。今天早些時候,我們公佈了 6 月季度業績,稅前收益為 20 億美元,即每股 2.36 美元,季度收入比去年同期增長 5.4%,創歷史新高。這些結果是我們歷史上第二高的季度收益。本季我們實現了 15% 的營業利潤率,產生了 13 億美元的自由現金,使上半年的自由現金流達到 27 億美元。

  • With strong cash generation, we continue to progress our balance sheet back towards investment-grade metrics and announced a 50% increase to our quarterly dividend. We delivered a return on invested capital of 13%, 5 points above our cost of capital and in the top half of the S&P 500.

    憑藉強勁的現金產生能力,我們繼續將資產負債表向投資等級指標邁進,並宣布將季度股息增加 50%。我們的投資資本報酬率為 13%,比資本成本高出 5 個百分點,位居標準普爾 500 指數前半。

  • Delta's leadership is increasingly being recognized, alongside some of the world's best companies. Just last month, Delta was ranked fourth in the Fortune 500 return on leadership by Fortune and Indigo, just behind NVIDIA and Microsoft. Through the year, our teams have delivered industry-leading operational performance in month and month out with Delta leading across all key metrics, including completion factor, on-time departures, and arrivals.

    達美航空的領導地位與世界上一些最優秀的公司一樣,越來越受到認可。就在上個月,《財星》雜誌和 Indigo 評選的《財星 500 強》排行榜中,達美航空排名第四,僅次於 NVIDIA 和微軟。在這一年裡,我們的團隊逐月實現了業界領先的營運績效,達美航空在所有關鍵指標上均處於領先地位,包括完成率、準時出發和抵達。

  • This performance builds on our long-standing position as the most reliable airline in the US. And I'd like to thank all 100,000 members of our team for their exceptional work, taking care of our customers each and every day. They are truly the best in the business.

    這一業績建立在我們作為美國最可靠航空公司的長期地位之上。我要感謝我們團隊所有 100,000 名成員的出色工作,他們每天都在照顧我們的客戶。他們確實是業界最優秀的。

  • Recognizing the extraordinary skill and care of our people, Delta was named the 2024 Global Airline of the Year by Air Transport World at the recent IATA annual meeting and for the sixth year in a row, The Points Guy rank Delta as the best US airlines. Delta was also recently named the top right carrier, across all premium cabins and J.D. Power's North American Airlines Satisfaction Study.

    為了表彰我們員工的非凡技能和關懷,達美航空在最近的IATA 年會上被《航空運輸世界》評為2024 年全球年度航空公司,並且連續第六年被The Points Guy 評為美國最佳航空公司。達美航空最近也被評為所有高級客艙和 J.D. Power 北美航空滿意度研究中右上方的航空公司。

  • Sharing our success with our people is core to our culture, and we are at the forefront on total rewards for our employees. We provided a 5% pay raise on the June 1, to eligible employees than we have accrued more than $640 million in profit sharing through the first half of the year. I am confident our profit sharing payout next February will continue to lead the industry by a wide margin.

    與員工分享成功是我們文化的核心,我們在員工整體獎勵方面處於領先地位。 6 月 1 日,我們向符合資格的員工提供了 5% 的加薪,而上半年我們已獲得超過 6.4 億美元的利潤分享。我相信我們明年二月的利潤分享支出將繼續大幅領先業界。

  • Our people are the foundation that enables Delta to deliver elevated experiences to our customers. To further differentiate our service excellence. We are making high return investments that may travel more seamless and connected, including generational airport rebuilds, the most comprehensive lounge network in the industry, expanded premium offerings and fast free WiFi onboard.

    我們的員工是達美航空能為顧客提供卓越體驗的基礎。進一步區分我們的卓越服務。我們正在進行高回報投資,這些投資可能會讓旅行變得更加無縫和互聯,包括世代機場重建、業內最全面的休息室網路、擴展的優質服務和快速的免費機上 WiFi。

  • Just a few weeks ago, we opened our new Delta One Lounge in JFK, the first-of-its-kind. It offers a variety of world-class amenities for our customers from fine dining to spa treatments. And later this year, we'll open Delta One Lounges in Boston and Los Angeles and in Seattle early next year. We're also enhancing existing Delta Sky Clubs with the recent expand of the Miami and the Gordian clubs.

    就在幾週前,我們在甘迺迪機場開設了第一個全新的達美航空休息室。它為我們的客戶提供各種世界一流的設施,從精緻的餐飲到水療護理。今年晚些時候,我們將在波士頓和洛杉磯以及明年初在西雅圖開設達美航空休息室。我們也透過最近擴建的邁阿密俱樂部和 Gordian 俱樂部來增強現有的達美航空飛凡俱樂部。

  • Onboard we have upgraded service in our Delta Premium Select cabin and will expand this popular product to select transcontinental fights this fall. We recently released the most comprehensive refresh of the fly Delta app in the last five years. Updates to the app added new features and functionality to save customers time and manage their travel even when the unexpected happens.

    在機上,我們升級了達美優選精選客艙的服務,並將於今年秋季將這項受歡迎的產品擴展至精選的跨大陸比賽。我們最近發布了過去五年來最全面的達美航空應用程式更新。該應用程式的更新添加了新的功能和功能,即使發生意外情況也可以節省客戶時間並管理他們的旅行。

  • Since the launch, a record number of customers that visit the app, the self-service usage during periods of disruption, up five full points, improving the customer experience. And more and more customers are joining our SkyMiles loyalty program and deepening engagement beyond flight for about 30% of our active members carrying Delta SkyMiles American Express credit card in their wallet.

    自推出以來,訪問該應用程式的客戶數量創歷史新高,中斷期間的自助服務使用量增加了五個滿分,改善了客戶體驗。越來越多的客戶加入我們的「飛凡哩程常客計畫」忠誠度計劃,並加深了飛行以外的參與度,大約30% 的活躍會員在錢包中持有達美「飛凡哩程常客計畫」美國運通信用卡。

  • New card acquisitions are skewing younger, and the overall portfolio continues to shift to a more premium mix positioning us well to achieve our long-term remuneration goal of $10 billion.

    新卡收購趨於年輕化,整體投資組合繼續轉向更優質的組合,這使我們能夠很好地實現 100 億美元的長期薪酬目標。

  • Finally, just this week, we are excited to announce an exclusive partnership with Riyadh Air, a new global carrier that will begin service in Saudi Arabia next year. Riyadh Air will be the premier international airline for Saudi Arabia and this partnership will expand connectivity and premium travel options for both airlines across North America, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and beyond.

    最後,就在本週,我們很高興地宣布與利雅德航空建立獨家合作夥伴關係,利雅德航空是一家新的全球航空公司,將於明年開始在沙烏地阿拉伯提供服務。利雅德航空將成為沙烏地阿拉伯首屈一指的國際航空公司,此次合作將為兩家航空公司在北美、沙烏地阿拉伯王國及其他地區擴大連通性和優質旅行選擇。

  • The agreement comes a bit large-scale investments in the region that are rapidly transforming the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia into a popular destination for leisure and business travel with tremendous opportunity for growth. All of our continued investments across the travel ribbon strengthen Delta's trusted brand and build on our long-term journey to elevate the travel experience and increase our financial durability.

    該協議是該地區進行的大規模投資,這些投資正在迅速將沙烏地阿拉伯王國轉變為一個受歡迎的休閒和商務旅行目的地,並具有巨大的成長機會。我們在旅行領域的所有持續投資都增強了達美值得信賴的品牌,並建立在我們提升旅遊體驗和財務穩健性的長期旅程之上。

  • Delta's industry leadership has never been greater. And while demand for air travel remains strong, with record TSA travel volumes up 7% from last year's levels; domestic industry seek growth has accelerated through the summer months, impacting yield performance in the main cabin. As the carrier of choice with a diversified revenue base, Delta is the most insulated from this dynamic.

    台達航空的產業領導地位從未如此強大。儘管航空旅行的需求依然強勁,運輸安全管理局 (TSA) 的旅行量較去年增長了 7%,創歷史新高;整個夏季,國內產業尋求成長加速,影響了主艙的產量表現。作為收入基礎多元化的首選航空公司,達美航空是最不受這種影響的。

  • We are delivering double-digit margins and strong returns in this environment, with Delta expected to generate 50% of the industry's profitability in the first half of the year despite only representing 20% of the market capacity. That said, we are encouraged by the actions the industry is taking. Seat growth is decelerating, and there appears to be increased focus on improving financial performance. While our returns are strong, I'm confident that we'll see an even more constructive industry backdrop through the back half of the year into 2025.

    在這種環境下,我們實現了兩位數的利潤率和強勁的回報,儘管達美航空僅佔市場容量的 20%,但預計今年上半年將產生該行業 50% 的盈利能力。也就是說,我們對該行業正在採取的行動感到鼓舞。席位成長正在放緩,人們似乎更專注於改善財務表現。雖然我們的回報強勁,但我相信,從下半年到 2025 年,我們將看到更具建設性的產業背景。

  • Turning to our outlook, travel remains a top purchase priority and Delta's core customers are in a healthy position. The secular shift in consumer spends, prioritize experiences align perfectly with Delta's strategy and premium focus across our global network. Air travel demand is at record levels with this past Sunday marking Delta's highest ever summer revenue day.

    就我們的前景而言,旅行仍然是首要購買重點,達美航空的核心客戶狀況良好。消費者支出的長期轉變、優先考慮的體驗與達美航空的策略以及我們全球網路的高端服務重點完全一致。航空旅行需求達到創紀錄水平,上週日是達美航空有史以來夏季收入最高的一天。

  • For the September quarter, we expect continued demand strength, a double-digit operating margin, and a pretax profit of approximately $1.5 billion. Glen and Dan will provide more details on our third-quarter outlook. With strong first half performance and good visibility into the second half, we remain confident in our full year guidance for earnings of $6 to $7 per share, free cash flow of $3 billion to $4 billion, and leverage of 2.5 times.

    對於 9 月的季度,我們預計需求將持續強勁,營業利潤率將達到兩位數,稅前利潤將達到約 15 億美元。格倫和丹將提供有關我們第三季前景的更多詳細資訊。憑藉強勁的上半年業績和良好的下半年前景,我們對每股收益 6 至 7 美元、自由現金流 30 億至 40 億美元和槓桿 2.5 倍的全年指引仍然充滿信心。

  • In closing as we approach our 100 year anniversary in 2025, Delta is in a stronger position than ever before. Our industry-leading performance reflects the strength of Delta's differentiated brand and returns focused strategy. And with our clear prioritization of free cash flow and debt reduction, Delta is exceptionally well positioned to deliver significant shareholder value. We look forward to sharing more about our long-term strategic and financial goals at our upcoming Investor Day in New York this November.

    最後,隨著 2025 年迎來成立 100 週年,達美航空處於比以往任何時候都更強大的地位。我們業界領先的業績體現了達美差異化品牌和注重回報的策略的實力。由於我們明確優先考慮自由現金流和減少債務,達美航空處於非常有利的地位,可以提供顯著的股東價值。我們期待在今年 11 月即將於紐約舉行的投資者日上分享更多有關我們長期策略和財務目標的資訊。

  • Thank you again. And with that, let me hand it over to Glen for more details on our commercial performance.

    再次感謝你。接下來,讓我將其交給格倫,以了解有關我們商業表現的更多詳細資訊。

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • Thank you, Ed, and good morning.

    謝謝你,艾德,早安。

  • I want to start by thanking our employees for their hard work and dedication. They are the Delta difference. Revenue for the June quarter increased 5.4% year over year to a record $15.4 billion. Total unit revenue was down 2.6% compared to last year. Below our guidance due to three dynamics.

    首先,我要感謝我們的員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。他們是達美差異。六月季度的營收年增 5.4%,達到創紀錄的 154 億美元。單位總收入比去年下降 2.6%。由於三個因素,低於我們的指導。

  • First, domestic industry seat growth accelerated into the summer months beyond normal demand growth. This has impacted main cabin unit revenue trends through the summer with scheduled seat growth decelerating into the whole June and July will be the low point with unit revenue trends expected to significantly improve in August and beyond.

    首先,進入夏季月份,國內工業席次成長加速,超越正常需求成長。這影響了整個夏季的主艙單位收入趨勢,整個 6 月和 7 月的預定座位成長將放緩,而 7 月將是最低點,單位收入趨勢預計將在 8 月及以後顯著改善。

  • Second, we are seeing about a $100 million impact on travel to Paris for the Olympics from June to August. Outside of this temporary event, summer travel demand to Europe is strong and consistent with our expectations. And lastly, as Ed noted, we ran a great operation with a high completion factor.

    其次,我們看到 6 月至 8 月前往巴黎參加奧運會的旅行受到約 1 億美元的影響。除了這次臨時活動之外,夏季前往歐洲的旅遊需求強勁,符合我們的預期。最後,正如艾德所指出的,我們的營運非常出色,完成率很高。

  • Premium continued to outperform and differentiate our results. Premium revenue was up 10% over prior year with positive unit revenue growth. We have runway ahead as we continue adding more premium seat store aircraft improving our retailing capabilities and further segmenting our products.

    Premium 繼續跑贏我們的業績並使其脫穎而出。保費收入較上年增長 10%,單位收入呈正增長。隨著我們繼續增加更多高級座椅商店飛機,提高我們的零售能力並進一步細分我們的產品,我們已經取得了領先地位。

  • Loyalty has also outperformed with revenue up 8% as our SkyMiles member base continues to expand. Spend growth in our co-brand card portfolio is expected to continue outpacing the credit card industry. American Express renumeration for the quarter was $1.9 billion, up 9% year over year.

    隨著我們的「飛凡哩程常客計畫」會員群不斷擴大,忠誠度也表現出色,營收成長了 8%。我們的聯名品牌卡組合的支出成長預計將繼續超過信用卡產業。美國運通本季薪資為 19 億美元,年增 9%。

  • Cargo revenue was 16% higher than the previous year, a significant improvement from the last 12 months, and we are encouraged by the trends we're seeing. Diverse revenue streams generated 56% of total revenue. These valuable revenue streams were led by a premium and loyalty are continuing higher growth in margins underpinning Delta's industry-leading financial performance and increasing our financial durability.

    貨運收入比上年增長 16%,比過去 12 個月有了顯著改善,我們對所看到的趨勢感到鼓舞。多元化收入來源佔總收入的 56%。這些寶貴的收入流由保費和忠誠度帶動,利潤率持續較高增長,支撐達美航空行業領先的財務業績,並提高我們的財務耐用性。

  • Domestic passenger revenue was up 5% over the prior year, and international passenger revenue grew 4% over last year's record June quarter. As the business carrier of choice, Delta benefited from double-digit volume growth in this high value segment with a broad demand growth across all sectors. Looking forward, demand for travel on Delta remains robust. Our core customer base is healthy and demand for premium products continues to outperform the main cabin.

    國內客運收入比去年同期成長 5%,國際客運收入比去年創紀錄的 6 月季度成長 4%。作為首選的商業航空公司,達美航空受益於此高價值細分市場兩位數的銷售成長以及所有行業的廣泛需求成長。展望未來,達美航空的旅遊需求依然強勁。我們的核心客戶群是健康的,對優質產品的需求持續超過主客艙。

  • We expect the strong growth in business travel to continue with 90% of companies in our recent corporate survey saying we intend to maintain or increase travel volumes in the back half of the year. International demand is strong and continues to benefit from demographic shifts, US point of sale changes, and an extension of the leisure travel season. As our international network and core hubs approach full restoration, and we return to a more normal cadence of retiring aircraft Delta's capacity growth decelerate into the second half of the year.

    我們預計商務旅行將繼續強勁成長,在我們最近的企業調查中,90% 的公司表示我們打算在今年下半年維持或增加旅行量。國際需求強勁,並持續受益於人口結構變化、美國銷售點變化以及休閒旅遊季節的延長。隨著我們的國際網路和核心樞紐接近全面恢復,以及我們恢復到更正常的飛機退役節奏,達美航空的運力成長將在今年下半年放緩。

  • For the September quarter, we expect capacity growth of 5% to 6% and revenue growth of 2% to 4%. Total unit revenue is expected to sequentially improve each month. In domestic, we expect an inflection to positive unit revenue growth in the month of September. We also expect transatlantic unit revenue trends to improve into the fall. And in Latin America, we expect unit revenue trends to progressively improve through the back half of the year.

    對於 9 月的季度,我們預計產能將成長 5% 至 6%,營收成長 2% 至 4%。單位總收入預計每個月都會持續改善。在國內,我們預期 9 月份單位收入將出現正成長。我們也預計跨大西洋單位收入趨勢將在秋季有所改善。在拉丁美洲,我們預期單位收入趨勢將在今年下半年逐步改善。

  • Lastly, in the Pacific, we are continuing to restore our network and are very pleased with the early results from our new service to Taipei and the success of our partnership with Korean Air. Specific margins are sustaining at a meaningfully higher level than pre-pandemic due to our multi-year restructuring driving sustainable profitability.

    最後,在太平洋地區,我們正在繼續恢復我們的網絡,並對我們飛往台北的新服務的早期成果以及我們與大韓航空合作夥伴關係的成功感到非常滿意。由於我們的多年重組推動了可持續的盈利能力,具體利潤率維持在比大流行前高得多的水平。

  • For the full year, we expect to deliver a sustained unit revenue premium, double-digit margins, and returns well in excess of our cost of capital. Our ability to deliver these outstanding results while the industry works to reestablish equilibrium reflects Delta's growing differentiation and leadership.

    全年,我們預計將實現持續的單位收入溢價、兩位數的利潤率和遠超過資本成本的回報。在業界努力重建平衡的同時,我們能夠提供這些出色的業績,這反映了達美航空日益增長的差異化和領導地位。

  • In closing, I want to congratulate the Delta team for an outstanding first half of 2024. We are well positioned to continue our momentum through the second half and for years to come.

    最後,我要祝賀達美航空團隊在 2024 年上半年取得了出色的表現。

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to Dan to talk about the financials.

    接下來,我將把它交給丹來討論財務狀況。

  • Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Glen, and good morning to everyone.

    謝謝你,格倫,祝大家早安。

  • For the June quarter, we delivered pretax income of $2 billion on a 15% operating margin. Earnings of $2.36 per share was in line with our guidance and in line with 2019 despite fuel prices that were more than 25% higher. Nonfuel chasm was up 0.6% year over year, more than one point better than guidance, primarily on stronger completion factor. A great operation is the foundation of a competitive cost structure. And in the June quarter, we delivered a 99.5% system and completion factor, including 13 cancel free brand perfect days .

    在六月季度,我們實現了 20 億美元的稅前收入,營業利潤率為 15%。儘管燃油價格上漲了 25% 以上,但每股收益 2.36 美元符合我們的指導,也符合 2019 年的情況。非燃料缺口年增 0.6%,比指導值高出 1 個百分點以上,這主要是由於完成係數更高。良好的營運是具有競爭力的成本結構的基礎。在 6 月季度,我們交付了 99.5% 的系統和完成率,其中包括 13 個免費取消品牌完美日。

  • For the first half. Delta has delivered 39 brand perfect days more than all of last year combined. Fuel prices averaged $2.64 per gallon for the quarter. This included a $0.06 benefit from the refinery profit of $60 million. Fuel efficiency was 1.1% better than last year, benefiting from the continued renewal of our fleet and running a great operation.

    對於上半場來說。達美航空已交付 39 個品牌完美天數,比去年全年的總和還要多。本季燃油價格平均為每加侖 2.64 美元。其中包括 6,000 萬美元煉油廠利潤中的 0.06 美元收益。由於我們機隊的持續更新和良好的運營,燃油效率比去年提高了 1.1%。

  • Operating cash flow in the first half was $4.9 billion and after and reinvesting $2.3 billion back into the business, we generate free cash flow of $2.7 billion. Strong cash generation has support debt repayment of $2.1 billion year to date, including $900 million of early repayments.

    上半年的營運現金流為 49 億美元,在將 23 億美元重新投資回業務後,我們產生了 27 億美元的自由現金流。強勁的現金產生能力支持今年迄今 21 億美元的債務償還,其中包括 9 億美元的提前還款。

  • Gross leverage ended the quarter at 2.8 times. We remain on track to repay $4 billion of debt this year and are committed to further strengthening our balance sheet with a focus on returning to full investment grade. Delta is currently investment-grade rated at Moody's and BB+ at both S&P and Fitch with all agencies with a positive outlook.

    本季末總槓桿率為 2.8 倍。我們今年仍有望償還 40 億美元的債務,並致力於進一步加強我們的資產負債表,重點是恢復到完全投資等級。達美航空目前獲得穆迪投資級評級以及標準普爾和惠譽的 BB+ 評級,所有機構都對前景持樂觀態度。

  • With strong results and cash flow for the first half, we announced a 50% increase in our quarterly dividend, this puts our annualized dividend yield at just over 1% in line with the S&P 500.

    憑藉上半年強勁的業績和現金流,我們宣布將季度股息增加 50%,這使我們的年化股息收益率略高於 1%,與標準普爾 500 指數持平。

  • Now moving to the September quarter guidance, combined with our outlook for top-line growth, we expected operating margin of 11% to 13% with earnings of $1.70 to $2 per share. Fuel prices are expected to be $2.60 to $2.80 per gallon, including approximately 5% contribution from the refinery. Finery margins have normalized, and profits are expected to be $60 million lower compared to third quarter of last year.

    現在轉向 9 月季度指導,結合我們對營收成長的展望,我們預計營業利潤率為 11% 至 13%,每股收益為 1.70 美元至 2 美元。燃油價格預計為每加侖 2.60 至 2.80 美元,其中煉油廠貢獻約 5%。精細化工利潤率已經正常化,預計利潤將比去年第三季減少 6,000 萬美元。

  • Non-fuel unit costs are expected to be 1% to 2% higher than last year on 5% to 6% capacity growth. With normalized growth and consistency in delivering a great operation, we are making progress in driving efficiency and growing into our resources. On maintenance, the investment in fleet health we made since last summer are paying off with maintenance cancellations in the first half, down 77% over prior years.

    由於產能成長 5% 至 6%,非燃料單位成本預計將比去年高出 1% 至 2%。透過正常成長和持續實現卓越運營,我們在提高效率和資源利用方面取得了進展。在維護方面,我們自去年夏天以來在車隊健康方面所做的投資得到了回報,上半年維護取消次數比往年減少了 77%。

  • We continue to expect full year maintenance expense to be up $350 million over 2023 as we progress through elevated volume of heavy airframe and engine checks and continue to manage industry-wide supply constraints. The majority of this increase was in the first half of the year, with second half maintenance expense expected to be similar on a year-over-year basis.

    我們繼續預計,隨著重型機身和引擎檢查量的增加,並繼續管理全行業的供應限制,2023 年全年維護費用將增加 3.5 億美元。這一增長大部分發生在上半年,預計下半年維護費用將與去年同期相似。

  • Total non-fuel unit costs in the second half are expected to increase in the low-single digits as we fund investments in our people and brand and capacity growth decelerates. For the year, our fleet growth is expected to be less than 2%, including approximately 40 aircraft deliveries and 20 retirements. Our unencumbered asset base is expected to grow to $30 billion by year end as we continue to pay cash for our new deliveries.

    由於我們為員工投資以及品牌和產能成長放緩,預計下半年非燃料單位總成本將以低個位數成長。今年,我們的機隊成長預計將低於 2%,其中包括約 40 架飛機交付和 20 架退役飛機。隨著我們繼續為新交付的產品支付現金,我們的未支配資產預計到年底將成長到 300 億美元。

  • We remain confident in our full year outlook of earnings of $6 to $7 per share and free cash flow of $3 billion to $4 billion with full year CapEx expected to be $5 billion. With a continued focus on margin and returns to drive sustained cash flow generation, Delta is well positioned to improve our balance sheet to investment-grade metrics and deliver shareholder value.

    我們對全年每股收益 6 至 7 美元、自由現金流 30 億至 40 億美元的前景充滿信心,全年資本支出預計為 50 億美元。達美航空持續專注於利潤和回報以推動持續的現金流生成,因此有能力將我們的資產負債表改善至投資等級指標並實現股東價值。

  • In closing, Delta's industry leading performance is a direct result of the hard work of our employees. I want to thank the Delta people for continuing to go above and beyond for our customers and each other every day.

    最後,台達業界領先的業績是台達員工努力工作的直接結果。我要感謝達美航空員工每天不斷為我們的客戶和彼此超越。

  • And with that, I'll turn it back to Ed for a final remark.

    說到這裡,我將把它轉回給艾德,讓他做最後的評論。

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Dan.

    謝謝你,丹。

  • Before we begin to Q&A, I want to personally recognize and congratulate Helane Becker on a very accomplished career as an analyst covering this industry for four decades. Helane, I have a great amount of respect for you and for all the work that you've done through the years. And while I know you'll be continuing in an advisory role, we will miss working with you and wish you all the best. May the golf God speak to you.

    在我們開始問答之前,我想親自表揚並祝賀 Helane Becker 作為涵蓋該行業的分析師四十年,取得了非常成就的職業生涯。 Helane,我非常尊重你以及你多年來所做的所有工作。雖然我知道您將繼續擔任顧問角色,但我們會懷念與您的合作,並祝您一切順利。願高爾夫之神對你說話。

  • Operator, please begin the Q&A.

    接線員,請開始問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

    康納·坎寧安,Melius 研究中心。

  • Conor Cunningham - Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Analyst

  • Congratulate and good luck in on the golf game.

    恭喜並祝您在高爾夫比賽中好運。

  • In terms of the comment on September for the US domestic market, can you just help bridge the gap there? My guess is that you're pretty minimally booked for September so is just an industry supply getting better -- just given a discounting that's happening, right now. Just all hard around macro matter and so just any thoughts there would be helpful. Thank you, sir.

    關於9月對美國國內市場的評論,您能幫忙彌補那裡的差距嗎?我的猜測是,九月的預訂量非常少,所以只是行業供應變得更好——只是考慮到現在正在發生的折扣。只是圍繞宏觀問題非常困難,所以任何想法都會有幫助。謝謝你,先生。

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • Sure, Conor. I wouldn't say we are minimally booked. We probably have about a September 3, bookings domestically on hand. So we have a good base and the base we have is substantially better than the base we have going into July and August at minus 60 days.

    當然,康納。我不會說我們的預訂量最少。我們手頭上可能有 9 月 3 日左右的國內預訂。因此,我們有一個良好的基礎,而且我們的基礎比我們進入 7 月和 8 月的負 60 天的基礎要好得多。

  • So we see a much better base. And then, of course, the core economics of the industry's capacity coming continuing to come down and going back into a more normalized business season where business tends to tick up from August to September. So I think when you think about one of our core strengths being business, July and August, that's not ever been peak for business. So as we move back into the business season, given the trends we've seen in business demand, we think that will be another uplift.

    所以我們看到了一個更好的基礎。然後,當然,該行業產能的核心經濟將繼續下降,並回到一個更正常化的商業季節,從八月到九月,業務往往會增加。所以我認為,當你想到我們的核心優勢之一是業務時,七月和八月,這並不是業務的高峰期。因此,當我們回到商業季節時,考慮到我們所看到的商業需求趨勢,我們認為這將是另一次提振。

  • So really confident about our September numbers and really confident that not only have domestically improving substantially, but international is also improving dramatically.

    對我們 9 月的數據非常有信心,並且非常有信心不僅在國內大幅改善,而且在國際上也大幅改善。

  • Conor Cunningham - Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Analyst

  • Helpful. And then maybe bigger picture issue that we've been grappling with is just like the overall structure of the industry over the next couple of years. I get the idea that the current state of industry margin into changing outside of Europe and United. But can you just give us how confident are you not there actually be structural changes going forward?

    有幫助。也許我們一直在努力解決的更大問題就像未來幾年行業的整體結構一樣。我的想法是,歐洲和美國以外的行業利潤率現狀正在改變。但您能否告訴我們,您對未來實際上不會發生結構性變化的信心有多大?

  • Is the pushback we get? Is that as just kind of just the same old industry that just continues to oversupply the market from time to time? So just any thoughts on the bigger industry, our industry picture that? Thank you.

    我們受到的阻力是嗎?這是否只是一個老行業,只是不時地繼續供應過剩?那麼,對更大的產業、我們的產業前景有什麼想法嗎?謝謝。

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • Well, I'll comment on the capacity and then let me take the broader question. On capacity I do think, listen, this is an industry that's always challenging itself for how much capacity can be in the marketplace. And I've been doing this for 40 years, and I've never seen the industry react so quickly to an oversupply. So we really only been in an oversupply situation for a couple of months here and your industry has already reacted. And I think that's very different than it was years ago, where it would stay for prolonged periods of time. So I'm really excited about how the industry is behaving at this point.

    好吧,我將評論容量,然後讓我回答更廣泛的問題。關於產能,我確實認為,聽著,這個產業總是在市場上有多少產能來挑戰自己。我已經這樣做了 40 年,我從未見過該行業對供應過剩做出如此迅速的反應。因此,我們實際上只處於供應過剩的情況幾個月,而你們的行業已經做出了反應。我認為這與幾年前有很大不同,它會停留很長時間。所以我對這個行業目前的表現感到非常興奮。

  • And for the broader question, I'll turn it back to Ed.

    對於更廣泛的問題,我將把它轉回艾德。

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Conor to Glen's point, the law of economics are physics whatever you want to say is going to have to work. You cannot if you're on the lower end of the industry's food chain continue to post losses, particularly given the health of the demand set we've all seen over these last couple of years. So I don't know what form that will take. But I guarantee you and you already starting to see capacity is always the effort is usually the first thing that you lever you have available, but there will be more levers available as well.

    康納就格倫的觀點而言,經濟法則就是物理學,無論你想說什麼都必須起作用。如果你處於行業食物鏈的低端,你就不能繼續虧損,特別是考慮到過去幾年我們都看到的需求的健康狀況。所以我不知道會採取什麼形式。但我向你保證,你已經開始看到能力始終是努力通常是你可以利用的第一件事,但也會有更多可用的槓桿。

  • The health of the industry broadly is in pretty good shape. Now I recognize what I just said, the lower half is struggling. But if you look at where we all need to go as an industry is that we need to continue to better differentiate and provide value to our customers. Value in this industry for many years was defined as having the lowest fare in the market. That change has changed dramatically.

    總體而言,該行業的健康狀況相當良好。現在我體認到我剛才所說的,下半身正在掙扎。但如果你看看我們作為一個行業都需要走向何方,那就是我們需要繼續更好地差異化並為客戶提供價值。多年來,該行業的價值被定義為市場上最低的票價。這種變化發生了巨大的變化。

  • The experience economy that we've seen has taken hold. That's driven the high demand set that we are seeing and continue to see an even with the third quarter revenue quote-unquote disappointment is still going to be a record set of revenues that we're going to see this quarter.

    我們所看到的體驗經濟已經佔據主導地位。這推動了我們所看到的高需求,即使第三季收入令人失望,本季我們仍將看到創紀錄的收入。

  • I'm convinced across the industry is rewarding those that are providing real value, meaning a better quality experience, better value for money in terms of the product we're offering and reliability, coupled that with the higher cost of entry higher than we've ever seen, whether it's labor, whether it's the constraints in the environment, the infrastructure, OEM engine supply, this is turning into an industry that is going to be needing to return its cost of capital or will not be those that don't will not be given the opportunity to continue to run the business models they have.

    我相信整個行業都會獎勵那些提供真正價值的人,這意味著更好的品質體驗,在我們提供的產品和可靠性方面更物有所值,再加上比我們更高的進入成本。過,無論是勞動力,還是環境、基礎設施、OEM發動機供應方面的限制,這正在變成一個需要收回資本成本的行業,或者不會是那些不需要資本成本的行業將不會有機會繼續經營他們擁有的商業模式。

  • So I realize I'm talking my own book, and I appreciate that there's a lot of other work that others need to lift this, and we're driving 50% of the overall industry profitability here at Delta. There's only so much more we can do on our own. And as things get better, Delta is only going to be beneficiary.

    所以我意識到我正在談論我自己的書,我很欣賞其他人需要做很多其他工作來提升這一點,而我們在達美航空推動了整個行業 50% 的盈利能力。我們自己能做的就只有這麼多了。隨著情況變得更好,達美航空只會成為受益者。

  • Conor Cunningham - Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Savi Syth, Raymond James.

    薩維·賽斯,雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

  • Savanthi Syth - Analyst

    Savanthi Syth - Analyst

  • Just I think, Conor Boeing challenges. I well understood that the uptake from Airbus a few weeks ago was surprising. And I wonder you could talk about how you're managing through the supply chain issues and any early thoughts on how you're thinking things evolve in 2025 in terms of just managing the operation, but also in terms of kind of planning for growth.

    只是我認為,康納波音提出了挑戰。我很清楚幾週前空中巴士的採用是令人驚訝的。我想知道您能談談您是如何管理供應鏈問題的,以及您對 2025 年事情如何發展的早期想法,不僅包括管理運營,還包括成長規劃。

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Savi, this is Ed. I'll take that.

    薩維,這是艾德。我會接受的。

  • Airbus like Boeing continues to have certain delivery challenges. Obviously, nowhere close to the challenges that Boeing has experienced. And as one of Airbuses largest and best customers, Delta again is insulated somewhat from that. We're going to take largely the delivery schedule that we anticipated for the year. You have some may slip for you're talking about slip, meaning in terms of weeks and months, not years of delay.

    與波音公司一樣,空中巴士仍然面臨一定的交付挑戰。顯然,這與波音所經歷的挑戰相差甚遠。作為空中巴士公司最大和最好的客戶之一,達美航空再次在某種程度上免受這種影響。我們將主要採用今年預期的交貨時間表。你可能會遇到一些延誤,因為你談論的是延誤,意思是幾週和幾個月的延誤,而不是幾年的延誤。

  • And as long as we have as we do have pretty good notice of where the delays in delivery are coming, we will be just fine in 2025 I don't anticipate us having any problems with aircraft that we're going to need for the capacity we'd like to fight.

    只要我們對交付延遲的情況有很好的了解,我們到 2025 年就會沒事 我預計我們所需的飛機不會出現任何問題我們想戰鬥。

  • Savanthi Syth - Analyst

    Savanthi Syth - Analyst

  • I am guessing then on an operational standpoint, maybe not expecting any improvement cited as having just extra buffers will continue.

    我猜測,從操作的角度來看,也許不會期望任何被稱為只有額外緩衝區的改進將會繼續。

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We have a large fleet and our maintenance capabilities continue to improve the challenge we face on the maintenance front-end to be more parts supply than anything else as well as the all these new engine platforms that are out there from the GTF to the late to the trends stabilizing, but they continue to get better.

    我們擁有龐大的車隊,我們的維護能力不斷提高,我們在維護前端面臨的挑戰是比其他任何東西都提供更多的零件供應,以及從 GTF 到後期的所有這些新發動機平台。但仍在繼續變得更好。

  • And I think the opportunities for us as things stabilize and is it's become more available and as new aircraft continue to deliver will be for us to resume the retirement of our older fleet, which we indicated is already starting to do and which will create even more parts availability back to our maintenance team.

    我認為,隨著情況穩定下來,隨著新飛機的不斷交付,我們的機會將是恢復舊機隊的退役,我們表示已經開始這樣做,這將創造更多零件可用性返回給我們的維護團隊。

  • Savanthi Syth - Analyst

    Savanthi Syth - Analyst

  • That's helpful. Thanks, Ed.

    這很有幫助。謝謝,艾德。

  • And if I might, Glen, asked about on the left-hand side, you mentioned kind of encouraged that we are seeing that as kind of curious on the unit revenue pressure. Is that still coming from short haul with long haul still largely flattish even despite the growth? And where are you expecting the improvement as you go through?

    格倫,如果我可以的話,在左邊詢問,你提到有點令人鼓舞,因為我們認為這是對單位收入壓力的好奇。儘管增長,但這仍然來自短途航班,而長途航班仍然基本持平嗎?在經歷過程中,您期望在哪些方面有所改善?

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • Actually long-haul south has inflected positive and its remaining solidly positive throughout the third quarter here. So we're pretty excited about those results. And yes, still not lapping the reduction capacity in the leisure short haul portfolio. But that is in play, and it looks that the industry is going to be much more disciplined in terms of capacity levels this winter versus last winter. So we're looking at really positive momentum of that moving forward and that continuing.

    事實上,南方長途航線已經出現了積極的變化,並且在整個第三季度仍然保持著積極的勢頭。所以我們對這些結果感到非常興奮。是的,休閒短程航線組合的產能削減仍然沒有結束。但這正在發揮作用,而且看起來該行業今年冬天的產能水平將比去年冬天更加嚴格。因此,我們正在尋找前進和持續的真正積極勢頭。

  • Savanthi Syth - Analyst

    Savanthi Syth - Analyst

  • I appreciate it. Thank you.

    我很感激。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jamie Baker, JPMorgan.

    傑米貝克,摩根大通。

  • Jamie Baker - Analyst

    Jamie Baker - Analyst

  • So Glen, this concept of unbundling the front cabin is one that I've been thinking about. And in part because unbundling segmenting the rear cabin has been such a success for Delta and a few others. I want to be careful about asking about future pricing on that, but I'm curious what the pros and cons are in terms of possibly going down this path or is one price for all how we should continue to think about the D1 cabin?

    格倫,將前艙分開的概念是我一直在考慮的一個。部分原因是達美航空和其他一些公司對後艙的分拆分割取得瞭如此成功。我想謹慎詢問未來的定價,但我很好奇可能走這條路的利弊是什麼,或者我們應該如何繼續考慮 D1 艙的一個價格?

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • I think you're going to have to come to Investor Day to hear more about that. We've talk conceptually about that. I think we'll be giving you more details as we get, but we're not ready to talk about the details of those plans moving forward. I think Investor Day this year should be very exciting.

    我想你必須參加投資者日才能聽到更多相關資訊。我們已經從概念上討論過這一點。我想我們會盡快向您提供更多細節,但我們還沒有準備好談論這些計劃的細節。我認為今年的投資者日應該會非常令人興奮。

  • Jamie Baker - Analyst

    Jamie Baker - Analyst

  • I'm confident that we'll work it into by his schedule.

    我相信我們會按照他的日程安排進行。

  • And then, you know, maybe maybe for Ed or for Glen, at a high level, it seems that those airlines that are currently under duress are sort of beginning to lean into premium and maybe premium is too strong of a term. But you know, some of the more punitive ancillary charges, change fees are disappearing, but as an option of empty middle seat, Southwest and said they're looking at some sort of enhancements to their product.

    然後,你知道,也許對艾德或格倫來說,從高層來看,那些目前面臨壓力的航空公司似乎開始傾向於溢價,也許溢價這個詞太強了。但你知道,一些更具懲罰性的輔助費用、改簽費正在消失,但作為空置中間座位的一種選擇,西南航空表示他們正在考慮對其產品進行某種增強。

  • I'm just curious if this is something you and the team think about the conventional wisdom is that premium spoils belong to Delta, but what we're seeing today is that Delta is not entirely isolated from a low-end overcapacity. I'm just thinking down the road if we could find Delta isn't it isolated from, let's call it, pseudo-premium overcapacity? Any thoughts there? Thanks in advance.

    我只是好奇你和團隊是否認為這就是傳統觀點,即溢價戰利品屬於達美航空,但我們今天看到的是,達美航空並沒有完全擺脫低端產能過剩的影響。我只是在想,如果我們能找到達美航空,它是否不會與我們稱之為偽溢價產能過剩的情況隔離開來?有什麼想法嗎?提前致謝。

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So Jamie, that's a good question. It's certainly something that we will look at. Your premium is more than just putting more seats or excuse me, more and more room in seats. And it's the overall experience, right. And yes, I think all of those experiments that we hear about some of the lower fare airlines, or the discount airlines are considering you can't blame on.

    傑米,這是個好問題。這肯定是我們會關注的事情。您的溢價不僅僅是增加更多座位,或者對不起,增加越來越多的座位空間。這是整體體驗,對吧。是的,我認為我們聽到的一些低價航空公司或折扣航空公司正在考慮的所有這些實驗都不能歸咎於你。

  • I would oppose them consider some of those as well. But premium is also based on a foundation of overall reliability and service first and foremost, and that's what we have focused on and specialized and done better over the last 15 years and then the airline and we continue to get better.

    我反對他們也考慮其中的一些。但優質服務首先也是基於整體可靠性和服務的基礎,這就是我們在過去 15 年中專注、專業化並做得更好的基礎,然後航空公司和我們將繼續變得更好。

  • And in fact, the operations we've run this year for the best in the industry across every measure, every month, month-in and month-out. That gives you then freedom to actually deliver true premium experiences, comparative somewhat deal, maybe more superficial experience, and that may is what we're best at. That's why business travelers choose Delta there. That's why we have the opportunities internationally that we do. That's why American Express, top credit card provider in the world my opinion chooses Delta as their exclusive partner.

    事實上,我們今年的營運在每個指標、每個月、每個月都是業界最好的。這使您可以自由地實際提供真正的優質體驗,比較優惠,也許更膚淺的體驗,而這可能是我們最擅長的。這就是商務旅客選擇達美航空的原因。這就是為什麼我們擁有國際機會。這就是為什麼我認為世界頂級信用卡供應商美國運通選擇達美航空作為他們的獨家合作夥伴。

  • So I think there's room for more and I would in the industry needs to continue to find better, better ways away. It's to manage the higher cost that they're facing. Remember, the cost to serve has gone up for everybody, but especially for the discounters. And the only way you can cover that is providing a better experience.

    所以我認為還有更多的空間,我在這個行業需要繼續尋找更好、更好的方法。這是為了管理他們面臨的更高成本。請記住,每個人的服務成本都上升了,尤其是折扣店。解決這個問題的唯一方法就是提供更好的體驗。

  • Jamie Baker - Analyst

    Jamie Baker - Analyst

  • Yes, that's great. Thank you very much for that response. Take care. See you at the Investor Day.

    是的,那太好了。非常感謝您的回覆。小心。投資者日見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Fitzgerald, TD.

    湯姆·菲茨杰拉德,TD。

  • Tom Fitzgerald - Analyst

    Tom Fitzgerald - Analyst

  • Sticking with the premium cabin for a little bit, would you mind just unpacking to some of the trends in the first half and outlook in the second half is among the different buckets like D1, Premium Select, domestic first class and Comfort plus, Pay load factors booking? Anything else notable you'd call out? Thanks.

    稍微堅持一下高級客艙,您介意簡單了解一下上半年的一些趨勢和下半年的展望嗎?您還有什麼值得注意的事情嗎?謝謝。

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • That's a loss. I think what we're very excited about this year is this is the first year that we have ubiquity and Delta Premium Select, and that program has exceeded our internal expectations with load factors in the mid-to high 80s and fare structures that are more than 2x what a coach fares are.

    那是一種損失。我認為今年我們非常興奮的是,這是我們普及達美航空高級精選計劃的第一年,該計劃超出了我們的內部預期,客座率達到80 多歲,票價結構也超過了80 多歲。

  • So really great margins. They're great margins continuing and D1 domestic first leading the pack in domestic industry. We're really excited to start rolling out DPS and the transcons this fall with all of our JFKLA for those of you who follow this industry, the largest revenue market in their country is JFKLA and having a full suite of products in their marketplace we think will be very accretive and we're out selling it now.

    所以利潤確實很大。他們持續保持著巨大的利潤率,並且D1國內第一,在國內行業中處於領先地位。我們非常高興今年秋天開始與我們所有的 JFKLA 一起為那些關注這個行業的人推出 DPS 和 transcons,他們國家最大的收入市場是 JFKLA,我們認為他們的市場上有全套產品將會非常增值,我們現在就出售它。

  • And September, October advances already looked very strong there. So I think continuing that elevation margins continue to be really in sequence with the best products continuing to have the highest margins in that main cabin coach having the lowest margins.

    9 月和 10 月的進展看起來已經非常強勁。因此,我認為繼續保持高度利潤確實是按順序進行的,最好的產品繼續擁有最高的利潤,而主客艙的利潤卻最低。

  • Tom Fitzgerald - Analyst

    Tom Fitzgerald - Analyst

  • That's definitely helpful. Thanks for that color, Glen.

    這絕對有幫助。謝謝你的顏色,格倫。

  • And then just quickly, if I may, one for Dan, how should we think of? And this is a topic for the whole industry, I think. But just how are you that the team thinking about the PSP loans resetting to a variable rate? I think it's [SOFR] plus two and 2025 and 2026 and just in the context of the broader deleveraging story. Thanks again for the time.

    然後很快,如果可以的話,給丹一個,我們該怎麼想?我認為這是整個行業的話題。但您的團隊如何考慮將 PSP 貸款重置為可變利率?我認為這是 [SOFR] 加 2、2025 年和 2026 年,而且只是在更廣泛的去槓桿化故事的背景下。再次感謝您抽出時間。

  • Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, as you know, we continue to focus on deleveraging. We've made a lot of progress since October 20, $24 billion of debt. So deleveraging will continue to be at the forefront. When you think about those particular traunches, our first one doesn't come due at April second quarter of next year. And then we have another tranche in first quarter and second quarter of 2026. We'll look at market conditions at that point in time where we are on short term rates versus long-term rates.

    是的,如你所知,我們繼續關注去槓桿化。自 10 月 20 日以來,我們已經取得了很大進展,債務達到 240 億美元。因此,去槓桿化仍將是首要任務。當你想到這些特定的部分時,我們的第一個部分不會在明年四月第二季到期。然後我們將在 2026 年第一季和第二季進行另一部分。

  • And whether that would be a long term part of the capital structure, it makes more sense to put in other types of debt and refi that out. And those will be things that we'll probably talk more about in detail at as we get closer, especially at Investor Day. But as we get to the end of the year in the beginning of next year.

    無論這是否會成為資本結構的長期組成部分,投入其他類型的債務並對其進行再融資更有意義。隨著時間的臨近,我們可能會更詳細地討論這些事情,特別是在投資者日。但明年初就到了年底。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Linenberg, Deutsche Bank.

    麥克林伯格,德意志銀行。

  • Mike Linenberg - Analyst

    Mike Linenberg - Analyst

  • I guess I had a question to Dan and even the team. You guys are very helpful when you guys call out where air traffic liability and how much it's up at least since your end. And I certainly think we're at a point a year where only the next few weeks that's going to shift the other way. And I think you can have a bit more pronounced for some of those who maybe having more scale in our northern hemisphere route network.

    我想我有一個問題要問丹甚至團隊。當你們指出空中交通責任在哪裡以及至少自你們結束以來增加了多少時,你們非常有幫助。我當然認為我們正處於一年中的某個時刻,只有接下來的幾週才會發生相反的變化。我認為對於那些在我們的北半球航線網絡中規模更大的人來說,可以有更明顯的影響。

  • When I think about, you know, maybe, Glen, can you talk about the extension of a transatlantic and authentic strength that you're paying now. It's deep South America and how that's going to improve in the back part ofthe air combined with corporate. How should we think about yourself air traffic liability and a half to be a much bigger hit to cash?

    當我想到時,你知道,也許,格倫,你能談談你現在正在付出的跨大西洋和真正的力量的延伸嗎?這是南美洲的深處,這將如何與企業結合來改善後部空氣。我們該如何看待自己的空中交通責任對現金造成更大的打擊?

  • And I still think for some carriers is going to be a bit of a wake-up call as we head into the back half of the year. But I think for you guys, like how should we think about it and maybe some of those measures that you’ve done to sort of mitigate? Thanks. I have a follow-up.

    我仍然認為,對於一些運營商來說,當我們進入今年下半年時,這將是一個警鐘。但我認為對你們來說,我們應該如何考慮這個問題,也許你們已經採取了一些緩解措施?謝謝。我有一個後續行動。

  • Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • First half. It is up there. You can see it is up $2.4 billion. It's up a few hundred million dollars over last year. Whereas it supports our revenue forecast for third quarter as you get into the back half of year, certainly the elongation of the year title season helps as it relates to balance that as you go through third quarter and fourth quarter. And also the fact that corporate continues to outgrow consumer, that is also bringing it back into what I' d say is more normalized curve as it relates to historical perspective.

    上半場。它就在那裡。你可以看到它增加了 24 億美元。比去年增加了數億美元。雖然它支持我們在進入下半年時對第三季的收入預測,但冠軍賽季的延長當然會有所幫助,因為它與第三季和第四季的平衡有關。事實上,企業的成長持續超過消費者的成長,這也使其回到了我所說的更正常化的曲線,因為它與歷史角度有關。

  • When you look at it year over year, you still got the oddity of last year, you had multiple years of travel candidate. So this is the first year that it's much cleaner as we go through credit, create a better base as you think about it for '24 and '25 and start to evaluate it.

    當你年復一年地回顧它時,你仍然會發現去年的奇怪之處,你有多年的旅行候選人。因此,這是第一年,當我們通過信貸時,它會更加乾淨,當你考慮“24”和“25”並開始評估它時,它會創造一個更好的基礎。

  • Great. And then just my second question on, I think Ed or Glen, you talked about you have capacity has been one of the first letters that we'll see -- . As we think about where they cut back and maybe certain airports in particular, there an opportunity maybe for you to pick up additional case base in some of your bigger airports And I think the CapEx coming back into potentially in Atlanta, Orlando opportunities where things are tight, you'll get additional real estate. Any thoughts on that? Thanks.

    偉大的。然後是我的第二個問題,我想艾德或格倫,你談到你有能力是我們看到的第一封信之一——。當我們考慮他們在哪些地方削減開支時,尤其是某些機場時,你可能有機會在一些較大的機場中獲得更多的案例庫,我認為資本支出可能會回到亞特蘭大、奧蘭多的機會,這些地方的情況是這樣的緊,你會得到額外的房地產。對此有什麼想法嗎?謝謝。

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Mike. This in all a concern that as we're always interested in serving underserved communities.

    謝謝,麥克。這是一個令人擔憂的問題,因為我們始終有興趣為服務不足的社區提供服務。

  • Mike Linenberg - Analyst

    Mike Linenberg - Analyst

  • Okay. Very good.

    好的。非常好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

    斯科特集團,沃爾夫研究。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • So we've talked a lot about just the overall industry capacity outlook, but I wanted to get a little bit of Delta color, right. So your capacity was up 8% in the second quarter. You're saying 5% to 6% in the third quarter. I guess any color you can share on your capacity plans entering 2025 just to help get the industry supply demand more imbalanced. Do you anticipate getting GDP or sub GDP type capacity growth? Or do you think as you plan for Delta specifically, do you think you stay above GDP?

    所以我們已經討論了很多關於整個產業產能前景的問題,但我想了解一點達美航空的色彩,對吧。因此,您的產能在第二季成長了 8%。你說的是第三季 5% 到 6%。我想您可以分享進入 2025 年產能計畫的任何顏色,只是為了幫助產業供應需求更加不平衡。您預期 GDP 或低於 GDP 類型的產能成長嗎?或者您認為,當您專門為達美航空制定計劃時,您是否認為自己會保持在 GDP 之上?

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • I think we're not going to give capacity growth for 2025 at this point. We've got a lot of runway left of this year. I would point out one thing that I think is really important that we ought to just note is that the difference between seats in ASMs and many of you work your models on ASMs, others work on seats. And I would think when you're looking within an entity, it's really the seat count is most important because we don't sell ASMs we sell seats.

    我認為目前我們不會給出 2025 年的產能成長情況。今年我們還有很多跑道。我想指出一件事,我認為非常重要,我們應該注意的是,ASM 中的席位之間的區別,你們中的許多人在 ASM 上工作模型,其他人在座位上工作。我認為,當你在一個實體內部尋找時,座位數確實是最重要的,因為我們不賣 ASM,我們銷售的是座位。

  • And when you think about our capacity growth, although it was a we only grew our seats at about five or less. So there's a stage length difference in our stage length . It is actually a little bit longer than we had in the plan because we saw some opportunities on some of the longer-haul flying as people restructure through the year.

    當你考慮我們的運力成長時,儘管我們的座位數只增加了大約五個或更少。所以我們的舞台長度是有舞台長度差異的。實際上,這個時間比我們的計劃要長一些,因為隨著全年人員重組,我們看到了一些長途飛行的機會。

  • So I call it back to let's not talk about ASMs. Let's talk about seats within theater. So I think that's a much better representation of what the industry is facing. And one, we are all key and on as we move forward and trying to figure out where the industry is going, so too early for '25 in terms of capacity, that will be clearly over the back half of the year. We will reveal more about that. But secondly , trying to think about seats as our measure domestically is what we're trying to sell.

    所以我回過頭來說說 ASM。我們來談談劇場內的座位。所以我認為這更好地代表了該行業所面臨的問題。第一,我們都是關鍵人物,我們不斷前進,試圖弄清楚產業的發展方向,所以就產能而言,25 年還為時過早,這顯然會在今年下半年發生。我們將透露更多相關資訊。但其次,我們試著將座位數作為我們在國內的衡量標準,這也是我們想要推銷的。

  • Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And the thing I'd add onto that line is that 80% of that demand has the capacity growth is going into our core hubs. And to Glen's point important point on seats as we get into the back half of this year fourth quarter is the first time we'll have our core hubs restored levels that they work from a seat perspective right at the start of this 2019--

    我要補充的是,80% 的需求成長將進入我們的核心樞紐。格倫指出,隨著我們進入今年第四季後半段,我們將首次讓我們的核心樞紐恢復到 2019 年初從座位角度來看的工作水平——

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • Still versus '19 we are the lease structure restored in terms of seats.

    與 19 年相比,我們在座位方面恢復了租賃結構。

  • Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • Okay. And then I just wanted to when I think about the guide, right, if I just take the midpoint of the Q3 guide and then the midpoint of the full year guide, it basically implies fourth quarter earnings, just the absolute earnings pretty similar with the third quarter, and that's pretty atypical rate. It's usually we usually see a step down. Any color on how to think about that dynamic this year? It might be different.

    好的。然後我只是想,當我考慮指南時,對吧,如果我只取第三季度指南的中點,然後是全年指南的中點,它基本上意味著第四季度的收益,只是絕對收益與第三季度,這是一個非常不典型的比率。通常我們通常會看到一個台階。對於如何看待今年的動態有什麼看法嗎?可能會有所不同。

  • Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, fourth quarter on last year was the only quarter we were down year over year. You also had very high fuel in the fourth quarter last year at $3. The current will have to see where that plays out, but the current board of that is much lower so you get that benefit. And I think it's also with regards to the components that Glen talked about is the inflection in unit revenue as you exit September moving positive and the elongated travel season and that strong international demand.

    是的,去年第四季是我們唯一同比下降的季度。去年第四季的燃油價格也非常高,為 3 美元。當前的情況必須看看效果如何,但當前的董事會要低得多,因此您可以獲得這種好處。我認為這也與格倫談到的組成部分有關,即單位收入的變化,因為九月結束時正向積極發展,旅行季節延長以及強勁的國際需求。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • Thank you, guys. Appreciate the time.

    感謝你們。珍惜時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

    希拉·卡哈奧格魯,杰弗里斯。

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

    Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

  • Maybe just taking the last two questions and putting it together, your Q4 guide and it's about wide. And how do you think about the industrial capacity issues? Does it get better, does it get more rationale? Or does it get worse from '25 of selling up delivery Cadence back?

    也許只是把最後兩個問題放在一起,你的第四季度指南,它是關於廣泛的。您如何看待產能問題?它是否變得更好,是否變得更合理?或者從 25 年出售交付 Cadence 回來後情況會變得更糟嗎?

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sheila? Hi. This is Ed. I just wanted to be clear, we haven't given explicit Q4 guide, so I appreciate your models driving us there. We still have our full year guide with a pretty wide ranges as you noted in there. You may recall last year at this time when things were really starting to look promising way up to our full year guide. And we've got punished a few months later as the fuel got worked against us. So we're confident we'll end up in a good point within the full year range. But I don't really want to get into trying to figure out what Q4 is here.

    希拉?你好。這是艾德。我只是想澄清一下,我們還沒有給出明確的第四季度指南,所以我很感謝你們的模型帶領我們到達那裡。正如您在其中指出的那樣,我們仍然有全年指南,範圍相當廣泛。您可能還記得去年的這個時候,從我們的全年指南來看,事情確實開始看起來很有希望。幾個月後,我們受到了懲罰,因為燃料對我們不利。因此,我們有信心最終在全年範圍內取得良好成績。但我真的不想試圖弄清楚第四季是什麼。

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

    Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

  • Can you maybe comment on how you think about Boeing delivering cadence improving next year and how that impacts the industry?

    您能否評論一下您對波音明年改進節奏的看法以及這對該行業有何影響?

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, as I mentioned, we are confident in our Airbus delivery stream. We have no Boeing aircraft coming over the next handful of years, I anticipate. I think it will take some time before Boeing gets their Cadence back. I know there are slowly starting to improve, and we'll see.

    嗯,正如我所提到的,我們對空中巴士的交付流程充滿信心。我預計,未來幾年我們將不會再有波音飛機出現。我認為波音公司需要一段時間才能恢復他們的 Cadence。我知道情況正在慢慢開始改善,我們拭目以待。

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

    Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

    杜安‧芬尼格沃斯 (Duane Pfennigwerth),Evercore ISI。

  • Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

    Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just to follow up on corporate travel into September and beyond. Can you remind us what the headwind was in the fourth quarter of last year from strikes in the auto and entertainment industries?

    嘿,謝謝。早安.只是為了跟進 9 月份及以後的商務旅行情況。您能否提醒我們去年第四季汽車和娛樂產​​業罷工帶來的阻力是什麼?

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • So if you recall, yes, we were heading into the writers strike rate of about this time last year, and we were in the auto and that really October timeframe at its peak. So that was I believe, at least we think that's about $100 million in terms of a headwind for source or a tailwind this year as we come into the fourth quarter.

    所以,如果你還記得的話,是的,去年這個時候我們正進入作家罷工率,我們正處於汽車行業,十月的時間框架正處於高峰。所以我相信,至少我們認為,當我們進入第四季時,今年的資源逆風或順風約為 1 億美元。

  • Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

    Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

  • Thanks. And Glen maybe just to stick with you, can you talk a little bit about your outlook for Transatlantic in 3Q overall, maybe overall, and ex-Paris any bookings commentary you could point to post the Olympics? Appreciate you taking the questions.

    謝謝。格倫也許只是想跟你說一下,你能談談你對跨大西洋航空第三季度整體(也許是整體)的展望,以及在巴黎奧運會後你可以指出的任何預訂評論嗎?感謝您提出問題。

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • Yeah, ex-Paris. We were positive. And so, you know, for those of you who follow my bet with and I lost my bet because Paris was a little bit bigger than we thought. So it's actually --

    是的,前巴黎。我們很積極。所以,你知道,對於那些關注我的賭注的人來說,我輸掉了賭注,因為巴黎比我們想像的要大一點。所以實際上是——

  • Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

    Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

  • I didn't want to remind you of it, but on the call, but I'm glad you brought it up --

    我不想提醒你這件事,但在電話中,我很高興你提起這件事——

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • -- as well as selling of expensive, so good for the Employee Care Fund . And so as we look at the past, the Olympics, we see a very robust fall demand for Transatlantic and we're too early to say that it's inflected positive yet because we have, but it could very well inflected positive. I would be disappointed if it didn't, but that's a personal opinion, not a guy -- an official guidance.

    ——還有賣貴的,對員工關懷基金有好處。因此,當我們回顧過去的奧運會時,我們看到跨大西洋航線的秋季需求非常強勁,我們現在說它已經產生積極影響還為時過早,因為我們已經做到了,但它很可能會產生積極影響。如果沒有,我會感到失望,但這是個人意見,而不是官方指導。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

    布蘭登·奧格倫斯基,巴克萊銀行。

  • Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

    Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question. Ed or Glen, if I can come back to Scott's first question, you know, thinking about things you can control, especially as margins are at your target yet. Ed, I know you talked a lot about industry capacity coming down into the fourth quarter, but maybe beyond your own capacity in the seats discussion, what are other levers you guys are pulling behind the scenes here to help drive improvement?

    感謝您提出我的問題。艾德或格倫,如果我能回到史考特的第一個問題,你知道,思考你可以控制的事情,特別是當利潤率尚未達到你的目標時。艾德,我知道您談論了很多關於第四季度行業產能的問題,但也許超出了您在席位討論中自己的能力,你們在幕後還有哪些其他槓桿來幫助推動改進?

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I think there's quite a bit of clearly as the demand set that we see in our specific customer base continues to look healthy. We're going to continue investing there. We've got a pretty robust set of new offerings coming in the premium space in WiFi is going to be free and fast and fully available and largely available on the transatlantic by the end of this summer, which is a big deal for us.

    嗯,我認為很明顯,我們在特定客戶群中看到的需求集仍然看起來很健康。我們將繼續在那裡投資。我們在WiFi 的高端領域推出了一系列相當強大的新產品,這些產品將是免費、快速且完全可用的,並且到今年夏天末將在跨大西洋上大部分可用,這對我們來說是一件大事。

  • On the cost side, we had really good cost performance in the first half of the year. I anticipate that we're going to continue to hold that. I realize the third quarter guys that touch larger than what we saw in Q2, but we're going to work hard to get that back down. I think we've all talked about the opportunity this year on the cost front to continue to grow into our larger head count. We're not there yet. We still have more growth opportunities to get there.

    從成本方面來說,上半年我們的性價比非常好。我預計我們將繼續堅持這一點。我意識到第三季的表現比我們在第二季度看到的要大,但我們將努力恢復這一點。我想我們都討論過今年在成本方面的機會,以繼續擴大我們的員工數量。我們還沒到那兒。我們仍然有更多的成長機會來實現這一目標。

  • So I think across the board, Brandon we have we have opportunities waiting the industry to fix itself is that was the case we wouldn't be delivering the outstanding level of profitability that we are. And but we hope that's going to be another tailwind for Delta.

    因此,我認為,布蘭登,總的來說,我們有機會等待行業自我修復,否則我們將無法提供出色的盈利水平。但我們希望這將成為達美航空的另一個推動力。

  • Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

    Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

  • I appreciate that response. And maybe, Dan, as a follow-up, can you talk about headcount trends into next year? And if you're seeing efficiencies that, you know, as you restore your core hubs?

    我很欣賞這個回應。也許,丹,作為後續行動,你能談談明年的員工人數趨勢嗎?如果您在恢復核心樞紐時看到了效率提升?

  • Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, we are. And this year alone, we will have headcount that will grow -- our resources will grow just under 2% while we're growing in network and mid-single digits. And I think and that's been the case even versus the trailing 12 months were up only 3% on our resources versus the growth that we've demonstrated. And I think that and delivered. So I think that is kind of the leading edge of us the step here for a few steps here of us growing back into those resources and those capabilities.

    是的我們是。光是今年,我們的員工人數就會成長——我們的資源將成長略低於 2%,而我們的網路和中個位數成長。我認為,即使與我們所展示的成長相比,過去 12 個月我們的資源僅成長了 3%,情況也是如此。我這樣認為並交付了。所以我認為這是我們的領先優勢,我們在這裡邁出了幾步,讓我們重新獲得這些資源和能力。

  • And it's just not people, right. It's the aircraft in the utilization of aircraft. It's growing into the airports in the investment that we made on always reminds me of the most expensive days the first day that you open it. So it's across the board.

    這不是人,對吧。這是飛機使用上的飛機。我們對它的投資正在向機場發展,這總是讓我想起開業第一天最昂貴的日子。所以這是全面的。

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • One other thing, Brandon it is that, again, don't lose sight of the free cash were throwing off. This year will fall through of between $3 billion and $4 billion. I'm confident in that in that guide, which we gave at the start of the year, I expect at least as good next year, again. Compounded effect of all that cash that we're continuing to de-lever the balance sheet is once again going to differentiate Delta within this industry.

    布蘭登,另一件事是,再次強調,不要忽視我們所浪費的免費現金。今年將減少 30 億至 40 億美元。我對我們在今年年初提供的指南充滿信心,我預計明年至少會一樣好。我們繼續去槓桿化資產負債表的所有現金的複合效應將再次使達美航空在這個行業中脫穎而出。

  • Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

    Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

  • Thank you both.

    謝謝你們倆。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

    拉維‧尚克,摩根士丹利。

  • Ravi Shanker - Analyst

    Ravi Shanker - Analyst

  • I just want to follow up a couple of follow-ups here. One is on the international commentary you guys, as I said, a couple of ancillary international is looking pretty strong through the fall. Is that just in a spillover or like out from the air pocket for the Olympics spreading to other periods? Are you seeing an acceleration there? And any particular geographies is going to unpack that'd be great.

    我只想在這裡跟進一些後續行動。一個是關於國際評論,正如我所說,一些輔助國際球員在整個秋天看起來都相當強勁。這只是一種溢出效應還是就像奧運從空氣中傳播到其他時期一樣?你看到那裡有加速嗎?任何特定的地理位置都會很好地解決這個問題。

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • I think generally, we see the season extending as a whole group of people, whether or not it's retirees, whether or not it's a people with double incomes and without children who don't have the school concerns is actually a better time to go to Europe in September and October than it is potentially in July and August when the weather was so hot and everything it so packed. So we are really seeing an extension into September and October, and it really into through November that European demand across the board is remaining strong. So that's very exciting for us.

    我認為總的來說,我們看到這個季節作為一個整體的人群而延長,無論是不是退休人員,無論是雙收入的人,還是沒有孩子、沒有學校問題的人,實際上都是一個更好的時間去九月和十月的歐洲比七月和八月的情況要好,當時的天氣非常炎熱,一切都如此擁擠。因此,我們確實看到了延長到 9 月和 10 月的情況,而且一直到 11 月,歐洲的整體需求仍然保持強勁。這對我們來說非常令人興奮。

  • The same thing is happening in the leisure markets in the Pacific. Interestingly, you know, Japan has turned into a US point of sale leisure market with the yen hitting at [160]. So we have a really record numbers of US tours heading to Japan, which is such a great destination. And that again, that has a very strong fall season. So really looking at US origin higher and leisure, extending the system through October and into November.

    同樣的事情也發生在太平洋地區的休閒市場。有趣的是,你知道,日本已經變成了美國的銷售點休閒市場,日圓匯率觸及[160]。因此,前往日本的美國遊客數量創下了歷史新高,日本是一個很棒的目的地。再說一次,秋天的表現非常強勁。因此,真正著眼於美國的高端和休閒,將該系統延長至 10 月至 11 月。

  • Ravi Shanker - Analyst

    Ravi Shanker - Analyst

  • Understood. That's great color. And maybe a follow-up on the previous discussion on the premiumization of the industry can have as the lower cost carriers push towards premium. I just wanted to clarify your comments. Are you saying that there's more opportunity for you guys to push up kind of as the bottom comes out and do you have a sense of how high you can go on these those as I'm concerned that now as others premiumize, there's going to be more competition for a fixed set of premium demands? How do you see that playing out?

    明白了。那顏色真棒。隨著低成本航空公司向高端化邁進,也許可以對先前有關行業高端化的討論進行後續討論。我只是想澄清你的評論。你是說,當底部出現時,你們有更多的機會向上推,你是否知道你可以在這些上走多高,因為我擔心現在隨著其他人的溢價,將會有對一組固定的溢價需求的更多競爭?您如何看待這種情況?

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I think it's both. We have and we continue to have to have opportunities to grow premium. Premiums growing double digit for us, and we don't see that slowing down. So Delta on its own right continues to grow there. And what will happen is as others, if they do choose to continue to upgrade their products, it's going to force them also upgrade their price points, which will help our main cabin revenues as well.

    嗯,我認為兩者都是。我們已經並且將繼續有機會增加溢價。我們的保費成長了兩位數,而且我們認為這種成長不會放緩。因此,達美航空憑藉自身力量繼續在那裡發展。將會發生的情況是,和其他人一樣,如果他們確實選擇繼續升級他們的產品,這將迫使他們也升級他們的價格點,這也將有助於我們的主艙收入。

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • That was the point I think we should continue to reinforce is when you take away revenue streams, you have to replace them with other revenue streams. And so as the ULCCs look to make their products more value, they have to increase their base fares just to remain constant in terms of revenue. And I think that is maybe I missed point here, is that's actually good for the industry.

    我認為我們應該繼續強調的一點是,當你拿走收入流時,你必須用其他收入流取代它們。因此,當 ULCC 希望提高產品價值時,他們必須提高基本票價才能維持收入穩定。我認為這可能是我錯過的一點,這實際上對行業有利。

  • Ravi Shanker - Analyst

    Ravi Shanker - Analyst

  • Very helpful. Thank you.

    很有幫助。謝謝。

  • Julie Stewart Stewart - Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development

    Julie Stewart Stewart - Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development

  • We'll now go to the final analyst Q&A.

    我們現在進入最後的分析師問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Didora, Bank of America.

    安德魯·迪多拉,美國銀行。

  • Andrew Didora - Analyst

    Andrew Didora - Analyst

  • Thanks for squeezing me in here. I mean, Dan, helpful commentary on the 2% fleet growth this year. And I know you aren't prepared to give the 2025 capacity growth now. But can you maybe help us think about the 2025 fleet seat growth based on wondering you see deliveries and expected retirements over the next 18 months?

    謝謝你把我擠在這裡。 Dan,我的意思是,對今年 2% 的機隊成長做出了有益的評論。我知道你們現在還沒準備好給出 2025 年的產能成長。但是,您能否幫助我們考慮 2025 年機隊座位數的增長,基於您對未來 18 個月內的交付量和預期退役情況的了解?

  • Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. Thank you. It will take at about 40 deliveries this year, as I mentioned, give, or take one or two and how it falls out on average. When you look forward into next year, it's around 50 were right in that 40 to 50 range associated with that. And you're going to continue to see a steady drumbeat of retirements of probably in the mid-20s as we go through 2025.

    是的。謝謝。正如我所提到的,今年將需要大約 40 次交付,給予或拿走一兩次,以及平均結果如何。當你展望明年時,大約有 50 個正好處於與此相關的 40 到 50 個範圍內。到 2025 年,你將繼續看到 20 多歲左右的人穩定退休。

  • We'll finalize that as we get through our final plan and tweak that guards to what it is. But it's just an older fleet, right? The seven fives, starting to see some of the seven sixes, and the 320s. And as we've all talked about those as we've been trying to grow , we haven't been able to retire at what we're used to. This is first time we're actually means, thankfully, retiring aircraft over the last two to three years.

    當我們完成最終計劃並調整防護措施後,我們將最終確定這一點。但這只是一支較舊的艦隊,對吧?七個五,開始看到一些七個六,以及 320。正如我們在努力成長時都討論過的那樣,我們無法按照我們習慣的方式退休。值得慶幸的是,這是我們在過去兩三年裡第一次真正讓飛機退役。

  • And that then benefits us right. Because that then is a materials stream back into our tech ops operation, maintenance operations that can use that material and take improve efficiency, which they've been so good at through the years when you look at the last decade.

    這對我們來說是有好處的。因為這是一種材料流回到我們的技術營運營運、維護營運中,可以使用該材料並提高效率,當你回顧過去十年時,他們多年來一直非常擅長這一點。

  • Andrew Didora - Analyst

    Andrew Didora - Analyst

  • Got it. That's actually very helpful.

    知道了。這實際上非常有幫助。

  • Just as my follow up count and I know you mentioned on the last call that you felt like you still have more depth in your comfortable with. Is there any framework you can -- you have align in terms of -- just give us a sense of how you think about a proper level of debt that gets you to a much more comfortable place. Thank you.

    正如我的跟進計數一樣,我知道您在上次通話中提到您覺得自己仍然有更多的深度。是否有任何框架可以讓我們了解您如何看待適當的債務水平,從而讓您進入一個更舒適的地方。謝謝。

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Andrew, I think that's a perfect question for November. We will answer that at that time.

    安德魯,我認為這是 11 月的完美問題。屆時我們將予以答覆。

  • Andrew Didora - Analyst

    Andrew Didora - Analyst

  • That's great. Thank you.

    那太棒了。謝謝。

  • Julie Stewart Stewart - Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development

    Julie Stewart Stewart - Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development

  • That will wrap up the analyst portion of the call. I'll now turn it over to 10 minutes to start the media question.

    這將結束電話會議的分析師部分。現在我將把時間延長到 10 分鐘來開始媒體提問。

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Julie. Matthew, if you don't mind as we transition from the analysts to the meeting members of the media, if you could please repeat just the instructions for getting into the call queue, please?

    謝謝你,朱莉。馬修,如果您不介意我們從分析師過渡到媒體會議成員,請您重複進入通話隊列的說明,好嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Leslie Josephs from CNBC.

    CNBC 的萊斯利·約瑟夫斯。

  • Leslie Josephs - Media

    Leslie Josephs - Media

  • Just a couple questions for premium economy. Are you seeing most travelers by that at the onset of the outside of their on their bookings? Are they doing high apps after and if that's still the most popular part, profitable part of the cabin? And then on WiFi, when do you expect the entire mainline fleet to have the faster free WiFi for SkyMiles members? Thanks.

    關於豪華經濟艙的幾個問題。您是否看到大多數旅客在預訂時都這樣做了?如果這仍然是機艙中最受歡迎的部分、最有利可圖的部分,他們是否會在之後做一些高級應用程式?那麼在 WiFi 方面,您預計什麼時候整個乾線機隊能夠為「飛凡哩程常客計畫」會員提供更快的免費 WiFi?謝謝。

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • So what is the question was on Delta Premium select?

    那麼達美高級經濟艙精選的問題是什麼?

  • Leslie Josephs - Media

    Leslie Josephs - Media

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • Premium economy, we're just Premium select. So that is mostly being bought like all of our products at initial purchase. And as you know, we designed that to be flexible system, all forms of including miles as the upgrade for people whose companies might not allow them to buy and those that they could use their miles to upgrade into those. But still over 80% come at initial booking.

    高級經濟艙,我們只是高級精選。因此,這主要是像我們所有的產品一樣在初次購買時購買的。如您所知,我們將其設計為靈活的系統,所有形式都包括里程作為升級,適用於那些公司可能不允許他們購買的人以及那些可以使用里程升級的人。但仍有超過 80% 是在初次預訂時進行的。

  • Leslie Josephs - Media

    Leslie Josephs - Media

  • And probably the most profitable Cadence?

    也許是最賺錢的 Cadence?

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • Delta Premium Select, I think in terms of profitability, it is the third most profitable, right? Our Delta One of the most profitable, it really goes down domestic First Amendment Delta Premium Select. So really in terms of the hierarchy, the more premium product, the higher the margin.

    Delta Premium Select,我認為就盈利能力而言,它是第三高盈利的,對吧?我們達美最賺錢的一個,真的是走國內第一修正案達美高級精選。因此,實際上從層次結構來看,產品越優質,利潤就越高。

  • Leslie Josephs - Media

    Leslie Josephs - Media

  • Okay. Delta One first class domestic and then premium select on all roofs.

    好的。達美一號國內艙為頭等艙,所有車頂均提供高級精選艙。

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And Leslie, the WiFi question, we are continuing to roll it out, making good progress. Focus rate at the moment is getting our international fleet equipped we will have largely the transatlantic pretty well, fully up and running by the end of the summer over the next couple of months. And our remaining focus after that is getting the regionals as well as our remaining domestic aircraft, which is principally the 717 fleet up and running over the next 12 to 18 months. So we're getting there. Certainly on a passenger count level were well over 50% at the present time.

    Leslie,關於 WiFi 問題,我們正在繼續推出,並取得了良好進展。目前的重點是為我們的國際車隊配備裝備,在接下來的幾個月裡,我們將在夏末之前在很大程度上使跨大西洋航線完全啟動並運行。此後我們剩下的重點是讓支線飛機以及我們剩餘的國內飛機(主要是 717 機隊)在未來 12 到 18 個月內投入運作。所以我們正在實現目標。當然,目前乘客數遠超 50%。

  • Leslie Josephs - Media

    Leslie Josephs - Media

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Mary Schlangenstein, Bloomberg News.

    瑪麗‧施蘭根斯坦,彭博新聞。

  • Mary Schlangenstein - Media

    Mary Schlangenstein - Media

  • I wanted to see if you could just give us a little bit more detail on the Japan situation that you mentioned that just primarily leisure or what is your business travel looking like between the US and Japan as well?

    我想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關您提到的日本情況的更多詳細信息,主要是休閒,或者您在美國和日本之間的商務旅行是什麼樣的?

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • US and Japan business is quite strong. It has been for us since the end of the pandemic. And what we've seen is really a new Japan as a destination market. I think when the end was '83 was very difficult to be able to afford to go see Japan and all the great things that Japan has to offer with the unit 160, it's a very good world for US travelers and they seem to be a great advantage of that.

    美國和日本的業務相當強勁。自大流行結束以來,我們一直如此。我們所看到的確實是一個新的日本作為目的地市場。我認為在83 年底的時候,很難負擔得起去日本旅遊的費用,而且日本160 提供的所有很棒的東西,對於美國旅行者來說,這是一個非常美好的世界,他們似乎是一個偉大的國家。

  • Mary Schlangenstein - Media

    Mary Schlangenstein - Media

  • And what about on the business side?

    那麼在商業方面呢?

  • Glen Hauenstein - President

    Glen Hauenstein - President

  • Business continues to remain strong.

    業務持續保持強勁。

  • Mary Schlangenstein - Media

    Mary Schlangenstein - Media

  • Okay. Another question I had we haven't talked for some time about the refinery and whether you're still in any sort of discussions to develop a partnership or sell the refinery. Can you give us an update on that?

    好的。我的另一個問題是,我們已經有一段時間沒有談論煉油廠了,以及你們是否仍在就建立合作夥伴關係或出售煉油廠進行任何形式的討論。能為我們介紹一下最新情況嗎?

  • Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Daniel Janki - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • We're not the refinery has been running very well. The team's doing a great job. The key part of Delta.

    我們的煉油廠一直運作得很好。團隊做得很好。 Delta的關鍵部分。

  • Mary Schlangenstein - Media

    Mary Schlangenstein - Media

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Edward Bastian - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Mary. With that math, you were right at the. Our will conclude the call.

    謝謝你,瑪麗。有了這個數學,你就對了。我們將結束通話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation today.

    謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您今天的參與。