Comerica Inc (CMA) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the 2023 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Director of Investor Relations, Kelly Gage. Please go ahead.

女士們先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議轉交給東道主投資者關係總監凱利·蓋奇 (Kelly Gage)。請繼續。

Thanks, Greg. Good morning, and welcome to Comerica's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman and CEO, Curt Farmer; Chief Financial Officer, Jim Herzog; Chief Credit Officer, Melinda Chausse; and Chief Banking Officer, Peter Sefzik.

謝謝，格雷格。早上好，歡迎參加 Comerica 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。參加本次電話會議的包括我們的總裁、董事長兼首席執行官 Curt Farmer；首席財務官吉姆·赫爾佐格；首席信貸官 Melinda Chausse；和首席銀行官 Peter Sefzik。

During this presentation, we will be referring to slides, which provide additional details. The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC's website as well as in the Investor Relations section of our website, comerica.com.

在本次演示中，我們將參考幻燈片，其中提供了更多詳細信息。演示幻燈片和我們的新聞稿可在 SEC 網站以及我們網站 comerica.com 的投資者關係部分獲取。

This conference call contains forward-looking statements. In that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially from expectations. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。在這方面，您應該注意可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。前瞻性陳述僅代表截至本演示文稿發布之日的情況，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Please refer to the safe harbor statement in today's earnings release on Slide 2, which is incorporated into this call, as well as our SEC filings for factors that can cause actual results to differ. Also, this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures. And in that regard, I direct you to the reconciliation of these measures in earnings materials that are available on the website, comerica.com.

請參閱今天幻燈片 2 上的收益發布中的安全港聲明（該聲明已納入本次電話會議），以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件，了解可能導致實際結果不同的因素。此外，本次電話會議還將參考非公認會計準則衡量標準。在這方面，我將指導您在 comerica.com 網站上的收益材料中對這些措施進行核對。

Now I'll turn the call over to Curt, who will begin on Slide 3.

現在我將把電話轉給 Curt，他將從幻燈片 3 開始。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Today, we reported second quarter earnings of $273 million or $2.01 per share. Average loans grew to $55.4 billion, and a continued focus on fee income helped drive our second-highest noninterest income quarter in our history. Expenses declined and our disciplined approach to credit produced a third consecutive quarter of net recovery.

大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的通話。今天，我們報告第二季度收益為 2.73 億美元，即每股收益 2.01 美元。平均貸款增至 554 億美元，對費用收入的持續關注幫助我們實現了歷史上第二高的非利息收入季度。費用下降，我們嚴格的信貸方法實現了連續第三個季度的淨復甦。

Beyond our compelling financial results, we have launched a transformational expansion and support for small businesses. In the second quarter, we introduced tailored products designed to improve access in capital and enhance cash management capabilities for these important customers while also providing access to valuable business insights and resources. Coupled with our recognized SBA achievements, we believe we are well-positioned to be a leading bank for small business, providing the tools they needed to achieve their goals.

除了令人矚目的財務業績之外，我們還啟動了對小型企業的轉型擴張和支持。在第二季度，我們推出了定制產品，旨在改善這些重要客戶的資本獲取並增強現金管理能力，同時還提供寶貴的業務見解和資源。加上我們公認的 SBA 成就，我們相信我們有能力成為小型企業的領先銀行，為他們提供實現目標所需的工具。

Our emphasis on supporting small business is an important part of our overall commitment to communities. You can read more about our other community and sustainability efforts in our 2022 corporate responsibility report that was recently published on comerica.com.

我們對支持小型企業的重視是我們對社區整體承諾的重要組成部分。您可以在 comerica.com 最近發布的 2022 年企業責任報告中詳細了解我們的其他社區和可持續發展工作。

Our Southeast and Mountain West expansionary investments continued to perform well as our bankers were active in the market, adding new relationships and building pipeline. Strong relative economic trends in these regions, coupled with the prevalence of target customer base could create opportunity for continued growth over time.

我們的東南部和西部山區的擴張性投資繼續表現良好，因為我們的銀行家活躍於市場，增加了新的關係並建立了管道。這些地區強勁的相對經濟趨勢，加上目標客戶群的普遍性，可能會隨著時間的推移創造持續增長的機會。

Moving to the summary of our results on Slide 4. Average loans grew $1.9 billion. Average deposits decreased $3.5 billion due to customer diversification efforts related to industry disruption in the first quarter and the ongoing impact of Fed monetary actions. We saw increased stabilization in both interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing deposits through the second half of the quarter, and we believe diversification efforts are largely behind us. As we expected, net interest income declined as we saw the full impact of first quarter deposit flows and funding activity.

轉到幻燈片 4 上的結果摘要。平均貸款增長了 19 億美元。由於第一季度行業混亂以及美聯儲貨幣行動的持續影響，客戶多元化努力導致平均存款減少 35 億美元。我們看到本季度下半年有息存款和無息存款都更加穩定，我們相信多元化的努力基本上已經過去了。正如我們預期的那樣，隨著我們看到第一季度存款流動和融資活動的全面影響，淨利息收入下降。

Credit quality outperformed with another quarter of net recovery and our criticized loan percentage remained below our historical average. Noninterest income was near record levels and expenses declined. Profitability improved in our already solid capital position as we generated an estimated CET1 ratio 10.31% above our strategic target. In all, it was a strong quarter for Comerica, and I will now turn the call over to Jim, who will review our results in more detail.

信貸質量表現出色，淨復甦又一個季度，而我們受到批評的貸款百分比仍低於歷史平均水平。非利息收入接近歷史最高水平，支出下降。我們本已穩固的資本狀況的盈利能力得到改善，預計 CET1 比率比我們的戰略目標高出 10.31%。總而言之，對於聯信來說，這是一個強勁的季度，我現在將把電話轉給吉姆，他將更詳細地審查我們的業績。

Thanks, Curt, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 5. Loan growth came in just above expectations as average balances increased 4% from the first quarter. Increased selectivity drove a slight decline in commitments and utilization increased almost 1% but remain below historical averages. Growth in our commercial real estate business of over $520 million continued to be driven largely by construction of multifamily and industrial projects originated over the last 2 years in addition to the slower pace of payoffs. Recent origination activity and pipeline have significantly declined. Our commercial real estate strategy remains highly selective with a focus on Class A projects and our office exposure is intentionally limited.

謝謝，柯特，大家早上好。轉向幻燈片 5。貸款增長略高於預期，平均餘額較第一季度增長 4%。選擇性的增加導致承諾量略有下降，利用率增加了近 1%，但仍低於歷史平均水平。我們的商業房地產業務增長超過 5.2 億美元，這主要是由於過去 2 年多戶住宅和工業項目的建設以及回報速度放緩所推動的。最近的發起活動和管道已顯著下降。我們的商業房地產策略仍然高度選擇性，重點關注甲級項目，並且有意限制我們的寫字樓曝光。

Large corporate loans grew $447 million as we won new customer relationships and financed acquisitions for existing customers. National Dealer Services benefited from new customer acquisition and while our floor plan inventories continue to grow, they remain below pre-pandemic levels. Typical second quarter seasonality resulted in a $325 million increase in average mortgage banker finance loans. However, consistent with our strategic exit of that business, we expect most of our mortgage banker balances to be paid off by the end of 2023.

由於我們贏得了新客戶關係並為現有客戶的收購提供融資，大型企業貸款增長了 4.47 億美元。全國經銷商服務受益於新客戶的獲取，雖然我們的平面圖庫存繼續增長，但仍低於大流行前的水平。典型的第二季度季節性因素導致抵押貸款銀行家融資貸款平均增加 3.25 億美元。然而，根據我們對該業務的戰略退出，我們預計大部分抵押貸款銀行餘額將在 2023 年底前還清。

Slide 6 provides an overview of our deposit activity for the quarter. Average deposit balances declined 5%, in line with expectations. Conversations pivoted away from banking industry stability as customers refocused on broader macroeconomic issues such as risk of recession and elevated rates. Throughout the quarter, customer deposit balances continue to normalize, and we observed relatively stable trends since mid-May.

幻燈片 6 概述了我們本季度的存款活動。平均存款餘額下降 5%，符合預期。隨著客戶重新關注衰退風險和利率上升等更廣泛的宏觀經濟問題，對話的焦點不再是銀行業的穩定性。整個季度，客戶存款餘額繼續正常化，我們觀察到5月中旬以來的相對穩定的趨勢。

Industry funding pressures drove deposit competition and interest-bearing deposit costs increased to 237 basis points. However, we feel our dynamic pricing strategy and relationship approach allowed us to maintain our forecasted deposit betas and protect balances. While the rate environment further pressured noninterest-bearing deposits, we continue to view our deposit mix as a competitive advantage, providing a more stable and cost-effective funding source than our peers.

行業資金壓力推動存款競爭，計息存款成本上升至237個基點。然而，我們認為我們的動態定價策略和關係方法使我們能夠維持預測的存款貝塔值並保護餘額。儘管利率環境進一步給無息存款帶來壓力，但我們繼續將我們的存款組合視為競爭優勢，提供比同行更穩定、更具成本效益的資金來源。

With strategic investments underway to enhance payments and other treasury management products, in addition to our national small business banking strategy, we see opportunities to further improve our attractive deposit profile over time.

除了我們的國家小企業銀行戰略之外，隨著旨在增強支付和其他資金管理產品的戰略投資正在進行，我們看到了隨著時間的推移進一步改善我們有吸引力的存款狀況的機會。

As shown on Slide 7, our strong liquidity position provided flexibility. We maintained excess cash, repaid maturing FHLB advances and our remaining liquidity capacity increased. Our quarter-end loan-to-deposit ratio was 84%, still below our 15-year average and strategic actions announced in the second quarter are expected to keep that ratio in the mid-80s at year-end 2023. Cash balances at the holding company position us to repay our $850 million debt due this summer and very light remaining unsecured funding maturities create flexibility to manage funding needs and cash levels over time.

如幻燈片 7 所示，我們強大的流動性狀況提供了靈活性。我們保持了過剩的現金，償還了到期的 FHLB 預付款，並且我們的剩餘流動性能力有所增加。我們的季末貸存比率為 84%，仍低於 15 年平均水平，第二季度宣布的戰略行動預計到 2023 年年底，該比率將保持在 80 多歲。控股公司的現金餘額使我們能夠償還今年夏天到期的 8.5 億美元債務，而且剩餘的無擔保融資期限很短，為管理一段時間內的資金需求和現金水平創造了靈活性。

Period-end balances in our securities portfolio on Slide 8 declined almost $900 million with paydowns, maturities and a $212 million negative mark-to-market adjustment. Our security strategy remains unchanged as we stop reinvesting in the third quarter of 2022, and we maintain our entire portfolio as available for sale, providing full transparency and management flexibility. Although we have modest treasury maturities through the end of the year, larger scheduled repayments in 2024 and '25, are projected to benefit liquidity, profitability and our unrealized losses within AOCI.

由於還款、到期和按市值計價的 2.12 億美元負調整，幻燈片 8 中我們的證券投資組合的期末餘額減少了近 9 億美元。我們的安全策略保持不變，因為我們在 2022 年第三季度停止再投資，並且我們維持整個投資組合可供出售，提供完全的透明度和管理靈活性。儘管到今年年底我們的國債到期期限不大，但預計 2024 年和 25 年計劃的較大還款將有利於流動性、盈利能力和 AOCI 內的未實現損失。

Altogether, we expect a 34% improvement in unrealized securities losses over the next 2 years. As our portfolio is pledged to enhance our liquidity position, we do not anticipate any need to sell securities, and therefore, unrealized losses should not impact income.

總的來說，我們預計未來兩年未實現證券損失將減少 34%。由於我們的投資組合承諾增強我們的流動性狀況，因此我們預計不需要出售證券，因此，未實現的損失不應影響收入。

Turning to Slide 9. Net interest income decreased $87 million to $621 million, in line with expectations as the benefit of loan volume in 1 more day were offset by the impact of wholesale funding, lower deposit balances, a shift in deposit mix and deposit pricing. A significant portion of the funding and deposit activity occurred late in the first quarter so results reflect a full quarter impact of those actions. With our strategic management of our asset sensitivity position, the impact of rates was nominal.

轉向幻燈片 9。淨利息收入減少 8700 萬美元，至 6.21 億美元，符合預期，因為多一天的貸款量收益被批發融資、存款餘額下降、存款結構變化和存款定價的影響所抵消。很大一部分融資和存款活動發生在第一季度末，因此結果反映了這些行動對整個季度的影響。通過我們對資產敏感性頭寸的戰略管理，利率的影響微乎其微。

As shown on Slide 10, successful execution of our interest rate strategy and the current composition of our balance sheet favorably position us with minimal negative exposure to a gradual 100 basis points or 50 basis points on average decline in interest rates. By strategically managing our swap and securities portfolios, while considering balance sheet dynamics, we intend to maintain our insulated position over time.

如幻燈片 10 所示，我們的利率策略的成功執行和資產負債表的當前構成使我們能夠將利率平均逐漸下降 100 個基點或 50 個基點的負面風險降至最低。通過戰略性地管理我們的掉期和證券投資組合，同時考慮資產負債表的動態，我們打算隨著時間的推移保持我們的絕緣頭寸。

Our proven discipline produced another quarter of excellent credit quality as highlighted on Slide 11. Once again, we posted net recoveries, although we do not project this trend to continue. Modest migration drove an increase in criticized loans. However, at under 4% of total loans, they remain well below historical averages. Nonaccrual loans declined and inflows to nonaccruals remained low at $17 million. Migration loan growth and a continued weak economic outlook drove the $33 million provision expense and the allowance for credit losses increased to 1.31%. Given the environment, we increased oversight in portfolios with greater relative exposure to elevated rates such as leveraged loans and our commercial real estate business. However, we remain very comfortable with these portfolio metrics and expect continued migration to be manageable.

正如幻燈片 11 所強調的那樣，我們經過驗證的紀律又創造了一個季度的優良信貸質量。我們再次發布了淨回收率，儘管我們預計這種趨勢不會持續下去。適度的移民導致了批評貸款的增加。然而，其占貸款總額的比例不到 4%，仍遠低於歷史平均水平。非應計貸款下降，非應計貸款流入仍保持在 1,700 萬美元的低水平。移民貸款增長和持續疲弱的經濟前景導致撥備費用為 3,300 萬美元，信貸損失準備金增加至 1.31%。鑑於這種環境，我們加強了對槓桿貸款和商業房地產業務等相對較高利率風險敞口的投資組合的監管。然而，我們對這些投資組合指標仍然非常滿意，並預計持續遷移是可控的。

Noninterest income on Slide 12, continues to outperform, growing $21 million from an already strong first quarter. Noncustomer income contributed to results with increases in FHLB dividends and BOLI in addition to customer-related growth in fiduciary and card. Although not shown as a variance to prior quarter, capital markets exceeded expectations as we repeated strong first quarter results. Risk management income related to our hedging strategy saw a modest decrease and should continue to vary based on the rate environment. While noncustomer income can be hard to predict, we expect our strategic investments in products and services to drive further growth in capital-efficient fee income over time. We remain excited about the results of these efforts to date.

幻燈片 12 上的非利息收入繼續跑贏大市，較本已強勁的第一季度增長了 2100 萬美元。除了與客戶相關的信託和信用卡業務增長之外，非客戶收入還對 FHLB 股息和 BOLI 的增長做出了貢獻。儘管沒有顯示出與上一季度的差異，但資本市場超出了預期，因為我們重申了第一季度的強勁業績。與我們的對沖策略相關的風險管理收入略有下降，並應繼續根據利率環境而變化。雖然非客戶收入可能難以預測，但我們預計我們對產品和服務的戰略投資將隨著時間的推移推動資本效率較高的費用收入進一步增長。我們對迄今為止這些努力的成果仍然感到興奮。

[Noninterest] expenses on Slide 13, declined $16 million, in line with expectations. Quarter-over-quarter expenses benefited from several large first quarter items that did not recur, netted $2 million related to the Ameriprise transition, a favorable state tax refund and a real estate asset write-down. Seasonally lower salaries and benefits expense and other noninterest expenses were partially offset by increased outside processing, FDIC insurance and software costs. Modernization efforts remained on track as we incurred a total of $7 million in expenses, advancing our wealth management, corporate facilities, technology and retail strategies. We continue to selectively prioritize strategic investments designed to further enhance our financial results, while remaining committed to prudently managing expenses commensurate with our earnings power.

第 13 張幻燈片的[非利息]支出減少了 1600 萬美元，符合預期。季度環比支出得益於第一季度幾項未重複發生的大型項目，與 Ameriprise 過渡、有利的州退稅和房地產資產減記相關的淨收入為 200 萬美元。季節性較低的工資和福利費用以及其他非利息費用被外部處理、FDIC 保險和軟件成本的增加部分抵消。現代化工作仍在順利進行，我們總共支出了 700 萬美元，推進了我們的財富管理、企業設施、技術和零售戰略。我們繼續有選擇地優先考慮旨在進一步提高財務業績的戰略投資，同時繼續致力於審慎管理與我們的盈利能力相稱的費用。

Slide 14 highlights our strong capital position. With share buybacks pause, capital generation from profitability outpaced loan growth, driving our estimated CET1 further above our target to 10.31%. Strategic actions, including the exit of Mortgage Banker Finance and increased selectivity across the rest of the portfolio, are expected to elevate capital ratios through the end of this year. Higher rates increased unrealized losses in our securities and swap portfolios, reducing our tangible common equity ratio to 5.06%.

幻燈片 14 凸顯了我們強大的資本狀況。隨著股票回購暫停，盈利能力產生的資本超過了貸款增長，使我們估計的 CET1 進一步高於我們的目標，達到 10.31%。戰略行動，包括退出 Mortgage Banker Finance 和提高投資組合其餘部分的選擇性，預計將在今年年底前提高資本比率。較高的利率增加了我們的證券和掉期投資組合的未實現損失，將我們的有形普通股比率降低至 5.06%。

Adjusting for the impact of AOCI, our tangible common equity ratio would have been 9.22%. Although potential regulatory changes have not yet been proposed, considering our size, portfolio and projections, we feel very good about our ability to support our customers and comply with anticipated capital requirements.

調整 AOCI 的影響後，我們的有形普通股權益比率將為 9.22%。儘管尚未提出潛在的監管變化，但考慮到我們的規模、投資組合和預測，我們對我們支持客戶和遵守預期資本要求的能力感到非常滿意。

Our outlook for 2023 is on Slide 15 and assumes no significant change in the economic environment. We continue to project full-year 2023 average loan growth of 8%. The strategic exit of Mortgage Banker Finance and increased selectivity is expected to keep loan balances relatively flat into the third quarter. Our projected full-year average deposit decline of 14% to 15% is attributable to quantitative tightening that began last year and the impact of the first quarter of 2023 industry events. Assuming continued normalization of deposit trends and additional FOMC actions, we expect only a modest deposit decline through the second half of the year.

我們對 2023 年的展望如幻燈片 15 所示，並假設經濟環境不會發生重大變化。我們繼續預計 2023 年全年平均貸款增長率為 8%。 Mortgage Banker Finance 的戰略退出和選擇性的增加預計將使第三季度貸款餘額保持相對平穩。我們預計全年存款平均下降​​ 14% 至 15%，這是由於去年開始的量化緊縮以及 2023 年第一季度行業事件的影響。假設存款趨勢持續正常化以及聯邦公開市場委員會採取更多行動，我們預計下半年存款只會小幅下降。

We expect our highest year of net interest income in 2023, growing 1% to 2% over last year's record results. Although we anticipate short-term rates will remain high through the remainder of the year, our asset sensitivity position is designed to protect our strong profitability by minimizing the negative impact of rates when they decline.

我們預計 2023 年將是淨利息收入最高的一年，比去年創紀錄的業績增長 1% 至 2%。儘管我們預計短期利率將在今年剩餘時間內保持在高位，但我們的資產敏感性頭寸旨在通過最大限度地減少利率下降時的負面影響來保護我們強勁的盈利能力。

Credit quality remained excellent, and we expect continued migration to remain manageable. Given the strong performance through the first 2 quarters, we forecast full-year 2023 net charge-offs to remain below our normal 20 to 40 basis points range. Noninterest income exceeded expectations for the first half of the year, and we expect full year to grow 7% to 9% over 2022. The benefits from noncustomer income related to FHLB dividends and risk management income are expected to continue, but likely at declining rates as we repay maturing advances and rates normalize. While we expect strong foreign exchange income and derivative income, we anticipate levels to moderate from the incredible performance to date. Even with potential headwinds in the second half of the year relative to the first half, the overall noninterest income run rate remains compelling.

信貸質量仍然出色，我們預計持續的移民仍處於可控範圍內。鑑於前兩個季度的強勁表現，我們預計 2023 年全年淨沖銷將保持在 20 至 40 個基點的正常範圍以下。上半年非利息收入超出預期，我們預計 2022 年全年將增長 7% 至 9%。與 FHLB 股息和風險管理收入相關的非客戶收入預計將繼續帶來好處，但隨著我們償還到期預付款和利率正常化，利率可能會下降。雖然我們預計外匯收入和衍生品收入將強勁，但我們預計迄今為止令人難以置信的業績水平將有所放緩。儘管下半年相對於上半年存在潛在阻力，但總體非利息收入運行率仍然引人注目。

Noninterest expenses are expected to increase approximately 9% year-over-year, and 3% of that growth is the result of higher pension expense for 2023. Talent acquisition, investments benefiting our deposit strategy and the enhanced regulatory and compliance focus given our size and business model are expected to create some expense pressure compared to prior guidance.

非利息支出預計將同比增長約 9%，其中 3% 的增長是 2023 年養老金支出增加的結果。與之前的指導相比，人才收購、有利於我們存款策略的投資以及加強監管和合規性重點預計將產生一些費用壓力。

As we look into the third quarter, the cost of filling open positions and other expenses pressure should largely be offset by an expected credit to modernization expense driven by corporate facilities, although the precise timing for this type of credit can be challenging to predict. Prudent expense management remains a priority as we balance expense pressures with the need to invest for the future. Strong profitability is expected to further grow our capital position in excess of our target, and we believe that trend will continue until we resume share repurchases.

當我們展望第三季度時，填補空缺頭寸的成本和其他費用壓力應在很大程度上被企業設施驅動的現代化費用預期信貸所抵消，儘管此類信貸的準確時間可能難以預測。在我們平衡費用壓力與未來投資需求時，審慎的費用管理仍然是首要任務。強勁的盈利能力預計將進一步增加我們的資本頭寸，超過我們的目標，我們相信這種趨勢將持續下去，直到我們恢復股票回購。

Now I'll turn the call back to Curt.

現在我將把電話轉回給柯特。

Thank you, Jim. Slide 16 summarizes our competitive advantage with the local delivery of sophisticated, comprehensive products and industry expertise by tender bankers, we feel we encapsulate the best features of the largest and smallest competitors. Diversification remains an important tenet of our core strategy and exporting our business model to expansion of the market has further enhanced our attractive geographic profile. By accelerating certain investments already underway such as payments, small business, wealth management and capital markets, we are elevating the products and capabilities tailored to meet our customers' needs while enhancing our funding profile, revenue mix and overall return on capital.

謝謝你，吉姆。幻燈片 16 總結了我們的競爭優勢，即投標銀行家在本地交付複雜、全面的產品和行業專業知識，我們認為我們囊括了最大和最小競爭對手的最佳功能。多元化仍然是我們核心戰略的重要宗旨，將我們的業務模式輸出到市場擴張進一步增強了我們有吸引力的地域形象。通過加速支付、小企業、財富管理和資本市場等已經進行的某些投資，我們正在提升為滿足客戶需求而量身定制的產品和能力，同時增強我們的融資狀況、收入組合和整體資本回報率。

Optimizing our portfolio through the strategic exit of Mortgage Banker Finance and increasing selectivity across the rest of our business lines, prioritizes capital and funding for our target customers.

通過戰略性退出 Mortgage Banker Finance 來優化我們的投資組合，並提高我們其他業務線的選擇性，優先考慮為我們的目標客戶提供資本和融資。

Throughout our 174 years history, we have successfully navigated a number of economic events. And once again, our business model was tested and proved to be sound. As a leading bank for business with strong retail and wealth management capability, we play a unique role supporting our customers as a trusted long-term banking partner.

縱觀我們 174 年的歷史，我們成功應對了許多經濟事件。我們的商業模式再一次受到考驗並被證明是正確的。作為一家擁有強大零售和財富管理能力的領先商業銀行，我們作為值得信賴的長期銀行合作夥伴在支持客戶方面發揮著獨特的作用。

Thank you for your time this morning, and now we'd be happy to take some questions.

感謝您今天早上抽出時間，現在我們很樂意回答一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of John Pancari from Evercore.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

On the deposit growth outlook, I know you lowered your deposit growth expectation. Despite the end-of-period deposits actually increasing and coming in a little bit better than expected. I know you indicated you expect only a modest deposit decline in the back half. Can you maybe just give us some of the color around the rationale for the lower growth expectation and what type of trends that you expect to develop as you look at the back half?

關於存款增長前景，我知道你下調了存款增長預期。儘管期末存款實際上有所增加，並且好於預期。我知道您表示預計下半年存款只會小幅下降。您能否給我們一些關於較低增長預期的理由以及您預計下半年會出現什麼類型的趨勢？

Yes. John, it's Jim. Thanks for the question. Yes. The relatively stable or modest decrease was relative to the second-quarter average of $64 billion. We do expect to stay very close to that on average through the end of the year. There are some dynamics churning on below that. Core deposits will probably take a small step down from the average of Q2 just because in the first half of the second quarter, we did have just some very modest runoff. But then again, we added some brokered deposits also that should roughly offset that during the quarter that on an average basis will carry through.

是的。約翰，是吉姆。謝謝你的提問。是的。相對於第二季度平均 640 億美元而言，下降幅度相對穩定或適度。我們確實預計到今年年底，平均水平將保持在非常接近的水平。下面有一些動態在攪動。核心存款可能會比第二季度的平均水平略有下降，因為在第二季度上半段，我們確實只有一些非常溫和的徑流。但話又說回來，我們還增加了一些經紀存款，這應該大致抵消本季度平均將結轉的存款。

So we do think by the end of the year, we'll still be hovering around that $63 billion to $64 billion number. We were a little bit elevated on 6/30 as you see on the bar on the right. And so I would not expect all of those balances to stick around. We had $800 million of card that was elevated relative to this typical average. And then we did have some elevated customer balances on 6/30 that I would not expect to stick around either. So that is a little bit of an inflated number. I would maybe stick more to the average guidance of gravitating down to $63 billion to $64 billion by the end of the year on average.

因此，我們確實認為，到今年年底，我們仍將徘徊在 630 億美元至 640 億美元的數字附近。正如您在右側的欄上看到的那樣，我們在 6/30 的位置有點升高。因此，我不希望所有這些平衡都能維持下去。我們有 8 億美元的卡，相對於這個典型的平均水平有所提高。然後我們確實在 6 月 30 日增加了一些客戶餘額，我也不希望這種情況持續下去。所以這個數字有點誇張。我可能會更堅持平均指導，即到年底平均下降至 630 億美元至 640 億美元。

Okay. Great. And then separately, also on the deposit front, in terms of noninterest-bearing mix, I know it's 48% current. Where do you see that bottoming? Already, I think you're at your pre-pandemic level, you were running at around 48% of total deposits. So where do you think that could bottom? And then separately, I'm sorry if I missed it, but if you can give us your updated through cycle deposit beta expectation, I believe you were thinking mid-50s and you're currently at 47% now.

好的。偉大的。另外，在存款方面，就無息組合而言，我知道當前利率為 48%。您在哪裡看到觸底？我認為您已經處於大流行前的水平，大約佔總存款的 48%。那麼您認為這會在哪裡觸底呢？另外，如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，但如果您能給我們更新的周期存款 Beta 預期，我相信您當時的想法是 50 多歲，而目前的水平是 47%。

Yes. We are, on average, as well as June 30, hovering in that 47% to 48% area. It's consistent with what I said early in June at our major investor conference we still think we are going to dip just slightly below 45%. So think about maybe 44% to 45%. The average ratio was a little bit elevated because it doesn't consider a little bit of the runoff that occurred early in the second quarter. The June 30 ratio of 47% is a little elevated due to the elevated noninterest-bearing balances that I referred to before.

是的。平均而言，截至 6 月 30 日，我們都徘徊在 47% 至 48% 的區域。這與我 6 月初在主要投資者會議上所說的一致，我們仍然認為股價將略低於 45%。所以想想也許是 44% 到 45%。平均比率略有升高，因為它沒有考慮第二季度初發生的一點徑流。由於我之前提到的無息餘額增加，6 月 30 日的比率為 47%，略有上升。

And so I kind of think of us being on a kind of a spot basis to ignore the elevated balances. I really think of us today as being 45% to 46%, and I see that dipping down to maybe 44% to 45% by the end of the year. Keep in mind that there are a number of variables involved here. Noninterest-bearing flows will be the most important variable. But to the extent we're successful in bringing back interest-bearing deposits, that could push that ratio down to, and we would, of course, welcome back those interest-bearing deposits. In terms of the beta question, yes, we still think we're going to end up on a cumulative basis in the mid-50s. I mean right now, I have 56% implied in the guidance, but pretty consistent with what we've been saying for the last few months. So we're still right around that mid-50 area.

因此，我認為我們在某種程度上忽略了增加的餘額。我真的認為我們今天的比例是 45% 到 46%，我預計到年底這個比例可能會下降到 44% 到 45%。請記住，這裡涉及許多變量。無息流量將是最重要的變量。但就我們成功收回帶息存款而言，這可能會將這一比率降低至，我們當然歡迎這些帶息存款的回歸。就測試版問題而言，是的，我們仍然認為我們最終將在 50 年代中期累積。我的意思是，現在，我在指導中暗示了 56%，但與我們過去幾個月所說的非常一致。所以我們仍然在 50 左右的區域附近。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Alexopoulos from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

Jim, I just want to drill down on your answer to John's question. So the stability or modest decline in deposits for the rest of the year, you're saying that's coming from outflow slowing. It's not because you had strong outflows this quarter, but you plug the hole of broker deposits. So you're not saying you need to use brokered for the second half to remain fairly stable down a bit as outflows are slowing, correct?

吉姆，我只想深入了解你對約翰問題的回答。因此，今年剩餘時間存款的穩定或小幅下降，你是說這是由於流出放緩。這並不是因為本季度出現了強勁的資金外流，而是因為您堵住了經紀商存款的漏洞。因此，您並不是說下半年需要使用經紀業務來保持相當穩定，因為資金流出正在放緩，對嗎？

That's right. To be clear, we have really no plans to add broker deposits between now and end of the year. I think we're at a pretty good resting spot. We do think the customer core deposits have very much stabilized. We do see whether you define it by where we were in the second-quarter average or if you look at June 30, which with some elevated balances and you normalize for that number for those elevated balances. From there, we see just some very modest decline between now and the end of the year.

這是正確的。需要明確的是，從現在到今年年底，我們確實沒有增加經紀商存款的計劃。我認為我們現在處於一個非常好的休息地點。我們確實認為客戶核心存款已經非常穩定。我們確實會看看您是根據第二季度平均水平來定義它，還是根據 6 月 30 日的情況來定義它，其中有一些餘額增加，並且您將這些增加的餘額的數字標準化。從那時起，我們看到從現在到今年年底之間只有一些非常溫和的下降。

Now we've not really factored in a material amount of seasonal deposits, which in the past have come in, but seasonal patterns have gone out the window over the last year. We're not exactly sure what to expect there. So there could be some opportunity there. But overall, if you adjust that $66 billion in June 30 for card, and may be a modest amount of elevated balances, we would see just a modest decline from that level on, assuming we don't get a large and full seasonal deposits.

現在我們還沒有真正考慮到大量的季節性存款，這些存款在過去已經出現過，但季節性模式在去年已經消失了。我們不太確定那裡會發生什麼。所以那裡可能有一些機會。但總體而言，如果您在 6 月 30 日調整 660 億美元的信用卡餘額，並且餘額可能會適度增加，那麼假設我們沒有獲得大量且全額的季節性存款，那麼我們會看到從該水平開始略有下降。

Got it. And if we think about the margin outflows noninterest-bearing, right replacing those with basically time deposits, that's really pressured the NIM. So if that both the ninth inning, are we at a bottom for the NIM right now?

知道了。如果我們考慮到無息保證金流出，用基本定期存款取代那些，這確實給淨息差帶來了壓力。那麼，如果這都是第九局，那麼我們現在 NIM 是否處於底部？

If you look at our guidance, Steven, we do have just a little bit more pressure to go there. You see the net interest income guidance that we implied, you do see a small step down in Q3 and then a smaller step down in Q4. Now as a partial offset that I never like to talk about NIM percentage because our NIM percentage can bounce around for reasons that don't correlate with income, whether it be the level of securities, whether it be the level of cash that we carry and the reasons for carrying that cash.

史蒂文，如果你看看我們的指導，我們確實面臨著更大的壓力。您會看到我們暗示的淨利息收入指導，您確實會看到第三季度出現小幅下降，然後第四季度出現更小的下降。現在作為部分抵消，我從來不喜歡談論淨息差百分比，因為我們的淨息差百分比可能會因為與收入無關的原因而波動，無論是證券水平，無論是我們持有的現金水平以及持有現金的原因。

If we do see cash balances go down, at least that is putting a bit of a drag on the NIM, if they go down to normal levels. I would see the NIM being very close to where it's at now. You might see another 3 or 4 steps downward pressure on the NIM as the deposit mix is roughly offset by the smaller balance sheet as we deflate for that excess cash. If we don't reduce cash balances, and my forecast assumes we do, but we hold at these cash levels that we're currently at, you could see another 9, 10 bps in NIM. But again, I'm not expecting that at this point. I'm more focused on getting the cash down as things continue to stabilize. So we're very near the bottom, just maybe a few bps depending on what we do with our cash position.

如果我們確實看到現金餘額下降，如果它們下降到正常水平，至少會對淨息差造成一些拖累。我認為 NIM 非常接近現在的水平。您可能會看到淨息差進一步下降 3 或 4 個步驟，因為存款組合大致被較小的資產負債表所抵消，因為我們對多餘的現金進行了緊縮。如果我們不減少現金餘額（我的預測假設我們會減少現金餘額），但我們保持目前的現金水平，您可能會看到淨息差再增加 9、10 個基點。但話又說回來，我現在並不期待這種情況。隨著情況繼續穩定，我更專注於減少現金。因此，我們非常接近底部，可能只是幾個基點，具體取決於我們如何處理現金頭寸。

So maybe a final question. I know we're going to get to new capital fairly soon, but you guys are $91 billion of assets. How do you think about crossing that $100 billion asset threshold organic I know this is not a great environment to be considering M&A transactions. But when you think about just the capital burden, the cost burden feels like -- potentially, does that make sense across that organically?

所以也許是最後一個問題。我知道我們很快就會獲得新資本，但你們的資產高達 910 億美元。您如何看待有機跨越 1000 億美元資產門檻？我知道這不是一個考慮併購交易的好環境。但當你只考慮資本負擔時，成本負擔感覺就像——潛在地，這在有機方面是否有意義？

Yes. Steven, this is Curt. I'll take that question. And you're right, we are within a certain range of that $100 billion mark around $91 billion in assets. And assuming that we just see organic growth that we would eventually cross that number, we've been planning now for the last 2 years and have a little bit more work to do just to be prepared for whatever regulatory increased oversight going back into the stress test, capital planning, et cetera, if we became a category 4 bank. We think just through organic growth, that would probably be a few years out. And our view has continued to be that we're going to focus on doing the right thing for the shareholders, growing the company, growing the assets of the company as we have over a 174-year history.

是的。史蒂文，這是柯特。我來回答這個問題。你是對的，我們的資產處於 1000 億美元大關的一定範圍內，約為 910 億美元。假設我們只是看到有機增長，最終會超過這個數字，那麼我們在過去的兩年裡一直在計劃，並且還有更多的工作要做，只是為了為如果我們成為第四類銀行而加強監管，回到壓力測試、資本規劃等方面做好準備。我們認為，僅通過有機增長，這可能需要幾年時間。我們的觀點仍然是，我們將專注於為股東做正確的事情、發展公司、增加公司資產，因為我們擁有超過 174 年的歷史。

And if that means crossing that $100 billion mark, it would mean crossing that $100 billion mark. But we think that we're trying to think about it from a long-term perspective. And you're just trying to be prepared for whatever cost on regulatory oversight might be associated with that if it is crossing it from an organic perspective.

如果這意味著突破 1000 億美元大關，那就意味著突破 1000 億美元大關。但我們認為我們正在嘗試從長遠的角度來考慮這個問題。如果從有機的角度來看，你只是想為可能與之相關的監管監督成本做好準備。

Your next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess just following up on Steve's last question on these capital changes. Even if you don't cross $100 billion, what are the changes you expect to make in terms of just balance sheet management, either loan-to-deposit ratio, liquidity, et cetera, once these rules are out?

我想只是跟進史蒂夫關於這些資本變化的最後一個問題。即使您沒有突破 1000 億美元，一旦這些規則出台，您預計會在資產負債表管理（貸存比、流動性等）方面做出哪些改變？

The rules -- this is Curt, Ebrahim, most anticipated ruling is really around the treatment of AOCI and regulatory ratios. And while all the conversation thus far has been focused on banks north of $100 billion, we do anticipate that there might be some eventual phase-in below $100 billion, nothing official on that right now, but we're just trying to be prepared if that comes to pass. If you look at sort of where we are from a CET1 perspective at 10.31% if you factor in AOCI, we would be slightly south of 7%, like 6.93%. And so we would have a little bit of work to do to raise capital, but we believe it would be phased in.

規則 - 這是 Curt，Ebrahim，最令人期待的裁決實際上是圍繞 AOCI 和監管比率的處理。雖然迄今為止所有的討論都集中在 1000 億美元以上的銀行，但我們確實預計最終可能會分階段投入到 1000 億美元以下，目前還沒有任何官方消息，但我們只是在努力為這種情況的發生做好準備。如果你從 CET1 的角度來看，如果考慮到 AOCI，我們的得分為 10.31%，那麼我們的得分會略低於 7%，比如 6.93%。因此，我們需要做一些工作來籌集資金，但我們相信這會分階段進行。

And just through normal earnings of the company, we could get back to an appropriate CET1 level. We do not believe that we'd have to go to the external market to raise capital to get back to that level. So we think we're well positioned. With whatever ruling might come out, and again, given that we're below the $100 billion mark, we think we would have some more time if you got applied to banks below that level.

而只要通過公司的正常盈利，我們就可以回到合適的CET1水平。我們認為我們不必去外部市場籌集資金才能回到這一水平。所以我們認為我們處於有利位置。無論最終結果如何，考慮到我們的金額低於 1000 億美元大關，我們認為如果您向低於該水平的銀行提出申請，我們會有更多時間。

And just in terms of liquidity, the loan-to-deposit ratio in the 80s still seem like the right place to be.

就流動性而言，80年代的貸存比似乎仍然是合適的水平。

I believe, Ebrahim, you're asking about the stabilization of the loan-to-deposit ratio?

我相信，Ebrahim，您是在問貸存比的穩定嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, we do expect to stay in the mid-80s or we do think it was, again, just slightly elevated on June 30, but we do have a plan to stay in the mid-80s and certainly some of the asset optimization things we're doing will ensure that. So we're right around that area that we're comfortable in.

是的，我們確實預計會保持在 80 年代中期，或者我們確實認為它在 6 月 30 日只是略有上升，但我們確實有計劃保持在 80 年代中期，當然我們正在做的一些資產優化工作將確保這一點。所以我們就在我們感到舒服的區域附近。

And it also is below our sort of historical average as well where we've normally operated.

它也低於我們的歷史平均水平以及我們通常運營的水​​平。

Understood. And just 1 separate question, if I may. Given your customer base, give us a sense of your outlook in terms of credit, health of the customer, there's not a lot of corporate bonds that have yet repriced to the higher rates over the last 12 months. What's your expectation in terms of the next year and the likelihood of recession soft landing, et cetera?

明白了。如果可以的話，我想問一個單獨的問題。考慮到您的客戶群，讓我們了解一下您的信用前景、客戶健康狀況，在過去 12 個月中，沒有多少公司債券尚未重新定價至更高的利率。您對明年以及經濟衰退軟著陸的可能性等有何期望？

Yes. Ebrahim, this is Melinda. Obviously, the credit performance continues to be really strong. It was a really nice quarter for us obviously third quarter of net recoveries kind of unprecedented, nonperforming assets, again, modest decline and very low inflow. But we did see an increase in the criticized category, which is exactly what we've been expecting to see over the last couple of quarters. The preponderance of the increase that we saw is in our, what I call core middle market C&I portfolio, which would include a number of leveraged loans in that automotive supplier sector.

是的。易卜拉欣，這是梅琳達。顯然，信貸表現仍然強勁。對於我們來說，這是一個非常好的季度，顯然第三季度的淨復甦是前所未有的，不良資產再次出現適度下降和非常低的流入。但我們確實看到受到批評的類別有所增加，這正是我們在過去幾個季度中所期望看到的。我們看到的增長主要是在我們的核心中間市場 C&I 投資組合中，其中包括汽車供應商行業的大量槓桿貸款。

So again, we have expected that we would begin to see normalization. It's taken a couple of extra quarters to actually get there. We've been bouncing around the bottom for a long time. Our current economic forecast that we use in our CECL process does call for a mild recession. And I think whether it's a mild recession or we end up with a soft landing, I think we're prepared for a mild recession as it relates to the reserve build, and the reserve build this quarter really reflects kind of the portfolio growth, as Jim said, as well as that migration. But as of now, we don't see a lot of lost content. And as Jim guided, we think that for the remainder of this year, we'll be below that average that we've typically guided.

因此，我們再次預計我們將開始看到正常化。花了幾個額外的季度才真正到達那裡。我們已經在底部徘徊了很長一段時間。我們當前在 CECL 流程中使用的經濟預測確實要求出現溫和衰退。我認為，無論是溫和衰退還是最終軟著陸，我認為我們已經為溫和衰退做好了準備，因為這與儲備建設有關，而本季度的儲備建設確實反映了投資組合的增長，正如吉姆所說，以及這種遷移。但截至目前，我們還沒有看到太多丟失的內容。正如吉姆所指導的那樣，我們認為在今年剩餘的時間裡，我們將低於我們通常指導的平均水平。

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Arfstrom from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Jon Arfstrom。

Melinda, just to follow up on that one. How do you expect -- do you expect more normalization? And how do you generally expect those numbers to progress on criticized?

梅琳達，只是為了跟進那個。您有何期望——您期望更多的正常化嗎？您通常預計這些數字在受到批評後會取得怎樣的進展？

Yes. I mean I think we expect that we'll continue to have some migration in the portfolio. There is no doubt that the customer base has been incredibly resilient. Obviously, came in over the last couple of years, challenges, very low levered, lots of liquidity, lots of availability. But inflationary pressures over the last 18 months are starting to show up in the portfolio in terms of pressure around growth in net margins. So cash flows are a little more stretched, and I would expect that we'll continue to see some additional migration. I think we're very well reserved and all of that is taken into sort of the process that we go through each quarter.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們預計我們的產品組合將繼續進行一些遷移。毫無疑問，客戶群具有令人難以置信的彈性。顯然，過去幾年出現了挑戰，槓桿率非常低，流動性很大，可用性很高。但過去 18 個月的通脹壓力開始在投資組合中體現為淨利潤增長的壓力。因此，現金流有點緊張，我預計我們將繼續看到一些額外的移民。我認為我們保留得很好，所有這些都被納入我們每個季度經歷的流程中。

Okay. And maybe this somewhat ties into it, but maybe to repeat. But you talked about increased selectivity in lending. Can you talk a little bit more about that kind of where you're being a little bit more cautious? And then the CRE number, it sounds like that was more construction projects funding up. I think you said things are slowing there, but can you just confirm that?

好的。也許這有點相關，但也許重複一下。但您談到了貸款選擇性的增加。您能多談談您在哪些方面更加謹慎嗎？然後是 CRE 的數字，聽起來好像是更多的建設項目籌集了資金。我想你說過那裡的事情正在放緩，但你能證實這一點嗎？

Jon, it's Peter. Yes, I think when we talk about it, it's really around quite candidly, pricing expectations across the loan portfolio. And we continue to be really selective about it. I've said in the past, we're more focused on sort of credit than we are maybe trying to earn business on pricing over time. And right now, between those 2 options, we want to make sure that we're earning for the company. And so our selectivity and expectations on pricing. And I think you're seeing that across the industry just as capital is kind of being contained here that we're being very careful about where we deploy it. We're taking care of existing customers.

喬恩，是彼得。是的，我認為當我們談論它時，它確實是相當坦率地圍繞整個貸款組合的定價預期。我們仍然對此非常有選擇性。我過去說過，我們更關注某種信用，而不是隨著時間的推移通過定價來贏得業務。現在，在這兩個選擇之間，我們希望確保我們能為公司帶來收入。所以我們對定價的選擇性和期望。我認為你會看到，在整個行業中，就像資本被限制在這裡一樣，我們對部署它的地方非常謹慎。我們正在照顧現有客戶。

Our expectations on profitability or higher relationship or higher that's kind of across the portfolio. I think in commercial real estate specifically, we've actually kind of started dialing back a little bit on that even beginning of this year, maybe end of last year, just starting to be very careful in taking care of our existing sponsors. We've got great sponsors. We feel really good about the portfolio, very limited office exposure, watching what's happening in multifamily. We expect, though, our projects to kind of carry commercial real estate balances really into next year. So we're feel good about it, where we are. We feel good about it from a credit standpoint, or sponsor standpoint, but our expectations on pricing have definitely gone up this year.

我們對整個投資組合的盈利能力或更高的關係或更高的期望。我認為，特別是在商業房地產領域，我們實際上已經開始在今年年初，也許是去年年底有所回撤，只是開始非常小心地照顧我們現有的讚助商。我們有很棒的讚助商。我們對這個投資組合感覺非常好，辦公室曝光度非常有限，正在觀察多戶住宅中發生的事情。不過，我們預計我們的項目將在明年真正實現商業房地產餘額。所以我們對現在的處境感覺良好。從信用角度或贊助商角度來看，我們對此感覺良好，但今年我們對定價的期望肯定有所提高。

Okay. Good. And then just one for you, Ralph, maybe kind of an odd question, but you've dealt with COVID, you've dealt with the funding crisis as CEO. So it's been a hell of a run for you, but do you feel like it's largely business as usual for Comerica right now? Are you still fighting some of these questions from depositors and this funding crisis that's happened over the last 4 months?

好的。好的。拉爾夫，我想問你一個問題，這可能是一個奇怪的問題，但你已經處理過新冠疫情，你已經作為首席執行官處理過資金危機。所以這對你來說是一次艱難的經歷，但你覺得現在聯信銀行基本上一切如常嗎？您是否仍在與儲戶提出的一些問題以及過去 4 個月發生的融資危機作鬥爭？

Jon, first of all, I'm honored that you referred to me as Ralph because I know you're...

喬恩，首先，我很榮幸你稱我為拉爾夫，因為我知道你......

Did I say that? I apologize.

我有這麼說過嗎？我道歉。

Our long-term Chairman Ralph...

我們的長期主席拉爾夫...

I'm under my desk right now, Curt.

我現在就在桌子底下，柯特。

You're great and remains very, very engaged...

你很棒，而且仍然非常非常投入......

I was asking you.

我是在問你。

Just a minute about the comments to your question that you asked me, the last 30, 60 days, a number of us have been out in the market, visiting with both employees and town-hall formats but also with customers in Michigan, California, the Carolinas, Texas, Florida, et cetera. And I would say the conversations really have shifted for the most part back to more business as usual, as you would refer to it when customers are asking us about things -- customers nobody ask us about, the economy, about interest rates, about availability to capital and credit, what we're seeing in terms of M&A activity in various industries, et cetera, industry outlooks.

請花一點時間談談您對我提出的問題的評論，過去 30、60 天，我們中的一些人一直在市場上，拜訪了員工和市政廳形式，也拜訪了密歇根州、加利福尼亞州、卡羅來納州、德克薩斯州、佛羅里達州等地的客戶。我想說的是，對話在很大程度上已經轉向更多的業務照常進行，就像當客戶向我們詢問事情時你會提到的那樣——沒有人問我們的客戶，經濟、利率、資本和信貸的可用性、我們在各個行業的併購活動等方面看到的情況、行業前景。

And so I feel like that things have definitely stabilized in terms of customer communication, customer conversations. And we're focused, as Peter said, on taking care of our existing customers. And that's something that I think we do very well. We've got really great long-standing relationships. And I might just remind you and the other listeners, that really throughout the crisis, we did not lose customers. We saw some customers diversified deposits. And we hope over time and seeing some signs, early signs of that, the customer will bring some of those deposits back or some moved out.

所以我覺得在客戶溝通、客戶對話方面，情況肯定已經穩定下來。正如彼得所說，我們專注於照顧我們現有的客戶。我認為我們在這方面做得很好。我們有著非常良好的長期合作關係。我可能只是提醒您和其他聽眾，實際上在整個危機期間，我們並沒有失去客戶。我們看到一些客戶的存款多元化。我們希望隨著時間的推移，看到一些跡象，早期跡象，客戶將收回部分存款或移出部分存款。

As you alluded to earlier, it has been an interesting time. I became the CEO in April of 2019. And you know all the events that have occurred since then. But I think our company is so resilient to manage through 174 years of all the disruptions that have occurred in the economy, in the world during that time. And we just do, I think, a great job of rallying together and it really pretty much is business as usual. I referred to in my comments earlier, a lot of things that we're focused on, and we remain focused on those beyond just taking care of our employees and our customers, expanding into new markets, focusing on product capabilities, focusing on small business, growing the commercial bank, growing wealth management, growing the retail bank. And we feel like the future for us remains very bright as an organization.

正如您之前提到的，這是一段有趣的時光。我於 2019 年 4 月成為首席執行官。從那時起發生的所有事件你都知道。但我認為，我們公司的韌性非常強，能夠應對 174 年來世界經濟發生的所有混亂。我認為，我們團結在一起做得很好，一切都一切如常。我之前在評論中提到，我們關注的很多事情，我們仍然關注那些不僅僅是照顧我們的員工和客戶、拓展新市場、關注產品能力、關注小企業、發展商業銀行、發展財富管理、發展零售銀行。我們覺得作為一個組織，我們的未來仍然非常光明。

Okay. Well, Curt, I've never had so many e-mails in response to the question -- not so much, but I know you're doing a great job, Curt.

好的。好吧，柯特，我從來沒有收到過這麼多回复這個問題的電子郵件——沒有那麼多，但我知道你做得很好，柯特。

Your next question comes from the line of Brody Preston from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布羅迪·普雷斯頓 (Brody Preston)。

I just I wanted to ask on the tech and life sciences deposits. I noticed that those continue to move down a little bit, but it looks like the rate of change kind of slowed there. I was wondering kind of what drove that decline? Is it kind of back to normal cash burn for those clients, and kind of what the -- I guess, is there a growth outlook trended for that business line now that there's been just a disruption with the largest competitor there no longer -- our wholesaling?

我只是想詢問科技和生命科學存款的情況。我注意到這些數字繼續略有下降，但看起來變化速度有所放緩。我想知道是什麼導致了這種下降？對於這些客戶來說，這是否回到了正常的現金消耗狀態？我想，既然最大的競爭對手不再是我們的批發業務，那麼該業務線的增長前景是否會出現趨勢？

Brody, this is Peter. Yes, the decline in deposits in TLS, we really started actually seeing that back in the middle of last year. So I think that cash started being consumed in that space with all the things that you've kind of seen happening with tech. I think what happened earlier this year probably accelerated that a little bit further. But as far as where we go from here, we're being very cautious about our relationships. We're watching what's going on in the VC community, raising capital, new codes that are being formed. We've been in that business a long, long time.

布羅迪，這是彼得。是的，TLS 存款的下降，我們從去年年中就開始真正看到這一點。因此，我認為現金開始在這個領域被消耗，伴隨著你所看到的科技領域發生的所有事情。我認為今年早些時候發生的事情可能會進一步加速這一趨勢。但就我們今後的發展而言，我們對我們的關係非常謹慎。我們正在關注風險投資界正在發生的事情、籌集資金以及正在形成的新規則。我們從事這項業務已經很長時間了。

We plan to stay in it. We're looking at -- we're very careful about where we're adding people, where we're adding relationships. And so I think that we will be in the business. I think it's probably, at some point, you're going to -- you'll start to see cash build again across the industry and certainly at Comerica. I don't know that it's necessarily in the next 6 months. I think we've probably got a little more cash burn going on in this space. That said, we are bringing on new relationships. And as I said, we're adding people. We feel really good about the industry and the opportunity over the long term, but we've probably got some time to go here of cash burn. And I think a number of these companies are going to need to raise some capital, and we'll see what happens in the industry going forward.

我們打算留在裡面。我們正在考慮——我們非常謹慎地考慮在哪裡增加人員、在哪裡增加關係。所以我認為我們會參與這個行業。我認為，在某個時候，你可能會開始看到整個行業（尤其是聯信）的現金再次增加。我不知道這一定是在接下來的6個月內。我認為我們在這個領域可能會消耗更多的現金。也就是說，我們正在建立新的關係。正如我所說，我們正在增加人員。從長遠來看，我們對這個行業和機會感到非常滿意，但我們可能還有一些時間來燒錢。我認為其中許多公司將需要籌集一些資金，我們將看看該行業未來會發生什麼。

Got it. And then I was hoping just within the AOCI walk. If you could give us some indication as to what the conditional prepayment rate you're assuming within your effective duration calculation?

知道了。然後我希望就在 AOCI 步行範圍內。您能否告訴我們您在有效期限計算中假設的有條件預付款率是多少？

Yes, Brody, it's Jim. I mean that prepayment rate varies somewhat widely, depending on the type of security. Of course, we have some bullets in there on the commercial side that generally don't have much in the way of prepayment. And then we have a number of various tranches of MBS securities that have some variance to them. So I don't think there's any 1 number that would likely answer your question, but we certainly have prepayment rates factored into that.

是的，布羅迪，是吉姆。我的意思是，根據證券的類型，預付款率差異很大。當然，我們在商業方面有一些子彈，通常沒有太多預付款的方式。然後，我們有許多不同類別的 MBS 證券，它們之間存在一些差異。因此，我認為沒有任何一個數字可以回答您的問題，但我們肯定已將預付款率考慮在內。

Got it. Is it reflective of kind of what the market is bearing on a quarter-to-quarter basis, Jim?

知道了。吉姆，它是否反映了市場每季度的情況？

Yes, absolutely. That's something we prudently do every quarter is monitor the market prepayment rate. So very much in line with the market.

是的，一點沒錯。我們每個季度都會謹慎地做這件事，那就是監控市場預付款率。所以非常符合市場。

Got it. Great. And then I wanted to ask just on the fixed rate loan portfolio, the portion of the portfolio is fixed rate, more purely fixed rate, not so much the swap portion. I wanted to get a sense for kind of what the quarterly repricing cadence looks like on that? And kind of what the existing yield on that book is?

知道了。偉大的。然後我想問的是固定利率貸款組合，投資組合的部分是固定利率，更純粹的固定利率，而不是掉期部分。我想了解一下季度重新定價的節奏是什麼樣的？那本書的現有收益率是多少？

Yes. That book is a relatively small part of our portfolio, less than 8% of our loans. It does yield well below our current portfolio. We haven't disclosed the exact rate, but I would say it is materially below, which isn't surprising given how fast interest rates have gone up. Contractual life on that is about 8 years. So remaining life will be about 4 years. We do see it amortizing along a pretty straight line path amongst that 4-year remaining life. And we see the -- I would say that fixed rate portfolio price is up probably 15 bps a quarter.

是的。那本書在我們的投資組合中所佔的比例相對較小，不到我們貸款的 8%。它的收益率確實遠低於我們當前的投資組合。我們還沒有透露確切的利率，但我想說它遠低於利率，考慮到利率上升的速度，這並不奇怪。合同壽命約為8年。所以剩餘壽命約為4年。我們確實看到它在 4 年剩餘壽命中沿著一條相當直線的路徑攤銷。我們看到——我想說的是，固定利率投資組合價格每季度可能上漲 15 個基點。

You kind of parlay that along as a percentage of the overall loan book. You're looking at maybe a dip a quarter of loan yields going up because of their pricing, the fixed rate book. So that will be a very a small tailwind for us. But it just depends on where the curve goes, where the repriced at and how prepayment patterns kind of follow through there.

你可以將其作為整個貸款賬簿的一定百分比來進行償還。你會看到，由於固定利率賬本的定價，貸款收益率可能會下降四分之一。因此，這對我們來說將是一個非常小的推動力。但這僅取決於曲線的走向、重新定價的位置以及預付款模式如何遵循那裡。

It's really one of the strengths of our model is the floating rate. Most of our loans are floating rate across our portfolio. So we're able to benefit on the actual loan book when interest rates are going up like this, to your question there, Brody?

我們模型的優勢之一確實是浮動利率。我們的大部分貸款在我們的投資組合中都是浮動利率的。因此，當利率像這樣上漲時，我們能夠從實際的貸款賬簿中受益，對於你的問題，布羅迪？

That's right. And it gives us a little more control too because we can more synthetically manage our asset liability position as opposed to being a diversity in prepayment rates.

這是正確的。它也給了我們更多的控制權，因為我們可以更綜合地管理我們的資產負債狀況，而不是提前還款率的多樣性。

Got it. And then last one for me. I just was hoping for a reminder on the swaps, the yields that you disclosed, the 2.38% for this year, the 2.50% for next year, are those -- are those just the received fixed rate? Or is that a net rate? And if it is just received fix, do you happen to have a sense for what the current kind of pay floating rate is on those swaps?

知道了。然後是我的最後一張。我只是希望能提醒您有關掉期的信息，您披露的收益率，今年的 2.38％，明年的 2.50％，這些只是收到的固定利率嗎？或者說這是淨利率？如果剛剛收到修復，您是否了解這些掉期目前的支付浮動利率是多少？

Yes. These are fixed receive rates and the pay floating is pretty much aligned with LIBOR -- 30-day LIBOR previously as the quarter progressed as well as a combination of monthly SOFR and BSBY, of course, LIBOR is behind us now are pretty much aligned with monthly SOFR and monthly BSBY. So that obviously is changing as the Federal Reserve makes its changes and so on.

是的。這些是固定接收利率，浮動工資與 LIBOR 非常一致——之前隨著季度的進展，30 天 LIBOR 以及每月 SOFR 和 BSBY 的組合，當然，LIBOR 現在落後於我們，與每月 SOFR 和每月 BSBY 幾乎一致。因此，隨著美聯儲做出改變等等，這種情況顯然正在發生變化。

Got it. Is there any spread there over that rate?

知道了。與該利率相比還有價差嗎？

Yes. I mean you know that BSBY, SOFR, depending on where we're at with the FOMC increase coming up here. Obviously, you're looking at kind of a pay rate in the 5.25% range. So that would give you a spread relative to this yield that you see here -- received rate.

是的。我的意思是，您知道 BSBY、SOFR，這取決於 FOMC 即將加息的情況。顯然，您正在尋找 5.25% 範圍內的薪資率。因此，這會給你一個相對於你在這裡看到的收益率的利差——收到的利率。

Your next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

I just wanted to follow up on the earlier line of questioning on deposit balances. So you noted that deposits have stabilized. And if I look at your last update at our conference in June to the end of the quarter, NIB has actually improved quite nicely, even if I strip out the card-related deposits that you mentioned. So can you talk about what drove that? And what May, June just such a strong month? I know you said the conversations have moved back to business as usual, but maybe you can expand on what changed in those conversations in the last 3 weeks of June for deposit customers specifically?

我只是想跟進之前關於存款餘額的詢問。所以你注意到存款已經穩定。如果我看一下您在 6 月至本季度末的會議上的最新更新，即使我剔除您提到的與銀行卡相關的存款，NIB 實際上也有了相當好的改善。那麼您能談談是什麼推動了這一點嗎？那麼五月、六月究竟是怎樣一個強勁的月份呢？我知道您說過對話已恢復正常，但也許您可以詳細說明 6 月最後 3 週的對話中具體針對存款客戶發生了什麼變化？

Yes. I would say Manan, it's Jim, really nothing changed. We're very much on the trajectory that we had forecasted. And as I mentioned, beyond card, we did have some elevated customer balances on the noninterest-bearing side, really in the last few days of the month that are no longer with us. Depending on how you think about how often those types of balances come back, we're anywhere from another $0.5 billion to $1 billion elevated at the end of the month. But again, we often get these types of deposits, too. So I don't want to fully discount them. But it is important to understand we were a little bit elevated on June 30.

是的。我想說的是馬南，是吉姆，真的什麼都沒有改變。我們正沿著我們預測的軌跡前進。正如我所提到的，除了信用卡之外，我們確實在無息方面增加了一些客戶餘額，實際上是在本月的最後幾天，這些餘額不再屬於我們。根據您對這些類型餘額恢復的頻率的考慮，我們在月底會再增加 5 億到 10 億美元。但同樣，我們也經常收到此類存款。所以我不想完全打折它們。但重要的是要了解 6 月 30 日我們的股價略有上漲。

Yes, I might -- this is Curt, Manan just to add what I said earlier or expound on what I said earlier. I think just as things have settled down, the understanding that the concerns or maybe overplayed for the whole industry and customers are back just more business as usual. They are talking to us about credit and fee income products and services and how we can take advantage or support them from an advisory standpoint. But I think just getting the banking crisis out of the media and just the noise that was associated with those first couple of months dying down has really, I think, shifted the conversation quite a bit.

是的，我可能——我是馬南，我只是為了補充我之前所說的內容或闡述我之前所說的內容。我認為，隨著事情穩定下來，對整個行業和客戶的擔憂或可能被誇大的理解又會恢復正常。他們正在與我們討論信貸和費用收入產品和服務，以及我們如何從諮詢的角度利用或支持他們。但我認為，只要將銀行業危機從媒體中淡出，以及與最初幾個月的消退相關的噪音，我認為確實已經使談話發生了很大的變化。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just separately, I realize the FDIC special assessment hasn't been finalized, but I was wondering if you know once it's finalized, does that come out all in 1 quarter where there's a reserve? Or does it come out over the course of the 2 years as the proposal suggest?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，我意識到 FDIC 特別評估尚未最終確定，但我想知道您是否知道一旦最終確定，是否會在有準備金的情況下在 1 季度內全部出來？或者它是否會按照提案建議的那樣在兩年內完成？

Well, we're still waiting, of course, for the rule to be finalized and there's been a lot of input provided there. So we really don't know where it's going to end up. I mean, I think the best speculation is from a cash basis, we would probably pay it once the rule is established but it would be recognized on an expense basis and therefore, it's impacted capital over a couple of years. But there are a number of variables at play there in terms of all the input being provided. So I think we just have to wait and see what the final rule has in it. It would be a onetime hit to capital, though, once it is recognized, the rule is.

當然，我們仍在等待規則的最終確定，並且已經提供了很多意見。所以我們真的不知道它最終會去哪裡。我的意思是，我認為最好的投機是基於現金基礎，一旦規則確立，我們可能會支付它，但它將以費用為基礎進行確認，因此，它會在幾年內影響資本。但就所提供的所有輸入而言，存在許多變量在起作用。所以我認為我們只需要等待，看看最終規則有什麼內容。不過，一旦它被認識到，規則就是如此，這對資本來說將是一次性的打擊。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Winter from D.A. Davidson.

你的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Peter Winter。戴維森。

I was wondering, with deposits closer to stabilization or the outflow slowing, net interest margin nearing a bottom, do you think net interest income could stabilize in 2024 relative to the fourth quarter?

我想知道，隨著存款趨於穩定或流出放緩，淨息差接近底部，您認為2024年淨利息收入相對於四季度是否會趨於穩定？

We think it's getting very close with the betas. Based on where the curve was on June 30, we think betas will probably stop rising once you get to around December, January. But of course, you would have the full quarter effect of that probably dipping a little bit into 2024. We're bringing loan balances down throughout the year. Most of that loan balance drop will occur in the fourth quarter so you could get a full quarter average of that kind of tripping into the first quarter of 2024 also. So just because of those quarter-to-quarter bleed-ins, I don't know there will be 100% stabilized in Q1 of next year, but I do think it will stabilize, if not Q1, probably in Q2. There are some other variables going on in terms of how pricing plays out in the industry that could be a potential tailwind. But yes, I think as we cross over the year, you're very close to a bottom there. And I would say by Q2 probably at an inflection point.

我們認為它已經非常接近測試版了。根據 6 月 30 日的曲線位置，我們認為一旦到 12 月、1 月左右，貝塔值可能會停止上升。但當然，到 2024 年，整個季度的影響可能會略有下降。我們全年都會減少貸款餘額。大部分貸款餘額下降將發生在第四季度，因此您也可以獲得 2024 年第一季度此類下降的整個季度平均值。因此，僅僅因為這些季度間的流失，我不知道明年第一季度是否會 100% 穩定，但我確實認為它會穩定，如果不是第一季度，可能會在第二季度。就行業定價方式而言，還存在一些其他變量，這可能是潛在的推動因素。但是，是的，我認為當我們跨過這一年時，你已經非常接近底部了。我想說到第二季度可能會出現一個拐點。

Got it. That's helpful. And then obviously, there's a lot going on, on the expense side that nonrecurring between the pension, the modernization. Can you just remind us what a normal expense growth rate is? And is that more likely next year?

知道了。這很有幫助。顯然，在養老金和現代化之間的非經常性支出方面，發生了很多事情。您能否提醒我們正常的費用增長率是多少？明年這種情況更有可能發生嗎？

We typically putting aside some abnormal ebbs and flows like those things relating to pension, I mean we typically think of expenses as being in the 5% range in terms of what we shoot for, but that's going to vary from year-to-year depending on what pressures are on us, things like FDIC can make a difference as that can be elevated for a year or 2 at a time. Again, pension can be a big factor. So I don't think any 1 year is ever going to exactly be the average. But over the cycle, I kind of think about it as probably 4.5% to 5%. Inflation, obviously being a huge factor also.

我們通常會拋開一些異常的潮起潮落，比如與養老金相關的事情，我的意思是，我們通常認為費用在我們目標的 5% 範圍內，但這每年都會有所不同，具體取決於我們面臨的壓力，像 FDIC 這樣的事情可能會產生影響，因為一次可能會增加一年或兩年。同樣，養老金可能是一個重要因素。所以我認為任何一年都不可能完全是平均值。但在整個週期中，我認為可能是 4.5% 到 5%。通貨膨脹顯然也是一個重要因素。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

Quick question on the rate outlook. Obviously, the market expects 1 next week. But if we stay in a higher for longer for the rest of the year and next year, you get the forward curve, you get a couple of cuts. Could you talk about how you think your balance sheet will respond in terms of margin performance given all the hedges you put on?

關於利率前景的快速問題。顯然，市場預計下週1。但如果我們在今年剩餘時間和明年保持更高的水平，你就會得到遠期曲線，你會得到幾次削減。您能否談談考慮到您進行的所有對沖，您認為您的資產負債表在保證金表現方面將如何反應？

Yes. We're pretty neutral right now, Chris, in terms of our interest rate positioning. So we don't think it would be an impact regardless of what the Fed does. We are just the slightest bit to the downside for both an up and down rate scenario. I would say the longer the Fed holds rates at a high level, I do think that's probably puts a little more pressure, the less pressure on our projections because I do think you have the potential for a very, very slow bleed if they're kept high for a very extended period of time in terms of betas and deposit flows. I don't think it's material, but I don't think it's necessarily helpful to have them elevated for an extended period of time.

是的。克里斯，就我們的利率定位而言，我們現在相當中立。因此，我們認為無論美聯儲做什麼，都不會產生影響。無論是利率上行還是下行，我們都只是略微下行。我想說的是，美聯儲將利率維持在高水平的時間越長，我確實認為這可能會給我們的預測帶來更大的壓力，但我們的預測的壓力就越小，因為我確實認為，如果貝塔係數和存款流量在很長一段時間內保持在高位，那麼就有可能出現非常非常緩慢的流失。我不認為這有什麼實質意義，但我認為長期提高它們不一定有幫助。

Great. And then my follow-up on capital. I'm interested in your thoughts on what would need to happen to return to a buyback? Obviously, we know the regulatory is an aspect. But what is it specifically that would be the moment where you would turn it back on?

偉大的。然後是我對資本的後續行動。我很想知道您對如何才能重返回購的想法感興趣？顯然，我們知道監管是一個方面。但是，您重新打開它的具體時刻是什麼？

Yes, I would say 2 things, Chris. One, obviously, stabilization in the overall banking industry. And I think we're doing most of it, but I think that we're not 100% as an industry out of the woods yet, even though things are very stable at Comerica so certainly, stability there would be good. And then obviously, once we understand, receive and understand the new capital rules as soon as we can get comfortable, and we are comfortable right now, but we'll wait and see how comfortable we are once the rules come out. Once we have some degree of certainty that we can hit our targets based on the new rules, I think that would put us in a position to really start thinking about share buyback.

是的，我想說兩件事，克里斯。一是整個銀行業的穩定。我認為我們正在做大部分工作，但我認為作為一個行業，我們還沒有 100% 走出困境，儘管聯信的情況非常穩定，所以當然，穩定會很好。顯然，一旦我們了解、接受並理解新的資本規則，一旦我們感到舒服，我們現在就感到舒服，但我們將拭目以待，看看一旦規則出台，我們會感到多麼舒服。一旦我們在一定程度上確定我們可以根據新規則實現我們的目標，我認為這將使我們能夠真正開始考慮股票回購。

And at this time, there are no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back to Curt Farmer, President, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

而此時，已經沒有其他問題了。我想把電話轉回總裁、董事長兼首席執行官柯特·法默 (Curt Farmer)。

Well, thank you so much, everyone, for dialing in and listening to the call today. As always, we appreciate your interest in our company, and hope you have a good day. Thank you.

非常感謝大家今天撥通電話並收聽電話。一如既往，我們感謝您對我們公司的興趣，並希望您度過愉快的一天。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。