Comerica Inc (CMA) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Comerica Bank's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Comerica Bank 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Kelly Gage, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我將會議交給主持人、投資者關係總監凱利蓋奇 (Kelly Gage)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thanks, Jessie. Good morning, and welcome to Comerica's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman, and CEO, Curt Farmer; Chief Financial Officer, Jim Herzog; Chief Credit Officer, Melinda Chausse; and Chief Banking Officer, Peter Sefzik.

謝謝，傑西。早安，歡迎參加 Comerica 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。參加本次電話會議的有我們的總裁、董事長兼執行長 Curt Farmer、財務長 Jim Herzog、首席信貸長 Melinda Chausse 和首席銀行長 Peter Sefzik。

During this presentation, we will be referring to slides which provide additional details. The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC's website, as well as in the Investor Relations section of our website, comerica.com.

在本次簡報中，我們將參考提供更多詳細資訊的幻燈片。簡報投影片和我們的新聞稿可在美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的網站上以及我們網站 comerica.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

The presentation and this conference call contain forward-looking statements. In that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Please refer to the Safe Harbor statement in today's presentation on slide 2.

本簡報和電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。在這方面，您應該注意可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的風險和不確定性。前瞻性陳述僅代表本簡報發布之日的觀點，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。請參閱今天簡報第 2 頁的安全港聲明。

Also, the presentation and this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures. In that regard, I direct you to the reconciliations of these measures in the earnings materials available on our website, comerica.com.

此外，簡報和電話會議將參考非公認會計準則指標。在這方面，我建議您參閱我們網站 comerica.com 上提供的收益資料中這些措施的對帳。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Curt, who will begin on slide 3.

現在，我將把電話交給 Curt，他從第 3 張幻燈片開始發言。

Thank you, Kelly. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call.

謝謝你，凱利。大家早安，感謝你們參加我們的電話會議。

We are incredibly proud of this quarter's results. We saw an inflection in loans as balances grew consistently throughout the quarter across most of our businesses. While deposits came down modestly, favorable loan, fee income, and expense trends drove a sizable increase in both net income and PPNR. Capitalization remained a strength with an estimated CET1 of 11.94%, well above our 10% strategic target, even after a compelling dividend and higher share repurchases.

我們對本季的業績感到無比自豪。我們看到貸款出現了變化，因為整個季度我們大多數業務的貸款餘額都在持續成長。雖然存款略有下降，但良好的貸款、費用收入和支出趨勢推動淨收入和 PPNR 大幅成長。即使在派發誘人的股息和增加股票回購金額之後，資本化仍然保持強勁，預計 CET1 為 11.94%，遠高於我們 10% 的策略目標。

Sentiment improved as we saw signs of customers beginning to make measured investments in their businesses. While economic and geopolitical uncertainty persists, customers appear more confident in their ability to navigate the environment and make adjustments where necessary.

當我們看到客戶開始對其業務進行有針對性的投資的跡象時，市場情緒有所改善。儘管經濟和地緣政治的不確定性仍然存在，但客戶似乎對自己駕馭環境並在必要時做出調整的能力更有信心。

Beyond our financial results, this was an exciting quarter for payments and deposits as we announced new capabilities and product enhancements for our customers. We believe the milestones we achieved demonstrate the successful execution of our strategy, and we feel ongoing efforts in this space position us well for future growth.

除了財務表現之外，這對於支付和存款來說也是一個令人興奮的季度，因為我們為客戶宣布了新的功能和產品增強功能。我們相信，我們所取得的里程碑證明了我們策略的成功執行，並且我們認為在這一領域的持續努力將為我們未來的成長奠定良好的基礎。

Moving to a summary of the second quarter on slide 4. We reported earnings per share of $1.42, representing an almost 14% increase over the prior quarter. Loans grew throughout the quarter and offset deposit pressures as net interest income remained flat. Credit quality continued to perform well, and both non-interest income and non-interest expense improved, resulting in a lower efficiency ratio. Despite higher profitability, tax expense came down with the benefit of discrete items.

前往投影片 4 上的第二季摘要。我們報告每股收益為 1.42 美元，比上一季增長近 14%。由於淨利息收入保持平穩，整個季度貸款均有所增長，並抵消了存款壓力。信貸品質持續表現良好，非利息收入和非利息支出均有所改善，導致效率比率下降。儘管獲利能力提高，稅費卻因分立項目的收益而下降。

In all, we saw an impressive increase in profitability, and we returned $193 million to common shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, while keeping capitalization strong. We continue to feel well positioned to support our customers and drive growth in our business.

總體而言，我們的獲利能力顯著提升，並透過股票回購和股息向普通股股東返還了 1.93 億美元，同時保持了強勁的資本化。我們始終堅信我們有能力為客戶提供支援並推動業務成長。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Jim to go into more details.

現在，我將把電話轉給吉姆，讓他進一步詳細說明。

Thanks, Curt, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，Curt，大家早安。

Beginning with loans on slide 5, we saw strong growth in the quarter, with average loans up almost 1%, and period end loans up approximately 3%. Importantly, loans in most businesses increased, driven by new loan production for new and existing customers. Although average loans in Equity Fund Services declined, period end trends were up with an improved outlook for private equity and venture capital in both deal activity as well as fundraising.

從幻燈片 5 上的貸款開始，我們看到本季的強勁成長，平均貸款成長近 1%，期末貸款成長約 3%。重要的是，大多數企業的貸款都有所增加，這得益於為新舊客戶提供的新貸款。儘管股票基金服務的平均貸款有所下降，但期末趨勢有所上升，私募股權和風險資本在交易活動和融資方面的前景都有所改善。

Total commitments increased by $400 million, with increases in Environmental Services and Commercial Real Estate, offsetting decreases in Equity Fund Services, and total utilization remained relatively unchanged. Pipeline activity was strong, even after closing new opportunities, reflecting continued positive momentum. Average loan yields came down 3 basis points, as the smaller benefit from BSBY cessation more than offset the tailwind of our maturing swap portfolio.

總承諾金額增加了 4 億美元，其中環境服務和商業房地產的增加抵消了股權基金服務的減少，總利用率保持相對不變。即使在關閉新機會之後，管道活動仍然強勁，反映出持續的積極勢頭。平均貸款收益率下降了 3 個基點，因為 BSBY 終止帶來的收益較小，抵消了我們到期掉期投資組合的順風作用。

On slide 6, average deposits declined just over 1%, with the largest decreases in Retail, Corporate Banking, and Technology & Life Sciences. In select businesses, we continued to see seasonality related to the timing of tax payments, and in others, we saw customers use their funds for working capital or project-related purposes. Non-interest-bearing deposits as a percentage of total deposits remained flat at 38% for the fourth consecutive quarter, demonstrating stability in our compelling funding mix.

在投影片 6 中，平均存款下降了 1% 多一點，其中零售、公司銀行以及科技和生命科學領域的降幅最大。在特定業務中，我們繼續看到與納稅時間相關的季節性，而在其他業務中，我們看到客戶將其資金用於營運資金或與專案相關的用途。無息存款佔總存款的比例連續第四個季度保持在 38% 左右，顯示我們強大的融資結構保持穩定。

Deposit pricing increased 4 basis points, but as we signaled previously, we expected to see some give back in pricing, and this was in line with our expectations. In fact, with a cumulative beta of 67% since the third quarter of last year, we still outperformed the betas that we saw on the way up. We intend to remain diligent and agile with our pricing strategy as we monitor the competitive environment and balance our customers' objectives with our funding needs.

存款定價上漲了 4 個基點，但正如我們之前所暗示的那樣，我們預計定價會有所回落，這符合我們的預期。事實上，自去年第三季以來，我們的累計貝塔值已達到 67%，但仍優於上漲過程中的貝塔值。我們打算在監控競爭環境並平衡客戶目標和我們的融資需求的同時，繼續保持勤勉和靈活的定價策略。

Our deposit portfolio has long been a key strength of our franchise, and we are continuing to make strategic investments to further enhance this competitive funding source. Just this quarter, we delivered two new real-time payment solutions, providing additional flexibility for our customers. We feel these success stories are strong proof points of the effectiveness of our strategy, and we look forward to sharing more in the future.

我們的存款組合長期以來一直是我們特許經營的主要優勢，我們將繼續進行策略性投資，以進一步增強這個具競爭力的資金來源。就在本季度，我們推出了兩種新的即時支付解決方案，為客戶提供了額外的靈活性。我們認為這些成功案例有力地證明了我們策略的有效性，我們期待在未來分享更多。

Our securities portfolio on slide 7 declined with paydowns and maturities, offsetting lower unrealized losses. We continue to expect AOCI improvement over time with the benefit of ongoing paydowns and maturities. Beyond periodic purchases to replace attrition, we are not currently expecting more meaningful securities reinvestments until late this year.

投影片 7 中的證券投資組合隨著償付和到期而下降，抵消了較低的未實現損失。我們繼續預計，隨著持續償還和到期債務，AOCI 將隨著時間的推移而改善。除了定期購買以彌補損失外，我們目前預計直到今年年底才會出現更有意義的證券再投資。

Turning to slide 8. Net interest income remained stable at $575 million for the third consecutive quarter as higher loans offset the impact of deposits. The lower benefit from BSBY cessation was effectively offset by one more day in the quarter. Robust loan growth was supported by a seasonally more expensive liability mix, which contributed to a modest 2-basis-point reduction in net interest margin. We continue to see promising trends for net interest income over time, given the structural tailwinds associated with our swap and securities portfolios, coupled with the objective of balance sheet growth.

翻到幻燈片 8。由於貸款增加抵消了存款的影響，淨利息收入連續第三個季度保持穩定在 5.75 億美元。BSBY 停止所帶來的收益減少被本季多一天的時間有效抵銷。強勁的貸款成長受到季節性較昂貴的負債組合的支持，這導致淨利差小幅下降了 2 個基點。考慮到我們的掉期和證券投資組合的結構性順風，加上資產負債表成長的目標，我們繼續看到淨利息收入隨著時間的推移呈現良好的趨勢。

Credit quality, as shown on slide 9, remained relatively stable. Net charge-offs of 22 basis points were at the low end of our normal range and effectively flat compared to last quarter. Persistent inflation and elevated rates continue to pressure customer profitability in certain businesses, driving expected normalization and criticized loans, largely concentrated in middle market this quarter. Non-performing loans declined to the lowest level that we've seen in the last four quarters and remain well below our long-term average.

如投影片 9 所示，信貸品質保持相對穩定。22 個基點的淨沖銷處於我們正常範圍的低端，與上一季相比基本持平。持續的通貨膨脹和高利率繼續對某些業務的客戶獲利能力造成壓力，推動預期的正常化和受到批評的貸款，本季主要集中在中端市場。不良貸款降至過去四個季度以來的最低水平，並且仍遠低於我們的長期平均水平。

Trade policy developments impacted the economic forecasts, but our coverage ratio remained unchanged at 1.44% since we accounted for a similar level of risk and uncertainty in our qualitative reserves set last quarter. We believe our proven credit discipline, coupled with our relationship model, positions us well to support our customers.

貿易政策的發展影響了經濟預測，但我們的覆蓋率保持不變，為 1.44%，因為我們在上個季度設定的定性儲備中考慮了類似程度的風險和不確定性。我們相信，我們經過驗證的信用紀律加上我們的關係模式使我們能夠很好地支持我們的客戶。

On slide 10, second-quarter non-interest income increased $20 million, with growth across most customer line items as we saw higher loan volumes, less economic uncertainty, and some seasonal benefits. Capital markets income improved $11 million with higher syndication fees and derivative income, which included increased interest rate hedging and foreign exchange activity, in addition to the quarter-over-quarter benefit in CVA. Income related to deferred compensation increased, but was offset in higher expenses. And fiduciary income did increase seasonally. Overall, we were pleased with the improvement in customer-related fee income and look to sustain this momentum into future quarters.

在第 10 張投影片上，第二季非利息收入增加了 2,000 萬美元，由於貸款量增加、經濟不確定性減少以及一些季節性效益，大多數客戶專案均實現成長。資本市場收入增加了 1,100 萬美元，這得益於更高的銀團費用和衍生性商品收入，其中包括增加的利率對沖和外匯活動，以及 CVA 的環比收益。與遞延薪酬相關的收入有所增加，但被更高的支出所抵消。信託收入確實隨季節而增加。總體而言，我們對客戶相關費用收入的改善感到滿意，並希望在未來幾季保持這一勢頭。

Expenses on slide 11 decreased $23 million over the prior quarter, largely due to lower litigation-related expenses and salaries and benefits. Seasonal declines related to incentive compensation more than offset higher deferred compensation and merit increases. We saw a $3 million reduction in expenses from changes in the FDIC special assessment and conversely saw $3 million increases in both outside processing and advertising expenses.

第 11 張投影片上的費用比上一季減少了 2,300 萬美元，主要是由於訴訟相關費用以及工資和福利的減少。與激勵薪酬相關的季節性下降足以抵銷更高的遞延薪資和績效加薪。由於聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 特別評估的變化，我們的費用減少了 300 萬美元，相反，外部加工和廣告費用增加了 300 萬美元。

Notable items favorably impacted expenses in the quarter, including net litigation benefits, gain on sale of assets, and an interest recovery for a state tax matter. Recognizing that we may not see the same benefit from notable items in future quarters, we remain disciplined in our focus to drive improved efficiency over time.

值得注意的項目對本季的支出產生了積極影響，包括淨訴訟收益、資產出售收益以及州稅問題的利息追償。我們認識到，在未來幾季中，我們可能不會從值得注意的專案中獲得相同的好處，因此我們將繼續嚴格控制我們的重點，以推動效率的長期提高。

As shown on slide 12, we continue to favor a conservative approach to capital, producing an estimated CET1 of 11.94%, well above our strategic target, even after returning capital to shareholders. Our strong capital position afforded us the opportunity to redeem preferred stock, avoiding a more punitive coupon reset, but also resulting in a slight negative drag to EPS this quarter from costs related to the preferred stock redemption.

如投影片 12 所示，我們繼續傾向採取保守的資本方法，即使在向股東返還資本後，預計 CET1 仍為 11.94%，遠高於我們的策略目標。我們強大的資本狀況使我們有機會贖回優先股，從而避免了更具懲罰性的息票重置，但也導致本季度與優先股贖回相關的成本對每股收益產生輕微的負面拖累。

Movement in the forward curve reduced unrealized losses in AOCI, contributing to a 22-basis-point improvement in our tangible common equity ratio. Even with a dynamic market, robust loan growth, and the redemption of our preferred stock, we increased our share repurchases to $100 million in the second quarter.

遠期曲線的變動減少了 AOCI 的未實現損失，促使我們的有形普通股權益比率提高了 22 個基點。即使市場活躍、貸款成長強勁且優先股被贖回，我們在第二季仍將股票回購額增加至 1 億美元。

Our outlook for 2025 is on slide 13. We now project full-year 2025 average loans to be flat to down 1%, representing an improvement from prior guidance. Although economic uncertainty persists, customers appear to be navigating the environment and beginning to invest in their businesses.

我們對 2025 年的展望在第 13 張投影片。我們現在預測 2025 年全年平均貸款將持平或下降 1%，比先前的預期有所改善。儘管經濟不確定性仍然存在，但客戶似乎正在適應環境並開始對其業務進行投資。

Second-quarter results exceeded expectations, and pipelines and activity levels remain strong, supporting our outlook for consistent growth in the third and fourth quarters. We expect to see the second-half growth across most of our businesses, excluding commercial real estate.

第二季的業績超乎預期，管道和活動水準依然強勁，支持我們對第三季和第四季持續成長的展望。我們預計下半年大部分業務（商業房地產除外）都將成長。

Our deposit forecast remains unchanged as we expect full year average deposits down 2% to 3% from 2025, with relatively flat customer deposits and a deliberate reduction in brokered CDs. We see positive momentum driving a moderate increase in the third quarter balances, with a bigger uptick in the fourth quarter, benefiting from core deposit growth and seasonality.

我們的存款預測保持不變，因為我們預計全年平均存款將比 2025 年下降 2% 至 3%，客戶存款相對持平，經紀存單數量將有意減少。我們看到積極的勢頭推動第三季餘額溫和成長，第四季將出現更大幅度的成長，受益於核心存款的成長和季節性因素。

Although we anticipate continued success in winning interest-bearing balances, we believe our non-interest-bearing deposit mix will remain in the upper 30% range. Based on our current understanding of the transition strategy, we still do not assume direct express deposit attrition within our 2025 outlook.

儘管我們預計在贏得計息餘額方面將繼續取得成功，但我們相信我們的無息存款組合將保持在 30% 的較高範圍內。根據我們目前對過渡策略的理解，我們仍然不認為 2025 年的展望中會出現直接快速存款流失。

We still project net interest income growth of 5% to 7% in 2025. Loan trends have outperformed expectations, and we expect that to contribute favorably to our outlook. However, we believe deposit trends may offset that benefit, as we have seen slightly lower non-interest-bearing balances with a continued high-rate environment. Further, we expect upward pressure on deposit pricing as we fund robust loan growth and successfully execute on our strategic deposit growth initiatives.

我們仍預期 2025 年淨利息收入將成長 5% 至 7%。貸款趨勢超出預期，我們預計這將對我們的前景產生有利影響。然而，我們認為存款趨勢可能會抵消這一好處，因為在持續的高利率環境下，我們看到無息餘額略有下降。此外，隨著我們為強勁的貸款成長提供資金並成功執行策略性存款成長計劃，我們預計存款價格將面臨上行壓力。

Lastly, while the redemption of preferred stock will be accretive to EPS, it does create a slight drag on net interest income as we lose the benefit of the cash used for redemption. Although we expect these factors contribute to a slight decline in third-quarter net interest income relative to the second quarter, which may push our full-year results to the lower end of our 5% to 7% range.

最後，雖然優先股的贖回將增加每股收益，但它確實會對淨利息收入造成輕微拖累，因為我們失去了用於贖回的現金所帶來的利益。儘管我們預計這些因素將導致第三季淨利息收入相對於第二季略有下降，但這可能會將我們的全年業績推至 5% 至 7% 區間的低端。

We continue to expect full-year 2025 non-interest income to grow 2%. We saw favorable trends this quarter, and we anticipate continued momentum in customer-related fees in the second half of the year. Given the second-quarter benefits of deferred compensation and CVA within capital markets, we expect the third quarter to be relatively flat, but that still assumes customer-related growth quarter over quarter.

我們繼續預期 2025 年全年非利息收入將成長 2%。我們在本季看到了良好的趨勢，並預計下半年客戶相關費用將繼續保持成長動能。考慮到第二季遞延薪資和資本市場內的 CVA 收益，我們預計第三季將相對持平，但仍假設與客戶相關的業務將逐季成長。

Our outlook for full-year 2025 non-interest expenses improve as we now project only 2% growth year over year with the benefit of strong expense performance year to date. As we look to the second half of 2025, we expect to see an increase in the third quarter, driven largely by the impact of second-quarter notable items, seasonality, inflationary pressures, and our ongoing strategic focus to drive revenue. We believe the fourth quarter will be relatively flat to the third quarter, and we remain committed to driving efficiency as we balance longer-term growth and return objectives with prudent expense control.

我們對 2025 年全年非利息支出的展望有所改善，因為我們現在預計同比增長僅為 2%，而今年迄今為止的支出表現強勁。展望 2025 年下半年，我們預計第三季營收將有所成長，這主要得益於第二季值得注意的項目、季節性、通膨壓力以及我們持續推動營收成長的策略重點。我們相信第四季的表現將與第三季相對持平，我們將繼續致力於提高效率，在長期成長和回報目標與審慎的費用控制之間取得平衡。

Considering our strong credit metrics, proven underwriting approach, and consistent portfolio monitoring, we continue to expect full-year net charge-offs to be in the lower end of our normal 20 to 40-basis-point range. Looking at taxes, we saw an improvement in our anticipated 2025 tax rate, now down to approximately 22% excluding discrete items.

考慮到我們強大的信用指標、成熟的承保方法以及持續的投資組合監控，我們繼續預計全年淨沖銷額將處於正常的 20 至 40 個基點範圍的低端。從稅務角度來看，我們發現預期的 2025 年稅率有所改善，目前已降至約 22%（不包括單一項目）。

Moving to capital, we appreciate the flexibility that our conservative capital position affords us, and we intend to maintain a CET1 ratio well above our 10% strategic target throughout 2025. With an estimated CET1 at just under 12%, we feel we have ample capacity to continue share repurchases, and we intend to repurchase approximately $100 million of common stock in the third quarter.

談到資本，我們欣賞保守的資本狀況為我們帶來的靈活性，並且我們打算在 2025 年全年將 CET1 比率維持在遠高於 10% 戰略目標的水平。由於預計 CET1 將略低於 12%，我們認為我們有足夠的能力繼續回購股票，並且我們打算在第三季回購約 1 億美元的普通股。

As we consider future capital decisions, we intend to continue our measured approach, calibrating the size and frequency of future repurchases with expected loan trends. We also plan to monitor the economic environment, our profitability, and the regulatory landscape as these factors can also influence our strategy. Overall, we expect continued momentum to drive balance sheet growth while maintaining strong capital, which together position us to drive favorable returns over time.

在考慮未來的資本決策時，我們打算繼續採取審慎的做法，根據預期的貸款趨勢調整未來回購的規模和頻率。我們也計劃監控經濟環境、我們的獲利能力和監管環境，因為這些因素也會影響我們的策略。總體而言，我們預計持續的勢頭將推動資產負債表成長，同時保持強勁的資本，這將使我們能夠隨著時間的推移獲得可觀的回報。

Now, I'll turn the call back to Curt.

現在，我將把電話轉回給 Curt。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

As I mentioned in my opening remarks, we are incredibly proud of this quarter's results. We feel our conservative capital, credit, and liquidity management provide a solid foundation to consistently support our customers. Further, with our orientation towards great markets, proven commercial model, and long-tenured customer relationships, we feel well positioned to grow alongside the economy as customer demand continues to increase. We saw evidence of that this quarter.

正如我在開場白中提到的，我們對本季的業績感到無比自豪。我們認為，我們保守的資本、信貸和流動性管理為持續支持我們的客戶提供了堅實的基礎。此外，憑藉我們面向廣大市場的定位、成熟的商業模式以及長期的客戶關係，隨著客戶需求的不斷增長，我們有能力與經濟一同成長。我們在本季看到了這項證據。

We expect to benefit from the maturities of our swaps and securities portfolios, which create a structural tailwind to net interest income over the next several years. On top of that, we are continuing to invest strategically in our business to drive responsible growth aligned with our strategy. Earlier this year, we shared tangible examples of investments in small business, middle market, business banking, and payments. And we outlined what we see as potential growth opportunities stemming from those investments.

我們預計將受益於掉期和證券投資組合的到期，這將為未來幾年的淨利息收入帶來結構性推動力。除此之外，我們將繼續對我們的業務進行策略性投資，以推動符合我們策略的負責任的成長。今年早些時候，我們分享了小型企業、中型市場、商業銀行和支付領域投資的具體案例。我們概述了我們認為這些投資帶來的潛在成長機會。

We've already driven successful outcomes from our efforts with a few examples highlighted just this quarter. And we look forward to demonstrating the additional growth potential we see in our business in the coming quarters.

我們的努力已經取得了成功的結果，本季就突出了一些例子。我們期待在未來幾季展示我們業務中看到的額外成長潛力。

Before we go to Q&A, I would like to take just a moment to acknowledge the immense loss of life related to the catastrophic flooding that occurred in Central Texas earlier this month. Our thoughts are with the families and communities devastated by this tragic event.

在我們進入問答環節之前，我想花一點時間來確認本月早些時候發生在德克薩斯州中部的災難性洪水造成的巨大生命損失。我們對遭受此次悲劇影響的家庭和社區深表同情。

With that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指令）Manan Gosalia，摩根士丹利。

Manan, good morning.

馬南，早安。

Hey. Good morning, all. I wanted to start on the NII trajectory. It seems like you're implying that NII will be down in 3Q and then up in the fourth quarter. So I was wondering if you could give us some more color on that.

嘿。大家早安。我想開始走 NII 軌跡。看起來您暗示 NII 將在第三季度下降，然後在第四季度上升。所以我想知道您是否可以對此提供更多詳細資訊。

Yes, good morning, Manan. It's Jim. Happy to go through some of those primary drivers.

是的，早上好，馬南。是吉姆。很高興能夠了解一些主要的驅動因素。

As you said, we do expect a slight decrease in Q3 before continuing our upward trajectory in Q4, which of course, we will continue to see go upward, I think, as we move through 2026. But we do have some particular events occurring in the third quarter that maybe I can just cover at a high level. Number one, I think it's important to understand the tailwinds that we continue to have in Q3 and beyond. The first is loan growth, which we expect to be strong in the foreseeable future. And that's not just in the results, but we see that in the pipeline also.

正如您所說，我們確實預計第三季會略有下降，然後在第四季度繼續呈上升趨勢，當然，我認為，隨著我們進入 2026 年，我們將繼續看到上升趨勢。但我們在第三季確實發生了一些特殊事件，也許我可以高階地報道。首先，我認為了解我們在第三季及以後繼續面臨的順風因素非常重要。首先是貸款成長，我們預計在可預見的未來貸款成長將會強勁。這不僅體現在結果上，我們還在頻道上看到了這一點。

The second is we do expect to benefit from stronger deposits, both in the third quarter and beyond. And that's important because that will help fund our loan growth. And the third is just the continued maturity of our swaps and securities. And that will continue for many quarters to come. So those are positives that we'll see both in the third quarter and will continue.

第二，我們確實預期第三季及以後存款增加將帶來好處。這很重要，因為這將有助於資助我們的貸款成長。第三就是我們的掉期和證券的持續成熟。而這種狀況在未來許多季度仍將持續下去。這些都是我們將在第三季度看到並將持續下去的積極因素。

So we do have some headwinds in the third quarter. And we think they may more than offset the tailwinds. But importantly, we think these are just for the third quarter. And then we think the tailwinds take back over the fourth quarter. The first of these is the redemption of our preferred stock. And as I mentioned in the comments, we do think this is a prudent move and it does benefit EPS. But that benefit is below the net income line. So net interest income will be missing the cash that we use for that redemption.

因此我們在第三季確實面臨一些阻力。我們認為，它們可能會抵消順風的影響。但重要的是，我們認為這些只是針對第三季。然後我們認為第四季順風將再次出現。其中第一項是贖回我們的優先股。正如我在評論中提到的，我們確實認為這是一個謹慎的舉措，並且確實有利於每股收益。但該收益低於淨收入線。因此，淨利息收入將缺少我們用於贖回的現金。

The second is pay rates on deposits. We are expecting deposits to fund very strong loan growth. And we want to make sure we're prepared for that. But we do expect pay rates to take a larger step-up in the third quarter compared to the second. And I'll maybe break that into two components. About half of that pay rate increase is an increase in selective consumer pay rates that we made towards the end of the second quarter, which is really just us staying dialed into the market and calibrating our strategy with the rate curve, which has been pushed out, as well as considering our loan growth that we expect and other factors.

第二是存款支付利率。我們預計存款將為非常強勁的貸款成長提供資金。我們希望確保我們已經為此做好準備。但我們確實預期第三季的工資率將比第二季有更大幅度的上漲。我可能會把它分成兩個部分。大約有一半的支付率成長是我們在第二季末對選擇性消費者支付率的增加，這實際上只是我們保持對市場的關注並根據已經推出的利率曲線調整我們的策略，同時考慮了我們預期的貸款成長和其他因素。

The other half of the increase is we do expect to be very successful in obtaining new customers and deposits in both third and fourth quarters. But in some cases, these deposits are likely to look more like an index type rate. And while they are more expensive than our traditional deposits, we do welcome them as a proactive way to fund what we think will be very robust loan growth in the future. The net of all this is that pay rates will likely step up in the third quarter to at least twice the increase of the 4 bps that you saw in Q2. And that's assuming a flat rate environment.

成長的另一半是我們確實預計在第三季和第四季都能非常成功地獲得新客戶和存款。但在某些情況下，這些存款可能看起來更像是指數類型的利率。雖然它們比我們的傳統存款更昂貴，但我們確實歡迎它們，認為這是一種積極的方式，可以為我們認為未來非常強勁的貸款成長提供資金。所有這些因素的最終結果是，第三季的工資率可能會上升，至少是第二季 4 個基點增幅的兩倍。這是假設一個統一費率的環境。

Now, regarding betas, totally independent of these increases I just talked about, we do expect to have maybe a little bit less than our standard beta for the first FOMC reduction. And just a reminder, we do use the forward curve as of quarter-end. And then I might just refer you back to my opening comments for maybe some smaller drivers. But again, I'd reinforce once we get past the third quarter, we do expect net interest income to be on an upward trajectory as we continue to grow both loans and deposits. And we would expect deposit pay rates to settle down and betas to return back to normal once we get in the fourth quarter.

現在，關於貝塔係數，完全獨立於我剛才談到的這些增加，我們確實預計在 FOMC 首次降息時，貝塔係數可能會比標準貝塔係數略低一些。需要提醒的是，我們確實使用了截至季度末的遠期曲線。然後我可能會請您回顧我的開場白，也許會了解一些較小的驅動因素。但我再次強調，一旦我們度過第三季度，隨著貸款和存款的持續成長，我們確實預期淨利息收入將呈上升趨勢。我們預計，進入第四季後，存款支付率將會穩定下來，貝塔係數也將恢復正常。

So that's really some of the mechanics. Peter, I don't know if there's any color that you want to add there.

這確實就是一些機制。彼得，我不知道你是否想在那裡添加任何顏色。

Well, I might just add, Manan, that -- I mean, we're having really good success growing deposits. And a lot of those as of late tend to be interest bearing opportunities with some of the work that we've been doing in our businesses. And I think the third quarter is probably a little bit of an inflection point.

好吧，馬南，我可能還要補充一點——我的意思是，我們在增加存款方面取得了非常好的成功。最近，我們在業務中所做的一些工作往往帶來了許多產生利息的機會。我認為第三季可能是個轉捩點。

We feel good about what we look like on the other side of it. And we think it's more important to bring on deposits and fund our loan growth than to be necessarily worrying too much about whether or not those are interest bearing or non-interest bearing. And that's a little bit of where the timing is right now. So we view it as a positive outlook about how things are growing for the company.

我們對自己在另一邊的形象感到滿意。我們認為，吸收存款並為貸款成長提供資金比過度擔心這些貸款是否有利息或無利息更為重要。這就是現在的時機。因此，我們認為這是對公司發展前景的積極展望。

And really, I'd say getting ready for 2026 and beyond, just having a good granular deposit base, this is really a good long-term move, we think.

實際上，我想說，為 2026 年及以後做好準備，只要擁有良好的細粒度存款基礎，我們認為這確實是一個很好的長期舉措。

Got it. Okay, that's very thorough. I appreciate that.

知道了。好的，說得很透徹。我很感激。

Maybe if I can ask the same question on the expense side. The guidance implies, I think, if I'm calculating correctly, a $600 million expense number, roughly, for 3Q and 4Q. And that's a meaningful step-up versus 2Q, even if you adjust for some of those one-timers in there. I was wondering if you could help us with how you're thinking about the expense side as well.

也許我可以從費用方面問同樣的問題。如果我計算正確的話，我認為該指引暗示第三季和第四季的支出數字約為 6 億美元。即使你調整了其中的一些一次性事件，與第二季相比，這也是一個有意義的進步。我想知道您是否能幫助我們了解您對費用的看法。

Yeah. It's Jim again. Yeah, your math is essentially correct. Let's keep in mind that we did have an incredible second quarter on expenses, beating our outlook and consensus significantly. And some of that, as you say, and I mentioned earlier, was due to the notable items that we outlined on the expense slide.

是的。又是吉姆。是的，你的數學基本上是正確的。請記住，我們第二季的支出確實令人難以置信，大大超出了我們的預期和共識。正如您所說，我之前也提到過，部分原因是我們在費用幻燈片中列出的值得注意的項目。

I would say there was some project expense that was deferred from the second quarter to the second half of the year. And so as I look at the increase in the second quarter to the third, notable items, assumed not to repeat, is the largest component of that, as we outlined in the slide. But we also do have some seasonalities we typically do in the third quarter and some inflation. And then we do continue to step up our investments for revenue, some of which were simply deferred from the second quarter to the second half of the year.

我想說的是，有些專案費用從第二季延後到了下半年。因此，當我觀察第二季到第三季的成長時，值得注意的項目（假設不會重複）是其中最大的組成部分，正如我們在幻燈片中概述的那樣。但我們確實也有一些季節性因素，通常是在第三季度，以及一些通貨膨脹。然後，我們確實會繼續增加對收入的投資，其中一些只是從第二季推遲到下半年。

So hopefully that gives you a little bit of feel for why we're stepping up and really not out of sync with what we saw for the entire year, actually some nice decreases that we'll pocket for the second quarter. But we still want to continue with the same projects and investment that we'd always originally anticipated.

所以希望這能讓你稍微了解為什麼我們要加大力度，並且與我們全年看到的情況並不同步，實際上，我們將在第二季度實現一些不錯的下降。但我們仍然希望繼續我們最初預期的項目和投資。

That's great. Thanks so much, Jim.

那太棒了。非常感謝，吉姆。

Jon Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Jon Arfstrom。

Good morning, Jon.

早安，喬恩。

Hey. Good morning. Sorry to Jim or Peter, if you referenced it, but can you give us a little bit more on the pipelines and activity? It sounds like things are a lot better, but is there a way to quantify it? And how should we think about longer-term loan growth potential beyond maybe a quarter or two?

嘿。早安.抱歉，吉姆或彼得，如果你們引用了它，但你們能否給我們一些有關管道和活動的更多信息？聽起來情況好多了，但是有沒有辦法量化它呢？我們應該如何看待一兩個季度之後的長期貸款成長潛力？

Yeah. Jon, it's Peter. Quantifying it, probably a little harder to do, but I would say that from the last quarter, definitely seems like we've seen improvement. So our manager surveys came in more positive, which we thought they would, and I articulated at the conference earlier this quarter.

是的。喬恩，我是彼得。量化它可能有點困難，但我想說，從上個季度來看，我們似乎確實看到了改善。因此，我們的經理調查結果更加積極，這也是我們所期望的，我在本季早些時候的會議上也表達了同樣的看法。

So pretty much across the board, we saw some really good uptick in loan growth, our pipelines grew, and we're feeling pretty good about the second half of the year. So despite a lot of the things that you feel like you're hearing across the country, and there certainly seems to be noise, but I think your average middle market customer base is progressing forward and figuring out how to navigate it.

因此，從各方面來看，我們都看到貸款成長出現了非常好的上升趨勢，我們的管道也得到了成長，我們對下半年的前景非常樂觀。因此，儘管您感覺到全國各地都聽到了很多聲音，而且似乎確實存在噪音，但我認為您的普通中端市場客戶群正在向前發展並想辦法應對。

I'm a little hesitant to talk about 2026. We're not putting out any sort of outlooks for '26, but I would say that it feels like momentum is picking up across the board for us. And so I think that we'll continue to see good loan growth throughout the year.

我有點猶豫是否要談 2026 年。我們沒有對 26 年做出任何展望，但我想說，我們感覺勢頭正在全面回升。因此我認為全年貸款將繼續保持良好的成長勢頭。

And again, I feel like we benefit from being in some great markets. We've got a great diverse geographic base. You have seen some of the impacts in Michigan to the economy, to the auto space, but I don't know that that's been a terribly strong headwind for us. So really, across the board, I think we feel pretty good about it.

而且我再次感覺到，進入一些偉大的市場讓我們受益匪淺。我們擁有極為多樣化的地理基礎。你已經看到了密西根州經濟和汽車領域受到的一些影響，但我不知道這對我們來說是否是一個非常強大的阻力。所以實際上，總體而言，我認為我們對此感覺相當良好。

If I were to try to quantify it, Jon, I would say, we're still not back to kind of pre-SVB pipeline numbers, but we are going in that direction. And I would say it probably feels better than it has in a while as far as the activity level since the SVB situation. And so hopefully that continues absent some sort of major event in the economy that we don't see at the moment.

喬恩，如果我嘗試量化它，我會說，我們還沒有回到矽谷銀行之前的管道數量，但我們正朝著這個方向前進。我想說，就 SVB 事件以來的活動水平而言，感覺可能比以前好一些。因此，希望這種情況能夠持續下去，除非發生我們目前沒有看到的重大經濟事件。

Okay, good. That's helpful. And then Jim, back on net interest income with some of your prepared comments and the preferred redemption, you pointed us to the lower end, the 5% to 7% range. How do you get off that 5%? What needs to happen to generate NII growth that's maybe midpoint or higher in the range? Thank you.

好的，很好。這很有幫助。然後，吉姆，回到淨利息收入問題，根據您準備好的一些評論和優先贖回，您向我們指出了較低的範圍，即 5% 到 7% 的範圍。如何擺脫那 5%？要使 NII 成長達到該範圍的中間值或更高，需要做些什麼呢？謝謝。

Jon, if you're talking shorter term, this outlook doesn't necessarily contemplate a preferred issuance. We're being very patient there, obviously that would help. But I continue to say in this rate environment, probably in the short term, I think that non-interest-bearing deposits is still very much an X factor. So I would say seeing some stability and an inflection point in non-interest-bearing deposits, which is something we and from what I can tell this quarter, the whole industry is still kind of waiting for, I think that would be probably the biggest X factor out there.

喬恩，如果你談論的是短期，那麼這種前景不一定會考慮優先發行。我們非常有耐心，顯然這會有所幫助。但我還是要說，在這種利率環境下，可能在短期內，我認為無利息存款仍然是個不確定因素。因此，我想說，看到無息存款出現一定的穩定性和拐點，這是我們以及從我本季度所知的情況來看，整個行業仍在等待的事情，我認為這可能是最大的 X 因素。

Okay. All right. Thank you very much.

好的。好的。非常感謝。

Thanks, Jon.

謝謝，喬恩。

David George, Baird.

大衛喬治，貝爾德。

Morning, David.

早安，大衛。

Hey, guys. Good morning. Question for Curt. I agree, Curt, with a lot of things you said about Comerica as it relates to your reputation in the market. You've got experienced bankers, you didn't need to raise capital during the GFC. So a lot of great things about your company.

嘿，大家好。早安.向 Curt 提問。我同意你，Curt，關於 Comerica 的許多看法，因為這關係到你在市場上的聲譽。你們有經驗豐富的銀行家，所以在全球金融危機期間不需要籌集資金。貴公司有很多優點。

And it's funny, I was going through my file this morning, just looking at your quarter, and I found my initiation report about my last firm. It was October 6, 2000, obviously a long time ago, stock hit with $61 that day, and today, 25 years later, we're at $62. And then if I look at kind of where you were in 2018, '19, the stock is down 30%, 25%, 30%. Revenues are down and expenses are up.

有趣的是，今天早上我正在查看我的文件，只是看了看你的季度，我發現了我上一家公司的入職報告。那是 2000 年 10 月 6 日，顯然是很久以前的事了，那天股價達到了 61 美元，而今天，25 年後，股價為 62 美元。然後，如果我看 2018 年、2019 年的情況，股價下跌了 30%、25%、30%。收入下降，支出上升。

So I just want to kind of understand from you, Curt, what your plan is and what the Board's plan is to improve the performance of the company. And obviously there's a market today, obviously with Huntington doing a deal in Texas, there's a pretty substantial private market for banks in your backyard. So just kind of how you're thinking about longer-term improvement of performance and enhancing shareholder value. Thanks.

因此，Curt，我只是想從您那裡了解一下，您的計劃是什麼，董事會的計劃是什麼，以提高公司的業績。顯然，今天存在一個市場，顯然亨廷頓在德克薩斯州達成了一項交易，在你家後院有一個相當大的銀行私人市場。所以你是如何考慮長期改善績效和提高股東價值的。謝謝。

Thanks, David. There was a lot of information in that question, so let me try to address it for you.

謝謝，大衛。這個問題包含很多信息，所以讓我嘗試為您解答。

First of all, if you go back to 2018, '19, those were good years for our company and stock performance. And if you look sort of forward from there, I think everyone's aware of the hurdles that the whole world faced, and certainly the regional banks faced, and we faced as well between COVID and then the significant buildup that we saw in quantitative easing and just the governmental programs that were driving deposits, which was really a peak for us. And we sort of saw record performance in 2022, heading into 2023. And then we had the regional bank crisis, and we, along with others, saw some rationalization in assets as deposits came down. And then we exited a business line, mortgage banker finance, and did some rationalization across the rest of our portfolio.

首先，如果回顧 2018 年、2019 年，對我們公司和股票表現來說都是不錯的年份。如果你從那裡展望未來，我想每個人都知道全世界面臨的障礙，當然還有地區銀行面臨的障礙，我們也面臨著新冠疫情、量化寬鬆政策和推動存款的政府計劃的大幅增加，這對我們來說真的是一個高峰。我們在 2022 年和 2023 年看到了創紀錄的表現。然後我們遭遇了地區性銀行危機，隨著存款減少，我們和其他人一樣，看到了資產的合理化。然後，我們退出了抵押銀行融資業務線，並對其餘投資組合進行了一些合理化調整。

So we've been in a bit of a rebuilding phase since that time. And as we pointed out on the call already, we're seeing nice loan growth, got a good fee income quarter as well, feel really good about sort of our deposit position and ability to fund our lending activity going forward. We're very excited about the structural tailwinds that we've got on NII from a forward perspective.

所以從那時起我們就處於重建階段。正如我們在電話會議上指出的那樣，我們看到了良好的貸款成長，也獲得了良好的費用收入季度，我們對我們的存款狀況和為未來貸款活動提供資金的能力感到非常滿意。從長遠來看，我們對 NII 所獲得的結構性順風感到非常興奮。

Curt, I'm sorry to interrupt, your loans have been flat for a decade.

科特，很抱歉打擾您，您的貸款十年來一直沒有變化。

David, again, I would go back to what I said earlier that if you look at the last five years, which I think is what you were pointing out, I can't speak as much to the 10-year prior period of time, but we did do some rationalization in the portfolio, which brought down loan growth. And I can't go back and sort of recast that. It was what we needed to do at the moment. But you are seeing nice growth in the portfolio now. And I think that's what we're going to lean into.

大衛，我再次回到我之前所說的，如果你看一下過去五年，我想這就是你所指出的，我不能對之前的十年發表太多評論，但我們確實對投資組合進行了一些合理化，從而降低了貸款增長。我無法回到過去並重新塑造它。這正是我們目前需要做的。但現在你看到投資組合出現了良好的成長。我認為這就是我們要傾向的。

And some of the expenses that you're seeing for us is really a fact that we are trying to invest in the business for growth longer term, including our expansion into some new markets, our investment in payments and treasury management, wealth management, some of the other things that we've been doing, capital markets. And we believe that if you look at the efficiency ratio, it improved for the quarter. We generated a nice ROE for the quarter, and we're going to lean into those things on a go-forward basis.

您看到的我們的一些費用實際上是我們試圖投資於業務以實現長期增長，包括向一些新市場的擴張、對支付和資金管理的投資、財富管理，以及我們一直在做的其他一些事情，資本市場。我們相信，如果你看一下效率比率，你會發現本季的效率比率有所提高。我們本季實現了不錯的淨資產收益率 (ROE)，並且我們將繼續保持這一勢頭。

Again, efficiency is going the wrong direction -- okay, and you're happy with the performance and so forth and the Board is as well?

再次，效率正在朝著錯誤的方向發展——好吧，您對錶現等感到滿意，董事會也一樣嗎？

David, I'm always focused on improving performance across the company. And we are always focused on how we can make sure that we're generating positive operating leverage and improving overall all of our performance metrics across the company.

大衛，我始終致力於提升整個公司的績效。我們始終專注於如何確保產生積極的營運槓桿並全面改善整個公司的所有績效指標。

Okay, sounds great.

好的，聽起來不錯。

Bernard Von Gizycki, Deutsche Bank.

伯納德·馮·吉茲基，德意志銀行。

Hey, guys. Good morning. So just on if the $100 billion asset threshold on Cat IV is moved based on inflation and gets to, say, $130 billion, or gets moved to $250 billion, how would either one of these ranges impact your willingness and timeline to pursue a whole bank acquisition if that's in play?

嘿，大家好。早安.因此，如果 Cat IV 的 1000 億美元資產門檻根據通貨膨脹而變化，達到 1300 億美元或 2500 億美元，這兩個範圍中的任何一個將如何影響您進行整個銀行收購的意願和時間表？

Thank you, Bernard. I just would say that, and I've said this consistently the last couple of years, the $100 billion threshold for us is not a governor as to whether we would look at a transaction or not. We believe that the right thing for our shareholders is continue to grow the company.

謝謝你，伯納德。我只是想說，而且過去幾年我一直在說這一點，1000 億美元的門檻對我們來說並不是決定我們是否考慮交易的決定因素。我們相信，對於我們的股東來說，正確的做法是繼續發展公司。

And we've been focused on organic growth and feel like we're seeing good organic opportunities across the enterprise. We've been a patient acquirer, something which still have to make a lot of strategic sense for us, be aligned with one of our primary geographies, be a good cultural fit, et cetera. So we're aware of the landscape and will continue to be aware of the landscape, but believe that we've got good growth dynamics based on organic as our primary focus.

我們一直專注於有機成長，並且感覺整個企業都出現了良好的有機成長機會。我們一直是一個有耐心的收購者，但這對我們來說仍然需要具有很大的戰略意義，與我們的主要地理區域之一保持一致，具有良好的文化契合度，等等。因此，我們了解形勢，並將繼續了解形勢，但相信我們已獲得以有機為主要關注點的良好成長動力。

Okay. And just as a follow-up, you noted some seasonality in deposits during the quarter, and I think you've pointed out the customer utilization of funds for funding capital investments. Do you expect to see clients utilize deposit funds like kind of in the second half? Like what are you hearing or expecting on this front?

好的。作為後續問題，您注意到本季存款存在一些季節性，我認為您已經指出了客戶利用資金進行資本投資的情況。您是否預期下半年客戶會以類似的方式使用存款資金？您在這方面聽到了什麼消息或期待了什麼？

Bernard, I think you may see a little bit of that still in this higher rate environment. But when I look at both some of the initiatives we have going on for deposit gathering, as well as seasonality, I do think that some of that use of funds will probably get kind of drowned out in the noise. So I don't expect it to be a significant factor going forward.

伯納德，我認為在這種高利率環境下你可能仍會看到一些這樣的情況。但是，當我審視我們正在採取的一些存款收集舉措以及季節性因素時，我確實認為，部分資金的使用可能會被淹沒在噪音之中。所以我不認為這會成為未來的重要因素。

We'll continue to monitor that, but we did have an inflection point in the second quarter. I will point out that June was higher than May. So the seasonality did, as well as the use of funds netting against with that, did continue maybe a little later than I would have hoped for. But again, we saw an inflection point halfway through the quarter and just feels like we have some really good trajectory.

我們將繼續監控這一點，但第二季度確實出現了一個拐點。我要指出的是，六月比五月高。因此，季節性因素以及資金淨額的使用確實比我希望的要晚一些。但我們再次看到本季中期出現了一個轉折點，感覺我們的發展軌跡非常好。

And I'll just say, even as I look at the first half of July, that seems to continue. So I think we've kind of moved past a lot of it. And I think some of these positive tailwinds with deposits will probably drown out any use of funds going forward is what I'm kind of seeing here.

我只想說，即使回顧七月上半月，這種情況似乎仍在繼續。所以我認為我們已經克服了很多困難。我認為，存款方面的一些積極因素可能會淹沒未來的任何資金使用，這就是我在這裡看到的。

Okay, great. Thanks for taking my questions.

好的，太好了。感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·梅奧。

Good morning, Mike.

早上好，麥克。

Good morning. The short question is on the first-quarter call, Curt, you repeated as you've done several times that Comerica has to earn its right to be independent every day. And that makes sense. So under what conditions would you say that Comerica has not earned the right to remain independent every day? And this is part of the whole industry debate of skill versus scale. And I guess you've had 135 years at Comerica. And the question is, at what point do you say, you know what, we need to scale this up?

早安.簡短的問題是，在第一季的電話會議上，Curt，您曾多次重複說，Comerica 必須每天贏得獨立的權利。這是有道理的。那麼，您認為在什麼情況下 Comerica 沒有贏得保持日常獨立的權利呢？這是整個行業關於技能與規模的爭論的一部分。我想您在 Comerica 已經工作了 135 年了。問題是，什麼時候你會說，你知道嗎，我們需要擴大規模？

The longer version of this question is, as you know, I think you were in the room, Curt, when I came to the annual meeting a decade ago, and there were like 5 to 10 other institutional investors in the room and I asked the same question. And I recognize your comments today that, rebuilding, you have some tailwinds, quarter to quarter, EPS is up, loan growth is up, period end loans are up. But when you just look at the data objectively, you say your efficiency ratio is still worst in class, 68% year to date. That's where it was when I came to the meeting a decade ago. The returns are about worst in class, only better than Citigroup, which coincidentally, I recommend still, so it's not always the death knell.

這個問題的詳細版本是，如你所知，Curt，我想十年前我參加年度會議時你就在房間裡，房間裡還有 5 到 10 個其他機構投資者，我問了同樣的問題。我認同您今天的評論，即在重建過程中，您遇到了一些順風，每個季度的每股收益都在上升，貸款增長在上升，期末貸款也在上升。但當你客觀地看數據時，你會發現你的效率率仍然是最糟糕的，今年迄今為 68%。十年前我參加會議時的情況就是這樣。其回報率在同類中是最差的，僅比花旗集團好，巧合的是，我仍然推薦花旗集團，所以這並不總是喪鐘。

But the stock performance, as was brought up earlier, has also underperformed. And I always stack rank -- I've done this for 25 years, I've stack ranked the CEO stock performance versus the BKX. And unfortunately, Curt, you're at the bottom by a big margin. Since you arrived, the stock's down 21%, the BKX up 43%, the S&P is up a lot more. So maybe the market's really missing a story here. Maybe you're about to have a hockey stick improvement. So if you could just educate me on why, a decade later, Comerica has continued to earn the right to remain independent. Thank you.

但如同先前提到的，股票表現也不佳。我總是進行排名——我已經做了 25 年了，我將 CEO 股票表現與 BKX 進行排名。不幸的是，Curt，你處於墊底的位置，差距很大。自您到來以來，該股下跌了 21%，BKX 上漲了 43%，標準普爾指數上漲幅度更大。因此，市場或許真的忽略了一個故事。也許您即將獲得曲棍球棒式的進步。所以，如果您能告訴我為什麼十年後，Comerica 仍然能夠獲得保持獨立的權利。謝謝。

Mike, that's a lot as well in your question there, but I'll try to respond to it here.

麥克，你的問題也有很多這樣的問題，但我會嘗試在這裡回答。

I go back to what I said earlier and you echoed, which is that we are always aware of the need to perform at an acceptable level and relative to our peer group and relative to the market overall. And certainly the regional bank space, as well as the bank space across the board, has had some volatility and equity performance this year, but we've seen a nice rebound in the last 60 days or so as the KBW and the KRE has as well.

我回到我之前說過的、你們也贊同的話，那就是我們始終意識到需要表現在一個可接受的水平上，相對於我們的同行和相對於整個市場。當然，今年地區性銀行以及整個銀行領域都經歷了一些波動和股票表現，但在過去 60 天左右，我們看到 KBW 和 KRE 也出現了良好的反彈。

We have done a lot, I think, over the last number of years to take some of the volatility out of our performance relative to interest rate sensitivity. And now, we are starting to benefit, I think, from some of what we put in place, as well as we got some of the structural tailwinds that I talked about earlier, that we believe will continue to position us well from a performance standpoint, NII, et cetera, the next couple of years. We continue to see nice growth across the portfolio on the lending side, and we're going to lean into that in the second half of the year.

我認為，過去幾年我們做了很多工作來消除與利率敏感度相關的業績波動。現在，我認為，我們開始受益於我們所實施的一些措施，以及我之前提到的一些結構性順風，我們相信，從性能、NII 等角度來看，這些措施將在未來幾年繼續為我們帶來良好的地位。我們繼續看到貸款的投資組合呈現良好的成長勢頭，我們將在今年下半年繼續保持這種勢頭。

And again, I can't go back and sort of replay past performance, but what I am charged with doing is protecting the company overall, serving our clients, making sure that we have the appropriate risk profile, the right capital, the right credit metrics and credit expertise that we bring sort of day in and day out, protecting our franchise, the markets that we serve, and doing a good job for our customers, our employees, and our shareholders longer term. And I think we're well positioned from that perspective.

再次強調，我無法回到過去重演過去的表現，但我的職責是保護整個公司，服務我們的客戶，確保我們擁有適當的風險狀況、正確的資本、正確的信用指標和我們日復一日帶來的信用專業知識，保護我們的特許經營權、我們服務的市場，並為我們的客戶、員工和股東提供長期良好的服務。我認為從這個角度來看我們處於有利地位。

And you mentioned 135 years, it's actually 175 years. But having said all that, we are aware of the landscape, and we are always going to do the right thing by our shareholders, and we understand that there's a lot of issues with our fiduciary responsibility related to that. And so does our management team, and so does our Board, and we take the return to our shareholders very, very seriously.

你提到的 135 年，其實是 175 年。但話雖如此，我們也意識到了局勢，我們始終會為股東做正確的事情，我們也明白與此相關的信託責任存在許多問題。我們的管理團隊和董事會也是如此，我們非常非常重視股東的回報。

I appreciate that. I think also last quarter, you said you did not expect a lot of mergers in the next 12 to 18 months. If there started to be mergers, would that kind of change your thought process and to what degree? And why don't you expect many mergers in the 12 to 18 months or maybe that's changed in the last three months?

我很感激。我想上個季度您也說過，您預計未來 12 到 18 個月內不會發生大量合併。如果開始發生合併，這會改變您的思考過程嗎？改變的程度如何？為什麼您不認為未來 12 到 18 個月內會出現很多合併，或者這種情況在過去三個月內發生了變化？

Yeah. Mike, I may have overstated that when I was asked the question. I was asked about the industry overall at the end of -- at the first quarter call. And you might recall at that time, we certainly recall lots of volatility, whether it's geopolitical or the trade policy and the uncertainty related to it. And it just felt like that that might -- sometimes when you're heading into uncertainty or possibly a credit cycle, et cetera, across the industry, that can tend to dampen M&A.

是的。麥克，當我被問到這個問題時，我可能誇大了這一點。在第一季電話會議結束時，我被問及整個行業的情況。您可能還記得，當時我們確實記得很多波動，無論是地緣政治還是貿易政策以及與之相關的不確定性。感覺就像是——有時當你進入不確定性或信貸週期等整個行業時，這可能會抑制併購。

But since then, we've seen a couple of deals happen. It feels like that maybe there's a more favorable regulatory environment around M&A. And as the noise settles down some around economic certainty, geopolitical certainty, et cetera, I think it is likely that you're probably going to see a bit more M&A than we've seen previously. And it just continues to factor into what we think about overall, whether we be an acquirer or continue to pursue our organic growth, or whether we'd ever entertain something from a third party.

但自那時起，我們已經看到幾筆交易的發生。感覺併購方面的監管環境可能更有利。隨著經濟確定性、地緣政治確定性等方面的噪音逐漸平息，我認為你可能會看到比以前更多的併購。它只是繼續影響我們的整體考慮，無論我們是作為收購者還是繼續追求有機成長，或者我們是否會考慮第三方的某些事情。

All right. Well, we'll watch that volatility and your rebuilding and the tailwinds. Thank you.

好的。好吧，我們會關注這種波動、重建和順風。謝謝。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Anthony Elian, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安東尼·埃利安。

Yeah. Hi, everyone. On the 4Q NII guide of up versus 3Q, Jim, you called out earlier some of the deposit pricing headwinds you expect in the third quarter. Pay rates will likely be twice the level we just saw. But I'm curious, why would those headwinds ease in 4Q, particularly if you expect both strong customer deposit growth in 4Q and the momentum in loan growth is expected to persist?

是的。大家好。吉姆，關於第四季度 NII 相對於第三季度的上升趨勢，您之前提到了預計第三季將出現一些存款定價阻力。工資率可能會是我們剛才看到的水平的兩倍。但我很好奇，為什麼這些不利因素會在第四季度有所緩解，特別是如果您預計第四季度客戶存款將強勁增長，且貸款增長勢頭預計將持續下去？

Yeah. Good morning, Tony. I really look at what we did towards the end of the second quarter with consumer pricing as kind of a reset, recognizing that the forward curve has been pushed out. So I kind of think of that as a one-time reset. We would expect to kind of track the market once we get into any kind of fourth-quarter environment, whether that be the FOMC cut or just the general competitive environment.

是的。早安，托尼。我確實將我們在第二季末對消費者定價的所作所為視為一種重置，並認識到遠期曲線已被推遲。所以我認為這是一次性重置。一旦進入第四季的任何環境，我們預計都會追蹤市場，無論是聯邦公開市場委員會降息還是一般的競爭環境。

We probably -- to be said, we see any increase in deposit pay rates in the fourth quarter. I think it would be accompanied by higher deposits, which that net would be a benefit for the bank. But again, it kind of views what's going on in the third quarter. It's a little bit of a one-time reset here. Again, we're not going to be sending out $400 million of preferred cash every quarter either. So there are just some unique events that are occurring as we move from the second quarter to the third quarter.

我們可能會看到第四季存款支付利率上升。我認為這會帶來更高的存款，這對銀行來說是一筆福利。但再次，它在某種程度上反映了第三季發生的情況。這有點像是一次性重置。再說一次，我們也不會每季發放 4 億美元的優先現金。因此，當我們從第二季進入第三季時，會發生一些獨特的事件。

Okay. And then if I look at the bottom of slide 3, you're calling out payments products such as real-time solutions, embedded finance. We had the House pass the stablecoin bill last night. I'm just thinking about the additional opportunities that could exist with stablecoins, complementing everything you're doing on payments and the role that banks could play. Is this a technology you guys are considering leveraging down the road, or is it still too early? Thank you.

好的。然後，如果我看幻燈片 3 的底部，你正在調用諸如即時解決方案、嵌入式金融之類的支付產品。昨晚眾議院通過了穩定幣法案。我只是在思考穩定幣可能存在的額外機會，補充你在支付方面所做的一切以及銀行可以發揮的作用。這是你們未來考慮利用的技術嗎，還是現在還太早？謝謝。

Tony, it's Peter. I think I would probably say it's a little too early to know necessarily. We do feel positioned to be involved in it. We're a member of the clearing house. We do feel like we have the right talent, both in our technology side, as well as our product side. And we do think we're making really good investment in payments to be involved.

東尼，我是彼得。我想，我可能會說現在知道還太早。我們確實覺得自己有能力參與其中。我們是清算所的成員。我們確實覺得我們擁有合適的人才，無論是在技術方面，還是在產品方面。我們確實認為我們在支付方面做出了非常好的投資。

Now, so what this looks like though, I think is still a little bit to be determined. And I think that we are monitoring the situation. We're going to stay really close to it. We've got the right products, talent and awareness. And so -- but I think the answer to your question is, at least from our perspective, it's a little still too early to tell how this is going to play out, really for the industry and for us.

現在，這看起來是什麼樣子，我認為還有一點需要確定。我認為我們正在監視局勢。我們將密切關注此事。我們擁有合適的產品、人才和意識。所以——但我認為你問題的答案是，至少從我們的角度來看，現在判斷這件事對整個行業和我們自己來說會如何發展還為時過早。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥格拉蒂，KBW。

Morning, Chris.

早上好，克里斯。

Hey, how's it going? This is Andrew Leischner on for Chris McGratty. In your prepared remarks, I know you mentioned this here, but it looks like as an industry depository pricing is getting a little more difficult and competition is picking up. I know you've outperformed your beta from the way up, but can you provide an update on what you're seeing here in terms of repricing and expectations for any repricing opportunities going forward? Thanks.

嘿，最近怎麼樣？這是克里斯麥格拉蒂 (Chris McGratty) 的安德魯萊施納 (Andrew Leischner)。在您準備好的發言中，我知道您在這裡提到了這一點，但看起來，作為一個行業，存管定價變得越來越困難，競爭也在加劇。我知道您從一開始就表現優於您的貝塔，但您能否提供您在重新定價方面看到的最新情況以及對未來任何重新定價機會的預期？謝謝。

I'm not sure I heard that question.

我不確定我是否聽到了這個問題。

With deposit pricing, is that correct?

存款定價是否正確？

Yeah, just an update on what you're seeing in terms of your near-term expectations for deposit cost repricing and any opportunities you're seeing going forward.

是的，我只是就您對存款成本重新定價的近期預期以及未來看到的任何機會進行更新。

I would probably refer you back to my answer previously, where I kind of sized up where I think the third-quarter increases are coming from and what the drivers of those are. It does continue to be a very competitive environment for deposits. I think we saw that with some of the banking releases so far this week. But yeah, I'm not sure I would add a lot onto what I'd mentioned a few minutes ago in terms of just where we see deposit pricing going.

我可能會請您回顧我先前的回答，我大致評估了第三季成長的來源以及推動因素。存款環境的競爭確實依然非常激烈。我想我們從本週迄今為止發布的一些銀行業數據中看到了這一點。但是是的，我不確定我是否會在幾分鐘前提到的存款定價方面添加很多內容。

Yeah. And I guess I might just say, in general, whether it's loan pricing or deposit pricing, it's extremely competitive in all of the markets. And I think that we stay really focused on doing what we can to grow our customer base and make sure we've got the right products and services available to our customers that they need. So managing pricing on either side of the balance sheet is something we pay really close attention to. And I think it is a extremely competitive environment right now on both of them.

是的。我想我只能說，總的來說，無論是貸款定價還是存款定價，所有市場的競爭都非常激烈。我認為我們會繼續專注於盡我們所能擴大我們的客戶群，並確保我們能夠為客戶提供他們所需的正確產品和服務。因此，我們非常關注資產負債表兩邊的定價管理。我認為目前雙方的競爭都非常激烈。

Okay, great. Thank you. And then just on credit, to provide a little more color on the increase in criticized loans this quarter, I think in the deck, it looks like the leveraged loan criticized has moved up a little higher. So any thoughts there? Thanks.

好的，太好了。謝謝。然後就信貸而言，為了對本季受到批評的貸款增加提供更多的說明，我認為在簡報中，受到批評的槓桿貸款似乎有所上升。那麼有什麼想法嗎？謝謝。

Chris, this is Melinda. Yeah, the increase in the criticized this quarter, I would call it a moderate increase. As Jim mentioned in his prepared comments, the vast majority of that was in our core middle market book, and honestly, it was concentrated in three credits. And the commonality in those three credits is they all have some kind of a consumer component that the end customer was a consumer. And so there's been some stress there. One, I would call more luxury goods and the other in two segments that are under some pressure already. So that would be the liquor industry and then transportation, freight and things like that.

克里斯，這是梅琳達。是的，本季受到批評的成長，我稱之為適度成長。正如吉姆在他準備好的評論中提到的那樣，其中絕大部分都在我們的核心中端市場書籍中，老實說，它集中在三個學分中。這三種信貸的共同點是它們都具有某種消費者成分，而最終客戶就是消費者。因此那裡存在一些壓力。一方面，我認為更多的是奢侈品，另一方面，兩個領域已經承受著一定的壓力。那就是酒類產業，然後是運輸、貨運等等。

So that's -- really, the commonality is the consumer is the end customer, and then all of them are pressured by this longer higher-for-longer rate environment, which is obviously putting pressure on profitability. So other than those commonalities, the book has continued to perform quite well.

所以，實際上，共同點是消費者是最終客戶，然後他們都受到這種長期高利率環境的壓力，這顯然給獲利能力帶來了壓力。因此，除了這些共同點之外，這本書的表現一直相當不錯。

And what you don't really see in the charts is what's cycling in and out of criticized. So we have credits that migrate from a downward perspective, but we also have a lot of credits that continue to get better and are able to move back into that past category. So I'm not really seeing anything that I would call underlying themes other than what we've been really telegraphing all year, which is the higher-for-longer interest rates and the inflationary pressures.

而你在圖表中看不到的是哪些內容不斷受到批評。因此，我們有一些學分從向下的角度遷移，但我們也有很多學分繼續變得更好並能夠回到過去的類別。因此，除了我們全年一直在傳遞的訊息，即長期較高的利率和通膨壓力之外，我並沒有看到任何可以稱之為潛在主題的東西。

Okay, great. Thank you for taking all the questions.

好的，太好了。感謝您回答所有問題。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Thank you. There are no additional questions at this time. So I'd like to pass the floor back over to Mr. Farmer for closing comments.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。因此，我想將發言權交還給法默先生，請他發表最後評論。

Thank you very much, and thank you again for joining our call today.

非常感謝，再次感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。

Ladies and gentlemen, once again, we thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，我們再次感謝你們的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路並享受美好的一天。