Comerica Inc (CMA) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to Comerica first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

問候並歡迎參加 Comerica 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Kelly Gage, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興介紹您的主持人、投資者關係總監凱利蓋奇 (Kelly Gage)。謝謝。請繼續。

Thanks, Donna. Good morning and welcome to Comerica's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman and CEO, Curt Farmer; Chief Financial Officer, Jim Herzog; Chief Credit Officer, Melinda Chausse; and Chief Banking Officer, Peter Sefzik.

謝謝，唐娜。早上好，歡迎參加 Comerica 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。參加本次電話會議的有我們的總裁、董事長兼執行長 Curt Farmer；財務長 Jim Herzog；首席信貸長 Melinda Chausse；以及首席銀行長 Peter Sefzik。

During this presentation, we will be referring to slides which provide additional detail. The presentation slides in our press release are available on the SEC's website, as well as in the Investor Relations section of our website comerica.com.

在本次簡報中，我們將參考提供更多細節的幻燈片。我們的新聞稿中的簡報幻燈片可在美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的網站上找到，也可在我們網站 comerica.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

The presentation in this conference call contains forward-looking statements. In that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議的陳述包含前瞻性陳述。在這方面，您應該注意可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的風險和不確定性。前瞻性陳述僅代表本簡報發布之日的觀點，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Please refer to the safe harbor statement in today's earnings presentation on slide 2. Also, the presentation and this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures. In that regard, I direct you to the reconciliation of these measures in the earnings materials that are available on our website, comerica.com.

請參閱今天收益報告中投影片 2 上的安全港聲明。此外，簡報和電話會議將參考非公認會計準則指標。在這方面，我建議您參閱我們網站 comerica.com 上提供的收益資料中這些措施的對帳。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Curt, who will begin on slide 3.

現在，我將把電話交給 Curt，他從第 3 張幻燈片開始發言。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. This was a strong quarter for Comerica. We exceeded expectations across a number of categories resulting in higher profitability over the prior quarter. Although we saw seasonal deposit outflows, non-interest bearing balances performed well and contributed to net interest income outperforming guidance.

大家早安，感謝你們參加我們的電話會議。對於 Comerica 來說這是一個強勁的季度。我們在多個類別中的表現超出了預期，盈利能力比上一季有所提高。儘管我們看到季節性存款流出，但無息餘額表現良好，並促使淨利息收入超出預期。

Movement in the rate curve benefited our tangible common equity ratio and drove an increase in our book value at quarter end. Conservative capital management remained a priority, and we grew our estimated CET1 ratio while returning $143 million to common shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

利率曲線的變動有利於我們有形的普通股權益比率，並推動了季度末帳面價值的增加。保守的資本管理仍然是我們的首要任務，我們提高了預計的 CET1 比率，同時透過股票回購和股息向普通股股東返還 1.43 億美元。

Beyond our financial results, customer sentiment took a step back as the market saw an increase in macroeconomic uncertainty. As our customers await further clarity, we plan to continue confidently executing our relationship model, striving to provide customers with the consistency and support they need to adapt and succeed.

除了財務表現之外，隨著市場宏觀經濟不確定性的增加，客戶情緒也下降。在我們的客戶等待進一步明確資訊的同時，我們計劃繼續自信地執行我們的關係模式，努力為客戶提供適應和成功所需的一致性和支援。

Comerica's legacy is built on successfully managing through cycles, and we feel our unique model positions as well to navigate a dynamic environment. Credit is a competitive differentiator with net charge-offs that have historically outperformed peers. We are regarded for our underwriting discipline. It's in our DNA and it's a crucial part of our culture.

Comerica 的傳統建立在成功管理週期的基礎上，我們認為我們獨特的模型定位也有助於在動態環境中導航。信貸是其競爭優勢之一，其淨沖銷額歷來優於同業。我們因承保紀律而受到尊重。它存在於我們的 DNA 中，是我們文化的重要組成部分。

We benefit from a diversified commercially oriented business mix and have limited consumer exposure. We enjoyed long tenured customer relationships with seasoned leadership teams who in many cases have successfully weathered downturns before. Our capital position provides us flexibility with an estimated CET1 ratio well above our strategic target.

我們受益於多元化的商業導向業務組合，且消費者曝光度有限。我們與經驗豐富的領導團隊保持了長期的客戶關係，這些領導團隊在許多情況下都曾成功度過經濟低迷時期。我們的資本狀況為我們提供了靈活性，預計 CET1 比率將遠高於我們的策略目標。

We have robust liquidity with a strong loan to deposit ratio and have demonstrated our ability to quickly access additional liquidity as needed. We took deliberate steps to minimize our exposure to rate volatility. In fact, if rates decline, we expect to benefit and in the last down rate cycle, we saw outsized deposit growth relative to our peers.

我們擁有強勁的流動性和較高的貸存比，並已證明我們有能力根據需要快速獲得額外的流動性。我們採取了慎重的措施來盡量減少利率波動所帶來的影響。事實上，如果利率下降，我們預期會受益，而在上一次利率下降週期中，我們看到相對於同業而言存款成長幅度過大。

There are still a number of unknowns, and we, along with the market will continue to monitor developments closely. Regardless of the direction of the economy, we feel confident in our playbook and track record to perform competitively.

仍有許多未知數，我們和市場將繼續密切關注事態發展。無論經濟走向如何，我們都對自己的策略和績效充滿信心，能夠保持競爭力。

Moving back to a summary of the first quarter on slide 4. We reported earnings of $172 million or $1.25 per share. Muted loan demand coupled with declines in national dealer services and commercial real estate drove a modest reduction in average loan balances in the quarter.

回到投影片 4 上第一季的總結。我們報告的收益為 1.72 億美元，即每股 1.25 美元。貸款需求低迷，加上全國經銷商服務和商業房地產的下滑，導致本季平均貸款餘額小幅下降。

Good deposit trends, the impact of BSBY cessation and the structural benefit of our swaps and securities portfolios offset the negative impact of lower loans, keeping net interest income flat. These factors also drove a 12 basis point expansion of our net interest margin.

良好的存款趨勢、BSBY 停止的影響以及我們的掉期和證券投資組合的結構性優勢抵消了貸款減少的負面影響，使淨利息收入保持穩定。這些因素也推動我們的淨利差擴大12個基點。

Our credit portfolio remained resilient and despite inflationary pressures continuing to impact customers, our credit metrics remained historically low. Although net charge-offs increased over the very low levels seen post COVID, they remained at the low end of the normal 20 to 40 basis point range.

我們的信貸組合依然保持彈性，儘管通膨壓力持續影響客戶，但我們的信貸指標仍處於歷史低點。儘管淨沖銷額較新冠疫情后的極低水準有所增加，但仍處於正常的 20 至 40 個基點範圍的低端。

Non-interest income grew, but we saw CVA, non-customer related and seasonal pressures across several line items. Non-interest expenses declined as we prioritized efficiency but also saw some slowdown in business activity.

非利息收入有所成長，但我們發現多個項目都面臨客戶價值增值、非客戶相關和季節性壓力。由於我們優先考慮效率，非利息支出下降，但也看到業務活動放緩。

Capital remained a strength with an estimated CET1 ratio of 12.05%, comfortably above our strategic target, again providing us flexibility to navigate the economic environment. In all we felt great about the quarter and until we are positioned to support our customers while delivering results.

資本依然強勁，預計 CET1 比率為 12.05%，遠高於我們的策略目標，這再次為我們提供了應對經濟環境的靈活性。總的來說，我們對本季感到非常滿意，我們有能力在提供成果的同時為客戶提供支援。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Jim for further details.

現在我想將電話轉給吉姆以了解更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Curt and good morning, everyone. Turning to loans on slide 5. Average loans declined less than 1% with lower floor plan balances in national dealer services and pay downs in commercial real estate offsetting modest increases across several businesses.

謝謝，Curt，大家早安。轉到幻燈片 5 上的貸款。平均貸款下降不到 1%，全國經銷商服務中的樓層平面圖餘額較低，商業房地產的還款抵消了多家企業的適度增長。

Dealer’s inventory levels came down from a year-end peak, and at the end of the quarter, they saw an uptick in car sales. Total commitments declined largely due to commercial real estate trends, although commitment utilization increased slightly, this was partially due to dealer in the nature of floor plan facilities.

經銷商的庫存水準從年底的峰值下降，並且在本季度末，他們看到汽車銷量有所上升。總承諾金額下降主要是由於商業房地產趨勢，儘管承諾額利用率略有增加，但這部分是由於經銷商的平面圖設施性質。

Excluding dealer, utilization would have been relatively flat quarter to quarter. Average loan yields came down 12 basis points as lower rates and non-accrual interests more than offset the benefit of the swap portfolio and BSBY cessation.

不包括經銷商，利用率每季都相對持平。由於較低的利率和非應計利息抵消了掉期組合和 BSBY 停止的好處，平均貸款收益率下降了 12 個基點。

On slide 6, average deposits outperform guidance in the first quarter. Lower broker time deposits and seasonal outflows contributed to the $1.4 billion decrease in average balances from the fourth quarter. While seasonality can be challenging to predict, and other macroeconomic factors may influence balances, our strong deposit focus and offerings have helped us to mitigate some of the seasonality we've seen thus far.

在投影片 6 上，第一季的平均存款超過了預期。經紀商定期存款減少和季節性資金流出導致第四季度平均餘額減少 14 億美元。雖然季節性很難預測，而且其他宏觀經濟因素也可能影響餘額，但我們對存款的強烈關注和產品幫助我們減輕了迄今為止看到的一些季節性影響。

Non-interest bearing deposits as a percentage of total remain flat at 38%, continuing to reflect a compelling funding mix. Period-end deposits decreased $2.3 billion. Adjusting for the timing related impact from direct express disbursements, the period-end decline would have been $1.2 billion concentrated almost entirely in interest bearing balances.

無利息存款佔總存款的比例維持在 38% 左右，繼續反映出一種引人注目的融資組合。期末存款減少23億美元。經過直接快速支付的時間相關影響的調整，期末下降幅度將達到 12 億美元，幾乎全部集中在有利息的餘額中。

The proactive execution of our pricing strategy drove a 26 basis points decline in deposit pricing in the first quarter. Our deposit portfolio has long been a key strength of our franchise, and we are continuing to make investments in products, processes and talent to further enhance this competitive funding source.

我們積極實施定價策略，推動第一季存款定價下降了 26 個基點。我們的存款組合長期以來一直是我們特許經營的主要優勢，我們將繼續對產品、流程和人才進行投資，以進一步增強這一具有競爭力的資金來源。

We have already seen results from the strategic focus including efficient pricing, new products and deposit acquisition, and we are encouraged by what we see as the potential for future success.

我們已經看到了策略重點的成果，包括有效定價、新產品和存款獲取，我們對未來成功的潛力感到鼓舞。

Our securities portfolio on slide 7 increased slightly as the benefit of lower unrealized losses at quarter end more than offset paydowns and maturities. We expect future repayments and maturities to continue to benefit AOCI over time. Beyond periodic purchases to replace treasury maturities, we are not currently expecting more meaningful securities reinvestments to begin until late this year.

投影片 7 上的我們的證券投資組合略有增加，因為季度末未實現損失減少的好處超過了償還本金和到期債務的影響。我們預計未來的還款和到期款項將繼續使 AOCI 受益。除了定期購買以替代到期國債外，我們目前預計要到今年年底才會開始更有意義的證券再投資。

Turning to slide 8. Net interest income remains stable quarter over quarter at $575 million. Stronger than expected non-interest bearing deposits and successful deposit pricing strategies helped offset the negative impact of muted loans. We also saw the benefit of our modest fourth quarter securities repositioning.

翻到幻燈片 8。淨利息收入環比保持穩定，為 5.75 億美元。強於預期的無息存款和成功的存款定價策略有助於抵消貸款低迷的負面影響。我們也看到了第四季適度證券重新定位的好處。

With the structural tailwinds associated with our swap and securities portfolios as shown in slide 9, we continue to see promising trends for continued net interest income growth.

如投影片 9 所示，隨著我們的掉期和證券投資組合的結構性順風，我們繼續看到淨利息收入持續成長的良好趨勢。

Moving to slide 10. We continue to believe the successful execution of our interest rate strategy allows us to better protect our profitability from rate volatility. If we do see a reduction in rates as the forward curve predicts, our modeling shows a slight benefit to income.

移至投影片 10。我們仍然相信，成功執行我們的利率策略使我們能夠更好地保護我們的獲利能力免受利率波動的影響。如果我們確實看到利率如遠期曲線預測的那樣下降，我們的模型就會顯示收入略有增加。

That said, we generally consider ourselves to be asset neutral and by strategically managing our swap and securities portfolios while considering the balance sheet dynamics, we intend to maintain our insulated position over time.

話雖如此，我們通常認為自己是資產中立的，並且透過在考慮資產負債表動態的同時策略性地管理我們的掉期和證券投資組合，我們打算長期保持我們的隔離地位。

Our credit portfolio shown on slide 11 performed as expected. Net charge offs increased to 21 basis points, but we're at the low end of our normal range. Consistent with prior quarters, persistent inflation and elevated rates pressured customer profitability, driving continued but expected normalization in criticized loans, and notably they remain well below historical levels.

投影片 11 所示的我們的信貸組合表現符合預期。淨沖銷額增加至 21 個基點，但處於正常範圍的低端。與前幾季一致，持續的通貨膨脹和高利率給客戶獲利能力帶來壓力，導致受批評的貸款繼續但預期地正常化，值得注意的是，這些貸款仍遠低於歷史水平。

Non-performing loans remain well controlled and below our long-term average. The allowance for credit losses was down slightly due to lower loan balances, stable credit metrics and a relatively benign economic forecast at quarter end.

不良貸款仍然得到良好控制，低於我們的長期平均水平。由於貸款餘額較低、信貸指標穩定以及季度末經濟預測相對溫和，信貸損失準備金略有下降。

Given the elevated risks and uncertainty at the time, we increased our qualitative reserves which resulted in maintaining our 1.44% coverage ratio. With the benefit of our relationship model, we plan to stay close to our customers as they better understand potential supply chain implications on their businesses and formulate their action plans. We feel confident in our highly regarded approach to credit and have a proven track record of navigating cycles over many years.

鑑於當時風險和不確定性較高，我們增加了定性儲備，從而維持了 1.44% 的覆蓋率。憑藉我們的關係模式，我們計劃與客戶保持密切聯繫，以便他們更好地了解供應鏈對其業務的潛在影響並制定行動計劃。我們對自己備受推崇的信貸方式充滿信心，並且多年來在信貸週期中擁有良好的業績記錄。

On slide 12, first quarter non-inter income increased $4 million, largely due to the $19 million fourth quarter loss from securities repositioning, which did not repeat in the first quarter. Setting aside that benefit, the largest decline was in the CVA, which reduced $5 million due to rate and commodity price movement.

在投影片 12 上，第一季非內部收入增加了 400 萬美元，這主要是由於第四季度證券重新定位造成的 1,900 萬美元損失，而第一季並未出現這種情況。除該項福利外，降幅最大的是 CVA，由於利率和商品價格變動，其減少了 500 萬美元。

We also saw non-customer and seasonal declines across several other line items. Despite pressures observed in the quarter, we continue to prioritize non-interest income and expect to drive positive momentum in customer-related fees.

我們還發現其他幾個項目的非客戶和季節性下降。儘管本季面臨壓力，我們仍繼續優先考慮非利息收入，並希望推動客戶相關費用的正面動能。

Expenses on slide 13 decreased $3 million over the prior quarter. Seasonally higher salaries and benefits and an increase in the FDIC special assessment were more than offset by the benefit of lower litigation related expenses, charitable contributions and consulting fees.

幻燈片 13 上的費用比上一季減少了 300 萬美元。季節性的工資和福利上漲以及聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 特別評估的增加被較低的訴訟相關費用、慈善捐款和諮詢費所抵消。

We also incurred lower outside processing expenses correlated with lower business activity in products like Card. While we did not see the level of gains related to real estate that we saw in the fourth quarter, we did recognize a sizeable gain on the sale of a leasing asset. Expense discipline remains a key priority as we continue to focus on driving efficiency.

我們也承擔了較低的外部處理費用，這與信用卡等產品的業務活動減少有關。雖然我們沒有看到第四季度那樣的房地產相關收益水平，但我們確實確認了租賃資產出售的可觀收益。我們持續專注於提高效率，因此費用控制仍然是我們的首要任務。

As shown on slide 14, we continue to favor a conservative approach to capital and value the flexibility our position provides us. With an estimated CET1 at 12.05%, we are above our strategic target even after returning capital to shareholders through repurchases and dividends in the quarter.

如投影片 14 所示，我們繼續傾向於採取保守的資本方式，並重視我們的立場為我們提供的靈活性。預計 CET1 為 12.05%，即使本季透過回購和股利向股東返還資本，我們的業績仍高於策略目標。

Movement in the forward curve reduced unrealized losses in AOCI, contributing to an 82 basis point improvement in our tangible common equity ratio and growing book value.

遠期曲線的變動減少了 AOCI 的未實現損失，導致我們的有形普通股權益比率提高了 82 個基點，帳面價值也增加了。

Our outlook for 2025 is on slide 15. Given increased economic uncertainty, we see potential for a wide range of outcomes if market trends differ from our economic assumptions. By way of context, our outlook assumes uncertainty begins to abate and while we are not assuming a recession, we do assume slower GDP growth in 2025 than in 2024.

我們對 2025 年的展望在第 15 張投影片。鑑於經濟不確定性增加，如果市場趨勢與我們的經濟假設不同，我們認為可能會出現各種各樣的結果。從背景來看，我們的展望假設不確定性開始減弱，雖然我們不假設出現經濟衰退，但我們確實假設 2025 年的 GDP 成長速度將低於 2024 年。

We project full year 2025 average loans to be down 1% to 2%. Although pipelines and activity levels remain strong, we expect customers to await better visibility before seeing a stronger uptick in loan demand. Recognizing that may not be immediate, we think the second quarter average loans will continue to move down slightly relative to the first quarter. From there we expect to see loan growth resume in the second half of the year.

我們預計 2025 年全年平均貸款將下降 1% 至 2%。儘管通路和活動水平依然強勁，但我們預計客戶需要等待更好的可見性才能看到貸款需求的強勁成長。認識到這可能不會立即發生，我們認為第二季度的平均貸款將繼續相對於第一季略有下降。我們預計下半年貸款將恢復成長。

Our deposit forecast remains unchanged as we expect lower brokered CDs to drive full year average deposits down 2% to 3% in 2025. We believe the second quarter average deposits will be relatively flat to the first quarter as core deposit growth is offset by a small decline in average brokered time deposits.

我們的存款預測保持不變，因為我們預計較低的經紀存單將導致 2025 年全年平均存款下降 2% 至 3%。我們認為，第二季的平均存款將與第一季持平，因為核心存款的成長被平均經紀定期存款的小幅下降所抵消。

Although we anticipate continued success in winning interest-bearing balances, we believe our non-interest bearing deposit mix will remain relatively consistent in the upper 30% range. Based on our current understanding of the transition strategy, we're still not assuming direct express deposit attrition within our 2025 outlook.

儘管我們預計在贏得計息餘額方面將繼續取得成功，但我們相信，我們的無息存款組合將保持相對穩定，在 30% 的較高範圍內。根據我們目前對過渡策略的理解，我們仍然不會在 2025 年的展望中假設直接快速存款的流失。

We expect full year 2025 net interest income to increase 5% to 7% with the benefit of BSBY cessation, maturing and replace securities and swaps and a more efficient funding mix, all more than offsetting lower average non-interest bearing balances and loans year to year.

我們預計，受 BSBY 終止、到期和替換證券與掉期以及更高效的融資組合的影響，2025 年全年淨利息收入將增長 5% 至 7%，這些都足以抵消逐年降低的平均無息餘額和貸款。

We expect the second quarter to be relatively unchanged from the first quarter as the lower benefit of BSBY cessation is offset by the impact of day count. You can find details on the BSBY cessation in the appendix and excluding BSBY, we expect to see growth in net interest income quarter-to-quarter throughout 2025.

我們預計第二季與第一季相比將基本保持不變，因為 BSBY 停止帶來的較低收益被天數計算的影響所抵消。您可以在附錄中找到有關 BSBY 停止的詳細信息，並且不包括 BSBY，我們預計 2025 年全年淨利息收入將逐季度增長。

We expect full year 2025 non-interest income to increase approximately 2%, considering the negative pressure we saw in the first quarter, including the credit valuation adjustment and deferred compensation. We expect the second quarter to be stronger than the first and project growth in customer-related fee income through the balance of the year.

考慮到第一季看到的負面壓力，包括信用估值調整和遞延補償，我們預計 2025 年全年非利息收入將增加約 2%。我們預計第二季度的表現將強於第一季度，並預計全年客戶相關費用收入將實現成長。

Full year 2025 non-interest expenses are expected to grow 2% to 3% with the objective of managing within this range, subject to the revenue trajectory as we progress through the year. We expect second quarter expenses to pick up slightly from the first quarter as we continue to balance strategic and risk management investments with the drive towards efficiency.

預計 2025 年全年非利息支出將成長 2% 至 3%，目標是控制在這個範圍內，但取決於全年的收入走勢。由於我們繼續在策略和風險管理投資與提高效率之間取得平衡，我們預計第二季度的支出將比第一季略有回升。

Considering our strong credit metrics, proving underwriting approach, and consistent portfolio monitoring, we expect full year net charge offs to be in the lower end of our normal 20 to 40 basis point range.

考慮到我們強大的信用指標、可靠的核保方法和一致的投資組合監控，我們預計全年淨沖銷額將處於正常 20 至 40 個基點範圍的低端。

Moving the capital, we continue to appreciate the importance of a strong capital position, and we intend to maintain a CET1 ratio well above our 10% strategic target throughout 2025. With an estimated CET1 at over 12%, we feel we have ample capacity in our position to continue repurchases in the second quarter, perhaps even as much as we repurchased in the fourth quarter of 2024.

在資本轉移方面，我們繼續重視強大資本狀況的重要性，並打算在 2025 年全年將 CET1 比率維持在遠高於 10% 策略目標的水平。由於預計 CET1 比率將超過 12%，我們認為我們有足夠的能力在第二季度繼續回購，甚至可能達到我們在 2024 年第四季回購的水平。

Given the volatility in the market and the movement in the forward curve, we are not committing to a targeted amount today. Instead, we intend to closely monitor market conditions and execute opportunistically with consideration to economic developments throughout the quarter.

鑑於市場的波動性和遠期曲線的變動，我們今天不會承諾目標金額。相反，我們打算密切關注市場狀況，並根據整個季度的經濟發展適時採取行動。

Stepping back, as we and the market await more clarity, we will continue to stay close to our customers, prioritize responsible loan growth where it makes sense and focus on our deposit gathering efforts while conservatively managing capital expenses and credit.

退一步說，當我們和市場等待更多明朗因素時，我們將繼續貼近客戶，在合理的情況下優先考慮負責任的貸款增長，並專注於我們的存款收集工作，同時保守地管理資本支出和信貸。

Now, I'll turn the call back to Curt.

現在，我將把電話轉回給 Curt。

Thank you, Jim. In times of uncertainty, we understand what is important to our customers. They seek stability. They prioritize consistent access to capital and a value-added partner who is patient and understands how to help them overcome obstacles.

謝謝你，吉姆。在不確定的時期，我們了解對客戶來說什麼是重要的。他們尋求穩定。他們優先考慮持續獲得資金和有耐心並懂得如何幫助他們克服障礙的增值合作夥伴。

We have a proven track record of doing just that for over 175 years. With the foundation of conservative capital, credit and liquidity management, we have demonstrated resiliency. We understand there is uncertainty in the marketplace, and we see this as an opportunity to stay close with our customers.

175 多年來，我們一直致力於實現這一目標，並且取得了豐碩的成果。在保守的資本、信貸和流動性管理的基礎上，我們展現了韌性。我們了解市場存在不確定性，我們將此視為與客戶保持密切聯繫的機會。

History would tell us that these are the times where Comerica's relationship model and strategy tends to shine. We have a geographically diverse model, tenured colleagues, and experienced leadership team, a conservative approach to underwriting, and a blue-chip customer base which altogether position us well to outperform through cycles.

歷史告訴我們，這正是 Comerica 的關係模式和策略最能發光發熱的時代。我們擁有地域多元化的模式、資深同事、經驗豐富的領導團隊、保守的承保方式以及藍籌客戶群，這些都使我們在整個週期中都能夠表現出色。

We had a great quarter, and we plan to continue investing in responsible growth for the long term while benefiting from the structural tailwinds embedded in our swap and securities portfolios.

我們度過了一個出色的季度，我們計劃繼續長期投資於負責任的成長，同時受益於掉期和證券投資組合中的結構性順風。

And so, with that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

因此，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Jon Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）Jon Arfstrom，RBC Capital Markets。

Yeah. Maybe for you, Peter, I guess, on the loan growth outlook, I think we all understand that you guys are really a proxy for commercial lending, but can you talk a little bit about what you're hearing right now from your lenders and borrowers, maybe some of the very near-term conversations.

是的。彼得，我想，也許對你來說，關於貸款增長前景，我想我們都明白，你們實際上是商業貸款的代表，但你能否談談你現在從貸款人和借款人那裡聽到的情況，也許是一些非常近期的對話。

And then maybe talk a little bit more about the longer term outlook. It sounds like you're still thinking the pipelines are there and the growth outlook could get better as the year progresses, but maybe very near-term stuff and then confidence in the longer term.

然後也許再多談一點長期前景。聽起來你仍然認為管道是存在的，而且隨著時間的推移，成長前景可能會變得更好，但也許這只是短期的事情，然後對長期前景充滿信心。

Yeah, Jon. So I think I would say near term, if I had to describe the whole portfolio, I would say that what you're hearing from customers is that they're not putting the brakes on but they're taking their foot off the accelerator and you're seeing that around the country and around our businesses, maybe different speeds, if you will to that approach.

是的，喬恩。因此，我認為就短期而言，如果我必須描述整個投資組合，那麼我會說，您從客戶那裡聽到的是，他們沒有踩剎車，而是鬆開了油門，而且您會在全國各地和我們的企業中看到這種情況，也許速度不同，如果您願意採用這種方法的話。

I think markets like Michigan, we've probably seen a more concern there than we have per se in Texas just quite candidly as when you talk about the middle market. We've seen a little bit more of a pullback in our equity fund services businesses versus our environmental services business that is still pretty robust.

我認為，像密西根州這樣的市場，我們可能比在德克薩斯州看到更多的擔憂，就像你談論中端市場時那樣坦率。與仍然相當強勁的環境服務業務相比，我們的股票基金服務業務略有回落。

So it really depends on the business. It depends on the type of service that they do, geographically where they are, but I think in the in the near term, and I think that's where we're going with our outlook for the second quarter is that there's a lot of folks that are pulling their foot off the accelerator, but they're not necessarily putting the brakes on.

所以這確實取決於業務。這取決於他們所提供的服務類型和地理位置，但我認為在短期內，我認為我們對第二季度的展望是，有很多人正在放鬆油門，但他們不一定會踩剎車。

Now all that said, we continue to hear really good long-term outlook and we do continue to see our pipeline creep up. It's a little bit interesting to see the pipeline go up, but not necessarily feel like we're going to see outstandings in the next quarter per se. But throughout the year as it goes on, we feel like it's going to, I guess, you might say, get better with loan demand.

現在，綜上所述，我們繼續聽到非常好的長期前景，並且我們確實繼續看到我們的管道逐漸增加。看到管道增加有點有趣，但並不一定意味著我們會在下個季度看到未完成的項目。但隨著時間的推移，我們感覺到貸款需求將會越來越好。

And again, we're not projecting a recession. We don't feel that way. We feel like the economy is going to grow this year and we feel like we're in the right markets and lines of business to benefit from that growth, even if it's not what we've seen over the last year or two.

再次強調，我們並沒有預測會出現經濟衰退。我們不這麼認為。我們感覺今年經濟將會成長，而且我們感覺我們處於正確的市場和業務領域，可以從這種成長中受益，即使這不是我們在過去一兩年所看到的情況。

Okay. Got it. We talked about this maybe in past quarters, can you talk a little bit more about commercial real estate and what you're seeing there? It seems like there's still some headwinds and I'm curious if there's any hope for stabilizing that category?

好的。知道了。我們可能在過去幾個季度討論過這個問題，您能否再多談談商業房地產以及您在那裡看到的情況？似乎仍然存在一些阻力，我很好奇是否有希望穩定這個類別？

Candidly, I think there is some hope for stabilizing it. Part of our outlook actually includes commercial real estate not coming down as much as we thought it would 90 days ago. We still foresee it being a headwind, but I don't think it's maybe blowing as hard as it was 60, 90 days ago. We've seen deal flow pick up in commercial real estate.

坦白說，我認為還是有希望實現穩定的。我們的展望實際上包括商業房地產價格不會像我們 90 天前想像的那麼大幅下跌。我們仍然預見到這將是一股逆風，但我認為它可能不會像 60 或 90 天前那麼強烈。我們看到商業房地產的交易量正在回升。

I was really glad last year, we were one of the first banks to kind of get back to doing deals second quarter of last year, and I think that's benefited us. So we're seeing some opportunities and to the extent that our borrowers need us. We're putting out commitments in commercial real estate.

我真的很高興去年我們是第一批在去年第二季度恢復交易的銀行之一，我認為這對我們有利。因此，我們看到了一些機會，而我們的借款人也需要我們。我們正在商業房地產領域做出承諾。

So I do think as we go into next year, we'll probably continue again to see it level off. We'll see what interest rates do to that business. But as of right now, it's a headwind, but maybe not as strong actually as it was 60 days ago.

因此我確實認為，進入明年，我們可能會繼續看到它趨於平穩。我們將看看利率對該業務有何影響。但截至目前，這仍然是一股逆風，但可能不像 60 天前那麼強勁。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

史考特·西佛斯、派珀·桑德勒。

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking the question. Let's see, Jim, could you maybe walk through the progression on both the fee and the expense guide? I know in the past, you've discussed the full year puts and takes on the fee side. But I guess just looking at it, I think you need to average much higher quarterly base to get to the updated guidance, maybe how do you do so?

大家早安。感謝您回答這個問題。讓我們看看，吉姆，您能否介紹一下費用和開支指南的進展？我知道過去您曾討論過費用方面的全年收益和損失。但我想僅從這一點來看，我認為您需要平均更高的季度基數才能獲得更新的指導，也許您該怎麼做呢？

And then by contrast, on the expense side, it looks like the guidance would suggest that the second half expense base will be lower than what you experienced in the first half. So maybe just some color on how the flow works to your thinking?

相較之下，在費用方面，看起來指導意見顯示下半年的費用基數將低於上半年的水平。那麼也許只是一些關於流程如何運作的色彩來影響你的思維？

Yes. Good morning, Scott. Looking at non-interest income, we did have some non-customer trends that appeared in the first quarter. We probably put $6 million to $7 million of pressure on the overall guidance that we provided back in January. And some of those will probably continue to some extent maybe not to the same pace that we had in the first quarter, but we do expect a little more pressure from non-interest income.

是的。早安，史考特。從非利息收入來看，第一季我們確實出現了一些非客戶趨勢。我們可能對 1 月份提供的整體指導施加了 600 萬至 700 萬美元的壓力。其中一些可能會在一定程度上持續下去，可能不會達到第一季的速度，但我們確實預計非利息收入將面臨更大的壓力。

Relative to expenses, I really think that we're going to have to monitor that as the year goes on and see how PPNR progresses. Certainly, there's a piece of that that's in the bag. Certainly, the sale of equipment and the gain we had there will be pocketed and won't be going away.

相對於費用，我確實認為我們必須隨著時間的推移對其進行監控，並觀察 PPNR 的進展。當然，袋子裡有一部分是這樣的。當然，設備銷售和我們在那裡獲得的收益將被收入囊中，不會消失。

But we had some other expenses related to maybe timing, maybe challenging of projects and expenses that we'll have to make decisions on as we move through the year, try to calibrate how revenue progresses through the year also. So we do have a little bit more control, obviously, on the expenses than we do in the noninterest income.

但是我們還有一些其他費用，可能與時間安排有關，也可能與專案和費用的挑戰有關，我們必須在一年中對這些費用做出決定，並嘗試校準一年中收入的進展。因此，顯然，我們對支出的控制比對非利息收入的控制要多一些。

We do see non-interest income for the customer categories getting largely back to plan or back to consensus and outlook that we had back in January.

我們確實看到客戶類別的非利息收入基本上恢復到計劃或恢復到我們一月份的共識和展望。

And so, we do think we're going to get some bounce back there, but we did have a weaker customer quarter in the first quarter. We did a weaker non-customer quarter, and some of those non-customer trends may continue to a very small degree. So we'll let the overall revenue pace inform both our expense control and as we continue to monitor the non-interest income flows.

因此，我們確實認為我們會反彈，但第一季我們的客戶確實比較疲軟。我們的非客戶季度表現較弱，部分非客戶趨勢可能會在很小程度上持續下去。因此，我們將讓整體收入速度來指導我們的費用控制，並繼續監控非利息收入流。

Jim, I might add. Scott, this is obviously an environment which is somewhat difficult to accurately forecast go-forward trends. But depending upon how things play out, depending upon if we do or do not see loan demand return and stabilization from the economy to think whether or not we have recession again, we are seeing that probability a little bit lower.

我要補充一下，吉姆。斯科特，這顯然是一個很難準確預測未來趨勢的環境。但這取決於事態如何發展，取決於我們是否看到貸款需求回升以及經濟是否穩定，以判斷我們是否會再次陷入衰退，我們認為這種可能性會略低一些。

We really calibrate how we think about expenses going forward. We are very committed to the things that we have in flight, the expansion of many of our businesses, product development technology, expansion into new markets that we've talked about previously. But the pace upon which we are doing some of those things could be calibrated if we really do see a more elongated disruption to the market or certainly if we saw a recession.

我們確實在調整我們對未來開支的看法。我們非常致力於我們正在進行的工作、許多業務的擴展、產品開發技術以及我們之前談到的新市場的擴張。但是，如果我們確實看到市場出現更長時間的混亂，或者看到經濟衰退，我們採取這些措施的步伐可能會進行調整。

[Ken Uston], Autonomous Research.

[肯‧烏斯頓]，自主研究。

Thanks. Good morning, guys. You're doing a great job reducing deposit costs and continue to show a really fast beta on the downside. I'm just wondering how much more room do you have to either remix deposits further, take down brokered CDs within that? And then I'll ask a follow-up. Thanks.

謝謝。大家早安。您在降低存款成本方面做得很好，並且在下行方面繼續表現出非常快速的測試版。我只是想知道，您還有多少空間可以進一步混合存款，並在此範圍內減少經紀 CD？然後我會問後續問題。謝謝。

All right, Ken. Good morning. It's Jim. Yeah, we have had great success with deposit pricing, a little better than we had actually expected in the first quarter. So far, as I look at our deposit betas, if I go back to when the Fed started cutting rates in the third quarter of last year, we are running about a 71% beta through the first quarter.

好的，肯。早安.是吉姆。是的，我們在存款定價方面取得了巨大的成功，比我們第一季的實際預期要好一些。到目前為止，當我查看我們的存款貝塔係數時，如果回到聯準會去年第三季開始降息的時候，我們在第一季的貝塔係數約為 71%。

So that's obviously higher than the 60% or so that we long term think we'll get back to. We are well above that 71%, obviously, in the first quarter. So we are having great success. As I mentioned, I think in the January earnings call and certainly at the conference that we attended in March, we do expect to see that slow up a little bit. In fact, we may, given how proactively we moved.

因此，這顯然高於我們長期預期將恢復的 60% 左右的水平。顯然，第一季我們的成長率遠高於 71%。因此我們取得了巨大的成功。正如我所提到的，我認為在一月份的收益電話會議上以及在我們三月參加的會議上，我們確實預計這一速度會有所放緩。事實上，考慮到我們採取的積極行動，我們可能會這樣做。

We may actually in some small pockets have to give a little bit back to customers. But having said that, as rates continue to move down, we do expect to still achieve on an incremental go-forward basis of probably a 40% to 50% beta going forward. So we certainly have room to continue to react as rates continue to go down. But we will have probably some pockets of pressure upward.

實際上，我們可能必須從一些小方面回饋客戶。但話雖如此，隨著利率繼續下降，我們確實預計未來仍將以增量方式實現 40% 至 50% 的貝塔值。因此，隨著利率持續下降，我們肯定還有繼續做出反應的空間。但我們可能仍會面臨一些向上的壓力。

Now you mentioned brokered deposits, yes, we do expect to run off really that remaining -- about $1 billion of brokered deposits by the end of the year. We are paying in the low to mid 5% range on those. So that will certainly be a big benefit too as those roll off. But we expect to get even a nice beta on the non-brokered deposits, the core deposits too as rates continue to move down.

現在您提到了經紀存款，是的，我們確實希望到今年年底能夠用完剩餘的約 10 億美元的經紀存款。我們支付的費用在 5% 到 5% 的低位範圍內。因此，隨著這些措施的實施，這肯定也將帶來巨大的好處。但我們預計，隨著利率持續下降，非經紀存款和核心存款也將獲得不錯的貝塔值。

So overall, a really good story, probably won't continue at the same pace that we've seen but certainly can continue to adjust as the FOMC continues to lower rates. So that's one that we also have to monitor overall market trends.

因此，總體而言，這是一個非常好的故事，可能不會以我們所見的速度繼續下去，但隨著聯邦公開市場委員會繼續降低利率，肯定會繼續調整。因此，我們也必須監控整體市場趨勢。

And I have mentioned in the past too, we do plan on being fairly proactive in gathering more interest-bearing deposits. And in some cases, we may pay up for those. We're happy to do that if we can garner them.

我過去也提到過，我們確實計劃積極主動地吸收更多有利息的存款。在某些情況下，我們可能會為此付出代價。如果我們能夠獲得它們，我們會很高興這樣做。

We still make money on those. They're still a preferred funding source versus purchase funds. And so overall, I just feel really good about the deposit story, both the volume as well as the success we've had with pay rates thus far.

我們仍然靠這些賺錢。與購買資金相比，它們仍然是首選的資金來源。因此，總的來說，我對存款情況感到非常滿意，包括存款量以及迄今為止我們在支付率方面取得的成功。

Got it. Great. And the second question just relates to deposits as well. You mentioned very clearly that the Direct Express, there's no changes in the '25 outlook. I believe you had said it really wouldn't be in play until the out years.

知道了。偉大的。第二個問題也跟存款有關。您非常清楚地提到，Direct Express 的 25 年展望沒有任何變化。我相信您說過，它要到未來幾年才會真正發揮作用。

Can you just give us an update on how you're thinking about that? And if deposit growth continues to be strong, do you think about starting to get ahead of some of that mix shifting at some point? Thanks, guys.

您能否向我們介紹一下您對此的看法？如果存款成長持續強勁，您是否考慮在某個時候開始領先於部分存款結構的變化？謝謝大家。

Yeah. Ken, it's Peter. Yeah. There's no real change to our outlook on what we see with Direct Express. We think that balances really aren't going to be impacted at all in '25. And we haven't provided, obviously, outlook for next year, but we continue to believe that the transition here is quite long.

是的。肯，我是彼得。是的。我們對 Direct Express 的看法並沒有真正的改變。我們認為，25 年餘額實際上不會受到任何影響。顯然，我們還沒有提供明年的展望，但我們仍然相信，這裡的過渡期相當漫長。

And so, what I would tell you is that as far as running the rest of the company, we're very focused on deposits in all the other businesses that we have, whether that be in small business and what we do in some of our corporate businesses that are deposit gathering, and really even what we do on the consumer side.

因此，我想告訴你們的是，就經營公司的其他業務而言，我們非常關注我們所有其他業務中的存款，無論是小型企業，還是我們在一些企業業務中所做的存款收集工作，甚至是我們在消費者方面所做的工作。

I think there's a tremendous opportunity there for us to increase our deposit base through those channels. So we are looking at that pretty regularly. I'd say that's a constant conversation that we have. But at the moment, there's no real update about what the transition plan for Direct Express. I think our messaging is consistent at the current time.

我認為，透過這些管道，我們有巨大的機會增加存款基礎。所以我們常常關注這個問題。我想說這是我們一直在討論的話題。但目前，Direct Express 的過渡計畫還沒有真正的更新。我認為我們目前傳達的訊息是一致的。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning. Can you expand on how you're thinking about the trajectory of NII from here and the jumping off point for 2026? As you noted, the BSBY benefits fared, which might be masking some nice growth in core NII. So can you talk about the factors driving that increase as we go through the year?

嘿，早安。您能否詳細說明您對 NII 從現在開始的發展軌跡以及 2026 年的起點的看法？正如您所指出的，BSBY 福利表現良好，這可能掩蓋了核心 NII 的一些良好成長。那麼，您能談談推動這一成長的因素嗎？

Sure. Good morning, Manan. Yeah. Excluding the BSBY impact, which we do have that schedule in the appendix as we always do, we are expecting steady growth in net interest income, both dollars and it will tick up each quarter and NIM percentage also most likely.

當然。早安，馬南。是的。排除 BSBY 的影響（我們一如既往地在附錄中提供了該時間表），我們預計淨利息收入將穩步增長，以美元計算，並且每個季度都會上升，NIM 百分比也極有可能上升。

A number of drivers there. We are expecting deposits to continue to grow as we move through the rest of 2025. So deposits will certainly be a key contributor. Non-interest bearing could be just a very small drag in the second quarter because we were higher than we expected in the first quarter.

那裡有很多司機。我們預計，2025 年剩餘時間內存款將持續成長。因此，存款肯定是關鍵因素。由於第一季的業績高於預期，因此非利息收入在第二季可能只是一個很小的拖累。

But then in the second half of the year, we do see the potential for some small increases in non-interest bearing. But most of those deposit increases will be on the interest-bearing side, all contributing to increasing net interest income. Of course, the loan growth that we expect to happen in the second half of the year will be a key contributor also.

但到了下半年，我們確實看到無息收入有小幅成長的潛力。但大部分存款的增加將出現在生息方面，所有這些都有助於增加淨利息收入。當然，我們預計下半年的貸款成長也將是關鍵因素。

And then if you look at our maturity schedule for swaps and securities, we do expect to get a few million dollars, ranges anywhere from $2 million to $6 million if you do the math each quarter, benefit on maturing swaps and securities. So that will be a contributor too. And that's obviously more of a known factor. I don't expect that to bounce around very much.

然後，如果你看一下我們的掉期和證券到期時間表，我們確實預計會獲得幾百萬美元，如果你每季計算一下，你會發現到期掉期和證券的收益在 200 萬美元到 600 萬美元之間。所以這也將是個貢獻者。這顯然是一個更為人熟知的因素。我並不認為其會有太大的波動。

So a lot of tailwinds contributing to consistent small to moderate increases each quarter. And overall, we just feel good about the overall trajectory of net interest income.

因此，許多順風因素促使每季持續小幅至中度成長。整體而言，我們對淨利息收入的整體走勢感到滿意。

That's helpful. Appreciate it. Maybe just to switch over to credit. Are there any early signs of stress you're seeing among your client base at all, whether it's in C&I or CRE, small business, anywhere that you're particularly focused on?

這很有幫助。非常感謝。也許只是為了轉換信用。您是否發現您的客戶群中存在任何壓力的早期跡象，無論是在 C&I 還是 CRE、小型企業，還是任何您特別關注的領域？

Manan, this is Melinda. I would say, overall, the credit environment remains strong and stable. You can see that by the metrics that are shown on our slide. I mean criticized balances were up ever so slightly. That was really driven by the commercial real estate line of business.

馬南，這是梅琳達。我想說，整體而言，信貸環境依然強勁且穩定。您可以透過投影片上顯示的指標看到這一點。我的意思是，受到批評的餘額略有上升。這實際上是由商業房地產業務推動的。

So as Peter mentioned, the payoff pace, we think it's going to be a little bit slower than what we had originally anticipated coming into the year, and that's really driven by the fact that rates have remained somewhat elevated. Obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty, and some of the leasing times on some of the construction projects are elongated.

因此，正如彼得所提到的那樣，我們認為支付速度將比我們最初預期的今年的速度要慢一些，而這實際上是由於利率仍然處於較高水平。顯然，存在著許多不確定性，一些建築項目的租賃時間被延長。

And so, that's where we're seeing a little bit of migration into the non-pass. The absolute levels of non-pass in commercial real estate remain very manageable, and we're still seeing resolution every single quarter on non-pass credit. So we have some migrating in, some migrating out.

所以，我們看到了少量向非通行證的遷移。商業房地產中未通過貸款的絕對水準仍然非常可控，而且我們每季仍能看到未透過貸款的問題得到解決。因此，有一部分人遷入，有一部分人遷出。

As it relates to C&I, I would call this quarter very stable. If you bifurcated charge-offs this quarter, they were very stable from a C&I perspective. We did see two charge-offs in commercial real estate, which is really what drove the increase between the fourth quarter and the first quarter in terms of the basis points.

就 C&I 而言，我認為本季非常穩定。如果您將本季的沖銷分開，從 C&I 角度來看，它們是非常穩定的。我們確實看到商業房地產出現了兩次沖銷，這就是第四季和第一季之間基點成長的真正原因。

So not really seeing anything yet, but the reality is there's an enormous amount of uncertainty right now and risk in the economy, supply chain disruption is bound to happen. We don't know exactly where that's going to land and what that's going to look like, but we have very good visibility into our customers.

所以實際上還沒有看到任何東西，但現實是現在存在大量的不確定性和經濟風險，供應鏈中斷必然會發生。我們不知道它究竟會走向何方、會是什麼樣子，但我們對我們的客戶有很好的了解。

We have excellent portfolio management, proven track record of managing through economic cycles. And so, I'm really confident that the portfolio as a whole is going to perform. We're just going to have to wait and see some of this uncertainty to abate and folks to have a little bit more clarity on how they're going to manage supply chains going forward.

我們擁有出色的投資組合管理以及在經濟週期中管理的良好記錄。因此，我非常有信心整個投資組合將會表現良好。我們只需要等待，看看這種不確定性是否會消退，以及人們對未來如何管理供應鏈有更清晰的認識。

Bernard Von Gizycki, Deutsche Bank.

伯納德·馮·吉茲基，德意志銀行。

Hey guys, good morning. Just on the first question, just on share repurchases. I know you did the $50 million during the quarter, and you noted it's going to depend on market conditions and economic developments. Any thoughts on how you're going to think about 2Q or any expectations you could share?

大家好，早安。就第一個問題而言，僅涉及股票回購。我知道您在本季度投入了 5000 萬美元，並且您指出這將取決於市場狀況和經濟發展。您對第二季有何看法或期望？可以分享一下嗎？

Good morning, Bernard. As I mentioned, we do see the potential and we certainly have the capacity to do additional share repurchases. We've done $100 million in the fourth quarter. We dialed that down to $50 million in the first quarter. Then I mentioned, I see the potential to do up to maybe the same $100 million that we did in the fourth quarter.

早安，伯納德。正如我所提到的，我們確實看到了潛力，而且我們當然有能力進行額外的股票回購。我們在第四季的銷售額已達 1 億美元。我們在第一季將這一數字降至 5000 萬美元。然後我提到，我認為我們有可能達到第四季的 1 億美元。

Now, we are keeping our eye on a number of factors there. We've seen the tenure really ping-pong around the last few weeks and the last few months. So where long-term rates go and what the curve does to AOCI is something we continue to keep our eye on.

現在，我們正在關注那裡的許多因素。我們看到，在過去的幾週和幾個月裡，任期確實一直在波動。因此，我們將繼續關注長期利率的走向以及曲線對 AOCI 的影響。

Credit, while very stable, performing very well, as Melinda was saying, in this environment. It's prudent to keep an eye on that also. And then loan demand, of course, is a factor also. We want to make sure that we're there should this uncertainty abate. We see the potential for loan demand to may be surprised to the higher side, as again, the uncertainty abates. So keeping our eye on a number of factors.

正如梅琳達所說，信貸雖然非常穩定，但在這種環境下表現得非常好。謹慎地關注這一點也是明智之舉。當然，貸款需求也是一個因素。我們希望確保當這種不確定性減弱時我們能夠提供幫助。我們認為貸款需求可能會出現意外的上升趨勢，因為不確定性再次減弱。因此我們要密切注意一些因素。

But having said that, we've recognized that 12.05% is a very healthy CET1 ratio. So I think you can expect us to likely be active on the share repurchase side. But we are going to keep our eye on this week to week as we move through the second quarter, which is why we're not committing to a very specific amount of certainty at this point in time.

但話雖如此，我們已經認識到 12.05% 是一個非常健康的 CET1 比率。因此我認為你可以期待我們很可能會在股票回購方面積極行動。但隨著第二季的到來，我們將每週密切關注這一情況，這就是為什麼我們目前還不能做出非常具體的確定性承諾。

Okay. And then just one modeling question. Jim, I know you mentioned there was a slight benefit from the 4Q securities are positioning and net interest income. I might have missed it, but could you just size that benefit in the quarter? And then just what the remaining benefit could be for the rest of the year?

好的。然後只有一個建模問題。吉姆，我知道您提到第四季度證券定位和淨利息收入略有好處。我可能錯過了，但你能在本季衡量一下這項收益嗎？那麼今年剩餘時間的剩餘福利到底有多少呢？

Yeah. If you look at our net interest income slide, you can see that securities income overall was up $9 million quarter-to-quarter. I would say just a little over half of that was due to the securities repositioning. The rest of it due to other factors such as just the normal maturities on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

是的。如果您看一下我們的淨利息收入幻燈片，您會發現證券收入總體環比增長了 900 萬美元。我想說，其中略多於一半是因為證券重新定位造成的。其餘部分則歸因於其他因素，例如按季度計算的正常到期日。

And so, we have recognized, I think, most of that benefit going forward, you see it in the run rate right now. And we will certainly have some additional securities just naturally mature as we move through the rest of the year here.

因此，我認為我們已經認識到，未來的大部分好處都可以從現在的運行率中看到。隨著今年剩餘時間的到來，我們肯定會有一些額外的證券自然到期。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰·潘卡里（John Pancari），Evercore ISI。

Good morning. On the expense front, you had a pretty solid operating expense quarter. Given this uncertain revenue backdrop, can you maybe discuss the degree of expense flexibility you have if revenue pressure persists longer than you had expected?

早安.在費用方面，本季的營運費用相當穩健。鑑於這種不確定的收入背景，您能否討論一下，如果收入壓力持續時間比您預期的要長，您的費用彈性程度如何？

And then also, can you maybe give your thoughts on your ability to achieve positive operating leverage in 2025 and the degree of which you think could be reasonable? Thanks.

另外，您能否談談您在 2025 年實現正向經營槓桿的能力以及您認為合理的程度？謝謝。

Yeah. Good morning, John. As we indicated, I see the range of expense growth for us for 2025 to be in that 2% to 3% range that we mentioned. We are going to keep our eye on revenue trends and try to calibrate accordingly. But we do have a certain degree of flexibility there.

是的。早安，約翰。正如我們所指出的，我認為 2025 年我們的支出成長範圍將在我們提到的 2% 到 3% 之間。我們將密切關注收入趨勢並嘗試進行相應調整。但我們確實具有一定程度的彈性。

And I think that in this environment with all the uncertainty where it's very hard to predict where the year is going to go, I think we do have to be prepared to continue to take expense reduction steps if the revenue doesn't come. I will say, at the same time, we are pretty committed to a lot of the investments we're making also.

我認為，在這種充滿不確定性的環境下，很難預測今年的走向，如果收入沒有成長，我們必須做好準備繼續採取削減開支的措施。我想說的是，同時，我們也非常致力於我們正在進行的許多投資。

So we're certainly not going to turn down or turn off key investments that we're in the middle of making right now on the product side, the risk management side, getting ready for category four. But as Curt and I said earlier, we just plan on trying to calibrate as best we can to the overall PPNR stream that we see.

因此，我們當然不會拒絕或停止目前正在進行的產品方面、風險管理方面的關鍵投資，為第四類做好準備。但正如 Curt 和我之前所說，我們只是計劃盡力校準我們所看到的整體 PPNR 流。

Thanks, Jim. And then separately, on the M&A front, I know you pride yourselves on your independence. And that said, there's clearly a need for scale that's developing and intensifying in the regional bank space and the regulatory backdrop might actually be improving to M&A.

謝謝，吉姆。另外，在併購方面，我知道你們為自己的獨立性感到自豪。話雖如此，區域銀行領域顯然需要擴大規模並不斷加強，監管環境實際上可能正在改善以利於併購。

Is there anything that you look at that would be to Comerica considering either being a buyer and pursuing a transaction on the whole bank side more actively than you may have in the past or conversely consider partnering with a larger acquirer? Thanks.

您是否考慮過讓 Comerica 要么作為買家，比過去更積極地進行銀行層面的交易，要么考慮與更大的收購者合作？謝謝。

John, I would say that we continue to be focused on our independence, and we know we have to earn that right every day and certainly a long history as an institution. We've been a very patient acquirer. And certainly, right now, I think the M&A environment is a little bit murky from a go-forward standpoint, but we would certainly consider opportunities as they came along.

約翰，我想說，我們將繼續專注於我們的獨立性，我們知道我們必須每天贏得這項權利，當然作為一個機構，我們必須擁有悠久的歷史。我們一直是個非常有耐心的收購者。當然，目前，我認為從未來的角度來看，併購環境有點不明朗，但我們肯定會考慮出現的機會。

It made sense for us that we're aligned with our strategic direction or focus as an organization will be complementary to our businesses, our geography, et cetera. That said, the number of institutions that fit that category is fairly small.

對我們來說，與我們的策略方向或重點保持一致是有意義的，因為組織將與我們的業務、地理位置等相補充。話雖如此，符合這一類別的機構數量相當少。

And so, I think what we can focus on what we see control is what we've historically done, which is organic growth. We've done a good job of that, including expansion into some new markets like the Southeast, but also expansion into our existing markets. As you know, we operate in some of the largest MSAs in the US and just great opportunities for us in markets like Dallas and LA and Houston and other markets that we operate in.

因此，我認為我們可以關注的是我們所控制的是我們過去所做的事情，即有機成長。我們在這方面做得很好，包括擴展到東南等一些新市場，也擴展到我們現有的市場。如您所知，我們在美國一些最大的大都市統計區 (MSA) 開展業務，達拉斯、洛杉磯、休士頓等市場以及我們開展業務的其他市場為我們提供了絕佳的機會。

And then maybe from the broader perspective, there's always noise about M&A in the industry. I've been doing this for over 40 years, and it ebbs and flows. I don't think personally that you're going to see a lot of M&A in the next 12 to 18 months in the industry.

然後也許從更廣泛的角度來看，行業中總是存在著有關併購的喧囂。我做這件事已經 40 多年了，有起有落。我個人認為，未來 12 到 18 個月內，業界不會出現大量併購事件。

And I go back to what I said earlier, we are focused really on our independence and believe we've got the right model to be successful going forward with the geographic balance we have, with the product line balance we have, with our commercial orientation, with the strategic investments that we've made and then all the financial underpinning, our strong capital position, strong liquidity, and the bank that historically has managed well through credit cycles, especially if we end up facing a credit cycle in the next 12, 18, 24 months.

回到我之前所說的，我們真正專注於我們的獨立性，並相信我們擁有正確的模式，可以透過我們擁有的地理平衡、我們擁有的產品線平衡、我們的商業導向、我們所做的戰略投資以及所有的財務基礎、我們強大的資本狀況、強大的流動性以及歷史上在信貸週期中管理良好的銀行來取得成功，特別是如果我們最終在未來 12個月、18 個月內面臨的話。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥格拉蒂，KBW。

Great. Good morning. On the balance sheet, I think in your prepared remarks, you talked about waiting for the back half of the year to really step up the reinvestment of the securities portfolio. I guess, maybe a little bit inside of that view, what's driving that view?

偉大的。早安.關於資產負債表，我想在您準備好的發言中，您談到要等到下半年才能真正加大證券投資組合的再投資。我想，也許從這個觀點來看，是什麼推動了這種觀點？

And then what could make you change your view of either stepping up the pace or restructuring the securities book like you did a little bit in the fourth quarter?

那麼，什麼會讓您改變對加快步伐或重組證券帳簿的看法，就像您在第四季度所做的那樣？

Yeah. Good morning, Chris. In terms of how we size our balance sheet and securities positioning, we do keep an eye on our liquidity metrics and just the overall composition of the balance sheet. We do think we're a little high right now relative to the overall size of the securities portfolio given where the balance sheet is. So we're obviously in the very high-teens right now.

是的。早上好，克里斯。在決定資產負債表規模和證券配置方面，我們確實關注流動性指標以及資產負債表的整體組成。考慮到資產負債表的情況，我們確實認為，相對於證券投資組合的整體規模而言，我們現在的水平有點高。因此，我們現在顯然處於十幾歲的水平。

Historically, we've been kind of in that mid to upper-teen range, and I would actually expect this going forward to be, again, more in the upper-teens, not just quite as high as we are today. So we do want to see it come down just a little bit more before we start reinvesting in the MBS, and it's probably going to be in the fourth quarter of this year, but it's always dependent upon just the overall size of the balance sheet, liquidity needs, characteristics of our deposits, a we have a pretty robust way of looking at that.

從歷史上看，我們的成長率一直處於中高十幾歲的水平，我實際上預計，未來這一增長率將再次達到高十幾歲的水平，而不是像今天這樣高。因此，我們確實希望在開始對 MBS 進行再投資之前看到它再下降一點，這很可能在今年第四季度發生，但它始終取決於資產負債表的總體規模、流動性需求、存款特徵，我們有一個非常穩健的方法來看待這些問題。

In terms of securities repositioning, that is not something that we are a big fan of in terms of doing it in a big way. We did do a little hygiene in the fourth quarter. But we do think a better use of capital is to put it towards share repurchase, both in the second quarter and then hopefully throughout the remainder of the year also.

就證券重新定位而言，我們並不熱衷於大規模地進行這項工作。我們確實在第四節做了一些衛生工作。但我們確實認為，更好的資本利用方式是將其用於股票回購，不僅在第二季度，而且希望在今年剩餘時間內也能如此。

We think that actually returns a higher return to shareholders more so than securities repositioning where again, it's just time geography. You still end up with the same TBV at the end of the day, whereas we think we can increase and improve tangible book value over time with share repurchase.

我們認為，這實際上會為股東帶來比證券重新定位更高的回報，而這只是時間地理問題。最終，您的 TBV 仍保持不變，而我們認為，隨著時間的推移，透過股票回購，我們可以增加並提高有形帳面價值。

So that's where our focus is going to be. It's going to be more share repurchase and loan growth and supporting that loan growth as opposed to doing any kind of securities repositioning. Having said that, we may choose to do a little bit here and there. Again, it's just normal hygiene and smoothing out maturity schedules and so on, but it's not anything that we expect to do in a real big way.

這就是我們的重點。這將是更多的股票回購和貸款成長並支持貸款成長，而不是進行任何形式的證券重新定位。話雖如此，我們可能會選擇在這裡或那裡做一點事情。再說一次，這只是正常的衛生和理順成熟時間表等，但這並不是我們期望真正大規模做的事情。

Okay. Great. Thank you. And then my follow-up on your slides where you highlight the higher risk portfolios and those portfolios haven't changed. Are there additional portfolios and maybe this was touched upon earlier, that you're looking at more closely given the tariff situation, given your C&I book, maybe within C&I, where could we be surprised if we are going to be surprised?

好的。偉大的。謝謝。然後，我對您的投影片進行了跟進，您強調了高風險投資組合，而這些投資組合並沒有改變。是否還有其他投資組合，也許之前已經提到過，考慮到關稅情況，考慮到您的 C&I 賬簿，您正在更仔細地研究這些投資組合，也許在 C&I 內部，如果我們要感到驚訝的話，我們會在哪裡感到驚訝？

Yeah. Chris, obviously, our leverage portfolio in automotive which are considered a higher risk, we have great visibility and really good monitoring and tenured teams monitoring those portfolios. The other ones that are on high alert at this point would be anything related to manufacturing, whose inputs are steel and aluminum, wholesale and retail trade and consumer discretionary. So we're watching all of those.

是的。克里斯，顯然，我們在汽車領域的槓桿投資組合被認為風險較高，我們擁有很高的可視性和非常好的監控能力，並且有長期團隊監控這些投資組合。此時其他需要高度警覺的是與製造業相關的任何領域，其投入包括鋼鐵和鋁、批發和零售貿易以及非必需消費品。所以我們正在關注這些。

Anthony Elian, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安東尼·埃利安。

Hi, everyone. On your outlook slide and for fee income specifically, does it assume an uptick in capital markets income ex-CVA? And more broadly, what are you seeing in that business now?

大家好。在您的展望幻燈片中，特別是對於費用收入，是否假設資本市場收入（不包括 CVA）會上升？更廣泛地說，您現在對該業務有何看法？

Yeah. Tony, it's Peter. So in our capital markets business, it does assume a little bit of an uptick throughout the year. And if you think about what our business is made up of, it's our syndications business on what we do in some of our risk products for our customers. So interest rate, FX and energy.

是的。東尼，我是彼得。因此，在我們的資本市場業務中，全年確實會出現小幅上漲。如果你想想我們的業務是由什麼組成的，那就是我們的銀團業務，我們為客戶開展一些風險產品業務。因此是利率、外匯和能源。

And then what we also do, we started an M&A business that is pretty much in its second year of starting to generate positive fee income. So we're very excited about what's happening there. And then we do some work in our capital markets where we participate in bonds and securities offerings, which actually had a really good first quarter.

然後我們還開展了一項併購業務，該業務已進入第二年，並開始產生正費用收入。所以我們對那裡發生的事情感到非常興奮。然後我們在資本市場進行一些工作，參與債券和證券發行，第一季的表現實際上非常好。

So when we add it all together, we feel like 2025 is going to be an uptick year for our capital markets business. And so, I think between activity levels, what we see out in the market opportunity-wise, that's something that we feel like is going to be a growth business through the year.

因此，當我們把所有這些因素綜合起來時，我們覺得 2025 年將是我們資本市場業務上升的一年。因此，我認為，從活動水平來看，從市場機會的角度來看，我們認為這將是全年的成長業務。

Thank you. And then my follow-up, in the national dealer portfolio, you saw a decline in 1Q of about a couple of hundred million dollars. What are you hearing from that segment on potential supply chain impacts and the impacts from tariffs? Thank you.

謝謝。然後我的後續行動是，在全國經銷商組合中，您看到第一季下降了約幾億美元。您從該部分了解到有關潛在供應鏈影響和關稅影響的哪些資訊？謝謝。

Yeah. Tony, it's Peter again. I think what we're hearing is a little bit of to be determined. I think that what our customers would say is they've had a great practice run at supply chain with COVID. And that was a period where the dealers actually performed really, really well.

是的。東尼，又是彼得。我認為我們所聽到的還有待確定。我認為我們的客戶會說他們在應對 COVID 的供應鏈方面進行了很好的實踐。那段時期經銷商的表現確實非常非常好。

So it will be interesting to see how many cars get sold this year. I mean, I think the outlook is still over 15 million cars to be sold. So it would be interesting to see what that ultimately looks like, how much do prices get pushed on to consumers, what sort of car manufacturing looks like through the year.

因此看看今年能賣出多少輛汽車將會很有趣。我的意思是，我認為汽車銷售前景仍將超過 1500 萬輛。因此，看看最終情況會如何，價格會向消費者轉嫁多少，全年的汽車製造業會是什麼樣子，這些都很有趣。

But as far as our dealer customers go, I think that they are very prepared to weather this, particularly, again, with what they've been through the last few years. So right now, there's still a little bit of wait and see. And as I was describing earlier, I think a lot of our dealer customers are probably – they’ve definitely taken their foot off of the accelerator and are just cruising to find out how things are going to play out here.

但就我們的經銷商客戶而言，我認為他們已經做好了應對這項挑戰的準備，特別是考慮到他們過去幾年所經歷的一切。因此現在我們還需要等待一段時間才能看到結果。正如我之前所描述的，我認為我們的許多經銷商客戶可能已經放鬆了警惕，只是在觀望，看看事情會如何發展。

Brian Foran, Truist.

布萊恩·福蘭，Truist。

Good morning. I wanted to ask one follow-up on your M&A and then one on loans. So on the M&A, I mean, I think we can all appreciate things are uncertain and murky, I think, was the word you used. But just on this comment that you don't think there will be a lot of deal activity in the industry I think you said for 12 to 18 months.

早安.我想問一下有關你們的併購案的一個後續問題，然後問一下有關貸款的一個問題。因此，關於併購，我的意思是，我想我們都能理解事情是不確定和模糊的，我想，這是你使用的詞。但是就您認為行業內不會出現大量交易活動這一評論而言，我認為您說的是 12 到 18 個月內。

Is the murkiness, regulatory rules, the economy, interest rates and the marks, all of the above, maybe just kind of what's underneath the hood that you think is going to hold up deals for the next year or so?

您是否認為，這些不透明因素、監管規則、經濟、利率和標記，所有這些因素，都會導致未來一年左右的交易受阻？

Well, first of all, this is just my opinion. So no one knows for sure, but I think it's all of the above that you just mentioned.

嗯，首先，這只是我的觀點。所以沒有人確切知道，但我認為就是你剛才提到的以上所有原因。

Okay. And then on loan growth, what do you think the leading indicators are most likely to be over the next three to four months on whether this is a pause or kind of builds on itself are there? Is it commitments, utilization, certain sub portfolios you think will move first?

好的。那麼，關於貸款成長，您認為未來三到四個月最有可能出現的領先指標是什麼？這是否意味著貸款成長將暫停，還是會自行成長？您認為首先會改變的是承諾、使用率還是某些子投資組合？

Just any thoughts like if we're sitting here three months from now, what will be two or three metrics that will either be showing activity coming back for the pause building on itself?

只是想問一下，如果我們三個月後坐在這裡，會有哪兩個或三個指標顯示活動在暫停後恢復？

Brian, I mean I think it probably is a little bit of even the factors that we've talked about throughout the call. I mean, I do think what interest rates do and what the outlook there is for the rest of '25 will be a factor. I think if we continue to stay out of a recession, which we project that we will, I think our outlook, we feel really, really good about it.

布萊恩，我的意思是，我認為這可能與我們在整個通話過程中討論過的因素有關。我的意思是，我確實認為利率的走勢以及 25 年剩餘時間的前景將是一個因素。我認為，如果我們繼續避免陷入經濟衰退（我們預計我們會陷入經濟衰退），我們對此的前景感到非常非常樂觀。

So to the extent that macro economy continues to move in the direction it's moving, I think that's going to be a real positive for us across our geographies. And I think too when I look at all of our businesses, I think probably, as Melinda discussed a little bit earlier, we're watching Michigan middle market, the auto situation there more than any.

因此，只要宏觀經濟繼續朝著既定方向發展，我認為這對我們所有地區來說都將是一個真正的利好。而且我認為，當我審視我們所有的業務時，我想可能正如梅琳達之前討論的那樣，我們最關注的是密西根州的中型市場，那裡的汽車狀況。

And that's probably where we've seen at least in our middle market businesses, the slowdown has occurred mostly in Michigan versus what we've seen in the Southeast, Texas and California. So I think if we are sitting here next quarter and a number of the factors that we've got going on in the economy continue to level out, then I think that the outlook we have, we feel really good about. And as Jim said, there may be some upside to that if things continue.

這可能是我們至少在中端市場業務中看到的情況，經濟放緩主要發生在密西根州，而不是東南部、德克薩斯州和加利福尼亞州。因此我認為，如果下個季度經濟中的許多因素繼續趨於平穩，那麼我認為我們對前景感到非常樂觀。正如吉姆所說，如果情況繼續下去，可能會有一些好處。

If things were to go the other direction and you started to see the economy pullback stronger, you started to see unemployment tick up, you started to see interest rates going up instead of down. I think all of those are going to be a real headwind to loan demand in the second half of the year and really into '26. So those are probably the big variables that we're watching.

如果情況朝著另一個方向發展，你開始看到經濟強勁回落，你開始看到失業率上升，你開始看到利率上升而不是下降。我認為所有這些都將對今年下半年以及26年的貸款需求造成真正的阻力。所以這些可能是我們正在關注的重大變數。

Ben Gerlinger, Citi.

花旗銀行的本‧格林格 (Ben Gerlinger)。

Good morning. When you think about just the kind of commentary, any kind of given geographic representation of like Michigan versus Texas. But when you think about the growth itself, some of your competition has grown a little bit. I'm sure some of that is just market share gain.

早安.當您考慮評論類型時，任何給定的地理代表，例如密西根州與德克薩斯州。但當你考慮成長本身時，你會發現你的一些競爭對手已經壯大。我確信其中一部分只是市場佔有率的成長。

When you look at pricing of (inaudible) are you seeing anything in the market that leading indicator on kind of their growth? I don't say name names or anything, but just kind of turning to competitive market itself, are people trying to lead with the rate in order to --

當您查看（聽不清楚）的定價時，您是否看到市場上有任何可以領先其成長的指標？我不是要點名道姓，只是轉向競爭市場本身，人們是否試圖透過利率來領先，以便--

Ben, it's a little hard to hear you.

本，我聽不清楚你說什麼。

I can hear you. Ben, we're having a little trouble hearing you, but I think that you're asking about the competitive environment and whether or not rates or credit are impacting the competition. I think that's your question, at least that's what I'm going to answer based on what we thought we heard you say.

我聽到你的聲音。本，我們聽不清楚您的意思，但我認為您問的是競爭環境以及利率或信貸是否會影響競爭。我想這就是你的問題，至少根據我們認為聽到的你所說的內容，我將這樣回答。

And I guess I would say that it is extremely competitive right now. And I think that across all of our geographies in our businesses, we compete with lots of different institutions. I continue to feel like we want to stay really, really focused on being responsible on credit.

我想說的是，現在的競爭非常激烈。我認為，在我們業務的所有地區，我們都在與許多不同的機構競爭。我始終覺得，我們真的應該要非常重視對信用的責任。

I will tell you, I think pricing in the industry has probably gotten a little more aggressive than it was 90 days ago. And again, I think each customer and each relationship warrants different decisions that you have to make at any one time. And I feel very confident in our ability to win on pricing. And I think that the value we provide to our customers ends up helping us win the business.

我會告訴你，我認為行業定價可能比 90 天前更加激進。再說一次，我認為每個客戶和每段關係都需要你在任何時候做出不同的決定。我對我們的定價勝利能力非常有信心。我認為我們為客戶提供的價值最終會幫助我們贏得業務。

So I also do think that the banks in general continue to be pretty responsible quite candidly across the board in a lot of these businesses when it comes to credit. So pricing is probably a bigger factor today than per se credit statistics that you see being put out. So that's what we think you asked, Ben.

因此，我確實認為，在信貸方面，銀行總體上在許多業務上仍然相當負責。因此，與你所看到的信用統計數據相比，定價如今可能是一個更重要的因素。所以我們認為這就是你問的，本。

Terry McEvoy, Stephens.

特里·麥克沃伊，史蒂芬斯。

Hi. Good morning. Just one question left on my list. If I look at average loan growth in the other markets, it increased from [$8.5 billion to $8.9 billion]. Could you maybe update us on the progress in the Southeast and the Mountain West region where you've been making investments? And maybe I'm assuming that growth was in those two regions.

你好。早安.我的清單上只剩下一個問題了。如果我看一下其他市場的平均貸款成長，它從[85億美元至89億美元]。您能否向我們介紹一下您在東南部和山區西部地區投資的進展？也許我假設成長發生在這兩個地區。

Yeah. When we say other markets, it could actually also include some of our businesses that we have that -- we have offices in New York, we have offices in Boston, up in Washington, so around the country. But I'll answer your question in general about the Southeast.

是的。當我們說其他市場時，實際上也可能包括我們的一些業務——我們在紐約、波士頓、華盛頓以及全國各地都有辦事處。但我會整體回答你關於東南部的問題。

It's a great story for us. We expect loan growth this year down there to be just fantastic, north of 50%. We continue to add really, really good relationships. We're continuing to add bankers in the market, all the way from Florida to North Carolina. And so, that is very exciting for us.

對我們來說這是一個很棒的故事。我們預計今年那裡的貸款成長率將非常驚人，超過 50%。我們將繼續增進真正良好的關係。我們正在繼續向市場增加銀行家，從佛羅裡達州到北卡羅來納州。這對我們來說非常令人興奮。

When we talk about the Mountain West, we're also very excited there. We've hired some new leadership to lead that whole region. We've hired new leadership in our Phoenix market, and we're trying to add bankers in both Denver and Phoenix. And so, we're very excited about what those opportunities are as well.

當我們談論山區西部時，我們對那裡也感到非常興奮。我們聘請了一些新的領導者來領導整個地區。我們在鳳凰城市場聘請了新的領導，並且正在嘗試在丹佛和鳳凰城增加銀行家。因此，我們對這些機會也感到非常興奮。

But when we say other markets too, it could be a lot of our geographies, we are a national bank, even though we get described often as a regional bank, but we play around the entire country. We have customers in many, many states and cities. And so, those could be some of the other markets that are included there as well.

但是當我們說其他市場時，也可能指我們的許多地區，我們是一家全國性銀行，儘管我們經常被描述為地區性銀行，但我們的業務範圍遍布全國。我們的客戶遍布許多州和城市。因此，這些也可能是其中包括的一些其他市場。

Nick Holowko, UBS.

瑞銀的 Nick Holowko。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just first one on expenses. I know last quarter in the past, you've talked about working towards getting to that high-50s efficiency ratio over time in terms of reaching your ROTCE targets over the next couple of years.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。也許只是第一個關於費用的問題。我知道上個季度，您曾談到要努力在未來幾年內達到 ROTCE 目標，從而達到 50% 以上的效率比率。

Just looking at the expense outlook and comparing that with the revenues, it seems like it's still point to an upper-60% efficiency ratio type range in the second half. So how should we think about the timeline of improving that efficiency ratio and when you think you can get back to that high-50s type range?

僅從費用前景來看，並將其與收入進行比較，似乎下半年的效率比率仍將達到 60% 以上。那麼，我們應該如何考慮提高效率比率的時間表，以及您認為何時可以回到 50 年代後期的效率範圍？

Yeah. Good morning, Nick. It's Jim. Yeah. We are expecting ourselves to move back into the 50% range at some point. That won't be real near term. I will say, with all of this uncertainty, I think it's hard to make any kind of commitment right now until things become a little more clear in terms of where the economy is headed.

是的。早安，尼克。是吉姆。是的。我們預計最終會回到 50% 的範圍內。短期內這還不會實現。我想說，由於存在所有這些不確定性，我認為現在很難做出任何承諾，直到經濟走向變得更加明朗為止。

But we do think that the key to achieving that ratio and moving into the 50s, we think, first and foremost, it's going to be driven by revenue. And as you kind of model this out, it's really hard to expense save yourself into the 50s. I mean you can do that for any one year or two and make a little bit of progress.

但我們確實認為，實現這一比例並進入 50% 的關鍵首先在於收入。正如您所模擬的那樣，要將自己的開支節省到 50 多歲真的很難。我的意思是，你可以這樣做一兩年並取得一點進步。

But if you start compounding that backwards, you really start starving the bank of the investments it needs to make, you get diminishing returns at some point. Conversely, we like what we have going in terms of revenue initiatives. We talked about some of those at the big investor conference in March.

但如果你開始反向複合，你實際上就會開始使銀行缺乏它需要進行的投資，在某個時候你會得到遞減的回報。相反，我們喜歡我們在收入計劃方面所採取的措施。我們在三月的大型投資者會議上討論了其中的一些問題。

We do think that revenue has the potential to compound itself in an upward fashion over time. And so, we are very much focused on a number of revenue initiatives, which, again, we laid out at that investor conference. We'll be talking more about some of those revenue initiatives as time goes on.

我們確實認為收入有可能隨著時間的推移而呈上升趨勢。因此，我們非常關註一系列收入計劃，我們在投資者會議上也再次闡述了這些計劃。隨著時間的推移，我們將會更多地討論其中一些收入舉措。

Having said that expenses are part of the equation. So we do need to be diligent in terms of how we manage expenses. We want to make sure that where we're spending money, it's for investment and revenue-oriented activities, and making sure that we're managing those as tight as we can, especially the discretionary expenses. So we have our eyes on both sides of the equation. But really revenue over the next two, three, four years, that's really what we think is going to start moving our efficiency ratio in the right direction.

話雖如此，費用也是其中的一部分。因此，我們確實需要在管理費用方面勤勉。我們希望確保我們花錢的地方，是用於投資和以收入為導向的活動，並確保我們盡可能嚴格地管理這些資金，特別是可自由支配的開支。因此，我們要關注等式的兩邊。但實際上，我們認為未來兩、三、四年的收入將開始推動我們的效率比率朝著正確的方向發展。

Understood. Thank you. And then maybe just one last one on the loan growth outlook. Obviously, the backdrop is what it is, but you highlighted the environmental services as being relatively more robust. Can you just remind us what drives the strength in that business? And how long do you think it can continue to sort of outperform here in this softer growth backdrop? Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。最後再談貸款成長前景。顯然，背景就是這樣，但您強調環境服務相對更加強勁。您能否提醒我們一下推動該業務發展的動力是什麼？您認為在這種成長放緩的背景下，它的優異表現還能持續多久？謝謝。

Yeah. Nick, in the appendix on slide 37 is a breakout of that business. And I think we really talk about two verticals there, our waste management business, which continues to just grow with the economy, with population. I mean it's a fantastic growth business for us.

是的。尼克，第 37 張投影片的附錄中是該業務的詳情。我認為我們實際上談論的是兩個垂直領域，即我們的廢棄物管理業務，該業務隨著經濟和人口的增長而持續增長。我的意思是，這對我們來說是一項極好的成長業務。

And then we've also started our renewables energy business that we show on the environmental services slide, which continues to be a real growth opportunity for us as well. So I think when you look at that on an outlook quarter-by-quarter basis, I think we're going to continue to see just nice steady growth in really both of those verticals. And we are really excited about continuing to add people and customers in that space.

然後，我們也啟動了在環境服務幻燈片中展示的可再生能源業務，這對我們來說也是一個真正的成長機會。因此，我認為，當你逐季度看待這個問題時，我們會繼續看到這兩個垂直領域都呈現良好的穩定成長。我們非常高興能夠繼續在該領域增加人才和客戶。

Bill Carcache, Wolfe Research.

比爾‧卡卡什（Bill Carcache），沃爾夫研究公司。

Good morning. Just a quick follow-up on your comments around non-interest bearing deposit growth potentially accelerating in the second half of the year? I believe you said you'd be willing to pay up for those. Would that be through earnings credits, if you could just unpack that a little bit, it would be helpful.

早安.您剛才提到，今年下半年無利息存款成長可能會加速，對此您有何看法？我相信你說過你願意為這些付出代價。那是不是透過收入抵免來實現的，如果你能稍微解釋一下，那將會很有幫助。

Yeah. Bill, let me clarify that. When I talked about being willing to pay up for deposits, that was interest-bearing deposits. So we do expect to see a small tick up in non-interest bearing as we move through the latter part of the year, but the greater proportion of our deposit growth that we're projecting will be interest-bearing deposits.

是的。比爾，讓我澄清一下。我講願意支付存款，是指有利息的存款。因此，我們確實預計，隨著今年下半年的到來，無息存款將出現小幅增長，但我們預計存款成長的更大比例將是計息存款。

Now broker deposits will continue to come down. So we still think that non-interest bearing percentage will stay in the upper-30s. But in terms of our core deposits, I believe we'll see more growth on the interest-bearing side as we have a number of initiatives in place.

現在經紀人的押金將繼續下降。因此我們仍然認為無息利率將維持在30%以上。但就我們的核心存款而言，我相信，由於我們已經採取了一系列舉措，我們將看到生息業務的更多成長。

And in many cases, we'll actually garner those deposits at pay rates similar to what we have today. But in some cases, we may be willing to pay up for those deposits. And again, happy to do so to the extent we can be successful in gathering deposits. So hopefully, that helps clarify it.

在很多情況下，我們實際上會以與今天類似的支付率來收取這些存款。但在某些情況下，我們可能願意支付這些押金。再次，只要我們能夠成功收集存款，我們就會很高興這樣做。希望這有助於澄清這一點。

Yeah. And Bill, just to emphasize, that's not a strategy of ours to pay up for interest-bearing deposits, but it's more just what we think the market might give us as the year sort of plays out and things sort of settled down.

是的。比爾，我要強調的是，這不是我們的策略，不是為有利息的存款付款，而是我們認為隨著時間的推移、情況逐漸穩定下來，市場可能會為我們帶來回報。

Now if we can sort of go through a recession, et cetera, that may be a different story as we typically have seen deposits grow for us, especially in the non-interest-bearing category.

現在，如果我們能夠度過經濟衰退等等，情況可能會有所不同，因為我們通常會看到存款成長，特別是在無息類別中。

Understood. That's very helpful. Thank you for the clarification. If I may, since we're on the topic, could you elaborate a little bit on how you're thinking about the longer-term trajectory of your non-interest bearing deposit growth under different macro scenarios, maybe it's been an important part of the Comerica story historically and as we look to a more normalized environment in the years ahead, how do you envision that part of the business would be helpful.

明白了。這非常有幫助。感謝您的澄清。既然我們談到了這個話題，請問您能否詳細說明一下，在不同的宏觀情景下，您如何看待無息存款成長的長期軌跡？也許從歷史上看，這是 Comerica 歷史上的一個重要組成部分，當我們展望未來幾年更正常化的環境時，您認為這部分業務會有什麼幫助？

Yeah. Bill. Non-interest bearing deposits are a very key part of our business model, as you point out. It's probably the biggest X factor, especially in this rate environment for 2025 that we have. So we are watching those very closely.

是的。帳單。正如您所指出的，無利息存款是我們商業模式的關鍵部分。這可能是最大的X因素，尤其是在我們面臨的2025年利率環境下。因此我們正在密切關注這些。

We do think in this higher rate environment, customers are a little more sensitized to their mix of deposits. And so, that has put some pressure on non-interest bearing deposits. We do think that if and when rates start to lower a little bit, we'll actually see that as a positive tailwind to growing noninterest-bearing deposits as customers become a little less sensitive to how they store their mix of deposits.

我們確實認為，在這種較高利率的環境下，客戶對其存款組合會更加敏感。因此，這給無息存款帶來了一些壓力。我們確實認為，如果利率開始略微下降，我們實際上會將其視為無息存款成長的積極推動力，因為客戶對如何儲存存款組合的敏感度會降低一些。

We also expect -- to the extent we have some inflation, which it looks like we may continue to have some inflationary environment with us, that does result ultimately in overall working capital levels needing to be larger for our customers. So we would expect as the nominal economy grows, that we would see noninterest-bearing deposits grow proportionately to that.

我們也預期－在通貨膨脹的範圍內，看起來我們可能會繼續面臨通貨膨脹的環境，這最終會導致我們的客戶需要更大的整體營運資本水準。因此，我們預計，隨著名目經濟的成長，無息​​存款也會隨之成長。

And of course, we're doing a lot on the product side with our treasury management services, which are key to garnering additional non-interest bearing deposits. So very much a focus of ours from a product development standpoint.

當然，我們在產品方面做了很多工作，包括提供資金管理服務，這對於吸引額外的無利息存款至關重要。從產品開發的角度來看，這是我們關注的重點。

And we also think just economic trends will also be beneficial to non-interest bearing deposits. So it's been a little bit of a tough go on non-interest bearing deposits the last couple of years, but we do see some tailwinds going forward in the future.

我們也認為，經濟趨勢也將有利於無息存款。因此，過去幾年無利息存款的經營狀況有點艱難，但我們確實看到了未來將出現的一些有利因素。

That's very helpful. Thank you for taking my questions.

這非常有幫助。感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Curt Farmer, President, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer for closing comments.

謝謝。現在，我想把發言權交還給總裁、董事長兼執行長 Curt Farmer，請他發表最後評論。

Well, as always, thank you for your ongoing interest in Comerica and for joining our call today. Hope you have a nice day.

好吧，一如既往，感謝您對 Comerica 的持續關注以及今天參加我們的電話會議。祝您有個愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的活動到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路或退出網路廣播，享受剩餘的一天。