Comerica Inc (CMA) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Comerica second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

您好，歡迎參加聯信 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Kelly Gage, Director of Investor Relations.

現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係總監凱利·蓋奇(Kelly Gage)。

Please go ahead, Kelly.

請繼續，凱利。

Thanks, Kevin.

謝謝，凱文。

Good morning, and welcome to Comerica's second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加聯信 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman and CEO, Curt Farmer; Chief Financial Officer, Jim Herzog; Chief Credit Officer, Melinda Chausse; and Chief Banking Officer, Peter Sefzik.

參加本次電話會議的包括我們的總裁、董事長兼執行長 Curt Farmer；財務長吉姆·赫爾佐格；首席信貸官 Melinda Chausse；和首席銀行官 Peter Sefzik。

During this presentation, we will be referring to slides which provide additional details.

在本次簡報中，我們將參考提供更多詳細資訊的幻燈片。

The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC's website as well as on the Investor Relations section of our website, Comerica.com.

簡報投影片和我們的新聞稿可在 SEC 網站以及我們網站 Comerica.com 的投資者關係部分取得。

The presentation and this conference call contain forward-looking statements.

此簡報和本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。

In that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially from expectations.

在這方面，您應該注意可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的風險和不確定性。

Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

前瞻性陳述僅代表截至本簡報發布之日的情況，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor statement in today's earnings presentation on Slide 2.

請參閱今天投影片 2 的收益簡報中的安全港聲明。

Also, the presentation in this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures.

此外，本次電話會議的示範將參考非公認會計準則衡量標準。

In that regard, I direct you to the reconciliation of these measures in the earnings materials that are available on our website, Comerica.com.

在這方面，我將指導您在我們的網站 Comerica.com 上提供的收益資料中對這些措施進行核對。

Now I'll turn the call over to Curt, who will begin on slide 3.

現在我將把電話轉給 Curt，他將從幻燈片 3 開始。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。

Today, we reported second quarter earnings of $206 million, or $1.49 per share, outperforming the first quarter on both the reported and an adjusted basis.

今天，我們報告第二季收益為 2.06 億美元，即每股 1.49 美元，在報告和調整後的基礎上均優於第一季。

Although average loans declined, our targeted focus on responsible growth drove an inflection in balances throughout the quarter.

儘管平均貸款有所下降，但我們對負責任成長的目標關注推動了整個季度餘額的變化。

In an uncertain economic and political environment, customer sentiment appeared slightly less optimistic than last quarter.

在不確定的經濟和政治環境下，客戶情緒似乎略低於上季樂觀。

However, a number of our businesses saw positive momentum, and we believe our pipeline supports start growth outlook.

然而，我們的許多業務都出現了積極的勢頭，我們相信我們的管道支持啟動成長前景。

As expected, net interest margin started to rebound in both noninterest income and noninterest expenses improved.

如預期，隨著非利息收入和非利息支出的改善，淨利差開始反彈。

Credit quality remained strong, reflecting our proven underwriting discipline.

信貸品質依然強勁，反映出我們久經考驗的核保紀律。

Being a responsible company is deeply embedded in our culture and in June, we published our 16th annual corporate responsibility report detailing our commitments to this important topic.

作為一家負責任的公司深深植根於我們的文化中，6 月，我們發布了第 16 份年度企業責任報告，詳細說明了我們對這一重要主題的承諾。

We remain proud of our efforts to prioritize our employees and communities.

我們仍然為我們優先考慮員工和社區的努力感到自豪。

Once again, US News recognized us as one of the best companies to work for and we were named 1 of the 50 most community minded organizations.

《美國新聞與世界報道》再次將我們評為最適合工作的公司之一，並被評為 50 家最具社區意識的組織之一。

We feel responsible business is good business, and we take proud of the unique role we play in supporting our markets.

我們認為負責任的企業是好企業，我們為我們在支持市場方面發揮的獨特作用感到自豪。

Second quarter financial highlights are on slide 4.

第二季財務亮點請見投影片 4。

Average loans were impacted by muted first quarter demand, but balances increased consistently throughout the quarter.

平均貸款受到第一季需求疲軟的影響，但整個季度餘額持續成長。

Our deliberate first quarter reduction in brokered time deposits drove a majority of the decline in average deposits.

我們第一季有意減少經紀定期存款，這是平均存款下降的主要原因。

However, we also continue to see pressure on nonninterest-bearing balances as we near what we believe may be the peak of the rate cycle.

然而，隨著我們認為利率週期可能達到峰值，我們也繼續看到無息餘額面臨壓力。

The decline in net interest income reflected both lower Fed deposits and average loans.

淨利息收入的下降反映了聯準會儲存款和平均貸款的下降。

Charge-offs remain below historical averages at 9 basis points, and our loan loss reserves declined modestly.

核銷仍低於歷史平均 9 個基點，我們的貸款損失準備金略有下降。

Even excluding the net benefit from lower notable items, both noninterest income and noninterest expenses and saw favorable trends.

即使排除較​​低顯著項目的淨收益，非利息收入和非利息支出也呈現良好的趨勢。

Taxes increased due to higher income and less of a benefit from discrete items and our estimated CET1 of 11.55% remained above our 10% strategic target.

由於收入增加和離散項目收益減少，稅收增加，我們估計的 CET1 為 11.55%，仍然高於我們 10% 的策略目標。

However, we remain at an elevated rate environment, we think that favorable customer related trends, coupled with the expected structural benefit to net interest income in coming quarters positions us well.

然而，我們仍處於高利率環境，我們認為有利的客戶相關趨勢，加上未來幾季淨利息收入的預期結構性效益，使我們處於有利地位。

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim to review our second quarter financial results in more detail.

現在我將把電話轉給吉姆，以更詳細地審查我們第二季的財務業績。

Jim?

吉姆？

Thanks, Curt, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，柯特，大家早安。

Turning to slide 5, trailing effects of rationalization efforts, coupled with soft demand at the start of the year, impacted average loan balances in the second quarter.

轉向幻燈片 5，合理化努力的滯後效應，加上年初的需求疲軟，影響了第二季的平均貸款餘額。

Low utilization trends persisted in Equity Fund Services although balances rebounded in June and elevated rates continued to impact Wealth Management loans.

儘管 6 月餘額反彈且利率上升繼續影響財富管理貸款，但股票基金服務的使用率仍然較低。

Commercial real estate utilization trended higher.

商業不動產利用率呈上升趨勢。

However, period-end balances remained flat to the first quarter.

然而，期末餘額卻與第一季持平。

We haven't purposefully managing commitments and originations in this space for several quarters, and we expect to begin to see growth subside in this business.

我們已經有幾個季度沒有有目的地管理該領域的承諾和起源，我們預計該業務的成長將開始放緩。

Total loan balances grew consistently throughout the quarter with period-end loans up over $1 billion.

本季總貸款餘額持續成長，期末貸款超過 10 億美元。

National Dealer Services contributed to quarter end growth with elevated balances due in part to the cyber-attack that impacted dealerships nationwide in June.

全國經銷商服務部餘額增加，為季末成長做出了貢獻，部分原因是 6 月影響全國經銷商的網路攻擊。

But we also saw increases across most business lines.

但我們也看到大多數業務線的成長。

Our pipeline remains strong and supports our expectation for continued growth.

我們的產品線依然強勁，支持我們持續成長的預期。

Moving to Slide 6.

轉到投影片 6。

Average deposit balances declined $2.3 billion, but almost 70% of the decrease was attributed to lower brokered time deposits.

平均存款餘額下降 23 億美元，但近 70% 的下降歸因於經紀定期存款減少。

Pressure on noninterest bearing balances increased relative to trends we observed in the latter half of the first quarter as customers utilize funds to support ongoing business activity or reduce borrowings.

與我們在第一季後半段觀察到的趨勢相比，無息餘額的壓力增加，因為客戶利用資金支持持續的業務活動或減少借款。

Tax-related seasonality impacted select businesses such as Municipalities.

與稅收相關的季節性影響了市政當局等特定企業。

While we saw some deposit remixing at the customer level, it did not appear to be the biggest driver.

雖然我們在客戶層面看到了一些存款重新混合，但這似乎不是最大的推動因素。

Even with noninterest-bearing balance trends and ongoing success in winning new interest-bearing deposit relationships, we believe our noninterest-bearing mix remain peer-leading, averaging 40% for the quarter.

即使有無息餘額趨勢並且在贏得新的有息存款關係方面持續取得成功，我們相信我們的無息存款組合仍處於同行領先地位，本季度平均為 40%。

Interest-bearing deposit costs improved 5 basis points, driven by lower brokered time deposits and increases in customer deposit pricing continued to flatten.

受經紀定期存款減少和客戶存款定價漲幅繼續趨平的推動，計息存款成本提高了 5 個基點。

As rates decline, we expect to see an inflection point in deposit balances, mix and costs.

隨著利率下降，我們預計存款餘額、結構和成本將出現轉折點。

In the meantime, we remain encouraged by our success in growing interest-bearing deposits and continue pricing discipline.

同時，我們仍然對我們在增加有息存款和繼續定價紀律方面取得的成功感到鼓舞。

Period-end balances in our securities portfolio on slide 7 declined with continued paydowns and maturities as the mark-to-market adjustment remained relatively flat.

由於按市值計算的調整保持相對平穩，投影片 7 中我們的證券投資組合的期末餘額隨著持續的還款和到期而下降。

We expect continued decline in balances through at least the end of the year.

我們預計至少到今年年底餘額將持續下降。

Turning to Slide 8.

轉到投影片 8。

Net interest income decreased $15 million to $533 million, driven by lower Fed deposits and loan balances, partially offset by decline in wholesale funding.

由於聯準會儲存和貸款餘額下降，淨利息收入減少 1,500 萬美元，至 5.33 億美元，但部分被批發融資的下降所抵銷。

Impacts from the BSBY cessation drove $6 million of the decline as we recognized a $3 million non-cash loss in the second quarter compared to a $3 million increase in the first quarter.

BSBY 停止的影響導致了 600 萬美元的下降，因為我們認識到第二季度非現金損失為 300 萬美元，而第一季非現金損失增加了 300 萬美元。

As a reminder, you can find the expected future BSBY impacts in the appendix to the slides.

提醒一下，您可以在投影片的附錄中找到 BSBY 未來的預期影響。

Normalization of our cash position drove an increase in net interest margin for the quarter.

我們現金部位的正常化推動了本季淨利差的增加。

As shown on slide 9, successful execution of our interest rates strategy and the composition of our balance sheet positions us favorably for a gradual 100 basis points or 50 basis points on average decline in interest rates.

如投影片 9 所示，我們的利率策略的成功執行和資產負債表的組成使我們有利於利率逐步平均下降 100 個基點或 50 個基點。

By strategically managing our swap and securities portfolios, while considering balance sheet dynamics, we intend to maintain our insulated position over time.

透過策略性地管理我們的掉期和證券投資組合，同時考慮資產負債表的動態，我們打算隨著時間的推移保持我們的絕緣頭寸。

Credit quality remained strong, as highlighted on slide 10.

正如幻燈片 10 所強調的那樣，信貸品質依然強勁。

Net charge-offs of 9 bps decline for the second consecutive quarter and remain well below our normal range.

淨沖銷連續第二季下降 9 個基點，仍遠低於我們的正常範圍。

Although customers continued to navigate high borrowing costs and inflation, we saw an improvement in criticized loans concentrated in our core middle market businesses.

儘管客戶繼續應對高借貸成本和通貨膨脹的影響，但我們看到，受到批評的貸款有所改善，集中在我們的核心中間市場業務。

Nonaccrual loans ticked up slightly, but still remained below historical averages.

非應計貸款略有上升，但仍低於歷史平均。

We did not observe any new emerging pressures, and metrics within our incrementally monitored portfolios remained relatively consistent.

我們沒有觀察到任何新出現的壓力，並且我們逐步監控的投資組合中的指標保持相對一致。

With a reduction in the allowance for credit losses to 1.38% of total loans, we continue to believe ongoing migration will remain manageable.

隨著信貸損失準備金減少至貸款總額的 1.38%，我們仍然相信正在進行的移民仍將是可控的。

On Slide 11, second quarter non-interest income of $291 million increased $55 million.

在投影片 11 中，第二季非利息收入為 2.91 億美元，增加了 5,500 萬美元。

Although a majority of the increase was related to the impact of BSBY cessation in the first quarter, we were encouraged to see growth across most customer related categories.

儘管大部分成長與第一季停止 BSBY 的影響有關，但我們很高興看到大多數客戶相關類別的成長。

Capital markets' income grew in each product including M&A advisory services as a result of the new team we put in place last year.

由於我們去年組成了新團隊，包括併購諮詢服務在內的各種產品的資本市場收入均有所成長。

Fiduciary income saw seasonal tax-related increases and brokerage income benefited from investments in our new platform for Comerica Financial Advisors.

信託收入出現了與稅收相關的季節性成長，經紀收入受益於我們新的 Comerica Financial Advisors 平台的投資。

We were pleased to see successful revenue growth associated with our strategic focus on noninterest income and continue to prioritize these key investments.

我們很高興看到與我們對非利息收入的策略重點相關的成功收入成長，並繼續優先考慮這些關鍵投資。

Expenses on slide 12, improved $48 million over the prior quarter.

第 12 張投影片上的費用比上一季減少了 4,800 萬美元。

Salaries and benefits declined $25 million with seasonally lower stock-based compensation as the biggest driver.

薪資和福利下降了 2500 萬美元，季節性較低的股票薪資是最大的推動因素。

FDIC expense came down due to the large special assessment in the first quarter.

由於第一季的大型特別評估，FDIC 費用有所下降。

Other expenses decline, including consulting, operational losses and asset impairment costs associated with real estate rationalization, partially offset by seasonally higher advertising.

其他費用下降，包括與房地產合理化相關的諮詢、營運損失和資產減損成本，但部分被季節性較高的廣告費用所抵銷。

Overall expense management remains a high priority as we continue to seek opportunities to drive positive operating leverage and efficiency.

隨著我們繼續尋求機會推動積極的營運槓桿和效率，整體費用管理仍然是重中之重。

As shown on slide 13, higher profitability coupled with conservative capital management drove increases across all of our key capital ratios.

如投影片 13 所示，更高的獲利能力加上保守的資本管理推動了我們所有關鍵資本比率的成長。

Our estimated CET1 grew to 11.55% and adjusting for the AOCI opt-out, our estimated CET1 remained above required regulatory minimums and buffers.

我們估計的 CET1 成長至 11.55%，並根據 AOCI 選擇退出進行調整，我們估計的 CET1 仍高於監管最低要求和緩衝要求。

Despite volatility throughout the quarter, at quarter end, AOCI remained relatively flat.

儘管整個季度出現波動，但截至季度末，AOCI 仍相對持平。

As we think about ongoing capital management, we need to continue to monitor AOCI movement, our loan outlook and regulations as they evolve.

當我們考慮持續的資本管理時，我們需要繼續監控 AOCI 的變動、我們的貸款前景和法規的演變。

Before moving to the outlook, as indicated on slide 14, we recently received preliminary notification from the fiscal service that Comerica Bank was not selected to continue serving as the financial agent for the Direct Express prepaid debit card program following the expiration of our contract early next year.

在展望展望之前，如幻燈片14 所示，我們最近收到了財政服務部門的初步通知，表示在我們的合約將於明年初到期後，聯信銀行未被選為繼續擔任Direct Express 預付借記卡計劃的金融代理年。

This process remains fluid as contract negotiations are not yet final, but at this time, we do not expect that Comerica Bank will retain the business long-term.

由於合約談判尚未最終確定，這一過程仍然不穩定，但目前我們預計聯信銀行不會長期保留該業務。

As detailed on the slide, we recognize noninterest income and card fees, but that is generally offset by expenses associated with managing the program.

正如幻燈片中所詳述的，我們承認非利息收入和卡費用，但這通常被與管理該計劃相關的費用所抵消。

The financial value has been in the noninterest-bearing deposit balances related to monthly benefits funded on the cards, which have grown over time and averaged $3.3 billion in the second quarter.

財務價值體現在與卡上每月福利相關的無息存款餘額中，該餘額隨著時間的推移而增長，第二季度平均達到 33 億美元。

As we have discussed in the past, there are various potential scenarios with regards to the timing and mechanics of the deposit transition, and we expect more detail in the coming quarters as terms become final.

正如我們過去所討論的，關於存款過渡的時間和機制存在各種潛在的情況，我們預計隨著條款的最終確定，未來幾季會出現更多細節。

However, our experience for this program leads us to believe this transition may be longer than shorter, and we do not currently anticipate an impact to 2024 deposit balances, noninterest income or expenses.

然而，根據我們對該計劃的經驗，我們相信這一過渡可能會更長而不是更短，而且我們目前預計不會對 2024 年存款餘額、非利息收入或支出產生影響。

While we have been honored to manage this important program, we see this as an opportunity to refocus and reprioritize resources towards targeted deposit strategies, more aligned with our core relationship operating model.

雖然我們很榮幸能夠管理這項重要計劃，但我們認為這是一個機會，可以重新調整資源的重點和優先順序，以實現有針對性的存款策略，與我們的核心關係營運模式更加一致。

Several of these key initiatives are listed on slide 15 and leverage proven expertise, coupled with strategic investments with the goal of driving core deposit growth and consistent funding over time.

其中幾項關鍵措施列於投影片 15 中，並利用經過驗證的專業知識以及旨在推動核心存款成長和長期持續融資的策略性投資。

As an example, we have been leaning into our competitive position as the leading bank for business to expand our focus within small business.

例如，我們一直在依靠我們作為領先商業銀行的競爭地位來擴大我們對小型企業的關注。

Expected growth in this space should enhance the granularity and consistency of our deposit profile and we were encouraged to see our investments drive favorable customer trends for the quarter.

這一領域的預期成長應該會提高我們存款狀況的粒度和一致性，我們很高興看到我們的投資推動了本季有利的客戶趨勢。

So like talent acquisition and business optimization activities and treasury management and payments have been designed to further capitalize on our strong core product set and should allow us to deliver more comprehensive liquidity solutions to our customers.

因此，人才招募、業務優化活動以及資金管理和支付旨在進一步利用我們強大的核心產品集，並使我們能夠為客戶提供更全面的流動性解決方案。

Through our experience with Direct Express, we have developed competitive card capabilities that we are already leveraging to win new relationships.

透過我們在 Direct Express 的經驗，我們開發了具有競爭力的銀行卡功能，我們已經利用這些功能來贏得新的關係。

Online enhancements within retail are intended to further improve the user experience while expanding our customer reach.

零售業的線上增強功能旨在進一步改善用戶體驗，同時擴大我們的客戶範圍。

Finally, we see opportunities to leverage our existing delivery model, strong product set and industry knowledge to further target deposit rich customers, which should help drive stable funding opportunities.

最後，我們看到了利用我們現有的交付模式、強大的產品組合和行業知識來進一步瞄準存款豐富的客戶的機會，這將有助於推動穩定的融資機會。

In short, we are very excited about the deposit initiatives we are executing on and look forward to continuing to prioritize deposit growth as a key strategic focus.

簡而言之，我們對正在執行的存款計劃感到非常興奮，並期待繼續將存款成長作為關鍵策略重點。

Our outlook for 2024 is on Slide 16.

我們對 2024 年的展望如投影片 16 所示。

We project full year average loans declined 4% or grow 2% point to point from year end 2023 to 2024.

我們預計從 2023 年底到 2024 年，全年平均貸款將下降 4% 或成長 2%。

Trailing effects from our strategic optimization efforts and muted demand across the industry dampened our outlook slightly.

我們的策略優化努力和整個產業需求疲軟的拖累效應略微削弱了我們的前景。

However, our strong pipeline and momentum still supports broad-based growth expectations in the second half of the year.

然而，我們強勁的產品線和勢頭仍然支持下半年的廣泛成長預期。

Full year average deposits are projected to be down 3% from 2023 or down 2% point to point.

預計全年平均存款將比 2023 年下降 3%，較上季下降 2%。

We expect average brokered time deposits to be relatively consistent from full year 2023 to full year 2024.

我們預計 2023 年全年至 2024 年全年平均經紀定期存款將相對穩定。

Although we anticipate some level of continued cyclical pressure on noninterest-bearing balances and ongoing success in winning new interest-bearing deposits, we expect to maintain a favorable deposit mix in the upper 30s.

儘管我們預計無息餘額將繼續面臨一定程度的週期性壓力，並且在贏得新的有息存款方面將持續取得成功，但我們預計有利的存款組合將維持在30%左右。

The combination of noninterest-bearing deposit trends and lower average loans impacts our net interest income outlook as we now project a 14% decline year over year.

無利息存款趨勢和平均貸款下降的結合影響了我們的淨利息收入前景，因為我們現在預計淨利息收入將年減 14%。

On a quarterly basis, we expect those same deposit and loan pressures and the negative impact from BSBY cessation to drive a 2% to 3% decline in net interest income.

以季度計算，我們預期同樣的存貸款壓力以及 BSBY 停止的負面影響將導致淨利息收入下降 2% 至 3%。

Adjusting for BSBY, third quarter net interest income is only expected to decline a modest 1% as we believe we were at a cyclical low point.

調整 BSBY 後，第三季淨利息收入預計僅小幅下降 1%，因為我們認為我們正處於週期性低點。

We also believe deposit costs will continue to increase slightly until rates begin to decline.

我們也認為，存款成本將繼續小幅上升，直到利率開始下降。

Credit quality remains strong and successful recoveries helped drive lower net charge-offs this quarter.

信貸品質依然強勁，成功的復甦有助於推動本季淨沖銷下降。

With persistent elevated rates and inflationary pressures, we believe modest migration is possible.

由於利率持續升高和通貨膨脹壓力，我們認為適度的移民是可能的。

However, we expect it to remain manageable.

然而，我們預計其仍將是可控的。

Given our strong results to date, we forecast full year net charge-offs to approach but remain below at the lower end of our normal 20 to 40 basis points range.

鑑於我們迄今為止的強勁業績，我們預計全年淨沖銷將接近，但仍低於我們正常的 20 至 40 個基點範圍的下限。

We expect noninterest income to grow approximately 1% to 2% on a reported basis, which would be down 1% year to year when adjusting for BSBY and the impact of the Ameriprise transition as detailed in the appendix.

我們預計非利息收入在報告基礎上將增長約 1% 至 2%，根據 BSBY 和附錄中詳述的 Ameriprise 轉型的影響進行調整後，非利息收入將同比下降 1%。

Third quarter non-interest income is expected to decline 3% to 4%, driven largely by lower projected noncustomer income.

第三季非利息收入預計將下降 3% 至 4%，這主要是由於預期非客戶收入下降。

Within the second quarter, we recognized a $6 million gain due to our derivative related to the Visa Class B exchange program and benefited from smaller valuation adjustments accounted for in other income.

在第二季度，我們因與 Visa B 類交換計畫相關的衍生性商品而確認了 600 萬美元的收益，並受益於其他收入中較小的估值調整。

We project lower FHLB dividends consistent with lower wholesale funding, and we expect risk management income to decline based on the forward curve and our hedge position.

我們預計 FHLB 股息的下降與批發融資的下降一致，根據遠期曲線和我們的對沖頭寸，我們預計風險管理收入將下降。

Despite these nine customer trends, we remain very encouraged about our customer related momentum and investments to grow fee income over time.

儘管有這九種客戶趨勢，但我們仍然對客戶相關的動力和隨著時間的推移增加費用收入的投資感到非常鼓舞。

Full year noninterest expenses are expected to decline 2% to 3% on a reported basis to grow 4% after adjusting for special FDIC assessments, expense recalibration, modernization and the accounting impact from the Ameriprise transition.

根據 FDIC 的特別評估、費用重新調整、現代化以及 Ameriprise 轉型帶來的會計影響進行調整後，預計全年非利息支出將下降 2% 至 3%，增長 4%。

Third quarter noninterest expenses are expected to increase 3% to 4% over the relatively lower second quarter levels as we intend to reinvest savings from our expense calibration efforts into headcount aligned with our risk management and strategic priorities.

第三季非利息支出預計將比第二季相對較低的水平增加3% 至4%，因為我們打算將支出校準工作節省的資金再投資到與我們的風險管理和策略優先事項相一致的員工隊伍中。

We also expect to see elevated occupancy expense associated with transitioning our corporate facilities and seasonally higher taxes, maintenance and repair.

我們也預計，與公司設施轉型以及季節性較高的稅收、維護和維修相關的佔用費用將會增加。

With an ongoing focus on expense discipline, we continue to seek opportunities to offset or self-fund emerging pressures.

隨著對費用紀律的持續關注，我們繼續尋找機會來抵銷或自籌資金新出現的壓力。

Even with strong projected loan growth in the second half of the year, we expect our CET1 ratio to remain well above our 10% strategic target through year end.

即使預計下半年貸款成長強勁，我們預計到年底我們的 CET1 比率仍將遠高於 10% 的策略目標。

We will continue to monitor AOCI and the regulatory environment as we take a conservative approach to share repurchases in 2024.

我們將繼續監控 AOCI 和監管環境，並在 2024 年採取保守的股票回購方式。

Despite some near-term cyclical pressures, we expect continued momentum in the second half of the year to position us well for 2025.

儘管近期存在一些週期性壓力，但我們預計下半年的持續動能將為我們在 2025 年做好準備。

Now I'll turn the call back to Curt.

現在我將把電話轉回給柯特。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

We are proud of our second quarter results and find the more recent loan and fee income growth trends, coupled with our overall earnings trajectory to be compelling.

我們對第二季的業績感到自豪，並發現最近的貸款和費用收入成長趨勢以及我們的整體獲利軌跡令人信服。

As highlighted on Slide 17, we feel we have a unique value proposition and it starts with our strong foundation of credit, capital and liquidity.

正如投影片 17 所強調的那樣，我們認為我們擁有獨特的價值主張，而它始於我們堅實的信貸、資本和流動性基礎。

From that foundation, we execute on a diversified strategy across select markets and businesses designed to mitigate risk and deliver enhanced returns over time.

在此基礎上，我們在選定的市場和業務中執行多元化策略，旨在降低風險並隨著時間的推移提供更高的回報。

Tying our strong foundation together with our differentiated strategy, we feel we are well positioned for future growth.

將我們堅實的基礎與差異化策略結合起來，我們認為我們已經為未來的成長做好了充分的準備。

We expect meaningful structural tailwinds to net interest income due to anticipated maturities and repayments within our swap and securities portfolio.

由於我們的掉期和證券投資組合的預期到期和償還，我們預計會對淨利息收入產生有意義的結構性推動。

Our strategic investments are designed to drive consistent capital-efficient income, and we saw encouraging results from those investments this quarter.

我們的策略性投資旨在推動持續的資本效率收入，本季我們從這些投資中看到了令人鼓舞的結果。

Finally, we believe our balance sheet is well positioned for responsible profitable growth as we leverage our demonstrated strength as a commercial lender and prioritize our targeted deposit initiatives.

最後，我們相信，我們的資產負債表處於有利地位，可以實現負責任的盈利增長，因為我們利用我們作為商業貸款人所展現的實力，並優先考慮我們的目標存款計劃。

While the market remains focused on the timing and magnitude of rate cuts, we feel we have positioned our balance sheet to drive long-term value regardless of the rate environment.

儘管市場仍然關注降息的時機和幅度，但我們認為，無論利率環境如何，我們的資產負債表都可以推動長期價值。

We appreciate your time this morning and are happy to take your questions.

我們感謝您今天早上的寶貴時間，並很高興回答您的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Now, we'll be conducting a question and answer session.

現在，我們將進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ken Usdin, Jefferies.

肯‧烏斯丁，傑弗里斯。

Morning, Ken.

早安，肯。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, guys.

早上好傢伙。

Look, I'd like to follow up on the Direct Express and just ask you, you mentioned that it could be delayed to some point.

聽著，我想跟進一下直達快車的情況，請問您，您提到它可能會延遲到某個時間點。

So I'm just wondering if you can walk us through the steps from here.

所以我想知道您是否可以引導我們完成從這裡開始的步驟。

When do you think you'll know when that start point is?

您認為什麼時候會知道起點是什麼時候？

And then I think the most important is the $3.3 billion of average deposits.

然後我認為最重要的是平均存款 33 億美元。

What would be the natural trajectory of time for those to kind of go to zero in the scenario, actually, keep them all even under the transition at start point?

在這種情況下，那些趨於零的時間的自然軌跡是什麼？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, Ken, it's Peter.

是的，肯，是彼得。

So at this point, you know, all of this indication from other fiscal services preliminary, so what the next few months looks like will sort of be determined.

所以在這一點上，你知道，所有這些跡像都來自其他財政服務的初步結果，所以未來幾個月的情況將被確定。

We hope over the next couple of quarters to get a little more clarity on what the transition does look like.

我們希望在接下來的幾個季度中能夠更清楚地了解過渡的情況。

I would tell you, our focus is on working really closely with the fiscal service to make sure that this is a very smooth transition for the customer base here.

我想告訴你，我們的重點是與財務服務部門密切合作，以確保這裡的客戶群能夠順利過渡。

That's really important to us, and I know it's important to them as well.

這對我們來說非常重要，我知道這對他們來說也很重要。

And so we want to be sure that we're able to execute on that for them.

因此，我們希望確保我們能夠為他們執行此操作。

And as far as the timeline of what the deposits look like and when they leave, as we have said for quite a while now, we believe that to be a longer time period rather than a shorter time period.

至於存款的情況以及它們何時離開的時間表，正如我們已經說過很長一段時間的那樣，我們認為這是一個較長的時間段，而不是一個較短的時間段。

It's about as much clarity as I can give to you on it because we just don't really know.

這是我能向您提供的盡可能清晰的信息，因為我們真的不知道。

I would tell you that, our experience having managed this program for a very long time now is that this is a significant transition.

我想告訴你，我們長期以來管理該計劃的經驗是，這是一個重大轉變。

There's 4.5 million cardholders and that this would take a long period of time.

有 450 萬持卡人，這需要很長時間。

So that's going to be something that we will learn hopefully in the coming quarters and as we get more clarity on it, our intention would be to provide that clarity to you as well.

因此，這將是我們希望在未來幾季中學到的東西，隨著我們對它的了解更加清晰，我們的目的也是為您提供這種清晰的資訊。

And I would tell you also that, we continue to be very focused on running our playbook for our relationship model as Curt and Jim has said in our comments.

我還要告訴你，正如柯特和吉姆在我們的評論中所說，我們繼續非常專注於為我們的關係模型運行我們的劇本。

We feel like we've got a whole lot of ways to manage this on a go-forward basis for the Company and feel like we'll be able to redirect these resources to be more focused on what we really do as a leading bank for business.

我們認為，我們有很多方法可以在公司前進的基礎上管理這一問題，並且我們將能夠重新調整這些資源，更加專注於我們作為一家領先銀行真正所做的事情。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just bigger picture question.

然後是更大的問題。

In the scenario where you don't keep it and even if there's a long tail, it still could be a decent hit to earnings power, how much does this change just overall, if at all strategic thinking about where the Company's going in terms of adjusting to a different potential earnings power level?

在你不保留它的情況下，即使有長尾，它仍然可能對盈利能力造成相當大的打擊，這對整體而言有多大變化，如果有的話，關於公司在以下方面的戰略思考適應不同的潛在獲利能力水準？

Good morning, Ken.

早安，肯。

It's Jim.

是吉姆。

I would start out by saying that it is absolutely our intention to replace these deposits over time.

我首先要說的是，隨著時間的推移，我們絕對有意替換這些存款。

As I look at it -- short term, of course, there will be no effect.

在我看來，短期內當然不會有任何影響。

We do think it will be somewhat of an elongated transition.

我們確實認為這將是一個漫長的過渡。

Long term, we do expect to replace these deposits and we expect to replace them with core customer deposits that, as Peter and Curt said, probably better fit our business model.

從長遠來看，我們確實希望取代這些存款，並且我們希望用核心客戶存款取代它們，正如彼得和科特所說，這可能更適合我們的業務模式。

Medium term, we'll wait and see how the transition goes.

從中期來看，我們將拭​​目以待過渡如何進行。

But over time, it is our expectation to replace these with core deposits and minimize the impact -- potentially no impact over the long-term.

但隨著時間的推移，我們期望用核心存款取代這些存款，並將影響降至最低——長期來看可能不會產生影響。

Having said that, to the extent there is a bit of a transition in the medium term, we do start with a great balance sheet.

話雖如此，從中期來看，我們確實有一個好的資產負債表。

Low levels of wholesale funding, loan to deposit ratio, we don't think it affects us strategically.

批發融資水準較低，貸存比較低，我們認為不會對我們產生策略影響。

And I would just emphasize that it is our intention over time to replace these deposits to remove any impact to long term profitability.

我只想強調，隨著時間的推移，我們打算替換這些存款，以消除對長期獲利能力的任何影響。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks Ken.

謝謝肯。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥克格拉蒂，KBW。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Just following up on the question, thinking about how the balance sheet -- you may react with your balance sheet.

只是跟進這個問題，思考資產負債表 - 你可能會對你的資產負債表做出反應。

You've got a bond portfolio that throws off a lot of cash.

你的債券投資組合會浪費大量現金。

Is one -- I'm trying to get a better handle on, is the scenario replace the deposits with interest bearing over time, which is a hit or selling perhaps low yielding bonds to which would perhaps be less of an impact?

是一個——我正在試圖更好地處理，隨著時間的推移，這種情況是否會用帶息的存款取代存款，這會受到打擊，還是出售可能影響較小的低收益債券？

Any color on that would be great.

任何顏色都會很棒。

Good morning, Chris.

早上好，克里斯。

It's Jim.

是吉姆。

You know, we do think the bond portfolio will continue to run down through the end of the year and generate cash.

你知道，我們確實認為債券投資組合將在年底繼續下降並產生現金。

The way I think of it is, that bond portfolio will essentially fund our loan growth between now and the end of the year, perhaps early next year.

我的想法是，債券投資組合基本上將為我們從現在到今年年底（也許是明年初）的貸款成長提供資金。

I wouldn't necessarily lean on the bond portfolio for anything related to the Direct Express program, which is really, again, a longer-term issue and we'll certainly be buying securities by the time we have some type of longer transition for Direct Express.

對於與 Direct Express 計劃相關的任何事情，我不一定會依賴債券投資組合，這確實是一個長期問題，當我們對 Direct Express 進行某種類型的長期過渡時，我們肯定會購買證券表達。

So I view the bond portfolio as more of a shorter-term tactic to fund our loan growth at this point.

因此，我認為債券投資組合更多的是一種短期策略，為我們目前的貸款成長提供資金。

Okay.

好的。

And maybe -- I'm not sure how much you can comment.

也許——我不確定你能發表多少評論。

Was it pricing -- what was it making you think having had this relationship for many years.

是因為定價嗎？

What do you think it was that drove the decision not to be selective?

您認為是什麼促使我們做出不進行選擇性的決定？

Yeah.

是的。

Chris, this is Peter.

克里斯，這是彼得。

Quite candidly, we really can't comment and don't plan to comment on sort of what the decision process was or wasn't, that the fiscal service made.

坦白說，我們確實無法也不打算對財政部門所做的決策過程進行評論。

What we can tell you is that, we did submit what we felt like was a very competitive bid with our full understanding of this program, like I said, for a long period of time and the complexities that come with it.

我們可以告訴您的是，我們確實提交了我們認為非常有競爭力的投標，並且我們對這個計劃有充分的了解，正如我所說的，在很長一段時間內以及隨之而來的複雜性。

So we're very proud of how we've managed this all of these years.

因此，我們對這些年來我們的管理方式感到非常自豪。

And we felt very good about what we submitted as being the right thing for both parties and including the consumers.

我們對我們提交的內容感到非常滿意，認為這對雙方（包括消費者）都是正確的。

And at the end of the day, the decision processes is sort of left up for the fiscal service and not one that we're going to able to comment on.

歸根結底，決策過程是留給財政服務部門的，我們無法對此發表評論。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Bernard Von Gizycki, Deutsche Bank.

伯納德·馮·吉茲基，德意志銀行。

Morning, Bernard.

早安，伯納德。

Hey, guys.

大家好。

Good morning.

早安.

Could you still see interest rate sensitivity analysis on page 9 of the deck, you're liability sensitive in the forward curve assumptions have changed since 1Q and wanted color on your underlying assumption Just how we kind of think about it in the forward?

您是否仍然可以在幻燈片第9 頁上看到利率敏感性分析，您對遠期曲線假設的責任敏感，自第一季以來已經發生了變化，並且希望對您的基本假設進行顏色說明，我們在遠期中如何看待它？

And then just -- I know you've kind of outlined about $100 million benefits from left drags and swaps in 2025, and wondering if there are any updates there.

然後，我知道您已經概述了 2025 年左拖和掉期帶來的約 1 億美元的收益，並想知道是否有任何更新。

Good morning, Bernard.

早安，伯納德。

It's Jim.

是吉姆。

Yes, we are modestly liability sensitive.

是的，我們對責任有一定的敏感度。

That liability sensitivity has increased slightly from the last quarter.

責任敏感度較上季略有上升。

I do think of this is largely interest neutral but the liability sensitivity is growing just a little bit, which I think is a great position to be in at this point in the cycle.

我確實認為這在很大程度上是利益中性的，但責任敏感度略有增長，我認為在周期的這一點上這是一個很好的位置。

Obviously, the rate cuts that occur according to the curve in 2024 will be more back ended.

顯然，2024年按照曲線進行的降息將更加靠後。

So while it is a little bit of a lift for the 2024 projection, it's not a huge lift, that's really going to be more of a 2025 play.

因此，雖然這對 2024 年的預測來說有一點提升，但並不是一個巨大的提升，這實際上更像是 2025 年的遊戲。

We did assume the June 30th curve in the outlook, so frankly, if we had updated that curve after the CPR report came out, I really wouldn't move the overall outlook materially.

我們確實假設了 6 月 30 日的展望曲線，所以坦白說，如果我們在 CPR 報告發布後更新了該曲線，我真的不會對整體前景做出重大調整。

Again, that's because so many of these cuts are occurring late in the year.

同樣，這是因為許多削減都發生在今年稍後。

Regarding of the maturing swaps and securities, I mean, we do have a slide in the appendix on slide 23 that outlines the maturing swaps and securities.

關於到期掉期和證券，我的意思是，我們在投影片 23 的附錄中確實有一張投影片，概述了到期掉期和證券。

I have talked in the past about the fact that we expect to get about $100 million uplift from those maturities in 2025.

我過去曾談到過這樣一個事實，即我們預計 2025 年這些到期日將帶來約 1 億美元的收益。

Now that's a very simple calculation assuming rates were to stay constant.

假設利率保持不變，這是一個非常簡單的計算。

If rates were to move -- Number one, it depends when rates move, we may take some of that benefit in 2024.

如果利率發生變化——第一，這取決於利率何時變化，我們可能會在 2024 年獲得一些好處。

So obviously, that will reduce the lift in '25 but in an absolute sense, you'd still be getting it.

很明顯，這會減少 25 年的升力，但從絕對意義上講，你仍然會得到它。

In all that $100 million also assumes these maturities and rate movements occur in a vacuum.

總之，這 1 億美元也假設這些期限和利率變動是在真空中發生的。

And as we know, nothing occurs in a vacuum.

眾所周知，真空中不會發生任何事情。

If rates do down to other parts of the balance sheet are going to be impacted, including all the swaps -- the swaps that are currently on the books that are not maturing, there was certainly benefit.

如果利率下降到資產負債表的其他部分，包括所有掉期——目前帳面上尚未到期的掉期，肯定會有好處。

So you have the $100 million of maturing swaps and securities in a vacuum.

因此，您在真空中擁有 1 億美元的到期掉期和證券。

But all these other factors get rolled into what amounts to us modest liability sensitivity.

但所有這些其他因素都會影響到我們適度的責任敏感度。

And I would just say that if the balance sheet and rates perform as expected, we would probably get a little less than $100 million for those maturing swaps and securities, but you would likely make that up with our modest liability sensitivity.

我只想說，如果資產負債表和利率按預期運行，我們可能會從那些到期的掉期和證券中獲得略低於1 億美元的收益，但您可能會用我們適度的負債敏感性來彌補這一點。

So you really get it one way or the other, assuming the balance sheet responds as we model it.

因此，假設資產負債表在我們建模時做出回應，您實際上會以一種或另一種方式獲得它。

But of course, we'll wait and see how things actually play out.

但當然，我們會拭目以待，看看事情實際上會如何發展。

But I think big picture, we feel pretty good about that number.

但我認為從大局來看，我們對這個數字感覺很好。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then just maybe following up on the noninterest-bearing deposits, I think it was mentioned, obviously, this continues typical pressure, but you know, the narrative changed maybe a bit recently and just wanted to get your sense on, would you expect like how close to continue would be migration?

然後也許是跟進無息存款，我認為有人提到，顯然，這持續了典型的壓力，但你知道，敘述最近可能有點改變，只是想讓你明白，你會期望像這樣嗎？還有多遠？

Would it potentially be slowing once, you know, three four cuts kind of occur, because obviously the rate differential is high.

一旦發生三到四次降息，它是否可能會放緩，因為顯然利率差異很大。

And even if we get three four cuts, it'll still remain relatively higher than that has been over the past several years.

即使我們進行了三到四次削減，它仍然會比過去幾年保持相對較高的水平。

So just wanted to get some thoughts on how you think that could migrate.

所以只是想了解一下您認為如何遷移的一些想法。

Sure, Bernard.

當然，伯納德。

We have been saying that as long as rates stay higher for longer, we do expect to see some modest pressure on noninterest-bearing deposits.

我們一直在說，只要利率在較長時間內保持在較高水平，我們確實預計無息存款將面臨一些適度的壓力。

I think that's natural with rates being at this level.

我認為在這個水平上這是很自然的。

I'll reinforce that we are at the apex of the cycle at this point.

我要強調的是，目前我們正處於週期的頂峰。

So this is probably where you're seeing this maximum pressure and it's a little uncomfortable, but we do expect it to turn as rates move downwards in the latter part of the year.

因此，這可能是您看到最大壓力的地方，並且有點不舒服，但我們確實預計，隨著今年下半年利率的下降，這種情況會發生轉變。

In terms of the overall outlook, you see that our average deposits in Q2 were about $25.5 billion.

從整體前景來看，我們第二季的平均存款約為 255 億美元。

We do think Q3 is likely to be slightly more than $1 billion lower than that.

我們確實認為第三季的營收可能會比這個數字略低 10 億美元以上。

So that's just slightly below where we ended up on June 30th, and we think that's the low point.

因此，這略低於我們 6 月 30 日的最終結果，我們認為這是最低點。

We do see noninterest-bearing deposits for both seasonal reasons as well as rates moving down.

我們確實看到無息存款由於季節性原因以及利率下降。

We actually see a slight increase then in Q4, and we would expect to see those continue to increase as we move through 2025.

實際上，我們在第四季度看到了輕微的增長，我們預計隨著 2025 年的到來，這一數字將繼續增長。

So we absolutely seem to be at the apex of the cycle with maximum pressure on noninterest-bearing deposits.

因此，我們絕對似乎正處於週期的頂峰，無息存款面臨最大壓力。

But we do see that turning later this year.

但我們確實看到這種情況在今年稍後出現轉變。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Thanks, Bernard.

謝謝，伯納德。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行。

Good morning, Mike.

早上好，麥克。

Hi.

你好。

So you said you have industry-leading noninterest-bearing deposits to total of 40%.

所以你說你的無利息存款佔業界領先，達到 40%。

I think that's about double peer average, but there that might be going lower.

我認為這大約是同業平均值的兩倍，但可能會更低。

Just remind us, why is that so far ahead of peer and what's in the

請提醒我們，為什麼它遠遠領先於同行以及其中的內容

[rain]?

[雨]？

What's been the low point of that over the last few decades?

過去幾十年來的最低點是什麼？

And what's been the high point and where do you think that settles out?

最高點是什麼？

Good morning, Mike.

早上好，麥克。

It's Jim.

是吉姆。

Yeah, we are very proud of that ratio.

是的，我們對這個比例感到非常自豪。

I would point to the fact that we have been very focused really for the last decade plus on payments and treasury management services.

我想指出的事實是，在過去的十年裡，我們一直非常關注支付和財務管理服務。

And we believe that as a huge driver and something that really differentiates us, I would put that as the largest factor.

我們相信，作為一個巨大的驅動力和真正使我們與眾不同的東西，我會將其視為最大的因素。

Certainly, our commercial orientation helps a little bit because we have noninterest-bearing deposits.

當然，我們的商業導向有一點幫助，因為我們有無利息存款。

But of course, we do offer a bit of an ECA or ECR on that, which is somewhat of a pseudo interest rate, but it's really part of our business model.

當然，我們確實提供了一些 ECA 或 ECR，這有點偽利率，但這確實是我們商業模式的一部分。

We absolutely emphasize noninterest-bearing deposits when we extend credit, we expect to get the deposit, we expect to get the treasury management services and those noninterest-bearing deposits tend to accompany those services.

當我們提供信貸時，我們絕對強調無利息存款，我們期望獲得存款，我們期望獲得資金管理服務，而這些無利息存款往往伴隨著這些服務。

Now where we've been in the past?

現在我們過去去過哪裡？

We've been much lower than that in the past before some of the treasury management initiatives had ramped up.

在一些財務管理舉措加強之前，我們的水平比過去要低得多。

I would also say that in the past we had a very high loan to deposit ratio to go back to pre-financial crisis as many banks did throughout the industry.

我還要說的是，過去我們的存貸比非常高，可以回到金融危機前的水平，就像整個產業的許多銀行所做的那樣。

And so as a result, we were offering much higher interest rates, which created a little bit more migration.

因此，我們提供了更高的利率，這導致了更多的移民。

We don't think we're going to lean on brokered deposits anywhere close to that.

我們認為我們不會依賴經紀存款來接近這一點。

As we did in the past, we expect our loan to deposit ratio to stay maintained but I would say in essence, it's our business model, that's what we emphasize as we go out and solicit new business.

正如我們過去所做的那樣，我們預計貸存比將保持不變，但我想說，本質上，這是我們的商業模式，這就是我們走出去並尋求新業務時所強調的。

And just a follow-up.

只是後續行動。

The competitive environment seems as tough as it's ever been for regional banks with a lot more banks expanding nationally.

對於區域性銀行來說，競爭環境似乎一如既往地嚴峻，越來越多的銀行在全國擴張。

How do you see that competitive environment as it relates to the deposits and your deposit guide and your loan guide, is this cyclical?

您如何看待與存款、存款指南和貸款指南相關的競爭環境，這是週期性的嗎？

How much of this might be structural?

其中有多少可能是結構性的？

And at what point would you consider buying other banks or combining with other banks given the change in this strategic environment?

鑑於策略環境的變化，您什麼時候會考慮收購其他銀行或與其他銀行合併？

Mike, this is Peter.

麥克，這是彼得。

I'll comment first and I'll let Curt maybe comment on the strategic part of it.

我會先發表評論，然後我會讓柯特評論其中的策略部分。

But I think from a competitive standpoint, we actually feel that's where the diversity of our model is just terribly compelling.

但我認為從競爭的角度來看，我們實際上覺得這就是我們模型的多樣性非常引人注目的地方。

A number of regional banks are expanding nationally.

許多地區性銀行正在全國擴張。

We've been national for a long time.

我們國家已經有很長一段時間了。

We've been in California for a long time in Texas, Michigan, we're expanding in the Southeast, but I think our national presence has been very helpful when it comes to competitiveness on deposits.

我們在加州、德州、密西根州已經存在很長時間了，我們正在東南部擴張，但我認為我們的全國業務在存款競爭力方面非常有幫助。

So what you're trying to raise deposit wise in Michigan versus California versus Texas gives us lots of options.

因此，您在密西根州、加利福尼亞州和德克薩斯州試圖籌集存款的方式給了我們很多選擇。

We also have a number of businesses that really are national businesses like our TLS business or Financial Services division, where we're able to attract customers and deposits in different ways that don't necessarily tie us to, let's say, CD rates in the small part of Texas, for example.

我們還有許多真正屬於全國性的業務，例如我們的 TLS 業務或金融服務部門，我們能夠以不同的方式吸引客戶和存款，而這些方式不一定將我們與 CD 利率聯繫起來。斯州的一小部分地區。

We've got a lot of handles that we're able to pull.

我們有很多可以拉動的把手。

So I totally agree with you.

所以我完全同意你的觀點。

It's about as competitive as we've seen it in a long time, not just on deposits, really on loans and pricing and structure across the country right now, it's picked up a lot in the last quarter, but I think that again, the diversity of our model as we've tried to continue to communicate is just terribly compelling, and it gives us a lot of advantages in competing with regional banks, community banks and the larger banks.

它的競爭力與我們長期以來所看到的一樣，不僅僅是存款方面，實際上是現在全國範圍內的貸款、定價和結構，它在上個季度回升了很多，但我再次認為，我們試圖繼續溝通的模式的多樣性非常引人注目，它為我們在與區域銀行、社區銀行和大型銀行的競爭中提供了許多優勢。

And so Curt, I might flip to you.

那麼，柯特，我可能會轉向你。

Yeah, Mike, thank you for the question.

是的，麥克，謝謝你的提問。

And on the strategic side, we have been a very patient acquirer, really have done one acquisition in the last 20 years.

在策略方面，我們一直是一位非常有耐心的收購方，在過去 20 年確實完成了一次收購。

Have continued to lean into our organic growth model.

繼續傾向於我們的有機成長模式。

And the last couple of years, we've seen nice growth on the asset side from the lending perspective and just expansion of our customer base.

在過去的幾年裡，從貸款的角度來看，我們看到資產方面的良好成長以及我們客戶群的擴大。

And we think we continue to have really good opportunities to grow in all the markets that we operate in, as well as the markets that we've expanded into more recently.

我們認為，我們在我們經營的所有市場以及我們最近擴展到的市場中繼續擁有真正的發展機會。

We'll have to wait and see how the environment unfolds.

我們必須等待，看看環境如何發展。

Thus far, it's been an environment with not a lot of M&A occurring because of the lot of uncertainty around regulation, economy, et cetera.

到目前為止，由於監管、經濟等方面存在著許多不確定性，目前的環境還沒有發生大量併購。

But certainly, something made strategic cultural sense for us in -- was a good fit, we would take a look at it in one of our primary geographies.

但當然，對我們來說具有戰略文化意義的東西非常適合，我們會在我們的主要地理位置之一中看到它。

But again, that would not be our primary focus.

但同樣，這不是我們的主要關注點。

Our primary focus continues to be on organic growth, and we think we have really good opportunities there.

我們的主要關注點仍然是有機成長，我們認為這方面我們有很好的機會。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Thank you, Mike.

謝謝你，麥克。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Manan, good morning.

馬南，早安。

Hi, good morning.

早安.

Apologies if I missed this in your prior remarks, but can you comment on your conversations with customers on, when loan demand can really start to come back?

如果我在您之前的評論中錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但是您能否評論一下您與客戶的對話，即貸款需求何時才能真正開始回升？

I think pipelines are pretty robust, but across the industry, loan demand has been weak.

我認為通路相當強勁，但整個產業的貸款需求一直疲軟。

Is it lower rates that are going to bring back that demand?

較低的利率是否會恢復這種需求？

Is it some of the uncertainty with the elections, et cetera, going away.

選舉等方面的一些不確定性是否正在消失？

Can you just talk about what your conversations with customers have been?

能簡單談談您與客戶的對話嗎？

Manan, it's Peter.

馬南，是彼得。

I guess the answer to your question is probably a little bit of all the above.

我想你的問題的答案可能是以上所有內容的一部分。

I think in our surveys with customers, we get the sense that the number one driver of loan demand impact right now is interest rates.

我認為，在我們對客戶的調查中，我們感覺到，目前影響貸款需求的第一大驅動因素是利率。

And we believe that to the extent that we start to see some reduction in rates that would impact loan demand or lead to hopefully some more loan demand.

我們相信，在某種程度上，我們開始看到利率下降，這將影響貸款需求或有望導致更多的貸款需求。

And then I would acknowledge and I believe that when you talk to customers, there's just sort of -- I call it a wait and see a little bit as to what -- how the year is going to unfold when it comes to, as Curt said, the regulatory environment get to the elections and I just I feel like historically that's a theme I've heard during presidential election years for a long time that most of your owner-managed businesses kind of want to wait and see what things are going to look like after November and then they start to make decisions.

然後我會承認，我相信，當你與客戶交談時，我稱之為等待，看看這一年將如何展開，正如科特那樣說，監管環境涉及選舉，我只是覺得從歷史上看，這是我在總統選舉年裡聽到的一個主題很長一段時間，大多數業主管理的企業都想等待，看看事情會發生什麼看起來像是十一月之後，然後他們就開始做出決定。

So to your point, I know a number of banks have been talking about this.

就你的觀點而言，我知道許多銀行一直在談論這個問題。

We feel like we've got a good outlook for the second half of the year.

我們認為下半年的前景良好。

We're still showing positive point-to-point loan growth for 2024 overall.

2024 年整體而言，我們仍顯示出點對點貸款的正面成長。

But I think probably real demand doesn't pick up until you start to see interest rates come down and we get through the election.

但我認為，直到你開始看到利率下降並且我們完成了選舉，真正的需求可能才會回升。

Got it.

知道了。

And maybe on the credit side, I know nothing notable to call out this quarter.

也許在信用方面，我不知道本季沒有什麼值得注意的事情。

Criticized assets moved lower, but the investor conversation has pivoted to some concerns around credit on the C&I side as opposed to CRE, in anything specific you're seeing there, anything you're hearing from borrowers, and think if as growth starts to slow in the economy, how do you think that impacts the credit of the portfolio overall?

受到批評的資產走低，但投資者的談話已轉向對工商業信貸方面的一些擔憂，而不是商業地產方面，在你看到的任何具體內容中，從借款人那裡聽到的任何具體內容中，並思考成長是否開始放緩在經濟中，您認為這如何影響投資組合的整體信用？

Manan, it's Melinda.

馬南，我是梅琳達。

Yeah, we obviously we posted a pretty nice quarter.

是的，我們顯然發布了一個相當不錯的季度。

And honestly, in the C&I book was really where we saw the improvement, it was pretty broad-based across a number of different industries that are sort of embedded in core middle market.

老實說，在 C&I 書中我們確實看到了改進，它在許多不同的行業中都有相當廣泛的基礎，這些行業有點嵌入核心中間市場。

So at this point, I'm not seeing, we're not seeing any trends in any one particular segment.

所以目前，我沒有看到，我們沒有看到任何特定細分市場的任何趨勢。

Now having said that, customers that are exposed to the consumer, so B2C type companies, service type companies are a little bit more challenged and probably going to be a little bit slower to show some improvement if they're in that non-pass category.

話雖如此，客戶是面向消費者的，所以 B2C 類型的公司、服務類型的公司面臨的挑戰更大一些，如果他們屬於非通過類別，那麼他們可能會更慢地表現出一些改進。

But we feel really good about C&I, and quite frankly, they have navigated this high-rate environment by quite frankly, managing cash flow really tightly.

但我們對 C&I 感覺非常好，坦白說，他們透過非常嚴格地管理現金流來應對這種高利率環境。

Honestly, utilization is low.

老實說，利用率很低。

That's probably where some of the deposits have gone, quite frankly, because they want to utilize cash in the most efficient way, and that is to pay down high cost debt.

坦白說，這可能是一些存款的去向，因為他們希望以最有效的方式利用現金，那就是償還高成本債務。

So I feel pretty good about the C&I portfolio.

所以我對 C&I 投資組合感覺很好。

That does not mean that we're not going to continue to see some manageable level of migration.

這並不意味著我們不會繼續看到某種可管理層級的遷移。

And there could be some idiosyncratic events that impact a particular customer.

並且可能會發生一些影響特定客戶的特殊事件。

Commercial real estate, obviously in a lot of focus that our portfolio continues to perform quite well.

商業房地產，顯然是我們投資組合的重點關注對象，繼續表現良好。

It was very stable this quarter.

本季非常穩定。

We continue to experience no delinquencies and no losses in our senior housing portfolio, which was with stress because of rates.

我們的高級住房投資組合繼續沒有出現拖欠和損失，該投資組合因利率而面臨壓力。

But also just the environment for housing coming out of COVID is very elevated from a non-pass credit perspective but is very stable at this point.

但從非合格信貸的角度來看，新冠疫情帶來的住房環境也非常好，但目前非常穩定。

So not seeing any major cracks till as long as the economy continues to sort of chug along at that soft landing strategy, I think we'll be okay.

因此，只要經濟繼續按照軟著陸策略穩定前進，就不會出現任何重大問題，我認為我們會沒事的。

We're well reserved if there is any issues that arise.

如果出現任何問題，我們會保留意見。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Manan.

謝謝你，馬南。

Samuel Varga, UBS.

塞繆爾·瓦爾加，瑞銀集團。

Good morning, Sam.

早上好，山姆。

Good morning.

早安.

Just wanted to go back to the loan demand and loan growth commentary a little bit.

只是想稍微回顧一下貸款需求和貸款成長評論。

So I'm trying to square what you said about how November sort of key catalyst here.

所以我試圖糾正你所說的 11 月如何成為這裡的關鍵催化劑。

And at the same time, obviously guide sort of assumes that second half, there is a ramp-up in loan demand.

同時，顯然指南認為下半年貸款需求將會增加。

So could you just help us understand, I guess how much of the expected sort of demand pull through this 4Q?

那麼您能否幫助我們了解一下，我猜第四季的預期需求有多少？

Or is there something in the pipeline that you already see that makes you comfortable that we could see something happen in the third quarter as well?

或者您已經看到正在醞釀的某些事情讓您感到放心，我們也可以在第三季看到一些事情發生？

Yeah, Sam, I think I would still say though, that probably the number one factor is interest rates.

是的，薩姆，我想我仍然會說，第一個因素可能是利率。

And I think that November would be the secondary factor to that.

我認為十一月將是次要因素。

And I guess I would just say that as we see our pipelines as we sit right now, that's kind of where we're coming up with this 2% point-to-point loan growth.

我想我只想說，當我們看到我們現在的管道時，這就是我們提出 2% 點對點貸款成長的地方。

We had a great quarter of $1 billion in point-to-point loan growth.

我們的點對點貸款增加了 10 億美元。

And so what we see for the rest of the year is that, that should be able to continue.

因此，我們在今年剩餘時間看到的是，這種情況應該可以繼續下去。

And we're encouraged by what we see.

我們對所看到的感到鼓舞。

And I would tell you it's pretty broad-based across our businesses, that growth -- last year, we had a number of businesses that we were sort of rationalizing, if you will, getting through everything that occurred in 2023.

我想告訴你，這種成長在我們的業務中具有相當廣泛的基礎，去年，我們對許多業務進行了合理化，如果你願意的話，經歷 2023 年發生的一切。

And much of that is now picking back up.

其中大部分現在正在恢復。

And I think as we get into the second half of the year, the realization of that pipeline growth will start to be there.

我認為，當我們進入今年下半年時，管道成長將開始實現。

But I don't think it's going to really really pick up, as I said, until we do start to see some interest rates come down.

但正如我所說，在我們確實開始看到一些利率下降之前，我認為經濟不會真正回升。

So as we sit right now, our managers' forecast, we feel really good about how the second half of the year looks on the outlook that we're showing.

因此，根據我們經理的預測，我們現在對下半年的前景感到非常滿意。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks for that color.

謝謝那個顏色。

And just my follow-up is around the noninterest-bearing deposits and maybe a bit more looking into 2025.

我的後續行動是圍繞無息存款，也許更多地關注 2025 年。

I just wanted to get a better sense for what need to happen in your mind to actually see meaningful dollar balances move into the bank.

我只是想更好地了解您的想法中需要發生什麼才能真正看到有意義的美元餘額進入銀行。

I'm trying to get a better sense for -- is it just simply rate cuts or are there some increased leverage components that we would need to see before the dollars go back into these accounts?

我試著更好地理解——這只是簡單的降息，還是在美元回到這些帳戶之前我們需要看到一些槓桿增加的因素？

Good morning, Sam.

早上好，山姆。

It's Jim.

是吉姆。

Of course, we're not offering any specific 2025 guidance at this time, but I would say, it's really a function of three things.

當然，我們目前不會提供任何具體的 2025 年指導，但我想說，這實際上是三件事的函數。

One, the rate environment.

一、資費環境。

We typically do see noninterest-bearing deposits grow, all things equal as rates started to come down.

我們通常會看到無息存款成長，而在所有條件相同的情況下，利率開始下降。

So that's certainly a factor.

所以這肯定是一個因素。

Business activity -- again, going back to answering Mike Mayo's question, noninterest-bearing deposits are certainly a point of emphasis for us.

商業活動－再次回到回答麥克梅奧的問題，無息存款無疑是我們的重點。

And then just overall economic growth, as GDP growth nominally, and it does look like we're going to have some decent nominal growth in 2025.

然後是整體經濟成長，即名目 GDP 成長，看起來我們確實會在 2025 年實現一些不錯的名目成長。

You typically expect money supply, working capital levels within middle market businesses to grow proportionately with that.

您通常預期中間市場企業的貨幣供應量、營運資本水準將隨之成比例成長。

So we do think a number of factors are pointing the right direction for noninterest-bearing deposits to start growing again, inflect later this year and then start growing in 2025.

因此，我們確實認為，許多因素正在為無息存款再次開始成長、在今年稍後出現拐點、然後在 2025 年開始成長指明正確的方向。

So we feel like again, we're going -- right now are somewhat in the apex of that cycle, but we see some real strong tailwinds for us and any really commercial bank as we move through 2025.

因此，我們再次感覺，我們現在正處於該週期的頂峰，但隨著我們進入 2025 年，我們和任何真正的商業銀行都會看到一些真正強大的推動力。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Thank you, Sam.

謝謝你，山姆。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節已經結束。

I'd like to turn the floor back over to Curt for any further closing.

我想把發言權交還給柯特，以便進一步結束。

Well, as always, thank you for your interest in Comerica, and we hope that you have a good day.

好吧，一如既往，感謝您對聯信的興趣，我們希望您度過愉快的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That does conclude today's teleconference.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.

此時您可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。

We thank you for your participation today.

我們感謝您今天的參與。