Comerica Inc (CMA) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Comerica First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Kelly Gage, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加 Comerica 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係總監凱利·蓋奇(Kelly Gage)。謝謝。請繼續。

Thanks, Donna. Good morning, and welcome to Comerica's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman and CEO, Curt Farmer; Chief Financial Officer, Jim Herzog; Chief Credit Officer, Melinda Chausse; and Chief Banking Officer, Peter Sefzik.

謝謝，唐娜。早上好，歡迎參加 Comerica 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。參加本次電話會議的包括我們的總裁、董事長兼執行長 Curt Farmer；財務長吉姆·赫爾佐格；首席信貸官 Melinda Chausse；和首席銀行官 Peter Sefzik。

During this presentation, we will be referring to slides, which will provide additional details. The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC's website as well as in the Investor Relations section of our website, comerica.com.

在本次簡報中，我們將參考幻燈片，其中將提供更多詳細資訊。簡報投影片和我們的新聞稿可在 SEC 網站以及我們網站 comerica.com 的投資者關係部分取得。

This conference call contains forward-looking statements. In that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially from expectations. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。在這方面，您應該注意可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的風險和不確定性。前瞻性陳述僅代表截至本簡報發布之日的情況，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Please refer to the safe harbor statement in today's earnings presentation on Slide 2, which is incorporated into this call as well as our SEC filings for factors that can cause actual results to differ. Also, this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures. And in that regard, I direct you to the reconciliation of these measures in the earnings materials that are available on our website, comerica.com.

請參閱今天投影片 2 上的收益簡報中的安全港聲明，該聲明已納入本次電話會議以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中，以了解可能導致實際結果不同的因素。此外，本次電話會議也將參考非公認會計準則衡量標準。在這方面，我將指導您在我們的網站 comerica.com 上提供的收益資料中對這些措施進行核對。

Now I'll turn the call over to Curt, who will begin on Slide 3.

現在我將把電話轉給 Curt，他將從幻燈片 3 開始。

Thank you, Kelly, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call. Today, we reported first quarter earnings of $138 million or $0.98 per share. Although loan demand remained muted, we continue to see improvement in customer sentiment, translating into increased pipelines and signaling opportunities for growth.

謝謝你，凱利，大家早安。感謝您加入我們的通話。今天，我們報告第一季收益為 1.38 億美元，即每股收益 0.98 美元。儘管貸款需求依然低迷，但我們繼續看到客戶信心的改善，轉化為貸款管道的增加並預示著成長機會。

Our historically strong deposit franchise demonstrated resilience as deposits outperformed expectations and normal seasonal patterns. These favorable trends enabled continued normalization of our liquidity position as we reduced wholesale funding by over $5 billion throughout the quarter. In fact, over the last 4 quarters, we repaid almost $12 billion in wholesale funding while preserving significant available capacity.

我們歷史上強大的存款業務表現出彈性，因為存款表現優於預期和正常的季節性模式。這些有利的趨勢使我們的流動性狀況持續正常化，整個季度我們減少了超過 50 億美元的批發資金。事實上，在過去 4 個季度中，我們償還了近 120 億美元的批發資金，同時保留了大量的可用產能。

Beyond our financial results, we were incredibly proud of recognition we received for our efforts to prioritize our employees and communities. Greenwich Awards showcased our successful focus on small business, and we see great potential for continued growth in this space.

除了我們的財務表現之外，我們為我們優先考慮員工和社區的努力而獲得的認可感到無比自豪。格林威治獎展示了我們對小型企業的成功關注，我們看到了這一領域持續增長的巨大潛力。

Earlier this month, we hosted an event at our new collaborative workspace in North Texas, and our second large office transformation is underway in Michigan. As a product of our modernization efforts, these business and innovation hubs leverage advanced technology designed to meet the evolving needs of our colleagues and customers through dedicated business centers. Immediate feedback has been affirmingly positive, and we feel this workplace strategy will be key to attracting and retaining talent while offering unique benefits to small businesses and local communities.

本月早些時候，我們在德克薩斯州北部的新協作工作空間舉辦了一場活動，我們的第二次大型辦公室改造正在密西根州進行。作為我們現代化努力的產物，這些業務和創新中心利用先進技術，旨在透過專門的業務中心滿足我們同事和客戶不斷變化的需求。立即獲得的回饋肯定是正面的，我們認為這項工作場所策略將是吸引和留住人才的關鍵，同時為小型企業和當地社區提供獨特的好處。

First quarter financial highlights are on Slide 4. Average loans were impacted by rationalization efforts from 2023, including the exit of Mortgage Banker Finance, which is now substantially complete. Deposits outperformed expectations and, in fact, would have been relatively flat, excluding the deliberate reduction in broker time deposits.

第一季的財務亮點請參閱投影片 4。存款表現超出預期，事實上，如果不包括經紀人定期存款的故意減少，存款表現將相對持平。

Net interest income was impacted by lower loans, slightly higher deposit costs and 1 less day in the quarter, but overall performed better than projected. Credit remained strong as net charge-offs moved even lower this quarter. Both noninterest income and noninterest expenses were impacted by notable items, and we saw a discrete benefit to taxes.

淨利息收入受到貸款減少、存款成本略高以及本季減少 1 天的影響，但整體表現優於預期。由於本季淨沖銷進一步下降，信貸依然強勁。非利息收入和非利息支出都受到顯著項目的影響，並且我們看到了稅收的離散收益。

Prudent capital management and lower loans drove an increase in our estimated CET1 to 11.47% even higher above our 10% strategic target. Stepping back, strong liquidity, credit and capital supports our solid foundation and positions us to prioritize responsible growth in the second half of the year.

審慎的資本管理和較低的貸款推動我們預期的 CET1 成長至 11.47%，甚至高於我們 10% 的策略目標。退一步來說，強勁的流動性、信貸和資本支持了我們堅實的基礎，並使我們能夠在下半年優先考慮負責任的成長。

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim, who will review our financial results in some more detail. Jim?

現在我將把電話轉給吉姆，他將更詳細地審查我們的財務表現。吉姆？

Well, thanks, Curt, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 5. Impacts from intentional balance sheet management efforts in 2023 carried over into the first quarter, and when coupled with soft demand, drove downward pressure on average loan balances. Lower utilization was a trend in both middle market where customers use deposits to repay debt and invest in their business and equity fund services, where we observed continued softness in private equity activity.

好吧，謝謝，柯特，大家早安。轉向投影片 5。2023 年有意識的資產負債表管理工作的影響延續到第一季度，加上需求疲軟，推動了平均貸款餘額的下行壓力。較低的利用率是中間市場的一個趨勢，客戶使用存款來償還債務並投資於其業務和股權基金服務，我們觀察到私募股權活動持續疲軟。

Conversely, commercial real estate utilization continued to trend higher as we funded multifamily and industrial construction projects while managing commitments lower. As we look month-to-month throughout the quarter, we saw balances decreased only modestly and a steadily increasing pipeline, which together support our expectation for growth.

相反，由於我們為多戶住宅和工業建設項目提供資金，同時管理承諾較低，商業房地產利用率持續呈上升趨勢。當我們逐月觀察整個季度時，我們看到餘額僅小幅下降，而通路穩定增加，這共同支持了我們的成長預期。

Slide 6 highlights the stability of our deposit base. Average deposit balances declined $700 million, but almost $600 million was attributed to lowering brokered time deposits. Otherwise, declines in technology and life sciences, equity fund services and commercial real estate were largely offset by increases in general middle market, entertainment and retail. In fact, retail balances are nearing pre-March 2023 levels with growth in both small business and consumer.

投影片 6 強調了我們存款基礎的穩定性。平均存款餘額下降了 7 億美元，但近 6 億美元歸因於經紀定期存款的減少。除此之外，科技和生命科學、股票基金服務和商業房地產的下降在很大程度上被一般中間市場、娛樂和零售的成長所抵消。事實上，隨著小型企業和消費者的成長，零售餘額已接近 2023 年 3 月前的水準。

Our mix of noninterest-bearing balances remained a competitive advantage, averaging 40% for the quarter as both interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing deposits exceeded expectations. As anticipated, elevated rates continued to drive deposit pricing higher to 328 basis points and a cumulative beta of 62%.

我們的無息餘額組合仍具有競爭優勢，本季平均為 40%，因為有息存款和無息存款均超出預期。如預期的那樣，利率上升繼續推動存款定價上漲至 328 個基點，累積貝塔值為 62%。

However, the pace of increase continued to flatten as it has for the past 4 quarters. Our deposit profile remains a competitive strength, and we were encouraged by this quarter's results.

然而，與過去四個季度一樣，成長速度持續放緩。我們的存款狀況仍具有競爭優勢，本季的業績令我們感到鼓舞。

As shown on Slide 7, we normalized our liquidity position. And in this quarter alone, we were able to repay over $5 billion in wholesale funding while retaining significant capacity. Over the last year, our liquidity strategy proved effective as we added liquidity to navigate volatility and then methodically normalized our position as the market stabilized.

如投影片 7 所示，我們使流動性部位正常化。光是本季度，我們就能夠償還超過 50 億美元的批發資金，同時保留大量產能。去年，我們的流動性策略被證明是有效的，我們增加了流動性以應對波動，然後隨著市場穩定，有條不紊地使我們的部位正常化。

We were incredibly proud of our $1 billion debt issuance in late January, a record issuance for Comerica. Investor interest was high and the execution was effective, which to us signaled progress towards more normal market activity and interest in our value proposition. At 80%, our loan-to-deposit ratio remained below our 85% medium-term target, positioning us to prioritize high-return loan growth going forward.

我們對 1 月底發行的 10 億美元債券感到無比自豪，這創下了聯信銀行的發行記錄。投資者的興趣很高，執行也很有效，這對我們來說標誌著市場活動更加正常的進展以及對我們價值主張的興趣。我們的貸存比率為 80%，仍低於 85% 的中期目標，這使我們能夠優先考慮未來的高回報貸款成長。

Period-end balances in our securities portfolio on Slide 8 decline with continued paydowns and maturities in addition to a $268 million negative mark-to-market adjustment from a higher forward curve. We expect continued decline in this portfolio over the coming quarters.

投影片 8 中我們的證券投資組合的期末餘額隨著持續的還款和到期而下降，此外，由於遠期曲線較高，按市值計價的調整為 2.68 億美元。我們預計該投資組合在未來幾季將繼續下降。

Turning to Slide 9. Net interest income decreased $36 million to $548 million driven by lower loan balances and higher deposit pricing, partially offset by Fed deposits and lower wholesale funding. While lower noninterest-bearing balances also contributed to the quarter-over-quarter decrease, deposits overall outperformed expectations with favorable deposit trends, lower FHLB advances, a moderating deposit beta and a $3 million noncash accretion, net interest income exceeded guidance.

轉向投影片 9。雖然無利息餘額下降也導致環比下降，但存款整體表現優於預期，存款趨勢良好、FHLB 預付款下降、存款貝塔係數放緩以及 300 萬美元的非現金增值，淨利息收入超出預期。

As shown on Slide 10, successful execution of our interest rate strategy and the composition of our balance sheet positions us favorably for a gradual 100 basis points or 50 basis points on average decline in interest rates. By strategically managing our swap and securities portfolio, while considering balance sheet dynamics, we intend to maintain our insulated position over time.

如投影片 10 所示，我們的利率策略的成功執行和資產負債表的組成使我們有利於利率逐步平均下降 100 個基點或 50 個基點。透過策略性地管理我們的掉期和證券投資組合，同時考慮資產負債表的動態，我們打算隨著時間的推移保持我們的絕緣頭寸。

As a reminder, BSBY cessation does not impact the ongoing cash flow associated with the swap notionals listed on the slide. While we took noncash losses in the fourth and first quarters, we will accrete them back with the majority coming back into net interest income in 2025 and 2026. Now that we have fully redesignated the remaining impact swaps, we have included quarterly BSBY-related net interest income projections in the appendix for your modeling.

提醒一下，BSBY 的終止不會影響與投影片上列出的掉期概念相關的持續現金流。雖然我們在第四季度和第一季遭受了非現金損失，但我們將把這些損失增加回來，其中大部分將在2025 年和2026 年重新轉化為淨利息收入。的影響掉期，我們已將季度BSBY 相關淨利息收入納入其中。

Moving to Slide 11. We expect the attrition of our swap and securities portfolio to create positive earnings momentum. Scheduled swap maturities outpaced the remaining forward starting swaps in 2024. By the end of 2025, we expect lower overall notional balances and a 14 basis point increase in swap yields creating a tailwind for net interest income.

轉到投影片 11。 2024 年預定互換到期日超過了剩餘的遠期起始互換。 。

Within our securities portfolio, we expect approximately $4 billion in repayments and maturities by the end of 2025. Although some of this may be partially offset by reinvestments in the portfolio, we expect to redeploy that liquidity at substantially higher rates. Altogether, we expect these portfolio trends to benefit our earnings trajectory.

在我們的證券投資組合中，我們預計到2025 年底，償還和到期金額約為40 億美元。流動性。總而言之，我們預期這些投資組合趨勢將有利於我們的獲利軌跡。

Credit quality remained strong as highlighted on Slide 12. Net charge-offs of 10 basis points declined from the fourth quarter, which were already below our normal range. Elevated interest rates continued to pressure customer profitability and debt service ratios, which drove migration in general middle market and senior housing.

正如幻燈片 12 所強調的那樣，信貸品質仍然強勁。利率上升繼續給客戶獲利能力和償債比率帶來壓力，從而推動了一般中型市場和高級住房的遷移。

Our senior housing exposure is limited by design and with a geographically diverse new construction orientation, recourse and potential for favorable macroeconomic and demographic tailwinds, we feel the risk is very manageable. Total portfolio normalization trends resulted in an increase in the allowance for credit losses to 1.43% of total loans.

我們的老年住房風險受到設計的限制，由於新建築定位、資源和有利宏觀經濟和人口順風的潛力以及地理上多樣化的原因，我們認為風險是非常可控的。整體投資組合正常化趨勢導致信貸損失準備金增加至貸款總額的 1.43%。

Nonperforming assets also increased, but still remained well below historical averages. Overall, our trends remained in line with expectations. And while we continue to monitor the portfolio very closely, we believe ongoing migration will remain manageable.

不良資產也有所增加，但仍遠低於歷史平均。整體而言，我們的趨勢仍然符合預期。儘管我們繼續密切監控產品組合，但我們相信正在進行的遷移仍將是可控的。

On Slide 13, first quarter noninterest income of $236 million included a $39 million noncash loss related to the BSBY loan hedges not yet be designated. This compared to a $91 million BSBY impact in the fourth quarter. And since we have now fully redesignated the remaining impacted swaps, we do not expect additional mark-to-market volatility related to BSBY cessation.

在幻燈片 13 中，第一季非利息收入為 2.36 億美元，其中包括與尚未指定的 BSBY 貸款對沖相關的 3,900 萬美元非現金損失。相比之下，BSBY 第四季的影響為 9,100 萬美元。由於我們現在已經完全重新指定了其餘受影響的掉期，因此我們預計不會出現與 BSBY 停止相關的額外按市價波動。

Fiduciary income was impacted by accrual adjustments and trust and accounting changes associated with our Ameriprise transition. Initial feedback on Ameriprise has been positive, and we continue to think this partnership can drive meaningful revenue growth over time.

信託收入受到與 Ameriprise 轉型相關的應計調整以及信託和會計變更的影響。 Ameriprise 的初步回饋是正面的，我們仍然認為這種合作夥伴關係可以隨著時間的推移推動有意義的收入成長。

First quarter capital markets income was seasonally light as higher syndication fees were offset by declines in interest rate and energy derivative products. We had a $5 million miscellaneous item in the first quarter related to a vendor contract, but we would not expect that benefit to repeat.

第一季資本市場收入季節性清淡，因為較高的銀團費用被利率和能源衍生產品的下降所抵消。我們在第一季有一項與供應商合約相關的 500 萬美元雜項，但我們預計這種好處不會重複。

Expenses on Slide 14 included an estimated $16 million additional special FDIC assessment, incremental to the $109 million charge taken in the fourth quarter. Excluding this assessment and deferred compensation, expenses performed in line with expectations for the quarter.

第 14 張投影片上的費用包括估計 1,600 萬美元的額外 FDIC 特別評估，是第四季 1.09 億美元費用的增量。排除此項評估和遞延薪酬，支出符合本季的預期。

Generally, we saw seasonal declines across most expense categories with lower severance and temporary labor offset partially by stock compensation. Further, we saw the benefit of lower pension expense, which will be consistent throughout the year.

一般來說，我們看到大多數費用類別都出現季節性下降，遣散費和臨時工的減少部分被股票薪酬所抵銷。此外，我們還看到了退休金支出降低的好處，這將在全年保持一致。

Expense recalibration actions announced last quarter are underway, and we expect the majority of identified colleague separations and banking center closures to occur in the second quarter. We remain keenly focused on ongoing expense management to support investments and enhance overall earnings.

上季宣布的費用重新調整行動正在進行中，我們預計大多數已確定的同事離職和銀行中心關閉將發生在第二季。我們仍然高度關注持續的費用管理，以支持投資和提高整體收益。

Slide 15 highlights our conservative capital position as our estimated CET1 grew to 11.47%. Although we are below $80 billion in assets, our estimated CET1 adjusting for the AOCI opt-out was already above the required regulatory minimums and buffers.

投影片 15 強調了我們保守的資本狀況，因為我們估計的 CET1 成長至 11.47%。儘管我們的資產低於 800 億美元，但我們對 AOCI 選擇退出的估計 CET1 調整已經高於所需的監管最低限度和緩衝。

Despite higher unrealized AOCI losses due to the rate movement, tangible common equity increased to 6.36%. We expect unrealized losses to burn down over time as securities repay and swaps mature but the rate curve continued to create near-term volatility.

儘管由於利率變動導致未實現 AOCI 損失增加，但有形普通股權益增加至 6.36%。我們預計，隨著證券償還和掉期的成熟，未實現的損失將隨著時間的推移而減少，但利率曲線繼續造成近期波動。

As I mentioned on our last earnings call, we favor a conservative approach to capital management and plan to monitor ongoing AOCI movement and regulations as they evolve.

正如我在上次財報電話會議上提到的，我們傾向於採取保守的資本管理方法，並規劃監控 AOCI 的動態變化和法規的演變。

Our outlook for 2024 is on Slide 16. We project full year average loans to decline 3% largely due to optimization efforts in 2023. Despite soft first quarter demand and the higher rate curve, we still see constructive signs in customer sentiment and pipeline, supporting our projected 4% to 5% point-to-point growth. With average loans expected to be flat to down 1% in the second quarter, we still anticipate broad-based growth in the second half of the year.

我們對2024 年的展望如幻燈片16 所示。到客戶信心和管道方面的建設性跡象，支持我們預計點對點增長為 4% 至 5%。由於第二季平均貸款預計將持平或下降 1%，我們仍預計下半年將廣泛增長。

Full year average deposits are expected to be down 2% to 3% from 2023 or down 1% to 2% point-to-point. This assumes our new lower level of broker time deposits remains flat from March 31 and represents an improved average customer deposit outlook for the year. Excluding brokered time deposits, we expect year-end 2024 deposits to exceed year-end 2023.

預計全年平均存款較 2023 年下降 2% 至 3%，較上季下降 1% 至 2%。這是假設我們新的較低經紀商定期存款水準自 3 月 31 日起保持不變，並代表今年平均客戶存款前景有所改善。不包括經紀定期存款，我們預計 2024 年底存款將超過 2023 年底。

Our year-over-year net interest income outlook down 11% remains unchanged despite movement in the rate curve. Strong deposit performance as well as moderating deposit betas, largely offset the reduction in the number of rate cuts.

儘管利率曲線發生變化，但我們的淨利息收入較去年同期下降 11% 的前景保持不變。強勁的存款表現以及溫和的存款貝塔係數在很大程度上抵消了降息次數的減少。

As a point of clarity, we used the April 10 forward curve to reflect the most recently published CPI number and market consensus reflecting 2 rate cuts in the second half of the year. As I mentioned at a conference last month, movement in the rate curve since 12/31 does push our projected net interest income trough into the second quarter. But as you can see in our guide, we do not expect the quarter-over-quarter decline to be significant.

需要澄清的是，我們使用 4 月 10 日遠期曲線來反映最近公佈的 CPI 數據和反映下半年兩次降息的市場共識。正如我在上個月的一次會議上提到的，自 12 月 31 日以來利率曲線的變動確實將我們預期的淨利息收入低谷推至第二季。但正如您在我們的指南中看到的那樣，我們預計季度將比去年同期下降不會很大。

Credit quality remains strong, and we expect continued migration to be manageable. We forecast 4-year net charge-offs to move into the lower half of our normal 20 to 40 basis point range. We expect noninterest income to grow 1% to 2% on a reported basis, which would be down 1% year-to-year when adjusting for BSBY and Ameriprise as detailed on Slide 39.

信貸品質依然強勁，我們預期持續的移民是可控的。我們預測 4 年期淨沖銷將進入正常 20 至 40 個基點範圍的下半部。我們預計非利息收入將在報告基礎上增加 1% 至 2%，如幻燈片 39 所示，對 BSBY 和 Ameriprise 進行調整後，非利息收入將同比下降 1%。

With the higher forward curve, risk management income is expected to remain strong, and we project growth in most customer-related fee income categories in the second quarter and throughout the year.

隨著遠期曲線較高，風險管理收入預計將保持強勁，我們預計大多數與客戶相關的費用收入類別在第二季和全年都會成長。

Full year noninterest expenses are expected to decline 3% on a reported basis but grow 3% after adjusting for special FDIC assessments, expense recalibration and Ameriprise. As always, this assumes deferred compensation of $0 for the remaining quarters.

根據報告，全年非利息支出預計將下降 3%，但在對 FDIC 特別評估、費用重新調整和 Ameriprise 進行調整後將增加 3%。與往常一樣，這假設剩餘季度的遞延補償為 0 美元。

Projected second quarter expenses should come down from the first quarter due in part to seasonal compensation and we expect to see the benefit of savings related to our recalibration efforts throughout the year.

預計第二季的支出應比第一季有所下降，部分原因是季節性補償，我們預計將看到與全年重新調整工作相關的節省效益。

Continued strategic investment remains a priority and the bar for regulatory compliance and risk management framework continues to rise. So we are working to offset and self-fund these increasing pressures. We saw a discrete tax benefit in the first quarter, by excluding discrete items, we projected 24% tax rate for the full year.

持續的策略投資仍然是優先事項，監管合規和風險管理框架的門檻不斷提高。因此，我們正在努力抵消和自籌資金這些日益增加的壓力。我們在第一季看到了離散的稅收優惠，排除離散項目，我們預計全年稅率為 24%。

Even with projected loan trends, we expect to maintain capital well in excess of our 10% target. We will continue to monitor AOCI volatility and the evolving regulatory environment as we continue to take a conservative approach to share repurchases. Overall, favorable deposit trends put us on a great path to start of the year, and we feel very good about the earnings trajectory of our business.

即使按照預期的貸款趨勢，我們預計資本金仍將遠遠超過我們 10% 的目標。在我們繼續採取保守的股票回購方式的同時，我們將繼續監控 AOCI 的波動性和不斷變化的監管環境。總體而言，有利的存款趨勢使我們在年初走上了良好的道路，我們對我們業務的獲利軌跡感到非常滿意。

Now I'll turn the call back to Curt.

現在我將把電話轉回給柯特。

Thank you, Jim. We understand the heightened industry focus on the timing of rate cuts and what that means for quarterly net interest income, and we think we have a compelling earnings trajectory. However, as we think about the true value in our business, we think it's important to take a step back and reinforce our differentiated value proposition, as shown on Slide 17.

謝謝你，吉姆。我們了解產業對降息時機的高度關注以及這對季度淨利息收入的影響，並且我們認為我們擁有令人信服的獲利軌跡。然而，當我們思考我們業務的真正價值時，我們認為退後一步並強化我們差異化的價值主張非常重要，如幻燈片 17 所示。

As a leading bank for business with strong wealth management and retail capabilities, our senior colleagues deliver value-added expertise to our enviable customer base. Our highly regarded approach to credit coupled with our commitment to diversification mitigates risk of loss and has historically outperformed peers.

作為一家擁有強大財富管理和零售能力的領先商業銀行，我們的資深同事為我們令人羨慕的客戶群提供增值專業知識。我們備受推崇的信貸方法加上我們對多元化的承諾，降低了損失風險，並且歷來表現優於同業。

Customer feedback reinforces our belief that we are the right size to deliver tailored products by adding value to their business and providing a high level of service. Product investment and strategic partnerships, such as Ameriprise that we entered into last year were designed to further enhance our core set of solutions.

客戶回饋強化了我們的信念，即我們的規模適合透過為他們的業務增加價值並提供高水準的服務來提供客製化產品。產品投資和策略合作夥伴關係（例如我們去年建立的 Ameriprise）旨在進一步增強我們的核心解決方案集。

The resilience of our operational deposit base was highlighted this quarter as we outperformed normal seasonal patterns and maintained a favorable deposit mix. We remain committed to managing the company for the long term, which means taking targeted expense actions like those announced last quarter while still prioritizing investments in our future.

我們的營運存款基礎的彈性在本季度得到凸顯，因為我們的表現優於正常的季節性模式並保持了有利的存款組合。我們仍然致力於長期管理公司，這意味著採取像上季度宣布的那樣有針對性的支出行動，同時仍優先考慮對未來的投資。

We have a strong capital base, proven approach to credit and commitment to risk management. We see positive momentum for reasonable growth and enhanced profitability. I appreciate your time this morning, and now we'd be happy to take some questions.

我們擁有雄厚的資本基礎、行之有效的信貸方法以及對風險管理的承諾。我們看到合理成長和獲利能力增強的正面勢頭。感謝您今天早上的寶貴時間，現在我們很樂意回答一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question is coming from Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

About improving profitability and the implied improvement in NII throughout the year. I'm just wondering I want to make sure that after this dip in the second quarter then it seems like we could see quite a sharp increase in second half NII. Just can you help us understand like what that cadence looks like. So if it's down a little bit, is it up and even more up to exit? Or because the implied sequential feels like it could be like 570-ish kind of getting towards the end of the year. And I just want to make sure we understand like how that looks as these deposit pricing and last kind of things move through.

關於全年盈利能力的提高和 NII 的隱含改善。我只是想知道，我想確保在第二季度的下滑之後，我們似乎可以看到下半年 NII 的大幅成長。你能幫助我們理解那種節奏是什麼樣的嗎？那麼，如果下跌了一點，是否會上漲甚至進一步上漲以退出？或者因為隱含的順序感覺就像是接近年底的 570 歲左右。我只是想確保我們了解存款定價和最後一件事的進展。

All right. Ken, it's Jim. Happy to answer that question. Yes, number one, we do see an increasing rate of improvement quarter-to-quarter as we go through the year from second to third and third to fourth, and frankly, I expect that trend to continue even beyond the fourth quarter of this year. We do have a lot of momentum behind us.

好的。肯，是吉姆。很高興回答這個問題。是的，第一，隨著我們從第二季度到第三季度、從第三季度到第四季度，我們確實看到逐季度改善的速度不斷加快，坦白說，我預計這種趨勢甚至會持續到今年第四季之後。我們背後確實有很大的動力。

If I look at some of the big drivers that are driving that momentum, probably at the top of the list would be the maturing swaps and securities. And we did try to outline what that benefit could be on Slide 11, showing those various maturities, and they do pick up momentum as we move through the year and into next year. So I'd probably list that as one of the biggest drivers.

如果我看看推動這一勢頭的一些主要驅動因素，最重要的可能是掉期和證券的成熟。我們確實試圖在投影片 11 上概述這種好處可能是什麼，展示了這些不同的成熟度，隨著我們進入今年和明年，它們確實獲得了動力。所以我可能會將其列為最大的驅動因素之一。

But I would also say loan volume is going to almost be an equally large driver. If you look at the guide that we gave, it implies a pretty significant hockey stick up in the last couple of quarters of the year. And so we'll certainly pick up some income there, probably on a lesser basis.

但我也想說，貸款量幾乎將成為同樣大的推動因素。如果你看一下我們提供的指南，你會發現今年最後幾季的曲棍球比賽非常活躍。因此，我們肯定會在那裡獲得一些收入，但可能會較少。

Obviously, we'll get some more days in the second half of the year and then the liability sensitivity, which will not be as large, but will be a factor will start to kick in, in the second half of the year, too. So it will be a nice smooth trajectory upward, and we do feel really good about that momentum.

顯然，我們將在下半年獲得更多的天數，然後責任敏感度雖然不會那麼大，但也會在下半年開始發揮作用。因此，這將是一個非常平穩的上升軌跡，我們確實對這種勢頭感到非常好。

Great. Okay. And as a follow-up, just on the deposit side, you mentioned that you think deposits will end higher at the end of the year. I think the mix is still important. How do you expect that DDA to total deposit mix to go? I mean, granted, it's all good in the absolute range if it's still all moving up. But just can you help us understand the mix?

偉大的。好的。作為後續行動，就存款方面而言，您提到您認為年底存款將會更高。我認為混合仍然很重要。您預計 DDA 的總存款組合將如何發展？我的意思是，當然，如果它仍然在上漲，那麼在絕對範圍內一切都很好。但你能幫助我們理解這種混合嗎？

Yes, happy to do that. And just to reclarify that will be excluding broker deposits, time brokered deposits since obviously, we don't consider those customer related. Those are down quite a bit even since the end of '23. So that guide was excluding those. But putting that aside, we do expect the mix to stay somewhat consistent right now.

是的，很高興這樣做。只是要澄清一下，這將不包括經紀人存款、定期經紀存款，因為顯然，我們不認為這些客戶相關。即使自 23 年底以來，這些數字也已經下降了很多。所以該指南排除了這些。但拋開這一點，我們確實預期目前的組合會保持一定程度的一致性。

We'll continue to monitor it and is a little bit higher for longer environment, but it's been holding up very good to date. And as we look out into the future, we do expect it to continue to hold up. To the extent it dips below 40%, which we're not projecting at this time, it's more likely to be due to the success with interest-bearing deposits as opposed to any challenge with noninterest bearing. So we think our mix will continue to be peer-leading and a real competitive advantage for us.

我們將繼續監控它，並且在較長的環境下它會稍高一些，但迄今為止它一直保持得很好。當我們展望未來時，我們確實預計它會繼續保持下去。如果它降至 40% 以下（我們目前並未預測），則更可能是由於計息存款的成功，而不是無息存款的任何挑戰。因此，我們認為我們的組合將繼續處於同儕領先地位，並為我們帶來真正的競爭優勢。

The next question is coming from John Pancari of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

Also on the NII expectation, I know you indicated that the curve has essentially pushed the NII trough into the second quarter, but you also mentioned some of the dynamics of an improving trajectory. Can you maybe give us some color if we do not get the forward curve, and we do not get cuts at all in 2024, what does that mean for your NII, not only the timing of the trough, but the broader outlook? And then can you just remind us what Fed cut assumption do you have currently in your expectation?

另外，關於 NII 預期，我知道您表示該曲線基本上已將 NII 低谷推入第二季度，但您也提到了改善軌蹟的一些動態。如果我們沒有得到遠期曲線，而我們在 2024 年根本沒有削減，您能否給我們一些說明，這對您的 NII 意味著什麼，不僅是觸底的時間，而且是更廣泛的前景？那麼您能否提醒我們目前您對聯準會降息的預期是什麼？

Yes. I mean, right now, the expectations we follow the forward curve that came out right after the CPR report. So we're sticking pretty closely to that, which reflects just under 2 cuts in the second half of the year. If we don't get those cuts, I did mention the liability sensitivity. And that's a very slight sensitivity position. We're very close to interest neutral. So I would not want to overplay that.

是的。我的意思是，現在，我們的預期遵循 CPR 報告後立即出現的遠期曲線。因此，我們非常嚴格地遵守這一點，這反映出今年下半年的削減幅度略低於兩次。如果我們沒有得到這些削減，我確實提到了責任敏感度。這是一個非常輕微的敏感位置。我們非常接近利益中立。所以我不想誇大這一點。

I think if we don't get the cuts because we are so close to interest neutral, it's not so much the sensitivity that causes the challenge. But I think what causes the challenge for the whole industry is with flat rates, you still have the potential for depositors to ask for higher pay rates. So I do think probably all banks will see slight increases in pay rates over the course of the year and into next year if rates weren't going to change.

我認為，如果我們因為非常接近利益中立而沒有削減開支，那麼造成挑戰的並不是敏感度。但我認為整個產業面臨的挑戰是統一利率，儲戶仍有可能要求更高的利率。因此，我確實認為，如果利率不發生變化，可能所有銀行在今年和明年都會看到工資率略有上升。

I do expect that to be a slight impact, but those would be the 2 factors. We lose a tiny bit of liability sensitivity, which is more of a minor factor for this year, but you also run the risk of continued rising pay rates as we move through the year also.

我確實預計這會產生輕微影響，但這是兩個因素。我們失去了一點點責任敏感性，這對今年來說只是一個次要因素，但隨著我們今年的進展，你也面臨著工資率持續上漲的風險。

Okay. Great. That helps. And then separately, on the loan growth side, I know you revised your average loan growth guide to down 3%. And you cited some muted demand, but improving pipeline and the expectation of the back half pickup in growth. Can you maybe talk about the confidence in that pick up? Where do you see loan generation strengthening? What anecdotal data supports that expectation? Because clearly, we're seeing industry pressure at this point.

好的。偉大的。這有幫助。另外，在貸款成長方面，我知道你們將平均貸款成長指南下調了 3%。您提到了一些需求疲軟，但通路改善以及下半年成長回升的預期。能談談對這次回升的信心嗎？您認為貸款產生在哪些方面有所加強？哪些軼事數據支持這一預期？因為顯然，我們目前看到了行業壓力。

John, this is Peter. So yes, when you say 3% down, that's the average year-over-year and our outlook now is 4% to 5% point to point for 2024. And I would say, as we did in the comments here, it's pretty broad-based. We've got some give and takes as we go throughout the year across our portfolio.

約翰，這是彼得。所以，是的，當你說下降3% 時，這是同比平均水平，我們現在的展望是2024 年逐點下降4% 到5%。是相當廣泛的-基於。在我們全年的投資組合中，我們有一些讓步和索取。

I think in general, though, middle market is kind of where we feel probably the best about that. We did a lot of rationalization in '23 coming into '24 that I think is sort of affected us for the first quarter, and will a little bit in the second, but we're pretty much past that rationalization. And I think from here on, we feel good about being able to project the 4% to 5% point to point.

不過，我認為總的來說，中間市場是我們感覺最好的地方。我們在 23 年到 24 年期間進行了很多合理化，我認為這對我們第一季產生了一定的影響，並且在第二季度也會有一點影響，但我們幾乎已經過去了這種合理化。我認為從現在開始，我們對能夠點對點預測 4% 到 5% 感到滿意。

And again, I'd say it's pretty broad-based across really all of our businesses that you see in the deck that we show. There are kind of some that I would say are probably more impacted by the interest rates higher for longer than others. But I would say that that's mostly kind of in our small business, business banking, maybe private banking space. But in general middle market and up, I think, it seems like we're seeing really, really good opportunities. And again, the pipeline has grown and really feel like that's going to be an opportunity throughout the year.

再說一遍，我想說，它在我們展示的簡報中看到的所有業務中都具有相當廣泛的基礎。我想說，有些企業可能比其他企業更容易受到較高利率的影響。但我想說，這主要是在我們的小型企業、商業銀行業務，也許是私人銀行領域。但我認為，在一般的中端市場和高端市場，我們似乎看到了非常非常好的機會。再說一遍，通路已經成長，我真的感覺這將是全年的一個機會。

And did you comment on your utilization rate for the quarter?

您對本季的使用率有何評論？

I believe it's in our deck, but it's down just a little bit on utilization across the portfolio.

我相信它在我們的套牌中，但整個投資組合的利用率略有下降。

The next question is coming from Scott Siefers of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

So Jim, I was hoping a lot of good detail on Slide 11 regarding the swaps in the securities that will become a pretty meaningful tailwind as we go forward. Are you able to sort of help size just the way you sort of think about things internally, just order of magnitude of how much NII could improve over the course of the next couple of years.

吉姆，我希望幻燈片 11 能提供很多有關證券互換的詳細信息，這將成為我們前進的一個非常有意義的推動力。您是否能夠按照您內部思考問題的方式來確定幫助的大小，以及 NII 在未來幾年內可以改善多少的數量級。

Some of your peers have given sort of a longer out margin outlook. Just anything you're comfortable giving. I think there's sort of a wide range of expectations for what earnings could look like at Comerica over the next couple of years. So just anything that helps sort of narrow the cone a little would be great.

您的一些同行給出了較長的利潤前景。只要你願意給予的任何東西。我認為，人們對聯信未來幾年的獲利狀況抱持著各種各樣的預期。因此，任何有助於縮小錐體的東西都會很棒。

Yes, happy to do that, Scott. It's going to depend somewhat on how we've redeployed that liquidity. So there's going to be a range of outcomes there. But we do pick up increasing momentum as we move through this year. That will continue in the next year. Next year, we are going to be pretty far north of $100 million of net benefit, netting out the maturing securities and swaps versus what we might reinvested in.

是的，很高興這樣做，斯科特。這在一定程度上取決於我們如何重新部署流動性。因此，將會出現一系列的結果。但隨著今年的進展，我們的勢頭確實增強了。這種情況將在明年繼續下去。明年，我們的淨收益將遠遠超過 1 億美元，扣除到期證券和掉期與我們可能再投資的收益。

And that benefit next year will also increase with positive momentum upward as we move through '25. And so the exit rate for '25 going into '26 will also be very substantial. So there is a pretty incredible tailwind come in our direction as it relates to some of these maturities.

隨著我們進入 25 年，明年的這種效益也將隨著積極的上升勢頭而增加。因此，25 年到 26 年的退出率也將非常可觀。因此，我們的方向出現了令人難以置信的順風，因為它與其中一些成熟度有關。

Okay. Perfect. And then maybe if you could speak in a bit more detail around thoughts on capital management. You've been very appropriately conservative. I think the rate moves in the first quarter in particular, kind of validated that. But just curious if there's a point where you just get more comfortable in resuming repurchase in spite of kind of the volatility in the rate backdrop just given what we know will be coming due and sort of going away over the next couple of years?

好的。完美的。然後也許您可以更詳細地談談關於資本管理的想法。你一直都非常保守。我認為尤其是第一季的利率變動，在某種程度上證實了這一點。但我只是好奇，儘管利率背景存在某種波動，但考慮到我們知道將在未來幾年到期並在未來幾年內消失，您是否會在某個時刻更放心地恢復回購？

Yes, that is something we continue to monitor very closely. Obviously, the first -- as we've said many times before, the first use of capital for us is for our customers and -- as you heard from Peter, we are expecting pretty significant loan growth in the second half of the year. So we want to make sure we're there to support the customers. And certainly, we're going to be in very good shape from that standpoint.

是的，這是我們繼續密切關注的事情。顯然，第一個——正如我們之前多次說過的，我們的資本的第一次用途是為我們的客戶——正如你從彼得那裡聽到的，我們預計今年下半年貸款將出現相當大的增長。因此，我們希望確保我們能夠為客戶提供支援。當然，從這個角度來看，我們將處於非常好的狀態。

In terms of turning on the share repurchase, I think we're going to be in really strong shape from a capital ratio standpoint, even with that loan growth. But we continue to look at the interest rate environment and the AOCI and the new end game rules whenever they should happen to come out. We want to make sure we're comfortable from that standpoint.

在啟動股票回購方面，我認為從資本比率的角度來看，即使貸款成長，我們也將處於非常強勁的狀態。但我們會繼續關注利率環境和 AOCI 以及新的最終遊戲規則，只要它們恰好出現。我們希望確保從這個角度來看我們感到舒適。

And we have seen the interest rate environment kind of shift on us in recent months, and the momentum seems to be a little more upward than backwards -- downwards. So that gives us some pause in terms of turning on the share repurchase. And we would like to see some stability in interest rates in the overall curve before we turn the share repurchase back on. So that continues to be the #1 factor that we're looking at.

近幾個月來，我們已經看到利率環境發生了一些變化，向上的勢頭似乎比向下的勢頭要多一些。因此，這讓我們在啟動股票回購方面猶豫不決。在我們重新啟動股票回購之前，我們希望看到整體利率曲線保持一定的穩定性。因此，這仍然是我們正在考慮的第一因素。

Our next question is coming from Steven Alexopoulos of JPMorgan Chase.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂文·阿萊克索普洛斯。

So last quarter, when the forward curve, I think, had 6 cuts at it, Jim, you talked about NIM dipping down a bit in 1Q, then a steady climb. I think you said by the end of 2024, you could get to a NIM that was above the 4Q '23 level, which was 291. It sounds now that the NIM will likely bottom. I think you're saying in 2Q, do you think you could still get up to that 291 level by the end of the year?

所以上個季度，我認為遠期曲線有 6 次削減，吉姆，你談到 NIM 在第一季略有下降，然後穩步攀升。我想你說過，到 2024 年底，你的淨利差可能會高於 23 年第四季的水平，即 291。我想你是在第二季說，你認為到年底你還能達到291的水準嗎？

Yes, I do. We never give a precise NIM percentage for the reasons I've talked about in the past. But I will clarify, even though we see the dollars of net interest income troughing in the second quarter, I do think NIM percentage has troughed in the first quarter that we just saw. And that's because the balance sheet will continue to shrink a little bit as we, on average, have repaid some debt maturities and seeing cash come down. And again, that's one of the reasons I never offer a precise percentage or NIM percentage, because the two of them have two different answers.

是的，我願意。由於我過去談到的原因，我們從未給出精確的淨利差百分比。但我要澄清的是，儘管我們看到淨利息收入在第二季觸底，但我確實認為淨利差百分比在我們剛剛看到的第一季已經觸底。這是因為，隨著我們平均償還了部分債務到期並看到現金減少，資產負債表將繼續略有收縮。再說一遍，這就是我從不提供精確百分比或淨利差百分比的原因之一，因為他們兩個有兩個不同的答案。

But we do see NIM percentage continuing to rise up as we move through the year. I think we'll be closer to that 290, quite frankly, in the second quarter. If you exclude the BSBY impact, you'll see that we're going to have a $3 million BSBY negative impact in the second quarter compared to the positive $3 million we saw in the first quarter. You'll see that in the BSBY amortization slide.

但隨著時間的推移，我們確實看到淨利差百分比持續上升。坦白說，我認為第二季我們將更接近 290。如果排除 BSBY 的影響，您會發現第二季 BSBY 的負面影響將達到 300 萬美元，而第一季的正面影響為 300 萬美元。您將在 BSBY 攤銷幻燈片中看到這一點。

But excluding that, we do expect to be approaching the 290 in the second quarter. And at this point, I would expect to be near or slightly above 3% by the end of the year. So we are on a very positive trajectory as it relates to both net interest income dollars and NIM percentage.

但排除這一點，我們確實預計第二季將接近 290。目前，我預計到年底將接近或略高於 3%。因此，我們正處於非常積極的軌道上，因為它與淨利息收入和淨利差百分比有關。

That's helpful. It's interesting. The key to all of this seems to be this hockey stick you're talking about of loan growth coming back in the back half of the year. It's interesting when you look like current GDP is fairly strong. Your markets, in particular, it's fairly strong. You have general middle market balance is still declining. And I feel like we've been down this road before, not only with Comerica, with the industry where pipeline has improved, but then we don't see it translate into actual low growth.

這很有幫助。這真有趣。所有這一切的關鍵似乎是你所說的今年下半年貸款成長的曲棍球棒。當你看起來當前的 GDP 相當強勁時，這很有趣。尤其是你們的市場，相當強勁。總體而言，中間市場餘額仍在下降。我覺得我們以前已經走過這條路了，不僅是聯信，整個行業的管道都得到了改善，但我們並沒有看到它轉化為實際的低增長。

What gives you that confidence? Like, what is going to change with the economic picture right now versus the second half where you will suddenly see so much more commercial loan growth in the second half?

是什麼給了你這樣的信心？例如，現在的經濟狀況與下半年相比會發生什麼變化，下半年你會突然看到商業貸款成長如此之多？

Steve, it's Peter. I mean I guess that I would say prior to the banking crisis, we weren't seeing pretty good loan growth across all of our portfolio, particularly in middle market. And you're right, our geographies -- I mean I think the diversity of our portfolio continues to show really, really well.

史蒂夫，是彼得。我的意思是，我想我會說，在銀行業危機之前，我們的所有投資組合中都沒有看到很好的貸款成長，特別是在中間市場。你是對的，我們的地理位置——我的意思是我認為我們投資組合的多樣性繼續表現得非常非常好。

And -- in middle market, in our geographies, we're having really good results, believe it or not in Michigan, in Texas, California is probably the most challenged. But a lot of our national businesses are not necessarily geographic specific. And so I think that, that sort of broad-based regular growth is what we would expect to see across a lot of our businesses.

而且 - 在中間市場，在我們的地區，無論您相信與否，我們都取得了非常好的結果，在密西根州、德克薩斯州、加利福尼亞州可能是面臨最大挑戰的。但我們許多全國性的企業不一定具有特定地域性。因此，我認為，我們期望在我們的許多業務中看到這種基礎廣泛的定期成長。

And we've got different levers there that we can pull on how much we want to do in one business at any one time. And I think we feel really good about the overall trajectory in the second half of the year. So you're right. I mean the first quarter came in a little lower than we maybe had expected. But I think what we're seeing in the pipeline growth and our customer sentiment continues to improve quarter-over-quarter. And so that's what gives us the confidence that we expect to see that in the second half of the year.

我們有不同的槓桿，我們可以隨時在一項業務中發揮我們想做的事情。我認為我們對今年下半年的整體軌跡感覺非常好。所以你是對的。我的意思是第一季的收入略低於我們的預期。但我認為我們在通路成長和客戶情緒方面看到的情況逐季度持續改善。因此，這給了我們信心，我們預計將在今年下半年看到這一點。

Got it. Peter, do we need to see the Fed cutting rates to get this loan growth story moving? Like if we don't get rate cuts this year, are you guys still confident we'll see that improvement in the second half?

知道了。彼得，我們是否需要看到聯準會降息才能推動貸款成長的故事？就像如果我們今年不降息，你們仍然有信心我們會在下半年看到這種改善嗎？

That's a really good question. I would say that the last 45 days, that's probably a little bit of our factor into going from 5% to -- 4% to 5% I would say a little bit. In some markets, that interest rate issue is bigger than others and in some businesses, as I said a little while ago, I think you see that in business banking. I think you see that in small business. I would say California Middle Market is a little more interest rate sensitive. It seems like in our other markets.

這是一個非常好的問題。我想說的是，過去 45 天，這可能是我們從 5% 上升到 4% 到 5% 的因素。在某些市場中，利率問題比其他市場更大，而在某些企業中，正如我剛才所說，我認為您在商業銀行業務中看到了這一點。我想你在小企業中也能看到這一點。我想說加州中間市場對利率比較敏感一些。這似乎在我們的其他市場也是如此。

But when you look at kind of our broader specialty businesses, I don't know that the interest rate outlook is per se a headwind or a tailwind really for that space. So again, I think the diversity of the portfolio gives us some good tailwinds into whatever kind of interest rate environment we're going to see. But I guess I would say the smaller more consumer-oriented businesses, smaller businesses probably have a little bit of an interest rate headwind to them, but that's not a large, large percentage of our book overall.

但當你看看我們更廣泛的專業業務時，我不知道利率前景本身對該領域來說是逆風還是順風。再說一次，我認為投資組合的多樣性為我們帶來了一些良好的推動力，無論我們將看到什麼樣的利率環境。但我想我想說的是，規模較小、以消費者為導向的企業可能會面臨一些利率阻力，但這並不是我們整體書中所佔的很大比例。

The next question is coming from Bernard Von Gizycki of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Bernard Von Gizycki。

So you introduced the expense recalibration last quarter and just wanted to get an update on the optimization of the real estate footprint and headcount reductions. I think headcount declined about 82 versus last quarter, and you noted the remaining will get done in 2Q. So how do we think about that $45 million cost savings being realized throughout the year?

因此，您在上個季度引入了費用重新調整，只是想了解有關房地產足跡優化和人員削減的最新資訊。我認為員工人數比上個季度減少了約 82 人，您指出剩餘的員工將在第二季完成。那麼我們該如何看待全年實現的 4,500 萬美元成本節省呢？

Bernard, it's Jim. We still feel very good about that $45 million. We're very much on track what we had expected. Relative to headcount, we did recognize some of that change in headcount in the first quarter. Some of the colleagues have been notified, but actually hadn't moved off the payroll yet. So we haven't seen all that headcount reduction yet. But we have seen a piece of it.

伯納德，是吉姆。我們對這 4500 萬美元仍然感覺很好。我們非常符合我們的期望。相對於員工人數，我們確實認識到第一季員工人數的一些變化。有些同事已經接到通知，但實際上還沒有取消工資。所以我們還沒有看到員工人數全部減少。但我們已經看到了其中的一部分。

There is a much smaller portion of that headcount that has been redeployed into other open positions, but we would expect it to fill those positions anyway. And so we will continue to see some attrition of talent just as we continue to implement the savings ideas. But virtually all colleagues have been notified at this point, and we're very much on track.

該員工中有一小部分已重新部署到其他空缺職位，但我們希望它無論如何都能填補這些職位。因此，在我們繼續實施節約理念的同時，我們將繼續看到人才流失。但此時幾乎所有同事都已收到通知，我們已經步入正軌。

I had mentioned in the last call that we do plan on reinvesting many of that savings and some of that investment -- a fair amount of it will be in risk management profile and the risk framework. And some of that will entail hiring colleagues in that space. So you won't necessarily see the same drop on a net basis that we talked about on a gross basis in the last call. But I would just summarize it to say that we are very much on track with that $45 million that we talked about.

我在上次電話會議中提到，我們確實計劃將大部分儲蓄和部分投資進行再投資——其中相當一部分將用於風險管理概況和風險框架。其中一些需要雇用該領域的同事。因此，您不一定會看到我們在上次電話會議中談到的毛利率下降同樣的淨值下降。但我只想總結一下，我們所說的 4500 萬美元已經步入正軌。

Okay. Great. And then just -- you've highlighted the nice progress, obviously, on reducing the FHLB advances and brokered deposits. How should we think about the opportunity to further reduce wholesale funding throughout the rest of the year?

好的。偉大的。然後，您顯然強調了在減少 FHLB 預付款和經紀存款方面取得的良好進展。我們該如何看待今年剩餘時間內進一步減少批發融資的機會？

Well, we -- at this point, we've done a large portion of what we plan to do. We don't have any near-term FHLB maturities. We finished a lot of that up this quarter. And so we don't necessarily want to repay that and incur the penalty. So I think where we're going to be from -- in large part, FHLB borrowings for right now.

嗯，到目前為止，我們已經完成了計劃中的大部分工作。我們沒有任何近期 FHLB 到期日。本季我們完成了很多工作。所以我們不一定想償還這筆錢並招致罰款。所以我認為我們現在的資金主要來自 FHLB 的借款。

We do have a lot of brokered deposits. Most of our brokered deposits on the books to mature this year. And we will let some of those roll off the books permanently, and some of those we will roll over. So it depends on the shape of the balance sheet at that point. We do have a senior debt issuance that matures later this summer.

我們確實有很多經紀存款。我們大部分的經紀存款將於今年到期。我們將讓其中一些永久地從帳簿上滾銷，而其中一些我們將滾動。因此，這取決於當時資產負債表的狀況。我們確實有一項高級債券發行，將於今年夏天晚些時候到期。

And depending on the state of the capital markets, we would love to go out and term out more of our funding. So that's going to depend on market receptiveness and overall credit spreads. But you're not going to see as significant of a change in summary in the remaining 9 months is what you've seen in recent months and what you saw in the first quarter.

根據資本市場的狀況，我們願意走出去並退出更多的資金。因此，這將取決於市場的接受程度和整體信用利差。但在剩下的 9 個月裡，你不會看到像最近幾個月和第一季看到的那樣顯著的變化。

The next question is coming from Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞。

So I wanted to ask on deposits. I can see that they're tracking relatively flat across the commercial bank. But I think rate expectations moved more meaningfully in the back half of the quarter, and again, more recently of the quarter ended. Is there much of a headwind from commercial clients may be taking a look -- like taking another look at their NIB balances in a higher for longer rate environment. Maybe if you can talk about what are you hearing from them? Is that something they could do? Or do you think that's pretty much -- that move from NIB to IB is pretty much done at this stage?

所以我想問一下存款的事。我可以看到整個商業銀行的表現相對穩定。但我認為，利率預期在本季後半段發生了更有意義的變化，而且在本季結束時也是如此。商業客戶是否會面臨很大的阻力——例如在長期利率較高的環境中再次審視他們的NIB餘額。也許您可以談談您從他們那裡聽到了什麼？這是他們能做的事嗎？或者您認為從 NIB 到 IB 的轉變在現階段已經基本完成了嗎？

Manan, that's a good question. This is Peter. I would say, overall, we believe that, that move from NIB to IB is over. But I think you probably still have some moving parts to Jim's point, if interest rates stay higher for longer, that conversation probably continues throughout the year.

馬南，這是個好問題。這是彼得。我想說，總的來說，我們相信，從 NIB 到 IB 的轉變已經結束。但我認為吉姆的觀點可能仍然有一些動人的地方，如果利率保持在較高水平的時間更長，這種對話可能會持續一整年。

But I don't think it's at the pace that what we saw the last 18 months. So what we continue to hear is that our customers are really confident in Comerica. They're really happy with what we're providing them, products and services for their liquidity. And we feel like the rates that we're putting out are very competitive.

但我認為這並沒有達到我們過去 18 個月所看到的速度。因此，我們不斷聽到的是，我們的客戶對 Comerica 非常有信心。他們對我們為他們提供的產品和服務感到非常滿意，以提高他們的流動性。我們覺得我們提供的費率非常有競爭力。

So overall, the feedback that we're getting from our managers and our customers is, I would tell you, it feels like the answer to that is yes, that we think it's over. But I think particularly in our larger businesses, that's going to be a regular dialogue throughout the year as we kind of see what the interest rate outlook is.

總的來說，我會告訴你，我們從經理和客戶那裡得到的回饋是，感覺答案是肯定的，我們認為一切都結束了。但我認為，特別是在我們的大型企業中，這將是全年的定期對話，因為我們可以了解利率前景。

I would remind you, though, when you look at the -- you talk about the commercial bank deposits, we've got a very healthy retail bank deposit base, very healthy wealth management deposit base, both of which have really performed really well lately. And so I think that when you look at the balance sheet for us, again, the diversity of our deposit base is terribly powerful on a go-forward basis. So there's a lot of levers that we can move when it comes to interest rates and how we go out and attract deposits.

不過，我想提醒你，當你談論商業銀行存款時，我們有一個非常健康的零售銀行存款基礎，非常健康的財富管理存款基礎，這兩者最近都表現得非常好。因此，我認為，當你再次查看我們的資產負債表時，我們的存款基礎的多樣性在未來的基礎上非常強大。因此，在利率以及如何走出去和吸引存款方面，我們可以使用很多槓桿。

Yes. I appreciate that. Yes, that didn't go unnoticed. Maybe just shifting over to credit. The NPLs and criticized assets both increased Q-on-Q. I know you mentioned that the migration should be manageable, but how much of this is just a normalization in the level of NPLs and criticized assets versus the impact of higher for longer rates on your borrowers? And also if you can throw any more light on what you're seeing in specific industries?

是的。我很感激。是的，這並沒有被忽視。也許只是轉向信貸。不良資產和不良資產較上季均上升。我知道你提到遷移應該是可控的，但這在多大程度上只是不良貸款和批評資產水準的正常化，而不是長期較高利率對借款人的影響？另外，您能否更詳細地介紹一下您在特定行業中看到的情況？

Sure. This is Melinda. Thanks, Manan. I appreciate the question. Yes, I would characterize credit overall as being in really good shape. And I know the term normalization has been used a lot over the last couple of quarters, but I would characterize our movement as definitely in that normalization phase. All of our metrics still are meaningfully below kind of our long-term average, particularly the nonperforming assets are less than half of what our normal range would be. So those are very, very well controlled.

當然。這是梅琳達。謝謝，馬南。我很欣賞這個問題。是的，我認為整體信用狀況非常良好。我知道「正常化」這個詞在過去幾季被廣泛使用，但我認為我們的運動絕對處於正常化階段。我們的所有指標仍然明顯低於我們的長期平均水平，特別是不良資產不到我們正常範圍的一半。所以這些都得到了非常非常好的控制。

The increase in the criticized category this quarter came almost exclusively from a portion of our large corporate portfolio in that services the senior housing space. And so we've been watching this portfolio for a couple of quarters. As Jim mentioned in his comments, we tend to focus on newer construction type projects.

本季度受到批評的類別的增加幾乎完全來自我們大型企業投資組合中為高級住房空間提供服務的一部分。因此，我們幾個季度以來一直在關注這個投資組合。正如吉姆在評論中提到的，我們傾向於關注較新的建築類型項目。

These are progressive living type facilities that are very, very appealing to an aging population but they have element that's more real estate oriented, so very sensitive to high interest rates, but it's also an operating business in the health care space. So they've had a lot of labor challenges coming out of COVID. They've also had a lot of challenges just in getting back to an occupancy level that would allow them to get to stabilization, impacted again by some of the inflationary pressures.

這些是先進的生活型設施，對老齡化人口非常非常有吸引力，但它們具有更多以房地產為導向的元素，因此對高利率非常敏感，但它也是醫療保健領域的經營業務。因此，他們面臨新冠疫情帶來的許多勞動力挑戰。他們也面臨著許多挑戰，只是為了回到入住率水平，使他們能夠再次受到一些通膨壓力的影響，從而達到穩定。

So we -- this quarter, over the last couple of quarters, we've been diving deep into this portfolio. We did a 100% portfolio review and felt like we took a very appropriately conservative posture around risk rating. We've been in the business for 30 years. We've got very experienced colleagues on the line credit and our special assets team that is monitoring this portfolio.

因此，本季度以及過去幾個季度，我們一直在深入研究該投資組合。我們進行了 100% 的投資組合審查，感覺我們在風險評級方面採取了非常適當的保守態度。我們從事這個行業已有 30 年了。我們在信貸方面擁有經驗豐富的同事，而我們的特殊資產團隊正在監控該投資組合。

We have 1 nonperforming asset. We have very strong customers and the majority of the portfolio has recourse. So -- I think the -- I feel pretty good about what the outcome here is going to be, although headwinds will continue to be a higher for longer rate environment. There's a lot of tailwinds for this space, including an aging population. The demographic that this portfolio serves would tend to be a little bit more affluent because it is all private pay.

我們有 1 項不良資產。我們擁有非常強大的客戶，大多數投資組合都有追索權。因此，我認為，我對這裡的結果感到非常滿意，儘管長期利率環境的阻力將繼續更大。這個領域有很多有利因素，包括人口老化。該投資組合所服務的人群往往會更富裕一些，因為都是私人支付。

So again, the senior housing portfolio was the biggest mover in the quarter. Everything else is actually performing quite well. I would call commercial real estate very stable. And in fact, if you look in the slides, there are some positive trends in commercial real estate.

因此，高級住房投資組合再次成為本季最大的推動因素。其他一切實際上都表現得很好。我認為商業地產非常穩定。事實上，如果你看一下投影片，你會發現商業房地產出現了一些正面的趨勢。

Leverage portfolio is very stable. Automotive is stable and PLS always has elevated criticized and losses there have been very manageable. So I think we'll continue to see some moderate level of migration, but our reserve levels are very appropriate for where we are in the cycle.

槓桿組合非常穩定。汽車產業很穩定，PLS 一直受到批評，損失也非常可控。因此，我認為我們將繼續看到一定程度的移民，但我們的儲備水平非常適合我們所處的周期。

The next question is coming from Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克梅奧。

I heard you credit is strong or really good shape. You had lower charge-offs quarter-over-quarter. Criticized loans are below historical. Loan loss reserves are flat. And you also added on Slide 25, you've had no big net charge-offs in commercial real estate since 2014. So it's been a decade since anything major. But I'm just trying to reconcile kind of a good environment today based on your comments with the headwinds from external factors possibly in the future.

聽說你信用很強或體質很好。沖銷額季減。受到批評的貸款低於歷史水準。貸款損失準備金持平。您還在幻燈片 25 上補充道，自 2014 年以來，您在商業房地產領域沒有出現過大的淨沖銷。但我只是試圖根據您的評論來協調今天的良好環境與未來可能出現的外部因素的不利因素。

So specifically, multifamily with about half of your total commercial real estate, 60% in California and Texas. And I think some of the issues out there and correct me if I'm wrong, but falling rental rates, higher interest rates, higher cap rates and impending loan maturities. So the question is under what scenarios would Comerica feel the need to build reserves on multifamily or other CRE?

具體來說，多戶住宅約佔商業房地產總量的一半，其中 60% 位於加州和德州。我認為存在一些問題，如果我錯了，請糾正我，但租金率下降、利率上升、上限利率上升和即將到期的貸款到期。那麼問題是，在什麼情況下，Comerica 會覺得有必要為多戶住宅或其他商業房地產建立儲備？

Mike, this is Melinda. Thanks for the question. So let's talk just a little bit about our multifamily portfolio. You're right, we do have a large portfolio there. We've been in this business for many, many decades. It is a product category that we specifically leaned into post Great Recession because of its general resiliency.

麥克，這是梅琳達。謝謝你的提問。那麼，讓我們來談談我們的多戶型投資組合。你是對的，我們確實在那裡擁有大量的產品組合。我們從事這個行業已經有很多很多年了。這是我們在大衰退後特別傾向的產品類別，因為它具有普遍的彈性。

Our underwriting criteria is very conservative in this space. We are a loan-to-cost lender. So the amount of equity that goes into these projects generally at 35% to 40%. We are having very successful exits when loans are ready to either mature or properties are sold. Appraisals, although they are down from what we underwrote are still well within guidelines, in fact, below guidelines because of the amount of equity that we have on the front end.

我們的承保標準在這個領域非常保守。我們是一家貸款成本貸款機構。因此，這些項目的股權比例一般為 35% 至 40%。當貸款準備到期或房產出售時，我們的退出非常成功。評估雖然低於我們承保的水平，但仍然完全符合指導方針，事實上，由於我們在前端擁有的股本金額，低於指導方針。

So we are seeing a little bit of softness in rent growth. We underwrite to sensitize rent. So there's a tremendous amount of leeway within the project. So we have -- as you said, we have no criticized assets. We've had no charge-offs. We have 0 delinquencies where it's appropriate for exits that the borrower has decided to either sell the property or move it into long-term financing. There is still that opportunity. Plenty of equity in the projects to make that happen.

因此，我們看到租金成長有些疲軟。我們承保以提高租金敏感度。因此，該項目有很大的迴旋餘地。因此，正如您所說，我們沒有受到批評的資產。我們沒有任何沖銷。當借款人決定出售房產或將其轉為長期融資時，我們的拖欠率為零。仍然有這樣的機會。專案中的大量股權可以實現這一目標。

So I feel very, very confident. Majority of this portfolio -- the vast majority is floating rate. So it's already absorbed kind of current rates. I mean if rates were to continue to go up, if we had an upward trajectory, there would be a little bit more downward pressure, but I don't see a scenario, honestly, where we have losses in this portfolio, just given who we do business with, how we underwrite and where we stand from a collateral perspective.

所以我覺得我非常非常有信心。該投資組合的大部分——絕大多數是浮動利率。所以它已經吸收了當前的利率。我的意思是，如果利率繼續上升，如果我們有上升的軌跡，就會有更多的下行壓力，但老實說，我不認為我們的投資組合會出現虧損，只要考慮到誰我們的業務夥伴、我們的承保方式以及我們從抵押品角度的立場。

That's helpful. So when you say the appraisals are down from when you underwrote them, how much are the appraisals down? And what would be kind of a trigger point that would cause some concern?

這很有幫助。那麼，當您說評估比承保時下降時，評估下降了多少？什麼樣的觸發點會引起一些擔憂？

Appraisals, the recent appraisal, call it, in the last 90 days or so are down anywhere from 10% to 20%, which, again, most of our loan-to-values are sub-60%. So we're still well within reasonable guidelines from a loan-to-value perspective. So we're just not seeing -- we're not seeing massive deterioration of value in the multifamily space.

評估，即最近的評估，在過去 90 天左右的時間裡下降了 10% 到 20%，同樣，我們的大多數貸款價值比都低於 60%。因此，從貸款價值比的角度來看，我們仍然處於合理的指導範圍內。所以我們只是沒有看到——我們沒有看到多戶住宅空間的價值大幅惡化。

There are some headwinds for multifamily. Obviously, there's a lot of supply coming online, but there's also tailwinds. I mean where our projects are tend to be in areas where employment and population growth is strong. That would be Texas, particularly. And again, because of the conservative underwriting, even with rent growth declining and some amount of -- small amount of concessions needed to get these projects to stabilization, we just don't see any credit deterioration.

多戶家庭面臨一些阻力。顯然，線上供應量很大，但也有順風車。我的意思是，我們的計畫往往位於就業和人口成長強勁的地區。尤其是德克薩斯州。再說一次，由於承保保守，即使租金增長下降，並且需要一些小額讓步才能使這些項目穩定下來，我們也沒有看到任何信用惡化。

And one last pushback. Again, you have the track record. You've been in the business decades. You've had a decade of great performance. But when you say there's no scenarios where you'd have serious losses there. Is that a little bit -- do you want to be a little bit more conservative with that statement because that's been pretty strong. I mean, that's a high level of conviction for sure.

還有最後反擊。再說一次，你有記錄。你已經從事這個行業幾十年了。十年來你的表現非常出色。但當你說不存在會造成嚴重損失的情況時。這是不是有點——你想對這個聲明更加保守一點嗎，因為這已經相當強烈了。我的意思是，這無疑是一種高度的信念。

Well, I think if -- if I think about what -- if we go into a massive recession, is it possible? Yes. I think we're pretty confident that the economy is on reasonably good footing and the outlook for a soft landing is certainly what the consensus is. So even if rates went up, call it, 50, 100 basis points, I think this portfolio would still perform.

好吧，我想如果——如果我想一想——如果我們陷入大規模衰退，有可能嗎？是的。我認為我們非常有信心，經濟處於相當良好的基礎上，軟著陸的前景肯定是共識。因此，即使利率上升，稱之為 50、100 個基點，我認為這個投資組合仍然會表現良好。

So yes, I'm pretty confident that we're in really good footing. Now with all that said, we do have reserves on this portfolio, and we continue to build the reserve on our commercial loan -- commercial real estate book just in case that's why the reserves are there. And so again, even if we did have some losses, we're well reserved.

所以，是的，我非常有信心我們的基礎非常好。話雖如此，我們確實在這個投資組合上有準備金，並且我們繼續在商業貸款——商業房地產賬簿上建立準備金，以防萬一這就是準備金存在的原因。再說一次，即使我們確實有一些損失，我們也有充分的保留。

The next question is coming from Chris McGratty of KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

Jim, I want to go back to the securities comments, and you have a couple of comments in the deck. When should we think the security book trough on a dollar basis? I know you're starting to reinvest a little bit. But just conceptually the mix of the balance sheet over the next couple of years, bonds, cash, loans, loan to deposit. How do we think about just the ultimate troughing of the bond book?

吉姆，我想回到證券評論，你在甲板上有一些評論。我們什麼時候應該考慮以美元為基礎的證券帳面低谷？我知道你開始進行一點再投資。但只是概念上未來幾年資產負債表、債券、現金、貸款、貸存比的組合。我們如何看待債券最終的低谷？

Chris, right now, we still are carrying a little higher level of securities than we typically would. We do think we're going to get to the point somewhat of a trough, probably let's call it, in the first quarter of next year, give or take, where we'll start to reinvest in our MBS portfolio. As we imply in the slide, we are doing some very minor amounts of treasury reinvestments starting around now, but those are relatively small amounts.

克里斯，現在，我們持有的證券水準仍然比平常高一些。我們確實認為我們將在明年第一季達到某種程度的低谷，或許我們可以稱之為低谷，無論如何，我們將開始對我們的 MBS 投資組合進行再投資。正如我們在幻燈片中暗示的那樣，我們從現在開始正在進行一些非常少量的國債再投資，但這些金額相對較小。

In the past, if you look at our securities as a percentage of the balance sheet, it's going to vary, and it should vary based on the composition of the balance sheet and deposit levels and the types of deposits we have. But in the past, we've carried securities on the balance sheet anywhere from mid- to high teens of total assets.

在過去，如果你將我們的證券視為資產負債表的百分比，它會有所不同，並且應該根據資產負債表的組成和存款水平以及我們擁有的存款類型而有所不同。但過去，我們資產負債表上的證券佔總資產的比例從中等到高不等。

I would see that probably going up a couple of percentage points going forward just because we're hearing and putting ourselves relative against higher liquidity runoffs just to be that much more conservative given what we saw with the regional bank crisis last year and the higher regulatory bar.

我認為未來可能會上升幾個百分點，因為我們聽到並把自己置於相對於更高的流動性徑流的相對位置，考慮到我們去年看到的地區銀行危機和更高的監管，我們會更加保守酒吧。

And so we probably will carry relative to history, a little higher percentage than we have in the past. But we're still not there quite yet, but I suspect we will be by the first quarter or so of next year.

因此，相對於歷史而言，我們的百分比可能會比過去略高。但我們還沒有達到這一目標，但我懷疑我們將在明年第一季左右實現這一目標。

Great. That's helpful. And then maybe one quick modeling. You mentioned the discrete tax benefit. What was the dollar amount of that in the quarter?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後也許是一個快速建模。您提到了離散稅收優惠。本季的金額是多少？

On a net basis, it was $11 million.

以淨額計算，該金額為 1100 萬美元。

The next question is coming from Zach Westerlind of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的紮克·韋斯特林德。

My question is just on the NII guide. I think a key piece of that was around the beta assumptions. So I was wondering if you could provide any color on that? And kind of like what are your assumptions around the down beta compared to the up-cycle beta?

我的問題只是關於 NII 指南。我認為其中一個關鍵部分是貝塔假設。所以我想知道你是否可以提供任何顏色？與上行週期貝塔值相比，你對下行貝塔值有何假設？

We actually are assuming in the guide that we stick pretty close to that sensitivity -- alternate sensitivity that we provide on the asset sensitivity slide, which is 60%, and we're at a cumulative beta, of course, right now 62%. So we would expect initially to go down something close to the current cumulative beta of 60%. We would expect probably up to a 1-month lag likely relative to Fed cuts.

實際上，我們在指南中假設我們非常接近該敏感度——我們在資產敏感度投影片上提供的替代敏感度，即 60%，當然，我們現在處於累積貝塔值 62%。因此，我們預計最初會下降到接近當前 60% 的累積貝塔值。我們預計相對於聯準會降息可能會有​​長達 1 個月的延遲。

But I will emphasize that every cycle is a little bit different in terms of how quickly the industry is allowed to cut. And I continue to say that it depends on, frankly, the reason for the Fed cuts. If it's a very orderly takedown and it's a very soft landing, you might see a little bit more delay in those cuts. And if it's due to some concern in the economy, it makes it a lot easier to enforce some of those cuts. So it's going to really depend on how the overall landscape of the economy lays out and the reason for those cuts.

但我要強調的是，每個週期在允許行業削減的速度方面都略有不同。我繼續說，坦白說，這取決於聯準會降息的原因。如果這是一次非常有序的拆除並且是一次非常軟的著陸，那麼您可能會發現這些削減會出現更多的延遲。如果是出於對經濟的某種擔憂，那麼執行其中一些削減就會容易得多。因此，這實際上取決於經濟的整體格局以及削減的原因。

But we feel pretty confident that we can get some significant reductions from those customers that most recently pushed the beta up. And I continue to say that we're on a little bit of a LIFO basis, last in first out. Some of the bigger increases that we've seen came in the last few months from a beta standpoint. And those will probably be the easiest ones to push back down since they were closer to that 100% beta level. So anyway, the short answer to your question is we are assuming a 60% beta on the way down with about a 1-month lag.

但我們非常有信心，我們可以從最近推高測試版的客戶那裡獲得一些顯著的折扣。我繼續說，我們有點遵循後進先出的原則。從測試版的角度來看，我們看到的一些較大的成長是在過去幾個月中出現的。這些可能是最容易降低的，因為它們更接近 100% 的測試水平。所以無論如何，對你的問題的簡短回答是，我們假設貝塔值下降 60%，並有大約 1 個月的滯後。

At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Curt Farmer, President, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, for closing comments.

現在，我想請總裁、董事長兼執行長柯特法默 (Curt Farmer) 發表結束評論。

Well, thank you to those of you that participated in our call this morning. As always, thank you for your interest in Comerica, and we hope you have a good day. Thank you.

好的，感謝今天早上參加我們電話會議的人。一如既往，感謝您對聯信的興趣，祝您有個愉快的一天。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines and log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。今天的活動到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路並退出網路廣播，享受接下來的一天。