Comerica Inc (CMA) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Comerica Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Kelly Gage, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Kelly.

您好，歡迎參加 Comerica 2023 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係總監凱利·蓋奇(Kelly Gage)。請繼續，凱利。

Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, and welcome to Comerica's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman and CEO, Curt Farmer; Chief Financial Officer, Jim Herzog; Chief Credit Officer, Melinda Chausse; and Chief Banking Officer, Peter Sefzik. During this presentation, we will be referring to slides, which will provide additional details. The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC's website as well as in the Investor Relations section of our website, comerica.com.

謝謝，凱文。早上好，歡迎參加 Comerica 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。參加本次電話會議的包括我們的總裁、董事長兼執行長 Curt Farmer；財務長吉姆·赫爾佐格；首席信貸官 Melinda Chausse；和首席銀行官 Peter Sefzik。在本次簡報中，我們將參考幻燈片，其中將提供更多詳細資訊。簡報投影片和我們的新聞稿可在 SEC 網站以及我們網站 comerica.com 的投資者關係部分取得。

This conference call contains forward-looking statements, and in that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially from expectations. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor statement in today's earnings presentation on Slide 2, which is incorporated into this call as well as our SEC filings for factors that can cause actual results to differ. Also, this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures. And in that regard, I direct you to the reconciliation of these measures in the earnings materials that are available on our website comerica.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Curt Farmer.

本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，在這方面，您應該注意可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的風險和不確定性。前瞻性陳述僅代表截至本簡報發布之日的情況，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。請參閱今天投影片 2 上的收益簡報中的安全港聲明，該聲明已納入本次電話會議以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中，以了解可能導致實際結果不同的因素。此外，本次電話會議也將參考非公認會計準則衡量標準。在這方面，我將指導您在我們的網站 comerica.com 上提供的收益資料中對這些措施進行核對。這樣，我會將電話轉給 Curt Farmer。

Well, thank you, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call. Today, we reported third quarter net income of $251 million or $1.84 per share. Moderation per share, exceeding expectations, deliver optimization and moderation in customer demand drove a decline in average loans to $54 billion. Successful execution of our targeted deposit strategy grew customer balances, enabling us to repay $5 billion in maturing FHLB advances. Our continued focus on fee income produced another robust quarter and credit quality remained very strong with modest net charge-offs following 3 consecutive quarters of net recoveries. Complementing our compelling financial results, we advanced other strategic initiatives. Small business remains a priority, and I'm excited to announce that we exceeded our $5 billion lending goal ahead of our 3-year commitment.

好的，謝謝大家，大家早安。感謝您加入我們的通話。今天，我們報告第三季淨利潤為 2.51 億美元，即每股 1.84 美元。每股適度成長超出預期，實現了客戶需求的最佳化和適度，導致平均貸款下降至 540 億美元。我們的目標存款策略的成功執行增加了客戶餘額，使我們能夠償還到期的 50 億美元 FHLB 預付款。我們對費用收入的持續關注創造了另一個強勁的季度，信貸品質仍然非常強勁，在連續三個季度淨復甦後，淨沖銷額適度。為了補充我們引人注目的財務業績，我們也推進了其他策略舉措。小型企業仍然是優先考慮的事項，我很高興地宣布，我們在 3 年承諾之前就超出了 50 億美元的貸款目標。

With our investments in talent, products and services for this important sector, we believe small business will become a growth engine over time. Achievements such as publishing our first finance submissions report, making community development investments and recognition for our volunteer program further underscore the value we place on supporting the communities we serve. Advancing our Ameriprise partnership and selective talent acquisition within Wealth Management, position us to achieve our noninterest income objectives while deepening customer relationships. We continue modernizing our approach to technology to better enable agile product enhancements as we leverage off-premise platforms to run over 3/4 of our business applications. Progress towards these initiatives allow us to balance the strength of our legacy for the future vision to sustainably support our customers as a trusted banking partner.

透過我們對這個重要產業的人才、產品和服務的投資，我們相信隨著時間的推移，小型企業將成為成長引擎。發布我們的第一份財務報告、進行社區發展投資以及對我們的志工計畫的認可等成就進一步強調了我們對支持我們所服務的社區的重視。推動我們的 Ameriprise 合作夥伴關係和財富管理領域的選擇性人才招聘，使我們能夠實現非利息收入目標，同時加深客戶關係。我們利用外部平台運行超過 3/4 的業務應用程序，並繼續對技術方法進行現代化改造，以更好地實現敏捷產品增強。這些措施的進展使我們能夠平衡我們傳統的力量，實現未來願景，作為值得信賴的銀行合作夥伴可持續地支持我們的客戶。

Moving to a summary of our results on Slide 4. Average loans declined to $1.4 billion with the largest reduction resulting from our strategic exit of Mortgage Banker Finance. Success winning new deposits and bringing back customer balances drove an increase in average deposits of $1.6 billion. Net interest income exceeded expectations for the quarter, even with the impact of competitive deposit pricing and loan trends. Credit quality remained very strong despite continued expected migration. Outperformance to noninterest income partially offset higher-than-expected expense pressures.

接下來是投影片 4 上我們的結果摘要。平均貸款下降至 14 億美元，其中降幅最大的是我們策略性退出 Mortgage Banker Finance。成功贏得新存款並恢復客戶餘額推動平均存款增加 16 億美元。即使受到競爭性存款定價和貸款趨勢的影響，本季的淨利息收入仍超出預期。儘管預期移民仍在繼續，但信貸品質仍然非常強勁。非利息收入的優異表現部分抵銷了高於預期的支出壓力。

Finally, profitability and loan selectivity further enhanced our capital position as we generated an estimated CET1 ratio of 10.79%, above our 10% target. Despite the disruptive industry events earlier this year, we eventually managed our balance sheet to create abundant liquidity, enhance returns over time while taking care of our customers and exceeding the profitability expectations. Now I'll turn the call over to Jim, who will walk through the quarter in more detail.

最後，獲利能力和貸款選擇性進一步增強了我們的資本狀況，我們的 CET1 比率預計為 10.79%，高於我們 10% 的目標。儘管今年稍早發生了顛覆性的行業事件，但我們最終管理了我們的資產負債表，創造了充足的流動性，隨著時間的推移提高回報，同時照顧我們的客戶並超越盈利預期。現在我將把電話轉給吉姆，他將更詳細地介紹本季。

Thanks, Curt, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 5. Our strategic actions and shift to optimization caused average loans and commitments to decline. The exit of Mortgage Banker Finance is progressing as expected, and contributed to almost half of the reduction in average balances. We still expect the exit to be substantially complete by year-end. Declines in equity fund services were largely concentrated in nonrelationship customers, but we remain committed to this important business. Lower utilization within General Middle Market reduced balances, reflecting softening loan demand in this elevated rate environment. Ongoing funding of multifamily and industrial construction projects continued to drive higher commercial real estate utilization, but we saw an inflection in commitment growth as we strategically manage pipeline and origination volume. The floating nature of our commercial loan portfolio benefited from rising rates as loan yields continued to climb to 6.34% in the third quarter.

謝謝，柯特，大家早安。轉向投影片 5。我們的策略行動和優化轉變導致平均貸款和承諾下降。 Mortgage Banker Finance 的退出正在按預期進行，並導致平均餘額減少近一半。我們仍然預計退出將在年底前基本完成。股票基金服務的下降主要集中在非關係客戶，但我們仍然致力於這項重要業務。一般中間市場利用率下降減少了餘額，反映出在這種高利率環境下貸款需求疲軟。多戶住宅和工業建設項目的持續融資繼續推動商業房地產利用率的提高，但隨著我們策略性地管理管道和初始數量，我們看到承諾增長出現了拐點。我們的商業貸款組合的浮動性質受益於利率上升，第三季貸款收益率持續攀升至 6.34%。

Slide 6 demonstrates our successful deposit generation. Average deposit balances increased 2.4%, exceeding expectations and H8 trends as we added new deposits and won back customer balances that diversified earlier in the year. In fact, Corporate Banking and Middle Market California both closed the quarter in line with our early March balances after experiencing more concentrated diversification in Q1. As expected, noninterest-bearing deposits trended down at a decelerating rate with the lowest balance decline in the last 4 quarters. Considering that modest reduction, our deposit mix was more impacted by growth in the denominator with success in winning interest-bearing deposits.

投影片 6 展示了我們成功的存款產生。由於我們增加了新存款並贏回了今年早些時候多元化的客戶餘額，平均存款餘額增加了 2.4%，超出了預期和 8 月的趨勢。事實上，在第一季經歷了更集中的多元化之後，企業銀行業務和加州中間市場業務的本季收盤情況均與我們 3 月初的餘額一致。一如預期，無利息存款下降速度放緩，餘額降幅創近四個季度以來最低。考慮到這種適度的減少，我們的存款組合更多地受到分母增長的影響，並成功贏得了計息存款。

We continue to view our deposit mix as a competitive advantage, providing a more stable and cost-effective funding source than our peers. Industry efforts to enhance liquidity drove competition. And when combined with a higher rate environment, deposit costs increased to 290 basis points, resulting in a cumulative beta of 55%. In the recent weeks, deposit betas have been moderating, and we intend to remain nimble in our relationship pricing approach so we're able to balance customer needs with profitability targets while closely monitoring the market. With an even lower percentage of uninsured deposits, the operating nature of our accounts and an enviable customer base, we believe our strong deposit profile is now even more attractive.

我們繼續將我們的存款組合視為競爭優勢，提供比同業更穩定、更具成本效益的資金來源。產業增強流動性的努力推動了競爭。當與較高的利率環境結合時，存款成本增加至 290 個基點，導致累積貝塔值為 55%。最近幾週，存款貝塔係數一直在放緩，我們打算在關係定價方法上保持靈活，以便我們能夠在密切監控市場的同時平衡客戶需求與獲利目標。由於未保險存款的比例更低，我們帳戶的營運性質以及令人羨慕的客戶群，我們相信我們強大的存款狀況現在更具吸引力。

As shown on Slide 7, our effective liquidity strategy and strong deposit growth allowed us to absorb all of our contractual wholesale funding maturities this quarter. We expect to continue to utilize excess cash to further reduce wholesale funding in the coming quarters. Our loan-to-deposit ratio continued to trend favorably, closing at 80% for the quarter. With significant liquidity capacity and very light remaining unsecured funding maturities, we have flexibility to manage funding needs and are better positioned to prioritize high-return growth in 2024.

如投影片 7 所示，我們有效的流動性策略和強勁的存款成長使我們能夠吸收本季所有到期的合約批發融資。我們預計未來幾季將繼續利用多餘現金進一步減少批發資金。我們的貸存比率持續保持良好趨勢，本季收在 80%。憑藉強大的流動性能力和極少的剩餘無擔保融資期限，我們可以靈活地管理融資需求，並能夠更好地優先考慮 2024 年的高回報成長。

Period-end balances in our securities portfolio on Slide 8 declined $1.1 billion with paydowns, maturities and a $710 million negative mark-to-market adjustment. Although we have nominal treasury maturities remaining in 2023, larger scheduled maturities and anticipated securities repayments over the next 2 years are projected to benefit net interest income and AOCI. Altogether, we project a 25% improvement in unrealized securities losses over the next 2 years. This estimated burn off is sensitive to the dynamic rate environment and lengthen the quarter end. However, since our portfolio is pledged to enhance our liquidity position, we do not anticipate any need to sell securities and therefore, unrealized losses should not impact income.

由於還款、到期和按市值計價的 7.1 億美元的負調整，幻燈片 8 中我們的證券投資組合的期末餘額減少了 11 億美元。儘管我們的名義國債到期日為 2023 年，但未來 2 年較大的預定到期日和預期的證券償還預計將使淨利息收入和 AOCI 受益。總之，我們預期未來 2 年內未實現證券損失將減少 25%。這種估計的燒毀對動態利率環境很敏感，並會延長季末。然而，由於我們的投資組合承諾增強我們的流動性頭寸，因此我們預計不需要出售證券，因此，未實現的損失不應影響收入。

Overall, our security strategy remains unchanged as we stop reinvesting over a year ago, and we maintain our entire portfolio as available for sale, providing full transparency and management flexibility. We will continue to closely monitor final regulatory rules to consider the impact on our security strategy as we consider the need for future compliance.

總體而言，我們的安全策略保持不變，因為我們一年多前就停止了再投資，並且我們保持整個投資組合可供出售，從而提供完全的透明度和管理靈活性。我們將繼續密切關注最終的監管規則，以考慮對我們安全策略的影響，同時考慮未來合規的需要。

Turning to Slide 9. Net interest income decreased $20 million to $601 million, but outperformed expectations. We were encouraged by the lower pace of decline in net interest income as we move closer to what we believe may soon be an inflection point. Competitive deposit pricing and lower loan balances offset the benefits of loan yields and reduced wholesale funding balances. With the strategic management of our interest rate sensitivity, rates have nominally impacted income, and we remained effectively asset-neutral.

轉向幻燈片 9。淨利息收入減少 2000 萬美元，至 6.01 億美元，但超出預期。隨著我們接近我們認為可能很快就會成為拐點，淨利息收入下降速度放緩令我們感到鼓舞。有競爭力的存款定價和較低的貸款餘額抵消了貸款收益率和批發融資餘額減少的好處。透過對利率敏感度進行策略管理，利率名義上影響了收入，並且我們實際上保持了資產中性。

As shown on Slide 10, successful execution of our interest rate strategy and the current composition of our balance sheet favorably position us with minimal negative exposure to a gradual 100 basis points for 50 basis points on average decline in interest rates. By strategically managing our swap and securities portfolios, while considering balance sheet dynamics, we intend to maintain our insulated position over time. Credit quality remains very strong as highlighted on Slide 11. Following 3 consecutive quarters of net recoveries, we observed modest net charge-offs of $6 million. As expected, credit migration continued with greater concentration in businesses with more relative exposure to elevated rates and inflationary pressures, including commercial real estate, leveraged loans and technology and life sciences.

如投影片 10 所示，我們的利率策略的成功執行和資產負債表的當前組成使我們能夠將利率平均下降 50 個基點逐步下降 100 個基點的負面風險降至最低。透過策略性地管理我們的掉期和證券投資組合，同時考慮資產負債表的動態，我們打算隨著時間的推移保持我們的絕緣頭寸。正如幻燈片 11 所強調的那樣，信貸品質仍然非常強勁。在連續 3 個季度實現淨復甦後，我們觀察到 600 萬美元的淨沖銷規模不大。正如預期的那樣，信貸遷移繼續，更加集中於相對面臨利率上升和通膨壓力的企業，包括商業房地產、槓桿貸款以及技術和生命科學。

While the economic forecast improved slightly from the prior quarter, the outlook remained uncertain, which when coupled with lower loan balances, which impacted loan mix, contributed to an increase in our allowance for credit losses to 1.38% of total loans. Notably, nonaccrual loans declined for the sixth consecutive quarter and inflows to nonaccruals of $14 million also declined. Consistent with our proven credit discipline, we continue to closely monitor our portfolio and expect further migration to remain manageable.

雖然經濟預測較上一季略有改善，但前景仍不確定，再加上貸款餘額下降影響了貸款組合，導致我們的信貸損失準備金增加至貸款總額的 1.38%。值得注意的是，非應計貸款連續第六個季度下降，非應計貸款流入也減少了 1,400 萬美元。根據我們經過驗證的信用紀律，我們將繼續密切監控我們的投資組合，並預期進一步的遷移仍處於可控狀態。

On Slide 12, noninterest income of $295 million was our third highest quarter on record following our second highest quarter in 2Q. Deferred compensation, which was fully offset in expenses reduced $7 million, contributing to most of the noninterest income decline. Softer derivative activity more than offset increased loan syndication fees pressuring capital markets revenue. Fiduciary income was negatively impacted by annual fees received in the prior quarter. Movement in the rate curve benefited risk management hedge income, but will vary in the future based on the rate environment and the position of our hedging portfolio. Growth in noninterest income continues to enhance our overall revenue profile and capital efficiency over time.

在投影片 12 上，非利息收入為 2.95 億美元，是繼第二季第二高季之後有紀錄以來第三高季。遞延薪酬（完全被費用抵銷）減少了 700 萬美元，是非利息收入下降的主要原因。衍生性商品活動疲軟足以抵銷貸款銀團費用增加對資本市場收入造成的壓力。信託收入受到上一季收到的年費的負面影響。利率曲線的變動有利於風險管理對沖收入，但未來會根據利率環境和我們對沖投資組合的部位而有所不同。隨著時間的推移，非利息收入的成長繼續提高我們的整體收入狀況和資本效率。

Expenses on Slide 13 increased $20 million. Salaries and benefits were up $9 million and $8 million of that increase was in temporary labor due to staff augmentation, advancing technology and wealth management initiatives. Outside processing increased $7 million, driven by certain vendor terms that are sensitive to interest rates and our trust platform conversion. Other expenses benefited from large modernization credits from the sale of real estate, offset by increased litigation and regulatory-related expenses, consulting fees and operational losses. We believe we in the industry are in a period of calibration as we balance the profitability and risk management impacts from the first quarter disruption with strategic investments critical for future growth. We remain committed to managing an efficient organization and are assessing opportunities to offset some of these pressures so that we may continue to deliver strong returns over time.

第 13 張投影片的費用增加了 2000 萬美元。薪資和福利增加了 900 萬美元，其中 800 萬美元的增長來自臨時工，這是由於員工人數增加、技術進步和財富管理舉措所致。由於某些對利率和我們的信任平台轉換敏感的供應商條款，外部處理增加了 700 萬美元。其他費用受益於房地產銷售帶來的大量現代化信貸，但被增加的訴訟和監管相關費用、諮詢費和營運損失所抵消。我們相信，我們產業正處於調整期，因為我們要平衡第一季中斷帶來的獲利能力和風險管理影響，以及對未來成長至關重要的策略投資。我們仍然致力於管理一個高效的組織，並正在評估抵消其中一些壓力的機會，以便我們可以隨著時間的推移繼續提供強勁的回報。

Slide 14 highlights our solid capital position. Capital generation from profitability and lower loan balances drove our CET1 ratio further above our target to an estimated 10.79%. Our third quarter tangible common equity ratio of 4.62% includes a negative 502 basis point impact from AOCI. Higher rates increased underline losses in our securities and swap portfolios, driving a more negative impact from the prior quarter. Based on the September 30 forward curve, we anticipate approximately a 37% reduction in our unrealized losses by the end of 2025. Although the proposed capital changes do not apply to us based on our asset size, we favor a conservative approach to capital management and feel it is prudent to remain mindful of the regulations as they evolve.

投影片 14 凸顯了我們堅實的資本狀況。獲利能力產生的資本和較低的貸款餘額使我們的 CET1 比率進一步高於我們的目標，達到估計的 10.79%。第三季有形普通股比率為 4.62%，其中 AOCI 帶來了 502 個基點的負面影響。利率上升加劇了我們的證券和掉期投資組合的損失，從而對上一季產生了更大的負面影響。根據9 月30 日的遠期曲線，我們預計到2025 年底，未實現損失將減少約37%。儘管根據我們的資產規模，擬議的資本變更並不適用於我們，但我們傾向於採取保守的資本管理方法，並且認為在法規的演變過程中保持警惕是謹慎的做法。

Our outlook for 2023 is on Slide 15 and assumes no significant change in the economic environment. We project full year 2023 average loan growth of 7%, which would be our highest annual loan growth rate in a decade. The strategic exit of Mortgage Banker Finance and increased selectivity is expected to continue to impact fourth quarter balances. Our projected full year average deposit decline of 13% improved over prior expectations with the success in winning new deposits and bringing back customer balances. With the exception of the impact from our Mortgage Banker Finance exit and utilizing excess cash to modestly reduce the maturing broker deposits, we expect deposits to remain relatively flat in the fourth quarter. Our outlook does not assume a significant benefit from seasonality, but if we did see a return to more normal fourth quarter seasonal patterns that may provide more upside than projected.

我們對 2023 年的展望如投影片 15 所示，並假設經濟環境不會發生重大變化。我們預計 2023 年全年平均貸款成長率為 7%，這將是我們十年來最高的年度貸款成長率。 Mortgage Banker Finance 的策略性退出和選擇性的增加預計將繼續影響第四季度的餘額。我們預計全年平均存款下降 13%，比先前的預期有所改善，成功贏得了新存款並恢復了客戶餘額。除了我們退出抵押貸款銀行家金融以及利用多餘現金適度減少到期經紀人存款的影響外，我們預計第四季度存款將保持相對穩定。我們的前景並不認為季節性因素會帶來重大好處，但如果我們確實看到第四季季節性模式回歸正常，可能會帶來比預期更多的上行空間。

We still expect another record year of net interest income in 2023, growing 1% to 2% over last year's record results. Competitive deposit pricing, continued deposit mix change and a modest decline in loans are expected to drive a 5% to 6% reduction in fourth quarter net interest income. Although short-term rates are expected to remain high through year-end, our asset sensitivity position is designed to protect our profitability by minimizing the negative impact of rates when they decline. Credit quality remained very strong, and we expect continued migration to be manageable. We forecast full year and fourth quarter annualized net charge-offs to remain below our normal 20 to 40 basis point range. Noninterest income has exceeded expectations for the first 3 quarters and we project full year growth of 9% over 2022. Benefits from noncustomer income from FHLB dividends are expected to continue, but at declining rates as we repay maturing advances.

我們仍預期 2023 年淨利息收入將再創歷史新高，比去年創紀錄的業績成長 1% 至 2%。具有競爭力的存款定價、持續的存款結構變化以及貸款的小幅下降預計將導致第四季度淨利息收入減少 5% 至 6%。儘管短期利率預計到年底仍將保持高位，但我們的資產敏感性頭寸旨在透過最大限度地減少利率下降時的負面影響來保護我們的獲利能力。信貸品質仍然非常強勁，我們預計持續的移民是可控的。我們預計全年和第四季年化淨沖銷將維持在 20 至 40 個基點的正常範圍以下。前 3 季的非利息收入超出了預期，我們預計 2022 年全年將成長 9%。FHLB 股息帶來的非客戶收入預計將繼續受益，但隨著我們償還到期預付款，利率會下降。

Risk management income is expected to eventually reduce over time with rates and our swap position. For the fourth quarter, noninterest income is expected to decline 3% to 4%, largely driven by a reduction in capital markets income, considering market dynamics and increased selectivity. Noninterest expenses are expected to increase approximately 11% year-over-year with 3% of that growth attributed to higher 2023 pension expense and almost 2% due to higher FDIC expense. Fourth quarter expenses are projected to increase 3% as we observe pressures related to investments in technology and risk management in addition to third quarter modernization gains that are not expected to repeat.

預計風險管理收入最終會隨著利率和掉期部位的變化而減少。考慮到市場動態和選擇性增加，第四季度非利息收入預計將下降 3% 至 4%，這主要是由於資本市場收入減少所致。非利息支出預計將年增約 11%，其中 3% 的成長歸因於 2023 年退休金支出的增加，近 2% 的成長歸因於 FDIC 支出的增加。由於我們觀察到與技術和風險管理投資相關的壓力以及預計不會重複的第三季現代化收益，第四季費用預計將增加 3%。

While we're not offering 2024 guidance, we're mindful of the need to mitigate expense pressures as we recognize the new funding paradigm in the industry. These pressures are largely concentrated in the need for selective ongoing strategic investments in addition to investments to further enhance risk management and regulatory compliance. We're in the process of evaluating cost reduction opportunities with the objective of keeping 2024 costs only modestly higher than 2023. This assumes no change in pension expense, which will be determined largely by year-end rates and market performance.

雖然我們不提供 2024 年指導，但我們意識到，當我們認識到行業中的新融資模式時，需要減輕費用壓力。這些壓力主要集中在除了進一步加強風險管理和監管合規性的投資之外，還需要選擇性的持續策略投資。我們正在評估降低成本的機會，目標是使 2024 年的成本僅略高於 2023 年。這是假設退休金支出沒有變化，而退休金支出將主要取決於年終利率和市場表現。

Prudent expense management remains a priority as we work to balance our expense base commensurate with our earnings power. Strong profitability is expected to further grow our capital position in excess of our 10% target. Share repurchases remain paused considering the ongoing volatility within unrealized AOCI losses and subject to further regulatory clarity. In all, it was a solid quarter with strong deposits, liquidity, fee income and credit. We believe we're in great shape as we look to finish out the year and prepare for 2024. Now, I'll turn the call back to Curt.

當我們努力平衡我們的費用基礎與我們的獲利能力相稱時，審慎的費用管理仍然是我們的首要任務。強勁的獲利能力預計將進一步增強我們的資本狀況，超過 10% 的目標。考慮到未實現的 AOCI 損失的持續波動，並且需要進一步明確監管，股票回購仍處於暫停狀態。總而言之，這是一個穩健的季度，存款、流動性、費用收入和信貸都強勁。我們相信，我們正處於良好狀態，希望結束這一年並為 2024 年做準備。現在，我將把電話轉回給 Curt。

Thank you, Jim. Slide 16 summarizes our differentiated value proposition. As a leading bank for business, with strong wealth management and retail capabilities, our tenured colleagues deliver value-added industry expertise to our blue-chip customer base, while our highly regarded approach to credit has historically outperformed our peers. Complementing our commercial loan expertise, our relationship model is exemplified by a product set tailored to meet our customer needs enhancing revenue and retention. Our deposit profile has long been a strength with a focus on commercial operating deposits and a consistent retail base. With new products already in the market and additional efforts underway to expand small business and payments, we expect this core funding source to be even more compelling.

謝謝你，吉姆。投影片 16 總結了我們的差異化價值主張。作為一家領先的商業銀行，擁有強大的財富管理和零售能力，我們的終身同事為我們的藍籌客戶群提供增值的行業專業知識，而我們備受推崇的信貸方法歷來優於我們的同行。作為我們商業貸款專業知識的補充，我們的關係模型體現在為滿足客戶需求而量身定制的產品組合，從而提高收入和保留率。我們的存款概況長期以來一直是我們的優勢，專注於商業營運存款和穩定的零售基礎。隨著新產品已經上市，以及擴大小型企業和支付的額外努力正在進行中，我們預計這一核心資金來源將更加引人注目。

Finally, we remain committed to running an efficient organization and we'll be taking steps to offset expense pressures while leveraging investments designed to enhance productivity and optimize resources. Before we open the line to questions, I just want to comment on what the remarkable quarter we think this was for our company. After the significant industry disruption for the past spring, once again, our relationship-based model has proved resilient. We're very proud to see a return to deposit growth, especially when the H8 data shows declines across the industry. Our liquidity is in great shape. We repaid significant FHLB advances, and our loan-to-deposit ratio puts us in a very favorable position. Credit remains strong, and fee income continued to perform at near record levels.

最後，我們仍然致力於經營一個高效的組織，我們將採取措施抵消費用壓力，同時利用旨在提高生產力和優化資源的投資。在我們開始提問之前，我只想評論一下我們認為這對我們公司來說是一個多麼了不起的季度。在經歷了去年春天的重大行業混亂之後，我們基於關係的模式再次被證明具有彈性。我們非常自豪地看到存款恢復成長，特別是當 H8 數據顯示整個產業出現下降時。我們的流動性狀況良好。我們償還了大量 FHLB 預付款，我們的貸存比使我們處於非常有利的地位。信貸依然強勁，費用收入持續接近歷史最高水準。

During this disruptive time, we have taken care of our customers, we've won back deposits, we've added new relationships and still exceeded profitability expectations. As I shared on our prior calls throughout our almost 175-year history, we have managed through a number of challenges, and I'm confident in our ability to navigate this environment. We remain focused on our core strategy, enhancing efficiency, managing risks, protecting returns and positioning for organic growth. With the uncertain economic landscape, and being just under $86 billion in assets, I feel very good about Comerica's position. We're proud of our colleagues to the performance we delivered. We appreciate your time this morning. And now operator, we'd be happy to take some questions.

在這個顛覆性的時期，我們照顧了我們的客戶，我們贏回了存款，我們增加了新的關係，並且仍然超越了獲利預期。正如我在之前的電話會議中分享的，在我們近 175 年的歷史中，我們已經克服了許多挑戰，我對我們應對這種環境的能力充滿信心。我們仍然專注於我們的核心策略，提高效率，管理風險，保護回報並定位有機成長。由於經濟情勢不明朗，加上聯信銀行的資產略低於 860 億美元，我對聯信銀行的處境感到非常滿意。我們為我們的同事所取得的業績感到自豪。我們非常感謝您今天早上的寶貴時間。現在，接線員，我們很樂意回答一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Jon Arfstrom from RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Jon Arfstrom。

Quick question for you just on one of the last comments you made about deposit growth. You mentioned that you're adding and bringing back customer deposits. Can you talk about the extent of what you brought back and why these clients are coming back and kind of the extent of it and what's left to bring back?

就您最近對存款成長發表的評論之一向您提出一個簡短的問題。您提到您正在新增和收回客戶存款。您能談談您帶回來的東西的範圍以及這些客戶回來的原因以及它的範圍以及還剩下什麼可以帶回來嗎？

Jon, this is Peter. So yes, the bringing back clients, I would say a lot of that has occurred probably in our middle market and our businesses. So if you look back to pre-SVB, and Jim mentioned this, for example, Middle Market California, corporate banking, we're back to pre-SVB levels in those businesses. But that's true in a couple of our other businesses as well. Environmental Services has that sort of results and middle market overall, I think, has performed really well. A lot of our new deposit growth, I would say, would be in middle market, small business, business banking where we're really being aggressive on trying to attract granular deposits, small business deposits. We're making a lot of investments there in people and product. And so that's the success that we've had. I think as the year has gone on, our customer base and prospects have continued to have a lot of confidence in our name and our success. And while all the banks were challenged between March and April, I think we've proven to be pretty resilient through this.

喬恩，這是彼得。所以，是的，我想說，帶回客戶，其中許多可能發生在我們的中間市場和我們的業務中。因此，如果你回顧一下 SVB 之前的情況，Jim 提到過這一點，例如加州中部市場的企業銀行業務，那麼我們這些業務又回到了 SVB 之前的水平。但我們的其他一些業務也是如此。我認為，環境服務部門取得了這樣的成果，中間市場整體表現非常好。我想說，我們的許多新存款成長將來自中間市場、小型企業、商業銀行業務，我們確實在積極努力吸引顆粒存款、小型企業存款。我們在人員和產品方面進行了大量投資。這就是我們所取得的成功。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們的客戶群和潛在客戶對我們的名字和我們的成功仍然充滿信心。雖然所有銀行在 3 月至 4 月期間都面臨挑戰，但我認為我們已經證明在這方面具有相當的彈性。

How rate sensitive are those deposits? Or is this kind of, call it, relationship gathering?

這些存款對利率有多敏感？還是這就是所謂的關係聚會？

I think it's a little bit of both. I think some of it is providing confidence overall that occurred early in the year. But certainly, you're attracting some of it with interest-bearing rates that we're being competitive on. I mean I think we talk a little bit about what we're seeing on our deposit betas here today. But -- so there's a little bit of both. I think some of it's product investment that we've made to make it easier for our customers to manage their liquidity. But we're certainly doing what we need to do to be competitive with other banks on the interest rate environment.

我認為兩者都有一點。我認為其中一些因素提供了今年年初發生的整體信心。但當然，你會透過我們具有競爭力的利率來吸引其中的一部分。我的意思是，我認為我們今天在這裡討論一下我們在存款測試版中看到的情況。但是——所以兩者都有一點。我認為我們所做的一些產品投資是為了讓我們的客戶更容易管理他們的流動性。但我們確實正在做我們需要做的事情，以便在利率環境上與其他銀行競爭。

Okay. Jim, one for you. You kind of answered on this in terms of -- you're talking about betas moderating. And we still have this down net interest income sequentially and down margin. But the way things sit today, if the Fed is done, what's your best guess on NII inflection for the company?

好的。吉姆，給你一個。您對此的回答是—您正在談論貝塔調節。我們的淨利息收入和利潤率仍然連續下降。但按照目前的情況來看，如果聯準會採取行動，您對公司 NII 變化的最佳猜測是什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Jon. I do feel like the pathway on that inflection point is becoming a little bit more in the focus, even though there is still some degree of uncertainty and I would say right now, our base case is that we'll probably hit a trough in Q1. But whether or not that's the inflection point and again that is the base case. And more importantly, what that upward slope of the line will be from there, it really depends on a lot of things, as you know, a lot of uncertainty out there, deposit betas, if the Fed stays higher for longer, how do betas respond.

是的。謝謝，喬恩。我確實覺得這個拐點的路徑正變得越來越受到關注，儘管仍然存在一定程度的不確定性，我現在想說的是，我們的基本情況是我們可能會在第一季觸底。但無論這是否是拐點，這都是基本情況。更重要的是，這條線的向上斜率將是多少，這實際上取決於很多因素，如你所知，存在很多不確定性，存款貝塔係數，如果美聯儲在更長時間內保持較高水平，貝塔係數如何回應。

And just as importantly, if rate cuts occur, how much is there in terms of a deposit pricing lag, monetary policy. Loan volume, we do anticipate growing at some point in '24, that's certainly a variable. Loan pricing is out there, it's a variable. We think that the new funding paradigm commands wider spreads or higher yield, but it remains to be seen that the market will accept that. So a lot of variables out there, but I'll just circle back and say, at this point, we think the trough is likely to be Q1, then a little bit of a slope up from there.

同樣重要的是，如果降息，存款定價落後和貨幣政策會有多少影響。貸款量，我們確實預計在 24 年的某個時候會成長，這當然是一個變數。貸款定價是存在的，它是一個變數。我們認為新的融資模式要求更寬的利差或更高的收益率，但市場是否會接受這一點還有待觀察。因此，存在著許多變數，但我只想回頭說，在這一點上，我們認為波谷可能是第一季度，然後從那裡向上傾斜一點。

Next question is coming from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Maybe, Jim, first for you, looking at the Slide 10 rate sensitivity. When we look at -- so it looks like, obviously, you've not added any new swaps this year. When we look at the trajectory of the swaps and the outlook, is the jag from the swaps fully baked into, as we look into the third quarter or fourth quarter outlook? Incrementally, does it get worse? Or does it just level off if rates don't change? And just give us a sense, do you expect any additional changes around balance sheet mix going into next year and whether or not you're thinking about protecting eventually against rate cuts or not?

吉姆，也許，首先為您看一下 Slide 10 速率靈敏度。當我們看時，很明顯，今年您沒有添加任何新的掉期。當我們審視掉期的軌跡和前景時，當我們展望第三季或第四季的前景時，掉期的鋸齒是否完全融入其中？漸漸地，情況會變得更糟嗎？或者利率不變的話它會趨於平穩嗎？請讓我們了解一下，您是否預計明年資產負債表組合會發生任何額外變化，以及您是否考慮最終防止降息？

Yes, Ebrahim, you were cutting out a little bit, but I think I got the gist of the question. We're relatively interest-neutral as how I think of it right now. We do have some swaps that will mature over the next 5 quarters. But we also have a number of forward starters that are coming on to the books over the next 5 quarters also. And so based on the amount of forward starters that are coming on, and I think we have more forward starters coming on than maturing swaps, I don't see a need to go out and acquire any more swaps. Now we'll continue to monitor how the balance sheet responds and noninterest-bearing deposits respond, which have an impact on that sensitivity equation. But for now, I feel really comfortable that we're well prepared for a drop in rates should they occur.

是的，易卜拉欣，你刪掉了一點，但我想我明白了問題的要點。正如我現在的看法，我們相對利益中立。我們確實有一些掉期將在未來 5 個季度到期。但我們還有一些前鋒先發球員也將在接下來的 5 個季度內加入球隊。因此，根據即將上場的前鋒首發球員的數量，我認為我們的前鋒首發球員數量比到期的掉期要多，我認為沒有必要出去獲得更多的掉期。現在我們將繼續監測資產負債表的反應和無息存款的反應，這對敏感性方程式有影響。但就目前而言，我感到非常放心，因為我們已經為利率下降做好了充分準備。

And I guess, maybe just a separate question on credit quality. Maybe if we can unpack the 3 areas that you called out on CRE leveraged loans and tech. Like how do you expect the losses to evolve within those 3 buckets? And any impact on your sort of auto exposure when you think about the UAW strike? And if that gets prolonged, if we could see some negative migration or losses?

我想，也許只是關於信用品質的一個單獨的問題。也許我們可以解開您在 CRE 槓桿貸款和技術方面提出的 3 個領域。例如您預計這 3 個類別的損失將如何演變？當你想到 UAW 罷工時，你的汽車曝光率會受到什麼影響嗎？如果這種情況持續下去，我們是否會看到一些負面的移民或損失？

Yes, Ebrahim. This is Melinda. I'll just make some overarching comments around credit just to reiterate what both Curt and Jim said, we're really proud of the quarter. Credit continues to hold up really, really well. As you can see on Slide 11, we did have an increase in our criticized assets. We absolutely projected that we would continue to see normalization. That is exactly how it's playing out. The majority of the increase in criticized this quarter came from that commercial real estate book. And as of right now, we do not really see a lot of loss content in that commercial real estate portfolio. Just as a reminder, we're very heavily concentrated in construction financing with very strong borrowers and sponsors, very low loan to cost is really how we underwrite and it's predominantly multifamily and industrial.

是的，易卜拉欣。這是梅琳達。我將圍繞信貸發表一些總體評論，以重申柯特和吉姆所說的，我們對這個季度感到非常自豪。信貸繼續保持得非常非常好。正如您在幻燈片 11 中看到的，我們的批評資產確實有所增加。我們絕對預計我們將繼續看到正常化。事情就是這樣發生的。本季批評增加的大部分來自商業房地產書籍。截至目前，我們在商業房地產投資組合中並沒有真正看到很多損失內容。提醒一下，我們非常專注於建築融資，擁有非常強大的借款人和贊助商，非常低的貸款成本實際上是我們的承保方式，而且主要是多戶型和工業型。

The industrial segment is holding up incredibly well. We don't have any criticized assets in industrial. Multifamily is really where we're seeing some of the migration. And that's, again, expected just given what the rate environment has done just as well as a bit of oversupply in certain markets. So there is some rent leveling out and starting to see a little bit of rent concessions. We have no delinquencies, no past dues in this portfolio. Our sponsors are stepping up as we would have expected them to based on their historical performance, and they are covering shortfall. So I do not expect to see losses coming through the commercial real estate portfolio, but cautionary. We're continuing to build a reserve there. So our coverage ratio was up to 1.58% this quarter, which I think is up 5 or 6 basis points from last quarter.

工業領域的表現非常好。我們在工業領域沒有任何受到批評的資產。多戶住宅確實是我們看到一些移民的地方。考慮到利率環境的影響以及某些市場的供應過剩，這也是預料之中的。因此，租金趨於平穩，並開始出現一些租金優惠。我們的投資組合中沒有拖欠款項，也沒有逾期未付款項。我們的贊助商正在加緊努力，正如我們根據他們的歷史表現所期望的那樣，他們正在彌補缺口。因此，我預計商業房地產投資組合不會出現損失，但仍需謹慎。我們正在繼續在那裡建立儲備。因此，本季我們的覆蓋率達到了 1.58%，我認為比上季上升了 5 或 6 個基點。

The charge-offs that we did see this quarter, there is no concentration. It was very granular business banking, TLS, middle market, but they're very small in nature. So I'm not really seeing any themes as of right now in terms of like where loss content would come from. Levers would be one that it would be very possible that's again because of the elevated rate environment and the cumulative impact of the 500 basis point interest burden on those borrowers.

我們本季確實看到了沖銷，但並不集中。這是非常細粒度的商業銀行、TLS、中間市場，但它們本質上很小。因此，就丟失內容的來源而言，我現在還沒有真正看到任何主題。由於利率環境升高以及500個基點利息負擔對借款人的累積影響，這種情況很可能會再次出現。

Automotive production, we've got about $1 billion in automotive production loans. Obviously, we've been in this business for many, many decades, and we've been through many cycles with this customer base. I would say, overall, they are very resilient. This particular pool have been relatively stressed honestly, from 2019 on. You have the 2019 tariff, then you had COVID, then you had chip shortages and supply chain disruption, but we really haven't experienced losses in this sector. So we're watching the UAW strike very closely. The longer it goes on, there will be more impact to the portfolio. We're very well reserved, but again, we have a lot of experience managing through this, and we have a very, very strong customer base that knows how to do this. So hopefully, I hit all of your questions, but happy to follow up.

汽車生產方面，我們有大約 10 億美元的汽車生產貸款。顯然，我們從事這個行業已經有幾十年了，我們與這個客戶群一起經歷了很多周期。我想說，總的來說，他們非常有彈性。老實說，從 2019 年開始，這個特定的池子就受到了相對的壓力。 2019 年的關稅，然後是新冠疫情，然後是晶片短缺和供應鏈中斷，但我們在這個領域確實沒有經​​歷過損失。因此，我們正在密切關注 UAW 的罷工。持續的時間越長，對投資組合的影響就越大。我們非常保留，但同樣，我們在管理這方面擁有豐富的經驗，我們擁有非常非常強大的客戶群，知道如何做到這一點。希望我能回答您所有的問題，但很樂意跟進。

No, that was comprehensive.

不，那是全面的。

Next question is coming from John Pancari from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On the expense growth commentary for 2024. I know you indicated the objective is for keep expense growth modestly higher versus 2023. Can you -- it looks like the Street is out there modeling maybe 3% to 4% or so year-over-year. Can you maybe help us think about what modestly higher could mean? What's a reasonable pace of growth to assume as you're looking at the initiatives playing out that you're reviewing?

關於 2024 年費用增長的評論。我知道您表示目標是使費用增長比 2023 年保持適度較高。您可以——看起來華爾街正在建模，同比可能會增長 3% 到 4% 左右。您能否幫助我們思考適度更高代表什麼？當您考慮正在審查的舉措時，假設合理的成長速度是多少？

John, this is Curt. I'll start and then I'll ask Jim to add in some more color commentary. First of all, maybe just from a backdrop standpoint, as you and others on the call are aware, '21 and '22 were really record years of performance for our company across the board. Revenue growth, loan growth, liquidity, really a great performance from an ROE standpoint. In fact, at the end of 2022 performed in the mid-20% range on ROE and we were able to do all that and maintained a very low efficiency ratio. As Jim mentioned, and I think I did as well in my comments, I do think that we and the whole industry are in this period of transition and sort of recalibration as we're looking at lower NII really based on funding dynamics.

約翰，這是柯特。我會開始，然後我會請吉姆添加一些更多的色彩評論。首先，也許只是從背景的角度來看，正如您和其他參加電話會議的人所知，「21 和 22」確實是我們公司全面創紀錄的業績年。從股本回報率的角度來看，收入成長、貸款成長、流動性確實非常出色。事實上，到 2022 年底，ROE 的表現在 20% 左右，我們能夠做到這一切，並保持非常低的效率比。正如吉姆所提到的，我認為我在評論中也做了同樣的事情，我確實認為我們和整個行業正處於轉型和重新調整的時期，因為我們正在真正基於融資動態來降低NII。

And then the second thing I'd say here is just that there are some anomalies in our 2023 numbers. We certainly have a pension impact that others maybe not -- do not have all -- everyone has the FDIC component. So when you factor that out, the rate of growth in 2023 over '22 is not quite as high as it might appear. That said, we're committed to managing expenses and managing efficiently as a company. And as you just said, a more modest growth in expenses '23 over '24. But I want to be careful here and just caution that we have been in a new investment, our net investment focus of the company. We've been doing a lot of things in the last 2 years that we believe are driving revenue growth for us, helping us on the client acquisition side, a lot of investment in payments, treasury management, wealth management, capital markets.

我在這裡要說的第二件事是，我們 2023 年的數字有些異常。我們當然對退休金產生影響，而其他人可能沒有——也不是全部——每個人都有 FDIC 部分。因此，當你將這一因素考慮在內時，2023 年相對於 22 年的成長率並不像看起來那麼高。也就是說，作為一家公司，我們致力於管理費用和高效管理。正如您剛才所說，與 24 年相比，23 年的支出成長更為溫和。但我想在這裡要小心，只是提醒我們已經進行了新的投資，也就是我們公司的淨投資重點。在過去的兩年裡，我們做了很多事情，我們相信這些事情正在推動我們的收入成長，幫助我們獲取客戶，在支付、資金管理、財富管理、資本市場方面進行大量投資。

We've expanded into some new markets of the Southeast and Colorado, a lot of focus on small business. So we've got a lot of initiatives underway, and I want to keep our focus on those because we believe those are the right things for our company long term and once we get beyond sort of the period of time that we're in right now. But having said all that, we're going to strike the right balance, and we've proven over time in our history that we know how to manage expenses well, and we're looking at sort of what levers we have. We typically provide some guidance at our fourth quarter call. You can go into some more details at that point. But we're working on some initiatives we believe will help us reduce expenses and offset some of what we -- I think it's really sort of more near-term pressure versus longer-term pressure. Jim, what would you add to that?

我們已經擴展到東南部和科羅拉多州的一些新市場，並專注於小型企業。因此，我們正在進行許多舉措，我想繼續關注這些舉措，因為我們相信這些對於我們公司的長期發展來說是正確的事情，一旦我們超出了我們所處的正確時期現在。但話雖如此，我們將取得適當的平衡，而且隨著時間的推移，我們已經證明我們知道如何很好地管理支出，並且我們正在尋找我們擁有的槓桿。我們通常會在第四季度的電話會議上提供一些指導。此時您可以了解更多詳細資訊。但我們正在製定一些舉措，我們相信這將有助於我們減少開支並抵消一些我們——我認為這實際上是短期壓力與長期壓力之間的壓力。吉姆，你想補充什麼？

The only thing I would add is we -- to reemphasize Curt's comments, I -- we do recognize the new funding paradigm, a new profitability equation. And I do think there's a lot of work to be done, and we're committed to getting that work done. And I think we're going to make significant progress for 2024. But I don't view it as a one-and-done deal either. I think this is probably going to play out for some period of time, where we have to continue on the cost reduction initiatives to make sure that we can fund the necessary investments.

我唯一要補充的是，我們——再次強調科特的評論，我——我們確實認識到新的融資模式，新的獲利方程式。我確實認為還有很多工作要做，我們致力於完成這些工作。我認為我們將在 2024 年取得重大進展。但我也不認為這是一勞永逸的交易。我認為這可能會持續一段時間，我們必須繼續採取降低成本的舉措，以確保我們能夠為必要的投資提供資金。

So something we've done before. We know how to do, we're committed to. There was a pivot in the industry that's occurred over the last few months, and we're going to have to adjust to that. But we do recognize that. So fully committed to getting it done, and we'll be sharing more at some later point in time, as Curt said.

所以我們以前做過一些事。我們知道該怎麼做，我們也致力於這樣做。過去幾個月，該行業發生了一次轉變，我們必須對此進行調整。但我們確實認識到這一點。正如柯特所說，我們完全致力於完成它，我們將在稍後的某個時間分享更多資訊。

Okay. I appreciate all that detail. And then separately, I guess, when it comes to capital or more specifically capital deployment, maybe can you talk about what would you need to see to be willing to ramp up buybacks here? I just want to get your updated thoughts on the potential for deployment?

好的。我很欣賞所有這些細節。然後，我想，當談到資本或更具體的資本部署時，也許您可以談談您需要看到什麼才能願意在這裡加大回購力度？我只是想了解您對部署潛力的最新想法？

Yes, John. I would say the #1 factor for me is the uncertainty. That would be the uncertainty in the general economy and geopolitical events and so on, but also uncertainties as it relates to interest rates in AOCI. We did take a step up this quarter as the whole industry did. And I'd like to see a better line of sight in terms of where that's going before we turn on share repurchase. I would say capital rules are something we're watching also. I would say that's more of a secondary factor. We're well below $100 billion. But we do want to be prepared in case things changed in the economy with whether it be monetary policy or anything else that may catapult us towards $100 billion faster than we're expecting. But the uncertainty is really the key factor there.

是的，約翰。我想說對我來說第一大因素是不確定性。這將是整體經濟和地緣政治事件等的不確定性，也包括與 AOCI 利率相關的不確定性。正如整個行業一樣，本季我們確實取得了進步。在我們開啟股票回購之前，我希望對未來的發展有一個更好的認識。我想說，我們也在關注資本規則。我想說這更多的是次要因素。我們的資金遠低於 1000 億美元。但我們確實希望做好準備，以防經濟發生變化，無論是貨幣政策還是其他任何可能使我們以比我們預期更快的速度邁向 1000 億美元的目標。但不確定性確實是關鍵因素。

I will note that even without share repurchase, we do have one of the stronger common dividends in the industry. So we do feel like we're returning capital to shareholders. But I would love to buy at these prices also. We think the share price is a fantastic buy and very attractive. The idea of buying back those shares is very attractive. But certainly, for this year, we're on pause, and then we'll assess the uncertainty factor as we get into 2024.

我要指出的是，即使沒有股票回購，我們也確實擁有業內最強的普通股息之一。所以我們確實覺得我們正在向股東返還資本。但我也想以這些價格購買。我們認為該股價非常值得買入，而且非常有吸引力。回購這些股票的想法非常有吸引力。但當然，今年我們會暫停，然後在進入 2024 年時我們將評估不確定性因素。

Jim, I would add that while we have been cautious on RWA and managing down some aspects of our loan portfolio, that's not sort of our long-term perspective, our long-term objective. We do want to grow again as a company, and we see opportunities to grow really based on sort of how the economy plays out as we get into 2024. And that's always the first place we want to use our capital is around the loan growth equation. And then secondly, John, I think you are aware that we've done a good job over the course of the last 3 or 4 years of leveraging buybacks. And so we do think it's an important tool. But again, sort of balancing between the 2 will be really important.

吉姆，我想補充一點，雖然我們對 RWA 持謹慎態度，並控制了貸款組合的某些方面，但這不是我們的長期觀點、我們的長期目標。作為一家公司，我們確實希望再次實現成長，而且我們看到的成長機會實際上取決於進入 2024 年時經濟的表現。而我們想要使用資本的第一個地方始終是圍繞貸款成長方程式。其次，約翰，我想你知道我們在過去三、四年的槓桿回購過程中做得很好。所以我們確實認為這是一個重要的工具。但同樣，兩者之間的平衡也非常重要。

Next question is coming from Steven Alexopoulos from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂文·阿萊克索普洛斯。

So I want to go back to your response to Jon Arfstrom. His question where you said NII would likely bottom in the first quarter. Maybe, Jim, from a NIM view, do you see NIM following the same trajectory maybe stepping down in 4Q than 1Q and then we bottom there?

所以我想回到你對喬恩·阿夫斯特羅姆的回應。他的問題是，您所說的 NII 可能會在第一季觸底。也許，吉姆，從 NIM 的角度來看，您是否認為 NIM 遵循相同的軌跡，可能會在第四季度比第一季下降，然後我們就觸底？

Steve, thanks for the question. I mean, as always, I'll put my disclaimer out there that we're not being NIM percentage [sharp]. The lumpiness of our commercial business model often results in a NIM percentage that doesn't necessarily correlate with income. So one that I'm always hesitant to comment on. I'll just say in general that I do expect NIM percentage to improve as we bring down cash and purchase funds over the next quarter. So I do think we'll see some positive traction there. And I do think it's fair to -- in a very general way to say if we see net interest income troughing in Q1. That's slightly the trough for NIM also. So we'll continue to keep an eye on that. But that's what I would say, big picture.

史蒂夫，謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，一如既往，我會發表免責聲明，表明我們的 NIM 百分比[尖銳]。我們的商業模式的不穩定性常常會導致淨利差百分比與收入不一定相關。所以我總是猶豫是否要發表評論。我只是籠統地說，隨著我們在下個季度減少現金和購買資金，我確實預計淨利差百分比會有所改善。所以我確實認為我們會在那裡看到一些積極的推動力。我確實認為，以一種非常籠統的方式來說，如果我們看到第一季淨利息收入觸底，這是公平的。這也是 NIM 的低谷。因此我們將繼續關注此事。但這就是我要說的，大局觀。

And then, Jim, given the comments that you're fairly neutral now in terms of ALCO positioning, if rates stay higher for longer, I know you don't like commenting on this, but I'm going to ask you anyway. Directionally speaking, if we bought them in the first quarter, how do you think we trend through the year assuming no cuts, assuming that the Fed just stays really on hold? Do you think directionally NIM trends favorably through the year?

然後，吉姆，鑑於您現在在 ALCO 定位方面相當中立的評論，如果利率在較長時間內保持較高水平，我知道您不喜歡對此發表評論，但無論如何我都會問您。從方向上來說，如果我們在第一季購買它們，假設不降息，假設聯準會真的按兵不動，你認為我們全年的趨勢如何？您認為全年淨利差趨勢是否有利？

That's going to depend on some of those variables that I mentioned early on, loan growth, loan spread pricing, those are all big factors. But I do think that if we do stay higher for longer and QT continues, that does have the potential to put pressure on NIM. It's not our base case. It's not what the forward curve is saying, higher for longer, but we haven't been in the situation in a long time with an economy and an industry. So it's really hard to say, but we will see some continued deposit pressures if we do stay higher for longer, I believe.

這將取決於我之前提到的一些變量，貸款成長、貸款利差定價，這些都是重要因素。但我確實認為，如果我們確實長時間保持較高水平並且 QT 繼續下去，那確實有可能給 NIM 帶來壓力。這不是我們的基本情況。這並不是遠期曲線所說的那樣，更高的時間更長，但我們的經濟和產業已經很久沒有遇到這種情況了。所以這真的很難說，但我相信，如果我們確實保持較高水平更長的時間，我們將看到一些持續的存款壓力。

Jim, I do think that we have been very successful on the overall pricing side, on the lending side, obviously, taking into account sort of full relationships and doing the right thing by our customers. And so I think there's a chance for us to offset some of that just by pricing discipline and potentially long growth in 2024.

吉姆，我確實認為我們在整體定價方面非常成功，在貸款方面，顯然，考慮到全面的關係並讓我們的客戶做正確的事情。因此，我認為我們有機會透過定價紀律和 2024 年潛在的長期成長來抵消部分影響。

Yes. As I mentioned earlier, thanks, Curt. I mean we do feel like we have the right to ask for the proper pricing relative to our cost of funds. And to the extent there is less liquidity in the economy. If the deposit pricing cost of funding goes up, I would expect to recover a piece of that or perhaps all of it in our pricing equation. But again, we'll see what the market allows and what we can demand from it.

是的。正如我之前提到的，謝謝，柯特。我的意思是，我們確實覺得我們有權要求相對於我們的資金成本的適當定價。而且經濟中的流動性也有所減少。如果融資的存款定價成本上升，我希望在我們的定價方程中收回其中的一部分或全部。但同樣，我們將看看市場允許什麼以及我們可以從中要求什麼。

I know one of the factors is noninterest-bearing levels, right, which were down again this quarter. But I'm curious, are you seeing customers still optimize and move balances out in search for higher yield? Or is it just back to spending cash?

我知道因素之一是無息水平，對吧，本季再次下降。但我很好奇，您是否看到客戶仍在優化並轉移餘額尋求更高的收益？還是又回到花錢的時代了？

Steven, that's actually one of the areas of encouragement to me. I mentioned the deposit betas have really moderated in recent weeks. I would also say the same is true of noninterest-bearing deposits. If I look month by month since the disruption in the spring, the decline in noninterest-bearing deposits has slowed up every month and it was essentially flat from August to September. I'm not saying that it will always continue to be flat. But I do think that as corporate treasurers manage their own cash levels, they're starting to hit that floor where they need a certain amount of cash to run their businesses. And we're really seeing a slow up as a result.

史蒂文，這其實是對我鼓勵的領域之一。我提到最近幾週存款貝塔值確實有所放緩。我還想說，無利息存款也是。如果從春季中斷以來的逐月來看，無息存款的下降速度逐月放緩，8月至9月基本持平。我並不是說它會永遠保持平坦。但我確實認為，隨著企業財務主管管理自己的現金水平，他們開始達到需要一定數量的現金來經營業務的水平。結果我們確實看到了放緩。

We think they've squeezed that orange about as much as they can. Now could there be a little bit more to go? Yes, it's possible. But we do think that the trend is our friend in this case, and we're really seeing a flattening out of the noninterest-bearing decline. So I don't see a lot of decline occurring at this point in time, probably a little bit more, but I've seen -- I think we're well past the worst of it.

我們認為他們已經盡可能地榨柳橙了。現在還有更多的事情要做嗎？是的，這是可能的。但我們確實認為，在這種情況下，趨勢是我們的朋友，而且我們確實看到無利息下降趨於平緩。因此，我認為目前不會出現大量下降，可能會更多一些，但我已經看到 - 我認為我們已經度過了最糟糕的時期。

If I could squeeze one final one in. I hear all the comments around moderating expense growth in 2024. But if we step out, if we look at this quarter, revenue is down 9% year-over-year, expenses were up 11% year-over-year. We know why, but earnings are down 30%. As you guys think about the next year, are there levers to pull to start generating more meaningful operating leverage? Or is it just a tough environment, you have to just wait for the yield curve to approve other things. Or do you sense we need to do more here and there's other levers we could pull to get at least earnings heading in a more favorable direction?

如果我能擠出最後一點的話。我聽到了所有關於 2024 年支出增長放緩的評論。但如果我們走出去，看看本季度，收入同比下降 9%，支出增長 11%一年又一年。我們知道原因，但收益下降了 30%。當你們思考明年時，是否有槓桿可以開始產生更有意義的營運槓桿？或者只是一個艱難的環境，你必須等待殖利率曲線來批准其他事情。或者您認為我們需要在這裡做更多的事情，並且我們可以利用其他槓桿來至少使收益朝著更有利的方向發展？

Well, Steven, I would just say, in general, as a company, we're always committed to delivering positive operating leverage. Short term, that's a bit more challenging as you just outlined for us for all the reasons that we know. But 2 things there. One, first and foremost, we're focused on top line revenue growth. And we believe we've got great momentum there with the things I outlined to you previously, whether it's product expansion and capabilities, treasury management, capital markets, et cetera. We continue to add talent in many of our areas. We just had a very successful lift out of a wealth management team in Southern California and the expansion into the Southeast. But also just adding depth in the existing markets that we operate in. And I do believe that we will continue to drive fee income and that loan growth will return for us in 2024. We'll provide more guidance at our fourth quarter earnings call. So we're focused there on the revenue side.

好吧，史蒂文，我只想說，總的來說，作為一家公司，我們始終致力於提供積極的營運槓桿。短期來看，這更具挑戰性，因為您剛剛為我們概述了我們所知道的所有原因。但有兩件事。一，首先也是最重要的，我們專注於營收成長。我們相信，透過我之前向您概述的事情，無論是產品擴展和能力、財務管理、資本市場等等，我們都取得了巨大的動力。我們繼續在許多領域增加人才。我們剛剛非常成功地脫離了南加州的財富管理團隊，並向東南方擴張。但也只是增加了我們經營的現有市場的深度。我確實相信我們將繼續推動費用收入，貸款成長將在 2024 年回歸。我們將在第四季度的財報電話會議上提供更多指導。所以我們關注的是收入方面。

And then secondly, we're going to be focused on the expenses, and we've done that historically well as a company, and we're going to be careful to strike the right balance between sort of short-term expense management and sort of the longer-term investment in the company. So I can't promise sort of when did that sort of positive operating leverage equation tilt, but it's our objective, and we're very focused on delivering positive operating leverage for the company and for our investors long term.

其次，我們將重點放在費用，作為一家公司，我們在這方面做得很好，我們將小心翼翼地在短期費用管理和短期費用管理之間取得適當的平衡。對公司的長期投資。因此，我無法保證這種正營運槓桿等式何時會傾斜，但這是我們的目標，我們非常專注於為公司和投資者提供長期的正營運槓桿。

Your next question is coming from Chris McGratty from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

Jim or Curt, maybe on the $100 billion going back to that, you are about 15% below that. How are you thinking, I guess, within the budget for expenses? Like what needs to be spent to be compliant for $100 billion? I guess what's already been spent that you could kind of grandfather in? And then also, can you remind us on the pension expense, I think it's tied to the 10-year and just remind us the magnitude of how you're thinking about it? This year was a big year.

Jim 或 Curt，也許在 1000 億美元的基礎上，你的收入要低 15% 左右。我想，在費用預算之內，你覺得怎麼樣？例如需要花多少錢才能達到 1000 億美元的合規性？我猜你已經花掉了哪些錢，可以用來當爺爺了？另外，您能否提醒我們有關退休金支出的問題，我認為它與 10 年期掛鉤，並提醒我們您如何考慮它的規模？今年是重要的一年。

Chris, I'm going to take the beginning of that question on the $100 billion target, and I'll let Jim address the pension issue. We -- obviously with the significant buildup in deposits, we were getting closer to the $100 billion mark, which we really never thought was maybe a sustainable situation that we had a lot of buildup in liquidity because of sort of stimulus and monetary policy overall. So that has pulled down as we've moderated some on the RWA side of the equation. We're very comfortable right now below that $100 billion mark at $86 billion. And if you just look at organic growth, which has always been our focus as a company, it would take us some time, we think, to get back over the $100 billion mark.

克里斯，我將從 1000 億美元目標開始這個問題，然後我將讓吉姆解決退休金問題。顯然，隨著存款的顯著增加，我們越來越接近1000 億美元大關，我們真的從未想過這可能是一種可持續的情況，因為整體刺激措施和貨幣政策導致流動性大量增加。因此，隨著我們在等式的 RWA 方面進行了一些調整，這一點已經下降。目前我們對低於 1000 億美元大關（860 億美元）感到非常滿意。如果你只看有機成長（這一直是我們作為一家公司的關注重點），我們認為，我們需要一些時間才能回到 1000 億美元大關。

So it's important that we're positioned to be over $100 million in terms of regulatory compliance and what would be required to be a Category 4 bank. And we've had a project and initiatives underway for some time. We're probably 40%, 50% through sort of what would be necessary for us to comply in terms of the technology and sort of infrastructure to support that. But we've got some time to sort of make that happen. But it is one of the expenses that has applied some additional expense pressure for us sort of longer term.

因此，重要的是，我們在監管合規性和成為 4 類銀行的要求方面的投入超過 1 億美元。我們的項目和舉措已經進行了一段時間。我們可能已經完成了 40%、50% 的工作，這對於我們在技術和基礎設施方面的遵守是必要的。但我們還有一些時間來實現這一目標。但這是為我們帶來一些長期額外支出壓力的支出之一。

I made some comments previously that I think at one of the investor conference is just around M&A. And just -- maybe just to be clear there, nothing has changed for us in that equation. Getting close to $100 billion really does not change whether we would do M&A or not. We're focused first and foremost, as I said earlier, organic growth. It's -- if the deal came along, we still had to make great strategic sense for us. And again, we think we can sort of manage where we're today. We've got some time to sort of evaluate the landscape longer term, but I don't anticipate any sort of pressure on the $100 billion level, at least for the foreseeable next couple of years.

我之前發表過一些評論，我認為其中一場投資者會議就是圍繞併購展開的。只是 - 也許只是為了澄清這一點，對我們來說，這個等式沒有任何改變。接近 1000 億美元確實不會改變我們是否進行併購。正如我之前所說，我們首先關注的是有機成長。如果這筆交易達成，我們仍然必須具有重大的戰略意義。再說一次，我們認為我們可以管理我們今天的處境。我們有一些時間來評估長期形勢，但我預計 1000 億美元的水平不會受到任何壓力，至少在可預見的未來幾年內是如此。

Yes. And I might take that even a step further, Chris, you mentioned 15% below. We do plan on repaying more debt in the fourth quarter. We'll get the full quarter effect of what we did in the third quarter. So we do see cash and purchase funds coming down another $4 billion in the fourth quarter on average. On a lending basis, more like probably $1.5 billion, so we're well below the $100 billion. Now as AOCI comes back, and we make -- we have loan growth, we'll start moving back towards $100 billion. But as Curt said, we're probably a few years away from that. And I'll just say that in terms of what we're focused on in terms of complying with $100 billion as it might impact expenses, we're only focused on that subsection of the requirements that potentially take more than a couple of years to make sure you're comfortable with.

是的。我可能會更進一步，克里斯，你在下面提到了 15%。我們確實計劃在第四季度償還更多債務。我們將獲得第三季所做工作的完整季度效果。因此，我們確實看到第四季現金和採購資金平均再減少 40 億美元。以貸款計算，大概是 15 億美元，所以我們遠低於 1000 億美元。現在，隨著 AOCI 的回歸，我們的貸款有所成長，我們將開始朝 1000 億美元的目標邁進。但正如柯特所說，我們可能還需要幾年的時間才能實現這一目標。我只想說，就我們在遵守 1000 億美元方面的重點而言，因為這可能會影響支出，我們只關注可能需要幾年以上時間才能完成的要求的那一部分。確保您感到舒適。

So those things that have a longer tail to them, we're focused on working on and that will be one of the expense pressures we have to offset, but we don't feel like we need to jump into it entirely in terms of getting ready at this point in time. A lot of the requirements, we can wait until we're a little bit closer to $100 billion. In terms of the pension question, pension accounting is one of our favorite topics and a great one to bottle through. A lot of variables there, but interest rates are the key one, market performance in general, but interest rates more specifically. If you go back to our K, we do have a sensitivity in there that shows that for every 25 bps of rate change, the 10-year is a pretty good proxy for liability and the assets we have offsetting that.

因此，那些有較長尾巴的事情，我們專注於工作，這將是我們必須抵消的費用壓力之一，但我們認為我們不需要完全投入其中此時已準備就緒。對於許多需求，我們可以等到接近 1000 億美元時再提出。就退休金問題而言，退休金會計是我們最喜歡的話題之一，也是一個值得深思熟慮的話題。變數很多，但利率是關鍵，市場表現一般，但利率更具體。如果你回到我們的 K，我們確實有一個敏感性，表明利率每變化 25 個基點，10 年期債券就可以很好地代表負債和我們抵消負債的資產。

Every 25 bps translates to about $11 million of expense, so obviously, we strike that in 12/31. There's been a big step up since then. But I would also say there are other variables that are likely to make us come in below what that sensitivity would suggest. Most importantly, we have a number of amortized credits from past actuarial assumptions that we outperformed on. And so we will perform that sensitivity, but a lot of variables involved there. So that's something we'll have more clarity on as we approach the end of the year.

每 25 個基點相當於約 1,100 萬美元的支出，因此顯然，我們在 12 月 31 日實現了這一目標。從那時起，已經有了很大的進步。但我還要說，還有其他變數可能會使我們的結果低於敏感度所建議的水平。最重要的是，我們有一些來自過去精算假設的攤銷信用，我們的表現優於其他公司。因此，我們將執行這種敏感性，但其中涉及許多變數。因此，隨著年底的臨近，我們將更加清楚地了解這一點。

That's really helpful. The -- just one final one in terms of the targeted, I guess, level of cash and bonds on the balance sheet. You haven't reinvested the bonds in the last year. Remind us that either as a percentage of earning assets or maybe an absolute level where you could ultimately see those levels shrinking down to?

這真的很有幫助。我猜，這只是資產負債表上現金和債券目標水準的最後一項。去年您沒有對債券進行再投資。提醒我們，無論是作為獲利資產的百分比，還是最終可以看到這些水準縮小到的絕對水準？

Yes, that's going to depend on just the overall composition of the balance sheet, how close we're to $100 billion as it might relate to liquidity rules and debt requirements. But I would see us moving closer towards $14 billion, $15 billion securities, probably closer to $14 billion. So we have ways to go. And what that might suggest is we're likely not going to be buying securities at least for the next couple of years.

是的，這將取決於資產負債表的整體組成，我們離 1000 億美元有多近，因為它可能與流動性規則和債務要求有關。但我認為我們正在朝著 140 億美元、150 億美元的證券邁進，很可能接近 140 億美元。所以我們還有路要走。這可能表明我們至少在未來幾年內可能不會購買證券。

Your next question is coming from Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley.

你們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞。

I wanted to follow up on your comments on AOCI. I mean I think you noted that you haven't added any swaps on the books this year. Given that the tenure is up another 50 basis points this quarter, how are you thinking about managing AOCI risk here?

我想跟進您對 AOCI 的評論。我的意思是，我認為您注意到今年您沒有在賬簿上添加任何交換。鑑於本季任期又增加了 50 個基點，您如何考慮管理 AOCI 風險？

Well, at this point, we don't feel like we have to do anything synthetically to manage it. We're okay with where we're at based on the burn off that we see over the next couple of years and really more importantly, the burn off over the next 5 years as we potentially become a category for a bank. And so at this point in time, we're comfortable with where we're at. We do think that as we move closer towards Category 4, we won't consider modifying our strategies to maybe shorten the duration of the securities, whether that be with what we purchased or doing something synthetically. But for the time being, we don't feel compelled to do anything. We're comfortable with the burn off that we see over the next few years.

嗯，在這一點上，我們不覺得我們必須採取任何綜合措施來管理它。根據我們在未來幾年看到的燒錢情況，更重要的是，未來 5 年的燒錢情況，我們對目前的情況感到滿意，因為我們有可能成為銀行的一個類別。所以在這個時候，我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意。我們確實認為，當我們接近第四類時，我們不會考慮修改我們的策略來縮短證券的期限，無論是我們購買的還是綜合做的事情。但目前，我們並不覺得有必要做任何事。我們對未來幾年看到的燒毀感到滿意。

Got it. So as there's clearly some volatility on the long end of the curve, does it make sense to use the same DV01 for AOCI that you saw this quarter and then apply to changes in the 10-year in future quarters to figure out the AOCI risk there?

知道了。因此，由於曲線的長端明顯存在一些波動，因此對本季看到的 AOCI 使用相同的 DV01，然後應用於未來幾季 10 年的變化來計算那裡的 AOCI 風險是否有意義？

I think that's a pretty good proxy. Yes, you can see a little bit of movement one way or the other, but I think it's a good proxy for future rate changes.

我認為這是一個非常好的代理商。是的，您可以以某種方式看到一點變動，但我認為這是未來利率變化的一個很好的指標。

Got it. And then maybe finally, just on the -- I think you mentioned a 37% pull to par on unrealized losses over the next couple of years. How is that impacted by the rate environment?

知道了。也許最後，我想你提到了未來幾年未實現損失將達到 37% 的水平。利率環境對其有何影響？

Well, that 37% considers the curve as it stands today, so not just spot rates, but where the curve is. So to the extent the entire curve shifts up or down, that will have an impact on that burn off. But for now, this obviously contemplates the entire spectrum of the curve.

好吧，那 37% 的人考慮的是目前的曲線，所以不僅僅是即期匯率，還有曲線在哪裡。因此，整個曲線向上或向下移動的程度，都會對燃燒產生影響。但就目前而言，這顯然考慮了曲線的整個範圍。

And with that being said if the curve moves higher than the pull to par, it will be longer and if it moves lower than pull to par, it will be sooner?

話雖這麼說，如果曲線移動高於拉桿標準，它會更長，如果它移動低於拉桿標準，它會更快？

That's right. And we do have a sensitivity on that on Slide 14 in the bottom right. So you can see what a 100 bp movement would do one way or the other.

這是正確的。我們確實對右下角幻燈片 14 上的這一點很敏感。因此，您可以看到 100 bp 的運動會以一種或另一種方式產生什麼作用。

Next question today is coming from Brody Preston from UBS.

今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布羅迪普雷斯頓。

I just wanted to ask, could you give us a reminder -- I think it was the GEAR Up initiative that you had in the past. Could you remind me what the -- if you happen to know what the total kind of, I guess, expenses you kind of took out of the run rate or kind of like I'm just trying to remember what you did in the past.

我只是想問，您能否給我們一個提醒——我認為這是您過去發起的 GEAR Up 倡議。你能提醒我嗎——如果你碰巧知道你從運行率中扣除的總費用是多少，或者我只是想記住你過去做了什麼。

Brody, I would not go back through all that detail with you. I might just say that in general, that Europe was a combination of expenses, but also some revenue enhancement opportunities that we focused on. Some of that was around capabilities. Some of it was around pricing strategies, et cetera. And it was not just a single year impact. It was an impact that we probably put in place to improve overall efficiency. And what was, at that point, a very low rate environment.

布羅迪，我不會和你一起回顧所有這些細節。我可能只是說，總的來說，歐洲是支出的組合，但也是我們關注的一些增加收入的機會。其中一些與能力有關。其中一些是圍繞定價策略等。這不僅是一年的影響。我們可能會採取這種影響來提高整體效率。當時的利率環境非常低。

So if you're looking at sort of applicability to today, I mean, we're a bigger company in terms of our overall revenue base as an organization and our expense base as well. And so we're going to think about this in a thoughtful way on a go forward if you're kind of driving to sort of what expense reductions we might look at and look at things that really minimize anything associated with revenue and customers and really try to focus on areas, real estate, for our technology spend that we might be more careful with, vacancy rates in terms of head count, et cetera. And we'll have more potentially share as we get into the outlook for 2024.

因此，如果您正在考慮今天的適用性，我的意思是，就我們作為一個組織的整體收入基礎和我們的支出基礎而言，我們是一家更大的公司。因此，如果您想推動我們可能考慮的費用削減，並考慮真正最大限度地減少與收入和客戶相關的任何事情，並且確實嘗試重點關注領域、房地產、我們可能會更加謹慎的技術支出、人員空缺率等。當我們展望 2024 年時，我們將獲得更多潛在份額。

Got it. Okay. I wanted to ask a couple of questions to Melinda. Melinda, you said -- you talked a little bit about the multifamily and the migration there, but the sponsors have kind of stepped up to cover any shortfalls as -- when you say shortfalls, do you mean like the multifamily properties that are falling below 1 debt service coverage ratio?

知道了。好的。我想問梅琳達幾個問題。梅琳達，你說——你談了一些關於多戶家庭和那裡的移民的問題，但贊助商已經採取了一些措施來彌補任何短缺，因為——當你說短缺時，你的意思是像多戶住宅房產跌落到以下水準嗎？1 償債覆蓋率？

It could be, they are in the process of being leased up and so they're behind schedule. But the biggest driver right now in the multifamily space in terms of any kind of a shortfall is really because of the rising rate environment. The majority of the loans are floating rate, so they've been absorbing the rate increase of 500 basis points over the last 4, 5 quarters. And so there could be a shortfall in an interest reserve that we require during the construction phase or a debt service coverage during the lease-up phase as those are going into stabilization.

可能是，他們正在出租，所以他們落後於計劃。但就任何形式的短缺而言，目前多戶住宅領域最大的驅動因素實際上是由於利率上升的環境。大多數貸款都是浮動利率，因此在過去的四、五個季度中它們已經吸收了500個基點的升息。因此，我們在建設階段所需的利息準備金或租賃階段的償債能力可能會短缺，因為這些都已進入穩定階段。

Got it. Are there any markets that you look at across your footprint and say maybe there's new supply coming on that might exacerbate any of these issues? Like any that come to mind in particular?

知道了。您在您的足跡中是否關注過任何市場，並表示可能出現新的供應可能會加劇這些問題？就像特別想到的？

Yes. I think the market where we've seen the most challenge in the most migration, again, reminder, though, that the migration has been very manageable and criticized loans in the commercial real estate book are still relatively low. But the migration is really concentrated in the California, some of the submarkets, Northern California being the most impacted at this point and then Southern California. So we're watching those really, really closely.

是的。我認為我們在移民最多的市場中看到了最大的挑戰，不過，再次提醒大家，移民是非常容易管理的，並且商業房地產中受到批評的貸款仍然相對較低。但移民實際上集中在加州的一些子市場，北加州目前受到的影響最大，然後是南加州。所以我們正在非常非常密切地關注這些。

And again, the customer base there and sponsor base, I would consider exceptionally strong and we have tenured colleagues that know how to manage through this. So we feel really good about our strategy there. We feel really good about the product set. But multifamily has had a tremendous amount of supply come to market, and there's more to come. So I expect that we'll continue to see some modest level of migration in that portfolio.

再說一次，我認為那裡的客戶群和贊助商基礎非常強大，我們有知道如何管理這個問題的終身同事。所以我們對我們在那裡的策略感到非常滿意。我們對這套產品感覺非常好。但多戶型住宅已經有大量的供應進入市場，而且還會有更多的供應。因此，我預計我們將繼續看到該投資組合中出現一定程度的遷移。

Got it. Okay. And I know it's a very small portfolio for you guys. Do you happen to have what the reserve is on the office portfolio at this point?

知道了。好的。我知道這對你們來說是一個非常小的投資組合。此時您的辦公室投資組合中是否有足夠的儲備？

We don't have a reserve specifically on the asset classes, but we do have coverage ratio for the commercial real estate book as a whole and it's 1.58%.

我們沒有專門針對資產類別的準備金，但我們確實對整個商業地產帳面有覆蓋率，為1.58%。

Okay. Got it. And Jim, I just wanted to follow up on the swap question, the swap that you said you've got forward starting coming on that will outpace anything that's maturing. That's all reflected in the '24 kind of walk up on the swaps book.

好的。知道了。吉姆，我只是想跟進掉期問題，你說你已經開始進行的掉期將超過任何正在成熟的項目。這一切都反映在 24 世紀掉期交易簿上的情況。

Absolutely. It is forward starting.

絕對地。是向前出發的。

Okay. Great. I just wanted to make sure. And then just last one for you. For -- I know it's a smaller portion of the book, but for the true fixed portion, not the swapped floating portion. Can you walk us through what the maturity schedule looks like over the next 12 months and kind of what the yields are that are rolling off versus what current origination yields are right now?

好的。偉大的。我只是想確定一下。最後一張給你。對於——我知道這是本書的一小部分，但對於真正的固定部分，而不是交換的浮動部分。您能否向我們介紹未來 12 個月的到期時間表以及滾動收益率與當前初始收益率的對比情況？

Yes, it's really a relatively small part of our book, and I don't see it having a big impact on yields next year. I think somewhere in the appendix, you'd surmise fixed-rate loans organically speaking are about 8% of our book and they have pretty long maturities out to 12 years on average. So you don't see a lot come up for repricing every year. We might see $300 million come up in this -- in '24 to use a kind of an average. And they are priced below our current loan yield. So there is some opportunity there. But I wouldn't see fixed rate with pricing having more than a couple of bps of impact on our loan yields next year. But there is a little bit of -- there's such a favorable impact.

是的，這確實是我們書中相對較小的一部分，我認為它不會對明年的收益率產生重大影響。我認為在附錄中的某個地方，您可能會猜測固定利率貸款有機地占我們帳簿的 8% 左右，而且它們的期限相當長，平均為 12 年。因此，您每年不會看到太多重新定價的情況​​。如果使用某種平均值的話，24 年我們可能會看到 3 億美元。它們的定價低於我們當前的貸款收益率。所以那裡有一些機會。但我認為固定利率定價對明年貸款收益率的影響不會超過幾個基點。但有一點——有如此有利的影響。

Do you have any security maturities that are lumpy and lower yielding at any point in the next 12 months?

您是否有任何到期日不穩定且收益率在未來 12 個月內較低的證券？

We have a normal, what I'll consider to be smooth roll-off of MBS', and we do have some treasuries maturing over the next 15 months, but I would say those aren't necessarily lumpy. We see a little bit in most quarters. So we obviously are going to benefit in 2024 from securities maturing as we redeploy that either into cash, earning much higher yields, or avoiding purchase funds. So net-net, we will see a benefit from fixed asset repricing next year, a tiny bit from loans. We'll certainly get a nice lift up from securities, fixed rate swaps actually go the other direction, but the net benefit will be favorable in 2024.

我們有一個正常的、我認為是平滑的 MBS 滾存，而且我們確實有一些國債將在未來 15 個月內到期，但我想說這些並不一定是不穩定的。我們在大多數季度都看到了一些。因此，我們顯然將在 2024 年從到期的證券中受益，因為我們將其重新部署為現金，賺取更高的收益率，或避免購買資金。因此，我們將看到明年固定資產重新定價的好處，其中有一點來自貸款。我們肯定會從證券中得到很好的提振，固定利率掉期實際上是相反的方向，但 2024 年的淨收益將是有利的。

Next question is coming from Ken Usdin from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

I just -- I wanted to ask a question on the loan book. On the business line basis, you're not under any kind of like dining, so to speak. But -- and after you got out of mortgage banker this year, just -- there's a couple of these lines that are getting a little smaller over time like tech and life sciences and equity fund. Just wanted to ask like how much of that is environmental and do you envision taking a harder look at any of the loan categories that you have in terms of what you're thinking about in terms of future growth opportunities?

我只是——我想問一個關於貸款簿的問題。可以這麼說，就業務範圍而言，您不屬於任何類型的餐飲業務。但是，在你今年離開抵押貸款銀行家之後，隨著時間的推移，有一些行業的規模正在變得越來越小，例如科技、生命科學和股票基金。只是想問一下，其中有多少是環境因素，您是否打算更仔細地審視您所擁有的任何貸款類別，以了解您對未來成長機會的看法？

Ken, this is Peter. Yes, we've got some of our businesses that have kind of continued to drift down this quarter and quite candidly, probably will into the fourth quarter and maybe even in the first quarter. But we don't really see any additional changes to the lines of business that we're in. We do feel really good about the portfolio on a go-forward basis. I do think that in the environment with increased expectations around profitability and pricing, and I'm just sort of managing our balance sheet. Some businesses are impacted more than others, but as we get into next year, we'll try to give a little more guidance on what we think loan outlook looks like for '24. But I suspect a few of these businesses that you've kind of seen creep down here as of late, probably be another quarter or 2 before we start to go the other direction.

肯，這是彼得。是的，我們的一些業務在本季度繼續下滑，坦白說，可能會持續到第四季度，甚至第一季。但我們確實沒有看到我們所處的業務線有任何額外的變化。我們確實對未來的投資組合感覺非常好。我確實認為，在對獲利能力和定價的期望不斷提高的環境下，我只是在管理我們的資產負債表。有些企業受到的影響比其他企業更大，但隨著我們進入明年，我們將嘗試就我們認為的 24 年貸款前景提供更多指導。但我懷疑您最近看到的一些業務正在悄悄蔓延，可能還要再過一兩個季度，我們才會開始走向另一個方向。

Overall, with our general portfolio, middle market, business banking, small business, our pipelines there is still pretty good relatively. It depends on the geography a little bit. And we're trying to add customers and add new business in that space as we get into the end of the year and into next.

整體而言，就我們的一般投資組合、中間市場、商業銀行、小型企業而言，我們的管道仍然相對不錯。這在一定程度上取決於地理位置。隨著年底和明年的到來，我們正在努力在該領域增加客戶並增加新業務。

Got it. Great. And my follow-up is just on the expenses, can you just explain like the kind of the write-back on the modernization this quarter? What -- how do -- was that -- how does that mechanically work? And then just making sure they understand that the fourth quarter guide is built on the all-in 3Q number?

知道了。偉大的。我的後續行動只是關於費用，您能解釋一下本季現代化的回寫嗎？那是什麼——怎麼做——那是——它是如何機械地工作的？然後確保他們了解第四季度指南是建立在全部第三季數據的基礎上的？

Yes, Ken. The modernization expenses were actually a net credit because of the real estate gain that you saw in the third quarter that we noted on the expense slide. That was offset by some expenses, but modernization expenses were a net negative $14 million or $14 million credit for the quarter. We would expect that to be a little closer to 0 for the fourth quarter. We may have an additional real estate sale that could give us something in the low single digits of millions. But overall, I don't expect modernization to be a big driver of fourth quarter expenses.

是的，肯。現代化費用實際上是淨貸項，因為我們在費用幻燈片上註意到了第三季的房地產收益。這被一些費用所抵消，但現代化費用為負淨負 1,400 萬美元或本季的 1,400 萬美元信貸。我們預計第四季度這一數字將接近 0。我們可能會進行額外的房地產銷售，這可能會為我們帶來數百萬美元的收入。但總體而言，我預計現代化不會成為第四季支出的主要動力。

Okay. Got it. Right. So that -- okay. And then the fourth quarter guide is built on the -- aside from the deferred comp that you don't expect to repeat, the fourth quarter expense guidance is built off of the 555.

好的。知道了。正確的。所以——好吧。然後，第四季度指南是建立在 - 除了您不希望重複的遞延補償之外，第四季度費用指南是建立在 555 的基礎上的。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Next question today is coming from Brandon King from Truist Securities.

今天的下一個問題來自 Truist 證券公司的布蘭登金 (Brandon King)。

Just putting the pieces together, how are you thinking about balance sheet growth next year, particularly with earning assets? Are you kind of looking to keep things stable? Or could we see some incremental growth?

把這些因素放在一起，您如何看待明年的資產負債表成長，特別是獲利資產？您希望保持事情穩定嗎？或者我們能看到一些增量成長嗎？

Brandon, it's Jim. I'll start off and Peter may want to chime in here. But we've been very focused on stabilizing the funding base and the liquidity base in recent months, as you know. We've got a lot of success there. We're actually in a better shape than we actually thought we would be back in the spring with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 80%. I think it was right now as being in a period of recalibration. We're focused on getting the right mix of customers, right mix of businesses, getting the right pricing. And then we expect this to be at some point in 2024 to be at a point where we start growing loans at a more normal pace again. We're not quite there yet, but we expect to be there at some point in 2024 with loan growth. But right now, we're still going through that period of recalibration, whether it be getting more certainty around our deposit base, getting the right mix in terms of business lines, but we do anticipate some type of balance sheet growth at some point in 2024.

布蘭登，是吉姆。我先開始了，彼得可能想插話一下。但如您所知，近幾個月我們一直非常注重穩定資金基礎和流動性基礎。我們在那裡取得了很多成功。事實上，我們的狀況比我們想像的要好，到了春天我們的貸存比就達到了 80%。我認為現在正處於重新調整的時期。我們專注於獲得正確的客戶組合、正確的業務組合以及正確的定價。然後，我們預計到 2024 年的某個時候，我們將再次開始以更正常的速度增加貸款。我們還沒有完全實現這一目標，但我們預計隨著貸款成長，將在 2024 年某個時候實現這一目標。但現在，我們仍在經歷重新調整的時期，無論是在我們的存款基礎上獲得更多的確定性，還是在業務線方面獲得正確的組合，但我們確實預計資產負債表在某個時候會出現某種類型的增長。 2024 年。

Yes. Brandon, I might just add to what Jim said. I mean, we're also seeing a lot of, I would say, caution in our customer base. There's a lot of headline risk, I think you might say as we go into next year. And Melinda has talked a lot about credit. But we're prepared that it could be a tougher economic environment. It will just navigate successfully, we always have as a company really well. So what that looks like for loan demand per se is probably to be determined. I mean, we'll give some more guidance as we've mentioned on loans when we get into the fourth quarter call for next year.

是的。布蘭登，我可能會補充吉姆所說的內容。我的意思是，我想說的是，我們的客戶群也有很多謹慎的態度。當我們進入明年時，我想你可能會說，存在著許多重大風險。梅琳達談論了很多關於信用的問題。但我們已經做好了應對經濟環境更加嚴峻的準備。它只會成功地導航，作為一家公司，我們一直都做得很好。因此，貸款需求本身的情況可能還有待確定。我的意思是，當我們進入明年第四季的電話會議時，我們將提供更多指導，正如我們在貸款方面提到的那樣。

But we do think we'll get back to loan growth next year. I think we just don't know necessarily what that looks like just yet with the environment, with interest rates where they are. And to the extent that we enter a more challenging economic environment, we'll have to navigate that. And again, it also depends on business by business, what that may look like in geography by geography.

但我們確實認為明年貸款將恢復成長。我認為我們還不一定知道環境和利率的情況會是什麼樣子。當我們進入一個更具挑戰性的經濟環境時，我們必須應對它。再說一次，這也取決於不同的企業，以及不同地區的情況。

Got it. Got it. And then could you speak to deposit seasonality flows? What are your kind of expectations near term? And just how close you think you are to maybe a normal seasonality trends?

知道了。知道了。那麼您能談談存款季節性流量嗎？您近期的期望是什麼？您認為與正常的季節性趨勢有多接近？

Yes, Brandon, seasonality has really been a tough one in the last couple of years. The typical seasonal trends that we see amongst different business units, whether it be loans or deposits. It's kind of gone out of the window. So we're waiting to see whether or not those return back to normal seasonality patterns. We're in a higher interest rate environment and to what extent in a different liquidity environment, too, in terms of overall liquidity and the economy. So it remains to be seen if we do return back to those typical patterns that we've seen in the past.

是的，布蘭登，過去幾年季節性確實很困難。我們在不同業務部門（無論是貸款還是存款）中看到的典型季節性趨勢。它有點消失在窗外了。因此，我們正在等待觀察這些是否會恢復到正常的季節性模式。就整體流動性和經濟而言，我們正處於較高的利率環境中，並且在某種程度上也處於不同的流動性環境中。因此，我們是否會回到過去看到的那些典型模式還有待觀察。

As I mentioned, we may have a very small bit of seasonality assumed in our outlook, but not a lot. So we do see some potential for upside there. But frankly, it just feels like deposit seasonality, much like many other patterns remains to be seen in this new paradigm as to whether or not we return back to the old normal or not.

正如我所提到的，我們的展望中可能假設了很小的季節性，但不會太多。所以我們確實看到了一些上漲的潛力。但坦白說，這感覺就像存款季節性，就像在這個新範式中關於我們是否回到舊常態的許多其他模式仍有待觀察。

Next question is coming from Peter Winter from D.A. Davidson.

下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Peter Winter。戴維森。

Just going back to the '24 expense outlook, does that already contemplate some expense saves initiatives? Or as you go through the budgeting process, there's opportunities for maybe some additional expenses versus that guidance?

回到 24 世紀的費用前景，是否已經考慮了一些費用節省措施？或者，當您完成預算流程時，與該指導相比，是否有可能產生一些額外費用？

Peter, it's a bit of both. We haven't been sitting on our hands, so to speak, and have been looking at opportunities to slow expense growth and to be more prudent. We have some other things that are still in process as we think about sort of the planning process for 2024. So we'll again have more to share potentially as we get into the fourth quarter earnings call.

彼得，兩者兼具。可以說，我們並沒有袖手旁觀，而是一直在尋找減緩費用成長並更加謹慎的機會。在考慮 2024 年的規劃過程時，​​我們還有其他一些事情仍在進行中。因此，在進入第四季度財報電話會議時，我們將再次有更多可能分享的內容。

Okay. And then just one housekeeping. Just what was the end-of-period balance on the Mortgage Banker loans? Just curious how much is left to run off?

好的。然後只需一項家事服務。抵押貸款銀行家貸款的期末餘額到底是多少？只是好奇還剩下多少可以逃走？

Yes. Mortgage Banker, I mean, for the quarter, we were at $900 million, a little bit lower than that for ending. I don't know....

是的。抵押貸款銀行家，我的意思是，本季我們的收入為 9 億美元，比期末略低一些。我不知道....

That range period end was around $650 million.

該範圍期末約為 6.5 億美元。

Yes. So that's right.

是的。所以說是這樣的。

But we've communicated there, Peter, is that we expect the balances to be pretty minimal by the end of the year. Period end might be a couple of hundred million.

但彼得，我們已經溝通過，我們預計到今年年底餘額將非常少。期末可能有幾億。

We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to President, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Curt Farmer. Please go ahead.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想把發言權交還給總裁、董事長兼執行長柯特法默 (Curt Farmer)。請繼續。

Again, I just would say I'm very proud of our performance for the quarter. I'm always proud of our colleagues and how they are delivering for our customers every day. And thank you again for your interest in our company, and I hope you all have a great day. Thank you.

再次強調，我對我們本季的表現感到非常自豪。我始終為我們的同事以及他們每天為客戶提供服務的方式感到自豪。再次感謝您對我們公司的關注，祝福大家有個愉快的一天。謝謝。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。