Comerica Inc (CMA) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Comerica (inaudible) Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Kelly Gage, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Kelly.

您好，歡迎來到 Comerica（聽不清楚）2023 年季度收益電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係主管凱利·蓋奇(Kelly Gage)。請繼續，凱利。

Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, and welcome to Comerica's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman and CEO, Curt Farmer; Chief Financial Officer, Jim Herzog; Chief Credit Officer, Melinda Chausse; and Chief Banking Officer, Peter Sefzik. During this presentation, we will be referring to slides, which will provide additional details. The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC's website as well as the Investor Relations section of our website, comerica.com.

謝謝，凱文。早上好，歡迎參加 Comerica 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。參加本次電話會議的包括我們的總裁、董事長兼執行長 Curt Farmer；財務長吉姆·赫爾佐格；首席信貸官 Melinda Chausse；和首席銀行官 Peter Sefzik。在本次簡報中，我們將參考幻燈片，其中將提供更多詳細資訊。簡報投影片和我們的新聞稿可在 SEC 網站以及我們網站 comerica.com 的投資者關係部分取得。

This conference call contains forward-looking statements. And in that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially from expectations. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor statement in today's earnings presentation on Slide 2, which is incorporated into this call as well as the SEC filings for factors that can cause actual results to differ.

本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。在這方面，您應該注意可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的風險和不確定性。前瞻性陳述僅代表截至本簡報發布之日的情況，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。請參閱投影片 2 上今天收益簡報中的安全港聲明（該聲明已納入本次電話會議）以及 SEC 文件中，以了解可能導致實際結果不同的因素。

Also, this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures. And in that regard, I direct you to the reconciliation of these measures in the earnings materials that are available on our website. With that, I'll turn the call to Curt.

此外，本次電話會議也將參考非公認會計準則衡量標準。在這方面，我將指導您在我們網站上提供的收益資料中對這些措施進行核對。這樣，我就把電話轉給柯特。

Thank you, Kelly, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call. Although 2023 was challenging for our industry, we felt it was a year of achievement. Following industry disruptions, we protected relationships, stabilized deposits, maintained strong credit quality, enhanced our capital and took steps to position our business for future success. In fact, we delivered record average loans and record net interest income. Despite the marketplace and instability, we advanced key strategic initiatives and received impressive recognition for our results.

謝謝你，凱利，大家早安。感謝您加入我們的通話。儘管 2023 年對我們的產業來說充滿挑戰，但我們認為這是成就的一年。在行業動盪之後，我們保護了關係，穩定了存款，保持了良好的信用質量，增強了我們的資本，並採取措施為我們的業務奠定了未來成功的基礎。事實上，我們提供了創紀錄的平均貸款和創紀錄的淨利息收入。儘管市場不穩定，我們仍推進了關鍵策略舉措，並因我們的成果而獲得了令人印象深刻的認可。

Small businesses to highlight as we initiated a national expansion effort, delivered award-winning products and achieved our 3-year living goal ahead of schedule. Noninterest income remained a priority as we launched targeted initiatives aimed at enhancing our products and increasing our mix of capital efficient income.

我們發起了全國擴張計劃，交付了屢獲殊榮的產品，並提前實現了我們的 3 年生活目標，值得關注的小型企業。非利息收入仍然是我們的首要任務，因為我們推出了旨在增強我們的產品和增加資本效率收入組合的有針對性的舉措。

Although the economic environment remains uncertain, we observed a cautiously more optimistic trend in customer sentiment at year-end as we believe many expect less rate pressure in 2024. We remain committed to supporting our customers, and feel we are positioned to grow alongside them as the economy strengthens. Full year financial highlights are on Slide 4. With 7% growth, we produced our highest level of average annual loans despite the impact of deliberate authorization efforts in the second half of the year. Deposits remained a targeted focus, and we were pleased to see stabilization following the industry events and ongoing quantitative tightening. We delivered record net interest income, aided by higher rates and loan balances.

儘管經濟環境仍然不確定，但我們觀察到年底客戶情緒呈謹慎樂觀的趨勢，因為我們相信許多人預計 2024 年利率壓力會較小。我們仍然致力於支持客戶，並認為我們有能力與他們一起成長經濟走強。全年財務亮點請參考投影片 4。儘管受到下半年刻意授權工作的影響，但我們仍實現了最高水準的平均年度貸款成長 7%。存款仍然是一個有針對性的焦點，我們很高興看到行業事件和持續的量化緊縮之後的穩定。在利率和貸款餘額上升的幫助下，我們實現了創紀錄的淨利息收入。

Credit quality remained strong, with net charge-offs well below historical averages. It all was a strong quarter for the company, and we ended with a good fourth quarter. Since there are a number of notable items in this quarter's results, I'm going to hand the call to Jim to discuss those upfront and provide context for the remainder of the presentation. Jim?

信貸品質依然強勁，淨沖銷遠低於歷史平均。這對公司來說是一個強勁的季度，我們以良好的第四季度結束了。由於本季度的業績中有許多值得注意的項目，我將致電吉姆，預先討論這些項目，並為簡報的其餘部分提供背景。吉姆？

Thanks, Curt, and good morning, everyone. Slide 5 details the notable items Curt referenced, most of which were furnished in an 8-K earlier this month. As previously announced, we recorded $109 million in noninterest expenses related to the onetime special FDIC assessment. This was unchanged from indications provided in our December update.

謝謝，柯特，大家早安。幻燈片 5 詳細介紹了 Curt 提到的重要物品，其中大部分是本月早些時候在 8-K 中配備的。正如先前宣布的，我們記錄了與一次性特別 FDIC 評估相關的 1.09 億美元非利息支出。這與我們 12 月更新中提供的指示沒有變化。

Next was the accounting impact from the pending cessation of BSBY since approximately $7 billion of our swap portfolio was designated to BSBY loans. The announcement impacted our ability to maintain hedge accounting for that portion of the portfolio and resulted in a net noncash loss of $88 million. The key message is that cessation does not result in an economic impact, only a change in the time recognition of earnings. These recognized losses will creep back and the normal course pay received cash settlements and earnings recognition on the swaps remain uninterrupted.

接下來是 BSBY 即將終止的會計影響，因為我們的掉期投資組合中約有 70 億美元被指定用於 BSBY 貸款。這項公告影響了我們對這部分投資組合進行對沖會計的能力，並導致 8,800 萬美元的非現金淨損失。關鍵訊息是，停止不會導致經濟影響，只會導致收益確認時間的變化。這些已確認的損失將逐漸回升，正常過程中收到的現金結算支付和掉期收益確認將保持不間斷。

While the realization of losses flowed through to our regulatory capital ratios, they did not further impact tangible common equity or tangible book value. Also note, operationally, and from a customer perspective, we feel well prepared for a seamless transition. Third on the list were $25 million in severance charges, which elevated fourth quarter noninterest expenses, and were intended to enhance future earnings power and create capacity for investment. We previously signaled such efforts were being considered, and we will discuss them in more detail later in the presentation.

雖然損失的實現影響了我們的監管資本比率，但它們並沒有進一步影響有形普通股或有形帳面價值。另請注意，從營運角度和客戶角度來看，我們為無縫過渡做好了充分準備。第三位是 2500 萬美元的遣散費，這增加了第四季度的非利息支出，旨在增強未來的盈利能力並創造投資能力。我們之前曾表示正在考慮此類努力，我們將在稍後的演示中更詳細地討論它們。

The last item does not impact bottom line results, but created line item geography changes within our income statement. The finalization of our agreement with Ameriprise to serve as our new investment platform provider caused a decline in noninterest income, offsetting a decline in noninterest expenses. While relatively small impact in late 2023, we not it here because we expect a larger impact in 2024.

最後一項不會影響底線結果，但會影響損益表中建立的行項目的地理分佈。我們與 Ameriprise 作為新投資平台提供者的協議的最終確定導致非利息收入下降，抵消了非利息支出的下降。雖然 2023 年末的影響相對較小，但我們不在這裡討論，因為我們預計 2024 年影響會更大。

Slide 6 summarizes our fourth quarter results. Overall, the quarter performed in line with expectations, excluding notable items. Considering the impact of those items, I'm going to move to the individual line item slides to discuss quarterly results in more detail.

投影片 6 總結了我們第四季的業績。總體而言，除值得注意的項目外，本季的表現符合預期。考慮到這些項目的影響，我將轉向各個行項目投影片，更詳細地討論季度結果。

Turning to Slide 7. Our intentional balance sheet management reduced average loans and commitments in the fourth quarter. The exit of Mortgage Banker Finance contributed to almost half of the reduction in average balances. At year-end, approximately $250 million in loans remained in that business. Muted customer demand due to elevated rates impacted general middle market balances, while increased selectivity, prioritizing full relationships and higher returns, reduced loans and equity fund services and corporate banking.

轉向投影片 7。我們有意的資產負債表管理減少了第四季的平均貸款和承諾。 Mortgage Banker Finance 的退出導致了平均餘額減少的近一半。截至年底，該業務仍有約 2.5 億美元的貸款。利率上升導致客戶需求減弱，影響了一般中間市場的平衡，同時選擇性增加，優先考慮全面關係和更高回報，貸款和股權基金服務以及企業銀行業務減少。

Ongoing funding of multifamily and industrial construction projects continue to drive higher commercial real estate utilization, but commitments declined for the second consecutive quarter as we strategically manage pipeline and originations. The floating rate nature of our commercial loan portfolio benefited from higher rates as loan yields continued to climb to 6.38% in the fourth quarter.

多戶住宅和工業建設項目的持續融資繼續推動商業房地產利用率的提高，但由於我們對管道和項目進行策略管理，承諾額連續第二季下降。我們的商業貸款組合的浮動利率性質受益於較高的利率，貸款收益率在第四季度繼續攀升至 6.38%。

Slide 8 highlights the stability of our deposit base. Average deposit balances remained relatively flat for the third quarter at $66 billion, even with declines of $564 million in brokered time deposits and $176 million related to the exit of Mortgage Banker Finance. Growth in general Middle Market and Corporate Banking reflects seasonal patterns while retail benefited modestly from promotional campaigns.

投影片 8 強調了我們存款基礎的穩定性。第三季平均存款餘額仍相對持平，為 660 億美元，儘管經紀定期存款減少了 5.64 億美元，且與 Mortgage Banker Finance 退出有關的減少了 1.76 億美元。中間市場和企業銀行業務的整體成長反映了季節性模式，而零售業務則從促銷活動中適度受益。

Declines in National Dealer Services deposits were attributed to operations, consistent with inventory and utilization trends observed in that business. Noninterest-bearing balances performed in line with expectations and the pace of decline continued to flatten. Ongoing success in growing interest-bearing deposits drove a 42% noninterest-bearing deposit mix, which we continue to view as a competitive advantage. Industry competition, the rate environment and successful promotional campaigns drove deposit costs higher to 312 basis points, resulting in a cumulative beta of 58% in the fourth quarter. Our deposit profile has historically been a strength and with our favorable mix, operating nature of our accounts and uninsured trends we feel it is even more compelling.

全國經銷商服務存款的下降歸因於運營，與該業務中觀察到的庫存和利用率趨勢一致。無利息餘額表現符合預期，下降幅度持續趨緩。計息存款成長的持續成功推動了 42% 的無息存款組合，我們仍將其視為競爭優勢。行業競爭、利率環境和成功的促銷活動將存款成本推高至 312 個基點，導致第四季的累積貝塔值為 58%。我們的存款狀況歷來都是一種優勢，憑藉我們有利的組合、帳戶的營運性質以及未投保的趨勢，我們認為它更具吸引力。

As shown on Slide 19, we continue to normalize our liquidity position, using excess cash to repay wholesale funding while retaining significant capacity. We absorbed $1.2 billion in maturing FHLB advances and allowed over $500 million in broker time deposits to mature in the quarter. We expect decisions on future wholesale funding maturities to follow the normal course monitoring of balance sheet dynamics and funding needs. At 78%, our loan-to-deposit ratio remained favorable and positions us to prioritize high-return loan growth going forward.

如投影片 19 所示，我們繼續使流動性部位正常化，使用多餘現金償還批發資金，同時保留大量產能。我們吸收了 12 億美元的 FHLB 到期預付款，並允許超過 5 億美元的經紀人定期存款在本季度到期。我們預計未來批發融資期限的決定將遵循對資產負債表動態和融資需求的正常監控。我們的貸存比率為 78%，仍然有利，這使我們能夠優先考慮未來的高回報貸款成長。

Period-end balances in our securities portfolio on Slide 10 increased approximately $550 million as paydowns and maturities were more than offset by a $975 million positive mark-to-market adjustment from rate movements late in the quarter. Treasury maturities and anticipated securities repayments are projected to benefit net interest income and AOCI, and we anticipate a 25% improvement in unrealized securities losses over the next 2 years.

投影片 10 中我們的證券投資組合的期末餘額增加了約 5.5 億美元，因為本季末利率變動帶來的 9.75 億美元的按市值計價的積極調整足以抵消還款和到期日的影響。國債到期和預期證券償還預計將有利於淨利息收入和 AOCI，我們預計未來 2 年未實現證券損失將改善 25%。

Turning to Slide 11. Net interest income decreased $17 million to $584 million driven by higher rates and deposit mix as volume changes related to loans, deposits and wholesale funding were largely offset by lower balances at the Fed. Successful execution of our balance sheet optimization strategy has allowed us to reduce wholesale funding and enhance margin.

轉向投影片 11。由於利率和存款組合上升，淨利息收入減少了 1700 萬美元，至 5.84 億美元，因為與貸款、存款和批發融資相關的數量變化在很大程度上被美聯儲餘額減少所抵消。資產負債表優化策略的成功執行使我們能夠減少批發資金並提高利潤率。

As shown on Slide 12, successful execution of our interest rate strategy and the composition of our balance sheet positions us favorably for a gradual 100 basis points or 50 basis points on average decline in interest rates. Of note, BSBY cessation did not impact the ongoing cash flow associated with our swaps listed on the slide. While we took a loss in the fourth quarter, we will accrete that loss back, with the majority coming back into net interest income in 2025 and 2026. We expect the impact in 2024 to be relatively muted, although there may be some mark-to-market volatility until we fully redesignate remaining impacted swaps to SOFR.

如投影片 12 所示，我們的利率策略的成功執行和資產負債表的組成使我們有利於利率逐步平均下降 100 個基點或 50 個基點。值得注意的是，BSBY 的終止並沒有影響與幻燈片上列出的掉期相關的持續現金流。雖然我們在第四季度出現了虧損，但我們將彌補這一損失，其中大部分將在2025 年和2026 年重新轉化為淨利息收入。我們預計2024 年的影響將相對較小，儘管可能會有一些按市值計算-市場波動，直到我們將剩餘受影響的掉期完全重新指定為 SOFR。

By strategically managing our swap and securities portfolio, while considering balance sheet dynamics, we intend to maintain our insulated position over time. Credit quality remains strong as highlighted on Slide 13. Modest net charge-offs of 15 basis points remained below our normal range, and the few we had were more concentrated in relatively higher risk portfolios.

透過策略性地管理我們的掉期和證券投資組合，同時考慮資產負債表的動態，我們打算隨著時間的推移保持我們的絕緣頭寸。正如幻燈片 13 所強調的那樣，信貸品質仍然強勁。15 個基點的適度淨沖銷仍低於我們的正常範圍，而且我們的少數沖銷更多​​地集中在風險相對較高的投資組合中。

We observed some normalization in general Middle Market and Corporate Banking, as rates pressured customer profitability. These normalization trends drove a slight increase in the allowance for credit losses to 1.40% of total loans. Nonperforming assets increased, but still remained historically low. Overall, our portfolio continues to perform as expected, and we believe migration will remain manageable.

我們觀察到一般中間市場和企業銀行業務出現了一定程度的正常化，因為利率對客戶獲利能力構成壓力。這些正常化趨勢推動信貸損失準備金小幅上升至貸款總額的 1.40%。不良資產增加​​，但仍處於歷史低點。總體而言，我們的投資組合繼續按預期表現，我們相信遷移仍將是可控的。

On Slide 14, fourth quarter non-interest income was $198 million included $93 million in notable items. Excluding the impact of these items and an increase in deferred compensation, which is offset in expenses, noninterest income performed in line with guidance. While we continue to expect noncustomer income in 2024 to come down from elevated 2023 levels, we remain committed to investments to drive capital-efficient fee growth over time.

在投影片 14 上，第四季非利息收入為 1.98 億美元，其中包括 9,300 萬美元的顯著項目。排除這些項目的影響以及遞延薪酬的增加（抵銷了費用），非利息收入的執行情況與指導一致。雖然我們仍然預計 2024 年的非客戶收入將比 2023 年的高水準有所下降，但我們仍然致力於投資，以隨著時間的推移推動資本效率高的費用成長。

Expenses on Slide 15 included $132 million in notable items. Beyond those items, increases in salaries and benefits reflected the impact of higher deferred compensation, offset with the noninterest income. Increased consulting expenses are attributed to advancing strategic and risk management initiatives and a smaller gain on the sale of real estate in the fourth quarter had the net impact of increasing expenses.

第 15 張投影片上的支出包括 1.32 億美元的顯著項目。除了這些項目之外，工資和福利的增加反映了更高的遞延薪酬的影響，並被非利息收入抵消。諮詢費用的增加歸因於策略和風險管理措施的推進，而第四季度房地產銷售收益較小則產生了費用增加的淨影響。

Moving to Slide 16. We previously communicated an intention to address growing expense pressures and the structural impact to industry profitability from 2023 events. In addition to our normal efficiency efforts, this slide details incremental actions to recalibrate expenses in support of investments and enhanced earnings. Through this process, we are prioritizing customers and positioning the business for future success. Complementing efforts already underway to rationalize real estate, we initiated a plan to further reduce our physical footprint, including the closure of 26 banking centers where we assess nominal customer impact.

轉到投影片 16。我們之前曾表達過解決日益增長的費用壓力以及 2023 年事件對行業盈利能力的結構性影響的意圖。除了我們正常的效率工作之外，這張投影片還詳細介紹了重新調整支出以支持投資和增加收益的增量行動。透過這個過程，我們優先考慮客戶並為業務定位以實現未來的成功。作為房地產合理化工作的補充，我們啟動了一項進一步減少實體足跡的計劃，包括關閉 26 個銀行中心，我們在這些中心評估名義客戶影響。

In order to enhance colleague efficiency and keep decision-makers close to our customers, we are streamlining our management structure and eliminating select roles. When combined with the impact of banking center closures, these actions eliminated approximately 250 positions.

為了提高同事效率並讓決策者貼近客戶，我們正在精簡管理架構並取消特定職位。加上銀行中心關閉的影響，這些行動減少了大約 250 個職位。

Further, we are optimizing our product offering to enhance capital efficiency and returns and select contracts are being reviewed for renegotiation. In total, these actions have the effect of reducing expected 2024 expenses by $45 million, growing to an estimated benefit of $55 million in 2025. These decisions are challenging, and we do not take them lightly, but we feel they are necessary to support the sustainable growth of our business.

此外，我們正在優化我們的產品，以提高資本效率和回報，並正在審查選定的合約以進行重新談判。總的來說，這些行動可以將 2024 年的預計支出減少 4,500 萬美元，到 2025 年預計收益將增加到 5,500 萬美元。這些決定具有挑戰性，我們不會掉以輕心，但我們認為它們對於支持我們業務的可持續增長。

Slide 17 highlights our solid capital position. Even with the impact of notable items, our estimated CET1 grew to 11.09%. Rate movement, coupled with continuous paydowns and maturities in our securities portfolio, reduced losses within AOCI and increase tangible common equity to 6.30%. Based on the December 31 forward curve, we expect our unrealized losses to reduce by 1/3 by the end of 2025. Although the proposed capital changes do not apply to us based on our asset size, we favor a conservative approach to capital management and plan to monitor ongoing AOCI volatility and regulations as they evolve.

投影片 17 凸顯了我們堅實的資本狀況。即使考慮到顯著項目的影響，我們估計的 CET1 仍成長至 11.09%。利率變動，加上我們證券投資組合的持續支付和到期，減少了 AOCI 內的損失，並將有形普通股權益增加至 6.30%。根據12 月31 日的遠期曲線，我們預計到2025 年底，我們的未實現損失將減少1/3。儘管根據我們的資產規模，擬議的資本變更並不適用於我們，但我們傾向於採取保守的資本管理方法，並且計劃監控 AOCI 的持續波動和法規的演變。

Our outlook for 2024 is on Slide 18. We project full year average loans to decline 1% to 2%, impacted by optimization trends late in 2023. While we expect some impact of selectivity to continue into the first quarter, we anticipate 5% loan growth from December to December, with contributions from almost all businesses. Full year average deposits are expected to be down 1% to 2% from 2023, but we project relative stability point to point. Following a seasonal decline in the first quarter, we expect customer deposits to stabilize and rebound in the second half of the year.

我們對2024 年的展望見幻燈片18。我們預計，受2023 年末優化趨勢的影響，全年平均貸款將下降1% 至2%。雖然我們預計選擇性的一些影響將持續到第一季度，但我們預計貸款將下降5% 12月至12月的成長幾乎來自所有企業的貢獻。預計全年平均存款將較 2023 年下降 1% 至 2%，但我們預計相對穩定。繼第一季季節性下降後，我們預計下半年客戶存款將穩定回升。

Based on the 12/31 forward curve, we expect full year net interest income to decline 11% from 2023, driven largely by year-over-year deposit mix. We expect deposit seasonality and to a lesser extent, less income from BSBY redesignation, slightly higher deposit betas and lower loan balances to impact first quarter net interest income. From there, we expect a small uptick in the second quarter and more pronounced growth in the second half of the year.

根據 12/31 遠期曲線，我們預計全年淨利息收入將比 2023 年下降 11%，這主要是由於同比存款組合的推動。我們預計存款季節性以及 BSBY 重新命名帶來的收入減少、存款貝塔值略高和貸款餘額下降將在較小程度上影響第一季淨利息收入。從那時起，我們預計第二季將出現小幅上升，下半年將出現更明顯的成長。

As it relates to BSBY hedge accounting, interest rates and timing of REIT designation could create volatility and but we expect to eliminate most or all of that potential volatility from transition of indexes by the end of the first quarter. Credit quality remained strong, and we expect continued migration to be manageable. We forecast full year net charge-offs to move into the lower half of our normal 20 to 40-basis-point range. We expect noninterest income to grow 6% on a reported basis which would be relatively flat year-to-year when adjusting for notable items. As we signaled last quarter, we expect FHLB dividends, price alignment income from hedges and BOLI to decline from elevated levels. Customer income is expected to increase modestly with growth in fiduciary and capital markets and deposit service charges, partially offset by pressures in card, commercial lending fees, and the assumption that favorable mark-to-market derivative adjustments do not repeat.

由於它與 BSBY 對沖會計相關，利率和 REIT 指定的時間可能會產生波動，但我們預計到第一季末將透過指數轉換消除大部分或全部潛在波動。信貸品質依然強勁，我們預期持續的移民是可控的。我們預計全年淨沖銷將進入正常 20 至 40 個基點範圍的下半部。我們預計非利息收入將在報告基礎上成長 6%，在對重要項目進行調整後，這一數字將與去年同期相對持平。正如我們上季度所表示的那樣，我們預計 FHLB 股息、對沖和 BOLI 的價格調整收入將從較高水平下降。隨著信託和資本市場以及存款服務費用的增長，客戶收入預計將小幅增長，但部分被銀行卡壓力、商業貸款費用以及有利的按市值計價的衍生品調整不會重複的假設所抵消。

Full year noninterest expenses are expected to decline 4% on a reported basis, but grew 3% after adjusting for notable items. Through successful execution of our expense recalibration efforts, we believe we have created capacity to prioritize investments designed to further enhance our funding base, revenue mix and capital efficiency as well as risk management framework. Even with 5% projected point-to-point loan growth, we expect to maintain capital well in excess of our 10% target.

根據報告，全年非利息支出預計將下降 4%，但在對重要項目進行調整後將增加 3%。透過成功執行我們的費用調整工作，我們相信我們已經有能力優先考慮旨在進一步增強我們的資金基礎、收入組合和資本效率以及風險管理框架的投資。即使預計點對點貸款成長率為 5%，我們仍預期資本將遠遠超過 10% 的目標。

We will continue to monitor AOCI volatility in the evolving regulatory environment as we evaluate the right time to resume share repurchases. In all, we are proud of our year, and we feel we've taken the right actions to support the future of our business. Now I'll turn the call back to Curt.

我們將在不斷變化的監管環境中繼續監控 AOCI 的波動性，同時評估恢復股票回購的最佳時機。總而言之，我們對這一年感到自豪，我們認為我們已經採取了正確的行動來支持我們業務的未來。現在我將把電話轉回給柯特。

Thank you, Jim. Despite the industry volatility in 2023, we think it is important to take a step back and reinforce that our core business remained unchanged as shown on Slide 19. As a leading bank for business with strong wealth management and retail capabilities, our tenured colleagues deliver value-added expertise to our impressive customer base. Our highly regarded approach to credit continued to perform well and has historically outperformed our peers. Tailored products are designed to meet the needs of our customers, enhancing revenue and retention. Our deposit profile has long been a strength, and investments in products and small business are expected to make this core funding source even more compelling.

謝謝你，吉姆。儘管2023 年行業出現波動，但我們認為重要的是退後一步，強調我們的核心業務保持不變，如幻燈片19 所示。作為一家擁有強大財富管理和零售能力的領先商業銀行，我們的終身同事創造了價值- 為我們令人印象深刻的客戶群增添專業知識。我們備受推崇的信貸方法持續表現良好，並且歷來優於我們的同行。客製化產品旨在滿足客戶的需求，提高收入和保留率。我們的存款狀況長期以來一直是我們的優勢，對產品和小型企業的投資預計將使這一核心資金來源更具吸引力。

Actions to recalibrate our expense base are designed to benefit our future, and at well over 10% strategic capital target, we believe we have a strong foundation. In August, we will celebrate our 175th anniversary. You do not achieve that kind of longevity without proving time and time again that you can successfully navigate disruptions.

重新調整我們的支出基礎的行動旨在造福我們的未來，並且遠超 10% 的戰略資本目標，我們相信我們擁有堅實的基礎。 8 月，我們將慶祝成立 175 週年。如果不一次又一次證明你能夠成功應對顛覆，你就無法實現這樣的長壽。

In 2023, our model proved resilient. Our colleagues rallied to support our customers through an uncertain time, and we delivered record results. As we look forward into this milestone anniversary year for our company, I'm confident in our ability to deliver for our customers, colleagues and shareholders. We appreciate your time this morning, and we'd be happy to take some questions.

2023 年，我們的模型被證明具有彈性。我們的同事團結起來，在不確定的時期為我們的客戶提供支持，我們取得了創紀錄的成果。在我們展望公司這項具有里程碑意義的周年紀念之際，我對我們為客戶、同事和股東提供服務的能力充滿信心。感謝您今天早上抽出時間，我們很樂意回答一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Peter Winter from D.A. Davis.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Peter Winter。戴維斯.

So there's been a lot of focus this earnings season on kind of a normalized margin range. I'm just wondering what you -- as some of these swaps mature, what the margin could get back to? Do you think it could get back to those pre-COVID levels in the 350 range?

因此，本財報季人們非常關注標準化的利潤範圍。我只是想知道，隨著其中一些掉期的成熟，保證金可以恢復到多少？您認為它能回到新冠疫情前 350 的水平嗎？

As you may know and recall, I don't like to get real specific on margin. I think this quarter is a great example of that, where we actually had a decrease in net interest income, but we had an increase in NIM. So a bank with our business model, where we have some lumpiness, you can get those correlations that don't match up. But I do see NIM trending in a very good direction. We ticked up this quarter. We will have a little bit of a tick down next quarter as the first quarter guidance would imply based on the percentage growth that we put in the outlook. But then we see a steady climb from there. I do see us by the end of 2024, actually getting above where this past fourth quarter was, and then we continue to project up from there throughout 2025 as we have swaps and securities roll off and we get into a more normalized environment.

您可能知道並記得，我不喜歡對保證金進行真正的具體說明。我認為本季就是一個很好的例子，我們的淨利息收入實際上有所下降，但淨利差有所增加。因此，對於具有我們業務模式的銀行來說，我們有一些不穩定性，你可能會得到那些不匹配的相關性。但我確實看到 NIM 正朝著一個非常好的方向發展。我們這個季度有所成長。下個季度我們的業績將略有下降，因為第一季的指導將基於我們在展望中提出的成長百分比。但隨後我們看到從那裡開始穩定地攀升。我確實看到我們到 2024 年底，實際上會超過過去第四季度的水平，然後我們將在整個 2025 年繼續預測，因為我們有掉期和證券滾存，並且我們進入了一個更加正常化的環境。

So I do see a lot of momentum building for us in the second half of this year, and I see that momentum actually accelerating as we move through 2025. And of course, that's exclusive of the BSBY hedge accounting impact where we're actually going to have significant income added in 2025 on top of the factors that I just talked about.

因此，我確實看到今年下半年我們的勢頭正在增強，而且隨著我們進入 2025 年，這種勢頭實際上正在加速。當然，這不包括我們實際要實現的 BSBY 對沖會計影響除了我剛才談到的因素之外，到2025 年還會有大量收入增加。

Got it. And then just a follow-up, you had really nice growth in the CET1 ratio. And even adjusted for AOCI, you're above the minimum 7% threshold. I'm just wondering, you mentioned in the prepared remarks looking at AOCI, but what are some of the parameters you're looking for to resume share buybacks? And then how much capital do you accrete on a quarterly basis?

知道了。接下來，你的 CET1 比率有了非常好的成長。即使根據 AOCI 進行調整，您也高於 7% 的最低閾值。我只是想知道，您在準備好的評論中提到了 AOCI，但是您正在尋找哪些參數來恢復股票回購？那麼您每季會累積多少資本？

Yes. Peter, number one, I do think we're on a very good track to comply with (inaudible) game rules should they end up applying to us. But with that said, we do have a little bit of flexibility based on the fact that we are in pretty good shape there. The #1 thing that I continue to keep an eye on is the OCI. It did come down significantly this quarter. But let's keep in mind, it came down after a number of quarters being more elevated. And then, since then, rates have ticked back up again. So I don't want to declare victory yet on the OCI front for us or the whole industry. I mean it looks like things are going in the good direction, and we're certainly going to be in very solid shape to comply with any capital rules. But before we start to share repurchase up again, I would put AOCI at the top of the list that we want to keep our eye on to make sure that doesn't tick in the other direction again, a little more line of sight into what the overall economic environment is from an interest rate standpoint and just overall uncertainty standpoint.

是的。彼得，第一，我確實認為，如果他們最終向我們提出申請，我們就能夠很好地遵守（聽不清楚）遊戲規則。但話雖如此，我們確實有一點靈活性，因為我們在那裡的狀況相當不錯。我繼續關注的第一件事是 OCI。本季確實大幅下降。但我們要記住，它是在幾個季度上漲之後才下降的。然後，從那時起，利率再次回升。因此，我還不想宣布我們或整個產業在 OCI 方面取得了勝利。我的意思是，看起來事情正在朝著好的方向發展，我們肯定會處於非常穩固的狀態來遵守任何資本規則。但在我們開始再次分享回購之前，我會將 AOCI 放在我們想要關注的清單的頂部，以確保它不會再次出現另一個方向，並更多地關注什麼整體經濟環境是從利率角度和整體不確定性角度來看的。

But it does appear we are going to be in shape at some point to start the share repurchase, but we want to be cautious, and we will be cautious this year. Certainly, in the first half of the year, we won't be active in share repurchase. We'll keep our options open in the second half of the year. But I'll say that even there, we will likely be cautious unless we get a better line of sight in terms of interest rates and overall economic stability.

但看來我們確實會在某個時候開始股票回購，但我們要保持謹慎，今年也會保持謹慎。當然，上半年我們不會積極進行股票回購。我們將在今年下半年保持我們的選擇。但我要說的是，即使在那裡，我們也可能會保持謹慎，除非我們在利率和整體經濟穩定性方面有更好的視野。

And how much capital do you accrete roughly on a quarterly basis?

您每季大約累積多少資本？

Well, it's going to depend on the quarter and the year and what's going on in the economy. I can tell you that, in 2024, we will likely not accrete a lot of capital, maybe a tad bit above where we ended the year. But with 5% point-to-point growth, even though we're going to have, I think, strong earnings next year. I don't think you're going to see us significantly above where we ended the fourth quarter. But I think as you move into 2025, you're going to start seeing some nice accretion from that point on.

嗯，這將取決於季度和年份以及經濟狀況。我可以告訴你，到 2024 年，我們可能不會累積大量資本，可能會比年底的水平略高一些。但隨著 5% 的點對點成長，儘管我認為明年我們將獲得強勁的利潤。我認為你不會看到我們的業績明顯高於第四季末的水平。但我認為，隨著進入 2025 年，您將開始看到一些不錯的增長。

Our next question today is coming from Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley.

今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞。

I wanted to ask on your loan-to-deposit ratio. It ticked down again in the quarter to about 78%. I get that you're looking for 5% loan growth point-to-point next year, and you might be bringing in deposits ahead of that. But I guess if the loan growth is contingent on rates coming down, why pay up for deposits now? Why not bring in the deposits later as the loan growth comes in? And what is the right loan-to-deposit ratio to consider as we look out into the end of 2024?

我想問一下你們的貸存比。本季再次下降至 78% 左右。我了解到您希望明年的貸款成長率達到 5%，並且您可能會在此之前吸收存款。但我想如果貸款成長取決於利率下降，為什麼現在還要支付存款？為什麼不在貸款成長之後再引入存款呢？展望 2024 年底，正確的貸存比為何？

I might -- this is Curt. I might start and then ask Jim or Peter to add in. But on the deposit front, maybe just to keep the perspective here is that we consider deposit as part of full relationships with clients. And we have clients for whom we have lending relationships and clients from them, we have deposit relationships and clients for and we have both. But in the case of growing deposits, we're going to grow deposits sort of in line of taking care of our customers. And having lived through what the whole industry lived through last spring, I don't believe this is an environment where we're going to look any deposits, turning the deposits away for lack of a better definition. We do believe that, that loan-to-deposit ratio will go up some, but we should be able to comfortably stay within our target, we believe, kind of in the mid-80s even with the point-to-point growth that we're expecting in 2024.

我可能—這是柯特。我可能會開始，然後請吉姆或彼得補充。但在存款方面，也許只是為了保持這裡的觀點，我們將存款視為與客戶的全面關係的一部分。我們有與我們有貸款關係的客戶和來自他們的客戶，我們有存款關係和客戶，我們兩者都有。但在存款成長的情況下，我們將增加存款以照顧我們的客戶。經歷了去年春天整個行業所經歷的事情后，我不認為現在的環境是我們會尋找任何存款，並因為缺乏更好的定義而將存款拒之門外。我們確實相信，貸存比會有所上升，但我們相信，即使我們的點對點增長，我們也應該能夠輕鬆地保持在 80 年代中期的目標之內。預計 2024 年。

Yes. Two points I would add on to that, Manan. I mean we love deposits and regardless of loans. I mean, we're making money on these deposits. We're not holding capital on them. we love deposits just for what they represent amongst themselves. But having said that, we certainly don't want to operate in a just-in-time funding capacity for loans. I mean we want to make sure we're prepared for when that loan comes. You can't necessarily turn deposits on, on a dime, but we welcome the deposits. We're not going to turn them away. We're making money on them, and they continue to add to the stability of the overall franchise.

是的。我想補充兩點，Manan。我的意思是我們喜歡存款，無論貸款如何。我的意思是，我們靠這些存款賺錢。我們沒有持有他們的資本。我們喜歡存款只是因為它們本身所代表的意義。但話雖如此，我們當然不想以及時的貸款融資能力運作。我的意思是，我們要確保為貸款到來做好準備。您不一定可以立即存款，但我們歡迎存款。我們不會拒絕他們。我們從他們身上賺錢，他們也繼續增加整個特許經營的穩定性。

Great. And maybe a follow-up there on deposits. As rates start to go down, given your skew to commercial, how should we think about those deposit betas on the way down? If we do get fixed rate cuts or even more than that as we get into 2025, do you think the first few rate cuts are more beneficial given your skew to commercial? Or should you start to see more momentum in deposit costs coming down as you get into rate cut numbers 4, 5 and 6?

偉大的。也許還有關於存款的後續行動。隨著利率開始下降，考慮到商業化的傾向，我們應該如何考慮下降過程中的存款貝塔值？如果進入 2025 年，我們確實進行固定降息，甚至降息幅度更大，考慮到您對商業的傾斜，您認為前幾次降息是否更有利？或者，當您進入第 4、5 和 6 次降息時，您是否應該開始看到更多存款成本下降的勢頭？

Yes, every cycle is different, so it's hard to say for sure. But I think, in this particular cycle, we could see a little bit of symmetry or what I might call a LIFO approach, last in, first out. I mean, certainly, we saw betas accelerate towards the end of the cycle, and even in the last couple of quarters without Fed hikes we've seen deposits continue to tick up. And so just as we've seen them more accelerated in the second half of the cycle, I think those might be the most sensitive deposits that we can take back down early in the following rate cycle.

是的，每個週期都不同，所以很難確定。但我認為，在這個特定的周期中，我們可以看到一點對稱性，或者我稱之為「後進先出」的方法。我的意思是，當然，我們看到貝塔在周期結束時加速，即使在過去幾季聯準會沒有升息的情況下，我們也看到存款繼續增加。因此，正如我們看到它們在周期的後半段加速一樣，我認為這些可能是我們可以在下一個利率週期早期收回的最敏感的存款。

So I am somewhat cautiously optimistic. We are assuming in the outlook about a 60% beta was not too big of a lag following the first rate cut. Having said that, every cycle is different. And I do recall back in 2019, the Fed cut 50 bps, I believe, in July '19. And I didn't see a lot of falling rates in the industry overall. That was a very controlled environment where the economy was still relatively strong. And I continue to think that the reason for the Fed cuts is really going to drive that beta. If it's a very orderly takedown of rates and the economy continues to be very strong, it may be a little stickier to bring them down. But if the Fed reduces rates because there is a little weakening in the economy, I think weakening in the economy, I think it is thankful that more leverage. So I would just emphasize that every cycle is different, but we do think there is that potential for some significant beta in those first few cuts.

所以我有點謹慎樂觀。我們在展望中假設 60% 的貝塔值在第一次降息後並沒有太大的延遲。話雖如此，每個週期都是不同的。我確實記得在 2019 年，聯準會在 2019 年 7 月降息了 50 個基點。我並沒有看到整個行業的利率大幅下降。那是一個非常受控制的環境，經濟仍然相對強勁。我仍然認為聯準會降息的原因確實會推動貝塔係數的上升。如果這是一次非常有序的降息，而且經濟持續非常強勁，那麼降低利率可能會有點困難。但如果聯準會因為經濟略有疲軟而降息，我認為經濟疲軟，我認為增加槓桿是值得慶幸的。因此，我只想強調，每個週期都是不同的，但我們確實認為在最初的幾次削減中存在一些重大貝塔值的潛力。

Great. And do you have what percentage of your deposits are directly indexed to the Fed contract?

偉大的。您的存款中有多少百分比直接與聯準會合約掛鉤？

Most of our deposits are not. We're very much a relationship-based bank, and many of those were one-on-one conversations with customers. So we do have some reciprocal deposits that are -- you consider to be somewhat indexed. Obviously, the broker deposits, their time deposits are somewhat indexed, you can consider. But the vast majority of our deposits are not.

我們的大部分存款都不是。我們在很大程度上是一家基於關係的銀行，其中許多都是與客戶進行一對一的對話。因此，我們確實有一些互惠存款，您認為它們在某種程度上是指數化的。顯然，經紀商的存款，他們的定期存款有些指數化，你可以考慮。但我們的絕大多數存款並非如此。

Our next question is coming from John Pancari for Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

First question, just around the loan growth expectation, the 5% point-to-point expectation, can you give us a little bit of color where do you see the loan growth drivers coming from? And when do you really see an acceleration there in overall loan growth as you look through 2024?

第一個問題，圍繞著貸款成長預期，即 5% 的點對點預期，您能否向我們介紹一下您認為貸款成長動力來自哪裡？展望 2024 年，您什麼時候真正看到整體貸款成長加速？

John, this is Peter. So it's actually pretty broad based. I mean, we mentioned this morning, we still have a little bit of mortgage banker finance at the end of December that will be working against us a little bit through the year. But then across the rest of our businesses, it's pretty broad-based. I do think -- I think dealer probably has sort of momentum going into 2024 that will continue throughout the year. Our EFS business, I think, is a business that, if you kind of look in the appendix, we've shown has dropped a couple of quarters. I think it will probably drop first quarter, but we think it will pick up quite a bit going into '24, but really broad-based across middle market.

約翰，這是彼得。所以它的基礎其實相當廣泛。我的意思是，我們今天早上提到，到 12 月底我們仍然有一些抵押貸款銀行家的融資，這將在全年對我們產生一些不利影響。但在我們的其他業務中，它的基礎相當廣泛。我確實認為，進入 2024 年，經銷商可能會有某種勢頭，這種勢頭將持續一整年。我認為，如果你看一下附錄，我們的 EFS 業務已經下降了幾季。我認為第一季它可能會下降，但我們認為進入 24 年它會有所回升，但在中間市場的基礎非常廣泛。

We feel like we've got some really good momentum. I would tell you that we feel like customer sentiment changed a little bit in the fourth quarter in the right direction. And sort of our informal surveys that we do internally with everything seems to indicate that there's going to be some more demand as we get into what I would really say the second quarter, to answer your question, probably second and third quarter is where I think we'll start to see that pick up. I don't -- as we talk about today, our outlook on first quarter is pretty flat to down a little bit. But I think as we get into the middle of the year, we're getting indications that we'll start to see some real good loan growth that results in that 5% point to point.

我們覺得我們有一些非常好的勢頭。我想告訴你，我們覺得第四季客戶情緒朝著正確的方向發生了一些變化。我們在內部對所有事情進行的非正式調查似乎表明，當我們進入我真正想說的第二季度時，將會有更多的需求，為了回答你的問題，我認為可能是第二季度和第三季我們將開始看到這種情況的改善。我不認為——正如我們今天所討論的，我們對第一季的前景相當持平甚至略有下降。但我認為，隨著進入年中，我們收到的跡象表明，我們將開始看到一些真正良好的貸款成長，從而實現 5% 的點對點成長。

Great. Okay. That's helpful. And then separately, your guidance implies, call it, ballpark about 90 basis points or so of core negative operating leverage based upon the midpoints of the guide. And I'm just wondering if the revenue picture ends up being more pressured than you currently forecast, do you have expense flexibility to improve that operating leverage? I know you set out the $45 million in expense reduction from the recalibration in 2024. Can that recalibration benefit, that $45 million cannot go up if revenue is pressured to a greater degree?

偉大的。好的。這很有幫助。然後，您的指導意見暗示，根據指南的中點，核心負營運槓桿大約有 90 個基點左右。我只是想知道收入狀況最終是否比您目前預測的壓力更大，您是否有費用彈性來提高營運槓桿？我知道您計劃在 2024 年透過重新調整減少 4500 萬美元的費用。如果收入受到更大程度的壓力，這 4500 萬美元就無法增加，這種重新調整是否有利？

John, as Jim said in his prepared remarks that $45 million becomes $55 million on a run rate basis in 2025. And this is an interesting period of time. The whole industry has gone through an inflection in 2023, and somewhat of a recalibration, to use your words. We've tried to be thoughtful in terms of balancing the things that we believe are driving revenue for us, and will drive revenue for us going forward. That includes some of the products that we've invested in, especially in treasury management, payments, capital markets, wealth management. It also includes the focus on small business, expansion into new markets into the Southeast and into the Mountain West, Colorado region. And so we want to stay focused on those because we're trying to really play the long game here and try to get beyond sort of the immediate environment that we're operating in. And then secondly, I would say, while we did have some expense initiatives in the quarter, we're always thinking about additional efficiency opportunities. And again, it's all about sort of balancing between those 2. And so my hope is that we would see positive operating leverage really based on overall revenue growth and a return to a more normalized interest rate environment and hopefully a soft landing on the economy and a lack of further credit deterioration, et cetera.

約翰，正如吉姆在他準備好的演講中所說，按運行費率計算，到 2025 年，4500 萬美元將變成 5500 萬美元。這是一個有趣的時期。用你的話來說，整個產業在 2023 年經歷了一次拐點，並且在某種程度上進行了重新調整。我們試圖深思熟慮地平衡我們認為正在為我們帶來收入的因素，並將為我們未來帶來收入。這包括我們投資的一些產品，特別是資金管理、支付、資本市場、財富管理的產品。它還包括對小型企業的關注，向東南部和科羅拉多州西山區的新市場擴張。因此，我們希望繼續專注於這些，因為我們正在努力真正在這裡打持久戰，並嘗試超越我們正在運營的直接環境。其次，我想說，雖然我們確實有在本季度的一些支出計劃中，我們一直在考慮額外的效率機會。再說一遍，這一切都是關於這兩者之間的平衡。因此，我希望我們能夠看到真正基於整體收入增長和利率環境更加正常化的積極運營槓桿，並希望經濟能夠軟著陸，信用沒有進一步惡化等等。

If we don't see that, then obviously, we need to think about what else we can do from an efficiency standpoint.

如果我們沒有看到這一點，那麼顯然我們需要從效率的角度來考慮我們還能做些什麼。

Just regarding that, when do you expect you could break into more of a positive operating leverage trajectory?

就這一點而言，您預計什麼時候可以進入更積極的營運槓桿軌道？

Yes, John, it's Jim. I mean, number one, just to build on Curt's comments, I do think 2024 is a bit of a transition year, not just for us, but for the whole industry, I think you're hearing that from some of the other calls too. We're in this kind of tweener stage where interest rates continue to pay rates and deposits continue to edge up a little bit, yet the Fed isn't raising rates. So that makes it a really challenging year. I do think things will start to move in the positive operating leverage structure in 2025. We don't have a complete line of sight into that yet, but I mentioned how we expect net interest income to really have some great momentum as we enter into 2025. And of course, that's always the goal to have a positive operating leverage.

是的，約翰，是吉姆。我的意思是，第一，以Curt 的評論為基礎，我確實認為2024 年是一個過渡年，不僅對我們而言，而且對整個行業而言，我想您也從其他一些電話中聽到了這一點。我們正處於這樣的中間階段，利率繼續支付利率，存款繼續小幅上升，但聯準會卻沒有升息。所以這使得今年確實是充滿挑戰的一年。我確實認為，到 2025 年，事情將開始朝著積極的營運槓桿結構發展。我們對此還沒有一個完整的視野，但我提到，當我們進入2025 年。當然，擁有積極的營運槓桿始終是我們的目標。

And on the topic of expenses, I'll just add that I think that really is a journey, not a destination. We always have to be looking at expenses. I don't think this will be the end of taking a really hard look at what we can do over time. And I think expense reduction is really having a purpose for twofold. One is to create capacity for investment which continues to be critically important, probably more so now than ever. And then secondly, to make sure we get that positive operating leverage. So we will continue to kind of keep an eye on not just normal budget hygiene, but actually seeing what more significant steps we can take over time. So as I said, a journey, not a destination. And I think '25 should have things moving in a better direction. But again, not a complete line of sight into that.

關於費用的話題，我想補充一點，我認為這確實是一個旅程，而不是目的地。我們總是必須考慮費用。我認為這不會是認真審視我們隨著時間的推移可以做些什麼的結束。我認為減少開支確實有雙重目的。一是創造投資能力，這仍然至關重要，現在可能比以往任何時候都更重要。其次，確保我們獲得積極的營運槓桿。因此，我們將繼續關注的不僅僅是正常的預算衛生，而且實際上看看隨著時間的推移我們可以採取哪些更重要的步驟。正如我所說，這是一段旅程，而不是目的地。我認為 25 應該會讓事情朝著更好的方向發展。但同樣，這並不是一個完整的視線。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is coming from Jon Arfstrom from RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Jon Arfstrom。

Question on your net interest income guide. What kind of rate assumptions do you have in that in any kind of rate scenario that you think derails that from what you're thinking today?

關於淨利息收入指南的問題。在您認為與您今天的想法不同的任何利率情境中，您有什麼樣的利率假設？

Yes, we did assume the 12/31 forward curve, which has almost 6 rate cuts in it. You'll notice on our asset sensitivity page that for the first time, that I can recall at least, we became liability sensitive. So I think this is a very fortuitous time for us to become liability sensitive with potentially 6 rate cuts out into the future. We do have the sensitivities there using a 60% beta. You can see that we do benefit from fall in rates, assuming that we can reprice as expected without too much of a lag. So I would say if we get fewer cuts than that, that will put a little pressure on that outlook. But we are benefiting from the 12/31 curve if we really do get those 6 cuts. So that's the assumption, and we'll continue to monitor, and we'll see where the economy and where the FOMC goes.

是的，我們確實假設了 12/31 遠期曲線，其中幾乎有 6 次降息。您會在我們的資產敏感性頁面上註意到，至少我記得，我們​​第一次變得對責任敏感。因此，我認為現在是我們變得對責任敏感的非常偶然的時刻，未來可能會有 6 次降息。我們使用 60% 的貝塔值確實具有敏感性。您可以看到，假設我們可以按預期重新定價而沒有太多滯後，我們確實會從利率下降中受益。所以我想說，如果我們的削減幅度少於這個數字，就會給前景帶來一些壓力。但如果我們真的實現了這 6 次削減，我們就會從 12/31 曲線中受益。這就是假設，我們將繼續監控，我們將看到經濟和聯邦公開市場委員會的走向。

Okay. Yes, a lot going on this morning. I had to rub my eyes when I saw that slide. I guess my -- one of my follow-up questions and maybe you answered it is, do you still consider yourself asset sensitive? And I guess the answer is no at this point?

好的。是的，今天早上發生了很多事情。當我看到那張幻燈片時，我不得不揉揉眼睛。我想我的後續問題之一，也許你的回答是，你仍然認為自己的資產敏感嗎？我想現在的答案是否定的？

That's what our models would say. You never know how customers are going to react, and the competition is going to react. But I would say we are a little more liability sensitive than we are asset sensitive. Now with that liability sensitive could have a little bit more of a lag in it than what we're projecting. We just don't know how customers and competition will react. But over the course of time, it does appear that we are a little more liability sensitive.

這就是我們的模型會說的。你永遠不知道顧客會如何反應，競爭對手也會如何反應。但我想說的是，我們對責任的敏感度比對資產的敏感度高。現在，由於責任敏感，可能會比我們預期的滯後。我們只是不知道客戶和競爭對手會如何反應。但隨著時間的推移，我們確實似乎對責任更加敏感了。

Okay. Point of clarification on the expense piece of it. Is it $45 million in '24, and an incremental $55 million in '25 or an incremental $10 million in 2025?

好的。關於其中費用部分的澄清點。是在 24 年增加 4500 萬美元，在 25 年增加 5500 萬美元，還是在 2025 年增加 1000 萬美元？

Incremental $10 million.

增量1000萬美元。

Okay. Okay. Good. And then, one, Melinda, I thought you'd get it pass, but I just -- I wanted to ask one credit question.

好的。好的。好的。然後，第一，梅琳達，我以為你會通過，但我只是 - 我想問一個信用問題。

Sure.

當然。

On Slide 13, that bottom right, corner where you show the percent criticized in TLS leverage than auto. Curious how elevated is that relative to normal. I don't know if there is a normal, but how elevated is that? And what does it take for those to come back down?

在投影片 13 的右下角，您顯示了 TLS 槓桿比 auto 受到批評的百分比。好奇相對於正常水平有多高。我不知道是否有正常值，但正常值是多少？怎麼樣才能讓這些人回來呢？

Yes. Thanks for the question. I mean, not surprisingly, but a positive surprise this quarter was that we actually saw improvement in 3 of the 4 incremental monitoring portfolio. So we saw balances and criticized assets go down in TLS leverage and automotive production. I would say that, that leverage portfolio at 10% to 12% is about normal. That is an elevated higher risk portfolio by its very design. TLS, again, it's going to be elevated above the normal portfolio at 18%. I would say that's still above sort of historical norm. But we are seeing positive momentum in TLS. Certainly, the rate environment, if it cooperates with the curve, it is going to be a real positive for that segment as well as leverage.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，這並不奇怪，但本季的一個積極驚喜是，我們實際上看到 4 個增量監控組合中的 3 個有所改善。因此，我們看到 TLS 槓桿和汽車生產的餘額和批評資產下降。我想說，10%到12%的槓桿投資組合是正常的。就其設計而言，這是一個較高風險的投資組合。 TLS 再次將高於正常投資組合 18%。我想說這仍然高於歷史正常水平。但我們看到 TLS 的正面動力。當然，利率環境如果與曲線配合，將對該細分市場和槓桿帶來真正的正面影響。

You didn't ask about commercial real estate specifically, but we did see that one relatively flat in the fourth quarter. So we've got some assets that are moving into the criticized bucket, but we also have assets that are moving out of the criticized bucket, and they move out when they either pay off or we remargin them and get them back into a conforming state. So I feel really good about all of those portfolios that are listed there on the right and would expect that we should -- again, if the rate environment cooperates and we don't see a downturn in the economy that we'll continue to see these stable to potentially improving towards the back half of the year.

您沒有具體詢問商業地產，但我們確實看到第四季度商業房地產相對持平。因此，我們有一些資產正在移入受批評的桶中，但我們也有一些資產正在從受批評的桶中移出，當它們還清或我們重新調整保證金並使它們恢復到一致狀態時，它們就會移出。 。因此，我對右側列出的所有投資組合感覺非常好，並且預計我們應該再次考慮，如果利率環境配合並且我們沒有看到經濟衰退，那麼我們將繼續看到這種情況這些穩定並可能在今年下半年有所改善。

next question today is coming from Steven Alexopoulos from JPMorgan.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂文·阿萊克索普洛斯。

So I want to start by going back to your answer to Peter's question, the first question on NIM. And it's funny. For all the years I've covered the company, I think you were the most asset sensitive. And if you look at the historical NIM range, it's literally all over the place. And Jim, what you've done now is you've basically restructured the balance sheet, so it's fairly neutral. Even if I look at this 100 basis point gradual and 60%, it's like 6 bps or so benefit to NIM. So assuming that we get here, let's say, the forward curve plays out, we go to 100 basis points or so of steepness. Does that imply your NIM, the new NIM for Comerica is like 3%, right (inaudible). I mean, a year ago, you were [374] I'm down a ton. And I'm trying to figure out like what the hell does the margin look like at this company with this balance sheet in a normal rate environment that has actual steepness to the curve? And you are basically a 3% margin bank now because you've taken away the asset sensitivity?

所以我想先回到你對 Peter 問題的回答，這是關於 NIM 的第一個問題。這很有趣。在我報道這家公司的這些年裡，我認為你是對資產最敏感的。如果您查看歷史上的 NIM 系列，您會發現它幾乎無處不在。吉姆，你現在所做的基本上是重組了資產負債表，所以它是相當中性的。即使我看這個 100 個基點漸進和 60%，這對 NIM 來說也有 6 個基點左右的好處。因此，假設我們到達這裡，假設遠期曲線出現，我們的陡度將達到 100 個基點左右。這是否意味著你的 NIM，Comerica 的新 NIM 大約是 3%，對吧（聽不清楚）。我的意思是，一年前，你 [374] 我情緒低落了很多。我試著弄清楚，在正常利率環境下，這家公司的資產負債表的利潤到底是什麼樣的，曲線其實很陡峭？你們現在基本上是一家保證金率為 3% 的銀行，因為你們已經取消了資產敏感度？

We have bounced around quite a bit over time, Steven, and we didn't necessarily think that was always a great thing. I do think stability is important. The rate environment is one factor. Again, just the overall construction on the balance sheet and the lumpiness in the amount of cash we're carrying or securities we're carrying is also a factor. And just again, our business model creates a little bit more lumpiness in that regard. So we would like a little bit more stability. As I mentioned in Peter's question, I do see our trajectory going north of where we ended here, and I think we'll continue to go north as we move through 2025. So we're above 3% on a normalized basis. And I think we are going to have a much more stable NIM and net interest income earnings capacity going forward. I don't necessarily want to give an exact number, but it is north of 3% for sure.

史蒂文，隨著時間的推移，我們經歷了很多變化，但我們並不一定認為這總是一件好事。我確實認為穩定很重要。利率環境是因素之一。同樣，資產負債表的整體結構以及我們持有的現金或證券數量的波動也是一個因素。再說一遍，我們的商業模式在這方面造成了更多的混亂。所以我們想要更多一點的穩定性。正如我在Peter 的問題中提到的，我確實看到我們的軌跡正在向北移動，我認為我們將在2025 年繼續向北移動。因此，在正常化的基礎上，我們的成長率很高於3%。我認為未來我們將擁有更穩定的淨利差和淨利息收入獲利能力。我不一定想給出確切的數字，但肯定在 3% 以上。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. But keep in mind, that's why generalist don't put their money in regional banks because the black box said the management team don't really help. Shed some light on what expectations are. I want to ask on expenses, too. So you guys are guiding to around 3% operating expense growth in 2024, and that's with the benefit of the new initiatives. Just a big picture view, why is expense growth at the company so much higher than other regionals? I'm sure you look at all the other regionals. It's higher.

好的。好的。這很有幫助。但請記住，這就是為什麼通才不會把錢存入地區銀行，因為黑盒子說管理團隊並沒有真正提供幫助。闡明期望是什麼。我也想問費用因此，你們指導 2024 年營運費用成長約 3%，這得益於新措施。從大局來看，為什麼該公司的費用成長遠高於其他地區？我相信您也看過所有其他地區。它更高。

And then if we think about 2025, if you don't announce another initiative, should we expect the growth rate to lift off of 3%?

然後，如果我們考慮到 2025 年，如果不宣布另一項舉措，我們是否應該預期成長率會上升 3%？

Many of the expenses that we have in 2024, a lot of the investment we're making is not ongoing run rate. A lot of it is more onetime effort to get some of these initiatives up and running, whether they're on the revenue side, the product side or the risk management framework side. So I wouldn't necessarily assume that the expenses that we are incurring in '24 all carry over to 2025. But we are in an investment mode. I mean, I think we may be underinvested in certain years if you go back historically. So I do think there's a little bit of catch-up going on, but we are committed to make sure that we can compete in the years coming forward. And we do think a certain amount of investment is required there, and we feel comfortable it's going to pay off.

我們在 2024 年的許多支出、我們所做的許多投資都不是持續運行率。其中許多都是一次性的努力來啟動和運行其中一些計劃，無論是在收入方面、產品方面還是風險管理框架方面。因此，我不一定會假設我們在 24 年產生的費用都會延續到 2025 年。但我們處於投資模式。我的意思是，如果你回顧歷史，我認為在某些年份我們可能會投資不足。因此，我確實認為存在一些追趕的情況，但我們致力於確保我們能夠在未來幾年中競爭。我們確實認為那裡需要一定數量的投資，而且我們相信它會得到回報。

Can you expand on that, Jim, like where did you underinvest and where are you catching up now?

吉姆，你能否詳細說明一下，例如你在哪些方面投資不足以及你現在在哪些方面正在迎頭趕上？

Well, I would say, #1, some of it is just moving with the times with the digitization and some of the online capabilities. But I would also say that whether it be risk management framework or some of the product innovation, I just don't think we necessarily always invested as much as we could have historically. And rather than trailing on that front, we'd rather be leading. So we think the easier thing to do would be to hunker down and just start the company, and that's not something we want to do. So we feel like we're doing the right thing, and we do feel like it's going to pay off a positive operating leverage as we move forward.

好吧，我想說，#1，其中一些只是隨著數位化和一些線上功能與時俱進。但我還要說，無論是風險管理框架還是一些產品創新，我認為我們不一定總是像歷史上那樣進行盡可能多的投資。我們寧願領先，也不願在這方面落後。因此，我們認為更容易做的事情就是靜下心來創辦公司，但這不是我們想要做的事情。因此，我們覺得我們正在做正確的事情，而且我們確實覺得隨著我們的前進，它將帶來積極的營運槓桿。

Got it.

知道了。

This is Curt. I just would add that we -- as I said earlier, we are focused on top line revenue growth. We believe we have opportunities on both the fee income side and with the loan portfolio. But certainly, if we do not see growth materializing, if the economy does not move in the right direction, if interest rates don't move in the right direction, allowing us to get some relief on deposit betas, et cetera, then we'll continue to look at expense opportunities.

這是柯特。我只是想補充一點，正如我之前所說，我們專注於營收成長。我們相信我們在費用收入和貸款組合方面都有機會。但當然，如果我們沒有看到增長實現，如果經濟沒有朝著正確的方向發展，如果利率沒有朝著正確的方向發展，從而使我們能夠在存款貝塔係數上得到一些緩解，等等，那麼我們'將繼續尋找支出機會。

I'd also add that part of this, from a risk framework standpoint, is continued investment in preparation of potentially being over $100 billion or if Basel III requirements step down to banks sub $100 billion kind of in our category at $86 billion.

我還想補充一點，從風險框架的角度來看，其中一部分是繼續投資，準備可能超過1000 億美元，或者如果巴塞爾協議III 的要求降至我們類別中低於1000 億美元的銀行，即860億美元。

Next question is coming from Chris McGratty from KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

On The expenses, Jim, I think you've talked historically about roughly $50 million for the $100 billion rules as you kind of know them today. How much -- I guess how much can you remind us how much you've accrued or is in the guide for 2024 related to that?

關於費用，吉姆，我認為您在歷史上曾談論過大約 5000 萬美元用於您今天所了解的 1000 億美元規則。我想您能提醒我們您已經累積了多少或在 2024 年指南中與此相關的金額嗎？

I would say we have a small portion of that in the guide for 2024. The vast majority of that $50 billion is probably more likely to be in future years as we get closer to $100 billion. But there are several million dollars in there as we really try to address those things a category for that we think have a longer runway to get ready for. So those items that we think would take, say, 2, 3, 4 years to really be ready, we're getting those things in motion now. There's a -- the majority of the category 4 requirements we either already have, or if we don't have them, we think we could complete them within 1 to 2 years. And so we're holding off on that.

我想說的是，我們在 2024 年的指南中只列出了其中的一小部分。隨著我們接近 1000 億美元，這 500 億美元中的絕大多數可能更有可能在未來幾年實現。但其中有數百萬美元，因為我們確實試圖解決這些問題，我們認為有更長的跑道需要準備。因此，我們認為那些需要 2、3、4 年才能真正準備好的項目，我們現在正在啟動這些項目。大多數 4 類要求我們要么已經滿足，要么如果我們沒有，我們認為我們可以在 1 到 2 年內完成它們。所以我們暫緩這一點。

So the majority of the $50 million is still out there in the future, but we do have some of that in the run rate in '23 and a little bit more in '24.

因此，5000 萬美元中的大部分仍然存在於未來，但我們確實在 23 年的運行率中有一些，在 24 年還有一點。

Okay. Great. And then maybe one for Curt. I think the Street's got you roughly a low teens return on tangible common equity in this year and next. Can you maybe elaborate on how you think of the return potential of this company? Obviously, you've got a much more stable margin over time, but you're also balancing some of the investments.

好的。偉大的。然後也許是給柯特的。我認為今年和明年華爾街的有形普通股回報率大約是十幾歲。您能否詳細說明一下您如何看待這家公司的回報潛力？顯然，隨著時間的推移，您的利潤率會更加穩定，但您也會平衡一些投資。

Yes. I wouldn't maybe give a forecast exactly around returns or even multiples on the company. But I would say that we believe that based on the comments we made earlier, certainly '23 was a disruptive year and a reset for the industry in '24, I think, is some recalibration. I believe that interest rates are going to come down. And when they do, I think it will have a positive impact on NII for us. And we believe, as we said earlier, that in the latter half or second half of the year that we will start seeing NII return. We think we've got great opportunities on the fee income side, and we showed that in 2023. And we think we've got good growth opportunities in terms of the loan portfolio. And so our goal is to get to positive operating leverage and believe that we can either return at a level that's commensurate with the industry overall or better from a longer-term perspective. But '24 will be somewhat of a continued inflection year.

是的。我可能不會對公司的報酬甚至倍數做出準確的預測。但我想說的是，我們相信，根據我們之前發表的評論，23 年無疑是顛覆性的一年，我認為 24 年行業的重置是一些重新調整。我相信利率將會下降。當他們這樣做時，我認為這將對我們的 NII 產生積極影響。正如我們之前所說，我們相信，在今年下半年，我們將開始看到 NII 回歸。我們認為我們在費用收入方面有很大的機會，我們在 2023 年證明了這一點。我們認為我們在貸款組合方面有良好的成長機會。因此，我們的目標是獲得積極的營運槓桿，並相信我們能夠獲得與整個行業相稱的水平的回報，或從長期角度來看更好的回報。但 24 年將是持續的轉折年。

Next question today is coming from Brody Preston from UBS.

今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布羅迪普雷斯頓。

Jim, I was hoping maybe you could help we nail down the cadence of the kind of BSBY swap amortization, the accretion in the NII. How much of that -- I think you said most of it's in '25 and then in mid-'26 but How much of it happens in 2024? And then how much happens in '25 and '26?

吉姆，我希望你能幫助我們確定 BSBY 掉期攤銷（NII 增加）的節奏。其中有多少——我想你說大部分發生在 25 年，然後是 26 年中期，但有多少發生在 2024 年？那麼 25 年和 26 年發生了多少事？

we don't have a 100% clear line of sight into that because out of those $7 billion of BSBY hedges or hedges dedicated to BSBY loans, a little less than $3 billion of them are not redesignated yet because we have not generated enough SOFR loans to redesignate those particular hedges. We do expect to have that complete or at least largely complete by the end of the first quarter. And I think at that point, we'll actually have a fair amount of certainty as to how it lays out. But in general, the way it looks right now in the forward curve and this is exclusive of what I offered in the guidance because, again, there's a lot of uncertainty there, there was likely a very -- somewhat mild negative impact in 2024. To the extent there is any kind of negative impact, you just accrete that back in later years. So again, it's not an economic loss.

我們對此沒有 100% 清晰的視野，因為在這 70 億美元的 BSBY 對沖或專門用於 BSBY 貸款的對沖中，其中不到 30 億美元尚未重新指定，因為我們尚未產生足夠的 SOFR 貸款重新指定那些特定的對沖。我們確實預計在第一季末之前完成或至少大部分完成。我認為到那時，我們實際上會對它的佈局有相當大的確定性。但總的來說，目前的遠期曲線看起來不包括我在指導中提供的內容，因為同樣存在很多不確定性，2024 年可能會產生非常輕微的負面影響。如果有任何負面影響，你只會在以後的幾年累積它。再說一次，這不是經濟損失。

And then we are very likely to get the vast majority of it back in 2025. Think of it as maybe north of 80% of that loss accreted back in 2025. And then most of the remaining after that would come in 2026.

然後我們很可能會在 2025 年收回其中的絕大多數。可以認為它可能超過 2025 年累積損失的 80%。然後，此後剩餘的大部分將在 2026 年收回。

Got it. That's helpful. I guess if I can just ask one fine point just on the first quarter with the redesignation. Should we see something similar to what we saw this quarter, maybe not in terms of size, but just directionally, where there's a negative kind of nonoperating impact to fee income and maybe a small positive impact to NII?

知道了。這很有幫助。我想我是否可以在第一季重新命名時問一個要點。我們是否應該看到與本季度類似的情況，也許不是在規模方面，而是在方向上，即對費用收入產生負面的非經營性影響，並且可能對國家資訊基礎設施產生微小的積極影響？

It really depends on the rate curve that's going to drive it, maybe to a lesser extent, the timing of when we redesignate. Certainly, it's going to be a small fraction of what you saw in the fourth quarter. And again, whatever you do see, we'll simply accrete back in future quarters. So I don't think there's -- I know there won't be any kind of economic surprise there. But from an accounting and recognition standpoint, there will be a little volatility in the first quarter. And again, we'll accrete that back in later quarters and likely mostly in 2025. But a little bit of volatility in Q1, but also a large amount, if not complete certainty after Q1 also, and we can lay out that exact guidance and cadence.

這實際上取決於驅動它的利率曲線，也許在較小程度上取決於我們重新指定的時間。當然，這只是你在第四季看到的一小部分。再說一遍，無論您看到什麼，我們都會在未來幾季中累積。所以我認為不會有任何經濟意外。但從會計和確認的角度來看，第一季將會出現一些波動。再說一次，我們將在後面幾個季度（可能主要是在2025 年）增加這一點。但是第一季會出現一點波動，但第一季之後也會有很大的波動（如果不是完全確定的話） ，我們可以製定準確的指導和節奏。

Got it. So you don't have the dollar impact for the first quarter -- an estimate for the dollar impact to NII for the first quarter yet from this -- from the BSBY stuff?

知道了。所以你還沒有從 BSBY 的資料中得到第一季美元影響——對第一季美元對 NII 影響的估計？

We don't. We need for the dust to settle in terms of just getting the rest of these redesignated and where the rate curves will drive that. And again, we'll be made whole ultimately over the next couple of years.

我們不這樣做。我們需要塵埃落定，重新指定其餘的這些，以及利率曲線將推動這一點。再說一次，我們最終將在接下來的幾年裡變得完整。

Got it. Okay. If I could ask just another one on the NII guide for the year. I think you said it was a 60% beta that you were running through the guidance. Do you happen to have what the noninterest-bearing deposit mix that's underlying the guidance is for next year?

知道了。好的。我可否再問一下今年 NII 指南上的另一個問題。我想你說過你正在運行指導的 60% 測試版。您是否知道明年的無利息存款組合是指導方針的基礎？

Yes. We continue to think that we're going to bottom out in the low 40s or very near 40%. So we've been pretty consistent on that over the last 2 to 3 quarters. Of course, a big driver of that isn't so much even just noninterest-bearing deposits, but where interest-bearing goes. And we do plan on having great success with interest-bearing deposits as it relates to customers. On the other hand, at some point, we probably will pay down some of these broker deposits that we have because it's really a form of wholesale funding that all banks make some degree of use of. So the overall level of interest-bearing will, of course, play some optical games with that percentage, but our base case is to be in the low 40s towards nearing that 40% point.

是的。我們仍然認為，我們將在 40 多歲或接近 40% 的水平觸底。因此，在過去的 2 到 3 個季度中，我們在這方面一直非常一致。當然，其中一個重要的推動因素不僅僅是無息存款，而是有息存款的去向。我們確實計劃在與客戶相關的計息存款方面取得巨大成功。另一方面，在某個時候，我們可能會償還我們擁有的一些經紀人存款，因為這實際上是所有銀行都在某種程度上使用的批發融資形式。因此，當然，整體生息水平會以這個百分比進行一些光學遊戲，但我們的基本情況是在 40 左右，接近 40%。

Okay. And then I did just want to ask on the liability-sensitive disclosure. Could you maybe help me think about the moving parts that make you liability sensitive just because like if I just simply looked at you versus a lot of your peers with 40%, 41%, 42%, whatever it is right now, NIB and still effectively 60%, I think, floating rate loans, like both of those items -- 60% might be closer to what I would call regional bank on average for floating rate loans, but the 42% NIB is still above average. So I would holistically think about you as being mildly asset-sensitive, but what are the moving parts elsewhere on the balance sheet that push you towards liability sensitivity?

好的。然後我只是想問一下責任敏感的披露問題。你能不能幫我想想那些讓你對責任敏感的活動部分，因為就像我只是簡單地看看你和你的很多同行相比，40%、41%、42%，無論現在是什麼，NIB還是仍然我認為，實際上60% 的浮動利率貸款，就像這兩個項目一樣——60% 可能更接近我所說的區域銀行浮動利率貸款的平均水平，但42% 的NIB 仍然高於平均水平。因此，我總體上認為您對資產較為敏感，但資產負債表上其他地方的哪些變化因素促使您對負債敏感？

Yes, that's a good point, and we do stick out in a very good way with our high level of noninterest-bearing deposits in the mix. Where we also stand out and because we have that higher level of noninterest-bearing deposits, we did put more swaps and securities on the book to manage to a more interest-neutral position over the last year. And so that's exactly why we added those hedges. And that's what's offering us the protection in a down rate environment.

是的，這是一個很好的觀點，而且我們確實以非常好的方式脫穎而出，因為我們的無息存款水平很高。我們也脫穎而出，因為我們擁有更高水準的無息存款，我們確實在帳簿上投入了更多的掉期和證券，以在去年實現更利率中立的頭寸。這就是我們添加這些對沖的原因。這就是為什麼在降價環境中為我們提供保護的原因。

Okay. So it's mostly the hedges then, I guess, combined with (inaudible) securities balances?

好的。那我猜主要是對沖，再加上（聽不清楚）證券餘額？

Yes. I mean it's the -- we always look at it holistically between both the hedges we put on in the form of both swaps and securities. But that's the balancing x factor to your equation there.

是的。我的意思是，我們總是從整體上看待我們以掉期和證券形式進行的對沖。但這是你的方程式的平衡 x 因子。

Got it. And then last one for me is just around the brokered deposits. I think the guidance assumes flat brokered deposits moving forward. I guess, would you look to use the securities maturities kind of exclusively to pay down borrowings? Or is there opportunity to kind of run off broker deposits next year, even though it's not contemplated in the guide?

知道了。對我來說，最後一項就是關於經紀存款。我認為該指導意見假設經紀存款將繼續發展。我想，您會希望僅使用證券到期日來償還借款嗎？或者明年是否有機會耗盡經紀人存款，即使指南中沒有考慮到這一點？

Yes. I would say the runoff of securities will be used for a combination of funding loan growth and reducing wholesale funding. And I think of wholesale funding is both being some of the debt borrowings like FHLB, any security maturities we might have or bond maturities we might have and broker deposit maturities. So -- but we still a mixture that goes on there in terms of the overall formula. But I suspect, over time, and it's actually a goal of ours, to reduce brokered deposits over time. So at some point, you will see a reduction there. And securities maturities will be one of the inputs to that equation.

是的。我想說的是，證券的徑流將用於為貸款成長提供資金並減少批發資金。我認為批發融資既包括 FHLB 等債務借款，也包括我們可能擁有的任何證券到期日或我們可能擁有的債券到期日以及經紀人存款到期日。所以，但就整體公式而言，我們仍然是一種混合物。但我懷疑，隨著時間的推移，這實際上是我們的目標，隨著時間的推移減少經紀存款。所以在某個時候，你會看到那裡的減少。證券到期日將成為此等式的輸入之一。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to President, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Curt.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想把發言權交還給總裁、董事長兼執行長科特。

Let me again thank everyone for joining us today. As always, thank you for your interest in our company, in Comerica, and I hope you have a nice day.

讓我再次感謝大家今天加入我們。一如既往，感謝您對我們公司、Comerica 的興趣，祝您有個愉快的一天。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。