Comerica Inc (CMA) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Comerica First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

你好，謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到 Comerica 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Kelly Gage, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係總監 Kelly Gage。請繼續。

Thanks, Leah. Good morning, and welcome to Comerica's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman and CEO, Curt Farmer; Chief Financial Officer, Jim Herzog; Chief Credit Officer, Melinda Chausse; and Chief Director of Banking, Peter Sefzik.

謝謝，利亞。早上好，歡迎來到 Comerica 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。參加此次電話會議的有我們的總裁、董事長兼首席執行官 Curt Farmer；首席財務官吉姆·赫爾佐格；首席信貸官，Melinda Chausse；和銀行業首席董事 Peter Sefzik。

During this presentation, we'll be referring to slides, which provide additional details. The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC's website as well as in the Investor Relations section of our website, comerica.com.

在本次演示中，我們將參考幻燈片，其中提供了更多詳細信息。演示幻燈片和我們的新聞稿可在 SEC 網站以及我們網站 comerica.com 的投資者關係部分獲取。

This conference call contains forward-looking statements. And in that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially from expectations. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor statement on today's earnings release on Slide 2, which is incorporated into this call, as well as our SEC filings for factors that can cause actual results to differ.

本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。在這方面，您應該注意可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。前瞻性陳述僅在本演示文稿發布之日有效，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。請參閱本次電話會議中包含的今天幻燈片 2 上收益發布的安全港聲明，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，了解可能導致實際結果不同的因素。

Also, this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures. And in that regard, I will direct you to the reconciliation of these measures in the earnings materials that are available on our website, comerica.com.

此外，本次電話會議將參考非 GAAP 指標。在這方面，我將指導您在我們網站 comerica.com 上提供的收益材料中協調這些措施。

Now I'll turn the call over to Curt, who will begin on Slide 3.

現在我將把電話轉給 Curt，他將從幻燈片 3 開始。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Today, we reported first quarter earnings per share of $2.39, driven by continued loan growth, a favorable rate environment and effective management of balance sheet, credit and capital.

大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。今天，在貸款持續增長、有利的利率環境以及資產負債表、信貸和資本的有效管理的推動下，我們報告第一季度每股收益為 2.39 美元。

Despite the recent industry disruption, we affirm the strength of our core deposit base by successfully retaining our relationships. While we saw some deposit pressure, it was predominantly localized and very manageable. Our prudent risk management had us well prepared. Our effective liquidity strategy allowed us to remain laser-focused on seamlessly supporting customers as we open a significant number of new accounts.

儘管最近行業出現混亂，但我們通過成功保持我們的關係來確認我們核心存款基礎的實力。雖然我們看到了一些存款壓力，但它主要是本地化的並且非常易於管理。我們審慎的風險管理讓我們做好了充分的準備。我們有效的流動性策略使我們能夠在開設大量新賬戶時始終專注於無縫支持客戶。

We remain focused on business as usual, winning new opportunities, attracting talent, underwriting credit and expanding relationships. We believe our strong deposit franchise is now even more attractive and stable with a lower percentage of uninsured excess deposits and less concentration with price-sensitive customers.

我們仍然專注於一如既往的業務，贏得新機會，吸引人才，承銷信貸和擴大關係。我們相信，我們強大的存款業務現在更具吸引力和穩定性，未投保的超額存款比例較低，對價格敏感的客戶集中度較低。

Moving to a summary of our results on Slide 4. Broad-based loan growth and increased noninterest income exceeds expectations. Credit remained a key strength for the quarter. And although we saw modest migration, we were starting from very low levels. Despite some pressures related to funding costs and expenses, we maintained a solid efficiency ratio and produced a robust ROE and Tier 1 capital ratio.

轉到我們在幻燈片 4 上的結果摘要。基礎廣泛的貸款增長和非利息收入的增加超出了預期。信貸仍然是本季度的一個關鍵優勢。儘管我們看到了適度的遷移，但我們是從非常低的水平開始的。儘管存在與融資成本和費用相關的一些壓力，但我們保持了穩定的效率比率，並產生了強勁的 ROE 和一級資本比率。

Complementing our compelling financial results, we achieved significant milestones, including our new partnership with Ameriprise, aimed at further elevating our Wealth Management customer experience, digital tools and capabilities. The launch of our new investment banking group and the national expansion of our Small Business banking platform strengthened our solutions for customers throughout their life cycle.

除了我們引人注目的財務業績，我們還實現了重要的里程碑，包括我們與 Ameriprise 的新合作夥伴關係，旨在進一步提升我們的財富管理客戶體驗、數字工具和能力。我們新的投資銀行集團的推出和我們小企業銀行平台的全國擴張加強了我們在客戶整個生命週期中為客戶提供的解決方案。

Further, these initiatives advance the priority of increasing our mix of noncapital consuming fee income. Turning to Slide 5. We generated earnings of $324 million or $2.39 per share in the first quarter. Average loans grew almost $1.1 billion. Average deposits decreased $3.5 billion due primarily to normal first quarter seasonality and customer utilization of funds related to Fed monetary actions.

此外，這些舉措推進了增加我們的非資本消費費用收入組合的優先事項。轉到幻燈片 5。我們在第一季度創造了 3.24 億美元或每股 2.39 美元的收益。平均貸款增長近 11 億美元。平均存款減少 35 億美元，主要是由於第一季度的正常季節性和與美聯儲貨幣行動相關的客戶資金使用。

Credit quality outperformed with net recoveries in our criticized loan percentages remained well below our historical average. Expenses were elevated due to pension and several larger notable items, but we maintained a solid efficiency ratio. Et al, we retained our strong capital position with an estimated CET1 ratio of 10.09%. It was a remarkable quarter for Comerica, and I'm excited about our future and our ability to support our customers while delivering compelling results for our shareholders.

信貸質量表現優於我們批評的貸款百分比的淨回收率仍遠低於我們的歷史平均水平。由於養老金和幾個較大的顯著項目，費用有所增加，但我們保持了穩定的效率比。等，我們保持了強大的資本狀況，估計 CET1 比率為 10.09%。對於 Comerica 來說，這是一個非凡的季度，我對我們的未來以及我們支持客戶同時為股東帶來令人矚目的成果的能力感到興奮。

And now I'll turn the call over to Jim, who will review the quarter in more detail.

現在我將電話轉給吉姆，他將更詳細地審查該季度。

Thanks, Curt, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 6. Broad-based loan growth exceeded expectations as average balances increased 2%. Commitments grew across most business lines, up 2% from the fourth quarter of 2022. Utilization increased modestly to 46%, but remained below historical averages.

謝謝，柯特，大家早上好。轉到幻燈片 6。基礎廣泛的貸款增長超出預期，因為平均餘額增長了 2%。大多數業務線的承諾都有所增長，比 2022 年第四季度增長了 2%。利用率小幅上升至 46%，但仍低於歷史平均水平。

Growth in our Commercial Real Estate business of over $640 million, continued to be driven largely by construction of multifamily and industrial projects originated over the last 2 years in addition to the slower pace of payoffs. Our Commercial Real Estate strategy remains highly selective with a focus on Class A projects, and our office exposure is limited.

我們的商業房地產業務增長超過 6.4 億美元，繼續主要受到過去 2 年發起的多戶住宅和工業項目的建設以及回報速度放緩的推動。我們的商業房地產戰略仍然高度選擇性，重點是 A 級項目，我們的辦公室曝光率有限。

National Dealer Services loans grew over $360 million as a result of new relationships and continued customer M&A. Both Management and Middle Market also contributed to our strong loan growth. Elevated interest rates, lack of housing inventory and normal seasonality continue to pressure mortgage banker as average loans declined $184 million for the quarter. The MBA forecast expects higher volumes in the second and third quarters, consistent with the normal spring and summer buying season.

由於新關係和持續的客戶併購，全國經銷商服務貸款增長超過 3.6 億美元。管理層和中間市場也為我們強勁的貸款增長做出了貢獻。由於本季度平均貸款下降 1.84 億美元，利率升高、住房庫存不足和正常的季節性繼續給抵押貸款銀行家帶來壓力。 MBA 預測預計第二和第三季度的銷量會增加，這與正常的春季和夏季購買季節一致。

Slide 7 provides an overview of our deposit activity. Quarter-to-date deposits through the first week of March trended in line with guidance as customers continued to deploy funds into their business and we experienced expected seasonality. Following the March industry events, excess balance diversification efforts by our customers further impacted deposits. We saw a peak impact in the days immediately following, concentrated in certain customers with balances well in excess of their operational needs.

幻燈片 7 概述了我們的存款活動。隨著客戶繼續將資金部署到他們的業務中，我們經歷了預期的季節性，截至 3 月第一周的季度至今存款趨勢與指導一致。繼 3 月的行業事件之後，我們客戶的超額餘額多元化努力進一步影響了存款。我們在接下來的幾天裡看到了最大的影響，集中在某些餘額遠遠超過其運營需求的客戶身上。

Outflows moderated. And in the last 2 weeks of March, we saw a return to a more normal pattern, and that trend has continued. The greatest outflows were localized in select portfolios with a muted impact across the rest of our businesses. Despite on-boarding new customers in TLS, balances declined as this disruptive sector diversified deposits. Portfolios with larger-than-average deposit relationships, such as corporate banking and select customers in Middle Market California, also saw diversification within a portion of their excess balances. These 3 business lines saw disproportionately high deposit growth through quantitative easing and much of the decline offset that increase.

資金流出有所緩和。在 3 月的最後兩週，我們看到了回歸到更正常的模式，而且這種趨勢還在繼續。最大的資金流出集中在特定的投資組合中，對我們其他業務的影響不大。儘管在 TLS 中吸引了新客戶，但由於這一顛覆性行業使存款多樣化，餘額有所下降。存款關係大於平均水平的投資組合，例如加利福尼亞州中部市場的公司銀行業務和精選客戶，也在其部分超額餘額中實現了多元化。通過量化寬鬆政策，這 3 個業務線的存款增長不成比例，大部分下降抵消了這一增長。

Utilization of an FDIC reciprocal deposit product was an effective strategy. And through quarter end, our customers placed $2 billion in balances in that solution. Deposit diversification efforts were concentrated in more price-sensitive customers, and the increase in deposit pricing to 152 basis points was driven by the cumulative impact in previous pricing changes. Our strategic relationship focus was proven successful as we retained and in fact grew our total number of core deposit relationships.

使用 FDIC 互惠存款產品是一種有效的策略。到季度末，我們的客戶在該解決方案中放置了 20 億美元的餘額。存款多元化努力集中於對價格更敏感的客戶，存款定價上調至 152 個基點是受之前定價變化的累積影響推動的。我們的戰略關係重點被證明是成功的，因為我們保留並實際上增加了核心存款關係的總數。

Slide 8 highlights the strength of our core deposit franchise. It is important to note how elevated deposit levels have been since 2020. With that context, our current position is much stronger than prior to the pandemic as we have higher overall deposits, a better loan-to-deposit ratio and a lower percentage of uninsured deposits. Some look to uninsured deposits as the primary metric to detect risk of elevated outflows. However, we believe a more comprehensive view is appropriate.

幻燈片 8 突出了我們核心存款業務的優勢。重要的是要注意自 2020 年以來存款水平的上升程度。在這種背景下，我們目前的狀況比大流行之前要強得多，因為我們的總存款更高，貸存比更好，未投保的比例更低存款。一些人將未投保的存款視為檢測資金外流增加風險的主要指標。然而，我們認為更全面的觀點是合適的。

As a commercial bank, it is natural to have a higher relative percentage of uninsured deposits, the majority of which are noninterest-bearing, which we view as a key strength and a proxy for operating accounts. With 95% of our commercial noninterest-bearing deposits utilizing treasury management services at an average of more than 7 treasury management products for a Middle Market customer, we are integrated with our customers' daily operations. We feel our market and business diversification, favorable deposit mix, commercial orientation and connectivity into our customers' operations combined to create greater relative stability in our deposit base.

作為一家商業銀行，未投保存款的相對比例較高是很自然的，其中大部分是無息存款，我們認為這是一個關鍵優勢，也是經營賬戶的一個指標。我們 95% 的商業無息存款使用資金管理服務，平均為中間市場客戶提供超過 7 種資金管理產品，我們與客戶的日常運營相結合。我們認為我們的市場和業務多元化、有利的存款組合、商業導向和與客戶業務的連通性相結合，為我們的存款基礎創造了更大的相對穩定性。

We see opportunities to even further improve the resiliency of our deposits, including strategic investments underway to enhance payments, digital customer transformation and wealth management, in addition to our national Small Business banking strategy, which should drive granular deposit growth over time. Ultimately, our deposit base has always been and continues to be a differentiating strength, and we expect even more stability with a more favorable level of uninsured and a high percentage of operating deposits.

我們看到了進一步提高存款彈性的機會，包括正在進行的戰略投資，以加強支付、數字客戶轉型和財富管理，此外還有我們的國家小企業銀行戰略，這應該會隨著時間的推移推動精細的存款增長。歸根結底，我們的存款基礎一直並將繼續成為差異化優勢，我們預計隨著未投保存款的更有利水平和更高比例的運營存款而更加穩定。

Successful execution of our liquidity strategy proved effective, as shown on Slide 9. Following the industry events in March, we conservatively increased our cash position and our abundant liquidity allowed uninterrupted support of our customers and business-as-usual operations. Our quarter-end loan-to-deposit ratio was 85%, remaining below our 15-year average. And very light unsecured funding maturities create flexibility to manage funding needs and cash levels over time.

如幻燈片 9 所示，我們的流動性策略的成功執行被證明是有效的。繼 3 月份的行業事件之後，我們保守地增加了現金頭寸，我們充裕的流動性允許不間斷地支持我們的客戶和照常運營。我們的季末貸存比為 85%，仍低於我們 15 年的平均水平。非常輕的無擔保融資到期日創造了隨著時間的推移管理融資需求和現金水平的靈活性。

Period-end balances in our securities portfolio on Slide 10 declined over $700 million as paid down some maturities offset the positive mark-to-market adjustment of $309 million. The total unrealized loss after tax of $2.1 billion affects our book value but not our regulatory capital ratios. Our securities strategy remains unchanged as we stopped reinvesting in the third quarter of 2022. From that peak through the end of 2024, we expect natural portfolio attrition of approximately $4 billion and a 42% improvement in unrealized securities losses. We maintain our entire portfolio as available for sale, providing full transparency and management flexibility. As our portfolios pledge to enhance our liquidity position, we do not foresee any need to sell our portfolio and therefore, unrealized losses should not impact income.

我們在幻燈片 10 上的證券投資組合的期末餘額下降了 7 億多美元，因為一些期限的償還抵消了 3.09 億美元的正市值調整。 21 億美元的稅後未實現虧損總額影響我們的賬面價值，但不影響我們的監管資本比率。我們的證券策略保持不變，因為我們在 2022 年第三季度停止了再投資。從那個高峰期到 2024 年底，我們預計投資組合自然流失約 40 億美元，未實現證券損失減少 42%。我們將整個投資組合保持為可供出售狀態，提供完全的透明度和管理靈活性。由於我們的投資組合承諾提高我們的流動性頭寸，我們預計不需要出售我們的投資組合，因此，未實現的損失不應影響收入。

Turning to Slide 11. Net interest income decreased $34 million to $708 million, as the benefit of higher rates and loan volume were offset by the impact of lower deposit balances, deposit pricing and fewer days. We still saw a net positive impact due to rising rates and net interest income remained incredibly strong relative to our historical results.

轉到幻燈片 11。淨利息收入減少 3400 萬美元至 7.08 億美元，這是因為較高的利率和貸款量的好處被較低的存款餘額、存款定價和較少天數的影響所抵消。由於利率上升，我們仍然看到了淨積極影響，並且相對於我們的歷史結果，淨利息收入仍然非常強勁。

Slide 12 demonstrates our desirable interest rate sensitivity profile. Successful execution of our strategy and the current composition of our balance sheet favorably positioned us with minimal negative exposure to a gradual 100 basis points or 50 basis points on average decline in interest rates.

幻燈片 12 展示了我們理想的利率敏感性概況。我們戰略的成功執行和我們資產負債表的當前構成使我們在利率逐漸下降 100 個基點或平均下降 50 個基點時的負風險最小化。

As intended, our strong net interest income stream is now more insulated from rate reductions. Credit quality continues to be a strength of our franchise and remained excellent, as outlined on Slide 13 with $2 million in net recoveries. Nonaccrual loans declined and inflows to nonaccruals remained low at $9 million. Loan growth and the weakening economic outlook drove the $30 million provision and the allowance for credit losses to increase modestly to 1.26%. Criticized loans increased but remained well below historical levels, as we saw expected credit normalization and portfolios prone to pressure from the elevated rate environment.

正如預期的那樣，我們強勁的淨利息收入流現在更不受利率下降的影響。信用質量仍然是我們特許經營權的優勢，並且保持出色，如幻燈片 13 中所述，淨回收額為 200 萬美元。非應計貸款下降，流入非應計項目的資金仍保持在 900 萬美元的低位。貸款增長和疲軟的經濟前景推動 3000 萬美元的準備金和信貸損失準備金小幅增加至 1.26%。受到批評的貸款有所增加，但仍遠低於歷史水平，因為我們看到預期的信貸正常化和投資組合容易受到高利率環境的壓力。

Office is not part of our primary strategy, only making up 7% of our total Commercial Real Estate line of business. Of this limited office exposure, a majority of suburban with strong contractual financial support from sponsors. Within the overall Commercial Real Estate portfolio, pressure from the elevated rate environment contributed to a modest increase in criticized loans, and we expect continued manageable migration in the coming quarters.

寫字樓不是我們主要戰略的一部分，僅占我們商業房地產業務總量的 7%。在這種有限的辦公室曝光中，大多數郊區都有來自讚助商的強大合同財務支持。在整個商業房地產投資組合中，加息環境帶來的壓力導致受批評的貸款適度增加，我們預計未來幾個季度將繼續進行可控的遷移。

Robust fee generation increased noninterest income by $4 million relative to a seasonally high fourth quarter of 2022, as shown on Slide 14. Capital markets income grew $5 million and is now distinguished in our reporting to reflect the investment and opportunity in that business. Derivative income and investment banking offset the seasonal lighter quarter for syndication fees.

如幻燈片 14 所示，與 2022 年第四季度的季節性高位相比，強勁的費用產生使非利息收入增加了 400 萬美元。資本市場收入增長了 500 萬美元，現在在我們的報告中表現突出，以反映該業務的投資和機會。衍生品收入和投資銀行業務抵消了銀團費用的季節性淡季。

Brokerage benefited from the rate environment, and strategic private wealth investments contributed to growth in fiduciary income. Continued expansion of our noncapital consuming fee income remains a priority. And with growth in nearly every customer category, we are excited to see the results from this emphasis.

經紀業務受益於利率環境，戰略性私人財富投資促進了受託收入的增長。繼續擴大我們的非資本消耗費用收入仍然是一個優先事項。隨著幾乎每個客戶類別的增長，我們很高興看到這種重視的結果。

Turning to expenses on Slide 15. We had a number of notable expenses in the quarter, including $16 million related to modernization initiatives, $9 million of which were attributable to the Ameriprise transition. While litigation-related expenses and operating losses were elevated, the largest drivers related to isolated events.

轉到幻燈片 15 上的費用。本季度我們有一些值得注意的費用，包括與現代化計劃相關的 1600 萬美元，其中 900 萬美元可歸因於 Ameriprise 過渡。雖然與訴訟相關的費用和運營虧損有所增加，但最大的驅動因素與孤立事件有關。

Quarter-over-quarter, non-salary pension expense increased $17 million, as expected. Salaries and benefits increased $8 million, driven by higher stock-based compensation with first quarter grants, inflationary pressures and attracting talent. FDIC insurance increased $6 million, driven by the higher statutory assessment rate and the impact of funding late in the quarter.

正如預期的那樣，非薪金養老金支出環比增加了 1700 萬美元。工資和福利增加了 800 萬美元，這是由於第一季度贈款、通貨膨脹壓力和吸引人才帶來的更高的基於股票的薪酬。 FDIC 保險增加了 600 萬美元，這是由於更高的法定評估率和本季度末資金的影響。

Occupancy came down $12 million with a reduction in lease termination fees, lower rental expense and a seasonal change in property tax rates. Both consulting and advertising declined in the seasonally high fourth quarter. With a track record of proven discipline, we are committed to carefully managing expenses, balancing necessary investments for the future and overall earnings power in order to maintain a solid efficiency ratio over time.

由於租賃終止費的減少、租金支出的減少以及財產稅率的季節性變化，入住率下降了 1200 萬美元。諮詢和廣告業務在季節性高的第四季度均出現下滑。憑藉久經考驗的紀律記錄，我們致力於謹慎管理費用，平衡未來必要的投資和整體盈利能力，以便隨著時間的推移保持穩定的效率比。

Slide 16 provides details on capital management. Strong profitability continued to generate significant capital to support loan growth. Our CET1 is estimated at 10.09%, above our target, and we were excited to announce a 4% increase in our quarterly dividend for common stock paid April 1. Our conservative excess cash position impacted our tangible common equity ratio, adjusting for our cash, increase -- we've increased over the fourth quarter in AOCI. Our first quarter TCE ratio would have increased to 9.47%.

幻燈片 16 提供了有關資本管理的詳細信息。強勁的盈利能力繼續產生大量資本來支持貸款增長。我們的 CET1 估計為 10.09%，高於我們的目標，我們很高興地宣布 4 月 1 日支付的普通股季度股息增加 4%。我們保守的過剩現金頭寸影響了我們的有形普通股權益比率，根據我們的現金進行調整，增加——我們在第四季度增加了 AOCI。我們第一季度的 TCE 比率將增加到 9.47%。

Expected loan growth, profitability and any potential regulatory changes will continue to be carefully considered as we manage our capital strategy. Our outlook for 2023 is on Slide 17 and assumes no significant changes in the economic environment. We expect momentum, especially in our Commercial Real Estate and National Dealer Services business, to drive average 2023 loan growth of 8% to 9%.

在我們管理我們的資本戰略時，將繼續仔細考慮預期的貸款增長、盈利能力和任何潛在的監管變化。我們對 2023 年的展望在幻燈片 17 中，並假設經濟環境沒有重大變化。我們預計勢頭，尤其是我們的商業房地產和全國經銷商服務業務，將推動 2023 年貸款平均增長 8% 至 9%。

We continue to expect growth in most businesses, but plan to be appropriately selective supporting opportunities most aligned with our target credit, pricing and relationship strategy. Our estimated average year-over-year deposit decline of 12% to 14% assumes continued stabilization and reflects the impact from Fed monetary actions that began last year in addition to the first quarter industry events.

我們繼續期待大多數業務的增長，但計劃適當選擇最符合我們目標信用、定價和關係戰略的支持機會。我們估計的平均存款同比下降 12% 至 14% 假設持續穩定並反映了美聯儲去年開始的貨幣行動以及第一季度行業事件的影響。

Despite the impact of funding, we still project net interest income to be at an all-time high, growing 6% to 7% over a record 2022 performance. Through effective execution of our balance sheet strategy and based on our current composition, we delivered on our objective to limit rate exposure and protect a high level of net interest income.

儘管受到資金的影響，我們仍預計淨利息收入將創歷史新高，在創紀錄的 2022 年業績基礎上增長 6% 至 7%。通過有效執行我們的資產負債表戰略，並根據我們目前的構成，我們實現了限制利率敞口和保護高水平淨利息收入的目標。

Credit quality has been excellent, and we expect it to remain strong. We continue to forecast net charge-offs at the lower end of our normal 20 to 40 basis points range and expect a gradual normalization in credit metrics. We expect strong noninterest income performance to drive 6% to 7% growth over 2022. Customer-related income is projected to increase, particularly in card due to our payment strategy and fiduciary income, which benefits from rates and investments in wealth management.

信用質量一直很好，我們預計它會保持強勁。我們繼續預測淨註銷將處於正常 20 至 40 個基點範圍的低端，並預計信用指標將逐漸正常化。我們預計強勁的非利息收入表現將在 2022 年推動 6% 至 7% 的增長。與客戶相關的收入預計會增加，特別是由於我們的支付策略和受託收入，這得益於我們的支付策略和受託收入，這得益於利率和財富管理投資。

Risk management income related to our internal hedging position is forecasted to increase relative to 2022, but will vary over time as rates move. FHLB dividends created a new tailwind in this quarter. Since we do not expect to repeat the elevated derivative volumes from 2022, we expect the year-over-year derivative delta to offset positive momentum in other capital markets categories.

與我們的內部對沖頭寸相關的風險管理收入預計將相對於 2022 年增加，但會隨著利率的變化而變化。 FHLB 股息在本季度創造了新的順風。由於我們預計衍生品交易量不會從 2022 年起重演，我們預計衍生品同比增量將抵消其他資本市場類別的積極勢頭。

A reduction in our deposit service charges is expected due to an increase in commercial account ECA rates and adjustments to our retail and SF fees, more than offsetting growth in core treasury management income. With robust overall noninterest income performance in the first quarter exceeding seasonally high fourth quarter results, we feel very good about our momentum.

由於商業賬戶 ECA 利率的提高以及我們的零售和 SF 費用的調整，我們的存款服務費預計會減少，這足以抵消核心資金管理收入的增長。由於第一季度整體非利息收入表現強勁，超過了第四季度的季節性高位，我們對我們的發展勢頭感到非常滿意。

Despite elevated expense pressures in the first quarter, we maintained our 7% guidance for 2023 expense growth, considering expected adjustments to select discretionary expenses. Even after including the expenses related to the Ameriprise transition, we still expect modernization to be lower in 2023 compared to 2022. We acknowledge the dynamic nature of the current environment and plan to assess the longer-term implications of the market disruption. With a culture of prudent management, we expect to manage expenses as appropriate based on the new environment.

儘管第一季度支出壓力加大，但考慮到對部分可自由支配支出的預期調整，我們維持 2023 年支出增長 7% 的指引。即使包括與 Ameriprise 過渡相關的費用，我們仍然預計 2023 年的現代化程度將低於 2022 年。我們承認當前環境的動態性質，併計劃評估市場中斷的長期影響。憑藉審慎管理的文化，我們期望根據新環境適當地管理費用。

In summary, we expect strong overall financial performance and forecast record net interest income for 2023. Now I'll turn the call back to Curt.

總而言之，我們預計 2023 年整體財務表現強勁，並預測創紀錄的淨利息收入。現在我將把電話轉回 Curt。

Thank you, Jim. Slide 18 highlights our compelling story. Risk management decisions made over the last several years prepared us to emerge from the recent disruption in a strong position. We were resilient. We built liquidity. We protected relationships, and we grew our customer base. It was a great quarter for our company. Broad-based loan growth and robust noninterest income exceeded expectations, and credit quality remained excellent. We produced an ROE of over 24% and an ROA of 1.52%, and we feel very good about our outlook.

謝謝你，吉姆。幻燈片 18 突出了我們引人入勝的故事。過去幾年做出的風險管理決策使我們能夠從最近的混亂中脫穎而出，處於強勢地位。我們很有彈性。我們建立了流動性。我們保護關係，擴大客戶群。這對我們公司來說是一個很棒的季度。基礎廣泛的貸款增長和強勁的非利息收入超出預期，信貸質量依然出色。我們產生了超過 24% 的 ROE 和 1.52% 的 ROA，我們對我們的前景感到非常滿意。

Comerica has long had one of the most enviable deposit franchises. And now it's even better with lower uninsured deposits, improved granularity and less price sensitivity. In addition, we have a loyal blue-chip customer base, robust fee income, balanced interest rate exposure, strong capital and an impeccable reputation for credit. We are diversified in great markets to support our strategy. And I'd be remiss if I didn't mention our tenured and tenacious colleagues who partnered extraordinarily well with our customers.

Comerica 長期以來一直擁有最令人羨慕的存款特許經營權之一。現在，隨著未保險存款的減少、粒度的改進和價格敏感性的降低，情況變得更好了。此外，我們擁有忠實的藍籌客戶群、穩健的手續費收入、均衡的利率敞口、雄厚的資本和無可挑剔的信用聲譽。我們在偉大的市場中實現多元化，以支持我們的戰略。如果我不提我們那些與客戶合作得非常好的終身和頑強的同事，那我就是失職了。

Banking is based on trust, trust we have in our customers and trust our customers have in us. I feel this period has proven the strength of our relationship model and reaffirmed Comerica's stable foundation as a trusted banking partner into the future. Thank you for your time, and now we'd be happy to take your questions.

銀行業務基於信任，我們對客戶的信任以及客戶對我們的信任。我覺得這段時間證明了我們關係模型的優勢，並重申了 Comerica 作為未來值得信賴的銀行合作夥伴的穩定基礎。感謝您抽出寶貴時間，現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And we will first go to the line of Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們將首先與摩根大通聯繫 Steven Alexopoulos。

So no surprise I want to start on the deposit side. First, the color you provided on the slides is really helpful. I'm curious, when we look at the decline in the deposits from March 9 through the end of the quarter, I'm surprised that TLS specifically wasn't a beneficiary of the SBB situation. And even when I look at the decline in corporate mid-market, I'm again surprised because I would have thought the company would have been somewhat of (inaudible) to start, right? I mean, you've been in markets for decades. You've been with customers for decades. Could you take us behind the scenes? What did you hear from your customers during this time in each of those? And why were they moving balances away from the company?

所以毫不奇怪，我想從存款方面開始。首先，您在幻燈片上提供的顏色非常有用。我很好奇，當我們查看從 3 月 9 日到本季度末的存款下降時，我很驚訝 TLS 特別不是 SBB 情況的受益者。甚至當我看到企業中端市場的下滑時，我再次感到驚訝，因為我本以為公司會有點（聽不清）開始，對吧？我的意思是，你已經在市場上工作了幾十年。您已經與客戶打交道數十年了。你能把我們帶到幕後嗎？在這段時間裡，您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？他們為什麼要從公司轉移餘額？

Steve, this is Peter. So I would tell you that in the very beginning, for sure, we actually took on a lot of accounts. And Curt mentioned in his remarks that we opened a number of accounts from customers that were wanting to come to Comerica from the other banks that had failed. So during that time, we definitely took on new customers. I think the average balance probably is just not as high. But on the whole, we saw some departures. Some of that is because we've got a lot of late stage also which a lot of late-stage TLS customers are going to have more deposits, but not as much credit. And so that's where you did see some diversification wanting to occur at that level.

史蒂夫，這是彼得。所以我會告訴你，在一開始，我們確實承擔了很多客戶。 Curt 在他的評論中提到，我們從其他倒閉的銀行希望來到 Comerica 的客戶開設了許多賬戶。所以在那段時間裡，我們確實吸引了新客戶。我認為平均餘額可能沒有那麼高。但總的來說，我們看到了一些偏離。其中一些是因為我們有很多後期階段，很多後期 TLS 客戶將擁有更多存款，但沒有那麼多信用。因此，這就是您確實希望在該級別發生一些多樣化的地方。

But net-net, if you look at our TLS slide in the back, we have seen deposits coming down in that space going back to second quarter of last year, really. So what's occurred, I think, in the space, in general, has been burning through cash. So we saw that. But we didn't necessarily think that we would be taking on excess deposits fleeing from (inaudible) and coming to us out of this deal. We did take on more accounts. And we definitely saw that. We also saw during the period, as I mentioned already, late-stage fleeing, but we saw some accounts sort of spreading across not just us but other banks as well out of TLS, so...

但是淨網，如果你看一下我們後面的 TLS 幻燈片，我們已經看到該領域的存款可以追溯到去年第二季度，真的。所以我認為，總的來說，這個領域發生的事情一直在燒錢。所以我們看到了。但我們不一定認為我們會接受從（聽不清）逃離並從這筆交易中流向我們的超額存款。我們確實接受了更多的客戶。我們肯定看到了。在此期間，正如我已經提到的，我們還看到了後期逃離，但我們看到一些賬戶不僅在我們這里而且在其他銀行以及 TLS 之外蔓延，所以......

What about corporate and mid-market?

企業和中端市場呢？

Yes. Same thing there, Steve. I think on the corporate side, on our corporate business, that's our sort of national business of banking, large corporates. We saw diversification there as well. And then in Middle Market, it was mostly in California. So again, we haven't lost in just about all of the (inaudible). We have not lost customers. We have just seen diversification of excess balances that they had.

是的。同樣的事情，史蒂夫。我認為在企業方面，在我們的企業業務方面，這是我們的銀行業、大型企業的全國性業務。我們在那裡也看到了多元化。然後在中間市場，主要是在加利福尼亞。再一次，我們並沒有輸掉幾乎所有的（聽不清）。我們沒有失去客戶。我們剛剛看到他們擁有的超額餘額的多樣化。

So we believe that there's opportunities for those to return in the future. We're not relying on that. But we still have relationships with these customers. We mostly have just seen diversification. So that's really what we've seen in those 3 businesses that we've got outlined on the slide.

因此，我們相信這些人將來有機會返回。我們不依賴於此。但我們仍然與這些客戶保持著關係。我們大多剛剛看到多元化。這就是我們在幻燈片上概述的這 3 家企業中真正看到的情況。

Okay. That's helpful. And then on the noninterest bearing, so you saw a pretty sharp drop in the quarter, which was anticipated somewhat, right, because of seasonal factors. But given everything that just unfolded, where do you see that mix now bottoming? Where is the timeframe for that?

好的。這很有幫助。然後是無息負債，所以你看到本季度出現了相當大的下降，這在某種程度上是預料之中的，正確的，因為季節性因素。但考慮到剛剛展開的一切，你認為這種組合現在在哪裡觸底？時間框架在哪裡？

Steve, it's Jim. I'll take that question. We still think that we are likely to end up very close to 50%. We did see most of the drop occur in the DDA space over the course of the quarter. That was not a surprise to us at all. As rates continue to go up with new customers, we continue to be more rate sensitive. We knew that a lot of research balances that we have are still more in DDA than interest-bearing.

史蒂夫，是吉姆。我會回答這個問題。我們仍然認為我們很可能最終會非常接近 50%。我們確實看到大部分下降發生在本季度的 DDA 領域。這對我們來說一點也不奇怪。隨著新客戶的利率繼續上漲，我們繼續對利率更加敏感。我們知道，我們擁有的許多研究餘額仍然更多地存在於 DDA 中，而不是生息。

We knew a lot of the seasonal outflows relative to what came in, in the second half of '22 were likely buried in the DDA. In fact, that's where they were. And then we did have some customers that switched over using some FDIC products that have been in DDA, but for safety reasons, they were attracted to the FDIC products, which pay a nice rate of interest. So all those things moved us closer to the 50% number. We still think we're going to end up right around there. We moved a lot closer to it during the course of the quarter. And so we still expect to have really one of the strongest ratios of noninterest-bearing deposits to total deposits amongst all our peers, if not well above our closest peers. So we still feel really good about noninterest-bearing.

我們知道很多季節性流出相對於流入的流出，在 22 年下半年很可能被埋沒在 DDA 中。事實上，這就是他們所在的地方。然後我們確實有一些客戶轉而使用 DDA 中的一些 FDIC 產品，但出於安全原因，他們被 FDIC 產品所吸引，這些產品的利率很高。所以所有這些事情讓我們更接近 50% 的數字。我們仍然認為我們會在那裡結束。在本季度的過程中，我們離它更近了一步。因此，即使不遠高於我們最接近的同行，我們仍然希望在所有同行中擁有真正最強的無息存款與總存款比率之一。所以我們仍然對不計息感到非常滿意。

Okay. Great. Jim, if I could ask you one last question, which is somewhat theoretical. But so interest-bearing deposit costs are 1.5%. If we -- if the Fed does start cutting rates in the second half of this year, but the rates you're paying are still well below market rates, how do you model this impacting your deposit cost, right? I mean do market rates need to move below or close to what you're paying before you could start lowering deposit rates yourself? Because I don't recall other periods where the banks were this far out of the money with what they're paying and the Fed could potentially sort of lowering market rates. What do your models show you in terms of how this would flow through to your interest-bearing deposit cost?

好的。偉大的。吉姆，請允許我問你最後一個問題，這個問題有點理論性。但因此計息存款成本為 1.5%。如果我們 - 如果美聯儲確實在今年下半年開始降息，但你支付的利率仍遠低於市場利率，你如何模擬這會影響你的存款成本，對嗎？我的意思是，在您開始自己降低存款利率之前，市場利率是否需要低於或接近您支付的利率？因為我不記得在其他時期，銀行用他們支付的錢遠遠沒有錢，美聯儲可能會降低市場利率。就這將如何影響您的計息存款成本而言，您的模型向您展示了什麼？

Yes. Well, of course, we do expect rates to continue to go up. But relative to what might happen when rates go down, it's important to remember that we have a pretty wide distribution of rates paid to a variety of customers. So I don't really view that average is a typical customer.

是的。好吧，當然，我們確實預計利率會繼續上漲。但相對於利率下降時可能發生的情況，重要的是要記住，我們向各種客戶支付的利率分佈相當廣泛。所以我真的不認為普通客戶是典型的客戶。

We have a lot that are well below that range, a lot that are well above that range. So each one of those is going to respond differently. But we do think that there is some degree of (inaudible) in the betas that we pay on the way up and the way down. The key is that there likely is a couple of months' lag, 2 to 3 months lag when rates start to come down before we can really respond to that drop. There's just the same lag that we saw on the way up. But ultimately, we do think we'll be able to start cutting pay rates if in fact the Fed makes some material moves.

我們有很多遠低於該範圍，很多遠高於該範圍。所以每個人都會有不同的反應。但我們確實認為，我們在上升和下降的過程中支付的貝塔有一定程度的（聽不清）。關鍵是利率開始下降時可能會有幾個月的滯後，2 到 3 個月的滯後，然後我們才能真正應對這種下降。我們在上升的過程中看到了同樣的滯後。但最終，我們確實認為，如果美聯儲真的採取一些實質性舉措，我們將能夠開始削減工資率。

Yes, we would always be sensitive to, obviously, the competitive landscape and what other institutions are doing as well and making sure that we're taking care of our customers appropriately.

是的，顯然，我們將始終對競爭格局以及其他機構正在做的事情保持敏感，並確保我們適當地照顧我們的客戶。

Next, we go to Ebrahim Poonawala.

接下來，我們前往 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess just on deposits. So you mentioned the excess deposit diversification played a role in the quarter. One, give us a sense of like how much of your deposit base or NIB within noninterest-bearing that you would consider operational versus excess? And do you see some of that still continuing as businesses? And would love some perspective around just from a customer base standpoint, in terms of small businesses, treasurer, CFOs actively thinking about diversifying. Like is that trend done? Or do we -- do you still expect that to continue? Maybe if you can start there, yes.

我想只是存款。所以你提到過度存款多元化在本季度發揮了作用。第一，讓我們了解您的無息存款基礎或 NIB 中有多少是您認為可操作的還是超額的？你是否看到其中一些仍在繼續經營？並且會喜歡從客戶群的角度來看周圍的一些觀點，在小企業、財務主管、首席財務官方面積極考慮多元化。就像那個趨勢完成了嗎？或者我們 - 你仍然希望這種情況繼續下去嗎？也許如果你可以從那裡開始，是的。

Yes, I'll take that, and Peter may want to add on. In terms of what percentage were noninterest-bearing or operational, we view them as largely operational. In fact, 95% of our noninterest-bearing are tied to treasury management products.

是的，我接受，Peter 可能還想補充。就無息或可操作的百分比而言，我們認為它們主要是可操作的。事實上，我們 95% 的無息產品都與資金管理產品有關。

So from that standpoint, it is a largely operational base. Now there are fluctuations in terms of how much they need to put in those noninterest-bearing accounts to take care of operational needs and what they can leverage from an ECA standpoint. And there probably is still just a little bit of excess in there, which is why we see the ratio coming down from 52% to 53% down to around 50%.

因此，從這個角度來看，它在很大程度上是一個運營基地。現在，他們需要在這些無息賬戶中投入多少來滿足運營需求，以及從 ECA 的角度來看，他們可以利用什麼，這些方面存在波動。那裡可能還有一點點過剩，這就是為什麼我們看到該比例從 52% 到 53% 下降到 50% 左右。

But we think largely that attrition is gone. In terms of where the diversification efforts might go, things seem pretty settled down right now, and I think that's going to depend largely on just what happens to the industry in terms of other events that might happen. But for now, it does feel like the diversification efforts have largely settled down, and those are the trends that we've seen over the last 2 to 3 weeks, 3 to 4-week even.

但我們認為在很大程度上，人員流失已經消失。就多元化努力的方向而言，目前情況似乎已經確定，我認為這在很大程度上取決於該行業在可能發生的其他事件方面發生的情況。但就目前而言，確實感覺多元化努力已經基本穩定下來，這些是我們在過去 2 到 3 週，甚至 3 到 4 週內看到的趨勢。

I would agree with that, Ebrahim. This is Peter. And I would just also continue to point to where we saw most of the diversification occur. And you mentioned Small Business.

易卜拉欣，我同意這一點。這是彼得。我還要繼續指出我們看到大部分多元化發生的地方。你提到了小型企業。

In our retail franchise, Small Business, Business Banking, Middle Market, most of those businesses really had not seen the diversification issue. It's been sort of business as usual, if you will. People using deposits for running their businesses or -- and what -- and so forth. But the strength of the rest of our deposit base is something that we are really, really proud of and are going to continue to lean into. And so I think Jim is exactly right. We feel like the diversification efforts, if you will, at this point, have pretty much stabilized.

在我們的零售特許經營權、小型企業、商業銀行、中間市場中，大多數這些企業確實沒有看到多元化問題。如果你願意的話，這有點像往常一樣。人們使用存款來經營他們的企業或 - 等等 - 等等。但我們其他存款基礎的實力是我們真正引以為豪的，並將繼續努力。所以我認為吉姆是完全正確的。我們覺得多元化的努力，如果你願意的話，在這一點上，已經相當穩定了。

Noted. And I guess maybe just another question, Jim, around the outlook for NII, NIM. I was wondering if you could give a sense of the trajectory that saw 67% year-over-year growth. How do you see quarterly NII and NIM trending from your -- from 1Q levels?

著名的。 Jim，我想也許只是另一個問題，關於 NII，NIM 的前景。我想知道您是否可以了解同比增長 67% 的軌跡。從第一季度的水平來看，您如何看待季度 NII 和 NIM 的趨勢？

Ebrahim, I'm going to probably refrain from giving, as I often do, from specific NIM percentage guidance. I think this example is a great -- this quarter is a great example of why we don't like to give that. With our business model being a commercial bank, we do see some variations in a number of line items, cash securities, et cetera. And in this particular quarter, we did put a lot of safety net level of cash onto the balance sheet, which does put a drag on NIM percentage and it just creates a kind of a noncorrelation between the numerator and denominator. We just don't see them going in the same direction or correlating very well.

易卜拉欣，我可能會像往常一樣避免給出具體的 NIM 百分比指導。我認為這個例子很好——這個季度是一個很好的例子，說明了為什麼我們不想給出這個例子。由於我們的商業模式是商業銀行，我們確實看到了一些項目、現金證券等方面的一些變化。在這個特定的季度，我們確實在資產負債表上投入了大量的現金安全網水平，這確實拖累了 NIM 百分比，它只是在分子和分母之間造成了一種不相關。我們只是看不到他們朝著同一個方向前進或關聯得很好。

So the NIM percentage, I'm shying away from still. We're obviously probably moving towards the low 3s, but I wouldn't want to get more specific than that. And I would just stick to the percentage guidance that we gave for the quarter and the full year.

所以 NIM 百分比，我正在迴避。很明顯，我們可能正在朝著低 3 的方向發展，但我不想說得更具體。我只會堅持我們為本季度和全年提供的百分比指導。

But Jim, if rates don't get cut, do you expect fourth quarter NII to be the low point for the year in terms of as we think about the exit?

但是吉姆，如果利率沒有降低，你是否預計第四季度 NII 將成為我們考慮退出的年度低點？

Obviously, we are doing a little bit of a reset with the deposit runoff. And so we have the second quarter guidance out there. We actually have net interest income probably growing slightly quarter-to-quarter after that. That's a function of loan growth primarily. And we do expect to get some degree of seasonal deposits probably later in the second half of the year, and that's beyond the day impact that you might get. So we do think that we're going to be in a positive trajectory from the second quarter on. We're just essentially resetting that baseline in the second quarter.

顯然，我們正在對存款徑流進行一些重置。所以我們有第二季度的指導。實際上，在那之後，我們的淨利息收入可能會按季度略有增長。這主要是貸款增長的一個函數。我們確實希望在今年下半年晚些時候獲得一定程度的季節性存款，這超出了您可能會受到的影響。所以我們確實認為我們將從第二季度開始處於積極的軌道。我們基本上只是在第二季度重置該基線。

Next, we have a question from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們有一個來自 Manan Gosalia 與摩根士丹利的問題。

Another question on deposits for you. You noted you've retained a lot of the relationships and only lost some of the, I guess, excess balances that people were holding. So in terms of the room to bring those deposits back, what is the strategy here? Is it just to pay up on rate or through ECR to bring those deposits back? Or is there anything else you can do? And is there a level of deposits you think would flow back once this volatility subside?

另一個關於存款的問題。你注意到你保留了很多關係，只是失去了一些，我猜，人們持有的多餘餘額。那麼就收回這些存款的空間而言，這裡的策略是什麼？只是支付利率還是通過 ECR 取回這些存款？或者你還有什麼可以做的嗎？一旦這種波動性消退，您認為有一定程度的存款會回流嗎？

Manan, this is Peter. The last part of your question, I'll say is, yes, we believe there is a level of deposits that would flow back. I would say the #1 thing that we do is we talk to our customers pretty regularly.

馬南，這是彼得。你問題的最後一部分，我要說的是，是的，我們相信有一定程度的存款會回流。我想說的是，我們所做的第一件事就是定期與客戶交談。

We continue to believe that we provide a better customer relationship, better service than other banks. And quite often, it's not unusual for people to come back to us because they don't get the service that they wanted at another institution. So I think when we get to the other side of this, that will probably be the #1 reason we start to see deposits flow back.

我們仍然相信我們提供比其他銀行更好的客戶關係和更好的服務。很多時候，人們回到我們這裡並不少見，因為他們在另一家機構沒有得到他們想要的服務。所以我認為，當我們走到另一邊時，這可能是我們開始看到存款回流的首要原因。

But I also want to iterate again, as Jim said, that's not necessarily something we're relying on in our outlook. We think that we will see it. But we believe that, that will just be a function of us providing great customer service. I don't think we're going to have to pay up for it necessarily or things like that.

但我也想再次重申，正如吉姆所說，這不一定是我們在展望中所依賴的東西。我們認為我們會看到它。但我們相信，這只是我們提供優質客戶服務的一個功能。我認為我們不必為此付出一定的代價或類似的事情。

Yes, I might just emphasize, too, Peter, I don't believe that across all of our portfolios, this is probably less about rate and more about sort of 2 things. One is the sort of surge excess deposits flowing out that we saw during COVID, stimulus, PPP, et cetera. And we were expecting that in the quarter that we would lose some of that. And then those that have sought diversification, I think as the noise level settles down across the industry and things get back to normal, I think we've got a good opportunity at some of those deposits coming back on balance sheet. And we're just staying very, very close to all those customers. They have access to our relationship managers, but also to any of us on the leadership team as well.

是的，我也可能只是強調，彼得，我不相信在我們所有的投資組合中，這可能與利率無關，而與兩件事有關。一種是我們在 COVID、刺激、購買力平價等期間看到的那種激增的超額存款流出。我們預計在本季度我們會失去一些。然後那些尋求多元化的人，我認為隨著整個行業的噪音水平下降並且事情恢復正常，我認為我們有一個很好的機會讓其中一些存款重新回到資產負債表上。我們只是非常非常接近所有這些客戶。他們可以聯繫我們的客戶經理，也可以聯繫我們領導團隊中的任何人。

Got it. And then maybe to round out the discussion on the balance sheet. You added a lot more short-term and long-term debt this quarter to boost your liquidity. How should we think about the right level of liability mix outside of deposits and the right level of cash that you want to hold on the balance sheet going forward?

知道了。然後也許可以完成資產負債表上的討論。本季度您增加了更多的短期和長期債務以增加流動性。我們應該如何考慮存款之外的正確負債組合水平以及您希望在資產負債表上持有的現金的正確水平？

Yes. Those questions are connected to each other. Certainly, the level of cash that we hold will really be strongly correlated to what's going on in the industry. We always want to make sure we have an abundant level of cash during turbulent times. So we have been comfortable with our targeted $3 billion level of cash prior to the disruption in the industry. Obviously, we pushed closer to $9 billion, as we have on the slide, on Slide 9. And we will hold there for some period of time until we're sure the industry has passed some of this turbulence. To the extent we have loan growth, of course, we'll see that start to go down.

是的。這些問題是相互關聯的。當然，我們持有的現金水平確實與行業中發生的事情密切相關。我們始終希望確保在動盪時期擁有充足的現金。因此，在行業中斷之前，我們對目標 30 億美元的現金水平感到滿意。顯然，正如我們在幻燈片 9 上所做的那樣，我們將目標推近了 90 億美元。我們將在那裡停留一段時間，直到我們確定該行業已經度過了一些動盪。當然，就我們的貸款增長而言，我們會看到它開始下降。

On the funding side of the balance sheet, we started with very low levels of unsecured debt. As you can see on Slide 9, probably some of the lowest amongst our peers. So we felt like we were in very good shape to begin with. We have a lot of flexibility. We did draw on a lot of FHLB during the initial days of the crisis, which we thought was a very prudent thing to do. The good thing is we did that in a way that gives us tremendous flexibility. A lot of those maturities are latter, starting this year all the way through the next couple of years. And so we have the option as those maturities come up to either roll them over or let them just mature naturally.

在資產負債表的融資方面，我們從非常低水平的無擔保債務開始。正如您在幻燈片 9 中看到的那樣，這可能是我們同行中最低的。所以我們覺得我們一開始就處於非常好的狀態。我們有很大的靈活性。在危機的最初幾天，我們確實利用了很多 FHLB，我們認為這是一件非常謹慎的事情。好消息是我們以一種給我們極大靈活性的方式做到了這一點。很多這些到期日都是較晚的，從今年開始一直持續到接下來的幾年。因此，隨著這些到期日的到來，我們可以選擇將它們滾動或讓它們自然成熟。

So we feel like we have a tremendous amount of flexibility, but it's going to depend on the environment that will drive the amount of cash we have and the amount of funding that we have on the balance sheet. But we are starting from very low levels, and we feel really good about our current position. So we're fortunate that we have that capability.

所以我們覺得我們有很大的靈活性，但這將取決於推動我們擁有的現金數量和資產負債表上的資金數量的環境。但我們的起步水平很低，我們對目前的狀況感覺非常好。所以我們很幸運我們有這種能力。

And is that largely revenue neutral because you're raising essentially closer to the Fed funds rate and then you're deploying that in cash?

這在很大程度上是收入中性的，因為你基本上提高了接近聯邦基金利率的水平，然後你用現金部署了它？

There is a modest strain on that. There's probably 40 to 50 bp drag as I look at it. And that's one of the reasons we shied away from NIM percentage guidance. I mean not only just cash, simply capability to inflate or deflate the balance sheet. But whether that's free cash coming in, in the form of deposits or its cash carrying a negative spread, that can make an impact on the NIM percentage, too.

對此有適度的壓力。在我看來，可能有 40 到 50 個基點的阻力。這就是我們迴避 NIM 百分比指導的原因之一。我的意思不僅是現金，還有擴大或縮小資產負債表的能力。但是，無論是以存款形式流入的自由現金，還是帶有負利差的現金，都會對 NIM 百分比產生影響。

So baked into the outlook, we do have a fair amount of cash still there. And that's one of the things that I look at as an opportunity as we move towards later in the year and into '24, we'll get past that modest amount of trade from the negative spread on the cash carry.

因此，考慮到前景，我們確實還有相當數量的現金。當我們在今年晚些時候進入 24 世紀時，我認為這是一個機會，我們將從現金攜帶的負利差中擺脫適度的交易量。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Next, we go to the line of Brody Preston with UBS.

接下來，我們去看看布羅迪普雷斯頓與瑞銀的線。

Could I just circle back on the NII guide. I just need -- I was just hoping to get some help tying the 2Q, what the step down that you have for 2Q versus the full year guide. Just because if I try to run through the numbers quickly, it kind of looks like at the midpoint of the 2Q guide relative to the full year guide, you kind of expect like a 3% step-up in the back half of the year on the quarterly NII run rate. And so can you help me understand sort of how we get there and how much of that assumption is driven by what you do with borrowings?

我可以繞回 NII 指南嗎？我只需要——我只是希望得到一些幫助來確定第二季度，第二季度與全年指南相比有何下降。只是因為如果我試著快速瀏覽一下這些數字，它看起來有點像第二季度指南相對於全年指南的中點，你有點期待今年下半年增長 3%季度 NII 運行率。那麼你能幫我理解我們是如何到達那裡的嗎，以及這種假設有多少是由你對借款的處理方式驅動的？

Yes, there's a little bit of play in there as you take the midpoints of those percentages. So I wouldn't put the stuff up in the second half of the year quite at that level. There's just a little bit of rounding trying to navigate those mid percentages that you mentioned.

是的，當你取這些百分比的中點時，那裡有一些遊戲。所以我不會在今年下半年把這些東西放在那個水平上。只有一點點四捨五入試圖找到你提到的那些中間百分比。

We do see a small step-up in the second half of the year. Some of that is days. Some of that is loan growth, a little bit of seasonal deposits we expect to come in. So you will see a very small step-up quarter-to-quarter as we go through the year, probably not quite at a level that you just mentioned, Brody.

我們確實看到今年下半年有小幅上升。其中一些是幾天。其中一些是貸款增長，我們預計會有一些季節性存款。因此，隨著我們度過這一年，你會看到一個非常小的季度環比增長，可能不會達到你剛剛看到的水平提到，布羅迪。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess if I could just ask one more on the deposit front. And I'm sorry if somebody else asked this and I missed it. As you think about go forward on deposits and customer concentrations, and I'm thinking particularly as it relates to the TLS deposits, what are the kind of governors that need to be put in place going forward to kind of help navigate any future liquidity events? I'm not really talking near term because I don't think -- a lot of us think that's going to come to pass, but you never know what's going to happen going forward. And so how should we think about the balance sheet flexibility in a stressed environment going forward?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後我想我是否可以在存款方面再問一個。如果有人問這個而我錯過了，我很抱歉。當你考慮推進存款和客戶集中度時，我特別考慮與 TLS 存款相關的問題，需要設立什麼樣的監管機構來幫助應對未來的任何流動性事件？我並不是真的在談論近期，因為我不認為——我們很多人認為這會發生，但你永遠不知道未來會發生什麼。那麼，在未來壓力大的環境下，我們應該如何考慮資產負債表的靈活性呢？

Yes. Brody, what I would say is that we've been in a bank for 174 years, and we've managed through lots of different cycles. And one thing that we've always kept central in our approach is our relationship focus.

是的。布羅迪，我想說的是，我們在銀行工作了 174 年，我們經歷了許多不同的周期。我們始終在我們的方法中保持核心的一件事是我們的關係重點。

Many of these deposit relationships we've had for decades. And while we did see some deposit decline during this period of time, we did not see it as much in our core businesses, Retail Banking, Small Business, Business Banking, Middle Market, Wealth Management, et cetera. And so we're going to continue to focus on those business lines. We will obviously have an opportunity, I think, to bring back some of the deposits that we lost along the way.

許多這樣的存款關係我們已經有幾十年了。雖然我們在這段時間內確實看到了一些存款下降，但在我們的核心業務、零售銀行、小型企業、商業銀行、中間市場、財富管理等領域，我們並沒有看到那麼多。因此，我們將繼續專注於這些業務領域。我認為，我們顯然有機會取回我們在此過程中丟失的一些存款。

But our focus on treasury management services, our focus is on small business and retail deposits. Those types of things will continue to be sort of key drivers for us. We can't fully control when there's an industry issue that unfolded like it did previously. But what we did control was we had a great liquidity playbook in hand. We were able to execute against that. And again, I think kind of on the back side of this, we do believe -- it's not in our modeling, but we do believe we have a chance to get some of these deposits back.

但我們專注於資金管理服務，我們的重點是小企業和零售存款。這些類型的事情將繼續成為我們的關鍵驅動力。當出現像以前那樣展開的行業問題時，我們無法完全控制。但我們確實控制的是我們手頭有一本很好的流動性手冊。我們能夠對此執行。再一次，我認為在這背後，我們確實相信——這不在我們的模型中，但我們確實相信我們有機會收回其中的一些存款。

Got it. And then just one more, just on the betas. And again, I'm sorry if somebody else asked this. But have you changed your thinking about your through-cycle beta at all? And have you changed how you think about like what your terminal beta would be just given the deposit volatility? And I guess I'm more trying to narrow down to the interest-bearing deposit beta, if you have any color around that?

知道了。然後還有一個，就在測試版上。再一次，如果有人問這個問題，我很抱歉。但是您是否完全改變了對整個週期 beta 的看法？你是否改變了你對存款波動性的最終貝塔值的看法？我想我更想縮小到有息存款貝塔，如果你對此有任何看法？

Yes, Brody. We do see the betas going up above previous guidance. I think we had been more in the mid-40s last time we gave an outlook. We now see that likely hitting the 50% point sometime this summer and then kind of hanging out there, and then things get a little (inaudible) as rates start to go down with the lag that I mentioned earlier. But we will likely get up to around 50% some time in the early to mid-summer on an accumulated basis.

是的，布羅迪。我們確實看到貝塔值高於之前的指導。我認為我們上次給出展望時更多是在 40 年代中期。我們現在看到它可能會在今年夏天的某個時候達到 50% 的點，然後在那裡閒逛，然後隨著利率開始下降，我之前提到的滯後，事情變得有點（聽不清）。但我們可能會在初夏到仲夏的某個時候累計達到 50% 左右。

Got it. And that's interest-bearing, right?

知道了。那是有利息的，對吧？

That is pure interest bearing. All-in, pure interest bearing.

那是純粹的利息。全押，純利息承擔。

Got it. And I think you did say earlier that you do feel like on the way down, it might happen with a lag, but you do feel like you'd be able to pass through the same amount of beta to the downside that you passed through on the upside?

知道了。而且我想你之前確實說過你確實感覺在下降，這可能會發生滯後，但你確實覺得你能夠通過相同數量的 beta 到你通過的下行好的一面？

That's right.

這是正確的。

And next, we go to a question from Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson.

接下來，我們將與 D.A. 討論彼得·溫特 (Peter Winter) 提出的問題。戴維森。

I'll switch gears on you and ask about credit. Could you give a little bit more color about the increase in criticized loans? I know you mentioned it's interest-bearing with the higher rates that's impacted. But if you could give a little bit more color on that? And then secondly, on net charge-offs, is there much left in terms of recoveries? .

我會換檔向你詢問信用。你能否更詳細地說明受批評貸款的增加？我知道你提到過受影響的利率較高是有息的。但是，如果你能給它多一點顏色？其次，在淨註銷方面，回收方面還有很多嗎？ .

Yes. Peter, this is Melinda. So I'll take the first one, the increase that we saw this quarter in criticized. I think Jim mentioned it or talked in his comments that it really was expected. I mean the reality is we've been bumping along the bottom here now for 4 or 5 quarters in exceptionally kind of non-sustainable levels. So over the last couple of calls, I said we would expect to see some normalization just given all the inflationary pressures that customers have been dealing with. Certainly, the increase in interest rates. So those interest rate sensitive portfolios, certainly, our leverage portfolio kind of core middle market technology and life sciences. And we did see credit migration this quarter in our Commercial Real Estate book, a couple of hundred million. That is all special mention credit.

是的。彼得，這是梅琳達。所以我會採取第一個，我們在本季度看到的增長受到批評。我認為吉姆提到過它或在他的評論中談到它確實是意料之中的。我的意思是，現實情況是，我們已經在 4 或 5 個季度中以異常不可持續的水平觸底。因此，在過去的幾個電話中，我說過，考慮到客戶一直在應對的所有通脹壓力，我們預計會看到一些正常化。當然，利率上升。因此，那些對利率敏感的投資組合，當然，我們的槓桿投資組合是核心中間市場技術和生命科學。我們確實在本季度的商業房地產賬簿中看到了信貸遷移，數億美元。這是所有特別提及的功勞。

I don't see that migrating really to any kind of loss content. And that's really on some projects that have pressure related to the rising interest rate environment and from a multifamily perspective, a little bit of softness in a couple of submarkets in terms of leasing rates and leasing pace. So that softness, coupled with the increased interest burden, caused a couple of those projects to move into that criticized category.

我沒有看到真正遷移到任何類型的損失內容。這確實是在一些與利率上升環境相關的壓力項目上，從多戶家庭的角度來看，幾個子市場在租賃率和租賃速度方面略有疲軟。因此，這種疲軟加上利息負擔的增加，導致其中一些項目進入了那個受到批評的類別。

But again, I do not see loss content in that Commercial Real Estate book. We did increase our Commercial Real Estate reserves this quarter just as a precautionary measure. But again, that Commercial Real Estate book is predominantly multifamily and industrial. Close to half of it is on the construction side. Loan to cost in that book is generally in the 50% to 60% range. So there's a tremendous amount of equity and room in those projects to hold a little bit longer should we need to.

但同樣，我沒有在那本商業房地產書中看到損失內容。作為預防措施，本季度我們確實增加了商業房地產儲備。但同樣，那本商業房地產書主要是多戶型和工業型的。其中近一半用於建築方面。那本書中的貸款成本一般在 50% 到 60% 的範圍內。因此，如果我們需要，這些項目有大量的股權和空間可以持有更長時間。

And then just on the recoveries for net charge-offs?

然後只是關於淨沖銷的回收？

Recoveries. Yes, I called it the gift that keeps on giving. And quite frankly, recoveries are almost impossible to predict. They've continued to surprise us really over the last 4 or 5 quarters. So at some point, we're going to run off of that. But I would expect that we'll still see modest levels of declining of recoveries in the coming quarters. Mostly the charge-offs have been incredibly low as well. There's not a lot to recover left.

恢復。是的，我稱之為不斷給予的禮物。坦率地說，經濟復甦幾乎是無法預測的。在過去的 4 或 5 個季度中，他們確實繼續讓我們感到驚訝。所以在某些時候，我們會用完它。但我預計未來幾個季度我們仍會看到復蘇出現適度下降。大多數情況下，費用也非常低。沒有多少東西可以恢復了。

Yes. And just one follow-up question. In the 10-K, you had mentioned possibly looking at resuming buybacks. But I'm just wondering, just given all the uncertainty in the environment, is that kind of on hold for now on buybacks?

是的。還有一個後續問題。在 10-K 中，您曾提到可能考慮恢復回購。但我只是想知道，考慮到環境中的所有不確定性，現在是否會暫停回購？

I would say buybacks are on hold until further notice. There is a lot of uncertainty in the environment, as you mentioned. Certainly, industry uncertainty. But perhaps even more importantly, regulatory uncertainty for all banks.

我會說回購暫停，直至另行通知。正如您提到的，環境中存在很多不確定性。當然，行業的不確定性。但也許更重要的是，所有銀行的監管不確定性。

We just don't know where this is going. And we want to make sure that if there is any kind of regulatory change on the capital side that we can get there organically, which I believe we likely -- very likely will be able to do. But I think caution is in order in that regard. And so share buybacks certainly in the sidelines in the foreseeable future.

我們只是不知道這是怎麼回事。我們希望確保，如果在資本方面發生任何形式的監管變化，我們可以有機地實現這一目標，我相信我們很可能——很可能能夠做到這一點。但我認為在這方面要謹慎。因此，在可預見的未來，股票回購肯定會處於場外。

And I will now turn the call back over to Curt Farmer, President, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

我現在將把電話轉回給總裁、董事長兼首席執行官 Curt Farmer。

Let me just thank you again for your interest in Comerica, and I hope you have a good day. Thank you.

再次感謝您對 Comerica 的關注，希望您今天過得愉快。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。