Comerica Inc (CMA) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Comerica Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Kelly Gage, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Comerica 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係總監 Kelly Gage。請繼續。

Thanks, Brad. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Comerica's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman and CEO, Curt Farmer; Chief Financial Officer, Jim Herzog; Chief Credit Officer, Melinda Chausse; and Executive Director of our Commercial Bank, Peter Sefzik. During this presentation, we will be referring to slides which will provide additional details. The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC's website as well as in the Investor Relations section of our website, comerica.com.

謝謝，布拉德。大家早上好，歡迎參加 Comerica 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。參加此次電話會議的將是我們的總裁、董事長兼首席執行官 Curt Farmer；首席財務官吉姆·赫爾佐格；首席信貸官，梅琳達·喬斯；我們的商業銀行執行董事 Peter Sefzik。在此演示中，我們將參考提供更多詳細信息的幻燈片。演示幻燈片和我們的新聞稿可在 SEC 網站以及我們網站comerica.com 的投資者關係部分獲取。

This conference call contains forward-looking statements. In that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially from expectations. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Also, this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures. And in that regard, I direct you to the reconciliation of these measures on our website, comerica.com.

本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。在這方面，您應該注意可能導致實際結果與預期產生重大差異的風險和不確定性。前瞻性陳述僅在本演示文稿發布之日發表，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。此外，本次電話會議將參考非公認會計原則措施。在這方面，我指導您在我們的網站comerica.com 上協調這些措施。

Please refer to the safe harbor statement in today's earnings release on Slide 2, which is incorporated into this call as well as our SEC filings for factors that can cause actual results to differ. Now I'll turn our call over to Curt, who will begin on Slide 3.

請參閱今天幻燈片 2 上的收益發布中的安全港聲明，該聲明已納入本次電話會議以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，以了解可能導致實際結果不同的因素。現在我將把我們的電話轉給 Curt，他將從幻燈片 3 開始。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call. Today, we reported third quarter 2022 results, including record earnings of $351 million or $2.60 per share, an increase of 35% over the second quarter. We generated excellent financial results with all-time high revenue of $985 million, up 19%, improved our efficiency ratio to 51%, and maintained a strong credit position, with our percentage of criticized loans well below our historical average.

大家，早安。感謝您加入我們的電話。今天，我們公佈了 2022 年第三季度的業績，包括創紀錄的 3.51 億美元或每股 2.60 美元的收益，比第二季度增長 35%。我們創造了出色的財務業績，收入達到 9.85 億美元，增長 19%，創歷史新高，效率比率提高到 51%，並保持了強勁的信用狀況，我們的批評貸款比例遠低於歷史平均水平。

We continue to benefit, not only from the rising rate environment, but also from investments in strategic management of our businesses report long-term success. We produced another quarter of broad-based loan growth and continue to generate solid fee income. While our customers are closely monitoring recessionary risk and its potential impacts, they remain generally confident in their ability to successfully navigate the changing landscape. Corporate responsibility remains a priority as we continue to demonstrate our commitment to supporting economic growth in our local communities.

我們繼續受益，不僅受益於利率上升的環境，而且還受益於對我們業務戰略管理的投資報告長期成功。我們又創造了一個季度的廣泛貸款增長，並繼續產生可觀的費用收入。雖然我們的客戶正在密切關注衰退風險及其潛在影響，但他們普遍對自己成功駕馭不斷變化的環境的能力充滿信心。隨著我們繼續展示我們對支持當地社區經濟增長的承諾，企業責任仍然是一個優先事項。

We announced a dedicated business banking team for the southern sector of Dallas County, with a mandate to provide capital solutions for underserved entrepreneurs and small businesses. We enhanced our National Community Impact manager role, responsible for leading our public purpose and community impact investments. Our green loans and commitments continue to grow and totaled $2.2 billion at quarter end. Our recently announced renewables group is already off to a strong start, with over $200 million in new commitments year-to-date and a growing pipeline.

我們宣佈為達拉斯縣南部地區設立專門的商業銀行團隊，其任務是為服務不足的企業家和小企業提供資本解決方案。我們加強了國家社區影響力經理的角色，負責領導我們的公共目的和社區影響力投資。我們的綠色貸款和承諾繼續增長，截至季度末總計 22 億美元。我們最近宣布的可再生能源集團已經有了一個良好的開端，年初至今的新承諾超過 2 億美元，並且管道不斷增長。

We are incredibly proud of our community impact and financial results, and we continue to focus our efforts on the future. Through our modernization initiatives, we are making strategic investments to adapt to the changing landscape and move into a new era of banking. We announced an expanded office footprint in Frisco, Texas; and Farmington Hills, Michigan, commitments we are excited to make in important markets. These innovation hubs delivered enhanced colleague work experience and assist us in attracting and retaining top talent.

我們為我們的社區影響和財務業績感到無比自豪，我們將繼續將精力集中在未來上。通過我們的現代化計劃，我們正在進行戰略投資以適應不斷變化的環境並進入銀行業的新時代。我們宣佈在德克薩斯州弗里斯科擴大辦事處；和密歇根州法明頓希爾斯，我們很高興在重要市場做出承諾。這些創新中心提升了同事的工作經驗，並幫助我們吸引和留住頂尖人才。

Also, we realigned our organization to create an even more synergistic structure, supporting our commercial banking expertise, while adding transformational leadership in payments. We believe this structure will better serve the comprehensive and evolving needs of our customers, allowing us to deepen relationships and enhance revenue.

此外，我們重新調整了我們的組織，以創建一個更具協同效應的結構，支持我們的商業銀行專業知識，同時在支付領域增加轉型領導力。我們相信這種結構將更好地滿足客戶全面和不斷變化的需求，使我們能夠加深關係並增加收入。

Further, in conjunction with our strategic modernization objectives, we refreshed our company's core values, driving collaboration, encouraging bold thinking and behaviors and empowering our employees, all who are remaining centrally focused on our customer is critical to achieving continued success.

此外，結合我們的戰略現代化目標，我們更新了公司的核心價值觀、推動協作、鼓勵大膽的思考和行為並賦予我們的員工權力，所有始終以客戶為中心的人對於實現持續成功至關重要。

Let's review the highlights of our third quarter results on Slide 4. Following second quarter's significant loan growth, third quarter activity remained strong. Average loans were up $1.1 billion, reflecting increases across a number of businesses, the largest being commercial real estate, National Dealer Services, Environmental Services and Wealth Management.

讓我們回顧一下幻燈片 4 中第三季度業績的亮點。繼第二季度貸款大幅增長之後，第三季度活動依然強勁。平均貸款增加了 11 億美元，反映了許多企業的增長，最大的是商業房地產、國家經銷商服務、環境服務和財富管理。

Commercial real estate benefited from the continued build-out of projects and the pace of payoffs normalizing due to the rate environment. We have made selective investments to expand our Wealth Management business, and we are excited to see the growth and momentum this quarter.

商業房地產受益於項目的持續擴建以及利率環境導致的回報步伐正常化。我們進行了選擇性投資以擴大我們的財富管理業務，我們很高興看到本季度的增長和勢頭。

Our other business lines saw a merger and acquisition activity and continued investment in working capital, albeit at a slower pace than the second quarter. We continue to strategically manage deposits as customers draw down on their operating accounts and seek higher-yielding products for excess balances.

我們的其他業務線出現了併購活動，並繼續對營運資金進行投資，儘管速度低於第二季度。隨著客戶提取其經營賬戶並為超額餘額尋求更高收益的產品，我們將繼續戰略性地管理存款。

We made significant progress on our hedging strategy, which should help insulate earnings through rate cycles. Yet we maintained most of the benefit from higher rates, which, combined with the growth in our loan and securities portfolios, drove record net interest income. Credit quality remained excellent and fee income strong with increased derivative activity.

我們在對沖策略上取得了重大進展，這應該有助於在利率週期中隔離收益。然而，我們保持了較高利率帶來的大部分收益，再加上我們的貸款和證券投資組合的增長，推動了創紀錄的淨利息收入。隨著衍生品活動的增加，信用質量保持良好，手續費收入強勁。

Expenses were driven by performance-based compensation and investments to support growth. Our efficiency ratio further improved to 51% as a result of record revenue and a solid expense management. Retention of earnings drove our CET1 ratio back up to an estimated 9.92%. Overall, an excellent quarter, and we feel very positive about the trajectory of our business as we move through the remainder of the year.

費用由基於績效的薪酬和支持增長的投資驅動。由於創紀錄的收入和穩健的費用管理，我們的效率比進一步提高至 51%。保留收益推動我們的 CET1 比率回升至估計的 9.92%。總體而言，這是一個出色的季度，我們對今年剩餘時間的業務發展軌跡感到非常樂觀。

And now I'll turn the call over to Jim, who will review the quarter in more detail.

現在我將把電話轉給吉姆，他將更詳細地審查本季度。

Thanks, Curt, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 5. As Curt mentioned, we continue to have broad-based loan growth with balances increasing $1.1 billion. Favorable environmental factors and demonstrated expertise across a number of our specialty businesses drove our outstandings higher. Also, loan commitment reduction was very strong, which can be a good indicator of future loan growth.

謝謝，Curt，大家早上好。轉到幻燈片 5。正如 Curt 所說，我們的貸款繼續廣泛增長，餘額增加了 11 億美元。有利的環境因素和在我們的許多專業業務中展示的專業知識推動了我們的傑出表現。此外，貸款承諾的減少非常強勁，這可以很好地反映未來貸款的增長。

As of quarter end, loan commitments increased almost $2.8 billion or 5%, which outpaced loan draws, resulting in a small decline in line utilization to about 45%. Loans in our commercial real estate business increased over $350 million as we funded construction of projects.

截至季度末，貸款承諾增加了近 28 億美元或 5%，超過了貸款額度，導致生產線利用率小幅下降至 45% 左右。由於我們為項目建設提供資金，我們商業房地產業務的貸款增加了超過 3.5 億美元。

Nearly all of the growth was in Class A multifamily or industrial projects built by large developers that we know well, providing significant equity contributions. Credit quality in this business is excellent, criticized loans remain extremely low, and we see no meaningful signs of negative migration. National Dealer Services loans continued a slow rebound and grew over $200 million. This includes a $140 million increase in floor plan loans to $980 million. However, inventory levels remain low, and these balances are well below our pre-COVID run rate. We have been benefiting from acquisition activity in this space.

幾乎所有的增長都來自我們熟知的大型開發商建造的 A 級多戶住宅或工業項目，提供了可觀的股權貢獻。該業務的信用質量非常好，被批評的貸款仍然極低，我們沒有看到任何有意義的負遷移跡象。全國經銷商服務貸款繼續緩慢反彈，增長超過 2 億美元。這包括將 1.4 億美元的平面圖貸款增加到 9.8 億美元。但是，庫存水平仍然很低，而且這些餘額遠低於我們在 COVID 之前的運行率。我們一直從該領域的收購活動中受益。

We still believe it will take some time for inventory levels to rebuild as supply issues are resolved and pent-up demand is satisfied. Growth in Environmental Services and Corporate Banking resulted from a combination of new customers, M&A as well as investment in working capital and CapEx. Wealth Management had a strong quarter with 3% loan growth, in part due to customers' tax-related activities such as 1031 exchanges.

我們仍然認為，隨著供應問題的解決和被壓抑的需求得到滿足，庫存水平需要一段時間才能恢復。環境服務和企業銀行業務的增長得益於新客戶、併購以及對營運資金和資本支出的投資。財富管理季度表現強勁，貸款增長 3%，部分原因是客戶的稅務相關活動，例如 1031 交易所。

Average loans in both equity fund services and Mortgage Banker Finance were down. In Equity Fund Services, following very strong growth in the past couple of quarters, we saw it moderate early in the quarter, but momentum resumed and period-end loans and total commitments were up. Mortgage Banker average loans decreased $62 million and $657 million at quarter end, significantly muting our total period-end balances. Volumes in that business remained depressed due to higher interest rates and lack of housing inventory.

股票基金服務和 Mortgage Banker Finance 的平均貸款均有所下降。在股票基金服務方面，在過去幾個季度的強勁增長之後，我們看到它在本季度初有所放緩，但勢頭恢復，期末貸款和總承諾增加。 Mortgage Banker 的平均貸款在季度末減少了 6200 萬美元和 6.57 億美元，顯著降低了我們的期末餘額總額。由於較高的利率和缺乏住房庫存，該業務的交易量仍然低迷。

Loan yields increased 100 basis points to 4.64%, primarily reflecting the benefit from higher rates. In line with expectations, Slide 6 shows our average deposits continued to decline. Customers put their excess liquidity to work, and we prudently manage pricing related to non-relationship-based deposits in highly rate-sensitive segments.

貸款收益率增加 100 個基點至 4.64%，主要反映了利率上升帶來的好處。符合預期，幻燈片 6 顯示我們的平均存款繼續下降。客戶將其過剩的流動性用於工作，我們謹慎地管理與對利率高度敏感的非關係型存款相關的定價。

We continue to see the largest decreases in our interest-bearing deposits, particularly in financial services, financial institutions and corporate banking businesses. Our strategy through this cycle has been to balance deposit pricing with our liquidity needs, while most importantly, retaining our customer relationships.

我們的有息存款繼續出現最大降幅，尤其是金融服務、金融機構和企業銀行業務。我們在這個週期中的策略是平衡存款定價與我們的流動性需求，同時最重要的是保持我們的客戶關係。

We have taken an agile and customized approach to finding that right balance. Our mix remains favorable at 57% noninterest-bearing, reflecting the relationship and operational nature of our deposits. Our overall liquidity position is strong, with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 71%, which is well below our historical average.

我們採取了敏捷和定制的方法來找到正確的平衡。我們的組合仍然有利，無息率為 57%，反映了我們存款的關係和運營性質。我們的整體流動性狀況良好，貸存比為 71%，遠低於我們的歷史平均水平。

We have significant capacity to support loan growth, including efficient borrowing channels available, such as brokered deposits or Federal Home Loan bank lines, which we began utilizing at the end of the quarter.

我們有強大的能力來支持貸款增長，包括可用的有效借貸渠道，例如我們在本季度末開始使用的經紀存款或聯邦住房貸款銀行額度。

Interest-bearing deposit costs remained low at 20 basis points. With a year-to-date beta of only 7%, we do not expect to achieve a cumulative beta of 25% until sometime next year. Of course, the ultimate cumulative beta will depend on FOMC monetary actions in addition to loan and deposit activity.

有息存款成本維持在 20 個基點的低位。由於年初至今的貝塔係數僅為 7%，我們預計要到明年某個時候才能達到 25% 的累積貝塔係數。當然，最終的累積貝塔值將取決於 FOMC 的貨幣行動以及貸款和存款活動。

Our securities portfolio continues to play an important role in achieving our asset sensitivity objectives. Slide 7 demonstrates the significant growth in balances and yield over the past year. Quarter-over-quarter, average balances increased $1.5 billion, reflecting the full benefit of our second quarter purchases, net of mark-to-market adjustments.

我們的證券組合在實現我們的資產敏感性目標方面繼續發揮重要作用。幻燈片 7 展示了過去一年餘額和收益率的顯著增長。與上一季度相比，平均餘額增加了 15 億美元，反映了我們第二季度採購的全部收益，扣除了按市值計算的調整。

Higher rates resulted in a mark-to-market of almost $1.2 billion at period end, and this impact runs through OCI and affects our book value, but not our regulatory capital ratios. While we maintain the portfolios available for sale, mostly for liquidity purposes, we typically hold these securities to maturity, in which case the unrealized losses should not impact income.

較高的利率導致期末按市值計價近 12 億美元，這種影響貫穿 OCI 並影響我們的賬面價值，但不影響我們的監管資本比率。雖然我們保留了可供出售的投資組合，主要是出於流動性目的，但我們通常將這些證券持有至到期，在這種情況下，未實現損失不應影響收入。

As another avenue to provide liquidity for loan growth, we see securities purchases partway through the quarter, which contributed to period-end balances declining to $19.5 billion. As the portfolio shrinks, we plan to manage our asset sensitivity through additional swaps as needed.

作為為貸款增長提供流動性的另一個途徑，我們看到本季度中途購買證券，導致期末餘額下降至 195 億美元。隨著投資組合的縮小，我們計劃根據需要通過額外的掉期來管理我們的資產敏感性。

Over the past year, we have concentrated our purchases in Agency CMBS, with the goal of delivering more consistent cash flows with an average duration of slightly over 5 years. The larger average portfolio, along with the favorable new purchase yields, resulted in a $19 million increase in securities income.

在過去的一年裡，我們將採購集中在代理 CMBS，目標是提供更穩定的現金流，平均持續時間略高於 5 年。更大的平均投資組合以及有利的新購買收益率導致證券收入增加了 1900 萬美元。

Turning to Slide 8. Net interest income increased $146 million to a record $707 million and the net interest margin increased 80 basis points. The benefit from higher rates lifted loan income $128 million and added 64 basis points to the margin. Although the rate environment has increased the cost of borrowing for our customers, we have not seen a meaningful increase in competitive pressure on spreads.

轉到幻燈片 8。淨利息收入增加了 1.46 億美元，達到創紀錄的 7.07 億美元，淨息差增加了 80 個基點。更高利率帶來的好處增加了 1.28 億美元的貸款收入，並使利潤率增加了 64 個基點。儘管利率環境增加了我們客戶的借貸成本，但我們並沒有看到利差的競爭壓力顯著增加。

Loan growth added $13 million and 2 basis points. One additional day in the quarter provided $4 million. As I mentioned, the increase in the size of the securities portfolio at higher yields added $19 million. As far as deposits of the Fed, higher rates combined with lower balances added $11 million and 26 basis points to the margin. Higher rates on our floating rate wholesale debt, in addition to our subordinated debt offering, had a $15 million impact. Altogether, the rising rates provided a net benefit of $151 million to net interest income.

貸款增長增加了 1300 萬美元和 2 個基點。本季度的額外一天提供了 400 萬美元。正如我所提到的，更高收益率的證券投資組合規模增加了 1900 萬美元。至於美聯儲的存款，較高的利率加上較低的餘額使保證金增加了 1100 萬美元和 26 個基點。除了我們的次級債發行之外，我們浮動利率批發債務的更高利率產生了 1500 萬美元的影響。總體而言，利率上升為淨利息收入帶來了 1.51 億美元的淨收益。

Credit quality remained excellent as outlined on Slide 9. Net charge-offs were only 10 basis points, well below historical averages. Criticized and nonaccrual loans also stayed low. With the heightened economic uncertainty, our allowance for credit losses increased modestly to 1.21% of loans. Our provision increased to $28 million.

如幻燈片 9 所述，信用質量仍然出色。淨沖銷僅為 10 個基點，遠低於歷史平均水平。受批評和非應計貸款也保持在低位。隨著經濟不確定性的加劇，我們的信貸損失準備金小幅增加至貸款的 1.21%。我們的撥備增加到 2800 萬美元。

As always, we are closely monitoring the portfolio for signs of stress and are proactive in our credit management. We have begun to see some signs of normalization in certain portfolios. With our consistent disciplined approach as well as our relationship model and diverse customer base, we believe we are well positioned to manage through a recessionary environment.

與往常一樣，我們密切關注投資組合的壓力跡象，並積極進行信用管理。我們已經開始在某些投資組合中看到一些正常化的跡象。憑藉我們一貫嚴謹的方法以及我們的關係模型和多樣化的客戶群，我們相信我們有能力在經濟衰退的環境中進行管理。

Noninterest income increased $10 million or 4% as outlined on Slide 10. Deferred comp, which is offset in expenses increased $11 million and was still a headwind in absolute terms with a $3 million negative return for the quarter. Overall, fee generation remained strong, led by growth in derivative income of $6 million due to energy and interest rate-related activity, which included a $2 million increase in favorable CVA adjustments.

如幻燈片 10 所述，非利息收入增加了 1000 萬美元或 4%。被費用抵消的遞延補償增加了 1100 萬美元，但絕對值仍然是逆風，本季度的負回報為 300 萬美元。總體而言，由於能源和利率相關活動導致衍生收入增長 600 萬美元，其中包括有利的 CVA 調整增加了 200 萬美元，費用產生仍然強勁。

Brokerage service fees grew as a result of increased money market funds revenue. This growth was partially offset by reductions in fiduciary income and card fees. Annual tax fees received in the second quarter and market activity impacted fiduciary income and a decline in volumes affected card fees.

經紀服務費因貨幣市場基金收入增加而增加。這一增長被信託收入和信用卡費用的減少部分抵消。第二季度收到的年度稅費和市場活動影響了信託收入，而交易量的下降影響了卡費。

Turning to expenses on Slide 11. Our efficiency ratio improved 7 percentage points to 51% as we continue to maintain our expense discipline while revenue generation accelerates and we position for future growth. Salaries and benefits increased $13 million, primarily due to the $11 million change in deferred compensation, which is offset in noninterest income.

轉向幻燈片 11 上的費用。我們的效率比提高了 7 個百分點，達到 51%，因為我們繼續保持我們的費用紀律，同時加速創收並為未來的增長做好準備。工資和福利增加了 1300 萬美元，主要是由於遞延薪酬發生了 1100 萬美元的變化，這被非利息收入所抵消。

Beyond deferred compensation, we saw an increase in performance-based incentives tied to our strong financial results. Of note, our staff levels were stable as we successfully retain and attract talent in this competitive market.

除了遞延薪酬外，我們還看到與我們強勁的財務業績相關的基於績效的激勵措施有所增加。值得注意的是，由於我們在這個競爭激烈的市場中成功留住和吸引人才，因此我們的員工水平保持穩定。

Occupancy expense increased $4 million, driven by seasonality and a new lease in our Farmington Hills location. Outside processing for our card programs, largely driven by rate-related pricing, increased $2 million. We made progress on certain modernization initiatives and incurred $7 million in costs, consistent with the second quarter expense.

由於季節性因素和我們在法明頓山的新租約，佔用費用增加了 400 萬美元。我們的信用卡計劃的外部處理（主要受費率相關定價的推動）增加了 200 萬美元。我們在某些現代化舉措方面取得了進展，並產生了 700 萬美元的成本，與第二季度的支出一致。

As previously discussed, this is a journey which includes transformation of our retail banking delivery model, alignment of corporate facilities and technology optimization. The cost savings generated are expected to be reinvested as we continue to evolve.

如前所述，這是一個包括零售銀行交付模式轉型、企業設施調整和技術優化的旅程。隨著我們的不斷發展，所產生的成本節約預計將被重新投資。

Slide 12 provides details on capital management. With record earnings, our strong capital generation outpaced capital needed to support loan and commitment growth. Thus, our CET1 ratio increased to an estimated 9.92%. As always, our priority is to use our capital to support our customers and drive growth, while providing an attractive return to our shareholders.

幻燈片 12 提供了有關資本管理的詳細信息。憑藉創紀錄的收益，我們強大的資本生成速度超過了支持貸款和承諾增長所需的資本。因此，我們的 CET1 比率增加到估計的 9.92%。一如既往，我們的首要任務是利用我們的資金支持我們的客戶並推動增長，同時為我們的股東提供有吸引力的回報。

We closely monitor loan and profitability trends as we balance maintaining our CET1 target of approximately 10% with our dividend and share repurchase strategy. Our common equity declined in the third quarter as a result of the impact of OCI losses from our securities and swap portfolios. Excluding the AOCI losses, our common equity per share increased to $1.98 or over 3%. Also note that our tangible common equity was 4.82%. However, excluding AOCI, it increased to 9.12%.

我們密切關注貸款和盈利趨勢，因為我們在維持約 10% 的 CET1 目標與我們的股息和股票回購策略之間取得平衡。由於我們的證券和掉期投資組合的 OCI 損失的影響，我們的普通股在第三季度有所下降。剔除 AOCI 損失，我們的每股普通股增至 1.98 美元或超過 3%。另請注意，我們的有形普通股權益為 4.82%。然而，不包括AOCI，它增加到9.12%。

Slide 13 provides an update on our interest rate sensitivity. Over the past year, we have been working to fulfill our strategy to lock in higher rates and achieve a strong and more predictable earnings stream through the rate cycle by reducing volatility to net interest income. Based on our standard model with a 100-basis-point decrease in rates over 12 months, we have achieved our target for a low-single-digit percent impact to net interest income and yet maintain some upside should rates continue to rise. We are now focused on smoothing the periods further out to maintain our target level of sensitivity, mainly through the purchase of forward-dated swaps.

幻燈片 13 提供了我們對利率敏感度的最新信息。在過去的一年裡，我們一直在努力實現我們的戰略，即通過降低淨利息收入的波動性來鎖定更高的利率，並通過利率週期實現強勁且更可預測的收益流。根據我們在 12 個月內利率下降 100 個基點的標準模型，我們已經實現了對淨利息收入產生低個位數百分比影響的目標，但如果利率繼續上升，我們仍會保持一些上行空間。我們現在專注於進一步平滑這些時期，以維持我們的目標敏感度水平，主要是通過購買遠期掉期。

Considering expected loan and deposit activity, including some acceleration of our deposit pricing, along with the September 30 forward curve, we forecast net interest income to grow by 4% to 5% in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter. Full year 2022 is expected to exceed 2021 by more than 33%. We utilized our model to provide scenarios, including a 100-basis-point gradual increase in rates over a 12-month period, which resulted in an approximate $35 million increase in net interest income.

考慮到預期的貸款和存款活動，包括我們存款定價的一些加速，以及 9 月 30 日的遠期曲線，我們預測第四季度的淨利息收入將比第三季度增長 4% 至 5%。預計 2022 年全年將超過 2021 年 33% 以上。我們利用我們的模型來提供情景，包括在 12 個月內逐步提高利率 100 個基點，這導致淨利息收入增加了約 3500 萬美元。

In addition, we modeled a catch-up of a 25% cumulative beta when rates began to rise in March on top of the 100-basis-point up scenario, which resulted in an estimated $35 million headwind to net interest income. Of course, there are many dynamics which may cause model results to differ from actual outcomes.

此外，我們模擬了 25% 累積貝塔的追趕，當時利率在 100 個基點的上升情景之上於 3 月開始上升，這導致估計淨利息收入面臨 3500 萬美元的逆風。當然，有許多動態可能導致模型結果與實際結果不同。

Overall, we believe our predictability of earnings provides us the ability to more consistently invest in our business and, thereby, grow customers and revenue and provide to more compelling investment thesis for our shareholders.

總體而言，我們相信我們對收益的可預測性使我們能夠更持續地投資於我們的業務，從而增加客戶和收入，並為我們的股東提供更具吸引力的投資論點。

Our outlook for the fourth quarter and full year 2022 is on Slide 14 and assumes a continuation of the current economic environment. We are working on our 2023 financial plan and expect to provide our customary full year guidance during our fourth quarter conference call, but I will offer some color as we go through each line item.

我們對 2022 年第四季度和全年的展望在幻燈片 14 上，並假設當前的經濟環境會持續下去。我們正在製定 2023 年財務計劃，並希望在第四季度電話會議期間提供我們慣常的全年指導，但我會在我們處理每個項目時提供一些顏色。

Loan growth has been robust so far this year, and we expect 2022 full year loan growth to exceed 7%, excluding PPP loans. This includes our expectation for average loan growth of approximately 1% in the fourth quarter. Positive trends are expected in most of our businesses in the fourth quarter, however, at a more moderate pace given the slowdown in economic activity.

今年到目前為止，貸款增長強勁，我們預計 2022 年全年貸款增長將超過 7%，不包括 PPP 貸款。這包括我們對第四季度平均貸款增長約 1% 的預期。預計第四季度我們的大多數業務都將出現積極趨勢，但鑑於經濟活動放緩，步伐會較為溫和。

Mortgage Banker is expected to continue to be a headwind. Assuming economic conditions do not change materially, we expect continued solid growth into next year. We expect deposit trends to continue as customers draw down on deposits to support their businesses and, in some cases, seek higher-yielding options. Looking into next year, the timing and the scale of deposit activity is expected to be highly influenced by Fed tightening actions and the economic environment.

Mortgage Banker 預計將繼續成為逆風。假設經濟狀況沒有發生重大變化，我們預計明年將繼續穩健增長。我們預計存款趨勢將繼續，因為客戶提取存款以支持他們的業務，並在某些情況下尋求更高收益的選擇。展望明年，預計存款活動的時機和規模將受到美聯儲收緊政策和經濟環境的高度影響。

As discussed in the previous slide, we project strong fourth quarter net interest income, up 4% to 5% over a record third quarter. As we think about 2023, we expect to benefit from higher rates and loan volume. On the other hand, deposit balances and pricing could put pressure on 2023 net interest income relative to the fourth quarter run rate.

如上一張幻燈片所述，我們預計第四季度的淨利息收入將比創紀錄的第三季度增長 4% 至 5%。在我們考慮 2023 年時，我們預計將受益於更高的利率和貸款量。另一方面，相對於第四季度的運行率，存款餘額和定價可能會給 2023 年的淨利息收入帶來壓力。

Regardless, we expect net interest income to be at another all-time high next year. Credit quality has been excellent, and we expect it to remain strong in the fourth quarter. Therefore, we forecast net charge-offs at the lower end of our normal range of 20 to 40 basis points. We believe we will begin to see gradual normalization, assuming the macroeconomic challenges remain manageable.

無論如何，我們預計明年的淨利息收入將再創歷史新高。信用質量一直很好，我們預計第四季度將保持強勁。因此，我們預測淨沖銷在我們正常範圍 20 至 40 個基點的下限。我們相信，假設宏觀經濟挑戰仍然可控，我們將開始看到逐步正常化。

We expect fourth quarter noninterest income to decline approximately 3% from strong third quarter levels. We expect pressures on derivatives given recent elevated levels, deposit service charges from higher ECA rates, a softening syndication market and equity trends may impact fiduciary revenue. This is expected to be partly offset by positive seasonal trends in areas such as card.

我們預計第四季度的非利息收入將比第三季度的強勁水平下降約 3%。我們預計，鑑於近期較高的水平、較高的 ECA 利率導致的存款服務費用、疲軟的銀團市場和股票趨勢，衍生品將面臨壓力，可能會影響信託收入。預計這將被卡片等領域的積極季節性趨勢部分抵消。

As we look into 2023, we expect noninterest income to grow as we start to see the benefit of our investments. We expect fourth quarter expenses to grow approximately 2% to 3%, including expenses tied to revenue-generating related activity, such as outside processing for card. In addition, we expect seasonally higher occupancy, advertising, staff insurance as well as travel and entertainment expenses.

展望 2023 年，我們預計非利息收入將會增長，因為我們開始看到我們的投資帶來的好處。我們預計第四季度費用將增長約 2% 至 3%，包括與創收相關活動相關的費用，例如卡的外部處理。此外，我們預計入住率、廣告、員工保險以及差旅和娛樂費用將出現季節性增長。

This outlook excludes up to $25 million of modernization initiatives that we anticipate in the fourth quarter. We believe these strategic investments in our business will deliver value over time and are essential in meeting the evolving needs of our customers and colleagues.

這一前景不包括我們預計在第四季度實施的高達 2500 萬美元的現代化計劃。我們相信，這些對我們業務的戰略投資將隨著時間的推移創造價值，對於滿足客戶和同事不斷變化的需求至關重要。

In 2023, we expect moderately higher staffing levels as the tight labor market eases, and we continue to make progress in implementing our revenue strategies. Given the market's performance, pension expense is likely to move significantly higher. We also anticipate inflationary factors to impact many areas such as salaries and benefits, along with higher FDIC expense.

到 2023 年，隨著勞動力市場緊張的緩解，我們預計人員配置水平將適度提高，並且我們在實施收入戰略方面繼續取得進展。鑑於市場表現，養老金支出可能會大幅上漲。我們還預計通脹因素會影響工資和福利等許多領域，以及更高的 FDIC 費用。

In summary, based on our expectations for the fourth quarter, and our performance to date, we believe we will produce very strong and record revenue results this year. We have driven robust loan growth and strong fee generation. In addition, we've benefited from higher rates while executing our hedging strategy and careful management of credit and expenses. We expect to carry our momentum into the fourth quarter and finish the year strong.

總之，根據我們對第四季度的預期以及我們迄今為止的表現，我們相信我們今年將產生非常強勁和創紀錄的收入結果。我們推動了強勁的貸款增長和強勁的費用產生。此外，我們在執行對沖策略和謹慎管理信貸和費用時受益於更高的利率。我們預計將把我們的勢頭延續到第四季度，並以強勁的勢頭結束這一年。

Now I'll turn the call back to Curt.

現在我將把電話轉回給 Curt。

Thank you, Jim. Many business lines are showing positive trends, with strong loan growth in addition to increases in commitments and a very solid pipeline. Our unique expertise and credit culture provide us a steady foundation and help produce a record level of profitability, while our investments in talent, technology and markets facilitate continued growth to support our future.

謝謝你，吉姆。許多業務線都呈現出積極的趨勢，除了承諾增加和非常穩固的管道外，貸款增長強勁。我們獨特的專業知識和信用文化為我們提供了穩固的基礎，幫助創造了創紀錄的盈利水平，而我們在人才、技術和市場方面的投資促進了持續增長，以支持我們的未來。

Management of our balance sheet allows us to benefit from rising rates, while reducing the impact from lower rates, which we believe will provide a more consistent earnings trajectory through the cycles. It was a record quarter, and I remain grateful for the continued commitment of my colleagues who are dedicated to ensure Comerica's success. We believe we are well positioned to deliver strong results as we end the year and move into 2023.

資產負債表的管理使我們能夠從利率上升中受益，同時減少利率下降的影響，我們相信這將在整個週期中提供更一致的收益軌跡。這是一個創紀錄的季度，我仍然感謝致力於確保 Comerica 成功的同事們的持續承諾。我們相信，在年底並進入 2023 年時，我們已做好準備交付強勁的業績。

Before we take questions, I would like to recognize Darlene Persons who recently announced her retirement. After a 36-year career with our company, 16 years as Director of Investor Relations, one of the longest-serving IR directors in the banking industry, she has steered us through many cycles. And her guidance, not only to me and our leadership team, but to our whole company has been invaluable.

在我們提問之前，我想感謝最近宣布退休的 Darlene Persons。在我們公司工作了 36 年，擔任了 16 年的投資者關係總監（銀行業任職時間最長的 IR 總監之一）之後，她帶領我們度過了許多周期。她的指導，不僅對我和我們的領導團隊，而且對我們整個公司都是無價的。

I'd also like to introduce our new IR Director, Kelly Gage, who's had an 18-year career with us, deep commercial banking background, most recently as the National Director of Sales and Strategy for the Commercial Bank. Kelly will do a great job in her new role as IR Director, and I know you'll look forward to getting to know her, right? So with that, we'd be happy to take your questions and open up the lines.

我還想介紹一下我們的新 IR 總監 Kelly Gage，他在我們的職業生涯已有 18 年，擁有深厚的商業銀行背景，最近擔任商業銀行的全國銷售和戰略總監。凱利將在她作為 IR 總監的新角色中做得很好，我知道你會期待認識她，對吧？因此，我們很樂意接受您的問題並打開線路。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Jon Arfstrom。

Congrats, Darlene. I just want to say congratulations. Just a question for you, Jim, on some of the comments where you talked about -- I know you don't want to go into 2023 too much, but you talked about the potential for 2023 NII pulling back a little bit from Q4. Can you help us understand that a little bit more? And then just remind us of the overall goals of what you're trying to do in this kind of rate environment in terms of the rate hedging?

恭喜，達琳。我只想說祝賀。吉姆，只是問你一個問題，關於你談到的一些評論——我知道你不想過多地進入 2023 年，但你談到了 2023 年 NII 有可能從第四季度回落一點。你能幫我們多理解一點嗎？然後只是提醒我們在這種利率環境下，就利率對沖而言，你試圖做的總體目標是什麼？

Yes. Thank you for the question. I do think the fourth quarter run rate is a great starting point in terms of how to start thinking about 2023. There are reasons we could be a little bit below that. There are reasons we could be a little above it. If deposit betas catch up very quickly on a cumulative basis, or exceed 25%, and/or deposit runoff continues through 2023, I think we could be below that run rate.

是的。感謝你的提問。我確實認為，就如何開始考慮 2023 年而言，第四季度的運行率是一個很好的起點。我們可能會低於這個水平是有原因的。有一些原因我們可能會略高於它。如果存款貝塔在累積基礎上很快趕上，或超過 25%，和/或存款徑流持續到 2023 年，我認為我們可能會低於該運行率。

On the other hand, if deposit betas take some time to catch up, say, sometime after the first quarter or through midyear, and deposits start to level off, the runoff starts to level off in the beginning of '23, then I think there's a reasonable chance we could be above that run rate. So I think you could go either direction. There's just some open questions in terms of how deposit pricing will progress and how the runoff will progress over the next several quarters.

另一方面，如果存款貝塔需要一些時間才能趕上，比如說，在第一季度之後或年中的某個時間，存款開始趨於平穩，徑流在 23 年初開始趨於平穩，那麼我認為我們有合理的機會超過該運行率。所以我認為你可以去任何一個方向。關於存款定價將如何發展以及未來幾個季度徑流將如何發展，只是一些懸而未決的問題。

But again, I would just say that I think the run rate in the fourth quarter is a pretty good place to start and just be aware that there are some factors that could potentially move that down, but there is some upside to that also.

但是，我只想說，我認為第四季度的運行率是一個很好的起點，只是要知道有一些因素可能會降低運行率，但也有一些好處。

In terms of what we're trying to accomplish, I think the message has been consistent. I think we've met the objectives that we've set. We are trying to stabilize net interest income. We feel like we've achieved that. We've left a little bit to the upside if rates do continue to go up as we approach the peak here. As I mentioned in my comments, I don't think we're going to be doing any hedging activity other than replacing securities that run off. That would start in the next 12 months.

就我們要完成的工作而言，我認為信息是一致的。我認為我們已經達到了我們設定的目標。我們正在努力穩定淨利息收入。我們覺得我們已經做到了。如果在我們接近這裡的峰值時利率確實繼續上漲，我們已經留下了一點上行空間。正如我在評論中提到的那樣，我認為除了更換流失的證券外，我們不會進行任何對沖活動。這將在接下來的 12 個月內開始。

If you look at -- in the appendix, we have a little bit of a maturity curve of our swaps. And from that, you would infer that we're really going to work on forward starters that might start in later '24, eventually maybe even '25, but we feel like we've taken care of business in the near term. So we feel really good about the positioning.

如果你看一下——在附錄中，我們有一點點掉期的到期曲線。從中，你會推斷我們真的會在 24 年晚些時候開始工作，最終甚至可能在 25 年開始，但我們覺得我們在短期內已經處理好了業務。所以我們對定位感覺非常好。

We've essentially achieved, by far, in a way, a record level of net interest income, and at the same time, largely protected that record level of net interest income. So -- and I think we've gotten to where we want to be, and we're enjoying the fruits of that right now.

到目前為止，在某種程度上，我們基本上實現了創紀錄的淨利息收入水平，同時在很大程度上保護了創紀錄的淨利息收入水平。所以——我認為我們已經達到了我們想要的目標，我們現在正在享受它的成果。

Yes. That's fair. I'm surprised by the increase in the margin. So that was nice to see. And I guess one more question. I think I know the answer to it, but I've had a couple of e-mails back on my note this morning. Can you touch a little bit on your tangible common equity ratio, and how you view that? I know you may not think it's a big deal, but some people ask about it. So can you just touch on how you think about that level?

是的。這還算公平。我對利潤率的增加感到驚訝。所以很高興看到。我猜還有一個問題。我想我知道答案，但今天早上我收到了幾封電子郵件。你能談談你的有形普通股比率嗎？你怎麼看？我知道你可能認為這沒什麼大不了的，但有些人會問這個問題。那麼你能談談你對那個級別的看法嗎？

Yes, I continue to believe it's an optic, but nothing more than that. As I've mentioned before, from an economic standpoint, the value of our deposits has gone up significantly, offsetting, if not more than offsetting that loss on securities and swaps. So, economically, we like what we're seeing. You see that in the results in terms of the earnings. As we stay in touch with various constituents, everyone admits to an optic, but everyone struggles to find really any substantial issue with it. So it's really not a point of concern for us. And I just think it's an odd-looking optic given the unprecedented run-up in interest rates and really nothing more than that.

是的，我仍然相信它是一種光學器件，但僅此而已。正如我之前提到的，從經濟角度來看，我們的存款價值大幅上漲，抵消了，如果不超過抵消證券和掉期的損失。所以，從經濟上講，我們喜歡我們所看到的。您可以在收益方面的結果中看到這一點。當我們與各種成分保持聯繫時，每個人都承認有一種光學，但每個人都很難找到它的任何實質性問題。所以這對我們來說真的不是一個問題。鑑於利率史無前例的上漲，我只是認為這看起來很奇怪，實際上僅此而已。

And our next question comes from the line of Scott Siefers.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Siefers。

Jim, I wanted to ask about the deposit levels. I think previously, we had sort of been hoping the bulk of deposit runoff would finish in sort of fourth quarter or first quarter. You guys still have a very, very low loan-to-deposit ratio, but I guess, just curious on your thinking on sort of when or where we could see the deposits level out? And at what point would you want to get more aggressive on pricing to protect those balances? In other words, just a little more color on the -- sort of the push and pull between volume and rate in your view?

吉姆，我想問一下存款水平。我認為以前，我們一直希望大部分存款徑流將在第四季度或第一季度完成。你們的貸存比仍然非常非常低，但我想，只是好奇你對我們何時何地可以看到存款趨於平穩的想法？您希望在什麼時候更積極地定價以保護這些餘額？換句話說，在你看來，只是在音量和速率之間的推拉上多一點顏色？

Yes, Scott, thank you for the question. First of all, I'll say that I think we're pretty comfortable with the pricing approach up to this point. We obviously have a low year-to-date beta, low beta for the quarter. But being primarily a commercial bank, we feel like we do have these conversations with our customers. And to the extent we've lost deposits, it's been very knowingly, and we certainly haven't lost any relationships, and we have the ability to ramp up some of that exception pricing if we really need to.

是的，斯科特，謝謝你的問題。首先，我認為到目前為止我們對定價方法感到非常滿意。我們顯然有一個低的年初至今的貝塔，本季度的低貝塔。但主要是一家商業銀行，我們覺得我們確實與客戶進行了這些對話。就我們損失存款的程度而言，這是非常有意識的，我們當然沒有失去任何關係，如果我們真的需要，我們有能力提高一些例外定價。

We have raised our standard pricing on the retail side, which touches retail and wealth customers. So we feel really comfortable with the pricing approach. But in terms of where deposit runoff goes, I really think it's going to be highly dependent on Fed policy. I think the combination of QT as well as the rising rates, those two factors will drive what happens in 2023. We obviously expect the runoff to continue through the fourth quarter at a similar pace that we've seen.

我們提高了零售方面的標准定價，這涉及零售和財富客戶。因此，我們對定價方法感到非常滿意。但就存款流失的去向而言，我真的認為這將高度依賴美聯儲的政策。我認為 QT 和利率上升的結合，這兩個因素將推動 2023 年發生的事情。我們顯然預計徑流將以我們看到的類似速度持續到第四季度。

I do want to caveat that we could see some seasonal deposits in the fourth quarter as we often see. Seasonal trends have been rendered a little bit not as reliable over the last odd 2 or 3 years. So it is possible we get some seasonal deposits that mute that run off in the fourth quarter. But I think that runoff would then just manifest in the first quarter. I think it would be probably a temporary reprieve if we get those seasonal deposits.

我確實想提醒一下，我們可能會像我們經常看到的那樣在第四季度看到一些季節性存款。在過去的奇怪的 2 或 3 年裡，季節性趨勢變得有點不可靠。因此，我們可能會得到一些季節性存款，這些存款會在第四季度流失。但我認為徑流只會在第一季度顯現。我認為，如果我們得到這些季節性存款，這可能是暫時的緩刑。

But it's still our outlook that things start to level off early in 2023. I do think if the Fed continues with QT for the next year, 1.5 years, as they planned to, I guess it's actually 2 years, you could see some deposits continue to run off even after early 2023. But I like to remind people, the Fed never did fully unwind QE from previous cycles. It seems very plausible to me they won't fully unwind it this cycle. You've already seen some literature in various industry magazines that there are some concerns by the regulators and the Fed regarding just some of the deposit runoff at banks.

但我們仍然認為事情在 2023 年初開始趨於平穩。我確實認為，如果美聯儲按照他們的計劃在明年繼續使用 QT，1.5 年，我猜實際上是 2 年，你可能會看到一些存款繼續甚至在 2023 年初之後也會退出。但我想提醒人們，美聯儲從未完全從之前的周期中退出量化寬鬆政策。在我看來，他們不會在這個週期中完全放鬆它，這似乎很合理。您已經在各種行業雜誌上看到了一些文獻，表明監管機構和美聯儲對銀行的部分存款流失存在一些擔憂。

So, at this point, our house case is still first to level off in early '23 and we certainly have plenty of efficient borrowing lines. We have access to broker deposits. We can even get more aggressive in conversations with our customers in terms of where they place their money. So we feel like we have a lot of optionality there.

所以，在這一點上，我們的房屋案例仍然首先在 23 年初趨於平穩，我們當然有很多有效的借貸線。我們可以使用經紀人存款。我們甚至可以更積極地與客戶就他們的錢放在哪裡進行對話。所以我們覺得我們在那裡有很多選擇權。

Okay. Wonderful. And then I was hoping you could also discuss the higher modernization costs in the fourth quarter. Will that be kind of a high watermark? Or will they continue much beyond the fourth quarter or sort of end with the end of this calendar year?

好的。精彩的。然後我希望你也可以討論第四季度更高的現代化成本。這會是一種高水印嗎？或者他們會在第四季度之後繼續下去，還是在今年年底結束？

Yes. Thank you for that question. I think that's an important one. Based on the initiatives that we've identified up till now, I think the fourth quarter would be the high watermark, and that assumes we set up to $25 million. There's always a chance some of these lease exits could be delayed until next year. So my answer obviously is caveated based on the timing of when these actually happen.

是的。謝謝你的問題。我認為這是一個重要的。根據我們迄今為止確定的舉措，我認為第四季度將是高水位線，假設我們設置了 2500 萬美元。這些租賃退出中的一些總是有可能推遲到明年。所以我的回答顯然是基於這些實際發生的時間。

But if they do happen in the fourth quarter of '22, as we expect, based on the initiatives we've identified, this would be the high watermark. Having said that, there could be some additional initiatives that we identify over time. We're always talking about some of the potentials out there. But this one will be a little bit more of an outsized one and could be the high watermark.

但是，如果它們確實發生在 22 年第四季度，正如我們預期的那樣，根據我們確定的舉措，這將是高水位線。話雖如此，隨著時間的推移，我們可能會發現一些額外的舉措。我們一直在談論那裡的一些潛力。但是這個會有點大一點，可能是高水位線。

And our next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess maybe just first question. I know banks are not really seeing anything in terms of credit paying yet. But give us a sense of like the Fed fees and interest rates, obviously, it's benefiting in loan yields right now. But how are customers kind of absorbing these? Like are you worried about what this may mean as we look out into next year in terms of just the ability of your customer base to live with 4% to 5% Fed funds rate? And just the level of visibility you have there in terms of all of a sudden seeing a big drop off in how customers are able to service their debt?

我想也許只是第一個問題。我知道銀行在信用支付方面還沒有真正看到任何東西。但是給我們一種感覺，就像美聯儲的費用和利率，顯然，它現在正在受益於貸款收益率。但是客戶是如何吸收這些的呢？您是否擔心這可能意味著什麼，因為我們展望明年，您的客戶群是否有能力承受 4% 至 5% 的聯邦基金利率？就突然間看到客戶償還債務的能力大幅下降而言，您在那裡的可見度水平如何？

So it sounds like the question is the ability of our customers to withstand the economic pressures of the higher rates from a credit standpoint?

所以聽起來問題是從信用的角度來看，我們的客戶是否有能力承受更高利率的經濟壓力？

Yes. This is Melinda. I would say that, overall, we feel really good about our customers' ability to kind of manage through the current interest rate environment. Every time we do an underwriting, we stress interest rates, whether we're in a low rate environment or a high rate environment. And we think we do a really nice job of making sure that whatever the debt load is of the customer that they've got the ability to manage through that.

是的。這是梅琳達。我想說，總的來說，我們對客戶在當前利率環境下的管理能力感到非常滿意。每次我們進行承銷時，我們都會強調利率，無論我們處於低利率環境還是高利率環境。我們認為我們做得非常好，確保無論客戶的債務負擔是什麼，他們都有能力解決這個問題。

We also have a relatively low leverage book overall. So the actual leverage portfolio would be the one that we're watching really closely. Obviously, given their debt levels, they are more sensitive, but we also use strategies like swaps and fixing rates in order to make sure that we can protect the cash flow and the company's ability to kind of repay the debt. So overall, I think we feel really good about our customers' ability to navigate the environment.

總體而言，我們的槓桿率也相對較低。因此，實際的槓桿投資組合將是我們正在密切關注的投資組合。顯然，鑑於他們的債務水平，他們更加敏感，但我們也使用掉期和固定利率等策略，以確保我們能夠保護現金流和公司償還債務的能力。所以總的來說，我認為我們對客戶駕馭環境的能力感到非常滿意。

Got it. How big is that leverage book?

知道了。那本槓桿書有多大？

A little over $3 billion.

略高於 30 億美元。

And just one follow-up, Jim. On the asset side, we saw about 100 basis points increase quarter-over-quarter. Just talk to us in terms of how you see the asset yields trending going from here in terms of any spread compression that you expect or the 100 basis points relative to the rate hikes we saw in the third quarter that should hold for the next few quarters?

吉姆，只有一個後續行動。在資產方面，我們看到環比增長約 100 個基點。只需與我們談談您如何看待資產收益率從這裡開始的趨勢，即您預期的任何價差壓縮或相對於我們在第三季度看到的未來幾個季度應該保持的加息的 100 個基點?

Yes. I think these metrics will largely hold up. This was struck on 9/30 as a model run. And as deposits run off, you could see a little bit of movement in those calculations, but I think the rule of thumb will hold pretty well.

是的。我認為這些指標將在很大程度上保持不變。這是在 9/30 作為模型運行時發生的。隨著存款的流失，你可以在這些計算中看到一些變化，但我認為經驗法則會很好。

Do you expect the asset yields to behave consistent with third quarter?

您預計資產收益率的表現是否與第三季度一致？

I'm sorry, expect what?

對不起，期待什麼？

Do you expect asset yields, loan yield repricing to be consistent with what we saw in the third quarter?

您是否預計資產收益率、貸款收益率重新定價與我們在第三季度看到的一致？

Loan yields will continue to go up in the fourth quarter over the third quarter.

第四季度的貸款收益率將繼續高於第三季度。

Got it. And what are the investment yields in the securities book relative to what's maturing?

知道了。相對於到期日，證券賬簿中的投資收益率是多少？

I'm sorry. Well, we are not buying securities, as I mentioned at this time. We are letting the securities run off. They're running off kind of in that $2.15, $2.17 range, just slightly above the overall portfolio average. So I expect securities yields to stay pretty flat. I mean you could see some very minor yield movement down quarter-to-quarter, but it's going to be almost a noticeable, I think, given how close the runoff is to the overall portfolio yield.

對不起。好吧，正如我在這個時候提到的，我們不購買證券。我們讓證券流失。它們在 2.15 美元到 2.17 美元的範圍內運行，略高於整體投資組合的平均水平。因此，我預計證券收益率將保持平穩。我的意思是你可能會看到一些非常小的收益率逐季度下降，但我認為，考慮到徑流與整體投資組合收益率的接近程度，這幾乎是一個明顯的變化。

And our next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 John Pancari 與 Evercore 的對話。

Just wanted to see if I can get a little bit more detail on Slide 13. I know you broke out that you see a $35 million NII benefit from your standard model, but assuming a 25% cumulative beta, you could see a $35 million NII decline. Pretty notable delta between the two, and is that -- maybe can you walk us through the puts and takes? Is it primarily just the beta assumption? Or are there other factors there that (inaudible) a noteworthy swing?

只是想看看我能否獲得更多關於幻燈片 13 的詳細信息。我知道您爆發說您從標準模型中看到了 3500 萬美元的 NII 收益，但假設累積 25% 的測試版，您可能會看到 3500 萬美元的 NII衰退。兩者之間的差異非常顯著，是嗎 - 也許你能帶我們了解一下看跌期權嗎？它主要只是beta假設嗎？或者那裡還有其他因素（聽不清）值得注意的擺動？

That is the beta assumption that's driving that. So if you do the math, the beta, obviously is having a $70 million impact relative to the 100 basis points up. So that's how you swing from $35 million positive to $35 million negative. We do have that cumulative beta kind of feathering in over the 12 months. So if it came as a shock, it could even be higher.

這是推動這一點的貝塔假設。因此，如果你算一算，相對於 100 個基點的上漲，beta 顯然會產生 7000 萬美元的影響。所以這就是你如何從 3500 萬美元的正數轉向 3500 萬美元的負數。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們確實有那種累積的 beta 羽化。因此，如果它令人震驚，它甚至可能更高。

But it is important to note that in our fourth quarter guidance, we actually have a lot of this cumulative beta in there. In fact, we get up to about a 17% cumulative beta by the end of the fourth quarter. So I think you can take some assurance by the fact that our guidance already has about half of this cumulative beta in it already. So you probably -- you got the other half of the cumulative beta, you're probably closer to 0 as opposed to this negative $35 million. So just some additional color for you there.

但重要的是要注意，在我們的第四季度指導中，我們實際上有很多這樣的累積測試版。事實上，到第四季度末，我們獲得了大約 17% 的累積 beta。因此，我認為您可以放心，我們的指南已經包含了大約一半的累積測試版。所以你可能 - 你得到了累積 beta 的另一半，你可能更接近於 0，而不是這個負的 3500 萬美元。所以只是給你一些額外的顏色。

Got it. Okay. And then just a quick follow-up to Ebrahim's question. You mentioned that you are letting securities run off, but are you -- just to clarify, are you reinvesting the cash flows back into the bond book? And what are those reinvestments?

知道了。好的。然後是對易卜拉欣問題的快速跟進。您提到您正在讓證券流失，但是您是否 - 只是為了澄清一下，您是否將現金流再投資回債券賬簿？這些再投資是什麼？

Yes. To be clear, we are not reinvesting them into the bond book. We are using this runoff to fund our loan growth, which we expect to continue to stay strong. And so for the -- probably, for the next -- for the foreseeable future, at least, we will not be buying securities. We think this is the most efficient way to fund our loan growth.

是的。需要明確的是，我們不會將它們再投資到債券賬簿中。我們正在利用這一徑流為我們的貸款增長提供資金，我們預計貸款增長將繼續保持強勁。因此，至少在可預見的未來，我們可能不會購買證券。我們認為這是為我們的貸款增長提供資金的最有效方式。

Okay. Got it. And if I could just ask one more. Back to the TCE topic, I know that you indicated that it's more optic from your point of view. So given that, how low are you willing to let that TCE to TA ratio go below that 4.82 level where it's at now? And does that influence you in any way at all when it comes to buyback interest when it comes to repurchases?

好的。知道了。如果我可以再問一個。回到 TCE 話題，我知道您表示從您的角度來看，它更具視覺性。因此，鑑於此，您願意讓 TCE 與 TA 的比率低於目前的 4.82 水平嗎？當涉及回購時，這是否會以任何方式影響您的回購興趣？

Yes. I mean are -- it's largely out of our control, of course, based on where interest rates go and how low that goes. But I can tell you, there is no magical number that we are focused on. And I would just reiterate that we don't think it's a concern. We don't think it should be a concern of others. And again, I just think it's an oddity of the times that we're seeing this type of movement, not just at Comerica, but, to some extent, at other banks, too.

是的。我的意思是——當然，這在很大程度上是我們無法控制的，這取決於利率的去向和多低。但我可以告訴你，我們關注的並不是一個神奇的數字。我只想重申，我們不認為這是一個問題。我們認為這不應該成為其他人的關注點。再說一次，我只是認為我們看到這種類型的運動是一個奇怪的時代，不僅在 Comerica，而且在某種程度上，在其他銀行也是如此。

And our next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ken Usdin 與 Jefferies 的對話。

I had a follow-up question on the deposit side. Obviously, we talked about the expected decline from here. One thing that's been interesting is that the interest-bearing has been declining faster than the noninterest bearing. It looks like you're about up to 57% noninterest-bearing. Can you help us understand how do you expect that mix to traject? Do you think you can actually uphold this better mix of free funding versus maybe what had happened in past cycles? Or is that just a TBD still as well?

我在存款方面有一個後續問題。顯然，我們從這裡談到了預期的下降。有趣的一件事是，計息比不計息下降得更快。看起來您的無息利率高達 57%。你能幫助我們了解你希望這種混合如何發展嗎？與過去的周期可能發生的情況相比，你認為你真的可以堅持這種更好的免費資金組合嗎？或者這只是一個待定？

Thanks for the question, Ken. This was a little bit of a surprise to us, too, for the mix to actually improve towards the higher noninterest-bearing. So we have done a little research into that and talked to customers and just analyzed various customers' accounts.

謝謝你的問題，肯。這對我們來說也有點意外，因為該組合實際上向更高的無息水平改善。因此，我們對此進行了一些研究，並與客戶進行了交談，並分析了各種客戶的帳戶。

My conclusion is, #1, we're just seeing the price sensitivity at this point of the cycle more on the interest-bearing side. I do think it will tip to the noninterest-bearing side eventually. But it feels like customers were first more price sensitive on the interest-bearing side of this. The other thing that we found kind of confirms the suspicion that we've had all along, and that's something that's been very similar to previous cycles when we've come out of some stress.

我的結論是，#1，我們只是在周期的這個時刻看到價格敏感性更多地出現在計息方面。我確實認為它最終會轉向不計息的一面。但感覺客戶首先對計息方面的價格更加敏感。我們發現的另一件事證實了我們一直以來的懷疑，這與我們擺脫壓力時的前幾個週期非常相似。

We do see the corporate treasurers are carrying higher safety net levels of cash, and that explains why they're maybe going to their interest-bearing accounts first to the extent they have use of funds. So I think those higher safety nets will probably be around for some time.

我們確實看到企業財務主管持有更高安全網水平的現金，這就解釋了為什麼他們可能會在使用資金的情況下首先進入他們的計息賬戶。所以我認為那些更高的安全網可能會存在一段時間。

The other anecdotally interesting thing that I don't know how large of a factor it is, but it might be a growing factor. We have heard from some corporate treasurers that real-time payments is making it more unpredictable or more difficult to predict cash flows. And so they're keeping some higher cash levels for that reason also. And that's something that might grow over time. So those are some of the observations that we've made.

另一個有趣的事情是我不知道它有多大，但它可能是一個不斷增長的因素。我們從一些公司財務主管那裡聽說，實時支付使預測現金流變得更加不可預測或更困難。因此，出於這個原因，他們也保持了更高的現金水平。這可能會隨著時間的推移而增長。以上是我們所做的一些觀察。

We do think it will reverse to some extent eventually. But I had mentioned in the last earnings call that I thought it would get back to the historical 50-50 ratio, if not slightly below where we've been historically. I'm not questioning whether or not we really get back there given the higher levels of safety net cash that these corporate treasurers are taking or holding.

我們確實認為它最終會在一定程度上逆轉。但我在上次財報電話會議中提到，我認為它會回到歷史 50-50 的比率，如果不是略低於我們的歷史水平的話。鑑於這些公司財務主管正在獲取或持有的安全網現金水平更高，我並不質疑我們是否真的能回到那裡。

So I do think it will reverse, but there's some question now as to whether or not it's really ever going to get back to that 50-50 mix.

所以我確實認為它會逆轉，但現在有一些問題是它是否真的會回到 50-50 的組合。

Yes. Great color. And second question, just on some of the loan buckets, I know you're talking about 1% growth sequentially average in the fourth quarter, but there's always a little bit of ups and downs in some of those national businesses. Can you just run us through some of the most important trends that you're seeing, noting the really big CRE growth this quarter and then your expected decline in mortgage, just kind of the ins and outs of the period end versus average difference as we look ahead?

是的。很棒的顏色。第二個問題，就一些貸款類別而言，我知道你說的是第四季度平均環比增長 1%，但在一些全國性企業中總會有一些起伏。您能否讓我們了解一下您所看到的一些最重要的趨勢，注意本季度 CRE 的真正大幅增長，然後是您預期的抵押貸款下降，只是期末與我們的平均差異的來龍去脈展望？

Yes. Ken, it's Peter. I think as we get into the fourth quarter, we continue to feel pretty directionally positive about -- just about all of our businesses. I think in the comments, we talked about broad-based loan growth and for the first time in a long time all of our businesses are seeing really good loan growth. The only kind of real headwind does continue to be mortgage banking finance going into the fourth quarter, I think, for obvious reasons of challenges in that space with higher interest rates and lower housing inventory.

是的。肯，是彼得。我認為隨著我們進入第四季度，我們繼續對我們所有的業務都感到非常積極。我認為在評論中，我們談到了廣泛的貸款增長，並且很長一段時間以來，我們所有的業務都第一次看到了非常好的貸款增長。我認為，唯一真正的逆風確實繼續是進入第四季度的抵押銀行融資，原因很明顯，該領域面臨更高的利率和更低的住房庫存。

But the rest of our sort of larger businesses, as you mentioned, commercial real estate, we expect Equity Fund Services to have a good quarter. Corporate Banking continues to be on a good trajectory, albeit we also don't know that if the fourth quarter looks like the third quarter, but it is positive trending and going into the end of the year. So we're pretty excited about sort of what we're seeing on those larger businesses.

但是，正如您提到的，我們的其他大型業務，商業房地產，我們預計股票基金服務將有一個良好的季度。企業銀行業務繼續走上良好的軌道，儘管我們也不知道第四季度是否會像第三季度一樣，但它是積極的趨勢，並將持續到年底。因此，我們對我們在這些大型企業中看到的情況感到非常興奮。

Dealer continues to slightly creep up. We get asked a lot about when that will return. And I don't know the answer to that. But quarter-over-quarter, you're starting to see a little bit of floor plan usage. And we continue to be a very active lender in that space. And, as mentioned, I have financed some of the M&A activity that you're seeing in Dealer. So it's nice to see a little bit of usage there as well.

經銷商繼續小幅攀升。我們被問到很多關於什麼時候會回來的問題。我不知道答案。但是季度環比，你開始看到一點平面圖的使用。我們仍然是該領域非常活躍的貸方。而且，如前所述，我資助了您在 Dealer 中看到的一些併購活動。所以很高興看到那裡也有一些使用。

And our next question comes from the line of Jennifer Demba with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Jennifer Demba。

Congratulations to Darlene, and welcome to Kelly. You mentioned in the monologue you're starting to see signs of normalization of credit. Could you give us some more color on that? And I believe you saw a slight increase in criticized loans from TLS area. Could you give us some color from that as well?

祝賀達琳，歡迎來到凱利。你在獨白中提到你開始看到信用正常化的跡象。你能給我們更多的顏色嗎？而且我相信您看到來自 TLS 地區的批評貸款略有增加。你能給我們一些顏色嗎？

Jennifer, thanks for the question. This is Melinda. Overall, we're really pleased with how the -- really, the entire portfolio has performed, and we have guided the last couple of quarters that, at some point, there's going to be some normalization of the credit metrics from these really, really historic low levels. And that's what we're starting to see, but very, very modest level of softening of performance in a couple of portfolios.

詹妮弗，謝謝你的問題。這是梅琳達。總體而言，我們對整個投資組合的表現感到非常滿意，並且我們已經指導了過去幾個季度，在某些時候，這些信用指標將會真正、非常地正常化歷史低位。這就是我們開始看到的，但在幾個投資組合中，表現的軟化程度非常、非常溫和。

And those portfolios, as I already mentioned, would be leveraged portfolio just given kind of the nature of that book. We watch that very, very closely. It continues to have some modest level of elevated criticized assets.

正如我已經提到的，這些投資組合將是槓桿投資組合，只是考慮到那本書的性質。我們非常非常密切地關注這一點。它繼續擁有一定程度的高批評資產。

We're also watching the automotive portfolio. That's not a huge portfolio for us, about $1 billion, and they have had obviously a lot of challenges coming out of the pandemic, the chip shortages and then just kind of layer on all the other inflationary pressures.

我們也在關注汽車產品組合。對我們來說，這不是一個龐大的投資組合，大約 10 億美元，而且他們顯然面臨著大流行、芯片短缺以及所有其他通脹壓力帶來的許多挑戰。

And then technology and life sciences, that business, by its very nature, also has a more elevated level of risk just given the fact that we do early-stage and mid-stage and some late-stage companies and some of those late-stage companies also tend to be leveraged. But we don't see anything in the portfolio that is giving us a lot of pause or a lot of reason for concern. And we have the rest of the portfolio, which, quite frankly, continues to perform extremely well.

然後是技術和生命科學，鑑於我們從事早期和中期公司以及一些後期公司和一些後期公司的事實，就其本質而言，該業務也具有更高的風險水平公司也傾向於被槓桿化。但是我們在投資組合中沒有看到任何讓我們停頓或擔心的理由。我們擁有其餘的投資組合，坦率地說，它們繼續表現非常出色。

So I would say kind of leverage, automotive and TLS are the areas that we're watching. And, yes, we did see a slight increase in the criticized, but our NPAs and our inflow to NPAs remain very, very well behaved.

所以我想說，汽車和 TLS 是我們正在關注的領域。而且，是的，我們確實看到批評的人數略有增加，但我們的 NPA 和流入 NPA 的行為仍然非常非常好。

Great. And my second question is on FDIC premiums, Jim. We know they're going up next year. Do you have any preliminary thoughts on what we can expect in '23?

偉大的。我的第二個問題是關於 FDIC 的保費，Jim。我們知道他們明年會上漲。你對我們在 23 年可以期待什麼有任何初步的想法嗎？

We could see an increase in the $15 million, $12 million to $15 million, I'll call it, $15 million range. So it will be significant, not just for Comerica, but for other banks also. So that will be a pressure point for 2023.

我們可以看到 1500 萬美元、1200 萬美元到 1500 萬美元的增長，我稱之為 1500 萬美元。因此，這將意義重大，不僅對 Comerica，對其他銀行也是如此。因此，這將是 2023 年的壓力點。

And our next question comes from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

Following up on your credit commentary, could you give a little bit more color on the increase in the reserve rate and where you would expect that to go if unemployment were to increase to say, 5% or 5.5%. Just curious for some of the assumptions underlying the current rate and where it could go under those circumstances?

跟進您的信用評論，您能否就準備金率的提高以及如果失業率上升到 5% 或 5.5% 的情況，您預計會走向何方提供更多的色彩。只是好奇當前利率背後的一些假設以及在這種情況下它會走向何方？

Sure. This is Melinda, again. And as you know, the CECL process happens every single quarter, and it's really highly dependent on the economic forecast at that time as well as the performance of the portfolio. So what we saw this quarter was a forecast, an economic forecast, that was slightly deteriorated from where we were at the end of the second quarter, although it was still positive, unemployment about 4% and GDP moderating below 1% for the next 12 months or so.

當然。又是梅琳達。如您所知，CECL 流程每個季度都會發生一次，它實際上高度依賴於當時的經濟預測以及投資組合的表現。所以我們本季度看到的是一個預測，一個經濟預測，與我們在第二季度末的情況相比略有惡化，儘管它仍然是積極的，未來 12 年失業率約為 4%，GDP 放緩至 1% 以下幾個月左右。

We use that base case scenario as well as a downside case. And in our downside case, we've already accounted for much higher unemployment in the range of 6% to 8% as well as negative GDP all the way through 2023. So we believe that we have accurately and adequately captured the risk of a downside scenario and a recession in the reserves, and we do that by the use of the qualitative. So we feel really good about our coverage ratio right now.

我們使用該基本情況以及不利情況。在我們的下行案例中，我們已經考慮到失業率在 6% 到 8% 的範圍內以及到 2023 年的負 GDP。因此，我們相信我們已經準確、充分地捕捉到了下行風險情景和儲備衰退，我們通過使用定性來做到這一點。所以我們現在對我們的覆蓋率感覺非常好。

Again, if you look at our fourth quarter trailing net charge-offs, you look at what our NPA levels are and then the overall strength of the book overall, I think our coverage ratio, right now, is reflective with an adequate amount of conservatism.

再一次，如果你看看我們第四季度的尾隨淨沖銷，你看看我們的 NPA 水平是多少，然後看看這本書的整體實力，我認為我們現在的覆蓋率反映了足夠的保守主義.

So following up on that, could you give a little bit more color on the weightings that you ascribed to each of those scenarios? And perhaps if we did enter into that more greater downside scenario where unemployment goes higher, to what extent you would ascribe a higher weighting to that scenario and the impact that would have on the overall reserve rate?

因此，跟進這一點，您能否為您賦予每個場景的權重提供更多顏色？也許如果我們確實進入了失業率上升的更大下行情景，你會在多大程度上賦予這種情景更高的權重以及對整體準備金率的影響？

Yes. We don't like to weigh the scenario specifically. We use a baseline scenario and look at the entire portfolio from a quantitative perspective, and then we use that downside case on certain portfolios and an overlay to the entire portfolio. So if you looked at the mix between our quantitative and qualitative is about 60-40, and that's been pretty consistent over the last couple of quarters and it's very meaningful to the total reserve.

是的。我們不喜歡具體權衡場景。我們使用基線情景並從定量的角度看待整個投資組合，然後我們在某些投資組合上使用這種不利情況並覆蓋整個投資組合。因此，如果您查看我們的定量和定性之間的混合約為 60-40，這在過去幾個季度中非常一致，這對總儲備非常有意義。

So again, I think we feel really confident that we've captured the downside risk, at least over the life of our portfolio, which is important to remember, that's a relatively short duration portfolio.

再說一次，我認為我們非常有信心，我們已經抓住了下行風險，至少在我們的投資組合的生命週期內，重要的是要記住，這是一個相對較短的投資組合。

That's helpful. And then separately, following up on the tangible capital questions. Your investment securities portfolio is classified as available for sale, which stands, in contrast to many of your peers that have a larger mix of held-to-maturity, it's been very clear that you view the OCI marks associated with higher rates is optical.

這很有幫助。然後分別跟進有形資本問題。您的投資證券投資組合被歸類為可供出售，與您的許多擁有更多持有至到期的同行相比，很明顯，您認為與更高利率相關的 OCI 標記是光學的。

But some investors have expressed concern that we could enter a credit cycle that would exacerbate the rate mark headwinds. Could you speak to that dynamic and whether there's anything that would lead you to consider using the held-to-maturity designation or perhaps thinking differently about tangible capital?

但一些投資者表示擔心，我們可能會進入一個會加劇利率逆風的信貸週期。您能否談談這種動態以及是否有什麼會導致您考慮使用持有至到期的名稱，或者可能對有形資本有不同的看法？

Yes, Bill, at this point, I don't anticipate us making any movements. You didn't know if you were inclined to move something to held-to-maturity. You probably wouldn't do it at this point in the cycle. So we just continue to be comfortable. I know a lot of the larger banks that don't have AOCI shielded from capital, do have a lot of HTM. I know a lot of our peers did not have much in HTM. Some of them moved, some in recently or over time after some of the losses had already occurred. But we continue to be comfortable there. And again, I believe it's an optic that won't cause any real issue for us.

是的，比爾，在這一點上，我預計我們不會有任何動作。您不知道您是否傾向於將某些東西移至持有至成熟。您可能不會在周期的這個階段這樣做。所以我們只是繼續感到舒適。我知道很多沒有 AOCI 免受資本保護的大型銀行確實有很多 HTM。我知道我們的很多同行在 HTM 方面都沒有太多經驗。他們中的一些人搬家了，一些人是最近搬家的，或者是在一些損失已經發生之後的一段時間內。但我們在那裡仍然很舒服。再說一次，我相信它不會給我們帶來任何真正的問題。

And our next question comes from the line of Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

I want to start. So when you look at noninterest-bearing deposits, which have seen a very material increase over the past 2 years, if you dig down to the account level, how much larger are the account balances today? And can you size for us the balance that could be at risk? Jim, I heard your commentary about treasurers carrying more of a safety net, but let's face it. That could easily go into 3-month T-bills, right? It doesn't need to stay at the bank. So could you size that for us?

我想開始。因此，當您查看過去 2 年大幅增加的無息存款時，如果深入到賬戶層面，今天的賬戶餘額有多大？您能否為我們確定可能存在風險的餘額？吉姆，我聽到了你關於財務主管更多的安全網的評論，但讓我們面對現實吧。這很容易進入 3 個月的國庫券，對嗎？它不需要留在銀行。那你能幫我們調整一下嗎？

Certainly, when we look at average balance per account, that is the main driver. That's the largest driver in terms of the higher deposits. That's not too surprising to me. I think it is consistent with the theme of corporate treasurers carrying higher safety net levels of cash. I do think there could be a tipping point where, once they moved some of the price-sensitive interest-bearing deposits, eventually, we will probably see a little bit of migration down of the noninterest-bearing deposits. So I think that day will come. But for now, they seem to be more price sensitive on the interest-bearing side.

當然，當我們查看每個賬戶的平均餘額時，這是主要驅動力。就較高的存款而言，這是最大的驅動因素。這對我來說並不奇怪。我認為這與企業財務主管持有更高安全網現金水平的主題是一致的。我確實認為可能會出現一個轉折點，一旦他們轉移了一些對價格敏感的有息存款，最終我們可能會看到無息存款的一點點向下遷移。所以我認為那一天會到來。但就目前而言，它們在計息方面似乎對價格更為敏感。

And I do think there's a limit to how far they'll take down their noninterest bearing. I think they are very comfortable with the levels of noninterest-bearing they have. And I'll remind you or maybe educate those out there that a lot of our customers have multiple legal entities, sometimes complex structures. It's not as easy as you might think for them to move cash around these different structures on hours' or days' notice. So they do like to keep their various entities well funded with noninterest-bearing DDA. And I think there's a limit to how far it will come down. But I do think it will come down at some point.

而且我確實認為他們會在多大程度上降低他們的無息負擔。我認為他們對他們所擁有的無息水平感到非常滿意。我會提醒你或者教育那些人，我們的很多客戶都有多個法律實體，有時是複雜的結構。讓他們在幾個小時或幾天的通知內將現金轉移到這些不同的結構中並不像您想像的那麼容易。因此，他們確實希望通過不計息的 DDA 為他們的各個實體提供充足的資金。而且我認為下降的幅度是有限的。但我確實認為它會在某個時候下降。

Jim and Steve, I might add too. This is Curt. Just to remind you around the complexity of our deposit book, I mean, we have a heavy concentration of commercial deposits and a heavy concentration of Wealth Management deposits, where we've got very close relationships with those customers. We know sort of what they're doing. They talk to us. There's frequent communication around deposit flow, treasury management, movement of funds, et cetera.

吉姆和史蒂夫，我也可以補充一下。這是柯特。提醒您我們存款簿的複雜性，我的意思是，我們高度集中商業存款和財富管理存款，我們與這些客戶建立了非常密切的關係。我們知道他們在做什麼。他們和我們說話。圍繞存款流動、資金管理、資金流動等方面存在頻繁的溝通。

And so it's not like a very granular mass market retail portfolio where you really don't have sort of line of sight in conversations occurring with those customers. So we're going to continue to do the right thing in terms of pricing and taking care of those relationships, but we are in frequent communication. We've got a good sense of sort of what people are planning to do and not do with deposits.

因此，它不像一個非常細化的大眾市場零售組合，在與這些客戶的對話中，你真的沒有某種視線。因此，我們將繼續在定價和處理這些關係方面做正確的事情，但我們經常溝通。我們對人們計劃對存款做什麼和不做什麼有很好的了解。

Yes. And I will add on. I mean, keep in mind that being a very strong treasury management bank, a lot of our DDAs are tied into ECAs. So customers are getting some degree value and incentive to keep their noninterest-bearing for that reason, too.

是的。我會補充。我的意思是，請記住，作為一家非常強大的資金管理銀行，我們的許多 DDA 都與 ECA 相關聯。因此，出於這個原因，客戶也獲得了一定程度的價值和激勵來保持他們的無息。

If we stay with that theme of having a good line of sight into what customers are thinking or they might eventually do, if we take that and apply it to whatever the fourth quarter NIM is, I know, Jim, you said there's a lot of variables, right? We know that. But what's your base case or where we go through 2023 from that 4Q NIM based on this line of sight that you guys have into your customer base?

如果我們保持對客戶的想法或他們最終可能會做的事情有很好的觀察這一主題，如果我們把它應用到第四季度的 NIM 上，我知道，吉姆，你說有很多變量，對吧？我們知道。但是你的基本情況是什麼，或者我們從第四季度 NIM 到 2023 年，基於你們對客戶群的這種看法？

Yes. Never, because of our commercial orientation and variability with cash balances that we've seen through the years as well as what we're doing with our securities book, which affects the mix of the balance sheet. We've always been and continue to be very hesitant to provide NIM percentage guidance, if that's what you're asking. So I would just maybe revert back to the guidance that we do expect deposits to level off sometime in early 2023, and things to stabilize from that standpoint.

是的。從來沒有，因為我們多年來看到的商業導向和現金餘額的可變性以及我們對證券賬簿所做的事情，這會影響資產負債表的組合。如果這就是您所要求的，我們一直並且將繼續非常猶豫是否提供 NIM 百分比指導。因此，我可能會回到我們確實預計存款將在 2023 年初某個時候趨於平穩的指導，並且從這個角度來看事情會趨於穩定。

Okay. Fair enough. And if I could squeeze one more in. I'm just trying to put together all the commentary around expenses. I know it's early to think about for giving us guidance for next year, but should we at least be thinking about a similar growth rate of expenses in 2023 versus 2022?

好的。很公平。如果我能再擠一個。我只是想把所有關於費用的評論放在一起。我知道現在考慮為我們提供明年的指導還為時過早，但我們是否應該至少考慮 2023 年與 2022 年相似的支出增長率？

We will certainly have some expense pressures, as I mentioned. So it's not a bad starting point. I mean that's a very rough answer. There's a lot of work to be done still, but we certainly will have some degree of expense growth next year.

正如我所提到的，我們肯定會面臨一些費用壓力。所以這不是一個糟糕的起點。我的意思是這是一個非常粗略的答案。還有很多工作要做，但明年我們肯定會有一定程度的支出增長。

And our next question comes from the line of Terry McEvoy with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Terry McEvoy 和 Stephens 的對話。

Last quarter, you added an EVP from a larger bank to run payments for Comerica. I'm wondering if you could just talk about the investments needed, kind of what the strategy is there and what the revenue opportunities are going forward?

上個季度，您添加了一家大型銀行的 EVP 來為 Comerica 運行付款。我想知道您是否可以只談談所需的投資，那裡的戰略是什麼以及未來的收入機會是什麼？

Terry, this is Peter. Yes, we're very excited about our investment in payments. I mean, we continue to believe that we have a real opportunity to be a leading bank in that space, particularly with commercial customers. But across our entire enterprise, we think there's a lot of opportunities in our treasury management business, what we do in card. Jim talked a little bit about what's going on in real-time payments. All of those are opportunities that Comerica has to be a leader. And there's a lot of ways you can be competitive. You don't have to be the big banks necessarily at this point to be successful.

特里，這是彼得。是的，我們對我們在支付方面的投資感到非常興奮。我的意思是，我們仍然相信我們有真正的機會成為該領域的領先銀行，尤其是在商業客戶方面。但在我們整個企業中，我們認為我們的資金管理業務有很多機會，我們在卡片方面所做的事情。 Jim 談了一點實時支付的情況。所有這些都是 Comerica 必須成為領導者的機會。有很多方法可以讓你保持競爭力。在這一點上，你不必一定是大銀行才能成功。

And we think we've got a real agile approach and have the ability to partner with lots of different ways to be successful. So it's a space that we're excited about. We did hire some talent there, both on the payment side and in our tech and ops side. We're also investing there as well. So we're very excited about what we see on that horizon.

我們認為我們擁有真正的敏捷方法，並且有能力與許多不同的方式合作以取得成功。所以這是一個讓我們興奮的空間。我們確實在那裡僱傭了一些人才，無論是在支付方面，還是在我們的技術和運營方面。我們也在那裡投資。所以我們對我們在那個地平線上看到的東西感到非常興奮。

Great. And then as a follow-up, I just want to make sure, have you maintained the relationships with all the dealers over the last 2 years? Or said another way, when inventory builds, do you expect to maintain that market share and kind of go back to where it was pre 2000?

偉大的。然後作為後續行動，我只是想確定一下，在過去的 2 年中，您是否與所有經銷商保持了關係？或者換一種說法，當庫存增加時，您是否希望保持市場份額並回到 2000 年前的水平？

Well, Terry, 2 questions there. Have we maintained the relationships? Absolutely, we have. So we're very active in the space, talk to customers a lot, have added customers. I continue to believe that we are going to be on the winning side of the M&A activity because we do focus on sort of the mega dealers.

好吧，特里，有 2 個問題。我們維持了關係嗎？當然，我們有。所以我們在這個領域非常活躍，與客戶進行了很多交流，增加了客戶。我仍然相信我們將在併購活動中獲勝，因為我們確實專注於大型經銷商。

Whether or not inventory levels return, to your question, when those return, I don't know. If they were to return to historical levels, then we would certainly benefit from it. But I think, as I said, you're going to continue to just sort of see a slight uptick in floor plan usage over the coming years, and we believe we'll be there to capitalize on that.

對於您的問題，庫存水平是否會恢復，我不知道什麼時候會恢復。如果他們要回到歷史水平，那麼我們肯定會從中受益。但我認為，正如我所說，您將繼續看到未來幾年平面圖使用量略有上升，我們相信我們將在那裡利用這一點。

And with no further questions in queue, I'll now turn it over for closing remarks to Curt Farmer, President, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

在沒有其他問題的情況下，我現在將把它交給總裁、董事長兼首席執行官 Curt Farmer 做閉幕詞。請繼續，先生。

Let me just say again that we are very proud of our results for the quarter, really a record quarter for us. I always want to thank our colleagues for all they do every day to take care of our customers and help us grow the company overall for our shareholders. So thank you, as always, for your interest in Comerica. I hope you have a very good day.

讓我再說一遍，我們對本季度的業績感到非常自豪，這對我們來說確實是創紀錄的季度。我總是要感謝我們的同事每天為照顧我們的客戶所做的一切，並幫助我們為股東整體發展公司。因此，一如既往地感謝您對 Comerica 的關注。我希望你有一個非常美好的一天。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與，您現在可以斷開連接了。