Comerica Inc (CMA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Comerica Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Kelly Gage, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

你好，謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到 Comerica 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係總監 Kelly Gage。請繼續。

Thanks, [Greg]. Good morning, and welcome to Comerica's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman and CEO, Curt Farmer; Chief Financial Officer, Jim Herzog; Chief Credit Officer, Melinda Chausse; and Executive Director of our Commercial Bank, Peter Sefzik.

謝謝，[格雷格]。早上好，歡迎來到 Comerica 的 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。參加此次電話會議的有我們的總裁、董事長兼首席執行官 Curt Farmer；首席財務官吉姆·赫爾佐格；首席信貸官，Melinda Chausse；我們商業銀行的執行董事 Peter Sefzik。

During this presentation, we will be referring to slides, which provide additional details. The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC's website as well as in the Investor Relations section of our website, comerica.com.

在此演示過程中，我們將參考提供更多詳細信息的幻燈片。演示幻燈片和我們的新聞稿可在 SEC 網站以及我們網站 comerica.com 的投資者關係部分獲取。

This conference call contains forward-looking statements. In that regard, you should be mindful of risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially from expectations. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。在這方面，您應該注意可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。前瞻性陳述僅在本演示文稿發布之日有效，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Also, this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures. And in that regard, I direct you to the reconciliation of these measures on our website, comerica.com. Please refer to the safe harbor statement in today's earnings release on Slide 2, which is incorporated into this call as well as our SEC filings for factors that can cause actual results to differ.

此外，本次電話會議將參考非 GAAP 措施。在這方面，我指示您在我們的網站 comerica.com 上協調這些措施。請參閱今天幻燈片 2 上的收益發布中的安全港聲明，該聲明包含在本次電話會議以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，了解可能導致實際結果不同的因素。

Now I'll turn the call over to Curt, who will begin on Slide 3.

現在我將把電話轉給 Curt，他將從幻燈片 3 開始。

Thank you, Kelly. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. In 2022, we generated another year of record earnings. And in many ways, it has been an inflection point for our company. Colleagues returned to the office reinvigorated, ready to support our customers and reimagine the way we work, and we delivered results.

謝謝你，凱利。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。 2022 年，我們又創下了創紀錄的收入。在許多方面，它一直是我們公司的轉折點。回到辦公室的同事們精神煥發，準備好支持我們的客戶並重新構想我們的工作方式，我們交付了成果。

Strong broad-based loan growth and management of loan and deposit pricing in a rising rate environment drove revenue to an all-time high of $3.5 billion. Prudent expense discipline generated an efficiency ratio of 56% and earnings per share increased to $8.47.

在利率上升的環境下，基礎廣泛的貸款強勁增長以及貸款和存款定價管理推動收入達到 35 億美元的歷史新高。謹慎的支出紀律產生了 56% 的效率比，每股收益增加到 8.47 美元。

Our strategic investments and balance sheet management helped produce superior returns and positioned us to maintain a high level of performance. Our refreshed logo and core values reinforce our commitment to being a leading bank for business, complemented by strong retail and wealth management solutions.

我們的戰略投資和資產負債表管理幫助產生了卓越的回報，並使我們能夠保持高水平的績效。我們煥然一新的徽標和核心價值觀強化了我們成為領先商業銀行的承諾，並輔之以強大的零售和財富管理解決方案。

Investments in more collaborative workspace, digital tools, enhanced products and streamline processes better enable our colleagues to put our customers first and create a more elevated experience. Striving to be a force for good in our communities, we have achieved approximately 85% of our 3-year goal to provide $5 billion in small business loans and deployed unique solutions such as our American business HQ, which provides collaborative space in the southern sector of Dallas.

投資於更具協作性的工作空間、數字工具、增強的產品和簡化的流程，使我們的同事能夠更好地把客戶放在第一位，並創造更高的體驗。努力成為我們社區的一股善良力量，我們已經實現了 3 年目標的大約 85%，即提供 50 億美元的小企業貸款，並部署了獨特的解決方案，例如我們的美國業務總部，它在南部地區提供協作空間達拉斯。

Publishing our inaugural TCFD report was an important milestone in our corporate responsibility journey and highlights our long-term commitment to sustainable business. The report outlines our climate strategy, including supporting our customers, integrating climate issues into our business and reduction of our environmental footprint.

發布我們的首份 TCFD 報告是我們企業責任歷程中的一個重要里程碑，凸顯了我們對可持續發展業務的長期承諾。該報告概述了我們的氣候戰略，包括支持我們的客戶、將氣候問題納入我們的業務以及減少我們的環境足跡。

As of year-end, green loans were $2.7 billion, a 60% increase over 2021, assisted by our renewable energy business, which has already exceeded expectations with almost $350 million in loans.

截至年底，在我們的可再生能源業務的幫助下，綠色貸款為 27 億美元，比 2021 年增長 60%，該業務已經超過預期，提供了近 3.5 億美元的貸款。

Our commitment to corporate responsibility was once again recognized, as we were included for our fourth consecutive year in Newsweek's 2023 listed as America's most responsible companies and also included as one of the greatest workplaces for diversity.

我們對企業責任的承諾再次得到認可，因為我們連續第四年被《新聞周刊》評為 2023 年美國最負責任的公司，並且還被列為最多元化的工作場所之一。

Volunteerism remains a priority, and I'm incredibly proud of the over 66,000 hours our colleagues committed to possibly impacting our communities.

志願服務仍然是重中之重，我為我們的同事承諾可能影響我們社區的 66,000 多個小時感到無比自豪。

Slide 4 provides further detail on our full year results. Relative to 2021, average loans increased to $1.4 billion or 3% to over $50 billion. Putting aside PPP activity, loans were up $4 billion or 8%, our highest organic growth rate in well over a decade, with contributions from most businesses.

幻燈片 4 提供了有關我們全年業績的更多詳細信息。與 2021 年相比，平均貸款增加到 14 億美元或 3%，超過 500 億美元。撇開 PPP 活動不談，貸款增加了 40 億美元或 8%，這是我們十多年來最高的有機增長率，大多數企業都做出了貢獻。

Following growth of almost $13 billion in 2021, driven by government stimulus, deposits decreased $2.2 billion in 2022 as customers utilized excess cash and we executed strategic pricing actions.

在政府刺激措施的推動下，存款在 2021 年增長了近 130 億美元之後，隨著客戶使用多餘現金以及我們執行戰略定價行動，存款在 2022 年減少了 22 億美元。

Revenue increased 19%, driven by higher interest rates and strong loan growth. Noninterest expenses reflected strategic investments, higher compensation in conjunction with favorable performance and modernization initiatives totaling $38 million.

在利率上升和貸款增長強勁的推動下，收入增長了 19%。非利息支出反映了戰略投資、更高的薪酬以及有利的績效和現代化計劃，總計 3800 萬美元。

Credit metrics were excellent, as driven by net charge-offs of only 3 basis points and profitable assets remain well below our historical norm.

受僅 3 個基點的淨沖銷和盈利資產仍遠低於我們的歷史標準的推動，信用指標非常出色。

In summary, a strong performance, with an ROE of 18.6% and an ROA of 1.32%. In the fourth quarter, we generated earnings of $350 million or $2.58 per share, as outlined Slide on 5.

綜上所述，表現強勁，ROE為18.6%，ROA為1.32%。在第四季度，我們產生了 3.5 億美元或每股 2.58 美元的收益，如第 5 頁的幻燈片所述。

Our financial results were excellent with all-time high revenues of over $1 billion, up 4% over the third quarter. Average loans grew almost $1.3 billion, which includes a $329 million decrease in mortgage banker where volume has been impacted by higher rates.

我們的財務業績非常出色，收入超過 10 億美元，比第三季度增長 4%，創歷史新高。平均貸款增長近 13 億美元，其中抵押貸款銀行家的貸款減少了 3.29 億美元，其數量受到更高利率的影響。

Average deposits declined $2.6 billion. However, balances stabilized at quarter end, and we began to see some positive trends. Credit quality was exceptional, with net recoveries and our percentage of criticized loans remains well below our historical average.

平均存款減少 26 億美元。然而，餘額在季度末穩定下來，我們開始看到一些積極的趨勢。信貸質量非常好，淨回收率和我們的不良貸款百分比仍遠低於我們的歷史平均水平。

We built reserves in conjunction with growth and a slightly more negative economic outlook. Expenses reflected investments in our business and support our revenue-generating activities. It was a record quarter and a record year. We are excited about the investments we are making and I look to support our colleagues and customers but also to sustain our strong performance as we move forward.

我們結合增長和略微更負面的經濟前景建立了儲備。費用反映了對我們業務的投資並支持我們的創收活動。這是創紀錄的季度和創紀錄的一年。我們對正在進行的投資感到興奮，我期待著支持我們的同事和客戶，同時也希望在我們前進的過程中保持我們的強勁表現。

And now I'll turn the call over to Jim, who will review the quarter in more detail.

現在我將電話轉給吉姆，他將更詳細地審查該季度。

Thanks, Curt, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 6. Broad-based loan growth continued and exceeded expectations with average balances increasing $1.3 billion or 2.5%. Commitments, which can be a good indicator of future loan growth, increased 5% with contributions for most businesses.

謝謝，柯特，大家早上好。轉到幻燈片 6。基礎廣泛的貸款增長繼續並超出預期，平均餘額增加 13 億美元或 2.5%。承諾可以作為未來貸款增長的良好指標，增加了 5%，對大多數企業都有貢獻。

Utilization remained stable at 45% and remained below historical averages, as commitment growth outperformed the increase in borrowings. Loans in our commercial real estate business increased nearly $880 million, as the pace of payoffs slowed, and we fund the construction projects already in the pipeline.

使用率穩定在 45% 並低於歷史平均水平，因為承諾增長超過借款增長。隨著還款速度放緩，我們商業房地產業務的貸款增加了近 8.8 億美元，我們為已經在進行中的建設項目提供資金。

Consistent with our selective strategy, nearly all of the growth was in Class A multifamily or industrial projects built by large developers that we know well, providing significant equity contributions typically averaging between 35% and 40% of costs.

與我們的選擇性戰略一致，幾乎所有增長都來自我們熟知的大型開發商建造的 A 類多戶住宅或工業項目，提供的重要股權貢獻通常平均佔成本的 35% 至 40%。

Credit quality in this portfolio continues to be excellent. Criticized loans remain extremely low, and we see no meaningful signs of negative migration. With our bankers that average 20 years of experience, a proven operational process, stringent underwriting and consistent credit monitoring, we believe our approach results in a conservative portfolio appropriately positioned to navigate the current environment.

該投資組合的信用質量仍然非常出色。受批評的貸款仍然極低，我們沒有看到任何有意義的負遷移跡象。我們的銀行家平均擁有 20 年的經驗、經過驗證的運營流程、嚴格的承銷和一致的信用監控，我們相信我們的方法會產生一個保守的投資組合，以適當地定位以駕馭當前環境。

National Dealer Services loans grew over $300 million as a result of new relationships and continued M&A activity by our customers. We continue to see a slow rebound in inventory levels and with consumer auto demand dampening and supply chain improving, the industry anticipates inventory levels to continue increasing throughout 2023.

由於我們的客戶建立新的關係和持續的併購活動，全國經銷商服務貸款增長了超過 3 億美元。我們繼續看到庫存水平緩慢反彈，隨著消費者汽車需求減弱和供應鏈改善，該行業預計庫存水平將在整個 2023 年繼續增加。

Corporate Banking, Wealth Management and Entertainment also contributed significantly to our strong loan growth. Elevated interest rates, lack of housing inventory and normal seasonality continued to pressure mortgage banker as average loans declined $329 million for the quarter.

企業銀行業務、財富管理和娛樂業務也為我們強勁的貸款增長做出了重大貢獻。由於本季度平均貸款下降 3.29 億美元，利率升高、住房庫存不足和正常的季節性繼續給抵押貸款銀行家帶來壓力。

MBA forecast showed volumes remaining at depressed levels through the first quarter before potentially increasing. Loan yields increased 81 basis points to 5.45%, primarily reflecting the benefit from higher rates.

MBA 預測顯示，在可能增加之前，第一季度的交易量仍處於低迷水平。貸款收益率上升 81 個基點至 5.45%，主要反映了較高利率帶來的好處。

On Slide 7, average deposits declined as customers continue to utilize funds in their business and seek higher yield. However, balances ended the quarter better than we expected as we adjusted pricing in conjunction with aggressive Fed rate hikes.

在幻燈片 7 中，隨著客戶繼續在其業務中使用資金並尋求更高的收益，平均存款有所下降。然而，由於我們結合美聯儲積極加息調整定價，本季度末的餘額好於我們的預期。

The strategy work as period-end interest-bearing deposits increased to $31.5 billion. While we did see a modest uptick in noninterest-bearing deposits late in the year, we attributed largely to traditional seasonality with elevated business activities such as customers preparing to make tax payments and distributions in the first quarter.

作為期末計息存款的策略工作增至315億美元。雖然我們確實看到今年年底的無息存款略有上升，但我們主要將其歸因於傳統的季節性，業務活動增加，例如客戶準備在第一季度納稅和分配。

We continue to believe future FOMC monetary actions are key to the timing of deposit stabilization. Our overall mix remained favorable with 56% of average noninterest-bearing deposits largely in operational accounts reflecting our commercial orientation.

我們仍然認為，未來的 FOMC 貨幣政策行動是穩定存款時機的關鍵。我們的整體組合仍然有利，56% 的平均無息存款主要在運營賬戶中，反映了我們的商業定位。

Our liquidity position was strong with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 75% below our historical average. Beyond deposits, we have significant capacity to support loan growth, including repayments in our securities portfolio and efficient borrowing channels such as broker deposits and Federal Home Loan bank lines.

我們的流動資金狀況良好，貸存比低於歷史平均水平 75%。除了存款之外，我們還有能力支持貸款增長，包括我們證券投資組合的還款和高效的借貸渠道，例如經紀人存款和聯邦住房貸款銀行額度。

Interest-bearing deposit costs averaged 97 basis points and reflected the pricing actions taken in the fourth quarter. Our dynamic pricing strategy will continue to balance our funding needs with customers' objectives and the rate environment.

計息存款成本平均為 97 個基點，反映了第四季度採取的定價行動。我們的動態定價策略將繼續平衡我們的資金需求與客戶的目標和利率環境。

Average balances in our securities portfolio, on Slide 8, declined $1.4 billion, primarily reflecting the full-quarter effect of the third quarter's mark-to-market adjustments. In addition, we are not reinvesting paydowns and are instead repurposing those funds for loan growth.

在幻燈片 8 中，我們證券投資組合的平均餘額下降了 14 億美元，這主要反映了第三季度按市價調整的整個季度影響。此外，我們不會將分期付款進行再投資，而是將這些資金重新用於貸款增長。

Relatively stable long-term rates resulted in a positive mark-to-market adjustment of $73 million at period end. Our total net unrealized pretax loss of $3.0 billion affects our book value but on our regulatory capital ratios.

相對穩定的長期利率導致期末按市值計價調整為 7300 萬美元。我們 30 億美元的未實現稅前淨虧損總額影響了我們的賬面價值，但也影響了我們的監管資本比率。

While we maintain the portfolio as available for sale, mostly forward-looking purposes, we typically hold these securities to maturity, in which case the unrealized losses should not impact income.

雖然我們維持投資組合可供出售，主要是出於前瞻性目的，但我們通常持有這些證券至到期日，在這種情況下，未實現的損失不應影響收入。

Despite a reduction in the overall portfolio size, securities income remained relatively stable due to higher-yielding MBS purchases in the third quarter, replacing the paydown of lower-yielding securities.

儘管整體投資組合規模有所縮減，但由於第三季度購買了收益率較高的 MBS，取代了收益率較低的證券的償還，證券收入仍保持相對穩定。

Turning to Slide 9. Net interest income increased $35 million to a record $742 million and the net interest margin increased 24 basis points. The benefit from higher rates looked at loan income of $102 million and added 52 basis points to the margin.

轉到幻燈片 9。淨利息收入增加 3500 萬美元，達到創紀錄的 7.42 億美元，淨息差增加 24 個基點。較高利率帶來的好處是貸款收入為 1.02 億美元，利潤率增加了 52 個基點。

Loan growth added $19 million and 3 basis points. Other portfolio dynamics added $1 [million] or 1 basis point. And while the market remains competitive, we have successfully maintained our pricing discipline. As I mentioned, securities income was relatively stable.

貸款增長增加了 1900 萬美元和 3 個基點。其他投資組合動態增加了 1 [百萬] 美元或 1 個基點。在市場競爭依然激烈的同時，我們成功地保持了定價紀律。正如我提到的，證券收入相對穩定。

As far as deposits of the Fed, higher rates, partly offset by lower balances, added $5 million and 11 basis points to the margin. Adjustments to deposit pricing reduced income by $63 million, while lower balances added 1 basis point. Higher rates on our floating rate wholesale debt, in addition to our August subordinated debt offering had a $29 million impact. Altogether, the rise in rates provided a net benefit of $53 million to net interest income.

就美聯儲的存款而言，較高的利率（部分被較低的餘額所抵消）使利潤率增加了 500 萬美元和 11 個基點。存款定價調整使收入減少了 6300 萬美元，而較低的餘額增加了 1 個基點。除了我們 8 月份發行的次級債券之外，我們浮動利率批發債券的利率上升產生了 2900 萬美元的影響。總之，利率上升為淨利息收入帶來了 5300 萬美元的淨收益。

Credit quality remained excellent, as outlined on Slide 10, with $4 million of net recoveries, along with a reduction in our already low criticized and nonaccrual loans. In fact, inflows to nonaccrual loans were only $16 million, one of the lowest levels in recent history.

如幻燈片 10 所述，信貸質量仍然非常好，淨回收額為 400 萬美元，我們本已很低的批評貸款和非應計貸款也有所減少。事實上，流入非應計貸款的資金僅為 1600 萬美元，是近期歷史上最低的水平之一。

Loan growth and the weakening economic forecast drove the provision expense up to $33 million, and the allowance for credit losses increased modestly to 1.24%. With our consistent disciplined approach as well as our relationship model and diverse customer base, we believe we are well positioned to manage through a recessionary environment.

貸款增長和疲軟的經濟預測將撥備費用推高至 3300 萬美元，信貸損失撥備小幅增加至 1.24%。憑藉我們一貫的紀律方法以及我們的關係模型和多樣化的客戶群，我們相信我們有能力度過衰退的環境。

Noninterest income, on Slide 11, was robust at $278 million and was impacted by volatility in the rate environment and equity markets. Deferred comp, which is offset in expenses, increased $9 million, generating a $6 million return for the quarter.

幻燈片 11 上的非利息收入強勁，為 2.78 億美元，並受到利率環境和股票市場波動的影響。被費用抵消的遞延補償增加了 900 萬美元，本季度產生了 600 萬美元的回報。

Higher rates earned on funds associated with settling our internal derivative portfolio drove risk management income of $8 million. The quarterly variance in the Visa Class B total return swap, along with the increase in card and brokerage, all contributed positively to the quarter. As expected, customer derivative volumes slowed from recent strong activity, and there was a $1 million favorable CVA adjustment, which is a $4 million reduction from the third quarter.

與結算我們的內部衍生產品組合相關的資金所賺取的更高利率推動了 800 萬美元的風險管理收入。 Visa B 類總回報互換的季度差異，以及信用卡和經紀業務的增加，都對本季度做出了積極貢獻。正如預期的那樣，客戶衍生品交易量因最近的強勁活動而放緩，並且有 100 萬美元的有利 CVA 調整，比第三季度減少了 400 萬美元。

Deposit service charges reflected positive momentum in treasury management, but they were more than offset by higher earnings credit and lower fees associated with deposit balances.

存款服務費反映了資金管理的積極勢頭，但它們被更高的收益信貸和更低的與存款餘額相關的費用所抵消。

Fiduciary income was negatively impacted by fees related to equity returns and BOLI had a seasonal decline of $2 million. Despite this quarter's fluctuations, we have a solid core product set delivering a strong level of noncapital consuming fee income with promising growth potential.

受託收入受到與股票回報相關的費用的負面影響，BOLI 季節性下降 200 萬美元。儘管本季度出現波動，但我們擁有穩固的核心產品集，可提供高水平的非資本消費費用收入，並具有良好的增長潛力。

Turning to expenses on Slide 12. We've made significant progress towards our modernization objectives consolidating banking centers, enhancing corporate facilities and achieving an important milestone in migrating our technology.

轉向幻燈片 12 上的費用。我們在實現現代化目標方面取得了重大進展，包括整合銀行中心、增強公司設施以及實現技術遷移的重要里程碑。

In all, we incurred $18 million in expenses for the quarter, which slowed the estimate we previously provided due to better-than-expected severance and asset write-downs. Excluding modernization and deferred compensation, which is fully offset, noninterest expenses increased $19 million. In support of our growth initiatives, we successfully attracted talent and continue to invest in products, further elevating our customer experience.

總的來說，我們在本季度產生了 1800 萬美元的費用，由於好於預期的遣散費和資產減記，這放慢了我們之前提供的估計。不包括完全抵消的現代化和遞延補償，非利息支出增加了 1900 萬美元。為了支持我們的增長計劃，我們成功地吸引了人才並繼續投資於產品，進一步提升了我們的客戶體驗。

Increases in T&E, legal and marketing were correlated with the strong business activity in the fourth quarter and driving future revenue with initiatives such as retail reimagined.

T&E、法律和營銷的增長與第四季度強勁的業務活動相關，並通過重新構想零售等舉措推動未來收入。

Foundational investments in our infrastructure enhanced controls and compliance in this evolving landscape as well as making us more nimble with regards to technology development. We have some inflationary pressures, including salaries for new staff and recent merit increases and saw seasonal increases in occupancy, marketing and other related expenses.

對我們基礎設施的基礎投資增強了在這個不斷變化的環境中的控制和合規性，並使我們在技術開發方面更加靈活。我們面臨一些通貨膨脹壓力，包括新員工的工資和最近的加薪，以及入住率、營銷和其他相關費用的季節性增長。

Overall, we successfully balanced investments and other pressures with accelerated revenue growth, resulting in a solid efficiency ratio of 53%.

總體而言，我們成功地平衡了投資和其他壓力以及收入的加速增長，實現了 53% 的穩定效率比。

Slide 13 provides details on capital management. With record earnings, our strong capital generation outpaced capital needed for loan growth, increasing our CET1 ratio to an estimated 10.02%. As always, our priority is to use our capital to support our customers and drive growth, while providing an attractive return to our shareholders.

幻燈片 13 提供了有關資本管理的詳細信息。憑藉創紀錄的收益，我們強勁的資本創造超過了貸款增長所需的資本，將我們的 CET1 比率提高到估計的 10.02%。一如既往，我們的首要任務是利用我們的資本支持我們的客戶並推動增長，同時為我們的股東提供有吸引力的回報。

We closely monitor loan growth, profitability and credit trends as we balance maintaining our CET1 target of approximately 10% with our dividend and share repurchase strategy.

我們密切關注貸款增長、盈利能力和信貸趨勢，因為我們在維持大約 10% 的 CET1 目標與我們的股息和股票回購策略之間取得平衡。

Our common equity increased 2%, benefiting from strong profitability and the impact from OCI losses was minor. Excluding the AOCI losses, our common equity per share increased over 3%. Also, note that our tangible common equity ratio was 4.89%. However, excluding AOCI, it increased to 9.30%.

我們的普通股權益增長了 2%，這得益於強勁的盈利能力以及 OCI 損失的影響較小。排除 AOCI 損失，我們的每股普通股權益增長超過 3%。另請注意，我們的有形普通股權益比率為 4.89%。但是，不包括 AOCI，它增加到 9.30%。

Our outlook for 2023 is on Slide 14 and assumes no significant change in the economic environment. We expect loan momentum to continue and produce another year of strong growth across all of our business lines, resulting in average loans increasing 7% to 8%.

我們對 2023 年的展望在幻燈片 14 中，並假設經濟環境沒有重大變化。我們預計貸款勢頭將持續下去，並在我們所有業務領域實現又一年的強勁增長，從而使平均貸款增長 7% 至 8%。

The pace of growth should be relatively consistent at 1% to 2% each quarter. We expect average deposits to decline 7% to 8% as customers continue deploying operational deposits or seek higher-yielding options.

增長速度應該相對穩定，每季度增長 1% 至 2%。我們預計隨著客戶繼續部署業務存款或尋求更高收益的選擇，平均存款將下降 7% 至 8%。

We anticipate a seasonal decline in the first quarter followed by a partial rebound and then stabilization as we move through the year. Comparing fourth quarter year-over-year, deposits are projected to be down only 1% to 2%.

我們預計第一季度會出現季節性下降，隨後會出現部分反彈，然後在全年中趨於穩定。與去年第四季度相比，存款預計僅下降 1% 至 2%。

As previously mentioned, we continue to believe the timing and scale of deposit activity will be influenced by FOMC monetary policy and economic activity. With this uncertainty, forecasting deposit levels is very challenging.

如前所述，我們仍然相信存款活動的時間和規模將受到 FOMC 貨幣政策和經濟活動的影響。由於這種不確定性，預測存款水平非常具有挑戰性。

As we look at mix, we project interest-bearing growth driven by strategic pricing actions. By year-end, we expect to be closer to our historical 50-50 deposit mix, still very favorable. As far as pricing, we expect the first quarter to reflect the full quarter impact from rate actions we took in the fourth quarter. And after that, the adjustment should be more modest as we continue to focus on customer relationships, competitive dynamics and our funding needs.

當我們審視組合時，我們預測由戰略定價行動驅動的生息增長。到年底，我們預計將接近我們歷史上 50-50 的存款組合，仍然非常有利。就定價而言，我們預計第一季度將反映我們在第四季度採取的利率行動對整個季度的影響。在那之後，隨著我們繼續關注客戶關係、競爭動態和我們的資金需求，調整應該會更加溫和。

We project strong net interest income, up 17% to 20% over our record 2022 level, which reflects the full year benefit from higher rates, and we are assuming rates follow the 12/31 forward curve.

我們預計淨利息收入將比我們創紀錄的 2022 年水平高 17% 至 20%，這反映了全年受益於較高的利率，我們假設利率遵循 12/31 遠期曲線。

First quarter will be impacted by 2 fewer days, seasonal deposit outflows and continued deposit pricing actions. We expect net interest income to increase through the year, as we continue to benefit from rising rates and loan growth in conjunction with expanding relationships and acquiring new customers.

第一季度將受到減少 2 天、季節性存款外流和持續的存款定價行動的影響。我們預計全年淨利息收入將增加，因為我們繼續受益於利率上升和貸款增長以及擴大關係和獲得新客戶。

Credit quality has been excellent, and we expect it to remain strong. Therefore, we forecast net charge-offs at the lower end of our normal range of 20 to 40 basis points. Assuming the economy performs in line with our expectations, we expect a gradual normalization in credit metrics and our reserve level.

信用質量一直很好，我們預計它會保持強勁。因此，我們預測淨註銷將處於正常範圍 20 至 40 個基點的下限。假設經濟表現符合我們的預期，我們預計信貸指標和準備金水平將逐步正常化。

We expect noninterest income to grow 5%. Customer-related income is projected to increase, particularly in card due to our payment strategy and fiduciary income, which benefits from investments in our wealth management platform. Also, we forecast an increase in risk management income related to our internal hedging position.

我們預計非利息收入將增長 5%。由於我們的支付策略和受託收入，客戶相關收入預計會增加，特別是在卡方面，這得益於我們對財富管理平台的投資。此外，我們預測與內部對沖頭寸相關的風險管理收入將增加。

Note, this income will vary over time as rates move. Deferred comp was an $18 million grade in 2022, which we assume will not repeat. On the other hand, elevated volumes of customer derivatives that we saw in 2022 are not expected to continue. However, we believe they have stabilized at a strong level and are poised to grow over time.

請注意，隨著利率的變化，此收入會隨時間變化。 2022 年遞延薪酬為 1800 萬美元，我們認為不會重複。另一方面，我們在 2022 年看到的客戶衍生品交易量預計不會繼續增加。然而，我們相信它們已經穩定在一個強勁的水平，並有望隨著時間的推移而增長。

A reduction in our deposit service charges is expected due to an increase in commercial account ECA rates and adjustments to our retail NSF fees. We also assume BOLI returns to a historical run rate of approximately $9 million to $10 million a quarter and the $7 million CVA benefit does not repeat.

由於商業賬戶 ECA 費率的增加和我們零售 NSF 費用的調整，我們的存款服務費預計會減少。我們還假設 BOLI 恢復到每季度約 900 萬至 1000 萬美元的歷史運行率，並且 700 萬美元的 CVA 收益不會重複。

First quarter is expected to be impacted by seasonality and syndication fees, and we assume deferred comp of $6 million in the fourth quarter will not repeat.

第一季度預計將受到季節性和聯合費用的影響，我們假設第四季度 600 萬美元的遞延補償不會重複。

The second half of the year is expected to be stronger than the first as loan syndication activity, card fees, derivatives and other products trend up. Our 2023 expenses are expected to grow 7% or 4% on an adjusted basis, excluding the $64 million increase in pension, a $19 million reduction in modernization charges and assuming the $18 million in deferred comp benefit does not repeat.

由於銀團貸款活動、卡費、衍生品和其他產品呈上升趨勢，預計下半年將強於上半年。我們的 2023 年支出預計在調整後增長 7% 或 4%，其中不包括 6400 萬美元的養老金增加、1900 萬美元的現代化費用減少以及假設 1800 萬美元的遞延補償福利不會重複。

Drivers of the 4% include the annual merit increase and other inflationary pressures as well as additional growth in costs tied to revenue-generating activity such as higher staff levels and outside processing related to card.

4% 的驅動因素包括年度績效增長和其他通脹壓力，以及與創收活動相關的成本額外增長，例如更高的員工水平和與卡相關的外部處理。

Further, we estimate a $15 million increase in FDIC expenses and higher software costs. We expect these headwinds to be partly offset by resetting performance comp to normal levels.

此外，我們估計 FDIC 支出和軟件成本增加 1500 萬美元。我們預計這些逆風將通過將績效補償重置為正常水平來部分抵消。

First quarter expenses are expected to be lower with the decline in performance comp, seasonal declines in advertising and staff insurance as well as other items that are expected to decline from an elevated fourth quarter level, such as modernization expenses, deferred comp and legal costs.

由於業績補償下降、廣告和員工保險的季節性下降以及預計將從第四季度高水平下降的其他項目，如現代化費用、遞延補償和法律成本，第一季度費用預計會降低。

Annual stock compensation is expected to partly offset these reductions. Remaining modernization expenses are expected to be weighted more towards the second half of '23. We remain committed to prudent expense management, including investments we are making to increase revenue and enhance efficiency evidenced by an efficiency ratio forecasted below 55% for 2023.

年度股票補償預計將部分抵消這些減少。預計剩餘的現代化費用將更多地集中在 23 年下半年。我們仍然致力於審慎的費用管理，包括我們為增加收入和提高效率而進行的投資，預計 2023 年的效率比率將低於 55%。

In summary, we drove robust loan growth and fee generation in 2022. In addition, we benefited from higher rates while executing our hedging strategy and managed deposits, credit and expenses. We generated record revenue and EPS, reduced our efficiency ratio and delivered strong returns. Our fourth quarter has positioned us well for a strong 2023.

總之，我們在 2022 年推動了強勁的貸款增長和費用產生。此外，我們在執行對沖策略和管理存款、信貸和費用的同時受益於更高的利率。我們創造了創紀錄的收入和每股收益，降低了我們的效率比並帶來了可觀的回報。我們的第四季度為我們 2023 年的強勁發展做好了準備。

Now I'll turn the call back to Curt.

現在我會把電話轉回 Curt。

Thank you, Jim. By leveraging our more predictable earnings stream, we are better able to strategically invest in our business, as Slide 15 illustrates our road map. Aligned with our long-term strategy, these initiatives enhance our ability to continue to exceed our customers' expectations.

謝謝你，吉姆。通過利用我們更可預測的收益流，我們能夠更好地對我們的業務進行戰略投資，如幻燈片 15 所示我們的路線圖。這些舉措與我們的長期戰略保持一致，增強了我們繼續超越客戶期望的能力。

Modernizing our operations and further securing our foundation creates a stable but agile platform enabling us to better address evolving needs. Enhancing our capabilities, based on the voice of our customers, allows us to invest efficiently driving fee income, retention and new acquisition selectively, exporting our business model to high-growth markets, capitalizing on our expertise and relationships to broaden our reach, as we strive to grow at a faster pace than the economy.

使我們的運營現代化並進一步鞏固我們的基礎創造了一個穩定而靈活的平台，使我們能夠更好地滿足不斷變化的需求。根據客戶的聲音增強我們的能力，使我們能夠有效地投資，有選擇地推動費用收入、保留和新收購，將我們的商業模式輸出到高增長市場，利用我們的專業知識和關係來擴大我們的影響力，因為我們努力以比經濟更快的速度增長。

The calibration of our products, markets and delivery is critical to sustaining our legacy, while achieving our vision for the future.

我們的產品、市場和交付的校準對於維持我們的傳統以及實現我們的未來願景至關重要。

Slide 16 highlights our compelling story. Our business demonstrated the ability to deliver broad-based revenue growth in our pipeline, commitments and product innovation to create further momentum. As a leading bank for business, complemented by strong retail and wealth management capabilities, we feel our size, business mix and market strategy create a unique relationship banking model.

幻燈片 16 突出了我們引人入勝的故事。我們的業務展示了在我們的管道、承諾和產品創新中實現廣泛收入增長的能力，以創造進一步的動力。作為一家領先的商業銀行，輔以強大的零售和財富管理能力，我們認為我們的規模、業務組合和市場戰略創造了一種獨特的關係銀行業務模式。

Tenure of our colleagues and customer relationships evidence the success of that strategy. Credit expertise allows us to not only minimize risk, but also serves as the customer acquisition tool, demonstrating our understanding of their business and needs.

我們同事的任期和客戶關係證明了該戰略的成功。信用專業知識不僅使我們能夠最大限度地降低風險，而且還可以作為客戶獲取工具，展示我們對他們的業務和需求的理解。

Looking into 2023, we expect another year of exceptional results. While we continue to make critical investments which project positive operating leverage, maintaining strong profitability metrics. We fill our unique position in growth markets with a proven reputation for credit, expense and interest rate management combined to create a powerful investment thesis for our shareholders.

展望 2023 年，我們期待再創佳績。在我們繼續進行關鍵投資的同時，這些投資預計將產生積極的運營槓桿，同時保持強勁的盈利指標。我們憑藉在信貸、費用和利率管理方面久經考驗的聲譽，為我們的股東創造了強有力的投資理念，從而填補了我們在成長型市場中的獨特地位。

Thank you for your time. And now we'd be happy to take some questions.

感謝您的時間。現在我們很樂意回答一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

I was just wondering for 2023, can you help us with how you your funding mix to evolve through the year? And as you mentioned, it is difficult to forecast deposit growth given the Fed actions in the overall environment. So if you can help us with any updated thoughts on where you might be okay with your loan-to-deposit ratio going and how much flexibility you have there?

我只是想知道 2023 年，您能幫助我們了解您的資金組合如何在這一年中發展嗎？正如你提到的，鑑於美聯儲在整體環境中的行動，很難預測存款增長。因此，如果您能幫助我們提供任何最新的想法，了解您在哪些方面可以接受您的貸存比，以及您在那裡有多大的靈活性？

It's Jim. I'll answer that question. Starting with the funding mix, it's really important to us to stay diversified. So we're using a variety of efficient funding mechanisms while keeping some dry powder for future loan growth. And so when we look at what we plan to do in 2023. First and foremost, we are funding much of the loan growth and to the extent we have deposit runoff, we're funding that with securities that we are allowing to mature.

是吉姆。我會回答那個問題。從資金組合開始，保持多元化對我們來說非常重要。因此，我們正在使用各種有效的融資機制，同時為未來的貸款增長保留一些乾粉。因此，當我們審視 2023 年的計劃時。首先，也是最重要的，我們正在為大部分貸款增長提供資金，並且在存款流失的範圍內，我們正在用我們允許到期的證券為其提供資金。

That includes both MBS securities that mature at a somewhat predictable rate as well as some lumpy treasury maturities that we have. Beyond that, we are getting a little bit more competitive with our deposit pricing, both in terms of retaining deposits and attracting deposits that might not be currently on our balance sheet. And then beyond that, we do have efficient lines of the FHLB, which we plan on using to some extent. We do plan on adding some broker deposits, not a lot, but we will add a modest amount likely at some point during the year.

這包括以某種可預測的速度到期的 MBS 證券以及我們擁有的一些不穩定的國債到期日。除此之外，我們的存款定價在保留存款和吸引目前可能不在我們資產負債表上的存款方面變得更具競爭力。除此之外，我們確實擁有 FHLB 的高效線路，我們計劃在某種程度上使用它們。我們確實計劃增加一些經紀人存款，但不是很多，但我們可能會在年內的某個時候增加少量。

And so we will use a variety of sources. We will keep a lot of dry powder on the sidelines to make sure that we can fund ourselves very efficiently going forward. In terms of loan-to-deposit ratio, it is currently well below historical levels at 75%. We expect it to continue to be below historical levels as we look out in the future, certainly for 2023.

因此，我們將使用各種來源。我們將在場外保留大量幹火藥，以確保我們能夠非常有效地為自己提供資金。就貸存比率而言，目前遠低於75%的歷史水平。我們預計它會繼續低於歷史水平，因為我們展望未來，當然是 2023 年。

So no concerns from that standpoint. And we feel really solid in terms of our ability to fund this loan growth and fund any deposits that might run off.

因此，從這個角度來看，無需擔心。就我們為這種貸款增長提供資金和為可能流失的任何存款提供資金的能力而言，我們感到非常穩固。

That's really helpful. So for the securities paydowns, I know you mentioned it's about $1 billion -- a little bit over $1 billion for next quarter. Can you help us with how that evolves through the year? Are there any other bond maturities coming through in the second half?

這真的很有幫助。所以對於證券支付，我知道你提到它大約是 10 億美元——下個季度略高於 10 億美元。你能幫助我們了解這一年的發展情況嗎？下半年還有其他債券到期嗎？

Yes, we would expect the MBS securities to continue to mature at a rate of about $415 million a quarter. We do have the $700 million of treasuries that mature in the first quarter. And then we have another $300 million in the second quarter of this year.

是的，我們預計 MBS 證券將繼續以每季度約 4.15 億美元的速度到期。我們確實擁有第一季度到期的 7 億美元國債。今年第二季度我們還有 3 億美元。

And then we have a very small tranche, I believe, in December, that won't be a big factor for 2023. But we should get somewhat of a boost from those maturing securities as they occur through the year.

然後我們有一個非常小的部分，我相信，在 12 月，這不會成為 2023 年的一個大因素。但是我們應該從這些全年發生的到期證券中得到一些提振。

(Operator Instructions) Next, we'll go to the line of Steven Alexopoulos from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）接下來，我們將轉到 JPMorgan 的 Steven Alexopoulos 的線路。

I want to start, so the guidance applies to NIM expansion on [TARP] again for the first quarter, and we know it's a very fluid situation. But from a big picture view, as we sit here today, how do you guys see the NIM trending beyond the first quarter?

我想開始，所以第一季度的指導再次適用於 [TARP] 的 NIM 擴展，我們知道這是一個非常不穩定的情況。但從大局來看，當我們今天坐在這裡時，你們如何看待 NIM 在第一季度之後的趨勢？

Steve, it's Jim. As you know, we typically don't like to focus on NIM just because of our business model, and it does tend to be a little bit more lumpy than other banks. We like to focus on net interest income. But to answer your question, we do expect NIM to be relatively stable in the range that it was in the fourth quarter. It may tick up by a few bps as we see securities run off with those lower-yielding securities. But I think where we're at right now in the fourth quarter is kind of the area that we will likely hover in.

史蒂夫，是吉姆。如您所知，我們通常不喜歡僅僅因為我們的商業模式而專注於 NIM，而且它確實比其他銀行更不穩定。我們喜歡關注淨利息收入。但要回答你的問題，我們確實希望 NIM 在第四季度的範圍內相對穩定。它可能會上升幾個基點，因為我們看到證券與那些低收益證券一起流失。但我認為我們目前在第四季度所處的位置是我們可能會徘徊的領域。

Okay. That's helpful. And Jim, what's the deposit beta you're assuming in this guidance by year-end '23?

好的。這很有幫助。吉姆，你在 23 年底之前在本指南中假設的存款貝塔值是多少？

Yes, deposit beta is moving as well as, of course, the overall rate environment. We were about a 26% beta in the fourth quarter. Rates did continue to move in the fourth quarter. So I would say we were approaching 30% beta by the time you got to the month of December. We do think in the first quarter, we will start moving and eventually reach about a 35% beta.

是的，存款貝塔在變化，當然，整體利率環境也在變化。我們在第四季度的貝塔係數約為 26%。第四季度利率確實繼續上漲。所以我想說，到 12 月份時，我們的測試版接近 30%。我們確實認為在第一季度，我們將開始行動並最終達到約 35% 的貝塔值。

And for the full quarter average in the first quarter, I do think it will be in that low to mid-30s, pushing up to 35%. And then as we move through the second quarter, I do have us moving into the upper 30s, that does include going after some higher-priced deposits to make sure that we can fund our loan growth in an efficient way.

對於第一季度的整個季度平均水平，我確實認為它會在 30 多歲左右，最高可達 35%。然後，隨著我們進入第二季度，我確實讓我們進入了 30 多歲，這確實包括追逐一些價格較高的存款，以確保我們能夠以有效的方式為我們的貸款增長提供資金。

And then once we get through the second quarter, as we hover in that upper 30s, if we had some broker deposits, it could push towards about 40. I would then expect it to kind of hold there, and that's about the time that rates peak also. So that's kind of the trajectory we're assuming and that I see for deposit betas.

然後一旦我們度過第二季度，當我們徘徊在 30 多歲時，如果我們有一些經紀人存款，它可能會升至 40 左右。然後我預計它會保持在那裡，那是利率的時間峰也。所以這就是我們假設的軌跡，也是我看到的存款貝塔。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then maybe for my final question. Just diving a bit deeper into the decline in noninterest bearing, you guys are citing customers investing in their business. But I'm curious how much is your customers chasing higher rate alternatives?

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許是我的最後一個問題。只是更深入地研究無息負擔的下降，你們引用客戶投資他們的業務。但我很好奇您的客戶在多大程度上追求更高價格的替代品？

And along those lines, up until this quarter, what we had heard from many of the regional banks was that treasuries were the key competitor. But what's coming up this quarter is that the regional banks themselves are really stepping up competition for deposits. So how much are your customers chasing? And can you talk about the competitive environment right now, particularly from peer regionals?

沿著這些思路，直到本季度，我們從許多地區性銀行那裡聽到的是，國債是主要的競爭對手。但本季度即將發生的事情是，地區性銀行本身確實在加強對存款的競爭。那麼您的客戶追逐多少？你能談談現在的競爭環境，尤其是來自同行區域的競爭環境嗎？

Yes. I mean I -- if I understood the question, you're dipping a little bit out in terms of volume there. But our customers, when they do look at the higher-yielding options, they are looking at off-balance sheet money market funds. And we are increasingly becoming competitive to make sure we can compete from that standpoint.

是的。我的意思是我 - 如果我理解這個問題，那麼你在數量方面有所下降。但是我們的客戶，當他們考慮更高收益的選擇時，他們正在考慮資產負債表外的貨幣市場基金。我們正變得越來越有競爭力，以確保我們能夠從這個角度進行競爭。

And we think that's an efficient way to go. It's certainly better than wholesale borrowings for us. In terms of where the leakage is occurring, we do some surge deposits still in the DDA. And as we talk to customers and look at what's happening in the flows, it does seem like probably 40% of them -- to the extent, 40% of the deposits that have gotten off the balance sheet are due to rate and then the remainder is kind of due to funding CapEx, operations and maybe a variety of other things.

我們認為這是一種有效的方式。對我們來說，這肯定比批發借款要好。就洩漏發生的位置而言，我們仍在 DDA 中進行了一些浪湧沉積。當我們與客戶交談並查看流量中發生的情況時，似乎確實有 40%——在某種程度上，已經從資產負債表中刪除的存款中有 40% 是由於利率，然後是其餘部分某種程度上是由於為資本支出、運營和其他各種因素提供資金。

So certainly a mixture. We do think, to the extent customers are using deposits to fund their operations, we view that as a very positive sign. It is consistent with the loan story. When you look at the strong loan growth that we've seen and we forecasted. But we are increasingly becoming competitive with money market funds where we feel we need to.

所以肯定是混合物。我們確實認為，就客戶使用存款為其運營提供資金而言，我們認為這是一個非常積極的信號。這與貸款的故事是一致的。當您查看我們已經看到和預測的強勁貸款增長時。但在我們認為需要的地方，我們正越來越多地與貨幣市場基金競爭。

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Arfstrom from RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Jon Arfstrom。

Just kind of a follow-up there, Jim, are you seeing any crusting in deposit pricing pressures? Is it decelerating at all?

吉姆，只是跟進一下，您是否看到存款定價壓力有所增加？它在減速嗎？

I wouldn't say it's decelerating. I wouldn't say it's accelerating either. It kind of feels like it hit a certain pace in November-December, and the more price-sensitive customers have already asked to be repriced. So from that standpoint, you could see the pressure start to step back a little bit.

我不會說它正在減速。我也不會說它正在加速。感覺好像在 11 月到 12 月達到了一定的速度，對價格更敏感的客戶已經要求重新定價。因此，從這個角度來看，您可以看到壓力開始有所減輕。

And some of these things -- some of these are discussions that go on for several weeks. So it's really hard to pinpoint exactly when it's crusting, but it's certainly not accelerating, but I do see that momentum continuing probably through the first quarter in terms of exception pricing.

其中一些事情——其中一些是持續數週的討論。所以很難準確地確定它何時結殼，但它肯定不會加速，但我確實看到這種勢頭可能會持續到第一季度，就例外定價而言。

In terms of what we need to do with standard pricing, it does feel like that maybe is abating a little bit, but there are always those exception customers that are out there, and I don't expect those to take a big step back over the next quarter.

就我們需要用標准定價做些什麼而言，確實感覺可能會有所減弱，但總有一些例外客戶在那裡，我不希望他們後退一大步下個季度。

And we'll likely get more competitive intentionally. So in terms of just going after customers that perhaps have moved their balances off balance sheet over the course of the last 9 months.

而且我們可能會故意提高競爭力。因此，就僅追查過去 9 個月中可能已將餘額移出資產負債表的客戶而言。

Okay. I know you just said you don't like to talk about the NIM, but I'll ask you about it in anyway. You're up 170 basis points year-over-year, and you're talking about stability. What kind of threats do you see to that NIM level? I know you've done a lot of hedging, but do you feel like that's a sustainable NIM level in kind of varying up and down rate environments?

好的。我知道你剛才說你不喜歡談論 NIM，但無論如何我都會問你。你比去年同期上漲了 170 個基點，而且你在談論穩定性。您認為 NIM 級別存在什麼樣的威脅？我知道你做了很多對沖，但你覺得在利率上下波動的環境中，這是一個可持續的 NIM 水平嗎？

I think the key to that is going to be DDA. That is really the wildcard, and it really has the ability to move net interest income a lot. You think about just $1 billion of DDA movement could create a $55 million drag in this forward curve environment.

我認為關鍵在於 DDA。那真的是萬能牌，它真的有能力把淨利息收入搬走很多。你認為只有 10 億美元的 DDA 運動可能會在這個前向曲線環境中造成 5500 萬美元的拖累。

So that is going to be the wildcard. So we think we can hover kind of in the upper 3s, call it the low to upper 3s -- or I'm sorry, mid to upper 3s, but more weighted towards the upper 3s. But I do think that DDA is going to be the key to that assumption and that outcome.

所以這將成為通配符。所以我們認為我們可以徘徊在上三分，稱之為低到上三分——或者對不起，中上三分，但更偏重於上三分。但我確實認為 DDA 將成為該假設和結果的關鍵。

Okay. Good. And then just one quick one to Melinda. Expected reserve build. How would you like us to think about that? It seems like credit is very clean. And obviously, you're talking about the lower end of charge-offs. So how do you want us to think about the reserve build?

好的。好的。然後快速向 Melinda 發送一封郵件。預期的儲備建設。您希望我們如何考慮？看起來信用很乾淨。很明顯，你說的是沖銷的低端。那麼你希望我們如何考慮儲備建設？

Yes, Jon, I would say that consistent with what we said last time, that if the economic forecast stays relatively stable, you're going to see continued loan -- or reserve build that's really consistent with our loan growth. So the reserve right now, we feel is conservatively positioned. We feel really good about it. And assuming no material deterioration in the economic forecast, I think that reserve build will approximate what we have going on from a balance sheet growth perspective.

是的，喬恩，我會說這與我們上次所說的一致，如果經濟預測保持相對穩定，你將看到持續的貸款——或與我們的貸款增長真正一致的準備金建設。所以現在的儲備，我們覺得是保守的定位。我們對此感覺非常好。假設經濟預測沒有實質性惡化，我認為儲備建設將接近我們從資產負債表增長的角度來看正在發生的事情。

And the current assumptions on the reserve build is for -- our baseline is a mild recession. So I think we've adequately factored in what the current economic forecast is -- looks like.

目前對儲備建設的假設是——我們的基線是溫和的衰退。所以我認為我們已經充分考慮了當前的經濟預測 - 看起來像什麼。

And at this time, there are no further questions. I would now like to turn the conference back to Curt Farmer, President, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

而此時，沒有進一步的問題。我現在想把會議轉回總裁、董事長兼首席執行官 Curt Farmer。

Well, we again say that I'm very, very proud of our record quarter. Thank you to all my colleagues for all they do every day. They take care of our customers and help our company grow. And thank you always for your interest in Comerica. I hope you have a good day. Thank you.

好吧，我們再次說，我為我們創紀錄的季度感到非常非常自豪。感謝我所有的同事每天所做的一切。他們照顧我們的客戶並幫助我們的公司成長。感謝您一直以來對 Comerica 的關注。祝你一天愉快。謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。