(CFG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Citizens Financial Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Kaley, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded. Now I'll turn the call over to Kristin Silberberg, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations. Kristin, you may begin.

大家早安，歡迎參加公民金融集團 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。我叫 Kaley，今天我將擔任你們的接線生。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，正在記錄此事件。現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係執行副總裁 Kristin Silberberg。克里斯汀，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Kaley. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, this morning, our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and CFO, John Woods, will provide an overview of our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. Brendan Coughlin, Head of Consumer Banking; and Don McCree, Head of Commercial Banking, are also here to provide additional color. We will be referencing our fourth quarter and full year earnings presentation located on our Investor Relations website.

謝謝你，凱莉。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。首先，今天上午，我們的董事長兼執行長 Bruce Van Saun；財務長 John Woods 將概述我們第四季和 2023 年全年業績。 Brendan Coughlin，消費者銀行業務主管；商業銀行業務主管唐·麥克雷 (Don McCree) 也在這裡提供了更多資訊。我們將參考投資者關係網站上的第四季和全年收益報告。

After the presentation, we will be happy to take questions. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. These are outlined for your review on Page 2 of the presentation. We also reference non-GAAP financial measures, so it's important to review our GAAP results on Page 3 of the presentation and the reconciliations in the appendix. And with that, I will hand over to Bruce.

演示結束後，我們將很樂意回答問題。我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期有重大差異。這些內容在簡報的第 2 頁上進行了概述，供您查看。我們也參考了非 GAAP 財務指標，因此請務必查看簡報第 3 頁上的 GAAP 結果以及附錄中的調整表。就這樣，我將把工作交給布魯斯。

Thanks, Kristin, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call today. 2023 was an incredible year in many respects, with the Fed's aggressive moves to subdue inflation on West Coast bank failures, a surprisingly resilient economy and several significant proposals from bank regulators. It was important in navigating this dynamic environment to focus first on playing strong defense while continuing to play disciplined offense and take advantage of opportunities in the market.

謝謝克里斯汀，大家早安，謝謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。 2023 年在許多方面都是令人難以置信的一年，聯準會因西海岸銀行倒閉而採取了積極的抑制通膨的舉措，經濟出人意料地具有彈性，而且銀行監管機構提出了幾項重大建議。在這種動態的環境中，重要的是首先要集中精力進行強有力的防守，同時繼續進行有紀律的進攻並利用市場機會。

Defense starts with the balance sheet and risk management, and I feel really good about how we ended the year. Our capital position is one of the strongest among the large regionals with a CET1 ratio of 10.6%. CET1 adjusted for AOCI of roughly 9% and a tangible common equity ratio of 6.7%. Our liquidity position is at an all-time best with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 82%, pro forma Category 1 LCR of 117% and 156% liquidity coverage of our uninsured deposits. Our ACL ratio is at 159% (sic) [1.59%] compared to 130% (sic) [1.30%] pro forma day-one CECL and general office reserves are at 10.2%.

防禦從資產負債表和風險管理開始，我對我們今年的結束感到非常滿意。我們的資本狀況是大型地區中最強的之一，CET1 比率為 10.6%。 CET1 調整後的 AOCI 約為 9%，有形普通股權益比率為 6.7%。我們的流動性狀況處於歷史最佳水平，貸存比為 82%，預計 1 類 LCR 為 117%，未保險存款的流動性覆蓋率為 156%。我們的 ACL 比率為 159%（原文如此）[1.59%]，而預期第一天 CECL 的比率為 130%（原文如此）[1.30%]，一般辦公室儲備金為 10.2%。

We continue to be very disciplined in terms of lending risk appetite and are focused on deep relationships, which deliver stronger relative returns. We are using a noncore strategy to run off loans and free capital for better opportunities. On offense, we have several important initiatives we are driving, such as the private bank build-out, the New York City Metro initiative, our focus on serving private capital and growing our payments business. These are all tracking well. In particular, we are pleased to see the Private Bank team reached $1.2 billion in deposits, soon after our launch in late October.

我們在貸款風險偏好方面繼續保持嚴格的紀律，並專注於深厚的關係，從而帶來更強的相對回報。我們正在使用非核心策略來償還貸款並釋放資本以獲得更好的機會。在進攻方面，我們正在推動幾項重要舉措，例如私人銀行擴建、紐約市地鐵計劃、我們專注於服務私人資本和發展我們的支付業務。這些都進展順利。特別是，我們很高興看到私人銀行團隊在 10 月底推出後不久就達到了 12 億美元的存款。

Our financials over the course of the year came under some pressure, primarily given higher funding costs. Nonetheless, we delivered a 13.5% underlying ROTCE for the full year with a 95% return of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. In the fourth quarter, we continue to see smaller sequential declines in NII than in the prior quarter as the Fed last hike in July and the pressure on funding costs has lessened. We saw a modest bounce back in fees but are very encouraged by the tone of the markets in 2024 to date. Hopefully, we start to see our big capital markets pipelines begin to deliver.

我們的財務狀況在這一年中受到了一些壓力，主要是由於融資成本較高。儘管如此，我們全年實現了 13.5% 的基礎 ROTCE，透過股息和股票回購為股東帶來了 95% 的資本回報。第四季度，由於聯準會上次升息是在 7 月份，而且融資成本壓力有所減輕，我們繼續看到 NII 環比降幅小於上一季。我們看到費用小幅反彈，但 2024 年迄今的市場基調令我們深受鼓舞。希望我們開始看到我們的大型資本市場管道開始發揮作用。

We took some meaningful cost actions in Q4 to set the stage for a very modest expense growth in 2024. We only had the private bank for 2 quarters. So if you normalize for that, we're actually reducing the legacy expense base by 1.4%. I should reinforce though that we are doing this while protecting our critical initiatives. Credit outlook continues to track expectations. CRE General Office is being carefully managed, losses are being absorbed in net charge-offs, it's relatively predictable with a few surprises so far. Away from that, credit quality is strong.

我們在第四季採取了一些有意義的成本行動，為 2024 年支出非常溫和的成長奠定了基礎。我們只擁有私人銀行兩個季度。因此，如果將其標準化，我們實際上將遺留費用基礎減少了 1.4%。但我應該強調的是，我們這樣做的同時保護了我們的關鍵舉措。信貸前景持續符合預期。華創辦公室正在謹慎管理，虧損正在透過淨沖銷來吸收，到目前為止，這是相對可預測的，但有一些意外。除此之外，信用品質很強。

In Q4, we saw a dip in absolute criticized loans and in the ratio, which is a promising sign. On the capital front, we did not buy in any stock in Q4 given the charges related to the FDIC special surcharge as well as associated with our cost initiatives. We expect to be back in the market in Q1 and for that to continue through 2024. Turning to our outlook. We expect NII to continue with modest declines through midyear and then start to tick up. The exciting news on NIM/NII is that we project meaningful benefits from swap and noncore runoff over 25% to 27%, which will power higher EPS and returns.

在第四季度，我們看到受批評貸款的絕對數量和比率有所下降，這是一個有希望的跡象。在資本方面，考慮到與 FDIC 特別附加費以及我們的成本計劃相關的費用，我們在第四季度沒有購買任何股票。我們預計將在第一季重返市場，並持續到 2024 年。轉向我們的展望。我們預計NII將在年中繼續小幅下降，然後開始上升。 NIM/NII 令人興奮的消息是，我們預計互換和非核心徑流將帶來超過 25% 至 27% 的有意義的收益，這將推動更高的每股收益和回報。

We are poised for strong fee growth led by capital markets. Net charge-offs will rise modestly, but we are likely to see ACL releases over the course of the year.

我們準備好在資本市場的帶動下實現強勁的費用成長。淨沖銷將小幅上升，但我們很可能會在今年看到 ACL 的釋放。

Our key priorities for 2024 will be to continue to operate with a strong defense/prudent offense mindset. We have many exciting things on our technology, our digital, data analytics and AI road map that we need to deliver on. It's an exciting time for Citizens. We feel we are well positioned for medium-term outperformance.

我們 2024 年的主要優先事項將是繼續以強有力的防守/謹慎的進攻心態運作。我們的技術、數位化、數據分析和人工智慧路線圖上有許多令人興奮的事情需要我們實現。對於公民來說，這是一個激動人心的時刻。我們認為我們處於中期優異表現的有利位置。

I'd like to end my remarks by thanking our colleagues for rising to the occasion and delivering a great effort in 2023. We know we can count on you again in the new year. With that, let me turn it over to John.

在結束演講時，我想感謝我們的同事在 2023 年挺身而出並做出了巨大努力。我們知道在新的一年裡我們可以再次依靠你們。那麼，讓我把它交給約翰。

Thanks, Bruce, and good morning, everyone. I'll start off with some commentary on 2023. We demonstrated excellent balance sheet strength while delivering solid financial performance. We were resilient through a turbulent environment, benefiting from near top of peer group capital levels and strong liquidity based on stable consumer insured deposits and diversified wholesale funding sources.

謝謝布魯斯，大家早安。我將首先對 2023 年進行一些評論。我們展示了出色的資產負債表實力，同時實現了穩健的財務表現。我們在動盪的環境中保持了韌性，受益於接近同行集團最高的資本水平以及基於穩定的消費者保險存款和多元化批發融資來源的強大流動性。

This strength allowed us to execute well against our multiyear strategic initiatives while opportunistically building out the private bank. On Slide 6, you can see that we delivered underlying EPS of $3.88, which included a $0.51 drag from noncore and an $0.11 investment in the private bank. Full year ROTCE was 13.5% after incorporating these items.

這種優勢使我們能夠很好地執行我們的多年策略舉措，同時機會主義地建立私人銀行。在投影片 6 上，您可以看到我們實現的基本每股收益為 3.88 美元，其中包括來自非核心業務的 0.51 美元拖累和對私人銀行的 0.11 美元投資。納入這些項目後，全年 ROTCE 為 13.5%。

Before I discuss the details of the fourth quarter results, here are some highlights referencing Slides 4, 5 and 7. On the slide, you can see we generated underlying net income of $426 million for the fourth quarter and EPS of $0.85. This includes $0.06 for our continued investment in the start-up of the private bank and a $0.15 negative impact from the noncore portfolio.

在討論第四季度業績的詳細資訊之前，這裡有一些參考投影片4、5 和7 的要點。在投影片上，您可以看到我們第四季的基本淨利潤為4.26 億美元，每股收益為0.85 美元。這包括我們對私人銀行新創公司的持續投資 0.06 美元，以及非核心投資組合的 0.15 美元負面影響。

We had a significant increase in the impact from notable items this quarter included on Slide 4. The largest driver was the FDIC special assessment followed by elevated top and severance-related expenses attributable to meaningful head count reduction. Our underlying ROTCE for the quarter was 11.8%. Our legacy Core [bank] delivered a solid underlying ROTCE of 14.8%. Currently, the private bank start-up investment is dilutive to results, but relatively quickly, this will become increasingly accretive.

投影片 4 中包含的本季顯著項目的影響顯著增加。最大的推動因素是 FDIC 特別評估，其次是由於人員數量大幅減少而導致的最高費用和遣散費相關費用的增加。我們本季的基本 ROTCE 為 11.8%。我們的傳統核心 [銀行] 提供了 14.8% 的堅實基礎 ROTCE。目前，私人銀行的新創投資正在稀釋業績，但相對較快地，這將變得越來越增值。

The Private Bank is off to a very good start, raising about $1.2 billion of deposits through the end of the year, of which more than 30% are noninterest-bearing. While our noncore portfolio is currently a sizable drag to results, it continues to run off, further bolstering our overall performance going forward. We ended the year with a very strong balance sheet position with CET1 at 10.6% or 9% adjusted for the AOCI opt-out removal and an ACL coverage ratio of 1.59%, up from 1.55% in the third quarter.

私人銀行開局良好，截至年底籌集了約 12 億美元存款，其中 30% 以上為無息存款。雖然我們的非核心投資組合目前對業績造成相當大的拖累，但它仍在繼續減少，進一步支撐了我們未來的整體表現。年底，我們的資產負債表狀況非常強勁，CET1 為 10.6%，根據 AOCI 選擇退出調整後的 9%，ACL 覆蓋率為 1.59%，高於第三季的 1.55%。

This includes a robust 10.2% coverage for general office, up from 9.5% in the prior quarter. We continued to build liquidity during the fourth quarter, achieving our planned liquidity profile. Our pro forma Category 1 bank LCR rose to 117% from 109% in the prior quarter. We also reduced our period-end FHLB borrowings by $3.3 billion quarter-over-quarter to $3.8 billion, and our period-end LDR improved linked quarter to 82% from 84%.

其中包括 10.2% 的普通辦公室覆蓋率，高於上一季的 9.5%。我們在第四季度繼續增加流動性，實現了我們計劃的流動性狀況。我們預計 1 類銀行 LCR 從上一季的 109% 上升至 117%。我們也將期末 FHLB 借款季減了 33 億美元，至 38 億美元，期末 LDR 較上季從 84% 提高到 82%。

Regarding strategic initiatives, as previously mentioned, the Private Bank is off to a great start and TOP continues to contribute. In addition, New York Metro is tracking well and we are poised to capitalize on the growing private capital opportunity.

關於策略舉措，如前所述，私人銀行已經有了一個良好的開端，TOP將繼續做出貢獻。此外，紐約地鐵發展勢頭良好，我們準備充分利用不斷增長的私人資本機會。

Next, I'll talk through the fourth quarter results in more detail. Turning to Slide 8 and starting with net interest income. As expected, NII is down 2% linked quarter, primarily reflecting a lower net interest margin, partially offset by a 2% increase in average interest-earning assets.

接下來，我將更詳細地討論第四季的業績。轉向幻燈片 8，從淨利息收入開始。如預期，NII 環比下降 2%，主要反映淨利差下降，但部分被平均生息資產 2% 的成長所抵消。

As you can see from the NIM walk at the bottom of the slide, the combined benefit of higher asset yields and noncore runoff were more than offset by higher funding costs and swaps, the net impact of which reduced NIM by 3 basis points to the 3% level. The additional 9 basis point decline to 2.91% was due to the impact of our liquidity build, which was neutral to NII. Our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta increased a modest 3 basis points to 51% as the Fed has paused, and we see continued but slowing deposit migration.

正如您從幻燈片底部的NIM 走動中看到的那樣，較高的資產收益率和非核心徑流的綜合效益被較高的融資成本和掉期所抵消，其淨影響使NIM 降低了3 個基點，達到 3 個基點。％ 等級。額外下降 9 個基點至 2.91%，這是由於我們的流動性建設的影響，這對 NII 是中性的。由於聯準會暫停升息，我們的累積計息存款貝塔值小幅上升 3 個基點至 51%，我們看到存款遷移仍在繼續但正在放緩。

We expect this moderating trend to continue until the Fed eventually cuts rates. Overall, our deposit franchise has performed well with our beta generally in the pack with peers. This was a significant improvement compared to prior cycles when our beta experience was at the higher end of peers.

我們預計這種放緩趨勢將持續下去，直到聯準會最終降息。整體而言，我們的存款業務表現良好，我們的測試版總體上與同業不相上下。與之前的周期相比，這是一個顯著的進步，當時我們的測試體驗處於同行的高端。

Moving to Slide 9. Fees were up 2% linked quarter given improvement in capital markets and a record performance from wealth. These results were partially offset by lower mortgage banking fees. The improvement in capital markets reflects increased activity with the decline in long [rates] in November, driving a nice pickup in bond underwriting. Equities improved with its strength in the back half of the quarter as the environment became more favorable. M&A advisory fees benefited from seasonality and an improvement in the environment given the better macro and rates outlook although several transactions pushed to Q1.

轉向幻燈片 9。由於資本市場的改善和創紀錄的財富表現，費用環比增長 2%。這些結果被較低的抵押貸款銀行費用部分抵消。資本市場的改善反映出 11 月長期利率下降導致活動增加，推動債券承銷大幅回升。隨著環境變得更加有利，股市在本季後半段走強。儘管有幾筆交易推遲到第一季度，但由於宏觀和利率前景較好，併購諮詢費受益於季節性和環境的改善。

We see capital markets momentum picking up in Q1 as markets are positive and our deal pipelines are strong. The wealth business delivered a record quarter with higher sales activity and good momentum in AUM growth. The decline in mortgage banking fees was driven by lower production fees as high mortgage rates continue to weigh on lock volumes. The servicing operating P&L improved modestly, while the MSR valuation net of hedging was lower.

我們認為，由於市場積極且我們的交易管道強勁，資本市場勢頭在第一季有所回升。財富業務季度業績創歷史新高，銷售活動增加，資產管理規模成長動能良好。抵押貸款銀行費用的下降是由於高抵押貸款利率繼續影響鎖倉量而導致生產費用下降。服務營運損益略有改善，而扣除避險後的 MSR 估值較低。

On Slide 10, we did well on expenses, which were down slightly linked quarter, even while including the impact of the continued private bank start-up investment. Our reported expense of $1.61 billion increased $319 million, including notable items totaling $323 million, namely the industry-wide FDIC special assessment of $225 million and the impact of taking cost reduction actions to adjust our expense base heading into 2024. I'll discuss that in more detail in a few minutes.

在投影片 10 中，我們在支出方面表現良好，儘管考慮了持續的私人銀行新創投資的影響，但與季度相關的支出略有下降。我們報告的16.1 億美元支出增加了3.19 億美元，其中值得注意的項目總計3.23 億美元，即2.25 億美元的全行業FDIC 特別評估，以及採取成本削減行動來調整我們進入2024 年的支出基礎的影響。我將討論這一點幾分鐘後會更詳細地介紹。

On Slide 11, average loans are down 2% and period-end loans are down 3% linked quarted. This was driven by noncore portfolio runoff and a decline in commercial loans, which were partly offset by some modest core growth in mortgage and home equity. Average core loans are down 1%, largely driven by generally lower loan demand in commercial, along with exits of lower returning relationships and our highly selective approach to new lending in this environment. Average commercial line utilization continued to decline this quarter as clients remain cautious and M&A activity muted in the face of an uncertain market environment.

在投影片 11 中，第四季平均貸款下降 2%，期末貸款下降 3%。這是由非核心投資組合流失和商業貸款下降所推動的，而抵押貸款和房屋淨值的核心成長在一定程度上抵消了這些下降。平均核心貸款下降了 1%，主要是由於商業貸款需求普遍下降、回報率較低的關係的退出以及我們在這種環境下對新貸款的高度選擇性方法所致。本季平均商業線路利用率持續下降，因為面對不確定的市場環境，客戶保持謹慎且併購活動溫和。

Next, on Slides 12 and 13. We continue to do well on deposits. Period-end deposits were broadly stable linked quarter with an increase in consumer driven by the private bank, offset by lower commercial. The decline in commercial deposits was driven by a proactive effort to optimize the liquidity value of deposits running off approximately $3.5 billion of higher cost financial institution and municipal deposits during the fourth quarter. [Gap] Absent this BSO effect, deposits would have been up by about 1.5% this quarter.

接下來，在投影片 12 和 13 上。我們在存款方面繼續表現良好。由於私人銀行推動的消費成長，被商業銀行的下降所抵消，期末存款與季度掛鉤大致穩定。商業存款下降的原因是，我們積極主動優化第四季約 35 億美元成本較高的金融機構和市政存款的流動性價值。 [差距] 如果沒有 BSO 的影響，本季存款將增加約 1.5%。

Our interest-bearing deposit costs are up 19 basis points, which translates to 51% cumulative beta. Our deposit franchise is highly diversified across product mix and channels with 67% of our deposits in consumer and about 71% insured or secured. This has allowed us to efficiently and cost effectively manage our deposits in the higher rate environment. With the Fed holding steady, we saw continued migration of deposits to higher-cost categories with noninterest-bearing now representing about 21% of total deposits. This is slightly below pre-pandemic levels, and we expect the pace of migration to continue to moderate from here, although this will be dependent on the path of rates and customer behavior.

我們的計息存款成本上升了 19 個基點，相當於 51% 的累積貝塔係數。我們的存款業務在產品組合和通路上高度多元化，67% 的存款為消費者存款，約 71% 的存款已投保或擔保。這使我們能夠在較高利率的環境下高效且具成本效益地管理我們的存款。在聯準會保持穩定的情況下，我們看到存款繼續向成本較高的類別遷移，其中無息存款目前約佔總存款的 21%。這略低於疫情前的水平，我們預計遷移速度將繼續放緩，儘管這將取決於利率和客戶行為的路徑。

Moving on to credit on Slide 14. Net charge-offs were 46 basis points, up 6 basis points linked quarter. We were pleased to see that commercial charge-offs were stable linked quarter, and we also saw a modest decline in criticized loans as we continue to work through the general office portfolio. We saw continued normalization of charge-offs in the retail portfolio along with seasonal impacts.

轉向幻燈片 14 上的信貸。淨沖銷為 46 個基點，環比上升 6 個基點。我們很高興看到商業沖銷在季度中保持穩定，而且隨著我們繼續處理一般辦公室投資組合，我們也看到批評貸款略有下降。我們看到零售投資組合的沖銷持續正常化以及季節性影響。

Turning to the allowance for credit losses on Slide 15. Our overall coverage ratio stands at 1.59%, which is a 4 basis point increase from the third quarter, primarily reflecting the denominator effect from lower portfolio balances. We increased the reserve for the $3.6 billion general office portfolio to $370 million, which represents a coverage of 10.2%, up from 9.5% in the third quarter as we made modest adjustments to model loss drivers. We have already taken $148 million in charge-offs in this portfolio, which is about 4% of loans.

轉向投影片 15 上的信用損失準備金。我們的整體覆蓋率為 1.59%，較第三季增加 4 個基點，主要反映了投資組合餘額較低的分母效應。由於我們對模型損失驅動因素進行了適度調整，我們將 36 億美元的一般辦公室投資組合的準備金增加至 3.7 億美元，覆蓋範圍從第三季的 9.5% 上升至 10.2%。我們已經在該投資組合中沖銷了 1.48 億美元，約佔貸款的 4%。

On the bottom left side of the page, you can see some of the key assumptions driving the general office reserve coverage level. We feel these assumptions represent an adverse scenario that is much worse than we've seen in historical downturns. So we feel the current coverage is very strong.

在頁面的左下角，您可以看到一些推動一般辦公室準備金覆蓋水平的關鍵假設。我們認為這些假設代表了一種不利的情況，比我們在歷史低迷時期看到的情況要糟糕得多。所以我們覺得目前的覆蓋範圍非常強。

Moving to Slide 16. We have maintained excellent balance sheet strength. Our CET1 ratio increased to 10.6%. And if you were to adjust for the AOCI opt-out removal under the current regulatory proposal, our CET1 ratio would be about 9%. Also, our tangible common equity ratio improved to 6.7% at the end of the year. Both our CET1 and TCE ratios have consistently been in the top quartile of our peers and you can see on Slide 36 in the appendix, where we stand currently relative to peers in the third quarter.

轉到投影片 16。我們保持了出色的資產負債表實力。我們的 CET1 比率提高到 10.6%。如果根據目前監管提案對 AOCI 選擇退出進行調整，我們的 CET1 比率將約為 9%。此外，年底我們的有形普通股比率提高至 6.7%。我們的 CET1 和 TCE 比率一直是同業前四分之一，您可以在附錄中的投影片 36 中看到，我們目前相對於第三季同業的情況。

We returned a total of $198 million to shareholders through dividends in the fourth quarter. We paused our share repurchases in the fourth quarter in light of the FDIC special assessment. Having exceeded our target capital level for year-end, we expect to resume repurchases in the [full] first quarter. Nevertheless, we plan to maintain strong capital and liquidity levels that fortify our balance sheet against macro uncertainties and position us to quickly transition to any new regulatory rules that may impact banks of our size.

第四季我們透過股息總共向股東返還了 1.98 億美元。鑑於 FDIC 的特別評估，我們在第四季度暫停了股票回購。由於超出了年底的目標資本水平，我們預計將在第一季[完整]恢復回購。儘管如此，我們計劃保持強勁的資本和流動性水平，以增強我們的資產負債表應對宏觀不確定性的能力，並使我們能夠迅速過渡到任何可能影響我們規模銀行的新監管規則。

On the next few pages, I'll update you on a few of our key initiatives we have underway across the bank, including our private bank and our ongoing balance sheet optimization program. First, on Slide 17, the build-out of the Private Bank is going very well and clearly gathering momentum. Following our formal launch in the fourth quarter, our bankers have raised more than $1.2 billion of attractive deposits with roughly 75% of that from commercial clients. This is a coast-to-coast [team] with a presence in some of our key markets like New York, Boston and places where we'd like to do more like Florida and California.

在接下來的幾頁中，我將向您介紹我們在整個銀行開展的一些關鍵舉措的最新情況，包括我們的私人銀行和正在進行的資產負債表優化計劃。首先，在投影片 17 上，私人銀行的建設進展順利，且勢頭明顯增強。自第四季度正式推出以來，我們的銀行家已籌集了超過 12 億美元的有吸引力的存款，其中約 75% 來自商業客戶。這是一支橫跨東西海岸的[團隊]，在我們的一些主要市場（如紐約、波士頓）以及我們希望開展更多業務的地方（如佛羅裡達和加利福尼亞）開展業務。

We have plans to open a few private banking centers in these geographies, and we are opportunistically adding talent to bolster our banking and wealth capabilities with our Clarfeld Wealth Management business as the centerpiece of that effort.

我們計劃在這些地區開設一些私人銀行中心，我們正在機會性地增加人才，以增強我們的銀行和財富能力，並將我們的克拉菲爾德財富管理業務作為這項努力的核心。

Moving to Slide 18. You are all well aware of our efforts in New York Metro. That's going really well. We are hitting our targets there. And on the commercial side, as I mentioned before, we are starting to see momentum building in capital markets. This should translate into a meaningful opportunity for us as the substantial capital backing private equity gets put to work.

轉到幻燈片 18。你們都清楚我們在紐約地鐵所做的努力。一切進展順利。我們正在實現我們的目標。在商業方面，正如我之前提到的，我們開始看到資本市場的勢頭正在增強。隨著支持私募股權的大量資本投入使用，這對我們來說應該轉化為一個有意義的機會。

Next, on Slide 19, we continue to be disciplined on expenses. It's important to remember that a key to Citizen success since our IPO has been our continuous effort to find new efficiencies and then reinvest those benefits back into our businesses so we can serve customers better. We've effectively executed our top 8 program, achieving a pretax run rate benefit of about $115 million at the end of 2023. And we've launched top 9 with a goal of an exit run rate of about $135 million of pretax benefits by the end of 2024. The new TOP program is focused on efficiency opportunities from further automation and the use of AI to better serve our customers.

接下來，在投影片 19 上，我們繼續遵守開支紀律。重要的是要記住，自首次公開募股以來，西鐵城成功的關鍵是我們不斷努力尋找新的效率，然後將這些效益重新投資到我們的業務中，以便我們能夠更好地為客戶服務。我們有效地執行了top 8 計劃，到2023 年底實現了約1.15 億美元的稅前運行率效益。我們還啟動了top 9 計劃，目標是到2023 年底實現約1.35 億美元的稅前運行率退出運行率。2024 年底。新的 TOP 計劃重點關注進一步自動化和使用人工智慧帶來的效率機會，以更好地為我們的客戶服務。

We are executing on opportunities to simplify our organization and save more on third-party spend as well. Last year, we exited the auto business, and we also exited the wholesale mortgage business in the fourth quarter. We are also adjusting our expense base through further meaningful actions. In the fourth quarter, we reduced our head count by about 650 or approximately 3.5%, and we have also taken a hard look at our space needs and are rationalizing some of our corporate and back office facilities.

我們正在抓住機會簡化我們的組織並節省更多第三方支出。去年我們退出了汽車業務，第四季我們也退出了批發抵押貸款業務。我們也透過進一步有意義的行動來調整我們的支出基礎。在第四季度，我們減少了約 650 名員工，約 3.5%，我們也認真審視了我們的空間需求，並對我們的一些公司和後台設施進行了合理化調整。

Given all this work, we are targeting to limit our underlying expense growth in 2024 to roughly 1% to 1.5% with a net decrease in legacy Citizens expenses of 1.3% to 1.5% being offset by investments in the Private Bank. Playing prudent defense is at the top of our priority list given the challenging year we saw with the turmoil that began back in March and the uncertain macro outlook. So we are reworking both sides of the balance sheet through our balance sheet optimization efforts.

鑑於所有這些工作，我們的目標是將 2024 年的基本支出成長限制在約 1% 至 1.5%，傳統公民支出淨減少 1.3% 至 1.5%，並被私人銀行的投資所抵銷。鑑於今年三月開始的動盪和不確定的宏觀前景，今年充滿挑戰，謹慎防禦是我們的首要任務。因此，我們正在透過資產負債表優化工作來重新調整資產負債表的兩側。

Slide 20 provides an update on our efforts to remix the loan portfolio through our noncore strategy and optimization on the commercial side with a focus on relationship-based lending and attractive risk-adjusted returns. On the left side of the page, you'll see the relatively rapid rundown of the remaining $11 billion noncore portfolio which is comprised of our shorter duration indirect auto portfolio and purchased consumer loans. This portfolio is expected to decline by about $6.4 billion from where we were at the end of the year to about $4.7 billion at the end of 2025.

投影片 20 介紹了我們透過非核心策略和商業方面的最佳化來重新組合貸款組合的最新情況，重點是基於關係的貸款和有吸引力的風險調整回報。在頁面左側，您將看到剩餘 110 億美元非核心投資組合的相對快速縮減，其中包括我們期限較短的間接汽車投資組合和購買的消費貸款。該投資組合預計將從年底減少約 64 億美元，至 2025 年底約 47 億美元。

And as this runs down, we plan to redeploy the majority of remaining cash paydowns to a reduction in wholesale funding with the remainder used to support organic relationship-based loan growth in the core portfolio. The capital recaptured through reduction in noncore RWA will be primarily reallocated to support attractive growth in retail and commercial lending through the private bank. In the broader consumer portfolio, we are targeting growth in the home equity, card and mortgage, which offered the greatest relationship potential.

隨著資金的減少，我們計劃將大部分剩餘現金支付重新部署到批發融資的減少中，其餘部分用於支持核心投資組合中基於有機關係的貸款成長。透過減少非核心風險加權資產而收回的資本將主要重新分配，以透過私人銀行支持零售和商業貸款的有吸引力的增長。在更廣泛的消費者投資組合中，我們的目標是房屋淨值、信用卡和抵押貸款的成長，這提供了最大的關係潛力。

Moving to the right side of the page, we are also working on the commercial portfolio, exiting lower-return, credit-only relationships and focusing on selective C&I lending with multiproduct relationship opportunities. We are leading more deals on our front book, improving spreads while also improving the overall return profile of the book. In the appendix, we have included more information covering the broad contours of our BSO program including how we are managing our high-quality deposit book, remixing our wholesale funding, managing our securities portfolio and positioning our capital base against the backdrop of a changing macro and regulatory environment.

轉到頁面右側，我們也正在研究商業投資組合，退出低迴報、純信貸關係，並專注於具有多產品關係機會的選擇性工商業貸款。我們在我們的封面上引領了更多交易，改善了點差，同時也改善了封面的整體回報狀況。在附錄中，我們提供了更多涉及BSO 計劃總體輪廓的信息，包括我們如何管理我們的高品質存款簿、重新混合我們的批發資金、管理我們的證券投資組合以及在不斷變化的宏觀背景下定位我們的資本基礎和監管環境。

Moving to Slide 21, I will take you through our full year 2024 outlook, which contemplates the early January forward curve and a Fed funds rate of 4.25% by the end of the year. We expect NII to be down 6% to 9%, with changes in our swap book contributing to about half of that decline and average loans down roughly 2% to 3%. However, we expect spot loan growth of 3% to 5% and with Private Bank growing over the course of the year and commercial activity picking up in the second half. On the deposit side, we expect spot growth of 1.2% -- I'm sorry, 1% to 2% and well-controlled deposit costs with a terminal beta in the low 50s before rate cuts are anticipated to begin in May.

轉向投影片 21，我將向您介紹我們的 2024 年全年展望，其中考慮了 1 月初的遠期曲線和年底聯邦基金利率為 4.25%。我們預計 NII 將下降 6% 至 9%，其中掉期帳簿的變化約佔降幅的一半，平均貸款下降約 2% 至 3%。然而，我們預計現貨貸款將成長 3% 至 5%，私人銀行業務將在年內成長，商業活動將在下半年回升。在存款方面，我們預計即期成長率為 1.2%——抱歉，是 1% 到 2%，存款成本受到良好控制，最終貝塔值在 50 左右，預計 5 月開始降息。

We expect our net interest margin to trough around the middle of the year and average in the 2.8% to 2.85% range for the full year, and we expect to exit the year around 2.85%. We've included Slide 23, which shows the expected swaps and noncore impact through 2027. In 2024, we expect higher swap expense to be partly offset by the NII benefit from the noncore rundown. You'll find a summary of our hedge position in the appendix on Slide 38, which demonstrates how the 2024 headwind, which is incorporated in our 2024 NII guide, reverses to a substantial NII tailwinds in 2025 and beyond as the current forward curve is realized.

我們預計淨利差將在年中左右觸底，全年平均在 2.8% 至 2.85% 範圍內，預計今年退出時約為 2.85%。我們新增了投影片 23，其中顯示了到 2027 年的預期掉期和非核心影響。到 2024 年，我們預計較高的掉期費用將被非核心項目帶來的 NII 收益部分抵消。您可以在投影片 38 的附錄中找到我們對沖頭寸的摘要，該摘要展示了我們的 2024 年 NII 指南中納入的 2024 年逆風如何在當前遠期曲線實現時逆轉為 2025 年及以後的大幅 NII 順風。

For example, there is an expected improvement in NII contribution from swabs in 2025 year-over-year of approximately $371 million with continued meaningful benefits in 2026 and 2027. Noninterest income is expected to be up in the 6% to 9% range, depending upon the market environment, led by a nice rebound in capital markets. We expect expenses to be up about 1% to 1.5%. Excluding the private bank, this would be down 1.3% to 1.5%. We have provided a walk showing the components of our 2024 expense outlook on Slide 22 to provide more context.

例如，預計 2025 年拭子的 NII 貢獻將年增約 3.71 億美元，並在 2026 年和 2027 年持續帶來有意義的效益。非利息收入預計將增加 6% 至 9%，具體取決於在市場環境的帶動下，資本市場出現良好反彈。我們預計費用將成長約 1% 至 1.5%。不包括私人銀行，這一數字將下降 1.3% 至 1.5%。我們在投影片 22 上展示了 2024 年支出前景的組成部分，以提供更多背景資訊。

NCOs are expected to average about 50 basis points for the year as we continue to work through the general office portfolio and expect further normalization in retail. Given macro trends, our remixing of the balance sheet through commercial DSO and the noncore strategy and expectations for modest portfolio growth, we will see -- we will likely see ACR releases over the course of the year. We plan to resume share repurchases in the first quarter in the $300 million range with more over the course of the year, depending upon market conditions and loan growth.

隨著我們繼續研究一般辦公室投資組合併預計零售業將進一步正常化，NCO 預計今年平均成長率約為 50 個基點。考慮到宏觀趨勢、我們透過商業 DSO 和非核心策略對資產負債表的重新組合以及對投資組合適度增長的預期，我們可能會在今年看到 ACR 的發布。我們計劃在第一季恢復 3 億美元的股票回購，並根據市場狀況和貸款成長在年內進行更多股票回購。

Taking that into account, we still expect to end the year with a strong CET1 ratio of about 10.5%, which is at the upper end of our target range. Putting it all together, we expect to return to sequential positive operating leverage in the second half of the year with PPNR troughing in the second quarter 2024.

考慮到這一點，我們仍然預計今年年底 CET1 比率將保持在 10.5% 左右，處於我們目標範圍的上限。總而言之，我們預計下半年營運槓桿將恢復連續正值，PPNR 將在 2024 年第二季觸底。

Moving to Slides 24 and 25. As Bruce mentioned, we are well positioned to deliver attractive returns. As we look out over the medium term, we have a clear path to achieve a 16% to 18% ROTCE. We expect to generate solid returns from our legacy core business, with a substantial NII tailwind given swap portfolio runoff. We expect to deliver positive operating leverage with strong expense discipline and we are well positioned to grow fees meaningfully given the investments we've made in our capabilities over the past few years. We also expect a meaningful contribution from the private bank as it matures and a tailwind from the runoff of the noncore portfolio as redeploy that capital and liquidity.

轉到幻燈片 24 和 25。正如 Bruce 所提到的，我們處於有利地位，可以提供有吸引力的回報。展望中期，我們有一條明確的道路可以實現 16% 至 18% 的 ROTCE。我們預計將從我們的傳統核心業務中獲得穩健的回報，並在掉期投資組合的退出下帶來巨大的NII順風。我們希望透過嚴格的費用紀律提供積極的營運槓桿，並考慮到我們過去幾年對能力的投資，我們處於有利地位，可以有意義地增加費用。我們也預計，隨著私人銀行的成熟，私人銀行將做出有意義的貢獻，隨著重新部署資本和流動性，非核心投資組合的流失將帶來推動力。

We will continue to operate with a prudent risk appetite and focus on returning a meaningful amount of capital to shareholders through our repurchase program and targeting a dividend payout of 35% to 40%. Over the medium term, we expect our CET1 ratio to remain within a target range of 10% to 10.5%, about 50 basis points higher than our prior target range given the continued uncertainty in the macro environment.

我們將繼續以審慎的風險偏好運營，並專注於透過回購計畫向股東返還大量資本，目標股利支付率為 35% 至 40%。從中期來看，考慮到宏觀環境的持續不確定性，我們預計 CET1 比率將保持在 10% 至 10.5% 的目標範圍內，比先前的目標範圍高出約 50 個基點。

On Slide 26, we provide the guidance for the first quarter. Note that the first quarter has seasonal impacts due to lower day count impact on revenue as well as taxes on compensation payouts impacting expenses.

在投影片 26 上，我們提供了第一季的指導。請注意，由於天數減少對收入的影響以及影響支出的補償支出稅，第一季存在季節性影響。

To wrap up, we demonstrated the resilience of the franchise and maintained strong discipline in 2023 as we work to position the bank to continue to deliver attractive returns to shareholders over the medium term. We delivered solid results this quarter, and we ended the year with a strong capital liquidity and funding position that puts us in an excellent position to drive forward with our strategic priorities and take advantage of opportunities that may arise. We are continuing to optimize the balance sheet and we are focused on allocating capital where we can drive deeper relationship business and improved performance over the medium term. With that, I'll hand it back over to Bruce.

總而言之，我們展現了特許經營權的彈性，並在 2023 年保持嚴格的紀律，努力使銀行在中期內繼續為股東提供有吸引力的回報。本季我們取得了穩健的業績，年底時我們擁有強大的資本流動性和資金狀況，這使我們處於有利地位，可以推動我們的策略重點並利用可能出現的機會。我們正在繼續優化資產負債表，並專注於分配資本，以推動更深層的關係業務並提高中期內的績效。這樣，我就把它交還給布魯斯。

Okay. Thank you, John. Kaley, let's open it up for Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，約翰。 Kaley，讓我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question will come from the line of Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題將來自 Peter Winter 和 D.A. 的線路。戴維森。

Can you guys provide some color on the drivers to that spot loan growth, including some details about the contribution from the private bank and what you're thinking in terms of commercial line utilization.

你們能否提供一些有關即期貸款成長驅動因素的信息，包括有關私人銀行貢獻的一些詳細信息以及您對商業貸款利用率的看法。

Yes, I'll just start off and others can add. But I mean, I think those are the 2 drivers, as you mentioned. When we look out into primarily the second half of 2024, we are seeing an expectation that commercial activity will pick up. Loan utilization is flattening out here, we expect early in the year and then so that will be part of the driver. We also have had some DSO activity in late '23 and early '24 that we expect to moderate in the second half of the year as well. So you're going to see a number of nice tailwinds on the commercial side.

是的，我只是開始，其他人可以添加。但我的意思是，正如您所提到的，我認為這就是兩個驅動因素。當我們主要展望 2024 年下半年時，我們預計商業活動將會回升。貸款利用率正在趨於平穩，我們預計在今年年初，然後這將成為驅動因素的一部分。我們也在 23 年末和 24 年初進行了一些 DSO 活動，我們預計這些活動也會在下半年有所放緩。因此，您將在商業方面看到許多良好的推動力。

And then on the consumer side of things, we are seeing opportunities with good relationship business in the mortgage space and HELOC, which has been a very nice and consistent driver for us. But those are the main drivers. And then, of course, broadly, the private bank, which has just gotten off to a great start on the deposit side of things in late '23. And we're going to see some of that loan opportunity pick up in '24. So those are the big, I would say, components of seeing that spot loan...

然後在消費者方面，我們在抵押貸款領域和 HELOC 中看到了擁有良好關係業務的機會，這對我們來說是一個非常好的和持續的驅動力。但這些是主要驅動力。當然，從廣義上講，還有私人銀行，23 世紀末，該銀行在存款方面剛剛取得了良好的開端。我們將看到一些貸款機會在 24 年增加。所以我想說，這些是看到現貨貸款的重要組成部分...

Maybe, Brendan, you could talk a little bit about what you expect for private bank lending.

布倫丹，也許您可以談談您對私人銀行貸款的期望。

Yes. Sure. Well, I would start by just a quick comment on Q4 for the Private Bank. Obviously, strong deposit print, and I think demonstrating that the strength of the strategy can be very diversified and led by wealth and deposits and not necessarily requiring low interest lending to dislodge the relationship. So we're really excited about the print and the start by the team. Having said that, we do expect lending to pick up steam in 2024 given the interest rate environment, mortgages are obviously challenged on the retail side. So the lending has been more heavily led by commercial lending, which has skewed in the private equity and venture space, which we're really comfortable with the risk appetite and the profile that business, and it's been critical to start to dislodge personal private banking relationships from the ecosystem of private equity and ventures. So we're off to a really good start.

是的。當然。好吧，我首先對私人銀行第四季進行快速評論。顯然，強勁的存款印刷，我認為這證明了該策略的優勢可以非常多元化，並由財富和存款主導，而不一定需要低利率貸款來擺脫這種關係。因此，我們對團隊的印刷和啟動感到非常興奮。話雖如此，考慮到利率環境，我們確實預計 2024 年貸款將會加速，零售方面的抵押貸款顯然會受到挑戰。因此，貸款更多由商業貸款主導，這在私募股權和風險投資領域有所傾斜，我們對風險偏好和業務狀況非常滿意，開始驅逐個人私人銀行業務至關重要私募股權和風險投資生態系統中的關係。所以我們有了一個非常好的開始。

I suspect given the forward curves that the first half of the year will continue to be led by commercial, principally in private equity and venture lending. Over time, we expect the loan book to be much more balanced and have more retail lending, home equity lending, mortgage lending coming in at scale as the rate environment dictates opportunities there. We also expect to lean into partner loan programs to help connect the corporate side of private equity venture with private banking and personal banking. So you'll start to see an asset diversification over time. But the first half of the year, we would expect it to still be more heavily weighted on the corporate side.

我懷疑，鑑於遠期曲線，今年上半年將繼續由商業主導，主要是私募股權和風險貸款。隨著時間的推移，我們預計貸款帳簿將更加平衡，隨著利率環境決定機會，將有更多的零售貸款、房屋淨值貸款、抵押貸款大規模出現。我們還希望依靠合作夥伴貸款計劃，幫助將私募股權投資的企業方與私人銀行和個人銀行業務聯繫起來。因此，隨著時間的推移，您將開始看到資產多元化。但今年上半年，我們預期企業的權重仍將更大。

Don, anything to add on the commercial side.

唐，在商業方面還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I think if you look back at the fourth quarter, the things that dampened our loan growth a little bit where it's about 50% utilization, 50% BSO with a little bit of bond execution sprinkled in there. So people that were carrying slightly higher balances on the commercial side. A lot of them went to the bond market when rates kind of backed off in the last 6 weeks of the year, and that's continued into this year. So I think the particular area that we're excited about as we get into the back end of 2024 is the private equity space. I mean that group of clients has been basically dormant for almost 2 years. There's lots of conversations going on. We're hearing from most of those customers that they expect to get a lot more active, and that will drive utilization on our capital call lines, which is at an all-time low right now. So that's what the real driver is.

是的。我認為，如果你回顧第四季度，會發現一些因素稍微抑制了我們的貸款成長，利用率約為 50%，BSO 為 50%，還有一些債券執行。因此，人們在商業方面的餘額略高。當利率在今年最後六週有所回落時，他們中的許多人進入了債券市場，這種情況一直持續到今年。因此，我認為，當我們進入 2024 年底時，我們感到興奮的特定領域是私募股權領域。我的意思是，這群客戶基本上已經休眠了將近兩年了。有很多談話正在進行。我們從大多數客戶那裡得知，他們希望變得更加活躍，這將提高我們資本呼叫線路的利用率，目前該線路處於歷史最低水平。這就是真正的司機。

Right. Peter, did you have another question?

正確的。彼得，你還有其他問題嗎？

Yes. Just a quick follow-up, though it's helpful. But on just the fee income, you talked about up 6% to 9%. You did mention the pipeline is strong for the capital markets. But just if you could give some color on the puts and takes on the fee income side?

是的。只是快速跟進，儘管它很有幫助。但僅就費用收入而言，您談到了成長 6% 至 9%。您確實提到資本市場的管道很強大。但如果你能在費用收入方面對看跌期權和看跌期權進行一些說明呢？

John.

約翰。

Yes. Just kind of the main drivers of that. It's basically a continuation of some of the trends we're seeing in the fourth quarter of 2023, where capital markets is starting to pick up again. Pipelines are incredibly strong. And I think the lead driver seems to be M&A advisory, that's picked up in 4Q, not only due to seasonal factors, but just in terms of a more constructive backdrop. We're also seeing, as you get in out into '24, pick up in underwriting, both on the bond side and on the equity side. And so -- and solid contributions from global markets as well. But -- so those are some of the drivers as we see them beginning in Q4, continuing in Q1 with excellent pipelines and playing out over the rest of '24.

是的。只是其中的主要驅動因素。這基本上是我們在 2023 年第四季看到的一些趨勢的延續，資本市場開始再次回升。管道非常堅固。我認為主要驅動力似乎是併購諮詢，這一點在第四季度有所回升，不僅是由於季節性因素，而且是由於更具建設性的背景。我們也看到，隨著進入 24 世紀，債券和股票方面的承銷業務都會增加。因此，全球市場也做出了堅實的貢獻。但是，這些是我們看到的一些驅動因素，它們從第四季度開始，在第一季繼續以出色的管道發揮作用，並在 24 年剩餘的時間裡發揮作用。

Yes. you might add something on wealth, Brendan, I don't know if you want to -- but we expect continued really strong growth on wealth fees. We do. And it's been a year of slow and steady progression continuing to get all-time highs in the wealth management business. But given the private bank investment, 2024 is going to be a really important year. We're out in the market looking to attract a lot of talent. We've made a number of key hires in Q4, both on the leadership side as well as at the adviser side. And so getting the ecosystem of the bankers that we hired in the summer, connected with top and market wealth managers is critical for us.

是的。你可能會在財富方面添加一些內容，布倫丹，我不知道你是否願意——但我們預計財富費用將持續強勁增長。我們的確是。這是財富管理業務緩慢而穩定發展並繼續創下歷史新高的一年。但考慮到私人銀行的投資，2024 年將是非常重要的一年。我們正在市場上尋求吸引大量人才。我們在第四季度招募了許多關鍵人員，包括領導階層和顧問。因此，讓我們在夏天僱用的銀行家的生態系統與頂級和市場財富管理機構建立聯繫對我們來說至關重要。

We're rebranding the platform to Citizen private wealth management to connect the private banking and wealth side together hand in glove. And so we do expect steady and significant growth out of wealth over time, really connected into the private banking ecosystem. So we're pleased with the momentum, but there's a lot more to come, and we hope if we execute well on the private banking initiative.

我們正在將該平台重新命名為“公民私人財富管理”，將私人銀行和財富緊密聯繫在一起。因此，我們確實預期隨著時間的推移，財富將穩定且顯著地增長，並真正與私人銀行生態系統聯繫起來。因此，我們對這一勢頭感到滿意，但還有更多的事情要做，我們希望我們能夠很好地執行私人銀行業務計劃。

And just on mortgage banking.

就抵押貸款銀行業務而言。

Yes. So John hit some highlights on Q4 for mortgage. Production was down a bit. Our underlying servicing business was up modestly, and then our hedge performance was down over a big quarter in Q3 and Q4. I think as we look to the outlook going forward, we obviously announced the exit of the wholesale mortgage business. If you rewind the clock back to prior to the Franklin American acquisition. We were under scale in mortgage, and really, we're trying to diversify the business. We've done that really successfully in hindsight. It was an incredibly well-timed acquisition, and we performed exceptionally well through the COVID years.

是的。因此，約翰談到了第四季度抵押貸款的一些亮點。產量略有下降。我們的基礎服務業務小幅成長，然後我們的對沖業績在第三季和第四季大幅下降。我認為，當我們展望未來的前景時，我們顯然宣布退出批發抵押貸款業務。如果你把時間倒回富蘭克林美國公司收購之前。我們的抵押貸款規模不足，實際上，我們正​​在努力實現業務多元化。事後看來，我們確實成功做到了這一點。這是一次非常及時的收購，我們在新冠疫情期間表現得異常出色。

And as we exit that period of time and look forward, our MSR concentration versus peers is really strong. It's a little bit on the high side. We looked at our business model and said wholesale mortgage, we're one of the only lot lenders in there. The margins were really challenged and the outlook for each don't necessarily suggest a boom lot of refi activity in the medium term. And so wholesale mortgage being a nonrelationship business, we decided that it was time to move on, and we're committed to correspondent. We're really committed to retail mortgage for relationship lending.

當我們退出這段時間並展望未來時，我們的 MSR 集中度與同行相比確實很強。有點偏高。我們研究了我們的商業模式，並表示批發抵押貸款，我們是那裡唯一的批量貸款機構之一。利潤率確實受到了挑戰，而且兩者的前景並不一定表明中期再融資活動會出現大量繁榮。因此，批發抵押貸款是一項非關係業務，我們決定是時候繼續前進了，我們致力於通訊員。我們確實致力於關係貸款的零售抵押貸款。

So -- but despite rates coming down, we did expect the mortgage market to be, call it, a $2 trillion originations platform in 2024, which is about a normalized mortgage market. So we should see some modest uptick in originations. And with rates coming back down, the servicing business might see a little bit of offsetting pressure. So I think we feel like we're in the right zone in terms of mortgage performance with where we're at Q4 within a range of normal volatility. And we're going to make sure that we're executing on driving up returns higher and making sure we're allocating balance sheet to deep relationship-based customers, whether it's in the private bank or in the core retail business, to continue to offer that product to our very best customers.

因此，儘管利率下降，我們確實預計抵押貸款市場將在 2024 年成為一個 2 兆美元的發起平台，這相當於一個標準化的抵押貸款市場。因此，我們應該會看到原創數量略有增加。隨著利率回落，服務業務可能會遇到一些抵銷壓力。因此，我認為我們感覺就抵押貸款表現而言，我們處於正確的區域，第四季度處於正常波動範圍內。我們將確保我們正在執行更高的回報，並確保我們將資產負債表分配給基於深厚關係的客戶，無論是私人銀行還是核心零售業務，以繼續將產品提供給我們最好的客戶。

Yes, to wrap all that up. In '24, we do expect volumes to improve as well as margins. So that's another tailwind as you get into next year in terms of the production business.

是的，總結一下這一切。 24 年，我們確實預期銷量和利潤率都會提高。因此，就生產業務而言，這是另一個進入明年的順風車。

Next question will come from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Can you guys elaborate a bit on the expense cuts that you did this quarter in terms of where they're coming from? And Obviously, you're leaning in on the private bank, but kind of x that. How do you make sure you're not cutting too much during these initiatives and the ones that you've had in prior years?

你們能否詳細說明一下本季你們削減的開支的來源？顯然，你傾向於私人銀行，但有點像那樣。您如何確保在這些舉措以及前幾年的舉措中不會削減太多資金？

Yes. I'll start off here. But I think we have been very, very diligent in kind of looking at staffing levels across all the different activities in the bank, and seeking efficiencies. There's always the playbook where if you kind of eliminate your bottom x percent of performers and redistribute some of the work that you can kind of run a little leaner and so we've gone through that exercise to make sure that we won't be caught short in any areas.

是的。我將從這裡開始。但我認為我們一直非常非常努力地關注銀行所有不同活動的人員配備水平，並尋求效率。總是會有這樣的劇本，如果你消除了表現最差的 x% 並重新分配一些工作，你就可以精簡一點，所以我們已經完成了這個練習，以確保我們不會被抓住任何領域都很短。

We carved out important areas like risk and audit and some of the control areas. So they were spared kind of from taking reductions. And then we also carved out the areas that are important investment activities. And so the roll-up of all that math comes to a relatively modest number, 3.5% of total staff count, but I think we're kind of lean and mean and in good fighting shape as we enter into 2024.

我們劃分了風險和審計等重要領域以及一些控制領域。因此，他們在某種程度上免於削減開支。然後我們也劃分了重要投資活動的領域。因此，所有這些數學數據的匯總，得出的數字相對較小，佔員工總數的 3.5%，但我認為，進入 2024 年，我們的團隊規模已經變得精幹、精幹，並且處於良好的戰鬥狀態。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just separately, the deposit growth that you've had from the private bank, have you disclosed what that rate is I think a 1/3 of them are (inaudible), but what's the blended rate? And I guess, are you using promotions, whether it's rate or other stuff to help grow those.

好的。這很有幫助。然後，單獨地，您從私人銀行獲得的存款成長，您是否披露了該利率是多少，我認為其中 1/3 是（聽不清楚），但混合利率是多少？我想，你是否使用促銷活動，無論是價格還是其他東西來幫助成長這些。

Yes. We haven't really talked about that, but I mean, I think we should look at it is that this is accretive to the low-cost profile top of the house, when you look at DDA and operating accounts, it's extremely attractive mix that we've seen come in early days. So we're extremely encouraged about our expectations for this to be a very sort of solid franchise deposit fully funding our loan growth that we expect on that side of -- on the other side of the balance sheet. So Yes, I would say the mix is quite good and overall cost, very attractive and accretive to talk about.

是的。我們還沒有真正討論過這一點，但我的意思是，我認為我們應該考慮的是，這對低成本的高層建築來說是增值的，當你看看DDA 和營運帳戶時，它是非常有吸引力的組合，我們在早期就已經看到了。因此，我們對我們的期望感到非常鼓舞，因為我們期望這是一種非常可靠的特許經營存款，為我們預期在資產負債表的另一側的貸款增長提供充分的資金。所以，是的，我想說，這種組合非常好，整體成本非常有吸引力，值得談論。

Yes. If there's a Slide 11, Matt, that lays out a pie chart of the character of the deposits. But DDA and then checking with interest, which are very low cost, roughly 40%, very little term and most of that in kind of liquid savings and money market with no promotions that are outside the norm of over offering to the core franchise.

是的。馬特，如果有一張投影片 11，它會列出存款特徵的圓餅圖。但是 DDA，然後檢查利息，成本非常低，大約 40%，期限很少，其中大部分是流動儲蓄和貨幣市場，沒有超出向核心特許經營權提供超額優惠的規範的促銷活動。

Your next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 John Pancari 和 Evercore 的對話。

Just a couple of questions on the credit front. Charge-offs came in at around 46 basis points in the fourth quarter, you expect an average of about 50 basis points overall in 2024. Can you maybe talk to us about where you expect losses to peak and to hit that 50 bps for the full year? And -- and what gives you confidence that they can remain there? And then similarly, on the reserve front, I know you added to reserves in the fourth quarter, but you implied -- you could see releases in 2024. What do you need to see to drive the releases?

只是關於信貸方面的幾個問題。第四季的沖銷約為 46 個基點，您預計 2024 年總體平均約為 50 個基點。您能否與我們談談您預計損失在哪裡達到峰值並達到 50 個基點？年？而且──是什麼讓你相信他們可以留在那裡？同樣，在儲備方面，我知道您在第四季度增加了儲備，但您暗示，您可能會在 2024 年看到釋放。您需要看到什麼來推動釋放？

Yes. So I'll start and then John can give some more color. So -- so I think the kind of push that we've seen higher over the course of '23 that could continue a little bit higher into '24. So going from 46 say to 50 is kind of twofold for the most part. One is that CRE General Office is we're watching the maturity wall, and we're on top of all these credits very carefully and we're working them out. And as I said in my opening remarks, a lot of this is fairly predictable. So kind of we can look ahead, 6 months, 9 months, we can kind of anticipate where we might have to do some restructuring as in where we might take charge-offs. And so I think we have good visibility into that.

是的。那我先開始，然後約翰可以提供更多的顏色。因此，我認為我們在 23 年期間看到的那種推動力可能會在 24 年繼續保持更高的水平。所以從 46 說到 50 在很大程度上是雙重的。一是 CRE 總辦公室正在關註成熟度牆，我們非常仔細地掌握所有這些積分，並且正在解決它們。正如我在開場白中所說，其中許多都是可以預見的。因此，我們可以展望未來，6 個月、9 個月，我們可以預測哪些地方可能需要進行一些重組，例如哪些地方可能需要沖銷。所以我認為我們對此有很好的了解。

It's a long process on CRE General Office. I think we'll have this with us all through '24 and likely into '25 as well. But again, the important thing is, I think we're well reserved for it, and it's baked into that charge-off run rate. The second area is really just continued normalization on the consumer side which has been extremely slow and gradual, but they're still slightly better than where we were pre-COVID. And so that will just gently push up as we go forward. And so that would be the other driver.

對華創辦公廳來說，這是一個漫長的過程。我想我們會在整個 24 年都擁有這個，也可能到 25 年。但同樣重要的是，我認為我們已經為此做好了準備，並且它已經融入沖銷運行率中。第二個領域其實只是消費者方面的持續正常化，這是極其緩慢和漸進的，但仍然比新冠疫情前的情況稍好一些。因此，當我們前進時，它會輕輕地推動。那就是另一個司機。

I'd say the good news is that in C&I, we're not really seeing any kind of hotspots. And so we feel that we have a pretty good outlook for broad C&I through 2024. On the question of the ACL is -- this year, we've been consistently building each quarter. And if you get to the scenario where there's likely a soft landing or a very shallow recession, we've put away enough reserves that I think we will be able to start to draw that down. And so time will tell on that, but you can already see that we've been starting to kind of reduce the amount of kind of reserve build from absolute provision over charge-offs in this quarter, it was flat. It was 171/171. And so even if charge-offs can pick up a little bit, I think it's likely that you could see the need for provision building from having provisions exceed charge-offs reduce as we go through the year. I don't know, John, if you want to add any color to that?

我想說的好消息是，在 C&I 中，我們並沒有真正看到任何類型的熱點。因此，我們認為到 2024 年，我們對廣泛的 C&I 的前景相當看好。關於 ACL 的問題是——今年，我們每季都在持續建設。如果你遇到可能出現軟著陸或非常淺的衰退的情況，我們已經儲備了足夠的儲備，我認為我們將能夠開始減少儲備。所以時間會證明這一點，但你已經可以看到，我們已經開始減少本季沖銷的絕對準備金建立的數量，它是持平的。是 171/171。因此，即使沖銷可能會增加，我認為隨著時間的推移，您可能會看到由於準備金超過沖銷而建立準備金的需求會減少。我不知道，約翰，你是否想為此添加一些色彩？

Yes, just a little bit. I think that all makes sense. And I'd say that the drivers of where you want to be with your reserve is we have a relatively conservative economic environment predicted over the horizon, which is a mild to moderate adverse outcome. So that's built in. We think that we're seeing stabilization in terms of the performance of the back book in our loan book. So we see visibility into the charge-off outlook. And then the build which is the other -- could be the other driver of ACL when you're building loans that what we're rotating away from and building into, there's actually a net flat to improved profile in terms of the very high-quality origination front book in the private bank and commercial that we're putting on the portfolio in '24 while other stuff may be a higher ACL load is running off in the back book. So those are the things I would just add to what Bruce said.

是的，只是一點點。我認為這一切都有道理。我想說，你希望儲備金處於何處的驅動因素是，我們預期即將出現相對保守的經濟環境，這是一個輕度到中度的不利結果。所以這是內建的。我們認為，我們的貸款帳簿中的後台帳簿的表現正在趨於穩定。因此，我們可以看到沖銷前景的可見性。然後，另一個構建可能是 ACL 的另一個驅動因素，當你建立貸款時，我們正在轉移和建立貸款，實際上，在非常高的方面，有一個淨平坦可以改善形象。我們在24 年將其放在投資組合中的私人銀行和商業領域的品質起源正面書籍，而其他內容可能是較高的ACL 負載，正在背面書籍中消失。這些就是我要添加到布魯斯所說的內容中的內容。

Great. All right. And then separately, on the capital front, you indicated that you expect to resume buybacks in the first quarter of '24. And maybe if you could help us possibly quantify the pace of buybacks that's fair to assume. Could you be back at that $200 million quarterly rate? Or how should we think about that?

偉大的。好的。另外，在資本方面，您表示預計將在 24 年第一季恢復回購。如果你能幫助我們量化回購的速度，也許這是合理的假設。您能恢復到 2 億美元的季度成長率嗎？或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

Well, at this point, we've given a kind of firm estimate for the first quarter of about $300 million. So -- we probably, with benefit of 2020 hindsight, could have bought some in the fourth quarter, but water under the bridge for 10.6% So we have a little above target capital to kind of play with, if you will, in the first quarter. And then in the first half of the year, we're not going to have much net loan growth. Noncore is going to be running down, and we don't really see the flex in lending coming until the second half in the Private Bank and commercial, as John indicated. So I think the buybacks would tend to be more first half oriented.

到目前為止，我們已經對第一季的收入做出了約 3 億美元的確定估計。 So -- we probably, with benefit of 2020 hindsight, could have bought some in the fourth quarter, but water under the bridge for 10.6% So we have a little above target capital to kind of play with, if you will, in the first四分之一.然後在今年上半年，我們不會有太多的淨貸款成長。非核心業務將會減少，正如約翰指出的那樣，直到下半年我們才真正看到私人銀行和商業銀行的貸款出現彈性。因此，我認為回購往往會更多地以上半年為導向。

But a lot can happen over the course of the year. And so I kind of differ from giving a kind of quarterly run rate, just to say we'll have a solid print in the first quarter and likely more in the second quarter, and then we'll see how the year plays out.

但這一年可能會發生很多事。因此，我與提供季度運行率有所不同，只是說我們將在第一季獲得可靠的結果，並且可能在第二季度獲得更多結果，然後我們將看到這一年的表現。

Yes. And I just would reiterate our capital priorities, our strong dividend. And if we have opportunities to put capital to work, serving clients and driving great really strong risk-adjusted returns. That's our preference. And when that moderates a bit, that's when you see us give it back in the form of buybacks. And so we're in an extremely strong position to be able to have the opportunity...

是的。我只想重申我們的資本優先事項和強勁的股息。如果我們有機會將資本投入工作中，為客戶提供服務並帶來巨大的、非常強勁的風險調整回報。這是我們的偏好。當這種情況稍微緩和時，你會看到我們以回購的形式將其返還。因此，我們處於非常有利的地位，能夠有機會...

And one last add on point to your add-on point is, I would say, I'm really happy to be buying my stock at these levels because we think it's great value.

我要說的是，最後一個附加點是，我真的很高興在這些水平上購買我的股票，因為我們認為它非常有價值。

Well said.

說得好。

We'll go next to the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們將前往 Ebrahim Poonawala 與美國銀行的線路旁。

I guess maybe one question for you, Bruce. As you think about capital deployment, you've been pretty busy last year in terms of the strategic actions. Just wondering where do you see like as you look at investment opportunities for the franchise, are you done for now in terms of putting the big pieces in place? Or how are you thinking about new things and new investments that we could see either on an organic basis, team lift-outs or just outright M&A?

我想也許有一個問題要問你，布魯斯。當您考慮資本部署時，去年您在策略行動方面非常忙碌。只是想知道，當您考慮特許經營權的投資機會時，您在哪裡看到的，您現在已經完成了將大塊落實到位的工作嗎？或者您如何看待新事物和新投資，我們可以在有機基礎上、團隊剝離或直接併購中看到這些新事物和新投資？

Yes. Good question. I would say the orientation right now is for backing our organic initiatives. So we've mentioned the private banks, and we need to continue to invest there to get that off the ground and make it a big success. And we've been investing in the New York marketplace and certainly, to get your brand awareness up as expensive proposition, but we're doing that, and that is showing very good results.

是的。好問題。我想說，現在的方向是支持我們的有機措施。所以我們提到了私人銀行，我們需要繼續在那裡投資，以使其起步並取得巨大成功。我們一直在紐約市場進行投資，當然，為了提高你的品牌知名度，這是一個昂貴的主張，但我們正在這樣做，並且顯示出非常好的結果。

There are certain businesses like payments that are I think going through a lot of change, and that change always presents opportunities. And so making sure that we're investing to position ourselves to deliver for clients and continue to gain share and grow that business. Those are the things that kind of come top of mind that we're very focused on. I think in terms of acquisitions and our fee-based capabilities, we've made significant investments over time in commercial. And so our M&A size and scale is at quite a good level. So we could be selective there. Don't see anything imminent, but there's possibilities that if there's an industry vertical that makes sense, maybe we could do something there.

我認為像支付這樣的某些業務正在經歷很多變化，而這種變化總是會帶來機會。因此，我們要確保我們的投資能夠為客戶提供服務，並繼續獲得份額並發展業務。這些是我們非常關注的首要問題。我認為就收購和我們的收費能力而言，隨著時間的推移，我們在商業領域進行了大量投資。所以我們的併購規模和規模處於相當不錯的水平。所以我們可以在那裡進行選擇性。沒有看到任何迫在眉睫的事情，但如果有一個有意義的垂直行業，也許我們可以在那裡做點什麼。

And then wealth, we've been looking at trying to buy some things. We bought Clarfeld, which has turned out to be a fantastic acquisition. But I think the orientation, the rest of this year is to really go to lift out route and to bring teams onto the platform. And so we're hard at work on that to try to scale up Citizens private wealth. So I would say the franchise is in good shape. There's a lot of initiatives in place that will kind of, I think, have us outperform from a growth standpoint relative to our peers. So I think we can sit back and be selective in terms of deploying capital inorganically.

然後是財富，我們一直在考慮嘗試購買一些東西。我們收購了 Clarfeld，事實證明這是一次非常棒的收購。但我認為，今年剩下的時間裡，我們的方向是真正走出路線，並將團隊帶上平台。因此，我們正在努力擴大公民的私人財富。所以我想說這支球隊狀況良好。我認為，從成長的角度來看，我們已經採取了很多舉措，相對於同行來說，它們的表現會更好。因此，我認為我們可以坐下來，在無機地配置資本方面有選擇性。

That was helpful. And I guess just one follow-up in terms of for whatever reason, when you look at your NII, fee revenue guide in particular, just maybe talk to us around expense flex if some of these things don't play out as expected, should we anticipate some level of like expense offset? Or are you kind of pretty tight given just everything you've done on the cost side?

這很有幫助。我想無論出於什麼原因，當你查看你的國家資訊基礎設施（NII），特別是費用收入指南時，只是一個後續行動，如果其中一些事情沒有按預期進行，也許可以與我們討論費用彈性，應該我們預期會有一定程度的類似費用抵銷？或者考慮到您在成本方面所做的一切，您是否有點緊張？

Yes. I mean, there's always opportunities to look to flex your expense base down. I think we've been pretty hard at it here to get to this level. And I'd say the strategic initiatives offer you some flexibility. But again, if you're looking at the medium term and the longer term to try to scrape to come up with $0.03 to $0.05 or something of that magnitude, if that puts a jeopardy your kind of trajectory on things like private bank, it wouldn't appear to be a really advisable decision to take. So we will always look at that. You know you can trust us to do that. But at this point, we're trying to manage for both near-term delivery. But also with an eye towards the medium term and really getting that ROTCE back into the kind of targeted range.

是的。我的意思是，總是有機會降低你的開支基礎。我認為我們非常努力才達到這個水平。我想說，策略舉措為您提供了一定的靈活性。但同樣，如果你著眼於中期和長期，試圖籌集 0.03 至 0.05 美元或類似數額的資金，如果這會危及你在私人銀行等領域的發展軌跡，那麼它就不會這似乎不是一個真正明智的決定。所以我們會一直關注這一點。您知道您可以相信我們會做到這一點。但目前，我們正在努力管理近期交貨。但也要著眼於中期，真正讓 ROTCE 回到目標範圍。

And your next question will come from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

你的下一個問題將來自斯科特·西弗斯和派珀·桑德勒。

John. I think you've got 5 rate cuts built into the guidance. Just maybe a broad thought on sort of where that balance sheet is geared now? In other words, I guess, more specifically, how would more or fewer cuts impact the NII outlook?

約翰。我認為指導意見中包含了 5 次降息。也許只是對資產負債表現在的定位進行廣泛的思考？換句話說，我想，更具體地說，更多或更少的削減將如何影響國家資訊基礎設施的前景？

Yes. I mean I would say that we're very close to neutral one way or the other, really up or down. And -- but I'd say that I think what's important to the outlook is we have deposit migration continuing to moderate every quarter and it continued this quarter. We expect to continue next quarter. But as our outlook is to get that first cut, it still doesn't completely go away. So we have an expectation the first cut comes in the second quarter, and we get down to around [4.25]. I think that's still holding around. We're looking out the window today in the neighborhood of what the forward curve might indicate. I would say that if there is a slight bias, if the cuts came in a little fewer this year, that would probably be okay. But nevertheless, that first cut is key and a general normalization in an orderly fashion over time is what we think is very good for our balance sheet, again, staying around neutral with maybe a slight benefit if rates come in a tiny bit higher in 2024.

是的。我的意思是，我會說我們非常接近中性，無論是上漲還是下跌。而且 - 但我想說，我認為對前景來說重要的是我們每個季度的存款遷移都繼續放緩，並且本季度仍在繼續。我們預計下個季度將繼續。但由於我們的目標是獲得第一次削減，它仍然沒有完全消失。因此，我們預計第一次削減將在第二季進行，我們將降至 4.25 左右。我認為這一點仍然存在。今天我們正在觀察窗外遠期曲線可能顯示的情況。我想說，如果有一點偏差，如果今年的削減幅度稍微少一些，那可能就沒問題了。但儘管如此，第一次降息是關鍵，隨著時間的推移，有序的整體正常化對我們的資產負債表非常有利，再次保持中性，如果 2024 年利率稍微高一點，可能會有一點好處。

The other aspect to that, too, is just we've had an inverted curve for a long time. So when you think about the medium term, presumably, we get back to a point where there's a normal yield curve, which also benefits NII.

另一方面，我們長期以來一直處於倒掛曲線。因此，當你考慮中期時，我們可能會回到正常殖利率曲線的點，這也有利於NII。

Perfect. And then also, John, for you. So the liquidity -- pardon me, the liquidity building efforts have introduced some noise into the margin rate, even if they've been NII neutral. I guess just looking at the guidance, presumably, that's going to be less of a factor going forward. But just maybe a thought on sort of where we are in that journey.

完美的。約翰，還有你。因此，流動性——請原諒我，流動性建設工作給保證金率帶來了一些噪音，即使它們一直是 NII 中性的。我想，只要看看指導意見，這可能就不再是未來的因素了。但也許只是想一下我們在這段旅程中所處的位置。

Yes. I'd say we're basically -- we've achieved our objectives with respect to our liquidity build is the headline there. And it's -- we believe, a very strong kind of position being around 117% of the requirements for Category 1 banks. I think that matches our objectives. And therefore, going forward, you will not see liquidity being a headwind to net interest.

是的。我想說，我們基本上已經實現了流動性建設的目標，這是那裡的頭條新聞。我們相信，這是一個非常強大的地位，大約是 1 類銀行要求的 117%。我認為這符合我們的目標。因此，展望未來，您將不會看到流動性成為淨利息的阻力。

Yes, I think that was something we were talking about in the back half of the year. It affected us in Q3. It affected us in Q4. If you actually look at, I think, one of the dialogues on these calls the way back, are we going to exit the year close to 3% underlying. Well, we actually did do that. The underlying performance on our NIM was quite good. It only dropped 3 basis points, which is showing up well relative to everybody's who's reported so far, but that liquidity build, which is neutral to NII took us down another 9. So we end up exiting closer to [2.90%] then to the [3%] but that liquidity build is [done]. So we can just focus on not having that -- exercising that from the conversation and just focusing on what the underlying drivers are from here on out.

是的，我認為這是我們下半年討論的事情。它影響了我們第三季。它在第四季影響了我們。我想，如果你真的看看這些對話中的一個，我們是否會以接近 3% 的基礎利率退出這一年。嗯，我們確實這麼做了。我們的 NIM 的基本表現非常好。它只下降了3 個基點，相對於迄今為止報告的每個人來說，情況都很好，但流動性的增加（對NII 來說是中性的）又使我們下降了9 個基點。因此，我們最終退出時接近[2.90%]，然後接近[3%] 但流動性建設已經[完成]。因此，我們可以專注於不這樣做——從對話中練習這一點，並從現在開始關注潛在的驅動因素。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自肯·烏斯丁 (Ken Usdin) 與傑弗里斯 (Jefferies) 的對話。

Just 1 follow-up. You mentioned the PPNR bottoming in the second quarter. I'm just wondering, do you expect NII to bottom coincident with that? Or would there be a slight timing disconnect based on how the swaps work through?

只有 1 個後續行動。您提到PPNR在第二季觸底。我只是想知道，您預計 NII 會同時觸底嗎？或者，根據互換的運作方式，會出現輕微的時間脫節嗎？

Yes. I mean I think that is the driver. Basically, that we are looking at NII being -- that [75%] of our revenue. So yes, the NII is going to bottom in that quarter as well.

是的。我的意思是我認為那是司機。基本上，我們所關注的 NII 占我們收入的 [75%]。所以，是的，NII 也將在該季度觸底。

But in Q3, Ken, then you'd have other things kicking in, like fee growth, strong loan growth starting to kick in. And so even though the swap is incremental forward starting swaps then I think you'd have to look at the whole dynamic around what we expect to see in the business performance that would allow us to absorb that.

但在第三季度，肯，然後你會看到其他事情開始發生，例如費用增長、強勁的貸款增長開始出現。因此，即使掉期是增量遠期起始掉期，我認為你也必須考慮圍繞著我們期望在業務績效中看到的整個動態，這將使我們能夠吸收這一點。

Yes, NIM (inaudible) troughs in 2Q.

是的，NIM（聽不清楚）在第二季出現低谷。

I'm sorry, John, can you just clarify it again, I didn't want to speak over.

對不起，約翰，你能再澄清一下嗎，我不想再說了。

Yes. And I think we were mentioning that the NIM trough is 3Q -- but the PPNR NII trough is in 2Q.

是的。我認為我們提到 NIM 低谷是在第三季度，但 PPNR NII 低谷是在第二季度。

Okay. Got it. And then just looking out at the longer-term guidance you gave, just talking about the 3.25, 3.40 medium-term NIM range. It seems like that most of that can be gotten from the 3 buckets that you show just getting curing from the fourth quarter level. And I see that you put in a 3.25 end of '25 Fed funds rate. So I'm just wondering how you expect deposit costs and just beta to traject. And I know there's a lot of moving parts in there, too, because of the growth that you're expecting as well and mix changes. But just can you maybe just start by just talking about if you're getting to the low 50s on the way up, just how that expects to act and influences that medium-term NIM range.

好的。知道了。然後看看你給予的長期指導，只是談論 3.25、3.40 的中期淨利差範圍。看起來大部分都可以從你展示的 3 個從第四季開始固化的​​桶中獲得。我看到您將 25 年末聯邦基金利率定為 3.25。所以我只是想知道你對存款成本和貝塔值的預期如何。我知道其中也有很多變化的部分，因為您也期望成長和混合變化。但你可以先談談你是否在上升過程中達到了 50 多歲的低點，以及它預計將如何發揮作用並影響中期淨息差範圍。

Yes, it's a big driver. I mean I think the big puts and takes there. I mean you've got the swap portfolio, which is a big tailwind as we've talked about. But if you go over to the deposit side of things, we are looking at deposit migration stabilizing around mid-24% after that first cut in May. You see deposit migration stabilizing. And then as cuts continue, we start flipping to down beta type of expectations versus the up beta. And we look at the early 2000s as being instructive for a lot of this, where that tightening -- that loosening cycle or rate cutting cycle would imply a 35% to 40% down beta for the first, call it, 100 to 150 basis points. And so that's a good -- I think yardstick to think through our expectation that in the early part of the cycle, our down beta will be less than the full up beta, so our full up beta is low 50s, but nevertheless, we're going to get big contributions from down beta, and that will grow over time, getting close to where the up beta ended up.

是的，這是一個很大的驅動力。我的意思是，我認為那裡有大量的看跌期權和看跌期權。我的意思是，你已經有了掉期投資組合，正如我們所討論的，這是一個很大的推動力。但如果你關注存款方面，我們預計存款遷移在 5 月首次降息後穩定在 24% 左右。你會看到存款遷移趨於穩定。然後，隨著削減的繼續，我們開始轉向下調 Beta 型預期，而不是上調 Beta 型。我們認為 2000 年代初期對許多事情都有啟發意義，其中的緊縮——寬鬆週期或降息週期將意味著第一個貝塔係數下降 35% 至 40%，稱之為 100 至 150 個基點。所以這是一個很好的標準——我認為衡量我們預期的標準是，在周期的早期，我們的下調貝塔值將低於完整的貝塔值，所以我們的完整貝塔值低於50，但儘管如此，我們'我們將從下測試版中獲得巨大的貢獻，並且隨著時間的推移，這種貢獻會不斷增長，接近上測試版的最終結果。

And your next question will come from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

您的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

I just had 1 follow-up question. Putting all your answers together, John and Bruce about the outlook for 2024 and the underlying dynamics of net interest income, it seems to me that if we put together what you just said to Ken about deposit betas. In Slide 23, that despite the exit rate of your net interest margin forecasted to be 85 in the fourth quarter, based on everything that you've told us, it seems like you'll see a 3 handle in terms of that underlying NIM that Bruce discussed in 2025. Is that a good bridge to thinking about where you're exiting in '24 and then that medium-term range that you gave us?

我只有 1 個後續問題。將約翰和布魯斯關於 2024 年前景以及淨利息收入的潛在動態的所有答案放在一起，在我看來，如果我們將你剛才對肯說的有關存款貝塔的內容放在一起。在幻燈片 23 中，儘管第四季度的淨息差退出率預計為 85，但根據您告訴我們的一切，您似乎會看到基礎 NIM 為 3 的手柄，即Bruce 在2025 年進行了討論。這是一個很好的橋樑，可以幫助您思考24 年的退出位置以及您給我們的中期範圍嗎？

Well, I would say, well, we're exiting '24 at 2.85. We've indicated that's where the fourth quarter of '23 is going to -- fourth quarter of '24 will be. And so that's headed to the 3.25 to 3.40 range. And so you would see us crossing that 3% level in '25 sometime on the way to 3.25.

好吧，我想說，好吧，我們將以 2.85 退出 24 年。我們已經指出，這就是 23 年第四季的情況 - 24 年第四季的情況。因此，該值將達到 3.25 至 3.40 的範圍。因此，您會看到我們在 25 年的某個時候跨越了 3% 的水平，最終達到 3.25。

And your next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

你的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的傑拉德·卡西迪。

Bruce, you guys have done a great job from when you went public to where you are today in transforming this company. So I'm curious on your medium-term outlook for ROTCE on the improvement, you highlight that the private bank, you're targeting a 20% to 24% ROTCE. Can you share with us the mix of how you get there. Meaning what percentage of revenue do you think you need to reach from fees versus net interest income -- and then also what kind of pretax margin do you think you'll need to get to that 20% to 24% target?

布魯斯，從上市到今天，你們在公司轉型方面做得非常出色。因此，我對你們對 ROTCE 改善的中期前景感到好奇，你們強調說，私人銀行的 ROTCE 目標是 20% 至 24%。您能與我們分享一下您是如何實現這一目標的嗎？這意味著您認為您需要從費用與淨利息收入中獲得多少百分比的收入，然後您認為您需要什麼樣的稅前利潤率才能達到 20% 至 24% 的目標？

Yes. Maybe I'll just start off with that, Gerard. It's John. I mean, I think our fees to total revenues are in the neighborhood of 25%. I'd say, over the medium term, you're going to see that migrate closer to 30%. And that would be consistent with the balance sheet optimization efforts where all of the capital we're putting to work on the front book, we would have relationship opportunities with attractive deposit and fee-based opportunities associated with it at a much greater rate than what we're seeing running off in the back book. And so that's going to drive that fee percentage up closer to 30%.

是的。也許我就從這個開始吧，傑拉德。是約翰。我的意思是，我認為我們的費用佔總收入的 25% 左右。我想說，從中期來看，您將看到這一比例接近 30%。這將與資產負債表優化工作一致，在資產負債表優化工作中，我們將所有資本投入到前台，我們將擁有與有吸引力的存款和基於費用的機會相關的關係機會，其速度比以前的要快得多。我們在後面的書裡看到了逃跑的情況。因此，這將使該費用百分比接近 30%。

And -- and I think that the returns that we expect from a, call it, the ROTCE return that you're seeing in the medium term is consistent with a return on tangible assets that's north of 1%. So you see that getting closer to 125 basis points as a way to think about what the returns are on the asset side.

而且我認為，我們所期望的中期回報率（稱之為 ROTCE 回報率）與超過 1% 的有形資產回報率是一致的。因此，您會看到，接近 125 個基點是考慮資產方面回報的一種方法。

John, you're answering at the comprehensive company on that MTO page, I think, Gerard, is focused more specifically on the private bank mix. But there, I would say, it will build over time, the fee percentage as we kind of get the wealth cross-sell. But we should at least be at kind of where we are today in 75-25. And then I think there's kind of upside from that over time. And I do think the spread on the private bank assets is very significant. Today, given the high percentage of low-cost deposits in there. We haven't really seen the loans come on in size yet. But generally, capital call lines tend to be priced with a nice return. And I think some of the other business lending and HELOCs and things that we maintain our price discipline and achieve a good spread there as well. So I think if you looked at kind of mature private banking models to have a 20% to 25% return on equity is realistic. I don't know, Brendan, if you want to add to that at all?

約翰，你在 MTO 頁面上回答的是一家綜合性公司，我認為傑拉德更具體地關注私人銀行組合。但我想說，隨著時間的推移，當我們獲得財富交叉銷售時，費用百分比將會逐漸增加。但我們至少應該達到今天 75-25 的水平。然後我認為隨著時間的推移，這會帶來一些好處。我確實認為私人銀行資產的利差非常大。今天，考慮到那裡的低成本存款比例很高。我們還沒有真正看到貸款的規模。但一般來說，資本認購額度的定價往往會帶來不錯的回報。我認為其他一些商業貸款和 HELOC 以及我們維持價格紀律並在那裡實現良好利差的東西。所以我認為，如果你看看成熟的私人銀行模式，股本回報率達到 20% 到 25% 是現實的。我不知道，布倫丹，你是否想補充一點？

I think it's well said. So I won't repeat it, I just would reiterate that I think the performance in Q4 is in line with what we would have hoped for in terms of the financial profile to drive that type of return over time, obviously, more loan growth on the come, and a lot of it will come down to our ability to drive wealth at scale and recall our targets end of 2025 are $11 billion in deposits, $9 billion in loans and $10 billion in AUM. So if we deliver that profile, in kind of the expense composition, the profitability profile we're seeing so far is aligned with that return. So we're going to work hard to deliver it and hopefully, our performance from Q4 sustains in the first half.

我覺得說得很好。所以我不會重複，我只是重申，我認為第四季度的表現符合我們在財務狀況方面所希望的，隨著時間的推移，推動這種類型的回報，顯然，更多的貸款增長未來，很大程度上將取決於我們大規模推動財富的能力，並回顧我們到2025 年底的目標是存款110 億美元、貸款90 億美元和資產管理規模100 億美元。因此，如果我們以費用構成的形式提供該概況，那麼我們迄今為止看到的盈利概況與該回報是一致的。因此，我們將努力實現這一目標，並希望我們第四季的表現能夠在上半年保持不變。

Very good. And then following up, Bruce, maybe some thoughts on -- from your perspective on what we might see in this Basel III Endgame. Obviously, there's a lot of talk about scaling it back and maybe it's going to be a delayed implementation because of all the changes is a big focus, as you know, as we all know on the operating risk in the capital markets businesses. But for the regional banks, it seems like it's more the numerator, including the unrealized bond losses in the available-for-sale portfolio. Any thoughts from for Citizens, how you might benefit from a scale back of what was initially proposed and what will be the final proposal?

非常好。接下來，布魯斯，也許從你的角度來看我們在巴塞爾協議 III 終局之戰中可能看到的一些想法。顯然，有很多關於縮減規模的討論，也許會推遲實施，因為所有的變化都是一個重點，正如你所知，我們都知道資本市場業務的營運風險。但對於區域銀行來說，它似乎更像是分子，包括可供出售投資組合中未實現的債券損失。對於公民來說，您有什麼想法，您可以如何從最初提議的縮減中受益以及最終的提議是什麼？

Yes. I would say that for banks of our size, the things that we've focused the most on have been RWA increases to certain lending activities that would potentially reduce the supply, the appetite to lend in those areas because it wouldn't -- it would erode the economics. So things like mortgage lending to lower-income people or credit card lines attracting capital and small business lending, attracting more capital. I think those flaws in the proposal have been well chronicled. And even though they don't result in a meaningful RWA inflation for us. I mean we're stewards of the U.S. economy, and we'd like to see those things adjusted.

是的。我想說的是，對於我們這種規模的銀行來說，我們最關注的事情是某些貸款活動的 RWA 增加，這可能會減少供應、這些領域的貸款興趣，因為它不會——會侵蝕經濟。因此，向低收入者提供抵押貸款或吸引資本的信用卡額度以及吸引更多資本的小型企業貸款等。我認為提案中的這些缺陷已經被詳細記錄。即使它們不會為我們帶來有意義的 RWA 通膨。我的意思是，我們是美國經濟的管理者，我們希望看到這些事情得到調整。

That's been for kind of banks our size. I think the kind of main thing at top of the list. I think the operational risk kind of increases affect the bigger banks more. But Nonetheless, they seem to have a fairly big pump on the scale. And so that likely, I think, we'll have a rethink and maybe those come down to some extent, that would benefit everybody, but probably the big banks more than banks like ourselves.

這適用於我們這種規模的銀行。我認為這是最重要的事情。我認為營運風險的增加對大銀行的影響更大。但儘管如此，他們的規模似乎相當大。因此，我認為，我們可能會重新思考，也許這些會在某種程度上下降，這將使每個人受益，但可能是大銀行比像我們這樣的銀行受益更多。

Maybe just to add -- just a quick add to that is that even if it had gone -- even if the Basel III Endgame had gone through as initially proposed, a very modest impact from an RWA standpoint on us. And as it relates to AOCI, as we mentioned earlier, we are expecting that likely [survives.] But in our case, we're at 9% by deducting the AOCI opt-in. And that's an incredibly strong number. So we sort of think about what's going on there is really behind us and really in the run rate, if you will, when it comes to the...

也許只是補充一下——只是快速補充一下，即使它已經消失了——即使巴塞爾協議III終局之戰已經按照最初的提議進行了，從RWA的角度來看，對我們的影響非常有限。正如我們之前提到的，由於它與 AOCI 相關，我們預計這種情況可能會[繼續存在]。但在我們的例子中，扣除 AOCI 選擇加入後，我們的比例為 9%。這是一個令人難以置信的強勁數字。因此，如果你願意的話，我們會思考我們背後真正發生的事情，以及運行率中真正發生的事情，當談到...

I think that's a good point that John just raised, Gerard, is that -- given the strength of our capital position, both pre and post AOCI, we can absorb any of these regulatory capital impacts. But really not worried about them. Many of our peer banks are still kind of catching up and getting in position and having to kind of hold back on capital distribution, which is really not something that we're worried about given this capital strength. So we're more able to kind of play offense and not have to play catch-up, which is a good position to be in.

傑拉德，我認為約翰剛才提出的一個很好的觀點是——考慮到我們在 AOCI 之前和之後的資本狀況的實力，我們可以吸收任何這些監管資本的影響。但真的不擔心他們。我們的許多同行銀行仍在追趕並就位，並且不得不抑制資本分配，鑑於這種資本實力，這確實不是我們擔心的事情。所以我們更有能力進攻，而不必追趕，這是一個很好的位置。

Absolutely. In fact, Bruce, you bring up a good point in your guidance on the medium term for the total company, legacy core ROTCE of 15% to 17%. You guys pointed out significant share repurchases. Should we interpret that to be a combined dividend payout and buyback ratio of 100% of earnings, then once we get the final rules and we're all set to go. Is that a fair number to put for you guys because you are well topline.

絕對地。事實上，Bruce，您在整個公司的中期指導中提出了一個很好的觀點，即傳統核心 ROTCE 為 15% 至 17%。你們指出了重大的股票回購。如果我們將其解釋為股息支付和收益的 100% 回購率的結合，那麼一旦我們得到最終規則，我們就可以開始了。這對你們來說是一個公平的數字嗎，因為你們的收入很好。

Gerard, if you go back to the time of the IPO and that number has been over 100 and under 100 and all over the place, but if you just looked at like a 10-year average, almost 10 years, it's about 75%. And so having enough capital to actually grow your business and lend to customers. You have to certainly work that into the equation. But to the extent as John stated the priorities, dividend is, number one, using capital to support organic growth, principally in the loan book and then repurchasing shares. I think if we get our returns into that level, we'll be returning high levels of our earnings back to shareholders, both through the dividend and through consistent share repurchases. And we should be viewed as a capital return story.

傑拉德，如果你回到 IPO 的時候，這個數字一直在 100 多、100 以下，到處都有，但如果你看一下 10 年的平均值，幾乎 10 年，大約是 75%。因此，擁有足夠的資本來實際發展您的業務並向客戶提供貸款。你必須將其代入等式中。但就約翰所說的優先事項而言，股息是第一位的，利用資本來支持有機成長，主要是在貸款簿上，然後回購股票。我認為，如果我們的回報達到這個水平，我們將透過股利和持續的股票回購將高水準的收益返還給股東。我們應該被視為一個資本回報的故事。

Yes. I think we had a 95% capital return performance in '23. So it's in that 75 to 100 range over time.

是的。我認為我們 23 年的資本報酬率為 95%。所以隨著時間的推移，它在 75 到 100 的範圍內。

Your next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞（Manan Gosalia）。

Just a follow-up to the down beta question on deposits. A few of your peers have talked about how commercial deposit rates are coming down or would come down quickly, but there's likely to be some more pressure on the consumer side continuing from here. They've talked about basically consumers still moving towards higher rate accounts. And given that you do have a big core consumer deposit franchise, I was wondering what you're seeing right now and what your expectations are on consumer behavior as rates come down?

只是存款問題的後續測試。你們的一些同行已經談到商業存款利率將如何下降或將迅速下降，但從這裡開始，消費者方面可能會繼續面臨更多壓力。他們談到基本上消費者仍在轉向更高利率的帳戶。鑑於您確實擁有大型核心消費者存款特許經營權，我想知道您現在看到了什麼以及隨著利率下降您對消費者行為的期望是什麼？

Brendan, do you want to take that?

布倫丹，你想接受這個嗎？

Yes, sure, I'll take that. Well, let me start big picture and then give you a little color on Q4 and expectations. So we've been talking for years that the investments we've made in transforming the consumer deposit base have truly been transformational for our performance. And I think that's what we're seeing here now that our consumer book is performing. At a worst case peer-like, -- but certainly, there are signs that we may be outperforming peers when we look at benchmarking our DDA balances were almost 300 basis points better than peer average this year and -- or last year rather, in 2023.

是的，當然，我會接受的。好吧，讓我先從大局開始，然後再跟大家介紹一下第四季的情況和期望。因此，我們多年來一直在談論，我們在改變消費者存款基礎方面所做的投資確實對我們的業績產生了變革。我認為這就是我們現在所看到的消費者圖書的表現。在最壞的情況下，與同行類似，但可以肯定的是，有跡象表明，當我們對今年的DDA 餘額進行基準測試時，我們的DDA 餘額比同行平均水平高出近300 個基點，或者說去年，我們的表現可能優於 同行。2023 年。

And our net deposit growth was actually a couple of hundred basis points better than peers as well, while our betas have been modestly better. So you look at that equation, better deposit growth, better beta, really grounded with an outperformance in DDA. That's a good place to be. And I expect, regardless of what consumer behavior conditions we face in 2024 for our relative outperformance to sustain, and we're seeing those signs already. Having said that, on an absolute basis, what we saw in Q4 was a slowdown in consumers' deterioration and excess stimulus. It's still going on a path of normalizing. So we're still seeing that continue. But the pace of normalization has begun to slow. And I think we should see that sustain in the first half of the year as rates start to tick down.

我們的淨存款成長其實也比同業高出幾百個基點，而我們的貝塔值則稍好一些。所以你看看這個等式，更好的存款成長，更好的貝塔值，真正基於 DDA 的優異表現。那是個好地方。我預計，無論我們在 2024 年面臨什麼樣的消費者行為條件，我們的相對優異表現都會持續下去，而且我們已經看到了這些跡象。話雖如此，從絕對值來看，我們在第四季看到的是消費者惡化和過度刺激的放緩。它仍在正常化的道路上。所以我們仍然看到這種情況繼續下去。但正常化的步伐已經開始放緩。我認為隨著利率開始下降，我們應該會看到這種情況在今年上半年得以維持。

On the interest-bearing side, competitive dynamics haven't really shifted yet. It's still fairly aggressive out there on CDs and money markets, but we believe we've got more levers than most with Citizens Access as a platform where we can contain interest-bearing growth on the higher cost side, not sort of put contagion, so to speak, into the full retail bank to reprice all of our interest-bearing deposits. Gives us a real competitive advantage, and we're thinking about the private bank in some ways in a similar way. So we've got all the tools to compete. We do expect, if the rate curve follows as projected interest-bearing deposits on the consumer side will start to come down as well. And we're starting to think about mix of balances.

在生息方面，競爭動態尚未真正轉變。在CD 和貨幣市場上，它仍然相當激進，但我們相信，我們比大多數人擁有更多的槓桿，以Citizens Access 作為平台，我們可以在較高成本方面遏制生息增長，而不是看跌期權蔓延，所以可以說，進入完整的零售銀行來重新定價我們所有的計息存款。為我們帶來了真正的競爭優勢，我們正在以類似的方式在某些方面考慮私人銀行。所以我們擁有所有競爭工具。我們確實預計，如果利率曲線遵循預期的消費者方面的計息存款也將開始下降。我們開始考慮平衡的組合。

We've got a lot of CDs that potentially can roll over here in the first part of the year that we'll be looking to have more balance and put some of those balances into liquid savings to give us more levers to manage down betas over the course of the year. So all that is to say, I feel pretty good about how we are situated. We're starting to see good dynamics with the consumer expect to continue, and I've got a lot of confidence that we'll outperform peers in whatever environment comes our way.

我們有很多 CD 可能會在今年上半年在這裡展期，我們將尋求更多的餘額，並將其中一些餘額放入流動儲蓄中，以便我們有更多的槓桿來管理貝塔值這一年的歷程。總而言之，我對我們的處境感覺很好。我們開始看到消費者期望繼續保持良好的動態，而且我非常有信心，無論我們遇到什麼環境，我們都會超越同行。

Great. Great. And then just to follow up on credit, given the move lower in long-end rates, can you talk about anything you're seeing in the non-office CRE portfolio, like maybe in multifamily how do things like the debt service coverage ratios look today versus a couple of months ago? And how do you expect that to trend given where the forward curve is right now?

偉大的。偉大的。然後，為了跟進信貸，考慮到長期利率的下降，您能否談談您在非辦公室 CRE 投資組合中看到的任何內容，例如在多戶住宅中，償債覆蓋率之類的情況如何？今天與幾個月前相比？考慮到目前遠期曲線的位置，您預計這一趨勢將如何？

Yes. I would just answer broadly that we feel good about the multi-family portfolio. It's characteristics. It's relatively small loan sizes, a lot of fixed term loans, good diversification geographically. And so we, I think, felt that lost content there was going to be quite low. But now obviously, with rates ticking down, that provides more kind of air in terms of the distance between the debt service coverage ratio and kind of cash flows. And so we feel that it's helpful, but we weren't worried all that much previously. So anyway, that's...

是的。我只是籠統地回答說，我們對多戶型投資組合感覺良好。是有特點。貸款規模相對較小，定期貸款較多，地理多元化程度良好。因此，我認為我們認為丟失的內容會非常低。但現在顯然，隨著利率的下降，就償債覆蓋率和現金流之間的距離而言，這提供了更多的空間。所以我們覺得這很有幫助，但我們之前並沒有那麼擔心。所以無論如何，這就是...

Yes. I would just hasten to add that it's very different than general office. I mean the capital markets are still active. -- in the context of buying and selling multifamily properties, and that will just provide further tailwind to that activity.

是的。我想趕緊補充一點，它與一般辦公室有很大不同。我的意思是資本市場仍然活躍。 ——在購買和出售多戶型房產的背景下，這只會為活動提供進一步的推動力。

There is a lot of liquidity there.

那裡有大量的流動性。

Yes, there's liquidity there. Buyers and sellers are still transacting. So it's just a very different night and day situation compared to general office and certainly, rates, which won't have much of an impact maybe on the general office. We'll have -- very much have a positive impact on the multifamily construct that was already okay to begin with.

是的，那裡有流動性。買家和賣家仍在進行交易。因此，與普通辦公室相比，這只是一個非常不同的晝夜情況，當然還有費率，這可能不會對普通辦公室產生太大影響。我們將對多戶住宅結構產生非常正面的影響，而這在一開始就已經可以了。

And there are no further questions in queue. And with that, I'll turn it over to Mr. Van Saun for closing remarks.

並且隊列中沒有其他問題。接下來，我將把會議交給 Van Saun 先生做總結發言。

Okay. Great, Kaley. Thanks again, everyone, for dialing in today. We appreciate your interest and support. Have a great rest of the week. Thank you.

好的。太棒了，凱莉。再次感謝大家今天撥電話。我們感謝您的關注與支持。本週好好休息。謝謝。

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。