Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone and welcome to the Citizens Financial Group second-quarter earnings conference call. My name is Alan, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded.

大家早安，歡迎參加公民金融集團第二季財報電話會議。我叫艾倫，今天我將擔任你們的接線生。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，正在記錄此事件。

Now I'll turn the call over to Kristin Silberberg, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations. Kristin, you may begin.

現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係執行副總裁 Kristin Silberberg。克里斯汀，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Alan. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us. First this morning our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and CFO, John Woods will provide an overview of our second quarter results. Brendan Coughlin, Head of Consumer Banking; and Don McCree, Head of Commercial Banking are also here to provide additional color.

謝謝你，艾倫。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。今天早上首先是我們的董事長兼執行長 Bruce Van Saun；財務長約翰伍茲 (John Woods) 將概述我們第二季的業績。 Brendan Coughlin，消費者銀行業務主管；商業銀行業務主管唐·麥克雷 (Don McCree) 也在這裡提供了更多資訊。

We will be referencing our second quarter earnings presentation located on our Investor Relations website. After the presentation, we will be happy to take questions. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations.

我們將參考投資者關係網站上的第二季財報。演示結束後，我們將很樂意回答問題。我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期產生重大差異。

These are outlined for your review on page 2 of the presentation. We also reference non-GAAP financial measures. So it's important to review our GAAP results on page 3 of the presentation and the reconciliations in the appendix.

這些內容在簡報的第 2 頁上進行了概述，供您審閱。我們也參考非公認會計準則財務指標。因此，查看簡報第 3 頁的 GAAP 結果以及附錄中的調整表非常重要。

With that, I will hand over to you Bruce.

這樣，我就把布魯斯交給你了。

Okay. Thanks, Kristin. And good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call today. We did have solid results today, and we continue to execute well through an uncertain environment. Highlights for the quarter include very strong fee performance, good deposit cost management, tight expense control and credit metrics, which were within expectations.

好的。謝謝，克里斯汀。大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。今天我們確實取得了紮實的成果，並且在不確定的環境中我們繼續表現良好。本季的亮點包括非常強勁的費用表現、良好的存款成本管理、嚴格的費用控制和信貸指標，這些都在預期之內。

Our balance sheet remains robust with a CET1 ratio of 10.7%. Our loan to deposit ratio was 80%. Our ACL ratio was 1.63%, and Federal Home Loan Bank advances are now below $600 million. Of note, we saw our revenues tick up relative to Q1, our underlying PPNR grew by 2% over Q1. Our underlying net income grew by $13 million or 3%.

我們的資產負債表依然穩健，CET1 比率為 10.7%。我們的貸存比是80%。我們的 ACL 比率為 1.63%，聯邦房屋貸款銀行預付款目前低於 6 億美元。值得注意的是，我們看到我們的收入相對於第一季有所上升，我們的基本 PPNR 比第一季成長了 2%。我們的基本淨利潤增長了 1300 萬美元，即 3%。

We repurchased $200 million in shares over the quarter with our sequential EPS up 4%. The combination of our strong capital position, solid returns and capital freed up from non-core rundown, has allowed us the capital flexibility to support our customers and return capital to shareholders. Share count is down over 5% versus a year ago.

我們在本季回購了 2 億美元的股票，每股收益環比成長了 4%。我們強大的資本狀況、穩健的回報以及從非核心資金中釋放出來的資本相結合，使我們能夠靈活地支持客戶並向股東返還資本。股票數量比一年前減少了 5% 以上。

Our fee growth was relatively broad as capital markets fees continued their rebound led by loans syndications and bond underwriting. Wealth and Card fees, both at record levels. We also are seeing nice momentum in our well positioned Payments business. Our Private Bank had a terrific quarter, we reached $4 billion in deposits, up from $2.4 billion in Q1 and tracking well towards our year-end '25 goal of $11 billion.

由於資本市場費用在銀團貸款和債券承銷的帶動下持續反彈，我們的費用成長相對廣泛。財富和卡費均創歷史新高。我們也看到我們定位良好的支付業務勢頭良好。我們的私人銀行季度表現出色，存款額達到 40 億美元，高於第一季的 24 億美元，並且很好地實現了 25 年年底 110 億美元的目標。

We brought in two leading private wealth teams in the quarter, one from San Francisco and one from Boston. And we've reached $3.6 billion in assets under management at quarter end with nice momentum.

我們在本季引進了兩支領先的私人財富團隊，一支來自舊金山，一支來自波士頓。截至季末，我們管理的資產已達 36 億美元，勢頭良好。

Our commercial bank hired a middle market leader for Florida and for California during the quarter, two increasingly important states for us. Our overall commercial franchise continues to be well positioned in serving the middle market, private capital and key growth verticals, and we look for our strong performance to continue in the second half.

我們的商業銀行在本季度為佛羅裡達州和加利福尼亞州聘請了一位中間市場領導者，這兩個州對我們來說越來越重要。我們的整體商業特許經營權在服務中間市場、私人資本和關鍵成長垂直領域方面繼續處於有利地位，我們希望下半年繼續保持強勁的業績。

I should pause to give a shout out to Don McCree for his appointment as Senior Vice Chair in June. Great recognition for his efforts over the years at Citizens. We have done a good job in executing on our strategic initiatives. Top line is tracking well to targets, and we have commenced work on top 10, which will push into new areas like AI.

我應該停下來向唐·麥克雷 (Don McCree) 表示敬意，因為他在 6 月被任命為高級副主席。對他多年來在公民組織的努力的高度認可。我們在執行策略措施方面做得很好。頂線正在順利實現目標，我們已經開始了前 10 名的工作，這將進軍人工智慧等新領域。

Our BSO work is progressing well. Non-Core ran down $1.1 billion in the quarter. Commercial C&I is refocusing on deep relationships, and we have a medium-term plan to reduce our CRE exposure. Credit metrics are holding up fine outside of general office, we continue to lengthy workout of general office, which will take several more quarters before we see improvements.

我們的 BSO 工作進展順利。非核心業務本季虧損 11 億美元。商業 C&I 正在重新關注深層關係，我們制定了減少 CRE 風險的中期計劃。綜合辦公室之外的信用指標保持良好，我們繼續對綜合辦公室進行長期的鍛煉，這還需要幾個季度才能看到改善。

Roughly 70% of our office exposure is suburban versus central business district for loss, given defaults have been about half of CBD properties. The good news is that we have our arms around the issue, and we don't expect to see major surprises. Looking forward, we continue to be upbeat about our prospects while there are still many uncertainties in the external environment, we feel we are in a good position to navigate the challenges that may arise, and we maintain a positive outlook for Citizens over the balance of the year as well as the medium term.

鑑於違約率約為 CBD 物業的一半，我們約 70% 的辦公室風險敞口位於郊區，而不是中央商務區。好消息是我們已經解決了這個問題，預計不會有重大意外。展望未來，我們繼續對前景持樂觀態度，儘管外部環境仍存在許多不確定性，但我們認為我們有能力應對可能出現的挑戰，並對公民的平衡保持積極的展望。

Our strategy rests on a transformed consumer bank to best position super regional commercial bank and the aspiration to have the premier bank owned private bank. We will continue to execute with the financial and operating discipline that you've come to expect from us.

我們的策略立足於轉型消費銀行，以成為超級區域商業銀行的最佳定位，並渴望成為一流銀行擁有的私人銀行。我們將繼續遵守您對我們的期望的財務和營運紀律。

With that, let me turn it over to John.

那麼，讓我把它交給約翰。

Thanks, Bruce, and good morning, everyone. As Bruce mentioned, second quarter results were very solid in a number of key areas. Starting with the excellent fee performance, driven by strong capital markets fees and record results in Wealth and Card.

謝謝布魯斯，大家早安。正如布魯斯所提到的，第二季的業績在許多關鍵領域都非常穩健。首先是在強勁的資本市場費用以及財富和信用卡創紀錄業績的推動下，表現出色的費用表現。

Also, we manage our deposit portfolio quite well with stable balances and lower interest-bearing costs in a competitive environment, which positively impacted NII and NIM. Rounding our quarterly results, expenses and credit came in largely as expected. With respect to balance sheet strength, we continue to maintain a healthy credit reserve position and capital and liquidity levels near the top of our peer group.

此外，我們在競爭環境中管理存款組合，餘額穩定，計息成本較低，這對NII和NIM產生了正面影響。就我們的季度業績而言，費用和信貸基本上符合預期。就資產負債表實力而言，我們繼續保持健康的信貸儲備狀況以及接近同業頂尖水準的資本和流動性水準。

And importantly, we are executing well against our various multi-year strategic initiatives, including the build-out of our private bank.

重要的是，我們的各種多年戰略舉措執行得很好，包括擴大我們的私人銀行。

I'll summarize further highlights of second quarter financial results referencing Slides 3 to 6. We generated underlying net income of $408 million for the second quarter. EPS of $0.82 and ROTCE of 11.1%. Maintaining a strong balance sheet position is a top priority, and we ended the second quarter with CET1 at 10.7% or about 9% adjusted for the AOCI opt-out removal.

我將參考投影片 3 至 6 總結第二季財務業績的更多亮點。 EPS 為 0.82 美元，ROTCE 為 11.1%。保持強勁的資產負債表狀況是首要任務，第二季結束時，我們的 CET1 為 10.7%，根據 AOCI 選擇退出調整後約為 9%。

We also maintained our strong funding and liquidity profile in the second quarter. Our pro forma LCR is 119%, which is well in excess of the large bank Category 1 requirement of 100%. And our period-end LDR improved to 80.4%.

我們在第二季度也保持了強勁的資金和流動性狀況。我們的預估 LCR 為 119%，遠超過大型銀行 1 類要求的 100%。我們的期末LDR改善至80.4%。

On the funding front, we've reduced our period-end, FHLB borrowings by about $1.5 billion linked quarter to $553 million. We continued our programmatic approach to increasing our structural funding base with a successful $750 million senior debt issuance during the second quarter, and we added about another $1 billion of auto-backed borrowings.

在融資方面，我們將期末 FHLB 季度借款減少了約 15 億美元，達到 5.53 億美元。我們繼續採用計劃性方法來擴大我們的結構性融資基礎，在第二季度成功發行了 7.5 億美元的優先債務，並另外增加了約 10 億美元的汽車擔保借款。

That was our fourth issuance, essentially completing our auto program and it was executed at our tightest credit spreads to date. We also refinanced preferred stock in the second quarter by issuing $400 million of new preferred and redeeming $300 million of higher coupon floating rate preferred on July 8.

這是我們的第四次發行，基本上完成了我們的汽車計劃，並且是在我們迄今為止最嚴格的信用利差下執行的。我們也在第二季對優先股進行了再融資，發行了 4 億美元的新優先股，並於 7 月 8 日贖回了 3 億美元的票面浮動利率較高的優先股。

Credit losses of approximately $180 million were in line with our expectations. The NCO rate rose a little to 52 basis points, reflecting loan balances coming in a little lower than expected. Our ACL coverage ratio of 1.63% is up 2 basis points from the prior quarter. This includes an 11.1% coverage for general office, up from 10.6% in the prior quarter.

約 1.8 億美元的信貸損失符合我們的預期。 NCO 利率小幅上升至 52 個基點，反映貸款餘額略低於預期。我們的 ACL 覆蓋率為 1.63%，比上一季上升 2 個基點。其中包括 11.1% 的普通辦公室覆蓋率，高於上一季的 10.6%。

Regarding our strategic initiatives, the private bank is doing very well, having generated $4 billion of deposits and $3.6 billion of AUM through the second quarter. Also, our investments over the years in the private capital and capital markets space are playing out nicely as demonstrated this quarter.

就我們的策略性舉措而言，私人銀行表現非常好，第二季創造了 40 億美元的存款和 36 億美元的資產管理規模。此外，我們多年來在私人資本和資本市場領域的投資表現良好，正如本季所證明的那樣。

Finally, we are excited about our top of house initiatives, including the ongoing benefits from BSO and TOP as well as growing contributions expected from data and technology related initiatives such as generative AI and cloud migration.

最後，我們對我們的頂級計劃感到興奮，包括 BSO 和 TOP 的持續收益，以及數據和技術相關計劃（例如生成式 AI 和雲端遷移）預期的不斷增長的貢獻。

Next, I'll talk to the second quarter results in more detail, starting with net interest income on slide 7. As expected, NII is down 2% linked quarter, reflecting lower net interest margin and loan balances. With respect to NIM, as you can see in the walk at the bottom of our slide, our margin was down 4 basis points to 2.87%, reflecting a 6 basis points increase in swap expense due to the 60 basis points decline in average receive rate in the quarter.

接下來，我將更詳細地討論第二季的業績，從投影片 7 上的淨利息收入開始。就淨利差而言，正如您在幻燈片底部的演示中看到的那樣，我們的利潤率下降了4 個基點，至2.87%，反映出由於平均接收率下降60 個基點，掉期費用增加了6 個基點在本季。

This was partly offset by a net increase in NIM of two basis points from all other sources, including higher asset yields, non-core run-off and good deposit cost performance with interest-bearing deposit costs down 3 basis points. Overall, our deposit franchise continues to perform well in a very competitive environment with our interest-bearing deposit beta at 51%, which was down from 52% in Q1.

這在一定程度上被所有其他來源的淨利差淨成長兩個基點所抵消，包括資產收益率上升、非核心徑流以及良好的存款成本表現（計息存款成本下降了3個基點）。總體而言，我們的存款業務在競爭激烈的環境中持續表現良好，計息存款貝塔率為 51%，低於第一季的 52%。

Moving to Slide 8. Our fees were up 7% linked quarter, given strong results in capital markets and record Card and Wealth results. Our capital markets business improved 14% linked quarter with higher bond underwriting and loan syndication fees, given strong refinancing activity.

轉到投影片 8。由於再融資活動強勁，債券承銷和銀團貸款費用增加，我們的資本市場業務季度環比增長了 14%。

M&A advisory fees were down slightly off a strong first quarter. However, our deal pipelines remain strong, and we expect to see positive momentum in the second half of 2024. It's great to see our capital markets business holding the number one middle market sponsor bookrunner position for the second quarter in a row. This reflects the benefit of the investments we've made in our capabilities since the IPO and demonstrates the diversification of the business.

併購諮詢費用較第一季的強勁表現略有下降。然而，我們的交易管道仍然強勁，我們預計 2024 年下半年將看到積極的勢頭。這反映了自首次公開募股以來我們對能力進行的投資的效益，並展示了業務的多元化。

Card fees were a record, primarily given the full-quarter benefit of the first quarter transition to a new debit card platform as well as seasonally higher purchase volume. We delivered record results in Wealth, driven by increased sales activity as well as higher asset management fees, given the constructive market environment and contribution from the private bank, which will continue to grow given the AUM increase in the second quarter from our Wealth team hires.

卡費創歷史新高，主要是因為第一季向新簽帳卡平台過渡帶來的全季效益以及季節性更高的購買量。鑑於建設性的市場環境和私人銀行的貢獻，由於銷售活動增加以及資產管理費上漲，我們在財富領域取得了創紀錄的業績，考慮到第二季度我們財富團隊招聘的資產管理規模增加，私人銀行的貢獻將持續成長。

Mortgage banking fees are up modestly with the benefit from the MSR valuation, net of hedging, and an improvement in servicing P&L. Production fees were down slightly given a decline in margins.

受惠於 MSR 估值（扣除對沖）以及損益服務服務的改善，抵押貸款銀行費用小幅上漲。由於利潤率下降，製作費用略有下降。

On Slide 9, underlying expenses were down slightly as we saw the normal seasonal benefit in compensation and we did a nice job managing our expenses while continuing to invest in our strategic initiatives. Our TOP 9 program is progressing well, and we continue to expect to deliver of $135 million pretax run rate benefit by the end of the year. We have commenced work on our TOP 10 program and will provide more details later this year.

在投影片 9 中，基本費用略有下降，因為我們看到了薪酬方面的正常季節性收益，並且我們在管理費用方面做得很好，同時繼續投資於我們的策略計劃。我們的 TOP 9 計畫進展順利，我們繼續預計到年底將實現 1.35 億美元的稅前運行率效益。我們已經開始製定 TOP 10 計劃，並將在今年稍後提供更多詳細資訊。

On Slide 10, period end and average loans are down 1% linked quarter, as we continue to optimize our balance sheet and prioritize relationship-based lending. While linked quarter decline was driven by the runoff of our noncore portfolio of $1.1 billion. Core loans were broadly stable with a slight reduction in commercial balances, largely offset by an increase in retail. The decrease in commercial loans reflects paydowns and exits of lower returning credit-only relationships, lower client loan demand, and corporates continuing to issue in the debt markets.

在投影片 10 中，隨著我們繼續優化資產負債表並優先考慮基於關係的貸款，期末貸款和平均貸款環比下降 1%。雖然季度環比下降是由我們非核心投資組合 11 億美元的流失造成的。核心貸款基本上穩定，商業餘額略有減少，但大部分被零售成長所抵消。商業貸款的減少反映了還款和退出回報率較低的純粹信貸關係、客戶貸款需求下降以及企業繼續在債務市場發行債券。

Next on slides 11 and 12, we continued to do an excellent job of deposits in an extremely competitive environment. Period-end deposits are broadly stable linked quarter as seasonally lower retail deposits was offset by strong growth in the private bank. We continue to see a slowing rate of migration from demand and lower cost deposits to higher cost interest-bearing accounts with the Fed holding steady as well as the benefit of deposit market share gains with the private bank.

接下來在投影片 11 和 12 中，我們在競爭極其激烈的環境中繼續出色地完成存款工作。期末存款環比基本穩定，因為零售存款的季節性下降被私人銀行的強勁增長所抵消。我們繼續看到，在聯準會保持穩定以及私人銀行存款市場份額增長的情況下，從需求和低成本存款遷移到成本較高的計息帳戶的速度正在放緩。

As a result, noninterest-bearing deposits are stable at about 21% of total deposits. Our deposit franchise is highly diversified across product mix and channels. About 69% of our deposits are granular, stable consumer deposits and approximately 70% of our overall deposits are insured or secured. This attractive deposit base has allowed us to efficiently and cost effectively manage our funding costs in the higher rate environment Our interest-bearing deposit costs were down three basis points linked quarter, given proactive management of our pricing strategy.

因此，無利息存款佔存款總額的比例穩定在21%左右。我們的存款業務在產品組合和通路方面高度多元化。我們約 69% 的存款是細粒度、穩定的消費者存款，約 70% 的總存款受到保險或擔保。這種有吸引力的存款基礎使我們能夠在較高的利率環境下高效且具成本效益地管理我們的融資成本。 。

Moving to credit on Slide 13. Net charge-offs were 52 basis points, up 2 basis points linked quarter reflecting broadly stable charge-offs and lower average loans. The commercial charge-offs in the quarter were largely driven by CRE General Office and the fact that C&I recoveries were higher in 1Q versus 2Q.

轉向投影片 13 上的信貸。本季的商業沖銷主要是由商業房地產辦公廳以及第一季商業和工業回收率高於第二季這一事實所推動的。

This increase in commercial was largely offset by a decrease in retail, primarily due to seasonal trends in auto and runoff. Nonaccrual loans increased 4% linked quarter, driven by increases in CRE General Office and Multifamily, which has been reflected in the reserve level for the quarter.

商業業務的成長在很大程度上被零售業務的下降所抵消，零售業務的下降主要是由於汽車和徑流的季節性趨勢造成的。非應計貸款較上季成長 4%，主要受 CRE 綜合辦公室和多戶家庭貸款成長的推動，已反映在本季的準備金水準中。

Turning to the allowance for credit losses on slide 14. Our overall coverage ratio stands at 1.63%, which is a 2 basis points increase from the first quarter, reflecting broadly stable reserves and lower loan balances given non-core run-off and commercial paydowns and balance sheet optimization.

轉向投影片14 上的信貸損失準備金。低和資產負債表優化。

Our reserve of $369 million for the $3.3 billion General Office portfolio represents 11.1% coverage up from 10.6% in the first quarter. Additionally, since the second quarter of 2023, we have absorbed $319 million of cumulative losses in the General Office portfolio. When you add these cumulative losses to the reserves outstanding, this represents roughly a 17% loss rate based on the March 2023 balance of $4.1 billion.

我們為 33 億美元的辦公室投資組合準備了 3.69 億美元，覆蓋率從第一季的 10.6% 上升到 11.1%。此外，自 2023 年第二季以來，我們已經吸收了辦公廳投資組合的累積虧損 3.19 億美元。當您將這些累積損失添加到未償準備金中時，根據 2023 年 3 月的 41 億美元餘額，損失率約為 17%。

Over the past six quarters, The General Office portfolio was down roughly $900 million to $3.3 billion at June 30, given paydowns of about $500 million and the charge-offs I just mentioned. For loss experience so far has been concentrated in the central business district properties with approximately 2 times the loss rate of suburban properties.

在過去的六個季度中，考慮到約 5 億美元的付款和我剛才提到的沖銷，截至 6 月 30 日，The General Office 投資組合減少了約 9 億美元，降至 33 億美元。迄今的損失經驗主要集中在中央商務區的房產，其損失率約為郊區房產的2倍。

Suburban exposure is 70% of our total at this point. On the bottom left of the page, you can see some of the key assumptions driving the General Office reserve coverage level, which we believe represents a severe scenario that is much worse than we've seen in historical downturns, so we feel the current coverage is very strong.

目前，郊區暴露量占我們總暴露量的 70%。在頁面左下角，您可以看到一些推動辦公廳準備金覆蓋水平的關鍵假設，我們認為這代表了一種嚴重的情況，比我們在歷史低迷時期看到的情況要糟糕得多，因此我們認為目前的覆蓋範圍非常強。

Moving to slide 15, we have maintained excellent balance sheet strength. Our CET1 ratio was a strong 10.7%, up 10 basis points from 1Q. And if you were to adjust for the AOCI opt out removal under the current regulatory proposal, our CET1 ratio would be 9%. Both our CET1 and TCE ratios have consistently been among the top of our peers.

轉向投影片 15，我們保持了出色的資產負債表實力。我們的 CET1 比率高達 10.7%，比第一季上升 10 個基點。如果根據當前監管提案調整 AOCI 選擇退出，我們的 CET1 比率將為 9%。我們的CET1和TCE比率一直位居同業前列。

You can see on Slide 16, where our CET1 stands currently relative to peers. Given our strong capital position, we repurchased another $200 million in common shares and including dividends, we returned a total of $394 million to shareholders in the second quarter.

您可以在投影片 16 中看到我們的 CET1 目前相對於同行的情況。鑑於我們強大的資本狀況，我們又回購了 2 億美元的普通股，包括股息在內，我們在第二季度向股東總共返還了 3.94 億美元。

Moving to Slide 17. Our strategy is built on a transformed consumer bank, the best positioned commercial bank amongst our regional peers and our aspiration to build the premier bank on private bank and Wealth franchise.

轉向幻燈片 17。

First, we have a strong transform consumer bank with a robust and capable deposit franchise, rounded in primary relationships and high-quality customer growth. Notably, the transformation of our consumer deposit franchise is the chief reason that our deposit performance has dramatically improved from the last upgrade cycle.

首先，我們擁有一家強大的轉型消費銀行，擁有強大而有能力的存款特許經營權、全面的主要關係和高品質的客戶成長。值得注意的是，我們的消費者存款業務的轉型是我們的存款表現較上一個升級週期大幅改善的主要原因。

We are much more linked on our deposit raising capabilities now with more levers to pull and better analytical tools and where our beta performance lagged our regional peers last time, so far this cycle, we are better than peer median.

現在，我們與存款籌集能力的聯繫更加緊密，擁有更多的槓桿和更好的分析工具，並且我們的貝塔表現上次落後於我們的區域同行，但本週期到目前為止，我們優於同行中位數。

We also have a differentiated lending platform, where we are prioritizing building durable relationships with our customers. And we are focused on scaling our Wealth business. Importantly, we continue to make great progress improving digital engagement with our customers and increasing deposit shares, we build our customer base, particularly in New York Metro.

我們還有一個差異化的貸款平台，我們優先考慮與客戶建立持久的關係。我們專注於擴大我們的財富業務。重要的是，我們在改善與客戶的數位互動和增加存款份額方面繼續取得巨大進展，我們建立了我們的客戶群，特別是在紐約地鐵。

Next, we believe we have built the leading commercial bank amongst the super-regional banks. We are focusing on serving sponsors and middle market companies in the high-growth sectors of the economy, and we have full set of product and advisory capabilities to deliver to our clients.

接下來，我們相信我們已經建成超級區域銀行中領先的商業銀行。我們專注於為經濟高成長產業的贊助商和中間市場公司提供服務，我們擁有全套產品和諮詢能力可以為客戶提供服務。

In particular, we are uniquely positioned to serve the private capital ecosystem, which appears poised for a strong recovery after one of the slowest deal-making periods in decades. We are starting to see a more constructive capital markets environment develop and our consistent position near the top of the middle market and sponsor league tables gives us confidence that we have a right to win as activity picks up.

特別是，我們在服務私人資本生態系統方面處於獨特的地位，在經歷了幾十年來最慢的交易時期之一之後，該生態系統似乎有望強勁復甦。我們開始看到更具建設性的資本市場環境的發展，我們在中端市場和贊助商排名表中始終名列前茅的地位讓我們相信，隨著活動的增加，我們有權利獲勝。

Finally, we're building a premier private bank, and that is going very well and gaining momentum. We are growing our client base and now have about $4 billion of attractive deposits, a $1.6 billion increase from the prior quarter with roughly 30% non-interest-bearing. Also, we are now at $1.24 billion of loans and continuing to grow.

最後，我們正在建造一家一流的私人銀行，進展順利，勢頭強勁。我們正在擴大客戶群，目前擁有約 40 億美元的有吸引力的存款，比上一季增加了 16 億美元，其中約 30% 為無息存款。此外，我們現在的貸款額為 12.4 億美元，並且還在繼續成長。

We recently opened private banking offices in Mill Valley, California and Palm Beach, Florida, and we are operated tunistically adding talent to bolster our banking and wealth capabilities with our Citizens Wealth management business as the centerpiece of that effort. We added two exceptional asset management teams in the second quarter, one from San Francisco and the other from Boston, bringing the total private bank AUM to $3.6 billion, well on our way to hit our $10 billion target by the end of 2025.

我們最近在加州米爾谷和佛羅裡達州棕櫚灘開設了私人銀行辦事處，我們的營運方式是透過增加人才來增強我們的銀行和財富能力，並將公民財富管理業務作為這項努力的核心。我們在第二季增加了兩個出色的資產管理團隊，一個來自舊金山，另一個來自波士頓，使私人銀行資產管理規模總額達到 36 億美元，預計在 2025 年底實現 100 億美元的目標。

Importantly, our private bank revenue increased 68% to about $30 million in the second quarter and we are on track to breakeven on the bottom line later this year.

重要的是，第二季我們的私人銀行收入成長了 68%，達到約 3,000 萬美元，我們預計在今年稍後實現盈虧平衡。

Moving to slide 18, we provide the guide for the third quarter. This outlook contemplates a 25 basis points rate cut in each of September and December. We expect NII to be down 1% to 2%, driven by one last step up in swap costs cycle.

轉到投影片 18，我們提供第三季的指南。該展望預計 9 月和 12 月分別降息 25 個基點。我們預計，在掉期成本週期最後一步上升的推動下，NII 將下降 1% 至 2%。

Noninterest income should be up slightly, reflecting seasonally lower capital markets more than offset by a pickup across other categories. We expect noninterest expense to be stable. Net charge-offs are expected to be down modestly, and the ACL should continue to benefit from non-core runoff. Our CET1 ratio is expected to come in about 10.5% with approximately $250 million to $300 million of share repurchase is currently planned.

非利息收入應該會小幅成長，反映出資本市場的季節性走低，足以被其他類別的成長所抵銷。我們預計非利息支出將保持穩定。淨沖銷預計將小幅下降，ACL 應繼續受益於非核心徑流。我們的 CET1 比率預計約為 10.5%，目前計劃回購約 2.5 億至 3 億美元的股票。

With respect to the full year 2024 guide we provided in January, we feel good about the overall level of PPNR Revenues are tracking broadly in line with some puts and takes. NII is expected to come in at the upper end of the down 6% to 9% range, reflecting lower loan balances with NIM trending modestly better.

就我們 1 月提供的 2024 年全年指南而言，我們對 PPNR 收入的整體水準感到滿意，其追蹤情況與一些看跌期權和拿取期權大致一致。 NII 預計將處於下降 6% 至 9% 範圍的上限，反映出貸款餘額較低，而 NIM 趨勢略有改善。

Fees should come in modestly above the range of 6% to 9% originally expected. You should expect us to continue to do well in expenses, which will be broadly in line with the January guide. We expect NII and net interest margin to rebound in the fourth quarter, given swap costs have peaked in the third quarter with a return to positive operating leverage in the fourth quarter.

費用應略高於最初預期的 6% 至 9%。您應該期望我們在支出方面繼續表現良好，這將與一月份的指南大致一致。鑑於掉期成本已在第三季達到頂峰且第四季營運槓桿率恢復為正值，我們預計第四季NII和淨利差將反彈。

In addition, net charge-offs are trending in line with our January expectations. We continue to expect to end the year with a target CET1 ratio of approximately 10.5%, and the level of share repurchases will be dependent on our view of the external environment and loan growth.

此外，淨沖銷趨勢符合我們 1 月的預期。我們仍預期年底 CET1 目標比率約為 10.5%，股票回購水準將取決於我們對外部環境和貸款成長的看法。

To wrap up, we delivered a strong quarter with good momentum in capital markets, record results in Wealth and Card and credit performance that continues to play out largely as expected. Our capital levels are strong near the top of our peer group, and we are maintaining robust liquidity and funding.

總而言之，我們的季度表現強勁，資本市場勢頭良好，財富和信用卡業務創紀錄的業績，信貸表現繼續基本符合預期。我們的資本水準在同行中名列前茅，並且我們保持著強勁的流動性和資金。

Our unique multiyear strategic initiatives, including the build-out of our private bank, are progressing well and our consumer and commercial banking businesses are well positioned to drive strong performance over the medium term. Given these tailwinds, combined with strong execution and tight expense management, we remain confident in our ability to hit our medium-term 16% to 18% return target.

我們獨特的多年策略舉措，包括私人銀行的擴建，進展順利，我們的消費者和商業銀行業務處於有利位置，可以在中期推動強勁業績。鑑於這些有利因素，再加上強大的執行力和嚴格的費用管理，我們仍然對實現 16% 至 18% 中期回報目標的能力充滿信心。

And with that, I'll hand it back over to Bruce.

有了這個，我會把它交還給布魯斯。

Thank you, John. Alan, let's open it up for Q&A.

謝謝你，約翰。艾倫，讓我們開始問答。

Thank you, Mr. Van Suan. We are now ready for the Q&A portion of the call. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝您，範蘇安先生。我們現在已準備好進行電話問答部分。 （操作員說明）

Peter Winter, DA Davidson.

彼得溫特，DA 戴維森。

Morning. Can you provide an update on the loan outlook in the second half of the year and maybe just talk about customer sentiment, what it's going to take to kind of move them off the sideline?

早晨。您能否提供下半年貸款前景的最新情況，也許只是談談客戶情緒，以及如何讓他們不再觀望？

I'm going to jump on that one. So I mean, I think we're seeing pretty positive signs for 2H as it relates to loan growth. When we look at the three different businesses that really will drive that we've got the private bank, which has demonstrated the ability to not only grow deposits and AUM, but the Private Bank is actually penetrating its customer base and growing loans in the second quarter, and we expect that to actually continue and begin to accelerate into the second half.

我要跳上那個。所以我的意思是，我認為我們在第二季度看到了與貸款成長相關的非常積極的跡象。當我們審視三個真正將推動私人銀行業務發展的不同業務時，它已經證明了其不僅有能力增加存款和資產管理規模，而且私人銀行實際上正在滲透其客戶群並在第二個階段增加貸款。 我們預計這種情況實際上會持續下去，並開始加速進入下半年。

In the commercial space customer activities picking up, we do expect to see that particularly in our sort of M&A advisory related driven finance arena, we're seeing some opportunities in the subscription line space as well as some pickup in fund finance and then in retail, we've been seeing some opportunities in HELOC and mortgage. So all three legs of our stool as we call it, are starting to demonstrate the ability to really deliver on that loan growth expectation as you look out into the second half.

在商業領域客戶活動的回升中，我們確實希望看到，特別是在併購諮詢相關驅動的金融領域，我們看到訂閱線領域的一些機會以及基金融資和零售領域的一些回升，我們在HELOC 和抵押貸款領域看到了一些機會。因此，當你展望下半年時，我們所說的所有三條腿都開始展現出真正實現貸款成長預期的能力。

Yeah John, I'll jump in on that. It's Don. I think one of the interesting things we've seen and this goes to Capital Markets also is a real pickup on new money activity over the last six to eight weeks as the interest rate cycle appears to be abating in the economy seems to be okay, so that's driving growth and subscription lines, that's driving a little bit more bullishness among our core C&I customers and certainly driving opportunistic activity among the PE firms. So I think we'll see some decent growth in the second half of the year. Exact timing, I mean I'm not exactly sure, but we did see at the end of the second quarter, the beginnings of some pretty significant draws on our subscription lines.

是的，約翰，我會加入進來。是唐。我認為我們看到的有趣的事情之一，這對資本市場來說也是過去六到八週新資金活動的真正回升，因為利率週期似乎正在減弱，經濟似乎還不錯，因此，這推動了增長和認購額度，推動了我們的核心工商業客戶更加樂觀，當然也推動了私募股權公司的機會主義活動。所以我認為下半年我們會看到一些不錯的成長。確切的時間，我的意思是我不太確定，但我們確實在第二季末看到，我們的訂閱線開始出現一些相當大的吸引力。

Yeah. And I'll jump in to on the Consumer and Private Banking side. The consumer story is a little complicated given the non-core rundown, we were running down $800 million to $1 billion each quarter. But if you put that aside, the fundamentals of our core loan business are actually growing at a reasonable clip, really led by residential lending and a little bit in Card.

是的。我將談談消費者和私人銀行業務方面。考慮到非核心支出，消費者的故事有點複雜，我們每季減少 8 億至 10 億美元。但如果你把這一點放在一邊，我們核心貸款業務的基本面實際上正在以合理的速度增長，真正由住宅貸款和信用卡業務帶動。

Our HELOC position remains incredibly strong. And with rates being higher than we had expected going into the year and our customers having the most home equity in their personal balance sheet in the history of the United States. Our HELOC market position is reaping a lot of benefits for sourcing. Very strong HELOC growth, despite the mortgage challenges, some modest growth in the mortgage portfolio, we're starting to see a bit of a tick-up on the card book.

我們的 HELOC 地位仍然非常穩固。今年的利率高於我們的預期，我們的客戶在個人資產負債表中擁有美國歷史上最多的房屋淨值。我們的 HELOC 市場地位為採購帶來了許多好處。儘管抵押貸款面臨挑戰，抵押貸款組合略有增長，但 HELOC 增長非常強勁，但我們開始看到信用卡帳簿有所回升。

And then turning to the private bank, really our offering is much broader than what the team that we hired was used to. So we're starting to see diversification of that book. Early days, it was really led by private equity and venture capital call lines that still strengthen the business model. We did see in this last quarter in Q2, a diversification towards consumer. So consumers now 36% of the loan book versus in the low 20s earlier in the year. Some mortgage is starting to pick up, some HELOC lending and still continued strength in business banking and private equity, we expect that trend to continue.

然後轉向私人銀行，我們的產品實際上比我們僱用的團隊所習慣的要廣泛得多。所以我們開始看到這本書的多元性。在早期，它實際上是由私募股權和創投電話線主導的，這些電話線仍然強化了商業模式。我們確實在第二季的最後一個季度看到了面向消費者的多元化。因此，現在消費者佔貸款總額的 36%，而今年稍早只有 20% 左右。一些抵押貸款開始回升，一些 HELOC 貸款開始回升，商業銀行和私募股權仍持續走強，我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去。

That's great color. Thank you. And just on a separate question, just the stress capital buffer came in higher than I was expecting, I'm sure it's higher than what you were expected. Are there any plans to kind of reassess any of the businesses to help drive lower SVB?

那顏色真棒。謝謝。關於一個單獨的問題，壓力資本緩衝比我的預期要高，我確信它比你的預期要高。是否有計劃重新評估任何業務以幫助降低 SVB？

Bruce, you mentioned some plans over the medium term to reduce the CRE exposure?

Bruce，您提到了一些減少商業房地產風險的中期計劃？

Yeah, I guess we were a bit disappointed in the SVB result, kind of I'd say I think that Fed overall does a pretty good job on credit. They are very conservative, but they have a lot of data to work from and where we've consistently been frustrated has been on their modeling and PPNR. And so our own modeling of PPNR is kind of much more robust. I think we do things like we pickup forward-starting swaps. We tailor the situation to the scenario where if rates are much lower than we're going to see a pickup in mortgage fees and a pickup in capital markets fees, depending on the scenario.

是的，我想我們對 SVB 的結果有點失望，我想說的是，我認為聯準會整體上在信貸方面做得相當不錯。他們非常保守，但他們有大量數據可供使用，我們一直對他們的建模和 PPNR 感到沮喪。因此我們自己的 PPNR 模型更加穩健。我認為我們會做一些事情，例如我們進行前瞻性互換。我們根據情況調整情況，如果利率遠低於我們將看到抵押貸款費用上升和資本市場費用上升的情況，具體取決於情況。

But anyway, I'd say, we have -- the good news is we have sufficient capital. We've run at a conservative level. So having a higher SVB than we think is appropriate isn't really hindering our strategy. And so I don't think, Peter, that we need to make significant changes to the business model. I think we're on the right track.

但無論如何，我想說，我們有——好消息是我們有足夠的資本。我們一直在保守的水平上運行。因此，高於我們認為合適的 SVB 並不會真正阻礙我們的策略。因此，彼得，我認為我們不需要對商業模式進行重大改變。我認為我們走在正確的軌道上。

Having said that, the balance sheet optimization is still places where there's work to do to optimize the risk-adjusted returns that we make off the balance sheet and to hopefully improve some of those stress results on the credit side. And so CRE, we can see that rundown we popped up after we did the investors acquisition. A lot of that was low risk, Multifamily. But certainly, we want to create the capacity to lend in areas that really further deeper relationships. And we'll have more C&I kind of fill some of that void as we bring down CRE would probably be the biggest shift that we see on the balance sheet over time.

話雖如此，資產負債表優化仍然是我們需要做的工作，以優化我們在資產負債表外獲得的風險調整回報，並有望改善信貸方面的一些壓力結果。因此，CRE，我們可以看到在完成投資者收購後出現的摘要。其中很多都是低風險的，多戶家庭。但當然，我們希望在真正加深關係的領域建立貸款能力。我們將有更多的 C&I 來填補一些空白，因為我們降低了 CRE，這可能是我們在資產負債表上看到的隨著時間的推移而發生的最大轉變。

Got it. Thanks, Bruce.

知道了。謝謝，布魯斯。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

Hi. Good morning. The first question is for John. John, I think you were at a conference in June, and you talked very positively about an exit rate for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the net interest margin. I'm wondering if you could readdress that again and maybe put it in context of you know, you noted that the swap costs were peaking in the third quarter.

你好。早安.第一個問題是問約翰的。約翰，我想您在 6 月的一次會議上，您非常積極地談到了 2024 年第四季的退出率和淨利差。我想知道您是否可以再次重新解決這個問題，也許可以將其放在您知道的背景下，您注意到掉期成本在第三季度達到頂峰。

If you can give that in context on how you expect your asset yields to traject as we think about that September and December rate cut. And obviously, the 3 basis points improvement in interest-bearing deposit costs are notable starting the trajectory from here, whether it's in context of the rate cuts and runout?

當我們考慮 9 月和 12 月降息時，您是否可以結合您對資產收益率的預期軌跡來給出這一點。顯然，有息存款成本的 3 個基點改善從這裡開始就引人注目，無論是在降息和資金緊張的背景下嗎？

Yes, sure, Erika. I guess what I'll start off with is that, at the beginning of the year we did indicate that we thought the exit NIM would be in that neighbourhood of [2.85] or so. I'd say that as we've gotten into the middle part of the year, we expect that to come in a little better. So I think I did mention that at a conference earlier last quarter, and I think we can confirm that those trends continue to be looking good that we're going to end up a little better than what we expected.

是的，當然，艾莉卡。我想我首先要說的是，在今年年初，我們確實表明我們認為 NIM 出口將位於 [2.85] 左右的附近。我想說，隨著我們進入今年中期，我們預計情況會好一點。所以我想我確實在上個季度早些時候的一次會議上提到過這一點，我認為我們可以確認這些趨勢仍然看起來不錯，我們最終會比我們的預期好一點。

And broadly, what we said at the time was that we saw loans coming in a little lower and pushed out a little bit more than we had originally expected, but that was getting offset in part from better net interest margin trends. We were pleased to be able to print say a very strong interest-bearing deposit costs number that was down 3 basis points this quarter.

總的來說，我們當時所說的是，我們看到貸款的流入量略低於我們最初的預期，發放的貸款量略多於我們最初的預期，但這在一定程度上被更好的淨息差趨勢所抵消。我們很高興能夠公佈非常強勁的計息存款成本數據，本季下降了 3 個基點。

And I think it's very likely that our interest-bearing deposit costs have peaked in the first quarter, that we had some nice opportunity to kind of price our rollovers of CDs in the second quarter. And that was a tailwind. I think there'll be some variability there, but I think 1Q is probably the peak and that will provide a nice tailwind as you get into the second half of the year.

我認為我們的計息存款成本很可能在第一季達到頂峰，我們有一些很好的機會在第二季對我們的 CD 展期進行定價。這是順風順水。我認為會有一些變化，但我認為第一季可能是峰值，這將為進入今年下半年提供良好的推動力。

I mean, broadly, the trends when you get into the fourth quarter are on the following lines. Every quarter, we're generating a couple of basis points of positive benefit from all other sources outside of swaps. And so given the third quarter is the last time that we'll see a step-up in swap costs. Really those -- that the rest of the bank will be able to drive net interest margin rising off of that NIM trough in 3Q into 4Q.

我的意思是，總的來說，進入第四季時的趨勢如下。每個季度，我們都會從掉期以外的所有其他來源產生幾個基點的正面收益。因此，鑑於第三季是我們最後一次看到掉期成本上升。事實上，銀行的其他部門將能夠推動淨利差從第三季的淨利差低谷上升到第四季。

And the big drivers would be -- there's a number of them, I mean we've got non-core, which continues to run-off and as providing about 2 basis points a quarter of net interest margin all by itself. You've got asset yields around 5 basis points or so ex-swaps, given the front book back book dynamic that we're seeing, which is in that 200 basis points to 300 basis points range from the standpoint of what's happening with securities and loans.

最大的推動因素是——其中有很多，我的意思是我們有非核心因素，這些因素繼續流失，並單獨提供四分之一淨息差約2個基點。考慮到我們所看到的前帳本後帳本動態，從證券和金融業發生的情況來看，資產收益率約為 5 個基點左右，即 200 個基點到 300 個基點。

And then you have the initiatives with the private bank, which is accretive across the Board, which is contributing. So all of those things, I think you'll see contribute you know, and I say that getting that first Fed cut in late September would be also helpful. It's not necessary for us to stay on track. We're having a really strong rebound in 4Q, but it does help -- I'd say, address either the higher for longer pressures that pricing pressures on deposits that will continue to bump along until that first cut comes out from the Fed.

然後，你可以與私人銀行合作，這些措施在整個董事會中都在增值，正在做出貢獻。因此，我想您會看到所有這些事情的貢獻，我說，聯準會在 9 月底首次降息也會有所幫助。我們沒有必要一直走在正軌上。我們在第四季度經歷了非常強勁的反彈，但這確實有幫助——我想說，可以解決長期壓力較高的問題，即存款定價壓力將繼續上升，直到聯準會首次降息。

So let me stop there and see if that addresses a number of the points that you made.

因此，讓我停在這裡，看看這是否解決了您提出的一些觀點。

That does. As you lay out the path inside the third quarter from a rising cost for the net interest margin from what you mentioned as a 3Q '24 trough. I'm wondering about the size of the balance sheet? Do you feel like your mix is optimized? In other words, as your investors think about a normalizing NIM and multiply that by your balance sheet, is your balance sheet growth going to be in line with business growth? Or will there be some moves that you're making in terms of, you know, wholesale funding or whatever else that could move balance sheet growth sort of underneath business growth or above business growth?

確實如此。正如您所提到的「24 年第三季低谷」所示，您在第三季內規劃了淨利差成本上升的路徑。我想知道資產負債表的規模？您覺得您的組合得到了最佳化嗎？換句話說，當你的投資人考慮淨利差正常化並將其乘以你的資產負債表時，你的資產負債表成長是否會與業務成長一致？或者，您會在批發融資或其他方面採取一些舉措，這些舉措可能會導致資產負債表成長低於業務成長或高於業務成長？

Yeah, it's a good question. I'd say I mean, I think there might be two different answers here. One is, in the second half of '24, we have at the balance sheet date here at June 30, we have a significant amount of excess liquidity. And so you could see us deploy some of that into lending through the second half. And that's very powerful in terms of the ability to drive net interest margin. And so we're pleased to be able to do that given how strong our balance sheet position is at June 30.

是的，這是一個好問題。我想說的是，我認為這裡可能有兩個不同的答案。一是，在 2024 年下半年，我們在 6 月 30 日的資產負債表日，我們有大量的流動性過剩。因此，您可以看到我們在下半年將其中一些資金用於貸款。這對於推動淨利差的能力非常強大。鑑於 6 月 30 日我們的資產負債表狀況非常強勁，我們很高興能夠做到這一點。

But I think when you zoom out and think about the medium term, we will, without a doubt, have opportunity to grow the balance sheet over time in line with business growth, adjusted for the balance sheet optimization initiatives that we have in place.

但我認為，當你放眼長遠並考慮中期時，毫無疑問，我們將有機會隨著時間的推移根據業務增長來擴大資產負債表，並根據我們現有的資產負債表優化舉措進行調整。

But that powerful combination of net interest margin reflating into that, call it, say [3.25 to 3.40] range, plus the opportunity to grow the balance sheet over the medium term is really one of them is the primary and majority driver of our ROTCE targets over the medium term. So I think maybe a little bit of transition in 2H where we'll probably deploy some liquidity but then growing into '25 and '26 and beyond.

但是，淨利差再膨脹到[3.25至3.40]範圍的強大組合，加上中期資產負債表增長的機會，確實是其中之一，也是我們ROTCE目標的主要驅動力從中期來看。因此，我認為可能會在 2H 進行一些過渡，我們可能會部署一些流動性，但隨後會發展到 25 年和 26 年及以後。

I would just add to that, Erika, is, I do think we have one thing that's pretty unique to us, which is the launch of the private bank. So if we just grow at kind of nominal GDP kind of in the medium term for consumer and commercial, we should grow a little faster because the Private Bank is scaling up. And certainly as the customer base grows and we keep adding and investing in the business, we should see additional growth there.

艾莉卡，我想補充一點，我確實認為我們有一件非常獨特的事情，那就是私人銀行的成立。因此，如果我們在中期以消費者和商業的名目GDP成長，我們的成長速度應該會更快一些，因為私人銀行正在擴大規模。當然，隨著客戶群的成長以及我們不斷增加和投資業務，我們應該會看到那裡的進一步成長。

Well said guys, thank you.

各位說得好，謝謝。

Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

瑞恩·納什，高盛。

Mr. Nash, if you could please check your mute feature on your phone.

納許先生，如果可以的話，請檢查一下您手機上的靜音功能。

Alan, maybe we can come back to Ryan, let's move on to the next question, and we'll circle back to Ryan.

艾倫，也許我們可以回到瑞安，讓我們繼續下一個問題，然後我們再回到瑞安。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

All right. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe we could pivot to the fee store for a moment. That's been a pretty solid story was this quarter end. Don, so it sounded like we'll see maybe some seasonal Capital Markets weakness in the third quarter, but it feels like it's on a good trajectory. So just maybe some thoughts on the overall investment banking pipeline, how it looks? And then just broader thoughts on the main drivers as you see them for the fee-based outlook.

好的。感謝您提出問題。也許我們可以暫時轉向收費商店。本季末，這是一個相當可靠的故事。唐，聽起來我們可能會在第三季看到一些季節性的資本市場疲軟，但感覺它正處於良好的軌道上。那麼也許只是對整個投資銀行管道的一些想法，它看起來怎麼樣？然後是對主要驅動因素的更廣泛的思考，就像你看到的基於收費的前景一樣。

I'll start off with the broader picture and maybe let Don tell us a little bit more about the capital markets pipeline outlook. But more broadly, I mean, we're really pleased with our performance in the second quarter and printing another number one, middle market sponsor position on the table is nice to see the second quarter in a row.

我將從更廣泛的情況開始，也許讓唐告訴我們更多有關資本市場管道前景的資訊。但更廣泛地說，我的意思是，我們對第二季度的表現感到非常滿意，並且很高興看到連續第二季度在桌面上打印另一個排名第一的中間市場贊助商位置。

3Q is the typical seasonal period where it's a little down for capital markets. And we expect that may play out as it's done in prior years. But I mean, I think the floor in those -- in that seasonally down period is actually higher this year than it's been in prior years. So that's something to keep in mind. That given all of the investments we actually sure will be down off a great 2Q, but the floor is probably higher than prior years, number one.

第三季是典型的季節性時期，資本市場略有下滑。我們預計這可能會像前幾年一樣發生。但我的意思是，我認為今年季節性下降時期的下限實際上比前幾年要高。所以這是需要記住的事情。考慮到所有投資，我們實際上確信第二季的投資將會大幅下降，但下限可能高於前幾年，位居第一。

Number two, the diversification, not only within capital markets, but outside of Capital Markets and all the investments we've been making in Wealth. We had those two significant asset management teams that we brought onboard, plus all of our organic investments inside the private bank and broadly is really driving well for you.

第二，多元化，不僅在資本市場內部，而且在資本市場和我們在財富領域進行的所有投資之外。我們擁有兩個重要的資產管理團隊，加上我們在私人銀行內部的所有有機投資，總的來說，確實對您有好處。

So here to see well fees be a bigger contributor in the third quarter. And just so you see the rate environment moving around, we're seeing opportunities in our -- helping our customer hedge the exposure to rates. And so we're going to -- we expect to see some benefit there, and just a number of other categories including service charges and an ability for possibly some mortgage banking opportunities as rates seem to be stabilizing and down. So there's just a number of other categories, given the diversification of the platform that will allow us to stay on track here as you head into the third quarter.

因此，我們可以看到油井費用在第三季將做出更大的貢獻。正如你看到利率環境的變化，我們看到了機會—幫助我們的客戶對沖利率風險。因此，我們預計會看到一些好處，以及一些其他類別的好處，包括服務費以及隨著利率似乎穩定和下降而可能獲得一些抵押貸款銀行機會的能力。因此，考慮到平台的多元化，還有許多其他類別，這將使我們在進入第三季時保持在正軌上。

So just to add to that we did take some regulatory cleanup items in other income. So that was a suppressed in the quarter, which should bounce back next quarter.

因此，補充一點，我們確實在其他收入中採取了一些監管清理項目。因此，這一季度受到抑制，下季度應該會反彈。

But with that, Don, why don't you give a little more color on --

但是，唐，你為什麼不給一點更多的色彩——

So it's interesting. The characteristics of the market are very favorable right now. There's enormous amounts of liquidity and that drove really the first half of the year, which was primarily a like refinancing market. So if you look at transactions done in the core capital markets being syndicated lending and bonds, it was about 85% refinancing of existing exposures that were up on people's balance sheet and extending maturities and alike.

所以這很有趣。目前市場的特徵非常有利。有大量的流動性，這確實推動了今年上半年的發展，這主要是一個再融資市場。因此，如果你看看核心資本市場上進行的銀團貸款和債券交易，你會發現大約 85% 是對人們資產負債表上現有風險敞口的再融資，以及延長期限等。

What we didn't see and what we're beginning to see is new money activity led by the private equity team. So as we move into a more favorable interest rate environment, a decent economic environment, we're starting to see the pipelines really grow on the PE side of the business. And frankly, that's where the big underwritings are, and that's where the profitability drives.

我們沒有看到但我們開始看到的是私募股權團隊主導的新資金活動。因此，當我們進入更有利的利率環境、體面的經濟環境時，我們開始看到私募股權業務的管道真正成長。坦白說，這就是大額承保的所在，也是獲利能力的驅動力。

M&A is hanging in there pretty well. Remember, we are primarily a middle market investment bank. So we do the mid-sized deals, $100 million valuation to $1 billion valuation, $100 billion capital raise to a $1 billion capital raise. So those have actually been more resilient than the really big-ticket M&A deals, which are getting government scrutiny and getting hold up and regulatory approval.

併購進展順利。請記住，我們主要是一家中間市場投資銀行。因此，我們進行中型交易，從 1 億美元估值到 10 億美元估值，從 1,000 億美元融資到 10 億美元融資。因此，這些實際上比真正的大額併購交易更具彈性，後者正在受到政府審查並獲得監管部門的批准。

So those seem to be moving along reasonably well. The place we haven't seen a lot, we've seen actually more than we saw last year is in the IPO side of the business, although a lot of IPOs that are kind of prepped and ready, but people aren't pulling the trigger and go into market. And some of that's been the aftermarket performance of the IPOs that have happened so far, but we can continue to get the broadening of the equity markets and with the high rise in the equity markets, you could see some of that begin to come.

所以這些似乎進展得相當順利。我們還沒有看到太多的地方，實際上我們看到的比去年更多的是在業務的 IPO 方面，儘管很多 IPO 已經做好了準備，但人們並沒有拉動觸發並進入市場。其中一些是迄今為止已發生的 IPO 的售後表現，但我們可以繼續擴大股票市場，隨著股票市場的高漲，你可以看到其中一些開始出現。

And then we have a pretty decent pipeline in the convert side and the follow-on side. So it's broad based, it's pretty encouraging. And I think the backdrop is very favorable for a good second half and a great '25. Frankly, we think we've got all the pieces we need to take advantage of the markets.

然後我們在轉換端和後續端有一個相當不錯的管道。所以它的基礎廣泛，非常令人鼓舞。我認為這個背景非常有利於下半場的良好表現和偉大的 25 年。坦白說，我們認為我們已經具備了利用市場所需的所有條件。

I'd maybe just very quickly add on the consumer side. Our improvement is very durable, sticky fee revenue. So the card changes that both John and Bruce mentioned, we reissued 3.5 million debit cards last quarter, in a new contract that just drops directly to the bottom line is predictable and will stick around service charges has bottomed out.

我可能很快就會添加消費者方面的內容。我們的改進是非常持久的、黏性的費用收入。所以約翰和布魯斯都提到的卡的變化，我們上個季度重新發行了350萬張借記卡，在新合約中直接下降到底線是可以預見的，並且會堅持服務費已經觸底。

Mortgage, we think will be in the zone. I could give a little bit of favourability if rates if rates drop a little bit. And then the Wealth AUM growth is sticky, durable, repeatable fee income. So that's what we're calling for a steady, continued upward momentum on consumer without a lot of volatility.

抵押貸款，我們認為將在該區域。如果利率下降一點，我可以給予一點支持。然後，財富管理規模的成長是黏性的、持久的、可重複的費用收入。因此，這就是我們所呼籲的消費者穩定、持續的上升勢頭，而沒有太大的波動。

I'll just add one more thing is, we're beginning to see it's interesting because the private banking teams never had a capital market business at their prior employer. And so we're starting to see some crossover activity among the private banking clients are coming on board in the capital markets. I don't know if that's a second half thing, but I think that's a brand new opportunity from a client base that was never really resident at Citizens before.

我還要補充一件事，我們開始發現這很有趣，因為私人銀行團隊在他們之前的雇主中從未有過資本市場業務。因此，我們開始看到私人銀行客戶之間的一些交叉活動正在資本市場上出現。我不知道這是否是後半部分的事情，但我認為這是一個全新的機會，來自以前從未真正居住在公民的客戶群。

Terrific. Thank you for that color. And then wanted to ask a little bit about the reserve and specifically the Office reserve. I think we're up at 11.1% now, which is, of course, very, very high. I guess I'm curious about the factors, as you might think about that would allow you to start sort of absorbing losses with that existing reserve. In other words, what sort of allows that Office reserve to start to come down rather than to continue to tick up. I think when you talk about the reserve more broadly, you've pointed to non-core run-off as being the thing that might allow the reserve to benefit. But just curious about how Office sits in there in particular?

了不起。謝謝你的那個顏色。然後想詢問一些有關儲備金，特別是辦公室儲備金的問題。我認為我們現在的成長率為 11.1%，當然，這是非常非常高的。我想我對這些因素很好奇，因為你可能會認為這會讓你開始用現有的儲備來吸收損失。換句話說，什麼樣的方式可以讓辦公室儲備金開始下降而不是繼續上升。我認為，當您更廣泛地談論儲備金時，您已經指出非核心徑流可能會讓儲備金受益。但只是好奇 Office 是如何放置在那裡的？

Yeah, I would say -- I'll start and let John add color. But I'd say the Office, there's still a lot of uncertainty in that space. Just the -- what we're seeing in terms of valuations, cap rates, the path of future interest rates. And so I think we've played it conservatively with having a big reserve and then just kind of leading the charge offs run through while maintaining the reserve.

是的，我會說——我會開始讓約翰添加色彩。但我想說的是，辦公室在這個領域仍然存在著許多不確定性。只是我們在估值、上限利率和未來利率路徑方面看到的情況。所以我認為我們採取了保守的做法，擁有大量的儲備金，然後在維持儲備金的同時領先沖銷。

I think you'd have to get to a point where you started to see things solidify a little bit and start to move in the right direction, so to speak. And I don't really see that happening actually for -- certainly this year will happen maybe sometime in next year. So we're kind of prepared for a slog here on office that we've got our arms around the properties. We know what the maturity schedules are, we've got good people working with the borrowers to deliver good outcomes.

我認為你必須達到這樣一個地步：你開始看到事情有點固化，並開始朝著正確的方向前進，可以這麼說。我真的不認為這種情況會發生——當然今年可能會在明年的某個時候發生。因此，我們已經做好了在辦公室裡苦苦掙扎的準備，我們已經抓住了這些房產。我們知道到期時間表是什麼，我們有優秀的人員與借款人合作以取得良好的成果。

I don't expect we'll see any big surprises, but we'll continue to, I think, just work our way through it, at the point where we hit a kind of feel better moment when things start to look like they're moving in the right direction. That's when we'll be able to start to draw down on the reserve and we'll reap a nice benefit when that happens, John?

我不指望我們會看到任何大的驚喜，但我想，我們會繼續努力解決這個問題，當事情開始看起來像這樣時，我們會感覺更好。到那時我們就可以開始動用儲備金，當這種情況發生時我們將獲得很大的好處，約翰？

Yeah, I would just to echo that point. I mean, just having some growing confidence in valuations and seeing maybe transactions occur could be in all likelihood a '25 -- 2025 outcome. And so you know that this is a multi-quarter, probably multiyear journey that we're on. But given all the balance sheet strength that we have in our capital position, we feel really confident that any uncertainties are expressed in the reserve and any anything else would be supported by the capital.

是的，我只是重複這一點。我的意思是，只要對估值越來越有信心，並看到可能發生交易，很可能會在 25 至 2025 年出現結果。所以你知道，這是我們正在進行的一個持續多個季度、甚至可能持續多年的旅程。但考慮到我們在資本狀況上所擁有的資產負債表實力，我們非常有信心任何不確定性都體現在儲備金中，而任何其他因素都將得到資本的支持。

I would also mention that we're working the book down, we started out at $4.2 billion. We're down to down to $3.3 billion, so we're lowering the exposure every quarter, we're working --

我還要提到的是，我們正在縮減這本書的規模，我們的起始價為 42 億美元。我們的資金已降至 33 億美元，因此我們每個季度都會降低風險敞口，我們正在努力——

Some of it has a good way through repayments and some of it's through charge offs.

其中一些有很好的還款方式，有些則透過沖銷。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Unless it is coming down.

除非它快要下來了。

Exactly and in fact, we're getting some kind of payoffs and paydowns we're getting -- we're working through the riskier credits. And when we're having conversations that have been accelerated, given our maturity profile that we've had the opportunity to really lean in with our borrowers. And when and if we've come to sort of P&I extensions, we've been able to extract in many cases, a better positioning and collateral. So this is a multi-quarter journey, and we're feeling good about it.

確切地說，事實上，我們正​​在獲得某種回報和回報——我們正在努力解決風險較高的信貸問題。當我們的對話加速時，考慮到我們的成熟度，我們有機會真正與借款人建立聯繫。當我們進行保賠擴展時，我們在許多情況下都能夠獲得更好的定位和抵押品。所以這是一個多季度的旅程，我們對此感覺良好。

Just to elevate to the second part of your question, is that away from that away from the General Office. We're still feeling good about what we're seeing in the consumer metrics in commercial C&I. We we run our reserve calculations based on scenarios. Clearly, the risk of recession seems to be less than it was a couple of quarters ago.

只是要提升到你問題的第二部分，那就是遠離總辦公室。我們仍然對商業 C&I 的消費者指標感到滿意。我們根據場景進行儲備計算。顯然，經濟衰退的風險似乎比幾個季度前要小。

And so our need to keep adding to reserves for rest of the book would seem to be abating somewhat. So that's why when we say we'll continue to see we're calling out a slightly lower charge-off number in Q3. And then we have the trend of being able to draw down on those reserves, which I think we'll accelerate in coming quarters.

因此，我們為本書的其餘部分繼續增加儲備的需要似乎有所減弱。因此，這就是為什麼當我們說我們將繼續看到我們在第三季提出略低的沖銷數量。然後我們就有了能夠動用這些儲備的趨勢，我認為我們將在未來幾季加速這一趨勢。

Perfect. All right. Thank you all very much.

完美的。好的。非常感謝大家。

Ken Usdin, Jefferies.

肯‧烏斯丁，傑弗里斯。

Okay, great. Good morning. Hey, John, and Bruce, on the cost side, so you guys are doing a really job keeping costs flat. You mentioned earlier you're hiring some bankers. You obviously have the wealth management people. I'm just wondering if you can help us understand like the growth that you have there and like where the top and extra cost program are in terms of the offsets to be able to kind of still hold the line.

好的，太好了。早安.嘿，約翰和布魯斯，在成本方面，你們在保持成本穩定方面做得非常出色。您之前提到您正在僱用一些銀行家。顯然你有財富管理人員。我只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解您在那裡的成長，以及最高和額外成本計劃在抵消方面的情況，以便能夠保持不變。

I know that it's kind of in line with your full year guidance, but just the puts and takes of kind of where we are at this point of the year, in terms of, if there's more to come on top, you know, to offset those. And that was those hires and the growth and the strong investment banking results, et cetera? Thanks.

我知道這與您的全年指導一致，但只是我們今年此時的情況，如果還有更多的事情需要彌補的話，您知道，可以抵消那些。那就是那些招募、成長和強勁的投資銀行業績，等等？謝謝。

Thanks, Ken, for the question. Just talking about TOP, it's been emblematic of who we are, as you know, for a number of years, the top line program is going to generate, call it $135 million or so run rate benefits, when you get to the end of this year and 2024. The underpinnings of that program, we often have vendor contributions as a big driver.

謝謝肯提出這個問題。就說到 TOP，它一直是我們的象徵，如您所知，多年來，當您完成此計劃時，頂線計劃將產生約 1.35 億美元的運行率效益年和2024 年。 ，我們經常將供應商的貢獻作為重要推動力。

We launched a data and analytics contribution this year, which will continue into future years. We've had really interesting ability to invest in our fraud program and a number of other opportunities, including branch rationalization that have underpinned a really strong top program this year. And that, of course, is the way over time, we have been and been able to invest in entrepreneurial and innovative initiatives while not needing to cover that and to self-fund those kinds of things.

我們今年推出了數據和分析貢獻，並將持續到未來幾年。我們有非常有趣的能力來投資我們的詐欺計劃和許多其他機會，包括支撐今年真正強大的頂級計劃的分支機構合理化。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們已經並且能夠投資於創業和創新舉措，而無需承擔這些費用並自籌資金。

The TOP 10 program, you know, we're working on and we're feeling good about the early opportunities. I think we've launched some analysis in the generative AI space, and we're live on a couple of use cases. And I think we're going to see our ability to broaden out there pretty nicely in terms of underpinning the next top program.

您知道，我們正在開發 TOP 10 計劃，我們對早期的機會感覺良好。我認為我們已經在生成人工智慧領域進行了一些分析，並且我們正在研究幾個用例。我認為我們將看到我們在支持下一個頂級項目方面很好地擴展的能力。

There's a half dozen of other areas, expanding data and analytics. Well, you know what we're doing in our technology space, which converging our platforms with our ability to converge our mainframes and -- So I do think that we feel very good about the ongoing ability to make investments and self-fund those investments through the TOP program as you get into the end of '24 and into '25. And maybe I'll just stop there and see if there's anything else others would like to add.

還有六個其他領域，正在擴展數據和分析。嗯，你知道我們在技術領域正在做什麼，它將我們的平台與我們融合大型主機的能力融合在一起，並且 - 所以我確實認為我們對持續進行投資和為這些投資提供資金的能力感到非常滿意當您進入24 年底和25 年時，透過TOP 規劃。也許我會就此打住，看看是否有其他人想補充的內容。

Okay, great. Alright, second question, I know that you issued $400 million preferred and redeemed $300 million at in early July and I think with that, you're still kind of in the one, two; one, three zone. Only one, three preferred to RWAs, as you contemplate the buyback. As you think about the SCB and all that, like, how do you just think about the overall capital stack in terms of like what your ultimate goals are for optimization of your capital position?

好的，太好了。好吧，第二個問題，我知道您在 7 月初發行了 4 億美元優先股並贖回了 3 億美元，我認為這樣一來，您仍然處於第一、第二；一、三區。當你考慮回購時，只有一三個人更喜歡 RWA。當您考慮 SCB 之類的問題時，您如何考慮整體資本堆棧，例如您優化資本頭寸的最終目標是什麼？

We're feeling pretty good about where we stand in the capital space. I mean, I think we basically think that around [1.25] is fine. We end up with that, we probably have more CET1. So when you look at the overall Tier one stack, we've got higher quality capital, given the fact that we have more CET1 driving our overall Tier one.

我們對自己在資本領域的地位感覺非常好。我的意思是，我認為我們基本上認為 [1.25] 左右就可以了。我們最終得到的結果是，我們可能有更多的 CET1。因此，當您查看整體一級堆疊時，我們擁有更高品質的資本，因為我們有更多的 CET1 來推動整體一級。

1.25 is fine is probably we probably won't go much below that. And a range of 1.25 to 1.50 of RWAs is probably where we'll operate. We have a number of issues out there that are coming into the ability to into call periods and into '25. And so there could be some opportunities. To refinance just like we did this year, there are some very interesting refinance opportunities to lower our preferred coupon, that we're paying on the preferred capital. So that's something we'll keep an eye on as we go forward into '25.

1.25 就可以了，但我們可能不會低於這個值太多。我們可能會採用 1.25 到 1.50 的 RWA 範圍。我們遇到了許多問題，這些問題正在影響進入呼叫期和 25 年的能力。所以可能會有一些機會。為了像我們今年那樣進行再融資，有一些非常有趣的再融資機會來降低我們支付的優先資本的優先票。因此，在進入 25 年後，我們將密切關注這一點。

Okay, great. And sorry, just one just wanted to follow up on that last one, just the -- So the RWAs have been coming down and your average earning assets have been kind of flat. And I know you talked a little bit about this earlier, but is kind of flattish on total balance sheet size, average earning assets. Is that the right way to think about things going forward, given all the moving parts on both sides of the balance sheet?

好的，太好了。抱歉，只是想跟進最後一項，只是——所以 RWA 一直在下降，你的平均收益資產一直持平。我知道你之前談過這一點，但資產負債表總規模、平均收益資產有點持平。考慮到資產負債表兩側的所有變化因素，這是思考未來事情的正確方法嗎？

Yeah. I mean for '24, I think the answer to that is yes, with growing RWAs. As I mentioned, we have excess liquidity at June 30. And you could see the overall balance sheet being basically in the same zone as where we are today. But the ability to basically deploy some excess liquidity into lending in the second half is really the plan. So we would see RWAs and loans growing from June 30 to the end of the year.

是的。我的意思是，對於 24 年，我認為答案是肯定的，隨著 RWA 的不斷增長。正如我所提到的，截至 6 月 30 日，我們的流動性過剩。但下半年將一些過剩流動性基本上用於貸款的能力確實是計劃。因此，我們將看到 RWA 和貸款從 6 月 30 日到年底都在成長。

Yeah, RWA -- we could see some growth though, in the I'd say, spot deposits and spot loans in Q4 above that about because we are pulling that liquidity. So just to be clear.

是的，RWA——我們可以看到一些增長，我想說，第四季度的現貨存款和現貨貸款高於這一水平，因為我們正在拉動流動性。所以要明確一點。

Yes, I agree, but we're going to see deposit growth and loan growth. It's just that given the excess securities that we have on balance sheet and overall interest-earning assets are about of our (multiple speakers)

是的，我同意，但我們將看到存款成長和貸款成長。只是考慮到我們資產負債表上的過剩證券和整體生息資產大約是我們的（多位發言者）

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Manon Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

曼農‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning. If I tried to back into the 4Q NII number using your full year guide and the 3Q guide, it implies a 3% to 4% quarter on quarter increase in NII in 4Q. My question there is what you need to see that uptick in NII. I mean, I know there's some benefit from the swaps front, but do you also need to see loan growth? Do you need to see deposit costs continuing to come down? Do you need any help from rates? Can you help us frame that.

嗨，早安。如果我嘗試使用你們的全年指南和第三季度指南來回顧第四季度的 NII 數字，這意味著第四季度的 NII 環比增長 3% 到 4%。我的問題是，你需要什麼才能看到 NII 的上升。我的意思是，我知道掉期交易有一些好處，但您是否還需要看到貸款成長？您需要看到存款成本持續下降嗎？您需要費率方面的協助嗎？你能幫我們設計一下嗎？

Sure. Yeah. And I'd say broadly that the majority of the increase in 4Q is really coming from net interest margin rebounding, show just allowing all of those positive tailwinds from net interest margin across the whole platform from Non-core, the front book, back book dynamics and all of those drivers is the majority of the increase in NII for 4Q.

當然。是的。我想說，第四季度的大部分增長實際上來自淨息差反彈，顯示只是允許整個平台的淨息差帶來所有積極的推動力，從非核心、前賬本、後賬本動態和所有這些驅動因素是第四季度NII 成長的主要因素。

However, there is a meaningful contribution expected from loan growth as well. And we talked about loan growth earlier in the call and how all three businesses, Private Bank, consumer and commercial are all expected to contribute to that in terms of how that plays out for the second half. When it comes to just that net interest margin number, as I mentioned, Noncore, front-book, back-book, you also have increase in deposits that you just heard Bruce talk about that increase has a better funding mix where we'll have more deposits and less wholesale funding as you get into the second half.

然而，預計貸款成長也會做出有意義的貢獻。我們在電話會議早些時候討論了貸款成長，以及私人銀行、消費者和商業這三大業務預計將如何為下半年的成長做出貢獻。當談到淨利差數字時，正如我所提到的，非核心、前帳本、後帳本，你剛才聽到布魯斯談到的存款也有所增加，這種增加有更好的融資組合，我們將有進入下半年，存款增加，批發資金減少。

Your other question about that deposit pricing and the rate cut, I think we're somewhat well balanced around whether the Fed cuts or not. We tend to have some offsetting forces there where we have some asset sensitivity and a net floating position that benefits with rates being a little higher, but then that often the higher for longer impact on deposit migration tends to keep us close to neutral.

關於存款定價和降息的另一個問題，我認為我們在聯準會是否降息方面保持了一定的平衡。我們往往會產生一些抵消力量，因為我們有一定的資產敏感性和淨浮動頭寸，利率稍高一些會受益，但通常較高的利率對存款遷移的長期影響往往會使我們接近中性。

And so whether we get a cut or not. I think we're feeling pretty good about the fourth quarter NII, being a nice rebound and a meaningful increase versus 3Q. And then the last part of it out there. It is again all the initiatives and how, for example, balance sheet optimization and private bank are all accretive to net interest margin on a quarterly basis.

所以無論我們是否得到削減。我認為我們對第四季度的 NII 感覺非常好，與第三季度相比出現了良好的反彈和有意義的增長。然後是最後一部分。這又是所有舉措以及資產負債表優化和私人銀行等如何按季度增加淨利差。

And I would just add to that as well. But we also think that a reminder that the Q4 is a seasonally strong quarter for fees. So I think there could that rebounded in NII kicking in in Q4, strong fee quarter, continued discipline on expenses, credit seemingly moving in the right direction. And then continued share repurchase. So we put that all together, you could have kind of a nice uptick in the Q4 results.

我也想補充一下。但我們也認為這提醒人們，第四季是費用季節性強勁的季度。因此，我認為NII可能會在第四季度反彈，收費季度強勁，支出持續嚴格，信貸似乎正朝著正確的方向發展。然後繼續進行股票回購。因此，我們將所有這些放在一起，第四季度的業績可能會有不錯的提升。

That's really helpful. And then as a follow-up on the commercial middle market side, you outlined several positive drivers for lines picking up in the back half.

這真的很有幫助。然後，作為商業中間市場方面的後續行動，您概述了後半段線路回升的幾個積極驅動因素。

Does that come with higher utilization, or do you need to see a lower rate for utilization to pick up and maybe how does the uncertainty around the election? How is that factoring into your conversations with clients?

這是否會帶來更高的利用率，或者您是否需要看到更低的利用率才能回升，也許選舉的不確定性如何？這對您與客戶的對話有何影響？

Yeah. What we're seeing, what we're assuming in our utilization growth is it's largely in the capital call and subscription lines. So we're seeing a little bit in the middle market. So I think the middle market trend will be a little bit longer. What we've seen our middle market companies do is kind of take their leverage levels down with economic uncertainty.

是的。我們所看到的，我們假設的利用率成長主要來自資本調用和認購額度。所以我們在中間市場看到了一些。所以我認為中間市場的趨勢會更長。我們看到我們的中間市場公司所做的就是在經濟不確定性的情況下降低槓桿水平。

So as the economy begins to show signs of stabilization or some more certainty stabilization, maybe they get a little more aggressive investing in their businesses. And I was with a whole bunch of middle market CEOs last week at every single one of them said they have renewed investment plans over the next 18 months. So that will take a little bit longer.

因此，當經濟開始顯示出穩定的跡像或更確定的穩定時，也許他們會對自己的業務進行更積極的投資。上週我和一大堆中間市場的執行長在一起，他們每個人都表示他們已經更新了未來 18 個月的投資計畫。所以這需要更長的時間。

And I don't really see a massive impact from the election. I think you may get some market volatility based on what someone says day in day out. But I think the medium term trend is intact and we are seeing I mean, the playbook we're going to run in California and Florida, which Bruce mentioned is going to mirror the playbook we ran in New York where we're having just extremely strong client acquisition as we bring experienced market bankers onto the platform and they bring their clients with them.

我並沒有真正看到選舉產生巨大影響。我認為你可能會根據某人日復一日的言論而得到一些市場波動。但我認為中期趨勢完好無損，我們正在看到，我的意思是，我們將在加利福尼亞州和佛羅裡達州運行的劇本，布魯斯提到，這將反映我們在紐約運行的劇本，我們在紐約運行的劇本非常強大的客戶獲取能力，因為我們將經驗豐富的市場銀行家引入平台，他們也帶來了客戶。

So very early days, but those pipelines are building kind of literally within two months of hiring a new banker. So they won't be huge numbers at the outset, but it will be another tailwind for us.

雖然還處於早期階段，但這些管道實際上是在僱用新銀行家的兩個月內就開始建立的。因此，一開始它們的數量不會很大，但這對我們來說將是另一個推動力。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

John Pancari, Evercore.

約翰·潘卡里，Evercore。

Morning, Bruce, I think you talked about the expectation, medium-term plan to shrink the CRE exposure incrementally from here. Just wanted to get an idea of where you think that could settle out. I mean, right now, your commercial real estate loans are about 130% of your risk-based capital plus reserves? Where do you think it goes from that perspective post this expected runoff?

早安，布魯斯，我想你談到了從現在開始逐步縮小商業房地產風險敞口的預期中期計劃。只是想了解一下您認為可以解決的問題。我的意思是，現在你們的商業房地產貸款大約是你們基於風險的資本加準備金的130%？從這個角度來看，您認為在這次預期決選後，情況會走向何方？

Yeah, I'd say, over the medium term we'd probably take the pure commercial book down at least 25%. And that'll come across the asset classes, obviously want to be smaller in Office, Multifamily, we can bleed that down a bit since we took a big upsurge with investors deal. We will make room for some CRE opportunities with the private bankers. It could have important part of their customer base. And so there will be a little bit of offset to that.

是的，我想說，從中期來看，我們可能會將純商業書籍的價格降低至少 25%。這將涉及資產類別，顯然希望辦公室、多戶住宅規模較小，自從我們與投資者交易大幅增加以來，我們可以稍微減少一點。我們將為私人銀行家提供一些商業房地產機會。它可能擁有其客戶群的重要組成部分。因此，這將會有一點抵消。

But that kind of directionally gives you a sense as to kind of what the plans are. And as I said earlier in the call, I think that we're making room for more C&I growth that we'd like to kind of flex and have a bigger loan capital allocation to C&I and a smaller to CRE over time.

但這種方向性可以讓你了解計畫是什麼。正如我之前在電話會議中所說，我認為我們正在為更多的C&I 成長騰出空間，我們希望能夠靈活調整，並隨著時間的推移，向C&I 提供更大的貸款資本配置，而向CRE提供較小的貸款資本配置。

Right. Okay. Thank you for that. That's helpful. And related to that, my second one is on the private banking side. First of all, on the deposit side, the $4 billion in deposits, I know 81% of that is commercial, 36% is that is DDA. How much of those deposits are deposits with venture capital and private equity firms or related to that industry?

正確的。好的。謝謝你。這很有幫助。與此相關的是，我的第二個目標是私人銀行業務。首先，在存款方面，40億美元的存款，我知道其中81%是商業存款，36%是DDA存款。這些存款中有多少是創投和私募股權公司的存款或與該行業相關的存款？

Yes, of the commercial and business banking oriented deposits, the majority are from private equity and venture firms. But I would note that it's heavily led by operating deposits. And so way that the relationship actually works is starting us their cash management operating bank, which is why the DDA and CV percentage is so high in the business.

是的，在商業銀行存款中，大部分來自自私募股權和創投公司。但我要指出的是，它主要由經營存款主導。因此，這種關係真正發揮作用的方式是為我們建立他們的現金管理營運銀行，這就是為什麼 DDA 和 CV 百分比在該業務中如此高的原因。

So they're stable, predictable and generally lendable deposits. So we're pleased with the profile. If you think of the loans that have come in. Obviously, both the LDR and the Private Bank is quite low and we've got a good amount of liquidity padding when you would have to lend ability of the deposit base to continue to drive loan growth even within the profile, just the private bank.

因此，它們是穩定、可預測且通常可貸出的存款。所以我們對這個配置很滿意。如果你想想已經進來的貸款 顯然，LDR 和私人銀行都相當低，當你必須利用存款基礎的借貸能力來繼續推動貸款時，我們有大量的流動性填充即使在個人資料中也有增長，只是私人銀行。

So we're pleased with the quality. That you're seeing the loan book diversified to consumers, the deposit book has still remained in that sort of 80, 20 split. But given the pace of growth, that obviously suggests that the consumer business is also growing at a pretty healthy clip. That just takes some time, and we do expect that to catch up and it will diversify over time to more of a 60, 40, maybe over the longer-term horizon 50, 50.

所以我們對品質很滿意。你會看到貸款帳簿向消費者多樣化，而存款帳簿仍然保持在 80 和 20 的比例。但考慮到成長速度，這顯然表明消費者業務也在以相當健康的速度成長。這只是需要一些時間，我們確實希望能夠趕上，並且隨著時間的推移，它會多樣化到更多的 60、40，也許在更長期的範圍內達到 50、50。

But with more loans deposits and deposits and loans that are in the higher rates -- the higher rates have held back on mortgage, obviously, and then the business banking commercial deposit growth is quicker and lumpier, but we do expect that to continue to change over time. And we're pleased with the strength of the consumer opening these private banking offices, which should attract more of a high net worth individual as well.

但隨著更多的貸款存款以及利率更高的存款和貸款——顯然，更高的利率抑制了抵押貸款，然後商業銀行的商業存款成長更快、更不穩定，但我們確實預計這種情況將繼續改變隨著時間的推移。我們對開設這些私人銀行辦事處的消費者實力感到滿意，這也應該會吸引更多高淨值人士。

Okay, thank you. Then one last one. The if you could just maybe update us on the likelihood of additional team hires on the private banking side and then the two wealth AUM going up to about $3.6 billion there. I know you acknowledged that might be tougher log. And but it looks like towards the end of the quarter, you had that big jump in AUM. Just curious if you could give a little bit of color around what's driving that recent upturn?

好的謝謝。然後是最後一張。您是否可以向我們介紹私人銀行方面額外招募團隊的可能性，然後那裡的兩項財富管理規模將達到約 36 億美元。我知道你承認這可能是更艱難的日誌。但看起來在本季末，您的資產管理規模出現了大幅躍升。只是好奇您能否對推動近期經濟好轉的因素進行一些說明？

Yes, I'll start and pass it to Brendan, but I just want to make an overriding point is that we want to demonstrate that we can run this as a profitable business. And so when we initiated the launch of the private bank, we put some markers out there as to where we were, what we were going to do this year hitting breakeven in the fourth quarter and then next year getting to numbers that had $9 billion of loans, $10 billion of AUM, $11 billion of deposits, that's translates to 5% accretion to our bottom line. And so we're still building the business. We're building the service levels. We're making investments in more support people and we feel really good about the trajectory that we're on.

是的，我將開始並將其傳遞給布倫丹，但我只想提出一個最重要的觀點，即我們希望證明我們可以將其作為盈利業務來運營。因此，當我們開始推出私人銀行時，我們做了一些標記，說明我們所處的位置，今年我們要做什麼，在第四季度實現盈虧平衡，然後明年達到 90 億美元的數字。美元的資產管理規模、110 億美元的存款，這意味著我們的利潤增加了5%。所以我們仍在發展業務。我們正在提高服務水準。我們正在對更多支援人員進行投資，我們對目前的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。

We want to get that right, want to get that flow flywheel running and hit those numbers before we start going crazy making investments in other regions and other opportunities. Having said that, if there are particularly unique situations that we can kind of fit in and execute over the next 18 months that are important locations and they don't affect our ability to hit the numbers. We'll be open to that.

我們希望做到這一點，希望讓流量飛輪運轉起來，並在我們開始瘋狂地在其他地區和其他機會進行投資之前達到這些數字。話雖如此，如果有特別獨特的情況我們可以在未來 18 個月內適應並執行，那麼這些情況都是重要的位置，並且它們不會影響我們實現目標的能力。我們對此持開放態度。

And then the other thing is the wealth management side, we had a strong base with court felt we knew ultimately that we were going to have to expand the capabilities that we had by bringing in more teams. And the focus has been geographically situated teams that can be contiguous with the private banking teams that we've set up in San Francisco, Boston, New York and Florida.

另一件事是財富管理方面，我們擁有強大的基礎，法院認為我們最終知道我們必須透過引入更多團隊來擴大我們的能力。重點是地理位置上的團隊，這些團隊可以與我們在舊金山、波士頓、紐約和佛羅裡達州設立的私人銀行團隊相鄰。

And so so far, but able to bring two great teams, high-quality everything, one in San Francisco, one in Boston. That's accounting for a big chunk of that rise in AUM with more to transfer in from their customer base that we have momentum there. We also have a ton of folks interested in joining our platform so we can have those conversations and keep bringing those wealth teams in because they don't really impact the near term financials negatively that usually come in around breakeven with an opportunity to quickly turn into profitability.

到目前為止，卻能夠帶來兩支偉大的球隊，高品質的一切，一支在舊金山，一支在波士頓。這佔了資產管理規模成長的很大一部分，而且我們在那裡有動力從他們的客戶群轉移更多。我們還有很多人有興趣加入我們的平台，因此我們可以進行這些對話並繼續引入這些財富團隊，因為他們不會真正對短期財務產生負面影響，而短期財務通常會在盈虧平衡點附近出現，並有機會迅速轉變為獲利能力。

So Brendan, you can add to that?

那麼布蘭登，可以補充一下嗎？

Yes, you nailed it at all or you said, I'd just say on the wealth side, we'll be very selective on the banking expansion until not only when they have confidence in hitting the financials. But also, it's still built and we're very pleased with how the book to build is going and we're attracting clients. The market is still quite disrupted, both disrupted both on the client side as well as the talent side. But we're going to be very thoughtful and make sure that we're only attracting the highest quality teams. We're being very selective on that.

是的，你完全做到了，或者你說，我只是說在財富方面，我們將非常有選擇性地進行銀行業擴張，直到他們有信心衝擊金融市場。而且，它仍在構建中，我們對這本書的構建進展非常滿意，並且我們正在吸引客戶。市場仍然相當混亂，無論是在客戶方面還是在人才方面都受到了乾擾。但我們會非常深思熟慮，並確保我們只吸引最優質的團隊。我們對此非常有選擇性。

On the wealth side and just said, look this for really the first time in our history, I think that our right to win in private wealth is at an all-time high and there's a lot of inbounds we're getting from high some of the highest quality advisers in the market. We're also being very selective there. I would remind you all that we have long been on the hunt for scale here, and we've looked at a lot of acquisitions. We've obviously done one or twos over the years, but the economics have been a little out of reach with 10 plus year paybacks on tangible book value when you're buying or AUM's, given the multiples that some of the private equity firms are paying.

在財富方面，剛才說過，這在我們歷史上確實是第一次，我認為我們在私人財富方面獲勝的權利處於歷史最高水平，並且我們從一些高位獲得了很多收入。 。我們在那裡也非常有選擇性。我想提醒大家，我們長期以來一直在尋求規模化，並且考慮過很多收購。顯然，這些年來我們已經做了一兩次，但考慮到一些私募股權公司的市盈率，當你購買或資產管理規模（AUM）時，有形賬面價值需要10 多年的回報，從經濟學上來說有點遙不可及。

So the economics of the talent acquisition are significantly more attractive to us, obviously, with de minimus tangible book value hit. And to Bruce's point, there's not really a large J-curve in the short term. So we're very pleased with the inbounds and talent that we're getting. We expect to continue to selectively add top end market well talent to really round out the bankers that we hired. So we're looking forward to a strong second half of the year there.

因此，顯然，人才獲取的經濟學對我們更具吸引力，有形帳面價值受到的影響微乎其微。就 Bruce 而言，短期內並沒有真正大的 J 曲線。因此，我們對我們獲得的入球和人才感到非常滿意。我們希望繼續有選擇地增加高端市場人才，以真正完善我們僱用的銀行家。因此，我們期待下半年的強勁表現。

Great. Thanks, Brendan.

偉大的。謝謝，布倫丹。

Your next question will come from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

您的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行的 Gerard Cassidy。

Thank you, good morning Bruce, good morning Jhon you talked in give us good detail about the office portfolio, commercial real estate and I think you said that some of your assumptions in the bottom left-hand corner of slide 14, you show that this downturn is far worse than historical downturns. Can you share with us two ideas or two answers. First is when you look back, I think you guys have been aggressively attacking this portfolio for just over a year now, when you look back at those early workouts in the second quarter of '23, how it how in the assumptions that you're using and compare to today?

謝謝你，早安布魯斯，早安約翰，你給我們詳細介紹了辦公大樓投資組合、商業房地產，我想你說過你在幻燈片 14 左下角的一些假設，你表明了這一點經濟衰退比歷史衰退嚴重得多。您能與我們分享兩個想法或兩個答案嗎？首先是當你回顧過去時，我認為你們已經在一年多的時間裡積極攻擊這個投資組合，當你回顧 23 年第二季度的早期訓練時，假設你是這樣的使用並與今天進行比較？

And then second, on what Bruce said maybe this office problem doesn't resolve itself until sometime next year. What are you seeing incrementally in terms of valuations or losses is still deteriorating in office or has it just stabilized and we just got to work through these portfolios.

其次，就布魯斯所說，也許這個辦公室問題要等到明年某個時候才能解決。您所看到的估值或損失在辦公室中仍在惡化，或者剛剛穩定下來，我們只需處理這些投資組合。

Yes, I'll go ahead and start off, Gerard. I mean, I think that earlier, but what's the what's evolved over the last year or so has been our outlook with respect to valuations NOI and what the rent rollovers would would actually entail and at what speed we would see deterioration.

是的，我要開始了，傑拉德。我的意思是，我認為較早，但過去一年左右的發展是我們對 NOI 估值的展望，以及租金展期實際上會帶來什麼，以及我們會看到惡化的速度。

So of course, our reserve levels are higher now than they were a year ago. We do every quarter we endeavor to put a ring-fence around the our exposures and give it our best attempt at forecasting what we think the of the evolution will be in valuations and NOI.

當然，我們現在的儲備水準比一年前還要高。我們每季都會努力為我們的風險敞口設置圍欄，並盡最大努力預測我們認為的估值和 NOI 的演變。

I'd say that, yes, this quarter we've done that again and we feel like we've leaned in with this 11.1%, which really when you look at the property valuations peak to trough, that 72% has grown over the last year, and that those have been the main drivers for why after charging off, we still end up with this reserve of 11.1%. But I'd say that [FEDO] was there still a lot of uncertainty left. But but I think there the variability, we're hopeful that the variability and this will start to decline as we continue to work through our maturities and have had conversations with our borrowers and extract additional collateral and work through paydowns where we can. This will be a multi-quarter event and it will take into 2025 a good, there was a drive.

我想說的是，是的，這個季度我們再次做到了這一點，我們感覺我們已經接近了11.1%，當你看到房地產估值從高峰到低谷時，你會發現72% 已經增長了11.1% 。但我想說，[FEDO] 仍然存在著許多不確定性。但我認為存在可變性，我們希望隨著我們繼續努力解決到期問題，並與借款人進行對話，提取額外的抵押品並儘可能完成還款，我們希望這種可變性將開始下降。這將是一個跨季度的活動，並將持續到 2025 年，這是一個很好的推動力。

I would just add that I do think the Fed starting to move rates lower will certainly be a help here. So part of the reason the losses ended up higher than what kind of potentially we thought back in early '23 at those cap rates going up, you had inflation that was impacting NOI. and things like that. And so I think we've seen inflation now leveling off. And if the Fed starts to move rates down, that could also start to move things in the other direction. It's too early to call a victory here, but there are some positive signs. I think lease upgrades generally are actually holding or potentially getting a little better as return to office picks up. But that again, that's not that significant in the big scheme of things.

我想補充一點，我確實認為聯準會開始降低利率肯定會有所幫助。因此，損失最終高於我們 23 年初在資本化率上升時的預期，部分原因是通貨膨脹影響了 NOI。諸如此類的事情。所以我認為我們已經看到通貨膨脹現在趨於平穩。如果聯準會開始降低利率，事情也可能開始朝另一個方向發展。現在宣布勝利還為時過早，但已經出現了一些積極的跡象。我認為，隨著重返辦公室的速度加快，租賃升級通常會持續或可能會有所改善。但話又說回來，這在大計畫中並不那麼重要。

Brendan is it fair to say that the second derivative is the rate of deterioration that you guys are seeing? Is it slowing in their office or?

布倫丹（Brendan）可以公平地說二階導數是你們看到的惡化率嗎？他們的辦公室速度慢了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And then as a follow-up, you guys talked a lot about private equity. And you have in your slide 17, you show some great numbers. Obviously, number one and the sponsor business and your capital markets business is benefiting from that. So the question I have is and it's not on the capital call or subscription lines, but it seems over the years for banks to win in this capital markets business with sponsors, you have to use your balance sheet to win this business. You've got to lend money to the sponsors. So can you share with us your exposure to, I guess one of the line items in one of the regulatory reports, non-depository financial lenders that you lending to them.

好的。接下來，你們談了很多關於私募股權的話題。在幻燈片 17 中，您展示了一些很棒的數字。顯然，第一和贊助商業務以及您的資本市場業務正在從中受益。所以我的問題是，這不是在資本催繳或認購額度上，但多年來，銀行要想在與贊助商的資本市場業務中獲勝，你必須利用你的資產負債表來贏得這項業務。你必須借錢給贊助商。那麼，您能否與我們分享您對非存款金融貸款機構的曝險（我猜是一份監管報告中的一項），即您向他們提供貸款的非存款金融貸款機構。

Can you share with us your exposure there, how you manage that risk because it seems like banking industry has been derisked, but maybe it's in the private credit side and the indirect exposure for the industry could run through that channel. Can you give us some color there, please ?

您能否與我們分享您在那裡的風險敞口，您如何管理該風險，因為銀行業似乎已經消除了風險，但也許是在私人信貸方面，該行業的間接風險可能會通過該渠道運行。你能給我們一些顏色嗎？

Hey Gered why don't I take that. So we bank we bank the private capital sector in several different ways. We obviously have capital call and subscription lines, which are based on LPs. We have financing lines to some of the private credit organizations, which are kind of structured as almost like asset-backed lending where we have diversified pools of loans underneath it, and we have advance rates and on and the like. So it's actually relatively safe, almost investment grade like lending, even if those complexes begin to take some losses on their underlying portfolios. And so we like those two businesses a lot are probably not going to grow them to much more across the entirety of the company because it is a large concentration already.

嘿，傑里德，我為什麼不接受這個。因此，我們以幾種不同的方式為私人資本部門提供銀行服務。顯然，我們有基於有限合夥人的認購和認購額度。我們向一些私人信貸組織提供融資額度，其結構幾乎類似於資產支持貸款，其中我們擁有多元化的貸款池，並且我們有預付利率等。因此，它實際上相對安全，幾乎像貸款一樣具有投資級別，即使這些綜合體的基礎投資組合開始遭受一些損失。因此，我們非常喜歡這兩項業務，可能不會在整個公司範圍內將它們發展得更多，因為它已經是一個很大的集中度。

But when you look at that those non-bank financial numbers, that includes insurance companies and a whole bunch of other exposures in there also. And then of course, we land the riskiest stuff we do is to the underlying our leverage buyouts and our strategy there for ever has been very much holds. It's an underwrite to distribute business. What is the average outstanding is like $12 million on any given deal. So very diversified across a large group of leveraged credit.

但是，當你查看那些非銀行金融數據時，其中還包括保險公司和一大堆其他風險敞口。當然，我們所做的風險最高的事情是我們槓桿收購的基礎，而我們的策略一直非常堅定。這是經銷業務的承銷。任何一筆交易的平均未償金額約為 1200 萬美元。因此，在一大群槓桿信貸中非常多元化。

The book is actually shrinking, given the lack of market activity over the last kind of year and a half or so. So we feel like we're very well diversified, and I've been doing this business, as you know, for a very long time and where you get really hurt us when you have big concentrations in leveraged loans. And we see that with some of our competition, but we're not going to go there and just because that's the way you run those businesses. So those are the really big parts.

鑑於過去一年半左右的市場活動缺乏，該書實際上正在萎縮。所以我們覺得我們非常多元化，正如你所知，我從事這項業務已經很長時間了，當你大量集中於槓桿貸款時，你真的會傷害我們。我們在一些競爭對手中看到了這一點，但我們不會去那裡，因為這就是你經營這些業務的方式。所以這些才是真正重要的部分。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matt O'Connor, Georgia Bank.

馬特·奧康納，喬治亞銀行。

Thanks and good morning. Can you guys talk about how you think deposits will reprice down, I guess the first kind of call it two or three Fed cuts versus a more sustained reduction?

謝謝，早安。你們能否談談你們認為存款將如何重新定價，我想第一種稱為美聯儲兩次或三次降息與更持續的降息？

Yes, sure. I'll take that. I mean, I think what we're likely to see under the first couple of cuts, we're modeling out approximately 20% to 30% down betas in this first couple of cuts the way the forwards, have it playing out overall thinking of the longer the longer those those cuts are in place, the more there's the opportunity to to see rollovers of CDs, et cetera, and to lean in and price down. So the fact that we have I think the forwards get down to around 4%, but yet by the end of '25 and may start to get into the 350 range in terms of our outlook. When you get out into '26 and beyond through that falls tightening cycle, we think that the full round trip could be could approach the down betas could approach where [up beta] were. [Up beta] is around 51%. I think the down beta could get up to that level, it will be over the full cycle, but it'll be 20 to 30 for the first couple.

是的，當然。我會接受的。我的意思是，我認為我們在前幾次削減中可能會看到什麼，我們正在模擬前幾次削減中大約20% 到30% 的貝塔值下降，就像前進的方式一樣，讓它發揮整體思維這些削減實施的時間越長，就越有機會看到 CD 等的展期，並有更多的機會進行調整和降低價格。因此，我認為遠期利率會下降到 4% 左右，但到 25 年底，就我們的前景而言，可能會開始進入 350 的範圍。當你進入 26 年及之後的下跌緊縮週期時，我們認為整個往返可能會接近下降貝塔值可能接近[上升貝塔]的水平。 [Up beta] 約 51%。我認為下貝塔可能會達到這個水平，這將在整個週期內進行，但對於第一對夫婦來說，它將是 20 到 30。

Okay. And then thoughts on on deposit growth pick up a bit for the industry, and you've got some specific initiatives, obviously. But do you see some pickup and kind of broader deposit trends as well with some Fed cuts?

好的。然後，該行業對存款成長的想法有所回升，顯然，您已經採取了一些具體舉措。但您是否看到一些回升和更廣泛的存款趨勢以及聯準會的一些降息？

Yes. I mean, I think broadly, we believe we're going to have deposit growth in the second half, contributing from all three of our businesses. Some So 2Q's a seasonally down quarter. We saw that and we're expecting that plus all of our initiatives that we have in place are going to contribute to deposit growth in the second half. We've got that one cut in September and our outlook that will be helpful.

是的。我的意思是，我認為從廣義上講，我們相信下半年存款將出現成長，這得益於我們所有三項業務的貢獻。因此，第二季是季節性下滑的季度。我們看到了這一點，我們預計，加上我們採取的所有舉措，將有助於下半年的存款成長。我們在 9 月進行了一次削減，我們的前景將會有所幫助。

I don't think that is absolutely necessary to have that cut in order to continue to have deposit growth. But certainly that would be helpful to get that deposit growth to stop given kind of the migration aspects and the mix shifts that the industry has been seeing. And then as you broaden that out, when we have overall deposit growth in average deposits are higher. That will be consistent with up with a very positive funding mix because wholesale funding can be can be lower in terms of funding the balance sheet, and that's a tailwind for NII and then NIM into the second half as well.

我認為，為了繼續保持存款成長，絕對沒有必要進行削減。但考慮到該行業已經看到的移民方面和結構變化，這肯定有助於停止存款成長。然後，當你擴大範圍時，當我們的整體存款成長時，平均存款會更高。這將與非常積極的融資組合一致，因為批發融資在為資產負債表提供資金方面可能會較低，這對 NII 以及下半年的 NIM 來說都是有利的。

Yes. I would just add some color there is that the uptick in private bank deposits in the quarter was $1.6 billion. And so you can see that we've really got a cadence and a rhythm in terms of kind of growing the book there in the private bank and bringing in the customer base. So we would expect to have again something that most other banks don't have to drive deposit growth and having that unique business opportunity. And then there's generally some seasonality that's favorable in the consumer business and the commercial business.

是的。我想補充一點的是，本季私人銀行存款增加了 16 億美元。所以你可以看到，我們在私人銀行增加帳簿和吸引客戶群方面確實有節奏和節奏。因此，我們期望再次擁有大多數其他銀行不需要的東西來推動存款成長並擁有獨特的商業機會。然後，通常存在一些對消費業務和商業業務有利的季節性。

So I think the outlook for deposit growth in the second half is pretty pretty so the one to one point I would add on the consumer side is that we've had a number of years in a row where we've outperformed on a relative basis on DDA and low-cost deposits. And with benchmarking that we see so far this year, we believe we're number one in the peer set in consumer for relative DDA performance.

因此，我認為下半年存款成長的前景相當不錯，因此我在消費者方面要一對一補充的是，我們已經連續多年在相對基礎上表現優於大盤DDA 和低成本存款。根據我們今年迄今為止看到的基準測試，我們相信我們在消費者的相對 DDA 性能方面在同業中排名第一。

And we see that continuing. So we think the trends have stabilized up. So much of our deposit strategy is grounded in the health of our DDA base, and we expect whatever the market throws us that we'll continue to outperform peers and doing that for a long time now. And certainly this year has been a real strength.

我們看到這種情況仍在繼續。所以我們認為趨勢已經穩定下來。我們的存款策略大部分都是基於 DDA 基礎的健康狀況，我們預計無論市場為我們帶來什麼，我們都將繼續跑贏同行，並且會長期這樣做。當然，今年是一個真正的優勢。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Okay. I think that's it for the queue. Thank you, everybody, for dialing in today. We certainly appreciate your interest and your support and have a great day.

好的。我想隊列就這樣了。謝謝大家今天撥電話。我們當然感謝您的關注和支持，並祝您有個愉快的一天。

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。