Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Citizens Financial Group First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Alan, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded. Now I'll turn the call over to Kristin Silberberg, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations. Kristin, you may begin.

大家早安，歡迎參加公民金融集團第一季財報電話會議。我叫艾倫，今天我將擔任你們的接線生。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，正在記錄此事件。現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係執行副總裁 Kristin Silberberg。克里斯汀，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Alan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, this morning, our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and CFO, John Woods, will provide an overview of our first quarter results. Brendan Coughlin, Head of Consumer Banking; and Don McCree, Head of Commercial Banking, are also here to provide additional color.

謝謝你，艾倫。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。首先，今天上午，我們的董事長兼執行長 Bruce Van Saun；財務長約翰伍茲 (John Woods) 將概述我們第一季的業績。 Brendan Coughlin，消費者銀行業務主管；商業銀行業務主管唐·麥克雷 (Don McCree) 也在這裡提供了更多資訊。

We will be referencing our first quarter earnings presentation located on our Investor Relations website. After the presentation, we will be happy to take questions. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. These are outlined for your review on Page 2 of the presentation. We also reference non-GAAP financial measures, so it's important to review our GAAP results on Page 3 of the presentation and the reconciliations in the appendix.

我們將參考投資者關係網站上的第一季財報。演示結束後，我們將很樂意回答問題。我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期有重大差異。這些內容在簡報的第 2 頁上進行了概述，供您查看。我們也參考了非 GAAP 財務指標，因此請務必查看簡報第 3 頁上的 GAAP 結果以及附錄中的調整表。

With that, I will hand over to you, Bruce.

這樣，我就把任務交給你了，布魯斯。

Thank you, Kristin. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call today. We were pleased to start the year with a solid quarter. We continue to play strong defense through an uncertain environment with a CET1 ratio of 10.6%, our LDR at 81%, our allowance for loan loss ratio of [1.61%] and general office reserves now at 10.6%. On the P&L, we are still seeing a modest decline in NII though our NIM was stable at 2.91%. Fees picked up by 3% sequential quarter, led by capital markets and card, and expenses were flat.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我們很高興以穩定的季度開始了新的一年。我們繼續在不確定的環境中發揮強有力的防禦作用，CET1比率為10.6%，LDR為81%，貸款損失準備率為[1.61%]，綜合辦公室準備率為10.6%。在損益表上，儘管我們的淨利差穩定在 2.91%，但我們仍然看到淨利息收入略有下降。在資本市場和信用卡的帶動下，費用比上一季增加了 3%，但支出持平。

Our credit trends are in line with expectations. We repurchased $300 million of shares during the quarter as we free up capital from our noncore rundown. Our guide for Q2 and full year remain consistent with our expectations at the outset of the year. Our strategic initiatives are making good progress. The Private Bank is off to a good start, reaching $2.4 billion in deposits at quarter end. We expect momentum to accelerate further over the course of the year. We're also focused on building out private wealth management through further investment in Clarfeld plus several imminent team lift-outs.

我們的信貸趨勢符合預期。我們在本季回購了 3 億美元的股票，因為我們從非核心資產中釋放了資本。我們對第二季和全年的指導與我們年初的預期保持一致。我們的策略性舉措正在取得良好進展。私人銀行開局良好，季末存款達 24 億美元。我們預計這一勢頭將在今年進一步加速。我們也致力於透過對 Clarfeld 的進一步投資以及幾項即將進行的團隊裁員來建立私人財富管理業務。

Our New York City Metro initiative continues to go well with the fastest growth of any of our regions and really strong Net Promoter Scores. Our focus in the commercial bank of serving the middle market private capital and key growth verticals has put us in great position to benefit from a pickup in deal activity, which we expect to build further over the course of the year. And our TOP 9 program is being executed well, allowing us to self-fund our growth investments while keeping overall expense growth rate muted.

我們的紐約市地鐵計劃繼續進展順利，是我們所有地區中成長最快的，淨推薦值非常高。我們在商業銀行的重點是為中間市場私人資本和關鍵成長垂直領域提供服務，這使我們能夠從交易活動的增加中受益，我們預計交易活動將在今年進一步加強。我們的 TOP 9 計畫執行得很好，使我們能夠自行資助我們的成長投資，同時保持整體費用成長率較低。

While there are still many uncertainties in the external environment, we feel we are in a good position to navigate the challenges that may arise, and we maintain a positive outlook for Citizens over the balance of the year as well as the medium term. Over the past decade, we have undertaken a major transformation of Citizens. Our Consumer and Commercial Banking segments are positioned for success, and we are now looking to build the premier bank owned Private Bank and wealth franchise.

儘管外部環境仍然存在許多不確定性，但我們認為我們處於有利地位，可以應對可能出現的挑戰，並且我們對公民今年剩餘時間和中期的前景保持樂觀。在過去的十年裡，我們對公民進行了重大轉變。我們的消費者和商業銀行業務部門已做好了成功的準備，我們現在正在尋求建立一流的銀行擁有的私人銀行和財富特許經營權。

Our balance sheet has been repositioned with an exceptionally strong capital liquidity and funding profile, and we are deploying our loan capital more selectively to achieve better risk-adjusted returns. Our expense base has been tightly managed with AI offering the potential for further breakthroughs. Lots accomplished with more to do, clearly, exciting times for Citizens. With that, let me turn it over to John.

我們的資產負債表已重新定位，具有異常強勁的資本流動性和融資狀況，我們正在更有選擇性地部署貸款資本，以實現更好的風險調整回報。我們的費用基礎得到了人工智慧的嚴格管理，提供了進一步突破的潛力。已經取得了很多成就，還有更多事情要做，顯然，這對公民來說是激動人心的時刻。那麼，讓我把它交給約翰。

Thanks, Bruce, and good morning, everyone. As Bruce mentioned, the year is off to a good start. First quarter results were solid against the backdrop of a more constructive macro environment, which supported an improvement in capital markets, stability in our margin and credit performance that continues to play out largely as expected. We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet with capital levels near the top of our peer group, excellent liquidity and a healthy credit reserve position.

謝謝布魯斯，大家早安。正如布魯斯所說，今年有一個好的開始。在更具建設性的宏觀環境的背景下，第一季業績表現穩健，這支持了資本市場的改善、利潤率的穩定以及信貸表現繼續基本符合預期。我們持續保持強勁的資產負債表，資本水準接近同業最高水平，流動性良好，信貸儲備狀況良好。

Importantly, this positions us to execute well against our multiyear strategic initiatives, including the build-out of our Private Bank. Let me start with some highlights of our first quarter financial results, referencing Slides 3 to 6 before I discuss the details. We generated underlying net income of $395 million for the first quarter and EPS of $0.79. This includes a negative $0.03 impact from the Private Bank, which is a significant improvement from the $0.11 impact last quarter as we start to see revenues pick up and we progress to our expected breakeven in 2H '24.

重要的是，這使我們能夠很好地執行我們的多年戰略計劃，包括擴大我們的私人銀行。讓我先介紹一下我們第一季財務表現的一些亮點，在討論細節之前參考投影片 3 至 6。我們第一季的基本淨利潤為 3.95 億美元，每股收益為 0.79 美元。這包括私人銀行帶來的 0.03 美元的負面影響，與上季度 0.11 美元的影響相比有了顯著改善，因為我們開始看到收入回升，並且我們在 2024 年下半年實現了預期的盈虧平衡。

It also moves the impact of the noncore portfolio, which contributed a $0.13 negative impact. While our noncore portfolio is currently a sizable drag to results, it is steadily running off, creating a tailwind for performance going forward. Our notable items this quarter were $0.14, which primarily consists of an adjustment to the FDIC special assessment and top and other efficiency-related expenses. Excluding these notable items, our underlying ROTCE for the quarter was 10.6%.

它還移動了非核心投資組合的影響，產生了 0.13 美元的負面影響。雖然我們的非核心投資組合目前對業績造成相當大的拖累，但它正在穩步成長，為未來的業績創造了動力。本季我們值得注意的項目為 0.14 美元，主要包括 FDIC 特別評估以及最高費用和其他效率相關費用的調整。排除這些值得注意的項目，我們本季的基本 ROTCE 為 10.6%。

Playing prudent defense remains at the top of our priority list, and we ended the quarter with a very strong balance sheet position. with CET1 at 10.6% or 8.9% adjusted for the AOCI opt-out removal. We also continue to make meaningful improvements to our funding and liquidity profile in the first quarter. Our pro forma LCR strengthened to 120%, which is well in excess of the large bank Category 1 requirement of 100% and our period-end LDR improved to 81% from 82% in the prior quarter.

謹慎防守仍然是我們的首要任務，本季末我們的資產負債表狀況非常強勁。根據 AOCI 選擇退出調整，CET1 為 10.6% 或 8.9%。我們也在第一季繼續對我們的資金和流動性狀況進行有意義的改進。我們的準備 LCR 升至 120%，遠超大型銀行 1 類要求的 100%，期末 LDR 從上一季的 82% 提高至 81%。

On the funding front, we reduced our period-end FHLB borrowings by about $1.8 billion linked quarter to a modest $2 billion. We also increased our structural funding base with a very successful $1.25 billion senior issuance and another $1.5 billion auto collateralized issuance during the quarter. And we have another $1 billion of auto backed issuance expected to settle this week. This is our fourth issuance, and it was executed at our tightest credit spreads to date.

在融資方面，我們將期末 FHLB 季度借款減少了約 18 億美元，降至 20 億美元。我們還透過在本季成功發行 12.5 億美元的優先發行和另外 15 億美元的汽車抵押發行來擴大我們的結構性融資基礎。我們還有另外 10 億美元的汽車支援發行預計將於本週結算。這是我們的第四次發行，並且是在我們迄今為止最嚴格的信用利差下執行的。

In addition, we expect to be a more programmatic issuer of senior and secured debt going forward. Credit trends have been performing in line with our expectations, with NCOs coming in at 50 basis points for the first quarter. Our ACL coverage ratio of 1.61% is up 2 basis points from year-end. This includes a 10.6% coverage for general office, up slightly from 10.2% in the prior quarter. We are well positioned for the medium term with expected tailwinds to NIM that support a range of 3.25% to 3.4%.

此外，我們預計未來將成為優先和擔保債務的更具程序性的發行人。信貸趨勢的表現符合我們的預期，第一季 NCO 成長了 50 個基點。 ACL 覆蓋率為 1.61%，較年底上升 2 個基點。其中包括 10.6% 的普通辦公室覆蓋率，略高於上一季的 10.2%。我們在中期處於有利位置，預計淨利差將受到 3.25% 至 3.4% 的支撐。

Regarding strategic initiatives, the Private Bank is doing very well. We continue to make inroads in the New York Metro and our latest top program is progressing nicely. In addition, we are poised to benefit from an improving capital markets environment with our investments in the business and synergies from our acquisitions positioning us to capitalize as activity levels continue to pick up.

在策略性舉措方面，私人銀行做得非常好。我們繼續在紐約地鐵取得進展，我們最新的頂級項目進展順利。此外，我們將受益於不斷改善的資本市場環境，我們對業務的投資以及收購帶來的協同效應使我們能夠隨著活動水準的持續回升而資本化。

Next, I'll talk through the first quarter results in more detail, starting with net interest income on Slide 7. As expected, NII is down 3% linked quarter, reflecting a stable margin on a 2% decrease in average interest-earning assets given lower loan balances and day-count. As you can see from the NIM walk at the bottom of the slide, our margin was flat at 2.91% as the combined benefit of higher asset yields and noncore runoff and day count were offset by higher funding costs and the impact of swaps.

接下來，我將更詳細地討論第一季的業績，從投影片7 上的淨利息收入開始。利潤率考慮到較低的貸款餘額和天數。正如您從幻燈片底部的NIM 曲線中看到的那樣，我們的利潤率持平於2.91%，因為較高的資產收益率、非核心徑流和天數的綜合效益被較高的融資成本和掉期的影響所抵消。

As expected, our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta remains in the low 50s at 52%. And although we continue to see deposit migration, the rate of migration is slowing. Overall, our deposit franchise has performed well with our beta generally impact the peers.

正如預期的那樣，我們的累積計息存款貝塔值仍保持在 50 多歲的低水平，即 52%。儘管我們繼續看到存款遷移，但遷移速度正在放緩。整體而言，我們的存款業務表現良好，我們的測試版通常會影響同業。

Moving to Slide 8. Our Fees were up 3% linked quarter given a notable improvement in capital markets and good card results. The improvement in capital markets reflects a nice pickup in M&A activity and strong bond underwriting results. Our Capital Markets business consistently holds the top 3 middle market sponsor bookrunner position and this quarter, we achieved the #1 spot. Our deal pipelines remain strong, and we continue to see positive early momentum in capital markets this quarter with strong refinancing activity continuing in the bond market.

轉向幻燈片 8。資本市場的改善反映出併購活動的良好回升和債券承銷績效的強勁。我們的資本市場業務始終保持著中間市場保薦人簿記管理人的前三名位置，本季度，我們獲得了第一名的位置。我們的交易管道依然強勁，我們繼續看到本季資本市場的積極早期勢頭，債券市場繼續強勁的再融資活動。

In Card, we had a nice increase, primarily driven by the benefit of a strategic conversion of our debit and credit cards to Mastercard. Our client hedging business was down a bit this quarter with lower activity in commodities and FX. The decline in mortgage banking fees was driven by a lower benefit from the MSR valuation net of hedging and a modest decline in servicing P&L, partially offset by higher production fees as margin improved while lot volumes were stable.

在卡片方面，我們取得了不錯的成長，這主要是由於我們的金融卡和信用卡策略轉換為萬事達卡所帶來的好處。由於大宗商品和外匯活動減少，本季我們的客戶對沖業務略有下降。抵押貸款銀行費用的下降是由於扣除對沖後的 MSR 估值收益較低以及服務損益小幅下降所致，但由於利潤率提高而批量穩定，生產費用上升部分抵消了這一影響。

On Slide 9, we did a nice job managing our underlying expenses, which were stable. We will continue to execute on our TOP program, which gives us the capacity to self-fund our growth initiatives. On Slide 10, period end and average loans are down 2% linked quarter. This was driven by noncore portfolio runoff and a decline in commercial loans, given paydowns and generally lower client loan demand, our highly selective approach to lending in this environment, along with exits of lower returning credit-only relationships.

在幻燈片 9 中，我們很好地管理了我們的基本支出，這些支出很穩定。我們將繼續執行我們的 TOP 計劃，這使我們有能力為我們的成長計劃自籌資金。在投影片 10 中，期末貸款和平均貸款較上季下降 2%。這是由於非核心投資組合流失和商業貸款下降所致，考慮到還款和客戶貸款需求普遍較低，我們在這種環境下高度選擇性的貸款方式，以及回報率較低的純信貸關係的退出。

Commercial loan utilization continued to decline this quarter as clients remain cautious and M&A activity was limited in the face of an uncertain market environment.

本季商業貸款利用率持續下降，原因是客戶保持謹慎態度，且面對不確定的市場環境，併購活動有限。

Next, on Slides 11 and 12, we continue to do well in deposits. Year-on-year period-end deposits were up $4.2 billion driven by growth in retail and the Private Bank. Period end deposits were down slightly linked quarter given expected seasonal impacts in commercial largely offset by growth in the Private Bank and retail branch deposits. Our interest-bearing deposit costs were well controlled, up 6 basis points, which translates to a 52% cumulative beta.

接下來，在投影片 11 和 12 中，我們在存款方面繼續表現良好。受零售和私人銀行成長的推動，期末存款年增 42 億美元。鑑於預期的商業季節性影響在很大程度上被私人銀行和零售分行存款的成長所抵消，期末存款與季度相比略有下降。我們的計息存款成本得到了很好的控制，上升了6個基點，累積貝塔率為52%。

Our deposit franchise is highly diversified across product mix and channels. About 68% of our deposits are granular, stable consumer deposits and approximately 70% of our overall deposits are insured or secured. This attractive deposit base has allowed us to efficiently and cost effectively manage our deposits in the higher rate environment. With the Fed holding steady, we saw the migration of deposits to higher cost categories continue to moderate. And with the contribution of attractive deposits from the Private Bank, noninterest-bearing deposits are holding steady at about 21% of total deposits.

我們的存款業務在產品組合和通路方面高度多元化。我們約 68% 的存款是細粒度、穩定的消費者存款，約 70% 的總存款受到保險或擔保。這種有吸引力的存款基礎使我們能夠在較高利率的環境下高效且具成本效益地管理我們的存款。隨著聯準會保持穩定，我們看到存款向較高成本類別的遷移繼續放緩。而在私人銀行有吸引力的存款貢獻下，無利息存款佔存款總額的比例穩定在21%左右。

Moving on to Credit on Slide 13. Net charge-offs were 50 basis points, up 4 basis points linked quarter. This includes increased commercial charge-offs related to pre general office, which were in line with our expectations. In retail, we saw a modest seasonal improvement. Nonaccrual loans increased 8% linked quarter driven by increase in General Office. The continued runoff of the Auto portfolio drove a modest decline in retail, while other retail categories were stable.

接下來是投影片 13 的信貸。這包括與一般辦公室相關的商業沖銷增加，這符合我們的預期。在零售業，我們看到了季節性的適度改善。由於綜合辦公業務的增加，非應計貸款較上季成長 8%。汽車投資組合的持續流失導致零售業小幅下滑，而其他零售類別則保持穩定。

Turning to the allowance for credit losses on Slide 14. Our overall coverage ratio stands at 1.61%, which is a 2 basis point increase from the fourth quarter, reflecting broadly stable reserves with lower loan balances given noncore runoff and commercial balance sheet optimization. The reserve for the $3.4 billion general office portfolio represents 10.6% coverage, up slightly from 10.2% in the fourth quarter.

轉向投影片14 上的信貸損失準備金。餘額較低。 34 億美元的普通辦公室投資組合的準備金覆蓋率為 10.6%，略高於第四季的 10.2%。

On the bottom left side of the page, you can see some of the key assumptions driving the general office reserve coverage level. We feel these assumptions represent a severe scenario that is much worse than we've seen in historical downturns, so we feel the current coverage is very strong.

在頁面的左下角，您可以看到一些推動一般辦公室準備金覆蓋水平的關鍵假設。我們認為這些假設代表了一種嚴重的情況，比我們在歷史衰退中看到的情況要糟糕得多，因此我們認為目前的覆蓋範圍非常強大。

Moving to Slide 15. We have maintained excellent balance sheet strength. Our CET1 ratio is a strong 10.6% and if you were to adjust for the AOCI opt-out removal under the current regulatory proposal, our CET1 ratio would be 8.9%. Both our CET1 and TCE ratios have consistently been among the top of our peers, and you can see on Slide 16, where we stand currently relative to peers in the fourth quarter.

前往投影片 15。我們的 CET1 比率高達 10.6%，如果根據當前監管提案對 AOCI 選擇退出進行調整，我們的 CET1 比率將為 8.9%。我們的 CET1 和 TCE 比率一直在同行中名列前茅，您可以在幻燈片 16 中看到，我們目前相對於第四季度同行的情況。

Given our strong capital position, we resumed common share repurchases and including dividends, we returned a total of $497 million to shareholders in the first quarter. On the next few pages, I'll update you on a few of our key initiatives we have underway across the bank, including our Private Bank.

鑑於我們強大的資本狀況，我們恢復了普通股回購（包括股息），第一季我們向股東總共返還了 4.97 億美元。在接下來的幾頁中，我將向您介紹我們在整個銀行（包括我們的私人銀行）正在進行的一些關鍵舉措的最新情況。

First, on Slide 17, we have a strong transformed consumer bank with a robust and capable deposit franchise, a diverse lending business where we are prioritizing relationship-based lending and a meaningful revenue opportunity as we scale our wealth business. Importantly, we continue to make great progress taking deposit share with retail deposits up 20% year-on-year as we continue building our customer base in New York Metro.

首先，在幻燈片17 上，我們擁有一家轉型後實力強勁的消費銀行，擁有強大而有能力的存款專營權、多元化的貸款業務（我們優先考慮基於關係的貸款）以及在擴大財富業務時提供有意義的收入機會。重要的是，隨著我們繼續在紐約地鐵建立客戶群，我們繼續取得巨大進展，零售存款的存款份額年增 20%。

Slide 18, let me update you on our progress in building a premier Private Bank, taking the opportunity to fill the void left in the wake of the bank failures last year. Our build-out is going very well and gaining momentum. We are growing our client base and now have about $2.4 billion of attractive deposits with roughly 30% noninterest-bearing. Also, we are now at just over $1 billion of loans and $0.5 billion of investments and continuing to grow. We just opened our newest private banking office in Palm Beach, Florida, and we are opportunistically adding talent to bolster our banking and wealth capabilities with our Clarfeld Wealth Management business as the centerpiece of that effort.

第 18 張投影片，讓我向您介紹我們在建立一流私人銀行方面取得的最新進展，並藉此機會填補去年銀行倒閉後留下的空白。我們的擴建進展順利，勢頭強勁。我們正在擴大客戶群，目前擁有約 24 億美元的有吸引力的存款，其中約 30% 為無息存款。此外，我們現在的貸款和投資分別超過 10 億美元和 5 億美元，而且還在持續成長。我們剛剛在佛羅裡達州棕櫚灘開設了最新的私人銀行辦事處，並且我們正在機會主義地增加人才，以增強我們的銀行和財富能力，並將我們的克拉菲爾德財富管理業務作為這項努力的核心。

Next, on Slide 19, we have built a formidable full-service commercial bank, which consistently punches above its weight. Our multiyear investments in talent, capabilities and industry expertise put us in an enviable position to provide life cycle services to middle market, mid-corporate and sponsor clients in high-growth sectors of the U.S. economy. In particular, we are uniquely positioned to serve the private capital ecosystem. As evidenced by our consistent standing at the top of the sponsored lead tables, we are well positioned to take advantage of a more constructive capital markets environment and we are excited to start seeing the synergies from our acquisitions coming through in our results this quarter.

接下來，在投影片 19 上，我們建立了一家強大的全方位服務商業銀行，始終表現出色。我們對人才、能力和行業專業知識的多年投資使我們處於令人羨慕的地位，可以為美國經濟高成長產業的中型市場、中型企業和贊助客戶提供生命週期服務。特別是，我們在服務私人資本生態系統方面具有獨特的優勢。正如我們在贊助領先表中始終名列前茅所證明的那樣，我們處於有利地位，可以利用更具建設性的資本市場環境，並且我們很高興開始在本季度的業績中看到收購帶來的協同效應。

Moving to Slide 20, we provide the guidance for the second quarter. We expect NII to decrease about 2%. Noninterest income should be up approximately 3% to 4%. We expect noninterest expense to be stable to down slightly. Net charge-offs are expected to be about 50 basis points and the ACL should continue to benefit from the noncore runoff. Our CET1 is expected to come in at about 10.5% with approximately $200 million of share repurchases currently planned. We are broadly reaffirming our full year 2024 guide. We expect NII to land within the range of down 6% to 9%, consistent with our January guidance, with margin coming in a little better than expected, offsetting the impact of lower loan demand.

轉向幻燈片 20，我們提供第二季的指導。我們預計NII 將下降2%左右。非利息收入應成長約 3% 至 4%。我們預期非利息支出將穩定至小幅下降。淨沖銷預計約為 50 個基點，ACL 應繼續受益於非核心徑流。我們的 CET1 預計約為 10.5%，目前計劃回購約 2 億美元的股票。我們廣泛重申 2024 年全年指南。我們預期NII將下降6%至9%的範圍內，這與我們1月份的指導一致，利潤率略好於預期，抵消了貸款需求下降的影響。

The other components of PPNR are also tracking to our January guidance. In addition, NCOs are trending in line with our expectations of approximately 50 basis points for the year. Our target CET1 ratio for 2024 is approximately 10.5%, and the level of share repurchases will be dependent on our view of the external environment and loan growth. Given the changing rate outlook, I wanted to update you on how the swaps and our noncore portfolio are expected to impact NII and NIM as we look out further in 2024 and beyond.

PPNR 的其他組成部分也遵循我們 1 月的指導。此外，NCO 的趨勢符合我們今年約 50 個基點的預期。我們2024年的目標CET1比率約為10.5%，股票回購水準將取決於我們對外部環境和貸款成長的看法。鑑於不斷變化的利率前景，我想向您介紹互換和我們的非核心投資組合預計將如何影響 NII 和 NIM，因為我們對 2024 年及以後的情況進行了進一步展望。

We've included Slide 25 in the appendix, which shows the expected swaps and noncore impact through 2027. By 4Q 2024, we expect higher swap expense to be partly offset by the NII benefit from the noncore rundown. Looking out further, we expect a significant NII tailwind and NIM benefit from the impact of noncore and swaps over the medium term given runoff and lower rates. This will be partially offset by the impact of the asset-sensitive core balance sheet, resulting in a medium-term NIM range of 3.25% to 3.4%.

我們在附錄中加入了投影片25，其中顯示了到2027 年的預期掉期和非核心影響。部分抵消。進一步展望，鑑於徑流和較低的利率，我們預期中期內NII和NIM將受益於非核心和掉期的影響。這將被資產敏感型核心資產負債表的影響部分抵消，導致中期淨利差範圍為 3.25% 至 3.4%。

To wrap up, we delivered a solid quarter, featuring stable NIM, strong fee performance led by capital markets and cards, tight expense management and in-line credit performance. We have a series of unique initiatives that are progressing well. Our consumer bank has been transformed. Our commercial bank is exceptionally well positioned and we aim to build the premier bank-owned Private Bank and wealth franchise. We enjoy a strong capital liquidity and funding profile that allows us to support our customers while continuing to invest in our strategic initiatives.

總而言之，我們實現了穩健的季度業績，包括穩定的淨利差、資本市場和銀行卡主導的強勁費用表現、嚴格的費用管理以及符合信用表現的表現。我們有一系列獨特的舉措，進展順利。我們的消費者銀行已經轉型。我們的商業銀行處於非常有利的地位，我們的目標是建立一流的銀行擁有的私人銀行和財富特許經營權。我們擁有強大的資本流動性和資金狀況，這使我們能夠在繼續投資於我們的策略舉措的同時為客戶提供支援。

Given several tailwinds, combined with continued strong execution, we are confident in our ability to hit our medium-term 16% to 18% return target. With that, I'll hand it back over to Bruce.

鑑於多項有利因素，再加上持續強勁的執行力，我們對實現 16% 至 18% 中期回報率目標的能力充滿信心。這樣，我就把它交還給布魯斯。

Okay. Thank you, John. And Alan, let's open it up for Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，約翰。艾倫，讓我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自高盛的瑞安·納什（Ryan Nash）。

Maybe to start off with some of the guidance. You broadly reiterated -- can you maybe just flesh out how some of the expectations have changed, particularly around NII, John? I think you noted you still expect to be in the range. But what are the main drivers to get you there? And what would it take to be better than the low end and just as a follow-up on the margin, you held it flat and it sounds like it could be a little bit better. How have the expectations change relative to the $280 million to $285 million and $285 million you were expecting at the end of the year.

也許可以從一些指導開始。您廣泛地重申了——約翰，您能否具體說明一些期望發生了怎樣的變化，特別是關於 NII 的變化？我想你已經注意到你仍然希望在這個範圍內。但實現這目標的主要驅動力是什麼？怎麼樣才能比低端更好，就像邊緣的後續行動一樣，你保持它平坦，聽起來可能會好一點。相對於您年底預期的 2.8 億美元、2.85 億美元和 2.85 億美元，預期有何變化？

Yes, sure. I'll go and talk through that. I'd say, as you may have heard in some of the opening remarks, we do expect that net interest margin trends have been quite good. And so we do expect net interest margin to come in a little better, maybe at the high end of that range rather than where we were at the beginning of the year. And a lot of the drivers of that net interest margin can be pinned on the investments we've made in the deposit franchise over the years that are really starting to come to fruition. And when you look at it, deposit levels are better in the first quarter than we expected and interest-bearing deposit costs are a little bit better.

是的，當然。我去談談這件事。我想說，正如您在一些開場白中所聽到的那樣，我們確實預計淨利差趨勢相當不錯。因此，我們確實預期淨利差會好一些，可能會達到該範圍的高端，而不是年初的水平。淨利差的許多驅動因素可以歸因於我們多年來在存款業務方面所做的投資，這些投資確實開始取得成果。你看，第一季的存款水準比我們預期的要好，帶息存款成本也好一點。

So just -- and funding overall, when you look at our borrowing mix has improved significantly. So that's underpinning a lot of the net interest margin. And when you combine that with the other side of the balance sheet, where you see the front book back book dynamic playing out. It's very powerful. And so we're feeling better about NIM trajectory. And I think that's what you're seeing with respect to our confidence in hitting that net interest income range, given the confidence around net interest margin.

所以，當你看看我們的借貸組合時，整體資金已經顯著改善。因此，這在很大程度上支撐了淨利差。當你將其與資產負債表的另一面結合時，你會看到正面帳簿背面的動態正在發揮作用。它非常強大。因此，我們對 NIM 的發展軌跡感覺更好了。我認為，考慮到對淨利差的信心，這就是您所看到的我們對達到淨利息收入範圍的信心。

As you get towards the end of the year, as I mentioned, I think, previously, we said our guide would be around $280 million to $285 million in that range, I'd say we're probably going to come in at the upper end of that range now when we look out and maybe a tad above, we'll see as it plays out. And then we'll see the loan just given where loan demand has started off the year, maybe average loans maybe towards the lower end of that original range. But those offset a couple of basis points of NIM equals about a percentage point on loans. So that math just works out to be right down the middle of the fairway in terms of our guide.

正如我所提到的，當你接近年底時，我認為之前我們說過我們的指南將在該範圍內的 2.8 億美元至 2.85 億美元左右，我想說我們可能會處於較高水平現在，當我們向外看時，也許會稍微高於該範圍，我們會看到它的結果。然後我們會看到剛發放的貸款是今年貸款需求開始的地方，也許平均貸款可能接近原始範圍的下限。但這些抵消了淨利差的幾個基點，相當於貸款的一個百分點。因此，根據我們的指南，數學結果正好位於球道中間。

What could cause it to come in a little better. Continued execution of our strategic initiatives if we see our execution kind of accelerating across the Private Bank, and our other key initiatives on the deposit side. And let's see how the second half commercial rebound plays out. We are expecting working capital starting to pick up in the second half. We're expecting utilization levels to pick up. We're expecting activity in general, even in the M&A front and M&A finance to be part of the story in the second half. And so if that starts a little earlier or it comes in a little stronger, you could see us coming in maybe towards the lower end of that original NII guide.

什麼可以讓它變得更好一點。如果我們看到整個私人銀行的執行速度有所加快，我們將繼續執行我們的策略舉措，以及我們在存款方面的其他關鍵舉措。讓我們看看下半年商業反彈的表現如何。我們預計營運資金將在下半年開始回升。我們預計利用率水準將會上升。我們預計下半年會出現整體活動，甚至是併購領域和併購融資活動。因此，如果開始得更早一點或更強大一點，您可能會看到我們可能會接近原始 NII 指南的低端。

Yes, I would just add 1 thing, Brian, it's Bruce. The fact that the loan demand is a little light is, I think, okay, given there's a kind of loop to what we're doing on the deposit side. So we're not going to chase loan growth. And if, therefore, there's a little shrinkage in the balance sheet, we can run off our higher cost source of either FHLB funding or broker deposit funding. So we're taking full advantage of that, which is helping bolster the NIM.

是的，我只想添加一件事，布萊恩，是布魯斯。我認為，考慮到我們在存款方面所做的事情存在某種循環，貸款需求有點少這一事實是可以的。因此，我們不會追逐貸款成長。因此，如果資產負債表略有收縮，我們就可以擺脫 FHLB 資金或經紀人存款資金等成本較高的來源。因此，我們正在充分利用這一點，這有助於增強 NIM。

The other thing is with less loan growth, you end up freeing more capital. And so that gives us the wherewithal to step up and continue to repurchase stock. And I think our stock is great value here. So we're all in on that.

另一件事是，隨著貸款成長的減少，你最終會釋放出更多的資本。因此，這使我們有足夠的資金繼續回購股票。我認為我們的庫存在這裡很有價值。所以我們都全力以赴。

Got it. And just maybe as a follow-up, just -- any color in terms of what you're seeing on the credit side, which seems to be tracking in line with your expectations? And maybe specific to office where we saw a jump in the losses this quarter relative to the past few. Maybe just some color on what's driving that? Was that increased severity? Are you front-loading some losses? And when inevitably do you think we could see the allowance in that portfolio peak.

知道了。也許作為後續行動，就您在信貸方面看到的任何顏色而言，這似乎符合您的預期？也許具體到辦公室，我們看到本季的虧損相對於過去幾季有所增加。也許只是一些推動其發展的顏色？這是否增加了嚴重性？您是否預先承受了一些損失？您認為我們何時不可避免地會看到該投資組合高峰的準備金。

Let me start and then flip to Don. But I'd say there's no real surprises here, Ryan. So we can basically see all the office maturities. We've got kind of bespoke careful handling on all of the significant exposures that we have, and we've been working with the borrowers just to make sure that we can have a win-win situation. So we can come through getting the best return on our loans and borrowers can stay with their properties through a tough environment.

讓我開始，然後轉向唐。但我想說，這裡並沒有什麼真正的驚喜，瑞安。所以我們基本上可以看到所有的辦公室到期情況。我們對我們擁有的所有重大風險進行了客製化的謹慎處理，並且我們一直在與借款人合作，以確保我們能夠實現雙贏。因此，我們可以獲得最好的貸款回報，借款人也可以在艱難的環境中保留自己的房產。

And I think that's all going well. So if you have one quarter where the charge-offs tick up $20 million or the next quarter, they go down $15 million, you're going to kind of see some modest variation around that line, but basically to use a colloquialism, the pig is going to the python. And it's going to take a few more quarters for that to fully work its way through. But we're not seeing any surprises, which is the good thing about this. And so Don, with that, maybe you could pick up.

我認為一切進展順利。因此，如果某個季度的沖銷額增加了2000 萬美元，或者下一季度的沖銷額減少了1500 萬美元，那麼您會看到圍繞該線的一些適度變化，但基本上用通俗的話來說，就是豬正在走向蟒蛇。還需要幾個季度才能完全實現這一目標。但我們沒有看到任何意外，這是好事。所以唐，也許你可以接聽。

No, I think that's exactly right. We've taken our General office from about $4.2 billion to $3.4 billion. So it's actually coming down nicely, and the charge-offs have actually been modest. The -- most of the charge-offs are where we're selling out of properties and doing A/B loan structures and basically deciding to move on.

不，我認為這是完全正確的。我們已將總辦公室費用從約 42 億美元增加到 34 億美元。所以它實際上下降得很好，而且沖銷實際上也很溫和。大多數沖銷是我們出售房產並進行 A/B 貸款結構，然後基本上決定繼續前進。

We've had quite a few paydowns also. So it's not all doom and gloom. But I'd go back to what Bruce said, it's name by name, property by property. We've got our workout teams fully involved. It's kind of playing out exactly as we expected it to be. If I took myself back 1.5 years ago and looked at the office portfolio, there was a lot of uncertainty. I think there's a lot more uncertainty now. So remember, I've got a huge amount of absorption capacity just in my P&L for any losses that are materializing, and our reserve levels for the portfolio are well above where the severity of losses to date have been. So we feel we feel like we're going to work through this, as we said, over the next few quarters and begin to peak at the loss levels.

我們也有不少還款。所以，這並不全是厄運和悲觀。但我會回到布魯斯所說的，它是一個名字一個名字，一個財產一個財產。我們的訓練團隊充分參與其中。事情的發展完全符合我們的預期。如果我回到 1.5 年前，看看辦公室的投資組合，我會發現有很多不確定性。我認為現在有更多的不確定性。所以請記住，我的損益表中有大量的吸收能力，可以應對任何正在發生的損失，而且我們的投資組合準備金水準遠高於迄今為止損失的嚴重程度。因此，正如我們所說，我們認為我們將在接下來的幾個季度解決這個問題，並開始達到損失水平的頂峰。

Yes. And I just -- maybe, John, you can add to this, but in terms of where do we go from here -- you can see that the coverage ratio on office remains high, and it's gone from 10.2% reserves to 10.6%, but that rate of increase is slowing and so we've been taking the full charge off through the P&L and holding the reserve at high levels. At some point, we'll be able to start drawing down on that reserve.

是的。我只是——也許，約翰，你可以補充這一點，但就我們下一步該何去何從——你可以看到辦公室的覆蓋率仍然很高，並且從 10.2% 的準備金增加到 10.6%，但增長率正在放緩，因此我們一直在透過損益表全額扣除費用，並將準備金保持在高水準。在某個時候，我們將能夠開始動用該儲備金。

I don't want to make the call on that. But just take note that, that build is starting to slow. And so I don't know if it's maybe later this year or beginning of next year. But we will eventually get to a point where we can start drawing down on those reserves, which will be good for P&L.

我不想為此打電話。但請注意，該構建速度開始放緩。所以我不知道是在今年晚些時候還是明年初。但我們最終會達到可以開始動用這些準備金的程度，這對損益表來說是有利的。

Yes, I agree with all that, I'd just add a point or two. So what's built into the 10.6% you'll see it in some of our slide materials is an expectation of a 71% decline in property values. And that's what drives this 10.6% reserve for remaining losses.

是的，我同意所有這些，我只想補充一兩點。因此，您會在我們的一些幻燈片資料中看到 10.6% 的內容，其中包含對房地產價值下降 71% 的預期。這就是為剩餘損失準備 10.6% 的原因。

Which is more severe than anything we've seen historically, including the great financial recession by a wide margin.

這比我們歷史上見過的任何事情都要嚴重，包括大幅的金融衰退。

Exactly. And I think we should also mention that just given what we put behind us, implies another 6% of losses that we put behind us. So we've got 10.6% in the reserve. We've charged off about 6%. So you're up over 16% in terms of coverage, we feel pretty good about it, and that's where we think the losses are going to play out. And as Bruce mentioned, charge-offs themselves, maybe they peak later this year or early next. But we think we've got the reserves covered.

確切地。我認為我們也應該提到，僅考慮到我們所投入的資金，就意味著我們所投入的損失還有 6%。所以我們有 10.6% 的儲備金。我們已經收取了大約 6% 的費用。因此，就覆蓋範圍而言，您的覆蓋範圍增加了 16% 以上，我們對此感覺非常好，這就是我們認為損失將會發生的地方。正如布魯斯所提到的，沖銷本身可能會在今年晚些時候或明年初達到頂峰。但我們認為我們已經涵蓋了儲備金。

Your next question will come from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題將來自 Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler。

John, maybe just a thought on how much longer negative deposit migration continues. I think the prevailing wisdom is it's slowing, but just curious to hear your updated thoughts on kind of when and why we might trough.

約翰，也許只是想一下負存款遷移會持續多久。我認為普遍的看法是它正在放緩，但只是想聽聽您對我們何時以及為何會陷入低谷的最新想法。

Yes. I mean, we've been saying for a while that things have been decelerating. And I'd say our deposit performance this quarter has been -- has been excellent in terms of -- versus what we were expecting coming into the year. So again, deposit levels overall look good. DDA flows and low cost to high cost, migration overall, continuing to decelerate.

是的。我的意思是，我們已經說過一段時間事情正在減速。我想說，與我們對今年的預期相比，我們本季的存款表現一直非常出色。再說一次，存款水準整體看起來不錯。 DDA 流動從低成本到高成本，整體遷移持續減速。

And I think you can -- we can point to, if you look at where we are, we were at around 21% of DDA at the end of last year at 12/31 and that flattened out. We were at 21% at 03/31. So DDA for us is stabilizing. And the -- however, the low cost to high cost, again, decelerating. And as it will continue to decelerate. And what we've been indicating is that, that's going to continue until you see the first cut out of the Fed, which is historically what we would expect. But it's getting to the point where it's having a diminishing impact on net interest margin.

我認為你可以——我們可以指出，如果你看看我們現在的情況，去年年底 12 月 31 日我們的 DDA 約為 21%，然後就趨於平緩。截至 03 月 31 日，我們的進度為 21%。所以 DDA 對我們來說正在穩定。然而，從低成本到高成本的轉變再次減速。並且它將繼續減速。我們一直在表明的是，這種情況將持續下去，直到看到聯準會首次降息，這正是我們歷史上所期望的。但它對淨利差的影響正在逐漸減弱。

And so when you elevate overall, the contribution that our deposit franchise is delivering for net interest margin trends is excellent. And we're feeling very good about the trajectory, the DDA stability throughout the rest of '24 and getting back to growth because when you think about what's idiosyncratic to us and the strategic initiatives that we're launching, the Private Bank noninterest-bearing is accretive to the overall company. We're at maybe around 30% or more. And so that's dragging that number up. So I think we have some...

因此，當你整體提升時，我們的存款業務對淨利差趨勢的貢獻是非常出色的。我們對發展軌跡、DDA 在 24 年剩餘時間裡的穩定性以及恢復增長感到非常滿意，因為當你想到我們的特殊之處以及我們正在推出的戰略舉措時，私人銀行無息對整個公司有增值作用。我們可能在 30% 左右或更多。這導致了這個數字的上升。所以我想我們有一些...

New York Metro offers another opportunity.

紐約地鐵提供了另一個機會。

And New York Metro as well as a really good point. So the combination of those strategic initiatives, we have some expectation of DDA flattening out and growing as you get into the latter part of the year and that underpins the net interest margin quite nicely.

紐約地鐵也是一個非常好的點。因此，結合這些策略性舉措，我們預計 DDA 將在今年下半年趨於平穩並成長，這將很好地支撐淨利差。

Yes. Maybe, Brendan, you can add some color.

是的。也許，布倫丹，你可以添加一些顏色。

Yes. Sure. We've been talking for a couple of years now around how -- since so much of our deposit book comes through consumer that we believe that we've transformed the book to be pure like or better. And I would just reiterate that, that's what we're seeing. We were up modestly linked quarter on overall deposits in the consumer book with some benchmarking that we get from a variety of sources, we believe we were #1 in our peer set linked quarter on DDA.

是的。當然。我們已經討論了好幾年了——因為我們的存款簿大部分來自消費者，所以我們相信我們已經將存款簿變得純粹或更好。我想重申一下，這就是我們所看到的。根據我們從各種來源獲得的一些基準，我們的消費者帳戶總存款在季度中略有上升，我們相信我們在 DDA 的同業設定關聯季度中排名第一。

So on a relative basis, we still have a lot of confidence that we're outperforming peers and it's demonstrating the franchise quality that we've built. When you look at the customer level, customer deposits have actually been quite stable around $31,000 per customer. And the remixing of, as John pointed out, is pretty dramatically slowing. And I think that's kind of indicating that the COVID burn down is beginning to really run its course. So there may be a little bit more, but we feel pretty good that we're getting kind of the end of that behavioral cycle.

因此，相對而言，我們仍然非常有信心，我們的表現優於同行，這證明了我們所建立的特許經營品質。從客戶層面來看，客戶存款實際上相當穩定，約為每位客戶 31,000 美元。正如約翰指出的那樣，混音速度相當驚人。我認為這在某種程度上表明新冠疫情的消退已經開始真正結束。所以可能還有更多，但我們感覺很好，我們正在接近這種行為週期的結束。

We look at overall deposits on an inflation-adjusted basis, they're back to basically pre-COVID. So I think we're kind of nearing the operating floors here for consumer. Given the strength of low-cost deposits that we have had relative to peers. The other implication is how we're managing interest-bearing deposits. I do believe that we've peaked in the consumer segment in Q1 in our cost of funds. And why do I believe that we had $3 billion in CD rollover in March alone that were priced around 5%. We've retained 75% of those as they flipped over and materially lower prices between 3% and 4%.

我們在通貨膨脹調整後的基礎上審視整體存款，它們基本上回到了新冠疫情之前的水平。所以我認為我們已經接近消費者的操作平台了。考慮到我們相對於同業的低成本存款實力。另一個影響是我們如何管理生息存款。我確實相信，第一季消費者領域的資金成本已經達到頂峰。為什麼我相信光是 3 月我們就有 30 億美元的 CD 展期，定價約為 5%。我們保留了其中 75%，因為它們已翻轉，價格大幅降低了 3% 至 4%。

So you start to see the tailwinds building in that you can imagine the cost of funds in the consumer segment potentially beginning to reduce. We'll see how it plays out where rates are at. But I do believe we've sort of peaked here in Q1, and it's really driven by the strength of our low-cost performance. So we don't need to chase high interest-bearing costs as a result of that. So I feel really good about where we're at.

因此，您開始看到順風而行，您可以想像消費領域的資金成本可能開始降低。我們將看看它在利率水平上的表現如何。但我確實相信我們在第一季已經達到了頂峰，這實際上是由我們的低成本表現的力量推動的。所以我們不需要因此而追逐高額的生息成本。所以我對我們現在的處境感覺非常好。

Your next question will come from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

您的下一個問題將來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

John, if I may get some additional color on the loan growth commentary. I know you said it could come in at the low end of your initial expectation for the year and you cited weaker line utilization at this point. Where -- if you can maybe elaborate a little bit where you see some weakness in what pockets and where do you see some ultimate strengthening there in terms of timing? And then separately, a similar question around your deposit growth expectation. I think for the full year, you had figured out at around up 1% to 2%. Any additional color you can provide and how you're feeling around that guidance at this point?

約翰，請允許我對貸款成長評論進行一些補充。我知道您說過它可能會達到您今年最初預期的低端，並且您提到了此時線路利用率較弱。如果你能詳細說明一下，你在哪些領域看到了一些弱點，以及在時機方面你認為哪些地方有最終的加強？然後分別提出一個關於您的存款成長預期的類似問題。我認為全年增長約為 1% 到 2%。您可以提供任何其他顏色以及您目前對該指導的感受如何？

Yes, I'll just start off on loans and others can add. But I mean, what we're seeing is that utilization coming in a little lower in the first quarter and that than was originally expected. But nevertheless, we still see the -- in the second half, the interest around putting some working capital to work and commercial activity starting to pick up is really going to drive the reversal of that utilization trend as you get into the second half.

是的，我將從貸款開始，其他人可以添加。但我的意思是，我們看到第一季的利用率略低於最初的預期。但儘管如此，我們仍然看到，在下半年，人們對投入一些營運資金以及商業活動開始回升的興趣確實將在進入下半年時推動這一利用率趨勢的逆轉。

On the retail side of things, we're still seeing good opportunities in relationship mortgage and HELOC and in the Private Bank, where we've gotten a nice start in terms of -- which is mostly a commercial lending driven amount of activity in the subscription line space. And that we see that picking up. So all in, one it is playing out about as expected, meaning we may be just a little bit lighter on loans, but we had expected that would be the case. And then the pickup in the second half will be coming out of the commercial business and Private Bank. Maybe any other color.

在零售方面，我們仍然在關係抵押貸款和 HELOC 以及私人銀行方面看到了良好的機會，在這方面我們已經有了一個良好的開端——這主要是商業貸款驅動的大量活動。我們看到這種情況正在好轉。總而言之，事情正在按預期進行，這意味著我們的貸款可能會稍微減少一點，但我們已經預料到情況會是這樣。下半年的回升將來自商業業務和私人銀行。也許任何其他顏色。

That's well said, Don, any color.

說得好，唐，任何顏色。

Yes. No, I'll -- I think it's across the board on the commercial side. And part of it is due to the booming bond markets. I mean, we're seeing a lot of customers access the bond markets as opposed to draw down existing lines. And then I think there's a positive to it also, not for loan levels, but customers are running with lower leverage levels because they've been concerned about the economy.

是的。不，我會——我認為這在商業方面是全面的。部分原因是債券市場的蓬勃發展。我的意思是，我們看到很多客戶進入債券市場，而不是提取現有額度。我認為這也有積極的一面，不是貸款水平，而是客戶以較低的槓桿水平運行，因為他們一直擔心經濟。

We're seeing a broad, more positive view of the overall economy across really wide swaths of our client base. So that would indicate that they're going to get more active in things like plant construction, working capital, growth, M&A, and so that should drive some bounce back in the back half of the year.

我們看到我們廣大客戶群對整體經濟有了更廣泛、更正面的看法。因此，這表明他們將在工廠建設、營運資本、成長、併購等方面更加積極，這應該會在今年下半年推動一些反彈。

Anything from you, Brendan.

任何來自你的東西，布倫丹。

Yes. The only thing I would add is maybe just strategically that there's a lot of ins and outs under the cover. So as we run down auto by essentially $1.25 billion and other noncore is getting replaced with high relationship, high-returning asset growth, whether it's on the HELOC side or the Private Bank. So the headline numbers that you see around our loan growth, what you have to dig into is the transformative use of capital that we're doing around a handful of areas that have more durable, sticky revenue sources that are going to create more cross-sell around fees and other things over time. So we're pleased with how that's going.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，也許只是從戰略上講，幕後有很多來龍去脈。因此，隨著我們將汽車業務削減了 12.5 億美元，其他非核心業務正在被高關係、高回報的資產成長所取代，無論是 HELOC 還是私人銀行。因此，您在我們的貸款成長方面看到的標題數字，您必須深入研究的是我們正在圍繞少數擁有更持久、粘性收入來源的領域進行的資本的變革性使用，這些領域將創造更多的交叉隨著時間的推移，圍繞費用和其他東西進行銷售。所以我們對事情的進展感到滿意。

And then on the -- you had a question about deposits. On the deposit side of things in the first quarter, as I mentioned before, we saw DDA flatten out for the first time in many quarters. So that is really good to see. We also saw low cost flatten out. So overall, we were at 42% last quarter in low cost, we're at 42% this quarter and low cost plus DDA. So the deposit trends from a mix perspective have been favorable.

然後，您有一個關於存款的問題。在第一季的存款方面，正如我之前提到的，我們看到 DDA 在許多季度以來首次趨於平緩。所以這真的很高興看到。我們也看到低成本趨於平緩。總的來說，上個季度我們的低成本率為 42%，本季我們的低成本加 DDA 率為 42%。因此，從混合角度來看，存款趨勢是有利的。

And from a quantity level of deposits at the end of the quarter came in higher than expected. That's driven by just strong execution and our strategic initiatives contributing as we mentioned earlier, New York Metro and Private Bank along with the blocking and tackling that Brendan and Don have been at for a number of years to invest in the franchise. And so all of those investments are paying off, and we do expect to see deposit growth supporting our loan growth in the second half of '24.

而且從季末存款數量水準來看，也高於預期。正如我們之前提到的，這是由強有力的執行力和我們的戰略舉措推動的，紐約地鐵和私人銀行以及布倫丹和唐多年來為投資特許經營權而進行的阻撓和解決。因此，所有這些投資都得到了回報，我們確實預計存款成長將在 24 年下半年支持我們的貸款成長。

Yes, I would just -- I would highlight that -- just one last quick piece of color is that very pleased to see the Private Bank now has had kind of 2 quarters with $1 billion-plus of deposit growth and we certainly think that, that's sustainable and could even accelerate. So the ship has landed, and we're off to a great start, and we expect that to continue and even accelerate.

是的，我只是——我想強調這一點——最後一個快速的色彩是，非常高興看到私人銀行現在已經有兩個季度的存款增長超過 10 億美元，我們當然認為，這是可持續的，甚至可以加速。船已經著陸了，我們有了一個良好的開端，我們預計這種情況會繼續下去，甚至會加速。

Got it. All right. And then on the capital front, I did to see the resumption in buybacks, the $300 million in repurchases this quarter. With CET1 here at around 10.6% or 8.9% when you dial in the AOCI scenario, how do you look at the likelihood of incremental buybacks from here. In terms of a pace of buybacks, do you think that could be reasonable given where you're sitting right now on CET1.

知道了。好的。然後在資本方面，我確實看到了回購的恢復，本季回購了 3 億美元。當您撥入 AOCI 場景時，CET1 約為 10.6% 或 8.9%，您如何看待從這裡開始增量回購的可能性。就回購速度而言，考慮到您目前的 CET1 水平，您認為這是否合理？

Yes. I think this capital position that we've generated and have maintained is really creating a lot of flexibility. And when you think about our capital waterfall, I mean our top priority is to put capital to work, that is to support customers and clients that is accretive to our cost of capital over time. And that's really what we want to do and that we're expecting to do. And that's what capital allows us that flexibility.

是的。我認為我們所產生並維持的資本狀況確實創造了很大的彈性。當你想到我們的資本瀑佈時，我的意思是我們的首要任務是將資本投入使用，即支持客戶和客戶，隨著時間的推移，這會增加我們的資本成本。這確實是我們想要做的，也是我們期望做的。這就是資本賦予我們的靈活性。

It also cushions against uncertainties. And so there have been a number -- we look at the macro and being at a very strong capital level to be there for our clients, but also to cushion the downside to the extent uncertainties manifest is another use of a strong capital position. When you get down into kind of other potential uses of the capital. We support our dividend, of course, at top of the list. And then if we're left with elevated capital levels, then we're able to give it back to shareholders, which we did in the first quarter, we're planning to do that here in the second quarter. And that flexibility will continue into the second half.

它還可以緩衝不確定性。因此，我們著眼於宏觀經濟，擁有非常強大的資本水準來為我們的客戶提供服務，同時在不確定性明顯的情況下緩衝下行風險，這是強大資本頭寸的另一種用途。當你深入研究資本的其他潛在用途。當然，我們首先支持我們的股息。然後，如果我們的資本水平較高，那麼我們就能夠將其返還給股東，就像我們在第一季所做的那樣，我們計劃在第二季度這樣做。這種靈活性將持續到下半年。

So as we monitor loan demand and the macro, that will play into the trajectory of buybacks in the second half.

因此，當我們監控貸款需求和宏觀經濟時，這將影響下半年的回購軌跡。

Yes. And I would also just go back to an earlier comment that we have I'd say, a front-loaded plan this year because there's less loan growth. In fact, there's loan contraction earlier in the year that then turns around and we start to see loan growth in the second half of the year, that would, by definition, mean we need capital to support the loan growth and there'll be less capacity for share repurchases.

是的。我還要回到之前的評論，我想說的是，今年是一項提前計劃，因為貸款增長較少。事實上，今年早些時候出現了貸款收縮，然後又出現了逆轉，下半年我們開始看到貸款增長，從定義上來說，這意味著我們需要資本來支持貸款增長，而且貸款數量會減少股份回購能力。

But anyway, we gave the -- you saw the $300 million number in the first quarter, John mentioned $200 million in the second quarter. And then we'll see where we get to in the second half. If the loan growth fully doesn't materialize, we can actually just turn around and keep repurchasing the stock.

但無論如何，我們給了——你看到第一季的 3 億美元數字，約翰提到第二季的 2 億美元。然後我們會看看下半場我們能達到什麼水準。如果貸款成長沒有完全實現，我們實際上可以轉身繼續回購股票。

Your next question will come from the line of Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson.

你的下一個問題將來自 Peter Winter 和 D.A.戴維森。

You guys have maintained the net charge-off guidance for the year, but if we assume no rate cuts this year, could it lead to higher net charge-offs than forecasting just given kind of no relief on debt service coverage ratios or loans coming up for renewal at higher rates?

你們維持了今年的淨沖銷指導，但如果我們假設今年不降息，在債務償還覆蓋率或即將推出的貸款沒有減免的情況下，是否會導致淨沖銷比預測更高以更高的費率續訂？

Well, what I would say on that is the broad credit quality is still very good. So if you look at our C&I book, that's in really good shape. Companies weathered the pandemic and leaned our business models, locked in lower cost financing. They're doing more of that now early in the year. So we don't really see hotspots even with kind of a higher for longer scenario in C&I.

嗯，我想說的是，整體信用品質仍然非常好。所以如果你看一下我們的 C&I 書，你會發現它的情況非常好。公司經歷了這場流行病的考驗，並調整了我們的商業模式，鎖定了較低成本的融資。今年年初他們正在做更多這樣的事。因此，即使 C&I 中的長期場景較高，我們也沒有真正看到熱點。

Similarly, in consumer, we're still in very good shape. The consumer is benefiting from still strong liquidity levels, a strong labor market. And so we haven't seen any adverse migrations in delinquencies or NPAs or anything like that. So that's the bulk of the loan portfolio. If you then kind of look at the commercial real estate and the general office in particular, that's relatively small as a percentage of the overall loan book. And I think there's potentially some trends. We're watching the reports that return to office is picking up. And so maybe there's a little counter trend in office that offsets the kind of additional burden of hire for longer. But I think at the margin, it's not going to change that charge-off number materially.

同樣，在消費者方面，我們仍然處於非常好的狀態。消費者受益於依然強勁的流動性水準和強勁的勞動力市場。因此，我們沒有看到任何拖欠或不良資產或類似情況的不利遷移。這就是貸款組合的大部分。如果你再看看商業房地產，特別是一般辦公室，你會發現它在整個貸款帳簿中所佔的比例相對較小。我認為可能存在一些趨勢。我們正在關注重返辦公室的報道正在增加。因此，辦公室裡可能存在一些相反的趨勢，可以抵消長期招聘帶來的額外負擔。但我認為，在邊際上，它不會實質地改變沖銷數量。

Peter, I'll just add that from my side. we made no assumptions in our forecast that we're going to benefit from lower rates. Because we just didn't know and that's our credit policy. We don't go out on the future curve. We run all our scenarios based on where rates are today. So I think you've got a peak-ish kind of rate environment. If it lasts another couple of quarters or even another year, I don't think it's going to make a material difference to the way we forecast charge-offs.

彼得，我只是從我這邊補充。我們在預測中沒有假設我們將從較低的利率中受益。因為我們只是不知道，這就是我們的信貸政策。我們不會走出未來的曲線。我們根據今天的匯率運行所有場景。所以我認為現在的利率環境處於高峰狀態。如果這種情況再持續幾個季度甚至一年，我認為這不會對我們預測沖銷的方式產生重大影響。

The only point I would add on consumer is that our delinquency levels are actually net down year-over-year. Q1 over Q1, led mostly by resi, but we're seeing really no signs of stress on the book. As Bruce pointed out, so I feel really good and even in a higher for longer that unless there's a big economic shock that we're in really good shape.

我要對消費者補充的唯一一點是，我們的拖欠水準實際上逐年淨下降。第一季度超過第一季度，主要由 resi 主導，但我們實際上沒有看到這本書有壓力的跡象。正如布魯斯指出的那樣，所以我感覺非常好，甚至在更長的時間內都處於較高水平，除非出現重大的經濟衝擊，否則我們的狀況非常好。

And then just quickly, just a follow-up on office. I guess, I believe that more than half of the maturities on office happened this year. So do you think net charge-offs could peak towards the end of this year, maybe early next year and then start to trend lower?

然後很快，只是辦公室的後續行動。我想，我相信超過一半的任期是在今年到期的。那麼，您是否認為淨沖銷可能會在今年年底或明年初達到峰值，然後開始下降？

I -- it's really hard to forecast that. I think they will be early next year or late this year probably, but it depends how much we extend, how the negotiations go, how much capital is put into some of these transactions and working through the book loan by loan. It's -- I don't have the crystal ball to say exactly when the peak is. But I'll go back to what I said before is we're comfortable how it's kind of progressing is progressing according to our expectations.

我——真的很難預測這一點。我認為它們可能會在明年初或今年年底，但這取決於我們延長多少期限、談判如何進行、在其中一些交易中投入了多少資本以及通過逐筆貸款進行賬簿貸款。我沒有水晶球來準確說出峰值是什麼時候。但我要回到我之前所說的，我們對事情的進展符合我們的期望感到滿意。

Your next question will come from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題將來自肯·烏斯丁 (Ken Usdin) 和杰弗里斯 (Jefferies) 的線路。

Just a question on the fee side. It's really nice to see the capital markets improvement as you would have been thinking as we're seeing more broadly. I'm just wondering a couple of line items went well, a couple of items kind of went backward. Just wondering just how you're thinking about the fee progression, the drivers and what's your pipeline look like relative to the better start point here for the first quarter capital markets.

只是收費方面的問題。很高興看到資本市場的改善，正如我們在更廣泛的範圍內所看到的那樣。我只是想知道有幾個專案進展順利，有幾個專案有點倒退。只是想知道您如何看待費用進展、驅動因素以及相對於第一季資本市場的更好起點而言您的管道是什麼樣的。

Yes, I'll start off and others can jump in here. But I mean, the drivers -- I mean, you look at the big 3 for us, capital markets, card fees and wealth trust and investment services, these are all they are trending well, and we expect to be significant contributors in 2024. So each of those businesses have had significant strategic investment over the years and even more recently. So it's really nice to see the investments made in the capital markets business come to fruition. We had a good strong quarter in the first quarter, #1 in the lead tables on the sponsor side, big rebound from the fourth quarter and early in the second quarter. The activity -- the pace of activity has continued, and we feel very good about the trends there, not only for 2Q, but for the full year.

是的，我將從這裡開始，其他人可以從這裡開始。但我的意思是，驅動因素- 我的意思是，你看看我們的三大驅動因素，資本市場、卡費以及財富信託和投資服務，這些都是趨勢良好的，我們預計將在2024 年成為重要貢獻者。因此，很高興看到資本市場業務的投資取得成果。我們在第一季表現強勁，在贊助商方面領先表中排名第一，從第四季和第二季初開始大幅反彈。活動的節奏仍在繼續，我們對那裡的趨勢感覺非常好，不僅是第二季度，而且是全年。

In the card business, we've made a strategic conversion to Mastercard, and that's driving a number of positive developments there and in the wealth business, as you know, all of the adviser hires the Clarfeld acquisition from a number of years ago are all coming together along with the Private Bank to drive those flows throughout 2024. So we're feeling quite good about the trajectory for fees.

在卡片業務方面，我們已經向萬事達卡進行了戰略轉型，這推動了那裡的許多積極發展，在財富業務方面，如您所知，多年前收購 Clarfeld 時聘請的所有顧問都是與私人銀行合作，在2024 年推動這些流量。

I would just say, to your point, Ken, also that there were those 3 strong areas. And then we had a little bit of weakness in some other areas, service charges, mortgage, the global markets, FX and interest rate lines were a little below our expectations. The good news there is there's nothing structural that we worry about. I think we'll see bounce backs over the rest of the year, which will add to our overall growth and our confidence that we'll maintain strong fee performance for the year.

肯，我只想說，就你的觀點而言，還有這 3 個強項。然後我們在其他一些領域也有一些弱點，服務費、抵押貸款、全球市場、外匯和利率線略低於我們的預期。好消息是我們無需擔心任何結構性問題。我認為我們將在今年剩餘時間內看到反彈，這將促進我們的整體成長，並增強我們對今年將保持強勁費用表現的信心。

Okay. Great. And just one more follow-up on the NII and the swaps and just looking at your Pages 25 and 26 from the deck. And it's pretty clear that you're saying the increases you've made to the swap book are all incorporated in the guidance. So that first quarter to fourth quarter, $35 million cumulative net interest income impact, is that inclusive of everything that is both like active as of now and then will prospectively still come on as the year progresses?

好的。偉大的。還有一個關於 NII 和掉期的後續行動，只需查看甲板上的第 25 和 26 頁。很明顯，您所說的對掉期帳簿所做的增加都已納入指南中。那麼，從第一季到第四季度，累計淨利息收入 3,500 萬美元的影響是否包括了目前活躍的所有因素以及隨著時間的推移，未來仍將出現的所有因素？

Yes. Yes, it is. And so what that is, that $35 million is made up of about $50 million, primarily driven from active swaps that are outstanding. So there's about $20 billion notional of active swaps outstanding. That grows to about $30 billion by 4Q. That's incorporated into that number. But then it's offset by the positive benefit from noncore of about, call it $17 million or so, or $15 million to $20 million coming from noncore and that gets you to the $35 million drag.

是的。是的。那麼這 3500 萬美元由大約 5000 萬美元組成，主要來自未償還的主動掉期。因此，名義上的主動掉期合約餘額約為 200 億美元。到第四季度，這一數字將增加至約 300 億美元。這已納入該數字中。但隨後它被非核心帶來的正面收益所抵消，大約為 1700 萬美元左右，或來自非核心的 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元，這會讓你陷入 3500 萬美元的拖累。

But really, when you play it out for the rest of the year, again, broadly, net interest margin trends are coming in a little better, incorporating all of our swap activity, what you see on Page 25 is just the receive-fixed swaps. We actually have pay-fixed swaps in the securities portfolio that are offsetting this as well as, of course, everything that's happening in the core balance sheet. So you got to kind of think at the broadest sense that NIM trends are actually coming in a little better.

但實際上，當你在今年剩餘時間裡進行分析時，總的來說，淨息差趨勢會好一點，考慮到我們所有的掉期活動，你在第25 頁上看到的只是接收固定掉期。實際上，我們的證券投資組合中有固定報酬的互換，可以抵消這一點，當然也抵消了核心資產負債表中發生的一切。因此，你必須從最廣泛的意義上思考，NIM 趨勢實際上正在好轉一些。

And then as you get out to later years, you start getting all of this tailwind is really baked in. And you start seeing the fact that terminated swaps begin to contribute. It gets to the point where you get out into 2026 and 2027 that a majority of a super majority, if you will, of the tailwinds are actually baked in and aren't rate dependent. But you have that right in terms of the 4Q components that incorporates everything on the receive-fixed swap side plus noncore.

然後，當你進入到後來的幾年時，你開始感受到所有這些順風都真正融入其中。到了 2026 年和 2027 年，如果你願意的話，絕大多數的順風實際上已經形成，並且不依賴利率。但就 4Q 元件而言，您擁有這種權利，它包含接收固定交換側的所有內容以及非核心內容。

And I'd just add color there, Ken, is I think coming into the year, people were concerned about that step-up that we had forward starting swaps in Q2 and then more in Q3. The guide that we're giving and our confidence in the NIM outlook incorporate that. So we're able to absorb that because higher for longer is better for the core balance sheet. We have some pay-fixed swaps we did in the securities book. So we're able to absorb kind of that step-up in the swap book and continue to maintain confidence in the NIM outlook for the year.

我想補充一點，肯，我認為進入今年，人們擔心我們在第二季開始提前交換，然後在第三季進行更多交換。我們提供的指南以及我們對 NIM 前景的信心都包含了這一點。所以我們能夠吸收這一點，因為持續時間越高對核心資產負債表越好。我們在證券帳簿中進行了一些固定報酬掉期交易。因此，我們能夠吸收掉期帳簿中的某種增量，並繼續對今年的淨利差前景保持信心。

Yes. That's great, Bruce. And if I can just bring that all together, so you broadly affirmed your broader guidance of down 6% to down 9%, and we kind of know the first quarter and have the second quarter outlook. So what would be the biggest swing factors within that range based on all these points that you're making about the NIM coming in better and now knowing more of this detail about how the swaps will work.

是的。太好了，布魯斯。如果我能把所有這些綜合起來，那麼您大致肯定了下降 6% 至 9% 的更廣泛指導，我們對第一季度有所了解，並對第二季度前景有所了解。那麼，根據您關於 NIM 變得更好的所有這些觀點，並且現在更多地了解有關掉期如何運作的細節，該範圍內最大的波動因素是什麼。

Yes. To me, it's really volume would be the key to where we land in that range. So do we actually see that strong growth in the Private Bank accelerating that could be strong for deposits and attractive deposit funding. And then the spread that they're making on their loans is also very attractive. So that's totally accretive to front book, back book. Do we see the growth in commercial that we expect come in. And I think we -- based on our kind of pipelines and our conversations with our customers and also a feeling that the sponsored community.

是的。對我來說，成交量確實是我們達到這個範圍的關鍵。因此，我們實際上是否看到私人銀行的強勁成長加速，這可能對存款和有吸引力的存款融資產生強勁影響。而且他們的貸款利差也非常有吸引力。所以這對前書、後書來說都是完全增值的。我們是否看到了我們期望的商業成長。

Right now, there's been a lot of pull forward in refinancing, but I think you're going to start to see some more new money deals in the second half of the year. So I think those volume factors will have a big impact. But the way we kind of see it looking out the window today, we're highly confident that those things will materialize. I don't know, John, if you want to add anything.

目前，再融資已取得很大進展，但我認為今年下半年你將開始看到更多新的資金交易。所以我認為這些體積因素將會產生很大的影響。但從我們今天看到窗外的情況來看，我們非常有信心這些事情將會成為現實。約翰，我不知道你是否想補充什麼。

Yes, I agree with all that. I'd say that even with a little bit of lighter loan demand, we still think that range is good. Maybe it comes out at a higher end versus the lower end. But I mean I think that's a swing factor. All the other components of the balance sheet are playing out well. Our outlook for deposit mix and funding mix is underpinning the net interest margin. I would hasten to add that those pay-fixed swaps that we added last quarter in 1Q and also in 4Q, have really driven really nice uptake in the securities yield.

是的，我同意這一切。我想說，即使貸款需求稍微減少，我們仍然認為這個範圍是好的。也許它會出現在高端而不是低端。但我的意思是我認為這是一個搖擺因素。資產負債表的所有其他組成部分都表現良好。我們對存款組合和融資組合的展望支撐著淨利差。我想趕緊補充一點，我們在上個季度第一季和第四季添加的那些付費固定掉期確實推動了證券收益率的大幅成長。

You see the securities yields up almost 40 basis points in the first quarter, and that's offsetting -- that's a huge component of our balance sheet, and that's a big driver. And then I should also make clear that the core balance sheet is contributing as well where we're seeing front book back book on the loan side that is in the range of 300 basis points in the first quarter. And you're getting front book back on the securities book of around 200 basis points. So there are good dynamics in the core balance sheet and all of the swaps are baked in.

你會看到第一季證券收益率上漲了近 40 個基點，這是我們資產負債表的一個重要組成部分，這是一個很大的推動因素。然後我還應該明確指出，核心資產負債表也做出了貢獻，我們看到第一季貸款的前帳後帳在 300 個基點的範圍內。您將在證券帳簿上獲得約 200 個基點的前帳面回報。因此，核心資產負債表有良好的動態，所有掉期都已納入其中。

You said we could come in at the higher end. I think you meant the better end. Just for everybody's clarity on that part.

你說過我們可以進入高端市場。我認為你的意思是更好的結局。只是為了讓大家清楚地了解這部分。

Your next question will come from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Most of my questions have been answered, but I'm curious when you talk about kind of this medium-term net interest margin. What are your thoughts on the size of the balance sheet? And I guess, specifically, like do you think the overall balance sheet will grow or is there the remixing, Clearly, you're running off of the noncore book growing the Private Bank. But do you envision kind of net balance sheet growth as you look out the next few years?

我的大部分問題都已得到解答，但當您談論這種中期淨利差時，我很好奇。您對資產負債表的規模有何看法？我想，具體來說，就像您認為整體資產負債表會成長還是會進行重組一樣，顯然，您正在耗盡私人銀行成長的非核心帳簿。但展望未來幾年，您是否預期資產負債表淨成長會出現某種程度的成長？

Yes. I'd say that we do expect the balance sheet to grow. It's -- I think we do have a balance sheet optimization program that's turning over a certain portion of the portfolio. But when you look at the grand total of the initiatives that we're putting in place, I think you see interest-earning assets are -- will be growing in the second half of the year. And as you get out over the medium term, so I think that we have the opportunity to optimize and grow. And that's our expectation.

是的。我想說，我們確實預期資產負債表會成長。我認為我們確實有一個資產負債表優化計劃，可以轉變投資組合的某個部分。但當你看看我們正在實施的總舉措數時，我認為你會發現生息資產將在今年下半年成長。當你在中期退出時，我認為我們有機會優化和成長。這就是我們的期望。

Yes. I would say the kind of flex point is kind of middle of the year when we have done a lot of that heavy lifting on the repositioning, and then we start to see the Private Bank growth in Commercial Bank as we discussed, started to kick in. So we should see net growth already in the second half of the year. And then kind of looking out '25 to '27, we would expect in a strong economy that we could get back to reasonably strong growth rates.

是的。我想說，這種拐點是在年中，當時我們在重新定位方面做了很多繁重的工作，然後我們開始看到商業銀行的私人銀行增長，正如我們所討論的那樣，開始發揮作用因此，我們應該會在今年下半年看到淨成長。然後展望 25 至 27 年，我們預計在強勁的經濟中我們可以恢復到相當強勁的成長率。

Again, being selective where we play, focusing on primary relationships and primacy, but there's no reason we couldn't grow back at nominal GDP the way we did for kind of many years before we hit the pandemic, and that plays into math that, the delivery of positive operating leverage, which is part of how you get your return on equity up. And so that's the model we'd like to get back to.

再說一次，我們要精挑細選，重點關注主要關係和首要地位，但我們沒有理由不能像疫情爆發前很多年那樣以名義 GDP 的速度恢復增長，這會影響到數學，提供積極的運營槓桿，這是提高股本回報率的一部分。這就是我們想要回到的模型。

Your next question will come from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

您的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行的 Gerard Cassidy。

This is Thomas Leddy calling on behalf of Gerard. Circling back to capital deployment quickly. You guys were pretty busy in 2023 in terms of strategic actions. Can you update us on how you're thinking about further investment opportunities for the franchise and how you guys prioritize organic growth versus team lift outs or even outright M&A?

我是托馬斯·萊迪代表傑拉德打來的電話。快速回到資本部署。 2023 年，你們在策略行動上非常忙碌。您能否向我們介紹一下您如何考慮該特許經營權的進一步投資機會以及您如何優先考慮有機增長與團隊剝離甚至徹底併購？

Yes. So I'd say that right now, we have a very full plate in terms of the things that we're investing in, the organic growth initiatives we have. So I would not -- we're not really looking much at inorganic situations or opportunities. And so I want to just stay focused on great execution. There's a big payoff for getting these initiatives right, and they're all kind of form the trend line. I would say team lift outs, you mentioned is something that we're hinting at, at this point because while we have the Private Bank in place, and we have kind of Clarfeld as part of a private wealth complex, we need to scale up our private wealth capabilities to a large extent.

是的。所以我想說，現在，我們在投資、有機成長計畫方面有一個非常完整的板塊。所以我不會——我們並沒有真正關注無機情況或機會。所以我想專注於出色的執行力。正確實施這些舉措會帶來巨大的回報，而且它們都形成了趨勢線。我想說的是，你提到的團隊退出是我們目前正在暗示的事情，因為雖然我們擁有私人銀行，並且我們有克拉菲爾德作為私人財富綜合體的一部分，但我們需要擴大規模我們的私人財富能力在很大程度上。

And so we are having discussions with teams, and you can watch this space because I think you'll start to see us build that part of the business out. But again, it will be prudent. We'll treat them like they're kind of M&A transactions that are accretive and they fit our strategy and their good cultural fits but that's kind of the only thing I would say that we're looking kind of outside. And to some extent, that's organic. You could argue whether that's organic or whether it's acquisition like, but we're kind of using the same acquisition lens on these as if they were small deals. I don't know, Brendan, if you want to put any color on that.

因此，我們正在與團隊進行討論，您可以觀看這個空間，因為我認為您會開始看到我們建立這部分業務。但同樣，這將是謹慎的。我們會像對待增值交易一樣對待它們，它們符合我們的策略和良好的文化契合度，但這是我唯一想說的，我們正在尋找外部。在某種程度上，這是有機的。你可能會爭論這是有機的還是收購類的，但我們對這些交易使用相同的收購鏡頭，就好像它們是小交易一樣。我不知道，布倫丹，你是否想對此添加任何顏色。

Maybe 2 quick points. One is that I'd just say the interest in citizens from a wealth management perspective is at a high, like we've never seen before. So we're talking to some of the very best wealth managers across all the big brands in the United States. And so we're going to be very selective. But the interest in what we're doing here is quite unique and distinctive. So we expect to board some top talent and really give a boost to our wealth strategy.

也許有 2 個快點。一是我想說，從財富管理的角度來看，公民的興趣很高，這是我們以前從未見過的。因此，我們正在與美國所有大品牌中一些最優秀的財富管理機構進行交談。所以我們會非常有選擇性。但我們對這裡所做的事情的興趣是非常獨特和獨特的。因此，我們希望聘請一些頂尖人才，真正推動我們的財富策略。

But the point around capital that you mentioned, though, just to -- even though we're mentally potentially thinking about the return metrics like we would in M&A deal. Keep in mind that a lift out or what we do with the Private Bank really is a very de minimis impact on capital. And so that's why when you look -- when we talk about the breakeven of the Private Bank being second half of this year, it's really just eating through the expense guarantees and getting the revenue throughput. So it has a very de minimis impact on capital. And the same will be true on wealth lift-outs where the teams we bring on board, it will be much more of a expense guarantee mindset and getting them through their revenue curve versus having any real material impact on our capital.

但你提到的關於資本的觀點只是——儘管我們在心理上可能會像在併購交易中那樣考慮回報指標。請記住，退出或我們對私人銀行所做的事情確實對資本產生了微不足道的影響。這就是為什麼當我們談論今年下半年私人銀行的盈虧平衡時，它實際上只是在消耗費用保證並獲得收入吞吐量。所以它對資本的影響非常小。對於我們引入的團隊來說，財富提升也是如此，這將更像是一種費用保證心態，讓他們通過收入曲線，而不是對我們的資本產生任何真正的實質影響。

Okay. Great. That's helpful color. And then just separately on loan growth. C&I demand has obviously been pretty tepid despite pretty healthy growth in the economy as measured by real GDP, do you think that lack of C&I loan demand is being driven by just general customer caution? Or are you guys seeing more competition from nonbank players like the private credit market and others?

好的。偉大的。這是有用的顏色。然後分別討論貸款成長。儘管以實際GDP衡量的經濟成長相當健康，但商業和工業貸款需求顯然相當不溫不火，您認為商業和工業貸款需求的缺乏是否只是由於一般客戶的謹慎態度所致？或者你們看到來自私人信貸市場等非銀行參與者的更多競爭？

Yes. I think it's just a general caution about what's going to happen in the economy, what's going to happen with rates. And I think most of our companies have had good years, but they're still expressing caution. So we're actually not losing business to private credit. It's interesting. We're actually -- it's coming the other way because there's been opportunities to take loans that are out with private credit and move them over to the bank syndicated lending market, refinance those and kind of lock in lower cost financing. So -- that's been a big part of the story here in the first quarter, and it's continuing into the second quarter. Don.

是的。我認為這只是對經濟將會發生什麼、利率將會發生什麼的一般性警告。我認為我們的大多數公司都度過了美好的時光，但他們仍然表現出謹慎的態度。所以我們實際上並沒有因為私人信貸而失去業務。這真有趣。事實上，我們正​​以相反的方式發展，因為有機會將私人信貸發放的貸款轉移到銀行銀團貸款市場，為這些貸款進行再融資，並鎖定較低成本的融資。所以——這是第一季故事的一個重要部分，並將持續到第二季​​。大學教師。

I think that's right. I think the area that we see private credit most active is in the leverage buyout market, which we don't hold a lot of that on our balance sheet anyway. So they are a source of distribution for us. So we've actually done a couple of deals in the first quarter where we've distributed into the private credit market. So it doesn't have a balance sheet impact that it helps drive some of our fee lines.

我認為這是對的。我認為，我們認為私人信貸最活躍的領域是槓桿收購市場，無論如何，我們的資產負債表上並沒有太多的槓桿收購市場。所以它們是我們的分銷來源。因此，我們實際上在第一季完成了幾筆交易，並將其分配給私人信貸市場。因此，它不會對資產負債表產生影響，但有助於推動我們的一些費用線。

Your next question will come from the line of Dave Rochester with Compass Point.

您的下一個問題將來自 Dave Rochester 和 Compass Point 的線路。

Earlier, you mentioned that the flows were a major driving swing factor of that NII guide. I know you mentioned expecting a little less loan growth this year. But you mentioned possibly hitting the better end of that NII range. If for whatever reason, net loan growth doesn't materialize in the back half and C&I growth only ends up filling in for the runoff that you're expecting? Can you still hit that NII guide for the year?

早些時候，您提到流量是 NII 指南的主要驅動因素。我知道您提到預計今年的貸款成長會減少。但您提到可能會達到 NII 範圍的更好一端。如果出於某種原因，淨貸款成長在下半年沒有實現，而商業和工業成長最終只是填補了您預期的徑流？你還能達到今年的 NII 指南嗎？

Yes. I mean I would say that we're still confident in the range. And so if things break our way, we could be at the better side of that range. If they don't, we could be at the lower end of that range. So I'd still kind of use that as the guardrails. You'd have to have kind of quite a bit of deviation from expectation to fall outside of that range.

是的。我的意思是，我們對這個範圍仍然充滿信心。因此，如果事情打破了我們的方式，我們可能會在這個範圍內處於更好的位置。如果他們不這樣做，我們可能會處於該範圍的下限。所以我仍然會用它作為護欄。你必須與預期有相當大的偏差才能超出該範圍。

Yes, great. And just to reiterate that point, -- what we've been saying is that we have an expectation that we'll come in at the better end of the range for net interest margin based on the trends that we're seeing and the performance we were able to generate in the first quarter. So you would see us being at the upper end of that range, maybe a tad better. On net interest margin, that's offsetting the fact that there's some lighter loan demand that we're also seeing that. You put those together, and we're right down the middle there in terms of that range, and we have got back to the point Bruce just made. And that's our base case now that we're updating. And there could be puts and takes to that depending upon the volume point that Bruce made earlier.

對，很好。只是重申這一點，我們一直在說的是，根據我們所看到的趨勢和表現，我們預計我們將在淨息差範圍內達到更好的水平我們能夠在第一季度實現盈利。所以你會看到我們處於該範圍的上限，也許更好一點。就淨利差而言，這抵消了我們也看到的貸款需求減少的事實。你把它們放在一起，我們就在這個範圍的中間，我們回到了布魯斯剛才提出的觀點。這就是我們現在正在更新的基本情況。根據布魯斯之前提出的音量點，可能會有調整和調整。

Your next question comes from the line of David Konrad with KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 David Konrad。

Sorry if I missed this earlier, but just kind of drilling down on the NIM discussion. Just looking at this quarter, curious on C&I yields dropped around 36 bps quarter-over-quarter. I didn't think this was a heavy swap onboarding this quarter, but just curious where we're looking at that maybe in the next quarter before the swaps come out in the third quarter.

抱歉，如果我之前錯過了這一點，但只是深入研究 NIM 的討論。光是看本季，對 C&I 收益率的好奇就環比下降了約 36 個基點。我不認為這是本季的重大互換，但只是好奇我們可能會在下個季度在第三季互換推出之前考慮這一點。

Yes. I mean, really what's going on, as you've hit it. I'd say, just broadly, I would try to make the point that all the swaps are incorporated into the NIM guide. And when you look at the underlying fundamentals of the loan book, the front book back book is driving an increase in loan yields ex swaps. So that's the first point. As it relates to when you pull the swaps together from an accounting standpoint, why there is a negative impact from a swap standpoint, is that there was a mix shift -- we had the swap notional didn't change much, but we had some maturities at higher receives being replaced by some forward starters coming in at lower receipts. And that overall -- that net receive rate fell in the quarter, and that's why you ended up with that negative impact just on that line itself.

是的。我的意思是，真的發生了什麼事，正如你所擊中的那樣。我想說，從廣義上講，我會嘗試指出所有互換都已納入 NIM 指南中。當你檢視貸款帳簿的基本面時，會發現前帳本、後帳簿正在推動貸款收益率（除掉期）的增加。這是第一點。因為它涉及到當你從會計的角度將掉期放在一起時，為什麼從掉期的角度來看會產生負面影響，因為存在混合轉變——我們的掉期名義上沒有太大變化，但我們有一些變化收益較高的到期日被一些收益較低的遠期啟動所取代。總體而言，本季的淨接收率有所下降，這就是為什麼您最終只對該線路本身產生負面影響。

But again, overall, net interest margin was flat for the quarter. And when you put it all together with all the components, we had quite a strong net interest margin performance even incorporating that swap drag.

但整體而言，本季淨利差持平。當你將其與所有組成部分放在一起時，我們的淨利差表現相當強勁，即使考慮到掉期阻力。

Yes, I agree. And then you talked about the securities book both the front book, back book and then the pay floaters coming out. But just curious your outlook for the growth of the securities book going forward?

是的我同意。然後你談到了證券帳簿，包括前面的帳簿、後面的帳簿以及隨後出現的浮動薪酬。但只是好奇您對未來證券帳簿成長的展望嗎？

Yes. I mean I think we've gotten to the point where we had the liquidity build late last year. And that's basically largely done. And so where you see the securities book right now as a percentage of our overall interest earning assets is about where we'll be over time. As we grow loans, we'll probably grow securities and cash on a similar mix basis from a volume standpoint, but the percentage of cash and securities to overall interest-earning assets at the end of the first quarter is about where we'll be for the rest of the year.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們已經達到了去年底建立流動性的地步。這基本上已經完成了。因此，你現在看到的證券帳簿占我們整體生息資產的百分比，就是我們隨著時間的推移將會達到的水平。當我們增加貸款時，從數量的角度來看，我們可能會以類似的組合方式增加證券和現金，但第一季末現金和證券佔整體生息資產的百分比大約是我們的水平今年剩下的時間裡。

And I would hasten to add that when you look at that, that's reflected of our deposit franchise and being primarily consumer and having a much higher proportion of insured/secured -- insured/secured deposits than most peers. And then if you crank it all through the way the Fed looks at standardized Category 1 banks, our LCR incorporating all of that at 03/31 was 120%, which is incredibly strong from a liquidity standpoint. And and that's played through based upon the balance sheet mix overall, including cash and securities.

我想趕緊補充一點，當你看到這一點時，這反映了我們的存款特許經營權，主要是消費者，並且與大多數同行相比，保險/擔保存款的比例要高得多。然後，如果你按照聯準會看待標準化 1 類銀行的方式進行調整，我們在 03 月 31 日納入所有這些的 LCR 為 120%，從流動性的角度來看，這是非常強勁的。這是根據整體資產負債表組合（包括現金和證券）來實現的。

Your next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞（Manan Gosalia）。

Maybe as a follow-up to the last question, is there any change in how you're thinking through positioning in the medium term with the expectation for fewer rate cuts coming through? So with loan growth being a little bit weaker right now, deposit growth being pretty solid, as you noted, are you willing to put on a little bit more duration on the security side? And separately, has it got cheaper to put in some downside protection on NIM as you look into 2025 and 2026. And is that something you're considering right now?

也許作為最後一個問題的後續，您對中期定位的思考方式是否有任何變化，預計降息次數會減少？因此，正如您所指出的，由於目前貸款成長有點疲軟，存款成長相當穩健，您是否願意在擔保方面增加一點期限？另外，當你展望 2025 年和 2026 年時，對 NIM 進行一些下行保護是否會變得更便宜。

Yes. I would say on the securities side, I'd say there's a couple of objectives being addressed, and it's the interplay between capital and liquidity and interest [reverse] management. So what we did over the last couple of quarters is we've added $7 billion of pay-fixed swaps that has paid off quite nicely because of our view that rates were likely to be down, whatever, however many cuts we thought they were at the beginning of the year, 5, 6, 7 cuts, we thought that was probably a little overcooked. And so we put on those pay-fixed swaps in part related to that.

是的。我想說，在證券方面，有幾個目標正在解決，那就是資本和流動性以及利息[反向]管理之間的相互作用。因此，我們在過去幾個季度所做的是，我們增加了70 億美元的固定工資掉期，這已經帶來了相當好的回報，因為我們認為利率可能會下降，無論如何，無論我們認為利率會下降多少今年年初，進行了 5、6、7 次切割，我們認為可能有點煮過頭了。因此，我們進行了部分與此相關的付費固定掉期交易。

But in part related to the multiyear objective to reduce the duration of the securities book given how it will likely be treated from a capital standpoint. And so both of those objectives came into play when we shortened the duration of the securities book, which right now is about 3.8 years. We're likely to continue to shorten the duration book of that securities book over time and get down to something closer to 3 or thereabouts. And so that's really the driver there.

但部分與減少證券帳簿期限的多年目標有關，考慮到從資本角度可能如何對待它。因此，當我們縮短證券帳簿的期限（目前約為 3.8 年）時，這兩個目標都發揮了作用。隨著時間的推移，我們可能會繼續縮短該證券帳簿的久期，並降至接近 3 或左右。所以這裡確實是那裡的司機。

But you got to look at the overall balance sheet and from an overall balance sheet standpoint, it made sense to add a little asset sensitivity in the fourth quarter and the first quarter. And we had 03/31, we remain an asset-sensitive balance sheet. When it comes to adding downside protection in the out years, we do note that we have a significant drop off of receive-fixed swaps when you get out into 2026 and '27. And I think entry points matter. So if rates continue to stay elevated, and we think there's value there. We want to be careful that we don't give up our upside that the C&I loan book provides us and we'll do that when the entry points are attractive in terms of that trade and locking it in.

但你必須看看整體資產負債表，從整體資產負債表的角度來看，在第四季和第一季增加一點資產敏感度是有意義的。 03/31，我們仍然是資產敏感的資產負債表。當談到在未來幾年增加下行保護時，我們確實注意到，當進入 2026 年和 27 年時，我們的接收固定掉期將大幅下降。我認為切入點很重要。因此，如果利率繼續保持高位，我們認為這是有價值的。我們要小心，不要放棄 C&I 貸款簿為我們提供的優勢，當進入點對該交易具有吸引力並鎖定它時，我們就會這樣做。

And in general, that would be consistent with something that would be north of 4% of a receive rate out into '26 and '27, and we'll be opportunistic as the rate environment plays out in terms of how we continue to protect the balance sheet over the medium term.

總的來說，這與 26 年和 27 年接收率的 4% 以上是一致的，隨著利率環境的發展，我們將採取機會主義態度，以繼續保護中期資產負債表。

Got it. Very helpful. And then this morning, one of your peers has suggested that they're seeing corporate behavior shifting from NIB to IB. Are you seeing some of your corporate clients take another look at optimizing their NIB balances in the higher for longer rate environment recently?

知道了。很有幫助。今天早上，您的一位同行表示，他們看到企業行為從 NIB 轉向 IB。您最近是否看到您的一些企業客戶重新考慮在較高利率環境下優化其 NIB 餘額？

I think it's pretty much run its course at this point. We've had a little bit of a shift in the book, but it's really slowed down. I think the clients have been pretty opportunistic in terms of taking advantage of higher rates. So I'd say our book and our mix is pretty stable right now, and we expect it to stay here.

我認為目前這一切已經基本完成。我們在書中做了一些轉變，但速度確實變慢了。我認為客戶在利用更高利率方面相當機會主義。所以我想說我們的書和我們的組合現在相當穩定，我們希望它能留在這裡。

Yes. And I'd say overall, you saw our DDA stable at 21% at the end of 1Q, 21% at the end of 4Q. That's important. That's the first time this has happened in a while. And so that stability we expect to continue as you get throughout the -- for the rest of the year and actually see growth, as we mentioned earlier, based on other strategic initiatives and the Private Bank contributing.

是的。我想說的是，總體而言，我們的 DDA 在第一季末穩定在 21%，在第四季末穩定在 21%。這很重要。這是一段時間以來第一次發生這種情況。因此，正如我們之前提到的，基於其他策略舉措和私人銀行的貢獻，我們預計這種穩定性將在今年剩餘時間內持續下去，並且實際上會看到成長。

There are no further questions in the queue. And with that, I'll turn it back over to Mr. Van Saun for closing remarks.

隊列中沒有其他問題。接下來，我將把它轉回給 Van Saun 先生做總結發言。

Okay. Well, thanks, everyone, for dialing in today. We appreciate your interest and support for Citizens. Have a great day.

好的。好的，謝謝大家今天撥電話。我們感謝您對公民的關注和支持。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude your conference call for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Event Teleconferencing. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 活動電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。