Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Citizens Financial Group Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Alan, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded.

大家早上好，歡迎參加公民金融集團 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。我叫艾倫，今天我將擔任你們的接線員。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，正在記錄此事件。

Now I'll turn the call over to Kristin Silberberg, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations. Kristin, you may begin.

現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係執行副總裁 Kristin Silberberg。克里斯汀，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Alan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, this morning, our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and CFO, John Woods, will provide an overview of our second quarter results. Brendan Coughlin, Head of Consumer Banking; and Don McCree, Head of Commercial Banking, are also here to provide additional color. We will be referencing our second quarter earnings presentation located on our Investor Relations website. After the presentation, we will be happy to take questions.

謝謝你，艾倫。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。首先，今天上午，我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Bruce Van Saun；首席財務官約翰·伍茲 (John Woods) 將概述我們第二季度的業績。 Brendan Coughlin，消費者銀行業務主管；商業銀行業務主管唐·麥克雷 (Don McCree) 也在這裡提供了更多信息。我們將參考投資者關係網站上的第二季度收益報告。演示結束後，我們將很樂意回答問題。

Our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. These are outlined for your review on Page 2 of the presentation. We also reference non-GAAP financial measures, so it's important to review our GAAP results on Page 3 of the presentation and the reconciliations in the appendix.

我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期存在重大差異。這些內容在演示文稿的第 2 頁上進行了概述，供您查看。我們還參考了非 GAAP 財務指標，因此務必查看演示文稿第 3 頁上的 GAAP 結果以及附錄中的調節表。

And with that, I'll hand over to you, Bruce.

這樣，我就把任務交給你了，布魯斯。

Thanks, Kristin, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call today. The turbulent external environment continued in the second quarter, but we continued to navigate well and we delivered solid financial performance. In particular, we're pleased with the strong results we achieved around capital, liquidity and funding.

謝謝克里斯汀，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。第二季度外部環境持續動盪，但我們繼續保持良好態勢，並實現了穩健的財務業績。我們特別對我們在資本、流動性和融資方面取得的強勁成果感到高興。

Our CET1 ratio grew by 30 basis points to 10.3% in the quarter, and we were able to repurchase in excess of $250 million in stock. We grew spot deposits by 3% or $5.5 billion, and our spot loan-to-deposit ratio improved to 85%. Our Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings dropped by $7 billion to $5 billion, and contingent liquidity grew by 20% to $79 billion.

本季度我們的 CET1 比率增長了 30 個基點，達到 10.3%，並且我們能夠回購超過 2.5 億美元的股票。我們的現貨存款增長了 3%，即 55 億美元，現貨貸存比提高到 85%。我們的聯邦住房貸款銀行借款減少了 70 億美元至 50 億美元，或有流動資金增長了 20% 至 790 億美元。

For the quarter, we posted underlying earnings per share of $1.04 and ROTCE of 13.9%. NII was down 3%, reflecting higher funding costs, in line with our expectations. Noninterest income grew 4%, slightly less than expected, as Capital Markets saw a few deals pushed to the third quarter. Expenses were broadly stable, as expected, and credit costs continue to be manageable.

本季度，我們公佈的每股基本收益為 1.04 美元，ROTCE 為 13.9%。 NII 下降 3%，反映出融資成本上升，符合我們的預期。非利息收入增長 4%，略低於預期，因為資本市場看到一些交易被推遲到第三季度。正如預期，支出大體穩定，信貸成本繼續可控。

One of the highlights of the second quarter was the opportunity to secure a significant influx of talent largely from the First Republic platform to meaningfully augment our Citizens Private Bank and Wealth Management business. While expense investments will lead revenues in 2023, we project the business to be accretive in 2024 and significantly profitable in the medium term.

第二季度的亮點之一是有機會確保大量人才湧入，主要來自第一共和國平台，以有意義地擴大我們的公民私人銀行和財富管理業務。雖然費用投資將在 2023 年引領收入，但我們預計該業務將在 2024 年實現增值，並在中期實現顯著盈利。

In our presentation this morning, we will highlight this initiative in more detail. And we'll also review several other compelling initiatives that we believe will lead to strong medium-term outperformance. Execution of these initiatives continues to be strong.

在今天早上的演講中，我們將更詳細地強調這一舉措。我們還將審查其他幾項引人注目的舉措，我們相信這些舉措將帶來強勁的中期業績。這些舉措的執行依然強勁。

We're setting up a noncore runoff portfolio as a centerpiece of intensified balance sheet optimization efforts. We expect around $9 billion of loan runoff, largely in auto, by the end of 2025. This capacity will be utilized to fund more strategic loan portfolios, to pay down high-cost debt and to build cash and securities.

我們正在建立一個非核心徑流投資組合，作為加強資產負債表優化工作的核心。我們預計到 2025 年底，貸款徑流將達到約 90 億美元，主要用於汽車領域。這一能力將用於為更具戰略性的貸款組合提供資金、償還高成本債務以及建立現金和證券。

In parallel, the private bank will grow loans over this period by $9 billion, which will be funded by $11 billion of incremental deposits. The net benefit of all of this is a better deployment of capital, along with positive impact on earnings per share, ROTCE and liquidity. We've also included more detail on our CRE loan portfolio. Our General Office reserve is now at 8%. While we continue to see increases in criticized assets and charge-offs in this particular portfolio, we believe losses are manageable and readily absorbed by reserves and our strong capital position.

與此同時，私人銀行將在此期間增加貸款 90 億美元，其中資金將由 110 億美元的增量存款提供。所有這一切的淨收益是更好地配置資本，並對每股收益、ROTCE 和流動性產生積極影響。我們還提供了有關商業地產貸款組合的更多詳細信息。我們的總辦公室儲備金現在為 8%。雖然我們繼續看到這一特定投資組合中受批評的資產和沖銷增加，但我們相信損失是可控的，並且很容易被儲備和我們強大的資本狀況吸收。

Looking forward, we anticipate that the environment, while stabilizing, will continue to be challenging. Our net interest margin will decline again in Q3 given higher funding costs. We expect our terminal beta to reach 49% to 50% at year-end. Our fees should continue to grow sequentially, expenses will be well controlled, and credit should be broadly stable. We will further build our CET1 ratio while continuing to repurchase shares.

展望未來，我們預計環境雖然穩定，但仍將充滿挑戰。由於融資成本上升，我們的淨息差將在第三季度再次下降。我們預計年底 Beta 率將達到 49% 至 50%。我們的費用應該繼續環比增長，費用將會得到很好的控制，信貸應該大體穩定。我們將在繼續回購股票的同時進一步提高我們的CET1比率。

Overall, we're holding it okay on current period performance with mid-teens ROTCE in 2023 while making the investments to deliver a stronger franchise, attractive growth and returns, and a fortified balance sheet over the medium term. We continue to build a great bank, and we remain very excited about our future. Our capital strength and our attractive franchise position us to attract terrific talent and to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.

總體而言，我們對 2023 年 ROTCE 的當前業績表現持樂觀態度，同時進行投資以提供更強大的特許經營權、有吸引力的增長和回報，以及中期強化的資產負債表。我們繼續建設一家偉大的銀行，我們對未來仍然感到非常興奮。我們的資本實力和有吸引力的特許經營權使我們能夠吸引優秀的人才並抓住出現的機會。

With that, let me turn it over to John to take you through more of the financial details. John?

接下來，讓我將其交給約翰，讓他帶您了解更多財務細節。約翰？

Thanks, Bruce, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the headlines for the second quarter referencing Slide 5. For the second quarter, we generated underlying net income of $531 million and EPS of $1.04. Our underlying ROTCE for the quarter was 13.9%. Net interest income was down 3% linked quarter. And our margin was 3.17%, down 13 basis points with funding costs outpacing the increase in asset yields.

謝謝布魯斯，大家早上好。讓我從第二季度的頭條新聞開始，參考幻燈片 5。第二季度，我們的基本淨利潤為 5.31 億美元，每股收益為 1.04 美元。我們本季度的基本 ROTCE 為 13.9%。淨利息收入環比下降 3%。我們的利潤率為 3.17%，下降了 13 個基點，融資成本超過了資產收益率的增幅。

We delivered very strong deposit growth in the quarter, reflecting the strength of the franchise with spot deposits up 3% or $5.5 billion. Period-end loans and average loans were down 2% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the impact of our balance sheet optimization efforts, including our ongoing runoff of auto. These dynamics improved our period-end LDR to 85%, and our liquidity position remains very strong.

本季度我們的存款增長非常強勁，現貨存款增長了 3%，即 55 億美元，這反映了我們的業務實力。期末貸款和平均貸款環比下降 2%，反映了我們資產負債表優化工作（包括汽車業務持續縮減）的影響。這些動態將我們的期末貸存比提高至 85%，我們的流動性狀況仍然非常強勁。

We reduced FHLB borrowings by about $7 billion to approximately $5 billion outstanding at quarter end, and we increased our available liquidity by 19% to about $79 billion.

截至季度末，我們將 FHLB 借款減少了約 70 億美元，達到約 50 億美元，並將可用流動性增加了 19%，達到約 790 億美元。

Our credit mix and overall position remains solid. Total NCOs or 40 basis points are up 6 basis points linked quarter as expected, primarily reflecting higher charge-offs in CRE General Office. We recorded a provision for credit losses of $176 million and a reserve build of $24 million this quarter, increasing our ACL coverage to 1.52%, up from 1.47% at the end of the first quarter with the increase directed to the General Office portfolio.

我們的信貸組合和整體狀況依然穩固。總 NCO 或 40 個基點比預期的季度上升 6 個基點，主要反映了商業地產綜合辦公室沖銷的增加。本季度，我們記錄了 1.76 億美元的信貸損失撥備和 2,400 萬美元的準備金建設，將我們的 ACL 覆蓋率從第一季度末的 1.47% 提高到 1.52%，增加的金額直接用於辦公室投資組合。

We repurchased $256 million of common shares in the second quarter and delivered a strong CET1 ratio of 10.3%, up from 10% in the first quarter. And our tangible book value per share is down 2% linked quarter, reflecting AOCI impacts associated with higher rates.

我們在第二季度回購了 2.56 億美元的普通股，並實現了 10.3% 的強勁 CET1 比率，高於第一季度的 10%。我們的每股有形賬面價值環比下降了 2%，反映了與較高利率相關的 AOCI 影響。

On the next few slides, I'll provide further details related to second quarter results. On Slide 6, net interest income was down 3%, primarily reflecting a lower net interest margin, which was down 13 basis points to 3.17% with the increase in asset yields more than offset by higher funding costs given the competitive environment and migration from lower-cost categories. With Fed funds increasing 500 basis points since the end of 2021, our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta is 42% through the second quarter, which has been rising in response to the rate and competitive environment and is generally in the pack of peers.

在接下來的幾張幻燈片中，我將提供與第二季度業績相關的更多詳細信息。在幻燈片 6 中，淨利息收入下降了 3%，主要反映淨息差下降，淨息差下降 13 個基點至 3.17%，考慮到競爭環境和從較低水平遷移，資產收益率的增加被較高的融資成本所抵消。 - 成本類別。隨著聯邦基金自 2021 年底以來增加了 500 個基點，我們第二季度的累積計息存款貝塔值為 42%，該貝塔值隨著利率和競爭環境而不斷上升，總體處於同行領先地位。

Our asset sensitivity at the end of the second quarter is still approximately 1%, which is broadly stable with the prior quarter. Our received fixed cash flow swap position is similar to the prior quarter as we held off on adding further protection as rates continued to rise during the quarter.

二季度末我們的資產敏感度仍然在1%左右，與上季度基本穩定。我們收到的固定現金流掉期頭寸與上一季度相似，因為隨著本季度利率持續上升，我們推遲了增加進一步的保護。

Moving on to Slide 7. We posted solid fee performance in a challenging market environment. Fees were up 4% linked quarter with card fees showing a seasonally strong increase from higher transaction volumes and increases in wealth and mortgage banking fees. FX and derivatives revenue was modestly lower. Capital Markets fees were stable with market volatility through the quarter continuing to impact underwriting fees, largely offset by increased syndications and M&A advisory fees despite a few deals being pushed into the third quarter.

轉到幻燈片 7。我們在充滿挑戰的市場環境中公佈了穩健的費用表現。與季度相關的費用上漲了 4%，卡費顯示出由於交易量增加以及財富和抵押銀行費用的增加而出現季節性強勁增長。外彙和衍生品收入略有下降。資本市場費用保持穩定，整個季度的市場波動繼續影響承銷費用，儘管有一些交易被推遲到第三季度，但在很大程度上被銀團和併購諮詢費用的增加所抵消。

We continue to see good strength in our deal pipelines and are hopeful that deal flow picks up in the second half. Mortgage gains were slightly higher as production fees increased with market volumes, partially offset by lower margins and lower servicing fees.

我們繼續看到我們的交易渠道強勁，並希望下半年交易量有所回升。由於生產費隨著市場容量的增加而增加，抵押貸款收益略有上升，但部分被利潤率下降和服務費下降所抵消。

And finally, wealth fees were also up slightly, reflecting growth in AUM.

最後，財富費用也略有上升，反映了資產管理規模的增長。

On Slide 8, expenses were broadly stable linked quarter as seasonally lower salaries and employee benefits were offset by higher equipment and software costs as well as higher advertising and deposit insurance costs.

在幻燈片 8 中，季度支出基本穩定，因為季節性較低的工資和員工福利被較高的設備和軟件成本以及較高的廣告和存款保險成本所抵消。

On Slide 9, average and period-end loans were both down 2% linked quarter, reflecting balance sheet optimization actions in C&I as well as the impact of planned auto runoff. Education was lower given the rate environment, but this was offset by modest growth in mortgage from equity.

在幻燈片 9 中，平均貸款和期末貸款均環比下降 2%，反映了工商業的資產負債表優化行動以及計劃的汽車徑流的影響。鑑於利率環境，教育水平較低，但這被股權抵押貸款的溫和增長所抵消。

Commercial utilization is down a bit as clients look to deleverage given higher rates, and we saw less M&A financing activity in the face of an uncertain economic environment.

由於利率上升，客戶尋求去槓桿化，商業利用率略有下降，而且在經濟環境不確定的情況下，我們看到併購融資活動減少。

On Slide 10, period-end deposits were up $5.5 billion or 3% linked quarter with growth led by consumer of $3 billion and commercial of $2 billion. Our interest-bearing deposit costs were up 47 basis points, which translates to a 101% sequential beta and a 42% cumulative beta.

在幻燈片 10 中，期末存款增加了 55 億美元，環比增長 3%，其中消費者存款增長 30 億美元，商業存款增長 20 億美元。我們的計息存款成本上升了 47 個基點，相當於 101% 的連續貝塔係數和 42% 的累積貝塔係數。

Strong deposit flows and the very successful auto loan collateralized borrowing program initiated during the quarter contributed to reducing FHLB levels by about $7 billion. Given our BSO objectives, we grew deposits, which drove a favorable mix shift away from wholesale funding. As a result, our total cost of funds was relatively well behaved, up 38 basis points.

強勁的存款流動和本季度啟動的非常成功的汽車貸款抵押借款計劃導致 FHLB 水平減少了約 70 億美元。鑑於我們的 BSO 目標，我們增加了存款，這推動了批發融資的有利組合轉變。因此，我們的總資金成本表現相對良好，上升了 38 個基點。

Next, I'll move to Slide 11 to highlight the strength of our deposit franchise. With 67% of our deposits skewed towards consumer and highly diversified across product mix and channels, we are able to efficiently and cost effectively manage our deposits in a rising rate environment. We increased the portion of our insured and secured deposits from 68% to 70% linked quarter. And when combined with our available liquidity of $79 billion, our available liquidity as a percentage of uninsured deposits increased to about 150% from around 120% in the first quarter.

接下來，我將轉到幻燈片 11 來強調我們存款業務的優勢。由於我們 67% 的存款偏向消費者，且產品組合和渠道高度多元化，因此我們能夠在利率上升的環境下高效且具有成本效益地管理我們的存款。我們將保險和擔保存款的比例從季度關聯的 68% 增加到 70%。加上我們 790 億美元的可用流動性，我們的可用流動性佔未保險存款的百分比從第一季度的 120% 左右增加到 150% 左右。

As rates throws another 25 basis points in the second quarter, we saw continued migration of lower-cost deposits to higher-yielding categories primarily in commercial with noninterest-bearing now representing about 23% of the book. This is back to prepandemic levels and should stabilize from here.

隨著第二季度利率再上調 25 個基點，我們看到成本較低的存款繼續向收益較高的類別遷移，主要是商業存款，無息存款目前約佔存款總額的 23%。這已經回到了大流行前的水平，並且應該從此穩定下來。

Moving on to Slide 12. We saw good credit results in retail again this quarter and higher charge-offs in commercial. Net charge-offs were 40 basis points, up 6 basis points linked quarter, which reflects an increase in the General Office segment of commercial real estate, partly offset by a slight improvement in retail primarily due to the strength in used car values. Nonperforming loans are 79 basis points of total loans, up 15 basis points from the first quarter, reflecting an increase in General Office, which tends to be lumpy.

轉到幻燈片 12。本季度我們再次看到零售業的良好信貸業績以及商業業的沖銷額。淨沖銷額為 40 個基點，環比上升 6 個基點，反映了商業房地產綜合辦公部門的增長，但部分被零售業因二手車價值強勁而略有改善所抵消。不良貸款佔貸款總額的79個基點，較一季度上升15個基點，反映出辦公樓的增長，而辦公樓往往呈波動性。

It's also worth noting that overall delinquencies were lower sequentially with retail and commercial both improving slightly. Retail delinquencies continue to remain favorable to historical levels.

還值得注意的是，總體拖欠率環比下降，零售和商業都略有改善。零售拖欠率繼續保持在歷史水平。

Turning to Slide 13. I'll walk through the drivers of the allowance this quarter. We increased our allowance by $24 million, which includes a $41 million increase in CRE General Office even after covering charge-offs of $56 million. Our overall coverage ratio stands at 1.52%, which is a 5 basis point increase in the second quarter.

轉向幻燈片 13。我將介紹本季度津貼的驅動因素。我們的津貼增加了 2,400 萬美元，其中包括在沖銷 5,600 萬美元之後，CRE 辦公廳增加了 4,100 萬美元。我們的整體覆蓋率為1.52%，比第二季度提高了5個基點。

The runoff of the noncore portfolio, primarily auto, facilitated the reallocation of reserves to CRE. The reserve coverage in General Office was increased to a strong 8%.

非核心投資組合（主要是汽車投資）的流失促進了儲備金重新分配給商業地產。辦公廳的準備金覆蓋率提高至8%。

On Slide 14, you'll see some of the key assumptions driving the General Office reserve coverage level, which we feel represent a fairly adverse scenario that is much worse than we've seen in historical downturns. As mentioned, we built our reserve for the General Office portfolio to $313 million this quarter, which represents coverage of 8%. In addition to running a number of stress scenarios across the general office portfolio, we continuously perform a detailed loan-level analysis that takes into account property-specific details, such as location, building quality, operating performance and maturity.

在幻燈片 14 上，您將看到推動辦公廳準備金覆蓋水平的一些關鍵假設，我們認為這代表了一種相當不利的情況，比我們在歷史低迷時期看到的情況要糟糕得多。如前所述，本季度我們將辦公廳投資組合的儲備金增至 3.13 億美元，覆蓋率達到 8%。除了在一般辦公樓投資組合中運行多個壓力情景外，我們還不斷進行詳細的貸款水平分析，其中考慮了特定於物業的細節，例如位置、建築質量、運營績效和成熟度。

We have a very experienced CRE team who are focused on managing the portfolio on a loan-by-loan basis and engaging in ongoing discussions with sponsors to work through the property- and borrower-specific elements to derisk the portfolio and ultimately minimize losses. Our reserves reflect this detailed view of the portfolio as well as the key macro factors we set out on the page.

我們擁有一支經驗豐富的 CRE 團隊，他們專注於逐筆貸款地管理投資組合，並與讚助商進行持續討論，以解決特定於財產和借款人的要素，以降低投資組合的風險，並最終最大限度地減少損失。我們的儲備反映了投資組合的詳細視圖以及我們在頁面上列出的關鍵宏觀因素。

The property value, default rate and loss severity assumptions we are using to set the reserve are adequate for the risks we currently see and are significantly more conservative than what we've seen in previous CRE downturns. It's worth noting that the financial impact of any further deterioration beyond what we expect would be very manageable given our strong reserve and capital position.

我們用來設定準備金的財產價值、違約率和損失嚴重程度假設足以應對我們目前看到的風險，並且比我們在之前的商業地產低迷時期看到的要保守得多。值得注意的是，鑑於我們強大的儲備和資本狀況，任何超出我們預期的進一步惡化所造成的財務影響都是非常可控的。

On the following slide, 15, there are some additional disclosures we are providing this quarter to give more detail on the type and location of the general office portfolio. You can see, of the $3.9 billion general office portfolio, 94% is Class A or B with the majority in suburban areas, which seem to be performing better than central business districts.

在下面的幻燈片 15 中，我們在本季度提供了一些額外的披露信息，以提供有關一般辦公室投資組合的類型和位置的更多詳細信息。可以看到，在39億美元的普通寫字樓組合中，94%是A級或B級寫字樓，其中大部分位於郊區，這些地區的表現似乎比中央商務區更好。

On the bottom left-hand side of the page, it highlights that the portfolio is quite diversified across geographies as well as the top 10 MSAs listed on the bottom right-hand side. Broadly for New York MSA, we are starting to see return-to-office trends picking up, and more than 80% of the portfolio is outside of Manhattan, where property dynamics tend to be more favorable. Washington, D.C. is 100% Class A and B and 95% suburban.

頁面左下角突出顯示該投資組合在各個地區都相當多元化，並且右下角列出了排名前 10 位的 MSA。總體而言，對於紐約 MSA 來說，我們開始看到重返辦公室的趨勢有所回升，並且超過 80% 的投資組合位於曼哈頓以外的地區，那裡的房地產動態往往更為有利。華盛頓特區 100% 為 A 級和 B 級，95% 為郊區。

Moving to Slide 16. We maintained excellent balance sheet strength. Our CET1 ratio increased to 10.3% as we look to add capital given the uncertain macro and regulatory environment. We returned a total of $461 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

轉到幻燈片 16。我們保持了出色的資產負債表實力。鑑於不確定的宏觀和監管環境，我們希望增加資本，因此我們的 CET1 比率增加至 10.3%。我們通過股票回購和股息總共向股東返還了 4.61 億美元。

Turning to Slide 17. You'll see that our CET1 ratio is among the highest in our regional bank peer group. This strong capital level reflects a relatively conservative approach since the IPO in maintaining robust capital levels. If you incorporate the removal of AOCI opt-out, our adjusted CET1 ratio would be 8.5%, and we also expect that this would place us near the top of our peer group again this quarter. We expect to maintain very strong capital levels going forward with the ability to generate roughly 20 basis points of CET1 ratio post dividend each quarter in 2H '23 before share buybacks.

轉向幻燈片 17。您會發現我們的 CET1 比率在區域銀行同行中名列前茅。這種強勁的資本水平反映了自首次公開募股以來在維持強勁資本水平方面相對保守的做法。如果考慮取消 AOCI 選擇退出，我們調整後的 CET1 比率將為 8.5%，我們還預計這將使我們在本季度再次接近同行的領先地位。我們預計未來將保持非常強勁的資本水平，並能夠在 2023 年 2 月股票回購前每個季度的股息後產生大約 20 個基點的 CET1 比率。

So as you see, we've been focused for a while on playing really strong defense with a focus on capital, liquidity, funding and maintaining a prudent credit risk appetite. And that's been job one even long before the turmoil we saw in the first quarter. While we also recognize the need to continue to play offense, we need to be selective, investing in initiatives that will grow the franchise where we have a right to win.

正如你所看到的，一段時間以來，我們一直專注於採取真正強有力的防禦措施，重點關注資本、流動性、融資和保持審慎的信用風險偏好。早在我們看到第一季度的動蕩之前，這就是首要任務。雖然我們也認識到需要繼續進攻，但我們需要有選擇性地投資於那些能夠擴大我們有權利獲勝的球隊的舉措。

Over the next few slides, I'll spotlight a few of the exciting things we are doing to make sure that we can deliver growth and strong returns for our shareholders. First, on Slides 19 and 20, we were excited to announce a few weeks back that we have hired about 50 senior private bankers and 100 related support professionals who were with First Republic. As many of you know, for a number of years, we've had an interest in growing our wealth business both organically and inorganically. So we made a number of investments on the organic side, hiring financial advisers and converting that business from a transactional business to a very customer-centric financial planning approach. That's been a slow and steady build over the years.

在接下來的幾張幻燈片中，我將重點介紹我們正在做的一些令人興奮的事情，以確保我們能夠為股東帶來增長和豐厚的回報。首先，在幻燈片 19 和 20 上，我們很高興地在幾週前宣布，我們已經聘請了 First Republic 的大約 50 名高級私人銀行家和 100 名相關支持專業人員。正如你們許多人所知，多年來，我們一直有興趣有機和無機地發展我們的財富業務。因此，我們在有機方面進行了大量投資，聘請財務顧問，並將該業務從交易業務轉變為非常以客戶為中心的財務規劃方法。多年來，這是一個緩慢而穩定的建設。

And then we supplemented that with the Clarfeld acquisition a couple of years ago, and that's gone incredibly well. So with our customer-centric culture, our financial strength and the full range of products and services we offer, we were the perfect fit for these bankers. We really admire their approach to delivering the bank to their customers in a unique way with white-glove service. This is really a coast-to-coast team with a presence in some of our key markets like New York, Boston and places where we'd like to do more, like Florida and California. In fact, we think the overlap with JMP in San Francisco was extremely complementary.

然後我們在幾年前收購了 Clarfeld，對此進行了補充，進展非常順利。因此，憑藉我們以客戶為中心的文化、我們的財務實力以及我們提供的全方位產品和服務，我們非常適合這些銀行家。我們非常欽佩他們以獨特的方式為客戶提供白手套服務的銀行方式。這確實是一支橫跨東西海岸的團隊，在我們的一些主要市場（如紐約、波士頓）以及我們希望開展更多業務的地方（如佛羅里達和加利福尼亞）開展業務。事實上，我們認為與舊金山 JMP 的重疊是極其互補的。

These bankers serve the types of customers we are seeking to attract to the bank, high- and ultra-high net worth individuals and families often with strong connections to middle-market companies with a particular focus on private equity and venture capital firms serving the innovation economy.

這些銀行家服務於我們希望吸引到銀行的客戶類型，即高淨值和超高淨值個人和家庭，通常與中型市場公司有密切的聯繫，特別關注服務於創新的私募股權和風險投資公司經濟。

We have a great deal of work ahead of us to integrate these teams and to ensure that they are positioned to deliver the bank to their clients. We plan to open a few private banking centers in key geographies and build appropriate scale in our wealth business with Clarfeld as the centerpiece of that effort. We think this is going to be extremely attractive from a financial perspective. These teams and their staff, about 150 people in total, onboarded late in the second quarter with revenue beginning to ramp in the fourth quarter.

我們還有大量工作需要整合這些團隊，並確保他們能夠將銀行交付給客戶。我們計劃在關鍵地區開設一些私人銀行中心，並以克拉菲爾德為核心，在我們的財富業務中建立適當的規模。我們認為，從財務角度來看，這將極具吸引力。這些團隊及其員工總共約 150 人，於第二季度末入職，收入在第四季度開始增長。

Financial impact for the second half will be $0.08 to $0.10 of EPS plus an initial notable cost of about $0.03 for 2023.

下半年的財務影響將為 EPS 0.08 至 0.10 美元，加上 2023 年初始顯著成本約 0.03 美元。

These bankers have hit the ground running and are out working to build their book of business, and we expect the effort to break even around the middle of 2024. By 2025, we expect EPS accretion of roughly 5% with 2025 year-end projections of about $9 billion in loans, $11 billion of deposits and $10 billion of assets under management. So overall, a very exciting advance for us.

這些銀行家已經開始行動，並正在努力建立自己的業務，我們預計這一努力將在 2024 年中期左右實現收支平衡。到 2025 年，我們預計每股收益將增長約 5%，到 2025 年年底預測為管理著約 90 億美元的貸款、110 億美元的存款和 100 億美元的資產。總的來說，這對我們來說是一個非常令人興奮的進步。

Now let's go to Slide 21, and I'll walk you through how we'll be managing our balance sheet over the next few years. Since the IPO, we've prudently grown our balance sheet while managing the mix of assets and funding with an eye towards maximizing returns. With the increase in rates since the end of 2021, plus the advent of quantitative tightening and more recently, the heightened competition for deposits, we are entering the next stage of the journey with a plan to focus on attractive relationship lending while lowering our LDR, which will improve our liquidity profile and benefit returns.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 21，我將向您介紹我們在未來幾年將如何管理資產負債表。自首次公開募股以來，我們一直謹慎地擴大資產負債表，同時管理資產和資金組合，著眼於回報最大化。隨著 2021 年底以來利率的上漲，加上量化緊縮的出現以及最近存款競爭的加劇，我們正在進入下一階段，計劃專注於有吸引力的關係貸款，同時降低我們的貸存比，這將改善我們的流動性狀況和效益回報。

In order to make this effort clear and show the benefits we expect, we've established a $14 billion noncore portfolio, which is comprised of our $10 billion shorter-duration, indirect auto portfolio and lower relationship-purchased customer loans -- consumer loans. This portfolio will run down fairly quickly with about $9 billion of runoff expected by the end of 2025.

為了明確這一努力並展示我們預期的收益，我們建立了 140 億美元的非核心投資組合，其中包括 100 億美元的短期間接汽車投資組合和較低關係購買的客戶貸款（消費貸款）。該投資組合將很快耗盡，預計到 2025 年底將流失約 90 億美元。

Moving to Slides 22 and 23, you'll see that as the noncore loan portfolio runs down, this allows us to pay down higher-cost funding and redeploy capital into more strategic lending and their investment portfolio. We will also be growing relationship-based lending through the private bank and raising deposits to self-fund that growth.

轉到幻燈片 22 和 23，您會看到，隨著非核心貸款組合的減少，這使我們能夠償還成本較高的融資，並將資本重新部署到更具戰略性的貸款及其投資組合中。我們還將通過私人銀行增加基於關係的貸款，並籌集存款來為這一增長提供自籌資金。

Despite the size of the runoff portfolio, we expect to see modest loan growth in 2024 picking up in 2025 driven by opportunities across retail and C&I as well as our private bank effort. The net result of these actions is an improved liquidity profile with a better loan and funding mix and higher returns.

儘管徑流投資組合規模龐大，但我們預計，在零售和商業與工業領域的機遇以及我們私人銀行的努力的推動下，2024 年的貸款增長將在 2025 年有所回升。這些行動的最終結果是改善了流動性狀況，提供了更好的貸款和融資組合以及更高的回報。

Next, on Slide 24, a quick update on our entry into New York Metro, where some really exciting things are happening. With the branch conversions behind us, we are full steam ahead, working to serve our customers and capitalize on opportunities. We continue to be encouraged by our early success. We've seen strong sales in the branches as we leverage our full customer service capabilities to drive some of the highest customer acquisition and sales rates in our network. Most importantly, we've seen a steady improvement in our Net Promoter Scores.

接下來，在幻燈片 24 上，快速更新我們進入紐約地鐵的情況，那裡正在發生一些非常令人興奮的事情。隨著分行轉型的完成，我們將全力以赴，努力為客戶提供服務並抓住機遇。我們繼續為我們早期的成功所鼓舞。由於我們利用全面的客戶服務能力來推動我們網絡中一些最高的客戶獲取和銷售率，因此我們在分支機構中看到了強勁的銷售業績。最重要的是，我們的淨推薦值穩步提高。

On the Commercial Banking side, we've got a strong new leadership team in place with local talent joining from larger firms, and we are seeing some early success leveraging our new visibility to build pipelines with middle-market firms. And we are looking forward to what we can do with our new private banking capabilities in the market.

在商業銀行方面，我們已經組建了一支強大的新領導團隊，其中有來自大型公司的本地人才加入，並且我們看到了一些早期成功，利用我們的新知名度與中型市場公司建立管道。我們期待著我們能夠利用我們新的私人銀行業務能力在市場上做些什麼。

On Slide 25, we have a great opportunity to build on Citizens Access, our national digital platform, that has been focused on deposits for the last few years. We've moved to a modern, fully cloud-based core platform, and we'll try to add checking capabilities later this year. Down the road, we plan to converge our legacy core system with this modern platform. We are confident that a single integrated platform will be more cost-efficient and flexible in meeting our clients' needs. We aim for this to be a complete digital bank experience to serve customers nationwide with a focus on the young, mass-affluent market segment.

在幻燈片 25 上，我們有一個很好的機會來構建我們的國家數字平台 Citizens Access，該平台在過去幾年中一直專注於存款。我們已經轉向現代的、完全基於雲的核心平台，並且我們將在今年晚些時候嘗試添加檢查功能。今後，我們計劃將我們的遺留核心系統與這個現代平台融合。我們相信，單一集成平台將更具成本效益且更靈活地滿足客戶的需求。我們的目標是打造完整的數字銀行體驗，為全國客戶提供服務，重點關注年輕、大眾富裕的細分市場。

And on the right side of the page is Citizens Pay, where we have been very innovative in creating distinctive ways to serve customers. Citizen Pay has been the top customer acquisition engine for the bank with very high promoter scores, and it has been a great performer from a credit perspective. We have had some fantastic partners on the platform for a while, such as Apple, Microsoft, Best Buy, BJ's and Vivint. And we are always very excited to welcome new partners like Peloton, Trek, The Tile Shop and Wisetack to the platform.

頁面右側是 Citizens Pay，我們非常創新地創造了獨特的方式來服務客戶。 Citizen Pay 一直是該銀行的頂級客戶獲取引擎，擁有非常高的推薦分數，從信用角度來看，它的表現也非常出色。一段時間以來，我們在該平台上擁有一些出色的合作夥伴，例如蘋果、微軟、百思買、BJ's 和 Vivint。我們始終非常高興地歡迎 Peloton、Trek、The Tile Shop 和 Wisetack 等新合作夥伴加入該平台。

On Slide 26, I'll highlight how we are positioned to support the significant growth in private capital. Over the last several years, private capital fundraising has led to record deal formation, M&A activity and substantial fees. Deal activity has been relatively muted recently, and many sponsors have not deployed meaningful amounts of capital, so there is a tremendous amount of pent-up demand for M&A and capital markets activity.

在幻燈片 26 上，我將重點介紹我們如何支持私人資本的顯著增長。在過去的幾年裡，私人資本融資導致交易形成、併購活動和巨額費用創下歷史新高。最近的交易活動相對平靜，許多發起人沒有部署大量資金，因此對併購和資本市場活動存在大量被壓抑的需求。

We have been executing a consistent strategy to serve the sponsor community with distinctive capabilities for the last 10 years, and we've done a great job moving up to the top of sponsor league tables, particularly in the middle market.

過去 10 年來，我們一直執行一致的戰略，以獨特的能力為贊助商群體提供服務，並且我們在躋身贊助商排名榜前列方面做得非常出色，尤其是在中端市場。

We have made significant investments in talent and capabilities, including 5 advisory acquisitions since 2017, and our new private bankers significantly expand our sponsor relationships and capabilities. Our success supporting private capital has been a large part of our strong capital markets performance over the last few years, and we are poised to capitalize on the next wave of sponsor activity as the path of the economy becomes clearer.

我們在人才和能力方面進行了大量投資，包括自 2017 年以來的 5 次諮詢收購，我們新的私人銀行家顯著擴大了我們的讚助商關係和能力。我們對私人資本的成功支持是我們過去幾年強勁的資本市場表現的重要組成部分，隨著經濟道路變得更加清晰，我們準備利用下一波贊助活動。

Let's move to Slide 27 for an update on our TOP program. Our latest TOP 8 program is well underway and progressing well. Given the external environment, we have decided to augment the program to protect returns as well as ensure that we can continue to make the important investments in our business to drive future performance. We have increased our targeted benefit by $15 million to [$115 million] by accelerating similar some other efforts and to further rationalize our branch network and reduce procurement costs.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 27，了解 TOP 計劃的最新情況。我們最新的 TOP 8 計劃正在順利進行，進展順利。鑑於外部環境，我們決定擴大該計劃以保護回報，並確保我們能夠繼續對業務進行重要投資以推動未來業績。通過加快其他類似的努力，並進一步合理化我們的分支機構網絡並降低採購成本，我們將目標效益提高了 1500 萬美元，達到 [1.15 億美元]。

We have also begun planning for our TOP 9 program, looking for efficiency opportunities driven by further automation and the use of AI to better serve our customers. We are also looking at ways to simplify our organization and find even more savings in procurement. Continuous improvement is part of our DNA, and I'm very confident that we'll continue to deliver these benefits to the bank.

我們還開始規劃 TOP 9 計劃，尋找由進一步自動化和人工智能的使用驅動的效率機會，以更好地為我們的客戶服務。我們還在尋找簡化組織並進一步節省採購成本的方法。持續改進是我們 DNA 的一部分，我非常有信心我們將繼續為銀行帶來這些好處。

Moving to Slide 28. I'll walk through the outlook for the second quarter of Citizens, which excludes the impact of the private bank, and I will also provide some comments for the full year. The outlook takes into account another rate increase followed by Fed on hold for the remainder of this year.

轉向幻燈片 28。我將介紹 Citizens 第二季度的前景，其中排除了私人銀行的影響，我還將提供一些全年的評論。該前景考慮到美聯儲將在今年剩餘時間裡再次加息，然後按兵不動。

For the third quarter, we expect NII to decrease about 4%, noninterest income to be up by approximately 3%. Noninterest expense should be broadly stable. Net charge-offs are expected to be broadly stable to up slightly. Our CET1 is expected to rise modestly from 10.3% with additional share repurchases planned, which will depend upon our ongoing assessment of the external environment.

對於第三季度，我們預計NII將下降約4%，非利息收入將增長約3%。非利息支出應大致穩定。預計淨沖銷將大致穩定至小幅上升。我們的 CET1 預計將從 10.3% 溫和上升，併計劃進行額外的股票回購，這將取決於我們對外部環境的持續評估。

Relating to the full year, our liquidity position is quite strong. And given the BSO actions I discussed earlier, we will continue to build on this, targeting an LDR of low- to mid-80s by the end of the year, positioning us well for anticipated regulatory changes. Worth noting, we are already -- we already are fully LCR-compliant with Category 3 bank requirements.

就全年而言，我們的流動性狀況相當強勁。鑑於我之前討論的 BSO 行動，我們將繼續在此基礎上發展，目標是到年底將 LDR 降至 80 左右，為預期的監管變化做好準備。值得注意的是，我們已經完全符合 LCR 並符合第 3 類銀行的要求。

Based on the forward curve, we are expecting a terminal interest-bearing deposit beta of 49% to 50%. Our net interest margin should begin to stabilize in Q4 as the Fed is expected to reach the end of the rate hike cycle. We are off to a great start in building out the private bank, and we expect the EPS impact of this to be $0.06 in the third quarter and $0.02 to $0.04 in the fourth quarter, but we really think of this as a capital investment.

根據遠期曲線，我們預計終期計息存款貝塔值為 49% 至 50%。由於美聯儲預計將結束加息週期，我們的淨息差應在第四季度開始穩定。我們在建設私人銀行方面有了一個良好的開端，我們預計第三季度的每股收益影響為 0.06 美元，第四季度為 0.02 至 0.04 美元，但我們確實認為這是一項資本投資。

To wrap up, our results were solid for the quarter as we continue to navigate a turbulent external environment. We are focused on positioning the company with a strong capital, liquidity and funding position, which will serve us well as we continue to navigate a challenging environment ahead. Our balance sheet strength also positions us very well to focus on our strategic priorities to continue to strengthen the franchise for the future and deliver attractive returns.

總而言之，隨著我們繼續應對動蕩的外部環境，我們本季度的業績表現穩健。我們專注於為公司提供強大的資本、流動性和資金狀況，這將有助於我們繼續應對未來充滿挑戰的環境。我們的資產負債表實力也使我們能夠很好地專注於我們的戰略重點，以繼續加強未​​來的特許經營權並提供有吸引力的回報。

With that, I'll hand back over to Bruce.

這樣，我就把任務交還給布魯斯。

Okay. Thanks, John. Alan, let's open it up for some Q&A.

好的。謝謝，約翰。艾倫，讓我們開始一些問答。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question will come from Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題將由 Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler 提出。

I guess first question is just on the sort of accretion to the margin from the balance sheet optimization. Do you have a sense for what sort of a steady-state margin from Citizens might look like after that is completed? I guess it doesn't necessarily have to be a specific number, but just in your view, how powerful is that accretion from these activities? And I appreciate the -- sort of the backdrop of the 4.2% yield versus the 5.5% funding cost.

我想第一個問題只是資產負債表優化帶來的利潤增加。您是否知道完成後公民的穩態利潤會是什麼樣子？我想不一定是一個具體的數字，但在你看來，這些活動的增加有多大？我很欣賞 4.2% 的收益率與 5.5% 的融資成本的背景。

Yes. I'll go ahead and start off, Scott. Thanks for the question. I mean, I think broadly, we're seeing the impact of the rate environment on our net interest margin. We're managing it quite well as the Fed is continuing on its hiking cycle. And as you get into the end of the year, taking into consideration all of the balance sheet optimization activities, we see NIM flattening out and kind of holding in around 3% or so as you get to the end of the year.

是的。我要開始了，斯科特。謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，我認為從廣義上講，我們正在看到利率環境對我們的淨息差的影響。隨著美聯儲繼續其加息週期，我們管理得很好。當你進入年底時，考慮到所有資產負債表優化活動，我們看到淨息差趨於平緩，並在年底時保持在 3% 左右。

The tailwinds from balance sheet optimization are meaningful and will continue to build into '24. And so those are the big drivers there. I think that also contributing to that NIM stability would be the fact that we think that balance sheet migration is starting to stabilize. And also, you can't ignore the fact that the private bank itself, as you get out into '24, will start to deliver accretive NIM. So we're feeling good about the profile after we get through this last hike from the Fed here in July, watching that NIM starts to stabilize as you get into the end of the year.

資產負債表優化帶來的積極影響是有意義的，並將持續到 2024 年。這些是那裡的主要驅動因素。我認為，我們認為資產負債表遷移正在開始穩定，這一事實也有助於淨息差的穩定。而且，你不能忽視這樣一個事實：進入 24 世紀，私人銀行本身將開始提供不斷增加的淨息差。因此，在經歷了 7 月份美聯儲最後一次加息之後，我們對形勢感覺良好，並看到隨著年底淨息差開始趨於穩定。

Okay. Perfect. And then is it possible to put sort of a finer point on the, I guess, 8% to 10% -- pardon me, $0.08 to $0.10 of cumulative expected EPS drag from the private bank initiative? I certainly appreciate the sort of the loan and deposit in asset management -- or assets under management outlooks. But maybe any broad sense for dollar value of expected revenues and expenses as we look into the second half?

好的。完美的。然後，是否有可能對私人銀行舉措造成的累計預期每股收益拖累 8% 到 10%（請原諒我） 0.08 美元到 0.10 美元進行更詳細的闡述？我當然很欣賞資產管理中的貸款和存款——或者資產管理前景。但當我們展望下半年時，預期收入和支出的美元價值可能有任何廣泛的意義嗎？

Yes. I mean it's a little bit front-end loaded as you -- as the expenses will come in and drive probably more in the neighborhood of $0.06 of that $0.08 to $0.10 happening in the third quarter with $0.02 to $0.04 really into the fourth quarter. And it's primarily expenses in the neighborhood of $40 million or so as you get into the 3Q and 4Q. And -- but the loan book starts to build later this quarter and into 4Q. So that gives you the front end of that $0.08 to $0.10 into 3Q.

是的。我的意思是，它的前端負載有點像你一樣 - 因為費用將會增加，並可能會在第三季度產生 0.08 至 0.10 美元的 0.06 美元左右，而第四季度則真正產生 0.02 至 0.04 美元。當你進入第三季度和第四季度時，這主要是大約 4000 萬美元左右的支出。而且——但貸款賬簿在本季度末開始增加，並持續到第四季度。這樣您就可以在第三季度獲得 0.08 至 0.10 美元的前端收益。

The one thing I would say to that, Scott, it's Bruce, is this is a very sound approach to scaling up the wealth business. We've been looking for acquisition ideas, and it's been very expensive with very long tangible book value earn-backs many times would be over 5 years, which is beyond our appetite. So to actually do this in a kind of de novo buildup basis, you incur some capital expense in the short run, but it's almost the same as if you kind of equate it to an outlay that ultimately start to generate revenues.

斯科特，我是布魯斯，我要說的一件事是，這是擴大財富業務的一種非常合理的方法。我們一直在尋找收購的想法，而且收購的想法非常昂貴，而且有形賬面價值的回酬期很長，很多時候會超過 5 年，這超出了我們的胃口。因此，要在某種從頭積累的基礎上實際做到這一點，您會在短期內產生一些資本支出，但這幾乎與您將其等同於最終開始產生收入的支出相同。

And the nice thing about this is that it's accretive already in the second year, and the kind of earn-back on this thing is under 2 years. So we look at it really less as a driver of how does it affect the near-term EPS. But look, there's a capital outlay, which we burned some expense dollars to get it off the ground. And then all of a sudden, it's making us money. And it really ramps very nicely and can achieve something like a 5% accretion in 2025, which is kind of within 2.5 years in the second year of doing a deal.

這樣做的好處是，它在第​​二年就已經開始增值，而且這種東西的盈利回報不到兩年。因此，我們實際上較少將其視為其如何影響近期每股收益的驅動因素。但是，你看，有一項資本支出，我們花費了一些費用才得以啟動。然後突然之間，它就為我們賺錢了。它的增長確實非常好，可以在 2025 年實現 5% 的增長，相當於交易後第二年的 2.5 年內。

If you compare that to some of the other transactions that we've done, including the bank acquisitions, it's pretty darn powerful. So very excited about this opportunity.

如果你將其與我們完成的其他一些交易（包括銀行收購）進行比較，你會發現它的威力非常強大。對這個機會非常興奮。

Your next question will come from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

您的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的埃里卡·納賈里安 (Erika Najarian)。

John, I was just wondering if you could help us with lots of the moving pieces that's sort of unfurling in front of us. So -- just I guess the first question is, you noted stability in the 3% -- at 3% level. Does that mean that fourth quarter 2024 will be at about the third quarter level? I'm just wondering sort of how those dynamics play out in terms of what you expect for how the balance sheet trends for the rest of the year. Or will sort of the runoff continue to pressure it at that level? And what is that -- what does that fourth quarter NII about look like from a range perspective?

約翰，我只是想知道你是否可以幫助我們解決擺在我們面前的許多令人感動的事情。所以——我想第一個問題是，你注意到 3% 的穩定性——在 3% 的水平上。這是否意味著 2024 年第四季度將達到第三季度的水平？我只是想知道這些動態如何根據您對今年剩餘時間資產負債表趨勢的預期而發揮作用。或者徑流會繼續在這個水平上施加壓力嗎？那是什麼——從範圍的角度來看，第四季度的 NII 是什麼樣的？

Yes. I mean, I think from a NIM standpoint, you're talking about '23, just confirming, Erika, if that's...

是的。我的意思是，我認為從 NIM 的角度來看，你正在談論 '23，只是確認，Erika，如果那是......

'23. I'm building off of '24, John.

'23。我正在 24 歲的基礎上繼續發展，約翰。

Yes, no, I know, I referenced '24. But the answer is actually a little bit similar. But what we do see is after the Fed hikes here in July and that -- the impact of that get -- burns in, in the third quarter that we do see NIM flattening out there between 3Q and 4Q, having a more flat profile as you get into the end of the year around 3%. So maybe a touch higher in 3Q net interest margin but seeing that profile begin to flatten out.

是的，不，我知道，我提到了“24”。但答案其實有一點相似。但我們確實看到的是，在美聯儲 7 月加息之後，這種影響在第三季度逐漸顯現，我們確實看到淨息差在第三季度和第四季度之間趨於平緩，表現更加平穩。到年底你會達到3%左右。因此，第三季度淨息差可能略有上升，但看到這一狀況開始趨於平緩。

And I think the key drivers of that -- the pieces and parts, as I mentioned, we're starting to see a deceleration in deposit migration -- in negative deposit migration. So that's a good early green shoot. That's consistent with the fact that our DDA levels are basically where we were back to prepandemic. And so that ends up being an expected landing zone as you get into the end of the year. So we'll see that flattening out.

我認為其關鍵驅動因素——正如我所提到的，我們開始看到存款遷移的減速——負存款遷移。所以這是一個良好的早期萌芽。這與我們的 DDA 水平基本上回到了大流行前的水平這一事實是一致的。因此，當你進入年底時，這最終將成為預期的著陸區。所以我們會看到這種情況趨於平緩。

You'll see the tailwinds from the runoff book start to kick in, the reallocation of that capital and liquidity into relationship lending and the ability to pay down some higher-cost funding as you get into the end of the year. And so that starts to bolster net interest margin, which we do think carries into '24. And we think that there are a number of positive developments in '24 that would allow us to hold that NIM out into even beyond the fourth quarter.

你會看到決選書的順風車開始發揮作用，資本和流動性重新分配到關係貸款中，並且在年底時有能力償還一些成本較高的資金。因此，這開始提振淨息差，我們確實認為這種情況會延續到 2024 年。我們認為 24 年出現了許多積極的進展，這將使我們能夠將淨息差維持到第四季度之後。

Yes. And I would comment, Erika, that this was a really important quarter for us to kind of get the deposit level where we wanted to get the Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings lower and really take a big step in lowering the LDR. And so we paid up a little bit to achieve that. And the impact of that full quarter effect -- affects the third quarter guide.

是的。埃里卡，我要評論的是，對於我們來說，這是一個非常重要的季度，我們希望能夠降低聯邦住房貸款銀行的借款水平，並在降低貸存比方面真正邁出一大步。因此我們付出了一些代價來實現這一目標。整個季度效應的影響 - 影響第三季度的指南。

But I think, at this point, we feel that we don't need to continue to really aggressively grow deposits. We can have a more stable deposit profile, which as John indicated, less migration from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing. And so there won't be kind of a full order impact of an aggressive plan that affects Q4 from Q3 because we'll be kind of looking at a more stable profile in Q3.

但我認為，在這一點上，我們認為我們不需要繼續真正積極地增加存款。我們可以擁有更穩定的存款狀況，正如約翰指出的那樣，從無息到有息的遷移更少。因此，激進計劃不會對第三季度第四季度產生全面的訂單影響，因為我們將在第三季度看到更穩定的情況。

Got it. And so as I think about the fourth quarter, is it fair then to say that your guidance implies NII of $1.52 billion for the third quarter? So do we assume that we're at or around that range for the fourth quarter? And as we think about the puts and takes of 2024 -- and John, I have to bring this up because a few investors were noting, I think now it's Slide 31, where you have some swaps rolling off that have very heavy weighted average fixed rate that you're receiving.

知道了。因此，當我想到第四季度時，可以公平地說，您的指導意味著第三季度的 NII 為 15.2 億美元嗎？那麼我們是否假設第四季度我們處於或接近這個範圍？當我們思考 2024 年的看跌期權和期權時，約翰，我必須提出這一點，因為一些投資者註意到，我認為現在是幻燈片 31，其中有一些掉期滾動，這些掉期的加權平均固定值非常大您收到的評價。

So as I think about $1.52 billion perhaps as a starting point, plus or minus, I assume that the -- your guide for down a 100 basis points NII for full year down 1.2% is still valid if we assume rate cuts next year and includes those swap roll-offs. So that's sort of the first question.

因此，當我認為 15.2 億美元也許是一個起點（加減）時，我認為，如果我們假設明年降息並包括在內，那麼全年 NII 下降 100 個基點，下降 1.2% 的指導仍然有效。那些掉期滾存。這是第一個問題。

And the second is, how does balance sheet optimization impact that sensitivity? So I'm assuming that's extraordinarily static. So -- and I'm assuming that from both sides, you're paying off more debt next year as you're awaiting for these loans to come on and then your -- as you wait for these loans, you're also putting it in higher yielding -- in cash. So if you could just help us think through the moving pieces as it relates to that original disclosure because I think investors are thinking about the potential for rate cuts next year.

第二個問題是，資產負債表優化如何影響這種敏感性？所以我假設這是非常靜態的。因此，我假設，從雙方角度來看，當您等待這些貸款的發放時，您明年將償還更多的債務，然後您的-當您等待這些貸款時，您還將償還更多的債務它的收益更高——現金。因此，如果您能幫助我們思考與最初披露相關的動態內容，因為我認為投資者正在考慮明年降息的可能性。

Maybe I'll just start off in a couple of areas. Just when you think about NII, some of the numbers that you're throwing out there are probably a little lighter than where we would see them come out. I think our NII would be a little better than that. And into fourth quarter, I think we have some opportunities to -- if interest-earning assets are going to be stabilized, as Bruce indicated, and net interest margins stabilize, so we think the NII has also stabilized at solid levels. So that was, I think, the first question that you had. I mean, I think the...

也許我會從幾個領域開始。當你想到 NII 時，你拋出的一些數字可能比我們看到的要輕一些。我想我們的NII會比那好一點。進入第四季度，我認為我們有一些機會——如果生息資產能夠穩定下來，正如布魯斯指出的那樣，並且淨息差穩定下來，那麼我們認為NII也穩定在穩定的水平。我認為這是您提出的第一個問題。我的意思是，我認為...

Just to put a point on that, too, is that any swap impacts are in our forward guides, Erika. So we've already contemplated that. So there's nothing -- and they didn't really move. We didn't do any adjustments in the second quarter. So...

還要強調一點的是，任何互換影響都在我們的前瞻性指南中，埃里卡。所以我們已經考慮過這一點。所以什麼也沒有——而且他們也沒有真正移動。第二季度我們沒有做任何調整。所以...

Yes. There's very limited adjustments. Things do roll off and come on. But broadly, our asset sensitivity profile was pretty stable quarter-over-quarter, meaning we are -- we were still asset sensitive. So we rise, which we're about to get from the Fed, does actually contribute to NII and net interest margin for us. So from that perspective, all of that has been built into the commentary that we've been giving you in terms of the swap roll-off and our ongoing positive asset sensitivity.

是的。調整非常有限。事情確實會來來去去。但總的來說，我們的資產敏感性狀況季度環比相當穩定，這意味著我們仍然對資產敏感。因此，我們即將從美聯儲獲得的加息實際上確實為我們的NII和淨息差做出了貢獻。因此，從這個角度來看，所有這些都已納入我們就掉期滾存和我們持續的積極資產敏感性向您提供的評論中。

Again, when you get -- when you think about net interest margin over -- kind of the next several quarters, we have a number of tailwinds. You've got flattening out noninterest-bearing migration. So that's no longer expected to be a big headwind. You've got the runoff book that we talked about. And that runoff book is going to be rotated into relationship lending at higher yields. So the runoff...

同樣，當你考慮未來幾個季度的淨息差時，我們將面臨許多有利因素。無息移民已經趨於平緩。因此，這不再是一個巨大的阻力。你已經拿到了我們討論過的決選書。該決選書將被輪換為收益率更高的關係貸款。那麼徑流...

And things -- paying off high-cost debt too.

還有一些事情——還清高成本的債務。

And paying down the high-cost funding, right, so -- where we have a negative kind of spread situation there. We already mentioned the fact that the private bank is going to start contributing to the balance sheet later this year and that -- the net interest margin on that is actually accretive to the overall legacy bank.

並支付高成本的資金，對吧，我們那裡的利差情況是負面的。我們已經提到過，私人銀行將於今年晚些時候開始為資產負債表做出貢獻，而淨息差實際上會增加整個傳統銀行的表現。

The other thing I throw out there is that just the front book, back book dynamics where you basically have originations in the front book, just in the securities portfolio alone, there's 300 basis points plus positive front book, back book in terms of -- we're actually creating a bigger securities book, but we're doing it at just -- at the right time where securities yields are actually historically quite favorable. And so we're putting a lot away from that standpoint.

我拋出的另一件事是，光是前賬本、後賬本動態，基本上就起源於前賬本，僅在證券投資組合中，就有 300 個基點加上正前賬本、後賬本——我們實際上正在創建一個更大的證券賬簿，但我們只是在證券收益率實際上在歷史上相當有利的正確時間這樣做。因此，我們從這個角度出發做了很多努力。

And we're seeing back into the loan book spreads on our front book originations higher than they were. And for example, in C&I, spreads are up 50 basis points over the last year, year-over-year. So that's also a tailwind. And all of those things are the things that are going to help us manage, the fact that manage the rate environment and the other items that we...

我們發現我們的前賬本原始貸款賬面利差高於原來。例如，在 C&I 領域，利差比去年上升了 50 個基點。所以這也是一種順風。所有這些事情都將幫助我們管理，管理費率環境以及我們...的其他項目。

So I think what John described, Erika, is a number of tailwinds that should be positive. So if the Fed is cutting next year, that potentially is a negative. But we have these positive things to offset that, which gives us kind of that stable view on the NIM into '24.

所以我認為約翰所描述的，埃里卡，是一些應該是積極的順風車。因此，如果美聯儲明年降息，這可能是一個負面影響。但我們有這些積極的事情來抵消這一點，這讓我們對 24 年的 NIM 有了一種穩定的看法。

Got it. And just to wrap it up, just because I got a few e-mails to clarify, and I'll step aside. It sounds like your sensitivity hasn't changed. So whatever that fourth quarter number is, which is stable to third quarter, the down 1.2% and down 100 is still valid. But then the balance sheet optimization will get you closer to stable despite Fed cuts?

知道了。總結一下，只是因為我收到了幾封電子郵件需要澄清，所以我就離開了。看來你的敏感度沒有改變。因此，無論第四季度的數字是多少（與第三季度相比保持穩定），下降 1.2% 和下降 100 仍然有效。但是，儘管美聯儲降息，資產負債表優化會讓你更接近穩定嗎？

Yes, I agree. So balance sheet optimization plus the fact that when -- if rates were -- rates begin to fall, if they do. We don't have that happening in the fourth quarter, by the way. We have that happening in '24. We have the Fed on hold for the rest of the year. And we have the Fed -- just based on the forward curve, right, having the Fed ending around 4% in '24.

是的我同意。因此，資產負債表優化加上這樣一個事實：當利率開始下降時（如果利率下降的話）。順便說一句，我們第四季度不會發生這種情況。我們在 24 年就發生了這種情況。我們讓美聯儲在今年剩餘時間內按兵不動。我們有美聯儲——僅基於遠期曲線，右圖，美聯儲在 24 年結束時利率約為 4%。

So it's really not until '24, where you see those down rate scenarios. And in the down rate scenario, I mean, that's where deposit betas start working for you rather than against you. And so then you start getting some of that coming in as well as the fixed loan portfolio that creates a buffer when rates start to fall. And so I would just add those 2 things to all the other tailwinds, I already articulated as to why we feel like we can hold a stable NIM.

所以直到 24 年，你才會看到利率下調的情況。我的意思是，在利率下調的情況下，存款貝塔值開始為你服務，而不是對你不利。因此，您開始獲得其中的一些資金以及固定貸款投資組合，這些投資組合在利率開始下降時創造了緩衝。因此，我會將這兩件事添加到所有其他有利因素中，我已經闡明了為什麼我們認為我們可以保持穩定的淨息差。

Yes. I'd just close -- and you've got an extended period of time here, Erika, and we're very interested in the NIM, which I'm sure is on a lot of investors' minds. But kind of bigger picture is we're kind of transitioning the loan book to things that are more strategic and offer better returns on capital and better opportunities for cross-sell and deepening with customers. And so we're kind of working through a transition period this year and even into next year.

是的。我剛剛結束——Erika，你在這裡待了很長一段時間，我們對 NIM 非常感興趣，我相信很多投資者都關心這一點。但更大的前景是，我們正在將貸款簿轉變為更具戰略性的東西，提供更好的資本回報以及更好的交叉銷售和深化客戶機會。因此，我們今年正在經歷一個過渡期，甚至進入明年。

It's a little hard to give you full guidance at this point given a lot of uncertainty still in the market. We're giving you our best instincts at this point on that. But I feel quite confident that as we kind of emerge through '24 and then even look out to '25 that kind of with the lift-off of this private bank effort and the kind of rundown of these less strategic portfolios that we're going to get a lot of benefit from this. And we're really poised to do quite well, I think, looking out into kind of back half of '24 into '25.

鑑於市場仍然存在很多不確定性，目前很難給您提供全面的指導。目前我們正在向您提供我們最好的直覺。但我非常有信心，隨著我們在 24 世紀的崛起，甚至展望 25 世紀，私人銀行業務的啟動以及我們將要進行的這些戰略性較低的投資組合的精簡從而獲得很多好處。我認為，展望 24 世紀後半段到 25 世紀，我們確實準備好做得很好。

Yes, Bruce, that private bank lift-off is a boss move. I think everybody just wanted to figure out what that runway looks like. And I think this conversation we just had clarified that run rate.

是的，布魯斯，私人銀行的崛起是老闆的舉動。我想每個人都只是想弄清楚那條跑道是什麼樣子。我認為這次談話我們剛剛澄清了運行率。

Your next question will come from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

This is Nate Stein on behalf of Matt O'Connor. Just one question for me. So the capital build was good this quarter with CET1 rising to 10.3% from 10%, and guidance calls for this increase again in 3Q. Just wanted to ask how high are you willing to let the ratio get to?

我是內特·斯坦因，代表馬特·奧康納。只是問我一個問題。因此，本季度資本建設良好，CET1 從 10% 升至 10.3%，指導意見要求第三季度再次增加資本。只是想問一下您願意讓這個比例達到多高？

I think -- it's Bruce. I think by the end of the year, we could see it getting to 10.5%, which is a bit above. Our stated range have been 9.5% to 10%. I think given all the uncertainty that's out there in the economy, plus direction of travel from regulators, managing it up like that is sensible.

我想——是布魯斯。我認為到今年年底，我們可以看到它達到 10.5%，這有點高了。我們規定的範圍是 9.5% 到 10%。我認為，考慮到經濟中存在的所有不確定性，加上監管機構的行動方向，這樣的管理是明智的。

Having said that, we're still generating quite good returns, which gives us the ability to kind of nudge that up from here in terms of the ratio but also repurchase our stock, which we think is great value at the current pricing. So that's how we're looking at it.

話雖如此，我們仍然產生了相當不錯的回報，這使我們有能力在比率方面從現在開始提高回報，同時也可以回購我們的股票，我們認為以當前的定價來看，這是非常有價值的。這就是我們的看法。

And then as we go through 2024 at this point, our early thoughts would be kind of more of the same, that we can at least hold that 10.5% and maybe build on it based on what we see from regulators. But we have the wherewithal to be in the market buying our stock on a consistent basis and holding or building that ratio further.

然後，當我們進入 2024 年的這一點時，我們早期的想法會更加相似，即我們至少可以持有 10.5%，並可能根據我們從監管機構看到的情況在此基礎上繼續發展。但我們有足夠的資金在市場上持續購買我們的股票，並進一步持有或提高這一比率。

Your next question will come from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

您的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行的杰拉德·卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy)。

Can you guys share with us -- obviously, Vice Chair bars come out with a speech last week talking about RWA increases that will lead to higher capital levels for all banks over $100 billion in assets. Have you guys given some thought on where this could be -- where you could be most impacted by the new Basel III in-game rules that maybe will come out next week?

你們能否與我們分享一下——顯然，副主席酒吧上週發表了一次演講，談論 RWA 的增加，這將導致所有資產超過 1000 億美元的銀行資本水平提高。你們有沒有想過這可能會在哪裡——下周可能發布的新巴塞爾協議 III 遊戲規則對你們的影響最大？

And then second, as part of this, this week, Bloomberg reported that there may even be some RWA increases for residential mortgages, which really hasn't been discussed. And how are you guys approaching what could be coming possibly as soon as next week?

其次，作為其中的一部分，本週，彭博社報導稱，住宅抵押貸款的 RWA 甚至可能會增加，但這實際上還沒有被討論過。你們如何應對下周可能發生的事情？

Let me start, I'll quickly flip it to John. But clearly, I would say there's mixed views on whether that's a sound proposal at this point. And I think the industry itself has included itself very well through the pandemic through this period of turmoil in the first half of the year. And I think many folks have commented that the industry has strong capital.

讓我開始吧，我會很快把它轉給約翰。但顯然，我想說，目前對於這是否是一個合理的提議，存在不同的看法。我認為這個行業本身已經很好地度過了今年上半年的這段動盪時期。我想很多人都說這個行業資本雄厚。

And so in response to 3 idiosyncratic bank failures, is it appropriate that the thing that needs to be fixed is more capital in the banking system? I don't know. I question whether that's appropriate, and we'll see how it plays out. I think there'll be lots of dialogue around that.

那麼，針對三起特殊的銀行倒閉，需要解決的問題是增加銀行體系的資本是否合適？我不知道。我質疑這是否合適，我們將看看結果如何。我認為圍繞這個問題將會有很多對話。

I think from our standpoint, by moving our capital position higher, we're anticipating any of what could come down the pike is something that we can absorb. We're in a very strong position relative to our SCB, which, by the way, we still have some questions about how it landed where it did. But nonetheless, we're well above that and we're well above if the AOCI filter goes away. We already have sufficient capital to meet our new proposed SCB.

我認為從我們的角度來看，通過提高我們的資本頭寸，我們預計任何可能出現的情況都是我們可以吸收的。相對於我們的 SCB，我們處於非常有利的地位，順便說一句，我們仍然對其如何實現這一目標存在一些疑問。但儘管如此，我們遠遠高於這個水平，而且如果 AOCI 過濾器消失，我們也遠高於這個水平。我們已經有足夠的資本來滿足我們新提議的 SCB 的要求。

So we're in a position of strength, Gerard. I think we can still deliver the kind of returns we aspire to over time as we get through this transition period and hit our medium-term financial targets. But I would kind of at least comment that I'm not sure that that's the answer when we had a series of management, supervisory failures and poor asset liability management. That really was the problem that caused this turmoil, not a lack of capital in the banking system.

所以我們處於有利地位，杰拉德。我認為，隨著時間的推移，當我們度過這個過渡期並實現我們的中期財務目標時，我們仍然可以提供我們渴望的回報。但我至少要評論說，當我們遇到一系列管理、監管失敗和資產負債管理不善時，我不確定這就是答案。這確實是造成這場動蕩的問題，而不是銀行體系缺乏資本。

So I'll get off my soapbox, and I'll pass it over to John.

所以我會從我的演講台上下來，然後把它交給約翰。

Yes. Agree with all of that, by the way. And I think the issue is in credit RWA versus operational risk RWA, Gerard. So I think there was a view that there would be some puts and takes on the credit risk RWA and maybe it wouldn't be much of an increase expected at the regional bank level. But I did see -- we did see those reports on residential mortgages. We'll see how it all plays out.

是的。順便說一句，我同意所有這些。我認為問題在於信用 RWA 與操作風險 RWA，Gerard。因此，我認為有一種觀點認為，信用風險 RWA 將會有一些看跌期權和承兌期權，而且區域銀行層面的預期增幅可能不會太大。但我確實看到了——我們確實看到了那些關於住宅抵押貸款的報告。我們將看看這一切如何進行。

But on the operational risk side of things, with a complex fee-based sort of businesses are where a lot of that is directed. And it's not just -- we don't have much of as much of exposure to that as maybe some other banks in the industry do. So broadly, we felt like that we would be impacted, possibly a little less than most, and we're sitting with capital a little more than most. And so from that perspective, we feel pretty well positioned for the uncertainty of the regulatory rule-making process.

但在運營風險方面，複雜的收費業務是其中很多的方向。這不僅僅是——我們沒有像業內其他一些銀行那樣擁有那麼多的風險敞口。總的來說，我們覺得我們會受到影響，可能比大多數人都要少一點，而且我們持有的資本比大多數人多一點。因此，從這個角度來看，我們感覺自己已經做好了應對監管規則制定過程的不確定性的準備。

And as you heard from Bruce, we're growing capital into the end of the year. And I think a 10 -- something in the neighborhood of 10.5% CET1 is a pretty strong mitigant to anything that might come down the road from the Fed.

正如您從布魯斯那裡聽到的，我們將在今年年底增加資本。我認為 10——大約 10.5% CET1 的值對於美聯儲可能採取的措施來說是一個相當強的緩解措施。

Your next question will come from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題將來自肯·烏斯丁 (Ken Usdin) 和杰弗里斯 (Jefferies) 的線路。

I just wanted to follow up on the strategic remixing. I'm wondering, can you give us some color on the types of loans and deposits that you think will come over as part of that -- those new hires in the private bank? I mean, obviously, the First Republic mix had been kind of low-rate mortgages in high-rate CDs. I would expect that's not the type of NIM you're looking to be adding. So just wondering just what those producers you're expecting to bring over and also kind of -- we can see it in your AUM expectation. But is it -- it looks like it will be more NII delivering as opposed to fees?

我只是想跟進戰略混音。我想知道，您能否給我們一些關於您認為將作為其中一部分的貸款和存款類型的信息——私人銀行的新員工？我的意思是，顯然，第一共和國的組合是低利率抵押貸款和高利率 CD 的結合。我預計這不是您想要添加的 NIM 類型。因此，只是想知道您希望帶來哪些生產商以及類似的內容 - 我們可以在您的 AUM 預期中看到這一點。但看起來更多的是 NII 交付而不是費用嗎？

Turn that over to Brendan.

把它交給布倫丹。

Yes. So we are really excited, obviously, about this initiative. And it's a very strategic acceleration of our wealth management business. But to your point, it does come with scaling up the bank as well. While we are aiming to recreate a lot of the customer experience magic that existed in these private banking models, we are going to make some structural changes to make sure that the profile of the business that we get is accretive at the top of the house.

是的。顯然，我們對這一舉措感到非常興奮。這是我們財富管理業務的戰略性加速。但就你而言，它確實也伴隨著銀行規模的擴大。雖然我們的目標是重現這些私人銀行模式中存在的許多客戶體驗魔力，但我們將進行一些結構性改變，以確保我們獲得的業務形像在高層中不斷增值。

So what you can expect from us is disciplined credit pricing that while we'll be competitive, we're not going to kind of lead with undercutting the market and pricing to make sure we have the right margin. We will have incredibly disciplined credit appetite. We don't expect to take a step forward or a step in the wrong direction in terms of credit risk profile. In fact, we think this will enhance the credit risk profile with very low-risk loan generation.

因此，您可以從我們這裡得到的是嚴格的信貸定價，雖然我們將具有競爭力，但我們不會以削弱市場和定價來領先，以確保我們擁有適當的利潤。我們將擁有極其嚴格的信貸胃口。我們預計在信用風險狀況方面不會向前邁出一步，也不會朝著錯誤的方向邁出一步。事實上，我們認為這將通過產生風險極低的貸款來提高信用風險狀況。

We are going to ensure that we're driving lendable deposits on the balance sheet that we put out relative to the private bank that we're getting core operating deposits, whether that's from individuals or from businesses. It's really important that we maintain a sound liquidity position in this growth.

我們將確保我們在資產負債表上推動可貸存款，相對於我們獲得核心運營存款的私人銀行，無論是來自個人還是企業。在這種增長中，我們保持良好的流動性狀況非常重要。

And lastly, from a compensation perspective, we're going to sort of rationalize the compensation model best we can within the confines of a private bank to ensure that those -- the combination of those factors give us a return profile that can be accretive at the top of the house on overall ROE but also on things like NIM.

最後，從薪酬的角度來看，我們將在私人銀行的範圍內盡最大努力合理化薪酬模式，以確保這些因素的結合為我們提供了可以增加的回報率無論是在總體 ROE 上還是在 NIM 等方面都名列前茅。

So the balance sheet on the deposit side certainly will have the mix of cash management, operating deposits as well as interest-bearing. But we are going to tether all relationships to being primary banking, whether it's corporate or whether it's personal. So you can expect low-cost DDA to be mixed in with interest-bearing for a healthy profile of primary banking relationships.

因此，存款方面的資產負債表肯定會包含現金管理、經營性存款以及計息存款。但我們將把所有關係都束縛在主要銀行業務上，無論是公司還是個人。因此，您可以期望低成本 DDA 與計息相結合，以建立健康的主要銀行關係。

On the asset side, I'd say we're expecting about a 50-50 mix of what I would call sort of consumer, personal retail lending and small business and corporate lending. And on the personal lending side, really, the large asset classes are going to be mortgage, home equity and eventually partner loan program, where we're putting capital out to individuals to engage as a partner and a hiring consulting firm, a private equity firm, very traditional low-risk assets that dislodge the operating deposits and ultimately lead you to AUM.

在資產方面，我想說，我們預計消費者、個人零售貸款以及小企業和企業貸款的比例約為 50-50。在個人貸款方面，實際上，大型資產類別將是抵押貸款、房屋淨值以及最終的合作夥伴貸款計劃，我們將向個人提供資本，讓他們作為合作夥伴和招聘諮詢公司、私募股權公司參與進來。堅定的、非常傳統的低風險資產，可以驅逐經營存款並最終引導您獲得資產管理規模。

And on the business side, as was mentioned earlier, the profile of the team we got over does have a bent towards the innovation economy. So we're expecting capital call line lending to dislodge operating deposit relationships with private equity and venture and then a small segment where it's appropriate relationship-wise on potentially multifamily in a very high credit environment where we can also secure the personal wealth relationship.

而在業務方面，正如前面提到的，我們所接管的團隊的概況確實有向創新經濟傾斜的傾向。因此，我們預計資本贖回額度貸款將擺脫與私募股權和風險投資的經營性存款關係，然後是一小部分，在信用環境非常高的環境下，對潛在的多戶家庭來說，這是適當的關係，我們也可以確保個人財富關係。

All of our balance sheet usage will be oriented around full end-to-end customer relationships that include deposits and ultimately AUM growth. So it's a very integrated end-to-end business model. And we feel like we've got the right recreation of the service strategy married with the right corrections to the business model to ensure we get better profitability and also a stable business model that can withstand the test of time. And if that -- we think we can do really good growth around this, but we will control the growth with a guardrail of adequate profile of the business that will be healthy and profitable over the long haul.

我們所有的資產負債表使用都將圍繞完整的端到端客戶關係，包括存款和最終資產管理規模的增長。所以這是一個非常集成的端到端商業模式。我們覺得我們已經正確地重新制定了服務策略，並結合了對商業模式的正確修正，以確保我們獲得更好的盈利能力以及能夠經受時間考驗的穩定的商業模式。如果是這樣的話——我們認為我們可以圍繞這一點實現真正良好的增長，但我們將通過適當的業務形象來控制增長，從長遠來看，這將是健康和盈利的。

Great color. And just one more question on the other side of the BSO. John, obviously, talking a lot about the consumer side of the noncore portfolio here. Can you just dig in and just let us know you previously had done a lot on the commercial portfolio? And I'm just wondering, have you done -- and you're currently deep diving into the CRE book as you've talked about on the credit side. What might there still be to do on the commercial side of the portfolio in terms of BSO from that perspective?

顏色很棒。 BSO 的另一邊還有一個問題。顯然，約翰在這裡談論了很多非核心產品組合的消費者方面。您能否深入了解並讓我們知道您之前在商業投資組合上做了很多工作？我只是想知道，您已經完成了嗎？正如您在信用方面所談到的那樣，您目前正在深入研究 CRE 書。從這個角度來看，就 BSO 而言，投資組合的商業方面可能還有哪些工作要做？

Yes. I mean, I think that -- and as you know, in this portfolio that we set up that it's entirely a retail portfolio in terms of that $14 billion. But there are, nevertheless, in parallel BSO activities continuing in the commercial side, and I'll let Don talk about that.

是的。我的意思是，我認為——正如你所知，在我們建立的這個投資組合中，就 140 億美元而言，它完全是一個零售投資組合。但儘管如此，商業方面仍然有並行的 BSO 活動繼續進行，我將讓 Don 來談談這一點。

Yes. So we've been at this for probably 3 or 4 years now as we just [run] out relationships where we haven't been able to achieve the cross-sell that we've all been achieved when we were going into the credit several years ago. So it's really an ongoing effort. It's been running about $1 billion a year, and we -- probably, we'll be running about that same place -- pace. The good news is we've been able to replace some of that with growth in places like New York Metro, where we see a good amount of opportunity on a full wallet basis, particularly in the middle market as we bring on these new hires.

是的。因此，我們在這方面已經做了大概 3 或 4 年了，因為我們剛剛[耗盡]了我們無法實現交叉銷售的關係，而當我們進入信用狀態時，我們已經實現了一些交叉銷售。幾年前。所以這確實是一個持續的努力。它每年的運行速度約為 10 億美元，而我們——可能我們也會以同樣的速度運行。好消息是，我們已經能夠用紐約地鐵等地方的增長來取代其中的一些，在那裡我們看到了大量的機會，特別是在我們引進這些新員工時，在中間市場。

On the CRE side, as everybody knows, there's not a lot of liquidity, but there is some liquidity. And we're actually moving some of our exposures out to the agencies and then do some -- thee is some private capital also. So we'll try to liquefy CRE, particularly multifamily, over the next a couple of quarters, a couple of years to the best we can bring those overall exposures down, even though they're performing pretty well.

在CRE方面，眾所周知，流動性不是很多，但也有一些流動性。我們實際上正在將一些風險敞口轉移給機構，然後再做一些——你也是一些私人資本。因此，我們將在接下來的幾個季度、幾年內努力液化商業房地產，特別是多戶住宅，儘管它們的表現相當不錯，但我們仍能最大程度地降低這些整體風險敞口。

The next question will come from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

下一個問題將來自 John Pancari 和 Evercore 的線路。

Just on the capital side, I heard you in terms of the CET1 trajectory from here and that it does still allow for some repurchases. Maybe could you help us frame out what's a reasonable pace of buybacks? We just assume that's similar to the $250 million that you did this quarter?

就資本方面而言，我從這裡聽到您談到了 CET1 軌跡，它仍然允許進行一些回購。也許您能幫助我們確定合理的回購速度是多少？我們只是假設這與您本季度的 2.5 億美元類似？

Yes, I would say that is something we felt comfortable with in Q3. We were going through the -- or Q2. We were going through the CCAR process at the time. But we saw the opportunity to build kind of have our cake and eat it too, build a ratio while also repurchasing shares. And I think we'll still be in that position. So we still have noncore kind of rundown working for us, which is releasing RWAs. So you should, again, have a chance to somewhat have your cake and eat it too both in Q3 and Q4.

是的，我想說這是我們在第三季度感到滿意的事情。我們正在經歷第二季度。當時我們正在經歷 CCAR 流程。但我們看到了魚與熊掌兼得的機會，在回購股票的同時建立一個比率。我認為我們仍然會處於這個位置。因此，我們仍然有非核心類型的綱要為我們工作，即釋放 RWA。因此，您應該在第三季度和第四季度再次有機會魚與熊掌兼得。

Okay. And then on the noninterest-bearing mix stabilizing at the 23% near the 2Q level, now what gives you confidence in the stabilization? I know you mentioned that you're not pushing as aggressively. You don't see the need to know on competition on pricing. Is there anything though beyond that in terms of the positive behavior that you're beginning to see that gives you that confidence that this is where it's bottoming?

好的。然後，無息組合穩定在第二季度附近的 23%，現在是什麼讓您對穩定有信心？我知道你提到過你並沒有那麼積極地推動。您認為沒有必要了解定價競爭。除此之外，除了你開始看到的積極行為之外，還有什麼東西能讓你相信事情已經觸底了嗎？

Yes. I think there's 2 items that we look at. One is just the -- as we are getting back to the historical place that the platform generated noninterest-bearing prepandemic. And so that's been a sort of a foundational spot that we think creates some solidification of the operating accounts in both retail and consumer. So that's one really important spot. So around that 23% level is about how we see it.

是的。我認為我們會關注兩個項目。一是——我們正在回到該平台在大流行前產生無息的歷史位置。因此，這是一個基礎點，我們認為它可以鞏固零售和消費者的運營賬戶。所以這是一個非常重要的地方。因此，23% 左右的水平取決於我們的看法。

And then the second item is that in the second quarter, we started to see some deceleration for the first time in several quarters. We started to see the turn and deposits kind of migration decelerating. And then we have a number of, I would say, activities on the product and low-cost strategy front that we're seeing some really positive uptick on in retail in particular. And so...

第二項是，在第二季度，我們開始看到幾個季度以來首次出現一些減速。我們開始看到人口流動和存款類型的遷移正在減速。然後，我想說，我們在產品和低成本戰略方面開展了許多活動，特別是在零售領域，我們看到了一些真正積極的增長。所以...

Why don't you ask Brendan to pick up and add some color.

你為什麼不讓布倫丹拿起並添加一些顏色呢？

Yes. A couple of quick points. Just a quick recall, as we've talked over the last whole bunch of quarters, the consumer portfolio has been under a 5-, 6-year transformation for quite some time and is in a very, very different starting point through the beginning of the cycle than ever before for this franchise with significant improvements in things like customer primary -- primacy growth in households. Our mass-affluent mix has improved, and low cost deposit profile has moved up.

是的。幾點要點。快速回顧一下，正如我們在過去幾個季度中所討論的那樣，消費者投資組合在相當長的一段時間內經歷了 5、6 年的轉型，並且在 2019 年年初處於一個非常非常不同的起點。該特許經營的周期比以往任何時候都明顯改善，例如客戶至上——家庭的首要增長。我們的大眾富裕階層結構有所改善，低成本存款狀況有所改善。

So coming into the cycle, we are very confident that it would be more peer-like or maybe outperform. And the data that we're seeing with benchmarking suggests that in the consumer bank, we are indeed better than average versus peers right now on all dimensions: interest-bearing cost, beta as well as low-cost control. So we feel pretty good how we're performing against peers.

因此，進入這個週期後，我們非常有信心它會更像同行，甚至可能跑贏大盤。我們通過基準測試看到的數據表明，在消費銀行中，我們目前在各個方面確實優於同行平均水平：計息成本、貝塔值以及低成本控制。所以我們對自己與同行的表現感覺非常好。

It is starting to stabilize. So the excess surge deposits have burned down maybe by about 60%. So there's still a little bit out there. But a lot of those are starting to be sticky and turn into wealth creation. If you dissect the various different segments, the wealthier segment is still having some modest outflows of rotation into interest-bearing as well as rotation outside of the banking industry. So year-over-year, the wealthier segment is down about 10%.

它開始穩定下來。因此，多餘的浪湧沉積物可能已經燒掉了 60% 左右。所以還有一點。但其中很多已經開始具有粘性並轉化為財富創造。如果你剖析各個不同的細分市場，就會發現較富裕的細分市場仍有一些適度的輪換資金流出到生息銀行以及銀行業之外。因此，較富裕群體的收入同比下降了約 10%。

We're seeing the mass-affluent segment in deposits on a per customer basis about flat. And the mass-market portfolio has actually increased in net deposits. And that's a function of a lot of our strategies that we've put in place to really drive primacy and activity and engagement. And so we've seen a bit of a bottoming at the lower end in terms of DDA balances.

我們看到大眾富裕階層的每客戶存款額基本持平。大眾市場投資組合的淨存款實際上有所增加。這是我們為真正推動首要地位、活動和參與而製定的許多戰略的一個功能。因此，我們看到 DDA 餘額的低端有所觸底。

What we have done to drive that is a lot of product innovation. So we did things like get your paycheck 2 days early. It doesn't seem like a big deal. It's actually an incredibly big deal that's driving a lot of primary banking behavior. We've got technology we put in place that when you open a new DDA, you're automatically porting over your direct deposit. It seems very operationally oriented, but it actually is a dramatic improvement to things like primary banking behavior, which drives low-cost deposits.

我們為推動這一目標所做的就是大量的產品創新。所以我們做了一些事情，比如提前兩天拿到工資。看起來沒什麼大不了的。這實際上是一件令人難以置信的大事，推動了許多主要銀行行為。我們擁有適當的技術，當您開設新的 DDA 時，您會自動轉入您的直接存款。它看起來非常注重運營，但實際上是對主要銀行行為等方面的巨大改進，從而推動了低成本存款。

We've made overdraft reform through our Peace of Mind, 24-hour grace program and a variety of other things, which has also driven a lot of primacy. And we're starting to really rev up the engines on household growth overall. All of those things contribute to some controllables. So I think we're outperforming peers on the market given our starting point in the cycle, and we're continuing to invest to try to further outperform through all of these different initiatives and strategies.

我們通過“安心”、24 小時寬限計劃和其他各種措施進行了透支改革，這也推動了很多首要任務。我們開始真正加速家庭整體增長的引擎。所有這些都有助於實現一些可控性。因此，我認為，鑑於我們在周期中的起點，我們的表現優於市場上的同行，並且我們將繼續投資，試圖通過所有這些不同的舉措和策略進一步超越市場。

It is the long game. These are driving primacy and low-cost deposits is -- it takes a while to build up scale, but I feel like we've got a lot of the right things in place in addition to outperforming on our back book to win the game on controllables where we're at right now.

這是一場持久戰。這些正在推動首要地位，低成本存款是——建立規模需要一段時間，但我覺得除了在我們的背書上表現出色之外，我們還做了很多正確的事情來贏得比賽我們現在所處的位置是可控的。

So while your 2/3 of the deposit base and have all these great strategies, I mean, Don, you've also been investing in payments, capabilities and some new products like sustainable deposits. Maybe you could just offer a brief comment.

因此，雖然您 2/3 的存款基礎並擁有所有這些出色的策略，但我的意思是，唐，您也一直在投資於支付、能力和一些新產品，例如可持續存款。也許你可以提供一個簡短的評論。

Yes, that's right. I mean we've been broadening out our deposit base quite nicely. And as Bruce said, it's a combination of just the growth in the cash management business overall and bringing on more clients on the cash management side. As I said, in New York Metro, the things that we're adding are really full wallet and full cash management relationships, so those bring really nice deposits.

恩，那就對了。我的意思是，我們一直在很好地擴大我們的存款基礎。正如布魯斯所說，這是現金管理業務整體增長和現金管理方面吸引更多客戶的結合。正如我所說，在紐約地鐵，我們添加的東西是真正完整的錢包和完整的現金管理關係，因此這些帶來了非常好的存款。

And then on the product side, we've done a lot around green deposits and carbon offset deposits in our ESG strategy. Those have proved to be quite profitable. We've built that escrow products and bankruptcy products. So there's a variety of product development things, which are attracting nice operating deposits with some nice breadth to them.

然後在產品方面，我們在 ESG 戰略中圍繞綠色存款和碳抵消存款做了很多工作。事實證明，這些都是非常有利可圖的。我們已經構建了託管產品和破產產品。因此，有各種各樣的產品開發項目，它們吸引了不錯的運營存款，而且範圍很廣。

Your next question will come from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞 (Manan Gosalia)。

I appreciate all the detail on the office book. It looks like you have a pretty conservative assumption baked into your CRE office reserve levels of 8%. I guess the question is, what would you need to see to take that up even more? Or over the next few quarters, as some of your office portfolio comes up for renewal, should we expect the reserve levels go down as you have more normalized NCOs in that portfolio?

我很欣賞辦公簿上的所有細節。看來您對 CRE 辦公室準備金水平 8% 的假設相當保守。我想問題是，你需要看到什麼才能進一步了解這一點？或者在接下來的幾個季度，隨著您的一些辦公室投資組合需要更新，我們是否應該預期準備金水平會下降，因為您的投資組合中有更多標準化的 NCO？

Let me start and John or Don can add. But we feel quite good about, a, the overall nature of what we have. And b, then -- so there's good diversification, good quality characteristics. We have some really good people that are really focused hard on this, and they're monitoring this loan by loan. They see the upcoming maturities. They get way in front of those. So we're having good dialogue with borrowers.

讓我開始，約翰或唐可以補充。但我們對我們所擁有的整體性質感到非常滿意。 b，那麼——所以有良好的多樣化和良好的質量特徵。我們有一些非常優秀的人，他們非常關注這一點，他們正在逐筆監控這筆貸款。他們看到了即將到來的到期日。他們遠遠領先於那些人。所以我們正在與借款人進行良好的對話。

And I'd say we did a good job -- relatively good job in the first half of absorbing some of the maturities. And probably about 30 loans, I think, came up for maturity, which is about the number that we're going to have in the second half and it's about the number that we're going to have in the first half of next year. It's about the number that we're going to have in the fourth quarter and next year.

我想說，我們做得很好——上半年在吸收一些到期債券方面做得相對較好。我認為大約有 30 筆貸款即將到期，這大約是我們下半年和明年上半年的數量。這與我們第四季度和明年的數字有關。

And if you look at the net result of that, while we have an increase in criticized, we have an increase this quarter was a little lumpy in NPAs in this sector and that probably levels off, I'd say we were able to build our reserve and absorb charge-offs. So we took $56 million in charge-offs. So that's another kind of 1.5% loss content. If you look at the 8%, it's effectively higher by what we just absorbed.

如果你看一下最終的結果，雖然我們受到批評的數量有所增加，但本季度該行業不良資產的增長有點不穩定，而且可能會趨於平穩，我想說我們能夠建立我們的儲備和吸收沖銷。因此我們沖銷了 5600 萬美元。所以這是另一種1.5%的損失內容。如果你看一下 8%，它實際上比我們剛剛吸收的要高。

And so could we go for another few quarters with absorbing charge-offs kind of on a pay-as-you-go basis with what we're providing and hold the reserve flat? Yes, possibly that could happen. And then at some point, does that tip over and then you don't need as much reserve because you burned some of those losses through your charge-off line. So anyway, that's just a little color about how we think about it.

那麼，我們是否可以再過幾個季度，在現收現付的基礎上吸收沖銷，並保持準備金不變？是的，可能會發生這種情況。然後在某個時候，這種情況會發生翻倒，然後你就不需要那麼多的準備金，因為你通過沖銷線燒掉了其中一些損失。所以無論如何，這只是我們對此的看法的一點色彩。

John, I don't know if you want to add anything or go direct to Don.

約翰，我不知道你是否想添加任何內容或直接去找唐。

Yes. I'll just reiterate the fact that, as you mentioned, we took $56 million. That's 1.5% of -- so that we've got 8.5 -- we got 8% set aside, so that implies a 9.5% coverage for the losses through the cycle. And we think that's pretty darn adequate, as a matter of fact, very strong. And so I think that you also mentioned NPLs flattening out and charge-offs kind of getting in to run rate rather than step change from here, which I think is important to reemphasize.

是的。我只想重申一個事實，正如您提到的，我們拿了 5600 萬美元。這是 1.5%——所以我們有 8.5——我們預留了 8%，所以這意味著整個週期損失的覆蓋率為 9.5%。我們認為這已經足夠了，事實上，非常強大。因此，我認為您還提到不良貸款趨於平緩和沖銷有點進入運行率，而不是從這裡開始逐步變化，我認為再次強調這一點很重要。

And maybe just turn it over to Don.

也許就把它交給唐吧。

No, I think you guys have said it. It was 26 loans, so you're pretty close with 30. That's pretty good that you know that. But I think the thing I'd emphasize is we've literally gone through every single loan one by one and everyone is different. It's property-specific, it's MSA-specific, it's rental-specific, it's sponsor-specific. We're just seeing -- we're starting to see outcomes. And outcomes are a property gets extended and renegotiated with the sponsor. You might have a little bit of equity injected to improve interest carry, and you might charge it off.

不，我想你們已經說過了。這是 26 筆貸款，所以您已經非常接近 30 筆了。您知道這一點真是太好了。但我想我要強調的是，我們實際上已經一一審查了每筆貸款，每個人都是不同的。它是特定於財產的、特定於 MSA 的、特定於租賃的、特定於贊助商的。我們剛剛看到——我們開始看到結果。結果是財產得到延期並與讚助商重新談判。您可能會注入一點股本來改善利息，然後您可能會將其沖銷。

So -- and I think that we have a pretty good eye to the path of the book as we look forward. And things could always change, but I think we feel pretty comfortable that we've been very conservative based on what we see. And I will emphasize, I mean, we're not originating anything really of any scale and origination. So our whole origination team, in addition to our credit team, in addition to our [work path] team, is focused on working with our sponsors to basically...

所以——我認為我們對這本書的未來發展前景有很好的了解。事情總是可能發生變化，但我認為我們感到很舒服，因為根據我們所看到的情況，我們一直非常保守。我要強調的是，我們並沒有真正創造任何規模和起源的東西。因此，我們的整個發起團隊，除了我們的信用團隊，還有我們的[工作路徑]團隊，都專注於與我們的讚助商合作，基本上......

In the office sector.

在辦公領域。

In the office sector, yes. And the rest -- by the way, the rest of the real estate, both multifamily and industrial data centers, I think, it looks like it's holding up extremely well. We're really not seeing any weakness that concerns us at all in the rest of the real estate part.

在辦公領域，是的。順便說一句，其餘的房地產，包括多戶住宅和工業數據中心，我認為看起來都表現得非常好。在房地產的其餘部分，我們確實沒有看到任何令我們擔憂的弱點。

That's very helpful. Just to move on to capital. Is there any color you can share on what drove the increase in the stress capital buffer this year? I know the mortgage was something that was a little bit of a headwind for the whole group, but any other information you've laid from your conversations with the Fed and then maybe what you need to do to bring that down in future years?

這非常有幫助。只是為了轉向資本。您能分享一下今年推動壓力資本緩衝增加的原因嗎？我知道抵押貸款對整個集團來說有點不利，但是您從與美聯儲的對話中獲得的任何其他信息，以及您在未來幾年需要採取哪些措施來降低這種情況？

Yes. I -- we haven't really had the full debrief. So we are getting that set up so we can go through and kind of understand their models better. I think that's been one of the concerns of the industry that it's not that transparent to us. But kind of when we look at the results, there's a couple of things that could have been a factor.

是的。我——我們還沒有真正進行完整的匯報。所以我們正在進行這樣的設置，以便我們可以更好地瀏覽並理解他們的模型。我認為這一直是業界關注的問題之一，因為它對我們來說並不那麼透明。但當我們查看結果時，有幾件事可能是一個因素。

So one is the build of the allowance when we took relatively high charge-offs, we had a significant build, was built into their models, which we didn't have in our models. And that alone probably cost us 30 basis points of a 60 increase or something like that. So that's one thing that we'll want to talk about and understand better.

因此，其中一個是當我們採取相對較高的沖銷額時，津貼的構建，我們有一個重要的構建，被構建到他們的模型中，而我們的模型中沒有。僅此一項就可能讓我們損失 30 個基點或 60 個基點的漲幅或類似的費用。所以這是我們想要討論和更好理解的一件事。

And then questions about we did a deal and did the onetime expenses get incorporated or we've done a lot of hedging in the falling rate scenario, are our hedges getting full benefit. So we just have some questions that we want to poke at.

然後問題是我們做了一筆交易，一次性費用是否被納入，或者我們在利率下降的情況下做了很多對沖，我們的對沖是否獲得了充分的收益。所以我們只是想探討一些問題。

But in any case, I think the bigger point here is that we can roll with this 8.5% and we have plenty of capital, and we have an appreciable buffer versus that capital. So it really doesn't affect kind of our capital management strategies. But we would like to see it get kind of back into line. We think it's a bit elevated relative to where it should be, and we'll be having those conversations with the Fed in the coming weeks.

但無論如何，我認為這裡更重要的一點是，我們可以使用 8.5% 的利率，而且我們有充足的資本，而且我們對這些資本有相當大的緩衝。所以它確實不會影響我們的資本管理策略。但我們希望看到它回到正軌。我們認為相對於應有的水平來說有點高，我們將在未來幾週內與美聯儲進行這些對話。

Yes. I think that as you get past this year, where we have those integration expenses, and there's a hypothesis that, that will roll off as you get into next year. And we'll have another bite at the apple next year given the fact that we're going to be doing this again.

是的。我認為，當你度過今年時，我們會有這些整合費用，並且有一個假設，隨著你進入明年，這些費用將會減少。鑑於我們將再次這樣做，明年我們將再次咬蘋果。

And in the end, the SCB is not our constraint. Our constraint is our own view of what capital we need to be prudent to support our business. And frankly, where the Fed and the regulators are headed with required kind of levels outside of the SCB is going to be our constraint. So we're going to be, as Bruce mentioned earlier, about 200 basis points over the SCB by the end of the year and probably heading towards earlier compliance with whatever the Fed comes out within most. So we're feeling pretty darn good about the capital position, notwithstanding the SCB.

最後，SCB 不是我們的約束。我們的限制是我們自己對需要謹慎的資本來支持我們的業務的看法。坦率地說，美聯儲和監管機構在渣打銀行之外制定所需的水平將成為我們的限制。因此，正如布魯斯之前提到的，到今年年底，我們的利率將比渣打銀行高出約 200 個基點，並且可能會更早地遵守美聯儲的大多數政策。因此，儘管有渣打銀行，我們對資本狀況的感覺非常好。

Got it. And the BSO should have a positive impact on your risk-weighted assets. Should that also have a positive impact on the SCB?

知道了。 BSO 應該會對您的風險加權資產產生積極影響。這是否也會對 SCB 產生積極影響？

No, it will -- it might. I mean, I think more importantly, it will -- it gives us flexibility to rotate RWA capital into relationship lending and return that capital to the extent that those front book opportunities are not there. We probably have the opportunity to do both, where we rotate that capital into relationship lending and provide an ability to buy back. It doesn't have a direct impact on the SCB.

不，它會——它可能會。我的意思是，我認為更重要的是，它使我們能夠靈活地將 RWA 資本轉入關係貸款，並在不存在這些頭面書機會的情況下返還該資本。我們可能有機會做到這兩點，即我們將資本轉化為關係貸款並提供回購能力。它對SCB沒有直接影響。

Your next question will come from the line of Vivek Juneja.

您的下一個問題將來自 Vivek Juneja。

Just a follow-up on the First Republic banker question. Bruce, Brendan, what requirements do you -- what are your pricing assumptions? You said you're trying to bring the pricing to yours, but then what are the assumptions for what the bankers need to deliver to be able to recoup their -- or earn their guarantees? And secondly, given that this was a white-glove service, which is obviously very expensive, what changes are you planning to make to that to be able to get to your hurdle profitability targets?

只是第一共和國銀行家問題的後續。 Bruce、Brendan，你們有什麼要求——你們的定價假設是什麼？您說您正在努力將定價調整為您的定價，但那麼銀行家需要提供什麼才能收回或贏得他們的擔保的假設是什麼？其次，鑑於這是一項白手套服務，顯然非常昂貴，您計劃對此進行哪些改變才能實現您的盈利目標？

Yes. Yes, thanks for the question. We already, prior to the lift-out of the private bankers, had a relationship-based pricing in play in all of our asset classes, including mortgage. So when you bring heavy levels of deposits in AUM, we price down modestly for that. So we don't have any intention of changing what we already do. And so our new private bankers will have access to the same relationship pricing grids that we've had in play for a while.

是的。是的，謝謝你的提問。在取消私人銀行家之前，我們已經在所有資產類別（包括抵押貸款）中採用了基於關係的定價。因此，當您的 AUM 存款水平較高時，我們會適度下調價格。所以我們無意改變我們已經做的事情。因此，我們的新私人銀行家將能夠使用我們已經使用了一段時間的相同關係定價網格。

So as you think about pricing and yields of things like mortgages or even some of the small business commercial lending, we're not expecting a dramatic different profile in terms of profitability or yields from legacy Citizens in how we operate business to make sure that we're considering the full relationship and that we're really competitive in pricing. But we're not undercutting the market by a material amount that will deteriorate either lending return...

因此，當您考慮抵押貸款甚至一些小企業商業貸款等產品的定價和收益率時，我們預計在我們經營業務的方式上，傳統公民的盈利能力或收益率不會出現顯著不同的情況，以確保我們我們正在考慮全面的合作關係，並且我們在定價方面確實具有競爭力。但我們並沒有大幅削弱市場，從而導致貸款回報惡化……

And I think the corollary to that is that the team that came over understand that.

我認為隨之而來的必然結果是過來的團隊明白這一點。

They do.

他們是這樣。

So I'd say the one thing that they won't have in their arsenal is deeply discounted mortgages. But I think they come in with their eyes wide open on that. And quite honestly, the deeply discounted mortgages are probably now back on your balance sheet because people aren't refinancing those at a good clip. So they'll probably sit there for a long time. But anyway, we will kind of do business in a commercial way. And again, the bigger the relationship, the better the pricing generally. And so I think the team coming over is very comfortable with that.

所以我想說，他們的武器庫中不會有的一件事就是大幅折扣的抵押貸款。但我認為他們對此睜大了眼睛。老實說，大幅折扣的抵押貸款現在可能又回到了你的資產負債表上，因為人們沒有以良好的速度為其再融資。所以他們可能會在那裡坐很長時間。但無論如何，我們都會以商業方式開展業務。同樣，關係越大，一般定價就越好。所以我認為過來的團隊對此非常滿意。

And on the question around expenses, implied in the comments that John and Bruce both made around breakevens inside of 2024 is the team's production covering kind of comp guarantees to come over. So we've been really thoughtful about how we do that. But obviously, we've got the way these folks get paid is on a book of business model. And they're going to go out and develop a lot of business, and we're going to give them the runway to do that.

關於費用問題，約翰和布魯斯在 2024 年實現收支平衡時發表的評論中暗示，球隊的生產覆蓋了某種補償保證。因此，我們非常認真地思考如何做到這一點。但顯然，我們已經在商業模式的書中找到了這些人獲得報酬的方式。他們將走出去發展大量業務，我們將為他們提供這樣做的跑道。

We had a lot of debate with them on the appropriate timing to make that happen and make sure the operations, excellence is available here at Citizens. The cost of that is considered in all of our guidance and commentary we made about the profitability of the business. And we're already well underway on tinkering with the way the bank works to make sure we're creating the conditions for them.

我們與他們就實現這一目標的適當時機進行了很多辯論，並確保公民能夠實現卓越的運營。我們對業務盈利能力所做的所有指導和評論都考慮了這一成本。我們已經在積極修改銀行的工作方式，以確保我們為他們創造條件。

Yes. And I'd say there, we probably had the brakes on a little bit to make sure that we get it to the level because you kind of get one shot with some of these customers. And so we've got a full effort on making sure that we get to the standards that we need.

是的。我想說的是，我們可能會稍微踩一下剎車，以確保我們達到一定水平，因為你可以與其中一些客戶進行一次嘗試。因此，我們全力以赴確保達到我們需要的標準。

I would say one other silver lining from that also is that, that will help us up our game in customer experience more broadly, the kind of initiatives that we're taking to make sure that we make this a great experience. There'll be some things that spin off from that, that we can move to other parts of the bank, without a question.

我想說的另一個一線希望是，這將幫助我們更廣泛地提升客戶體驗，我們正在採取這種舉措來確保我們創造出一種很棒的體驗。毫無疑問，我們可以將一些從中衍生出來的東西轉移到銀行的其他部門。

And for a follow-up, just Don. Don, what are you seeing on the whole sponsor side given with high rates in the market? When -- what level do you expect it to come back to even in '24, say, just given if rates stay high, yes, some cuts, but I don't think anybody is expecting it to go back to where we were 1.5 years ago? So any thoughts on what level of activity do you think we get back?

後續請請唐。唐，鑑於市場上的高利率，您對整個贊助商方面有何看法？比如說，如果利率保持在高位，你預計什麼時候會回到24年的水平，是的，會進行一些削減，但我認為沒有人期望它會回到1.5的水平幾年前？那麼您認為我們會恢復到什麼水平的活動？

We'll see. High level, our pipelines are about 30% higher than they were at this time last quarter. So we're seeing the pipelines build. Sponsors are certainly engaging in conversations whether they can get to actual transactions or not, although there have been. Some there was a Worldpay transaction that was announced a few weeks ago. So we're beginning to see some transactions.

我們拭目以待。高水平，我們的管道比上季度此時高出約 30%。所以我們看到管道正在建設。贊助商肯定正在討論是否可以進行實際交易，儘管已經有過這種情況。其中一些是幾週前宣布的 Worldpay 交易。所以我們開始看到一些交易。

Remember, one of the things that we benefit from, and I've said this a couple of quarters, is we tend to play in smaller deals, right? So we're $100 million to $750 million to $1 billion in terms of deal size, whether it be advisory or financing. We were #1 in the middle-market leveraged finance lead tables in the last quarter. Volumes were down, but we were the #1 institution playing. So we're gaining share for what's available.

請記住，我們受益的事情之一，我已經說過幾個季度了，是我們傾向於進行較小的交易，對嗎？因此，我們的交易規模為 1 億至 7.5 億至 10 億美元，無論是諮詢還是融資。上季度我們在中間市場槓桿融資領先表中排名第一。成交量下降了，但我們是排名第一的機構。因此，我們正在利用可用的資源來獲得份額。

So do I think we're going to be back to 2021 levels? No. But I think if you get stability in rates, it's the beginning of deal formation will happen, and it will just depend on valuation dynamics between sponsors and sellers. And there's just a lot of companies in our portfolio that just need to sell. They want to sell for generational reasons.

那麼我認為我們會回到 2021 年的水平嗎？不會。但我認為，如果利率穩定，交易就會開始形成，而這僅取決於贊助商和賣家之間的估值動態。我們的投資組合中有很多公司只需要出售。他們出於代際原因想要出售。

So there are things that are available, deals make it over-equitized just to keep the interest burden down if value doesn't come down. But we're starting to see a lot of conversations going. So I don't think we're going to be off to the races, but I think it's going to continually build. And I think '24 could be a pretty good year.

因此，有些東西是可用的，交易使其過度股權化，只是為了在價值不下降的情況下降低利息負擔。但我們開始看到很多對話正在進行。所以我不認為我們會參加比賽，但我認為它會不斷發展。我認為 24 年可能是非常好的一年。

There are no further questions in queue. And with that, I'll turn it back over to Mr. Van Saun for closing remarks.

隊列中沒有其他問題。接下來，我將把它轉回給 Van Saun 先生做總結髮言。

All right. Thanks, Alan, and thanks again, everyone, for dialing in today. We certainly appreciate your interest and support. Have a great day.

好的。謝謝艾倫，再次感謝大家今天撥通電話。我們當然感謝您的關注和支持。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude your conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。