Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Citizens Financial Group First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Alan, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded. Now I'll turn the call over to Kristin Silberberg, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations. Kristin, you may begin.

大家早上好，歡迎來到 Citizens Financial Group 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。我叫艾倫，今天我是你的接線員。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，正在記錄此事件。現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係執行副總裁 Kristin Silberberg。克里斯汀，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Alan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, this morning, our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and CFO, John Woods, will provide an overview of our first quarter results. Brendan Coughlin, Head of Consumer Banking; and Don McCree, Head of Commercial Banking, are also here to provide additional color. We will be referencing our first quarter earnings presentation located on our Investor Relations website. After the presentation, we will be happy to take questions.

謝謝你，艾倫。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。首先，今天上午，我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Bruce Van Saun；首席財務官 John Woods 將概述我們第一季度的業績。個人銀行業務主管 Brendan Coughlin；商業銀行業務負責人Don McCree也在此添彩。我們將參考我們位於投資者關係網站上的第一季度收益報告。演示結束後，我們將很樂意回答問題。

Our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. These are outlined for your review on Page 2 of the presentation. We also reference non-GAAP financial measures, so it's important to review our GAAP results on Page 3 of the presentation and the reconciliations in the appendix. With that, I will hand over to you, Bruce.

我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期存在重大差異。這些已在演示文稿的第 2 頁概述，供您查看。我們還參考了非 GAAP 財務指標，因此在演示文稿第 3 頁上查看我們的 GAAP 結果和附錄中的對賬非常重要。有了這個，我會交給你，布魯斯。

Thanks, Kristin. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call today. First quarter brought many unexpected challenges in the environment. Nonetheless, we proved resilient and adaptable, and we delivered a solid quarter for our stakeholders. We maintained a strong capital, liquidity and funding position with our CET1 ratio at 10%, our TCE ratio at 6.6%, and a solid deposit franchise that skews 2/3 consumer.

謝謝，克里斯汀。大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。一季度環境帶來了很多意想不到的挑戰。儘管如此，我們證明了彈性和適應性，我們為我們的利益相關者提供了一個穩定的季度。我們保持了強勁的資本、流動性和資金狀況，我們的 CET1 比率為 10%，我們的 TCE 比率為 6.6%，並且穩固的存款特許經營權使 2/3 的消費者傾斜。

We've seen the churn in the deposit market continue to diminish since the bank failures with our deposits broadly stable in the month of March. For the quarter, we posted underlying earnings per share of $1.10 and return on tangible equity of 15.8%. Our NII was down 3%, reflecting day count impact, slightly lower earning assets and a stable net interest margin of 3.3%.

自銀行倒閉以來，我們已經看到存款市場的波動持續減少，而我們的存款在 3 月份大體穩定。本季度，我們公佈的基本每股收益為 1.10 美元，有形股本回報率為 15.8%。我們的 NII 下降了 3%，反映了天數影響、盈利資產略低以及穩定的 3.3% 淨息差。

Noninterest income and noninterest expense came in broadly as expected, both impacted by seasonality. Our credit metrics are also trending as expected and we built our ACL to loans ratio to 1.47%, which was up 4 basis points during the quarter and it's [17] basis points higher than our pro forma day 1 CECL ACL ratio. We repurchased $400 million in shares during the quarter, which reduced our share count by 1.7%.

非利息收入和非利息支出大致符合預期，均受季節性影響。我們的信用指標也按預期趨勢發展，我們將 ACL 與貸款的比率提高到 1.47%，該比率在本季度上升了 4 個基點，比我們備考的第 1 天 CECL ACL 比率高 [17] 個基點。我們在本季度回購了 4 億美元的股票，這使我們的股票數量減少了 1.7%。

In our slide deck, we tackle head-on some of the industry issues that investors have been concerned about. I'll let John run through the details, but the headline is that we have strong confidence in our capital, liquidity and funding position. We have been conservative in maintaining a capital ratio near the top of our peer group in focusing on a stable consumer-oriented and granular deposit base and in establishing a prudent credit risk appetite and reserve level.

在我們的幻燈片中，我們直面投資者一直關注的一些行業問題。我會讓約翰詳細介紹一下，但標題是我們對我們的資本、流動性和資金狀況充滿信心。我們一直保持保守的資本比率接近同業最高水平，專注於穩定的以消費者為導向的精細存款基礎，並建立審慎的信用風險偏好和準備金水平。

While we had some commercial real estate exposure, we feel good about our diversification, the asset characteristics and the borrower quality. CRE criticized assets and workouts will increase during the cycle but we currently expect losses to be manageable, and we've already set aside meaningful reserves.

雖然我們有一些商業房地產風險敞口，但我們對我們的多元化、資產特徵和借款人質量感到滿意。 CRE 批評的資產和鍛煉將在周期內增加，但我們目前預計損失是可控的，我們已經撥出有意義的儲備。

On the regulatory front, it is clear that some changes will occur. Our hope is that the response is thoughtful and appropriate, leaving the bank landscape that has served our country so well intact and even stronger than before. In any case, we anticipate any changes will follow a review and comment process with any revisions likely to be phased in gradually.

在監管方面，顯然會發生一些變化。我們希望，回應是深思熟慮和適當的，讓為我們國家服務的銀行格局完好無損，甚至比以前更強大。無論如何，我們預計任何更改都將遵循審查和評論流程，並且任何修訂都可能逐步實施。

While much of the past month has been focused on playing strong defense, we continue to play prudent offense by investing in and advancing our strategic initiatives. We will clearly prioritize deposits deepening and efficiency initiatives for the balance of 2023.

雖然過去一個月的大部分時間都集中在進行強有力的防禦，但我們繼續通過投資和推進我們的戰略舉措來進行謹慎的進攻。我們將在 2023 年餘下時間明確優先推進存款深化和效率舉措。

Our New York City Metro integration is progressing extremely well with a successful core conversion of Investors Bank in February and growth metrics that are well ahead of plan. Our outlook for 2023 still shows attractive RoTCE for the full year despite the challenging environment. There's still a great deal of uncertainty, which makes forecasting more difficult, but we remain confident in the strength of our franchise and the ability to weather the storm.

我們的紐約市地鐵整合進展非常順利，2 月份 Investors Bank 的核心轉型成功，增長指標遠超計劃。儘管環境充滿挑戰，但我們對 2023 年的展望仍然顯示出全年具有吸引力的 RoTCE。仍然存在很大的不確定性，這使得預測變得更加困難，但我們仍然對我們的特許經營權和抵御風暴的能力充滿信心。

We are building a great bank, and we remain excited about our future. Our capital strength and attractive franchise should position us to be nimble and to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.

我們正在建設一家偉大的銀行，我們對未來感到興奮。我們的資本實力和有吸引力的特許經營權應該使我們變得靈活，並在機會出現時加以利用。

With that, let me turn it over to John to take you through more of the financial details. John?

有了這個，讓我把它交給約翰來帶你了解更多的財務細節。約翰？

Thanks, Bruce, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the headlines for the financial results referencing Slide 5. Big picture, first quarter results were solid against the backdrop of volatility in the macro environment. We continue to progress against our portfolio of strategic initiatives, including the well-executed conversion of the investor platform in February.

謝謝，布魯斯，大家早上好。讓我從幻燈片 5 的財務業績標題開始。總體而言，在宏觀環境波動的背景下，第一季度業績穩健。我們繼續推進我們的戰略計劃組合，包括 2 月份投資者平台的執行良好的轉換。

For the first quarter, we generated underlying net income of $560 million and EPS of $1.10. Our underlying RoTCE for the quarter was 15.8%. Net interest income was down 3% linked quarter given the lower day count and lower interest-earning assets. Our margin was stable at 3.3%.

第一季度，我們產生了 5.6 億美元的基本淨收入和 1.10 美元的每股收益。我們本季度的基礎 RoTCE 為 15.8%。由於天數減少和生息資產減少，淨利息收入環比下降 3%。我們的利潤率穩定在 3.3%。

Period-end loans and average loans were down slightly quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the impact of our balance sheet optimization efforts, such as our ongoing runoff of auto. Deposit levels declined in the quarter primarily due to the impact of seasonal factors, the compounding impact of the rate environment and particularly earlier this occurred in the quarter.

期末貸款和平均貸款環比略有下降，反映了我們資產負債表優化工作的影響，例如我們正在進行的汽車業務縮減。本季度存款水平下降主要是由於季節性因素的影響、利率環境的複合影響，尤其是本季度早些時候發生的這種情況。

Importantly, our deposit levels were broadly stable during the market turbulence in March. Our quarter end LVR is 89.8% and our liquidity position remains very strong with current available liquidity as of today of about $66 billion.

重要的是，在 3 月份的市場動盪期間，我們的存款水平大致穩定。我們的季度末 LVR 為 89.8%，我們的流動性狀況仍然非常強勁，截至今天，可用流動性約為 660 億美元。

Our credit metrics and overall position remains solid. Total net charge-offs of 34 basis points are up 12 basis points linked quarter, in line with ongoing normalization trends. We recorded a provision for credit losses of $168 million and a reserve build of $35 million this quarter, increasing our ACL coverage to 1.47% up from 1.43% at the end of the fourth quarter, with most of the increase directed to the general office portfolio.

我們的信用指標和整體狀況仍然穩固。淨沖銷總額為 34 個基點，環比上升 12 個基點，與持續的正常化趨勢一致。本季度我們記錄了 1.68 億美元的信貸損失準備金和 3500 萬美元的準備金，將我們的 ACL 覆蓋率從第四季度末的 1.43% 提高到 1.47%，其中大部分增加用於一般辦公室投資組合.

Our current coverage ratio is about 17 basis points stronger than our pro forma day 1 CECL reserve of 1.3%. We repurchased $400 million of common shares in the first quarter and delivered a strong CET1 ratio at the top of our target range at 10%, and our tangible book value per share is up 6% linked quarter.

我們目前的覆蓋率比我們備考的第 1 天 CECL 準備金 1.3% 高約 17 個基點。我們在第一季度回購了 4 億美元的普通股，並在我們目標範圍的頂部提供了強勁的 CET1 比率 10%，我們的每股有形賬面價值在相關季度增長了 6%。

Before I walk through the details of the results for the quarter, let me address some of the industry issues that are top of mind on Slide 6. First, we have a very strong capital base, which is one of the highest in our regional bank peer group, even if one were to include the rate-driven unrealized losses on all of our investment securities.

在詳細介紹本季度的結果之前，讓我先談談幻燈片 6 中最受關注的一些行業問題。首先，我們擁有非常強大的資本基礎，是我們地區銀行中最高的資本基礎之一同行組，即使要包括我們所有投資證券的利率驅動的未實現損失。

We have a quality deposit franchise, which has performed very well since the turbulence, which began in early March. We continue to see the benefit from all of the investments we've made since the IPO with 67% of total deposits from consumer and a well-diversified commercial portfolio with about 66% of our clients using us as their primary bank.

我們擁有優質存款專營權，自 3 月初開始的動盪以來表現非常好。我們繼續看到自首次公開募股以來我們所做的所有投資的收益，其中 67% 的總存款來自消費者，以及多元化的商業投資組合，約 66% 的客戶將我們作為他們的主要銀行。

Finally, 68% of deposits are insured or secured. Our liquidity position is quite strong with a diverse funding base, ample available liquidity, and strong risk management capabilities. In fact, our LCR level exceeds what would be required as a Category 3 bank at March 31, 2023.

最後，68% 的存款有保險或擔保。我們的流動性狀況相當強勁，擁有多元化的資金基礎、充足的可用流動性以及強大的風險管理能力。事實上，我們的 LCR 水平超過了 2023 年 3 月 31 日作為 3 類銀行的要求。

Looking at credit, our metrics continue to look solid. Retail is normalizing, but is still performing quite well as the employment picture remains strong. On the commercial side, our focus is on the CRE portfolio and on general office in particular, which is impacted by back-to-work trends and rising interest rates.

在信用方面，我們的指標繼續保持穩定。零售業正在正常化，但由於就業形勢依然強勁，因此仍然表現良好。在商業方面，我們的重點是 CRE 投資組合，尤其是一般辦公室，它們受到返工趨勢和利率上升的影響。

We have a very strong reserve coverage of 6.7% on the general office portfolio, and I'll go through some of the details later. And lastly, the market is concerned about how the regulators may respond to the disruption in March, which, in our view, was unique to the banks in question and not reflective of broader in regulation or management lapses. We'll watch closely how things develop, but in any case, we think the process will be thoughtful and deliberate.

我們在普通辦公室投資組合中有 6.7% 的非常高的準備金覆蓋率，稍後我將詳細介紹一些細節。最後，市場擔心監管機構可能如何應對 3 月份的中斷，在我們看來，這對相關銀行來說是獨一無二的，並不能反映更廣泛的監管或管理失誤。我們將密切關注事情的發展，但無論如何，我們認為這個過程將是深思熟慮的。

Finally, we believe we are well positioned for any increase in regulatory requirements, given our diverse business model and current excess capital and liquidity regulatory ratios.

最後，鑑於我們多樣化的業務模式以及當前的過剩資本和流動性監管比率，我們相信我們有能力應對監管要求的任何增加。

Let's drill into the details on the next few slides, starting with capital on Slide 7. We ended the quarter with one of the highest capital levels in our regional bank peer group with a CET1 ratio at the top of our target range of 10%. This strong capital level reflects our prudent approach to deploying capital as we prioritize driving improved returns over the medium term.

讓我們在接下來的幾張幻燈片中深入了解細節，從幻燈片 7 的資本開始。本季度結束時，我們的 CET1 比率處於我們 10% 目標範圍的頂部，是我們地區銀行同行組中資本水平最高的銀行之一。這一強勁的資本水平反映了我們謹慎的資本配置方式，因為我們優先考慮在中期推動提高回報。

If you include the rate-driven unrealized loss on debt securities and AOCI, our adjusted CET1 ratio would be 8.7%. If you remove the unrealized losses in HTM, our tangible common equity ratio would reduce by 20 basis points to 6.4%. All of these ratios are expected to be near the top of our peer group again in this quarter.

如果將利率驅動的債務證券和 AOCI 的未實現損失包括在內，我們調整後的 CET1 比率將為 8.7%。如果除去 HTM 的未實現虧損，我們的有形普通股權益比率將減少 20 個基點至 6.4%。預計本季度所有這些比率都將再次接近我們同行的最高水平。

We expect to maintain very strong capital levels going forward with the ability to generate roughly 25 basis points of capital post dividend each quarter and before share buybacks. We have $1.6 billion of repurchase capacity remaining under our current board authorization, timing of repurchases will be dependent on our view of external conditions.

我們預計未來將保持非常強勁的資本水平，能夠在每個季度和股票回購之前產生大約 25 個基點的股息後資本。根據我們目前的董事會授權，我們還有 16 億美元的回購能力，回購的時間將取決於我們對外部條件的看法。

Next, I'll move to Slide 8 to discuss our deposit franchise. As you can see, our deposit franchise is skewed towards consumer and highly diversified across product mix and in terms of the various channels we can tap. About 67% of our total deposits are consumer, up from 60% at December 31, which puts us in the top quartile of our peer group, and roughly 68% of our deposits are insured by the FDIC or secured, which is up from 60% at year-end.

接下來，我將轉到幻燈片 8 討論我們的存款特許經營權。如您所見，我們的存款專營權偏向於消費者，並且在產品組合和我們可以利用的各種渠道方面高度多樣化。我們的總存款中約有 67% 是消費者存款，高於 12 月 31 日的 60%，這使我們處於同行組的前四分之一，並且我們約 68% 的存款由 FDIC 提供保險或有擔保，高於 60% % 年末。

Demand deposits represent about 26% of the book down slightly from 27% at year-end as customers have naturally rotated towards higher-yielding alternatives. On Slide 9, the headline is that our deposit performance since midyear 2022 following the investors acquisition and the commencement of TT has been in line with industry performance.

由於客戶自然而然地轉向收益更高的替代品，活期存款約佔帳面存款的 26%，較年底時的 27% 略有下降。在幻燈片 9 上，標題是自 2022 年年中以來投資者收購和 TT 啟動後我們的存款表現與行業表現一致。

We outgrew both the industry and peer average in the second half of 2022. We entered 2023, expecting that the normal seasonal deposit outflows in the first quarter would be somewhat exacerbated by the higher rate environment. And we saw a little more of that than we had forecast by about 1% but most of that happened in January and February. Given our rundown in auto, we were willing to let some deposits run off early in the quarter, trying to hold the line on betas.

我們在 2022 年下半年的增長超過了行業和同行的平均水平。我們進入 2023 年，預計第一季度正常的季節性存款外流會因較高的利率環境而有所加劇。我們看到的情況比我們預測的多了 1% 左右，但大部分發生在 1 月和 2 月。鑑於我們在汽車業務方面的下滑，我們願意讓一些存款在本季度初流失，試圖控制貝塔值。

In March, we saw some elevated inflows and outflows as customers across the industry can look to diversify their deposits in the wake of bank failures. But overall, our deposits were broadly stable during the month. This strong performance is attributable to investing heavily in our deposit offerings and capabilities since the IPO, and this will remain a focus as we continue to build a top-performing bank franchise.

3 月份，我們看到資金流入和流出有所增加，因為整個行業的客戶都希望在銀行倒閉後分散他們的存款。但總體而言，本月我們的存款大致穩定。這種強勁的表現歸功於自首次公開募股以來對我們的存款產品和能力進行了大量投資，並且隨著我們繼續建立表現最佳的銀行特許經營權，這將仍然是一個重點。

On Slide 10, we highlight some of the things that we are doing to attract deposits and drive primacy with our customers. In Consumer, we've developed a compelling set of products and features that drive higher customer satisfaction and encourage them to do more with us. We have strong analytics capabilities and compelling offerings such as Citizens Plus in our Private Client Group as well as Citizens Access, our digital bank to leverage. And with the final conversion complete at investors, we have a substantial opportunity to take deposit share in the New York Metro Market.

在幻燈片 10 上，我們重點介紹了我們為吸引存款和推動客戶至上所做的一些事情。在消費者領域，我們開發了一套引人注目的產品和功能，可以提高客戶滿意度並鼓勵他們與我們一起做更多事情。我們擁有強大的分析能力和引人注目的產品，例如我們的私人客戶組中的 Citizens Plus 以及我們的數字銀行 Citizens Access。隨著投資者完成最終轉換，我們有大量機會在紐約地鐵市場獲得存款份額。

On the commercial side, we have invested heavily in our treasury solutions capabilities with a state-of-the-art platform and strong talent to serve client needs. We continue to add better tools for our clients to manage their cash and drive higher operational deposits as well as innovative products and capabilities to attract deposits.

在商業方面，我們通過最先進的平台和強大的人才來滿足客戶的需求，大力投資於我們的財資解決方案能力。我們繼續為我們的客戶添加更好的工具來管理他們的現金並推動更高的運營存款以及創新產品和能力來吸引存款。

Moving to Slide 11. We are monitoring the commercial real estate portfolio closely given the softening macro environment and the pressure of rising rates impacting refinance needs. The general office sector is a particular concern as tenants rethink their space needs given the remote work trends. Given these pressures, we are evaluating our loan portfolio very carefully for early signs of stress, in particular, CRE office. It's worth noting, however, that near 100% of our borrowers are current on their obligations with NPLs under 50 basis points.

轉到幻燈片 11。鑑於疲軟的宏觀環境和影響再融資需求的利率上升壓力，我們正在密切關注商業房地產投資組合。考慮到遠程工作趨勢，租戶重新考慮他們的空間需求，因此綜合辦公部門尤其令人擔憂。鑑於這些壓力，我們正在非常仔細地評估我們的貸款組合，以尋找壓力的早期跡象，尤其是 CRE 辦公室。然而，值得注意的是，我們近 100% 的借款人目前都在履行其不良貸款低於 50 個基點的義務。

We are starting to see an increase in criticized assets and have added workout resources, but given the diversity and quality of the portfolio, we feel the credit costs will be manageable. Our total CRE allowance coverage of 2% includes an elevated coverage for the general office portfolio of 6.7%.

我們開始看到受到批評的資產有所增加，並增加了鍛煉資源，但鑑於投資組合的多樣性和質量，我們認為信貸成本將是可控的。我們 2% 的 CRE 總津貼覆蓋率包括 6.7% 的普通辦公室組合的更高覆蓋率。

On Slide 12, we drilled down a bit on the $6.3 billion office portfolio, which includes $2.2 billion of credit tenant and life sciences properties, which are not as exposed to adverse back to office trends and are expected to perform quite well. The remaining $4.1 billion relates to the general office segment, which we feel is reasonably well positioned across type, geography and suburban areas and central business districts.

在幻燈片 12 上，我們深入研究了價值 63 億美元的寫字樓投資組合，其中包括價值 22 億美元的信貸租戶和生命科學資產，這些資產不會受到不利的重返辦公室趨勢的影響，預計會表現良好。剩餘的 41 億美元與綜合辦公部門有關，我們認為該部門在類型、地理、郊區和中央商務區的定位都相當不錯。

About 90% of the general office portfolio is income producing and about 70% is located in suburban areas, and the majority is Class A.

大約 90% 的普通寫字樓組合是創收的，大約 70% 位於郊區，大部分是 A 級。

Next, I'll provide further details related to first quarter results. On Slide 13, net interest income was down 3%, given lower day count, which was worth about $29 million and slightly lower interest-earning assets. The net interest margin of 3.3% was stable with the increase in asset yields offset by higher funding costs.

接下來，我將提供與第一季度業績相關的更多細節。在幻燈片 13 中，淨利息收入下降了 3%，原因是天數減少，價值約 2900 萬美元，生息資產略低。 3.3% 的淨息差保持穩定，資產收益率的上升被更高的融資成本所抵消。

With debt funds increasing 475 basis points at the end of 2021, our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta has been well controlled at 36% through the end of the quarter. We continue to dynamically adjust our hedge position so that we have down rate protection in the second half of 2023 and through 2026. As we approach the height of the rate cycle, we have managed our asset sensitivity down from roughly 3% at the end of last year to a more neutral 1.1% at the end of the first quarter.

隨著債務基金在 2021 年底增加 475 個基點，我們截至本季度末的累計計息存款貝塔值已很好地控制在 36%。我們繼續動態調整我們的對沖頭寸，以便我們在 2023 年下半年和 2026 年期間獲得利率下調保護。隨著我們接近利率週期的高峰期，我們已將資產敏感度從 2023 年末的大約 3% 下調。去年第一季度末降至更為中性的 1.1%。

Moving on to Slide 14, we posted solid fee results despite seasonality and headwinds from market volatility and higher rates. These showed some resilience amid a challenging environment, down 4% linked quarter with seasonal impacts in capital markets and service charges partly offset by strength in FX and derivatives revenue and a modest improvement in mortgage banking fees.

轉到幻燈片 14，儘管存在季節性以及市場波動和更高利率帶來的不利因素，我們仍公佈了穩健的費用結果。這些在充滿挑戰的環境中顯示出一定的彈性，與資本市場和服務費用的季節性影響相關的季度下降了 4%，部分被外彙和衍生品收入的強勁以及抵押銀行費用的適度改善所抵消。

Focusing on capital markets, market volatility continued through the quarter and syndications and M&A advisory fees were seasonally lower. We continue to see good strength in our M&A pipelines and signs that deal flow should pick up as the year progresses. Mortgage fees were slightly better with higher production fees as we are seeing volumes rising and margins improving with the industry reducing capacity. This should continue to benefit margins over time.

關注資本市場，整個季度市場波動持續，銀團和併購諮詢費用季節性下降。我們繼續看到併購管道的強勁勢頭，並且有跡象表明隨著今年的進展，交易流量應該會增加。隨著生產費用的增加，抵押貸款費用略有好轉，因為我們看到隨著行業產能下降，產量增加，利潤率提高。隨著時間的推移，這應該會繼續有利於利潤率。

And finally, card and wealth fees posted solid results for the quarter. On Slide 15, expenses came in better than expected, up only 2.8% linked quarter, given seasonally higher salaries and employee benefits as well as the impact of an industry-wide FDIC surcharge implemented at the beginning of the year.

最後，信用卡和財富管理費在本季度取得了穩健的業績。在幻燈片 15 中，支出好於預期，環比季度僅增長 2.8%，原因是工資和員工福利季節性上漲，以及年初實施的全行業 FDIC 附加費的影響。

On Slide 16, average loans were down slightly and period end loans down 1% linked quarter including the impact of planned auto runoff. We have seen commercial utilization decrease a bit over the quarter as inflation and supply chain pressures continue easing and clients are adjusting inventories to reflect this, as well as lower CapEx in anticipation of reduced economic activity.

在幻燈片 16 上，平均貸款略有下降，期末貸款環比下降 1%，其中包括計劃中的汽車停產的影響。我們看到商業利用率在本季度略有下降，因為通貨膨脹和供應鏈壓力繼續緩解，客戶正在調整庫存以反映這一點，以及因預期經濟活動減少而降低資本支出。

Average retail loans are down slightly, reflecting the planned runoff in auto, which was largely offset by growth in mortgage and home equity.

平均零售貸款略有下降，反映了計劃中的汽車貸款減少，這在很大程度上被抵押貸款和房屋淨值的增長所抵消。

On Slide 17, average deposits were down $4.7 billion or 2.6% linked quarter, driven by seasonal and rate-related outflows. As I mentioned earlier, the majority of the deposit decrease occurred in January and February, with balances broadly stable in March. Our interest-bearing deposit costs were up 51 basis points, which translates to a 73% sequential beta and a 36% cumulative beta.

在幻燈片 17 中，受季節性和與利率相關的資金流出的推動，平均存款下降 47 億美元或環比下降 2.6%。正如我之前提到的，大部分存款減少發生在 1 月和 2 月，而 3 月的餘額大致穩定。我們的計息存款成本上升了 51 個基點，這意味著 73% 的順序 beta 和 36% 的累積 beta。

Moving on to Slide 18. We saw good credit results again this quarter across the retail and commercial portfolios. Net charge-offs were 34 basis points, up 12 basis points linked quarter, which reflects continued normalization. Nonperforming loans are 64 basis points of total loans, up 4 basis points from the fourth quarter as an increase in commercial was offset by improvements in retail. Retail delinquencies were broadly stable with the fourth quarter and continue to remain favorable to historical levels, but we continue to closely monitor leading indicators to gauge how the consumer is faring.

轉到幻燈片 18。本季度我們在零售和商業投資組合中再次看到良好的信貸結果。淨註銷為 34 個基點，環比上升 12 個基點，這反映了持續正常化。不良貸款佔貸款總額的 64 個基點，比第四季度上升 4 個基點，因為商業的增長被零售的改善所抵消。第四季度零售違約率基本穩定，並繼續保持在歷史水平，但我們繼續密切關注領先指標，以衡量消費者的表現。

Turning to Slide 19, I'll walk through the drivers of the allowance this quarter. We increased our allowance by $35 million to take into account the growing risk of an economic slowdown and the outlook for losses in the commercial portfolio, particularly general office. Our overall coverage ratio stands at 1.4%, which is a 4 basis point increase from the fourth quarter.

轉到幻燈片 19，我將介紹本季度津貼的驅動因素。我們增加了 3500 萬美元的準備金，以考慮到經濟放緩的風險越來越大以及商業投資組合（尤其是一般辦公室）的損失前景。我們的總體覆蓋率為 1.4%，比第四季度增加了 4 個基點。

The current reserve level calculation contemplates a moderate recession and incorporates expectations of lower asset prices and the risk of added stress on certain portfolios such as CRE. Moving to Slide 20, we maintained excellent balance sheet strength. Our CET1 ratio increased to 10%, which is at the top end of our target range.

目前的準備金水平計算考慮了溫和的衰退，並考慮了資產價格下降的預期以及對 CRE 等某些投資組合增加壓力的風險。轉到幻燈片 20，我們保持了出色的資產負債表實力。我們的 CET1 比率增加到 10%，處於我們目標範圍的上限。

Tangible book value per share was up 6% in the quarter, and the tangible common equity ratio has improved to 6.6%. We returned a total of $605 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

本季度每股有形賬面價值增長 6%，有形普通股權益比率提高至 6.6%。我們通過股票回購和派息共向股東返還了 6.05 億美元。

Shifting gears a bit, on Slide 21, we continue to make good progress with our push into the New York metro market. We were very excited to complete the branch and systems conversion at Investors in February, which went very smoothly. With that behind us, we are full steam ahead working to serve our customers and capitalize on opportunities to capture market share.

稍微換檔，在幻燈片 21 上，我們在進軍紐約地鐵市場方面繼續取得良好進展。我們很高興在 2 月份完成了 Investors 的分支和系統轉換，非常順利。有了這些，我們將全速前進，努力為我們的客戶服務，並利用機會佔領市場份額。

We continue to be encouraged by the strong early momentum we are seeing in the branches where customer satisfaction has been improving significantly, and we continue to see some of the highest customer acquisition and sales rates in our network across the legacy HSBC and Investors branches. We've also seen some good early client wins and a growing pipeline in commercial.

我們繼續為我們在客戶滿意度顯著提高的分支機構中看到的強勁早期勢頭感到鼓舞，並且我們繼續看到我們在傳統匯豐銀行和投資者分支機構的網絡中的一些最高客戶獲取和銷售率。我們還看到了一些良好的早期客戶勝利和不斷增長的商業渠道。

We look forward to making further strides as we leverage the full power of our product lineup and customer-focused retail and small business model across the New York market.

我們期待在充分利用我們在紐約市場的產品陣容和以客戶為中心的零售和小型企業模式的同時，取得更大的進步。

Moving to Slide 22 for a quick update on our TOP 8 program. Our latest TOP program is well underway and progressing well. Given the external environment, we have begun to look for opportunities to augment our TOP 8 program in order to protect returns as well as ensure that we can continue to make the important investments in our business to drive future performance. We'll have more to say about this in the coming months.

轉到幻燈片 22 快速更新我們的 TOP 8 計劃。我們最新的 TOP 計劃正在順利進行並進展順利。鑑於外部環境，我們已開始尋找機會擴大我們的 TOP 8 計劃，以保護回報並確保我們能夠繼續對我們的業務進行重要投資以推動未來的業績。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將對此有更多話要說。

Moving to Slide 23. I'll walk through the outlook for the second quarter and give you an update on our outlook for the full year that takes into account a modest economic slowdown with the Fed expected to raise rates by 25 basis points in May, and then begin easing late in the year.

轉到幻燈片 23。我將介紹第二季度的前景，並向您介紹我們全年的最新展望，其中考慮到經濟溫和放緩，美聯儲預計將在 5 月加息 25 個基點，然後在年底開始放鬆。

For the second quarter, we expect NII to decrease about 3%. Noninterest income is up mid- to high-single digits. Noninterest expense should be stable to down slightly. Net charge-offs should remain in the mid-30s basis points. Our CET1 is expected to come in above 10% with some share repurchase planning depending upon our view of the external environment.

對於第二季度，我們預計 NII 將下降約 3%。非利息收入上升到中高個位數。非利息支出應該穩定到略有下降。淨註銷應保持在 30 多個基點左右。我們的 CET1 預計將超過 10%，並根據我們對外部環境的看法進行一些股票回購計劃。

Moving to Slide 24. As we think about the full year, we remain focused on maintaining strong capital, liquidity and funding position while sustaining attractive returns. Of course, there is a continued level of uncertainty in the current environment. For the full year 2023, we expect NII to be up 5% to 7%. We are focused on initiatives that will stabilize and even grow our deposits modestly from first quarter levels over the remainder of the year.

轉到幻燈片 24。考慮到全年，我們仍然專注於保持強勁的資本、流動性和資金狀況，同時保持有吸引力的回報。當然，當前環境中仍存在一定程度的不確定性。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計 NII 將增長 5% 至 7%。我們專注於在今年剩餘時間內穩定甚至從第一季度的水平適度增加我們的存款的舉措。

Noninterest income is expected to be up mid-single digits. Noninterest expense is expected to be up about 5%. Net charge-offs are expected to be in the mid- to high 30s basis points. Our current reserve level contemplates a moderate recession and known risks and there should be less of a need for further reserve builds given anticipated spot loan decline for the year as auto runs down, and our CET1 ratio is expected to be above the upper end of our 9.5% to 10% target range, at 10% to 10.25% assuming stable market conditions, our share repurchases are expected to build over the course of the year.

非利息收入預計將達到中等個位數。非利息支出預計將增長約 5%。預計淨沖銷將在 30 個基點的中高點。我們目前的準備金水平考慮了適度衰退和已知風險，鑑於預計今年因汽車用量減少而導致的即期貸款下降，我們應該不會需要進一步增加準備金，而且我們的 CET1 比率預計將高於我們的上限9.5% 至 10% 的目標範圍，在 10% 至 10.25% 假設市場條件穩定的情況下，我們的股票回購預計將在今年內增加。

To sum up on Slide 25, we delivered a solid quarter despite unexpected challenges and are ready for the uncertainty that lies ahead in 2023. Our strong capital, liquidity, and funding position will serve us well to move forward with our strategic priorities and deliver attractive returns this year as we balance the need for strong defense with the imperative of continuing to play prudent offense to strengthen the franchise for the future. Even as we navigate through the current challenging environment, we reaffirm our commitment to our medium-term financial targets. With that, I'll hand back over to Bruce.

總結幻燈片 25，儘管遇到了意想不到的挑戰，我們還是實現了穩健的季度表現，並為 2023 年的不確定性做好了準備。我們強大的資本、流動性和資金狀況將有助於我們推進戰略重點，並提供有吸引力的產品今年回歸，因為我們需要平衡強大的防守與繼續謹慎進攻以加強球隊未來的必要性。即使我們在當前充滿挑戰的環境中前行，我們也重申我們對中期財務目標的承諾。有了這個，我將交還給布魯斯。

Okay. Thank you, John. Alan, let's open it up for some Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，約翰。艾倫，讓我們打開它進行一些問答。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question will come from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

As we contemplate your original net interest income guide, of 11% to 14%, now up 5% to 7%, could you walk us through what the major changes are in assumptions? And how much of it was cyclical, such as deposit runoff, higher beta? And how much of it could be a little bit more structural as you anticipate the different rules such as carrying higher liquidity funded by wholesale funding?

當我們考慮您最初的淨利息收入指南時，從 11% 到 14%，現在上升了 5% 到 7%，您能告訴我們假設的主要變化是什麼嗎？其中有多少是周期性的，例如存款流失、更高的貝塔係數？當您預期不同的規則（例如由批發資金提供更高的流動性）時，其中有多少可能更具結構性？

Yes. Let me start, and I'll quickly flip it to John. But I would say, Erika, that really we're just recognizing what we've seen on -- in the deposit markets and the cost of deposits is going up. I think that was partly a response to kind of the Fed rapid rises and money funds becoming alternatives. So there was, I think, a greater sensitivity around earning a return on cash that kicked in.

是的。讓我開始吧，我會很快將它交給 John。但我要說，埃里卡，我們真的只是認識到我們所看到的——在存款市場上，存款成本正在上升。我認為這在一定程度上是對美聯儲快速加息和貨幣基金成為替代品的回應。因此，我認為，對獲得現金回報的敏感性更高。

And then that was, I think, further exacerbated by the bank failures in March. And so I think there was kind of heightened velocity of deposits moving around the system. And so to retain those deposits, folks had to increase rate paid. We feel that we did a pretty good job here. We came into the year expecting that there'd be some seasonal outflows in Q1. And since we had built deposits in the second half of the year, and then we had auto running down, so less volume on the asset side, we were prepared to let those run down by about 3.5% in the quarter.

我認為，3 月份的銀行倒閉進一步加劇了這種情況。因此，我認為存款在系統中移動的速度有所加快。因此，為了保留這些存款，人們不得不提高支付利率。我們覺得我們在這裡做得很好。我們進入這一年時預計第一季度會有一些季節性資金外流。由於我們在下半年建立了存款，然後我們的汽車減少了，所以資產方面的交易量減少了，我們準備讓這些在本季度減少約 3.5%。

We actually saw about 1% higher than that in the runoff. But in any case, we tried to hold the line on betas. And I think the betas that we posted are slightly better than peers that have reported at this point. So -- but if you kind of play out the rest of the year, we're going to be paying more for our funding than we thought coming into the year. And that's pretty much the big driver.

我們實際上看到比決選高出約 1%。但無論如何，我們試圖在測試版上堅持下去。而且我認為我們發布的測試版比此時報告的同行略好。所以——但如果你在今年餘下的時間裡玩完，我們將為今年的資金支付比我們想像的更多的錢。這幾乎是最大的驅動力。

I would say there might be kind of a little more discipline in terms of who we're extending credit to, given I think probably a higher likelihood that we could see a shortened shallow recession. So there might be a little volume impact there from slightly lower earning assets. And maybe there's a little mix where we're holding a little precautionary cash. But if I had to kind of put it in order, I would say, number 1 is the cost of deposits and maybe slightly the volume on assets. And then thirdly would be composition. So John, I'll flip it to you.

我想說的是，在我們向誰提供信貸方面可能會有更多的紀律，因為我認為我們看到縮短的淺度衰退的可能性可能更高。因此，收益略低的資產可能會對銷量產生一些影響。也許我們持有一些預防性現金的情況有點複雜。但如果我不得不把它整理一下，我會說，第一是存款成本，也許略微是資產的數量。第三是作曲。約翰，我會轉給你。

Yes, (inaudible) those are the right points to focus on. I'd say you break it down, Erika, between rate and volume on the rate side, as you heard from Bruce, we have the migration from a deposit standpoint, you're going to see the full year effect of that, of what's happened over the last quarter or 2. And the drivers of that are well documented. We've got the cycle with higher rates and quantitative tightening going on that's causing those forces to kind of hit us.

是的，（聽不清）這些是需要關注的正確點。我想說你把它分解，Erika，在利率方面的利率和交易量之間，正如你從 Bruce 那裡聽到的那樣，我們從存款的角度進行了遷移，你將看到它的全年影響，什麼是發生在上個季度或 2 個季度。其驅動因素有據可查。我們已經進入了利率上升和量化緊縮的周期，這導致這些力量對我們造成了一定程度的打擊。

I would also say that beta move up a bit more than maybe we had planned given the outlook. So we were, I think, in the high 30s prior, maybe we're in the low 40s through the cycle. So we're building that in. You also mentioned that from a liquidity standpoint, I think we feel very good about that. From that, we are already compliant. If we had -- if we were a Category 3 bank, we're already compliant on the LCR. But from a volume standpoint, we are in rundown in auto, we're looking at some balance sheet optimization initiatives in commercial.

我還要說，考慮到前景，Beta 可能比我們計劃的要高一些。所以我認為，我們在之前的 30 多歲，也許我們在整個週期中處於 40 多歲。所以我們正在構建它。你還提到從流動性的角度來看，我認為我們對此感覺非常好。由此看來，我們已經合規了。如果我們有 - 如果我們是第 3 類銀行，我們已經符合 LCR。但從數量的角度來看，我們在汽車方面處於破敗狀態，我們正在研究商業領域的一些資產負債表優化計劃。

And so you'll see the LDR fall throughout the rest of the year. And then finally, I would say that the other things I look at on the positive side, I mean, our loan betas are from a cumulative standpoint will still exceed cumulatively where we're coming out on deposits. So you'll see that mid- to upper 40s on loans versus the the low 40s on deposits. You got front book, back book when the Fed finally kind of pauses and starts to cut. You'll see a lot of the balance sheet continue to contribute over the quarters post maybe a possible pause and cut that the Fed may kind of engage in. So lots to...

因此，您會看到 LDR 在今年餘下時間下降。最後，我想說的是，我從積極的方面來看的其他事情，我的意思是，從累積的角度來看，我們的貸款貝塔值仍將累積地超過我們的存款。所以你會看到 40 多歲的中上層貸款與 40 多歲的低存款。當美聯儲終於暫停並開始削減時，你得到了前面的書，後面的書。你會看到很多資產負債表在幾個季度後繼續做出貢獻，也許美聯儲可能會暫停和削減。所以很多......

You might have add too, John, about the swaps that we continue to dynamically recalibrate the swaps to provide protection for the event that the Fed ultimately moves lower.

約翰，你可能也補充了我們繼續動態重新校準掉期的掉期，以便為美聯儲最終走低的事件提供保護。

Yes. I think it's a really good point. I mean when you think that's that what we're just talking about is the '23 sort of story. I mean when you get into the end of '23 into '24, this cycle compared to last cycle, we have a lot more down rate protection in place for the second half of '23 and into '24 than we might have had in prior cycles. So if you notice where...

是的。我認為這是一個非常好的觀點。我的意思是當你認為那是我們剛剛談論的是 23 年代的故事。我的意思是，當你進入 23 年底到 24 年時，這個週期與上一個週期相比，我們為 23 年下半年和 24 年提供了比之前更多的降價保護週期。所以如果你注意到哪裡...

This will help support a good guide for '24. And I guess just to close this off, Erika, I would say, if you look at the outlook for the year, kind of the one thing that got marked down was really NII. We still feel pretty good about the fee outlook. We're going to work a little harder on expenses and probably bring that in below where we thought coming into the year.

這將有助於支持 '24 的良好指南。我想只是為了結束這個，埃里卡，我會說，如果你看看今年的前景，那麼被標記的一件事真的是 NII。我們仍然對費用前景感到滿意。我們將在支出方面更加努力，並可能將其降低到我們認為進入今年的水平以下。

I'd say credit provisioning should be about kind of where we thought coming into the year. We're still angling to repurchase shares over the course of the year. So our expectation is that we can continue to deliver return on tangible equity in the kind of mid-teen area and just reflective that it won't make quite as much net interest income this year, but still investing in the things to position us to have a good kind of runway into 2024.

我想說信貸供應應該是我們認為進入這一年的地方。我們仍在尋求在這一年中回購股票。因此，我們的期望是，我們可以繼續在中等水平的地區提供有形股本回報，並反映出今年它不會獲得那麼多的淨利息收入，但仍在投資於使我們能夠定位的東西有一個很好的跑道進入 2024 年。

I'll let one of my peers ask more detail on the swap recalibration because I think that's important as we think about NII for '24, but since we have you, Bruce, I want to ask you about how you're thinking about these anticipated regulatory changes for regional banks. I think that -- I'm glad that you said in the prepared remarks that it takes time, right? You have the NPR, which could come out end of the year or a year from now, a year comment period has been a phase-in, so as we think about what the market is anticipating, whether it's TLAC or getting rid of opt out on AOCI, and of course, you said you're already LCR compliant.

我會讓我的一位同行詢問有關交換重新校準的更多細節，因為我認為這很重要，因為我們考慮了 24 年的 NII，但既然我們有你，Bruce，我想問你你是如何考慮這些的區域銀行的預期監管變化。我認為 - 我很高興你在準備好的發言中說這需要時間，對吧？你有 NPR，它可能會在今年年底或一年後發布，一年的評論期已經逐步實施，所以當我們考慮市場的預期時，無論是 TLAC 還是擺脫選擇退出在 AOCI 上，當然，您說您已經符合 LCR 標準。

How are you thinking about managing your capital relative to your stock down at time, right? So it seems like banks can ever buy back as much at the time when they should be buying back and the potential in '24 for some nonbanks to be in bigger trouble and potentially taking market share, but balancing that with what's going to be potentially tighter requirements on capital and liquidity. How much are you front-loading that versus thinking about the opportunities that can come your way if you remain as profitable as you say you're going to remain?

你是如何考慮管理你的資本相對於你的股票的時間，對嗎？因此，銀行似乎可以在他們應該回購的時候回購盡可能多的東西，而在 24 世紀，一些非銀行機構可能會遇到更大的麻煩並可能佔據市場份額，但要平衡這一點與可能會收緊的情況對資本和流動性的要求。如果你像你說的那樣保持盈利，你會提前考慮多少機會？

Yes. Great question. And I guess just to set the big picture, Erika, that I would say, first off, I don't believe that the answer to the 2 bank failures is more regulation on regional banks. I think those were idiosyncratic situations, and there was sufficient regulation. So you basically had business models that were not well diversified and the banks grew too fast and stretch management capabilities. The supervisors didn't really do their job. And so I think there'll be a thoughtful review of what were the issues and then how to address them.

是的。很好的問題。我想只是為了設定大局，埃里卡，我想說的是，首先，我不認為 2 家銀行倒閉的答案是對區域性銀行進行更多監管。我認為那些是特殊情況，並且有足夠的監管。所以你的商業模式基本上沒有很好地多元化，銀行增長太快，管理能力過剩。主管們並沒有真正做好他們的工作。因此，我認為將對問題是什麼以及如何解決這些問題進行深思熟慮的審查。

I think it's probable that there will be some tightening around liquidity and capital and probably closer reviews of how banks are handling their asset liability management. There may be other aspects of this in terms of the overnight repo facility and creating a kind of viable drain on bank deposits in the money funds and should they change that and deposit insurance and should they take a look at that. So there's a bunch of things that I think will come under review.

我認為流動性和資本可能會有所收緊，並且可能會更密切地審查銀行如何處理其資產負債管理。就隔夜回購便利而言，這可能還有其他方面，並在貨幣基金中創造一種可行的銀行存款消耗，他們是否應該改變它和存款保險，他們是否應該看看它。所以我認為有很多事情會受到審查。

Specifically, with respect to us, I think the good news is that we've managed our capital at the high end of our peer group. And so we're already compliant. We would be if we ended up having the AOCI filter removed, we'd be in compliance today, the same thing John pointed out, the LCR. We've run that at a high level. We won very rigorous internal liquidity stress testing regimen that we'd already be in compliance with the Category 3 bank as well. So the fact that we have managed the balance sheet conservatively, we're already in compliance if they go kind of heavier regulation if it ends up going down that path, I think we're in good position.

具體來說，就我們而言，我認為好消息是我們在同行集團的高端管理我們的資本。所以我們已經合規了。如果我們最終刪除了 AOCI 過濾器，我們今天就會合規，就像約翰指出的 LCR 一樣。我們已經在高水平上運行了它。我們贏得了非常嚴格的內部流動性壓力測試方案，我們也已經符合第 3 類銀行的要求。因此，事實上我們保守地管理了資產負債表，如果他們最終沿著這條路走下去，我們已經遵守了某種更嚴格的監管，我認為我們處於有利地位。

So I think we will have and the fact that these will be phased in over kind of, I'd say, 2 or 3 years gives us lots of capital flexibility to be buying back our stock or taking advantage of other situations where that could arise. And if it's strategically and financially compelling, I think we have the capability to go on offense. So anyway, that's kind of my thoughts on that, it was good to kind of stay conservative even when we had lots of questions as to why aren't you leveraging your capital structure more where you're keeping your CET1 target so high. Guess what? We keep it that way, and we run conservative for precisely these air pockets that you're always going to experience turbulence and high capital and high liquidity is your best friend in these circumstances.

所以我認為我們將會有，而且這些將在大約 2 或 3 年內分階段實施的事實為我們提供了很大的資本靈活性，可以回購我們的股票或利用可能出現的其他情況.如果它在戰略和財務上具有吸引力，我認為我們有能力繼續進攻。所以無論如何，這就是我的想法，即使我們有很多問題，為什麼你不更多地利用你的資本結構來保持你的 CET1 目標如此之高，保持保守是件好事。你猜怎麼了？我們保持這種方式，並且我們對這些你總是會經歷動盪和高資本和高流動性的氣穴採取保守的態度是在這些情況下你最好的朋友。

Your next question will come from the line of Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson.

你的下一個問題將來自 Peter Winter with D.A.戴維森。

I wanted to just follow up on Erika's question on the NII guide. I was wondering could you be a little bit more specific on the outlook for margin and loan trends going forward?

我只想跟進 Erika 關於 NII 指南的問題。我想知道您能否更具體地說明未來保證金和貸款趨勢的前景？

Yes, go ahead, and get started on that. So the guide being up 5% to 7%, what we built into that, as we mentioned, is the fact that we're going to have some downward kind of impact on margin coming from the deposit migration as well as increased beta assumptions that we're building in.

是的，繼續吧，開始吧。因此，指南上升了 5% 到 7%，正如我們提到的，我們在其中構建的事實是，我們將對來自存款遷移的保證金產生一些向下的影響，以及增加的 beta 假設我們正在建造。

So there's a lot of uncertainty here and a lot of things to play out. But to try to frame it a little bit, go out to -- if you think about where we may in 4Q '23 where we may end the year, we're starting the year at 330. We may end the year, call it, in a wide range, maybe 310 to 320. And if things kind of -- if there's good execution and some trends maybe end up going our way, we'll end up at the high end of that range, and vice versa on the lower end.

所以這裡有很多不確定性，還有很多事情要做。但是，為了稍微構想一下，出去——如果你想一想我們可能在 23 年第四季度的什麼地方結束這一年，我們將以 330 開始新的一年。我們可能會在今年結束，稱它為，在一個很寬的範圍內，可能是 310 到 320。如果事情有點——如果有良好的執行力並且一些趨勢可能最終會按照我們的方式發展，我們將最終達到該範圍的高端，反之亦然低端。

And then so I'd say that when you think about playing it out throughout the year, there will be a step down as you work through the year with maybe a little bit of weighting into 2Q and things basically flattening out into the second half of the year. But like I said, there's a lot of uncertainty there. And -- but that helps, hopefully, that will help give you a frame. And then you've got, as we mentioned, on the volume side of things, we do have the auto rundown, which we began last year that will be -- is built into that guide as well as the ongoing work that we're doing in commercial and balance sheet optimization. So you put all that together, then that gives you the NII guide.

然後我想說的是，當你考慮全年進行時，你會在全年工作時有所下降，可能會稍微重視第二季度，而事情基本上會在下半年趨於平緩那一年。但就像我說的，那裡有很多不確定性。並且 - 但希望這會有所幫助，這將有助於為您提供一個框架。然後你有，正如我們提到的，在數量方面，我們確實有自動減少，我們從去年開始，它將被納入該指南以及我們正在進行的工作中從事商業和資產負債表優化。所以你把所有這些放在一起，然後就給了你 NII 指南。

I would just add to that, a good answer, John, that this is an opportunity. We've always been on a balance sheet optimization path. But I think we're really intensifying our focus there. So businesses like indirect auto where it was a good place to kind of part liquidity and we run the business well. We service it very well. But -- it's not really that strategically important to us. It doesn't have direct customers that we cross-sell to because those customers, frankly, are customers of the dealerships. So looking hard at those business and say, if deposits are more dear, what do we have on the left side of our balance sheet where we don't have deep relationships, and we're not making the best risk-adjusted returns.

我只想補充一點，一個很好的答案，約翰，這是一個機會。我們一直在優化資產負債表。但我認為我們確實在加強對那裡的關注。所以像間接汽車這樣的企業是提供部分流動性的好地方，我們經營得很好。我們服務很好。但是——這對我們來說並不是那麼重要。它沒有我們交叉銷售的直接客戶，因為坦率地說，這些客戶是經銷商的客戶。因此，仔細研究這些業務並說，如果存款更昂貴，我們在資產負債表的左側有什麼我們沒有深厚的關係，我們沒有獲得最佳的風險調整後回報。

And so during this year, I think we're going to really focus on making sure that the right side of the balance sheet in terms of deposit quality is as strong as it possibly can be and that where we're lending money we're doing that to true customers that we have deep relationships, whether they're consumers, small business or commercial. And so we'll take the opportunity this year to potentially have a little bit of a reset and even intensify those efforts. So we'll really love our balance sheet going into 2024.

因此，在今年，我認為我們將真正專注於確保資產負債表的右側在存款質量方面盡可能強勁，並確保我們放貸的地方對我們有深厚關係的真正客戶這樣做，無論他們是消費者、小企業還是商業。因此，我們今年藉此機會可能會進行一些重置，甚至會加強這些努力。所以我們會非常喜歡我們進入 2024 年的資產負債表。

Got it. And if I could just ask about deposits, the outlook, I recognize deposits stabilized in March, and you've done a lot of work to improve the deposit franchise. But it just seems like in this environment, to keep deposits stable to growing deposits from here could be a little bit of a challenge, not only for you. And I was wondering if you could just give some color on some of the deposit opportunities.

知道了。如果我可以問一下存款，前景，我承認存款在 3 月份穩定下來，你已經做了很多工作來改善存款特許經營權。但在這種環境下，保持存款穩定到存款增長可能有點挑戰，不僅對你來說。我想知道你是否可以給一些存款機會一些顏色。

Yes. Why don't I stop at the -- start at the top, and then maybe I'll turn it to Brendan and Don to talk about what we're doing in consumer and commercial. We did put a slide in there Peter about some of those opportunities. And so I think that right now, we just need to kind of get through this earnings season and see the cards turned over and continue to trend, hopefully, of less and less turbulence and getting back to a more calm situation.

是的。為什麼我不停止——從頂部開始，然後也許我會把它交給布倫丹和唐來談談我們在消費者和商業領域所做的事情。我們確實在 Peter 那裡放了一張關於其中一些機會的幻燈片。所以我認為，現在，我們只需要度過這個財報季，看到牌面翻過來，並繼續保持趨勢，希望動盪越來越少，回到更加平靜的局面。

So that's where kind of stability comes in. And by the way, through -- halfway through April, we're still kind of trending stable to even slightly up. But then the initiatives that we have long invested in and the value propositions that we have both for consumer and some of the new innovation we have on the commercial side, we think should start to play out, and then we can start to build back deposits. But why don't I first turn it to Brendan to talk about consumer.

所以這就是穩定性的來源。順便說一下，到 4 月中旬，我們仍然保持穩定甚至略微上升的趨勢。但隨後我們長期投資的舉措以及我們對消費者的價值主張以及我們在商業方面的一些新創新，我們認為應該開始發揮作用，然後我們就可以開始建立回存存款.但為什麼我不先讓布倫丹談談消費者呢？

Yes. Thanks. So the consumer -- in the consumer business, you've got sort of kind of 3 segments of deposits, the traditional retail, Wealth Management and then small business. And it's kind of progressing as expected, as it's been chatting mode over the last couple of quarters. We certainly have customers coming into the cycle that have excess deposits and liquidity from pre-COVID.

是的。謝謝。所以消費者——在消費者業務中，你有 3 個存款部分，傳統零售、財富管理和小企業。它的進展有點像預期的那樣，因為它在過去幾個季度一直處於聊天模式。我們當然有客戶進入周期，他們在 COVID 之前擁有過多的存款和流動性。

We're seeing very, very small earn down rates, but nothing that is unexpected. And broadly right in line with trends from mid-summer last year through this quarter. As John pointed out, through March, on all 3 of those portfolios, we saw 60% to 75% increase in inflows, but the same sort of increase on outflows broadly just moving money around it.

我們看到非常非常小的收入下降率，但沒有什麼是出乎意料的。並且與去年仲夏到本季度的趨勢大體一致。正如 John 指出的那樣，到 3 月份，在所有這 3 個投資組合中，我們看到流入量增加了 60% 到 75%，但流出量也出現了同樣的增長，只是資金圍繞它流動。

So we were very stable on net balances across those businesses through the month of March. We feel really good about the underlying health. Over the last 8 years, we've invested a lot of time and energy in making our consumer deposit base much more granular. Our primacy rates, so whether customers consider us a primary bank or not is up dramatically to above peer levels. That's a good thing. That means stability in low-cost deposits when payroll is coming in.

因此，截至 3 月份，我們這些業務的淨餘額非常穩定。我們對潛在的健康狀況感覺非常好。在過去的 8 年裡，我們投入了大量時間和精力來使我們的消費者存款基礎更加精細。我們的首要利率，因此無論客戶是否認為我們是主要銀行，都大大高於同行水平。這是好事。這意味著工資發放時低成本存款的穩定性。

We've done things like added benefits like early pay for consumers, which is an encouragement to bring payroll and direct deposit over that's going quite well adds more granularity and stability of the deposit base. So when I look at levers, to continue to have strong deposit performance for the rest of the year.

我們已經做了一些事情，比如為消費者提早付款等額外福利，這是一種鼓勵將工資單和直接存款放在進展順利的基礎上，增加了存款基礎的粒度和穩定性。因此，當我看槓桿時，在今年餘下的時間裡繼續保持強勁的存款表現。

There's a couple of things in the consumer bank that we're really, really focused on. One, John mentioned New York City, New Jersey, household growth, getting more customers, that is going well. We're performing at the top end of our peer set in terms of net market share gain and household growth.

消費者銀行中有幾件事是我們真正非常關注的。第一，約翰提到了新澤西州紐約市的家庭增長，吸引了更多的客戶，一切進展順利。在淨市場份額增長和家庭增長方面，我們的表現在同行中處於領先地位。

We expect that to continue in all of our markets. And supported by the really early momentum in New York City and New Jersey that we expect to continue. We've also made a pretty meaningful pivot into customer relationship deepening. So we've rolled out program, as Bruce mentioned, Citizens Plus, which the simple concept is you do more with us, you get more, really encouraging customers to bring more of their wallet to us. We've seen very, very strong take up on that, a 300% plus improvement in customers going into these relationship propositions, encouraged by the breadth of the offering and bringing more to us and profitability of those customers almost doubles when they migrate up. So we think that will give us a shot in the arm as customers look at us to consolidate relationships over.

我們希望這種情況會在我們所有的市場中繼續下去。並得到紐約市和新澤西州真正早期勢頭的支持，我們預計這種勢頭將繼續下去。我們還在深化客戶關係方面做出了非常有意義的轉變。所以我們推出了計劃，正如 Bruce 提到的，Citizens Plus，其簡單的概念是您與我們一起做更多，您得到更多，真正鼓勵客戶為我們帶來更多的錢包。我們已經看到非常非常強烈地接受了這一點，客戶進入這些關係主張的人數增加了 300% 以上，受到產品廣度的鼓舞，並為我們帶來更多，當他們向上遷移時，這些客戶的盈利能力幾乎翻了一番。所以我們認為，當客戶看著我們鞏固關係時，這會給我們一個機會。

And then maybe last would be Citizens Access. So -- and it gives us a great lever to raise deposits as we need it, but it also gives us a great lever to cost contain interest-bearing deposits in the consumer bank, which will allow us to have much more manageable betas in the core bank where we can focus on relationship banking, and not deposit raising for the sake of deposit raising. And when we need to contain deposit growth, we can do it in a very targeted way through Citizens Access. That's proven to be exceptionally effective for us, and we had a great quarter in growing Citizens Access here in Q1.

然後也許最後是 Citizens Access。所以 - 它為我們提供了一個很好的槓桿來根據需要增加存款，但它也為我們提供了一個很好的槓桿來控制消費銀行的生息存款成本，這將使我們能夠在核心銀行，我們可以專注於關係銀行業務，而不是為了提高存款而提高存款。當我們需要控制存款增長時，我們可以通過 Citizens Access 以非常有針對性的方式進行。事實證明，這對我們來說非常有效，我們在第一季度的 Citizens Access 增長方面表現出色。

Don?

大學教師？

Yes. So on our side, I think a lot of it surrounds the payments and treasury services business. You've heard us talk for the last couple of years about the investment we're making in that business. It has not only been around the core operating services but also a lot of work around deposit franchises and liquidity franchises, frankly.

是的。因此，在我們這邊，我認為其中很多都圍繞著支付和資金服務業務。在過去的幾年裡，您已經聽過我們談論我們對該業務的投資。坦率地說，它不僅圍繞核心運營服務，而且圍繞存款特許經營權和流動性特許經營權開展了大量工作。

One of the things we haven't talked about is we have a liquidity advisory service and the liquidity portal, which goes beyond deposits, but allows us to capture customer funds even if they are on balance sheet. And then on the deposit side, over the last couple of years, we've introduced 5 or 6 new products. We've talked about the green deposits, talked about carbon offset deposits. We've talked about escrow deposits.

我們沒有談到的一件事是我們有流動性諮詢服務和流動性門戶，它超越了存款，但允許我們獲取客戶資金，即使它們在資產負債表上。然後在存款方面，在過去的幾年裡，我們推出了 5 或 6 種新產品。我們談到了綠色存款，談到了碳抵消存款。我們已經討論過託管存款。

So the product sets quite broad. The other thing we saw during the disruptions is we added about 300 new deposit clients, a lot of which interestingly came out of the JMP franchise as they referred some of the technology customers onto our platform. Some of those are funded up. Some of those aren't funded up. But like Brendan said, the core of our franchise is really the primary core relationships and the operating relationships and about 66% of our deposit base is really with core primary relationships.

所以產品集相當廣泛。我們在中斷期間看到的另一件事是，我們增加了大約 300 個新的存款客戶，有趣的是，其中很多來自 JMP 特許經營權，因為他們將一些技術客戶推薦到我們的平台上。其中一些是有資金的。其中一些沒有資金。但正如布倫丹所說，我們特許經營的核心實際上是主要的核心關係和運營關係，我們大約 66% 的存款基礎實際上是核心主要關係。

And the last thing we're doing is we've turned the deposit business into a primary thrust sell. So where we were asking for capital markets business, when the capital markets were, we're now asking for deposits, and we're framing the deposit raise in the context and overall relationship and have gotten a very good response from a lot of our clients.

我們正在做的最後一件事是將存款業務轉變為主要推力銷售。因此，我們在尋求資本市場業務的地方，當資本市場存在時，我們現在要求存款，我們正在根據背景和整體關係來製定存款籌集計劃，並得到了我們很多人的很好回應客戶。

Your next question will come from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題將來自 Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler 的系列。

I was hoping you might be able to speak at sort of a top level about how commercial customers are behaving now with their operational deposits. Like are they keeping less in operational deposits than they would have previously and then just spreading that money across several banks, which would imply maybe you lose some, but gain some, in other words, higher churn. Maybe I thought what commercial account openings have looked like over the past month or so?

我希望你能夠在某種程度上談論商業客戶現在如何使用他們的運營存款。就像他們保留的運營存款比以前少，然後將這筆錢分散到幾家銀行，這意味著您可能會損失一些，但會獲得一些，換句話說，更高的客戶流失率。也許我在想過去一個月左右的商業開戶情況如何？

Yes. As I mentioned, we've opened about 300 new accounts over the last month, which has been encouraging. I'd say at the top end of the client base, we've seen more diversification activity. So the public companies, which had excess deposits kicking around the system, some of which were search deposits, some of those flowed out and went to other banks. And then on the flip side, some of them flowed into us as customers balance their deposit accounts, so kind of net neutral on that.

是的。正如我提到的，我們在上個月開設了大約 300 個新賬戶，這令人鼓舞。我會說在客戶群的頂端，我們看到了更多的多元化活動。因此，擁有過多存款的上市公司在系統中運轉，其中一些是搜索存款，其中一些流出並流向了其他銀行。然後在另一方面，當客戶平衡他們的存款賬戶時，其中一些流入我們，所以在這方面是淨中立的。

And then the other thing we've seen, frankly, and this is far before SVB and some of the disruption is clients are -- because the capital markets are kind of quiet and the lending markets are kind of quiet, clients are using some of their cash to fund their operations and fund CapEx. So we've seen a little bit of a drift out in terms of just utilization of excess cash balances. And then the -- I'd say the core operating deposits have stayed pretty flat. I mean people are basically toggling between ECR and deposits, if there's a toggle, but I'd say the kind of core funding of operational activities is relatively flat.

然後我們看到的另一件事，坦率地說，這遠遠早於 SVB 並且一些中斷是客戶 - 因為資本市場有點安靜，貸款市場有點安靜，客戶正在使用一些他們的現金為他們的運營提供資金並為資本支出提供資金。因此，我們看到在僅使用過剩現金餘額方面出現了一些偏差。然後——我想說核心運營存款一直保持平穩。我的意思是人們基本上在 ECR 和存款之間切換，如果有切換的話，但我想說運營活動的核心資金相對持平。

Okay. Perfect. Sorry, I had missed that 300 accounts over the last month, but I appreciate all that color. And then maybe separately, it sounds like you had some fairly constructive comments about the possibility for investment banking to recover over the course of the year, maybe in the second half. Just maybe a little more color on how you're expecting things to traject from here, please?

好的。完美的。抱歉，上個月我錯過了那 300 個帳戶，但我很欣賞所有這些顏色。然後也許單獨地，聽起來你對投資銀行業在今年，也許在下半年復甦的可能性發表了一些相當有建設性的評論。就你期望的東西從這裡開始的軌跡來說，也許有更多的顏色，好嗎？

Yes. I think we'll see. It's going to depend on what happens in the marketplace. I will say that over the last couple of weeks, we've seen a pretty strong bid in a lot of different asset classes, particularly the syndicated loan underlying asset class. So there's some signs of life in the market, whereas it was dead quiet at the beginning of the year.

是的。我想我們會看到的。這將取決於市場上發生的事情。我要說的是，在過去的幾周里，我們看到許多不同資產類別的出價相當強勁，尤其是銀團貸款基礎資產類別。因此，市場上出現了一些生機，而年初時卻一片死寂。

We're starting to see some transactions actually clear the market some and kind of -- and some get restructured in ways that are I would say not more aggressive, but more regular way from various structured transactions that were happening over the last couple of months. So good signs of life.

我們開始看到一些交易實際上在某種程度上清算了市場——有些交易以我認為不是更激進的方式進行了重組，而是從過去幾個月發生的各種結構化交易中以更常規的方式進行了重組.如此好的生命跡象。

I'd say our pitch activity and our pipelines are extremely robust. And I would come back to what I said a couple of times is in things like our M&A business, we're a middle-market investment bank. And so we play in smaller-sized transactions, say, $250 million to $1 billion, not the $5 billion to $10 billion transaction.

我會說我們的推銷活動和我們的管道非常強大。我會回到我說過幾次的事情，比如我們的併購業務，我們是一家中間市場投資銀行。因此，我們從事規模較小的交易，比如 2.5 億至 10 億美元，而不是 50 億至 100 億美元的交易。

So the financing dependency that's in a lot of our pipelines is not as difficult as it is for the mega transaction. So we think as things begin to stabilize and recover and the rate cycle begins to come to an end, we'll see activity in the second half of the year. And we're seeing that in our pipeline.

因此，我們很多管道中的融資依賴並不像大型交易那樣困難。所以我們認為，隨著情況開始穩定和復蘇，利率週期開始結束，我們將在今年下半年看到活動。我們在我們的管道中看到了這一點。

And then remember, we also have a very diverse set of capabilities now. So we're doing a lot around private equity. We're doing -- placing equity for clients into, for example, a family office or a lot of pitch activity around convertible bonds. So while some traditional full market products might not be fully back yet, we have a wide arsenal that we're actually deploying on behalf of that.

然後記住，我們現在也擁有非常多樣化的能力。因此，我們圍繞私募股權做了很多工作。我們正在做——為客戶提供股權，例如，家族辦公室或圍繞可轉換債券的大量推銷活動。因此，雖然一些傳統的全市場產品可能還沒有完全回歸，但我們有一個廣泛的武器庫，我們實際上正在代表它進行部署。

And let me just add to that as well and maybe flip it to John. But Scott, the fee guide is supported, I think, broadly not reliant just on capital markets coming back. So we have a positive outlook across card, across wealth, the cash management business, mortgage, cap market. So it's fairly broad.

讓我也補充一下，也許可以轉交給 John。但是斯科特，我認為，費用指南得到支持，廣泛地不僅僅依賴於資本市場的回歸。因此，我們對信用卡、財富、現金管理業務、抵押貸款、上限市場持樂觀態度。所以它相當廣泛。

Yes. Let me just add 1 more thing, Bruce. So if the first quarter is an indication we were down about $14 million quarter-on-quarter in syndicated finance, we were up about $13 million in our interest rate products and commodities hedging businesses. So diversification of those fee streams to Bruce's point is quite important, yes.

是的。讓我再補充一件事，布魯斯。因此，如果第一季度表明我們的銀團融資環比下降了約 1400 萬美元，那麼我們的利率產品和商品對沖業務則增長了約 1300 萬美元。因此，對 Bruce 而言，這些費用流的多樣化非常重要，是的。

Yes, just picking up on that, so I was going to make that exact point just in terms of the bond and equity diversification along with M&A and cap markets. But in terms of card, I mean, we do see some positive outlook in card as well, primarily in the credit card space, in mortgage production volumes, and margins, starting to recover a bit, and that's really good to see after quite a few quarters with headwinds there.

是的，只是接受這一點，所以我打算就債券和股票多元化以及併購和資本市場提出確切的觀點。但就信用卡而言，我的意思是，我們確實也看到了信用卡領域的一些積極前景，主要是在信用卡領域、抵押貸款產量和利潤率方面，開始有所恢復，經過相當長的一段時間後，這真的很好有幾個季度有逆風。

And so -- and then on the wealth side of things, that has just been steady for us and is continuing even early April activity has been quite strong. And so we're feeling good in the wealth space. So it's sort of diversified across 4, 5 categories in terms of what we're seeing for the 2023 outlook.

因此——然後在財富方面，這對我們來說一直很穩定，而且甚至在 4 月初的活動中都非常強勁。因此，我們在財富領域感覺良好。因此，就我們所看到的 2023 年前景而言，它在 4、5 個類別中有所不同。

Your next question will come from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC. One moment, please. We're having a technical difficulty. Mr. Cassidy, your line is open. You may proceed.

你的下一個問題將來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。稍等一會兒。我們遇到了技術難題。卡西迪先生，您的電話已開通。你可以繼續。

John, you talked about lowering the asset sensitivity of the balance sheet. Can you share with us how quickly you could take -- can take that to neutral if you wanted to as the rate environment shifts possibly towards the second half of the year? And then also the cost or the strategies you would use to do that?

約翰，你談到降低資產負債表的資產敏感性。您能否與我們分享您可以採取多快的速度 - 如果您願意，可以將其調整為中性，因為利率環境可能會轉向今年下半年？然後還有您將使用的成本或策略？

Yes. I mean, (inaudible) to think about that is we're pretty close to neutral now. And when you're down around 1%, there are a number of assumptions that go into that calculation, including deposit migration, et cetera. And so if your models are off 1 way or the other, you could easily be neutral when we think about that when we consider the fact that we have a view that the Fed may hike 1 more time and may be on hold.

是的。我的意思是，（聽不清）考慮一下我們現在非常接近中立。當你下降了 1% 左右時，計算中有許多假設，包括存款遷移等。因此，如果您的模型偏離了一種或另一種方式，那麼當我們考慮到我們認為美聯儲可能會加息 1 次並可能暫停加息這一事實時，您很容易保持中立。

But inflation -- if inflation is more persistent and stubborn, things could rise, right, from here. So we nevertheless don't try to overcook things 1 way or the other, but gradually getting back to neutral has served us well. And also you have to think about that 1% split between what's typically hedgeable and what is a little less hedgeable. And the short end is more hedgeable. So the construct of what short rate exposure is, is actually less than 100% -- I'm sorry, less than 1%. We're actually 60-40 skewed towards the short end.

但是通貨膨脹——如果通貨膨脹更加持久和頑固，事情可能會從這裡開始上升。因此，我們仍然不會嘗試以一種或另一種方式過度烹飪，但逐漸恢復中性對我們很有幫助。而且你還必須考慮通常可對沖的和不太可對沖的 1% 的比例。短端更可對沖。因此，短期利率敞口的構成實際上小於 100%——抱歉，小於 1%。我們實際上是 60-40 偏向短端。

So to close that down would not take very much at all, would be typically a shift in balance sheet outlook and/or additional (inaudible) swaps. But more broadly, we basically layered on a number of transactions to basically get our coverage for the rest of '23.

因此，關閉它根本不需要太多時間，通常是資產負債表前景的轉變和/或額外的（聽不清）掉期。但更廣泛地說，我們基本上對一些交易進行分層，以基本上覆蓋 23 年剩餘時間。

We've got about $20 billion of coverage and (inaudible) swaps for the rest of '23 and more like 26 or so for '24, and so we're sort of thinking of ourselves around neutral with protection to the downside. And I would offer up that, that will result if, in fact, the Fed does at the lower rates by a lot. We have a view that we'll end up with a trough NIM that's well above what we saw in our last cycle. So much more stable and a much more narrow corridor of net interest margin than you might have seen from us in the past.

我們有大約 200 億美元的保險和（聽不清）掉期 23 年的剩餘時間，更像是 26 年左右的 24 年，所以我們有點認為自己處於中立狀態，並有下行保護。我會提出這一點，如果美聯儲實際上以較低的利率做很多事情，那將會產生這種結果。我們認為我們最終會得到一個遠高於我們在上一個週期中看到的低谷 NIM。與您過去從我們這裡看到的相比，淨息差要穩定得多，而且要窄得多。

Very good. And Bruce, I like the branding you're doing in New York with the Giants, looking forward to the day that Citizens becomes the bank of the Yankees. But with that as a follow-up on retail, this is maybe for Brendan. You guys gave us really good detail on Slide 31 on the FICO scores. And there's a theory out there, I don't know if it's true or not, that the FICO scores have been inflated because of what we came through during the pandemic. Some people claim as much as 70 points. Do you guys buy into that theory? And if so, would you then expect maybe the behaviors of your customers to be different than what the actual FICO scores are?

非常好。布魯斯，我喜歡你在紐約與巨人隊一起做的品牌推廣，期待公民成為洋基隊銀行的那一天。但作為零售業的後續行動，這可能適合佈倫丹。你們給了我們關於 FICO 分數的 Slide 31 的非常詳細的信息。那裡有一個理論，我不知道它是否真實，因為我們在大流行期間經歷的事情，FICO 分數被誇大了。有些人聲稱高達 70 分。你們相信這個理論嗎？如果是這樣，您是否會期望客戶的行為可能與實際 FICO 分數不同？

Yes, great question. There is a theory out there that FICO scores were inflated with all the stimulus and delinquency going down really fast. The good news is our credit underwriting is fairly sophisticated. And while FICO is an input, it tends to be 1 of about 100 things that we look at, including free cash flow and a whole bunch of other different metrics in all of our businesses.

是的，很好的問題。有一種理論認為，隨著所有刺激措施和拖欠率下降得非常快，FICO 分數被誇大了。好消息是我們的信用承銷相當成熟。雖然 FICO 是一項輸入，但它往往是我們關注的大約 100 件事中的一件，包括自由現金流和我們所有業務中的一大堆其他不同指標。

And so we've taken that into account in our underwriting that the range of real FICOs versus actual printed FICOs during COVID was incorporated into all of our credit metrics as we kind of made new loans over the last 3 or 4 years. So we feel really good about that. And I think the performance is showing that we think so far, at least we got that right.

因此，我們在我們的承保中考慮到了這一點，即在過去 3 或 4 年中我們發放了新貸款，因此我們將 COVID 期間實際 FICO 與實際印刷 FICO 的範圍納入了我們所有的信用指標。所以我們對此感覺非常好。而且我認為表現表明我們認為到目前為止，至少我們是對的。

And as John pointed out, we are seeing the consumer book normalize, but both delinquency and charge-offs are still south of where they were pre-COVID, and we're not seeing an unexpected acceleration of delinquency or charge-offs given the environment really across any of the asset classes. So I know over the years, there have been questions about some of the businesses that were faster growing in consumer and unsecured like students that are Citizens Pay business, those are well under control despite the great clubs surrounding us.

正如約翰指出的那樣，我們看到消費者賬目正常化，但拖欠率和沖銷率仍低於 COVID 之前的水平，而且考慮到環境，我們沒有看到拖欠率或沖銷率意外加速真正跨越任何資產類別。所以我知道這些年來，人們對一些在消費者中增長更快且沒有保障的企業存在疑問，比如公民支付業務的學生，儘管我們周圍有很棒的俱樂部，但這些企業仍處於良好的控制之下。

So we feel really good about where we stand right now for consumer credit, given the health of the consumer and the quality of our underwriting standards. And lastly, yes, we've tightened a bunch in the last 6 to 9 months just as a cautionary measure. So as we're kind of tightening up on things like auto on just size of balance sheet around the fringes in almost every single one of our asset classes, we've made credit tightenings, not because we're seeing anything we don't like, just in an abundance of caution to make sure that we don't have any tail risk in any of the portfolios. So as everything we can see right now, we feel pretty good.

因此，考慮到消費者的健康狀況和我們承保標準的質量，我們對我們目前在消費信貸方面的立場感到非常滿意。最後，是的，我們在過去 6 到 9 個月裡收緊了一系列政策，作為一種謹慎措施。因此，當我們在幾乎每一種資產類別的邊緣資產負債表規模上收緊汽車等事物時，我們已經收緊信貸，而不是因為我們看到了我們沒有看到的任何東西就像，只是非常謹慎地確保我們在任何投資組合中都沒有任何尾部風險。因此，正如我們現在所看到的一切，我們感覺非常好。

Your next question will come from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

您的下一個問題將來自 John Pancari 與 Evercore 的合作。

On the expense side, I think, Bruce, you had alluded to potentially being able to come in below the expense expectation, the 5% expectation may be for the year as you're focusing on that given the top line pressures. Can you maybe give us a little more color there what you're looking at and how material of a potential benefit you could have on that front as you see the top line pressure building on the NII side?

在費用方面，布魯斯，我認為，你曾提到可能會低於費用預期，5% 的預期可能是今年的預期，因為你正在關注這一點，因為頂線壓力很大。你能不能給我們更多的顏色，你正在看什麼，以及當你看到 NII 方面的頂線壓力增加時，你在這方面可能有多大的潛在好處？

Yes, I'll start and flip to John. But we had -- coming into the year, we were going with a 7% guide, some of that was reflective of the HSBC and ISBC full year effects and then some was the higher FDIC premiums. We've marked that down to 5%. So clearly in recognition that we'll have some compression in the net interest income. We're going to work really hard to try to protect the bottom line. And so I think that's what we've circled at this point.

是的，我將開始並轉向約翰。但我們已經 - 進入今年，我們將採用 7% 的指導，其中一些反映了 HSBC 和 ISBC 的全年影響，然後一些是更高的 FDIC 保費。我們已將其標記為 5%。很明顯，我們將對淨利息收入進行一些壓縮。我們將非常努力地工作以保護底線。所以我認為這就是我們目前所圈出的內容。

Clearly, TOP remains an open program, and we have lots of ideas in terms of are there other things that we can kind of get working on and actually have a benefit this year. Some of them may actually have a benefit for next year. But certainly, we've got our folks taking a hard look at what else we can do on the expense side.

顯然，TOP 仍然是一個開放的計劃，我們有很多想法，關於是否有其他我們可以著手研究並在今年真正受益的事情。他們中的一些人實際上可能會在明年受益。但可以肯定的是，我們已經讓我們的員工仔細研究了我們在費用方面還能做些什麼。

But at the same time, we're trying to make sure that we protect all of the investments in our future, the important strategic initiatives across consumer and commercial, across technology and our overall client experience organization so that when the storm clouds pass, we're growing faster than peers, and we're in a good position to grow both customer base as well as our revenues. So that's the balancing act is to keep looking for efficiencies while making sure that we're prioritizing the things that really are important to future positioning, John?

但與此同時，我們正在努力確保保護我們未來的所有投資，保護消費者和商業、技術和我們整體客戶體驗組織的重要戰略舉措，以便當風暴雲過去時，我們我們的增長速度比同行快，而且我們在擴大客戶群和收入方面處於有利地位。因此，平衡的做法是繼續尋求效率，同時確保我們優先考慮對未來定位真正重要的事情，約翰？

Yes. I think that's well said. I would just add that we try to calibrate our expense base along with the revenue base that's being projected here. And so I think you could very well see an upside in TOP 8 in the coming months. We're working on that. The couple of areas that we're thinking about expanding on is the further simplification of our operating models all of our -- we've taken a look at -- a harder look at all of our third-party spend, reimagining how we operate from an automation perspective is something that structurally we've been making investments in, and we can double down on that going forward and just making sure everything we're doing is absolutely focused on our core objectives of growing a top-performing bank, generating low moderate cost deposits and investing in our customers and clients.

是的。我認為這說得好。我只想補充一點，我們會嘗試調整我們的費用基礎以及此處預測的收入基礎。因此，我認為您很可能會在未來幾個月看到前 8 名的上升空間。我們正在努力。我們正在考慮擴展的幾個領域是進一步簡化我們所有的運營模式 - 我們已經看過 - 更仔細地審視我們所有的第三方支出，重新構想我們的運營方式從自動化的角度來看，這是我們在結構上一直在投資的東西，我們可以在未來加倍努力，只是確保我們所做的一切都絕對專注於我們的核心目標，即發展一家表現最佳的銀行，產生低成本存款和投資於我們的客戶和客戶。

And so when you put a sharp eye on all of that, you often come up with opportunities to basically create additional efficiencies. And we've demonstrated that over the years. And then we're going to intensify those efforts here in the coming months.

因此，當您敏銳地關注所有這些時，您通常會發現從根本上提高效率的機會。多年來，我們已經證明了這一點。然後我們將在接下來的幾個月裡在這裡加強這些努力。

Got it. Okay. Great. And then just secondly, on the commercial real estate front, can you give us a couple of stats that you may have on that in terms of -- as you're looking at refreshing or reappraising some of the properties in office. Can you give us what you're seeing in terms of some of the value declines.

知道了。好的。偉大的。其次，在商業地產方面，你能否給我們一些你可能擁有的統計數據——因為你正在考慮更新或重新評估辦公室的一些房產。你能告訴我們你在一些價值下降方面看到的情況嗎？

We had a peer of yours indicate 15% to 20% value decline in some of the office reappraisals. And then separately, I know you indicated that you're seeing some pressure, you expect pressure on commercial real estate criticized loans. Do you have what the percentage increase was in commercial real estate criticized and what's the ratio?

我們有一位同行表示，某些辦公室的重新評估價值下降了 15% 到 20%。然後分別地，我知道你表示你看到了一些壓力，你預計商業房地產受到批評的貸款將面臨壓力。你有沒有批評商業地產的增長百分比是多少，比例是多少？

General criticized is running at about 24% for the office space. I don't have it for the overall real estate book at the time, but office is what we're very focused on. We haven't seen a lot of appraisals yet because we're not really in the restructuring mode, the ones we've seen have actually been modestly better than we expected. I don't have the exact downdraft, but our entry LTVs are around 60%. So there's a lot of cushion in our underwriting of commercial real estate. As Bruce and John said, we've really staffed up our workout teams, and we're really putting each individual property -- each individual MSA under the microscope.

辦公空間的一般批評率約為 24%。當時我沒有整體房地產書籍，但辦公室是我們非常關注的。我們還沒有看到很多評估，因為我們還沒有真正處於重組模式，我們看到的評估實際上比我們預期的要好一些。我沒有確切的下降趨勢，但我們的入門 LTV 約為 60%。因此，我們的商業地產承銷有很多緩衝。正如 Bruce 和 John 所說，我們真的已經為我們的健身團隊配備了人員，而且我們真的把每個單獨的財產——每個單獨的 MSA 放在顯微鏡下。

We're focused on maturities. In the office book, we have about 60% of the book maturing by the end of 2024. So it's not a huge amount. And we have a majority of the risk in the book swapped or fixed in terms of interest rate protection. So while we're beginning to engage client by client, remember the way -- we're very kind of focused on who we're doing business with. So client selection is very important. MSA is very important, suburban versus urban is very important. And so we think we'll have some trouble in the book, and we're going to have to restructure a lot of the transactions, it's going to be very manageable in terms of the overall loss content.

我們專注於期限。在辦公室書籍中，到 2024 年底，我們大約有 60% 的書籍到期。所以這不是一個很大的數目。我們在利率保護方面交換或固定了賬簿中的大部分風險。因此，當我們開始逐個客戶參與時，請記住這種方式——我們非常關注與我們做生意的人。所以客戶的選擇非常重要。 MSA 非常重要，郊區與城市非常重要。因此，我們認為這本書會遇到一些麻煩，我們將不得不重組很多交易，就整體損失內容而言，這將是非常易於管理的。

Due to time constraints, we will now turn the call back over to Mr. Van Saun.

由於時間限制，我們現在將電話轉回給 Van Saun 先生。

Okay. So again, thanks, everybody, for dialing in today. We appreciate your interest and your support. Have a great day. Thank you.

好的。再次感謝大家今天的撥入。感謝您的關注和支持。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude your conference call for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Teleconference Service. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議服務。您現在可以斷開連接。