Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Citizens Financial Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is [Kelly], and I'll be your operator today.

各位早上好，歡迎來到 Citizens Financial Group 第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。我叫 [Kelly]，今天我將是您的接線員。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded. Now, I will turn the call over to Kristin Silberberg, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations. Kristin, you may begin.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，正在記錄此事件。現在，我將把電話轉給投資者關係執行副總裁 Kristin Silberberg。克里斯汀，你可以開始了。

Thank you, [Kelly]. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, this morning, our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and CFO, John Woods, will provide an overview of our fourth quarter and full year results. Brendan Coughlin, Head of Consumer Banking; and Don McCree, Head of Commercial Banking, are also here to provide additional color. We will be referencing our fourth quarter and full year earnings presentation located on our Investor Relations website. After the presentation, we will be happy to take questions. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. These are outlined for your review on Page 2 of the presentation. We are also referencing non-GAAP financial measures, so it's important to review our GAAP results on Page 3 of the presentation and the reconciliations in the appendix. With that, I will hand over to Bruce.

謝謝你，[凱利]。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。首先，今天上午，我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Bruce Van Saun；首席財務官約翰·伍茲 (John Woods) 將概述我們的第四季度和全年業績。個人銀行業務主管 Brendan Coughlin；商業銀行業務負責人Don McCree也在此添彩。我們將參考位於我們的投資者關係網站上的第四季度和全年收益報告。演示結束後，我們將很樂意回答問題。我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期存在重大差異。這些已在演示文稿的第 2 頁概述，供您查看。我們還參考了非 GAAP 財務指標，因此在演示文稿第 3 頁上查看我們的 GAAP 結果和附錄中的對賬非常重要。有了這個，我將交給布魯斯。

Okay. Thanks, Kristin, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call today. We are pleased with the financial performance we delivered for the fourth quarter and the full year, and we feel well positioned to navigate through an uncertain environment in 2023. We are playing strong defense with a robust balance sheet position and highly prudent credit risk appetite. At the same time, we continue to play disciplined offense with continuing investments in our growth initiatives. We are focused on building out a prudent, sustainable growth trajectory over the medium term.

好的。謝謝，克里斯汀，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我們對第四季度和全年的財務業績感到滿意，我們認為我們有能力在 2023 年的不確定環境中渡過難關。我們正以穩健的資產負債表狀況和高度審慎的信用風險偏好進行強有力的防禦。與此同時，我們繼續有紀律地進攻，繼續投資於我們的增長計劃。我們專注於在中期建立審慎、可持續的增長軌跡。

I'll comment briefly on the financial headlines and let John take you through the details. For the quarter, our underlying EPS was $1.32. Our return on tangible common equity was 19.4%, and the efficiency ratio was 54%. Sequential operating leverage was 1% and sequential PPNR growth was 2.6%. Leading our performance was 2% sequential NII growth, reflecting NIM expansion of 5 basis points to 3.3% and relatively stable loans given the impact of a $900 million reduction in our auto portfolio. Growth was 1% ex this impact. Deposits were solid with 1% sequential growth, and our LDR remained stable at 87%.

我將簡要評論金融頭條，讓約翰帶你了解細節。本季度，我們的基本每股收益為 1.32 美元。我們的有形普通股回報率為 19.4%，效率比為 54%。環比運營槓桿為 1%，環比 PPNR 增長為 2.6%。領跑我們業績的是 2% 的 NII 環比增長，反映出 NIM 增長 5 個基點至 3.3%，並且鑑於我們汽車投資組合減少 9 億美元的影響，貸款相對穩定。除去這種影響，增長率為 1%。存款穩健，環比增長 1%，存貸比穩定在 87%。

Our fee businesses showed resilience and diversity given a challenging environment, down about 1% sequentially. A number of M&A fees pushed into Q1 and mortgage results were softer than expected. We maintained stable expenses in the quarter, and credit metrics remain good. We boosted our allowance for credit losses to 1.43% of loans, which compares with pro forma day 1 CECL levels of 1.30%. We restarted our share repurchase activity in Q4, buying $150 million of stock, and we ended the year with a CET1 ratio of 10% at the top of our targeted range. For full year 2022, we delivered underlying EPS of $4.84 and ROTCE of 16.4% as we captured the benefit of rising rates in our strengthened deposit base.

鑑於充滿挑戰的環境，我們的收費業務表現出彈性和多樣性，環比下降約 1%。許多併購費用被推入第一季度，抵押貸款結果低於預期。我們在本季度保持穩定的支出，信用指標保持良好。我們將信貸損失準備金提高到貸款的 1.43%，而第一天 CECL 水平為 1.30%。我們在第四季度重啟了股票回購活動，購買了 1.5 億美元的股票，並在年底以 10% 的 CET1 比率結束了我們的目標範圍。對於 2022 年全年，我們實現了 4.84 美元的基礎每股收益和 16.4% 的 ROTCE，因為我們在增強的存款基礎中獲得了利率上升的好處。

The results handily exceeded our beginning of year guide, which we included in the appendix of the presentation. With respect to our guidance for 2023, we assume a slowdown in economic growth to 1% for the year, 2 early Fed rate hikes and a Q4 cut and inflation getting below 3% by Q4. We project moderate loan growth, partially offset by continued runoff in our auto book of close to $3 billion. Overall, we see solid NII growth as NIM gradually rises to 3.4% over the year, a roughly 8% growth in fees given a rebound in capital markets fees over the course of the year, solid expense discipline with core expense growth ex acquisition and FDIC impacts of 3.5% to 4%.

結果輕而易舉地超過了我們的年初指南，我們將其包含在演示文稿的附錄中。關於我們對 2023 年的指引，我們假設今年經濟增長放緩至 1%，美聯儲提前兩次加息，第四季度降息，通脹率到第四季度低於 3%。我們預計貸款將適度增長，部分被我們汽車賬簿中近 30 億美元的持續流失所抵消。總體而言，我們看到 NII 穩健增長，因為 NIM 在一年中逐漸上升至 3.4%，由於資本市場費用在這一年中反彈，費用增長約 8%，支出紀律穩健，核心費用增長不包括收購和 FDIC 3.5% 至 4% 的影響。

We announced today our top 8 program, which targets $100 million in run rate benefits and about 80% of that is expense impact. Credit should be manageable with net charge-offs in the 30 to 35 basis point range, and we expect to build our ACL to 1.45% to 1.5% of loans. We expect to repurchase a meaningful amount of stock given strong profitability, modest loan growth and limited expectation for acquisitions with our CET1 ratio forecast near the high end of our 9.5% to 10% range.

我們今天宣布了我們的前 8 名計劃，其目標是 1 億美元的運行率收益，其中約 80% 是費用影響。信貸應該是可控的，淨沖銷在 30 到 35 個基點範圍內，我們預計我們的 ACL 將達到貸款的 1.45% 到 1.5%。鑑於強勁的盈利能力、溫和的貸款增長和有限的收購預期，我們預計將回購大量股票，我們的 CET1 比率預測接近 9.5% 至 10% 範圍的高端。

Capital return to shareholders should approach 100% and yield to investors of our dividends plus capital return via repurchase put TOP 12%. So all in all, a very strong year of execution and delivery for all stakeholders by Citizens in 2022, and we feel we are well positioned in 2023 to continue our journey towards becoming a top-performing bank. We continue to make good progress in executing on our strategic initiatives across consumer, commercial and the enterprise. We've transformed our deposit base and are reaping the benefits.

對股東的資本回報率應接近100%，投資者的股息收益率加上通過回購回購的資本回報率應達到TOP 12%。因此，總而言之，2022 年是 Citizens 對所有利益相關者執行和交付非常強勁的一年，我們認為我們在 2023 年處於有利地位，可以繼續我們成為表現最佳銀行的旅程。我們在執行跨消費者、商業和企業的戰略計劃方面繼續取得良好進展。我們已經改變了我們的存款基礎並正在收穫收益。

We've adjusted our interest hedging to protect against lower rates through 2025. Given the improvement in our ROTCE over time, we are raising our medium-term target to 16% to 18% from 14% to 16%. We've stayed focused on positive operating leverage. We've captured the benefit of moving to a more normal rate environment, and we still have plenty of upside in our fee businesses as market conditions improve. Exciting times for Citizens.

我們調整了利率對沖以防止利率下降到 2025 年。鑑於我們的 ROTCE 隨著時間的推移有所改善，我們將中期目標從 14% 提高到 16% 到 16%。我們一直專注於積極的經營槓桿。我們已經從轉向更正常的費率環境中獲益，隨著市場狀況的改善，我們的收費業務仍有很大的上升空間。公民的激動人心的時刻。

I'd like to end my remarks by thanking our colleagues for rising to the occasion and delivering a great effort in 2022. We know we can count on you again in the New Year. And with that, I'll turn it over to John.

最後，我想感謝我們的同事們挺身而出，在 2022 年付出了巨大的努力。我們知道在新的一年裡我們可以再次依靠你們。有了這個，我會把它交給約翰。

Thanks, Bruce, and good morning, everyone. Big picture, 2022 was a strong year for Citizens with significant delivery of strategic initiatives against the backdrop of uncertainty and volatility in the macro environment. Most notably, we closed our acquisitions of HSBC and ISBC. We captured the benefit of higher rates with strong NII and NIM, and our balance sheet and interest rate position were well managed.

謝謝，布魯斯，大家早上好。總的來說，2022 年對於 Citizens 來說是強勁的一年，在宏觀環境的不確定性和動蕩的背景下，他們實施了重大的戰略舉措。最值得注意的是，我們完成了對匯豐銀行和 ISBC 的收購。我們通過強勁的 NII 和 NIM 獲得了更高利率的好處，我們的資產負債表和利率狀況得到了很好的管理。

While fee revenues were impacted by the environment, we are very well positioned across our businesses to capitalize on the upside potential when markets normalize, particularly in capital markets. Mortgage margins and volumes should recover over time, and we are excited for the growth prospects arising from our wealth investments. We are actively managing our loan portfolio, focusing on allocating capital where we can drive deeper relationship business into 2023 and beyond.

雖然費用收入受到環境的影響，但我們在各項業務中處於非常有利的地位，可以在市場正常化時利用上行潛力，尤其是在資本市場。抵押貸款的利潤率和數量應該會隨著時間的推移而恢復，我們對財富投資帶來的增長前景感到興奮。我們正在積極管理我們的貸款組合，專注於分配資本，我們可以在 2023 年及以後推動更深層次的關係業務。

We continue to maintain good expense discipline, delivering in excess of $115 million of pretax run rate benefit through TOP 7 and generating 4.7% underlying positive operating leverage for the year and 16.4% full year ROTCE.

我們繼續保持良好的費用紀律，通過 TOP 7 提供超過 1.15 億美元的稅前運行率收益，並產生 4.7% 的年度潛在積極運營槓桿和 16.4% 的全年 ROTCE。

Let me give you the headlines for the financial results, referencing Slide 5. For the fourth quarter, we reported underlying net income of $685 million and EPS of $1.32. Our underlying ROTCE for the quarter was 19.4%. Net interest income was up 2% linked quarter with 5 basis points of margin expansion to 3.3% and relatively stable loans given a planned reduction in our auto portfolio.

讓我給你財務結果的標題，參考幻燈片 5。第四季度，我們報告的基本淨收入為 6.85 億美元，每股收益為 1.32 美元。我們本季度的基本 ROTCE 為 19.4%。淨利息收入環比增長 2%，利潤率擴大 5 個基點至 3.3%，鑑於我們計劃減少汽車投資組合，貸款相對穩定。

Period ended average loans are broadly stable linked quarter, up 1%, excluding auto runoff. We grew deposits of 1% linked quarter and our LDR was stable at 87%. Fees showed some resilience and met a challenging environment, down 1% linked quarter. We saw a modest improvement in capital markets fees driven by underwriting and M&A, but this was more than offset by a drop in mortgage fees and a CVA/DVA impact in our FX and IRP business.

期末平均貸款與環比季度大致穩定，增長 1%，不包括汽車徑流。我們的相關季度存款增長了 1%，我們的存貸比穩定在 87%。費用表現出一定的彈性，並遇到了充滿挑戰的環境，環比下降了 1%。在承銷和併購的推動下，我們看到資本市場費用略有改善，但這被抵押費用的下降以及我們的 FX 和 IRP 業務的 CVA/DVA 影響所抵消。

Expenses were broadly stable linked quarter. Overall, we delivered underlying positive operating leverage of 1% linked quarter, and our underlying efficiency ratio improved to 54.4%. Our credit metrics were good with NCOs of 22 basis points, up 3 basis points linked quarter.

相關季度費用大致穩定。總體而言，我們在相關季度實現了 1% 的基本積極運營槓桿，我們的基本效率比率提高到 54.4%。我們的信用指標良好，NCO 為 22 個基點，環比上升 3 個基點。

We recorded a provision for credit losses of $132 million and a reserve build of $44 million this quarter. Our ACL ratio stands at 1.43%, up from 1.41% at the end of the third quarter and approximately 13 basis points above our pro forma day 1 CECL adoption coverage ratio. Our tangible book value per share is up 5% linked quarter.

本季度我們記錄了 1.32 億美元的信貸損失準備金和 4400 萬美元的準備金。我們的 ACL 比率為 1.43%，高於第三季度末的 1.41%，比我們預計的第 1 天 CECL 採用覆蓋率高出約 13 個基點。我們的每股有形賬面價值環比增長 5%。

Next, I'll provide further details related to the fourth quarter results. On Slide 6, net interest income was up 2% given higher net interest margin. The net interest margin of 3.3%, was up 5 basis points. As you can see on the NIM walk on the bottom left-hand side of the slide, a healthy increase in asset yields continues to outpace funding costs, reflecting the asset sensitivity of our balance sheet. With Fed funds increasing 425 basis points since the end of 2021, our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta has been well controlled at 29% through the end of the fourth quarter.

接下來，我將提供與第四季度業績相關的更多細節。在幻燈片 6 中，由於淨息差較高，淨利息收入增長了 2%。淨息差為 3.3%，上升 5 個基點。正如您在幻燈片左下角的 NIM 步進中看到的那樣，資產收益率的健康增長繼續超過融資成本，反映了我們資產負債表的資產敏感性。隨著聯邦基金自 2021 年底以來增加了 425 個基點，我們截至第四季度末的累計計息存款貝塔已經很好地控制在 29%。

Moving on to Slide 7. We posted solid fee results despite headwinds from continued market volatility and higher rates. These were fairly stable, down 1% linked quarter with lower mortgage and FX and derivative fees, partly offset by an improvement in capital markets fees.

轉到幻燈片 7。儘管市場持續波動和利率上漲帶來不利因素，但我們公佈了穩健的費用結果。這些相當穩定，與抵押貸款、外彙和衍生品費用較低的相關季度下降了 1%，部分被資本市場費用的改善所抵消。

Focusing on capital markets. Market volatility continued through the quarter. However, underwriting and M&A advisory fees picked up. We continue to see good strength in our M&A pipelines, including several deals that were pushed into Q1. Mortgage fees were softer as the higher rate environment continued to weigh on production volumes. We are seeing pressure on volumes moderating and size of the industry reducing capacity, which should benefit margins over time.

關注資本市場。整個季度市場波動持續。然而，承銷和併購諮詢費用有所回升。我們繼續看到我們的併購渠道表現強勁，包括幾項被推入第一季度的交易。由於較高的利率環境繼續對產量造成壓力，抵押貸款費用走軟。我們看到銷量放緩和行業規模減少產能的壓力，隨著時間的推移，這應該有利於利潤率。

Servicing operating fees were stable. Card and wealth fees posted solid results for the quarter. On Slide 8, expenses were well controlled, broadly stable linked quarter. Our TOP 7 efficiency program delivered over $115 million of pretax run rate benefits by the end of the year. We are excited to announce the launch of our new TOP 8 program, and I'll cover that in a few slides.

服務運營費用穩定。銀行卡和財富管理費在本季度取得了穩健的業績。在幻燈片 8 中，費用控制良好，環比季度大致穩定。到年底，我們的 TOP 7 效率計劃提供了超過 1.15 億美元的稅前運行率收益。我們很高興地宣布推出新的 TOP 8 計劃，我將在幾張幻燈片中對此進行介紹。

On Slide 9, average and period-end loans were broadly stable linked quarter but up 1% ex auto runoff with 1% growth in commercial, reflecting demand in asset-backed financing and growth in CRE, primarily reflecting line draws and slower paydowns. We have seen commercial utilization moderate a bit over the quarter as inflation and supply chain pressures continue easing and clients are adjusting inventories to reflect this as well as lower CapEx in anticipation of the softer economy.

在幻燈片 9 中，平均和期末貸款在相關季度大致穩定，但不包括汽車貸款增長 1%，商業貸款增長 1%，反映了資產支持融資的需求和 CRE 的增長，主要反映了貸款額度和償還速度放緩。由於通貨膨脹和供應鏈壓力繼續緩解，我們看到商業利用率在本季度略有放緩，客戶正在調整庫存以反映這一點，以及因預期經濟疲軟而降低資本支出。

Average retail loans are down slightly, but up 1% ex planned runoff in auto, given growth in mortgage and home equity, which bring an opportunity for deeper relationships and better risk-adjusted returns.

考慮到抵押貸款和房屋淨值的增長，這為建立更深層次的關係和更好的風險調整後回報帶來了機會，汽車的平均零售貸款略有下降，但比計劃減少的汽車貸款增加了 1%。

On Slide 10, average deposits were up $1.4 billion or 1% linked quarter, with growth primarily coming from term deposits, money market accounts and Citizens Access savings. Overall, commercial banking deposits were up 2.4% and consumer banking deposits were broadly stable. We feel good about how we are optimizing deposit costs in this rate environment. Our interest-bearing deposit costs were up 67 basis points, which translates to a 29% cumulative beta, broadly consistent with our expectations.

在幻燈片 10 中，平均存款增加了 14 億美元或 1% 的相關季度，增長主要來自定期存款、貨幣市場賬戶和 Citizens Access 儲蓄。總體而言，商業銀行存款增長 2.4%，消費銀行存款基本穩定。我們對在這種利率環境下如何優化存款成本感到滿意。我們的計息存款成本上升了 67 個基點，相當於 29% 的累積貝塔係數，與我們的預期基本一致。

We began the rate cycle with a strong liquidity and funding profile including significant improvements through our deposit mix and capabilities. We achieved overall deposit growth this quarter, and we will continue to optimize our deposit base and to invest in our capabilities to attract durable customer deposits. Overall liquidity remains strong as we reduced our FHLB advances by $1.3 billion and increased our cash position at quarter end. Our period-end LDR improved slightly to 86.7%.

我們以強勁的流動性和資金狀況開始了利率週期，包括通過我們的存款組合和能力進行的重大改進。本季度我們實現了整體存款增長，我們將繼續優化我們的存款基礎並投資於我們吸引持久客戶存款的能力。由於我們將 FHLB 預付款減少了 13 億美元並在季度末增加了現金頭寸，因此整體流動性依然強勁。我們的期末存貸比略有改善至 86.7%。

Moving on to Slide 11. We saw a good credit results again this quarter across the retail and commercial portfolios. Net charge-offs were 22 basis points, up 3 basis points linked quarter, which is still low relative to historical levels. Nonperforming loans are 60 basis points of total loans, up 5 basis points from the third quarter, given an increase in commercial, largely in CRE.

轉到幻燈片 11。本季度我們在零售和商業投資組合中再次看到良好的信貸結果。淨註銷為 22 個基點，環比上升 3 個基點，仍低於歷史水平。不良貸款佔總貸款的 60 個基點，比第三季度上升 5 個基點，原因是商業貸款（主要是 CRE）有所增加。

Retail delinquencies continue to remain favorable to historical levels but we continue to closely monitor leading indicators to gauge how the consumers vary. Although personal disposable income remains strong, debt service as a percentage of disposable income has essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels while consumer confidence has stabilized as inflation has eased.

零售違約率繼續保持歷史水平，但我們繼續密切關注領先指標，以衡量消費者的變化情況。儘管個人可支配收入依然強勁，但償債佔可支配收入的百分比已基本恢復到大流行前的水平，而消費者信心隨著通脹放緩而趨於穩定。

Turning to Slide 12, I'll walk through the drivers of the allowance this quarter. While our current credit metrics are good, we increased our allowance by $44 million to take into account the growing risk of an economic slowdown. Our overall coverage ratio stands at 1.43%, which is a modest increase from the third quarter. The current reserve level contemplates a moderate recession and incorporates expectations of lower asset prices and the risk of added stress on certain portfolios, including those subject to higher risk from inflation, supply chain issues, higher interest rates and return to office trends. Given these pressures, we are watching our loan portfolio very carefully for early signs of stress, in particular, CRE office. Back on Slide 32 in the appendix, we have provided some additional information about the CRE portfolio.

轉到幻燈片 12，我將介紹本季度津貼的驅動因素。雖然我們目前的信用指標良好，但考慮到經濟放緩的風險越來越大，我們增加了 4400 萬美元的準備金。我們的總體覆蓋率為 1.43%，與第三季度相比略有上升。目前的準備金水平考慮了溫和的衰退，並考慮了對較低資產價格的預期以及對某些投資組合增加壓力的風險，包括那些受通貨膨脹、供應鏈問題、更高利率和重返辦公室趨勢影響的風險較高的投資組合。鑑於這些壓力，我們正在非常仔細地觀察我們的貸款組合，以尋找壓力的早期跡象，尤其是 CRE 辦公室。回到附錄中的幻燈片 32，我們提供了一些關於 CRE 產品組合的額外信息。

Our total CRE allowance coverage of 1.86% includes elevated coverage for the office portfolio while the multifamily portfolio has a much lower reserve requirement. The $6.3 billion office portfolio includes $2.2 billion of credit tenant and life sciences properties, which are not as exposed to adverse back-to-office trends. The remaining $4 billion relates to the General Office segment for which we are holding a roughly 5% allowing coverage. About 95% of the General Office portfolio is income producing and about 70% is located in suburban areas.

我們 1.86% 的 CRE 總津貼覆蓋率包括辦公樓組合的高覆蓋率，而多戶住宅組合的準備金要求要低得多。價值 63 億美元的辦公室資產組合包括價值 22 億美元的信貸租戶和生命科學資產，這些資產不受不利的返辦公室趨勢的影響。剩餘的 40 億美元與我們持有大約 5% 允許覆蓋率的總務辦公室部分有關。大約 95% 的 General Office 投資組合是創收的，大約 70% 位於郊區。

Moving to Slide 13. We maintained excellent balance sheet strength. Our CET1 ratio increased to 10%, which is at the top end of our range. Tangible book value per share was up 5% in the quarter, and the tangible common equity ratio improved to 6.3%. We returned a total of $350 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Our strong capital position, combined with our earnings outlook, puts us in a position to continue to return capital to shareholders through additional share repurchases.

轉到幻燈片 13。我們保持了出色的資產負債表實力。我們的 CET1 比率增加到 10%，處於我們範圍的頂端。本季度每股有形賬面價值增長 5%，有形普通股權益比率提高至 6.3%。我們通過股票回購和派息共向股東返還了 3.5 億美元。我們強大的資本狀況，加上我們的盈利前景，使我們能夠通過額外的股票回購繼續向股東返還資本。

Shifting gears a bit. Starting on Slide 14, we'll cover some of the unique opportunities we have to drive outperformance over the next few years. We have tried to be very disciplined in prioritizing the areas that we think have big potential and where we have a right to win. So in Consumer, we've got 4 big opportunities. First is our [cushion] to New York Metro. We are investing in brand marketing, doing well in the technology conversions and putting our best people against the market opportunity.

稍微換檔。從幻燈片 14 開始，我們將介紹一些獨特的機會，我們必須在未來幾年推動卓越表現。在優先考慮我們認為具有巨大潛力和我們有權取勝的領域時，我們一直努力保持紀律嚴明。所以在消費者領域，我們有 4 個大機會。首先是我們對紐約地鐵的[緩衝]。我們正在投資於品牌營銷，在技術轉換方面做得很好，並讓我們最優秀的人才抓住市場機會。

We are encouraged by our early success with some recent client wins in commercial and the HSBC branches driving some of the highest customer acquisition and sales rates in our network. The full ISBC conversion is just around the corner on President's weekend, and we look forward to making further strides as we leverage the full power of our product lineup and customer-focused retail and small business model across the New York market. You will see more details on Slide 28 and 29 in the appendix.

我們對我們早期的成功感到鼓舞，最近在商業和匯豐銀行分支機構中贏得了一些客戶，推動了我們網絡中一些最高的客戶獲取和銷售率。完整的 ISBC 轉換即將在總統週末舉行，我們期待在充分利用我們產品陣容的全部力量以及整個紐約市場以客戶為中心的零售和小型企業模式的同時取得進一步的進步。您將在附錄中看到有關幻燈片 28 和 29 的更多詳細信息。

Importantly, we achieved about 70% in run rate of our planned $130 million of investors' net expense synergies as of the end of the year and we expect to capture the rest by the middle of the year. We also continue to expect that the integration costs will come in below our initial estimates.

重要的是，截至今年年底，我們實現了計劃的 1.3 億美元投資者淨費用協同效應的 70% 左右，我們預計將在今年年中實現其餘部分。我們還繼續預計整合成本將低於我們的初步估計。

Moving to wealth. We've launched a number of exciting initiatives with Citizens Private Client and Citizens Plus as we orient the business towards financial planning-led advice. These should really help us penetrate the opportunity with our existing customer base.

走向財富。我們與 Citizens Private Client 和 Citizens Plus 推出了一系列激動人心的舉措，因為我們將業務定位於以財務規劃為主導的建議。這些應該真正幫助我們挖掘現有客戶群的機會。

On Slide 15, our national expansion is another area where we have a great opportunity to build on our digital platform that has been focused on deposits for the last few years. We've moved that to a cloud-based platform, and we are adding our other product capabilities so that we can offer a complete digital bank experience to serve customers nationwide with a focus on the young mass affluent market segment.

在幻燈片 15 上，我們的全國擴張是另一個領域，我們有很好的機會在過去幾年一直專注於存款的數字平台上進行建設。我們已將其轉移到基於雲的平台，並且我們正在添加其他產品功能，以便我們能夠提供完整的數字銀行體驗，為全國范圍內的客戶提供服務，重點關注年輕的大眾富裕細分市場。

Where we might have only had a lending or deposit relationship before, our vision is to build a national platform that allows us to serve our customers in a comprehensive way. And we have also been very innovative in creating distinctive ways to serve customers. Citizens Pay, for example, is an area where we have significant running room. We've attracted many new partners, up about 150 versus a year ago, which should really ramp the business. And we built an industry-leading home equity business, powered by our innovative fast line process, which is enabled by advanced analytics and digital innovations that have drastically reduced originations time.

在我們之前可能只有借貸關係或存款關係的地方，我們的願景是建立一個全國性平台，使我們能夠以全面的方式為客戶提供服務。我們在創造獨特的客戶服務方式方面也非常有創意。例如，Citizens Pay 是一個我們有很大運行空間的領域。我們吸引了許多新的合作夥伴，比一年前增加了大約 150 個，這應該會真正推動業務發展。我們建立了行業領先的房屋淨值業務，由我們創新的快速線路流程提供支持，該流程由高級分析和數字創新實現，大大縮短了發起時間。

Moving to the Commercial Bank on Slide 16 and 17. We filled in all the product gaps. Acquisitions brought us M&A and other advisory capabilities, and we built out debt capital markets capabilities organically. We've hired some great coverage bankers and we are focused on high-growth regions around the country and the right industry verticals to serve larger companies. We also have a very strong sponsor coverage and are well positioned to support private equity capital. Bottom line, we have aligned ourselves with the attractive opportunities with a full product set to drive significant market share and fee revenues.

轉到幻燈片 16 和 17 上的商業銀行。我們填補了所有產品空白。收購為我們帶來了併購和其他諮詢能力，我們有機地建立了債務資本市場能力。我們聘請了一些覆蓋範圍廣的銀行家，我們專注於全國的高增長地區和合適的垂直行業，為大公司提供服務。我們還擁有非常強大的讚助商覆蓋範圍，並且能夠很好地支持私募股權資本。最重要的是，我們已經通過完整的產品組合抓住了誘人的機會，以推動顯著的市場份額和費用收入。

Moving to Slide 18. We are excited to announce the launch of our latest TOP program. Even as we push forward on offense with our strategic initiatives and acquisitions, it is important to remember that a key to Citizens success since our IPO has been our continuous effort to find new revenue pools and realize efficiencies and then reinvest those benefits back into our businesses so we can serve customers better. We've effectively executed our TOP 7 program, achieving a pretax run rate benefit of approximately $115 million at the end of 2022. And we've launched TOP 8 with a goal of an exit run rate of about $100 million of pretax benefits by the end of 2023, with that split about 80%-20% between efficiency and revenue-oriented initiatives.

轉到幻燈片 18。我們很高興地宣布推出我們最新的 TOP 計劃。即使我們通過戰略舉措和收購推進進攻，重要的是要記住，自我們首次公開募股以來，公民成功的關鍵是我們不斷努力尋找新的收入池和實現效率，然後將這些收益重新投資回我們的業務所以我們可以更好地為客戶服務。我們已經有效地執行了我們的 TOP 7 計劃，到 2022 年底實現了大約 1.15 億美元的稅前運行率收益。我們已經啟動了 TOP 8，目標是在到 2023 年底，效率和以收入為導向的計劃之間的比例約為 80%-20%。

Moving to Slide 19. I'll walk through the outlook for the full year, which contemplates an economic slowdown and the end of December forward curve view of 225 basis point Fed hikes before an expected 25 basis point cut in the fourth quarter. We expect solid NII growth up 11% to 14%, and we project our NIM to gradually rise towards approximately 3.4% for the fourth quarter of 2023.

轉到幻燈片 19。我將介紹全年的展望，其中考慮經濟放緩和 12 月底美聯儲加息 225 個基點的遠期曲線觀點，然後預計第四季度將降息 25 個基點。我們預計 NII 穩健增長 11% 至 14%，我們預計我們的 NIM 將在 2023 年第四季度逐漸上升至約 3.4%。

Our overall hedge position is expected to provide a NIM floor of about 3.2% through the fourth quarter of 2024 and a gradual 200 basis point decline across the curve, commencing in Q4 2023. In the fourth quarter, we took actions to transition $3 billion of active swaps from 2023 to forward-starting positions in 2024. And we've done even more so far in January to rebalance the distribution of down rate protection. You'll find a summary of our hedge position in the appendix on Slide 30.

我們的整體對沖頭寸預計將在 2024 年第四季度提供約 3.2% 的 NIM 下限，並從 2023 年第四季度開始在整個曲線上逐漸下降 200 個基點。在第四季度，我們採取行動將 30 億美元的從 2023 年到 2024 年的積極掉期。而且我們在 1 月份到目前為止做了更多工作來重新平衡降息保護的分配。您將在幻燈片 30 的附錄中找到我們對沖頭寸的摘要。

We expect moderate loan growth with average loans up about 4% to 5%. We are targeting about $3 billion of spot auto runoff as we shift the portfolio towards products with more attractive risk-adjusted returns. We expect total average earning assets to be up 3% to 4%. On the deposit side, we see 3% average deposit growth and a 2% to 3% spot deposit decline with cumulative deposit betas at year-end reaching the high 30s. These are expected to be up 7% to 9% with a capital markets rebound building over the course of the year.

我們預計貸款溫和增長，平均貸款增長約 4% 至 5%。隨著我們將投資組合轉向風險調整後回報更具吸引力的產品，我們的目標是約 30 億美元的現貨汽車徑流。我們預計總平均收益資產將增長 3% 至 4%。在存款方面，我們看到存款平均增長 3%，即期存款下降 2% 至 3%，年末累計存款貝塔值達到 30 多歲的高位。隨著今年資本市場反彈的建立，預計這些將增長 7% 至 9%。

Noninterest expense is expected to be up roughly 7% or about 3.5% to 4% if you adjust for the full year effect of the HSBC and investors acquisitions and the FDIC premium increase. If the year unfolds as we expect, we should be able to drive about 400 to 500 basis points of positive operating leverage.

如果您調整匯豐銀行和投資者收購的全年影響以及 FDIC 保費上漲，非利息支出預計將增長約 7% 或約 3.5% 至 4%。如果這一年如我們預期的那樣展開，我們應該能夠推動大約 400 到 500 個基點的積極經營槓桿。

Given current macro trends and portfolio originations, we expect that our ACL ratio will rise to the 1.45% to 1.5% level, depending upon how the economy fares. We expect our CET1 ratio to land at the upper end of our target range of 9.5% to 10%, even with our target payout ratio approaching 100%. All of this translates into ROTCE in the high teens for 2023.

鑑於當前的宏觀趨勢和投資組合來源，我們預計我們的 ACL 比率將上升至 1.45% 至 1.5% 的水平，具體取決於經濟狀況。我們預計我們的 CET1 比率將落在我們 9.5% 至 10% 的目標範圍的上限，即使我們的目標派息率接近 100%。所有這些都轉化為 2023 年高中生的 ROTCE。

On Slide 20, we provide the guide for Q1. Note that Q1 is seasonally weak for us with the day count impact and seasonality impacting revenues and taxes on compensation payouts impacting expenses.

在幻燈片 20 上，我們提供了 Q1 的指南。請注意，第一季度對我們來說是季節性疲軟的，天數影響和季節性影響收入，薪酬支出的稅收影響支出。

Moving to Slide 21. As Bruce mentioned, we have completely transformed the franchise since the IPO, executing well against our priorities and achieving our desired performance targets, and we are ready to raise the bar, lifting our ROTCE target to 16% to 18%. The key to the further ROTCE improvement is continuing to deliver positive operating leverage. As we look out over the medium term, we should see a recovery in loan and deposit growth and we will continue to balance -- continue our balance sheet optimization efforts to focus on deep relationship lending to maximize risk-adjusted returns. We are well positioned to grow fees meaningfully. And even if rates come down a bit, we expect NII to benefit from the protection we have put on through the swap portfolio.

轉到幻燈片 21。正如 Bruce 提到的，自 IPO 以來我們已經徹底改變了特許經營權，很好地執行了我們的優先事項並實現了我們期望的績效目標，我們準備提高標準，將我們的 ROTCE 目標提高到 16% 到 18% .進一步改進 ROTCE 的關鍵是繼續提供積極的運營槓桿。從中期來看，我們應該會看到貸款和存款增長的複蘇，我們將繼續保持平衡——繼續我們的資產負債表優化工作，專注於深度關係貸款，以最大限度地提高風險調整後的回報。我們有能力有意義地增加費用。即使利率有所下降，我們也希望 NII 能從我們通過掉期投資組合提供的保護中受益。

You should expect us to stay disciplined on expenses. Credit is projected to be stable as the economy strengthens. And we continue to focus on returning a meaningful amount of capital to our shareholders through our repurchase program and targeting a dividend payout of 35% to 40%. Over this time frame, we would expect our CET1 ratio to remain within our target range of 9.5% to 10%.

你應該期望我們在費用方面保持紀律。隨著經濟走強，信貸預計將保持穩定。我們繼續專注於通過我們的回購計劃向我們的股東返還大量資本，並將股息支付目標定為 35% 至 40%。在此期間，我們預計 CET1 比率將保持在 9.5% 至 10% 的目標範圍內。

To sum up, Slide 22, we delivered a strong quarter against the backdrop of a dynamic environment, and we have a positive outlook for 2023. We are ready for the uncertainty of an economic slowdown in 2023 with a strong capital, liquidity and funding position. We've taken actions to protect our NIM and we are being prudent with respect to our credit risk appetite and loan growth. At the same time, we are moving forward to executing against our strategy and making important investments in our business that we believe will deliver sustainable growth and outperformance over the medium term.

總而言之，幻燈片 22，我們在動態環境的背景下實現了強勁的季度表現，我們對 2023 年的前景持樂觀態度。我們已準備好應對 2023 年經濟放緩的不確定性，並擁有強大的資本、流動性和資金狀況.我們已採取行動保護我們的淨息差，我們在信用風險偏好和貸款增長方面保持謹慎。與此同時，我們正在繼續執行我們的戰略，並對我們的業務進行重要投資，我們相信這將在中期內實現可持續增長和優異表現。

With that, I'll hand it back over to Bruce.

有了這個，我會把它交還給布魯斯。

Okay. Thank you, John. And operator, why don't we open it up for Q&A?

好的。謝謝你，約翰。還有運營商，我們為什麼不打開它進行問答呢？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Scott Siefers of Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

It sounds like you guys rebalanced some of the hedges in the fourth quarter and are continuing to do so year-to-date so far. I was hoping you might please just expand upon how you're thinking on [how those] changed since last quarter and sort of how you intend to position yourself?

聽起來你們在第四季度重新平衡了一些對沖，並且今年迄今仍在繼續這樣做。我希望您可以擴展您對自上個季度以來 [這些] 發生的變化的看法，以及您打算如何定位自己？

Yes, I'll go ahead and start off. I mean on the big picture, we -- asset sensitivity last quarter was around 3%. We're a little bit below that this quarter just given the way the outlook for the balance sheet appears to be playing out in 2023. So as we're -- as you've seen over time, we've taken our asset sensitivity down. We are -- most of that asset sensitivity is really driven by the short end of the curve, which we expect to remain elevated throughout 2023.

是的，我會繼續並開始。我的意思是，從大局來看，我們——上個季度的資產敏感度約為 3%。鑑於資產負債表的前景似乎在 2023 年發揮作用，本季度我們略低於該水平。因此，正如您隨著時間的推移所看到的那樣，我們已經採取了資產敏感性向下。我們是 - 大部分資產敏感性實際上是由曲線的短端驅動的，我們預計整個 2023 年短端都會保持高位。

And as a result, we're looking at some of the down rate protection that we had in place in 2023 and just repositioning that out of spot-starting active swaps into forward-starting swaps into 2020 -- forward-starting swaps into 2024 and beyond. So we're looking to basically push that out and basically get that down rate protection smoothed out into the '24 and '25 periods rather than holding on to all of that down rate protection here in '23. That's the main objective in what we were doing in the fourth quarter, and we've done a little bit more of that in early 1Q.

因此，我們正在研究我們在 2023 年實施的一些下調利率保護措施，並將其從即期啟動的主動掉期重新定位到 2020 年的遠期啟動掉期——到 2024 年的遠期啟動掉期和超過。因此，我們希望基本上將其推出，並基本上將降價保護平滑到 24 年和 25 年期間，而不是在 23 年這裡堅持所有的降價保護。這是我們在第四季度所做工作的主要目標，我們在第一季度初做了更多。

And then more broadly, we're looking at net interest margin that quarter, if you will, we're trying to protect that corridor with -- at the low end, if rates were to fall by 200 basis points out in 2024, that you'll see a floor of around 320. So you see that 320 to 340 quarter being something that over time is more narrow than you would have seen from us maybe in past cycles. So that's the main objective.

然後更廣泛地說，我們正在研究那個季度的淨息差，如果你願意的話，我們正試圖保護這條走廊——在低端，如果利率在 2024 年下降 200 個基點，那你會看到 320 左右的下限。所以你會看到，隨著時間的推移，320 到 340 的季度比你在過去的周期中看到的要窄。這就是主要目標。

And I would just add to that, Scott, in our view in the macro is that the Fed likely moves maybe once or twice the forward curve as they'll move up 25 basis points a couple of times and then stop. And then typically, they would pause for 6 or 7 months before they would cut. And so if there's a cut happening, it likely happens very late in the year and maybe it could be early next year. So guided by that view, that's kind of why we're pushing out that downside protection a bit.

我只想補充一點，斯科特，在我們的宏觀觀點中，美聯儲可能會移動一到兩次遠期曲線，因為它們會幾次向上移動 25 個基點然後停止。然後通常，他們會在削減之前暫停 6 或 7 個月。因此，如果發生減產，它可能會在今年晚些時候發生，也可能會在明年年初發生。因此，在這種觀點的指導下，這就是我們稍微推出下行保護的原因。

Terrific. And then just a separate question. It looks like fees will need to rebound fairly meaningfully following the first quarter to hit the guide? I know, Bruce, you had mentioned an expectation for improved capital markets through the year. Maybe just a thought or 2 on how you see the main drivers of that fee guide as the year progresses, please?

了不起。然後只是一個單獨的問題。看起來費用需要在第一季度之後相當有意義地反彈才能達到指南？我知道，Bruce，你提到了對全年改善資本市場的期望。也許只是關於隨著時間的推移您如何看待該費用指南的主要驅動因素的一兩個想法？

Sure. So I think really, you put your finger on it there, Scott, is the Capital Markets business. We've had really strong pipelines this year. But because of the volatility because of the fact that the Fed is still moving higher, that's created uncertainty and just an inability to actually get the money to work from private equity or some of the deals done because the financing hasn't been there the way it's been in the past. And so I think as you -- going back to that macro forecast as the Fed is likely nearing kind of the destination in terms of peak rates. I think that starts to loosen up the markets, the financing markets, you'll see less volatility and a lot of the business is kind of clocked into our pipelines, will start to print and get delivered, and we'll start to see more transactions. So just by reference, most of the quarters this year, our capital markets revenues were $90 million to $100 million.

當然。所以我認為真的，斯科特，你把手指放在那兒，是資本市場業務。今年我們的管道非常強大。但由於美聯儲仍在走高這一事實造成的波動性，這造成了不確定性，並且只是無法真正從私募股權或一些已完成的交易中獲得資金，因為融資還沒有到位這已經過去了。所以我和你一樣認為 - 回到宏觀預測，因為美聯儲可能接近峰值利率的目的地。我認為這開始放鬆市場，融資市場，你會看到波動減少，很多業務都進入了我們的管道，將開始印刷和交付，我們將開始看到更多交易。因此，僅供參考，今年大部分季度，我們的資本市場收入為 9000 萬至 1 億美元。

If you go back to the fourth quarter of 2021, we had $184 million of fees, so roughly double that level. So we thought coming into this year that we'd have much stronger levels of revenue generation. But the good news is we still have a great overall focus on the right sectors in the market. We've got a great team. And so I think you'll see that start to rev up as we see the market conditions improve.

如果回到 2021 年第四季度，我們有 1.84 億美元的費用，大約是這個水平的兩倍。所以我們認為進入今年我們的創收水平會更高。但好消息是，我們仍然非常關注市場上正確的領域。我們有一支很棒的團隊。所以我認為當我們看到市場狀況改善時，你會看到它開始加速。

Beyond that, I'm also quite optimistic. We've made a lot of investments in the wealth business. And again, there, if you start to see some stability in the asset markets, we should get a kind of tailwind from that plus the investments that we've made. So feel confident about that. And then I'd say mortgage is so washed out. I keep thinking it can't go any lower, and it did in the fourth quarter. But I think you're starting to see people exit the business and [capacity] coming out of the business. And so you'll start to see margins expand, and I think volumes will pick up as we go through the year, again, linked back to the Fed reaching the destination and some stability on rates. So those would be the big things. I'm happy to pass the horn here. Don, do you want to say anything else...?

除此之外，我也很樂觀。我們在財富業務上進行了大量投資。再一次，如果你開始看到資產市場出現一些穩定，我們應該從中獲得某種順風，再加上我們所做的投資。所以對此充滿信心。然後我會說抵押貸款已經被淘汰了。我一直認為它不能再低了，而且在第四季度確實如此。但我認為你開始看到人們退出這個行業，並且 [capacity] 退出這個行業。因此，您將開始看到利潤率擴大，而且我認為隨著我們度過這一年，交易量將會回升，這再次與美聯儲達到目標和利率穩定有關。所以那些將是大事。我很高興在這里通過喇叭。唐，你還有什麼要說的嗎……？

Yes. I think you've pretty much covered it on Cap Markets. I said this last quarter, I'll just remind people, again, we are a middle market investment bank. So we're not dependent on these giant transactions that need $5 billion of financing. We do singles and doubles all day long, and our pipelines are reasonably strong with a very heavy content of private equity [who was a wash] with cash. So there will be transactions. If you don't get regular way transactions, you're going to get a lot of restructuring transactions. So there's minority capital and there's a lot of different ways to skin the cat. so we're relatively optimistic about what's ahead of us in the coming year.

是的。我認為您已經在 Cap Markets 上了解了很多。我在上個季度說過，我只是再次提醒人們，我們是一家中間市場投資銀行。因此，我們不依賴於這些需要 50 億美元融資的巨額交易。我們整天都在做單打和雙打，我們的管道相當強大，其中有大量現金的私募股權 [who was a wash]。所以才會有交易。如果你沒有獲得常規方式的交易，你將獲得大量的重組交易。所以有少數資本，有很多不同的方法來剝貓皮。因此，我們對來年的前景相對樂觀。

Yes. Brendan, anything? you can sum...

是的。布倫丹，有什麼事嗎？你可以總結...

I think you nailed that pretty well. I'd say well for the year, we're projecting slow and steady, continued progress, and it's a bit of a hopeful coiled spring when the equity markets really come back. But as long as they're stable, we should see some growth. I'd say the other bright spot is debt and ATM fees that continue to hit records both through customer engagement and primacy and all the investments we made in the health of the franchise that's also translating into our deposit quality, also some restructure on vendor relations section such that's giving us a bit of a boost there, too. So that should be a continued area of slow and steady progress.

我認為你做得很好。我想說今年不錯，我們預計會緩慢而穩定地持續取得進展，當股市真正回歸時，這有點像充滿希望的螺旋彈簧。但只要它們穩定，我們就應該看到一些增長。我想說的另一個亮點是債務和 ATM 費用，它們通過客戶參與和首要地位繼續創下歷史新高，以及我們為特許經營的健康所做的所有投資也轉化為我們的存款質量，以及對供應商關係的一些重組這樣的部分也給了我們一些推動力。因此，這應該是一個持續緩慢而穩定進展的領域。

On the other side, there will continue to be a little bit of pressure still on overdraft income and service charges, but we're sort of near the...

另一方面，透支收入和服務費仍將繼續面臨一些壓力，但我們有點接近……

Most of that's in the run rate.

其中大部分在運行率中。

Most of that's in the run rate. Most of that's in the run rate. And we're sort of near the bottom, which is good that we will then move away from being a headwind for us, real soon.

其中大部分在運行率中。其中大部分在運行率中。我們有點接近底部，這很好，我們很快就會擺脫對我們的不利影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson.

你的下一個問題來自 Peter Winter with D.A.戴維森。

I wanted to ask on credit. John, you mentioned that most of the increase in nonperforming loans was commercial real estate. I was just wondering, was that office related? And if you can just give a little bit more color on what your outlook is for office?

我想賒賬。約翰，你提到不良貸款的大部分增加是商業房地產。我只是想知道，那個辦公室有關係嗎？如果您能對您的辦公室前景多加一點色彩？

Yes. Maybe I'll just talk about the coverage levels. Just broadly, as you may have seen in our materials that the CRE coverage from an allowance standpoint is around 186 basis points. But when you carve out some of the really high-quality stuff in multifamily and credit tenant lease and life sciences, you get to our General Office segment, where we have very healthy coverage of around 5%.

是的。也許我只會談論覆蓋率級別。從廣義上講，正如您可能在我們的材料中看到的那樣，從津貼的角度來看，CRE 覆蓋率約為 186 個基點。但是，當你在多戶家庭和信貸租戶租賃以及生命科學領域開闢出一些真正高質量的東西時，你就會進入我們的綜合辦公室部門，我們在該部門的覆蓋率非常健康，約為 5%。

So there are some -- we are seeing some trends there that are telling us that we should be putting away some reserves to deal with the back-to-office trends that are a headwind in that space. So you got good healthy coverage of around 5%. We are seeing some of that tick into the nonaccrual space, I would say more broadly, that will -- even though that goes into nonaccrual, our overall pre-LTVs are typically around 60%. And so you got to distinguish from nonaccruals from actual loss content. And so even though we're putting some allowance away, we feel like that's commensurate with the loss content that we see in the book. And I'll just stop there.

因此，有一些——我們看到了一些趨勢，這些趨勢告訴我們，我們應該儲備一些儲備金，以應對在該領域不利的返回辦公室趨勢。所以你得到了大約 5% 的良好健康覆蓋率。我們看到其中一些進入非應計空間，我想更廣泛地說，這將 - 即使進入非應計空間，我們的整體 LTV 前通常約為 60%。因此，您必須將非應計項目與實際損失內容區分開來。因此，儘管我們放棄了一些津貼，但我們覺得這與我們在書中看到的損失內容相稱。我就到此為止。

And Don, do you want to add?

唐，你想補充嗎？

I'll just say for the office portfolio, but CRE in general, it's first and foremost, who's the sponsor and who's the investor, and we have a very high-quality group of investors that we do business with, which are largely institutional. Second is what MSAs are you in and where are you? And we think suburban will do better than urban. As we said in the comments, we're heavily weighted to suburban. So we're going through every single property in the office portfolio. We'll restructure a lot of them with the sponsors. We restructured one already this year where the sponsor-contributed equity. So we're comfortable around where we are with the coverage ratios right now, but we'll be active in restructuring the portfolio. But we kind of like the contours of what we've got.

我只想說辦公室投資組合，但總的來說，CRE 首先是誰是發起人，誰是投資者，我們有一群非常高質量的投資者，我們與之有業務往來，這些投資者主要是機構投資者。其次是你在哪個 MSAs，你在哪裡？我們認為郊區會比城市做得更好。正如我們在評論中所說，我們非常重視郊區。因此，我們正在檢查辦公室組合中的每一個財產。我們將與讚助商一起重組其中的很多內容。我們今年已經重組了一個發起人出資的股權。因此，我們對目前的覆蓋率感到滿意，但我們將積極重組投資組合。但我們有點喜歡我們所擁有的輪廓。

Got it. And then just as a follow-up, can you just talk about what changed in the updated margin guidance of towards 340 versus the prior guidance of 350? Is it just the higher deposit beta outlook?

知道了。然後，作為後續行動，您能否談談更新後的 340 保證金指南與之前的 350 指南相比發生了什麼變化？這只是更高的存款貝塔前景嗎？

Yes. I'll go ahead and cover that. I mean I think, more broadly, it's 2 overall comments, really the -- just given the pace and speed of rate changes and the impact on the migration of the deposit mix that we expect as you get into 2023 is really most and the majority of what we're looking at. So -- and that migration manifests itself in 2 ways. It's really the amount of DDA migration that we see as well as the cost of our relatively low cost deposits that we're seeing not only within our platform but across the industry.

是的。我將繼續介紹它。我的意思是，我認為，更廣泛地說，這是 2 條總體評論，真的 - 考慮到利率變化的速度和速度以及我們預計到 2023 年存款組合遷移的影響實際上是最多和大多數我們正在看的東西。所以 - 這種遷移以兩種方式表現出來。這實際上是我們看到的 DDA 遷移量以及我們不僅在我們的平台內而且在整個行業中看到的相對低成本存款的成本。

So from that perspective, just kind of marking that to market with respect to what we're seeing in the trends in the fourth quarter and the rate and curve outlook that we see going throughout the rest of '23, I would hasten to add the -- what's embedded in there nevertheless, is a transformed deposit platform that back -- prior to the pandemic, we would have had DDA percentages that would be in the low 20s compared with a majority of the portfolio being outside of DDA, of course.

因此，從這個角度來看，就我們在第四季度的趨勢中看到的情況以及我們在整個 23 年剩餘時間裡看到的利率和曲線前景而言，只是將其標記為市場，我會趕緊補充——儘管如此，其中嵌入的是一個經過改造的存款平台，它支持——當然，在大流行之前，我們的 DDA 百分比將低於 20 多歲，而大部分投資組合都在 DDA 之外。

But you fast forward to where we are in the fourth quarter, and we're at 28% of our deposit franchise is sitting in DDA. That's a significant increase versus pre-pandemic. And we expect to end the year in the sort of the mid- to high 20s in the DDA space down a little bit from where we are today, but nevertheless, still in very high quality. You add in Consumer CRE and consumer savings, which is other low cost, you end up with still about 50% or more of our deposit portfolio sitting in low-cost categories. That's up from the low 40s prior to the pandemic. So this has been a multi-multiyear transformation of the deposit franchise.

但是你快進到我們在第四季度的位置，我們有 28% 的存款專營權位於 DDA。與大流行前相比，這是一個顯著的增長。我們預計今年結束時 DDA 領域的中高 20 年代會比我們今天的水平略有下降，但仍然具有非常高的質量。你加上消費者 CRE 和消費者儲蓄，這是其他低成本，你最終仍然有大約 50% 或更多的存款組合屬於低成本類別。這比大流行前的低 40 多歲有所上升。因此，這是存款專營權的多年轉型。

So I think we're basically just calibrating what we expect in 2023, which is -- with the majority of what we saw in terms of the decline from 350 to 340. I think you could also add in what's going on with the curve and front book/back book as well. When you look at it just how quickly rates are rising, the front book originations take a longer time to contribute. And from that perspective, we're seeing that being a driver as well.

所以我認為我們基本上只是在校准我們對 2023 年的預期，也就是——我們看到的大部分是從 350 下降到 340。我認為你還可以加上曲線的變化和前書/後書也是如此。當你看一下利率上升的速度有多快時，前書的發起需要更長的時間來做出貢獻。從這個角度來看，我們也看到了它是一個驅動因素。

And then not only the speed of -- I guess the last point I'll make is not only the speed of rates rising, but the inversion of the yield curve is something that is also pretty -- is a headwind to front book/back book. Just to end it with nevertheless, front book/back book is a positive tailwind over time. We're seeing 300 basis point positive front book/back book across securities and our fixed rate lending businesses, that's still a tailwind. And that's going to be a driver into 2023 with net interest margins rising just not by quite as much as we thought last quarter.

然後不僅速度——我想我要說的最後一點不僅是利率上升的速度，而且收益率曲線的倒掛也很漂亮——是前書/後書的逆風書。只是為了結束它，隨著時間的推移，前書/後書是一個積極的順風。我們在證券和我們的固定利率貸款業務中看到 300 個基點的正前書/後書，這仍然是一個順風。這將成為 2023 年的推動力，淨息差的增長幅度不會像我們上個季度想像的那樣大。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Wondering, Bruce, heard your earlier comments about we're at 130 ACL day 1 adjusted for the deals in the low 140s now and your comments about 145, 150 year-end. I'm just wondering if you can help us, given that you're slowing loan growth and letting the auto book run out, how do you just help us understand what you're seeing in terms of what your CECL impact might be looking ahead versus the impact of slower loan growth in terms of that endpoint that you're expecting?

想知道，Bruce，聽到你之前關於我們在 130 ACL 第 1 天的評論，現在針對低 140 的交易進行了調整，以及你對 145、150 年底的評論。我只是想知道你是否可以幫助我們，鑑於你正在放緩貸款增長並讓自動賬簿用完，你如何幫助我們了解你在 CECL 未來可能產生的影響方面所看到的與您預期的端點相比，貸款增長放緩的影響？

Yes.

是的。

Sure. I'll start. John, you can pick up. But I'd say what we've done for the past several quarters is kind of keep looking forward as to what's the macro forecast and are there any particular segments of the portfolio that could come under stress given the Fed has continued to push higher and economic growth has been downgraded. So I think there's -- like I read today that over 60% of the leading economists are projecting a forecast for this year. So the reason that we've been building gradually is just taking that into account.

當然。我會開始。約翰，你可以接。但我要說的是，我們在過去幾個季度所做的是繼續期待宏觀預測是什麼，以及鑑於美聯儲繼續推高和經濟增長被下調。所以我認為 - 就像我今天讀到的那樣，超過 60% 的主要經濟學家正在預測今年的預測。所以我們逐步構建的原因只是考慮到這一點。

I think at some point, you kind of get the cards turned up in 2023, and you'll have more information and less uncertainty, but we don't see that where we sit today. So I think it's prudent to continue to view the course -- likely course, is that the ACL will go up a couple of basis points a quarter like we've done and get into that 145 to 150 range at some point, then you'll have seen whatever the recessionary impact is, and then you'll be looking forward and then you may get to the point where you can release some of those reserves depending on what your charge-off experience is. Clearly, Ken, the slower loan growth plays into that, to some degree is mitigating what the build could have been, but anyway, those are the dynamics that's like, John, I don't know if you want to add to that?

我認為在某個時候，你會在 2023 年看到這些卡片，你將獲得更多信息和更少的不確定性，但我們今天看不到這一點。所以我認為繼續觀察這個過程是明智的——可能的過程是，ACL 會像我們所做的那樣每季度上升幾個基點，並在某個時候進入 145 到 150 的範圍，然後你無論經濟衰退的影響是什麼，您都會看到，然後您會期待，然後您可能會達到可以釋放其中一些儲備的地步，具體取決於您的沖銷經驗。很明顯，肯，貸款增長放緩在某種程度上減輕了建設的影響，但無論如何，這些都是動態的，約翰，我不知道你是否想補充一下？

Yes. I'll add that. I mean just for the last couple of quarters, we've had a mild-to-moderate recession built into the ACL. And so our peak-to-trough GDP decline that we have built into our models are 1.5%. That would be a moderate recession at this point. I think the changes you may have seen in the second half of '22 were not quite as much on the expectation that there would be a recession as much as what the collateral value outlook really impact was.

是的。我會補充的。我的意思是，僅在過去幾個季度，ACL 就出現了輕度至中度的衰退。因此，我們在模型中建立的 GDP 峰谷下降幅度為 1.5%。在這一點上，這將是一場溫和的衰退。我認為你可能在 22 年下半年看到的變化並不像對抵押品價值前景的真正影響那樣預期會出現衰退。

So when you think about house prices and used car prices, et cetera, we've been increasing the amount of decline expected. So you've got sort of the low to mid-teens declines now built into our models for both house prices and auto prices over the foreseeable and kind of period. And so that's really -- and that's not really driving a lot of losses, just we've been having a lot of recoveries in the portfolio over the last year or so. And so you may then -- you might see some lower recoveries and that will have the -- you saw our loss -- that's built into our loss forecast for '23. But I think that's an important item that you saw in 4Q in terms of our outlook for 2023 and 2024.

因此，當您考慮房價和二手車價格等時，我們一直在增加預期的下降幅度。因此，在可預見的一段時間內，我們的房價和汽車價格模型中已經內置了低到中等的下降幅度。所以這真的 - 這並沒有真正造成很多損失，只是在過去一年左右的時間裡我們的投資組合出現了很多複蘇。所以你可能會——你可能會看到一些較低的回收率——你會看到我們的損失——這是我們對 23 年損失預測的一部分。但我認為，就我們對 2023 年和 2024 年的展望而言，這是您在第四季度看到的一個重要項目。

Got it. Okay. And just one quick follow-up on the capital point. You're nearing 100% implies a nice incremental step up in the buyback. I'm just wondering how you're thinking about the mix of the dividend versus the buyback going forward, yet you obviously moved to $0.42 in the third quarter. Should we also think about that you would be moving the dividend up in line with increased earnings potential as well within that context?

知道了。好的。只是對資本點的快速跟進。你接近 100% 意味著回購有一個很好的增量。我只是想知道你如何考慮未來的股息與回購的組合，但你顯然在第三季度升至 0.42 美元。我們是否還應該考慮在這種情況下，您是否會隨著盈利潛力的增加而提高股息？

Yes. I'd say what we do here is every year, we're on a cadence where post-CCAR, we basically take that as the opportunity to broadly update our capital return profile. Over the medium term, we're looking at 35% to 40% dividend payout. And you saw that in some of our medium-term outlook. We've updated that this is going to be more of a buyback return year in '23 because of the outlook for RWAs. But we take a look at a dividend policy and earnings outlook and update whether there should be a change in the dividend after CCAR.

是的。我想說我們每年在這裡所做的，我們處於後 CCAR 的節奏中，我們基本上以此為契機來廣泛更新我們的資本回報率。從中期來看，我們期待 35% 至 40% 的股息支付。你在我們的一些中期展望中看到了這一點。我們已經更新說，由於 RWA 的前景，這將是 23 年的回購回報年。但我們看一下股息政策和盈利前景，並更新 CCAR 之後股息是否應該發生變化。

Yes. And I would just add to that, Ken, that clearly, with the uncertainty in the environment, we are being cautious in terms of the lending of kind of risk appetite. And so I think that, in and of itself, creates some additional capital versus what we've had in prior years. I also think we still have our plate full in integration of existing acquisitions and we haven't seen a whole lot that's attractive at valuations that we're interested in on the acquisition front.

是的。我只想補充一點，肯，很明顯，由於環境的不確定性，我們對風險偏好的貸款持謹慎態度。因此，我認為，與前幾年相比，這本身就創造了一些額外的資本。我還認為，我們在整合現有收購方面仍有很多工作要做，而且我們還沒有看到我們在收購方面感興趣的估值具有吸引力的很多東西。

And so I think the combination of operating at very high profitability levels with ROTCE returns in the high teens plus more modest loan growth than historical, more modest acquisition activity than historical creates the opportunity. And I think it's appropriate given the uncertainty and chance for recession that returning capital to shareholders is the right course of action here. So you could expect we would like to raise the dividend during the course of the year, and we'd also like to get close to that 100% return of capital to shareholders.

因此，我認為以非常高的盈利水平運營與高青少年的 ROTCE 回報加上比歷史更溫和的貸款增長，比歷史更溫和的收購活動創造了機會。考慮到經濟衰退的不確定性和可能性，我認為將資本返還給股東是正確的做法。所以你可以預期我們希望在這一年中提高股息，我們也希望接近 100% 的資本回報給股東。

Your next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 John Pancari 與 Evercore 的對話。

On the overall deposit dynamics, I know you expect a 2% to 3% year-over-year spot decline. Can you maybe give us a little more color on how you expect overall deposit trends to progress through 2023 to get to that 2% to 3% spot decline? Maybe help us with the magnitude of declines that you think is reasonable here in the coming quarters as you look at deposit flows?

關於整體存款動態，我知道您預計現貨同比下降 2% 至 3%。你能不能給我們更多關於你預計到 2023 年整體存款趨勢將如何發展以達到 2% 到 3% 的現貨下降的顏色？當您查看存款流量時，也許可以幫助我們解決您認為在未來幾個季度這里合理的下降幅度？

Yes, sure. I'll jump in there. I mean...

是的，當然。我會跳進去。我是說...

You can start and then maybe pass it to Don and Brendan.

您可以開始，然後可能將其傳遞給 Don 和 Brendan。

Sure. Yes. That sounds good. Yes. I mean I think overall, as I mentioned before, we're seeing deposit migration from a DDA perspective as well as from some of our lower cost levels. But broadly, the mix is superior and improved compared to pre-pandemic. I think we're around 28% DDA in 4Q, that's probably going to tick down a bit, call it to maybe 27% or so by the end of the year. That's part of the story. I'd say the -- some of the higher cost deposits in money markets and savings will be part of the runoff as well such that you get to something along the lines of 2% to 3% declined spot-to-spot end of '22 into '23. And so I'd say that you end up with some, again, improved mix compared to pre-pandemics, but a little bit of mix softening as you get throughout '23. And I'll just...

當然。是的。聽起來很好。是的。我的意思是，我認為總體而言，正如我之前提到的，我們正在從 DDA 的角度以及我們的一些較低成本水平看到存款遷移。但從廣義上講，與大流行前相比，這種組合更為優越和有所改善。我認為我們在第四季度的 DDA 約為 28%，這可能會有所下降，到年底可能會達到 27% 左右。這是故事的一部分。我想說的是——貨幣市場和儲蓄中一些成本較高的存款也將成為決流的一部分，這樣你就會得到大約 2% 到 3% 的下降點到點結束 ' 22 到 23 年。因此，我想說的是，與大流行前相比，你最終會再次得到一些改進的組合，但隨著整個 23 年的到來，混合會有所軟化。而我只會...

I would just add -- I would add to that is that I'd say we did not take in as much surge deposit as many in our peer group. We have a consumer-tilted deposit base, which tends to be more stable. And so we've been monitoring that surge deposits quite carefully. And we have seen it actually be more sticky than we initially expected. I think where you'd see a slight runoff probably is more on the commercial side where treasurers have other alternatives besides bank deposits to move some money out. But again, we're relatively protected there because we didn't take in a lot of that money in terms of search deposits. So maybe, Don, you could comment and then Brendan?

我只想補充一點——我要補充的是，我想說的是，我們吸收的激增存款不如我們同行中的那麼多。我們有一個消費者傾斜的存款基礎，它往往更穩定。因此，我們一直在非常仔細地監測激增的存款。我們已經看到它實際上比我們最初預期的更粘。我認為您會看到輕微徑流的地方可能更多是在商業方面，那裡的財務主管除了銀行存款之外還有其他選擇可以將一些資金轉出。但同樣，我們在那里相對受到保護，因為我們沒有在搜索存款方面收取大量資金。所以也許，Don，你可以發表評論，然後是 Brendan？

Yes. I think our spot is down a little less than 2% year-to-year. We actually ended this year a little higher than we thought we were going to because we had some nice inflow at the end of the year. But back to -- I think John said it in his comments, we've really transformed our deposit base really off the back of our treasury services business, so both specialty deposit offerings, we've got 2 that we're now in the market with around ESG, green deposits and carbon offsets and then just the strengthening of our DDA deposits with our treasury services business gives us more stability than we would have had in prior years. So we feel pretty good about that projection.

是的。我認為我們的現貨同比下降略低於 2%。事實上，我們今年結束時比我們預期的要高一點，因為我們在年底有一些不錯的流入。但是回到——我想約翰在他的評論中說過，我們真的改變了我們的存款基礎，真正脫離了我們的資金服務業務，所以這兩種專業存款產品，我們有 2 個我們現在處於圍繞 ESG、綠色存款和碳抵消的市場，然後通過我們的資金服務業務加強我們的 DDA 存款，使我們比往年更加穩定。所以我們對這個預測感覺很好。

And we're -- in general, we're really managing the balance sheet from a BSO standpoint and really we're avoiding most new transactions given just the shyness around the credit environment and the uncertainty, and we're moving clients who aren't generating positive returns off the franchise and off the balance sheet. So it gives us a little bit of a dynamic that we don't really need to go chase deposits because we're keeping the loan side relatively modestly in terms of how it grows.

而且我們 - 總的來說，我們實際上是從 BSO 的角度管理資產負債表，並且實際上我們正在避免大多數新交易，因為信貸環境的羞怯和不確定性，我們正在轉移客戶'從特許經營權和資產負債表中產生正回報。所以它給了我們一點動力，我們真的不需要去追逐存款，因為我們在貸款方面保持相對溫和的增長方式。

Yes. Without being too redundant to what John mentioned, I'd say consumer has been broadly stable on deposits, which is a really good thing. And the story for us is going to be controlling the mix, but all indications are quite positive. We look at a lot of benchmarking data, and we're pretty confident that we're performing in the top quartile of our peer banks in terms of retention of low-cost deposits as well as interest-bearing deposit costs so far in the cycle. It's sort of midway through the cycle.

是的。 John 提到的內容並不過分多餘，我想說消費者的存款大致穩定，這是一件非常好的事情。對我們來說，故事將控制組合，但所有跡像都非常積極。我們查看了很多基準數據，並且我們非常有信心，在本週期迄今為止的低成本存款保留和生息存款成本方面，我們在同行銀行中的表現處於前四分之一.這有點像週期的中途。

So we've got to stay disciplined and manage it well, but it's been driven by a lot of health improvements, household growth, improvements in primacy, mix shift to Bruce's point, we were 45% mass affluent and above 5 years ago, we're now 60% of our customer base mass affluent and above, so the quality has been quite good.

所以我們必須保持紀律並妥善管理它，但它是由許多健康改善、家庭增長、首要地位的改善、布魯斯點的混合轉變所推動的，我們在 5 年前有 45% 的大眾富裕，我們現在我們的客戶群中有60%是富裕的大眾及以上，所以質量已經相當不錯了。

On the stimulus front, what we're seeing is the bottom 2 deciles of our customer base is essentially back to paycheck to paycheck. So that stimulus has already burned off and is in the rearview mirror. So the stimulus that remains with us tends to be with the more affluent customers, whether that's actual stimulus check. So that's balance parking that happened during COVID for not making mortgage payments and not traveling, et cetera, et cetera. We're not actually seeing that burn off as much as we're starting to see that rotate out of low-cost deposits into interest-bearing, which is natural given the stated interest rate.

在刺激方面，我們所看到的是我們客戶群中排名最低的 2 個十分之一基本上又回到了薪水支票。因此，刺激已經消失並出現在後視鏡中。因此，留在我們身邊的刺激措施往往是針對更富裕的客戶，無論那是實際的刺激措施。所以這就是在 COVID 期間發生的平衡停車，因為不支付抵押貸款和不旅行等等。我們實際上並沒有像開始看到從低成本存款轉向生息存款那樣大量消耗掉它，考慮到規定的利率，這是很自然的。

So we're managing that really tight. All the investments we've made in the franchise, whether its analytics, new products, the introduction of Citizens Plus in our Private Client Group as well as having Citizens Access to fence off interest-bearing deposits to maintain discipline in the core have all been really big levers for us to manage well. And all indications we see so far is that we're right on track with where we want it to be and dramatically outperforming where we were last time in an up-rate cycle and at worst, in line with peers, with some signs that we may be doing a bit better, which is a big turnaround from where we were 5, 6 years ago.

所以我們管理得非常嚴格。我們對特許經營權所做的所有投資，無論是其分析、新產品、在我們的私人客戶組中引入 Citizens Plus 以及讓 Citizens Access 隔離生息存款以維持核心紀律，都得到了回報對我們來說管理良好的巨大槓桿。到目前為止，我們看到的所有跡像都表明，我們正朝著我們希望的方向前進，並且在上次加息週期中的表現大大優於我們上次的表現，最糟糕的是，與同行一致，有一些跡象表明我們可能會做得更好一些，這與我們 5、6 年前的情況相比是一個巨大的轉變。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then separately on the commercial real estate front, I know you stated 60% LTV on overall commercial real estate. Is that origination? And then do you happen to have refreshed LTV? I know you mentioned that a lot of your deals have sponsor participation, but we're hearing that with sponsors exiting or refinancing out of certain deals that's impacting the LTV, so the refreshed LTVs may be a better read, particularly on the office front.

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後分別在商業房地產方面，我知道你說整體商業房地產的 LTV 為 60%。那是起源嗎？然後你碰巧刷新了 LTV 嗎？我知道你提到你的很多交易都有贊助商參與，但我們聽說贊助商退出或從某些影響 LTV 的交易中再融資，所以更新後的 LTV 可能更好讀，尤其是在辦公室方面。

Yes. The office -- the 60% was the office LTVs in terms of not the overall CRE book. So we think those are still pretty good. We're refreshing the property by property. We haven't gone through and done a total refresh on the entirety of the book yet, but we're kind of working it on the maturing quarter-by-quarter maturities and working with the sponsors to either refinance out, inject equity or adjust the value of the portfolio. And that's what drove the NPL this quarter. It was really one real estate deal.

是的。辦公室 - 60% 是辦公室 LTV，而不是整個 CRE 書籍。所以我們認為那些仍然很好。我們正在按屬性刷新屬性。我們還沒有對整本書進行全面更新，但我們正在按季度到期，並與發起人合作再融資、注入股權或調整投資組合的價值。這就是推動本季度不良貸款的原因。這真的是一筆房地產交易。

Okay. Sorry. So that's (inaudible) is a refresh number on the office side? Or is it a origination?

好的。對不起。那是（聽不清）是辦公室端的刷新號碼嗎？還是起源？

It's all throughout origination.

這一切都貫穿於起源。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

This is Nathan Stein on behalf of Matt O'Connor. On capital, so the 9.5% to 10% medium-term CET1 target range, that's well above the regulatory minimum. You've built reserves a lot, and it seems like the conversion time line of ISBC is going really well. So I guess my question is, why hold so much capital down the road given solid reserves and successful deal integration time line?

我是 Nathan Stein，代表 Matt O'Connor。在資本方面，9.5% 至 10% 的中期 CET1 目標範圍遠高於監管最低要求。你已經建立了很多儲備，而且 ISBC 的轉換時間線似乎進展得非常順利。所以我想我的問題是，鑑於穩固的儲備和成功的交易整合時間表，為什麼要在未來持有如此多的資金？

Yes. I would say part of it is just the philosophy of liking to have a strong balance sheet. And so I think 9.5% to 10% is a strong ratio. You've seen over time that we've originally had a target of 10% to 10.5%, and we've been kind of sliding that down as we -- our profitability goes up. And I think the stakeholders gain more confidence that we have a good strategy, and we're executing well. So it wouldn't surprise me at some point where we start to manage down in that range. I think the time of 2023 today, and we're looking at a potential recession to be at the top end of that range makes sense. But once we get to the other side of that to start to move that down and maybe manage that closer to the bottom end of that range will provide more leverage. And then at that point, I think we could step back and say, do we still need 9.5% to 10% or can we skinny that down a little bit? So I think that's all in front of us, we thought at this point, given the dynamics around 2023, it wouldn't make sense to actually move that target range down.

是的。我想說其中一部分只是喜歡擁有強大資產負債表的理念。所以我認為 9.5% 到 10% 是一個很好的比例。隨著時間的推移，你已經看到我們最初的目標是 10% 到 10.5%，隨著我們的盈利能力的提高，我們一直在降低這個目標。而且我認為利益相關者對我們有一個好的戰略並且我們執行得很好更有信心。因此，當我們開始在該範圍內進行管理時，我不會感到驚訝。我認為今天是 2023 年，我們正在考慮處於該範圍頂端的潛在衰退是有道理的。但是一旦我們到達另一邊開始將其向下移動並且可能將其管理得更接近該範圍的底端將提供更多槓桿作用。然後到那時，我認為我們可以退一步說，我們是否還需要 9.5% 到 10%，或者我們可以將其縮減一點嗎？所以我認為這一切都擺在我們面前，我們在這一點上認為，鑑於 2023 年左右的動態，實際上將目標範圍下調是沒有意義的。

Okay. And second question is just on loans. So the $3 billion auto runoff will offset growth in other areas this year. What are your expectations for other loan categories in 2023 coming off of a strong 2022?

好的。第二個問題只是關於貸款。因此，30 億美元的汽車支出將抵消今年其他領域的增長。您對 2022 年強勁的 2023 年其他貸款類別有何期望？

Yes. I'll go ahead and start there and others can chime in. But I mean, I think when you look out into 2023, we still see very, very strong opportunities in the commercial space and within C&I. And I think something to always keep in mind is our utilization is well below where historical levels would imply we should be. And so as you get into the later part of the year, you see some recovery in investments, in inventories and CapEx and possibly M&A, which actually provides financing opportunities. We see lots of opportunities across commercial. And that's really one of the main drivers.

是的。我會繼續從那裡開始，其他人可以插話。但我的意思是，我認為當你展望 2023 年時，我們仍然會在商業領域和 C&I 中看到非常非常強大的機會。而且我認為要始終牢記的是，我們的利用率遠低於歷史水平所暗示的水平。因此，當你進入今年下半年時，你會看到投資、庫存和資本支出以及可能的併購有所復甦，這實際上提供了融資機會。我們在商業領域看到了很多機會。這確實是主要驅動因素之一。

When you get into consumer, we're looking at home equity being a place that -- we are placed that we like and card and Citizens Pay would contribute as well. So all of that wraps up to a stable year-over-year loans and back to the point around that being taking that otherwise RWA that would have been deployed against auto and some other categories with lower risk-adjusted returns and giving that back to shareholders.

當你進入消費者市場時，我們正在尋找家庭資產——我們被安置在我們喜歡的地方，卡和 Citizens Pay 也會做出貢獻。因此，所有這些都包含了一個穩定的同比貸款，並回到了這一點，即採用本來可以針對汽車和其他一些風險調整後回報率較低的類別部署的風險加權資產，並將其返還給股東.

Your next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

I just wanted to follow up on the NIM line of questioning. I think you brought down the floor for NIM from 3.25% to 3.2%. Is that also a function of what you mentioned on the DDA migration and the curve and also the fact that you pushed out the forward swaps is the biggest variable on that number, mostly the cost of funding side? Or I guess would there be any changes to that 3.2% number, the Fed cuts rates sooner?

我只是想跟進 NIM 的提問線。我認為您將 NIM 的底線從 3.25% 降低到了 3.2%。這是否也是您在 DDA 遷移和曲線中提到的功能，以及您推出遠期掉期的事實是該數字的最大變量，主要是資金方面的成本？或者我猜想 3.2% 的數字會有任何變化，美聯儲會更快降息嗎？

Yes, I'll start and flip to John. It's Bruce. But I think the 2 numbers are tethered together. So if the 350 is now seen to be 340, then your floor is going to also commensurately move lower. The good news is, in a way, is that we've tightened the bottom side of that range. So previously, it was 350 down to 325. So it was 25 basis points and now it's 340 to 320. So it's 20 basis points. So anyway, I think we -- certainly, John's initial answer on the movement down has been focused more on migration, the DDA and low-cost migration, but then also some of the impact from the yield curve on front book/back book has been the other dynamic. So those are the things that we're watching. But John, you can pick out from there.

是的，我將開始並轉向約翰。是布魯斯。但我認為這兩個數字是連在一起的。因此，如果 350 現在看起來是 340，那麼您的底價也將相應地走低。在某種程度上，好消息是我們收緊了該範圍的底部。所以之前，它是 350 到 325。所以它是 25 個基點，現在是 340 到 320。所以它是 20 個基點。所以無論如何，我認為我們——當然，約翰對向下移動的最初回答更多地集中在遷移、DDA 和低成本遷移上，但也有一些來自收益率曲線對前台賬簿/後台賬簿的影響是另一個動態。所以這些就是我們正在關注的事情。但是約翰，你可以從那裡挑選出來。

Yes. I'd say the only thing I'd add, just to remember, we constructed -- we modeled that 320 and there's a lot of assumptions that go into that with respect to what the mix of the balance sheet would be, et cetera. And what we're assuming is a 200 basis point gradual decline in 2024 that would get you down to that 320. And given that we are still asset sensitive and we haven't closed out that position, that's really what you're seeing in terms of the decline in net interest margin.

是的。我要說的是，我唯一要補充的是，要記住，我們構建了——我們對 320 進行了建模，並且有很多關於資產負債表組合的假設，等等。我們假設 2024 年逐漸下降 200 個基點，這將使您降至 320。鑑於我們仍然對資產敏感並且我們還沒有平倉，這就是您在淨息差下降方面。

So as and when we continue to look at ways to lock in protection against down rates, you could see that 320 move around based on hedging activities as well as updated views on what the mix of the balance sheet is likely to be in the context of what's the Fed...

因此，當我們繼續研究鎖定利率下調保護的方法時，您可以看到 320 基於對沖活動以及對資產負債表組合在美聯儲是什麼...

It's a very dynamic process. So we look and see where the forward curves say rates are going to be. We have our own view of that. We see what the valuations we can get in the hedge market are. And you can be assured, I think we played our hand quite well so far, and we'll continue to stay really focused on this.

這是一個非常動態的過程。因此，我們查看並查看遠期曲線表明利率的位置。我們對此有自己的看法。我們看看我們在對沖市場上可以獲得的估值是多少。你可以放心，我認為到目前為止我們的手牌打得很好，我們將繼續真正專注於此。

I appreciate that. And then separately, just on the TOP 8 program. Can you unpack some of the drivers there of the $100 million in pretax benefits and maybe how quickly those can come out from the expense base over the course of the year?

我很感激。然後單獨地，就在 TOP 8 程序上。你能解開 1 億美元稅前福利的一些驅動因素嗎？也許這些在一年中可以多快從費用基礎中產生？

Yes, I'll go and cover that. I'd say the one dynamic to keep in mind is that we tend to form these programs and generate a year-end run rate benefit that will contribute for each of them. But so on the one hand, the $100 million will build throughout '23 so that it gets to a run rate when you get to the fourth quarter of '23. But keep in mind, we did the same thing with TOP 7. So there's a full year effect of TOP 7 that comes in.

是的，我會去報導的。我想說的是要記住的一個動態是我們傾向於形成這些程序並產生將為每個程序做出貢獻的年終運行率收益。但因此，一方面，1 億美元將在整個 23 年建立，以便在你進入 23 年第四季度時達到運行率。但請記住，我們對 TOP 7 做了同樣的事情。因此 TOP 7 會產生全年效應。

And so when the programs are reasonably similarly sized, you can almost use that as an estimate of what the contribution is in any given year. And so you have maybe a combined $100 million plus contribution from the full year effect of TOP 7 hitting '23 and the in-year effective TOP 8 hitting '23. And so the big drivers of that really are in a couple of places. You've got the traditional areas that we focus on, which is third-party costs and vendor cost management, which is an area that we have -- that's been contributing over the years as well as continue to optimize the branch network. And just being really careful about ensuring that our organizational approach is fit for purpose with respect to what we're trying to accomplish in '23. So those are more traditional areas.

因此，當這些項目的規模相當相似時，你幾乎可以用它來估算任何給定年份的貢獻。因此，前 7 名達到 23 歲的全年效果和年度有效前 8 名達到 23 歲的全年效果可能總共有 1 億美元。因此，這方面的主要驅動力確實存在於幾個地方。你有我們關注的傳統領域，即第三方成本和供應商成本管理，這是我們擁有的一個領域——多年來一直在做出貢獻，並繼續優化分支網絡。並且要非常小心地確保我們的組織方法符合我們在 23 年要實現的目標。所以那些是更傳統的領域。

The other places we're looking at that have been more recent include maturing our Agile delivery model away from a waterfall approach to agile and next-gen technology initiatives continue to contribute as well. We're working towards a data center exit in 2025. We're looking to migrate to the cloud from our internal applications, and that's contributing in '23 as well. But there's a lot of very strategic sort of initiatives that are built within the TOP 8 program and we're excited about it. It's part of who we are, and we're looking forward to deliver against that next year.

我們最近關注的其他地方包括使我們的敏捷交付模型從瀑布方法走向敏捷，下一代技術計劃也在繼續做出貢獻。我們正在努力爭取在 2025 年退出數據中心。我們正在尋求從我們的內部應用程序遷移到雲端，這也在 23 年做出了貢獻。但是在 TOP 8 計劃中建立了很多非常具有戰略意義的舉措，我們對此感到很興奮。這是我們的一部分，我們期待著明年實現這一目標。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

A couple of questions for you folks. Firstly, the deposit betas that you expect to get to the high 30s. Given the pace of change in the fourth quarter, should we -- and your expectation for rate hikes early in the year and not after that, should we expect you get to that in Q1? Any color on that, on the pace of it, especially given how rates have been going up?

有幾個問題要問你們。首先，您希望達到 30 多歲的存款貝塔。鑑於第四季度的變化速度，我們是否應該 - 以及您對今年早些時候而不是之後加息的預期，我們是否應該期望您在第一季度實現這一目標？關於它的任何顏色，它的速度，特別是考慮到利率是如何上升的？

Yes. I mean I think we'll not get there in Q1. That is an over-the-year expectation in terms of the cumulative growth. I mean I think you'll see the growth in cumulative betas begin to moderate and flatten out. You get the big jumps early in the cycle. So we began and go way back to the second quarter of '22, our cumulative beta was 6%. And then you get to the fourth quarter, the cumulative beta is 29. So you've got 23 points just in '22 and you'll have -- and then we're looking for in '23 is another 9 points. So this is going to -- and it will increase over time. You won't get to 38 in the first quarter, will gradually...

是的。我的意思是我認為我們不會在第一季度到達那裡。就累計增長而言，這是一個超過一年的預期。我的意思是我認為你會看到累積貝塔值的增長開始放緩並趨於平穩。您會在周期的早期獲得巨大的飛躍。所以我們開始回到 22 年第二季度，我們的累計貝塔係數是 6%。然後你進入第四節，累計貝塔是 29。所以你在 22 年就得到了 23 分，你會得到——然後我們在 23 年尋找另外 9 分。所以這將 - 並且會隨著時間的推移而增加。你不會在第一節就達到 38，會逐漸...

As deposits tend to replace reprice with a lag. So even after the Fed pauses, you still see a little bit of upward pressure on those betas.

由於存款往往會滯後取代重新定價。因此，即使在美聯儲暫停之後，您仍然會看到這些貝塔值存在一點上行壓力。

That's right.

這是正確的。

But I would -- okay. But then does that mean, Bruce, the bulk of it is probably early on and just a little further increase after that, after the sale is done?

但我會——好吧。但這是否意味著，布魯斯，大部分可能是早期的，只是在銷售完成後進一步增加一點？

I'd say the majority in 1H and it continues to trickle in, in 2H, and that's built into our outlook.

我會說 1H 中的大多數，它會在 2H 中繼續流入，這是我們的展望。

Okay. Different question, a second one. Fee income, your guide of about 7% to 9% growth in full year '23 versus '22. How much of that would you expect would come from capital markets or at least what's in your forecast that you're thinking how much comes from capital markets?

好的。不同的問題，第二個。費用收入，你對 23 年全年與 22 年增長約 7% 至 9% 的指導。您預計其中有多少來自資本市場，或者至少在您的預測中您認為有多少來自資本市場？

Yes, I think there's a big part of it. I mean back to the big drivers, you had capital markets, and you heard about card fees from Brendan and wealth from Brendan as well. So those are the 3 big ones you see mortgage really -- potentially rebounding as well.

是的，我認為其中很大一部分。我的意思是回到大司機，你有資本市場，你聽說過布倫丹的卡費和布倫丹的財富。因此，這些是您真正看到的三大抵押貸款——也可能反彈。

A little bit of rebounding.

一點點反彈。

But a big part of it would come from capital markets from the underwriting perspective and M&A advisory, just as we may have mentioned in the fourth quarter, we saw some deals pushed from 4Q into 1Q. So that's going to support the capital markets business, which, by the way, over the years, has really become a very diversified capital markets business itself. I mean just broadening out M&A advisory, underwriting and loan syndications. Those businesses really tend to really diversify our overall fee outlook. But yes, a good part of it and a good chunk of the growth in '23 comes from capital markets.

但其中很大一部分將來自承銷和併購諮詢的資本市場，正如我們在第四季度可能提到的那樣，我們看到一些交易從第四季度推遲到第一季度。所以這將支持資本市場業務，順便說一句，多年來，它本身已經真正成為一個非常多元化的資本市場業務。我的意思是擴大併購諮詢、承銷和銀團貸款。這些業務確實傾向於真正使我們的整體費用前景多樣化。但是，是的，其中很大一部分以及 23 世紀增長的很大一部分來自資本市場。

There are no further questions in queue. And with that, I'll turn it over to Mr. Van Saun for closing remarks.

隊列中沒有其他問題。然後，我將把它交給 Van Saun 先生作結束語。

Okay. Great. So thanks again, everyone, for dialing in today. We certainly appreciate your interest and support. Have a great day.

好的。偉大的。再次感謝大家今天撥通電話。我們當然感謝您的關注和支持。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。