Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Citizens Financial Group Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Allen, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded. Now I'll turn the call over to Kristin Silberberg, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations. Kristin, you may begin.

大家早上好，歡迎參加 Citizens Financial Group 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。我叫艾倫，今天我就是你的接線員。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，正在記錄此事件。現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係執行副總裁 Kristin Silberberg。克里斯汀，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Allen. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, this morning, our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and CFO, John Woods, will provide an overview of our second quarter results. Brendan Coughlin, Head of Consumer Banking; and Don McCree, Head of Commercial Banking, are also here to provide additional color.

謝謝你，艾倫。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。首先，今天上午，我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Bruce Van Saun；首席財務官 John Woods 將概述我們第二季度的業績。 Brendan Coughlin，個人銀行業務主管；商業銀行業務負責人 Don McCree 也在這裡提供額外的色彩。

We will be referencing our second quarter earnings presentation located on our Investor Relations website. After the presentation, we will be happy to take questions. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. These are outlined for your review on Page 2 of the presentation. We also reference non-GAAP financial measures, so it's important to review our GAAP results on Page 3 of the presentation and the reconciliations in the appendix.

我們將參考位於我們的投資者關係網站上的第二季度收益報告。演講結束後，我們很樂意回答問題。我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期存在重大差異。這些概述在演示文稿的第 2 頁上供您查看。我們還參考了非 GAAP 財務指標，因此請務必查看演示文稿第 3 頁上的 GAAP 結果和附錄中的對賬。

With that, I will hand over to Bruce.

有了這個，我將交給布魯斯。

Thanks, Kristin, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call today. There was a lot going on in Q2 with a focus on closing the Investors acquisition and commencing our New York City Metro integration efforts. In addition, the Fed's move to rein in inflation through higher short rates and quantitative tightening put a spotlight on a joint management of our capital, liquidity and funding position as well as our interest rate management.

謝謝，克里斯汀，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。第二季度發生了很多事情，重點是完成對 Investors 的收購併開始我們的紐約市地鐵整合工作。此外，美聯儲通過提高短期利率和量化緊縮來控制通脹的舉措，使我們的資本、流動性和資金頭寸的聯合管理以及我們的利率管理成為焦點。

The good news is that we made strong progress on all fronts while posting very good financial results. Our underlying EPS for the quarter was $1.14, that's up 7% from the first quarter and ROTCE was 15.5%. Positive sequential operating leverage was 11.7% on an underlying basis, and that's 6.3%, excluding the impact of acquisitions. Our PPNR growth was 45%.

好消息是，我們在各方面都取得了長足的進步，同時公佈了非常好的財務業績。我們本季度的基本每股收益為 1.14 美元，比第一季度增長 7%，ROTCE 為 15.5%。在基本基礎上，正連續經營槓桿率為 11.7%，即 6.3%，不包括收購的影響。我們的 PPNR 增長了 45%。

Driving these strong results was a significant sequential jump in net interest income of 31%. That's 9% ex acquisitions as spot loan growth reached 19%, which is 4% ex acquisitions, and our net interest margin jumped 29 basis points. We are seeing a strong pickup in line utilization in commercial, which has afforded us the opportunity to be more selective in lower returning consumer portfolios like mortgage and auto.

推動這些強勁業績的是淨利息收入連續大幅增長 31%。這是 9% 的收購，因為現貨貸款增長達到 19%，即 4% 的收購，我們的淨息差躍升 29 個基點。我們看到商業中的線路利用率強勁回升，這使我們有機會在抵押貸款和汽車等回報率較低的消費者投資組合中更具選擇性。

Our deposit performance was good as period-end deposits, ex acquisitions, were up 1%. Our fees were relatively resilient, up 2% ex acquisitions, given the diversity of our fee revenue streams. Higher volatility kept capital markets in check though it benefited FX and derivative product revenue, which hit an all-time high.

我們的存款表現良好，期末存款（不包括收購）增長了 1%。鑑於我們的費用收入來源的多樣性，我們的費用相對有彈性，收購前增長了 2%。較高的波動性使資本市場受到控制，儘管它有利於外彙和衍生產品收入，創下歷史新高。

Wealth continued to grow nicely in the quarter, while mortgage revenue was up slightly. We did our usual fine job on expenses and credit performance continues to be excellent. We continue to see favorable trends in key credit metrics on both the commercial and consumer side. At this point, we feel the second half should hold up well with only gradual normalization in loss rates given the solid positioning of our customers today.

本季度財富繼續良好增長，而抵押貸款收入略有上升。我們在費用方面做得很好，信貸表現仍然很好。我們繼續看到商業和消費者方面關鍵信用指標的有利趨勢。在這一點上，鑑於我們今天客戶的穩固定位，我們認為下半年應該會保持良好，損失率只會逐漸正常化。

We currently expect our solid momentum to continue into the second half of 2022. We will continue to benefit from rate rises. Our fees should remain resilient, and we will benefit on expenses from our acquisition synergies and the TOP 7 program. We project positive operating leverage in Q3 and Q4 with ROTCE moving beyond our 14% to 16% target range. The market seems concerned about the rising possibility of a recession in 2023 and the potential for much higher credit costs. At this point, we see slower economic growth as the base assumption for 2023.

我們目前預計我們的強勁勢頭將持續到 2022 年下半年。我們將繼續受益於加息。我們的費用應該保持彈性，我們將從我們的收購協同效應和 TOP 7 計劃中受益。我們預計第三季度和第四季度的運營槓桿率將提高，ROTCE 將超出我們 14% 至 16% 的目標範圍。市場似乎擔心 2023 年經濟衰退的可能性越來越大，以及信貸成本可能會高得多。在這一點上，我們認為經濟增長放緩是 2023 年的基本假設。

And if there is a recession, we believe it should be shallow and short-lived. We are being highly selective on new loan originations, and we've moved several portfolios to held for sale, largely from investors to optimize our balance sheet position. We continue to believe our credit performance will be good on a relative basis should a downturn come. It's an exciting time for Citizens. We have many promising initiatives in flight that we are managing well. We are focusing on areas where we can leverage our strengths and where we have a right to win.

如果出現衰退，我們認為它應該是淺薄和短暫的。我們對新貸款的發放非常挑剔，我們已經將幾個投資組合轉為持有待售，主要來自投資者，以優化我們的資產負債表狀況。我們仍然相信，如果經濟低迷來臨，我們的信用表現將相對良好。對於公民來說，這是一個激動人心的時刻。我們在飛行中有許多有希望的舉措，我們管理得很好。我們專注於我們可以利用我們的優勢以及我們有權獲勝的領域。

The current environment gives us a great opportunity to prove our mettle and deliver prudent, sustainable growth. We certainly feel up to the challenge. With that, let me turn it over to John to cover the financials in more detail. John?

當前的環境為我們提供了一個很好的機會來證明我們的勇氣並實現審慎、可持續的增長。我們當然願意迎接挑戰。有了這個，讓我把它交給約翰來更詳細地介紹財務。約翰？

Thanks, Bruce. Good morning, everyone. First, I'll start with our headlines for the quarter, referencing Slides 4 and 5. We reported underlying net income of $595 million and EPS of $1.14. Our underlying ROTCE for the quarter was 15.5%. Net interest income was up 31% linked quarter driven by a 29 basis point improvement in margin and strong loan growth, including the impact of the HSBC and ISBC transactions.

謝謝，布魯斯。大家，早安。首先，我將從本季度的頭條新聞開始，參考幻燈片 4 和 5。我們報告的基本淨收入為 5.95 億美元，每股收益為 1.14 美元。我們本季度的基本 ROTCE 為 15.5%。在利潤率提高 29 個基點和貸款增長強勁（包括匯豐銀行和 ISBC 交易的影響）的推動下，淨利息收入增長了 31%。

Period-end loans were up 19% linked quarter. Excluding loans added by the HSBC and ISBC transactions, loan growth was a strong 4% led by commercial growth of 6%. Average loans are up 19% linked quarter. Excluding the acquisitions, average loans were up 3% with 5% growth in commercial.

期末貸款環比增長 19%。不包括匯豐銀行和 ISBC 交易增加的貸款，貸款增長強勁 4%，其中商業增長 6%。平均貸款增長 19% 相關季度。不包括收購，平均貸款增長 3%，商業貸款增長 5%。

Underlying fees were up 5% linked quarter or 2% excluding HSBC and ISBC acquisition impacts, reflecting the diversity and resiliency of our fee businesses. Our client hedging business had another exceptional quarter, and we delivered record results in Wealth and Card.

扣除匯豐銀行和 ISBC 收購影響後，基本費用在相關季度上漲 5% 或 2%，反映了我們收費業務的多樣性和彈性。我們的客戶對沖業務又迎來了一個特殊的季度，我們在財富和卡業務方面取得了創紀錄的業績。

Mortgage fees were up slightly and capital market fees were down a bit given continued market volatility. We remain disciplined on expenses, which were up 1% linked quarter, excluding the HSBC and ISBC transactions. Overall, we delivered underlying positive operating leverage of 11.7% linked quarter and that was 6.3%, excluding the HSBC and ISBC transactions.

由於市場持續波動，抵押貸款費用略有上升，資本市場費用略有下降。我們對費用保持嚴格控制，不包括匯豐銀行和 ISBC 的交易，相關季度增長了 1%。總體而言，我們提供了 11.7% 的基本正經營槓桿，即 6.3%，不包括匯豐銀行和 ISBC 交易。

Our underlying efficiency ratio improved to 58%. We recorded an underlying provision for credit losses, excluding ISBC of $71 million, which reflects continued strong credit performance across the retail and commercial portfolios. The underlying credit provision for the quarter excludes $145 million for the double count of CECL provision expense tied to the ISBC transaction.

我們的基本效率比率提高到 58%。我們記錄了信貸損失的基本準備金，不包括 7100 萬美元的 ISBC，這反映了零售和商業投資組合持續強勁的信貸表現。本季度的基本信貸撥備不包括與 ISBC 交易相關的雙重計算 CECL 撥備費用的 1.45 億美元。

Our ACL ratio stands at 1.37% down from 1.43% at the end of the first quarter. Our tangible book value per share was down 6% linked quarter, driven primarily by the impact of rising rates on securities and hedge valuations that impact AOCI. We continue to have a very strong capital position with CET1 at 9.6%, and we have increased our common dividend by 8% to $0.42 a share.

我們的 ACL 比率從第一季度末的 1.43% 下降到 1.37%。我們的每股有形賬面價值在相關季度下降了 6%，主要是受利率上升對證券和對沖估值影響 AOCI 的影響。我們繼續擁有非常強勁的資本狀況，CET1 為 9.6%，我們的普通股息增加了 8%，達到每股 0.42 美元。

On Slide 5, we have provided the HSBC and ISBC contributions to our second quarter results as well as the notable items for the quarter. Also, Slide 21 in the appendix provides a summary of the purchase accounting impacts associated with the ISBC transaction.

在幻燈片 5 上，我們提供了匯豐銀行和 ISBC 對我們第二季度業績的貢獻以及該季度值得注意的項目。此外，附錄中的幻燈片 21 提供了與 ISBC 交易相關的採購會計影響的摘要。

Next, I'll provide some key takeaways for our second quarter results. On Slide 6, net interest income was up 31%, given higher net interest margin and 17% growth in interest-earning assets, including the impact of the HSBC and ISBC transactions. The net interest margin is 3.04%, up 29 basis points, which as you can see on the NIM [walk] in the bottom left-hand side of the slide shows the benefit of higher rates with a 24 basis point increase related to asset yields reflecting the asset sensitivity of our balance sheet and improved securities reinvestment rates.

接下來，我將為我們的第二季度業績提供一些關鍵要點。在幻燈片 6 中，由於淨息差增加和生息資產增長 17%，包括匯豐銀行和 ISBC 交易的影響，淨利息收入增長了 31%。淨息差為 3.04%，上升 29 個基點，正如您在幻燈片左下角的 NIM [walk] 中看到的那樣，顯示了較高利率的好處，與資產收益率相關的 24 個基點增加反映我們資產負債表的資產敏感性和提高的證券再投資率。

There is an 11 basis point benefit from the HSBC and ISBC transactions, largely given the repositioning of the ISBC securities portfolio and the benefit of adding their loans. With rising rates, funding costs reduced the margin 8 basis points, reflecting well-controlled deposit costs. Earning asset yields are up 38 basis points linked quarter, strongly outpacing our interest-bearing deposit costs, which are up only 8 basis points.

匯豐銀行和 ISBC 的交易帶來了 11 個基點的收益，主要是考慮到 ISBC 證券投資組合的重新定位以及增加貸款的好處。隨著利率上升，融資成本降低了 8 個基點，反映出存款成本控制良好。與季度掛鉤的收益資產收益率上升了 38 個基點，大大超過了我們的生息存款成本，後者僅上升了 8 個基點。

Moving to Slide 7. Given the Fed's recent rate hikes and the current market expectation for the Fed funds rate to end the year in the 350 to 375 basis points range, we are confident that we will continue to realize meaningful benefits from rising rates as the forward curve plays out. Our asset sensitivity has driven a significant improvement in NII in the first half of this year, and those benefits will continue to accumulate in the second half of 2022 and compound into 2023.

轉到幻燈片 7。鑑於美聯儲最近的加息以及目前市場對聯邦基金利率年底將在 350 至 375 個基點範圍內的預期，我們相信我們將繼續從加息中獲得有意義的好處，因為向前曲線發揮作用。我們的資產敏感性在今年上半年推動了 NII 的顯著改善，這些收益將在 2022 年下半年繼續累積，並在 2023 年復合。

Since the path of the rate cycle is uncertain, on the top left side of this page, we've provided an estimate of our NII sensitivity to further changes in rates, either up or down from the June 24 forward curve. Our overall asset sensitivity stands at about 2.5% at the end of the second quarter. This is down from 7% for the first quarter, reflecting the incorporation of ISBC's NII base and liability-sensitive profile as well as hedging actions taken to stabilize the margin and protect against downside interest rate risk.

由於利率週期的路徑不確定，在本頁的左上方，我們提供了我們的 NII 對利率進一步變化的敏感性的估計，無論是從 6 月 24 日遠期曲線上升還是下降。在第二季度末，我們的整體資產敏感度約為 2.5%。這比第一季度的 7% 有所下降，反映了 ISBC 的 NII 基數和對負債敏感的情況以及為穩定利潤率和防範利率下行風險而採取的對沖措施。

Our improved NII outlook as well as changes in the balance sheet also contributed to the reduction in asset sensitivity. Essentially, a 25 basis point instantaneous change in the forward curve is worth about $10 million to $15 million a quarter with that balance between the long and short parts of the curve. We began the rate cycle with a strong liquidity profile, deposit costs as low as they have ever been, and our overall funding profile greatly improved, including significant improvements to our deposit mix and capabilities. We will continue to optimize our deposit base and to invest in our capabilities to attract durable customer deposits.

我們改善的 NII 前景以及資產負債表的變化也有助於降低資產敏感性。從本質上講，遠期曲線每 25 個基點的瞬時變化價值約為每季度 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元，曲線的多頭和空頭部分之間保持平衡。我們以強勁的流動性開始了利率週期，存款成本達到了前所未有的低水平，我們的整體資金狀況得到了極大的改善，包括我們的存款組合和能力的顯著改善。我們將繼續優化我們的存款基礎，並投資於我們吸引持久客戶存款的能力。

So far this cycle, with Fed funds increasing 150 basis points since the fourth quarter of '21, we are quite pleased with how our deposit franchise is performing with a cumulative beta of about 6%. On a sequential basis for the second quarter, our beta was 11%. This puts us on track for a 35% cumulative beta through the end of this rate cycle if the forward curve plays out as expected.

到目前為止，這個週期，聯邦基金自 21 年第四季度以來增加了 150 個基點，我們對我們的存款業務的表現非常滿意，累積貝塔係數約為 6%。在第二季度的連續基礎上，我們的貝塔係數為 11%。如果遠期曲線按預期運行，這將使我們在這個利率週期結束時有望實現 35% 的累積貝塔。

Moving on to Slide 8. We posted solid results, demonstrating the strength and diversity of our fee businesses. Capital Markets delivered solid results despite continued market volatility impacting the bond and equity markets. We saw M&A advisory and equity underwriting fees picking up a bit, but these were more than offset by modestly lower loan syndication revenue.

繼續幻燈片 8。我們發布了可靠的結果，展示了我們收費業務的實力和多樣性。儘管市場持續波動影響債券和股票市場，但資本市場仍取得了穩健的業績。我們看到併購諮詢和股權承銷費有所回升，但這些都被銀團貸款收入的小幅下降所抵消。

We continue to see good strength in our pipelines and capital markets fees could rebound nicely in the second half of the year if markets settle down, and there is more certainty regarding the path of the economy. We once again delivered a record performance in our client hedging business, up $9 million linked quarter, driven primarily by FX as we help clients manage their currency exposures as the dollar strengthened during the quarter.

我們繼續看到我們的管道有良好的實力，如果市場穩定下來，資本市場費用可能會在今年下半年很好地反彈，並且經濟發展路徑更加確定。我們的客戶對沖業務再次實現了創紀錄的業績，掛鉤季度增長了 900 萬美元，主要受外匯推動，因為我們幫助客戶在本季度美元走強的情況下管理他們的貨幣風險敞口。

Our interest rate and commodities businesses also performed very well, but were down modestly from record levels in the first quarter. Mortgage fees were up modestly linked quarter given improved servicing income as higher mortgage rates resulted in slower amortization of the MSR. Production fees remained under pressure given lower industry origination volumes with rising rates and seasonal impacts.

我們的利率和大宗商品業務也表現出色，但較第一季度的創紀錄水平略有下降。由於較高的抵押貸款利率導致 MSR 的攤銷速度較慢，因此服務收入有所改善，抵押貸款費用與季度適度增長有關。鑑於行業原產地產量下降、費率上升和季節性影響，生產費用仍面臨壓力。

Strong competition continues to pressure margins. However, there are clear signs that the industry is beginning to reduce capacity, which should benefit margins as we head into the second half of the year. We delivered record Wealth fees, up 8% linked quarter as rising market interest rates supported customer flows into annuity products. Card fees were also a record given seasonally higher transaction volumes.

激烈的競爭繼續對利潤率造成壓力。然而，有明顯跡象表明該行業開始減少產能，隨著我們進入下半年，這將有利於利潤率。由於市場利率上升支持客戶流入年金產品，我們交付了創紀錄的財富費用，掛鉤季度增長 8%。鑑於季節性交易量增加，信用卡費用也創下歷史新高。

On Slide 9, expenses were well controlled, up 1% linked quarter, excluding HSBC and ISBC. Our TOP 7 efficiency program is continuing to make good progress, on track to deliver $100 million of pretax run rate benefits by the end of the year. Period-end loans on Slide 10 were up 19% linked quarter primarily driven by the impact of the ISBC transaction, which closed at the beginning of the quarter. Excluding the impact of the HSBC and ISBC transactions, loan growth was 4% with strong commercial loan growth again this quarter, up 6%, led by C&I as we emphasize strong relationships to optimize risk-adjusted returns.

在幻燈片 9 上，支出得到了很好的控制，連環季度增長 1%，不包括匯豐銀行和 ISBC。我們的 TOP 7 效率計劃繼續取得良好進展，有望在年底前提供 1 億美元的稅前運行率收益。幻燈片 10 上的期末貸款增長了 19%，主要受 ISBC 交易的影響，該交易於本季度初結束。剔除匯豐銀行和 ISBC 交易的影響，貸款增長 4%，本季度商業貸款再次強勁增長，增長 6%，由 C&I 引領，因為我們強調建立牢固的關係以優化風險調整後的回報。

Retail loans were up 1% as we continue to be more selective in consumer lending. Average loans were up 19% linked quarter or 3% excluding the impact of the HSBC and ISBC transactions with 5% growth in commercial led by C&I and 1% growth in retail. In commercial, we continue to see strength in corporate banking originations across every region. Line utilization continued to rebound with an increase of about 300 basis points to 39% on a spot basis, primarily driven by corporate banking with the largest quarterly increase in utilization we have seen since early in the pandemic.

由於我們繼續在消費貸款方面更加挑剔，零售貸款增長了 1%。扣除匯豐銀行和 ISBC 交易的影響，平均貸款環比增長 19% 或 3%，其中以工商業為首的商業增長 5%，零售增長 1%。在商業方面，我們繼續看到各個地區的企業銀行業務的實力。線使用率繼續反彈，即期增長約 300 個基點至 39%，主要受企業銀行業務驅動，這是自大流行初期以來我們看到的最大季度使用率增長。

Our clients are continuing to use their lines to build inventories to get ahead of supply chain issues and rising input prices and some are also looking to pro-rata bank financing as an alternative to the volatile bond markets.

我們的客戶繼續使用他們的生產線來建立庫存，以應對供應鏈問題和不斷上漲的投入價格，一些客戶還希望通過按比例銀行融資來替代動蕩的債券市場。

Concurrent with the ISBC acquisition, we identified certain nonstrategic loan portfolio totaling $2.1 billion which we are in the process of being marketed for sale. These loans were classified as held for sale at quarter end. This will free up capital and enable our relationship bankers to focus on more desirable commercial relationship business in New York Metro.

在收購 ISBC 的同時，我們確定了某些總額為 21 億美元的非戰略性貸款組合，我們正在將其推向市場出售。這些貸款在季度末被歸類為持有待售。這將釋放資本並使我們的關係銀行家能夠專注於紐約地鐵更理想的商業關係業務。

On Slide 11, our period-end deposits were up 13% linked quarter as we added $19.8 billion of deposits from the ISBC transaction. Excluding ISBC and HSBC, period-end deposits were up slightly, while average deposits were down slightly, reflecting seasonal runoff on a decline in commercial (inaudible) deposits.

在幻燈片 11 上，由於我們從 ISBC 交易中增加了 198 億美元的存款，我們的期末存款在相關季度增長了 13%。不包括 ISBC 和 HSBC，期末存款小幅上升，而平均存款小幅下降，反映了商業（聽不清）存款下降導致的季節性徑流。

Moving on to Slide 12. We saw excellent credit results again this quarter across the retail and commercial portfolios. Net charge-offs were at 13 basis points, down 6 basis points linked quarter. Nonperforming loans fell 6 basis points to 54 basis points of total loans linked quarter driven by improvements in C&I, residential real estate and home equity.

繼續幻燈片 12。本季度，我們在零售和商業投資組合中再次看到了出色的信貸業績。淨沖銷為 13 個基點，較上季下降 6 個基點。受 C&I、住宅房地產和房屋淨值改善的推動，不良貸款下降 6 個基點至 54 個基點。

Other credit metrics continued to look excellent across the retail and commercial portfolios and criticized loans as a percentage of the commercial portfolio are stable after incorporating ISBC, but down on a stand-alone basis.

其他信貸指標在零售和商業投資組合中繼續表現出色，並批評貸款在合併 ISBC 後商業投資組合中的百分比穩定，但單獨下降。

On Slide 13, I'll walk through the drivers of the allowance this quarter. We continue to see excellent credit performance across the retail and commercial portfolios. We added to the reserve this quarter to take into account strong commercial loan growth as well as the addition of ISBC. While we aren't seeing any signs of early stress in the portfolio at this point, our allowance takes into account the expectation of a more challenging macroeconomic outlook, given the Fed's rate actions to combat inflation.

在幻燈片 13 上，我將介紹本季度津貼的驅動因素。我們繼續看到零售和商業投資組合的出色信貸表現。我們在本季度增加了準備金，以考慮到強勁的商業貸款增長以及 ISBC 的增加。雖然目前我們沒有看到投資組合出現任何早期壓力的跡象，但考慮到美聯儲為對抗通脹而採取的利率行動，我們考慮到宏觀經濟前景更具挑戰性的預期。

Our overall coverage ratio was 1.37% which is a modest decline from the first quarter, reflecting the strong performance of our retail portfolio and the addition of the ISBC's CRE portfolio, which includes a sizable multifamily component with lower reserve requirements than our legacy portfolios. If you recall, when we adopted CECL at the beginning of 2020, our coverage ratio was 1.47%. To put our current coverage ratio in context, we estimate our pro forma coverage ratio would be slightly lower than the 1.37% level today if we applied our current portfolio mix, incorporating ISBC to our day 1 CECL approach.

我們的整體覆蓋率為 1.37%，較第一季度略有下降，這反映了我們零售投資組合的強勁表現以及 ISBC 的 CRE 投資組合的增加，其中包括一個相當大的多戶家庭組成部分，其準備金要求低於我們的傳統投資組合。如果您還記得，當我們在 2020 年初採用 CECL 時，我們的覆蓋率是 1.47%。為了將我們當前的覆蓋率放在上下文中，我們估計如果我們應用當前的投資組合組合，將 ISBC 納入我們的第 1 天 CECL 方法，我們的備考覆蓋率將略低於今天的 1.37% 水平。

Importantly, our coverage of nonaccrual loans strengthened 256%, up from 238% in the first quarter. We feel good about the improvements to the loan portfolio we've made over the past few years and the overall positioning of our credit risk.

重要的是，我們對非應計貸款的覆蓋率從第一季度的 238% 提高了 256%。我們對過去幾年對貸款組合的改進以及對信用風險的整體定位感到滿意。

Moving to Slide 14. We maintained excellent balance sheet strength. Our CET1 ratio remained strong at 9.6%. Following the release of the Fed's DFAST stress results last month, our Board increased our common share repurchase authorization to $1 billion. And today, we announced an 8% increase in our common dividend to $0.42 a share. Our fundamental priorities for deploying capital have not changed, and you can expect us to remain extremely disciplined in how we manage the company.

轉到幻燈片 14。我們保持了出色的資產負債表實力。我們的 CET1 比率保持在 9.6% 的強勁水平。繼上個月美聯儲發布 DFAST 壓力結果後，我們的董事會將我們的普通股回購授權增加到 10 億美元。今天，我們宣布將普通股息提高 8% 至每股 0.42 美元。我們部署資本的基本優先事項沒有改變，您可以期望我們在管理公司方面保持極其自律。

Shifting gears a bit. On Slide 15, you'll see some examples of the progress we made against the key strategic initiatives and other work we are doing across the bank to better serve our customers and make Citizens a great place to work. As you know, we closed the acquisition of ISBC at the beginning of April, and we are very focused on a successful integration. I am proud of the work our teams have done related to the acquisition. We onboarded more than 1,600 new colleagues through our HR systems on Day 1. And in the second quarter, we began originating mortgages on our systems.

稍微換個檔次。在幻燈片 15 上，您將看到我們在關鍵戰略舉措方面取得的進展以及我們在全行開展的其他工作，以更好地服務於我們的客戶並使 Citizens 成為一個理想的工作場所。如您所知，我們在 4 月初完成了對 ISBC 的收購，我們非常專注於成功整合。我為我們的團隊在此次收購方面所做的工作感到自豪。第一天，我們通過人力資源系統招募了 1,600 多名新同事。在第二季度，我們開始在我們的系統上發起抵押貸款。

We have a number of conversions planned over the remainder of the year, and we are on track to finish in the first quarter of 2023. We have included a high-level integration time line in the appendix on Slide 22. Importantly, we are on target to achieve $130 million in run rate net expense synergies by the end of 2023, of which approximately 70% will be achieved by year-end 2022.

我們計劃在今年剩餘時間內進行多次轉換，我們有望在 2023 年第一季度完成。我們在幻燈片 22 的附錄中包含了一個高級集成時間線。重要的是，我們正在目標是到 2023 年底實現 1.3 億美元的運行率淨費用協同效應，其中約 70% 將在 2022 年底之前實現。

The total represents about 30% of ISBC's 2021 expense base. Also, ISBC integration costs to be incurred through 2023 are now expected to come in below the estimated level of deal that were announced. We recently released our fifth annual corporate responsibility report, which highlights our progress on ESG initiatives. The report highlights a number of significant milestones related to our sustainability efforts, including our progress towards targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

總額約佔 ISBC 2021 年費用基數的 30%。此外，到 2023 年將產生的 ISBC 整合成本現在預計將低於宣布的估計交易水平。我們最近發布了第五份年度企業責任報告，重點介紹了我們在 ESG 舉措方面取得的進展。該報告強調了與我們的可持續發展努力相關的一些重要里程碑，包括我們在減少溫室氣體排放目標方面取得的進展。

We also announced that we've joined the Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials, which will accelerate our efforts to measure and disclose finance emissions. Later this year, we'll release our first TCFD climate report, which will describe our climate strategy in more detail. The report also describes our commitment to the communities we serve, and there are a few recent examples here on the slide with some of the community partnerships we are engaged with in Boston and most recently in Chinatown and Queens, New York.

我們還宣布我們已加入碳會計財務夥伴關係，這將加快我們衡量和披露財務排放的努力。今年晚些時候，我們將發布我們的第一份 TCFD 氣候報告，其中將更詳細地描述我們的氣候戰略。該報告還描述了我們對所服務社區的承諾，幻燈片上有一些最近的例子，其中包括我們在波士頓以及最近在紐約唐人街和皇后區參與的一些社區合作夥伴關係。

On the consumer side, we are excited about continuing our expansion in Florida with the opening of our latest Wealth Center in Naples. We recently released a mobile app version of Citizens Access, which we think will be very popular with our customers. And we are very proud that our Citizens Pay point-of-sale offering was awarded Best Innovation by the Banking Tech Awards.

在消費者方面，我們很高興能在佛羅里達州繼續擴張，在那不勒斯開設我們最新的財富中心。我們最近發布了 Citizens Access 的移動應用程序版本，我們認為它會受到客戶的歡迎。我們非常自豪我們的 Citizens Pay 銷售點產品被銀行技術獎授予最佳創新獎。

Lastly, our relentless focus on customer service, driving results as our ATM channel moved up 8 places in the J.D. Power rankings. On the commercial side, we continue to perform well in the league tables, consistently ranking in the top 10 as a middle market and sponsor book runner. The diversification in our business model is delivering results with record revenue in our client FX hedging business. We also closed the DH Capital acquisition this quarter strengthening our capabilities in the Internet infrastructure, software and next-generation IT services and communications sectors.

最後，我們對客戶服務的不懈關注，推動了我們的 ATM 渠道在 J.D. Power 排名中上升 8 位。在商業方面，我們繼續在排行榜中表現出色，作為中間市場和讚助商賬簿管理人持續排名前 10。我們業務模式的多樣化正在為我們的客戶外匯對沖業務帶來創紀錄的收入。我們還在本季度完成了對 DH Capital 的收購，以加強我們在互聯網基礎設施、軟件和下一代 IT 服務和通信領域的能力。

On the right side of the page, we've included some digital metrics. Mobile active users are up over 20% year-over-year. Digital deposits and Zelle transactions are up over 30%, and we are seeing great success with the customer uptake of automated client service through virtual chat sessions.

在頁面的右側，我們包含了一些數字指標。移動活躍用戶同比增長超過 20%。數字存款和 Zelle 交易增長了 30% 以上，我們看到客戶通過虛擬聊天會話採用自動化客戶服務取得了巨大成功。

We are very excited with how our digital first approach is increasing engagement with our customers and how this is all translating into a better experience and higher satisfaction. Moving to Slide 16. I'll walk through the outlook for the third quarter.

我們對我們的數字優先方法如何增加與客戶的互動以及如何轉化為更好的體驗和更高的滿意度感到非常興奮。轉到幻燈片 16。我將介紹第三季度的前景。

Since we closed ISBC at the beginning of the second quarter, our third quarter outlook includes all our recent acquisitions. We expect NII to be up 5.5% to 7%, driven by the benefit of higher rates and solid loan growth. We are very focused on optimizing capital deployment. In consumer, we will reduce originations in mortgage, auto and education refi while seeking to grow in home equity, in school education and Citizens Pay and Card.

由於我們在第二季度初關閉了 ISBC，我們的第三季度展望包括我們最近的所有收購。在較高利率和穩健貸款增長的推動下，我們預計 NII 將增長 5.5% 至 7%。我們非常注重優化資本配置。在消費者方面，我們將減少抵押貸款、汽車和教育再融資的起源，同時尋求增加房屋淨值、學校教育和公民支付和卡。

In commercial, we expect to see further increases in line utilization, but we'll be mindful of balancing growth and returns given current macro uncertainty. These are expected to be broadly stable though upside exists if capital markets stabilize. Noninterest expense is expected to be up approximately 1%.

在商業方面，我們預計線路利用率將進一步增加，但鑑於當前宏觀不確定性，我們將注意平衡增長和回報。如果資本市場穩定，則存在上行空間，但預計這些將大致穩定。非利息費用預計將增長約 1%。

We expect to continue strong sequential positive operating leverage in the third quarter and ROTCE above our medium target range of 14% to 16%. Net charge-offs are expected to be approximately 20 basis points. We expect our CET1 ratio to land around the midpoint of our operating range at 9.75%. And our tax rate should come in a bit lower at approximately 22%.

我們預計第三季度將繼續保持強勁的連續正經營槓桿，ROTCE 將高於我們 14% 至 16% 的中等目標範圍。預計淨沖銷約為 20 個基點。我們預計我們的 CET1 比率將落在我們運營範圍的中點附近，即 9.75%。我們的稅率應該會低一點，約為 22%。

With respect to full year results, we expect PPNR to be in line with our April guidance. From a revenue standpoint, we are seeing higher NII given net interest margin, reaching approximately 3.25% in the fourth quarter, driven by higher rates and loan growth within our 20% to 22% guidance range. This will be offset by lower key revenue largely in capital markets and mortgage.

關於全年業績，我們預計 PPNR 將與我們 4 月份的指引一致。從收入的角度來看，鑑於淨息差，我們看到更高的 NII，在我們 20% 至 22% 的指導範圍內的更高利率和貸款增長的推動下，第四季度達到約 3.25%。這將被資本市場和抵押貸款的主要收入減少所抵消。

Expenses will be well controlled, which will result in full year operating leverage of at least 400 basis points and a fourth quarter efficiency ratio of sub-55%. We also expect the net charge-off ratio to come in lower than we guided in April given continued favorable trends.

費用將得到很好的控制，這將導致全年運營槓桿至少達到 400 個基點，第四季度效率低於 55%。鑑於持續的有利趨勢，我們還預計淨沖銷率將低於我們 4 月份的指導。

To sum up on Slide 17. This was a very solid quarter, and we are optimistic about the outlook for the rest of 2022 and beyond. We are off to a running start in New York with the close of our 2 acquisitions there, and we expect significant benefits in our net interest income from the higher rate environment and strong commercial loan growth. The strength and diversity of our fee business is driving solid results and our capital markets business, in particular, is well positioned for when markets stabilize given strong pipelines. We will continue to focus on executing against our strategic priorities and building a top-performing bank that delivers for all our stakeholders.

總結幻燈片 17。這是一個非常穩健的季度，我們對 2022 年剩餘時間及以後的前景持樂觀態度。隨著我們在紐約的 2 筆收購的結束，我們在紐約開始了一個良好的開端，我們預計高利率環境和強勁的商業貸款增長將為我們的淨利息收入帶來顯著收益。我們收費業務的實力和多樣性正在推動穩健的業績，尤其是我們的資本市場業務在市場穩定時處於有利地位，因為有強大的管道。我們將繼續專注於執行我們的戰略重點，並建立一家為所有利益相關者提供服務的最佳銀行。

With that, I'll hand it back over to Bruce.

有了這個，我會把它交給布魯斯。

Okay. Thank you, John. Operator, let's open it up for Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，約翰。接線員，讓我們打開它進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question will come from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

您的第一個問題將來自 John Pancari 與 Evercore 的對話。

Just on the loan front, I guess it's also a credit question. I know you indicated that you're being more selective in select areas of consumer lending. Can you maybe give some color there in terms of what areas are you becoming more selective, what you're seeing that's making you become more selective? Or is it just actually the broader backdrop? And what that could mean for growth in the consumer portfolios.

就貸款方面而言，我想這也是一個信用問題。我知道您表示您在消費貸款的特定領域更具選擇性。你能不能就你在哪些方面變得更有選擇性，你所看到的讓你變得更有選擇性的方面給出一些顏色？或者它實際上只是更廣泛的背景？這對消費者投資組合的增長可能意味著什麼。

Yes. Well, let me start, and then I'll go to Brendan and then John, I'm sure might want to chime in. But I think we have the potential to continue to grow in consumer maybe at a faster pace than would be ideal in the current environment. So we're seeing a lot of growth right now on the commercial side line utilization picking up. And I think in light of the environment that we're seeing out there and transitioning in the investors' balance sheet, just making sure we're focusing on allocation of capital to the highest and best uses and not putting a strain on deposit growth as we're going through this higher rate environment is the game plan at this point.

是的。好吧，讓我開始吧，然後我會去 Brendan，然後是 John，我肯定會想插話。但我認為我們有潛力繼續在消費者方面增長，可能比理想的速度更快在當前環境下。因此，我們現在看到商業副線利用率的回升有很大的增長。我認為，鑑於我們所看到的環境和投資者資產負債表的轉變，只要確保我們專注於將資本分配給最高和最佳用途，而不是對存款增長造成壓力我們正在經歷這個更高速率的環境是目前的遊戲計劃。

So when we look into the consumer world, clearly, mortgages and auto are areas where we've seen a lot of growth over the past couple of years. We're going to basically put mortgage more on a stable path and start to reduce our originations in auto. Those are really return costs. It's a return on capital call where we think we have opportunities to grow in areas that deliver better returns would be things like HELOC, like the in-school student and then also card and Citizens Pay.

因此，當我們審視消費世界時，很明顯，抵押貸款和汽車是我們在過去幾年中看到大量增長的領域。我們將基本上將抵押貸款更多地放在穩定的道路上，並開始減少我們對汽車的起源。這些確實是退貨成本。這是資本呼籲的回報，我們認為我們有機會在提供更好回報的領域發展，比如 HELOC，比如在校學生，然後還有卡和公民支付。

So I think overall, we'll still see some net modest growth, but we're going to take some pluses and some minuses here and really be focused on capital allocation. So with that, Brendan, do you want to add to that?

所以我認為總體而言，我們仍然會看到一些淨溫和增長，但我們將在這裡採取一些優點和一些缺點，並真正專注於資本配置。那麼，布倫丹，你想補充一下嗎？

Yes. I guess just strategically, what I'd add is I think this is a natural pivot point for the journey of our strategy. We're at the early stages of our IPO, everything was accretive for the most part. And so we've really scaled up our business. And I believe we have one of the most well run and diversified consumer lending franchises amongst our peer set for sure.

是的。我想只是在戰略上，我要補充的是，我認為這是我們戰略之旅的自然支點。我們處於首次公開募股的早期階段，大部分情況下一切都是增值的。所以我們真的擴大了我們的業務。而且我相信我們肯定擁有同行中經營最良好和最多樣化的消費貸款特許經營權之一。

And if we enter this next phase of our journey, capital allocation is king, and we're making some strategic pivots. I'd also say -- this is not necessarily brand-new news. If you recall, prior to COVID, we had already started signaling we were going to start to put auto, as an example, on a path to reduce and get back into tier levels for concentration.

如果我們進入下一階段的旅程，資本配置才是王道，我們正在製定一些戰略支點。我還要說 - 這不一定是全新的新聞。如果您還記得，在 COVID 之前，我們已經開始發出信號，例如，我們將開始將汽車放在減少並重新集中註意力的道路上。

And through COVID, we found some great vintages of returns and market disruption. So the benefit of the diversity of our business model allowed us to flex up through COVID and now we're sort of returning to our original glide path down of auto, given that -- the auto business is naturally in sort of steady state, a lower return and less relationship focused. And then to Bruce's point on mortgage, we've been outgrowing the Citizens balance sheet on mortgage growth for quite some time. And so we would like for that to grow no faster than the rate of the bank, just given where we're at right now on interest rates and a long duration nature of that business.

通過 COVID，我們發現了一些很好的回報和市場混亂的年份。因此，我們的商業模式多樣性的好處使我們能夠通過 COVID 靈活調整，現在我們正在回到我們最初的汽車下滑路徑，因為汽車業務自然處於某種穩定狀態，較低的回報和較少的關係關注。然後到布魯斯關於抵押貸款的觀點，我們已經超過公民資產負債表的抵押貸款增長相當長一段時間了。所以我們希望它的增長速度不超過銀行的速度，只要考慮到我們現在的利率和該業務的長期性質。

And so really making sure we're protecting our balance sheet for long duration for real relationship focused lending and customers is key. The other place we're curtailing a bit is some fintech partnerships that we've had over the years that served us well and added operating leverage allowed us to invest back in the bank, but being much more relationship focused and our capital allocation is king. But we're very excited, as Bruce pointed out, over a couple places of our franchise. HELOC being one, where we believe we're the #1 originator in the U.S. for HELOC origination.

因此，真正確保我們長期保護我們的資產負債表以實現真正以關係為中心的貸款和客戶是關鍵。我們削減的另一個地方是我們多年來建立的一些金融科技合作夥伴關係，它們為我們提供了良好的服務，並增加了運營槓桿，使我們能夠重新投資於銀行，但更加註重關係，我們的資本配置才是王道.但正如布魯斯指出的那樣，我們對我們特許經營的幾個地方感到非常興奮。 HELOC 是其中之一，我們相信我們是 HELOC 起源在美國的第一大發起者。

Credit quality is extremely good as super prime as it gets, 780 FICO, [60 or less] CLTVs and we're poised to capitalize on that. And the in-school student product, as Bruce pointed out, is coming back strong as the effects of COVID wear off a little bit on student enrollment and then Citizens Pay, we do have aspirations for medium-term growth in that product. So I think we're well positioned. We can flex up. We're not taking down muscle mass, just making some capital allocation decisions as we optimize the balance sheet.

信用質量非常好，因為它得到了超級優質，780 FICO，[60 或更少] CLTV，我們準備利用這一點。正如布魯斯所指出的那樣，在校學生產品正在強勢回歸，因為 COVID 對學生入學率和公民支付的影響逐漸減弱，我們確實希望該產品實現中期增長。所以我認為我們的定位很好。我們可以彎曲。我們並沒有減少肌肉量，只是在優化資產負債表時做出一些資本分配決策。

I think we said a lot, John, anything to add Okay. I think we're good.

我想我們說了很多，約翰，有什麼要補充的 好的。我認為我們很好。

And then just separately on credit again. Just I know you had indicated in your outlook that you do expect some economic slowing as you look into the rest of this year into '23, but also that your reserve does consider a degree of that. How do you think about what you could potentially see to begin to build the reserve more meaningfully here? And if that does take hold, where do you think that reserve could traject over time? What do you think is a fair level given your economic outlook?

然後再次單獨賒購。只是我知道你在你的展望中表示，當你展望 23 年的剩餘時間時，你確實預計經濟會放緩，但你的儲備確實在一定程度上考慮了這一點。您如何看待在這裡開始更有意義地建立保護區的潛在可能性？如果這確實成立，你認為隨著時間的推移，儲備會走向何方？鑑於您的經濟前景，您認為公平的水平是多少？

I'll kick off and hand it quickly to John. But one of the things we pointed out was that we're about where the day 1 reserve would have been had we incorporated Investors into those numbers. So this [1.37] ratio. It's down from 1.47. But if you look at the shift in some of the asset composition, we're about at day 1. And we have incorporated a Moody's scenario that does have a GDP slowdown and higher recession risk into that scenario. So I would say, absent a meaningful change in outlook that we could probably hang around this neighborhood for a while. So anyway, that would be my top of the house view. But John, for more detail, please?

我會開始並迅速把它交給約翰。但我們指出的一件事是，如果我們將投資者納入這些數字，我們將處於第一天準備金的位置。所以這個 [1.37] 比率。低於 1.47。但是，如果您查看某些資產構成的變化，我們大約在第一天。我們已經將穆迪的情景納入了該情景，該情景確實存在 GDP 放緩和更高的衰退風險。所以我想說，如果沒有有意義的前景變化，我們可能會在這個社區閒逛一段時間。所以無論如何，這將是我的房子的頂部視圖。但是約翰，請提供更多詳細信息？

Yes, sure. I mean I think that's right. I mean I think our base scenario this quarter really relies predominantly on a mild recession, which would last into sort of into next year. So I think we're covering that part of it. We even layered in certain aspects of the portfolio a more severe recession. That's also built into where we are. And to Bruce's point, the mix shift in our portfolio has been extremely positive over the last couple of years.

是的，當然。我的意思是我認為這是對的。我的意思是，我認為我們本季度的基本情景實際上主要依賴於溫和的衰退，這種衰退將持續到明年。所以我認為我們正在涵蓋其中的一部分。我們甚至在投資組合的某些方面將更嚴重的衰退分層。這也是我們所在的地方。在布魯斯看來，我們投資組合的組合轉變在過去幾年中非常積極。

So when you fast forward from the first quarter of 2020, the beginning of 2020 to the -- here in the second quarter of '22, our mix profile is just much better. And so you can almost think about the fact that we're sort of back to the beginning where we have some uncertainty and some negative scenarios priced in. And without a significant deterioration in the macro as Bruce indicated, we're lucky to be in this range as you get into the end of the year.

因此，當您從 2020 年第一季度、2020 年初快進到 22 年第二季度時，我們的混合狀況會好得多。因此，您幾乎可以想到這樣一個事實，即我們有點回到了開始，我們有一些不確定性和一些負面情況已經被計入了價格。並且沒有像布魯斯所說的那樣宏觀惡化，我們很幸運能夠進入當你進入年底時，這個範圍。

And I think it makes sense. If you just step back and think about the consumers in really good shape, still has a lot of liquidity. Companies have refashioned their business models coming out of COVID. They're all in pretty good shape and contending with inflation and supply chain and trying to maintain their margins. So historically, if you have a good jump-off point, you go through a shallow recession, bank charge-off rates don't go up all that much. So I think you'd have to see a meaningful change in outlook for us to come off that view.

我認為這是有道理的。如果你只是退後一步想想消費者的狀況真的很好，仍然有很多流動性。公司已經從 COVID 中重塑了他們的商業模式。他們都處於相當良好的狀態，並與通貨膨脹和供應鏈作鬥爭，並試圖保持他們的利潤。所以從歷史上看，如果你有一個很好的起點，你就會經歷一次輕微的衰退，銀行的沖銷率不會上升那麼多。所以我認為你必須看到前景發生有意義的變化，我們才能擺脫這種觀點。

Your next question will come from Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題將來自 Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler。

Maybe just some additional thoughts on how you see deposit cost pressures playing out. I think we can get a pretty good sense from Slide 7 how you see the full year sort of trajecting and was glad to see you reiterate the 35% through-the-cycle beta expectation. But as we look through the remainder of the year, where specifically do you see the pressures that get you to the 25% to 30% by year-end. And then maybe if you can flush out your thinking on deposit cost dynamics once the Fed stops raising rates?

也許只是關於您如何看待存款成本壓力的一些額外想法。我認為我們可以從幻燈片 7 中很好地了解您如何看待全年的軌跡，並且很高興看到您重申 35% 的整個週期 beta 預期。但是，當我們回顧今年剩餘的時間時，您會看到哪些壓力讓您在年底前達到 25% 到 30%。那麼，一旦美聯儲停止加息，你是否可以徹底擺脫對存款成本動態的思考？

Yes, I'll take that. I mean I think the best way to describe that. I mean, we articulated that our cumulative beta 6% through the second quarter, better than we expected. So we're feeling good about where we're starting off this rate cycle. Our outlook indicates a deposit beta getting into the 25% to 30% range by the end of the year, which implies the sequential betas in the second half in quarters being around mid-30s. So that's how that math would play out. So that's how that trajectory would work.

是的，我會接受的。我的意思是我認為最好的方式來描述這一點。我的意思是，我們明確表示到第二季度我們的累積 beta 為 6%，好於我們的預期。所以我們對我們從這個利率週期開始的地方感覺很好。我們的展望表明，到年底存款貝塔值將進入 25% 至 30% 的範圍，這意味著下半年每個季度的連續貝塔值在 30 年代中期左右。所以這就是數學將如何發揮作用。所以這就是這條軌蹟的運作方式。

The drivers of that are predominantly on the commercial side of the business, but as expected, Consumer and retail deposits are incredibly well performing and well behaved in terms of deposit betas, and we expect that to continue throughout the rest of the year. We have a little bit of room on the balance sheet for Citizens Access. And all of that has been incorporated into our outlook for the 25% to 30% by the end of the year and for the approximate 35% through the whole cycle.

其驅動因素主要是業務的商業方面，但正如預期的那樣，消費者和零售存款的表現令人難以置信，並且在存款貝塔方面表現良好，我們預計這種情況將在今年餘下時間繼續存在。我們在 Citizens Access 的資產負債表上有一點空間。所有這些都已納入我們對年底前 25% 至 30% 以及整個週期約 35% 的展望中。

Deposit betas will continue to rise as you get into '23, and that's the difference between the approximate 35 and the 25 to 30 that we're talking about. And they tend to continue to rise when the Fed stops, assuming that the Fed doesn't start easing immediately thereafter, right? So the last cycle, we had the Fed end of the cycle over the next quarter, we were easing. And so that sort of clipped off the lag effect that you would typically see in deposits.

隨著您進入 23 世紀，存款 beta 將繼續上升，這就是我們所說的大約 35 和 25 到 30 之間的差異。當美聯儲停止時，它們往往會繼續上升，假設美聯儲不會立即開始寬鬆，對吧？所以上一個週期，我們讓美聯儲在下個季度結束這個週期，我們正在放鬆。這樣就消除了您通常在存款中看到的滯後效應。

But if the Fed stops and stands [flat] then you would see deposit costs continue to rise for another quarter or 2 after the last Fed hike. But I should hasten to add that, that there's the loan beta side of this equation. And the loan beta side of it is loan betas are basically rising, and they will continue to rise into the Fed tightening cycle and even after the Fed stops and our, in particular, all the tailwind from some of the term fixed lending that often really gain steam when you get to the end of the Fed tightening cycle, that's really what continues to drive net interest margin rising which we would say would continue to rise throughout '23 even if the Fed continues to rise given the fact that loan betas would exceed deposit betas.

但是，如果美聯儲停止並保持[持平]，那麼你會看到存款成本在美聯儲上次加息後繼續上升一個季度或兩個季度。但我應該趕緊補充一點，這個等式有貸款測試版。它的貸款貝塔值是貸款貝塔值基本上在上升，並且它們將繼續上升到美聯儲的緊縮週期，甚至在美聯儲停止之後，特別是我們的一些固定貸款期限的順風，通常真的當您在美聯儲緊縮週期結束時獲得動力，這確實是繼續推動淨息差上升的原因，我們會說即使美聯儲繼續上升，考慮到貸款貝塔將超過存款貝塔。

Okay. Perfect. That's great color. And I guess along those lines of sort of more all-encompassing rate sensitivity. So I guess you're a little less asset sensitive now with ISBC in there. I think a couple of moving parts with the hedging. How would you say your overall rate sensitivity changes from here? Or is this sort of kind of a good steady state for where we're right now?

好的。完美的。這顏色真好。我猜想沿著這些路線更全面的利率敏感性。所以我猜你現在有了 ISBC，對資產的敏感度就降低了。我認為對沖有幾個活動部分。你會如何說你的整體利率敏感度從這裡發生了變化？或者對於我們現在所處的位置來說，這是一種很好的穩定狀態嗎？

Yes. Let me jump in. It's Bruce, and I'll give it back to John. But I think what we've tried to do, Scott, is find that sweet spot where we still have asset sensitivity sufficient to participate if the Fed has to keep going beyond what's expected. But also we like this level of NIM and this level of NII. And so if, in fact, a recession is in the offing and then rates turned down, we've locked in a fair amount of that NII for a good period of time. So just trying to get that balance right where we take away the downside and allow ourselves to continue to participate in the upside is where we try to land it over the quarter. John?

是的。讓我跳進去。我是布魯斯，我會把它還給約翰。但我認為，斯科特，我們試圖做的是找到一個最佳點，如果美聯儲必須繼續超出預期，我們仍然有足夠的資產敏感性參與。但我們也喜歡這個級別的 NIM 和這個級別的 NII。因此，如果事實上，經濟衰退即將來臨，然後利率下降，我們已經在相當長的一段時間內鎖定了相當數量的 NII。因此，只是試圖在我們消除不利因素並讓自己繼續參與有利因素的地方取得平衡，這就是我們試圖在本季度實現平衡的地方。約翰？

Yes, I agree with that. And the -- I guess the point is without management actions as you think about how the balance sheet unfolds from here. A big decline in the quarter really was just pulling in ISBC, just the base NII alone, reduces your asset sensitivity. So you just have a bigger base on that -- from that percentage to be calculated. But so that was the source of the decline primarily and our management's actions.

是的，我同意這一點。而且 - 我想關鍵是沒有管理行動，因為您考慮資產負債表如何從這裡展開。本季度的大幅下降實際上只是拉動了 ISBC，僅基礎 NII 就降低了您的資產敏感性。所以你有一個更大的基礎——從這個百分比來計算。但這主要是下降的根源和我們管理層的行動。

So if you don't -- if you take away management's actions looking forward, actually, our asset sensitivity would tend to begin to rise again. As mentioned earlier, the rotation out of consumer lending into a lot of the consumer commercial lending. And even within consumer lending, the fact that HELOC is a big driver, which is a floating rate product. You really are reestablishing asset sensitivity as things -- as the balance sheet unfolds in the coming quarters. All of that is absent management's actions, right? And so that's really going to tell the tale about where we land things.

因此，如果你不這樣做——如果你取消管理層的前瞻性行動，實際上，我們的資產敏感性往往會再次開始上升。如前所述，大量的消費貸款輪換出消費商業貸款。即使在消費貸款領域，HELOC 也是一個很大的推動力，它是一種浮動利率產品。隨著資產負債表在未來幾個季度的展開，您確實正在重新建立資產敏感性。所有這一切都沒有管理層的行動，對吧？所以這真的會講述我們在哪裡降落的故事。

If we get towards the end of the year, it -- and if inflation still remains stubbornly high, that will tell us where we take the balance sheet under that scenario. If it feels like June was peak inflation, as you get to the end of the year, you would see us wanting to lock in a little bit more. So we'll just see how it plays out. But naturally underpinning the balance sheet is some upward lift on asset sensitivity.

如果我們到了年底，它 - 如果通脹仍然居高不下，這將告訴我們在這種情況下我們將資產負債表放在哪裡。如果感覺 6 月份是通脹高峰，那麼當你到年底時，你會看到我們想要鎖定更多。所以我們將看看它是如何發揮作用的。但自然支撐資產負債表的是資產敏感性的一些向上提升。

Your next question will come from Peter Winter with Wedbush Securities.

您的下一個問題將來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Peter Winter。

I just wanted to follow up on Scott's question regarding the deposits. But can you just talk about how you're thinking about deposit growth in the second half of this year versus the second quarter?

我只是想跟進斯科特關於存款的問題。但是您能否談談您如何看待今年下半年與第二季度的存款增長？

Yes. I think the -- you've got a big driver being commercial, right? And there's 2 drivers there. One is the fact that there was some surge in the commercial business that has been running off. And frankly, most of that's been run off by the end of June. It's down to a relatively smaller level now and that was a driver, also a driver is the natural seasonality of our deposit flows, which tends to have 2Q as one of the lower points during the year. So when you think about through the rest of the year, they'll be the broad continuing to execute against all the investments we've made over multiple years in driving consumer deposits and also the natural uplift and frankly, driving commercial as well. But the natural uplift at the second half tends to deliver in the commercial side of the business from a seasonality standpoint and lower drag from surge runoff. So that's how we see the second half playing out.

是的。我認為 - 你有一個重要的商業驅動因素，對吧？那裡有2個司機。一是商業業務出現了一些激增，但一直在流失。坦率地說，其中大部分已在 6 月底前用完。它現在下降到一個相對較小的水平，這是一個驅動因素，也是一個驅動因素，我們存款流動的自然季節性，往往將第二季度作為一年中的較低點之一。因此，當您考慮今年餘下的時間時，它們將繼續執行我們多年來在推動消費者存款以及自然增長方面所做的所有投資，坦率地說，也會推動商業。但從季節性的角度來看，下半年的自然提升往往會在業務的商業方面產生影響，並降低激增徑流的阻力。所以這就是我們看到下半場比賽的方式。

And how much is in...?

裡面有多少……？

Yes, just to make that clear. So the net would be -- we'd be expecting to resume growth in the second half. And I think that would be led by commercial growth, but consumer also would expect to see some growth as well.

是的，只是為了說明這一點。因此，網絡將是-我們預計下半年將恢復增長。我認為這將由商業增長帶動，但消費者也希望看到一些增長。

And you gave some color on the moving parts on loans in the third quarter going to be led by commercial. But I'm just wondering if you could just be a little bit more specific on the type of growth rates you're expecting on commercial versus consumer and maybe line utilization in the third quarter?

您對第三季度將由商業主導的貸款的活動部分給出了一些顏色。但我只是想知道您是否可以更具體地說明您對商業與消費者的預期增長率類型，以及第三季度的生產線利用率？

Yes. Well, I mean I think the -- in the second quarter, just talking about the jump off here, may be helpful because in the second quarter, we had -- we had -- on the commercial side of the house, we had 5% average growth. But on a spot basis, we had 6% growth. So you can see that what that implies is that you're likely to see commercial be a big driver in the second quarter. So you're...

是的。好吧，我的意思是我認為 - 在第二季度，這裡只是談論跳躍，可能會有所幫助，因為在第二季度，我們有 - 我們有 - 在房子的商業方面，我們有 5 % 平均增長率。但就現貨而言，我們有 6% 的增長。因此，您可以看到，這意味著您可能會看到商業廣告在第二季度成為主要推動力。所以你是...

In The Third quarter.

在第三季度。

Yes. I'm sorry, in the third quarter. Sorry, yes, you see commercial being a big driver into the third quarter. I think you're going to see puts and takes in consumer where you see home equity and some of the other categories that we like to see drive things in card and a little bit of mortgage driving it maybe being offset by auto and student a little bit. So that's how I would articulate it.

是的。對不起，在第三季度。抱歉，是的，您認為商業廣告是第三季度的主要推動力。我認為你會看到消費者的投入和接受，你會看到房屋淨值和我們喜歡看到的其他一些類別推動信用卡和一點抵押貸款推動它可能會被汽車和學生抵消一點少量。所以這就是我要表達的方式。

Utilization continues to increase, but it's been about 50-50 utilization and other commercial growth. And so I suspect that, that will be the color into 3Q as well. Utilization driving about half of it and the other half coming from outside of utilization. But again, I'd say 3Q driven primarily by commercial loans, maybe a similar amount of the loan growth percentage that you saw in 2Q.

利用率繼續增加，但它的利用率約為 50-50 和其他商業增長。所以我懷疑，這也將成為 3Q 的顏色。利用率驅動其中大約一半，另一半來自利用率之外。但同樣，我會說第三季度主要由商業貸款推動，可能與第二季度看到的貸款增長百分比相似。

And one thing about commercial, and maybe I could ask Don to comment on this is that when you kind of look at how companies are able to access new financing, right now, the public markets are pretty still in the water. So you've seen kind of more opportunities for the institutional market as well. So the bank syndicated lending market has seen an uptick, which I think is likely to continue as we look out into the second half. So Don, maybe you want to give some color on that.

關於商業的一件事，也許我可以請唐對此發表評論，當你看看公司如何能夠獲得新的融資時，現在，公開市場仍然處於困境中。所以你也看到了機構市場的更多機會。因此，銀行銀團貸款市場出現了上漲，我認為隨著我們展望下半年，這種上漲可能會持續下去。所以唐，也許你想給它一些顏色。

Yes. I think that's right. And just to put a point on what John said, we've got utilization up by about another 200 basis points across the C&I books and the Global Markets books in the third quarter. So that gives us a couple of billion dollars in potential outstandings. To Bruce's point, we're really starting to see the acceleration of a trend of companies that might want to refinance in the bond market coming to the bank market instead because the access on bank balance sheets is so much more attractive.

是的。我認為這是對的。為了說明約翰所說的話，我們在第三季度的 C&I 賬簿和全球市場賬簿中的利用率又增加了大約 200 個基點。因此，這給了我們數十億美元的潛在未償債務。在布魯斯看來，我們真的開始看到一種趨勢加速，這些公司可能希望在債券市場進行再融資，而不是進入銀行市場，因為銀行資產負債表的訪問權更具吸引力。

And we're also seeing some transitory financing for M&A transactions and for maybe some buyouts coming more onto the bank balance sheets as opposed to some of the nonbank lenders. So I don't know what the exact mix will be, but there's a lot of things that are beginning to materialize. And it's not going to all go up because of that. We're going to take some other portfolios down and slow down some other things, similar to what Brendan said, what we've been doing for 2 or 3 years now just to change the mix of what's on the books.

而且我們還看到一些針對併購交易的臨時融資，也許一些收購更多地出現在銀行資產負債表上，而不是一些非銀行貸方。所以我不知道確切的組合會是什麼，但有很多事情正在開始實現。而且它不會因此而全部上漲。我們將減少其他一些投資組合併放慢其他一些事情，類似於布倫丹所說的，我們已經做了 2 或 3 年的事情，只是為了改變賬面上的內容。

So get a little more selective in terms of both returns of the capital we're deploying, but also being very careful of credit risk and the like, just in case we go into a little bit deeper slide. So we're just being protective of the risk front also.

因此，在我們部署的資本回報方面要更加謹慎，同時也要非常小心信用風險等，以防我們陷入更深的滑坡。所以我們也只是在保護風險前沿。

Yes. And one other thing, maybe just to close out there a little bit is to broaden it out to the second half. I think we mentioned -- in fact, there's a lot of moving parts here. And so we tried to really make it clear that our April guide had a 20% to 22% range of loan growth associated with it for the year and where basically -- all of these moving parts are going to fall into that range of the 20% to 22% loan growth increase in 2022. And hopefully, that's helpful. And how it shakes out between 3Q and 4Q, there's a lot going on there, but we're expecting to deliver as we indicated we would in our last guide.

是的。還有一件事，也許只是稍微收場，就是把它擴大到下半場。我想我們提到過——事實上，這裡有很多活動的部分。因此，我們試圖明確表明，我們 4 月份的指南在這一年有 20% 到 22% 的貸款增長范圍，而且基本上所有這些活動部分都將落入 20% 的範圍內2022 年貸款增長率將增長 % 至 22%。希望這會有所幫助。以及它如何在 3Q 和 4Q 之間搖擺不定，那裡發生了很多事情，但我們希望能夠像我們在上一份指南中所指出的那樣交付。

Your next question will be from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

您的下一個問題將來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Bruce, you guys have done a good job on credit, and you've identified the outlook as being healthy, strong possibly at the end of the year, but a little more cautious as we go into next year, which is completely understandable. Can you share with us what you guys are thinking about not so much the traditional credit areas like consumer lending, home equity or student loans, but more from an institutional market if the Fed pursues this quantitative tightening, which they claim they will [$95 billion] a month, what kind of disruption are you guys kind of looking at possibly that could happen separate from the traditional unemployment rates going up and all that stuff, I think most of us can understand that. But the new part is this quantitative tightening that we really [haven't] experience. How are you guys kind of thinking about that going forward?

布魯斯，你們在信貸方面做得很好，你們認為前景是健康的，可能在今年年底強勁，但在我們進入明年時會更加謹慎，這是完全可以理解的。您能否與我們分享一下你們的想法，與其說是消費貸款、房屋淨值或學生貸款等傳統信貸領域，不如說是如果美聯儲推行這種量化緊縮政策，他們將更多地從機構市場考慮，他們聲稱他們將 [950 億美元] 一個月，你們認為可能會發生什麼樣的破壞，而不是傳統的失業率上升和所有這些東西，我想我們大多數人都能理解這一點。但新的部分是我們真正[還沒有]經歷過的這種數量上的緊縮。你們如何看待未來的發展？

Well, we're a bit in uncharted waters because we haven't seen quantitative easing to the extent we have and now the amount of tightening that the planning is going to be interesting to watch. I mean if I step back and think about where did a lot of that additional liquidity end up, I think the biggest banks took on a lot of it, the custody banks took on a lot of it. And I think when we view our space, the super regional space, maybe we had some benefit from it, but a lot of it was just working on our playbook to deliver better for customers and establish whole relationships where we can capture the deposit opportunities that we were probably suboptimized on both on the consumer side and the commercial side.

好吧，我們有點處於未知領域，因為我們還沒有看到我們所擁有的量化寬鬆政策，而現在計劃中的緊縮程度將會很有趣。我的意思是，如果我退後一步想想這些額外的流動性最終流向了哪裡，我認為最大的銀行承擔了很多，託管銀行承擔了很多。而且我認為，當我們查看我們的空間，超級區域空間時，也許我們從中獲得了一些好處，但其中很多只是在製定我們的劇本，以便為客戶提供更好的服務並建立整體關係，我們可以在其中抓住存款機會我們可能在消費者方面和商業方面都沒有得到優化。

So I think the tightening process, you'd probably see it most impact the folks where the liquidity ended up, which could, in my view, be the bigger banks and the custody banks. In a bank like us, we still have a number of initiatives where I think we're not fully optimized in terms of the deposits per our relationship base, and we're going to continue to go try to gain market share and grab that.

所以我認為緊縮過程，你可能會看到它對流動性結束的人影響最大，在我看來，這可能是更大的銀行和託管銀行。在像我們這樣的銀行中，我們仍然有許多舉措，我認為我們在每個關係基礎的存款方面沒有完全優化，我們將繼續努力爭取市場份額並抓住它。

Very good. And can you think about it also from the loan side? Do you think that the QT could have some type of impact. Obviously, it's going to take liquidity out of the market, but I don't know how you guys think about it in terms of maybe some of the syndicated business that you've been doing quite successfully in the past.

很好。您是否也可以從貸款方面考慮一下？你認為 QT 會產生某種影響嗎？顯然，這將把流動性帶出市場，但我不知道你們是如何看待它的，也許是你們過去相當成功地開展的一些銀團業務。

Yes. I guess I'm not -- I don't necessarily think that will be a huge driver in the loan volumes. I think the level of GDP growth and that spurs activity in the animal spirits and people wanting to put money to work. I think that's a bigger driver. But maybe on that, I'll defer over to Don. If, Don, you have any thoughts?

是的。我想我不是——我不一定認為這會成為貸款量的巨大推動力。我認為國內生產總值的增長水平以及這刺激了動物精神的活動以及想要把錢投入工作的人們。我認為這是一個更大的驅動力。但也許在這一點上，我會聽從唐的意見。如果，唐，你有什麼想法嗎？

Yes, I'm not -- Gerard. I'm not too worried about the loan syndication piece. And again, volumes are much lower than they were, and I think they'll -- it will be where the action is. But the mega deals seem to be struggling a little bit. So if you think about the environment we're, the biggest challenge we have on transactional execution is larger transaction and then clearing through the marketplace. And so I think you'll see a little bit of a dearth there. That's not really the business we're in.

是的，我不是——杰拉德。我不太擔心銀團貸款。再一次，交易量比以前低得多，我認為他們會——這將是行動所在。但大型交易似乎有點掙扎。因此，如果您考慮我們所處的環境，我們在交易執行方面面臨的最大挑戰是更大的交易，然後通過市場進行清算。所以我想你會看到那裡有點缺乏。這不是我們真正從事的業務。

So I don't think it will affect our business. And then the other thing is you think about what's the price action that goes on in the securities market as the Fed is a seller versus a buyer. And I think one of the things that I'm looking at is the maturity ladder for corporate bonds and particularly high-yield bonds is relatively light for the next couple of years because everybody took advantage of the low interest rate environment of a couple -- over the last couple of years in refinance and push those maturities out. So I think we have some time for the market to adjust in particularly the public market to adjust to the QT trend that we're going to see.

所以我認為這不會影響我們的業務。然後另一件事是您考慮證券市場上發生的價格行為，因為美聯儲是賣方而不是買方。而且我認為我正在研究的一件事是公司債券的到期階梯，特別是高收益債券在接下來的幾年中相對較輕，因為每個人都利用了一對夫婦的低利率環境-在過去幾年的再融資和推出這些到期。所以我認為我們有一些時間讓市場進行調整，尤其是公開市場，以適應我們將要看到的 QT 趨勢。

Very good. And then as a follow-up question. You guys put aside $2.1 billion, I think, of loans from Investors holding it for sale. Can you kind of give us a description of what types of loans? And you also indicated that your criticized loans on a stand-alone basis went down, which is good, of course. But they were stable when you included the investors criticized loans. Are any of the criticized loans for investors in the $2.1 billion held for sale?

很好。然後作為後續問題。我認為，你們把持有它待售的投資者的貸款留了 21 億美元。您能給我們介紹一下哪些類型的貸款嗎？而且您還表示，您的批評貸款在獨立的基礎上下降了，這當然是好的。但是當你把投資者批評的貸款包括在內時，它們是穩定的。在持有待售的 21 億美元中，是否有任何針對投資者的受批評貸款？

Yes. The biggest driver of that book is an equipment finance book, which is about half of it. And there are some nonaccruals that -- and non-pass assets that did go into that portfolio. But more importantly, we think our underlying fundamentals with respect to the criticized being stable was a very good outcome. There are -- you've got some criticized coming out of ISBC with not a lot of loss content, and that's just a mechanism of migrating from the state chartered approach to how you manage that kind of stuff to an OCC-managed approach. So that was the impact there.

是的。那本書的最大推動力是一本設備金融書，大約佔了一半。並且有一些非應計資產 - 以及確實進入該投資組合的非通行資產。但更重要的是，我們認為我們關於被批評穩定的基本面是一個非常好的結果。有 - 你有一些批評來自 ISBC，沒有太多的損失內容，這只是從州特許方法遷移到如何管理這類東西到 OCC 管理方法的一種機制。這就是那裡的影響。

But lost content quite low. And on an ACL basis, pound per pound, the needs from an ACL perspective are actually lower in the ISBC side of things, given that profile that came over. So we're feeling pretty good about that.

但丟失的內容相當低。在 ACL 的基礎上，每磅，從 ACL 的角度來看，ISBC 方面的需求實際上較低，因為該配置文件出現了。所以我們對此感覺很好。

Your next question will come from Erika Najarian with UBS.

您的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

Just taking a step back, you guys have done a great job giving us exclusive detail in terms of what you're expecting underneath that NII outlook, I'm just wondering if we could talk about it more strategically, given how much the bank has changed since the last interest cycle.

退後一步，你們做得很好，就您在 NII 前景下的期望方面向我們提供了獨家細節，我只是想知道我們是否可以更具戰略性地談論它，因為銀行有多少自上一個利息週期以來發生了變化。

So Bruce, in the last interest rate cycle, you took advantage of putting forth great offers through Citizens Access. And I'm wondering, as you think about the composition of your balance sheet now, especially after investors, how should investors think about this go-forward Citizens deposit-gathering strategy? How aggressive are you going to be in terms of competing in rate? And is there room to lower some rates in the acquired portfolio from investors on the deposit side that would allow you to be maybe slightly more aggressive on the rate side on the Citizens Access front.

因此，布魯斯，在上一個利率週期中，您利用了通過 Citizens Access 提出的優惠。我想知道，當您現在考慮資產負債表的構成時，尤其是在投資者之後，投資者應該如何看待這種前進的公民存款收集策略？就速率競爭而言，您將有多大的進取心？是否有空間從存款方面的投資者那裡降低收購的投資組合中的某些利率，這將使您在公民訪問方面的利率方面可能稍微更具侵略性。

Yes. Let me start, and then I'll pass the [time] here to maybe Brendan and John. But I'd say we feel really good about the progress we've made in just reformulating the deposit base, both in consumer and in commercial. So in consumer taking a much more relationship orientation and not having that kind of thrift like lead with rate orientation that we kind of inherited when we got here. And so you can just see the results of that in terms of the noninterest-bearing growth, the affluent household growth, the stickiness of the deposits and the size per household going up.

是的。讓我開始吧，然後我會把這裡的 [時間] 轉給 Brendan 和 John。但我想說，我們對我們在重新制定存款基礎方面取得的進展感到非常滿意，無論是在消費者方面還是在商業方面。因此，消費者採取更多的關係導向，而不是像我們到達這裡時繼承的那種以利率導向為主的節儉。因此，您可以從無息增長、富裕家庭增長、存款粘性和每戶規模增加等方面看到結果。

So all those trends are terrific, and I think they continue. So that's a cornerstone of the deposit strategy going forward. I think we have been pretty astute in setting up Citizens Access and giving ourselves a kind of narrow swim lane to go after interest-sensitive deposits and compete for those. I don't think that, that's ever going to really become outsized relative to the overall mix. I think it's good to have and it's -- when we need incremental deposits, we can play with the rate, we can bring them in, but it serves its purpose.

所以所有這些趨勢都很棒，我認為它們會繼續下去。因此，這是未來存款策略的基石。我認為我們在設置 Citizens Access 並給自己一條狹窄的泳道來追逐對利息敏感的存款並競爭這些方面非常精明。我不認為，相對於整體組合，這真的會變得過大。我認為擁有它很好，而且它 - 當我們需要增加存款時，我們可以調整利率，我們可以將它們引入，但它達到了它的目的。

Ultimately, if we get the national bank to where we want to get it, maybe some of those deposits will be a little rate sensitive as we try to get a full wallet relationships with some of the national customer base. And then on commercial, again, I think we weren't as aggressive in seeking the operating accounts as we've been over the last few years and certainly seen a lot of growth there. And then we didn't have the full range of capabilities things like escrow services and other services that different segments of the customer base need, we weren't competitive. They weren't built out.

最終，如果我們將國家銀行帶到我們想要獲得的地方，那麼當我們試圖與一些國家客戶群建立完整的錢包關係時，也許其中一些存款會有點利率敏感。然後在商業方面，我認為我們在尋找運營賬戶方面並不像過去幾年那樣積極，而且肯定在那裡看到了很多增長。然後我們沒有全方位的能力，比如託管服務和不同客戶群需要的其他服務，我們沒有競爭力。它們不是建造出來的。

And so we've now built those out. And so I think our whole speed and deposit growth going forward can continue to be reasonably strong. And hopefully, we'd like to get it growing faster than kind of the, the peers, which would give us a lot of flexibility in terms of the amount of loan growth that we can find while maintaining an LDR in kind of the mid- to upper 80s. So that's a little bit top of the house thought process around that. But Brendan, maybe you could add something on the consumer side.

所以我們現在已經建立了這些。所以我認為我們未來的整體速度和存款增長可以繼續相當強勁。希望我們希望它的增長速度比同類同行更快，這將使我們在貸款增長量方面具有很大的靈活性，同時保持 LDR 處於中等水平到 80 多歲。所以這是圍繞它的房子思考過程的一點點。但是布倫丹，也許你可以在消費者方面添加一些東西。

Yes. I mean, on the consumer side, I'd say the last up cycle for rates was a bit of perfect storm for us for higher betas. We had a business model, as Bruce pointed out, it was more thrift-oriented, had higher promotional balances. We were growing loans materially faster than peers. So we had to fund up the loan growth with -- on a base that was a little bit less healthy than peers.

是的。我的意思是，在消費者方面，我會說利率的最後一個上升週期對我們來說是一個完美的風暴，因為我們需要更高的貝塔值。正如布魯斯指出的那樣，我們有一個商業模式，它更加節儉，具有更高的促銷餘額。我們的貸款增長速度明顯快於同行。因此，我們不得不在比同行略遜一籌的基礎上為貸款增長提供資金。

And then we did -- we hadn't fully built out all of our capabilities in the bank. So as I stare at consumer right now, I look at all of those dynamics, the underpinning health of the portfolio has remixed materially to low-cost deposits, and that's based on just increased primacy and engagement with customers. That's long-term value creation, and that continues to improve quarter-over-quarter, quarter-over-quarter. That's allowed us to bring our elastic deposits down. So last up cycle, we had something like $17 billion to $18 billion in promotionally priced elastic deposits.

然後我們做到了——我們還沒有完全發揮我們在銀行的所有能力。因此，當我現在凝視消費者時，我會查看所有這些動態，投資組合的基礎健康狀況已在實質上重新混合為低成本存款，而這只是基於增加的首要地位和與客戶的互動。這是長期的價值創造，並且環比、環比持續改善。這使我們能夠降低彈性存款。所以在上一個上升週期，我們有大約 170 億到 180 億美元的促銷價格彈性存款。

That's now in the mid-single digits in the core bank, putting aside Citizens Access. So the portfolio is mixed from the mid-40s percentages on low cost to -- into the 60s. That's a big buffer for better beta performance. We still believe the consumer segment will have a 25% to 30% net improvement rate cycle in betas. The other things we've done is we've built a lot of tools and capabilities. So Citizens Access is now something we're very good at. But that's not it. We've built a dramatically different product composition in the core bank.

現在，這在核心銀行中處於中個位數，撇開 Citizens Access 不談。因此，投資組合從低成本的 40 年代中期到 60 年代的百分比混合在一起。這是更好的測試性能的一個很大的緩衝。我們仍然認為，消費者細分市場將有 25% 至 30% 的 beta 淨改進率週期。我們所做的其他事情是我們構建了許多工具和功能。因此，Citizens Access 現在是我們非常擅長的事情。但事實並非如此。我們在核心銀行中構建了截然不同的產品組合。

We've built highly sophisticated analytic capabilities with better targeting. So we do think we can go and very targeted raise deposits in the core bank, but with a much more precision than we did in the past, which will really mute the beta impact in consumer and allow us where we need to get deposit growth. We can contain it in Citizens Access.

我們建立了高度複雜的分析能力，具有更好的針對性。因此，我們確實認為我們可以在核心銀行中非常有針對性地提高存款，但比過去更加精確，這將真正減輕消費者的貝塔影響，並使我們能夠獲得存款增長。我們可以將它包含在 Citizens Access 中。

Last point I would make is inside the Citizens Access, we are starting to see some green shoots of deeper relationships beginning to form. So it's not just this contained deposit raising mechanism on the side. And that's going to benefit both betas but also cost. And so we're doing some tests to drive Citizens Access deposit raising across our national mortgage customers and our national student loan customers. Early results have been quite positive as we started to raise rates, and that's going to make it much more affordable for us to drive those deposits on the expense side, not just the beta side. So a lot of improvements in the health of the franchise. I would suggest the consumer bank is in a dramatically different position right now than we were 5, 7 years ago.

我要說的最後一點是在 Citizens Access 內部，我們開始看到一些更深層次關係的萌芽開始形成。因此，這不僅僅是附帶的存款籌集機制。這將使測試版和成本都受益。因此，我們正在做一些測試，以推動 Citizens Access 在我們的國家抵押貸款客戶和我們的國家學生貸款客戶中提高存款。隨著我們開始提高利率，早期的結果非常積極，這將使我們能夠更負擔得起將這些存款用於支出方面，而不僅僅是測試方面。因此，特許經營的健康狀況得到了很多改善。我建議消費者銀行現在的處境與 5、7 年前截然不同。

Great answer, Brendan. Don, do you want to add anything?

很好的答案，布倫丹。唐，你要補充什麼嗎？

Yes, I'd say similar to Brendan, I mean we basically did not have a liquidity and deposit group 7 years ago when we started our journey here and our payments business was fundamentally subscale and subpar. So we're getting a good lift on the payment sales in the core operating business.

是的，我會說類似於 Brendan，我的意思是 7 年前，當我們在這裡開始我們的旅程時，我們基本上沒有流動性和存款組，我們的支付業務基本上是次規模和低於標準的。因此，我們在核心運營業務的支付銷售方面得到了很好的提升。

As previously said, Bruce, which is bringing some deposits with it. And our -- just our analytics and our capabilities, not to mention the product suite that we've begun to develop is just in a completely different place. So it's a much stronger relationship pull with the client base. As the client base grows, there's more opportunity to bring in deposits. So we feel very confident in terms of the deposit franchise at the moment.

如前所述，布魯斯帶來了一些存款。而我們的 - 只是我們的分析和我們的能力，更不用說我們已經開始開發的產品套件只是在一個完全不同的地方。因此，它與客戶群之間的關係要強大得多。隨著客戶群的增長，有更多的機會引入存款。因此，我們目前對存款專營權非常有信心。

Yes. You're getting the whole team here, Erika, but that's a good question, obviously. But just to your other point on investors, I'd say that given our history, I think we're particularly well placed to embark upon that migration of that deposit base as well. And we'll be getting that process. We closed this quarter, and we've already begun to run our playbook through this rising rate cycle where we're lagging rate on that platform, which otherwise might not have been lagged and et cetera, et cetera. And so we're making the investments necessary. So we're optimistic that we'll begin to see some benefits coming out of that, which was also part of your question.

是的。 Erika，你把整個團隊都召集到了這裡，但顯然這是個好問題。但就您關於投資者的另一點而言，我想說，鑑於我們的歷史，我認為我們也特別適合著手進行該存款基礎的遷移。我們將得到這個過程。我們本季度結束，我們已經開始在這個上升的利率週期中運行我們的劇本，在這個週期中，我們在該平台上的利率落後，否則可能不會落後等等。因此，我們正在進行必要的投資。所以我們很樂觀，我們將開始看到一些好處，這也是你問題的一部分。

We'll next go to Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

接下來我們將和 Jefferies 一起去 Ken Usdin。

Just if I can back check on a couple of things. When you refer to the April full year guidance, I think the output was plus or minus $3.4 billion-ish for the year. Is that still the zone that we're talking about as you reiterate it this quarter with a different mix?

只是如果我可以回來檢查幾件事。當您參考 4 月份的全年指導時，我認為該年度的產出是正負 34 億美元左右。當您在本季度以不同的組合重申它時，這仍然是我們正在談論的區域嗎？

Well, I mean, I think the -- what we're reiterating is that PPNR implied by that guide. And so yes, I mean, I think -- and you see -- and we talked about the puts and takes on that, doing -- seeing NII coming in a little better and with some offsets and fees and expenses well controlled and well disciplined on that and credit looking very positive and better than we expected as well.

好吧，我的意思是，我認為我們要重申的是該指南所暗示的 PPNR。所以是的，我的意思是，我認為 - 你看 - 我們談到了看跌期權和承擔，做 - 看到 NII 的情況有所好轉，並且有一些補償和費用和支出得到很好的控制和紀律在這一點上，信貸看起來非常積極，也比我們預期的要好。

Second question, can you give us, -- ISBC is in the full quarter? Any update on the magnitude and expected timing and run rating of the original $130 million of cost saves you expected?

第二個問題，你能告訴我們，--ISBC 在整個季度嗎？關於最初 1.3 億美元成本節省的規模和預期時間以及運行評級的任何更新是您預期的嗎？

Yes. I'd say the best way to think about that is by the end of the year, you'll see a run rate of about 70% of that $130 million and then the full amount of the $130 million coming in next year.

是的。我想說，考慮這一點的最佳方式是到今年年底，你會看到這 1.3 億美元的運行率約為 70%，然後明年 1.3 億美元的全部金額將出現。

Okay. So would you know what quarter do you expect that to be kind of fully captured?

好的。那麼你知道你希望哪個季度能被完全捕捉到嗎？

Well, next year. Yes, we haven't talked about it. I mean, the big driver of it is getting the closedown in the first quarter. So it will -- substantially all of that will be done by mid-year and there'll be some trickling in benefits in the second half, but most of that will be getting there by the middle part of '23.

嗯，明年。是的，我們還沒有談論它。我的意思是，它的主要驅動力是在第一季度關閉。所以它將 - 基本上所有這些都將在年中完成，下半年會有一些好處，但其中大部分將在 23 年中期實現。

Got it. And last quick one. There was an increase in short-term borrowed funds in FHLBs. And I'm just wondering you had the ones that were at ISBC and you had previously talked about getting rid of those through merger accounting. So I'm just wondering, did that chunk that came over from ISBC get taken out? Or is this -- are we now seeing the adds? And are there extra adds on top of it? Kind of if you could just talk through those 2 buckets, the short-term borrowed funds and the FHLBs relative to what might have come from ISBC or what's just new adds because of your funding mix?

知道了。最後一個快速。 FHLB的短期借款有所增加。我只是想知道你有那些在 ISBC 的那些，你之前曾談到通過合併會計擺脫這些。所以我只是想知道，從 ISBC 過來的那塊有沒有被取出來？或者這是 - 我們現在看到添加了嗎？並且在它之上是否有額外的添加？如果你能談談這兩個桶，短期借入資金和 FHLB 與可能來自 ISBC 的資金或由於你的資金組合而新增的資金？

Yes. We had a carryover of about $5 billion from ISBC. And then the rest of the balance sheet flows on our end in terms of loan growth and securities growth drove the rest of the changes in the quarter.

是的。我們從 ISBC 結轉了約 50 億美元。然後，就貸款增長和證券增長而言，資產負債表的其餘部分流動推動了本季度的其餘變化。

Yes. And I would say on that, that ultimately, some of that's timing, Ken, is that the FHLB borrowings from investors will roll off, and we have cash coming in from some of the portfolios that we placed for sale. So we would expect this is kind of a high watermark on the FHLB, all things equal and that we would bring that down by year-end.

是的。我要說的是，最終，Ken 的一些時機是 FHLB 從投資者那裡借來的借款將會減少，我們從我們出售的一些投資組合中獲得了現金。因此，我們預計這是 FHLB 的一個高水位線，在所有條件相同的情況下，我們將在年底前將其降低。

Your next question will come from Vivek Juneja from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

A couple of questions. You mentioned regarding the PPNR guide well-controlled expenses. Your expenses this quarter, I think, have come in at the high end of the range you gave for last quarter, including HSBC/ISBC. When you mentioned well controlled expenses for full year '22, can you give a little more color on what -- a little higher than where you were previously expecting? Lower? Unchanged? Any color on that?

幾個問題。您提到了關於 PPNR 指南控制良好的費用。我認為，您本季度的支出處於您上季度給出的範圍的高端，包括匯豐/ISBC。當您提到 22 年全年的控制良好的支出時，您能否提供更多的顏色 - 比您之前預期的要高一點？降低？不變？上面有什麼顏色嗎？

Yes. I think we're seeing some positive benefits coming out of expenses. And so when we say well controlled, I think we have some optimism that, that's going to be no greater than and possibly a little less than we expected.

是的。我認為我們從開支中看到了一些積極的好處。所以當我們說控制得很好時，我認為我們有一些樂觀，這不會比我們預期的要大，也可能比我們預期的要少一點。

Okay. Even though second quarter was at the high end, are you seeing some other additional costs?

好的。即使第二季度處於高端，您是否看到其他一些額外成本？

That's true. If we said up 1% to 2%, given higher revenue-based compensation expense was the guide and they came in up 1%. So I'm not sure where that's at the high end of the range.

確實如此。如果我們說上漲 1% 到 2%，考慮到更高的基於收入的薪酬費用是指導方針，他們上漲了 1%。因此，我不確定該範圍的高端在哪裡。

Okay. Because I'm just looking at report Bruce, and I see you were at 16 to 18, it came in at 18 on report...

好的。因為我只是在看報告布魯斯，我看到你是 16 到 18 歲，它在報告中是 18 歲...

I mean you have to look at underlying because that's really the integration costs that ticked that up. So -- if you look at our underlying, we actually thought we did a really good job to keep them virtually flat. And then we would expect that strong performance to continue into Q3. And we called out, I think, maybe 4% for the whole year. It's roughly where we are so.

我的意思是你必須看看底層，因為這確實是整合成本。所以——如果你看看我們的底層證券，我們實際上認為我們在保持它們幾乎持平方面做得非常好。然後我們預計這種強勁的表現將持續到第三季度。我們呼籲，我認為，全年可能是 4%。大致就是我們現在的情況。

And just on the integration cost, in fact, we did see more integration costs this quarter, but that's not signaling higher integration costs. It's just the opposite. We're pulling some into this quarter. We're expecting integration costs overall to be lower than we announced at...

事實上，就集成成本而言，我們確實在本季度看到了更多的集成成本，但這並不意味著更高的集成成本。恰恰相反。我們將在本季度引入一些。我們預計整體集成成本將低於我們在...

That was just a pull forward the back into Q2.

這只是將其拉回第二季度。

Okay. That's helpful. That's a completely different question. Early delinquencies, can you give us the numbers by loan category for second quarter '22, meaning 30- to 89-day delinquencies.

好的。這很有幫助。這是一個完全不同的問題。早期拖欠，您能否按貸款類別為我們提供 22 年第二季度的數字，即 30 至 89 天的拖欠。

Overall, in the consumer side, delinquencies have been flat to even some signals of being very modestly down. Actually, we're seeing in no portfolio that we're looking at, do we see any signs of reinflation both at the 30-day level all the way through 90 days. So with a 120-day cycle to get to a net charge-off, it would take a whole heck of a lot of what you would need to believe to see net charge-offs in the consumer segment go up materially between now and the end of the year.

總體而言，在消費者方面，拖欠率一直持平，甚至出現了一些非常溫和下降的信號。實際上，我們沒有看到我們正在查看的投資組合，我們是否在 30 天到 90 天的水平上看到任何再通脹的跡象。因此，在 120 天的周期內實現淨沖銷，你需要相信很多事情才能看到消費領域的淨沖銷從現在到年底大幅上升年。

Obviously, the place we're watching on the net charge-off line is things like used car values and recoveries on the resi portfolio, but those have been very stable and very high and very positive. We don't expect that to move very much either. So just the message overall in the consumer segment side is everything remains in great shape and without really any signs of a tick up.

顯然，我們在淨沖銷線上關注的地方是二手車價值和 resi 投資組合的回收率，但這些都非常穩定、非常高和非常積極。我們也不認為這會發生很大的變化。因此，消費者群體方面的整體信息是，一切都保持良好狀態，沒有任何上升的跡象。

And the fundamentals remain strong too. consumers still have 25%, 30% more in liquidity and deposits than pre-COVID and customer pay rates on credit cards pay in full, still are in the low 40 percentile. That was in the low 30s before COVID. So to believe that you'd start to see delinquency ticking up, you'd first probably see deposits start to burn down and you start to see customers relevering. We're not seeing that. Now we're a little bit unique from some peers in that our customer base skews much more mass affluent and affluent. But even when you say...

基本面也依然強勁。與 COVID 之前相比，消費者的流動性和存款仍然多 25%、30%，而信用卡上的客戶支付率全額支付，仍處於 40% 的低位。那是在 COVID 之前的 30 多歲。因此，要相信您會開始看到拖欠率上升，您首先可能會看到存款開始減少，然後您開始看到客戶重新開始。我們沒有看到這一點。現在我們與一些同行相比有點獨特，因為我們的客戶群更加富裕和富裕。但即使你說...

Credit score was super prime and high prime.

信用評分是超優和高優。

We're super prime lender, where you see some market commentary on early signs of credit. It tends to be in the subprime space, and we don't have any of those businesses -- but we don't see any signs of credit stress in any portfolio really across any of the segments that we're in.

我們是超級優質貸方，您可以在其中看到一些關於早期信貸跡象的市場評論。它往往在次貸領域，我們沒有任何這些業務——但我們在我們所處的任何細分市場中都沒有看到任何投資組合中有任何信貸壓力的跡象。

Okay. And not even in the other retail partnerships you've put on the point of sale, are you seeing any stretching by consumers there in terms of levering up more?

好的。甚至在您在銷售點建立的其他零售合作夥伴關係中，您是否看到那裡的消費者在提高槓桿率方面有任何伸展？

No, I would direct you to a month or 2 ago, John and I went to the Morgan Stanley conference, and we shared some credit stress portfolio by portfolio. The Citizens Pay portfolio is performing exceptionally well and is, in fact, multiples below our prime credit card portfolio. And so not only is it super prime, but it's performing 4, 5, 6x better than even a credit card portfolio. So we feel very good about that quality.

不，我會告訴你一兩個月前，約翰和我參加了摩根士丹利會議，我們按投資組合分享了一些信用壓力投資組合。 Citizens Pay 投資組合表現異常出色，實際上是我們主要信用卡投資組合的倍數。因此，它不僅是超級優質產品，而且其表現甚至比信用卡組合還要好 4、5、6 倍。所以我們對這種質量感覺很好。

And that's because we draw a tight credit box in terms of what we are willing to take on the...

那是因為我們根據我們願意承擔的...

Exactly. And where you start to -- we've been very ambitious on our desire to grow that business. But we've been disciplined on credit, and we're not going to -- we're not going to be undisciplined on credit in that business to drive growth. And so where we've been slower to see growth manifest in Citizens Pay, it's because we're not willing to jeopardize our credit discipline, and I don't see equally any signs of stress whatsoever on the Citizens Pay portfolio remains in great shape.

確切地。你從哪裡開始——我們對發展這項業務的願望非常雄心勃勃。但是我們在信貸方面一直受到紀律處分，而且我們不會 - 我們不會在該業務的信貸方面不遵守紀律以推動增長。因此，在我們看到公民薪酬增長放緩的地方，這是因為我們不願意危害我們的信用紀律，而且我同樣沒有看到公民薪酬投資組合有任何壓力跡象.

There are no further questions in queue. And with that, I'll turn it back over to Mr. Van Saun for closing remarks.

隊列中沒有其他問題。有了這個，我將把它交還給 Van Saun 先生做閉幕詞。

All right. Well, thanks again for dialing in today. We appreciate everyone's interest and support. Have a great day. Thank you.

好的。好吧，再次感謝您今天撥入。我們感謝大家的關注和支持。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude your conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。