Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Citizens Financial Group Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Alan, and I'll be your operator today.

大家早上好，歡迎參加 Citizens Financial Group 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。我的名字是艾倫，今天我將成為你的接線員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this event is being recorded. Now I'll turn the call over to Kristin Silberberg, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations. Kristin, you may begin.

提醒一下，正在記錄此事件。現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係執行副總裁 Kristin Silberberg。克里斯汀，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Alan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, this morning, our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and CFO, John Woods, will provide an overview of our third quarter results. Brendan Coughlin, Head of Consumer Banking; and Don McCree, Head of Commercial Banking, are also here to provide additional color. We will be referencing our third quarter earnings presentation located on our Investor Relations website.

謝謝你，艾倫。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。首先，今天上午，我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Bruce Van Saun；首席財務官 John Woods 將概述我們的第三季度業績。 Brendan Coughlin，個人銀行業務主管；商業銀行業務負責人 Don McCree 也在這裡提供額外的色彩。我們將參考我們的投資者關係網站上的第三季度收益報告。

After the presentation, we will be happy to take questions. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. These are outlined for your review on Page 2 of the presentation. We also reference non-GAAP financial measures, so it's important to review our GAAP results on Page 3 of the presentation and the reconciliations in the appendix.

演講結束後，我們很樂意回答問題。我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期存在重大差異。這些概述在演示文稿的第 2 頁上供您查看。我們還參考了非 GAAP 財務指標，因此請務必查看演示文稿第 3 頁上的 GAAP 結果和附錄中的對賬。

With that, I will hand over to Bruce.

有了這個，我將交給布魯斯。

Thanks, Kristin. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call today.

謝謝，克里斯汀。大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

We delivered another very strong quarterly result in Q3. Rising rates positively impacted our net interest income and net interest margin. Fees and expenses were broadly stable and credit performance remains excellent. We grew average loans 2% and deposits 1% as our liquidity and funding position remains strong and our CET1 ratio of 9.8% is above the midpoint of our 9.5% to 10% target range.

我們在第三季度發布了另一個非常強勁的季度業績。利率上升對我們的淨利息收入和淨息差產生了積極影響。費用和開支大體穩定，信貸表現依然出色。我們的平均貸款增長 2%，存款增長 1%，因為我們的流動性和資金狀況依然強勁，而且我們 9.8% 的 CET1 比率高於我們 9.5% 至 10% 目標範圍的中點。

Our TCE to total asset ratio sits at 6.1%. Performance metrics include a net interest margin of 3.25% and that's up 21 basis points. We had positive sequential operating leverage of 6%. We had hit an efficiency ratio below 55% and our return on tangible common equity was around 18%. We built our credit reserves by $49 million with our ACL at 1.41%, and that's above the 1.3% day 1 CECL reserve adjusted for the investors acquisition. Beyond these impressive financial results, we've continued to make good progress in executing our strategic initiatives.

我們的 TCE 與總資產的比率為 6.1%。績效指標包括 3.25% 的淨息差，上升了 21 個基點。我們的連續經營槓桿率為 6%。我們的效率比率低於 55%，有形普通股的回報率約為 18%。我們的信用儲備增加了 4900 萬美元，ACL 為 1.41%，高於為投資者收購調整的第一天 CECL 儲備的 1.3%。除了這些令人印象深刻的財務業績外，我們在執行我們的戰略計劃方面繼續取得良好進展。

In Consumer, we launched Citizens Private Client, which will help drive wealth opportunities. We migrated our national digital bank to a modern cloud-based platform. We continue to grow share with Citizens Pay, and we're executing well on our expansion into New York City Metro region.

在消費者方面，我們推出了公民私人客戶，這將有助於推動財富機會。我們將國家數字銀行遷移到基於雲的現代平台。我們繼續擴大與 Citizens Pay 的份額，並且我們在向紐約市都會區的擴張方面表現良好。

In commercial, we've successfully integrated recent acquisitions like JMP and DH Capital into our coverage and product model. Our M&A pipelines are at record levels and our geographic and industry vertical build-out is delivering strong results in terms of market share gains. Enterprise wide, we're successfully ramping up our TOP 7 program, while building out TOP 8, Stay tuned on that. Our next-gen tech program has really been the standout initiative that has been a game changer for us.

在商業方面，我們已成功地將近期收購的 JMP 和 DH Capital 等整合到我們的覆蓋範圍和產品模型中。我們的併購渠道處於創紀錄水平，我們的地理和行業垂直建設在市場份額增長方面取得了強勁的成果。在企業範圍內，我們成功地提升了我們的 TOP 7 計劃，同時建立了 TOP 8，敬請期待。我們的下一代技術計劃確實是一項傑出的舉措，它改變了我們的遊戲規則。

These programs demonstrate our mindset of continuous improvement finding ways to run the bank more efficiently so we can deliver positive operating leverage and self-fund investments for our future. We're also doing some interesting things in ESG such as developing a carbon offset program for clients as well as investing in a virtual power agreement that delivers clean energy, and we have more interesting innovation in the pipeline.

這些計劃展示了我們不斷改進的心態，尋找更有效地運營銀行的方法，以便我們能夠為我們的未來提供積極的經營槓桿和自籌資金投資。我們還在 ESG 方面做一些有趣的事情，例如為客戶開發碳抵消計劃以及投資提供清潔能源的虛擬電力協議，我們還有更多有趣的創新正在籌備中。

As we look forward to Q4 in 2023, we feel that we are well positioned to deliver strong results and to keep growing and enhancing our franchise value. We are well prepared for challenges that may materialize in the macro environment with a really strong balance sheet position and highly prudent credit risk appetite. But we also plan to keep playing disciplined offense with continuing investments in our growth initiatives.

在我們期待 2023 年第四季度的同時，我們認為我們已做好準備，能夠提供強勁的業績並繼續增長和提升我們的特許經營價值。我們為宏觀環境中可能出現的挑戰做好了充分的準備，資產負債表狀況非常強勁，信用風險偏好非常審慎。但我們也計劃通過繼續投資於我們的增長計劃來繼續進行紀律嚴明的進攻。

The current environment gives us a great opportunity to prove our metal and deliver responsible, sustainable growth. One aspect that we emphasize in today's presentation is our confidence in the quality of our deposit base, but we've been able to transform over time. We've had good deposit stability over the past couple of quarters, as some peers are seeing outflows, and our deposit betas are back in line with the pack.

當前的環境為我們提供了一個很好的機會來證明我們的金屬並實現負責任的可持續增長。我們在今天的演講中強調的一個方面是我們對存款基礎質量的信心，但隨著時間的推移，我們已經能夠轉變。在過去的幾個季度中，我們的存款穩定性很好，因為一些同行看到資金外流，我們的存款貝塔值又回到了原來的水平。

We're seeing very strong loan betas and expect these to remain above deposit betas through 2024, assuming the current forward curve. As a result, our NIM will continue to rise more gradually as time goes on. We've also layered in sizable net interest rate hedges to protect NIM and ROTCE through 2024 if the Fed reverses and brings down short-term rates. Moving off of the 0 bound for short rates has unlocked the value of our deposit franchise and significantly benefited our ROTCE.

假設當前的遠期曲線，我們看到非常強勁的貸款貝塔值，並預計到 2024 年這些貝塔值將保持在存款貝塔之上。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們的 NIM 將繼續逐漸上升。如果美聯儲逆轉並降低短期利率，我們還進行了大規模的淨利率對沖，以保護 NIM 和 ROTCE 到 2024 年。擺脫短期利率的 0 限制釋放了我們的存款特許經營權的價值，並使我們的 ROTCE 受益匪淺。

With a clearer macro outlook and less market volatility and we feel the value of our commercial bank build-out will also manifest benefiting further our ROTCE. So very exciting time for Citizens. And with that, I'll stop and turn it over to John to cover the financials in more detail. John?

隨著宏觀前景更加清晰和市場波動性降低，我們認為我們的商業銀行擴建的價值也將進一步使我們的 ROTCE 受益。對於公民來說，這是非常激動人心的時刻。有了這個，我會停下來把它交給約翰來更詳細地介紹財務狀況。約翰？

Thanks, Bruce, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，布魯斯，大家早上好。

First, I'll start with our headlines for the quarter, referencing Slide 5. We reported underlying net income of $669 million and EPS of $1.30. Our underlying ROTCE for the quarter was 17.9%. Net interest income was up 11% linked quarter, driven by a 21 basis point improvement in margin to 3.25% and 2% growth in average interest-earning assets. Average loans are up 2% linked quarter, with 3% growth in commercial. Fees were fairly stable, down 2% linked quarter as our client hedging business returned to more historical levels following an exceptional first half of the year and mortgage results softened a bit.

首先，我將從本季度的頭條新聞開始，參考幻燈片 5。我們報告的基本淨收入為 6.69 億美元，每股收益為 1.30 美元。我們本季度的基本 ROTCE 為 17.9%。由於利潤率提高 21 個基點至 3.25% 和平均生息資產增長 2%，淨利息收入增長 11%。相關季度平均貸款增長 2%，商業貸款增長 3%。費用相當穩定，掛鉤季度下降 2%，因為我們的客戶對沖業務在今年上半年表現出色後恢復到更高的歷史水平，並且抵押貸款業績略有下降。

Capital markets fees and service charges were stable. We remain highly disciplined on expenses, which are up 1% linked quarter. Overall, we delivered underlying positive operating leverage of 6% linked quarter, and our underlying efficiency ratio improved to 54.9%. We recorded a provision for credit losses of $123 million and a reserve build of $49 million this quarter, which reflects an increased risk of recession, partly offset by improvement in portfolio mix.

資本市場收費和服務收費穩定。我們對費用保持高度自律，相關季度增長 1%。總體而言，我們實現了 6% 的關聯季度基本正運營槓桿，我們的基本效率比率提高到 54.9%。本季度我們記錄了 1.23 億美元的信貸損失準備金和 4900 萬美元的儲備金，這反映了經濟衰退風險的增加，部分被投資組合的改善所抵消。

Our ACL ratio stands at 1.41%, up from 1.37% at the end of the second quarter and compares with a pro forma day 1 CECL reserve of approximately 1.3%. Our tangible book value per share is down 8.6% linked quarter, driven by the impact of higher long-term rates on AOCI. We continue to have a very strong capital position with our CET1 ratio at 9.8%, just above the midpoint of our target range.

我們的 ACL 比率為 1.41%，高於第二季度末的 1.37%，而備考第 1 天 CECL 準備金約為 1.3%。由於長期利率上升對 AOCI 的影響，我們的每股有形賬面價值在相關季度下降了 8.6%。我們繼續擁有非常強勁的資本狀況，我們的 CET1 比率為 9.8%，略高於我們目標範圍的中點。

Next, I'll provide further details related to third quarter results. On Slide 6, net interest income was up 11%, given higher net interest margin and 2% growth in interest-earning assets. The net interest margin was 3.25%, up 21 basis points. As you can see on the NIM block in the bottom left-hand side of the slide, the healthy increase in asset yields outpaced funding costs, reflecting the asset sensitivity of our balance sheet.

接下來，我將提供與第三季度業績相關的更多細節。在幻燈片 6 中，由於淨息差增加和生息資產增長 2%，淨利息收入增長了 11%。淨息差為3.25%，上升21個基點。正如您在幻燈片左下角的 NIM 塊中所見，資產收益率的健康增長超過了融資成本，反映了我們資產負債表的資產敏感性。

Moving to Slide 7. With the current expectation for the Fed to raise rates further, we are confident that we will continue to realize meaningful benefits from rising rates as the forward curve plays out. Our asset sensitivity has driven a significant improvement in NII year-to-date and those benefits will continue to accumulate into the fourth quarter and compound into 2023. Our overall asset sensitivity increased to approximately 3.3% at the end of the third quarter, up from 2.6% for the second quarter, primarily driven by the impact of variable rate loan originations.

轉到幻燈片 7。鑑於目前對美聯儲進一步加息的預期，我們有信心隨著遠期曲線的展開，我們將繼續從加息中獲得有意義的好處。年初至今，我們的資產敏感性推動了 NII 的顯著改善，這些收益將繼續累積到第四季度，並在 2023 年復合。我們的整體資產敏感性在第三季度末增加到約 3.3%，高於第二季度為 2.6%，主要受浮動利率貸款發放的影響。

Our asset sensitivity will allow us to have further upside as the forward curve continues to move up. We expect cumulative loan betas to exceed the positive betas through the rate cycle. Our interest-bearing deposit beta is tracking well within our expectations, and the ultimate outcome will depend upon the pace and level of Fed rate hikes from here.

隨著遠期曲線繼續向上移動，我們的資產敏感性將使我們有進一步的上行空間。我們預計累積貸款貝塔值將在整個利率週期中超過正貝塔值。我們的有息存款貝塔值在我們的預期之內，最終結果將取決於美聯儲從這裡開始加息的速度和水平。

So far in this cycle, with fed funds increasing 225 basis points since 4Q '21, our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta is well controlled at 18% through the end of the third quarter. On a sequential basis, our deposit beta was 26%. We began the rate cycle with a strong liquidity and funding profile, including significant improvements through our deposit mix and capabilities. We will continue to optimize our deposit base and to invest in our capabilities to attract durable customer deposits.

到目前為止，在這個週期中，聯邦基金自 21 年第四季度以來增加了 225 個基點，到第三季度末，我們的累計有息存款貝塔值很好地控制在 18%。在連續的基礎上，我們的存款貝塔為 26%。我們以強大的流動性和資金狀況開始了利率週期，包括通過我們的存款組合和能力顯著改善。我們將繼續優化我們的存款基礎，並投資於我們吸引持久客戶存款的能力。

We continue to execute our hedging strategy to managing a more predictable and stable outlook for NII as we benefit from the higher rate environment. You'll find a summary of our hedge position in the appendix on Slide 23. In the third quarter, we did an additional $10 billion of hedges with a focus on extending our protection out through 2024 and beyond, primarily through forward starting swaps.

隨著我們受益於更高的利率環境，我們將繼續執行我們的對沖策略，以管理 NII 的更可預測和更穩定的前景。您可以在幻燈片 23 的附錄中找到我們對沖頭寸的摘要。在第三季度，我們額外進行了 100 億美元的對沖，重點是將我們的保護延長到 2024 年及以後，主要是通過遠期開始掉期。

We expect our NIM to rise to 3.5% or better by the end of 2023 and for our overall hedge position to provide a NIM floor of about 3.25% through the fourth quarter of 2024. If we see rates come down by 200 basis points across the forward curve, before it could move higher with further hedge actions.

我們預計到 2023 年底，我們的 NIM 將升至 3.5% 或更高，並且我們的整體對沖頭寸將在 2024 年第四季度提供約 3.25% 的 NIM 下限。如果我們看到整個利率下降 200 個基點遠期曲線，然後才能通過進一步的對沖操作走高。

Moving on to Slide 8. We posted good fee results despite headwinds from continued market volatility and higher rates. These were fairly stable, down 2% linked quarter as our client hedging business returned to more historical levels following an exceptional first half of the year. Car fees were strong again this quarter, while capital markets and service charges were stable. Focusing on capital markets, market volatility continued to impact the bond and equity markets. M&A advisory fees picked up nicely, but this was offset by lower loan syndication revenue amid increased economic uncertainty and market volatility.

繼續幻燈片 8。儘管市場持續波動和利率上升帶來不利因素，我們仍公佈了良好的收費結果。由於我們的客戶對沖業務在今年上半年表現出色後恢復到更高的歷史水平，因此這些都相當穩定，相關季度下降了 2%。本季度車費再次走強，而資本市場和服務費保持穩定。以資本市場為重點，市場波動繼續影響債券和股票市場。併購諮詢費用回升良好，但這被經濟不確定性增加和市場波動導致銀團貸款收入減少所抵消。

We continue to see good strength in our M&A pipeline to continue to build with strong pinch activity and a growing backlog. While current market volatility may constrain the ability for deals to close, capital markets fees should see some seasonal improvement in the fourth quarter, particularly in M&A advisory and even more broadly if markets settle down. Mortgage fees were softer as the higher rate environment weighed on production volumes, which more than offset the fact that production margins improved modestly this quarter, but still remain below historical levels.

我們繼續看到我們的併購渠道具有良好的實力，以繼續建立強大的緊縮活動和不斷增長的積壓。儘管當前的市場波動可能會限制交易完成的能力，但資本市場費用應該會在第四季度出現一些季節性改善，特別是在併購諮詢方面，如果市場穩定下來，範圍更廣。由於較高的利率環境對產量造成壓力，抵押貸款費用較為疲軟，這足以抵消本季度生產利潤率略有改善但仍低於歷史水平的事實。

We are seeing signs of the industry reducing capacity, which should benefit margins over time and servicing operating fees were stable. Wealth fees are $5 million lower linked quarter given the impact of lower market levels on AUM. And in other income, we saw a seasonal benefit from our tax advantaged investments and an increase in leasing revenue.

我們看到了行業產能下降的跡象，隨著時間的推移，這將使利潤率受益，並且服務運營費用保持穩定。鑑於較低的市場水平對 AUM 的影響，財富費用減少了 500 萬美元。在其他收入方面，我們看到稅收優惠投資帶來的季節性收益和租賃收入的增加。

On Slide 9, expenses were well controlled, up 1% linked quarter. Our TOP 7 efficiency program is continuing to make good progress and is on track to deliver over $115 million of pretax run rate benefits by the end of the year. Average loans on Slide 10 were up 2% linked quarter driven by 3% growth in commercial with growth in C&I and CRE, given modestly higher loan utilization and slower paydowns.

在幻燈片 9 上，開支得到了很好的控制，上一季度增長了 1%。我們的 TOP 7 效率計劃繼續取得良好進展，並有望在年底前提供超過 1.15 億美元的稅前運行率收益。幻燈片 10 上的平均貸款增長 2%，這主要得益於商業增長 3% 以及 C&I 和 CRE 的增長，原因是貸款利用率略有提高且還款速度較慢。

Retail loans increased 1% with growth in mortgage and home equity, offsetting planned runoff in auto. Period-end loans were broadly stable linked quarter given higher-than-usual end-of-quarter C&I line paydown, which were generally redrawn after quarter end.

隨著抵押貸款和房屋淨值的增長，零售貸款增長了 1%，抵消了汽車的計劃徑流。由於季度末 C&I 線還款額高於往常，期末貸款基本穩定。

On Slide 11, average deposits were up $1.3 billion or 1% linked quarter, with growth coming from retail term deposits and Citizens Access savings and commercial banking deposits were broadly stable.

在幻燈片 11 上，平均存款增長 13 億美元或 1% 的關聯季度，增長來自零售定期存款和 Citizens Access 儲蓄和商業銀行存款大致穩定。

Deposit costs remain well controlled. Our interest-bearing deposit costs were up 38 basis points, which translates to an 18% cumulative beta. We feel good about how we are optimizing deposit costs in this rate environment, and our performance to date is reflective of the investments need to strengthen our deposit franchise since the IPO. Overall, liquidity improved as we reduced our flood advances by $2.3 billion and increased our cash position at quarter end.

存款成本控制良好。我們的有息存款成本上升了 38 個基點，這相當於 18% 的累積貝塔值。我們對在這種利率環境下如何優化存款成本感到滿意，我們迄今為止的表現反映了自 IPO 以來加強存款特許經營權所需的投資。總體而言，流動性有所改善，因為我們將洪水預付款減少了 23 億美元，並在季度末增加了我們的現金頭寸。

Moving on to Slide 12. We saw good credit results again this quarter across the retail and commercial portfolios. Net charge-offs were 19 basis points, up 6 basis points linked quarter, but still very low relative to historical levels. Nonperforming loans were broadly stable at 55 basis points of total loans. Given the higher risk of recession, we are watching our loan portfolio very carefully for early signs of stress, in particular, CRE office, leveraged loans and selected nonprofit sectors.

繼續幻燈片 12。本季度，我們在零售和商業投資組合中再次看到了良好的信貸業績。淨沖銷為 19 個基點，環比上升 6 個基點，但相對於歷史水平仍然非常低。不良貸款大致穩定在貸款總額的 55 個基點。鑑於經濟衰退的風險較高，我們正在非常仔細地觀察我們的貸款組合，尋找壓力的早期跡象，特別是 CRE 辦公室、槓桿貸款和選定的非營利部門。

At this point, we aren't seeing significant issues emerge. Also, the leading indicators for consumer continue to be stable and favorable to pre-pandemic levels. Personal disposable income has declined from stimulus-driven highs but remains above the pre-pandemic 2019 average.

在這一點上，我們沒有看到出現重大問題。此外，消費者的領先指標繼續保持穩定，並有利於大流行前的水平。個人可支配收入已從刺激驅動的高位下降，但仍高於 2019 年大流行前的平均水平。

Spending for travel and restaurants remain steady and above pre-pandemic levels. while credit card and home equity line utilization are still well below pre-pandemic levels and retail delinquencies continue to remain favorable to historical levels.

旅行和餐廳的支出保持穩定，高於大流行前的水平。而信用卡和房屋淨值線的利用率仍遠低於大流行前的水平，零售拖欠率繼續保持在歷史水平。

Turning to Slide 13. I'll walk through the drivers of the allowance this quarter. We continue to see very good credit performance across the retail and commercial portfolios. While we aren't seeing stress in the portfolio at this point, we increased our allowance by $49 million to take into account an increased risk of recession, partly offset by improvement in portfolio mix. Our overall coverage ratio stands at 1.41% which is a modest increase from the second quarter.

轉到幻燈片 13。我將在本季度介紹津貼的驅動因素。我們繼續看到零售和商業投資組合的信貸表現非常好。雖然此時我們沒有看到投資組合的壓力，但我們將準備金增加了 4900 萬美元，以考慮到經濟衰退風險增加，部分被投資組合的改善所抵消。我們的整體覆蓋率為 1.41%，較第二季度略有上升。

If you recall, when we adopted CECL at the beginning of 2020, our coverage ratio was 1.47%. However, given the investors acquisition and some shifts in the portfolio mix, we estimate our pro forma day 1 CECL allowance to be approximately 1.3%. The current reserve level contemplates a shallow recession and incorporates the risk of added stress on certain portfolios including those subject to higher risk term inflation, supply chain issues and return to office trends.

如果您還記得，當我們在 2020 年初採用 CECL 時，我們的覆蓋率是 1.47%。然而，考慮到投資者的收購和投資組合的一些變化，我們估計我們的備考第 1 天 CECL 津貼約為 1.3%。當前的儲備水平考慮到了輕微的衰退，並考慮了某些投資組合面臨的額外壓力的風險，包括那些受到較高風險期限通脹、供應鏈問題和重返辦公室趨勢的投資組合。

Moving to Slide 14. We maintained excellent balance sheet strength. Our CET1 ratio increased to 9.8%, which is slightly above the midpoint of our target range. This, combined with our strong earnings outlook puts us in a position to resume share repurchases in the fourth quarter. Tangible book value per share and the tangible common equity ratios were both reduced by the impact of higher long-term rates on AOCI. We have increased our held to maturity portfolio for about 30% of total loans at quarter end, which has helped to mitigate the impact of rising rates.

轉到幻燈片 14。我們保持了出色的資產負債表實力。我們的 CET1 比率增加到 9.8%，略高於我們目標範圍的中點。再加上我們強勁的盈利前景，我們能夠在第四季度恢復股票回購。每股有形賬面價值和有形普通股比率均因長期利率上升對 AOCI 的影響而降低。在季度末，我們將持有至到期的投資組合增加了約 30% 的總貸款，這有助於減輕利率上升的影響。

Our fundamental priorities for deploying capital have not changed, and you can expect us to remain extremely disciplined in how we manage capital allocation. Shifting gears a bit. On Slides 15 and 16, you'll see some examples of the progress we made against the key strategic initiatives and what's on tap for our businesses in the near term.

我們部署資本的基本優先事項沒有改變，您可以期望我們在管理資本分配方面保持極其自律。稍微換個檔次。在幻燈片 15 和 16 上，您將看到一些關於我們在關鍵戰略計劃方面取得的進展的示例，以及近期內我們業務的發展前景。

Since we closed the investors acquisition in April, we've been executing against a phased approach to the integration. In the second quarter, we began originating mortgages on our systems. And since then, we have completed the conversion of mortgage servicing. We also successfully completed the conversion of more than 10,000 investors' wealth clients, representing about $1.6 billion in assets to our platform. We have a lot more to do, but I'm pleased to say that we are on track to complete the deposit and branch conversions in mid-first quarter 2023. We have included a high-level integration timeline in the appendix on Slide 22.

自從我們在 4 月完成對投資者的收購以來，我們一直在執行分階段的整合方法。在第二季度，我們開始在我們的系統上發起抵押貸款。此後，我們完成了抵押貸款服務的轉換。我們還成功完成了超過 10,000 名投資者財富客戶的轉換，代表了約 16 億美元的資產到我們的平台。我們還有很多工作要做，但我很高興地說，我們有望在 2023 年第一季度中期完成存款和分行轉換。我們在幻燈片 22 的附錄中包含了一個高級集成時間表。

Importantly, we remain on target to achieve our planned $130 million of run rate net expense synergies by the end of 2023 of which approximately 70% will be achieved by the end of 2022. We also continue to expect that the integration costs will come in below our initial estimates. In the last 3 years, we have launched a collection of new banking products and features that make it easier to bank with us. Last week, we announced the next step in that evolution with CitizensPlus, which provides financial rewards, banking features and tailored advice that grows with customers from everyday banking to personalized wealth management.

重要的是，我們仍有望在 2023 年底之前實現我們計劃的 1.3 億美元的運行率淨費用協同效應，其中約 70% 將在 2022 年底之前實現。我們還繼續預計整合成本將低於我們的初步估計。在過去的 3 年中，我們推出了一系列新的銀行產品和功能，讓我們的銀行業務變得更加容易。上週，我們宣布了與 CitizensPlus 合作的下一步，它提供財務獎勵、銀行業務功能和量身定制的建議，從日常銀行業務到個性化財富管理，與客戶一起成長。

This includes Citizens Private Client our new expanded wealth management offering, which will launch by the end of the year. We are fully committed to driving momentum in our wealth business. And as part of the launch, we are hiring more than 200 new financial advisors and relationship managers. We continue to make meaningful strides forward with our national digital strategy and tech modernization. Earlier this year, we migrated Citizens Access to a fully cloud native platform, and we launched a national storefront adding mortgage and education refis to the portal. Over the next year or so, we plan to expand our national storefront, adding card and checking first and then Wealth and Citizens Day. As we add products to the platform, we have an exciting opportunity to build relationships across a growing national customer base.

這包括 Citizens Private Client 我們新的擴展財富管理產品，該產品將於今年年底推出。我們全力推動財富業務的發展勢頭。作為啟動的一部分，我們正在招聘 200 多名新的財務顧問和客戶關係經理。我們繼續在國家數字戰略和技術現代化方面取得有意義的進展。今年早些時候，我們將 Citizens Access 遷移到了一個完全雲原生的平台，並且我們推出了一個全國性的店面，將抵押和教育資源添加到門戶中。在接下來的一年左右，我們計劃擴大我們的全國店面，首先添加卡片和支票，然後是財富和公民日。隨著我們向平台添加產品，我們有一個激動人心的機會，可以在不斷增長的全國客戶群中建立關係。

Our vision is to migrate our core branch deposits to this modern platform over time, which will be a key change in efficiency and flexibility in terms of implementing upgrades and enhancements. We are also growing our innovative citizen pay offering, which is currently at about 160 merchant partners and expanding across targeted verticals.

我們的願景是隨著時間的推移將我們的核心分行存款遷移到這個現代平台，這將是在實施升級和增強方面效率和靈活性的關鍵變化。我們還在發展我們的創新公民支付服務，目前約有 160 個商家合作夥伴，並在目標垂直領域進行擴展。

Over the next year, we are working to launch a new mobile app and a unique customer direct experience.

在接下來的一年裡，我們將努力推出一款新的移動應用程序和獨特的客戶直接體驗。

Moving to the commercial business on Slide 16. Over the past 8 years, we've invested heavily in talent and product capabilities in M&A, corporate finance, bond and equity underwriting, FX and commodities and so on.

在幻燈片 16 上轉到商業業務。在過去的 8 年中，我們在併購、企業融資、債券和股票承銷、外彙和大宗商品等領域的人才和產品能力上進行了大量投資。

Despite the challenging environment, we remain near the top of the league tables, consistently ranking in the top 10 as a middle market and sponsor book runner and helping corporates and private equity sponsors access capital through the public markets. We have also integrated our cash management and global market solutions as well with our coverage. We are excited about the potential synergies from our recent acquisitions as we target growth in key verticals the JMP acquisition gets us much deeper into the growing healthcare, technology and financial services sectors, expands our equity underwriting and adds research capabilities and DH Capital expands our capabilities in the Internet infrastructure, communication sectors, software and next-generation IT services. These businesses are exceptionally well positioned for when markets reopen.

儘管環境充滿挑戰，我們仍保持在排行榜的前列，作為中間市場和讚助商賬簿管理人持續排名前 10 位，並幫助企業和私募股權贊助商通過公開市場獲得資金。我們還將我們的現金管理和全球市場解決方案與我們的覆蓋範圍相結合。我們對近期收購的潛在協同效應感到興奮，因為我們瞄準關鍵垂直領域的增長，JMP 收購讓我們更深入地進入不斷增長的醫療保健、技術和金融服務領域，擴大了我們的股權承銷並增加了研究能力，DH Capital 擴大了我們的能力互聯網基礎設施、通信領域、軟件和下一代 IT 服務。這些企業在市場重新開放時處於非常有利的位置。

Moving to Slide 17, I'll walk through the outlook for the fourth quarter. We expect NII to be up roughly 3%, driven by the benefit of higher rates with a margin rising to the 3.3% to 3.35% range. Average loans are expected to be stable to up modestly as commercial growth is partially offset by order rundown. These are expected to be stable to up modestly. Noninterest expense is expected to be stable. Net charge-offs are expected to be approximately 20 to 22 basis points. We expect our CET1 ratio to land near the upper end of our target range of 9.5% to 10%.

轉到幻燈片 17，我將介紹第四季度的前景。我們預計 NII 將增長約 3%，這得益於更高的利率，利潤率上升至 3.3% 至 3.35% 的範圍。由於商業增長被訂單減少部分抵消，平均貸款預計將穩定至小幅上升。預計這些將穩定小幅上升。非利息費用預計將保持穩定。預計淨沖銷約為 20 至 22 個基點。我們預計我們的 CET1 比率將接近我們目標範圍 9.5% 至 10% 的上限。

And our tax rate should come in at approximately 22%. With respect to the full year, we continue to track well and expect to beat our full year 2022 guidance across key P&L categories and performance measures. We expect to deliver positive operating leverage for full year 2022 in excess of 5%, with fourth quarter sequential positive operating leverage of about 3%. We also expect to deliver a full year efficiency ratio of about 57% with the fourth quarter coming in under 54%. And we expect to deliver a full year ROTCE in excess of 16% with the fourth quarter well above both Q3 and our medium-term target range of 14% to 16%.

我們的稅率應該在 22% 左右。就全年而言，我們繼續保持良好勢頭，並希望在關鍵損益類別和績效指標上超過我們的 2022 年全年指引。我們預計 2022 年全年的正運營槓桿率將超過 5%，第四季度連續正運營槓桿率約為 3%。我們還預計全年效率比約為 57%，第四季度將低於 54%。我們預計全年 ROTCE 將超過 16%，第四季度遠高於第三季度和我們 14% 至 16% 的中期目標範圍。

To sum up, on Slide 18, we delivered a strong quarter amid a dynamic environment, and we are optimistic about the outlook for the fourth quarter and into 2023. We expect to continue to see significant benefits in our net interest income from the higher rate environment. Our diverse fee business is driving solid results and our capital markets business, in particular, is well positioned for when markets stabilize. And our commitment to operating efficiency remains a hallmark. We are well prepared for a slowdown in the environment with a strong capital, liquidity and funding position, and we are being prudent with respect to our credit risk appetite and loan growth.

總而言之，在幻燈片 18 中，我們在充滿活力的環境中實現了強勁的季度表現，我們對第四季度和 2023 年的前景持樂觀態度。我們預計將繼續從更高的利率中看到我們的淨利息收入顯著收益環境。我們多元化的收費業務正在推動穩健的業績，尤其是我們的資本市場業務在市場穩定時處於有利地位。我們對運營效率的承諾仍然是一個標誌。憑藉強大的資本、流動性和資金狀況，我們為環境放緩做好了充分準備，我們對信用風險偏好和貸款增長持謹慎態度。

At the same time, we are playing some offense executing well on strategic initiatives in each of our businesses that will deliver medium-term growth and outperformance. With that, I'll hand it back over to Bruce.

與此同時，我們在每項業務的戰略舉措上都表現出色，這些舉措將帶來中期增長和卓越表現。有了這個，我會把它交給布魯斯。

Okay. Thank you, John. Alan, why don't we open it up for some Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，約翰。艾倫，我們為什麼不打開它進行一些問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question comes from Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

您的第一個問題來自 Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler。

You could expand a little on your thoughts regarding NII dynamics into next year. I thought the $350 million year-end '23 margin expectation. That was definitely a highlight. And I think just generally, your comments about loan betas overwhelming deposit betas sort of cumulatively those suggest some confidence that and I should continue to grow after the Fed stops tightening, but I just would love to hear your thoughts on the puts and takes and the additional color you might be willing to add.

您可以稍微擴展您對明年 NII 動態的想法。我認為 23 年年底的 3.5 億美元利潤率預期。這絕對是一個亮點。而且我認為一般來說，你關於貸款貝塔壓倒存款貝塔的評論累積起來表明了一些信心，我應該在美聯儲停止收緊政策後繼續增長，但我只是想听聽你對看跌期權和您可能願意添加的其他顏色。

Yes, sure. So just break it down into 2 overall categories. You've got the net interest margin dynamic, which is a big driver, and we're messaging that. We expect our net interest margin to continue to rise. I think loan betas in the last cycle for us were up near 60% or so this cycle, we're doing some more hedging. So you could see our loan betas dropping a little bit. The nice part about that is that it provides a downside protection.

是的，當然。因此，只需將其分為 2 個總體類別。你有淨息差動態，這是一個很大的驅動力，我們正在傳達這一點。我們預計我們的淨息差將繼續上升。我認為我們在上一個週期的貸款貝塔值在這個週期上升了近 60% 左右，我們正在做更多的對沖。所以你可以看到我們的貸款貝塔值下降了一點。關於這一點的好處是它提供了下行保護。

So you're going to see loan betas in the mid- to sort of low to mid-50s. You compare that to a deposit beta, that we previously messaged, would be around 35% or so. Rates have been up 100 basis points since then. I mean you could see our deposit betas may be getting into the upper 30s or thereabouts given -- cumulatively given what's going on with rates in the last -- in the recent couple of months.

因此，您將在 50 年代中期到 50 年代中期看到貸款測試版。您將其與我們之前發送的存款測試版進行比較，大約為 35% 左右。自那時以來，利率已經上漲了 100 個基點。我的意思是你可以看到我們的存款貝塔可能會進入 30 多歲左右，考慮到最近幾個月的利率，累計起來。

So you take that dynamic and see cumulative loan betas and exceeding deposit betas and that drives names higher. We're also remixing on the loan side into more variable. You're seeing the strength of the multiyear investments on the deposit side playing out. And then let's not forget the other aspects of the balance sheet where you've got securities book and that securities book is funded primarily by DDA and some wholesale. And so you can see the front book, back book dynamics really, really taking hold where you've got securities yields on the front book in the fourth quarter somewhere between 4.50% and 5% with a 2% runoff.

因此，您採用這種動態並看到累積貸款貝塔值和超過存款貝塔值，從而推動名稱更高。我們還在貸款方面重新組合成更多變量。您會看到存款方面多年投資的實力正在發揮作用。然後我們不要忘記資產負債表的其他方面，你有證券賬簿，證券賬簿主要由 DDA 和一些批發資金資助。所以你可以看到封面，背書的動態真的，真的在第四季度你的封面上的證券收益率在 4.50% 到 5% 之間，有 2% 的徑流。

And so that's pretty powerful when you've got essentially a strong DDA underpinning what's going on there in the securities book. So those are some of the net interest margin dynamics. If you flip over to the other side of things where you see our opportunity for continued loan growth, we're -- you're seeing us rotate into more of a variable rate approach, solid opportunities in home equity and other aspects in the retail side. But commercial is -- we're feeling optimistic on the commercial side and that's going to drive loan growth into '23.

因此，當您基本上擁有強大的 DDA 來支撐證券書中正在發生的事情時，這非常強大。所以這些是一些淨息差動態。如果您轉而看到我們的貸款持續增長機會的另一面，我們將 - 您看到我們轉向更多的可變利率方法、房屋淨值的可靠機會以及零售業的其他方面邊。但商業是——我們對商業方面感到樂觀，這將推動貸款增長到 23 年。

It will be economic environment dependent. But nevertheless, the underpinning of rising NIMs, I think, is really what gives us the confidence to continue to see that NII improving into '23.

這將取決於經濟環境。但儘管如此，我認為，NIM 上升的基礎確實讓我們有信心繼續看到 NII 改善到 23 年。

All right. That's perfect color. And I guess just with rates having moved so much, just curious about your thoughts on sort of the Citizens Access products. What kind of trends are you observing about sort of the stickiness of those customers? How much is loyal? How much are sort of shopping for rates? And are your tactics at all changing with regards to that product?

好的。那是完美的顏色。我猜只是利率變動如此之大，只是好奇你對公民訪問產品的看法。對於這些客戶的粘性，您觀察到什麼樣的趨勢？忠誠度有多少？購物費率是多少？對於該產品，您的策略是否發生了變化？

Brendan, why don't you take that one?

布倫丹，你為什麼不拿那個？

Yes. Thanks. We're seeing some decent growth in Citizens Access. And the digital native customer still existing out there, and it's waking up a little bit as rates have gone up. So we're -- it's been a very, very effective strategy for us. The customers are loyal to Citizens. We're seeing good augmentation from those customers, a very real brand engaged customers. And the customer base is growing.

是的。謝謝。我們在 Citizens Access 方面看到了一些不錯的增長。數字原生客戶仍然存在，隨著費率的上漲，它正在覺醒。所以我們 - 這對我們來說是一個非常非常有效的策略。客戶忠誠於公民。我們從這些客戶那裡看到了很好的增長，一個非常真實的品牌參與客戶。客戶群正在增長。

So our balance growth is coming from both sides, new customer acquisition and existing customers bringing us more as we brought rates up. But most importantly, it serves to sort of have an isolated deposit-raising strategy to protect the core bank from needing to bring in rate-sensitive customers into the bank. We're really relationship focused in our core franchise and the combination of the health of our deposit franchise improvement led by DDA and privacy of our customers has been really showing up well.

因此，我們的餘額增長來自雙方，新客戶的獲取和現有客戶在我們提高費率時為我們帶來了更多。但最重要的是，它有助於採取一種孤立的存款籌集策略，以保護核心銀行無需將對利率敏感的客戶引入銀行。我們真正專注於我們的核心特許經營的關係，並且由 DDA 領導的存款特許經營改善的健康與我們客戶的隱私相結合，確實表現良好。

So our deposit betas in consumer are dramatically different than they were in the last cycle. And it's really for both of those points, the turnaround and the health of the customer franchise and the core bank and then the effective strategy of using access both to drive national growth but also to have a much more targeted and isolated way to grow interest-bearing deposits. It doesn't make us reprice our whole book. So we're really pleased with how it's playing out. And Citizens Access is right where we thought it would be, and it's being executed really well.

因此，我們在消費者中的存款貝塔值與上一個週期有很大不同。這真的是為了這兩點，客戶特許經營權和核心銀行的轉變和健康，然後是利用訪問來推動國家增長的有效策略，同時也有一個更有針對性和孤立的方式來增加興趣-軸承存款。它不會讓我們為整本書重新定價。所以我們對它的表現非常滿意。 Citizens Access 正好在我們認為的地方，而且執行得非常好。

Then the strategic aspects of Citizens Access that over time is just another benefit of that platform.

然後，隨著時間的推移，公民訪問的戰略方面只是該平台的另一個好處。

Correct. I think that's what -- obviously, we've messaged that on these calls before, but the integration of our Citizens Access deposit platform with all of our national lending businesses to make our national platform much more integrated and customer strategic. John mentioned the launch of our new app and our cloud-based migration. We are making really sizable progress on bringing together all of our national capabilities to deepen those relationships as well as just sort of the deposit angle that we launched with a couple of years back.

正確的。我認為這就是——顯然，我們之前在這些電話中已經傳達了這一點，但是將我們的 Citizens Access 存款平台與我們所有的國家貸款業務整合在一起，使我們的國家平台更加整合和客戶戰略。 John 提到了我們新應用程序的發布和基於雲的遷移。我們在整合我們所有的國家能力以加深這些關係以及我們幾年前推出的某種存款角度方面取得了相當大的進展。

Your next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

Thank you so much for the crisp and impactful messaging from this morning. My first question is for you, Bruce. You have teased that your TOP 8 is underway. And as we think about how much you've improved the bank, and John has certainly helped balance sheet and Brendan and Don have helped balance sheet positioning, what is your vision for what TOP 8 could accomplish? So we're looking at a bank clearly outperforming the market today, outperforming expectations.

非常感謝您從今天早上發出的清晰而有影響力的信息。我的第一個問題是問你的，布魯斯。你開玩笑說你的 TOP 8 正在進行中。當我們考慮到您為銀行改善了多少，John 確實幫助了資產負債表，Brendan 和 Don 幫助了資產負債表定位時，您對 TOP 8 可以實現的目標有什麼看法？因此，我們看到一家銀行今天的表現明顯優於市場，超出預期。

It feels like a lot of the big rates of change have been accomplished in the previous 7 plans. So and that's sort of the genesis of the question. What do you envision TOP 8 to accomplish?

感覺在之前的 7 個計劃中已經完成了很多大的變化率。這就是問題的起源。你認為 TOP 8 要完成什麼？

Yes. Well, Erika, I think when we ended up hitting the TOP 2 and TOP 3, we were getting questions as to how much rearchitecture and reengineering of how you're running the bank is left. Is the -- are you now picking the fruit that's really high in the tree. And yes, it was getting higher in the tree. But I think what we've been able to do is exhibit this mindset of continuous improvement that we're not going to be satisfied with how we're running the bank and we're going to look at all aspects in terms of how we're staffed and organized and our vendor relationships and other kind of efficiency new technology deployment to deliver more efficiencies.

是的。嗯，Erika，我想當我們最終進入 TOP 2 和 TOP 3 時，我們遇到的問題是，您對銀行運營方式的重新架構和重新設計還剩下多少。是——你現在正在採摘樹上很高的果實嗎？是的，它在樹上越來越高。但我認為我們能夠做的是展示這種持續改進的心態，我們不會對我們經營銀行的方式感到滿意，我們會從我們如何看待所有方面人員配備和組織良好，我們的供應商關係和其他效率新技術部署可提供更高的效率。

And so over time, that's just become part of our DNA here. And so we're not going to rest and say, well, we just had another successful result with TOP 7. Let's take a breather, you really can't take a breather because we have investments that we want to fund in our future, the business initiatives that we list on a couple of the slides in consumer and commercial, and that requires net investment in CapEx and OpEx and in order to fund those things, having these top programs and finding efficiencies to self-finance those investments and keep the overall rate of expense growth modest is the equation that we've used to drive ROTCE from the 5% when we started at the IPO to 18% levels today.

所以隨著時間的推移，這只是成為我們這裡 DNA 的一部分。所以我們不會停下來說，好吧，我們剛剛取得了 TOP 7 的另一個成功結果。讓我們喘口氣，你真的不能喘口氣，因為我們有我們想要在未來投資的投資，我們在消費者和商業的幾張幻燈片上列出的業務計劃，需要對資本支出和運營支出進行淨投資，並為這些事情提供資金，擁有這些頂級項目並找到效率來為這些投資自籌資金並保持總體費用增長率適度是我們用來將 ROTCE 從 IPO 開始時的 5% 提高到今天的 18% 的等式。

So I think you're going to continue to see us pursue that mindset of continuous improvement and don't be surprised when we have a successful announcement and execution of TOP 8 that there might be even more TOP programs down the road after that.

因此，我認為您將繼續看到我們追求持續改進的心態，當我們成功宣布和執行 TOP 8 時，您不會感到驚訝，因為在那之後可能會有更多的 TOP 項目。

Got it. And just a few cleanup questions. Thank you so much for giving us a lot of color on the ACL. I'm wondering what the weighted average unemployment rate that you assume in the 1.41% ACL today. And just, John, a quick cleanup question to Scott's line of questioning. As we think about the NII dynamics into next year, what are you assuming about deposit growth and deposit mix shift?

知道了。還有幾個清理問題。非常感謝您在 ACL 上給了我們很多顏色。我想知道你今天在 1.41% ACL 中假設的加權平均失業率是多少。約翰，對斯科特的提問進行快速清理問題。當我們考慮明年的 NII 動態時，您對存款增長和存款組合轉變有何假設？

Yes. I'll just take the -- the first one is we're using some fairly conservative assumptions when we set the ACL. So I would characterize it as a moderate recession rather than a short recession. And the unemployment levels get up over 6% is kind of where we've modeled it. So we think we're being fairly conservative, but we reassess that each quarter. So John, I'll hand the deposit question over to you.

是的。我將僅採用- 第一個是我們在設置ACL 時使用了一些相當保守的假設。因此，我將其描述為溫和的衰退，而不是短暫的衰退。失業率上升超過 6% 是我們模擬的地方。所以我們認為我們相當保守，但我們每個季度都會重新評估。約翰，我會把押金問題交給你。

Yes, sure. And I think some of the trends that you'll likely see into the fourth quarter continue into '23. But I'd say the couple of items I'd highlight are starting with the customer value proposition that you're seeing us continue to invest in. It's been multiyears to build this deposit platform. And in both consumer and commercial those investments are coming to fruition and demonstrating themselves that we're continuing to invest. So you're seeing just core deposit growth coming from that. And you heard Brendan and us talk about CitizensPlus as an example of the core growth that we think can give us some unique ability to take some share into '23. Citizens Access and the retail CD arena is a place where we have taken that down close to 0. And so that will come back a bit in that category.

是的，當然。而且我認為您可能會在第四季度看到的一些趨勢會持續到 23 年。但我想說我要強調的幾個項目是從您看到我們繼續投資的客戶價值主張開始的。建立這個存款平台已經很多年了。在消費者和商業領域，這些投資正在取得成果，並表明我們正在繼續投資。所以你看到的只是核心存款增長。你聽過 Brendan 和我們談論 CitizensPlus 作為核心增長的一個例子，我們認為這可以讓我們有一些獨特的能力在 23 年獲得一些份額。 Citizens Access 和零售 CD 領域是我們將其降低到接近 0 的地方。因此，在該類別中會稍微回歸。

Let's not forget New York Metro. We've entered New York Metro and we're starting to see really nice uptake that once we converted HSBC, we're going to convert ISBC in the first quarter in '23. So we suspect that we're going to start to see some lift coming out of that.

讓我們不要忘記紐約地鐵。我們已經進入紐約地鐵，並且我們開始看到非常好的吸收，一旦我們轉換匯豐銀行，我們將在 23 年第一季度轉換 ISBC。所以我們懷疑我們將開始看到一些提升。

And then just broadly in commercial, the product and coverage investments that we've been making over the years and continue to make will offset what we're building in what I've just described will offset our expectation, we're going to have some DDA migration as rates rise. So that's built into our outlook and built into the NIM guide that we're going to have some realistic expectations of the migration. So it was just some of the areas I would highlight.

然後從廣義上講，我們多年來一直在進行並繼續進行的產品和覆蓋範圍投資將抵消我剛才描述的我們正在構建的內容，這將抵消我們的預期，我們將擁有隨著利率上升，一些 DDA 遷移。因此，這是我們的展望和 NIM 指南中的一部分，我們將對遷移有一些現實的期望。所以這只是我要強調的一些領域。

Your next question will come from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Some really good detail on credit back in the appendix, Page 24 for retail and 25 on commercial. And obviously, you guys have improved the mix in both areas over the last few years. But are there any signs of weakness within certain kind of customer groups that you could point to? And then like what leading indicators might you suggest that we watch and that you pay attention to.

附錄中有一些關於信用的非常好的細節，第 24 頁是零售頁，第 25 頁是商業頁。顯然，你們在過去幾年裡改善了這兩個領域的組合。但是，您可以指出某些類型的客戶群中是否有任何弱點跡象？然後就像您可能建議我們觀察和關注的領先指標一樣。

Yes, I'll start and then maybe turn it over to my colleagues for some additional color. But Matt, I think what continues to be very positive is that the expectation that things will normalize back to pre-COVID levels continues to be deferred. And so we're only seeing very slow migration in terms of consumer charge-offs and NPAs and delinquencies still kind of better than pre-pandemic period. And I would highlight there that our focus on very high-quality borrowers in these portfolios, super prime and high prime, those folks are still doing pretty well through the current environment and have a lot of liquidity. And so we feel really good about where things sit in consumer.

是的，我會開始，然後可能會將其交給我的同事以獲得一些額外的顏色。但是馬特，我認為仍然非常積極的是，事情將恢復正常回到 COVID 之前水平的期望繼續被推遲。因此，就消費者沖銷、不良資產和拖欠情況而言，我們只看到遷移非常緩慢，但仍比大流行前時期要好。我要強調的是，我們關注這些投資組合中非常高質量的借款人，超級優質和優質借款人，這些人在當前環境下仍然做得很好，並且擁有大量流動性。因此，我們對消費者所處的位置感覺非常好。

Similarly, in commercial over time, we've migrated to lend to kind of bigger companies, so mid-corporate space companies with in excess of 500 in revenues, and they tend to be more diversified and better credits. And so we also see very solid performance metrics across all the things, NPAs and charge-offs, et cetera.

同樣，在商業方面，隨著時間的推移，我們已經轉向向更大的公司提供貸款，例如收入超過 500 的中型企業航天公司，它們往往更加多元化和更好的信用。因此，我們還看到了所有方面的非常可靠的性能指標，NPA 和沖銷等等。

On that side, you've got to go to the usual suspects, if you think the economy is weakening, and that would be commercial real estate, leveraged lending. And then maybe certain sectors in nonprofit, which we've heightened our monitoring in those areas, but we don't see any smoke at this point. So maybe with that, let me turn it to Don for additional color on.

在這方面，如果你認為經濟正在走弱，你必須去找通常的嫌疑人，那就是商業房地產、槓桿貸款。然後也許是非營利組織中的某些部門，我們已經加強了對這些領域的監控，但目前我們沒有看到任何煙霧。所以也許有了這個，讓我把它交給唐來增加顏色。

Yes, I think you hit it. We've actually activated our downturn playbook, which involves a lot of incremental stressing, a lot of incremental portfolio management and a lot of incremental conversations with clients. I think there's a couple of pieces of good news just supporting the lack of deterioration in credit. One is -- we think management teams going through the pandemic, got incredibly focused on efficiency in their business and they cut costs and they automate it and they built liquidity and the repaired balance sheets and they hedged and they did a lot of things that were prudent from a risk standpoint.

是的，我認為你擊中了它。我們實際上已經啟動了我們的低迷劇本，其中涉及大量增量壓力、大量增量投資組合管理以及大量與客戶的增量對話。我認為有幾個好消息只是支持信貸沒有惡化。一個是——我們認為管理團隊在經歷大流行時，非常關注他們的業務效率，他們削減成本，自動化，他們建立流動性和修復資產負債表，他們對沖，他們做了很多事情從風險的角度來看是謹慎的。

So there's a little bit of a buffer, we think, in the portfolio against what could be deterioration if we go into a deep recession. I'd say the thing we're most focused on is the real estate office portfolio given back to work.

因此，我們認為，如果我們陷入深度衰退，投資組合中有一點緩衝可能會惡化。我想說我們最關注的事情是讓房地產辦公室投資組合重新開始工作。

We've got fully leased office buildings and those leases are running for a couple of years in the future, but we've got lease rolls that we're focused on and whether they're going to renew or not. I think just personally, I guess I was in New York City yesterday, people are back in the office.

我們有完全租賃的辦公樓，這些租約在未來會持續幾年，但我們有我們關注的租賃卷，以及它們是否會續簽。我個人認為，我想我昨天在紐約市，人們又回到了辦公室。

And the other thing is that the high percentage of our office property is (inaudible).

另一件事是，我們辦公物業的高比例是（聽不清）。

Yes, yes. And then a lot of it's suburban. So it's in the right places. And a lot of it's in places which are in the southern tier and things like that. So we don't have a lot of San Francisco, for example, where they're going to have -- there's going to be a lot of distress. So MSAs are important in the real estate business. And I think the leverage book is that you always look at the leverage -- the sponsor leverage book. Our strategy there, which is high levels of diversification.

是的是的。然後很多都是郊區的。所以它在正確的地方。很多都在南部地區之類的地方。所以我們沒有很多舊金山，例如，他們將擁有的地方 - 會有很多痛苦。因此，MSA 在房地產業務中很重要。而且我認為槓桿書是你總是看槓桿 - 贊助商槓桿書。我們的戰略是高度多元化。

Our average hold is kind of $10 million to $12 million. So we do a lot of leverage for that, but we distribute 95% to 97% of it. So -- and we're not really seeing any kind of severe stress in the leverage book. So we feel pretty good. And all the early stats, the crit-class ratios, the nonperforming loans, the watch assets, which we have very significant process around all seem to be in pretty good shape right now, but we're not sleep. The other thing I'll mention, and John touched on this, we are being incredibly disciplined on new originations. We're really not taking on any new clients right now. we're getting very focused on returns. We're actually commanding a higher level of pricing given the current market environment. So we're watching the front book very carefully also.

我們的平均持有量在 1000 萬到 1200 萬美元之間。所以我們為此做了很多槓桿，但我們分配了其中的 95% 到 97%。所以 - 我們並沒有真正在槓桿書中看到任何嚴重的壓力。所以我們感覺還不錯。所有的早期統計數據、暴擊率、不良貸款、手錶資產，我們有非常重要的流程，現在似乎都處於很好的狀態，但我們沒有睡覺。我要提到的另一件事，約翰談到了這一點，我們在新的起源上受到了難以置信的紀律。我們現在真的沒有接受任何新客戶。我們非常關注回報。鑑於當前的市場環境，我們實際上掌握了更高水平的定價。所以我們也在非常仔細地看前書。

Yes. How about you, Brendan?

是的。你呢，布倫丹？

Yes. I'd say the health of the consumer is still very, very resilient. Having said that, -- we're doing a lot of the similar things that Don is mentioning, kind of putting in a proactive approach to a potential downturn. So making investments in collections be ready for an inevitable tick in the wrong direction. We're tightening some credit on the margins. We're being incredibly disciplined on where we're lending right now to make sure that the returns are right, and we got real customer relationships, and it's within the risk profile that is within our risk appetite. Having said all that, with what we're seeing kind of out the window today, the consumer is still 20% plus excess liquidity in deposits as a general statement, and charge-offs are still 50% to 60% of the rates that they were pre-COVID, and we're not seeing any meaningful signs of that reinflating.

是的。我想說消費者的健康狀況仍然非常非常有彈性。話雖如此， - 我們正在做很多唐提到的類似事情，對潛在的低迷採取積極主動的態度。因此，對收藏品進行投資準備好迎接不可避免的錯誤方向。我們正在收緊一些邊際信貸。我們現在在放貸的地方非常自律，以確保回報是正確的，我們得到了真正的客戶關係，而且這在我們的風險偏好範圍內的風險狀況範圍內。說了這麼多，我們今天看到的情況似乎已經過去了，作為一般性聲明，消費者的存款流動性仍然是 20% 加上過剩的流動性，而沖銷仍然是他們所支付利率的 50% 到 60%是在 COVID 之前，我們沒有看到任何有意義的重新膨脹的跡象。

If you look at the overall U.S. the bottom decile or 2 of the country, you're starting to see that excess deposits burn off and they're living more paycheck to paycheck, which is where they were pre-COVID. We don't over-index on that segment. And so we index much higher. And so we're not seeing a lot of the pain that is potentially happening at the very bottom of the segment in the U.S. flowing through anything in our book. Look, we're seeing some very, very early signs that potentially were at the early days of a normalization. Credit card customers that pay in full each month. That was about 32% of our portfolio pre-COVID. It's now at 41%. It peaked at 42%. So it's down a tiny bit, but it's still significantly better than where it was before COVID.

如果您查看整個美國的最低十分位數或 2 個國家，您會開始看到多餘的存款被燒掉，他們的薪水越來越高，這是他們在 COVID 之前的狀態。我們不會在該細分市場上過度索引。所以我們的指數要高得多。因此，我們沒有看到美國這一細分市場的最底層可能發生的很多痛苦流經我們書中的任何內容。看，我們看到了一些非常非常早期的跡象，這些跡象可能是在正常化的早期。每月全額付款的信用卡客戶。這大約是我們在 COVID 之前的投資組合的 32%。現在是41%。它達到了 42% 的峰值。所以它下降了一點點，但它仍然比 COVID 之前的水平要好得多。

So we're starting to see small signs of potentially customers getting to, but I wouldn't say it's accelerating at all. It's still very resilient and significantly healthier than where it was pre-COVID.

因此，我們開始看到潛在客戶進入的小跡象，但我不會說它正在加速。它仍然非常有彈性，並且比 COVID 之前的情況要健康得多。

Your next question will come from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Just wanted to follow-up one on credit. I think if I heard you correctly that your ACL assumes a 6% unemployment rate. just I mean, I think CECL is still relatively new. I'm trying to understand, absent that unemployment sat expectations going materially higher. Just if you could give us the thought process around drivers of additional reserve build over the coming quarters? Is it the CRE market? Is it home prices? But what I'm trying to get to is unemployment at 3.5%, 6% seems a long ways away. If that doesn't go much higher, what else would drive those reserves materially higher relative to where we ended the quarter.

只是想跟進一個賒賬。我想如果我沒聽錯的話，你的 ACL 假設失業率為 6%。只是我的意思是，我認為 CECL 還是比較新的。我試圖理解，如果沒有失業率預期會大幅提高。是否可以向我們提供有關未來幾個季度增加儲備的驅動因素的思考過程？是CRE市場嗎？是房價嗎？但我想要達到的是 3.5% 的失業率，6% 似乎還有很長的路要走。如果這不會更高，那麼相對於我們在本季度結束時的水平，還有什麼會推動這些儲備大幅上升。

Yes, I'll go ahead and start there. I mean I think that, first, I'd like to just make sure we're reminded. So we've got 141 basis points against the portfolio right now. When you pro forma adjust that for investors and some other things, you get a day 1 of about 130. So we're 11 basis points over day 1. So that covers a lot. And so we're covering the environment that Bruce described earlier. I think you could -- and he also mentioned a few pockets of areas that we're watching very closely. So we're watching the CRE office space, and we're watching a few sectors on the C&I side. Just reminding that we're not seeing any -- when you look at where delinquencies are, we're not seeing any early signs of any deterioration here. But that could change, and that could change quickly. So we're keeping a close eye on it. But -- and as things turn, we'll have those areas of concern that we were focused on in the pandemic, which -- most of which got cleaned out and has been improved over time, but those are -- that's the playbook, we'll go back to -- we'll go back to those areas of concern and take it in...

是的，我會繼續從那裡開始。我的意思是我認為，首先，我想確保我們得到提醒。因此，我們現在對投資組合有 141 個基點。當你為投資者和其他一些事情進行備考調整時，你會得到大約 130 的第 1 天。所以我們比第 1 天高 11 個基點。所以這涵蓋了很多。因此，我們將介紹布魯斯之前描述的環境。我認為你可以——他還提到了我們正在密切關注的一些領域。因此，我們正在關注 CRE 辦公空間，我們正在關注 C&I 方面的一些部門。只是提醒一下，我們沒有看到任何 - 當您查看拖欠情況時，我們沒有看到任何惡化的早期跡象。但這可能會改變，而且可能會很快改變。所以我們正在密切關注它。但是——隨著事情的發展，我們將關注那些我們在大流行中關注的領域，其中大部分已經被清理掉並且隨著時間的推移得到了改善，但那些是——這就是劇本，我們會回到 - 我們會回到那些關注的領域並接受它......

I would just add that I think we're feeling pretty good. If you look at a scenario that says we get to a moderate recession and it doesn't get any worse, then the need to actually keep building may lessen from what it was this quarter. I think there was a reassessment, but the Fed is going to have to stay at higher rates, which probably increases the probability of recession a little bit, and that was reflected in going up before basis points.

我只想補充一點，我認為我們感覺很好。如果你看一個場景，說我們進入了溫和的衰退並且它沒有變得更糟，那麼實際上繼續建設的需求可能會比本季度有所減少。我認為進行了重新評估，但美聯儲將不得不保持較高的利率，這可能會稍微增加經濟衰退的可能性，這反映在基點之前的上漲中。

So you'd have to see even greater conviction that we're likely to hit a recession or the Fed is going to go higher with rates, which is going to have more collateral damage for the need to build on the macro outlook.

因此，您必須更加確信我們可能會陷入衰退，或者美聯儲將加息，這將對建立宏觀前景的需要產生更多的附帶損害。

Of course, the other things that contribute to higher provision is loan growth. So if we have loan growth and then I think also as John indicated, if we have a kind of changing view on certain sector risks, we already have overlays, for example, for the things we mentioned. We have kind of reserve built for commercial real estate office.

當然，導致撥備增加的其他因素是貸款增長。因此，如果我們有貸款增長，那麼我認為也正如約翰所說，如果我們對某些行業風險有一種改變的看法，我們已經有了覆蓋，例如，對於我們提到的事情。我們有一種為商業地產寫字樓而建的儲備。

We think that's sufficient, but our view on that could change over time. So I think we're kind of sitting at a pretty good spot now. We'll have to wait and see what happens with the macro forecast in certain sectors and the amount of loan growth that comes through those things would determine whether we have to keep building the reserve and how much. I would say that I think that the concerns that we're going to be building the way we did during the pandemic and oh my gosh, these numbers can be kind of a runaway freight train. We don't see that at all at this point.

我們認為這就足夠了，但我們對此的看法可能會隨著時間而改變。所以我認為我們現在處於一個相當不錯的位置。我們將不得不拭目以待，看看某些行業的宏觀預測會發生什麼，而這些因素帶來的貸款增長量將決定我們是否必須繼續建立儲備以及增加多少。我想說的是，我認為我們將按照我們在大流行期間的方式進行建設，哦，天哪，這些數字可能是一種失控的貨運列車。在這一點上，我們根本看不到這一點。

So I think those peers are overblown. It's probably one of the reasons that's cast a poll over thanks to our valuations. But at this point, we don't see that.

所以我認為那些同行被誇大了。由於我們的估值，這可能是進行民意調查的原因之一。但在這一點上，我們看不到這一點。

That's good color. And just one question, Bruce, on the New York strategy. So once you complete investors integration first quarter next year, give us a sense of like should we expect like are you adding new bankers. What are the capabilities you're adding to the franchise, just given how huge that market can be in terms of just market share gains, not just for next year, but for the next few years yes.

這個顏色不錯布魯斯，只有一個關於紐約戰略的問題。因此，一旦您在明年第一季度完成投資者整合，請給我們一種感覺，我們是否應該期待您增加新的銀行家。考慮到這個市場在市場份額增長方面的巨大潛力，你為特許經營增加了哪些能力，不僅僅是明年，而是未來幾年是的。

Sure. So I'll start, and then maybe I'll ask Don and Brendan to talk about their businesses. But I think that theory has been that we bring a thoughtful approach to how we bank these markets. We really understand neighborhoods. We understand individuals, and we really tailor advice to situations to where somebody is on their life journey kind of where they reside, et cetera. And on the corporate side, we also want to be that thought leadership position where we're the trusted adviser to a company as it's negotiating its many challenges in trying to achieve growth. And we've been able to stake out that ground successfully in the major cities that we compete in. We do it well in Boston. We do it well in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, some of our other big cities. And so notwithstanding the fact that New York is a relatively crowded and competitive marketplace. We think that our style can be successful in New York. It's going to take a little time. We've bought some good foundational assets. We need to bring our additional kind of culture and approach and bring our broader product set so we can do more for customers and give them more advice and better capabilities, better customer experience, but we think we'll be successful in that over time. So in effect, this is a bet on ourselves. And so far, everything is tracking exactly the way we had expected with little signs of green shoots that we're kind of on to something pretty good. With that, let me maybe go to Brendan first and talk about the consumer and small business side and kind of where you're making investments and a view of the future.

當然。所以我會開始，然後也許我會請 Don 和 Brendan 談談他們的業務。但我認為這個理論是我們為這些市場的銀行業務帶來了一種深思熟慮的方法。我們非常了解社區。我們了解個人，並且我們確實針對某人在他們的生活旅程中的情況（例如他們居住的地方等）量身定制建議。在企業方面，我們也希望成為思想領導者，在該職位上，我們是一家公司值得信賴的顧問，因為它正在努力應對許多挑戰以實現增長。而且我們已經能夠在我們競爭的主要城市成功地佔領這片土地。我們在波士頓做得很好。我們在費城、匹茲堡和其他一些大城市做得很好。因此，儘管紐約是一個相對擁擠和競爭激烈的市場。我們認為我們的風格可以在紐約取得成功。這需要一點時間。我們已經購買了一些不錯的基礎資產。我們需要帶來我們額外的文化和方法，帶來我們更廣泛的產品組合，這樣我們就可以為客戶做更多的事情，給他們更多的建議和更好的能力，更好的客戶體驗，但我們認為隨著時間的推移我們會在這方面取得成功。所以實際上，這是對我們自己的賭注。到目前為止，一切都在按照我們預期的方式進行，幾乎沒有綠芽跡象表明我們正在做一些非常好的事情。有了這個，讓我先去 Brendan 談談消費者和小企業方面，以及你在哪裡進行投資和對未來的看法。

Yes. We're incredibly pleased with start in New York City post the HSBC acquisition. And as John mentioned, too, we've already started some integration with investors on mortgage and wealth in New Jersey and some of the borrowers in New York. We're hiring. So we're hiring investment of financial advisers, mortgage loan officers and business bankers. We're also restacking the retail organization and using talent across the board. And so far, it has really paid dividends. The New York market and from a branch network standpoint is the most productive market out of any of our markets so far. Early days, which is an incredibly good early sign. And we're getting a lot of customers coming back to us from some of the big banks, including HSBC customers that enjoyed that we didn't buy, but enjoyed the location of the people, and we're really starting to see some growth.

是的。我們對在匯豐收購後的紐約市開始感到非常高興。正如約翰所提到的，我們已經開始與新澤西州的抵押貸款和財富投資者以及紐約的一些借款人進行一些整合。我們正在招聘。因此，我們正在招聘財務顧問、抵押貸款官員和商業銀行家的投資。我們還在重組零售組織並全面使用人才。到目前為止，它確實獲得了回報。從分支機構網絡的角度來看，紐約市場是迄今為止我們所有市場中生產力最高的市場。早期，這是一個非常好的早期跡象。我們從一些大銀行吸引了很多客戶，包括匯豐銀行的客戶，他們喜歡我們沒有購買，但喜歡人們的位置，我們真的開始看到一些增長.

Typically, when you do a branch deposit deal, you see some deposit runoff to the 10% to 20% in the first year. We're actually seeing the opposite. The underlying retail deposit base is actually net growing in New York right away, we didn't have any attrition post legal day 1.

通常，當您進行分行存款交易時，您會看到第一年的一些存款徑流達到 10% 到 20%。我們實際上看到了相反的情況。基本的零售存款基礎實際上在紐約立即淨增長，我們在法定第 1 天沒有任何減員。

So there's a long way for us to continue to build share and that's early signs, but we're very bullish on what we're seeing so far. And then the investors franchise, they kind of lead business banking more than consumer and we're excited about that. We think the investors' capabilities and their distribution can help us accelerate our business banking strategy overall across the franchise. And then when we put our consumer playbook on the investor franchise, we're seeing this big benefit already of HSBC, and they were principally a retail franchise.

因此，我們要繼續建立份額還有很長的路要走，這是早期跡象，但我們非常看好我們目前所看到的。然後是投資者特許經營權，他們比消費者更能領導商業銀行業務，我們對此感到興奮。我們認為投資者的能力和他們的分佈可以幫助我們在整個特許經營中加速我們的商業銀行戰略。然後，當我們將消費者手冊放在投資者特許經營權上時，我們已經看到匯豐銀行的巨大好處，而且它們主要是零售特許經營權。

When we put that on the investors franchise that didn't have a meaningful retail presence. The difference from what we bought and what we can build over time is even more substantial. So we're very excited about it. There's still a lot to do, but early signs are very positive. Don?

當我們把它放在沒有有意義的零售存在的投資者特許經營權上時。與我們購買的東西和隨著時間的推移我們可以建造的東西之間的差異甚至更大。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。還有很多工作要做，但早期跡象非常積極。大學教師？

I would point at 3 things. One is the ability, as you said, is to deliver a much broader product set into the existing investors franchise. So greatly expanded treasury services capabilities, for example, the ability to hedge directly for clients, and that's well underway. And we pick up a lot of very good bankers from the investor side. So our workforce kind of quadruples overnight just with the acquisition. Second thing is we're going to benefit on the commercial side from all the branding that Brendan was doing. So the visibility in New York City of branches and advertising and the like is the name recognition is helpful.

我會指出 3 件事。正如您所說，一個是能夠為現有投資者的特許經營權提供更廣泛的產品集。因此，極大地擴展了資金服務能力，例如直接為客戶對沖的能力，這正在順利進行。我們從投資者方面挑選了很多非常優秀的銀行家。因此，僅通過收購，我們的員工就在一夜之間翻了兩番。第二件事是我們將從 Brendan 所做的所有品牌推廣中受益於商業方面。所以在紐約市的分店和廣告等的知名度對於知名度的識別是很有幫助的。

So we don't have to explain what citizens is to potential new clients. And we are also hiring. We announced yesterday a new market head for New York City Metro, which came from JPMorgan. So we've got a new leader in place in New York, and we're off to the races.

所以我們不必向潛在的新客戶解釋什麼是公民。我們也在招聘。我們昨天宣布了紐約市地鐵的新市場負責人，他來自摩根大通。所以我們在紐約有了一個新的領導者，我們要去參加比賽了。

Your next question will come from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

您的下一個問題將來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

First, kudos for a very good slide presentation, you guys gave quite a bit of detail. It's one of the best out there. So John, talking about your hedges that you put into place, Slide 23 gives us a good breakout of what you have in place. Can you share with us -- Obviously, it's protecting should rates start to go down, I would assume in late '23 and into '24. What kind of rate environment would work against what you just put into place or what you've had in place and you put more into place this quarter. What kind of rate outlook would that -- this would not really work that well with.

首先，感謝您提供了非常好的幻燈片演示，你們提供了相當多的細節。這是那裡最好的之一。所以約翰，談到你設置的對沖，幻燈片 23 讓我們很好地突破了你所擁有的東西。你能和我們分享一下——顯然，如果利率開始下降，它會起到保護作用，我會假設在 23 年末到 24 年。什麼樣的利率環境會與您剛剛實施的或您已經實施的以及您在本季度實施的更多實施不符。那會是什麼樣的利率前景——這不會真的很好用。

Yes. I mean, well, let me just start off with I think that the point of getting those hedges on in the third quarter was to allow ourselves to continue to participate in 2023 with rates rising. And so the intent of all of that was to look past this next year into '24 and '25 and say, if in fact, we end up with lower regime in those years, let's try to find ourselves into a floor that would help maintain the level of ROTCEs that we're trying to achieve. And so we're stabilizing revenues and stabilizing our returns by doing this. Now of course, there's a trade-off.

是的。我的意思是，好吧，讓我開始吧，我認為在第三季度進行這些對沖的目的是讓我們在利率上升的情況下繼續參與到 2023 年。因此，所有這一切的目的是回顧明年的 24 年和 25 年，然後說，如果事實上，那些年我們最終會得到較低的政權，讓我們試著找到一個有助於維持的底線我們試圖達到的 ROTCE 水平。因此，我們正在通過這樣做來穩定收入並穩定我們的回報。當然，現在有一個權衡。

That trade-off is, if rates instead of beginning to come down in '24, they were to remain high or go even higher, that would be an opportunity cost. But nevertheless, on an absolute basis, we've got very attractive returns being locked in through this strategy. And I think that's really what we're trying to achieve.

這種權衡是，如果利率不是在 24 年開始下降，而是保持高位或更高，那將是機會成本。但是，儘管如此，在絕對基礎上，我們通過這種策略獲得了非常有吸引力的回報。我認為這確實是我們正在努力實現的目標。

Gerard, it's tricky. You're trying to find a sweet spot and you're looking at the forward curve and talking to economists, looking at economic forecasts and leaving yourself enough upside participation for high rates, but then also recognizing that they're not going to stay up forever and trying to floor out your downside. And so the time will tell. Hindsight is always 2020. If you went too early or you missed the window, if you had held off another 6 months because you've gotten better levels. But right now, we feel -- we've done a pretty good job of, as you can see from the results today, we're still asset sensitive. We're still benefiting as rates go up. And now we can sleep at night that we're not going to see ROTCE slide down the pole if rates turn around and go back down.

杰拉德，這很棘手。你試圖找到一個甜蜜點，你正在查看遠期曲線並與經濟學家交談，查看經濟預測並為高利率留出足夠的上行參與，但同時也認識到他們不會熬夜永遠，並試圖消除你的缺點。所以時間會證明一切。後見之明總是 2020 年。如果你去得太早或錯過了窗口期，如果你又推遲了 6 個月，因為你已經獲得了更好的水平。但是現在，我們覺得 - 我們做得很好，正如你從今天的結果中看到的那樣，我們仍然對資產敏感。隨著利率上升，我們仍在受益。現在我們可以在晚上睡覺了，如果利率回落並回落，我們不會看到 ROTCE 滑下極點。

Very good. Is it safe to assume all the counterparties or the major global investment banks in these hedges?

很好。在這些對沖中假設所有交易對手或全球主要投資銀行是否安全？

Yes. Exactly (inaudible).

是的。完全正確（聽不清）。

Okay. And then just the second follow-up question. Obviously, you're not an advanced approach bank. And therefore, the AOCI is not an issue with your CET1 ratio, which is the binding constraint for most banks or all banks. When do you think people start to get a little concerned about the tangible common equity ratio, Yours are still very healthy. But is there -- do you guys -- I know it's an accounting issue. We all get that. But do you think there will be a concern if it gets too low? and do you have any idea what that rate might be? And then second, John, when you accrete the AOCI back into capital as the bonds pay off, do you know about how much will start coming in starting maybe next year in terms of the AOCI coming back into capital?

好的。然後是第二個後續問題。顯然，您不是高級方法庫。因此，AOCI 與您的 CET1 比率無關，這是對大多數銀行或所有銀行的約束性約束。你認為人們什麼時候開始有點擔心有形普通股比例，你的還是很健康的。但是有沒有 - 你們 - 我知道這是一個會計問題。我們都明白這一點。但是，如果它變得太低，您認為會有問題嗎？你知道這個比率可能是多少嗎？其次，約翰，當您在債券還清時將 AOCI 重新註入資本時，您是否知道從 AOCI 重新進入資本方面可能會從明年開始流入多少？

Yes. Maybe I'll just start to say that we did put the TCE to TA ratio into our presentation deck today. Because we do think it's worth keeping an eye on that. And some folks in the peer group have either have bigger securities portfolio or didn't put as much in HTM and the TCE to TA ratio is sliding quite a bit. Ours is sliding a little bit, but still appears pretty healthy. You could argue that if that's not a regulatory ratio. It's not really something to worry about significantly because it will turn around over time. It's just effectively you've got these securities that are going to be earning you less than if you were able to take the cash and reinvest in at today's levels.

是的。也許我會開始說我們今天確實將 TCE 與 TA 的比率放入了我們的演示文稿中。因為我們確實認為值得關注這一點。同行中的一些人要么擁有更大的證券投資組合，要么沒有在 HTM 上投入那麼多，而且 TCE 與 TA 的比率正在下滑。我們的略有下滑，但看起來仍然很健康。你可以爭辯說，如果這不是一個監管比率。這並不是真正值得擔心的事情，因為它會隨著時間的推移而好轉。實際上，您擁有的這些證券將比您能夠在今天的水平上拿走現金並再投資時為您帶來更少的收益。

So anyway, I think we feel good, we're above 6% in historical times. It's kind of been a marker, and I think we can sustain it there. We have about 30% of the overall portfolio in held to maturity, and we'll have to see where rates go. But if they go up a little bit from here, we're going to continue to generate capital, we think we can keep it at pretty healthy levels.

所以無論如何，我認為我們感覺很好，我們在歷史上超過 6%。它有點像一個標記，我認為我們可以在那里維持它。我們有大約 30% 的整體投資組合持有至到期，我們將不得不看看利率走向何方。但是，如果它們從這裡上升一點，我們將繼續產生資本，我們認為我們可以將其保持在相當健康的水平。

John, I'll turn it over for you for kind of the turnaround and the rest of the answer.

約翰，我會為你轉過頭來為你提供周轉和其他答案。

Yes. Great. And just to supplement the earlier one, I mean we've got our held to maturity is around 30% right now, it sort of balances that a little bit from -- to that point as well. As it relates to the -- how the AOCI will come back in, if rates kind of don't move around on us, just the way to think about it at September 30, we have about $4.5 billion after tax sitting in that number. And that will come in over about 5 years. So that gives you an ability to work through that, hopefully, Gerard.

是的。偉大的。只是為了補充前面的那個，我的意思是我們現在持有至到期的比例約為 30%，從 - 到那個點，它有點平衡。因為它涉及到 - AOCI 將如何回歸，如果利率不會對我們產生影響，只是在 9 月 30 日考慮它的方式，我們有大約 45 億美元的稅後坐在這個數字上。這將在大約 5 年內到來。所以這讓你有能力解決這個問題，希望是杰拉德。

Your next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

This is Brian Wilczynski on for Betsy. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the expectation to resume buybacks in 4Q and just some of the puts and takes there. You were just talking about capital a moment ago. Obviously, your reg capital position is quite strong today. But at the same time, the macro backdrop is still a bit challenging. So I was just wondering what makes you comfortable at resuming buybacks at this stage?

這是 Betsy 的 Brian Wilczynski。我想知道你是否可以談談在第四季度恢復回購的預期以及一些看跌期權。你剛才在談論資本。顯然，您今天的註冊資本狀況相當強勁。但與此同時，宏觀背景仍然具有一定的挑戰性。所以我只是想知道是什麼讓你在這個階段恢復回購感到舒服？

So we are kind of at the north end of our 9.5% to 10% range. And we indicated we would expect to land there at the end of the year. So I think if you look at our target range relative to peers, we've been a little on a conservative side, which I think, has served us well and particularly going into an environment with a significant amount of uncertainty, that's the position we want to be in.

因此，我們處於 9.5% 到 10% 範圍的北端。我們表示我們希望在今年年底登陸那裡。所以我認為，如果你看看我們相對於同行的目標範圍，我們有點保守，我認為這對我們很有幫助，特別是進入一個充滿不確定性的環境，這就是我們的立場想進去。

Having said that, you can see the level of profitability we have now is very significant. So we're generating a huge amount of tangible equity each quarter, this quarter, next quarter. And so we could certainly blow past 10% if we weren't back in the market buying our stock. So I think there's opportunity for us to even improve that ratio a little further and be in the market buying our stock. The wild card often is the amount of balance sheet growth and the amount of -- are there any acquisitions likely in the near term. And I think on that score, we've given you the guidance for what we see for loan growth. So that's factored in.

話雖如此，您可以看到我們現在的盈利水平非常重要。因此，我們每個季度、本季度、下一季度都會產生大量有形資產。因此，如果我們不回到市場購買我們的股票，我們肯定會超過 10%。所以我認為我們有機會進一步提高這個比率並在市場上購買我們的股票。外卡通常是資產負債表增長的數量以及短期內是否可能進行任何收購的數量。我認為在這一點上，我們已經為您提供了我們所看到的貸款增長的指導。所以這是考慮在內的。

And then I'd say on the acquisitions, we've really only done very small acquisitions so far this year. We've really been a 100% focus on making sure we're integrating the ones we did last year, we had a pretty better year last year with the New York Metro play and then JMP and DH Capital. And so we focused on integrating. We feel really good about where those are. And so nothing big likely before the end of the year, even just in terms of the fee-based deals that we do. So I think we have the wherewithal to go out and build the ratio a bit further plus get in the market and buy back some stock.

然後我會說收購，今年到目前為止我們真的只進行了非常小的收購。我們真的 100% 專注於確保我們整合了我們去年所做的那些，去年我們在紐約地鐵的比賽中表現得更好，然後是 JMP 和 DH Capital。所以我們專注於整合。我們對它們的位置感覺非常好。因此，在今年年底之前沒有什麼大不了的，即使就我們所做的收費交易而言也是如此。所以我認為我們有足夠的資金去進一步建立這個比率，再加上進入市場並回購一些股票。

Your next question will come from Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題將來自 Ken Usdin 和 Jefferies。

I know we're getting over an hour. So just a quick one, follow-up on Gerard's question. So how through the hedging program do you feel like you are at this point that given what you show us on that grid slide 23. Have you kind of done what you need to do, if not, how much more about you think you need to still add to get that asset sensitivity to the position you really wanted to live in.

我知道我們還有一個多小時。因此，請快速跟進 Gerard 的問題。那麼，考慮到您在表格幻燈片 23 上向我們展示的內容，您如何通過對沖計劃感覺自己處於這一點。您是否已經完成了您需要做的事情，如果沒有，您認為您還需要做多少？仍然增加對您真正想要居住的位置的資產敏感性。

Yes. I mean I think this will -- there are many things we consider when we work through this. We think about the evolution of the balance sheet where we think rates are going to go, et cetera. But if you look at 3.3%, most of that's on the short end, if you were to say, okay, we know that the Fed's not going to raise rates anymore and you wanted to take that down to neutral, that would mean about $10 billion or $15 billion of additional hedging that would be necessary. And so -- but we're going to be careful and methodical about that and update our balance sheet outlook, update our asset sensitivity, but there's still a significant amount of hedging left to do before we would say that we're done with this cycle.

是的。我的意思是，我認為這會——當我們解決這個問題時，我們會考慮很多事情。我們考慮資產負債表的演變，我們認為利率將走向何方，等等。但如果你看一下 3.3%，其中大部分是短期利率，如果你說，好吧，我們知道美聯儲不會再加息，你想把它降到中性，這意味著大約 10 美元十億或 150 億美元的額外對沖是必要的。所以——但我們將對此保持謹慎和有條不紊，並更新我們的資產負債表前景，更新我們的資產敏感度，但在我們說我們已經完成了這件事之前，還有大量的對沖工作要做循環。

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. So John, that point you made in the deck about 4Q '24 NIM floor of 3.25% in a down 200. If the Fed does hang high, do you have an idea of what that NIM looks like in a down 100 scenario?

好的。然後只是快速跟進。所以約翰，你在甲板上提出的關於 24 年第四季度淨息差下限為 3.25% 下跌 200 的觀點。如果美聯儲確實掛得很高，你知道淨息差在下跌 100 的情況下是什麼樣子嗎？

Yes. I mean, it's somewhere between the 2, right? I mean I think it's somewhere between the 2. I mean I'd say that, that would be a better outcome for us. And you could expect that, that will be somewhere between the 3.25% and 3.50% bookends that we gave.

是的。我的意思是，它介於兩者之間，對吧？我的意思是我認為它介於 2 之間。我的意思是我會這麼說，這對我們來說會是一個更好的結果。您可以預期，這將介於我們提供的 3.25% 和 3.50% 的書擋之間。

Your next question will come from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

您的下一個問題將來自 John Pancari 與 Evercore 的對話。

On the capital markets side of the business, I know you indicated you expect a seasonal increase in the fourth quarter. Could you help us size that up, how do you think about the magnitude there based upon your pipeline?

在業務的資本市場方面，我知道您表示您預計第四季度會出現季節性增長。你能幫我們確定一下嗎，你如何看待基於你的管道的規模？

John, we had a little trouble hearing.

約翰，我們聽得有點困難。

So John, we've got pipelines bigger than we've ever had on our capital markets side. I think it's important to kind of realize that the place we play is middle market and capital markets. So the most troubled spots to generate revenue in capital markets is these very large M&A deals, which require very large financing. And those are what we are struggling with the market. So we were really pleased that we were able to hold cap markets kind of flat quarter-on-quarter, given all the volatility in the market. And we think most of the action is going to come in M&A. We've got a very big M&A pipeline, a lot of which does not require financing. And it looks like it's moving along quite nicely. So it's not going to double, but we think it could go up $10 million, $20 million in the fourth quarter. But we just have to see, as we go through the quarter, how much volatility and what the backdrop is.

所以約翰，我們在資本市場方面擁有的管道比以往任何時候都大。我認為重要的是要意識到我們所玩的地方是中間市場和資本市場。所以資本市場最難創收的地方就是這些非常大的併購交易，需要非常大的融資。而這些正是我們在市場上苦苦掙扎的。因此，考慮到市場的所有波動性，我們非常高興我們能夠使市值持平。我們認為大部分行動將發生在併購中。我們有一個非常大的併購渠道，其中很多不需要融資。看起來它的進展非常順利。所以它不會翻倍，但我們認為它可能會在第四季度增加 1000 萬美元，2000 萬美元。但我們只需要在整個季度中看到有多少波動性以及背景是什麼。

But we're assuming pretty big discounts to the pipeline in terms of what we're forecasting right now. So we're pretty comfortable that we're going to have a good quarter. And then we do think we'll get a -- we'll do a little better now that the currency and interest rate volatility has calmed down a little bit, that hurt us in the third quarter because people weren't really willing to step into the market and hedge. We think we'll do a little bit better on the market business also in the fourth quarter.

但就我們現在的預測而言，我們假設管道會有相當大的折扣。所以我們很高興我們將有一個很好的季度。然後我們確實認為我們會得到一個 - 我們會做得更好，因為貨幣和利率波動已經平靜了一點，這在第三季度傷害了我們，因為人們並不真的願意採取行動進入市場和對沖。我們認為我們在第四季度也會在市場業務上做得更好。

Yes. And I would just add, so we don't get carried away with Don's sanguine outlook on commercial fees in Q4. When we look at our total fees at top of the house. We'll probably still see a little leakage on mortgage production. The good news here is that servicing is held up very strong, and so our diversification has paid and lend stability to mortgage, but there's probably a slight additional step to take in Q4. And then we did make some changes in our policies regarding overdrafts where we've done away with NSF fees. And so that would clip the service charges line a little bit. So you probably see some strength in commercial offset a bit with a little fall in the consumer side. But overall, we're guiding to the net of that should still be stable to up modestly. And we'll just have to see how much of the capital markets pipeline, as Don said, actually gets printed.

是的。我只想補充一點，所以我們不會對 Don 對第四季度商業費用的樂觀前景感到厭煩。當我們查看房屋頂部的總費用時。我們可能仍會看到抵押貸款生產的一些洩漏。這裡的好消息是服務非常強勁，因此我們的多元化已經支付並為抵押貸款提供了穩定性，但在第四季度可能需要採取一些額外的步驟。然後，我們確實對我們取消 NSF 費用的透支政策進行了一些更改。所以這會稍微削減服務費線。因此，您可能會看到商業抵消方面的一些優勢，而消費者方面則略有下降。但總體而言，我們正在引導該網絡應該仍然穩定到適度上升。正如唐所說，我們只需要看看有多少資本市場管道實際上被打印出來。

Okay. Hopefully, you can hear me a little bit better. One last question. Have you sized up the size of the Shared National Credit portfolio? And then also what percentage of that portfolio are you in the lead position.

好的。希望你能聽到我的聲音好一點。最後一個問題。您是否調整了共享國家信用投資組合的規模？然後還有你在該投資組合中處於領先地位的百分比。

Yes. I think the Shared National Credit portfolio is a pretty decent size as we've moved up market. But I'd point out a couple of things there is the kind of when you're in Shared National Credits in general, those are bigger companies that have multi-bank facilities and they tend to be better credits. The second thing is that we continue to migrate towards trying to aim for the left lead position in those Shared National Credits and/or be one of the book runners or admin agents, so become a meaningful bank to those overall customers. And so that's just been part of our strategy and we're making good traction on that strategy. I think a lot of times, investors will think that the Shared National Credits is a particular point of risk.

是的。我認為，隨著我們向上移動市場，共享國家信貸投資組合的規模相當不錯。但我要指出一些事情，一般來說，當你在共享國家信用中時，那些是擁有多銀行設施的大公司，它們往往是更好的信用。第二件事是，我們將繼續努力爭取在這些共享國家信用中佔據領先地位和/或成為賬簿管理人或行政代理人之一，因此成為對這些整體客戶有意義的銀行。所以這只是我們戰略的一部分，我們正在對該戰略產生良好的影響。我想很多時候，投資者會認為共享國家信用是一個特殊的風險點。

Our view is that actually -- that's just part of the strategy, and those are actually good credits. And if you're get to be in the driver's seat of leading the deals, then that's the place you want to be.

我們的觀點是，實際上——這只是戰略的一部分，而這些實際上是很好的功勞。如果你能成為領導交易的主導者，那麼這就是你想去的地方。

I think that's right. And it's all about return against asset against deployment. So underlying the BSO strategy on the commercial side that we talked about in the quarters, we're exiting $1 billion to $2 billion a quarter of under returning assets. A lot of those are Shared National Credits, which just haven't panned out once we've been a relationship for a couple of years. So that portfolio churns quite aggressively also. And our ability to monetize through the product capabilities that we've built over the last 5 years is significantly different than it was 5 years ago, we just got many, many more opportunities to engage and become that lead bank with those clients.

我認為這是對的。這都是關於資產回報與部署的關係。因此，在我們在這些季度談到的商業方面的 BSO 戰略的基礎上，我們每季度退出 10 億至 20 億美元的回報不足的資產。其中很多是共享的國家信用，一旦我們建立了幾年的關係，就沒有成功。因此，該投資組合也非常激進。而且，我們通過過去 5 年建立的產品功能獲利的能力與 5 年前有很大不同，我們剛剛獲得了更多、更多的機會與這些客戶互動並成為牽頭銀行。

I think that's the end of the queue on the question. So really appreciate everybody's interest and support. Have a great day.

我認為這是問題隊列的結尾。所以真的很感謝大家的關心和支持。祝你有美好的一天。

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。