Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Citizens Financial Group Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Greg, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded.

大家早安，歡迎參加公民金融集團 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫格雷格，今天我將擔任您的接線生。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，正在記錄此事件。

Now I'll turn the call over to Kristin Silberberg, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations. Kristin, you may begin.

現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係執行副總裁 Kristin Silberberg。克里斯汀，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Greg. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, this morning, our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and CFO, John Woods, will provide an overview of our third quarter results. Brendan Coughlin, Head of Consumer Banking; and Don McCree, Head of Commercial Banking, are also here to provide additional color.

謝謝你，格雷格。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。首先，今天上午，我們的董事長兼執行長 Bruce Van Saun；財務長約翰伍茲 (John Woods) 將概述我們第三季的業績。 Brendan Coughlin，消費者銀行業務主管；商業銀行業務主管唐·麥克雷 (Don McCree) 也在這裡提供了更多資訊。

We will be referencing our third quarter earnings presentation located on our Investor Relations website. After the presentation, we will be happy to take questions. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. These are outlined for your review on Page 2 of the presentation. We also reference non-GAAP financial measures, so it's important to review our GAAP results on Page 3 of the presentation and the reconciliations in the appendix.

我們將參考投資者關係網站上的第三季財報。演示結束後，我們將很樂意回答問題。我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期有重大差異。這些內容在簡報的第 2 頁上進行了概述，供您查看。我們也參考了非 GAAP 財務指標，因此請務必查看簡報第 3 頁上的 GAAP 結果以及附錄中的調整表。

And with that, I will hand over to Bruce.

就這樣，我將把工作交給布魯斯。

Thanks, Kristin, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call today.

謝謝克里斯汀，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

We continue to execute well through a challenging environment. Our focus has been on playing strong defense and maintaining a strong balance sheet. During the quarter, we grew our CET1 ratio to 10.4% near the top of peers, while still buying in $250 million in stock with noncore loan runoff of $1.4 billion and deposit growth of $500 million in the quarter, we lowered our spot loan-to-deposit ratio to 84% at quarter end. We focused on building up our liquidity even further, given geopolitical uncertainty and the regulatory direction of travel adding almost $4 billion to cash and securities. We also built our ACL further to 1.55%, well above our pro forma day 1 CECL reserve of 1.3% with our general office reserve now at 9.5%.

我們在充滿挑戰的環境中繼續保持良好的執行力。我們的重點是加強防守並保持強勁的資產負債表。本季度，我們的 CET1 比率提高至 10.4%，接近同行最高水平，同時仍購買 2.5 億美元的股票，本季度非核心貸款徑流為 14 億美元，存款增長為 5 億美元，我們降低了現貨貸款-季度末存款比率達84%。鑑於地緣政治的不確定性和旅行監管方向增加了近 40 億美元的現金和證券，我們專注於進一步增強流動性。我們也將 ACL 進一步提高至 1.55%，遠高於預計第一天 CECL 儲備金 1.3%，而我們的綜合辦公室儲備金目前為 9.5%。

While the balance sheet has been a principal focus, we continue to execute well on our strategic initiatives, which should drive strong medium-term performance. Our Private Bank is being built out. We had a soft launch during the back half of Q3, and we brought in around $500 million in deposits and investments. Full launch is scheduled over the next several weeks. We're executing well on our New York City metro push, our deposit strategies, our top programs, our ESG initiatives and our payment strategy.

雖然資產負債表一直是我們的主要關注點，但我們繼續良好地執行我們的策略舉措，這應該會推動強勁的中期業績。我們的私人銀行正在建設中。我們在第三季後半段進行了試運行，並帶來了約 5 億美元的存款和投資。計劃在未來幾週內全面啟動。我們在紐約市地鐵推廣、存款策略、頂級計劃、ESG 舉措和支付策略方面執行良好。

Our underlying EPS for the quarter missed the mark slightly at $0.89 as several Capital Markets deals slipped from Q3 to Q4, given late quarter market volatility. This was the weakest Capital Markets quarter since the third quarter of 2020, 3 years ago and prior to several acquisitions like JMP and DH Capital. The good news here is that the pipelines remain strong, and we continue to maintain and grow our market share. NII expenses and credit costs all track to expectations.

由於季末市場波動，幾項資本市場交易從第三季度下滑到第四季度，我們本季的基本每股盈餘略低於 0.89 美元的水平。這是自 3 年前、JMP 和 DH Capital 等幾項收購之前的 2020 年第三季以來資本市場最疲軟的季度。好消息是管道仍然強勁，我們繼續保持和擴大我們的市場份額。國家資訊基礎設施支出和信貸成本均符合預期。

We included what we hope is an informative and useful slide in the deck, Page 5, which breaks out results for our legacy core business, our Private Bank start-up investment and the drag from noncore. Note the legacy core performance shows Q3 EPS of $1.08, NIM of 3.33% and ROTCE of 15.3%. The Private Bank should turn positive by mid-'24 and be nicely accretive in 2025, and noncore will dramatically run down over the next several quarters. This dynamic will help offset the drag from forward starting swaps and helped propel results higher over time.

我們在第 5 頁中添加了一張內容豐富且有用的幻燈片，其中詳細列出了我們的傳統核心業務、私人銀行新創投資以及非核心業務的拖累的結果。請注意，傳統核心效能顯示第三季 EPS 為 1.08 美元，NIM 為 3.33%，ROTCE 為 15.3%。私人銀行業務應該會在 24 年中期轉為正數，並在 2025 年實現良好的成長，而非核心業務將在未來幾季大幅下降。這種動態將有助於抵消遠期啟動掉期帶來的阻力，並隨著時間的推移幫助推動業績走高。

Given the continued macro uncertainty and pressure on revenue from higher rates, we've initiated a zero-based review of expenses in an effort to keep expenses flat in 2024. We'll report further on this on our January call when we give 2024 guidance.

鑑於持續的宏觀不確定性以及較高利率給收入帶來的壓力，我們啟動了對費用的零基審查，以努力在2024 年保持費用持平。我們將在1 月份的電話會議上給出2024 年指導時進一步報告這一點。

For Q4, we expect to see key trends begin to stabilize. NII will decline, but by less than in the past 2 quarters. Fees should bounce back somewhat, though the extent is market dependent. Expenses and credit costs should be stable, and we should buy in a modest amount of stock given continued solid earnings and loan runoff.

對於第四季度，我們預計主要趨勢將開始穩定。 NII 將下降，但下降幅度小於過去兩季。費用應該會反彈，但幅度取決於市場。費用和信貸成本應該穩定，鑑於持續穩健的利潤和貸款徑流，我們應該購買適量的股票。

This has clearly been a challenging year for regional banks like Citizens. Rest assured, we are working hard. We're navigating the current turbulence well, and we're taking the actions to position us well for the medium term.

對於像公民這樣的地區性銀行來說，今年顯然是充滿挑戰的一年。請放心，我們正在努力。我們正在很好地應對當前的動盪，並且正在採取行動，使我們在中期處於有利地位。

And with that, let me turn it over to John to take you through more of the financial details. John?

接下來，讓我將其交給約翰，讓他帶您了解更多財務細節。約翰？

Thanks, Bruce, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the headlines for the third quarter, referencing Slides 5 and 6. For the third quarter, we generated underlying net income of $448 million and EPS of $0.89, this includes the Private Bank start-up investment of $0.05 and a negative $0.14 impact from the noncore portfolio. Our underlying ROTCE for the quarter was 12.5%. On Slide 5, you'll see that we provided a schedule separating out our noncore runoff portfolio and the start-up investment in our new Private Bank from our legacy core results, so you can see how those impact our performance.

謝謝布魯斯，大家早安。讓我從第三季度的頭條新聞開始，參考幻燈片5 和6。第三季度，我們的基本淨利潤為4.48 億美元，每股收益為0.89 美元，其中包括0.05 美元的私人銀行啟動投資和0.14美元的負數非核心投資組合的影響。我們本季的基本 ROTCE 為 12.5%。在投影片5 上，您會看到我們提供了一個時間表，將我們的非核心徑流投資組合和新私人銀行的啟動投資與我們的傳統核心績效分開，這樣您就可以看到它們如何影響我們的業績。

Our legacy core bank delivered a solid underwriting ROTCE of 15.3%. Currently, the Private Bank startup investment is a drag to results, but relatively quickly, this will become increasingly accretive, 5% EPS benefit in 2025. Similarly, while noncore is currently a sizable drag to revenues, it will run off quickly, further bolstering our overall performance and partially mitigating the expected impact of forward starting swaps.

我們的傳統核心銀行提供了 15.3% 的穩健承保 ROTCE。目前，私人銀行新創公司投資對業績造成拖累，但相對較快地，這將變得越來越增值，到2025 年每股收益將增加5%。同樣，雖然非核心業務目前對收入造成相當大的拖累，但它將迅速流失，進一步提振我們的整體表現並部分減輕了遠期啟動掉期的預期影響。

Back to Slide 6. Total net interest income was down 4% linked quarter, and our margin was 3.03%, down 14 basis points, both in line with expectations. Deposits were up slightly in the quarter, reflecting the ongoing resilience of the franchise. We continued our balance sheet optimization efforts, further strengthening liquidity during the quarter given the uncertain geopolitical environment and in preparation for potential changes to liquidity regulations, increasing cash and securities by about $4 billion.

回到投影片 6。淨利息收入總額較上月下降 4%，利潤率為 3.03%，下降 14 個基點，均符合預期。本季存款略有增加，反映了該特許經營業務的持續彈性。我們繼續優化資產負債表，鑑於地緣政治環境的不確定性，本季進一步加強流動性，並為流動性法規的潛在變化做好準備，增加了約 40 億美元的現金和證券。

In addition, the noncore portfolio declined by $1.4 billion, ending the quarter at $12.3 billion. While we [need] clarity on new liquidity rules for Category 4 banks, it is worth pointing out that we currently exceed the current LCR requirements for both Category 1 and 3 banks. Our period-end LDR improved to 84%, while our credit metrics remained solid with net charge-offs of 40 basis points, stable linked quarter.

此外，非核心投資組合下降了 14 億美元，本季末為 123 億美元。雖然我們需要明確 4 類銀行的新流動性規則，但值得指出的是，我們目前超出了 1 類和 3 類銀行目前的 LCR 要求。我們的期末貸存比改善至 84%，而我們的信貸指標保持穩健，淨沖銷為 40 個基點，環比穩定。

We recorded a provision for credit losses of $172 million and a reserve build of $19 million this quarter, increasing our ACL coverage to 1.55%, up from 1.52% at the end of the second quarter with the increase primarily directed to raising the General Office portfolio reserves from 8% in 2Q to 9.5% at the end of 3Q.

本季我們記錄了1.72 億美元的信貸損失準備金和1,900 萬美元的儲備金建設，將我們的ACL 覆蓋率從第二季末的1.52% 提高到1.55%，增加的主要目的是提高綜合辦公室投資組合準備率從第二季的8%上升到第三季末的9.5%。

We repurchased $250 million of common shares in the third quarter and delivered a strong CET1 ratio of 10.4%, up from 10.3% in the second quarter. And our tangible book value per share decreased 3% linked quarter, reflecting AOCI impacts associated with higher rates.

我們在第三季回購了 2.5 億美元的普通股，並實現了 10.4% 的強勁 CET1 比率，高於第二季的 10.3%。我們的每股有形帳面價值環比下降了 3%，反映了與較高利率相關的 AOCI 影響。

Turning to Slide 7 on net interest income. Linked-quarter results were down 4% as expected, primarily reflecting a lower net interest margin, which was down 14 basis points to 3.03%. As you can see from the walk at the bottom of the slide, the decrease in margin was driven by deposit repricing, which includes mix shift from lower cost to higher interest-bearing categories, noninterest-bearing deposit migration as well as the mix impact of the liquidity build I mentioned earlier. These factors were mitigated by positive impacts from asset repricing and rundown of the noncore portfolio.

轉向關於淨利息收入的幻燈片 7。相關季度業績如預期下降 4%，主要反映淨利差下降，淨利差下降 14 個基點至 3.03%。從幻燈片底部的走勢可以看出，保證金的下降是由存款重新定價驅動的，其中包括從較低成本到較高計息類別的組合轉變、無息存款遷移以及存款重新定價的混合影響。我之前提到的流動性建設。資產重新定價和非核心投資組合縮減的正面影響緩解了這些因素。

Our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta is 48% through 3Q and which has been rising in response to the rate cycle and competitive environment. Our deposit franchise has performed well with deposit betas generally in the back of peers. This is a significant improvement compared to prior cycles when our beta experience was at the higher end of peers. Our sensitivity to rising rates at the end of the third quarter is roughly neutral, down slightly versus the prior quarter.

截至第三季度，我們的累積計息存款貝塔值為 48%，並且隨著利率週期和競爭環境的變化而不斷上升。我們的存款業務表現良好，存款貝塔值普遍落後於同業。與之前的周期相比，這是一個顯著的進步，當時我們的測試體驗處於同行的高端。我們對第三季末利率上升的敏感度大致為中性，與上一季相比略有下降。

Moving to Slide 8. Fees were down 3% linked quarter, driven primarily by lower Capital Markets and card fees, partly offset by the increase in mortgage banking fees. The Capital Markets fees outlook was positive early in September, but with market volatility and higher long rates picking up to the end of the month, we saw a number of M&A deals pushed into the fourth quarter, resulting in lower linked quarter M&A advisory fees as well as lower bond underwriting.

轉向幻燈片 8。費用環比下降 3%，主要是由於資本市場和信用卡費用下降，但部分被抵押貸款銀行費用的增加所抵消。 9月初，資本市場費用前景樂觀，但隨著市場波動和長期利率上升到月底，我們看到許多併購交易被推遲到第四季度，導致關聯季度併購諮詢費用下降以及較低的債券承銷。

While we continue to see good strength in our deal pipeline, uncertainty continues around the timing of these deals closing given the level of market volatility. Card fees were slightly lower, reflecting lower balance transfer fees. The increase in mortgage banking fees was driven by higher MSR valuation, the servicing P&L provides a diversifying benefit, which in the quarter more than offset the decline in production as higher mortgage rates weighed on [lock] volumes.

雖然我們繼續看到我們的交易管道強勁，但鑑於市場波動程度，這些交易完成時間的不確定性仍然存在。卡費略有下降，反映餘額轉帳費用較低。抵押貸款銀行費用的增加是由較高的MSR 估值推動的，服務損益提供了多元化的收益，這在本季度抵消了由於較高的抵押貸款利率打壓[鎖定]交易量而導致的產量下降。

On Slide 9, we did well on expenses, keeping them broadly stable linked quarter, excluding the $35 million Private Bank start-up investment.

在投影片 9 上，我們在支出方面表現出色，保持了季度的大致穩定（不包括 3500 萬美元的私人銀行啟動投資）。

On Slide 10, average loans are down 2% and period-end loans are down 1% linked quarter. The noncore portfolio runoff of $1.4 billion drove the overall decline, partly offset by some modest core growth in mortgage and home equity. Average core loans are down 1%, largely driven by generally lower loan demand in commercial, along with exits of lower returning relationships and our highly selective approach to new lending in this environment. Period-end core loans are stable. Average commercial line utilization was down slightly this quarter as clients look to deleverage given the environment in higher rates. We saw less M&A financing activity in the face of an uncertain economic environment.

在投影片 10 中，平均貸款下降 2%，期末貸款較上季下降 1%。 14 億美元的非核心投資組合徑流推動了整體下降，但部分被抵押貸款和房屋淨值的核心增長小幅抵消。平均核心貸款下降了 1%，主要是由於商業貸款需求普遍下降、回報率較低的關係的退出以及我們在這種環境下對新貸款的高度選擇性方法所致。期末核心貸款穩定。本季平均商業線路利用率略有下降，因為在利率較高的環境下，客戶希望去槓桿化。面對不確定的經濟環境，我們看到併購融資活動減少。

Next, to Slide 11 and 12. We continue to do well on deposits. Period-end deposits were up $530 million linked quarter, with growth led by commercial and consumer deposits broadly stable. Our interest-bearing deposit costs were up 39 basis points, which translates to a 48% cumulative beta. Our deposit franchise is highly diversified across product mix and channels, and with 67% of our deposits in consumer and about 70% insurers secured. This has allowed us to efficiently and cost effectively manage our deposits in this rising rate environment.

接下來是投影片 11 和 12。我們在存款方面繼續表現良好。期末存款季增 5.3 億美元，商業和消費者存款帶動成長整體穩定。我們的計息存款成本上升了 39 個基點，相當於 48% 的累積貝塔係數。我們的存款業務在產品組合和通路方面高度多元化，67% 的存款來自消費者，約 70% 的存款來自保險公司。這使我們能夠在利率不斷上升的環境下有效且具成本效益地管理我們的存款。

As rates rose in the third quarter, we saw continued migration of lower-cost deposits to higher-yielding categories with noninterest-bearing now representing about 22% of total deposits. This is back to pre-pandemic levels, and we would expect the decline to moderate from here, although this will be dependent upon the path of rates and consumer behavior.

隨著第三季利率上升，我們看到成本較低的存款繼續向收益較高的類別遷移，無息存款目前約佔總存款的 22%。這又回到了疫情前的水平，我們預計下降幅度將從此放緩，儘管這將取決於利率和消費者行為的走勢。

Moving to credit on Slide 13. Net charge-offs were 40 basis points stable linked quarter with a decrease in commercial, offset by a slight increase in retail driven by auto, which normalized following a very low second quarter result. Non-accrual loans increased 9% linked quarter to 87 basis points of total loans, reflecting an increase in General Office. We feel the rate of increase in nonaccruals is decelerating after a jump in Q2.

轉到幻燈片 13 上的信貸。淨沖銷為 40 個基點，與季度掛鉤，商業業務下降，但被汽車驅動的零售業小幅增長所抵消，零售業在第二季度業績非常低後恢復正常。非應計貸款較上季成長 9%，佔總貸款的 87 個基點，反映了辦公廳的成長。我們認為，非應計費用的成長率在第二季大幅成長後正在放緩。

Turning to the allowance for credit loss on Slide 14. Our overall coverage ratio stands at 1.55%, which is a 3-basis-point increase in the second quarter, which reflects a reserve build of $19 million as well as the denominator effect from the rundown of the noncore portfolio. We increased our General Office coverage to 9.5% from 8% in the second quarter.

轉向幻燈片 14 上的信貸損失準備金。我們的總體覆蓋率為 1.55%，比第二季度增加了 3 個基點，這反映了 1,900 萬美元的準備金建設以及非核心投資組合的概要。我們將辦公大樓覆蓋率從第二季的 8% 提高到 9.5%。

You can see some of the key assumptions driving the General Office reserve coverage level, which we feel represent a fairly adverse scenario that is much worse than we've seen in historical downturns. As mentioned, we built our reserve for the General Office portfolio to $354 million this quarter, which represents coverage of 9.5% against the $3.7 billion portfolio. We have already $100 million in charge-offs in this portfolio, which is about 2.5% of loans.

您可以看到推動辦公廳準備金覆蓋水準的一些關鍵假設，我們認為這代表了一種相當不利的情況，比我們在歷史低迷時期看到的情況要糟糕得多。如前所述，本季我們將辦公廳投資組合的儲備金增至 3.54 億美元，相當於 37 億美元投資組合的覆蓋率 9.5%。我們已經在這個投資組合中沖銷了 1 億美元，約佔貸款的 2.5%。

In setting the General Office reserve, we are factoring in a very severe peak-to-trough decline in office values of about 68%, with the remaining 18% to 20% default rate and a loss severity of about 50%. So we feel the current coverage of 9.5% is very strong. It's worth noting that the financial impact of further deterioration beyond our outlook would be manageable given our strong reserve and capital position.

在設定辦公大樓儲備金時，我們考慮到辦公大樓價值從高峰到低谷的嚴重下降，約為 68%，其餘的違約率為 18% 至 20%，損失嚴重程度約為 50%。所以我們覺得目前9.5%的覆蓋率非常強。值得注意的是，鑑於我們強勁的儲備和資本狀況，超出我們預期的進一步惡化的財務影響將是可控的。

We have a very experienced CRE team who are focused on managing the portfolio on a loan-by-loan basis and engaging in ongoing discussions with sponsors to work through the property and borrower-specific elements to derisk the portfolio and ultimately minimize losses. I should also note that about 99.2% of CRE General Office is in current pay status.

我們擁有一支經驗豐富的CRE 團隊，專注於逐筆貸款地管理投資組合，並與贊助商進行持續討論，以解決財產和借款人的特定要素，以降低投資組合的風險，並最終最大限度地減少損失。我還應該指出，華創辦公室大約99.2%的人處於目前的薪資狀態。

Moving to Slide 15. We have maintained excellent balance sheet strength. Our CET1 ratio increased to 10.4% as we look to grow capital given the dynamic macro environment and new capital rules proposed by the bank regulators. We returned a total of $450 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We plan to maintain strong and growing capital and liquidity to levels that fortify our balance sheet against macro uncertainties and position us to quickly transition to any new regulatory rules that may impact banks of our size.

轉到投影片 15。我們保持了出色的資產負債表實力。鑑於動態的宏觀環境和銀行監管機構提出的新資本規則，我們希望增加資本，因此我們的 CET1 比率增加至 10.4%。我們透過股利和股票回購總共向股東返還了 4.5 億美元。我們計劃保持強勁且不斷增長的資本和流動性，以增強我們的資產負債表應對宏觀不確定性的水平，並使我們能夠迅速過渡到任何可能影響我們規模銀行的新監管規則。

Turning to Slide 16 and 17. I'll update you on a few of our key initiatives we have underway across the bank, so that we can deliver growth and strong returns for our shareholders. First, on Slide 16, we've included just a few of the business initiatives we are pursuing to drive improving performance over the medium term. On the commercial side, we highlight how we are positioned to support the significant growth in Private Capital. Although deal activity has been relatively muted recently, many sponsors have meaningful amounts of capital to deploy. So there is a tremendous amount of pent-up demand for M&A and Capital Markets activity given the right market conditions.

轉向投影片 16 和 17。我將向您介紹我們在整個銀行範圍內開展的一些關鍵舉措的最新情況，以便我們能夠為股東帶來成長和豐厚的回報。首先，在投影片 16 中，我們只列出了一些我們正在追求的旨在推動中期內績效改善的業務計劃。在商業方面，我們強調我們如何定位以支持私人資本的顯著成長。儘管最近的交易活動相對較少，但許多贊助商都有大量資金可供部署。因此，在適當的市場條件下，併購和資本市場活動有大量被壓抑的需求。

We have been serving the sponsor community with distinctive capabilities for the last 10 years and we've established ourselves at the top of the middle market sponsor league tables. And our new private bankers will significantly expand our sponsor relationships, and we stand ready to leverage our capabilities in this space when sponsor activity picks up. We also think there is a tremendous opportunity in the Payment space, and we've been investing in our Treasury Solutions business developing integrated payments platforms and expanding our client hedging capabilities.

過去 10 年來，我們一直以獨特的能力為贊助商群體提供服務，並已在中端市場贊助商排行榜上名列前茅。我們的新私人銀行家將顯著擴大我們的贊助商關係，當贊助商活動增加時，我們隨時準備好利用我們在這一領域的能力。我們也認為支付領域存在巨大的機會，我們一直在投資我們的資金解決方案業務，開發整合支付平台並擴大我們的客戶對沖能力。

On the consumer side, our entry into New York metro is going very well with some early success attracting new customers to the bank and growing deposits about 9x faster than in our legacy branches, as we leverage our full customer service capabilities to drive some of the highest customer acquisition and sales rates in our network.

在消費者方面，我們進入紐約地鐵的進展非常順利，早期取得了一些成功，吸引了新客戶到銀行，存款增長速度比我們的傳統分行快約9 倍，因為我們利用我們全面的客戶服務能力來推動一些業務的發展。我們網路中最高的客戶獲取率和銷售率。

The build-out of the Private Bank is also going very well. These bankers have hit the ground running and have already brought in around $500 million in deposits and investment balances through a soft launch in the back half of Q3. This is a coast-to-coast team with a presence in some of our key markets like New York, Boston and places where we'd like to do more like Florida and California. We plan to open a few private banking centers in these geographies and build appropriate scale in our wealth business with our Clarfeld legacy wealth business as the centerpiece of that effort.

私人銀行的建設也進展順利。這些銀行家已經開始行動，並透過第三季後半段的軟啟動，已經帶來了約 5 億美元的存款和投資餘額。這是一支橫跨東西海岸的團隊，在我們的一些主要市場（如紐約、波士頓）以及我們希望開展更多業務的地方（如佛羅裡達和加利福尼亞）開展業務。我們計劃在這些地區開設一些私人銀行中心，並以我們的克拉菲爾德遺產財富業務作為這項努力的核心，在我們的財富業務中建立適當的規模。

Turning to Slide 17 on the top left side is our balance sheet optimization program, which is progressing well. The chart illustrates the relatively rapid rundown of the noncore portfolio, which is comprised of our $9 billion shorter-duration indirect auto portfolio and purchased consumer loans. This portfolio is expected to decline by about $7.6 billion from where we are now to about $4.7 billion at the end of 2025. And as this runs down, we plan to redeploy the majority of cash paydowns to building core bank liquidity with the remainder used to support organic relationship-based loan growth in the core portfolio. The capital recaptured through reduction in noncore RWA will be reallocated to support the growth of the Private Bank.

前往左上角的幻燈片 17 是我們的資產負債表優化計劃，該計劃進展順利。該圖顯示了非核心投資組合相對較快的縮減，該投資組合由我們 90 億美元的短期間接汽車投資組合和購買的消費貸款組成。該投資組合預計將從現在的水平減少約76 億美元，到2025 年底降至約47 億美元。隨著資金的減少，我們計劃將大部分現金支付重新部署到建立核心銀行流動性，其餘的用於支持核心投資組合中基於關係的有機貸款成長。透過減少非核心 RWA 收回的資本將被重新分配，以支持私人銀行的成長。

In summary, this strategy strengthens liquidity has already been a source of about $3 billion of term funding ABS issuance for this year. It builds capital by reducing RWAs and it's accretive to NIM, EPS and ROTCE.

總之，這項增強流動性的策略已成為今年 ABS 發行約 30 億美元定期資金的來源。它透過減少 RWA 來累積資本，並增加 NIM、EPS 和 ROTCE。

Next to our TOP program on the right side of the slide. Our latest program is well underway and on target to deliver a $115 million pretax run rate benefit by year-end. Our TOP programs are essential to improving returns over the medium term and we are ready to launch on TOP 9, looking for efficiency opportunities driven by further automation and the use of AI to better serve our customers. We are looking at ways to simplify our organization and save more in third-party spend as well. In light of pressure on revenue given the rate environment, we are targeting to keep 2024 underlying expenses flat.

在幻燈片右側我們的 TOP 程式旁邊。我們的最新計劃正在順利進行，目標是到年底實現 1.15 億美元的稅前運行率效益。我們的 TOP 計畫對於提高中期回報至關重要，我們已準備好推出 TOP 9，尋找由進一步自動化和人工智慧使用驅動的效率機會，以更好地為我們的客戶服務。我們正在尋找簡化組織並節省更多第三方支出的方法。鑑於利率環境對收入的壓力，我們的目標是保持 2024 年基本支出持平。

On the technology front, we have a very extensive agenda with a multiyear next-gen tech cloud migration, targeting the exit of all of our data centers by 2025 and the program to converge our core deposit system onto a cloud-based modern banking platform. We've come a long way in modernizing our platform since the IPO.

在技​​術方面，我們有一個非常廣泛的議程，包括多年的下一代技術雲端遷移，目標是到2025 年退出我們所有的資料中心，以及將我們的核心存款系統整合到基於雲端的現代銀行平台的計劃。自首次公開募股以來，我們在平台現代化方面取得了長足進步。

And on the ESG front, we recently announced a $50 billion sustainable finance target, which we plan to achieve by 2030 and commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2035. And we are working diligently to help our clients prepare for and finance their own transitions to a lower carbon economy.

在ESG 方面，我們最近宣布了500 億美元的可持續金融目標，計劃在2030 年實現該目標，並承諾在2035 年實現碳中和。我們正在努力幫助我們的客戶為向永續發展目標的轉型做好準備並為其提供資金。低碳經濟。

Moving to the outlook for the fourth quarter on Slide 18. Our outlook incorporates the private bank and assumes that the Federal rate steady through the end of the year. We expect NII to be down approximately 2% next quarter, given the impact from noninterest-bearing and low-cost deposits migrating to higher cost categories, albeit at a decelerating rate more than offsetting the benefit of higher asset yields, noncore runoff and day count.

轉到幻燈片 18 上的第四季度展望。我們的展望涵蓋了私人銀行，並假設聯邦利率在年底前保持穩定。考慮到無息和低成本存款遷移到成本較高類別的影響，我們預計下季NII將下降約2%，儘管成長放緩足以抵消資產收益率上升、非核心徑流和天數增加的好處。

Based on the forward curve, we expect the cumulative deposit beta at the end of 2023 to be approximately 50% and to rise to a terminal level of low 50s percent before the first rate cut. Noninterest income is expected to be up 3% to 4% with a seasonal pickup in Capital Markets depending on the market environment. Noninterest expense should be broadly stable, which includes the Private Bank and excludes the anticipated FDIC special assessment. Net charge-offs are expected to rise to approximately mid-40s basis points as we continue to work through the General Office portfolio and expected further normalization. We feel good about our reserve coverage around the current level and the ACL level will continue to benefit from loan runoff.

根據遠期曲線，我們預計 2023 年底的累積存款貝塔值約為 50%，並在首次降息前升至 50% 的最終水平。根據市場環境，隨著資本市場的季節性回升，非利息收入預計將增加 3% 至 4%。非利息支出應大致穩定，其中包括私人銀行，但不包括預期的 FDIC 特別評估。隨著我們繼續推進辦公室投資組合併預計進一步正常化，淨沖銷預計將上升至約 40 個基點左右。我們對目前水準的準備金覆蓋率感到滿意，ACL 水準將繼續受益於貸款徑流。

Our CET1 is expected to increase to approximately 10.5%, with the opportunity to engage in a modest level of share repurchases, the execution of which will depend upon our ongoing assessment of the external environment. Beyond the 4Q '23 guidance, as I mentioned earlier, we are targeting flat 2024 underlying expenses. This includes the Private Bank and the noncore portfolio and excludes the anticipated FDIC special assessment.

我們的 CET1 預計將增加至約 10.5%，並有機會進行適度的股票回購，具體執行情況將取決於我們對外部環境的持續評估。正如我之前提到的，除了 23 年第四季的指導之外，我們的目標是 2024 年基本支出持平。這包括私人銀行和非核心投資組合，但不包括預期的 FDIC 特別評估。

Also, we've included Slide 25 in the appendix on the swaps impact through 2027. We expect higher swap expense in 2024 to be partly offset by the benefit to NII from the noncore rundown. Notably, the swap expense drag will reduce meaningfully over 2025 through 2027 as swaps run off and the Fed normalizes short rates. In addition, the impact of terminated swaps is dramatically lower in '26 and 2027.

此外，我們在附錄中納入了關於 2027 年掉期影響的幻燈片 25。我們預計 2024 年較高的掉期費用將被非核心清單給 NII 帶來的好處所部分抵消。值得注意的是，隨著掉期費用的減少和聯準會短期利率正常化，2025 年至 2027 年掉期費用的拖累將顯著減少。此外，終止掉期的影響在 26 年和 2027 年會大大降低。

To wrap up, we delivered solid results this quarter while navigating through a dynamic environment. Importantly, we made good progress positioning the company with a strong capital, liquidity and funding position, which will serve us well as regulatory requirements are finalized and if the environment becomes more challenging. Our balance sheet strength also positions us to take advantage of opportunities through our strategic priorities as we continue to strengthen the franchise for the future and deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns.

總而言之，我們在本季在動態環境中取得了堅實的成果。重要的是，我們在為公司定位方面取得了良好進展，擁有強大的資本、流動性和融資狀況，這將在監管要求最終確定以及環境變得更具挑戰性時對我們有利。我們的資產負債表實力也使我們能夠透過我們的策略重點來利用機遇，繼續加強未​​來的特許經營權並提供有吸引力的風險調整回報。

With that, I'll hand it back over to Bruce.

這樣，我就把它交還給布魯斯。

Okay. Thank you, John. Greg, why don't we open it up for some Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，約翰。格雷格，我們為什麼不打開它進行一些問答呢？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Erika Najarian from UBS.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 UBS 的 Erika Najarian。

My first question is for John. John, there has been a lot of feedback from investors on uncertainty over the NII trajectory for '24 in the environment of higher for longer. And I think you know where I'm going here. I think that investors are trying to sort of square the $11 billion, $12 billion increase in notional swaps, right? At a received fixed rate of [3.10%] in the second half of next year, and trying to square that in a higher for longer environment with some of the balance sheet optimization. So if you could just sort of take us through a little bit of the moving pieces and perhaps simplify it for the investors listening in terms of how that impacts your NII trough timing, what happens after you hit trough and are you still confident in what you said, I guess, a month ago and that you could exit 4Q '24 with a 3% NIM?

我的第一個問題是問約翰的。約翰，在長期走高的環境下，投資人就 24 年 NII 軌蹟的不確定性提出了許多回饋。我想你知道我要去哪裡。我認為投資者正試圖平衡名目掉期增加的 110 億美元、120 億美元，對嗎？明年下半年的固定利率為[3.10%]，並試圖在長期較高的環境中與一些資產負債表優化相結合。因此，如果您能帶我們了解一些動態部分，也許可以為投資者簡化一下，讓他們了解這如何影響您的 NII 波谷時間、您觸底後會發生什麼以及您對自己的投資是否仍然有信心。我猜是一個月前說的，您可以以3% 的淨利差退出24 年第四季嗎？

Thanks, Erika. Maybe I'll take that a little bit in reverse order because it may help us with the jump off conversation. So we -- net interest margin came in as expected in the third quarter. So we've talked about that at 3.03%. I think that the two big forces that I would talk about broadly as you look out into the fourth quarter, would be our basic ongoing deposit migration and how that is expected to play out.

謝謝，埃里卡。也許我會以相反的順序來討論一下，因為這可能有助於我們開始對話。因此，我們第三季的淨利差符合預期。所以我們已經討論過 3.03%。我認為，當您展望第四季度時，我將廣泛談論的兩大力量將是我們正在進行的基本存款遷移以及預計將如何發揮作用。

So I'd say that if you look at overall net interest margin, I'd say that we're going to see another -- call it, mid-single-digit sort of headwind into the fourth quarter just on the entire balance sheet outside of liquidity build. And so that 3.03% kind of gets to close -- it will comes in right around that 3%. So that's kind of playing out the way we expected, notwithstanding the fact that we are seeing ongoing migration, I'd say that, that's holding about where we think it should be.

因此，我想說，如果你看一下整體淨息差，我會說我們將在整個資產負債表上看到第四季度出現中個位數的逆風在流動性建設之外。所以 3.03% 就接近了——它將正好在 3% 左右。因此，這有點像我們預期的那樣，儘管我們看到正在進行的移民，我想說的是，這保持在我們認為應該的位置。

The other item, as you may have seen in some of our walks in the slide deck is the fact that given the uncertainty and regulatory environment, we've endeavored to actually build liquidity in a much more meaningful way. That liquidity bill is NII neutral. But it does have a nominal impact to the net interest margin. And so you could see that being an impact in the fourth quarter, I'll say it was a couple -- maybe 2 basis points or so in the third quarter that could be maybe another, call it several basis points as you get into the fourth quarter. So you can see things playing out as we expect in the fourth quarter.

正如您在幻燈片中的一些演示中所看到的那樣，另一個事實是，考慮到不確定性和監管環境，我們一直在努力以更有意義的方式實際建立流動性。該流動性法案是 NII 中性的。但它確實對淨息差產生了名義上的影響。所以你可以看到，第四季度的影響，我會說這是幾個基點——第三季度可能是兩個基點左右，也可能是另一個基點，當你進入第四季度時，可以稱之為幾個基點。第四季。因此，您可以看到第四季度的情況正如我們預期的那樣。

When you basically get to the 2024 dynamics, once you reset the table in the fourth quarter, the big puts and takes are, we do have the swap portfolio increasing as you get into -- it's pretty flattish when you get in the first half of the year, but it rises in the second half of the year. It happens that as it relates to '24, that's about when the forward curve would start implying that cuts are starting to come in. So I'd say that when you think about some of the mitigants to the outlook, with the swap portfolio. You're going to have potentially the Fed beginning to cut in the second half of 2024. You have the ongoing benefit of the noncore portfolio -- you've got the growing accretive contributions from the private bank. And with long range being where they are, asset front book, back book is -- cut will contribute positively.

當你基本上了解2024 年的動態時，一旦你在第四季度重置表格，大的看跌期權和看跌期權是，我們的掉期投資組合確實會隨著你進入而增加——當你進入2024年上半年時，它相當平淡。今年有所上升，但下半年有所上升。剛好與 24 年有關，遠期曲線開始暗示削減開始出現的時間。所以，當你考慮掉期投資組合對前景的一些緩解因素時，我會說這一點。聯準會可能在 2024 年下半年開始降息。非核心投資組合將持續帶來好處——私人銀行的貢獻不斷增加。長期來看，資產正面帳面、背面帳面的削減將做出正面貢獻。

And then just the broader balance sheet optimization efforts that we're doing across the bank. I think are all the areas that I would highlight as nice mitigants to what we're seeing play out. Let's see where the rate environment plays out. I mean the forwards have it in 1 place. We have Bloomberg economist consensus are probably 50 basis points lower than where the forwards are. But I mean, Nevertheless, we see this potentially playing out to a very manageable and, frankly, growing momentum as you exit 2024 on the net interest margin.

然後是我們在整個銀行範圍內所做的更廣泛的資產負債表優化工作。我認為所有這些領域都是我要強調的，可以作為我們所看到的情況的良好緩解措施。讓我們看看利率環境會如何發展。我的意思是前鋒把它放在一處。彭博經濟學家的共識可能比遠期利率低 50 個基點。但我的意思是，儘管如此，我們認為隨著 2024 年淨利差的退出，這可能會形成一種非常可控的、坦白說成長的勢頭。

And just to clarify, are you still confident that you could exit taking all out to account exit 4Q '24 have a NIM of about 3%. And based on sort of what you're telling us, it sounds like the -- if the Fed doesn't cut as the forward curve indicated, that would be the risk to that 3%.

澄清一下，您是否仍有信心退出，全力以赴考慮退出 24 年第四季的淨利差約為 3%。根據您告訴我們的內容，這聽起來像是——如果聯準會不按照遠期曲線所示降息，那將是那 3% 的風險。

Yes. I think in the fourth quarter, I'd say that we're all else equal we're getting around that 3% level, depending upon the impact of liquidity builds, which are NII neutral. That is that liquidity build piece that I would say, which is kind of sort of set that aside, just given where we are, it doesn't drive NII. So when you're thinking about the net interest margin that drives NII, we're going to be in that neighborhood of 3% ex-liquidity build.

是的。我認為在第四季度，我想說的是，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們將達到 3% 左右的水平，具體取決於流動性增加的影響，而流動性增加是 NII 中性的。我想說的是，這就是流動性構建部分，這有點被擱置，考慮到我們所處的位置，它不會推動NII。因此，當您考慮驅動 NII 的淨利差時，我們將處於 3% 的除流動性構建附近。

Got it. And I'm going to step back after this because I think I'm taking up too much time. I just want to clarify I'm asking about 4Q '24. Are you talking about 4Q '23? I just wanted to make sure we were on the same page.

知道了。在此之後我將退後一步，因為我認為我佔用了太多時間。我只是想澄清一下，我問的是 24 年第四季的情況。您是在談論 23 年第 4 季嗎？我只是想確保我們意見一致。

4Q '23, yes, sorry, I need to make sure that was clear, all everything I was just saying was about in that last bit was that we're getting around that 3% level, give or take, at the -- in 4Q '23 ex-liquidity build and the liquidity build is NII neutral. So if you're trying to think about where we're driving NII, it's around that plus or minus 3% level ex-liquidity build.

23 年第 4 季度，是的，抱歉，我需要確保這一點很清楚，我剛才所說的所有內容都是關於最後一點的，我們正在接近 3% 的水平，無論給予還是接受，在—— 23年第4 季的流動性建設除外，流動性建設是NII 中性的。因此，如果你想思考我們將 NII 推向何方，那就是在正負 3% 水平的除流動性構建附近。

For 2023 and all the other forces that we talked about earlier, we're -- as you're going into '24, when I was ticking off the tailwinds from noncore private bank asset front book, back book and BSO, all of those are tailwinds into '24, which will be mitigants along with, let's see where the rate cuts actually start kicking in, in the second half of '24. And we'll see where we exit 2024. But that's something we'll come back to you on in terms of adding more color in January as we typically do. And we'll assess our environment and all of those forces and puts and takes at that time.

對於 2023 年以及我們之前討論過的所有其他力量，我們——正如你即將進入 24 年一樣，當時我正在剔除非核心私人銀行資產賬面、賬面和 BSO 帶來的順風，所有這些是進入24 年的順風車，這將是緩解措施，讓我們看看24 年下半年降息實際上從哪裡開始生效。我們將看到 2024 年的退出情況。但我們將像往常一樣在一月份添加更多色彩，然後再與您聯繫。我們將評估我們的環境以及當時所有的力量和投入。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Siefers from Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

I guess I want to revisit that fourth quarter margin just to make sure everybody is on the same page. The reported margin, it sounds like will be below the 3%, however, right, because you do -- and I know it will be dependent on liquidity build, but it sounds like you do anticipate liquidity build. So will we be talking kind of something in the mid-2.90s. Would that be sort of the reported expectation?

我想我想重新審視第四季的利潤率，以確保每個人都達成共識。報告的保證金聽起來會低於 3%，但是，是的，因為你這樣做——而且我知道這將取決於流動性建設，但聽起來你確實預計流動性建設。那麼我們會在 2.90 年代中期談論一些事情嗎？這會是報道中的預期嗎？

It will be lower. It just depends on the NII neutral liquidity build that we determined to be appropriate. So it's sort of -- it's -- I think it's useful to talk about an ex-liquidity build, given the fact that that's the driver of NII, and there'll be possibly additional -- just in terms of the variability of cash and how that gets funded, it will be -- that's flat to NII, but it will be a denominator effect that would take the NIM below that plus or minus 3% that I talked about before, but not an NII driver.

會更低。這僅取決於我們認為合適的 NII 中性流動性建構。因此，我認為討論前流動性建設是有用的，因為這是 NII 的驅動因素，而且可能還會有額外的因素，只是就現金和流動性的可變性而言它將如何獲得資金——這與NII 持平，但這將是一種分母效應，使NIM 低於我之前談到的正負3%，但不是NII 驅動因素。

Yes. Okay. All right. Perfect. And then maybe as we look out just in terms of sort of the handoff from the noncore loan runoff to more visible Private Bank growth. When do we sort of think that will become sort of more neutral from -- in terms of visibility to the balance sheet? Like when would we expect the loan portfolio to sort of level out?

是的。好的。好的。完美的。然後也許正如我們所觀察的那樣，從非核心貸款流失到更明顯的私人銀行成長的交接。我們什麼時候認為在資產負債表的可見性方面會變得更加中立？例如我們預期貸款組合什麼時候會趨於平穩？

Yes. I think that we were saying that we think that the noncore runoff will be a continued driver of sort of in the first half of -- in 4Q and the first half of '24, you'll see some declines in the loan portfolio. But in the second half of '24, we start seeing the Private Bank contributing as well as organic contribution starting to see loan growth such that year-over-year, we would have an expectation you'd see us starting to see loan growth in the second half of '24.

是的。我認為我們說過，我們認為非核心徑流將成為 24 年第四季和 24 年上半年的持續推動因素，你會看到貸款組合下降。但在 24 年下半年，我們開始看到私人銀行的貢獻以及有機貢獻開始看到貸款成長，因此我們預計您會看到我們開始看到貸款成長24年下半年。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Winter from D.A. Davidson.

你的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Peter Winter。戴維森。

Just -- I was wondering on the credit side, we've just seen, in general, some pre-announcements on charge-offs in the Shared National Credit space. Can you just remind us what your exposure is to Shared National Credits and how you fared in the recent exam?

只是 - 我想知道信貸方面，我們剛剛總體上看到了一些關於共享國家信貸領域沖銷的預先公告。您能否提醒我們您對共享國家學分的了解以及您在最近的考試中的表現如何？

So do you want me to take that, John?

那你想讓我接受嗎，約翰？

Sure.

當然。

So -- just in general, as I think -- there's a lot of focus on Shared National Credits. Actually, when we came through the exam this year, we had more upgrades than we had downgrades. So we didn't have any forced charge-offs in terms of our Shared National Credit book. We've been taking our participations down as part of our BSO exercise. We've there about 10 basis points -- 10% lower than they were a couple of quarters ago. I think there's a lot of focus on Shared National Credit. We treat participations or Share National Credit deals exactly as we treat every other credit extension.

因此，正如我所想，總的來說，人們非常關注共享國家信用。事實上，我們今年考試的時候，升級的次數比降級的次數還多。因此，我們的共享國家信用簿中沒有任何強制沖銷。作為 BSO 活動的一部分，我們一直在減少參與。我們的利率大約下降了 10 個基點，比幾個季度前低 10%。我認為人們非常關注共享國家信用。我們對待參與或共享國家信用交易的方式與對待所有其他信用延期的方式完全相同。

So one, it has to return people think about it as hanging paper and then deploying loans and not returning. We go through the exact same process, whether we're participating or leading a transaction or a sole lender. And then also, we do full credit analysis of every single extension that we make, whether it be a Shared National Credit extension or not. So our SNC book doesn't perform any worse than any other book that we have in the bank. And actually, in some cases, it's larger credits, so they might perform marginally better than some of the middle market assets that we have on the book over time.

因此，第一，它必須回報人們認為這是掛紙然後部署貸款而不回報。無論我們是參與或主導交易還是單獨貸款人，我們都會經歷完全相同的流程。然後，我們對每一次延期進行全面的信用分析，無論是否是共享國家信用延期。因此，我們的 SNC 帳本的表現並不比我們銀行裡的任何其他帳本差。實際上，在某些情況下，它的信用額更大，因此隨著時間的推移，它們的表現可能會比我們帳上的一些中間市場資產稍好一些。

Yes. And I think just as part of BSO -- its Bruce, as part of BSO in general, we're kind of looking at the total relationship returns. And if we went into credit as a participant thinking we can kind of move left and become a more important bank, that's not panning out. We're not getting the cross-sell we anticipated, then we're extricating ourselves at the next available opportunity. So I think you'll continue to see that trend...

是的。我認為，作為 BSO 的一部分——布魯斯，作為 BSO 的一部分，我們正在關注總關係回報。如果我們以參與者的身分進入信貸領域，認為我們可以向左移動，成為更重要的銀行，那是行不通的。我們沒有得到預期的交叉銷售，然後我們就會在下一個可用的機會中擺脫困境。所以我認為你會繼續看到這種趨勢...

Yes. And let me just pick up on that. Just in the last quarter, back to the loan growth question, we had about $900 million of front book loan originations, offset by about $1.6 billion of BSO activity. So we're really churning the book towards full relationship credits and away from some of those participations that Bruce mentioned. And I think a lot of the competition is doing exactly the same thing. We see people supporting their lead bank relationships and moving away from more speculative future opportunities.

是的。讓我來談談這一點。就在上個季度，回到貸款成長問題，我們有約 9 億美元的前台貸款發放，被約 16 億美元的 BSO 活動所抵銷。因此，我們確實正在將這本書轉向完整的關係學分，並遠離布魯斯提到的一些參與。我認為很多競爭對手都在做同樣的事情。我們看到人們支持他們的主要銀行關係並放棄更具投機性的未來機會。

Got it. And then -- just can you just provide a little bit more color maybe on the deposit repricing and migration and how you see it playing out with a longer -- higher for longer rates just impacting the deposit pricing pressures?

知道了。然後，您能否就存款重新定價和遷移提供更多信息，以及您如何看待它如何在長期利率較高的情況下發揮作用，從而影響存款定價壓力？

Yes, I'll go and handle that. I mean, I'd say, first off, I mean, I think when you look at our performance from a deposit beta standpoint, we feel like we're basically in the pack with what you're seeing across the industry, which is a really positive results compared to where we were last cycle, which is part of the ongoing investments we've been making in primacy and product capabilities and delivering the entire bank for our customers. So we're really kind of pleased to see where we -- how things are playing out cycle to date.

是的，我去處理一下。我的意思是，我想說，首先，我認為，當你從存款測試版的角度來看我們的表現時，我們覺得我們基本上與你在整個行業中看到的情況是一致的，即與上一個週期相比，我們取得了非常積極的成果，這是我們在首要地位和產品能力方面持續投資的一部分，並為我們的客戶提供了整個銀行。因此，我們真的很高興看到迄今為止事情的進展。

That said, we still are -- and frankly, when you look at the overall metric of noninterest-bearing to overall deposits were around 22%. That's basically back to where we were pre-pandemic. We've seen a decelerating migration out of noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing and seeing decelerating migration even inside of the interest-bearing book. Nevertheless, it's getting smaller every quarter. We would expect to see that really dissipating over the coming quarter or two and that's really what you see when you get late in the cycle and the Fed's on hold. So feeling very good about that trajectory.

也就是說，我們仍然如此——坦白說，當你看到無息存款佔總存款的整體指標時，其比例約為 22%。這基本上回到了大流行前的狀態。我們看到從無息向有息的遷移正在減速，甚至在有息帳簿內部的遷移也在減速。儘管如此，它每個季度都在縮小。我們預計這種情況會在未來一兩個季度真正消散，當你進入周期後期且聯準會按兵不動時，你就會看到這種情況。所以對這條軌跡感覺非常好。

Yes. Maybe, Brendan, you track very carefully how we're doing versus peers and some of our strategies to continue to maintain that low-cost focus. So maybe you can add some additional color.

是的。布倫丹，也許您會非常仔細地追蹤我們與同行相比的表現以及我們繼續保持低成本重點的一些策略。所以也許你可以添加一些額外的顏色。

Yes, sounds good. So much of our low-cost deposit book is in the consumer space and obviously was buoyed through the pandemic by all the stimulus. We saw the rundown of the stimulus rate peak in May, and it started to abate as we got into the summer and the fall, although it's still kind of spending down at a decent clip. We do have a lot of analytics, benchmarking analytics on how we're doing, and this is supportive of John's commentary that the franchise is performing in a very different level than it did the last up-rate cycle.

是的，聽起來不錯。我們的低成本存款帳戶中有很大一部分都在消費領域，顯然在疫情期間所有刺激措施都得到了提振。我們在五月看到了刺激利率高峰的下降，隨著進入夏季和秋季，刺激利率開始減弱，儘管支出仍然以相當大的速度下降。我們確實有很多分析，對我們的表現進行基準分析，這支持了約翰的評論，即特許經營權的表現水平與上一個升級週期截然不同。

We believe we're #2 in the peer set in terms of DDA consumer migration. So we're performing exceptionally well on the DDA side. And when you look at beta on the consumer side, as compared with the growth that we're getting, it appears for about 400 to 500 basis points better in net growth on the consumer book through the cycle so far and our betas are mildly better. So more growth slightly better cost on the core book. That's excluding Citizens Access. That's a real indicator of the quality of franchise and the quality of the customer base that we've moved from sort of a community banking, high-priced deposit focus to deeply engaged primary banking relationships.

我們相信，在 DDA 消費者遷移方面，我們在同業中排名第二。因此，我們在 DDA 方面的表現非常出色。當你觀察消費者方面的貝塔值時，與我們獲得的增長相比，到目前為止，消費者賬簿上的淨增長似乎高出約 400 到 500 個基點，而且我們的貝塔值也稍微好一些。因此，核心書上的更多增長略好一些。這不包括公民訪問。這是特許經營品質和客戶群品質的真實指標，我們已經從社區銀行業務、高價存款重點轉向深入參與的主要銀行關係。

So we expect the pay down of low-cost deposits to continue to slow obviously, depended on rate environment and the economy that potentially could change. What I do feel really confident in is that our relative performance to peers will be strong and we'll continue to outperform on the consumer side and the stability of our low-cost book. At the individual customer level, they still have a little bit more liquidity in their balances than they did pre-pandemic, that's largely held by affluent and high-net-worth individuals, our mass market book and even in the mass affluent space, they've sort of moderated back down to operating floors.

因此，我們預計低成本存款的償還速度將繼續明顯放緩，具體取決於利率環境和可能變化的經濟。我真正有信心的是，我們相對於同行的表現將會強勁，我們將繼續在消費者方面和低成本圖書的穩定性方面表現出色。在個人客戶層面，他們的餘額中的流動性仍然比大流行前多一點，這主要由富裕和高淨值個人持有，我們的大眾市場書籍，甚至在大眾富裕領域，他們已經有點回到操作樓層了。

So I think those are all signs that would support the continued slowdown in the rundown of low-cost deposits pending any recessionary impact that may bring them below operating floors. So we feel pretty good. And just on the uninsured and insured deposit front, we saw a little bit of a blip on the uninsured in March. And since March, that has been incredibly stable and all parts of the book have been growing.

因此，我認為這些跡像都將支持低成本存款持續放緩，以應對任何可能導致低成本存款低於營運底線的經濟衰退影響。所以我們感覺很好。僅在未投保和參保存款方面，我們在三月就看到了未參保存款的一些波動。自三月以來，這一直非常穩定，本書的所有部分都在增長。

So all the fundamentals point to continued trajectory of stability and certainly continue to outperform. And then in addition to that, we're controlling what we can control is we're performing in the top quartile in the United States in terms of household acquisition growth. The New York market, as John pointed out, is helping to give us an extra lever to drive low-cost deposit growth over and above just the portfolio trends, which are generally outperforming. So we do believe we've got a distinctive amount of levers for the franchise to continue to outperform in the medium-term outlook on low-cost deposits.

因此，所有基本面都指向持續穩定的軌跡，並且肯定會繼續跑贏大盤。除此之外，我們正在控制我們可以控制的事情，那就是我們在家庭收購成長方面的表現在美國排名前四分之一。正如約翰所指出的那樣，紐約市場正在幫助我們提供額外的槓桿，以推動低成本存款成長，超越投資組合趨勢，而投資組合趨勢通常表現出色。因此，我們確實相信，我們擁有大量獨特的槓桿，可以使特許經營業務在低成本存款的中期前景中繼續跑贏大盤。

Very helpful. And then just one quick housekeeping. I just want to confirm, John, you said that the private -- the expense outlook for next year being flat. That includes the Private Bank build-out expenses.

很有幫助。然後只需進行一次快速的內務處理。約翰，我只是想確認一下，你說明年的私人支出前景持平。這包括私人銀行的擴建費用。

Yes. The underlying expenses to be flat next year, including the Private Bank as well as noncore.

是的。明年的基本支出將持平，包括私人銀行和非核心支出。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Just a follow-up on that last question. John, I just wanted to ask you, I know that the Private Bank buildout was $35 million of cost this quarter. Just wondering if there's any changes to your expectation of what that would trend like going forward as part of that cost commentary.

只是最後一個問題的後續。約翰，我只是想問你，我知道本季私人銀行的擴建成本為 3500 萬美元。只是想知道作為成本評論的一部分，您對未來趨勢的預期是否有任何變化。

I think Brendan will probably have some color on this. So it's pretty similar into the fourth quarter. And then, of course, into next year, you see it starting to migrate towards a -- instead of being an EPS drag, it gets back to breakeven, when you get out into 2024. And then more broadly, a 5% contribution to EPS is our outlook there. But go ahead.

我認為布倫丹可能對此有一些看法。所以第四季的情況非常相似。當然，到了明年，你會看到它開始轉向——當你進入2024 年時，它不再是每股收益的拖累，而是恢復到盈虧平衡。然後更廣泛地說，對每股收益的貢獻為5%每股收益是我們的展望。但繼續吧。

Yes. There'll be -- into Q4, some very modest upticks in the low 40s potentially. And the reasons for that, we hired the majority of the team as you all know, in the early part of the summer, the influences on that nudging up is our successful securing of various different private banking offices coast-to-coast to house the team and start to bring in customers into the platform, some operating expenses clients come on board as well as we're playing some very selective second-tier office. There's still a lot of talent in motion and this quarter after the first 150. We also hired another 25 really top A-list talent folks in all of those same offices that we opened in the summer. And so we're going to be selective. But as we see the right talent pop up, we're going to grab them -- add them to the team. So...

是的。進入第四季度，可能會出現 40 左右的小幅上漲。原因是，眾所周知，我們在夏初聘請了團隊的大部分成員，對這種推動的影響是我們成功地確保了從東海岸到西海岸的各種不同的私人銀行辦事處，以容納團隊並開始將客戶引入平台，一些營運費用客戶加入，我們正在扮演一些非常有選擇性的二線辦公室。在前 150 名員工之後，本季度仍有大量人才在流動。我們還在夏季開設的所有辦公室中聘請了另外 25 名真正頂尖的一流人才。所以我們會有所選擇。但當我們看到合適的人才出現時，我們就會抓住他們——將他們添加到團隊中。所以...

The other thing, just in the way the comp is structured, Ken, that the folks who came over on guarantees as if they're fully producing. So as the revenues come in, there won't be incremental costs. They'll just be kind of earning those pay levels. So another factor to consider.

另一件事，就補償的結構而言，肯，那些過來的人保證就好像他們正在全力生產一樣。因此，隨著收入的增加，成本不會增加。他們只是賺取這些工資水平。所以要考慮另一個因素。

Yes, that's a great point. And then as a follow-up, you guys have done a great job over the years on the TOP program and just I take your commentary about holding costs flat, inclusive of these extra builds that would imply a real turn exiting the year given that you ramped through the year on cost this year. And John, I know you mentioned AI as a piece of that increment. But you've done 100 plus of TOP each year. I'm just wondering like where else would you be digging in across the organization to get that magnitude of what seems to be a pretty meaningful implied to extra cost save out of the numbers next year.

是的，這是一個很好的觀點。然後作為後續行動，你們這些年來在 TOP 計劃上做得很好，我只是接受你們關於保持成本不變的評論，包括這些額外的構建，這意味著今年將出現真正的轉變，因為你們今年成本大幅上升。約翰，我知道你提到人工智慧是這一增量的一部分。但你每年都完成了 100 多個 TOP。我只是想知道，您還會在整個組織中進行哪些研究，以獲得明年從數字中節省額外成本似乎非常有意義的意義。

Yes. So it's Bruce. And let me start off and then John can amplify. But the TOP program, I think, has been a real consistent contributor to our ability to deliver positive operating leverage. But to actually get to flat for next year, we have to go beyond that. So we've geared up a very nice TOP program and we're adding to it. But I think we're going to have to look at kind of employment levels broadly to see where we can extract some folks and we'll look at certain business activities that may be less important going forward than what we have been engaged in historically.

是的。所以是布魯斯。讓我開始，然後約翰可以詳細說明。但我認為，TOP 計畫一直為我們提供積極的營運槓桿能力做出了真正的持續貢獻。但要真正實現明年持平，我們必須超越這個目標。因此，我們已經準備好了一個非常好的 TOP 計劃，並且正在添加。但我認為我們將不得不廣泛地審視就業水平，看看我們可以在哪裡吸引一些人，我們將關注某些商業活動，這些活動在未來可能不如我們歷史上從事的活動那麼重要。

We've already done some of that this year. So we downsized the mortgage business quite a bit. We exited the auto business. So I think it's a combination of actions. It's continuing to find ways to upsize TOP, leverage things like AI, where we can do that, look at our overall board structure and staffing levels and see if we can pinch some efficiencies there. And then look hard at our business mix and figure out where the key years not to just have a knee-jerk revenues, there's revenue pressure in the environment. So let's really take a hard knife at all expenses. We have to be judicious about where we're cutting and protect the things that we feel are really going to help us grow and outperform in the medium term. So things like the private banks, things like the New York metro expansion. There's things that we're going to ring fence and then there's other areas we're going to have to go a little harder with the knife. John?

今年我們已經做了一些這樣的事。因此，我們大幅縮減了抵押貸款業務。我們退出了汽車業務。所以我認為這是行動的結合。它正在繼續尋找擴大 TOP 規模的方法，利用人工智慧等我們可以做到的事情，看看我們的整體董事會結構和人員配置水平，看看我們是否可以在那裡提高一些效率。然後認真審視我們的業務組合，找出關鍵年份不要只是下意識的收入，環境中存在收入壓力。所以，讓我們不惜一切代價，真正拿起一把硬刀吧。我們必須明智地選擇削減哪些內容，並保護那些我們認為真正能幫助我們在中期內成長和超越的事物。例如私人銀行、紐約地鐵擴建等。有些事情我們要圍起來，然後還有其他地方我們必須用刀更用力一些。約翰？

Yes, I think that covered it well, Bruce and just ongoing the fundamentals, our bread and butter of focusing on organizational related items and third-party spend and the like. And I won't repeat all the categories that Bruce articulated, but we've got a fundamental underpinning that we feel like we have the opportunity to broaden out with while protecting the initiatives that are going to help us outperform over the medium term.

是的，我認為這很好地涵蓋了這一點，布魯斯以及正在進行的基礎知識，我們的麵包和黃油專注於組織相關項目和第三方支出等。我不會重複布魯斯闡述的所有類別，但我們有一個基本的基礎，我們覺得我們有機會擴大規模，同時保護那些將幫助我們在中期表現出色的舉措。

Your next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

You have 67% of deposits from consumer, so a strong franchise there. And you noted that you should outperform peers on a relative basis. But one of your large peers noted last week that banks may still be overearning on NII. So I guess my question was, how do you see competitive factors playing out for consumer deposits next year, especially if the rate environment stays higher for longer?

您有 67% 的存款來自消費者，因此那裡擁有強大的特許經營權。您指出，相對而言，您的表現應該優於同行。但一位大型同業上週指出，銀行在 NII 的獲利可能仍然超額。所以我想我的問題是，您如何看待明年消費者存款的競爭因素，特別是如果利率環境在較長時間內保持在較高水準？

Brendan, do you want to?

布蘭登，你願意嗎？

Yes. We certainly have seen continued heavy competition for consumer deposits. You're seeing kind of money market and CD rates in the mid-5s in some spots. We feel like we're competing really, really well on that. Obviously, it's supported by our transformation on low cost, that's where you kind of start on how you manage strong NII levels and NIM levels as having a solid foundation of low-cost, highly engaged customers. We have probably more levers than others have to manage through whatever the competitive intensity ends up coming our way in 2024.

是的。我們當然看到了對消費者存款的持續激烈競爭。在某些地方，你會看到貨幣市場和 CD 利率在 5 左右。我們覺得我們在這方面的競爭非常非常好。顯然，它得到了我們低成本轉型的支持，這就是您如何管理強大的 NII 水平和 NIM 水平的起點，因為擁有低成本、高度參與的客戶的堅實基礎。無論 2024 年的競爭強度如何，我們可能比其他人擁有更多的手段來應對。

Certainly, we have Citizens Access, which has been an incredibly positive tool for us to grow interest-bearing deposits in a smart way with really sticky relationships, but also it helps not put too much contagion into the retail banking system with heavy kind of window rates on the front of the branches that may drive in hot money and bring the franchise into non-relationship-based banking. And so that's been an incredibly effective tool to both raise money and also protect how we manage and compete on interest-bearing costs. We've also -- where we have competed in the core franchise with some of the more aggressive rates. We've done it in an incredibly relationship-based way.

當然，我們有公民訪問，這是一個非常積極的工具，讓我們能夠通過真正粘性的關係以明智的方式增加計息存款，但它也有助於避免在窗口沉重的零售銀行系統中造成太多的傳染。分行前面的利率可能會吸引熱錢並將特許經營權帶入非關係型銀行業務。因此，這是一個非常有效的工具，既可以籌集資金，也可以保護我們在計息成本方面的管理和競爭方式。我們也以一些更激進的價格在核心特許經營領域中競爭。我們以一種令人難以置信的基於關係的方式做到了這一點。

So the access into no pun intended with Citizen's access, access into higher rates on deposits of your core banking customer of ours requires you to be in a relationship product. We call it Quest or a private client, which is our mass affluent or affluent value proposition. So when you do more with us, you get more, that strategy has enabled us to be more targeted in how we think about introducing interest-bearing costs into the environment that we're able to protect and retain balances in a really thoughtful rate way versus reprice the entire book in some spots. So it's intense out there. We expect that to continue through the first half of the year as deposits are sort of hard to come by through the U.S. banking system, but we think we've got the right tools and the right levers to continue to win and compete well with our peers.

因此，要獲得公民訪問的雙關語，即獲得我們核心銀行客戶的更高存款利率，需要您使用關係產品。我們稱之為 Quest 或私人客戶，這是我們的大眾富裕或富裕的價值主張。因此，當您與我們一起做更多事情時，您會得到更多，該策略使我們能夠更有針對性地思考如何將計息成本引入我們能夠以真正深思熟慮的利率方式保護和保留餘額的環境中而不是在某些地方重新定價整本書。所以外面的氣氛很激烈。我們預計這種情況將持續到今年上半年，因為透過美國銀行系統很難獲得存款，但我們認為我們擁有正確的工具和槓桿來繼續獲勝並與我們的銀行進行良好的競爭。同行。

And just maybe just to add, that's all great points there. And then just to add one other point about this. I mean, the rate environment is not -- is expected to become more constructive, I guess, is the point. Meaning if you're raising deposits in a world where the yield curve is inverted or at best getting less inverted. That's always going to be a tricky situation for banks until it becomes a more stable upward sloping situation, which I think is more likely to be the case as you get into '24 and certainly to the end of '24, when you start seeing lower short-term rates and nevertheless, an attractive long-term rate where we can basically deploy our capital and make a positive return. So that's really what I think is going to shake out as you get into '24.

也許只是補充一下，這都是很棒的觀點。然後再補充一點關於這一點。我的意思是，我想，利率環境預計會變得更具建設性，這才是重點。這意味著，如果您在殖利率曲線倒掛或最多倒掛較少的世界中籌集存款。對於銀行來說，這始終是一個棘手的情況，直到它變成一種更穩定的向上傾斜的情況，我認為當你進入24 年，當然到24 年底，當你開始看到更低的利率時，這種情況更有可能發生。短期利率，然而，一個有吸引力的長期利率，我們基本上可以配置我們的資本並獲得正回報。所以我認為這確實是進入 24 年後將會發生的事情。

Another -- I mean the other one last piece of color I would add is that as we enter 2024, we're still kind of having a net loan shrink, and that will eventually turn around as the private bank starts to put on loans, and we'll see where the economy is. But we won't really need to -- we're not pressured to grow deposits given that dynamic on loans. We can still see the LDR improve just by keeping loans stable or even letting them drop a little bit. So factoring that into the calculus of do you really need to be aggressive given that's your dynamic around loans and deposits that helps you manage the cost of your deposit franchise.

另一個——我的意思是我要補充的最後一點是，當我們進入 2024 年時，我們的淨貸款仍然在縮減，隨著私人銀行開始發放貸款，這種情況最終會扭轉，我們會看看經濟狀況如何。但我們真的不需要——考慮到貸款的動態，我們沒有增加存款的壓力。只要維持貸款穩定甚至稍微下降，我們仍然可以看到LDR有所改善。因此，考慮到您是否真的需要積極進取，因為您的貸款和存款動態可以幫助您管理存款特許經營成本。

Great. I appreciate all the color there. And just separately on the LCR requirements, you mentioned that you're compliant in both Category 1 and Category 3 now and that this build is also NII neutral. But I guess the question is, how much more do you think you need to build from here? And how do you think about that increasing your asset sensitivity in the long run?

偉大的。我欣賞那裡的所有顏色。就 LCR 要求而言，您提到您現在符合類別 1 和類別 3，而此版本也是 NII 中立的。但我想問題是，你認為你還需要從這裡建造多少？從長遠來看，您如何看待這會提高您的資產敏感度？

Yes. I mean, I'd basically say a couple of questions in there. I mean I think the regulatory requirements are generally inducing banks to become more asset sensitive. You got the issue of more broadly, if the long-term debt rule goes in, that would be along with having to hold liquidity that is shorter duration, that's going to cause asset sensitivity to grow over time. We're naturally an asset-sensitive bank. And those forces would cause us to be more asset sensitive. So that will -- we'll have to consider in the coming and during the transition periods, whether it makes sense to moderate those positions with all balance sheet types of actions.

是的。我的意思是，我基本上會在那裡說幾個問題。我的意思是，我認為監管要求通常會促使銀行變得更加資產敏感。更廣泛地說，如果實行長期債務規則，那麼就必須持有期限較短的流動性，這將導致資產敏感性隨著時間的推移而增長。我們天生就是一家資產敏感型銀行。這些力量將使我們對資產更加敏感。因此，我們必須考慮在未來和過渡期間，透過所有資產負債表類型的行動來調整這些部位是否有意義。

But nevertheless, there's generally a tailwind of asset sensitivity being created from the regulatory environment, but also idiosyncratic to us, our noncore portfolio as that runs off that's mostly a fixed book and that has a tailwind to asset sensitivity. We're around neutral now. So going -- becoming a bit more asset sensitivity over time is some of the underlying forces there that I would say are in place, and we'll decide as the environment plays out, whether how and whether to moderate that.

但儘管如此，監管環境通常會產生資產敏感性的順風，但對我們來說也很特殊，我們的非核心投資組合主要是固定帳簿，對資產敏感性有順風。我們現在處於中立狀態。因此，隨著時間的推移，資產敏感性變得更加敏感，這是我認為已經存在的一些潛在力量，我們將根據環境的發展來決定是否以及如何以及是否對其進行調節。

And again, the liquidity build is NII neutral. So it's really not a driver. And it's something that, again, at the NII guide of down 2% is really driven by basically having a -- the ex-liquidity build NIM decline is really the driver of that and it equates to the 2% that you're seeing in the guide. So that's the way to pull it all together for 4Q.

再次強調，流動性建構是 NII 中性的。所以它真的不是一個司機。再說一遍，NII 指南中下降 2% 的驅動因素基本上是——除流動性外的 NIM 下降實際上是其驅動因素，它相當於你所看到的 2%。導遊。這就是第四季度將所有內容整合在一起的方法。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Connor from Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特康納。

A lot of talk earlier in the call, in terms of net interest income trajectory for next year and all the puts and takes. But I just wanted to circle back on that. In a stable rate environment to kind of higher for longer when and around what level does the net interest income dollars start to bottom?

電話會議早些時候討論了很多關於明年淨利息收入軌跡以及所有看跌期權和看跌期權的內容。但我只是想回顧一下這一點。在穩定的利率環境下，淨利息收入何時以及在什麼水準開始觸底？

Yes, I mean we're still working through our 2024 outlook, right? So we're going to be much more -- I would say, transparent about what our expectations are for '24 as you get into planning season here and completing that. And of course, we do that in January.

是的，我的意思是我們仍在研究 2024 年的前景，對嗎？因此，當你在這裡規劃賽季並完成它時，我們將更加透明地表達我們對 24 賽季的期望。當然，我們在一月這樣做。

With that said, we -- broadly, as you look at the swap trajectory for us into '24, we have a swap portfolio growing right around the time that the forwards would indicate the Fed would begin to cut. As a matter of fact, and as I mentioned earlier, there's -- you could actually see deviation around that. And we happen to have a view that it's likely -- that it will actually come in a little lower than where the forwards have it coming in at the end of '24. So that will be a mitigant.

話雖如此，總的來說，當你觀察 24 年的掉期軌跡時，我們的掉期投資組合在遠期表明聯準會將開始降息的時候就在成長。事實上，正如我之前提到的，你實際上可以看到圍繞這一點的偏差。我們碰巧認為，它實際上可能會比 24 年底前鋒的收入要低一些。所以這將是一個緩解措施。

And as I mentioned, the noncore rundown is a mitigant. And private bank as that grows is, of course, accretive. The other thing I'll mention, I mean, if you get beyond '24 and you look at what's happening in the '25 through '27 time frames, it's certainly more consistent with a more neutral Fed posture that would represent, regardless of what the transition is in '24, that would represent a significant tailwind getting into '25 through '27, as you see the swap portfolio being more of a neutral impact to net interest margin and NII.

正如我所提到的，非核心縮減是一種緩解措施。當然，隨著私人銀行的發展，它也會不斷增值。我要提到的另一件事，我的意思是，如果你看看 24 年之後，看看 25 年到 27 年時間範圍內發生的事情，它肯定更符合美聯儲更加中立的立場，無論什麼過渡期是在24 年，這將代表從25 年到27 年將出現重大順風，因為您會看到掉期投資組合對淨利差和NII 的影響更為中性。

And so working our way through '24, we get some really nice tailwinds. And that's just on the active swap portfolio. We also have a locked in and baked in tailwind from the terminated swaps which run off, as you can see on our slide, in a significant way over '25 to '27. So I would call '24 a transition year while the Fed normalizes rates, and our balance sheet optimization takes hold with noncore and creates a lot of momentum as you look out into '25 and beyond.

因此，在 24 年的努力中，我們獲得了一些非常好的順風。這還只是活躍掉期投資組合的情況。正如您在我們的幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們還從終止掉期中獲得了鎖定和推動的順風，這些掉期在 25 年至 27 年期間以顯著的方式流失。因此，我將 24 年稱為過渡年，聯準會將利率正常化，我們的資產負債表優化將在非核心領域發揮作用，並在展望 25 年及以後時創造大量動力。

Yes. I would just add a little color here, Matt, to you and Erika's question. I think Erika was looking for John to say, are you still holding a 3% in the fourth quarter this year and the fourth quarter next year. I think the reluctance to draw a line in the sand on 3% is the amount of the liquidity build and that -- some of the cards from the regulators on new liquidity regulations aren't turned over yet. So just putting that aside, if you just say that's a bit of an unknown -- do we still have an ambition to have our exit rate at the end of '23 be roughly the exit rate at the end of '24. Yes, that would still be the ambition. We have to go through the work, as John said, to go through kind of the budget process for next year, but that's still where we'd be hoping to arrive.

是的。馬特，我只想為你和艾莉卡的問題添加一點色彩。我想Erika是在找John說，今年第四季和明年第四季你還持有3%的股嗎？我認為，不願在 3% 上劃清界線是因為流動性的增加，而監管機構關於新流動性監管的一些牌尚未上交。因此，拋開這一點，如果你只是說這有點未知——我們是否仍然有雄心壯志，讓 23 年底的退出率大致與 24 年底的退出率相同。是的，這仍然是我們的野心。正如約翰所說，我們必須完成這項工作，完成明年的預算流程，但這仍然是我們希望達到的目標。

And then just in terms of the impact of rate cuts versus higher for longer scenario, what's -- what does higher for longer do versus the rate cuts? Because it sounds like you're still a little asset sensitive, but the roll-on of the swaps would obviously benefit from rate cuts, so what's the net impact if rates are stable versus what the forward curve has for next year? Is it better or worse?

然後，就降息與長期較高利率的影響而言，長期較高利率與降息相比有何影響？因為聽起來你仍然對資產有點敏感，但掉期的滾動顯然會受益於降息，那麼如果利率相對於明年的遠期曲線保持穩定，那麼淨影響是什麼？是好還是壞？

Yes. I'd say that where we're positioned, we're right around neutral. The -- a small increase in rates is actually positive to our platform. A large -- we tend to calculate this stuff using the 100-basis-point and 200-basis-point gradual rises, we're relatively neutral in those kinds of calculations, which you'll see disclosures on in our 10-Q. But when it comes to just another hike, or -- and those kinds of conversations, meaning we tend to -- in those environments continue to make money and have a positive impact to NII.

是的。我想說的是，我們的立場是中立的。費率的小幅上漲實際上對我們的平台是積極的。我們傾向於使用 100 個基點和 200 個基點的逐步上漲來計算這些東西，我們在此類計算中相對中立，您將在我們的 10-Q 中看到披露。但當涉及到另一次升息時，或者——以及那些類型的對話，這意味著我們傾向於——在這些環境中繼續賺錢並對NII產生積極影響。

The other -- so generally, the forward curve is favorable to us. I think we like the tracking of the forward curve. We start getting cuts at the end of '24 and that allows the continued front book, back book. We like the long end being more anchored a little higher. That helps, too, in terms of our originations on our fixed rate loan book. So again, and it also provides opportunities to later on lock in higher rates to the extent that, that's desirable. So the forward curve is, I think, constructive for us, plus or minus is fine. I think large moves either way is where we would say it starts to kind of create potential headwinds. But other than that, we're feeling -- we would feel okay with it.

另一個——總的來說，遠期曲線對我們有利。我認為我們喜歡追蹤遠期曲線。我們從 24 年底開始削減開支，這樣就可以繼續前書、後書。我們喜歡將長端固定得更高一些。這對我們固定利率貸款簿的起源也有幫助。再說一遍，它也提供了稍後鎖定更高利率的機會，達到理想的程度。因此，我認為遠期曲線對我們來說是有建設性的，加或減都可以。我認為，無論哪種方式的大幅波動，我們都會說它開始產生潛在的阻力。但除此之外，我們感覺——我們會對此感到滿意。

Okay. So to summarize, steeper is better as a good rule of thumb?

好的。總而言之，越陡越好作為一個好的經驗法則？

I'd say forward curve is better and plus or minus is not going to move the needle very much. So having some cuts at a slow -- I mean in general, over the long term, banks do better we're maturity -- where maturity intermediary. When rate -- when we have an upward sloping yield curve. So the short rates are at 550. We think that it's more constructive to see short rates around 300 to 350 over the long term. We also think it's constructive to have a 10-year that's north of 4% in that same environment. So therefore, a gradual decline from 550 down to about 300 to 350 over the next 2 years, we think it's not only good for us, but good for the industry and allow us to get back to an upward sloping yield curve. And I think that, that's the environment where we would be performing in a very good way. That said, we pivot and manage to the extent that the rate environment migrates differently than that. But that's the one that I would say works out the best for us and the industry as a whole.

我想說的是，前向曲線更好，加或減不會對指針產生太大影響。因此，慢慢進行一些削減——我的意思是，總的來說，從長期來看，銀行在成熟度方面做得更好——其中成熟度是中介。當利率－當我們有向上傾斜的殖利率曲線時。因此短期利率為 550。我們認為長期來看短期利率在 300 至 350 左右更有建設性。我們也認為，在相同的環境下，10 年成長率超過 4% 是有建設性的。因此，在未來兩年內從 550 逐漸下降到約 300 至 350，我們認為這不僅對我們有利，而且對整個行業有利，並使我們能夠回到向上傾斜的收益率曲線。我認為，這就是我們能夠以非常好的方式表現的環境。也就是說，我們會根據利率環境的變化進行調整和管理。但我想說的是，這對我們和整個產業來說是最好的。

Your next question comes from the line of Vivek Juneja from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

I guess I have a couple of clarifications given all the discussions going on. John, when you said -- let's start with expenses. You talked about underlying expenses to be flat next year. But then you also said not that includes private bank and noncore. Noncore is not included in the way you define underlying expenses. So are you saying both underlying, which is core and reported expenses are both going to be flat next year?

鑑於所有正在進行的討論，我想我有一些澄清。約翰，當你說——讓我們從開支開始。您談到明年的基本支出將持平。但你也說過不包括私人銀行和非核心銀行。非核心不包括在您定義基礎費用的方式中。那麼您是說明年的基本支出（即核心支出）和報告支出都將持平嗎？

No, I'd say underlying expenses at the top of the house will be flat next year, '24 versus '23. Underlying includes Private Bank, it includes noncore overall CFG expenses will be flat in '24 versus '23.

不，我想說明年房屋頂部的基本支出將持平，“24 年”與“23 年”相比。標的資產包括私人銀行，其中包括非核心總體 CFG 支出，24 年與 23 年持平。

Underlying does not exclude those things today, Vivek, it includes those things.

底層並不排除今天的那些東西，Vivek，它包括那些東西。

Okay. Okay. So I wonder -- with all these definitions, everybody has a little difference, so it's important to clarify that. The second one, I guess, John, going back to the rate discussion, I just want to get my head wrapped around that. If I heard you right, just in response to Matt's question, is that small increase in rate is beneficial to NII. But then rate cuts is also positive. So I'm trying to reconcile how both scenarios are positive for you?

好的。好的。所以我想知道，對於所有這些定義，每個人都有一點差異，所以澄清這一點很重要。第二個，我想，約翰，回到利率討論，我只是想集中精力解決這個問題。如果我沒聽錯的話，剛才回答 Matt 的問題，利率的小幅成長對 NII 是有利的。但隨後降息也是積極的。所以我正在嘗試協調這兩種情況對你來說有何正面意義？

Yes, I can clarify that, Vivek. I mean a small increase in rates from here would drive some NII -- a small amount of NII and a small decline would be a small negative in terms of the small decline in NII, but they're both quite small which is why we're calling ourselves neutral. But just -- but from a positioning standpoint, it would be a small positive if rates rose from here and let's say, one additional hike for example. Let's say if the Fed has a hike in the fourth quarter in November or December, we'll see an NII contribution to that. A small cut goes the other way and also -- but not a significant decline if there was a cut.

是的，我可以澄清這一點，維維克。我的意思是，利率的小幅上升將推動一些NII——少量的NII和小幅下降對於NII的小幅下降而言將是一個小的負面影響，但它們都很小，這就是我們的原因。我們稱自己為中立。但只是——但從定位的角度來看，如果利率從這裡上升，比如說再一次升息，這將是一個小小的積極因素。假設聯準會在 11 月或 12 月第四季升息，我們將看到 NII 對此的貢獻。小幅削減也有相反的效果——但如果有削減，也不會大幅下降。

Yes. And to be clear, that's -- and the difference here is what happens immediately, say, in the next quarter versus what happens over time. We are very constructive and feel very good about a gradual decline in rates where the short rate end gets down to 3% to 3.5% over, call it, a quarterly period of time. We think that's very good as it gives time for balance sheets to adjust and to have front book, back books continue to get locked in and be supportive of a healthy balance sheet migration over the next, call it, a year or two as our balance sheet optimization continues to take hold with noncore runoff, et cetera. So we would -- our balance sheet does well with an upward sloping balance sheet that we'll migrate to over the, call it, the '24 and early '25 period.

是的。需要明確的是，這裡的區別是下個季度立即發生的情況與一段時間內發生的情況。我們非常有建設性，並且對利率逐步下降感到非常滿意，即短期利率最終下降至每季 3% 至 3.5%。我們認為這非常好，因為它給了資產負債表調整的時間，並讓前帳本、後帳本繼續被鎖定，並支持未來資產負債表的健康遷移，稱之為一兩年作為我們的平衡板材優化繼續在非核心徑流等領域佔據主導地位。因此，我們的資產負債表在向上傾斜的資產負債表上表現良好，我們將在「24 世紀」和「25 世紀初期」遷移到該資產負債表。

And one more clarification, that's helpful. On the expenses, Bruce, when you talk about stable for next year, what are you assuming for Capital Markets? Are you assuming Capital Markets revenues and therefore incentive comp goes up? Or are you just using current level? Any color on that?

還有一項澄清，這很有幫助。關於費用，布魯斯，當您談到明年的穩定時，您對資本市場有何假設？您是否假設資本市場收入因此激勵補償上升？或者您只是使用當前級別？那上面有什麼顏色嗎？

Yes. Well, we haven't given the full guidance yet on '24, but there is a variable element of pay that if revenues go up in Capital Markets that pay would go up. That's probably the one area that has the greatest tied to revenues across the bank. And we would have to contemplate that as we go through the budget process. So we said we're targeting the flat expenses for next year, and we would incorporate our view on kind of where the Capital Markets fees are going to be and then what additional payouts would result from that. And then we'd have to find ways to offset that elsewhere in the bank.

是的。好吧，我們還沒有給出 24 世紀的完整指導，但是薪酬中有一個可變因素，如果資本市場的收入增加，薪酬就會上漲。這可能是與整個銀行收入關係最密切的領域。當我們進行預算流程時，我們必須考慮這一點。因此，我們說我們的目標是明年的固定費用，我們將結合我們對資本市場費用的看法以及由此產生的額外支出。然後我們必須找到方法來抵消銀行其他地方的影響。

And at this time, there are no further questions. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Van Saun for closing remarks.

而此時，已經沒有其他問題了。接下來，我將把電話轉給 Van Saun 先生做總結發言。

Okay. Thanks again for dialing in today. We certainly appreciate your interest and support. Have a great day. Thank you very much.

好的。再次感謝您今天撥通電話。我們當然感謝您的關注與支持。祝你有美好的一天。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。