Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Citizens Financial Group third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Denise, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded.

各位早安，歡迎參加 Citizens Financial Group 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫丹妮絲，今天由我來為您接聽電話。（操作說明）提醒：本次活動正在錄影。

Now I'll turn the call over to Kristin Silberberg, Head of Investor Relations. Kristin, you may begin.

現在我將把電話交給投資人關係主管克里斯汀‧西爾伯格。克里斯汀，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Denise. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, this morning, our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and Interim CFO, Chris Emerson, will provide an overview of our third quarter results. Brendan Coughlin, President; and Don McCree, Chair of Commercial Banking, are also here to provide additional color. We will be referencing our third quarter presentation located on our Investor Relations website. After the presentation, we will be happy to take questions.

謝謝你，丹妮絲。各位早安，感謝各位的參與。首先，今天上午，我們的董事長兼執行長布魯斯·範·桑恩和臨時財務長克里斯·埃默森將概述我們第三季度的業績。總裁 Brendan Coughlin 和商業銀行主席 Don McCree 也到場，為大家帶來更多細節。我們將參考投資者關係網站上發布的第三季報告。演講結束後，我們將樂意回答大家的問題。

Our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. These are outlined for your review in the presentation. We also reference non-GAAP financial measures, so it's important to review our GAAP results in the presentation and the reconciliations in the appendix. And with that, I will hand over to Bruce.

我們今天的評論將包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的結果與預期有重大差異。這些內容已在簡報中列出，供您審閱。我們也參考了非公認會計準則財務指標，因此請務必查看簡報中的公認會計準則結果以及附錄中的調節表。接下來，我將把麥克風交給布魯斯。

Thanks, Kristin. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call today. We announced very strong financial results today as our momentum continues. We feel like we are firing on all cylinders. Financial highlights include EPS growth of $0.13 sequential quarter or 14%, with strong NII growth of 3.5% sequentially and paced by NIM expansion of 5 basis points and net loan growth across consumer, private bank and commercial similar to last quarter.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。各位早安，感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。我們今天公佈了非常強勁的財務業績，發展動能依然強勁。我們感覺自己狀態極佳，一切都運作正常。財務亮點包括每股收益環比增長 0.13 美元，增幅達 14%，淨利息收入環比強勁增長 3.5%，主要得益於淨息差擴大 5 個基點，以及消費、私人銀行和商業貸款淨增長與上季度持平。

Fee growth was 5% versus Q2, paced by a tremendous quarter in Capital Markets, our second highest ever as well as continued nice growth in wealth fees. Sequential positive operating leverage was 3% as expense growth was held to just 1%. We continue to experience favorable credit trends and we still have a robust balance sheet. Our CET1 increased 10 basis points to 10.7%. We have an LDR of 78.3% and virtually no wholesale borrowing.

費用成長較第二季成長 5%，主要得益於資本市場業務的強勁表現（創歷史第二高），以及財富管理費用的持續良好成長。由於費用成長控制在 1%，因此環比正經營槓桿率為 3%。我們持續享受著良好的信貸狀況，我們的資產負債表依然穩健。我們的CET1上升了10個基點，達到10.7%。我們的貸款償還率 (LDR) 為 78.3%，幾乎沒有批發借款。

We continued the strong execution of our strategic initiatives during the quarter. The Private Bank had a banner quarter on deposits with spot growth of $3.8 billion to $12.5 billion, which is already ahead of our year-end $12 billion target. Loans and AUM continue to track well. We have now added eight wealth lift-outs to the private wealth platform with more in the pipeline. We continue to build out our private bank team with additional hires in Southern California, and we now have around 500 people in the business, quite the ramp from a start-up in 2023.

本季我們持續有力地執行了各項策略舉措。私人銀行本季存款業績斐然，即期存款成長 38 億美元，達到 125 億美元，已經超過了我們年底 120 億美元的目標。貸款和資產管理規模繼續保持良好勢頭。目前，我們已在私人財富平台上新增了八項財富提取計劃，還有更多計劃正在籌備中。我們繼續在南加州擴充私人銀行團隊，並增加了員工，目前公司員工約有 500 人，與 2023 年的新創公司相比，這是一個相當大的成長。

In addition, our efforts across New York City Metro, private capital and payments are all tracking well. Our efforts around reimagine the bank continue to make good progress. We've systematically evaluated all areas of the bank to seek opportunities to improve how we are serving customers and how we are running the bank.

此外，我們在紐約市都會區、私人資本和支付方面的努力都進展順利。我們圍繞銀行重塑所做的努力持續取得良好進展。我們系統地評估了銀行的各個方面，以尋找改善我們服務客戶方式和銀行運作方式的機會。

We will give the full parameters of this effort on the January earnings call. Overall, we expect benefits to largely offset costs, including one-timers in 2026, with net benefits beginning to positively impact results in 2027 and becoming quite meaningful thereafter.

我們將在1月的財報電話會議上公佈這項工作的全部細節。總體而言，我們預計收益將基本抵銷成本，包括 2026 年的一次性支出，淨收益將在 2027 年開始對業績產生積極影響，並在此後變得相當顯著。

One of my priorities this year has been to commence the transition of the leadership team I assembled a decade ago to the new refresh team that can take us forward for the next decade. Most recently, we announced that Don McCree will be retiring in March 2026, having handed the range to Ted Swimmer earlier in October.

我今年的首要任務之一是開始將我十年前組建的領導團隊過渡到新的、充滿活力的團隊，帶領我們走向下一個十年。最近，我們宣布唐麥克雷將於 2026 年 3 月退休，他已於 10 月初將靶場交給了泰德斯威默。

Don has been a great partner and has made a big contribution towards our success. It's been a real pleasure working with him. We've been planning Don's succession for some time, and I have every confidence that Ted is the right leader to take us on the next leg of the journey.

唐一直是我們非常棒的合作夥伴，為我們的成功做出了巨大貢獻。與他共事真是一件非常愉快的事。我們已經計劃唐的繼任者一段時間了，我完全相信泰德是帶領我們進入下一個階段的合適人選。

When Aunoy Banerjee arrives in 10 days as our new CFO, the team will have been largely refreshed with several younger, dynamic outstanding new leaders. Turning back to the financials. With respect to Q4, we expect to continue to see attractive earnings growth faced by positive operating leverage, favorable credit trends and share repurchase.

10 天后，當 Aunoy Banerjee 到任擔任我們的新任財務長時，團隊將煥然一新，湧現出幾位年輕、充滿活力且傑出的新領導者。回到財務數據。展望第四季度，我們預期在積極的經營槓桿、有利的信貸趨勢和股票回購的推動下，獲利將繼續保持可觀的成長。

We remain highly focused on executing our strategic agenda, which should deliver superior organic EPS growth relative to our peers over time as well as further improvements in returns. We are positioned well to sustain our momentum into 2026.

我們將繼續高度專注於執行我們的策略議程，隨著時間的推移，這將帶來優於同行的有機每股收益成長，以及收益的進一步提高。我們已做好充分準備，將發展動能維持到2026年。

The macro environment remains positive despite continuing uncertainty with respect to fiscal and monetary policies. We will stay focused on execution and the things that we can control as we continue on our journey towards building a top-performing bank. With that, let me turn it over to Chris Emerson, our Interim CFO. Chris?

儘管財政和貨幣政策方面仍存在不確定性，但宏觀環境仍保持積極態勢。我們將繼續專注於執行和我們能夠控制的事情，朝著打造一家業績一流的銀行的目標不斷前進。接下來，我將把發言權交給我們的臨時財務長克里斯·埃默森。克里斯？

Thanks, Bruce. Good morning, everyone. As Bruce mentioned, we delivered a strong revenue performance with disciplined expense management in the quarter, driving both sequential and year-over-year positive operating leverage of about 3% and 5%, respectively. We saw good growth in deposits with the Private Bank hitting $12.5 billion in deposits for the third quarter, up $3.8 billion. Lending continued to pick up during the quarter, with growth led by increasing sponsor activity in commercial and the private bank.

謝謝你，布魯斯。各位早安。正如布魯斯所提到的，本季度我們透過嚴格的費用管理實現了強勁的收入業績，推動了環比和同比分別增長約 3% 和 5% 的積極經營槓桿。我們看到存款實現了良好成長，私人銀行第三季存款額達到 125 億美元，增加了 38 億美元。本季貸款業務持續成長，成長主要得益於商業銀行和私人銀行發起人活動的增加。

Given our strong outlook, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.46, which is a $0.04 or a 9.5% increase. Referencing Slides 5 and 6, we delivered EPS of $1.05 for the third quarter, an increase of $0.13 or 14% over the second quarter. PPNR was up 9% sequentially and 20% year-over-year. Capital Markets delivered a record third quarter and our best performance since the all-time high fourth quarter of 2021. Performance was strong across all categories, demonstrating the power of our capabilities as market activity picks up.

鑑於我們強勁的前景，董事會宣布派發季度股息 0.46 美元，比上年同期增長 0.04 美元，增幅達 9.5%。參考投影片 5 和 6，我們第三季的每股盈餘為 1.05 美元，比第二季成長了 0.13 美元，增幅達 14%。PPNR季增9%，年增20%。資本市場第三季業績創歷史新高，是自 2021 年第四季創歷史新高以來表現最好的一季。所有類別均表現強勁，證明了隨著市場活動的增加，我們展現了強大的實力。

Net interest margin continues to steadily expand, up 5 basis points to 3% and average loan volume was up 1%, which combined, delivered 3.5% NII growth. Expenses were well managed, and we had 3% positive operating leverage. Credit trends continue to be favorable and net charge-offs were lower as expected. We continue to maintain robust capital, strong liquidity levels and a healthy credit reserve. We ended the quarter with our CET1 ratio at 10.7% while executing $75 million in stock buybacks during the quarter.

淨利差持續穩定擴大，上升 5 個基點至 3%，平均貸款額成長 1%，兩者合計使淨利差成長 3.5%。費用控制得當，我們實現了 3% 的正向經營槓桿。信貸趨勢持續向好，淨沖銷額如預期般降低。我們繼續保持雄厚的資本實力、強勁的流動性水準和健康的信貸儲備。本季末，我們的CET1比率為10.7%，同時本季執行了7,500萬美元的股票回購。

And importantly, we are executing well against our key strategic initiatives with very strong momentum in our private bank and private wealth build-out. The Private Bank continues to steadily grow its earnings contribution adding $0.08 to EPS this quarter, up from $0.06 in the prior quarter.

更重要的是，我們在關鍵策略措施的執行上進展順利，私人銀行和私人財富建設方面更是勢頭強勁。私人銀行的獲利貢獻持續穩定成長，本季每股收益增加 0.08 美元，高於上一季的 0.06 美元。

With this, the Private Bank hit an important milestone this quarter, achieving cumulative breakeven with the EPS contribution since the launch in 2023, completely covering our investments and then some in about 2-years. Next, I'll talk through the third quarter results in more detail, starting with net interest income on Slide 7. Net interest income increased 3.5% linked quarter driven by continued expansion of our net interest margin and a 1% increase in average interest-earning assets.

由此，私人銀行在本季度達到了一個重要的里程碑，自 2023 年成立以來，每股收益貢獻實現了累計盈虧平衡，在大約 2 年內完全覆蓋了我們的投資，並且還有盈餘。接下來，我將更詳細地講解第三季業績，首先從第 7 張投影片上的淨利息收入開始。淨利息收入季增 3.5%，主要得益於淨利差的持續擴大和平均生息資產成長 1%。

The margin expansion of 5 basis points was driven by the time-based benefits of non-core runoff and reduced impact from terminated swaps as well as fixed rate asset repricing. We continue to do a good job optimizing deposits in a competitive environment. Interest-bearing deposit costs were stable, while total deposit costs were down slightly. Our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta was 53% through the third quarter. Moving to Slide 8.

利潤率擴大 5 個基點，主要得益於非核心業務逐步退出帶來的時間效益，以及終止互換交易和固定利率資產重新定價帶來的影響降低。我們在競爭激烈的環境中持續努力優化存款策略。計息存款成本保持穩定，而總存款成本略有下降。截至第三季末，我們的累計計息存款β係數為53%。切換到第 8 張投影片。

These are up 5% linked quarter and up 18% year-over-year. As I mentioned earlier, Capital Markets delivered a record third quarter and our second best ever quarterly performance. An increase in market activity drove strong M&A results even before including the deals that were delayed from the prior quarter.

季增 5%，年增 18%。正如我之前提到的，資本市場第三季業績創下歷史新高，也是我們有史以來第二好的季度業績。即使不計入上一季延期的交易，市場活動的增加也推動了強勁的併購業績。

We saw a meaningful pickup in debt underwriting, primarily driven by refinance activity, and we delivered a solid performance across loan syndication fees and equity underwriting. We continue to perform well on the league tables ranking fourth for the last 12-months on deal volume for middle market sponsored loan syndications.

我們看到債務承銷業務顯著回升，主要受再融資活動的推動；我們在貸款銀團費用和股權承銷方面也取得了穩健的業績。我們在排行榜上繼續表現出色，在過去 12 個月中，中端市場擔保貸款銀團交易量排名第四。

And our deal pipelines across M&A, debt and equity capital markets remain strong. Our wealth business delivered a record quarter with higher advisory fees from continued positive momentum in fee-based AUM growth, given strong inflows from the conversion of private wealth lift outs as well as market appreciation.

我們在併購、債務和股權資本市場的交易管道依然強勁。由於私人財富提取資金的強勁流入以及市場升值，我們的財富管理業務在按費用計費的資產管理規模增長方面保持了積極的勢頭，諮詢費也隨之增加，實現了創紀錄的季度業績。

As expected, mortgage and other income came down from elevated levels in the prior quarter. On Slide 9, expenses are up 1%, reflecting continued investment in the build-out of Private Bank and Private Wealth and strong capital markets performance. Disciplined expense management and strong revenues resulted in approximately 170 basis points of improvement in our efficiency ratio to 63%.

正如預期的那樣，抵押貸款和其他收入從上一季的高點有所下降。投影片 9 顯示，支出增加了 1%，這反映了對私人銀行和私人財富建設的持續投資以及強勁的資本市場表現。嚴格的費用管理和強勁的收入使我們的效率比率提高了約 170 個基點，達到 63%。

Our top 10 program is progressing well and is on target to deliver a $100 million pre-tax run rate benefit by the end of this year. I'll provide an update on our reimagine the Bank initiative in just a few minutes. On Slide 10, period-end loans were up 1%. This includes non-core portfolio runoff of roughly $600 million in the quarter. And excluding non-core, loans were up approximately 2% on a spot basis.

我們的十大項目進展順利，預計在今年年底前實現 1 億美元的稅前運作效益。我稍後會就我們重新構想銀行計劃的最新進展作匯報。第 10 頁顯示，期末貸款增加了 1%。這其中包括本季約 6 億美元的非核心投資組合退出。剔除非核心貸款後，現貨貸款成長約 2%。

The Private Bank delivered a solid loan growth again this quarter with period-end loans up about $1 billion to $5.9 billion, reflecting a pickup in commercial line utilization and growth in retail mortgage. Commercial loans were up slightly on a spot basis given increased line utilization tied to sponsor activity.

本季私人銀行再次實現了穩健的貸款成長，期末貸款額增加約 10 億美元，達到 59 億美元，反映出商業貸款額度使用率上升和零售抵押貸款成長。由於發起人活動增加，信貸利用率上升，商業貸款現貨價格略有上漲。

We continue to reduce CRE balances, which were down about 3% this quarter and 6% year-to-date. And core retail loans grew by about $1 billion, driven by home equity and mortgage. Next, on Slides 11 and 12, we continue to do a good job on deposits with noninterest-bearing balances increasing by about $1.5 billion or 4%, maintaining a steady mix at 22% of the book as our overall spot deposits increased approximately $5 billion to $180 billion.

我們繼續減少商業房地產餘額，本季下降了約 3%，今年迄今下降了 6%。核心零售貸款成長了約 10 億美元，主要得益於房屋淨值貸款和抵押貸款的推動。接下來，在第 11 和 12 張幻燈片中，我們繼續在存款方面做得很好，非計息餘額增加了約 15 億美元，即 4%，保持了賬簿中 22% 的穩定比例，同時我們的整體即期存款增加了約 50 億美元，達到 1800 億美元。

Average deposits were up 1% driven by increases in the Private Bank and Commercial with spot up 3%, including some larger transactional flows towards the end of the quarter. We continue to focus on optimizing our deposit funding costs with a further reduction of higher-cost treasury broker deposits this quarter and a decline in retail CD rates.

受私人銀行和商業存款成長的推動，平均存款增加了 1%，其中即期存款增加了 3%，包括本季末的一些較大交易流量。我們將繼續專注於優化存款融資成本，本季將進一步減少成本較高的國庫經紀存款，並降低零售定期存款利率。

Our interest-bearing deposit costs are stable linked quarter, translating to a 53% cumulative down-beta. And importantly, stable retail deposits are 66% of our total deposits, which compares to a peer average of about 56%. Moving to credit on Slide 13.

我們的計息存款成本與上季持平，累計下降貝塔係數為 53%。更重要的是，穩定的零售存款占我們總存款的 66%，而同業平均約為 56%。第 13 頁進入片尾字幕。

Net charge-offs of 46 basis points are down from 48 basis points in the prior quarter, driven primarily by a decrease in C&I. Credit trends continue to trend favorably with non-accrual loans down slightly linked quarter, driven by C&I and CRE with criticized balances also declining. Turning to the allowance for credit losses on Slide 14.

淨沖銷額為 46 個基點，低於上一季的 48 個基點，主要原因是工商業貸款減少。信貸趨勢持續保持良好勢頭，非應計貸款較上季略有下降，主要受工商企業貸款和商業房地產貸款的推動，同時，受批評的貸款餘額也有所下降。接下來我們來看第 14 頁投影片的信用損失準備金。

The allowance was down slightly to 1.56% this quarter as the portfolio mix continues to improve due to noncore runoff, the reduction in the CRE portfolio, and lower loss content front book originations across C&I and retail real estate secured. The economic forecast supporting the allowance is relatively stable to the prior quarter.

由於非核心資產的逐步剝離、商業房地產投資組合的減少以及商業和工業地產及零售地產擔保業務中損失率降低，本季度貸款準備金略微下降至 1.56%，投資組合結構持續改善。支持該補貼的經濟預測與上一季相比相對穩定。

The general office balance of $2.5 billion continued to decline modestly in the third quarter driven by paydowns and charge-offs. This is down by $1.6 billion since March of 2023, roughly 40%. The reserve for the general office portfolio is $314 million, which represents a robust 12.4% coverage. Moving to Slide 15. We maintained excellent balance sheet strength, our CET1 ratio increased to 10.7%.

第三季度，由於償還債務和沖銷，一般辦公帳戶餘額繼續小幅下降至 25 億美元。與 2023 年 3 月相比，這一數字下降了 16 億美元，約 40%。一般辦公大樓投資組合的儲備金為 3.14 億美元，覆蓋率高達 12.4%。切換到第15張投影片。我們維持了良好的資產負債表實力，我們的CET1比率上升至10.7%。

And adjusting for the AOCI opt-out removal, our CET1 ratio is 9.4%. We returned a total of $259 million to shareholders in the third quarter with $184 million in common dividends and $75 million of share repurchases.

考慮到 AOCI 選擇退出移除，我們的 CET1 比率為 9.4%。第三季度，我們向股東返還了總計 2.59 億美元，其中 1.84 億美元為普通股股息，7,500 萬美元為股票回購。

Moving to Slide 16 and 17. We are well positioned to drive strong performance over the medium term with our overall 3-part strategy. A transformed consumer bank, the best positioned commercial bank among our regional peers and our aspiration to build the premier bank-owned private bank and private wealth franchise.

接下來請看第16和17張投影片。憑藉我們整體的三部分策略，我們有能力在中期內實現強勁的業績成長。一家轉型後的消費銀行，一家在區域同業中地位最高的商業銀行，以及我們打造一流的銀行所有製私人銀行和私人財富特許經營權的願景。

The Private Bank continued to make excellent progress, as you can see on Slides 18 and 19. The Private Bank delivered its strongest quarter of deposit growth so far with end-of-period deposits up $3.8 billion to $12.5 billion and average deposits up $2.2 billion to $10.7 billion.

正如您在幻燈片 18 和 19 中看到的那樣，私人銀行繼續取得了優異的進展。私人銀行本季存款成長創歷史新高，期末存款增加 38 億美元至 125 億美元，平均存款增加 22 億美元至 107 億美元。

The overall deposit mix continues to be very attractive with about 34% in non-interest-bearing at the end of the quarter. We also delivered strong loan growth this quarter adding roughly $1 billion of loans to end the quarter at $5.9 billion. This reflects growth in subscription finance as line utilization raise with increased client transaction activity as well as good growth in mortgage.

截至季末，整體存款結構仍非常有吸引力，其中約 34% 為不計息存款。本季我們的貸款成長也十分強勁，新增貸款約 10 億美元，季末貸款總額達 59 億美元。這反映了訂閱融資的成長，因為隨著客戶交易活動的增加，信貸額度利用率提高，以及抵押貸款的良好成長。

So far, we've added 8 wealth teams to our platform with more in the pipeline. We ended the quarter with $7.6 billion in AUM, up $1.1 billion linked quarter, reflecting the continued strong conversion rates of the wealth lift-outs. And with year-to-date earnings of $0.18, we are tracking to approximately 7% earnings contribution, which is above our target of 5% plus accretion to Citizens bottom line in 2025.

目前，我們已在平台上新增了 8 個財富管理團隊，還有更多團隊正在籌備中。本季末，我們的資產管理規模為 76 億美元，比上一季成長 11 億美元，反映出財富提取業務持續強勁的轉換率。今年迄今的收益為 0.18 美元，我們預計將實現約 7% 的收益貢獻，高於我們 2025 年為 Citizens 的淨利潤增加 5% 的目標。

We continue to remain focused on sustaining strong growth in the Private Bank, while maintaining a high level of profitability with ROE in the 20% to 25% range in 2025 and over the medium term. Moving to Slide 20.

我們將繼續專注於維持私人銀行業務的強勁成長，同時保持較高的獲利能力，力爭在 2025 年及中期內實現 20% 至 25% 的淨資產收益率。切換到第20張投影片。

Our Reimagine the Bank initiative continues to take shape. We feel very good about how we are currently positioned. However, the pace of change is accelerating and competition is fierce. So we are taking the opportunity to think boldly about what will be needed to take the bank to the next level.

我們的「重塑銀行」計畫正在逐步成形。我們對目前的市場地位感到非常滿意。然而，變革的步伐正在加快，競爭也異常激烈。因此，我們正在藉此機會大膽思考，要將銀行提升到下一個水平需要做些什麼。

We have a team of executives from across the bank, working on cultivating technology and AI-enabled ideas that will empower our colleagues to run the bank better and we are looking at all our key customer touch points to simplify and improve the customer experience.

我們有一個由全行主管組成的團隊，致力於培育技術和人工智慧賦能的理念，這將使我們的同事能夠更好地經營銀行。我們正在研究所有關鍵的客戶接觸點，以簡化和改善客戶體驗。

Aside from technology, we're looking at areas like reducing the number of vendors we use and rationalizing how they serve us across the bank. We are also looking at how we use our corporate facilities and how best to optimize our branch network to build our market share in key markets.

除了技術之外，我們還在關注減少供應商數量以及優化他們在全行範圍內為我們提供服務的方式等領域。我們也在研究如何利用公司設施，以及如何最好地優化分支機構網絡，以在重點市場中擴大市場份額。

We will have more details on the contours of the program for you on our year-end earnings call, but suffice to say, we will be running the program with our usual financial discipline with an eye towards minimizing the impact of onetime costs and capital investments in '26 by executing initiatives with faster paybacks. The program will drive positive net benefits in 2027 that we expect will accelerate into 2028. With this program, we aspire to deliver fully phased-in run rate benefits greater than top 6, which was in excess of $400 million.

我們將在年終財報電話會議上向您詳細介紹該計劃的輪廓，但可以肯定的是，我們將以一貫的財務紀律來執行該計劃，著眼於通過執行回報更快的舉措，最大限度地減少 2026 年一次性成本和資本投資的影響。該計劃將在 2027 年帶來積極的淨收益，我們預計這種收益將在 2028 年加速成長。透過這項計劃，我們希望實現全面分階段實施的運行率效益，超過前 6 名的水平，而前 6 名的水平超過 4 億美元。

On Slide 21, we provide our guide for the fourth quarter, which contemplates two 25 basis points rate cuts, one in October and another in December. We expect net interest income to be up approximately 2.5% to 3%, driven by an improvement in net interest margin of approximately 5 basis points and interest-earning assets up slightly, maintaining a fairly consistent spot LDR to the third quarter.

在第 21 張投影片中，我們提供了第四季度的指導意見，其中考慮兩次降息 25 個基點，一次在 10 月，另一次在 12 月。我們預計淨利息收入將增長約 2.5% 至 3%，這主要得益於淨息差改善約 5 個基點以及生息資產略有增長，從而使現貨貸款比率與第三季度保持相當穩定。

We expect noninterest income to be stable with capital markets holding steady to the third quarter and some puts and takes across other categories. We are projecting expenses to be stable to up slightly, and we expect to deliver sequential positive operating leverage for the third quarter in a row and for the full year. Credit is expected to continue to trend favorably with charge-offs in the low 40s basis points.

我們預期非利息收入將保持穩定，資本市場在第三季保持穩定，其他類別也會出現一些買賣交易。我們預計支出將保持穩定或略有成長，並有望連續第三個季度以及全年實現正向營運槓桿。預計信貸將繼續保持良好趨勢，壞帳率將維持在 40 個基點左右。

And we should end the fourth quarter with the CET1 ratio stable at 10.7%, including share repurchases of roughly $125 million, which, depending on the amount of loan growth could be revised. The fourth quarter tax rate should be approximately 22.5%.

在第四季末，我們的 CET1 比率應穩定在 10.7%，其中包括約 1.25 億美元的股票回購，但根據貸款成長情況，該比率可能會進行調整。第四季稅率應約為 22.5%。

Moving to Slide 22. Looking out to the medium term, we see a clear path to achieving our 16% to 18% ROTCE target. Expanding our net interest margin is an important driver, along with the impact of the successful execution of our strategic initiatives and improving credit performance.

切換到第22張投影片。展望中期，我們看到了實現 16% 至 18% ROTCE 目標的明確路徑。擴大淨利差是重要的驅動因素，同時，成功執行策略措施和改善信貸表現也會產生影響。

To wrap up, our strong third quarter results demonstrate the quality and potential of our fee businesses as well as the consistent improvement in our net interest margin. Coupled with our continued expense discipline, we achieved positive operating leverage for the second quarter in a row.

總而言之，我們強勁的第三季業績證明了我們收費業務的品質和潛力，以及我們淨利差的持續改善。憑藉持續的成本控制，我們連續第二季實現了正的營運槓桿效應。

Credit trends continue to improve. And with our strong reserves and capital level, we are in an excellent position to continue navigating a dynamic environment while supporting our clients and continuing to progress our strategic initiatives. And with that, I'll hand it back over to Bruce.

信貸趨勢持續改善。憑藉我們雄厚的儲備和資本水平，我們處於非常有利的地位，能夠繼續應對瞬息萬變的環境，同時支持我們的客戶並繼續推進我們的戰略舉措。就這樣，我把它交還給布魯斯。

Okay. Thank you, Chris. Denise, let's open it up for some Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，克里斯。丹妮絲，我們來進入問答環節吧。

Thank you. We will now begin a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。現在我們將開始問答環節。（操作說明）

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe, Chris, I was hoping you could spend just a moment discussing the expected margin trajectory sort of both near term and then toward the 3.25% to 3.50% medium-term target. I know the fourth quarter margin should come in around 3.05%, which is up, but sort of towards the lower end of the range, you all had discussed previously. So maybe just thoughts on how things are trending versus your expectations and then sort of the puts and takes as we go out beyond the fourth quarter in your mind?

大家早安。感謝您回答這個問題。克里斯，或許你可以花一點時間討論預期利潤率走勢，包括近期和中期目標（3.25% 至 3.50%）。我知道第四季利潤率應該在 3.05% 左右，雖然有所上升，但還是接近你們之前討論過的區間下限。所以，您能否談談目前的發展趨勢與您的預期有何不同，以及在展望第四季之後，您有哪些需要權衡的因素？

Yeah. Thank you for the question. Scott, as you mentioned, we're forecasting that 3.05% into the fourth quarter. And as you know, that's on the back, a lot of the time-based activity, the non-core runoff, the terminated swap benefit, fixed asset repricing. And although we're slightly asset sensitive, we believe that positives on active swaps and a mix will overcome the asset sensitivity and allow us to hit 3.05% into the fourth quarter.

是的。謝謝你的提問。史考特，正如你所說，我們預測第四季將達到 3.05%。如您所知，這主要體現在背面，包括許多基於時間的活動、非核心業務的逐步淘汰、終止的互換收益、固定資產重新定價。儘管我們對資產略有敏感，但我們相信，積極的互換交易和多元化投資組合將克服資產敏感性，使我們能夠在第四季度實現 3.05% 的收益率。

And as we project out across the medium term, to our 3.25% to 3.50% range, we really look at that in a couple of buckets. We've got our time-based benefits, which is the majority of everything that you're going to see there as well as the front book, back book, which is adding a couple of basis points each quarter to round it out. And then the net of our mix pricing and other should take us the rest of the way into that range.

當我們展望中期，預計成長率將達到 3.25% 至 3.50% 時，我們會將其分為幾個類別來考慮。我們有基於時間的福利，這佔了您將在那裡看到的所有內容的大部分，還有前端賬簿、後端賬簿，每個季度增加幾個基點來完善它。然後，我們的混合定價和其他因素的淨額應該能讓我們最終達到該範圍。

Yeah. I would also say, Scott, it's Bruce, that the initial several quarters back view was that we could exit 3.05% to 3.10%. I'm still happy to be at 3.05%. A couple of things have happened over the course of the year. One is that the back end of the curve has come down.

是的。我還要補充一點，史考特，我是布魯斯，最初幾季的觀點是我們可以以 3.05% 到 3.10% 的價格退出。我對目前的3.05%的水平仍然很滿意。這一年裡發生了幾件事。一是曲線後段已經下降。

So I think our original view was the 10-year would be in the 4.25% to 4.50% range. And so it's lower than that, which crimps a little bit the front book, back book benefit. It's still there, but we assumed it would be a little higher. The other thing that's happened is that commercial loan pricing spreads have come in. It's a bit tight.

所以我認為我們最初的看法是，10 年期公債殖利率會在 4.25% 到 4.50% 之間。因此，它比那還要低，這稍微削弱了前幾本書、後幾本書的收益。它還在那裡，但我們原以為它會更高一些。另一件事是商業貸款定價利差已經出現。有點緊。

And so it's those two factors really, which have brought us in kind of still within the range but more at the lower end of that range.

因此，正是這兩個因素使我們仍然處於該範圍內，但更接近該範圍的下限。

Perfect. That's good color and thank you. And then, Bruce, maybe it's sort of a broader top-level question, the ground seems to be shifting a little in the large regional space. I think since last quarter, where it looks like we're going to create a new category for name with one merger and then move another category 4 bank up to category 3 eventually.

完美的。顏色真好看，謝謝。然後，布魯斯，也許這是一個更廣泛的、更高層次的問題，大區域模式似乎正在發生一些變化。我認為從上個季度開始，我們似乎要透過一次合併創建一個新的名稱類別，然後最終將另一家 4 類銀行提升到 3 類。

Any updated thoughts on the role M&A might play in the Citizens store over the next couple of years? Or is it still that you've got just plenty of organic runway that you'd rather sort of maintain that organic momentum?

對於未來幾年併購在Citizens商店發展中可能扮演的角色，您有什麼最新的看法？或者，你仍然擁有充足的自然成長空間，因此你更願意保持這種自然成長動能？

Yeah, I'd say that's still the case, Scott. So we have, I think, our own somewhat analogous acquisition to what other people are doing was the start-up of the private bank. And we're getting significant accretion to the bottom line and we didn't have to expend any capital to do that.

是的，斯科特，我覺得情況仍然如此。所以，我認為，我們自己的收購行為與其他人正在做的事情在某種程度上是類似的，那就是創辦私人銀行。而且我們獲得了顯著的利潤成長，而我們並沒有為此投入任何資本。

We took a little risk in the start-up of the business, which is now already covered the initial investment, and it's an excellent well-positioned business that has -- we're competing that to continue to get growth while we're achieving very strong profitability levels. And so that's our focus is to make sure we execute well on that.

我們在創業初期承擔了一些風險，但現在已經收回了初始投資，而且這是一個定位非常合理的優秀企業——我們正在與競爭對手展開競爭，以期在實現非常強勁的盈利水平的同時繼續保持增長。所以，我們的重點就是確保我們能把這件事做好。

We set that business up to be really valuable franchise in the medium and long term. I think we're on that trajectory, which we feel good about. We have another -- a bunch of other initiatives, too, looking at New York Metro and the growth that we're achieving there, looking at some of the investments we've done in the commercial bank and how we're covering private capital.

我們把這項業務打造成為中長期內非常有價值的特許經營項目。我認為我們正朝著這個方向發展，對此我們感到很滿意。我們還有其他一些舉措，例如關注紐約都會區以及我們在那裡取得的成長，關注我們在商業銀行進行的一些投資以及我們如何涵蓋私人資本。

And we've been waiting for activity levels to pick up to really demonstrate the prowers of how that business is positioned. And now when you see activity level is picking up, I think you can see the power of what we've assembled.

我們一直在等待業務活動水準回升，以真正展現該業務的定位優勢。現在，當大家看到活動水準正在回升時，我想大家就能看到我們所建立的一切的力量了。

So we have a lot of strong growth. We're always alert for opportunities. But as I said in the past, it has to be a pretty high bar for us to go down that path and look at things in organic.

所以我們實現了強勁成長。我們時刻警惕各種機會。但正如我過去所說，要走上這條路，以有機的方式看待事物，門檻必須非常高。

Dave Rochester, Cantor Fitzgerald.

戴夫·羅徹斯特，坎托·菲茨杰拉德。

Hey, good morning guys, nice quarter. Just quick on the Private Bank outlook. You reiterated the levels you talked about before in terms of loan deposit targets, AUM. You're already there in deposits. So it would be great to just hear your outlook there.

嘿，各位早上好，這季過得還不錯。簡單談談私人銀行業前景。您重申了先前討論過的貸款存款目標和資產管理規模水準。你的存款已經足夠了。所以，很想聽聽你對此的看法。

Over the next quarter or the next year. And then in terms of AUM, it looks like there may be a little bit of a gap. If you could just talk to your confidence in hitting that target by the end of the year would be great.

接下來一個季度或接下來一年。而就資產管理規模而言，似乎可能存在一些差距。如果你能談談你對年底前實現目標的信心，那就太好了。

Sure. I'll start, and then Brendan can offer color. But I'd say the path on deposits is not going to be linear. So you're going to have, I'd say, in the second quarter, we saw some outflows near the end of the quarter. And the third quarter, we saw some inflows near the end of the quarter.

當然。我先開始，然後布倫丹可以補充細節。但我認為存款的成長路徑不會是線性的。所以，我認為，在第二季度，我們在季度末看到了一些資金流出。第三季末，我們看到了一些資金流入。

And so you kind of have to look at this kind of over the trajectory over several quarters, it averages out. We feel really good that we're already at the year-end level, and we would expect to see some growth. But I don't think it will be that significant. We won't have another quarter like we had in Q3 and Q4, but we should still achieve net growth from here. So that's good.

所以你必須從幾季的軌跡來看，平均下來就會好很多。我們非常高興目前已經達到年底水平，並期待看到一些成長。但我認為不會有那麼大的影響。我們不會再有像第三季和第四季那樣的業績了，但我們仍然應該能夠實現淨成長。那很好。

I think loans is tracking well. AUM, which you pointed out is a combination of things. So some of it is lift-outs that we've already done and how fast they're converting over their client base. Some of it is lift-outs in the pipeline and when they close and some of it is the referrals that we're getting from the private bank over to private wealth. And so I think the wildcard as to whether we hit that number or not at the end of the year is going to be a couple of the lift outs in the pipeline.

我認為貸款情況進展良好。正如您所指出的，AUM（資產管理規模）是多種因素的組合。所以其中一些是我們已經完成的拓展項目，以及它們在客戶群中的轉換速度。一部分是正在進行中的項目，待專案完成後就會啟動；另一部分是我們從私人銀行轉介到私人財富管理領域的客戶。所以我認為，年底我們能否達到這個數字，關鍵在於幾個正在籌備中的提煉項目能否順利完成。

Do they happen in Q4 or they spill into Q1. I'm not concerned by that. I mean, if it's just a timing-based difference. The good news is that we're continuing to see a lot of interest in the platform. We've gone around the whole circuit and we've got and two wealth teams paired up with each private banking team.

這些事件是發生在第四季還是會延續到第一季？我並不擔心。我的意思是，如果只是時間上的差異的話。好消息是，我們持續看到大家對該平台表現出濃厚的興趣。我們已經走遍了整個流程，並且為每個私人銀行團隊都配備了兩個財富管理團隊。

And so we feel good about how it's building the quality of what we're assembling. We have more in the pipeline. We'll see exactly when that timing hits. So with that, let me turn it over to Brendan.

因此，我們對它如何提升我們所組裝產品的品質感到滿意。我們還有更多項目正在籌備中。我們拭目以待，看看具體時間何時到來。那麼，接下來就交給布倫丹吧。

Thanks, Bruce. Maybe start with a point or two on the medium-term outlook and then add to Bruce's comments about Q4. We feel really confident over the next year or two that this momentum we're seeing will continue. And to kind of give you a few points here, but the original team that we brought over back in 2023, we'd estimate maybe they've got 50% to 60% of their book of business size of what they had prior to First Republic's failure.

謝謝你，布魯斯。或許可以先談談中期前景的一兩點，然後再補充 Bruce 對第四季的評論。我們非常有信心，未來一兩年內，這種發展動能將持續下去。再補充幾點，我們2023年引進的原班人馬，據估計，他們的業務規模可能只有第一共和銀行倒閉前的50%到60%。

Now we don't expect that to get back to 100%, given the market we're operating in at higher rates and so on and so forth. But the capacity to continue to grow is there. Then you supplement that with the management actions we've taken since we brought that team on board. Bruce mentioned and Kristin, too. We started with about 150 people.

鑑於我們目前所處的市場利率較高等等情況，我們預計這種情況不會恢復到 100%。但其仍有持續成長的潛力。然後，再加上我們自該團隊加入以來所採取的管理措施。布魯斯提到了克莉絲汀，克莉絲汀也提到了。我們最初有大約150人。

We're up to 500 people. We're slowly and surely adding scale and capacity, expanding geographies. We've added new capabilities in family office. We've added new products and partner loan programs, so on and so forth. And we're doubling the number of PBOs that we have between now and the end of next year.

我們現在有500人了。我們正在穩步擴大規模和產能，拓展業務範圍。我們在家族辦公室方面增加了新的功能。我們增加了新產品和合作夥伴貸款計劃等等。從現在到明年年底，我們將把PBO的數量增加一倍。

And you can see in our deck, the PBOs have over $300 million, which is incredibly large for such a short time period to open a retail branch. So that should give us fuel in the tank. We also have done a really nice job connecting the franchise, particularly as of late with One Citizens. And so we're starting to see a lot of cross-pollination of the private bank just being -- us protecting and incubating it to grow. Now it's starting to become upscale and they're working more effectively with the commercial bank with our investment bankers, with our business banking team, with the retail bank, the wealth team.

您可以在我們的簡報中看到，PBO 擁有超過 3 億美元的資金，對於在如此短的時間內開設零售分店來說，這是一筆非常龐大的資金。這樣一來，油箱裡應該就有足夠的燃料了。我們在連結各個特許經營權方面也做得非常出色，特別是最近與 One Citizens 的合作。因此，我們開始看到私人銀行領域出現了許多交叉融合——我們保護並培養它以使其成長。現在它開始走向高端化，他們與商業銀行、我們的投資銀行家、我們的企業銀行團隊、零售銀行、財富管理團隊的合作也更加有效。

We're seeing a lot of cross-pollination that it's not just about growing -- getting their clients back, it's now about cross-selling into the existing Citizens franchise in private banking. So there's a lot of tailwinds here that we see in the future that should give you broad confidence on sustaining this performance. And not a lot to add to Bruce's comments about Q4. I would just add on the AUM front that if a team pushes out into next year, it's got a negligible net income impact in the short term. It's basically breakeven in the first year.

我們看到很多交叉融合，這不僅僅是關於發展——重新贏得客戶，現在更是關於向現有的 Citizens 私人銀行特許經營體系進行交叉銷售。因此，我們預計未來將有很多利好因素，這將使您對保持這種業績充滿信心。對於布魯斯對第四季的評論，我沒有什麼要補充的。關於資產管理規模方面，我還要補充一點，如果一支球隊的賽季延續到明年，那麼短期內對淨收入的影響微乎其微。第一年基本收支平衡。

And so really, it's just the headline metric. And if we end up missing by a little bit and it pushes to Q1, it's not going to take us off our financial profile or outlook at all, and we've got a very robust pipeline of talent that has high degrees of interest in joining our wealth platform. So anyway, we still feel good, we've got a real good shot to hit our metrics, and that's about that.

所以實際上，這只是一個表面指標。即使最終我們只差一點點就能完成目標，推遲到第一季度，也不會對我們的財務狀況或前景造成任何影響，而且我們擁有非常強大的人才儲備，他們對加入我們的財富平台有著濃厚的興趣。總之，我們感覺還不錯，很有希望達到我們的指標，大概就是這樣。

Yeah. I would just close with one thought here is that when we initially did the deal, we gave targets out into where we thought we'd be in '24 or the next year and then the year after that being '25. And so it's likely that we'll want to refresh kind of over the next 3-year view, where do we think we can take this business. And I think I've said publicly that the contribution to our bottom line could double theoretically within the next 3-years if we stay on this trajectory. So we have high growth ambitions for the business.

是的。最後我想補充一點，當我們最初達成交易時，我們給出了我們認為在 2024 年或第二年，以及再下一年（即 2025 年）會達到的目標。因此，我們可能需要重新審視未來三年的發展方向，思考我們可以將這項業務發展到什麼程度。而且我認為我曾公開表示，如果我們保持這種發展勢頭，未來 3 年內，我們利潤的貢獻理論上可以翻倍。因此，我們對公司的發展抱持著很高的成長目標。

But at the same time, we want to run it profitably and sustain that ROE in the 20% to 25% range. So I think this business ultimately will occupy some of the white space that First Republic created when they went under. But we'll do it and I think the 2.0 version is going to be even better given the totality of what Citizens offers with a solid commercial bank.

但同時，我們希望實現盈利，並將淨資產收益率維持在 20% 到 25% 的範圍內。所以我認為，這家企業最終將填補第一共和銀行倒閉後留下的一些市場空缺。但我們會做到，而且我認為考慮到 Citizens 作為一家實力雄厚的商業銀行所提供的全方位服務，2.0 版本將會更好。

I think we can be in a position to really be the bank for successful people and entrepreneurs and kind of across all industry realms, PEVC and as commercial real estate and other sector. So that's what we're aiming for, and I think we're really on the way to achieving that.

我認為我們有能力成為成功人士和企業家的真正銀行，服務範圍涵蓋所有行業領域，包括私募股權和風險投資、商業房地產以及其他行業。這就是我們的目標，我認為我們正在朝著這個目標穩步前進。

Well, it all sounded good guys. I really appreciate that. Maybe just one last quick one. On Slide 22, I noticed you dropped your Fed funds range here by 25 bps, but you still kept the range -- the margin range intact the 3.25%, 3.50%. I know it seems like a small change, but the sensitivity of that the 3.25% to 3.50% is something investors have been asking about quite a bit.

聽起來都不錯啊。我非常感謝。或許就最後快速來一次吧。在第 22 張投影片中，我注意到您將聯邦基金利率區間下調了 25 個基點，但您仍然保持了利率區間——保證金區間保持不變，為 3.25%、3.50%。我知道這看起來只是一個很小的變化，但投資者一直在詢問 3.25% 到 3.50% 之間的敏感度。

So I thought this was a positive that you reduced that the Fed funds, but you kept the margin range. So what kept the range the same? And then if you could give any color on the sensitivity of that range to Fed funds changes, that would be great.

所以我認為降低聯邦基金利率是件好事，但你又維持了利率區間。那麼是什麼因素導致射程不變呢？如果您還能就該利率區間對聯邦基金利率變動的敏感度提供一些見解，那就太好了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, sure. And so over time, we've been layering in hedges to protect the kind of downside if the Fed cuts rates more aggressively. And so that's been a focal point. But again, we don't want to be wrong. We don't want to just concern ourselves with kind of the Fed cutting more aggressively because we still have a lot of inflation, and we could stay sticky high.

當然可以。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們一直在逐步增加對沖措施，以防範聯準會更積極降息可能帶來的下行風險。所以，這成為了關注的焦點。但我們還是不想犯錯。我們不想只關注聯準會是否會更積極地降息，因為通膨仍然很高，通膨可能會持續居高不下。

And so we haven't -- we've kept kind of a balanced view as to let's put those hedges on opportunistically when we see little spikes. And so over time, if you look back over the six quarters, I think we've increasingly solidified our view that we can sustain that calm at 3.25% to 3.50% kind of at lower Fed funds rates down to 2.75%.

因此，我們一直保持著一種平衡的觀點，即當我們看到小幅波動時，就抓住機會進行對沖。因此，回顧過去六個季度，我認為我們越來越確信，即使聯邦基金利率降至 2.75%，我們也能將利率維持在 3.25% 至 3.50% 的穩定水平。

Even, I'd like to say, down to 2.5%, given the direction of travel potentially with Feds. And so we're working on that. But anyway, it's good to spot that because to bring that down to 2.75% to 3.75%, I think, is progress and how we're trying to position ourselves from an interest rate risk management standpoint.

甚至，考慮到聯邦政府可能採取的行動方向，我認為可以降至 2.5%。所以我們正在努力解決這個問題。但無論如何，注意到這一點是件好事，因為將利率降至 2.75% 至 3.75% 我認為是一種進步，也是我們從利率風險管理角度努力定位自己的方式。

Ebrahim Poonawala.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉。

Hey, good morning. Just as a follow-up on the -- very quick on the sensitivity of the Fed funds to the margin. Bruce, you talked about the 10-year having coming down took -- has taken out some win from the back book repricing, is there a level that you're watching on the 10-year where it really begins to sort of hurt that [3.25%] medium-term sort of margin outlook that we should be aware of?

嘿，早安。作為對先前關於聯準會基金利率對利率敏感性的快速補充說明。Bruce，你提到 10 年期公債殖利率下降，抵銷了部分後期債券重新定價帶來的收益。你認為 10 年期公債殖利率應該達到哪個水平，才會真正開始損害我們預期的 [3.25%] 中期利潤率前景？

No. like -- so one of the other changes that you may not have noted, was down in that footnote around a 10-year range. We've also moved that lower, being reflective of kind of where the 10-year is out the window. I think our view still is that we stay kind of between [4 and 4.5] and that the curve will stay steep as the Fed cuts. So that's kind of the house view.

不，例如——你可能沒有註意到的另一個變化，在腳註中大約提到了 10 年的時間跨度。我們也降低了這個數值，這反映出 10 年期公債殖利率已經不再適用。我認為我們仍然認為利率應該保持在 [4 到 4.5] 之間，隨著聯準會降息，利率曲線將保持陡峭。這就是房子的大致景色。

The fact is though that we're more sensitive to the short end of the curve and what happens with Fed funds less sensitive to kind of the steepness of the curve, although it can have an impact. But even though we took down that range on a 10-year we've solidified where we are in this comp. That kind of shows you that moving that 4.25% down to 4.15% didn't have much of an impact. And so we'll see where things go. I'd be surprised if we get kind of meaningfully below 4%.

但事實是，我們對短期利率曲線和聯邦基金利率的走勢更為敏感，而對利率曲線的陡峭程度則較不敏感，儘管陡峭程度也會產生影響。但即便我們降低了 10 年期合約的範圍，我們也鞏固了我們在該競爭中的地位。這說明將 4.25% 降至 4.15% 並沒有產生太大影響。所以，我們拭目以待。如果降幅能顯著低於 4%，我會感到驚訝。

But even if we did, I don't think it has a very significant impact. It can cost us a few basis points. But I think the trajectory with time-based is the predominant driver going forward. And the front book, back book, has been positive. It could be a little less positive, but actually not a big concern at this point.

但即便我們真的這麼做了，我認為也不會產生非常顯著的影響。這可能會讓我們損失幾個基點。但我認為，以時間為基準的發展軌跡是未來發展的主要驅動力。封面和封底的評價都是正面的。情況可能略微不那麼樂觀，但實際上目前這並不是什麼大問題。

That's helpful. And I guess just another one, looking at Slide 20, and I know we get a bigger update in January. But as we think about the onetime costs tied to this reimagining the bank and rearchitecting it. Any sense of just what cost save opportunities are there that could help fund that investment as all of us think about what expense growth could look like next year?

那很有幫助。我猜這只是另一個問題，看看第 20 張投影片，我知道我們將在 1 月迎來更大的更新。但當我們考慮與重新構想銀行和重新建構銀行架構相關的一次性成本時。在我們所有人都在思考明年支出成長可能呈現什麼趨勢的時候，有沒有人了解有哪些節省成本的機會可以幫助為這項投資提供資金？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure. And so if you look back historically, in terms of what were those onetime costs, they tended to be either severance related or consulting to implement some of the ideas or some frictional cost in terms of vendor tear-ups or write-off of technology platforms. I wouldn't expect the kind of one-timers to vary from that bucket.

當然。因此，回顧歷史，就那些一次性成本而言，它們往往要么與遣散費有關，要么與實施某些想法的諮詢費有關，要么與供應商解約或技術平台註銷相關的摩擦成本有關。我不認為那些只做一次的人會和這類人有什麼不同。

And the question is, like what's the pacing on how we're incurring those costs? And then can we make sure we have a list of fast action actionable items that can start to spin up some benefits in year in '26, so we can largely neutralize that.

問題是，我們產生這些成本的速度如何？然後，我們能否確保我們有一個可快速採取行動的行動清單，以便在 2026 年開始產生一些好處，從而在很大程度上抵消這種影響？

So what we tried to do on this slide was really just show you the contours of the exercise. So like we're turning over every rock. We're looking at customer touch points, how we're running the bank, et cetera, et cetera. But then when we bring it back to a financial framework, we're trying to make sure it scales so that ultimately, we achieved meaningful size similar to -- or better than top that we don't go backwards and have a negative impact on kind of '26. And if we do, it's quite mild.

所以，我們在這張投影片上真正想做的，就是向你們展示這個練習的輪廓。就像我們把每塊石頭翻了個底朝天。我們正在研究客戶接觸點、銀行的運作方式等等。但當我們把它帶回財務框架時，我們試圖確保它能夠擴展，以便最終達到與巔峰時期相似或更好的有意義的規模，這樣我們就不會倒退，也不會對 2026 年的情況產生負面影響。即使真的發生了，症狀也相當輕微。

It's modest, I would say. And then that we start to already see some real benefits coming in, in '27 and that kind of really the ship comes in, in '28. So that's kind of the way we're thinking about it. Brendan, you can add some color to that and maybe talk about a couple of the fast action ideas that we're thinking about for 2026.

我覺得它很樸素。然後，我們開始看到一些真正的好處在 2027 年到來，而真正的好日子則在 2028 年到來。所以，我們大概就是這麼考慮的。布倫丹，你可以補充一些細節，也許還可以談談我們正在考慮的 2026 年的一些快速行動方案。

Yeah, sure. So if you bucket our ideas into two categories, I'd sort of broadly describe them as tech and AI-enabled for 50% or so and the other 50% would be less so around tech and AI-enabled and maybe you could categorize them as more traditional in what we would have seen in a project top in the past. But with a longer-term outlook, a more strategic application of those categories.

當然可以。所以，如果把我們的想法分成兩類，我會大致把它們描述為大約 50% 是技術和人工智慧驅動的，而另外 50% 則與技術和人工智慧的關聯性較弱，也許你可以把它們歸類為更傳統的，就像我們過去在專案頂部看到的那樣。但從長遠來看，需要更具策略性地應用這些類別。

So vendor simplification, post-COVID reevaluating our workforce and where we want it to be over the next 5-years and cleaning up our corporate facilities where we can take out some excess seating capacity and strategically restructure, build our culture and have people co-located to move faster, more innovative way. So there's things like that.

因此，我們將簡化供應商，在新冠疫情后重新評估我們的員工隊伍以及未來 5 年我們希望員工隊伍的發展方向，清理我們的公司設施，減少一些多餘的座位，進行戰略重組，建立我們的企業文化，讓員工集中辦公，以更快、更具創新性的方式開展工作。諸如此類的事情還有很多。

The branch network, as an example, we think it's time to position it for long-term net household growth and deposit growth. We have made strong and steady progress, but there's more work to do now that we have better visibility into what post-COVID world will look like for retail banking, we still have a number of branches that are underperforming and can help fund the journey of repositioning the network and densifying in other markets to position for growth.

以分行網路為例，我們認為現在是時候調整其定位，以實現長期淨家庭成長和存款成長了。我們已經取得了強勁而穩定的進展，但現在我們對後疫情時代零售銀行業的發展前景有了更清晰的認識，因此還有更多的工作要做。我們仍然有一些分支機構業績不佳，可以幫助我們為重新定位網路和在其他市場擴大規模以促進成長提供資金。

All of those things we have analyzed and we have enough quick wins there to drop to the bottom line that it can self-fund whatever one-time costs come along with it. When you turn your attention to the tech and AI-enabled initiatives, it will require technology investment, which will be a little bit higher probably than some of our other top programs, just given them the runway of 3-years multiplied by introducing new things like AI, like data and analytics into the ecosystem.

我們已經分析了所有這些因素，並且我們已經找到了足夠的快速見效的方法，可以降低成本，從而能夠自給自足地支付任何一次性費用。當你把注意力轉向科技和人工智慧賦能的計畫時，就需要技術投資，這可能比我們其他一些頂級計畫要高一些，只是因為這些計畫有 3 年的時間，而且引入了人工智慧、數據和分析等新技術到生態系統中，所以需要投入更多資金。

So because we would capitalize that over time and get the benefits over time, those costs are -- you could consider them one time as an investment, but the way you would account for them, they would be linked to the benefits over the 3-year window.

因此，因為我們會隨著時間的推移積累這些資金並隨著時間的推移獲得收益，這些成本——你可以將它們視為一次性投資，但你對它們的核算方式是，它們將與 3 年內的收益掛鉤。

So it allows us to smooth it out and make sure that there's the de minimis J curve on the suite, the portfolio of initiatives that we're going after. And we feel pretty good that we can accomplish that. And certainly, our principal objective is to deliver our 16% to 18% ROE target over the medium term. And this should be accretive to that, not take us in the wrong direction. And so we've engineered the whole program to do just that.

這樣一來，我們就可以使其平滑，並確保我們正在追求的這一系列舉措中存在最低限度的 J 曲線。我們很有信心能夠實現這個目標。當然，我們的主要目標是在中期內實現 16% 至 18% 的 ROE 目標。而這應該要起到促進作用，而不是把我們引向錯誤的方向。因此，我們精心設計了整個程式來實現這一目標。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning. I wanted to check in on the capital markets side. You noted its second best quarter ever, the best third quarter. I understand some deals were pushed from 3Q -- pushed to 3Q from 2Q. But can you talk about the pipeline that you're seeing today, what the outlook looks like going into 4Q and going into next year?

您好，早安。我想了解一下資本市場方面的情況。你提到了該公司有史以來業績第二好的季度，也就是業績最好的第三季。我了解到有些交易從第二季推遲到了第三季。但您能否談談您目前看到的專案儲備情況，以及第四季和明年的前景如何？

Sure. I'll start and flip it to Don. But I think we've seen strength this quarter across the board. So if you look at the major places that we're playing, our bank lending, syndicated lending business has been strong. Our bond business has been strong.

當然。我先開始，然後把麥克風交給唐。但我認為本季各方面都表現強勁。所以，如果你看看我們開展業務的主要領域，你會發現我們的銀行貸款、銀團貸款業務一直表現強勁。我們的債券業務一直表現強勁。

The equities calendar has opened up. So that's been strong. And then M&A activity has picked up. So if you think of those are kind of the four big areas, we're doing well across all four. And I'd say, looking out the conditions that we've gotten used to the uncertainty and some of the headline risk that takes place.

股票交易日曆已開放。所以這方面表現很強。隨後併購活動開始活躍起來。所以，如果你把這四大領域看作是重點，那麼我們在所有這四個領域都做得很好。我想說，考慮到我們已經習慣了不確定性和一些重大風險的情況，我們應該能夠應對。

But market participants are saying this is the new normal and we have to get on with doing business. Having spreads really tight is good for refinancings and pull forward and in that realm. But anyway, we have strong pipelines into Q4, and we feel good about how we're positioned and we can have a sustained period of increased activity, which benefits us relative to peers based on what we've built out in the capital markets.

但市場參與者表示，這就是新常態，我們必須繼續經營。利差非常小有利於再融資和提前還款等業務。但無論如何，我們第四季的業務儲備充足，我們對自身的定位感到滿意，並且能夠保持持續的業務成長，這讓我們相對於同行更有優勢，這得益於我們在資本市場所建立的實力。

So I'll turn it over to Don with that.

那麼接下來就交給唐了。

I don't really know what I can add to that. It was pretty complete. I think the thing as I look back at the third quarter and as I look into the fourth quarter into '26, it's the diversity of the flows. So as Bruce said, we're seeing it across M&A pipeline, bond pipelines, IPO pipelines, equity follow-ons and syndicated finance. The one thing that we haven't really seen, which feels like it's beginning to get going right now is private equity.

我真不知道還能補充什麼。它相當完整。回顧第三季度，展望第四季乃至 2026 年，我認為最重要的是流量的多樣性。正如布魯斯所說，我們在併購交易、債券發行、IPO、股權後續發行和銀團貸款等各個環節都看到了這種情況。我們還沒有真正看到，但現在感覺正在開始發展的領域是私募股權。

Leaning in. I mean you've seen some big private equity megadeals be announced, but the core middle market private equity, [President and I] were at one of the houses yesterday, and they said, Finally, we're starting to see the 2021 vintages begin to get refinanced. So that is not in the pipeline in a significant way.

積極參與。我的意思是，你們已經看到一些大型私募股權巨額交易宣布了，但是核心的中端市場私募股權，[總裁和我]昨天去了一家公司，他們說，終於，我們開始看到 2021 年的股票開始進行再融資了。所以這方面還沒有實質的進展。

And we think that, that could be quite a big opportunity for us as we go forward. But I would just say that -- it's -- as I look back on second quarter, third quarter, in the fourth quarter into '26, we've just got a real diversified flow of business.

我們認為，這對我們未來的發展來說可能是一個相當大的機會。但我只想說——回顧2026年第二季、第三季、第四季度，我們的業務已經真正多元化了。

Remember, we are a middle market investment bank. And we basically make a lot of our money and a lot of our transactional volumes with our core clientele and with our core private equity relationships. And I don't really see it slowing down anytime in the future.

記住，我們是一家中階市場投資銀行。我們的大部分收入和交易量基本上都來自我們的核心客戶和核心私募股權關係。而且我認為這種趨勢在未來一段時間內都不會放緩。

And as Bruce said, I think the backdrop is better than I've seen it in 3- or 4-years just in terms of Washington sentiment liquidity in the marketplace is interest rates. There's a lot of positives out there that should continue to propel the capital markets fee lines.

正如布魯斯所說，我認為就華盛頓的情緒、市場流動性和利率而言，目前的情況比我過去三、四年看到的都要好。目前有許多利多因素，這些因素應該會繼續推動資本市場收費收入的成長。

That's very helpful. And then maybe if I can pivot over to credit. There's a lot of focus on the risks around private credit this quarter. You have a slide at the back where you showed that the exposure is about $3.3 billion. Can you give us some more color on what that exposure looks like and where you see potential risks and what you're broadly seeing there?

那很有幫助。然後也許我可以轉型做信貸業務。本季，市場非常關注私募信貸方面的風險。你們在後面的幻燈片上顯示，風險敞口約為 33 億美元。您能否更詳細地介紹一下這種風險敞口的具體情況，您認為潛在的風險在哪裡，以及您總體上觀察到的情況？

Yeah. Why don't I pick up on that also. So the way we lend to the private credit complex is really through securitization structures. So it's very, very high credit quality with diversified pools of collateral. I haven't looked completely, but I don't think we've had any losses in our private credit pools related to any of the big headline kind of bankruptcies that have happened in terms of the underlying.

是的。為什麼我沒注意到這一點？因此，我們向私人信貸市場提供貸款的方式實際上是透過證券化結構。因此，它的信用品質非常非常高，並且擁有多元化的抵押品池。我還沒有完全調查清楚，但我認為就基礎資產而言，我們的私人信貸池沒有因為任何重大破產事件而遭受損失。

But just think about it, we lend against 100 to 150 different collateral pools of individual credits, and we have very strong structures, very strong protections in terms of covenants collateral kickouts, visibility into the underlying structure.

但想想看，我們以 100 到 150 個不同的個人信貸抵押池為抵押進行貸款，而且我們擁有非常強大的結構，在契約抵押品踢出方面有非常強大的保護措施，對底層結構的可見性也很高。

So we are -- and as you said, it's a very small portion of our overall book, but it's actually one of the highest quality things that we do across the entirety of the commercial bank. So I'm very comfortable with it. And the thing I always look at is are there structural degradations going on in terms of terms and conditions in terms of how people are lending into some of the private credit funds. We haven't seen it.

所以，正如您所說，這在我們整體業務中佔比很小，但實際上是我們整個商業銀行業務中品質最高的業務之一。所以我對此感到非常滿意。我一直關注的是，在人們向一些私人信貸基金放款的條款和條件方面，是否存在結構性惡化。我們還沒見過。

And the structures are holding up pretty well so far. But most of these are 364-day lines. They're pretty short term, so we can adjust the book if we see anything that disturbs us pretty quickly. So --

目前來看，這些建築結構都保持得相當完好。但其中大部分是 364 天的線路。這些計劃都是短期的，所以如果我們發現任何令我們擔憂的事情，我們可以很快地調整計劃。所以--

I would just add that if you look at big categories like subscription line, financing or securitizations or asset-based structures, their kind of lost history is pretty pristine, and they're all investment grade across those three categories. So we're very diligent on who we're kind of lending money to, and we're very diligent around the structures that we feel protect us. So we have a very positive view on credit in that area in those areas.

我還要補充一點，如果你看看認購額度、融資、證券化或資產結構等大類，它們的歷史記錄相當完整，而且這三個類別的評級都達到了投資級。因此，我們在選擇貸款對象時非常謹慎，在建立我們認為能夠保護我們的系統時也非常謹慎。因此，我們對這些地區的信貸狀況持非常樂觀的態度。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥格拉蒂，KBW。

Great, good morning. Bruce, the 16% to 18% RTC over time, does -- I'm trying to connect the re-imagine the Bank benefits to the range that you've previously given. Does this -- do the benefits from this new plan, which will get in January, does that give you a bias to a certain part of the range or perhaps sooner realization? I'm just trying to connect it, too.

太好了，早安。Bruce，隨著時間的推移，RTC 達到 16% 到 18%，確實如此——我正在嘗試將重新構想銀行的好處與你之前給出的範圍聯繫起來。這項新計劃將於一月份實施，其帶來的好處是否會讓您傾向於選擇某個特定範圍，或更早實現？我也只是想把它連結起來。

Yeah. So we're on our way to 16% to 18%, and we're not reliant on the Reimagine the Bank today to get into that range. So to me, the question is how soon do they have meaningful impact, and that should allow us to torque those numbers up a bit. I think it's too early to do that. We're just kind of flashing you the contours of the program. But anyway, I think we'll have more specific color on that when we get to January, and we give you a more fulsome forward outlook.

是的。所以，我們正朝著 16% 到 18% 的目標邁進，我們今天並不依賴「重塑銀行」計畫來實現這一目標。所以對我來說，問題在於它們多久才能產生有意義的影響，而這應該能讓我們稍微提高這些數字。我認為現在這樣做還為時過早。我們只是向你簡單介紹一下這個項目的輪廓。不過，我想到了1月我們會對此有更具體的說明，並為大家帶來更全面的展望。

Okay. So it's additive. I guess it's -- you're not announcing this plan because you're not on track to get it? This is gives you greater confidence that you're going to get there?

好的。所以它是累加的。我猜是因為──你們不公佈這個計畫是因為你們還沒能照計畫實現它？這是否讓你更有信心達成目標？

Right. And then once you get those benefits, then the question is how much will flow straight through versus do you want to reinvest and accelerate the growth rate in private bank and have the flywheel go even faster, which creates positive operating leverage and more PPNR growth. And so you have all those decisions.

正確的。一旦你獲得了這些收益，那麼問題就變成了：有多少收益會直接流入你的口袋，又有多少收益會被重新投資，從而加快私人銀行的增長速度，讓飛輪運轉得更快，進而產生積極的經營槓桿和更多的淨利潤增長。所以你就要做出所有這些決定了。

But I think importantly, if you're improving your cost structure and your cost base and your customer experience, that puts you in a very strong position to have optionality of the things you want to do. So that's how I would think about it, Chris.

但我認為，重要的是，如果你能改善成本結構、成本基礎和客戶體驗，那麼你就能在做你想做的事情方面擁有很大的選擇。克里斯，我也是這麼想的。

Okay. And my follow-up is on just use of capital. You've talked about the earnings contribution of the private bank picking up. The loan growth is picking up. Any other, I guess, near to intermediate term uses of capital, either organic or inorganic that we might need to be thinking about?

好的。我的後續問題是關於資金的使用。您曾提到私人銀行的獲利貢獻正在上升。貸款成長正在加速。我想，還有其他一些接近中期的資本用途，無論是有機資本還是無機資本，是我們需要考慮的嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah. I think the number one is to facilitate the loan growth as it comes back, which we think will continue. We want to grow the business and grow the number of customers that are customers of the bank. And so you saw also we announced a dividend increase when to now get back on a regular cycle of dividend increases. I don't, at this point, see meaningful uses of capital on bolt-ons.

是的。我認為首要任務是促進貸款成長，因為貸款市場正在復甦，我們認為這種復甦勢頭將會持續下去。我們希望發展業務，增加銀行的客戶數量。所以你們也看到了，我們宣布了股息成長，現在要恢復正常的股息成長週期。就目前而言，我認為將資金用於附加組件並沒有有意義的意義。

There's a -- we can look for other M&A boutiques in industry verticals that we have. If we don't think we have full coverage. We can look at doing some interesting tech-oriented acquisitions in the payment space, again, which won't use a huge amount of capital. So there's a good likelihood that we'll continue to be repurchasing our share with the excess capital we're generating. And as I like to say, I still think the stock is cheap, if we continue to execute.

我們可以尋找我們相關行業領域的其他併購精品公司。如果我們認為我們沒有得到全面保障。我們可以考慮在支付領域進行一些有趣的技術導向收購，這不會佔用大量資金。因此，我們很有可能會繼續利用我們產生的盈餘資金回購我們的股票。正如我常說的，如果我們繼續執行既定策略，我仍然認為這支股票很便宜。

We're buyers here at the stock price.

我們就是這個股價的買家。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

John Pancari，Evercore ISI。

Good morning. Just on the expense front. I know you started the ongoing investments in the private bank and teams as well as in the parts of the commercial bank, but also the reimagining initiative. Given all of that, and given where you're running right now in terms of your expense growth, how do you think about the pace of expense growth that's reasonable as we look at 2026?

早安.僅就費用方面而言。我知道您啟動了對私人銀行和團隊以及商業銀行部分業務的持續投資，同時也啟動了重塑計畫。考慮到所有這些因素，以及您目前在支出成長方面的位置，您認為展望 2026 年，合理的支出成長速度是多少？

And if you're unable to give us too much around that, is there a way we could think about the degree of positive operating leverage that's attainable as we look at it because certainly, it's a pretty wide range in terms of some of the projections out there and it could be pretty meaningful as you look at the pace of your revenue growth at this point?

如果您無法提供太多相關信息，我們能否考慮一下在當前情況下可以實現的積極經營槓桿程度？因為就目前的一些預測而言，這個範圍確實相當廣泛，而且考慮到您目前的收入成長速度，這可能意義重大。

Yeah. So again, if you look at this year, we're already back into positive operating leverage territory. And I think we'll continue to see that NIM expansion and NII growth, which really comes without a lot of additional expenses. So that's very accretive to the efficiency ratio improvement and positive operating leverage. Where we have been leaning in on investing expense dollars has been the buildup of the private bank.

是的。所以再說一遍，如果你看看今年的情況，我們已經重新進入了正經營槓桿區間。我認為我們將繼續看到淨利差擴張和淨利息收入成長，而這實際上並沒有帶來很多額外的支出。因此，這非常有利於提高效率比率並產生積極的經營槓桿作用。我們一直以來都將投資支出資金用於建立私人銀行。

So this year, we were running, say, 2.5 to 3 on the core business and then add another 1.5 plus to the Private Bank. And I think investors should feel really good about that. We're getting a great return on those expense dollars.

所以今年，我們的核心業務營運規模大概是 250 到 3 億美元，然後私人銀行業務又增加了 1.5 億美元以上。我認為投資者應該對此感到非常欣慰。我們這些投入的資金獲得了豐厚的回報。

So I think looking out into next year, and I don't want to get into guide because I say we're going to do it in January. But I think we'd have even more positive operating leverage because I think we'll have higher revenue growth for the full year and the expense growth shouldn't be too far off of what we're doing this year. It's just an early glimpse.

所以我覺得展望明年，我不想做任何指導，因為我說我們會在一月做這件事。但我認為我們會有更積極的經營槓桿，因為我認為我們全年的收入成長會更高，而支出成長應該不會比我們今年的水平高出太多。這只是驚鴻一瞥。

Okay, thanks for it, sir. I appreciate that color. It's helpful. And then regarding the margin, I know you -- earlier, you cited a bit tighter commercial spreads that had impacted the margin performance and your outlook a bit here. Can you maybe elaborate a little bit where are you seeing that tightening and what areas is it?

好的，謝謝您，先生。我喜歡這個顏色。這很有幫助。至於利潤率，我知道你之前提到過，商業價差收窄對利潤率表現和你的前景產生了一定影響。您能否詳細說明一下，您感覺到的緊繃感是在哪裡出現的，具體是哪些區域？

What competitors are you seeing that is driving that pressure? Is it more temporary? Or do you think there's a degree of permanence to this that's going to require a reaction out of you?

您認為哪些競爭對手為您帶來了這種壓力？這只是暫時的嗎？還是你認為這件事有某種永久性，需要你做出反應？

No. I think what -- if you look at the broad markets at every credit index we're tightening across the board. And the good news is that, that's reflective of lots of liquidity in the marketplace, but it's putting a little bit of pressure on refinancing.

不。我認為——如果你看看各個信貸指數的整體市場，你會發現我們正在全面收緊信貸。好消息是，這反映出市場流動性充足，但這也為再融資帶來了一些壓力。

And as we think about returns in terms of the customers that we're banking, we, of course, focus on return on credit allocation, but we look at overall returns on relationships and you add in what Brendan has done on the Private Bank is just another way that we can kind of interact with the clients that we're banking.

當我們考慮我們所服務客戶的回報時，我們當然會關注信貸分配的回報，但我們也會關注客戶關係的整體回報。此外，Brendan 在私人銀行所做的一切，也為我們與客戶互動提供了另一種方式。

So the real strategy that we've tried to build over the last 10-years has been one of broad-based financial services applications where we can make a combination of fee income and NII on the commercial side of the equation.

因此，過去 10 年來，我們一直努力建立的真正策略是廣泛的金融服務應用，我們可以在商業方面獲得手續費收入和淨利息收入的結合。

And I think that, that's proven to be quite effective. If you look at our overall returns on our client relationships, they're going up quite a bit. So if we're giving a little bit back on spread here and there, we're making it up on fee income. And you can see that in some of the results that we've been doing. But I think it's -- I don't see that equation changing a lot over the next year or two.

我認為這已被證明是相當有效的。如果你看一下我們與客戶關係的整體回報，你會發現它們正在大幅成長。所以，即使我們在某些​​方面讓步，我們也可以透過手續費收入彌補回來。從我們的一些研究結果可以看出這一點。但我認為──我看不出未來一兩年內這種局面會有太大改變。

There's a lot of liquidity, and I think spreads are going to remain tight, and we just got to pick our spots and make sure that we generate broad returns across the relationships that we're trying to bank.

市場流動性充足，我認為利差會保持收窄，我們只需要選擇合適的時機，確保在我們試圖建立的各種關係中獲得廣泛的回報。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Good morning. This is Nate Stein on behalf of Matt O'Connor. Wanted to ask a quick follow-up on the cost base. Costs were really right in line with the guidance range this quarter despite a really solid fee print. Were there any specific flexes -- you engaged during the quarter to keep costs relatively well managed?

早安.我是內特·斯坦，代表馬特·奧康納。想快速確認一下成本構成。儘管本季收費情況非常穩健，但成本與預期範圍基本一致。本季您是否採取了任何具體的靈活措施來有效控製成本？

No, I would say that you can count on us to be disciplined on expenses. And so we're still driving. We're now pivoting all the attention to reimagine the bank, but we still have our top 10 program that is gaining traction and ramping up some benefits.

不，我可以肯定地說，我們會嚴格控制開支。所以我們還在開車。我們現在正將全部精力轉移到重新構想銀行，但我們仍然保留著十大項目，這些項目正在取得進展並逐步帶來一些好處。

And so notwithstanding strong capital markets, and we put away a little more in compensation. We're still kind of trying to excise expenses through the top program that we can repurpose for kind of more customer-facing investments.

因此，儘管資本市場強勁，我們還是多存了一些錢作為補償。我們仍在努力透過最重要的項目來削減開支，以便將節省的資金重新用於更多面向客戶的投資。

And when we see the productivity results that we're getting that we have to put away more compensation, we can offset that with some of the things through these top efficiency programs.

當我們看到生產力提升帶來的結果，需要投入更多資金用於薪酬時，我們可以透過這些高效的計劃來彌補一些損失。

Thank you. And then just following up on the re-imagine the Bank program. I totally appreciate we're going to get more financial details in January, but I guess, I just wanted to ask on your confidence in the $400 million plus total run rate benefit over time?

謝謝。然後，我們繼續跟進「重塑銀行」計劃。我完全理解我們會在1月份獲得更多財務細節，但我只是想問您對4億美元以上的長期總收益有多大信心？

Well, I would say if you learned anything about this leadership team over the past decade, we don't throw numbers out there that we don't think we can achieve. So we're pretty darn confident.

我想說，如果你了解過去十年我們這個領導團隊的任何事情，就會知道我們不會提出我們認為無法實現的目標。所以我們相當有信心。

Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.

彼得溫特，D.A.戴維森。

Thanks. Good morning. So nice to see average loan growth turned positive this quarter. I was just wondering, could you provide some additional color on the drivers to loan growth going forward and maybe how loan demand has changed over the last 90 days?

謝謝。早安.很高興看到本季平均貸款成長率轉正。我想請問，您能否詳細介紹一下未來貸款成長的驅動因素，以及過去 90 天貸款需求的變化？

Yeah. So I think you've now seen two quarters in a row where we've achieved net loan growth, meaning we've had growth in consumer. We've had growth in commercial. We've had growth in Private Bank, and that is offsetting reductions in non-core as well as some balance sheet optimization in the C&I book in CRE where we're seeing some meaningful paydown. So anyway, that's good to see.

是的。所以我認為你們已經連續兩個季度看到我們實現了淨貸款成長，這意味著我們的消費業務也實現了成長。我們在商業領域取得了成長。私人銀行業務有所增長，這抵消了非核心業務的減少，以及商業和工業貸款業務在商業房地產方面的一些資產負債表優化，我們看到了一些實質性的還款。總之，這很好。

And I think over time, the noncore is waning, so that will be less of a drag. I think the C&I will be lower going forward. We've done a lot of that balance sheet optimization. CRE, we're still managing that down to get kind of back to the playing weight that we'd like to play at. But I think there's still good dynamics around consumer, commercial and private bank that will lead to continued growth.

而且我認為隨著時間的推移，非核心業務會逐漸減少，因此這方面的拖累也會減少。我認為未來工商業活動將會減少。我們已經做了很多資產負債表優化工作。CRE，我們仍在努力降低體重，以恢復到我們理想的比賽體重。但我認為，消費者銀行、商業銀行和私人銀行領域仍然存在著良好的發展勢頭，這將帶來持續成長。

And the amount will depend on kind of what we see in the external environment. On consumer, it's been really led by mortgage and HELOCs. HELOC has been the shining star. We have some hope in the future for card loan growth to pick up now that we've launched a whole new card family. We might be a little more selective in mortgage and not continue to use our balance sheet as much all kind of restrict it more for important relationship customers and focus more on conforming.

具體金額將取決於我們在外部環境中觀察到的情況。在消費領域，抵押貸款和房屋淨值信用額度貸款（HELOC）確實起到了領導作用。房屋淨值貸款一直是市場上的耀眼明星。鑑於我們推出了全新的信用卡系列，我們對未來信用卡貸款成長有所期待。我們可能會在抵押貸款方面更加挑剔一些，不再像以前那樣大量使用資產負債表，而是更多地將其用於重要的關係客戶，並更加專注於符合標準的貸款。

So anyway, that's a tactical shift that you could see going forward. Commercial, we've seen a lot of growth in the NBFI space, but we still are investing in middle market to achieve growth in some of our expansion regions.

總之，這是未來可能會出現的戰術轉變。在商業領域，我們看到非銀行金融機構領域取得了很大的成長，但我們仍然在投資中端市場，以實現我們一些擴張地區的成長。

We could consider New York and expansion region, but also Florida and California, where we've added some really great talent, and we're starting to see that spin up a little bit and achieve some growth. And Private Bank is kind of very consistent now. We have a bunch of penetration in the PEVC space.

我們可以考慮紐約和周邊地區，也可以考慮佛羅裡達和加利福尼亞，我們在那裡吸收了一些非常優秀的人才，並且開始看到這些地區逐漸發展壯大，並取得一些成長。私人銀行業務現在相當穩定。我們在PEVC領域擁有相當多的滲透率。

This past quarter, we saw a pickup in line utilization. We're starting to see the individual customers come in and borrow for greater mortgages and HELOCs and some of the similar dynamics that we're seeing on the consumer side. So anyway, I think we're well positioned to capture growth across all of those three segments, and we'll have less of an offset coming from non-core in the future.

上個季度，我們看到生產線利用率有所提高。我們開始看到個人客戶前來借貸更多抵押貸款和房屋淨值信用額度，以及我們在消費者方面看到的一些類似動態。總之，我認為我們已經做好充分準備，能夠在所有這三個領域中成長，未來非核心業務帶來的抵銷作用也會越來越小。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just one follow-up. Just credit continues to trend favorably, but economic growth is slowing, job growth has been weakening. Are you seeing any signs of credit weakness in either the consumer or within the commercial borrowing base?

知道了。那很有幫助。然後只有一次後續跟進。信貸情勢依然良好，但經濟成長放緩，就業成長疲軟。您是否發現消費者或商業借貸基礎中存在任何信用疲軟的跡象？

I'll put that to Brendan first and Don second.

我先問布倫丹，再問唐。

I'll just start with the mix of the portfolio and our NCO rate, you should expect it to continue to go down in the consumer business in part with the noncore running down and auto has a higher loss rate than the rest of the consumer portfolio. Consumer portfolio is in the high 40s at the moment in terms of basis points for loss rate. Auto historically has been in the 70 basis points to 80 basis points range. So as that windles down, the denominator strength, so you should see losses come down overall. Inside of each category, NCOs are very stable, delinquencies are very stable.

我先從投資組合的組合和我們的非核心業務比率說起，你應該會預期消費業務的比率會繼續下降，部分原因是非核心業務的下滑，而且汽車業務的損失率高於消費業務組合的其他部分。目前，消費者投資組合的損失率約為 40 多個基點左右。汽車產業的歷史利率一直徘徊在 70 個基點到 80 個基點之間。因此，隨著這種情況逐漸減弱，分母強度也會減弱，所以你應該會看到整體損失下降。在每個類別中，NCO（非委任軍官）非常穩定，違規行為也非常穩定。

I would broadly just characterize it as fully normalized from COVID. In the card book as an example, that many of our peers saw to the 21 and 22 vintages had a little bit of a short-term blip with FICO inflation coming off of the stimulus impact with COVID. That has generally run its course. You're seeing delinquency rates actually come down in our card book. Right now, it's a smaller part of the portfolio, so it didn't show up in mass in terms of our total net delinquency rates or charge-off rates.

我大致會將其描述為完全擺脫了新冠疫情的影響，恢復了正常生活。以信用卡為例，許多同業都認為 21 和 22 年的信用卡在新冠疫情刺激措施的影響下，由於 FICO 通膨，出現了一些短期波動。這種情況通常已經過去了。您可以看到，我們信用卡帳簿上的逾期率實際上正在下降。目前，這部分貸款在我們的投資組合中佔比較小，因此在我們的總淨違約率或核銷率中沒有大量反映出來。

But there's nothing I'm looking at right now that gives me any pause. When I look at the health of the actual US consumer, it's also very, very stable. You have to really deaverage it to see stress in the lower end of the market in the bottom two to three deciles in the United States where you're seeing both deposit stress, you're seeing some increased overdraft occurrences and where they have credit, you're seeing modest credit stress. We just don't typically lend to those customers.

但我現在看到的一切都沒有讓我感到任何猶豫。從美國消費者的實際健康狀況來看，它也非常非常穩定。你必須真正去平均化，才能看到美國市場低端（最底層的 2% 到 3% 的人群）的壓力，在那裡，你會看到存款壓力，你會看到透支情況有所增加，而且在他們有信用的情況下，你會看到輕微的信用壓力。我們通常不會向這類客戶提供貸款。

So it's not in our portfolio. So there is some tail risk, but not -- that doesn't exist in our bank at scale. So we feel really good. I don't see anything right now that would suggest even really a blip in terms of consumer credit right now for us.

所以它不在我們的投資組合中。所以存在一些尾部風險，但這種風險——在我們的銀行大規模運營中並不存在。我們感覺非常好。就目前而言，我沒有看到任何跡象表明消費者信貸方面會出現任何真正的波動。

Yeah. And I would echo that on the commercial side. I mean, other than CRE office, which you know our story, and we're very well reserved and we're very comfortable. And we've seen almost no migration on that side of the equation in the last year, 1.5 years. So we're well kind of positioned for how we work out that book of business.

是的。在商業方面，我也同意這種說法。我的意思是，除了 CRE 辦公室之外，您也知道我們的故事，我們非常謹慎，也感到非常自在。在過去一年到一年半的時間裡，我們幾乎沒有看到這方面的任何遷移。所以，我們已經做好了充分的準備來處理這部分業務。

We're seeing really no deterioration on the C&I side at all. And I think one of the things that's been encouraging to me is that our you hear a lot in the press about middle market companies and the impact of tariffs and the impact of employment and things like that.

我們看到工商業方面完全沒有出現任何惡化跡象。令我感到鼓舞的一點是，我們在媒體上經常聽到關於中型市場公司、關稅的影響、就業的影響等等方面的報導。

But these companies have been operating ever since COVID in a very difficult environment and is running their businesses in a really professional way, and they've deleveraged, they've got working capital efficient, and we're just seeing no deterioration on the credit side at all.

但自從新冠疫情爆發以來，這些公司一直在非常艱難的環境下運營，並且以非常專業的方式經營業務，它們降低了槓桿率，提高了營運資金效率，我們根本沒有看到信貸方面出現任何惡化。

So we have a lot of early indicators around watch meetings and things moving into workout and everything looks stable from the 6-month to 12-month out forecasting. So we feel very good about the contours of our book overall.

因此，我們有許多關於觀察會議和相關事宜進入調整階段的早期跡象，從未來 6 個月到 12 個月的預測來看，一切似乎都很穩定。所以我們對我們這本書的整體框架感到非常滿意。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Good morning, Bruce.

早安，布魯斯。

Hey Gerard.

嘿，傑拉德。

Don, just a follow-up on your comments about credit. Two-part question. You answered earlier about the private credit, how you're looking at the structural degradations and there really aren't any. Are there any other points that we outsiders can look to, since private credit is growing rapidly as you all know, that we can keep an eye on to see if there is any credit potential credit deterioration coming, even though it's -- we recognize it's held up well, you guys don't have any real issues with it as well?

唐，關於你之前提到的信用問題，我還有一些補充。問題分為兩部分。您之前回答過關於私人信貸的問題，您是如何看待結構性惡化的，但實際上並沒有任何結構性惡化。鑑於大家都知道私人信貸發展迅速，我們這些局外人還可以關注哪些方面，以觀察是否有任何潛在的信貸惡化跡象？儘管我們知道它目前表現良好，你們這邊似乎也沒有什麼真正的問題。

Yeah. I would say you see a lot of the filings that all the different credit companies provide. And there's a bankruptcy here and a bankruptcy there. And what I would say in terms of the way we manage the business is we have pretty strong visibility into the underlying contours of the individual portfolios. And it seems okay broadly to us so far.

是的。我想說，你會看到很多不同信貸公司提供的備案文件。這裡破產一樁，那裡破產一樁。就我們的業務管理方式而言，我想說的是，我們對各個投資組合的底層結構有著非常清楚的了解。目前看來整體還可以。

But I would look at the 10-Ks and the regulatory filings. And the BDC is going to be different than the private credit funds is going to be different than a PET situations fund, and you know that throughout. I mean, all of the different kind of attachment points for each of these complex is going to be quite different from an LTV standpoint and a valuation standpoint. So it's really hard to generalize. And as Bruce said before, we try to pick our counterparts very carefully.

但我會查看 10-K 表格和監管文件。BDC 與私人信貸基金不同，也與 PET 情況基金不同，這一點你一直都知道。我的意思是，從貸款價值比和估值角度來看，這些複雜結構的各種連接點都會有很大的不同。所以很難一概而論。正如布魯斯之前所說，我們會非常謹慎地挑選合作夥伴。

They're professional investors. A lot of them are both in the equity side and the debt side of different equations. They usually don't mix those two involvements, but they're very strong analytical kind of complexes, which we have a lot of complex confidence in, and that's the way we pick our client base. we wouldn't go in broadly and buy private credit across the board, but that's not the business we're in. So I would pay attention to the filings and the -- some of them are more complete than others, but we look at them all.

他們是專業投資者。它們中的許多既屬於不同等式中的權益方，也屬於債務方。他們通常不會將這兩種業務混為一談，但他們擁有非常強大的分析能力，我們對這種能力充滿信心，這也是我們選擇客戶群的方式。我們不會大規模收購所有類型的私募信貸，因為那不是我們的業務。所以我會關注這些備案文件，有些文件比其他文件更完整，但我們會全部查看。

So that's the only advice I'd give you, Gerard.

這就是我唯一想給你的建議，傑拉德。

No, no, I appreciate it. And then possibly for you, Bruce. This administration has shown that when they say something, they follow through on it. And our Treasury Secretary about 2-months ago, Scott Bessent said that this country has got a housing emergency. And aside from the actual structure of building more houses, reducing regulations, putting that off to the side for a moment.

不，不，我很感激。或許對你來說也是如此，布魯斯。本屆政府已經表明，他們說到做到。大約兩個月前，我們的財政部長史考特‧貝森特表示，這個國家正面臨住房危機。撇開建造更多房屋、減少監管的實際結構不談，我們暫且把這個問題放在一邊。

From the financing side, mortgage rates obviously are much higher today than they were 4-years ago. What do you think they could do, Bruce, to lower mortgage -- without moving the government bond yield curve down, which I don't think they can do.

從融資角度來看，如今的抵押貸款利率顯然比 4 年前高得多。布魯斯，你認為他們可以採取什麼措施來降低抵押貸款利率——而不降低政府債券殖利率曲線，我認為他們做不到這一點。

But that spread today between mortgage rates and government bond rates is pretty wide, over 200 basis points. Do you have any thoughts on what they might be able to do to try to bring that down, which would then lead to refinancing activity for you guys and mortgage originations?

但如今抵押貸款利率和政府債券利率之間的利差相當大，超過 200 個基點。您認為他們可能會採取哪些措施來降低利率，從而促進您們的再融資活動和抵押貸款發放？

Well, I think they're thinking about this holistically that there's an affordability issue, which is at the root of why the market is tepid. And so housing prices have run up too much, and there's kind of new supply constraints in terms of regulation. So there's all of that to deal with. And then I think that spread, do they through their quantitative tightening do they -- what's the strategy around mortgages is one lever that they have to pull. But it's kind of a thorny problem.

我認為他們是從整體上考慮這個問題的，那就是價格承受能力的問題，而這正是市場低迷的根本原因。因此，房價上漲過高，監管方面也出現了新的供應限制。所以，我們需要處理所有這些問題。然後我認為，他們能否透過量化緊縮來控制利差——抵押貸款策略是他們必須採取的手段之一。但這卻是一個棘手的問題。

It's nice to talk about it. I'm not -- I'll be curious to see when they unveil if this is really a national crisis that we have to deal with, what the plan is when it comes down the pike. We're not counting on ultimately a big lift in our mortgage business.

談論這件事感覺​​真好。我不是——我很想知道他們什麼時候會公佈這是否真的是一場我們必須應對的國家危機，以及接下來的計劃是什麼。我們並不指望抵押貸款業務最終會大幅成長。

We like refocused the business to use our capital to support good customers in their life journey and giving them mortgages that we have broader relationships with. So I think the days, if you go back to in 2019 after we bought Franklin and when rates came down, and we coined all this money.

我們希望重新調整業務方向，利用我們的資本來支持優質客戶的人生旅程，並為他們提供我們與他們有更廣泛關係的抵押貸款。所以我覺得，如果你回顧一下 2019 年我們收購富蘭克林之後，利率下降，我們賺了很多錢的日子。

It was a bit of a sugar high. It felt good. It protected capital generated capital. We didn't really get credit for it as a sustainable earnings driver. So I'd say where we are today is that, that business has been rightsized, repurposed, feel really good about how we're running it, good Net Promoter Scores, efficient, always room for improvement.

當時血糖有點飆升。感覺很好。它保護了資本所創造的資本。我們並沒有因此獲得應有的認可，認為它是一種可持續的獲利驅動因素。所以我覺得我們目前的情況是，這項業務已經調整到合適的規模，重新定位，我們對目前的經營方式感到非常滿意，淨推薦值很高，效率很高，但總有改進的空間。

But it's much more targeted than it was before. If rates come down and there are chances to catch some of the refinancing wave, sure, we'll catch some of it, but it's not going to be in the magnitude it was before. And recognize we also have exited the wholesale business over the last 3-years as well, and that was one of the drivers for why we captured so much upside. So where we're going with the fee reliance is still capital markets. I think we've built the Cadillac among the super regional banks.

但它比以前更有針對性了。如果利率下降，有機會搭上再融資浪潮的順風車，當然，我們肯定能搭上一些順風車，但規模肯定不如以前那麼大了。同時我們也意識到，在過去的三年裡，我們已經退出了批發業務，這也是我們獲得如此巨大收益的原因之一。所以，我們依賴費用的最終目標仍然是資本市場。我認為我們已經在超級區域銀行中打造了凱迪拉克。

And so we should continue to see strong growth there over time. We have a really good risk management business and our FX interest rate and commodities hedging business. So we have a wealth business that just hit another record high this quarter.

因此，我們應該會看到該領域隨著時間的推移繼續保持強勁成長。我們的風險管理業務以及外匯利率和商品避險業務都非常出色。我們的財富管理業務在本季又創下了歷史新高。

Every quarter this year, we're hitting record highs as we build out the wealth business. The card business, we've been investing in, there can be growth in card fees. And so we're kind of pivoting to, I think, what are more durable, sustainable maybe a little less volatile fee revenue sources and a bit not as reliant on mortgage.

今年每個季度，隨著我們不斷拓展財富管理業務，我們都創下了歷史新高。我們一直在投資的信用卡業務，信用卡手續費方面還有成長空間。因此，我認為我們正在轉向更持久、更可持續、波動性更小的費用收入來源，並且不太依賴抵押貸款。

Brendan, if you want to add to that?

布倫丹，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah, just a few points. If there's any Washington intervention, I think the challenge is in the purchase market and on the supply side of generating more affordable housing. And if you look at the US homeowner right now, and then apply what's our role as a lender, 74% of the country has interest rates under 5% on their mortgage. And so you'd have to believe a whole lot to have a massive refi pickup here with rates having a six handle on it now and the long-term rate is relatively stable.

是的，就幾點。如果華盛頓方面要幹預，我認為挑戰在於購屋市場以及在供應方面增加更多經濟適用房。如果你看看現在的美國房主，再想想我們作為貸款機構的角色，你會發現，全國 74% 的房主的抵押貸款利率低於 5%。因此，在利率目前處於六倍高位，且長期利率相對穩定的情況下，要想在這裡出現大規模的再融資回升，你必須抱持著很大的希望。

You'd have to really assume a very, very different rate outlook for there to be a huge boom let of refi activity. And so then your attention turns -- and our mix of 17%, 18% of our business is refi right out predominantly purchase volume.

除非利率前景出現非常非常大的差異，否則再融資活動不太可能大幅成長。於是，你的注意力就轉移到了——我們17%到18%的業務是直接進行再融資，主要來自購買量。

And so to unlock that, interest rates will help a little bit, but really, it's got to be the supply side and the affordability of housing and access to new housing that would drive the solve for the issue that Washington is talking about. Bruce mentioned all the other fee categories. The other thing I would just mention is I think from a lender standpoint, we're incredibly well positioned with our HELOC business.

因此，要解決這個問題，利率會起到一定的作用，但實際上，解決華盛頓正在討論的問題，關鍵在於住房的供應、住房的可負擔性和獲得新住房的機會。布魯斯提到了所有其他費用類別。我還要補充一點，我認為從貸款方的角度來看，我們的房屋淨值信用額度業務處於非常有利的地位。

Given that dynamic of 74% of the country has rates below 5%. And if you don't believe, mortgage rates will drop below that anytime soon, we've got a boomlet of HELOC activity where the country has the most equity in the history of the US built up on consumers kind of personal balance sheets and they can tap it. And we're -- we've been number 1 for three or four quarters in a row, including against all the G-SIBs nationally. In HELOC lending, both on balance sheet growth as well as new originations, and we're really only originating in 15 states.

鑑於該國 74% 的地區感染率低於 5%。如果你不相信抵押貸款利率會很快降到那麼低，那麼我們現在正經歷著房屋淨值信用額度（HELOC）的蓬勃發展，美國歷史上積累了最多的房屋淨值，這些淨值都體現在消費者的個人資產負債表上，他們可以動用這些資金。而且我們已經連續三、四個季度排名第一，包括與全國所有 G-SIB 的比賽。在房屋淨值信用額度貸款方面，無論是資產負債表的成長還是新發放的貸款，我們實際上只在 15 個州發放貸款。

So we're -- we've got an incredible competitive advantage there to drive loan growth and high-quality massive and affluent homeowner home growth with high credit and LTVs. So we're looking at this very holistically in terms of where we can compete to win. And our mortgage business is well positioned. We think it's in the same size now as our peers. So even though we've recontoured the business, we haven't given up in the off event that rates do crater, we still are positioned well to capture it in line with peers.

因此，我們擁有巨大的競爭優勢，可以推動貸款成長，並促進信用良好、貸款價值比高的優質、大規模富裕房主住房的成長。所以我們正在從整體上看待這個問題，考慮我們可以在哪些方面競爭並贏得勝利。我們的抵押貸款業務處於有利地位。我們認為它現在的規模與同行相當。因此，即使我們重新調整了業務結構，我們也沒有放棄，萬一利率暴跌，我們仍然能夠像同行一樣抓住機會。

It's just structured a little bit differently than it was for us a couple of years back.

它的結構和我們幾年前的情況略有不同。

I think we have time for one more quick question.

我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

That does come from Ken Usdin. Your line is open.

這確實出自肯·烏斯丁之口。您的線路已開通。

I think we may have lost Ken.

我覺得我們可能失去肯了。

Okay. Sorry, we missed you, Ken, but do dial in and talk to Kristin or Chris later. So I guess that's it. And thanks, everybody, for dialing in today. We certainly appreciate your interest and support.

好的。抱歉，肯，我們錯過了你，但你稍後可以撥通電話和克里斯汀或克里斯聊聊。我想這就是全部內容了。感謝各位今天撥入電話。我們非常感謝您的關注與支持。

Have a good day. Take care.

祝你有美好的一天。小心。

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference call. We appreciate your participation, and you may disconnect. Thank you.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您可以斷開連接了。謝謝。