Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Citizens Financial Group second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Denise, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded.

大家早安，歡迎參加公民金融集團 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫丹尼斯，今天我將擔任您的接線生。（操作員指示）提醒一下，此事件正在被記錄。

Now I will turn the call over to Kristin Silberberg, Head of Investor Relations. Kristin, you may begin.

現在我將電話轉給投資人關係主管克里斯汀‧西爾伯伯格 (Kristin Silberberg)。克里斯汀，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Denise. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, this morning, our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and CFO, John Woods will provide an overview of our second-quarter results. Brendan Coughlin, Head of Consumer Banking; and Don McCree, Head of Commercial Banking, are also here to provide additional color.

謝謝你，丹尼斯。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。首先，今天上午，我們的董事長兼執行長 Bruce Van Saun 和財務長 John Woods 將概述我們的第二季業績。個人銀行業務主管 Brendan Coughlin 和商業銀行業務主管 Don McCree 也將在此提供更多詳細資訊。

We will be referencing our second-quarter presentation located on our Investor Relations website. After the presentation, we will be happy to take questions. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. These are outlined for your review in the presentation.

我們將參考投資者關係網站上的第二季簡報。演講結束後，我們很樂意回答問題。我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期有重大差異。這些內容已在簡報中概述，供您審閱。

We also reference non-GAAP financial measures. So it's important to review our GAAP results in the presentation and the reconciliation in the appendix.

我們也參考了非公認會計準則財務指標。因此，審查簡報中的 GAAP 結果和附錄中的對帳非常重要。

And with that, I'll hand over to Bruce.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給布魯斯。

Thanks, Kristin, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call today. We announced strong financial results today that exceeded expectations, notwithstanding tremendous uncertainty in the macro environment during the quarter.

謝謝，克里斯汀，大家早安。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。儘管本季宏觀環境存在巨大的不確定性，但我們今天公佈的財務業績仍然強勁，超出了預期。

Highlights include strong NII growth of 3.3% sequential quarter, [paced] by NIM expansion of 5 basis points, and the resumption of net loan growth across consumer, private bank, and commercial; good fee growth of 10%, which was paced by wealth, card, and mortgage; good expense discipline with expenses broadly flat, resulting in 500 basis points of operating leverage; and credit trends remaining favorable and continued meaningful share repurchases.

亮點包括：淨利息收入 (NII) 環比增長 3.3%，[受] 淨利息收入 (NIM) 擴大 5 個基點的帶動，以及消費者、私人銀行和商業銀行淨貸款增長的恢復；費用增長良好，達到 10%，受財富、信用卡和抵押貸款的帶動；良好的費用有意義，費用增長良好，導致 10%，受財富、信用卡和抵押貸款的帶動；

It's worth noting that capital markets still manage to have a pretty good quarter, notwithstanding the uncertainty in the environment. Our diversity helped as strengthened equity underwriting and loan syndications offset weaker debt capital markets and a delay in the completion of several significant M&A deals. We expect that we will record over $30 million in fees on these deals in July, and our pipelines remain strong, setting us up well for the second half.

值得注意的是，儘管環境存在不確定性，但資本市場本季仍表現良好。我們的多元化有助於加強股權承銷和貸款銀團，抵消債務資本市場的疲軟以及幾項重大併購交易完成的延遲。我們預計 7 月這些交易的費用收入將超過 3,000 萬美元，而且我們的業務管道依然強勁，為下半年做好了準備。

Our balance sheet remains rock solid across capital, liquidity, funding, and our credit reserve position. We continue to execute well on our strategic initiatives. The private bank has strong growth in loans and AUM, with average deposits up nicely, but spot deposits impacted somewhat by the timing of inflows and outflows.

我們的資產負債表在資本、流動性、融資和信貸儲備狀況方面依然保持穩固。我們繼續良好地執行我們的策略性舉措。該私人銀行的貸款和資產管理規模增長強勁，平均存款增長良好，但現貨存款受到流入和流出時間的影響。

We remain on track to hit all full-year targets. The business is on track to deliver in excess of 5% accretion to Citizen's bottom line and a 20%-plus ROE in 2025. In addition, efforts across New York City Metro, Private Capital, Payments, and BSO are all tracking well.

我們仍有望實現所有全年目標。該業務預計在 2025 年為西鐵城帶來超過 5% 的利潤成長和超過 20% 的股本回報率。此外，紐約市地鐵、私人資本、支付和 BSO 的努力都進展順利。

We've commenced work on a project we are calling Reimagining the Bank, which will be led by Brendan and other top leaders. The objective is to redesign how we serve customers and run the bank, taking advantage of new technologies like GenAI and agentic AI. This requires changes to our organizational model, our underlying technology and data architecture, and imparting new skills to our colleague base. It will be multi-year in nature and ultimately serve as our next top program. Stay tuned for more details later in the year.

我們已經開始實施一項名為「重塑銀行」的項目，該項目將由布倫丹和其他高層領導領導。我們的目標是利用 GenAI 和 agentic AI 等新技術重新設計我們服務客戶和營運銀行的方式。這需要改變我們的組織模式、底層技術和資料架構，並向我們的同事傳授新技能。它將持續多年，並最終成為我們的下一個頂級項目。請繼續關註今年稍後的更多詳細資訊。

With respect to the second half, we believe that economic conditions and markets are trending favorable, though further machinations around tariffs continue to present a degree of uncertainty. Rather fortunately, the fundamentals to drive higher deal activity and a pick-up in loan demand remain intact, and we feel well positioned to capture the opportunity and to deliver good results.

對於下半年，我們認為經濟狀況和市場趨勢良好，儘管圍繞關稅的進一步行動仍然存在一定程度的不確定性。幸運的是，推動交易活動增加和貸款需求回升的基本面依然完好，我們認為自己有能力抓住機會並取得良好業績。

We remain comfortable with the full-year guide for 2025 we gave back in January. And we're well positioned to sustain that momentum into the medium term.

我們對 1 月份給出的 2025 年全年指南仍然感到滿意。我們已做好準備，在中期內保持這一勢頭。

In short, we feel good about our positioning overall from a strategic, business, and financial standpoint. We will stay focused on execution and the things we can control as we continue our efforts towards building a distinctive, great bank.

簡而言之，從策略、業務和財務的角度來看，我們對我們的整體定位感到滿意。我們將繼續專注於執行和我們能夠控制的事情，努力打造一家與眾不同的偉大銀行。

With that, let me turn it over to John.

說完這些，讓我把它交給約翰。

Thanks, Bruce, and good morning, everyone. As Bruce mentioned, we delivered strong second-quarter results with really good revenue performance and disciplined expense management, resulting in positive sequential operating leverage of about 5%. We saw lending begin to pick up during the quarter with net growth across commercial, consumer, and private banks, more than offsetting our non-core [rundown].

謝謝，布魯斯，大家早安。正如布魯斯所提到的，我們第二季度取得了強勁的業績，收入表現非常好，費用管理也很嚴格，從而實現了約 5% 的連續正營運槓桿。我們看到本季貸款開始回升，商業銀行、消費者銀行和私人銀行的淨成長足以抵銷我們的非核心[減少]。

Referencing slides 5 and 6, we delivered EPS of $0.92 for the second quarter, a $0.15 or 19% improvement over Q1. Net interest income from the quarter was up 3.3% driven by margin expansion and interest earning asset growth.

參考投影片 5 和 6，我們第二季的每股盈餘為 0.92 美元，比第一季提高了 0.15 美元或 19%。受利潤率擴大和生息資產成長的推動，本季淨利息收入成長 3.3%。

Fees were up significantly linked quarter. Wealth and card fees were a record for the quarter, and capital markets showed modest growth despite market uncertainty, which resulted in several meaningful M&A deals pushing into July.

費用與上季相比大幅上漲。本季財富和信用卡費用創下新高，儘管市場存在不確定性，但資本市場仍呈現溫和成長，導致幾筆有意義的併購交易推遲到 7 月。

Mortgage also increased largely due to an improvement in MSR evaluation. Expenses were well managed, and net charge offs came in as expected.

由於 MSR 評估的提高，抵押貸款也大幅增加。費用管理良好，淨沖銷額符合預期。

With respect to our balance sheet, we continue to maintain robust capital, strong liquidity levels, and a healthy credit reserve. We ended the quarter with CET1 at 10.6% while also executing $200 million in stock buybacks during the quarter.

就我們的資產負債表而言，我們繼續保持強勁的資本、強勁的流動性水準和健康的信貸儲備。本季末，我們的 CET1 為 10.6%，同時在本季也執行了 2 億美元的股票回購。

And importantly, we are executing well against our key strategic initiatives paced by continued momentum in our private bank and private wealth buildout. The private bank continues to steadily grow its profitability, contributing $0.06 to EPS this quarter, up from $0.04 in the prior quarter, and we delivered our strongest quarter of loan growth so far, adding $1.2 billion in loans.

重要的是，隨著私人銀行和私人財富建設的持續發展，我們的關鍵策略措施執行得很好。私人銀行的獲利能力繼續穩步增長，本季度每股收益貢獻為 0.06 美元，高於上一季的 0.04 美元，並且我們實現了迄今為止最強勁的貸款增長季度，增加了 12 億美元的貸款。

Also, we continue to make good progress in New York Metro, and our TOP 10 program is on target and progressing well, with work commencing on a multi-year transformational top program to reimagine how the bank operates.

此外，我們在紐約大都會繼續取得良好進展，我們的 TOP 10 計劃正在按目標順利進行，並已開始實施一項為期多年的轉型頂級計劃，以重新構想銀行的運營方式。

Next, I'll talk through the second quarter results in more detail, starting with net interest income on slide 7. Net interest income increased 3.3% linked quarter, driven by continued expansion of our net interest margin and modestly higher interest earning assets.

接下來，我將更詳細地討論第二季的業績，從第 7 張投影片的淨利息收入開始。淨利息收入季增 3.3%，這得益於淨利差的持續擴大和生息資產的適度增加。

As you can see from the NIM walk at the bottom of the slide, our margin improved 5 basis points to 2.95% given the time-based benefits of non-core runoff and reduced drag from terminated swaps, as well as favorable fixed asset repricing. In addition, we continue to optimize our funding and execute well in our downrate deposit playbook as our interest-bearing deposit costs decreased 2 basis points.

從投影片底部的 NIM 趨勢可以看出，由於非核心流失帶來的時間效益和終止掉期帶來的阻力減少，以及有利的固定資產重新定價，我們的利潤率提高了 5 個基點，達到 2.95%。此外，我們繼續優化融資，並在降息存款策略中執行良好，因為我們的計息存款成本下降了 2 個基點。

Moving to slide 8, fees are up 10% linked quarter. Capital markets improved modestly driven by higher equity underwriting and loan syndication fees. Bond underwriting fees were lower due to a tariff-driven pause in activity for part of the quarter.

轉到幻燈片 8，費用與上一季相比上漲了 10%。受股票承銷費和銀團貸款費用上漲的推動，資本市場略有改善。由於本季部分時間因關稅原因活動暫停，債券承銷費較低。

Similarly, M&A advisory fees were lower with some sizable deals pushing into July, given the market uncertainty during the quarter. We expect that we will record over $30 million in fees on these deals in July.

同樣，由於本季市場不確定性，併購諮詢費用較低，一些大型交易推遲到 7 月。我們預計 7 月這些交易的費用將超過 3,000 萬美元。

We continued to perform well in middle-market-sponsored book runner deals, ranking third by deal volume in the second quarter. And our deal pipelines across M&A and DCM remain strong in terms of the number and value of transactions given pent up demand. Our wealth business delivered a record quarter with increased transaction activity and higher advisory fees from continued positive momentum in fee-based AUM growth in private bank. Our card business also delivered a record quarter driven by a seasonal improvement in purchase volumes.

我們在中端市場贊助的帳簿管理人交易中繼續表現良好，按第二季的交易量排名第三。鑑於被壓抑的需求，我們在併購和 DCM 領域的交易管道在交易數量和價值方面仍然保持強勁。我們的財富業務本季創下了紀錄，交易活動增加，私人銀行收費型資產管理規模 (AUM) 增長勢頭持續向好，導致諮詢費增加。受購買量季節性改善的推動，我們的信用卡業務也創下了季度紀錄。

Importantly, in consumer, we recently launched a new suite of Mastercard credit cards designed to address the distinct financial needs and preferences of our customers, which should help us accelerate growth in this business. Mortgage revenue growth reflects an improvement in MSR evaluation as well as seasonal growth in production.

重要的是，在消費者方面，我們最近推出了一套新的萬事達信用卡，旨在滿足客戶不同的財務需求和偏好，這將有助於我們加速該業務的成長。抵押貸款收入的成長反映了 MSR 評估的改善以及生產的季節性成長。

Lastly, other income was a bit higher than usual this quarter as we had a few things break our way. This line can move around a little from quarter to quarter.

最後，由於我們遇到了一些意外情況，本季其他收入比平常略高。這條線可能在每季之間略有變動。

On slide 9, expenses are broadly stable linked quarter, helping to drive positive operating leverage of about 5% and improve our efficiency ratio to below 65%. Our latest top program is progressing well and is on target to deliver a $100 million pre-tax run rate benefit by the end of the year.

在投影片 9 上，費用與季度相比基本上保持穩定，有助於推動約 5% 的正營運槓桿，並將我們的效率比率提高到 65% 以下。我們最新的頂級項目進展順利，預計在今年年底前實現 1 億美元的稅前運行率收益。

We've undertaken an effort to develop a much broader program to use new technologies to better serve customers and run the bank. We'll give you more on that later in the year.

我們已經努力開發一個更廣泛的計劃，以利用新技術更好地服務客戶並經營銀行。我們將在今年稍後為您提供更多相關資訊。

On slide 10, period-end loans were up 1%. This includes non-core portfolio runoff of roughly $700 million in the quarter. Excluding non-core, loans were up approximately 2% on a spot basis.

在第 10 張投影片中，期末貸款增加了 1%。其中包括本季約 7 億美元的非核心投資組合流失。除非核心貸款外，貸款現價上漲約 2%。

The private bank delivered its strongest loan growth quarter so far with period-end loans up about $1.2 billion to $4.9 billion. Commercial loans were up slightly given some new money lending growth and a pick-up in line utilization.

該私人銀行本季的貸款成長最為強勁，期末貸款增加了約 12 億美元，達到 49 億美元。由於新增貸款成長和貸款利用率上升，商業貸款略有增加。

We are past the peak in terms of client BSO exits, which is also creating less drag to growth. And core retail loans grew, driven by home equity and mortgage.

就客戶 BSO 退出而言，我們已經過了高峰期，這對成長的拖累也較小。在房屋淨值和抵押貸款的推動下，核心零售貸款有所增長。

Next on slides 11 and 12, we continue to do a good job on deposits, improving the mix with an increase in non-interest bearing to 22% of the book and lowering our overall deposit costs. Average deposits were up 1% driven by increases in lower cost categories across consumer and the private bank.

接下來在第 11 和 12 張投影片中，我們繼續做好存款工作，改善存款組合，將無利息存款佔比提高到 22%，降低整體存款成本。由於消費者銀行和私人銀行的低成本類別增加，平均存款增加了 1%。

We continue to focus on optimizing our deposit funding with a further reduction of higher cost treasury broker deposits this quarter and a decline in retail CDs. We delivered strong retail CD retention rates even as we reduced yields. This was a meaningful driver of our improving deposit cost this quarter as our deposit franchise continues to perform well in a competitive environment.

我們持續致力於優化存款融資，本季進一步減少成本較高的國庫經紀存款，並減少零售存單。儘管我們降低了收益率，但我們仍實現了強勁的零售 CD 保留率。由於我們的存款業務在競爭環境中持續表現良好，這是我們本季存款成本改善的重要推動力。

Our interest-bearing deposit costs are down 2 basis points this quarter, translating to a 54% cumulative down-beta. And importantly, stable retail deposits are 67% of our total deposits, which compares to a peer average of about 55%.

本季我們的計息存款成本下降了 2 個基點，相當於累計下降 54%。重要的是，穩定的零售存款占我們總存款的 67%，而同業平均約為 55%。

Moving to credit on slide 13. Net charge-offs of 48 basis points are down from 51 basis points in the prior quarter after adjusting for the seven basis point impact of the non-core education loan sale in Q1. Retail net charge-offs improved across both core and non-core, down about 10 basis points after adjusting for the non-core education loan sale. This was partly offset by a modest increase in commercial net charge-offs, primarily driven by an increase in C&I relating to several small idiosyncratic credits.

轉到第 13 張投影片。在調整第一季非核心教育貸款出售的 7 個基點的影響後，淨沖銷額為 48 個基點，低於上一季的 51 個基點。核心和非核心的零售淨沖銷均有所改善，在調整非核心教育貸款銷售後下降了約 10 個基點。這在一定程度上被商業淨沖銷的小幅增加所抵消，主要由於與幾項小額特殊信貸相關的 C&I 增加。

Of note, non-accrual loans continued to trend favorably, and we're down 4% linked quarter, reflecting a decline in C&I. Retail non-accrual loans also decreased with a reduction in other retail and continued runoff of the non-core auto portfolio.

值得注意的是，非應計貸款持續呈現良好趨勢，季減 4%，反映出商業和工業的下降。零售非應計貸款也因其他零售貸款的減少和非核心汽車投資組合的持續流失而減少。

As we look across the portfolio, we believe that credit trends are showing signs of improvement and that non-accrual loans for this cycle likely peaked in the third quarter of 2024, and that charge-offs peaked in the first quarter of 2025.

縱觀整個投資組合，我們認為信貸趨勢正在顯示出改善的跡象，本週期的非應計貸款可能在 2024 年第三季度達到頂峰，而沖銷則在 2025 年第一季達到頂峰。

Turning to the allowance for credit losses on slide 14, the allowance was down slightly to 1.59% this quarter as the portfolio mix continues to improve due to non-core runoffs, reduction in the CRE portfolio, and lower loss content front book originations across C&I and retail real estate secured. The economic forecasts supporting the allowance reflects a mild recession and macro impacts from tariffs similar to last quarter.

談到投影片 14 的信貸損失準備金，由於非核心業務流失、CRE 投資組合減少以及 C&I 和零售房地產擔保的損失內容前帳簿發起減少，投資組合組合繼續改善，本季準備金略有下降至 1.59%。支持該配額的經濟預測反映了溫和的經濟衰退和與上一季類似的關稅帶來的宏觀影響。

The general office balance of $2.7 billion continued to decline modestly in the second quarter, driven by paydowns and charge-offs. The reserve for the general office portfolio is $322 million, which represents 11.8% coverage.

受還款和沖銷的影響，第二季 27 億美元的一般辦公室餘額繼續小幅下降。一般辦公室投資組合的儲備金為 3.22 億美元，佔覆蓋率 11.8%。

It's worth noting that this is the first quarter since the general office concerns began that our ACL coverage level declined. We allowed the reserve coverage to come down slightly, utilizing the reserve as we make progress with the workout backlog and the rest of the book remains stable. Note that the [key note] to charge-offs plus the current reserve translates to a total expected loss rate of about 20% against the March 2023 general office loan balance, consistent with our view at the end of Q1.

值得注意的是，這是自總辦公室開始擔心我們的 ACL 覆蓋水平下降以來的第一個季度。我們允許儲備覆蓋率略微下降，隨著我們在鍛鍊積壓方面取得進展並且其餘書籍保持穩定，利用儲備。請注意，[關鍵說明]沖銷加上當前儲備金相當於 2023 年 3 月一般辦公貸款餘額的預期總損失率約為 20%，這與我們在第一季末的觀點一致。

Moving to slide 15, we have maintained excellent balance sheet strength. Our CET1 ratio is 10.6%. Adjusting for the AOCI opt-out removal, our CET1 ratio was stable at 9.1%.

轉到第 15 張投影片，我們保持了出色的資產負債表實力。我們的CET1比率為10.6%。調整 AOCI 退出措施後，我們的 CET1 比率穩定在 9.1%。

Given our strong capital position, we repurchased $200 million in common shares at a weighted average price of $39. And including dividends, we've returned a total of $385 million to shareholders in the second quarter. Our share repurchase program was also increased to $1.5 billion by the Board of Directors in June.

鑑於我們強大的資本實力，我們以 39 美元的加權平均價格回購了 2 億美元的普通股。包括股息在內，我們在第二季向股東返還了總計 3.85 億美元。董事會也在 6 月將我們的股票回購計畫增加至 15 億美元。

Moving to slide 16. We are well positioned to drive strong performance over the medium term with our overall three-part strategy: a transformed consumer bank, a best-positioned commercial bank among our regional peers, and our aspiration to build a premier bank-owned private bank and private wealth franchise.

移至投影片 16。我們擁有三部分整體策略，完全有能力在中期內實現強勁業績：轉型後的消費者銀行、區域同行中處於最佳地位的商業銀行，以及打造一流的銀行旗下私人銀行和私人財富特許經營權的願望。

In support of these businesses, we've commenced work on a broad Reimagining the Bank initiative that will drive meaningful benefits by revisiting how we operate front to back and leveraging new technologies like AI to serve customers in new ways and run the bank better. This will become a multi-year transformational top program, and we will have more to say about this as the planning progresses later in the year.

為了支持這些業務，我們已開始開展一項廣泛的「重塑銀行」計劃，該計劃將通過重新審視我們從前到後的運營方式並利用人工智能等新技術以新的方式為客戶服務並更好地運營銀行來帶來有意義的利益。這將成為一個多年的轉型頂級計劃，隨著今年稍後規劃的進展，我們將對此有更多了解。

Moving to slide 17, our private bank continued to make excellent progress. We delivered our strongest loan growth quarter so far, adding $1.2 billion of loans to end the second quarter at $4.9 billion. This reflects growth in commercial as line utilization has picked up given increasing client activity as well as growth in mortgage.

轉到第 17 張投影片，我們的私人銀行繼續取得優異的進展。我們實現了迄今為止最強勁的貸款成長季度，增加了 12 億美元的貸款，第二季末貸款總額達到 49 億美元。這反映了商業的成長，因為隨著客戶活動的增加以及抵押貸款的成長，線路利用率上升。

Average deposits were up $966 million for the quarter and stable on a spot basis, given a temporary surge in deposits at the end of the first quarter and some outflows at the end of the Q2. We've seen good deposit gathering momentum early in the third quarter with deposit levels over $9.5 billion in mid-July. The overall mix continues to be very attractive, with about 36% in non-interest bearing at the end of the quarter.

由於第一季末存款暫時激增以及第二季末出現一些資金流出，本季平均存款增加了 9.66 億美元，且現貨存款保持穩定。我們看到第三季初存款成長勢頭良好，7 月中旬存款水準超過 95 億美元。整體組合仍然非常有吸引力，本季末無息貸款佔比約為 36%。

We added three more strong wealth teams this quarter, one each in northern New Jersey, New York City, and Los Angeles. We ended the quarter with $6.5 billion in AUM, up $1.3 billion for the quarter.

本季我們又增加了三個強大的財富團隊，分別位於新澤西州北部、紐約市和洛杉磯。本季末，我們的資產管理規模為 65 億美元，比本季增加了 13 億美元。

With a $0.06 contribution to EPS from the private bank in the second quarter, we are tracking well against our targeted 5%-plus accretion to Citizens' bottom line in 2025 and to deliver a 20% to 24% return on equity for the year and over the medium term.

私人銀行在第二季度為每股收益貢獻了 0.06 美元，我們正順利實現到 2025 年使 Citizens 的底線利潤增長 5% 以上的目標，並在當年和中期內實現 20% 至 24% 的股本回報率。

Moving to slide 18. We provide our guide for the third quarter, which contemplates a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. We expect net interest income to be up approximately 3% to 4%, driven by an improvement in net interest margin of approximately 5 basis points, with interest-earning assets up slightly. This pick up in net interest margin is primarily attributable to the time-based benefits of non-core runoff, reduced drag from terminated swaps, and a benefit from fixed asset rate repricing.

移至幻燈片 18。我們提供了第三季的指導，其中預計 9 月將降息 25 個基點。我們預計淨利息收入將成長約 3% 至 4%，這得益於淨利差改善約 5 個基點，以及生息資產略有增加。淨利差的回升主要歸因於非核心業務流失所帶來的時間效益、掉期終止帶來的拖累減少、固定資產利率重新定價所帶來的好處。

We expect non-interest income to be up low-single-digits led by rebounding activity in capital markets which will be partially offset by reductions in mortgage and other income. We are projecting expenses to be up approximately 1% to 1.5%, reflecting continued private bank buildout and broadly strong fee revenues. We expect to deliver positive operating leverage for the second quarter in a row.

我們預計非利息收入將出現低個位數成長，這主要得益於資本市場的反彈，但抵押貸款和其他收入的減少將部分抵消這一增長。我們預計支出將上漲約 1% 至 1.5%，這反映了私人銀行的持續擴張和費用收入的普遍強勁。我們預計將連續第二季實現正的經營槓桿。

Credit trends are expected to improve modestly from the second quarter charge-off level. And we should end the third quarter with CET1 stable, including share repurchases of roughly $75 million which could be impacted by the amount of loan growth.

預計信貸趨勢將從第二季的沖銷水準略有改善。我們應該在第三季結束時保持 CET1 穩定，其中包括約 7,500 萬美元的股票回購，這可能會受到貸款成長金額的影響。

Our full-year outlook remains broadly in line with the guide we provided in January, which contemplated a pick-up in business activity in the second half of the year.

我們的全年展望與我們一月份提供的指引大致一致，預計下半年商業活動將會回升。

Looking out to the medium term, we see a clear path to achieving our 16% to 18% ROTCE target. Expanding our net interest margin is also an important driver, and we continue to project to be 3.05% to 3.10% in 4Q '25, 3.15% to 3.30% in 4Q '26, and in the 3.25% to 3.50% range in 2027.

展望中期，我們看到了實現 16% 至 18% ROTCE 目標的明確途徑。擴大我們的淨利差也是一個重要的驅動力，我們繼續預測2025年第四季的淨利差將達到3.05%至3.10%，2026年第四季將達到3.15%至3.30%，2027年將達到3.25%至3.50%。

Slide 21 in our Appendix provides some incremental details on our net interest margin progression to 2027. This, combined with the impact of successful execution of our strategic initiatives and improving credit performance, will drive ROTCE meaningfully higher through to 2027.

附錄中的第 21 張投影片提供了有關我們到 2027 年淨利差進展的一些增量細節。這一點，加上我們成功執行策略性舉措和改善信貸績效的影響，將推動 ROTCE 在 2027 年之前大幅上升。

To wrap up, we delivered strong second-quarter results that came in ahead of expectations, highlighted by growth in net interest margin, good fee performance, and positive operating leverage. We ended the quarter with strong capital, liquidity, and reserves, which puts us in an excellent position to support our clients and continue driving growth and progressing our strategic initiatives.

總而言之，我們第二季度的業績表現強勁，超出預期，其中突出表現在淨息差的增長、良好的費用表現以及積極的經營槓桿。我們在本季結束時擁有強大的資本、流動性和儲備，這使我們能夠處於有利地位來支持我們的客戶並繼續推動成長和推進我們的策略計畫。

With that, I'll hand it back over to Bruce.

說完這些，我就把它交還給布魯斯。

Okay. Thank you, John. Denise, let's open it up for Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，約翰。丹尼斯，我們開始問答環節。

-- we are now ready for the Q&A portion of the call. (Operator Instructions)

——我們現在準備好進行電話會議的問答部分。（操作員指示）

Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的瑞安·納許。

Hey. Good morning, everyone. Bruce, you saw a nice loan growth in the quarter. Obviously, a decent amount of it was idiosyncratic given the gains that you're making in the private bank. So I know there's a lot of moving pieces with loan growth, runoff and CRE, strategic runoff, but maybe can you just talk about what you're seeing in terms of growth in sort of the private bank and then everything else and how you're feeling about sentiments from borrowers for the remainder of the year? Thank you.

嘿。大家早安。布魯斯，你看到本季貸款成長良好。顯然，考慮到你在私人銀行所獲得的利益，其中相當一部分是特殊的。所以我知道貸款成長、流失和 CRE、策略性流失有很多變化因素，但也許您能否談談您所看到的私人銀行和其他所有領域的成長情況，以及您對今年剩餘時間借款人情緒的看法？謝謝。

Sure. I'll start and then I'll -- think I'll pass it to Brendan and Don for more specific color. But I'd say, it's felt a little like an inflection point that we finally saw all three of the businesses -- commercial, consumer, private bank -- have net loan growth. And at the enterprise level, we had loan growth that exceeded the kind of BSO and non-core rundown actions that we're taking.

當然。我會開始，然後我會 - 我想我會把它傳遞給 Brendan 和 Don 以獲得更具體的顏色。但我想說，這感覺有點像是轉捩點，我們終於看到所有三個業務——商業、消費者、私人銀行——都實現了淨貸款成長。在企業層面，我們的貸款成長超過了我們正在採取的 BSO 和非核心削減行動。

And when we look into the second half, I would say we're constructive on the macro and the fact that there's been pent-up demand to put money to work in the sponsor space. We're starting to see kind of some new deal flow. We're starting to see a pick-up in line utilization there and a little bit also in the pure corporate banking side.

當我們展望下半年時，我想說，我們對宏觀形勢持建設性態度，而且事實上存在著將資金投入贊助領域的被壓抑的需求。我們開始看到一些新的交易流。我們開始看到那裡的線路利用率上升，純公司銀行業務方面也有所上升。

I think the private bank is finding its footing in terms of we kind of get -- have the operation up and running. Initial focus is attracting the relationships and gathering the deposits in the operating accounts, and I think it's been a little slower to see the loan demand pick up, but we're now starting to see that.

我認為私人銀行正在尋找自己的立足點，以便開展業務並正常運作。最初的重點是吸引關係並收集營運帳戶中的存款，我認為貸款需求的成長速度有點慢，但現在我們開始看到這一點。

So some of the growth in the quarter was line utilization on some of the PE/VC subscription lines we have, but also the individual consumer borrowing, particularly around mortgage, that's starting to pick up as well. And so we expect that now to continue. Clearly, a little drop in rates if it happens in the second half would be a bit of a tailwind there.

因此，本季的成長部分來自於我們部分 PE/VC 認購額度的使用率，但個人消費借貸，尤其是抵押貸款，也開始回升。因此我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。顯然，如果下半年利率略有下降，將會為經濟帶來一些推動作用。

And then in consumer, we've been kind of just very steady. We have a great HELOC product. We lead the market in HELOC market share. That continues to be a product that is in demand, as well as mortgage being another area where we see consistent modest growth, but nonetheless, it's growth. And then we launched a whole new card complex during the quarter, and we would expect to see balances in the card space pick up a bit.

在消費者方面，我們一直都非常穩定。我們有一個很棒的 HELOC 產品。我們在 HELOC 市場佔有率方面處於領先地位。這仍然是一種有需求的產品，抵押貸款是我們看到持續適度成長的另一個領域，但無論如何，它仍在成長。然後，我們在本季推出了全新的信用卡體系，我們預計信用卡領域的餘額將有所回升。

So, I'd say we see growth continuing really across the complex. And the other net positive is some of the BSO is starting to wind down and become less of a headwind. So the non-core reductions are smaller as we go forward. Some of the work that's been done in commercial, that's smaller as we go forward. And so that will free up the overall net number to be a little bit more positive.

所以，我想說，我們看到整個綜合體確實在持續成長。另一個淨利好是，部分 BSO 開始逐漸減弱，不再成為阻力。因此，隨著我們不斷前進，非核心削減幅度會越來越小。隨著我們不斷前進，一些在商業領域已經完成的工作規模會越來越小。這樣一來，整體淨數字就會變得更加正面一些。

So with that, why don't I go first to Brendan. And then we'll go over to Don.

那麼，我為什麼不先去找布倫丹呢？然後我們去找唐。

Sounds good. That was all well said, so maybe I'll just supplement that with a few numbers. In the core retail business, excluding non-core, we were up about $400 million quarter on quarter, about $1 billion for year on year. So we're seeing steady, high-quality relationship-led growth.

聽起來不錯。說得太好了，所以我只需用一些數字來補充一下。在核心零售業務（不包括非核心業務）中，我們季度環比成長約 4 億美元，較去年同期成長約 10 億美元。因此，我們看到了穩定、高品質的關係主導的成長。

The HELOC progress that we're making has been substantial and with external numbers that are available on title recordings, it appears we've been number one in the United States on originations in the last couple of quarters. And the credit quality has been very, very high. High-700s FICOs, mid-60s CLTVs, so we're very pleased with the yields above 7%.

我們在 HELOC 方面取得了長足的進步，從標題記錄中可獲得的外部數據來看，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們在 HELOC 的發起量上在美國一直名列第一。而且信用品質一直都非常非常高。FICO 高達 700 多，CLTV 為 60 多，因此我們對 7% 以上的收益率非常滿意。

[A fad] when we're not playing across the country.

當我們不在全國各地演出時，這是一種時尚。

We're only playing in 14 or 15 states and number one nationally. And those all come with deep deposit relationships as well, given the structure of the product and our strategy. So we're very pleased with that.

我們只在 14 或 15 個州演出，在全國排名第一。考慮到產品結構和我們的策略，這些也都伴隨著深厚的存款關係。所以我們對此感到非常高興。

As Bruce mentioned, we're incredibly excited about the new credit card product launch. It will be mostly oriented around cross selling into our retail customer base versus trying to be a national issuer, but we believe the products are very competitive. And, in fact, we're seeing 30% of our early sales in our higher-end mass affluent oriented card that we're calling Summit Reserve, which is a metal black card and also comes with an annual fee.

正如布魯斯所說，我們對新信用卡產品的推出感到無比興奮。它將主要面向我們的零售客戶群進行交叉銷售，而不是試圖成為全國發行人，但我們相信產品非常有競爭力。事實上，我們早期銷售的 30% 來自我們稱為 Summit Reserve 的高端大眾富裕卡，這是一張金屬黑卡，也收取年費。

So it can reposition the profitability of the credit card business over time, and we expect balances, as purchase activity to scale in the back half of the year, start to see some modest, high-yielding growth there. So we feel like we're well positioned in consumer for that to continue and maybe accelerate a little bit on the yield side with card.

因此，它可以隨著時間的推移重新定位信用卡業務的獲利能力，我們預計，隨著下半年購買活動的擴大，餘額將開始出現一些適度、高收益的成長。因此，我們覺得我們在消費者方面處於有利地位，可以繼續保持這種勢頭，並且可能在信用卡收益方面有所加速。

In the private banking space, we're seeing really an unlock on growth across the board, $1.2 billion in growth linked quarter. 31% of the balances are consumer; that's up a little bit from last quarter. We had a 95% growth rate linked quarter on originations on mortgage.

在私人銀行領域，我們看到了全面成長的釋放，本季成長了 12 億美元。 31% 的餘額來自消費者；這比上一季略有上升。我們的抵押貸款發放量較上月增加了 95%。

So what we're hearing in the market is that our customers obviously were dealing with higher interest rates for a while as we launched the business. You all saw that those metrics or heavy deposit-led early on. And they're starting to adjust to the new normal of where interest rates are, and business activity is starting to flow through. So the relationship started with day-to-day operating deposits, and it's now moving into lending, which is great to see.

因此，我們在市場上聽到的消息是，當我們開展業務時，我們的客戶顯然​​在一段時間內面臨更高的利率。大家都看到了，這些指標或早期的大量存款是主導的。他們開始適應利率的新常態，商業活動也開始活躍起來。因此，這種關係始於日常營運存款，現在正轉向貸款，這令人高興。

Yields are strong, [6.55%] on the private bank, which is 433 basis points over the deposit cost. So we still have margin in this business that is NIM accretive, which is driving, obviously, the ROE accretion at the top of the house.

私人銀行的收益率很高，為 6.55%，比存款成本高出 433 個基點。因此，我們在該業務中仍然擁有利潤，即淨利息收益率 (NIM) 的增加，這顯然推動了房頂 ROE 的增加。

For us to deliver the rest of the year in private banking, we need an average of $1.1 billion a quarter versus $1.2 billion we just did. So we feel pretty good that the story can continue, and the pipelines are strong and demand is really increasing, Hopefully, with volatility in the market, staying in the same zone we're in now or better, we feel really positive.

為了在今年剩餘時間內實現私人銀行業務的盈利，我們需要平均每季 11 億美元的收入，而我們剛剛實現的收入是 12 億美元。因此，我們感覺很好，故事可以繼續下去，管道很強大，需求確實在增加，希望隨著市場波動，保持在我們現在所處的相同區域或更好，我們感到非常積極。

And then on the non-core side, just as Bruce mentioned, the rundown is easing. Last year, we were running down about $1 billion a quarter. For the back half of the year, it will be about $0.5 billion a quarter. So still a little bit of headwinds there, but that's reducing, which should be net accretive and hopefully allow us to -- all the front book activity we're seeing in the customer businesses to start to scale up.

然後在非核心方面，正如布魯斯所提到的，這種下滑趨勢正在緩解。去年，我們每季虧損約 10 億美元。今年下半年，每季的支出約為 5 億美元。因此，仍然存在一些阻力，但阻力正在減少，這應該會帶來淨增值，並希望讓我們——我們在客戶業務中看到的所有前台活動都能開始擴大規模。

Okay. Don?

好的。大學教師？

Yeah. So I'll pick up where Brendan ended, which is we've been reducing our book ex-CRE by about $1 billion a quarter on our BSO agenda, and that's -- we're basically almost done with that. So that's going to be a headwind that goes away. We'll continue to reduce CRE a little bit to the tune of $0.5 billion a quarter or so, but that will be a little bit of a drag.

是的。因此，我將從布倫丹結束的地方繼續說，我們一直在按照 BSO 議程每季度減少約 10 億美元的賬面非 CRE 資產，而且 — — 我們基本上已經完成了這一目標。所以，這將會是一道逐漸消失的逆風。我們將繼續將 CRE 稍微減少一點，每季減少 5 億美元左右，但這會造成一點拖累。

But we're -- I mean what we're seeing is broad business optimism across the board. This quarter, it was really led by the private complex, which everybody knows, we've put a lot of resources, a lot of strategic emphasis on. So we saw a lot of great utilization in our subscription lines and our private credit lines.

但我們——我的意思是，我們看到的是整個行業的普遍商業樂觀情緒。本季度，真正由私人綜合體引領，眾所周知，我們在這方面投入了大量資源，並給予了巨大的戰略重點。因此，我們看到我們的訂閱額度和私人信用額度得到了很大的利用。

That was probably about 75% of our loan growth in the quarter with about 25% coming from C&I. But as I'm out talking to C&I customers, they're starting to see the uncertainty around the different policy questions abate. So you've got the budget bill passed; you've got the Middle East solved. You've got tariffs moving behind us. And they're beginning to invest in their businesses again. And we're seeing quite dynamic pipeline growth across core C&I, where also people remember, we -- Bruce mentioned and John mentioned that New York Metro, we're 2.5, 3 years into now, but we've also opened up in Florida and California in terms of middle market growth, and we're seeing very nice new business generation in those markets, which is generating not only loan growth, but it's generating full wallet relationships, which we're really encouraged by.

這大概占我們本季貸款成長的 75%，其中約 25% 來自商業和工業。但當我與 C&I 客戶交談時，他們開始發現圍繞不同政策議題的不確定性正在減弱。因此，預算法案已經通過；中東問題已經解決。我們已經採取了關稅措施。他們又開始對自己的企業進行投資。我們看到核心 C&I 領域的管道增長相當活躍，人們還記得，我們​​——布魯斯和約翰提到過紐約地鐵，我們已經進入 2.5 到 3 年了，但就中端市場增長而言，我們也在佛羅裡達州和加利福尼亞州開闢了業務，我們看到這些市場出現了非常好的新業務，這不僅帶來了貸款增長，而且還產生了完整的錢包關係，這讓我們感到非常鼓舞的錢包。

So very different from where I was six months ago. I'm very optimistic about what we see going forward. We'll see how quickly it materializes, but it seems like the environment is a good tailwind to the next couple of quarters.

這與我六個月前的情況有很大不同。我對於未來的發展非常樂觀。我們將觀察它實現的速度，但看起來環境對接下來的幾季來說是一個很好的順風。

Yeah. I would just put one asterisk on what you said, Don, is the worst-case outcomes on tariffs seem to be behind us. But it's still kind of out there as something to contend with. But I'd say most folks feel that we'll negotiate something that results in fairer trade. There'll be a higher tariff rate, but it's not something that is going to knock people off their peg.

是的。唐，我只想在你所說的上面加一個星號，那就是關稅的最壞結果似乎已經過去了。但它仍然是一個需要解決的問題。但我想說，大多數人認為我們會透過談判實現更公平的貿易。關稅稅率將會提高，但這並不會讓人失去抵抗力。

And they're adjusting their business models to deal with it.

他們正在調整商業模式來應對這個問題。

Yeah. Correct. So let's hope that is the case as we go forward. But in any case, I think that has turned into something that's not as big a concern in terms of causing uncertainty. I also think besides the tax bill getting through the regulatory appointees getting confirmed and having -- pushing that aggressive regulatory agenda will also be positive in the second half of the year.

是的。正確的。因此，我們希望未來情況確實如此。但無論如何，我認為就造成不確定性而言，這不再是一個大問題。我還認為，除了稅收法案獲得通過之外，監管任命得到確認以及推動積極的監管議程也將對下半年產生積極影響。

Okay, Ryan. Anything else?

好的，瑞安。還要別的嗎？

Yes. No, that was a great in-depth response. I just -- I feel bad that John didn't get a chance to answer, so maybe I'll just throw one out there for him. And obviously, it's been great to see the NIM expansion, and you sort of reiterated all the NIM expectations over the medium term.

是的。不，這是一個非常深入的回應。我只是——我很遺憾約翰沒有機會回答，所以也許我應該為他提供一個問題。顯然，看到 NIM 擴張是一件很棒的事情，而且您重申了對中期 NIM 的所有預期。

I guess given the potential that we could have a more dovish Fed at some point in not so distant future, maybe just talk about what steps you are taking, if at all, to sort of try to lock in the higher end of those margin expectations? And even if we're in a more dovish environment, can we see sort of the midpoint or higher in terms of the net interest margin. Thank you. No more for me.

我想，考慮到在不久的將來，美聯儲可能會採取更為鴿派的政策，也許您可以談談您正在採取哪些措施（如果有的話）來嘗試鎖定這些保證金預期的較高端？即使我們處於更溫和的環境中，我們是否可以看到淨利差的中間值或更高水平。謝謝。對我來說不再如此。

Yeah. Appreciate that, Ryan. And so I guess what I would talk about is that we have this range that we've talked about over the medium term of 3.25 to 3.50. And in our materials, we talked a little bit about what rate environment that range would be consistent with. That rate environment, even with the Fed funds level that is frankly even below 3%, I'd say that something even in the neighborhood of 2.75%, which would be a significant amount of dovishness and a significant amount of reductions from the Fed, would still be consistent with the low end of that range of 3.25%.

是的。非常感謝，瑞安。所以我想說的是，我們之前討論過的中期利率區間是3.25到3.50。我們在資料中也稍微討論了該區間與什麼樣的利率環境相符。在這種利率環境下，即使聯邦基金利率水準坦白說低於 3%，我認為即使在 2.75% 左右，這將是相當溫和的政策態度和聯準會的大幅降息，但仍將與 3.25% 的低端利率區間保持一致。

And anything higher than that, what we messaged was something in the neighborhood of 3.50% probably puts us in the middle of our range and at [3.37] NIM and anything that higher for longer gets us to the high end of that range.

任何高於這個水平的利率，我們傳遞的信息是 3.50% 左右的利率可能使我們處於範圍的中間，而 NIM 為 [3.37]，任何高於這個水平且持續時間更長的利率都會使我們處於該範圍的高端。

So we're feeling very increasingly confident in that range. And what we've been doing to try to -- quarter over quarter to protect that downside is opportunistically putting on hedges in a forward starting way. And those hedges generally are well north of where we think the Fed will likely come out. So they'll be stable to providing protection against that lower end.

因此，我們對這個範圍越來越有信心。我們一直在嘗試——每個季度都採取一種機會主義的方式，以前瞻性的方式進行對沖，以防範這種不利影響。這些對沖通常都遠高於我們認為聯準會可能採取的行動水準。因此它們將穩定地提供針對低端的保護。

So we did a little bit of hedging in the second quarter, a little bit in the first quarter, and we'll continue to opportunistically look for our spots given rate volatility. And that's playing out really as expected. And so feeling pretty good about that range.

因此，我們在第二季度做了一些對沖，在第一季也做了一些對沖，我們將繼續根據利率波動尋找機會。而這一切確實正如預期的那樣。所以對這個範圍感覺很好。

I'll just add is that you don't want to spend all your powder on the down scenario. So we've left some of the out years a bit open because you could get in a situation where you have stagflation, and then you want to be able to participate and get the benefit of that in a higher rate environment. So that's kind of a judgment call, but I think we have a really good buy box discipline, so to speak.

我只想補充一點，你不想把所有的錢都花在失敗的局面上。因此，我們對未來幾年的情況留有餘地，因為你可能會陷入滯脹的境地，然後你希望能夠參與其中，並在更高利率的環境中獲益。所以這是一種判斷，但我認為我們有一個非常好的購買框紀律，可以這麼說。

So we're waiting to see little spikes, and then we'll put some more on. But we're still kind of open to the possibilities that we could end up in a different scenario than what is the consensus scenario of the Fed kind of moving down.

因此，我們正在等待看到小尖峰，然後我們再添加一些。但我們仍然對最終出現與聯準會降息共識情境不同的情況的可能性持開放態度。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

Yes. Hi. Good morning. Just wanted to ask about the right-hand side of the balance sheet in terms of the strategy for the second half of the year. Given everything that I've heard from Brendan and Don, it sounds like it's going to be a good second half for growth. And I've noticed, John, that you did have great NIB growth in the quarter. Total deposits were down a little bit.

是的。你好。早安.只是想問資產負債表右側關於下半年策略的問題。從布倫丹和唐所言來看，下半年似乎將會有良好的成長。約翰，我注意到你在本季確實實現了巨大的 NIB 成長。總存款略有下降。

As we think about the second half of the year and potentially a growth year outlook, how are you thinking about sort of growth versus optimizing the mix? And/or is there sort of more BSO to consider that's coming on the asset side that could help fund that growth?

當我們考慮下半年以及潛在的成長年前景時，您如何看待成長與最佳化組合？或者是否有更多類型的 BSO 可以考慮從資產方面來資助這種增長？

Yeah. I think it's a tale of both of those, Erica. But well, I'll start off with the deposit side. We're pretty pleased with our low-cost deposit trends. So the mix improved in the second quarter compared to the first quarter on DDA and low cost overall. And those contributions are driven predominantly by our idiosyncratic private bank growth that comes in at 36% of non-interest-bearing. So that's accretive to top of the house.

是的。我認為這是一個關於這兩個人的故事，艾麗卡。不過，我將從存款方面開始。我們對低成本存款趨勢感到非常滿意。因此，與第一季相比，第二季的組合由於 DDA 和整體低成本而有所改善。這些貢獻主要由我們獨特的私人銀行業務成長所推動，其中無息部分佔 36%。所以這對房屋頂部有增值作用。

But also the core retail deposit base has just been performing exceptionally well versus peers from all that we can tell. So there's very strong momentum there. And then we have really good seasonal factors that contribute on the commercial side in the second half, typically.

但據我們所知，核心零售存款基礎的表現與同業相比也非常出色。因此，那裡的勢頭非常強勁。然後，我們有非常好的季節性因素，通常會在下半年對商業方面產生影響。

So all of that lines up for what we believe to be stable to improving mix on the deposit side, while actually still being able to grow deposits to support our loan growth outlook.

因此，我們認為所有這些都將使存款方面的結構穩定改善，同時實際上仍然能夠增加存款以支持我們的貸款成長前景。

And a stable LDR outlook too.

且存貸比前景穩定。

Stabilize liquidity with very good LDR. A good point there. And then, of course, on the left side of the balance sheet, we are still rotating capital, maybe to a declining degree, but we've done a really nice job of rotating all of that capital out of non-core and deploying it into highly strategic opportunities in the front book across all three businesses, all three legs of the stool.

透過非常好的貸存比來穩定流動性。這是個好觀點。當然，在資產負債表的左側，我們仍在進行資本輪換，雖然程度可能有所下降，但我們已經出色地完成了所有非核心資本的輪換工作，並將其部署到前賬簿中涵蓋所有三個業務、所有三個支柱的高度戰略性機會中。

So that's been really efficient. And that front book/back book is extremely powerful, and we will continue for some time in the non-core space. And you heard Don talk about the fact that he's still rotating capital in C&I, although to a decreasing level such that we're seeing some of this growth fall to the bottom line.

所以這確實非常有效。前書/後書非常強大，我們將在非核心領域繼續發展一段時間。您聽到唐談到他仍在商業和工業領域輪換資本，儘管資本在減少，以至於我們看到部分增長落到了底線。

Okay. I'm going to just briefly ask for a brief comment with color, so we don't chew up too much to the clock. But Brendan, maybe anything to add on kind of strategies in the second half for consumer or private bank. And then, Don, I'll flip it to you also for a brief comment.

好的。我只是想簡單地要求用顏色做一個簡短的評論，這樣我們就不會對時鐘進行太多的討論。但布倫丹，也許可以為消費者或私人銀行在下半年增加一些策略。然後，唐，我也會把它翻給你，讓你做一個簡短的評論。

Yeah. Just quickly to John's point, the benchmarks we see show that our low-cost deposits in the retail franchise are outperforming peer averages by over 300 basis points for the year so far, which is giving us a lot of optionality on how we manage our deposit strategy. So we generally have been flattish linked quarter on interest-bearing deposits, but we've actually grown retail core relationship deposits and at least a little bit of interest-bearing deposits on the Citizens Access side, which has given us a lot of ability to manage margin, and the total yield on the consumer business is down 3 basis points as a result. So all of that is giving us the ability to rotate to a higher quality deposit book, more relationship-led and giving us some flexibility on the yield side.

是的。回到約翰的觀點，我們看到的基準表明，今年迄今為止，我們在零售特許經營中的低成本存款比同行平均水平高出 300 多個基點，這為我們管理存款策略提供了很大的選擇空間。因此，我們的計息存款季度表現總體平穩，但實際上，我們的零售核心關係存款和至少少量的公民訪問計息存款都有所增長，這給了我們很大的能力來管理保證金，因此，消費者業務的總收益率下降了 3 個基點。因此，所有這些都使我們能夠轉向更高品質的存款帳簿，更加以關係為主導，並在收益方面為我們提供一定的靈活性。

We've had a lot of CD maturities, $8 billion in Q1, $6 billion in Q2. We're retaining about 87% of that, but the yields on that are down 120 basis points when we save those balances. That's also allowing us to drive cost down. And we have large maturities coming due. It's a little bit less in the second half than the first half of the year, but we still have a big maturities that we expect that to continue to give us some cost value.

我們有許多 CD 到期，第一季為 80 億美元，第二季為 60 億美元。我們保留了其中的 87% 左右，但當我們保存這些餘額時，收益率下降了 120 個基點。這也使我們能夠降低成本。我們有大量債券即將到期。下半年的債務比上半年略少，但我們仍有大量債務到期，我們預計這些債務將繼續為我們帶來一些成本價值。

And on the private bank side, I won't add a lot. We've got confidence in the outlook on growth -- 36% non-interest-bearing; 42%, low cost when you add had in [CD]. So the portfolio is of real high quality. We're starting to see the consumer side starting to gear up on some growth as well. And we just expect those trends to continue through the summer and into the fall. So we're pleased with that, and that should give us the ability to have idiosyncratic deposit growth.

在私人銀行方面，我不會增加太多。我們對成長前景充滿信心－36% 為無息貸款；42% 為低成本貸款[光碟].因此，該投資組合確實品質很高。我們開始看到消費者方面也開始加速成長。我們預計這些趨勢將持續整個夏季和秋季。因此我們對此感到高興，這將使我們有能力實現特殊的存款成長。

And I'll be super brief. I'd say the two things I'm excited about on the deposit side is, we are getting a nice win rate in our expansion markets, which is full wallet win rates. And then, we've had a couple of interesting wins on the payment side, another big merchant acquiring account, and a couple of other embedded finance type of accounts, which is coming with some nice low-cost deposit growth.

我會非常簡短地講一下。我想說，在存款方面令我興奮的兩件事是，我們在擴張市場中獲得了不錯的贏率，即全錢包贏率。然後，我們在支付方面取得了一些有趣的勝利，另一個大型商家收單帳戶，以及幾個其他嵌入式金融類型的帳戶，這些都帶來了一些不錯的低成本存款成長。

So it's changing our mix a little bit, and the liquidity team on the commercial side of the house has done a great job building a bunch of product functionality, which is away from just the core client functionality. So we see nice momentum on that front.

因此，它稍微改變了我們的組合，商業方面的流動性團隊在建立一系列產品功能方面做得非常出色，這些功能不僅僅是核心客戶端功能。因此，我們看到這方面的良好勢頭。

Good. Anything else, Erika?

好的。還有什麼嗎，艾莉卡？

Yeah. Just one more for you, Bruce. Just on the capital. Obviously, your large peers, the requirements have started to move down with this year's stress test, potentially more with other types of recalibration with Basel III Endgame potentially getting finalized; maybe the AOCI burden is just a third near term than the 150-basis-point adjustment that we have fully accounting for it today.

是的。再給你一個機會，布魯斯。就在首都。顯然，對於你們的大型同行來說，隨著今年的壓力測試，這些要求已經開始下降，隨著巴塞爾協議 III 終局的最終確定，其他類型的重新校準可能會進一步降低；也許 AOCI 負擔只是短期內的三分之一，而不是我們今天完全考慮到的 150 個基點的調整。

I guess, in terms of regional bank CET1 and excess capital definition, how much of it can sort of ride with the momentum of the G-SIBs versus potentially being also upheld by the ratings agency? I know one -- rating agencies, I know one of your peers talked about that being a bit of a binding constraint for the regionals. And I'm wondering if you had any thoughts on that.

我想，就區域性銀行 CET1 和超額資本定義而言，其中有多少可以順應 G-SIBs 的勢頭，又有多少可能被評級機構支持？我知道一個——評級機構，我知道你們的一位同行談到這對地區來說是一個約束性限制。我想知道您對此有何想法。

Yeah. Sure. So I would say it's good when you come through a turbulent period like we had in the banking industry through '23 and first half of '24 to build capital and run a little conservatively. And so I think you've seen all the regionals building their capital.

是的。當然。因此，我想說，當你經歷像 2023 年和 2024 年上半年銀行業所經歷的動盪時期時，累積資本並稍微保守地運作是件好事。所以我想你已經看到所有地區都在建造他們的首都。

I think the rating agencies' view collectively is, profitability took a bit of a dip and needs to be kind of restored. And then also, there was this overhang of commercial real estate office that needed to work itself through, and so hold more capital until we see the flex point where profitability has rebounded, and you've got through the kind of workout phase and substantially through when credit appears to be in good shape.

我認為評級機構的總體觀點是，獲利能力有所下降，需要恢復。此外，商業房地產辦公室的過剩問題需要解決，因此需要持有更多資本，直到我們看到盈利能力反彈的拐點，並且你已經度過了某種鍛煉階段，並且當信貸狀況看起來良好時，情況才會有所好轉。

So I'm hopeful the rating agencies start to look more at the front you mirror and don't hold on to that view for too long. But I think it's still there, and it's probably on investors' minds, too, is let's just make sure that we're in a good environment and then potentially capital can come down a bit.

因此，我希望評級機構開始更專注於你所反映的方面，並且不要堅持這種觀點太久。但我認為它仍然存在，而且投資者可能也在考慮這個問題，那就是讓我們確保我們處於良好的環境中，然後資本可能會下降一點。

So I don't think it's going to happen right away. I think we've been running a bit above our 10% to 10.5% CET1 range. Ultimately, I think we'll be able to bring it back into that range and still probably stay a bit on the conservative side.

所以我不認為這將會立即發生。我認為我們的 CET1 比率略高於 10% 至 10.5%。最終，我認為我們將能夠將其恢復到該範圍內，並且可能仍然保持保守的態度。

That's been our MO really since the IPO is to run a little conservative on capital. And there's some real benefits that come from that. If you have a fortress balance sheet, the industry is going to -- the economy is going to go through cycles. That means the industry is going to go through cycles, and there's going to be opportunities with us when the West Coast banks sale, we were in position to go bid and ultimately to do the start-up of the private bank in a tough environment. So actually, running with a little more conservative in your capital structure proves to be a long-term benefit.

自從 IPO 以來，這實際上一直是我們的經營方式，在資本方面採取較為保守的態度。這確實能帶來一些好處。如果你有一份堡壘資產負債表，那麼這個產業將會－經濟將會經歷週期。這意味著該行業將經歷週期，當西海岸銀行出售時，我們將有機會，我們有能力進行競標，並最終在艱難的環境中啟動私人銀行。因此，實際上，在資本結構上採取稍微保守一點的做法將被證明是一種長期利益。

So that's where I think it is, Erika.

所以我認為情況就是這樣，艾莉卡。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Thank you. I was hoping you could just elaborate a little bit on the Reimagining the Bank initiative. Maybe any color if there's kind of a point person running it and how it's different from the top initiatives that we've seen over the last several years?

謝謝。我希望您能稍微詳細闡述一下「重塑銀行」計畫。如果有負責人負責管理，那麼它可能具有任何顏色，並且與我們過去幾年看到的頂級舉措有何不同？

Okay. I'll start, and I think I'll flip it to Brendan, who will be on point for this one. But if you go back in the annals of our TOP program -- we've had 10 -- number six, about five years ago was a bigger, more complex program that kind of took a two-year timeframe and had more technology investment to deliver the benefits. And so a lot of times, when we focus on these annual TOP programs, we're going after faster wins that aren't as complex and across the enterprise and involve rolling out new technologies. But we paused and did a two-year program in TOP 6.

好的。我先開始，我想我會把它交給布倫丹，他會負責這一部分。但是，如果你回顧一下我們的 TOP 計劃的歷史——我們已經有 10 個了——大約五年前的第六個計劃是一個更大、更複雜的計劃，它花了兩年的時間，並且投入了更多的技術投資才產生效益。因此，很多時候，當我們專注於這些年度 TOP 計劃時，我們追求的是更快的勝利，這些勝利並不那麼複雜，並且涉及整個企業，並涉及推出新技術。但我們暫停了，在 TOP 做了一個為期兩年的項目6.

I think we're at a flex point now in what's happening with new technologies that it's worth doing something similar for the next TOP program. And I think it's kind of broader. TOP program may sound limiting. And when you say Reimagining the Bank, it's how you're serving your customers, what you can do for your customers, the efficiency of how you're running the bank, how you can just say things like I have all these people in the call centers, what are ways to deliver better outcomes and more cost effectively? What would it take to ultimately drive that? What has to happen from a technology standpoint, an organizational standpoint, et cetera?

我認為我們現在正處於新技術發展的轉折點，值得在下一個 TOP 專案中做一些類似的事情。我認為它的範圍更廣泛。TOP 計畫聽起來可能有些限制。當您說“重新構想銀行”時，它指的是您如何服務您的客戶，您能為您的客戶做什麼，您如何運營銀行的效率，您如何說“我在呼叫中心有這麼多人”，有什麼方法可以更有效地提供更好的結果？最終需要什麼來推動這個目標？從技術角度、組織角度等等來看，會發生什麼事？

So we're taking that step back now. We're talking with lots of outside consultants looking at scenarios across all industries, across the planet in the banking industry, what is kind of the cutting edge right now in terms of how these technologies are being deployed that can be kind of a seismic shift in how your bank is operating?

所以我們現在就退後一步。我們正在與許多外部顧問進行交流，研究所有行業、全球銀行業的情況，就這些技術的部署方式而言，目前最前沿的技術是什麼，這些技術可能會對銀行的運作方式產生巨大的變化？

It sounds -- I don't want to set expectations too high, but we are really at a exciting period now. So we basically set up Exco -- mini Exco sponsorship group, which is going to be led by Brendan. We have a kind of day-to-day lead project team from some key people across the bank that will focus on this mainly as their job now for the next few quarters.

聽起來——我不想把期望定得太高，但我們現在確實處於一個令人興奮的時期。因此，我們基本上成立了 Exco——迷你 Exco 贊助小組，由 Brendan 領導。我們有一個由銀行各部門關鍵人員組成的日常領導專案團隊，他們將在接下來的幾季中主要致力於此。

And then we have some idea on the silos that we can go attack. So we're kind of setting up the structure, and then we're going to unleash this very shortly.

然後我們對可以攻擊的筒倉有了一些想法。所以我們正在建立結構，然後我們很快就會釋放它。

But with that set up, maybe, Brendan, you could add to that.

但是有了這個設置，也許，布倫丹，你可以添加一些內容。

Yeah. I guess my thoughts here would be after going through the IPO for 10 years and then through COVID, I think for Citizens, it's a natural reflection point on the next chapter for the bank. And kind of what got us here might need to shift a little bit on what's going to get us to the next phase. And so good to just pull way back and have a broad lens on that.

是的。我想我的想法是，在經歷了 10 年的 IPO 和 COVID 之後，我認為對於公民來說，這是銀行下一章的自然反思點。而讓我們走到這一步的因素可能需要稍微改變一下，以便讓我們進入下一階段。最好能回顧一下，用更廣闊的視角來看這個問題。

And then to Bruce's point, you combine that with the market dynamics that things are changing very, very fast; the use cases on AI are becoming a little bit more real versus hopes and dreams. And how do we combine those two dynamics to simplify the business model and get really crisp on where we want to win and then really reimagine how the bank works to get things done in a win-win fashion, faster, cheaper for the bank, better from a customer experience standpoint from our -- for our customers?

然後回到布魯斯的觀點，將其與市場動態結合起來，事情正在發生非常非常快的變化；人工智慧的用例正變得更加真實，而不是希望和夢想。我們如何將這兩種動力結合起來，簡化商業模式，真正明確我們想要取勝的地方，然後真正重新構想銀行如何運作，以雙贏的方式完成工作，對銀行來說更快、更便宜，從客戶體驗的角度來看對我們的客戶來說更好？

So all things from operating metrics and artificial intelligence and cost to our people strategy and corporate real estate to simplifying our vendors and getting really, really focused. Everything is on the table. And so the work to be done over the next couple of months is just to hone that and get really focused on where we want to get to.

因此，從營運指標、人工智慧和成本到我們的人才策略和企業房地產，再到簡化我們的供應商並真正集中精力。一切都擺在桌面上。因此，未來幾個月要做的工作就是磨練這一點，並真正專注於我們想要實現的目標。

As Bruce mentioned, you will hear from us as soon as we get more specific on what we're going to tackle. But it's been five or six years since we did the last really big TOP, but it's probably the right timeline to move from the smaller programs back to a really large one.

正如布魯斯所提到的，一旦我們更明確地了解我們要解決的問題，您就會收到我們的通知。但距離我們上次開展真正大型的 TOP 專案已經過去了五到六年，但現在可能是從小型專案轉向大型專案的正確時間表。

And I would just also add, Matt, that we kept to some really good numbers in the medium term without this. And so we are aiming big on what the potential benefits can be which could be quite beneficial to the overall financial metrics.

馬特，我還要補充一點，即使沒有這個，我們在中期也能保持一些非常好的數字。因此，我們著眼於潛在的利益，這可能對整體財務指標非常有利。

Some of that is we'd like to free up the capacity to do more investment in some of our growth initiatives. So you get that virtuous circle going. And so you create some self-funding for the things that you think are going to drive the future. So you're able to now accelerate the investment cycle and drive kind of topline growth and efficiency growth.

其中之一是，我們希望釋放產能，以便對我們的一些成長計劃進行更多投資。這樣你就形成了一個良性循環。因此，您可以為自己認為將推動未來發展的事物創建一些自籌資金。因此，您現在可以加快投資週期並推動收入成長和效率成長。

And clearly, you're not going to spend everything that you save. You're going to -- some of that will drop through and benefit the margin and benefit ultimately the shareholder. But then there's some longer-term considerations where you can free up some investing dollars to actually accelerate the build-out of things like the private bank.

顯然，你不會花光你所有的積蓄。您將 — — 其中一些將會下降，並使利潤率受益，並最終使股東受益。但還有一些長期考慮，你可以釋放一些投資資金來真正加速私人銀行等的建設。

So we're pretty excited by it. I don't want to oversell it at this early stage, but stay tuned. We'll be talking more about it in the next couple of calls.

所以我們對此感到非常興奮。我不想在早期階段過度吹噓它，但請繼續關注。我們將在接下來的幾次通話中進一步討論這個問題。

All right. That's helpful. And then just as you think about kind of some of the upfront costs for this, are you thinking you can self-fund it like you've are they able to offer in the past, or anything that we should be mindful of in terms of notable items and things like that? Thanks.

好的。這很有幫助。然後，當您考慮這方面的一些前期成本時，您是否認為您可以像他們過去那樣自行籌資，或者在值得注意的項目和類似的事情方面我們應該注意什麼？謝謝。

I guess it's TBD, Matt, is what we've decided to do now is if the -- these are modest costs, and they tend to repeat with each TOP program. We're kind of not posting them separately and breaking them out. But if there were some big things that look more like an expenditure of capital and would affect the run rate, we can either call them out or we can notabilize them, but we haven't come across that bridge at this point.

馬特，我想這還有待確定，我們現在決定要做的是——這些是適度的成本，而且它們往往會在每個 TOP 專案中重複。我們不會將它們分開發布或拆分。但如果有一些大事看起來更像是資本支出，並且會影響運行率，我們可以將其指出來，也可以對其進行通知，但目前我們還沒有遇到這種情況。

Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

肯‧烏斯丁，自主研究。

Hey. Thanks. Good morning. Just two quick ones. So first, on the fee side, thanks for giving that color about the $30 million in the third quarter in capital markets, and we see the guide clearly. Just wondering if you could talk a little bit more just about that capital markets pipeline, what you're seeing underneath on the advisory side and other capital markets and how you're feeling about the outlook there.

嘿。謝謝。早安.只需簡單兩句話。首先，在費用方面，感謝您對第三季資本市場 3000 萬美元的介紹，我們清楚地看到了這項指導。只是想知道您是否可以再多談談資本市場管道，您在諮詢方面和其他資本市場方面看到的情況，以及您對那裡的前景有何看法。

Sure. Let me just start, and I'll quickly flip it to Don. But what I would say that is a real positive is that we do have some diversity in the fees within capital markets. So we started to see both -- interestingly, the equity markets start to come to life. And so we participated in some IPOs in the second quarter.

當然。讓我先開始，然後我會快速將其翻給唐。但我想說，真正正面的一點是，資本市場的費用確實存在著一定的多樣性。因此我們開始看到兩者——有趣的是，股票市場開始活躍起來。因此我們在第二季度參與了一些 IPO。

Banks indicated low market stayed strong throughout the quarter. There was a pause in debt market deals early in the quarter. And then the kind of overall macro uncertainty is -- probably has the biggest impact on M&A and people's willingness to go forward with deals and close deals.

銀行表示，整個季度市場低迷，依然保持強勁。本季初債務市場交易暫停。然後，整體宏觀不確定性可能會對併購以及人們推進交易和達成交易的意願產生最大影響。

So I think that right now, we have a huge tailwind because of the deals that pushed -- that could have closed in Q2 or were expected to that pushed into Q3. But beyond that, we're seeing that pipeline refill.

因此我認為，目前我們擁有巨大的順風，因為這些交易可能在第二季完成，或者預計將推遲到第三季。但除此之外，我們也看到管道正在重新填充。

We think the equity market continues a bit syndicated loan market. And then the debt market should come back as well. So we might be firing on all cylinders, but I'll turn that over to Don.

我們認為股票市場將繼續有點像銀團貸款市場。然後債務市場也應該會復甦。所以我們可能會全力以赴，但我將把這個交給唐。

I won't go all the way there, because I'll get my budget changed for the year. But we are seeing -- remember that away from M&A, which is obviously advisory and actually working with a lot of our private companies for generational change transactions, which is what our core franchise is, there's a big, big pent-up kind of desire to transact. And it's only been recently where you're starting to see valuations come in line between buyers and sellers. And a couple of the big things we are going to complete in July had nice economic kickers to them, and we're selling these companies for really high valuations.

我不會一路走到那裡，因為我今年的預算會改變。但我們看到——請記住，除了併購之外，這顯然是一種諮詢，實際上我們與許多私人公司合作進行代際變革交易，這也是我們的核心特許經營權，還有一種強烈的被壓抑的交易願望。直到最近，我們才開始看到買家和賣家之間的估值趨於一致。我們將在 7 月完成的幾項大事對經濟產生了良好的推動作用，我們將以非常高的估值出售這些公司。

The second thing I'd say is on the financing side of things, whether it be syndicated lending or the bond businesses or even some of the equity businesses, it's largely been a refinancing of capital structure kind of exercise, and we haven't really seen the new money engine kick in size yet. And it feels to me like that's happening as I'm looking at our pipelines that we're starting to see the -- and it's not just continuation funds from the private equity guys, which is the flavor of the month, but they're beginning to actually transact in a much more significant way.

我想說的第二件事是，在融資方面，無論是銀團貸款還是債券業務，甚至是一些股權業務，基本上都是資本結構再融資的一種活動，我們還沒有真正看到新的資金引擎發揮作用。我覺得這種情況正在發生，當我查看我們的管道時，我們開始看到——這不僅僅是來自私募股權投資者的延續資金，這是本月的熱門，而且他們實際上開始以更重要的方式進行交易。

So you're seeing the whole private complex beginning to come forward and look to put capital to use, whether that is a third quarter event or a fourth quarter event, I'm not totally sure yet. But the pipelines feel pretty good. So I'm more optimistic than I've been in a while in terms of momentum across the diversified portfolio that Bruce mentioned in terms of cap markets.

因此，您將看到整個私人綜合體開始出現並尋求利用資本，無論這是第三季事件還是第四季度事件，我還不完全確定。但管道感覺相當不錯。因此，就布魯斯提到的資本市場多元化投資組合的勢頭而言，我比以前更加樂觀。

Okay. Great. And then just it's clear to see like the mortgage over earning in the quarter, so that's clear in the forward guide. Just the other was a bunch of smattering of items. Was there anything notably sizable in there? Or what a better run rate is for that other fees? Thanks, guys.

好的。偉大的。然後就可以清楚地看到本季的抵押貸款收益超過了預期，這在前瞻性指南中很清楚。其餘的只是一些零散的物品。那裡面有什麼特別大的東西嗎？或者其他費用的更好的運行率是多少？謝謝大家。

I would just say there, Ken, that other income line has got a collection of small things that you kind of have to take a view of the full year on that that you're going to have some quarters where things run a little light in some quarters where they run a little heavier. And so I think that kind of evens out over the course of the year.

肯，我只想說，其他收入線包含一些小東西，你必須從全年的角度來看待它們，你會發現有些季度的收入會比較少，而有些季度的收入會比較多。所以我認為這種情況在一年內會逐漸趨於平衡。

So there's nothing really sizable and noteworthy to call out there. It just seemed like a few things broke our way and less things broke our way in the first quarter.

因此，並沒有什麼真正重大和值得關注的事情。看起來，第一季有幾件事對我們不利，但有少件事對我們不利。

Steven Alexopoulos, TD Cowen.

史蒂文·亞歷克斯普洛斯 (Steven Alexopoulos)，TD Cowen。

Hey. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to start -- so first on the Private Bank. So if we look at the $12 billion deposit target for the end of this year, I know the trends aren't linear, but just given what we saw in 2Q versus 1Q, what gives you confidence? It's roughly $3 billion or so growth for the second half. Can you talk about that?

嘿。大家早安。我想先從私人銀行開始。因此，如果我們看一下今年年底的 120 億美元存款目標，我知道趨勢並不是線性的，但考慮到我們在第二季度與第一季看到的情況，是什麼讓您有信心？下半年的成長約為 30 億美元。你能談談這個嗎？

Yeah. Well, as John mentioned in his comments, mid-July, we're already up over $9.5 billion. And so the $8.7 million, if you look at the average deposit growth was quite healthy, had some positive notes at the end of Q1 that flowed back out seasonally. And then we had some lumpy couple of days at the end of this quarter. So looking at the average balances is probably the right way to do it on the underlying momentum, and we're starting to see that ramp back up.

是的。嗯，正如約翰在評論中提到的，到 7 月中旬，我們的資金已經超過 95 億美元。因此，如果您看一下平均存款成長情況，您會發現 870 萬美元是相當健康的，第一季末有一些正面的票據，這些票據會隨著季節回流。然後，我們在本季末經歷了一些不順利的日子。因此，查看平均餘額可能是了解潛在勢頭的正確方法，而且我們開始看到這種勢頭回升。

So it is true. We'll need a strong summer and fall and a strong close of the year to get to the numbers, but we see the demand there. The platform is scaling. Our bankers are hitting their stride. They're getting used to the platform and used to the bank that we still see the white space as nobody has truly emerged to cover it. We're still seeing strong inflows.

所以這是真的。我們需要強勁的夏季和秋季以及強勁的年底才能達到這一數字，但我們看到了那裡的需求。該平台正在擴展。我們的銀行家們正大步前進。他們已經習慣了這個平台，習慣了這家銀行，我們仍然看到空白，因為沒有人真正出現來填補它。我們仍然看到強勁的資金流入。

And so demand is high. It's going to be about execution. And the underlying pace I think, needs to be in line to maybe slightly better than what we saw in the second quarter for us to get there. But we've got confidence that that's the case.

因此需求很高。這將是有關執行的問題。我認為，為了實現這一目標，基本步伐需要與我們在第二季度看到的步伐保持一致，甚至可能略好一些。但我們有信心事實確實如此。

We also have had some new teams that have gone in Southern California, as an example, that are just getting their feet under them. So we have some positivity there and very targeted. We've added a few folks in a handful of the markets. So there's a lot of dynamics going into that. It certainly is an ambitious target for us, but we do have confidence we can get there.

例如，我們也有一些新團隊前往南加州，他們剛開始站穩腳步。因此，我們在這方面表現出一些積極性，而且非常有針對性。我們在少數市場增加了一些人員。因此，這其中涉及許多動態因素。對我們來說這無疑是一個雄心勃勃的目標，但我們有信心實現它。

Okay. That's helpful. And then for my follow-up, so this commentary around Reimagining the Bank is really fascinating. When you talk to most banks and they talk about agentic AI, it tends to be call center and CRM focused. It seems that this is much broader.

好的。這很有幫助。接下來是我的後續，關於重新構想銀行的評論真的很有趣。當您與大多數銀行交談時，他們談論代理 AI，這往往以呼叫中心和 CRM 為中心。看起來這範圍要廣泛得多。

Are you guys -- is this like everything on the table, client experience, cost saves, risk mitigation, are you looking at everything? And then if you are, it's amazing if you could pay for that and not see an increase in expenses because if you look at the large banks, they need to spend first to start seeing the benefits. Could you unpack that a bit for us?

你們——這是擺在桌面上的所有事情嗎，客戶體驗、成本節約、風險緩解，你們有考慮過所有事情嗎？如果你願意，那麼如果你能支付這些費用並且沒有看到費用增加，那真是太神奇了，因為如果你看看大型銀行，他們需要先花錢才能開始看到收益。您能為我們解釋一下嗎？

Yeah. Everything is on the table, and we are bullish on long-term value creation from AI and agentic AI. But there's some tried and true things in the pool program, too, that will help self-fund part of the journey that aren't necessarily kind of the new modern technology-led initiatives like vendor simplification at a broader scale with much more of a strategic lens, taking a look at how the company is structured from a real estate standpoint.

是的。一切都擺在桌面上，我們看好人工智慧和代理人工智慧創造的長期價值。但是，資金池計畫中也有一些經過驗證的方法，可以幫助企業自行籌措部分資金，而這些方法不一定是新的現代技術主導的舉措，例如更廣泛範圍內的供應商簡化，更具戰略眼光，從房地產的角度審視公司的結構。

There's a lot of other more traditional things that we've -- hygiene cleaned up on the various TOP initiatives, and now we're going to take an even bigger step back. So it will be a myriad of things. And so our hope is -- and this is what we're going to scope out through the summer period -- that we can sequence all these investments in a way that has -- smart and logical and have some quick wins that can maybe supplement some of the ideas that take a longer time.

我們已經在各種 TOP 計劃中清理了許多其他更傳統的事情——衛生問題，現在我們將採取更大的退步。所以將會有無數的事情發生。因此，我們的希望是——這也是我們將在夏季確定的範圍——我們能夠以一種聰明而合乎邏輯的方式對所有這些投資進行排序，並取得一些快速的成果，這些成果或許可以補充一些需要更長時間的想法。

But the reason we're having a much longer window in this TOP versus the other TOP is that some of these initiatives do take a little bit more time for the ship to come. And we want to take that medium-term, longer-term lens on this. So we're planting right seeds, not just to impact the next year or two, but impact the next three to five years. So it's a big -- I think a big difference in how we're approaching this program that allows us to be a lot more strategic.

但是，與其他 TOP 相比，我們在這款 TOP 中設定的時間窗口更長的原因是，其中一些舉措確實需要更多的時間才能讓船隻到達。我們希望從中期和長期角度來看待這個問題。因此，我們播下正確的種子，不僅是為了影響未來一兩年，也是為了影響未來三到五年。所以，我認為，我們在處理這個專案的方式上有很大不同，這讓我們能夠更具策略性。

Yeah. And I would just add also that the pace of innovation in this space, particularly around agentic is really mind-boggling. So when you look back six months ago and where was this and how ready for purpose were some of these solutions to kind of where are they today? And I know, Brendan, you just spent a day with a bunch of fintechs and start-ups to try to look at this and kick the tires a little harder, but it's quite dramatic.

是的。我還要補充一點，這個領域的創新速度，特別是在代理商領域，確實令人難以置信。那麼，當你回顧六個月前的情況時，這些解決方案當時的用途如何，而現在它們又處於什麼位置？我知道，布倫丹，你剛剛花了一天時間與一群金融科技公司和新創公司一起研究這個問題，並對其進行更深入的研究，但這相當引人注目。

And so the big banks may be spending a lot of money and doing some kind of pioneer work though I think they'll be kind of more ready-made turnkey solutions available that hopefully we can take advantage of.

因此，大型銀行可能會投入大量資金並進行某種開創性工作，但我認為他們會提供更多現成的交鑰匙解決方案，希望我們能夠利用這些解決方案。

John Pancari, Evercore.

約翰‧潘卡里 (John Pancari)，Evercore。

Morning. Just want to ask a little bit around competitive dynamics. You have a couple of peers out there citing some intensifying competition. We've heard both a bit on the loan pricing side as well as on deposits. And so I just want to see if you can give us a little bit more color what you're seeing there in terms of on the deposit side, your confidence in your data expectations? And are you seeing any of that pressure?

早晨。只是想問一些有關競爭動態的問題。一些同行指出競爭正在加劇。我們聽到了一些有關貸款定價和存款的消息。因此，我只是想看看您是否可以給我們更多有關您在存款方面所看到的情況以及您對數據預期的信心？您是否感受到了這種壓力？

And then on the loan pricing side, specifically as you see some acceleration in loan growth and your strategies there, are you seeing some intensifying competition from banks and non-banks?

然後在貸款定價方面，具體來說，當您看到貸款成長和您的策略有所加速時，您是否看到來自銀行和非銀行的競爭日益激烈？

Let's start with Don on commercial.

讓我們先從商業上的唐開始。

Yeah. So John, yes, the answer is, it's competitive out there. It's always competitive. But I think our secret sauce and what we're trying to do is stay focused on multi-product relationships with mid-sized companies, and we've carved out a niche. And I think we've got an incredibly strong delivery model, which allows us not to just think about making loans or gathering deposits, but doing a multitude of things with our customers, and that's what we've tried to build over the last 10 years.

是的。所以約翰，是的，答案是，那裡競爭激烈。競爭總是激烈的。但我認為我們的秘訣和我們正在努力做的是專注於與中型公司的多產品關係，並且我們已經開闢了一個利基市場。我認為我們擁有非常強大的交付模式，這使得我們不只考慮發放貸款或收集存款，還可以與客戶一起做很多事情，這就是我們在過去 10 年裡一直努力打造的。

And it's interesting, the teams that we've hired in Florida and California have said the same thing to me, which is, wow, the way we're showing up as a company across product and industry expertise and core banking is so different than my old firm showed up. And it's becoming the differentiator of trying to -- being able to win business and win broad wallet relationships with people.

有趣的是，我們在佛羅裡達州和加利福尼亞州僱用的團隊都對我說了同樣的話，那就是，哇，我們作為一家公司在產品和行業專業知識以及核心銀行業務方面的表現與我以前的公司如此不同。它正在成為嘗試的差異化因素——能夠贏得業務並與人們建立廣泛的錢包關係。

I mean we're never going to make a lot of money lending money to a company. It's about everything else we do with that company. So that's the way we try to make the market.

我的意思是，我們永遠不會透過借錢給一家公司賺很多錢。這與我們與該公司所做的其他一切有關。這就是我們嘗試開拓市場的方式。

And I've never been in a situation in my 41 years of doing this where I haven't had a ton of competition. And you just got to be day to day, more focused and day to day, better to create the kind of relationships that you want to bring on to the balance sheet and then also pass on the things where you're not going to make a lot of money where it's just a price gain. And that's what BSO has been about for us.

在我從事這一行的 41 年裡，我從來沒有遇到過沒有大量競爭的情況。你必須日復一日地更加專注，更好地建立你想要在資產負債表上體現的那種關係，然後放棄那些你不會賺很多錢的東西，因為那隻是價格上漲。這就是 BSO 對我們所做的貢獻。

So we're really trying to rotate capital to where we can build those enduring relationships and not good so far so good and the whole -- if you look at private credit, which is what a lot of people like to talk about, we're now bankers to the private credit complex, and we've created an amazing business banking to private credit complex that actually is in a very equivalent way replacing our leverage finance kind of fee stream and our leverage finance earnings stream with a much more attractive earning asset on the private credit side of things.

因此，我們確實在嘗試將資本轉移到可以建立持久關係的地方，到目前為止情況並不好，總體而言 - 如果你看一下私人信貸，這是很多人喜歡談論的，我們現在是私人信貸綜合體的銀行家，我們已經創建了一個令人驚嘆的商業銀行到私人信貸綜合體，實際上，它以一種非常等效的方式取代了我們的槓桿費用流和資產槓桿費用

So trying to stay ahead of the trends and trying to stay smart about where the market is going and then having your delivery costs being reasonable, which is what Brendan is going to try to lead in terms of Reimagining the Bank is really the name of the game. How do you generate good earning assets and good deposit growth with a reasonable expense base?

因此，努力保持領先趨勢，努力了解市場走向，然後保持合理的交付成本，這就是布倫丹在重新構想銀行方面試圖引領的，這才是真正的遊戲名稱。如何在合理的支出基礎上創造良好的獲利資產和良好的存款成長？

Same things on my businesses. I'd say it is really intense. It's always been intense. I think it's largely been unchanged recently. There's a lot of competition out there. There's always some irrational folks pricing out there.

我的生意也面臨同樣的情況。我想說這真的很激烈。它一直很激烈。我認為最近它基本上沒有變化。那裡競爭非常激烈。總是有一些不合理的人定價。

We're spending a little bit more time on is if rates pull back, how do we play that? And do some competitors play it a little bit more irrationally on the deposit side and hold serve for a while to gain deposits and deteriorate margins or chase the market down really fast on lending. We'll see what happens. But right now, we're competing well in a really intense market.

我們花了更多時間思考，如果利率回落，我們該如何應對？一些競爭對手是否會在存款方面採取更加不理性的做法，在一段時間內保持服務以獲取存款並降低利潤率，或者在貸款方面迅速追逐市場。我們將拭目以待。但目前，我們在激烈的市場競爭中表現出色。

When it's relationship-led, to Don's point, you tend to have a little bit more flex in yield pricing on both sides, deposits and lending. If you've got truly the primary banking relationship, you don't have to be the very best. That helps a lot as we re-grounded the franchise and deep relationship-based banking both in retail and private banking.

正如唐所說，當以關係為主導時，存款和貸款雙方的收益定價往往會更加靈活。如果您確實擁有主要的銀行關係，那麼您不必是最好的。這對於我們在零售銀行和私人銀行領域重新建立特許經營和深度關係銀行業務有很大幫助。

And the one thing you can count on us on is being return focused. So we're not going to chase the market down. If competitive dynamics get super intense, we'll make sure we're doing the right thing for capital allocation and the right returns. We're very committed to -- on private as an example -- to have a 20% to 24% return profile. So we're going to stick to our guns there, price loans and deposits that we believe is appropriate for market conditions.

而您可以信賴我們的一件事就是我們注重回報。所以我們不會追逐市場。如果競爭變得異常激烈，我們將確保採取正確的措施進行資本配置並獲得正確的回報。以私人投資為例，我們非常致力於實現 20% 至 24% 的回報率。因此，我們將堅持我們的立場，對貸款和存款進行我們認為適合市場條件的定價。

And then we'll have to compete and win on relationships. And we're doing that so far, and I don't expect that to change.

然後我們必須在關係上競爭並取得勝利。到目前為止，我們一直在這樣做，我預計這種情況不會改變。

Just two quick items here just to add on top of that. One is spreads are holding in. We're holding our discipline on the commercial lending side of things and returns in retail and consumer look good.

這裡只需簡單新增兩個項目即可。一是利差正在維持。我們在商業貸款方面保持紀律，零售和消費者的回報看起來不錯。

On the deposit side, we've had this outlook of low- to mid-50s cumulative beta over the medium term and already through the end of the second quarter. We're at 54%, which is better than median, better than average and a really strong performance so far this cycle. And we have all of the -- all of the foundation and mindset is there to continue that performance over the medium term.

在存款方面，我們預計中期和第二季末的累積貝塔值將在 50 到 55 之間。我們的比率為 54%，高於中位數，高於平均水平，是本週期迄今為止的強勁表現。我們擁有所有的基礎和心態，可以在中期內繼續保持這種表現。

Maybe one more point. I think we've made this on other calls that we've had probably a little bit more levers than some of the other peers when you think about Citizens Access and now the private bank. So depending on how competitive dynamics flex across all the segments, we can capitalize where there's better ground.

也許還有一點。我認為我們在其他電話會議上也提到過這一點，當你想到公民訪問和現在的私人銀行時，我們可能比其他一些同行擁有更多的槓桿。因此，根據各個細分市場的競爭動態，我們可以利用更有利的條件。

Okay. Great. And then Bruce, just curious on your updated thoughts around the M&A backdrop. We've seen some -- a resumption of deals amid the regional banks. Just wanted to get your thoughts there. And I know you've kind of implied that over time, if you get -- you've got to work towards your results and then that will drive a multiple in your stock and everything.

好的。偉大的。然後布魯斯，我只是好奇你對併購背景的最新想法。我們已經看到一些地區性銀行恢復了交易。只是想了解你的想法。我知道你已經暗示過，隨著時間的推移，如果你得到了——你必須努力實現你的目標，那麼這將推動你的股票和一切的倍數成長。

And just curious how you see citizens as being a potential player in the wave of consolidation that we could see.

我很好奇您如何看待公民作為我們所看到的整合浪潮中的潛在參與者。

Yeah. So I think nothing's really changed there, notwithstanding a small deal that was announced last week. But our focus right now is driving this organic growth. We have a huge opportunity here to get our ROTCE back where we'd like it to be to capture that white space that First Republic vacated and build up our private bank and private wealth business and really drive the growth in the New York City Metro market that is sitting there in front of us to execute on. So I want to not get distracted and make sure that job one is to continue to drive great execution and drive the ROTCE higher.

是的。因此我認為，儘管上周宣布了一項小協議，但實際上並沒有什麼改變。但我們現在的重點是推動這種有機成長。我們有一個巨大的機會讓我們的 ROTCE 回到我們希望的位置，以抓住第一共和銀行騰出的空白空間，建立我們的私人銀行和私人財富業務，並真正推動我們面前的紐約市地鐵市場的增長。所以我不想分心，確保首要任務是繼續推動出色的執行並提高 ROTCE。

I have said, though, if there's a really attractive opportunity down the road, I have total confidence in this leadership team and our ability to integrate that and execute on that. But you'd have to be a pretty high bar to make sure that you had the financials, the strategic, the cultural fit in order to go do something. But I think that's more kind of down the road than it is imminently.

不過，我已經說過，如果未來真的有一個有吸引力的機會，我對這個領導團隊以及我們整合和執行該機會的能力充滿信心。但你必須設定一個相當高的標準，以確保你擁有財務、策略和文化契合度，才能去做某件事。但我認為這更像是一種未來的事情，而不是即將發生的事情。

Manon Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

曼農‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Hey. Good morning, all. Had a quick question on credit. Given that the office reserve was down about 50 basis points, can you update us on what you're seeing in the space? And I guess, if things are improving, how are you thinking about managing that reserve and the overall ACL over the next few quarters?

嘿。大家早安。我有一個關於信用的簡短問題。鑑於辦公室儲備下降了約 50 個基點，您能否向我們介紹您在該領域看到的情況？我想，如果情況有所改善，您打算如何管理未來幾季的儲備和整體 ACL？

You want to start, John?

你想開始嗎，約翰？

Yeah. I'll just go and start off there. Thanks for the question. We're seeing some really good trends in credit, as you saw in some of our results, broadly charge-offs being down from last quarter to this and expect it to be down again. So you've got to -- we're keeping an eye on that, but the trends look good. Non-accrual trends look very good.

是的。我就從那裡出發。謝謝你的提問。我們看到信貸方面出現了一些非常好的趨勢，正如您在我們的一些結果中所看到的那樣，從上個季度到現在，沖銷額總體上有所下降，預計還會再次下降。所以你必須——我們正在密切關注這一點，但趨勢看起來不錯。非應計趨勢看起來非常好。

And lastly, as you're asking about -- with respect to general office, I mean this is -- I think the thing to keep an eye on it is the dollar amount of reserves that we're allocating to this book. We are down this quarter, about $30 million or so. That rate will jump around a little bit, but this is the first quarter where we're really charging off against the reserve and don't feel the need to re-provide for those charge-offs that reflects some expectation of stability and valuations as well as an understanding and an outlook with respect to the probability of default that are all -- feel well controlled and refenced at this stage.

最後，正如您所問的 - 關於一般辦公室，我的意思是 - 我認為需要關注的是我們分配給這本書的儲備金額。本季我們虧損了約 3000 萬美元左右。這個比率會稍微波動，但這是我們真正沖銷儲備金的第一個季度，我們不認為需要重新提供這些沖銷，這反映了對穩定性和估值的某種預期，以及對違約機率的理解和展望——在現階段感覺得到了很好的控制和參考。

So that's been a big level of uncertainty that we have a sense here maybe starting to get behind us. We've had peak credit losses are behind us. We believe, for this cycle, as well as I think we mentioned peak in non-accrual. So I think that is all trending well.

因此，我們感覺到，這是一個很大的不確定性，但這種不確定性可能已經開始消退了。我們已經經歷了信貸損失的高峰。我們相信，對於這個週期，我認為我們提到了非應計峰值。所以我認為一切都朝著好的方向發展。

And I think the last thing to keep in mind is our front book/back book. So as we're running off other areas of the book, such as CRE outside of general office, most of the front book has a lower provision and ACL need compared to what's getting runoff, including in non-core.

我認為最後要記住的是我們的封面/封底。因此，當我們執行帳簿的其他領域時，例如總辦公室以外的 CRE，與正在運行的帳簿（包括非核心帳簿）相比，大多數前端帳簿的撥備和 ACL 需求較低。

So a lot of those trends would be consistent with coverage levels being adequate now and possibly some opportunity to moderate that over time as long as the macro holds in. So just to wrap it all up, a lot of really solid tailwinds on the credit side and feeling like that looks good for the rest of the year.

因此，許多趨勢都與目前足夠的覆蓋水準一致，只要宏觀經濟保持不變，隨著時間的推移，可能會有一些緩和的機會。總而言之，信貸方面確實存在著許多強勁的順風因素，感覺今年剩餘時間的前景良好。

Don, you want to add anything on office?

唐，你想在辦公室添加一些東西嗎？

No. I'd just say that I don't think we've moved a office property into our workout group in the last year. So the problem children who are going through the workout process and where we've got the reserves put up are well identified and well through their restructuring process. And the rest of the book, there's some good tailwinds in terms of the office environment in different cities across the country, notably New York City, which is quite strong.

不。我只是想說，我認為我們去年沒有將辦公物業搬進我們的健身組。因此，正在經歷重組過程的問題兒童以及我們已投入儲備的兒童已經得到很好的識別，並且他們的重組過程也進展順利。本書的其餘部分介紹了全國不同城市的辦公環境，特別是紐約市，其環境相當良好。

So I think if you go back two or three years from now, we had a lot of uncertainty. Right now, we feel like we've got a really box. We're comfortable with where we've got things reserved, as John said.

所以我認為，如果回顧兩、三年前，我們會發現我們面臨許多不確定性。現在，我們感覺我們真的得到了一個盒子。正如約翰所說，我們對所保留的東西感到滿意。

That's very helpful. And then Bruce, I don't think I heard you talk about stablecoin when you spoke about reimagining the bank initiative. Is that an area of focus? And if that is, how are you thinking about the investments there? And in general, what impact do you think that will have on the bank -- ?

這非常有幫助。然後布魯斯，當你談到重新構想銀行計劃時，我認為我沒有聽到你談論穩定幣。這是一個重點領域嗎？如果是的話，您如何看待在那裡的投資？總的來說，您認為這會對銀行產生什麼影響-- ？

Yeah. I wouldn't put that under the umbrella of Reimagining the Bank. I think that's more kind of an initiative for us to develop under kind of our overall payments business and payment strategy. And I think it's got a lot of buzz right now, and there's some potential use cases that may ultimately establish themselves and cross-border payments is one everybody is talking about, but we're certainly monitoring developments there.

是的。我不會將其歸類為「重塑銀行」的範疇。我認為這更像是我們在整體支付業務和支付策略下發展的一種舉措。我認為它現在引起了很多關注，並且有一些潛在的用例可能最終會自行確立，而跨境支付是每個人都在談論的，但我們肯定會關注這方面的發展。

We see -- you always want to make sure that you're capturing opportunities and minimizing risks when you see these trends develop. But I think we've got smart people looking at these things. We're talking to our customers. We want to be there to serve our customers.

我們看到—當您看到這些趨勢發展時，您總是希望確保抓住機會並盡量降低風險。但我認為我們有聰明的人在關注這些事情。我們正在與客戶交談。我們希望能夠為客戶提供服務。

So I think we're positioned well, but I wouldn't call it out as something that in the near term is that dramatic that will have that dramatic of an impact on us. And a lot of times, you're going to look to do these developments in consortium with other banks or leveraging some of your key vendors like Fiserv. And so we're looking at all of that. But I don't think there's a significant investment that's staring us in the face at this point.

所以我認為我們處於有利地位，但我不會說這會在短期內對我們產生如此巨大的影響。很多時候，您會尋求與其他銀行聯合進行這些開發，或利用一些主要供應商，例如 Fiserv。所以我們正在關注這一切。但我認為目前我們還沒有面臨重大投資。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥格拉蒂，KBW。

Great. Thanks for putting me in. Bruce, on capital allocation broadly, given the momentum you have in your capital markets business, is there a case to be made to be upping capital to these businesses? Anywhere you'd like to lean in a little bit more?

偉大的。謝謝你讓我加入。布魯斯，關於資本配置，鑑於您在資本市場業務中的發展勢頭，是否有理由增加這些業務的資本？您想在哪方面再多傾斜一點？

I think it's more of an OpEx question than a capital question. And so we've been adding coverage bankers in key industry verticals and corporate finance specialists. And so we'll continue to do that. We've added coverage bankers in the middle market, as Don mentioned, in some of the expansion areas building out New York Metro and investing in Florida and California. So a lot of this is people costs.

我認為這更多的是營運支出問題，而不是資本問題。因此，我們一直在增加關鍵產業垂直領域的銀行家和企業財務專家。因此我們會繼續這樣做。正如唐所提到的那樣，我們在中端市場增加了覆蓋銀行家，在一些擴張區域建造紐約地鐵並在佛羅裡達州和加利福尼亞州進行投資。其中很大一部分是人力成本。

I think we have good capital allocation to do the business that we focus on and underwriting limits, et cetera, for a bank our size that are prudent. I think it would be a mistake potentially to say, well, let's just take more swings and raise that capital limit and do bigger deals. We tend to run into the big boys as we move up market, and we also want to stay prudent in terms of the risk we're willing to take and making sure that we stay granular. So I'd say probably no in terms of additional capital.

我認為，對於我們這樣規模的銀行來說，我們有良好的資本配置來開展我們專注的業務，並且承保限額等等，這些都是審慎的。我認為，這樣說可能是錯的，好吧，讓我們採取更多行動，提高資本限額，做更大的交易。當我們進入高端市場時，我們往往會遇到大公司，我們也希望在願意承擔的風險方面保持謹慎，並確保我們保持細緻。因此，就額外資本而言，我認為可能不會。

We could continue to see some loan growth in terms of the sponsors that we cover. We might broaden that universe a little bit. So that might be one place that we earmark a little bit of capital. But mostly right now, it's about OpEx and making sure we have really great people lined up with where we see the best opportunities.

就我們所涵蓋的贊助商而言，我們可以繼續看到一些貸款成長。我們或許可以稍微拓寬一下這個宇宙。因此，這可能是我們撥出少量資金的地方。但現在最重要的是營運支出，並確保我們擁有真正優秀的人才，並能提供最佳機會。

Yeah. I think that's right. And I think where you'll see us over index is probably building depth and industry specialization, as Bruce said, in terms of our corporate finance teams. I think we've got plenty of talent on our core underwriting desks and our core capital markets businesses, and we don't feel capital constrained at all for the business that we're trying to undertake.

是的。我認為那是對的。我認為，正如布魯斯所說，就我們的企業財務團隊而言，您可能會看到我們在指數方面建立深度和行業專業化。我認為我們的核心承銷部門和核心資本市場業務擁有大量人才，而且我們並不認為我們正在嘗試開展的業務受到任何資本限制。

We have a good complement of M&A professionals as well. And so --

我們也擁有一群優秀的併購專業人士。所以--

A lot of that doesn't take capital, right? So that's pure advisory.

其中很多都不需要資本，對吧？所以這只是純粹的建議。

If we were adding to that, it would maybe be to complement industry verticals. If we go out and buy another boutique, it might be a place where we think we're a little short and we could benefit from some expertise. But I don't see a huge amount taking place there either.

如果我們進一步完善這一點，那麼也許可以補充行業垂直領域。如果我們出去購買另一家精品店，我們可能會認為我們在這方面還有些不足，但我們可以從一些專業知識中受益。但我也沒有看到那裡發生大量的事情。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then the follow-up, the comments about charge-offs peaking likely in the first quarter in NPLs, last third, if I separate the office discussion, which you just handled, anything notable to call out in terms of inflows or inflow reversals over the last couple of quarters that give you confidence in those numbers? Thanks.

好的。我很感激。然後是後續問題，關於壞帳沖銷可能在第一季度達到峰值的評論，如果我將您剛才處理的辦公室討論分開，那麼在過去幾個季度中，在流入或流入逆轉方面有什麼值得注意的事情讓您對這些數字充滿信心？謝謝。

Yeah. No, things are playing out as expected very nicely. And so I think the macro stability -- we were a little conservative with the macro this quarter. So I think we're well positioned for any uncertainties going forward with respect to tariffs or unemployment, which we actually raised to touch in the second quarter, but to remain conservative on that outlook.

是的。不，事情正如預期的那樣順利進行。因此我認為宏觀穩定性——本季我們對宏觀政策有點保守。因此，我認為我們已做好充分準備應對未來關稅或失業等不確定因素，我們實際上已在第二季度上調了對這些因素的預期，但對這一前景仍持保守態度。

But when it comes to the back book performance, it's actually playing out as expected. And next quarter, we expect charge-offs to be down slightly as we mentioned. So yeah, nothing to really call out.

但就後續表現而言，它實際上正如預期的那樣。正如我們所提到的，我們預計下個季度的沖銷額將略有下降。是的，沒什麼好說的。

And I think part of that is just our risk appetite and where we focus our strategy. So in consumer, we're focused more on mass affluent and affluent is our sweet spot. So we have kind of less exposure to the mass customer who is the first segment to get stretched. And so you don't see any trends in our delinquencies or anything concerning at all.

我認為部分原因在於我們的風險偏好以及我們的策略重點。因此，在消費者方面，我們更重視大眾富裕階層，而富裕階層是我們的最佳選擇。因此，我們對大眾客戶的接觸較少，而大眾客戶是第一個受到壓力的群體。因此，您根本看不到我們的拖欠趨勢或任何令人擔憂的事情。

And then again, on the corporate side, we've moved up market a little bit, and we've grown kind of the upper end of middle market and mid-corporate, and those tend to be a bit stronger credits as well. And so we don't really see any hotspots across --

再說一次，在企業方面，我們已經稍微向高端市場邁進了一步，我們已經發展成為中端市場和中型企業的高端，而這些企業的信用也往往更強一些。所以我們實際上沒有看到任何熱點--

And where we do have riskier exposures like leverage finance, we're highly diversified with very small holes. We distribute 90% of those transactions. So our average hold is like $12 million. And the overall -- that overall book has been declining over the last couple of years. So we have a very kind of well-developed distribution strategy to make sure it doesn't stick to our balance sheet.

儘管我們確實有槓桿融資等風險較高的曝險，但我們的多元化程度很高，漏洞很小。我們負責分配其中 90% 的交易。所以我們的平均持有量是 1200 萬美元。總體而言——過去幾年來，這本書的整體銷售量一直在下降。因此，我們有一個非常完善的分銷策略，以確保它不會束縛於我們的資產負債表。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

史考特·西佛斯、派珀·桑德勒。

Hey. Thanks, guys. I think most of my questions have been answered. I did want to ask, Bruce and Brendan, how does the private bank buildout look after we get past this year after you hit the $12 billion in deposits, $7 billion in loan, and $11 billion in assets under management target?

嘿。謝謝大家。我想我的大部分問題都已經得到解答了。我確實想問一下，布魯斯和布倫丹，在你們達到 120 億美元的存款、70 億美元的貸款和 110 億美元的管理資產目標之後，今年私人銀行的建設情況會如何？

Will we kind of be -- you've talked about the white space. So presumably, there's much more to do. But is there a point where we get to toward more of a critical mass where profitability kind of gets the flywheel upon itself or will we continue to add more teams at a similar pace to the last year or so?

我們會不會—您談到了空白。因此，想必還有很多事情要做。但是，我們是否會達到一個臨界點，即盈利能力能夠自行提升，還是我們將繼續以與去年類似的速度增加更多團隊？

Yeah. Let me start and, Brendan, you can offer some color. But I think it was really important when we initiated this start-up that we put some markers out there and we stayed disciplined and we demonstrated that we could grow this business in a prudent fashion, in a sustainable fashion profitably and that we would generate good returns.

是的。讓我開始吧，布倫丹，你可以提供一些細節。但我認為，當我們創辦這家新創公司時，真正重要的是我們要樹立一些目標，保持紀律，並證明我們能夠以審慎的方式、可持續的方式發展這項業務並實現盈利，並且能夠產生良好的回報。

So we've felt that discipline. We've made -- and partly it also makes sense because there's a lot to build in support before you really turn the crank. You want to make sure you've got the service levels and the systems and the customer interfaces at the right level. So that all came together saying that we're going to kind of grow gradually through 2025 once we hit those markers, which we expect to do. Then where do you go from there?

所以我們感受到了這種紀律。我們已經做到了——而且這在某種程度上也是有道理的，因為在真正開始行動之前，還有很多工作需要建立支持。您要確保您擁有正確的服務等級、系統和客戶介面。所以，綜合起來看，一旦我們達到這些目標，到 2025 年，我們就會逐步實現成長，這也是我們期望做到的。那麼接下來你要去哪裡呢？

And I think continuing to add more private banking teams in attractive locations is part of the equation, opening more private bank offices that are kind of attractive ground level facilities -- we just opened one this week in New York City. You can go in for a cookie in 52nd and 6th -- on the corner of 52nd and 6th. It's an awesome showcase for the private banks. So we'll be doing more of that.

我認為繼續在有吸引力的地點增加更多的私人銀行團隊是其中的一部分，開設更多私人銀行辦事處，這些辦事處是一種有吸引力的基層設施——我們本週剛在紐約市開設了一家。您可以去 52 街和 6 街的拐角處買一塊餅乾——52 街和 6 街的拐角處。對於私人銀行來說，這是一個絕佳的展示機會。因此我們將會做更多這樣的事。

We're ramping up the wealth teams so we can have kind of a better solutions set for folks' both banking needs and their wealth needs as well. And so I would expect that to continue, but if you go out three to five years, this can grow quite a bit from being, 5% to 6% accretive to the bottom line. It can easily scale up from there, and I think we can do it profitably. So Brendan?

我們正在擴大財富團隊，以便為人們的銀行需求和財富需求提供更好的解決方案。因此我預計這種情況會持續下去，但如果你再過三到五年，這個數字可能會大幅增長，從 5% 到 6% 不等。它可以輕鬆地從那裡擴大規模，而且我認為我們可以盈利地做到這一點。那麼布倫丹？

Yeah. The only thing I would add is that it's incredibly important to us that we stay true to the financial guardrails we put in place in terms of having this be -- the loan growth be driven by, first, securing high-quality funding, and that will be a governor on our growth that we don't get out over our skis, and that we have this be a financial profile that has return accretion to the franchise versus dilution. So those things are heavy considerations.

是的。我唯一想補充的是，對我們來說，極其重要的是，我們要忠於我們制定的財務護欄——貸款增長首先要由獲得高質量的資金來驅動，這將是我們增長的控制因素，我們不會失去控制，而且我們的財務狀況是特許經營的回報增長而不是稀釋。所以這些事情都是需要認真考慮的。

Having said that, I agree with everything Bruce said. The opportunity is still very big. And as we consider growth, it ties a little bit into the Reimagining the Bank. If we can self-fund the journey, maybe we'll go a little faster. But we're going to stay very true to the value proposition in the guardrail.

話雖如此，我同意布魯斯所說的一切。機會還是很大的。當我們考慮成長時，它與重新構想銀行有一點聯繫。如果我們能夠自費旅行，也許我們會走得更快一些。但我們將堅持護欄的價值主張。

We believe there's a white space in the integration of banking and wealth. And so we need talent that believes that too and can scale. And we certainly have other markets that we operate in today in retail and commercial that we're not yet in in private banking that are great markets for us to round out our full bank proposition and plant a private banking flag as well as sort of some of the newer markets like Florida and California still provide a lot of running room for growth.

我們認為銀行業務和財富管理的融合仍有空白。因此，我們也需要相信這一點並且能夠擴展的人才。當然，我們目前在零售和商業領域還有其他市場，而我們還沒有進入私人銀行業務，這些市場對於我們完善整個銀行業務並樹立私人銀行旗幟來說都是很好的市場，而且佛羅裡達州和加利福尼亞州等一些較新的市場仍然提供了很大的增長空間。

So right now, we're focused on delivering the year. But we definitely see opportunity for sustained growth into the future in '26 and beyond.

因此現在，我們專注於實現全年目標。但我們確實看到了 2026 年及以後持續成長的機會。

So we'll give you more color on that actually when we get to the January guide and we talk about 2026, but I'd like to be leaning forward as early as next year to actually continue to scale it up.

因此，當我們進入 1 月份指南並討論 2026 年時，我們會為您提供更多詳細信息，但我希望最早在明年就開始向前邁進，以便繼續擴大規模。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Good morning. Appreciate the call has gone on too long. Just a couple of quick follow-ups. One, in terms of outlook for deposit costs, it feels like CDs still have some room to go. But then we saw the checking account rates move up quarter over quarter. So just wondering if we don't get any rate cuts, John, are deposit costs still trending lower through the second half of the year?

早安.感謝通話持續了很長時間。只需進行一些快速的跟進。首先，從存款成本前景來看，感覺存單仍有上升空間。但隨後我們發現支票帳戶利率逐季上升。所以我只是想知道如果我們不降息，約翰，存款成本在今年下半年是否仍呈下降趨勢？

Yeah. You may have heard from Brendan, that we had a nice rotation in the CD book. There was about $8 billion that matured in the second quarter that we're actually rotating into much lower-cost CDs that are 120 to 150 basis points below where the maturity rates are. So the really nice front book/back book there.

是的。您可能已經從布倫丹那裡聽說了，我們的 CD 書輪換得很好。我們實際上將第二季到期的約 80 億美元資金轉為成本低得多的 CD，這些 CD 比到期利率低 120 至 150 個基點。所以這本書的封面/封底確實很美。

It steps down a tiny bit in the third quarter, so down a touch, maybe in the neighborhood of $6 billion in maturity, but still a really nice tailwind for that front book/back book. And there's still more in the fourth quarter. So I think we have got we've got nice benefit to be able to have the opportunity on the deposit side.

第三季度，這一數字略有下降，大概在 60 億美元左右，但對於前帳/後帳來說，這仍然是一個非常好的順風。第四季還有更多內容。因此我認為我們在存款方面擁有這個機會，這對我們來說是很大的優勢。

I think as I mentioned earlier, keeping an eye on our deposit -- our cumulative deposit beta where we performed quite well, we're at 54% for the end of the second quarter. That's better than average. And we feel very, very good about deposit cost for the rest of the year based on not only interest-bearing costs themselves, but also some opportunities to stabilize and improve the mix.

我想正如我之前提到的，密切關注我們的存款——我們的累計存款貝塔值表現相當不錯，第二季末達到了 54%。這比平均水平要好。我們對今年剩餘時間的存款成本感到非常樂觀，這不僅基於利息成本本身，還基於一些穩定和改善組合的機會。

Got it. Just one quick one for you, Don. When we think about the lending outlook -- I'm not sure if you addressed this -- any sign -- any uptick on the sponsor-led side? Anything about capital call line lending? Are you seeing any pick-up there, and how much of that's kind of baked in for the back half? Thanks.

知道了。唐，我只想告訴你一個問題。當我們考慮貸款前景時——我不確定您是否提到了這一點——有任何跡象——發起人主導的貸款方面有任何上升趨勢嗎？有關於資本調用額度貸款的資訊嗎？您是否看到那裡有任何回升，其中有多少是後半部分所體現的？謝謝。

Yeah. We've seen about an 8% increase in capital call utilization in the second quarter. So that drove a little bit of our loan growth in general. And the trending I heard from the team yesterday is they continue to expect further growth in utilization as we get it.

是的。我們看到第二季資本調用利用率增加了約 8%。總體而言，這在一定程度上推動了我們的貸款成長。我昨天從團隊那裡聽到的趨勢是，他們繼續預期利用率將進一步成長。

We're not adding a lot of new capital call lines, but we're just seeing utilization revert to normal, and we're about 6 points below our long-term average utilization in our capital call line.

我們沒有增加很多新的資本調用額度，但我們看到利用率恢復正常，我們的資本調用額度利用率比長期平均利用率低約 6 個百分點。

So you've seen the deal announcements going on out there. Capital call lines get driven by not the deals we're doing, but obviously by the broad activity of the PE complex. And they're beginning to get more active. So we think there's some continued upside in utilization on that side of things.

您已經看到了正在發布的交易公告。資本調用線不是由我們正在進行的交易驅動的，而顯然是由 PE 綜合體的廣泛活動所驅動的。他們開始變得更加活躍。因此我們認為，從這方面來看，利用率還有持續上升的空間。

I think that's our last question. Great. Before I leave, I just want to take the opportunity to thank John Woods for his contribution along our transformation journey. It's been great working with you, John. And anyway, we wish you well on your next chapter.

我想這是我們的最後一個問題。偉大的。在我離開之前，我只想藉此機會感謝約翰伍茲在我們轉型過程中所做的貢獻。和你一起工作很愉快，約翰。無論如何，我們祝福您在下一篇章中一切順利。

Thank you, Bruce.

謝謝你，布魯斯。

Okay. And with that, let me thank everybody for dialing in today. We appreciate your interest and support. Have a great day.

好的。最後，我要感謝大家今天的來電。我們感謝您的關注與支持。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。